ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis +2 over Tennessee, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - We like this spot for the Colts coming off a loss with Tennessee coming off a win. We also like the fact that Indy outplayed the Ravens last week on the stat sheet while the Titans actually were outplayed by the Bears. Indy went from a 4-point dog at last week’s open vs Baltimore to a 1-point favorite near game time. They outgained the Ravens by a full +1.0 YPP in the game but had 2 turnovers which led directly to 14 of Baltimore’s 24 points. The biggest play of the game came late in the first quarter with Indianapolis already up 7-0 moving inside Baltimore’s 40 yard line looking to go up 2 scores. The Colts fumbled and it was returned 65 yards for the Ravens first TD to tie the game at 7-7. A potential 14-point turnaround on that play alone. Tennessee was favored by 6.5 at home vs Chicago and picked up a 24-17 win. The Bears outgained Tennessee by +1.0 YPP in the game despite the loss. The Tennessee defense, which ranks 25th in total defense allowed the below average Bears to roll up 375 yards. That’s a Chicago offense that had topped 280 yards only once in their previous 5 games. And the Titans weren’t playing particularly well entering the game having lost to the Steelers & Bengals in their previous 2 games. Tennessee could be sitting on a 3 game losing streak but got a little lucky last week. The Colts are 3-1 on the road this year and they own the #1 ranked total defense in the NFL. So we have a motivated team, getting points, with the much better defense. The Colts have also owned this AFC South series covering 13 of the last 17 meetings. Indy is the play on Thursday night.

#473/474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51 Points – New Orleans @ Tampa Bay, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - These two met earlier this year and the total was set at 48.5 points. That final score was Bucs 43, Saints 34 so it went way over the total. Thus, this total is set nearly a full FG higher. The first final score between these 2 was quite misleading. Tampa had 310 total yards and New Orleans had only 271 and neither averaged 5.0 YPP. There were 9 scoring possessions in that game and 4 of them came on drives of less than 45 yards and TB scored on a pick 6. Last Sunday was the first top 10 defense the Saints have faced since their season opener vs TB and they scored just 23 points (in regulation) vs Chicago. The Bucs have also faced just 1 top 10 defense since playing the Saints and they scored just 19 points in that game. Both of these teams rank in the top 10 in efficiency defense (Football Outsiders) and total defense. The Tampa defense ranks #1 in the NFL in efficiency (Football Outsiders) and they’ve held 6 of their 8 opponents to 23 points or less. The Saints defense is ranked 8th in the NFL in efficiency and they’ve held 5 of their 8 opponents to 27 points or less. New Orleans has gone over the total in 7 straight games which has helped push this total higher than it should be in our opinion. It’s projected to be rainy and windy on Sunday evening in Tampa which will help limit scoring opportunities. 9 of the last 12 meeting between these 2 NFC South rival @ Tampa have gone under the total. With Tampa favored by -4.5 here the projected final is TB 28 and NO 23. We think both teams land under those numbers. We like the UNDER on Sunday Night.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Over 49.5 Points – Green Bay @ San Francisco, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Green Bay will be without their top 3 RB’s for this game so we expect Aaron Rodgers to throw the ball a lot in this one. The Packers rank 3rd in the NFL in scoring and they’ve been held under 30 just twice all season. Last week vs Minnesota they only put up 22 points, however they put up 400 yards in that game but simply blew a number of chances. Their seasonal yards per point average is 12.6 which ranks them 6th in the NFL. If that is used to figure out what GB would normally score when gaining 400 yards it comes to 31 points. SF’s defense has solid overall numbers but they’ve faced 5 opponents ranked 24th or lower in scoring. The 3 solid offenses they’ve faced Miami, Seattle, & Arizona (all ranked in the top 11 in scoring) the SF defense allowed an average of 29 PPG. Green Bay will score here. San Francisco is without QB Garoppolo but we don’t feel back up Nick Mullens is a big downgrade. He came in last week and threw for 273 yards and led the Niners on TD drives on their final 3 offensive possessions. He’s already started 2 games this year and is completing over 70% of his passes so we think they’ll be fine. The San Fran running game, top 10 in both YPG & YPC, will keep them balanced and should have a nice day vs a GB defense that was ripped for 173 yards on the ground last week vs Minnesota. With this total set at 49.5, it’s actually a few points lower than the average scoring numbers in the NFL this year which is 51 PPG. The weather looks perfect on Thursday night and we like the OVER here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON NY Giants +13 over Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - We feel the Giants are in a great situational spot here with 10 days to rest & prepare off their Thursday night game. Tampa made the long trip to Las Vegas last Sunday and they are on the road again this week. Great value as well on the home team here as this spread opened Bucs -8.5 or -9, which is where we have it power rated, and it’s been pushed all the way to -13 as Tampa is now officially a public team. This number is more than double Tampa’s highest road number this year – they were favored by 6 @ Denver, at team we have rated very closely to the Giants. While NY has a poor overall record, they’ve been competitive for the most part. All but 1 of their games has been decided by 10 points or less with 4 of those games being decided by 4 points or less. The Giants have been able to hang in most of their games due to a solid yet underrated defense. They rank in the top 13 in the NFL in both YPG allowed and YPP allowed. They’ve given up 26 points or less in 5 of their games and when your getting nearly 2 TD’s that significant. Offensively they’ve started to come around after not topping 16 in any of their first 4 games the Giants have put up 34, 20, and 21 points their last 3. Tampa has a HUGE game with AFC South rival New Orleans next Sunday and we expect the Giants to give them a good run in this one. Take the points.

#268 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Chicago +4.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not huge proponents of Chicago this year as their offense has struggled, but this line in flat out wrong in our opinion.  The Bears are getting almost a TD (5 points as of this writing) vs a team we feel is drastically overvalued.  For comparison’s sake, the Saints were favored by 3 @ Detroit and by 4 @ Las Vegas in their 2 road games this year.  They lost by 10 @ Vegas and had to hold on late to beat the Lions 35-29.  Now they are laying more than that to a Bears team that is 5-2?  The Saints simply aren’t that great this year.  They have 4 wins and 3 of those have come by 6 points or less.  Last week they held on at home to beat the Panthers 27-24 but Carolina outgained them on a YPP basis.  New Orleans ran 24 more offensive plays in that game and were only able to win by 3 game home vs Carolina.  The same Panther team the Bears beat on the road by 7 a week earlier.  Prior to their Carolina win, the Saints had to come from 17 points down at home to nip the Chargers in OT.  Bears might be without WR Robinson in this game (questionable) however New Orleans will be without their top 3 WR’s here as Thomas, Sanders, and Callaway have all been ruled out.  The Saints haven’t been on the road since October 4th and they have played a single game outdoors this season.  New Orleans is an indoor, fast track team.  On Sunday they are going to get 25 MPH winds and temps in the 30’s (windchill in the 20’s) at Soldier Field facing one of the top defenses in the NFL.  We get it, Chicago looked bad on Monday night and their offense has struggled.  However, this is simply too much value on the home team to pass up in this spot.  Chicago bounces back after a poor performance, their offense looks better, and their defense continues their stellar play on Sunday.  This one goes to the wire and we grab the points with Chicago.

#276/276 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Over 44 Points – LA Chargers @ Denver, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Denver only scored 16 points last week at home vs KC but they put up 411 total yards.  Their offense actually pushed into KC territory on 7 of their offensive possessions.  They were only able to come up with 1 TD in the game but had multiple chances to put more than 16 points on the board.  Same situation a week earlier @ New England.  The Broncos settled for SIX field goals in that game in an 18-12 win.  Again they had lots of chances to put numbers on the board in that game as well.  The point is, this offense is playing much better than what their final scores might indicate.  We think the Denver offense breaks out this week vs a Chargers defense that has allowed 38, 30, and 29 points their last 3 games.  Most concerning was last week as they allowed 29 points to a Jacksonville team that had scored 30 points total their previous 2 games vs Houston & Detroit, two below average defenses.  The Charger offense has been on a tear under rookie QB Herbert.  They have scored 31, 27, and 39 points their last 3 games including the first two scores vs Tampa & New Orleans who both rank in the top 7 in the NFL in total defense.  Herbert has thrown for over 250 yards in every start this season and the Chargers are #1 in the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate.  The Broncos defense is highly ranked but against the good offenses they’ve faced the scoring has been high.  KC scored 43 last week in a snowstorm, Pittsburgh scored 26, and the Bucs put up 28.  Even the Jets, the lowest scoring team in the NFL, had 28 points vs the Broncos so we have no doubt the Chargers will score here.  Last week we had a snow storm in Denver, this Sunday calls for temps in the mid 60’s and light winds.  Perfect weather.  This total is currently sitting at 44.5 which is a low total for today’s NFL which averages right around 51 PPG.  Take the OVER in Denver on Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -6 over the Chicago Bears, Monday 8:25 PM ET - Let’s compare how these two teams currently sit in their scheduling situation. The 5-1 Bears are off a misleading win in Carolina, while the 4-2 Rams are off a Divisional loss to the 49ers. Chicago didn’t play great in Carolina with QB Nick Foles throwing for under 200 yards and the offense gaining less than 260 on the day. The Bears were outgained in the game 4.9 yards per play to 4.1YPPL but Carolina had 3 turnovers. Chicago’s offense has been brutal this year ranking 28th in yards per play offense and 27th in scoring. Against the good defenses they’ve faced (Indy, TBay and Carolina) they have averaged less than 270-total yards of offense. The Bears will face a great Rams defense tonight that is 4th in yards per game allowed and 5th in scoring D allowing just 19PPG. Los Angeles lost in San Francisco last week which doesn’t look as bad as it was now that the 49ers are getting healthy and destroyed New England on the road yesterday. The Rams are 11-4 SU their last fifteen when coming off a loss and they’ve won those games by an average of 7.6PPG which clearly gets us a cover here. Yes, these defenses are near even but the Rams have the 10th best offense in yards gained per game and have won 39 of their last 58 at home since 2017. Their average margin of victory in those games is +6PPG. Bears QB Nick Foles is best when he’s comfortable in the pocket and not pressured but that won’t be the case tonight against this Rams defense led by DE Aaron Donald. As long as this line is under a TD we will side with the Rams.

#467 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Seattle -3 over Arizona, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Arizona looks like they are rolling going 2-1 on their 3 game road trip. Not so fast. Their wins on that road trip were the winless Jets and struggling Cowboys (without Prescott at QB). Minus their win over San Francisco in the season opener where they were outgained 6.0 to 5.2 YPP, Arizona’s win shave come against teams with a combined record of 3-15 with Washington being their other win besides the two mentioned above. While the Cards on a short week after winning @ Dallas on Monday, they get to face a rested 5-0 (4-1 ATS) Seattle team coming off a bye week. This will be Seattle’s 3rd road game of the season and their first 2 were 8 & 27 point wins. That puts Seattle at 2-0 ATS on the road this year and 13-3-2 ATS their last 18 games away from home. QB Russell Wilson is 72-54-7 ATS in his career in the regular season. Road team 9-1-1 ATS last 11 meetings. Seattle has owned the Cards on the road where they are 6-0-1 SU (5-1-1 ATS) their last 7 trips here including a 27-10 here last season. The Seahawks average margin of victory over that 7 game span was +14 points. We’ll take the better team in the better situation here. Lay it with Seattle.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia -4.5 over NY Giants, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - Watching the Eagles their last 2 games, it looks to us like Philly is starting to round into form despite their 1-4-1 record. The last 2 Sundays they’ve stood toe to toe with 2 of the best teams in the NFL, Pittsburgh & Baltimore. They outgained the Steelers on a yards per play basis and trailed by just 2 points with under 3:00 minutes remaining (lost 38-29). Last week they came from behind and had a chance to tie Baltimore with under 2:00 minutes remaining but the Eagles 2-point conversion was not successful and they lost 30-28. They also outgained the Ravens on a YPP basis in that game. This offense has turned the corner scoring 28 & 29 points vs 2 of the top defenses in the NFL the last 2 weeks. The defense already ranks in the top 10 in YPP allowed and we have a feeling this team is close to turning the corner. The Giants won last week vs Washington to pick up their first win of the season, but they didn’t look great doing it. Washington actually had nearly 100 more total yards, more first downs, and a time of possession edge in the game. NY’s offense has been flat out bad all season, with the exception of their game @ Dallas and we all know how bad the Cowboy defense is right now. If you throw that game out the window, the Giants have scored a grand total of 7 TD’s in their other 5 games. That’s it. The defense is very solid but when you have an offense that only scores 13 PPG (again, minus the Cowboy game) that puts a lot of pressure on the defense. With the way Philly has put points on the board the last few weeks, we think they’ll have success here. We can’t say the same for the NYG offense. Philly was laying almost double digits here vs New York last year (-9.5) and now were getting them at just -4.5. Lay it was we expect the Eagles to win by at least a TD.

#276 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas +1.5 over Arizona, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - This is an overreaction to the Dak Prescott injury along with the Cowboy struggles to date. The Cardinals should not be favored in this match up. First of all, it Arizona’s 3rd straight road game so a tough spot for them. The were smoked at Carolina two weeks ago and then beat the terrible Jets in New York last week. They’ve also lost to the Lions this year which gave Detroit their only win of the season. This is not a team that should be laying points on the road unless they are playing the Jets. Dallas lost Prescott in the 2nd half last week and veteran Andy Dalton, possibly the best back up on the league, came in and led the Cowboys to 13 points in his 5 possessions as they rallied to top the Giants. Dalton is simply not a huge drop off from Prescott. They guy has almost 32,000 passing yards and over 200 TD’s in his career. He is not a full 4 points drop off from Dak as this line was Dallas -3 leading into last week and now they are underdogs. We anticipate the Cowboys rally behind Dalton and play well in their first full game without Dak at QB. Two of Arizona’s wins came over Washington and the Jets who are 1-9 combined. Their other win was in the season opener over the Niners in a game that looked like a great win but in hindsight with San Fran’s struggles it wasn’t look all that impressive. The Boys have just a 2-3 record but their 3 losses have come at the hands of Seattle, LA Rams, and Cleveland who have a combined 13-2 record. Cowboys may get some key players back defensively including their starting MLB Vander Esch. Offensively they rank #1 in the NFL in YPG and 3rd in YPP and we expect them to continue to roll with Dalton at QB. We’ll take advantage of this bad line and take Dallas at home.

#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Over 51 Points – Cleveland @ Pittsburgh, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Pittsburgh’s overall defensive numbers this year are very good, however they’ve played a VERY easy schedule of offenses thus far.  In 3 of their 4 games they’ve faced the Giants, Eagles, and Broncos who currently rank 29th, 28th, and 27th in offensive efficiency (YPP offense).  Two of those three actually scored more points vs the Steelers than their season average and the other, the Giants, hit their average PPG right on the head.  Last week Pittsburgh faced an Eagle offense that was averaging an NFL worst 4.5 yards per play entering the game.  Philly eclipsed that average by nearly a yard and a half last week putting up 5.9 YPP vs Pittsburgh.  The Eagles came into the game averaging 21 PPG and put up 29 last Sunday.  Now they face a Cleveland offense that is rolling scoring 30+ points in 4 straight games.  If you throw out their clunker in week 1 @ Baltimore, the Browns are averaging 37.5 PPG over their last 4.  That includes a 32 point output last week vs the Colts who entered the game as the #1 overall defense in the NFL.  The problem with Cleveland isn’t their offense, it’s their defense.  They’ve allowed 30 or more in 3 of their 5 games and haven’t allowed less than 20 in any game this season.  Pittsburgh’s offense scored 38 points last week on a solid Philly defense (#6 in YPP defense) and they’ve scored at least 26 in every game this year.  The weather looks great here with light winds and no precipitation and we expect an AFC North shootout.  Take the OVER.

#477 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON LA Chargers +8 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re still not sold on this Saints team being one of the best in the NFL.  Especially with their current injury concerns at WR, DB, and on the offensive line.  Their wins have come against Tampa, where they were outgained but benefitted from 3 Buc turnovers including a pick 6, and Detroit.  Their game last week @ Detroit they fell down 14-0, came back to take a lead and barely held on 35-29.  Offensively the Saints were only able to put up 5.7 YPP last week vs a Detroit defense that has allowed 6.2 YPP this season.  We think, because they have a 1-3 record, the Chargers are a bit undervalued right now.  They’ve lost 3 straight games that have gone to the wire.  They played KC as tough as anyone over the last year as they led the entire game but lost in OT.  Last week they led Tampa on the road 24-7 but Brady pulled his comeback magic and rallied the Bucs for a win.  Starting QB Herbert has been very impressive to date with a completion rate of 72% while averaging over 300 YPG passing.  The Bolts have held leads in the 4th quarter in 3 of their 4 games this year and their defense has been solid holding 3 of their 4 opponents to 23 points or less including limiting KC to 20 points in regulation.  This is a tough team to pull away from and we expect a tight game.  The Chargers are a money making 12-4-3 ATS their last 19 non-division road games under head coach Anthony Lynn.  The Saints have covered just 4 of their last 14 games as a home favorite.  Undervalued vs Overvalued here.  Take the points. 

#469/470 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Over 51 Points – Miami @ San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - San Francisco is getting Garoppolo back at QB here which will help this offense immensely.  He’s a big upgrade over Mullens & Beathard.  Top TE Kittle came back last week and their starting RB Mostert looks like he may be back as well for this one.  San Fran’s offense has actually been playing well with some of their top playmakers on the shelf.  Last week they scored just 20 points vs Philly but had over 400 yards of offense on 6.0 YPP.  However they committed 3 turnovers including an interception at the Eagle 14 yard line as they were heading in to potentially score.  Prior to last week the Niners scored 31 vs the Jets and 36 vs a very good NY Giants defense that ranks in the top 10 in a number of key defensive categories.  We see San Francisco moving the ball at will this week vs a Miami defense that ranks last in the NFL allowing 6.6 YPP.  The Fins offense has actually come around nicely after their season opener @ New England where they scored only 11 points.  Since that game they have scored 28, 31, and 23 points.  Last week’s 23 they put up on Seattle was very deceiving as Miami settled for FIVE field goals in that game despite rolling up over 400 yards on 6.1 YPP.  We hope that head coach Brian Flores learns from that mistake as in today’s game, it’s very hard to win settling for that many FG’s.  High scoring games are now the norm (league average is 51.5 PPG) and they’ll need to score with San Fran to keep up here.  We think they will.  The Niner defense is a bit overrated right now as they’ve faced the Jets, Giants, and Eagles in their last 3 games.  Those 3 offense rank 30th, 31st, and 32nd this year in yards per play!  With the 49ers favored by 8 and the total set around 50, the final score expected is 29-21.  We like both team to eclipse their expected totals in this game.  The weather looks great in SF for the game and we like the OVER here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Under 45 Points, Tampa Bay @ Chicago, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - This is a low total by today’s standards but we still like the UNDER in this game. This number opened 45 and has dropped to 44.5 which is also telling as most of the totals this year are moving up from the opener and now down. We have 2 of the top defenses in the NFL here with Tampa ranking 2nd in Football Outsiders defensively with Chicago coming in at 7th. On a yards per play basis, these 2 defense also both rank in the top 7 in the NFL. The Bears offense was putrid last week vs Indy scoring just 11 points and they had only 3 points under 2:00 minutes remaining in the game. They tallied only 269 total yards and 90 of those came on their final drive while the Colts were in prevent defense mode. It wasn’t a complete surprise as Indy’s defense ranks #1 in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA but let’s not forget Tampa ranks 2nd so not a huge difference. Chicago has scored 85 points on the season and nearly half of those points (42) came in the 4th quarter of their games vs the Lions & Falcons when they had to make big comebacks vs teams with terrible defenses. Tampa is coming off a big offensive output last week as they had to come from 24-7 down at home vs Chargers to get the 38-31 win. Their defense played poorly allowing 6.5 YPP which is well above their average of 5.1 YPP allowed. Expect a much better effort tonight. Overall offensively TB is a middle of the pack team averaging 5.7 YPP which ranks them 18th in that category. We don’t foresee Brady having a huge night (5 TD passes last week) vs a Chicago defense that ranks 6th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed. The Bucs offense is also banged up with WR Godwin, RB Fournette, RB McCoy, and TE Howard all out tonight. Their top WR Evans is also dealing with an ankle injury. Take the UNDER in this one.

ASA top play 10* on: Atlanta Falcons +7 over Green Bay Packers, Monday 8:50PM ET We understand you are going to have a hard time betting against the 3-0 Packers and betting on 0-3 Atlanta but that’s why they make pointspreads. The Packers have played nearly flawless offense in their start to the season which cannot last forever based on the Law of Averages. Atlanta has blown two 15+ point leads in their last two games (in the 4th quarter) and lost both games to fall to 0-3. Are the Packers and Falcons as good/bad as their records? No, we do not think so. If we turned back the clock and it was week 1 this line might be Packers favored by 4-points at best, so value clearly lies with Atlanta. The Packers were 7-point favorites at home against the Lions who are not as good as this Falcons team. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense has been incredible, but the Falcons O is not far behind. The Packers average 460YPG, Atlanta 419YPG, Green Bay 40.7PP and Atlanta 30PPG. Atlanta has allowed 36PPG (most coming late in games) which is 31st in the NFL but the Packers are not much better allowing 28.3PPG and 6.6 yards per play which is 31st in the league. Atlanta has veteran-laden team with a particularly good road record and 5 straight covers away from home. The Falcons are 8-9 ATS their last seventeen as a dog but their loss margin is just minus -3.4PPG. Conversely, the Packers are 13-10 their last twenty-three as a favorite with a win margin of +4.6PPG. Those two differentials are obviously enough for an Atlanta Falcons cover. Grab the points.

#260 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas -4.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This is a huge game for the Cowboys.  They cannot afford to drop to 1-3.  They’ve faced a fairly tough slate having to go on the road to LA Rams and Seattle while facing Atlanta at home whose much better than their 0-3 record.  Last week they led Seattle on the road 31-30 with under 2:00 remaining when Russell Wilson pulled more of his magic to pick up a win.  Dallas outgained Seattle by over 100 yards in that game and averaged 6.5 YPP in the process.  A week prior they outgained the potent Atlanta offense by nearly 200 yards despite having to come from behind to win that one.  The Boys have a +0.8 YPP differential which is not indicative of a team that currently has a losing record.  Meanwhile Cleveland is off 2 home wins and could step into this one a bit fat and happy as we like to say.  However, those wins came at the hands of 2 of the worst teams in the NFL, Cincinnati and Washington and neither were all that easy.  They held on to beat Cincinnati 35-30 and last week vs Washington they Browns trailed entering the 4th quarter before scoring 3 straight TD’s to pull away.  Cleveland is now 0-7 both SU & ATS their last 7 road games losing by an average of 18 PPG.  Going back even further, since November of 2014 the Browns are just 5-39 SU on the road and 17-27 ATS in those games.  This is a much bigger game for Dallas and we’ll lay the points.

ASA top play 10* on: Over 40.5 Denver Broncos at New York Jets, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - These are two bad offenses as they rank in the bottom three in the league along with the Giants in most statistical categories. Both average less than 5.0 yards per play and less than 16PPG. So how can we bet Over here? For several good reasons starting with who each team has played and how it’s impacted their offensive numbers. The Jets have faced the Colts who are 1st in defensive efficiency this season, the 49ers who are 5th and the Bills who were 7th a year ago. The Broncos are in a similar boat as they have faced Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh who currently rank 2nd and 3rd in DEFF and the Titans who are league average. It’s no wonder these two teams have struggled offensively to start the season. Both will face defenses that are slightly above average and slightly below and should have a much easier time scoring in this Thursday night affair. Both teams do not waste a lot of time running their offense as they rank 10th and 11th in pace of play averaging less than 25.83 second to run a play. NFL teams are averaging 51 PPG combined this year. Overs are 30-18 on the season and through 3 weeks last season averages scores in the NFL were 44.5, so up almost a full TD per game. The other big key here is the actual number posted by Vegas. Average Totals set in 2020 / week 1 =45.5 / week 2 = 46 / week 3 = 48 / week 4 = 50. With this number being as low as it is we have to bet OVER here.

#485 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas +5 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’ve seen some solid line value with these week 3 games and this one is no exception.  Our power rating have Dallas as a 3-point dog here so we’re getting at least a few extra points.  The look ahead line on this game was Seattle -3 and -3.5 last week.  Everyone watched Seattle beat New England on Sunday Night (barely) while Dallas was struggling at home vs Atlanta and came out with a miraculous win.  That’s why 70% of the tickets have come in on Seattle here.  The Seahawks are 2-0 but were outgained in both games including getting outyarded 506 to 383 in their season opening win @ Atlanta.  The Falcons made a number of mistakes to allow Seattle to win that game and Russell Wilson was almost perfect with just 4 incomplete passes.  Last week they held New England just short of the goal line as time expired to pick up a 35-30 win.  Now Seattle is a bit overvalued.  Dallas has played 2 down to the wire games losing @ LA Rams by 3 and winning last week by 1.  We expect another very close game here and getting the Cowboys above +4 is great value.  The Boys still have one of the top offenses in the NFL with weapons all over the field.  After leading the NFL in YPP last year, they are currently 5th this season at 6.3 YPP.  They will be able to move the ball and put points on the board here vs a Seattle defense that has allowed 6.7 YPP in their first 2 games, 3rd worst in the league.  Despite their 1-point cover last week in a game they nearly lost, the Seahawks have not been a great home favorite as of late.  Last season they were just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite losing 3 of those games outright.  Dallas wea favored in their first 2 games but has been a very successful 7-2 ATS as a dog dating back to October of 2018.  This one should be close so we grab the points.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER 49 Points – New Orleans @ Las Vegas, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Many will simply look at the final scores from last week, see that the Saints put up 34 points, and just assume their offense rolled up big numbers. That’s not the case at all. In fact, their offense simply wasn’t very good in that win over Tampa. They tallied just 271 total yards and barely averaged 4.0 YPP. QB Brees looked old (he is) and struggled to throw for only 160 yards. He will now most likely be without his top target by far, WR Thomas who was injured last week. Two of New Orleans TD’s came on a pick 6 thrown by TB QB Brady and a short field after another Brady interception. The Saints defense, o the other hand, looked very solid vs what should be one of the best offenses in the NFL (Tampa). They made Brady look simply not very good and held the Bucs to just 4.8 YPP. Not a surprise as we had their defense rated very highly coming into this season after holding 6 of their final 9 opponents last year to 20 points or less in regulation. The Raiders put up 34 points last week but that was facing a Carolina defense we have pegged for near the bottom of the league. That final score was 34-30 and the 2 teams put up those numbers on 760 total yards. That means they were scoring 1 point for every 11.8 yards gained. In the Bucs – Saints game, they put up 57 points on just 581 total yards or 10.2 yards per point. Both of those games had extremely efficient numbers offensively which also has luck involved. To give you an idea, last season SF led the league at 1 point scored for every 12.9 yards gained which was worse than BOTH games we are discussing here. Both teams involved in Monday’s game scored over 30 points last week which gives us some solid value on the UNDER in this game.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON NY Giants +5.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Giants actually looked OK on Monday night. Their offense didn’t do much (lost 26-16) but that was expected vs a Pittsburgh team that just might have the best defense in the NFL. We had the UNDER in that game and cashed but here we like the Giants to play Chicago tight and possibly pull the upset. QB Jones played fairly well against a great defense minus his 2 interceptions (279 yards & 2 TDs). They had no running game but that should improve here vs a Chicago defense that allowed Detroit to run for 138 yards last week. RB Barkley will have a much easier time this week after his 15 carry, 6 yard performance last week. The Bears came from 23-6 down in the 4th quarter @ Detroit last week so they pulled off a huge division comeback win. The Chicago offense looked shaky at best with Trubisky at the helm for much of the game. He did lead them to the 4th quarter comeback but we cannot trust him as a significant favorite. The Giants defense actually impressed us last week holding what should be a very solid Pitt offense (with Roethlisberger back) to 349 yards on 5.5 YPP. They should improve on that this week vs a pedestrian Chicago offense. When these two met here in Chicago last year, the Bears escaped with a 19-14 win after trailing at halftime. We expect the Giants to be improved this year while Chicago we’re not so sure. The Bears have covered only ONCE in their last 7 games as a favorite (can’t trust Trubisky in this role) and NY is 10-2 their last 12 as a road dog. Giants have a decent shot at the outright win here so we’ll grab the points.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER 43 – Cincinnati @ Cleveland, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET We like the value here as this total opened 46 and we’re now seeing 43. Our advice would be to play this NOW as we expect the total to head back up on Thursday. Look for the Cleveland offense and new HC Stefanski (former Minnesota OC) to come out with a chip on their shoulder on Thursday night after being held to 6 points last week @ Baltimore. They go from facing a top 5 defense to a middle of the pack at best defense which will help the offense. Cleveland’s defense last week allowed nearly 7.0 YPP to the Ravens and while we don’t expect that from the Bengals, they should have success moving the ball with Joe Burrow now at QB (193 yards passing & 46 yards rushing last week). The Chargers offense, with new QB Tyrod Taylor, actually moved the ball pretty well on the Bengals after the first few series. They were held on downs twice inside Cincy territory and missed a FG so their 16 points was a bit deceiving. The Chargers only punted twice after their first 3 series so they had chances to score points but didn’t. This has been a fairly high scoring series as of late with the last 5 meetings getting to at least 44 points. The average point total in the last 5 meetings is 49 PPG. In last year’s 2 meetings the offenses combined to average 6.0 yards per play while scoring 56 & 46 points. Now that this one is down to 43, we like the OVER.

ASA top play 10* on UNDER 46 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. NY Giants, Monday 7PM ET

The Steelers welcome the return of QB Ben Roethlisberger and hope he can spark an offense that averaged 26.8PPG in 2018, then dropped to 27th in the league in scoring last season at 18.1PPG. Big Ben is a 15 year NFL vet and obviously knows this offense inside and out but he’s coming into this game with a short prep time and a surgery-repaired right elbow. Just how effective and crisp will he be with his young receivers? Not to mention, it’s highly unlikely Coach Tomlin is going to jeopardize the season by having him throw it a ton in the opener, especially with two new starters on the right-half of the starting O-line. We expect the Steelers to have a conservative game plan and a heavy dose of the running game with James Conner, who is coming off a down season after missing several games and facing defenses stacked to stop the run. Don’t expect the Steelers to just score a ton of points against this Giants defense that wasn’t quite as bad as some statistics show from 2019. New York was 26th in yards allowed per game but did hold opposing rushers to under 4.0 yards per rush which was 4th best in the NFL. The Giants have a new system in place with new head coach Joe Judge who comes from the Patriots organization along with a new offensive coordinator in Jason Garrett from Dallas. Garrett will lean on running back Saquon Barkley as he did Elliott in Dallas. Under Garrett the Cowboys ranked top 10 in rushing attempts per game the past four seasons. But can Barkley have success against this Steelers ferocious defense that allowed just one 100-yards rusher last season. We are not sure we want to be Daniel Jones the second year QB for the Giants who will see plenty of pressure up front. The Steelers defensive front should have itself a field day versus the Giants O-line which starts rookie tackle Andrew Thomas and first-year Giant Cam Fleming. New York also has a new center, Nick Gates, who started in three games last season at guard. Both teams were near average in yards per point offense and below average in scoring. The Steelers were one of the slower paced teams in the league last season and the new regime in New York has emphasized a ball control approach in camp. Our math model projects just 41 total points being scored here and we couldn’t agree more.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON LA Rams +2.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET LA was in the Super Bowl 2 years ago and dropped back to 9-7 last year. A regression was expected so that wasn’t a big surprise. This is still a very well coached, solid team that we like as a dog here at home in their first game at the brand new SoFi Stadium. They actually may catch a break with no fans in the stadium as Cowboys fans travel as well as any and this very well could have been a home game like atmosphere for Dallas. The Cowboys are expected to be one of the top teams in the NFC but aren’t they always? The fact is, Dallas is almost always overvalued entering the season and we feel they are here laying a full FG on the road vs a playoff caliber team in the Rams. Dallas beat the have nots last year but they were just 1-6 SU vs teams that made the playoffs. One of the few decent teams they did beat last year was this Rams squad. IT was an embarrassing 44-21 loss for LA at Dallas and we expect they will have a chip on their shoulder here after that setback. The Rams were favored in that game @ Dallas and now they are getting a full FG at home just one year later. In week 1, games that have a total of 50 or higher (this one does) the underdog is 13-2 ATS. This system did lose on Thursday night with KC covering but we don’t see that happening here. The majority of wagers have come in on Dallas (60%) which is not a surprise at all, yet only 35% of the money is on the Boys. We like this situation and we’ll take the Rams +3.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Under 54.5 Points – Houston vs Kansas City, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET We think there is definitely some value on this UNDER. It currently sits at 55 points and when these two met in last year’s playoffs, the total was 50.5. We’re sure the reason the oddmakers had to set this number so much higher than last year’s total was the fact the playoff game was such a high scoring final with the Chiefs winning 51-31. This is absolutely a different situation this year. We expect the offenses to be a bit behind to start the season with a shortened training camp and no pre-season games to get in sync offensively. In their playoff match up both teams were overly efficient offensively scoring 1 point every 10 yards gained. To put that in perspective, the team that led the NFL in yards per point efficiency was San Francisco at 12.6. The average YPPT number last year in the NFL was around 15.5. If that number was applied to the total yardage in that game last year (876 yards) they would have scored 56 total points, not 81. These 2 also met in October of last season with Houston winning 31-24. The Texans ran the ball 41 times in that game attempting to keep the ball away from the KC offense. It worked in the regular season meeting and we expect a heavy dose of new RB David Johnson here vs a defense that ranked 29th last year YPC allowed. Trying to get in a shootout with KC doesn’t work. Houston found that out in the playoffs. To put this number in the season opener in perspective, Houston didn’t have a SINGLE total set this high all of last season. Kansas City had ONE total set higher than this one and that was 55.5 vs Indy in what turned out to be a 19-13 game. If we project this total onto last year’s results for both teams, in other words if every total last year was 55 for each team’s games, we would have seen 24 Unders, 10 Overs, and 3 Ties. The UNDER in KC home games in which they are favored by more than a TD is an impressive 21-4! Simply too many points in a season opener with a less than ideal situation leading up to this game. Take the UNDER.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON San Francisco +1.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET

We had this game power rated at dead even on a neutral field so we’re getting some line value with San Fran in our opinion.  The Niners finished with the better record (15-3 while KC was 14-4) despite facing the tougher schedule.  The NFC West with the Rams & Seahawks (playoff team and playoff caliber team) was much tougher than the AFC West who had every team finish under .500 except the Chiefs.  Down the stretch the 49ers faced a brutal schedule which included Green Bay (twice), LA Rams, Baltimore, New Orleans, Seattle (twice), and Minnesota all in their last 10 games (including playoffs).  The only 2 non playoff caliber teams they played over their last 10 games were Arizona and Atlanta (who was actually playing very well at the end of the season).  KC, on the other hand, faced off against the Chargers (twice), Denver, Oakland, Chicago, and New England over their final 6 regular season games – only one playoff caliber team.  Despite the tougher schedule San Francisco had the better stats - +11 ppg, +96 ypg and +1.3 ypp this season while the Chiefs were +10 ppg, +32 ypg and +0.9 ypp.  San Francisco had a point differential of +169 while KC was +143.  Kansas City took on 8 playoff teams this year going 5-3 SU & ATS and outgaining those playoff opponents by an average of 31.0 yards per game.  San Francisco went 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS against their playoff opponents outgaining those teams by an average of 37.4 yards per game.  Slight edge to Frisco.  We think SF has an edge at many of the positions with QB being one of the few exceptions.  Although it’s not as big of a gap there as some may expect.  Let’s not forget that Niner QB Garoppolo is an amazing 23-5 SU as an NFL starter!  The experts at Pro Football Focus recently ranked the players in the Super Bowl and 18 of the top 26 were 49ers.  We agree with that.  They have a huge edge defensively (2nd in total defense compared to 17th for Chiefs) which has been a successful formula in the past with 44 of the 53 Super Bowl winners entered the game with the higher ranked defense.  They also have a much better ground game (2nd rated compared to 22nd for KC) so we will say with solid confidence that SF will outrush KC here facing a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th allowing 124 YPG on the ground.  If that’s the case, teams that have the higher rushing total in the Super Bowl are 40-12 SU in the Super Bowl.  We think SF will control the ground game, eating clock and keeping KC’s dangerous offense on the sidelines.  We like the better defense and better running game getting points on Sunday.  Take San Francisco.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas City -7 over Tennessee, Sunday at 3 PM ET

The Titans are obviously on a great roll winning back to back road playoff games as an underdog.  However, now they are in a very tough situation playing their 4th consecutive road game vs a team that is even hotter than they are as the Chiefs have won and covered 7 straight games.  It’s very rare to see a team playing their 4th straight road game spanning into the playoffs.  In fact, out database, which goes back to 1980, reveals it has happened just 4 times and those road teams are 0-4 SU & ATS in that fourth game.  They’ve also had the equivalent of 3 straight road playoff games entering this one as their final regular season game @ Houston was a must win or the Titans would not be in the playoffs.  That takes a toll physically and mentally and that’s why the fourth game has come up all zeros in the past.  KC on the other hand had a week off heading into last week’s 51-31 win over Houston and will be playing again at home.  Just a huge situational edge for KC.  In their two wins thus far, the Titans were outgained in both (by a combined 265 yards) and QB Tannehill has thrown for only 71 & 83 yards.  As good as RB Henry has been, we believe Tennessee will need to do much more offensively in order to keep up with the Chiefs.  Last week the Titan defense faced a whopping 92 offensive snaps which is the equivalent of about a game and a half so that added to their tough road situation should have this defense tired by the 2nd half.  Baltimore had plenty of chances offensively as the Ravens were shut out on downs FOUR times inside Tennessee territory including 3 times inside the 21 yard line.  The Ravens only punted ONCE the entire game.  The Titans were very fortunate in our view.  KC’s last loss was back in November and it was vs this Tennessee team.  The Titans won that game 35-32 but the Chiefs dominated the stat sheet rolling up 530 yards to only 370 for Tennessee.  The Titans scored on a long fumble return and put up the game winning TD with just 23 seconds remaining in the game.  KC also missed 2 FG’s in the 4th quarter and held a 9 point lead in that game with around 6:00 minutes remaining in the game.  KC QB Mahomes put up 446 yards passing and 3 TD’s in that game and we expect another huge effort here.  Despite this number sitting at 7, we still feel the value is with KC.  Speaking of that first meeting, KC was favored by 5 @ Tennessee (late November) and now laying just 7 at home.  Last week Tennessee was +10 @ Baltimore so we would expect it to be about the same here, especially with the Titans travel situation being on the road for basically a full month now.    While Tennessee is getting most of the accolades for how they have been playing down the stretch and in the playoffs, let’s remember that KC has won 7 straight by an average of 17 PPG.  They also just beat the team that WON the AFC South (same division as Tennessee) by 20 points.  We think the Titans run ends here and KC wins by double digits.  

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Green Bay -3.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 6:40 PM ET

With all of their injuries in the offensive backfield, the Seahawks have become a one trick pony.  With zero semblance of a running game, they will have to rely almost solely on the passing game and Russell Wilson.  While Wilson has had a fantastic season, his running game with RB Carson, Penny, and Prosise (all out) they did next to nothing on the ground the last week with just 19 yards rushing from their RB’s.  They caught a break last week with Eagle QB Wentz going out with a concussion in the 1st quarter leaving Philly to rely on backup QB McCown who had thrown 5 passes the entire season.  Even with that the Eagles offense was able to push the ball inside the Seattle 25 yard line on all 5 second half possessions but were unable to finish drives with McCown at the helm.  This is also a terrible spot for Seattle as two weeks ago they were in a playoff type game vs SF that came down to the final play, last week they traveled to the east coast and held on with Philly threatening late, and now they are on the road again.  They are also banged up on the offensive line with a number of starters sitting out practices this week.  Defensively the Seahawks rank in the bottom third of the NFL in most key categories and if you thrown out their game last week vs an Eagles offense that was very limited, they have allowed at least 24 points in 7 of their last 8 games.  Green Bay was able to rest last week and most of their players are at 100%.  They are much more balanced offensively with QB Rodgers and RB Jones able to mix it up.  Green Bay’s defense has also really stepped it up down the stretch holding their last 5 opponents to 20 points or less.  Wilson and Rogers have faced off 8 times in their careers with the home team winning all 8 games.  Also NFL home teams in the Divisional round (home & rest) have proven to have a huge advantage with a 25-7 SU record over the last 8 seasons.  We like GB to win this game by a TD or more.  

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +9 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This line is way too high in our opinion.  It should be under 7 according to our power ratings.  To give you an idea of what we are talking about, this is the 5th highest spread of the SEASON for New Orleans.  The only teams they faced in which they were laying more than 8 points were Carolina (twice), Atlanta, and Arizona, all teams with losing records.  For comparison’s sake, just a few weeks ago the Saints were favored by 8 here vs Indianapolis who finished with a 7-9 record.  On the other side, this is by far the largest underdog role Minnesota has faced this year.  They were +2.5 @ Seattle (a playoff team) in December and +3 @ Green Bay who is the #2 seed in the NFC.  Recent results have pushed this number too high.  Minnesota closed out the season with 2 losses as they played their worst game of the season @ home vs Green Bay and then lost to Chicago but sat their starters as they were already locked into their playoff position.  New Orleans closed out the season with 3 easy wins but 2 were vs teams who had nothing to play for including Carolina last week who had completely packed it in and had already started interviewing coaches after firing Ron Rivera.  Their lone semi impressive win over that 3 game stretch was beating Tennessee.  However even in that game the Titans jumped out to a 14 point lead but turned the ball over 4 times allowing the Saints to come back and win that one (Saints were outgained).  That win over the Titans was their only win by more than 7 points vs a team that ended the season with a winning record.  The Vikings have played very tight even in their losses with the exception of their game vs Green Bay a few weeks ago.  If you throw that game out, Minnesota’s losses have come by an average of 5 PPG.  Despite New Orleans winning 13 games and Minnesota 10, these two are almost dead even in point differential on the season (Saints +117 & Vikings +104) and Minnesota actually has outgained their opponents by +0.6 YPP compared to New Orleans +0.5 YPP.  We anticipate a close game here and getting more than a TD is a gift in our opinion.  Take Minnesota on Sunday.   

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Buffalo +3 over Houston, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET

Despite winning the weak AFC South, we feel Houston is the worst team in the AFC playoffs.  Football Outsiders Efficiency rating agrees with us as they have the Texans rated 19th overall in the NFL which is the lowest rating of any team in the playoffs, not just the AFC.  They have been outgained on the season, outscored on the season, and their defense is the worst unit in the playoffs.  Speaking of defense, we get a huge edge on that side of the ball with the Bills who rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense allowing just 298 yards which is nearly a full 100 yards less than a Houston defense that ranks 28th in total defense.  The Buffalo defense allowed more than 21 points only 3 times the entire season and they gave up 17 or less in 10 of their 16 games.  We anticipate the Texans struggling on offense here.  They faced only 3 teams this year ranked inside the top 10 at Football Outsiders and scored 7 vs Baltimore, 23 vs Tampa (16 points from the offense), and 28 vs New England.  Their 28 points vs the Patriots was a bit of an aberration as Houston was actually held to just 276 total yards.  Many may look at the Bills offense and see them having problems here as they average just 19 PPG.  On top of that over their last 4 they have not topped 17 points.  However, over their last 4 games they have faced 4 defenses ranked inside the top 7 in the NFL, thus the struggles as of late.  When facing a defense ranked 20th or lower (Houston ranks 28th) Buffalo averaged 25 PPG.  They run the ball very well (8th in the NFL at 128 YPG) and they are facing a Houston defense that allows 4.8 YPC (27th in the NFL).  On a yards per play basis, the Houston defense ranks dead last in the NFL (tied with Cincinnati) allowing 6.1 YPP.  These two met here last year in the regular season and the Texans prevailed 20-13.  The game was tied at 13-13 with under 2:00 minutes remaining and Buffalo had the ball.  A pick 6 from the Texan defense with 1:28 remaining gave Houston the point margin.  The Bills are much better than a year ago and we think they go in and win this game.  Small underdogs of 1 to 3 points in the Wildcard round are a money making 35-20 ATS since 1978 (64%).  Take the points here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Seattle +3.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

This line is a big time overreaction to what happened last week.  Our power ratings have this line at dead even yet we’re getting more than a FG with Seattle at home.  The Seahawks lost last week at home vs Arizona (we were on the Cards) in a game that really wasn’t that important for Seattle.  Even with a win over Arizona last week, this game vs San Fran would have been for all the marbles in the NFC West.  These two met on November 11th with the Niners going off as a 6 point favorite in that game and Seattle winning 27-24 in OT.  Now the Niners are laying more than a FG on the road?  We understand Seattle’s cluster injuries at the RB spot but bringing in Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin, 2 players who know the system and the plays, we’re guessing their running game will be fine on Sunday.  Not to mention they will be facing a SF defense that has been trending downward for over a month now allowing 46, 29, and 31 points the last 3 weeks alone.  Seattle had some key defensive players sitting out last week with injuries but it looks like many will return this week including DE Clowney and LB Griffin.  This is the first time Seattle has been a home dog this year.  For comparison’s sake the Seahawks were -5 here vs New Orleans and -3 vs Baltimore.  That puts this number into perspective.  The Seahawks have been a huge money maker as a home underdog going 13-2 ATS in that role since 2011.  They’ve also owned this NFC West series winning 13 of the last 15 games vs the 49ers (12-3 ATS) with SF’s only wins during that stretch coming by 2 points and 3 points in OT.  We’ll take the points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON NY Giants +4 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

Many will be jumping on Philly here because they have to win to clinch the NFC East title.  Please keep in mind that many teams that have to win, don’t win.  We give the Giants a good shot at the upset here.  The Eagles beat Dallas last week but let’s face it, they were not playing well coming into that game.  In their previous 3 games before facing off with Dallas, they lost to Miami, beat this NYG team in OT, and scored with under 30 seconds left to beat Washington.  Not overly impressive.  As we mentioned these two met a few weeks ago in what was a very important game for the Eagles and the Giants led 17-3 at half but lost in OT.  That was with immobile Eli Manning at QB for NY and now with Jones back at QB we feel the Giants have a better chance in this one.  Jones returned last week from injury and threw for 352 yards and 5 TD’s while also giving them a running threat from that position.  He’ll also get help from now healthy RB Barkley who had 189 rushing yards and 90 receiving yards last week.  The Giants offense has now put up 400+ and 500+ yards in each of their last two games, both wins.  NY has been competitive with 5 of their last 7 losses coming by a TD or less and they have some momentum coming into their home finale off back to back wins.  Philly 1-2 ATS this year as a road favorite and we’re not sure we can even count cover @ Washington as it took 2 TD’s in final 30 seconds (defensive TD included) to get that lucky cover.  How much does Philly have left in the tank after 3 straight down to the wire division games including a must win last week vs Dallas?  NY will come to play here as they’d like nothing more than to knock Philly from the NFC East top spot.  Close game and we’ll take the points

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Cincinnati +3 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Browns have obviously been a huge disappointment this season.  We could see them mailing it in this week in their season finale @ Cincy.  They had a big game last week at home vs Baltimore, their last hurrah so to speak, and lost 31-15.  With a team that lacks character like Cleveland and with nothing to play for, we anticipate a poor effort here.  On the other side, while the Bengals have only 1 win on the season, they’ve been much better since inserting Andy Dalton back at QB a month ago.  Unlike Cleveland, the Bengals are also showing some fight as witnessed in last week’s game @ Miami where they trailed 35-12 in the fourth quarter and battled back to send the game into OT where they lost by a FG.  In their home finale, we have no doubt this team wants to up their 1 win and go out on a positive note.  They’ve also already locked up the #1 pick in next year’s draft so no taking for Cincy here.  These two just met in Cleveland 3 weeks ago and the Browns won that game 27-19.  It was a misleading final however as Cincinnati outgained the Browns by 120 yards but gave up a 61-yard pick 6 which turned out to be the difference.  The Bengals were +10 in first downs in that first meeting and controlled the ground game in that loss with 179 yards rushing.  They tallied 451 total yards and after last week’s performance they have topped 400 yards in 2 of their last 3 games.  The Browns have also been a money burner as a road favorite at 1-3 ATS & SU this year and 1-5-1 ATS in that role since 2012.  We like Cincinnati to win this game so we’ll take the points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -4 over Green Bay, Monday at 8:15 PMET

The Packers have been treading on thin ice for quite some time and now and we think it catches up with them here.  They are 11-3 on the season but they have been outgained by their opponents 371 YPG to 336 YPG.  They rank 21st in the NFL in total offense and 23rd in total defense.  Those simply aren’t the numbers of an 11 win team.  Last week a struggling Bears offense outgained Green Bay by 123 yards but the Packers pulled out an 8 point win.  That was the 7th time this season GB has been outgained yet still won the game.  Aaron Rodgers is barely completing 50% of his passes over the last 3 weeks and Green Bay has been held to 24 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games.   It’s really tough to keep winning when you’re getting consistently outplayed on the stat sheet.  Especially on the road vs a solid team.  Minnesota is 6-0 at home with all but one win coming by at least 10 points.  Their average margin of victory here in Minneapolis is 13.5 points.  In the first meeting the Vikes rolled up 421 yards and held GB to just 335 but the Packers squeaked out a 21-16 win.  Minny QB Cousins, while most wouldn’t expect it, is having a better year the Rodgers.  He’s completing 70% of his passes (63% for Rogers), with 3,481 yards (Rodgers slightly less at 3,463), 25 TD’s (24 for Rodgers) and a rating of 111.1 (Rodgers is at 100.4).  If the Vikings lose here they give Green Bay the NFC North title.  A win by Minnesota extends us to next week to determine who wins the division.  The fact is the Vikes are better on offense (ranked 9th to 21st for GB), better on defense (14th to 23rd), and the better scoring team (7th to 14th for the Packers).  They are also a terrific home team winning 16 of their last 19 home games with 15 of those 16 wins coming by at least a TD.  Under Zimmer the Vikings are 28-10 ATS as a home favorite of 7 or less.  This has been a tough place for Green Bay to play as their last win in Minnesota was back in 2015.  Lay it with the Vikings here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Arizona +9.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

The Seahawks continue to win but also continue to play close games with 10 of their 11 wins coming by 8 points or less.  Their miniscule +26 point differential means they have an average winning margin of +2 PPG.  Seattle’s injuries are also mounting and we think this will be a very tough game for Seattle.  Starting DE Clowney and starting safety Diggs are both doubtful.  Starting DT Woods has also just been suspended for 4 games for violating the league’s PED policy.  The Seahawk defense ranks 27th overall and 30th in pass defense and we have no doubt that Arizona will be able to score points and keep up in this one.  The Cards picked up some confidence last week putting up 38 points vs Cleveland in a win with QB Murray hitting 9 different receivers for receptions.  Seattle won the first meeting but the stats were almost identical with each team running 55 offensive snaps and the Seahawks outgaining the Cards by just 19 yards.  Arizona is now 4-1-1 ATS this year as a road dog while Seattle is just 4-2 SU at home this year with their wins coming by 1, 1, 6 in OT, and 7 points.  Their once vaunted home field advantage has dissipated as the Seahawks are just 10-11-1 ATS their last 22 home tilts.  Seattle has a massive game with San Francisco so while a win is needed, a look ahead is not out of the question.  This NFC West division game stays close

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Over 49 Points - Baltimore @ Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

There will be plenty of points scored here between these two AFC North rivals. In the last meeting these two teams combined for 65 total points which easily eclipsed the total of 47. Baltimore put up 395 total yards in that game while the Browns put up a season high 530 yards and their second highest scoring output of 40-points. Baltimore has plenty to play for with revenge and an opportunity to clinch the 1st seed in the AFC with a win. The Ravens have the #1 efficiency offense in the NFL, #1 in yards per point scored (12.2) and first in scoring offense averaging 33.7PPG. The dynamic Baltimore offense has scored 40+ in four of their last six game and could easily get to that number here against a Browns D that is in the bottom half of the NFL in efficiency ratings. Cleveland just gave up 38-points last week to a Cardinals offense that was averaging just 20.9PPG (22nd) going into that contest. The Browns offense has been trending up since mid-November as they averaged just 19PPG prior to November 12th but have since averaged 25.2PPG. Cleveland does average 5.7 yards per play which is 14th in the NFL and we know they have enough weapons on offense to put up 21 or more in this contest. When you combine these two teams away/home Over/Under records this year they are a profitable 9-5 for the season. This game goes OVER the total rather easily.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON LA Chargers +1.5 over Minnesota, Sunday at 4 PM ET

This line opened Vikings -3 and the vast majority of bets have come in on Minnesota this week (currently 77%) yet the line dropped off the key number of 3 down to -2.5.  That tells us that despite the heavy tickets on the Vikes, the heavy money has come in on the Chargers and we agree LA is the play here.  Let’s not forget this Charger team is much better than their 5-8 record and they were in the AFC Championship game last year with many of the same players on the team this year.  They are +71 YPG on the year and +0.8 YPP.  Their point differential is also +38 on the year which makes them one of only 2 teams with a losing record that is plus in the point differential (Indy is +1).  They have outgained each of their last 5 opponents and all of their 8 losses have come by 7 or less.  They are off a confidence boosting 45-10 win @ Jacksonville last year.  Their last 2 home games they whipped Green Bay 26-11 outgaining the Packers by 258 yards and a 7 point loss vs KC in a game they outgained the Chiefs by 130 yards.  Minnesota is coming off a division win over the Lions and they have a gigantic game vs the Packers on deck.  It is their 2nd trip to the west coast in the last 3 weeks (lost by 7 @ Seattle two weeks ago).  Minnesota has been great at home (6-0 record) but they are just 3-4 on the road with their wins coming against the Giants, Lions, and Cowboys, all losing teams.  While the Chargers are also a losing team, we feel they are the top below .500 team out there and this is a dangerous spot for Minnesota.  We think LA wins this game outright.

ASA PLAY ON: Over 45 NY Jets @ Baltimore Ravens, 8:20PM ET – Our analytics say this game is going to be a higher scoring game. On the season the Jets offense has some less than appealing statistics, but they have scored 22 or more points in 4 of five and 34 points in three of those games. New York’s yards per play numbers are low but their yards per point average of 15.6Y.P.P.T is only slightly below league average. The Jets have nothing to lose at this point so expect them to open the playbook here on national TV against the marquee Ravens. New York has some impressive overall defensive numbers but the offenses they’ve faced has inflated those statistics. Against a few of the good offenses they’ve faced they’ve given up a ton of yards and points. Versus Dallas, who has similar numbers to the Ravens offense, the Jets allowed 400 total yards, 26 first downs and 22-points. The next best offenses they lined up against were the Patriots and Eagles who they gave up over 30-points to in each game. The Jets have some injuries on the defensive side of the football and are not facing the most diverse offense in the NFL with QB Lamar Jackson. Baltimore is 1st in average points scored per game at 33.1PPG, 2nd in total yards per game at 408.2YPG and 1st in rushing at 200.9RYPG. The Ravens offense had scored 30 or more points in 5 straight games before a pair of 20+ outings against two solid defenses of the Bills and 49ers. Our math model projects a Ravens win 32-17 or 49 total points being scored. We couldn’t agree more.

ASA 10* PLAY ON NY Giants +105 over Philadelphia, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

We anticipate the Giants rallying around QB Eli Manning who steps in for his first start since September 15th.  He had fairly solid numbers in those 2 starts with 556 yards passing, 63% completion rate (vs Cowboys and Bills).  The organization, however, was ready to move on and see what Daniel Jones could do.  Jones looked decent early but he has now lost 8 in a row (2-6 ATS) as defenses have figured him out.  He’s also been a turnover machine with 21 giveaways in his 11 games.  Manning will be an upgrade tonight as he is rested and ready to go.  The Eagles are way too inconsistent to be laying double digits in this game.  They have lost 3 in a row to drop to 5-7, including a 37-31 setback @ Miami last week.  The Eagles have been outgained in 6 of their last 9 games and they’ve been held to 22 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games.  Those numbers make it tough to see them as nearly a 10 point favorite here.  This is also a division game which we feel favors the big dog here.  Looking at Philly’s last 18 wins over NY, only 6 have come by more than 10 points.  Take the points here. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON LA Rams +1 over Seattle, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

This line opened with the Seahawks favored by -2.5 and has dropped despite nearly 70% of the tickets coming in on Seattle.  We agree with the move and like the Rams here.  Seattle is on a short week coming off a 37-30 home win over Minnesota.   Seattle is now 9-1 SU this year in one score games so they are far from a dominant team despite their 10-2 record.  In fact, if you line these two teams up on a point differential and YPG differential basis, they are almost identical despite the 3 game difference in the standings.  The Rams are +33 points on the season and +43 YPG on the year while the Seahawks are +36 PPG and +21 YPG on the season.  The Rams have a HUGE edge defensively allowing just 4.9 YPP (4th in the NFL) to Seattle’s 5.8 YPP allowed (24th in the NFL).  Seattle has a slight edge offensively (5.9 YPP to 5.8 YPP) but the Rams seemed to get their momentum back offensively last week putting up a season high 550 yards @ Arizona.  These two met earlier this year and the Rams were +2 in that game @ Seattle and now the spread is in the same neighborhood at home.  The gives us value on LA here.  IN that first meeting the Rams outgained Seattle putting up 477 yards but missed a FG as time expired in the 30-29 loss.  LA has outgained 10 of their 12 opponents and they are better than their record.  They are also 11-4 SU at home in division games since Sean McVay took over as head coach.  This is a much bigger game for the Rams who are fighting for their playoff lives currently 1 game out of the final wildcard spot.  We like the Rams to win this game.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

This line just a few weeks ago would have had Oakland favored and now, because of recent results, they are getting a full FG at home.  The Raiders won 3 consecutive home games in beginning in early November before taking the road and losing @ NY Jets & @ KC the last 2 weeks.  Last week’s 40-9 loss was extremely misleading as Oakland actually outgained the Chiefs by 73 yards (5.8 YPP to 4.4 YPP) and held the potent KC offense to less than 300 yards of total offense.  Three first half turnovers led to 14 KC points and put Oakland in a quick 21-0 hole which they couldn’t climb out of.  They catch an overvalued Tennessee team coming off a huge division win @ Indy last Sunday.  The Titans were outgained by the Colts and the game swung on a blocked FG returned for a TD with the game tied at 17-17.  Tennessee has won 5 of their last 6 but they’ve been outgained in half of those games (3).  Because of the Titan’s run, we are getting solid value here.  Just a few weeks ago Tennessee was +3.5 @ Carolina who is rated almost dead even with Oakland in our power ratings and now the Titans are laying a full FG.  Both teams are fighting for the playoffs and only one game separates them with Oakland at 6-6 and Tennessee at 7-5.  The fact is Oakland has been very good at home this year with a 5-1 record and their only loss here coming vs Kansas City.  They catch the Titans in a perfect sandwich spot off a huge division road win, on the road for the 2nd straight week and a game with division leader Houston on deck.  We like the Raiders to win this one outright so we’ll take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 43 Points - Tennessee @ Indianapolis, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The spread on this game is currently Tennessee (-1) thus the final expected score is 22-21.  The Colts have scored at least 24 points in 4 of their 6 games this season and one of those low scoring games was with Brian Hoyer at QB and Jacoby Brissett sidelined with an injury.  Now facing a Tennessee defense that is trending downward allowing 25 PPG over their last 5 contests.  On the other side of the all, the Titans are playing very well offensively right now.  Since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB, Tennessee is averaging 29.5 PPG and they have scored at least 3 offensive TDs in each of his 5 starts.  Last week they tallied 42 points and 471 yards vs the Jags.  The last two games they’ve scored 77 points.  The oddsmakers have yet to catch up to this improvement as the Titans have gone OVER in all 5 of Tannehill’s starts yet this one is set in the low 40’s.  We like both offenses to have success here in perfect conditions in the dome and push this one OVER the total rather easily.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Dallas -6.5 over Buffalo, Thursday at 3:30 PM ET

Dallas is much better than their 6-5 record in our opinion.  They lead the league in yards per play differential at +1.4 and their offense is actually #1 in the NFL in total yards per game (433) and YPP (6.6).  Those are better numbers than the red hot Baltimore offense!  The only team that outgained Dallas this year was New Orleans and that was by just 9 yards.  Despite their 6-5 record, Dallas has the 2nd best point differential in the NFC at +85 trailing only San Francisco.  Last Sunday the Cowboys took New England to the wire on the road before losing 13-9.  They outgained the Pats by 40 yards despite running fewer offensive plays.  Buffalo is not as good as their 8-3 record would indicate.  Their offense is pedestrian averaging just 18 PPG if you subtract their 2 games vs Miami.  Last week they topped Denver 20-3 but still have beaten only 1 team this year that currently has a record above .500 (Tennessee).  The Bills strength of schedule ranks dead last in the NFL at 32nd.  The teams they’ve beaten so far this year have a current winning percentage of .239 or just less than 24%.  The Cowboys running game which averages 4.6 YPC (8th in the NFL) matches up very well with Buffalo’s defensive weakness and that is allowing 4.4 YPC (21st in the NFL).  That should open up the Dallas passing game and we expect them to play very well on offense.  We don’t see Buffalo’s offense keeping up in this game.  Lay the points with Dallas.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 47 Points - Baltimore @ LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

This number is set a few points higher than our projection and we think the value is on the UNDER here.  The main reason it is set higher than it should be is because of Baltimore’s offensive performances over the last month or so.  They have scored at least 30 points in 4 straight games.  However, 3 of the 4 teams they’ve faced rank 22nd or lower in YPP allowed and defensive efficiency according to Football Outsiders.  The one good defense they faced during that stretch was New England and while they did put up 37 points, they really didn’t put up huge stat numbers with 372 yards on 5.8 YPP.  They did have a defensive TD in that game as well so based on those numbers they normally would have scored in the mid to upper 20’s in that situation.  The only other top 10 YPP defense the Ravens have faced this year is Pittsburgh and they scored 23 in regulation in that game.  The Rams are the 4th best YPP defense in the NFL (4.8) and they’ve held 7 of their 10 opponents to 20 points or fewer.  They are also excellent at stopping the run allowing only 3.3 YPC on the season which ranks 2nd in the NFL behind only the Jets.  That is key vs Baltimore that runs the ball more than another other team in the NFL.  Many still view the Rams offense has a high scoring outfit which simply isn’t the case anymore.  They are averaging 24 PPG which is down nearly a full TD from last season.  They have scored only 29 combined points in their last 2 games vs Pittsburgh and Chicago.  They ran the ball 34 times last week (only 18 passes) vs a solid Chicago defense and we feel they’ll have the same gameplan tonight.  Run the ball vs a Baltimore defense that ranks 21st allowing 4.4 YPC.  That will keep the Baltimore offense off the field which is key.  The Raven defense has been keeping teams out of the endzone allowing 20 points or less in 5 straight games and with the Rams struggling on offense, we just don’t see many points tonight.  Take the UNDER in this one.    

ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 46.5 Points - Carolina @ New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Carolina offense has been trending downward for weeks now.  They have lost 3 of their last 4 games and their offense was held 16 points or less in 3 of those 4 games.  Now that defenses have tape on Panther QB Allen, they have been able to slow him down after a red hot start.  In the last 4 games he’s only thrown 3 TD passes.  We don’t expect that to change against a very good Saints defense that ranks 5th in the NFL in defensive efficiency per Football Outsiders.  On the other side, many still view the New Orleans offense as the high potent, high scoring attack they had last season when they averaged 31 PPG.  That really isn’t the case this year as the Saints rank nearly the middle of the pack in scoring (23.8 PPG), total offense (364 YPG) and offensive efficiency (5.7 YPP).  In the 5 games Drew Brees has started at QB, they’ve actually averaged fewer points than their season average (22 PPG).  Last week they scored 34 points, however on TD came from the defense, and Buc QB Jameis Winston set them up nicely on a few others throwing 4 picks.  The Saints only had 328 total yards on 5.1 YPP vs a poor Tampa defense.  Now they face a much better Carolina defense that ranks 13th in the YPP allowed.  The Panthers do have one weakness on defense and that is their rush defense which means we expect the Saints to run the ball a lot which eats up the clock.  These two division rivals know each other very well and we anticipate somewhat of a defensive battle here that lands in the low 40’s.  We’ll take the UNDER.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +4 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

As we’ve said many times this season, Denver is much better than their 3-7 record.  Last week we thought they were in a terrible spot @ Minnesota, who tends to destroy teams at home, with a QB that had never started a road game.  We took the Vikings thinking a 2 TD win for the host was probable.  Denver proved us wrong losing just 27-23 and they actually led Minnesota 20-0 in the first half.  QB Allen played solid (240 yards passing) and the defense continued to play very well holding a potent Minnesota attack to just 320 yards.  Denver actually outgained Minnesota by 73 yards and played very well in one of the tougher environments in the NFL.  Now they head to Buffalo in a game they can absolutely win.  The Bills are a bit of a farce at 7-3 as only one of their wins came against a team with any type of a pulse (14-7 win vs Tennessee).  Their other wins have come against Miami (twice), Washington, NY Giants, NY Jets, and Cincinnati.  Those 4 teams have combined for a 6-34 record and that makes this Bills record a bit misleading.  While Denver only has 3 wins, as we discussed they are underrated and much better than any of those 4 teams mentioned.  Despite their record the Broncos are +11 YPG and +0.2 YPP on the season.  Those are the stats of a .500 type team.  Buffalo struggles to score.  If you take out their two games vs Miami they are only averaging 17 PPG.  Now they face one of the better defenses in the NFL (Denver 9th in defensive efficiency) and we expect the Buffalo offense to struggle.  The Broncos have played close games all season long with 7 of their 10 games being single score contests (8 points or less).  Four of their seven losses have come by 4 points or less.  We look for a low scoring game and we give Denver a great shot at winning.  Take the points.

ASA play on: Houston Texans -3.5 over Indianapolis Colts, 8:20PM ET – This is a huge game for both teams as it may decide the AFC South. From a situational standpoint we must take the Texans, at home, on a short week and playing with same season revenge as they lost in Indy a few weeks ago. Not too mention, the Texans are off a HORRIBLE showing against the Ravens last week. But this game will be different as they don’t face a mobile QB like Lamar Jackson who threw for 222 yards, 4 TD’s and rank for another 86. The Colts are off a big win against Jacksonville at home with Jacoby Brissett throwing for just 148 total yards, 1 passing TD and 1 INT. These two teams have played nearly identical schedules yet the Colts net yards per play differential is minus -0.3 while the Texans is even. Houston relies heavily on QB Watson who has 8 TD’s and zero INT’s in his last two home games with 705 passing yards. We like the home team here and will lay the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Houston +4.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Baltimore has become a bit too public since beating New England a few weeks ago and we feel this line is too high.  Houston is coming off a bye and they absolutely are good enough to win this game outright and the points at +4.5 are giving us some nice cushion if Baltimore does win.  Houston is 3-1 in road games including a win @ KC when the Chiefs had QB Mahomes at 100%.  The Texans dominated that game outgained the potent Chiefs by 163 yards.  The Houston defense allows just 84 YPG rushing (3rd best in the NFL) which matches up very well with what Baltimore likes to do on offense and that is run the ball.  In order to beat this Baltimore team, you need to slow down their running game and force QB Lamar Jackson to try and win through the air.  We think Houston can do just that.  Baltimore has been very good in the underdog role but they are just 2-4 ATS this year when favored.  Let’s not forget that before they beat New England, the Ravens lost at home to Cleveland by 15 points and picked up close wins vs both Cincinnati & Arizona.  The Texans are 3-1 ATS as underdogs this year and they’ve won all 3 of those games outright.  Even when Houston loses, it tends to be a close game.  In fact, since Deshaun Watson took over as the starting QB in 2017, Houston has lost 11 games with him under center and all were by 8 points or less.  We think this one goes to the wire and we’ll take the generous points.  

ASA 10* PLAY ON Over the Total - Seattle @ San Francisco, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

This Seattle team is a complete 180 from the teams they had a few years ago that focused on defense and simply controlling the game on offense.  This year’s team has a poor defense (27th in defensive efficiency per Football Outsiders) and a very good offense (3rd most efficient per Football Outsiders).  They need to try and win higher scoring games because their defense can’t stop other teams.  The Seattle defense has allowed 28 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games.  Even with that, the Seahawks won 4 of those 5 games which tells you what they can do offensively.  The SF defense has been very good however some of that is most likely due to the offenses they’ve faced.  In fact, of the last 8 teams they’ve faced, not one ranks in the top half of the NFL in offensive efficiency (yards per play).  Tonight they face a Seattle offense that ranks in the top 7 in total offense, offensive efficiency, and points scored.  They are also facing the hottest QB in the NFL at this moment as Russell Wilson has the highest QBR in the league and has thrown 22 TD’s and just 1 interception on the year.  In their most recent game the Niner defense showed some flaws vs an Arizona offense with a rookie QB (Cards had 25 points and 400+ yards).   Seattle will put up points tonight.  San Fran will do the same vs this porous Seattle defense.  If we throw out their game @ Washington that was played in a monsoon, the 49ers have scored at least 24 points in all but one game this year.  With this spread set at SF -6, the expected score tonight would be around 26-20 or 27-21.  We think both teams top those projected offensive scoring numbers and we take this one OVER the total.   

ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +3.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

You couldn’t ask for a better situation for a wager on the Vikings as they are off a disappointing loss, while the public Cowboys are off a big TV win on Monday night. That makes this a short week for a Cowboys team that is vastly over-rated by playing the 31st easiest schedule in the NFL. The Cowboys have played five games against teams with a combined 7-36 SU record and are the five worst teams in the NFL. Dallas has an average margin of victory this year of +10.6PPG but if you eliminate the previously teams that differential shrinks to just +1.6PPG. They’ve already lost to a pair of comparable teams to the Vikings in New Orleans (without Brees) and home against the Packers. Despite the disparity in scheduling the Cowboys yards per play differential (1.6YPPL) is barely better than the Vikings (1.0YPPL) and a tougher schedule. The Vikings have an average differential of +8.4PPG and have played a much better schedule than Dallas. Minnesota has a 2-3 SU road record this year, but the losses have come against Green Bay, at Chicago when the Bears were decent and then last week in Kansas City. Vikings head coach Zimmer is 17-3-1 ATS when coming off a loss and playing a non-division opponent and a remarkable 40-16-3 ATS when facing a non-NFC North team. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Cleveland -2.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We’re definitely buying low on Cleveland here.  Nobody wants to bet the Browns right now after losing @ Denver last week dropping them to 2-6 yet they are favored over the 6-2 Bills here.  There is a reason they are favored in this game and we expect a bounce back game for Cleveland.  We all know they are a very talented team and now they are backed into a corner with everyone seemingly against them.  That’s many times when NFL teams step up and play well.  We also don’t mind fading a Buffalo team that we feel is completely overvalued at this point in the season.  Their 6 wins have come against teams that have a combined record of 9-41 and none have a .500 record.  They have beaten Miami, NY Jets, NY Giants, Washington, Cincinnati, and Tennessee.  Last week they beat a terrible Washington team 24-9 but the Bills had just 268 yards of total offense in that game.  They have also been at home for 5 of their last 6 games so their schedule thus far has been very much in favor of them.  The Buffalo offense is fairly pedestrian ranking 22nd scoring only 19.8 PPG despite playing 4 of the bottom 12 defenses in the NFL this year.  Their defense is overrated in our opinion for the same reason as the Bills have faced 6 of the bottom 9 NFL teams ranked in total offense.  Their run defense has been exposed a bit over the last 3 weeks allowing 127 yards rushing to the Skins, 218 to the Eagles, and 109 to the Dolphins.  Cleveland is one of the better running teams in the NFL (2nd in YPC) and not only will the Browns run Nick Chubb at the Buffalo defense but Kareem Hunt is now eligible as well.  We expect the Browns with their backs against the wall hearing from everyone all week how bad they are, to rise up and play very well on Sunday.  We spoke earlier about why would a 2-6 Cleveland team be favored over a 6-2 Buffalo team?  Here is a very interesting and STRONG stat on that situation.  Over the last 25 seasons, this is just the 7th time in week 6 or later a team winning 25% or less of their games (Cleveland) is favored over a team winning 75% or more of their games (Buffalo).  The favorite (supposed bad team) that has won 25% or less is 6-0 ATS in those games as a favorite!  Again there is a reason Cleveland is favored and we’ll take the Browns on Sunday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 48 Points - LA Chargers @ Oakland, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

We expect to see a back and forth scoring game tonight.  Oakland’s offense is solid averaging 6.2 YPP which is 3rd in the NFL behind only Dallas and KC.  They had scored at least 24 points in 5 straight games including 31 points (400+ total yards) last week here vs Detroit.  Their offense rates 5th in the NFL in efficiency according to Football Outsiders.  They are a very good running team (4.8 YPC good for 8th in the NFL) and QB Derek Carr is quietly having a very good season now that he’s healthy (71% completions, 1,980 yards passing, 13 TD’s, and just 4 interceptions).  The problem is their defense stinks.  They’re going to need to score a fair amount of points to win games.  The Raiders are allowing 6.3 YPP which is better than ONLY Cincinnati this season.  Last week Detroit roasted this defense for a ridiculous 7.6 YPP.  Three weeks ago Green Bay averaged almost 9.0 YPP in their game vs Oakland.  We don’t see them slowing down a Charger offense that ranks 9th in the NFL in offensive efficiency (Football Outsiders) and put up 442 yards on Green Bay last week.  The Chargers had 26 points in the game but could have had more as they got up 26-3 and went conservative in the 4th quarter.  As for the Charger defense, they played very well last week but they also caught Green Bay in a terrible spot on the road a week after beating KC on the road.  Aaron Rodgers even admitted his team may have been reading their press clippings and came out flat.  The 5 teams they faced leading into their GB game were Chicago, Tennessee, Pittsburgh (back up QB), Denver, and Miami, all poor offenses.  Those teams rank 18, 26, 27, 28, and 30 in scoring offense and 22, 23, 27, 28, and 31 in offensive efficiency (Football Outsiders).  Oakland will be the most efficient offense they have faced this season.  This line is around a pick-em which tells us the final score should be 24-24 or in that range.  We expect both of these teams to top 24 tonight and we’ll grab the OVER.    

ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland -2.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

Oakland is just happy to be home where they have not played since September 15th!  They’ve played 5 consecutive games away from home including a game in London a few weeks back.  They also had a bye thrown in so 6 full weeks and you can bet the loyal Black & Silver followers will be amped up for this game.  The Raiders were 2-3 on their road trip and were quite impressive based on their competition.  They beat Indy & Chicago during that stretch with losses @ GB, @ Minnesota, and @ Houston.  They actually outgained GB on the road but the game turned on a few key turnovers including one late in the 1st half that turned into a 14 points swing in favor of the Packers.  Last week @ Houston the Raiders never trailed until 6:00 minutes remaining in the game in a 27-24 loss and they outgained the Texans drastically averaging 7.1 YPP to just 5.2 for Houston.  On that 5 game road swing the Raiders played the 2 best teams in the NFC North and the 2 best teams in the AFC South and presented themselves very well.  On top of that, they played KC when Mahomes was a full strength so 5 of their 7 games this season have come against some of the top teams in the NFL.  This team is better than their 3-4 record.  Detroit comes in with a 3-3-1 record on the season and they are getting outgained by an average of 41 YPG (379 on offense / 420 on defense).  Their defense has been very poor ranking 31st in the NFL in total defense ahead of only Cincinnati.  The Lions have allowed at least 430 yards in 3 of their last 4 games.  They also allow 130 YPG on the ground which is a bad match up here vs an Oakland running game that puts up 131 YPG.  That should open things up for QB Derek Carr and we look for the Raider offense to have a big game vs a Detroit defense that has allowed at least 23 points in all but one game this season.  Oakland wins and covers at home.

ASA 10* TOP GAME PLAY ON NY Jets +7.5 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We love the value here with the Jets.  This line tells us that If Jacksonville was @ the Jets the line would be around a pick-em with the Jags potentially even favored.  We just don’t see that.  This line is too high and now with Sam Darnold back at QB we feel these teams are actually pretty close which would make Jacksonville -3 or -3.5 here, NOT -6.5.  In this game we get the Jets coming in off an embarrassment on Monday Night football.  They lost 33-0 to New England, not a huge surprise, and had 6 turnovers.  The Patriots defensive schemes can do that to the best of offenses.  We often see teams play much better off games like this.  Often you can get some line value coming off a Monday Night game like that as people see a team struggle or get shutout and are reluctant to wager on them the next week.  We definitely have that in this game.  Let’s not forget a week earlier this NY Jets team, with Darnold back at the helm, beat Dallas.  Now they play a so-so team in Jacksonville who comes in with a 3-4 record and trending downward in our opinion.  We look for the Jets offense to play much better in this game.  They are off a game facing a New England defense that has been historically good this year and now facing a Jacksonville defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in most key stats (total defense, Yards per play defense, rush defense, and pass defense).  They will also be without 3 key LB’s in this game and that means Jacksonville is down to 1 LB who’s played more than 1 snap this season.  Those are key cluster injuries to a very important position.  Most wouldn’t know it but the Jets have a top 10 defense on a yards per play basis allowing just 5.3 – Jags allow 5.9.  The Jets offensive stats are very poor but not reflective of the current offense.  They are a completely different offense with Darnold at the helm and the play calling reflects that.  He has played in just 3 games but has led NY to all but one of their TD’s on the season.  Also remember, that 2 of those games came against New England and Buffalo, two of the top three defenses in the NFL in total yards allowed.  They are facing a Jacksonville team that won 27-17 @ Cincinnati (who’s now 0-7) last week but were trailing 10-9 in the fourth quarter and the Jags were the beneficiary of a pick 6 for 7 of their 27 points.  QB Gardner Minshew was the talk of the NFL in his first few starts but now that there is film on him, he’s come back down to earth a bit and the defenses have adjusted.   In his last 2 games, Minshew has completed just 29 of his 61 pass attempts (47.5%) with only 1 TD and 1 interception.  He also had his two lowest QB ratings in those 2 most recent games.  In their last 2 games vs the Saints & Bengals, the Jaguars had 22 total offensive possessions and Minshew led them to ONE touchdown.  That’s it.  He’s struggling and if that means Jacksonville has to rely on their running game, they are facing a Jets defense that ranks #2 in the NFL allowing only 3.3 yards per carry.  We see this as a tight game throughout and one the Jets can absolutely win.  Getting +7 or more here is worth a solid play in this one.  

ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore +3 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

Seattle comes in with a shaky 5-1 record in our opinion.  Four of their five wins have come down to the wire with margins of 1, 1, 2, and 4 points.  Their only comfortable win was @ Arizona.  All of their 5 wins have come against teams that are currently at or below .500 and again, most were decided in the last few minutes of play.  The only team they’ve faced that currently has a winning record, the Saints, beat them here on their home field.  Both of these teams come off deceiving results last week.  Baltimore beat Cincinnati 23-17 but dominated the game outgaining the Bengals by 250 yards.  Seattle was down 20-6 @ Cleveland and had to claw back to pick up a 32-28 win and were aided by 4 Browns turnovers (just 1 for Seattle).  The Ravens lead the NFL in total offense averaging 450 YPG and their YPG differential is an impressive +100 (Seattle’s is +40).  The Ravens also lead the NFL in rushing at 205 YPG and they are playing into a Seattle defense that allows 4.7 YPC (25th in the NFL).  Their balanced attack with QB Jackson mixing in the passing game should keep the Seattle defense that allows 6.0 YPP (25th in the NFL) off balance.  Seattle’s once vaunted home field advantage isn’t so great anymore.  They are just 9-7 SU their last 16 home games and their ATS mark here is 6-11 their last 17 (0-3 ATS this year).  They have not been impressive here this year with a 1-point win over an 0-6 Cincinnati team (Bengals outgained Seattle by 197 yards), a loss to New Orleans, and a 1-point win over the Rams who misses a FG as time expired which would have won the game.  Baltimore, on the other hand, thrives in this role with a 6-0-1 ATS mark as a road underdog.  We give the Ravens a great shot at the win and if not, we’re guessing it comes to the wire so any points are valuable here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Detroit +4 over Green Bay, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

Green Bay is off a big win @ Dallas but looking at the stats they were quite fortunate.  The Cowboys outgained GB by 228 yards and averaged a whopping 8.2 YPP vs the Packer defense.  Green Bay’s offense only averaged 5.2 YPP in the game.  Dallas had 3 big turnovers which contributed to the Packer win.  Green Bay is not quite as good as their 4-1 record might indicates as they are getting outgained by -40 YPG and -0.6 YPP.  The defense looked great early but they’ve definitely come back to earth.  After completely shutting down a bad Chicago offense in their season opener, the GB defense has allowed an average of 6.2 YPP over their last 4 games.  Detroit has a situational advantage here coming off a bye.  They have also beaten Green Bay 4 straight times including 2 wins here at Lambeau which gives them confidence coming in.  The Lions have played a tough schedule beating the Chargers and Eagles.  They blew a big lead @ Arizona to open the season in a game that ended in a tie and their only loss was vs the Chiefs in a game Detroit led with under 1:00 minute remaining.  The Lions have scored at least 30 points in each of their last 4 meetings with Green Bay and with the Packer defense not as good as people are making them out to be, Detroit could get there again.  All of Detroit’s games this year have been decided by 4 points or less and we see another close one here.  Take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON LA Rams -3 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

We love this spot for the Rams.  They have had a full 10 days to get ready for this one after their 30-29 road loss @ Seattle last Thursday.  It was their 2nd of back to back losses after they lost to Tampa the previous Sunday.  Now you have the team that was in last year’s Super Bowl sitting at 3-2 in a must win spot at home.  The Niners, on the other hand, come in on a short week after beating Cleveland Monday night.  So San Francisco is undefeated at 4-0 but they come into this game overvalued in our opinion.  The four teams they’ve beaten are all currently under .500 and they have a combined record of just 5-15.  Last year when these teams met in LA the Rams were -10.5 favorites and now they are laying only a FG?  We realize Niner QB Garoppolo didn’t play in that game and SF looks improved but should this line really be a full 7.5 points off from last season?  The value and situation absolutely favor LA here.  In the Sean McVay era, the Rams have lost back to back games only twice and the rebounded with win and cover their next game both times.  Historically NFL home favorites off Thursday night games (extra prep time) facing teams off Monday night games (short week) have covered 9 of 12 times.  San Fran’s defense has looked good this year but let’s keep in mind that all of their opponents have an offense ranked 18th or lower (offensive efficiency via Football Outsiders) and 3 of those teams rank 25th or lower.  The QB’s they’ve faced this year are Mason Rudolph, Andy Dalton, Baker Mayfield, and Jameis Winston.  This week they take a step up facing Jared Goff.  Now to the LA defense.  After holding their first 3 opponents to 49 total points, the LA defense wasn’t great the last 2 weeks including last week @ Seattle where they allowed 30 points.  However, the Seattle offense ranks 3rd in the NFL in efficiency which is far better than any offense SF has faced.  They’ve already faced Russell Wilson, Cam Newton when he was healthy, and Drew Brees who are all far better than an QB the Niners have faced.  We expect the Rams defense, which is very talented to play much better at home after two somewhat embarrassing performances.  We also look for the offense to play well vs a 49er defense with solid stats because they’ve played weak offenses.  This is a much, much bigger game for the experienced Rams and we like them to win by more than a FG. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Cincinnati +12 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Ravens continue to be overvalued by the oddsmakers and the public.  This team is simply not very good.  Their defense ranks 31st allowing 6.7 YPP and the only team that is worse are the hapless Dolphins.  The Ravens wins have come against Miami, Arizona, and Pittsburgh.  The Arizona & Pittsburgh wins came down to the wire and last week the game with the Steelers, who were playing their 3rd string QB in the 4th quarter, went to OT.  Despite playing an easy schedule, their only double digit win was @ Miami to open the season.  The Bengals are 0-5 but they’ve been competitive more often than not with 3 of their 5 losses coming by 4 points or less.  They’ve also played much better on the road this year taking Seattle & Buffalo, both better teams than Baltimore, to the wire in 1 and 4 points losses respectively.  Cincy was +9 @ Seattle and +6.5 @ Buffalo and now they are getting double digits at division rival Baltimore?  The value is absolutely on Cincinnati here.  Laying double digits with a poor defense is not a way to get rich quick when wagering on football.  Baltimore is already 0-2 ATS as a home favorite this season and just 10-22-1 ATS their last 33 games as a home chalk.  Going back to 2010 they are 4-11 ATS as a double digit favorite.  Cincinnati has lost by more than 11 points only twice in the last 20 meetings between these two AFC North rivals.  The last time a team in this series was favored by double digits was way back in 2001 and the dog has also covered 9 of the last 10.  This one should be close.  Take the points.

ASA play on: Cleveland Browns +5 over San Francisco 49ers, Monday 8:20PM ET  - When we compare the key stats between these two teams we see some clear advantages on paper for San Francisco but we never just look at the numbers. We dig deeper. The Niners have one of the best rush defenses statistically in the NFL allowing just 3.4 yards per rush which ranks them 3rd. But they’ve played the Bengals (30th), Steelers (27th) and Bucs (24th) who are three of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL when it comes to yards per rush attempt. San Francisco will be tested here by a Browns offense that is 9th in RYPA at 4.9. That’s a big key for Cleveland as a strong running game takes pressure off QB Mayfield and opens up the play action pass. Sticking to that theme, the 49ers defense is ranked as one of the best in the NFL, but again, that’s a byproduct of the poor offenses they’ve faced.  The Browns on the other hand are starting to look like a team that was hyped to be a contender in the AFC this season. Cleveland has the 8th most efficient defense in the NFL and have faced two of the best offenses already in Baltimore and the L.A. Rams. Jimmy G and the 49ers are 3-0 on the season but the three wins have come against teams with a combined 3-12 SU record. San Francisco is off a bye but that hasn’t helped them in the past as they are on an 0-6 ATS streak in that scheduling situation. The Niners are 7-17 ATS their last 24 home games and the last time they covered as a home favorite was 2014 with Jim Harbaugh as the coach. In fact, the 49ers are 1-12-1 ATS as a home favorite their last fourteen. Cleveland on the other hand excels as an underdog with a 9-5 ATS record dating back to the start of last season. SF has benefited with 2.3 takeaways per game, but they’ve also turned in over 2.7 times per game which is worst in the NFL. Don’t trust a favorite that doesn’t take care of the football. PLAY ON BROWNS!

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +7 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

This line looks fishy to us.  The 0-4 Denver Broncos only getting 6.5 points?  Shouldn’t this be 7 or higher?  A few spots have +7 by the majority are at +6.5.  The Chargers were favored by 7 and 7.5 in the two meetings last year.  Looks like the oddsmakers are betting people to take the Chargers in this one.  We actually like this Denver team.  They are much better than their 0-4 record.  They’ve lost 2 games on FG’s as time expired to Chicago and Jacksonville.  They lost by 11 @ Green Bay in a game that should have been much closer as the yardage was dead even and the Packers scored on a 37 yard TD drive and 5 yard TD drive following Denver turnovers.  We’re not sold quite yet on the Chargers.  They are very close to being 1-3 with their only win coming vs the hapless Dolphins.  Their other win was at home in OT vs the Colts in a game where Indy kicker Adam Vinitieri missed 2 FG’s and an XP.  If not for that, the Colts win that game.  Even last week vs Miami, it was a 20-10 game entering the fourth quarter and they outgained the Fins by just 157 yards and they were +1.0 yard per play.  While that may look impressive, every other team that has played Miami has outgained them by at least 195 yards and were at least +2.8 YPP.  LA also has very little home field advantage and we wouldn’t be surprised to see just as many Bronco fans in the seats on Sunday.  The Chargers are 0-2 ATS at home this year and just 6-15 ATS their last 21 when playing host.  This is a division game so while Denver is 0-4, they’ve been very competitive and we expect them to go all out here.  The underdog is 12-4-2 ATS the last 16 meetings in this AFC West rivalry and we’ll call for another underdog cover.     

ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina -3 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This is a tough spot for the Jags as this will be their 3rd road game in 4 weeks including last week’s come from behind win @ Denver.  Last week Jacksonville fell behind 17-3 @ Denver and had to battle their way back to get the last second win with a FG as time expired.  The fact is, the Broncos ran 22 fewer offensive plays in that game and it still took a late FG to win the game for the Jaguars.  Denver outgained Jacksonville on a YPP basis 6.9 to 6.0 but the Bronco defense allowed RB Leonard Fournette to run wild racking up 225 yards on the ground.  Fournette had not topped 70 yards rushing in any game leading up to that performance so we see that as an outlier.  Everyone is talking about the impact that QB Minshew has had on the Jags but how about Carolina QB Allen getting some notice?  He gives the Panthers a much better chance to win compared to a banged up Cam Newton who couldn’t throw the ball down the field at all.  Allen is now 2-0 as a starter and has thrown for almost 500 yards and 4 TD’s with no interceptions.  His QBR is 65.8 which currently would rank him 6th in the NFL if he had enough snaps under his belt.  For comparison’s sake, Minshew’s QBR is 47.0 which is 18th in the NFL and while we feel he is a very solid rookie, the hype has become a little much.  Minshew also tweaked his knee late in last week’s game and is not 100% and was held out of practice until midweek.  His counterpart Allen is not just another guy thrown in under center, he was a 5* QB recruit that actually beat out Heisman winner and Arizona QB Kyler Murray at Texas A&M prompting Murray to transfer to Oklahoma.  He’s definitely not just another guy.  Another aspect of Carolina’s team that gets overlooked is their defense which is really good.  The Panthers currently rank 4th in the NFL in total defense allowing only 287 YPG and 2nd in YPP defense allowing just 4.3.  Since losing 30-27 to the Rams in the season opener, Carolina has not allowed more than 20 points.  They are very close to being 4-0 rather than 2-2 with close losses to the Rams & an emerging Tampa team.  We would argue that if Allen had been under center since day one, this team might be 4-0.  Add in the strong ATS stat that has Jacksonville just 4-20 ATS their last 24 games vs NFC team and this one looks solid.  Just a very good situation to grab a surging Carolina team at home in this one.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New England -15 over Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Horrible match up for the Skins.  It looks like Washington head coach Jay Gruden will be starting rookie Dwayne Haskins at QB or veteran Colt McCoy which is not ideal vs the Patriots top notch defense.  Haskins came in last week vs a bad Giant defense and threw 3 interceptions in their 24-3 loss and they were outgained by over 200 yards.  McCoy hasn’t taken a snap this season and has had very little practice time with his receivers due to his recovery from last year’s broken leg.  If this offense with Haskins at the helm could only score 3 points vs a Giant defense that had allowed at least 28 points in every other game, what are they going to do against a New England defense that has allowed one TD the ENTIRE season.  While this line is obviously high, it’s nothing new to the Patriots who have now been favored by more than 14 points three times this season.  They controlled the other two games they were tabbed big favorites vs Miami & NY Jets outscoring them by a combined 73-14 and we’d put Washington in that terrible team category at the moment.  There are also rumblings of Gruden being fired as early as next week so there are plenty of distractions to go along with this 0-4 team.  Expect New England to play very well as they are coming off a poor outing.  They did beat Buffalo 16-10 but they were outgained drastically by the Bills and Tom Brady had his worst QB rating in 13 years in that game.  The Redskin defense had allowed 30 or more points in every game until the Giants scored 24 last week.  The Patriots coming off a poor offensive showing should have a field day against this defense on Sunday.  They shouldn’t have to score much to get this cover either.  We don’t anticipate Washington doing much of anything offensively so New England scoring 24 or more will probably get this done.  Lay it with the Patriots.   Our MATH MODEL projects a Patriot 35-10 win giving us an easy cover.

ASA 10* NFL TOP PLAY ON Philadelphia +4.5 over Green Bay, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

This is simply a huge game for the Eagles.  They are currently 1-2 on the season and can’t afford to drop to 1-3 and still feel they have a decent shot at the playoffs with Dallas currently rolling through the NFC East.  Their 2 losses came by 4 points @ Atlanta and 3-points vs Detroit so they are fairly close to being 2-1 or even 3-0.  On their final possession last week they had the ball in Detroit territory but were unable to get into FG position for the tie.  At Atlanta they had the ball inside the Falcon 20-yard line in their final possession but came up short on 4th down.  They’ve definitely had their chances.  If tonight’s game goes as we expect, it will be another very close game and we’re getting a full +4 to +4.5 points which would have covered or at worst pushed Philly’s first 2 losses.  Green Bay is 3-0 but they have been outgained in every game and they are getting outgained by an average of 42 YPG.  They have been the beneficiary of a +6 turnover ratio after just 3 games (1st in the NFL).  While their defense is vastly improved it’s not like we are talking about a top 5 defense right now.  As good as they’ve been, they are still ranked only 13th in total defense.  It’s the turnovers they’ve created that are the difference so far this year and we feel that simply doesn’t continue (+2 turnovers per game).  The offensive numbers have been poor.  They are 3-0 despite scoring only 19 PPG (23rd in the NFL).  They are ranked 28th in total offense and 28th in yards per play.  The most concerning offensive stat in our opinion is their 3rd down conversion rate is just 25% ahead of only Miami & NY Jets.   That ends offensive possessions early and is obviously a drive killer.  Philly, on the other hand, is at 56% rate on 3rd down which 2nd in the NFL only behind Dallas.  Right now we feel the Eagles are undervalued and Green Bay is overvalued right now.  Take the points with Philadelphia.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Under 48 Points - NY Giants @ Tampa Bay, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

The unit that has flown under the radar in the NFL more than any other this season is probably the Tampa defense.  Last year they were just terrible.  They ranked near the bottom of the NFL in most key stats including scoring defense where they allowed 29 PPG (31st in the NFL).  That has changed dramatically this year under new defensive coordinator Todd Bowles (Jets head coach last year).  While they are allowing a full TD less than last year (22.5 PPG) thus far, the defense is actually outplaying those numbers.  They have actually allowed ONE touchdown this season in 2 games.  That’s it.  San Fran’s offense looks very good after putting up 41 points last week on 550+ yards of offense last week @ Cincinnati.  A week earlier the Niners scored 31 on this Tampa team although the defense did its part holding them to just 17 (two pick 6’s for San Fran in the game).  Now they face a NYG offense that has scored 17 & 14 points their first two games.  We realize that Giants are changing QB’s to Daniel Jones but we also expect them to ease him in and keep the game plan fairly simple especially with all of their injuries at WR.  We don’t expect Jones to light it up in his first career start.  The Tampa offense has been nothing to write home about scoring 17 & 20 points in their two games.  While the NYG has struggled in the secondary, we’re not sure Jameis Winston is the QB to take full advantage of that.  With the Bucs favored by 6 here the oddsmakers are expecting a final score of 27-21.  We’d be extremely shocked if the Giants get to 20+ points and we anticipate Tampa in the mid 20’s.  Take the UNDER here.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Denver +8.5 over Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Packers are 2-0 however we’re not sure they deserve to be a TD+ favorite in this spot.  Their first two wins have come by 7 & 5 over division rivals Bears & Vikings.  Now playing an AFC team with a Thursday night meeting vs Philadelphia on deck in not an ideal situation for Green Bay.  The Packer offense is still a work in progress and we don’t see them pulling away from anyone right now.  They’ve been outgained by 127 yards in their 2 games.  They were very fortunate in last week’s win over the Vikings as the Minnesota offense tallied an impressive 7.0 yards per play while the Packers only put up 4.9 YPP.  This is a huge game for Denver as they cannot afford to drop to 0-3.  Unlike the Packers, the Broncos have outgained each of their first two opponents including Chicago last week (+99 yards for Denver).  While Denver’s offense seems to be in question, they put up 273 yards on 4.9 YPP and 21 first downs in their 1-point loss to Chicago last week.  Compare that to Green Bay’s offense that tallied just 213 total yards on 3.7 YPP and only 13 first downs vs the same Chicago defense a week earlier.  Where this total sits at 43 the expected final score is Green Bay 25, Denver 17 or so.  With Packer offense sputtering early in the year, we don’t expect them to light up a very solid Denver defense.  The Broncos have allowed just 5 of their last 23 opponents to top 24 points and we don’t expect Green Bay to do so on Sunday.  Tough to lay over a TD with GB’s sputtering offense vs a team that is in a do or die spot.  Take the points with Denver.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Indianapolis (pick-em) over Atlanta, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This line opened with Indy -3 which is where we thought it should be.  The public remains enamored with Atlanta as they get bet hard on a regular basis.  That has dropped this line down to -1 and now we’ll jump on the Colts.  We were on Atlanta last week as a home dog which was an entirely different situation at home off a loss @ Minnesota.  The Falcons picked up that home win over the Eagles and now they go on the road vs an AFC team playing their home opener.  While bettors still love the Falcons, the fact it since their Super Bowl appearance in 2016, the Bird have a SU record of just 18-16.  Indy comes in 1-1 having taken a very good Charger team to OT in the opener (loss) and then upsetting Tennessee on the road last Sunday.  While this team lost Andrew Luck at QB, his replacement Jacoby Brissett is more than capable especially with a very good running game and one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.  Brissett is completing 69% of his passes with 5 TD’s and just 1 interception on the season.  That Indy running game is averaging 185 YPG (2nd in the NFL) and they are facing a Falcon defense that was gashed for 172 yards in their only road game @ Minnesota.  The knew they could control the game on the ground (Minny won 28-12) so much so that they only attempted 10 passes the entire game.  The Falcons are 1-8 ATS their last 9 as road underdogs and with the Colts now just having to win at home, we’ll grab them.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Atlanta +2 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

Hard to say teams are in must win mode in the 2nd week of the season, however we can put the Falcons in that category.  After losing @ Minnesota to start the season (not surprising) they host the Eagles on Sunday night.  After this game the Falcons are on the road for 3 of their next 4 games so this game becomes extremely important.  In their loss in Minneapolis, the Birds are +9 first downs & +75 yards.  However, they turned the ball over 3 times and had a punt blocked as well.  All four of those miscues led to Minnesota TD’s which accounted to ALL 28 of their points.  Here they face a Philadelphia team that got down 17-0 at home – 20-7 at half – vs a Washington team that was a 10 point dog in the game.  They came back to win 32-27 but weren’t overly impressive in their opener.  The Philly defense allowed Case Keenum and the Skins to throw for 380 yards and 3 TD’s.  Now they face a much more potent Atlanta passing game, especially at home where QB Matt Ryan had a 118 passer rating last year compared to 99 on the road.  These two met in last year’s season opener in Philadelphia.  The Eagles scored a late TD with just over 2:00 minutes remaining to pull off the 18-12 come from behind win despite getting outgained by the Falcons.  Matt Ryan is 10-1 ATS in home openers and he gets another win here.  Take the points with Atlanta.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 53.5 Points - Kansas City @ Oakland, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

The Oakland defense had no answers for the KC offense last year allowing 75 points in their 2 meetings.  KC QB Mahomes torched the Raiders for nearly 600 yards passing and 6 TD’s in the 2 games.  The Chiefs played in Jacksonville last week and that total opened 52.5 which was only a point or so lower than this one despite the fact the Jags have a MUCH better defense when compared to Oakland’s stop unit.  Even though KC was facing a very good defense last week, they still put up 40 points on almost 500 yards.  They averaged over 8 YPP in the game.  However, the much maligned KC defense also gave up over 8 YPP to a Jacksonville offense that played much of the game without starting QB Nick Foles who was injured.  The Raider offense looked very solid last week putting up 24 points and averaged over 6.0 YPP on a solid Denver defense.  Their defense held Denver’s offense to only 16 points but that was misleading as the Broncos also averaged over 6.0 YPP in the game.  We see shootout here with neither defense slowing down the opposing offense.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh -3.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

the Steelers are coming off an embarrassing performance on Sunday night @ New England and we have a feeling they bounce back and play very well on Sunday in their home opener.  Roethlisberger has been unbeatable (8-0 ATS) when coming off a loss of 20 or more points in his career.   We suspect he’ll have a big day vs a Seattle defense that allowed Bengal QB Andy Dalton to shred them for a career high 418 yards last Sunday.  Seattle picked up the win in that game 21-20 but they were lucky to do so getting outgained by nearly 200 yards.  In the game the Bengals averaged 6.1 yards per play to just 4.8 for Seattle.  The offensive line looked shaky at best paving the way for only 72 rushing yards while Russell Wilson was only able to pass for 160 yards.  Looks like the Steeler defense will be a reprieve this week after facing Tom Brady and the precise New England offense last week.  We’ll give the Pittsburgh defense a break last week as they did look terrible but much of that we feel was the New England offense.  This is still a defense that finished 6th in total defense and YPP defense last year.  They’ll look much better this week and have a chip on their shoulder based on last week’s poor performance.  Seattle’s ATS numbers as an underdog are solid, however they have been terrible in their road openers going 2-12 SU / 1-12-1 ATS since 2005.  On the other side, when the Steelers are coming off a loss and favored by 3 or more points, they are 18-5 ATS since 2010.  This one sets up nicely for Pittsburgh and we’ll lay the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Houston +7.5 over New Orleans, Monday at 7:10 PM ET

Houston is too good to be getting a full TD in this game.  We’re talking about a playoff team from a year ago (11-5 record) that upgraded their weak spot (offensive line) by adding LT Laremy Tunsil, one of the best in the game.  They are facing a New Orleans team that might be a bit overhyped entering the season.  The Saints are also a notoriously slow starting team going 0-10 ATS and 1-9 SU in their first 2 games of the season (over the last 5 years).  They are also 0-5 ATS since 2015 as home favorites in September.  Last year if you remember, in the opener the Saints were favored by 10 at home vs a bad Tampa team with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB.  The Bucs won the game 48-40.  In their 2nd game, also at home, they barely held on to beat Cleveland by 3 points.  Now we have one of the better teams in the AFC getting a full TD?  We’ll take that.   Houston has a solid defense and with Deshaun Watson at QB, they can definitely score enough points to keep up with the Saints if needed.  It’s also been a very solid investment to take Monday Night underdogs during the first week of the season as they are 25-15 ATS since the late 80’s.  We think Houston gives the Saints all they can handle on Monday and an outright win wouldn’t be a surprise.  Houston and the points here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh +6 over New England, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

The Pats are notorious for their slow starts as they tend extend their preseason into the first few games of the regular season so to speak.  Head coach Belichick adjusts and tweaks early in the season until he finds the line ups he feels are most effective.  Last year the Patriots lost to Jacksonville & Detroit early in the season, two teams that ended the year with losing records.  A year earlier New England lost to both Carolina & KC, both games at home, early in the season.  They were favored in all of those games and were -7 or more in 3 of the 4.  Brady may take some time to adjust without top target Gronkowski in the line up and their offensive line could be a problem this year.  Starting LT Trent Brown left in the off-season and he is being replaced Isaiah Wynn who hasn’t played a snap yet in the NFL.  They are also starting a guard who is a career back up.  Pats will be good but it may take some time this year.  We are much higher on Pittsburgh than many.  We feel this will be an addition by subtraction situation with RB Bell & WR Brown, two problems in the locker room, now gone.  We’re hearing the chemistry for the Steelers is MUCH better right now than it was at any point last year.  Roethlisberger is back and he has plenty of weapons offensively.  We have the Steeler defense pegged as one of the best in the NFL this year (finished 6th in the NFL last year in YPG & YPP allowed).  Roethlisberger has been historically very good as an underdog with a 34-18-3 ATS lifetime record.  Even more impressive he has a winning outright record 30-25 SU in those games as an underdog!  We realize that New England has done very well vs Pittsburgh, however we think this is a different circumstance.  Take Pitt + the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Indianapolis +7 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

We think the betting market has overreacted to the loss of Andrew Luck for the Colts.  This line was at Chargers -3 and now has jumped to -6.5 and some at -7.  That’s move is too much in our opinion.  While Andrew Luck was very important to this team, the Colts are solid across the board.  They were in the top 10 in many defensive categories last year including scoring, total yards, yards per play, and yards per rush.  On offense Jacoby Brissett is a more than capable back up and we actually consider him a middle of the pack starter in the NFL.  He’s not great, but he’s not bad either.  He’ll be operating behind an offensive line that is definitely one of the best in the NFL.  They were ranked the 4th best rush blocking unit and 2nd best at pass blocking in the entire NFL last year by Football Outsiders.  All 5 starters are back up front so they will be very good again.  The LA Chargers are without their top RB Melvin Gordon and their home field advantage is very minimal at their make shift soccer stadium in LA which holds 27,000.  In fact, for many of their home games there are just as many opposing fans as Charger fans.  They were just 2-6 at home ATS last year.  Our word is the Colt players really like Brissett.  The locker room is very tight and we feel they will play on Sunday to show everyone this team was and is more than just Andrew Luck.  Expect an inspired effort from a very solid Colts team as they give the Chargers all they can handle on Sunday.  Take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Buffalo +3 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This line says that the Bills & Jets are rated basically the same and on a neutral field we’d have a pick-em game.  We disagree.  We have Buffalo rated as the stronger team and we’ll take the points here.  We’re getting a strong defensive divisional underdog which always makes us sit up and take notice.  Buffalo’s defense was outstanding last year.  They finished 2nd in the NFL in total defense behind Baltimore only.  They also finished 3rd in YPP defense and #1 in the NFL in pass defense.  The Bills split with the Jets last year but a closer look reveals they dominated despite the 1-1 record.  Buffalo won at NY 41-10 as an underdog last year and lost a tight game at home 27-23.  In those two games combined, the Bills had 820 total yards to just 447 for the Jets.  Their defense held NY to 3.6 & 4.7 yards per play.  Expect them to stifle the Jets offense again on Sunday.   Many discount the preseason but we do make note that Buffalo was 4-0 and looked very good.  They have very solid continuity with the entire coaching staff back this year.  The Jets, on the other hand, have a new head coach Adam Gase and new coordinators on both sides of the ball.  While we expect New York to be improved, there will be a transition period with Gase in charge.  There are a few technical points that back the Bills here as well.  First, the underdog has dominated this series winning 9 of the last 11 meetings OUTRIGHT.  Second, NFL division underdogs in week 1 of the season are a money making 17-4 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Our numbers have Buffalo’s chance of winning outright at more than 50%.  We definitely have to take the points with the Bills.

ASA BET ON: UNDER 47 Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears, Thurs 8:20PM ET - Several key indicators suggest Under here and our computer analytics predict just 43 total points being scored between these two rivals. The Packers have a new offensive system in place with new head coach Matt LaFleur calling the plays. QB Aaron Rodgers and a few other offensive starters saw limited or no preseason action so an adjustment period will take place. Several other questions remain surrounding the offense and this might be the worst place to play with an unfamiliar system. The Bears defense was one of, if not the best in the NFL last season. There are too many top rankings to list so we'll highlight a few key numbers: 1st in defensive efficiency, 1st in pass efficiency and 2nd in rushing defense efficiency. The Bears allowed just 17.6PPG last season, including holding the Packers to just 17-points on this field in mid-December. The Packers defense will be improved and should be up for the task of stopping a Bears offense that was ranked 20th or worse in offensive efficiency. Chicago's 25.6PPG scored last season is somewhat misleading as the defense score six TD's and gave them a short field to work with on many occasions. The Bears averaged just 16.5PPG in 2017 so we see their season numbers dipping back to the median or 23PPG which was the league average last season. It all adds up to a lower scoring game in the opener Thursday night. 

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Under 56.5 Points - New England vs LA Rams, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET

Rams defense has been great in the post-season.  They have allowed just 98 yards rushing in two games against 2 of the better running teams in the NFL (Cowboys & Saints).  They held both teams under 2.3 YPC.  During regular season Rams allowed 6 YPP but in playoffs just 5 YPP.  They held Dallas to 22 points and a very potent New Orleans offense to just 23 points last week on the road.  New England has shut down 2 of the better offenses down in the 1st half holding Chargers to 7 points and KC scoreless.  We expect Belichick will have a game plan to slow down the Rams offense early as well.  In those match ups the Pats got out to big leads and forced the opposing offenses to play hurry up and catch up which resulted in some higher scoring 2nd halves.  We don’t see that happening here.  We see a close game (6 of New England’s last 8 Super Bowls have been decided by 4 points or less) with the defenses controlling the tempo.  Another key here is we expect both teams to rely heavily on the run.  The Pats have averaged 41 carries per game in their 2 playoff wins while LA has averaged 37 carries per game in their 2 playoff games.  Both teams have solid kickers that can make them from 50+ in the dome so we think both will settle for FG’s rather than being overly aggressive and going for it on 4th down.  These two QB’s have only thrown 3 TD passes combined in their 4 post-season games (Brady 2 & Goff 1).  With think this game will start slow offensively with a low scoring first half.  If the game stays close as we expect, we just don’t see either team going wild on offense in the 2nd half.  We look for both defenses to play well and control the tempo and we’ll lean UNDER in the Super Bowl

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New Orleans -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET

The home team has won each of the last 5 NFC & AFC Championships for a perfect 10-0 SU mark (8-2 ATS).  We like New Orleans to do the same on Sunday.  Last week the Rams came out and shocked the Cowboys with their gameplan which was to run the ball right down their throat.  LA did so with great success rushing for 273 yards which took the pressure off of 3rd year signal caller Jared Goff.  That worked last week at home, however we don’t see LA dominating the ground game this week vs New Orleans who has the #1 rush defense in the NFL allowing just 3.6 YPG and only 78 YPG on the ground.  In their first meeting this year, the Saints held the Rams to just 92 YPG on the ground and we see a similar outcome on Sunday.  That will make Jared Goff have to win this game and we’re not sure he’s ready for that.  If it comes down to Brees vs Goff to win this one, we’ll take the veteran QB at home all day long.  Goff has faced 6 different Super Bowl winning QB’s (Brees included) in 12 games over his career.  The Rams are just 3-9 ATS in those games.  Goff also have very good numbers at home this year, but on the road they dropped off dramatically (68% down to 60% on the road / 2,737 yards passing at home down to 1950 on the road / 22 TD’s and 9 picks at home to just 10 TD’s and 9 picks on the road).  The Saints are a perfect 6-0 at home in playoff games under head coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees (14 TD’s and just 2 interceptions for Brees in those games).  They are veterans who have been here while Goff and head coach McVay are playing in just their 3rd ever playoff game.  We really like the way the New Orleans defense played down the stretch.  If you take out their meaningless season finale vs Carolina when they rested players having already clinched the NFC South, the Saint defense allowed just 14.5 PPG over their last 8 games.  Last week the New Orleans offense scored only 20 points, however they rolled up 420 yards so that score was pretty deceiving (outgained Eagles by almost 200 yards).  We expect them to put more points on the board this week while we like the New Orleans defense to at least slow down the Rams a bit.  The Saints won the first meeting here 45-35 and while we don’t expect quite the offensive output we saw in that one, we do expect a similar result with New Orleans winning by a TD or more.  Since 2012, no team that made the Super Bowl has played a road game.  It’s tough to win on the road in the NFL playoffs and we don’t expect the Rams to change the streak on Sunday.  Lay it with New Orleans in the dome. 

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New England -4 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR

The Chargers have become a very popular underdog in this game and we just don’t see it.  First of all, the situation is terrible for LA.  They are playing their 3rd straight road game and 2nd of back to back games on the east coast.  Secondly, it’s their 4th road game in 5 weeks.  Of course the Pats are rested and coming off a bye so huge situational advantage to New England.  HUGE coaching advantage to the Patriots as well.  Bill Belichick has more playoff wins than any coach in NFL history and it’s not close.  He has a record of 28-11 in the post-season while the coach with the 2nd most wins in the playoffs is Tom Landry with 20, a full 8-games less than Belichick.  Giving him two full weeks to prepare for a home game vs Anthony Lynn who is coaching in just the 2nd playoff game of his career gives the Pats a distinct advantage.  Last week the Chargers were in a beneficial situation playing a Baltimore team they faced just a few weeks earlier.  They knew the Ravens haven’t been a prolific passing team since QB Lamar Jackson took over, they also were able to see the funky rush offense that Baltimore implemented 6 weeks earlier.  Facing it already gave the defense a big advantage and they sold out to stop the run and it worked.  This is a much different situation having no idea the game plan that Belichick will employ here and we guess it will be a very good one.  Brady and company are VERY tough to beat at home where they are 8-0 this season (all wins but one coming by at least a TD) and they are 20-3 SU at home in playoff games with Brady under center.  The Chargers offense hasn’t looked all that great over the last month or so.  Philip Rivers looks a bit tired and his numbers have fallen off drastically.  He had a QBR of more than 80 in 6 of his first 12 games this year.  Since then he’s had 3 of his lowest QBR ratings for the season in the last 5 weeks and hasn’t topped 80 in any of those games.  He’s thrown just 5 TD passes in his last 5 games. His running game won’t be what it was earlier in the year as Melvin Gordon’s knees are both banged up and he isn’t nearly as explosive as he was earlier in the year.  Over their last 3 games the Chargers have averaged just 18 PPG on 239 YPG.  Last week they held on to win 23-17 but LA was gifted 3 turnovers by the Ravens and many of their points came on very short fields.  In fact, they scored only 1 TD in the game and their 3 of their 5 FG drives were 16-yards or less.  The Pats were the only team in the NFL with an undefeated home record (8-0) and they averaged 33 PPG at home never scoring less than 24.  They played 4 winning teams at home (Minnesota, KC, Houston, and Indy) and beat those teams by an average score of 33-23 and outgained them by an average of 78 YPG.  Defensively the Patriots got better as the year went on, just as they did last season.  They held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 17 points or less.  The only team that topped 20 points on New England in Foxboro this season was KC.  The Chargers were obviously very good on the road this year but this is the toughest situation they’ve faced as far as travel situation (3 straight road + back to back east coast) plus opponent.  LA pulled the road upset last week but that is highly unlikely this week.  In fact, teams that win in the wildcard round as an underdog are just 12-48 SU (21.39 ATS) the following week.  The Patriots get the home win and cover.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Dallas +8.5 over LA Rams, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET

We feel this is a very tough match up for the Rams.  Dallas has the better defense ranking 9th in defensive efficiency (Football Outsiders) while the Rams rank 19th.  Worse yet for the Rams, they struggle to stop the run allowing 5.1 YPC (last in the NFL) and they rank 28th in defensive efficiency vs the run.  That’s a bad match up when facing a very good running team like Dallas.  The Cowboys rank 8th in the NFL in rushing YPG and found their groove last week rushing for 164 yards in their win over Seattle.  Even more impressive, the Cowboy defense held the league’s top rated rushing attack to just 73 yards on 24 carries – less than 3 YPC.  With Todd Gurley banged up as well for the Rams, the Cowboys should have a solid advantage in the running game which will be a big key in this game.  LA only faced 3 teams this year ranked in the top 10 in rushing which makes their 5.1 YPC allowed even more concerning.  Those 3 games were vs Seattle (twice) and New Orleans.  They lost by 10 to New Orleans and both Seattle games went to the wire with LA winning close.  That looks like a precursor to what might happen in this game.   If you take a close look at the overall schedule this year, you’ll see that the Rams mopped up on the worst teams in the NFL but that wasn’t the case when they stepped up to play a good team.  In their games vs playoff teams LA was just 1-5-1 ATS (4-3 SU) with an average score of 32-32.  They outgained those teams by just 22 YPG.  Dallas also played 7 playoff teams and the Cowboys were 4-3 ATS (3-4 SU) with an average score of 17-20 but they outgained those teams by 43 YPG.  This line is a full TD (-7.5 in some spots) and the only teams the Rams beat by more than 7 this year were the Cardinals, Niners, Raiders, Lions, and Chargers.  You can see the only good team on that list is the Chargers.  Dallas, on the other hand, stepped up when they were tabbed a big underdog winning all 3 games OUTRIGHT this year when getting 7 or more points.  Since 2003, dogs of a TD or more in the divisional round have been a money making 19-11-1 ATS (63%).  Our eye test tells us Dallas was the better team over the 2nd half of the season (LA came out of the gate hot) winning 8 of their last 9 games with their only loss coming @ Indy a week after the Boys clinched the NFC East Title (can you say letdown spot – we were on Indy for a Top Game in that one).  The Rams ran through the first half of their schedule but lost to the Saints, Bears, and Eagles down the stretch.  On other thing to keep in mind is that while this is a home game for the Rams, you can bet the Cowboys will have more fans in the stands.  LA’s following is not great for home games.  Too many points here as we give Dallas a decent shot at the outright win.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Under 43 Points- LA Chargers @ Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

These two met just 2 weeks ago and the final score was Baltimore 22-10 landing well under this number.  The Raven defense held the Chargers to just 198 total yards on 3.7 YPP which was their lowest output of the season in any game.  LA put up big numbers at times vs lower tier defenses but weren’t great offensively when facing top notch defensive units.  In fact, in the 2nd half of the season the Chargers faced just 2 top 10 defenses (defensive efficiency) and they averaged just 16 PPG and 237 YPG.  In their final 2 games of the season they scored just 3 offensive TD’s total vs Denver & this Baltimore team.  Philip Rivers started the season on fire but down the stretch he fell off drastically with just 4 TD passes in his last 4 games.  He also had 3 of his lowest QBR ratings on the season in those final 4 games.  On the other side, we know Baltimore will run the ball which eats clock.  They have averaged 230 YPG and 45 rushes per game on the ground since Lamar Jackson took over at QB.  However their lowest numbers on the ground during that stretch were vs this Charger defense where they put up 159 yards on the ground.  With Jackson at QB, the Ravens have averaged 25 PPG, however in 5 of his 7 starts he’s faced defenses ranked 32, 31, 30, 28, and 26th in defensive efficiency.  The only top 10 defense he’s faced his this Charger unit (ranked 8th) and the Baltimore offense scored only 16 points in that game as the Ravens defense contributed a long fumble return for a TD late in that game.  Windy conditions are on tap in Baltimore today (15 MPH) which will affect both passing games.  We have 2 top 10 defenses here (Baltimore 3rd in efficiency & LA 8th) and we expect a similar game to what we saw 2 weeks ago.  A grinder that goes UNDER this number.   

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Over 48 Points - Indianapolis @ Houston, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET

This one sets up to be a shootout as both team’s strengths offensively are each other’s weakness defensively. We expect both teams to come out throwing which will lead to a higher scoring game. In the two meetings this year Luck had 103 pass attempts for 863 yards and 6 TDs. Watson had 80 attempts for 642 yards and 3 TD’s. Looking at the season averages, opponents completed 65% of their passing attempts versus Houston (18th worst). The Colts were worse yet, allowing foes to complete 70% of their attempts (31st). That ties into the Texans ranking 28th in passing yards allowed per game while the Colts are 16th.  That’s bad news for both team’s defensive unit’s as the Texan’s big play passing game averages 7.5 yards per pass attempt (7th), while the Colts average 278 passing yards per game (6th). In the two games this season these two teams averaged 850 combined yards and totaled 45 and 71 total points. In the most recent meeting these two teams combined 45 points, BUT they didn’t score on five separate trips to the red zone (Indy 3, Hou 2). Based on the average yardage in those two games and both teams’ yards per point offense, both average 14.3YPPT (8th and 10th best) this game should see 59 total points being scored.  BET OVER!

ASA's 10* NFL PLAY ON Cleveland +7.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

Aren’t you wondering why the oddsmakers have not made this line higher than it is? Shouldn’t the Ravens, who must win to get in be a TD chalk at home? The oddsmakers reluctance to move this to minus -7 tells us enough as they can’t afford to put it on a key number and get pounded by the sharps. The Browns with Baker Mayfield continue to play well with a 5-1 SU record their last six games. A win here gives the Browns their first winning season since 2007 which is a big deal for Cleveland. Cleveland dominated the Bengals last week in a 8-point win but the Browns outgained Cincy by nearly 300 yards. The Browns offense is averaging more than 7YPPL in 4 of their last six games and have averaged over 8YPPL twice. The Ravens win and get in but winning by this margin is tough to ask. Baltimore is 5-1 SU with Lamar Jackson at QB and they’ve done it with a dominating ground game averaging 219YPG their last six. The Browns though have a solid rush defense that has been much better of late. In the past three weeks the Browns have faced the Panthers and Bronco’s rush offenses that rank in the top 11 of the league in rushing yards per game. The Browns held the Panthers to just 96 yards rushing and Denver to 32. The Ravens were just favored by -8.5 points at home over Tampa who is far worse that the Browns at this point. Make the smart play here and grab the points.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Kansas City -14 over Oakland, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

The Chiefs need this game to lock up the AFC West.  A loss could send them all the way down to the wildcard.  We expect them to put up huge numbers offensively against a Raider defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in YPP allowed at 6.2.  These two met 4 weeks ago and KC put up 40 points and Mahomes had a huge day with 4 TD passes.  KC was up 17 in the 4th quarter in that game and the Oakland offense rallied and put up 33 points for the game.  While we anticipate similar numbers from KC here (40+ points) we do not think Oakland will play nearly as well on offense.  It’s a bad spot for the Raiders coming off a huge Monday night win over Denver in what might have been the final game ever in Oakland.  Now on a short week in a meaningless game on the road we look for the Raiders to just go through the motions as they play out the final game of the season.  The Raiders had a similar situation a few weeks ago when they upset Pittsburgh at home only to go on the road the next week and lose 30-16 to the lowly Bengals.  The Oakland offense has been OK at home this year but on the road they’ve done next to nothing.  They have not topped 23 points on the road this season and they are averaging just 15 PPG away from home this season.  Their last 4 road losses have all come by at least 2 TD’s and two of those losses were Cincinnati & San Fran, two of the worst teams in the league.  They have been held to 17 or less in 4 of their 7 road games.  That won’t come close to getting it done here against the potent and motivated Chiefs.  This one will get ugly.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Buffalo -5 over Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This line opened Buffalo -3 now up to -4.5 and even -5 at spots which we feel is justified. Miami was eliminated from playoffs last week as they couldn’t beat a bad Jax team at home losing 17-7 so we don’t expect much of an effort here.  We do feel Buffalo will be motivated here off a loss in New England and playing with revenge against the Dolphins from a loss a few weeks back. In that earlier meeting in Miami the Fins won 21-17 as -3.5 point favorites but were outgained 415 yards to 175 yards by the Bills and were outplayed in nearly every facet of the game.  Miami was a “fake” 7-7 heading into last week as they had been outgained in 9 straight games and they are minus 100 YPG on the season (Buffalo -5 YPG for comparison). The Bills are 3-4 SU their last 7 games but have outgained those 7 opponents by combined 578 yards (+82 YPG). The Dolphins are 30th in total offense (294 YPG) while Buffalo is 2nd in total defense (298 YPG) so don’t expect Miami to have any success offensively today. Miami is just 1-6 SU on the road with all 6 losses coming by at least 10 points. Will Miami be motivated in cold weather (30 degrees) now that they are out of playoffs? We bet not! Play on the Bills minus the points. 

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Seattle +2.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

As we stated a few weeks ago when we took Baltimore plus the points vs this KC team, we think the Chiefs are trending down late in the season.  After a red hot start, they are just 2-2 their last 4 games and their wins are not overly impressive beating a bad Oakland team 40-33 and then holding on to beat Baltimore at home 27-24 in OT.  After covering their first 7 games of the season, the Chiefs are now just 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 games.  Seattle is coming off an OT loss at San Fran (we were on the Niners) and they are not quite locked into the playoffs.  They are currently in the first wildcard spot and a win here would put them in for sure.  Seattle has been very solid at home with their only 2 losses coming at the hands of the Rams (by 2 points) when LA was playing at the top of their game and the Chargers, a game the Seahawks were at the goal line in the final minute with a chance to tie.  As a home dog this team is simply a big time money maker with an 11-1-1 ATS record in that situation.  Not only that the Seahawks have won 9 of those games outright!  On top of that, since 2003 they are also a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog in prime time (Sunday Night or Monday Night).  Want more?  With Russell Wilson as the starting QB the Seahawks are 13-2 SU at home in prime time games.  Now to the match up which favors Seattle in our opinion.  They are the #1 team in the NFL rushing the ball for 154 YPG while the KC defense cannot stop the run ranking 26th in YPG allowed on the ground and dead last in YPC allowed.  That opens up the passing game for Russell Wilson who’s often overlooked but having a fantastic season.  While the Chiefs offense is still very potent, the loss of RB Kareem Hunt is a big blow.  The last 2 games they’ve rushed for just 68 & 90 yards and their YPP production dropped off dramatically (5.5 & 5.3).  KC is trending down yet still favored on the road in a very tough venue vs a very good team.  We like Seattle to win this game at home so we’ll take the points. 

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Carolina +7 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

The Panthers home vs road dichotomy is quite drastic.  They are just 1-6 on the road losing by an average score of 27-20.  At home, however, Carolina is 5-1 winning by an average score of 31-23.  Their lone loss here at home was a 30-27 OT setback at the hands of the Seahawks.  Much has been made of Carolina’s free fall as they have lost 5 straight games but keep in mind it has been a brutal stretch with 4 of those 5 games on the road.  Now they are backed into a corner and in a must win spot.  Because Minnesota won on Sunday, the Vikings are currently sitting in the final wildcard spot and the Panthers must win here to remain a half game out if the wildcard.  A loss here pretty much ends their playoff hopes.  Despite their 5 game losing streak, the Cats have actually outgained 4 of those 5 opponents and going back further they’ve outgained 8 of their last 9 opponents.  This is the first time Carolina has been an underdog since early November.  In that game they were +3.5 @ Pittsburgh and now they’re getting nearly a full TD at home vs the Saints who come in overvalued in our opinion.  New Orleans is 11-2 and they’ve already clinched the division.  However, their offense has taken a noticeable step back over the last 3 weeks.  Last week they beat Tampa 28-14, however their offense only averaged 4.8 YPP vs a defense that ranks 31st in that category allowing 6.7 YPP.  Over the last 3 games the Saints have averaged 4.8, 3.6, and 5.7 YPP which is way down from their season average of 6.1 YPP.  Two of those games were against Tampa & Atlanta, two of the worst defenses in the NFL.  The Saints have been outgained in 3 of their last 5 road games topping only Tampa & Cincy in total yardage.  Drew Brees has started to slow down as well after a sizzling start to the season.  After recording a QB Rating of 110 or higher in 9 of his first 11 games, Brees has put up a QB Rating of just 71 & 90 his last two games.  Despite the difference in their records, these two have very similar overall YPG differential stats on the season with the Saints at +40 YPG (+0.1 YPP) and Carolina is +26 YPG (+0.2 YPP).  The dog has covered 7 of the last 8 in this NFC South rivalry and we call for another here.  We give Carolina a great shot and winning this one so we’ll take the points.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON San Francisco +4 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

We’ll back the ugly home dog here playing with short revenge against a team that has essentially locked up their spot in the playoffs. These two teams just met 2 weeks ago in Seattle and the Hawks won handily 43-16 as a 10-point chalk. But the final score doesn’t tell it all as the Niners racked up 452 total yards of offense and outgained the Seahawks by 121 total yards. The 49ers had some costly turnovers at key times including a 98-yard INT TD late in the game along with a 90+ yard kickoff return to set up an easy score for Seattle. The 49ers bounced back off that loss with a solid win over Denver who was in a must win situation last week. San Fran outgained the Broncos by 115 yards and have now outgained 4 of their last five opponents. Seattle is coming off a huge home win over Minnesota but did it with just 274 total yards and 60 yards passing. That game was just 6-0 late in the game too. Seattle has been outgained by 4 of their last six opponents and it catches up to them today. The Seahawks defense hasn’t been the “Legion of Boom” this season as they allow 6.3 yards per play which is 26th in the league. San Francisco’s defense allows just 5.4YPPL which ranks 11th best in the NFL. You’ll be surprised to know that the 49ers even have the better offense in this matchup with a unit that averages 5.7YPPL compared to Seattle’s which averages 5.6YPPL. Seattle takes this week off in preparation for their game next week against the high-profile Chiefs. San Fran will be highly motivated here, playing with revenge and will treat this like a playoff game. Underdog wins outright!

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Indianapolis -3 over Dallas, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We love this spot for the Colts.  Indy is coming off a very solid performance beating Houston on the road last week.  That was a Texans team that had won 9 straight games coming into last week.  Andrew Luck was fantastic with 399 yards passing against a very good Houston defense.  The Colts are in a must win spot at home here as they currently sit behind Baltimore for the final wildcard spot.  They have the same record as the Ravens at 7-6 but Indy is out right now because they lose the tie breaker.  Dallas is coming off 3 straight huge home games beating Washington, New Orleans, and then Philly in OT last week.  Their big division win over the Eagles pretty much locked up the division for Dallas (99% chance to win division) so they may have a bit of a letdown here.  In fact, NFL teams coming off an SU & ATS overtime win have been terrible investments with a 13-30 ATS record the last 4 seasons.  The Cowboys are also just 2-4 on the road this year and they were actually outgained in their 2 road wins.  Dallas relies heavily on their running game to set up their passing game as Dak Prescott is not a QB that can carry the load by himself in our opinion.  Not much is said about the Colts defense, but they are very solid, especially against the run.  They rank 8th in the NFL in YPG allowed on the ground and 6th in YPC allowed.  If they can slow the Dallas running game, the Cowboy offense is in trouble.  If Prescott is asked to win this game, we don’t see it happening.  We’ll take Andrew Luck in that spot every day of the week.  Indy’s head coach Frank Reich was with the Eagles last year so he knows Dallas very well.  So does the Colt’s defensive coordinator who was the Dallas LB coach last season.  The Colts are an undervalued team in our opinion and they catch Dallas in a great spot for a letdown.  We’ll lay the field goal

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Buffalo -2.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Which team allows the fewest YPG in the NFL?  Baltimore?  Maybe Chicago?  Nope.  The Bills are now the #1 defense in the NFL allowing just 290 YPG on 4.8 YPP.  That will be a huge problem for the Detroit offense today which has been terrible to say the least.  The Lions offense is averaging only 16 PPG over their last 7.  They were on the road last week at beat Arizona 17-3 with Detroit putting up only 218 total yards and actually getting outgained by the Cards who have the worst offense in the NFL averaging only 242 YPG.  Over the last 6 games this Detroit offense has averaged 4, 4.8, 5.2, 4.8 4.2, and 3 yards per play.  That’s simply terrible and they will have big problems again today against this staunch Buffalo defense.  The Bills are off a home loss to the Jets, however they ran 18 more plays and outgained NY by 120 yards.  Three turnovers were the key in that game.  The Bills are 0-2 the last 2 weeks and but have outgained those 2 opponents by a combined 360 yards!  They have outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents overall with 3 of those coming by at least 120 yards.  This team is undervalued right now because of that.  QB Josh Allen has put up 407 yards passing and 236 yards rushing the last 2 games!  The overall offensive numbers for Buffalo this year are not great but they are absolutely trending up on that side of the ball.  While they average just 292 YPG, they are outperforming that by a long shot as of late averaging almost 400 YPG over their last 4 games.  The last time they were held under 300 was against Chicago over a month ago and the Bills actually outgained the Bears in that game.  Buffalo is still playing hard and this is a big home game for them.  Detroit is on the road for the 2nd straight week, off a deceiving win last week, nothing to play for, and they have division rivals on deck (Vikings &Packers to close out the season).  It’s supposed to be cold in Buffalo today (35 degrees) with snow a possibility.  The road dome team will want nothing to do with this game today.  Lay the small number as Buffalo wins this one going away.

ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Over 47 Points - Carolina @ Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Both teams are coming off misleading finals last week and played in games that stayed below the posted totals. The Browns were in Houston last week and their game ended with just 42 total points. The Texans put up 29 but the Browns managed just 13. Cleveland racked up 428 total yards of offense but missed on several scoring opportunities with key turnovers. Had the Browns averaged their normal yards per point (16.3) in that game they would’ve scored 26 points. The Cleveland defense has gotten steadily worse as the year has gone on as they gave up less 20PPG average in their first three games but have now allowed over 28PPG their last seven games. Cleveland’s offense has moved the ball in their last four games with 388 yards, 427, 342 and 428 total yards. Carolina has the 27th ranked yards per points allowed defense at 13.8YPPT and is giving up 26PPG. The Panthers are coming off a deceiving game last week with just 17 points against the Bucs. Cam Newton threw 4 costly interceptions, including one in the redzone while the Bucs fumbled once going into score. Both had key penalties that cost them TD’s instead of field goals or that game would have been much higher scoring. The Panthers have a top 10 efficiency offense that averages 25.3PPG and 14.9YPPT. Look for both offenses to rebound after poor showings a week ago which leads to a shootout. The numbers say OVER the total!

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Jacksonville +6 over Tennessee, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

These two met earlier this year and the Jags were favored by 10 at home.  Now they are a 5.5 or 6 point underdog which means this game has swung more than 2 TD’s from the first meeting which is too much.  The Titans did win that first match up by a final score of 9-6.  The Jaguars seem to get an emotional boost last week when they replaced Bortles with Kessler at QB.  They beat a red hot Indy team that had won 5 straight games averaging 35 PPG over that span.  The Jax defense held the Colts scoreless on just 3.9 YPP.  Now they face a Tennessee offense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in YPG, YPP, and scoring (18 PPG).  Now the Titans are being asked to win by nearly a TD against a defense that shut them down to 233 yards on 4.1 YPP in the first meeting.  That’s going to be very tough in our opinion.  The Jags offense isn’t great obviously but we think the insertion of Kessler at QB can’t be any worse than Bortles.  He threw for 150 yards last week but more importantly didn’t turn the ball over and let his defense win the game for him.  That’s the recipe for success again tonight.  Jacksonville will get a boost with their top RB Fournette back this week after serving his one game suspension in last week’s win.  Despite their records, Jacksonville is +20 YPG with their 4-8 record while Tennessee is -30 YPG and sit at .500 (6-6).  Four of Tennessee’s six wins have come by 4 points or less and tonight will be no different.  If the Titans win, we expect a close game and we’ll give the Jaguars a decent shot to win the game outright.

ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh-3 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR

We faded Pittsburgh last week @ Denver and picked up a win with the Broncos.  The Steelers were in a terrible spot playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks and their second of back to back on the road.  On top of that they had to come from 16 points down late in their previous game @ Jacksonville to pick up a late win.  With all that, the Steelers actually played much better than we thought they would under those circumstances.  They outgained a solid Denver team by over 200 yards but turnovers were the key in that one.  Pitt fumbled at the Denver 1-yard line, fumbled at the Denver 20-yard line, threw an interception at midfield, AND threw a pick in the endzone in the final seconds as they were going in for the tying score.  Those mistakes prevented them from winning their 7th straight game.  We expect Pittsburgh to play very well at home off that loss.  They are a perfect 6-0 ATS their last 6 games following an outright loss and 30-15 ATS long term in that situation.  Despite that loss the Steelers are at the top of their game right now.  They have outgained 7 straight opponents by a combined 1,100 yards or by an average of 157 YPG.  Since losing at home to Baltimore in late September the Steelers have won 3 straight home games by margins of 24, 15, and 31 points.  The Chargers are 4-1 on the road, however 3 of those 4 wins have come against the Bills, Browns, and Raiders.  Their lone solid road win was @ Seattle and in fact the Seahawks, who are 6-5, are the only team currently above .500 that the Chargers have beaten this year.  In fact, the only other two teams the Chargers have played this year that are currently above .500 are the Rams & Chiefs and they lost both of those games by double digits.  LA will also most likely be without one of the key offensive weapons as RB Melvin Gordon injured his knee last week and is doubtful here.  Chargers not 100% and traveling east will be a tough spot.  The Steelers have played really well at home late in the season with a 43-14 SU record with Roethlisberger under center.  We expect Pitt take out their frustrations from last week here and roll over the Chargers.

ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Over 49 Points - Minnesota @ New England, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

There is some value on the OVER in this game in our opinion.  Simply looking back at recent games and recent opponents you’ll see what we mean.  Last week Minnesota played Green Bay and the total was 48.  The two teams scored 21 points in the first 16:00 minutes and had 28 at half.  They both blew some opportunities in the 2nd half and it stayed UNDER.  Three weeks ago Minnesota played Detroit (who ranks 22nd in offensive efficiency) and that total was 47.5.  Now they play a New England team that ranks 7th in offensive efficiency and just 19th in defensive efficiency yet the total is very near the same as the Vikings game vs Detroit.  Now let’s look at the Patriot recent schedule.  They played Tennessee a few weeks ago who is solid defensively but ranks 27th in offensive efficiency and that total was set at 47.  Last week the Patriots game vs the Jets had a total of 46.5 despite the fact the Jets had scored just 17, 10, 6, and 10 points leading into last week’s game where they scored just 13.  Minnesota is MUCH better offensively than both of those teams yet this total is set just a few points higher.  The Vikings have scored at least 20 points in every game but one this year.  New England has put up at least 25 points in 8 of their 11 games and at home they’ve scored 27, 38, 38, 43, and 31 points.  Contributing to this low total is the fact the Pats have gone UNDER in 4 straight games and Minnesota has gone UNDER in 3 of their last 4.  Now the oddsmakers have over adjusted for BOTH of these teams and the value is on the OVER.  Rain is a possibility on Sunday in Boston, however light winds are in the forecast which is key.  Both offenses should move the ball in this one and we take the OVER.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +3 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Bad spot for the Steelers playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks and coming off a come from behind win last week.  They trailed 16-0 @ Jacksonville late in the 3rd quarter and pulled a dramatic comeback scoring in the final seconds to win 20-16.  That was a huge double revenge game for them after losing @ Jacksonville in the regular season last year and then losing at home to the Jags in the playoffs.  Now they have to take another long trip west which will be tough off a win they really wanted.  Denver has some momentum coming off an upset win @ LA Chargers last week.  Despite their overall record of 4-6, the Broncos have outgained their opponents on a YPP basis and have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL already having faced KC (twice), LA Chargers, LA Rams, Houston, Baltimore, and Seattle.  They don’t have a great home record (2-3 in Denver) but their losses have come by 4 points to KC, 3 points to Rams, and 2 points to Houston.  The Broncos have been a fantastic home underdog over the long haul with a 30-16 ATS record since 1980.  On top of that, Pitt has had very little success as a road favorite on the west coast going just 2-12 ATS when favored on the road vs AFC West opponents.  These two teams have met 6 times since 2007 with the home team winning 5 of those games.  We see that happening again with Denver pulling the upset.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina -3 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC GAME OF THE WEEK

We like the value here with Carolina at home coming off 2 road losses.  The Panthers need this win as they’ve dropped to 6-4 after losing @ Pittsburgh & @ Detroit.  Laying only a FG is definite value in our opinion.  These two both just played @ Detroit with in the last few weeks and while Seattle was +3 in Detroit, the Panthers were -4.  Seattle’s most recent two road games they were +10 @ Rams and +3 @ Detroit as mentioned above.  That tells us Carolina should definitely be laying a bigger number here but off 2 losses it’s lower than it should be.  The Panthers have outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents and they are much better at home than they have been on the road this year.  They are 5-0 at home this year averaging 32 PPG while averaging only 20 PPG on the road.  Four of their five home wins have come by at least 8 points.  Cam Newton has been much better at home as well completing 67% of his passes with 8 TD’s and just 2 interceptions.  Seattle will be on the road for the 4th time in 6 games and their road wins have come against lower tier NFL teams (Arizona, Oakland, and Detroit).  When they’ve had to play better teams away from  home, they’ve lost.  These two have met 5 times since the start of the 2014 season with the home team covering 4 of those.  We expect another home team win and cover on Sunday.

ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Detroit +3..5 over Chicago, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET

Brutal spot here for Chicago.  They were flexed into the Sunday night game against division rival Minnesota and now must play a Thursday morning game on the road.  Thursday road teams are 2-9 SU this year because of the tough travel and short week and this game is even magnified more for Chicago based the late Sunday start and the A.M. Thursday start.  The Bears might be without QB Trubisky in this game as he injured his throwing shoulder vs Minnesota.  If he doesn’t play it will be Chase Daniel at QB.  We would probably rather have Trubisky play with a bum shoulder as he’s struggled this year on the road anyway.  His home numbers are far superior to his road numbers (16 TD’s at home and just 4 on the road.  Chicago has had an easy road slate facing Buffalo, Arizona, Miami, and Green Bay and they are just 2-2.  They barely beat Arizona on the road and their big win @ Buffalo was very deceiving as they only had 190 total yards but the Bills were a turnover machine in that game.  Detroit has been solid at home beating the Patriots, Packers, and Panthers here.  All 3 of those teams have beaten Chicago this year for what it’s worth.  After struggling on the road earlier this month Detroit has some momentum coming off their Sunday win here vs Carolina.  They also should be extra motivated after losing @ Chicago just 2 weeks ago.  That was just the 2nd time in the last 11 meetings that the Bears were able to beat Detroit.  So terrible spot for Chicago, coming off huge home win over Minnesota, now with a 1.5 game lead in division, we think they struggle here and Detroit gets the win.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 62.5 Points - Kansas City @ LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

We realize this is a very high total (highest ever) but we think the OVER is the play here.  We like both teams to get into the 30’s tonight.  KC has scored at least 30 in 8 of their 10 games while the LA Rams have done the same.  The Chiefs and their opponents have scored at least 55 points in 6 of their 10 games this year.  The Rams and their opponents have scored at least 56 points in 6 of their 10 games.  These two teams lead the NFL in yards per play offense averaging a ridiculous 6.9 YPP.  KC has played 2 of the top 8 YPP offenses this year and those games resulted in 79 points (vs Pitt) and 66 points (vs Chargers).  The Rams have played 3 of the top 8 YPP offense this year and those games have resulted in 90 points (vs Saints), 58 points (vs Chargers), and 58 points (vs Packers).  Defensively neither of these teams are very good.  They both rank in the bottom 10 in the NFL allowing 6.0 YPP.   Most might be tempted to lean under where the total is set so high but historically that has been a losing proposition.  In fact, since 2000 there have been 12 games with a total of 58 or higher and the OVER is 9-2-1 in those games.  The last two seasons there have been 3 games that have had a total of 58 or higher and the OVER cashed on all 3 of those.  Both teams push into the 30’s here and this one goes OVER.       

ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +2.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

The Bears have turned things around in Chicago and have the local fan base excited for the first time in years. The Vikings were the team to beat in the NFC North this year but got off to a rocky 1-2-1 start to the season so everyone wrote them off. But now the Vikings have righted the Ship so to speak with a 4-1 SU run their last five games. The only loss in that stretch was to the Saints who are the best team in football right now. In the loss to the Saints though the Vikings out-played, out-gained the Saints by over 150 total yards but two huge turnovers turned the tide in that game. On the road this season the Vikings have just one loss at the LA Rams and a tie in Green Bay. Chicago is a public team right now and the line reflects it. They have won three straight games but look who they’ve beaten. Detroit, Buffalo and the Jets who have a combined 9-20 SU record on the season and might be the three worst teams in the NFL. These teams have nearly identical offensive yards per play numbers and overall statistics but the Vikings have played a tougher schedule to this point. Consider this, the Bears were favored by 3-points at home in late September against Tampa Bay and now are laying the same in a huge NFC North showdown against a much better Minnesota team. Last year here the Vikings were favored by -3.5 points. Easy call with the Dog!

ASA 10* PLAY ON Seattle -3 over Green Bay, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

This is a REALLY tough spot for the Packers.  It’s their third road game in the last four week and long travel on a short week.  Not only have they been on the road a lot as of late, it’s been long travel.  They went to the west coast vs Rams, then east coast vs Patriots the next week, then home vs Miami, how west coast against on a short week.  That is as tough a schedule as you could map out.  Seattle is at home where they are playing just their 4th game this season.  They are 1-2 here at home but their losses were both close vs Rams and Chargers, two of the best teams in the NFL.  Seattle played toe to toe with the Rams on the road last week losing 36-31.  Seattle ran for 273 yards vs the Rams and LOST!  Speaking of that we expect Seattle to dominate the rushing game tonight as they lead the league in rushing at 152 YPG while GB allows 121 YPG (22nd in NFL).  That should open things up for Russell Wilson and the passing game.  Wilson has had a fantastic year completing 66% of his passes for an average of 7.96 yards per pass and 21 TD’s.  It could be argued Wilson is having a better year than Aaron Rodgers who’s completing just 60% of his passes for 7.32 yards per pass and 17 TD’s.  On the road, where GB is 0-4, Rodgers has completed under 60% of his passes with a QB rating of 98 (Wilson has rating of 110 this season).  Because of the short week travel situation, road teams can struggle on Thursday nights.  They are just 2-8 SU this year.  GB is in an even more drastic travel spot because of previous weeks.  Seattle has a solid defense and should be able to move the ball very well as discussed above.  The Pack will hang around for awhile but we like Seattle to wear them down and win this one by a TD or more. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Green Bay -10 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

This is an absolute must win for the Packers.  They now sit with a 3-4-1 record after losses @ Rams and @ Patriots.  They take the road again the next two weeks going to Seattle and Minnesota so a loss here might just end their playoff hopes.  The last two weeks Green Bay played quite well on the road vs two of the best teams & best offenses in the NFL.  They lost @ Rams 29-27 and @ Pats 31-17.  The New England game was closer than the final as GB actually had the ball deep in Patriot territory with the game tied at 17-17 when an Aaron Jones fumble changed the entire game.  Now after facing two of the most prolific offenses in the NFL, we look for the Packer defense to play much better against an anemic Miami offense.  The Fins rank 28th in the NFL in total offense averaging only 315 YPG.  Last week in their 13-6 win at home vs the Jets, the Dolphins tallied only 168 TOTAL yards and just 7 first downs.  They did not score an offensive TD.  With journeyman back up Brock Osweiler still under center we think they’ll struggle again this week vs a Packer defense that is under rated in our opinion.  The rank middle of the pack in most key categories which is better than most would think.  Aaron Rodgers should have a field day against a Miami defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in pass defense, sack percentage, and sacks per game.  Prior to last week’s game vs the hapless Jets offense, this Dolphin defense had allowed 38, 27, 28, 32, and 42 points their previous 5 games.  The Fins are 5-4 but have a negative point differential and have been outgained 7 of their last 8 games.  All of Miami’s wins have come by a single score while their losses have come by 10, 11, 19, and 31 points.  Miami has been a terrible road team winning just 1 of their last 9 road games with losses coming by 40, 31, 24, 19, 18, 16, 10, and 8 points.  The high temp in Green Bay Sunday will be in the low 30’s which is not ideal for a warm weather team.  We think the Packers roll over Miami on Sunday winning by 2+ TD’s. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Detroit +7.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH

Bears won @ hapless Buffalo last week 41-9 and a simple glance at the score did not tell the whole story.  Chicago had 190 TOTAL yards!  That’s it.  They scored 41 points with less than 200 yards of total offense.  Two defensive TD’s by Chicago in that game and 4 Buffalo turnovers made the difference.  The Bills actually outgained Chicago by 75 yards.  Detroit comes in a bit desperate after losing 24-9 @ Minnesota last week.  The Vikings were extra motivated in that one after outplaying the Saints on the stat sheet a week earlier but still losing at home.  The Detroit defense played well holding Minnesota to just 285 total yards and a defensive TD by the Vikes made this one look worse than it was.  This has been a tight series with 10 of the last 12 meetings decided by single digits.  The Lions have actually won 9 of the last 10 meetings and this is the first time Chicago has been favored in this series since 2012.  Detroit is 3-5 on the season however their 3 wins (Packers, Patriots, Dolphins) have all come against teams that beat Chicago this year.  On the flip side the Bears are 5-3 but 4 of their wins have come against the lower end of the NFL (Arizona, Buffalo, NY Jets, Tampa).  Their lone solid win was @ home vs Seattle but that was way back in mid September.  Detroit was +4.5 @ Minnesota last week and now they’re getting a full TD @ Chicago?  Matt Stafford is getting a full TD from Mitch Trubisky?  We’ll take it.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver (pick-em) over Houston, Sunday at 4:00 PMET - AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Hmmm?  We have a Houston team that has won 5 straight games vs a Denver team that has lost 4 of their last 5 yet the Broncos are favored.  Denver is coming off a 30-23 loss last week @ KC but they outplayed the red hot Chiefs in that game.  The Broncos outgained the Chiefs by 70+ yards in the game and outrushed them 189 to 49.  They’ve played KC to the wire twice this year losing by 4 and 7 points.  Denver is 3-5 on the year but 4 of those losses came to KC (twice), LA Rams, and @ Baltimore.  The Broncos are much better than their record and are now backed into a corner in a must win spot at home.  Houston is on a nice run but their wins have come against Miami, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Dallas and Indy with two of those games going to OT.   The home team should  have a big edge in the trenches here as Houston’s offensive line rates as one of the worst in the NFL (23rd in efficiency by Football Outsiders).  They will be facing a Denver defensive front that averages 3 sacks per game (5th in the NFL) with a sack percentage of 8% (also 5th in the NFL).  That will be a problem for a banged up Deshaun Watson who’s already been hit more than any other QB in the league.  By contrast, Denver’s offensive line ranks 4th in the NFL in efficiency and #1 in the league in run blocking.  That’s a good reason why the Broncos average 134 YPG on the ground.  The Broncos have played the MUCH tougher schedule to date (6th most difficult compared to Houston’s 32nd ranked strength of schedule) and despite their records (Denver is 3-5 & Houston is 5-3) we feel the Broncos are the better team, in a must win spot, and at home.  Football Outsiders efficiency ratings agree with us as they have Denver ranked as the 7th best team in the NFL and Houston ranked 12th.  Lay the small number with Denver.