ASA 10* PLAY ON Tampa Bay +7 over Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH

We expect Tampa to play much better now that they’ve decided on Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starting QB.  Why they went away from him when Jameis Winston came back in a mystery to us.  Fitzpatrick has his teammates trust and confidence and he just happens to be the highest rated QB in the league at 119.3.  Yes higher than Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes, and Goff.  Now we’re not saying Fitzpatrick is better than those signal callers but he is having a very good season.  Last week he entered the game late @ Cincinnati late in the 3rd quarter with his team down 34-16.  He rallied the Bucs to a 34-34 tie but lost on a last second FG.  The team looked rejuvenated with him under center and we expect them to play very well this weekend.   Carolina is off a 36-21 home win over Baltimore.  They played very well but were an underdog in that game.  Now they are laying nearly a full TD and we simply don’t trust Cam Newton in this role.  This has been a tightly contested series with 3 of the last 4 meetings decided by a FG or less.  The dog has covered 4 straight in this NFC South battle and 3 of Tampa’s 4 losses have come by 5 points or fewer.  The Bucs are better than their 3-4 record as they are actually outgaining their opponents by 52 YPG (Carolina is just +15 YPG on the season).  With Fitzpatrick back at the helm, this team will score points.  We don’t see the Panthers being able to pull away in this game and we give the Bucs a solid shot at the upset.  Take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON San Francisco -1 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - NFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR

We thought the Niners might be in trouble when starting QB Garopollo went down.  They’ve actually played pretty well with CJ Beathard at QB.  He’s thrown for over 1,000 yards and 7 TD’s in his 4 starts.  Three of those starts were against the Chargers, Packers, and Rams so a tough schedule to say the least.  They held 4th quarter leads in their games @ Chargers and @ Packers but were unable to hold on vs those prolific offenses.  Beathard’s only other other start was against this Cardinal team.  Arizona upset San Fran 28-18 in that game a few weeks ago but the Niner absolutely dominated the stats.  In that game the 49ers were +227 yards, +23 first downs, and had a 40:00 to 20:00 minute time of possession edge and lost by 10!  That’s because they had 5 turnovers in the game while Arizona had zippo.  San Fran has been waiting for this rematch and we don’t see any way the Cards can keep up offensively.  We anticipate San Francisco putting up big numbers again (this time on the scoreboard as well) vs an Arizona defense that ranks dead last in the NFL vs the run and has allowed 72 points in their last 2 games.  Meanwhile the Cardinal offense has been putrid.  The rank last in the NFL in most key offensive categories and they have only topped 17 points once this entire year.  They have also not gained more than 268 yards in any game this season.  They are getting outgained by an average of 162 YPG on the season.  That’s bad folks.  While San Fran is playing hard and playing pretty well vs top notch competition as of late, the Cardinals seem to be in a bit of disarray.  They fired their offensive coordinator this week and their top DB wants to be traded.  We see things coming apart at the seams a bit for this team.  The Niners are well coached under Kyle Shanahan and his players respect him.  We think they roll into Arizona and pick up an easy in on Sunday.    

ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh -7.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH

Situationally this game sets up really well for Pittsburgh.  The Steelers look like they are hitting their stride after struggling early in the season.  They scored 69 combined points their most recent 2 games beating Atlanta & Cincinnati.  They also dominated those games on the stat sheet.  They are coming off a bye and surely are ready to put a beat down on a Cleveland team they tied 21-21 to open the season.  In that game the Steelers were the much better team outgaining the Browns 472 to 327 but SIX turnovers did them in.  Even with a +5 turnover differential in the game, Cleveland wasn’t able to win.  Unlike the Steelers who are off a bye, Cleveland is playing their 2nd of back to back road games.  They are also playing for the 8th consecutive week and FOUR of their previous 7 have gone into overtime meaning they’ve logged the equivalent of almost a full extra game in those 8 weeks.  They look like they are running out of gas to us.  They played at Tampa Bay last week and while they lost in OT, the Bucs dominated the game outgaining Cleveland by 150 yards.  Tampa turned the ball over 4 times to just 1 for Cleveland.  Again, even with the big turnover advantage, the Browns were not able to win the game.  The offense continues to struggle as they’ve topped 21 points only twice the entire season vs Tampa Bay (28th in total defense) and Oakland (26th in total defense).  The Cleveland defense looked good early in the season but as we stated, they look like they are running out of gas allowing 45, 38, and 26 points in 3 of their last 4 games.  Pitt coach Tomlin has been very good as a big favorite with a 21-12 ATS record when laying more than a TD.  The Browns have now lost 24 straight road games and we think this one sets up as a potential Pittsburgh thumping.  Lay it. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore -2.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

This line is fluctuating between -2.5 points and -3 points but the majority are still at 2.5  Either way we like the Ravens to get it done at home over the Saints. If you haven’t seen them play yet, it’s worth the time to watch this Ravens defense as it’s dominating. Baltimore beat Tennessee last week 21-0 allowing just 7 first downs and 106 total yards in the game. The Ravens defense has been lights out allowing 14, 14, 9, and 0 points the last 4 gms in regulation. The Saints defense gave up 48 points in opener (to TB) but seem to have righted the ship allowing 19 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games but they’ve played the Browns (24th in scoring), Giants (27th) and Washington (25th). Baltimore is off 3 straight road games and should be happy to be home where they’ve won by 44 and 13 points already this season. Ravens outscoring opponents 62-12 in second half (regulation) of their 6 games this year, thus they are allowing less than a FG average in 2nd half. Baltimore #1 defense allowing 270 YPG (306 is 2nd) also #1 allowing 4.4 yards per play (4.9 is 2nd). We like the Ravens pass defense which is 2nd in the NFL allowing just 188 passing yards per game on the season versus the Saint’s 3rd ranked passing O. Let’s not forget about a Ravens offense that is 9th in the league in yards per game overall and 9th in passing. Baltimore 5-1 SU their last six at home, Saints just 2-4 SU their last six away.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina +5 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We are not a fan of laying points with the Panthers but do like them getting points in this matchup with the Eagles. An interesting game within a game will be the rushing attack of the Panthers versus the Eagles rush defense. It’s literally Strength on strength with Carolina 4th in the NFL in rushing at 139 YPG and Philly #2 at stopping the run allowing 79 YPG. But hold that thought. Are the Eagles really that good at stopping the run? We don’t think so as the Eagles 79 YPG rush defense numbers are a bit skewed as they’ve played the following rush offenses (22nd, 27th, 28th, 29th, 30th, and 31st). The metrics tell us against an average team the Eagles will give up an average of 105RYPG so a good team like Carolina should do more damage on the ground than that. Overall the Eagles defense has given up over 375 yards in 4 of five games this year and over 397 three times. The Panthers have held 2 of the five teams they’ve faced to under 300 total yards of offense. Since their inception in 1995 Carolina is 59-42-1 ATS as a road dog of more than 3 pts and QB Cam Newton is 19-8 ATS as an underdog off a SU loss. Based on strength of schedule and the statistics that account for opponents played, we like Carolina here and the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 46 Points - Arizona @ Green Bay, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

Both of these teams are 4-1 to the OVER this year and we expect another high scoring game on Monday night.  Much has been made of Aaron Rodgers knee problem but the fact is the offense is clicking right now knee problem or not.  They have topped 400 yards in each of the last 2 games and while they scored 22 and 23 points in those games, it should have been much more.  Last week vs Detroit they put up 23 points but the normally reliable Mason Crosby missed 4 FG’s and an extra point thus leaving a potential 13 more points off the board.  A week earlier Green Bay had 19 points just a few minutes into the 2nd half but a terrible Buffalo offense had yet to score so the Pack went pretty conservative offensively and only score one more FG the rest of the way.  We don’t anticipate that happening here.  Green Bay needs a breakout performance (scoring wise) and we think they get it tonight vs a SF defense that has allowed 24, 27, 38, 29, and 28 points in their 5 games this season.  The Niners are 23rd in pass efficiency defense and they do not put much pressure on the QB (1.8 sacks per game).  Rodgers should have a big night.  There is also a good chance he gets WR’s Cobb and Allison back as they practiced on Thursday and they are game time decisions.  Many thought the Niners offense would go in the tank once they lost QB Garopollo for the season.  That really hasn’t been the case as his back up CJ Beathard has led this offense to 27 & 18 points in his absence.  Last week’s 18 point performance should have been MUCH higher as they put up 447 yards vs a solid Arizona defense but missed a FG and had 5 turnovers – many in Arizona territory.  Beathard has thrown for 298 & 349 yards in his 2 starts but he’s also prone to mistakes as he’s turned the ball over 4 times.  Those can lead to defensive scores as he’s given up one in each of his two starts.  The only shut down game for Green Bay’s defense this year was their shutout vs Buffalo.  Let’s not forget the Bills are the worst offense in the NFL averaging only 12 PPG and a terrible 3.7 yards per play which is by far the lowest in the league.  Throw out that game and the Packer defense has allowed an average of 28.5 PPG.  The weather looks decent tonight with temps in the 30’s and little wind (10 MPH or less).  We like the OVER tonight.

ASA 10* PLAY ON New England -3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

We view this as a game the Pats will want to make a statement.  Many have now said that KC is the team to beat in the AFC which is the title that has been held by the Pats for multiple years.  Do you think Belichick & Brady will want to squash that sentiment in this game?  Add to that this is a revenge game from the season opener last year and you can pretty much guarantee they want to make a statement here.  New England has had extra time to get ready for this huge home match up after beating the Colts 38-24 on Thursday night.  While we believe the Chiefs are a very solid team, we also feel they have been very fortunate to date.  They’ve been outgained in 4 of their 5 games (-300 yards on the season) and they have the worst defense in the NFL allowing 462 YPG (ranking 31st in pass defense & 24th in rush defense).  To be 5-0 in that situation means they’ve absolutely gotten some fortunate breaks.  Last week they beat a very good Jacksonville team 30-14 but were handed the win by the Jags who turned the ball over 5 times including throwing 2 picks in the endzone, another at the 1-yard line, and also throwing a pick 6.  The Jags made 5 official trips inside KC’s 20 yard line and came away with a grand total of 7 points on those possessions.  QB Patrick Mahomes came back to earth throwing 2 picks and 0 TD’s.  We’re positive Belichick will have a very solid defensive gameplan for Mahomes in this one.  The Patriots offense is peaking right now scoring 38 points in each of their last 2 games, they have WR Julian Edelman back in the line up, and Tom Brady should have a field day vs the 31st rank pass defense.  We simply don’t see the Patriots in this price range at home very often as they’ve been a favorite of less than 4 points only 4 times since 2010 (3-1 ATS).  They are also a fantastic 18-3 ATS at home as a favorite of less than a TD since December of 2010.  KC is playing their 4th road game already this season and this is a very dangerous spot for them.  The Pats are 93-15 SU at home since December of 2006 and with this number sitting as low as it is, the value is definitely with the Patriots.  Lay the small number with New England.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +7 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

The Rams finally had to leave the state of California last week and they almost got clipped for the first time this year.  They came from behind in the 4th quarter to beat Seattle 33-31.  IT was just their 2nd road game this season with their first being @ Oakland to open the season.  Now LA is on the road for the 2nd straight week and in altitude.  They should be catching the Broncos in an ornery mood after playing a terrible game on the road last week @ NY Jets.  The Denver defense gave up an uncharacteristic 323 yards on the GROUND to the Jets, the most by a Bronco defense since 2010.  They obviously were not physically or mentally ready for that game and we expect a huge bounce back on Sunday.  While they have struggled on the road winning just 1 of their last 12 games, Denver is a different animal at home.  They are 2-1 here this year with their only loss coming 27-23 to 5-0 Kansas City, a game that Denver led 23-13 midway through the 4th quarter.  They were +3 to +3.5 in that game vs an undefeated KC team and now they are getting a full TD here vs a comparable team.  You almost never see Denver as that type of dog at home as this is just the 4th time since 1980 they’ve been a home dog of +7 or more.  The Rams looked unbeatable early in the season vs Oakland and Arizona but those wins now don’t look quite as impressive as those teams have a combined record of just 2-8.  After their first two games vs weak competition, their defense has not looked very good giving up 23, 31, and 31 points their last 3.  Their run defense has really struggled allowing 5 YPC which is 29th in the NFL.  That’s a problem here vs a Denver rushing attack that ranks #1 in the NFL averaging 5.6 YPC.  This sets up as a dangerous game for the Rams and we’ll grab the generous points with the home team here. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Indianapolis +2 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Big mismatch at the QB position here with Luck vs Darnold.  The much better and more experienced QB is getting points which is always worth a look.  People are overreacting to the Jets crushing the Broncos last week.  It wasn’t a huge surprise as Denver has been a terrible road team under head coach Vance Joseph now losing 11 of their last 12 games away from home.  Darnold had to do very little in that game (completed just 10 passes) as the Jets ran for a ridiculous 323 yards.  It’s not as if the Jets were some terrific running team as they were averaging just 88 YPG on the ground coming into last week’s game.  Now they face an Indy defense that is allowing only 4 YPC which is 10th best in the NFL.  NY won’t run wild this week and Darnold will have more pressure to make plays on Sunday.  Let’s also not forget that the Jets had lost 3 straight games (scoring just 41 combined points in those 3 games) heading into their impressive win vs Denver.  The Colts have had 10 days to rest up and prepare for this game after losing @ New England on Thursday night.  Indy desperately needs a win here as they come in off three straight losses.  Two were down to the wire, tight games @ Philadelphia (lost 20-16) and vs Houston (lost 37-34 in OT).  The Colts have outgained 3 of their 5 opponents and their defense is actually quite solid.  They are very good at getting to the QB (3rd in sacks per game and 6th in sack percentage) so we wouldn’t be at all surprised if Darnold is rushed in to a few mistakes in this game.  Andrew Luck is a great 22-4 SU and 21-5 ATS the game following a SU & ATS loss.  He is rolling right now as well throwing for over 800 yards and 7 TD’s his last 2 games.  We like the Colts to win this game outright on Sunday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Jacksonville +3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We’re getting points with the better team here.  Much has been made of KC’s offense thus far but we expect defenses to catch up with their scheme.  We could see it on Monday night when KC went into Denver and had only 13 points with under 7:00 minutes remaining in the game.  They did score 2 TD’s late but for much of the game their offense was held in check by a pretty average Denver defense that ranks middle of the pack in most key categories.  Now they face a Jacksonville defense that ranks #2 in the NFL in efficiency, #1 in PPG allowed, #1 in YPG allowed, and #2 in yards per play allowed.  KC is on a short week after a come from behind division win on Monday night which is not a great spot for them.  While the Jags might have the best defense in the NFL, the Chiefs might have the worst.  They rank near the bottom of the NFL in many key categories including total defense, scoring defense, YPP defense, rush defense, yards per pass attempt allowed, and defensive efficiency.  The Jaguar offense has been solid with the exception of one game this year vs the Titans.  They’ve scored 31 points in 2 of their last 3 games and will put points up here vs a bad KC defense.  We rate Jacksonville with a big edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball which normally doesn’t equate to an underdog which is what we have here.  KC is overvalued right now because of their offense.  They’ve put up big numbers however all 4 of their opponents rank 20th or lower in pass defense.  They now run into a great defense in Jacksonville that ranks #1 in pass defense and a team who also has a pretty good offense.  The yards per play differential with these two teams in tells us a lot with Jacksonville at +1.3 YPP (one of the best in the NFL) and KC at -0.1 YPP.  This is one of those games a few months from now people may look back and wonder why they didn’t take advantage of Jacksonville as an underdog in this spot.  We’ll make sure we do.  Take the Jags here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore +3 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

We love looking at teams with the MUCH better defense getting points.  That’s absolutely what we have here as Baltimore has the 5th most efficient defense in the NFL right now (according to Football Outsiders) and Pittsburgh is 19th.  The Ravens are allowing just 17 PPG while the Steelers have given up 30 PPG on the season.  On top of that Baltimore is allowing 138 fewer yards per game so overall ranking 1st in the NFL on total defense so a big edge defensively for us in this one.  The Pittsburgh offense looks as if they are rolling the last 2 weeks putting up big numbers vs KC & Tampa.  However, let’s put that in perspective as those team defenses rank 31st and 32nd in total defense.  The one decent defense the Steelers played this year was Cleveland and they scored just 21 in that game.  Baltimore’s offense is looking much better than it did the last few seasons as they are already averaging 32 PPG this season.  They will absolutely be able to move the ball vs this porous Pitt defense on Sunday.  Pittsburgh is on a short week after winning Monday night at Tampa 30-27 – nearly blowing a 30-10 lead because of their poor defense.  Steelers just 3-9 ATS their last 12 games off an outright win and 12 of last 20 in this series have been decided by 3 or less.  The dog is 9-3-1 ATS last 12 meetings and we simply think Baltimore is the better team this year.  Take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 52 Points - New Orleans @ NY Giants, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

We like the value with the number here as this total has been bet all the way up to 52 after opening at 49. Vegas is forced to set the number this high as the Saints have played two games that ended with 168 total combined points. But those games came against the Falcons and Bucs who both have horrible defenses (29th and 30th in defensive efficiency) and good offenses (TB 5th, ATL 12th in offensive efficiency). That produced to VERY high scoring games with the Saints. In their other game against the Browns (similar to the Giants) they totaled just 39 points. What's important to note here is that the Saints defense has some ugly statistics this season, but again, consider they've played two really bad defenses and padded those numbers. The same can be said about their offense. The Giants meanwhile have played two of three low scoring affairs with totals of 35, 33 and 49 points. In their game in Houston last week the Giants and Texans had just 35 total points with 2 minutes to play before two late garbage TD's by the Texans (1 came with 1 second left). The Giants are allowing just 20.7PPG and have the 9th best yards per point defense in the NFL. You have to go back a few years to find a Giants game with a total set this high which tells us enough. New York is 27th in the NFL in pace of play while the Saints are 21st. In the last seven meetings in the Big Apple the Under has cashed 5 times. Bet UNDER!

ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland -2.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

If Jon Gruden doesn't win this game he might just get run out of Oakland along with his 100 million dollar contract! The Raiders have played well this year but haven't cracked the win column yet, that changes today. Oakland has outgained the Rams and Dolphins and were barely outgained by 12 yards in Denver but are still 0-3. The Raiders have the 11th best offensive efficiency rating in the NFL this year and that's going against a solid group of defenses. Oakland's defensive efficiency is skewed as they've faced two top 8 offenses this year and Denver who is 15th. What we're saying is this, the Raiders are far better than their record indicates and are only laying a field goal or less in this contest. Cleveland comes into this game with their first win since 2016 as they beat the Jets. Really, a win over a bad Jets team with another rookie QB makes this team even on a neutral field against the Raiders? The Browns have lost 22 straight road losses and have their own rookie QB making his first start ever on the road. Cleveland's offense is one of the worst in the league at 30th in OEFF and 20 points (average) isn't going to be enough to keep pace with the Raiders who are 6th in the league in total yards per game (400ypg).  The Browns last 16 road losses have come by an average of 11.5PPG! Need we say more. Play the Raiders. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +7.5 over LA Rams, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

The Vikings are now backed into a corner having lost last week to Buffalo and tied the week before vs Green Bay.  This is a much bigger game for Minnesota coming in with a 1-1-1 record.  The Vikes come into this one angry after a complete no-show last week at home vs Buffalo.  They became the first team since 1995 to lose outright as a 16-point or higher favorite.  A letdown was expected from Minnesota after an overtime tie with Green Bay a week earlier and this game with the Rams on deck.  The yardage vs Buffalo was dead even but Minny had 3 turnovers while the Bills didn’t turn the ball over.  Buffalo jumped out to a 24-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter which took Minnesota completely out of their offensive game plan.  They only ran the ball 6 times while attempting 55 passes.  The Rams are obviously very good but we feel they come in a bit overvalued after winning each of their first 3 games by double digits.  Remember two of those wins were against Oakland and Arizona who have combined to go 0-6.  The look ahead line on this game before the season began was the Rams -3.  Now we’re getting a full TD with one of the top teams in the NFL coming off an embarrassing loss.  They’re facing the Rams with both starting CB’s out and on top of that, Viking head coach Mike Zimmer is 11-2 ATS when off a loss and facing a non-NFC North foe.  Take the points here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore -10 over Denver, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

The Broncos are easily the weakest 2-0 team in the NFL.  Their two wins have come against Seattle & Oakland by a combined 4 points.  Those two teams have yet to win a game and BOTH led Denver in the 4th quarter before the Broncos rallied for a tight win.  Now Denver has to travel to the east coast in their first road game of the year and they are a team that is 1-9 SU their last 10 road games.  Denver’s once vaunted defense looks like they have lost their luster.  Especially vs the pass where Oakland’s David Carr lit them up last week for 288 yards completing 29 of his 32 attempts.  A week earlier Russell Wilson threw for 298 yards and 3 TD’s on this Denver defense.  Now they face Joe Flacco who has thrown for 620 yards and 5 TD’s in his two games.  Expect a big day from him.  The Ravens are off a Thursday night loss @ Cincinnati so they have had extra time to get ready for this home game.  They actually outgained the Bengals in that game and despite their 1-1 record Baltimore is +268 in total yardage on the year.   Since 2003, undefeated teams that are underdogs of more than three points on the road are just 36-52-2 ATS (41%) against the spread.  Baltimore by a TD or more in this one.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 41.5 Points - NY Giants @ Dalllas, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

Because of the way these two offenses performed in week 1, we’re getting some solid value on the OVER here.  The total opened 43.5 and has dropped ever since and we’re now jumping on the OVER.  Last week Dallas scored only 8 points and the NY Giants put up just 15.  While neither team lit it up yardage wise, both moved the ball enough to score more than what they did a week ago.  Also keep in mind both were facing top 10 defenses from a year ago (Jacksonville & Carolina) so the struggles weren’t completely surprising.  We expect the Giants to have a much better offense this year despite what happened last week.  They have shored up their offensive line and they have added more weapons including RB Saquon Barkley.  They also have WR Odell Beckham back at full strength and with him in the line-up last year they averaged 23 PPG compared to 13 PPG when he was not available.  Dallas didn’t look as good offensively as the Giants but they have potential with one of the top RB’s in the league along with a solid QB in Dak Prescott.  We’re pretty sure both teams stressed offensive performance and finishing drives in practice this week so expect a better performance from each.  If this total stays at 42 or less, it will be the lowest total set on this rivalry since 2005.  They’ve simply adjusted this one too much and we take the OVER.    

ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points - Oakland @ Denver, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

Denver put up 27 points last week on Seattle which may look impressive but the Seahawks defense is nowhere near what it used to be.  We anticipate Seattle’s defense, who lost 5 former pro-bowlers off last year’s defense alone, to be in the lower third of the league.  We took advantage of that last week using the OVER in Seattle – Denver and cashed in.  That was set at 42 and this week it’s 45 or 45.5 in this game.  Despite giving up 33 points last week to the Rams, the Oakland defense was fairly impressive in our minds.  They held one of, if not the best, offense to just 98 yards and 10 points in the first half.  For the game the Rams only had 365 yards and 26 points if you take away the late pick 6 LA had.  So not bad at all for the Raider defense.  Denver’s defense was solid last week allowing Seattle only 306 total yards.  The Broncos were the top total defense in the NFL last year allowing 290 YPG and we expect them to be near the top again this year.  Neither of these offenses is overly dynamic and both teams know each other very well being a division match up.  5 of the last 6 in this series have gone UNDER the total and Oakland had now gone UNDER in 8 straight games dating back to last year.  We anticipate a defensive grinder here and we’re on the UNDER.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 42 Points - Seattle @ Denver, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

The Seahawks were long known as one of the top defenses on the NFL and they look like they are still living off those laurels as this total is set too low.  Seattle has lost a ton of defensive talent over the last few years including 5 former pro bowlers off last year’s team alone (Chancellor, Sherman, Avril, Bennett, and Richardson).  Last year they finished outside the top 10 in total defense for the first time since 2010 and we look for a further drop this year minus those players.  We project the Seattle defense to finish in the bottom half of the league this season.  The Denver defense also fell off drastically last year after allowing 18 PPG in 2016 the allowed 24 PPG a year ago.  So both defenses a bit overrated entering the season in our minds.  Offensively Denver should improve greatly with new QB Case Keenum who is a big upgrade over the Bronco QB’s last year (Siemian, Osweiler, and Lynch).  He has some very good weapons at wideout and TE so we look for an improvement on last year’s 21 PPG.  Seattle averaged 23 PPG last year and with Russell Wilson at QB they are always a threat to put up big numbers.  They scored over 20 points in 10 of their 16 games last year and we have a feeling with their defense taking a big step back Seattle will have to be aggressive offensive to try and outscore people this year. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Dallas +3 over Carolina, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

The Carolina Panthers made some changes in the offseason and we’re not sure they were good ones. After ranking 24th in offensive efficiency in 2016, then moving up to 9th, the Panthers decided to bring in a new offensive coordinator? Carolina recycled longtime NFL coach Norv Turner but has the game evolved into something he’s not? Looking back we see Norv Turner’s last two offensive units in Minnesota ranked 25th or worse in total yards per game and before that his Browns offense finished 18th. The last year he was with the Chargers they were 31st. Last year the Panthers were 16th in total yards per game (average) and 9th in OEFF. We really don’t think this will be a good fit for QB Cam Newton either. The Panthers had a positive point differential last year at +1.8PPG. The Panthers defense was very good again last year finishing with our 9th ranked defensive efficiency unit while allowing just 21PPG. In the late stages of last season though this defensive unit faltered a little allowing 25.4PPG in their last seven contests. Dallas had a down season a year ago and a lot of that had to do with injuries and suspensions. The Cowboys were slightly better than the Panthers in total yards per game and 10th in OEFF. That was without RB Elliott for the first four games of the season. The Boys finished last season strong with wins in 3 of four games, scoring 30+ in two of those. In terms of DEFF the Cowboys ranked a poor 25th but also only allowed 20.1PPG which was top 10. Dallas is on a 6-1 ATS run on the road and we like a close game throughout.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 39 Points - Minnesota @ Philadelphia, Sunday at 6:40 PM ET

This is a low number (currently 39 as we post this) but it is definitely warranted.  These two defenses have been stellar all season.  The Vikings rank 1st in total defense while Philly ranks 4th.  They rank 1st and 2nd in rush defense.  These two defenses are very good at getting opposing offenses off the field which keeps points off the board.  Minnesota allows an opponent success rate of just 25% on 3rd down which is the best number in that category since the 1975 season!  Philadelphia ranks 3rd in the NFL in that stat allowing just a 32% success rate on 3rd down.  The Eagle offense has dropped off considerably since the injury to Carson Wentz.  They were averaging 391 YPG but have tailed off to just 278 YPG with Foles at QB.  They have scored just 34 points in their last 3 games combined.  The Minnesota offense has been better at home this year putting up 390 YPG to just 328 on the road.  The Viking defense has allowed only FIVE of their 17 opponents this year to reach 20 points.  Philadelphia’s defense is allowing only 13 PPG at home this year and they have allowed only 12 total TD’s at home in 9 games.  This looks like a defensive/field position battle and we grab the UNDER.

ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -7 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET

This line has dropped from 9.5 down to -7 with concerns of Tom Brady’s throwing hand which was banged up in practice earlier this week.  Brady was seen practicing and throwing with a glove on his hand late in the week.  We all know the Pats and Belichick are very good at throwing out this type of stuff leading into big games and while we don’t necessarily want to say this is a hoax as Brady may have banged his hand in practice, we’ll guess it’s not all that serious and he’ll be fine.  With that being said, we like the Pats here.  While Jacksonville won a huge game @ Pittsburgh last week, let’s remember the Steelers were their own worst enemy AGAIN!  The Steelers outgained the Jags by 170 yards but had 2 turnovers (including a fumble returned for a TD) and were stopped twice in Jacksonville territory on 4th and short situations.  While we did like Pittsburgh last week, they are not well coached in our opinion and have a tendency to play great some games and sort of get in their own way in others.  New England doesn’t do that.  They will not “give” the game away to Jacksonville by gifting them with mistakes as Pitt did in both games vs the Jags.  The Patriots have a huge experience edge in this situations as well as a massive coaching edge.  This is their 7th consecutive AFC Championship game while Jacksonville last appeared in this game way back in 1999 (two years after we opened our doors as ASA Inc)!  The Patriots have a big edge offensively and a Grand Canyon sized edge at QB.  While the Jags are very good defensively, let’s not forget that the Patriot defense has given up fewer points than any other team in the NFL since week 5.  The Jags pass defense ranks #1 in the NFL but they have faced only 3 QB’s all season long ranked in the top 10 in QBR and two of those teams lit them up pretty good.  Situationally, the Jags are coming off possibly their biggest win in franchise history and they are on the road again this week.  This is actually their 4th road game in the last 5 week.  They scored 45 points in their win last week which is a terrible omen as teams they score 40 or more points in a playoff win are a terrible 4-25 ATS their following game!  Let’s also not forget this Jacksonville offense has scored only 10 points in each of their previous two games vs Buffalo and Tennessee leading into last week’s win.  Brady has started in 21 home playoff games and he’s won 18 of them.  He’s also covered 65% of his home playoff games.  We think the Jags will hang around for awhile  the Pats, who’ve outscored their opponents 80-25 in the 2nd half of their last 4 playoffs games, will pull away and pick up a double digit win.

ASA PLAY ON: Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday 1PM ET - Let's start with the value here and the pointspread. Earlier this season Pittsburgh was favored by the same number as they are here but now the Steelers are rested off a bye week, playing with revenge and catch a Jags team trending down. Jacksonville closed the season with losses at San Francisco(6-10) and at Tennessee before a close home win over the Bills last weekend in the Wildcard. The Jaguars offense has not looked good the past two weeks with just 230 total yards last week against a Buffalo defense that was league average by our metrics. Jags QB Blake Bortles threw for just 87 yards last weekend after throwing for just 158 yards and 2 INT's the week before against the Titans. Bortles has had a QB rating of 76 or lower his last three starts and has thrown 5 INT's to just 3 TD's in that same span. The Steelers pass defense was outstanding to start the season with cornerback Joe Haden but slipped to below league average without him their final five games. Haden is back here which impacts the Steelers rush defense as they can add a player to the box to stop the run. Pittsburgh will be at full strength offensively here with WR Brown back in the lineup after a calf injury. The Steelers were 6-2 SU at home this year with impressive wins over Minnesota and a surging Ravens team at the end of the season. Pittsburgh's margin of victory in those 6 home wins was 11PPG. One of the Steelers homes losses came to this same Jacksonville team and it was one of Big Ben's worst games in his career. Roethlisberger was picked off 5 times, two of which were returned for TD's. The Steelers outgained the Jags by 58 yards yet lost by 21-points. The Jags need to run the football which will be difficult versus a Steelers stop-unit that allows just 105 rushing yards per game which is 10th in the NFL. What makes that number more meaningful is the fact that the Steelers faced 6 rushing offenses that were 11th or better in the NFL this season. Jacksonville was great against the pass this season but horrendous against the run so  expect a heavy dose of Steelers RB Bell here. Pittsburgh QB Roethlisberger is 6-1 ATS his last seven home playoff games. The nail in the coffin here is the fact the Jags played the second easiest schedule this season and their true colors started to show late in the season when games mattered. Now in this situation they get manhandled by a rested, motivated Steelers team at home. Lay it!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia +3 over Atlanta, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET

This is the first time EVER that a #1 seed has been an underdog at home in the playoffs.  You think Philly will be extra motivated for this one knowing they aren’t expected to even win the game?  We do.  Now of course Nick Foles isn’t Carson Wentz but he is at least an experienced back up that has had some really solid numbers in his career including his 27 TD and 2 interception season a few years ago for the Eagles.  Foles won 2 of the 3 games he started in place of Wentz with his only loss coming to end the season in a meaningless game vs Dallas as the Eagles had already locked up the #1 seed.  Now we get this team rested up, with extra motivation at home where their only loss this year was in that meaningless season ender.  Atlanta will be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks and was on the west coast upsetting the Rams last week.  Speaking of that upset, teams that win outright as an underdog in the wildcard round are just 21-37 ATS (12-46 SU which applies here as Atlanta is the favorite) in the Division round.  Atlanta’s offense is nowhere near as potent as they were last season putting up nearly 1,000 fewer yards and 27 fewer TD’s than last season.  They will run into a brick wall here as the Eagle defense is really good ranking 4th in the NFL in both total defense and scoring defense.  The Philly defense allowed only 13 PPG at home this year allowing only 11 TD’s the entire season at home.  If Atlanta doesn’t get to 20 points, which we don’t think they will, they are in trouble.  That because this Falcon team is 0-6 SU this season when they don’t reach 20 points.  Weather will also benefit the Eagles here as the temperature is expected to be 21 degrees with the windchill.  Atlanta is obviously a dome team and they haven’t played in a game this year with the temp below 40 degrees.  The Birds haven’t won a game with the temp below 40 degrees since the 2009 season.  Home underdogs in the NFL playoffs are 26-13-2 ATS since 1980 and we have a feeling that Philly wins this game and hosts the NFC Championship game next week.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Jacksonville -9 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We’ve been anti Buffalo for much of the year and feel they are absolutely not worthy of being a playoff team.  They were outgained in 13 of their 16 games this year which led to their -53 YPG yard differential on the year.  Last week they went to Miami and won a tight game 22-16 and they were outgained by a Dolphin offense that played David Fales at QB who hadn’t thrown a pass all season long and had only 2 career completions.  We were on the Fins in that game and are very confident that if Jay Cutler would have played the entire game (he played only 1 series) the Bills wouldn’t even be in the playoffs right now.  The Bills also have a -57 point differential on the season which is the worst by far of the 12 playoff teams.  In fact, there are 20 teams in the NFL that have a better point differential than Buffalo.  The only other team in the post-season with a negative point differential is Tennessee at -22.  By comparison, Jacksonville checks in with a point differential of +149 which is 2nd in the AFC behind New England only.  The Jags clinched the AFC South a few weeks ago and are coming off back to back losses in meaningless games.  We actually like the fact they’ve lost a few in a row entering this contest giving them a little extra motivation here.  Jacksonville’s defense is fantastic ranking 2nd in the NFL behind Minnesota allowing just 286 YPG.  That will be a problem here for a Buffalo team that is not very explosive (22nd in PPG scored & 29th in total offense) and might be without their top offensive weapon LeSean McCoy which would be a huge loss.  McCoy accounts for 33% of the Bills offense which is 2nd most in the NFL by any player (behind only Gurley of the Rams).  Also keep in mind that Buffalo put up those poor offensive numbers this season despite playing only 3 games all season vs defenses that ended the year in the top 10 in total defense.  The Jacksonville offense is surprisingly good this year ranking 5th in the NFL in scoring and they’ve put up at least 30 points in 4 of their last 5 games entering the playoffs.  They will be able to run with Leonard Fournette facing a Buffalo defense that ranks 29th in the NFL at stopping the run.  That takes some pressure off Jacksonville QB Bortles who is much better when he doesn’t have to carry the load offensively.  Buffalo, on the flip side, will have problems running the ball in this game without McCoy.  Even if he plays he is not close to 100%.  That leaves Buffalo’s running game with Mike Tolbert and Marcus Murphy who was recently brought up from the practice squad.  We know the Bills struggle to pass ranking 2nd to last in the NFL in that category and they’ll be facing the #1 pass defense in the NFL in this game.  If Buffalo’s ground game struggles, which it will, they are in big trouble here on offense.  Their defense isn’t good enough to shut down Jacksonville and we see the Jaguars winning this game by 10+ points. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 44.5 Points - Tennessee @ Kansas City, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET

We view this Tennessee offense as one of the worst in the Playoffs along with Buffalo.  They aren’t a high powered unit scoring 20 PPG which ranks them 19th in the NFL.  They also are the worst 3rd down percentage team in the playoffs at 35% (25th in the NFL) which means they struggle to keep drives alive which means fewer points.  They are a poor passing team averaging just 199 YPG and Mariota is very inconsistent.  They can run the ball OK and we expect them to do that here vs a poor Chiefs run defense that allows 119 YPG rushing.  That means not a lot of big plays in the passing game from Tennessee and run game that will eat clock.  This Titan offense topped 20 points only ONCE over their final 7 road games this season.  The KC offense struggles in the red zone scoring TD’s just 42% of the time which ranks them 29th in the NFL.  The Titan defense is in the top 10 when it comes to allowing opponents to score TD’s in the red zone to KC should struggle finding the endzone here.  Both teams are slower paced offenses with KC ranking 30th in pace averaging one snap every 29 seconds while Tennessee ranks 26th in the same category averaging a snap every 28.5 seconds.  The Chiefs have been a VERY strong UNDER team at home with a record of 47-24-2 to the UNDER in Arrowhead since 2009.  They didn’t have a single home game reach 50 points this season and they averaged just 40.8 total points at home this season.  These two met last year in December here @ Arrowhead Stadium and the final score was 19-17 in favor of the Titans.  We see a similar offensive output here.  Take the UNDER.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami +3 over Buffalo, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

These two played just 2 weeks ago and Buffalo was favored by 3.5 at home.  The Bills won that game 24-16 but the yardage was nearly even.  Now they are favored by nearly the same number on the road giving us very good value with Miami in this game.  Buffalo is one of those teams that “has to” win which is why the line is set where it is.  The fact is, the teams that have to win don’t always win.  Especially with a team that isn’t all that great to begin with.  Buffalo is a team that really shouldn’t be sitting the position they are.  The Bills sit with an 8-7 record, however they’ve been outgained by 53 YPG on the season and they have a -63 point differential.  They have outgained only 3 of their 15 opponents this season!  The only time they’ve been favored on the road this year was @ NY Jets and they lost that game by 13 points.  That makes Buffalo 1-5 ATS the last 6 times they’ve been favored on the road dating back to 2014.  They are also just 8-15 SU their last 23 trips to Miami.  The Fins have played well at home down the stretch beating both New England and Denver as home underdogs in their last 2 here.  We look for Miami to play hard at home and close out the season with an outright win.  Take the points. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 43 Points - Green Bay @ Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Both these teams had stinkers offensively last week and we expect a bounce back on that side of the ball on Sunday.  Green Bay was shutout at home by one of the top defenses in the NFL (Minnesota).  Detroit scored just 17 points in a loss @ Cincinnati which took them out of the playoff race.  The Packers with Hundley at QB have been much better on the road averaging 25 PPG compared to just 13 at home.  They’ve done so against some very solid defenses scoring 24 @ Carolina, 28 @ Pittsburgh, and 23 @ Chicago.  They now face a Detroit defense that ranks 27th in the NFL in total defense.  Look for Green Bay’s offense to play well.  Same with Detroit.  Head coach Jim Caldwell said he has no plans to sit starters here and that includes QB Matt Stafford.  The Lions put up 30 points @ Green Bay in November and we see them putting up similar numbers here vs a poor Packer defense that ranks 22nd in the NFL.  Two teams that are out of the playoffs, two teams with poor defenses, and perfect conditions in the dome in Detroit lead to a high scoring game.  Take the OVER in this one.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 45.5 Points - Pittsburgh @ Tennessee, Monday at 4:30 PM ET

The Pitt defense has struggled a bit over the last month but they still rank 7th in the NFL in PPG allowed at just 19.9.  They are 4th in the NFL in total defense giving up just 307 YPG.  We expect them to play very well on that side of the ball facing a Houston offense that is simply not good.  The Texans have scored 7, 16, 13, and 16 points over their last 4 games.  Their overall season stats on offense are skewed because they were good when DeShaun Watson was in at QB and they are not when he hasn’t played.  In games where Watson was the starting QB the Texans averaged 39 PPG.  In 9 games without him under center they put up just 13.7 PPG and have topped 16 points only ONCE!  They will struggle on offense again here with their 3rd stringer TJ Yates starting again after putting up 7 points and 186 total yards last week.  Pitt’s offense can be dynamic at times but they do often play to the level of their competition.  They are also a drastically different offense on the road and playing without WR Antonio Brown in this game.  The Steelers have gone UNDER the total in every road game this season and are 19-4-1 to the UNDER their last 24 games away from home.  They are averaging just 20.8 PPG on the road this year and facing a Houston defense that we feel will be ready to put in a very solid effort after allowing 45 points last week.  If Pitt gets a decent lead we would look for them to run the ball, milk clock, and simply get out of dodge with a win.  Both offenses struggle here and we like the UNDER.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle +5 over Dallas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - ASA's NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

The betting markets are on the Cowboys here after a blowout loss by the Seahawks last week, and the return of RB Elliott for Dallas. But in reality it's the exact opposite here as the value is on the Hawks plus the points. The Seahawks lost by 35 points last week. NFL teams that were embarrassed the previous week and coming off losses of five TDs or more have some incredible technical support. Since 2003 those teams (off a 5 TD loss) are 55-31 ATS (64%), 44-23 ATS as a dog in that situation and 38-15 ATS as a pooch of 3-points or more.  Seattle already has 4 quality road wins this season and will have a QB/coaching advantage in this do-or-die game for both teams. Yes, Zeke is back but Seattle still has a respectable rush defense and the Cowboys will be without their starting left tackle. Dallas has already 4 home losses this year, and even though Seattle has some injury issues, they still have some key efficiency advantages over the Boys. The Dog has covered 4 straight in this series and Seattle is on a 10-3 ATS run when coming off a loss. Grab the points.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 43 Points - Jacksonville @ San Francisco, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

We like the value with the number here and expect an ‘average’ or better NFL scoring game here (44.4PPG). The Niners with their new QB Jimmy G and head coach Shannahan are starting to click on offense with 25 and 26 points in their last two games. Last Sunday the 49ers score wasn’t indicative of their total yards as they should have scored 34 or more points based on their 410 total yards of offense. San Francisco continues to open the playbook and will continue to build their offense for next season. Yes, they face a Jags defense that is ranked as one of the best in the NFL, but are they? In their 14 games this season the Jaguars have squared off against just 3 offenses that rank in the top half of the NFL in efficiency stats. One of those games the Steelers scored just 9 points, but Pittsburgh had put up 370 yards of offense and Big Ben threw 5 INT’s. The other two games the Jags played against good offenses were at home. When everyone talks about Jacksonville they talk defense, but did you know they are 5th in the NFL in scoring, 6th in total yards per game and have scored 30+ in three straight games. The Jags are going up against a bottom 10 defensive team in the 49ers in terms of points allowed and total yards allowed. These two teams get to 45+ here!

ASA PLAY ON 10* New Orleans -5.5 over Atlanta, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE YEAR

Quick revenge here for the Saints after losing @ Atlanta 20-17 on December 7th, a game New Orleans led 17-10 in the 4th quarter.  It was just the 2nd time in the last 10 games where the Saints have been outgained in a game and that was by only 37 yards.  The New Orleans offense took a huge hit early in that game when star RB Kamara left the game with a concussion.  He was back on the field last week in the Saints 31-19 win over the Jets so he’s ready to go here.  We know New Orleans has a great offense leading the NFL at 401 YPG and 6.4 YPP, however the defense has been carrying this team holding opponents to 21 points or less in 7 of their last 9 games.  This defense held Atlanta to 20 points on just 5 YPP in their meeting a few weeks ago and now the Falcons top offensive weapon, WR Julio Jones, hasn’t practiced this week due to an injury.  He may play but won’t be at 100%.  In their most recent “step up” division game at home a few weeks ago the Saints dominated the Panthers winning 31-21 and outgained Carolina by 120 yards.  We see a similar scenario unfolding here.  9 of the Saints 10 wins this season have been by 8 points or more.  On the flip side, Atlanta has 9 wins with 6 of those wins coming by 6 points or fewer (one possession type games).  We rate New Orleans better on both sides of the ball and they have a great home field advantage going 6-1 here this year with their only loss being their home opener vs the Patriots.  Lay it win the Saints.

PLAY UNDER 41 Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers, Saturday 8:30PM ET - We expect a lower scoring game between these two NFC North rivals, especially with Packers QB Rodgers on the shelf. In the first meeting of the season the Vikings essentially ended A-Rodg's season in a 23-10 'under' win. The Vikings have the 3rd best defense in DVOA rankings, allow just 4.7 yards per play (3rd) and give up only 17.3PPG on the season. Since Aaron Rodgers went out the Packers offense has managed just 18PPG (in regulation) and have scored 17 or less points in 4 of those nine games. We feel tonight's game will be eerily similar to the Packers versus Ravens game which ended 23-0. Minnesota is looking to just win this game and get out of Green Bay without injuries. That means a heavy dose of the running game (3rd in the NFL w/30 attempts per game) and less clock stoppage. Also factor in that Vikings QB Case Keenum has NEVER played in a game this cold and won't be making any big plays against an average Packers defense. The Under is now 5-1 the last six meetings. BET UNDER!

PLAY OVER Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:30PM ET - This series has been high scoring of late with three straight OVER dating back to the start of last season. In those three games they've combined for 55, 71 and 54 total points. Just as important as the final scores is the yardage these two teams have amassed in those three games too. In the first meeting last season these two clubs racked up 740 total yards, in the second meeting of 2016 they put up 860 total yards. In the clash on Nov 26th of this season they put up 890 total yards. In other words both teams are going to move the ball offensively which will translate to a ton of points. The Bucs defense isn't going to stop the Falcons as they have the 31st worst passing defense in the NFL and are 22nd against the run.  Tampa Bay should do some scoring of their own too as they have the 5th fastest paced offense in the NFL and let's face it the Falcons defense isn't great. Atlanta ranks 17th against the pass this season and 31st against the run. Both teams are in the bottom 11 in the NFL in defensive yards per point. Both teams rank in the top half of the league in total offense and considering this number is sitting just a few points above average we'll bet OVER!

ASA PLAY ON 10* San Francisco 49ers (-1) over Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We faded this overrated Tennessee team last week and cashed in and we’ll do it again here.  The Titans are the most overrated team in the league.  They are 8-5 on the year but have been outgained and outscored on the season.  Last week @ Arizona they lost 12-7 and the offense stunk again.  The Titans put up barely 200 yards of total offense and QB Mariota was bad again throwing 2 interceptions.  The Titans are 3-4 on the road this year and Mariota has thrown just 3 TD’s to go along with 11 picks away from home on the season.  This is also their 4th road game in 5 weeks and they have already lost @ Miami and @ Arizona and squeaked by @ Indy and in OT @ Cleveland.  This Niner franchise now has some life with Jimmy Garoppolo at QB.  They have won back to back road games @ Chicago and @ Houston and they outgained those two teams by a combined 350 yards.  Garoppolo has thrown for over 600 yards in those two games.  Now they are back at home and confident.  The SF defense has been solid vs the rush this year allowing 3.9 YPC which is 7th in the NFL and if you can slow down Tennessee’s rushing attack you have them right where you want them.  That forces Mariota to carry the load and he hasn’t been able to do that this season.  Things that make you go hmmm…There is a reason the 3-10 team is a favorite over the 8-5 team.  The Niners are the better team right now and we’ll take them at home.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 39 Points - Miami @ Buffalo, Sunday a 1:00 PM ET

This number is set too low in our opinion.  Most likely an overreaction to the Indy – Buffalo game last weekend that ended 13-7 but was played in blizzard like conditions.  This week the weather looks fine with temps in the 20’s but very little wind which is key.  Also no precipitation in the forecast.  It may also be set too low based on a Miami defense that shut down New England on Monday Night holding the Pats to 20 points.  However, that effort does not a great defense make.  If you look back at the recent performance of the Miami defense it’s been very poor.  Throw out their game vs Denver as the Broncos can’t score on anyone right now, and this defense has allowed 35, 30, 45, 27, 40 and 28 points in their previous 6 leading into their games vs Denver and New England.  Buffalo’s offense hasn’t put up a ton of points recently but they’ve been facing solid defenses over the last 5 weeks with the exception of Indy and again that was played in a blizzard.  Tyrod Taylor gets the start here and we expect the Bills to look much better offensively.  Miami is simply a better offense with Cutler at the helm.  They’ve now scored 20 or more in 7 of their last 9 games.  The Fins put up 27 on a New England defense last Monday that hadn’t allowed any of their previous 8 opponents to top 17 points.  This AFC East rivalry has been high scoring as of late with the last 4 games totaling 65, 53, 50, and 55 points.  These two have not had a total set in the 30’s since the 2010 season.  We take the OVER here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 46.5 Points - LA Chargers @ Kansas City, Saturday at 8:25 PM ET - AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR

This one is essentially a battle for the AFC West Division Title.  They are tied atop the division with 7-6 records.  KC won the first game @ LA so a win here by the Chiefs would all but lock up the division.  A Charger win would make the last two weeks very interesting.  These teams know each other very well and this will be a playoff atmosphere.  We think that favors the defenses.  The Charger defense has been simply lights out as of late.  Over their last 9 games this defense has allowed just 14 PPG.  Because of that defense, the Chargers have stayed UNDER the total in 7 of their last 8 games.  The KC defense has been up and down this season but at home, they’ve been very solid allowing just 18 PPG.  They have not allowed a single opponent to top 20 points this year here at Arrowhead Stadium.  Offensively, the Chiefs have gone in the tank during their 8 game freefall in which they have a 2-6 record.  If you take out their two games vs Oakland, who ranks 32nd in defensive efficiency, this KC offense has averaged just 18 PPG over their 8 game swoon.  Taking KC UNDER at home has been a definite money maker.  They are 45-24-2 to the UNDER in home games since 2009.  That’s the highest percentage of UNDERS for a home team in the NFL during that stretch.  These two put up just 34 points in their first meeting (24-10 Chiefs win) with neither team topping 330 total yards.  14 of the last 20 meetings between these two here in Kansas City have failed to top 45 points.  We like the UNDER.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 44 Points - Chicago @ Detroit, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - NFC North Total of the Month

These two met in Chicago back in October and the Lions won 27-24 totaling 51 points.  It could have been worse as the two combined for 38 in the first half alone before slowing down to just 13 in the 2nd stanza.  Both offenses were on point with the Bears rolling up 398 yards including 222 on the ground.  The Lions put up 352 yards with 299 coming from Stafford through the air.  That was really Chicago’s best offensive performance since Trubisky took over at QB.  That was until last week when the Bears put up 33 points and Trubisky had 271 yards passing on a very solid Cincy defense.  Facing a Detroit defense that ranks 27th in total defense and YPP defense, we expect the Chicago offense to look good again for the 2nd straight week.  Detroit topped Tampa 24-21 last week but the Lions rolled offensively with over 430 yards of total offense so their scoring numbers (24) probably should have been even higher.  They rank 5th in the NFL at 26 PPG and the Lions have scored at least 20 points in every game but 2 this year and those games were against two of the top defenses in the NFL (Minnesota & Pittsburgh).  At home in the controlled climate they have been even better scoring at least 20 points in 11 of their last 13 dating back to last season.  Detroit will score here and Chicago looks like they’ve turned the corner offensively and had earlier success vs this defense as well.  8 of the last 11 meetings between these two here in Detroit have reached at least 44 points.  This one does as well.  Take the OVER.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Arizona +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

The Titans just might be the most overrated team in the NFL.  They are 8-4 yet have been outscored AND outgained on the season.  Last week at home they got down 10-0 to a struggling Houston team and though they fought back to take the lead, the Texans were driving late for the winning score and threw a pick.  Tennessee, with under 1:00 minute left and running out the clock, picked up a late covering 75 yard TD run to win 24-13.  A very deceiving final score.  The Titans have been outscored by 65 points in their last 5 road games with their only wins coming @ Cleveland 12-9 in OT and @ Indy 20-16.  QB Marcus Mariota has struggled all season but especially on the road where he has thrown only 3 TD passes to go along with 9 interceptions.  Because of Mariota’s struggles the Titans really need their running game to thrive in order for their offense to have a chance.  That will be tough here as the Cards rank 9th overall in rush defense allowing 99 YPG and 6th in YPC defense (3.7).  Arizona is off a home loss to the Rams but the Cards had more yardage in that game.  A week earlier they beat a very good Jacksonville team here.  This will be Arizona’s third straight home game while Tennessee is playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks.  While the Cards have a 5-7 record and Titans are 8-4, the seasonal yardage numbers for these two teams are almost identical (Tennessee minus 4 YPG on the season / Arizona minus 2 YPG on the season).  Arizona is 21-11-1 ATS (65%) as a home underdog since the start of the 2007 season.  We like Arizona to win this game outright and we’ll gladly take the points here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Atlanta +2 over New Orleans, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET

Falcons have to win this game after losing here vs Minnesota last Sunday 14-9.  Interestingly, the Birds were favored by 2 or 3 vs Minnesota and now vs Saints just 4 days later they are +2.  Value with Atlanta here.  The Falcons are on the fringe of the wild card and 2 full games behind the Saints in the NFC South.  New Orleans is off a huge home win over Carolina which has them sitting great in the NFC South with basically a 2 game lead over both Carolina & Atlanta as they now own the tie breaker over the Panthers.  After being held to just 9 points and under 300 total yards vs what we feel is the best defense in the NFL, we look for the Falcons to play MUCH better offensively in this one.  They have topped 30 points in 4 of their last 6 meetings with New Orleans.  Also the Saints defense, which looked really good through the middle of their schedule but did so facing a number of poor offenses (Chicago, Buffalo, Miami, TB, and Green Bay – without Rodgers) has now come back to earth a bit.  They have allowed 31, 26, and 21 points their last 3.  The Falcon offense will rebound here and we like the way this Atlanta defense is playing right now allowing 20 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games.  Atlanta continues to be the best statistical team in the NFL with a yards per play differential of +1.0 which is tops in the league.  The underdog is 13-3 ATS in this rivalry and the Falcons have covered 13 of their last 17 when getting points at home.  Just an absolute must win for a solid home team and we’ll take the Birds.

ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 43.5 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals, 8:30PM ET - In this big rivalry game we expect the defenses to dominate and predict a lower scoring game. Earlier when these two teams squared off the number Vegas put up was 40 and they combined for 43 points as the Steelers won 29-14. The Bengals offense was stymied by the Steelers defense all game long, managing just 179 yards of total offense (league average 335YPG).  Pittsburgh gave the Bengals a heavy dose of RB Bell in that game who rushed 35 times for 134 yards and there's no reason to expect a different game plan here, especially with WR Brown potentially not playing.  The Steelers rank 7th in total yards per game but are 12th in scoring which tells us they move the ball well between the 20's but it doesn't translate to TD's. In fact, Pittsburgh is 26th in the NFL in red zone TD percentage offense at 46.51%. Despite a poor overall record the Bengals defense has been quite good this year if you look inside the numbers. Cincinnati, is 14th overall in yards allowed per game but 10th in points allowed at just 19.5PPG. The Bengals offense is the worst in the NFL when it comes to yards per game at just 274.3YPG and 25th in scoring at 18.1PPG. Pittsburgh is 4th in the league in points allowed per game at 17.5PPG, 3rd in yards allowed per game at 289.4YPG. Historically speaking, 3 of the last four meetings have all stayed below the number. Pittsburgh's road games this year have resulted in 37, 35, 32, 35, 40 and 39 total points as a result of them being the dominate team and dictating much of the tempo. Play low scoring close games and win away from home! BET HERE IS UNDER!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 46 points - Philadelphia @ Seattle, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET

We see this game playing out very similar to the Seahawks most recent home game which was a 34-31 loss to Atlanta.  The Seahawks defense is a shell of what it used to be with key injuries in the defensive backfield.  We don’t expect them to slow down an Eagle offense that has put up more than 30 points in 6 of their last 7 games and the one time they didn’t top 30 during that stretch they scored 28 on a Carolina defense that currently ranks 2nd in the NFL.  Seattle is the type of team that can play in a grinder game vs poor offenses like Arizona & San Francisco and win a low scoring type game.  However, when they play a high scoring type offense, this team seems to change their tune.  They know they must keep up on the scoreboard and Russell Wilson comes out flinging the ball all over the field as they have very little running game.  Examples include their game 2 weeks ago here vs Atlanta (similar type explosive offense to Philly) in which they totaled 65 points and a few weeks before that in a game here vs Houston (with Watson at QB) in a game that had 79 points.  Seattle won’t shut down this red hot Philly offense.  This will be one of those keep up type games for the offense.  They have showed they can get it done, especially at home where they have scored 31 or more in 3 of their last 4 games.  When looking at totals in Seattle, weather is always a key.  The forecast calls for 42 degrees, no rain, and almost no wind tonight (3 to 5 MPH).  Perfect conditions.  We like this one to fly OVER the total.

ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +3.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH!

We were on the Jets last week and feel we had the right side.  Carolina was favored by 6 and won by 8 but were very fortunate to do so.  The Jets actually outgained the Panthers by nearly 100 yards but allowed 2 non-offensive TD’s in the 4th quarter (fumble return & punt return) and even with that were down by just 5 in the final minute.  The way the game timed out the Panthers were forced to kick a FG with 20 seconds left as they were not able to run the clock out.  NY was impressive offensively putting up 27 points and nearly 400 yards vs one of the top defenses in the NFL (Panthers are 2nd in NFL in total defense).  QB McCown has been surprisingly good this year including over 300 yards vs the Panthers last week and we actually would take him over KC QB Smith who has been bad over the last month plus.  The Jets offense should be solid again this week vs a KC defense that ranks 27th in the NFL.  The Chiefs, on the other hand, simply can’t score anymore.  Last week they faced a Buffalo defense that had allowed a whopping 135 points over their previous 3 games and Alex Smith and company were only able to put up 10 points and lost at home.  Buffalo had been outgained in 9 straight games before putting up more yards than KC last Sunday.  The Chiefs have now lost 5 of their last 6 games with their one win coming by a single point and have scored 17, 9, and 10 points over their last 3.  The Jets are 3-3 at home and their 3 losses have come vs 3 of the better teams in the NFL (New England, Carolina, and Atlanta) and all were one score games.  KC doesn’t rate anywhere near those teams right now yet they are still laying points here.  We like the Jets to win this game outright.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -2.5 over Tampa Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Packers last home game was a debacle as they lost 23-0 to Baltimore.  They will absolutely want to atone for that performance and they picked up some momentum last week @ Pittsburgh.  Although a loss, they took one of the best teams in the NFL, in one of the toughest places to play in the NFL to the wire in a 31-28 win.  After throwing up an egg at home the previous week, the GB offense played much better against one of the top defensive units in the league.  QB Brett Hundley threw for 245 yards and 3 TD’s in his best performance yet.  Now after facing two of the best defense teams on back to back weeks, we expect the offense to look good again as they take a big step down facing a Bucs defense that ranks last in the NFL in both YPG defense (395 YPG) and YPP defense (6.1).  Tampa goes back to Jameis Winston at QB here and we actually think that is a negative for their offense.  The Bucs were able to win 2 of their last 3 games with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, albeit vs the Jets and Dolphins, but he had them playing OK on that side of the ball.  Winston has a bad shoulder and was simply poor losing 5 straight before he went on the shelf for a few weeks.  We don’t think he magically starts to perform well here.  Tampa is just 1-5 on the road this year with their only win coming @ Miami in a game the Bucs were outgained by 130 yards.  They have been a terrible road team in general winning just 16 of their last 53 away from home.  Green Bay should have a spark here coming off a solid performance.  They also receive word that Aaron Rodgers has a chance to come back in a few weeks and with games vs Tampa and Cleveland the next two weeks, this team could push themselves right back into the playoff race.  Packers are the side here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Washington -122 on Money Line over Dallas, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET

Both of these teams have had a week off since playing on Thanksgiving.  Dallas has gone into the tank since RB Elliott has gone to the bench.  Their offense has been non-existent putting up just 7, 9, and 6 points their last 3 games.  The Boys have been outgained by 529 yards in those 3 games vs Atlanta, Philly, and LA Chargers.  The defense has been equally as bad allowing 27, 37, and 28 points their last 3 and clearly miss top LB Lee.  The Skins have played the toughest road schedule in the NFL already facing the likes of the Rams, Chiefs, Eagles, Seahawks, and Saints away from home.  They have proven they can hang with the league’s best on the road as they beat the Rams & Seahawks, while taking the Saints to OT and were tied with KC with under 10 seconds remaining in that game.  Dallas was playing at full strength and playing at the top of their game when these two met in Washington in October.  The Boys won the game 33-19 with Elliott leading the way with 2 TD’s and 150 yards on the ground.  The overall yardage was fairly close but Dallas had a pick 6 late in the game to pull away.  That win by Dallas gave the road team 7 straight covers in this series.  The road team has also won 7 of the last 8 outright and the Redskins have covered 9 of the last 10 here in Dallas.  With Dallas playing poorly and very little home field advantage (2-4 record at home this year) we see Washington winning this one.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis +3.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - AFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH

The Colts are in a good spot here.  They are rested and ready to go off a bye week and they are actually playing solid football right now.  Their last 3 games were a 1-point loss @ Cincy, a win @ Houston, and a 3-point loss here vs Pittsburgh.  Their tight loss vs Pittsburgh was a game the Steelers never led until the final FG of the game as time expired.  Tennessee has had zero success here in Indy losing 11 straight.  Not only has this team not won here in over a decade, t’s also a Titans team that isn’t very good on the road period.  Their last 4 road games were a loss @ Miami, they were destroyed @ Houston, barely won in OT (12-9 final) @ Cleveland, and then just lost 40-17 @ Pittsburgh.  They have also lost 15 of their last 16 AFC South road games!  These two met in mid October in Tennessee and the Titans won 36-22.  However, that was a very deceiving final as the game was tied at 22-22 with just 6:00 remaining in the game.  That was also when the Colts weren’t playing nearly as well as they are right now.  That win over Indy gave Tennessee a 1-16 record vs Indy over their last 17 meetings.  That’s right, one win for Tennessee in 17 meetings.  This Titan team is overrated with a 6-4 record but a -31 point differential which ranks 10th in the AFC!  We feel the Colts with an improving QB Brissett has a great shot to win this game.  Even if they don’t, we have more than a FG cushion with the number.  Colts are the play here.

ASA PLAY ON: Dallas Cowboys (+1) over the LA Chargers, Thursday 4:30PM ET - The value in the number here is undeniable as the Cowboys, even without Elliott, should be a 3 or more point favorite. The Cowboys at home against the Packers with Rodgers were a 3-point chalk. The Chargers were at Oakland and the NY Giants a few weeks back and were 3-point dogs. I'll repeat that...the Chargers were 3-point underdogs AT THE NY GIANTS who are one of the 4 worst teams in the league! Dallas is coming off two horrible showings against two hot teams right now which has caused the oddsmakers to over-adjust this line. The Cowboys went to Atlanta 2 weeks ago and faced a desperate Falcons team and were blown out. Last week they played arguably the best team in the NFL, Philly, off a bye week. L.A. blew out the Bills on the scoreboard but benefitted from 6 turnovers and only outgained the Bills by just 36 yards. There is a big discrepancy in the strengths of schedule here as the Chargers have played the easier schedule yet their season stats are near identical. The Cowboys will hopefully have left tackle Smith back here but it shouldn't matter as the Cowboys rushing attack (4th in NFL at 140RYPG) should exploit the NFL's WORST rush defense of the Chargers (allowing 139RYPG). 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -3 over Detroit, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET

The Vikes have been waiting for this one since losing at home to Detroit 14-7 back on October 1st.  Minnesota outgained Detroit in the game and held the Lions to just 3.7 YPP while averaging 5.4 YPP.  The difference were the turnovers as Minnesota had 3 and Detroit had none.  The Vikings led at halftime but 2 fumbles in the 3rd quarter led to all of the Lions 11 second half points.  Detroit had to come struggled each of the last 2 weeks to get by Cleveland at home and @ Chicago last Sunday.  They were outgained by both of those struggling offenses and trailed by double digits in each.  Get behind here and they are in big trouble against a Minnesota defense that is playing shut down ball right now.  Last week they completely stymied the #1 scoring offense in the league holding the Rams to 7 points and only 254 total yards.  Minnesota’s offense continues to click as the put up 24 points vs a very good Rams defense in that easy win.  QB Case Keenum continues to play at a very high level as he now ranks 2nd in the entire NFL in QBR behind only Deshaun Watson who is out for the season.  Detroit has been beating the poor teams but struggling against good teams.  They have already lost at home to Atlanta, Carolina, and Pittsburgh with their home wins coming against Arizona & Cleveland.  The Vikings are playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now winning 6 straight games.  They are better than Detroit on BOTH sides of the ball (5th in total offense to 16th AND 5th in total defense to 23rd for Detroit) and should have a little extra edge after losing at home 6 weeks ago.  Minnesota wins and covers here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +3 over Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Lions won at home 38-24 over a terrible Cleveland team last week but it wasn’t nearly that easy.  Detroit was actually down 24-17 late in the 3rd quarter and they were outgained by a bad Cleveland offense in that game.   Speaking of the bad Browns offense, they put up over 400 yards last week on Detroit including 200 on the ground and were +10 in first downs.  On top of that, Cleveland blew a number of scoring chances including getting inside the Detroit 5-yard line twice and coming away with zero points.  Definitely a deceiving final score and a game Cleveland could have won.  Chicago has been more than competitive at home.  They beat both Carolina and Pittsburgh here and lost tight games to Minnesota & Atlanta.  Last week was the first time they were favored at home this year facing Green Bay and the laid an egg losing 23-17.  Detroit has a winning record at 5-4 but we feel they are overvalued because of that.  The fact is they have been outgained in 6 of their last 8 games.  On the season they are -14 YPG and -0.2 YPP which is very similar to Chicago who is -24 YPG and -0.2 YPP on the year.  Chicago at home, getting points, with a big edge on defense (9th overall to 23rd) is a solid play.  The Bears are 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 as a home dog and Detroit is just 2-13 ATS after scoring 35+ points.  Take Chicago.   

ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -7 over Tennessee, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET

The Steelers have always excelled at home, the problem is, they’ve played very few home games this year.  Of their 9 games on the season, only 3 have been at Heinz Field.  They are 2-1 here this year with blowout wins over Minnesota & Cincinnati and an embarrassing loss to Jacksonville who’s turning out to be much better than most expected.  Even in their loss to the Jags, the Steelers had more yardage but Roethlisberger threw a whopping 5 picks including 2 that were returned for Jacksonville TD’s.  We don’t think the Titans are as good as their 6-3 record right now.  We realize they’ve won 4 straight, however 4 of their last 5 games have come against 4 of the NFL’s worst teams (Miami, Cleveland, Cincy, & Indy).  Last week at home they scored a TD with 36 seconds left to beat a struggling Cincy team 24-20.  A week earlier at home they squeaked by Baltimore 23-20 despite getting outgained by almost 100 yards.  In their last 3 road games they were creamed @ Houston 57-14, lost @ Miami, won @ Cleveland in OT.  The Steelers played terrible last weekend @ Indy but picked up the 20-17 win.  We expect a motivated effort back at home after that performance.  The Pitt defense has been lights out this year (4th in the NFL in defensive efficiency) and we have a big edge on that side of the ball as Tennessee hasn’t been great (23rd in defensive efficiency).  Offensively Pitt has struggled at times but is much more comfortable at home.  They have the playmakers to put up big numbers here against the Titans.  Tennessee relies heavily on the run and Pitt knows that.  Look for them to shut down the run and force Tennessee to try and beat them through the air.  That will be tough as Mariota is not at 100% with ankle and shoulder problems.  It’s showed on the field as he’s failed to throw for 200 yards in 4 of their last 6 games.  Pitt’s pass rush is among the best in the NFL ranking in the top 3 in sacks per game and sack percentage so when Mariota does throw, he’ll have pressure on him.  Pitt is a money making 84-56-5 ATS (60%) the last 38 seasons as a home favorite of -3 to -7 and they have the advantage playing at Heinz Field on a short week.  The Steelers roll up a big win tonight.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 38.5 Points - Miami @ Carolina, Monday at 8:30 PM ET

While this number is set fairly low (currently at 38.5) it really should be lower than it is.  The oddsmakers won’t set this one in the mid-30’s but based on seasonal scoring stats that’s where it should be.  These are two of the worst scoring offenses in the NFL with Miami dead last at 14 PPG and Carolina ranked 22nd at 18 PPG.  That means these two average 32 PPG offensively.  On defense Carolina ranks 3rd in the NFL allowing 17 PPG and Miami is 17th at 22 PPG.  So defensively they allow just 39 PPG which is where this number is set.  However, factoring in the offense is should be set lower.  More than that obviously goes into setting the totals but the point is from a raw scoring number stand point this is set too high.  Miami’s offense has been bad on the season but horrendous on the road.  They have played 4 games away from home this season and scored a grand total of 45 points in those games (just 10 PPG).  Facing a Panther defense that ranks #1 in total defense allowing just 274 YPG we don’t expect the Fins to magically break out offensively tonight.  The Panther offense is far from potent topping 20 points in just half of their eight games this season.  Their last 3 games they have 40 combined points for any average of just 13 PPG.  We expect this to be a low scoring grinder type game and the UNDER is the play here.   

Buffalo +3 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Bills are in the much better situational spot here.  They are coming off a Thursday night game so a full 10 days to prepare while Saints will be playing for the 5th consecutive week.  Buffalo is being overlooked here.  They are 5-3 one the season including a perfect 4-0 at home with a +32 point differential.  Their defense this season has been solid this season but very good at home allowing 16 points or less in 3 of their 4 games.  Buffalo is also off their most disappointing performance of the season, a Thursday night loss @ Jets, so we expect a very solid game by the host in this game.  New Orleans has won 6 straight games but they’ve had a very favorable schedule over the last month with 3 home games and their only road tilt coming @ Green Bay with Rodgers on the shelf.  Their defense has been playing very well however, they’ve done so over the last month vs a bunch of bad offenses, including Miami (last in NFL in total offense), Green Bay (who looks just as bad without Rodgers), Tampa (whose been terrible offensively over the last month), and Chicago (who has scored 4 offensive TD’s over their last 4 games).  Now they face a rested Buffalo offense who has averaged 28 PPG on their home field.  We think the Saints are a bit overvalued right now and this is a tough spot for them.  Buffalo is 11-4 ATS their last 15 as a home underdog or 3 points or more and we like them here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle -5.5 over Arizona, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET

This is a huge game for the Seahawks after losing at home last Sunday to Washington.  While they came up short on the scoreboard losing 17-14 they dominated the stat sheet outgaining the Skins by almost 200 yards.  The Seattle offense crossed  midfield into Washington territory on 9 of their 14 drives so they obviously blew a number of opportunities (3 missed field goals included).  Now they sit a full game behind the Rams for the NFC West division lead and cannot afford a loss here.  Luckily for them they are playing a bad Arizona team.  The Cards are 4-4 but their wins have come against SF (twice), Indy, and Tampa who have a combined 5-21 record.  Their other opponents (Dallas, Detroit, Philadelphia, and the LA Rams) have all beaten the Cards by double digits.  Their point differential in those four losses, the only four winning teams they’ve played, is -80 points.  The Cards are a limited offense that averages just 17 PPG.  Now even more so with starting QB Carson Palmer sidelined and back up Drew Stanton under center.  Stanton is a career 52% passer with 5 more interceptions (21) than TD’s (16).  Because of that this offense has to rely heavily on RB Adrian Peterson and Seattle knows that.  Peterson carried  the ball  a whopping 37 times last Sunday in San Francisco and on a short week, it might be tough for the aging RB to come back and be effective on Thursday night.  Seattle has won 3 of their last 4 here in Arizona and the only game they didn’t win in that stretch was their 6-6 tie last season.  The Seahawks have been great bouncing back after a loss winning 18 of their 22 games following a setback.  We view Arizona as one of the worst teams in the NFL and Seattle one of the best.  The Cards are off a win vs an 0-9 SF team while Seattle is off a loss. This sets up very nicely to lay the points with the Seahawks. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Green Bay +3 over Detroit, Monday at 8:30 PM ET

Situationally this game absolutely favors the Packers.  They are coming off a bye which gave them 2 full weeks to cater their offense to and develop a gameplan for QB Brett Hundley.  That’s also a big disadvantage for the Detroit defense who will see things from Green Bay that they can’t prepare for from their film study.  Let’s not forget before their break GB played host to New Orleans who is one of the hottest teams in the NFL and led 17-16 into the 4th quarter.  Packers will be ultra motivated here after hearing for weeks they cannot win without Rodgers in the line up.  They have absolutely dominated the Lions here at Lambeau Field winning 25 of the last 26 meetings and Detroit was not favored in ANY of those games.  The Lions are just 3-4 on the year and they are getting outgained by an average of 0.7 YPP.  Detroit is 22nd in YPP offense putting up only 4.9 and they are 27th in the same stat defensively allowing 5.6.  The Cats have now lost 4 of their last 5 games and this team can’t be trusted to lay points on the road where they are 1-6 ATS in that situation since November of 2013.  Now playing a rested team that will be well prepared we expect another loss for the Lions here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Miami +3 over Oakland, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET

We expect the Fins to come out with some serious passion here after getting thoroughly embarrassed in their most recent game @ Baltimore.  They lost that game 40-0 on a Thursday so they’ve had 10 days to steam about that one and get ready for Oakland.  Remember Miami was playing quite well leading into that terrible loss winning 3 straight.  While their offense has struggled at times Miami had scored 51 points in their previous 2 games leading into their Baltimore loss.  They also get Jay Cutler back at QB here which will help.  Not sure why the Raiders would be a full FG favorite on the road in this one.  They are coming off a 34-14 loss @ Buffalo last week and are now on the east coast again.  They did stay east but that often times messes up a team’s routine.  On top of that Oakland has lost 5 of their last 6 games with their only win coming at home by a single point.  This isn’t the Oakland of last year.   Much has been made of Miami’s offense being stale but let’s not forget the Raiders have scored 17 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 games.  Miami’s defense is very good ranking 7th in the NFL so we don’t look for the Oakland offense to get on track here.  Oakland laying points on the road with a struggling offense and a defense that is ranked 26th in the NFL is not a good combination.  Take the points on Sunday night.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle -7 over Washington, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

The Redskins are a mash unit right now especially on the offensive line.  4 of their 5 starters up front are questionable in this game.  The Skins have lost 3 of their last 4 games with all 3 setbacks coming by at least 9 points.  They are also in a tough situational spot coming off two huge NFC East games vs Dallas & Philly, both losses, and now they must travel across the country.  The Seattle offense which struggled early in the season is now starting to heat up.  After scoring just 9 & 12 points in their first two games of the season, the Seahawks have averaged 31 PPG since.  They’ve also won 5 of their last 6 games.  We expect the Seattle defense to come out with a chip on their shoulder as well after allowing Houston to score 29 points on them here at home in their most recent game.  Before that, this defense has allowed more than 18 points only once all season.  Seattle is simply a fantastic home team.  Since Russell Wilson took over at QB they are 42-6 here at home (29-17-2 ATS).  Better yet, if they are favored at home by a TD or less this team is 25-9-1 ATS!  Washington, on the other hand, has won only 9 of their last 32 road games.  Seattle is at home for the 2nd straight game and they roll here.

We will play on the NY Jets (+3) over the Buffalo Bills - 8:25 PM ET - The Bills are 5-2 SU on the year and looking like a playoff team in the AFC. The Jets are 3-5 SU and, well umm, look like the Jets. But seriously you should never bet games on just the 'eyeball' test as some underlying numbers tell us the Bills aren't as good as their record while the Jets are actually a little better than theirs. Buffalo has been outgained by foes in 6 of seven games this season and in those six games they were outgained by an average of 83YPG. The Bills offense is 28th in the NFL in total yards per game at just 303 and 25th in yards per play at 4.8YPPL. The Jets on the other hand are averaging more total yards per game at 307.9YPG and rank near the league average in yards per play at 5.2YPPL. Both teams have similar defensive statistics too with the Bills allowing 346.6YPG compared to the Jets 361.4YPG. They each allow right around 5.4YPPL defensively too. So why is there a drastic difference in their records and perceptions of their overall teams? Buffalo has 17 takeaways this season and just 3 turnovers while the Jets have 13 takeaways but 14 turnovers. The value in the number is clearly with the Jets in this game as they were +7 at Buffalo in the season opener and are now +3 at home. Take the home dog on a short week playing with revenge!

We're going to grab the points and the Broncos (+) on Monday night is this big AFC West rivalry. Both teams come into tonight's game having lost two straight games but both results were misleading. Denver outgained both foes but turned the ball over 6 times and blew several scoring opportunities. Kansas City on the other hand was outgained in both games by a total of 268 yards and they were plus one in total turnovers. In terms of defensive efficiency ratings the Broncos have a decided advantage with the 4th best DEFF rating in the NFL compared to KC's 24th. The Broncos allow just 4.5 yards per play compared to 6.1YPPL allowed by the Chiefs. Denver's defense is giving up just 258YPG this season which is on par with the Steelers who just held KC to 13 points and 251 total yards. Offensively the Chiefs hold an edge with the #1 ranked offensive efficiency numbers while the Broncos are 22nd.  A big reason for Denver's poor overall OEFF numbers are their turnovers this season so if they value the football, it will translate to better numbers and obviously more wins. This is a great spot to take an undervalued 'dog' with a great defense getting a full TD. The Broncos are 14-5 ATS (15-4 SU) their last 19 division road games. Since 2012, home division favorites on MNF are a horrendous 3-12-2 ATS (20%) and road teams on MNF that have lost 2+ consecutive games are 11-3 ATS. In this rivalry the Chiefs have been favored by 7 or more points just three times since 1980. The play here is the DOG and points - DENVER BRONCOS!

ASA PLAY ON  10* Over 42 Points - Indianapolis @ Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We are play OVER 42 in the Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals game. 1PM ET - We love the situation here as the oddsmakers have OVER-ADJUSTED the line on this game as the Colts are coming off scoring 0 points against the Jaguars while the Bengals put up just 14 in Pittsburgh. So now we have a very favorable line with two offenses that are better than they showed a week ago. These two teams just faced the two best defenses in the NFL last week when it come to overall defensive efficiency ratings. The Jags and Steelers both rand 2nd and 3rd in points allowed per game at less than 17PPG. So now these offenses will see defenses that are significantly worse as the Bengals are 11th overall in DEFF while the Colts are 30th. In comparable instances this season: The Bengals got off to a horrible start to the season offensively, then fired their O-coordinator. They then put up 291 yards and 20 points against the Packers (18th DEFF), 350 yards and 31 points versus the Browns (19th DEFF) and 398 yards and 20 points against the Bills 8th ranked DEFF unit. Now they go up against a Colts D that is 30th in terms of DEFF allowing nearly 32PPG on the season. Indianapolis was completely shut down by the Jags defense last week but in their two previous games against San Francisco and Tennessee they put up 26 and 22 points with an average of 372 yards per game. 5 of the Colts seven games this year have finished with 49 or more total points. Cincinnati hasn't played in many higher scoring games this year but they played four games against defenses ranked 8th or better in defensive efficiency ratings! The bet here is OVER!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -10 over Cleveland, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET

The Browns have been competitive at times at home this year, but when they venture away from Cleveland they have been beaten soundly.  The only exception to that is a 3-point loss @ Indy who many feel is the worst team (yes worse than Cleveland) in the NFL.  Their other games away from home were double digit losses @ Baltimore and @ Houston.  The Browns are off a disappointing OT home loss to Tennessee.  Now they must travel to London in a somewhat meaningless game for a team that is 0-7.  The Browns have now lost 23 of their last 24 games and they are just 8-16 ATS in those games.  This is a team that has led for a grand total of 2 SNAPS this season.  Their offense has been terrible topping 18 points only once the entire season.  They rank dead last in the NFL in offensive efficiency.  On top of  that they will be without their best offensive linemen (Joe Thomas) who is arguably their best player as well.  It won’t get any better here facing a Minnesota defense that ranks 4th in total defense (283 YPG) and YPP defense (4.6).  Only one team has reached 20 points on this Viking defense this year and that was Pittsburgh.  The Vikings are fighting for the NFC North title while Cleveland has nothing to play for in London.  We expect the Browns to do next to nothing offensively and Minnesota to pick up an easy win early on Sunday. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Washington +5 over Philadelphia, Monday at 8:30 PM ET

These two met in the season opener and Philly won 30-17.  Since that opening weekend loss, the Skins have lost only one time and that was @ KC in a game that was tied with 8 seconds remaining.  In their loss to the Eagles, Washington played their worst game of the season with 4 turnovers.  Two of those were in Eagle territory, one was a fumbled punt, and one was fumble return for a Philly TD.  In other words, the turnovers made a huge difference in the outcome of the game as they usually do.  Washington QB Kirk Cousins was poor in that one but has been very good since.  In his last 3 games he’s thrown for almost 1,000 yards with 8 TD’s and just 1 interception.  Cousins has also been great in this spot going 9-3 ATS as a division underdog.  The Eagles are getting a lot of publicity right now as the potential team to beat in the NFC.  We know that situation changes almost on a weekly basis and feel the Eagles are bit overvalued right now.  They did have a solid win most recently @ Carolina 28-23 but benefitted from 3 Cam Newton interceptions.  Their other 3 wins, besides Washington, came against the Giants, Cards, and Chargers who have combined to win 6 games this season.   As far as yards per play numbers are concerned (we feel these are most important), Washington gets the nod both offensively (6.1 to 5.9) and defensively (5.5 to 5.7).  At worst, these two teams should be rated dead even on a neutral field to the 4.5 points Philly is laying here is off.  Before their loss earlier this year, the Skins had won 6 straight vs the Eagles and they have a little extra motivation here.  Even if they lose, we anticipate this game being close.  Take the points.  

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver (pick-em) over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

We expect a very good game from Denver after their embarrassing home effort last Sunday vs the depleted Giants.  The Broncos were +146 yards in that game but turned the ball over 3 times (0 for the Giants) including QB Siemian throwing a pick 6.  Denver is 3-2 on the season but their stats tell us they have outgained all 5 of their opponents this season.  The Chargers began the season 0-4 but are back “home” off two road wins.  They squeaked by the 1-6 Giants on the road and topped a struggling Oakland team by 1-point.  The Bolts have ZERO home field advantage in LA this year and in fact, in the majority of their home tilts the opposing team has had more fans.  You can expect the same here as the Bronco contingent travels well.  The Chargers are 0-3 both SU & ATS at home this year.  When these two met in Denver earlier this year, the Broncos came away with a 24-21 win.  It wasn’t that close as Denver led 24-7 nearly midway through the 4th quarter when the Chargers added a few scores.  The Broncos outgained LA 321 to 249 in the game.  Denver has been a GREAT road team in division play winning 15 of their last 18 outright (14-4 ATS).  We like the top defense in the NFL (261 YPG allowed) coming off a poor performance to win this game outright.  Take Denver.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville -3 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Jags are absolutely the superior team here.  We feel they are better than their 3-3 record while Indy isn’t as good as their 2-4 might tell us.  The match up here is a mismatch.  The Jags are #1 in the NFL in defensive efficiency.  The Colts offense ranks 29th in efficiency.  They will struggle big time to put points on the board here.  Last week the Jags faced off against the #2 scoring offense in the NFL (Rams) and held them to one offensive TD.  A week earlier they faced a potent Pittsburgh offense and held them to 9 points.  They have held half their opponents (3) to under 10 points.  Now they face the least efficient offense they’ve seen this year.  On the other side of the ball, the Jags have been up and down offensively, however they should break out here against the 32nd (last) most efficient defense in the NFL.  Indy has two 3-point wins vs SF & Cleveland who are combined 0-12.  In their 4 losses the Colts have a point differential of minus 82!  Jacksonville is off a home loss to the Rams, a game in which they outgained LA by 140 but allowed 2 non-offensive TD’s.  Off that loss we expect a big performance here.  The Jags outgain their opponents 5.4 YPP to 5.1 for a +0.3 YPP differential.  The Colts have been outgained 5.2 YPP to 6.4 YPP for a -1.2 YPP differential.  Jacksonville is 2-1 on the road this year with wins @ Pittsburgh and @ Houston.  This is a low number and we like the Jaguars to control this game and get the easy cover.

ASA play on UNDER 47 Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans, 8:30PM ET - The reports out of Tennessee is that QB Marcus Mariota is very limited right now and if he’s able to play will be confined to the pocket. That means a heavy dose of the running game against a Colts defense that is 21st in the NFL in our rush efficiency ratings. Breaking down the numbers even further we find the Colts rush D is even worse than the stats show as they’ve faced the two worst rushing offenses in in terms of efficiency stats (49ers 31st, Cardinals 32nd) and the Rams who rank 22nd. Now Indianapolis will try to stop a Titans offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in rushing efficiency and averages 4.8 yards per carry which is 4th best in the league. In other words it sets up perfectly for the Titans to come into this game with a conservative game plan and protect their franchise QB. The Colts offense looked good in two games this year versus the 49ers and Browns who are a combined 0-12 SU this year. Tennessee’s defense is better than the statistics show as their aberration game versus the Texans, allowed 57 points, over 500 yard and 5 TO’s by O, has skewed their overall numbers. These two teams are also two of the slower paced teams in the league when it comes to pace of play. We like UNDER the number here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver -11 over NY Giants, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET

The Giants are in trouble here.  They are 0-5 and have lost 3 straight down to the wire games.  Now after essentially having their playoff hopes dashed they must travel west to face a rested Denver team.  How is NY going to score in this one?  They can’t run the ball (just 77 YPG) and that won’t change here facing a Denver team that leads the NFL allowing only 50 YPG on the ground.  So they must lean on an immobile Eli Manning to try and make something happen vs a very active and athletic Denver front 7.  Manning was sacked 5 times last week at home vs the Chargers and we can expect the same here.  The problem is, he has nobody left to throw to.  His 3 top WR’s (Beckham, Marshall, and Shepherd) are all out.  Denver’s offense will run the ball and work in play action to put points on the board here.  They are facing a tired Giants defense that has faced an average of 67 plays per games this year (3rd most in the NFL).  That tired defense has allowed at least 24 points in all but one game this year.  If Denver gets to 24 as we expect, that should be enough to cover here vs a Giant offense that will struggle big time in this game.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 42 Points - LA Rams @ Jacksonville, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

This total has come down a few points from the opener and we feel it is now too low.  We get the Jags defense ranks very highly, but they can’t stop the run.  The Rams Todd Gurley will have a big day which will help set up the pass for a vastly improved Jared Goff.  Let’s not forget the Rams are 2nd in the NFL in scoring averaging 30 PPG.  Last week they scored only 10 points vs a very good Seattle defense but don’t be fooled by that number.  LA had 375 yards in the game and blew a number of opportunities to put points on the board.  They had a TD overturned when it was ruled Gurley fumbled on the 1 yard line.  They were also shut out deep in Seattle territory on downs, missed a FG, and had two turnover in Seahawk territory.  Before last week’s game, the Rams scored 35 or more in 3 of their first 4 games.  The Jag defense looked great last week vs Pitt giving up only 9 points right?  Not so fast.  A Pitt offense, that had been struggling anyway, had 371 yards but 5 Steeler turnovers killed a number of drives.  The 30 points put up by Jacksonville was obviously helped out by the Pitt turnovers but this offense is capable.  They have scored 20 points or more in 4 of their 5 games and the Rams defense that has allowed 30 or more in 2 of their last 3 games.  OVER is the play here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -3 over Philadelphia, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET

The Panther defense has played very well all season.  They just needed the offense to catch up and when and if that happened, this team would be very good.  We’ll it’s happened.  After scoring only 45 points over their first 3 games, the Cats have scored 60 points their last two games.  Those were both road wins over New England and Detroit.  After struggling early this year, QB Cam Newton has really found his groove throwing for almost 700 yards, 6 TD’s and just 1 pick his last 2 games.  Last week’s win @ Detroit was close on the scoreboard (27-24) but Carolina dominated the game.  They led 27-10 entering the 4th quarter and outgained the Lions by 120 yards.  Philly comes in with a 4-1 record, however 3 of their 4 wins have come against the Giants, Chargers, and Cards who have a combined 3-12 record.  This is also a tough spot for the Eagles going on the road in a short week.  It’s also their 4th road game already this year.  Carolina has played the tougher schedule and have averaged 5.5 YPP while allowing 5.1 (+0.4 YPP differential).  Philly has played three of the worst teams in the NFL and they are averaging 6 YPP but allowing 6.2 (-0.2 YPP differential).  Big edge defensively to the home team here and while the Eagles have better numbers offensively, the way Carolina is playing on that side of the ball right now we’re not sure there is any edge.  Also, it looks like Philly will be without their best offensive lineman Lane Johnson who is in concussion protocol.  That would be a huge blow to the Eagle offense.  Carolina is the play on Thursday night.

PLAY UNDER 41 Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears, Monday 8:30PM ET - We like the spot here for an UNDER wager and expect a lower scoring game in this NFC North Division showdown. Chicago has made the switch to rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky which is an indicator they’ll take a “ground & pound” approach tonight with a conservative game plan to protect the rookie. Actually, beating the Vikings on the ground has been what’s worked for the Bears in the past. In last year’s two meetings the Bears rushed for 158 and 183 yards against Minnesota and their home win over the Vikes was a 20-10 (under) win. Minnesota will probably take the same approach here as they rank 12th in the NFL in rushing attempts per game and will focus on the running game in an effort to protect their QB Bradford who is coming off an injury. The reason we mention the running games is simple. Games that feature more runs than passes are typically lower scoring with less clock stoppage and less plays run. Chicago has a MUCH better defense than they rate statistically (20th in efficiency ratings) as they’ve played four of the NFL’s top 12 offenses this year. They’ve held EVERY ONE of those offenses below their season averages and three of the four teams produced their lowest offensive output of the year versus the Bears. Chicago has held the Falcons (8th), Packers (10th), Steelers (7th) and Bucs (12th) to a combined 206 total yards less than their season averages! An overrated Vikings offense will have a tough time scoring here. On that note, the Vikings rank 5th in the NFL in offensive efficiency rankings but let’s now examine who they’ve played. Minnesota has played Saints, Steelers, Bucs and Lions. Against the Saints (20th DEFF) they racked up 470 yards and 29 points. Versus the Bucs (25th DEFF) they put up 34 points and 494 total yards of O. But against two similar defenses to the Bears (Steelers & Lions) they managed 237 and 284 total yards and 16 total points. Do you see where we are going here? These two offenses rank 27th and 29th in yards per point offense and we can’t see many points being scored in this one. Under is 4-1 the L5 meetings in Chicago and 8-3 Under last 11 overall. BET UNDER!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston +1 over KC, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET

KC comes into this game with a perfect 4-0 ATS record and we feel they are overvalued at this point.  Last week was one of the luckiest covers you’ll ever see as the Chiefs scored 9 points in the final 7 seconds of the game to win and cover 29-20 vs Washington.  Their defensive TD as time expired was the only time KC was covering the entire game.  Since their switch to Watson at QB, Houston is really playing well.  They are 3-0 ATS with Watson at the helm and 2-1 SU.  Their lone loss was @ New England 36-33 in a game they really outplayed the Pats.  The outgained and had more first downs than NE in that game on the road.  Last week, Houston beat a very solid Tennessee team 57-14 outgaining them 445 to 195!  After scoring only 1 TD on 203 total yards in their opening season loss to Jacksonville, the Texans have averaged 376 YPG and 34 PPG under Watson’s direction.  So the offense is clicking right now and should do well against a KC defense that ranks 26th in the NFL in total defense.  Houston rates a large edge defensively (5th in the NFL) and has one of the top defensive lines in the league.  That should give KC all kinds of problems with an offensive line that rates one of the weakest pass protecting unit which has already given up 16 sacks on the season.  Houston won here vs KC last year 19-12 and we really like them to win this game at home on Sunday night.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -3 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Bills are a false 3-1 in our opinion.  They’ve been outgained in 3 of their 4 games (only outgained the Jets) and they are poor offensively scoring only 18 PPG on 4.6 YPP.  Last week they topped Atlanta on the road but a close look at the boxscore reveals they were thoroughly outplayed in that game as they were outgained by 100 yards and had 10 fewer first downs.  Same with the week before at home vs Denver.  Thus we have a team that has won 2 straight games outright as an underdog but has been outplayed on the field.  That creates a perfect spot to go against them here.  On top of that, Buffalo is playing back to back road games here and this is their 3rd trip away from home in their first 4 weeks of the season.  Cincinnati is an undervalued team in our view.  They started the season scoring only 9 total points in their first 2 games.  They fired their offensive coordinator and replaced him with a veteran (Zampese) and they have responded with 55 points their last 2 games.  Their offense is starting to click.  Their defense is very solid having held 3 of their 4 opponents to 20 points or fewer.  The also get one of the top defensive players back here (LB Burfict).  There is a reason the 1-3 team (Bengals) are favored over the 3-1 team here.  We like this spot and we’ll take Cincinnati.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 44.5 Points - San Francisco @ Indianapolis, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

These two offenses have struggled but for the most part they’ve been facing off against very good defenses.  Indy has faced Seattle, Arizona, and the LA Rams all of which who rank in the top 13 in the NFL in defensive efficiency.  The one poor defense they faced was Cleveland (30th in efficiency) and they put up 31 points on the Browns.  Very similar situation for the Niners.  They have faced Seattle, Arizona, and the Rams as well along with Carolina.  All 4 of those teams rank in the top 13 in defensive efficiency.  Now each get to face a defense that ranks near the bottom of the league and we think the offenses will shine here.  San Fran has a very good offensive mind as their head coach as Shanahan was the OC for Atlanta’s record season last year.  Indy’s QB Brissett had looked better each week and is getting more comfortable as the starter.  The Indy defense has allowed 28 points or more in 3 of their 4 games including twice allowing 46 points twice (Rams & Seahawks).  San Fran’s defense was solid last week but that was against an Arizona offense that has been outright bad.  In their previous 3 games they allowed 25 PPG.  These two offense finally get to face a defense that ranks near the bottom of the league and it will show.  OVER is the play.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 55.5 Points - New England @ Tampa Bay, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET

This number is set very high (currently at 56) however we don’t think its high enough.  First we have two bad defenses in this one.  New England is the worst defense in the NFL allowing 457 YPG on a ridiculous 7.4 YPP.  Tampa is 30th in total defense giving up almost 400 YPG.  On top of that Tampa is terrible stopping opponents on 3rd down allowing a 50% success rate which is last in the NFL.  They allow offenses to keep drives alive and score points.  The Pats have allowed 42, 20, 33, and 33 points in their four games this season.  While the Patriot defense is allowing plenty of points, their offense has scored the 2nd most points in the NFL.  That has led to ALL high scoring games so far this season – 69, 69, 66, and 56 points.  After holding Chicago to 7 points in their first game, they allowed nearly 500 yards to Minnesota (Vikings with back up QB) in their second game.  Last week their game with the Giants totaled 48 points but is should have been much higher.  There were 3 missed FG’s and 2 missed 2-point conversions in that game.  On top of  that, the Bucs had a first and goal and the 1-yard line and had to settle for a FG.  Both teams will put up plenty of points in this one.  Take the OVER

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 48.5 Points - Washington @ KC, Monday at 8:30 PM ET

With both defenses ranked inside the top 10 in overall efficiency, we definitely like the UNDER here.  Washington’s defense was simply phenomenal last week.  They faced a potent Oakland offense last week and held them to 96 yards passing and 32 yards rushing.  That’s 128 TOTAL yards and just 2.7 YPP vs one of the very best offenses in the NFL.  Oakland was averaging 386 YPG on over 6 YPP coming into last week.  Since their opening game in New England, the KC defense has allowed just 20 & 10 points to Philly & the Chargers.  The KC offense has also tapered back a bit after their opening 43 point outburst vs New England.  Since that they’ve scored 27 & 24, however many of those points have come very late in games.  In fact, of their 51 points they’ve scored overall the last 2 games, 21 have come in the 4th quarter with under 6:00 minutes remaining in the game.  Their game vs Philly was sitting at just 26 points with 6:30 remaining in the game and hit 47.  Lots of scoring late in their recent games which has made their games look higher scoring than they probably should have been.  This total is set at 49.5 and 5 of the 6 games these two have played this year have stayed under that number.  KC is a VERY STRONG Under team at home going 43-21-2 to the UNDER since 2009.  Too many points here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle -13 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET

The Seattle offense finally started clicking last week putting up 27 points in Tennessee on 6.3 yards per play.  The defense on the other hand was disappointing allowing 33 points to the Titans.  You can bet they’ll play with passion this week after last week’s ugly performance.  They should get it right against a Colt offense that has been held to 13 or under in 2 of their 3 games.  Last week Indy scored 31 points on the Browns but that was the Browns.  The fact is, they’ve been outgained in all 3 of their games and quite significantly vs the Rams (-148 yards) & the Cards (-123 yards).  The Seattle defense allowed 17 & 9 points their first two games of the season and we like them to hold Indy down on Sunday night.  The Seahawk offense should continue on their upward trend vs an Indy defense that has given up at least 28 points in 2 of their 3 games.  The Colts have played one road game this year and that was a 46-9 whitewashing @ LA Rams.  This is a must win for Seattle with a 1-2 record.  Losses @ Green Bay and @ Tennessee are nothing to be ashamed of.  The Hawks are 29-16-1 ATS (65%) at home since Russell Wilson took over at QB and we think this one has the makings of a blowout. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 44.5 Points - NY Giants @ Tampa Bay, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

The Giants offense has been struggle but looked like they turned the corner last week against a very good Philadelphia defense.  They put up 24 points on 6.5 yards per play.  In reality, they should have scored much more.  That’s because they were stopped on downs at the Philly 1 yard line and 13 yard line.  The offensive line is getting better and with Odell Beckham at or near 100% this is definitely a much better offense than they showed in their first few games.  Now they are clicking a face a TB defense that allowed Minnesota to rack up nearly 500 yards last Sunday with their backup QB (Case Keenum).  The Tampa defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL after two games allowing over 6 YPP.  The strength of the Bucs is definitely their offense.  They actually played quite well last week averaging 6.7 YPP vs a very good Minnesota defense.  Jameis Winston threw 3 interceptions in Minnesota territory which would have most likely led to points.  The Giant defense is good but they look a step behind last year’s unit as they’ve already allowed 24 or more points in 2 of their 3 games.  This total is set too low and we take advantage by grabbing the OVER.    

ASA PLAY ON 10* New Orleans -3 over Miami, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET - @ London

This is just a horrible spot for the Fins.  Let’s not forget this team has yet to play at home this season.  They opened with a win in LA vs the Chargers, then traveled east and lost in New York to the Jets, and now they head overseas to play in London.  Not an ideal situation.  Their defense has been poor allowing 375 yards to the Chargers in week 1 and 336 to a bad Jets offense last week. Offensively they’ve scored just 25 points in 2 games.  The two teams they’ve faced are 1-5 on the season.  New Orleans is 1-2 but they’ve played 3 playoff caliber teams.  They lost to New England and @ Minnesota when the Vikes were at full strength.  Last week they dominated the Panthers on the road winning by 21 points.  Drew Brees has been sharp with 6 TD’s and no interceptions.  Neither defense is very good, however we have a big advantage offensively with the Saints.  They are averaging nearly 2 yards per play more than the Fins despite playing the tougher schedule.  The situational edge also favors the Saints and we’ll lay the points.

Tonight we play on the Chicago Bears plus the points over the Green Bay Packers. This sets up as a potential ‘rush doubling underdog’ which is ALWAYS a solid bet in the NFL. Green Bay comes into this game with one of the worst rushing offenses in the league averaging just 69 yards per game which is 30th in the NFL. The alarming part is that the lack of a ground game has come against 2 of the eight worst rush defenses in the NFL. In comparison the Bears have the 8th best rushing ‘O’ in the league at 121 yards per game and they’ve played two of the 10 best rush defenses in the NFL. Yes, the Packers have a huge advantage at the QB position with Aaron Rodgers versus Mike Glennon but a banged up offensive line for the Packers is causing major issues for Green Bay’s offense. The Pack are one of the league leaders in total passing yards per game but also rank in the bottom half of the league in passing yards per play which is not a good sign for Packer fans. Chicago has faced two of the league’s best offenses this season in the Falcons and Steelers and more than held their own. The Bears are 12th in total defense allowing 321YPG. The Bears with running back Howard will challenge a Packers rush defense that is 21st in the NFL in stopping the run. Take the big dog here with the rushing edge support. Thursday & Monday night underdogs are 6-0 ATS this season.

Tonight we will play UNDER 47 in the Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals game. Kickoff is 8:30PM ET. NFL scoring is down dramatically right now as going into this weekend league games were averaging just 39PPG. That number is significantly less that last year’s average total points scored of 45.8. In 2015 that number was 44.8PPG. While the ‘markets’ will eventually start to correct, we don’t see it happening here tonight. These two teams rank in the bottom third of the league in yards per point with the Cardinals averaging 17.9YPPT (24th in NFL) and the Cowboys averaging 18.3YPPT (25th). But  both rank top 10 in the league in yards per play (Arizona 5th @ 4.6YPPL - Dallas 8th  4.9YPPL) and total yards allowed per game defensively. Both teams have played in one lower scoring game (unders) and one higher scoring game (overs) this season but  let’s examine the higher scoring games. Arizona played in Detroit in the season opener and the two teams combined for 58 total points BUT 21 came in the final 4 minutes of play and several scores were set up by turnovers. Last week Dallas went to Denver and gave up 42 points to the Broncos. Based on Denver’s total yards (380) and the league average of yards per point allowed (15.8) the Broncos should have scored just 24 points. A 105 yard INT for a TD certainly didn’t help the under bettors last week. After giving up 42 last week the Cowboys defense will play better this week and the running game will again be the focus offensively after just 40 yards rushing a week ago. Arizona was one of the best defensive teams in the league last year and will be up for the task here. Our math suggests just 42 points in this game. BET UNDER!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati +8 over Green Bay, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

Packers are really banged up.  Both starting OT’s are injured which makes a huge difference.  RT Bulaga may play here but he is not at 100%.  LT Bakhtiari is most likely out. The top back up at both tackles spot, Jason Spriggs, was just put on IR.  Rodgers will also most likely be without WR Randall Cobb.  Jordy Nelson looks like he’ll try to play but not 100%  Defensively they will be without arguably their top player DL Daniels.  Green Bay’s offense just hasn’t been able to get in synch (19 & 23 points) and won’t on Sunday with all of the injuries.  They are also playing a Bengal defense that has been very good allowing just 33 points total in their two games.  The Bengal offense has obviously struggled.  However they do have weapons with WR AJ Green and RB Mixon and they are bound to play better.  This Cincy team is backed into a corner in a must win spot with an 0-2 record.  They don’t even have to win this game, just keep it to a TD or less.  6 of their last 7 losses dating back to last year have come by less than a TD.  Take the points. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville +3.5 over Baltimore - Sunday at 9:30 AM ET

This game is being played in London and the Jags are very accustomed to this situation and setting.  This will be the 5th straight year they’ve played in London. They have won each of the last two season’s here in London.  Baltimore has never played here.  That’s a big advantage to the Jags.  Baltimore’s defense has looked great the first two weeks but let’s remember the offenses they have faced – Cincinnati and Cleveland.  The Bengals haven’t scored a single TD yet this year while the Browns played most of last weeks’ game vs the Ravens without starting QB Kizer.  It’s not an ideal situation for Baltimore either playing in this one off back to back big division games.  Jacksonville is 1-1 and has played the much tougher opponents thus far beating Houston on the road and then losing at home to Tennessee last week.  Despite playing a much tougher slate through 2 games, the Jags actually have the better overall numbers.  They are averaging 4.9 YPP to 4.7 for Baltimore.  Surprisingly Jacksonville is also better defensively allowing only 4.5 YPP to Baltimore’s 4.9.  The Jaguars have played this Raven team very tough in recent years as well beating them two years ago and then losing 19-17 last year on a 54 yards Baltimore FG with just 1:00 minute remaining the game.  We think this one stays tight throughout and the Birds are exposed as being an overrated 2-0 team.  Jags get the win here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 39.5 Points - LA Rams @ San Francisco, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET

The Rams offense is obviously much improved over last season when they averaged only 14 PPG.  This year they have scored 46 & 20 in their two match ups vs Indy & Washington.  They are averaging over 6 yards per play on the season.  They should be able to put up solid numbers tonight vs a SF defense that finished dead last in the NFL in scoring defense last year allowing 30 PPG.  This year the Niners have allowed 35 points in their first two games which is respectable, but let’s not forget who they’ve played.  Carolina scored 23 points on this defense in the opener and to be honest, the Panther offense looks pretty pedestrian this year.  The came back on put up only 9 points last week vs Buffalo.  SF also looked solid against a Seattle offense that is in disarray having scored only 21 total points this season.  The Rams should fare better than both of those teams vs this defense.  We get the Niner offense has looked bad against Carolina and Seattle.  Again, let’s take the competition into account here.  Seattle will absolutely have one of the top defenses in the NFL this year and Carolina has allowed 6 total points in 2 games.  We’ll get a better gauge on SF’s offense tonight and we think they’ll look much better.  The Rams defense shutdown a terrible Indy offense in week one with Scott Tolzien at QB.  Last week the Skins lit them up pretty good with 27 points which is probably a better indicator of where the Ram defense is (probably middle of the pack type defense).  This number is set too low as we look for both offenses to hit at least 20 tonight.  Take the OVER.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 42 Points - Detroit @ NY Giants, Monday at 8:30 PM ET

We expect a defensive battle in this one.  The Giants have one of the top defenses in the NFL finishing 4th in the NFL last year allowing just 18.9 PPG.  Last week vs a potent Dallas offense the allowed just 19 points despite facing 71 offensive plays.  The NYG offense?  That’s another story.  They scored only 3 points and they were held to only 4.4 yards per play vs a Dallas defense that is definitely not elite.  We’re not talking about a one game offensive problem for the G-Men as they have now been held to 20 points or fewer in 10 straight games dating back to last season.  We don’t expect them to go off this week vs a Detroit defense that held Arizona to 16 offensive points on 4.6 yards per play last week.  Detroit put up 35 points last week but that was rather deceiving.  They had only 9 points at half and scored 2 TD’s in a 10 second span with just 4:00 minutes remaining in the game.  One of those was a defensive TD.  When thinking about Detroit’s offense many still view them as a high scoring team.  That is simply not the case anymore as this team finished 22nd, 17th, and 22nd in scoring over the last 3 seasons.  UNDER is the play on Monday night.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Washington +3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

This line was set knowing the overreaction would come in regards to the Rams 46-7 drubbing of the Colts last week.  The Rams were favored by -3.5 in that game vs a team without their QB that might be the worst in the NFL.  Now they are laying basically the same number to a Washington team that was in the playoffs last year?  Value on Washington here.  Let’s please not anoint the Rams some fantastic offense after week one.  Remember this team was dead last in scoring in the NFL last year averaging just 14 PPG.  While we expect QB Jared Goff to improve he’s not going to all of the sudden light up NFL defenses every week.  Goff is now 1-7 as a starter. The Skins played pretty well defensively last week however on offense they struggled to say the least.  Four turnovers didn’t help their cause.  Keep in mind this Redskin offense was very good last year finishing 3rd in the NFL in total yardage at 403 YPG.  We expect a much better performance this week with extra motivation off a shaky effort.  The Rams are not used to being in the position of a favorite.   In fact, they’ve been favored just 26 times since 2011 and they’ve LOST 16 of those games outright.  Washington is the play here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Tennessee pick-em over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Tennessee comes into this game with an 0-1 record while Jacksonville is 1-0.  This is a huge game for a Tennessee team that has playoff aspirations and fell just short of the post-season last year.  They cannot afford an 0-2 start.  Despite their 26-16 loss last week to a very good Oakland team, the stats say the two teams played an even game.  One first down and nine total yards separated the two teams.  The time of possession was almost even as well.  The Titans had opportunities to put more points on the board but settled for FG’s twice inside the Oakland 8 yard line and also missed a FG attempt.  We expect this offense to bust out this week vs the Jags.  The Jacksonville defense looked great last week but keep in mind that was against a terrible Houston offense with one of the weakest QB situations in the league.  The Texans are also working with a poor offensive line.  Now they face a Tennessee team with an up and coming QB in Marcus Mariota and one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.  The Jags offense put up 29 points last week but was nothing special.  They had only 280 total yards (4.7 YPP) and ran the ball nearly twice as much as they threw it (21 passes to 39 rushing attempts) in order to make sure mistake prone Blake Bortels did screw up the game for them.  We anticipate them having to play from behind here which will take away that type of game plan.  On top of that, the Jags didn’t get home from last week’s game until Tuesday afternoon due to Hurricane Irma.  Their players had a distracting short week of practice having deal with the Hurricanes aftermath.  Jacksonville is just 14-26-1 ATS the game following a SU win and Tennessee rolls here.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Buffalo +7 over Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We think this is a bit of an underrated team vs an overrated team after week one.  Just looking that final score might tell us that Buffalo struggled a bit with the Jets last week winning 21-12.  That couldn’t be further from the truth.  The Bills dominated the game outgaining the Jets by nearly 200 yards.  The yards per play differential was huge with Buffalo averaging 7.3 and the Jets just 4.4.  This game final score should have been much more lopsided.  Carolina beat a terrible SF team 23-3.  Offensively the Panthers looked bad.  They had only 287 total yards in the game on 4.6 YPP.  Cam Newton, who only played on series the entire pre-season due to a shoulder problem, wasn’t overly sharp vs a Niner defense that ranked dead last in the NFL a season ago in YPG and PPG allowed.  The game turned out to be an easy win because the Niners offense is putrid.  Now they face a Buffalo offense that has a mobile threat at QB and one of the top RB’s in the league.  Also you can bet Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott will put a little extra emphasis on this one after coming over from Carolina last year (defensive coordinator @ Carolina).  He also has a pretty good idea of how to slow down this Panther offense.  Carolina plays host to AFC South rival New Orleans next week so the intensity factor probably favors Buffalo here.  While Carolina is laying a full TD in this one, let’s not forget this team was 6-10 last year!  Too many points here and we grab Buffalo.

We will PLAY OVER 38 in the Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals game Thursday evening. The number set on this game is 38, which by NFL standards is extremely low. In 2015 the average total points scored per game in the NFL was 44.8. Last year that number rose to 45.8 average PPG. Cincinnati totaled more than 38 points in 11 of 16 games last year, Houston 38+ in 10 of 17 and 4 of their last 5. They only scored 22 when they met last year but I'm banking on both offenses being much better this week after their horrible showings in Week #1. Combined these two teams had 9 turnovers in the first week of the season and several of those were in the Red Zone which would have led to more scoring. These two teams averaged less than 1.5 turnovers per game in 2016 so expect a return to normal this week. The oddsmakers are expecting the public to over-react to the Week #1 results but we won't be suckered into that train of thought. The predictive analytics on this game suggest a Total of 42 points. BET OVER!

ASA 10* PLAY ON LA Chargers +3.5 over Denver, Monday at 10:20 PM ET

One thing we like looking for is a big edge at QB and that QB’s team is a dog.  That’s what we have here.  San Diego’s (just can’t get used to saying LA quite yet) Philip Rivers has had a fantastic NFL career and is one of the top signal callers in the NFL.  Denver’s Trevor Siemian, not so much.  While he played OK last year for Denver, he completed less than 60% of his passes.  Also the big plays were lacking as Denver was 22nd in the NFL in yards per pass attempt at just 6.5.  We give San Diego a solid edge offensively with Rivers, RB Melvin Gordon, and an improved offensive line.  Defensively there is not as wide a gap as some might think.  While Denver has a very good defense, keep in mind the Chargers D was 7th in the NFL in efficiency last year.  DE’s Joey Bosa & Melvin Ingram provide one of the top pass rushing duo’s in the league.  We also have a strong situational spot here as the Chargers are THE BEST road underdog since the start of the 2004 season with a ATS record of 42-18-3!  Denver, on the other hand, has been a bad home favorite with a spread record of  25-44-2 ATS (36%) since 2006.  We like the Bolts to pull the “upset” on Monday night.  Not much of an upset in our opinion. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +4.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET

The Giants match up very well with Dallas.  Their defense, which was ranked 2nd in the NFL in efficiency last year, has shut down this high powered Cowboy offense.  In fact, Dallas who had only 3 losses in the regular season last year, lost both games to the Giants.  In those two games Dallas averaged just 13 PPG and 294 YPG.  The Dallas offense carried this team last year while the defense was poor.  If the offense is able to be slowed down, as the Giants did, this team is in trouble.  We expect the Giant defense to be one of the best in the NFL again this year and we also look for their offense to be vastly improved.  While Odell Beckham might have to sit this game due to an injury, remember NY added WR Brandon Marshall in the off-season which will really help.  Eli is one of the top veteran QB’s in the NFL while we look for Dak Prescott to take a step back this year.  It’s going to be almost impossible for Prescott to be as efficient as he was last season.  The Boys are historically are one of the worst home favorites in the NFL.  In fact since 2010 they ARE the worst home chalk in the NFL with a spread record of 12-30 (just 28%).  On the other hand, since 2006, the Giants have the 2nd best ATS road record in the entire NFL at 53-37-3.  Only the Patriots are better.  We like New York to win this game outright so we’ll grab the points!

We will play UNDER 47.5 in the Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers game. Much has been made of the 49ers new head coach Kyle Shanahan and his offensive genius being brought in from Atlanta, but last time we checked he didn't bring Matt Ryan, Julio Jones or Devonte Freeman with him. This talent shy 49ers roster was 23rd in offensive efficiency ratings last year and averaged just 19.3PPG. The Panthers were the league average in terms of scoring at 23.1PPG and barely above league average in Yards Per Points at 14.9 (league ave 15YPPT). It's not like both teams had a ton of opportunities to score either as the Panthers ranked 22nd in the league in Red Zone scoring attempts per game at 3.1 while the Niners were 28th at 2.8. We also like the fact that both teams want to run the football (Atlanta was 12th in rush attempts last year with Shanahan as OC). The Panthers have a new featured back in rookie McCaffrey while the 49ers best offensive weapon a year ago was RB Hyde. Last season the Panthers ranked 7th in rushing attempts per game while San Fran was 6th. More running, less passing means a much shorter game, and again, this number is currently HIGHER than last year's scoring average per game. Last year's contest between these two was high scoring but don't expect similar results here. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +7 over Atlanta, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We expect Atlanta to take a step back this year.  Their offensive numbers (34 PPG) is bound to take a step back.  The previous 3 years before last season this offense average 22, 23, and 21 PPG.  They also lost their offensive coordinator Shanahan which will be a factor.  The Falcon defense was not good last year ranking 26th in the NFL in defensive efficiency.  It was a huge problem because they scored so many points.  This year we see their defense costing them many more games.  This is not a one year situation as this defense was 26th last year, 22nd in 2015, and 32nd in 2014 (defensive efficiency).  They will be bad again this year.  We’re hearing Chicago is very excited about their defense.  They had some key injuries on that side of the ball last year which hurt their production.  QB Mike Glennon, while not great, will be a much better option than turnover prone Jay Cutler.  It may be tough Atlanta to rebound after blowing their huge lead in the Super Bowl last season.  In fact, teams that lose the Super Bowl are 2-12 ATS in their opener the following year.  If that opener is on the road, those numbers drop to 2-15 ATS.  We think Chicago is a bit undervalued and Atlanta is definitely overvalued.  The Bears will give them a run here and have a great chance to pull the upset.  Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON  10* Pittsburgh -8.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We hate putting ourselves on the side of the public, with a road favorite but this is one of those rare occasions we'll have to bite. Last year we made this same wager and won with the Steelers (24-9) laying 8-points in Cleveland. The Steelers will once again have a potent offense with the 3-headed monster of QB Roethlisberger, RB Bell and WR Brown and could improve upon their 7th overall offensive efficiency rankings from 2016. Pittsburgh had an average point differential of +3.8PPG last season which was the 5th best number in the NFL. Defensively the Steelers weren't the Steel Curtain of the 70's but they were still solid with the 11th best overall defensive efficiency ranking.  Pittsburgh allowed 16 or less points in 7 of their sixteen regular season games a year ago. The Browns will be starting a rookie quarterback in DeShone Kizer who's in for a long day against a Steelers D that was 9th in the NFL in sack % a year ago. Cleveland was bad on both sides of the football last year and don't look to be any better. In terms of OEFF and DEFF the Browns were 30th and 29th respectively in both categories and they had the worst overall point differential in the league at minus -11.8PPG. At home the Browns lost by an average of -11.5PPG. Pittsburgh has dominated this series with a 30-4 SU record the last 34 meetings and Roethlisberger is 20-2 SU lifetime. Cleveland is a horrendous 10-44 SU their last 54 versus AFC North. We'll lay the big number here.

PLAY ON: KC CHIEFS (+9.5) over New England, Thur 8:30PM ET - We will grab the points with Kansas City over New England on Thursday night. The line on this game opened around -7 and has quickly risen to minus 9 and even some minus 10 for New England at some Sports books. We like the value with a Chiefs team that finished last season at 12-5 and are coming off an upset home playoff loss to the Steelers. KC had a +4.5 average point differential last season overall and was just one of eight teams in the NFL to have a positive road differential. 4 of their five losses last season came by a combined 13-points and they won 6 straight road contests in the back half of their campaign in 2016-17. We totally understand the public money flowing in on New England as they are off last season's dramatic Super Bowl win, and let's face it, they are the Patriots. New England had a +12.3 average point differential last year but a lot of that had to do with who they played. The Jets and Bills twice, Rams, Browns, 49ers, Bengals, Cardinals and Ravens...NONE of which had a winning record. In fact, those teams had a combined record of 40-86-2 or 32% winning percentage. Yes, New England has a very strong home ATS record but the Chiefs are no slouch with a 12-6 ATS mark their last 18 away from home. Based on last season's offensive and defensive efficiency ratings this game will be closer than the number indicates! 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 59.5 Points - Atlanta vs New England, Sunday Feb 5th at 6:30 PM ET

Looking at this total logically and comparing it to last week’s totals, this number is simply too high.  It’s not surprising as most like to bet OVER in the Super Bowl and both teams were in high scoring Championship games so the oddsmakers had to set this high.  Atlanta’s NFC Championship game with Green Bay closed at 60.5 which is basically a point or two higher than this one.  That’s despite the fact that Green Bay’s defense was among the worst in the NFL and had a number of key injuries weakening their entire unit.  Now the Birds face one of the better defense in the NFL and the total is nearly the same?  How about the New England vs Pitt total in the AFC Champoinship game.  That was set at 50 vs a Steeler offense that was among the best in the NFL with 3 of the top offensive players in the NFL at the skill positions (Roethlisberger, Brown, and Bell).  Yet this total is set a full 9 points higher than that one?  Again too high.  The Falcons defense has gotten much better.  After allowing 27.6 PPG and 382 YPG over the first 12 games they’ve dropped those numbers to just 19 PPG on 339 YPG over their last 6.   The Pats led the NFL in scoring defense by a full 3 points over Seattle giving up just 15.6 PPG.   The top 10 scoring offenses that Belichick faced this year were held to an average of 5 PPG below their season average and we’d expect the same here with Atlanta.  We’d be shocked in the Falcons roll up 30+ points in this game.  Don’t be surprised if New England tries to shorten this game with their running attack.  This is the highest total in Super Bowl history and only 8 of the 50 Super Bowls have gotten into the 60’s.  We think the value is with the UNDER. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Atlanta, Sunday Feb 5th at 6:30 PM ET

The Patriots are in their element here.  They’ve already been here 6 times in the Belichick/Brady Era and won 4 of those.  You can bet Brady is ultra-focused and motivated here as a win would cement him as the greatest of all time with 5 Super Bowl Rings – would be the most by a QB in NFL history.  He also has a bit of an agenda here as he’s still extremely angry with commissioner Roger Goodell for suspending him for 4 games this season because of the deflate gate stuff.  Goodell decided to skip the game in New England last week and go to Atlanta and you can bet that didn’t go unnoticed by Brady and the Pats.  The Atlanta players have no experience with this situation.   This is their first Super Bowl appearance since 1999 and the distractions and craziness leading up to the game is all new to them.  That gives Belichick and company a huge advantage in our opinion.  This will be the 7th time the NFL’s top scoring defense (New England) faces the top scoring offense (Atlanta) in the Super Bowl.  The team with the top scoring defense has won all but one of those games.  Belichick will have two weeks to get his defense ready for Atlanta’s offense which is a huge bonus in our opinion.  He won’t let the Falcons go up and down the field as they did last week vs a porous and injury riddled Packer defense that rated as one of the worst in the NFL.  The top 10 scoring offenses that Belichick faced this year were held to an average of 5 PPG below their season average and we’d expect the same here with Atlanta.  We’d be shocked in the Falcons roll up 30+ points in this game.  This Patriot defense has allowed 30+ points only once this entire season and they’ve held 13 of their 18 opponents this year to under 20 points.  We wouldn’t be surprised at all if Belichick slows this game down and uses his running game to eat clock keeping Atlanta’s offense on the sidelines.  The Pats are good enough to win that type of game or if it turns into a shootout, this offense CAN keep up with Atlanta.  While the Falcons defense has improved late in the season, they have also allowed 20 or more points in 13 of their 18 games this season.  Brady should be able to pick apart one of the youngest defenses in the NFL.  Let’s not forget the Pats have lost a grand total of ONE game with Brady in the line up (vs Seattle).  Atlanta had losses to TB, San Diego, Philly, and Seattle, three of those being non-playoff teams.  New England is simply the better team and their experience in this situation is a HUGE factor.  Lay the field goal with the PATRIOTS.

ASA PLAY 10* New England -6 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 7:40 PM ET

It’s hard to ignore New England’s home field advantage.  They have won almost 90% of their games at home over the last 4 seasons (33-4 SU) but even more impressive they are 26-9-2 ATS mark (74%).  Pittsburgh, on the other hand, was not a great road team this year.  They were just 5-3 away from home in the regular season despite playing only one playoff team on the road (a 30-15 loss @ Miami).   The Steelers averaged 30 PPG at home with Roethlisberger under center but just 21 PPG on the road.  Big Ben at home had a QB rating of 117 and on the road just 78.  He’s thrown 20 TD’s and 5 picks at home and 9 TD’s and 9 interceptions on the road.  He’s facing a New England defense that doesn’t get a lot of publicity but leads the NFL allowing only 15.6 PPG which is a full 3 points better than Seattle who finished 2nd.  Because of Roethlisberger’s road struggles we give a nice edge at QB to Brady at home in this one.  Also throw in the fact that Brady has owned the Steelers with a 7-2 lifetime record throwing 24 TD’s and just 3 interceptions.  Brady’s 114 QB Rating vs Pittsburgh is the second highest of his career vs any opponent.  The Pats also have an edge on the sidelines.  Belichick vs Tomlin is a mismatch in our opinion.  New England also had an extra day to rest and prepare having played on Saturday while Pitt played Sunday night @ KC.  Steelers have also been fighting the flu this week with 15 players having to sit out practice on Wednesday & Thursday with the illness.  New England played poorly last week at home vs Houston and we look for them to rebound with a very good performance on Sunday.  We’ll lay it with the Patriots.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 44.5 - Pittsburgh @ Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20PM ET

This game has been moved from a 1:00 PM ET Sunday start to an 8:20 PM ET start to try and avoid the ice storm that will hit the area this weekend.  They are hoping it will be pass through completely by the time the game starts.  This total is set low with the weather in mind, however we think it is too low.  Even if the field conditions aren’t great, that favors the offense in our opinion, especially with little wind which is expected the be the case on Sunday night.  Pittsburgh is one of the top offenses in the NFL.  They are 6th in the NFL averaging 372 YPG and they put up 25 PPG.  Those numbers are skewed even lower than they should be in our opinion as they had to play a game with Roethlisberger on the bench with an injury and another with Big Ben not even close to 100%.  The fact it this team scored 24 points or more in 12 of the 15 games that Big Ben was under center and one of the three where they didn’t he probably shouldn’t have been in the game due to an injury.  The KC defense seems to get more props than they deserve.  The Chief defense actually ranks 24th in total defense and isn’t particularly stout vs the run or the pass.  The Steelers shredded this defense for 43 polnts on 436 yards in their match up earlier this season.  Can KC score against Pitt?  We believe they will.  The Chief offense is better than most believe.  They averaged 24 PPG facing a very tough “defensive” schedule (ranked 8th in the NFL).  When KC faced off against a top 10 offense, you could tell by their game plan that Andy Reid knew he couldn’t hold the opponent in check and that he had to be more aggressive on offense and score to have a chance.  Of their 8 games vs top 10 scoring offenses, the Chiefs offense eclipsed their 24 PPG average in 7 of those games.  They were aggressive on offense.  The only time they did not was vs this Pittsburgh team but that changes here.  In those 8 games vs top 10 scoring offenses KC & their opponent averaged 50 points.  Reid knows he has to again be aggressive here because they are not going to shut down a team that scored 43 on them already this year.  KC’s offense is playing better down the stretch than they have all season scoring at least 29 points in 4 of their final 6 games.  Another key factor here is KC’s “non offensive” TD capability.  They led the NFL in defensive/special teams TD’s scoring a whopping 8 on the year.  We’ve almost come to expect one each game from them and if they get one here, this definitely goes OVER.  Even if they don’t, the two offenses will put points on the board and OVER is the play. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 - Green Bay @ Dallas, Sunday at 4:40 PM ET - ASA's NFL PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR

These are two of the top offenses in the NFL and we don’t see either defense slowing down the opposing offense.  Green Bay ranks 3rd in the NFL in scoring offense and 4th in the NFL in offensive efficiency.  Dallas ranks 5th in scoring offense and 3rd in offensive efficiency.  With these two offenses facing middle to lower of the pack defenses we don’t think either team scores less than 24 points in this one and that’s worst case scenario.  That would be 48 total points as a worst case in our opinion (but obviously it couldn’t end in a 24-24 tie) and that’s just 4.5 points from where this total sits.  Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in 5 consecutive games while Dallas hit 30 points or more 6 times this year, including vs Green Bay in their first meeting.  Not only has GB hit 30 on a consistent basis, they did so against very good defense scoring 38 vs NY Giants, Minnesota, AND Seattle down the stretch.  Jordy Nelson is out for the Packers but this team is definitely equipped to keep rolling without him.  Randall Cobb is back and full strength and Devante Adams has emerged as one of the better WR’s in the league.  Also TE Jared Cook is finally healthy and he gives Rodgers another downfield threat.  Nelson went out early in last week’s game vs NYG and Green Bay was still able to put up 38 points on one of the top defenses in the NFL.  Both of these offenses are capable of scoring 30 or more in this game.  Both of these defenses, as we stated, are middle to lower of the pack with Dallas ranking 14th in total defense and Green Bay ranking 22nd.  The Packer defense has done a better job of keeping teams out of the endzone during their 7 game winning streak but a closer look reveals they have not played ONE top 10 offense (efficiency wise) over that span.  They were extremely fortunate last week as the Giants (a bad offense) put up 200 yards in the first half but blew numerous scoring chances and had only 6 points.  The last top 10 offense GB played was Washington who put up 42 on them.  In fact if you break down the full season, Green Bay played four games vs teams that ended the season with a top 10 offense (efficiency).  Those games were vs Dallas, Atlanta, Tennessee, and Washington.  In those games GB allowed 30, 33, 47, and 42 points respectively.  Now let’s do the same with the Dallas defense.  They were in four games as well vs top 10 offenses vs Green Bay, Washington (twice), and Pittsburgh.  In those games they allowed 16, 23, 26, and 30 points respectively.  That 16 vs GB the first time around was an aberration in our mind.  First of all the Packers were struggling mightily at that time and they still put up 374 yards (Dallas had 424 yards) which would normally equate to 28 points based on Green Bay’s yards per point numbers on the year.  These two both struggle to slow down opposing QB’s which plays right into a high scoring game.  Rodgers is red hot and he’s facing a Dallas defense that has allowed opposing QB’s to complete 67% of their passes which is the 2nd WORST in the NFL ahead of only Detroit.  What did Rodgers and Green Bay do against Detroit?  They topped 30 points both times.  Green Bay’s defensive backfield has been decimated by injuries.  They have guys starting that would normally not have even seen the field this year.  The Packer defense is allowing opposing QB’s to hit on 64% of their attempts which is 21st in the league.  With their very good running game (#1 in the NFL) who rushed for nearly 200 yards on GB in the first game, that will open up easy passes for Prescott who completed 67% for 250 yards and 3 TD’s in the first meeting.  Lastly, when these two teams were supposed to be in high scoring games this year, they were.  Dallas had 2 totals set in the 50’s this year and both games went OVER the number.  Green Bay had 3 totals set in the 50’s and all three of those games went OVER as well.  We envision the offenses completely controlling this game.  It will be a back and forth type game with a “whoever has the ball last will win” type scenario.  This total is set high but it’s there for a reason.  The conditions for scoring will be perfect in Jerry World and this one gets into the 60’s and goes well OVER this number.   

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 45.5 Points - Miami @ Pittsburgh, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET

The weather will be very cold in this one but the winds shouldn’t be much of a factor.  The Steelers should be rested and ready to go offensively as their 3 top weapons on that side of the ball (Roethlisberger, Bell, and Brown) all sat out last week at home vs Cleveland.  With those 3 in the line up, Pitt remains one of the top offensive teams in the NFL.  In fact, when Roethlisberger started at QB, the Black & Gold scored 24, 43, 31, 30, 24, and 31 points at home for an average of 31 PPG.  Some of those impressive outputs were against top defenses as well (31 vs Baltimore, 43 vs KC, and 24 vs NY Giants).  Speaking of defenses, Miami’s isn’t very good ranking 29th in the NFL in total defense, 30th vs the rush, and allow 24 PPG.  Not only are they not very good, they look like they are wearing down a bit.  Miami’s defense has been on field for 153 plays the last 2 weeks, allowed 64 points and 985 yards!  Pitt will also be on a mission offensively after one of their worst performances of the season in a 30-15 loss @ Miami back in early October.  Roethlisberger was injured during that game and then had to sit out the following game vs New England.  Pitt will score here.  Miami’s offense didn’t look very good last week vs New England, but the fact is QB Moore has looked very good in his 3 starts.  He led the Fins to 34 points in each of his first two starts and he’s thrown for 640 and 8 TD’s in his 3 games under center.  Most don’t view Miami as a solid offensive team but the fact is they are.  They average 23 PPG and are 7th in the NFL putting up 5.8 YPP (same as Pittsburgh).  The Steeler defense is nothing special.  They’ve allowed 20 or more points in 8 of their last 11 games and they only teams that were held under that mark were terrible offenses (Cleveland, NY Jets, and Indy with Luck out).  Miami put up 30 and nearly 500 yards in the first meeting and while we don’t expect that here, we definitely think the Fins reach the 20’s which will be enough to push this OVER.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 43.5 Points - Detroit @ Seattle, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET

Weather shouldn’t be an issue here with light winds and temps in the mid to upper 30’s.  Detroit’s defense went through a stretch where they were playing solid football allowing 20 points or fewer in 8 consecutive games.  That run now seems to be history as this defense could be wearing out a bit.  Over their last 2 games vs Dallas & Green Bay they’ve been shredded for 73 points and nearly 900 total yards.  They’ve also managed only 2 sacks total over the last 2 games which means they will probably have all kinds of trouble getting to one of the most mobile QB’s in the NFL this weekend in Russell Wilson.  The Seattle defense simply isn’t what it used to be.  They’ve picked up a few key injuries late in the season including safety Earl Thomas.  This defense has allowed 38, 34, and 23 points in three of their last four games (all with Thomas out of the line up).  The only team they shut down during that stretch was the Rams with rookie Jared Goff at QB.  We think Detroit’s passing game, with QB Stafford having his best season of his career, can put some points on the board.  Seattle’s offense will do the same.  While the Seahawks struggled at times to score on the road, that wasn’t the case at home.  After the opening game stinker at home vs Miami, this Seattle team rattled off 37, 26, 31, 26, 40, 24, and 31 points in their last 7 home tilts.  That’s an average of 31 PPG and many of those teams had much better overall defenses that Detroit.  The Lions defense, despite their nice run we spoke of above, has allowed opponents to average 6 YPP which ranks them 29th in the NFL.  Seattle will score here and Detroit will have to keep up.  With the Seahawk defense not as staunch as it once was, we think Detroit will do just that.  This is a fairly low total and we grab the OVER.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 42.5, Cleveland @ Pittsburgh, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC NORTH TOTAL OF THE YEAR

The Steelers will sit their 3 top offensive weapons in this game with QB Roethlisberger, RB Bell, and WR Brown all resting.  Pitt won the AFC North by beating Baltimore last week and they are locked into the #3 playoff spot in the AFC.  We look for the Steelers to be ultra conservative on offense.  They have nothing to play for and while they want to win this game, they shouldn’t need to do much offensively to accomplish that.  Landry Jones has started one game this season and the Steelers scored 16 in that game.  Jones has been the Pitt starter three times in his career and they have averaged 18 PPG in those games and that was with Bell & Brown in the line up.  Look for Pitt to grind this one out by running the ball a lot and letting their defense control the Browns.  Cleveland is off their first win of the season beating San Diego 20-17.  That was the first time the Browns offense reached 20 points since way back on October 30th.  They had gone 6 straight games scoring 13 points or fewer entering last week.  Even with their 20 point “outburst” last week, they still only put up 251 total yards in that game.  The Browns scored just 9 points in their first game vs Pittsburgh on just 209 total yards.  Cleveland ranks 31st in scoring and 31st in total offense and we don’t expect their offense to magically come alive here no matter who is at QB (Robert Griffin III or Cody Kessler).  This match up has gone UNDER the total in 7 of the last 8 meetings and Cleveland has been held to 14 points or less in 17 of the last 22 meetings with Pittsburgh.  The only chance this has of going OVER the total is if Pitt goes off on offense.  With their top weapons out and what is expected to be a conservative game plan, we just don’t see that happening.  Take the UNDER in this AFC North battle.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points - Detroit @ Dallas, Monday at 8:30 PM ET

The Lions defense has really stepped it up late in the season holding 8 straight opponents to 20 points or less.  Their offense hasn’t done much during that stretch either as they have averaged just 18 PPG over their last 8 games.  The Lions simply are not the potent offense we saw a few years ago as they average only 335 YPG which ranks them 23rd in the NFL.  Dallas comes into this game having already clinched the AFC East AND home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  They do not plan on resting their starters but we do expect a heavy dose of “conservative” football on offense.  The Boys will be fine with running the ball as much as possible and getting out of this one with no injuries.  Dallas leads the league in rushing attempts at 32 per game and rushing percentage with 50% of their play calls being running plays.  That eats clock which is conducive to the UNDER.  The Cowboys shouldn’t run wild on Detroit either as the Lions rank 12th in the NFL allowing just 98 YPG on the ground.  The Dallas defense has improved drastically throughout the season and they have allowed only 4 opponents to top 20 points this season.  These two have been UNDER teams all season long combining for a 19-9 UNDER record.  With this line rising to 46 at some spots we go against the move and take the value with the UNDER tonight.