Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-06-21 | UL-Monroe v. Texas State -3.5 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas State minus the points over Louisiana-Monroe at 3 pm et on Saturday. Texas State found itself in the wrong place at the wrong time last week as it was blown out 45-0 on the road against Louisiana-Lafayette. Here, the Bobcats have a prime opportunity to 'get right' at home against a Louisiana-Monroe squad that is 'punching above its weight class' at 4-4 on the season. The Warhawks have stunningly won a pair of games outright as 20+ point underdogs this season. I think the bloom is off the rose now, however, following last week's 31-point drubbing at the hands of Appalachian State. Now they have to stay on the road for a second straight week to face a Texas State squad that believe it or not still has an outside shot at reaching Bowl eligibility (if it wins out). Of course, winning out is highly-unlikely with a date at Coastal Carolina still on the schedule. That's in a couple of weeks though. Here, I look for the Bobcats to take their frustrations out on the Warhawks after stepping up in class and dropping back-to-back double-digit losses against Georgia State and Louisiana-Lafayette. Keep in mind, Texas State has taken Baylor down to the wire while also defeating South Alabama here at home this season. Prior to their last two games, the Bobcats had scored 20+ points in each of their last six games. They've at least played with a little more consistency than Louisiana-Monroe, which has been on a wild, roller-coaster ride all season. Note that Texas State took last year's meeting between these two teams by 21 points, on the road no less. They say revenge is a dish best served at home. I don't see the Warhawks getting that revenge in hostile territory on Saturday. Take Texas State (10*). |
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11-06-21 | Lightning v. Senators +1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ottawa +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 2:05 pm et on Saturday. The Senators are coming off one of their worst performances of the season in a 5-1 loss to the Golden Knights on Thursday. It shouldn't be difficult for them to get back up for this one, however, as they host the defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning on Saturday afternoon. While the two teams didn't meet last season due to Covid, the Sens have actually held their own against the mighty Bolts in recent years, going 9-3 in the last 12 meetings when factoring in the +1.5 goal. Here, we'll note that the Sens are 5-1 in their last six home games after giving up five goals or more in their previous contest and a perfect 4-0 the last four times they've played at home off a loss by three goals or more. The Lightning are coming off an overtime loss in Toronto that also saw them lose key defenseman Mikhail Sergachev to a suspension due to a hit to the head of Mitch Marner. Take Ottawa +1.5 goals (6*). |
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11-06-21 | Liberty v. Ole Miss -8 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ole Miss minus the points over Liberty at 12 noon et on Saturday. This line has moved considerably over the course of the week, leaving Ole Miss in playable range as we approach kickoff on Saturday. Give Liberty credit. It has played the schedule in front of it and has done it well, winning seven of nine games to date. But let's also keep things in perspective. The Flames seven wins this season include victories against FCS squad Campbell and three of the weakest teams in FBS in Old Dominion, Louisiana-Monroe and UMass, with two of those contests coming at home. Ole Miss, meanwhile, opened the season with a tough non-conference matchup against Louisville (it won 43-24) and after a couple of non-conference cupcakes, the Rebels have faced a brutal SEC schedule that included games against Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn. It enters this game off a tough but not unexpected 31-20 road loss against Auburn last week. To me, this looks like an ideal 'get right' spot for Ole Miss before it gets back to the SEC gauntlet with a home date with Texas A&M next week. The fact that the Flames are a seven-win team and scored a whopping 62 points in last week's victory should help keep the Rebels focus where it needs to be this week and I expect them to win this one going away. Take Ole Miss (9*). |
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11-05-21 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Ducks | 1-3 | Loss | -160 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 goals over Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Coyotes remain winless on the season but after holding each of their last three opponents to three goals or less, and facing a Ducks squad that's 'fat and happy' off consecutive wins by at least two goals, I believe Arizona is well-positioned to at the very least take this one down to the wire on Friday night. Keep in mind, the Coyotes have won three straight and six of their last seven meetings with the Ducks. To find the last time Anaheim defeated Arizona by more than a single goal you would have to go back nine meetings, all the way to January 2020. Here, we'll note that the Ducks are 0-13 when coming off two wins in their last three games going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 2.6 goals in that spot. In fact, they're a miserable 13-36 in their last 49 games when coming off a win, as is the case here, outscored by 1.0 goal on average in that situation. The last six times Anaheim has played at home off a win by three goals or more it has been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals, averaging just 1.5 goals itself in that spot. The Coyotes have been on the road for a while - this game will wrap up a six-game road trip in which they haven't secured a single point. After a couple of much-needed days off, I think we see the Coyotes come up with their best effort of the season on Friday night. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (5*). |
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11-05-21 | Spurs -3.5 v. Magic | 102-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Friday. In this battle of two-win teams, I simply feel that the Spurs are the superior team and just as they did in a 26-point rout in San Antonio back on October 20th, I look for them to prove it on the floor on Friday night. Note that the Magic are a pitiful 14-30 ATS in their last 44 games as a home underdog, outscored by an average margin of 11.9 points in that situation. Worse still, Orlando is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent, as is the case here following that 20+ point loss in San Antonio earlier this season. Oddly enough, the Magic have been outscored by an identical 11.9-point margin on average in that situation. The Spurs are coming of consecutive losses including a narrow one-point setback against the Mavericks last time out. Note that they own a stellar 26-14 ATS mark in their last 40 road games, including a 120-97 victory as a seven-point favorite here in Orlando last April. Take San Antonio (8*). |
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11-05-21 | Nets v. Pistons +10.5 | 96-90 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the Pistons last night as they failed to show up in the second half in an 11-point loss to the 76ers. Call me crazy but the fact that they actually 'only' lost by 11 points despite scoring just 32 second half points was encouraging. Here, I simply feel they're catching way too many points as they host a 'fat and happy' Nets squad coming off three consecutive victories with the last two coming in blowout fashion. Interestingly, the Pistons are 16-5 ATS when coming off three consecutive losses going back to last season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.3 points in that spot. While they're just 22-37 ATS the last 59 points they've been revenging a same-season loss against an opponent, that doesn't tell the whole story as they've been outscored by just 6.1 points on average in that situation - obviously a considerably shorter number than the pointspread we're working with here tonight. In two meetings between these two teams in Detroit last season, the Pistons won 122-111 and lost 113-111. Brooklyn has yet to win three straight games ATS this season and I'm willing to bet they fail to accomplish that feat here. Take Detroit (7*). |
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11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +6 | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. This is an ideal spot to fade the 'fat and happy' 76ers as they come off four straight wins, all at home. Philadelphia has had to deal with some key absences lately with Tobias Harris missing time due to Covid protocols and Joel Embiid dealing with a nagging knee injury. Of course, there's no guarantee Embiid plays tonight in a back-to-back spot but we'll make this play on the assumption he is able to go. The Pistons have lost back-to-back games in blowout fashion. Those came in tough spots at Brooklyn and at home against the Bucks. Here, they're home and waiting for the Sixers, noting the last time these two teams squared off at Little Caesar's Arena last January it was no contest as Detroit rolled to a 119-104 victory as a 4.5-point underdog. Here, we're getting an even more favorable number. Look for the Pistons to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Detroit (10*). |
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11-03-21 | Raptors v. Wizards -3 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Toronto at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We successfully faded the Wizards in their last game as they fell by seven points in Atlanta. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Wiz as they return home to host a Raptors squad they had their way with earlier this season. Toronto is coming off a huge win in New York on Monday, fueled by a career night from O.G. Anunoby. I'm not counting on a repeat performance here. Note that while the Raps have now won four games in a row, here they find themselves in a spot that has seen them go a miserable 1-9 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 10.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Washington is an excellent positive momentum play as it has posted an incredible 15-1 ATS record after winning three of its last four games over the last season-plus, outscoring opponents by 5.9 points on average in that spot. Of course, these two teams met in the season-opener with the Wizards rolling to a 98-83 victory. Washington has now taken consecutive meetings against the Raptors after an extended run of futility in the series. While the Raps have a rather thin margin of error in my opinion, the Wiz have shown the ability to win in a variety of ways. This past Saturday they prevailed in overtime against the Celtics despite shooting a woeful 36.5% in the game. Last week they beat the Hawks here at home even with Atlanta shooting a scorching 54.5% from the field. As for the Raps, they've only managed to outscore the opposition by a combined 21 points during their current four-game winning streak. They've shot better than 48% from the field just once this season and needed to knock down every shot in that game as they won by just a single point, at home no less, against the lowly Magic. Here, we'll play against Toronto supported by a situation that has gone 74-39 ATS in which we fade underdog sides coming off consecutive outright underdog wins playing for the sixth time (or more) in the last 10 days. That situation has gone 10-3 ATS over the last three seasons. Take Washington (10*). |
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11-02-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Astros | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 34 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta +1.5 runs over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I love the way this spot sets up for the Braves with an insurance run in our back pocket as they hand the ball to Max Fried in hopes of making good in their second attempt at clinching a World Series title. Fried didn't pitch well in his first start in this series but I'm confident that he can bounce back strong here, noting that he still owns a terrific 3.65 ERA and 1.13 WHIP on the road this season and better still, a 3.49 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in nighttime starts. The Braves are a terrific 64-41 when coming off a loss going back to last season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.6 runs along the way. We haven't seen the Braves drop consecutive games since a four-game losing streak from September 14th to 18th. To find the last time they lost back-to-back games by two or more runs you would have to go all the way back to June 23rd and 24th. Atlanta wasn't quite able to break through against Astros starter Luis Garcia back in Game 3 of this series but it's not as if he was dominant. Garcia lasted only 3 2/3 innings, allowing three hits and four walks but only one earned run. While Sunday's game ended up lopsided in nature, I'm expecting tightly-contested baseball from here on out, making grabbing the insurance run attractive in Game 6. Take Atlanta +1.5 runs (5*). |
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11-01-21 | Bulls v. Celtics -1 | Top | 128-114 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Monday. It's still very early in the season but the Celtics find themselves in the Atlantic Division basement. Needless to say, this is a big game as they look to snap a two-game skid at home against the division-rival Bulls. Note that the C's also opened the season with consecutive losses but responded with a double-digit victory in Houston (without Jaylen Brown) in their next game (we won with Boston in that game). Here, they'll face the Bulls with double-revenge after dropping their last two matchups with Chicago last season. You would have to go back to 2017 to find the last time they lost back-to-back meetings with the Bulls. The next time they faced them they delivered a 17-point beatdown. Here, we'll back Boston noting that it has gone 23-10 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS losses over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 7.9 points on average in that situation. Take Boston (10*). |
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11-01-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -5.5 | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta moneyline over Washington at 7:30 pm et on Monday. While the Wizards are off to a blazing 5-1 start to the season I look for them to get tripped up by the Hawks on Monday night. Atlanta is coming off consecutive losses but both of those were on the road, including a 122-111 setback against the same Wizards it will face on Monday. Here we'll note that favorites priced between -165 and -500 revenging a same-season loss against an opponent that are coming off a 20-point loss suffered on the road, as is the case with the Hawks, have gone 26-1 SU over the last five seasons. Atlanta was never really competitive in Saturday's blowout loss in Philadelphia, perhaps the product of playing a third road game in four nights at this early stage of the season when conditioning, or lack thereof, can be an issue. This is one of those difficult one-game trips for the Wizards before they return home to play their next three games. Off a double-overtime win over the Celtics on Saturday this is a classic letdown spot. Atlanta has won four straight home meetings with Washington. To find the last Wizards victory here in Atlanta you would have to go back to December of 2018. Take Atlanta moneyline (6*). |
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10-30-21 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma -19 | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma minus the points over Texas Tech at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Texas Tech has faced a fairly easy schedule in recent weeks, but still only managed to go 2-2 SU since suffering a 70-35 rout at the hands of Texas in the final week of September. Now I believe the Red Raiders are ripe for another blowout loss as they catch Oklahoma in the wrong place the wrong time. The Sooners did win last week, but it wasn't pretty. They only managed to get past Kansas on a late surge, ultimately prevailing by a 35-23 score. Keep in mind, the last time we saw the Sooners play at home they rolled up over 500 yards of total offense in a 21-point rout of TCU. I believe they're well-positioned to post another rout here, noting they've put up a whopping 117 points in their last two meetings with Texas Tech. Here, we'll back the Sooners noting that they've gone 29-15 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit win over a conference opponent, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 22.4 points. Take Oklahoma (8*). |
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10-30-21 | Cincinnati -26 v. Tulane | 31-12 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Tulane at 12 noon et on Saturday. You would be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse than Tulane right now. The wheels have completely come off since the Green Wave opened the season with such promise after taking Oklahoma down to the wire in Norman before dismantling FCS squad Morgan State 69-20. Since then, Tulane has gone 0-5 SU and ATS. We successfully faded the Green Wave last week as they fell by 29 points against SMU. Now they face an even tougher challenge as they host second-ranked Cincinnati on Saturday, and likely do so without starting QB Michael Pratt. Pratt has been one of the only good things Tulane has had going for it as he has at least given the offense a pulse with his dual-threat ability. The Bearcats enter this game off a subpar performance against Navy last week. Of course, facing the Midshipmen is always a unique experience with their triple-option attack. Cincinnati actually did a good job of limiting the Navy offense in that game but got bogged down offensively itself. Here, I expect to see QB Desmond Ridder and his incredible supporting cast go off against a hapless Tulane defense that has been lit up for 4.6 yards per rush and 8.6 yard per pass attempt this season. The fact that Tulane has given up 40 and 55 points over its last two games is telling when you consider the offense turned the football over only twice. It's not as if the Green Wave have been handing the opposition a bunch of extra possessions. Look for the Bearcats to make the most of what they're given on Saturday as they bounce back from just their second ATS loss of the season (the first came as 36.5-point favorites against FCS squad Murray State back in Week 2). Take Cincinnati (9*). |
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10-28-21 | Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 28 m | Show |
NFL TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Arizona at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Everything seems to be stacked against the Packers in this one with the news coming down that both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are on the Covid-19 list and unlikely to play on Thursday. That adds to an already impressive (not in a good way) list of players slated to miss, including CB Jaire Alexander and pass-rush specialist Za'Darius Smith. However, last time I checked, the Packers still had QB Aaron Rodgers and do-it-all RB Aaron Jones. We're talking about a team that has had to deal with Adams absence due to injury before and on those occasions, Rodgers has actually thrived. I really like the setup here with the Packers coming off a less-than-dominant performance against Washington last week (they still won by two touchdowns) and the Cardinals fresh off a complete dismantling of the lowly Texans at home. Here, we find the Packers in a terrific situation that has gone 55-22 ATS over the last 10 seasons in which we fade favorites priced between -3.5 and -10 that outscore the opposition by an average of 10+ points per game and come off a contest in which they allowed 14 points or less. Also note that the Cardinals are 0-6 ATS the last six times they've played at home after outgaining their previous opponent by 100+ total yards over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 1.8 points on average in that situation. They're a miserable 3-16 ATS the last 19 times that situation has come up but with the total yards advantage adjusted to 150. As for the Packers, they're a solid 12-4 ATS the last 16 times they've played with six or less days' rest, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.7 points in that spot. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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10-28-21 | South Florida v. East Carolina -9.5 | Top | 14-29 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
AAC First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on East Carolina first half minus the points over South Florida at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I like the fact that we're only being asked to lay single-digits with the Pirates in the first half in this key late October home game. East Carolina is coming off a hard-fought overtime loss at Houston last week - its second straight heart-breaking loss after falling by a 20-16 score at UCF in its previous game. Everything is still in front of the Pirates, however, as they certainly have a path to six wins and a potential Bowl game but there's no denying they need the win on Thursday against South Florida to make that happen. We actually won with the Bulls in last Saturday's rout of Temple. It wasn't a clean performance by any means, but USF was the lesser of two evils and managed to walk away with its second victory of the season. Unlike ECU, USF doesn't have much of a shot at going Bowling this season with a difficult schedule still ahead and no margin for error. The problem here is, the Bulls are dealing with a number of injuries and playing on a short week, on the road no less, doesn't help matters. With a defense that has been absolutely gashed both against the run and the pass, I have a hard time envisioning the Bulls offense, which could be led by multi-program disappointment Cade Fortin, struggling to get off on the right foot in this one. Note that the Bulls are a miserable 4-16 ATS as first half underdogs over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 15.5 points. Worse still, they're 0-6 ATS in the first half when coming off a win over the same stretch, averaging a paltry 2.7 points while being outscored by an average margin of 20.8 points. On the flip side, ECU has outscored the opposition by 13.7 points on average in the first half at home this season. Take ECU first half (10*). |
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10-27-21 | Cavs v. Clippers -8 | 92-79 | Loss | -101 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Cleveland at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Cavaliers stunned the Nuggets in Denver on Monday, notching their second straight win to even their record at 2-2 on the season. That's actually a better record than that of the Clippers, who check into this one sitting at 1-2. Los Angeles is, however, coming off its first victory and it was an impressive one as it rolled to a 30-point rout of the Blazers on Monday. I like the Clips to keep the good vibes going for at least one more game on Wednesday. The Cavs are off to a fine start but they're still playing with a very slim margin for error as far as I'm concerned. Keep in mind, in their first two games this season - both losses - they shot better than 50% from the field, yet still fell by double-digit margins. In their last two contests they benefited from off shooting nights from their opponents with the Hawks and Nuggets knocking down just 38.4% and 40.7% of their shots, respectively. The Clippers dropped their first two games but both of those were tough, on the road against Golden State and at home against Memphis. They were competitive in both of those games, losing by just two and six points. Note that the Cavs are a woeful 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games against Pacific Division opponents, outscored by an average margin of 18.6 points in those contests. Despite Monday's victory, they're still just 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games as a road underdog, outscored by 10.8 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Clips have outscored the opposition by an average margin of 14.7 points in their last eight home games against Central Division opponents. They won by 17 points as nine-point favorites the last time they faced the Cavs right here in L.A. last February. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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10-27-21 | Hawks v. Pelicans +6 | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Hawks have certainly had the Pelicans number, taking five straight meetings in this series going back to the start of 2018, including both matchups (in blowout fashion) last season. I believe the Pelicans are well-positioned to put up a fight on Wednesday, however, as they return home after posting their first victory of the season in Minnesota on Monday. The Hawks are coming off a win and cover against the lowly Pistons on Monday but this is a team that has shown a fairly strong home-road dichotomy over the years. Note that while they check in a perfect 2-0 at home this season they dropped their lone road game, falling by a 101-95 score in Cleveland. In fact, they're just 32-48 ATS on the road over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.8 points. The Pelicans on the other hand are in one of their most favorable spots here, and that's playing at home off an outright underdog victory, having outscored the opposition by an average margin of 5.7 points while averaging a whopping 123.9 points in that situation over the last 2+ seasons (13-game sample size). We've also seen them outscore the opposition by 4.2 points on average after posting consecutive ATS wins over the last 2+ seasons (14-game sample size). New Orleans is obviously still without Zion Williamson but that's certainly been factored into the line (note that the Pelicans were +1.5 the last time they hosted the Hawks and only +3.5 the last time they played in Atlanta - both games were played last April). Take New Orleans (10*). |
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10-24-21 | Celtics -5 v. Rockets | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Houston at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Celtics are off to an 0-2 start and coming off an ugly 115-83 home loss against the Raptors on Friday night. Meanwhile the Rockets have split their first two games and are fresh off a 124-91 home win over the Thunder on Friday. Here, we find the Celtics in a situation that has gone 36-13 ATS over the last five seasons, as they come off an upset loss as a favorite facing an opponent that's coming off a home win in which it scored 110+ points. Teams in that situation have outscored opponents by 13.1 points on average over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Celtics are 22-10 ATS after dropping two or more straight games ATS over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 7.9 points on average in that spot. Last year, the Celtics were favored by 11 points in their lone stop in Houston and won by 27. Take Boston (8*). |
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10-24-21 | Lions v. Rams -16 | Top | 19-28 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 1 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Detroit at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Lions can't stop the run. They can't stop the pass. They have an offense that can't play from behind. It's clearly a recipe for disaster as they head across the country to face the Rams on Sunday afternoon. You can throw motivation out the window - we've all heard enough about the Jared Goff-Matt Stafford angle in this one. The simple fact is, the Lions offense is broken - as evidenced by the fact that they've been shut out in the first half in three of their last four games and have managed to score no more than 17 points in any of their last five contests since an anomaly of a performance in the second half against the 49ers way back in Week 1. QB Jared Goff is firmly planted in the hot seat right now and I'm not convinced that head coach Dan Campbell calling him out publicly after last week's game will lead to positive results. In fact, I'm quite certain of the opposite. The Rams 'got right' on a two-game road trip through Seattle and New York and now return home for this absolute smash spot. Los Angeles is well-armed to dismantle a fading Lions defense while the Rams own defense should feast on a Lions offense that has few weapons, some of which are banged-up right now including TE T.J. Hockenson. This is the continuation of a dream three-game stretch for the Rams which began with a 27-point rout of the Giants last week. I'm confident we'll see them roll by 20+ in all three games - a stretch that concludes with a trip to Houston on Halloween. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-24-21 | Falcons v. Dolphins +2.5 | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm not buying into the Falcons for a second. Their two wins this season have come on a last-second field goal against the hapless Giants and in London against the lowly Jets. Yes, Miami is at a scheduling disadvantage here after playing in London last Sunday - where it fell to the Jaguars, but the Fins are actually getting healthier in this spot with CB Xavien Howard expected to return. Lost in last week's defeat was the progress made by the Dolphins offense with QB Tua Tagovailoa back at the helm as he threw for 354 yards and as a team Miami turned the football over only once. It wasn't really a bad performance from the Miami defense either as it held the Jags to 84 rush yards and 25-of-41 passing for 312 yards through the air. Take Miami (8*). |
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10-23-21 | Islanders v. Coyotes +1.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -170 | 31 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 goals over New York at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Coyotes +1.5 on Thursday and it wasn't close as they fell to the Oilers by a 5-1 score. I do look for them to finally bounce back on Saturday, however, as they host the Islanders. Note that Arizona has gone a perfect 5-0 the last five times it has played at home after allowing four goals or more in consecutive games, outscoring opponents by 2.2 goals on average in that spot. They're also a solid 8-1 the last nine times they've come off consecutive home losses, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that situation. The Isles meanwhile are 2-10 the last 12 times they've played on the road off consecutive road contests, outscored by 1.1 goals on average. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (5*). |
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10-23-21 | UTSA v. Louisiana Tech +6.5 | Top | 45-16 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over UTSA at 7 pm et on Saturday. Texas-San Antonio has earned a national top-25 ranking for the first time in program history but I expect its stay to be short-lived. Wins are never easy to come by for teams that travel to Ruston to face the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech, regardless the state of the program. Here, I question who the Roadrunners have really beat this year? The wins have come against Illinois, Lamar, Middle Tennessee, Memphis, UNLV, Western Kentucky and Rice. Even the 'name' programs in that bunch are mired in down years. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech checks in 2-4 on the season but as I mentioned, it has been competitive once again here in Ruston, going 2-1 with its lone loss coming by two points on a touchdown with six seconds left in the fourth quarter against still-undefeated and nationally-ranked SMU back on September 18th. The Bulldogs laid an egg on the road against UTEP last week and that's a big reason why we're dealing with such a generous helping of points here. Keep in mind, just two games back, Louisiana Tech went on the road and gave N.C. State all it could handle in a seven-point loss. There's still a clear path for Louisiana Tech to reach a Bowl game this year as I count five winnable games left on its schedule - including this one. Remember, this same matchup produced a narrow 27-26 result in favor of UTSA last year. Expect another tightly-contested affair here. Take Louisiana Tech (10*). |
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10-23-21 | Temple v. South Florida -2 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 32 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Florida minus the points over Temple at 7 pm et on Saturday. We won with an easy fade of Temple last week in Cincinnati and I won't hesitate to go back to the well at a much more reasonable price as the Owls stay on the road to face South Florida on Saturday. This one has pretty much fallen into our laps with the Bulls falling to under a field goal favorite. There's really nothing curious about the line. Temple is a respectable 3-3 on the season while USF checks in a miserable 1-5. But let's keep things in perspective here. The Owls wins have come against Akron, FCS squad Wagner and Memphis. Yes, the win over Memphis could be considered somewhat impressive but that had everything to do with the Tigers jumping out to a big lead early and thinking they had the win in the bag, without a legitimate defense to back it up. South Florida has faced a brutal schedule, going up against N.C. State, BYU and SMU on the road and Florida, Florida A&M (its lone win) and Tulsa here at home. Credit the Bulls for coming out of their bye week and giving a quality Tulsa squad all it could handle in a one-point loss last week. This is essentially a 'must-win' game for Temple if it wants to keep its Bowl hopes alive and I like that as it's certainly being factored into the line in our favor with the Bulls. South Florida doesn't have the benefit of carrying the same (false) hope but should get up for this winnable game before the schedule gets tougher again down the stretch. Take South Florida (9*). |
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10-22-21 | Washington -17.5 v. Arizona | 21-16 | Loss | -108 | 56 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Arizona at 10:30 pm et on Friday. Arizona has quietly been one of the worst teams in the country this season and I don't envision a sudden turnaround against Washington on Friday night. The Wildcats didn't score a single point in last week's 34-0 drubbing at the hands of a fairly weak Colorado squad. Arizona has yet to win a game this season - in fact, it has yet to break 20 points in a game. QBs Gunner Cruz and Jordan McCloud are sidelined for the remainder of the season leaving the starting job to an ineffective Will Plummer. The only reason the Wildcats defense hasn't posted truly embarrassing numbers is because they haven't faced many explosive offensive opponents. Still, it's notable that they allowed 271 rush yards against San Diego State and a whopping 329 yards on the ground against UCLA. The Washington ground game has been held down for the most part but that should change here. Remember, the Huskies did run for 200 yards against Arkansas State and 176 yards against Oregon State earlier this season so they're certainly capable of salting this game away should they build a considerable lead. We can expect the Huskies to be afforded some extra offensive possessions in this contest, noting that Arizona simply hasn't taken care of the football, turning it over a whopping 12 times over its last four games. Washington got a big boost on the defensive side of the football with extraordinary pass rusher Zion Tupuola-Fetui getting on the field for 10 plays against UCLA in his long-awaited return from a torn achilles. He's expected to see more action this week and should wreak havoc against a very beatable Arizona offensive front. The Huskies defense is loaded with talent and experience but hasn't necessarily lived up to expectations this season. With that being said, teams that don't boast much of a ground game don't have much luck against Washington, as the Huskies have held opposing passing games to just 5.4 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average 7.2 yppa. While they have given up a less than impressive 4.7 yards per rush, that's against opponents that average 4.8 ypr. Despite a rough 2-4 start to the season, there's still a path for the Huskies to reach a Bowl game with four games left on their schedule. It goes without saying they need the win here, however. I'm confident they'll get it, in convincing fashion. Take Washington (10*). |
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10-21-21 | San Jose State v. UNLV +5 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 27 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Week. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over San Jose State at 11 pm et on Thursday. We won with San Jose State as it gave San Diego State everything it could handle in a double-overtime loss last week. In fact, I've been fairly high on the Spartans for much of the season. With that being said, I'm going to go the other way and fade SJSU as it hits the road to face winless UNLV at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Thursday night. There's no denying the fact that the season has been somewhat of a disaster for San Jose State. The Spartans have quite simply been unable to recapture the magic that led them to a Mountain West Conference championship last season. Last week's loss was a back-breaker both physically and emotionally. While there's no question the Spartans absolutely need to get a win over the Rebels here, desperation doesn't always lead to victory. The schedule won't get any easier from here and at this point, San Jose State might be hard-pressed to simply reach a Bowl game. UNLV checks in 0-6 on the season but it continues to play hard, with its last three and four of six losses this season coming by eight points or less. The Rebels schedule has been tough to be sure, you could argue this is only their second winnable game of the campaign (they lost their season-opener 35-33 as a 1.5-point favorite against FCS squad Eastern Washington). There was certainly no shame in taking better-than-expected Fresno State and Texas-San Antonio teams down to the wire (on the road no less) before dropping a narrow 28-24 decision against Utah State last week. We've seen flashes of brilliance from the Rebels on both sides of the football throughout the campaign but consistency, or a lack thereof, has been an issue. Here, they should benefit from facing a Spartans squad that has dealt with similar problems, but has been just plain bad for the most part on offense, whether due to injuries or otherwise. They could get QB Nick Starkel back from injury this week but even when he was healthy early in the season, their offense still sputtered. The fact that SJSU only managed to pull out four and six-point victories against Hawaii and New Mexico State respectively is telling. While the Rebels look like they're having a whole lot of fun (take note of the slot machine they have on their sideline for home games at Allegiant Stadium) and making progress, the opposite can be said of the Spartans. Here, I'll note that the Spartans average just 24.5 points and outscore the opposition by a minuscule 0.3 points on average when playing on the road off an ATS win over the last two seasons, as is the case here. That includes an 0-1 ATS mark in that situation this season as they fell by a 30-7 score at USC back in the first week of September. Take UNLV (10*). |
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10-21-21 | Oilers v. Coyotes +1.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 goals over Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. Things haven't gone well for the Coyotes so far this season as they check in 0-3, having been outscored by a wide 17-7 margin. Meanwhile, the Oilers are off to a perfect 3-0 start, having scored a whopping 14 goals. Here, I'll take a flyer on the Coyotes as we're being offered a reasonable price to back them with an insurance goal. Note that Arizona has gone 12-3 and outscored opponents by an impressive margin of 1.4 goals on average when coming off a home loss by two goals or more over the last 2+ seasons. Meanwhile, the Oilers average 2.9 goals per game when playing on the road after scoring three or more goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons and check in allowing 3.5 goals per game while outscoring opponents by just 0.3 goals on average when coming off a home win by four goals or more over the last 2+ seasons. You would have to go back to 2019 to find the last time the Oilers defeated the Coyotes by more than a goal here in Glendale - that's going back four meetings in the desert. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (5*). |
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10-21-21 | Broncos +3 v. Browns | 14-17 | Push | 0 | 32 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Cleveland at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The Browns were already going to be in a tough spot on Thursday night, playing on a short week with the pressure ratcheted up following consecutive losses against the Chargers and Cardinals. Now without QB Baker Mayfield, RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt among others, I don't expect them to bounce back against the Broncos. Denver hasn't been playing well, fresh off three straight losses albeit against tough opposition in the Ravens, Steelers (on the road) and Raiders. Here, the Broncos have an excellent 'get right' matchup against what should be a very limited Browns offense with journeyman QB Case Keenum at the helm and a defense that hasn't been nearly as stout as advertised. Consider this a breakout spot for the Broncos offense while I have plenty of confidence in Vic Fangio's ability to scheme up a gameplan to shut down Cleveland's struggling and undermanned offense. Note that for all of its recent struggles, Denver still checks in a perfect 7-0 ATS when coming off a loss against a division opponent, outscoring opponents by 2.6 points on average in that spot. Take Denver (8*). |
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10-21-21 | Bucks v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 95-137 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Heat had a productive preseason, going 5-1 and getting some new faces acclimated into the lineup while also wisely managing the minutes of all of its key contributors. I look for Miami to get the new season off to a positive start against the defending champion Bucks on Thursday. Milwaukee is of course already 1-0 on the season after an impressive win over the Nets on Tuesday. The win didn't come without a price, however, as Jrue Holliday did suffer a heel injury in the game. He is expected to play on Thursday but it's notable as the Bucks are already dealing with a number of banged-up players (Bobby Portis, Rodney Hood and Donte DiVincenzo are all sidelined). Here, we'll back the Heat noting that despite all of their ups and downs in recent years, they have managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points here at home over the last couple of seasons. I expect them to bring plenty of energy to their home-opener on Thursday and I think they have the talent to back it up. Take Miami (10*). |
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10-20-21 | Celtics v. Knicks -2 | Top | 134-138 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Knicks made massive progress last season, reaching the playoffs before being dumped unceremoniously at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks. I think we'll see New York play with an even bigger chip on its shoulder this season as it looks to take care of unfinished business. Remember, the Knicks gave the Celtics all they could handle and then some last season, winning two of three meetings including a 30-point rout early in the campaign, in Boston no less. The Celtics were never really able to find their footing last season and while I do expect them to fare better here in 2021-22, a slow start could once again be in the cards. The C's are already dealing with Covid-19 quarantine issues as they'll be without Al Horford for this game while Jaylen Brown isn't certain to play but likely will be able to go. The Knicks of course made a big splash in the offseason by acquiring former Celtic Kemba Walker. Walker is no stranger to the Garden from his days with UConn in the Big East. I love the addition of Walker as his scoring should relieve some of the pressure on veteran Derrick Rose who was asked to take on a prominent role over the course of last season. If Walker can elevate the play of the rest of the Knicks young core, the sky really is the limit this season. Here, we'll back the Knicks noting that they've thrived in similar situations as a short home favorite, going 26-7 ATS and outscoring opponents by 6.0 points on average when priced between +3 and -3 over the last season-plus. Better still, that record is 18-3 ATS when only factoring in home games, with New York outscoring opponents by 7.0 points on average. Take New York (10*). |
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10-20-21 | Astros +1.5 v. Red Sox | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston +1.5 runs over Boston at 5:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Astros stunned the Red Sox with a seven-run ninth inning last night - ruining our 'under' ticket in the process - and I look for them to build off of that victory on Wednesday. With struggling veteran Chris Sale taking the ball for Boston, I believe the case can be made that the wrong team is favored in this game. Sale has made two starts in the playoffs. In his first he gave up five earned runs in just an inning of work against the Rays. Earlier in this series against the Astros he lasted only 2 1/3 innings, allowing five hits and a walk while striking out only two in an eventual 5-4 loss. Astros starter Framber Valdez hasn't pitched particularly well in the postseason either but he's faced the Red Sox three times this season and Houston won all three games, including a 7-1 victory in his lone previous start here at Fenway Park (he worked into the eighth inning and allowed just one earned run in that outing). Here, I'll note that the Red Sox are just 33-42 when playing at home after winning two of their last three games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. They're a mediocre 65-66 after winning four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons - also the case here - not holding a scoring edge whatsoever in that situation. Finally, I'll point out that the Red Sox bullpen has taken a real sour turn, having blown four saves without converting a single one over their last seven games. Take Houston +1.5 runs (5*). |
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10-19-21 | Ducks v. Oilers -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton -1.5 goals over Anaheim at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. With the Ducks playing the second of back-to-back games in Alberta and fresh off last night's 3-2 overtime win over the Flames, I'm comfortable laying the extra goal with the Oilers in a favorable spot for the home side on Tuesday night. Note that the Ducks are a miserable 4-21 after a one-goal victory in their most recent game over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that spot. Worse still, Anaheim is 0-12 after winning two of its last three games over the last year, as is the case here, allowing 4.4 goals on average and outscored by an average margin of 2.7 goals in that situation. The Oilers are off to a tremendous start this season, scoring seven goals (they won their first game in a shootout) on a whopping 67 shots on goal. I don't expect them to get complacent in the final game of this three-game homestand, however, noting that they've allowed 85 shots on goal through two games, so there's room for improvement here. Take Edmonton -1.5 goals (6*). |
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10-19-21 | Panthers +1.5 v. Lightning | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. While we're being asked to pay a fairly steep price to grab the insurance goal with the Panthers here, I believe that price could be even higher. Tampa Bay checks in off consecutive road wins over the Red Wings and Capitals, with both of those victories coming by a single goal. Remember, the Lightning opened the season with a resounding thud in a blowout home loss against the Crosby and Malkin-less Penguins. Now the Bolts will need to go forward without superstar Nikita Kucherov for an indefinite period of time. Here, we find Tampa Bay having gone 0-5, outscored by an average margin of 2.4 goals, the last five times it has come off consecutive road wins. The Bolts are also just 23-25 when coming off a one-goal victory over the last 2+ seasons, holding a minuscule 0.1-goal scoring advantage in that situation. Finally, they're 8-15 when checking in off an overtime win over that same stretch, outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals. As for the Panthers, they're off to a perfect 2-0 start and now find themselves in a situation where they average a solid 3.4 goals per game off a win over the last three seasons. They'll give the start to Spencer Knight in goal on Tuesday and I see that as a positive as I do think he has an opportunity to supplant veteran Sergei Bobrovsky as the starter at some point this season. Take Florida +1.5 goals (5*). |
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10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +3.5 | 35-29 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England plus the points over Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This Patriots are in a terrific spot on Sunday as they return home to host the Cowboys who are coming off four straight wins, including a perfect 3-0 homestand. The last time we saw Dallas play on the road, it eked out a 20-17 win over the Chargers in Los Angeles. The Cowboys have only managed to split two road games this season, with both of those games decided by a field goal or less. Another close game should be in order on Sunday. New England was in a clear letdown spot last week on the road against the lowly Texans. Credit the Pats and rookie QB Mac Jones for pulling out a victory even if they didn't manage to cover the lofty pointspread. Here, we find Dallas a long-term loser at 39-59 ATS when playing on the road off a home victory, outscored by 1.4 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Pats are an impressive 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games as a home underdog, including a 1-0 ATS mark this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 points. Take New England (10*). |
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10-17-21 | Texans v. Colts -10 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. There's no reason for the Colts to be down on themselves following an overtime loss to the Ravens on Monday Night Football. If anything, they should bring positive momentum from that game and now find themselves in a smash spot against the Texans, who may not win another game this season (that's not a stretch). Houston fell just short at home against the Patriots last week - who were in a clear flat spot off their matchup with Tom Brady and the Bucs. Now the Texans go into Indianapolis without two key cogs on their offensive line in Justin Britt and Laremy Tunsil. The Colts offense has been quietly effective over the last two weeks, running fot 139 and 123 yards while QB Carson Wentz has come to life, completing 49-of-67 passes for 600 yards over that stretch. With one of the more underrated backfields in the entire NFL, the Colts have the ability to salt this game away should they build a considerable second half lead, as we expect. Take Indianapolis (10*). |
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10-17-21 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Ravens keep finding ways to win and I don't expect the Chargers to be the ones to end their winning streak on Sunday afternoon. Here, we'll fade Los Angeles noting that it has gone a miserable 2-10 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in its last game over the last three seasons. The Browns were set up on a tee for the Chargers last Sunday in Los Angeles yet they needed a fourth quarter rally to earn the win (and cover). We actually won with the Bolts in that contest. Meanwhile, the Ravens had no business winning against the Colts last Monday night but pulling out unlikely wins has been their M.O. this season and here they comfortably find themselves in the second game of a four-game homestand. QB Lamar Jackson is balling out right now and while the Chargers defense offers a considerable challenge, I think he'll be up for it after completing 37-of-43 passes for 437 yards on Monday night. While the talent is there, save for the Raiders and Washington Football Team, the Chargers haven't really been able to stop anyone this season. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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10-16-21 | Arizona State v. Utah +1 | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 36 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah over Arizona State at 10 pm et on Saturday. We won with Arizona State in its 18-point victory over Stanford last week but I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade the Sun Devils here as they head on the road for only the second time this season to face Utah on Saturday night. Keep in mind, Arizona State's lone loss this season came away from home as it fell 27-17 against BYU. The Sun Devils didn't come out of last week's win unscathed as they're dealing with a cluster of injuries on the defensive side of the football. Key DT Jermayne Lole is gone for the season while safety Evan Fields is questionable to play against the Utes on Saturday. Those are only a couple of the walking wounded. Utah continues to make up for lost time after starting the season with two losses in its first three games (the Utes lost those games outright as favorites on the road against BYU and San Diego State). After posting consecutive wins over Washington State and USC and with six very winnable games coming up after this one in Pac-12 play, everything is still in front of the Utes despite their poor start. Note that Utah checks in 12-3 ATS from October on over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 16.5 points along the way. On the flip side, the Sun Devils are a miserable 24-42 ATS the last 66 times they've come off victories in four or five of their last six games, as is the case here (5-1 on the season). Take Utah (9*). |
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10-16-21 | Colorado State -10.5 v. New Mexico | 36-7 | Win | 100 | 33 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado State minus the points over New Mexico at 7 pm et on Saturday. It seems that everyone was down on Colorado State at the start of the season and perhaps for good reason as they opened with a 42-23 loss to FCS squad South Dakota State and followed that up with a defeat at the hands of lowly Vanderbilt. But then a funny thing happened, the Rams upset Toledo 22-6 at the Glass Bowl and proceeded to give top-five ranked Iowa a serious run in an eventual 10-point loss (on the road) before crushing San Jose State 32-14 last Saturday. The Rams have a lot going for them now and while it won't be easy, there is a path for them to potentially reach a Bowl game, but they need to keep it rolling in this very winnable game against New Mexico and I'm confident they will. Colorado State QB Todd Centeio is coming off arguably his best performance of the season as he completed 19-of-23 passes for 232 yards and a touchdown in last week's rout of San Jose State. Most importantly, he's taking good care of the football, having not thrown a single interception over the last three games, despite facing a pretty tough slate of defensive opponents over that stretch. Centeio isn't just a passer either, he can make plays with his legs, having run for at least 37 yards in three of the last four games. There's reason to believe Centeio will have some help in this one as the Rams backfield is coming off their best performance of the season. Saturday's opponent, New Mexico, got off to a 2-0 start this season but that was thanks to facing the likes of FCS squad Houston Baptist and New Mexico State. Since then, the Aggies have gone 0-4, outscored by a wide 123-30 margin. The injuries are starting to pile up, with Kentucky transfer QB Terry Wilson the latest to go down. He's questionable to play on Saturday. Even if he can go, I'm not convinced the offense can do much, noting that the only seven points the Aggies scored last week against San Diego State came by way of a fumble return for a touchdown. You would have to go back five-and-a-half quarters to find the last time New Mexico State scored an offensive touchdown. That's the Aggies only offensive TD over their last 11 quarters of football. Take Colorado State (10*). |
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10-16-21 | Montreal -5.5 v. Ottawa | 27-16 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal minus the points over Ottawa at 4 pm et on Saturday. We won with the RedBlacks in this same matchup on Monday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Alouettes in Saturday's rematch in Ottawa. Montreal jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead less than three minutes into Monday's contest. I think at that point the Als thought the game was going to be a cake-walk. It wasn't. Ottawa battled but ultimately fell short once again, dropping to 2-7 on the season. Note that the RedBlacks didn't score a single touchdown in that loss. In fact, you would have to go back nine quarters to find the last time Ottawa registered an offensive touchdown. Defense is where I expect the RedBlacks to struggle in this one, noting that they'll be without a pair of key defenders due to injuries in Avery Williams and Praise Martin-Oguike. Williams has been one of the team's top tacklers all season while Martin-Oguike has led their limited pass rush. For Montreal, all indications are that QB Vernon Adams Jr. will be good to go after leaving Monday's game with a shoulder injury. The Als will also welcome back RB William Stanback after he missed Monday's contest. Take Montreal (10*). |
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10-15-21 | San Diego State v. San Jose State +8 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 86 h 32 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on San Jose State plus the points over San Diego State at 10:30 pm et on Friday. While San Jose State hasn't gotten off to the start it hoped for this season, due in part to losing QB Nick Starkel to injury, everything is still in front of the Spartans. I still see a path to seven victories and a Bowl game but the turnaround has to start here against San Diego State on Friday night. Keep in mind, the Spartans upset the Aztecs as a double-digit road underdog in last year's matchup between these two teams. While San Jose State hasn't played as well as it did during that magical 2020 campaign, I still believe it can hang with an Aztecs squad that also isn't without its flaws. San Diego State rolled to a 31-7 victory over New Mexico last Saturday, improving to a perfect 5-0 on the season. The Spartans certainly know what to expect when it comes to the Aztecs offense. San Diego State will lean heavily on its two-headed monster in the backfield, Greg and Chance Bell. If there's one area where the Spartans defense has been stout, it's against the run as they've limited opponents to just 3.8 yards per rush this season. With a still unproven QB in Jordon Brookshire, who has been banged-up for most of the season, the Aztecs aerial attack isn't all that imposing. It remains to be seen whether San Jose State QB Starkel can return for this game. Even if he can't, I do expect Nick Nash to perform better than he did in last week's road game against Colorado State. Nash has had enough playing time going back to last season to settle into the offense a little bit and is more of a dual threat than Starkel. Consider San Diego State's defense has feasted on the likes of New Mexico State, Arizona, Towson and New Mexico this season. In its only real test it allowed 31 points in a narrow two-point win over Utah. San Jose State, meanwhile, has only had two home games, scoring a whopping 82 points in those two contests, albeit against weaker opposition. Take San Jose State (10*). |
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10-13-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll grab the insurance goal with the Canadiens as they open their season on the road against the rival Maple Leafs. Of course, the big news in Montreal is that goaltender Carey Price has entered into the NHL's Player Assistance Program and will be away from the team for an indefinite period of time. Fortunately for the Canadiens, they have one of the best backup goaltenders in the league in Jake Allen. Allen stepped in for Price for extended stretches last season and performed admirably and I expect more of the same this year. The Habs are of course coming off the bitter disappointment of losing in the Stanley Cup Final against the Golden Knights last summer. There's certainly reason for optimism entering the 2021-22 season. The Habs delivered some good news this week as they locked up emerging superstar Nick Suzuki with an eight-year contract. Toronto will start the season without a star of its own in Auston Matthews. The Leafs are once again brimming with talent and potential but it remains to be seen whether they can put it all together and finally go on a deep postseason run. As is often the case between these two teams, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair on Wednesday night. Take Montreal +1.5 goals (5*). |
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10-11-21 | Ottawa +9.5 v. Montreal | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over Montreal at 1 pm et on Monday. Caleb Evans had his 'welcome to the CFL' moment in last Wednesday's 35-16 rout at the hands of the Argos. In fact he had two. Evans threw a pair of costly pick-sixes that turned that game from a competitive affair into a blowout. I'm still high on Evans and expect him to bounce back and take better care of the football in Monday's Canadian Thanksgiving showdown in Montreal. The RedBlacks fall into an excellent situation here as underdogs off a division loss have gone 67-32 when facing an opponent coming off an outright underdog win, as is the case with Montreal following its overtime victory in Hamilton last week. The Als crushed the RedBlacks the last time these two teams met back on September 3rd. Montreal gained 183 yards on the ground in that game but will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance without RB William Stanback on Monday (he's been ruled out due to injured ribs). QB Vernon Adams is playing through a nagging foot injury as well. Take Ottawa (10*). |
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10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -103 | 33 h 57 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I love the way this one sets up for the 49ers as they look to bounce back from consecutive home losses against the Packers and Seahawks while facing a Cardinals squad that is coming off a monumental beatdown of the Rams, on the road no less, last week. As good as the Cardinals have been, I don't find them to be all that intimidating of a team to bet against simply due to the leaky nature of their defense. The fact that Arizona is allowing 5.2 yards per rush this season sets the Niners up well in this spot, even with San Francisco still banged-up at the running back position. Of course, the big news here is that Trey Lance is expected to get his first start for San Francisco, representing a major upgrade over Jimmy Garoppolo in my opinion. Only six teams have been flamed for more quarterback rushing yards than the Cards this season, which really helps open up the playbook for dual-threat Lance in this spot. Note that the 49ers have averaged 28.5 points per game and outscored opponents by an average margin of 4.7 points the last 10 times they've played on the road off an upset loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. They've gone an impressive 16-5 ATS the last 21 times they've come off an outright loss against a division opponent as a favorite, outscoring the opposition by eight points on average in that situation. The Cards are certainly not a trustworthy home favorite, having gone 1-8 ATS in that spot over the last 2+ seasons, actually getting outscored by 1.9 points on average. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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10-10-21 | Rays +1.5 v. Red Sox | 4-6 | Loss | -200 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 runs over Boston at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This line isn't likely to last long as the Rays may very well flip to the favorite here on Sunday. While it's available, we'll take advantage, however (it should still be available as an alternate run-line regardless). Note that Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi has delivered wins in each of his last two starts, with both of those victories coming by two runs or more. He's only managed to post a three-game streak of that nature once this season, and that came in a stretch that saw him face the lowly Rangers and Indians (twice). Note that Boston is just 14-20 after winning four of its last five games this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 runs in that spot. The Rays have feasted in day games this season, going 41-20 and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.2 runs. They're also 52-26 against division opponents, outscoring the opposition by 1.7 runs on average. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 runs (4*). |
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10-10-21 | Browns v. Chargers -2 | 42-47 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Cleveland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I think the Browns would have been well-advised to perhaps shut QB Baker Mayfield down for a game or two (he's dealing with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder) given how out of sorts he appeared in last week's 14-7 escape against the disjointed Vikings in Minnesota. Now he'll be going against a much tougher defense, and doing so with a cluster of injuries on his offensive line. On a positive note, the Browns run-centric offense will be going up against a very beatable Los Angeles run defense here (that allows over five yards per rush). However, given the fact I project the Browns to be playing from behind in this one and not well-positioned to pound away on the ground, I'm not sure that will matter all that much. I still don't believe we've seen the best of the Chargers offense yet. That's saying something as they enter this one off a string of clean, efficient performances. QB Justin Herbert faces a tough test here, but we know the Browns defense is beatable based on what we saw earlier in this season when they were blow-torched by Patrick Mahomes and then by an anemic Texans offense guided by Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills. This will be Cleveland's most difficult defensive matchup since Week 1 against Kansas City. Strong starts have been commonplace for the Browns in recent years but it's worth noting that they've gone a miserable 18-37 ATS in their last 55 games between Weeks 5 and 9, outscored by 9.2 points on average. Take Los Angeles (9*). |
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10-09-21 | Connecticut v. UMass +3 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
CFB Independents Game of the Year. My selection is on Massachusetts plus the points over Connecticut at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'm actually surprised we've seen this line flip since opening with Connecticut now favored in advance of Saturday's 'toilet bowl' matchup between two of the country's worst FBS teams. I won't spend much time waxing on about how impressive UMass is. That's simply not the case. However, I do feel that the Minutemen are further along in their progression back to respectability than UConn, which was of course forced to cancel its entire 2020 season. With this being a rivalry game, you can be sure the UMass players that were on board for 2019's beatdown at the hands of the Huskies haven't forgotten about it. This is the perfect opportunity to gain an ounce of revenge given the state of UConn. We actually won with the Huskies in last week's narrow loss against lowly Vanderbilt. They were catching far too many points in that one - I wasn't one bit surprised that they were competitive, riding high off a near-miss against Wyoming the week previous. Here, however, I expect to see somewhat of a letdown. UMass has faced a brutal early season schedule, going up against Pitt and Coastal Carolina on the road and Boston College, Eastern Michigan and Toledo at home. Let's face it, none of those games were winnable. I will give credit to the Minutemen for showing signs of life offensively, putting up 28 points in consecutive weeks against BC and EMU earlier in the season. After getting shut down by CCU and Toledo over the last two weeks, I'm confident they can get back on track offensively against a toothless UConn defense. Note that the Huskies are down to their third-string quarterback in Steven Krajewski. He caught Vandy a little flat-footed in last week's game but won't be so fortunate here as the Minutemen have some game film to break down. Not only are they deep into the QB depth chart but the Huskies are also dealing with somewhat of a Covid-19 breakout on the offensive line. It remains to be seen who will be good to go for Saturday's contest. Take Massachusetts (10*). |
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10-09-21 | Virginia v. Louisville -2.5 | 34-33 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Virginia at 3 pm et on Saturday. We faded the Cardinals last week and missed the mark as they gave Wake Forest everything it could handle, away from home no less, ultimately losing on a last-second field goal. Here, the Cardinals draw a more favorable matchup back at home as they look to bounce back against an up-and-down Virginia team that is coming off a two-point win in Miami last week. The Cavaliers just as easily could have lost that game but the Canes missed a last-second field goal that would have secured the win. Don't be fooled by that narrow win, Virginia isn't playing particularly well right now, with just one victory in its last three games, allowing a whopping 124 points over that stretch. Now the Cavaliers have to face a Louisville offense that has really gotten rolling after a slow start to the season. Cards QB Malik Cunningham entered the season with high expectations and lately he's been delivering, both with his arm and his legs. While I still have questions about the Cardinals defense, I believe this is a matchup they can handle, especially after limiting Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman to just 23-of-40 passing in last Saturday's game. These two teams have met in each of the last two seasons with the home side winning on both occasions. Louisville's ground attack was dominant in those two games, racking up 544 rushing yards. Allowing five yards per rush this season, the Cavs don't appear well-positioned to slow the Cardinals here. Take Louisville (9*). |
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10-09-21 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss -5 | 51-52 | Loss | -111 | 50 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Mississippi minus the points over Arkansas at 12 noon et on Saturday. I love the way this one sets up as a bounce-back spot for Ole Miss as it returns home licking its wounds off a blowout loss at Alabama while Arkansas stays on the road after getting crushed at Georgia. I don't think there's any question, there was a bit of 'smoke and mirrors' involved in Arkansas' perfect 4-0 start to the season. We certainly saw the Hogs weren't ready for primetime in last week's rout at the hands of the Bulldogs. While there was no real shame in losing to a team as good as Georgia, it was the way Arkansas got dominated that was concerning. Yes, Ole Miss got blown out as well but at least it was able to show some push-back, scoring 21 points in a three-touchdown loss. The Rebels should be able to get right back on track here as they play extremely fast and have the potential to overwhelm a Razorbacks offense that simply isn't built to play from behind. Note that Arkansas has yet to complete more than 14 passes in a game this season. The Hogs rely heavily on their ground attack but the Rebels have proven to be fairly stout against the run. Even in last week's game against mighty Alabama, with game script favoring the Crimson Tide running wild over the course of the afternoon, Ole Miss still allowed just a shade north of four yards per rush. Here, we'll back the Rebels noting that they've gone 25-10 ATS the last 35 times they've come off consecutive games in which they forced less than two turnovers, as is the case here, having outscored the opposition by an average margin of 7.4 points. Also note that Arkansas has averaged just 17.2 points per game, outscored by 8.5 points on average, the last 15 times it has come off a road loss by 28 points or more. Take Ole Miss (10*). |
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10-08-21 | Stanford v. Arizona State -12.5 | Top | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona State minus the points over Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Friday. I believe this game has blowout potential as Arizona State is rolling again off consecutive lopsided wins over Colorado and UCLA. Stanford is fresh off an emotional, come-from-behind overtime win over Oregon. Dealing with a number of key injuries and playing on the road on a short week, I don't see this as a favorable spot for the Cardinal. It's likely we'll see Stanford play from behind for much of the night and while they did manage to come back against Oregon last week, they would be playing with fire attempting to do so again here. That's because the Cardinal passing attack isn't built to bomb away. Stanford has completed 20 passes or fewer in each of its last four games since opening the season with 23 pass completions in a blowout loss against Kansas State (the Cardinal threw for just 194 yards in that game). Note that Stanford is losing the time of possession battle by an average of well north of three minutes, while averaging just 4.2 yards per rush this season. By contrast, the Sun Devils absolutely have the ability to salt this game away with a ground attack that averages 5.5 yards per rush this season. While the Sun Devils offense gets a lot of the attention, their experienced, talented defense has played exceptionally well, allowing just 3.6 yards per rush while not allowing a single opponent to throw for more than 235 yards. Note that Stanford is allowing 39.3 points per game when playing as a road underdog over the last three seasons. Take Arizona State (10*). |
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10-08-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Brewers | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 4:35 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the insurance run with the Braves in this NLDS opener on Friday afternoon. Atlanta checks in a solid 29-15 over its last 44 road games, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.2 runs. Here, the Braves are also in a favorable situation that has gone 23-7 over the last two seasons as they revenge a loss against an opponent in which they scored one run or less, outscoring opponents by a whopping 3.4 runs on average in that spot. Braves starter Charlie Morton has faced the Brewers just once over the last five seasons, but that start came back in August as he allowed only two earned runs over six innings. Meanwhile, Brewers starter Corbin Burnes turned in an outstanding regular season but his lone start against Atlanta didn't go well at all as he was tagged for five earned runs and lasted only four innings. Interestingly, the Brewers bullpen has struggled in day games all season, recording a collective 5.04 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with only 20 saves converted compared to 16 blown. Take Atlanta +1.5 runs (5*). |
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10-07-21 | Coastal Carolina -19 v. Arkansas State | Top | 52-20 | Win | 100 | 60 h 15 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Coastal Carolina minus the points at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Coastal Carolina is a bonafide juggernaut and I look for it to keep rolling against Arkansas State on Thursday night. The Red Wolves have fallen on hard times, losing 11 of 15 games since the start of last season. Keep in mind, this is a program that lost no more than five games in eight of nine seasons between 2011 and 2019. The offense remains explosive at times, however I don't like the dual quarterback situation between James Blackman and Layne Hatcher. Both are solid in their own right but sharing time just doesn't seem like the answer, even if head coach Butch Jones seems bent on it continuing. Defensively, Arkansas State has been a mess, struggling to improve after a disastrous 2020 season. The Red Wolves simply don't have the personnel in place to stop the likes of the Chanticleers. Coastal Carolina has done a tremendous job of mixing up tempo on offense, essentially toying with the majority of the defenses it has faced this season. QB Grayson McCall turned his ankle in last week's win over Louisiana-Monroe but all indications are that he'll be good to go for this one and was lifted from last Saturday's game as a precaution only. With an offense that can score at will and an underrated defense that isn't simply along for the ride, I'm confident the Chanticleers can keep the back door firmly closed in this one. Take Coastal Carolina (10*). |
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10-07-21 | Houston v. Tulane +7 | 40-22 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulane plus the points over Houston at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. These teams are certainly heading in opposite directions with Houston sitting at 4-1 and Tulane stuck at 1-4. All is not lost for the Green Wave, however. There are still seven games remaining on the schedule with the toughest matchup (against Cincinnati) coming at home. This is the same Tulane squad that opened the season with a narrow five-point loss on the road against Oklahoma. Turnovers have been a major problem as the Green Wave have coughed up the football eight times over their last two games. I do think that's something they can clean up here, however, and believe we're being given a generous helping of points with the home underdog. Note that the Green Wave are a perfect 7-0 ATS when coming off a road loss against a conference opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 9.9 points on average in that spot. Under head coach Willie Fritz, Tulane has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 5.8 points after losing four of its last five games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Houston is just 2-9 ATS under head coach Dana Holgorsen when coming off an ATS victory, outscored by 3.6 points on average in that situation. I'll also note that the Green Wave have posted an impressive 6-0 ATS mark, outscoring opponents by 4.6 point son average, under Fritz when facing opponents that average 34 or more points per game, as is the case with Houston here. Take Tulane (9*). |
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10-06-21 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Game of the Week. My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. This precise situation is essentially the reason the Dodgers brought in Max Scherzer prior to the trade deadline and I certainly understand why they're such a heavy favorite in this contest. But given how well the Cardinals played down the stretch I certainly don't expect to see them back down from the massive challenge at hand on Wednesday. While I won't call for the outright upset, I will back the Cards with an insurance run at a very reasonable price. Note that the Dodgers enter this game having won five consecutive contests by two runs or more. Their longest such streak this season was six games - a feat they accomplished only once, back in early April. Also consider that Los Angeles checks in 15-19 after posting consecutive wins by four runs or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of just 0.4 runs in that situation. As for the Cards, they're a solid 13-6 when playing on the road off consecutive losses over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.7 runs on average in that spot. The Dodgers have won each of Max Scherzer's last five starts by two runs or more - the longest such streak of the season for Mad Max. His previous high was four straight team wins by two runs or more, which was followed up by a narrow 4-3 win over the Mets in his next start back on August 21st. Take St. Louis +1.5 runs (10*). |
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10-03-21 | Seahawks +2.5 v. 49ers | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show |
NFL First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle plus the points first half over San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the Seahawks last week in Minnesota as they got off to a strong start but couldn't hold off a desperate Vikings squad in an eventual lopsided loss. Here, I do expect Seattle to bounce back against the division-rival 49ers. However, I don't like the prospect of the Niners making a potential switch at quarterback in the second half should Jimmy G. continue to struggle under center. So instead we'll back the Seahawks in the first half in a situation that has worked out very well over the years. Note that Seattle has gone an impressive 44-26 ATS in the first half the last 70 times it has come off an upset loss as a favorite in its previous game, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 3.7 points in that situation. Better still, the Seahawks are 23-9 ATS in the first half when coming off an upset loss as a road favorite, outscoring opponents by 5.4 points on average in that situation. I'm not as down on the Seahawks defense as most heading into this one. Yes, Seattle got ripped by a desperate Vikings offense that gameplanned very aggressively in last week's contest. I expect a different story to unfold here as the Seahawks are now the 'desperate' team coming off consecutive losses. Seattle owns numerous matchup edges on offense in this one, most notably with their passing attack as DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett (even if he is less than 100% healthy) should feast on a 49ers secondary that is dealing with a cluster of injuries. Defensively, Seattle won't have to deal with a monster tandem like Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson at wide receiver this week. Meanwhile, the Niners once-vaunted ground attack has been depleted due to injuries as well with Trey Sermon not looking like the explosive runner they had hoped for in his rookie campaign. Take Seattle first half (10*). |
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10-03-21 | Texans v. Bills -17 | Top | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 48 h 5 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm not one bit afraid of the big number in this one. We've been along for the Bills ride the last couple of weeks, cashing with them in their rout of the Dolphins before hitting the 'over' in last week's blowout win over Washington. I fully expect them to make it three straight lopsided wins against the lowly and reeling Texans on Sunday. Houston was every bit as advertised (finally) last week against Carolina as awful play-calling combined with an inefficient rookie QB in Davis Mills combined to lead to an eventual blowout loss against the Panthers. This is a nightmarish matchup for the Texans on both sides of the football. While he's had a few extra days of preparation, I'm not sure that extra reps in practice are going to make a bit of difference for Mills as he has a subpar supporting cast. WR Brandin Cooks got off to a strong start this season but he'll likely be erased by standout Bills corner Tre'davious White in this one. Outside of Cooks there's little reason for optimism in the Houston offense. On the flip side, Bills QB Josh Allen silenced his critics in resounding fashion against Washington last Sunday and now draws an even more favorable matchup. Allen represents a considerable step up in class from the quarterbacks Houston has faced thus far - a slate that has included Trevor Lawrence (in his first NFL start - on the road no less), Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. Allen figures to feast on an unimposing Texans defense with Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll likely to dial up another aggressive gameplan. We've still yet to see Bills WR Stefon Diggs truly explode this season but we've certainly seen glimpses in the last couple of weeks. I'm high on Diggs, but perhaps even higher on Buffalo's ancillary pass-catchers, including underrated TE Dawson Knox. What more can I say about this matchup, I expect the Bills to roll by three touchdowns plus. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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10-02-21 | Connecticut +15.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Connecticut plus the points over Vanderbilt at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. This is absolutely a 'plug your nose and bet it' type of a play on Saturday night. I'm as surprised as you that I'm actually getting behind UConn after we successfully faded it in two out of three tries (the lone loss was a free play on the Huskies when they back-doored Army two weeks ago) already this season. I do like the progression I've seen from the Huskies, however, and certainly believe they can hang with another down-trodden program in Vanderbilt. As I mentioned, two weeks ago we saw UConn fall behind 42-0 before halftime at Army before outscoring the Black Knights 21-10 in the second half in an eventual back-door cover. The fact that the Huskies didn't quite in that game meant something and we saw some carry-over in last week's home game against a tough Wyoming squad as UConn jumped out to a 13-0 lead and ultimately hung tough for four quarters in a 24-22 loss. That was certainly an impressive performance on both sides of the football against a Cowboys squad that is a perfect 4-0 on the season. Now the Huskies get a stretch where they can potentially build some confidence, facing Vandy, UMass and Yale in consecutive weeks. Vandy does have a win to its credit this season but that came by just three points against an awful Colorado State squad. Since then, the Commodores have had their doors blown off in two games against Stanford and Georgia, outscored by a combined 103-23 margin. Note that they've scored just one touchdown in their last nine quarters of action, that coming in the final seconds of a game that was long decided against Stanford. The fact that Vandy somehow managed to give up 35 points in less than a quarter of action last week, even against a power program like Georgia, was telling. There are few redeeming qualities when it comes to either of these teams but I think we're seeing Vandy laying north of a touchdown simply due to the SEC vs. Independent angle. There's a chance that UConn can prove to be a 'tough out' over the remainder of the season and I'm willing to bet on that on Saturday. Take Connecticut (10*). |
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10-02-21 | Indians v. Rangers +1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. This one sets up well for the Rangers with the Indians coming in off consecutive wins. Note that Texas hasn't dropped consecutive games since a five-game losing streak from September 19th-23rd. The Indians check in a woeful 4-16 after scoring nine runs or more in a game this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.1 runs in that situation. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 9-2 when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent where that team scored eight runs or more over the last three seasons, which is also the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.6 runs on average in that spot. Indians starter Triston McKenzie had a nice run but he's struggled over his last couple of outings, allowing 10 earned runs in just 7 1/3 innings. Take Texas +1.5 runs (7*). |
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10-02-21 | Baylor +4 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 18 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Baylor plus the points over Oklahoma State at 7 pm et on Saturday. I'm starting to believe in Baylor. Two weeks ago we cashed with the Bears in their rout of lowly Kansas. While that was a game they were certainly expected to win, I liked the way they absolutely poured it on in the second half, scoring 31 unanswered points in a 45-7 rout. Last week, the Bears were involved in a game they weren't necessarily expected to win but gutted out a hard-fought 31-29 victory over then-14th ranked Iowa State. Now comes a very difficult test in Stillwater, noting that Oklahoma State rolled to a 42-3 victory when these two teams met last December. I think the Bears will be up for the challenge. While Oklahoma State deals with a number of key injuries on both sides of the football (defensive stars Tre Sterling and Trace Ford the most notable), Baylor enters this showdown relatively healthy. We've seen a number of players step up and take on big roles for the Bears this season. It starts with QB Gerry Bohanon, who was given the opportunity to start at the beginning of the season and has certainly made the most of it, seemingly getting better with each passing week. Bohanon has thrown for seven touchdowns while running for another four. He's yet to throw an interception but did fumble twice in last week's victory. Of course it helps to have a tremendous supporting cast. R.J. Sneed and Tyquan Thornton make up one of the top wide receiver tandems in the nations - an unappreciated tandem at that. Trestan Ebner was thought to be the 1-A back but he's actually taken a backseat to Abram Smith at times, who has three 118+ yard rushing performances with five touchdowns to his credit already this season. While the Bears are known for their explosive offense, it's their defense that impressed me most this season. This is a loaded unit that was expected to take a big step forward this season and it has. This is a manageable matchup given Oklahoma State has been held to 31 points or less in all four games this season and as I mentioned is missing a few key cogs due to injury on offense. We saw the Cowboys score three offensive touchdowns in the game's first 20 minutes last week against Kansas State but they were held to a single field goal the rest of the way. In fact, Oklahoma State hasn't scored a single second half point in its last two games. RB Jaylen Warren has been outstanding the last couple of weeks in particular but he's not better than Breece Hall, who the Bears dealt with against Iowa State last Saturday. Simply put, Baylor has the talent and depth up front and at the back-end to make life miserable for Cowboys QB Spencer Sanders on Saturday night. Provided the Bears don't get swallowed up by the sheer size and importance of this matchup, I believe they can hang for 60 minutes. Take Baylor (10*). |
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10-02-21 | Syracuse v. Florida State -4.5 | 30-33 | Loss | -120 | 29 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Syracuse at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. It's not easy to get behind the Seminoles these days as they enter Saturday's matchup with Syracuse sporting a winless 0-4 record. But how many games could we have expected them to win at this point? Three of their four losses have come against Notre Dame, Wake Forest and Louisville - three teams that have combined to post an 11-1 overall record this season. The other loss was a stunner for sure against FCS squad Jacksonville State. The 'Noles clearly got caught letting their guard down in that one, playing on a short week off an overtime loss against Notre Dame and leading by 10 points late in the fourth quarter before the Gamecocks came up with a pair of touchdowns. Nevertheless, the 'Noles continue on and with a tough date at North Carolina looming next week, a win is critical here against Syracuse. The Orange are off to a solid 3-1 start but I'm not all that high on them at this point. The schedule has had everything to do with Syracuse's strong start, noting that its three wins have come against an Ohio squad that is much worse than expected, FCS team Albany and Liberty. The loss came by double-digits at home against Rutgers. The Orange surprisingly went with Garrett Shrader at quarterback in last week's game against Liberty. Shrader is arguably a better runner than passer and is expected to get the start again here. Keep in mind, Florida State just faced one of the best running quarterbacks in the nation in Malik Cunningham of Louisville last week so the 'Noles will certainly be ready for Shrader. RB Sean Tucker has been the big difference-maker for the Orange so far this season - he's coming off a 169-yard rushing effort in last week's win over Liberty. He's risen to the occasion against the weaker squads on Syracuse's schedule but was bottled up for just 54 yards on 13 carries against Rutgers. Despite playing with negative game-script during its 0-4 start, Florida State has actually allowed just 132.3 rush yards per game this season. It's the pass that has hurt the 'Noles most but I'm not convinced that either Shrader or former starter Tommy DeVito are capable of taking advantage for the Orange. On the flip side, note that when teams have chosen to throw on the Orange they've found success to the tune of a 73.5% completion percentage. This sets up as a potential breakout game for Florida State QB McKenzie Milton. I also question whether the Syracuse defense will be able to contain underrated 'Noles RB Jashaun Corbin who has ran for 439 yards and three scores - good for a whopping 9.2 yards per rush through four games this season. The 'Noles are looking to take their frustrations out on someone and I believe the Orange fit the bill. Take Florida State (9*). |
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10-02-21 | Louisville v. Wake Forest -6.5 | 34-37 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wake Forest minus the points over Louisville at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. The Demon Deacons are off to a perfect 4-0 start but will face a tough test in the form of Louisville - a team that has had their number over the last couple of seasons - on Saturday afternoon in Winston-Salem. I expect Wake Forest to rise the occasion, however. This is a different Demon Deacons squad than we've seen in recent years, boasting a ton of talent and experience on both sides of the football. Wake has shown the ability to jump ahead and salt away games from there, which is precisely what we saw last week as it didn't allow another score after Virginia cut its lead to 27-17 with just over five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. I believe the Deacs' can follow a similar script here, especially with Louisville losing the heart-and-soul of its defense, Monty Montgomery, to a season-ending knee injury. In last week's game in particular, Louisville's opponent Florida State didn't persist with its ground attack nearly enough in the early going, ultimately playing from behind the entire game. When it did decide to test the Cardinals front it found success, including a 75-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. As impressive as the Louisville offense has looked at times, it has also gone stagnant for periods. Last week it scored 31 first half points but then didn't score again in what turned out to be an eight-point win over aforementioned Florida State. There was a game against FCS squad Eastern Kentucky earlier this season where the Cardinals scored an offensive touchdown with just over four minutes remaining in the first quarter and then didn't find the end zone on offense again until there were just over five minutes left in the third quarter. I expect the Deacs' defensive athleticism to be a difference-maker in this one as they have the personnel to contain Cards dual-threat QB Malik Cunningham. I also won't discount the fact that Wake Forest has had an extra day of preparation having played last Friday night; it does matter as we flip the calendar over to October. Take Wake Forest (8*). |
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09-28-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
N.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over New York at 4:10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are simply playing out the string at this point and both are playing poorly with each entering riding five-game losing streaks. Something obviously has to give in this one. I'll grab the insurance run with the Marlins as the spot sets up well for them in the front half of this seven-inning double-header. Note that Miami has gone an impressive 17-7 after scoring three runs or less in three consecutive games this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.0 runs in that spot. While the Marlins sit a whopping 27 games under .500 on the season, they've actually gone 32-31 after losing four or five of their last six games, outscoring opponents by 0.5 runs on average in that situation. As for the Mets, they're a woeful 1-9 when playing with double-revenge against an opponent having scored two runs or less in those losses, outscored by an average margin of 2.4 runs in that spot. Marcus Stroman will get the start for New York. Note that he owns a 2-7 team record the last nine times he's pitched as a home favorite priced between -150 and -200, as is the case here, with his teams outscored by 2.8 runs on average in that spot. Trevor Rogers will counter for Miami. He has posted a 2.60 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 13 road starts this season. While the Marlins are just 4-10 in his last 14 starts overall, they've gone 8-6 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. Miami has won all three of Rogers' previous starts against the Mets, despite the fact that he was matched up against New York ace Jacob DeGrom twice. Stroman has faced the Marlins three times this season and the Mets failed to deliver a win by more than a single run in any of those contests. Take Miami +1.5 runs. |
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09-26-21 | Dolphins +4 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I don't believe for a second that the Raiders are a true contender in the AFC West this season. Yes, they're off to a 2-0 start. However, they just as easily could have started with a loss against the Ravens were it not for some poor execution from Baltimore late in that Monday nighter. Then they took advantage of a Steelers squad that was 'fat and happy' off a season-opening upset win in Buffalo, and continues to employ an aging, noodle-armed starting QB in Ben Roethlisberger. Here, I believe the Raiders face their toughest test to date with a late window home game against the Dolphins, who will certainly be in a foul mood following last week's 35-0 drubbing at the hands of the Bills. While Miami will be without starting QB Tua Tagovailoa, I don't believe there's a big drop-off from him to backup Jacoby Brissett. Brissett has proven to be a capable starting QB during his days in Indianapolis and I expect him to find some success in a 'game manager' role against the Raiders here. This one really comes down to the Dolphins defense, and I'm confident they can outplay a very average Raiders offense on Sunday afternoon. Las Vegas' offensive line is banged-up. Derek Carr is dealing with an ankle injury. The Raiders defense has lost a pair of safeties along with DT Gerald McCoy. Note that the Raiders are 2-11 ATS the last 13 times they've come off consecutive games in which they gained 300 or more yards through the air. They're also 28-46 ATS when coming off consecutive wins ATS, outscored by an average margin of 3.3 points in that spot. Look for the Fins to at the very least take the Raiders down to the wire in this one. Take Miami (10*). |
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09-25-21 | Buffalo -13 v. Old Dominion | 35-34 | Loss | -116 | 58 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Old Dominion at 6 pm et on Saturday. Buffalo got off to a roaring start this season, blasting FCS squad Wagner 69-7 in its opener. Since then, the Bulls have lost back-to-back games, albeit as considerable underdogs on the road against Nebraska and at home against Coastal Carolina. There's no reason to be down on the Bulls right now and I fully expect to see them take their frustrations out on Old Dominion this week. The Monarchs are off to an identical 1-2 start although their long-term prospects this season aren't nearly as favorable as Buffalo's. Keep in mind, ODU was forced to cancel its entire 2020 season due to Covid concerns and as a result had a number of players transfer out of the program entirely. That leaves the cupboard somewhat bare this season as the Monarchs look to build the program back up. Note that their lone victory so far came against an FCS team, Hampton. In its other two contests, ODU was outscored by an 87-27 margin against Wake Forest and Liberty. The Monarchs are particularly thin on the defensive side of the football and that was more than evident last Saturday as they were torched for four first half touchdowns against Liberty. Buffalo is precisely the type of team they probably don't want to see this week as the Bulls can beat you in a variety of different ways. It's worth noting that in both of the Monarchs previous losses their opponent has taken their foot off the gas in the second half, something I don't anticipate seeing out of Buffalo given it needs to turn in a complete 60-minute effort after suffering consecutive losses. Remember, back in Week 1 against Wagner, the Bulls jumped ahead 38-0 before halftime but still proceeded to add 31 more points in the game's final 30 minutes. Once Buffalo is able to build a lead in this one we can count on its ground game to salt the game away with a trio of running backs capable of going off. In fact, through three games, the Bulls have had three different players lead the team in rushing. QB Kyle Vantrease is more of a game manager than anything else but has shown the ability to go off through the air in the past and this is certainly a matchup where he can take advantage of an ODU secondary that was forced to make wholesale changes after canceling the 2020 season. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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09-25-21 | Kent State v. Maryland -14 | 16-37 | Win | 100 | 53 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Kent State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed with Maryland last week as the Terps won but failed to cover in a low-scoring Friday night game in Illinois. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Terps as they're well-positioned to win by margin against Kent State and its 'FlashFast' offense. That high-octane offense has been great in MAC play in recent years, and certainly against FCS opponents. However, pit the Golden Flashes against teams from the Power Five conferences and they don't fare so well. Back in 2019 we saw Kent State score a combined 23 points in three road games against Arizona State, Auburn and Wisconsin. Of course, 2020 was a unique season that only featured MAC games for the Golden Flashes. So far this season we've seen Kent State put up 10 points at Texas A&M and seven points at Iowa - sandwiched around a 60-10 rout of FCS squad VMI. Maryland has the size, talent and experience on the defensive side of the football to effectively swallow up the Golden Flashes offense, which as I mentioned is predicated on playing fast and coming up with big plays from its shifty running backs and speedy wide receivers. Kent State's offensive line, while experienced, hasn't held up well at all through three games this season, allowing QB Dustin Crum to be sacked a whopping 10 times through three games. With Crum taking a beating, the Golden Flashes would probably be well-suited to 'punt' this one before opening their MAC schedule with a home game against Bowling Green next Saturday. Unlike the Terps, Kent State lacks the size up front on defense to keep opposing offenses at bay. Maryland's offense was held down against Illinois last week but it was more due to a lack of execution at key points of the game than anything else as the Terps converted just two-of-10 third down opportunities. QB Taulia Tagovailoa actually completed 32-of-43 passes for 350 yards and a touchdown in the three-point win. Unfortunately, the Terps coughed up a pair of fumbles which ultimately ended up being the different between a win and a win and ATS cover. Look for the Terps to bully the Kent State defensive line and open things up for their underrated ground attack in this one. Tagovailoa will have his moments as Maryland boasts a deep group of talented wide receivers, but I suspect Tayon Fleet-Davis may actually be the star of this game. If you're concerned about the back door being left open in this one, keep in mind Maryland led Howard (admittedly an FCS squad) 38-0 at halftime two weeks ago but continued to pour it on in the second half, scoring another 24 unanswered points. Backup QB Reece Udinski is capable, having gone 5-for-5 passing for 73 yards and a score in that rout. Take Maryland (9*). |
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09-25-21 | Ohio +14.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 6-35 | Loss | -107 | 49 h 41 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Ohio plus the points over Northwestern at 12 noon et on Saturday. We successfully faded the Ohio Bobcats in their rout at the hands of Louisiana-Lafayette last Thursday night. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Bobcats as they stay on the road to face Northwestern on Saturday. Consider Ohio's loss last week 'rock-bottom'. While it's been an awful 0-3 start to the season and the post-Frank Solich era, all is not lost. Everything is actually still in front of the Bobcats with a full MAC schedule set to begin next week. While the Week 2 loss to FCS squad Duquesne was ugly, the fact is Ohio wasn't really expected to win either of its other two games. With a strong performance on Saturday, the Bobcats can at the very least feel good about themselves entering the onset of conference play. Perhaps the best news for Ohio is that standout WR Isiah Cox is expected to make his season debut after missing the first three games due to disciplinary issues. I don't believe his absence sat well with the rest of the team, the offense in particular as they struggled to move the football through the first three weeks of the season. Cox immediately makes the offense more explosive, keeping in mind, the Bobcats already boast a tremendous 1-2 punch at the running back position in De'mondre Tuggle and O'Shaan Allison. Defensively, the Bobcats are better than they've shown and here should benefit from having an couple of extra days of practice following last week's dubbing at the hands of a terrific Ragin' Cajuns offense. While they're stepping up in class on paper against a Big Ten opponent here, Northwestern certainly has its issues, on both sides of the football. The Wildcats head into this game sporting a 1-2 record with its lone victory coming against FCS squad Indiana State. In losses to Michigan State and Duke, the Wildcats were marched up and down the field on at will. On offense, the Wildcats have been going with a three-man rotation at quarterback, which only indicates one thing, they're not all that confident in any of the three. The reality is, the Wildcats season began circling the drain before it even got started when RB Cam Porter went down to a season-ending injury in August. Without a dominant ground attack, the Wildcats lack the ability to effectively shorten games, something Ohio will be looking to do here on Saturday. While most teams boast a ton of returning talent following a strange 2020 Covid-tinged season, Northwestern is one of the least experienced teams in the country. This one has the potential to be much closer than most are expecting. Take Ohio (10*). |
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09-24-21 | Mariners v. Angels +1.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Mariners are rolling right now, having won five consecutive games to claw back into the A.L. Wild Card hunt, currently sitting two games back of the New York Yankees, who hold down the second spot. Interestingly, this is the first time all season that Seattle checks in having won four of its last five games by multiple runs. I don't expect it to continue tonight in Anaheim. The Angels snapped a six-game losing streak with a 3-2 win over the Astros yesterday. Note that they're 12-6 after losing six or seven of their last eight games this season, as is the case here. While the Mariners do check in six games over .500 on the road this season, they've actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.4 runs in those games. They've been outscored by 0.5 runs on average after winning four or five of their last six games this season. Over the last three seasons, Seattle has been outscored by an average margin of 0.6 runs, allowing 6.2 runs per game in the process, after posting four or more consecutive victories. The Mariners are 14-8 when rookie starter Logan Gilbert takes the ball this season. However, when factoring in the -1.5 run-line, they've gone just 6-16. Meanwhile, Angels starter Jose Suarez hasn't posted great overall numbers this season but there's reason for confidence backing him here, noting that he has worked at least into the sixth inning in three consecutive starts and sports a 2.21 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over his last three outings. Los Angeles has won three of his last four starts overall, outscoring the opposition by a combined 19-8 margin in those games. It has also won three of his four career starts against the Mariners, including a 7-1 victory in his lone previous start against them this season. All told, the Halos have outscored the M's by a combined margin of 29-16 in Suarez's four career outings against them. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (6*). |
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09-19-21 | Vikings +4 v. Cardinals | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the Vikings on the moneyline last week in Cincinnati but probably deserved a better fate as they were driving for the winning score in overtime before a costly turnover from RB Dalvin Cook. Noting that they've played consecutive road games four times in the last two seasons and didn't drop both of those games on any of those occasions, I look for them to bounce back here on Sunday in Arizona. The Cardinals couldn't have looked any better in last week's rout of the highly-touted Titans in Tennessee. Everything clicked for the Cards in that game but now they're in a much different situation, favored by more than a field goal back at home against an opponent that will be desperate to avoid an 0-2 start to the season. Minnesota certainly didn't play its best game against the Bengals last week but was still right there with a shot to win it in overtime. Yes, the Vikes have numerous injuries on the defensive side of the football, but I think we see the offense bounce back and at the very least keep pace with the Cards on Sunday. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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09-19-21 | Tigers +1.5 v. Rays | 2-0 | Win | 120 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. In a game that projects to be relatively low-scoring with a total of just 7.5 runs, we'll grab the insurance run with the Tigers at a plus-money return. Detroit dropped the first two games of this series but responded with a 4-3 victory in yesterday's game. That actually puts the Rays in a poor spot here, noting that Tampa Bay has gone 7-14 when coming off a one-run loss this season, outscored by 1.4 runs on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Tigers check in a highly-profitable 10-8 when playing on the road after scoring four runs or less in five consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.2 runs. Rays starter Shane McClanahan is no sure thing here at home, where he averages less than five innings per start and has posted a 1.38 WHIP in 54 1/3 innings of work this season. Meanwhile, Tigers starter Wily Peralta has posted a 1.28 WHIP in 46 innings pitched on the road this season and has allowed only five earned runs over his last 20 innings of work, covering a span of four starts. Take Detroit +1.5 runs (5*). |
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09-19-21 | Texans v. Browns -12.5 | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -106 | 75 h 47 m | Show |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. The fact that the Texans not only beat the Jaguars but completely annihilated them while the Browns gave up 30+ points in a blown opportunity on the road against the Chiefs is helping keep this line under a touchdown on Sunday afternoon. I don't think the oddsmakers can set the line high enough. Let's keep Houston's Week 1 blowout win in perspective. The Texans jumped ahead early in that game and the questionably-coached Jags essentially threw their offensive gameplan out the window. It's not as if the Houston defense was dominant - in fact, it recorded just one sack and four QB hurries against rookie Trevor Lawrence, who was making his first NFL start and was bombing away playing from behind all afternoon long. Offensively, the Texans torched what we knew would be a bad Jags defense - we saw it throughout the preseason and it carried over into Week 1. Here, Houston will be up against an elite Browns defense. Forget the fact that Cleveland gave up 30+ points against the Chiefs - that was obviously an extremely difficult matchup. Here, we can expect the Browns 'D' to take its frustrations out on a Texans offense that boasts below-average talent at all of the skill positions. However, it's actually the Houston defense that I'm most concerned about in this one. We've seen the Browns evolve into a more aggressive offense compared to the early stages of last season. I mentioned the lack of pressure the Texans were able to put on Trevor Lawrence last week, with that in mind, Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield should absolutely feast on Sunday while the backfield tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt takes care of the rest. The Browns run away and hide in this one. Take Cleveland (9*). |
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09-19-21 | Bills -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 35-0 | Win | 100 | 75 h 31 m | Show |
AFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. I have a lot of faith in the Bills coaching staff to come up with the right gameplan and for the players to execute that gameplan as they look to avoid an 0-2 start in Miami this Sunday. Let's face it; Buffalo got out-coached and out-gameplanned in its opener against Pittsburgh. The Bills came out expecting the Steelers to play a certain way - particularly on defense where they're known for their blitz-happy nature - and instead they got thrown a screwball and ultimately were unable to prevail in a surprisingly low-scoring affair. While this doesn't look like an ideal bounce-back matchup on paper - certainly not after the Dolphins 'upset' the Patriots in Foxboro last week - I think it's actually an ideal rebound spot for Buffalo. Bills QB Josh Allen is coming off a terrible performance against the Steelers last week - but again, that had more to do with Pittsburgh's improbable scheme than anything else. Here, Allen will be facing perhaps his favorite opponent in the Miami Dolphins. He's faced the Fins four times in the last two seasons, flaming them for nearly 1,000 passing yards (good for over nine yards per pass attempt), 12 touchdowns and just one interception. That's not to mention the fact he's run all over them for over 100 rushing yards and a score on just 17 attempts. Miami executed its own gameplan flawlessly against the Patriots last week. The problem is, this is an offense (and team) that's built for playing with a lead. Should they fall behind in this one, I don't have a lot of trust in QB Tua Tagovailoa or an average ground attack to lead them back, or even sneak in the backdoor. IT seems to me that a lot of bettors are backing the Dolphins thinking they're getting a 'gift' catching a field goal at home. I expect the Bills to put the Fins back in their place. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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09-19-21 | Bengals v. Bears -1 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Bears couldn't have looked much worse in last Sunday night's blowout loss against the Rams in Los Angeles. That was a brutal spot for the Bears and we took advantage, fading them in the first half. Highly-touted rookie QB Justin Fields' time is coming and perhaps sooner rather than later after he saw the field for a number of plays in last week's game. I do expect him to play a factor in this contest as the Bears look to give their home faithful some hope for the future. The Bengals were a popular fade last week but got some favorable bounces and ultimately prevailed over the Vikings in overtime. I don't believe they'll be so fortunate this week, however. Cincinnati still boasts a subpar defense, not the type of unit we trust to back in a hostile environment on the road. Note that the Bengals won only one road game all of last year, that coming against the hapless Texans in Week 16 (they did pick up a tie in Philadelphia in Week 3. The Bears didn't lose their second game last season until Week 7. Anything other than a victory on Sunday could only be seen as a massive disappointment in Chicago. There are so many areas the Bears can improve on off last week's awful performance - sometimes it's actually easier for a team to rally off a season-opening loss than it is to follow a win. Take Chicago (10*). |
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09-18-21 | Baylor -17.5 v. Kansas | Top | 45-7 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
CFB Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Kansas at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. One of our biggest plays last week was a fade of Kansas and it worked out perfectly as the Jayhawks were routed in a Friday night road game against Coastal Carolina. Things won't get any easier for Kansas here as it returns home to the site of an inexplicable field-storming from the fans following an ugly 17-14 win over FCS squad South Dakota two weeks ago, hosting the Baylor Bears on Saturday afternoon. Baylor has yet to earn much national attention but with another strong performance here, and perhaps next week at home against Iowa State, it will. The Bears are loaded on both sides of the football. Quarterback was a question mark heading into the season but I like what I've seen from Gerry Bohanon. He hasn't been asked to do too much but has settled in nicely as a game manager, completing 32-of-47 passes for just shy of 400 yards, three touchdowns and most importantly, no interceptions. The Bears offense is all about the ground game and the do of Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner has been electric with both rushing for 100+ yards in each of their first two games this season. Kansas lacks the bulk or talent up front to slow Baylor's dominant rushing attack. On the flip side, the Jayhawks offense has not surprisingly struggled. Dual-threat QB Jake Bean had a couple of nice plays against Coastal Carolina last week but both were with his legs. He's not much of a threat passing the ball and behind a leaky offensive line, he's been running for his life for much of the first two games - sacked six times already. The Bears defense has the experience and talent - strong from the secondary in - to make life miserable on Bean and his rag-tag supporting cast. With a ball-hawking secondary, I don't expect Baylor to leave the back door open in this one. Take Baylor (10*). |
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech v. West Virginia -2.5 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 49 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on West Virginia minus the points over Virginia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday. It's been a dream start for Virginia Tech as it opened with a stunning upset win over North Carolina and followed that up with an expected victory over Middle Tennessee State last week. I'll be honest, I didn't expect the Hokies to be that good this season - in fact, I still don't. I look for them to be handed their first loss of the season in Morgantown on Saturday. Last week's game against Middle Tennessee State was actually close at halftime with the Hokies leading 14-7. That narrow lead was only thanks to some inept play-calling from the Blue Raiders, not to mention some key penalties. I don't expect the Mountaineers to suffer from either of those things on Saturday. West Virginia got dropped from most bettors' radars after falling by a 30-24 score as a road favorite against Maryland. I'm higher on the Terps than most so I don't believe that narrow loss was all that devastating. The Mountaineers actually led that game heading into the fourth quarter, only a defensive breakdown on a long fourth quarter touchdown proved to be their downfall. In the perfect tune-up for this contest, West Virginia rolled to a 66-0 rout of LIU-Brooklyn last week. I liked the way the Mountaineers never took their foot off the gas in that victory, even pouring it on with four second half touchdowns after heading into halftime with a seemingly insurmountable 38-0 lead. With a tough road game against Oklahoma looming next week, West Virginia needs to put its best foot forward here and keep its season on track with a win. Meanwhile, even with a loss, everything the Hokies want to accomplish this season would still be ahead of them with each of their next four games coming in Blacksburg. Take West Virginia (9*). |
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09-17-21 | Maryland -7.5 v. Illinois | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -109 | 38 h 51 m | Show |
CFB Big Ten Game of the Year. My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Illinois at 9 pm et on Friday. We successfully faded Illinois last week in its lopsided loss on the road against Virginia. While it has the benefit of returning home for a primetime game this week, and the opportunity to move to 2-0 in Big Ten play, I look for it to fall short once again. For Maryland, this will be its first conference game of the season after opening with wins over West Virginia and FCS squad Howard. The Terps couldn't have looked much more impressive in those two victories and I really liked what I saw from them in what was admittedly a layup against Howard last week. The Terps poured it on from the opening kick in that one, cruising to a 62-0 rout - a perfect tune-up before playing on a short week here in Champaign. As I noted in last week's analysis of my play against Illinois, it's going to take some time for new head coach Bret Bielema to turn around the program. Most of the key pieces are holdovers from a truly awful Lovie Smith era of Illini football. While Illinois is expected to get QB Brandon Peters back on the field this week, it will still be without RB Mike Epstein. This is a tough matchup against a Terps defense that is loaded in the secondary after going with a bit of a youth movement a year ago. Maryland recorded just two interceptions in five games last season but has already picked off three passes in just two games this year. Offensively, the Terps are rolling and figure to shred a weak Illini defense that just couldn't come up with any key stops against an average Virginia offense last Saturday. Illinois allowed Virginia to score touchdowns on each of its first two drives and the Cavs would have made it three straight scoring drives to open the game were it not for a missed field goal. After scoring a touchdown to close the gap on their first drive of the second half, the Illini defense gave it right back up, and then some, allowing Virginia to march down the field on two consecutive touchdown drives to put the game out of reach. The strength of the Illinois defense is up front but that doesn't bode all that well against a rejuvenated Terps offense that has shown the ability to blow the top off of opposing secondaries, with QB Taulia Tagovailoa throwing for well over 600 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions through two games. Take Maryland (10*). |
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09-16-21 | Ohio v. UL-Lafayette -20 | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on UL-Lafayette minus the points over Ohio at 8 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are off to somewhat disappointing starts this season but there's a difference. While Ohio is winless at 0-2 - dropping two straight winnable matchups - Louisiana-Lafayette did manage to reach the win column last week, albeit in a closer than expected affair against FCS squad Nicholls State. For the Ragin' Cajuns, everything is still in front of them. Keep in mind, they opened the season ranked in the top-25 before dropping a lopsided decision on the road against Texas. We've yet to see them turn in their best effort, but I think we will see it on Thursday night in this nationally-televised affair against Ohio. The Ragin' Cajuns return plenty of talent from last year's team - on both sides of the football. We've yet to see their ground game really get rolling but they are expected to have offensive lineman Carlos Rubio back from injury on Friday and I do think it's only a matter of time before they start finding some rushing success. The passing game is fine with fifth-year QB Levi Lewis at the helm and a wealth of talent at the wide receiver position. Even without top-two WR Jalen Williams making a single catch, Lewis still threw for over 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns in last week's 27-24 win. The defense is hoping to have standout LB Ferrod Gardner back on the field after he missed last week's game due to an ankle injury but even if he can't go there's plenty of depth at the position. I'm making this play assuming he won't be able to play but if he can we'll consider it a bonus. Ohio desperately needed a win over FCS squad Duquesne last week but fell short. It's been a miserable start to the post-Frank Solich era and I don't see the Bobcats turning it around here. The fact that one of their biggest gamebreakers on offense, WR Isiah Cox, remains suspended for disciplinary reasons can't sit well with a team that appears in desperate need of a spark. The Bobcats have a tremendous 1-2 punch in the backfield with RBs De'Montre Tuggle and O'Shaan Allison but their effectiveness is limited when they can't find a way to build a lead. They scored a kick return touchdown to open last week's game against Duquesne and then added another TD on their next drive. From there, they didn't find the end zone again until nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. The stagnant nature of the Ohio offense was really nothing new as it didn't find the end zone even once in a season-opening 29-9 loss to Syracuse. That's the same Orange squad that just lost 17-7 against Rutgers in its home-opener last week. While the line may appear fairly steep in this game, I simply feel that Louisiana-Lafayette is considerably better than it has shown through two games and will take full advantage of this spotlight matchup against a reeling Ohio squad on Thursday night. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (10*). |
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09-14-21 | Fever v. Dream -2.5 | 78-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Indiana at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This is one of the only times I've backed the Dream this season but I believe the situation warrants such a play. Both of these teams are simply playing out the string at this point. However, it's Atlanta that comes in having gone 4-1 ATS over its last five games and has held all five of those opponents to 43.8% or worse shooting. Contrast that with the Fever, who have allowed five of their last six opponents to shoot 47.5% or better from the field with two of their last three shooting 52.3% or better. Indiana simply doesn't have a lot of healthy bodies at this point, essentially down to a seven-player rotation, getting little scoring production from its bench. Meanwhile, Atlanta should have Odyssey Sims back in the lineup tonight. The Dream are missing a number of key cogs as well, but I like the move to insert highly-touted first round draft pick Aari McDonald into the starting lineup last game. She can potentially give the Dream a bit of a spark in the final week of the season after struggling for much of the campaign. While she knocked down just 3-of-12 shot attempts last time out, all three of those made field goals were from three-point range. Note that Atlanta has now been held under 80 points in eight straight games. Prior to its current stretch, it had yet to be held under 80 points in three consecutive games this season. Look for the Dream to end that streak of futility here tonight, noting that the Fever check in allowing a whopping 88.4 points per game on the road this season, where they've been outscored by just shy of 13 points on average. Take Atlanta (9*). |
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09-14-21 | Indians +1.5 v. Twins | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland +1.5 runs over Minnesota at 3:10 pm et on Tuesday. While we're being asked to lay significant juice to get the insurance run with the Indians here, I believe the price is warranted. Note that the Indians enter this series on the heels of a three-game sweep at the hands of the Brewers. They haven't lost four games in a row since back in the first week of July. Only once previously this season have they lost four consecutive games by more than a run - something they'll be looking to avoid here. Note that the Indians are 15-3 when coming off a game in which they scored one run or less this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.9 runs in that spot. They're also 11-3 when coming off a loss by six runs or more this season, outscoring opponents by 2.2 runs on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Twins were involved in a make-up game at Yankee Stadium yesterday, blowing a late 5-0 lead in an eventual 6-5 extra innings defeat. They're just 35-41 as a favorite this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.2 runs. When coming off three losses in their last four games this season, they check in 16-32, outscored by 1.8 runs on average in that spot. Twins rookie starter Joe Ryan flirted with a perfect game against the Indians just last week. Here, I expect Cleveland to do a better job of getting to the rookie in their second look. Indians starter Triston McKenzie has been their most reliable starter over the last month or so and checks in with a sparkling 1.42 ERA and 0.53 WHIP over his last three starts and a 1.12 WHIP in 11 road outings this season. Of course, grabbing the insurance run becomes even more helpful when you consider this is only a seven-inning game (the first half of a double-header). Take Cleveland +1.5 runs (5*). |
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09-13-21 | Red Sox v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Boston at 10:10 pm et on Monday. I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair as these two teams battle for American League Wild Card positioning in Monday's series-opener in Seattle. The Mariners of course suffered a major blow to their chances by dropping a pair of games against the lowly D'Backs over the weekend. They're by no means out of the race, however, as they sit just three games back of the second Wild Card spot. Note that the Red Sox have actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.9 runs over their last 33 road games. Meanwhile, the Mariners check in 20-15 after losing four or five of their last six games this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.3 runs in that situation. The Red Sox are just 37-48 after scoring two runs or less in their last game over the last three seasons. While they have outscored opponents on average in that spot, it has been by the slimmest of margins, just 0.1 runs. Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez has been as uneven as it gets this season, and particularly of late, allowing 14 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings over his last four starts. Mariners rookie Logan Gilbert went through a miserable three-start stretch in late-August but has since turned things around, allowing just two earned runs in 9 1/3 innings over his last two outings with the Mariners splitting those two games - the lone loss came by a single run. Factoring in the +1.5 run-line, the M's are an incredible 16-2 in Gilbert's last 18 starts overall. Take Seattle +1.5 runs (10*). |
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams -7.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
NFL First Half Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points first half over Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I can't help but feel Bears head coach Matt Nagy is effectively 'punting' the season-opener against the Rams in Week 1, frustratingly sticking with veteran Andy Dalton as his starting quarterback, leaving electric first round pick Justin Fields relegated to clipboard duty on Sunday night. That suits our purposes just fine as the Rams should control proceedings on both sides of the football. I can't imagine anything other than a limited playbook for Dalton, who will be operating behind a makeshift offensive line with a supporting cast that lacks gamebreaking ability. Dalton had moderate success taking over from an injured Dak Prescott last season but was gifted a loaded Cowboys offense in that situation. Allen Robinson is a stud at wide receiver but he's likely to be offered up blanket coverage from the Rams secondary. Los Angeles simply didn't give up big plays to opposing passing games last year and there's little reason to anticipate anything different here in 2021. On the flip side, Rams QB Matt Stafford couldn't ask for a better opponent to debut against than the familiar Bears. Unlike in Detroit, here he'll be afforded the opportunity to work behind an elite offensive line that gets back all five starters from last season. Chicago's defense is considerably stronger up front than it is at the back-end and that spells trouble in today's pass-happy NFL. Stafford has enough mobility to evade the likes of Khalil Mack and find his wealth of targets down field. Expect Rams receivers Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods to find plenty of open field to work with on Sunday night. Here, we'll play the first half only simply due to the ever-so-slight chance that Nagy turns to Fields should things really go sideways in the first half with Dalton. Take Los Angeles first half (10*). |
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09-12-21 | Jaguars -3 v. Texans | Top | 21-37 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
AFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Jacksonville minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Texans are going to be bad. Really bad. With that being said, Trevor Lawrence got off to a slow start running the Jags offense in the preseason (when everyone was paying attention) and most bettors are fairly low on Jacksonville so we're able to grab the Jags laying a very reasonable number of points in Week 1. I believe this line will look awfully short by comparison as the season unfolds and we realize just how bad the Texans are. The Jags were willing to trade capable backup QB Gardner Minshew for a reason. They're confident in Lawrence's abilities and I think we should be too, especially after watching him finally find some rhythm and a solid rapport with his receivers over the final couple of preseason games. Jacksonville boasts a solid wide receiving corps with veteran Marvin Jones, dynamic sophomore Laviska Shenault and D.J. Chark. While the season-ending injury to rookie RB Travis Etienne hurts, the Jags have solid depth at that position and I expect RB James Robinson to relish the opportunity to once again stake claim to the starting job. While much will be made about the awful Texans offense, their defense could be even worse. Trading away CB Bradley Roby was further evidence of the Texans intent to tank this season. The less said about the Jacksonville defense the better, but there's no question this is a favorable opening week matchup against a Texans offense that is bereft of dynamic talent with journeyman QB Tyrod Taylor being asked to shoulder the load, with a backfield that consists of the ghosts of David Johnson, Mark Ingram and Broncos castoff Phillip Lindsay. Quarterbacks drafted first overall have had very little success starting in Week 1 but I believe this is a unique situation given the matchup. Take Jacksonville (10*). |
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09-12-21 | 49ers -7.5 v. Lions | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think it's a good idea not to overthink this one as the 49ers are poised for a tremendous bounce-back campaign following an injury-ravaged 2020 season while the Lions are just hoping to win a game or two as they field a rag-tag group led by polarizing first-year head coach Dan Campbell. While I don't love the prospect of Jimmy Garoppolo leading the 49ers offense, I think it works just fine here in Week 1. The fact is, highly-touted first round draft pick Trey Lance was turnover-prone during the preseason and this probably wasn't going to be an ideal spot for him to make his first career start. Garoppolo is certainly deserving of holding on to the starting job for now and should do just fine against a well below-average Lions defense. The real advantage the 49ers should have in this contest is on the defensive side of the football. With all of their key cogs back healthy after a disastrous 2020 campaign, I expect this unit to make up for lost time against a woeful Lions offense. Joey Bosa and Arik Armstead are poised for a monster game against the Lions overmatched offensive line and we know how poorly QB Jared Goff has performed when under duress during his time with the Rams. You probably couldn't have picked a worse landing spot for Goff as the Lions simply don't have an o-line capable of pass protecting with any consistency. By halftime, I suspect this line will look awfully short while the 49ers dominant defense should help keep the back door held firmly shut in the fourth quarter. Take San Francisco (9*). |
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09-12-21 | Steelers v. Bills -6.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. After taking a deeper dive into this intriguing Week 1 AFC showdown, I really like the way it sets up for the Bills. Pittsburgh has the potential to be a very good team this year in what figures to be the 'last ride' for the tandem of head coach Mike Tomlin and QB Ben Roethlisberger. I say that not because Tomlin's job is in jeopardy but rather due to the clock ticking on Big Ben's career. The real concern for the Steelers lies in two different areas - on the offensive line and on defense. The o-line should be in for a nightmarish day trying to keep Big Ben upright against a fierce Bills pass rush that only got better through the draft. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's secondary - outside of standout Minkah Fitzpatrick - figures to take a step back with tough corners Steven Nelson and Mike Hilton moving on in the offseason. Also of note, one of the Steelers best defenders and pass rushers, Stephon Tuitt starts the season on the shelf. The Bills are quite simply loaded on both sides of the football and will be looking to make a real statement in this tough-on-paper opening week matchup against the Steelers. Some are down on Bills WR Cole Beasley but despite his concerning Covid vaccine stance, he figures to play a major factor here playing second-fiddle to superstar Stefon Diggs. It's easy to forget that these two teams just met in Week 14 last season with the Bills having little trouble prevailing by a double-digit margin, 26-15. A similar outcome is well within the realm of possibility here. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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09-11-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Braves | 6-4 | Win | 111 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Saturday. The Braves took the opener of this series with relative ease last night, cruising to a 6-2 victory. I'm expecting a tighter game on Saturday, however. Note that the Marlins have actually held opponents to just 2.6 runs on average, outscoring them by an average margin of 0.2 runs in 10 previous situations where they've been seeking triple-revenge this season, as is the case here. The Marlins are also a solid 15-7 when coming off three straight games in which they scored three runs or less this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.0 runs in that spot. Meanwhile, the Braves are 20-23 after winning four or five of their last six games this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 runs in that situation. They're also just 18-22 when playing at home off a win, outscored by 0.4 runs on average in that spot. While Atlanta appears to have a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup tonight, it's worth noting that Miami starter Elieser Hernandez has pitched well in limited work this season, recording a 1.03 WHIP in 27 1/3 innings. Take Miami +1.5 runs (8*). |
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09-11-21 | Calgary +1.5 v. Edmonton Elks | 32-16 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary plus the points over Edmonton at 7 pm et on Saturday. Barring any late setbacks, the Stampeders will welcome back QB Bo Levi Mitchell for Saturday's rematch with the Elks. I don't believe the Stamps would rush Mitchell back if he wasn't ready, noting that backup Jake Maier has performed admirably in his absence, throwing for over 300 yards in three straight games. Here, Calgary will be looking for quick revenge after suffering what ended as a lopsided result at home against the Elks on Monday. At 1-4 and given this is a shorter than usual season due to Covid, the Stamps need to turn things around in a hurry and I'm confident they will. Edmonton QB Trevor Harris has put up some terrific numbers over the last couple of games but I haven't been overly impressed by his play. Too many short passes only reaching the line of scrimmage, not really taking advantage of a terrific wide receiving corps. We did see the Elks open things up a bit on offense in the latter stages of Monday's contest but I'm not convinced we'll see a similar gameplan right out of the gate here. Note that the Stamps are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games when playing on the road off an upset loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 3.4 points on average in that situation. Take Calgary (8*). |
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09-11-21 | Purdue -34 v. Connecticut | 49-0 | Win | 100 | 28 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Connecticut at 3 pm et on Saturday. We cashed a ticket fading the Connecticut Huskies in their season-opener against Fresno State and probably should have gone back to the well again last week as they fell in their home-opener against FCS squad Holy Cross. As I noted at the start of the season, UConn was ravaged by transfers out of the program when it was announced it would sit out the entire 2020 campaign - and it's not as if the talent was there to begin with following a dismal 2019 season. Here, I expect the Huskies to get rolled by a good Purdue Boilermakers squad that is flying under the radar a little bit at this early stage of the season. Purdue shook off some early rust on offense to get past Oregon State by a 30-21 score last week. In that game, Purdue scored a first quarter touchdown before being held to three field goals in the second and third quarters. The good news is, the Boilers offense got on track in the fourth quarter, putting together two touchdown drives. Purdue's pass-catchers looked outstanding as that game progressed with David Bell and Payne Durham combining to catch 15 passes for 254 yards and a pair of touchdowns, both coming from super tight end Durham. RB Zander Horvath was as advertised despite only getting 21 carries as he gained 81 yards on the ground and found the end zone once. QB Jack Plummer took care of the football and threw for over 300 yards, essentially all that was asked from him in that contest. We saw Connecticut somewhat surprisingly put together three first half touchdown drives last week. The Huskies added a third quarter touchdown score but from there, couldn't do anything positive in the game's final 18 minutes, held off the scoreboard entirely in an eventual 10-point loss. Despite putting up 28 points, QB Jack Zergiotis completed just 17-of-41 passes with just one completion going for more than 15 yards. Now the Huskies will need to contend with a much tougher opponent, noting that the Boilers held Oregon State out of the end zone for a 41-minute stretch in last week's victory and should feast in Storrs on Saturday afternoon. Purdue gave up its share of big plays through the air against the Beavers last week but UConn isn't likely to pose the same type of challenge here. Take Purdue (10*). |
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09-11-21 | Illinois v. Virginia -10.5 | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Illinois at 11 am et on Saturday. Whatever positive momentum that Illinois had built in its season-opening upset win over Nebraska is gone after last week's 37-30 loss to UTSA - the Roadrunners first ever victory over a Big Ten program. The Illini are going to get better under head coach Bret Bielema but it's not going to happen overnight. The defense still has the fingerprints of Lovie Smith all over it and that was evident in last Saturday's loss to UTSA. In that game, Illinois allowed two touchdowns before the second quarter was even four minutes old. From there, the Roadrunners would put together five more scoring drives, including a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns when the Illini defense had a chance to rise up and take over the game. Offensively, the Illini weren't able to find the end zone until nearly six minutes into the second quarter. QB Artur Sitkowski bombed away for 42 pass attempts, competing only 22 of those for just 266 yards. For Bielema's offense to work the way it should he needs stability at the running back position. RB Mike Epstein looked like he could be that guy but after leaving last week's game with an undisclosed injury he's now expected to miss this Saturday's game as well. Virginia got the perfect tune-up for this one, rolling to a 43-0 victory over FCS squad William & Mary last week. The offense sputtered a bit in the early going but once it found it's rhythm it proved difficult to stop, scoring five touchdowns over the game's final three quarters. QB Brennan Armstrong was effective, throwing for 339 yards on 21 completions and did a nice job of taking care of the football, throwing two touchdowns and no interceptions. The emergence of former Mississippi State QB and now used predominantly at wide receiver and out of the backfield, Keytaon Thompson was a factor, running the ball four times for 43 yards while also catching five passes for 66 yards. This is a Cavaliers offense that has the potential to be dynamic, particularly against weaker defensive opponents such as the Illini. While Illinois does boast a solid pass rush, Cavs QB Armstrong has some mobility and I expect him to be able to stretch out some plays and ultimately take advantage of a weak Illini secondary. Defensively, the jury is still out as to how much better Virginia will be after a tough 2020 campaign. There's certainly nowhere to go but up and it was a positive sign that the longest play they gave up last week went for just 20 yards, despite the fact that William & Mary figured to be taking some chances down big. The Cavs didn't force a single fumble or interception in the game but I do expect turnovers to play a role in the outcome on Saturday against Illinois, presumably in Virginia's favor. Take Virginia (9*). |
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09-10-21 | Kansas v. Coastal Carolina -26 | Top | 22-49 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Coastal Carolina minus the points over Kansas at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for Coastal Carolina as despite its Top 25 ranking (which is well-deserved by the way) will get a rare opportunity to perform in front of a national audience, against a Power Five conference opponent, no less. I expect the Chanticleers to take full advantage. Kansas football has been a disaster for years now. To understand the state of the program, look no further than last week's game against FCS squad South Dakota. The Jayhawks won that game by a 17-14 score. At the end of the game the fans stormed the field. Yikes. Note that Kansas didn't manage to even score in that game until the final 30 seconds of the first half. That was only thanks to South Dakota handing it excellent field position due to a poor punt late in the first half. From there, the Jayhawks reach the end zone again until the final 1:10 of the fourth quarter. Now Kansas heads on the road to face a Coastal Carolina squad that laid waste to FCS foe Citadel in their season-opener last week. A stark contrast to Kansas, the Chanticleers went full throttle offensively from start to finish in that game. They were ahead 21-0 midway through the second quarter and entered halftime with a 31-0 cushion. They didn't allow a single score until the game was already well in hand, up 38-0 with just over six minutes remaining in the third quarter. I liked the way Coastal Carolina continued to pour it on, even scoring a touchdown in the game's final three minutes. This is a Chanticleers squad that is loaded with returning talent on both sides of the football and eager to prove that last season was no fluke, not Covid-assisted. Expect a rout on Friday night. Take Coastal Carolina (10*). |
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09-08-21 | Nationals +1.5 v. Braves | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday. The Nats may simply be playing out the string at this point but it's not as if they've quit on the season. That was evident in last night's wild 8-5 loss as they rallied back from a late 5-1 deficit only to eventually fall by a three-run margin. Here, we're being offered a generous price to back the Nats with an insurance run in our pockets. Note that the Braves are just 20-27 after scoring eight runs or more in a game over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 runs in that spot. They're also just 17-21 at home off a win this season, outscored by 0.5 runs on average in that situation. For whatever reason, the Nats have been outstanding on the road in Wednesday games this season, averaging a whopping 7.9 runs per game and outscoring opponents by 3.4 runs on average while reeling off seven wins in eight games. Also note that the Nats have outscored opponents by 0.5 runs on average when playing on the road with double revenge, as is the case here. There's no real edge in terms of starting pitching in this one while the Braves bullpen has converted just 13 saves while blowing 13 as well here at home. Take Washington +1.5 runs (8*). |
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09-07-21 | Angels +1.5 v. Padres | 4-0 | Win | 150 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The price is simply too good to pass up as we're being given an insurance run with the Angels at a plus-money return on Tuesday. Note that while Blake Snell has been terrific for the Padres lately, he checks in sporting a 7-13 team record after allowing two earned runs or less in consecutive starts over the last three seasons with his teams outscored by 0.9 runs on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Angels enter this game having gone a perfect 7-0 after scoring four runs or less in five straight games this season, averaging a whopping 7.3 runs per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.9 runs in that spot. Despite their overall losing record, the Halos are also 25-18 after scoring two runs or less in a game this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.3 runs on average in that situation. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (6*). |
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09-07-21 | Mystics v. Storm -9 | 71-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Washington at 10 pm et on Tuesday. This line has fallen back into playable range with the Storm now laying single-digits against the reeling Mystics. Washington has shot better than 45.5% from the field just once since mid-June. Meanwhile, the Mystics defense has tanked, allowing four straight opponents to shoot 47.8% or better from the field. Seattle has also allowed consecutive opponents to shoot a lofty 48.2% or better from the field. I believe the Storm turn it around here, however, as they come well rested having not played since September 2nd, with that contest coming here at home as well. The Storm haven't shot better than 50% from the field in a game since back on June 11th. I expect them to approach that here, however, noting that Washington has allowed four of its last eight opponents to shoot better than 50%. Take Seattle (9*). |
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09-07-21 | Phillies v. Brewers +1.5 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Brewers were in line for a letdown yesterday after a wild come-from-behind walk-off win on Sunday and that's precisely what happened as they had their doors blown off by the Phillies. Now they're set up well to bounce back and we're being afforded the opportunity to back them with a one-run cushion at a reasonable price. Note that Philadelphia is just 12-22 after allowing two runs or less in a game this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.6 runs in that spot. The Phillies are 29-44 after winning a game by four runs or more over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 runs. Also note that Philadelphia has allowed a whopping 7.3 runs on average and has been outscored by an average margin of 1.9 runs after allowing four runs or less in three consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. You would have to go back six starts to find the last time Phillies starter Aaron Nola was on the mound for a victory by more than a single run. He hasn't guided Philadelphia to a win by multiple runs here in Milwaukee since his first career outing here back in 2016. Take Milwaukee +1.5 runs (7*). |
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09-07-21 | Japan -1.75 v. China PR | 1-0 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Japan -1.5 goals over China PR at 11 am et on Tuesday. Japan is a top-25 ranked international squad according to FIFA rankings. It certainly didn't look the part in an absolutely dreadful performance against Oman last time out. Japan suffered a 1-0 defeat in that match, despite being heavily favored heading in. Here, Japan is once again a significant favorite, but this time around, I'm anticipating a much different result. China was completely outclassed by Australia in its last match, suffering a 3-0 setback. It managed just 38% of the possession and didn't register a single shot on goal in the loss. There's little reason to expect much improvement here. Note that the damage could have been much worse last time out had Australia not jumped ahead 2-0 so early and essentially 'parked the bus' from there. Japan isn't likely to ease off the gas with goal differential a consideration off the shutout loss to Oman. A much tougher test awaits against Australia and the Japanese will certainly want to ramp up prior to that match - which comes after another difficult test away from home against Saudi Arabia. If your book offers alternate lines, consider backing Japan at -1.5 rather than the standard -1.75 being offered, ensuring you cash should it win by exactly two goals. Take Japan -1.5 goals (10*). |
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09-05-21 | Rangers +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
MLB Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I like the way this one sets up for the Rangers after they dropped the first two games in this series. Note that as bad as things have gone for the Rangers, particularly on the road, they haven't lost three consecutive games against an opponent away from home since back on August 6th-8th against Oakland. The A's are obviously in a class above today's opponent, the Angels. You would have to go back to July 2nd-4th to find the last time the Angels recorded three straight home wins against an opponent - those coming against the Orioles. Here, we find Los Angeles having gone 3-10, outscored by 1.9 runs on average, when coming off consecutive games in which it allowed two runs or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Angels have received solid outings from their starting pitchers so far in this series but this is probably a bullpen game for them with Janson Junk making his big league debut. The Angels 'pen owns a collective 5.31 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in day games this season and checks in overworked having logged a whopping 32 innings over their last seven games. Take Texas +1.5 runs (10*). |
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09-04-21 | New Mexico State v. San Diego State -31 | Top | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over New Mexico State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. We successfully faded New Mexico State in its first real game action since the 2019 season last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well as it takes another step up in class in its first road test of the season against San Diego State. The Aggies did little right in last week's 30-3 drubbing at the hands of UTEP. There's little reason to expect another week of practice will change anything. The questions start at quarterback where neither Jonah Johnson or Weston Eget appear to be the answer under center. The duo combined to complete a woeful 9-of-33 passes for 89 yards in last week's lopsided loss. The ground game didn't work either as no NMSU back ran for more than 4.1 yards per carry. Backup QB Weston Eget had the team's longest rush of the game and that went for just 19 yards in garbage time. The final score actually could have been much uglier were it not for UTEP committing a whopping 12 penalties for 140 yards. Penalties were really the only way that NMSU was able to move the football down the field. The Aggies did manage two interceptions as well but that's not something we can bank on again this week as they face an Aztecs squad that is likely to pound away with its elite ground attack for much of the night. The Aztecs missed playing in a Bowl game for the first time in a decade last season with an injury to RB Greg Bell essentially derailing their campaign. Bell is back this year, along with five other players that have found their way onto the Reese's Senior Bowl Watch List. While San Diego State isn't exactly set at quarterback with Jordon Brookshire - last year's fourth-stringer at the position - winning the job. All indications are that Brookshire won the job convincingly and the Senior QB will be afforded a favorable matchup to open the season here, noting that the Aggies didn't record a single sack in last week's loss to UTEP. Brookshire has plenty of talent around him with an elite backfield not to mention all seven leading wide receivers from a year ago back in the mix and TE Daniel Bellinger, who could very well have an NFL career ahead of him. This is obviously a steep number but I'm not sure the oddsmakers or the betting majority realize just how bad this Aggies squad is - not yet, at least. Last week's opponent, UTEP, entered the season hoping that it could sneak into a Bowl game and a win over NMSU was imperative. San Diego State on the other hand, has loftier goals, believing it can contend for a Mountain West Conference title after last year's disappointment. Look for the Aztecs to win in convincing fashion in Week 1. Take San Diego State (10*). |
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09-04-21 | Syracuse v. Ohio +1 | 29-9 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ohio plus the points over Syracuse at 7 pm et on Saturday. Most are calling this a 'must-win' game for Dino Babers and the Syracuse Orange. But as we all know, motivation is rarely enough. I simply feel this is a favorable matchup for an Ohio squad that only got to play three games last season. The Bobcats return plenty of talent on both sides of the football. I really like the way they're set up at the skill positions on offense. Kurtis Rourke is expected to start at quarterback but former UNLV transfer Armani Rogers will play a role as well. Keep in mind, Rogers was able to learn the Bobcats offense last year, getting into their three games and enjoying some success both on the ground and through the air. The running back situation is even better with De'Montre Tuggle and O'Shaan Allison poised to take another step forward. Tim Albin is the new head coach but he's by no means new to the program as he served as the offensive coordinator. He won't change much from what legendary now-retired head coach Frank Solich was doing and that's a positive thing. Syracuse has two capable quarterbacks but Tommy DeVito has yet to show the consistency needed to succeed at this level (offensive line issues have certainly played a role) and Garrett Shrader transfers in from Mississippi State and is still learning the offense. The Orange defense was awful a year ago. Plenty of key pieces are back but the secondary still looks like it could be a weak spot and Ohio has the receivers to take advantage. Syracuse obviously won't go away quietly in this game but I believe the betting marketplace in general is sleeping on this Ohio squad, which has a lot of winnable games on its 2021 schedule. This happens to be one of them. Take Ohio (9*). |
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09-04-21 | San Jose State +14 v. USC | 7-30 | Loss | -109 | 78 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose State plus the points over USC at 5 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Spartans Week 0 rout of FCS squad Southern Utah. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back San Jose State as it hits the road for the first time this season, making the trip to Los Angeles to face the mighty USC Trojans. This Spartans team is the real deal. They pulled off a stunner in the Mountain West Conference Championship last year, defeating Boise State with relative ease. They have unfinished business to take care off this season, however, as they couldn't quite wrap up a perfect season, falling to Ball State in the Arizona Bowl. San Jose State is loaded with returning talent on both sides of the football QB Nick Starkel is back to lead the offense with speedy RB Tyler Nevens in the backfield. Both went off in last week's rout, with Starkel throwing for just shy of 400 yards and four touchdowns (to go along with one interception) without barely breaking a sweat and Nevens gaining 91 yards and a score on the ground on just 12 carries. The wide receiving corps had some question marks heading into last week's opener, more specifically who would step up and pick up the slack with two of last year's top targets gone. All that group did against Southern Utah was explode with four different receivers picking up individual game-long catches of 40+ yards. Needless to say, the Spartans will be facing a much tougher challenge this week as they face power program USC. It is worth noting, however, that the Trojans are coming off a bad year (by their standards) defensively and have to replace a number of key parts. I'm just not convinced we're going to see USC suddenly flip the switch and become a dominant defense again here in Week 1 of the 2021 season. San Jose State's defense was incredible a year ago and gets 10 starters back from that team. We saw flashes of brilliance again in Week 0 as the Spartans 'D' manhandled an overmatched Jaguars offense. Again, this is a completely different situation heading out on the road to face an explosive Trojans offense. With that being said, I believe San Jose State has it all on the defensive side of the football and can at the very least minimize the effectiveness of this loaded Trojans offense, that like the defense, does have some needs entering the new season. To me, the Spartans have the look of a team that's poised for big things this year but it can't go out and get drilled by USC if it wants to reach its loftiest goals. You could see in the second half of last week's contest that San Jose State had already moved on to this game mentally and I believe that drubbing of Southern Utah serves as the perfect tune-up heading into this showdown. While an outright upset certainly isn't outside the realm of possibility, we'll grab the generous helping of points with the Spartans and expect a competitive affair throughout. Take San Jose State (10*). |
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09-04-21 | Temple v. Rutgers -14.5 | Top | 14-61 | Win | 100 | 48 h 24 m | Show |
CFB on BTN Game of the Year. My selection is on Rutgers minus the points over Temple at 3 pm et on Saturday. NOTE: This game was moved from Thursday to Saturday. We'll stick with our original play on Rutgers. Bettors are generally 'Rutgers-averse' as in they're not all that interested in backing the Scarlet Knights thanks to years of futility in Piscataway. Last season, the Knights actually made some headway despite a 3-6 overall record as they were highly-competitive and could have just as easily won six or seven games. Now, with their sights set on a possible Bowl game, I look for the Knights to get off to a strong start in their home opener against Temple. The Owls were one of the weakest teams in the nation in a unique Covid-tinged 2020 season. They finished 10th in the AAC, averaging just 20 points per game. The hope is that Georgia transfer D'Wan Mathis can be the answer at quarterback. He was the opening day starter for the mighty Bulldogs last year but struggled against Arkansas and only appeared in two more games before deciding to transfer. Mathis got that season-opening start due to necessity only as the Bulldogs were dealing with injuries at the position. Now he needs to learn a new offense and doesn't exactly have a cupboard full of weapons to work with. Re-al Mitchell could eat into some of Mathis' snaps. Keep in mind, Mitchell couldn't win the starting job last year, even after Anthony Russo went down to injury. Standout RB Re'Man Davis is gone. The owls coaching staff is saying all the right things when it comes to the Owls backfield options but they're also talking about a running back by committee approach. That tells me there's no true standout in the backfield entering the season. Defensively, the Owls got torched throughout the 2020 season. Now they lose their sack leader from a year ago, along with three defensive tackles. Two corners are gone as well, from a group that couldn't come up with any big plays with just three interceptions all season. Rutgers on the other hand is loaded with returning talent on the offensive side of the football. I like the stability and continuity of this group which will be led by QB Noah Vedral. He was asked to do a little too much last year and ultimately threw just nine touchdowns and eight interceptions. I expect a different story to unfold this year as he can let the likes of RB Isaih Pacheco and the outstanding WR duo of Bo Melton and Aron Cruickshank go to work. The o-line was an issue a year ago but gets all five starters back and there's really nowhere to go but up. This is a favorable matchup for that unit to ease its way into the new season as the Owls aren't likely to have a dominant pass rush. There are a couple of key losses for the Scarlet Knights to deal with on defense but they return the bulk of the unit that did enough last season to provide some optimism entering 2021. The Knights actually scooped one of Temple's best defenders from a year ago in the transfer portal in Ifeanyi Maijeh. He might not even earn a starting job which tells you that the Knights boast plenty of talent on the defensive line. They're loaded at linebacker and have something to build on in the secondary with a pair of corners that earned honorable mentions on the All-Big Ten list last season. I expect this defense to make progress this season, and like the o-line, it gets a favorable opening week matchup against a Temple offense that isn't likely to come out firing on all cylinders. If Rutgers is going to make a run at a Bowl game, this is a game it needs to win. With Syracuse and Delaware on deck there's a real chance for the Scarlet Knights to get off to a strong start before the schedule really toughens up in late September. I believe there's a class difference that simply isn't being represented with this line sitting under two touchdowns (at the time of writing). Take Rutgers (10*). |
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09-03-21 | North Carolina -5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 14 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Virginia Tech at 6 pm et on Friday. A trip to Blacksburg isn't nearly as daunting as it once was. I love the way this one sets up for the Tar Heels who have their sights set on some lofty goals once again this season. North Carolina loses plenty of talent to the NFL - that's simply the sign of a great college team. The best programs don't need to rebuild, they simply reload, and I think that's the case with Mack Brown's Tar Heels. QB Sam Howell is back to run the offense and despite losing a host of talent at the running back and wide receiver positions, I expect this high-octane attack to keep humming along. This is obviously a big season for Howell as he's likely to be a highly-touted NFL draft pick next spring. First things first, he looks to guide this Tar Heels squad to another stellar campaign. While plenty of names have moved on, the cupboard is by no means bare. RB Ty Chandler transfers in from Tennessee and should run wild behind an offensive line that was terrific at opening up holes for the ground game last season and returns all five starters this year. There are questions at the wide receiver position but this is very much a 'plug-and-play' type offense and there's a host of talented receivers that have simply been waiting for their opportunity to step out of the shadows and into the spotlight. It shouldn't take long for this offense to start piling up points. The Tar Heels defense loses standout LB Chazz Surratt but that's about it. There's talent and experience all over the field. While the North Carolina offense gets all the press, the defense can play as well and I expect it to come out and make a statement against an overmatched Hokies offense here. Virginia Tech has managed to go just 19-18 SU over the last three seasons under head coach Justin Fuente. Keep in mind, the Hokies went 19-8 in Fuente's first two seasons as he reaped the benefits of Frank Beamer recruits. If it weren't for standout RB Khalil Herbert, the Hokies probably wouldn't have won five games last year. He's gone so now someone else will need to step up. Unfortunately, the Hokies don't have the benefit of a transfer like Chandler for the Tar Heels. The biggest issue might be on the offensive line where Virginia Tech lost two of its best starters to the transfer portal. It's going to take some time for the new look o-line to come together - the problem is the Hokies won't have the benefit of time here in Week 1 as the Tar Heels are capable of scoring in bunches. Virginia Tech's defense returns just six starters from a year ago. This simply isn't the same feared Hokies defense from the Frank Beamer era. Last season, Virginia Tech gave up just shy of 450 total yards per game and 32 points per contest. I'll admit, it's likely we'll see an improved defense here in 2021. Jordan Williams transfers in from Clemson to anchor the defensive line but there are still holes that I believe the Tar Heels will be able to expose over the course of four quarters on Friday. All of North Carolina's road games this season are winnable, with the toughest test coming at Notre Dame on the final Saturday in October. If the Tar Heels are going to reach their goals, they need to get off to a fast start and I'm certain the Hokies will have their full attention this week. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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08-31-21 | Yankees -1.5 v. Angels | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
A.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. I love the way the Yankees are set up to bounce back from last night's series-opening loss here in Anaheim on Tuesday. In fact, New York has dropped three games in a row following an extended winning streak. Don't expect the Yanks losing ways to continue here as they look to tee off on Anaheim starter Jaime Barria. He's by no means a long-term solution in the Angels starting rotation. He's been used out of necessity this season, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. While those numbers aren't all bad, the wheels have come off lately as he has recorded a 9.72 ERA and 2.52 WHIP over his last three outings, covering a span of just 8 1/3 innings of work. Barria isn't fooling anyone right now, topping out at five strikeouts over his last seven starts. It's not as if the Halos bullpen is likely to rescue Barria here, noting that the L.A. relief corps has posted a collective 5.49 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over their last seven games. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for New York. Like Barria, he has struggled lately. However, he faces an Angels lineup that has been a true 'feast-or-famine' group lately. The Yankees check in 7-5 in Taillon's 12 road starts this season. The big difference here is that behind Taillon is a capable Yankees bullpen that has posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with an incredible 24:7 save conversion ratio on the road this season. There's reason to believe the Yankees bats can eventually stretch out the winning margin in this one so we'll lay the extra run. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-30-21 | Astros v. Mariners +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Houston at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Mariners picked up a much-needed victory to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Royals yesterday afternoon. Now I look for them to build some positive momentum as they open a home series against the Astros on Monday. Luis Garcia will get the nod for Houston. He's admittedly pitched well this season, but much of his success has come at home. In 11 road starts he has recorded a 4.97 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with the Astros winning just six of his 13 starts. Note that the M's will be seeing him for the third time this season and in their most recent look they got to him early and often, scoring five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in an 11-8 victory here in Seattle. Chris Flexen, like Garcia, has also been better at home than on the road this season. Lately though, it hasn't mattered where he has pitched, he's been rock solid. Flexen has posted a 1.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his last three outings - all Seattle victories. He is winless in two outings against Houston this season but catches the Astros at the right time here as they've plated just 26 runs over their last seven games combined. While the M's bullpen has quietly posted a 1.07 WHIP at home this season, the Astros 'pen has recorded a 1.50 WHIP on the road (entering yesterday's action). Take Seattle +1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-29-21 | Browns v. Falcons +6 | 19-10 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Cleveland at 8 pm et on Sunday. The Falcons have looked awful in their first two preseason games. They'll have a shot at redeeming themselves on Sunday night as they host the 2-0 Browns in front of a national audience. Note that Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski has surprisingly announced that QB Baker Mayfield and a 'select group' of starters will play in this game - an about face after the majority of his starters hadn't played a single snap in the first two preseason games. I'm still not expecting much more than a cameo appearance from Browns starters here. Falcons first-year head coach Arthur Smith has also suggested that some of his starters will play on Sunday night. Again, don't expect much more than a cameo appearance. Atlanta essentially punted last week's game in Miami, attempting just 15 passes in a 37-17 loss. Smith will certainly want his team to go into the season feeling good about themselves. Note that while the Browns are 2-0 they've faced the Jaguars and Giants - two teams that enter Week 3 sporting a combined 0-4 record. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-06-21 | UL-Monroe v. Texas State -3.5 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
11-06-21 | Lightning v. Senators +1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
11-06-21 | Liberty v. Ole Miss -8 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
11-05-21 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Ducks | 1-3 | Loss | -160 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
11-05-21 | Spurs -3.5 v. Magic | 102-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
11-05-21 | Nets v. Pistons +10.5 | 96-90 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +6 | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
11-03-21 | Raptors v. Wizards -3 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
11-02-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Astros | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 34 h 20 m | Show | |
11-01-21 | Bulls v. Celtics -1 | Top | 128-114 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
11-01-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -5.5 | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
10-30-21 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma -19 | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
10-30-21 | Cincinnati -26 v. Tulane | 31-12 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
10-28-21 | Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 28 m | Show |
10-28-21 | South Florida v. East Carolina -9.5 | Top | 14-29 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
10-27-21 | Cavs v. Clippers -8 | 92-79 | Loss | -101 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
10-27-21 | Hawks v. Pelicans +6 | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
10-24-21 | Celtics -5 v. Rockets | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
10-24-21 | Lions v. Rams -16 | Top | 19-28 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 1 m | Show |
10-24-21 | Falcons v. Dolphins +2.5 | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
10-23-21 | Islanders v. Coyotes +1.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -170 | 31 h 36 m | Show | |
10-23-21 | UTSA v. Louisiana Tech +6.5 | Top | 45-16 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
10-23-21 | Temple v. South Florida -2 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 32 h 59 m | Show | |
10-22-21 | Washington -17.5 v. Arizona | 21-16 | Loss | -108 | 56 h 41 m | Show | |
10-21-21 | San Jose State v. UNLV +5 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 27 m | Show |
10-21-21 | Oilers v. Coyotes +1.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
10-21-21 | Broncos +3 v. Browns | 14-17 | Push | 0 | 32 h 2 m | Show | |
10-21-21 | Bucks v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 95-137 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10-20-21 | Celtics v. Knicks -2 | Top | 134-138 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
10-20-21 | Astros +1.5 v. Red Sox | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
10-19-21 | Ducks v. Oilers -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
10-19-21 | Panthers +1.5 v. Lightning | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +3.5 | 35-29 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
10-17-21 | Texans v. Colts -10 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
10-17-21 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
10-16-21 | Arizona State v. Utah +1 | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 36 h 20 m | Show | |
10-16-21 | Colorado State -10.5 v. New Mexico | 36-7 | Win | 100 | 33 h 59 m | Show | |
10-16-21 | Montreal -5.5 v. Ottawa | 27-16 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
10-15-21 | San Diego State v. San Jose State +8 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 86 h 32 m | Show |
10-13-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
10-11-21 | Ottawa +9.5 v. Montreal | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -103 | 33 h 57 m | Show |
10-10-21 | Rays +1.5 v. Red Sox | 4-6 | Loss | -200 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
10-10-21 | Browns v. Chargers -2 | 42-47 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
10-09-21 | Connecticut v. UMass +3 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
10-09-21 | Virginia v. Louisville -2.5 | 34-33 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 6 m | Show | |
10-09-21 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss -5 | 51-52 | Loss | -111 | 50 h 57 m | Show | |
10-08-21 | Stanford v. Arizona State -12.5 | Top | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
10-08-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Brewers | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
10-07-21 | Coastal Carolina -19 v. Arkansas State | Top | 52-20 | Win | 100 | 60 h 15 m | Show |
10-07-21 | Houston v. Tulane +7 | 40-22 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
10-06-21 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
10-03-21 | Seahawks +2.5 v. 49ers | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show |
10-03-21 | Texans v. Bills -17 | Top | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 48 h 5 m | Show |
10-02-21 | Connecticut +15.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
10-02-21 | Indians v. Rangers +1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
10-02-21 | Baylor +4 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 18 m | Show |
10-02-21 | Syracuse v. Florida State -4.5 | 30-33 | Loss | -120 | 29 h 43 m | Show | |
10-02-21 | Louisville v. Wake Forest -6.5 | 34-37 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 32 m | Show | |
09-28-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
09-26-21 | Dolphins +4 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
09-25-21 | Buffalo -13 v. Old Dominion | 35-34 | Loss | -116 | 58 h 25 m | Show | |
09-25-21 | Kent State v. Maryland -14 | 16-37 | Win | 100 | 53 h 56 m | Show | |
09-25-21 | Ohio +14.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 6-35 | Loss | -107 | 49 h 41 m | Show |
09-24-21 | Mariners v. Angels +1.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
09-19-21 | Vikings +4 v. Cardinals | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
09-19-21 | Tigers +1.5 v. Rays | 2-0 | Win | 120 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
09-19-21 | Texans v. Browns -12.5 | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -106 | 75 h 47 m | Show |
09-19-21 | Bills -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 35-0 | Win | 100 | 75 h 31 m | Show |
09-19-21 | Bengals v. Bears -1 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
09-18-21 | Baylor -17.5 v. Kansas | Top | 45-7 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
09-18-21 | Virginia Tech v. West Virginia -2.5 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 49 h 45 m | Show | |
09-17-21 | Maryland -7.5 v. Illinois | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -109 | 38 h 51 m | Show |
09-16-21 | Ohio v. UL-Lafayette -20 | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show | |
09-14-21 | Fever v. Dream -2.5 | 78-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
09-14-21 | Indians +1.5 v. Twins | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
09-13-21 | Red Sox v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams -7.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
09-12-21 | Jaguars -3 v. Texans | Top | 21-37 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
09-12-21 | 49ers -7.5 v. Lions | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show | |
09-12-21 | Steelers v. Bills -6.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
09-11-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Braves | 6-4 | Win | 111 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
09-11-21 | Calgary +1.5 v. Edmonton Elks | 32-16 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
09-11-21 | Purdue -34 v. Connecticut | 49-0 | Win | 100 | 28 h 43 m | Show | |
09-11-21 | Illinois v. Virginia -10.5 | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
09-10-21 | Kansas v. Coastal Carolina -26 | Top | 22-49 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
09-08-21 | Nationals +1.5 v. Braves | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
09-07-21 | Angels +1.5 v. Padres | 4-0 | Win | 150 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
09-07-21 | Mystics v. Storm -9 | 71-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
09-07-21 | Phillies v. Brewers +1.5 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
09-07-21 | Japan -1.75 v. China PR | 1-0 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
09-05-21 | Rangers +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
09-04-21 | New Mexico State v. San Diego State -31 | Top | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 52 m | Show |
09-04-21 | Syracuse v. Ohio +1 | 29-9 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
09-04-21 | San Jose State +14 v. USC | 7-30 | Loss | -109 | 78 h 31 m | Show | |
09-04-21 | Temple v. Rutgers -14.5 | Top | 14-61 | Win | 100 | 48 h 24 m | Show |
09-03-21 | North Carolina -5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 14 m | Show |
08-31-21 | Yankees -1.5 v. Angels | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
08-30-21 | Astros v. Mariners +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
08-29-21 | Browns v. Falcons +6 | 19-10 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |