Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-24-22 | Pacers +12.5 v. Grizzlies | 103-133 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pacers suffered a disappointing home loss to the lowly Kings last night, snapping a two-game winning streak. I look for them to bounce back with a better performance against a much tougher opponents in Memphis on Thursday. Note that the Pacers continue to thrive offensively, making good on 41+ field goals in eight straight games entering Thursday's contest. On the flip side, we've seen Indiana hold its last three opponents to 79, 81 and 82 field goal attempts. I don't need to tell you that if they're able to continue that trend here it will be awfully tough for the Grizzlies to cover such a lofty pointspread. Memphis is coming off a dominant win over the Nets at home last night. Like the Pacers, they've continued to roll offensively, however they've actually allowed 41+ made field goals in four of their last five contests - only the reeling Rockets failed to reach that mark over that stretch. Here, I think there's a good chance we see Memphis 'manage' proceedings, noting that it has a four-game in six-night stretch on deck, beginning Saturday against the defending champion Bucks. Take Indiana (9*). |
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03-24-22 | Arkansas +9.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Gonzaga at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Arkansas enters this showdown with Gonzaga having dropped the cash in three straight games so this is a slam dunk for the number-one ranked Bulldogs, right? I'm not so sure. The Razorbacks have thrived in the role of underdog, going a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games in that role. The Hogs are here despite knocking down just 14 field goals against New Mexico State. Only once previously this season did they make good on fewer than 20 field goals in a game (they still won that contest against Tennessee). In their next game following that poor shooting performance, they knocked down 29-of-63 field goal attempts in an 82-74 win at Florida. Here, the Hogs should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities, noting that Gonzaga yields a ton of FG attempts, generally between 60-70 per game (an average of 65 away from home this season). Of course, the Razorbacks haven't been a great shooting team this season but they 'find a way' getting to the free throw line at an incredible rate. There's certainly room for some regression from the Zags offense here after shooting 51% and 52% in their first two games in this tournament. Arkansas certainly poses a challenge defensively, ranking 14th in the country according to KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric. The Razorbacks check in having allowed 53 or fewer FG attempts in three of their last five games. I like the 'no one believes in us' angle that underdogs of this nature tend to carry at this point of the tournament, and that's certainly been played up by Hogs head coach Eric Musselman in the days leading up to this game. I look for this one to go down to the wire. Take Arkansas (10*). |
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03-23-22 | 76ers -7 v. Lakers | Top | 126-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Lakers are coming off a surprising double-digit win on Monday night in Cleveland. Perhaps that victory shouldn't have come as much of a surprise, however, given Lebron James is obviously always going to get up for homecoming games, not to mention the fact that the Cavs have been playing an uneven brand of basketball for weeks now. We should see a different story unfold on Wednesday as the Lakers return home to host the 76ers. Philadelphia posted a seven-point win over Miami as an eight-point underdog on Monday (without Joel Embiid and James Harden). The Sixers have been smothering opposing offenses, holding four of their last five opponents to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. Their last four opponents have managed to knock down only 39, 37, 35 and 38 field goals. That's a stark contrast to the Lakers non-existent defense, which has yielded 40, 49, 44 and 45 made field goals over its last four contests. Yes, L.A. has gone off offensively over its last few games but it will be taking a step up in class here against a 76ers defense that allows an average of 39-for-85 shooting on the road this season, including just 11-of-33 from three-point range. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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03-23-22 | Washington State v. BYU -3 | Top | 77-58 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Year. My selection is on BYU minus the points over Washington State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I don't believe BYU is getting enough respect given how well it has played over the last month. The Cougars check in 5-2 SU and ATS over their last seven contests with their only two losses over that stretch coming against NCAA Tournament-bound teams in St. Mary's and San Francisco. While Washington State has been playing well also, having won six of its last seven overall, it has also caught some good fortune along the way, particularly here in the NIT as its last two opponents have combined to shoot a woeful 40-of-118 from the field. Some of that can obviously be chalked up to good defense, but I'm of the belief that sometimes the shots just don't fall (note that prior to its last two contests, Washington State had allowed 25+ made field goals in five of its last seven games). Note that the Cougars of Washington State have actually afforded their opponents plenty of scoring opportunities, yielding 64, 61, 60 and 58 field goal attempts over their last four games. Give BYU that many chances and it will take advantage, noting that the Cougars are scorching hot right now, having made good on 32+ field goals in four of their last six games and and incredible 72-for-134 from the field over their last two contests alone. Meanwhile, the BYU defense has done a good job of limiting its opponents opportunities, allowing 58 or fewer FG attempts in four straight games. Keep in mind, Washington State has struggled to knock down its shots all season, particularly away from home where it averages only 24-of-61 shooting. By contrast, BYU has averaged four more field goals per game on one fewer attempt here at home (28-of-60). Take BYU (10*). |
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03-23-22 | Devils v. Maple Leafs -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -121 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto -1.5 goals over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I expect to see a real sense of urgency from the Leafs on Wednesday given the fact they were recently tripped up in a few expected wins against league bottom-feeders (two losses against Buffalo and one against Arizona). Here they catch the Devils in a favorable spot noting that New Jersey is 0-7 when coming off a win by two goals or more against a division opponent this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that situation. When playing on the road after consecutive games that totalled 7+ goals, we've seen the Devils go a miserable 1-10, outscored by 2.4 goals on average in that spot. As for the Leafs, they've been excellent when returning home following a road game, going 14-1 in that spot while outscoring the opposition by 2.0 goals on average this season. Again, I expect to see a sense of urgency from the Leafs here after getting shelled 6-3 in Nashville on Saturday. Take Toronto -1.5 goals (8*). |
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03-21-22 | Northern Colorado v. North Carolina-Asheville +1.5 | Top | 87-84 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
CBI Game of the Year. My selection is on UNC-Asheville plus the points over Northern Colorado at 3:30 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams staged upset victories in their respective opening round CBI matchups. I look for UNC-Asheville to be the team playing on following Monday's clash at Daytona Beach. Asheville has been nothing if not consistent offensively, making good on 25+ field goals in eight of its last nine games. While it has proven vulnerable defensively it hasn't shown a tendency to let opponents get out and run recently, limiting five of its last seven opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. That's a stark contrast to Northern Colorado, which has given up 60+ FG attempts in four of its last five games and 70+ in two of its last three contests. Northern Colorado relies heavily on the three-ball to support its offense and that's notable as UNC-Asheville checks in allowing just five made threes per game away from home this season. We've certainly seen some inconsistency from the Bears lately as they're just one game removed from making good on only 19 field goals in an 88-67 loss to Montana State. They've been held to 57 or fewer FG attempts in four of their last six games overall. There's little reason to think Asheville won't be able to 'fill it up' here, with the Bears yielding 25+ made field goals in seven of their last eight games and 28+ in half of those contests. You could certainly argue that Northern Colorado is fortunate to still be playing, surviving against Florida Atlantic last time out despite the Owls getting off 14 more FG attempts in a game that went right down to the wire. Asheville is'nt likely to beat itself here, noting that it has been quite disciplined away from home this season, sending opponents to the free throw line only 15 times per contest while getting there 20 times per game itself. Take UNC-Asheville (10*). |
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03-20-22 | Miami-FL +7.5 v. Auburn | Top | 79-61 | Win | 100 | 35 h 25 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Auburn at 7:45 pm et on Sunday. At 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games, the Miami Hurricanes have been one of the best bets in the country over the last month-plus. I certainly don't expect them to back down against the Auburn Tigers - one of the favorites to win the National Championship - on Sunday. Miami has been doing a terrific job of limiting its opponents' scoring opportunities and that continued against USC in the opening round. The Canes have held 10 of their last 12 opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts. While a number of their recent opponents have made the most of their opportunities, I'm not convinced we'll see Auburn do that here. Note that the Tigers have made good on 28 or fewer field goals in seven straight games, despite getting off 61 or more attempts in all but two of those contests. On the flip side, Auburn's relatively fast-pace does afford opponents plenty of scoring opportunities, as it checks in having yielded 61, 67, 64, 57 and 61 field goal attempts over its last five contests. Miami figures to take advantage, noting that the Canes have knocked down 28+ field goals in nine of their last 10 contests. I actually see this one playing out similarly to the Canes recent ACC Tournament matchup with Duke - a game in which they scored 76 points and lost by only four points. Take Miami (10*). |
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03-20-22 | Stars +1.5 v. Capitals | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas +1.5 goals over Washington at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. The Stars check in off a 4-2 loss to the Islanders yesterday but I look for them to bounce back against the red hot Capitals on Sunday in Washington. The Caps have won four games in a row but are in a bit of a tough spot here, noting that they've gone just 5-10 when playing at home off a win this season, outscored by 0.3 goals on average in that situation. Worse still, they're 3-7 when playing at home after scoring 3+ goals in three straight games this season, as is the case here, outscored by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. Additionally, they're 0-5 when playing at home after scoring four or more goals in consecutive games, which is also the case here, allowing 4.0 goals on average while being outscored by an average of 1.6 goals in that spot. Dallas, meanwhile, is 9-2 when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 4+ goals this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal on average along the way. Take Dallas +1.5 goals (6*). |
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03-19-22 | Lakers v. Wizards -1.5 | 119-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Both teams are in a back-to-back spot here and while the Lakers check in off an overtime win over the Raptors, the Wizards are coming off their sixth consecutive loss. I like Washington to bounce back here, however, as it returns home before heading out on the road for another three. The Wizards offense has gotten bogged down lately, attempting 87 or fewer field goals in 10 straight games, winning only twice over that stretch. Here, it should benefit from a lot more scoring opportunities against a Lakers squad that has had no ability, or interest in controlling opponents' tempo, yielding 90+ FG attempts in seven of their last nine contests. This is a quick rematch between these two teams after the Lakers won by 13 in Los Angeles last Friday. L.A. shot the lights out in that game but I expect a different story to unfold here, noting that the Lakers average just 109.0 points per game when coming off a win this season (2.1 points per game less than their season scoring average), outscored by 3.8 points on average in that spot. Take Washington (8*). |
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03-18-22 | Clippers +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 92-121 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Clippers enter Friday's game in Utah off consecutive losses but extended losing streaks have certainly not been common for them this season, with their longest lasting just three games. I expect them to bounce back here against an undermanned Jazz squad that will be without both Donovan Mitchell and Bojan Bogdanovic (that duo combined to shoot 17-of-25 in the most recent meeting between these two teams in December). While Los Angeles has lost back-to-back games, I like what I've seen from it defensively as it has limited its last three opponents to just 80, 86 and 83 field goal attempts. Of the Clippers last eight opponents, only two have managed to get off 90+ FG attempts. After allowing five straight opponents to make good on 41 or more field goals, the Clips have now held two of their last three opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. The Jazz haven't been able to get out and run as much as they would likely lately, and when they have, they've struggled shooting the ball. They've attempted fewer than 90 field goals in six of their last eight contests. In the other two games they shot a miserable 37-of-92 and 37-of-93 in outright losses as favorites against the Bucks and Spurs. Meanwhile, Utah has allowed its last three opponents to knock down 47, 40 and 43 field goals, giving up 125, 117 and 110 points in the process. Of Utah's last eight opponents, four of them have gotten off 91+ FG attempts. Keep in mind, the Clippers are just one game removed from hoisting up 98 FG attempts in a loss to the Cavs. I think we'll see the revenge-minded Clips afforded plenty of scoring opportunities in this one. Note that while Utah took the most recent meeting between these two teams, that was only thanks to shooting the lights out (47-of-89 - with Mitchell and Bogdanovic key contributors as I mentioned earlier). Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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03-18-22 | Chattanooga +8 v. Illinois | Top | 53-54 | Win | 100 | 53 h 1 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Chattanooga plus the points over Illinonis at 6:50 pm et on Friday. I'm confident Chattanooga will be afforded more than enough opportunities to ultimately make life difficult on Illinois and ultimately take this one down to the wire. The Mocs are one of the more underrated teams entering this tournament in my opinion. They caught fire down the stretch and come in playing extremely consistent basketball at both ends of the floor. The Mocs knocked down 25+ field goals in each of their last eight games. You would have to go all the way back to January 12th to find the last time they failed to reach at least 21 made field goals in a game - in fact that was the only time that happened all season. While I'm well aware that Chattanooga plays in a lower-tier conference than Illinois but let's face it, upsets happen in March. The Mocs are capable of hanging with the Illini here, noting that they've done a terrific job of limiting their opponents opportunities, especially when the chips were down, allowing just 54, 57, 48 and 52 field goal attempts over their last four games. No surprise they yielded 66 points or fewer in all four of those contests. They only allowed 60+ FG attempts in four of their last 17 games. The argument could be made that Illinois peaked in late February, when they delivered consecutive wins over Ohio State and Michigan. From there the Illini went 0-3 ATS over their last three games. In one of those contests they outlasted Penn State 60-55 in a game where they knocked down just 18 field goals. While Chattanooga has done a tremendous job of controlling its opponents' tempo, Illinois checks in having yielded 60+ FG attempts in seven of their last 16 games. Again, I realize the gap between the two conferences but I still feel the discrepancy is worth noting. The Illini allowed 27+ made field goals in five of their last seven games. I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as seems to be indicated by the pointspread. Take Chattanooga (10*). |
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03-17-22 | Vermont +5.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 80 h 18 m | Show |
My selection is on Vermont plus the points over Arkansas at 9:20 pm et on Thursday. There's obviously a lot of mental gymnastics that need to take place to figure out where teams from completely different conferences (and in turn level of opposition) stand as we head into the opening round matchups in the NCAA Tournament. Here, I do like Vermont's chances against what I consider to be an overrated Arkansas squad. The Catamounts absolutely laid waste to the opposition in the America East Conference down the stretch. Over their last eight games they've allowed more than 20 field goals in a game only three times (23 was the high-water mark over that stretch), limiting four of those opponents to 19 or less. I'm not sure their offense gets enough credit. They head into the NCAA Tournament having knocked down 28, 37, 26 and 37 field goals over their last four games, topping out at 63 attempts over that stretch. In other words, they're comfortable playing at a fast pace while also severely limiting their opponents scoring opportunities. Arkansas might just have peaked from mid-February into early-March, culminating with two near-perfect performances in victories over Kentucky and LSU. In three games since, we've seen the Razorbacks make good on just 23, 24 and 23 field goals. Meanwhile, they've been uneven defensively, allowing 30, 26, 23, 18 and 31 made field goals over their last five contests. They haven't really shown all that much interest in controlling their opponents' tempo, yielding 61+ FG attempts in three of their last five games. While Arkansas will undoubtedly be a popular sleeper pick, I expect it to get all it can handle against an experienced and talented Vermont squad on Thursday. Take Vermont (9*). |
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03-17-22 | Norfolk State +21.5 v. Baylor | 49-85 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Norfolk State plus the points over Baylor at 2 pm et on Thursday. Baylor has obviously played a lot of basketball since the start of last season, ultimately going all the way to take down last year's National Championship with a memorable NCAA Tournament run. To me, it seemed like the Bears wore down as the regular season went on this year. Note that they check into their first round NCAA Tourney matchup against Norfolk State having gone 8-13 ATS over their last 21 games. To find the last time Baylor knocked down 30+ field goals in a game you would have to go all the way back to January 31st against West Virginia. Even in that game, the Bears only won by four points, failing to sniff out a cover of the 13-point spread. While the Bears are known for their defense, they were by no means a shut down unit in that regard down the stretch. They enter this tourney having allowed 26+ made field goals in five of their last seven contests. Also notable is the fact that they yielded plenty of scoring opportunities, giving up 62, 62, 70, 60, 59 and 51 FG attempts over their last six games. Norfolk State obviously represents a step down in class for the Bears. But let's not completely write off this Spartans squad. They showed the ability to get out and run when they needed to over the course of the season and check in after hitting 29, 31, 21, 26 and 24 field goals over their last five games. Even in the 21 and 24 FG performances they still put up 72+ points on both occasions (note that they attempted exactly 50 FG's in both of those games). Norfolk State was certainly locked-in defensively down the stretch, yielding 23 or fewer made field goals in each of their last six games, despite five of those opponents getting off 59+ FG attempts. I'm not convinced there's enough runway for the Bears to win this one in a true rout. Take Norfolk State (8*). |
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03-16-22 | Iona +7 v. Florida | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 58 h 34 m | Show |
NIT First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Iona plus the points over Florida at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Iona is more accustomed to playing in the NCAA Tournament rather than the NIT in recent years but here it is, drawing Florida in the opening round of the NIT on Wednesday. I like the Gaels chances of not only staying inside the pointspread but potentially staging the upset here. Iona checks in having knocked down 31, 27, 23, 29, 29 and 25 field goals over its last six games, falling just a point short against Rider an upset loss as an 11.5-point favorite in the MAAC Tournament. The Gaels may have overlooked Rider in that contest as they simply didn't show up defensively, allowing the Broncs to shoot 29-of-57 from the field. Prior to that they had held six of their last eight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals, going 6-2 SU over that stretch. We saw Florida get drawn into some up-tempo affairs down the stretch, getting off 60+ field goal attempts in three of its last four games. That's obviously the pace Iona prefers and given where this total sits, that's the type of affair we can anticipate here. Concerning is the fact that the Gators allowed their last five opponents to knock down 29, 27, 30, 28 and 24 field goals, despite the fact that only one of those opponents got off more than 58 FG attempts. Take Iona (10*). |
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03-15-22 | Nets -9.5 v. Magic | Top | 150-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Nets are coming off a SU win but ATS loss against the Knicks on Sunday while the Magic have quietly reeled off four consecutive ATS wins entering Tuesday's matchup in Orlando. I like the way this one sets up for the Nets, however. Note that Brooklyn has been ultra-efficient offensively of late, knocking down 45, 46, 51 and 44 field goals over its last four games despite getting off 90+ field goal attempts only once over that stretch. Orlando has been hanging in there largely due to its opposition struggling in terms of FG%, noting that it has actually yielded 90+ field goal attempts in seven straight and nine of its last 10 games overall. If the pace gets up to that level tonight, there's a good chance we see the Nets 'go off' offensively given the way they've been shooting. On the flip side, Brooklyn limited New York to just 83 FG attempts in Sunday's narrow victory and has held three of its last five opponents to 83 FG attempts or fewer. The Nets last two opponents have made good on just 30 and 39 field goals. Note that the Magic, despite getting off a reasonable 88 FG attempts per game here at home, have only managed to knock down an average of 38 field goals per contest. There is valid concern here that the Nets elect to 'manage' this game given they have a big home date with the Mavericks on deck tomorrow. However, this will be just their second game in the last five nights, and tomorrow's contest will begin a very manageable three-game in six-night homestand, so those concerns can be tempered somewhat. Considering the Magic took the last meeting between these two teams by a 100-93 score in Brooklyn back in mid-December, we'll back a revenge-minded Nets squad laying what I consider to be a reasonable number on Tuesday night. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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03-14-22 | Raptors -4 v. Lakers | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. The Raptors have quietly turned things around following a disappointing four-game losing streak, reeling off three straight wins despite running into two hot shooting opponents in Phoenix and Denver over their last two contests. The Raps have done an excellent job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities lately, yielding just 85, 84, 88 and 78 field goal attempts over their last four games. The Suns and Nuggets managed to knock down 44 and 43 of those attempts over the last two games but I certainly don't anticipate the Lakers reaching those levels here. Los Angeles made good on only 36-of-81 FG attempts in a 140-111 loss in Phoenix last night. While the Lakers have hit 41+ field goals in five of their last six games, the majority of those contests were played at a very fast pace. Los Angeles has gotten off 91+ FG attempts in three of its last four games - a number I don't see it approaching here. The Raptors, meanwhile, have been forcing the issue offensively, getting off 93+ FG attempts in four of their last five games and should be able to find continued success against a Lakers squad that has had no luck or interest in slowing opponents down, yielding 93, 92, 84, 102, 85 and 102 FG attempts over their last six games (one of those 102's came by way of overtime in Houston). The Raptors have knocked down 41, 42 and 48 field goals over their last three games, putting up 119, 117 and 127 points along the way. Take Toronto (8*). |
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03-14-22 | Blazers +14 v. Hawks | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the Hawks wild, high-scoring win over the Pacers last night. I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade Atlanta on Monday as it stays home to host the lowly Blazers. Portland snapped its six-game losing streak with a 127-118 win over the Wizards on Saturday. There's reason to be somewhat positive about the Blazers, even with all of their injuries and after their pre-trade deadline fire sale. I say that because they've held 10 of their last 11 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and better still, four of their last five opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts. Two of their last three opponents have knocked down fewer than 40 field goals. Meanwhile, the Hawks have hit 40+ field goals in four straight games. That's with getting off 90+ FG attempts in two of those three contests, however. More concerning is the fact that Atlanta has yielded 52, 46, 43, 47, 40 and 46 made field goals over its last six games. It's not as if the pace has necessarily dictated those high field goal totals either as four of those six opponents attempted fewer than 90 field goals. You would have to go all the way back to January 28th to find the last time an opponent didn't score 100+ points against the Hawks. Also of note is the fact that the Hawks could very well elect to 'manage' this game as they're in the midst of a stretch that will see them play 11 games in 19 nights and as I mentioned on the second of back-to-backs after a fairly taxing contest last night. Take Portland (10*). |
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03-12-22 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Southeastern Louisiana | 73-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas A&M-Corpus Christi minus the points over Southeastern Louisiana at 9:30 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams enter the Southland Conference Championship Game playing their best basketball of the season. I simply feel Corpus Christi has been the better all-around team all season and will prove it in this winner-take-all showdown on Saturday night. Note that the Islanders come into this game having allowed 23 or fewer made field goals in seven of their last eight games. They like to slow the pace, which doesn't suit Southeastern Louisiana all that well. Note that the Lions have made good on 26+ field goals in five straight games but they got off 60+ attempts in three of those five contests. Slow it down and I don't anticipate SE Louisiana enjoying nearly as much success here. On the flip side, the Lions have been lit up for 29+ made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Yes, they play at a faster pace so that is to be expected, but perhaps not to the level we've seen. Note that four of the Lions last five opponents got into the 30's in terms of made field goals. They're here thanks to New Orleans having an off night shooting the basketball on Friday, making good on just 25-of-62 attempts. Provided the Islanders can shoot for average on Saturday, as I expect them to do (they shoot 44.4% from the field this season), I'm confident they'll prevail. Take Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (8*). |
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03-12-22 | Bucks v. Warriors +1.5 | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams come in playing well but it's the Bucks that have been doing it for a longer period, securing six straight wins heading into this clash. The Warriors, meanwhile, righted the ship with consecutive wins over the Clippers and Nuggets this week. I like Golden State to keep it going on Saturday. The Warriors are absolutely locked-in defensively right now. Over their last two games they held L.A. and Denver to a combined 68-for-177 (38.4%) shooting. Meanwhile, despite missing a number of key contributors on any given night, their offense has thrived, knocking down 40+ field goals and scoring 112+ points in six straight games. The Bucks defense is vulnerable right now, having allowed 44, 47, 50, 42 and 43 made field goals over their last five games. In fact, each of their last four opponents have shot 50% or better from the field. While the Milwaukee offense continues to hum along, shooting 50% or better in three straight contests heading into this showdown, I'm anticipating some regression against a revenge-minded Warriors squad here (Milwaukee took the first meeting by 19 points at home in January). Take Golden State (8*). |
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03-12-22 | San Diego State -2 v. Boise State | Top | 52-53 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over Boise State at 6 pm et on Saturday. The Aztecs are hoping it will be 'third time's a charm' against Boise State after dropping both regular season meetings by a combined six points. I like their chances of exacting revenge at the best possible time in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on Saturday. San Diego State is absolutely locked-in defensively right now, having allowed 23 or fewer made field goals in nine straight games heading into this one. While saying that the Aztecs have made good on 20+ field goals in 12 straight games doesn't sound like much, it is a major positive when you consider the low pace they play at (they attempted fewer than 50 field goals in half of those contests). Boise State isn't playing at the same level defensively as San Diego State, having yielded 26, 26, 28, 26 and 23 made field goals over its last five games. After shooting 50% or better from the field in four straight games, the Broncos cooled off to knock down just 23-of-49 shots in their semi-final victory over Wyoming. Note that in the two regular season matchups between the Aztecs and Broncos it was San Diego State that held a 38-31 edge in terms of field goals made. Boise State, however, got to the free throw line 21 more times across the two games, which ultimately proved to be the difference on both occasions. It's difficult to project that happening again here, noting that Boise State averages just two more FT attempts per game than San Diego State this season. Take San Diego State (10*). |
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03-11-22 | Wizards +4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 109-122 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. The Wizards opened their current road trip with a six-point loss against the Clippers two nights ago. They're still a solid 5-4 ATS over their last nine games with their four ATS losses over that stretch coming by a combined seven points. We've seen Washington make a concerted effort, at least seemingly, to slow down opposing offenses recently, limiting nine of its last 12 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Wizards last two opponents have quite simply shot the lights out, something I don't anticipate the Lakers doing tonight. Offensively, the Wiz have been 'filling it up', knocking down 41, 46, 45 and 41 field goals over their last four games, despite getting off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all four of those contests. In fact, they've knocked down 40+ field goals in nine of their last 11 games. Here, the Wiz should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against a non-existent Lakers defense. Los Angeles has shown no ability (or interest) to slow down opposing offenses, yielding 90+ field goal attempts in three of its last four games (it allows an average of 91 FG attempts per game at home this season). Each of the Lakers last seven opponents have made good on at least 41 field goal attempts, with five of them knocking down 46+. While the Lakers have been doing a solid job of keeping pace, hitting 40+ field goals in four straight games, I'm not convinced the pace will be there for them to reach that number tonight. Note that the Wizards allow an average of 40-of-88 shooting on the road this season. Take Washington (10*). |
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03-11-22 | Richmond v. VCU -2.5 | Top | 75-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on VCU minus the points over Richmond at 8:30 pm et on Friday. VCU will be trying to accomplish the difficult task of defeating the same team three times in one season as it takes on Richmond in A-10 quarter-final action on Friday. I like the Rams chances. Richmond comes off a narrow 64-59 win over Rhode Island yesterday. The Spiders have picked a bad time to go into a bit of a shooting slump. They've knocked down 23, 20, 25 and 18 field goals over their last four contests, going 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS over that stretch. They had a tough enough time just getting shots off last night, attempting just 47 field goals in their victory over RI. Here, things won't get any easier against a VCU squad that has absolutely locked down the opposition defensively this season and particularly down the stretch. The Rams enter this contest having yielded 23 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Over their final three regular season games they gave up only 21, 18 and 21 made field goals. Meanwhile, the VCU offense has been humming along, making good on 24+ field goals in nine straight games including 26+ in seven of those contests. That's not all that impressive on the face of it but when you consider that most of those games were played at a relatively slow pace (with FG attempts in the 50-55 range for the most part) you get a better sense of how efficient the Rams offense has been. Here, I'm expecting a slightly faster pace, noting that the Rams got off 55 and 61 FG attempts in two regular season meetings with the Spiders, knocking down 28 of of those attempts in both games. Richmond shot just 42-of-117 from the field in those two regular season matchups. Richmond only managed to stay close in their home meeting and that was thanks to a wide 21-7 disparity in terms of free throw attempts, something that's unlikely to happen here. Take VCU (10*). |
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03-11-22 | Quinnipiac v. St. Peter's -6.5 | Top | 52-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Peter's minus the points over Quinnipiac at 8:30 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for St. Peter's as it takes on Quinnipiac in MAAC Tournament semi-final action on Friday. The Peacocks are as locked-in defensively as any team in the conference and perhaps the entire country right now (relatively speaking, of course). Going back to a February 4th matchup against the same Quinnipiac squad they'll face tonight, they've allowed 22 or fewer made field goals in nine of their last 11 games. Over their last four contests they've yielded just 13, 17, 15 and 19 made field goals. All the while they've been absolutely frustrating opposing offenses by slowing the pace. While Quinnipiac has knocked down 26+ field goals in three of its last four games, that's had a lot to do with playing at a reasonably fast pace, something we're not likely to see in this particular matchup. Note that the Bobcats shot a miserable 42-of-121 in two regular season matchups between these two teams - both went St. Peter's way by at least nine points. On the flip side, Quinnipiac has done little to slow opposing offenses lately, allowing 28, 27, 28, 29, 23 and 26 made field goals over its last six games. St. Peter's - despite playing at a snail's pace - has made good on 20+ field goals in eight straight games and 25+ in six of those eight contests. While the Peacocks are by no means a perimeter-based team offensively, they did knock down 17 three-pointers in two regular season meetings with the Bobcats. That's not all that surprising considering Quinnipiac yields nine made threes per game this season. Take St. Peter's (10*). |
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03-11-22 | Wolves -7.5 v. Magic | 110-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'm not sure the T'Wolves are getting nearly the respect they deserve right now. They've reeled off six straight wins, incredibly scoring 124+ points in all six of those games. They've made good on 45+ field goals in five of those six contests, despite the majority of them being played at a reasonably slow pace. Meanwhile, Minnesota's defense continues to shine as well, holding four straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts with three of those four opponents knocking down 37 or less and it draws another favorable matchup here. Speaking of favorable matchups - the Magic have benefited from facing the Suns without Chris Paul and Devin Booker and the Pelicans without Brandon Ingram over their last two games. The T'Wolves aren't at full strength but they're getting healthier and again, it hasn't really mattered who they've trotted out on the floor lately, they've found success. Lost in Orlando's recent 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS surge is the fact that it continues to do little to slow opposing offenses down, yielding 90+ FG attempts in five straight and seven of its last eight games. It has been fortunate that the opposition simply hasn't taken advantage of its opportunities on most nights. I expect a different story to unfold here as a revenge-minded T'Wolves squad hangs another crooked number on the board in a convincing win. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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03-11-22 | Creighton v. Providence -3 | 85-58 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Providence minus the points over Creighton at 6:30 pm et on Friday. Providence narrowly escaped with a four-point win over Butler last night but I expect it to 'get right' and move on with a more convincing win over Creighton on Friday. The Friars are locked-in defensively right now, allowing just 18, 23 and 22 made field goals over their last three games. While Creighton obviously poses a challenge, I expect Providence to be up for it, noting that it held the Blue Jays to just 18 made field goals including only five from beyond the arc in a 72-51 win in the lone regular season matchup between the two teams. Offensively, we saw the Friars get bogged down against a Butler team that can be very frustrating to play against last night, knocking down only 20 field goals on 54 attempts but it was still enough to get into the 60's and secure the win. Here, I think the Friars will prefer the pace the Blue Jays play at, noting that Creighton has allowed opponents to get off 64+ field goal attempts in six of its last nine games. The Blue Jays have yielded 35, 33, 28, 27, 27 and 23 made field goals over their last six games. Creighton's offense has been rather uneven lately, hitting just 18, 27, 21 and 28 field goals over its last four contests. I'm just not sure it will get enough opportunities to keep within arm's reach here, noting that Providence allows just 24 made field goals and only six from beyond the arc per game away from home this season. Take Providence (8*). |
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03-10-22 | South Florida +9.5 v. UCF | Top | 58-60 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
AAC Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over UCF at 7 pm et on Thursday. We missed badly with South Florida in its most recent game as it dropped an ugly 75-47 decision at Temple to close out the regular season last Sunday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Bulls here, however, as I do feel they're well-positioned to give Central Florida all it can handle on Thursday. Lost in that blowout defeat against Temple was the fact that the Bulls did once again hold up alright defensively (given the circumstances - with their offense unable to hit a shot), allowing just 22 made field goals on 56 attempts. USF has now yielded only 20, 22, 16, 19, 24 and 22 made field goals over its last six games. When a team plays like that, it makes it tough on the opponent to cover a lofty pointspread, as we're dealing with here. Keep in mind, prior to Sunday's game, the Bulls had shown some signs of life offensively, knocking down 20+ field goals in nine straight games and hitting 25, 23 and 25 in their last there - all ATS victories. I do think the Bulls can frustrate an average UCF offense here. The Knights are used to getting up into the 60's in terms of field goal attempts. The last two times they were held to fewer than 60 attempts they eked out a three-point win at home against East Carolina (as a nine-point favorite) and lost by one point at Tulsa (as a one-point favorite). The Knights have regularly been allowing opponents to get loose offensively, allowing 23 or more made field goals in six of their last eight games (no fewer than 22 over that period) after a stretch in late January-early February that saw them hold consecutive opponents to 22, 21 and 18. USF took the first meeting in this series this season in blowout fashion at home before a revenge-minded Knights squad returned the favor on their home floor. In the Bulls 19-point road loss to UCF on February 3rd, they knocked down only 18 field goals including only 2-of-13 attempts from three-point range. Meanwhile, UCF poured in 14 threes. The fact that the margin was 'only' 19 points was actually encouraging heading into this one as far as I'm concerned, as the Bulls really can't play any worse than they did on that occasion. Take South Florida (10*). |
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03-09-22 | Georgetown v. Seton Hall -10 | Top | 53-57 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
Big East Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Seton Hall minus the points over Georgetown at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. It's been an absolutely disastrous season for Patrick Ewing's Georgetown Hoyas. They do, however, enter the Big East Tournament having gone 4-2 ATS over their last six games. That's little consolation, of course, and only serves to give us the opportunity to back Seton Hall at a discount here, noting that the Pirates closed as 13.5-point favorites against the Hoyas just last week. The Pirates only won that game by five points as they turned in a poor 4-of-20 shooting effort from beyond the arc. I certainly anticipate improvement in that regard here, noting that the Pirates average seven made threes per game away from home this season while Georgetown gives up an average of nine. While the Hoyas did enjoy some late season pointspread success, the fact is they check in having given up 30, 30, 28, 30, 24, 23, 30, 28 and 35 made field goals over their last nine games. In other words, they were consistently awful at the defensive end of the floor. That's to go along with an offense that last knocked down more than 27 field goals in a game way back on December 18th - before the start of Big East play. On the flip side, Seton Hall had to learn to run their offense without PG Bryce Aiken down the stretch and did so nicely, securing five consecutive wins (4-1 ATS) leading up to this tournament. The Pirates made good on 25, 29, 28 and 27 field goals in their last four regular season games and while that's steady performance, I look for them to show some improvement in this mouth-watering matchup. It's defensively where Seton Hall has really shone. Opponents have had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone hitting them, with the Pirates yielding just 59, 54, 50, 57 and 54 field goal attempts during their five-game winning streak. The high-water mark was 59 and in that contest Seton Hall allowed DePaul to make only 19 of those attempts. Take Seton Hall (10*). |
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03-09-22 | Magic v. Pelicans -8.5 | Top | 108-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Pelicans seemingly 'punted' last night's game in Memphis, sitting Brandon Ingram in what turned out to be a blowout loss (we won with the 'over'). Here, I expect a much better performance from New Orleans as it returns home to host Orlando, which is also in a back-to-back spot off a three-point home loss against the Suns last night. Note that the Magic's offense has gone back in the tank, knocking down just 36, 37 and 35 field goals over its last three games despite getting off 95, 86 and 92 field goal attempts in those three contests. Meanwhile, Orlando has shown no ability to control its opponents tempo, yielding 90+ field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. Even without Ingram last night in Memphis, New Orleans stayed reasonably hot offensively, knocking down 41-of-88 FG attempts. Over their last five games, the Pelicans have made good on 47, 52, 50, 48 and 41 field goals. With the Magic projected to allow them to get off 90+ attempts tonight, there's plenty of runway for the improved Pelicans offense to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard. On the flip side, New Orleans had been doing a nice job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities up until last night, yielding fewer than 90 FG attempts in six straight games. The Magic have had a tough enough time reaching 100 points when being afforded 90+ attempts. If they can't get close to that many opportunities on Wednesday, they should be in for a long night, noting also that while New Orleans allows 109.5 points per game overall this season, that average drops to 104.0 ppg when coming off two or more consecutive losses, as is the case here. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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03-09-22 | Hartford v. Maryland-Baltimore County -3.5 | Top | 60-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
America East Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Maryland-Baltimore County minus the points over Hartford at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Beating a team three times in one season is no simply task but I expect Maryland-Baltimore County to accomplish that feat and book its spot in the America East Championship Game with a convincing victory over Hartford on Wednesday. Both regular season meetings were relatively close but the Retrievers ultimately prevailed by four and seven-point margins. Hartford actually got off 61 and 65 field goal attempts in those two contests while UMBC attempted just 52 and 50 field goals yet the Hawks still fell short on both occasions. Given Hartford's current form, having knocked down just 21, 27 and 16 field goals in its last three games, I'm not convinced it will be able to stay within arm's reach this time around. Note that UMBC will give up plenty of opportunities, yielding 60+ FG attempts in six straight games entering this matchup. But the Hawks aren't really adept at pushing the pace, shooting just 25-of-55 on the road this season, and have attempted fewer than 50 field goals in three of their last six games. I don't think this is going to be a comfortable environment for Hartford on Wednesday. UMBC checks in having made good on 33, 23, 25, 29, 28 and 29 field goals over its last six contests, scoring 90+ points in four of those games. In other words, the Retrievers have been very consistent in what they do on offense. While they do allow opponents to get out and run, they've only given up an average of 27 made field goals per game (on an average of 61 attempts per contest) here at home this season. As an added bonus, the Retrievers check in as one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country, knocking down just shy of 80% of their attempts. I don't need to tell you how much that matters at this time of year especially. Take Maryland-Baltimore County (10*). |
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03-08-22 | Clippers v. Warriors -6.5 | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Warriors have somewhat quietly dropped five straight and nine of their last 11 games overall, including a 131-124 loss in Denver last night. Of course that loss on Monday was to be expected as they rested Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins. Here, I look for a big response in the Warriors first game back home following a four-game road trip. They dropped their last game on this floor, blowing a big lead against the Mavericks, who are playing some of the best basketball of any team in the NBA right now. The Clippers are not in that same vein, coming off a 116-93 drubbing at home against the Knicks on Sunday. They've allowed their last two opponents - two struggling teams at that in the Lakers and Knicks - to knock down 41 and 42 field goals despite getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts. They'll without question have their hands full against a revenge-minded Warriors squad that even without a number of key contributors still made good on 45-of-88 FG attempts and poured in 124 points in Denver last night. While Golden State has been giving up plenty of points during its current skid, there are positives to take away as it has held all six opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts since the All-Star break. The opposition isn't going to continue to knock down its shots at such a clip as we've seen, noting that Golden State has allowed an average of 37-for-87 (42.2%) shooting at home this season. Take Golden State (9*). |
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03-08-22 | Marshall -3.5 v. Florida International | 74-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Marshall minus the points over Florida International at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. Florida International picked the wrong time to go into a shooting slump, entering the C-USA Tournament on the heels of four consecutive losses, going 1-3 ATS over that stretch. Because of their late season woes, the Panthers draw a very capable, revenge-minded Marshall squad in their tournament opener on Tuesday. Marshall also enters the tourney on a losing skid, having dropped three in a row. I like the Thundering Herd's offense in this particular matchup, noting that FIU has allowed 31, 25 and 27 made field goals over its last three games, despite allowing 57 or fewer field goal attempts in each of those contests. Marshall will undoubtedly push the pace here (it averages 64 field goal attempts per game away from home this season) and if it is successful in doing so, I'm confident it can hang a crooked number on the scoreboard against a vulnerable Panthers defense. FIU has made good on just 23, 22, 18 and 25 field goals over its last four contests. It shot well in both meetings against Marshall during the regular season, a big reason it was able to win both games. Keep in mind, those two contests could have gone either way with the Panthers prevailing by just four and one-point margins. There was really nothing special about either performance from FIU. Marshall is a favored for a reason here as it looks to finally put one over on FIU in the most important matchup of its season. Take Marshall (8*). |
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03-08-22 | Nets -4.5 v. Hornets | Top | 132-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I see this as a smash spot for the Nets on the heels of four straight losses including Sunday's 126-120 loss in a nationally-televised matinee affair in Boston. Kevin Durant is still saying the right things (he of course recently returned from injury) and I don't think the Nets are hitting the panic button by any means, even as they continue to fall in the Eastern Conference standings. With a tough matchup with the 76ers on deck in Philadelphia, getting a win here is of critical importance. Note that the Nets have knocked down 42 and 45 field goals in their last two road games, despite getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in each of those contests. Also on a positive note, the Nets have held their last two opponents to just 77 and 83 FG attempts. The Heat and Celtics simply shot the lights out in those two contests. I'm not anticipating the same type of offensive performance from Charlotte here. The Hornets are off consecutive wins but they've been wildly inconsistent in recent weeks, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. Note that they've allowed seven of their last nine opponents to get off 90+ FG attempts and if that happens tonight, as it likely will, the Nets offense should be able to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard. While laying almost a handful of points on the road is certainly a concern, the Nets have managed to go a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven victories with five of those seven wins coming away from home (not surprisingly as Kyrie Irving is only available to the team for road games not played in New York). Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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03-08-22 | Boston College -1.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 66-46 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
ACC Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston College minus the points over Pittsburgh at 2 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this ACC Tournament opener sets up for Boston College. The Eagles do limp into the tourney off three consecutive SU and ATS losses but none of those defeats were for lack of trying. The Eagles actually missed the cover by just a bucket last time out at Georgia Tech, putting forth a valiant effort in an 82-78 loss as a three-point underdog. I like the consistency Boston College has shown offensively down the stretch, knocking down 26 or more field goals in four of its last five games, despite getting off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in all five of those contests. While the Eagles defense did lag in their final two games allowing 31 and 30 made field goals, they did continue to do a good job of controlling tempo, yielding no more than 56 field goal attempts in any of their last five games (in that game where they gave up 56, Florida State knocked down only 19 of them). Pitt has dropped each of its last four games both SU and ATS. It reached a high-water mark of only 25 made field goals over that stretch. Away from its home floor this season, the Panthers averaged a woeful 20 made field goals per game, having a tough enough time just getting shots off, attempting just 50 field goals per contest in 'away' games. While Boston College at least showed some signs of life defensively in the final few weeks of the season, Pitt got torched for 26, 32, 32 and 27 made field goals over its final four games. The 27 allowed against Notre Dame in its regular season finale came on just 48 attempts. In fact, the Panthers last three opponents all shot better than 55% from the field. While Pitt did manage to split the regular season series against Boston College that was only thanks to getting to the free throw line 28 times in its home matchup (a game the Panthers won by just two points, failing to cover as three-point favorites). BC took the return match in Chestnut Hill by 13 points as a 3.5-point favorite on January 30th. Take Boston College (10*). |
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03-07-22 | Northern Kentucky -1.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 57-43 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Horizon League Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Kentucky minus the points over Purdue-Fort Wayne at 9:30 pm et on Monday. |
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03-07-22 | Lakers v. Spurs -4.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The Spurs enter Monday's game riding a four-game losing streak. They certainly haven't quit on the season though. That's evident by the fact that they've poured in 100+ points in nine straight games. The Spurs continue to apply a ton of pressure on opposing defenses, getting off 90+ field goal attempts in 10 consecutive contests. While they've continued to give up plenty of points as well, we have seen some signs of a potential turnaround, noting that they've held their last four opponents to 83, 89, 84 and 91 FG attempts. The Lakers are in a fairly obvious letdown spot here after a big upset win over the Warriors at home on Saturday. Consistency has certainly not been a part of the Lakers vocabulary this season and I expect that to hold true here. Note that Los Angeles has yielded 92+ FG attempts in three of its last four games, giving up 123, 109, 132 and 116 points over that stretch. Offensively, we've seen the Lakers manage to get off fewer than 90 FG attempts in four straight games, fortunate to knock down 40+ in each of their last two contests. There's not a lot of margin for error when it comes to the Lakers, especially with Anthony Davis remaining sidelined. Here, we'll note that the Lakers are just 13-28 ATS when coming off a home win over the last two seasons and 9-18 ATS off a victory of any kind this season. The Spurs, meanwhile, are 38-24 ATS when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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03-06-22 | Tulane +9.5 v. SMU | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulane plus the points over SMU at 3 pm et on Sunday. SMU won by nine points in the first meeting between these two teams this season. Tulane certainly had its opportunities in that game as it got off a whopping 65 field goal attempts (compared to SMU's 52) but simply couldn't knock anything down, making good on just 24 of those 65 attempts, including only 7-of-19 from beyond the arc in the home defeat. Note that SMU shot the lights out from three-point range in that game, knocking down 15 threes and also made good on five more free throw attempts than Tulane, yet still only won by nine. You could argue that the Green Wave enter this rematch in better form offensively. Since February 5th, they've poured in 30, 20, 29, 29, 23, 18 and 28 made field goals. Even in the game where they only hit 18 they still only lost by five points at Temple. SMU continues to struggle to contain opposing offenses, allowing 62 or more field goal attempts in five of its last six games. Not only that but the Mustangs offense has sagged, making good on just 39-of-107 FG attempts over their last two games. While SMU will be taking a step down in class here, I expect Tulane to keep things interesting. Take Tulane (8*). |
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03-06-22 | South Florida +8.5 v. Temple | Top | 47-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
American Athletic Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over Temple at 2 pm et on Sunday. South Florida enters Sunday's game against Temple on the heels of three consecutive ATS wins. While the Bulls have endured a tough season on the whole, they have undoubtedly been playing some of their best basketball down the stretch. Note that they've done a tremendous job defensively, limiting their last five opponents to 20, 22, 16, 19 and 24 made field goals. Meanwhile, Temple has sagged in that department lately, allowing at least 23 made field goals in five of its last six contests. The Owls offense had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down in their most recent game, falling by an 84-46 score at Houston. South Florida isn't Houston, but the fact is the Owls have been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in four of their last five games. Keep in mind, the first time these two teams met this season South Florida prevailed by a 52-49 score, limiting Temple to just 18-of-49 from the field. There's actually plenty of room for improvement from the USF offense here after it knocked down only 20-of-55 FG attempts in that victory. The Bulls enter this game on a streak of nine straight games hitting at least 20 field goals. That's no big accomplishment for most teams, but it's certainly more than can be said for Temple which has been held to 18 or less field goals twice in its last seven contests. Here, we'll note that Temple checks in 0-6 ATS when coming off a road loss in which it scored 60 points or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 10.0 points in that situation. Take South Florida (10*). |
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03-02-22 | Duquesne v. George Washington -7.5 | 93-98 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on George Washington minus the points over Duquesne at 7 pm et on Wednesday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team struggling as badly as Duquense right now. The Dukes haven't won a game since January 8th and check into Wednesday's clash with George Washington having made a grand total of 79 field goals over their last four games, scoring 55 points or less in all four of those contests. On the flip side, they're not really offering up any defensive resistance, having allowed 29, 31, 29 and 27 made field goals over that stretch, despite none of those games being played at all that quick of a pace (those four opponents topped out at 59 field goal attempts). George Washington got bogged down by as superior George Mason squad on the road last time out but has been playing well in the longer-term picture, having gone 9-2 ATS over its last 11 games. Credit the Colonials for limiting George Mason to just 21 made field goals in that 69-62 loss on Saturday. GWU has held three straight opponents to 56 field goal attempts or fewer. If it can do that here it should be able to win in a walk, noting that it yielded a whopping 76 FG attempts in its last matchup with Duquesne on February 16th but still gave up only 52 points in a 21-point win. Take George Washington (9*). |
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03-01-22 | Bruins v. Ducks +1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Anaheim +1.5 goals over Boston at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We were on the wrong side of the Bruins stunning 7-0 win in Los Angeles last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same puck-line play, this time in support of the Ducks on Tuesday. Boston is expected to turn to Linus Ullmark in goal tonight. That's worth noting as while last night's starter Jeremy Swayman has recorded an incredible .964 save percentage over his last four games, Ullmark has posted an .896 save percentage over his last four starts. In fact, you would have to go back 10 starts to find the last time the Bruins won a game by multiple goals with Ullmark in goal (5-1 win on January 12th at home against Montreal). Note that the Bruins are in a back-to-back spot here, a situation they've gone just 4-10 in, outscored by an average margin of 1.5 goals, over the last three seasons. They're also just 1-5 when playing on the road off five or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 1.5 goals on average in that situation as well. Finally, I'll point out that Boston has averaged just 2.1 goals per game and has been outscored by 0.6 goals on average when playing on the road seeking revenge for a loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last three seasons (15-game sample size), as is the case here after Anaheim skated to a 5-3 win in Boston back in January. The Ducks check in off consecutive home losses but have played .500 hockey here this season, outscoring opponents by 0.3 goals on average. Take Anaheim +1.5 goals (10*). |
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03-01-22 | Clippers v. Rockets +7 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Rockets took the Clippers down to the wire two nights ago, ultimately losing that game by a single point. While Houston has now lost nine consecutive games, it continues to do a nice job of controlling the tempo of the opposition, limiting four of its last five opponents to sub-90 field goal attempts. The problem is, the opposition has been making the most of those attempts, with 12 of its last 13 opponents shooting better than 50% from the field. The good news is, the Rockets limited the Clippers to 44% shooting on Sunday, giving them something to build off of here. Note that the Clips are at the opposite end of the spectrum, having allowed four straight opponents to get off 90+ field goal attempts. I certainly expect to see Houston improve on its 38% shooting effort on Sunday. Los Angeles enters this game off of three consecutive wins but is just 5-14 ATS as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, as is the case here, and has actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 points in that spot. All told, the Clips are 14-18 on the road this season, where they've been outscored by 2.3 points per game. Take Houston (10*). |
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03-01-22 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Jets | 4-8 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Since dropping a 5-3 decision against Buffalo on Super Bowl Sunday, the Canadiens have reeled off five consecutive wins, not coincidentally turning things around since Martin St. Louis replaced Dominique Ducharme as head coach. I like the way this spot sets up for the Habs as well and we'll grab the insurance goal as the price warrants such a play. Note that Winnipeg is coming off a come-from-behind 5-3 win in Arizona on Sunday. That puts it in a poor situation here noting that it has gone 0-6 when coming off a road win by two goals or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 2.2 goals in that spot. When playing at home off a win by 2+ goals over a division opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here, the Jets have gone just 5-13, outscored by 1.0 goal on average. They're also just 9-17 when playing at home after scoring 3+ goals in consecutive games over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. Finally, we'll note that the Jets have averaged a woeful 1.6 goals and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.4 goals when coming off a road victory in which they scored 4+ goals this season (five-game sample size). Take Montreal +1.5 goals (6*). |
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02-28-22 | UCLA -8 v. Washington | 77-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Washington at 11 pm et on Monday. UCLA bounced back from a loss at Oregon to blast Oregon State by 39 points on Saturday. I look for the Bruins to build off of that incredible performance on Monday night in Washington. While UCLA isn't expected to have Johnny Juzang back for this game, that was certainly no obstacle on Saturday and I don't believe it will be tonight either. Washington is sagging defensively right now, having allowed 36, 30, 30, 27 and 24 made field goals, not to mention 60+ field goal attempts in nine straight games heading into Monday's contest. In stark contrast, UCLA has held each of its last seven opponents to 55 or fewer field goal attempts, allowing a grand total of only 96 made field goals over its last five games combined. Offensively, the Bruins are 'filling it up', knocking down 28 or more field goals in six of their last nine contests. This same matchup was no contest back on February 19th as the Bruins rolled to a 76-50 victory. Perhaps the Huskies can close the margin somewhat in this one, but not by enough to cover the very reasonable pointspread in my opinion. Take UCLA (6*). |
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02-28-22 | Bruins v. Kings +1.5 | 7-0 | Loss | -197 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 goals over Boston at 10:35 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams enter this game red hot and I'm certainly anticipated a tightly-contested affair on Monday night. With that being said, we'll grab the insurance goal with the Kings, even though we have to pay a significant tariff to do so. Here, we'll note that Boston checks in just 16-17 after giving up one goal or less in its previous game over the last two seasons with an even 3.0-3.0 scoring average in that particular spot. When coming off four or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, the B's have allowed 3.2 goals per game, outscored by an average margin of 0.2 goals in that situation. The Kings, meanwhile, have given up just 1.7 goals per game when coming off five or more consecutive victories over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. They're just 14-13 on home ice this season but have outscored the opposition by 0.3 goals on average. Take Los Angeles +1.5 goals (5*). |
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02-28-22 | New Mexico v. Fresno State -10 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Fresno State minus the points over New Mexico at 10 pm et on Monday. Fresno State finally snapped a four-game losing streak with a 65-40 blowout victory over Air Force last time out. I look for the Bulldogs to build on that positive result with another lopsided victory on Monday against New Mexico. The Lobos snapped a three-game losing streak of their own with a narrow victory over Air Force last Thursday. That came at home. The Lobos are just 2-10 on the road this season and have had little success in slowing opposing offenses, allowing 28 made field goals per game on better than 48% shooting. That's not to mention the fact that they're sending opponents to the free throw line a whopping 23 times per contest on the road this season. On the flip side, Fresno State allows just 19-of-50 shooting here at home this season, including only six made three-pointers per game and 13 free throw attempts per contest. The Bulldogs have held each of their last four opponents to 52 or fewer field goal attempts so I don't envision New Mexico enjoying a ton of quality scoring opportunities in tonight's game. Fresno State took the first meeting between these two teams by five points back in late January. The Lobos had nine more field goal attempts than the Bulldogs in that game but I expect that script to flip in this one. Take Fresno State (10*). |
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02-28-22 | Massachusetts v. Fordham -2 | Top | 73-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Game of the Month. My selection is on Fordham minus the points over UMass at 7 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up for Fordham as it looks to bounce back from an ugly performance at Davidson on Saturday. The Rams knocked down only 12-of-49 field goals in that contest, unable to build off consecutive home victories in their previous two games. I do expect a much stronger effort here as they host a reeling UMass squad on Monday. The Minutemen have dropped back-to-back games by 21 and 15-point margins. Opponents have absolutely been 'filling it up' against the UMass defense, pouring in 28+ made field goals in five of its last six games. On the flip side, Fordham has given up fewer than 20 made field goals in three of its last five games. Even in Saturday's blowout loss at Davidson, the Rams still gave up just 22 made field goals. They've held four of their last five opponents to sub-38% shooting from the field. That's nothing new. Fordham allows an average of just 23 made field goals, including only six from beyond the arc, and sends opponents to the free throw line only 16 times per contest here at home this season. That's all key as any success the Minutemen has had this season has generally been on the strength of its three-point (10 made per game) and free-throw shooting (20 trips to the line per contest). Take Fordham (10*). |
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02-26-22 | Bruins v. Sharks +1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Boston at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Sharks on the puck-line in their most recent game as they finally snapped their losing streak with a 4-3 shootout win over the Islanders. In fact, we've won with San Jose +1.5 goals in each of the last two games and have been rewarded with consecutive winners. We'll go back to the well here. Note that Boston is just 6-10 after giving up two goals or less in three straight games over the last two seasons. They're also just 35-33, outscoring opponents by only 0.3 goals on average after a win over the same time frame. Meanwhile, the Sharks are 11-4 when playing at home after giving up 3+ goals in three straight games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average in that situation. You would have to go back 12 meetings between these two teams here in San Jose - all the way to 1999 - to find the last time Boston won a game by two or more goals. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (6*). |
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02-26-22 | South Dakota State v. UMKC +7.5 | Top | 86-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Summit League Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City plus the points over South Dakota State at 8 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the home underdog in this matchup between two red hot Summit League teams. South Dakota State has of course been the class of the conference all season, going undefeated to this point at 17-0. That includes a 32-point rout of Kansas City back on December 20th. Kansas City enters this game on a serious roll, however, having won eight consecutive games ATS. The Roos have done a tremendous job of locking down the opposition here at home, allowing just 21 made field goals per game on only 51 attempts. That includes just 5-of-19 shooting from beyond the arc. South Dakota State obviously has the offense to test those numbers but also finds itself in a tough spot, playing on just one day of rest following a wild 106-102 road win at Oral Roberts on Thursday. While the Jackrabbits are certainly capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard, I like the fact that the Roos come in on a heater as well, having shot better than 51% from the field in five of their last eight games and averaging just shy of 80 points per game on 48% shooting at home this season. Kansas City's recent success hasn't come out of nowhere as it is actually 29-15 ATS in its last 44 games against Summit League opposition. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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02-26-22 | Lightning v. Predators +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nashville +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. The Preds have righted the ship by posting consecutive wins after losing four in a row. They'll be in tough trying to make it three wins in a row against a Lightning squad that has reeled off three consecutive wins itself, but I'm comfortable backing Nashville with an insurance goal as it hosts this 'Stadium Series' game on Saturday. Note that Tampa is just 21-24 and an even 3.1-3.1 in terms of scoring average when coming off six or seven wins in its last eight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Bolts also check in an even 29-29 after scoring 3+ goals in three consecutive games over the same stretch, only managing to outscore opponents by 0.3 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Preds are 15-7 after losing four or five of their last six contests over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.4 goals. Take Nashville +1.5 goals (6*). |
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02-26-22 | San Francisco -13 v. San Diego | Top | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
CBB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over San Diego at 5 pm et on Saturday. After hanging tough through the early stages of conference play, San Diego has 'let go of the rope' so to speak, dropping five of its last six games SU (0-5-1 ATS). Opponents have absolutely abused the Toreros defense of late, knocking down 30+ field goals in four of those last six games. Things certainly won't get any easier against a San Francisco squad that will be looking to get back on track after a tough loss against mighty Gonzaga two nights ago. While the Dons have been a little uneven of late, that's had more to do with a couple of tough matchups with the aforementioned Zags and St. Mary's than anything else. They've still managed to win by 16+ points in three of their last five contests. I fully expect to see San Francisco clamp down on the San Diego offense here, noting that it allows just 23 made field goals including only five per game from three-point range on the road this season. While the Toreros could elect to play a little faster than usual, that will only afford to the Dons more scoring opportunities, noting that they've put up 100+ points twice in their last five games. When these two teams last met in January, San Francisco led by 14 points at halftime before easing off the gas in the second half. I don't expect that same sort of story to unfold here as they look to 'get right' off Thursday's lopsided defeat. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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02-26-22 | Northern Illinois +17 v. Buffalo | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
MAC Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Illinois plus the points over Buffalo at 2 pm et on Saturday. I love that we're catching a boatload of points in this quick rematch between these two MAC squads on Saturday afternoon in Buffalo. We won with the 'under' in this same matchup on Thursday as Northern Illinois at least held its own in a game that was reasonably competitive throughout (Buffalo eventually won by 11 points). The Huskies enter Saturday's game riding a five-game ATS winning streak but are still getting little respect from the oddsmakers. Buffalo, meanwhile, with its high-octane offense has become an overvalued commodity, dropping the cash in three consecutive games. While NIU is a poor 6-12 SU away from home this season, it has managed to post a solid 11-7 ATS mark. The Huskies have actually won outright as big underdogs in-conference at Kent State, Ball State and Akron with the latter two victories coming in the last two weeks. While the Huskies average only 22 made field goals per game including just six from beyond the arc on the road this season, they'll likely be afforded many more scoring opportunities than they're accustomed to here with Buffalo allowing opponents to get off 65 field goal attempts including 23 per game from three-point range here at home this season. Take Northern Illinois (10*). |
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02-26-22 | Arminia Bielefeld +1.5 v. Bayer Leverkusen | 0-3 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arminia Bielefeld +1.5 goals over Bayer Leverkusen at 9:30 am et on Saturday. The Bielefeld bandwagon, while not all that full to begin with, was effectively cleared following a 2-0 away loss against Hoffenheim back on February 13th. We did see the German side rebound with a 1-0 blanking of Union Berlin last time out, however, and I believe it can give Leverkusen a good run on Saturday as well. Note that Leverkusen has now gone an incredible 13 matches without recording a clean sheet. In other words, there will be plenty of opportunity for Bielefeld to get on the board in this one. It has actually been first to score in four of its last five matches overall, not to mention the fact that it has found the back of the net in six of its last eight matches against Leverkusen. The 'away' side has actually taken all three points in five straight matches between these two including a 2-1 result in favor of Bielefeld on this field last March. While Leverkusen is comfortably inside the top-six in the Bundesliga table, Bielefeld is still fighting to avoid relegation, sitting just three points clear of 16th-place Augsburg. I expect Bielefeld to go all out to potentially salvage a point, if not more from this match. Take Arminia Bielefeld +1.5 goals (8*). |
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02-25-22 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Pelicans entered the break on the heels of consecutive losses against the Grizzlies and Mavericks. Things won't get any easier as they head to Phoenix to face the Suns on Friday. With that being said, I'll gladly grab the generous helping of points with New Orleans in this spot. Note that Phoenix is fresh off a blowout win in Oklahoma City last night. As I expected, we saw the Suns really force the issue offensively in that one, looking to erase any doubt of how they will perform in the absence of Chris Paul. Here, I think things might get a little tougher playing the second of back-to-backs against a Pelicans squad that can hold its own offensively, boosted by the pre-trade deadline acquisition of C.J. McCollum. Note that Phoenix checks in 3-12 ATS when playing at home after winning four or five of its last six games ATS this season, outscoring opponents by just 5.5 points on average in that spot (compared to 9.3 points overall at home this season). Additionally, when coming off an ATS cover as a double-digit favorite over the last two seasons, the Suns have only managed to outscore their next opponent by an average margin of 1.2 points. The Pelicans check in having been outscored by just 0.4 points on average when coming off consecutive losses this season, as is the case here (20-game sample size). Also note that the Pelicans have outscored opponents by 0.3 points on average when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, also the case here (41-game sample size). Take New Orleans (10*). |
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02-24-22 | Islanders v. Sharks +1.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over New York at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. We won backing the Sharks on the puck-line two nights ago in Anaheim as they ultimately fell in a shootout against the Ducks. San Jose is now riding a seven-game losing streak but we'll once again get behind it with an insurance goal as it returns home to host New York on Thursday. Here, we'll again note that the Sharks are 10-4 when playing at home after allowing 3+ goals in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average in that spot. They're also 11-6 after giving up 4+ goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.2 goals in that situation. The last seven times the Sharks have played at home off six or more consecutive losses we've seen them average an impressive 4.5 goals per game while outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average. Meanwhile, the Islanders are a woeful 5-14 when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, averaging just 2.1 goals while getting outscored by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. When playing on the road off a road win by 3+ goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here, the Isles have averaged only 1.6 goals and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.5 goals. Keep in mind, New York is just 9-13 on the road this season where it has been outscored by 0.5 goals per game. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (6*). |
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02-24-22 | Bruins v. Seattle Kraken +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 goals over Boston at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll take a shot with the Kraken on the puck-line on Thursday as they look to get right on the heels of five consecutive losses. Boston will welcome Brad Marchand back from suspension for this game. The B's are coming off a 5-1 rout of the Avalanche in a matinee affair on Monday but now head out on the road where they're a modest 13-10, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 0.4 goals on the season. Remember, these two teams just met in Boston back on February 1st in a game that could have gone either way with the B's skating to a 3-2 victory. Here, we'll note that Boston is just 22-24 after winning two of its last three games over the last two seasons and 15-17 when coming off a game in which it allowed one goal or less over the same stretch, outscored by an average margin of 0.1 goals in that particular spot. In 26 previous occasions when coming off a victory this season, the B's have allowed 3.3 goals per game and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals. This is a situation where the Kraken have got the juices flowing a bit this season, noting that they've averaged 3.3 goals per game and have been outscored by only 0.3 goals on average (compared to being outscored by 1.0 goal on average overall this season) when coming off a home loss by 3+ goals, as is the case here. Take Seattle +1.5 goals (5*). |
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02-24-22 | Celtics v. Nets +8 | 129-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. While these two teams are at somewhat opposite ends of the spectrum given the current state of affairs for the Nets with Kevin Durant injured, Kyrie Irving unable to suit up in the state of New York and Ben Simmons still working his way back, I simply feel that the Celtics are being asked to lay too many points in this first game back out of the All-Star break. Here, we'll note that Boston is just 10-22 ATS when coming off four or five ATS wins over its last six games over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.8 points on average in that spot. That situation has come up 16 times previously this season, and the Celtics have been outscored by an average margin of 0.7 points. While the Nets are a woeful 4-12 ATS when coming off an ATS loss this season, they've actually managed to outscore opponents by 0.4 points on average in that situation. Note that they've outscored opponents by an average margin of 1.1 points on 40 previous occasions where they've come off four or five losses over their last six games over the last three seasons. Again, I simply feel the C's are laying a few too many in this spot. Take Brooklyn (8*). |
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02-24-22 | Blue Jackets v. Panthers -1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -150 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida -1.5 goals over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Blue Jackets are in an extremely tough spot on Thursday night as they travel to Florida to face a Panthers squad that blew multiple leads in an eventual 6-4 home loss to the Predators two nights ago - their first loss in four games. The Jackets are off three straight wins, scoring an incredible 18 goals over that stretch. I question whether they can keep it up on Thursday, however, with their engine Zach Werenski (he averages 26 minutes per game and anchors the power play) sidelined. Keep in mind, goaltender Elvis Merzlikins has been placed on I.R. as well, leaving third-string goaltender J.F. Berube to man the net for a third straight game. He's performed admirably in his first two starts but now faces a Panthers squad that averages 4.7 goals per game on home ice this season. Here, the Panthers have gone 23-4, outscoring opponents by 1.9 goals per game. Note that Florida is an incredible 16-1 when playing consecutive home games this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.6 goals in that situation. Take Florida -1.5 goals (4*). |
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02-24-22 | Sheriff +1.25 v. Sporting Braga | 0-2 | Loss | -112 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sheriff Tiraspol +1 goal over Sporting Braga at 3 pm et on Thursday. Sheriff took the first leg of this Europa League clash in stunning 2-0 fashion. The common line of thinking is that Sporting Braga will answer with a victory of its own on its home turf on Thursday. I'm not so easily convinced, however. Sheriff is undefeated in its last five matches while Braga checks in having conceded the first goal in five of its last seven contests. I feel that Braga is vulnerable from midfield back while Sheriff is brimming with confidence starting with Adama Traore up front all the way to keeper Giorgos Athanasiadis, who posted a clean sheet against Braga in the first leg. Expect Braga to face an uphill battle even on its home turf on Thursday. Take Sheriff Tiraspol (7*). |
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02-23-22 | Cardiff City +0.5 v. Huddersfield Town | 1-2 | Loss | -150 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cardiff City +0.5 goals over Huddersfield Town at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. To say that Cardiff City has owned this series would be an understatement. With its 2-1 victory in the last meeting back in November, Cardiff has now gone undefeated in the last 16 matches between these two sides. While it will be facing an uphill battle on Wednesday given that Huddersfield has gone undefeated over its last 15 matches overall, I believe it will be up for the challenge. All of the pressure lies on Huddersfield right now, as it sits just three points clear of seventh-place Sheffield United, currently holding down the second last spot in the Promotion Playoffs. Even a point would certainly go a long way toward improving its chances of locking up one of those coveted six spots. As for Cardiff City, it sits well back in 19th position but can breathe easy at the moment as it is a whopping 15 points clear of the first Relegation place, held down by Derby at the moment. Cardiff has been playing like a team with little to lose lately, securing 13 of a possible 18 points in its last six Championship matches. Interestingly, when factoring in only 'away' matches, Cardiff checks in a respectable 12th in the Championship. Meanwhile, Huddersfield drops to 10th when factoring in only 'home' affairs. Take Cardiff City +0.5 goals (7*). |
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02-22-22 | Sharks +1.5 v. Ducks | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Sharks are reeling right now, losers of six games in a row. With that being said, I do think they're well-positioned to at the very least take the Ducks down to the wire on Tuesday night in Anaheim. Note that while San Jose has lost six consecutive games, only two of those losses came by 2+ goals. The Sharks check in 5-1 this season when playing on the road after allowing 3+ goals in consecutive games this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 1.7 goals, allowing only 1.3 goals on average in that spot. They're also a solid 11-5 when coming off consecutive games in which they allowed 4+ goals over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.2 goals on average in that situation. While San Jose checks in 11-13 on the road this season, it has been outscored by an average margin of only 0.9 goals so the difference between a losing and winning road record isn't all that severe. The Ducks are coming off a 7-4 win in Vancouver on Saturday but that was their first victory in their last five contests. They've averaged just 2.5 goals per game and have been outscored by 0.1 goals on average when coming off a win by 3+ goals against a division opponent, working with a massive 95-game sample size. The Sharks are 6-5 in their last 11 meetings with the Ducks, winning four of their last six games here in Anaheim. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (5*). |
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02-22-22 | Kansas State +12.5 v. Kansas | Top | 83-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
My selection is on Kansas State plus the points over Kansas at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Wildcats as they head to Allen Fieldhouse to challenge the rival Jayhawks on Tuesday night. Kansas State enters this game off three consecutive ATS wins but dropped a three-point decision at Oklahoma on Saturday, just staying inside the pointspread in the SU defeat. The Wildcats have shot sub-40% from the field in their last two games - one game shy of their longest such streak of the season. Note that they've gone 4-1 SU and ATS when coming off consecutive games shooting below 40% from the field this season. They allowed Oklahoma to shoot 51.9% from the field in Saturday's narrow loss. That's happened only twice previously this season and in their next game they've allowed opponents to shoot just 40-for-109 (36.7%) from the field. I realize they're facing a difficult challenge here against an elite Kansas squad. However, it is worth noting that the Jayhawks come into this game having scored 70+ points in six consecutive games. Prior to that stretch, Kansas had scored 70+ points in just four of its first seven Big 12 contests this season. Obviously, it would be an uphill battle for the Jayhawks to cover a pointspread as large as the one we're looking at tonight without scoring 70+ points. It's also notable that the Jayhawks have held three straight opponents to fewer than 70 points. They did so just once previously in Big 12 play this season and in their next game posted a close 78-75 win over tonight's opponent, Kansas State. The difference in that game was a 30-18 (21-11 made) free throw disparity in favor of the Jayhawks. I do have confidence that Kansas State can narrow that gap in tonight's game, while also keeping the game's pace in check, much like it did in the first meeting this season, helping ultimately keep the final score inside the number. Here, we'll note that the Jayhawks are 0-6 ATS after giving up 65 points or less in consecutive games this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by just 3.7 points on average in that spot. Take Kansas State (7*). |
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02-22-22 | Lille OSC +1.5 v. Chelsea | 0-2 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Lille +1.5 goals over Chelsea at 3 pm et on Tuesday. Lille goes from being a massive favorite (and falling short in a 0-0 draw) against Ligue 1 opponent Metz last Friday to a significant underdog against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in Champions League action on Tuesday. I'll gladly grab the insurance goal with the French side as it looks to play the role of David against Goliath. Maybe that's a bit too strong of an analogy. After all, there are really no 'Davids' left at this stage of the Champions League. Chelsea enters this match riding a five-match winning streak and undefeated in its last six. With that being said, I wouldn't consider it to be in peak form, noting that it's last four matches have come against relatively weak opposition, including an uninspiring 1-0 away win at Crystal Palace on Saturday. I suspect we'll see Lille sell out to defend for as long as it can in this one, noting that Chelsea has had a tendency to strike first and control its matches, scoring the first goal in five of its last six contests. Lille has conceded only four goals through six Champions League matches - an identical mark to that of Chelsea. The Blues have had the better scoring touch with 13 goals compared to Lille's seven, but I'm not going to count out the French outfit led by Canadian standout Jonathan David. I look for Lille to relish the underdog role on Tuesday. Take Lille +1.5 goals (8*). |
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02-20-22 | Stars v. Coyotes +1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Puck-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona +1.5 goals over Dallas at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. The Coyotes fell again last night, blowing a 3-1 lead in an eventual 5-3 home loss to the Kings. I do think they draw the Stars in a favorable spot on Sunday, however, and will go back to the well with the 'Yotes with an insurance goal here. Note that the Stars, while coming off a 1-0 shootout win in Chicago on Friday, are still just 10-13 on the road this season where they average only 2.4 goals per game and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals per contest. Dallas checks in a woeful 1-8 when playing on the road after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by a whopping 2.2 goals on average in that spot. As for the Coyotes, they're 9-4 when coming off consecutive home losses over the last two seasons, allowing just 2.4 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average in that situation. They've allowed only 2.1 goals per game, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.1 goals when playing at home after giving up 4+ goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here (19-game sample size). Dallas took the most recent meeting between these two teams by a 4-1 score back in December. That was in Dallas, however. The last time they met here in Arizona in November, the Stars skated to a narrow 3-2 victory. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (10*). |
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02-20-22 | RB Leipzig v. Hertha Berlin +1 | 6-1 | Loss | -101 | 16 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Hertha Berlin +1.0 goal over RB Leipzig at 1:30 pm et on Sunday. Leipzig is on the verge of moving into the top-six in the Bundesliga table but I believe it will be in tough on Sunday against Hertha Berlin. Note that when factoring in only 'away' matches, Leipzig sits a poor 14th in the table with a -4 goal differential. Hertha Berlin enters Sunday's contest having gone winless in its last six matches but should benefit from facing a rather forgiving Leipzig side that has yielded goals in three straight contests. I can't help but feel we're going to see a letdown from Leipzig on Sunday as it comes off of a three-game stretch that saw it face Bayern Munich, FC Koln and finally Real Sociedad in Europa League action. All three matches were hard-fought affairs with Leipzig going 1-1-1. Hertha Berlin hasn't been able to find its footing lately but off a 2-1 away loss against last-place Furth, I look for it to bring its best on Sunday. Take Hertha Berlin +1.0 goal (8*). |
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02-20-22 | Providence -3 v. Butler | 71-70 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Providence minus the points over Butler at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Big East picture has certainly crystallized with teams like Providence, Villanova and UConn at the top and Butler, DePaul and Georgetown pulling up the rear. With Providence coming off a tough home loss to Villanova, I look for the Friars to take advantage of this bounce-back matchup against Butler on Sunday. The Friars already took the first meeting between these two teams this season but failed to cover the spread. Here, we're working with a more manageable spread, despite the fact that Butler has been an awful bet at home this season, going 4-9 ATS. While the Bulldogs are capable of staging an upset here at home, I'm confident the Friars will have their guard up off the loss to 'Nova - just their third defeat of the season. Take Providence (8*). |
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02-19-22 | Stetson v. Liberty -15 | 82-88 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Liberty minus the points over Stetson at 7 pm et on Saturday. We've had some success playing Stetson 'overs' this season but here I won't hesitate to switch gears and play the side, fading the road Hatters as they head to Liberty Arena to face the Flames. Liberty already defeated Stetson by 16 points on the road this season. It shot well in that contest but certainly didn't do anything special. In fact, Stetson ended up getting off three more three-point attempts and also got to the line 11 more times than Liberty in that contest. I'm confident we'll see the flip script in those two departments here. Liberty is coming off consecutive outright road losses as a favorite, dropping close games against Jacksonville and North Florida. It will be more than happy to take its frustrations out on Stetson here, noting that Liberty is 10-1 on its home floor this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 27 points per contest. Take Liberty (8*). |
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02-19-22 | SIU-Edwardsville v. Belmont -21.5 | 62-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Belmont minus the points over SIU-Edwardsville at 5 pm et on Saturday. Belmont enters this game on the heels of nine straight wins but has actually gone 0-5 ATS over its last five contests. Look for that latter streak to come to an end here. We certainly saw signs of the Bruins breaking out of their recent malaise last time out as they crushed Eastern Illinois by 24 points - still failing to cover as a monster 27-point favorite. The Bruins broke loose for 60+ field goal attempts in that game - knocking down an impressive 59% of them and now get to stay home to host an Edwardsville squad that has done nothing to slow opposing offenses away from home (or anywhere for that matter) this season. The last couple of meetings between these two teams have been a little closer than expected but keep in mind, we're just two and three meetings removed from Belmont wins by 32 and 52-point margins. Take Belmont (7*). |
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02-19-22 | Ball State v. Bowling Green -3 | Top | 91-82 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Bowling Green minus the points over Ball State at 5 pm et on Saturday. We faded Bowling Green last Saturday and were rewarded with a lopsided win by Miami-Ohio. That was on the road, where the Falcons have struggled all season. They do at least own a winning record at 8-5 here at home. They'll be looking to avenge a tough 81-80 loss on the road against Ball State back on New Year's Day. The two teams were virtual mirror images of one another on that day, with the exception being Ball State was able to knock down a few more of its shots. Here, we'll note that the Cardinals have struggled on the road this season, going 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS. While Ball State was able to keep pace with Bowling Green at home, we should see a different story unfold here. Note that the Falcons average a blistering 87.2 points per game on their home floor. Ball State, meanwhile, has allowed opponents to shoot just shy of 47% from the field on the road, giving up north of 82 points per contest. With Ball State checking in a woeful 3-13 ATS when listed as a road underdog or 'pk going back to last season, we'll confidently back the hometown Falcons here. Take Bowling Green (10*). |
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02-19-22 | Houston Baptist v. Nicholls State -12 | 70-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nicholls State minus the points over Houston Baptist at 4 pm et on Saturday. Houston Baptist enters this game off three consecutive ATS wins while Nicholls State has dropped the cash in four consecutive games. With that being said, Nicholls State continues to win, having recorded six straight victories. Houston Baptist has done a nice job masquerading as a quality offensive team lately, putting up 80+ points in three of its last four games but I expect that scoring run to grind to a halt here. Note that Nicholls State has held opponents to just under 67 points per game on sub-40% shooting here at home this season. It has done that while also playing at a blistering pace offensively, getting off an incredible 72 field goal attempts per game on its home floor, knocking down better than 50% of them. The first meeting between these two teams this season went Nicholls State's way by only 12 points, but the margin would have been much larger had it been able to knock down more than two of its 16 three-point attempts. Take Nicholls State (8*). |
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02-18-22 | Kings +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
NHL Division Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 goals over Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Kings were sluggish following their extended layoff, returning to the ice with a 5-2 home loss to the Oilers on Tuesday. Keep in mind, that game wasn't quite as lopsided as the final score indicated as Edmonton scored a pair of late empty net goals to stretch out the eventual winning margin. The Kings have certainly held their own on the road this season, posting a .500 record while being outscored by a slight average margin of 0.2 goals. As for the Knights, they've been uneven for much of the campaign and haven't had the same strong home ice advantage as we've seen in years' past. They're just 14-13 here in Las Vegas, outscoring opponents by just 0.3 goals on average. Here, we'll note that the Kings are 9-4 when coming off a loss by 3+ goals against a division opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that spot. They've averaged an impressive 4.3 goals per game and outscored the opposition by 1.2 goals on average after giving up 3+ goals in four consecutive games over the last two seasons (eight-game sample size), which is also the spot they're in tonight. On the flip side of that, we've seen Los Angeles give up only 2.6 goals per contest when coming off a home loss by multiple goals over the last three seasons (24-game sample size). With the Knights missing goaltender Robin Lehner, not to mention Mark Stone (among others), I'm not sure even the recent debut of Jack Eichel can help spark a comfortable win for the home side on Friday. Take Los Angeles +1.5 goals (10*). |
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02-18-22 | Predators +1.5 v. Hurricanes | 3-5 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nashville +1.5 goals over Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are surprisingly struggling here in mid-February. I'm expecting an ultra-competitive affair on Friday night as neither team can afford to let another two points slip away. Note that the Preds check in 13-6 when coming off four or five losses in their last six games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.5 goals on average in that situation. Better still, they're 8-1 when coming off consecutive losses by 2+ goals over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 1.8 goals. On seven previous occasions where the Preds were held to a goal or less in their last game this season, they've responded by averaging 4.0 goals in their next contest. As for the Canes, they've stumbled trying to regain their footing when playing at home off a home loss over the last two seasons, as is the case here, only managing to score 2.3 goals per game while giving up an identical scoring average in that spot. Take Nashville +1.5 goals (8*). |
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02-18-22 | Metz +1.5 v. Lille OSC | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Metz +1.5 goals over Lille at 3 pm et on Friday. I don't have a lot negative to say about Lille. It is the superior squad in this match but I can't ignore the fact that Metz has played a different brand of football away from home this season, not to mention the fact that it proved to be a real thorn in Lille's side the last time these two squads met, scoring a goal in added time to come away with a point in a 3-3 draw. The most impressive part of that point earned was the fact that Metz did so down a man after being issued a red card earlier in the match. Here, we'll note that when factoring in only 'away' matches, Metz checks in ranked 10th in Ligue 1 this season (compared to 19th overall). Meanwhile, Lille has had no significant advantage at home in league play. When factoring in only 'home' matches, Lille sits an identical 10th to its overall record, still with a negative goal differential. It seems that no match is ever over until its over when it comes to Lille, noting that both teams have found the back of the net in six of its last eight matches, not to mention the fact that it has allowed 18 of its 35 goals in the final 15 minutes of either the first or second half in Ligue 1 play this season. Winless in its last three matches, I expect Metz to 'go for it' in this one. Take Metz +1.5 goals (6*). |
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02-17-22 | Canucks v. Sharks +1.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Vancouver at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. While we're being asked to lay a steep price to grab the insurance goal with the Sharks at home on Thursday night, I believe that price is warranted. San Jose returned from a nearly two-week layoff with a rather lifeless 3-0 loss to the Oilers on Monday. I certainly anticipate we'll see the Sharks bounce back here, however, noting that they're 6-1 when coming off a home loss by 3+ goals this season, outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals on average in that situation. They're also 9-3 when coming off consecutive defeats this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that spot. The Canucks average only 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road after scoring 3+ goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals on the 19 previous occasions that situation came up. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (5*). |
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02-17-22 | Blue Jackets +1.5 v. Blackhawks | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 31 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Columbus +1.5 goals over Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. The Blue Jackets are coming off a 6-2 loss in Calgary on Tuesday but are well-positioned to bounce back here, noting they've still won five of their last seven games. They'll catch the Blackhawks starting backup goaltender Arvid Soderblom, noting that he's appeared in two games this season, posting a poor .882 save precentage. Chicago posted a 3-1 win on the road against Winnipeg on Monday night, with goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury stealing the show in that one. That puts Chicago in a poor spot here, noting that it has gone a woeful 3-16 when coming off a victory by two goals or more over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.7 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, Columbus checks in 11-5 when coming off a loss by 2+ goals this season, as is the case here, averaging 3.4 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on averave in that spot. Take Columbus +1.5 goals (8*). |
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02-17-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Borussia Dortmund | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
Europa League Game of the Month. My selection is on Rangers +1.5 goals over Borussia Dortmund at 12:45 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Dortmund's most recent match - a 3-0 blanking of FC Union Berlin on Sunday. That was a bit of a surprising result, not that Dortmund managed to collect all three points as that was always a distinct possibility, but certainly that it won by such a lopsided margin, especially with all-world striker Erling Haaland sidelined due to injury. Here, most will expect Dortmund to keep it rolling against a seemingly overmatched side in Rangers but I'm not so easily convinced. Rangers enters this Europa League clash on a roll, having won three matches in a row, not conceding in any of those three contests. Meanwhile, Dortmund, while fresh off a clean sheet of its own has actually seen both teams find the back of the net in six of its last seven matches. I do think there's a path for Rangers to ripple the net at least once in this match. Given the fact that we're dealing with a relatively low total (by Dortmund standards), I believe that lends itself to a tightly-contested affair in the first leg of this matchup (the two teams will meet up again next Thursday in Scotland). Take Rangers +1.5 goals (10*). |
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02-17-22 | Napoli +0.5 v. Barcelona FC | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Napoli +0.5 goals over Barcelona at 12:45 pm et on Thursday. Barcelona has been as inconsistent as they come lately, securing victory just twice in its last six matches. While this may certainly appear to be a favorable bounce-back spot in the first leg against Italian side Napoli, I'm not so sure it will be a walk in the park for Barca. Note that Napoli enters this match undefeated over its last four contests. It has been clinical in its attack, scoring first in six of its last seven contests while leading at the half in five of those matches. As for Barca, it hasn't been nearly as airtight defensively as we've come to expect, allowing the opposition to find the back of the net in six of its last seven matches. Napoli promises to provide a rather stingy challenge here, noting that it has seen eight of its last 10 contests finish with fewer than 2.5 total goals. While Barca is undefeated in the last four matches between these two squads, they haven't met since August of 2020. Barca is obviously a different team now than it was then and I expect Napoli to be up to the challenge on Thursday at Camp Nou. Take Napoli +0.5 goals (8*). |
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02-16-22 | Boise State v. Air Force +10.5 | 85-59 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Air Force plus the points over Boise State at 10 pm et on Wednesday. When these two teams met back on January 18th in Boise, the Broncos prevailed by just six points. That was despite a wide 32-14 disparity in terms of free throw attempts in favor of the hometown Broncos, not to mention the fact that Air Force turned the basketball over a whopping 20 times. I would anticipate the Falcons improving in both of those areas with the scene shifting to Colorado Springs for Wednesday's rematch. Note that while the Falcons come into this game on the heels of five straight losses, Boise State has a streak of futility of its own having gone 0-4 ATS over its last four contests. Off a home loss to Colorado State on Sunday, the Broncos will simply be looking to pick up a 'W' and move on against a stingy opponent in Air Force on Wednesday. Winning by margin is of little consequence but we're being given a generous helping of points with the home underdog. Note that Air Force has done a tremendous job of slowing the pace down to a crawl and frustrating the opposition here at home this season, allowing an average of just 50 field goal attempts per contest. Also note that the Falcons are a solid 7-1 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, outscored by an average margin of just 2.2 points in that situation. Take Air Force (8*). |
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02-15-22 | Villanova v. Providence +4.5 | 89-84 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Providence plus the points over Villanova at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Providence almost got caught looking past DePaul on its home floor on Saturday but ultimately prevailed by three points in overtime, never sniffing out an ATS cover in that contest. I think in some ways as a result of that sleepy performance, we know get to grab almost a handful of points with the Friars at home - where they're 14-0 this season - against Villanova. The Wildcats were involved in a tough game of their own on Saturday, outlasting Seton Hall by six points. Providence always seems to give Villanova trouble on this floor - even weaker Friars squads of years' past. Last season, Providence won by two points as a four-point home underdog. In 2019 and 2020 they lost by six and four points, respectively. In 2018, the Friars upset the Wildcats as a 9.5-point underdog. You get the picture. It's certainly worth noting that five of Villanova's six losses this season have come on the road, where they've outscored opponents by an average margin of only 3.5 points per game. Providence checks in a perfect 7-0 ATS in an underdog role this season, actually managing to outscore opponents by 6.0 points on average in that situation. With super sixth-man Jared Bynum taking his game to another level over the last two games, leading the Friars in scoring on both contests, I like Providence's chances of keeping it rolling ahead of a return date against 'Nova on March 1st. Take Providence (6*). |
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02-15-22 | Celtics v. 76ers +1.5 | Top | 135-87 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Celtics are absolutely rolling right now, winners of eight games in a row, going 5-2-1 ATS over that stretch. Keep in mind, they were favored by at least six points in all eight of those contests. They'll face their toughest challenge in weeks on Tuesday night, as they go up against a rested 76ers squad that hasn't taken the floor since posting an impressive double-digit win over the Cavs on Saturday night. It seems as though the Philadelphia bandwagon was cleared thanks to last week's home loss to the Suns. That's not to mention the fact that James Harden remains sidelined after coming over in last week's blockbuster trade with the Nets. Note that Boston is just 13-15 SU on the road this season, including a 111-99 loss here in Philadelphia back in mid-January - a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated. The 76ers are a modest 16-12 at home this season but have outscored opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points per game. Here, we'll note that Boston is a woeful 5-16 ATS when coming off a double-digit victory over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.9 points in that spot. Philadelphia on the other hand has gone a terrific 40-26 ATS when playing consecutive home games over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 6.7 points on average in that situation. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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02-13-22 | Rams v. Bengals +4.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 80 h 14 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Year. My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Los Angeles at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. |
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02-13-22 | Arminia Bielefeld +1 v. Hoffenheim | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arminia Bielefield +1 goal over 1899 Hoffenheim at 11:30 am et on Sunday. The goal line spread may make some sense at first glance but a closer look indicates the wrong side might even be favored in this one. Arminia is a true upstart in Bundesliga play this season and enters this match having gone undefeated over its last six matches. Meanwhile Hoffenheim is completely out of sorts having lost four in a row. Worse still it has gone 10 matches without posting a clean sheet. That gives us a nice overlay here when you consider Arminia has seen seven of its last nine contests stay ‘under’ 2.5 goals. Also noting that four of the last five matches in this series have totalled two goals or less, I’m comfortable backing the underdog side with an insurance goal in this one. Take Arminia Bielefield +1 goal (8*). |
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02-12-22 | Clippers +7 v. Mavs | Top | 99-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. We settled for a push with the Clippers in the front half of this two-game set in Dallas. We were somewhat fortunate as the Clips trailed that game virtually the entire way and Luka Doncic went off for 51 points. Here, I'm confident in Los Angeles' ability to make the necessary adjustments and close the gap in a quick rematch on Saturday. Despite Doncic's incredible performance, there actually wasn't all that much separating the two teams on Thursday. Dallas knocked down four more threes (on 16 more attempts) and also made good on five more free throws. Note that the Clippers are a terrific 9-1 ATS when playing on the road after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 13.4 points on average in that situation. In 35 previous occasions where Dallas played at home off an ATS win over the last two seasons, it has only managed to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 1.5 points. After allowing 105 points or less in their previous contest this season, the Mavs have outscored opponents by just 1.2 points on average (30-game sample size). Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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02-12-22 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH -1 | 78-94 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami-Ohio minus the points over Bowling Green at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I expect Miami-Ohio to have opportunities abound in this one as it looks to post a second straight win after snapping a five-game losing streak with a win over Western Michigan last time out. Bowling Green has managed to go just 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS on the road this season as it has had no luck at all trying to contain opposing offenses. The Falcons check in allowing 62 field goal attempts per game, 28 of those from three-point range and 22 free throw attempts on the road this season. Not surprisingly it all adds up to giving up just shy of 81 points per game away from home. While the Redhawks have struggled as a whole lately, and certainly from an ATS perspective, they do continue to do a good job of buttoning up opposing offenses here at home. By contrast, they allow just 57 field goal attempts and give up only 15 trips to the free throw line here on their home floor. Bowling Green took the first meeting between these two teams by an 87-83 score at home in early January. The only real difference in that one was that the Falcons had a 23-9 disparity in terms of free throw attempts, knocking down 12 more of those freebies than the Redhawks. Miami-Ohio got off a whopping 44 three-point attempts in that game, making good on 15 of them. Look for the Redhawks to get their revenge at home on Saturday. Take Miami-Ohio (9*). |
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02-12-22 | Sacred Heart -1.5 v. Fairleigh Dickinson | Top | 75-82 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
CBB NEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Sacred Heart minus the points over Fairleigh Dickinson at 1 pm et on Saturday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a worse Division I college basketball team than Fairleigh Dickinson this season. KenPom ranks them ahead of only eight other teams in the country and I think even that is a fairly forgiving ranking. The Knights lone victory since the start of January came against another awful NEC squad in Central Connecticut State. Sacred Heart certainly doesn't bring much 'wow factor' either but it has at least been playing competitive basketball in-conference. Just one week ago it pulled out a hard-fought overtime win on the road against St. Francis-Brooklyn and just two nights prior to that took LUI-Brooklyn down to the wire in a 79-75 road loss. These two teams just met back on January 15th with Sacred Heart prevailing by a score of 77-71. FDU lost that game by six points despite getting off a whopping 70 field goal attempts compared to Sacred Heart's 56. The Knights also won the turnover battle by a 14-11 margin in that game. I don't expect them to repeat either of those feats on Saturday as I look for Sacred Heart to dictate the tempo and ultimately pick up a win to gain some ground in the NEC (it enters Saturday's action just a half-game out of fifth place while FDU sits in last place). Take Sacred Heart (10*). |
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02-10-22 | Bucks +4 v. Suns | Top | 107-131 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Bucks are playing as well as any team in the league right now, winners of four straight games both SU and ATS, scoring 130+ points in each of their last three contests. Ordinarily, I might look to fade a team on such a run but not in this spot as Milwaukee wraps up its four-game road trip with a game it will have no difficulty getting up for against the team in defeated in last year's NBA Finals - the Phoenix Suns. The Suns are playing well. They've lost just one game going all the way back to January 11th. With that being said, they're just an even 5-5 ATS over their last 10 games. The Bucks might be without Grayson Allen for this game after he suffered a hip injury but the Suns continue to play on without underrated contributor Cam Payne as well. While the Bucks might be a little road weary at the end of this trip, the Suns will be playing their fifth game in the last eight nights, in five different cities. Phoenix is obviously one of the best teams in the league - at times THE best team in the league this season. However, the Bucks found a way to make the Suns look very ordinary in reeling off four straight wins (after falling behind 2-0) in last year's Finals. Phoenix has outscored its opponents by an average margin of 7.6 points this season. However, it has only outscored opponents by 4.4 points on average when coming off three or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. The Bucks have been an excellent 'positive momentum' play having averaged 120.2 points per game, outscoring opponents by an average of 9.9 points when coming off consecutive double-digit victories over the last three seasons (48-game sample size). Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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02-10-22 | Clippers +7 v. Mavs | 105-112 | Push | 0 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Phoenix at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. The Clippers limp into this game off back-to-back losses but there's no need to push the panic button as those two losses came against two of the league's best teams in the Bucks and Grizzlies. L.A. has now dropped the cash in four straight games but I believe that's affording us a very generous helping of points with it as it heads to Dallas to face the surging Mavs on Thursday. Dallas has won three games in a row, both SU and ATS, including a 30-point rout of the Pistons last time out. Here, we'll note that Jason Kidd has not fared well in this situation over the course of his head coaching career, with his teams going 16-33 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive wins, outscored by an average of 4.4 points in that situation. The Clippers meanwhile, are 36-21 ATS when playing on the road off an ATS loss over the last three seasons. Better still, they're 9-1 ATS when playing on the road after losing four of their last five games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.5 points in that situation. This will be the 13th meeting between these two teams going back to the start of last season. I believe the Mavs are simply laying too many points in this spot. Take Los Angeles (9*). |
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02-10-22 | Hofstra v. Drexel -1 | Top | 83-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
CAA Game of the Year. My selection is on Drexel minus the points over Hofstra at 7 pm et on Thursday. These two teams have been polar opposites in the luck department this season and as a result Hofstra checks in with the better overall record and a one-game edge in the Colonial Athletic Association. In fact, Hofstra ranks 106th in the country in luck rating - a metric developed by KenPom - while Drexel checks in 291st. With that being said, both teams come in off consecutive wins. I believe Drexel is better positioned to keep it going on Thursday, however, as it looks to avenge an earlier three-point loss at Hofstra back on January 17th. Note that the Dragons are 13-5 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 8.7 points on average. Better still, they're 10-2 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring foes by an average margin of 4.6 points in that spot. Note that Hofstra gets to the free throw line five fewer times per game on the road than Drexel does at home, while also averaging one less made three-pointer per contest on two more attempts. Off consecutive emotional wins at home (one came in overtime against James Madison and the other by two points against UNC-Wilmington), I look for Hofstra to come up short on the road on Thursday. Take Drexel (10*). |
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02-09-22 | Warriors v. Jazz -3 | Top | 85-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Jazz have reeled off three straight wins on their current homestand but can't afford to let their guard down after they had lost 11 of their previous 13 contests. The Warriors, on the other hand, can afford to 'manage' things on a game-to-game basis and will once again sit Klay Thompson for this front half of a back-to-back set at the Jazz and back home against the Knicks. Remember, one week ago tonight the Warriors rested Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins, essentially 'punting' the game against the Spurs but San Antonio was extremely forgiving, coughing up a 15-point fourth quarter lead in a four-point loss. I don't expect the Jazz to be nearly as forgiving on Wednesday. Utah has been one of the most streaky teams in the league from an ATS perspective in recent years and checks into this one having gone 18-7 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 13.3 points on average in that spot. The Jazz have undoubtedly had this game circled on their calendar since dropping a tough 94-92 decision in San Francisco back on January 23rd. Utah could have certainly used Donovan Mitchell in that game. In two games since returning from a concussion, Mitchell has contributed 59 points, 10 rebounds and 12 assists in just 56 minutes of action. The Warriors have actually taken both previous meetings in this series this season and four in a row going back to last season. That sort of run of success in this series hasn't been common, however. You would have to go back to 2017 to find the last time Golden State won five straight matchups against the Jazz, and that included a four-game series sweep in the playoffs. Look for Utah to get back at the Warriors on Wednesday. Take Utah (10*). |
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02-06-22 | Pacers +5.5 v. Cavs | Top | 85-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. |
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02-06-22 | Washington v. Stanford -4.5 | 69-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Stanford minus the points over Washington at 4 pm et on Sunday. I like the way this spot sets up for Stanford as it comes off a disappointing home loss against Washington State and hosts a Washington squad fresh off three straight wins, both SU and ATS, including an upset win at Cal last time out. Note that the Huskies have gone winless in two previous tries coming off a road win this season, failing to cover the spread in both of those games as well. Meanwhile, Stanford is a solid 88-63 ATS after losing four or five of its last six games ATS, as is the case here. The Cardinal improve on their terrific 9-2 home record here. Take Stanford (8*). |
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02-06-22 | Akron v. Miami-OH +3.5 | 71-59 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami-Ohio plus the points over Akron at 4 pm et on Sunday. It's certainly been a rough ride for the Redhawks of Miami-Ohio lately as they've lost four games in a row SU and nine straight ATS entering Sunday's rematch with Akron (the Zips took Friday's meeting by a 66-55 score at home). Note that Akron has closed as a road favorite just once previously this season, winning that game by just four points as a 12.5-point favorite against Central Michigan. Despite their recent struggles, the Redhawks are still a winning team at home this season at 6-5 SU. The Zips, meanwhile, are 4-5 SU and ATS on the road. The Redhawks actually got off seven more field goal attempts than the Zips on Friday but Akron ultimately held a 17-7 edge in terms of free throw attempts and shot 50% from the field in the win. Take Miami-Ohio (7*). |
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02-06-22 | Pistons +12 v. Wolves | 105-118 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Minnesota at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. These two teams are clearly heading in opposite directions right now with the Pistons losers of three games in a row (1-2 ATS) and the T'Wolves having won three straight (3-0 ATS) including a 128-117 win in Detroit on Thursday. Keep in mind, that meeting was closer than the final score indicated as the Pistons were actually within five points with less than a minute remaining. Here, we'll note that Detroit checks in a highly-profitable 26-13 ATS off three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons while Minnesota is 11-23 ATS at home against non-conference opponents over the last three seasons and 25-40 ATS in their last 65 games following a win. Take Detroit (9*). |
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02-06-22 | Wisc-Milwaukee +10.5 v. Cleveland State | 71-84 | Loss | -111 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wisconsin-Milwaukee plus the points over Cleveland State at 3 pm et on Sunday. Milwaukee enters this game on the heels of four straight losses, both SU and ATS, with all four of those setbacks coming by double-digit margins. Keep in mind, their previous season-high in terms of consecutive double-digit losses was three. The schedule obviously plays a role and here Milwaukee plays its fourth consecutive Horizon League road game. Needless to say, the Panthers will have no trouble getting up for Cleveland State - one of the best teams in the conference. Here, we'll note that the Vikings are a miserable 1-7 ATS after winning two of their last three games ATS this season, as is the case here. They're also 4-14 ATS when coming off a game in which they shot 55% or better from the field, also the situation here after their blowout win over Wisconsin-Green Bay on Friday. Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee (8*). |
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02-06-22 | Marist +4.5 v. St. Peter's | 50-66 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Marist plus the points over St. Peter's at 2 pm et on Sunday. The Marist Red Foxes check into this game off four consecutive losses, both SU and ATS but I'm confident we'll see them give St. Peter's a serious run on Sunday afternoon. The Peacocks easily dispatched Quinnipiac here at home on Friday - their fourth straight ATS victory. Here, they'll have their hands full with a Marist squad that has gone 15-6 ATS when coming off a road loss over the last three seasons while St. Peter's owns a woeful 34-53 ATS mark when playing consecutive home games. While Marist dropped the first meeting between these two teams in late January, it hasn't lost consecutive matchups with St. Peter's since 2019-20. Take Marist (9*). |
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02-06-22 | Green Bay +10 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | 55-71 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wisconsin-Green Bay plus the points over IUPU-Fort Wayne at 2 pm et on Sunday. Wisconsin-Green Bay enters this game off four consecutive losses - all on the road - but I expect it to hang tough in Fort Wayne on Sunday afternoon, noting that it has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS when coming off four or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. Green Bay 'only' lost by 16 points against a superior Cleveland State squad on the road last time out, despite allowing the Vikings to shoot a blistering 63.5% from the field. It won't be difficult for Green Bay to get up for this one but I think it will be for Fort Wayne, which checks in off a double-digit home win over Wisconsin-Milwaukee on Friday. Take Wisconsin-Green Bay (8*). |
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02-06-22 | Providence v. Georgetown +7 | Top | 71-52 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgetown plus the points over Providence at 12 noon et on Sunday. Providence has now won six consecutive games, including an upset victory at St. John's last time out. Since defeating Georgetown by eight points (but failing to cover) on January 20th, the Friars have been involved in four straight highly-contested games against Butler, Xavier, Marquette and St. John's. It's going to be very difficult for Ed Cooley's team to avoid a letdown here. Meanwhile, the Hoyas haven't won a game since December 15th against Howard. They do check in 3-2-1 ATS over their last six games though and catch the Friars laying points on the road for the first time this season. Take Georgetown (10*). |
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02-05-22 | Western Illinois v. UMKC | 82-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on UMKC minus the points over Western Illinois at 8 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Western Illinois' most recent game - a stunning upset win on the road against Oral Roberts on Thursday. Here, I suspect it will be in tough trying to replicate that performance against a surging UMKC squad on Saturday night. Western Illinois has had no ability whatsoever to control the tempo, or at least keep it in check on the road this season. Nor has it had any interest in doing so. That spells trouble here, though, as it faces a UMKC team that is just as comfortable playing an up-tempo game at home, where it averages just shy of 79 points per game on north of 47% shooting. UMKC enters this game having won five of its last six overall, going 4-2 ATS over that stretch. That includes an eight-point victory at Western Illinois earlier this week. The Roos won that game despite a 10-point disparity in favor of the Leathernecks at the free throw line. While Western Illinois would love go get some quick revenge here, it will be in tough as the Roos have done a tremendous job of controlling the tempo of opponents here at home, allowing only 49 field goal attempts per contest. Add in the letdown factor with the Leathernecks having shot well above their season average in that most recent game against Oral Roberts and I like the value being offered with UMKC at a virtual pk'em price here. Take UMKC (8*). |
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02-03-22 | Wolves v. Pistons +7.5 | 128-117 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Teams don't have an easy time getting up for trip to Detroit to face the lowly Pistons. That's a big reason why Detroit has managed to hang tough at home, going 13-11 ATS, outscored by just 4.5 points on average despite dropping 16 of 24 games SU. Since the beginning of January alone, the Pistons have defeated the likes of the Spurs, Jazz, Raptors and Cavs while also taking the Nuggets down to the wire in a five-point loss. For Minnesota, the situation is compounded by the fact that it is coming off consecutive home wins over the Nuggets and Jazz. While the T'Wolves are 15-10 SU at home this season, they've gone just 11-15 on the road, outscored by 1.0 point per game along the way. Here, we'll note that they're just 17-29 ATS when coming off a win over the last two seasons, outscored by an average of 1.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Pistons are 25-12 ATS when coming off a home loss over the last two seasons and also 40-24 ATS after scoring 105 points or less over the same stretch, as is the case here. Take Detroit (8*). |
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02-02-22 | Wizards v. 76ers -10 | Top | 106-103 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This one sets up nicely for the 76ers as they look to avenge a 117-98 loss in Washington on Martin Luther King Jr. Day (we won with the Wizards in that game). Washington is in the second of back-to-backs after fading late in a 14-point loss in Washington last night. The Wizards scored just 98 points in that game despite getting a season-high 20 points on 9-of-15 shooting from Montresz Harrell off the bench. Already without Bradley Beal, the Wiz also lost Thomas Bryant in that game. Bryant isn't generally a major factor but he does eat 15-20 minutes per game and did contribute 15 points in Washington's win over Philadelphia a couple of weeks ago. The 76ers managed to outlast the Grizzlies here on Monday, despite giving Joel Embiid the night off. Embiid should be back for this one. Note that while Philadelphia has scored over 100 points in seven straight games, Washington has been held under the century mark in three of its last four and things aren't likely to improve until Bradley Beal can return. Prior to that sleepy matinee affair in Washington on MLK Day, the Sixers had put up 117, 129, 114, 132, 120, 125, 127 and 141 points in their previous eight meetings with the Wizards. Note that the Wiz have given up an average of 120.8 points when playing the second of back-to-back road games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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02-02-22 | Hartford v. New Hampshire -4.5 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
CBB America East Game of the Year. My selection is on New Hampshire minus the points over Hartford at 7 pm et on Wednesday. These teams may be heading in opposite directions from an ATS perspective, with Hartford having gone 5-1 ATS over its last six games and New Hampshire managing just one ATS victory in its last seven, but I look for the Wildcats to right the ship and deliver a convincing victory on Wednesday. This is a rematch from a game played in Hartford back on January 19th. The Hawks prevailed by double-digits in that game, turning in a near-perfect offensive performance, shooting better than 52% from the field while turning the ball over just six times. Since then, Hartford has only managed to split its last four games but does come into this one off a 12-point victory at lowly Maine - its second consecutive win. New Hampshire has been alternating wins and losses over its last nine games and checks in off a seven-point home loss but that came against one of America East's elite teams in Stony Brook. Consecutive games against Hartford and Maryland-Baltimore County will give the Wildcats a chance to gain some traction in the conference before a return date against Stony Brook next week. They've certainly had this home game against the Hawks circled since that earlier loss in Hartford. UNH didn't bring its 'A' game on that night, shooting a miserable 37% from the field. The shots simply weren't falling but I expect a different story to unfold here in New Hampshire on Wednesday. Credit the Wildcats for managing to shoot just shy of 47% in that most recent loss to Stony Brook. It undoubtedly catches Hartford in a letdown spot here after the Hawks shot a blistering 60% from the field against a weak Maine squad last time out. Take New Hampshire (10*). |
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02-01-22 | Warriors v. Spurs +2.5 | Top | 124-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Spurs essentially 'punted' Sunday's game in Phoenix, sitting Jakob Poeltl, Dejounte Murray and Derrick White, yet still managed to give the Suns a serious run in an eventual five-point loss. Here, the shoe is on the other foot, with the Warriors in a back-to-back spot off a double-digit win in Houston. Klay Thompson won't play on Tuesday. The Warriors have played at least every other day since January 9th so it's obviously been a bit of a grueling schedule. As much as they would like to get some revenge for an earlier home loss against the Spurs, I'm not convinced we'll see them go 'flat out' in this one. While the Spurs are just 10-16 at home this season, they've actually outscored their opponents by 0.7 points on average. Having faced the Grizzlies, Bulls and Suns over their last three games, the Spurs are certainly battle-tested heading into this one. I look for them to give the Warriors all they can handle on Tuesday. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-24-22 | Pacers +12.5 v. Grizzlies | 103-133 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
03-24-22 | Arkansas +9.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
03-23-22 | 76ers -7 v. Lakers | Top | 126-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
03-23-22 | Washington State v. BYU -3 | Top | 77-58 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
03-23-22 | Devils v. Maple Leafs -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -121 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
03-21-22 | Northern Colorado v. North Carolina-Asheville +1.5 | Top | 87-84 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
03-20-22 | Miami-FL +7.5 v. Auburn | Top | 79-61 | Win | 100 | 35 h 25 m | Show |
03-20-22 | Stars +1.5 v. Capitals | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
03-19-22 | Lakers v. Wizards -1.5 | 119-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
03-18-22 | Clippers +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 92-121 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
03-18-22 | Chattanooga +8 v. Illinois | Top | 53-54 | Win | 100 | 53 h 1 m | Show |
03-17-22 | Vermont +5.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 80 h 18 m | Show |
03-17-22 | Norfolk State +21.5 v. Baylor | 49-85 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 19 m | Show | |
03-16-22 | Iona +7 v. Florida | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 58 h 34 m | Show |
03-15-22 | Nets -9.5 v. Magic | Top | 150-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
03-14-22 | Raptors -4 v. Lakers | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
03-14-22 | Blazers +14 v. Hawks | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
03-12-22 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Southeastern Louisiana | 73-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
03-12-22 | Bucks v. Warriors +1.5 | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
03-12-22 | San Diego State -2 v. Boise State | Top | 52-53 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
03-11-22 | Wizards +4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 109-122 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
03-11-22 | Richmond v. VCU -2.5 | Top | 75-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
03-11-22 | Quinnipiac v. St. Peter's -6.5 | Top | 52-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
03-11-22 | Wolves -7.5 v. Magic | 110-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
03-11-22 | Creighton v. Providence -3 | 85-58 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
03-10-22 | South Florida +9.5 v. UCF | Top | 58-60 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
03-09-22 | Georgetown v. Seton Hall -10 | Top | 53-57 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
03-09-22 | Magic v. Pelicans -8.5 | Top | 108-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
03-09-22 | Hartford v. Maryland-Baltimore County -3.5 | Top | 60-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
03-08-22 | Clippers v. Warriors -6.5 | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
03-08-22 | Marshall -3.5 v. Florida International | 74-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
03-08-22 | Nets -4.5 v. Hornets | Top | 132-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
03-08-22 | Boston College -1.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 66-46 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
03-07-22 | Northern Kentucky -1.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 57-43 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
03-07-22 | Lakers v. Spurs -4.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
03-06-22 | Tulane +9.5 v. SMU | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
03-06-22 | South Florida +8.5 v. Temple | Top | 47-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
03-02-22 | Duquesne v. George Washington -7.5 | 93-98 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
03-01-22 | Bruins v. Ducks +1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
03-01-22 | Clippers v. Rockets +7 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
03-01-22 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Jets | 4-8 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
02-28-22 | UCLA -8 v. Washington | 77-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
02-28-22 | Bruins v. Kings +1.5 | 7-0 | Loss | -197 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
02-28-22 | New Mexico v. Fresno State -10 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
02-28-22 | Massachusetts v. Fordham -2 | Top | 73-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
02-26-22 | Bruins v. Sharks +1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
02-26-22 | South Dakota State v. UMKC +7.5 | Top | 86-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
02-26-22 | Lightning v. Predators +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
02-26-22 | San Francisco -13 v. San Diego | Top | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
02-26-22 | Northern Illinois +17 v. Buffalo | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
02-26-22 | Arminia Bielefeld +1.5 v. Bayer Leverkusen | 0-3 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
02-25-22 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
02-24-22 | Islanders v. Sharks +1.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
02-24-22 | Bruins v. Seattle Kraken +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
02-24-22 | Celtics v. Nets +8 | 129-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
02-24-22 | Blue Jackets v. Panthers -1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -150 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
02-24-22 | Sheriff +1.25 v. Sporting Braga | 0-2 | Loss | -112 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
02-23-22 | Cardiff City +0.5 v. Huddersfield Town | 1-2 | Loss | -150 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
02-22-22 | Sharks +1.5 v. Ducks | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
02-22-22 | Kansas State +12.5 v. Kansas | Top | 83-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
02-22-22 | Lille OSC +1.5 v. Chelsea | 0-2 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
02-20-22 | Stars v. Coyotes +1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
02-20-22 | RB Leipzig v. Hertha Berlin +1 | 6-1 | Loss | -101 | 16 h 0 m | Show | |
02-20-22 | Providence -3 v. Butler | 71-70 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
02-19-22 | Stetson v. Liberty -15 | 82-88 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
02-19-22 | SIU-Edwardsville v. Belmont -21.5 | 62-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
02-19-22 | Ball State v. Bowling Green -3 | Top | 91-82 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
02-19-22 | Houston Baptist v. Nicholls State -12 | 70-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
02-18-22 | Kings +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
02-18-22 | Predators +1.5 v. Hurricanes | 3-5 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
02-18-22 | Metz +1.5 v. Lille OSC | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
02-17-22 | Canucks v. Sharks +1.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
02-17-22 | Blue Jackets +1.5 v. Blackhawks | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 31 h 40 m | Show | |
02-17-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Borussia Dortmund | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
02-17-22 | Napoli +0.5 v. Barcelona FC | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
02-16-22 | Boise State v. Air Force +10.5 | 85-59 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
02-15-22 | Villanova v. Providence +4.5 | 89-84 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
02-15-22 | Celtics v. 76ers +1.5 | Top | 135-87 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
02-13-22 | Rams v. Bengals +4.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 80 h 14 m | Show |
02-13-22 | Arminia Bielefeld +1 v. Hoffenheim | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
02-12-22 | Clippers +7 v. Mavs | Top | 99-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
02-12-22 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH -1 | 78-94 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
02-12-22 | Sacred Heart -1.5 v. Fairleigh Dickinson | Top | 75-82 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
02-10-22 | Bucks +4 v. Suns | Top | 107-131 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
02-10-22 | Clippers +7 v. Mavs | 105-112 | Push | 0 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
02-10-22 | Hofstra v. Drexel -1 | Top | 83-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
02-09-22 | Warriors v. Jazz -3 | Top | 85-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
02-06-22 | Pacers +5.5 v. Cavs | Top | 85-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
02-06-22 | Washington v. Stanford -4.5 | 69-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
02-06-22 | Akron v. Miami-OH +3.5 | 71-59 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
02-06-22 | Pistons +12 v. Wolves | 105-118 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
02-06-22 | Wisc-Milwaukee +10.5 v. Cleveland State | 71-84 | Loss | -111 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
02-06-22 | Marist +4.5 v. St. Peter's | 50-66 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
02-06-22 | Green Bay +10 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | 55-71 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
02-06-22 | Providence v. Georgetown +7 | Top | 71-52 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
02-05-22 | Western Illinois v. UMKC | 82-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
02-03-22 | Wolves v. Pistons +7.5 | 128-117 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
02-02-22 | Wizards v. 76ers -10 | Top | 106-103 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
02-02-22 | Hartford v. New Hampshire -4.5 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
02-01-22 | Warriors v. Spurs +2.5 | Top | 124-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |