01-14-22 |
Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
99-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (507) and the Philadelphia 76ers (508). THE SITUATION: Boston (21-21) has won three games in a row after their 119-100 upset win at Indiana as a 1.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Philadelphia (23-17) had their seven-game winning streak end with their 109-98 upset loss to Charlotte as a 5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston made 51.3% of their shots in the upset win against the Pacers which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. The Celtics have been a disappointment on the offensive end of the court this season. They rank just 23rd in the league in Offensive Rating. Too often, Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown settle for isolation basketball rather than getting a better rhythm to their offense to generate better shots. Rookie head coach Ime Udoka has not offered much schematically to correct these issues either. The Celtics did allow Indiana to make 46.5% of their shots on Wednesday which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. Boston has been outstanding on the defensive end this season — they rank 5th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. Even after Wednesday’s game, the Celtics have held their last five opponents to 96.0 Points-Per-Game on 42.8% shooting. The Under is 33-15-1 in Boston’s last 49 games after a double-digit victory — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. The Celtics have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. They have also played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia allowed the Hornets to make 51.7% of their shots in the loss on Wednesday. The 76ers still rank 3rd in the league in their last ten games in Defensive Efficiency. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. The Under is also 7-2-1 in Philadelphia’s last 10 games after a point spread loss. The Sixers are just 8-9 this season on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home. The 76ers have also played 22 of their last 32 home games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road (Boston: 8-13 on the road) — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers are missing some players including Danny Green and Shake Milton. Marcus Smart is questionable for the Celtics. The Sixers pulled the upset against Boston on December 20th with their 108-103 victory — and Boston has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when motivated by revenge. The Celtics have also played 33 of their last 51 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge an upset loss. These two teams have played 8 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Philadelphia. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (507) and the Philadelphia 76ers (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-22 |
Indiana v. Iowa -4.5 |
Top |
74-83 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (840) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (839). THE SITUATION: Iowa (11-4) had their four-game winning streak snapped with an 87-78 loss at Wisconsin as a 3.5-point underdog last Thursday. Indiana (12-3) won their fifth game in their last six with their 73-60 victory against Minnesota as an 11.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa allowed the Badgers to make 50.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. The Hawkeyes should bounce back tonight as they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a loss on the road. And while Iowa has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games including the last four of these circumstances. The Hawkeyes are an outstanding offensive team that ranks third in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They make the most of their scoring opportunities as they lead the nation with the lowest turnover rate in the nation. Iowa also leads the nation with the lowest block rate in the country — and that is a great attribute to have when facing the Hoosiers’ Trayce Jackson-Davis who blocks 10.5% of the shots in his direction this season. Iowa returns home where they are 9-1 with an average winning margin of +24.2 net Points-Per-Game. The Hawkeyes made 49.5% of his shots at home which generates 93.1 PPG. They also hold their opponents to just 68.8 PPG on 40.8% shooting. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they are 15-6-3 ATS in their last 24 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win against a Big Ten opponent. The Hoosiers preceded their victory against the Golden Gophers with a 67-51 win at home against Ohio State — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row against conference foes. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games after winning two straight games by double-digits against conference opponents. Indiana is too loose with the basketball — they turn the ball over in 19.5% of their possessions, ranking 209th in the nation. The Hawkeyes do force turnovers — their opponents turn the ball over in 20.0% of their possessions, ranking 107th in the country. Now the Hoosiers go back on the road for just the fifth time in a true road game. They have lost three of those four games while making just 44.7% of their shots. Indiana is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 60% on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: The Hoosiers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored. 25* CBB Thursday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (840) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (839). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-12-22 |
Southern Illinois v. Missouri State UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
76-81 |
Loss |
-108 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Southern Illinois Salukis (725) and the Missouri State Bears (726). THE SITUATION: Southern Illinois (9-5) has won four of their last five games after their 63-60 upset win at Valparaiso as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday. Missouri State (11-6) and their three-game winning streak end with an 85-84 upset loss at Northern Iowa as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a strong technical situation for the Under. The Salukis have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Southern Illinois nailed 55.6% of their shots from the field in that game — but they are still only making 43.1% of their shots on the road. The Salukis score just 59.7 Points-Per-Game on the road — but they allow only 62.7 PPG in those eight games. Southern Illinois has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog. The Salukis have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Missouri State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Bears have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Missouri State allowed the Panthers to make 51.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Bears are second in the Missouri Valley Conference so far this season by holding their conference opponents to just 50.0% shooting inside the arc after four games. They return home where they have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: Southern Illinois has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Missouri State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against winning teams. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Southern Illinois Salukis (725) and the Missouri State Bears (726). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-11-22 |
Ball State v. Akron -8.5 |
|
74-84 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Akron Zips (640) minus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (639). THE SITUATION: Akron (8-4) had their six-game winning streak snapped with a 69-63 upset loss to Ohio as a 1.5-point favorite last Tuesday. Ball State (7-7) has won three of their last four games with their 78-72 upset win at Eastern Michigan as a 1-point underdog on January 8th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ZIPS MINUS THE POINTS: Akron should rebound with a strong effort. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset loss. The Zips have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss to a Mid-American Conference opponent. They only made 9 of 17 (52.9%) of their free throws against the Bobcats — but they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after not making at least 53% of their free throws in their last game. Head coach John Groce’s team is not a great shooting team from the charity stripe — they make only 65.4% of their free throws. But Akron is third in the nation in free throw rate with a free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 44.7%. They should be living at the free-throw line tonight against this Cardinals team that ranks 293rd in the nation in opponent free throw rate. This team is talented — they lost by just one point, 67-66, at Ohio State to begin their season. They stay at home where they are 5-1 with an average winning margin of +14.7 Points-Per-Game. They score a healthy 82.2 PPG at home. The Zips have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games teams with a losing record on the road. Akron has also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games with the Total set in the 140s. Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after winning four or five of their last six games. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after covering the point spread in at least two in a row. Ball State stays on the road where they are just 2-6 this season with an average losing margin of -13.3 PPG. They only make 42.2% of their shots on the road — and they are allowing their home hosts to score 84.0 PPG on 47.6% shooting. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Akron Zips (640) minus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (639). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-09-22 |
Pelicans v. Raptors OVER 222 |
|
101-105 |
Loss |
-103 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (14-25) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 101-96 win against Golden State as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Toronto (19-17) is on a five-game winning streak after their 122-108 win against Utah as a 12-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans played their best defensive game in their last four contests after holding the Warriors to just 42.5% shooting. New Orleans has allowed at least 115 points in four of their last six games. They are giving up 114.8 Points-Per-Game on 48.1% shooting over their last five games. The Pelicans have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, New Orleans has played 4 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total in January. Toronto has scored at least 116 points in five straight games — they are averaging 120.5 PPG over that stretch. They have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight Overs after a win by 10 or more points. The Raptors have also played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They stay at home where they have played 7 straight games Over the Total. Toronto has also played 8 straight Overs at home when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in Toronto. 10* NBA Over/Under Situational Special with Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-07-22 |
Brown +3.5 v. Harvard |
Top |
84-73 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Brown Bears (879) plus the points versus the Harvard Crimson (880). THE SITUATION: Brown (8-8) has lost four games in a row after their 77-73 upset loss to Pennsylvania as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Harvard (8-4) is on a three-game winning streak after their 77-69 win against Howard as a 7-point favorite back on December 21st.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Harvard has had their last three scheduled games postponed because of COVID issues. They face rust concerns taking the court for the first time in almost three weeks. As it is, the Crimson have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Harvard plays their fourth straight game at home but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning their last two games on their home court. This is the Ivy League debut for the Crimson who have played a pretty light schedule that ranks 303rd most difficult according to the metrics at kenpom. They are making only 40.7% of their shots in their last five games — and they have a 43.3% field goal percentage in their seven home games. Harvard has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Crimson will not have the advantage of cheering fans either given the restriction of fans attending games given COVID regulations. Head coach Tommy Amaker recruits well for this team — but Brown head coach Mike Martin has followed his lead by bringing long and athletic talent to his program which makes this team stand out in the league. Led by the reigning Defensive Player of the Year (when the Ivy last played in 2019-20) in Jaylen Gainey who protects the rim down low, the Bears ranks 117th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. That defensive ranking is more impressive considering that Brown ranks 110th in strength of schedule at kenpom. The Bears have beaten Bradley on a neutral court while losing to North Carolina by just a 94-87 score (with the score tied going into the final ten minutes of the game) and losing to Colorado by just two points. Brown has also played Creighton, Maryland, Syracuse, and Vermont — this is a battle-tested group. They were without their top playmaker, Tamenang Cho in four early games including the narrow loss in Chapel Hill. Having played three times since Christmas, Martin’s team is in midseason form. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing four of their last five games. And while they have played seven straight Overs, they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 road games after playing at least two straight Overs. Brown is 4-6 on the road this season — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Brown swept the two regular-season games against Harvard in 2019 before the season got canceled because of COVID. The Bears have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Harvard has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against Ivy League opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Brown Bears (879) plus the points versus the Harvard Crimson (880). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-06-22 |
Texas-Arlington v. Georgia State -7.5 |
Top |
70-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (760) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (759). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (6-5) has lost four of their last six games after their 72-62 loss to Georgia Tech in overtime as a 5-point underdog on December 21st. UT-Arlington (6-7) won their third straight game with their 62-57 victory against Troy as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia State made only 28.2% of their shots against the Yellow Jackets which was the worst shooting effort of the season. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. And while the Panthers got outrebounded by a 51-33 margin, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after getting outrebounded by at least 15 boards in their last game. Georgia State returns all five starters from the group that lost in the Sun Belt Conference tournament championship game last season. COVID has slowed this team down so far this season but they are mostly healthy now in making their conference debut tonight. They are 4-0 at home where they are outscoring their opponents by a whopping +39.0 net Points-Per-Game. The Panthers make 48.9% of their shots at home which is generating 88.0 PPG — and they are holding their opponents just 33.8% shooting and 49.0 PPG. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. The Panthers are 25th in the nation by making 38.0% of their 3-point shots — and they nail 39.4% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. UT-Arlington is 250th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 34.8% of their shots from behind the arc — and they rank 272nd in the nation with their opponents making 37.0% of their shots from 3-point range when playing away from home. The Mavericks played their second-best defensive game of the season by holding the Trojans to 30.0% shooting — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after holding their last opponent to no better than 33% shooting. UT-Arlington has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning three of their last four games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when playing their second game in a seven-day span. They go back on the road for the first time since December 19th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games after playing their last three games on the road. The Mavericks are just 1-6 on the road where they are scoring only 55.1 PPG on 37.3% shooting. They are getting outscored by -16.8 PPG on the road. UT-Arlington has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia State should force plenty of turnovers tonight — they rank 46th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.0% of their opponent’s possessions. UT-Arlington is 324th in the nation by turning the ball over in 22.5% of their possessions — and they have turned it over in 23.1% of their possessions on the road. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month with the Georgia State Panthers (760) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (759). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-22 |
Pistons v. Hornets -10 |
|
111-140 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (534) minus the points versus the Detroit (533). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (19-19) has lost two straight games after their 124-121 loss at Washington as a 1.5-point underdog on Monday. Detroit (7-28) has won two straight games after their 115-106 upset win at Milwaukee as a 16-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS MINUS THE POINTS: Charlotte should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. They return home where they are 9-5 this season with a 116.0 Points-Per-Game scoring average from a 47.8% field goal percentage. The Hornets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. Charlotte is also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games when favored. And in their last 52 games against teams who are not winning at least 40% of their games, the Hornets are 38-13-1 ATS. Detroit has pulled off two straight upset wins as they stunned San Antonio at home by a 117-116 score as a 7-point underdog on Saturday. But the Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against a Central Division rival. Additionally, Detroit has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 18 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. They stay on the road for the fifth time in their last seven games where they have just a 3-15 record. They are allowing their home hosts to score 112.5 PPG on 48.2% shooting — and they are getting outscored by -11.4 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Pistons are missing several players. Jeramy Grant is out indefinitely with a thumb injury and Isaiah Livers is out with a foot injury. Isaiah Stewart and Cory Joseph will not play as they rebuild their conditioning after testing positive for COVID. Charlotte is pretty healthy with point guard P.J. Washington upgraded to probable in his return from COVID. Vernon Carey is out as he works on his conditioning and Scottie Lewis is questionable to return. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against the Hornets — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Charlotte. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Charlotte Hornets (534) minus the points versus the Detroit (533). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-22 |
Nebraska v. Michigan State OVER 148.5 |
Top |
67-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (681) and the Michigan State Spartans (682). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (6-8) has lost six of their last seven games after their 87-79 loss in overtime against Ohio State as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday. Michigan State (12-2) won their seventh straight game with a 73-67 win at Northwestern as a 3-point favorite on January 2nd.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cornhuskers have allowed at least 70 points in nine of their fourteen games this season — and they play at the 9th fastest possession length in the nation so they are comfortable playing higher-scoring games under head coach Fred Hoiberg. Nebraska has played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. The Cornhuskers are one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation although much of that is by design since Hoiberg wants to sacrifice defensive rebounding for potential fast break scoring chances. They have been out-rebounded by at least eight boards per game in their last three contests — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after being out-rebounded by at least six boards in three straight games. They rank 302nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 32.5% of their misses on the offensive — and now they travel to East Lansing to face a Spartans’ team that is 47th in the nation by rebounding 33.8% of their missed shots. Nebraska has allowed their last five opponents to make 46.6% of their shots which has resulted in 85.8 Points-Per-Game. Now the Cornhuskers go back on the road where they are allowing 90.3 PPG. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Nebraska has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the Total in the 140s. Michigan State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread victory. The Spartans held Northwestern to just 32.3% shooting from the field which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games. But Michigan State only made 38.5% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the lowest mark in their last eight games and the second-lowest field goal percentage all season. Even after that shooting effort, the Spartans have shot 48.6% from the field in their last five games. They rank 15th in the nation by making 38.9% of their shots from behind the arc — and they are making 40% of their 3-pointers in their three Big Ten games. They should make plenty of 3s against this Cornhuskers defense that ranks 281st in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 35.0% of their 3-pointers — and they are allowing their Big Ten foes to nail 44.3% of their shots from downtown. Five-star freshman Max Christie is finding a rhythm having scored in double-digits in four of his last six games. And head coach Tom Izzo has found an answer at point guard by splitting time between Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard. They return home to the Breslin Center where they are scoring 81.3 PPG on 47.0% shooting. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Spartans’ last 4 games at home — and they have played 4 straight Overs at home against teams with a losing record on the road. The Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams score at least 75 PPG. Michigan State has played 9 of their last 14 home games Over the Total when favored by at least 12.5 points. Nebraska has played 30 of their last 45 road games — and 10 of their last 15 road games — Over the Total when an underdog in the 12.5 to 18 point range. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (681) and the Michigan State Spartans (682). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-04-22 |
Pacers v. Knicks UNDER 207.5 |
|
94-104 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (525) and the New York Knicks (526). THE SITUATION: Indiana (14-23) has lost four in a row after their 108-104 loss at Cleveland as a 4.5-point underdog on January 2nd. New York (17-20) has lost two in a row after their 120-105 loss at Toronto as an 8-point underdog on January 2nd.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pacers only made 44% of their shots against the Cavaliers — and that was still the best shooting performance in their last four contests. Indiana stays on the road where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total. The Pacers have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Indiana has played 4 straight Unders against teams with a losing record — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog. New York shot 44.9% from the field against the Raptors which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. And while Toronto made 47.7% of their shots against them on Sunday, that was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in the last five games that Tom Thibodeau’s team has allowed. The Knicks have played 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. New York has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They return home where they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total when favored. And in their last 15 games against teams with a losing record, the Knicks have played 11 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total — and these teams have played 9 of their last 13 encounters in Madison Square Garden Under the Total. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (525) and the New York Knicks (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-04-22 |
Kentucky v. LSU -2 |
Top |
60-65 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (622) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (621). THE SITUATION: LSU (12-1) lost their first game of the season in a 70-55 loss at Auburn as a 4.5-point underdog on December 22nd. Kentucky (11-2) has won four games in a row with their 92-48 victory against High Point as a 27-point favorite on December 31st.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: LSU should respond with a strong effort as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with five or six days of rest. The Tigers played their worst game of the season against Auburn. Their 28.6% shooting percentage was the lowest of the season for them — and the 43.4% mark they allowed those Tigers to hit was actually their worst defensive effort of the year. LSU is the top-rated team in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at KenPom. They return home where they are 8-0 this season with an average winning margin of +32.7 Points-Per-Game. They score 84.6 PPG on 49.4% shooting from the field. They hold their guests to 32.1% shooting and just 51.9 PPG. They are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games at home — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games when favored. The Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Kentucky shot 59.1% from the field against High Point which was the best shooting mark for them all season. And the 31.1% shooting they allowed was also the best defensive mark for them all year. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Kentucky has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after winning at least three games in a row. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Wildcats play their first road game away from home since December 11th. Kentucky is just 1-2 away from home this season — and they allow teams not playing in their Rupp Arena to make 47.1% of their shots. The Wildcats are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Kentucky does not get to the free-throw line either — they rank 320nd in the nation in free throw rate. Not getting freebies against a team that is so good on defense will be tough.
FINAL TAKE: LSU has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Game of the Month with the LSU Tigers (622) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (621). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-21 |
Warriors v. Suns -5.5 |
Top |
116-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 5:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (590) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (589). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (26-5) has won five straight games after their 113-101 victory against Oklahoma City as a 15-point favorite on Thursday. Golden State (26-6) has won five of their last six games after their 113-104 victory against Memphis as a 5.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix won five of their seven games played without Devin Booker who was out with an injury. Booker returned to the court three games ago in a 137-106 victory against Charlotte on Sunday before the Suns beat the Lakers in Los Angeles by a 108-90 score on Tuesday. Booker scored 30 points on Thursday against the Thunder. Phoenix is 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after winning at least two games in a row by 10 or more points. The Suns stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Phoenix has built off their NBA Finals run by consistently playing tough on the defensive end of the court. They are second in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last five opponents to just 100.4 Points-Per-Game on 40.6% shooting from the field. The Suns will be without Frank Kaminsky and Abdel Nader to injury — but it is the Warriors who are more depleted by positive COVID tests right now. Golden State will be without Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins, and Damion Lee who are all in quarantine. Poole and Wiggins are playing important supporting roles for this team. Andre Iguodala is questionable as well with a knee injury — and if he does not play, they are missing players on the wing. The Warriors come off their best defensive effort in their last four games on Thursday after holding the Grizzlies to just 42.2% shooting. Golden State is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win. The Warriors go back on the road where they have lost four of their six games. They are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix held Stephen Curry to just 4 of 21 shooting in the first meeting between these two teams that they won by a 104-96 score on November 30th. The Suns the rematch on December 3rd by a 118-96 score without Booker with his injury earlier this month. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 7 straight games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games when avenging a loss by double-digits. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Television Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (590) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (589). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-22-21 |
Arizona v. Tennessee |
Top |
73-77 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (752) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Wildcats (751). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (8-2) has won two in a row after their 96-52 victory against USC Upstate as a 35.5-point favorite on December 14th. Arizona (11-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 84-60 victory against Cal-Baptist as a 28-point favorite on December 18th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on their home court — and they are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games after a win by 20 or more points. This is an outstanding defensive team that ranks second in the nation at kenpom in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last four opponents to 36.8% or lower shooting from the field. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after not allowing their two opponents to make no better than 37% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing their last three opponents to make more than 37% of their shots. They have generated 15 and 13 steals in each of their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 20 home games after registering double-digit steals in two straight games. The Volunteers are 6-0 on their home court with an average winning margin of +32.8 net Points-Per-Game average margin of victory. The conventional wisdom regarding Tennessee is that they struggle against elite defenses. But their two losses this season to Villanova and Texas Tech in overtime were both on neutral courts. They have also beaten North Carolina on a neutral court and Colorado in Boulder. Back home in Knoxville, the Volunteers make 49.1% of their shots and score 87.0 PPG. They also make 41.7% of their shots from 3-point range at home as compared to their 23.2% shooting clip from behind the arc when on the road. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored overall. Arizona held Cal-Baptist to just 33.3% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game at home where they won but did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Additionally, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least eight games in their last ten contests — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after winning at least three straight games. The Wildcats have beaten Illinois on the road in Champagne and Michigan on a neutral court in Las Vegas — but they needed overtime to defeat Wichita State in that same tournament in Vegas the night before beating the Wolverines. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games as an underdog getting up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: It has been a surprising start for first-year head coach Tommy Lloyd — but this will be the biggest test for the former Gonzaga assistant who has brought in several transfer players to Tuscon to form an interesting squad. The Wildcats are just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in December. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Tennessee Volunteers (752) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Wildcats (751). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-17-21 |
Spurs +11.5 v. Jazz |
|
128-126 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (567) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (568). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (10-17) has lost two of their last three games with their 131-115 upset loss to Charlotte as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Utah (20-7) has won eight in a row after their 124-103 win against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 9.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio allowed the Hornets to make 59.3% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the worst defensive effort of the season. Head coach Gregg Popovich should have his team tighten things up on that end of the court. The Spurs hold their home hosts to 45.0% shooting which is resulting in only 104.2 Points-Per-Game. San Antonio is 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. The Spurs are also 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 road games with the Total set in the 220s. San Antonio has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Spurs are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Utah shot 52.8% from the field against the Clippers on Wednesday after making 51.6% of their shots against Washington. The Jazz have also made at least 47.3% of their shots in four straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after shooting at least 47% in four straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight contests. Utah stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Jazz have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: The Spurs are in pretty good health with Lonnie Walker IV questionable with an illness (but no sign of a COVID outbreak on the team). San Antonio has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Utah has been lukewarm when laying double-digits — they have 19-20 ATS in their last 39 games when laying 10 or more points including 4-5 ATS this season. 10* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the San Antonio Spurs (567) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-15-21 |
Wolves v. Nuggets OVER 223.5 |
Top |
124-107 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (541) and the Denver Nuggets (542). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (12-15) snapped their five-game losing streak with a 116-111 upset win at Portland as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Denver (14-13) has won three of their last four games with their 113-107 win against Washington as a 4-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves have played 27 of their last 37 road games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. The 111 points they allowed to the Trail Blazers was their lowest in their last four games. Minnesota has let their last five opponents make 49.6% of their shots which has translated into 120.2 PPG. Now the T-Wolves stay on the road where they are scoring 111.1 PPG while allowing 113.9 PPG. Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have played 18 of their last 25 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting up to six points. D’Angelo Russell is questionable tonight with an ankle injury. Denver will be without JaMychal Green who is also dealing with an ankle — but Aaron Gordon and Will Barton have been upgraded to probable. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Denver has also played 11 straight Overs after allowing at least 100 points. They are scoring 113.6 PPG in their last five games — but they are surrendering 113.0 PPG on 48.7% shooting in those five games as well. The 45.6% shooting they held the Wizards to on Monday was the best defensive effort in their last four games. But the Nuggets are now playing their sixth game in the last ten days — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing at least their sixth game in ten days. Denver has played four straight Unders — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight Overs when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total in December going back to last season. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (541) and the Denver Nuggets (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-11-21 |
Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 218.5 |
|
127-112 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (563) and the San Antonio Spurs (564). THE SITUATION: Denver (12-13) has lost two of their last three games after a 123-111 setback on the road against the Spurs on Thursday as a 2-point underdog. San Antonio (9-15) has now won five of their last seven games with the victory two days ago.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets allowed the Spurs to make 52.3% of their shots on Thursday. Denver has allowed eight of their last twelve opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Denver allowed New Orleans to make 52.2% of their shots in their previous game on Wednesday — and they have played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Additionally, the Over is 25-9-1 in the Pelicans’ last 35 games after a double-digit loss — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Nuggets allow their home hosts to score 110.4 Points-Per-Game on 48.1% shooting when on the road this season. That helps explain why they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total. Denver has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. On the positive side, the Nuggets are scoring 108.8 PPG in their last five games — more than 4 PPG above their season average. San Antonio has played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. The Spurs score 114.1 PPG on their home court while making 48.5% of their shots. San Antonio has played 20 of their last 27 home games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total as an underdog. And while Denver is 5-9 on the road, the Spurs have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 6 straight Overs when playing in San Antonio. 10* NBA Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (563) and the San Antonio Spurs (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-11-21 |
Jazz v. Wizards +7.5 |
|
123-98 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Wizards (554) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (553). THE SITUATION: Washington (15-11) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 119-116 win at Detroit as a 5-point favorite on Wednesday. Utah (18-7) has won six games in a row after their 118-96 loss at Philadelphia as a 3-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WIZARDS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road. Despite that triumph, the Wizards have not covered the point spread in four straight games. Washington has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after not covering the point spread in at least two in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games. They return home for an important home game since it is their only contest in front of their home fans in a ten-game stretch. The Wizards have played their three previous games on the road — and they will then play their next six games on the road before finally getting another home game on December 26th. Washington has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home as an underdog. The Wizards have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Washington is undermanned with Thomas Bryant and Kyle Kuzma out for this game — but depth is a strength for this team under rookie head coach Wes Unseld, Jr. They face a Utah team that may be ripe for a letdown after their last two games by 32 and 22 points. The Jazz have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after winning their last two games by double-digits. This is Utah’s third game on the road since Wednesday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when playing their third game in four days on the road. The Jazz finish a four-game road trip tonight — and they are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home (Washington: 8-3 at home).
FINAL TAKE: Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Wizards. 10* NBA Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Washington Wizards (554) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-11-21 |
Mississippi State v. Colorado State |
Top |
63-66 |
Loss |
-116 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (625) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Colorado State Rams (626). THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (6-2) had their two-game winning streak end in an 81-76 upset loss to Minnesota as an 11.5-point favorite on Sunday. Colorado State (9-0) remained undefeated this season after their 74-58 win against Saint Mary’s as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Mississippi State probably played their worst game of the season against the Golden Gophers. Their 43.7% shooting percentage was the second-lowest of the year — and the 49.2% shooting mark by Minnesota was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage this season. Head coach Ben Howland should have his team prepared for this contest. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by six points or less. Mississippi State has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss. The Bulldogs have not covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. This team should play well on a neutral court — they pull down 37.6% of their missed shots, ranking 12th best in the nation. Colorado State comes off their biggest win of the season in what was their second straight victory by double-digits. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. And while Colorado State has covered the points spread in two straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Rams lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 61.3% fueled by them nailing 44.0% of their shots from behind the arc, the best 3-point shooting percentage in the country. But seven of Colorado State’s nine games have been at home. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Rams go back on the road for just the third time this season. Colorado State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their three previous games at home. The Rams have seen their 3-point shooting drop to 40.3% away from home — and now they face this Bulldogs team that holds their opponents to just 31.9% shooting from 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado State is vulnerable on defense as they rank 104th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on a neutral court as an underdog. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, Colorado State is 2-5-1 ATS. 25* CBB ESPNU Game of the Month with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (625) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Colorado State Rams (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-08-21 |
Celtics +3.5 v. Clippers |
|
111-114 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 10:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (525) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (526). THE SITUATION: Boston (13-12) has lost two of their last three games after their 117-102 loss in Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 4-point underdog last night. Los Angeles (13-12) has won two of their last three games with their 102-90 victory as a 3-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS PLUS THE POINTS: Boston allowed the Lakers to make 51.6% of their shots last night in what was the second-worst defensive effort in their last 15 games. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Boston has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road after a loss by 10 or more points in their last game. The Celtics play without rest tonight but it was not a travel day with this game being played at Crypto.com Arena (formerly the Staples Center). As it is, Boston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing without rest. The Lakers also out-rebounded them by a 51 to 34 margin on the boards — but the Celtics have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after being out-rebounded by -15 or more rebounds in their last game. Boston has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. The Clippers return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored. Furthermore, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, the Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: Boston will be without Jaylen Brown tonight as he recovers from a hamstring injury but Jayson Tatum and company will still take the court. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. And in their last 4 meetings with the Clippers, Boston has covered the point spread all 4 times. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Boston Celtics (525) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-08-21 |
Marquette +2 v. Kansas State |
Top |
64-63 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Marquette Golden Eagles (711) plus the point(s) versus the Kansas State (712). Marquette (7-2) looks to rebound from an 89-76 loss at Wisconsin as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas State (5-2) comes off a 65-59 upset win at Wichita State as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN EAGLES PLUS THE POINT(S): Marquette allowed the Badgers to make 50.8% of their shots on Saturday in what was their worst defensive performance of the season. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 road games after a double-digit loss on the road. Marquette has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after a game where both teams scored at least 75 points. The Golden Eagles have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. First-year head coach Shaka Smart has this team playing like his “Havoc” teams at Virginia Commonwealth at a rapid pace and with a full-court 1-2-2 pressing zone. The Eagles lead the nation by averaging only 14.8 seconds per possession. Smart did not inherit a returning starter from last season — under 20% of the production from last year returned. But he did bring in Darryl Morsell from Maryland after he won the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Award last season. Smart’s Havoc tactics help to compensate for the lack of experience. Marquette has already pulled off upset victories against Illinois, West Virginia, and Mississippi. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. Smart’s teams are 41-23-1 ATS in his last 65 road games as an underdog — and his teams have covered the point spread in eight of their last eleven games on the road as an underdog going back to last season with Texas. Kansas State appears to be without their leading scorer Nigel Pack who is in the concussion protocol. He is scoring 15.8 Points-Per-Game while nailing 49.6% of their shots from 3-point range. Pack did not play in their upset win against the Shockers - but they only made 33.9% of their shots in the win. The Wildcats hosts this game at Bramage Coliseum — but the home fans are not quite as rowdy in non-conference games in December as they will be once the Big 12 schedule begins. As it is, Kansas State is just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games at home. Furthermore, the Wildcats are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 home games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when laying up to six points. Kansas State has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Marquette should have an edge at the charity stripe tonight. The Golden Eagles rank 15th in the nation in free throw rate — and Kansas State is 227th in defensive free throw rate in putting their opponent on the line. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Marquette Golden Eagles (711) plus the point(s) versus the Kansas State (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-02-21 |
Spurs v. Blazers -4.5 |
|
114-83 |
Loss |
-106 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
|
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 12/2:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut on Thursday was with the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs. Portland (11-11) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 110-92 win against Detroit as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Trail Blazers are now 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games when favored. Portland has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. San Antonio (6-13) has won two games in a row after their 116-99 win against Washington on Monday. The Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win by 10 or more points. San Antonio has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games as an underdog. The Trail Blazers are without Damian Lillard indefinitely with an abdominal injury but they should still pull away from a rebuilding Spurs team tonight. Lay the points with Portland. Best of luck — Frank.
Frank Sawyer CA$HED their NBA play on Washington last night to further his 34 of 56 (61%) All-Sports run over the last 21 days! Frank is also on a 16 of 23 (70%) NFL run — and he furthers his 12 of 18 (67%) NFL Prime-Time run with tonight’s Cowboys-Saints’ ATS winner on Fox-TV at 8:20 PM ET! Frank also tests his 9 of 10 (90%) NFL TOTALS TEAR with tonight's O/U winner! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank! Frank also spots a BIG DOG in the NBA that will keep their game MUCH CLOSER THAN EXPECTED! CA$H IT IN!
|
12-02-21 |
Thunder +11.5 v. Grizzlies |
|
79-152 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (561) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (562). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (6-15) has lost seven straight games and nine of their last ten after their 114-110 upset loss to Houston last night as a 2.5-point favorite. Memphis (11-10) has won two in a row with their 98-91 win at Toronto as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City allowed the Rockets to make 50.6% of their shots last night which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage this season. This is a young team — but they are playing solid on the defensive end of the court where they rank 13th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss in their last game. Oklahoma City should handle the lack of rest as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing without a day of rest — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing their third game in four days. The Thunder go on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games. Additionally, Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 road games when getting 6.5 to 12 points as an underdog. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning two of their last three games. The defense has been the problem for this team as they are last in the league in Defensive Efficiency. Ja Morant has been bailing them out — but their star player is out indefinitely with a knee injury. The Grizzlies return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Memphis has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City is making only 41.1% of their shots — but the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who are not making more than 43% of their shots. 10* NBA Big Dog Surprise with the Oklahoma City Thunder (561) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-21 |
Wolves v. Wizards -4.5 |
|
107-115 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Washington Wizards (540) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (539). THE SITUATION: Washington (13-8) has lost three of their last five games after their 116-99 upset loss at San Antonio as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Minnesota (11-10) has won two in a row and seven of their last eight after their 100-98 victory as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WIZARDS MINUS THE POINTS: Washington allowed the Spurs to make 53.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting percentage they allowed in their last 16 games. The Wizards have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win. Washington has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread victory. They return home for this contest where they have a 7-2 record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on their home court. Minnesota held the Pacers to just 39.6% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five contests. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after a win on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a narrow win by three points or less. Minnesota has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning two games in a row. The T-Wolves go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Minnesota has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Wizards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 trips to Washington to play the Wizards. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Washington Wizards (540) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-30-21 |
Knicks v. Nets UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
110-112 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (531) and the Brooklyn Nets (532). THE SITUATION: New York (11-9) has won two of their last three games after their 99-90 victory at Atlanta on Saturday. Brooklyn (14-6) had their four-game winning streak end on Saturday with their 113-107 upset loss to Phoenix as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knicks probably played their best defensive game of the season against the Hawks. New York held Atlanta to just 35.5% shooting — the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season — and the 90 points they gave up was the second-lowest mark of the year. Not coincidentally, head coach Tom Thibodeau did not play Kemba Walker in the game — and he announced yesterday that he was removing Walker from the rotation completely. Walker was a high-priced free-agent signee in the offseason from Boston to provide an offensive spark. He has scored 11.7 Points-Per-Game in the 24.5 minutes per game he has played this season. His removal from the rotation will lead to lower scoring games for the Knicks since the team will lose his outside shooting but benefit from getting closer to Thibodeau’s expectations of the play of their defense. New York has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 105 points in their last game. In their last five games, they are scoring 102.2 PPG on 41.9% shooting — a drop of -4.1 PPG from their season average. The Knicks stay on the road where they have played 6 straight Unders — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. New York has also played 21 of their last 31 road games Under the Total with the Total in the 210-219.5 point range. Additionally, the Knicks have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. The Nets stay at home where the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total when favored. Brooklyn has won seven of their last nine games in a stretch fueled by the play of their defense. In those nine games, the Nets rank sixth in the league in Defensive Efficiency. They will be without sharpshooter Joe Harris indefinitely with his shoulder injury.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 9 of their last 12 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (531) and the Brooklyn Nets (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-26-21 |
San Francisco v. UAB UNDER 141.5 |
Top |
63-61 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (883) and the UAB Blazers (884) in the Finals of the Las Vegas Invitational. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (7-0) won their opening round game in this holiday tournament with a 71-61 victory as a 13-point favorite last night. UAB (5-1) comes off an 86-73 victory against New Mexico as an 11-point favorite last night in this event. This tournament is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dons have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. San Francisco has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning at least two in a row. San Francisco is tough on the defensive glass — they rank 11th in the nation by limiting their opponents to pulling down only 20% of their missed shots. Head coach Bob McKillop has his team play tough defense as they have held their last five opponents to just 40.2% shooting which is resulting in only 62.6 Points-Per-Game. The Dons have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. UAB has played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. After losing at South Carolina, the Blazers have won and covered the point spread in two straight games. UAB has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row — and they have played 10 straight Unders after covering the point spread in their last two games. And while the Blazers have scored 86 points in each of their last two games after being held to 63 points in their loss to the Gamecocks, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. They are averaging 86.7 PPG on 48.7% shooting this season — but in their two games away from home, that productivity drops to 74.5 PPG on 42.1% shooting. UAB has held their last five opponents to 62.4 PPG on 41.1% shooting. They are 31st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 42.3% shooting inside the arc — and the Dons have been living inside with a 61.8% shooting mark for their 2-point shots which is fourth-best in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 6-1-1 in the Blazers’ last 8 games as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total on a neutral court as a dog getting up to three points. San Francisco is scoring 79.9 PPG — but this is just their second game away from home after scoring 71 points last night in Vegas. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on a neutral court when favored or a pick ‘em. 25* CBB Las Vegas Invitational Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (883) and the UAB Blazers (884). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-26-21 |
Hawks v. Grizzlies +1.5 |
|
132-100 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (544) minus the point(s) versus the Atlanta Hawks (543). THE SITUATION: Memphis (9-9) has lost two of their last three games with their 126-113 upset loss to Toronto as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday. Atlanta (10-9) has won six in a row after a 124-106 win at San Antonio as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINT(S): Memphis should respond with a better effort tonight. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Memphis has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a loss by 10 or more points. Not having Dillon Brooks early in the season held this team back — especially on the defensive end of the court — but he is working himself back into playing shape this month and should play tonight after logging in 20+ minutes against the Raptors. It is Ja Morant who is the straw that stirs the drink for this team. He entered the week one made basket shy of a 50% shooting clip — but he has made only 17 of his 45 shots in his two games this week. He is still scoring 25.3 Points-Per-Game while dishing out 7.1 Assists-Per-Game and pulling down 6.1 Rebounds-Per-Game. The Grizzlies return home where they are 6-4 and where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Atlanta has taken a step back on defense this season in the first full season under head coach Nate McMillan — they rank 25th in the Defensive Efficiency. Losing De’Andre Hunter for eight weeks to a wrist injury does not help the defensive cause for this group. Bogdan Bogdanovich is questionable with a hamstring injury. The Hawks are only 2-8 on the road after their win against the Spurs two days ago. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight home games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has been favored in all six games during their current winning streak. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games as an underdog. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Memphis Grizzlies (544) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Atlanta Hawks (543). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-21 |
Wizards v. Pelicans UNDER 211.5 |
|
102-127 |
Loss |
-105 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (527) and the New Orleans Pelicans (528). THE SITUATION: Washington (11-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 109-103 upset loss as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. New Orleans (3-16) has lost four of their last five games with their 110-96 loss to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wizards are playing great defense under rookie head coach Wes Unseld Jr. That Unseld is getting solid defensive contributions from Montrezl Harrell is extraordinary when considering he was pushed out of the Lakers’ rotation last season due to his play on that end of the court. Washington ranks 5th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. The Wizards have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now they go back on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 41.7% shooting from the field which is resulting in only 100.9 PPG. Washington has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Wizards rank just 20th in the league in Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring only 100.0 PPG on the road. Additionally, Washington has played 6 straight Unders as a favorite — and they have played 5 straight Unders against teams not winning at least 40% of their games. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 straight Unders after a double-digit loss. The Pelicans rank just 26th in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring just 96.4 PPG in their last five games. They stay at home where the Under is 11-2-1 in their last 14 games — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games as an underdog. New Orleans has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Washington won the last meeting between these two teams by a 105-100 with the Total set at 208 back on November 15th. These two teams have played 20 of their last 27 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games in the Big Easy Under the Total. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (527) and the New Orleans Pelicans (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-21 |
Raptors v. Grizzlies OVER 217 |
|
126-113 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (525) and the Memphis Grizzlies (526). THE SITUATION: Toronto (8-10) has lost four of their last five games after a 119-104 upset loss as a 9-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (9-8) has won three of their last four games with their 119-118 upset win at Utah as an 11-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Raptors made only 39.4% of their shots on Sunday which was the second-lowest field goal percentage of the season for them. Toronto has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 26 of their last 37 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. They stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog. Memphis has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Grizzlies return home where they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Memphis is last in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency — but they also rank a respectable 10th in Offensive Efficiency. Toronto ranks 8th in the league in Offensive Efficiency — but they are a disappointing 21st in Defensive Efficiency.
FINAL TAKE: The Raptors have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range — and 25 of their last 33 games Over the Total with the number in that 210-219.5 point range. 10* NBA Over/Under Situational Special with Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (525) and the Memphis Grizzlies (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-21 |
Gonzaga v. UCLA +7 |
Top |
83-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (618) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (617) in the Finals of the Empire Classic tournament. THE SITUATION: UCLA (5-0) has opened the season with five straight victories after their 75-62 victory against Bellarmine last night in their opening game in this two-day tournament. Gonzaga (5-0) has won five games in a row to open the season with their 107-54 win against Central Michigan as a 34-point favorite last night in their first game in this event. The Empire Classic takes place on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: UCLA continues to be undervalued by the market after their improbable run to the Final Four last season. The Bruins were the beneficiaries of some shooting luck in the NCAA Tournament — but shooting luck did not account for them going blow-for-blow with that loaded Gonzaga team in the National Semifinals. UCLA improved as the season went on under second-year head coach Mick Cronin teaching his defensive principles in a season marred by COVID. The Bruins return three players that are on the preseason Wooden Award watch list in Johnny Juzang (who single-handedly beat Michigan in the Elite Eight), Tyger Campbell (started every game at point guard for Cronin at UCLA), and Jamie Jaquez, Jr. (last year’s second-leading scorer). Cronin won’t have big man Cody Riley tonight as he recovers from an MCL injury — but he brought in Myles Johnson as a transfer from Rutgers with his seven-foot-seven wingspan. He was 19th in the nation last year in block rate. Peyton Watson is a top-ten recruit who also gets added into the mix of a group that has 91% of the returning minutes back from the Final Four team. This is a loaded group that continues to improve under Cronin. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. UCLA only made 45.2% of their shots last night which was the worst shooting effort for them so far this season — and the 45.1% shooting they allowed last night was the second-highest of the year. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss after failing to cover the 22.5-point spread last night. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Gonzaga held the Chippewas to just 30.4% shooting last night which was the best defensive effort of the season. After a 12-point win against Texas in their second game of the year, the Bulldogs have won their next three games by at least 27 points — but that was against a Bellarmine team ranked 188th in the nation in KenPom’s rankings. Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning three in a row by at least 15 points. They have covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after only failing to cover the point spread once in their last four games. And while they have scored at least 84 points in each of their games this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after scoring at least 80 points in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games on the road after scoring at least 80 points in five straight games. Gonzaga’s stiffest competition was against a Texas team under new coach Chris Beard coaching a group of high-profile transfers. That Longhorns team is a few months away from successfully executing Beard’s no-middle defense that attempts to trap the ball to one side of the court. Gambling on that guess was pure guesswork early in the season (which is why I tend to embrace caution in the November CBB games — especially with the transfer market now even busier in the offseason). What was telling in that game, for me, was that the Zag’s 7’0 freshman phenom Chet Holmgren made just one of three shots for 2 points. I think it remains to be seen if he is a good fit when playing on the floor with the 6’10 Drew Timme. The twin towers look is not as successful for modern basketball — and Holmgren’s ability to defend the perimeter is an issue (and it is not a strength for Timme). Gonzaga should be great once again this year — but this group is a work in progress for head coach Mark Few after losing a top-five pick in Jalen Suggs along with two other starters in outside shooter Corey Krispert and a glue guy in Joel Ayayi.
FINAL TAKE: UCLA’s victory over Villanova this season is more impressive than Gonzaga’s win over the Longhorns. Cronin will have his team very motivated to avenge their 93-90 loss to the Bulldogs in the Final Four last year — and he has had all the off-season to scheme a defensive play against Timme. The Bruins are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog. UCLA has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Game of the Month with the UCLA Bruins (618) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (617). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-20-21 |
76ers v. Blazers -6 |
|
111-118 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (548) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (547). THE SITUATION: Portland (8-8) has won three of their last four games after their 112-107 win against Chicago as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Philadelphia (9-7) snapped their five-game losing streak with a 103-89 upset win at Denver as a 7.5-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: Portland dug themselves into a first-half hole against the Bulls as they went into halftime trailing by a 63-48 score. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in nine of their last eleven games after trailing by 15 or more points at halftime of their last game. Portland is playing better defense under rookie head coach Chauncey Billups. After posting the league’s second-worst Defensive Efficiency Rating of 115.3 last year, the Blazers have improved their Defensive Efficiency to a 110.1 mark this year. While that only ranks 26th in the league, Billups only needs this team to be middle-of-the-road on that end of court given the firepower he has on offense. Portland has covered the point spread in 6 of their 8 games at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when favored. The Trail Blazers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Philadelphia played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Nuggets to just 36.0% shooting. They also made 50.6% of their shots in that game which was the best shooting mark in their last six games. But the 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset win by double-digits. Philly remains a circus with the Ben Simmons situation unresolved — and whether due to his absence or the lack of talent they will bring in when he is inevitably traded, depth is an issue for this team. The Sixers have also been hit hard with injuries and COVID. Joel Embiid is on the COVID list and Danny Green is not available tonight with his hamstring. Philadelphia is just 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games when getting 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Portland looks to avenge a 113-103 loss at Philadelphia as a 2-point road favorite on November 1st. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 10* NBA Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Portland Trail Blazers (548) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (547). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-19-21 |
Pacers +1.5 v. Hornets |
Top |
118-121 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (513) plus the point(s) versus the Charlotte Hornets (514). THE SITUATION: Indiana (6-10) has lost two in a row after their 97-89 upset loss at Detroit as a 6.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Charlotte (9-7) has won four in a row with their 97-87 win against Washington as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Indiana should respond with a strong effort under head coach Rick Carlisle in his first-year back with the organization. The Pacers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after an upset loss to a Central Division rival as a favorite laying at least six points. Indiana has not had their shots fall in their last two games as they have not even reached 90 points in their last two games. They are still averaging 106.3 PPG. The Pacers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to score at least 105 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score in triple digits in two straight games. Indiana started the season slow by losing five of their first six games. Since Caris LeVert was healthy enough to take the court in their seventh game, the Pacers have ranked 13th in the league in Net Efficiency Margin. Five of their losses have been by four points or less — and they did upset Utah and Philadelphia last week before this recent rough patch. Carlisle has this team playing better on defense. They have held five of their last eight opponents to 100 or fewer points — and only one of their last six opponents has made more than 43.0% of their shots. Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams with winning records. Charlotte had pulled off three straight upset wins against Memphis, New York, and Golden State before their victory against the Wizards on Wednesday. We had Washington in that game — and the expected shot quality data from that game projected the Wizards to win by 11 points (for what that is worth). While the Hornets’ defensive field goal percentage of 36.7% in that game was their best mark of the season, the shot quality data suggests that had more to do with Washington having a bad night shooting the basketball than it being about the play of the Charlotte defense. The Hornets rank just 25th in the league in Defensive Efficiency. A letdown is likely. Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win at home. The Hornets have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 95 points in their last game. And in their last 11 games after winning at least three in a row, Charlotte has lost 7 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: In their last ten games, the Hornets only rank 20th in Net Efficiency Margin. They did beat the Pacers at home on October 20th by a 123-122 score — but Indiana has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when motivated by revenge. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Underdog of the Month with the Indiana Pacers (513) plus the point(s) versus the Charlotte Hornets (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-21 |
Mavs v. Suns -8 |
|
98-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (576) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (575). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (10-3) has won nine straight games with their 99-96 win at Minnesota as a 4-point favorite on Monday. Dallas (9-4) has won two straight and five of their last six games with their 111-101 win against Denver as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix defeated the Timberwolves despite shooting a season-low 37.6% of their shots from the field. The Suns held Minnesota to just 36.5% shooting in their third-straight game where they did not allow their opponent to make more than 40.7% of their shots. In their nine-game winning streak, Phoenix has held seven of those opponents to no better than 40.7% shooting. The Suns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored — and they are 48-22-1 ATS in their last 71 games against teams with a winning record. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Mavericks made 50.0% of their shots against the Nuggets in what was their third-best shooting effort of the season. Despite winning nine of thirteen games, Dallas has a negative Net Rating while ranking in the bottom half of the league in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. They go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games as an underdog. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games against the Suns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 trips to Phoenix. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Phoenix Suns (576) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (575). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-21 |
Wizards +1 v. Hornets |
Top |
87-97 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Washington Wizards (559) plus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (560). THE SITUATION: Washington (10-3) has won five games in a row with their 105-100 win against New Orleans as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. Charlotte (8-7) has won three straight games with their 106-102 upset win against Golden State as a 5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WIZARDS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington has been one of the biggest surprises of the NBA this season. Led by Bradley Beal, the Wizards made the playoffs last season. And while he is no longer playing alongside a second superstar in Russell Westbrook, the haul Washington got back in trading him to the Lakers has given this team intriguing depth. The Wizards brought back Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Montrezl Harrell in the deal — and they also added Spencer Dinwiddie via free agency in the offseason. Rookie head coach Wes Unseld, Jr. has done a great job with this team — especially on the defensive end the court. Washington is fourth in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency — and they are seventh in the league in Net Rating. Washington has won their last two games with Bradley Beal who has taken personal time after the death of his grandmother. Beal returns to the court tonight — and he should be playing with extra emotion. As it is, the Wizards have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 games after a point spread victory. And while their game with the Pelicans finished Under the 208 Total, they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after playing Under the Total in their last game. And while Washington has won eight of their last ten games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They go back on the road where they are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games. Charlotte has pulled off three straight upset wins after beating Memphis by 10 points and Golden State by 8 points before their 4-point win against the Warriors. But the Hornets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning three in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after pulling off three straight upset wins. Charlotte made 47.7% of their shots against the Warriors in what was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. The Hornets are second in the NBA by making 37.3% of their shots from behind the arc — but the Wizards lead the league by containing their opponents to just 30.7% shooting from downtown. Charlotte stays at home where they are 4-2 this season — but they are outscoring their guest by only +1.9 PPG. They are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games with the Total set in the 220-229.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Hornets need to being hitting their 3s since they rank 26th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. Charlotte has been inconsistent this season — but they are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. 25* NBA Southeast Division Underdog of the Month with the Washington Wizards (559) plus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-12-21 |
Villanova v. UCLA -2.5 |
|
77-86 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (888) minus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (887). THE SITUATION: UCLA (1-0) opened their season with a 95-58 victory against Cal-State Bakersfield as a 23-point favorite on Tuesday. Villanova (1-0) began their campaign with a 91-51 victory against Mount St. Mary’s as a 25.5-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINT(S): UCLA is being undervalued by the market after their improbable run to the Final Four last season. The Bruins were the beneficiaries of some shooting luck in the NCAA Tournament — but shooting luck did not account for them going blow-for-blow with that loaded Gonzaga team in the National Semifinals. UCLA improved as the season went on under second-year head coach Mick Cronin teaching his defensive principles in a season marred by COVID. The Bruins return three players that are on the preseason Wooden Award watch list in Johnny Juzang (who single-handedly beat Michigan in the Elite Eight), Tyger Campbell (started every game at point guard for Cronin at UCLA), and Jamie Jaquez, Jr. (last year’s second-leading scorer). Cronin won’t have big man Cody Riley tonight as he recovers from an MCL injury — but he brought in Myles Johnson as a transfer from Rutgers with his seven-foot-seven wingspan. He was 19th in the nation last year in block rate. Peyton Watson is a top-ten recruit who also gets added into the mix of a group that has 91% of the returning minutes back from the Final Four team. This is a loaded group that continues to improve under Cronin. They get to host this game at Pauley Pavilion where they are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games. The Bruins are also 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after a straight-up win — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a point spread victory. Villanova has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a point spread win. This is a very tough spot for head coach Jay Wright’s team to travel across the country early in the season to then play when their body clocks tell them it is 11:30 PM ET. The Wildcats return Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels who are great college basketball players — but Wright is not bringing in the NBA talent that he was just a few years ago. Four starters return from the group that lost to Baylor in the Sweet 16. But Wright is replacing Jeremiah Robinson-Earl who was the lynchpin of what was an otherwise suspect team on defense — he was drafted by the Oklahoma City Thunder early in the second round of the NBA draft. Villanova tends to live-by-the-tree but die-by-the-three — they nailed 53% of their 3-pointers on Tuesday. Defending the arc will be a point of emphasis for Cronin after allowing Cal-State Bakersfield to make 41% of their 3-pointers. The Bruins held their opponents to 33.7% of the shots from downtown last season.
FINAL TAKE: Villanova has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. UCLA is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. 10* CBB Villanova-UCLA ESPN2 Special with the UCLA Bruins (888) minus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (887). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-12-21 |
Knicks -1.5 v. Hornets |
Top |
96-104 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (555) minus the point(s) versus the Charlotte Hornets (556). THE SITUATION: New York (7-5) has lost four of their last six games with their 112-100 upset loss to Milwaukee as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Charlotte (6-7) snapped their five-game losing streak with a 118-108 upset win at Memphis as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: New York should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss. The Knicks added scoring punch to their playoff team last year by acquiring Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier. The new starting backcourt for head coach Tom Thibodeau has created scoring depth for this team — they rank fifth in the league in Offensive Efficiency. New York goes on the road where they are 5-1 this season. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. Charlotte played their best defensive game of the season by holding their opponents to just 42.5% of their shots. The Hornets still rank 28th in the league in Defensive Efficiency. They also made 45.6% of their shots which was the second-highest shooting percentage in their last six games. But Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. They return home where they have failed to cover the pint spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games with the Total set at 220 to 229.5 point range. Furthermore, Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 38 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Road Warrior of the Month with the New York Knicks (555) minus the point(s) versus the Charlotte Hornets (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-21 |
Heat -4 v. Lakers |
Top |
117-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (547) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (548). THE SITUATION: Miami (7-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 113-96 upset loss at Denver as a 1.5-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (6-5) has won four of their last six games with their 126-123 win against Charlotte as a 2-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: The Heat made only 39.7% of their shots against the Nuggets in what was the second-worst shooting performance in their last six games. But Miami still ranks third in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Tyler Herro has bounced back from a sophomore slump last year to lead the team in scoring in the preseason and carry over that momentum into the regular season. He is scoring 20.3 PPG after his first ten games giving the Heat a scoring punch off the bench. Frankly, the Heat should be given a pass for taking a step back last year after their surprising run to the NBA Finals in the bubble in the fall of 2020. The shortened offseason did not help a team that was later hit hard by COVID and injuries — and then they caught a Milwaukee team in the playoffs motivated to avenge their playoff loss to Miami in the bubble. The Heat also made a couple of nice additions in the offseason to add Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker which gives the team toughness and more defensive acumen. The Heat rank sixth in the NBA Defensive Efficiency. This group is a serious contender to win the Eastern Conference and get back to the NBA Finals. Miami has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread loss. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. The Lakers are playing without LeBron James who is out indefinitely with an abdominal injury. LA is significantly worse without James. Entering the week, the Lakers were outscoring their opponents by +2.9 points per 100 possessions with James on the court — but they are getting outscored by -4.7 points per 100 possessions when James is not on the court. Los Angeles is scoring 10 points fewer per 100 possessions without James on the court. The play of the Lakers’ defense has also been a problem even with James healthy. After leading the league in Defensive Efficiency last season, Los Angeles ranks just 14th in efficiency this season. They are allowing their opponents to pull down 28.8% of their missed shots ranking 24th in the NBA — and the Heat is fourth in the league by rebounding 30.3% of their missed shots. LA also ranks last in the league in opponent free throw rate — and Miami is third in free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home in the Staples Center — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are dealing with injuries — but the allure of playing on national television should help some of these players listed as questionable to take the court. Jimmy Butler is ready to roll. The Lakers are still without Talent Horton-Tucker and Trevor Ariza who are important for both depth and better play on defense. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when getting the points. Miami is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games when favored. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Game of the Month with the Miami Heat (547) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-21 |
Pistons v. Rockets UNDER 210.5 |
|
112-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (531) and the Houston Rockets (532). THE SITUATION: Detroit (1-8) has lost four in a row after their 96-90 loss to Brooklyn as a 9.5-point underdog on Friday. Houston (1-9) has lost eight in a row with their 120-107 loss at Golden State as a 12.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pistons made only 37.9% of their shots against the Nets. They have only made more than 40.9% of their shots once in their first nine games of the season. Detroit is last in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency as they begin to build their offense around Cade Cunningham who start to the season was delayed by injury. They are scoring only 94.9 Points-Per-Game on 39.4% shooting this season — and in Cunningham’s four games since returning from an ankle injury, they are scoring only 92.8 points per 100 possessions. Last year’s first-round pick, Killian Hayes, continues to disappoint after coming to the US after playing in France. The Pistons have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. They go on the road where they have played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Under is 8-2-1 in Detroit’s last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less — and the Under is 18-7-2 in their last 27 games as an underdog. Houston has played 4 straight Unders after a double-digit loss at home. They allowed the Warriors to make 51.8% of their shots which was the second-highest field goal percentage mark that they have surrendered this season. The bigger issue for this team has been on offense. Rookie Jalen Green entered the week making only 35.3% of his shots. Kevin Porter, Jr. is shooting just 36.7% from the field entering the week — and his transition to point guard has been marred by turnovers. The Rockets turn the ball over in 19.1% of their possessions which is the highest mark in the league. This is the main reason why they rank third-to-last in Offensive Efficiency. They return home where they make only 41.9% of their shots. The defense at home has been solid — they hold their opponents to 43.1% shooting and 106.7 PPG. Houston last played at home on October 28th — and they have played 35 of their last 52 home games Under the Total after being on the road for at least seven days. The Rockets have played 36 of their last 51 home games Under the Total — and the Under is 19-7-1 in their last 27 home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have played 6 straight Unders against teams with a losing record. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (531) and the Houston Rockets (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-08-21 |
Nets v. Bulls UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
95-118 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (503) and the Chicago Bulls (504). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (7-3) has won five straight games after their 116-103 victory at Toronto as a 3.5-point favorite yesterday. Chicago (6-3) has lost two in a row after their 114-105 loss to Philadelphia as a 4-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets made 51.9% of their shots yesterday in what was the best shooting effort of the young season for them. They also allowed the Raptors to make 47.1% of their shots which was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season and highest in their last eight games. Even with yesterday’s numbers, Brooklyn has allowed their last five opponents to make just 41.8% of their shots. The Nets rank 6th in the league in Defensive Efficiency. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. Brooklyn has also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Nets’ starting five combined to play 168:17 minutes yesterday, they have then played 5 straight Unders after playing a game where the starting five combined to play at least 160 minutes. Brooklyn stays on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Under is also 15-5-1 in their last 21 games as an underdog. Chicago allowed the 76ers to make 53.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. They had not allowed their opponents to make more than 49.4% of their shots before Saturday. The Bulls rank 7th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Chicago stays at home where they have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total. The Bulls have also played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight Unders when facing each other — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing at Chicago. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (503) and the Chicago Bulls (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-05-21 |
Grizzlies v. Wizards -2 |
Top |
87-115 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Washington Wizards (538) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (537). THE SITUATION: Washington (5-3) has lost two in a row after their 109-100 upset loss to Toronto as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Memphis (5-3) has won three of their last four games after pulling off their second straight upset win against Denver on Wednesday in a 108-106 upset victory as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WIZARDS MINUS THE POINTS: Washington should rebound with a strong effort tonight. The Wizards have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. Washington is also 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. And while the Wizards have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Led by Bradley Beal, the Wizards made the playoffs last season. And while he is no longer playing alongside a second superstar in Russell Westbrook, the haul Washington got back in trading him to the Lakers has given this team intriguing depth. The Wizards brought back Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Montrezl Harrell in the deal — and they also added Spencer Dinwiddie via free agency in the offseason. Washington stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 home games with the Total set at 220 to 229.5 point range. Additionally, the Wizards have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games when favored. Memphis made 51.9% of their shots on Wednesday to pull off their second-straight upset win against the Nuggets this week. That was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. But the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a close win by three points or less at home. Memphis goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Grizzlies have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Memphis is playing without Dillon Brooks who is out with a hand injury. The team misses his impact on defense — the Grizzlies rank last in the NBA in Defensive Rating. Their struggles on the defensive end of the court have pulled down their Net Rating so far this season to just 24th in the league. Washington ranks 11th in the NBA with their Net Efficiency Rating entering this season.
FINAL TAKE: Kyle Kuzma has been upgraded to probable after leaving Wednesday’s game with a wrist injury. The Wizards have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Washington Wizards (538) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (537). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-21 |
Blazers -5.5 v. Cavs |
|
104-107 |
Loss |
-109 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (501) minus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (502). THE SITUATION: Portland (3-4) suffered their second-straight upset loss on Monday in their 113-103 upset loss at Philadelphia as a 2-point favorite. Cleveland (4-4) has won four of their last six games after a 113-110 upset victory at Charlotte as a 5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: Portland got upset on Sunday when they were beaten in Charlotte by a 125-113 score as a 2-point road favorite. The Blazers should respond to these wake-up calls tonight after allowing the 76ers to make 57.8% of their shots in their worst defensive game of the season. Portland has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after suffering two straight upset losses. The Trail Blazers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two in a row by double-digits. Additionally, Portland has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road after not covering the point spread in two straight games. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when playing their third game in four days on the road. And in their last 7 road games when favored, the Blazers have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. Cleveland made only 43.3% of their shots in their win against the Hornets — but that was still their best shooting mark in their last four games. The Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win. Now after being on the road since October 23rd, Cleveland returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Cavaliers are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home as an underdog. Cleveland is also 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Cavaliers are undermanned tonight with both Lauri Markkanen and Kevin Love in COVID quarantine. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Portland Trail Blazers (501) minus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-21 |
Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics |
Top |
116-107 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Washington Wizards (537) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (538). THE SITUATION: Washington (2-1) won their first two games of the season before losing at Brooklyn by a 104-90 score on Monday as a 6-point underdog. Boston (2-2) has won two games in a row with their 140-129 win at Charlotte as a 1.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WIZARDS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington only made 34.7% of their shots against the Nets which was their worst shooting effort of the young season. The Wizards have bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss — and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up loss. Washington has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games when playing with one day of rest. Led by Bradley Beal, the Wizards made the playoffs last season. And while he is no longer playing alongside a second superstar in Russell Westbrook, the haul Washington got back in trading him to the Lakers has given this team intriguing depth. The Wizards brought back Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Montrezl Harrell in the deal — and they also added Spencer Dinwiddie via free agency in the offseason. Washington stays on the road where they are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games as an underdog. Boston made 49.5% of their shots on Monday to return to a .500 record — that was their best shooting effort of the season. But the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a double-digit victory. Boston has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. And in their last 4 games after scoring at least 125 points, the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread all 4 times. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games when playing with one day of rest. It is a new regime in Boston with Danny Ainge gone from the front office with Brad Stevens moving upstairs to replace him with Ime Udoka replacing him on the sideline. The rookie head coach has been shaky in his debut with some of his rotation decisions. They lost by 32 points in their first game at home this year. The Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored. Boston has their big two in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown — but is there enough support? They traded their first-round pick to bring back Al Horford and they also signed Dennis Schroeder who was a locker room problem with the Lakers last year. This group remains a work in progress — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better.
FINAL TAKE: Washington will remember their 118-100 loss the last time they played the Celtics which was in Boston on May 18th when they were a small 1.5-point underdog. The Wizards remain 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Boston. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with the Washington Wizards (537) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-21 |
76ers v. Knicks -1 |
Top |
99-112 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (520) minus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia 76ers (519). THE SITUATION: New York (2-1) had their two-game winning streak to start the season end with a 110-104 upset loss at home to Orlando as a 12-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (2-1) has won two of their first three games with their 115-103 win at Oklahoma City as a 10-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: After making 48.6% and 50% of their shots in their first two games, New York only made 37.0% of their shots against the Magic. The Knicks should bounce-back tonight. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after a point spread win. New York has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games when favored overall. They are also 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games when playing a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The 76ers continue to play under the shadow of the Ben Simmons drama — he is not playing for the team right now with him demanding a trade. The Sixers stay on the road where they are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 road games as an underdog. They are also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: New York has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 34 expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 22 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Month with the New York Knicks (520) minus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia 76ers (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-20-21 |
Suns +5 v. Bucks |
|
98-105 |
Loss |
-107 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (511) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (512) in Game Six of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-28) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 123-119 upset loss at home to Milwaukee as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Milwaukee (61-33) can win the NBA Championship tonight with their 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINTS: We incorrectly had Phoenix on Saturday — it was another game where our side won the expected score but lost on the scoreboard. The deeper analytics that assesses shot quality projected that the Suns win Game Five 58% of the time. But Phoenix allowed Milwaukee to make 57.5% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last 25 games. The Bucks’ 57.5% shooting from the field was the best shooting effort in their last 87 contests going all the way back to January 4th. It was the second-best offensive performance of the season. They nailed 14 of their 28 shots from behind the arc. I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods — especially with the pressure of closing out the series to win the title. These Game Sixes are tricky for a home team with a 3-2 series lead. While they have a bird in the hand on a potential seventh game, there often is stress and anxiety of feeling the urgency to end things in front of their home fans. The Bucks may win the title — and I have been frustrated with the critics who too quickly place blame on Mike Budenholzer despite it being his coaching and his timely adjustments (and patience with the things that got his team into this position) that has them on the precipice of the championship. But I do not think it is going to be easy for this Milwaukee team. They have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after winning three in a row. And while the Bucks have covered the point spread in the last three games in this series, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Phoenix made 13 of their 19 shots from behind the arc — but it was the variance from midrange shooting that made the difference in Game Five. The Suns should have scored five more points from their midrange shots given the shot quality data — and the Bucks should have scored 7 points less from the midrange given the shot quality data. Phoenix has bounced back to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after an upset loss. Additionally, the Suns have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a point spread loss. Now Phoenix goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Suns have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 40 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when motivated by triple revenge. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Phoenix Suns (511) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-20-21 |
Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222.5 |
Top |
98-105 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (511) and the Milwaukee Bucks (512) in Game Six of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-28) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 123-119 upset loss at home to Milwaukee as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Milwaukee (61-33) can win the NBA Championship tonight with their 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The high-scoring game I expected for Game Four was a game late. The Suns not only blew a 16-point lead at the end of the first quarter but also a 55.2% clip from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. They made 13 of their 19 shots from behind the arc for a 68% shooting percentage of their 3s. But Phoenix allowed Milwaukee to make 57.5% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last 25 games. Chris Paul declared after their Game One victory that they want to play with pace in this series. In hindsight, that appears to be a mistake. The Bucks are winning this series with rebounding and transition points — and more possessions fuel that edge for them. I will not be surprised if the Suns look to slow the pace of this game down to take the advantage of the veteran leadership Paul provides them in close games. As it is, Phoenix has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Suns have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. They go back on the road where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games as an underdog. Milwaukee’s 57.5% shooting from the field was the best shooting effort in their last 87 contests going all the way back to January 4th. It was the second-best offensive performance of the season. They nailed 14 of their 28 shots from behind the arc. I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods — especially with the pressure of closing out the series to win the title. These Game Sixes are tricky for a home team with a 3-2 series lead. While they have a bird in the hand on a potental seventh game, there often is stress and anxiety of feeling the urgency to end things in front of their home fans. The Bucks should play better on defense after letting Phoenix make more than 50% of their shots in two straight games — and they have played all 3 games Under the Total this season after allowing their last two opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field. The Under is also 4-1-1 in Milwaukee’s last 6 games when playing with two days of rest. They return home where the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games — and the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams when playing in Milwaukee. 25* NBA Tuesday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (511) and the Milwaukee Bucks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-17-21 |
Bucks v. Suns -3.5 |
|
123-119 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (510) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (509) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-27) has lost the last two games of this series after their 109-103 loss on the road to the Bucks as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Milwaukee (60-33) has won six of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Game Four was extremely frustrating. Phoenix led the game for just under 39 minutes. They were covering the point spread as the two-possession underdog for 47:40 minutes of the contest before they let the game slip away in the final 20 seconds. Chris Paul, perhaps one of the most overrated players in the league considering his historical reputation far exceeds his results in the postseason, too played the game with discipline one would expect in an exhibition contest. When Paul has his A-Game, he is fantastic. Too often, he drives the lane with reckless abandon before trying to attempt a Magic Johnson pass. In a game where he needed to show leadership through discipline in his actions, he played out of control. A hidden injury is not the reason why he is trying to do too much. He has 15 turnovers in the last three games because he is not playing with the composure of a veteran with deep playoff experience. And I make this selection fully aware that the expected points projections from shot quality indicate that Milwaukee should have won the last three games in this series. The Bucks may be the better team — I do not know. Frankly, I do not think either of these teams are very good, relative to recent NBA champions. Given that, I don’t think Milwaukee is good enough to outplay a quality team four times in a row — and I do expect Paul and this Suns team to play better back at home. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a loss by six points or less. The Suns have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a point spread loss. Phoenix has made at least 48.2% of their shots in the last three games of the series — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after making at least 47% of their shots in three straight games. Making shots has not been the problem for the Suns. Defensive rebounding and committing too many turnovers is what has gotten the Bucks back into this series. Returning home would help where they have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 52 games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Phoenix has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 21 home games when favored by six points or less. The Suns have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 playoff games when favored — and they are 27-10-1 ATS in their last 38 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Milwaukee has won and covered the point spread in the last two games in this series — but consistency has been an issue for head coach Mike Budenholzer’s team. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games after winning two in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after allowing their opponent’s field goal percentage of 47% or higher in three straight games. Now Milwaukee goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games as an underdog. The Bucks have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games as an underdog in the playoffs.
FINAK TAKE: Phoenix has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 10* NBA Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Phoenix Suns (510) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (509). Best of luck for us - Frank.
|
07-17-21 |
Bucks v. Suns UNDER 219 |
Top |
123-119 |
Loss |
-101 |
7 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (509) and the Phoenix Suns (510) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (60-33) has won the last two games of this series to even things at 2-2 after their 109-103 victory as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Phoenix (65-27) has lost four of their last eight games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks rallied to win Game Four despite allowing the Suns to make 51.3% of their shots. That was the worst defensive effort in Milwaukee’s last 15 games. The Bucks neutralized Phoenix’s shooting edge by creating more scoring opportunities from offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers. Milwaukee held a +12 edge in turnovers by forcing 17 turnovers and only coughing the ball up five times. The Bucks have played 4 straight Unders after having a turnover edge of +10 or better in their last game. The Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when playing with two days of rest. Now Milwaukee goes on the road where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on their home court. The Under is also 9-3-2 in the Bucks’ last 14 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games overall. Phoenix lost Game Four despite that 51.3% field goal percentage which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. The Suns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Phoenix did not cover the point spread in their last two losses in Milwaukee. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two in a row — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: I thought both teams would enjoy sharp offensive games in Game Four — and I was wrong on that front. The Suns’ 51.3% shooting percentage disguised their weak 7 of 23 (30%) clip from behind the arc. Milwaukee made only 40.2% of their shots — but they were saved by Phoenix being sloppy with the basketball and too often playing out of control. The Suns were simply playing too fast — and their likely correction to limit the turnovers that killed them is to slow the pace. With the winner of Game Five seizing control of the series, I expect teams to be nervy. The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 Game Fives Under the Total. With the number still in the high-210s, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NBA Saturday ABC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (509) and the Phoenix Suns (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-14-21 |
Suns +4.5 v. Bucks |
|
103-109 |
Loss |
-107 |
43 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (507) plus points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (508) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-26) looks to bounce back from their 120-100 loss on the road to the Bucks as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Milwaukee (59-33) has three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINTS: The Suns scored their fewest points on Sunday in their last five games. After scoring 102 points in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Clippers, they responded by scoring 130 to close out that series in Game Six. Chris Paul and Devin Booker combined to make only two of their 11 shots from behind the arc in Game Three. They should play better in Game Four. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. The Suns have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss. Phoenix allowed the Bucks to make 47.8% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Suns have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on their home court. Furthermore, Phoenix is 27-9-1 ATS in their last 37 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better overall. Milwaukee’s 47.8% field goal percentage was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. The Bucks have scored at least 105 points in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 51 games after scoring at least 105 points in four straight contests. Milwaukee has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after playing a team from the Western Conference in three straight contests.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games when avenging a loss against their opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Phoenix Suns (507) plus points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-14-21 |
Suns v. Bucks OVER 220 |
Top |
103-109 |
Loss |
-105 |
44 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (507) and the Milwaukee Bucks (508) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-26) looks to bounce-back from their 120-100 loss on the road to the Bucks as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Milwaukee (59-33) has three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Suns scored their fewest points on Sunday in their last five games. After scoring 102 points in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Clippers, they responded by scoring 130 to close out that series in Game Six. Chris Paul and Devin Booker combined to make only two of their 11 shots from behind the arc in Game Three. Phoenix has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Suns have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. Paul commented after Game One that his team wants to push the pace — and they should be rested with the extra day off between games. The Over is 47-23-1 Phoenix’s last 71 games when playing with two days of rest. Furthermore, the Over is 12-5-1 in the Suns’ last 18 games on the road — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games as an underdog. Phoenix has also played 32 of their last 52 games Over the Total when the Total is set at 220 or higher. Milwaukee has played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a win on their home court — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win at by double-digits. Returning home was what the Bucks players not named Giannis Antetokounmpo needed to jump-start their shooting. Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday combined to make 14 of their 28 shots including 8 of their 17 shots from behind the arc. The Over is 3-0-1 in Milwaukee’s last 4 games at home against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Over is also 16-4-2 in the Bucks’ last 22 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 5 straight Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 20 or more points. The Over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 games between these two teams — and I expect this to be the wildest game yet in this series since it remains critical for the Bucks to win the game. 25* NBA Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (507) and the Milwaukee Bucks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-11-21 |
Suns v. Bucks OVER 219.5 |
|
100-120 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (505) and the Milwaukee Bucks (506) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-25) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 118-108 win against the Bucks as a 4.5-point spread favorite on Thursday. Milwaukee (58-33) returns home having lost three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Milwaukee only made 45.2% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. The Bucks made only 9 of their 31 shots from behind the arc. Now Milwaukee returns home where they are making 48.6% of their shots including 38.2% of their 3-point shots. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday struggled in Game Two as they combined to make only 12 of their 37 shots from the field. Both players — along with the Bucks’ role players — usually play better back on their home court. Milwaukee has played 30 of their last 45 games Over the Total after losing their last two games by double-digits on the road. They have played 37 of their last 55 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. Phoenix has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and the Over is 34-16-1 in their last 51 games after a point spread win. The Suns have also played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Phoenix has played 30 of their last 45 games Over the Total after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. Now the Suns go back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 22 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 6 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Over is 16-4-1 in Milwaukee’s last 21 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (505) and the Milwaukee Bucks (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-11-21 |
Suns v. Bucks -4 |
Top |
100-120 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (506) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (505) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-33) returns home down 0-2 in this series after losing Game Two by a 118-108 score as a 4.5-point underdog on Thursday. Phoenix (65-25) has won four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee only made 45.2% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. The Bucks made only 9 of their 31 shots from behind the arc. Now Milwaukee returns home where they are making 48.6% of their shots including 38.2% of their 3-point shots. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday struggled in Game Two as they combined to make only 12 of their 37 shots from the field. Both players — along with the Bucks’ role players — usually play better back on their home court. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after losing two of their last three games. The Bucks have played four straight Overs — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing at least four straight games Over the Total. Milwaukee returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 40 of their last 63 home games with the Total set in the 220s. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Phoenix made 48.9% of their shots in Game Two — but it was their nailing 20 of their 40 shots from behind the arc that really made the difference. The Suns have an effective field goal percentage of 57.3% in this series — and they are outperforming their expected effective field goal percentage of 53.2% in the first two games. The Regression Gods should make an appearance to level things out a bit. Phoenix has covered the point spread in three straight games going back to their Game Six win to close out the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Clippers. The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. And while Phoenix has played four straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least four straight Overs.
FINAL TAKE: I have seen some analytics that projected that Milwaukee should have won Game Two by a 116-104 score based on expected points from the shot quality of both teams. While I take that data with a grain of salt, we are going to win more of our bets than we lose in the long run when we are on the right side of that data. The Bucks are in this series — and they should have more of their shots fall (while seeing more of the Suns' shots not fall). Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 third games in an NBA playoff series under Mike Budenholzer. 25* NBA Sunday ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Milwaukee Bucks (506) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (505). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-08-21 |
Bucks v. Suns UNDER 221.5 |
|
108-118 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (503) and the Phoenix Suns (504) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-32) looks to bounce back from their 118-105 loss on the road to the Suns as a 5-point underdog on Tuesday. Phoenix (64-25) has won three of their last four games to take a 1-0 lead in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Despite the 11-point loss, the Bucks nailed 16 of their 36 shots from behind the arc for a 44.4% shooting clip. Milwaukee entered the NBA Finals making only 31.1% of their 3-point shots — and they are hitting just 34% of their 3-pointers in the playoffs on the road. The Bucks have played three straight Overs — and they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. Additionally, the Under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, Milwaukee has played 5 straight playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series. Phoenix has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing their second game in seven days. Milwaukee allowed Phoenix to make 46.6% of their shots, the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. Even worse, the Suns generated an Offensive Rating of 118.0 in that game which was the fourth-highest opponent’s Offensive Rating Milwaukee has allowed in this postseason. Mike Budenholzer is every pundit’s whipping boy for not making the adjustments they see (or not doing it quick enough) — but the benefit of a seven-game playoff series is to experiment with different defensive schemes. What the Bucks’ pick-and-roll defense places as their top priority is not foul — not only to protect Antetokounmpo to keep him on the court but to also not give up easy free throws. This consideration is rarely mentioned by the ankle-biters. Budenholzer may be content to let Chris Paul once again settle for mid-range jumpers — the shot that these same-ankle bitters consider the worst shot in basketball since it is not a 3-pointer nor a high-percentage shot at the rim. Or, Budenholzer may have defensive stalwart Jrue Holiday play against Paul rather than Devin Booker in Game One. Or, Budenholzer may go back to the drop defense against the pick-and-roll with Brook Lopez playing a little bit higher up the court to challenge the mid-range shot — this was very effective against Trae Young after Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals. I am not sure what Budenholzer will do while acknowledging that he is a far better defensive coach than me (and his critics). The Bucks should commit fewer personal fouls tonight — the Suns got to the free-throw line 26 times and made 25 of those shots from the charity stripe. Milwaukee’s opponent’s free throw attempt to field goal attempt ratio of 16.3% is the lowest in the NBA. Phoenix generated a 29.6% FTA: FGA ratio in Game One — and they average 19 free throw attempts per game. The Suns will not likely have a +16 point edge from the free-throw line tonight. Having Holiday defend Paul may be the preferred adjustment for Budenholzer since Booker’s play has declined a bit as the postseason has moved on. The young star is averaging 23.3 PPG on just 35% shooting from the field and a 22% mark from behind the arc in his last six games.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is supported by an empirical angle that has been 68% effective over the last five seasons. In games involving two teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range when just one of the teams is playing their second game in five days (both Milwaukee and Phoenix trigger this angle), the game finished Under the Total in 91 of these last 134 situations. 10* NBA Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (503) and the Phoenix Suns (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-08-21 |
Bucks +5.5 v. Suns |
Top |
108-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (503) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (504) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-32) looks to bounce back from their 118-105 loss on the road to the Suns as a 5-point underdog on Tuesday. Phoenix (64-25) has won three of their last four games to take a 1-0 lead in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: If there was a plus-side to Milwaukee’s 11-point loss, it was the return of Giannis Antetokounmpo who played 35 minutes and scored 20 points with 17 rebounds. The Bucks made only 45.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They also allowed Phoenix to make 46.6% of their shots, the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. Even worse, the Suns generated an Offensive Rating of 118.0 in that game which was the fourth-highest opponent’s Offensive Rating Milwaukee has allowed in this postseason. Mike Budenholzer is every pundit’s whipping boy for not making the adjustments they see (or not doing it quick enough) — but the benefit of a seven-game playoff series is to experiment with different defensive schemes. What the Bucks’ pick-and-roll defense places as their top priority is not foul — not only to protect Antetokounmpo to keep him on the court but to also not give up easy free throws. This consideration is rarely mentioned by the ankle-biters. Budenholzer may be content to let Chris Paul once again settle for mid-range jumpers — the shot that these same-ankle bitters consider the worst shot in basketball since it is not a 3-pointer nor a high-percentage shot at the rim. Or, Budenholzer may have defensive stalwart Jrue Holiday play against Paul rather than Devin Booker in Game One. Or, Budenholzer may go back to the drop defense against the pick-and-roll with Brook Lopez playing a little bit higher up the court to challenge the mid-range shot — this was very effective against Trae Young after Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals. I am not sure what Budenholzer will do while acknowledging that he is a far better defensive coach than me (and his critics). Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with one day of rest. Milwaukee should commit fewer personal fouls tonight — the Suns got to the free-throw line 26 times and made 25 of those shots from the charity stripe. The Bucks’ opponent’s free throw attempt to field goal attempt ratio of 16.3% is the lowest in the NBA. Phoenix generated a 29.6% FTA: FGA ratio in Game One — and they average 19 free throw attempts per game. The Suns will not likely have a +16 point edge from the free-throw line tonight. The Suns have played three straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after playing at least three straight Overs. Having Holiday defend Paul may be the preferred adjustment for Budenholzer since Booker’s play has declined a bit as the postseason has moved on. The young star is averaging 23.3 PPG on just 35% shooting from the field and a 22% mark from behind the arc in his last six games. He is averaging 4.3 turnovers per game during that span. Booker’s challenge in this series is heightened with him having to defend either Khris Middleton or Holiday. The season-ending torn ACL injury to Dario Saric leaves the Suns a man-short moving forward. Deandre Ayton cannot play 48 minutes. He will be subbed for either Torrey Craig or Frank Kaminsky, but both present problems for head coach Monty Williams. Craig has played 199 minutes in the playoffs with an On/Off Differential of -12.4. The Suns were outscored by 10 points when he was on the court for Game One. Kaminsky has only played 29 minutes in the playoffs while posting a -3.5 On/Off Differential. Phoenix outscored their opponents by +14.1 points per 100 possessions with Saric on the court this season. He will be missed.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 Games Twos in the NBA playoffs under Budenholzer. 25* NBA Thursday Night Special Feature with Milwaukee Bucks (503) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-21 |
Bucks v. Suns UNDER 219.5 |
|
105-118 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Phoenix Suns (502) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-31) has won two in a row and four of their last five after their 118-107 upset win in Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday to close out that series in six games. Phoenix (63-25) comes off a 130-103 victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1-point favorite last Wednesday to win that series in six games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Milwaukee may not have Giannis Antetokounmpo for this game although he has been upgraded to questionable with the knee injury that kept him out of the final two games of that series. The Bucks won both games without Antetokounmpo — but this team could be in for a letdown now. The Bucks have played 34 of their last 54 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least 10 points. And while Game Six with the Hawks finished Over the 218 point Total, Milwaukee has then played 29 of their last 46 games Under the Total on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Bucks have covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have then played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They go back on the road where the Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games when playing teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 opening games in a new playoff series Under the Total. Phoenix has played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total after a win against a Pacific Division opponent. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing for just the second time in seven days. The Suns made 56.4% of their shots to close out their series with the Clippers last Wednesday — that was the best shooting effort in their last 40 games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on April 19th in Milwaukee with Phoenix upsetting the Bucks, 128-127, as a 3-point underdog. The Bucks have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on their home court — and they have played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home underdog. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Phoenix Suns (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-21 |
Bucks v. Suns -5.5 |
Top |
105-118 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (502) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (63-25) comes off a 130-103 victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1-point favorite last Wednesday to win that series in six games. Milwaukee (58-31) has won two in a row and four of their last five after their 118-107 upset win in Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday to close out that series in six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix should build off their momentum rested and ready on their home court. The Suns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. Phoenix is also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win by 10 or more points on the road. Additionally, the Suns have covered the point spread in 9 straight games after a double-digit win against a fellow Pacific Division rival. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with at least three days of rest. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 50 games — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Suns have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 home games when favored by up to six points. Milwaukee may not have Giannis Antetokounmpo for this game although he has been upgraded to questionable with the knee injury that kept him out of the final two games of that series. The Bucks won both games without Antetokounmpo — but this team could be in for a letdown now. Getting only two days of rest against a team with three extra days to rest and recuperate does not help — and the league did them no favors by moving the start of this series up two days. As it is, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 38 games after winning two in a row. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. They are also 13-27-1 ATS in their last 41 playoff games as an underdog. And in their last 14 opening games to a new playoff series when playing on the road, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on April 19th in Milwaukee with Phoenix upsetting the Bucks, 128-127, as a 3-point underdog. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when avenging a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Tuesday Night Special Feature with the Phoenix Suns (502) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
118-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Atlanta Hawks (562) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (57-31) took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 123-112 win at home against the Hawks as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. Atlanta (51-38) has lost three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks raced out to a 14-point lead at the end of the first quarter by scoring 36 points. 28 of those points were in the paint with Milwaukee catching Atlanta too lax with their interior defense. The Hawks tightened up on defense after that. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have played 29 of their last 45 games Under the Total on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been declared out for tonight’s game — so it will be Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday carrying the offensive load again tonight. They both had big offensive games — Middleton scored 26 points with 13 rebounds and eight assists and Holiday scored 25 points with 13 assists and six rebounds. Brook Lopez also had his best game in the series with 33 points on 14 of 18 shooting. It is unlikely these four players are as effective tonight — especially back on the road in Atlanta. The Under is 5-1-1 in Milwaukee’s last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Atlanta has played 4 straight Unders after a loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Hawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Atlanta returns home where they have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 23-9-1 in the Hawks’ last 33 games in the playoffs as an underdog. Trae Young is listed as questionable with the bone bruise in his foot — he is a game-time decision. I suspect he will try to play in this elimination game but expected him to be close to 100% is probably too optimistic.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 17 of their last 28 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. These two teams have also played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing in Atlanta. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Atlanta Hawks (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks |
Top |
118-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (562) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (561) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (51-38) looks to stave off elimination tonight after dropping Game Five in this series on the road against the Bucks by a 123-112 score as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. Milwaukee (57-31) has won three of the last four games in this series to take a 3-2 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Trae Young is listed as questionable with the bone bruise in his foot — he is a game-time decision. I suspect he will try to play in this elimination game but expected him to be close to 100% is probably too optimistic. But his supporting cast should play better tonight. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in the last four games in this series, the Hawks have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 21 home games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 playoff games when favored. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been declared out for tonight’s game — so it will be Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday carrying the offensive load again tonight. They both had big offensive games — Middleton scored 26 points with 13 rebounds and eight assists and Holiday scored 25 points with 13 assists and six rebounds. Brook Lopez also had his best game in the series with 33 points on 14 of 18 shooting. It is unlikely these four players are as effective tonight — especially back on the road in Atlanta. The Bucks raced out to a 14-point lead at the end of the first quarter by scoring 36 points. 28 of those points were in the paint with Milwaukee catching Atlanta too lax with their interior defense. The Hawks tightened up on defense after that. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after winning four of their last five contests. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the playoffs as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when playing at home and avenging a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Atlanta Hawks (562) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-01-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 216.5 |
|
112-123 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (541) and the Milwaukee Bucks (542) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (51-37) evened this series at 2-2 with their 110-88 upset win at home against the Bucks as a 5.5-point underdog. Milwaukee (56-31) had won the previous two games in this series before losing on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a war of attrition between two flawed basketball teams now facing the challenge of adjusting to significant injuries. I waited for the early afternoon injury updates to make my final calls on this game. Giannis Antetokounmpo was declared out for tonight’s game at 1:30 PM ET with his sore left knee. Trae Young is questionable with the bone bruise in his right foot — he will be a game-time decision. Even if he plays, it remains a separate question as to how effective he will be if less than 100%. The injury updates are only half the news that interests me — how this impacts the line movement on the over/under is the other important dynamic to consider. Atlanta’s secondary players stepped up knowing they would have to be at their best to compensate for the absence of Young. Their 50.6% shooting effort was their best performance in 10 games. A letdown — especially on the road — is likely. The Hawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. On the road, Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better when playing at home. Milwaukee should tighten up on defense after allowing the Hawks to make 50.6% of their shots, the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. The Bucks have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points. Milwaukee has also played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total at home Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Bucks return home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a home favorite.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. With the playoff pressure intensifying, expect a lower-scoring game between these two teams far from 100%. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (541) and the Milwaukee Bucks (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-01-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks -2.5 |
Top |
112-123 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (541) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (56-31) looks to bounce back from their 110-88 upset loss on the road against the Hawks as a 5.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Atlanta (51-37) had lost the previous two games in this series before Game Four.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a war of attrition between two flawed basketball teams now facing the challenge of adjusting to significant injuries. I waited for the early afternoon injury updates to make my final calls on this game. Giannis Antetokounmpo was declared out for tonight’s game at 1:30 PM ET with his sore left knee. Trae Young is questionable with the bone bruise in his right foot — he will be a game-time decision. Even if he plays, it remains a separate question as to how effective he will be if less than 100%. The injury updates are only half the news that interests me — how this impacts the line movement is the other important dynamic to consider. The line is stabilizing with the Bucks favored in the 3-point range — and I think they win this game comfortably by more than one scoring possession. The supporting cast for Milwaukee is better than the supporting cast of the Hawks. Frankly, Khris Middleton may be the team’s best player — or, at least, their most reliable player on the offensive end of the court. He only made 6 of 17 shots on Tuesday — including missing all seven of his 3-pointers — in scoring just 16 points. I’m not saying he is Michael Jordan circa 1993. I think the Bucks are a system team that is well-coached by Mike Budenholzer — and the ankle-biting critics of Budenholzer wildly overrate how good this team (and Antetokounmpo) is in the postseason. Simply put, Middleton and this Bucks team should play better at home — especially after their embarrassing effort on Tuesday. I still think they rally to win Game Four in the second half if not for the Antetokoumpo injury — he left in the third quarter when they had cut their halftime deficit to just 10 points. Milwaukee only made 39.3% of their shots in Game Four which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They only made 8 of their 30 shots (21%) of their shots from behind the arc. They should shoot better tonight — the Bucks shot 48.5% from the field on their home court with a 38.3% mark from behind the arc. Milwaukee should also tighten up on defense after allowing the Hawks to make 50.6% of their shots, the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. The Bucks have bounced back to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 63 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. Milwaukee has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score at least 90 points. The last three games in this series have finished Under the Total — and the Bucks have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games after playing their last two games Under the Total. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. And Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games after winning two of their last three games. Atlanta’s secondary players stepped up knowing they would have to be at their best to compensate for the absence of Young. Their 50.6% shooting effort was their best performance in 10 games. And by holding the Bucks to a 39.3% field goal percentage, they played their best defensive game in their last 11. I suspect that a short-term boost cannot be sustained. And even if Young returns to the court tonight and is close to 100%, I suspect the Hawks to be flat tonight — even (or especially) against a team without Antetokounmpo. We see situations like this all the time in the regular season. As it is, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset win as a home underdog by at least 15 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win as a home underdog by 20 or more points. The injury issues for the Hawks do not end with Young. Clint Capela is questionable with an eye injury. And while Bogan Bogdanovich had his best game in his last seven contests after injuring his right knee by scoring 20 points, he had not scored more than nine points in his previous six games — so he may experience some regression tonight.
FINAL TAKE: Just as the remaining Atlanta players stepped up on Tuesday, I expect the remaining Milwaukee players to play better tonight — especially after being such a disappointment in Game Four. Like the Hawks knew they would be without Young in that game, the Bucks know the onus is on them with Antetokounmpo declared out hours before game-time. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss by 20 or more points. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Game of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-30-21 |
Suns v. Clippers UNDER 215 |
|
130-103 |
Loss |
-107 |
5 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (531) and the Los Angeles Clippers (532) in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (62-25) looks to bounce back from their 116-102 upset loss to the Clippers as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (57-33) still faces elimination tonight, trailing 3-2 in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Phoenix allowed the Clippers to make 54.8% of their shots in Game Five which was the worst defensive effort in their last 21 games. The Suns have only suffered back-to-back losses four times all season — so a better effort on the defensive end of the court should be coming tonight. Phoenix has played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Suns have also played 18 of their last 25 games on the road Under the Total after a loss on their home court. Phoenix goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Under is also 9-4-1 in their last 14 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Los Angeles had their best shooting effort in their last five games with their 54.8% shooting percentage on Monday. But the Clippers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. Los Angeles returns to the Staples Center where the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games. The Clippers have also played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total when playing in Los Angeles. Phoenix has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss where they were favored by at least 7 points. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (5
|
06-30-21 |
Suns v. Clippers |
Top |
130-103 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (531) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (532) in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (62-25) looks to bounce back from their 116-102 upset loss to the Clippers as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (57-33) still faces elimination tonight, trailing 3-2 in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Phoenix allowed the Clippers to make 54.8% of their shots in Game Five which was the worst defensive effort in their last 21 games. The Suns have only suffered back-to-back losses four times all season — so a better effort should be coming tonight. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Suns have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by 10 or more points. They go back on the road where they have won five of their seven games in the postseason — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They should get more out of Deandre Ayton tonight after the big man only attempted nine shots on Monday. He had been averaging 20.3 Points-Per-Game in the first four games in this series while tallying at least 18 points and 13 shot attempts in all four games. The Suns are 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the playoffs when favored. Los Angeles had their best shooting effort in their last five games with their 54.8% shooting percentage on Monday. But the Clippers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a double-digit win. Furthermore, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset victory by 10 or more points. We had the Clippers as an underdog in Game Five — but this remains a team dealing with more and more injuries. Losing Kawhi Leonard is very tough — and big man Ivica Zubac did not play due to a sprained MCL injury. He is questionable tonight. Paul George is carrying the team — but fatigue is becoming an issue. His 735 minutes played in the postseason are the most of any player in these playoffs. He logged in at least 40 minutes for the fourth straight time on Monday. Now Los Angeles returns home to the Staples Center where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games when motivated by revenge. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (531) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-21 |
Bucks -6.5 v. Hawks |
|
88-110 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (521) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (522) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (56-30) took a 2-1 lead in this series with their 113-102 win as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Atlanta (50-37) has lost the last two games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Hawks were cruising with a 95-88 lead with just 7:20 left in the game. But Atlanta would only score seven points the rest of the game with their offense almost completely drying up after Trae Young’s inopportune ankle injury after accidentally stepping on the foot of a referee. He is questionable to play tonight. While my best guess is that he tries to play, the mystery is how effective will he be? His game is dependent on his lateral movement. He only took four shots in the fourth quarter, making one, with just three points, and Milwaukee outscoring Atlanta by 15 points when he was on the court. He was merely a decoy in the waning minutes of the game — that speaks loudly. The Hawks are looking more and more like a M*A*S*H unit. They are already hampered by Bogdan Bogdanovic and his knee injury. After scoring 16.4 PPG with 5.9 Rebounds-Per-Game in the first nine playoff games this postseason, he has not scored more than nine points nor pulled down more than four rebounds in his last six playoff games. After making only 3 of 16 shots on Sunday, Bogdanovic has made only 7 of his 28 shot attempts in this series. The Hawks have already lost their best on-the-ball defender Deandre Hunter who was vital in defending Julius Randle in their opening-round series against New York. This team is on the rise — but they simply do not have the roster depth to survive all these injuries. Atlanta has averaged only 96.5 PPG in the last two games in this series. They have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 57 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Milwaukee is a flawed basketball team — but they have a system that works usually under head coach Mike Budenholzer and they consistently play outstanding defense. They have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 playoff games when leading in a playoff series — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 Game Fours in a series.
FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have a big edge in playoff experience against the Hawks — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings against them. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Milwaukee Bucks (521) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 219 |
Top |
88-110 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Atlanta Hawks (522) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (56-30) took a 2-1 lead in this series with their 113-102 win as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Atlanta (50-37) has lost the last two games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks were cruising with a 95-88 lead with just 7:20 left in the game. But Atlanta would only score seven points the rest of the game with their offense almost completely drying up after Trae Young’s inopportune ankle injury after accidentally stepping on the foot of a referee. He is questionable to play tonight. While my best guess is that he tries to play, the mystery is how effective will he be? His game is dependent on his lateral movement. He only took four shots in the fourth quarter, making one, with just three points, and Milwaukee outscoring Atlanta by 15 points when he was on the court. He was merely a decoy in the waning minutes of the game — that speaks loudly. The Hawks are looking more and more like a M*A*S*H unit. They are already hampered by Bogdan Bogdanovic and his knee injury. After scoring 16.4 PPG with 5.9 Rebounds-Per-Game in the first nine playoff games this postseason, he has not scored more than nine points nor pulled down more than four rebounds in his last six playoff games. After making only 3 of 16 shots on Sunday, Bogdanovic has made only 7 of his 28 shot attempts in this series. Atlanta has averaged only 96.5 PPG in the last two games in this series. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Hawks have played 6 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in the playoffs. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They stay on the road where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games when favored — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 road games when playing teams with a winning record at home. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 5 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has lost the last two games by 34 and 11 points — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging two straight games by 10 or more points. These two teams have also played 4 straight Unders when playing in Atlanta. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Atlanta Hawks (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-21 |
Clippers +6 v. Suns |
|
116-102 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (511) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (512) in Game Five of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (56-33) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing Game Four by an 84-80 score on Sunday as a 1-point underdog. Phoenix (62-24) has won ten of their last eleven games to take the 3-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Clippers only made 32.5% of their shots on Sunday despite them scoring at 120.8 points per 100 possession clip in the playoffs. This has been a resilient team that has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a loss by six points or less. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in a decisive 45 of their last 67 games after a straight-up loss. The Clippers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 26 road games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Phoenix only made 36.0% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 41 games. The Suns’ 84 points came after them scoring just 92 points in Game Three — so this looks to be more than just a bad shooting night. Devin Booker does not look comfortable wearing the face mask to protect his broken nose — and he may be tiring from the playoff grind in his first postseason as a professional. Chris Paul still looks rusty after being out with COVID. Cameron Payne is slowed with an ankle injury — he played only 20 minutes on Sunday and made only 2 of his 8 shots from the field. Phoenix only made 38.9% of their shots in Game Three — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after not making at least 39% of their shots in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles added Ivica Zubac to their injury report this afternoon with a sprained right knee. Hopefully, he can still play — but the point spread is adjusting. If he cannot go, it likely means more playing time for Nicolas Batum who played an important role in the Dallas and Utah series. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when avenging a loss at home. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Clippers (511) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-21 |
Clippers v. Suns UNDER 214.5 |
Top |
116-102 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512) in Game Five of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (56-33) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing Game Four by an 84-80 score on Sunday as a 1-point underdog. Phoenix (62-24) has won ten of their last eleven games to take the 3-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers only made 32.5% of their shots on Sunday — so was that an outlier or indicative of a downward trend? I suspect it is the latter. This Los Angeles team is tired — both physically from the every-other-day grind of the NBA playoffs and emotionally for having dug itself three straight 0-2 series holes. Without Kawhi Leonard, Paul George has taken the leadership role on offense — and he is averaging 40.9 minutes per game in the playoffs which is almost seven more minutes per game than his regular-season average. The Clippers are only making 34.8% of their 3-point shot attempts in this series, a far cry from their 41.8% clip during the regular season. Los Angeles has tired legs — and the Suns are forcing them to take more difficult shots from behind the arc. The Clippers have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss at home against a Pacific Division rival. The Under is also 13-6-1 in their last 20 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, LA has played 4 straight Unders after failing to crack 90 points in their last game. The Clippers are averaging 120.8 points per 100 possessions in the postseason — but they are down to just 109.4 points per 100 possessions against Phoenix. Los Angeles has played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog — and the Under is 35-17-3 in their last 55 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Phoenix has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win against a Pacific Division rival — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a divisional rival. The Suns have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Phoenix only made 36.0% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 41 games. The Suns’ 84 points came after them scoring just 92 points in Game Three — so this looks to be more than just a bad shooting night. Devin Booker does not look comfortable wearing the face mask to protect his broken nose — and he may be tiring from the playoff grind in his first postseason as a professional. Chris Paul still looks rusty after being out with COVID. Cameron Payne is slowed with an ankle injury — he played only 20 minutes on Sunday and made only 2 of his 8 shots from the field. Phoenix returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The 164 combined points finished over 50 points below the 217.5 total set for Game Four. The empirical data suggests another lower-scoring game is coming. In games with the Total set at 210 or higher, when a team with a winning percentage in the 60 to 75% range faces a team with a winning record after a game that finished at least 36 points below the Total, this game finished Under the Total in 52 of the last 73 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 224.5 |
|
113-102 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Atlanta Hawks (502) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (55-30) evened this series at 1-1 with their 125-91 victory at home as an 8-point favorite on Friday. Atlanta (50-36) had their two-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks shot 52.1% shooting percentage from the field in Game Two which was the best shooting effort in their last 14 games. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after covering four or five of their last six games. They head back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 20 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s. The Under is also 7-2-1 in the Bucks’ last 10 road games against teams with a winning record. The Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when they are favored. Atlanta allowed the Bucks to make 52.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Hawks made only 41.5% of their shots with Trae Young struggling by making only 6 of 16 shots including just 1 of his 8 shots from behind the arc for 15 points. He struggled with Milwaukee’s adjustment to pick-and-roll coverage that played higher-up on him to take away the floaters that burned them in Game One. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 21 of their last 33 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Hawks’ Bogan Bogdanovic has struggled since suffering a knee injury in Game Six of their series with Philadelphia. He has not scored more than 9 points in four straight games despite being Atlanta’s primary scoring option after Young. The Hawks return home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. Atlanta has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. The Hawks have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by 30 or more points. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Atlanta Hawks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks +4.5 |
Top |
113-102 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (502) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (50-36) looks to bounce back from their 125-91 loss to the Bucks as an 8-point underdog in Game Two on Friday. Milwaukee (55-30) has won three of their last four games and evened this series at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta allowed the Bucks to make 52.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games after a loss on the road. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Hawks started slow (or failed to thwart the inevitable fast start from Milwaukee after they lost home-court advantage in Game One) — after trailing by six points at the end of the first quarter, they were blitzed in the second quarter by a 43-17 margin to go into halftime by a 77-45 score. Atlanta has responded from a half-time deficit of 15 or more points by covering the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games next time out. Despite the lazy and tired reputation for never making adjustments, Bucks’ head coach Mike Budenholzer made yet another change in tactics in this game by having Brook Lopez confront Trae Young higher up the court on pick-and-roll switches. This took away Young’s floater game. The Hawks’ counter requires help from his teammates — but Young only had three assists. His nine turnovers were too many — but returning home should help where his teammates tend to shoot the basketball with more proficiency. Coaches become tactical geniuses or idiots often based on how often the shots finally fall. Atlanta shoots 46.4% from the field and makes 36.6% of their 3-pointers — and those numbers improve to a 47.1% mark along with a 38.7% clip from behind the arc when they are playing at home. Look for more from Kevin Huerter who scored only 21 combined points in the first two games of this series in Milwaukee. He poured in 44 points in the final two games in the Philadelphia series. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Milwaukee’s 52.1% shooting percentage was the best shooting effort in their last 14 games. But the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win at home by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory by at least 30 points. Milwaukee has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games on the road after winning two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games after winning three of four. Now the Bucks go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 41 games with the Total set in the 220s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Milwaukee has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. The Hawks have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games when avenging a loss of 30 or more points. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Year with the Atlanta Hawks (502) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-21 |
Suns v. Clippers OVER 218 |
|
84-80 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (591) and the Los Angeles Clippers (592) in Game Four of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (61-24) had their nine-game winning streak in the postseason snapped in a 106-92 upset loss on the road against the Clippers as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (56-32) has won five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Phoenix made only 38.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 40 games. Chris Paul returned to the court after completing his COVID quarantine but he was rusty by making only 5 of 19 shots. Devin Booker made only 5 of 21 shots while looking uncomfortable wearing the mask he will have to get comfortable with after breaking his nose in the last game. To compound matters, Cameron Payne suffered a left ankle sprain which limited him to just 4:19 minutes played. Phoenix should back to their 114.4 PPG scoring average tonight. Paul will be better with another two days of work to get back into his routine. Booker will get used to the mask — this has rarely been a hindrance for superstars once they get acclimated to the appliance (Rip Hamilton liked it so much that he kept wearing it after his face injury healed when he was leading Detroit Pistons to a title in the 1990s). Payne is listed as probable to play tonight. The Suns have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. They stay on the road where they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a road favorite. Los Angeles played their best game on defense in their last 12 games by holding the Suns to just 38.9% shooting. They have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a double-digit win against a Pacific Division rival. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. The Clippers have also played 13 of their last 17 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog including their last four games.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 10* NBA Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (591) and the Los Angeles Clippers (592). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-21 |
Suns -1 v. Clippers |
Top |
84-80 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (591) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (592) in Game Four of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (61-24) had their nine-game winning streak in the postseason snapped in a 106-92 upset loss on the road against the Clippers as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (56-32) has won five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINT(S): Phoenix made only 38.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 40 games. Chris Paul returned to the court after completing his COVID quarantine but he was rusty by making only 5 of 19 shots. Devin Booker made only 5 of 21 shots while looking uncomfortable wearing the mask he will have to get comfortable with after breaking his nose in the last game. To compound matters, Cameron Payne suffered a left ankle sprain which limited him to just 4:19 minutes played. Phoenix should bounce back tonight. They have only lost back-to-back games four times this season. Paul will be better with another two days of work to get back into his routine. Booker will get used to the mask — this has rarely been a hindrance for superstars once they get acclimated to the appliance (Rip Hamilton liked it so much that he kept wearing it after his face injury healed when he was leading Detroit Pistons to a title in the 1990s). Payne is listed as probable to play tonight. The Suns have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, the Suns have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after a point spread loss. And while Phoenix has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. They are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games when favored. Los Angeles played their best game on defense in their last 12 games by holding the Suns to just 38.9% shooting. But the Clippers are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a double-digit win. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win as a home dog. Despite the triumph in Game Three, there are too many cracks in the armor for this team in what is essentially in a pick ‘em situation tonight. Kawhi Leonard is not likely to play again this postseason. Paul George is carrying the load — but he is logging a ton of minutes. He leads all players in the postseason with 653 minutes played and he has been required to play at least 40 minutes in six of his last eight games. The canary in the coal mine may have been his six turnovers in the final 14 minutes of Game Three. Marcus Morris is playing hurt. DeMarcus Cousins is unplayable since he will get burned on the pick-and-roll. And the Clippers continue to have no answer for Deandre Ayton who is scoring 20.7 PPG on 73.8% shooting in this series. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when avenging a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (591) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (592). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-25-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 |
|
91-125 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (582) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (581) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (54-30) looks to bounce back from their 116-113 upset loss to the Hawks in Game One of this series as an 8.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Atlanta (50-35) has won four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee had a seven-point lead with four minutes to go and looked in position to win and cover the point spread in Game One. But the Bucks failed to close while getting beaten on the defensive glass with Atlanta pulling down five offensive rebounds which resulted in seven second-chance points. Milwaukee has no business getting beat on the glass against this Hawks team. The Bucks entered this series leading all teams in the postseason with a rebounding rate of 53.8% — and the Hawks’ 48.8% rebounding rate is the fourth-worst in the playoffs. Milwaukee allowed Atlanta to make 49.5% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Bucks should tighten things up on that end of the court tonight. Mike “Never Makes Adjustments” Budenholzer only played Brook Lopez for just eight minutes in the second half with him on the bench for the final 16 minutes of the game. Lopez was getting burned playing drop defense in the pick-and-roll against Trae Young who was torching him with floaters — but Budenholzer’s move to a small lineup with Antetokounmpo playing the five helped to limit Young to making just two of his eight floaters in the second half. Expect more smaller lineups from Budenholzer tonight. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with one day of rest. Khris Middleton should play better tonight after making only 6 of 23 shots and missing all nine of his shots from downtown. The Bucks only made 8 of their 26 shots (30.8%) from 3-point range — they should improve on that tonight. They have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 62 home games with the Total set in the 220 to 229.5 point range — including eight of these last thirteen situations. Atlanta has pulled off two straight upsets after beating Philadelphia on the road in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Semifinals — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after upsetting their opponents in two straight games. The Hawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two in a row on the road. While Young carried Atlanta on Wednesday, Bogan Bogdanovich continues to struggle with his injured knee — he scored only four points on 1 of 6 shooting in just 27 minutes. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points including six of these last eight situations. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 37 road games with the Total set in the 220 to 229.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 Game Twos in a playoff series including five of their last seven. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Milwaukee Bucks (582) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (581). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-25-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226.5 |
|
91-125 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (581) and the Milwaukee Bucks (582) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (50-35) took a 1-0 lead in this series with their 116-113 upset victory on the road against the Bucks as an 8.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Milwaukee (54-30) has still won four of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks shot 49.5% from the field in Game One which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. It will be difficult for Trae Young to replicate his 48-point effort. He was thriving in the midrange making 13 of his 21 shots inside the arc while taking advantage of the Bucks’ drop coverage on pick-and-rolls. That game was the worst defensive effort for Milwaukee in their last six games. The Bucks should tighten things up on that end of the court tonight. Mike “Never Makes Adjustments (according to his lazy critics)” Budenholzer only played Brook Lopez for just eight minutes in the second half with him on the bench for the final 16 minutes of the game. Lopez was getting burned playing drop defense in the pick-and-roll against Trae Young who was torching him with floaters — but Budenholzer’s move to a small lineup with Antetokounmpo playing the five helped to limit Young to making just two of his eight floaters in the second half. Expect more smaller lineups from Budenholzer tonight. Atlanta has pulled off two straight upset wins after beating Philadelphia on the road in Game Seven in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Hawks have played 10 straight road games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upsets on the road. Atlanta has also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. Milwaukee has played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Bucks have also played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has played 8 of their last 11 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series — including their last four. The Under is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games when favored. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when leading in the series. These two teams have also played 4 of their last meetings Under the Total. 10* NBA Atlanta-Milwaukee TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (581) and the Milwaukee Bucks (582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-24-21 |
Suns -1 v. Clippers |
|
92-106 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (571) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (572) in Game Three of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (61-23) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 104-103 victory as a 3-point favorite on Tuesday. Los Angeles (55-32) trails by an 0-2 mark in a playoff series for the third straight time this postseason.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINT(S): Phoenix is on a roll with nine straight victories in these playoffs — and now they get Chris Paul back to provide his court leadership and on-the-ball defense. The Suns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. Phoenix won Game Two despite shooting 50% from the field which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. In allowing the Clippers to make 45% of their shots, they played their worst defensive game in their last three contests. The Suns may have an insurmountable edge in Deandre Ayton who Los Angeles does not have an answer for down low. Ayton is averaging 22 PPG on 75.9% shooting while pulling down 11.5 Rebounds-Per-Game in this series. Only Ivica Zubac has come close to slowing down Ayton. DeMarcus Cousins has a -38.2 Net Rating when he is on the court in this series with the Suns scoring at 138.2 points per 100 possession rate. If Zubac gets into foul trouble, Los Angeles may not have a suitable alternative to Cousins. Phoenix goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. I just don’t like the position Los Angeles has put themselves in again. They had Kawhi Leonard for the previous two Game Threes.
|
06-24-21 |
Suns v. Clippers OVER 221 |
|
92-106 |
Loss |
-102 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572) in Game Three of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (61-23) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 104-103 victory as a 3-point favorite on Tuesday. Los Angeles (55-32) trails by an 0-2 mark in a playoff series for the third straight time this postseason.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Phoenix won Game Two despite shooting 50% from the field which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. The Suns may have an insurmountable edge in Deandre Ayton who Los Angeles does not have an answer for down low. Ayton is averaging 22 PPG on 75.9% shooting while pulling down 11.5 Rebounds-Per-Game in this series. Only Ivica Zubac has come close to slowing down Ayton. DeMarcus Cousins has a -38.2 Net Rating when he is on the court in this series with the Suns scoring at 138.2 points per 100 possession rate. If Zubac gets into foul trouble, Los Angeles may not have a suitable alternative to Cousins. And if the Clippers are playing Zubac, that means more points for both teams. Los Angeles has scored 116 points per 100 possessions with Zubac on the court in this series. The Over is 11-5-1 in the Suns’ last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Now they go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Los Angeles only made 45% of their shots on Tuesday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last seven games. Paul George has made only 11 of his 29 shots in this series and Marcus Morris has made just 3 of his 13 shots — both should play better back on their home court. The Clippers have played 4 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less. The Clippers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by three points or less. 10* NBA Phoenix-LA Clippers ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-23-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks -7 |
|
116-113 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (562) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (561) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (54-29) has won four of their last five games after rallying from a 3-2 deficit to defeat Brooklyn by a 115-111 score as a 2-point favorite in Game 7 on Saturday. Atlanta (49-35) has won three of their last four games after their 103-96 upset win at Philadelphia as a 4-point underdog in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee outlasted the Nets despite making only 43.9% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. The Bucks should build off their momentum from upsetting Brooklyn. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset victory as a road underdog. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 220s — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games when laying 6.5 to 12 points. While there is a cottage industry of folks thinking they are better head coaches than Mike Budenholzer because he doesn’t make enough “adjustments”, the veteran head coach in his third Conference Finals does not get enough credit for his defensive tactics. The Bucks are holding their playoff opponents to 105.0 points per 100 possessions — and these opponents have just a 51.2% effective field percentage in the playoffs. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset win on the road in their last game. Now they stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games when an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 36 road games with the Total set in the 220s. The Hawks are dealing with injuries to open this series. Bogan Bogdanovich is a game-time-decision with the knee injury that limited him to only seven points in the last three games of that series. Kevin Huerter is probable but he is dealing with an ankle. And Atlanta is already without DeAndre Hunter for the rest of the season who would have drawn the defensive assignment to defend Khris Middleton.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta lacks deep playoff experience — and that may rear its ugly head when this team transitioning from a triumphant seven-game series on the road to the blank slate of an Eastern Conference Finals. Milwaukee has been knocking on the door to reach the NBA Finals for the last few seasons. Those experiences should help them comfortably pull away to win Game One. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Milwaukee Bucks (562) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-23-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 227 |
|
116-113 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (561) and the Milwaukee Bucks (562) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (49-35) has won three of their last four games after their 103-96 upset win at Philadelphia as a 4-point underdog in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. Milwaukee (54-29) has won four of their last five games after rallying from a 3-2 deficit to defeat Brooklyn by a 115-111 score as a 2-point favorite in Game 7 on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Atlanta has also played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total after an upset victory. And in their last 31 games after winning two of their last three games, the Hawks have played 20 of these games Under the Total. Atlanta stays on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total. And in their last 21 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, the Hawks have played 14 of these games Under the Total. Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. While there is a cottage industry of folks thinking they are better head coaches than Mike Budenholzer because he doesn’t make enough “adjustments”, the veteran head coach in his third Conference Finals does not get enough credit for his defensive tactics. The Bucks are holding their playoff opponents to 105.0 points per 100 possessions — and these opponents have just a 51.2% effective field percentage in the playoffs. But the Milwaukee offense struggled against a suspect Brooklyn defense last round — they scored at just a 101.9 points per 100 possession rate. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 games at home Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new playoff series Under the Total. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 10* NBA Atlanta-Milwaukee TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (561) and the Milwaukee Bucks (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-22-21 |
Clippers +5.5 v. Suns |
|
103-104 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (551) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (552) in Game Two of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (55-31) looks to bounce-back from their 120-114 loss on the road against the Suns in Game One as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Phoenix (60-23) has won eight games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles had an off-day shooting on Sunday as they made only 45.5% of their shots from the field which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last six games. They also allowed the Suns to make 55.1% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. Even without Kawhi Leonard, the Clippers should tighten up on defense tonight. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 120 points in their last contest. Additionally, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a loss on the road to a fellow Pacific Division rival. Paul George is proving he can lead this team without Leonard on the court. He is scoring 32.2 PPG in his last five games (one with Leonard) with 5.2 Assists-Per-Game, 8.2 Rebounds-Per-Game, and a 44.9% shooting mark from behind the arc. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games with the Total set at 120 or higher. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games when trailing in the series. Phoenix had their best shooting performance in their last 12 games with their 55.1% shooting clip on Sunday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. The Suns have now covered the point spread in eight straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in at least seven straight games. This is the game that this young Phoenix team may really miss Chris Paul who remains in COVID quarantine. While the team still has a playoff veteran in Jae Crowder on the court, most of the remaining players in the rotation lacked any playoff experience before this season. These Game Twos on your home court after winning Game One can be tricky — even wily vets can get up thinking they will cruise to a 2-0 series lead. Even without Leonard, this Clippers’ team is loaded with veterans with playoff experience.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 41 of their last 67 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Clippers (551) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-20-21 |
Hawks v. 76ers -6.5 |
|
103-96 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (534) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (533) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (56-27) forced a climactic seventh game in this series with their 104-99 win on the road against the Hawks as a 2.5-point road favorite on Friday. Atlanta (48-35) has lost three of the last five games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: After their blistering first half in the opening game of this series where the Hawks made 63.4% of their shots, Atlanta has never come close to replicating that mark. They have not made more than 45.9% of their shots in five of the next six games — and they only made 41.2% of their shots on Friday despite playing on their home court. While Trae Young has been scintillating with a 30.3 PPG scoring average along with an 11.0 Assists-Per-Game mark, the problem for the Hawks is that he is not getting much help. No other play is averaging more than 2.5 Assists-Per-Game. Bogan Bogdanovich had being been a reliable number two in the first four games of this series with a 19 PPG scoring average and a 36.1% clip from bending the arc, he has only averaged 6.5 PPG in the last two games while making only 1 of his 10 shots from 3-point range. And now Bogdanovich is questionable with a knee injury for this game. Young needs more help. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They go back to Philadelphia for Game Seven where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of at least 60% at home. The Hawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Philadelphia. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a narrow win by six points or less. They blew 18-point leads in Game Four and Five before playing for the full 48 minutes on Friday. Atlanta found success pushing the pace to tire out Joel Embiid — but the length of this series may be neutralizing Atlanta’s ability to outrun and outlast the Sixers. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games when favored. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia 76ers (534) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (533). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-20-21 |
Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
103-96 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (48-35) has lost three of the last five games in this series after their 104-99 loss on the road against the 76ers on Friday as a 2.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (56-27) had lost the last two games in this series before forcing a Game Seven with the win in Game Six.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After their blistering first half in the opening game of this series where the Hawks made 63.4% of their shots, Atlanta has never come close to replicating that mark. They have not made more than 45.9% of their shots in five of the next six games — and they only made 41.2% of their shots on Friday despite playing on their home court. While Trae Young has been scintillating with a 30.3 PPG scoring average along with an 11.0 Assists-Per-Game mark, the problem for the Hawks is that he is not getting much help. No other play is averaging more than 2.5 Assists-Per-Game. Bogan Bogdanovich had being been a reliable number two in the first four games of this series with a 19 PPG scoring average and a 36.1% clip from bending the arc, he has only averaged 6.5 PPG in the last two games while making only 1 of his 10 shots from 3-point range. And now Bogdanovich is questionable with a knee injury for this game. Young needs more help. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They go back to Philadelphia for Game Seven where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. The Hawks have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the playoffs as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. After scoring at least 118 points in each of the first three games of this series, the Sixers have not scored more than 106 points in the next three games. That downtrend coincides with the slide in Joel Embiid’s play as he continues to manage with the right meniscus tear in his knee. Embiid scored only 22 points on 37.5% shooting on Friday. Philadelphia is favored to win this game and move on to the NBA Eastern Conference Finals — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have played 3 of their last 4 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination. Atlanta has played 17 of their last 22 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination in their history — and they have played 16 of their last 17 playoff games Under the Total in closeout games. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-20-21 |
Clippers v. Suns -4 |
|
114-120 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 3:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (536) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (535) in Game One of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (59-23) takes the court again for the first time since last Sunday when they completed their four-game sweep on the road against Denver as a 6-point favorite. Los Angeles (55-30) has won four games in a row with their 131-119 upset win against Utah on Friday as a 2.5-point home underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: The Clippers will not have Kawhi Leonard at least for the first two games in this series with his knee injury that threatens to keep him out the rest of the postseason. Paul George stepped up in his absence to average 32.5 PPG and 12.5 Rebounds-Per-Game in the final two games of that series. Frankly, I think that series spoke more to the Utah Jazz being completely exposed when Tyronn Lue went small to expose Utah’s reliance on Rudy Gobert protecting the rim since the small-line lineup required him to defend the perimeter. The Jazz had no answer for that (why not try a zone defense to keep Gobert in the middle? Quin Snyder would know better than me). The Clippers nailed 56.5% of their shots on Friday which was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. Los Angeles faces a different challenge now — and going small may not be as effective in this series since (a) Deandre Ayton is a more agile perimeter defender than Gobert and (b) the Suns’ defense is not as dependent on his rim protection to anchor their defense. After two straight upset victories, Los Angeles may be due for an emotional letdown with the opportunity to exhale.
|
06-19-21 |
Bucks v. Nets +0.5 |
|
115-111 |
Loss |
-113 |
4 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (522) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (521) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (55-28) looks to rebound from their 104-89 loss on the road against the Bucks as a 5.5-point underdog on Thursday. Milwaukee (53-29) has won three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Brooklyn earned the luxury of having a game in hand with their 114-108 victory at home against the Bucks in Game Five with Kevin Durant proving he is the best player in this series with his historic 49-point performance. In an expected close game, Durant should outduel Antetokounmpo — and he has the help of James Harden who played better on Thursday. The Nets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Brooklyn has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the playoffs when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Milwaukee may have rallied from an 0-2 deficit in this series but they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after winning three of their last four games. Khris Middleton stepped on Thursday by scoring 37 points on 11 of 16 shooting from the field. Middleton nailed 5 of his 8 shots from behind the arc — but the telling stat is that his teammates made only 2 of their 25 shots from downtown. Now the Bucks go back on the road where Middleton has made only 21 of his 65 shots (32.3%) in this series. Milwaukee has made only 27 of their 89 shots (30.3%) from behind the arc in this series. Jrue Holiday is not having a good series as he is averaging only 15.5 PPG on 40.5% shooting. And then there is Giannis Antetokounmpo who is scoring nice numbers when able to pad his stats as a frontrunner when his team has the lead, but he has disappointed in clutch situations and he has only made 21 of his 46 (45.7%) free throws in the series. Now the Bucks go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee is just 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games in the playoffs as a dog. With all the demons that the Bucks have faced in the last few years from playoff disappointments along with a superstar in Giannis Antetokounmpo lacking in confidence, look for Milwaukee to find a way to lose this game. 10* NBA Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Brooklyn Nets (522) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-19-21 |
Bucks v. Nets UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
115-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Brooklyn Nets (522) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (53-29) forced a decisive seventh game in this series on Thursday with their 104-89 victory at home as a 5-point favorite. Brooklyn (55-28) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Khris Middleton stepped on Thursday by scoring 37 points on 11 of 16 shooting from the field. Middleton nailed 5 of his 8 shots from behind the arc — but the telling stat is that his teammates made only 2 of their 25 shots from downtown. Now the Bucks go back on the road where Middleton has made only 21 of his 65 shots (32.3%) in this series. Milwaukee has made only 27 of their 89 shots (30.3%) from behind the arc in this series. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog overall — and they have played 4 straight playoff games Under the Total when getting the points. Milwaukee is playing elite-level defense in this series. Going into Game Six, the Bucks held Brooklyn to just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series — and then they held the Nets to only 89 points. Brooklyn is averaging only — and they are averaging just 107 PPG against the Bucks in this series. The Nets are averaging only 103.7 PPG in this series —and they have not scored more than 96 points in three of their last four games in this series. Despite posting a historical 118.3 Offensive Rating in the regular season (and despite injuries to Durant, Harden, and Kyrie Irving) before a 130.1 Offensive Rating in their first-round playoff series with Boston, the Nets had just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series before Game Six. The Under is 34-16-1 in Milwaukee’s last 51 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. While there is now an entire cottage industry of NBA “experts” who think they could get more out of this Bucks’ team than Mike Budenholzer because they have thoughts on how they would better deploy his rotation patterns, Budenholzer has coached amazing results on the defensive end of the court in this series. Brooklyn has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 90 points in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-1 in the Nets’ last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a loss by 10 or more points. For the second-straight game, Brooklyn trailed at halftime by double-digits. They were in the hole by a 59-48 score on Thursday after trailing, 59-43, on Tuesday. The Nets have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after trailing by 10 or more points at halftime in their last two games. They return home where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games. Brooklyn has also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams stumbling into the finals with major question marks from their star offensive players. Kevin Durant was sublime in Game Five — but playing every minute on Tuesday seemed to sap his energy on Thursday as he only got to the free throw line twice while committing seven turnovers and missing six of his eight shots from 3-point land. James Harden is not close to 100%. Joe Harris is making only 30.9% of his 3-pointers in this series after leading the NBA in 3-point shooting with a 47.5% clip. Middleton is struggling away from home — and Jrue Holiday is not having a good series as he is averaging only 15.5 PPG on 40.5% shooting. And then there is Giannis Antetokounmpo who is scoring nice numbers when able to pad his stats as a frontrunner when his team has the lead, but he has disappointed in clutch situations and he has only made 21 of his 46 (45.7%) free throws in the series. The Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 games between these two teams in Brooklyn. 25* NBA 2nd Round Saturday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Brooklyn Nets (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-18-21 |
Jazz -1 v. Clippers |
|
119-131 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (513) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (514) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (58-24) has lost the last three games of this series after getting upset by a 119-111 score as an 8-point underdog on Wednesday. Los Angeles (54-30) has won five of their last seven games with the opportunity to close out this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Facing the adversity of Kawhi Leonard likely out for the rest of the playoffs (at least the rest of this series), the Clippers stepped up with perhaps the best game in the franchise’s history with that upset victory while most of the world wrote them off. Paul George was “playoff P” with 37 points, 16 rebounds, and five assists in leading his team to victory. But there was a reason why this team was being written off. The pressure was gone on Wednesday — but now expectations have risen dramatically for this team, especially as they return home to the Staples Center with the opportunity to close out this series. Los Angeles has only covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when leading in the playoff series — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 playoff games in close-out situations. Marcus Morris also overachieved on Wednesday with his 25 points which were a career-high for him in the playoffs. Will George and Morris approach those numbers again? The Clippers score 10.3 fewer points per 100 possessions without Leonard on the court. 119 points and 51.2% shooting are unlikely to be on the LA boxscore again tonight. The Clippers are likely due for a visit from the Regression Gods on offense, as is, after posting 142.0, 130.4, and 127.9 Offensive Ratings in their last three games. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Utah has not covered the point spread in three straight games in this series — but they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games including four of these six circumstances this season. The Jazz have disappointed their supporters by losing three straight games in this series after playing so well in the first two games of this series. Utah misses Michael Conley — and the ankle injury to Donovan Mitchell seems to be impacting his game. But this is a team that can get hot from 3-point range — and they can playing stifling defense. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road when favored. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 playoff games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 48 games with the Total set in the 220 to 229.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Utah has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 playoff games when trailing in the series — and they have covered the point spread in all 3 of their playoff games when facing elimination under head coach Quin Snyder. The Jazz have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the Staples Center against the Clippers. 25* NBA 2nd Round ESPN Playoff Game of the Year with the Utah Jazz (513) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-18-21 |
Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 221 |
|
119-131 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (513) and the Los Angeles Clippers (514) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (58-24) has lost the last three games of this series after getting upset by a 119-111 score as an 8-point underdog on Wednesday. Los Angeles (54-30) has won five of their last seven games with the opportunity to close out this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Utah has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Jazz have not covered the point spread in three straight games in this series — but not only have they played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games, but they have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in three straight games. Utah misses Michael Conley as a second playmaker in this series and to take some of the pressure off Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell’s productivity has declined as the series has moved on — he made only 6 of his 19 shots on Wednesday and is shooting under 40% in the series after Game Two. The Jazz have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when facing elimination in a playoff series. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They return home where the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Clippers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Utah has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing with triple revenge. 10* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (513) and the Los Angeles Clippers (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-18-21 |
76ers -2 v. Hawks |
|
104-99 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (511) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (512) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (55-27) has suffered two straight upset losses in this series after losing to the Hawks at home by a 109-106 score as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. Atlanta (48-34) can close out this series tonight with their 3-2 lead in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philly started fast by making 17 of their 30 shots from behind the arc in the first half which helped them take a 62-40 halftime lead. While the second-half collapse was soul-crushing, look for this veteran group to pick themselves up tonight with this opportunity for redemption. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss at home. Philly has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after owning a lead by 20 or more points in the first half of their last game. The Sixers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two of their last three games. They go back on the road where they are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 road games when favored. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games when trailing in the series. Atlanta has put themselves in a position to pull the upset in this series — but they lack experience in closing out big playoff series. This is a franchise that is just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after pulling off two straight upsets. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win on the road by three points or less. The Hawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. The Sixers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia 76ers (511) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-18-21 |
76ers v. Hawks UNDER 224 |
Top |
104-99 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Atlanta Hawks (512) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (55-27) has suffered two straight upset losses in this series after losing to the Hawks at home by a 109-106 score as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. Atlanta (48-34) can close out this series tonight with their 3-2 lead in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers took a 62-40 lead going into halftime but their shooting got ice cold as they made only 3 of their 24 shots from behind the arc in the final 24 minutes to blow that game. While it is easy to blame the offense, Doc Rivers’ team allowed the Hawks to score 40 points in the fourth quarter to steal Game Five. In general, Philadelphia has played outstanding defense after getting blitzed in the first half of the first game of this series. Since Game One, the Sixers have held the Atlanta to scoring at just a 108.4 points per 100 possessions rate. Philly’s formula to win this series is on defense. And while Atlanta wants to force the tempo to tire out Joel Embiid in the second half, Rivers will need to counter by slowing the game way down — and in a battle of tempo, slow usually beats fast. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after owning a halftime lead of 20 or more points. They hit the road where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 18 road games Under the Total when favored. The Sixers have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Atlanta has won the last two games in this series as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset wins. Additionally, Atlanta has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Hawks’ head coach Nate McMillan having his team less reliant on 3s as this series has moved forward. Granted, Atlanta took 40 shots from behind the arc in Game Four while making only 12 of these shots. In Game Three, the Hawks attempted only 23 shots from 3-point range. On Wednesday in Game Five, the Hawks attempted only 26 shots from behind the arc, making just nine of these shots. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the playoffs as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their 4 games this season when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less, 3 of these games have finished Under the Total. 25* NBA 2nd Round Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Atlanta Hawks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-17-21 |
Nets +5.5 v. Bucks |
|
89-104 |
Loss |
-106 |
3 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (501) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (502) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (55-27) took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 114-108 victory at home as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Milwaukee (52-29) has lost three of their last five games as they return home looking to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bucks are in bounce-back mode after blowing a 16-point lead in the third quarter — but I think the crisis of confidence within this team will hold them back from covering the point spread. Maybe they win this game — but it should be close. I defer to the team trends to identify how this Milwaukee team will respond to the adversity they face from blowing Game Five away. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Milwaukee has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Additionally, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Milwaukee enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 10 games with their 49.4% shooting percentage on Tuesday. But when the pressure mounted, the Bucks’ shooting failed — they scored only 17 points in the final 10 1/2 minutes of the fourth quarter. Milwaukee only has a 100 Offensive Rating in this series — and they have been playing at a slower pace than during the regular season. The 108 points they scored in Game Five were the most points they scored in the series. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a mess that is riddled with self-doubt at the free-throw line — and Milwaukee’s only answer for the “wall” defense that has stymied them in the postseason in the last three years is for teammates to make 3-pointers. But the Bucks are shooting just 29.3% from behind the arc in this series. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday have true shooting percentages below 47% in this series. The ball movement has diminished in this series for Milwaukee as well which is impacting their efficiency. After averaging 25.5 team assists per game in the regular season, they are getting only 18.4 team assists per game. The Nets won Game Five due to a Herculean effort from Kevin Durant who scored 49 points on 16 of 23 shooting from the field while playing every minute of the game. James Harden played over 45 minutes but he was clearly hobbled with his hamstring injury. He scored only 5 points while making only 1 of his 10 shots and missing all 8 of his shots from behind the arc. I do think Harden will play better tonight even on an injured hamstring — his performance on Tuesday was likely his floor. But Brooklyn should play better on defense tonight after allowing Milwaukee to nail 49.4% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. The Nets have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they have covered the points spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has revenge on their minds — as well as extending their season at least one more game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when avenging a loss on the road. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Brooklyn Nets (501) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-17-21 |
Nets v. Bucks UNDER 221 |
Top |
89-104 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (501) and the Milwaukee Bucks (502) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (55-27) took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 114-108 victory at home as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Milwaukee (52-29) has lost three of their last five games as they return home looking to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets won Game Five due to a Herculean effort from Kevin Durant who scored 49 points on 16 of 23 shooting from the field while playing every minute of the game. It will be difficult for Durant to come close to repeating that effort — especially with fatigue being an issue. James Harden played over 45 minutes but he was clearly hobbled with his hamstring injury. He scored only 5 points while making only 1 of his 10 shots and missing all 8 of his shots from behind the arc. Brooklyn shot 49.4% from the field on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. Despite posting a historical 118.3 Offensive Rating in the regular season (despite injuries to Durant, Harden, and Kyrie Irving) before a 130.1 Offensive Rating in their first-round playoff series with Boston, the Nets have just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series — and they are averaging just 107 PPG against the Bucks in this series. But Brooklyn should play better on defense tonight after allowing Milwaukee to nail 49.4% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. The Nets have played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Milwaukee enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 10 games with their 49.4% shooting percentage on Tuesday. But when the pressure mounted, the Bucks’ shooting failed — they scored only 17 points in the final 10 1/2 minutes of the fourth quarter. Milwaukee only has a 100 Offensive Rating in this series — and they have been playing at a slower pace than during the regular season. The 108 points they scored in Game Five were the most points they scored in the series. With the oddsmakers setting the Game One number just under 240, some bettors may think the Under trend is completed — and the Over is the smart play again. However, I suspect that the 108 points for the Bucks were more likely their scoring ceiling at this point. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a mess that is riddled with self-doubt at the free-throw line — and Milwaukee’s only answer for the “wall” defense that has stymied them in the postseason in the last three years is for teammates to make 3-pointers. But the Bucks are shooting just 29.3% from behind the arc in this series. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday have true shooting percentages below 47% in this series. The ball movement has diminished in this series for Milwaukee as well which is impacting their efficiency. After averaging 25.5 team assists per game in the regular season, they are getting only 18.4 team assists per game. The Bucks have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Milwaukee has also played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total at home after an upset loss on the road. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 25-10-1 in the Bucks’ last 36 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. While Milwaukee’s offensive attack has struggled in this series, their efforts on defense remain elite.
FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have played 7 of their last 10 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the playoff series. The Under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 games between these two teams — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing in Milwaukee. 25* NBA 2nd Round Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (501) and the Milwaukee Bucks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-16-21 |
Clippers v. Jazz -2.5 |
|
119-111 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (584) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (583) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (58-23) has lost two games in a row after dropping Game Four of this series in a 118-104 loss in the Staples Center to the Clippers as a 5.5-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (53-30) evened this series at 2-2 with the win.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Utah lost the two games in Los Angeles by 14 and 26 points — but they have bounced back to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. Returning home should help. Donovan Mitchell appears slowed by a right ankle injury — but his teammates should be better back in Salt Lake City where they make 39.2% of their 3-pointers as a team. And while it would be foolish to assume that Michael Conley will return for this game for betting purposes, he is questionable tonight while trending in the right direction. If Conley does play, he not only helps the Utah offense with his playmaking but also on defense since he remains a skilled on-the-ball defender. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 home games with the Total listed in the 220 to 229.5 point range — and they have covered 4 straight home games when favored. Utah has also covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a victory by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road after winning their previous two games as a favorite. The Clippers have declared Kawhi Leonard out tonight from the knee injury he suffered after colliding with the Jazz’s Joe Ingles with just 4:35 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Leonard’s loss hurts Los Angeles on both ends of the court — but his loss will probably impact their offensive attack the most since he is the team’s primary scorer. Paul George has a long history of not being reliable as the primary scorer in the playoffs. Everyone’s role for the Clippers becomes more important without Leonard. Marcus Morris broke out of his shooting slump on Monday by nailing 5 of his 6 shots from behind the arc — but he made only 1 of his 16 shots from 3-point range in the first three games of this series even with Leonard available as a safety blanket. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 playoff games when tied in the series — and the Jazz have covered their last 3 playoff games when the series was tied. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Utah Jazz (584) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (583). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-16-21 |
Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 222 |
Top |
119-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (583) and the Utah Jazz (584) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (53-30) evened this series at 2-2 with their 118-104 win against the Jazz as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday. Utah (58-23) has lost two games in a row after riding a six-game winning streak.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 9-2-1 in the Clippers’ last 12 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least 10 points. The Clippers have declared Kawhi Leonard out tonight from the knee injury he suffered after colliding with the Jazz’s Joe Ingles with just 4:35 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Leonard’s loss hurts Los Angeles on both ends of the court — but his loss will probably impact their offensive attack the most since he is the team’s primary scorer. Paul George has a long history of not being reliable as the primary scorer in the playoffs. Everyone’s role for the Clippers becomes more important without Leonard. Marcus Morris broke out of his shooting slump on Monday by nailing 5 of his 6 shots from behind the arc — but he made only 1 of his 16 shots from 3-point range in the first three games of this series even with Leonard available as a safety blanket. The Under is 19-9-1 in Los Angeles’ last 29 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home — and they have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Utah has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a loss by 10 or more points. And while the Jazz have not covered the point spread in the last two games in this series, they have then played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Utah is dealing with its own injury issues. Donovan Mitchell made just 9 of 26 shots from the field in Game Four as the right ankle injury he suffered seems to be impacting his play. With a 42.6% usage rate for the Jazz on offense, he may be wearing down. Michael Conley is questionable to return to the court for the first time in this series — if he does play, he not only helps the Utah offense with his playmaking but also on defense since he remains a skilled on-the-ball defender.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in Salt Lake City against the Jazz. 25* NBA Bailout Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (583) and the Utah Jazz (584). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-15-21 |
Bucks v. Nets UNDER 221 |
|
108-114 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (571) and the Brooklyn Nets (572) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (52-28) evened this series at 2-2 with their 107-96 upset victory at home against the Nets as a 2-point underdog. Brooklyn (54-27) had won four games in a row before the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss. And while Brooklyn had covered the point spread in their previous five games, they have then played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least four of their last five games. The Nets return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. The Nets will be without Kyrie Irving tonight after he suffered an ankle injury on Sunday. James Harden will attempt to play tonight after not playing since the opening moments of Game One when he re-injured the hamstring that kept him out for the latter part of the regular season. As we have seen with Anthony Davis in these playoffs, attempting to play when injured is not the same as being effective on the court nor lasting into the second half. Brooklyn has played 4 straight Unders against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. Milwaukee only made 44.3% of their shots on Sunday — and it was still the best shooting effort in their last three games. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 34 points in the win on 14 of 26 shooting. Despite those nice numbers, I am not buying it. Antetokounmpo continued with his struggles and antics at the free-throw line as he missed five of his ten free throw attempts. He has made only 11 of his 29 (37.9%) free throws in this series. He has the yips — and it is affecting his play on the court even when he is not on the line. His fear of dealing with the demons in his head that he uses all ten seconds allotted what the charity stripe in those of quieting them down contributes to him not playing as aggressively in attacking the basket — he doesn’t want to get fouled. His free-throw shooting in the first two games in Brooklyn was even worse as he made just 2 of his 10 shots. This makes the blue-print “wall” defense against Antetokounmpo even more effective — and it compels him to settle for 3-point shot attempts even though he has made only 4 of his 21 shots from behind the arc in this series. The Greek Freak’s good game came mostly on the heels of his teammates picked him up by making 16 of their 47 shots from 3-point land — with most of their converted 3s taking place in the first half. But the Bucks have not made more than 8 shots from downtown in any other game in this series — and they have a rough 20 of 88 (22.3%) shooting percentage from 3-point range in this series. Milwaukee goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 straight Unders — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Brooklyn. 10* NBA Milwaukee-Brooklyn TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (571) and the Brooklyn Nets (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-15-21 |
Bucks v. Nets +3.5 |
Top |
108-114 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (572) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (571) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (54-27) looks to rebound from their 107-96 upset loss at Milwaukee as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Milwaukee (52-28) has won six of their last eight games including the last two games to even this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS PLUS THE POINTS: Brooklyn looked shellshocked and out-of-synch after Kyrie Irving injured his ankle — he only played 17:17 minutes in Game Four. Irving is out for tonight’s game. But the Nets did get some help back with Jeff Green returning to action after missing the previous six games. He played 26:33 minutes on Sunday with eight points and five rebounds. He helps on both ends of the court. Brooklyn still has Kevin Durant to carry the team — both he and his supporting cast should play better back on their home court. Durant made only 20 of his 53 shots in the last two games in Milwaukee. Joe Harris was just 3 of 13 from behind the arc in Games Three and Four. But Harris led the NBA with a 47.5% clip from behind the arc during the regular season — and he was even better at home in the Barclays Center where he nailed 49.7% of his 3-point attempts. As a team, Brooklyn only made 18 of their 65 shots from 3-point land — and that 27.7% shooting percentage is far below their 39.4% mark from 3-point land at home. Durant should play better with two days to mentally prepare for having to be the primary scorer tonight — but he should get help back at home. The Nets are 14-2 straight-up at home since the start of April — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games at home. Brooklyn has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog. And in the last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, Brooklyn has covered the point spread 6 times. Milwaukee only made 44.3% of their shots on Sunday — and it was still the best shooting effort in their last three games. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by double-digits. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 34 points in the win on 14 of 26 shooting. Despite those nice numbers, I am not buying it. Antetokounmpo continued with his struggles and antics at the free-throw line as he missed five of his ten free throw attempts. He has made only 11 of his 29 (37.9%) free throws in this series. He has the yips — and it is affecting his play on the court even when he is not on the line. His fear of dealing with the demons in his head that he uses all ten seconds allotted what the charity stripe in those of quieting them down contributes to him not playing as aggressively in attacking the basket — he doesn’t want to get fouled. His free-throw shooting in the first two games in Brooklyn was even worse as he made just 2 of his 10 shots. This makes the blue-print “wall” defense against Antetokounmpo even more effective — and it compels him to settle for 3-point shot attempts even though he has made only 4 of his 21 shots from behind the arc in this series. The Greek Freak’s good game came mostly on the heels of his teammates picked him up by making 16 of their 47 shots from 3-point land — with most of their converted 3s taking place in the first half. But the Bucks have not made more than 8 shots from downtown in any other game in this series — and they have a rough 20 of 88 (22.3%) shooting percentage from 3-point range in this series. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning two games in a row at home. And while the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And while the first four games in this series have finished Under the Total, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing four Unders in a row. Now the Bucks hit the road again where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. Furthermore, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The news that James Harden will attempt to take the court tonight as he deals with his hamstring injury. We will see if he can be effective — but he can only help the cause. Even without Harden, I think Brooklyn wins tonight (but I recommend taking the points for some insurance). 25* NBA 2nd Round Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the Brooklyn Nets (572) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (571). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-14-21 |
Jazz +5 v. Clippers |
|
104-118 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (563) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (564) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (58-22) had their six-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 132-106 loss at the Staples Center to the Clippers as a 4.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (52-30) still trails 2-1 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ PLUS THE POINTS: Utah allowed the Clippers to make 56.2% of their shots in Game Three which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 47 games. Utah had the third-best Defensive Efficiency in the regular season by holding their opponents to just 107.5 points per 100 possessions so they should tighten up on the defensive end of the court. Utah has also covered the point spread in 34 of their last 53 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Jazz stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in Los Angeles against the Clippers. Utah has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. Los Angeles’ 56.2% shooting percentage was the best offensive effort in their last seven games. But the Clippers are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a double-digit victory. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games.
FINAL TAKE: Utah has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 10* NBA Monday Late Show Bailout with the Utah Jazz (563) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-14-21 |
Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 224 |
Top |
104-118 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (563) and the Los Angeles Clippers (564) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (58-22) had their six-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 132-106 loss at the Staples Center to the Clippers as a 4.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (52-30) still trails 2-1 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jazz allowed the Clippers to make 56.2% of their shots in Game Three which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 47 games. Utah has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at 55% of their shots. The Jazz have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after giving up at least 130 points in their last game. Additionally, Utah has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Los Angeles’ 56.2% shooting percentage was the best offensive effort in their last seven games. But the Clippers have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Head coach Tyronn Lue made a defensive adjustment on defending Donovan Mitchell on Saturday by having his primary defender challenge him earlier up the court. That tactical change helped the Clippers play their best defensive game in the series, overall while limiting the Jazz to 42.9% shooting. Los Angeles stays at home where the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Additionally, the Under is 20-7-3 in the Clippers’ last 30 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and the Under is 10-4-2 in their last 16 games in the playoffs when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Michael Conley has been declared out for this game with the hamstring injury that has kept him out of this series. The Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. 25* NBA 2nd Round Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (563) and the Los Angeles Clippers (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-14-21 |
76ers v. Hawks +3.5 |
|
100-103 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (562) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (561) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (46-34) has lost the last two games in this series after their 127-111 loss at home to the 76ers as a 1.5-point favorite on Friday. Philadelphia (55-25) has won eight of their last ten games while taking a 2-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta allowed the 76ers to make 58.2% of their shots on Friday which was the worst defensive effort in their last 12 games. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after giving up at least 125 points in their last game. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in a decisive 50 of their last 73 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games at home after a loss by 10 or more points. And while they lost Game Two by 16 points, they have then covered the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games after losing two in a row by 15 or more points. The Hawks only took 23 shots from behind the arc in Game Three — 11 shots below their average of 34 shots from 3-point range per game. They should get back to their rhythm on offense tonight. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games at home — and they have covered the point spread 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Philadelphia’s 58.2% shooting percentage was the best offensive performance in their last five games. The 76ers have made at least 51.2% of their shots in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after making at least 50% of their shots in four straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Additionally, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after winning two in a row by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after covering their last two games as a favorite. And while Game Three flew Over the 224.5 point Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Philly stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 road games when playing their second game in five days. The Sixers are also just 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Philadelphia will be without Danny Green tonight who is out with a right calf strain.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in Atlanta. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 home games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 10 or more points on their home court. 20* NBA Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Atlanta Hawks (562) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-21 |
Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 223.5 |
|
125-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (553) and the Denver Nuggets (554) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (58-23) has won six games in a row to take a 3-0 lead in this series after their 116-102 victory on the road against the Nuggets as a 2-point underdog on Friday. Denver (51-30) looks to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns’ offense may get most of the attention — but the defense has been outstanding for head coach Monty Williams’ team. They have held five of their last six opponents to no better than 41.8% shooting. Phoenix has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset victory by double-digits on the road as an underdog. The Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when playing with one day of rest. The Suns have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total as a favorite. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better, the Under is 6-1-1. Denver has lost all three games in this series by at least 14 points — and they have played 49 of their last 78 games at home Under the Total after losing at least two in a row by at least 10 points. And while each game in this series has seen at least 218 combined points, the Nuggets have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after playing at least three games where at least 215 combined points were scored. Denver has also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. The handicapping instincts say to play the Nuggets tonight for a number of reasons — but I am passing due to my concerns over Michael Porter, Jr. The second scoring option to Nikola Jokic has been hobbled with a back injury which probably has much to do with him not scoring more than 15 points in the first three games of this series. The season-ending injury to Jamal Murray and now he slowed Porter leaves the Nuggets without complementary scorers for Jokic. The league MVP scored 32 points with 20 rebonds and 10 assists in Game Three — yet they only managed 102 points. They scored 105 and 98 points in Game One and Two. The Under is 8-1-2 in Denver’s last 11 games in the Western Conference Semifinals — and they have played 5 of their last 8 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in the Pepsi Center in Denver. And in the Nuggets’ last 6 games when avenging a double-digit loss at home, Denver has played 5 of these games Under the Total. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (553) and the Denver Nuggets (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-21 |
Nets -1 v. Bucks |
|
96-107 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (551) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (552) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (54-26) had their four-game winning streak snapped with their 86-83 loss on the road against the Bucks as a 3-point underdog. Milwaukee (51-28) pulled within a 2-1 deficit in the series with the victory.
REASONS TO THE NETS PLUS THE POINTS: Game Three of this series was a fascinating result (from afar). Milwaukee made only 37.8% of their shots in the win which was the lowest field goal percentage of the season. But they were able to win the game via their ferocious play on defense — they held Brooklyn to 36.2% shooting which was their second-best defensive game of the season since Game Two of the regular season (77 games ago). I track these numbers because I want to identify outlier performances to bet against. In this instance, I suspect those numbers are a harbinger of things to come in this series — they are trends rather than outliers. The Bucks scored only 86 points in Game Two on 44.0% shooting. The four-game sweep against Miami temporarily obscured that Milwaukee has not solved its “wall” problem that opposing teams have used in the postseason to neutralize Giannis Antetokounmpo. With the Bucks playing four shooters outside the 3-point line, the Greek Freak has success in the regular season driving the lane with all the cleared space. But their playoff opponents have not taken the bait but instead, play a wall in the interior — a quasi-roaming 2-3 zone defense — to thwart these potential Antetokounmpo drives. An active Antetokounmpo can challenge this defense — exerting energy and getting to the free-throw line. Or, he can play outside as well and take 3-pointers. Or, he can settle for two-point jump shots just inside the arc. Or, he can drive the lane and dish to his open opponents. None of this works if Giannis is off his game … and Giannis is off his game. He has missed 6 of 19 free throw attempts while hushing the Milwaukee crowd to not cheer “MVP” at the line and twice getting whistled for a ten-second violation as he tries to quiet the demons in his head at the stripe. He has the yips. And his fear of failure at the free throw line is taking away his ambition to drive. So he settles for jumpers — yet he made only 1 of 8 shots from behind the arc in Game Three. If he takes a shot just inside the arc, the defense has already won given the low probability of that 2-point shot. Antetokounmpo can dish to his teammates — but the team made only 6 of their 31 (19.3%) shots from downtown. The whole team senses their leader’s anxiety. The Plan B to Giannis not making shots is the Bucks’ system that emphasizes maximizing shot value from 3-pointers. The critics love to blame Budenholzer for his inability to adapt — but there is simply little he can turn to. Rather than blaming Budenholzer, maybe he should be credited for getting the most out of the talent available to him. The team needs a reliable complementary scoring option to Giannis — but Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday may be third options being asked to take on the number two role. And what if Antetokounmpo is really not a number one option himself? Blame Budenholzer! Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a narrow win by three points or less. They have failed to cover the pint spread in 10 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Brooklyn has not shot worse than 36.2% in 37 games — so they should shoot better this afternoon. They missed 20 of their 53 uncontested shots in Game Three — they were flat. But the Nets have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Brooklyn has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 playoff games as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Nets have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 63 games when on the road playing with revenge. 10* NBA Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Brooklyn Nets (551) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-21 |
Nets v. Bucks UNDER 229.5 |
Top |
96-107 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (551) and the Milwaukee Bucks (552) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (51-28) won their first game in this series with their 86-83 victory at home against the Nets as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday. Brooklyn (54-26) had their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Game Three of this series was a fascinating result (from afar). Milwaukee made only 37.8% of their shots in the win which was the lowest field goal percentage of the season. But they were able to win the game via their ferocious play on defense — they held Brooklyn to 36.2% shooting which was their second-best defensive game of the season since Game Two of the regular season (77 games ago). I track these numbers because I want to identify outlier performances to bet against. In this instance, I suspect those numbers are a harbinger of things to come in this series — they are trends rather than outliers. The Bucks scored only 86 points in Game Two on 44.0% shooting. The four-game sweep against Miami temporarily obscured that Milwaukee has not solved its “wall” problem that opposing teams have used in the postseason to neutralize Giannis Antetokounmpo. With the Bucks playing four shooters outside the 3-point line, the Greek Freak has success in the regular season driving the lane with all the cleared space. But their playoff opponents have not taken the bait but instead, play a wall in the interior — a quasi-roaming 2-3 zone defense — to thwart these potential Antetokounmpo drives. An active Antetokounmpo can challenge this defense — exerting energy and getting to the free-throw line. Or, he can play outside as well and take 3-pointers. Or, he can settle for two-point jump shots just inside the arc. Or, he can drive the lane and dish to his open opponents. None of this works if Giannis is off his game … and Giannis is off his game. He has missed 6 of 19 free throw attempts while hushing the Milwaukee crowd to not cheer “MVP” at the line and twice getting whistled for a ten-second violation as he tries to quiet the demons in his head at the stripe. He has the yips. And his fear of failure at the free-throw line is taking away his ambition to drive. So he settles for jumpers — yet he made only 1 of 8 shots from behind the arc in Game Three. If he takes a shot just inside the arc, the defense has already won given the low probability of that 2-point shot. Antetokounmpo can dish to his teammates — but the team made only 6 of their 31 (19.3%) shots from downtown. The whole team senses their leader’s anxiety. The Plan B to Giannis not making shots is the Bucks’ system that emphasizes maximizing shot value from 3-pointers. The critics love to blame Budenholzer for his inability to adapt — but there is simply little he can turn to. Rather than blaming Budenholzer, maybe he should be credited for getting the most out of the talent available to him. The team needs a reliable complementary scoring option to Giannis — but Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday may be third options being asked to take on the number two role. And what if Antetokounmpo is really not a number one option himself? Blame Budenholzer! Where Budenhozler continues to adapt is on defense — that is the route from which the Bucks can win this series. They have slowed down the high-powered Nets offense to just 107.7 PPG. And the pace is slowing down. After averaging 102.2 possessions per game in the regular season, Milwaukee's pace was 97.7 on Thursday. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 6 straight Unders against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn should have fresh legs on defense — they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. And in their last 35 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Nets have played 24 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight meetings Under the Total. I expect more of the same with the market slow to react to the new realities of this series. 25* NBA 2nd Round ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (551) and the Milwaukee Bucks (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-21 |
Jazz v. Clippers -4 |
Top |
106-132 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (542) minus the points versus the Utah Jazz (541) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (51-30) returns home to the Staples Center down 0-2 in this series after their 117-111 loss on the road in Game Two on Thursday. Utah (58-21) has won six straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Once again, Los Angeles has to dig themselves out of an 0-2 hole in this postseason. No team in NBA history has rebounded from two 0-2 deficits in the playoffs — but at least we know that the Clippers are resilient. They went on a 46-23 run when trailing by 21 points in the second half in Game Two. Head coach Tyronn Lue deployed a zone defense to help trigger the rally. But Los Angeles still allowed the Jazz to make 55.3% of their shots in that game. That was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have surrendered in their last seven games. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 55% of their shots. And while LA has allowed their last three opponents to score at least 111 points, they have then covered the point spread in 58 of their last 91 games after allowing at least 105 points in three straight games — including 13 of these 21 situations this season. The Clippers have also covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 56 games after losing two of their last three games. Returning home will help the Los Angeles role players shoot better. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Los Angeles has also coerced the point spread in 6 of their last 9 playoff games when trailing in the series. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games when favored. Utah enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 13 games with their 55.3% shooting percentage. But the Jazz have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. But now Utah goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. The Jazz are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 65 games when motivated to avenge a same-season loss. 25* NBA 2nd Round Saturday ABC-TV Playoff Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Clippers (542) minus the points versus the Utah Jazz (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-11-21 |
Suns v. Nuggets -1.5 |
|
116-102 |
Loss |
-109 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (534) minus the point(s) versus the Phoenix Suns (533) and in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (51-29) has lost the first two games in this series after their 123-98 loss on the road against the Suns as a 5.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Phoenix (57-23) has won five games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINT(S): Denver had their worst shooting game in their last four contests by making only 40% of their shots. They return home where they are scoring 117.9 PPG on 48.4% shooting and 37.8% shooting from behind the arc. Unfortunately for head coach Michael Malone, the 47.9% shooting percentage they allowed Phoenix to generate was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. The Nuggets should play better at home in this must-win game. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. And while Denver has lost the first two games of this series by 17 and 25 points, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 36 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. The Nuggets have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when trailing in the playoff series. Phoenix may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a win by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning five games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when avenging two straight losses by 10 or more points. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Denver Nuggets (534) minus the point(s) versus the Phoenix Suns (533). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-11-21 |
Suns v. Nuggets OVER 222.5 |
Top |
116-102 |
Loss |
-106 |
6 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (533) and the Denver Nuggets (534) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (57-23) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 123-98 victory at home against the Nuggets as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Denver (51-29) has lost three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Even with the easy win, the Suns made 47.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They have been an offensive juggernaut in this series against the suspect Nuggets’ defense — they are scoring 125.6 points per 100 possessions in this series. Phoenix has an effective field goal percentage of 59.7% in the first two games while nailing 40.3% of their 3-point attempts. Denver has allowed their opponents to make 42.2% of their shots from behind the arc in the postseason. Chris Paul looks healthy again after playing through that stinger injury. He scored 17 points on 6 of 10 shooting while assisting on another 15 baskets and not committing a turnover. The Suns have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have also played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total after scoring at least 120 points. They go on the road where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Phoenix has also played 12 of their last 16 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Denver had their worst shooting game in their last four contests by making only 40% of their shots. They return home where they are scoring 117.9 PPG on 48.4% shooting and 37.8% shooting from behind the arc. Unfortunately for head coach Michael Malone, the 47.9% shooting percentage they allowed Phoenix to generate was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. They have allowed the Suns to score at least 112 points in four of their five meetings this season. The Nuggets have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. They return home where the Over is 39-19-2 in their last 60 games. They have played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 220s. Denver has also played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging two straight losses against their opponent. 25* NBA 2nd Round ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (533) and the Denver Nuggets (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-10-21 |
Nets v. Bucks -3.5 |
|
83-86 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (522) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (521) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (50-28) looks to pick themselves off the mat after getting humiliated in Game Two with their 125-86 loss at Brooklyn as a 1.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee has looked horrible in this series with Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the way with 20 missed free throws in his 43 attempts at the charity stripe. Yes, you have to question the psyche of this team after getting upset in the playoffs to Miami last year. And while I think the critics of head coach Mike Budenholzer are largely wanna-be ankle-biters, there is no question that he is on the hot seat as this team’s head coach moving forward. The regular season successes from this team are analytically-driven where they live by the 3 — and that means they can sometimes die by the 3. Khris Middleton has made only 13 of his 43 shots from the field. Antetokounmpo was too passive in Game Two as he too often settles for jump shots rather than drive the lane to take advantage of the Nets’ lack of a rim protector. The Bucks made just 8 of their 27 shots from behind the arc on Monday. Returning home should help where they are 28-10 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games after playing two straight Unders as these first two games of this series have finished. More ball movement should address many of the shooting problems for this team — and what Antetokounmpo continues to experience when combatting the “wall” defense that attempts to mitigate his drives to the basket. Milwaukee had only 14 team assists in Game Two. The Bucks make 48.9% of their shots at home which includes a 39.7% mark from behind the arc which helps them generate 120.8 PPG. The role players should play better which should help Antetokounmpo, Middleton, and Jrue Holiday. The effort level for Milwaukee should be the best it has been in the entire series. The Bucks have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after an upset loss by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset loss by double-digits as a road favorite. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not scoring at least 90 points in their last game. And in their last 15 games after losing two of their last three games, they have covered the point spread in 12 of these games. Brooklyn made 52.1% of their shots in Game Two which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage for the Bucks in their last 10 games. The Nets nailed 21 of their 42 shots from behind the arc in that game. Remember that the Bucks held Miami to just an anemic 95.4 points per 100 possession in the opening round of the playoffs. And this is a team that can get lackadaisical — and they can get lulled into playing “my turn” on offense with their star players rather than to stay disciplined in ball movements to create the best scoring opportunities regardless of star power. The Nets’ defense can also be lacking in effort — they were just 21st in the league in Defensive Rating in the regular season. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win at home by 20 or more points. The Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after holding their opponent to no more than 90 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Once again, Brooklyn will be without James Harden and Jeff Green for this game. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 20 or more points. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Milwaukee Bucks (522) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|