#253 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jags -2 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - How the Steelers have a 4-2 record we have no idea. They’ve been outgained in every game this season. They are just the 2nd team since 1970 with a winning record through 6 games after being outgained in all 6. As you might expect based on those numbers, Pittsburgh is 26th in the NFL in YPP differential and every team below them has a losing record. The offense is bad ranking 31st in total offense, 28th in rush offense, and 25th in pass offense. They have topped 300 yards of total offense just once this season and that was facing a poor Raider defense. The Steelers are 2nd in the NFL in turnover margin which has helped their cause but can’t be counted on from week to week. The Jags are rolling right now. They’ve won 4 straight games both SU & ATS and they’ve had 10 days to get ready for this one after beating the Saints on the road last Thursday night. Jacksonville should control the ground game here as Pittsburgh’s defense weakness is stopping the run. They rank 28th in the NFL allowing 142 YPG on the ground and Jax is putting up 114 YPG rushing. On the flip side, the Steelers have been terrible on the ground barely rushing for 80 YPG. Pittsburgh is averaging 61.0 fewer rushing yards per game than their opponent, 31st in the league while Jacksonville is averaging 32.9 more rushing yards per game than their opponent, eighth in the league. Jags QB Lawrence is a bit banged up but has had extra time as we mentioned and practiced this week so we expect him to play. Big edge at QB and in the running game for Jacksonville so we’ll lay it.

#109/110 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 43.5 or 44 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Buffalo Bills, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 teams have combined to play 13 games this season and only 4 of those have gone Over the total. We expect another low scoring game on Thursday night. Tampa games are averaging just 34 total points this season and Buffalo games are averaging 45 total points. The Bucs offense has been below average all season long ranking 23rd or lower in total offense, scoring offense, and YPP average. They have scored 13 points or fewer in 3 of their last 4 games. We expect them to struggle vs a Buffalo defense that entered last week’s game vs New England ranked 12th in total defense but played poorly. They allowed a poor New England offense to average over 6.6 YPP and score 29 points. It was the worst performance from a Buffalo defense that has been solid for the most part all season including holding a dynamic Miami offense to just 20 points. We expect them to play with a chip on their shoulder on that side of the ball Thursday night. The Bills offense has been trending down since their win over Miami. Since scoring 48 vs the Fins, this offense has put up 20, 14, and 25 points the last 3 weeks. Even last week when they scored 25 points, 2 of those TD’s came on their final 2 possessions of the game when they were playing catch up. Prior to their final 2 offensive possessions, the Bills had 10 points and only 230 total yards. They’ve be facing a decent Tampa defense that’s rated higher than 2 of Buffalo’s last 3 opponents. The Bills are one of the slowest paced teams in the NFL, 30th in plays per second, and TB ranks middle of the pack in that category. NFL prime time Unders (Sunday night, Monday night, and Thursday night games) have been fantastic with a 133-85-4 spanning the last 5+ years (61% Unders). It looks a bit windy in Buffalo on Thursday evening with sustained winds around 10 MPH and gusts up to 20 MPH. Under is the play on Thursday.

ASA top play on 10* San Francisco 49ers -7 at Minnesota Vikings 8:20 PM ET - Let’s start with the fact that the 49ers are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL while the Vikings are one of the worst. San Franisco is 2nd in the league in rushing attempts and 7th in yards per rush at 4.5 per carry. The Vikings are 32nd in rushing attempts per game and 21st in yards per rush at 4.0. You simply cannot be one-dimensional against a defense of this Niners caliber and expect to compete. Not to mention, the Vikings are without their best overall offensive player in WR Jefferson. San Francisco rates top 10 in most offensive and defensive categories while the Vikings rank around league average or worse. The Niners have some injuries on offense, but this loaded roster can overcome those shortcomings. The Vikings cannot. It’s well documented how Minnesota QB Cousins has struggled on MNF with a 2-10 SU record. Not only is his Monday night record bad, but his yards per game passing, interception rate and touchdown percentage, are also much worse. San Francisco is coming off a loss and are 7-4 ATS their last eleven in that situation, 3-1 ATS their last four with an average margin of victory in those games of +7.8PPG. Lastly, the 49ers were just favored by -8.5 points at the Browns who have the best defense in the NFL and are now laying less at the middle of the pack Vikings.

#472 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 over Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re siding with the Eagles at home in a very solid situational spot in our opinion. We’re getting one of the top teams in the NFL, at home, and coming off a loss as a favorite. Philly lost @ NY Jets last Sunday 20-14 but they dominated the flyboys in the stat sheet. The Birds outgained the Jets by over 100 yards and by +1.0 YPP. They lost the turnover battle 4-0 which was the difference in the game despite dominating the stats. The Jets scored half their points off Philly turnovers including an 8 yard TD drive with under 2:00 minutes remaining after the Eagles turned the ball over with the lead. We think Miami is overvalued based on their blowout wins vs bad teams. Since beating the LA Chargers by 2 points to open the season on a late TD the Miami wins have come vs New England, Denver, NY Giants, and Carolina. Those 4 teams have a combined record of just 3-21! The one high level team Miami played this year @ Buffalo, the Fins were destroyed 48-20. Miami has great offensive stats, but again, their opponents have been weak and their 70-20 win over Denver (Fins had over 700 total yards) is really making their overall stats look better than they actually are. They’ve already faced 3 of the bottom 6 defenses in the NFL. Philly’s defense is solid ranked in the top 10. Speaking of top 10, the Eagles are one of only 4 teams (SF, KC, Detroit, and Philly) that are ranked in the top 10 in both total offense and defense. We like this defense (#2 in the NFL allowing 65 YPG) to slow down Miami’s #1 rushing attack (181 YPG) and make the Fins one dimensional which is key. On the other side, Philly’s offense (#2 in the NFL) should have success running the ball vs a Miami defense thar ranks 20th vs the run and 20th in total defense. This will be just the 3rd home game for Philadelphia this season (2-0 so far) and they’ve won 14 of their last 17 home games. We like them to win this one by at least a FG.

#469/470 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 45 Points – Green Bay Packers vs Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Both teams have had extra time to prepare, Green Bay off a bye and Denver played on Thursday night, and we expect both offenses to click. The Broncos defense is historically poor to this point in the season ranking dead last in scoring defense, total defense, and YPP allowed. Only 15% of drives vs this Denver defense have gone 3 and out which is by far the lowest in the league and they’ve allowed at least 28 points in 4 of their last 5 games. The Green Bay offense struggled in their most recent game vs Las Vegas, however coming off a bye they are getting healthy on that side of the ball. RB Jones is back, they are getting healthier on the Oline and at the WR position. Jones makes a huge difference in the run & pass game and in the 2 games he played this season, the Packers scored 58 total points. Offensively the Broncos have been solid this season. They are 5th in the NFL averaging 5.9 YPP and 4th putting up 4.9 YPC on the ground. Denver will have success on the ground vs a Green Bay defense that is allowing 143 YPG rushing and 42.5% of the yardage allowed by Green Bay has been via rushing, the highest rate in the league. Meanwhile the Denver rushing attack has been explosive ranking 2nd in the NFL in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (15.6%). That ground game will open up Russell Wilson and their passing attack. We’re getting perfect weather for this one with light winds, sunny, and temps in the low 70s. We like the match up for both offenses here and this one goes Over.

#451 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Falcons +2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - If we were to give you the stats of last week’s Falcons/Commanders game after the fact, we’re pretty sure you would have bet a large sum of money on Atlanta. The Falcons outgained the Commanders 402 total yards to 193 and 5.1YPP to 4.3YPP but still lost 16-24. Atlanta had a +13 minute time of possession advantage too but 3 turnovers to 0 was too much for the Birds to overcome. Tampa Bay’s offense was exposed last week by the Lions in a 6-20 loss at home where they managed just 251 total yards of offense and 4.7YPP. The Bucs offense ranks 25th in total yards per game (291) gained and yards per play 4.9YPP. Tampa is one dimensional on offense with a rushing attack that averages just 3.0YPC which is last in the league. The Bucs will have a tough time scoring in this game with a running game that generates very little success rate and a passing O that will be facing a Falcons pass D that is 4th in the league. Atlanta allows just 179PYPG and ranks 11th in opposing QB’s completion percentage. Atlanta runs for 119YPG which is 10th best in the NFL. QB Ridder has thrown for over 630 total yards in the Falcons last two games with 3 TD/3INT’s. Atlanta has a net yards per play differential of +0.3YPP compared to the Bucs negative differential of minus -0.3YPP. The Falcons should be a rush-doubling underdog in this one which is one of the stronger NFL angles dating back to the mid-1980’s

#312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Saints -115 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Jags QB Lawrence has a banged up knee and may not play in this game. They just moved QB Nathan Rourke up from the practice squad so he is available on Thursday night. That might be a sign that Lawrence may not play or at the very least is not close to 100%. Either way we like this spot for the host Saints. The Jags are in a terrible situational spot for this game. They spent 2 weeks in London, came back and played the following Sunday at home vs Indy and now are on the road again on a short week. Many of the Jacksonville players were commenting on how tough it was physically to come back from a longer than normal stint in London and have to play right away the following weekend. How are they going to feel now away from home on a short week coming right after that? The Jags are overvalued right now in our mind. They won both games on London but were outgained in both on a YPP basis 5.0 to 4.7 vs the Falcons and 7.2 to 5.8 vs the Bills. The same thing happened last week as they were outgained by a full 1.0 YPP vs the Colts and won. Turnovers have been key as the Jaguars have a +6 TO margin in those 3 games alone. They have a takeaway on 20.3% of their opponents possessions this year which is 2nd in the NFL. Can that continue? It’s going to be tough to keep up that pace on turnovers which has helped them immensely this season. The Saints are coming off a loss @ Houston in a game they outplayed the Texans soundly. New Orleans put up 430 total yards in the loss to just 297 for Houston. Mistakes were the difference in that one as the Saints missed 2 FG’s, were shut out on downs at the Houston 15 yard line, and threw an interception at the Houston 24 yard line. The Jags offense has been held under 5.0 YPP in 2 of their last 3 games and they are possibly without their QB facing a New Orleans defense that allows only 4.6 YPP (4th best in the NFL). For the season, New Orleans are 3-3 with a YPP differential of +0.04 (14th in the NFL) and a point differential of +13. Jacksonville is 4-2 yet their YPP differential is -0.75 which is 26th in the NFL with a point differential of +20. The Saints are sitting right about where we’d expect with those numbers while Jacksonville is vastly overvalued as we stated earlier. Lay the small money line price with New Orleans at home.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Cowboys -125 @ LA Chargers, Monday 8:15 PM ET - We will back the much better defense and Cowboys who are off an embarrassing loss to the 49ers last week. Dallas comes into this game ranked 8th in DVOA defense and the strength of the unit is their pass D which is the Chargers strength offensively. Dallas allows opposing QB’s to complete just 60.2% of their pass attempts which is 6th best in the league. The Cowboys hold opponents to 169 passing yards per game which is 2nd best in the NFL. The Chargers have the advantage offensively with a unit that is 5th in total yards per game gained and yards per play but this will be the best defense by far that they have faced this season. None of the Chargers opponents rank higher than 19th in the NFL in defensive DVOA so their offensive numbers are a bit misleading. Under Coach McCarthy the Cowboys are 10-1 ATS when coming off a loss and they’ve won those games by an average of +17.4PPG. Back the Boys here.

#267 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -3 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - TB has been a surprise with a 3-1 record to start the season. However a deep dive reveals they are +7 in turnover margin in their 3 wins who have come vs Minnesota, Chicago, and New Orleans who have a combined record of 5-10. Despite their winning record, the Bucs are getting outgained on a YPP basis this season. The one good team they’ve faced was Philadelphia who rolled TB 25-11 and outgained them by 2.1 YPP and that game was in Tampa. The Lions had a lot of publicity coming into the season and we were wary of this team. Mainly on the defensive side of the ball after finishing 30th or lower in YPP allowed in each of the last 3 seasons. They’ve proven us wrong so far this season as this Detroit team looks very good on both sides of the ball. They are one of two teams that currently ranks inside the top 6 in both total offense and total defense. The other is San Francisco. DVOA has Detroit ranked as the 3rd best team in the NFL behind only San Francisco and Buffalo. They are ranked the 4th best offense and 3rd best defense per DVOA. The Lions only loss was in OT vs Seattle and the Lions outgained the Seahawks 6.5 YPP to 5.9 YPP in that game but had 3 turnovers (0 for Seattle). Detroit has one of the best YPP differentials in the NFL at +1.1 and they’ve been a money making juggernaut covering 13 of their last 15 games dating back to last season. Lay the FG here.

#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis Colts +4 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Just a terrible situational spot for Jacksonville. They just played back to back weeks in London so they’ve been overseas for 2 weeks. Coming home to play the next Sunday will be tough as the body clocks will take until mid week to adjust back. Also, being away for 2 weeks and then coming home is a distraction in itself having to get caught up on things back at home, seeing family again, etc… The Jags were 2-0 in their London trip but they were outgained in both games on a YPP basis vs Atlanta and Buffalo. In their win over the Falcons the Jaguars were gifted with 3 Atlanta turnovers, including a 61 yard pick 6, but Jacksonville only averaged 4.7 YPP. Last week vs Buffalo, they caught the Bills in a perfect spot after rolling over Miami a week earlier in a huge AFC East game. Then the Bills waited until Friday to travel to London while Jax had been their for a week plus already. Even with that, the Bills averaged 7.2 YPP while holding the Jags to 5.8. The Jags are 0-2 SU & ATS at home this year where they have very little home field advantage. As a starting QB, Trevor Lawrence is 0-5 ATS as a home favorite winning only 1 of those games outright. Indy is playing well right now. They’ve won 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss coming vs the Rams in OT in a game the Colts ran 20 fewer offensive snaps and still took LA to overtime. These 2 met in the first game of the season and while Jacksonville won 31-21, the Colts were starting rookie QB Richardson in his first every start and Indy led 21-17 with just over 5 minutes remaining in the game. Both teams are 3-2 on the season but the Colts have a better point differential (although very close) and a better YPP differential. We think Indy has a very good shot at the upset and if not, we’re getting some generous points.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 47 Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 PM ET - This line opened 51 at some books and was quickly bet down to the current number. We will grab that added value and side with the Bookmakers number in this AFC West rivalry. Let’s start with the Broncos defense that has the worst statistical DVOA numbers in the HISTORY of the NFL. The Bronco give up over 450YPG (32nd), 7.2YPP (32nd), 187RYPG (30th) and 5.9-yards per rush (32nd). They allow opposing QB’s to complete 77.3% of their pass attempts, also last in the NFL, and give up 11.1 yards per competition. Now consider this. Those horrific overall numbers, but specifically passing stats come against four of five bad QB’s in: Sam Howell, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Jimmy Garappolo. Now they face Patrick Mahomes who is arguably the best QB in the game and a guy building a Hall of Fame resume. KC owns a top ranked offense in many statistical categories including: Yards Per Game, Yards Per Play, Rushing Yards per attempt etc… The Chiefs are averaging 25.6PPG, while the Broncos are allowing 36.2PPG. The Broncos are allowing 1 point scored per every 12.4 yards gained by opponents. Based on the fact KC averages 381YPG that translates to 30.7 points for the Chiefs. Denver is going to score here too. They average 328YPG but more importantly, 6.1YPP which rates 5th best in the NFL. They average 4.9 Yards per rush (4th) and are 13th in overall passing yards per game. They own the 10th highest scoring offense in the NFL at 24.2PPG and rank 7th best in Yards Per Point at 13.0. Last season these two teams combined for 51 and 64 total points in the two meetings. Bet this number before the line trends back up.

#475/476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 45 Points – Green Bay Packers vs Las Vegas Raiders, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Jimmy Garoppolo is back under center for the Raiders and we like this to be a higher scoring game. Last week the Raiders were poor offensively averaging only 3.8 YPP vs the Chargers, however Garoppolo sat with a concussion and rookie QB O’Connell was in over his head in his first career action. With Garoppolo at QB the first 3 games the Raiders averaged 5.4 YPP which is a huge upgrade from O’Connell’s performance last week. Las Vegas has struggled to score points at times this season, however much of that is due to turnovers. They have a -9 turnover margin which is worst in the NFL and that has led to them running the 4th fewest offensive snaps in the league this year. That has led directly to their lower scoring numbers. If they can take care of the ball here, they should be successful vs a Packers defense that ranks 20th in the league allowing 24 PPG. That’s despite facing to of the worst 7 offenses in the NFL on a YPP basis (Saints and Falcons). The GB offense is starting to play well under new QB Love. They’ve scored at least 20 points in every game but 1 this season and that was vs the Saints who rank in the top 10 in a number of key defensive categories. The Packers scored 18 in that game. They’ve been very efficient offensively scoring 1 point for every 11 yards gained which is #1 in the NFL. That should continue vs a Las Vegas defense that ranks 20th or lower in total defense, scoring defense, YPP allowed, and 3rd down efficiency. The Raiders have now allowed 20 or more points in 19 of their last 23 games. Perfect scoring conditions on Monday night at Allegiant Stadium we expect this one to go Over the total.

#473 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas Cowboys +4 at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This is a rematch of the playoff meeting between these two teams when the Niners won at home 19-12 as a -3.5-point favorite. That game was relatively close throughout with the 49ers averaging 5.1YPP compared to Dallas and their 4.7YPP. These two teams along with Philadelphia are the best of the NFC and we expect this game to be decided by a field goal or less either way. Dallas is 4th in scoring at 31PPG but have largely failed in Red Zone scoring percentage at 36.8%. They have received some scoring help from their defense but clearly the offense is better than their overall numbers. The Cowboys have kept the chains moving by converting 51.61% of their 3rd downs with the 7th best rushing offense in terms of total yards. QB Dak Prescott also has the 6th best completion percentage in the NFL. Obviously, San Francisco has incredible offensive numbers ranking 3rd in rushing YPG and 9th in passing YPG. Defensively these two teams have plenty of similarities and if you look you’ll see both rate top 5 in most key categories. The one slight advantage the Cowboys have will be in pressuring Niners QB Purdy as Dallas has the 2nd best sack percentage in the league. These are two very even teams and getting more than a field goal with Dallas is the way to play it.

#466 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals +3.5 over Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Cincy is living on their past few years because this team isn’t good right now. They rank dead last with a -1.7 yards per play differential. They have 1 win and in that 3 point victory over the Rams they were actually outgained by 1.3 YPP. QB Burrow not close to 100% and that’s obvious. He needs to sit and rest his calf to get healthy but they continue to play him. He’s dead last in the league in QBR and has zero mobility. The Cards were expected by most to be terrible this season. While they only have 1 win, they’ve proven that not to be the case. This team plays hard under new head coach Gannon and believe it or not, offensively Arizona is averaging 1.7 YPP more than the Bengals this season. The last 2 weeks the Cards have played what most consider to be the 2 best teams in the NFC and played well for the most part. The beat the Cowboys here at home by 12 points 2 weeks ago and it was no fluke. Arizona averaged an impressive 7.5 YPP in that game while holding Dallas to just 5.5 YPP. Last week they did lose @ San Francisco by double digits but that was a 5 point game in the 4th quarter. The Bengals are averaging a league low 12 PPG and this is their 2nd straight week on the road after getting roasted @ Tennessee 27-3 last Sunday getting outgained 400 to 211. The Bengals continue to be overvalued on past laurels and have failed to cover the spread in any game this year losing to the number by 53 combined points. We think Zona has a solid shot at the outright win. Take the points.

#305/306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44 Points – Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bears defense is among the worst in the NFL and has been for the last few years. They have now allowed 25 or more points in 14 straight games dating back to last season. Chicago ranks 29th in YPP allowed (6.2), 31st in scoring defense (34 PPG), 32nd in Yards Per Completion, 31st in Yards Per Pass Attempt, and 31st in opposing quarterbacks QBR. Washington QB Howell has been improving each week and last Sunday he completed over 70% of his passes for 290 yards vs a very good Philadelphia defense. He should have a field day on Sunday. The Chicago offense broke out last week with 28 points on 6.7 YPP and QB Fields was 28 of 35 for 335 yards and 4 TD’s. They are facing a Washington defense that ranks 29th allowing 30 PPG which is a full TD more than the league average. The Commanders have allowed 30+ in each of their last 3 games. They are especially susceptible vs the run allowing 4.5 Yards Per Rush (26th) and 122.5RYPG (21st). That plays into one of Chicago’s strengths as they rank 5th in Yards Per Rush at 4.7 and 13th in overall rushing YPG. The weather looks perfect in DC on Thursday night with temps in the low 70’s, no precipitation, and very light winds. Both offenses should thrive here and we’ll grab the Over.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY GIANTS +2 vs. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, 8:20 PM ET - This is one of those ‘plug your nose’ bets as the Giants have not looked good this season and currently stand 1-2 SU. Clearly a big reason for that losing record is the schedule they’ve faced with games against the Cowboys, 49ers and a better-than-expected Cardinals team. Dallas and San Francisco are arguably the two of the best defenses in the league along with the Browns. So, when you look at the Giants offensive numbers it’s understandable why they are so disappointing. Seattle on the other hand has faced a soft schedule with the Panthers, Rams and Lions. The win in Detroit is solid but the Lions were off a huge MNF win against the Chiefs and simply overlooked this Seahawks team that lost to the Rams in the opener. The Seahawks are 24th in the league in sacks per game and 29th in sack % defense. They don’t possess a pass rush capable of getting to Giants QB Jones. The Giants can get to Hawks QB Smith as the Seattle offensive line has been hit hard with injuries. The Yards Per Play differential for the Giants is not a pretty number as they are minus -1.1YPP, but again look at who they’ve faced. Seattle also has a negative differential as they average 5.6YPP on offense but allow 5.8YPP. Seattle has been a road favorite just 5 times since 2021 and they shouldn’t be laying points here.

#273/274 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5 Points – New England Patriots vs Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both teams in this one. Dallas was lights out their first 2 games allowing 10 total points but had a letdown last week @ Arizona. After that poor performance we expect them to be very motivated at home in this one. The Boys are allowing only 4.8 YPP on the season and teams are averaging only 25 yards per drive which is 3rd best defensive mark in the NFL. They are facing a pedestrian New England offense that hasn’t scored more than 20 points in any game yet this season. Against a similar high level defense last week, the Pats scored only 13 offensive points (vs Jets). New England is NOT explosive offense with only 1.4% of their offensive snaps gaining 20 yards or more – worst in the league. Defensively New England has been very good. They held the potent Miami attack to just 24 points – Fins scored 36 and 70 in their other 2 games. For the season, including the Miami game, the Patriots are allowing only 4.4 YPP which is 4th best in the NFL. Only 18% of opponents drives have reached the redzone or score prior to that vs New England’s defense. That’s the 2nd best rate in the NFL. Belichick knows defense, no doubt about that. Our projections have this as a low scoring game and we’ll grab the Under here.

#255 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Vikings -4.5 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - All 0-3 teams are not created equal. Both teams 0-3 but Vikes could easily be 3-0 with 3 losses by combined 13 points. In their first 2 games of the season Minnesota outgained both TB & Philly by more than +1.0 YPP. Last week’s 4 point home loss to the Chargers also could easily have gone Minnesota’s way as their final 2 drives they were shut out on downs at Chargers 2 yard line and then threw a pick in the end zone. The main problem has been turnovers. The Vikes are minus 7 turnovers worst differential in NFL. Offensively they’ve been really good ranking 2nd in the NFL in YPP and 3rd in total offense (over 400 per game) and 82% of their scoring plays have been TD’s so they can score. That will be a problem for Carolina as we do not envision the Panthers keeping up on the scoreboard in this game. Panther QB Bryce Young comes back on Sunday which is a plus for Minnesota as backup Andy Dalton actually gives them a better chance to win right now. The Panther offense has been bad with Young under center scoring only 2 offensive TD’s this season and averaging just 4.1 YPP. Young makes ver few big plays with Young ranking dead last in yards per pass attempt (a lot of short passes). Despite their winless record, the Vikings have a positive YPP differential (+0.6) while Carolina is getting outgained regularly (-0.6 YPP differential). If Minnesota can straighten out their turnover issues, they should win this game comfortably.

ASA Top Play on 10* Detroit Lions -1.5 at Green Bay Packers, Thursday 8:15PM ET - One big advantage the Lions have over the Packers in this game is their offensive line is much better than Green Bay’s. The Packers are without two starters on the O-line here in Bakhtiari and Jenkins who provide valuable protection for QB Love and running lanes for RB Jones. Green Bay will get Aaron Jones and WR Watson back for this game, but it may not matter if Love doesn’t have time to throw the football. Detroit allows just 4.6YPP this season which is 6th best in the NFL. The Lions are giving up just 3.2 yards per rush attempt which is 5th best in the league. In comparison, the Packers allow 4.3 yards per rush (18th) and 5.0YPP overall which is 16th. Offensively, the Lions have an edge here too with one of the better O-lines in the NFL. Detroit is averaging 5.8YPP (7th best) versus Green Bay who averages 5.0YPP (16th). These two teams both faced the Falcons this season. Detroit dominated the Falcons in a 20-6 win with 358 total yards to 183 and a YPP advantage of 7.4YPP to 3.1YPP. Green Bay faced this same Atlanta team the week before (lost 24-25) and gave up 446 total yards to the Birds, 5.7YPP while gaining just 224 total yards themselves at 5.4YPP. Detroit has won and covered 3 of the last four meetings with the Packers and even though Love has played well, we like the veteran QB Goff and the Lions in this one. Detroit is on a 14-6 ATS streak dating back to the start of last season and cash the ticket here.

#471/472 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 43 Points - Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - In Week #1 of the NFL season the Unders were 12-4. In Week #2 the Overs came in with a 13-3 record. The oddsmakers have adjusted their numbers up on this game and we will bet contrarian with an Under wager. The Cowboy’s defense is ‘that’ good! They have given up 10 total points this season and the touchdown allowed was a 68-yard play to the Jets last week. Ask yourself this, would you be surprised if the Cardinals didn’t score here? We wouldn’t. Dallas held the Giants offense to 171-total yards in the opener, then held the Jets to 215 last week with 68 coming on one long TD pass. Take that 1 TD play away last week and the Cowboys allowed just 3.4YPPL. In Week #1 the Cowboys put up 40-points but two scores came by special teams and the defense. Last week against the Jets, the Cowboys (McCarthy) went ultra conservative in the 2nd half with 4 field goals. Dallas has averaged just 4.7YPP which ranks 24th in the league. Arizona is averaging 5.0YPP offensively which is 21st. Both teams average abnormally high Yards Per Points offensively, but we expect a regression in those numbers. Dallas now has two weeks of film on Cards QB Dobbs and will have a gameplan in place to pressure the unproven QB. The pace of play clearly favors a lower scoring contest as the Cardinals are 27th in pace with a play run every 30.1 seconds. Dallas is nearly as slow (25th) at a play run every 29.9 seconds. With the potential of Arizona scoring 10 or less points, and the Cowboys conservative play calling we like Under the total.

#455/456 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 44 Points - Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The first aspect we like about this game is the fact that both teams prefer to play fast, which leads to more plays/possessions per game and potentially more scoring opportunities. The Jags are 12th in play per second at 27.9, the Texans are 5th at 25.5 seconds p/play. After putting up 31-points in their opener, the Jags managed just 9-points last week against a very good Kansas City defense that had Chris Jones back in the lineup. Jacksonville had three potential TD drives that turned into FG’s when receivers didn’t get their feet down inbounds in the endzone. The Jags were 9th in scoring a year ago at 23.9PPG and 12th in Yards Per Points offensively at 15.0. The low scoring output last week was not a true indicator of this offensive unit, and we are betting they bounce back here, especially against this Texans defense. Houston is giving up 28 PPG and just allowed 31 to a Colts team with a rookie QB making his first start on the road. The Colts averaged 6.3 Yards Per Play against this Texans D after averaging just 4.8YPP a year ago (31st). Houston may have found their QB of the future with CJ Stroud who played extremely well last week against Indianapolis. Stroud was 30/47 for 384 passing yards with 2 TD’s. The Texans converted 9 of 19 3rd downs and managed 24 first downs in the game despite losing. The average total points scored in an NFL game this season is 45.4PPG. This game will not be less than average.

#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco -10 over NY Giants, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Really tough spot here for an NYG team that looks like they’ve regressed from last years playoff team. The Giants were @ Arizona last week and trailed 20-0 at half vs what we consider one of the 3 worst teams in the NFL. That means over their first 6 quarters of play this season, NY went scoreless (lost 40-0 vs Dallas in week 1). They did storm back to win last week 31-28 vs Arizona but San Francisco ain’t Arizona. Now on the west coast for the 2nd straight week (NYG did stay on the west coast after last week’s game but still not an ideal situation) but now facing one of the best defenses in the NFL, if NY gets down here, they won’t be making a huge comeback in our opinion. The Niners look like one of the two best teams in the NFC, along with Dallas, and they’ll be playing their home opener here. We were on SF last week and while they won by a TD (LA Rams kicked FG as time expired) is should really have been worse as the Niners outgained the Rams by +2.0 YPP. QB Purdy missed a few open deep shots that would have blown the game open. The 49ers currently sit 2nd in the NFL averaging 6.3 YPP and we expect them to have plenty of success on Sunday vs a Giant defense that allowed a bad Arizona offense to put up 6.3 YPP. That’s the same Arizona offense that averaged 3.6 YPP in week 1 vs Washington. New York is banged up with 2 starting offensive linemen out along with RB Barkley most likely out and their defense has allowed 68 points in 2 games. San Fran is stronger in the trenches on both sides of the ball and we don’t think NYG can keep up vs this defense. SF should roll here.

ASA top play 10* on #289 New Orleans Saints -3 at Carolina Panthers, Monday 7:15PM ET - The Panthers look like a team that is in for a long season. They’ve been hit hard on their offensive line already this season and start a rookie QB in Young. Young threw 2 INT’s last week and the offense managed just 3.9YPPL against a Falcons D that allowed 5.7YPPL in 2022. It will be tough sledding Monday night against a Saints defense that was 4th in Yards Per Play allowed a year ago at 5.0. The Saints hung on for a win in Week 1 against the Titans and looked much better than the 16-15 final margin. New Orleans put up over 350-total yards and averaged 5.5YPPL. Defensively they held the Titans to 285-total yards and 4.9YPPL. Saints QB Carr looked good in his Saint’s debut going 23/33 for 305YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT. If Young felt pressure last week against the Falcons, just wait until he gets a load of this Saints pass rush. To make this point, the Falcons, ranked 32nd or last in the NFL in sack percentage defense a year ago. In comparison, this Saints defense was 4th best in sack% at 8.22% in 2022. Last season the Panthers defense was around league average in YPPL allowed at 5.5. They were 23rd in opponents’ completion percentage allowed and 14th in Yards Per completion allowed at 10.1. Last week the Panthers D wasn’t tested by a Falcons passing attack that averaged just 6.1 yards per completion. Today Carolina’s secondary will get a stiff test from a Saints offense that wants to push the football down the field. The Saints lost to this Panthers team twice last season but outgained them in both meetings. Historically, the Panthers haven’t been anything special as a home dog but the Saints have been impressive as a road favorite with a 15-9 ATS record their last 24 with a +/- of +9PPG. Lay the points with the double-revenge road chalk.

#287/288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 46.5 Points - Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Our words of advice for Week #2 in the NFL are to not overreact to Week #1’s results. Miami is coming off a really high scoring game against the Chargers with 70-total points. New England is coming off a 45-point total against the Eagles. Those results have driven the O/U number up for this AFC East rivalry which puts us squarely on the Under. Miami averaged a ridiculous 8.2-Yards Per Play last week against the Chargers after averaging 6.0 YPP last season. That was against a bad Chargers defense that ranked 21st in YPP D a year ago. New England just held a Philadelphia offense to 4.1 YPP after the Eagles averaged 5.8 YPP a season ago. Last season the Fish averaged 23.8 PPG (11th) and allowed 24.1 PPG. (24th). New England scored 21.4 PPG (16th) and gave up 20.4 PPG (11th). Miami scored 30+ points themselves six times last season but four of those games came against the Bears, Lions, Texans and Browns who all ranked 19th or worse in PPG allowed. In games involving the Patriots last season only 6 games (in regulation) finished with more than 46.5 total points. The Pats offense scored more than 26-points just three times. These two rivals have combined for more than this O/U number 1 time in the last six meetings and three times in the last ten. New England coach Belichick just watched L.A. pound out over 230 rushing yards and will take a conservative approach in this game with a run first mentality.

#281 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco 49ers -7 over Los Angeles Rams, Sunday 4 PM ET - This line opened -4.5 and was quickly bet through several key numbers including 7 but we don’t feel the move is enough and will back San Francisco. The Rams are coming off a win in Seattle, but they did so with a revamped O-line which the Seahawks couldn’t take advantage of and pressure Stafford. L.A. also were thin at WR without Kupp (on PUP) and yet had two receivers go over 100-yards each. Was the Rams winning an indicator of how good they could be this season, or was it a better indicator of Seattle and what they are this season? The 49ers went into Pittsburgh and destroyed a Steelers team that many experts projected as a surprise team in the AFC this season. The Niners defense held the Steelers to 41-rushing yards after that unit averaged 121 YPG rushing a year ago. San Francisco outgained Pittsburgh 5.9 YPP to just 3.9 YPP in their dominating 30-7 win. The 49ers beat the Rams twice last season and have won 8 of the last nine meetings. In the two games last season the Niners outgained the Rams 6.7 YPP to 3.5 YPP and 7.1 YPP to 4.0 YPP in both games. They won by 17 and 15 points respectively. San Francisco had the second-best average Margin of Victory last season at +8.7 PPG. The Rams had the 28th worst average MOV at minus -4.5 PPG. We won’t be scared off by the move. Lay it!

#481/482 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under the total – Buffalo vs NY Jets, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Jets defense was fantastic last season and they had the Bills number to say the least. Buffalo scored just 37 total points in 2 games vs NY (17 & 20 points) and they scored TD’s on only 4 of their 22 offensive possessions vs New York last season. That’s only an 18% TD rate and to put that into perspective, against everyone else not named the Jets, the Bills scored TD’s on 29% of their offensive possessions. Not surprising as NYJ let the NFL allowing TD’s on only 15% of opponents possessions, let the NFL in YPP allowed and finished 4th in total defense. We expect Buffalo to struggle offensively again in this game. On the other side, the Jets bring over Aaron Rodgers from GB but let’s face it, he had a terrible season in 2022. His worst QBR rating of his career ranking 26th in the NFL. Can he turn it around this season? Maybe but he’ll have to do so behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL which is far from ideal. He's also working with new skill players and played only a few snaps in the preseason so it may take some time to fine tune this offense. He’s facing a very solid Buffalo defense that ranked in the top 10 in total defense, YPP allowed, and they gave up only 19 PPG (4th in the league). Seven of the last eight meetings between these 2 AFC East rivals have ended to total points of less than 45 which is the current number. Six of those games have totaled 37 points or fewer. Another Under on Monday Night.

#480 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY GIANTS + over DALLAS, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - First off, we love looking at home underdogs vs a division opponent in week 1. That situation has been money in the bank with the host dogs covering 21 of the last 26 in that spot. On top of that, division dogs in general in week 1 are 41-21 ATS over the last decade. Dallas gets all the publicity in this one but let’s not forget the Giants made the playoffs last season and won a game @ 13-4 Minnesota in the Wild Card round. We really like NYG head coach Daboll and now they are in their 2nd year under him so we look for an improved team in 2023. We’re hearing QB Daniel Jones played outstanding in camp and has a great grasp of the offense in his 2nd season under OC Kafka and Daboll. Dallas was 8-1 at home last season but only 4-4 on the road. QB Dak Prescott didn’t play in the pre-season which we feel is a negative for the offense in game 1 and he led the NFL in interceptions last year despite missing 5 games. He also loses his offensive coordinator Moore who is now with the Chargers and HC Mike McCarthy will call plays which we think is a negative. The Giants defensive line is one of the best in the NFL and we look for an improved secondary with some additions through free agency and the draft. Dallas won both games last season but both were tight 1 score games and we really expect NYG to be drastically improved. This line tells us Dallas is 6 points better on a neutral and if this was in Dallas be laying almost 10 – No way – we’re not so sure NYG won’t be the better team this season. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* under 54 Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - The NFL debuts Thursday night with the Lions taking on the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium. The Lions surprised many fans and teams last year but won’t sneak up on anyone this year. Detroit made a huge jump offensively last season going from 19.1PPG in 2021 to 26.6PPG in 2022 so expect a regression this year against a tougher schedule. Gone from last year's roster are running backs Jamaal Williams (over 1,000-yds rushing) and D’Andre Swift who accounted for 23 combined rushing TD’s. The Lions gave up 25.1PPG but should be improved defensively with added personnel on the D-line and in the defensive backfield. Detroit was much better defensively in the second half of the season allowing just 20.2PPG in their last ten games. Of course, KC is one of the very best offenses in the NFL and has averaged over 29PPG the past two seasons. In their first twelve games last season they scored 27 or less points seven times. Defensively, the Chiefs were 9th in Yards Per Play defense in 2022 at 5.2 per and gave up 22.2PPG (18th). In watching the betting markets on this Total we see a key sharp Book offering a lower number than most of the public shops. That tells us the heavies are on the Under.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51 Points – Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday @ 6:30 ET - Our power ratings have this total set at 49 so, in our opinion, we’re getting a few points of value on the Under. Neither QB is 100% healthy with Mahomes high ankle sprain which should be better but will continue to limit his mobility and Hurts shoulder injury which has really prevented him from being accurate throwing downfield. Both defenses match up very well vs the opposing offenses strengths. The Eagles rank #1 in the NFL in overall pass defense and they had 15 more sacks than any other team in the NFL this season. The pressure will be a problem for Mahomes who won’t have his usual mobility due to his ankle injury. The Philadelphia defense has been stout all season ranking 2nd in total defense while allowing just 20 PPG. On the other side, the Eagles run the ball almost 51% of the time (4th most in the NFL) and KC’s strength on defense is stopping the run. The Chiefs rank 8th in the NFL allowing just 107 YPG rushing and their defense as a whole has improved dramatically over the 2nd half of the season. On October 31st the Chiefs overall defense ranked 26th allowing 370 YPG. They now rank 10th in the NFL giving up just 328 yards per game and have allowed an average of just 304 total yards per game and only 4.8 yards per play since November 1st. Last week they held a potent Cincinnati offense to 309 total yards on 4.8 yards per play. So while Philly’s defense has been a strength all year, KC’s has been one of the best in the NFL the 2nd half of the season. KC has played 19 games this season with just 6 of those topping 51 total points (in regulation). Philadelphia has also played 19 games this season and only 5 of those games have topped 51 total points. Thus, of the 38 combined games these 2 have played, only 11 have topped 51 total points. An interesting underlying situation in this Super Bowl is the officiating. Carl Cheffers team will be officiating this game and they have called more penalties than any other crew in the NFL each of the past 2 seasons. Cheffers has been the head referee for 12 playoff games since 2010 and 11 of those 12 games have stayed Under the Total by an average of 13 PPG. He reffed the Cincinnati vs Buffalo playoff game a few weeks ago which stayed Under the total by 11 points. Historically, there have been 55 Super Bowls and 13 of those have had totals set in the 50’s. 9 of those 13 games have stayed Under the Total. More recently, since 2000, there have been 8 Super Bowls with the total set at 50 points or higher and 7 of those games have stayed Under the Total. The last 4 Super Bowls have stayed Under the total and we’re projecting this one will do the same.

#323 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - This line opened low at KC -2 due to the injury to Mahomes. It has since moved to the Bengals as a favorite and now back to KC -1.5 with the anticipation that Mahomes will play. He will, but we can’t imagine he’ll be even close to 100% based on the history of high ankle sprains and time needed to heal. He needs to be at the top of his game for the Chiefs to have a chance here and with his mobility severely limited they just aren’t the same team. Cincinnati has already beaten the Chiefs 3 times in the last 13 months and that was with Mahomes at 100%. Cincy outgained KC by 130 yards combined in those 3 games and QB Burrow has ripped apart this defense in those games with a 72% completion percentage of almost 1,000 yards and 8 TD’s. In their lone meeting this season, the Bengals defense held Mahomes to 16 completions, his lowest of the season. Last week the Bengals dominated both lines of scrimmage vs a team many thought was the best in the NFL. Cincy rolled up 172 yards rushing while holding Buffalo to 63 yards on the ground. Now they face a KC defense that allowed Jacksonville to rush for a whopping 7.6 YPC last weekend. After their 98 yard TD drive right after Mahomes was injured, the Chiefs only gained 153 total yards from that point on with their QB hobbled. Jacksonville gained 260 yards from that point on but had a few key turnovers including a fumble at the KC 3 yard line. The fact it, once Mahomes was far less than 100%, the Jags outplayed the Chiefs and KC was fortunate to win. This week Kansas City plays a better opponent but will almost assuredly be in the same situation offensively with Mahomes hobbled. Cincy, on the other hand, was firing on all cylinders last week offensively and should be able to do the same this week vs a KC defense that is not as good as the Buffalo defense they shredded for 412 yards last weekend. Cincinnati is the 2nd best spread team in the NFL this year with a 13-4-1 ATS mark. KC is the 2nd worst spread team in the league this year with a 5-12-1 ATS record. With both teams at full strength we felt the Bengals had a solid shot at the upset and now with the situation we have, we feel it will be very difficult for Kansas City to win this game. Cincinnati heads back to the Super Bowl.

#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We weren’t overly impressed with San Fran last week in their 19-12 win over Dallas. We felt the Cowboys absolutely outplayed the host Niners for the first 3 quarters before running out of gas late in the game. That wasn’t surprising as Dallas was playing their 4th straight week on the road and the overall numbers for those teams aren’t good, especially late in the game. That game was tied 9-9 entering the 4th quarter and Dallas had outgained San Francisco 219 to 147 when the Niners when on their long (and only) TD drive. The point is, they were at home last week playing an opponent in a very bad situational spot and struggled. That same opponent, the Cowboys, finished 2 games behind Philly in the NFC East. QB Purdy finally came back to earth a bit last week (219 yards pass and 0 TD’s) has he finally faced a defense with a pulse. In 5 of his 7 starts leading up to last weekend vs Dallas, he had faced defenses ranked 18th or lower. His 2 career road starts were both tight wins @ Seattle (won by 8) and @ Las Vegas (won in OT). Now he takes a HUGE step up in competition traveling to the east coast for his first ever playoff start facing the 2nd best defense in the NFL the Eagles who are also 1st in the league vs the pass. Philly, similar to the Dallas defense last week, is great at pressuring the QB with a league high 70 sacks this season, 15 more than anyone else in the NFL. We expect Purdy to struggle. Philly is 15-3 on the season but 2 of those losses came when QB Hurts was out with an injury. Thus, with him in the lineup, the Eagles are 15-1 and they dominated the Giants last week 38-7 outgaining NY by nearly 200 yards. They are also rested and healthy after having a bye the previous week. At home this year the Eagles have a winning margin of +11 PPG and a yardage margin of +105 YPG. They were 7-2 ATS in home games with Hurts as their starting QB. San Francisco was just 4-4 ATS on the road this season and they played only 1 road game this season vs a team that ended the year with a winning record, Seattle, and they barely made the cut with a 9-8 regular season record. We have these teams rated very close overall, however we like the home field edge and QB advantage here with Hurts, an MVP candidate, vs Purdy making his first road playoff start and first road start vs a high level team. Getting Philly under a FG at home is value in our opinion.

#317/318 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 46.5 Points – Dallas vs San Francisco, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - We were on the Over 45.5 in the Tampa Bay vs Dallas game last week and the game landed on 45 for a very tough loss considering the circumstances. The game should have been much higher scoring with Dallas missing 4 XP’s along with Tampa throwing an interception in the endzone taking points off the board, and Tampa getting down to the Dallas 2 yard line (1st and goal from the 2) in the 2nd half and coming away with 0 points. Needless to say, that game should have gone Over the total. Now we are getting the total at nearly the same number but with a SF offense that has been much better all season when comparing them to the Tampa offense from last week. We like the value on the Over here. Dallas scored only 6 pts in their regular season finale vs Washington but prior to that they had averaged 36 PPG their previous 9 games and scored at least 27 in each of those games. Then last week they scored 31 on a very solid Tampa defense. The Cowboys and their opponents reached at least 48 total points in 7 of those 10 games and as we mentioned really should have been in the 50’s last week. The Dallas defense allowed 15 PPG over their first 7 games of the season and over the final 10 they allowed 24 PPG. They “held” Tampa to 14 points but as we stated the Bucs left a number of opportunities on the field. San Fran should have their way on offense on Sunday. Since Brock Purdy took over at QB back in early December, the Niners have averaged 35 PPG and been held under 30 points only ONCE in those 7 games. They have been held under 6.0 YPP only twice in those 7 games with Purdy under center. SF has gone Over the total in 6 of those 7 games and they’ve reached at least 50 total points in 5 of their last 7 games. The 49er defense has very good overall numbers, but they have allowed at least 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games with Arizona (with Blough & McSorley at QB) being the only team during that stretch that didn’t reach 20. SF has also played the 28th most difficult schedule of opposing offenses and they are now facing a Dallas offense that is playing as well as anyone in the NFL the 2nd half of the season. Both of these teams have the ability to reach the mid to upper 20’s or even push into the 30’s here with the total set in the mid 40’s it’s simply too low.

#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Jags on the road after 2 must win, come from behind home wins the last 2 weeks. To end the regular season Jacksonville played a “win and in” game for the AFC South crown vs Tennessee and trailed in the 4th quarter before coming back to win 20-16. On top of that, the Jaguars were outgained by nearly 100 yards in that game vs a Tennessee offense with 3rd string QB Josh Dobbs under center. Last week we all watched them get down 27-0 and make a furious 2nd half comeback to beat the Chargers 31-30. What do they have left in the physical and emotional tank after those 2 dramatic wins? This team probably shouldn’t even be here at this point and now they must play a road game versus a KC team who is coming off a bye and is completely comfortable in this situation (playoff pressure) while Jacksonville is not. We do have one data point to look closely at as these teams met here in KC back in mid November. The Chiefs were favored by 10 in that game and won 27-17. It was actually a much more dominant performance by KC in that game. They outgained Jacksonville by +2.6 yards per play with KC averaging a massive 7.8 YPP while holding the Jags to 5.2 YPP. On top of that, the Chiefs were -3 turnovers in that game and still able to win by double digits. We expect the Kansas City offense to have their way in this game as they did in the first meeting averaging nearly 8 yards per play as we discussed. Jacksonville’s defense ranks 24th in total defense and 28th in pass defense and that’s facing the EASIEST schedule of offenses this season. Now they face the #1 offense in the NFL with 2 weeks to prepare and a QB Mahomes that is playing at the top of his game. Since Mahomes took over as the starting QB for KC, he has a record of 7-2 in home playoff games with those 7 wins coming by an average of 13.6 PPG. The Jags defense faced 7 teams this season which ended the year ranked in the top 15 in total offense. In those games Jacksonville allowed an average of 28 PPG. KC head coach Andy Reid has a remarkable 29-6 record in games with an added week of rest advantage (63% cover rate in those games) and in his 19 playoff wins, 15 have come by double digits. We like Kansas City to win this game by at least 10 points.

#151/152 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 45.5 Points – Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Bucs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - These are 2 of the fastest paced teams in the NFL with TB rank 1st in seconds per play and Dallas 4th so we should be plenty of offensive snaps in this game. Dallas scored only 6 pts last week vs Washington but prior to that they had averaged 36 PPG their previous 9 games and scored at least 27 in each of those games. The Cowboys and their opponents reached at least 48 total points in 7 of those 9 games. Both of these defenses were regressing as the season wore on. TB’s defense has allowed at least 24 points in 4 of their last 5 and the only team that didn’t reach 24 was Arizona with 3rd string QB McSorely starting. Besides their season opener vs Dallas, TB faced 3 other top 10 offenses this season and they allowed 34, 35, and 41 points in their other 3 vs top 10. In their first game vs Dallas they held the Boys to 3 points, however Dak was injured in that game and it was the first game of the season back in early September so not much can be taken from that in our opinion. Speaking of regression, the Dallas defense allowed 15 PPG over their first 7 games of the season and over the final 10 they allowed 24 PPG. The Tampa offense was hit or miss at times this season, however they played well down the stretch. In Brady’s last 6 quarters as QB they scored 47 points, 30 vs Carolina and then 17 in first half last week before the sat the starters. Weather will be cool in the 40’s but light winds and no precipitation. The projected final score based on the total is around Dallas 24, Tampa 21 and we think both teams will eclipse those numbers. Over is the play on Monday Night.

#147/148 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48 Points – NY Giants vs Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 4:40 PM ET - These 2 met a few weeks ago and we were on the Over in that game as well. It cashed with Minnesota winning 27-24 and it took a big 4th quarter to get there. However, watch that game from start to finish, both teams had a number of chances well before that to put points on the board and did not. NY threw 2 interceptions in the endzone in that game and there were 4 punts from right around midfield which usually kill an over but they were still able to top 50 points despite that. Both teams moved the ball well on offense as they combined to average around 6.0 YPP. Minnesota has been an Over machine when playing at home this season. 7 of their 9 home games have gone Over the total. The Vikes average 27 PPG at home this season and that includes their one stinker on offense where they scored 3 points vs Dallas back in November. They put up at least 23 points in every other home game and their average total points scored at home this season was 52.3. The Giants only put up 16 points last week vs Philly (one of the top defenses in the NFL) however they sat pretty much everyone including starting QB Jones. Prior to that they had scored at least 20 points in 6 straight games and they are facing a Minnesota defense ranks 31st in total defense and the Giants averaged 7 YPP in their meeting a few weeks ago. The Giants defense also ranks nearly the bottom of the league at 25th in total defense. We have a feeling both teams will have to keep up offensively here as we don’t see either defense stopping their opponent. Take the Over.

#141/142 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 42 Points – Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - These 2 already met twice and both games totaled just 34 points. Seattle scored ONE offensive TD in 2 games vs SF this year – the other TD was a block FG returned for a TD. Seattle averaged just 4.8 YPP in the 2 meetings and had less than 500 yards total in the 2 games combined. SF QB Purdy has been successful but the pressure really ramps up now making his first NFL playoff start. The Niners already run the ball 7th most in the NFL (rushing play %) and will lean on that heavily after rushing for 189 and 170 yards in their 2 meetings vs Seattle. If SF gets a lead as we suspect, the rushing attack will eat clock. The Seattle defense has played better down the stretch holding 3 of last 4 opponents to 21 points or less – KC was only one who topped that with just 24 point. We also think the Seahawks defense has a hidden advantage here as well facing QB Purdy for the 2nd time in a month. They will be the only defense that will have seen Purdy more than once. Lastly the weather in San Francisco doesn’t look great on Saturday with rain and winds of 20+ MPG which will benefit the defenses in this game. These two division rivals know each other very well and that leads to a low scoring game on Saturday.

ASA Top Play on 10* UNDER 49.5 Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers, 8:15 PM ET - It’s been a while since these two division rivals played a meaningful game this late in the season. Basically, both teams need to win to get in. The Lions could potentially be eliminated if Seattle wins earlier in the day, but the Lions have stated this will be an important game for them either way. These two teams are nearly mirror images when it comes to basic offensive and defensive statistics. They both will want to establish the running game as the Lions rank 11th in the league in RYPG at 129.7, the Packers are 13th at 125.6RYPG. Both defenses really struggle to stop the run with the Lions giving up 149YPG (29th worst), while the Packers are not much better at 26th allowing 141YPG. Both defenses allow over 5.0 yards per carry which is significantly more than the league average of 4.5-yards per rush. The Lions have put up some big scores in 3 of their last four games but the Bears, Panthers and Vikings rank 32nd, 22nd and 31st in points allowed per game. Green Bay gives up on average 21.9PPG. The Packers put up 41-points last week against the Vikings but 14-points came via a 100-yards kickoff return and a 75-yards interception. During their 4-game winning streak the Packers have not put up huge offensive numbers averaging 328YPG which is well below league average. Green Bay is the slowest paced team in the NFL as they run 1 play per every 30.12 seconds. Detroit is fast paced but with both teams focused on running the football the possessions will be down for both.

#477 ASA PLAY ON 10* New England Patriots +7.5 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We are writing this up on Friday and the line is +7 at most places. We would suggest you play this one now as we wouldn’t be surprised if this line dips below a TD on Sunday depending on what happens on Saturday. With the cancellation of the Buffalo – Cincinnati game, if KC wins here they have the #1 seed. In that case, the Bills may actually rest some players to get ready for the playoffs which would send this line down. New England needs to win to make the playoffs. Win and they’re in. Preparation wise, the Patriots have a big advantage here. They’ve been getting ready for this game with one of the best prep coaches of all time, Bill Belichick, while Buffalo’s week has been thrown into chaos after the Damar Hamlin incident on Monday night. The Bills have been doing walk throughs only this week and some of their players stayed in Cincinnati this week to be with Hamlin which is completely understandable. The Bills are already in the playoffs obviously and we can’t imagine what their mind set might be for this game. The road team in this AFC East rivalry has been money with a 20-7-2 ATS record the last 29 meetings. We’re not enamored with the way the Pats are playing right now, but getting a TD in this situation with one of the better defenses in the NFL (allowing 5 YPP – 4th in the NFL) is the way we’ll go.

#466 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - While the Chiefs are winning, they are vastly underperforming when it comes to the point spread. They are 4-11-1 ATS on the season and over their last 9 games KC is 1-7-1 ATS. They are tied with Tampa for the worst ATS record in the NFL this season. If we throw out their week one domination of what we have found out is a bad Arizona team, KC has a PPG margin of just +5.7 over their last 15 games. Over their last 10 games when they were fighting for the AFC West crown and pushing for the #1 seed, they haven’t been all that impressive even vs lower tier teams. During that stretch they won @ Houston in OT, beat Denver by 6 & 3 points, and beat a floundering Tennessee team by 3 in OT. The Raiders are still playing hard and playing fairly well winning 4 of their last 7 games. Their losses during that stretch have come by 1, 3, and 3 points. They’ve only lost 1 game this season by double digits and nearly knocked off KC on the road this season losing 30-29 and outgained the Chiefs by 10 yards. Las Vegas was +7.5 in that game @ KC and now we’re getting a higher number with them at home because KC is in a perceived “must win” spot which we talk about below. Last week QB Stidham played outstanding and the Raiders offense outgained the red hot 49ers while averaging 7.6 YPP on the best defense in the league despite their 3 point loss in OT. Chiefs need to win to keep pushing for the potential #1 seed, however they’ve been in that spot for awhile now and struggled with teams far worse than Las Vegas as we mentioned. The Raiders would like nothing better than to knock off the big boy in the AFC West to end their season. We expect a great effort from LV in what should be a very tight game. Take the points.

#122 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Giants -5.5 vs Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Hindsight is 20/20 of course but one team we looked long and hard at playing against last week was the Colts. They have a lame duck head coach in Jeff Saturday, they have a revolving door at quarterback and were so desperate they played Nick Foles last week against the Chargers. Foles was 17/29 for 143 yards and 3 INT’s. There is a very good chance this team has tanked it for the season in an effort to nab a QB early in the draft next season. The Colts have lost 5 straight games and have THE worst road differential in the NFL at minus -10.8PPG. The Giants on the other hand are fighting for their playoff lives and need to win this home game. New York has faced a tough gauntlet of games in recent weeks and steps way down in talent here. The Colts weakness defensively is their rush D which allows 122.2 rushing yards per game which is 20th in the NFL. The Giants average 144.9 rushing yards per game which is 6th best. This Colts offense ranks near the bottom of the league in nearly every key statistical category including total yards per game gained and scoring as they average just 16.5PPG. New York will bounce back here off that disappointing loss to the Vikings in which they outgained the Vikings by +92 yards but ended up losing late. Indianapolis lays down here in an ugly loss.

#116 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -6 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Lions are fighting for a playoff spot and we expect them to play well at home on Sunday. They are coming off an embarrassing effort last week getting trounced @ Carolina in their 2nd consecutive road game after winning @ NYJ a week earlier. This Detroit offense has been fantastic at home averaging 32 PPG and should have their way vs a Chicago defense that has allowed an average of 33 PPG over their last 8. The Lions have averaged 3.15 points per possession at home which is the best rate in the NFL. The Bears offense hit their stride from late October to late November but they’ve hit a wall over the last month. They have not topped 20 points in any of their last 4 games and they are averaging just 15 PPG during that stretch. They’re going to have to do a lot better than that here to stay in this game. Chicago has been outscored by 84 points since week 8 which is the worst point differential in the NFL over that time span. Chicago has nothing to play for and they’ve lost 8 straight so it looks like they’ve thrown in the towel. Especially over the last 4 weeks when their offense has gone in the tank. Detroit defense prior to last week’s loss @ Carolina had really started to play well holding 5 straight opponents below their scoring average. We like the Lions to win this one by at least a TD. We don’t think Chicago will be able to keep up.

#481 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Chargers -4 over Indianapolis Colts, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Indianapolis has to be mentally shot coming into this game. After blowing their 33 point lead last week @ Minnesota (Led 33-0 at half and LOST) they are officially out of the playoff race. They also lost RB Taylor for the season in that game and will not now be starting Nick Foles at QB, their 3rd different starter this season. He has not taken a snap in a game this season. Not much to play for here and we wouldn’t expect a high level effort here from a team that has massively underachieved this season. Since beating Las Vegas in interim head coach Jeff Saturday’s debut, the Colts have lost 4 straight getting outgained in each game. Their defense has allowed 117 points in the last 3 games (39 PPG) and the Indy offense had been held under 20 points in 6 of their last 8 games. Even their offensive “breakout” last week vs the worst defense in the NFL (Minnesota) was aided by 2 non offensive TD’s so the offense really only scored 17 points. The Colts have scored a touchdown on 12.7% of their drives, tied with the Broncos for the lowest rate in the league. The Chargers are starting to play well winning 3 of their last 4 games. They are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot and a win here, plus a few other things that need to happen, could take care of that. The last 2 weeks LA has topped Miami & Tennessee outgaining those 2 by a combined 400 yards. The Chargers are getting healthy on both sides of the ball and we have a HUGE edge at QB here with Herbert vs Foles. Lay it.

#477 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver Broncos -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Denver has started playing much better in recent weeks covering 3 straight. Their offense has scored 52 points the last 2 weeks combined which is more than they put up the previous 4 weeks combined. In their last 3 games they led the entire way @ Baltimore before a Raven’s FG with under 1 minute remaining gave them a 1 point win, they lost by 6 at home vs KC and had the ball in Chiefs territory late with a chance to win, and then last week they beat Arizona 24-15. Since week 10, this Denver offense has scored TD’s on 80% of their red zone drives which is 1st in the NFL. Their defense remains very good ranking 4th in both total defense and YPP allowed. While the Bronco’s offense is starting to peak, LA’s offense continues to stink. They rank dead last in the NFL in total offense, YPP, and 31st in scoring at 16 PPG. Last week vs Green Bay the Rams tallied 156 TOTAL yards on 3.6 YPP and put up 12 points. QB Baker Mayfield was terrible completing just 12 total pass for barely 100 yards. A week earlier LA had 3 points vs a bad Raider defense with less than 4:00 minutes remaining in the game before scoring 2 late TD’s for 17 total points. Now they face one of the top defenses in the NFL and we just don’t see much offense for LA. Mayfield has been bad all year completing under 60% of his passes and ranking right at the bottom of the league in QBR. LA has very little to NO home field advantage and with this game being on Christmas Day we suspect that it will be even less. Russell Wilson is back under center and while he’s had a disappointing season, his 2 highest QBR ratings were his last 2 games so he’s trending up along with the Denver offense. We like Denver to win this game by more than a FG.

#469/470 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 37.5 Points – Washington Commanders vs San Francisco 49ers, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Defenses should control this one with 2 of the top stop units in the NFL facing off. San Francisco ranks #1 in total defense while Washington ranks 3rd in that category. They are both in the top 10 in YPP allowed and PPG allowed. These 2 defenses have been even more proficient as of late with SF ranking 1st in the NFL since week 11 allowing opponents just 0.87 points per drive and Washington ranking 2nd in that stat allowing only 1.27 points per drive. The Commanders have not allowed more than 21 points in any of their last 10 games and SF has held 7 straight opponents to 17 points or fewer. Offensively Washington struggles to say the least. The rank 26th in YPP gained and 25th in scoring at 18.9 PPG. That’s despite playing the 30th toughest defensive schedule this season. In 5 of their last 6 games the Commanders have faced defenses ranked 26th, 27th (twice), 31st, and 32nd and in those 5 games they’ve averaged 18 PPG. Now they face the best defense in the NFL and we expect very little offensive. SF clinched the NFC West with their win last week but only scored 21 points vs a Seattle defense that ranks 29th overall. Washington now has 3 weeks of film on rookie QB Purdy who had only 217 yards passing last week. Niner head coach Shanahan also hinted at possibly giving some of his offensive skill players a rest at some point to make sure they are ready for the playoffs. We know Deebo Samuel is out for this one. Lastly we have 2 slow paced teams in this game with Washington 25th in adjusted tempo and San Fran 31st. We’re on the Under in this game.

#458 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Panthers +2.5 over Detroit Lions, Saturday at 1 PM ET - Detroit is a bit overvalued right now after winning 6 of the last 7 and covering 7 straight. Now they are favored on the road vs a team that, like them, is still battling for a playoff spot. In fact, if Carolina wins out, they are in the playoffs so still a ton to play for. Detroit hasn’t been a road favorite yet this season and in their last 20 road games they’ve been favored once and lost that game outright. Last week they won by 3 vs the Jets but that took a late 51 yard TD. Historically this Detroit team has been horrendous as a road favorite with a spread record of 22-40 ATS in that role since 1980. Since firing HC Matt Rhule, Carolina has actually played quite well. Prior to last week’s loss they had won 3 of their previous 4 games. The Panthers are coming off a loss as a home favorite vs Pittsburgh while Detroit is coming off a road dog upset win over NY Jets which sets this up very nicely for the home team. Carolina is a bit undervalued right now getting points at home despite covering 6 of their last 8 games. This line looks to easy to take the Lions as we expect many will. We’ll take the home dog as teams getting points at home are 49-37 ATS on the year with underdogs in general covering almost 55% of the time in 2022. Tough spot for Detroit in their 2nd straight on the road after an upset win last week.

ASA top play on 10* LA Rams +7 vs Green Bay Packers, 8:20 PM ET - These two teams had much higher aspirations this season and both have clearly fallen short. There isn’t a big difference between these two teams so we have to side with the Dog and the points here. The Rams are higher rated than the Packers when it comes to defensive DVOA rankings #14 whereas the Packers are 23rd. Green Bay holds the advantage offensively ranking 11th in DVOA while the Rams are 26th. The Rams have a negative differential of minus -6PPG which is one of the worst numbers in the NBA but the Packers aren’t much better at minus -3PPG which is 25th in the league. Green Bay has historically dominated in Lambeau but this season they have a negative differential of minus -0.8PPG. The Packers have already lost to the Titans and Jets at home and narrowly beat the Patriots. The Rams have two bad road losses on their resume to the 49ers and Chiefs and the Packers aren’t on that level. The other road games for the Rams are a 7-point loss at New Orleans, lost by 3 at Tampa and beat the Cardinals. Baker Mayfield had a week to learn more of the Rams system and should be better prepared for this road contest. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 45 Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:25 PM ET - The Cris opener on this game was 41.5 which was quickly bet up to the current number of 45. We will grab the added value and play Under here. NFL games this season have averaged 44 total points per game and we can’t see this game being ‘average’. The Bucs offense has been dreadful to say the least this season averaging just 5.4 Yards Per Play and 17.2PPG (28th). On average it takes the Bucks 19.7 yards gained to score 1-points and that’s barely better than the Colts and Broncos. It won’t get any easier today against a Bengals defense allowing just 5.5 Yards Per Play, 16.2 Yards Per Point (11th) and 5.4 Yards Per Play. Cincinnati is slightly over-rated offensively as a result of playing some soft defenses. In 8 of their last ten games, they have faced defenses ranked 15th or worse in the league in overall defensive DVOA. The one comparable defense to Tampa’s the Bengals has faced this season is the Ravens and they managed just 17 points in that game. The Bucs own the 11th best DVOA defense, give up just 320YPG, are 6th versus the pass and 9th in points allowed per game. Tampa will want to play fast, but the Bengals prefer to play slow. The Bengals are 13-4-1 Under in their last 18 games overall. Tampa Bay is on an 11-2 Under streak when coming off a loss.

#310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Bills -7 vs Miami Dolphins, Saturday 8:15pm ET - At first look this may seem to be a lot of points to lay in a divisional showdown, but in reality, it’s not. Consider the Bills were minus -4-points in Miami earlier this season which should have them as double-digit favorite in this game. Buffalo lost the first encounter this season despite outplaying the Phins by a wide margin. Buffalo had 497 total yards in the game to Miami’s 212 yards. The Bills had twice as many first downs (31-15), nearly 3 times the rushing yards (115-41) and 382 passing yards to the Dolphins 171, yet still lost. The Bills blew numerous red zone chances and essentially handed Miami the win. Things will be different this time around as the Bills are at home, in a cold, windy and wet environment. This Miami team that has played four straight games in warm weather are also playing their 3rd road game in as many weeks. After putting up some gaudy offensive numbers against four weak defenses in a row, the Phins were brought back to Earth against the 49ers and Chargers the past two weeks. Today they get a Bills defense that is nearly as good as the 49ers in terms of efficiency. The Bills offense is 2nd in yards per game gained, 6th in passing, 8th in rushing and score the 4th most points in the NFL. Miami is 20th in YPG allowed, 23rd vs. the pass and give up 24PPG which ranks them 23rd. Buffalo has covered 7 of the last ten meetings at home and have the best home point differential in the NFL at +16.8PPG on their home field. In this payback setting we like the Bills big.

#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Seahawks +3 over San Francisco 49ers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Rookie QB Purdy has been very successful in his first 2 appearances in the NFL coming in relief 2 weeks ago to beat a faltering Miami team and then topping TB last week. Both of those games were at home. Now, if he plays, he’ll be making his first road start which is a whole different scenario. Not only that, he is not 100% with an oblique injury and there is a chance he won’t be able to go on a short week. If he can’t, it’s journeyman Josh Johnson who was just added to the roster last week. San Fran has had a very favorable schedule as of late with a grand total of ONE road game since November 1st before traveling to Seattle for this one. The Seahawks are in must win mode if they want to stay in the playoff hunt. They’ve dropped 3 of their last 4 and they’ve been competitive with 5 of their 6 losses coming by one possession. Seattle has been a house of horrors for the Niners with the Seahawks winning 12 of the last 14 both SU & ATS at home. We’re getting QB Geno Smith who is still 5th in the NFL in QBR vs either a rookie or a 4th stringer. The Niners are becoming a bit overvalued after winning 6 straight games now laying over a FG on the road with a rookie QB making his first road start, if he can even go. We’ll take the points.

#123/124 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 37.5 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - TB can’t score (18 PPG rank 27th) and now they are playing the best defense they’ve seen, the #1 defense in the NFL. TB games have reached 40 total points (in regulation) just once in their last 8 games and on the road this season the offense has been terrible. Away from home the Bucs have scored 5 TD’s in 58 possessions (8%) worst in the NFL. Brady struggles when pressured and will get plenty of it here vs a SF defense that ranks in the top 5 in sack% and sacks per game. With no running game, Tampa dead last in rushing at 73 YPG, this offense is in trouble on Sunday. Brock Purdy will get his first career start at QB for SF. He played decently in relief of an injured Garoppolo last week, but now TB has film on him. He may also be without (or not 100%) two of his top offensive weapons as both McCaffrey and Samuel are banged up and questionable. The Niners offense has played only 2 top 12 defenses this season, Denver & New Orleans, and scored 10 points & 13 in those games WITH Garoppolo at QB. Both defenses are the strengths of their teams in this one. Both rank in top 6 in YPP allowed and in the top 5 in points allowed (1st and 5th). SF allows points on just 25% of their opponents possessions (1st in NFL) and TB allows points on 29% of opponents possessions (2nd best in NFL). These two teams have combined to play 24 games this year and 17 have gone Under the total. TB games average 36 PPG & SF games average 39 PPG and that was with Garoppolo at QB. Rain & wind in the forecast for SF on Sunday afternoon and we expect a low scoring game here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 44 Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos, 4:25 PM ET - The Denver Broncos have been an Under machine this season with 11 of their twelve games staying below the posted Total. That includes three games that went into overtime. In fact, if you eliminate the points scored in OT, those 11 Unders have all finished with 33 or less points. Kansas City is one of the best offensive teams in the NFL, yet they have stayed Under the number in 4 of their last five games. Three of those five games finished with less than 44 points. Two weeks ago, the Chiefs faced a Rams team that is similar to this Broncos team and the O/U in that game was 41.5. The Broncos have a much better defense than the Rams do, and the offenses are both pathetic. Despite being on the field a lot, the Broncos are 3rd in defensive yards per game allowed 3rd versus the pass, 19th against the run and allow the 2nd fewest points per game in the league. Offensively the Broncos are 27th in YPG, 21st in passing O, 24th in rushing and last in the league in PPG scored at 13.8. We expect the Chiefs to get in front early on and take a passive approach in the second half. Denver is averaging just 5.3PPG in the second half of games and doesn't pose a threat to come from behind. The Under is 5-2-1 the last eight meetings. Bet Under.

#101/102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 43.5 Points – Las Vegas Raiders vs LA Rams, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Rams defense is rated 17th in YPP allowed and 14th in total defense. However they haven’t been very good over the last month or so. Over their last 4 games they’ve allowed 26, 27, 27, and 27 points. They are facing a Raider offense that ranks 5th in YPP and they rank 3rd in the NFL scoring points on 45% of their offensive possessions this season behind only KC & Buffalo. And over the last month, the Las Vegas offense has really taken a nice step up averaging 6.5 YPP over their last 4 games which is 2nd in the NFL during that stretch behind only KC. The Raiders will have success offensively in this game. We don’t trust them to cover the 6 points as most of their games are close and their defense is not good. That’s why we’re on the Over here. Last week the Rams were able to muster up some offense and score 23 points vs Seattle. That means in 2 of their last 3 games they’ve gotten to at least 20 points. LA starter at QB will be either Wolford or Perkins and both have started a finished a game this season. There is also a chance newly acquired Baker Mayfield might be available. They should be able to have some success vs a Vegas defense that has allowed at least 20 points in every game this year but one and ranks 31st defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders. Vegas games have averaged 48 total points this season and Rams home games have averaged 44 total points as we get perfect conditions for scoring at SoFi Stadium. Over is the play on Thursday Night

#477 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Saints +3.5 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - NFL teams off shutout losses have long been a very strong play the following week. Since 2015 teams that get shutout one week have a spread record of 26-12-3 ATS the following week. As an underdog off a shutout loss, those teams are 71-55-2 ATS the last 128 games that fall into that situation. New Orleans lost @ San Francisco 13-0 last week and we like them to cover here. Despite the 13-0 final, the Saints played a very good San Fran team pretty even. They each averaged 4.9 YPP but the Niners rank 14 more offensive snaps due to 2 New Orleans turnovers. On top of that, the Saints missed a FG, fumbled at the SF 6-yard line and were shut out on downs at the SF 4-yard line so they definitely had their chances. New Orleans is much better than their 4-8 record with a YPP differential of +0.5 which ranks 8th the league. Tampa is 14th in that category at +0.09. The Bucs are off an loss in OT vs a below average Cleveland team and since starting the season 2-0, in their last 9 games Tampa is 3-6 SU and 1-7-1 ATS. Their 3 wins during that stretch have come by 3, 5, and 6 points vs teams that have a combined record of 14-19. They have failed to cover the spread by a combined 76 points or 8.4 PPG as they continue to be overvalued. In the first game this season, TB won 20-10 but they were outgained 4.7 YPP to 4.0 YPP and gifted 5 turnovers by the Saints including a 68 yard pick 6. Prior to that New Orleans had won 7 of the previous 8 match ups. Tampa is 0-4 ATS as a favorite of 3 or less this year and we like the Saints to get this cover on Monday night.

#451 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +3 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Line value with Jets here in our opinion. This number basically says these 2 are even on a neutral field which we disagree with. Minnesota has the better record at 9-2 but they remain vastly overrated. They have a negative YPP differential and their point differential is just +5 on the season despite their 9 wins. There are 12 teams in the NFL that have better point differential than Minnesota and 29 teams that have a better YPP differential. That’s right, the Vikings rank 30th in YPP differential at -0.84 and the Jets rank 9th at +0.35 and NY has played the more difficult schedule. In their last 2 games, Minnesota was rolled at home by Dallas 40-3 and then “bounced back” to beat New England 33-26 but the Vikes were outgained by a whopping 2.0 YPP in that win. They allowed 26 points and 7.4 YPP to a Patriots offense that had 10 points on just 4.7 YPP on Thursday vs Buffalo. HUGE edge defensive here for the Jets as they allowed 5.1 YPP (5th) while Minnesota gives up 6.3 YPP (31st). New NY QB White is an upgrade over a struggling Wilson and while we don’t expect the huge numbers he had last week vs Chicago, he’ll do enough vs a Minnesota defense allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt (31st) to get the Jets a win here. We’ll take the points with the Jets on Sunday

#453/454 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 39.5 Points – Denver Broncos vs Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Denver hasn’t reached 17 points in 9 of their 11 games and they’ve gone Under the total in 10 of their 11 games this season. Their games have stayed Under the total by 111 total points this season! They rank last in scoring offense and 4th in scoring defense and Denver games are averaging just 32 total points this season. Only 22.7% of their offensive possessions have either reached the red zone or scored prior which is lowest in the league. The Broncos have also punted on almost 51% of their possessions which is the highest rate in the NFL. The Baltimore defense has been solid allowing just 20.8 PPG and they rank 9th defensive DVOA (per Football Outsiders) so we don’t see Denver’s offense having much success. Some on the other side. The Ravens offense is not overly explosive through the air with just 24 completions of 20 or more yards which is 3rd worst in the NFL. They are facing a Denver defense that has allowed more than 23 points only once all season and Baltimore loves to run the ball (6th highest run percentage in the league) which eats clock. Last week Baltimore was in a high scoring 28-27 loss @ Jacksonville (24th in total defense) but that game was 12-10 in the 4th quarter before the offenses went crazy. Denver games has reached 40 points ONCE this season and these teams have combined to go 17-5 to the UNDER this season. Another low scoring game here.

#301/302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 43.5 Points – Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - This is the lowest total set on a Buffalo game this season and they only other one that was close was when they faced Pittsburgh in early October and the total was 44.5. The average total set in Buffalo games this season is 49.8 and this one has gotten too low in our opinion. The Bills are 2nd in the NFL averaging 28 PPG and since throwing up a dud vs the Jets a month ago (Bills score 17), Buffalo has put up 89 points over their last 3 games. New England’s defense had a very solid 3 game stretch leading into last week’s game vs Minnesota where they allowed the Vikings to pile up 33 points. However, those 3 games were vs poor offenses with the NY Jets (twice) and Indianapolis. The Bills we be the best offense the Patriots have faced this season and in their 3 meetings last year (one in the playoffs), Buffalo averaged 30 PPG. Defensively Buffalo was great early in the season giving up just 12 PPG over their first 5 contests. However, they’ve been trending down allowing 23 PPG over their last 6 games including 78 points over their last 3 (26 PPG). They will be without their top pass rusher Von Miller in this game. New England has scored at least 22 points in 7 of their last 9 games. As we mentioned, these 2 teams met 3 times last season and the average points scored in those games was 47.5 and that includes a 14-10 game late in the season with terrible wet and windy weather. It’s going to be cold in Boston on Thursday night but no precipitation. With Buffalo favored by 4 here, the projected final score is around 24-20 and we expect both teams to top those totals. Over is the play.

#273/274 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 46.5 Points – Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - Unders have been cash money in the NFL this year hitting at 57% with an average total points scored sitting at 43.8 points. This one is nearly 3 full points above that number and we just don’t see it. Green Bay has struggled offensively all season long. They rank 26th in points scored per game at 18.4 and their games are averaging 40 total points per game. The Pack have scored on just 29% of their offensive possessions this season which is the 2nd worst mark in the NFL behind only Denver. They are facing a Philly defense that has given up 17 points or fewer in 7 of their 10 games this season. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles offense has been trending downward. They have scored just 38 total points in their last 2 games while averaging just 289 YPG (vs Washington & Indy). Both teams will be looking to run often here as the defensive weakness of each team is stopping the run. Philly runs the ball 51% of the time (5th most in the NFL) and GB is not very good at stopping the run. The Packers have leaned on the running game more as of late rolling up over 200 yards rushing in 2 of their last 4 games. Running the ball will eat clock and shorten this game. Green Bay is one of the slowest paced teams in the NFL (29th) and the Eagles are middle of the pack in that category. The extended forecast calls for rain in Philly on Sunday and we like this one to land Under the total.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Falcons +4 vs. Washington Commanders, 1 PM ET - It’s interesting to note that despite Washington having a winning record and the Falcons a losing one, their +/- point differential is nearly the same. In fact, Atlanta ranks higher than Washington in overall DVOA rankings. Three of the Falcons 6 losses this season have come by 4 or less points, four of six have come by 6-points or less. Washington is coming off a 13-point win over Houston after a huge upset in Philadelphia the week before. On the season the Commanders have six wins but 4 of those have come by 6-points or less. In terms of yards per play, the Falcons average 5.6YPP offensively and give up 6.0YPP. Washington averages just 5.5YPP on offense and gives up 5.1YPP. The Falcons ball control offense that features a rushing attack averaging 159.3RYPG should be able to keep this game close throughout. Washington is 6-4-1 ATS their last eleven when coming off a win but their average Margin of Victory in those games is -2.4PPG. Atlanta is 9-6 ATS their last 15 when coming off a loss with a negative differential of -1.1PPG. This one shapes up to be a field goal game for either team so we’ll grab the points.

#109/110 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Vikings -2.5 over New England Patriots, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Patriots 6-3 SU their last nine games but only 2 of those wins have come against a team with a winning record and that’s the Jets. The other 4 wins in that stretch come against teams with a combined 14-26 SU record. That ties into the fact the Pats have played the 21st easiest schedule according to our rankings. In contrast, the Vikings are 8-2 SU on the year, yet have faced the 9th toughest schedule to date. We can bang on the Vikings all we want but the fact of the matter is they’ve found ways to win. 3 of their last four wins have been quality W’s with victories over 7-3 Dolphins, 7-3 Bills and the 6-5 Redskins. New England is 4th in the league in YPG allowed and 6th in yards per play allowed at 4.9. But again, how much of that is a byproduct of playing the Steelers, Jets twice, Colts who rank 26th or worse in yards per play gained. Minnesota doesn’t have impressive overall statistics with an offense that averages 5.3 yards per play and 338YPG but they’ve also faced some of the leagues better defenses. Home/road numbers support the Vikings. Minnesota has a net +0.3 yards per play differential at home, the Pats are negative at minus -0.4. Minnesota had won 3 straight at home prior to an embarrassing home loss to the Cowboys last week so expect a rebound here.

#471 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas Cowboys PK -120 over Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The oddsmakers and market are telling us something here. Dallas is favored @ Minnesota despite losing @ Green Bay last week, while the Vikings were upsetting Buffalo on the road. The Vikings have just 1 loss on the season and are undefeated at home yet Dallas is favored and the line has moved very little. We like the Cowboys to win this one. They will be motivated after losing in OT last week and this is a huge game for them as they sit in 3rd place in the NFC East behind Philly and NY Giants. Meanwhile Minnesota has a huge lead in the NFC North with Green Bay and their 7 losses sitting in 2nd place. The Vikings simply aren’t as good as their record might indicate. They’ve been fortunate going 7-0 SU in one score games and they are #2 in the NFL in turnover margin. In they key YPP margin metric they rank 23rd and Minny is getting outgained both on a YPP and YPG basis despite their 8-1 record. They are undefeated at home but those wins have come vs Arizona, Chicago, Green Bay, and Detroit who have a combined 14-26 record. Dallas should be fresh as they had a bye leading into their GB game and despite their loss last Sunday, they’ve covered 13 of the last 18 times they’ve been tabbed a favorite. The Boys have a big edge defensively (allowing 0.8 YPP less than Minnesota) and should be edgy on that side of the ball after a poor performance last weekend. We like Dallas to get the win and cover on Sunday.

#359 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +3.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We were on the Pats a few weeks ago when they traveled to NY to face the Jets. New England was -3 in that game and won 22-17 but we were a bit fortunate as they Jets outplayed them. NY has 100 more yards and averaged nearly 3.0 YPP more per snap than the Patriots. The Jets made some key mistakes with 3 TO’s, a missed FG, and they were shut out on downs inside the Patriot 30 yard line. After being favored by a FG on the road, this line is very telling with New England now only 3.5 at home just a few weeks later. The Jets are better offensively (5.3 YPP to 5.2 YPP), better defensively (4.8 YPP allowed to 5.2 YPP allowed) and they’ve played the tougher schedule thus far per Football Outsiders (2nd highest SOS to 17th for New England). New York steps into this game with some serious momentum winning 5 of their last 6 games including a win over Buffalo in their most recent game prior to their bye last week. Their defense has been fantastic holding their last 6 opponents to an average of 15 PPG with 5 of those teams scoring under their season average. The Patriots offense ranks 26th in the NFL and in their meeting a few weeks ago NY held them to just 288 despite the loss. New England is also off a bye and Belichick was once great off a bye with Brady at QB. However, in his 2 years without Brady as his QB, the Pats lost both of their games off their bye week vs lower tier QB’s Drew Lock and Carson Wentz. NY is a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road this year and they get their revenge here after drastically outplaying New England a few weeks ago. Take +3.5.

#311/312 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 41 Points – Tennessee Titans vs Green Bay Packers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Not idea weather conditions in GB on Thursday night with cold temps in low 20’s with a wind chill in the teens and 15 MPH winds. The Tennessee offense continues to struggle ranking dead last in offensive YPG. The only team they’ve outgained this year in Houston who ranks 29th in total offense. The Titans haven’t gotten to 20 points in any of their last 4 games and they are averaging a league low 24 yards per drive. They run the ball as much as anyone with 54% of their plays coming on the ground and that won’t change here vs a Packer defense whose weakness is vs the run. GB’s offense looked much better last week vs Dallas putting up 28 in regulation with almost 25% of their total yards coming on 2 big TD passes from Rodgers to rookie WR Watson. We’re still not sold on this GB offense that was averaging just 12.5 PPG offensively (minus defensive points) the previous 4 games including just 9 points vs a terrible Detroit defense. The Titan defense has held 6 straight opponents to 17 points or fewer in regulation including a KC offense that ranks 1st in the NFL in scoring. These are 2 very slow paced teams as well ranking 29th (GB) and 32nd (Tenn) in tempo so we don’t expect many offensive plays in this one. On top of that, both teams will lean on their running game which eats clock. We think there is a solid chance neither team gets over 20 points here so we like the UNDER.

#265/266 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5 Points – Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Philly defense is one of the best in the NFL allowing just 4.7 YPP (2nd) and they are facing a Washington offense that averages just 4.9 YPP (28th). The Commanders are averaging just 17 PPG on the season and they have topped that number just ONCE in their last 7 games. Over that 7 game stretch Washington is averaging just 14.8 PPG and one of those games was vs Philadelphia who held them to 8 points. The only TD Washington scored in that first meeting with the Eagles – a 24-8 loss – was with under 2 minutes remaining in the game. While the Commanders offense has been poor, their defense has been quite respectable. They have not allowed more than 21 points in any of their last 5 games with 4 of those going Under the total. The key to slowing down the Eagles offense is to limit their potent rushing attack and Washington is very solid vs the run. In the first meeting this year, the Commanders held Philadelphia to 72 yards rushing which makes them the only defense this season to hold the Eagles under 100 yards on the ground. They also held them to 24 points which is the 2nd lowest total for Philly this year. The Eagles have a tendency to get a lead in the first half and then eat clock in the 2nd half, shortening the game. To that point, Philly leads the NFL averaging 21 PPG in the first and but only put up 8 PPG in the 2nd. We anticipate this type of game tonight with the Eagles laying 11 points, we like them to get out to a lead and then eat clock in the 2nd half. Since the start of the 2020 season, these 2 have met 5 times and scored an average of 38 points in those games with none topping 44. We like the Under tonight.

#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43 Points – Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Green Bay’s offense is struggling mightily and now they face off against the best defense in the NFL per Football Outsiders DVOA. The Packers are averaging just 12.5 PPG over their last 4 games (minus defensive points) and they have not topped 17 points offensively during that stretch. Aaron Rodgers has no weapons on the outside and they continue to be banged up at WR with Doubs out along with Watkins and Lazard questionable. On top of that RB Jones is questionable and 3 of their 4 starting offensive lineman didn’t practice on Wednesday. In all, 8 of Green Bay’s 11 starting offensive players missed practice or were very limited this week. There is also not enough being made about Rodgers thumb injury as he has been missing practice and his numbers have plummeted since getting hurt. Prior to the thumb injury he was completing 68% of his passes with 11 TDs, 3 interceptions and a passer rating of 95. After the injury his numbers are 61% completion rate with 6 TDs, 4 interceptions and a passer rating of 81. If Green Bay could only score 9 points last week vs a Detroit defense ranked dead last in YPP allowed at 6.4 how are they going to score points vs Dallas who gives up 4.8 YPP? On the other side, we expect Dallas to run the ball a lot eating clock here. They run the ball almost 48% of the time (8th in the NFL) and teams are running on GB over 50% of the time (most in the NFL) because they struggle to stop the run (26th in the NFL). Same could be said with GB’s offense. Dallas weakness defensively is stopping the run and with all of the injuries the Packers have out wide, they will run as much as possible. On top of that, Dallas is #1 in the NFL in sack differential at +21 so they can put pressure on the QB which is bad news for Rodgers if the Packers abandon the running game which we have a hard time believing they will. Both defenses rank in the top 5 in the NFL vs the pass this season as well. Cold temps in Green Bay on Sunday with highs in the mid 30’s and 10 MPH winds. These teams are a combined 11-5-1 on the year to the UNDER with Green Bay games averaging 38 total points and Dallas games averaging 40 total points. This one should be lower scoring and we’ll grab the UNDER

#251/252 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 49 Points – Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Two of the better offenses in the NFL facing off here with the Browns ranking 4th and the Dolphins 5th in total offense. Football Outsiders DVOA ranks these 2 offenses 2nd (Miami) and 5th (Cleveland) while they have the defenses ranked 24th and 27th. Cleveland is coming off a bye following their 32 points output vs a very good Cincinnati defense. We expect them to have a great offensive gameplan with 2 weeks to get ready and they are facing a Miami defense that has allowed at least 24 points in 5 of their last 6 games. The Fins are allowing opponents to score an average of 2.2 points per drive which is 26th in the NFL. The Miami offense is humming with Tua back under center. They are averaging 24 PPG on the season, however in games that Tua starts and completes the Fins are putting up 29 PPG. The Browns defense has decent (middle of the pack) overall numbers however they’ve faced the 25th best schedule of offenses thus far. They’ve allowed at least 23 points in 6 of their 8 games and 30+ points in 3 games. Miami will be the highest rated offense Cleveland has faced this year. They’ve faced only 1 other team ranked inside the top 10 in total offense and that was the Chargers who put up 30 on this defense. Cleveland is allowed 2.21 points per drive which is 27th in the NFL. The weather looks perfect for scoring in Miami on Sunday with temps in the 80’s and light winds at 5 MPH. The implied final score based on this total is right around Miami 26, Cleveland 23. We expect both to top those numbers. Over in this one.

#114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Panthers +2.5 over Atlanta Falcons, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 just met on October 30th in Atlanta with the Falcons going off as a 4.5 point favorite. The Birds won the game 37-34 in OT but were outgained on both a YPG (+72) and YPP (+0.4) basis in that game. Now they are on the road and laying 2.5 points just 2 weeks later. Based on the line on October 30th, the Panthers should be a slight favorite here but they are getting nearly a FG. We like the value with Carolina in this one. Panther QB Walker had 317 yards passing, a career high, vs a leaky Atlanta defense that allowed 6.1 YPP (31st in the NFL). He should have plenty of confidence in this rematch just 2 weeks later. In his lone home start this season, Walker and the Panthers rolled over the Bucs 21-3 and it wasn’t a fluke as they outgained Tampa by +2.0 yards per play in that win. They take on an Atlanta team that is 0-4 SU on the road this year, getting outgained in each game by a combined 592 yards or an average of -148 YPG. Despite their 4-4 record, the Falcons have been outgained by an average of -0.8 YPP which ranks them 29th in the NFL. Carolina ranks 18th in YPP margin at -0.11. Atlanta has been a dog in every game but one this season (first match up with Carolina) and now they are laying points on the road for just the 4th time since the start of the 2019 season. We’ll take the better defense (Panthers 17th in YPP defense, Atlanta 31st) as a home dog in prime time.

#474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Saints +1.5 over Baltimore Ravens, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - MNF road favorites are 0-2 ATS this season and just 2-9 ATS since the start of last season. We like this match up for the Saints and feel they are undervalued due to their 3-5 SU record. They are better than that record indicates. They’ve been quite unlucky in the turnover category this season ranking dead last in the NFL turnover margin at -9. Meanwhile, the Ravens have been very fortunate in that category ranking 2nd in the NFL in TO margin at +6. That fact is, teams that win the TO battle for a specific game win close to 80% of the time so the numbers above for the Saints & Ravens have factored in heavily to their current records. In large part because of that Baltimore has played above their estimated win total thus far of 4 (based on advanced stats of each game) and New Orleans has played below their estimated win total which is also 4. We expect the TO’s to even out so to speak for each team moving forward. The Saints, despite their 3-5 record, are actually 6th in the NFL in YPP margin at +0.64 and the 6 teams ahead of them all have winning records with the exception of SF which is 4-4. The combined record of the 5 teams ahead of the Saints in this key category is 30-10. Baltimore ranks 11th in YPP margin despite their superior record. New Orleans is +75 YPG this season while the Ravens have actually been outgained by about 5 YPG this season. We like the way New Orleans is playing right now outgaining 4 straight opponents including Cincinnati and Seattle who rank 10th and 11th in total offense. The defense is coming off a shutout holding the Raiders scoreless last weekend and they’ve held 3 straight opponents to below their season average in YPG. The offense is humming averaging 31 PPG over their last 4 and they’ve hit at least 399 total yards in 3 of those 4 games. Baltimore’s pass game took a huge hit here with leading receiver TE Andrews declared out so they will have to rely even more on the running game tonight (starting RB Edwards most likely out as well) vs a Saints defense that ranks 11th in the NFL in rush defense. We think the Saints are the better team and getting points at home. Take it.

#472 ASA top play on 10* KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -12 vs Tennessee Titans, 8:20 PM ET - The Titans 5-2 record is very misleading for several reasons: They have been outgained in every game but one and have a negative Net Yardage differential of -0.6Yards Per Play. Their 5 wins have come against teams with a combined 13-22 record. Their two losses to winning teams the Bills (by 34 and Giants by 1-point). They were +10 at Buffalo (similar to KC) and lost by 34. KC 4-3 ATS last seven off a bye with a +14PPG differential. Titans QB Tannehill is ? with an ankle injury. If he can’t go that means rookie QB Malik Willis will start, and he was 6 of 10 last week for 55 yards with an INT and is not a threat in the passing game. Tennessee got a huge rushing game from Derrick Henry last week but that was against the Texans defense that is last in the NFL in rushing defense. That won’t happen here against a Chiefs defense that is 3rd in the NFL in rushing D at 92YPG allowed. Kansas City and Mahomes should put up huge numbers with their 2nd ranked passing offense (296PYPG) versus the 24th ranked Titans pass D (254.7PYPG).

#453/454 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 46 Points – Buffalo Bills vs NY Jets, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Divisional Unders have been lights out this year hitting nearly 70% with a record of 27-12-1 to the Under. We have 2 of the top defenses in the NFL in this game with Buffalo ranking #4 in total defense and the Jets #6. Offensively the Jets have been poor with Zach Wilson at the helm. The Bills are top 5 in both sack percentage and sacks per game and Wilson has been terrible under pressure this season. He has the lowest passer rating when pressured in the entire NFL among starting QB’s. NY has scored just 33 total points the last 2 weeks vs New England and Denver. Now facing a top tier Buffalo defense that hasn’t allowed more than 21 points to anyone this season, we see the NY offense continuing to struggle. The Buffalo offense is 2nd in the NFL in scoring at 29 PPG however they got a huge jump on the season in that stat scoring 72 points in their first 2 games. Since then, Buffalo has gotten to 30 points just once in their last 5 games and they are averaging 26 PPG during that stretch. They are facing a Jets defense that hasn’t allowed more than 22 points in any of their last 5 games and they are giving up only 15 PPG over that span. The Jets have gone Under the total in 3 straight games and Buffalo has gone Under 5 consecutive games. Jets games average 42 total points this season and Buffalo’s average 43 total points and this total is set at 47. These 2 teams have combined to play 15 games this season and only 4 have gone Over the total. Since 2019 these AFC East rivals have met 6 times and the average points scored in these games is 37. Only 1 of those 6 meetings has topped 44 points and 4 of the 6 have totaled 37 or less. Under is the play here.

#309/310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 45.5 Points – Philadelphia Eagles vs Houston Texans, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Eagles are 2 TD favorites here so we anticipate them building a lead and sitting on it as they’ve done often this year. The lead the NFL in first half scoring at 21 PPG, however once they get a lead they grind it out averaging just 7 PPG in the 2nd half which ranks them 27th. Philly already runs the ball over 51% of the time ranking them 5th in the NFL and we expect an even heavier dose of the ground game tonight vs the Texans 32nd ranked run defense. That should eat clock especially in the 2nd half with the lead if things play out as planned. Houston’s offense will have big problems scoring against one of the top defensive units in the NFL. The Texans rank 29th in scoring at 16 PPG and they’ve only topped 20 points once the entire season. In their 2 games vs top 10 defenses this season (Denver & Indy) the Texans averaged just 14.5 PPG and 260 YPG. Those were their first 2 games of the season and since that Houston has played 5 teams with defenses ranked 15th or lower. Tonight they face a Philly stop unit that ranks 3rd in total defense, 2nd in YPP defense, and has allowed an average of 13.8 PPG over their last 6 games. Houston games are averaging 39 total points this season while Philly games are averaging 45, both under this posted number. These two are both slower paced teams ranking 19th and 21st so plays should be limited here especially if the Eagles build and lead and milk the clock. We anticipate this game landing in the low 40’s and we’ll grab the Under.

#277/278 ASA PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points – Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Cincinnati defense has quietly become one of the best in the NFL this season. Ranked 6th overall DVOA (per Football Outsiders) and they’ve allowed 20 points or fewer in every game (in regulation) with the exception of their match up vs New Orleans. The impressive part about their defensive performance this season is they’ve faced the 8th toughest offensive schedule thus far. We expect this defense to have success vs a Cleveland offense that started the season red hot but has tailed off scoring 20 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. In their last 2 contests, the Browns have scored a total of 35 points and averaged just 332 total yards vs defenses ranked 23rd (Baltimore) and 15th (New England). The Browns will run the ball a lot (32 carries per game – 5th in the NFL) and they will be without TE Njoku who has become QB Brissett’s favorite target with 34 receptions on the season. The Cleveland defense has been up and down this season but they get two huge contributors back tonight with DE’s Garrett and Clowney both expected to play. They’re coming off their most impressive defensive performance of the season holding a very potent Baltimore offense to just 254 total yards on only 4.0 YPP. Their weakness this season has been vs the run but last week kept Baltimore (3rd in the NFL in rushing) to only 3.6 YPC. We’re not sure Cincinnati can even take advantage of Cleveland if they do struggle to stop the run here as they run the ball very little (36% of the time) and they average just 87 YPG on the ground. The Bengal passing game takes a huge hit with WR Chase out – top 6 in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TD’s. Division Totals 25-10 to the UNDER entering Sunday and we’ll call for another one on Monday night.

#273/274 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 42 Points – San Francisco 49ers vs LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We were on this UNDER the first time these 2 met this season back in September and we’re on it again. In that game the total was set at 42 points and it was an easy Under with SF winning 24-9. The 2 teams combined for only 584 total yards on 4.7 YPP. This rivalry has now played to the Under in 5 of the last 6 meetings and they’ve averaged just 40 total points in those 6 games. The defenses are the superior units on both teams. They both rank in the top 5 in total defense and they know each other very well. San Fran is coming off by far their worst defensive performance of the season allowing 44 points to a potent KC offense so you can expect the Niners stop unit to play with a chip on their shoulder here. Prior to that SF was allowing only 14.8 PPG. The Rams defense has been lights out as well since their opening season loss to Buffalo where they allowed 31 points. Since that game LA is giving up only 19 PPG. Offensively the Rams have fallen off a cliff this season averaging only 17 PPG (29th in the NFL) after putting up 27 PPG (6th in the NFL) last year. San Francisco isn’t a whole lot better averaging just over 20 PPG on the season and they will be without one of their top offensive weapons, WR/RB Deebo Samuel, who will sit with an injury. In the first meeting Samuel accounted for 117 to SF’s 327 total yards. The Niners offense has faced only 2 top 10 defenses this season (current ranking) and they have averaged just 17 PPG in those 2. The Rams have faced 3 top 10 defenses this season and they have scored only 29 total points in those games (9.6 PPG). Division Totals are 25-10 to the Under this season and we see another low scoring game here.

#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals +3.5 over Minnesota Vikings, nday at 1:00 PM ET - The Vikings are seen to have a scheduling advantage here as they are coming off a bye but it’s very minimal at best because Arizona played last Thursday so they’ve had 10 days off as well. The Vikings are 5-1 SU but they’ve been extremely fortunate to get to that mark. They rank 27th in the NFL in YPP differential at -0.67 despite playing an easy schedule (20th SOS thus far). The only teams they’ve faced that currently has a winning records are Philadelphia and the Vikings were dominated in that game (24-7 loss) and Miami (Vikings won by 8) who actually outgained Minnesota by over 100 yards and had to start rookie Thompson at QB. Since getting toasted by KC in the opener, the Cardinals have outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents. Their offense has some momentum coming in off a 42 point outburst vs a solid Saints defense and facing a bad Minnesota defense (27th in total defense) we expect the Arizona offense to have a very solid day. That success coincided with the return of their top WR Hopkins who had over 100 yards receiving in his first game back from suspension. QB Murray is very comfortable with him and has much better numbers when Hopkins is on the field. Also home field advantage is limited at best in Arizona games as they are a much better road team than a home team. They have a 10-2 SU regular season road record since the start of last year and as a road underdog the Cards have covered 8 straight as a road dog winning all 8 games OUTRIGHT. We feel Minnesota is overvalued here and getting more than a FG with Arizona is the way to go.

#101/102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – Baltimore Ravens vs Tampa Bay Bucs, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - TB’s offense is broken right now. They rank 22nd in total offense, 26th in scoring offense and 32nd, dead last, in rushing offense. They have been held to 20 points or less in 5 of their 7 games and the last two weeks they scored 18 vs Pittsburgh (ranked 28th in total defense) and 3 points vs Carolina (ranked 18th in total defense). Their games this season are averaging just 35 total points. The Baltimore defense is allowing 23 PPG, however much of that game in a game they allowed 42 points vs Miami early in the season when the Fins were coming from behind and put up 28 points in the 4th quarter. Minus that game the Ravens defense has been quite solid giving up an average of 19.8 PPG. The Baltimore offense got off to a hot start this season but they have not topped 23 points in any of their last 4 games, all going Under the total. These 2 teams have combined to play 14 games this season with only 3 going Over the total. With the spread as of this writing sitting at TB -1, the expected final score would be right around 23-22 or 24-22 in favor of the Bucs. We don’t see either team getting to those numbers. Under on Thursday night.

#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New England -8 over Chicago, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Pats are better than their 3-3 record as they rank 7th in the NFL in YPP differential. They’ve outgained 4 of their last 6 opponents with Green Bay and Miami their only opponents to outgain them. Starting QB Mac Jones looks like he will return tonight, however if for some reason he does not back up QB Bailey Zappe has really played well and last week he put up over 300 yards passing and completed over 70% of his passes. Chicago will be in trouble offensively here vs a Patriot defense that has allowed 15 points over their last 2 games. They’ve outscored their last 2 opponents 67-15 and the defense has allowed just 4.9 YPP over their last 2 games vs Detroit (ranked 2nd in total offense) and Cleveland (ranked 5th in total offense). Now they face a Chicago team ranked 28th in total offense so we just don’t see the Bears doing much on that side of the ball. Chicago has scored 12 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games and the only 2 games they topped that number was vs Houston (ranked 31st in total defense) and Minnesota (ranked 26t in total defense). The Patriots have scored 24 or more in 4 straight games and that’ll be enough to get this cover. Belichick is 62-32 ATS in October and we look for his defense to own Chicago and QB Fields in this game. Lay the points.

#470 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco 49ers +1 over Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We love looking strong and hard at defensive home dogs and we have one here. The 49ers defense has been outstanding this season ranking 1st in total defense and 2nd in passing defense, rushing defense, and scoring defense. They are allowing opposing teams to run just 5.3 PLAYS in the red zone this season which is tops in the NFL. San Fran is also getting some reinforcements back on that side of the ball (DE Joey Bosa included) after a number of players missed last week. The Niners are also coming off an embarrassing loss @ Atlanta last week but it was a tough situational spot playing back to back Sundays on the east coast AND the injury situation for SF last week was not good. Offensively they get LT Williams, one of the best in the NFL, back this week which is huge. They also picked up RB McCaffrey from Carolina and he will be in the line up this week, especially in red zone situations. QB Garoppolo and company should have plenty of success vs a banged up KC secondary that has allowed 75% of their opponents yards to come through the air (most in the NFL) and has given up at least 2 TD passes in every game this season, they only NFL defense to do that. SF comes in undervalued with a 3-3 record but they’ve been a bit unlucky with injuries this season. The fact is, they have the 2nd best YPP differential in the NFL behind only Buffalo so they are absolutely better than their record. They are getting a KC team here coming off their huge game vs Buffalo and in their most recent 2 road games the Chiefs lost @ Indianapolis and beat a down Tampa team despite getting outgained by 1.0 YPP in that game. Under head coach Shanahan, the 49ers have covered the spread 15 of the last 20 times they’ve been an underdog. We like them on Sunday.

#461/462 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 39.5 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This line opened 41 and has dropped to 39.5. Not enough in our opinion. How many points is Carolina going to score in this game? They just traded away their 2 top offensive weapons – RB McCaffrey and WR Anderson – and they’ll be starting 3rd string QB PJ Walker again this week. Last Sunday they scored only 3 points offensively as their lone TD came on an interception. McCaffrey accounted for 158 of their 203 total yards and he is now in San Francisco playing for the Niners. Starting QB Walker has completed only 57% of his passes in his NFL career and last week he threw for 60 yards vs the Rams. He’s now facing a TB defense that ranks 7th in pass defense and opponents are averaging just 5.6 yards per pass attempt (5th best in the NFL). The Panthers have scored a total of 63 points over their last 4 games for an average of 15.7 PPG. However, they have also scored THREE defensive TD’s during that stretch so their offense is actually averaging a paltry 10 PPG and they are in far worse shape offensively right now than they were for any of those 4 games. So why not just lay 13 points with Tampa Bay in this game? We don’t trust their offense. Last week vs a Pittsburgh team that was without many of their key players in the secondary, the Bucs could only score 18 points. They have been held to 21 points in every game but one this season and they can’t run the ball (last in the NFL at 67 YPG). Carolina’s strength has been their pass defense allowing 223 YPG on 6.6 yards per pass attempt. The Tampa offense ranks 21st in YPG and PPG despite playing 4 defenses ranked 15th or worse including 2 ranked 27th (TB scored 21) and 29th (TB scored 18). Tampa probably has to get to 30+ to give this game a chance at going Over the total and we just don’t see that happening. We go Under here.

#303/304 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 44.5 Points – New Orleans Saints vs Arizona Cardinals, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Saints were without 7 offensive starters to end last game and could struggle here vs a surging Arizona defense. New Orleans is in shambles at the WR position with Thomas and Landry most likely out again. Olave looks like he may come back. Both QB’s for the Saints – Winston & Dalton – are injured and were limited in practice and they’re on a short week. Arizona’s defense has played outstanding the last 3 weeks limiting their opponents to 12, 20, and 19 points. The last 2 results listed were impressive holding 2 top 8 scoring offenses, Philly & Seattle, well below their season average point totals. Along with that, the Cardinal defense limited Seattle to just 4.5 YPP (they average 6.2 YPP) and Philadelphia to 5.0 YPP (they average 5.6 YPP). We look for New Orleans banged up offense to struggle here. On the other side, the Arizona offense has been poor all season long. Last week they averaged only 4.4 YPP and scored 3 offensive points vs a Seattle defense that ranks 30th in total defense and YPP allowed. The only TD Arizona came up with was a defensive scored. They rank dead last in the NFL in YPP at only 4.8. They do get WR Hopkins back for this game from a suspension but he hasn’t played all year so we don’t expect a huge jump. While Hopkins returns, the Cardinals lose WR Brown to injury and he has been their top WR this year so those 2 things offset each other. New Orleans defense is much healthier than their offense at this point. They have given up some points over the last 3 games vs Cincinnati, Seattle, and Minnesota but they are still limiting opponents to 2.5 red zone scoring attempts per game and 1.2 red zone TD’s per game which both rank 5th best in the NFL. They’ve been a bit unlucky allowing opponents to score 1 point for every 13 yards gained which ranks them 31st in that category after ranking 6th last year (1 point for every 16 yards gained by opponents). We think the Saints defense will look much better in this game vs one of the worst offenses in the league so far this season. Unders continue to rule the day in the NFL with a record of 56-36 (61%) on the season and this total is set 2 points higher than the average NFL score in 2022 which is 43 total points. Under is the play on Thursday night.

#275 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver Broncos +4.5 over LA Chargers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Denver steps into this one with a 2-3 SU record with their 3 losses coming by a combined 13 points and 2 of those losses coming by a FG or less. Their overall offensive numbers are decent rating as average in both YPP and YPG. The problem is they’ve struggled in the redzone and their efficiency numbers (1 point for every 22.9 yards) is at the bottom of the NFL. We don’t expect that to continue. We look for those numbers to start to even out and Denver will put points on the board. This looks like a game where that may happen as the Broncos have had 11 days off to make some changes after playing on Thursday night and they are facing an LAC defense that ranks 31st in scoring. LA just allowed their last 3 opponents (Jax, Houston, and Cleveland) to score 38, 24, and 28 points. The Chargers offense has put up some good numbers but 3 of the 5 opponents they’ve faced rank 25th, 27th, and 30th in scoring defense and 4 of the 5 stop units they’ve played rank outside the top half in DVOA per Football Outsiders. The one top 10 defense they’ve faced was Jacksonville and the Chargers were held to 10 points in that game. Now we don’t expect anything like that tonight, but Denver’s defense is the best LAC has faced ranking 3rd in total defense and 4th in defensive DVOA. They also rank 3rd in the NFL in pass defense which matches up nicely with the Chargers pass heavy offense. LA is banged up on the offensive line with 3 starters potentially out and at WR as Allen will most likely sit again. In a division game we like the much better defense in what we think will be a tight game. Getting more than the key numbers of 3 and 4, it’s a go for us on Denver +4.5.

#274 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Eagles -6 or -6.5 over Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - This is a rough situational spot for Dallas as they played the Rams on the west coast last weekend and now they are in Philly on the east coast this weekend. It’s also their 3rd road trip in the last 4 weeks. It looks like Dallas QB Prescott will be sidelined again for this game leaving it up to back up Cooper Rush who was solid the first 2 weeks but struggled a bit last week in LA as teams have more film on him. Rush threw for only 102 yards last week, had 10 first downs, and Dallas only averaged 4.5 YPP. They picked up a defensive score which helped them to a 22-10 win. So just 14 points on offense which won’t get it done here vs a potent Eagle attack that ranks 2nd in total offense and 5th in scoring. The Dallas defense has been superb this year, however they haven’t faced a top notch attack yet. The offenses they’ve faced so far this season rank 20th, 21st, 22nd, 25th and 26th in total offense. They’ve faced one mobile QB this season (NYG Daniel Jones) but Philadelphia QB Hurts has been playing at a completely different level and we look for the Cowboy defense to struggle here. Despite their 4-1 record, Dallas has been pretty luck as they are actually getting outgained by -13 YPG and outrushed 4.2 YPC to 4.7 YPC. The Eagles are every bit as good as their 5-0 record outgaining opponents by +121 YPG with the 2nd best point differential in the NFL behind only Buffalo. The Eagles are definitely the better team here, in the much better situation, and will be motivated after getting rolled by Dallas twice last season. Anything under a TD we’ll lay in this one.

#267/268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 41.5 Points - Carolina Panthers vs LA Rams, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Two of the worst offenses in the NFL go at it in this one. Football Outsiders DVOA have these offenses rated 31st (Carolina) and 26th (LA). The Panthers rank dead last in the NFL in total offense (YPG) and the Rams rank 26th . When it comes to scoring the Rams are averaging only 16 PPG (28th) and Carolina has put up 18 PPG (24th). Both defenses are better than the opposing offenses. Carolina did give up a season high 37 points to San Francisco last weekend, however the Niners scored on an interception return for TD and a 3-yard TD drive after Carolina was stopped on downs. Prior to that the Panthers were allowing just 21 PPG in their first 4 games. They should fare much better than that here vs a Rams offense that has fallen off a cliff this season. LA has been held to 10 points or less in 3 of their 5 games this season. Their only halfway decent offensive performance was vs an Atlanta defense that ranks 27th in the NFL. On the other side of the ball the Rams should have lots of success on defense. They are facing 3rd string QB PJ Walker in this one who steps in for an injured Baker Mayfield. Since giving up 31 points to Buffalo in the season opener, the LA defense has allowed just 5 offensive TD’s in their last 4 games. If we subtract the defensive & special teams TD’s, the Rams are allowing only 15.75 PPG over their last 4 games. Carolina has been held to 16 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games and they rank dead last in the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate. We can’t imagine they’ll improve with Walker at QB. Under is our play here.

#266 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Falcons +4.5 over San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - A terrible spot here for the Niners. They played last week @ Carolina and came away with a 37-15 win and had to stay on the east coast this week taking on Atlanta. Their 37 points last week was a bit deceiving as they had a defensive TD and a 3 yard drive late in the game when Carolina was shut out on downs. The defense was successful as well facing a bad Carolina offense that ranks 30th in the NFL averaging 4.8 YPP. This week will be tougher for this SF team facing a better Atlanta offense with a defense that is really banged up. 3 of their 4 starting defensive linemen including Bosa, their top LB, and a few DB’s, including Mosely their top corner, all out here. The SF defense is #1 in the NFL vs the run this season, however with all the injuries up front they will take a step back here vs an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in the NFL averaging almost 170 YPG on the ground. The Niners have also had problems with mobile QB’s this season. They’ve faced just 2 QB’s with similar mobility to Atlanta’s Marcus Mariota and lost both of those games vs Denver (Russell Wilson) and Chicago (Justin Fields). The last 2 teams they’ve played, Rams & Panthers, rank 32nd and 28th in rushing so today will be a big adjustment for this banged up SF defense. Atlanta perfect vs the spread (5-0 ATS) and their biggest loss this season was by 6 points last week @ Tampa. This one will be close and we’ll grab the points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 Points – Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - This has been an extremely high scoring series as of late with each of the last 4 getting to at least 55 points. The last 4 meetings between these two AFC West rivals have averaged 62.5 PPG. KC’s offense looks a bit different without WR Hill, however they have still been extremely efficient scoring 1 point for every 11.9 yards gained which is tops in the NFL. They have scored at least 27 points in 3 of their 4 games and they’ve already topped 40 points twice this season. Mahomes has been brilliant when he starts vs the Raiders scoring at least 30 points in all but 1 game with an average of 37 PPG. He should light it up again tonight vs a LV defense that ranks 28th in opponent completion percentage, 27th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and 24th in YPG allowed through the air. This will be the worst pass defense Mahomes has faced this season. Can the Raiders keep up here? That will be the key because we don’t want KC to get out to a big lead and milk the clock. We think they can. Vegas has scored at least 22 points in 3 of their 4 games and they rank 8th in the NFL in scoring efficiency putting up 1 point for every 14.8 yards gained. QB Carr has been a bit up and down this season but he should play well tonight vs a KC defense that is allowing a completion rate of almost 71% (31st in the NFL) and one that ranks 27th in total pass YPG allowed. They’ve been able to move the ball on offense ranking 11th in YPG but they’ve stalled in the red zone with just a 44% rate once they get inside the 20 yard line. The Raiders have gotten into the red zone an average of 4.5 times per game which is 2nd in the NFL only behind tonight’s opponent the Chiefs. The weather is perfect in KC tonight with light winds and temps in the low 70’s. We expect lots of scoring opportunities tonight and this one goes OVER the total

#475/476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43 Points – Dallas Cowboys vs LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This total is currently set at 43 points which may seem low but the average points scored thus far in the NFL is 42.8 per game so this is a tick higher than the average. We think it should be set lower than this. The LA Rams offense has dropped off a cliff this year ranking 31st in YPP and 28th in total offense while averaging just 17.5 PPG. They have faced 2 top tier defenses this year in Buffalo and San Francisco and the Rams scored 10 & 9 points in those 2 games. This Dallas defense is on the same tier. They are allowing only 15.5 PPG on the season and they rank 2nd in the NFL giving up just 1 point for every 19.9 yards gained. The Dallas offense is not good. Cooper Rush will be playing his 3rd game at QB so teams now have some film on him and we look for him to struggle. The Boys rank 26th in total offense and average less than 18 PPG. The Rams D is middle of the pack in most key categories this year but we think they are better than that and they shouldn’t need to be great here vs a fairly pedestrian Dallas offense. Dallas games have averaged 33 total points this season and LA Rams games have averaged 41 total points, both below this total. We feel the defenses are the superior unit on both teams this season and we like UNDER the total in this one.

#465 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Dolphins -3 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Fins will be starting Teddy Bridgewater at QB in this one and that’s not a bad thing. He’s a veteran and really could be a starter in this league and his ATS record under center is spectacular at 42-21 ATS. Bridgewater stepped in vs Cincinnati after Tagovailoa was injured in their most recent game and he threw for 193 yards and a TD. The Jets have a 2-2 record but could easily be 0-4 as they rallied from 13 points down in the FINAL 2 MINUTES vs Cleveland for the 1 point win and rallied from 10 points down in the final 8:00 minutes to beat a bad Pittsburgh team last week. The Fins have played the tougher schedule and they are +0.3 YPPG differential compared to -0.3 YPP differential for the Jets who have played the easier slate. Miami won by 7 in both meetings last season and outgained the Jets by 778 to 608 in the 2 meetings combined. We’ve upgraded Miami this year while the NYJ power rating remains about the same. The Fins actually have the best record in the NFL since week 9 of last season with an 11-2 SU record tied with the Chiefs. The Jets are 2-2 but could easily be 0-4 as they scored 2 TD’s in the final 7 minutes last week to come from behind and squeak by a bad Pittsburgh team and they scored 2 TD’s in the final 2 minutes @ Cleveland to win by 1. Two weeks ago the Jets were +6.5 at home vs Cincy and lost by 12 and now only +3 vs Miami who we have rated as dead even vs the Bengals on a neutral field? Bad line and we like Miami, with extra time to prepare after losing their first game of the season last Thursday at Cincinnati, to win by more than a FG here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 43.5 Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - NFL scoring as a whole is down this season with the average total points scored in a game being 42.8PPG. Last year at this same time NFL games were averaging 47PPG. In this contest we get two struggling offenses and two upper echelon defenses. The Colts are 25th in Yards Per Play offense this season at 5.0, Denver is 16th at 5.4. When it comes to total yards per game, passing YPG, rushing YPG and points scored these two teams rank in the bottom half of the league in nearly every statistical offensive category. When it comes to scoring, both teams have been awful with the Broncos averaging 16.5PPG (30th) and the Colts scoring 14.3PPG which is last in the NFL. When it comes to the all-important Yards Per Point statistics, these two are last and next to last in the NFL taking more than 20-yards to score 1-point. The defenses for each team are a different story though with the Colts allowing 297YPG (6th best) and the Broncos giving up 284.8YPG (4th). These two defenses don’t give up big plays either with Denver allowing 4.9-Yards Per Play, Indianapolis gives up 4.9. Denver is allowing 17PPG on the season, Indianapolis gives up 21.3PPG. The Colts are on a 9-0 Under streak their last nine games, Denver is Under in 11 of their last fifteen overall.

#271 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals +1 versus Carolina Panthers 4 PM ET - Both 1-2 but the Strength of Schedule for both teams is drastically different. Arizona has played the 4th toughest schedule, Carolina the 30th. Carolina has been outgained in 2 of 3 games and barely outgained the Giants by +10-yards. Arizona has outgained 2 of 3 opponents this season and has put up 353 YPG despite facing two top tier defenses of the Chiefs and Rams. The Panther offense has struggled. They rank 30th in total YPG, 31st in passing and 14th in rushing. Carolina ONLY has 5 offensive TD’s this season. Against the Saints last week they managed just 293 total yards of offense, 12 first downs and 5.0YPPL. The Panthers defense is overvalued. Last week they allowed a Saints offense that has struggled this season to gain 426 total yards and 6.7YPPL. Carolina forced 3 TO’s though, one for a score. The Cardinals offense has gotten off to slow starts in games, getting outscored 13-56 in first halves this season. Cards QB Murray has played well completing 63.8% of his passes with 784 total yards, 3 TD’s to just 2 INT’s but they have just 1 explosive play on the season of 30+ yards. The Cardinals defense is 11th in stopping the run this season which is the Panthers strength. Their Pass Defense is 30th in the NFL but now they face Baker Mayfield (32ND worst QBR). The Panthers have owned the Cardinals in recent years with 6 straight wins, including last year’s 34-10 win. Last season the Cardinals were 7-point HOME favorites last year with Colt McCoy starting under center. Arizona is 19-6-1 ATS their last 27 regular season games as a ROAD DOG with 7 straight outright wins. Carolina is 3-10 ATS their last 13 as a favorite dating back to 2020.

#259/260 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 45.5 LA Chargers vs Houston Texans, 1 PM ET - Injuries have potentially derailed the Charger season with QB Herbert nursing a rib injury, DE Joey Bosa out with a groin injury and multiple O-line men out for the season. The injuries on the O-line have forced the Chargers to start two rookies who have been outmatched early on. With that thought in mind we expect a heavy dose of the running game for the Chargers as they try to protect Herbert and exploit the Texans weakness defensively. Houston is 32nd or last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at 202.3 on 5.6-yards per rush given up. LAC has struggled to run the football at 2.6-yards per carry and 59-yards per game, but they’ve also faced the best rush D in the NFL in Jacksonville and the 9th best in KC. The Chargers have faced three quality offenses in Jacksonville (6th total YPG), Kansas City (7th) and the Raiders who are 18th so their points per game allowed of 28PPG is higher than it should be. Houston on the other hand is 29th in total yards per game gained at 287.3YPG, 25th in passing, 27th in rushing and 26th in PPG so don’t expect a huge scoring game from them. These two teams rank 19th and 23rd in Yards Per Point offense meaning they lack big plays and tend to grind out drives for scores. Both teams also rank in the bottom half of the league in explosive plays.

#102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over Miami Dolphins, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The team with a 1-2 record is favored by a FG over the team with a perfect 3-0 record? This is a very solid spot for the Bengals at home. They are in somewhat of a must win here as they are 1-2 and 3 of their last 4 games are away from home. They can’t afford to lose this one. They catch Miami in a terrible spot coming off a gigantic home won over division rival Buffalo. Not only that, the Fins defense has to be gassed here on a short week after facing a whopping 90 offensive snaps from Buffalo’s offense. It was 100 degrees on the field and the Miami defenders were dropping like flies with heat exhaustion, cramping, etc… This will be a very tough week for the Miami defense. On top of that, prior to their huge 21-19 win over Buffalo, the Dolphins had to make a huge rally on the road @ Baltimore scoring 28 points in the final 12:00 minutes of the game to squeak by the Ravens 42-38. Back to back physically and emotionally taxing games and now a short week on the road for Miami. Despite their win Miami was outgained 497 to 212 last week vs the Bills so they were quite fortunate to say the least. After losing 2 tight games to start the season vs Pittsburgh (Bengals had 5 turnovers) and @ Dallas (Bengals just played poorly), they picked up some momentum last week handling the Jets on the road 27-12. QB Burrow finally looked like a top tier signal caller with 275 yards passing and 3 TD’s along with by far his highest QBR of the season. Miami QB Tagovailoa is dealing with a back issue that may cause some problems on a short week. Lay it with Cincinnati.

#489/490 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 39 Points – Dallas Cowboys vs NY Giants, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Neither offense has looked good thus far with the Giants scoring 40 points in 2 games while Dallas has put up just 23 points. The Giants are averaging 5.0 YPP this season (20th in the NFL) and Dallas just 4.7 YPP (31st). With the Cowboys playing a back up QB (Rush) we expect them to keep the ball on the ground quite a bit tonight. The NY defense has been susceptible to the run this season allowing 4.9 YPC and look for Dallas to lean on RB’s Elliott and Pollard rather than a QB making his 3rd career start. The Giants already run the ball often averaging 33 carries per game which is 5th most in the NFL. Jones is an average at best QB who has averaged just 18 PPG in his 8 prime time appearances. Needless to say, we don’t expect either signal caller to light it up through the air tonight. Overall both defenses look like the stronger units in each team with each ranking in the top 10 in points allowed. Each has given up just 36 total points so far on the season. The ground games of each team will eat clock tonight and with the anticipated lack of big plays from the QB position, this game turns into a grinder. Take the Under.

#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Commanders +6.5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Look ahead here was Philly -3 and it’s jumped to 6.5 based on 1 data point for each team. Everyone watched Philadelphia roll over Minnesota on Monday night 24-7 and Washington lose at up and coming Detroit, thus the line move. The Vikings definitely had their chances in the 2nd half vs the Eagles throwing 2 picks in the endzone and another at the Philly 20 yard line. They are also on the road off short week with their Monday night win which is not ideal. IN their only road game thus far Philly nearly lost @ Detroit but pulled out a 38-35 win. While the Eagles offense has looked good averaging 31 PPG, let’s not forget Washington is averaging 28.3 PPG after 2 games and ranks 6th in total offense. Their 28-22 win over Jacksonville in week 1 looks like a solid win after the Jags rolled 24-0 over the Colts in week 2. Last year when these 2 faced off here in Washington, the Eagles were favored by 6.5 as well and won 20-16. The Commanders led that game at half 16-7 and continued to lead in the 4th quarter before losing close. Washington had Heinicke at QB for that game and the yardage was nearly dead even. Now with Wentz at QB we feel they have a shot to win this game outright and they’re getting nearly a full TD. While people bag on Wentz, he’s a big upgrade for Washington. He’s already thrown for 650 yards and 7 TD’s after throwing 27 TD’s and just 7 picks last year. The Eagles 3-7 ATS as favorite since start of 2020 season and we like the division underdog in a solid situational spot here.

#463/464 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 53 Points – Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Buffalo has put up 72 points in 2 games and we don’t see Miami slowing them down here. The Fins actually rank dead last in the NFL in YPP allowed at 6.8 and in opponent yards per pass attempt allowing 8.7. In 2 games last year vs the Fins the Buffalo Bills scored 61 points and we see no reason to think they won’t top 30 again. The difference this year? Miami’s offense looks like they’ll be able to keep up. They scored 42 points last week in a win @ Baltimore and QB Tagovailoa had 6 TD passes. The Fins put up a ridiculous 547 total yards in the game and they are tied with Buffalo with the 2nd best YPP offense in the NFL at 6.7. While the Bills defense has been solid, they faced the Rams with QB Stafford’s injured elbow and a Tennessee team that lost all of their key WR’s from last year and have downgraded fairly big on the offensive line. Sunday will be a different animal for the Buffalo defense to face and they are really banged up on the D Line and in the secondary with both starting safeties potentially out along with starting CB Jackson (out). Miami’s defense looked good vs a pedestrian New England offense (12 PPG on the season) but last week they were blitzed for 38 points vs Baltimore. Buffalo scored 41 points last week in the first THREE QUARTERS and then didn’t score after that because they had a huge lead. We don’t foresee the Bills shutting down Miami so both teams will have to keep scoring in this one. Over is the play.

#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Browns -4 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Steelers offense has been abysmal the first 2 weeks of the season. They rank 30th in YPG & YPP and they’ve been outgained by 300 yards in their 2 games and they’ve scored just 2 offensive TD’s this season. They pulled out a tight win over Cincinnati in OT despite the Bengals turning the ball over 5 times including a pick 6. Even with the +5 turnover mark in that game Pittsburgh had to go to OT in that one. Last week they were topped by New England 17-14 but outgained by a full 1.5 YPP. The Pats missed a FG, punted from the Pitt 40 yard line and ended the game inside the Steeler 20 yard line. New England, after averaging just 5 YPP vs Miami in week 1, had some solid success offensively last week averaging 5.7 YPP. Cleveland is looking for a bounce back after blowing a home lead and losing to the Jets 31-30. The Browns were up 30-17 with under 2:00 minutes remaining in last week’s game and allowed NYJ to scored 2 late TD’s to pick up the win. Cleveland has outgained both of their first 2 opponents including on the ground where they are +255 yards through 2 contests. Pittsburgh has gained just 75 and 90 yards on the ground the first two weeks and they are -95 yards on the ground. That’ll play a huge factor here as we expect winds of 20+MPH for this game which means the rushing attack will be more important for each side. The Pitt defense is drastically different with TJ Watt out of the lineup and you could see that last week with 0 sacks vs the Pats. We feel the number gives us value as well. Cleveland was favored by -6.5 vs NYJ last week and now just -4.5 vs a Pittsburgh team that is no better than the Jets in our power ratings. Last year Cleveland was a 5.5 point favorite at home vs Pittsburgh and lost 15-10 and they pushed inside the Steeler 25 yard line on their final drive but were shut out on downs. We like Cleveland to cover this one vs a Steeler team we have tabbed as one of the worst in the NFL.

#291/292 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 48.5 Points – Minnesota Vikings vs Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8:30 PM ET - First off the weather looks good tonight in Philly. It will be warm with highs in the upper 70’s with very light winds. There is a chance of rain but not much and if it does rain it looks spotty. Key is the wind (5 MPH) which won’t affect either passing game. Both offenses looked in midseason form last week with Philly putting up 6.3 YPP vs Detroit and Minnesota averaging 6.5 YPP vs Green Bay. The Eagles had 38 points through 3 quarters and took their foot off the gas up 17 which almost cost them. They didn’t put up a single point in the 4th yet still almost hit 40. Minnesota had 23 points vs GB but were able to rely heavily on the run after building a 20-0 lead. After getting up by 20, the Vikings ran another 26 offensive plays and 16 of those were runs as they were taking time off the clock. In the first half when using the full complement of their offense, Minnesota was able to score points in 3 of their 6 possessions including 2 TD’s. Neither defense was great at the line of scrimmage with each allowing more than 6 YPC last week. Now with both facing solid rushing attacks we should see similar results tonight which will really open up the passing attack on each side. Both teams were successful running the ball last week and that led to Hurts & Minny QB Cousins to combine for 41 completions in 64 attempts for 520 passing yards. And remember, Cousins was facing one of the top secondary’s in the NFL (Packers). We also expect a faster than normal paced game in this one. Last week Minnesota and GB each ran 61 plays and that was with the Vikings milking the clock in the 4th quarter and the Packers were the slowest paced team in the NFL last season and we expect them to look the same this year. Philly & Detroit ran a total of 138 offensive snaps in an up tempo game. The projected score at this total is Philadelphia 26, Minnesota 23 and our model has both of these teams scoring above those numbers. Over is the play tonight.

#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -10 over Chicago, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - While this line may seem high, it’s really not. Green Bay was favored by 11.5 at home last year and won by 15. Chicago played host to a San Francisco team with an inexperienced QB last week (Lance) and the Niners were laying 7 in that road game. The Bears won the game 19-10 but they were dominated on the stat sheet. San Fran outgained Chicago by 1.3 YPP and the Bears only put up 204 total yards with 50 coming on one play. The 49ers also completely controlled the line of scrimmage outrushing the Bears 4.7 YPC to 2.9 YPC. The terrible weather in that game really helped Chicago ugly up the game and hang around in the first half (down 7-0) when they had only 68 total yards at halftime. The Packers lost big in Minnesota but played better than the final score indicated. A couple of big pass drops on offense could have changed the entire game. GB won the line of scrimmage averaging 6.2 YPC but were only able to run the ball 18 times because they got behind 17-0 at half. As we mentioned SF was able to run the ball last week with success on Chicago which we expect GB to do but we also have Aaron Rodgers at the helm rather than Trey Lance. Rodgers has a 20-7 lifetime ATS record vs the Bears and GB has won each of the last 4 meetings by double digits. The Packers have also been huge money makers coming off a loss with a perfect 11-0 ATS record their last 11 games in that situation. This is a huge home game for Green Bay with Tampa on deck. That cannot afford to lose this one and we expect to see them at the top of their game here. We’ll lay the points.

#263/264 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points – Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - These 2 met last year and it was a 22-10 grinder won by the Fins. We expect a similar situation on Sunday. Both of these teams were slower paced the first week of the season with Miami ranking 31st in pace and Baltimore 27th after one game. The Ravens ranked 20th in pace last year so that should stay the same throughout this season. Miami was middle of the pack a year ago but their new head coach McDaniels loves to run the ball and we anticipate them in the bottom third in pace this season. In their first game, the Dolphins put up just 20 points vs New England and 7 of those came on a defensive TD. Defensively they looked really good holding the Pats to just 7 points on 271 total yards (5.0 YPP). The Baltimore offense put up 24 points last week but gained only 274 total yards. They held the Jets to 9 points and while NY had 380 total yards, almost 200 of those yards came when Baltimore was up 24-3 and the game was out of reach. The Jets only averaged 4.8 YPP for the game. In their meeting last year, the Fins and Ravens combined to average only 4.9 YPP and there were 16 punts in the game. There were only 25 points scored by the offenses in that game with Miami returning a fumble 50 yards for a TD. There were 27 possessions in the game and 20 of those last 6 plays or fewer. The defenses dominated that game and we expect the same here. Baltimore loves the run the ball (3rd in carries per game last year) and we look for the Dolphins to run a lot this year with a new scheme from McDaniels whose known as one of the top run game coordinators on the NFL. Running eats clock and shortens the game. These 2 have faced off 6 times since 2014 and only one of those games topped 44 points. The projected score on this game is Baltimore 24, Miami 21 and we don’t expect either team to reach their number. Under is the play.

#103/104 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 54.5 Points – LA Chargers vs KC Chiefs, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - KC scored 44 points by themselves last week vs a really banged up Arizona defense so many will be rushing to bet this Over based on that result alone. We think there is value on the Under in this one. A division game on a short week would lend itself to the Under when the total is set this high. Thursday night NFL totals set higher than 51 have gone Under the total at a 68% rate lifetime. Being division rivals, these 2 teams know each other very well. Last year they totaled 54 and 62 points although the 2nd game was in OT. However, a closer look reveals both games were looking like sure Unders but both teams piled on points late in each game. In the 2 games combined these two rolled up 31 total points with less than 2:30 remaining in regulation (and OT). That means that 27% of the scoring in those 2 games came with less than 2:30 left in the contest. While many will focus on the offensive numbers from last week we were impressed with both defenses. KC held a very potent Arizona offense to just 282 total yards on 4.5 YPP. The Cards had only 7 points entering the 4th quarter when the game was already out of reach. The Chargers defense held an upgraded Las Vegas offense (added WR Adams) to 19 points on 320 total yards. The LA offense was far from spectacular with 24 points on 355 total yards. Thus, three of the four units in this game (LA offense, LA defense, and KC defense) have us looking Under this week and we don’t expect the KC offense to put up nearly 500 yards and 44 points again this week vs a much better defense (and healthier defense). Under is the play in the AFC West game.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Cowboys +2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:20 PM ET - Tom Brady has some of the most impressive numbers of all time, but do you know who has a lifetime undefeated record? Father time! Brady is dealing with some off-field family distractions and is now 45-years old. He’s playing behind a rebuilt offensive line missing 3 starters and he doesn’t do well when pressured. Did you know the Cowboys had the 2nd best DVOA numbers last season behind only the Bills. The Cowboys pass defense was 2nd in the league in both Opponent Completion Percentage at 59.65% and Opponent Average Passer rating at 76.2. The Bucs can’t rely on their running game which was 26th in the league last year averaging 96.3 rushing yards per game. The Cowboys can lean on Elliott and the running game here with the 9th best rushing offense in the NFL a year ago at 122YPG. Dallas can use their passing attack to soften up a stout Tampa rush D as the Bucs were 24th in passing yards allowed per game at 245.3. The Cowboys were the 4th best passing offense in the NFL last season at 279.4PYPG. The Cowboys have been home underdogs 6 times since 2018 and they’ve covered every one of those games winning outright by an average of +13.7PPG. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 52 Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - This is obviously a huge marquee showdown between two teams capable of winning it all in 2022-23 and excitement is high for the start of the season. The oddsmakers know it and have set this number slightly higher than it should be. With that in mind we will play Under here in a game our computers are predicting 48 total points scored. Before we talk about the teams let’s address points or scoring in the NFL. Scoring in the NFL dropped last season after teams averaged 24.8PPG two years ago when there weren’t fans in the stands due to Covid. That in turn made it easier for QB’s to audible and there were fewer offensive penalties. Last season we saw a return to the norm or 23PPG per team or 46-total points per game. Those numbers are more in line with 2013-2019 numbers. Both teams are slightly faster in pace than average (Rams 11th, Bills 14th) but they clearly aren’t overly fast by league standards. When it comes to defense, these two teams are two of the best in the league. The Bills were 1st DVOA last season, the Rams finished 5th. The Bills had the 11th best Yards Per Point defense in the NFL, the Rams were 13th. The Bills allowed the least number of points per game a year ago at 18.3PPG, the Rams were 9th best giving up just 21.3PPG. Both teams have big play capability on offense with Josh Allen and Matt Stafford but in the opener, we see both defenses dominating. Take the value and UNDER in this one.

#101 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -4 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - The Rams have quietly had a dominating run through the playoffs vs very solid opponents. They have outgained the Cards, Bucs, and Niners by a combined 1200 yards to just 824 for their opponents. Their defense has dominated, holding those opponents to an average of 4.7 YPP and just 18 PPG. To give you an idea of how good those numbers are, Buffalo led the entire NFL this year allowing opponents to average 4.8 YPP. Cincy, on the other hand, has allowed 5.9 YPP in the playoffs while gaining only 5.3 YPP. They’ve been outgained in all 3 games yet still won. Their offense has had 34 possessions in the post-season and scored only 5 TD’s. And those were vs defenses all inferior to this LA Rams unit. They’ve benefited from a +5 turnover margin in the playoffs which has kept them alive. We just don’t see the Bengals doing much offensively here. They’ll struggle to run vs a Ram defensive front that hasn’t allowed a single TEAM in the playoffs to reach 65 rushing yards. If the Bengals are forced into obvious passing downs, the Rams defensive front is the best in the NFL at creating pressure while the Cincinnati offensive line is one of the worst pass protecting units in the league. The Rams are built for the Super Bowl. They’ve had a number of key player additions this season (QB Stafford, WR Beckham & LB Miller to name a few) in their quest to get to this point. This was their goal from the beginning of the season. Cincinnati wasn’t expected to be here and based on their stats thus far in the playoffs, they probably shouldn’t be here. LA lost in the Super Bowl a few years ago and are accustomed to this spot. Cincy is not and had to travel for the 3rd straight time in the playoffs. We don’t think the Rams will have a home field advantage per se, however not having to travel is a bonus. If the turnovers stay even in this game, we have little doubt the Rams win and cover this number. Of course, we have no way of projecting that and TO’s are a huge predictor in the outcome. There is often little to no value so to speak in the Super Bowl line or total. That stands again this year as we have LA favored by exactly 4 with our power ratings. Despite that, we’ll simply side with the better overall team who proved they deserve to be here.