#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -7 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 3 PM ET - Cincy’s path to this point has been less than impressive. They topped the Raiders by a TD at home in the Wild Card round despite getting outgained in the game on a YPG and YPP basis. Last week they went to Tennessee and won on a last second FG but that game was more or less gifted to them. The Bengals were dominated in the stats getting outgained by 1.4 YPP in the game but the Titans had 3 interceptions which killed any chance they had. The offense has been fairly pedestrian in those 2 games averaging 5.0 YPP and 5.4 YPP. They’ve scored just 1 TD in their last 18 possessions and their offensive line is a sieve allowing 11 sacks in the first 2 playoff games. The Bengals are +4 TO’s in those 2 games which is why the are still standing. KC, on the other hand, is rolling offensively averaging 7.4 YPP vs Pittsburgh and 7.6 YPP last week vs the #1 defense in the NFL. They scored 42 points in each of those 2 games and we see Cincinnati will have a tough time keeping up. Some may fear a possible letdown for KC after last week’s crazy win over Buffalo which many people felt should have been the AFC Championship game but we don’t think that happens. The Chiefs have won 11 of their last 12 games and their one loss was @ Cincy late in the year (lost 34-31) and blew a 28-17 first half lead. They will be focused in this one. We love the experience advantage with Mahomes and Reid playing at home in their 4th straight AFC Championship game vs a team, coach and QB who has never been this far in the playoffs. Teams on the road in the Championship round who won a road game the previous week are just 13-28 SU & 17-24 ATS as this is a very tough situation to be in. Mahomes is a perfect 8-0 SU in playoff games when Brady isn’t the opposing QB and will be very comfortable in this spot. KC wins and covers at home and moves on to another Super Bowl.

#315/316 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48 Points – LA Rams vs Tampa Bay, Sunday at 3 PM ET - These 2 met earlier this year and the total was set at 55 points and the final score was Rams 34, Bucs 24 and the 2 combined for almost 900 yards of offense. This total is set a full TD lower which is too large of an over adjustment in our opinion. Our numbers have this total at 51 so value on the Over. Tampa is the 2nd highest scoring home team in the NFL averaging 33 PPG and that’s including a game where they were SHUT OUT by New Orleans. If you take out that one game vs the Saints, the Bucs scored at least 30 points in every other home game and averaged almost 38 PPG. Last week they had 31 points vs the Eagles with over 5:00 minutes to go in the THIRD QUARTER but had a huge lead, called off the dogs and didn’t score again. The Rams lit up the Cards last week for 34 points and in a similar situation to Tampa, 28 of those 34 points were scored with still over 4:00 minutes remaining in the third quarter and because they had such a big lead the Rams were able to dial it back and run clock on offense. The Rams were able to run the ball effectively last week once they got the lead (38 rush attempts) but that may change this week. Tampa is very good vs the run (3rd in the NFL) so we look for LA to air it out. The strength of both offenses is their passing attack (TB #1 in YPG passing and LA 5th) and the weakness of both defenses is vs the pass (TB 22nd in YPG passing allowed and LA 21st). Tampa played a lot of up tempo offense last week vs Philly and we expect the same here. Both teams like to push the pace with the Bucs ranking 4th in pace of play and the Rams 11th. Tampa games averaged 51 total points this year and LA averaged 49 total points and this total is set lower than both. Weather looks good in Tampa and we envision this one as a game where each offense needs to keep up on the scoreboard. The projected final based on the spread and total is Tampa 25.5, LA 22.5 and we have both offenses topping those projections. Take the OVER in this one.

#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -3.5 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Cincy heads out on the road after their first playoff win in over 30 years last weekend. It was a rather unimpressive 26-19 win over the LV Raiders, who actually outgained the Bengals 385 yards to 308 yards and 5.4 YPP to 5.0 YPP. Two huge turnovers cost Vegas in that game as one turned into a Cincinnati FG and another took away the potential game tying TD late in the game at the Bengals 9 yard line. One thing that stuck out like a sore thumb to us in that game was Cincinnati’s inability to stop the run. The Raiders ran for 7.4 YPC in that game. Not a good trend now facing a very good running team (Titans 5th in the NFL at 141 YPG rushing) and Tennessee expect RB Henry back in the line up. On top of that, the Bengals lost 3 key DT’s in last week’s game, one is definitely out this week and the other 2 are highly questionable. The Titans not only get Henry back on offense, they will have both their top WR’s Jones & Brown in the line up for just the 8th time this season. The first 7 game they were able to team up, Tennessee was 6-1 SU. The Titans defense played outstanding down the stretch holding 6 of their last 8 opponents to 17 points or less and they allowed only 16.8 PPG in home games this season. We also give Tennessee a big coaching edge here with Mike Vrabel who is a perfect 8-0 SU & ATS when his team has at least 8 days of rest. Cincy’s coaching staff and players are new to the playoff scene and after a win last week where they didn’t perform all that well, they now take the road vs a veteran playoff team and coaching staff. Many are questioning the legitimacy of the Titans as a #1 seed but they have a very solid resume topping both of the top 2 teams in the AFC, the Bills & Chiefs, this year. Rested home teams in the Divisional round are 100-34 SU since 1988 and that continues here. We’ll lay the points with Tennessee.

#151/152 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 49.5 Points – Arizona vs LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The first 2 meetings had totals set at 51 & 54 points and both went Over. Now the total for this 3 match up is set lower than the first 2 despite the first 2 going Over? Hmm… In what would be a surprise to most, both of these defenses rank higher in DVOA (5th & 6th) per Football Outsiders than do their offenses. In their weighted DVOA, which doesn’t look at the entire season but more so how the teams have performed as of late, the Cards rank 18th offensively and the Rams 14th. Since WR Hopkins was lost a few weeks ago the Cardinals have averaged only 20.7 PPG over their last 4. Prior to QB Murray’s injury, the Arizona offense was averaging 31 PPG and has been far less dynamic since his return averaging just 23 PPG. The Rams defense has held each of their last 6 opponents to 24 points or less in regulation. Over the last 10 games LA is allowing just 22 PPG and that’s with their QB Stafford throwing FOUR pick 6’s! Take out those and the Rams are allowing only 19 PPG during that stretch. Both these teams know each other very well and with the 3rd meeting of the year, we’re expecting a lower scoring game. The projected final of this game is LA 27, Arizona 23 and our simulations have both teams falling just short of those numbers. Take the Under tonight.

#150 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -12.5 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - Pitts key numbers say they shouldn’t even be in this position. In fact, they say this team is a below .500 type team. The Steelers are the only team in the playoffs with a negative point differential and a negative YPP differential. When these two met a few weeks ago KC dominated and we don’t see anything changing here. The Chiefs won the game 36-10 and led 23-0 at halftime. They outgained the Steelers by nearly 1.5 YPP and by more than 4.0 yards per pass attempt. Pittsburgh rebounded after that loss to beat Cleveland (who looked like they had given up on the season) and Baltimore in OT (Ravens played back up QB). Pitt was outgained in 7 of their last 8 games and they simply don’t have the offense to keep up here. The KC defense allowed just 10 PPG over their last 6 home games and the Steelers rank 25th in offensive DVOA per Football Outsiders and aren’t particularly good at running (24th) or passing (24th). They were held to 20 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games while KC topped 30 in 4 of their last 5 games. Pitt will want to run the ball and control the clock to keep Mahomes off the field. That’s what they wanted to do the first game as well but when you get behind quickly (23-0 at half in first meeting) that plan goes out the window. We see a similar situation on Sunday night. Double Digit favorites in the Wild Card round are a perfect 5-0 ATS since 2001 and we see another ATS winner being added to that record. Lay it with the Chiefs.

#141 ASA PLAY ON Las Vegas +6 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Many feel this might just be a letdown spot for the Raiders coming off a Sunday Night OT win over the Chargers, a game they needed just to get to this point. However, it’s the playoffs and we don’t see a letdown coming in this one. Is it an ideal situation? No but it’s no different than a team playing on Monday night during the regular season with a turnaround game on Sunday. We don’t feel Cincy is in a position to be laying nearly a TD here. They have a young QB who has never been in the playoffs and a head coach who has never coached in the playoffs. The Raiders have been in a win or go home mode for weeks now and they’ve responded with 4 straight wins, including @ Indy and vs the Chargers last week. They are used to this situation. For the season Vegas has a better YPP differential (+0.5 to +0.4) and a better YPG differential (+25 YPG to +11 YPG) despite playing the much tougher schedule (LV SOS was 8th and Cincy was 30th). The Bengals did beat Las Vegas when they met this season but the 32-13 final score was very misleading. The game was 16-13 with less than 6:00 minutes remaining in the game. Neither team did much offensively both getting held under 290 total yards. Home favorites of -7 or less in the wildcard round have been terrible for nearly 20 years (14-28 ATS). We expect a tight game here with both offenses playing it conservatively (neither team has been in the playoffs as of late).

#481/482 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48.5 Points – LA Chargers vs Las Vegas, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This one is for all the marbles. The winner makes the playoffs and the loser is eliminated. Charger games average 54 total points which is the most in the NFL. This offense is clicking to say the least 28 points in each of their last 4 games. LA has gone Over the total in 5 straight games and 8 of their last 10. While their offense is one of the best in the NFL, their defense has been one of the worst ranking 30th in rushing defense, 23rd in overall defense, and 26th in scoring defense. Over their last 10 games only 1 team failed to reach 21 points on this LA defense and that was Denver last week with Drew Lock at QB. If you throw out the Chargers first 4 games of the season where the defense seemed to be playing pretty well, they have allowed an average of 29 PPG over the last 12. The Raider defense has decent overall numbers but their solid defensive performances have come vs poor offenses. Just in the last 10 games they’ve faced 4 offenses ranked 20th or lower in scoring (Washington, NY Giants, Denver, and Cleveland) and allowed an average of 17 PPG. In their other 6 games (over the last 10) Vegas has allowed 33 PPG including giving up 48 & 41 to KC, 33 to Dallas, and 32 to Cincinnati. LV is a middle to upper half of the NFL type offense in YPG (11th), YPP (9th) & PPG (18th) but we like them to have success at home here vs a defense that has struggled. Both teams pull out all the stops offensively in this win or go home game and it goes OVER the total in perfect playing conditions in Las Vegas.

#455 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New England -6 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is a tough week to handicap the NFL as we all know. Who plays their starters if they’ve already clinched a playoff spot? Which teams that are eliminated are still giving effort and who isn’t? Covid situation? We can look to past experience for this one and know that for the most part, Belichick plays his starters late in the season and still plays to win. That’s what we expect from the Pats. On top of that, they do still have something to play for as a win here + a Buffalo loss gives New England the AFC East title. If there is a team that could possibly tank it in this game it’s Miami. They were in the playoff race until last week and now have been eliminated with their 34-3 blowout at the hands of Tennessee. The Fins looked as if they were playing very well entering that game on a 7 game winning streak but they played a bunch of nobodies during that run including the Jets (twice), Texans, Panthers, and Giants. As soon as they stepped up in competition last week they were whitewashed in a game they had to win. They’ve taken care of business vs the teams they were supposed to beat covering 6 of their last 7 as a favorite. The Pats only 2 losses since mid October were vs the Bills & Colts, 2 of the best teams in the AFC. This is also a revenger as Miami won at New England in the season opener 17-16. The Patriots dominated the stat sheet in that one (+145 yards) and it was QB Jones first start of his career. The better team with motivation rolls here.

#477/478 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 45 Points – Kansas City vs Denver, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - KC has clinched the AFC West already but they do still potentially have something to play for. If they win and Tennessee loses @ Houston (unlikely) the Chiefs can move up to the #1 seed. We love the way KC’s defense is playing right now. The only 2 poor outings they’ve had over their last 9 games were vs the Bengals & Chargers, two of the better offenses in the NFL. In their other 7 games the KC defense has not allowed more than 17 points and they held 4 of those opponents to 10 points or less. The Denver offense has been terrible as of late scoring 13 or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Bridgewater is out at QB for the Broncos and his back up Lock has done nothing the last 2 weeks. They’ve scored 13 points in each of their last 2 games while totaling 158 yards vs Las Vegas and 319 yards vs the LA Chargers who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL (26th in scoring defense). In their last 5 meetings with the Chiefs the Broncos have scored an average of just 10 PPG and they haven’t topped 16 points in any of those games. Earlier this year they scored only 9 points @ KC in a 22-9 loss. Denver will struggle to score here vs this hot KC defense. The Broncos defense is the strength of their team to say the least. They rank 9th in total defense and 3rd in points scored allowing just 18 PPG. They’ve had some solid success vs Mahomes and company holding them to 23 or less in 3 of the last 4 meetings. The only chance Denver has is to make this a very slow paced type game which they are used to ranking 29th in the NFL in that category. KC may play fast early but if they get a lead they are known for milking the clock in the 2nd half (15th in 2nd half pace) in that situation. The Under is 5-1-1 the last 7 in this AFC West rivalry and we expect another one here.

#131 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland +3 over Pittsburgh, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Line value here on the Browns. They were favored by 3 in this game before officially getting eliminated from the playoffs and the line has moved to the Steelers now favored. This move is assuming the Browns will lay down here with no post-season ahead for them. We disagree. Cleveland would like nothing better than to knock of their AFC North rivals as Pittsburgh battles for a potential playoff berth. To add to their potential motivation this is also a revenger with Pittsburgh winning 15-10 on Oct 31st. The Browns are fairly healthy and the better team in this match up. Cleveland ranks 15th in the NFL in offensive YPP and 8th in defensive YPP. The Steelers rank 27th and 25th in those categories. Despite Pitt still being alive for the playoffs they have a -0.7 YPP differential while the Browns are +0.4 in that category. This is a bad match up for Pittsburgh’s defense as they rank 31st at stopping the run and they are facing a Cleveland offense that ranks 3rd and put up 219 yards on the ground vs Green Bay last week. They actually outplayed the Packers in Lambeau (6.2 YPP to 5.4 YPP for Packers) but had 4 turnovers. The Steelers have been a terrible favorite this year (1-5 ATS) while the Browns have been a money maker as an underdog (4-2 ATS). With the cold weather in the Steel City tonight, we like the underdog that can run the ball vs the favorite who can’t (Pitt 29th in rushing). Take the points.

#120 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -3 over Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Miami has won 7 in a row to get back into the playoff discussion but they’ve played a brutally easy for the season (29th SOS) and especially as of late. Those wins came vs Jets twice, Houston, NY Giants, Carolina, New Orleans and Baltimore. Minus the Ravens, the QB’s they’ve faced during this run were Ian Book, Zach Wilson, Mike Glennon, Cam Newton and Tyrod Taylor. They’ve played 15 games this yar and only 6 of those opponents are in playoff contention. The Fins are 2-4 SU in those games with one of those wins coming by 1 points vs New England in the season opener and all 4 losses coming by double digits. Average margin in those 6 games is -12.5 PPG for Miami. The Titans have the better record (10-5 – Miami 8-7) despite playing the much tougher schedule (2nd SOS). While Miami has struggled vs good competition, Tennessee has wins over Buffalo, KC, Indy (twice), LA Rams, and San Francisco. This situation sets up very nicely as well with Tennessee having extra time after beating SF on a Thursday while the Fins have a short week off a win @ New Orleans on Monday night. Tennessee’s defense should be able to make Miami one-dimensional in this game as the Fins can run (30th in the NFL) and Tennessee is very good at stopping the run (2nd in the NFL). Thus, this game could fall on the shoulders for Miami QB Tagovailoa and we don’t trust him on the road vs a defense that is playing well holding 6 of their last 7 opponents to 22 points or less. Lay it with Tennessee.

#479/480 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 47 Points – Washington vs Dallas, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - These 2 met just 2 weeks ago and the final score was a misleading 27-20 in favor of the Cowboys. The 2 had combined for just 35 points with under 6 minutes remaining in the game when Washington scored 2 TD’s in the last 5:09 including a pick 6. Dallas also scored a TD on a fumble return earlier in the game. The fact is the defenses dominated in this game. Dallas averaged just 4.1 YPP while Washington put up only 3.6 YPP. Neither passing game was effective with Dallas barely throwing for 200 yards on 5.4 yards per attempt and Washington throwing for only 124 yards on 3.2 yards per attempt. Washington has gone under the total in 80% of their games with the total set at 45 or higher (8-2 to the Under). Dallas is viewed by many as a team that is involved in high scoring games more often than not but the fact is they have topped this total (47) only once in their last 8 games. A big NFC East game with playoff implications (Dallas trying to win the division & Washington trying to stay alive in the playoff race) equates to a low scoring defensive game. Take the UNDER on Sunday night.

#473/474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Under 42 Points – Chicago vs Seattle, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Chicago offense has been brutal all season long ranking 29th in scoring, YPG, and YPP. They have topped 24 points only twice this season and are facing a surging Seattle defense that has given up 23 points or less in 8 straight including 20 last week vs a very good LA Rams offense. They rank 4th in the NFL allowing just 20 PPG on the season so we expect them to shut down Chicago’s offense. On the other side Seattle has really struggled offensively. They have scored an average of just 15 PPG (offensive points) since Russell Wilson returned from injury. As we mentioned above, Chicago’s offense ranks 29th in YPG well Seattle sits one spot lower at 30th in that category. Neither offense is good at extending drives ranking 30th and 31st in 3rd down conversion rate. These 2 have combined to play 28 games this season with only 8 going Over the total. We’re looking at possible snow and wind in Seattle on Sunday afternoon and we expect a low scoring grinder. Under is the play.

#456 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona "pick-em" over Indianapolis, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Great line value with the Cardinals here. We’re laying only 1 point (some spot are at pick-em) with Arizona at home. The line is short because Arizona is coming off 2 straight losses including one vs a bad Detroit team last Sunday. They outgained both LA (by 91 yards) and Detroit (by 61 yards). Last week they were shut out on downs at the Detroit 3, 9, and 30 yard lines. A week earlier vs Rams they were shut out on downs at the LA 14 & 37 and threw a pick at the LA 4 yard line. As you can see they’ve had their chances. On the other end, Indy beat a red hot New England team at home last week. Buy low (Arizona), sell high (Indy) here. To put this number is perspective, let’s look at some of Arizona’s home game spreads and some of Indy’s road game spreads. The Cards were favored by 3 points vs the Rams just a few weeks ago. They were also favored by -6 vs SF and -6.5 vs Green Bay. Indy was +7 @ Buffalo a few weeks ago, +3.5 @ SF, and +7.5 @ Baltimore. You get the point. Football Outsiders DVOA has these teams ranked dead even (8th and 9th) so no home field advantage is factored into this line. These 2 have played nearly identical SOS’s and Zona is +54 YPG and +0.4 YPP while Indy is +18 YPG and +0.1 YPP. Arizona has been the better team for most of the season and now because they’ve had back to back down games, we’re getting them basically as a pick-em at home. Cards win this one.

#451/452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points – San Francisco vs Tennessee, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Titans offense has been flat out bad since they lost Derrick Henry. Over their last 5 games they’ve averaged just 16 PPG and 3 of those games were vs opponents who ranked 22nd or lower in scoring defense (Pitt, Houston, and Jacksonville). They are one of the least explosive teams in the NFL averaging just 2.6 plays per game that average 20+ yards (fewest in NFL). On top of that Tennessee will be without 2 starting offensive linemen for this game. At the same time their offense went south, the Titans defense started to play very well. They have allowed an average of just 19 PPG over their last 6 games holding 5 of those opponents to 22 point or less. SF has been one of the top defenses in the NFL all season long ranking 7th in total defense and 9th in DVOA defense per Football Outsiders. Both are rush heavy teams which eats clock. Tennessee ranks 3rd in the NFL running the ball on 47.6% of their offensive snaps while San Fran ranks 4th in that category at 47.8%. Both teams are also slow paced ranking 25th and 27th in seconds per play. We expect this to be a defensive battle and UNDER is the play.

#337 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +7 over LA Rams, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Seattle is fairly healthy for this game, with the exception of WR Lockett, while we still don’t know who is in or out for the LA Rams due to Covid protocols. It looks like LA’s TE Higbee and a starting OL will most likely miss this one along with a few key defensive players. LA won the first meeting @ Seattle by 9 but that was the game QB Russell Wilson injured his finger and he sat out the entire 2nd half. Geno Smith took played a significant role for the first time since 2017 and Seattle still only lost by 9. Wilson is now back and getting healthier every week. The Seattle offense, which really struggled when Wilson first came back, has now put up 63 points the last 2 weeks. Their season long offensive stats are misleading with Wilson sitting out 3.5 games and not being fully healthy when he did come back. The defense has been flying under the radar but playing very well allowing 23 points or less in 8 straight games. They’ve won 2 straight including a win over a very good San Francisco team 2 weeks ago. The Rams seem to have gotten back on track after a 3 game losing streak but we’re not so sure. They beat Jacksonville 2 weeks ago in a win that doesn’t mean much as the Jags are terrible and obviously had internal problems. Last week they beat Arizona but were outgained by almost 100 yards in that game. The Cards then proceeded to lose @ Detroit by 18 points so maybe that LA win over Arizona wasn’t what it was made out to be. The last 6 games in this NFC West rivalry have all had a spread of 3 points or less. Now we’re getting a full TD with Seattle. For comparison’s sake, Seattle was +3 @ Green Bay in Wilson’s first game back from injury. This number is too high. The Rams overvalued losing 5 of their last 6 ATS as a favorite and 7 of 10 as a chalk this season. Seattle keeps this close.

#331/332 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44 Points – Minnesota vs Chicago, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Minnesota offense has to be licking their chops entering this game facing a Chicago defense that has struggled the last 2 weeks and is now down a number of key players. The Bears potentially will be without all 4 starting DB’s + 3 reserves with that unit. The top 4 are currently on the reserve Covid list and unless cleared by Monday they won’t be playing in this game. The defense has been struggling anyway allowing 29 or more points in 5 of their last 7 games including 78 the last 2 weeks alone. The only 2 offenses they were able to slow down were Detroit & Baltimore who rank 28th and 19th in YPP offense. Minnesota ranks 7th in the NFL averaging 5.9 YPP and they’ve put up at least 26 points in 7 of their last 8 games. Defensively the Vikings are headed downhill as they’ve given up at least 28 points in 4 straight games and 6 of their last 8. They are allowing a TD on almost 28% of opponents red zone plays which is the worst mark in the NFL. Chicago’s offense is coming around. They put up 30 points last week on Green Bay and averaged 6 YPP. A week earlier they scored 22 on Arizona. Those 2 teams rank 5th and 6th in the NFL in total defense. Minnesota ranks 29th in that category. We expect the Bears offense to play well and put up points here. The weather in Chicago looks very good for this time of year with temps in the mid 30’s and light winds at game time. Take the OVER in this one.

#324 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco -9 over Atlanta, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - While these 2 teams have similar records – SF 7-6 / Atlanta 6-7 – this is a mismatch which is why the line sits where it is. The Niners rate as the 8th best team in the NFL DVOA per Football Outsiders ranking 6th in offense and 8th in defense. Atlanta ranks dead last in the NFL DVOA and 29th in offense, 30th in defense. Atlanta has beaten the lower tier teams in the NFL (Jacksonville, NY Jets, NYG, etc…) but when facing solid teams, they’ve been smoked. They’ve played only 5 games (out of 13) this season vs teams that currently have a winning record. The Birds are 0-5 both SU & ATS in those games and they’ve been outscored 178-51 in those games for an average score of 35-10! All of those losses came by at least 15 points and they were not fluky losses as Atlanta was outgained 6.0 YPP to 4.4 YPP in those 5 games combined. SF is playing their best football of the year winning 4 of their last 5 despite being on the road 3 of the last 4 weeks. They’ve played the much tougher schedule facing 7 teams that are currently above .500 with 5 of those teams landing in the top 10 overall DVOA. Despite the difference in SOS, the Niners have a +0.5 YPP differential and a +28 point differential on the season while Atlanta is -0.5 YPP with a -108 point differential (2nd worst in the NFC ahead of only Detroit). Even in the 6 games Atlanta has won this year, they were outgained in 5 of those contests. San Fran is making a push for the playoffs and this is a crucial game at home. They are facing an Atlanta team that is much worse than their record and playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. We like the Niners to roll to a double digit win in this game.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 45.5 Points – New England vs Indianapolis, Saturday at 8:20 PM ET - We understand the Pats defense has been rolling allowing just 10 PPG over their last 7 but we believe those numbers are drastically over inflated based on competition. If we throw out their game @ Buffalo in which the weather was brutal (snow & 40+ MPH wind), the Patriots have faced just ONE team ranked in the top half of the NFL in total offense during that stretch. That was the Chargers who hit them for 24 points and averaged 6.4 yards per play. Tonight they face an Indy offense that is rolling scoring at least 30 points in 7 of their last 8 games. We think the Colts will put up numbers on offense here. Much is being made of the New England defense, however their offense has been very solid. They have scored at least 24 points in 9 straight if we throw out their game @ Buffalo which was discussed above. They averaged 33 PPG during that run. Both of these offenses rank in the top 8 in 3rd down conversion % and in the top 10 in red zone scoring attempts per game. We look for both of these teams to get to at least the mid 20’s which puts this over the total

#301 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -3 over LA Chargers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - KC playing as well as anyone in the AFC right now winning 6 straight and 8 of their last 10. After struggling early in the season, their defense has been outstanding allowing single digits in 4 of their last 5 games and they’ve allowed just 13 PPG over their last 8 games. LA won the first meeting of the season @ KC 30-24. However the Chiefs outgained the Chargers but had 4 turnovers in the game (0 for LA) including 3 giveaways inside the LA 40 yard line. While KC’s defense has kicked it in high gear, the Chargers defense has gotten worse as the season has progressed. They have allowed an average of 29 PPG over their last 9 games. LA really has very little to no home field advantage as many times their opponent has as many fans in the stadium as the Chargers do. They are just 3-3 SU at home with their 3 wins coming vs Pittsburgh, Las Vegas, and Cleveland, all teams that are currently .500 or below. The Chiefs are 3-2 SU on the road this year outgained their opponents 445 to 337 and outscoring them by an average of 30-24. The road team in this AFC West battle has won 8 of the last 10 meetings outright. As these 2 battle for the lead in the division (KC up by 1 game over LA) we’ll side with the experienced team, QB, and coach who is used to this situation. Lay the FG with KC.

#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arizona -2.5 over LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Rams simply aren’t playing very well. Prior to last week’s win over Jacksonville they had lost 5 straight vs the number by 62 points losing by an average of 12 points to the number. They are 5-4 SU over their last 9 games with their wins coming vs Houston, Jacksonville, Detroit, NY Giants, and Seattle with Geno Smith at QB. The first 3 listed rank 29th, 30th, and 31st DVOA on Football Outsiders. Anytime they’ve faced a team with a pulse as of late, they’ve come up short (losses vs GB, Arizona, SF, and Tennessee over the last 9 games). QB Stafford has a bad back and sore arm and it has showed in his performance as 5 of his 9 interceptions on the season have come in the last 4 games. The Rams also have Covid issues right now with starting RT and Center out along with starting RB Henderson. Arizona came off bye 2 weeks ago and they are much healthier then the Rams right now. QB Murray is back and he has his full complement of WR’s in the line up. With Murray at QB they have scored 30+ points in 7 of 9 games. Cards are 10-2 on the season (9-3 ATS) with their only losses coming by 3 points vs Green Bay and at home vs Carolina when Murray was out. That was in fact their last home game which was nearly a month ago. Arizona will be ready to make amends for that embarrassing loss. These 2 met in LA this year and the Cardinals were + total yardage, + yards per pass attempt, + yards per rush attempt and won the game 37-20. Arizona is 4-0 both SU & ATS vs division foes this year and they get another win and cover on Monday.

#114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland -2.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This game sets up very nicely for the Browns. They are coming off a bye and they lost @ Baltimore 16-10 the game before their bye week. In that game the Ravens ran 20 more offensive snaps (77 to 57) and still couldn’t pull away for a comfortable win at home. Cleveland was outgained in total yardage which would be expected when you run 20 fewer plays, however on a yards per play basis the Browns outgained the Ravens 4.6 to 3.9. Baltimore comes in a bit demoralized after losing @ Pittsburgh last week and the way they lost makes it really tough to bounce back. The Ravens scored a TD with only a few seconds left and decided to go for 2 points rather than kick the XP and go into OT. The Ravens offense has been really bad over the last month and a half or so. They have been held under 20 points in 5 of their last 6 games and over the last 4 weeks they’ve scored a TD on just 5 of 45 possessions (11%) which is the worst in the league during that stretch. It will be tough for them on offense again facing the 4th rated defense in the NFL on Sunday who just held them to 3.9 yards per play 2 weeks ago. Cleveland is as healthy as they’ve been since early in the season coming off last week’s bye. Both RB’s Chubb and Hunt are back. QB Mayfield was able to rest his ailing shoulder for the first time this season. The Browns are 6-6 on the season yet they’ve outgained their opponents 5.7 yards per play to 5.2 yards per play. Baltimore is 8-4 but they’ve been outgained 5.5 yards per play to 6.1 yards per play. The Ravens are not nearly as good as their record might indicate and we like Cleveland to win by at least a FG at home on Sunday.

#119/120 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 41 Points – Seattle vs Houston, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We have the 2 worst offenses in the NFL in this game with Houston 32nd in total offense and Seattle 31st. The Texans are averaging 13.7 PPG and they’ve been held to single digits in HALF of their games this season (6). Over their last 7 games the Texans are averaging 10 PPG and have been held to 14 or less 5 times. They are last in the NFL averaging 4.4 YPP which is the worst mark in the league since the 2018 season. Seattle’s defense should shut this team down. The Seahawks have been playing quite well on that side of the ball holding 7 straight opponents to 23 points or less. That includes very good offensive teams Green Bay, San Francisco, and Arizona. If they can hold those teams in check, they sure as hell can limit this Houston offense. While the Seahawks have been good defensively, they have not been so on offense. Russell Wilson is not close to 100% and it shows with this team scoring 0, 13, 15, and 30 points since he returned. Last week’s 30 point effort was VERY misleading as they scored on a 74 yard fake punt and a safety. So the offense only scored 21 but averaged just 4.8 YPP. Houston’s defense is the strength of their team ranking 10th in DVOA per Football Outsiders. Both of these teams are averaging 40 total points in their games this year and ALL of those games were vs teams that ranked higher in total offense. The teams have played 24 games combined this season and only 6 have gone Over the Total. There is a decent chance neither of these teams reach 20 points in this game and we like the Under.

#102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -3 over Pittsburgh, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Love this situation for the Vikings. They are coming off an embarrassing loss @ Detroit giving the Lions their first win of the season. Detroit scored on the final play of the game for the 29-27 win. The Vikes outgained the Lions 6.0 to 5.2 YPP in that loss. It was the 2nd straight setback for Minnesota after losing @ San Francisco a week earlier putting this team in must win mode at home on Thursday. Let’s not forget the 2 games prior to those losses the Vikings beat the Chargers on the road and the Packers at home. Pittsburgh is coming off a gigantic division 20-19 win beat Baltimore by 1 point when the Ravens decided to go for the win and a 2 point conversion in the final seconds but came up inches short. Now going on the road on a short week after a very physical division battle is not ideal. Prior to squeaking by Baltimore the Steelers tied Detroit at home, lost @ LA Chargers (outgained by 3.1 YPP!), and lost 41-10 @ Cincinnati. The Steelers were +6 in their game @ LA Chargers and +4 @ Cincinnati and now +3 @ Minnesota, a team that ranks ahead of both those teams DVOA? Last week’s loss @ Detroit is giving us nice value here with the Vikings. Despite Minnesota’s 5-7 record (Pitt is 6-5-1), the Vikes rank 11th overall DVOA (12 spots ahead of Pitt), are better defensively (DVOA - 17th to 20th), better offensively (DVOA - 8th to 20th) and they’ve played the tougher schedule to date. Minnesota has a + point differential while Pittsburgh, despite being 1 game above .500, has a point differential of -42. The Minnesota defense was missing their top DB last week with Patrick Peterson out in Covid protocol but he returns this week. The Vikings are receiving tons of criticism in the Minneapolis area after their loss last week and now they are in must win mode on Thursday. We think they come out and play very well and pick up a win & cover over the banged up Steelers.

#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo -2.5 over New England, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Pats come into this one with a 5-0 SU record on the road but they played perhaps the easiest road schedule in the NFL thus far. Their opponents? Houston, NY Jets, Atlanta, Carolina, and the LA Chargers. The only legit competition in that group was the Chargers and New England was outgained 6.4 YPP to 4.7 YPP in that contest but benefited from a pick 6 in that 27-24 win. Their other 4 road opponents have a combined 15-33 record. Going into Buffalo on Monday night will be their most difficult game this season. The Bills are coming off a 31-6 win @ New Orleans on Thanksgiving so they’ve had extra time to get ready for this one. The Bills have had a few stinkers this year losing at home to Indy and getting tripped up @ Jacksonville, but the numbers still show they are the top team in the AFC. They have a YPG differential of +114 and a YPP differential of +1.3, both tops on the NFL. New England’s defense has been on a very good run over the last month but 3 of the 4 offenses they’ve faced during that stretch rank 22nd or lower in offensive DVOA. As good as the New England defense has been, the Buffalo defense is #1 in the NFL allowing just 4.6 YPP compared to 5.1 for the Pats. During their current 6 game winning streak, the Patriots have been a big time beneficiary in the turnover department with a +13 margin in those 6 games alone. They probably can’t count on that tonight facing a Bills team that is 4th in the NFL in TO margin. NE QB Jones has had a great rookie season but after facing a number of lower tier opponents on the road this year, now he takes on the #1 defense in the NFL in one of the toughest venues in the league. We expect him to struggle. All 7 of Buffalo’s wins this year have come by at least 15 points and we like them to cover at home on Monday.

#457/458 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 47.5 Points – Denver vs Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - People continue to view this KC offense as a juggernaut and it just isn’t anymore. They are averaging fewer PPG, YPG, and YPP this season compared to last. The Chiefs have topped 20 points only twice in their last 7 games. Now they face a division opponent that is locked in defensively. The Broncos have allowed 17 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games including vs Dallas and LA Chargers, two of the best offenses in the NFL. For the season Denver is giving up just 17.8 PPG which ranks them 3rd in the NFL. They are allowing only 2.2 red zone trips per game which is tops in the NFL On the other side of the ball the Chiefs defense has poor numbers overall. Those season stats are not indicative of how this KC stop unit is playing right now. After allowing 32.6 PPG and allowing opponents to score points on more than 57% of their possessions through the first 5 games, KC’s defense has allowed a miniscule 9.5 PPG and allowed opponents to score points on just 27% of their possession over the last 6 games. They should limit a Denver offense that is averaging just 20.7 PPG on the year. The Broncos are one of the slowest paced teams in the NFL and will want to control the clock here. Denver games are averaging only 38 total points on the season and KC’s games are averaging just 35 total points over the last 6 games once their defense started to play well. Looks like a windy night in KC (15+ MPH) which will have an affect as well. Under is the play here.

#463 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Chargers +3 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Buy low, sell high spot here. The Chargers are coming off a loss @ Denver last week in a game that set up nicely for the Broncos who were coming off a bye. Cincinnati has had 2 straight impressive looking wins beating the Raiders 32-13 and Steelers 41-10. However, let’s not forget that their 2 games prior to those wins, the Bengals lost at home 41-16 vs Cleveland and lost @ NY Jets. Cincy has the better record in this match with a 7-4 mark compared to the Chargers 6-5. We have to take into account the strength of schedules of these 2 teams to put those records in perspective. Cincy had played the 31st rated schedule so far this season including games vs Chicago, Jacksonville, NY Jets, and Detroit – all ranked 25th or lower in NFL team DVOA with the last 3 listed ranking 29th, 30th, and 31st . Despite that, the Bengals lost 2 of those games vs the Bears & Jets and barely squeaked by the Jags by 3 points. The Chargers have played the 2nd most difficult schedule in the NFL to date. Despite the schedule disparity, LA has the better YPG differential (+33 to +5) and the better YPP differential (+0.5 to +0.3). LA has been a solid road team with a 3-2 SU record this year and 21-10-3 ATS as a road dog the last 3 seasons. We expect LA QB Herbert to have a big day vs the 25th ranked Cincinnati pass defense. Take the points.

#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +5 over Dallas, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Dallas is currently going through a Covid issue which will affect the team negatively this week. We’re not quite sure how much as of this writing but we know some key pieces to the puzzle are out. HC McCarthy and several assistants will not be able to participate in this game. We know the Dallas starting RT is out and we’re expecting more to come. WR Jones might return but he still is nowhere near 100% as he’s still under the weather. Dallas has had to conduct virtual practices this week so the prep for this game is out of whack as well. That will be a problem for a Cowboy offense that is playing the best defense they’ve faced in quite a while. The Saints rank 5th in the NFL DVOA defense and the last 5 teams Dallas has faced have defenses ranked 17th or lower and 4 of the 5 rank 24th or lower DVOA. Dallas has lost 3 of their last 4 games despite facing those defenses. This team is trending down. We realize the Saints have lost 4 in a row and are reeling as well. New Orleans has outgained 2 of those 4 opponents and 2 of the losses came by 2 points. They are also making a change at QB with a healthy Taysom Hill taking over which should give this team some life. He played very well in his 4 starts last season completing 71.9% of his passes during his four-game starting stint for 834 yards, 4 TDs and 2 interceptions. He also ran the ball 39 times for 209 yards and 4 touchdowns. New Orleans HC Payton has never lost 5 straight games and his record as a dog is a money making 47-25 ATS – including 7-2 ATS as a home dog since 2015. Off a terrible home performance vs the Bills on Thanksgiving Day, we like New Orleans to bounce back and keep this one close if not win outright.

#274 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +1 over Seattle, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We really like the way Washington is trending right now. They’ve won 2 straight games and actually outgained their last 4 opponents. Two of those games came vs Green Bay & Tampa Bay, two of the very best teams in the NFL. 3 of those 4 games were on the road. Their most recent home game was 2 weeks ago vs Tampa and Washington won the game by 10 points outgaining the Bucs by 47 yards. It was an ideal spot for Tampa as they were coming off a bye and had lost @ New Orleans heading into their week off. Needless to say a very impressive win for Washington. Their defense was top notch last year but struggled the first part of the season. They have really tightened up on that side of the ball limiting their last 4 opponents to an average of just 286 YPG. That includes holding Tampa to 273 yards and Green Bay to 304 yards. That’s bad news for a Seattle offense that is struggling to say the least right now. The Seahawks have scored a grand total of 13 points the last 2 weeks combined. Russell Wilson is obviously not 100% and can’t perform at the level he is used to. Since his return Wilson has led Seattle on 20 offensive possessions and they’ve scored 1 TD. Last week they lost 23-13 at home vs Arizona with Colt McCoy at QB for the Cards. The Hawks have lost 5 of their last 6 games with their only win coming vs Jacksonville. They’ve also been outgained in 9 straight games. On the season the Seahawks are getting outgained by 103 YPG (worst differential in the NFL) and they rank 30th in total offense and 32nd in total defense. We like Washington to win this game at home.

#267/268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 49 Points – Minnesota vs San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Both these offenses are humming right now and our projections have this one landing in the 50’s. The Vikings have scored at least 27 points in 4 of their last 5 games including putting up 31 last week vs a Green Bay defense that had allowed more than 21 points in any of their previous 5 games. San Francisco has scored 30 or more in 3 of their last 4 games including 31 two weeks ago vs a very good Rams defense and 30 last week vs a Jacksonville defense that had allowed 6 points to Buffalo 2 weeks prior and 16 offensive points to Indy in their previous game. Both teams rank inside the top 10 in offensive DVOA per football outsiders. Minnesota has gone over the total in 4 of their 5 road games this year with an average of 58 points scored in those games. The Viking defense has allowed at least 27 points in 4 of those 5 road games. San Fran at home has gone over in 3 of their 5 games with an average point total of 49 per game. The Niners defense has solid overall numbers this season but vs some of the better offenses they’ve faced they have given up points (Green Bay 30, Indy 30, and Arizona 31). This one has the makings of a back and forth game with each team needing to keep up on the scoreboard. Take the OVER

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 over NY Giants, 1 PM ET - The Giants just fired their offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and have a short week to prepare for the surging Eagles who have won 2 straight and 3 of their last four. The key in this game will be the rushing attack of the Eagles. Going into last week’s game the Saints had the #1 ranked rushing defense in the NFL allowing 73RYPG but the Eagles pounded them on the ground for 242-rushing yards on 50 carries. Philadelphia has morphed into a solid running team with over 176 rushing yards in four straight games, over 216 in three of those. If the Eagles were able to rush for over the #1 ranked Saints defense last week, what will they do against a Giants rush defense that is 23rd in the league allowing 120RYPG and 4.4-yards per carry. These two teams are even in terms of defensive DVOA but the Eagles rate much better offensively with the 7th best DVOA offense compared to the Giants 27th ranked unit. Going back to 2016 the Eagles have beaten the Giants 9 of ten times and eight of those wins came by 3 or more points. Back Philadelphia as a short road favorite.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 45.5 Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - Let’s not overreact to the Bills game last week when their defense looked atrocious against the Colts for a couple reasons. First off, the Colts offense is playing quite well right now behind a great O-line and RB Jonathan Taylor. Secondly, the Bills were #1 in the NFL in defensive DVOA and still rank 1st in yards per game allowed 2nd in passing D, 9th in rushing D and 2nd in points allowed per game at 17.6. On average it takes opponents 16.3 yards gained for 1-point which is 9th best in the NFL. Buffalo is also 1st in yards per play allowed this season at 4.7. After a horrible showing last week, we are betting the Bills defense shows up here. The Bills aren’t the only team in this game with a fantastic defense. The Saints rank 5th in defensive DVOA, give up 5.4YPPL (11th), 15.7 yards per point (13th) and rank 10th in points allowed per game at 21.8. The Saints offense is banged up, down to their 3rd string QB and could be without Kamara again here. Last week the Saints had less than 100-total yards of offense going into the 4th quarter against the Eagles and 7-points. The 22-points and yards gained in the 4th quarter came after that game was out of reach. The Bills offense has looked pedestrian at best in two of their last three games with 6 and 15-points against the Jaguars and Colts. They did put up 45-points versus the Jets, but New York has the worst defense in the NFL. The bet here is Under.

#477 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +11.5 over Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - Giants are coming off a bye and playing much better as of late. They’ve won 2 of their last 3 games with their only loss coming by 3 points @ KC. They outgained the Chiefs 5.4 YPP to 4.8 YPP in that game and that tight loss on the road is looking more impressive after KC demolished Las Vegas and handled Dallas in the 2 weeks after. They have been a big time money maker as a road underdog going 19-4 ATS their last 23. This year they are 3-1 ATS when getting points on the road. NYG QB Jones has been better on the road in his career than he’s been at home. This year in his 4 road games he has a higher completion percentage, higher yards per pass attempt, and a higher QBR away from home. WR’s Golladay and Toney are finally healthy and RB Barkley may play here. TB is coming off back to back losses getting topped New Orleans by 9 and Washington by 10. Brady put up his 2 lowest QBR ratings in those 2 games which included 4 interceptions. Those were vs pass defenses that rank 13th and 29th DVOA. The Giants defensive strength is vs the pass ranking 11th in the NFL DVOA so they match up very well with a TB offense that struggles to run (27th in rush offense). These 2 faced off last year and it was tight to the end with Tampa winning by just 2 points despite getting outgained by the Giants. NYG may not win this one but they’ll put up a fight and say within 11 points.

#473 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas +2.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not going to overreact to one big offensive performance from KC. They walloped Las Vegas last week but prior to that this team was averaging only 17 PPG their previous 5 games. This team still is a shell of last year’s Super Bowl team. The Chiefs YPP differential is -0.3 and their defense ranks 31st in YPP allowed at 6.1. That’s a bad match up vs a Dallas offense that is 1st in the NFL averaging 6.3 YPP and 1st as well in scoring at 31.6 PPG. KC is 0-9 ATS their last 9 home games (regular season) including 0-5 ATS this year losing by an average of 8 PPG to the spread. Dallas has been the better team all season long. They are the only team in the NFL ranked in the top 5 in both offense and defense DVOA. Their defense ranks 3rd DVOA vs the pass which matches them up very nicely with the Chiefs in this game. The Cowboys are also 3rd in the NFL in 3rd down defense with opponents converting only 32% of the time. That should keep Mahomes on the sidelines and the Dallas offense on the field in this one. KC continues to be overvalued based on their previous seasons. The better team is getting points here and we’re not passing that up. Take Dallas.

#312 ASA TOP PLAY ON Atlanta +7.5 over New England, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - The Patriots are quickly becoming a public team after winning & covering 4 straight. Around 75% of the tickets this week have come in on New England and the sportsbooks we track and that has pushed the line from a -4 opener to a full TD. Too much in our opinion and we’ll take the value on Atlanta. The Pats have been favored by -7 or more just twice this season vs the Jets & Texans. In their lone road game as a heavy chalk, New England had to come from down 22-9 @ Houston to squeak by with a 25-22 win. They have been a road favorite of a TD or more just twice since the start of last season struggling to beat a bad Houston team this year and doing the same vs the NY Jets last year (won by 3). Atlanta is coming in off an embarrassing performance @ Dallas losing 43-3. We love backing teams off blowout losses, especially as home underdogs. If they are facing a team off a blowout win (New England won by 38 last week) that’s even better. A buy low – sell high spot for sure. Prior to their loss @ Dallas, the Falcons had won 4 of 6 games with their losses during that stretch coming by 4 & 6 points. Since their 2 blowout losses to open the season vs Philly and @ Tampa Bay, the Falcons have adapted nicely to new head coach Arthur Smith’s systems on both sides of the ball. Since those opening 2 losses, the Falcons are 4-3 SU with 6 of those 7 games being decided by a TD or less (Dallas last week being the only outlier). Last week Atlanta was +8 @ Dallas and now they are +7 at home vs the Patriots? We’ll take the value with the home team on Thursday night.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -3.5 over San Francisco, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - We like the better team here coming off a very deceiving loss last week. The Rams played host to the Titans, who have now won 5 straight games, and dominated the stat sheet. They lost the game but LA was +1.2 YPP, +1.8 YPC, and +0.6 yards per pass attempt. Two huge turnovers did them in with QB Stafford throwing a pick 6 and another that was returned to the 2 yard line and led to TD. The Rams seem to have very little home field advantage (3-2 record) so on the road, where they are 4-0 this season, we can pick up some nice value. San Fran, on the other hand, hasn’t won a home game yet this season (0-4) losing those games by 2, 7, 12, and 14 points. Last week’s loss was very telling. The Niners were in must win mode at home vs Arizona, who was playing without their QB Murray or their top WR Hopkins. Cardinal back up QB McCoy shredded the SF defense completing 85% of his pass attempts in that game. Arizona outgained the Niners by 100 yards en route to a 31-17 win. That same Cardinal team with McCoy at QB was dominated at home yesterday by Carolina losing 34-10 and they were held to just 3.2 YPP. Rams HC McVay is fantastic off a SU loss with a 16-6 spread mark in that situation. SF, on the other hand, has been a big time money burner at home with a 13-22-1 ATS mark since Shanahan took over as head coach. The 49ers have 3 wins this season vs Detroit, Chicago, and Philly who have a combined record of 7-20. When they’ve had to step up in class SF’s hasn’t been able to get it done. On top of that, this is a double revenger for the Rams who were favored in both games last year vs San Francisco and lost. We like LA tonight.

#249 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Ask yourself this question. Why is Tennessee only favored by 2.5 to 3 points in this game? This is a Titans team that just won 4 straight games as an underdog vs the Bills, Chiefs, Colts and Rams. And now they face the Saints a team that lost at home to Atlanta last week and are playing their back up QB? Fishy we say. The fact is the Saints match up really well vs this Tennessee team. New Orleans is #1 DVOA defense vs the run which is a huge part of the Titan’s offense, with our without Derrick Henry. Last week, their first game without Henry, the Titans rushed for only 69 yards on 2.7 YPC vs the Rams. Despite their win Tennessee was a bit fortunate in that game with Rams QB Stafford throwing a pick 6 and another interception that was returned to the 2 yard line and led to a TD. Tennessee was actually outgained by 1.2 YPP in that win. New Orleans QB Siemian has actually played quite well in this game and a half of work this year. He’s thrown for over 400 yards with 3 TD’s and no picks. While they did lose to Atlanta by 2 points this year, let’s not forget this Saints team beat Tampa Bay 36-27 a week early with Siemian getting most of the snaps. New Orleans is 2-0 ATS this year when coming off a SU loss and head coach Payton is 32-20 ATS in that role. The 7-2 Titans are a bit overvalued right now as their YPP differential is -0.3 and they are getting outgained in total yardage on the season. They won their first game without Henry due to LA turnovers. Now they face a motivated New Orleans team with a top notch defense off a loss. Sean Payton and the Saints are 8-1 ATS their last 9 as a road underdog winning 7 of those games outright. Take the points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 40 Points – Chicago @ Pittsburgh, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - This should be a low scoring, grinder type game. The strength of both teams are their defenses. The Chicago defense is coming off 2 subpar performances but those games were vs TB (2nd DVOA offense) and San Fran (7th DVOA offense). We expect them to bounce back tonight vs Pittsburgh offense that is 26th in scoring averaging just 18.9 PPG. The Steeler offense has topped 24 points only one time the entire year. Chicago’s offense is averaging just 14.8 PPG since Fields took over at QB (15.4 PPG for the entire season). They have topped 20 points just twice this year, once vs Detroit (24 points) who ranks 31st in the NFL in points allowed and vs SF (22 points) who ranks 25th in points allowed. The SF game was last week and that Niner defense is definitely trending downward after giving up 30+ to Arizona yesterday with their back up QB. Chicago ranks dead last in the NFL averaging 4.4 YPP and Pittsburgh is 25th in that category at 5.2 YPP. Facing an aggressive Steeler defense that ranks 10th in the NFL DVOA won’t be a recipe for success for the Bears struggling offense. These 2 have combined to play 15 games this season with only 3 going over the total. Chicago games are averaging 39 total points and Pittsburgh games are averaging 39 points so while this total seems low, it’s really not. The projected score based on the point spread and this total is right around Pittsburgh 23.5, Chicago 16.5. Again that seems low but that means both teams would have to eclipse their season average in points scored (Pitt by 4.5 points and Chicago by 1 point). We just don’t see that happening here. Take the Under tonight.

#467/468 ASA PLAY ON Over 49.5 Points – LA Chargers vs Philadelphia, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Two of the fastest paced teams in the NFL square off here with the Chargers ranking 2nd averaging 1 play every 25.8 seconds and Philly ranking 5th running 1 play every 26.5 seconds. Needless to say we’ll see a lot of offensive snaps in this game which gives us more opportunities to score points. Both of these offense rank in the top 12 in YPP gained and each offense matches up very well with the opposing defense. LA likes to throw the ball with QB Herbert and the Philly defense ranks dead last allowing opposing QB’s to complete almost 75% of their pass attempts. Philadelphia is a solid running team (4th in rushing YPC) and the Charger defense sits dead last in the NFL allowing 5.1 YPC. Both teams are very solid on 3rd down (11th and 13th in 3rd down conversion rate) which keeps drives alive. On the other side of the ball, neither defense is good at getting teams off the field on 3rd down with the Chargers ranking 28th & Eagles 26th in defensive 3rd down conversion rate. The Eagle defense has had 2 solid performances since mid September and their opponents in those games were Detroit who ranks 31st in DVOA offense and Carolina who ranks 29th. In their other 4 games since September 19th this defense has allowed 41, 42, 28, and 33 points. The Chargers defense played well early in the season however over their last 3 games they’ve allowed 42, 34, and 27 points. The weather looks good in Philly on Sunday with highs in the 50’s and light winds. This final score projects in the 25-24 range and we like both offenses to top those numbers. Over is the play.

#455 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +6.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Vikings have a record of 3-4 but they are better than their record. Their 4 losses have come by a combined 15 points with their biggest loss coming by 7 points. They were ahead or tied in the 4th quarter in 3 of those losses. Minnesota currently has a + point differential along with a positive YPP & YPG differential. Baltimore is coming off a bye and a blowout loss @ home vs Cincinnati. While many may think this is a great spot to jump on them, we think the Ravens are overvalued. 3 of their 5 wins have come by 1 point vs KC (not as impressive as it once seemed), winless Detroit by 2 points, Indy in OT in a game they trailed by 16 in the 4th quarter. They also beat a bad Denver team and their lone impressive win was vs the LA Chargers. The Raven defense ranks 30th in the NFL in YPP allowed and they are giving up 65 more total yards than they were last season. Dating back to the 2016 season, Minnesota is 21-10-1 ATS when coming off a SU loss – they loss at home vs Dallas last weekend. We project this one to go to the wire. Getting nearly a TD with Minnesota is a solid value.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – NY Jets @ Indianapolis, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - This under sets up nicely. The Jets offense has been poor all season averaging 16 PPG. Prior to last week’s offensive outburst vs Cincinnati (34 points – highest of the year) the Jets were averaging 13.3 PPG and had topped 20 points only once all season. Now they face the 5th rated defense DVOA and we expect a big drop off in this game. Last week NY QB White threw for over 400 yards and 3 TD’s. We expect a huge regression now that the Colts have 1.5 games of film on him. There is a reason White was drafted in 2018 and his first start in the NFL was last week. He’s only played in 2 games in his career. The Colts defense has played a number of higher ranked offenses this season (Rams, Titans, Ravens) and given up some points. However, they lower third of the NFL offenses they’ve faced this year (Texans & Dolphins) they’ve allowed an average of just 10 PPG. NYJ offense ranks 28th DVOA so they are in the same tier as those 2 teams. On offense we expect Indy to run the ball tonight. The Jets defense ranks 23rd DVOA at stopping the run and Jonathan Taylor is one of the best in the biz. After leading for much of the game last week and relying to heavily on QB Wentz, who threw 2 terrible interceptions late in the game and in OT, the game plan will be run heavy. We also look for Indy’s offense – one of the slower paced teams in the league (25th) – to control the clock and shorten this game. This total is tied for the Jets highest number of the season. Their game vs Atlanta whose defense (30th DVOA defense) is nowhere near as good as Indy’s was 46 as well. That game finished 27-20 so 1 point Over when the NYJ kicked a FG with 17 seconds remaining in the game. This total is an overreaction to what the NYJ offense did last week with a QB nobody had seen play. Under is the play here.

#277/278 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 52 Points – NY Giants vs Kansas City, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - KC is coming off their worst offensive performance in years putting up only 3 points @ Tennessee last Sunday. They had chances in the 2nd half pushing inside the Tennessee 30-yard line in every possession after halftime and came away with just 3 points. To put that in perspective, the Chiefs have played 63 games (regular season & playoffs) since the start of the 2018 season. They had been held to 10 points or less just ONE other time (before Sunday) during that stretch while scoring at least 35 points 19 times. Because of last week's performance, we're looking at KC's lowest total of the year on Monday. You think KC’s offense will be out to prove a point on Monday primetime TV after scoring 3 last Sunday? We do. The Chiefs should put up plenty of points vs a NYG defense that has allowed at least 27 points in 4 of their 7 games this year. The only teams that did not reach 27 vs this defense were Carolina, New Orleans, and Atlanta all ranked 24th or lower in YPP offense and 20th or lower in offensive DVOA. On the defensive side of the ball KC continues to be one of the worst in the NFL. They are 27th allowing 29 PPG, 30th in 3rd down conversion % allowed, and dead last allowing 6.6 YPP. The Giants have played a number of upper tier defenses over the last month including New Orleans, Carolina, and the LA Rams. They’ll take a big step down here. The Giants also expect 2 of their top offensive weapons back with WR’s Toney and Shephard getting the green light. The weather will be near perfect almost no wind. This should be a shootout.

#267/268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44.5 Points – Jacksonville vs Seattle, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Everyone watched the offensive debacle between New Orleans and Seattle on Monday night (Saints 13-10 win) and that has pushed this total lower than it should be. The total in that game was 42 and that was with Seattle facing one of the best defenses in the NFL (Saints 6th in YPP allowed and 3rd in DVOA defense), a poor offense (Saints 27th in YPP gained), and a team that ranks dead last in the NFL in pace. Now we’re getting almost the same number vs a Jacksonville defense that ranks dead last in DVOA defense & 31st in YPP allowed, a decent offense (Jags 13th in YPP gained) and a team that ranks first in the NFL in pace. Seattle’s offense hasn’t been great but they’ve faced 3 straight very solid defensive teams (Rams, Steelers, and Saints). Geno Smith and company will look much better vs a Jax defense that allows 420 YPG (30th in the NFL). Same with Jacksonville coming off a bye and facing a Seattle defense that ranks 31st in the same category allowing 428 YPG. This is the lowest total of the year for Jacksonville and the 2nd lowest for Seattle just 1 point lower than their game on Monday night as we mentioned. The weather last Monday night was poor (rain and wind) but looks perfect for Sunday. We’re comfortable with both teams topping 20 points in this game and we like the OVER.

#258 ASA PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis -2.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Revenger from earlier this year for the Colts. They weren’t playing well at the time and lost 25-16 @ Tennessee. Indy has since started to play much better winning 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Baltimore in a game they led by 16 in the 4th quarter. This is a rough spot for Tennessee. They are coming off back to back huge home games beating both Buffalo & KC. Now going on the road for the first time in 3 weeks. Their 3 road games haven’t been overly impressive. They lost at the NYJ giving the Jets their only win of the season. Their other 2 roadies were wins @ Seattle in OT (Tenn was down 24-9 at half), and they beat a bad Jacksonville team. They were outgained drastically in each of those games with a -1.2 YPP differential @ Seattle, -1.3 @ NY Jets, and -0.9 @ Jacksonville. We still feel the Titans are overvalued. They are 5-2 on the season yet their YPP differential is -0.4. DVOA agrees with us as they have the Titans ranked 20th in the NFL right now (Colts are 15th). Indy actually averages more YPP offensively (5.8 to 5.6) and allows less defensive (5.8 to 6.0). The Colts definitely have the better defense in this game and their offense is starting to come around. QB Wentz has been solid since getting over his early season injury throwing 8 TDs and no picks his last 4 games. RB Taylor has kept the offense very balanced averaging 138 total yards per game his last 4. With a record of 3-4 and a loss already @ Tennessee, this is a must win for the Colts at home. Lay it.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay +6.5 over Arizona, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Overreaction here to GB’s potential players being out. This line has moved all the way from -3 to -6.5 in favor of Arizona. WR Adams has not been ruled out and might play here if he has back to back negative Covid tests. Remember he did not test positive, he was simply in close contact. Even if he doesn’t play, the Packers have found a way to be successful without him in the lineup (6-0 with Adams out). This is one of the best teams in the NFL and capable of winning this game regardless of the situation. Let’s put this in perspective. This Arizona team was just favored by 6 at home vs SF a few weeks ago with rookie QB Lance making the first start of his career (Zona won the game 17-10 but they were outgained). Now they favored by a half point more vs Aaron Rodgers? Ridiculous. The last 3 QB’s the Cards have faced were Houston’s rookie Davis Mills, Cleveland’s injured Baker Mayfield, and SF’s rookie Lance. Talk about a huge step on for this defense on Thursday. GB is more than capable of running the ball effectively with RB’s Jones and Dillon vs an Arizona defense that ranks 31st allowing 5.0 YPC. If they can do that and open up play action for Rodgers, this game will be close throughout. The Cards have played 3 home games this year and 2 of those went to the wire vs SF (with rookie QB) and Minnesota (Vikes missed potential game winning FG as time expired). Their only easy home win was last Sunday vs a terrible Houston team. Green Bay’s defense ranks 7th in the NFL allowing 20.8 PPG and since their season opening debacle @ New Orleans, they’ve allowed an average of just 18 PPG. We don’t see Arizona running away with this game. GB has been tabbed an underdog just 3 times in their last 25 games and the highest number during that stretch was +3 this year @ SF a game GB won. Getting almost a full TD with Aaron Rodgers at QB is worth a take. Green Bay is the play.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +4 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Would not be comfortable laying points on the road with this Saints offense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in a number of key categories. They rank 29th in YPG, 25th in YPP, and they have the worst passing YPG differential in the NFL at -105. Since catching the Packers off guard in week 1, the Saints are 2-2 and have been outgained in all 4 of those games (wins vs Washington & New England). In those 4 games vs marginal competition (NE, Wash, Caro, and NYG) New Orleans has been outgained by 387 total yards. All 4 of those teams rank in the bottom half of the NFL in total offense and all have losing records. Their wins vs Washington (by 11 points) and New England (by 15 points) are a bit misleading. Versus Washington the Saints scored on a hail mary pass at the end of the first half which gave them a lead at half when it should have been tied. Take that away and they win by 5 points vs a bad Washington team. Versus New England they scored on a pick 6 and they were +3 turnovers but got outgained on a YPP basis by the Pats. New Orleans is coming off a bye week but let’s remember Seattle has had some solid rest as well having 10 days between their games vs Rams & Steelers (most recent game) and now an extra day as well playing on Monday night. Not a big advantage for New Orleans in our opinion. QB Geno Smith has had more time to acclimate himself as the starter and he played pretty well last Sunday vs one of the top defenses in the NFL. He completed 71% of his passes for over 200 yards and 1 TD vs the Steelers in Seattle’s 3-point loss in OT. The defense isn’t great but they did step up last week holding Pittsburgh to 4.9 YPP. They won’t have to be great here vs this New Orleans offense. Rain and wind expected in Seattle tonight and a low scoring game is expected (total at 41.5). We expect a big effort from Seattle in prime time in their first home game since losing Russell Wilson. We anticipate a close game throughout with Seattle having a chance to pull the upset. Take the points.

#468 ASA TOP PLAY ON Tampa Bay -11.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is a terrible match up for the Bears. They like to establish the run as their passing attack is remedial at best. Chicago is the only team in the NFL with less than 50% of their yardage coming from the passing game. The problem here is, it’s really tough to run on the Bucs. They are allowing just 54 YPG on 3.4 YPC. It’s gotten to a point where teams don’t even try to run on Tampa as just 27% of opposing plays have been on the ground – least in the NFL. If Chicago can’t run, they are in huge trouble. Their offense has zero chance of keeping up in this game. The Bears rank last in the NFL averaging 4.3 YPP. They are averaging just 16.3 PPG which is 30th in the NFL and they’ve scored only 10 offensive TD’s in 6 games this season. Rookie QB Fields has played been the starter for 4.5 games now (came in at halftime of Cincinnati game) and he’s only completing 53% of his passes for an average of 138 passing yards per game. He’s thrown only 2 TD passes this year and the Bears as a whole have thrown only 3 TD passes which is the fewest in the NFL. They have topped 300 total yards just once in their last 5 games and that was vs a bad Detroit defense. Those offensive numbers won’t get it done here. Tampa will score points. They are averaging 32.5 PPG and at home they are putting up a remarkable 41 PPG this season. They’ve been a double digit favorite their last 2 home games and blasted Atlanta 48-25 and Miami 45-17. They’ve had extra time to get ready for this having played in Philadelphia on Thursday night. This is a revenger as they lost to Chicago last year in the infamous Brady lost track of what down it was game. He takes that stuff to heart and you can bet he wants to blast Chicago here. Double digit favorites in the NFL have been a successful 7-2 ATS this season and as long as this one stays under 14 points we’ll lay it as Chicago’s offense won’t be able to score enough to get this cover.

#455/456 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 47.5 Points – Washington vs Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Green Bay has been an Under team this year with 2 overs & 4 unders. This is a spot to jump on the Over in our opinion. The Packers are averaging just 24 PPG this season but they’ve played a very tough slate of defenses with 5 of their 6 opponents ranking in the top 12 in defensive DVOA. The only bottom half defense they played this season was Detroit and Green Bay put up 35 points in that game. Their opening game vs New Orleans (just 3 points) has also skewed their overall offensive scoring numbers. Here they face a Washington defense that ranks 31st in total defense and dead last in scoring defense allowing 31 PPG. They are allowing opponents to score points on 52% of their drives (last in the NFL) and they have been unable to get off the field on defense allowing a ridiculous 58% conversion rate on 3rd down (last in NFL and league average is 40%). Washington has allowed at least 30 points in each of their last 4 games while GB has averaged almost 27 PPG over their last 4 facing high end defenses Chicago, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and San Fran. Unless they completely implode, GB will score 30+ here. Can Washington score enough to get this one Over the total? We think so. They have scored at least 21 points in 4 of their last 5 and the Green Bay defense is the worst in the NFL in the red zone allowing an amazing 15 TD’s on 15 opponent trips inside the 20 yard line this year. Washington games are averaging 54 points this season and with the GB offense finally facing a bad defense, this has the makings of a high scoring affair. We like the Over here.

#276 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee +6.5 over Buffalo, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bills are overvalued right now with their string of blowouts + a win over KC last weekend. Let’s remember that, while impressive, their last 4 wins have come vs Miami (with Brissett making first start this year at QB), Washington (with QB Heinicke making 2nd start), Houston (with rookie Mills at QB) and KC (who turned the ball over 4 times in the game to 0 for Buffalo & KC ain’t the KC of last year as they are 3-3 on the season). This is also a terrible spot for the Bills. They focused much of their off-season on beating KC in that game last week after losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game last year. That was, in essence, their regular season Super Bowl. Now they go on the road in a game the opener was set at -3 and it’s been bet up to nearly a TD. The Tennessee offense is getting healthy again as WR’s Jones is expected back tonight. RB Henry has rushed for nearly 4,800 yards in his last 40 games and they are very dangerous offensively if they can mix up the run and pass. We think they’ll do that tonight vs Bills team that has solid numbers vs the run but they’ve faced 4 rushing attacks ranked 19th or lower this season. This Tennessee coaching staff knows something about beating the Bills. Last year Buffalo strolled into town with an impressive 9-2 record favored by 3 vs this Titans. They left with a 42-16 loss. It was one week after the Bills played KC very similar to this situation. The dog has covered 6 straight in this series and let’s not act as of this Tennessee team is some slouch. They are 3-2 this year so this is a huge game for them and they won the AFC South a season ago. We’re not talking about Jacksonville or the NY Jets here. They are a playoff caliber team getting nearly a TD at home. This one stays close throughout and we’ll take the points.

#268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland -3 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - We love the way this one has set up. We’re getting one of the top teams in the NFL, Cleveland, off a loss and back at home. They are 3-2 on the season with down to the wire losses @ KC and @ LA Chargers and this is a huge game for them. The Browns lost 37-32 @ LA last week but outgained the Chargers in overall yardage and on a YPP basis. They were also +117 yards on the ground racking up 230 yards rushing on 6.6 YPC. Their defense underperformed last week but still rank 7th in YPP allowed even with that showing. The D should also be well rested having not been on the field for more than 25 minutes (out of 60 minutes) in any of their last 4 games. Arizona comes in 5-0 and ready to be plucked. Last week they played host to division rival San Francisco and won 17-0 despite being outgained on both a total yard and YPP basis. That was a Niner team with a rookie QB making his first start and SF has many opportunities to win that game. The Cards are off back to back division games so this is a nice letdown spot for them. It’s also a terrible match up for their defense. Cleveland is the best running team in the NFL averaging 187 YPG on 5.4 YPC. Arizona’s defense ranks 28th in rushing YPG allowed and 31st in YPC allowed. Not only that, the Cards give up big plays in the running game allowing an average of 5 carries per game of 10+ yards (last in the NFL) and they are 31st in the NFL on yardage allowed on carries of 10 yards or more. Bad news for them is Cleveland’s running game leads the NFL in yards gained on carries of 10 or more yards. So Cleveland won’t need their passing attack to pick up chunk yardage on Sunday. With the successful running game will come a great play action pass attack which is perfect for Baker Mayfield. If he’s asked to carry a team in the passing game, he can struggle, but if he is just complementary to their running game, he can be very good and so can Cleveland’s offense. Arizona also relies on running the ball but they are facing a MUCH tougher Cleveland defense allowing just 3.4 YPG (3rd in the NFL). It’s supposed to be windy in Cleveland so the Browns dominance in the running game will be even more pronounced. On top of that, Arizona has been hit by Covid this week and one of their top defensive players, DE Chandler Jones, will be out. Who knows if there are more to come? Arizona QB Murray has been limited in practice this week due to a shoulder injury and his top target WR Hopkins may not play on Sunday due to an illness which we might assume is Covid since it has hit the team. Another one of Murray’s top targets, TE Williams is now out for the year after getting injured last Sunday. Despite their records, our power ratings have Cleveland the better team. They are +1.2 YPP differential while the undefeated Cards are +0.7 YPP. Now we’re getting what we feel is the better team, in a much more desperate situation at home coming off a loss. Cleveland is the play here.

#257/258 ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 54 Points – Kansas City vs Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This has the makings of a shootout. The KC defense ranks last in the NFL in YPP allowed at 7.1 and they’ve allowed 4 straight opponents to reach at least 30 points. The only opponent that did not reach 30 points vs this sieve of a defense was Cleveland and they scored 29. Opponents are scoring on 54% of their drives vs this KC defense which ranks them last in the league in that category. KC’s offense continues to be nearly unstoppable. Last week they “only” scored 20 points against the NFL’s top defense Buffalo that allows just 12 PPG. In that game KC has plenty of chances getting shut out on downs inside Bills territory and committing 2 of their 4 turnovers deep inside the Buffalo 15 yard line. In their other 4 games the Chiefs have averaged 33.5 PPG. Now they face a Washington defense that is WAY down from last year allowing 31 PPG after allowing 21 PPG last season. In their last 4 games Washington has allowed 29, 43, 33, and 30 points. Two of those four teams that lit the Washington defense up are rated 22nd or lower in scoring this year (Giants & Falcons). Opponents are scoring on over 52% of their drives vs this Washington defense which ranks them 31st in the league. They will not shut this KC offense down who comes in off a loss. Washington’s offense has been clicking scoring an average of 27 PPG over their last 4 games and 2 of those games were vs Buffalo (#1 scoring defense) and New Orleans (#11 scoring defense). Now they face the worst scoring defense in the NFL with KC allowing 32.6 PPG. Oh by the way, Washington defense is the 2nd worst scoring defense in the league giving up 31 PPG. KC games are averaging 64 PPG this year (1st in the NFL) and Washington games are averaging 55 PPG (4th in the NFL). This one goes OVER.

#109/110 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 Points- Tampa Bay vs Philadelphia, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Both of these teams play at a fast pace which should give us plenty of offensive opportunities. Tampa ranks #1 in the NFL in pace averaging 1 play every 25 seconds and Philly is #5 in that category at 1 play every 26.4 seconds. Both offenses are extremely efficient with each ranking in the top 10 averaging more than 6 YPP. Tampa has been in 4 high scoring games and just 1 low scoring game. Their only stinker on offense was @ New England in a driving rainstorm vs a coach who knows what it takes to slow down a Brady led offense. Their other 4 games all went over the total and all reached at least 58 points with an average combined score of 63 points. The Eagle defense has faced 2 similar offenses this year in Dallas & KC and they allowed 41 & 42 points in those 2 games respectively. Philly will have to keep up on offense here if they want a shot at a win. We think they can. The Tampa defense has dropped off drastically from last season allowing 24 PPG after allowing 21 PPG last season. They’ve had 2 good defensive efforts this year but those were vs 2 offensive teams that rank near the bottom of the NFL in a number if key categories (Miami & New England – 31st & 27th in YPP offense). In their other 3 games the Bucs have allowed 34, 29, and 25 points. This selection is being made on Tuesday and as of now the weather looks perfect in Philly on Thursday night. Tom Brady did injure his thumb last Sunday @ Miami but he did so early in the game and still went on to throw for over 400 yards and 5 TD’s. Reports as of Tuesday say he will be fine on Thursday. The projected final score of this game based on the 7 point spread is Tampa 29.5 – Philadelphia 22.5. Our projections has both teams topping those numbers with TB pushing into the 30’s and the Eagles to the mid 20’s. Take the OVER on Thursday night.

#475 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco +5.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Arizona has started the season a perfect 4-0 while San Fran is off back to back home losses vs Green Bay & Seattle. Thus, this line is higher than it should be according to our power ratings. If this was the season opener, we’re looking at right around pick-em for a line and now we get the Niners at +5. Arizona was very fortunate in their only home tilt this year as the Vikings missed a FG at the buzzer that would have given them the win (Zona won 34-33). They struggled to a 31-19 win @ Jacksonville but the Cards were trailing 19-10 late in the 3rd quarter in that game when a pick 6 turned the game around (Jax also had 4 TO’s). After picking up a nice win last week @ LA Rams (Rams were in letdown spot of win over Bucs) the Cardinals stock is a bit high right now. San Fran lost 28-21 at home to Seattle last week but they dominated the stat sheet with a +2.0 YPP differential, +1.1 YPC differential, and 9 more first downs. Starting QB Garoppolo was injured and rookie QB Lance came in an did very well in the 2nd half. While Lance was in the game the 49ers outgained Russell Wilson and the Seahawks 230 to 170 so he played well. It looks like he will most likely start this weekend which will be tough on Arizona with San Francisco bringing an entirely different offensive gameplan to the table that HC Shanahan has been waiting to unleash. The Cardinal defense will be running blind in this one as far as being able to game plan for the SF offense. The last 14 times San Francisco was coming off back to back losses as favorites, they were 11-3 ATS in their next game. This has been an underdog series with the puppy going 5-0-1 ATS the last 6 meetings including 4 outright wins. Last year the Niners were 6 point underdogs @ Arizona with CJ Beathard at QB and won the game! This is a buy low (SF) / sell high (Arizona) spot for us and we like the 49ers to get the cover.

#473/474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 52 Points – NY Giants vs Dallas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Dallas offense is humming right now ranking 4th in the NFL at 31.5 PPG. They have scored 77 points in 2 games at home this season including 36 last week vs Carolina, who did have the top defense in the league entering the game allowing just 10 PPG on 3.7 YPP. Dallas shredded the Panthers last week for 7.7 YPP which was a full 4 YPP more than they were allowing entering the game. Now they face an NYG defense that ranks 23rd in YPP allowed which is the lowest of any team the Cowboys have faced so far. They will continue to put points on the board in this game. Surprising to many, the Giants offense ranks 8th in the NFL in YPP at 6.2. We were ultra impressed with their offense last week as they rolled up an average of 8.1 YPP on a very good New Orleans defense. Dallas owns the 30th ranked defense allowing 6.4 YPP. So we have 2 good offense, each facing the worst defense they’ve played this season. All but 1 of the Cowboys games this year have reached at least 60 points and that was vs the Chargers who’ve held a number of top notch offenses to their season lows. 9 of the last 12 meetings in Dallas have gone OVER the total and these two have scored an average of 55 points in those 12 meetings. Both teams capable of hitting high 20’s to 30+ so OVER is the play.

#301 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -2 over Seattle, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - We like this spot for the Rams. They are the better team and coming off a loss last Sunday at home vs Arizona. It wasn’t overly surprising as, despite it being a division game, it was a big time letdown spot for the Rams after beating up on Tampa Bay a week earlier. Despite their 37-20 loss to the Cards, the yardage was about dead even (6.3 YPP to 6.2 YPP) but LA had 2 key turnovers that directly led to 14 points for Arizona. The Rams also missed a FG and were shut out on downs at the Arizona 1-yard line. Seattle is coming off a game they had to win @ San Francisco after losing back to back games vs the Titans & Vikings. Those 2 losses don’t look great for Seattle now as Tennessee just lost to the Jets and Minnesota was ousted at home by Cleveland. The Seahawks did what they needed to do last week picking up a 28-21 win vs the Niners. It wasn’t all that impressive however as they were outgained by a wide margin (6.3 YPP to 4.3 YPP) and SF starting QB Garoppolo didn’t play in the 2nd half due to an injured leg leaving it up to inexperienced rookie Trey Lance. With Lance running the show in the 2nd half the 49ers actually outgained Seattle 230 to 172 but a key fumble from the rookie led to a 14 yard TD drive for the Seahawks which turned out to be the difference in the game. Seattle is also pretty banged up right now with 3 starters on both offense and defense possibly out on Thursday including top WR Metcalfe who has a foot injury. These 2 met 3 times last year (playoffs included) and the Rams won 2 of the 3 games including a 30-20 win @ Seattle in the playoffs and they outgained the Hawks 1,056 to 903. And that was with Jared Goff at QB not Matthew Stafford who is a big upgrade. Seattle used to be a covering machine at home but that hasn’t been the case as of late. They are just 8-10 ATS their last 18 home tilts dating back to the 2018 season. We like the better team, with the better defense, off a loss here. Take the Rams.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51.5 Points – Las Vegas vs LA Chargers, Monday at 8 PM ET - We don’t expect this division battle to get to 50 points so we’re on the UNDER tonight. 8 of the last 9 meetings have not topped 50 points (in regulation). Last year both meetings went Over however one of those games went to OT and they combined for 9 points in OT otherwise it would have been Under. The Las Vegas passing game likes to attack defenses with deeper routes but this is a poor match up for them as the Chargers are the best in the league at preventing completed passes that travel 15+ yards. The Chargers defense also limits opposing QB’s to 6.6 yards per pass attempt and they’ve limited 2 of their 3 opponents to 20 points or less. That includes Dallas who has one of the top offenses in the league. The lone team to top 20 points was KC and even in that game they held the Chiefs to 24 points. If LAC can limit big plays the Raiders will struggle to score at the same rate they have so far this season. We like what new LAC HC Staley is doing with their defense as he led a top notch stop unit for the LA Rams before taking this job. On offense the Chargers scored just 20 & 17 in their first 2 games before hitting 30 last week @ KC, who has the worst defense in the NFL. Even in that game 10 of their 30 points came in the final 2:14 of the game. Vegas has much improved defensive numbers ranking 9th in the NFL allowing only 5.3 YPP. They are limiting QB’s to just 5.9 yards per pass attempt which ranks them on the top 5 in the league. The average point total in the NFL this year is 47 which is down nearly a full FG from last season. These 2 teams know each other very well and over the last 9 meetings they have only averaged 41 total points. This one stays UNDER the total.

#271 ASA TOP PLAY ON Seattle +2.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is a must win for Seattle who sits at 1-2 after blowing double digit leads in each of the last 2 weeks vs Tennessee & Minnesota. The Seattle offense has been rolling as they are averaging 7.4 YPP which is tops in the NFL this season. San Fran’s offense is heading in the opposite direction. After lighting up a bad Detroit defense for 8 YPP in their opener the Niners have averaged just 4.5 and 4.6 YPP their last 2 games vs Philly & Green Bay. The 49ers have been outgained by 1.5 YPP in each of their last 2 games and they were extremely lucky to win @ Philly and lucky to even have a chance vs Green Bay. The defense has been struggling as well allowing 6.0+ YPP in each of those games as well which isn’t ideal facing a red hot Seahawks offense. They are also really banged up in the defensive backfield as it looks like they will have only 4 healthy corners on the roster. One of those players is coming back from injury (Moseley) and two were not even on the active roster vs Green Bay. We expect Russell Wilson to have a huge day. Wilson has dominated San Francisco since taking over as Seattle’s starting QB in 2012. He is 15-4 SU vs the Niners in his career. The Hawks have also NEVER lost 3 games in a row since Wilson took over. They have lost 2 straight just 8 times in Wilson’s career and they are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS after those losses. The Niners, on the other hand, have been a terrible home favorite with an ATS record of just 5-20-1 ATS in that role since 2014. The better QB in a must win spot getting points is a nice situation. Seattle is the play.

#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 Points – Carolina vs Dallas, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Dallas is averaging 30 PPG and you might think this is a game they get shut down by a Carolina defense that ranks #2 in the NFL holding opponents to just 10 PPG. Forget about it. Dallas will put up plenty of points here. First of all the Panthers have face potentially the easy set of offenses in the NFL to date. Their games have come against the Jets with QB Wilson making the first start of his career, the Saints with QB Winston who didn’t play last season + a number of WR’s and offensive coaches out due to Covid, and the Texans with rookie QB Mills making his first start on a short week. Dallas put up 29 on a top notch Tampa defense and 41 last week on a Philly defense that, even after that game, has allowed just 4.7 YPP ranking them 7th in the NFL. The Carolina offense will have to keep up here. They haven’t had to do that yet this season after jumping out to leads and letting their defense dominate poor and inexperienced QB’s. Despite that they’ve still scored 26 & 24 points in their last 2 games so they are capable. The Cowboys rank 4th in the NFL in plays per game and Carolina is 6th so we look for a faster paced game with plenty of offensive snaps. This one goes OVER the total.

ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – Jacksonville vs Cincinnati, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Cincinnati is 2-1 on the season and their defense is definitely flying under the radar. They rank 4th in the NFL in YPP allowed and 4th in yards per pass attempt allowed. The Bengals have allowed 46 offensive points in 3 games (minus opponents defensive or special teams scores) which is just 15.3 PPG. We expect them to limit a Jacksonville offense that is still working through their new system on that side of the ball. The Jags have scored just 6 offensive TD’s in 3 games and 3 of those came in their opener vs Houston. Last week the Jags vs Cards game totaled 51 points but 14 of those came on non-offensive TD’s so really just 36 points for the offenses. The week before vs Denver they totaled 36 points but that included a 102 yard kickoff return for Jacksonville so they scored just 29 offensive points combined. Both offenses rank 19th or lower in the league in YPP gained. They are ranked 25th (Bengals) and 31st (Jags) in 3rd down conversion percentage so keeping drives alive here will be tough. Cincy’s offense is slow paced (30th in the NFL) and they love to run the ball (almost 49% of the time – 4th in the NFL) which will eat clock. Jacksonville is faster paced yet they only run 61 plays per game which ranks them 22nd in the NFL. The projected score here is in the range of Cincinnati 27, Jacksonville 20 and we don’t see either team getting to those numbers. Take the UNDER on Thursday Night.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Top Play on 10* UNDER 51.5 - The action on this game currently see’s more tickets coming in on the Over and more money on Under. We’ll side with the money and BET UNDER. 3 of the last four meeting have stayed UNDER the number and the one game that did go Over this Total of 51.5 was last year and it took a late TD with under 2 minutes to play to get to 54 total points. In those three games that stayed below the number these two teams averaged 35PPG. The Eagles put up yards and points in the opener against a horrible Falcons defense then were limited to 328 total yards and 11-points last week by San Francisco. Dallas isn’t as good as the 49ers defensively but they aren’t as bad as the Falcons either. The Cowboys weakness defensively is against the pass (31st) but the Eagles can’t take advantage with the 22nd ranked passing O averaging just 219PYPG. On the flip side the Cowboys (6th) ranked passing attack will have problems moving the ball against an Eagles pass D ranked 3rd. Much like last weeks low scoring game against the Chargers the Cowboys can rely on their rushing attack which is 7th best in the NFL against a Philly D giving up 120RYPG which ranks 19th. Dallas rush D over-rated as TBay and LAC only attempted 33 combined total rushes against them. Eagles will rely on one of the best rushing attacks averaging over 162 rushing yds per game. Eagles on 9-3 Under streak their last 12 games overall, Cowboys on 4-1 Under run as a favorite.

#495/496 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50.5 Points – Green Bay vs San Francisco, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The Niner offense averaged a ridiculous 8.0 YPP in their week 1 win over Detroit. Last week they played a defense with a pulse @ Philly and only put up 17 points on 4.5 YPP. Green Bay’s defense gave up 38 in week one @ New Orleans but that was quite deceiving as the Saints only had 322 total yards in that game. The Saints had two TD drives of less than 22 yards and averaged 1 point for every 8.4 yards gained which was beyond efficient. The league average for yards per point is usually around 15 which would have translated to 21 points for the Saints with their yardage numbers in that game. Last week they allowed 17 points vs Detroit and held the Lions scoreless in the 2nd half. We project GB’s defense to be very solid this year and SF will have problems on offense Sunday. On the other side of the ball, SF’s defense has been very good. They shut down Philly to just 11 points last week and Detroit had 17 points the week prior with under 3:00 minutes remaining in the game before scoring 2 late TD’s with the Niners in prevent mode. The GB offense looked better in the 2nd half last week but again, that was vs Detroit who projects to have one of the worst defense in the NFL. Even with that, Green Bay is only averaging 4.8 YPP on the season ranking them 26th in the NFL. They struggled big time vs a very good Saints defense (3 points) and we have San Fran’s stop unit on par with New Orleans. Both of these teams are very slow when it comes to pace. Green Bay finished dead last in pace a year ago running one play 31 seconds. San Francisco was 26th in pace last season. This year they both rank below 22nd in pace. With SF favored in the 3-point range, the expected score is right around 27-24. We don’t see either teams getting to their projected scoring numbers. Take the UNDER here.

#494 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +2 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is an absolute must win for Minnesota. They have played better than their 0-2 record as they really could easily be 2-0. They lost in OT @ Cincinnati when they fumbled getting into FG range for the winning points. Last week they played @ Arizona and missed what would have been the game winning FG as time expired. Now they get their home opener where they are an impressive 16-4 (80%) their last 20 as a home dog dating back to 2012. The Vikings got their rushing attack rolling last week with 177 yards on 6.6 YPC and they are facing a Seattle team that has allowed 162 YPG this year on the ground (31st). Minny RB Cook was banged up last week but all indications are he will play on Sunday. Seattle has a great home field advantage but laying points on the road had not been a money maker for this team. They are 1-0 this year in that role but just 5-14-2 ATS laying point on the road from 2016 – 2020. Seattle blew a lead at home vs Tennessee at home last week and lost in OT. The were outgained by 135 yards in that game. They’ve been outgained by 90 yards on the season thus far. Last year Minnesota was +6.5 @ Seattle and lost a tight game 27-26 but outgained the Hawks 449 to 314. We love this spot for the Vikings and expect them to win this game outright. We’ll take the points here.

#301/302 – ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5 Points – Carolina vs Houston, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - We feel this is a bad spot for Carolina on the road for the first time coming off home wins over the Jets & Saints but we’re not about to take Houston in this game with their situation at QB. The Under is the best play in this game. Rookie Davis Mills will start at QB for Houston with Tyrod Taylor going on injured reserve. Mills played the 2nd half last week and let the Texans to one TD @ Cleveland. He was just 8 of 18 through the air and while he was in the game Houston averaged just 4.2 YPP. While he will get to practice with the starters this week, it’s only for a few days on a short week so far from ideal for a rookie QB. He’s facing a Carolina defense that’s allowed 21 points this season and they lead the NFL allowing just 3.7 YPP. Last week vs the Saints the Panthers allowed a total of 128 yards! Houston will struggle offensively in this game. The Panthers haven’t exactly lit the world on fire offensively with 19 points vs the Jets and 26 vs the Saints. Houston’s defense did a decent job last week vs one of the top offenses in the NFL holding the Browns to 355 total yards. Both of these teams like to run the ball ranking in the top 6 in carries per game which will help eat this clock and shorten the game. We foresee Carolina getting ahead in this game and grinding out a win with Houston’s offense doing very little. Play the UNDER on Thursday Night.

#287 ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +3.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We have some serious week 1 overreaction taking place here. Prior to last week Arizona was favored by -1.5 in this game and now that they destroyed Tennessee last week and Minnesota lost in OT @ Cincinnati, this line has crossed the key number of 3 and we’re getting the Vikings at +3.5. We’ll take it. Minnesota will bring their “A” game here after losing a tough one last week in OT. The Vikes outgained Cincy in the game and had the ball moving into FG territory in OT when RB Cook fumbled. Cincy then kicked the game winning FG 2 minutes later as time expired. Minny HC Zimmer has been fabulous as an underdog off a SU loss going 21-6-1 ATS their last 28 in that role. Arizona looked great last week vs a Tennessee team we had projected to regress big time this year. The Titans despite finishing with 11 wins in the regular season, had a point differential of just +52 which ranked them 7th in the AFC and 12th in the NFL. Over half of their wins last year (6) were by 3 points or less or in overtime. Tennessee was -13 YPG last season and right around dead even in their yards per play differential (+0.1 YPP differential). They weren’t nearly as good as their record last year and last week they showed that. 3 turnovers by Tennessee led directly to 14 points for Arizona including a 1-yard TD drive by the Cards after a Titan fumble. Arizona QB Murray played the game of his life vs a poor Tennessee defense that finished last year ranked 29th in total defense and 24th in scoring defense. We expect Murray to come back to earth this week vs what we project to be a very solid Minnesota defense. Look for the Vikings to get the running game rolling this week behind Dalvin Cook. Arizona’s rush defense was near the bottom of the NFL last year but Tennessee had to abandoned their running game pretty quickly last week after getting down big early. We like the coaching edge with Zimmer as well in this game as Arizona coach Kingsbury is just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite since taking over in Arizona. Take the points.

#101/102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 40.5 Points – NY Giants vs Washington, Thursday at 8 PM ET - This total opened 43 which is right where we had it and it has been pushed down to 40.5 so now we’ll jump on the OVER. While this has been a low scoring NFC East series, this total has been adjusted too low. With the total currently set at 40.5 points, this is the 2nd lowest total in the last 23 meetings between these 2 teams. We understand the move down as Washington QB Fitzpatrick was injured and back up Heinicke will be starting here. These teams scored 13 and 16 points last week as well which is the most recent thing bettors have seen. However, neither team was very good defensively last week and we expect both offenses to look much better in week 2. The Washington defense was touted as being one of the best in the NFL this year but they struggled allowing 424 yards to a Charger team that sat many of their starters during the pre-season including QB Herbert. LA scored 20 points but it should have been more as they settled for FG’s on 2 drives deep into Washington territory, Herbert fumbled through the endzone going in to score, and he threw an interception at the Washington 4-yard line. The NYG defense allowed a fairly pedestrian Denver offense (28th in scoring last year / 26th in YPP offense) to put up 27 points on 6.4 YPP. The NYG offense has a lot of weapons at RB & WR and we expect them to play much better this week with a game under their belts. Heinicke was OK last week coming into the game for an injured Fitzgerald but now with a full week of practice as the starter, we also expect Washington to play better on that side of the ball. Remember Heinicke did start last year’s playoff game and threw for over 300 yards and put up 23 points vs one of the best defenses in the league. The average points scored in an NFL game last year was 49.6 and this year after one week it’s 47.8. This one is a full TD+ below those numbers. We like both teams to get to at least 20 points here and that gets this one OVER the total.

#479/480 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46.5 Points – Chicago vs LA Rams, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - These 2 teams have met 3 times in the last 3 seasons and each game has been a grinder to say the least. All 3 have gone UNDER the total by a combined 56 points! The average total points scored in those 3 games has been just 26. That’s it. We don’t see anything changing this year. We look for Chicago’s offense to struggle vs a Ram defense that will be among the best in the NFL. LA allowed the fewest YPG last season (292) along with the lowest YPP mark (4.7). Chicago will be led at QB by Andy Dalton which doesn’t strike fear in any defense, especially one that sit a top the NFL. The Bears starting offense didn’t show us anything to be positive about in the pre-season. They were on the field for 8 total series, had only 4 first downs, 144 total yards and tallied just 6 points. The Bears will struggle on offense. Chicago’s strength is their defense as well. They have finished in the top 10 in total defense for 4 straight years. The Rams added QB Stafford but let’s not forget they finished 22nd last year in scoring (23 PPG) and 19th in YPP. While he might be an upgrade, we don’t expect this offense to elevate all the much is 2021. The Rams have hit the UNDER in 14 of their last 17 home games. They have also cashed the UNDER in 20 of the last 26 games they’ve been tabbed a favorite. The Bears are 13-5 to the UNDER their last 18 as a road dog. The history says low scoring and we agree. This one stays UNDER the total.

#474 ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Patriots will be one of the most improved teams in the NFL.  It’s actually somewhat amazing they finished with a respectable 7-9 record as we’d argue the Covid situation affected this team more than any other.  They had more opt outs on the season than every other team and a number of players that remained were hit hard including QB Newton who was never the same after contracted Covid.  Newton is now gone and Belichick is going with rookie QB Jones from Alabama as the starter.  It he simply manages the game and doesn’t make mistakes this team will be very solid.  They spent more in free agency in the off season than any other team and they did so on very solid players as they always do.  The New England defense will be one of the best in the NFL and facing a banged up Miami OLine.  Fins starting LT Jackson is on the Covid list and may not play leaving a rookie or a lineman they signed 2 weeks ago as the starter.  Pats are 8-1 ATS their last 9 at home vs Miami including 21-11 win here last year and outgained the Dolphins by 1.1 YPP in that game.  New England was a 6.5 point favorite in that game and now they are laying 3 despite being vastly improved from a year ago.  Miami, because they made the playoffs, we feel is a bit overvalued as they were outgained by 0.6 YPP by their opponents.  Tua was a disaster last year (44.8 QBR – 26th in the NFL) and in his lone start vs Belichick’s depleted defense he threw for just 145 yards with 0 TD’s and 1 pick.  We look for him to struggle again on Sunday.  The host has covered 16 of the last 21 in this AFC East rivalry and we have the Patriots winning by more than a FG here.

#452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -8 over Dallas, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - This spread opened -6.5 over the summer and has pushed through the key number of -7 with no buyback whatsoever. That speaks volumes. Our power rating on this is closer to -10 so we still think there is value with the Bucs. We expect Dallas to start the season slow on both sides of the ball. Offensively QB Prescott will be taking his first live snaps in almost a year as he was injured last October and hasn’t played since. Defensively the Cowboys were poor last year ranking 23rd in both YPG & YPP allowed. Now they are learning a different system under new DC Quinn and it will take them some time to get acclimated. Tampa is the opposite. They return all 22 starters which is extremely rare in the NFL and we look for them to be clicking on all cylinders right away. Last season the Bucs had to find their way so to speak with new QB Brady but they improved greatly as the season went on. Tampa scored 25 or more points in just 6 of their first 12 games and then put up 26+ in their final 8 games averaging 34 PPG during that stretch (including playoffs). WR Mike Evans was recently quoted as saying the TB offense is “miles” ahead of where it was last year at this time. We expect the Bucs defense to be one of the tops in the league again in 2021. They were #1 vs the run last year allowing just 81 YPG. They should be able to take away the Dallas rushing attack with the Cowboys top run blocker and top overall OL Martin out for this one due to Covid. That means Prescott will need a huge game in order for the Boys to stay in this one and we just don’t see that happening. Too much time away from full speed action for him just to turn it on and be at the top of his game. He hasn’t been able to work with his receivers vs real defensive bullets and his top WR Lamb has been out for a few weeks with Covid and just returned. Tampa wins this one by double digits.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 56 Points – Kansas City vs Tampa Bay, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - These two teams met in the regular season here in Tampa and the total was the exact same number (56). The game went Under with KC winning 27-24. We can take a few situations from that game to project why we feel this game has a decent shot of going Over this time around. In that game the two teams combined for almost 1,000 yards which would normally equate to 67 total points based on the NFL average of 15 yards per point. So by scoring just 51 in the first game, the two teams averaged 19.6 yards per point which less efficient than the worst team in the NFL in that category, the Jets who averaged 18.4 yards per point. During the regular season, TB was #2 in the NFL in yards per point at 12.5 and KC was 12th at 14.1 so both drastically underperformed in their only meeting this year. Both teams averaged 7.5 yards per play or better in that game which only happened one other time this season. If we look at the games where both teams averaged at least 7.5 per play it’s happened 18 times since 2000 and those games had an average of 73 points scored. Not saying both teams will average those numbers again here, but they have shown they can do just that. Both teams had missed opportunities galore in that game. There were 3 turnovers inside their opponents 15 yard line and only 1 TD was scored in 5 red zone opportunities. That was an anomaly as both of these teams are very efficient in the red zone ranking 11th and 12th in red zone TD’s scored percentage. On top of that, neither defense has been good at stopping teams from scoring TD’s in the red zone with KC ranking dead last in the NFL (74% of opponents trips to the red zone ended in TD’s) and TB ranking 19th in that category (62% of opponents trips to the red zone ended in TD’s). That first meeting was very pass heavy with 91 pass attempts and just 33 rush attempts and we expect similar numbers here which would favor the Over. These two teams both average right around 30 PPG (KC at 29.6 & TB at 30.7) peaking right now. Tampa’s offense has scored at least 30 points in 6 straight games while KC’s offense put up 38 last week vs Buffalo and had 19 at half vs Cleveland a week earlier before Mahomes was injured in the 3rd and didn’t play the remainder of the game. One thing we will keep an eye on here is the weather. We are releasing this pick on Thursday and the current forecast in Tampa calls for potential rain, but light winds which is key. We think both teams have a solid shot to reach the 30’s here and we’ll grab the OVER.

#311/312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 52 Points – Tampa Bay @ Green Bay, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We were waiting on the weather here and it now looks like it will actually be perfect. Snow ending early in the morning and light winds by game time. We like an easy Over here between these two high powered offenses. The Bucs have the 2nd best offense in the NFL in terms of yards per point as on average it takes them just 12.6 yards to score 1-point. The #1 rated team in that category is Green Bay who takes just 12.4-yards per point. The Buccaneers average 30.7PPG on the season while the Packers put up 31.8PPG which ranks them in the top two of the NFL. These two teams just faced the Rams and Saints who had two of the better defensive units in the NFL and they both put up 30+ points each. Green Bay’s defense has been ‘average’ all season long and currently rank 17th in defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders. In their last ten games the Packers have faced seven teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive DVOA so their recent defensive statistics are skewed. Now they face a Bucs team that is 3rd in the NFL in DVOA. Green Bay is 19th in yards per point defensively, Tampa Bay is 13th. Tampa Bay has some misleading defensive numbers of their own as they’ve given up 20 or more points in eight of their last ten games and one of the games, they didn’t allow 20+ was against a bad Lions offense. The Bucs recently have allowed 23-points to an anemic Washington offense and 27 points twice to Atlanta who averaged 13.9 yards per point against them. Imagine what Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are going to do. Packers have scored at least 30 points in 13 of their 17 games this season and Tampa has scored at least 24 points in 15 of their 18 games on the year. The Packers worst game offensively this year, by far, was at Tampa but they did score 10 points on their first 2 drives before turnovers did them in. In that game, Aaron Rodgers threw 2 interceptions including a pick 6 and completed only 45% of his passes – he completed at least 60% in every other game this season. It was just the 5th time since 2013 that Rodgers hit on less than 50% of his passes in a game. He was under constant pressure getting sacked 4 times and hit 13 times. Just one of the worst performances of his career. That kind of stuff motivates him and we expect him to play great on Sunday. Can the OLine give him time? We absolutely believe so as they played great last week vs a Rams defense that came in ranked #1 in sack percentage. Rodgers was not sacked once in the game and he was only hit 1 time. Tampa’s offense is also playing as well as they have all season scoring at least 30 in 5 straight games. Both of these teams have the ability to hit 30 points. With the spread set at GB -3.5, the final score is expected to be in the range of 28-24. GB scored 32 last week vs a Rams defense that is better than this TB stop unit. We could argue the score could have been worse than 32-18 last week as the Packers scored on their first 5 possessions vs the #1 defense in the NFL and only punted twice. We anticipate GB topping 30 here which means Tampa won’t actually have to go crazy on offense to get this OVER 52 points. Play the OVER here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over the Total – Cleveland @ Kansas City, Sunday at 3 PM ET - High total here but we still don’t think It’s high enough. Both of these teams have a strong potential to reach the 30’s in this game and we wouldn’t doubt it if both get above that number. KC has had a few weeks off so we know HC Andy Reid will have a number of new wrinkles on offense. He always has his team ready offensively but especially so in the playoffs with time off. The last 2 years in the division round (week off heading into the game) the Chiefs have scored 82 combined points or 41 PPG. They are facing the weakest defense remaining in the playoffs as Cleveland ranks 25th in DVOA defense. Speaking of the weakest defense remaining, KC is right their with Browns ranking 22nd DVOA defense (the 2nd worst defense left in the post season). Both defenses weaknesses match up very poorly with the opposing offense. KC is 31st DVOA rush defense and Cleveland is one of the top running teams in the league ranking 7th DVOA rush offense. On the other side, the Browns are poor at slowing down opposing pass offenses ranking 25th DVOA defense vs the pass and KC’s pass offense is fantastic ranking 2nd DVOA pass offense. Both of these offenses have the potential to put up big numbers in this game. The Chiefs reached 30+ points in 9 of their 15 games (we are excluding the final regular season game when they sat Mahomes and starters) including games vs Saints, Ravens, and the Dolphins, all top 5 scoring defenses. The Browns offensive numbers are lower than they should be on the season as they played 3 games at home in extremely high winds & 1 game without their entire WR corps. If we subtract those games Cleveland averaged 30 PPG and that includes a 6 point performance in the season opener @ Baltimore and a 7 point performance @ Pittsburgh. They hit 30+ points vs some very good defenses as well including Pittsburgh (last week), Baltimore (in 2nd meeting), Indianapolis, and Washington. We know Mahomes will put up big numbers, however Cleveland QB Mayfield has been playing great as well down the stretch throwing for 2000 yards, 14 TD’s and 1 interception since Thanksgiving. We know Cleveland will have to “keep up” on the scoreboard here and they are more than capable of doing so. OVER is the play.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore +2.5 over Buffalo, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET - The Ravens should have a huge advantage on the ground in this game. They are the #1 rush offense in the NFL (191 YPG) and they’ve been on fire as of late averaging 262 YPG rushing over their last 6 games including topping 230 yards rushing in 5 of those games. That success should continue facing a Buffalo defense that allows 4.7 YPG (27th in the NFL) and gave up 163 yards on 5.4 YPC last week vs Indy. The Bills found a way to win that game but they were outgained on the ground and through the air in that one. Buffalo is a poor running team already and lost their top RB Moss to an injury last week. Baltimore has a fairly large edge overall defensively ranking in the top 10 in many key categories. They have the highest blitz rate in the NFL and we think Buffalo QB Allen will make some mistakes because of that pressure. Last week the Ravens held the Titans (6th ranked offense in the NFL) to just 209 total yards. Baltimore head coach Harbaugh is a great road playoff coach has he now owns the all time record for wins on the road in the post season with 8. He has a road warrior type team as the Ravens are 15-3 SU their last 18 road games and 13-4 ATS their last 17 road playoff games. Not only that, Baltimore QB Jackson has started 39 games in his career and only lost 3 of those by more than 6 points so when they do lose, it’s close. Baltimore led the NFL in point differential for the 2nd straight year and we feel they are undervalued. With very little to no home field advantage and the way the Ravens perform on the road, we’ll take the points here.

#152 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -5.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - The Steelers are a perennial playoff team having made the post-season in 8 of Mike Tomlin’s 14 years as head coach. They know what the playoffs are all about. That gives them a big advantage here over a Cleveland team that is in the post-season for the first time in 18 years. The playoffs are a different animal. That’s why inexperienced QB’s tend to struggle at this time of year. In fact, QB’s making their first playoff appearance (Mayfield) are 14-36 ATS. It’s just really tough to prepare for something you don’t know or you’ve never been a part of. These two met last week in Cleveland and the Browns were in a must win and still barely won the game 24-22. That was with Pittsburgh sitting QB Roethlisberger and a number of other starters including most of their key defensive players. Pittsburgh STILL outgained Cleveland for the game and on a YPP basis with Mason Rudolph at QB. Their other meeting this year when both teams were at full strength, the Steelers won 38-7. Not only is Cleveland new to this experience, they’ve been dealing with plenty of distractions this week. Their facilities have been closed all week due to Covid. They’ve been preparing for this game virtually. On top of that their head coach Stefanski, who’s led their resurgent offense, won’t be at this game due to Covid. A number of players are potentially out as well for the same reason. A less than ideal situation leading into a playoff game to say least. Cleveland’s offense doesn’t match up well in this game. The Steelers have the #1 defense in the league when it comes to pressuring the QB. Mayfield stinks when under pressure (43% completion rate). Pitt sacked him 8 times in the 2 meeting and in the game @ Pittsburgh they held Mayfield to his lowest QBR of the season. The Browns are the only team in the playoffs with a negative point differential on the season and they have lost 17 straight here in Pittsburgh. We’ll lay it and say the Steelers win by double digits.

#145/146 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points – Tampa Bay @ Washington - Many will look at Tampa’s recent surge on offense a feel this team is peaking on that side of the ball. The Bucs have scored 26, 31, 44, and 47 points over the last month. However, those numbers were put up vs Atlanta (twice), Minnesota, and Detroit, three defenses ranked 27th or lower in total defense AND yards per play defense. Now they face a Washington defense that will be as good as they’ve seen this season (2nd in the NFL in total defense and YPP defense). It’s also a defense that can put serious pressure on opposing QB’s (4th in QB pressure rate) which is bad news for the immobile, aging Tom Brady. He completes just 43% of his passes when under pressure and ranks 31st in the NFL in QBR. We don’t expect Brady to light it up here. On the other side, Washington obviously really struggles on offense. They only average 20.9 PPG and some of their higher scoring efforts came when QB Alex Smith was healthy. Right now he’s not. His arm strength is down this season and with his bad calf he really struggles to move around. Last week vs a poor Philadelphia defense, without their top player (Fletcher Cox), in a must win game they only were able to score 20 on just 4.0 YPP. They’ve scored 20 or less in 6 straight games and we don’t think they get there in this one. They face one of the top defenses in the NFL as Tampa ranking 6th in both total and YPP defense. Washington has faced 3 top 10 defenses this year and they score a grand total of 3 offensive TD’s in those 3 games. We tend to look for UNDERS in the playoffs as everything gets ramped up a notch. In games played outdoors the UNDERS have really cashed nicely in the Wildcard round going 81-60-4 the last 145 games. Looks like cold weather in DC on Saturday night and we like this one to stay UNDER the total.

#127/128 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – Seattle @ San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Seattle’s defense has kicked it into gear over the last 6 weeks holding their opponents to just 13.7 PPG during that stretch. The UNDER has now cashed 7 straight weeks for Seattle. Last week they held a very good LA Rams offense that ranks 7th in the NFL in total YPG, to just 9 points. They’ve run the ball much more often taking some of the pressure off of Russell Wilson’s shoulders. He’s only averaged 206 YPG passing over this last 6 outings. If you throw out their 40 point effort vs the Jets a week after NY blew a potential win on the last play of the game, Seattle is averaging just 21 PPG over their last 7. San Francisco’s offense has been handcuffed ever since losing Garoppolo at QB. They have scored 24 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games. The Niners topped Arizona 20-12 last week with their defense holding the Cards to their lowest point total of the season and a full 2 TD’s below their season average. While Seattle’s defense has been red hot the Niner stop unit has been among the best in the NFL all season. They rank in the top 10 in YPG, YPP, YPC and yards per pass attempt allowed. Their defense ranks 6th in the NFL in DVOA (Football Outsiders) and the Seahawks are 16th in the same category after being near the bottom of the league for much of the early part of the season. These are 2 of the slower offenses in the NFL ranking 22nd and 24th seconds per play and they obviously know each other very well. Our projections have this one tabbed for the lower 40’s and with the current number at 46, we like the UNDER here.

#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver +3 over Las Vegas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Raiders should be flat as a pancake here having been eliminated from the playoffs in excruciating fashion last weekend. They opted not to score a TD (took a knee at the 1 yard line) in order to run clock and kick what looked like the game winning FG vs Miami with just 18 seconds remaining. The Fins however moved the ball into FG range in one play (Fitzpatrick long pass + personal foul penalty) and kicked a FG to win as time expired. Devasting loss for Vegas and now they head on the road in a meaningless game. Denver has a poor home record (2-5 SU) but they’ve played a brutally tough home slate (KC, Buffalo, New Orleans, Miami, Tampa Bay, Tennessee). Their most recent game they were creamed by Buffalo who is playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now. We expect them to play well here to atone for that poor performance. We were very impressed with the way the Broncos bounced back last week after that loss giving the Chargers all they could handle on the road. Denver lost 19-16 but outgained LA by 80 yards, had 7 more first downs, and topped them on the ground 133 to 89. If not for a number of dropped passes, including a few big plays and one that would have been a TD, the Broncos would have won the game. They are still playing hard and competing which is a good sign here as we don’t expect Vegas to do the same. The Raiders beat up on Denver earlier this year 37-12 but the score was a bit deceiving as the yardage was near even but the Broncs had 5 turnovers. Vegas is in a freefall. They were right square in the middle of playoff contention in mid November but have now lost 5 of their last 6 and been outgained and outrushed in 5 of those 6. Their offensive line is really banged up (starting all pro OT Brown is out) and RB Jacobs is hurting as well (only 13 carries vs Miami). Denver has a big edge defensively ranking 14th DVOA on Football Outsiders with Vegas ranking 28th. The leaky Raider defense has given up an average of 34 PPG over their last 6. Denver was +6 at home vs Buffalo, +7 vs KC, +3.5 vs Tennessee, +6 vs Tampa, and +4 vs Miami, all playoff teams. Now they are in the same range (+3 but dropping to +2.5) vs a non-playoff Raider team that very well might have packed it in for the season. Take Denver here.

#479/480 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 54 Points – Tennessee @ Green Bay, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Needless to say we don’t see many stops in this game. Green Bay QB Rodgers should have a field day. He’s facing a Titan defense that is the WORST in the league at pressuring the QB ranking last in sack percentage and last in sacks per game. The Tennessee defense has faced 580 drop backs this season and they have only 14 sacks. That 2.4% sack rate is brutally bad. Their pass defense stinks as well ranking 29th in the NFL in passing YPG allowed. The Titan defense has faced just 3 QB’s this year ranked in the top 10 in QBR and they are still one of the worst pass defenses in the league. In those 3 games vs top notch QB’s they’ve allowed nearly a 70% completion rate and an average of 3 TD passes per game. Rodgers is the best QB they’ve faced and this won’t be pretty. On the other side of the ball, we see a similar situation for the Packer defense. They’ve struggled stopping the run and with Derrick Henry and company ranking 2nd in the NFL in rushing, Tennessee will move the ball on the ground. That opens up the play action for Tannehill and GB’s defense will be on their heels for much of the game here. The Packers have faced 4 teams this season that rank in the top 10 in rushing and they allowed an average of 138 YPG on the ground in those games. The Titans have scored more points than any other team in the NFL this season and Green Bay has scored the 3rd most points. GB has scored at least 30 points in 10 of their 14 games while Tennessee has done the same in 9 of their 14. Both offenses are very efficient as well ranking in the top 5 in yards per point. Not only are both offense at the top of their game, they match up very well vs the opposing defenses as we touched on. Both teams get into the 30’s here and we’ll grab the OVER.

#475 ASA PLAY ON 10* LA Rams +1 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We love looking for good teams coming off bad losses and we couldn’t ask for a better spot than taking the Rams a week after losing to the Jets as a 17 point favorite. Over the last decade, there have been 10 teams that were favored by -13 or more, were above .500 at the time, and lost. Those teams bounced back to cover at an 80% rate the following week (8 of 10 covered). The Rams match up very well with the Seahawks beating them 5 of the last 6 meetings with their only loss during that stretch coming by 1 point. Seattle already has a spot in the playoffs locked up while the Rams do not. The winner of this game has the inside track to the NFC West title and we’ll take the team that’s better on both sides of the ball. LA has a huge edge defensively as they rate as the top defense in the NFL (total defense & YPP defense) and also rank as the #4 DVOA defense on Football Outsiders. Seattle ranks 25th in total defense and 20th in DVOA defense. There has been some chatter about Seattle’s defense improving over the last month which it has if you look at straight numbers. However, their last 4 opponents have been Eagles, Giants, Jets, and Redskins and all 4 of those teams rank 22nd or lower in total offense with the last 3 listed ranking 29th, 31st, and 32nd. The fact is Seattle struggled in 3 of those 4 games vs inferior opponents going to the wire in their tight wins over the Eagles and Redskins and in their home loss to the Giants. Their games vs the Giants and Redskins came vs back up QB’s McCoy and Haskins as well. The Rams & Seahawks have played nearly identical schedules being the same division and LA is +97 YPG on the season while Seattle is -6 YPG. LA has been an underdog 3 times and won 2 of those games outright with their lone loss in that spot coming by 3 points @ Buffalo. In their last 3 road games the Rams have outgained the Cardinals by 231 yards, outgained Tampa by 162 yards, and outgained Miami by 326 yards. We’ll take the better team in a must win spot here.

#461/462 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48 Points – Miami @ Las Vegas, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET - With this total set at 47.5 or 48 points, it’s the lowest total set on a Vegas game since November 1st when they had a total of 48 set @ Cleveland in gale warning winds. The Raider defense has been terrible this year especially as of late. For the season they rank 24th or lower in YPG allowed, YPP allowed, and PPG allowed (30 PPG). Over their last 5 games Las Vegas is allowing 36 PPG. The Miami offense doesn’t have great numbers, but they’ve been much better over the last month or so. Since Tagovailoa took over as the starter, his first 4 games the Fins averaged only 240 YPG of total offense and his last 3 they have averaged 386 total YPG. They rushed for 250 yards last week vs New England and we expect Miami to have their best offensive output since Tua took over vs the leaky Raider defense. The Miami scoring defense has great numbers. They are #1 in the NFL allowing 18.4 PPG however their overall numbers come nowhere close to matching up with those scoring numbers. They rank 18th in total defense, 22nd in YPP defense, 24th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and 26th in yards per rush allowed. Those are NOT the overall numbers of a team that is allowing 18.4 PPG. They’ve been very lucky in that regard. Miami has played the Jets, Broncos, Bengals, and Patriots (all ranked 27th or lower in scoring) 4 of their last 5 games holding 3 of those 4 to 12 points or less which has really helped their overall numbers. Against some of the better offenses they’ve faced this year, Miami has given up 33 (KC), 31 (Buffalo), 31 (Seattle), and 31 (Arizona) points. The Raiders have scored at least 27 points in 6 of their last 7 games and it looks like they’ll get starting QB Carr back for this game. Don’t be surprised if they use both Carr and Mariota in different packages keeping the Miami defense off balance. These two have gone OVER the total each of the last 6 meetings and the Raiders are 7-0-1 to the OVER their last 8 games as a home underdog. OVER is the play.

#451/452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51.5 Points – Minnesota @ New Orleans, Friday at 4:30 PM ET - Both of these teams are coming off high scoring games last week and we like to look at the UNDER the following week in this situation if at all possible. We think this sets up nicely for the UNDER while most will look at last week’s results and lean heavily toward the over. When Minnesota clicks on offense, it’s because their running game is rolling. If that happens, it opens up QB Cousins to have a big game with the pressure squarely taken off his back. Last week the Vikings were able to put up 199 yards on the ground vs Chicago and their offense looked very good scoring 27 points. This week they face a Saints defense that only allows 95 YPG on the ground and ranks as the #2 rush defense DVOA on Football Outsiders. In games where Minnesota didn’t top 120 yards rushing, they averaged just 20 PPG which is nearly a full TD below their season average. The Saints were in a shootout last week but that was expected as they were playing the Chiefs. New Orleans lost the game 32-29 but those 29 points came in just 285 total yards of offense. Drew Brees was shaky at best in his return completing only 14 passes (less than 50% completion rate) and he still has problems pushing the ball deep down the field ranking 18th in yards per pass attempt. The New Orleans defense played very well actually despite giving up 32 points they held KC to only 4.5 YPP. The Chiefs were able to speed that game up into a fast paced affair that had 141 offensive plays run. KC ran a ridiculous 91 plays which is 25 above their season average. Thus why they were able to score 32 points on just 4.5 YPP. This one should come in at a much slower pace as New Orleans & Minnesota both are in the top 7 in rushing attempts per game (which slows the game down and speeds up the clock) and they each rank 20th or lower in pace. Prior to last week’s game vs KC the Saints had played in 7 straight games where the combined score was 46 or lower. We see this one playing out similar to last year’s playoff match up in New Orleans where the teams combined for 40 points in regulation (Vikings won 26-20 in OT) and the two combined for only 611 total yards. Take the UNDER in this one.

ASA top play 10* on UNDER 44 NY Jets @ LA Rams, 4:05PM ET - The Jets competed two weeks ago at home against the Raiders then rolled over last week against Seattle in a 3-40 loss. New York managed just 185 total yards of offense and 3-points against a Seattle defense that is one of the worst in the NFL. The Seahawks are giving up 25PPG and over 390YPG which ranks 27th in the NFL. The Jets managed just 3-points the week before the Raiders against an average Miami defense too. Today New York runs into one of the two or three best defenses in the NFL in the Rams. Los Angeles is 1st in yards allowed per game at 286, 1st in passing yards against, 3rd against the run and 3rd in points allowed per game at 19PPG. On average it takes opponents 15.1 yards to score a point which is the 10th best number in the NFL. The Jets offense is horrible even with Sam Darnold under center. It takes the Jets 19.2 yards to score a single point which is last in the NFL by a wide margin. NY’s average yards per play is just 4.7YPPL, again, last in the NFL. Yes, the Jets have given up points this season but despite gaudy offensive statistics (total yards, rushing and passing) the Rams only average 25PPG which is in the lower half of the NFL. The Jets are slightly above average in terms of pace while the Rams are in the bottom half of the league when it comes to tempo. Scoring has continually dropped this NFL season so a Total this low doesn’t scare us off, especially when the Jets could legitimately get shutout here. Bet Under!

#353 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New England +1.5 over Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Pats are off a 24-3 loss @ LA Rams and they’ve had extra time to prepare for this game as that was on a Thursday.  Give Bill Belichick extra time to prepare his defense and you’re usually going to get a great scheme and effort.  Give him extra time to prepare facing a rookie QB and then watch out.  In his New England career, Belichick has faced 30 rookie QB’s.  His record in those games is 25-5 SU. The last 11 times he’s faced a rookie QB for the very first time, he’s 11-0 SU in those games.  This will be the first time he faces Miami QB Tagovailoa.  Two weeks ago New England was in a similar spot as a small road dog vs everyone’s rookie of the year QB Herbert for the Chargers.  What happened in that game?  Patriots won 45-0 holding Herbert to 0 TD’s and under a 50% completion rate with 2 picks.  Miami is coming off what looks like a close battle with KC last week as they lost 33-27 picking up the tight cover as 7-point underdogs.  The truth is, they were down 30-10 entering the 4th quarter and they were outgained 7.3 YPP to 4.8 YPP.  The 2 games prior to last week the Fins played the Jets & Bengals, the 2 worst teams in the NFL (Miami won both).  Since Tagovailoa took over, the Dolphins are 4-2 in his starts but they’ve been lucky to get to that mark as they’ve been dominated statistically.  In fact, if we throw out their game vs the Bengals (he didn’t start or play vs the Jets), in the other 5 games Miami has been outgained by 766 total yards.  We expect the NE defense to have lots of success here.  Offensively they should move the ball as well.  This is a bad match up for the Miami defense.  Their weakness is definitely stopping the run as they rank 21st in the NFL in YPG allowed on the ground and 26th in YPC allowed.  Facing a New England offense that runs the ball more than any other team with Newton at QB and ranks 5th in the NFL in rushing is not ideal for the Fins.  They’ve faced only two other top 10 rushing team this year in the Cardinals & Rams.  Arizona rushed for 178 yards on nearly 5 YPC and the Rams put up 131 yards rushing on 4.5 YPC.  Lastly, road underdogs of 6 points or less this season in games expected to be low scoring (total set at 45 or less) are 15-1 ATS.  We like New England to win this game.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina +8 over Green Bay, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET

The Panthers are much better than their 4-9 record.  For the season they are just -9 YPG and they actually outgain their opponents on a YPP basis (+0.1).  Those are normally the numbers of a .500 type team.  They have played a number of close games with 7 of their 9 losses coming by one score (8 points) which would get them a cover here at +8.5 or +9.  The Panthers are cashing at a 70% rate as a dog this season (7-3 ATS) and we think they’ll keep this one within a TD.  They get top WR Moore back in the line up and we love taking NFL dogs that can score points and Carolina can do that.  They are averaging 26 PPG when Bridgewater starts at QB and they should be able to put up points vs this Green Bay defense that is OK, but not great by any means.  The Packers have allowed at least 24 points in 3 of their last 4 games and the only offense that didn’t put up points over the last month vs this defense was Philly who has been a wreck on that side of the ball.  Green Bay clinched the NFC North last week with a win over Detroit so while they are still fighting for the #1 seed, we wouldn’t be surprised if they weren’t at the top of their game here.  Bridgewater is an amazing 18-2 ATS as an underdog in non-division games and we like him to get another cover on Saturday night.  Since their road opener @ Tampa, the Panthers have covered 5 straight road games including a 3 point loss @ New Orleans and a 2-point loss @ KC, two of the top teams in the NFL.  This one goes to the wire and we’ll take the points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Chargers +3 over Las Vegas, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - Vegas is absolutely heading in the wrong direction.  They have now lost 3 of their last 4 games and their last 3 games have been downright atrocious.  Three weeks ago they traveled to Atlanta to play a Falcons team that was 4-7 at the time.  The Raiders were dominated 43-6.  A week after that they trailed the winless Jets with just seconds remaining but connected on a hail mary to win by 3.  The LV defense allowed a terrible Jet offense to average 6.3 YPP in that game.  That’s a NY offense that ranks dead last in the NFL averaging 4.7 YPP on the season.  Last week in a must win game at home, the Raiders were again dominated losing 44-27 to the Colts.  The defense was again shredded for 7.7 YPP.  Now that already poor defense will be without 4 starters on Thursday night.  The Chargers have a poor record but at least they’ve been competitive which is more than we can say as of late for the Raiders.  With the exception of their no show a few weeks ago vs New England, seven of their eight other losses have come by one score (8 points or less).  They have some momentum coming off a home win vs the Falcons, the same team that walloped the Raiders 43-6 a few weeks ago as we mentioned above.  Being in the same division these two have played a very similar schedule.  Vs the schedule, the Chargers are +46 YPG on the season while Las Vegas is -15 YPG.  In the first meeting in November, Las Vegas won 31-26 however they were -10 first downs and -120 total yards.  LA looks like they’ll be the much healthier team here as WR’s Allen & Williams along with RB Ekeler all practiced this week despite being listed as questionable.  The dog is 17-6 ATS in this AFC West rivalry and there is no way we’re laying points with the Raiders the way they are playing right now.  Chargers are the side.

#151 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -8 over Detroit, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not sure how Detroit stops the Packers in this game.  Their defense ranks dead last in DVOA (Football Outsiders), 31st in scoring allowing 30 PPG, and 28th in YPP allowed.  Their pass defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL (29th in yards per pass attempt allowed) and they put no pressure on the QB (27th in sack percentage).  That’s a terrible recipe vs Aaron Rodgers and this red hot offense.  The Packers have scored 31, 41, and 30 points their last 3 games vs solid defenses (Indy, Chicago, and Philly).  What will they do this Sunday when they face one of the worst defenses in the NFL?  If the first meeting is any indication, it will be ugly.  The Packers put up 42 points in that game on nearly 500 total yards.  Detroit’s defense has given up 71 points in just the last 2 weeks including 30 points to Chicago.  Interim head coach Darrell Bevell led the Lions to a win last week at Chicago, but let’s face it there was some serious luck involved.  They were down 30-20 with less than 3:00 minutes remaining in the game and Chicago had the ball and a 10 point lead.  The conditions for offense in the dome will be perfect and Green Bay is averaging 37 PPG this season in the dome and many of those games are facing defenses a lot better than this Detroit team (New Orleans & Indy).  GB is going to score a vast majority of their possessions and the Detroit offense is going to have to keep up.  Matthew Stafford still has a bad throwing hand, his top RB Swift is most likely out again, and his top WR Golladay remains out.  Detroit has a grand total of 1 home win this season and that was a 3 point win vs Washington on a last second field goal in a game the Lions were outgained by nearly 100 yards.  Rodgers owns the NFC North with a 45-26 ATS record in his career.  A win here locks up the division and we like the Packers to roll here.  

#159/160 ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 45.5 Points – Houston @ Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This total is set too low.  We understand the season numbers for Chicago say bad offense, good defense.  Those numbers have changed over the last few weeks.  Trubisky is back at starting QB and like him or not, when he starts this year they are averaging 26 PPG.  Since taking over for Foles a few weeks ago, the Bears have scored 25 vs the Packers and 30 vs Detroit.  That success should continue here vs a bad Houston defense.  The Texans rank 27th in defensive DVOA (Football Outsiders), 30th in total defense, and 24th in scoring defense.  Last week they lost to Houston 26-20 combining for 46 points, however that was extremely deceiving.  The score at halftime was 24-20 and they scored a grand total of 2 points in the 2nd half despite plenty of chances.  The Houston offense played well averaging 6.4 YPP in that game vs one of the better defenses in the NFL.  With this total set at 45.5 or 46, we look at Houston’s full season and see their games have reached at least 46 points in 10 of their 12 games this year and one of those was @ Cleveland in gale force winds (the other they totaled 44 points vs Jacksonville).  They should have success vs a Chicago defense that is trending down.  They’ve allowed 41 and 34 points the last 2 weeks vs GB and Detroit.  Going back further, the Chicago defense has allowed at least 24 points in 5 of their last 6 games.  Weather can be a problem in Chicago this time of year, but not for this game.  Temps in the mid 30’s and very light winds (5 MPH).  With this game close to a pick-em a final score of 23-23 puts this at or over the number depending on your line.  We think both teams top 23 points in this game.  Take the OVER.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 45 Points – New England @ LA Rams, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - Most will look at the Patriots 45-0 win last week and think the offense lit it up.  Not the case.  In fact, the Pats had just 291 total yards in the game.  They benefited from a punt return for a TD and a blocked punt return for a TD.  Plus they were playing a bad Charger defense that has now allowed at least 27 points in 9 straight games.  A week earlier they scored 20 points in a win over Arizona and had only 179 total yards.  That’s 65 points the last 2 weeks despite averaging only 235 YPG.  That can’t continue.  Now they face one of the top defenses in the NFL.  The Rams are in the top 5 in total defense and scoring defense and they rank #1 in the NFL allowing only 4.6 YPP.  New England is in the bottom 10 in scoring averaging just 22 PPG.  In the 5 games this year the Ram defense has played a team currently ranked in the bottom 10 in scoring, they’ve allowed an average of 13 PPG.  Defensively, the Pats have been playing very well.  The have allowed 17 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games.  We’re not talking about poor offenses either as the 3 teams they scored 17 or less were the Ravens, Cardinals, and Chargers.  The Rams have played to the UNDER in 7 of their last 9 games and New England has gone UNDER in 4 straight.  With the spread set a Rams -5, the projected score in this game is LA 25 – New England 20.  We don’t think either team hits their projected score here and we like the UNDER. 

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo +2 over San Francisco, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - San Francisco has had plenty of distractions leading up to this game as they’ve had to move their entire operation to Phoenix where they will play the remainder of their “home” games.  Making it worse, the Niners have already been on the road 4 of their last 5 games.  This will be the 5th weekend they’ve been away from home since October 25th.  We also like the line value here.  Our power ratings have Arizona a few spots ahead of SF and Buffalo was +3 here vs the Cards just a few weeks ago.  Now they are +2 vs SF on this neutral site.  In that game vs the Cardinals on November 15th the Bills led 23-9 midway through the 3rd quarter.  That was the infamous hail mary game as Arizona QB Murray threw a 43 yard TD pass to WR Hopkins with 2 second remaining in the game to pull out a miracle 32-30 come from behind win.  Buffalo had this solid Arizona team beat on their home field.  SF’s defense has some solid numbers this year but they have struggled with mobile QB’s which Buffalo’s Josh Allen definitely is.  When facing Arizona (Kyler Murray), Seattle (Russell Wilson), New Orleans (Taysom Hill) and New England (Cam Newton) the Niners are just 1-3 with their only win coming vs the Patriots.  San Fran is getting some extra love after pulling the upset vs the Rams in their most recent game.  Let’s not forget prior to that upset, they had lost 3 in a row all by double digits.  QB Mullens is not a bet on signal caller in our opinion as he is just 5-9 in his 14 NFL career starts.  Seems like everyone is on the Niners here as we’ve flopped favorite as Buffalo opened as a 2.5 point favorite.  We’ll gladly take the value and go against everybody here. 

#467/468 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 47.5, NY Giants @ Seattle, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET - Seattle has changed their offensive philosophy over the last few weeks.  Pete Carroll is trying to take some pressure off Russell Wilson and run the ball much more often.  That’s what Carroll has always preferred anyway.  Now that RB’s Carson & Hyde are both healthy, they’ve run the ball 30+ times each of the last 2 weeks after running it 30 times just twice in their first 8 games.  The Seahawks have been successful running the ball as well with 241 yards on the ground the last 2 games.  Seattle ranked #1 in drop back rate (almost 70%) over the first 10 weeks but the last 2 games they’ve ranked 15th and 20th in that category.  Seattle has also been very deliberate on offense the last 2 weeks as they are dead last in pace over those 2 games.  With running the ball more often and slowing down their pace, they are also trying to give their defense, who has faced more snaps than any other team in the NFL, a break.  It’s working as the Seattle stop unit has allowed just 23, 21, and 17 points the last 3 weeks.  They should have success here vs a NYG offense that ranks 30th in scoring at 19.5 PPG and will probably be without their QB as Daniel Jones who is dealing with a hamstring issue.  Colt McCoy will most likely get the start for the Giants and he is more of a game manager than a big play QB.  Even with Jones under center, NYG has topped 21 points just 1 time in their last 6 games.  Defensively it’s another story for the Giants.  They are solid.  This is a top 10 defense (allowing 340 YPG) that over the last 6 games they’ve held their opponents to just 20 PPG.  The Giants have gone UNDER the total 6 of the last 7 times they’ve been a road underdog and we expect another low scoring game here.

#455 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis -3 over Houston, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We love this spot for Indy.  They are off a blowout home loss to Tennessee last week.  The defense, which was short handed last Sunday, allowed Tennessee 6.6 YPP which is their worst performance of the season.  Even with that, this Colt defense ranks 7th in the NFL in YPP allowed.  They were without their top DL Buckner and their top DE Autry who lead the team in sacks.  Both are back for this game and we expect an angry Indy defense that plays very well.  Offensively they were also without their top RB Taylor last week and he is back on Sunday.  Houston, on the other hand, has lost a number of key players this week.  Their top WR Fuller and top DB Roby have both been suspended for using PED’s.  The loss of Fuller is huge for this offense as he had become QB Watson’s favorite target with 22 catches for almost 400 yards over the last 4 games.  They are now really thin at WR after cutting Kenny Stills last week and losing Randall Cobb to injury.  That’s a big problem for a team that can’t run the ball (31st in the NFL averaging only 83 YPG on the ground).  On the other side of the ball the Texans rank 30th in total defense and 30th in YPP defense.  So that can’t run the ball, their defense has been poor, and they are now very inexperienced at WR.  Not a winning combination.  The Texans have won 3 of their last 4 but they’ve been outgained in each of those games.  They have 4 wins this year vs Jacksonville (twice), Detroit, and New England who are all below .500 and have a combined record of 10-23.  Indy is now sitting at 7-4 and 1-game behind Tennessee so a must win here.  Indy’s offense has scored 30+ in 4 of their last 6 games and should put up plenty of points vs a bad Houston defense.  The Colts are the better team and they are 7-0-1 ATS their last 8 trips to Houston.  Lay the FG here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 48.5 Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles, Monday 8:15 PM ET - We like the bargain number here as this game opened with a Total of 53 and slowly trickled down to the current number of 48.5. You know us, we love the extra value and will put ourselves on the same side as Vegas here.

Much of the talk surrounding the Eagles has been the poor play of QB Carson Wentz. But it’s clearly not all his fault as he’s been sacked 40 times this season. He should be able to get rid of the football much quicker in this game against a Seahawks defense that ranks 30th in opposing QB’s completion percentage against them.  Let’s also consider that Wentz has thrown 14 INT’s and fumbled 4 times so turnovers could lead to quick scores for the Seahawks.

Seattle allows the most yards per game in the NFL this season at 435YPG but they also rack up 400 yards per game offensively which is good for 3rd overall. The Hawks give up an average of 29PPG (27th) but scored 32PPG which ranks 2nd.

The lowest total posted on a Seattle game in the last eight weeks was 54.5 which is related to their high-powered offense and bad defense. Philly on the other hand is coming off a game in Cleveland where the total was 45.5, just a few points lower than this number, and the conditions were horrendous. Prior to that the Eagles had played three straight division games which tend to be lower scoring. Any way you cut it this shapes up to me higher scoring.

#271/272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 56 Points – Kansas City @ Tampa Bay, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - To hold Tampa’s offense in check, you need to have an elite pass rush.  Brady is not great when under pressure but if he has time, he’ll pick you apart.  Case in point, last week when the Bucs faced a top notch Rams pass rush, they were held to 251 total yards but still scored 24 points.  A few week’s prior to that they faced New Orleans, who is top 5 in sack percentage, and the Bucs scored just 3 points.  In their other meeting with the Saints they had 23 points.  If we take away their games vs top 10 rush defenses (sack percentage) the Bucs are averaging 34.5 PPG.  KC’s rush defense ranks 21st in the NFL.  The TB has solid overall stats but much of that came early in the season.  They have allowed 26 PPG over last 5 games and only 1 of those teams (Rams) ranked in the top 10 in total offense.  Now they face a KC offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in total offense, 2nd in YPP, and 1st in scoring.  The Chiefs are rolling offensively scoring at least 33 points in 4 straight games.  They’ve been held under 30 points only 3 times this season.  Their defense is another story.  They’ve been giving up points and yardage.  The last 2 games alone, vs Panthers & Raiders, they’ve allowed 31 points in each and over 400 yards in each.  They’ve allowed 30+ points in 3 of their last 6 games and 2 of the games they did not they were facing the Jets & Broncos, two of the worst offenses in the NFL.  Both of these teams like to play at a fast tempo with TB 10th and KC 14th in pace of play.  Those numbers are actually deceiving as they should both be ranked higher in pace of play.  They are ranked 3rd and 4th in first half pace of play and because they have gotten out to some big leads, they’ve slowed down in the 2nd half which affect their overall pace.  We don’t see either team getting out to a big lead here.  We look for a back and forth game in perfect weather in Tampa (80 degrees and light winds) and we’ll grab the OVER.

#267 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans -6 over Denver, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET - Looking at this number we can compare it to the Miami/Denver game last week and we see the value with the Saints. Last week a pretender the Miami Dolphins were just favored in Denver by 4 and now the Saints who might be the 2nd best team in the NFL are only -6.5.  Last week we felt the Broncos would be able to run on a Dolphins defense that is not good against the rush and they did it with 189yds. But Denver won't run here against the #1 ranked rushing D in the NFL allowing just 74RYPG and that puts the pressure on QB Drew Lock - who 2 weeks ago threw 4 INTS.  On the season Lock has 7 TD’s and 11 INT’s. New Orleans defense has 11 INT's this season tied for 4th most and could feast on Lock and the Broncos offense. In fact, the Saints produced 8 sacks last week vs. Atlanta and are 4th in the NFL at 3.2 sacks per game.  Just how dominant was the Saints defense last week against the Falcons? New Orleans just held Atlanta to 14 first downs and 52 rushing yards.  Saints QB Taysum Hill answered a lot of questions last week with his performance by going 18/23 passing with 233 yards NO INT’s. He’s also a duel threat under center with 51 yards rushing and 2 TD’s.  Consider this, last week the Saints averaged 6.8 Yards Per Play a FULL YARD more than their season average with Drew Brees. The Saints also average 10 Yards per pass attempt against the Falcons which is significantly better than their season average of 7.4YPPA.  Denver leans on a defense that is 9th in overall defensive efficiency but that typical advantage gets nullified here against a Saints offense that is clicking. The Saints have averaged 30PPG on: Tampa (2nd DEFF), San Francisco (10th DEFF) and Chicago (4th DEFF).  Just looking at raw data, New Orleans has a huge advantage offensively with the 5th most efficient offense compared to Denver who is last.  New Orleans has the 3rd best Margin of Victory this season at +7.3PPG / Denver loss margin -6.1PPG 28th in NFL.  We like the Saints laying under a TD here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51 Points – Houston @ Detroit, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET

Two poor defenses facing off on Thanksgiving and we like the OVER here.  Houston ranks 31st in total defense while Detroit ranks 27th.  They both rank low in overall defensive efficiency as well with Houston 29th and Detroit 25th (per Football Outsiders).  Each team’s offensive strength is their passing game and that matches up very well with the defensive weakness on the other side of the ball.  The Texans ranks 22nd in overall pass defense and 27th in defensive yards per pass attempt.  Detroit ranks 25th in pass defense and 26th in defensive yards per pass attempt.  We expect both offenses to move the ball very well in this game.  Detroit was shut out at Carolina last week 20-0.  We like that situation as we fully expect them to focus offensively after that embarrassing output.  They were also missing a number of key weapons that look like they may return on Thursday including RB Swift, WR’s Golladay & Amendola, and TE Hockenson.  Offense hadn’t been a problem for Detroit prior to last week.  In fact, they’ve faced 4 teams ranked in the top 10 in total defense this year and they’ve scored 30, 29, 23, and 21 points in those games.  Now they face one of the worst defenses in the NFL and we look for a big performance from the Lion’s offense.  The Houston defense has allowed at least 28 points in 6 of their 10 games and they only time they allowed less than 20 was vs Jacksonville (terrible offense) and vs Cleveland with 35+ MPH winds in a 10-7 game.  Houston’s offense has really started playing well as of late after a very tough early season schedule.  If we throw out their game in gale force winds in Cleveland where nobody was going to score points, the Texans have averaged 28 PPG over their last 5.  We know the conditions will be perfect in the Dome in Detroit.  Those conditions and the fast track has led to some very high scoring games in Detroit this year.  In fact, all of the Lion’s 4 home games have gone OVER and 10 of the last 11 games here have gone OVER.  This year they’ve scored 64, 62, 57 and 50 points in their home games.  The last 2 scores listed were vs Washington & Chicago who have very good defenses (both top 10) and terrible offenses (both bottom 5) and they still were high scoring games.  The final projected score here is right around Houston 27 – Detroit 24 and we expect both teams to top those numbers.  Take the OVER.

#473/474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 48.5 Points – LA Rams @ Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:15 PM ET- Two of the top defenses in the NFL facing off here and we grab the UNDER.  The Bucs & Rams rank 2nd and 3rd in total defense, 1st & 2nd in YPP defense, 8th & 3rd in scoring defense, and 1st & 5th in rush defense.  The offenses have had their moments but when facing top defenses, they’ve both been held in check for the most part.  Tampa has played 3 top 10 defense (YPP defense) and they’ve scored 3, 19, and 23 points in those games.  The Rams have scored more than 24 points only once in their last 6 games.  They’ve faced 3 defenses ranked in the top 10 in total defense and scored 16, 24, and 30 in those games.  Their 30 point output was vs Washington.  So combining the two they’ve only topped 24 points only once in 6 games vs top tier defensive teams.  The Rams rely heavily in the run ranking 8th in rushing yards and 5th in carries per game.  They face the #1 rush defense in the NFL here as Tampa has allowed just 76 YPG on the ground on 3.3 YPC.  Tampa hasn’t been a great running team this year (23rd in the NFL) and if they do try to establish a ground game, the Rams rank 5th in the NFL allowing just 96 YPG rushing.  So the QB’s will play a big role here.  The problem is, both defense are very good at pressuring the QB and neither QB is very good under pressure.  These 2 defenses are 2nd and 4th in sacks per game and 4th and 5th in sack percentage.  Brady has long been known as a poor passer under pressure because he can’t move.  This year he is completing only 46% of his passes under pressure which ranks him 29th when we limit it to QB’s who’ve started at least 2 games this year.  Goff is worse.  He comes in at 38% which ranks him 38th when compared to all other QB’s who’ve started at least 2 games.  We anticipate a grinder here with the 2 defenses being the best units on the field.  Take the UNDER.

#461/462 ASA PLAY ON 10*  Over 51 Points – Green Bay @ Indianapolis, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Indy’s defense has some impressive overall numbers.  They rank #1 in the NFL in total defense allowing 290 YPG.  The problem is, we feel those defensive numbers are inflated because they’ve only played ONE team this year that is currently ranked in the top 10 in total offense.  That was a Minnesota team that currently ranks 8th in total offense, however that game was way back on September 20th when Minnesota was still finding their footing.  The Vikes are MUCH better now offensively than they were back then.  Facing the Bears, Bengals, Jags, and Jets (4 teams ranked 22nd or lower in YPP offense) tends to pad your defensive numbers.  On a similar note, the Colt’s pass defense has very good numbers but they’ve played just ONE QB ranked in the top 10 in QBR.  On Sunday they face Aaron Rodgers who ranks #1 in the NFL in QBR this season.  The Packers have scored at least 30 points in 6 of their 9 games this year and are off a subpar offensive effort vs Jacksonville last week (24 points in high winds) so we expect a very good performance on that side of the ball.  They are fairly healthy as well with RB Jones getting back to full strength, WR Adams cleared to play and WR Lazard ready to go as well.  The Indy offense is rolling right now as well scoring at least 30 in 3 of their last 4 games.  They face a GB defense that has looked better the last 2 weeks holding Jacksonville (terrible offense) to 20 points and SF (without their QB or RB) to 17 points.  Prior to that when they actually faced decent offenses they allowed 30+ points to TB, Minnesota, and New Orleans.  Perfect playing conditions in the dome help to make this a high scoring affair.  In their indoor games this year where weather was not a factor Indy is averaging 29 PPG.  For GB they’ve played 3 dome games this season and scored 43, 37, and 35 points in those games.  Take the OVER

#460 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville +10.5 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Talk about a ho-hum type game for the Steelers. They are coming off a division game vs the Bengals and they have a huge rematch on deck vs Baltimore. Not only do they play their arch rival Ravens next, it’s on Thanksgiving Day just 4 days away. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if Pittsburgh was flat as a pancake in this game. Pittsburgh has a history of playing to the level of their competition. This year alone they went to the wire with the Broncos, Cowboys, and Texans. Just a few weeks ago they went to Dallas as a big favorite, got outgained, and never led until 2:00 minutes to go in the game (Pitt win 24-19). Speaking of playing to the level of competition, the Steelers are now 0-7 ATS the last 7 times they’ve been favored by 10 or more. Dating back to 1980, they are just 25-40 ATS as a double digit favorite (38%). Pitt is really struggling to run the ball as of late which we like to see if fading a big favorite. Over their last 3 games they’ve run for 48, 46, and 44 yards. That’s it. And 2 of those games came against Dallas & Cincinnati who rank 31st and 27th respectively defending the run. Despite their record Jacksonville is showing some fight. Last week they’ve gave a very good Green Bay team all they could handle at Lambeau in a 24-20 loss. The Jags, unlike the Steelers, have started to run the ball very well outrushing each of their last 3 opponents. During that stretch they rushed for 140, 115, and 109 yards vs Chargers, Texans, and Packers. New starting QB Luton has looked solid in his 2 starts taking both Houston and GB to the wire in tight losses (473 yards passing). Defensively they’ve also improved as of late. After allowing 30 or more points in 6 straight games, they’ve held Houston and Green Bay, 2 of the top 10 offenses on a YPP basis, to 27 & 24 points. Jacksonville is still putting forth solid effort. Pittsburgh is in a tough spot playing their fourth road game in five weeks. We like the Jags to hang around in this game and cover the big number.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle -3 over Arizona - Value is on Seattle here.  They are favored by 3 in this game which is the same number they were favored @ Arizona just a few weeks ago.  Zona won that game 37-34 in OT but Seattle outgained the Cards and led by 10 with just 3:00 minutes remaining.  Seahawks have lost 2 in a row which is why this number is low.  Those losses were @ Buffalo (Seattle had 4 turnovers) and @ LA Rams who were coming off a bye.  They are still undefeated at home this year.  Arizona hasn’t been on the road since October 19th.  They are coming off a 3 game home stand where all 3 went to the wire (Seattle, Miami, and Buffalo).  Last week they pulled a miracle win over the Bills on a hail mary as time expired.  Arizona is just 2-2 on the road despite playing one of the easier road slates in the NFL (Jets, Cowboys, Panthers, and Niners) who combined for a 9-29 overall record.  Arizona’s defensive line is banged up with only 3 healthy players and Seattle gets RB Hyde back from injury here.  The Seahawks rushed for 200 yards in the first meeting and they should have success on the ground here which opens things up for QB Wilson.  Speaking of Wilson, he has NEVER lost 3 games in a row since coming to Seattle.  We don’t think he will here.  If he can limit turnovers tonight (Seattle had 3 in the first meeting) we like the home team to cover.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago +3.5 over Minnesota, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - This line opened with the Bears favored by -1.5 and has swung a full 4 points to Minnesota -3.5.  Too much in our opinion and the Vikings don’t justify laying more than 3 in this game.  Sure the Vikes are 2-0 since their bye week beating Green Bay and Detroit, but they were +6 @ GB and just -3 at home vs Detroit.  Now they are laying more than that @ Chicago?  Bad line.  Minnesota was able to run the ball at will vs those 2 defenses which rank 23rd and 24th in the NFL in YPC allowed.  Now they face a top 10 rush defense with Chicago allowing just 4.1 YPC.  Last week the Bears faced a Tennessee offense that ranks 6th in the NFL in rushing and held them to just 92 yards on the ground on 3.0 YPC.  Derrick Henry had just 68 yards on 21 attempts.  The Bears lost that game but actually outplayed the Titans on the road with a +11 first down edge and +147 total yardage edge.  If Chicago can slow down Dalvin Cook that places the pressure on QB Cousins to win the game.  We know how that goes as he is known for not stepping up in big moments and is 0-9 SU on Monday night football.  The Vikings offense has looked good but they’ve played mainly average to poor defenses.  In fact, 7 of their 8 opponents rank 19th or lower in YPP defense this season.  The one top 10 defense they played this year was Indy and the Vikings scored only 11 points in that game.  Chicago will be the best defense they’ve faced since that game which was back on September 20th.  The Bears offense looked much better last week putting up 375 yards on Tennessee.  Tonight they face a Minnesota defense that ranks a few spots below Tennessee when it comes to YPP defense (25th overall) and we expect Chicago to do enough on offense to have a great shot to win this game outright.  The Bears are 4-0 SU vs the Vikings since Matt Nagy took over as HC and we give them a great shot at making that 5-0 tonight.  If not, we expect a very close game and getting over a FG at home with the much better defense is our pick.  Take the Bears.

#268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona -2.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - Buffalo picked up a huge home win last week over Seattle 44-34.  However, the yardage was about dead even for the game but Seattle had 4 TO’s and Buffalo scored points after each one of those turnovers.  Prior to last week, the Buffalo offense had not been playing well at all.  In their previous 4 games they had scored 16, 17, 18 and 24 points.  Their offense looked much better last week but they were playing the last ranked defense in the NFL (Seattle) along with the 4 TO’s which put the offense in a number of good field position situations.  The Buffalo defense continued to struggle giving up 6.7 YPP.  This defense is not even close to the same level as last year’s that allowed a full 1.0 YPP less.  Big win and now on the road will be tough for Buffalo who hasn’t played on the road since beating the hapless Jets 18-10 on October 25.  Arizona is playing their third straight home game and coming off a loss.  They should have some extra motivation off that loss and the fact that they play 3 of their next 4 on the road.  This is a big game for Arizona.  Last week they lost 34-31 vs Miami despite outgaining the Fins by 130 yards and +1.3 YPP.  The Cards come into this one ranking #1 in the NFL in total offense and #2 in rushing.  That’s going to be a problem for a Buffalo defense that has struggled to stop the run this year allowing 125 YPG.  Despite their records (Arizona is 5-3 / Buffalo is 7-2) the Cards own the better point differential (+54 to +9) and the better YPP differential (+0.5 to +0.3).  Arizona QB Murray has a big day vs the Buffalo defense and the Cards get the home cover.