ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver +3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET

These two teams just met a few weeks ago with KC getting a tight 30-27 win.  Denver is ready for revenge after outgaining the Chiefs 464 on 6.4 YPP to 273 on 3.9 YPP in that game but still coming up short.  KC didn’t score an offensive point in that game until there was just 30 seconds remaining in the 3rd quarter.  The Chiefs had 9 points at that point in the game coming on a safety and an 86 yard punt return.  KC’s “lucky” 10-4 mark caught up with them last week as they were outgained by Tennessee and actually lost for once.  This team has now been outgained in 6 of their last 7 games yet they still were able to muster a 5-2 record during that stretch.  No defensive or special teams TD’s last week from KC and they weren’t able to win despite being +2 in the turnover ratio.  We rate these two offenses nearly dead even.  Denver has the superior defense by nearly a full yard per play.  If the Broncs can limit turnovers and prevent KC from scoring defensive/special teams points, we have no doubt they’ll win this game.  The dog has covered 12 of the last 17 in this series and the road team has won 5 of the last 6 outright.  The Chiefs aren’t a team to be laying points with at this point.  They’ve picked up 10 wins despite being outgained on the season and historically this team is a terrible 13-30 ATS as a home chalk.  On top of that, the road team in KC games is 43-13 ATS over the last 56 games.  Denver is in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl last year.  This is an absolute 100% must win for them.  We think they step up and play very well in this one and even if they lose, we look for it to go to the wire.  Taking the points is definitely the way to go in this one.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston -118 on the Money Line over Cincinnati, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET

Last week Houston looked as if they struggled to beat Jacksonville here at home winning by a final score of 21-20.  While they did make it close on the scoreboard, the Texans absolutely dominated that stats outgaining the Jags by 237 yards.  They were also +13 first downs and +13:00 minutes in time of possession.  Houston head coach Bill O’Brien made the QB change from Osweiler, who has been terrible this year, to Tom Savage late in the 2nd quarter.  Savage was under center for 8 offensive possessions and the Texans scored points on 5 of those drives.  Savage will start here and we think that is a good thing for this offense.  We expect the Bengals to be disinterested here.  They faced their biggest rival, the Steelers last week, and led for much of the game before falling 24-20 getting outgained by 160 yards.  Cincy is 2-5 on the road this year and their offense has not topped 23 points in any of those games.  It looks like their top offensive weapon, A.J. Green may play but top defender Burfict will most likely sit.  The Bengals close out the season hosting another AFC North rival Baltimore next week which makes this a very tough spot here for a team that is used to being the playoffs but will not make it this year.  It Xmas eve and you can guess most of the players on the Bengal team would rather be somewhere else with nothing really to play for.  They are 0-7-1 ATS vs a team with a winning record while Houston is 6-1 SU at home this season.  The Texans are tied for first place in the AFC South fighting for their playoff lives.  The Texans should roll here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia +2.5 over NY Giants, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET

The Eagles have obviously cooled of big time after their 3-0 start as they now sit with a record of 5-9.  However this team continues to play hard and many of their losses have gone to the wire.  Since their 3-0 start they have lost @ Dallas in OT, lost @ Detroit by 1, lost @ Washington by 7, lost at home to Washington by 5, and lost @ Baltimore last week by 1.  Their other tight setback during that stretch was @ NY Giants where they lost by 5.  A closer look reveals that the Eagles really outplayed the Giants by a fair amount in that game in New York.  Philly had more first downs, a time of possession edge, and outgained NY 443 to 302 in that game.  The Birds had plenty of opportunities on offense and were shutout on downs 3 times inside the New York 25-yard line.  The Giants are among the worst 10-4 teams in recent memory in our opinion.  This is a team that gets outgained by nearly 30 YPG and their point differential is just +22 which is good for 13th in the league and only 5 points better than Philly who comes in at +17.  The Giants have been at home for 5 of their last 7 games but are just 3-3 away from home.  Their road wins have come against Cleveland (worst team in the NFL), LA Rams (one of the 5 worst teams in the NFL) and 20-19 @ Dallas in the first game of the year when Prescott was making his first ever start.  The line value is definitely with Philly here as NYG was favored by 3 at home in November in this match up and now they are favored by the same on the road.  The Eagles will bring their best here on National TV on Thursday night in a game vs a division rival.  We like Philadelphia to win this game outright. 

Tampa Bay +7 over Dallas - The Cowboys have come back down to earth going 0-3 ATS the last three games after covering 9 straight before that.  The Cowboy offense and QB Dak Prescott hasn’t been nearly as potent as of late as they were earlier in the season.  The last two weeks the Boys have scored just 17 & 7 points not reaching 270 total yards in either game.  They were just 2 of 24 on 3rd down in those two games vs Minnesota & NYG.  QB Dak Prescott looks like he has “hit a wall” throwing for less than 200 yards in each of his last 3 games with just 3 TD’s and 2 interceptions in those games.  Don’t look for the Dallas offense to get healthy this week as they play a red hot Tampa defense that has given up an average of only 11 PPG over their last 5 contest.  They have allowed only 6 TD’s over their last 5 games and held both Drew Brees and Russell Wilson without a TD pass during this winning streak.  While the Cowboys have struggled on third down, that plays right into the strength of the Bucs defense that ranks #2 in the NFL in 3rd down defense.  Tampa is 5-0 both SU & ATS their last five and that includes beating two teams currently in 1st place in their divisions (KC & Seattle).  This is a big game for TB as they are tied with Atlanta for 1st place in the NFC South while the Cowboys who have already clinched a playoff spot and have a nice cushion in the NFC East.  We think Tampa has a great shot to win this one and getting a full TD gives us some leeway. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Green Bay +3 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

This is just a HUGE game for Green Bay.  They currently sit a full 2 games behind Detroit in the NFC North and with the assumption that the Lions will beat Chicago at home this week, the Packers have to win this or they drop 3 games behind with only 3 remaining.  Seattle, on the other hand, has a full 3 game lead in the NFC West and with games vs the Rams and Niners still on the slate, they’ve pretty much already locked up the division.  The last time GB was a home dog with Rodgers starting at QB was way back in 2009.  They are 15-1 SU their last 16 home games in December dating back to 2008.  The Packer offense is clicking and even when they went on their 4 game losing streak, it was mainly because of their defense that allowed 33, 31, 47, and 42 points during that terrible stretch.  The defense has turned the corner allowing just 13 points each of the last two weeks.  They now face a Seattle offense that is averaging only 15 PPG on the road this year.  They have been held to 3, 5, and 6 points in three of those 6 games and the Hawks are just 2-3-1 on the road this season and in their one tie they were outgained by nearly 200 yards @ Arizona.  They could easily be 2-4 away from home.  Safety Earl Thomas was injured last week and won’t play again this year for Seattle.  A desperate Green Bay team gets the win at home.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5 Points - Chicago @ Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Chicago is going to really struggle putting points on the board in this game.  They are near the bottom of the NFL in scoring averaging 17 PPG and many of their key offensive performers are out.  Third string QB Barkley makes his 3rd consecutive start and he is completing barely over 50% of his passes on the year.  His top WR Alshon Jeffrey is out due to a suspension.  On top of that, much of the Chicago starting offensive line is out as well.  Detroit’s overall defensive stats for the season are not impressive but this unit is very good “right now”.  Discard the yearly stats and look at the “what have you done for me lately” scenario.  They have allowed 20 points or less in 6 straight games.  That includes holding one of the top offenses in the NFL, New Orleans, to only 13 points on the road last week.  That’s a New Orleans’ offense that was averaging 34 PPG at home before last weekend.  This Detroit defense shouldn’t have much trouble shutting Chicago down on Sunday.  On offense, many view the Lions as a high flying attack, which they used to be, but they are not that this season.  They are averaging just 22 PPG and rank 21st in the NFL in total offense putting up just 337 YPG.  Lost in their terrible season is the fact the Chicago defense has been very good.  They rank 7th in the NFL in total defense allowing 326 YPG and YPP defense.  These two met earlier this year and battled to a 17-14 final with Chicago winning.  These two have combined to play 7 division games this season (vs NFC North) and all but one of those games have totaled 38 or fewer points.  Take the UNDER here.

#375/376 – Under 44.5 – Carolina @ Seattle, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET – Seattle’s offensive performance last week was an epic fail to say the least.  They scored just 5 points against a middle of the pack Tampa defense.  They were held to under 250 total yards as their offensive line continues its poor showing.  We have the Seattle OL rated as one of the worst in the NFL.  They will have problems again this week against a very solid Carolina defensive line who is 3rd in the NFL with 32 sacks.  Russell Wilson will be running for his life again this week after getting sacked 6 times last Sunday @ TB.  The Panther defense has only allowed one of their last five opponents to top 20 points and that was last week vs a potent Oakland team.  The Raiders scored 35 points, however one of those TD’s was a pick 6 AND Oakland only tallied 356 total yards on 5.2 YPP which are both well below their season averages.  We don’t expect Carolina to do much against a Seattle defense that ranks #1 in scoring allowing just 17 PPG on the season.  This defense has given up 18 points or fewer in 7 of their 11 games this season.  Seattle’s defense tends to ramp it up late in the year as 12 of their last 14 December games have finished UNDER the number.  Low scoring affair here as we side with the UNDER.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver -3.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET

The  Broncos  are the play here minus a short number at home. The Chiefs have won with smoke and mirrors all season long and might be the most overrated team in the league at 7-3. Kansas City has been outgained by 7 of their last nine opponents. Consider this, the Chiefs starting QB, Alex Smith is averaging just 6.88 yards per passing attempt which is BELOW Rams QB Case Keenum! The drastic difference between these two teams is defensively where the Broncos rank as one of the very best in the league and are now healthy on that side of the football. Conversely the Chiefs are in the bottom half of the NFL in most defensive categories.  Denver is off a bye week (15-5 ATS off a bye last 20) and well rested leading up to this contest and have dominated this rivalry for the past several years. The Broncos have won 8 of the last ten meetings overall and covered 5 of the last seven. A recent comparison you can make on this game is this: KC went  to (4-6) Carolina just two weeks ago and was +3.5 points which is the same number as today's game in Denver against a superior Broncos team. The Chiefs will be exposed today for exactly what they are which is an average team. Lay it!

#471/472 – Over 42.5, Philadelphia @ Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

We took Seattle OVER the total last week @ New England and cashed in and we’re coming right back with it again this week.  As we mentioned last week, Seattle’s defense is starting to get a big worn down.  They’ve faced 293 offensive plays now over the last 4 games or an average of 73 per game.  After their game vs Buffalo two weeks ago a number of defensive players noted that they didn’t have much left in the tank.  Then they traveled to the east coast last week and played in another high scoring game vs New England. The last 3 weeks Seattle games have totaled 45, 55, and 56 points.  While the defense has tired during this stretch, the offense is playing very well.  Russell Wilson is now finally healthy and it’s showed with Seattle scoring 31 points each of the last 2 games.  Philly’s defense has been up and down this year.  They played very well at home vs Atlanta last week but coming into that one they allowed 24 or more points in 4 of their previous 5 games.  The Eagle offense has scored at least 20 points in every game this year and it they get to that, this game should definitely go OVER.  This is a low number in this situation.  The weather is calling for possible light rain but very light winds which is key.  This one goes OVER this number.

#453 – Jacksonville +6.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Detroit is 5-4 but not nearly as good as their record in our opinion.  They are getting outgained by an average of 30 YPG and their point differential is -1 despite their winning record.  There are 17 teams in the NFL that have a better point differential that the Lions.  This team is overvalued right now. While they should be favored over Jacksonville, laying 6.5 is too much.  When Detroit wins, it’s close.  Their 5 wins have come by margins of 1, 3, 3, 4, and 6 in OT.  The Lions have been outgained in 5 of their last 6 games and this team simply isn’t good enough on either side of the ball to beat teams handily.  Jacksonville has a worse record, but their numbers are better than Detroit’s.  The Jags average 343 YPG offensively to Detroit’s 337.  On defense there is a bigger gap with Jax allowing only 327 YPG (8th in the NFL) on just 5 YPP (5th in the NFL) while the Lions allow 367 (23rd) on 6 YPP (25th).  Jacksonville has had a number of close losses this year including by 4 to GB, 3 to Houston, 5 to KC, and 2 to Baltimore.  We think they keep this one close and have a shot to win outright.  Getting nearly a full TD is definitely worth grabbing Jacksonville in this game. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati (pick-em) over NY Giants, Monday at 8:30 PM ET

Giants have terrible rush attack.  They’ve won three in a row but they haven’t been impressive in doing so.  Despite winning their last 3 games, NY has been outgained by 210 combined yards in those games.  Last week in a win vs Philly, they were outgained by 140 yards as the Eagles blew a number of opportunities and should have won the game.  The Giants run game is THE WORST in the NFL averaging only 68 YPG on the ground and have rushed for only 38, 36, and 56 yards in their last 3 games.  They are averaging 340 YPG and giving up 371 YPG (-31 YPG differential) which tells us that this team is worse than their 5-3 record.  Cincy is off a bye so they are rested, prepared, and fairly healthy.  The Bengals are 3-4-1 on the year but still in the thick of the AFC North race which is led by Baltimore at 5-4.  They’ve played one of the league’s toughest schedules with their losses coming @ New England, @ Dallas, @ Pittsburgh, and at home vs Denver.  QB Andy Dalton has been solid with a QB rating of 100+ in 4 of his last 5 games throwing 7 TD’s and 1 interception during that span.  One of his key weapons, TE Eifert, is now back from injury and had over 100 yards receiving in their last game.  Cincy has a MUCH more balanced attack with the 7th best rushing attack in the NFL.  The Bengals have played a tougher schedule but still have better numbers than NY putting up 395 YPG offensively while allowing 378 (+17 YPG differential).  Let’s also not forget that this is the same Cincinnati team that won the AFC North last year.  The Bengals are the better team in our opinion and with them coming off a bye week this sets up nicely.      

ASA's 10* SUNDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE YEAR

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 48 - Seattle @ New England, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET

Seattle’s defensive stats are very good, but this team (defense) is running out of gas.  This will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks and over the last 3 games this defense has faced more on field minutes than any other team in the NFL at 244.  You could see the fatigue on Monday night when Seattle faced Buffalo at home and gave up 25 points on over 400 total yards.  The Bills had chances to put more points up on Monday.  They scored 17 points on their first 3 drives but missed a FG, threw an interception inside the Seattle 30, and were stopped on downs inside the Seattle 10.  After last week’s game Seattle LB KJ Wright stated after the Buffalo game that “Our bodies are on empty”, which is not a good sign now traveling across the country on a short week.   Now facing a rested New England team who is off a bye we can expect a lot of points from the Pats.  Since Brady came back into the line up, the Patriots have averaged 34 PPG.  After a lull a few weeks ago, it looks like Seattle QB Wilson and the offense as a whole is playing better.  They’ve put up 51 points in their last two games and they’ll have to score to keep up here.  No conservative game plans in this game and we anticipate a high scoring game.  Take the OVER. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 43 Points - Buffalo @ Seattle, Monday at 8:30 PM ET

The Seahawk defense ranks #1 in the NFL in PPG allowed at just 15.6.  The only two teams that have topped 20 points against this stop unit are New Orleans & Atlanta who rank #1 and #2 in the NFL in total offense.  In their other 5 games, the Seattle defense is giving up just 12 PPG.  The last 2 games combined (vs Arizona & New Orleans) they’ve allowed just 2 TD’s and one came on a short field (37 yard drive) after a turnover.  Buffalo’s offense has averaged 26 PPG yet they are doing so on just 333 YPG which ranks them 25th in the NFL in total offense.  Thus, their scoring numbers are a bit skewed.  Because they don’t have a great passing QB, the Bills rely heavily on the run to set up the pass.  Their run play percentage ranks 3rd in the NFL.  Problem is, Seattle gives up just 87 YPG rushing on just 3.4 YPC.  The Buffalo offense will struggle tonight.  Seattle’s offense has problems of its own.  Russell Wilson is banged up and you can tell he is not 100%.  They’ve scored just ONE offensive TD in the last two games and that includes a game vs a terrible New Orleans defense that gave up almost 500 yards to a bad SF offense yesterday.  These two offenses are in the bottom 3rd of the league in 3rd down conversion percentage which stops drives and leads to punts.  That is very conducive to a low scoring game.  We like the UNDER on Monday Night.

ASA's 10* AFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR

ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver +1 over Oakland, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET

Even though they are now at home, the travel schedule for the Raiders has to catch up with them and we think this is the spot.  They’ve already played FIVE long travel/east coast games including games @ Jacksonville & @ Tampa the last 2 weeks.  They stayed in Florida between those two games so they were gone for a full week and a half or so.  Those long trips so far this season should result in weary legs in their first game back.  Oakland is 5-0 on the road this year, however at home they are just 1-2 and their one win was by 3 points.  We still feel their 6-2 record is a bit of a “farce” as they’ve outgained only ONE opponent all season long.  Despite winning 6 of their 8 games, the Raiders point differential is just +12 which actually rates LAST in the AFC West and 14th overall in the NFL.  Denver is also 6-2 but they’ve outgained every opponent with the exception of Atlanta & San Diego.  The Broncos point differential is +58 on the season which is 2nd best in the AFC behind New England.  We have a HUGE defensive edge here with Denver in this game which is huge especially when getting points.  The Broncos is 3rd in the NFL in total defense allowing a full 110 fewer YPG than Oakland who ranks 31st in that category.  Denver has dominated this series winning 8 of the last 9 with the Raiders only win coming by 3 points.  We like Denver to win this game outright. 

ASA's 10* NFC TOTAL SMASH GAME OF THE WEEK

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 52.5 Points - New Orleans @ San Francisco, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

These two defenses are terrible.  They rank last (SF) and 2nd to last (N.O.) in scoring defense allowing 30.7 & 31.3 PPG respectively.  The Saints offense hasn’t had huge outputs the last two weeks (24 & 20 points) but that’s because they played two of the top defenses in the NFL (KC & Seattle).  The Chiefs are 8th in the league in scoring defense and Seattle is 2nd.  Before last week, the Saints had topped 30 points in 3 of their last 4 games and we’d have to expect them to do the same here vs a SF defense that has given up 33 or more in 5 of their last 6.  The Niners offense has struggled but with 2 weeks off we think Chip Kelly will have some new wrinkles to get them moving against a Saint defense that has allowed 27 or more in 5 of their last 6 games.  Another key factor here will be pace of play.  We expect a large number of offensive plays in this one as SF is #1 in pace this year running a play every 23.95 seconds and New Orleans is 4th in pace averaging a play every 26.05 seconds.  This one has all the makings of a high scoring game and we’ll take the OVER.

ASA's NFC EAST GAME OF THE WEEK

ASA PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia +2.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We’re siding with the better team here getting points.  This line insinuates that these two teams would be dead even (or very close to that) on a neutral field.  We have Philly rated as the better team so the line value is with the Eagles in our opinion.  The Eagles are just 4-3 but have the top point differential in the entire NFC and 2nd best in the NFL at +62.  The Giants are also 4-3 but they are -8 in point differential.  Last week, the Eagles led @ Dallas, whom many consider to be the top team in the NFC, for nearly the entire 2nd half including holding a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter.  Dallas scored a TD late to push the game into OT where the Cowboys won 29-23.  Expect Philly to bounce back with a big effort here after that tough loss.  The Giants are 1-2 ATS this year as a home favorite and 2-1 SU with their wins coming by 3 over New Orleans and by 4 over Baltimore.  New York is historically one of the worst home teams in the NFL with a 24-31-1 ATS record at home since October of 2009.  This is simply a bad match up for the Giants.  They can’t run the ball at all (dead last in the NFL at 70 YPG) and they are facing a Philly pass defense that ranks as the most efficient in the NFL (Football Outsiders).  We look for a New York offense, that has already been held to 17 points or less four times this year, to struggle with this Eagle defense.  Philadelphia has won 5 of the last 6 in this series and we’ll call for them to win again.

PLAY ON: ATLANTA FALCONS (minus) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tonight we play on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the host Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Earlier this season the Falcons hosted the Bucs and lost 31-24 as a -2.5 point favorite. That was the first game of the season and considering how these two teams have played since then the oddsmakers have only adjusted the Falcons as 1.5 points better? Now we get the Falcons playing with same season revenge laying a short number against an inferior team. Atlanta has the #1 ranked offense in the NFL in terms of Total yards and they've accomplished that after facing Denver, Seattle and Green Bay who rank in the top 7 in the NFL in Total defense. Now the Dirty Birds face a Bucs defense that just gave up over 600 yards of offense to the Raiders last Sunday. Tampa Bay allows 5.9 yards per play which is 25th in the league and an average of 379 yards per game which is 26th worst. What makes those numbers even worse is the fact the Bucs have faced 3 of the six worst offenses in the league! Not to mention the Bucs defense will be tired here following a short week coming off a game where they were on the field for 83 plays (league average 64.3). Tampa doesn't have an offense capable of trading points with the Falcons either as they are in the bottom half of the league in Total O, 27th in yards per play and average 21.7PPG which is 19th in the NFL. Atlanta does not have a great history as a chalk but they are coming off 4 close games against good teams: Denver, Seattle, San Diego and Green Bay after beating three lesser teams by 7, 13 and 15 points. Tampa is 0-5 ATS their last five at home and have failed to cover the spread in those games by an average of 10PPG. Lay the points on the road with Atlanta. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 40 Points - Minnesota @ Chicago, Monday at 8:30 PM ET

Two division opponents who know each other very well lends to the UNDER here.  Here we have two very solid defenses and two inept offenses for the most part.  Minnesota ranks #1 in the NFL in total defense and YPP defense.  Surprisingly to most, Chicago’s defense has been solid this year ranking 13th in total defense and 10th in YPP defense.  Offensively, these teams are among the worst in the NFL.  Chicago ranks dead last in scoring putting up just 15.9 PPG.  They have topped 17 points only once all season and that was against a bad Indy defense.  Even in that game they only reached 23.  The Minnesota offense ranks only ahead of San Francisco averaging less than 300 YPG of total offense.  The Vikings average 21.5 PPG which is 20th in the NFL, however if their defense has a lot to do with that.  In fact, if you subtract their 4 defensive/special teams TD’s this year they are averaging only 17.5 PPG.  Because neither of these teams like the up tempo, fast paced game, they average very few offensive plays per game.  Chicago averages only 59 plays per game (30th in the NFL) and Minnesota just 64 (18th in the NFL).  A slower paced game with low numbers of offensive plays obviously normally leads to lower scoring games.   These two have gone UNDER the number in 7 of their last 9 meetings and we see another low scoring affair tonight.  Take the UNDER.

ASA's 10* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH

ASA PLAY ON 10* Atlanta -3 over Green Bay, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

With Green Bay’s injuries in the defensive backfield, this become a very bad match up for them.  The Packers will be down their 3 top corners on Sunday which will make it awfully tough to slow down Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and company.  The two CB’s who will be starting for the Packers on Sunday will be two guys who normally wouldn’t even see the field if the injuries hadn’t occurred.  Atlanta’s offense has been fantastic this year.  They lead the NFL in scoring (32.7 PPG), total offense (433 YPG), and yards per play offense (6.8).  They are coming off consecutive losses so the Falcons will be playing with urgency here at home.  They’ve played the 3rd toughest schedule in the NFL to date already playing 4 road games against the likes of Seattle, Denver, and Oakland.  We’re not sure the Green Bay offense can keep up in this one.  They rank near the bottom of the NFL (21st in total offense) and they have very little running game with Lacy & Starks both injured.  WR Ty Montgomery who has been filling in at RB at times was sick for much of the week as well.  He should play but practiced little this week.  We have a team in Atlanta that averages over 30 PPG against a tough schedule vs Green Bay, a team that has topped 30 only once all season and they have faced the 31st toughest schedule so far this year.  The Packers have been outgained in 4 of their 6 games and this simply isn’t the Green Bay team of old.  Atlanta is the better team and at home here.  We’ll lay the low number.

ASA's 10* AFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH

ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -6 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

As we stated last week we thought Buffalo was a bit over rated and their recent solid play (heading into last week) was a product of their opponents.  They had beaten this New England team who had a rookie QB starting, then topped the LA Rams who have very little offense, and then beat San Fran who is obviously just a bad team in general.  Last week we jumped on Miami +2.5 at home over Buffalo and were rewarded with a nice win.  What looked like a close game, really shouldn’t have been.  The Fins dominated outgained Buffalo by nearly 200 yards a full 2 YPP.  Now they have to face an angry New England team that has their 16-0 loss to Buffalo just a few weeks ago at the forefront.  You can bet Brady & Company, even though he didn’t play in the first game, have been waiting patiently for this one.  Belichick is a master in revenge games especially in division play where he is a near perfect 18-3 ATS his last 21 in that situation.  Despite their earlier loss this season, the Pats have absolutely dominated Buffalo with a 30-3 SU record the last 33 meetings.  Since Brady has returned, New England is 3-0 SU & ATS winning all 3 by double digits.  Since he’s come back Brady has been lights out completing 75% of his passes for over 1,000 yards and 8 TD’s (no interceptions).  The Bills offense was being carried by RB LeSean McCoy during their winning streak and with him being limited to just 8 carries last week, they gained only 267 total yards on just 4.7 YPP.  McCoy is doubtful this week and even if he plays, he’ll be ineffective with a bad hamstring.  With this line sitting under a TD, we really like New England in this spot.

We will play on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday evening. Jacksonville was expected to be an explosive offensive team this year considering the wealth of talent on that side of the football they have but it just hasn't been the case. The Jags are 29th in the league in offensive efficiency, 24th in scoring at 19.5PPG (down from 23.5 last year) and average just 324 total yards of 'O' per game which is 27th in the NFL and a full 24 less yards than a season ago. While the Jags have gotten worse offensively, the Titans have gotten better. The Titans are 14th in the league in yards per game, 3rd in rushing yards per game and average more points than they did a year ago.  Defensively these two team are very similar with Jacksonville ranking 9th overall in Total 'D' and the Titans ranking 10th in that same category. The biggest advantage for the Titans we feel is the running game tonight. When you can control the football and convert on 3rd downs you're going to have a much better shot at winning the game. The Titans have DeMarco Murray who is 3rd in the league in total rushing yards and leads a Tennessee offense that runs for 143YPG at a 4.9 yard per carry average. Conversely the Jags are one of the worst rushing teams in the league averaging just 76.6YPG at 3.7 yards per attempt. Tennessee converts 46.24% of their 3rd down attempts which is 4th best in the NFL. Jacksonville is last in the league in converting 3rd downs at just 27.63%. The short week and travel will certainly hurt a Jags team that is just 5-27 SU their last 32 on the road. The home team has won 4 in a row in this series and backing the home team with the short number is the way to go here. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 40.5 Points - Houston @ Denver

Two bottom eight offenses vs to top eight defenses lead us the under tonight.  The Texans offense is rank dead last in the NFL in efficiency according to Football Outsiders.  Denver isn’t much better ranked 23rd in the same category.  Houston averages just 18 PPG which ranks them right near the bottom of the league.  Last week they scored 26 in their overtime win vs Indy.  Let’s not forget that the Colt defense is one of the worst in the NFL AND that Houston had just 9 points with under 3:00 minutes remaining in the game.  They scored 2 TD’s late to send the game to OT and picked up the 26-23 win.  A very deceiving final to say the least.  They struggled to score against a bad Indy defense so how will they do tonight on the road against a top 5 defense in Denver?  Probably not good.  We don’t expect the Denver offense to do any better.  They have scored just 16 & 13 points the last two weeks vs lower tier defenses (Atlanta & San Diego).  However, the Bronco defense held those two high scoring teams to just 21 and 23 points respectively.  With two below average QB’s at the helm tonight (Osweiler & Siemian), we don’t expect many explosive plays in the passing game.  UNDER is the play tonight.

AFC vs NFC GAME OF THE MONTH

ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego +6.5 over Atlanta, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

The Falcons are obviously much improved this year but this is an absolute terrible situation for them.  If there was ever a game they wouldn’t show up or take at least a little lightly this would be it.  The Falcons have played a ridiculously tough schedule over the last 3 weeks.  They beat Carolina (division rival) at home, then traveled to Denver to get a win, and finally they went back to the west coast last week and lost a tight one @ Seattle.  On top of that, they host Green Bay next weekend.  In hindsight, while impressive, the Falcons 3 game stretch isn’t quite what we thought.  Their win over Carolina looked great but the Panthers now only have one win on the season.  They beat Denver which was solid, but Denver has since lost to this San Diego team as well.  The Chargers are much better than their 2-4 record.   They’ve led in the 4th quarter of every game this year and their loss margins have been by 6 in OT, 4, 3, and 1 point.  Add to that the fact that the Bolts beat Denver last Thursday so they’ve had a full 10 days to rest and get ready for this road game.  On the other hand, Atlanta is now home but they’ve been on the road 4 of the previous 5 weeks so they have to be a bit leg weary.  This game is a late 4:05 PM ET start which also benefits San Diego going west to east.  The Chargers are 2-1 ATS as a road underdog this year and 20-9 ATS their last 29 in that situation.  We’ll call for a tight game and wouldn’t at all be surprised if the Chargers win outright here.

AFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH

ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami +3 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Fins are home for the 3rd straight week while Buffalo is playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks.  Miami finally got healthy on their offensive line last week and it showed with a 30-15 win over Pittsburgh.  Beating one of the AFC favorites that handily was impressive and while QB Roethlisberger was injured, it was late in the game when Miami was in full control.  The Dolphins put together an impressive offensive game with 474 total yards while holding the potent Pitt offense to just 297 yards.  Most wouldn’t know it but Miami’s offense is putting up 6 YPP which is the 5th best mark in the NFL.  Buffalo is 4-2 on the season but they’ve been outgained in 4 of those 6 games.  They’ve been getting it done on the ground with LeSean McCoy rolling up 290 yards rushing and 3 TD’s the last 2 games.  Problem is, McCoy is now injured with a bad hammy and may not play here.  Even if he does, he’s not 100% and his explosiveness will be limited.  That takes the biggest threat away from the Bills offense.  Buffalo has won 4 straight but we are not yet overly impressed.  They beat Arizona at home but were outgained and the Cards had a whopping 5 turnovers.  Then they beat New England with the Pats playing a rookie QB.  Then it was the “offenseless” Rams a game Buffalo was again outgained but benefitted from a pick 6.  Last week at home vs San Fran who lost RB Hyde which was their top threat for an already poor offense.  Now the Bills have a huge game with New England on deck and we think they are ripe for the picking.  Miami wins this one.

PLAY ON: NY JETS (+) over Arizona Cardinals - Monday, 8:25PM ET - The value lies with the Jets on Monday night when they travel to Phoenix to take on the Cardinals and we'll grab the points. New York is off three straight losses and are in desperation mode at 1-4 SU on the year while the Cards got  a little reprieve after a win over the 49ers last week. The Jets have faced the tougher schedule to date after facing: Steelers, Seahawks, Bills, Chiefs and Bengals who have a combined 17-11 record. Arizona has faced: 49ers, Rams, Bills, Bucs and Pats (without Brady @ home and loss) who are 15-14 on the year. The Cards will go back to starting QB Carson Palmer tonight but is that necessarily a good thing? Palmer has struggled throwing the football this year and currently sits 26th in the NFL among starting quarterbacks in QBR rating at 51.2. Palmer has thrown just 6 TD's to 5 INT' on the year. Yes, the Jets secondary has been torched this season but they've also faced 2 QB's that are top 7 in total passing yards (Dalton and Roethlisberger) and Russell Wilson who has a 97.2 QBR and is 12th in completion percentage. What the Jets do REALLY well defensively is stop the run. Arizona's RB David Johnson (5th in the league in rushing) will have a hard time finding room to run against the Jet's defensive front. Turnovers have killed the Jets this season but Arizona isn't much better at taking care of the football. The Jets average 2.6 giveaways per game but the Cards average 2.0. The Cardinals are just 4-9 ATS their last 13 at home when laying a TD or more.  Grab the points with the Jets.

ASA's SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH

ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston -2.5 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET

This line on this game is a steal with a way better Texans team at home against the Indianapolis Colts. The Texans are off a loss last Sunday (4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss) while the Colts are off a come from behind win. Indy trailed the Bears late last week before pulling out a win and were outgained by 126 total yards in that game. The Colts defense is one of the worst in the NFL ranking 30th in the league in yards allowed per game at 410.6YPG. Houston on the other hand ranks 6th in total D allowing 110 less yards per game than the Colts do. Indianapolis allows 6.5 yards per play overall defensively which is 31st in the league while the Texans allow just 4.9YPPL which is 7th best in the NFL. The Titans have outgained 4 of their five opponents this season and their two losses have come to the Vikings and Patriots who are a combined 9-1. Houston’s foes this year have a combined record of 15-10 while the Colts have wins over the Chargers and Bears and their opponents on the season have a 10-17 overall record. Even without JJ Watt the Texans defense will get to Luck as the Colts O-line is again one of the worst in the NFL (allowing 4 sacks per game – last in the league). After facing a Vikings defense that is one of the best in the league the Texans find plenty of opportunities here. 

Tonight we play UNDER in the Broncos @ Chargers game. The Chargers are 8th in total offense this year averaging 373YPG and second in scoring at 30.4PPG. So why wouldn't we like 'over' in this contest with a potent offense like the Chargers? It's because San Diego's offensive numbers are really misleading as they've played the 3 worst defenses in the league in terms of yards allowed per game as Oakland, New Orleans and Indy all give up over 410YPG. Tonight the Chargers face a Denver 'D' that allows just 301YPG and 17.4PPG and it's going to be tough moving the ball here. The Broncos just faced a Falcons offense that is the best in the NFL and held them to 23 points so they should contain a Chargers 'O' here. Denver learned last week they must protect starting QB Trevor Siemian as rookie Paxton Lynch just isn't ready for the NFL yet. That means a heavy dose of the running game and a ball control offense in this game. The Broncos are 21st in the league in plays per game at 62.8 while the Chargers are 26th at 61.6. Less plays means less scoring opportunities and a lower scoring game. The UNDER has cashed in 5 of the last seven meetings overall in this series and 5 of the last six on this field. Our math model projects 42 or less points tonight. 

Tonight we play OVER in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers game. Can you name all the teams in the NFL that average more plays per game than these two teams? ZERO! TBay averages 71 plays per game while the Panthers average 70.5. More plays and faster paced offense clearly leads to more scoring opportunities. Both teams have several key injuries to their running backs but that won't change their offensive philosophies as they both prefer to throw the football. Tampa Bay is 1st in the NFL in passing attempts per game at 44.2 while the Panthers are 7th at 39.2. Obviously Panthers starting QB Cam Newton is out for this game but we like the value it gives us on the number. Backup QB Derek Anderson played offensive series against Atlanta and went 17 of 23 for 172 yards with 2 TD's and 2 INT's. Breaking down those series he led the Panthers on drives of 9 plays for 94 yards and a TD. 11 plays 75 yards and a TD. Threw a pick 6 (which helps over bettors) and threw another INT on his last series. With Anderson running the offense the Panthers averaged 7.4 yards per play which would be better than everyone in the NFL. The Bucs offense is averaging below 20PPG but they've faced three defenses that rank in the top half of the league in points allowed per game defensively. After allowing just 19.5PPG last season the Panthers defense is giving up a whopping 29.5PPG this year which is 5th worst in the NFL. Speaking of defense...or lack of defense, the Bucs are giving up 32PPG which is 2nd to last in the league, allow 5.5 yards per play (19th) and 1 point for every 11.1 yards gained by an opponent which is 31st in the NFL. Tampa Bay QB Winston has 23 INT's since the start of last season which is the 3rd most in that time (Bortles 24, Fitzpatrick 25) which could lead to a few short scoring opportunities for the Panthers. Last year in two meetings these same two teams combined for 48 and 60 total points and Bucs on 5-2 'over' streak while Panthers 'over' in 4 of last five at home. Bet here is OVER!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 48.5 - NY Giants @ Green Bay, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET

People continue to view Green Bay as a high scoring juggernaut on offense.  The fact is, this is not nearly the same offense they put on the field 2 years ago when the put up 30 PPG.  Last year they struggled mightily on offense scoring just 23 PPG a full TD down from the year before.  This year while they are scoring 25 PPG, their offense is again struggling.  They are averaging only 293 YPG which is 29th in the NFL ahead of only Minnesota, San Fran, and the LA Rams.  On a yards per play basis, the Pack are putting up only 5.1 YPP which is 25th in the league.  Even when the tallied 34 points in their most recent game vs Detroit, the Packers totaled only 325 yards.  On the other side, the Giants offense is scoring just 18 PPG on the year (27th in the NFL) and has been held to 20 points or less in 3 of their 4 games.  The only time they topped 20 points was a 27 point output against Washington who ranks 29th in the NFL in total defense.  Three of their four games have come against poor defenses (New Orleans & Dallas along with Washington) and their scoring numbers are still poor.  We think they’ll struggle against a decent Green Bay defense coming off a bye week.  This is the highest total thus far on the season for Green Bay and the second highest for New York, only behind their game vs New Orleans (54 points) which ended 16-13.  We like UNDER in this one. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Tennessee +3.5 over Miami, Sunday 1:00 PM ET

Both of these teams are just 1-3 but Tennessee is showing signs of being a much improved team while the Dolphins could easily be 0-4.  The Titans have been outgained by 13 total yards on the season.  Their running game is among the best in the NFL averaging 127 YPG (4th in the NFL) on 4.7 YPC (3rd in the NFL).  Their offensive line is massive improved and ranks as one of the top 10 O-Lines in the NFL (Football Outsiders).  That’s bad news for a Miami defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in rush defense allowing 130 YPG on the ground (29th in the NFL).  The Titans have shown signs of life even in their losses.  They had an undefeated Minnesota team down 10-0 at half and held the Vikings without an offensive TD but somehow lost.  They outgained Oakland in a 17-10 loss.  Last week they were tied with @ Houston 20-20 in the 2nd half in a close loss.  The Dolphins, on the other hand, have been outgained by every team they’ve faced this season including their lone win in OT at home against a bad Cleveland team.  Miami has been outgained by 188 yards on the season and this team should probably actually be winless.  The Fins have been horrendous as a home favorite going just 13-43 ATS their last 56 in that situation.  Also tough to lay points with a Miami team that has topped 20 points only 3 times in their last 14 games.  We think Tennessee has a great shot to win this one outright.  Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points - Philadelphia @ Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Philly defense has allowed a TOTAL of 27 points this season in 10 games!  That includes holding an extremely potent Pittsburgh offense to just 3 points and 251 total yards in their most recent game.  The Eagle defense has allowed just 2 offensive TD’s so far this season.  They face a struggling Detroit offense that has scored a total of 4 offensive TD’s in their last 3 games.  The Lions are “averaging” 23.8 PPG mostly due to the fact they put up 39 in their opening game against a bad Indy defense that ranks 30th allowing 31 PPG.  Detroit’s last 3 games have come against defenses ranked 19th, 17th, and 14th yet they still only put up 4 offensive TD’s in those games.  Now they face the #1 defense in the NFL.  Philly’s offense has looked very good but they still have a rookie QB and we look for them to be conservative on the road.  The Eagles are the slowest paced offense in the NFL averaging a snap every 31.5 seconds.  New head coach Doug Peterson tries to “shorten” the game, not make mistakes, and let his defense win it.  The Detroit defense gave up some points to Green Bay & Indy, however in their other two games they held Tennessee to 16 and Chicago to 17.  This total is set at 46 which is basically the same total the oddsmakers set when Philly hosted Pitt in their most recent game.  The Steelers offense is far superior to the Lions and we think this is set too high.  Take the UNDER here.

PLAY ON: ARIZONA CARDINALS: This might be your last shot  to get great value with the Cardinals who were picked by many experts (not ASA) to represent the NFC this year in the Super Bowl. It has obviously been a disappointing start to the season for the Cardinals (1-3) after going 13-3 in the regular season a year ago in winning the NFC West. So this week we get them as a small favorite on the road with the line being lower than normal because they will be without starting QB Carson Palmer. But is that necessarily a bad thing? After throwing 35 TD to just 11INT's a year ago, Palmer has not looked good so far this year with just 6 TD's to 5 INT's while completing just 58.5% of his passing attempts. Granted, QB Drew Stanton looked  awful in his short relief appearance last week against the Rams but now he's gotten extra reps all week with an opportunity to prepare for the starting job. But we don't expect Stanton to be put  in a position to carry the Cardinals this week, he'll just have to manage the game and hand the ball off to RB David Johnson. Johnson leads the NFL in all-purpose yards and is 7th in rushing yards (300yds) at 4.7 yards per carry. That is significant here as the Niners are 22nd worst in the NFL in yards per rush attempt allowing 4.3 yards per carry and LAST in the NFL in total rushing yards allowed per game at 140+. Another key factor in this matchup is the loss of LB NaVorro Bowman for the 49ers who has 236 tackles the past two seasons. Arizona is 7th in the NFL in total offense compared to San Fran's 30th overall rankings, are better defensively (8th  total D versus SF #26th) and backed into a corner this early in the season. Let's not forget this Cards team was 7-1 SU last year on the road and are 12-2 ATS their last fourteen roadies against teams with a losing record at home. Arizona also has some impressive backing when coming off a spread loss and it all adds up to a win here even without their starting QB. Lay it!

ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +4.5 over Minnesota, Monday at 8:30 PM ET

The Vikes sit at 3-0 on the season despite scoring only 3 offensive TD’s the entire season.  While we understand their defense is very good, this team needs to start putting some offensive numbers up or they will start losing some games.  We think their first loss comes tonight.  The Giants have a big edge offensively.  They are averaging 6.5 yards per play while the Vikes are averaging just 4.8 yards per play.  New York is off a home loss vs Washington and this team has the best road spread record in the NFL since the start of the 2007 season at 44-30-2 ATS.  The Giants will have some extra motivation tonight as well after getting whipped by Minny last year 49-17.  The game wasn’t nearly as lopsided as the score would indicate.  The Vikings outgained the Giants by just 5 yards in the game despite running 11 more offensive plays.  Eli Manning threw 3 interceptions while Minny did not have a turnover.  Due to the turnovers Minnesota scored on a pick 6 and had TD drives of 4 yards and 18 yards.  The game snowballed out of control and NY just couldn’t get back into it.  Let’s face it, Minnesota is 3-0 but they’ve been outgained by an average of 30 YPG this season.  They average only 265 YPG on offense (last in the NFL) and with Adrian Peterson out along with starting LT Kalil, we don’t look for them to light up a Giant defense that ranks 11th in the NFL in total defense.  The Giants are 2-1 but they have a +57 YPG differential on the season.  They are far superior offensively, as we’ve stated, and while Minny’s defense is better, it’s not by a wide margin.  We’ll call for the Giants to win a close game tonight.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -4 over KC, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

The Steelers will be in a foul mood here after getting embarrassed at Philly last week.  The potent Pitt offense was only able to put up 3 points in that game.  Expect a much better effort this week at home on Sunday Night.  We are not sold on KC.  They’re games have gone as follows…A come from WAY behind (down 24-3) overtime win at home against a middle of the pack San Diego team, a 7-point loss @ Houston, and a home win over the Jets last week helped by New York’s EIGHT, yes EIGHT turnovers.  The struggling KC offense has scored only 22 points the last 2 weeks (subtracting defensive TD).  They’ve scored a total of ONE offensive TD the last 2 games.  We think it will be for them to keep up with the Steelers offense that will come out angry this week.  Not only are the Steelers coming off a terrible effort last week, they also remember last year’s trip to KC where they lost 23-13 in QB Landry Jones first start of his career (Big Ben was injured).  Pitt RB Le’veon Bell ran for 117 yards in that game and he is back from suspension this week.  Steelers are 13-6 ATS at home when coming off an outright loss.  We expect the Steeler to win this game at home and when they win at home, they usually control the game.  Of Pittsburgh’s last 17 home wins, 15 have come by at least a TD.  The Pitt offense rolls this week and the Chiefs can’t keep up.  Lay it with the Steelers.

ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +1.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This is a terrible match up for Seattle in our opinion.  First of all, you have an angry Jets team that was smoked last Sunday @ KC.  The Chiefs won 24-3 but only scored 10 points on offense and were basically given the game by Jet QB Fitzpatrick who threw 6 interceptions.  NY had a ridiculous 8 turnovers in the game.  Expect a big bounce back at home this week.  Seattle won a home game against a tired SF team that had played on the east coast a week earlier.  QB Russell Wilson came into the game banged up and then injured his ankle.  Even if he plays here he will not be at 100%.  That’s a key in this game as we expect the Jets defensive line to control the line of scrimmage.  Seattle’s offensive line is bad.  They have 4 new starters from last year and they are already banged up on the line.  With Wilson’s mobility compromised, this could be a long day for the Seattle offense.  Similar to when they traveled to LA to face the Rams a few weeks ago, who also have a solid defensive line, and lost 9-3.  If Wilson doesn’t play, which he may not, the Seahawks will go with rookie Trevon Boykin.  Long travel to the east coast and an early start time don’t favor the Hawks here.  This is a huge game for the Jets who are 1-2 on the season.  Seattle has played the Dolphins, Rams, and Niners so far which is lower level NFL competition.  They lost one of those games and struggled to get by Miami at home.  New York has played Cincy, Buffalo, and KC, two of which were playoff teams last year.  Anytime we get a potential mismatch in the trenches with an underdog, we have to take a long look.  Take the Jets.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 47, Cleveland @ Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We look for a shootout here.  After a terrible offensive showing in week 1 vs Philly, the Browns offense has played well the last 2 weeks.  In hindsight, we understand the 10 spot vs the Eagle defense as they have been dominant allowing only 17 points in 2 games since.  Cleveland actually outgained Baltimore & Miami each of the last 2 weeks and scored 44 points combined putting up 817 yards on the process.  We really like the way the Washington offense is playing as well.  They’ve scored 23 & 29 points the last 2 weeks and they’ve actually had chances to put up quite a bit more.  They’ve left quite a few points on the field.  To give you an idea, the Skins have punted only 4 times in the last 2 games.  So we have two offenses that are playing well vs two bad defenses.  Both stop units are allowing over 400 YPG and they sit at or over 6 YPP allowed.  Cleveland has allowed 29, 25, and 30 points.  Washington has allowed 38, 27, and 27 points.  This number is set too low.  Take the OVER.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 46 Points - Miami @ Cincinnati, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET

Cincy has struggled to put points on the board this year but they have put up solid yardage.  They have scored 16, 17, and 23 points, however against defenses not named Denver, the Bengals have averaged almost 400 YPG (397 to be exact).  They are obviously moving the ball averaging over 6 YPP so the points will come in due time.  That starts tonight vs a Miami defense that has looked shaky the last 2 weeks.  The Fins have allowed 31 & 24 points each of the last 2 weeks vs teams with big inexperience at the QB position.  Last week Cleveland rookie QB Cody Kessler put up 24 points and 244 yards passing in his first ever start.  A week earlier, the Pats Jimmy Garoppolo put up 31 points and 233 yards passing in his 2nd start ever.  Both teams eclipsed 400 yards of total offense on Miami’s defense.  We look for Cincy to do the same.  Offensively, Miami has actually looked very good since their tough outing to start the season @ Seattle.  In the last 2 games they’ve topped 400 yards in each and scored 24 & 30 points.  The Bengal defense has been a disappointment this year allowed 22 or more points in all 3 games.  Both offenses are ranked in the top 5 in the NFL in pace averaging one snap every 25 seconds.  This line has risen from 44 to 46.5 and we agree with the move.  It hasn’t moved enough in our opinion and we’ll grab the OVER. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville +1 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Jags are now 0-2 and backed into a must win corner.  We felt they would be improved this year and their stats in the first two games were actually solid.  They outgained Green Bay and had a chance to win late but lost a tight one.  After that emotional setback, Jacksonville had to travel cross country to San Diego last Sunday.  They laid an egg getting whipped 38-14.  However they did outgain San Diego with some offensive movement late in the game but 3 turnovers and a flat as a pancake showing did them in.  We expect them to play much better this week and they get one of their top offensive weapons back at RB Ivory is expected to make his season debut.  Baltimore is 2-0 and this game isn’t nearly as important to them.  Let’s face it.  The Ravens are undefeated but have played two of the worst teams in the NFL and have not looked dominant in either game.  They topped Buffalo 13-7 at home and then had to come from behind to win @ Cleveland last week.  The Browns just out to a 20-2 lead in the first quarter and then proceeded to lay an egg and score zippo the rest of the way and Baltimore won 25-20.  The Ravens are on the road for the 2nd straight week and since 2012 this team has just a 9-16 record away from home.  Jags are the play here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -7 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We swallowed the point last week with the Panthers over the 49ers and it turned out pretty well for us with Carolina winning 46-27 as a 13-point chalk. The Panthers dominated that game with +10 first downs, 430 yards of total O and a +12 minute time of possession edge. Now the Panthers should be focused on a Minnesota team that is 2-0 and the defending NFC North Champs. But we're not sold on the Vikings and have found some holes or chinks in their armor. They stand 2-0 with wins over the Tennessee Titans who had just 3 wins last year and a Green Bay team that is just 6-8 SU their last 14 games dating back to last season. In two games this year the Vikings have less than 100 total yards of rushing and are now without RB Adrian Peterson for the year. Minnesota was outgained in the opener by the Titans and barely outgained the Packers last week in their grand opening of their new stadium. Carolina has one of the best offenses in the NFL and have way too many great statistical rankings to list here (OK, we'll give a few: #2 in 3rd down conversions, 1st scoring 33PPG, 5th points per play, 3rd yards per game at 431). While the Vikings are one dimensional offensively right now and over-rated defensively based on the fact they've benefitted from 6 turnovers in the first two games of the season. In terms of 'O' the Vikes are 28th worst in yards per game at 292, 26th in yards per play, last in rushing and 17th in scoring offense at 21PPG. Carolina has won 14 straight home games and are 11-5 their last 16 as a home chalk. Lay the points with the Panthers.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 47, Detroit @ Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Being located in Wisconsin we obviously pay extra attention to the Packers and after two horrible offensive showings we expect a breakout game for Rodgers and company on Sunday against a banged up Lions defense.  On the other side of the ball we expect the Lions to put up points too in what sets up to be a high scoring shootout. Green Bay's pass defense has been suspect at best and will be tested here by the Lions and QB Stafford who is completing 67% of his pass attempts (8th best in the NFL) for 285 yards per game (7th best). The Packers have allowed 277 yards passing per game which is 20th worst in the league.  In contrast to Stafford, Aaron Rodgers is completing just 57% of his pass attempts which is 29th worst in the NFL for 189.5 yards per game (31st) which is clearly and aberration. The Lions are 5th overall in the NFL at 6.3 yards per play while the Packers are 30th at 4.5YPPL, again the Packers number is not the norm. Detroit is without their three starting linebackers which will provide opportunities for short underneath routes to the tightends and running backs out of the backfield. Both of these teams played in low scoring games last week after the Packers/Jags combined for 50 points in week #1 while the Lions/Colts combined for 74 points. These two NFC North rivals will revert back to how they played in week #1 in what should be a shootout. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago -3 over Philadelphia, Monday at 8:30 PM ET

We’ll gladly fade the rookie QB Carson Wentz making the first road start of his career AND on Monday Night!  Wentz looked solid last week in the friendly confines of Lincoln Financial Field.  And let’s not forget they were facing the hapless Cleveland Browns who some experts predict will be the worst NFL team in years.  We were actually on Cleveland last week and if they can’t show up and play well (they didn’t) against an average team with a rookie QB, we agree the Browns are now officially in big trouble.  Back to this game…Chicago battled Houston, a playoff team from last year, fairly well last week on the road.  The Bears led entering the 4th quarter before falling 23-14.  That loss makes this a huge home game for them especially with another road game on deck @ Dallas next week.  Despite the loss last week, head coach John Fox has proven he can turn teams around quickly and we expect Chicago to be much improved.  Fox took over Carolina in 2002 and went 7-9 his first year followed up by 11-5 in year 2.  He then took over Denver in 2011 and went just 8-8 but followed that up with a 13-3 mark in his second season.  It’s now his 2nd season in Chicago.  Versus a rookie coach and rookie QB we look for Fox and the Bears to pick up a must win at home on Monday night.  Lay it.  

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 43, Green Bay @ Minnesota, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET

More often than not if we’re zeroing in on a total in a division game, we lean UNDER.   Long term numbers heavily favor the UNDER in division games.  Since 2003, only 8 teams in the entire NFL have hit more than 50% OVERS when playing against a division opponent.  That means 24 teams have hit UNDERS more than 50% of the time vs division teams.  Entering this season, the overall over/under record since 2005 in division games in the NFL is 1,160 OVERS & 1,317 UNDERS – thus +157 more UNDERS during that span.  We rate BOTH of these defenses ahead of their offenses at this point and yes that includes Green Bay.  Truth be told, the Packers offense was pretty average last year putting up just 23 PPG and we consider them a work in progress early in the season.  Jordy Nelson returns but he’ll take awhile to get back into top form.  Last week the Packer offense didn’t even reach 300 yards of total offense vs Jacksonville.  Now they face a Minnesota defense that is very solid and the strength of the Viking team.  Minnesota put up 25 points last week but 14 of those were from the defense.  They only scored 1 offensive TD.  They move to Bradford at QB this week but he’s only been with the team for 2 weeks so don’t expect any offensive explosions vs this solid Green Bay defense.  We like the UNDER as the Packers & Vikings open the brand new US Bank stadium.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -13 over San Francisco, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We’re not into laying huge numbers in the NFL very often, however if there was ever a spot to do it, this is it and we will.  The Panthers obviously have Super Bowl aspirations and with their opening week loss @ Denver, they can’t afford to lose this one.  They’ve had extra time to get ready for this game as well having played on their opener on Thursday.  San Fran, on the other hand, had to play on Monday night and looked very good in their 28-0 win.  Now on a short week they have to travel to the east coast to face one of the top teams in the NFL.  We saw a similar situation last year when the Niners opened on Monday night with a home win over Minnesota and then had to travel to Pittsburgh in week 2.  The result of that game?  Steelers 43, Niners 18.  The San Francisco defense looked good shutting down the Rams horrendous offense.  It will be a different story this week facing a Carolina offense that led the league in scoring last year at 31 PPG.  Offensively, the Niners have one of the weakest passing attacks in the NFL behind QB Gabbert.  They must run the ball well to be successful.  They did just that vs the Rams but now face a rested and angry Carolina defense that didn’t play well in week 1 with Denver running the ball very well.  That’s the same Panther defense that allowed only 86 YPG rushing last year (4th in the NFL) so you can bet they’ll be ready here.  If SF gets down big, which we predict they will, they have very little “come back” ability.  This game has 28-7 or 35-10 written all over it.  Carolina in a blowout.

ASA PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +4.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We’re surprised to see the Giants as such a hefty favorite here.  We were on the GMen last week vs the Cowboys and got a push, however we weren’t fairly underwhelmed with their performance.  They were playing a Dallas team starting a rookie QB and needed a late TD (6:00 minutes remaining) to get a 1-point win.  On top of that the Giants had fewer first downs and less yardage.  Not very impressive.  Now off an important division win we can see this one as not being quite as important as it is to the Saints.  That’s because New Orleans lost at home 35-34 to the Raiders who scored late and went for 2 to get the win.  The Saints blew a 14 point 3rd quarter lead but had more first downs and outgained Oakland.  Drew Brees was fantastic throwing for 423 yards and 4 TD’s.  We expect him to have a huge day against a New York defense that allowed rookie Dak Prescott to throw for 227 yards last week.  This one is probably going to be a shootout with the total set a 53.  Even if New Orleans gets behind, they are not out of this one with their potent offense.  Their “back door ability” if they do get behind has to be taken into account as well.  The Giants haven’t had a great home field advantage as they’ve won only 4 of their last 13 games here.  We look for this one to go to the wire and we’ll grab the generous points.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 40 Points, NY Jets @ Buffalo, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET - on CBS

This total opened 42 and has been pushed down to 40.  Now we feel the value is on the OVER and we’ll grab it.  Last year’s two totals in this AFC East match up were 41.5 and 41.  Both went under hitting 39 each time, however a lot of points were left on the field.  The Jets lost both games 22-17 but had the ball deep in Buffalo territory in both games only to come up short.  In the first game last year, the Jets actually threw 3 interception in their final 3 possessions.  Buffalo struggled offensively last week @ Baltimore scoring just 7 points but they only ran 48 plays (Baltimore ran 66).  We expect them to put more on the board this week as they have scored at least 20 in 9 straight games vs the Jets.  New York looked solid offensively last week vs a very good Cincy defense putting up 22 points on 5.2 YPP.  Weather looks perfect and we like both to get to 20 here pushing this OVER the total.

ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Jets -1 over Buffalo, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET - on CBS

Both teams are 0-1 so the desperation will be alive for each.  With that being said, if both bring their “A” games, the Jets are simply the better team.  The Bills offense looked horrendous against a decent but not great Baltimore defense.  Buffalo had only 160 total yards on just 3.3 yards per play.  They crossed midfield only TWICE the enter game.  Now they face a Jets defense that ranked 5th in the NFL last season and looked very solid against a potent Bengal offense last week.  Meanwhile the Jets offense looked solid scoring 22 points on 5.2 YPP vs a very good Cincy defense.  The Bengals kicked a FG with under 1:00 minute remaining to pick up the 23-22 win.  The flyboys scored on 3 of their 5 first half possessions and had a 22 yard FG blocked on one of this first half drives.  The Jets will have a little extra motivation here as well as they lost both meetings last year by the same exact 22-17 score.  A closer look reveals that New York actually outplayed Buffalo and turnovers were the difference (as they are in most NFL games).  In the two games combined, the Jets had 30 first downs (to 31 for Buffalo), 618 yards (to 575 for Buffalo), 5.4 yards per play (to 4.2 YPPG for Buffalo), and a whopping 7 turnovers for the Jets (just 1 for Buffalo).  Even with that turnover disparity, the Jets had the ball deep in Buffalo territory late the game with a chance to win.  In BOTH games.  Where the line sits we basically have to pick the winner and we think that will be the better team – J-E-T-S!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5, LA Rams @ San Francisco, Monday at 10:20 PM ET

We like UNDER in the LA Rams versus the SF 49ers on Monday night. Last year in the two regular season meetings between these two NFC West rivals they combined to score 33 and 35 points with the later coming in OT. Vegas had Totals on those two contests of 41 and 39 respectively and now have a much higher number here in the season opener. The Niners had the lowest scoring offense in the NFL last year at just 14.9PPG while the Rams ranked slightly better at 17.5PPG which was 4th worst. Neither team has 'big play' capability in the passing game as they lack playmakers at the wideouts and neither team has a starting QB to get them the ball. No two teams in the NFL have worst QB situations than these two clubs as the Rams are forced to start Case Keenum (47.7QBR) while the 49ers counter with Blaine Gabbert (42.2QBR) or the other guy who I won't even mention. Los Angeles (St Louis) had the worst passing game in the NFL last year at just 175YPG while the 49ers were 29th at 203.4YPG. L.A. will rely heavily on running back Todd Gurley and their defense to win games this season.  Niners head coach Chip Kelly didn't produce in Philly with his vaunted college offense and it won't translate here in San Francisco, especially early on. Both defenses were better 'efficiency' wise compared to their Net Yards allowed seasonal stats last year and we expect both D-units to dominate on Monday night.  12 of the Rams 16 games last season ended with less points than tonight's Total. If you take out overtime, the 49ers and their opponents scored less than the Total on this game in 11 of their 16 games last year.  The Rams are on  6-1 'under' run dating back to last year and the offense is worse than it was a season ago. The Under has cashed in 18 of the 49ers last twenty three home games. Points will be hard to come by in this one....bet UNDER!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -3 over Washington, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET

The Redskins won the terrible NFC East by default last year despite getting outgained by an average of 28 YPG which ranked them 23rd in the NFL in that category.  The NFC Least was terrible in 2015 with the 3 other teams (Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles) combining for a 17-31 record.  Somebody had to win it, right?  That was the Skins who had, by far, the worst point differential of all the NFL playoff teams at +9 for the entire season.  There were 13 teams that had better point differentials than Washington and 22 teams that had better YPG differential.  They didn’t beat a winning team all last season.  While this was a playoff team last year by definition, they really weren’t good enough to be in the post-season and that was proven when wildcard team GB went into Washington and smoked the Skins 35-18 to quickly knock them out.  The Steelers are the MUCH better team here.  They were +45 YPG better than Washington offensively last year, +95 better in overall point differential and gave up 17 fewer YPG.  Pitt is far superior at QB with Roethlisberger vs Cousins and they also have the top WR in the NFL in Antonio Brown.  While RB Bell is out in this game, his back up DeAngelo Williams rushed for almost 1,000 yards last year so very little drop off there.  While Washington really didn’t deserve their post-season berth last year, the Steelers beat Cincy on the road and then outplayed eventual Super Bowl Champion Denver on the road in a 23-16 loss outgaining the Broncs by 72 yards.  Pitt put up almost 400 yards on a Bronco defense that allowed just 283 on the season.  Now this potent Steeler offense faces a Washington D that finished 28th in YPG allowed last year.  We’ll gladly lay the 3 points in this spot and take Pittsburgh. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* New England +6.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET

We realize Brady will be in street clothes watching this one and because of that this spread is set too high.  Give Belichick nearly a full TD and ample time to prepare and we have a very dangerous dog here.  Belichick took over as the Pats head coach in 2000 and New England has been an underdog 67 times in that span.  They are 44-22-1 ATS in those games.  If they are getting 6 points or more (they are currently +6) his Patriot team is 12-4 ATS (75%) with 7 of those being outright wins.  You can bet Belichick will have a great game plan going into this one.  Brady’s replacement, Jimmy Garappolo, looked solid in the pre-season and as long as he doesn’t make huge mistakes, New England has a chance to win this one outright.  He has the top TE combo in the NFL as targets with Marcellus Bennett teaming up with Gronk (he is ? here) this year.  Arizona looked absolutely terrible in the pre-season and the scary part is, even in game 3 when the starters played extensively, they were whipped by Houston and the starters only put up 10 points in the first half.  QB Carson Palmer threw 2 picks and didn’t look good.  The starting defense gave up 31 points in the first half of that game @ Houston.  Arizona is the favorite to win the Super Bowl this year but we think they might be a bit over valued entering the season.  Laying nearly a TD to New England is too high.  The Pats will keep this close

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5, San Diego @ Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

It’s always smart to at least take a look at the UNDER in a divisional game in the NFL.  You don’t always have to use the situation, however long term numbers heavily favor the UNDER in division games.  Since 2003, only 8 teams in the entire NFL have hit more than 50% OVERS when playing against a division opponent.  That means 24 teams have hit UNDERS more than 50% of the time vs division teams.  The overall over/under record since 2005 in division games in the NFL is 1,160 OVERS & 1,317 UNDERS – thus +157 more UNDERS during that span.  This AFC West rivalry has been a strong play to the UNDER.  The last 23 meeting have resulted in 15 UNDERS & 8 OVERS.  The last 4 meetings have all gone UNDER with an average point total of just 30.  Only 5 of the last 23 games between these two have gotten to 50 pts or higher.  On top of that, KC has gone UNDER in 35 of their last 56 home games and vs the AFC West the Chiefs are 40-23 to the UNDER their last 63.  We also expect a slower paced game as the Chiefs were 31st in the NFL in offensive pace last year and San Diego was middle of the pack.  This number is currently in the mid-40’s and too high.  Take the UNDER.

PLAY ON: DENVER BRONCOS: It's the Super Bowl rematch as the Panthers and Broncos square off Thursday night in Denver. Let's first talk about the last meeting and the importance it has on this game and how it will impact the outcome. In the Super Bowl the Broncos defense was absolutely dominating and they essentially won the game themselves. On the other side of the football Denver had less than 200 yards of total offense, just 11 first downs but still won the game by 14-points. Why? Because the defense sacked Newton six times, forced 4 turnovers, 1 for a TD and 1 that directly led to a touchdown. Yes, the Denver D lost a few key players but our NFL insiders tells us they won't miss a beat, still have the best D-line and secondary in the NFL. Some experts feel this Denver defense might be one of the best overall units they've seen in years.  In other words we don't expect a change on that side of the football for Denver so what about the offense? Former Broncos QB Peyton Manning was just 13 of 23 (56.6 percent) for 141 yards in the Super Bowl. He threw no touchdowns and one interception for a 56.6 passer rating, which ranks as the fourth-worst in Super Bowl history for winning quarterbacks. We're pretty confident young QB Trevor Siemian, who has had a great training camp, can manage this offense with the returning talent on the roster. Not to mention the Panthers start two rookie CB's which has only happened one other time since 1991. The Panthers were one of the league's best offenses statistically last year with QB Newton, RB Stewart and TE Olson but let's not forget they played the 6th easiest schedule in the NFL last season. Denver has 18 of the 22 overall starters from last year's team, are playing at home and getting points. In direct comparison, the Panthers were -4.5-point favorites last year on a neutral field and are now laying nearly the same number in Denver? Denver is 16-3 SU their last nineteen at home and have been a home dog of 3-point or less just three times in that span (3-0 SU/ATS). Carolina is 0-4 ATS their last four road games and while this is a revenge game the value clearly lies with Denver. Take the home team!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver +6 over Carolina, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET

We have to take the line value with Denver here.  Now that this team has pushed up to –5.5 or -6 in favor of the Panthers, we’ll jump on the Broncos.  To put this line in perspective, we’ll adjust the line as if Carolina was the home team.  With the line where it is set now, that would mean Carolina would be -10 at home vs Denver which is off.  When comparing this to their most recent 5 home games, you’ll see what we mean.  In those home games the Panthers were favored by 3 vs Arizona, 2.5 vs Seattle, 8.5 vs Atlanta, 10 vs Tampa, and 7 vs Washington.  That puts this current line in perspective and tells us where the value is.  Denver has been an underdog 5 times this year covering all 5 and winning 4 of those games outright over New England (twice), KC, and Green Bay.  As we all know they have the #1 defense in the NFL and completely shut down the Patriots and Tom Brady last week.  That’s not easy to do.  Teams with the better overall defense have won 40 of the 49 Super Bowls and that sits squarely in Denver’s corner here.  With 2 weeks to prepare we’re positive the Denver defense will have a great game plan to slow down Carolina.  The Panthers have obviously been very good in their first 2 playoff games both at home.  Now that they have to leave the confines of their home stadium and travel west.  They played a very weak slate away from home this year beating only one team that finished the season with a winning record.  Peyton Manning is obviously on his last leg for Denver but he’s played OK since he came back into the lineup.  He has gone 3 straight games without turning the ball over which is key here vs a Carolina team that is +20 in turnover margin (+6 turnovers more than the 2nd best margin).  Manning has been in this spot numerous times and has the savvy to manage this game and get a win.  He knows his role now.  Denver will play great defense and make this a “slow” paced, field position type game.  Carolina is definitely the “public” side here as their offense has been red hot.  The problem is that has made the Panthers an overvalued side here as we mentioned earlier.  That doesn’t bode well as teams that score 40+ points in the playoffs (Carolina did last week) are just 5-23 ATS their next game!  The dog is also 6-1 ATS the last 8 Super Bowls – last year was a pick-em game so it’s not included.  We think Denver’s defense keeps this close and getting nearly a TD is the way to go.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 45 - Denver vs Carolina, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET

We have the two most efficient defense in the NFL here with Denver ranking #1 in that category and Carolina #2.  The Panthers offense has been hot but Denver just held Pittsburgh & New England (two top notch offenses) to just 3 TD’s combined.  Carolina played a number of weak defenses throughout the year so we feel their overall numbers are bit skewed.  In fact, of their 16 regular season games, the Panthers only faced 2 teams that ended the season ranked in the top 10 in total defense.  The Bronco defense has allowed more than 20 points only 6 times this entire season and that includes their playoff games (18 games).  The Denver offense will be playing into one of the top defenses in the NFL as well.  The Broncs have turned into a “conservative” offense that runs the ball quite a bit.  They need this game to be lower scoring to have a chance and we think they’ll get a slower pace here.  Denver plays the field position game, Manning doesn’t make any mistakes, and this turns into a low scoring slugfest.  We like the UNDER in this game.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 47.5 Points - Arizona @ Carolina, Sunday at 6:40 PM ET

We are going to play UNDER in the Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers NFC Championship game. We will put ourselves on the opposite bet of the general public in this game and play 'under' the total. At first glance many bettors will look and say these two teams have the best offenses in the NFL, they'll score 30+ each but we really don't feel that will be the case. Let's first look at last weeks misleading results concerning both teams final scores. Green Bay and Arizona combined for 46 points but 6 of those came in OT, 7 came on a hail Mary at the end of regulation and 10 of Arizona's points came in the final 3:44 of the game. In last week's Seahawks versus Panthers game the Panthers scored just a couple minutes in, then immediately returned an INT for a TD for a quick 14-point lead. Carolina also benefitted from a short field after an INT for their third score. Then Seattle put up 10 points in the final 6 minutes of the game for 55 total points. A lot is being made of these two team's offenses but the defenses for both have been equally as good. Carolina allows just 5.0 yards per play overall (3rd) and 4.0 yards per rush (8th). Arizona gives up just 5.3YPPL (9th) and 4.0YPR (8th). When it comes to defensive efficiency ratings the Panthers rank 5th in the NFL while the Cards are 7th. The Cardinals have stayed 'under' the total in 6 of their last seven games overall (3 games versus top 15 scoring offenses) but the Panthers have gone over in 8 of their last 11. Carolina's recent 'over' run is misleading though as only one of those teams (Seattle) rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency ratings.  Last year when these same two teams met in the Playoffs they combined for 43 total points and we see similar results here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Denver, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET

These two met right here in Denver in late November with New England as a slight 2.5 point favorite.  The Pats led the game 21-7 with under 13:00 minutes remaining but the Broncs put on a furious rally and won 30-24 in OT.  Brock Osweiler was the Denver QB in that one and they relied heavily on the ground game with 29 combined carries for Anderson and Hillman for 172 yards.  You can bet New England and Bill Belichick will shore up their run defense here and force a less than stellar Peyton Manning to beat them.  We don’t think he can do it as his skills and arm strength have diminished considerably.  In fact, in last Sunday’s 23-16 win over an injury riddled Pittsburgh team, Manning’s QB Rating was just 35.9 which was his 2nd worst rating in any of his playoff games over the last decade.  The Broncos struggled to beat a Pittsburgh team with a QB that couldn’t throw down field due to an injured shoulder (Roethlisberger) and a team without their top WR or RB.  Even with that, Denver was trailing with 3:00 minutes remaining when they scored their go ahead TD.  Despite the shoulder injury, Roethlisberger was able to put up 339 yards through the air and a 53.2 QB Rating.  Needless to say, we expect Brady to have a big day on Sunday.  Pittsburgh dominated the all telling yards per play stats averaging 6.7 per snap compared to just 4.6 for Denver.  The Broncs had only TWO drives the entire game of 40 or more yards against an “OK” but not great Pittsburgh defense.  We feel the Broncos were a bit lucky to come out of last week with a win despite facing a beat up team playing their 4th consecutive week on the road.  New England led 21-6 in the 3rd and held on to top a red hot KC team 27-20.  That was despite New England running 27 FEWER offensive plays!  The Pats, unlike Denver, dominated the yards per play stat with 6.1 yards per snap compared to 4.6 for KC.  New England has the coaching edge and a huge advantage at the most important position on the field, QB.  We don’t think Denver can do enough offensively to win this game.  Take the PATRIOTS.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points - New England @ Denver, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET

To say the Broncos offense is struggling would be putting it lightly.  This team simply is not good offensively.  Last week vs an average Pittsburgh defense the Denver offense had only TWO drives of 40 or more yards.  That’s it and one was basically their final game winning drive.  They scored 23 points but in reality they should have gotten nowhere near that number.  They actually scored 10 of their 23 points in the final 3:00 minutes of the game.  In fact, the two teams combined for 25 points in the first 57 minutes of the game and 14 in the last 3 minutes.  Obviously Peyton Manning doesn’t have it anymore.  He can’t get the ball downfield taking big plays almost entirely out of the equation.  His QB Rating last week of 35.9 was his 2nd lowest in his NFL playoff career.  The Pats offense has tailed off the last 3 games scoring 20, 10, & 27 points.  In 2 of those 3 games they failed to reach 300 total yards.  They will be facing the #1 defense in the entire NFL so we don’t look for those recent numbers to improve on Sunday.  These two met earlier this year and Denver won the game 30-24 in OT.  That was a deceivingly high score as it was just 14-7 entering the 4th quarter.  With the total sitting where it is right now, the oddsmakers see a final score of New England 24, Denver 21.  We’d be shocked if Denver was able to get to 20 points in this game and we don’t expect New England’s offense to go off.  Take the UNDER here. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 43.5 Points - Seattle @ Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We feel these two should easily eclipse this total.  Seattle has scored at least 29 points in 7 of their last 9 games.  The failed to do so last week in Minnesota but we can throw that out the window as the conditions were brutally cold and windy.  We actually think that 10-9 outcome actually kept this total from pushing higher.  Carolina’s offense is vastly under rated as they’ve now put up 27 points or more in 13 of their last 14 games!  That includes topping 30 points 9 times during that stretch.  Many may not even realize that the Panthers are the highest scoring team in the league at 31 PPG.  Seattle ranks 9th at 26 PPG but their offense is playing much better than that right now.  They were held to 20 points or less in 4 of their first 8 games which means their overall numbers aren’t up to par with how they are actually playing offensively right now.  These two met earlier this season in Seattle and totaled 50 points and 720 yards of total offense.  They also met in the playoffs last year and totaled 48 points and put up over 700 yards of offense.  We see both these teams easily getting to the mid 20’s or higher and pushing this OVER this total.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -1 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

They had plenty of doubters, but the fact is Carolina was the best team in the NFL pretty much all season long.  Getting them at home and rested at this number is a gift.  Let’s not forget that the Panthers already faced off against Seattle this year and that was on the road in what many consider to be the toughest venue in the NFL.  Carolina won that game 27-23 outgaining the Hawks 383 to 334.  Seattle’s used up their “rabbit’s foot” last week when they won at Minnesota 10-9 as the Vikes missed a chip shot field goal to win.  Minny dominated the first 3 quarters leading 9-0 heading into the 4th and Seattle had just 162 total yards at that point.  While Carolina is rested and ready, Seattle is traveling for the 3rd straight week as they closed out the regular season @ Arizona.  Hard to believe a team that went 15-1 is undervalued but that is the case here.  The Panthers were 8-0 at winning by an average margin of 16 PPG and they are currently laying under a FG here.  Seattle’s “luck” runs out on Sunday.

We like the Arizona Cardinals over the Green Bay Packers. This is a great spot to play on the Cardinals and against the Packers. Green Bay is not in the best scheduling situation here having played on the West coast Dec 20th in Oakland then came home, went to Arizona the following week, then home to face Minnesota. And last week they went to the East coast to face Washington and now travel back to Arizona on short week having to play on Saturday. Green Bay beat Washington handily last week but we're not buying them. The Skins were over-rated and won a bad NFC East division yet they still managed to outgain the Packers despite getting beat 18-35.  The Packers offense has been OK, but did you know they average a full yard less per play offensively than the Cardinals. Arizona averages nearly 100 more yards per game too. Defensively the numbers are pretty similar as both give up around 5.7 yards per play but Green Bay is much worse at stopping the run as they allow 4.4 yards per rush (26th in NFL) compared to Arizona's 3.9YPR which is 10th best. In the recent meeting the Cards absolutely destroyed the Packers 38-8. When you factor in sacks (Arizona had 9 for minus 78 yards) the Packers and Aaron Rodgers had 77 net yards passing! Arizona racked up over 380 yards of total offense and outgained the Pack by 200 yards. After jumping up 17-0 the Cards were able to play conservative too and save 60-70% of their playbook for this rematch. With all the success Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has for a career there is one area of concern for Packer fans and that's his record on the road versus winning teams. Rodgers and the Pack are just 4-14 SU their last 18 away from home against a team with an above .500 record. Arizona gets it done at home where they won by an average of 11PPG on the season. Cards big. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas City +5 over New England, Saturday at 4:40 PM ET

New England was headed in the wrong direction at the end of the season.  They had two very meaningful games to close out the year and they couldn’t win either.  The Pats simply needed to win one of their final two games and they would have clinched home field throughout the playoffs.  On Dec 27th the Pats lost to the Jets 26-20 and were outgained by 144 yards.  Even more disturbing they then lost to Miami 20-10 and outgained by a whopping 242 yards in a game they needed to win.  That was against a Miami team that had lost 5 of their previous 6 games with their only win (before New England) coming by 2-points vs a decimated Baltimore team.  The big problem for them offensively is they can’t run the ball.  Since losing RB Blount 3 games ago, they’ve tried to piece together a backfield by signing a slow and aging Steven Jackson to go with their current roster of James White & Brandon Bolden.  In their final 3 games New England rushed for a total of 226 yards on 75 carries or just 3 YPC.  Don’t expect that to change against a KC defense allowing just 99 YPG on the season.  That will allow a very good KC pass rush (3 sacks per game) to tee off on an immobile and banged up (ankle) Tom Brady.  Not only that, the Chief defense leads the NFL in opposing QB pass completion percentage allowing just 56%.  The KC offense will be conservative and try and limit mistakes (turnovers).  They will do enough to stay in this game the whole way.  They have all the confidence in the world that they can win this game entering on an 11 game winning streak.  Tom Brady is just 11-15 ATS in the playoffs as the Pats usually come in a bit over valued.  That is the case here and we wouldn’t be surprised to see the Chiefs win this game outright.  We’ll take the points as for a nice cushion.

ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER 44.5 Points - Green Bay @ Washington, Sunday at 3:40 PM ET

Much has been made of the Packers offensive struggles down the stretch and we think that all changes here.  Green Bay has scored just 8 & 13 points in their final two games but those came against Arizona & Minnesota, two of the top 8 scoring defenses in the NFL.  Coming into those final 2 games, the Pack had scored 27 or more in 4 of their previous 5 games.  We look for them to get back to that production against a below average Washington defense.  Look for Aaron Rodgers and company to be much more comfortable throwing the ball against one of the worst pass defenses NFL allowing 258 YPG passing (25th in the NFL) and 7.3 yards per pass attempt (25th in the NFL).  Look for Mike McCarthy to lean heavily on his best player (Rodgers) to win this game.  The Packer offense will look much, much better this week.  On the other side of the ball, the Washington offense played lights out down the stretch scoring at least 30 points in each of their final 3 games.  QB Kirk Cousins had a great season finishing 5th in the NFL in QB Rating behind only Wilson, Dalton, Palmer, and Brady.  In those final 3 games Cousins threw 11 TD’s and no interceptions.  The Skins have averaged 26 PPG at home and we see no reason they don’t hit that number or at least close.  Add that to what we expect to be a much improved Green Bay offense vs a poor defense and this one gets OVER the total

ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati +3 over Pittsburgh, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET

These two teams met a few weeks ago with the Steelers prevailing 33-20 in Cincinnati. The Bengals actually outgained the Steelers in that game but lost their starting QB Andy Dalton on the opening drive of the game. Backup AJ McCarron played OK in relief and is a serviceable 2nd string NFL QB. The Bengals are arguably the most talented team in the playoffs and have an edge defensively here. Cincinnati is 2nd in the league in points allowed per game at 17.4PPG, 1st in opponents points per play (.270), 10th in yards per play allowed and 2nd in opponents TD’s allowed per game (1.8). The Bengals ‘weakness’ on defense is stopping the run,  but as of this writing the Steelers will have a hard time exploiting that as RB DeAngelo Williams is in a walking boot (listed as doubtful). Williams had 76 yards and 2 TD’s versus the Bengals in the most recent meeting. The Bengals should exploit a Steelers secondary that is 30th in the NFL in passing yard allowed per game, giving up more than 270YPG. Early in the season when these two teams met in Pittsburgh the line was a pick’em. Then most recently in Cincy the Bengals were minus 1-point and now they are getting a full field goal at home. Home teams in the Wildcard rounds are on a 65-35 SU run and we feel the Bengals get a home win here. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 40 Points - Kansas City @ Houston, Saturday at 4:40 PM ET

These two defenses played very well down the stretch but we feel their numbers during that run are a bit skewed due to the competition.  The Chiefs held their final 4 opponents to 17 or fewer points but those games came against San Diego, Baltimore (without Flacco), Cleveland, and Oakland.  Three of those four finished the season ranked 25th or lower in scoring and the only outlier, Oakland, finished 17th.  In fact, the only offense that KC played down the stretch (final 9 games) that ranked higher than Oakland in scoring (17th) was Buffalo at 12th.  Thus, the Chief defense didn’t face a single top 10 scoring offense in their final 9 games.  The Houston defense has a bit more to “brag” about as they at least faced a few good offenses down the stretch including New England, New Orleans, and Buffalo.  However 2 of those 3 (Pats & Bills) scored 27 or more in those games.  The Texans final 3 games they faced Indy, Tennessee, and Jacksonville, all below average offenses.  Now they face a KC offense that averages 25 PPG ranking them in the top 10.  The Chiefs are also ranked as the 6th most efficient offense in the NFL.  Houston’s offensive numbers are a bit deceiving in our opinion.  When Hoyer has been the starting QB, the Texans throw the ball much more and look much better offensively.  Hoyer came back last week after nearly a month off and helped the Texans put up 30 points vs Jacksonville.  He has averaged just under 35 pass attempts per game and with Hoyer under center Houston has scored at least 20 points in 9 of those 11 games.  With this total set so low, 20 points out of Houston will probably be more than enough to push this over.  When these two met earlier in the season they scored 47 and we look for similar numbers here.  Let’s also throw in the fact that we’ll have perfect weather conditions playing in Houston.  We expect both teams to get into the 20’s which pushes this one OVER the number.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston +3 over Kansas City, Saturday at 4:40 PM ET

The Chiefs come in on a well-publicized 10 game winning streak.  However, they have been far from dominant during this run outgaining those 10 opponents by an average of just 11 YPG.  Turnovers have been the key as they are +16 during that 10 game run and that can’t be counted on to continue game after game.  Especially vs the Texans who’ve protected the ball very well with just 10 turnovers total in their last 11 games.  Let’s also not forget that while that 10 game run is impressive, they beat only 2 teams during that stretch that ended the year with above .500 records and there needs to be an “asterisk” placed by both of those games.  They topped Pittsburgh with Roethlisberger out and beat Denver in the game that Peyton Manning went out and was replaced by Osweiler and didn’t come back until last week.  These two met here in the season opener and KC was a 1-point favorite.  The Chiefs won 27-20 but were outgained by almost 70 yards but +2 in turnovers.  Down the stretch run KC was favored by 3 @ Oakland and by 3 @ SD, two non-playoff teams.  Now they are laying the same or even a bit more in some places which gives us value on the host.  Since 2003 NFL playoff dogs are 71-58 ATS and that trend continues in this game.

Under  – Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers - 8:30 PM ET - This is a winner take all battle for the NFC North crown and we expect a defensive battle.  Green Bay is still viewed as one of the better offenses in the league but the fact is they are not.  They are a middle of the pack team in scoring (23 PPG) and they are averaging only 333 YPG which ranks them 24th in the NFL.  They don’t have any downfield threats on the outside and Aaron Rodgers has had the play the dink and dunk game for much of the year.  Their offensive line is banged up and we look for the Packers to struggle offensively again tonight.  They allowed 38 points last week to the top scoring team in the league (Arizona).  However the Cards scored 2 defensive TD’s in the game which really skewed their final point tally.  In their 6 games leading up to last week’s match up in Arizona, the Packer defense had allowed 18, 13, 17, 23, 7, and 20 points.  Minnesota comes in with one of the top defenses in the NFL (#6 in scoring allowing 19 PPG) and a so-so at best offense (scoring 23 PPG).  The Vikes have looked very good offensively the last two weeks putting up a lot of points but those games were against Chicago & the NY Giants, two teams out of the playoff race with suspect defenses.  They love to turn the ball (30 attempts per game) which eats up clock.  The Vikes passing game is below average (31st in pass attempts per game) and lacks big play ability just as the Packers do.  GB win the first match up 30-13 but the Pack had only 320 yards of total offense so they were lucky to put up 30.  Even with that, that score still stays under this number.  These two have been under teams all season long going a combined 9-20-1 to the UNDER.  The windchill in GB tonight will be in the low teen’s and we look for a defensive battle.  Take the UNDER.

UNDER San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos - 4:25PM ET - We will play UNDER in the San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos game. The Broncos need a win here and control their own destiny. San Diego is looking forward to the off season. The Broncos gameplan is obvious here as they'll let their defense dictate the tempo, play conservative offensively and win a game without making mistakes. The Denver defense is the best in the league: 4th in PPG allowed at 18.4, 1st in opponents yards allowed 280.9, 3rd opponents points per play .286, 1st in opponents yards per play etc...etc...etc...In the first meeting of the season the Broncos held the Chargers to less than 280 total yards of offense and just 3 points. The Chargers offense is one dimensional and predictable as their offensive line has been decimated by injuries, they have no running game and injuries at the wideout position. San Diego has scored just 3 in three of their last 6 games. They did top 20 points in three of their last six games but that came against three defenses that rank 21st or worst in the NFL...NOT 1ST! Denver runs the football on average 25 times per game but in the first meeting against the Chargers they ran it 39 times. San Diego allows 4.7 yards per rush which is 30th in the league and Denver will look to exploit that weakness again on Sunday. More running plays means less clock stoppage and a lower scoring game. Denver has topped 27 points just 4 times this year and one of those games was an OT affair. The Under is 5-1 the last six meetings including a 22-10 (32 points) game last year in Denver.  The bet here is obvious...UNDER!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver -3 over Cincinnati, Monday at 8:30 PM ET

The Bengals clinched the AFC North with Pittsburgh’s loss on Sunday to a bit of a letdown might be in order here.  It’s also their 2nd straight week having to travel west after beating SF on the road 24-14 last week.  It’s not an ideal spot for the Bengals.  In that game last week in San Fran the Bengals were actually outgained by what many consider the worst team in the NFL but benefitted from 4 Niner turnovers and 11 SF penalties.  It was QB AJ McCarron’s first NFL start and he was OK at best throwing for 192 yards against the NFL’s 27th ranked overall defense.  Now he faces the NFL’s top defense in the 2nd start of his career and he’ll have to play a whole lot better than he did last week to give Cincinnati a chance here.  We’re getting some value here at home with Denver.  They are off 2 straight losses and really need a win here.  Both losses were of the “deceiving” nature.  Two weeks ago they lost here to Oakland 17-15 despite outgaining the Raiders by almost 200 yards.  Last week they had Pittsburgh on the ropes at home leading 27-10 before a furious Steeler comeback netted them a 7 point win.  Two very disappointing losses should have this team very focused in front of a national audience on Monday.  This becomes a HUGE game for Denver as a loss here opens the door for KC to possibly win the division.  In this situation, we’re definitely willing to lay a small number with the home team that has won 30 of their last 36 games here.  Take Denver!

ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +7 over Minnesota, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET

After back-to-back losses Minnesota bounced back with a convincing win over the Bears and a strong game from Teddy Bridgewater. The Vikings have not officially clinched a playoff spot but they are in a great position as they simply need a win earlier in the day by either Carolina or Seattle (both big favorites) and Minny will be headed to the post-season.  That may cause a bit of a "letdown" here knowing they are in.  The bigger game is next week in Green Bay which will most likely be for the NFC North Title.  While the Giants were officially eliminated from playoff contention yesterday, this line has been adjusted WAY too much in our opinion.  The Giants have been competitive in all but one of their 8 losses including last week's 3 point loss to the undefeated Panthers.  In fact, 7 of NY's 8 losses have come by 6 points or less.  This number is now set too high with a over valued Minnesota team who is just 9 points better than the Giants in point differential.  Take the points.

We like the Arizona Cardinals over the Green Bay Packers. This is a great spot to play on the Cardinals and against the Packers. Both need to win for playoff positioning so that's a wash. Green Bay is not in the best scheduling situation here having played on the West coast last week against the Raiders and now having to travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals. Green Bay won by 10 last week over Oakland but they did get outgained in the game by 80+ total yards. The Packers offense is pretty good but did you know they average a full yard less per play offensively than the Cardinals. Arizona average nearly 100 more yards per game too. Defensively the numbers are pretty similar as both give up around 5.7 yards per play but Green Bay is much worse at stopping the run as they allow 4.4 yards per rush (26th in NFL) compared to Arizona's 3.9YPR which is 10th best. The Cards have a new found weapon in running back David Johnson who has rushed for over 378 yards in the past three games and has 12 TD's on the season. With all the success Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has for a career their is one area of concern for Packer fans and that's his record on the road versus winning teams. Rodgers and the Pack are just 3-13 SU their last 16 away from home against a team with an above .500 record. Arizona gets it done at home where they win by an average of 11PPG on the season. Cards big. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 41.5 Points - St Louis @ Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

The Seahawks offense has been on an absolute tear scoring 30 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games.  The one game they didn’t reach 30 points during that stretch they put up 29.  Many believe the Ram defense is one of the tops in the NFL but they look to be running out of gas.  They have allowed 23 or more points in 4 of their last 6 games.  Last week they “held” Tampa to 23 points but the Bucs put up over 500 total yards of offense so that number was quite deceiving.  The problem has been the Ram offense but they looked to have gained some momentum the last few weeks scoring 21 & 31 points.  With this number set very low, St. Louis may have to get to only 14 or so points to push this over the total.  We’ll look for Seattle’s offense to continue their onslaught and top 30 by themselves.  The first meeting between these two (first game of the year) they put up 65 points.  While we don’t expect those type numbers today, we think they can absolutely get to the upper 40’s pushing this OVER the TOTAL.

PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -3 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We don’t see the Bears showing up for this one.  They are officially out of the playoff race and they didn’t show up to play last week vs division rival Vikings – a 21-point loss.  Now on the road again in a meaningless game we think the Bears are probably done here.  Tampa is off a loss @ St. Louis but they easily won the battle of the stats outgaining the Rams by nearly 200 yards!  Tampa continues to play hard as they have now outgained 6 of their last 7 opponents.  We realize the Bucs are out of the playoff mix as well but with a young team and young QB, they are building for next year.  The Bucs have exceeded expectations this year while Chicago was anticipating a run at the playoffs and fell far short.  Tampa has outgained their opponents by an average of 35 YPG and probably should have a better mark than 6-8.  The weather also calls for 85 degrees and humid in Tampa which definitely favors the team that is used to those conditions.  Look for Chicago to wear down in the 2nd half as Tampa pulls away.

#102 Oakland Raiders (-5.5) over San Diego Chargers - Thursday, 7:25PM CT - We are going to play  on the Oakland Raiders minus the points over the  visiting San Diego Chargers. As happens so often late in the season a bad team like San Diego gets a much needed win (last week over Miami) and then take the following week off in preparation for the off-season. We think that's the case this week as a bad San Diego team, that has scored just 3 points offensively in three of their last five games, and coming off a home game which might be their last in San Diego, doesn't show up. Oakland on the other hand outgained Green Bay at home last week but still lost by 10-points. San Diego is beat up on the O-line, at the receiver position and running back offensively. Oakland rates a solid edge in the running game as the Chargers have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL allowing 4.7 yards per carry and 120.6 yards per game. Oakland also has the pass defense that can contain what the Chargers do best offensively and that's throwing the football. Oakland is 10th in opponents yards per pass (6.6) and 16th in opponents completion percentage defense. Earlier this year when these two teams met the Raiders beat the Chargers 37-29 but that final is misleading as the Bolts scored a meaningless TD with 6 seconds left in the game. San Diego is just 1-5 SU on the road this season with that win coming at Jacksonville but their other losses have all come by an average of 8PPG. Oakland has lost three straight at home but they came against Green Bay, Kansas City and Minnesota who are all VASTLY better than the Chargers. The Raiders will give their home fans a big win here over a Chargers team that will be more interested in Christmas and the off-season. Lay the points. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - ASA's AFC vs NFC GAME OF THE YEAR

This line is set too low.  No need to over react with Bengal QB Andy Dalton out here.  Let’s not forget that his replacement AJ McCarron actually had decent numbers last week if you minus his 2 picks (22 for 32 for 280 yards and 2 TD’s).  Let’s also not forget that McCarron will have the entire week to prepare with the starters AND it’s not as if he needs to light it up as the QB on the other side is Blaine Gabbert who has a lifetime record of 7-25 as a starter.  Even if we call it “even” at the QB spot, the Bengals are superior almost everywhere else.  This is a 10-3 team, off a loss, that is still fighting for their division title playing one of the worst teams in the NFL.  The Bengals have the most efficient offense in the NFL and the 8th most efficient defense.  The Niners are 30th and 31st in those categories.  Sure San Fran is a respectable 3-3 at home but since catching Minnesota off guard here to start the year, their other home wins have come by 1 point over Atlanta (who has lost 6 straight games) and by 5 over Baltimore (who has a 4-9 record).  This is a huge game for the superior team and the line is more than manageable.  Take Cincinnati.

ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER 42.5 Points - Cleveland @ Seattle, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

The odds are pretty good that Seattle will put up big numbers in this game.  This offense has been rolling behind QB Russell Wilson who has had one of the best 4 game runs of any QB ever in the NFL.  Going back 5 games, the Seahawks have scored at least 32 points 4 times.  The one time they did not reach that number, they scored 29.  Now they are facing a Cleveland defense that looked solid last week holding SF to 10 points but let’s face it, the Niners have one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  Prior to last week the Browns defense had allowed 5 straight opponents to reach at least 30 points.  We expect that to happen again on Sunday.  Cleveland’s offense had been dreadful but received a spark last week with Johnny Manziel inserted as starting QB.  He responded last week putting up 24 points on almost 500 total yards.  He will put them in position again this week to put points on the board but also is prone to turnovers which may give Seattle a defensive TD or a few “short” fields as well.  Either way, Manziel is a positive for scoring in this game.  This number is set too low and we think it goes OVER easily.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +5.5 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH

We’ve felt all season that Minnesota was playing above their heads and they weren’t as good as their record might indicate.  After starting the year winning 7 of their first 9 games, they are now proving us correct losing 3 of their last 4 games.  Despite their 8-5 record, the Vikes are getting outgained by 25 yards per game.  The Bears have lost 2 straight but as usual, both went down to the wire.  In fact, Chicago has been right there in the vast majority of their games and could have a much better record.  In fact, since their poor 0-3 start to the season, the Bears most recent 5 losses have all come by 3 or fewer points or in overtime.  Despite their losing record, Chicago is outgaining their opponents by 30 YPG.  These two met earlier this year and the Bears blew a TD lead with under 2:00 minutes left in a 23-20 loss.  The Bears are just 1-6 at home but have a winning 4-2 mark on the road with wins over Green Bay & KC.  These two NFC North rivals have had each of their last 5 meetings decided by 8 points or less.  Another close game here and we’ll grab the points.

ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +4 over Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This is a MUCH bigger game for the host Giants.  They are tied atop the NFC East with Washington & Philly and simply can’t afford a slip up.  Carolina has already clinched the AFC South and a bye and they will almost assuredly be the top seed in the NFC.  There has been talk about head coach Ron Rivera giving some of his key players a break down the stretch to get them ready for the playoffs.  Rivera’s team is a bit banged up including QB Newton, RB Stewart (out), TE Olsen, and LB Kuechly all nursing injuries.  Watch for him to be very careful with this team moving forward.  The Panthers are coming off an easy home win over a struggling Atlanta team but in their previous road tilt they were taken to the wire in New Orleans.  The G-Men are 3-3 at home but their losses have all come by 4 points or less including a 1-point loss to New England and an OT loss to the Jets.  The Giants have played nearly everyone close as 6 of their 7 wins have come by 6 points or fewer.  We’ve got a feeling this one could be an upset.  Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay +2.5 over St. Louis - Thursday at 8:30 PM ET

This is a bad match up for the Rams in our opinion.  The St Louis offense stinks right now.  They rank 31st in the NFL in total yards and they can’t pass the ball (dead last in the NFL) because of their QB situation.  Case Keenum gets his 3rd start of the season tonight and in his other 2 starts STL has done nothing through the air (136 yards & 124 yards passing).  The problem is, Tampa has a very good run defense (allowing 94 YPG) so we don’t see the Rams doing much offensively tonight.  Really tough to lay points with an offense that averages only 16 PPG and team that has been outgained 5 straight weeks.  The Rams have scored just 6 offensive TD’s in their last 5 games.  The Bucs have been a surprise this year.  They are still alive for an NFC playoff berth so this is a big game for them.  Tampa has outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents and they are off a home loss to New Orleans so we look for them to be extra hungry here.  After a rough start to the season rookie QB Jameis Winston has played very well with 12 TD’s and just 4 picks over his last 9 games.  The 6-7 Bucs have actually played better than that record indicates outgaining opponents 6.0 YPP to just 5.3 YPP.  Tampa is 3-3 on the year away from home with wins over the Eagles, Saints, and Falcons.  The better team is the dog here and we like Tampa.

ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +1 over Miami, Monday at 8:30 PM ET

The Giants still have much more to play for as a win tonight keeps them in a tie for 1st place in the NFC East.  The Fins are way out of the playoff race.  New York has lost 3 straight but they’ve been right there in every game.  Those losses include a 1-point setback to New England, a 6-point loss @ Washington, and an OT loss to the Jets.  The Giants led both the Pats & Jets with under 2:00 remaining in the game.  Miami had a couple of high effort games immediately after the firing of head coach Philbin but they have tanked it since.  After beating Tennessee & Houston after the firing of Philbin, the Fins have since gone 2-4.  Their two wins were “lucky” in our opinion as they beat the Eagles by 1-point but got outgained by 150 yards and beat Baltimore (without Flacco) by 2-points but were outgained again by 150 yards.  All 4 of their losses during this stretch have come by double digits.  NYG are the better team with much more to play for.  Take Eli Manning and company tonight.

ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Houston, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET

After winning their first 10 games of the season the Pats have now lost back to back games for just the 3rd time since the start of the 2010 season.  New England has not lost 3 games in a row since 2002.  They are now 31-12 ATS when coming off an outright loss.  The odds are with us that they’ll get it done here.  Last week’s loss to Philly can be tossed aside.  New England jumped out to a 14-0 lead but had one of the “unluckiest” games we’ve seen.  They outgained the Eagles by 180 yards but Philly scored on a 99-yard interception return, an 83-yard punt return, and an fumble returned for a TD.  The Eagle offense actually only scored 14 points and had just 248 total yards in their 35-27 win.  Houston had somewhat of a resurgence over the past month and a half but most of their wins came against lower tier teams.  Heading into their game last Sunday @ Buffalo, the Texans had won 5 of 6 with their wins coming over Jacksonville, Tennessee, New Orleans, NY Jets, and Cincinnati (the only top tier team).  Last week the Texans came back down to earth in their 30-21 loss @ Buffalo.  Houston is decent, but New England and Tom Brady will be out for blood after losing 2 in a row and at this low number we have to take the Pats.   

ASA PLAY ON 10* Oakland +8 over Denver, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

The Denver offense looked terrible last week against one of the worst defenses in the league (San Diego).  The Broncos offense tallied just 293 yards and only scored 10 points (they have a defensive TD) against a Charger defense that has allowed 27 PPG and 370 YPG this season.  The Broncos were able to still pick up the 17-3 win against a San Diego offense that can’t run the ball at all and has been held to 3 points in 2 of their last 3 games.  Much has been made of QB Brock Osweiler and his 3-0 record but the fact is those wins were by 2 points vs Chicago, in OT vs a very depleted New England team that has now lost 2 straight games, and last week vs a Charger team heading south in a hurry.  We still feel Denver is over valued and this is a nice spot to go against them with huge games vs Pittsburgh & Cincinnati on deck.  The Raiders have had a rough go over the last month losing 4 of their last 5 games but they have been “right there” in most of them.  They lost by 3 @ Pittsburgh, by 5 @ a now hot Detroit, and despite losing by 14 last week to the sizzling Chiefs, they actually outgained KC by 130 yards and they were +12 first downs.  Oakland has been waiting for this game after losing 16-10 at home earlier in the year despite Denver not scoring a single offensive TD.  The Raiders showed some life offensively last week and we think they do enough to keep this game close.  Too many points here and we grab Oakland.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +3 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC NORTH GAME OF THE YEAR

We view this 7-5 Steeler team as one of the best in the NFL right now.  They might be playing as well as anyone right now.  They are off a game last Sunday in which they crushed Indianapolis 45-10 outgaining the Colts by almost 300 yards!  A week earlier this Pitt team completely outplayed Seattle on the road outgaining them by over 100 yards but lost a close game due to a -4 turnover margin.  With QB Ben Roethlisberger now back in the line up and healthy, Pittsburgh has outgained each of their last 5 opponents by a combined total of 718 yards.  The offense is clicking as they are averaging 36 PPG over their last 4.  In those four games the Steeler offense has put up 597, 538, 522, and 459 yards.  Cincy is 10-2 but they are not playing their best football right now and we feel Pittsburgh is the better team at this point in the season.  The Bengals are 3-2 their last 5 games but their wins in that stretch have come against Cleveland (twice) & St. Louis.  Their losses were at home to Houston and @ Arizona.  These two teams met back on November 1st and Pittsburgh knows they gave one away in that game.  The Steelers lost 10-6 but outgained Cincinnati 356 to 296.  The Black & Gold were leading that game with under 3:00 minutes remaining but gave up a TD & FG in the final minutes.  If it weren’t for 3 Roethlisberger interceptions ALL in his own territory and leading to 10 of Cincy’s 16 points, we have no doubt the Steelers win that game.  To say the Steelers have had success playing @ Cincinnati would be an understatement.  Since 1991, the Men of Steel have won 20 of their 25 games @ Cincinnati.  That includes an easy 42-21 whipping of the Bengals last year as a 3-point dog.  This is a MONSTER game for Pittsburgh.  Sitting at 7-5 they need this game to keep their playoff hopes moving forward.  The Bengals are sitting in a much better spot and this is not a must win for them.  Pittsburgh is the better team right and now and we’re getting points.  We’ll take them.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Buffalo -1 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Heading into last week it looked to most like the Eagles had quit.  There were rumblings of a divided locker room and players not agreeing with Chip Kelly, thus quitting on their coach.  They had lost 3 straight games and it wasn’t pretty.  They lost at home to a bad Miami team and then were crushed in back to back games vs Tampa & Detroit.  Did any of that change last week with their 35-27 win over New England?  We don’t think so.  Let’s face it, the Eagles had luck on their side last week.  Despite the win, they were outgained by 180 yards but were able to score TD’s on an 83-yard punt return, a 99-yard interception return, AND a blocked punt return.  The Philly offense only accounted for 248 total yards and 2 TD’s.  They were also -12 first downs and minus nearly 10 minutes in time of possession.  A very, very deceiving win.  This team still isn’t very good and they don’t believe in their coach.   They are facing a Buffalo team that is playing very well right now.  The Bills knocked off a red hot Houston team last week and they have won 3 of their last 5.  Their 2 losses during that stretch came on the road @ New England by 7 and @ red hot KC by 8.  Those games both went to the wire and were undecided late.  Buffalo is 3-3 on the road this year and still playing hard as they try to make the playoffs with a current 6-6 record.  Philly has almost no home field advantage.  They are just 2-3 SU here this year and 21-26 SU their last 47 home games.  Their spread record during that stint is only 18-29 ATS.  Despite their “lucky” win last week, this Eagle team is heading in the wrong direction getting outgained by 520 yards over their last 3 games.  Take Buffalo here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago -3 over Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Bears are off a home OT loss last Sunday to San Francisco.  Despite the loss, Chicago was +7 in first downs, +73 yards, and +13:00 minutes in time of possession.  They also had 1 turnover (0 turnovers for the Niners) but it was a costly one as it was a Cutler interception returned for a TD.  The Bears missed 2 FG’s and were in San Francisco territory on 8 of their 13 offensive drives.  Conversely, the Niners only crossed midfield 3 times before their 71-yard TD pass on their first offensive play in overtime.  Chicago should have won that game easily and we expect a huge effort on Sunday as they are now in desperation mode with a record of 5-7.  Washington is working on a short week after losing to arch rival Dallas on Monday night.  It will be a tough turnaround for the Skins after a huge division game.  Not only that, Washington thought they had pushed the game into overtime scoring they tying TD with 44 seconds remaining only to watch the Cowboys quickly get into FG range and hit a 54 yarder to win 19-16.  The Redskins have actually been fairly solid at home but they flat out stink on the road.  They are 0-5 away from home losing by an average margin of -15 PPG.   The Bears have the better offensive AND defensive numbers on the season.   Chicago is +9 YPG on the year while Washington is -30 YPG on the season.  We like the Bears to bounce back after a game they should never have lost and pick up a home win on Sunday.

MONEYLINE WAGER: REDSKINS

What an ugly Monday Night game tonight between the Cowboys and Redskins but somebody has to win (and cover) and we like Washington. Both have plenty to play for as neither is officially out of the Division playoff race.  The Cowboys big problem with their offense that ranks 29th  in points per game (18.5PPG), 26th yards per game (331.3YPG) and 28th in points per play (.298).  They have been outrushed in three of their last four games so it's not just the passing attack in Dallas that is suffering.  Dallas on the road without Romo has been horrendous this season averaging just 15.3PPG their last three away from home. Washington and QB Kirk Cousins has been dynamite at home this season with 5 straight wins and which have come by an average of 11.4PPG. Washington is better than average offensively in points per play, yards per play, 3rd and 4th down conversions and red zone TD's. The Redskins have covered 8 of the last 10 meetings and we like them to get a 7 or more point home win here

ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -9 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET

The Colts have been outgained in 9 of their last 10 including last week’s win at home vs Tampa.  Hasselbeck is 3-0 beating Tampa, Jacksonville, and Houston but Indy was outgained in all 3 of those games by a combined margin of -132 yards.  Their luck runs out here against a very good Pittsburgh game.  The Steelers, who in our opinion are one of the best teams in the NFL, are in must win mode with a 6-5 record.  They outplayed Seattle on the road last week in a 39-32 loss outgained the Hawks by over 100 yards.  4 interceptions were the difference in that game.  Roethlisberger has been cleared to play after a concussion last week and we look for Pittsburgh to put up big numbers again offensively.  They have outgained each of their last 4 opponents by a combined 420 yards.  On the season Pittsburgh is +0.7 YPP while Indy is -0.7 YPP.  Last year the Steeler walloped a good Indy team 51-34 putting up almost 700 total yards.  That was WITH Andrew Luck at QB.  Pittsburgh is the much better team here and they are backed into a corner making them very dangerous.  Steelers win by at least 2 TD’s on Sunday.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 45.5 points - KC @ Oakland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

We will play OVER in the Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders game.  The Chiefs got off to a horrible start to the season but have found their 'groove' by winning 5 straight.  After scoring 21 or less points in three straight games prior to the winning streak the offense has exploded for 29 or more points in 4 of 5 games and have averaged 32PPG their last five. Will they score against the Raiders today?  You bet they will!  Oakland's defense is all of a sudden hemorrhaging points as they've allowed 29 or more points in 3 of their last 6 games.  Oakland 26th in the NFL in points allowed per game at 25.5PPG and rank 20th or worse in several key defensive categories.  Offensively the Raiders have plenty of weapons with QB Carr and wideouts Crabtree and Cooper.  Oakland is 10th in yards per game O, 8th in points per play at .387 and 12th overall in scoring at 24PPG.  Going back to the KC offense they are 5th in scoring at 26.1PPG, 5th in points per play at .418 and 11th in yards per play O.  The last three meetings between these two teams have all ended with 44 or  more points.  The bet here is obvious to us and the stats support it...OVER!

Over 46 Points – NY Jets @ NY Giants – One flat out bad defense and an over rated defense are what we have in this game.  The Giants are dead last in the NFL in YPG allowed at 420.  They also allow over 6 YPP and they have been a bit lucky this year to allow only 24 PPG.  With YPG & YPP stats like the ones above, a team will usually allow usually 27 to 30 PPG.  The Jets defense began the season on a tear holding 3 of their first 4 opponents to 14 points or less.  Since then they’ve allowed every offense they’ve faced to score at least 20 points (7 straight games).  They’ve allowed 25 PPG during that stretch which would rank them 25th in the NFL if it was a season long stat.  The Jet offense has scored at least 20 points in 6 of their last 8 games.  The only two times they were held under that number they scored 17 and both were against top of the line defenses (Houston & Buffalo).  Against bottom of the barrel type defense like the Giants the Jets have looked very good scoring 38 & 27 vs Miami, 34 vs Washington, and 28 vs Jacksonville.  We look for those type numbers on Sunday.  The Giant offense is one of the best in the NFL averaging 26 PPG (6th in the league).  They are off a poor performance last week scoring only 14 and we look for a bounce back this week.  In their four games leading up to last week the G-Men put up 27, 49, 32, and 26 points.  This total is set too low and we like the OVER.

PLAY UNDER PACKERS VS LIONS

The bet to make tonight is on the UNDER in the Packer/Lions game. These teams have clearly had some ups and downs but analyzing recent trends we find both teams defenses played extremely well. The Packers have allowed 18, 13 and 17 points their last three games and over 50 less yards per game defensively in that same time frame (7th best average in the NFL last three games).  The same can be said about the Lions defense the last three games as they've allowed just 16, 13 and 14 points and 80 less yards per game defensively which is the 4th best average in the past three weeks. Both teams are playing exceptionally well in the defensive backfields and can neutralize both Rodgers and Stafford forcing each team to run the football. In the first meeting of the season these two teams combined for just 650 total yards of offense and 34 total points. The 'under' has cashed 4 of the last five meetings on this field and we expect another lower scoring game tonight. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 41 Points - Baltimore @ Cleveland, Monday at 8:30 PM ET

Two of the NFL's worst defenses square off tonight and we expect both teams to put up plenty of points to go over this number.  Cleveland gives up 27.7PPG which is 30th in the league, 407.3 yards per game (30th), .421 points per play (30th), 6.2 yards per play (30th) and opponents red zone TD's per game at 3.2 (31st).  Baltimore is slightly better in those same categories but this isn't the same Ravens defense that had Ray Lewis playing on it.  Baltimore is 23rd in points allowed per game at 24.9PPG, 17th in yards per game, 23rd in points per play and 17th in yards per play defense.  The Ravens have allowed 20+ points in 9 of their last 10 games overall.  Cleveland has given up 26 or more points in 7 of their last eight and 30+ in 5 of their last seven.  When these two met earlier this season (the last game QB Josh McCown started) the Browns put up 33 points, 25 first downs and over 500 yards of total offense with McCown racking up 457 through the air.  Baltimore has a change at QB tonight too with Matt Schaub getting the start for the injured Flacco but we don't see a dramatic drop off as Schaub has been a starter in this league for years and should be ready for the opportunity (ie: Matt Hasselbeck for the Colts).  The Ravens have gone over the total in 5 of their last 8 against the rest of the AFC North and Cleveland has gone over in 4 straight at home.  Even mediocre offense will look good against subpar defenses tonight. BET OVER!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +3.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - ASA's AFC vs NFC GAME OF THE MONTH

The Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger healthy are definitely the better team here in our opinion.  Seattle just isn’t the Seattle of last year.  A team that was seemed invincible at home already has 2 losses here and their home wins have come against Chicago (without Cutler), Detroit by 3, and San Fran.  Pittsburgh is better than their 6-4 record as 2 of their 4 losses have come with Roethlisberger out.  The two losses with him in the line up were tight games vs two of the NFL’s best (New England & Cincy).  When Big Ben is in the line up, the Steelers have outgained every opponent this season.  They’ve also had 2 weeks to prepare for this one giving them a huge advantage.  The Seahawks have beaten up on the weaklings of the NFL and struggled with the good teams.  They are 5-5 and have yet to beat a team with a current record above .500.  The Seattle defense, which was impenetrable last year, has already allowed 27 or more points 5 times this season.  Seattle beat SF last week and they are 0-6 ATS their last 6 following an outright win.  Pitt thrives as a dog with a 32-19-3 ATS mark since 2004.  We like the Steelers on Sunday.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -5.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's NFL HOME CHALK GAME OF THE MONTH

The Bills are in a tough scheduling situation here coming off a HUGE Monday night affair against the Patriots and now travel to Kansas City to face a Chiefs team playing extremely well right now.  The Chiefs really struggled defensively to start the season but in their last six games they've allowed just 18, 16, 13, 10, 13 and 3 points or just 12.1PPG.  In their last three games the Chiefs have allowed the second fewest yards defensively in the entire NFL They've also found their rhythm offensively by scoring 23, 45, 29 and 33 points their last four games and they outgained all four of those foes.  Buffalo has now been outgained their last two games and they could struggle offensively here as starting QB Tyrod Taylor is out which means EJ Manuel will be the starter.  Manuel is 2-2 SU this season in his starts with 3 TD's and 3 INT's. Lifetime he's 9-10 as a starter, 4-6 on the road.  Kansas City is better in terms of yards per play offense and defense and they've won their last two games at home by 35 and 10 points respectively.  Kansas City is a wallet stuffing 8-3 ATS their last eleven home games and we expect them to win this home game by more than a TD.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +9 over Green Bay, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET - ASA's NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH

The Bears are playing their best football of the year right now and we wouldn’t be at all surprised if they pull this upset.  Chicago is 4-3 their last 7 games, however they are “this close” to being 7-0 as all three losses were down to the wire with losing margins of 2, 3, and 3 points.  Last week they took Denver to the wire in a 17-15 loss.  The Packers are getting too much credit here in our opinion.  Let’s not forget that before last week’s win @ Minnesota, the Pack lost 3 in a row including here at Lambeau to a 1-7 (at the time) Detroit team.  Now they are laying almost double digits to an improving Chicago team?  We don’t think so.  The Packers are not as good as their 7-3 record might indicate.  They were outgained last week @ Minnesota and have been out yarded in 5 of their last 6 games.  In fact, for the season Green Bay is -27 YPG and -0.3 YPP which aren’t the normal numbers for a team that has won 70% of their games so far this season.  Chicago has better overall YPG numbers on both sides of the ball as they are +12 YPG on the season.  These two met earlier in the year and Chicago outgained the Packers, had more first downs, and a better time of possession in a 31-23 loss.  After their rough start, the Bears have been competitive for 7 straight weeks and we see no reason that changes vs on over valued Packer team.   

PLAY ON: BILLS - Tonight we play on the Buffalo Bills plus the points over the host New England Patriots.  These two teams met earlier this year with the Pats winning in Buffalo by 8 points.  Even though the Patriots have had dominating results this year (+14.9 point differential is best in NFL) we can't ignore the points in this matchup.  Of the Patriots 9 wins this season 5 have been by 8-points or less and their 4 blowout wins have come against Jacksonville, Dallas (without Romo), Miami and Washington who have a combined record of 15-25 SU.  New England put up nearly 470 yards of passing offense in the first meeting but that was with RB Dion Lewis and WR Julian Edelman who are both out here with injuries.  Yes, Tom Brady will move on and still be great but he'll miss Edelman who was first on the Pats roster in targets at 88, 2nd in receiving yards and 2nd in TD receptions.   The Bill are finally healthy on offense after QB Taylor, RB's McCoy and Williams and WR Watkins all missed time with injuries and they put up 55 combined points the past two weeks.  Even though we feel Rex Ryan is over-rated as a head coach, he does know how to prepare for the Patriots.  Earlier this season when the Bills lost by 8 it was a 5-point game with just over a minute to play.  Including his time with the Jets, Rex Ryan and the Patriots games have been decided by 8 points or less in 6 of the last 7 meeting, 3-points or less in 5 of those.  Grab the points here in what shapes up to be a close game. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 48 points - Arizona @ Cincinnati, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET

Two top 5 offenses and perfect conditions lead to a very high scoring game in this one.  Arizona ranks 2nd in the NFL scoring 33 PPG and Cincy is 5th at 26 PPG.  Arizona leads the NFL in total offense & Cincinnati is 7th.  When it comes to offensive efficiency, these two rank 2nd (Bengals) & 3rd (Cards) in the entire NFL.  Both QB’s are performing at a high level as well as Palmer is ranked 2nd in QBR and Dalton is 4th.  These two teams have combined to play 18 games on the season and 12 of them have gone OVER the total.  Cincy is coming off by far their worst offensive performance of the year scoring just 6 points vs Houston.  We expect they’ll bounce back and play very well.  Arizona is off a big division game and put up 39 points on a staunch Seattle defense.  We expect they’ll continue to play well on that side of the ball.  This one goes OVER the number.

ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego +3 over KC, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

We like the Bolts getting points here.  KC is coming off a HUGE win @ Denver and now they head west again for the 2nd consecutive week.  San Diego is off a bye week where they were able to regroup and get ready for this one.  The Chargers are much better than their 2-7 record and should be very hungry off a bye.  San Diego is outgaining their opponents by 50 YPG.  They have outgained 7 of their 9 opponents this season.  Offensively the Chargers are 4th in the NFL in total offense (413 YPG), 6th in YPP (5.9), and QB Rivers is 8th in the NFL in QBR.  Those numbers do not add up to a team with just 2 wins at this point of the season.  Five of their seven losses have come by 8 points or less with four of those coming by 5 points or less.  They’ve been right there in nearly every game and we think coming off the bye week they get in the win column on Sunday.  This line has now been adjusted too far in our opinion as San Diego is a home dog for the first time this year while KC is a road favorite for the first time.  Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver -1 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Osweiler being inserted as the starting QB is actually a positive development in our opinion.  He can’t be any worse than Manning was.  Peyton’s QBR is 31st in the NFL and he has thrown 17 picks compared to just 9 TD’s.  We think Osweiler will give the Broncos a better chance on offense.  Defensively Denver is fantastic.  They are #1 in the NFL in YPG allowed and YPP allowed.  Not only that, they are coming off a “poor” performance allowing the Chiefs to score 29 points but still held KC to just barely over 300 total yards.  Expect a solid performance here from the Denver defense.  Chicago is now the flavor of the week after beating San Diego & St Louis on back to back weekends.  Chicago’s 4 wins have come against KC, Oakland, St. Louis, and San Diego, all teams that currently have losing records.  Three of those four wins came by 1, 2, and 3 points.  They really shouldn’t be laying points to the 7-2 Broncos in our opinion.  Denver has HUGE edges defensively allowing 4.3 YPP (to 5.8 for Chicago), 3.5 YPR (to 4.6 for Bears), and 5.3 yards per pass attempt (to 6.7 for Chicago).  Bears are just 5-17 ATS their last 22 home games and we’ll gladly take the points here.

PLAY ON: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

In breaking down this game we find the Jags rate slightly higher in terms of offensive efficiency rankings while the Titans are barely better than the Jaguars in defensive efficiency statistics.  But Jacksonville has been able to score points while Tennessee hasn't.  The Titans have scored 13 or less points in 5 of their last six games and the one game they did top 13-points it was against the Saints who don't stop anyone (defensive coach Ryan fired this week).  Last week the Titans managed just 242 total yards of offense and 11 first downs against the Panthers.  Jacksonville has put up 20+ points in 5 straight games with QB Bortles leading the way.  Bortles has 19 TD passes this year which is the 7th best number in the league.  The Jags are 5-2  ATS their last 7 games against a team with a sub .500 record while the Titans have just 2 spread wins in their last 16 games versus losing teams.  Jacksonville won't need to score many points to cover this spread as the Titans offense is really struggling to put up points.  Lay it.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 46 Points - Houston @ Cincinnati, Monday at 8:30 PM ET

Houston is the fastest paced offense in the NFL, even faster than Philly.  They average 74 plays per game (Eagles are 2nd at 70) and run a play every 23 seconds.  That also plays right into the Bengal’s offense as Cincy will run more plays as well.  Getting to run more plays means more points for Cincy.  The Bengals already average 28 PPG and they are the 2nd most efficient offense in the NFL.  Playing in a fast paced game vs a lower tier defense gives us a reason to project that the Bengals will top their season average tonight, probably getting into the 30’s.  Houston’s offense isn’t great but they do run a lot of plays (as we stated) and they have scored 20 or more points in 5 straight games.  The weather looks perfect tonight and If Houston can get to 20 again tonight, we think they will, this game should go OVER this posted total of 46.      

We like OVER in the Jacksonville @ Baltimore game (1PM ET kickoff).  We expect plenty of points in this one as the Jags games are averaging just under 56 total points scored their last three games while Baltimore is averaging 48PPG in that same time frame.  Jacksonville games have ended with 51 or more total points scored in 5 of their last six and include 3 games with 65+ points being scored.  Neither team gets stops on 3rd downs (Jags 29th, Ravens 32nd) which translates to more scoring opportunities for opponents.  Both teams also like to throw the football and we all know that more passing means more clock stops and higher scoring games.  Baltimore is 7th in the NFL in passing attempts per game while Jacksonville is 9th and both throw it on more that 63% of their offensive possessions.  The 'over' is 5-2 in Baltimores last 7 games overall and Jacksonville 'over' bettors have been rewarded with four straight cashes.  Expect a shootout here with 50+ points.

ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER 42 points - Buffalo @ NY Jets, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET

Both of these teams have been quite efficient on offense with Buffalo ranking 8th and the Jets 11th according to Football Outsiders.  The Bills average 26 PPG on the year and have scored 30+ in half their games this season (4).  The Jets average 25 PPG and have been held under 20 only one time this year.  Buffalo came into the season with the experts raving about their defense.  The fact is they’ve been a “middle of the pack” defense all season long allowing 353 YPG which is 16th in the NFL.  The Jets stop unit has really fallen off their early pace which had them as the 2nd best defense in the NFL behind Denver.  In their last 4 games New York has allowed 20, 30, 34, and 23 points.  Tyrod Taylor came back from injury for Buffalo last week and led the Bills to 33 points vs Miami.  He also has most of his weapons back on offense as RB LeSean McCoy and WR Sammy Watkins have returned.  The Jets QB Fitzpatrick was injured vs Oakland two weeks ago but he was back under center last week throwing for 272 yards and leading the Jets to 28 points.  Over the last 20 meetings, these two AFC East rivals have cashed the OVER 70% of the time (14 overs, 6 unders).  Eight of the last 10 meetings between these two have reached at least 41 points and this number is set a just 42 or 42.5.  Take the OVER.