Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-13-22 | Islanders v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. While last season's three meetings between these two teams included two 'under' results, this is actually a surprisingly strong 'over' spot on Tuesday night in Beantown. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 16-8 with the Isles coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 6.4 goals. Likewise, the 'over' is 17-9 with New York coming off four or five losses in its last six games, as is the case here, over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 6.3 goals. Even better still, the 'over' is 8-1 in the Isles last nine games off a home loss, good for an average total of 7.6 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Bruins have had a tendency to let down their guard off big road wins, with the 'over' going 21-9 in their last 30 games following a road victory by two goals or more, leading to an average total of 6.6 goals. The 'over' is also 18-8 in Boston's last 26 contests after holding its last opponent to one goal or less, resulting in an average total of 6.5 goals. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-12-22 | Wolves v. Blazers UNDER 232.5 | Top | 112-133 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday. These two teams combined to score 242 points in the front half of this two-game set in Portland on Saturday. The pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring result, however, with both teams getting off just 83 field goal attempts. Both the Wolves and Blazers shot the lights out in that contest but I expect to see some adjustments made and better defense played in Monday's rematch. Keep in mind, these two teams met four times last season and we didn't see the 'over' hit in consecutive meetings on any occasion. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-10 with the Wolves coming off a loss by six points or less over the last three seasons and has cashed three out of four times it has followed four consecutive games shooting 47% or better from the field over the same stretch. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 17-10 with the Blazers playing at home with a total of 230 points or higher over the last three seasons and 5-1 when coming off a win by six points or less this season. We've seen Portland post consecutive 'over' results on only three previous occasions this season and all three times its next contest stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-11-22 | Browns v. Bengals OVER 47 | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think we see a 'slingshot effect' from the Browns offense here in QB Deshaun Watson's second game back under center following a nearly two-year absence from game action. Watson didn't look good against an awful Texans defense last week, but Cleveland still found a way to manufacture 27 points and I do think that bodes well going forward. This is a game where the Browns likely find themselves playing from behind in which case we should see them open the playbook far more than they did last week against Houston. The Bengals offense figures to smash in this spot as they catch an already struggling Browns defense without key run-stopping LB Sione Takitaki. All indications are that RB Joe Mixon will be back on the field and of course Ja'Marr Chase is back healthy as well, ready to go off on a vulnerable Browns secondary. While division games often lead to tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affairs, that hasn't been the case in this particular matchup, at least not in Cincinnati, where the last four meetings have produced 57, 71, 56 and 55 total points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 52 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 34 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. With Minnesota coming off consecutive 'over' results and Detroit fresh off a high-scoring result of its own last week at home against the Jaguars, I feel this total will prove too high as these two NFC North opponents square off on Sunday afternoon in the Motor City. The Vikings offense really has nowhere to go but down after scoring 60 points combined in consecutive home wins over the Patriots and Jets over the last two weeks. While Detroit's defense was down-trodden earlier in the campaign, this is a unit that has improved as the season has gone on, allowing just 60 points over its last three games combined. Meanwhile, Minnesota has yielded more than 26 points only twice this season with those two poor performances coming in consecutive weeks against the Bills and Cowboys back in November. The Vikes 'D' should be brimming with confidence after saving last week's victory over the Jets with a goal-line stand in the waning seconds. We'll certainly look to fade the Lions offense here after it put up 40 or more points for the second time this season in last week's win over the Jags. The last time Detroit scored 40+ points it followed it up by getting shut out in New England the very next week. While another shutout certainly isn't likely here, I do think both defenses come up with enough stops to keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-08-22 | Raiders -6 v. Rams | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We actually backed the injury-riddled Rams in Kansas City two weeks ago - a game in which they did sniff out an ATS and ultimately delivered a 'push' for most bettors. They followed that up with a loss but cover against the Seahawks last Sunday in a game that featured a misleading final score in my opinion. Were it not for Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker going down to injury early in that contest, I do think Seattle would have run up the score. Note that it scored touchdowns on two of its first three offensive drives before Walker was forced to exit the game and the Seahawks balance disappeared. This Rams defense is a mess without DTs Aaron Donald and A'Shawn Robinson, unable to generate much push or clog up the middle. The Raiders have precisely the type of offense that can expose the L.A. defense with RB Josh Jacobs running as well as anyone in the league, even if he is a little nicked-up (few players are 100% healthy at this stage of the season). With corner Jalen Ramsey having a miserable time on an island on this Rams defense, Raiders WR Davante Adams figures to smash in this spot. In last Sunday's game, Seahawks WRs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf went off, hauling in a combined 17 catches for 255 yards and two scores. The sky is the limit for Adams here. On the flip side, the Raiders defense is rounding into form at the right time with the duo of Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby terrorizing opposing offensive lines. Of course, the Rams boast one of the league's worst o-lines with QB John Wolford absorbing four sacks last week and now dealing with a neck injury, potentially leaving this game in the hands of newly-signed QB Baker Mayfield, who is with his third different team since last season and has had about two days to learn the playbook. While I don't love backing a team that has reeled off three consecutive ATS wins at this stage of the season, I feel we can confidently back the Raiders against a Rams squad that is already looking ahead to next year. Take Las Vegas (10*). |
|||||||
12-07-22 | Rangers +135 v. Golden Knights | Top | 5-1 | Win | 135 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New York over Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rangers 6-4 victory over the Blues on Monday was the type of win that can provide some positive momentum for a team as it heads out on the road for a brief two-game trip. New York appeared headed for its third straight loss before a furious third period rally that saw it score three unanswered goals. That marked the first time in seven games the Blueshirts found the back of the net more than three times. The Golden Knights persevered in a 4-3 shootout win in Boston on Monday. That marked their second straight victory and wrapped up a 3-1 road trip. I think they'll be in tough here against a Rangers squad that has gone 7-5 on the road this season, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals on average. Note that New York is an incredible 12-2 in its last 14 games after losing five or six of its last seven contests, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals on average in that situation. The Knights are a woeful 2-7 in their last nine home games after scoring three or more goals in four consecutive games, outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that spot. Take New York (10*). |
|||||||
12-07-22 | Hawks +2 v. Knicks | Top | 89-113 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I like the setup for this play on Wednesday as the Hawks come off a disappointing home loss as a six-point favorite against the Thunder last time out while the Knicks check in off an outright underdog win over the Cavs on their home floor on Sunday. That was an easy game for New York to get up for after it got throttled at home just over 24 hours earlier against the Mavericks. I suspect it will be a little tougher for the Knicks here, noting that they're still just 3-6 SU and ATS over their last nine contests. Here, we'll note also that the Knicks are 16-22 ATS when coming off an outright underdog win over the last three seasons while the Hawks are 20-17 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the same stretch. Take Atlanta (10*). |
|||||||
12-06-22 | Kings v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams have met three times since the start of last season, including a 3-2 Senators victory in Los Angeles just over a week ago. Of those three games, only one came all that close to going 'over' the total and that was thanks only to an empty-net goal from the Kings in a 4-2 win last season. The lone matchup between them here in Ottawa since the start of last season resulted in a 2-0 Los Angeles victory. The Sens did explode for five goals in their most recent contest but that came against the lowly Sharks. In fact, the only other occasion where Ottawa scored more than three goals over its last eight games came against another of the league's worst teams in the Ducks. Los Angeles will undoubtedly be looking to tighten things up here off a 1-3 homestand. Noting that the 'under' is 25-13 with an average total of just 5.5 goals scored when the Sens play at home after their previous contest totalled seven or more goals, we'll confidently back the 'under' here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-06-22 | Spain v. Morocco +1 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
Knockout Stage Game of the Year. My selection is on Morocco +1 goal over Spain at 10 am et on Tuesday. I think a lot of casual bettors saw all they needed from Spain in its boot-stomping 7-0 rout of Costa Rica two weeks ago. Since then, the Spaniards have managed a draw against Germany and a defeat at the hands of Japan to ultimately finish second in their group, leading to a date with upstart Morocco in the knockout stage on Tuesday. This is likely the matchup that Spain actually wanted - that was evident in its late game activity when trailing against Japan last time out. I do think this could be a 'be careful what you wish for' situation, however, as Morocco can give it trouble in my opinion. Here, we'll note that Morocco in now undefeated in its last nine matches across all competitions. It has successfully put the opposition on its back foot more often than not, striking first in six of its last eight contests. So again, its short-term success in this tournament hasn't been a fluke by any means. Of course, facing Spain is no easy task as it has scored first in five consecutive matches. With that being said, this is a side that has only managed to come away victorious in five of its last 10 contests overall with three of those victories coming by more than a single goal. I believe there's a good chance we see these two sides all square through 90 minutes, similar to what we saw from Japan and Croatia yesterday. But rather than play the 'draw' we'll give due respect to Morocco and catch a little insurance in the process. Take Morocco +1 goal (8*). |
|||||||
12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 41.5 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between New Orleans and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll stick with what works here and call for another low-scoring start between the Saints and Buccaneers on Monday night in Tampa. The first time these two teams met this season they combined to score three, yes three, first half points (New Orleans led 3-0 at the break). In fact, the first half 'under' has gone an incredible 10-1 in all Bucs games this season with the only outlier being a wild, high-scoring affair against the Chiefs in Week 4. New Orleans has scored a grand total of 23 first half points in its last four games combined. You would have to go back six games to find the last time it allowed more than 14 points in the first half and that's only happened three times in 12 games so far this season. As for Tampa Bay, you would have to go back eight games to find the last time it put up more than 14 first half points. In fact, it has been held to 10 or fewer first half points in four of its last five contests. Alvin Kamara is one of the Saints lone weapons on offense and he faces a tough matchup here given the fact that the Bucs have all but stamped out opposing running backs, both on the ground and through the air this season. Only one team has allowed fewer catches to opposing running backs, which is obviously Kamara's bread-and-butter. While the Bucs offense showed signs of life last week in Cleveland, this is still very much an under-achieving group facing a revenge-minded Saints squad on Monday. Tom Brady has posted unremarkable results in three of five career matchups against Dennis Allen-coached defenses and just lost one of his best offensive linemen in Tristan Wirfs to an ankle injury. We'll play the first half 'under' only in this spot given the Saints could turn to QB Jameis Winston for a spark against his old team should Andy Dalton struggle early on. Take the first half under (10*). |
|||||||
12-04-22 | Browns v. Texans OVER 46.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout potential as the Texans look to avenge last year's 31-21 loss to the Browns. We're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in last year's meeting but I don't believe the move is warranted. It has everything to do with the fact that the Texans have been involved in a string of relatively low-scoring games with the 'under' cashing in each of their last three contests. The Browns posted an 'under' result last week as well as they pulled out a 23-17 overtime win over the Bucs. Here, Cleveland's offense figures to get a boost from the return of QB Deshaun Watson. While Watson is dealing with returning from a long layoff, he draws an ideal matchup against a Texans defense that has seen things go from bad to worse. Houston checks in having allowed 29, 24, 23 and 30 points over its last four games, getting ethered by both the pass and the run. The Browns held up alright defensively on paper last week against the Bucs, but this is still a vulnerable unit that doesn't do anything particularly well. The Texans will give QB Kyle Allen another start in place of an ineffective Davis Mills. Allen was at least in sync with WR Nico Collins last Sunday, hitting him on six of nine targets. WR Brandin Cooks is expected to miss this game but that's not necessarily a bad thing as he's been virtually invisible this season. RB Dameon Pierce remains the focal point of the Texans offense and he should bounce back with a full workload after being taken out of the gameplan thanks to Houston trailing big early last week in Miami. The Browns have been touched up for 4.8 yards per rush attempt this season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-04-22 | Browns v. Texans +8 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
AFC Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a game that the Texans have likely been waiting for just as long as the Browns have as Cleveland gives former-Texan Deshaun Watson his long-awaited first start with his new team following a long suspension. This is a prime letdown spot for Cleveland after it pulled out an improbable 23-17 overtime win over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers last Sunday. I'm not ready to start believing in this 4-7 team just yet, however, noting they had lost consecutive games by a combined margin of 30 points prior to that upset victory. Cleveland has won just once on the road this season and that victory came by only two points in Carolina way back in Week 1. Here, the Browns are laying more than a touchdown. Houston is riding a season-high six-game losing streak and has dropped the cash in a season-high three consecutive games as well. I do feel that QB Kyle Allen gives them a better chance to win than Davis Mills at this point. The reality is the offense should run through RB Dameon Pierce and he figures to eat against a Browns defense that has struggled mightily against the run this season. Note that this is also a 'revenge game' for Houston after it dropped a 31-21 decision in Cleveland last year. There are very few spots where I would recommend backing the Texans the rest of the way, but this just happens to be one of them. Take Houston (10*). |
|||||||
12-04-22 | Commanders v. Giants +2.5 | Top | 20-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Commanders have won three games in a row to climb into the playoff conversation in the NFC. I expect a letdown here, however, as they hit the road to face the Giants on Sunday. Washington has benefited from a 7-3 turnover margin in its favor over its last three contests. Here, I can't help but feel we'll see the Giants wreak havoc defensively against Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke, who I do feel has been walking the thin line between success and failure over the last few games. Getting back Evan Neal on the offensive line should pay immediate dividends for Giants RB Saquon Barkley, who has admittedly struggled in recent weeks. Once again, not much will be asked of QB Daniel Jones. The hope here is that he's tasked with playing with a lead rather than from behind as we saw last week against Dallas. Note that Washington is a long-term loser in the role of favorite, going 70-103 ATS. Meanwhile, New York has delivered the cash 11 of the last 13 times it has come off a Thursday game, as is the case here. Take New York (10*). |
|||||||
12-03-22 | Wichita State +7.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 50-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Wichita State plus the points over Kansas State at 9 pm et on Saturday. Kansas State took last year's matchup between these two teams by six points in what turned out to be a sloppy affair with both squads shooting worse than 36% from the field. In what projects to be another relatively low-scoring contest, I believe grabbing the generous helping of points with the underdog Shockers is the right decision. Both teams enter this game off a loss and in the case of Kansas State, it was its first defeat of the young season. I'm not convinced the Wildcats are quite as good as their record indicates. Note that Kansas State is allowing just one fewer made field goal per contest compared to Wichita State this season, despite yielding 12 fewer field goal attempts. In a similar vein, the Wildcats are giving up two fewer made threes per game, but that's on 10 fewer three-point attempts from the opposition. Noting that Wichita State's opponents have made good on just shy of 78% of their free throw attempts this season, there's reason to believe we see some regression to the mean in that department moving forward. Likewise, Kansas State checks in knocking down better than 79% of its free throw attempts - again, some regression is almost certainly in order in that regard. I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as is indicated by the current pointspread, and I don't love the scheduling spot for Kansas State here as it returns home for the first time in over two weeks. Wichita State's lone previous road test went its way as it won by three points as a four-point underdog at Richmond back in mid-November. Take Wichita State (10*). |
|||||||
12-03-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Troy UNDER 48.5 | Top | 26-45 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
Conference Championship Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Troy at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We got precisely the results we wanted out of both of these teams over the last couple of games to set us up exceptionally well with the 'under' in this Sun Belt Conference Championship matchup on Saturday. Both teams saw their last two contests go 'over' the total, not only that, but both were turnover-prone in their respective regular season finale, leading them to perhaps approach this game with a little more caution than they might have otherwise. For Coastal Carolina, there's certainly reason to go ultra-conservative on offense in this game with QB Jarrett Guest struggling since taking over for NFL prospect Grayson McCall. Guest was directly responsible for two turnovers in each of the last two games (his two starts since McCall went down with a season-ending injury). Facing an opportunistic and perennially-tough Troy defense here, the Chanticleers won't want to leave anything to chance, perhaps putting this game largely in the hands of their defense (which is in line for a strong bounce-back effort after a poor performance against James Madison last week). Troy hung 48 points on the scoreboard in last week's rout of hapless Arkansas State. Keep in mind, however, that the Trojans actually didn't reach the end zone for a second time in that game until there were less than five minutes remaining in the third quarter. Like Guest, Troy QB Gunnar Watson has also been mistake-prone tossing an interception to go along with a lost fumble in last week's contest. The Trojans, like the Chanticleers, want to run the football, but will be running into a Coastal Carolina defense that has held up reasonably well against the run this season, allowing 4.0 yards per rush overall and 3.7 away from home. Down the stretch the Chanticleers stiffened up against opposing ground attacks, yielding fewer than 90 rushing yards in three of their last four games. Coastal Carolina has put up 36, 42 and 35 points in winning the last three meetings in this series but they didn't match up in the regular season this year, and we're obviously talking about much different Chanticleers squads, certainly in those games with McCall at the helm of the offense. Noting that Troy has held seven straight opponents to fewer than 20 points but also finds itself in a letdown of sorts offensively off its highest-scoring performance of the season, we'll confidently back the 'under' on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-02-22 | Pelicans v. Spurs UNDER 233 | Top | 117-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Friday. When these two teams met last week they combined to score 239 points as, you guessed it, the Spurs lost and failed to cover, currently mired in a seven-game ATS losing streak. You would have to go back three games to find the last time a San Antonio game stayed 'under' the total while the Pelicans check in off an 'over' result themselves and have played to the 'under' just once in their last four contests. I'll go the contrarian route here, however, noting that we're dealing with a higher posted total than we saw when these teams met on November 23rd. Prior to their last game on Wednesday in Oklahoma City, the Spurs had been doing a good job of at least limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, allowing 85 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight contests. That changed on Wednesday as they yielded 94 FG attempts in the Thunder's come-from-behind victory. I'll chalk that up as a 'game-script' related performance as the Thunder pushed the pace due to the fact they were trailing most of the way. Here, the Pelicans should be able to control proceedings and we'll note that they check in having hoisted up 87 or fewer FG attempts in four straight and six of their last seven games overall. San Antonio's last two opponents have 'shot the lights out' as I like to say, but that actually sets the 'under' up well here, noting that the 'under' has gone 19-8 the last 27 times the Spurs previous two opponents shot 50% or better from the field, resulting in an average total of 221.7 points in that situation. The Pelicans also saw their most recent opponent shoot well, with the Raptors knocking down just shy of 48% of their FG attempts against them on Wednesday. Keep in mind, New Orleans is just one game removed from limiting the Thunder to 34-of-92 (37%) shooting in a game that totalled 'only' 206 points. Finally, I'll note that the Pelicans will be without Brandon Ingram again on Friday as he deals with a toe injury. He contributed 17 points and added 10 assists the last time these two teams met. Meanwhile, the Spurs are dealing with a number of key injuries. Of note, Doug McDermott, currently listed as questionable to play on Friday, poured in 21 points when these two teams matched up last week. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-02-22 | Utah +2.5 v. USC | Top | 47-24 | Win | 103 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over USC at 8 pm et on Friday. USC has every reason to be the more 'motivated' team ahead of this one. After all, it currently resides in the fourth and final spot in the College Football Playoff picture and will be looking to avenge its lone previous loss this season. Motivation only takes you so far, however, and I'm a believer that it shouldn't really play a role in handicapping as it's rarely lost on the betting marketplace. I'll grab the points with Utah here as it looks to defend its Pac-12 Championship and play as spoiler to USC's national title hopes at the same time. The Utes should be nice and warmed up for this contest after shredding through Colorado by a 63-21 score last Saturday. Meanwhile, the Trojans are coming off a win (and cover) in their annual showdown with Notre Dame - their third consecutive ATS victory. We'll back the better defense while also fading the Heisman Trophy candidate in USC QB Caleb Williams. Here, we'll note that USC is just 37-58 ATS in its last 95 games played away from home off consecutive victories and a woeful 7-18 ATS in its last 25 December games. Take Utah (10*). |
|||||||
12-01-22 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Flames | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. While the Flames check in off a 6-2 blowout win over the Panthers and the Canadiens are off a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of the Sharks, I believe Montreal is set up well to give Calgary all it can handle on Thursday night. The Habs have certainly been playing better hockey lately, winning six of their last 10 games heading in. They'll have a little extra emotion for this one as teammate Sean Monahan makes his return to Calgary. Sure, the Flames skated to a blowout win over a good Panthers team two nights ago, but they've still dropped three of their last four overall and have 'only' won seven of 12 home games this season, outscoring the opposition by just 0.4 goals on average. The Habs are a respectable 5-5 on the road, outscored by an average margin of just 0.2 goals in those contests. Here, we'll note that Calgary is just 5-8 when playing at home after scoring five or more goals in their last game over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.1 goals on average in that spot. We'll confidently grab the insurance goal with the visitors at a near pk'em price here. Take Montreal +1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and New England at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Bills Thanksgiving Day victory in Detroit last Thursday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they stay on the road to face the division-rival Patriots in Foxborough. While Buffalo has still put up 30, 31 and 28 points over its last three contests, it hasn't looked totally in-sync. Whether that has to do with Josh Allen's injury is up for debate. With the Patriots having had an extra couple of days to prepare for this tall task, I do think we'll see their defense, which is still underrated at this late stage of the season in my opinion, keep Allen and Co. in check, relatively-speaking at least. I'm willing to chalk up last week's allowance of 33 points in Minnesota as an aberration as the Pats suffered a 'shock to the system' of sorts after facing the Jets (twice) and Colts over a three-week span heading in. I think we see their defense bounce back here. On the flip side, the Pats have gone fairly conservative offensively ever since Mac Jones orchestrated a turnover-fest against the Bears in a Monday nighter in late October. Since then, the Pats have turned the football over just twice in four games, without a single TO in their last two. While the Bills are known for their offense, they can play elite defense as well and while losing Von Miller to an injury hurts, the rest of the defense is as healthy as it's been in quite some time off the extended week. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 in Bills road games this season. We've also seen the 'under' go 6-1 with Buffalo coming off consecutive games totalling 50 or more points over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-01-22 | Germany -2.5 v. Costa Rica | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
Group Stage Game of the Year. My selection is on Germany -2.5 goals over Costa Rica at 2 pm et on Thursday. We actually won with Costa Rica +1 goal against Japan in its most recent match so there is some level of respect for the CONCACAF side but I simply feel it's a 'wrong place, wrong time' situation against a vastly superior German squad on Thursday and will confidently lay the 2.5 goals with Die Mannschaft here. Despite the 1-0 victory last time out, I still have Costa Rica rating out poorly through two matches in this tournament to date. Keeper Keylor Navas might be the weakest link of all, which obviously spells trouble as he tries to keep a loaded German offense that's just bubbling under the surface and poised for a breakout performance here. Let's not lose sight of the fact that this is a Costa Rican side that is just one game removed from a 7-0 drubbing at the hands of Spain. Unlike yesterday's match between Mexico and Saudi Arabia, where the Mexicans needed to win by margin and couldn't quite close the deal, the Germans will undoubtedly be poised under the pressure and I look for them to do a much better job of capitalizing on their opportunities here. Costa Rica doesn't have that same level of talent or creativity up front as the Saudis possessed, even if it did take the latter until the final stages to finally secure a goal yesterday. German keeper Manuel Neuer hasn't been at his best through two matches in this tournament but this is a big spot for him to rise to the occasion and quite honestly, I don't expect him to be challenged much at all here. Take Germany -2.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
11-30-22 | Wizards +6.5 v. Nets | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Wizards as they come off an impressive 142-127 win over the T'Wolves on Monday that snapped a three-game losing streak. All three of those losses came on their most recent road trip so it won't be difficult to sharpen their focus for this brief two-game trip. Note that Washington has undoubtedly had this rematch circled since getting throttled 128-86 at home against the Nets back in October. Prior to that, the Wizards had won consecutive meetings in this series, including a 117-103 victory here in Brooklyn last February. The Nets won but failed to cover against the Magic on Monday (we won with Orlando in that game). They've been shooting the lights out for weeks but I still think they're working with a slim margin for error as they've gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 games overall. Case in point, the Nets shot better than 54% from the field on Monday but still scored 'only' 109 points in an ATS loss. Washington comes in hot offensively as well, making good on 40+ field goals in seven straight games while hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in four of its last six contests. The Wizards last two opponents have shot exceptionally well but they've held those two teams to 80 and 84 FG attempts, limiting each of their last three foes to less than 90 attempts after five of their previous six opponents had eclipsed that number. Finally, we'll note that Brooklyn checks in a miserable 2-13 ATS the last 15 times it has played at home after winning five or six of its last seven games, outscored by an average margin of 1.1 points in that situation. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
11-30-22 | Rangers v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rangers are reeling off three straight losses and we've successfully faded them in their last two contests as they blew a 3-0 third period lead in a 4-3 loss to the Oilers and a 2-0 first period lead in a 5-3 defeat at the hands of the Devils, with both games coming at home. Here, they'll obviously be looking to tighten things up and I do think they benefit from stepping down in class after facing the first-place Devils on Monday to take on the second-last (in the Eastern Conference) Senators on Wednesday. Ottawa does check in off consecutive wins out west but now faces the tough 'first game back off a long road trip' situation, noting that New York has been much tougher defensively on the road compared to at home this season, allowing just 2.6 goals per game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 24-11 with the Rangers coming off a home loss over the last two seasons and better still, the 'under' is 13-2 when that home defeat came by two goals or more, as is the case here. That latter situation has produced an average total of just 4.8 goals. All three of last season's matchups between these two teams totalled six goals or less with the two games played here in Ottawa reaching only five and three total goals. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-29-22 | Clippers v. Blazers -3 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Blazers play on without Damian Lillard but the Clippers are in even worse shape, missing Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and John Wall (he'll rest with this being the first of a back-to-back set). Los Angeles did prevail by a 114-100 score over Indiana at home on Sunday, thanks to knocking down 42 field goals - the first time in three games it broke the 40-FG mark. Of course, the Clips needed 94 FG attempts to get there - well north of their season average (they had hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in eight of their previous nine contests). While the Blazers do look vulnerable defensively right now (40+ field goals allowed in eight straight games), I'm not convinced the Clips are well-positioned to take advantage. Portland suffered a 111-97 loss in Brooklyn on Sunday, managing just one victory on its four-game road trip. I do think there's reason for optimism as it returns home, noting that it plays at a faster, more fluid pace here, making good on 40-of-85 FG attempts per game. Keep in mind, the last two times Portland has gotten off 80+ FG attempts it has knocked down 44 and 42 of them and Los Angeles has allowed two of its last three foes to get off 94+ FG attempts, yielding 40+ makes in three of its last four contests. While the Clippers are 5-4 on the road this season, they've actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.2 points. Meanwhile, the Blazers are an even 4-4 at home but have outscored opponents by 1.8 points on average here at the Moda Center. Take Portland (10*). |
|||||||
11-28-22 | Devils -102 v. Rangers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New Jersey over New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Devils just keep rolling along and I like their chances of stacking up another victory as they head to Manhattan to face the struggling Rangers on Monday night. New York has lost seven of its last 11 games, including Saturday's stunning 4-3 defeat at the hands of the Oilers in a game they led 3-0 in the third period (we won with the underdog Oilers in that game). There's no comparison between these two teams statistically this season. The 'due factor' and the fact that New York has owned this series for years is really the only thing it has going for it in this matchup. That's not enough to warrant the pk'em price in my opinion. Noting that the Devils have outscored the opposition by 2.0 goals on average on the road this season while the Rangers have been outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals at home, we'll confidently back New Jersey here. Take New Jersey (10*). |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Packers +6.5 v. Eagles | Top | 33-40 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I don't know how you can be all that high on the Eagles right now as they enter Sunday's contest off three consecutive ATS losses after narrowly escaping with a 17-16 win in Indianapolis last Sunday. The time to fade the Packers was last Thursday - fresh off a huge come-from-behind upset win over the Cowboys - which we did with the Titans in that game. Now everyone has once again written off Aaron Rodgers and company in a spot where I believe they can give the Eagles all they can handle. Note that Green Bay laid waste to Philadelphia by a 30-16 score the last time they met less than two years ago. In that contest, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts completed 5-of-12 passes for 109 yards, one touchdown and one interception while running five times for 29 yards. Interestingly, TE Dallas Goedert led the Eagles in catches and receiving yards in that game. He's now sidelined, leaving the tight end position to a duo that includes Jack Stoll and Grant Calcaterra. Obviously Hurts is a much better quarterback now than he was two years ago. With that being said, I don't believe there's any sort of intimidation factor at play, certainly not after the Commanders and Colts bottled up this Eagles offense over the last two weeks. The Packers are an interesting study in many regards, still boasting plenty of talent on both sides of the football, and perhaps a chip on their shoulder in the 'spoiler' role down the stretch. Take Green Bay (10*). |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Rams +16 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-26 | Push | 0 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Yeah, the Rams are going nowhere this season. Everyone knows that. They're also missing most of their key contributors on offense - a unit that is almost unrecognizable at this point. The Chiefs know that as well and off a hard-fought, come-from-behind, last minute victory over the Chargers last week, I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown here. Kansas City doesn't run away and hide on the opposition this season. You could say only two of their games have been true blowouts - a 44-21 win in Arizona way back in Week 1 and a 44-23 rout of the 49ers on October 23rd. Here, they'll be facing a Rams team that has allowed more than 27 points just once all season, and they'll do so with their own injury issues. Already thin at the wide receiver position, they're still without Mecole Hardman and now Kadarius Toney is banged-up as well. Note that Kansas City has allowed 17 or more points in all 10 games so far this season so there's little reason to expect it to completely shut down the Rams offense here. I do like Los Angeles' chances of churning out some long, clock-eating drives in an effort to effectively shorten this game on Sunday and that certainly works in our favor catching north of two touchdowns. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Canada v. Croatia OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 115 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Canada and Croatia at 11 am et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring contest between two squads that appear to have 'no love lost' heading in. Both sides could certainly use the three points from this match with Canada off a 1-0 loss to Belgium and Croatia following up on an uninspiring draw with Morocco in their respective tournament openers. I'm confident the Croatians can put the Canadians on their back foot early on, noting that they've scored first in five of their last six matches. Canada couldn't break through against Belgium but certainly showed plenty of promise, taking the play to the much higher ranked squad in Wednesday's shutout loss. I'm confident we'll see the Canadians finally break through with their first World Cup goal in this match - I'm just not convinced it will be enough to come away with point(s), speaking to the potential of a 2-1 result. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-26-22 | Air Force v. San Diego State +2 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
My selection is on San Diego State plus the points over Air Force at 9 pm et on Saturday. San Diego State has risen from the ashes following a poor 2-3 start to the campaign, winning five of its last six contests to firmly plant itself in the Bowl picture. Both Air Force and San Diego State are in uncharted territory here, riding respective three-game winning streaks. There's no question it's the Aztecs that are playing better football, however, noting that Air Force has gone just 1-3 ATS over its last four contests and 2-5 ATS over its last seven overall. Meanwhile, San Diego State checks in 4-1 ATS over its last five games. You know the saying; good teams win, great teams cover. While I'm not sure we should be crowning this San Diego squad as 'great', I do think it is good enough to hand Air Force a 10th consecutive loss in this series going all the way back to 2010. Take San Diego State (10*). |
|||||||
11-25-22 | Lakers v. Spurs +5.5 | Top | 105-94 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the Spurs two nights ago as they fell in a big hole early in the game against the Pelicans and never recovered in a 19-point loss. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with San Antonio here, however, as it stays home to host the Lakers in a quick revenge spot after getting blown out 123-92 in Los Angeles on Sunday. While Los Angeles does check in 2-1-1 ATS over its last four contests, it isn't necessarily trending in the right direction at either end of the floor. Note that the Lakers have gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in three straight games while allowing their last three opponents to hoist up 92, 105 and 102 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Spurs have actually held their last five opponents to 79, 83, 81, 85 and 82 FG attempts but each and every one of those teams have shot the lights out. Of course, that has a lot to do with the inept nature of the Spurs defense. Note, however, that the Lakers might not be fit to take full advantage as they've shot 45.5% or worse in five of six road games this season. Here, we'll note that San Antonio is a long-term 126-95 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take San Antonio (10*). |
|||||||
11-25-22 | UCLA -10.5 v. California | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on UCLA minus the points over California at 4:30 pm et on Friday. While some feel UCLA could be in for a letdown here off last week's tough 48-45 loss to USC, I don't expect anything of the sort. After all, the Bruins check in off consecutive losses and this serves as a 'get right' matchup against Cal. The Bears are coming off a 27-20 win over Stanford last week. Color me unimpresssed as they failed to reach the end zone until nearly four minutes into the third quarter in that victory. We successfully faded Cal two weeks back as it fell by a 38-10 score at Oregon State - a game in which it's offense was held out of the end zone for the entire 60 minutes (the Bears only touchdown came on a fumble return). While UCLA has given up a ton of points this season, a lot of that has been game-script related. The Bruins actually match up well here, noting that they've held the opposition to just 3.9 yards per rush this season and that's an area where Cal needs to made headway as when it gets pass-happy, it also tends to turn the football over. QB Jack Plummer has thrown just five touchdowns to go along with six interceptions over the last four games and is likely to be under duress most of the game on Friday. Take UCLA (10*). |
|||||||
11-25-22 | Iran +0.5 v. Wales | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
World Cup Game of the Week. My selection is on Iran +0.5 goals over Wales at 5 am et on Friday. Entering this tournament, I felt that Wales would be hard-pressed to come away with a victory in a sneaky-tough group that includes USA, England and Iran. It managed to earn a draw against the Americans (we won with the draw in that match) thanks to a late converted penalty by Gareth Bale but I expect it to be given all it can handle against Iran again on Friday. The Iranians fell in a blowout against England in their World Cup opener. They were never competitive in that affair but I'm confident we'll see them bounce right back in a far more favorable matchup here. Despite the setback, we did see flashes of brilliance from the Iran attack. Here, I'm confident it will have more freedom to operate as it's unlikely to be under constant siege at the hands of a far more manageable Wales offense. Noting that Wales has conceded the first goal and also gone winless across its last six matches in all competitions, I'm comfortable grabbing the half-goal with Iran here. Take Iran +0.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
11-24-22 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss UNDER 60.5 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Ole Miss at 7 pm et on Thursday. While this isn't Army-Navy, these two teams have now gone 'under' each of the last five times they've met over the last five seasons. I'm expecting that trend to continue on Thursday. The Bulldogs offense hasn't been the same high-octane scoring machine it was earlier in the campaign. Yes, they exploded for 56 points last Saturday, but that was against FCS squad East Tennessee State. They were held to fewer than 20 points in three of four games prior to that and in the other scored only three offensive touchdowns in regulation time against Auburn. It's been a similar story for Ole Miss as its offense has struggled as the schedule has toughened up. Last Saturday against Arkansas, the Rebels didn't score a touchdown until nearly a minute into the fourth quarter, when the game was already well in hand for the Razorbacks, up 42-6. Two games back against Alabama, Ole Miss couldn't muster a single point from seven minutes remaining in the third quarter on. Even the game prior to that, an eventual 31-28 win over Texas A&M, the Rebels scored a touchdown less than two minutes into the game but then didn't reach the end zone again until nearly midway through the third quarter. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-24-22 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 45.5 | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. Last Thanksgiving, we saw the Cowboys fall in a wild, high-scoring shootout against the Raiders (in overtime) but I expect a much different story to unfold in this year's instalment as Dallas draws a divisional foe in the New York Giants. Of course, the Giants allowed a season-high 31 points in last Sunday's home loss against the Lions. While they're dealing with some key injuries in the secondary, I do expect them to at the very least do a better job of defending the Cowboys than the Vikings did last Sunday (we won with Dallas and the 'under' in that game). The presence of DT Leonard Williams has certainly made a difference for New York's run defense, noting that it has held opponents to 4.3 yards per rush over the last three games (5.3 ypr allowed this season). Don't count on the Giants abandoning the run the way the Vikings did against Dallas last Sunday (that was largely game-script related as they fell behind big early). While RB Saquon Barkley hasn't been his usual dominant self in recent weeks, the G-Men will still want to get all they can out of him in an effort to churn out long, clock-eating drives to effectively shorten this contest as double-digit underdogs. New York, unlike Minnesota, also has a mobile quarterback that can help in minimizing the effectiveness of Dallas' ferocious pass rush. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times the Giants have come off a game in which they allowed 31 or more points, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 31.5 points in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-24-22 | Bills v. Lions UNDER 54.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. This is the highest posted total on this week's NFL board and I believe it will prove too high at Ford Field on Thursday afternoon. The Bills offense 'should' have its way with a weak Lions defense in this one but I can't help but feel their ceiling is somewhat capped by QB Josh Allen's nagging elbow injury. He's coming off a poor performance against a very beatable Browns defense last Sunday and now plays on a short week, knowing he'll need to be somewhat cautious against an opportunistic Lions defense that has forced seven turnovers in the last three games. With injury concerns on their offensive line, I'm not expecting much from the Lions offense here. Speaking of capped ceilings, that's precisely what we've seen from Detroit's offense with QB Jared Goff at the helm. Note that while the Lions have scored 31 points in consecutive games, they've completed just 14, 19 and 17 passes for 137, 228 and 165 passing yards over their last three contests. I can't help but feel the optimal gameplan here involves making running backs Jamaal Williams and DeAndre Swift the focal point on Thursday afternoon, in an effort to churn out long, clock-eating drives to effectively shorten proceedings as a two-score underdog. Detroit's recent scoring spike has also had something to do with the fact that it has turned the football over just once over its last four games. It will need to be cautious here, however, noting that Buffalo has forced at least one turnover in seven straight games. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-23-22 | Blackhawks v. Stars -1.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas -1.5 goals over Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. Things look like they're only going to get worse before they get better when it comes to the Blackhawks and I think they're in for another beatdown at the hands of the Stars in Dallas on Wednesday. Dallas has been one of the league's most impressive teams this season, checking in sporting an 11-5-3 record. However, it enters Wednesday's contest off a shootout loss to the defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche two nights ago. I'm confident we'll see the Stars bounce back here as they host a reeling Blackhawks squad that has lost four straight games, all by two goals or more. A punchless offense and a leaky defense is always a bad combination and that's precisely what Chicago has right now, with no turnaround in sight. Take Dallas -1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
11-23-22 | Pelicans v. Spurs +7.5 | Top | 129-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Spurs are limping home off an 0-5 road trip but I'm confident they can bounce back and give the Pelicans all they can handle on Wednesday night. It's not difficult to see that San Antonio's problems mostly lie at the defensive end of the floor. All five of the Spurs opponents on their most recent road trip shot better than 51% from the field. All is not lost, however, and I do think we see them turn it around, relatively-speaking, sooner rather than later. Note that San Antonio has actually held four straight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Spurs have managed to knock down 41 or more field goals in three of their last four games. Those two factors would have you thinking they would have at least been able to fare better than their 1-3 ATS mark over that stretch. I expect things to start to level out for them from an ATS perspective as they return home. Note that the Pelicans have been vulnerable defensively as well, allowing six of their last nine opponents to make good on 40 or more field goals. They quite simply shot the lights out in a rout of the Warriors (who were resting their stars in a back-to-back spot) two nights ago. Nothing came easy for them against the Spurs last season as San Antonio went 3-2 SU and ATS in five meetings, getting off 91, 93, 89, 92 and 91 FG attempts along the way. Take San Antonio (10*). |
|||||||
11-23-22 | Canada v. Belgium OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
Group Stage Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Canada and Belgium at 2 pm et on Wednesday. While few expect Canada to make much noise in its first World Cup appearance in what seems like an eternity, there are those that feel Belgium may be a little less explosive than we've been accustomed to seeing entering Wednesday's opener. The absence of striker Romelu Lukaku certainly casts a heavy shadow over the Belgian side, but I'm confident we'll still see it thrive offensively against a Canadian side that isn't without its warts defensively. Milan Borjan checks in as one of the weakest goalkeepers in the entire tournament according to my own ratings. Miller and Johnston are wildcards at the back-end as they've performed well at the club level but it's a big jump from MLS to the World Cup stage and they'll have a trial by fire against one of the best squads in the World on Wednesday. This is without a doubt one of the weakest defenses across the board in the entire tournament. The question becomes whether the Canadians can break through offensively to help this total along and I do think they're catching the Belgians at the right time in that regard. Surprisingly, world class keeper Thibaut Courtois enters in less than top form after a string of poor performances, including against Egypt in a friendly warm-up match. Toby Alderweireld has also struggled in recent club play with Royal Antwerp - his responsibility is defending the middle of the field on the back line, an area I'm confident Canada can exploit with table-setter Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David looking to write a new chapter in Canadian soccer history. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-22-22 | Pistons v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. Detroit enters this contest off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results against the Lakers and Kings after the first game on its current road trip totalled just 187 points. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting as the Pistons continue their road trip in Denver. The Nuggets are of course missing a number of key contributors right now and it has shown. They've managed to get off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. However, they have figured out how to stay competitive and that's by slowing the opposition, limiting three of their last four opponents to 81 or fewer FG attempts. Detroit quite simply shot the lights out last time out in Sacramento. While it has knocked down 43 and 47 field goals over its last two games, I'm not convinced that type of production is sustainable as it had been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in each of its previous eight contests. On the flip side, the Pistons have done a nice job of at least limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, holding four consecutive foes to 85 or fewer FG attempts. You would have to go back four games to find the last time Denver made good on more than 38 field goals, leaving it in a tough spot here should the pace stay down. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-21-22 | 49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 43.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Month (1H). My selection is on the first half 'under' between San Francisco and Arizona at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The 49ers have generally been slow starters offensively this season, scoring more than 14 points in the first half only once through their first seven games. While we won with the first half 'over' in last week's eventual victory over the Chargers, I won't hesitate to go the other way as they head to Mexico to face the Cardinals on Monday night. Arizona came up with its best defensive effort in weeks in a 27-17 victory over the Rams last week. I actually don't mind Colt McCoy at quarterback given the team's current state as he doesn't tend to stretch out plays and force the offensive line to block for extended periods the same way Kyler Murray does (McCoy also lacks Murray's elusiveness and mobility of course). This is obviously a favorable matchup for the 49ers vaunted defense but I do think the Cards can do enough to extend some drives and eat some clock early on. Meanwhile, the 49ers offense remains somewhat capped in terms of its ceiling with QB Jimmy Garropolo at the helm. My concern for the full game 'under' in this one is that the Cards defense wears down and ends up getting exposed by San Francisco's ground attack and middle-of-the-field passing attack as the game goes on. Early, I do think the Cards can hang, however. Here, we'll note that the first half 'under' is 8-2 with the Niners coming off four or five wins in their last six games over the last three seasons and 5-1 with the Cards following up consecutive 'over' results over the same stretch. Take the first half under (10*). |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 52 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The first matchup between these teams came back in Week 2 and was not surprisingly pegged as a shootout but fizzled somewhat as the Chiefs pulled out a 27-24 victory that stayed just 'under' the total. While both offenses are missing or dealing with some banged-up key pieces, I believe we're in for a true back-and-forth shootout in Sunday night's rematch. Kansas City's offense keeps rolling along with a 'next man up' philosophy, particularly at the wide receiver position where QB Patrick Mahomes serves as a true talent-elevator. The Chiefs backfield has been a revolving door this season as well but should feast on a Chargers defense that hasn't been able to even slow opposing running games this season and now deals with a cluster of injuries along its defensive line. Los Angeles is expected to have wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back on the field on Sunday. Regardless whether they're 100% healthy, their presence alone should give the offense a much-needed boost after it stalled in the second half against the 49ers last week. QB Justin Herbert has fared exceptionally well against this Chiefs defense in recent years and should be in for another boxscore-stuffing performance on Sunday night. Given Kansas City's tendency to allow opposing running backs to get loose in the short passing game, Chargers RB Austin Ekeler sets up well to go off in this matchup as well. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 in the Chargers last nine games following a road loss, resulting in an average total of 55.3 points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Toronto v. Winnipeg UNDER 49 | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 56 h 52 m | Show |
Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Winnipeg at 6 pm et on Sunday. To me, this has been a rather uneventful CFL season with things going mostly as planned with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers entering the Grey Cup favored to win once again. While I do think Winnipeg ultimately wins this game, I'm not interested in laying the points here. Instead, I'll call for the Blue Bombers defense to come up big again while both offenses play it conservatively enough to help keep this one 'under' what I consider to be an inflated total. In an odd quirk, this will be the first time either side faces a different opponent in the last four games. By that I mean, the Argos have faced Montreal in each of their last three contests while the Bombers are coming off three consecutive games against the Lions. These two teams faced each other just once during the regular season and the result was a 23-22 Winnipeg victory in Toronto. That game actually eclipsed the closing total by a half-point, so we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total here. I don't believe it's warranted. While Argos QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson avoided costly turnovers against Montreal last week, he has been turnover-prone over the course of the season and I don't believe Toronto wants to put too much on his plate here, especially with veteran RB and former Bomber Andrew Harris in the backfield. The same goes for the Bombers, at least to a certain extent, as they're always comfortable doing just enough offensively while putting most of the load on their elite defense, which has been the class of the CFL this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 6-3 the last nine times the Argos have sought revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent while the 'under' is 18-11 in Winnipeg's last 29 games when installed as a favorite. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Cowboys v. Vikings UNDER 48.5 | Top | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 50 h 27 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Most have this game projected as a shootout between two of the NFC's elite teams in the friendly confines of U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. I'm not so easily convinced. Both teams are coming off poor defensive performances last week with the Cowboys coming away with an overtime loss against the down-trodden Packers and the Vikings coming from behind to defeat the Super Bowl-contending Bills, also in overtime. While Minnesota's defense continues to give up a ton of yardage to opposing offenses, it has done a reasonable job of limiting points, and more specifically touchdowns. Note that last week marked the first time all season the Vikings had yielded more than 26 points in a game. They haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since a three-game 'over' streak from Weeks 3 through 5. The Cowboys have one of the better defenses in the league but haven't shown it in the last couple of games against the Bears and Packers. That's been somewhat game-script dependent as they've been playing from ahead most of the way (something they don't necessarily project to do here in this near pk'em priced contest). Note that Dallas enters this game leading the NFL in sacks per game and only two teams have held the opposition to fewer yards per pass play. While you can run on these Cowboys, it seems that opponents are rarely able to resist the urge to test their aggressive pass defenders, often leading to negative results. Here, we'll note that the Cowboys have checked in as a road favorite of a field goal or less only twice over the last three seasons and both of those games stayed 'under' the total. The 'under' is also 9-4 in the Vikings last 13 games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous contest and 25-12 the last 37 times they've played at home after winning six or seven of their last eight games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 42.0 points. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Lions +3 v. Giants | Top | 31-18 | Win | 100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Lions suddenly have a good thing going after delivering a home win over the Packers and a come-from-behind road victory over the Bears in consecutive weeks. Now they head to the Meadowlands to face a Giants team that I still consider a 'paper tiger' even as they sit at an impressive 7-2 nine games into the campaign. Last week was a good spot to back the Giants. They ultimately covered by the narrowest of margins but really had no business winning that game as their offense did virtually nothing while the underdog Texans marched into the red zone time and time again but simply couldn't finish drives with touchdowns. Here, I'm not sure New York will be so fortunate. The G-Men have been gashed for 5.4 yards per rush this season with no easy fix in sight. There's certainly a path for the Lions to effectively shorten this game with an offense that's more than capable of staying on the field for extended stretches. Defensively, the Lions have their warts but the Giants offensive ceiling is always capped thanks to its one-dimensional nature. RB Saquon Barkley will get his but at some point in this game, I expect QB Daniel Jones to be called upon to be a difference-maker. I'm not convinced he comes through, noting that New York has totalled fewer than 20 pass completions in four straight games and has topped out at a pitiful 213 passing yards in a game this season. Take Detroit (10*). |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Jazz v. Blazers OVER 222.5 | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Jazz were involved in a wild, high-scoring affair against the Suns last night, with that 'over' result snapping a brief two-game 'under' streak. I look for another relatively high-scoring contest on Saturday as the top two teams in the Northwest Division (currently) match up in Portland. While Utah's offense has been terrific, I'm still concerned about its lack of defense. Note that the Jazz have now allowed four of their last five opponents to knock down 44 or more field goals. Three of their last five opponents have gotten off 93 or more field goal attempts. The opportunities are there and I expect the Blazers to take advantage as they look to bounce back from a near-miss against the Nets two nights ago. While Portland has been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent by holding four consecutive foes to 85 or fewer FG attempts, that hasn't stopped the opposition from making good on 40+ attempts in three consecutive games. Noting that this was a favorable matchup for Utah all of last season (the Jazz scored 129, 120, 123 and 111 points in four meetings) and arguably plays faster and with more efficiency this season, the Blazers should have their hands full defensively in this one. That being said, Portland is back at virtually full strength and will undoubtedly have its legs under it as it wraps up a three-game homestand off a day's rest. I'm anticipating a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Georgia v. Kentucky +22.5 | Top | 16-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Kentucky plus the points over Georgia at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. While things have gone a little sideways for Kentucky following a perfect 4-0 start to the campaign, I'm still a believer in this Wildcats squad and feel they can give undefeated Georgia a run on Saturday afternoon in Lexington. While the Bulldogs remain undefeated on the season at 10-0 and come off consecutive ATS victories as well, it's not as if it's been a completely smooth ride. Georgia has actually turned the football over seven times while forcing only two turnovers over its last three games. Remember, there was a scare on the road against an average Missouri team (the Wildcats beat the Tigers on the road two weeks ago) - a game Georgia won by only four points. The Wildcats suffered an inevitable letdown at home against Vanderbilt last week after it gained Bowl eligibility with a sixth victory the game previous. I'm confident it can pick itself back up here as the Bulldogs are obviously an easy opponent to get up for. Note that Kentucky has yet to allow more than 24 points in a game this season and it can run the football (although not as consistently as you'd like to see given its backfield talent). That's to say there's a path for the Wildcats to effectively shorten this game and keep it competitive for four quarters. Note that you would have to go back four games here in Lexington - all the way to 2014 - to find the last time Georgia defeated Kentucky by more than 17 points on this field. The Wildcats defense has matched up fairly well against the Bulldogs in recent years, allowing 'only' 30, 14 and 21 points in the last three meetings in this series. Take Kentucky (10*). |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Miami-FL +19.5 v. Clemson | Top | 10-40 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for the underdog Hurricanes as they look to pick up that all-important sixth win of the season. Of course, it will be an uphill battle trying to win outright as a near-three touchdown underdog but we're not concerned about the outright victory here, only that the Canes can stay competitive for four quarters and I'm confident that they can. Everything mighty Clemson was working toward was essentially trashed in a blowout loss against Notre Dame in South Bend two weeks ago. Credit the Tigers for bouncing back with a 31-16 home win over Louisville last week but I can't help but feel an empty feeling still remains for these Clemson players. Miami picked up a critical road win at Virginia three games back before suffering an inevitable letdown back at home against Florida State. Yes, the Canes got crushed by the Seminoles but a loss is a loss and they moved on just fine, notching a 35-14 win at Georgia Tech last Saturday. While the Canes no longer have the services of QB Tyler Van Dyke as he's been lost to a shoulder injury, I actually think his replacement Jacurri Brown is a good fit in this offense. He made the big plays when needed and showed that he could do some things with his legs as well, gaining 87 rushing yards on 19 attempts. Quietly, Canes standout WR Xavier Restrepo returned from injury a few games back and has been slowly worked back into the offense. He's capable of making a splash this week in my opinion. With that said, I believe the path to Miami success here against the Tigers involves leaning on its terrific ground attack, not to mention is still-underrated defense. It's not as if Clemson has been blowing the doors off of its opponents this season. The Tigers have topped out at 34 points over their last six games. We've also seen teams move the football on this Clemson defense, stunningly on the ground as the Tigers have been ripped for 206, 124, 263 and 150 rushing yards over their last four contests. The last time these two teams met was in 2020 when Clemson rolled to a 42-17 home victory. The pointspread would seem to indicate Miami hasn't closed the gap at all - in fact, quite the opposite - since that meeting but I believe it has and will show it on the field on Saturday. Take Miami (10*). |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Virginia Tech v. Liberty UNDER 47 | Top | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Liberty at 12 noon et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up as a low-scoring affair between the down-trodden Hokies and upstart Flames on Saturday afternoon. Virginia Tech won two of its first three games this season but has gone winless in seven games since. While you might not know it by last week's 24-7 loss to Duke, I don't think the Hokies have quit on the season. This is still a talented defensive team at the very least and one that can relish the role of spoiler in the final two games of the regular season. Note that for as bad as things have gone for the Hokies and for as little the offense has been able to produce and stay on the field, they've actually held their last four opponents to 20, 22, 28 and 24 points. There was a stretch in late-September and early-October where their defense got worn down but we have seen that unit regroup and play the way it can lately. Now it faces a Liberty offense that has kept rolling along despite missing a number of key contributors due to injuries, including its top two quarterbacks on the depth chart and standout RB Dae Dae Hunter. The 'next man up' philosophy on that side of the football certainly worked last week as the Flames scored 33 points, albeit in a losing effort against UConn. They will face a tougher defensive challenge here, and I would anticipate perhaps a more conservative, ball control type of offensive gameplan given QB Jonathan Bennett's turnover-prone nature so far. The Liberty defense suffered a letdown against the Huskies last week but that was to be expected after holding Arkansas to 19 points in a stunning upset win the week previous. Note that Liberty has still held three of its last four opponents to 20 points or less and should be able to contain a Hokies offense that scored a touchdown less than two minutes in against Duke last week but then never hit the scoresheet again. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-18-22 | San Diego State v. New Mexico +14.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 46 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New Mexico plus the points over San Diego State at 9:45 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for underdog New Mexico as it looks to play spoiler against San Diego State on Friday. The Aztecs have saved their season with wins over UNLV and San Jose State over the last two weeks, giving them Bowl eligibility. I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown against a seemingly inferior squad here. New Mexico is a woeful 2-8 on the season and wasn't competitive in last Saturday's 31-3 loss to Air Force. The Lobos actually did well defensively to hold the Falcons to just 14 first half points but coming back on a team that can hog the time of possession like Air Force is extremely tough. San Diego State exploded for a 43-27 come-from-behind win over San Jose State last week. It seemed as if the Spartans thought it was going to be a cakewalk after two early touchdowns but the Aztecs took the ensuing kickoff (following the second TD) to the house to turn the tide. QB Jalen Mayden has been San Diego State's offense since taking over but this will be the Aztecs first road test since falling by a 32-28 score at Fresno State on October 29th. In a game that features an exceptionally low posted total, I believe grabbing the generous helping of points with the home underdog will be worth our while. Take New Mexico (10*). |
|||||||
11-18-22 | Celtics v. Pelicans OVER 226.5 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and New Orleans at 8:40 pm et on Friday. We saw two relatively low-scoring affairs between these two teams last season but I expect a different story to unfold on Friday in New Orleans. Boston enters this game locked-in offensively, knocking down 46+ field goals in four of its last five games. Concerning, however, is the fact that the Celtics have allowed their last two opponents to get off a whopping 98 and 101 field goal attempts. In fact, seven of the C's last 10 opponents have hoisted up 90+ FG attempts. Not only that but seven of their last nine foes have knocked down more than 40 field goals. New Orleans certainly appears set to take advantage as it has made good on 42+ field goals in six of its last seven games and more than 40 in nine of its last 10 contests. However, like the Celtics, the Pelicans have proven vulnerable at times defensively, yielding 43+ made field goals in five of their last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-18-22 | Baylor v. Virginia UNDER 133.5 | Top | 79-86 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Tournament Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Virginia at 7 pm et on Friday. We've seen the 'over' go a combined 5-0 in these two teams' first five games but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up in Las Vegas on Friday. While Baylor's offense has garnered most of the attention, it has quietly been in midseason form defensively as well. The Bears check in having allowed just 49, 48 and 56 field goal attempts through three games. Yes, they've faced inferior competition but it's not as if today's opponent, Virginia, will be looking to really push the pace offensively. The Cavaliers have scored 73 and 89 points in winning their first two games, also against inferior competition, but have hoisted up just 47 and 54 field goal attempts. They quite simply shot the lights out against Monmouth last time out, leading to their highest-scoring performance of the young season. Like Baylor, Virginia has been locked-in defensively, holding its first two opponents to only 53 and 41 FG attempts. Both teams have been lighting it up from three-point range while also getting to the free throw line at an incredible rate. That changes as they both step up in class in this one. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-16-22 | Kings v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. These aren't the same Kings we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years. Previous Los Angeles' clubs wouldn't have been able to sniff out a comeback in a game like Monday's in Calgary. In that contest, the Kings fell behind 5-2 and 6-3 but ultimately rallied for a narrow 6-5 defeat, coming one near-miss from tying the game in the closing minute. Los Angeles has now scored nine goals over its last two contests and checks in averaging 3.7 goals per game (an average total of 7.8 goals) on the road this season. The Oilers are back home following a three-game road trip that saw them win two games. They're averaging 3.8 goals per game on home ice this season but also allowing an average of 3.8. Noting that the 'over' is 15-5 the last 20 times the Oilers have come off a win by 2+ goals, as is the case here, with that situation averaging a total of 7.4 goals, we'll confidently back the 'over' in Oil Country on Thursday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-16-22 | Rockets v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs pulled out a 103-101 win over the Clippers last night despite the visitors shooting a blistering 54% from the field. I'm not going to knock the Dallas defense for that performance as Los Angeles quite simply shot the lights out. Incredibly, the Mavs actually held the Clips to just 64 field goal attempts. Dallas has now held four of its last five opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts and should have little trouble locking down one of the worst offenses in the league in the Rockets on Wednesday. Note that the Mavs themselves have topped out at just 86 FG attempts over their last eight contests. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in five of their last six games. Stunningly bad on offense, Houston has been limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in 11 of its last 12 contests. On a more positive note, the Rockets have at least been able to keep their opponents pace in check to a certain extent, holding seven of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-15-22 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 212 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavericks are mired in an incredible ATS slump right now having gone eight games without covering the spread. While I do look for them to win this game on Tuesday night, we're dealing with another inflated pointspread so I prefer to play the 'under' in this spot, which is set up well with the Clippers coming off a relatively high-scoring 'over' result last night and Dallas checking in off consecutive 'overs'. Note that these two teams met four times last season with Dallas topping out at 112 points in those contests with two of them being settled in the 90's. The Mavs continue to do a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, having held six of their last seven opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts with six of those foes knocking down fewer than 40 of those attempts. From an offensive standpoint, Dallas has hoisted up 86 of fewer FG attempts in seven straight games. The Clippers certainly won't shy away from a low-event game in a back-to-back spot. Note that they've gotten off 87 or fewer FG attempts in all 14 games this season. They've also limited seven straight opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts and four of their last five to 40 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-14-22 | Commanders +11 v. Eagles | Top | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday. One thing we know when it comes to the Commanders (or the Football Team as I still prefer to call them) is they love to play for their quarterback Taylor Heinecke. The same goes for head coach Ron Rivera - the very definition of a 'player's coach'. While it's been another trying season in Washington, winning only four of nine games to date, this team continues to play competitive football, going 2-0-1 ATS since Heinecke took over for an ineffective Carson Wentz. The first matchup between these two teams was no contest as the Eagles rolled to a 24-8 victory in Washington. I did like the way the Commanders defense played in that contest, however, and really all season long, only allowing more than 25 points on one occasion. You would have to go back six games to find the last time they gave up more than 21 points. Needless to say that's worth noting given the lofty pointspread here. Philadelphia is in danger of coming out a little sleepy here in my opinion, still undefeated on the season and having not played since a week ago Thursday, when it was never really challenged in a 29-17 win in Houston. Note that the Eagles took last year's meeting between these two teams here in Philadelphia by 'only' 10 points. I say 'only' because Washington couldn't have played much worse in that game, gaining only 63 rushing yards on 21 attempts while completing 20-of-31 passes for 174 yards. The Eagles racked up 238 rushing yards and 281 passing yards in that contest. Again, they won by only 10 points. I'm confident the revenge-minded Commanders can close the gap in many regards on Monday and ultimately give the Eagles a bit of a scare at the very least. Only twice in the last three seasons have we seen the Eagles come off five or six ATS wins in their last seven games and on both occasions they failed to cover the spread in their next game. That's the situation here and I look for the Commanders to stay inside the lofty pointspread. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
11-14-22 | Raptors v. Pistons UNDER 220 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. After giving up 132 and 118 points in losing efforts to open this three-game road trip, I look for the Raptors to tighten things up considerably on Monday night in Detroit. Toronto has still held three of its last four opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, we find the Raptors down-trodden offensively missing a number of key contributors and having knocked down 38 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. The Pistons have lost three games in a row, allowing 117 points or more in each contest. Like the Raptors, they're struggling offensively, making good on fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games. Noting that the 'under' is 23-11 in the Pistons last 34 games when coming off consecutive 'over' results, leading to an average total of 216.4 points, we'll confidently take that position here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Chargers v. 49ers -7.5 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
SNF Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. While the Chargers inexplicably enter this game with the superior overall record to that of the 49ers, I don't believe they're the better team, at least not given all of the injury blows they've been dealt. The Niners have had their share of key injuries as well but their depth has shone through and they're off their bye week on Sunday, set up in a smash spot offensively. I say this is a smash spot because the Chargers have been horrid against the run, allowing north of 6.0 yards per rush. Needless to say, the Niners can run the football as well as any team in the league, especially with RB Christian McCaffrey even more acclimated with the offense off the bye. I'm also convinced the Niners can get creative with their passing attack in this matchup as well. We've seen the Chargers frustratingly stray away at times from their best all-around offensive player, RB Austin Ekeler, at least in terms of their ground attack. Playing from behind doesn't suit this team particularly well missing its top two receiving threats in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Even against an injury-plagued Falcons defense last Sunday, the Chargers were only able to muster 20 points on 245 passing yards (those came on 43 pass attempts). Take San Francisco (10*). |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Chargers v. 49ers OVER 45 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
SNF Total of the Year (1H). My selection is on the first half 'over' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I believe this sets up as a smash spot for the 49ers offense against a Chargers defense that has been plagued by a number of key injuries and absolutely shredded by opposing ground attacks, allowing north of 6.0 yards per rush this season. Coming off their bye week and with all of their weapons healthy, including all-world o-lineman Trent Williams, the potential is there for Kyle Shanahan's offense to go off in this spot. I'll play the first half 'over' only as I do think there's a good chance the game becomes lopsided, in which case the Chargers would likely stray away from their effective ground game with RB Austin Ekeler while the 49ers could elect to take the air out of the football. The Niners opened the season with their first four games totalling just 20, 10, 20 and 20 first half points. Since then, their last three contests have reached 35, 27 and 24 points in the first half. Relatively high-scoring first halves have been commonplace for the Chargers this season as their games have reached 17, 23, 34, 38, 23, 38 and 24 points in the first 30 minutes. We can't ignore the Niners defensive injuries, which are numerous, opening the door for the Chargers to at least scheme up positive plays early in this contest. Again, my concern is that the visitors get forced to move away from a more balanced attack as the game progresses, noting that they're without their two top receivers in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Take the first half over (10*). |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Texans v. Giants OVER 40.5 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Texans aren't shying away from handing rookie RB Dameon Pierce a heavy workload as the centerpiece of their offense and that should pay dividends against a Giants defense that has given up a whopping 5.4 yards per rush this season. Houston's offense also gets back underrated WR Nico Collins for this one while it remains to be seen whether Brandin Cooks will return to the field or not. Regardless, I do think the Texans can make some headway, likely playing catch-up most of the day on Sunday. Speaking of bad run defenses, Houston has arguably been even worse than New York in that department. No team has given up more rushing yards or rushing touchdowns this season. That opens the door for another monster performance from Giants RB Saquon Barkley here. Of course, the Giants offense goes as Barkley goes and off their bye week I'm confident they'll get back on track here. Note that prior to losing 27-13 in Seattle last time out (we won with the Seahawks in that game), New York had scored 20+ points in four straight games. Even with a limited passing game, there's reason to believe Daniel Jones can have a one-off breakout performance against a Texans pass defense that has been flamed for 48-of-64 passing over their last three contests. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Browns +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 17-39 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Browns seem like they're always good for one stunner of an upset road win each season and I think this could be it on Sunday in Miami. We successfully faded the Dolphins last Sunday as they won but didn't cover against the Bears in Chicago. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well again as I feel the Browns match up well in a number of areas. There's still time for a bit of a quarterback controversy in Cleveland in advance of Deshaun Watson's impending return to the field in Week 13. I haven't always been high on QB Jacoby Brissett but he did win me over when he last took the field with the Browns in their impressive Monday night win over division-rival Cincinnati two weeks ago. The bye week helped Cleveland get healthier with RG Wyatt Teller among those returning for this week's game - giving a boost to an already terrific Browns ground attack. On the defensive side of the football, Cleveland is expected to have CB Denzel Ward back. While the Browns don't have anyone capable of neutralizing Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill, even if he does go off (again) there's no guarantee Miami can score enough, or make enough stops on defense to secure the cover. The Miami defense continues to play on without three key pass stoppers in corners Byron Jones and Nik Needham and safety Brandon Jones. Xavien Howard has been able to stay in the lineup but he's dealt with injuries to both groins all season long. Here, we'll note that Miami is a woeful 6-21 ATS in its last 27 home games coming off a win by three points or less, outscored by 4.4 points on average in that situation. Take Cleveland (10*). |
|||||||
11-12-22 | San Jose State v. San Diego State UNDER 41.5 | Top | 27-43 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 43 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose State and San Diego State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. I can't help but feel San Diego State's 32-28 loss to Fresno State two games back served as a 'watershed moment' for the team. The Aztecs leaned heavily on their defense last Saturday, prevailing by a 14-10 score over UNLV (we won with Rebels ATS in that game). With a severely disjointed offense, San Diego State will likely need to continue to ride its defense hard down the stretch and I think it's catching San Jose State at the right time here, as the Spartans are likely in for a letdown after scoring 35 and 28 points over their last two games. San Jose State can play some defense as well. The Spartans have incredibly held six of eight opponents to 17 or fewer points this season. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in six of their eight contests. Noting that last year's meeting between these two teams produced a grand total of just 32 points, I'm comfortable playing the 'under' again here, even as we work with a relatively low number. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-12-22 | California v. Oregon State -13.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 56 h 40 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State minus the points over California at 9 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this spot sets up for Oregon State as it returns to Corvallis with an extra day of preparation time following last Friday's tough 24-21 loss at Washington. We won with the 'under' in that narrow defeat at the hands of the Huskies in Seattle but won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Beavers here. California checks in off a spirited 41-35 loss at rival USC. The Bears were obviously up for that showdown, turning in one of their best performances of the season, albeit in a losing effort. I question whether Cal gets back up to the same level for this one, noting that it enters on the heels of five straight losses, with its season effectively circling the drain with slim hopes of gaining Bowl eligibility (it needs to win its final three games). Note that Cal is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS victory while Oregon State has reeled off 10 consecutive ATS victories here at home. Take Oregon State (10*). |
|||||||
11-12-22 | South Carolina v. Florida UNDER 59.5 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 20 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between South Carolina and Florida at 4 pm et on Saturday. South Carolina's offense got off to a roaring start this season, scoring 30+ points in four of its first five games. That had a lot to do with a very manageable non-conference schedule, however. Since then, the Gamecocks have put up 24, 30, 10 and 38 points with the latter performance coming against one of the worst defensive teams in the country in Vanderbilt last Saturday. Florida's defense has been ripped by the likes of Tennessee and Georgia but there's no shame in that. Outside of those two poor performances, the Gators 'D' has held up reasonably well and I'm confident it can stand up against what I still consider to be a fading Gamecocks offense (note that South Carolina gained four extra possessions thanks to turnovers last week and still scored 'only' 38 points against an awful Vandy defense). Florida is coming off a 41-point outburst in a win over Texas A&M last week but I don't think this is an offense built to deliver those type of point explosions on a regular basis. Note that the Gators have been held to 18 or fewer pass completions in five consecutive games, despite trailing most of the way in two of those contests. While the 'over' has cashed in five straight meetings in this series, those games topped out at 66 points so not all that much higher than the number we're dealing with here. Also note that only three of those five contests surpassed Saturday's total (at the time of writing). Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-12-22 | Purdue +6.5 v. Illinois | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 46 h 25 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Year. My selection is on Purdue plus the points over Illinois at 12 noon et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in Purdue's ugly home loss against Iowa last Saturday as the Boilermakers couldn't get anything going offensively in an eventual 24-3 loss. Plenty of bettors got burned with Purdue as a home favorite in that spot and will want no part of the Boilers as they hit the road to face Illinois here. That's precisely what makes Purdue so attractive as we catch a generous helping of points in a stadium where the Boilers haven't lost since way back in 2010. Illinois is in bounce-back mode as well following a stunning home loss against Michigan State last week. While there have been some dominant defensive performances along the way, I think there have also been some 'smoke and mirrors' involved in the Illini's impressive 7-2 start to the campaign. For Purdue, it's getting down to crunch time as it looks again to gain Bowl eligibility with that elusive sixth win following back-to-back losses against Wisconsin and Iowa, as mentioned. Note that Purdue checks in 21-8 ATS in its last 29 road games after losing three of its last four contests ATS, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Illinois is a woeful 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after winning five or six of its last seven games ATS, which is also the situation here. Take Purdue (10*). |
|||||||
11-11-22 | Colorado v. USC UNDER 66.5 | Top | 17-55 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 48 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and USC at 9:30 pm et on Friday. After getting involved in three straight high-scoring shootouts - two resulting in victories - I can't help but feel the Trojans are looking to catch their breath in what should be a layup against lowly Colorado on Friday. USC needed all the offense it could get in posting wild wins over Arizona and California over the last two weeks. Here, it finally finds itself back in a 'name your score' type of contest against a Buffaloes squad licking its wounds off a 49-10 dismantling at the hands of Oregon last Saturday. Colorado has been held to 20 or fewer points in eight of nine games this season with the only outlier coming in a 42-34 loss to Arizona State two weeks ago - a game where the Buffaloes still mustered only 359 total yards of offense. While USC's offense has been rolling along, there has been an apparent ceiling with it topping out at 45 points over its last eight games (it did score 66 in its season-opener against Rice). I'm not convinced that will be enough to get this one 'over' the lofty total as Colorado isn't likely to end many drives with 7's against a talented Trojans defense that should be in a foul mood after allowing 35 points against an oft-punchless Cal offense last Saturday. You would have to go back seven meetings in this series, all the way to 2014, to find the last time these two teams combined to put up more than 66 total points (which is the posted total at the time of writing). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 3-0 the last three times Colorado has come off consecutive losses against Pac-12 opponents in which it yielded 31+ points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 5-1 in USC's last six contests after gaining 450+ total yards in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-10-22 | Sharks v. Blues UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are struggling mightily right now with St. Louis' issues coming completely out of left field giving all of the talent on its roster, not to mention the fact that it had gotten off to a perfect 3-0 start this season. Since then, the Blues have suffered eight consecutive losses and it's no secret what the problem has been as they simply can't score with any consistency. St. Louis has mustered two goals or less in eight of its last nine games. While the Sharks have been sieve-like defensively of late, they do come off a bye week of sorts, having not played since Saturday. They should be pleased to be hitting the road, where they've played a much cleaner brand of hockey, allowing only 2.7 goals per game. They don't figure to find much success breaking through offensively, however, as they've averaged just 2.0 goals per game on the road and you have to figure Blues head coach Craig Berube gave his team an earful following Tuesday's dreadful defensive effort in a 5-1 loss in Philadelphia. Note that the 'under' is 13-2 in the Blues last 15 games following eight or more consecutive losses, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. Meanwhile, the Sharks have seen the 'under' go 19-4 in their last 23 games after playing four consecutive games in which seven or more total goals were scored, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of just 4.8 goals. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-10-22 | Southern Illinois v. Oklahoma State -7.5 | Top | 61-60 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma State minus the points over Southern Illinois at 8 pm et on Thursday. Off a 94-63 dismantling of Arkansas-Little Rock, Southern Illinois is getting some support at the current number against Oklahoma State on Thursday. I'm not convinced that support is warranted, however. The Salukis quite simply shot the lights out in their season-opener, knocking down 32-of-55 field goal attempts. My concern is they gave Little Rock 18 extra possessions thanks to turnovers, affording them a whopping 64 field goal attempts. Little Rock just couldn't take advantage. Oklahoma State returns four starters from last year's team and while it was also careless with the basketball in its opener, turning it over 17 times, it also forced 19 turnovers. That was the Cowboys M.O. last season and I believe it will be true again in 2022-23. In stark contrast to Southern Illinois, Oklahoma State made good on just 26-of-60 FG attempts in its opener against Texas-Arlington, never sniffing out an ATS cover as a -20.5-point favorite. On a positive note, it limited Arlington to only 59 FG attempts (making good on only 21 of them). I look for the Cowboys to find their shooting legs here and ultimately pull away for a convincing victory. Take Oklahoma State (10*). |
|||||||
11-10-22 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 217.5 | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Hornets are mired in a serious shooting slump right now, due in part to injuries to key players but also just as a result of what looks like a broken offense. They don't figure to pick themselves up off the mat against one of the league's best defensive teams in the Heat on Thursday. Note that Charlotte has knocked down just 36, 33, 32, 42 and 34 field goals over its last five games. In the one outlier the Hornets still scored only 100 points in an eight-point home loss against the Wizards. On a positive note, we have seen Charlotte limit its opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent, yielding just 84, 80 and 75 field goal attempts over its last three contests. The Hornets last two opponents, the Wizards and Blazers, have quite simply shot the lights out, something I don't envision the Heat doing on Thursday. Miami is in a bit of a slump of its own, making good on 40 or fewer field goals in five of its last six games. The pace still isn't there for the Heat as they've hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in nine straight games - of course that's partly by design. Few teams have been as stingy defensively as the Heat check in having allowed 76, 84, 86, 80 and 72 FG attempts over their last five games. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-11 in the Hornets last 34 games following consecutive ATS losses while the Heat have seen the 'under' go an incredible 10-1 in their last 11 home games after losing two of their last three contests, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-10-22 | Tulsa v. Memphis -6.5 | Top | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 55 h 21 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Tulsa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. There was reason to be optimistic about Memphis' Bowl chances entering the 2022 campaign. The Tigers opened with a tough matchup on the road against Mississippi State but from there, reeled off four straight wins and certainly appeared to be in the driver's seat in the AAC. Since then, however, the Tigers haven't gotten any breaks on their way to four consecutive losses. I'm not ready to write off Memphis just yet. Of those four losses, only two came by more than two points and none by more than 10 points with the Tigers putting up 28+ points themselves in all four contests. They face an uphill battle needing two wins in their final three games to gain Bowl eligibility but there's certainly a path to get there. It has to start with a win over Tulsa on Thursday. This has been a fairly disastrous season for the Golden Hurricane, due in part to an injury to QB Davis Brin. Even if Brin is good to go for this game, there's no guarantee Tulsa will be able to put enough points on the board to stay in contention for four quarters. Last week's two-touchdown defeat at home against Tulane illustrated how the season has gone for Tulsa as it failed to reach the end zone until the final minute of the first half - after the Green Wave had already jumped ahead 17-3. It never found the end zone again after that late first half score. Keep in mind, this is a Golden Hurricane squad that at one point gave up four touchdown drives in a 14-minute stretch against Navy and it's methodical triple-option attack earlier this season. They'll certainly have their hands full with Memphis' offense which is led by a baller in QB Seth Henigan. Tulsa has a good one in WR Keylon Stokes but I expect Memphis to give him plenty of attention in this one. Note that the Golden Hurricane will be trying to win consecutive meetings in this series for the first time since reeling off four straight wins over Memphis from 2005 to 2010. The two teams have met seven times since then with Memphis going 2-0 SU and ATS off a loss in this series over that stretch, with those two victories coming by scores of 40-20 and 41-14. Take Memphis (10*). |
|||||||
11-09-22 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 220 | Top | 101-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We're working with a considerably lower total than we saw in the first matchup between these in-city rivals this season. That game was of the low-scoring variety with the Clippers prevailing by a 103-97 score. Here, I'm expecting a different story to unfold, at least as far as the total is concerned. Few teams are struggling to defend as badly as the Lakers. They've allowed five of their last six opponents to get off 95+ field goal attempts with six of their last seven foes knocking down 41+ field goals. In fact, three of their last four opponents have made good on a whopping 47+ field goals. Meanwhile, the Clippers come in on a bit of an offensive run, knocking down 40+ field goals in four straight games - despite getting off only 84, 80, 87 and 79 FG attempts over that stretch. On the flip side, we've yet to see the Clips really lock in defensively as they continue to miss super-stopper Kawhi Leonard due to injury. Seven of the Clippers last 10 opponents have made good on 40+ field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 15-4 in the Lakers last 19 road games (which this technically is) after losing three of their last four contests, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 237.8 points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-09-22 | Grizzlies -6.5 v. Spurs | Top | 124-122 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Spurs offense has cooled considerably following a hot start to the campaign while at the same time their defensive play has sagged, leading to a 1-3 ATS ledger over their last four games. While they did manage to eke out an ATS cover against Denver on Monday, I look for a different story to unfold as the Grizzlies roll into town on Wednesday. Memphis has done a nice job of pushing the pace offensively this season, hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in each of its last three games and eight of its 11 contests overall. That spells trouble for a Spurs squad that has yielded 40+ made field goals in seven straight games, including a whopping 47+ in five of those contests. Meanwhile, San Antonio has gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last six games. Last time out the Spurs attempted just 82 field goals but shot the lights out, ultimately earning the cover in a six-point defeat at the hands of the Nuggets. Here, I'm not convinced the Grizzlies will be as forgiving, noting that they've held three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals and seven of their last eight to 89 or less FG atttempts. Take Memphis (10*). |
|||||||
11-09-22 | Bucks v. Thunder +7.5 | Top | 136-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Thunder in this same matchup on Saturday as Oklahoma City simply couldn't knock down its shots and ultimately fell by double-digits in Milwaukee. Having now dropped four straight meetings with the Bucks, the Thunder will obviously be up for this return match in Oklahoma City on Wednesday and I look for them to challenge for the outright win. While the Thunder have now dropped three consecutive games both SU and ATS, I'm still a believer in what they're doing and feel they have the perfect formula to cash tickets as sizable underdogs, as is the case tonight. Note that OKC has afforded itself plenty of scoring opportunities on a game-by-game basis, getting off 93+ field goal attempts in eight of 10 games to date (aided by overtime on one occasion). It has also made good on 41+ field goals in eight contests. On the flip side, the Thunder check in having limited seven of their last nine opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. Only one of their last five opponents has knocked down 40+ field goals. While most will look to back the Bucks in this bounce-back spot off an ugly loss to the Hawks in Atlanta two nights ago, I don't envision them winning by margin, noting that they've yielded 92+ field goal attempts to five of their last seven opponents. Meanwhile, they've yet to find their rhythm offensively, knocking down 38, 43, 41, 38 and 36 field goals over their last five games. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
|||||||
11-09-22 | Buffalo v. Central Michigan UNDER 54.5 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 12 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Central Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'under' in both of these teams' games last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Bulls and Chippewas match up on Wednesday. Buffalo turned the football over three times in its 45-24 road loss against Ohio last week. Interestingly, the Bulls have forced a whopping eight turnovers over their last two games yet still scored 'only' 58 points combined in those contests. You would have figured all of those extra possessions would lead to more of a points explosion. Here, they'll be facing a Central Michigan squad that will be ultra-focused on taking care of the football after turning it over a whopping eight times itself over its last two games. It's also interesting to note that despite the Chips giving their last two opponents all of those extra possessions they 'only' gave up 56 points over those two games. Both teams want to run the football. Note that Buffalo hasn't thrown for 300+ yards since back on September 10th against FCS squad Holy Cross. Meanwhile, Central Michigan hasn't thrown for 300+ yards since Week 1 against Oklahoma State when it was in comeback mode for most of the game and racked up 424 yards through the air. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-2 in Buffalo's last 12 games when playing on the road after a road loss against a MAC opponent, resulting in an average total of just 50.1 points in that situation. The 'under' is also 4-2 in the Bulls last six games after their previous two contests totalled 60+ points. CMU has seen the 'under' cash four of the last times it has come off a game where it lost the turnover battle by at least two. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-08-22 | Ohio v. Miami-OH +2.5 | Top | 37-21 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami-Ohio plus the points over Ohio at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this spot sets up for the Redhawks as they come off their bye week knowing they need two victories in their final three games to earn Bowl eligibility. Anything other than a Bowl appearance would be a disappointment after they not only reached one but defeated North Texas in that contest last December. Miami-Ohio's offense hasn't put up the same numbers it did a year ago although it's worth noting that unit didn't really get rolling until November. Ohio has reeled off four straight victories, making it six on the season so it has already gained Bowl eligibility. I didn't come away overly impressed despite the lopsided nature of its 45-24 win over Buffalo last week. The Bulls offered very little defensive resistance in that game but I expect Miami-Ohio to provide a much more difficult challenge in that regard here. I mentioned that the Redhawks offense didn't really get rolling until November last season. That's been par for the course as Miami-Ohio checks in 77-51 ATS in its last 128 games played in the second half of the season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.5 points along the way. Here, the Redhawks will be playing with revenge after dropping a tough 35-33 decision on the road against Ohio last year. They were actually shut out in the entire first half in that game and couldn't find any semblance of a ground game, but still hung in there and lost by 'only' two points. Note that the underdog has cashed in each of the last three meetings in this series (last year Ohio was a +7 home underdog). Here, we'll also note that the Bobcats are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite while Miami-Ohio checks in a profitable 5-3 ATS in its last eight games after losing two of its last three contests ATS, as is the case here. Take Miami-Ohio (10*). |
|||||||
11-08-22 | Golden Knights v. Maple Leafs -117 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Vegas at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Maple Leafs have proven to be a streaky team in recent years and this season has been no different. Toronto entered the start of the month having dropped four straight games. Since then, they've reeled off three straight wins, including a near-perfect road game in Carolina on Sunday. The Golden Knights come in red hot as well, winners of seven games in a row. That streak started with a victory over these same Leafs in Las Vegas. It's worth noting, however, in nine previous matchups between these two teams, the Knights have never managed to post consecutive victories, failing to do so in each of their last two tries, which both came in Toronto. Interestingly, the Leafs are an incredible 23-2 in their last 25 home games following a road game, which is the situation here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that spot. It's worth noting that the Knights had been playing every other day going back to October 28th. Here, they come off back-to-back off days and I look for Toronto to get the jump on them as a result on Tuesday. Take Toronto (10*). |
|||||||
11-07-22 | Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 231 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and San Antonio at 9:40 pm et on Monday. These two teams just met on Saturday, posting an 'under' result as the Nuggets rolled to a 126-101 victory. We've seen an adjustment to the total in advance of Monday's rematch but I believe it's moving in the wrong direction. You could argue that San Antonio is the league's worst defensive team right now. The Spurs have allowed their last six opponents to stuff the boxscore, knocking down 52, 47, 40, 57, 42 and 53 field goals. While they did limit Denver to only 80 field goal attempts on Saturday, that was on the road. It's been a different story at home, where San Antonio has allowed four of its five opponents to get off 94+ field goal attempts. It's been a similar story for the Nuggets on the road, where they've allowed all five of their opponents to make good on 42+ field goals. Prior to Saturday's game, Denver had allowed each of its previous four opponents to attempt 90+ field goals. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints UNDER 47 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Year (1H). My selection is on the first half ‘under’ between Baltimore and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. With both teams missing a number of key contributors on offense and both confident off wins last week, not looking to relinquish the momentum here, I’m anticipating a relatively low-scoring first half on Monday night in New Orleans. Note that the first half ‘under’ is a perfect 6-0 with Baltimore coming off three ATS losses in its last four games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average first half total of just 13.3 points. Meanwhile, the first half ‘under’ is 11-3 with the Saints listed as an underdog over the last two seasons, which is also the situation here, leading to an average first half total of 19.9 points in that spot. Without Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman - their two biggest offensive threats apart from Lamar Jackson - I look for the Ravens to take a more methodical approach on offense, at least early in this game. Meanwhile, the Saints will be wary of QB Andy Dalton's tendency to turn the ball over (remembering that ugly Thursday night loss in Arizona two games back) against an opportunistic Ravens defense. I'm confident we'll see the Saints offense run through RB Alvin Kamara for the most part on Monday, noting that the Ravens have yielded 4.4 yards per rush this season. New Orleans best chance at winning this game likely comes from churning out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to shorten the game and give Jackson as few opportunities as possible to make an impact. Take the first half ‘under’ (10*). |
|||||||
11-06-22 | Seahawks +2 v. Cardinals | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Not to oversimplify things but I don't think the Cardinals are a very good football team. Meanwhile, Seattle remains as underrated a team as you'll find in the NFL, even off last week's impressive win over the Giants. The Seahawks have already handled the Cardinals once and while Arizona now has WR DeAndre Hopkins at its disposal, I'm not convinced his presence is enough to turn the tide in this rematch. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker has been a massive get for the Seahawks with the injury to Rashaad Penny proving to be a blessing in disguise. That's not to mention the departure of Russell Wilson which has given Geno Smith a run at redemption and he's taken full advantage. Plus we have a Seattle defense that is seemingly getting stronger with each passing week. Take Seattle (10*). |
|||||||
11-06-22 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 49.5 | Top | 9-15 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
NFC Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Lions home loss to the Dolphins last week and were fortunate to do so as Detroit's offense was non-existent for the entire second half. Here, both teams know exactly what to expect from their opponent in this divisional showdown. The Packers defense has been putting the clamps on opposing passing games but has proven vulnerable against the run. Detroit quite simply hasn't shown any tendency to stick with the run, abandoning it on a weekly basis, albeit somewhat game script dependent. Detroit's defense didn't have any answers for the Dolphins multi-pronged offensive attack last week but catch a break here, facing a depleted Packers offense that hasn't been able to get it going for any sustained periods this season. Last year's two matchups in this series were of the high-scoring variety. I think we see a different story here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-06-22 | Dolphins v. Bears +4.5 | Top | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. I can't help but feel bettors are overreacting to the Bears dealing Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith away prior to the trade deadline. I think Chicago's ugly 12-7 home loss to Washington three games back was something of a watershed moment for the team. Since then, they've put up 62 points in splitting a pair of games against New England and Dallas. They made a move to acquire WR Chase Claypool at the trade deadline and while he's unlikely to make an immediate impact here, I do think the Bears offense can feast on a still-undermanned Dolphins secondary. Too many points for the home side here. Take Chicago (10*). |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Ducks v. Sharks -135 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Jose over Anaheim at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Sharks in this same matchup earlier this week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well in this 'revenge' spot, noting that the previous contest could have certainly gone either way as it was decided in a shootout. The Ducks check in having allowed a whopping 29 goals over their last six games and figure to get lit up again here. Note that Anaheim is a woeful 6-26 when coming off two wins in their last three games over the last three seasons, outscored by 1.6 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Sharks are a profitable 25-21 after losing three of their last four games over the same stretch, as is the case here. Take San Jose (10*). |
|||||||
11-05-22 | California v. USC UNDER 60.5 | Top | 35-41 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between California and USC at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. After getting involved in consecutive track meets on the road against Utah and Arizona, I look for USC to 'manage' this very winnable matchup with Cal on Saturday. The Golden Bears are mired in another trying campaign having lost four in row entering Saturday's matchup. They've had only two breakout performances offensively, one of those coming against FCS squad Cal-Davis and the other against the aforementioned Arizona Wildcats, who boast one of the worst defenses in the FBS. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 39-21 in Cal's last 60 road games following an 'over' result, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 52.9 points in that spot. The 'under' is also 28-14 in USC's last 42 contests after scoring 37+ points in consecutive games, which is also the situation here, resulting in 54.9 total points on average. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Thunder +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Thunder on Thursday as they couldn't contain the Nuggets in the fourth quarter in an eventual 12-point loss. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them, however, as they hit the road to face the Bucks in Milwaukee. Note that Oklahoma City continues to do a good job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities, yielding 88 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time in seven straight games. The Nuggets quite simply shot the lights out against them on Thursday, something I don't expect the banged-up Bucks to do in a back-to-back spot on Saturday. Milwaukee has been defending well, but still allows far too many opportunities for its liking, with four of its last five opponents getting off 92+ field goal attempts. The Thunder figure to be more than capable of taking advantage of those opportunities as they've made good on 41+ field goals in seven straight games and exactly 45 in each of their last two contests. While the Bucks won in a rout the last time these two teams met, a weaker Thunder squad took them to task in last year's meeting here in Milwaukee, losing by only seven points as a double-digit underdog. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
|||||||
11-05-22 | UNLV +5.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 10-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over San Diego State at 7 pm et on Saturday. San Diego State has been fairly high on my fade list this season and I see this as another fine opportunity to do so as the Aztecs face UNLV on Saturday. The Runnin' Rebels are licking their wounds on the heels of three straight losses following a 4-1 start to the campaign. Injuries have had something to do with their slide but the guys that are healthy need to start showing up and I'm confident they will off the bye week. If ever there was a perfect example of how far the Aztecs have fallen it wast last week's fall-from-ahead loss against Fresno State. San Diego State teams of the past would have had no trouble putting that game away with a 28-10 late in the third quarter. But this year's Aztecs squad can't run the football and control the clock the way previous editions have been able to. It seems that the more QB Jalen Mayden is asked to do the more trouble he gets into. With that being said, Virginia Tech transfer Braxton Burmeister certainly wasn't the answer under center either. All told, this is a San Diego State team that struggles to do the little things well, including playing fundamentally-sound defense and I expect the Rebels to take advantage here, even with QB Doug Brumfield still sidelined with a concussion. Keep in mind, Cam Friel was last year's top passer for the team while Harrison Bailey is a Tennessee transfer that most thought would be the starter this year heading into the season. With an extra week of practice I do think we'll see a sharper performance from the UNLV offense here. Take UNLV (10*). |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Iowa v. Purdue OVER 38 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa and Purdue at 12 noon et on Saturday. Iowa opened the season with four 'under' results in its first five games but that changed in a 54-10 rout at Ohio State two weeks ago. That was a bit of a back-breaker of a defeat and from there we saw the Hawkeyes essentially ease off the pressure valve and the result was a 33-point explosion in a 20-point win over Northwestern last week. Now Iowa goes back on the road to face Purdue, and I'm not anticipating the type of defensive slugfest the oddsmakers are projecting. Note that we've seen a strong home-road dichotomy in terms of high and low-scoring games involving the Boilermakers in recent years. That's continued to a certain extent this year. Note that the Boilers have baited the likes of Penn State and Nebraska into back-and-forth shootouts here at home with those two contests totalling 66 and 80 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 16-6 in Iowa's last 22 games after losing three of its last four games, resulting in an average total of 50.5 points. Meanwhile, the Boilers have seen their last six games go 'over' the total after winning four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 69.3 points in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-04-22 | Blazers v. Suns -10 | Top | 108-106 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I would argue that no team has played as well as the Suns out of the gate this season. Of course, playing five of seven games at home has helped. They'll stay home in a revenge-minded role against the Blazers here - the team that handed them their lone loss of the season to date. Keep in mind, Portland is no longer at full strength, missing Damian Lillard and possible Anfernee Simons as well as he's questionable to play due to a foot injury. The Suns have incredibly knocked down 40+ field goals in all seven games this season. On the flip side, they've held six of seven opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only one of Phoenix's opponents has managed to get off more than 87 field goal attempts and that was Golden State in a game the Suns won by 29 points. Take Phoenix (10*). |
|||||||
11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans +14 | Top | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 58 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. No one is giving the Texans any sort of chance at springing the upset against the undefeated Eagles on Thursday night. While I'm not about to predict Houston will win this game outright, I do think it can keep within arm's reach for four quarters against Philadelphia. The Eagles had no trouble laying waste to the Steelers on Sunday. That was a far worse defensive team than they'll face on Thursday, however. The Texans actually have some semblance of a pass defense led by rookie corner Derek Stingley. For the Eagles to keep their undefeated record intact I think they'll need to involve their ground attack heavily, effectively shortening this game which plays into our hands with two touchdowns in our back pocket with the Texans. Houston looked lifeless against Tennessee last Sunday as they were mercilessly run all over by RB Derrick Henry. The Eagles don't possess that type of bruising, relentless back. RB Miles Sanders will get his, but again, I'm not anticipating the same sort of beatdown on the Texans defensive front. Offensively, Houston has a workhorse to lean on in the form of RB Dameon Pierce and you can run on these Eagles as they've allowed just shy of 5.0 yards per rush and just lost key run-stopper, nose tackle Jordan Davis to an ankle injury. Like the Eagles, I feel the Texans offensive gameplan will work to shorten this game with several long, clock-churning drives. Note that the Eagles are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last six contests after winning consecutive games ATS. Meanwhile, the Texans have been listed as underdogs of between 10.5 and 14 points just twice over the last three seasons, covering the number on both of those occasions. Take Houston (10*). |
|||||||
11-02-22 | Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The 'over' has cashed in each of Dallas' last five games as the Mavs have knocked down 41+ field goals in four of those five contests. Keep in mind, we saw two games go to overtime over that stretch. Dallas has limited each of its six opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time this season and I expect it to keep Utah in check to certain extent here as well. The Jazz had a stretch earlier this season where they got off 93+ field goal attempts in three consecutive games, knocking down 43+ field goals in each of those contests. Since then, they've gotten off just 90, 91, 87 and 89 FG attempts over their last four games. I'm certainly anticipating some regression here after they laid waste to an undermanned Grizzlies defense in a two-game set in Salt Lake City over the weekend, making good on 45 and 42 field goals in those two contests. Different story here as the Mavs build off Sunday's game in which they limited the Magic to only 37 made field goals (that contest still found its way 'over' the total). Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-02-22 | Celtic +2 v. Real Madrid | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
Champions League Game of the Month. My selection is on Celtic +2 goals over Real Madrid at 1:45 pm et on Wednesday. Real Madrid blanked Celtic 3-0 when these two squads met in early September. While the Scottish side's hopes of advancing to the final 16 have been dashed, I do expect it to still put up a better fight as these two take part in a return match in Madrid on Wednesday. Celtic enters this contest having gone undefeated in its last five matches across all competitions. To illustrate its fine form, it has struck first in each of those five contests while carrying a lead into halftime in four of them. This will obviously be a stiff challenge for Celtic as Real Madrid searches for a victory to wrap up first place in Group F. With that being said, the Spanish side will be without Karim Benzema and might not have its usual fresh legs here in Champions League action, noting that it just wrapped up a month of October that featured nine fixtures. While Celtic have nothing to play for in this particular tournament, there is the matter of pride and after being shut out at the hands of Real Madrid on home soil two months ago, I'm confident we'll see it rise to the occasion here. It's worth noting that to find the last time Celtic lost a match by 3+ goals, you would have to go all the way back to that previous date with Madrid. Take Celtic +2 goals (10*). |
|||||||
11-01-22 | Buffalo v. Ohio UNDER 58.5 | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Ohio at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While Buffalo is coming off an 'over' result, both of these teams are trending to the 'under' lately. The Bulls have seen three of their last four games stay 'under' the total and the same goes for Ohio. The only game that went 'over' the total during that stretch for the Bobcats came against the lowly Akron Zips in a contest where Ohio jumped ahead big early and eased off the gas defensively in a wild 55-34 win. Since then, the Bobcats have seen their last two games total just 47 and 41 points. Both teams want their offense to run through their ground attack. I do think both can find some success in that regard but that likely leads to plenty of long, clock-churning drives. Note that Buffalo has done an excellent job of stamping out opposing passing games, yielding more than 21 completions only twice while having yet to allow an opponent throw for 300+ yards. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-6 the last 25 times Ohio has come off three straight wins in conference play with that spot producing an average total of only 45.9 points. The 'under' has gone 8-5 the last 13 times the Bulls have come off a game that totalled 60+ points, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-01-22 | Bulls +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 108-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Bulls are coming off consecutive losses but I like them to bounce back as they catch the Nets in a back-to-back spot off a rare win over the Pacers last night. Brooklyn is still just 2-5 on the season and needed to shoot the lights out to secure a win (but not a cover) against Indiana. Note that the Nets have still only managed to get off 89 or fewer field goal attempts in six of seven games this season. Last night, they hoisted up just 80 shots against the defensively-challenged Pacers. Defensively, Brooklyn has allowed 40+ made field goals in six of seven games. The only occasion where the Nets held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals it still lost by double-digits against Milwaukee. Chicago, on the other hand, has held three of its last four opponents to 39 or fewer made field goals. Only one of its seven opponents has managed to get off more than 86 field goal attempts and that was a game it won by 18 points against Boston. The last time these two teams met, Brooklyn won in a rout last March. Keep in mind, the Nets were playing with triple in-season revenge in that spot. Different story here. Take Chicago (10*). |
|||||||
11-01-22 | Senators v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results in their most recent game with the Senators notably yielding a whopping 58 shots on goal in a 5-3 loss to the Panthers. They've had a couple of days off to shake off that ugly performance and I fully expect the gritty Sens to rebound with a much sharper performance here. Meanwhile, the Lightning are in a bit of a hangover spot, returning home off a successful three-game road trip to California. The Bolts are unlikely to provide such an onslaught of shots as we saw from the Panthers, noting that they've fired 30 or fewer shots on goal in four consecutive games. Ottawa was on fire offensively for a four-game stretch in mid-October but has now scored just five goals in its last two games. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 11-2 the last 13 times the Senators have played on the road after giving up 5+ goals in their previous game, resulting in an average total of 5.1 goals. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Cleveland at 8:15 pm et on Monday. High-scoring games have been the norm in this series in recent years but I look for a different story to unfold on Monday night in Cleveland. The Browns offense has cooled off considerably following a hot start to the season. After scoring 26, 30 and 29 points in their first three games, they've put up just 20, 28, 15 and 20 points over their last four. Now they face a Bengals defense that I believe is far better than most give it credit for. The Cincinnati offense gets all of the hype with Joe Burrow and Ja'marr Chase going off on a weekly basis (Chase will of course miss this game - more on that in a moment). However, the defense has been outstanding, holding five of seven opponents to 20 points or less this season. Opposing passing games have been completely stymied and it's tough to envision Browns QB Jacob Brissett changing that trend, especially with underrated TE David Njoku slated to miss. Cleveland has topped out at 258 passing yards in a game this season. You know what you're going to get from the Browns as they look to run their offense through RB Nick Chubb (and Kareem Hunt). Theoretically, Cleveland is in line to feast with the Bengals missing key run stoppers D.J. Reader and Josh Tupou. However, rookie Zach Carter and Jay Tufele have stepped up in their absence. I mentioned that Cincinnati will be without WR Ja'marr Chase for this one. His absence can't be understated in my opinion. Yes, the Bengals are saying all of the right things with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, not to mention TE Hayden Hurst capable of picking up some of the slack. But you just don't replace a guy like Chase. With CB Denzel Ward among those sidelined for the Browns, this is a major break facing the Bengals without their top weapon in the passing game. I really think the Cincinnati offense will flow through RB Joe Mixon in this game as the Browns have proven vulnerable against the run. With that being said, I can't help but feel we'll see plenty of long, clock-churning drives from both offenses. Note that the 'under' is 12-3 in the Bengals last 15 road games and a perfect 10-0 in Cincinnati's last 10 games after being held to fewer than 100 rushing yards in consecutive games, as is the case here. The 'under' is a long-term 48-25 with the Browns playing at home off consecutive losses and 13-4 when playing at home after losing the turnover battle in three straight games. Those angles make sense when you consider the Bengals will likely look to get their ground game going again, most notably Mixon while the Browns do everything they can to take care of the football, perhaps at the expense of aggressiveness in the passing game. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-31-22 | 76ers v. Wizards +4.5 | Top | 118-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The 76ers have picked themselves up after dropping the opening game of their current four-game road trip, posting consecutive wins (SU and ATS) over the Raptors and Bulls. Philadelphia is still having a tough enough time just getting shots off, however, noting that it has hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in all seven games this season. It has quite simply knocked down its shots at an incredibly high rate during its current road trip but I expect it to run into some trouble against the Wizards in Washington on Monday. The Wizards have quietly been locking down their opponents, yet to allow more than 41 made field goals in a game this season. They've limited three of their last five opponents to 81 or fewer field goal attempts. Yesterday, Washington fell by a score of 112-94 in Boston as it shot a miserable 38.8% from the field. Prior to that, the Wiz had knocked down 41+ field goals in all five games this season. Note that Washington took two of three meetings between these two teams last season and has won 30 of the last 50 matchups between these two franchises in the nation's capital. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
10-30-22 | Dolphins v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 76 h 44 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up as a potential shootout inside the friendly confines of Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday. We inexplicably missed with the 'over' in Miami's strange 16-10 win over the Steelers last Sunday night (that contest featured a scoreless second half). The Dolphins jumped ahead early and then eased off the gas against a subpar Steelers squad - something I don't think they can afford to do against the Lions on Sunday. We were also on the 'under' in Detroit's rather uneventful loss in Dallas. I saw a lot of support for the 'over' in that contest last Sunday but I think those 'over' bettors were a week too early as Detroit was still nursing some key contributors back to health (and also lost Aman-Ra St. Brown to concussion protocols early in the game). St. Brown is expected back this week and should pace the Lions in what sets up as a dream matchup against a depleted Dolphins secondary. Detroit has been starved for an offensive breakout over the last two games - scoring a grand total of six points against the Patriots and Cowboys. This looks like an ideal spot for QB Jared Goff and the offense to bounce back with Miami missing Byron Jones, Nik Needham and now strong safety Brandon Jones as well after he tore his ACL. The Fins makeshift secondary did hold up alright against the Steelers, although Pittsburgh wasn't all that aggressive in that game. I expect a different story to unfold here as a banged-up Xavien Howard (he's been dealing with groin/quad injuries all season long) is left on an island against a loaded Lions offense. On the flip side, there's little reason to believe that Detroit's woeful defense can hold up well for a second straight game. We certainly saw flashes of brilliance from the Miami offense in last Sunday's win over the Steelers. QB Tua Tagovailoa looked no worse for wear after suffering multiple concussions, deftly distributing the ball to his playmakers. The Lions have been getting roasted by the better offenses they've faced all season, most notably allowing 5.4 yards per rush attempt. With Miami likely to smash on the ground, that only serves to set up plenty of big plays through the air against a very beatable Lions secondary. I think there's a good chance we see this one go back-and-forth all afternoon long with neither defense able to string together many stops. Note that the 'over' is 7-3 in the Dolphins last 10 games following consecutive 'under' results, which is the situation here. Better still, the 'over' is 9-2 in the Lions last 11 games when priced as a home underdog of a touchdown or less. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-30-22 | Dolphins v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 31-27 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 7 m | Show |
Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. I see this as a smash spot for the Lions, particularly on offense, as they check in starved for a positive outcome following four consecutive losses including back-to-back road losses against the Patriots and Cowboys in which they scored a grand total of six points. Something has to give in this matchup as the Dolphins enter riding an 0-4 ATS skid while the Lions have dropped the cash in three consecutive games. The Fins will be out of their element playing in a domed environment, noting that they'll be looking forward to flipping the calendar page having gone a miserable 0-8 ATS in their last eight October games. There were certainly a lot of positives for Miami to take away from last Sunday night's 16-10 victory over the Steelers. However, I didn't like the way their offense stagnated and I did feel their secondary and defense as a whole looked vulnerable, missing a number of key parts and suffering yet another injury blow with strong safety Brandon Jones tearing his ACL. Keep in mind, this was already a defense that was without Xavien Howard's running mate, Byron Jones and slot corner Nik Needham. Howard could be left on an island in this one and he's been dealing with nagging groin and quad injuries all season long (he missed practice to start the week once again). While the Lions did lose WR Aman-Ra St. Brown to concussion protocols in last week's game against Dallas, all indications are that he'll be good to go for this one as he didn't actually get diagnosed with a concussion (the league's new protocols dictated that he leave the game and not return). Speaking of returning players, Detroit should have RB De'Andre Swift back for the first time in a long time after he was a somewhat surprising scratch last week. The Lions wanted to give him one more week to recover but after he was a full participant in practice to start the week, he should be back on the field for Sunday's game. That's good news as the Dolphins have had a difficult time defending pass-catching running backs like Swift (and Jamaal Williams) this season. I see this as a breakout spot for a Lions offense that is starving for such an opportunity given the way they've lagged in recent games. Remember, this was one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL through the first month of the season. Here, we'll note that Detroit has gone an exceptional 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following consecutive losses by 14+ points, as is the case here. Take Detroit (10*). |
|||||||
10-30-22 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers were written off by most following the trade of Christian McCaffrey, not to mention the firing of head coach Matt Rhule (I would actually consider that move to be addition by subtraction). Rather than hang their heads, the Panthers came out with something to prove last Sunday, routing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That victory came at home. Now they hit the road to face the upstart Falcons in Atlanta. I'm not convinced this matchup is quite as daunting as it may seem for the visitors. Carolina will be looking to secure a third straight win and cover here in Atlanta after outlasting the Falcons by a 19-13 score on the road last season. Atlanta is dealing with a cluster of injuries in its secondary and will sorely miss its two two corners in A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward in this one. Panthers QB P.J. Walker was given a vote of confidence from the team this week, named the starter despite Baker Mayfield apparently being healthy enough to return (he'll be in a backup role here). The run-first nature of the Falcons plays into the hands of the team catching points, eating up valuable clock most weeks. Last Sunday, Atlanta attempted just 13 passes despite game script leading you to believe it should be bombing away, trailing by a considerable margin all afternoon long in Cincinnati. I expect the Falcons to stick to the script here, even against a Panthers defense that has been relatively stout against the run, yielding just 3.5 yards per rush on the road this season. Carolina finally got its ground game going in last week's win and I expect some carry-over here, noting that Atlanta has been ripped for 5.4 yards per rush at home this season. Look for the Panthers to churn out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to effectively shorten this game - that gives them their best chance of securing a second straight victory in my opinion. Take Carolina (10*). |
|||||||
10-29-22 | Stanford v. UCLA -16.5 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 106 h 37 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. Credit Stanford for turning its season around with consecutive wins over Notre Dame and Arizona State. The Cardinal were circling the drain off to a 1-4 start prior to that, with their lone win having come against FCS squad Colgate. I think their run ends here, however, as they head to Westwood to face a UCLA squad that should be in a foul mood off a 45-30 loss at Oregon last week (we won with the 'over' in that game). The Stanford defense has held up well over the last two games but those were favorable matchups, unlike this one. Keep in mind, earlier this season we saw the Cardinal allow three Oregon State touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, at home no less, nearly coughing up a 24-10 lead. The week previous to that there was a stretch where they allowed three Oregon touchdowns in just over four minutes of action. There were also poor performances against USC and Washington. In that same vein, I look for the Bruins offense to go off in this matchup. UCLA had no defensive answers for Oregon in Eugene last Saturday but few teams do these days. This is about as close to the electric Ducks offense of yesteryear that we've seen in quite some time. Here, the Bruins should benefit from facing a pocket-passer of a QB in Tanner McKee. You would have to go back three games to find the last time he threw a touchdown pass and he's no threat to run, gaining positive yardage on the ground just once all season (he gained five yards on two attempts against Oregon State). Note that UCLA checks in an incredible 10-1 ATS when coming off three straight games allowing 31+ points, as is the case here. Meanwhile, despite the victory last week, Stanford is still just 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games against Pac-12 opponents. Take UCLA (10*). |
|||||||
10-29-22 | Pacers v. Nets UNDER 235 | Top | 125-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have struggled out of the gates this season although Indiana did pick up a much-needed win in a high-scoring affair in Washington last night. The Nets have had a tough enough time just getting their shots off on offense, attempting fewer than 90 field goals in regulation time in all five games to date. We have seen them clamp down on the opposition over their last two contests, limiting the Bucks to 88 field goal attempts and the Mavericks to just 73 in regulation time last time out. The Pacers two lowest FGA numbers of the season to date have come in their last two games. They've knocked down 38, 37 and 41 field goals over their last three contests. On the flip side, Indiana has limited four of its last five opponents to 87 FGA or fewer. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-29-22 | USC v. Arizona UNDER 76 | Top | 45-37 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 34 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between USC and Arizona at 7 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Arizona's most recent game - a wild 49-39 loss against the Huskies in Washington two weeks ago. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Wildcats return home to host USC off their bye week on Saturday. The fact that Arizona was able to keep pace (to a certain extent) with Washington was no big surprise as that's been the Huskies M.O. this season - jump ahead and then let their opponent back in the game. The Wildcats have bombed away for 400+ passing yards against the likes of Cal, Colorado and Washington but I suspect they'll have a much more difficult time doing so against the well-rested Trojans here. USC is coming off a wild game of its own, falling by a 43-42 score on the road against Utah on October 15th. That marked the first time this season that USC allowed more than 257 yards through the air and I'm confident it will make amends here. Note that the Trojans have topped out at 42 points in three road games this season and I'm not sure even that crooked number would be enough to get this one 'over' the lofty total. I don't think USC wants to get involved in another track meet here, knowing that Arizona does have the QB in Jayden De Laura and receiving corps to potentially pull off a stunner. Instead, I look for the Trojans to lean on their ground attack, as they often have this season (they've topped out at 25 pass completions in a game), churning out long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten proceedings and stamp out any hope of a Wildcats upset. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 53-31 with USC coming off a game in which it scored 42+ points while the 'under' is 21-9 in Arizona's last 30 home contests after dropping consecutive games in-conference, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-29-22 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State UNDER 56 | Top | 0-48 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Kansas State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. After suffering a bad beat with the 'under' in Oklahoma State's double-overtime loss at TCU two weeks ago we went back to the well with the same play as the Cowboys returned home to host Texas last week. Unfortunately that result didn't go our way either as a high-scoring first half was ultimately the downfall for 'under' bettors such as ourselves. Here, I won't hesitate to take another shot with the 'under', however, as the Cowboys head back on the road to face upstart Kansas State, which checks in off a 38-28 loss to TCU last Saturday. In that loss against TCU, Kansas State lost do-it-all QB Adrian Martinez to injury. It remains to be seen whether he can play this week although it sounds like he's on the doubtful end of the spectrum. Regardless, I do expect the Oklahoma State defense to step up and carry over some positive momentum after holding Texas out of the end zone over the game's final 33+ minutes in a tight affair last week. It was the opposite story for Kansas State. It jumped ahead 28-10 in the second quarter against TCU and probably thought it would be able to cruise from there. Things didn't go as planned as the Horned Frogs went on to score the game's final 28 points in a 10-point victory. Without Martinez, the Wildcats were unable to score over the game's final 38+ minutes. Note that none of the last four meetings between these two teams over the last four years have come all that close to getting 'over' the total we're dealing with this week. The fact that the Cowboys have seen each of their last five games and six of seven overall go 'over' the total this season is a big reason why we're being offered such a generous total. Keep in mind, Kansas State is just one game removed from a contest that totalled just 19 points against Iowa State. Earlier in the season, the Wildcats were upset at home against Tulane in a game that reached only 27 points. Noting that the 'under' remains 40-23 in Oklahoma State's last 63 road games following an 'over' result and 35-17 the last 52 times it has gone 'away' off consecutive games totalling 70+ points, we'll go back to the well with the 'under' on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Sean Murphy ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-13-22 | Islanders v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
12-12-22 | Wolves v. Blazers UNDER 232.5 | Top | 112-133 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
12-11-22 | Browns v. Bengals OVER 47 | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 52 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 34 m | Show |
12-08-22 | Raiders -6 v. Rams | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
12-07-22 | Rangers +135 v. Golden Knights | Top | 5-1 | Win | 135 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
12-07-22 | Hawks +2 v. Knicks | Top | 89-113 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
12-06-22 | Kings v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
12-06-22 | Spain v. Morocco +1 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 41.5 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
12-04-22 | Browns v. Texans OVER 46.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
12-04-22 | Browns v. Texans +8 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
12-04-22 | Commanders v. Giants +2.5 | Top | 20-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
12-03-22 | Wichita State +7.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 50-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
12-03-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Troy UNDER 48.5 | Top | 26-45 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
12-02-22 | Pelicans v. Spurs UNDER 233 | Top | 117-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
12-02-22 | Utah +2.5 v. USC | Top | 47-24 | Win | 103 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
12-01-22 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Flames | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
12-01-22 | Germany -2.5 v. Costa Rica | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
11-30-22 | Wizards +6.5 v. Nets | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
11-30-22 | Rangers v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
11-29-22 | Clippers v. Blazers -3 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
11-28-22 | Devils -102 v. Rangers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
11-27-22 | Packers +6.5 v. Eagles | Top | 33-40 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
11-27-22 | Rams +16 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-26 | Push | 0 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
11-27-22 | Canada v. Croatia OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 115 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
11-26-22 | Air Force v. San Diego State +2 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
11-25-22 | Lakers v. Spurs +5.5 | Top | 105-94 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
11-25-22 | UCLA -10.5 v. California | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
11-25-22 | Iran +0.5 v. Wales | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
11-24-22 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss UNDER 60.5 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
11-24-22 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 45.5 | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
11-24-22 | Bills v. Lions UNDER 54.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
11-23-22 | Blackhawks v. Stars -1.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
11-23-22 | Pelicans v. Spurs +7.5 | Top | 129-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
11-23-22 | Canada v. Belgium OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
11-22-22 | Pistons v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
11-21-22 | 49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 43.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
11-20-22 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 52 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
11-20-22 | Toronto v. Winnipeg UNDER 49 | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 56 h 52 m | Show |
11-20-22 | Cowboys v. Vikings UNDER 48.5 | Top | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 50 h 27 m | Show |
11-20-22 | Lions +3 v. Giants | Top | 31-18 | Win | 100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
11-19-22 | Jazz v. Blazers OVER 222.5 | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
11-19-22 | Georgia v. Kentucky +22.5 | Top | 16-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
11-19-22 | Miami-FL +19.5 v. Clemson | Top | 10-40 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
11-19-22 | Virginia Tech v. Liberty UNDER 47 | Top | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
11-18-22 | San Diego State v. New Mexico +14.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 46 m | Show |
11-18-22 | Celtics v. Pelicans OVER 226.5 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
11-18-22 | Baylor v. Virginia UNDER 133.5 | Top | 79-86 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
11-16-22 | Kings v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
11-16-22 | Rockets v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
11-15-22 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 212 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
11-14-22 | Commanders +11 v. Eagles | Top | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
11-14-22 | Raptors v. Pistons UNDER 220 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
11-13-22 | Chargers v. 49ers -7.5 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
11-13-22 | Chargers v. 49ers OVER 45 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
11-13-22 | Texans v. Giants OVER 40.5 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
11-13-22 | Browns +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 17-39 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
11-12-22 | San Jose State v. San Diego State UNDER 41.5 | Top | 27-43 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 43 m | Show |
11-12-22 | California v. Oregon State -13.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 56 h 40 m | Show |
11-12-22 | South Carolina v. Florida UNDER 59.5 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 20 m | Show |
11-12-22 | Purdue +6.5 v. Illinois | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 46 h 25 m | Show |
11-11-22 | Colorado v. USC UNDER 66.5 | Top | 17-55 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 48 m | Show |
11-10-22 | Sharks v. Blues UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
11-10-22 | Southern Illinois v. Oklahoma State -7.5 | Top | 61-60 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
11-10-22 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 217.5 | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
11-10-22 | Tulsa v. Memphis -6.5 | Top | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 55 h 21 m | Show |
11-09-22 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 220 | Top | 101-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
11-09-22 | Grizzlies -6.5 v. Spurs | Top | 124-122 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
11-09-22 | Bucks v. Thunder +7.5 | Top | 136-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
11-09-22 | Buffalo v. Central Michigan UNDER 54.5 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 12 m | Show |
11-08-22 | Ohio v. Miami-OH +2.5 | Top | 37-21 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
11-08-22 | Golden Knights v. Maple Leafs -117 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
11-07-22 | Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 231 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints UNDER 47 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
11-06-22 | Seahawks +2 v. Cardinals | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
11-06-22 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 49.5 | Top | 9-15 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
11-06-22 | Dolphins v. Bears +4.5 | Top | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
11-05-22 | Ducks v. Sharks -135 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
11-05-22 | California v. USC UNDER 60.5 | Top | 35-41 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
11-05-22 | Thunder +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
11-05-22 | UNLV +5.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 10-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
11-05-22 | Iowa v. Purdue OVER 38 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
11-04-22 | Blazers v. Suns -10 | Top | 108-106 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans +14 | Top | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 58 m | Show |
11-02-22 | Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
11-02-22 | Celtic +2 v. Real Madrid | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
11-01-22 | Buffalo v. Ohio UNDER 58.5 | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
11-01-22 | Bulls +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 108-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
11-01-22 | Senators v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
10-31-22 | 76ers v. Wizards +4.5 | Top | 118-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
10-30-22 | Dolphins v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 76 h 44 m | Show |
10-30-22 | Dolphins v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 31-27 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 7 m | Show |
10-30-22 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
10-29-22 | Stanford v. UCLA -16.5 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 106 h 37 m | Show |
10-29-22 | Pacers v. Nets UNDER 235 | Top | 125-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
10-29-22 | USC v. Arizona UNDER 76 | Top | 45-37 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 34 m | Show |
10-29-22 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State UNDER 56 | Top | 0-48 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |