06-30-21 |
Suns v. Clippers UNDER 215 |
|
130-103 |
Loss |
-107 |
5 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (531) and the Los Angeles Clippers (532) in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (62-25) looks to bounce back from their 116-102 upset loss to the Clippers as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (57-33) still faces elimination tonight, trailing 3-2 in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Phoenix allowed the Clippers to make 54.8% of their shots in Game Five which was the worst defensive effort in their last 21 games. The Suns have only suffered back-to-back losses four times all season — so a better effort on the defensive end of the court should be coming tonight. Phoenix has played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Suns have also played 18 of their last 25 games on the road Under the Total after a loss on their home court. Phoenix goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Under is also 9-4-1 in their last 14 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Los Angeles had their best shooting effort in their last five games with their 54.8% shooting percentage on Monday. But the Clippers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. Los Angeles returns to the Staples Center where the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games. The Clippers have also played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total when playing in Los Angeles. Phoenix has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss where they were favored by at least 7 points. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (5
|
06-30-21 |
Suns v. Clippers |
Top |
130-103 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (531) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (532) in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (62-25) looks to bounce back from their 116-102 upset loss to the Clippers as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (57-33) still faces elimination tonight, trailing 3-2 in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Phoenix allowed the Clippers to make 54.8% of their shots in Game Five which was the worst defensive effort in their last 21 games. The Suns have only suffered back-to-back losses four times all season — so a better effort should be coming tonight. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Suns have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by 10 or more points. They go back on the road where they have won five of their seven games in the postseason — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They should get more out of Deandre Ayton tonight after the big man only attempted nine shots on Monday. He had been averaging 20.3 Points-Per-Game in the first four games in this series while tallying at least 18 points and 13 shot attempts in all four games. The Suns are 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the playoffs when favored. Los Angeles had their best shooting effort in their last five games with their 54.8% shooting percentage on Monday. But the Clippers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a double-digit win. Furthermore, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset victory by 10 or more points. We had the Clippers as an underdog in Game Five — but this remains a team dealing with more and more injuries. Losing Kawhi Leonard is very tough — and big man Ivica Zubac did not play due to a sprained MCL injury. He is questionable tonight. Paul George is carrying the team — but fatigue is becoming an issue. His 735 minutes played in the postseason are the most of any player in these playoffs. He logged in at least 40 minutes for the fourth straight time on Monday. Now Los Angeles returns home to the Staples Center where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games when motivated by revenge. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (531) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-21 |
Bucks -6.5 v. Hawks |
|
88-110 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (521) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (522) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (56-30) took a 2-1 lead in this series with their 113-102 win as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Atlanta (50-37) has lost the last two games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Hawks were cruising with a 95-88 lead with just 7:20 left in the game. But Atlanta would only score seven points the rest of the game with their offense almost completely drying up after Trae Young’s inopportune ankle injury after accidentally stepping on the foot of a referee. He is questionable to play tonight. While my best guess is that he tries to play, the mystery is how effective will he be? His game is dependent on his lateral movement. He only took four shots in the fourth quarter, making one, with just three points, and Milwaukee outscoring Atlanta by 15 points when he was on the court. He was merely a decoy in the waning minutes of the game — that speaks loudly. The Hawks are looking more and more like a M*A*S*H unit. They are already hampered by Bogdan Bogdanovic and his knee injury. After scoring 16.4 PPG with 5.9 Rebounds-Per-Game in the first nine playoff games this postseason, he has not scored more than nine points nor pulled down more than four rebounds in his last six playoff games. After making only 3 of 16 shots on Sunday, Bogdanovic has made only 7 of his 28 shot attempts in this series. The Hawks have already lost their best on-the-ball defender Deandre Hunter who was vital in defending Julius Randle in their opening-round series against New York. This team is on the rise — but they simply do not have the roster depth to survive all these injuries. Atlanta has averaged only 96.5 PPG in the last two games in this series. They have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 57 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Milwaukee is a flawed basketball team — but they have a system that works usually under head coach Mike Budenholzer and they consistently play outstanding defense. They have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 playoff games when leading in a playoff series — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 Game Fours in a series.
FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have a big edge in playoff experience against the Hawks — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings against them. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Milwaukee Bucks (521) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-29-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 219 |
Top |
88-110 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Atlanta Hawks (522) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (56-30) took a 2-1 lead in this series with their 113-102 win as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Atlanta (50-37) has lost the last two games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks were cruising with a 95-88 lead with just 7:20 left in the game. But Atlanta would only score seven points the rest of the game with their offense almost completely drying up after Trae Young’s inopportune ankle injury after accidentally stepping on the foot of a referee. He is questionable to play tonight. While my best guess is that he tries to play, the mystery is how effective will he be? His game is dependent on his lateral movement. He only took four shots in the fourth quarter, making one, with just three points, and Milwaukee outscoring Atlanta by 15 points when he was on the court. He was merely a decoy in the waning minutes of the game — that speaks loudly. The Hawks are looking more and more like a M*A*S*H unit. They are already hampered by Bogdan Bogdanovic and his knee injury. After scoring 16.4 PPG with 5.9 Rebounds-Per-Game in the first nine playoff games this postseason, he has not scored more than nine points nor pulled down more than four rebounds in his last six playoff games. After making only 3 of 16 shots on Sunday, Bogdanovic has made only 7 of his 28 shot attempts in this series. Atlanta has averaged only 96.5 PPG in the last two games in this series. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Hawks have played 6 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in the playoffs. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They stay on the road where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games when favored — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 road games when playing teams with a winning record at home. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 5 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has lost the last two games by 34 and 11 points — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging two straight games by 10 or more points. These two teams have also played 4 straight Unders when playing in Atlanta. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Atlanta Hawks (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-21 |
Clippers +6 v. Suns |
|
116-102 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (511) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (512) in Game Five of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (56-33) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing Game Four by an 84-80 score on Sunday as a 1-point underdog. Phoenix (62-24) has won ten of their last eleven games to take the 3-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Clippers only made 32.5% of their shots on Sunday despite them scoring at 120.8 points per 100 possession clip in the playoffs. This has been a resilient team that has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a loss by six points or less. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in a decisive 45 of their last 67 games after a straight-up loss. The Clippers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 26 road games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Phoenix only made 36.0% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 41 games. The Suns’ 84 points came after them scoring just 92 points in Game Three — so this looks to be more than just a bad shooting night. Devin Booker does not look comfortable wearing the face mask to protect his broken nose — and he may be tiring from the playoff grind in his first postseason as a professional. Chris Paul still looks rusty after being out with COVID. Cameron Payne is slowed with an ankle injury — he played only 20 minutes on Sunday and made only 2 of his 8 shots from the field. Phoenix only made 38.9% of their shots in Game Three — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after not making at least 39% of their shots in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles added Ivica Zubac to their injury report this afternoon with a sprained right knee. Hopefully, he can still play — but the point spread is adjusting. If he cannot go, it likely means more playing time for Nicolas Batum who played an important role in the Dallas and Utah series. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when avenging a loss at home. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Clippers (511) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-28-21 |
Clippers v. Suns UNDER 214.5 |
Top |
116-102 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512) in Game Five of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (56-33) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing Game Four by an 84-80 score on Sunday as a 1-point underdog. Phoenix (62-24) has won ten of their last eleven games to take the 3-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers only made 32.5% of their shots on Sunday — so was that an outlier or indicative of a downward trend? I suspect it is the latter. This Los Angeles team is tired — both physically from the every-other-day grind of the NBA playoffs and emotionally for having dug itself three straight 0-2 series holes. Without Kawhi Leonard, Paul George has taken the leadership role on offense — and he is averaging 40.9 minutes per game in the playoffs which is almost seven more minutes per game than his regular-season average. The Clippers are only making 34.8% of their 3-point shot attempts in this series, a far cry from their 41.8% clip during the regular season. Los Angeles has tired legs — and the Suns are forcing them to take more difficult shots from behind the arc. The Clippers have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss at home against a Pacific Division rival. The Under is also 13-6-1 in their last 20 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, LA has played 4 straight Unders after failing to crack 90 points in their last game. The Clippers are averaging 120.8 points per 100 possessions in the postseason — but they are down to just 109.4 points per 100 possessions against Phoenix. Los Angeles has played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog — and the Under is 35-17-3 in their last 55 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Phoenix has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win against a Pacific Division rival — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a divisional rival. The Suns have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Phoenix only made 36.0% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 41 games. The Suns’ 84 points came after them scoring just 92 points in Game Three — so this looks to be more than just a bad shooting night. Devin Booker does not look comfortable wearing the face mask to protect his broken nose — and he may be tiring from the playoff grind in his first postseason as a professional. Chris Paul still looks rusty after being out with COVID. Cameron Payne is slowed with an ankle injury — he played only 20 minutes on Sunday and made only 2 of his 8 shots from the field. Phoenix returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The 164 combined points finished over 50 points below the 217.5 total set for Game Four. The empirical data suggests another lower-scoring game is coming. In games with the Total set at 210 or higher, when a team with a winning percentage in the 60 to 75% range faces a team with a winning record after a game that finished at least 36 points below the Total, this game finished Under the Total in 52 of the last 73 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 224.5 |
|
113-102 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Atlanta Hawks (502) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (55-30) evened this series at 1-1 with their 125-91 victory at home as an 8-point favorite on Friday. Atlanta (50-36) had their two-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks shot 52.1% shooting percentage from the field in Game Two which was the best shooting effort in their last 14 games. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after covering four or five of their last six games. They head back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 20 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s. The Under is also 7-2-1 in the Bucks’ last 10 road games against teams with a winning record. The Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when they are favored. Atlanta allowed the Bucks to make 52.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Hawks made only 41.5% of their shots with Trae Young struggling by making only 6 of 16 shots including just 1 of his 8 shots from behind the arc for 15 points. He struggled with Milwaukee’s adjustment to pick-and-roll coverage that played higher-up on him to take away the floaters that burned them in Game One. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 21 of their last 33 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Hawks’ Bogan Bogdanovic has struggled since suffering a knee injury in Game Six of their series with Philadelphia. He has not scored more than 9 points in four straight games despite being Atlanta’s primary scoring option after Young. The Hawks return home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. Atlanta has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. The Hawks have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by 30 or more points. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (501) and the Atlanta Hawks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks +4.5 |
Top |
113-102 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (502) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (50-36) looks to bounce back from their 125-91 loss to the Bucks as an 8-point underdog in Game Two on Friday. Milwaukee (55-30) has won three of their last four games and evened this series at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta allowed the Bucks to make 52.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games after a loss on the road. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Hawks started slow (or failed to thwart the inevitable fast start from Milwaukee after they lost home-court advantage in Game One) — after trailing by six points at the end of the first quarter, they were blitzed in the second quarter by a 43-17 margin to go into halftime by a 77-45 score. Atlanta has responded from a half-time deficit of 15 or more points by covering the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games next time out. Despite the lazy and tired reputation for never making adjustments, Bucks’ head coach Mike Budenholzer made yet another change in tactics in this game by having Brook Lopez confront Trae Young higher up the court on pick-and-roll switches. This took away Young’s floater game. The Hawks’ counter requires help from his teammates — but Young only had three assists. His nine turnovers were too many — but returning home should help where his teammates tend to shoot the basketball with more proficiency. Coaches become tactical geniuses or idiots often based on how often the shots finally fall. Atlanta shoots 46.4% from the field and makes 36.6% of their 3-pointers — and those numbers improve to a 47.1% mark along with a 38.7% clip from behind the arc when they are playing at home. Look for more from Kevin Huerter who scored only 21 combined points in the first two games of this series in Milwaukee. He poured in 44 points in the final two games in the Philadelphia series. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Milwaukee’s 52.1% shooting percentage was the best shooting effort in their last 14 games. But the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win at home by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory by at least 30 points. Milwaukee has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games on the road after winning two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games after winning three of four. Now the Bucks go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 41 games with the Total set in the 220s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Milwaukee has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. The Hawks have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games when avenging a loss of 30 or more points. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Year with the Atlanta Hawks (502) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-21 |
Suns v. Clippers OVER 218 |
|
84-80 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (591) and the Los Angeles Clippers (592) in Game Four of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (61-24) had their nine-game winning streak in the postseason snapped in a 106-92 upset loss on the road against the Clippers as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (56-32) has won five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Phoenix made only 38.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 40 games. Chris Paul returned to the court after completing his COVID quarantine but he was rusty by making only 5 of 19 shots. Devin Booker made only 5 of 21 shots while looking uncomfortable wearing the mask he will have to get comfortable with after breaking his nose in the last game. To compound matters, Cameron Payne suffered a left ankle sprain which limited him to just 4:19 minutes played. Phoenix should back to their 114.4 PPG scoring average tonight. Paul will be better with another two days of work to get back into his routine. Booker will get used to the mask — this has rarely been a hindrance for superstars once they get acclimated to the appliance (Rip Hamilton liked it so much that he kept wearing it after his face injury healed when he was leading Detroit Pistons to a title in the 1990s). Payne is listed as probable to play tonight. The Suns have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. They stay on the road where they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a road favorite. Los Angeles played their best game on defense in their last 12 games by holding the Suns to just 38.9% shooting. They have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a double-digit win against a Pacific Division rival. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. The Clippers have also played 13 of their last 17 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog including their last four games.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 10* NBA Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (591) and the Los Angeles Clippers (592). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-21 |
Suns -1 v. Clippers |
Top |
84-80 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (591) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (592) in Game Four of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (61-24) had their nine-game winning streak in the postseason snapped in a 106-92 upset loss on the road against the Clippers as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (56-32) has won five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINT(S): Phoenix made only 38.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 40 games. Chris Paul returned to the court after completing his COVID quarantine but he was rusty by making only 5 of 19 shots. Devin Booker made only 5 of 21 shots while looking uncomfortable wearing the mask he will have to get comfortable with after breaking his nose in the last game. To compound matters, Cameron Payne suffered a left ankle sprain which limited him to just 4:19 minutes played. Phoenix should bounce back tonight. They have only lost back-to-back games four times this season. Paul will be better with another two days of work to get back into his routine. Booker will get used to the mask — this has rarely been a hindrance for superstars once they get acclimated to the appliance (Rip Hamilton liked it so much that he kept wearing it after his face injury healed when he was leading Detroit Pistons to a title in the 1990s). Payne is listed as probable to play tonight. The Suns have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, the Suns have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after a point spread loss. And while Phoenix has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. They are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games when favored. Los Angeles played their best game on defense in their last 12 games by holding the Suns to just 38.9% shooting. But the Clippers are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a double-digit win. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win as a home dog. Despite the triumph in Game Three, there are too many cracks in the armor for this team in what is essentially in a pick ‘em situation tonight. Kawhi Leonard is not likely to play again this postseason. Paul George is carrying the load — but he is logging a ton of minutes. He leads all players in the postseason with 653 minutes played and he has been required to play at least 40 minutes in six of his last eight games. The canary in the coal mine may have been his six turnovers in the final 14 minutes of Game Three. Marcus Morris is playing hurt. DeMarcus Cousins is unplayable since he will get burned on the pick-and-roll. And the Clippers continue to have no answer for Deandre Ayton who is scoring 20.7 PPG on 73.8% shooting in this series. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when avenging a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (591) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (592). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-25-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 |
|
91-125 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (582) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (581) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (54-30) looks to bounce back from their 116-113 upset loss to the Hawks in Game One of this series as an 8.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Atlanta (50-35) has won four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee had a seven-point lead with four minutes to go and looked in position to win and cover the point spread in Game One. But the Bucks failed to close while getting beaten on the defensive glass with Atlanta pulling down five offensive rebounds which resulted in seven second-chance points. Milwaukee has no business getting beat on the glass against this Hawks team. The Bucks entered this series leading all teams in the postseason with a rebounding rate of 53.8% — and the Hawks’ 48.8% rebounding rate is the fourth-worst in the playoffs. Milwaukee allowed Atlanta to make 49.5% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Bucks should tighten things up on that end of the court tonight. Mike “Never Makes Adjustments” Budenholzer only played Brook Lopez for just eight minutes in the second half with him on the bench for the final 16 minutes of the game. Lopez was getting burned playing drop defense in the pick-and-roll against Trae Young who was torching him with floaters — but Budenholzer’s move to a small lineup with Antetokounmpo playing the five helped to limit Young to making just two of his eight floaters in the second half. Expect more smaller lineups from Budenholzer tonight. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with one day of rest. Khris Middleton should play better tonight after making only 6 of 23 shots and missing all nine of his shots from downtown. The Bucks only made 8 of their 26 shots (30.8%) from 3-point range — they should improve on that tonight. They have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 62 home games with the Total set in the 220 to 229.5 point range — including eight of these last thirteen situations. Atlanta has pulled off two straight upsets after beating Philadelphia on the road in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Semifinals — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after upsetting their opponents in two straight games. The Hawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two in a row on the road. While Young carried Atlanta on Wednesday, Bogan Bogdanovich continues to struggle with his injured knee — he scored only four points on 1 of 6 shooting in just 27 minutes. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points including six of these last eight situations. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 37 road games with the Total set in the 220 to 229.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 Game Twos in a playoff series including five of their last seven. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Milwaukee Bucks (582) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (581). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-25-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226.5 |
|
91-125 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (581) and the Milwaukee Bucks (582) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (50-35) took a 1-0 lead in this series with their 116-113 upset victory on the road against the Bucks as an 8.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Milwaukee (54-30) has still won four of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks shot 49.5% from the field in Game One which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. It will be difficult for Trae Young to replicate his 48-point effort. He was thriving in the midrange making 13 of his 21 shots inside the arc while taking advantage of the Bucks’ drop coverage on pick-and-rolls. That game was the worst defensive effort for Milwaukee in their last six games. The Bucks should tighten things up on that end of the court tonight. Mike “Never Makes Adjustments (according to his lazy critics)” Budenholzer only played Brook Lopez for just eight minutes in the second half with him on the bench for the final 16 minutes of the game. Lopez was getting burned playing drop defense in the pick-and-roll against Trae Young who was torching him with floaters — but Budenholzer’s move to a small lineup with Antetokounmpo playing the five helped to limit Young to making just two of his eight floaters in the second half. Expect more smaller lineups from Budenholzer tonight. Atlanta has pulled off two straight upset wins after beating Philadelphia on the road in Game Seven in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Hawks have played 10 straight road games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upsets on the road. Atlanta has also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. Milwaukee has played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Bucks have also played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has played 8 of their last 11 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series — including their last four. The Under is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games when favored. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when leading in the series. These two teams have also played 4 of their last meetings Under the Total. 10* NBA Atlanta-Milwaukee TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (581) and the Milwaukee Bucks (582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-24-21 |
Suns -1 v. Clippers |
|
92-106 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (571) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (572) in Game Three of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (61-23) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 104-103 victory as a 3-point favorite on Tuesday. Los Angeles (55-32) trails by an 0-2 mark in a playoff series for the third straight time this postseason.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINT(S): Phoenix is on a roll with nine straight victories in these playoffs — and now they get Chris Paul back to provide his court leadership and on-the-ball defense. The Suns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. Phoenix won Game Two despite shooting 50% from the field which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. In allowing the Clippers to make 45% of their shots, they played their worst defensive game in their last three contests. The Suns may have an insurmountable edge in Deandre Ayton who Los Angeles does not have an answer for down low. Ayton is averaging 22 PPG on 75.9% shooting while pulling down 11.5 Rebounds-Per-Game in this series. Only Ivica Zubac has come close to slowing down Ayton. DeMarcus Cousins has a -38.2 Net Rating when he is on the court in this series with the Suns scoring at 138.2 points per 100 possession rate. If Zubac gets into foul trouble, Los Angeles may not have a suitable alternative to Cousins. Phoenix goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. I just don’t like the position Los Angeles has put themselves in again. They had Kawhi Leonard for the previous two Game Threes.
|
06-24-21 |
Suns v. Clippers OVER 221 |
|
92-106 |
Loss |
-102 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572) in Game Three of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (61-23) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 104-103 victory as a 3-point favorite on Tuesday. Los Angeles (55-32) trails by an 0-2 mark in a playoff series for the third straight time this postseason.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Phoenix won Game Two despite shooting 50% from the field which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. The Suns may have an insurmountable edge in Deandre Ayton who Los Angeles does not have an answer for down low. Ayton is averaging 22 PPG on 75.9% shooting while pulling down 11.5 Rebounds-Per-Game in this series. Only Ivica Zubac has come close to slowing down Ayton. DeMarcus Cousins has a -38.2 Net Rating when he is on the court in this series with the Suns scoring at 138.2 points per 100 possession rate. If Zubac gets into foul trouble, Los Angeles may not have a suitable alternative to Cousins. And if the Clippers are playing Zubac, that means more points for both teams. Los Angeles has scored 116 points per 100 possessions with Zubac on the court in this series. The Over is 11-5-1 in the Suns’ last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Now they go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Los Angeles only made 45% of their shots on Tuesday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last seven games. Paul George has made only 11 of his 29 shots in this series and Marcus Morris has made just 3 of his 13 shots — both should play better back on their home court. The Clippers have played 4 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less. The Clippers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by three points or less. 10* NBA Phoenix-LA Clippers ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-23-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks -7 |
|
116-113 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (562) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (561) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (54-29) has won four of their last five games after rallying from a 3-2 deficit to defeat Brooklyn by a 115-111 score as a 2-point favorite in Game 7 on Saturday. Atlanta (49-35) has won three of their last four games after their 103-96 upset win at Philadelphia as a 4-point underdog in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee outlasted the Nets despite making only 43.9% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. The Bucks should build off their momentum from upsetting Brooklyn. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset victory as a road underdog. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 220s — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games when laying 6.5 to 12 points. While there is a cottage industry of folks thinking they are better head coaches than Mike Budenholzer because he doesn’t make enough “adjustments”, the veteran head coach in his third Conference Finals does not get enough credit for his defensive tactics. The Bucks are holding their playoff opponents to 105.0 points per 100 possessions — and these opponents have just a 51.2% effective field percentage in the playoffs. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset win on the road in their last game. Now they stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games when an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 36 road games with the Total set in the 220s. The Hawks are dealing with injuries to open this series. Bogan Bogdanovich is a game-time-decision with the knee injury that limited him to only seven points in the last three games of that series. Kevin Huerter is probable but he is dealing with an ankle. And Atlanta is already without DeAndre Hunter for the rest of the season who would have drawn the defensive assignment to defend Khris Middleton.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta lacks deep playoff experience — and that may rear its ugly head when this team transitioning from a triumphant seven-game series on the road to the blank slate of an Eastern Conference Finals. Milwaukee has been knocking on the door to reach the NBA Finals for the last few seasons. Those experiences should help them comfortably pull away to win Game One. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Milwaukee Bucks (562) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-23-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 227 |
|
116-113 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (561) and the Milwaukee Bucks (562) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (49-35) has won three of their last four games after their 103-96 upset win at Philadelphia as a 4-point underdog in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. Milwaukee (54-29) has won four of their last five games after rallying from a 3-2 deficit to defeat Brooklyn by a 115-111 score as a 2-point favorite in Game 7 on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Atlanta has also played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total after an upset victory. And in their last 31 games after winning two of their last three games, the Hawks have played 20 of these games Under the Total. Atlanta stays on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total. And in their last 21 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, the Hawks have played 14 of these games Under the Total. Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. While there is a cottage industry of folks thinking they are better head coaches than Mike Budenholzer because he doesn’t make enough “adjustments”, the veteran head coach in his third Conference Finals does not get enough credit for his defensive tactics. The Bucks are holding their playoff opponents to 105.0 points per 100 possessions — and these opponents have just a 51.2% effective field percentage in the playoffs. But the Milwaukee offense struggled against a suspect Brooklyn defense last round — they scored at just a 101.9 points per 100 possession rate. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 games at home Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new playoff series Under the Total. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 10* NBA Atlanta-Milwaukee TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (561) and the Milwaukee Bucks (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-22-21 |
Clippers +5.5 v. Suns |
|
103-104 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (551) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (552) in Game Two of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (55-31) looks to bounce-back from their 120-114 loss on the road against the Suns in Game One as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Phoenix (60-23) has won eight games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles had an off-day shooting on Sunday as they made only 45.5% of their shots from the field which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last six games. They also allowed the Suns to make 55.1% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. Even without Kawhi Leonard, the Clippers should tighten up on defense tonight. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 120 points in their last contest. Additionally, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a loss on the road to a fellow Pacific Division rival. Paul George is proving he can lead this team without Leonard on the court. He is scoring 32.2 PPG in his last five games (one with Leonard) with 5.2 Assists-Per-Game, 8.2 Rebounds-Per-Game, and a 44.9% shooting mark from behind the arc. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games with the Total set at 120 or higher. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games when trailing in the series. Phoenix had their best shooting performance in their last 12 games with their 55.1% shooting clip on Sunday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. The Suns have now covered the point spread in eight straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in at least seven straight games. This is the game that this young Phoenix team may really miss Chris Paul who remains in COVID quarantine. While the team still has a playoff veteran in Jae Crowder on the court, most of the remaining players in the rotation lacked any playoff experience before this season. These Game Twos on your home court after winning Game One can be tricky — even wily vets can get up thinking they will cruise to a 2-0 series lead. Even without Leonard, this Clippers’ team is loaded with veterans with playoff experience.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 41 of their last 67 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Clippers (551) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-20-21 |
Hawks v. 76ers -6.5 |
|
103-96 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (534) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (533) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (56-27) forced a climactic seventh game in this series with their 104-99 win on the road against the Hawks as a 2.5-point road favorite on Friday. Atlanta (48-35) has lost three of the last five games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: After their blistering first half in the opening game of this series where the Hawks made 63.4% of their shots, Atlanta has never come close to replicating that mark. They have not made more than 45.9% of their shots in five of the next six games — and they only made 41.2% of their shots on Friday despite playing on their home court. While Trae Young has been scintillating with a 30.3 PPG scoring average along with an 11.0 Assists-Per-Game mark, the problem for the Hawks is that he is not getting much help. No other play is averaging more than 2.5 Assists-Per-Game. Bogan Bogdanovich had being been a reliable number two in the first four games of this series with a 19 PPG scoring average and a 36.1% clip from bending the arc, he has only averaged 6.5 PPG in the last two games while making only 1 of his 10 shots from 3-point range. And now Bogdanovich is questionable with a knee injury for this game. Young needs more help. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They go back to Philadelphia for Game Seven where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of at least 60% at home. The Hawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Philadelphia. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a narrow win by six points or less. They blew 18-point leads in Game Four and Five before playing for the full 48 minutes on Friday. Atlanta found success pushing the pace to tire out Joel Embiid — but the length of this series may be neutralizing Atlanta’s ability to outrun and outlast the Sixers. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games when favored. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia 76ers (534) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (533). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-20-21 |
Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
103-96 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (48-35) has lost three of the last five games in this series after their 104-99 loss on the road against the 76ers on Friday as a 2.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (56-27) had lost the last two games in this series before forcing a Game Seven with the win in Game Six.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After their blistering first half in the opening game of this series where the Hawks made 63.4% of their shots, Atlanta has never come close to replicating that mark. They have not made more than 45.9% of their shots in five of the next six games — and they only made 41.2% of their shots on Friday despite playing on their home court. While Trae Young has been scintillating with a 30.3 PPG scoring average along with an 11.0 Assists-Per-Game mark, the problem for the Hawks is that he is not getting much help. No other play is averaging more than 2.5 Assists-Per-Game. Bogan Bogdanovich had being been a reliable number two in the first four games of this series with a 19 PPG scoring average and a 36.1% clip from bending the arc, he has only averaged 6.5 PPG in the last two games while making only 1 of his 10 shots from 3-point range. And now Bogdanovich is questionable with a knee injury for this game. Young needs more help. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They go back to Philadelphia for Game Seven where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. The Hawks have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the playoffs as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. After scoring at least 118 points in each of the first three games of this series, the Sixers have not scored more than 106 points in the next three games. That downtrend coincides with the slide in Joel Embiid’s play as he continues to manage with the right meniscus tear in his knee. Embiid scored only 22 points on 37.5% shooting on Friday. Philadelphia is favored to win this game and move on to the NBA Eastern Conference Finals — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have played 3 of their last 4 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination. Atlanta has played 17 of their last 22 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination in their history — and they have played 16 of their last 17 playoff games Under the Total in closeout games. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-20-21 |
Clippers v. Suns -4 |
|
114-120 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 3:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (536) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (535) in Game One of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (59-23) takes the court again for the first time since last Sunday when they completed their four-game sweep on the road against Denver as a 6-point favorite. Los Angeles (55-30) has won four games in a row with their 131-119 upset win against Utah on Friday as a 2.5-point home underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: The Clippers will not have Kawhi Leonard at least for the first two games in this series with his knee injury that threatens to keep him out the rest of the postseason. Paul George stepped up in his absence to average 32.5 PPG and 12.5 Rebounds-Per-Game in the final two games of that series. Frankly, I think that series spoke more to the Utah Jazz being completely exposed when Tyronn Lue went small to expose Utah’s reliance on Rudy Gobert protecting the rim since the small-line lineup required him to defend the perimeter. The Jazz had no answer for that (why not try a zone defense to keep Gobert in the middle? Quin Snyder would know better than me). The Clippers nailed 56.5% of their shots on Friday which was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. Los Angeles faces a different challenge now — and going small may not be as effective in this series since (a) Deandre Ayton is a more agile perimeter defender than Gobert and (b) the Suns’ defense is not as dependent on his rim protection to anchor their defense. After two straight upset victories, Los Angeles may be due for an emotional letdown with the opportunity to exhale.
|
06-19-21 |
Bucks v. Nets +0.5 |
|
115-111 |
Loss |
-113 |
4 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (522) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (521) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (55-28) looks to rebound from their 104-89 loss on the road against the Bucks as a 5.5-point underdog on Thursday. Milwaukee (53-29) has won three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Brooklyn earned the luxury of having a game in hand with their 114-108 victory at home against the Bucks in Game Five with Kevin Durant proving he is the best player in this series with his historic 49-point performance. In an expected close game, Durant should outduel Antetokounmpo — and he has the help of James Harden who played better on Thursday. The Nets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Brooklyn has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the playoffs when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Milwaukee may have rallied from an 0-2 deficit in this series but they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after winning three of their last four games. Khris Middleton stepped on Thursday by scoring 37 points on 11 of 16 shooting from the field. Middleton nailed 5 of his 8 shots from behind the arc — but the telling stat is that his teammates made only 2 of their 25 shots from downtown. Now the Bucks go back on the road where Middleton has made only 21 of his 65 shots (32.3%) in this series. Milwaukee has made only 27 of their 89 shots (30.3%) from behind the arc in this series. Jrue Holiday is not having a good series as he is averaging only 15.5 PPG on 40.5% shooting. And then there is Giannis Antetokounmpo who is scoring nice numbers when able to pad his stats as a frontrunner when his team has the lead, but he has disappointed in clutch situations and he has only made 21 of his 46 (45.7%) free throws in the series. Now the Bucks go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee is just 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games in the playoffs as a dog. With all the demons that the Bucks have faced in the last few years from playoff disappointments along with a superstar in Giannis Antetokounmpo lacking in confidence, look for Milwaukee to find a way to lose this game. 10* NBA Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Brooklyn Nets (522) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-19-21 |
Bucks v. Nets UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
115-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Brooklyn Nets (522) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (53-29) forced a decisive seventh game in this series on Thursday with their 104-89 victory at home as a 5-point favorite. Brooklyn (55-28) has lost three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Khris Middleton stepped on Thursday by scoring 37 points on 11 of 16 shooting from the field. Middleton nailed 5 of his 8 shots from behind the arc — but the telling stat is that his teammates made only 2 of their 25 shots from downtown. Now the Bucks go back on the road where Middleton has made only 21 of his 65 shots (32.3%) in this series. Milwaukee has made only 27 of their 89 shots (30.3%) from behind the arc in this series. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog overall — and they have played 4 straight playoff games Under the Total when getting the points. Milwaukee is playing elite-level defense in this series. Going into Game Six, the Bucks held Brooklyn to just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series — and then they held the Nets to only 89 points. Brooklyn is averaging only — and they are averaging just 107 PPG against the Bucks in this series. The Nets are averaging only 103.7 PPG in this series —and they have not scored more than 96 points in three of their last four games in this series. Despite posting a historical 118.3 Offensive Rating in the regular season (and despite injuries to Durant, Harden, and Kyrie Irving) before a 130.1 Offensive Rating in their first-round playoff series with Boston, the Nets had just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series before Game Six. The Under is 34-16-1 in Milwaukee’s last 51 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. While there is now an entire cottage industry of NBA “experts” who think they could get more out of this Bucks’ team than Mike Budenholzer because they have thoughts on how they would better deploy his rotation patterns, Budenholzer has coached amazing results on the defensive end of the court in this series. Brooklyn has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 90 points in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-1 in the Nets’ last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a loss by 10 or more points. For the second-straight game, Brooklyn trailed at halftime by double-digits. They were in the hole by a 59-48 score on Thursday after trailing, 59-43, on Tuesday. The Nets have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after trailing by 10 or more points at halftime in their last two games. They return home where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games. Brooklyn has also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams stumbling into the finals with major question marks from their star offensive players. Kevin Durant was sublime in Game Five — but playing every minute on Tuesday seemed to sap his energy on Thursday as he only got to the free throw line twice while committing seven turnovers and missing six of his eight shots from 3-point land. James Harden is not close to 100%. Joe Harris is making only 30.9% of his 3-pointers in this series after leading the NBA in 3-point shooting with a 47.5% clip. Middleton is struggling away from home — and Jrue Holiday is not having a good series as he is averaging only 15.5 PPG on 40.5% shooting. And then there is Giannis Antetokounmpo who is scoring nice numbers when able to pad his stats as a frontrunner when his team has the lead, but he has disappointed in clutch situations and he has only made 21 of his 46 (45.7%) free throws in the series. The Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 games between these two teams in Brooklyn. 25* NBA 2nd Round Saturday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Brooklyn Nets (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-18-21 |
Jazz -1 v. Clippers |
|
119-131 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (513) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (514) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (58-24) has lost the last three games of this series after getting upset by a 119-111 score as an 8-point underdog on Wednesday. Los Angeles (54-30) has won five of their last seven games with the opportunity to close out this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Facing the adversity of Kawhi Leonard likely out for the rest of the playoffs (at least the rest of this series), the Clippers stepped up with perhaps the best game in the franchise’s history with that upset victory while most of the world wrote them off. Paul George was “playoff P” with 37 points, 16 rebounds, and five assists in leading his team to victory. But there was a reason why this team was being written off. The pressure was gone on Wednesday — but now expectations have risen dramatically for this team, especially as they return home to the Staples Center with the opportunity to close out this series. Los Angeles has only covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when leading in the playoff series — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 playoff games in close-out situations. Marcus Morris also overachieved on Wednesday with his 25 points which were a career-high for him in the playoffs. Will George and Morris approach those numbers again? The Clippers score 10.3 fewer points per 100 possessions without Leonard on the court. 119 points and 51.2% shooting are unlikely to be on the LA boxscore again tonight. The Clippers are likely due for a visit from the Regression Gods on offense, as is, after posting 142.0, 130.4, and 127.9 Offensive Ratings in their last three games. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Utah has not covered the point spread in three straight games in this series — but they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games including four of these six circumstances this season. The Jazz have disappointed their supporters by losing three straight games in this series after playing so well in the first two games of this series. Utah misses Michael Conley — and the ankle injury to Donovan Mitchell seems to be impacting his game. But this is a team that can get hot from 3-point range — and they can playing stifling defense. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road when favored. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 playoff games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 48 games with the Total set in the 220 to 229.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Utah has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 playoff games when trailing in the series — and they have covered the point spread in all 3 of their playoff games when facing elimination under head coach Quin Snyder. The Jazz have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the Staples Center against the Clippers. 25* NBA 2nd Round ESPN Playoff Game of the Year with the Utah Jazz (513) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-18-21 |
Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 221 |
|
119-131 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (513) and the Los Angeles Clippers (514) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (58-24) has lost the last three games of this series after getting upset by a 119-111 score as an 8-point underdog on Wednesday. Los Angeles (54-30) has won five of their last seven games with the opportunity to close out this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Utah has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Jazz have not covered the point spread in three straight games in this series — but not only have they played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games, but they have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in three straight games. Utah misses Michael Conley as a second playmaker in this series and to take some of the pressure off Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell’s productivity has declined as the series has moved on — he made only 6 of his 19 shots on Wednesday and is shooting under 40% in the series after Game Two. The Jazz have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when facing elimination in a playoff series. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They return home where the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Clippers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Utah has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing with triple revenge. 10* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (513) and the Los Angeles Clippers (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-18-21 |
76ers -2 v. Hawks |
|
104-99 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (511) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (512) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (55-27) has suffered two straight upset losses in this series after losing to the Hawks at home by a 109-106 score as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. Atlanta (48-34) can close out this series tonight with their 3-2 lead in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philly started fast by making 17 of their 30 shots from behind the arc in the first half which helped them take a 62-40 halftime lead. While the second-half collapse was soul-crushing, look for this veteran group to pick themselves up tonight with this opportunity for redemption. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss at home. Philly has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after owning a lead by 20 or more points in the first half of their last game. The Sixers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two of their last three games. They go back on the road where they are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 road games when favored. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games when trailing in the series. Atlanta has put themselves in a position to pull the upset in this series — but they lack experience in closing out big playoff series. This is a franchise that is just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after pulling off two straight upsets. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win on the road by three points or less. The Hawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. The Sixers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia 76ers (511) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-18-21 |
76ers v. Hawks UNDER 224 |
Top |
104-99 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Atlanta Hawks (512) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (55-27) has suffered two straight upset losses in this series after losing to the Hawks at home by a 109-106 score as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. Atlanta (48-34) can close out this series tonight with their 3-2 lead in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers took a 62-40 lead going into halftime but their shooting got ice cold as they made only 3 of their 24 shots from behind the arc in the final 24 minutes to blow that game. While it is easy to blame the offense, Doc Rivers’ team allowed the Hawks to score 40 points in the fourth quarter to steal Game Five. In general, Philadelphia has played outstanding defense after getting blitzed in the first half of the first game of this series. Since Game One, the Sixers have held the Atlanta to scoring at just a 108.4 points per 100 possessions rate. Philly’s formula to win this series is on defense. And while Atlanta wants to force the tempo to tire out Joel Embiid in the second half, Rivers will need to counter by slowing the game way down — and in a battle of tempo, slow usually beats fast. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after owning a halftime lead of 20 or more points. They hit the road where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 18 road games Under the Total when favored. The Sixers have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Atlanta has won the last two games in this series as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset wins. Additionally, Atlanta has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Hawks’ head coach Nate McMillan having his team less reliant on 3s as this series has moved forward. Granted, Atlanta took 40 shots from behind the arc in Game Four while making only 12 of these shots. In Game Three, the Hawks attempted only 23 shots from 3-point range. On Wednesday in Game Five, the Hawks attempted only 26 shots from behind the arc, making just nine of these shots. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the playoffs as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their 4 games this season when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less, 3 of these games have finished Under the Total. 25* NBA 2nd Round Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Atlanta Hawks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-17-21 |
Nets +5.5 v. Bucks |
|
89-104 |
Loss |
-106 |
3 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (501) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (502) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (55-27) took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 114-108 victory at home as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Milwaukee (52-29) has lost three of their last five games as they return home looking to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bucks are in bounce-back mode after blowing a 16-point lead in the third quarter — but I think the crisis of confidence within this team will hold them back from covering the point spread. Maybe they win this game — but it should be close. I defer to the team trends to identify how this Milwaukee team will respond to the adversity they face from blowing Game Five away. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Milwaukee has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Additionally, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Milwaukee enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 10 games with their 49.4% shooting percentage on Tuesday. But when the pressure mounted, the Bucks’ shooting failed — they scored only 17 points in the final 10 1/2 minutes of the fourth quarter. Milwaukee only has a 100 Offensive Rating in this series — and they have been playing at a slower pace than during the regular season. The 108 points they scored in Game Five were the most points they scored in the series. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a mess that is riddled with self-doubt at the free-throw line — and Milwaukee’s only answer for the “wall” defense that has stymied them in the postseason in the last three years is for teammates to make 3-pointers. But the Bucks are shooting just 29.3% from behind the arc in this series. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday have true shooting percentages below 47% in this series. The ball movement has diminished in this series for Milwaukee as well which is impacting their efficiency. After averaging 25.5 team assists per game in the regular season, they are getting only 18.4 team assists per game. The Nets won Game Five due to a Herculean effort from Kevin Durant who scored 49 points on 16 of 23 shooting from the field while playing every minute of the game. James Harden played over 45 minutes but he was clearly hobbled with his hamstring injury. He scored only 5 points while making only 1 of his 10 shots and missing all 8 of his shots from behind the arc. I do think Harden will play better tonight even on an injured hamstring — his performance on Tuesday was likely his floor. But Brooklyn should play better on defense tonight after allowing Milwaukee to nail 49.4% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. The Nets have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they have covered the points spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has revenge on their minds — as well as extending their season at least one more game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when avenging a loss on the road. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Brooklyn Nets (501) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-17-21 |
Nets v. Bucks UNDER 221 |
Top |
89-104 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (501) and the Milwaukee Bucks (502) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (55-27) took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 114-108 victory at home as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Milwaukee (52-29) has lost three of their last five games as they return home looking to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets won Game Five due to a Herculean effort from Kevin Durant who scored 49 points on 16 of 23 shooting from the field while playing every minute of the game. It will be difficult for Durant to come close to repeating that effort — especially with fatigue being an issue. James Harden played over 45 minutes but he was clearly hobbled with his hamstring injury. He scored only 5 points while making only 1 of his 10 shots and missing all 8 of his shots from behind the arc. Brooklyn shot 49.4% from the field on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. Despite posting a historical 118.3 Offensive Rating in the regular season (despite injuries to Durant, Harden, and Kyrie Irving) before a 130.1 Offensive Rating in their first-round playoff series with Boston, the Nets have just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series — and they are averaging just 107 PPG against the Bucks in this series. But Brooklyn should play better on defense tonight after allowing Milwaukee to nail 49.4% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. The Nets have played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Milwaukee enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 10 games with their 49.4% shooting percentage on Tuesday. But when the pressure mounted, the Bucks’ shooting failed — they scored only 17 points in the final 10 1/2 minutes of the fourth quarter. Milwaukee only has a 100 Offensive Rating in this series — and they have been playing at a slower pace than during the regular season. The 108 points they scored in Game Five were the most points they scored in the series. With the oddsmakers setting the Game One number just under 240, some bettors may think the Under trend is completed — and the Over is the smart play again. However, I suspect that the 108 points for the Bucks were more likely their scoring ceiling at this point. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a mess that is riddled with self-doubt at the free-throw line — and Milwaukee’s only answer for the “wall” defense that has stymied them in the postseason in the last three years is for teammates to make 3-pointers. But the Bucks are shooting just 29.3% from behind the arc in this series. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday have true shooting percentages below 47% in this series. The ball movement has diminished in this series for Milwaukee as well which is impacting their efficiency. After averaging 25.5 team assists per game in the regular season, they are getting only 18.4 team assists per game. The Bucks have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Milwaukee has also played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total at home after an upset loss on the road. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 25-10-1 in the Bucks’ last 36 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. While Milwaukee’s offensive attack has struggled in this series, their efforts on defense remain elite.
FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have played 7 of their last 10 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the playoff series. The Under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 games between these two teams — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing in Milwaukee. 25* NBA 2nd Round Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (501) and the Milwaukee Bucks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-16-21 |
Clippers v. Jazz -2.5 |
|
119-111 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (584) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (583) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (58-23) has lost two games in a row after dropping Game Four of this series in a 118-104 loss in the Staples Center to the Clippers as a 5.5-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (53-30) evened this series at 2-2 with the win.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Utah lost the two games in Los Angeles by 14 and 26 points — but they have bounced back to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. Returning home should help. Donovan Mitchell appears slowed by a right ankle injury — but his teammates should be better back in Salt Lake City where they make 39.2% of their 3-pointers as a team. And while it would be foolish to assume that Michael Conley will return for this game for betting purposes, he is questionable tonight while trending in the right direction. If Conley does play, he not only helps the Utah offense with his playmaking but also on defense since he remains a skilled on-the-ball defender. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 home games with the Total listed in the 220 to 229.5 point range — and they have covered 4 straight home games when favored. Utah has also covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a victory by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road after winning their previous two games as a favorite. The Clippers have declared Kawhi Leonard out tonight from the knee injury he suffered after colliding with the Jazz’s Joe Ingles with just 4:35 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Leonard’s loss hurts Los Angeles on both ends of the court — but his loss will probably impact their offensive attack the most since he is the team’s primary scorer. Paul George has a long history of not being reliable as the primary scorer in the playoffs. Everyone’s role for the Clippers becomes more important without Leonard. Marcus Morris broke out of his shooting slump on Monday by nailing 5 of his 6 shots from behind the arc — but he made only 1 of his 16 shots from 3-point range in the first three games of this series even with Leonard available as a safety blanket. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 playoff games when tied in the series — and the Jazz have covered their last 3 playoff games when the series was tied. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Utah Jazz (584) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (583). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-16-21 |
Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 222 |
Top |
119-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (583) and the Utah Jazz (584) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (53-30) evened this series at 2-2 with their 118-104 win against the Jazz as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday. Utah (58-23) has lost two games in a row after riding a six-game winning streak.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 9-2-1 in the Clippers’ last 12 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least 10 points. The Clippers have declared Kawhi Leonard out tonight from the knee injury he suffered after colliding with the Jazz’s Joe Ingles with just 4:35 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Leonard’s loss hurts Los Angeles on both ends of the court — but his loss will probably impact their offensive attack the most since he is the team’s primary scorer. Paul George has a long history of not being reliable as the primary scorer in the playoffs. Everyone’s role for the Clippers becomes more important without Leonard. Marcus Morris broke out of his shooting slump on Monday by nailing 5 of his 6 shots from behind the arc — but he made only 1 of his 16 shots from 3-point range in the first three games of this series even with Leonard available as a safety blanket. The Under is 19-9-1 in Los Angeles’ last 29 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home — and they have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Utah has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a loss by 10 or more points. And while the Jazz have not covered the point spread in the last two games in this series, they have then played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Utah is dealing with its own injury issues. Donovan Mitchell made just 9 of 26 shots from the field in Game Four as the right ankle injury he suffered seems to be impacting his play. With a 42.6% usage rate for the Jazz on offense, he may be wearing down. Michael Conley is questionable to return to the court for the first time in this series — if he does play, he not only helps the Utah offense with his playmaking but also on defense since he remains a skilled on-the-ball defender.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in Salt Lake City against the Jazz. 25* NBA Bailout Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (583) and the Utah Jazz (584). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-15-21 |
Bucks v. Nets UNDER 221 |
|
108-114 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (571) and the Brooklyn Nets (572) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (52-28) evened this series at 2-2 with their 107-96 upset victory at home against the Nets as a 2-point underdog. Brooklyn (54-27) had won four games in a row before the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss. And while Brooklyn had covered the point spread in their previous five games, they have then played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least four of their last five games. The Nets return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. The Nets will be without Kyrie Irving tonight after he suffered an ankle injury on Sunday. James Harden will attempt to play tonight after not playing since the opening moments of Game One when he re-injured the hamstring that kept him out for the latter part of the regular season. As we have seen with Anthony Davis in these playoffs, attempting to play when injured is not the same as being effective on the court nor lasting into the second half. Brooklyn has played 4 straight Unders against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. Milwaukee only made 44.3% of their shots on Sunday — and it was still the best shooting effort in their last three games. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 34 points in the win on 14 of 26 shooting. Despite those nice numbers, I am not buying it. Antetokounmpo continued with his struggles and antics at the free-throw line as he missed five of his ten free throw attempts. He has made only 11 of his 29 (37.9%) free throws in this series. He has the yips — and it is affecting his play on the court even when he is not on the line. His fear of dealing with the demons in his head that he uses all ten seconds allotted what the charity stripe in those of quieting them down contributes to him not playing as aggressively in attacking the basket — he doesn’t want to get fouled. His free-throw shooting in the first two games in Brooklyn was even worse as he made just 2 of his 10 shots. This makes the blue-print “wall” defense against Antetokounmpo even more effective — and it compels him to settle for 3-point shot attempts even though he has made only 4 of his 21 shots from behind the arc in this series. The Greek Freak’s good game came mostly on the heels of his teammates picked him up by making 16 of their 47 shots from 3-point land — with most of their converted 3s taking place in the first half. But the Bucks have not made more than 8 shots from downtown in any other game in this series — and they have a rough 20 of 88 (22.3%) shooting percentage from 3-point range in this series. Milwaukee goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 straight Unders — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Brooklyn. 10* NBA Milwaukee-Brooklyn TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (571) and the Brooklyn Nets (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-15-21 |
Bucks v. Nets +3.5 |
Top |
108-114 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (572) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (571) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (54-27) looks to rebound from their 107-96 upset loss at Milwaukee as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Milwaukee (52-28) has won six of their last eight games including the last two games to even this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS PLUS THE POINTS: Brooklyn looked shellshocked and out-of-synch after Kyrie Irving injured his ankle — he only played 17:17 minutes in Game Four. Irving is out for tonight’s game. But the Nets did get some help back with Jeff Green returning to action after missing the previous six games. He played 26:33 minutes on Sunday with eight points and five rebounds. He helps on both ends of the court. Brooklyn still has Kevin Durant to carry the team — both he and his supporting cast should play better back on their home court. Durant made only 20 of his 53 shots in the last two games in Milwaukee. Joe Harris was just 3 of 13 from behind the arc in Games Three and Four. But Harris led the NBA with a 47.5% clip from behind the arc during the regular season — and he was even better at home in the Barclays Center where he nailed 49.7% of his 3-point attempts. As a team, Brooklyn only made 18 of their 65 shots from 3-point land — and that 27.7% shooting percentage is far below their 39.4% mark from 3-point land at home. Durant should play better with two days to mentally prepare for having to be the primary scorer tonight — but he should get help back at home. The Nets are 14-2 straight-up at home since the start of April — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games at home. Brooklyn has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog. And in the last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, Brooklyn has covered the point spread 6 times. Milwaukee only made 44.3% of their shots on Sunday — and it was still the best shooting effort in their last three games. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by double-digits. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 34 points in the win on 14 of 26 shooting. Despite those nice numbers, I am not buying it. Antetokounmpo continued with his struggles and antics at the free-throw line as he missed five of his ten free throw attempts. He has made only 11 of his 29 (37.9%) free throws in this series. He has the yips — and it is affecting his play on the court even when he is not on the line. His fear of dealing with the demons in his head that he uses all ten seconds allotted what the charity stripe in those of quieting them down contributes to him not playing as aggressively in attacking the basket — he doesn’t want to get fouled. His free-throw shooting in the first two games in Brooklyn was even worse as he made just 2 of his 10 shots. This makes the blue-print “wall” defense against Antetokounmpo even more effective — and it compels him to settle for 3-point shot attempts even though he has made only 4 of his 21 shots from behind the arc in this series. The Greek Freak’s good game came mostly on the heels of his teammates picked him up by making 16 of their 47 shots from 3-point land — with most of their converted 3s taking place in the first half. But the Bucks have not made more than 8 shots from downtown in any other game in this series — and they have a rough 20 of 88 (22.3%) shooting percentage from 3-point range in this series. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning two games in a row at home. And while the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And while the first four games in this series have finished Under the Total, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing four Unders in a row. Now the Bucks hit the road again where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. Furthermore, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The news that James Harden will attempt to take the court tonight as he deals with his hamstring injury. We will see if he can be effective — but he can only help the cause. Even without Harden, I think Brooklyn wins tonight (but I recommend taking the points for some insurance). 25* NBA 2nd Round Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the Brooklyn Nets (572) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (571). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-14-21 |
Jazz +5 v. Clippers |
|
104-118 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 51 m |
Show
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At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (563) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (564) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (58-22) had their six-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 132-106 loss at the Staples Center to the Clippers as a 4.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (52-30) still trails 2-1 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ PLUS THE POINTS: Utah allowed the Clippers to make 56.2% of their shots in Game Three which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 47 games. Utah had the third-best Defensive Efficiency in the regular season by holding their opponents to just 107.5 points per 100 possessions so they should tighten up on the defensive end of the court. Utah has also covered the point spread in 34 of their last 53 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Jazz stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in Los Angeles against the Clippers. Utah has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. Los Angeles’ 56.2% shooting percentage was the best offensive effort in their last seven games. But the Clippers are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a double-digit victory. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games.
FINAL TAKE: Utah has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 10* NBA Monday Late Show Bailout with the Utah Jazz (563) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-14-21 |
Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 224 |
Top |
104-118 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (563) and the Los Angeles Clippers (564) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (58-22) had their six-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 132-106 loss at the Staples Center to the Clippers as a 4.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (52-30) still trails 2-1 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jazz allowed the Clippers to make 56.2% of their shots in Game Three which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 47 games. Utah has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at 55% of their shots. The Jazz have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after giving up at least 130 points in their last game. Additionally, Utah has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Los Angeles’ 56.2% shooting percentage was the best offensive effort in their last seven games. But the Clippers have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Head coach Tyronn Lue made a defensive adjustment on defending Donovan Mitchell on Saturday by having his primary defender challenge him earlier up the court. That tactical change helped the Clippers play their best defensive game in the series, overall while limiting the Jazz to 42.9% shooting. Los Angeles stays at home where the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Additionally, the Under is 20-7-3 in the Clippers’ last 30 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and the Under is 10-4-2 in their last 16 games in the playoffs when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Michael Conley has been declared out for this game with the hamstring injury that has kept him out of this series. The Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. 25* NBA 2nd Round Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (563) and the Los Angeles Clippers (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-14-21 |
76ers v. Hawks +3.5 |
|
100-103 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (562) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (561) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (46-34) has lost the last two games in this series after their 127-111 loss at home to the 76ers as a 1.5-point favorite on Friday. Philadelphia (55-25) has won eight of their last ten games while taking a 2-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta allowed the 76ers to make 58.2% of their shots on Friday which was the worst defensive effort in their last 12 games. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after giving up at least 125 points in their last game. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in a decisive 50 of their last 73 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games at home after a loss by 10 or more points. And while they lost Game Two by 16 points, they have then covered the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games after losing two in a row by 15 or more points. The Hawks only took 23 shots from behind the arc in Game Three — 11 shots below their average of 34 shots from 3-point range per game. They should get back to their rhythm on offense tonight. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games at home — and they have covered the point spread 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Philadelphia’s 58.2% shooting percentage was the best offensive performance in their last five games. The 76ers have made at least 51.2% of their shots in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after making at least 50% of their shots in four straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Additionally, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after winning two in a row by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after covering their last two games as a favorite. And while Game Three flew Over the 224.5 point Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Philly stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 road games when playing their second game in five days. The Sixers are also just 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Philadelphia will be without Danny Green tonight who is out with a right calf strain.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in Atlanta. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 home games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 10 or more points on their home court. 20* NBA Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Atlanta Hawks (562) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-13-21 |
Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 223.5 |
|
125-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (553) and the Denver Nuggets (554) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (58-23) has won six games in a row to take a 3-0 lead in this series after their 116-102 victory on the road against the Nuggets as a 2-point underdog on Friday. Denver (51-30) looks to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns’ offense may get most of the attention — but the defense has been outstanding for head coach Monty Williams’ team. They have held five of their last six opponents to no better than 41.8% shooting. Phoenix has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset victory by double-digits on the road as an underdog. The Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when playing with one day of rest. The Suns have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total as a favorite. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better, the Under is 6-1-1. Denver has lost all three games in this series by at least 14 points — and they have played 49 of their last 78 games at home Under the Total after losing at least two in a row by at least 10 points. And while each game in this series has seen at least 218 combined points, the Nuggets have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after playing at least three games where at least 215 combined points were scored. Denver has also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. The handicapping instincts say to play the Nuggets tonight for a number of reasons — but I am passing due to my concerns over Michael Porter, Jr. The second scoring option to Nikola Jokic has been hobbled with a back injury which probably has much to do with him not scoring more than 15 points in the first three games of this series. The season-ending injury to Jamal Murray and now he slowed Porter leaves the Nuggets without complementary scorers for Jokic. The league MVP scored 32 points with 20 rebonds and 10 assists in Game Three — yet they only managed 102 points. They scored 105 and 98 points in Game One and Two. The Under is 8-1-2 in Denver’s last 11 games in the Western Conference Semifinals — and they have played 5 of their last 8 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in the Pepsi Center in Denver. And in the Nuggets’ last 6 games when avenging a double-digit loss at home, Denver has played 5 of these games Under the Total. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (553) and the Denver Nuggets (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-13-21 |
Nets -1 v. Bucks |
|
96-107 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (551) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (552) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (54-26) had their four-game winning streak snapped with their 86-83 loss on the road against the Bucks as a 3-point underdog. Milwaukee (51-28) pulled within a 2-1 deficit in the series with the victory.
REASONS TO THE NETS PLUS THE POINTS: Game Three of this series was a fascinating result (from afar). Milwaukee made only 37.8% of their shots in the win which was the lowest field goal percentage of the season. But they were able to win the game via their ferocious play on defense — they held Brooklyn to 36.2% shooting which was their second-best defensive game of the season since Game Two of the regular season (77 games ago). I track these numbers because I want to identify outlier performances to bet against. In this instance, I suspect those numbers are a harbinger of things to come in this series — they are trends rather than outliers. The Bucks scored only 86 points in Game Two on 44.0% shooting. The four-game sweep against Miami temporarily obscured that Milwaukee has not solved its “wall” problem that opposing teams have used in the postseason to neutralize Giannis Antetokounmpo. With the Bucks playing four shooters outside the 3-point line, the Greek Freak has success in the regular season driving the lane with all the cleared space. But their playoff opponents have not taken the bait but instead, play a wall in the interior — a quasi-roaming 2-3 zone defense — to thwart these potential Antetokounmpo drives. An active Antetokounmpo can challenge this defense — exerting energy and getting to the free-throw line. Or, he can play outside as well and take 3-pointers. Or, he can settle for two-point jump shots just inside the arc. Or, he can drive the lane and dish to his open opponents. None of this works if Giannis is off his game … and Giannis is off his game. He has missed 6 of 19 free throw attempts while hushing the Milwaukee crowd to not cheer “MVP” at the line and twice getting whistled for a ten-second violation as he tries to quiet the demons in his head at the stripe. He has the yips. And his fear of failure at the free throw line is taking away his ambition to drive. So he settles for jumpers — yet he made only 1 of 8 shots from behind the arc in Game Three. If he takes a shot just inside the arc, the defense has already won given the low probability of that 2-point shot. Antetokounmpo can dish to his teammates — but the team made only 6 of their 31 (19.3%) shots from downtown. The whole team senses their leader’s anxiety. The Plan B to Giannis not making shots is the Bucks’ system that emphasizes maximizing shot value from 3-pointers. The critics love to blame Budenholzer for his inability to adapt — but there is simply little he can turn to. Rather than blaming Budenholzer, maybe he should be credited for getting the most out of the talent available to him. The team needs a reliable complementary scoring option to Giannis — but Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday may be third options being asked to take on the number two role. And what if Antetokounmpo is really not a number one option himself? Blame Budenholzer! Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a narrow win by three points or less. They have failed to cover the pint spread in 10 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Brooklyn has not shot worse than 36.2% in 37 games — so they should shoot better this afternoon. They missed 20 of their 53 uncontested shots in Game Three — they were flat. But the Nets have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Brooklyn has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 playoff games as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Nets have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 63 games when on the road playing with revenge. 10* NBA Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Brooklyn Nets (551) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-21 |
Nets v. Bucks UNDER 229.5 |
Top |
96-107 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (551) and the Milwaukee Bucks (552) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (51-28) won their first game in this series with their 86-83 victory at home against the Nets as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday. Brooklyn (54-26) had their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Game Three of this series was a fascinating result (from afar). Milwaukee made only 37.8% of their shots in the win which was the lowest field goal percentage of the season. But they were able to win the game via their ferocious play on defense — they held Brooklyn to 36.2% shooting which was their second-best defensive game of the season since Game Two of the regular season (77 games ago). I track these numbers because I want to identify outlier performances to bet against. In this instance, I suspect those numbers are a harbinger of things to come in this series — they are trends rather than outliers. The Bucks scored only 86 points in Game Two on 44.0% shooting. The four-game sweep against Miami temporarily obscured that Milwaukee has not solved its “wall” problem that opposing teams have used in the postseason to neutralize Giannis Antetokounmpo. With the Bucks playing four shooters outside the 3-point line, the Greek Freak has success in the regular season driving the lane with all the cleared space. But their playoff opponents have not taken the bait but instead, play a wall in the interior — a quasi-roaming 2-3 zone defense — to thwart these potential Antetokounmpo drives. An active Antetokounmpo can challenge this defense — exerting energy and getting to the free-throw line. Or, he can play outside as well and take 3-pointers. Or, he can settle for two-point jump shots just inside the arc. Or, he can drive the lane and dish to his open opponents. None of this works if Giannis is off his game … and Giannis is off his game. He has missed 6 of 19 free throw attempts while hushing the Milwaukee crowd to not cheer “MVP” at the line and twice getting whistled for a ten-second violation as he tries to quiet the demons in his head at the stripe. He has the yips. And his fear of failure at the free-throw line is taking away his ambition to drive. So he settles for jumpers — yet he made only 1 of 8 shots from behind the arc in Game Three. If he takes a shot just inside the arc, the defense has already won given the low probability of that 2-point shot. Antetokounmpo can dish to his teammates — but the team made only 6 of their 31 (19.3%) shots from downtown. The whole team senses their leader’s anxiety. The Plan B to Giannis not making shots is the Bucks’ system that emphasizes maximizing shot value from 3-pointers. The critics love to blame Budenholzer for his inability to adapt — but there is simply little he can turn to. Rather than blaming Budenholzer, maybe he should be credited for getting the most out of the talent available to him. The team needs a reliable complementary scoring option to Giannis — but Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday may be third options being asked to take on the number two role. And what if Antetokounmpo is really not a number one option himself? Blame Budenholzer! Where Budenhozler continues to adapt is on defense — that is the route from which the Bucks can win this series. They have slowed down the high-powered Nets offense to just 107.7 PPG. And the pace is slowing down. After averaging 102.2 possessions per game in the regular season, Milwaukee's pace was 97.7 on Thursday. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 6 straight Unders against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn should have fresh legs on defense — they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. And in their last 35 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Nets have played 24 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight meetings Under the Total. I expect more of the same with the market slow to react to the new realities of this series. 25* NBA 2nd Round ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (551) and the Milwaukee Bucks (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-21 |
Jazz v. Clippers -4 |
Top |
106-132 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (542) minus the points versus the Utah Jazz (541) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (51-30) returns home to the Staples Center down 0-2 in this series after their 117-111 loss on the road in Game Two on Thursday. Utah (58-21) has won six straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Once again, Los Angeles has to dig themselves out of an 0-2 hole in this postseason. No team in NBA history has rebounded from two 0-2 deficits in the playoffs — but at least we know that the Clippers are resilient. They went on a 46-23 run when trailing by 21 points in the second half in Game Two. Head coach Tyronn Lue deployed a zone defense to help trigger the rally. But Los Angeles still allowed the Jazz to make 55.3% of their shots in that game. That was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have surrendered in their last seven games. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 55% of their shots. And while LA has allowed their last three opponents to score at least 111 points, they have then covered the point spread in 58 of their last 91 games after allowing at least 105 points in three straight games — including 13 of these 21 situations this season. The Clippers have also covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 56 games after losing two of their last three games. Returning home will help the Los Angeles role players shoot better. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Los Angeles has also coerced the point spread in 6 of their last 9 playoff games when trailing in the series. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games when favored. Utah enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 13 games with their 55.3% shooting percentage. But the Jazz have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. But now Utah goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. The Jazz are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 65 games when motivated to avenge a same-season loss. 25* NBA 2nd Round Saturday ABC-TV Playoff Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Clippers (542) minus the points versus the Utah Jazz (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-11-21 |
Suns v. Nuggets -1.5 |
|
116-102 |
Loss |
-109 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (534) minus the point(s) versus the Phoenix Suns (533) and in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (51-29) has lost the first two games in this series after their 123-98 loss on the road against the Suns as a 5.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Phoenix (57-23) has won five games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINT(S): Denver had their worst shooting game in their last four contests by making only 40% of their shots. They return home where they are scoring 117.9 PPG on 48.4% shooting and 37.8% shooting from behind the arc. Unfortunately for head coach Michael Malone, the 47.9% shooting percentage they allowed Phoenix to generate was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. The Nuggets should play better at home in this must-win game. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. And while Denver has lost the first two games of this series by 17 and 25 points, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 36 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. The Nuggets have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when trailing in the playoff series. Phoenix may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a win by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning five games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when avenging two straight losses by 10 or more points. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Denver Nuggets (534) minus the point(s) versus the Phoenix Suns (533). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-11-21 |
Suns v. Nuggets OVER 222.5 |
Top |
116-102 |
Loss |
-106 |
6 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (533) and the Denver Nuggets (534) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (57-23) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 123-98 victory at home against the Nuggets as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Denver (51-29) has lost three of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Even with the easy win, the Suns made 47.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They have been an offensive juggernaut in this series against the suspect Nuggets’ defense — they are scoring 125.6 points per 100 possessions in this series. Phoenix has an effective field goal percentage of 59.7% in the first two games while nailing 40.3% of their 3-point attempts. Denver has allowed their opponents to make 42.2% of their shots from behind the arc in the postseason. Chris Paul looks healthy again after playing through that stinger injury. He scored 17 points on 6 of 10 shooting while assisting on another 15 baskets and not committing a turnover. The Suns have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have also played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total after scoring at least 120 points. They go on the road where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Phoenix has also played 12 of their last 16 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Denver had their worst shooting game in their last four contests by making only 40% of their shots. They return home where they are scoring 117.9 PPG on 48.4% shooting and 37.8% shooting from behind the arc. Unfortunately for head coach Michael Malone, the 47.9% shooting percentage they allowed Phoenix to generate was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. They have allowed the Suns to score at least 112 points in four of their five meetings this season. The Nuggets have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. They return home where the Over is 39-19-2 in their last 60 games. They have played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 220s. Denver has also played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging two straight losses against their opponent. 25* NBA 2nd Round ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (533) and the Denver Nuggets (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-10-21 |
Nets v. Bucks -3.5 |
|
83-86 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (522) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (521) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (50-28) looks to pick themselves off the mat after getting humiliated in Game Two with their 125-86 loss at Brooklyn as a 1.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee has looked horrible in this series with Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the way with 20 missed free throws in his 43 attempts at the charity stripe. Yes, you have to question the psyche of this team after getting upset in the playoffs to Miami last year. And while I think the critics of head coach Mike Budenholzer are largely wanna-be ankle-biters, there is no question that he is on the hot seat as this team’s head coach moving forward. The regular season successes from this team are analytically-driven where they live by the 3 — and that means they can sometimes die by the 3. Khris Middleton has made only 13 of his 43 shots from the field. Antetokounmpo was too passive in Game Two as he too often settles for jump shots rather than drive the lane to take advantage of the Nets’ lack of a rim protector. The Bucks made just 8 of their 27 shots from behind the arc on Monday. Returning home should help where they are 28-10 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games after playing two straight Unders as these first two games of this series have finished. More ball movement should address many of the shooting problems for this team — and what Antetokounmpo continues to experience when combatting the “wall” defense that attempts to mitigate his drives to the basket. Milwaukee had only 14 team assists in Game Two. The Bucks make 48.9% of their shots at home which includes a 39.7% mark from behind the arc which helps them generate 120.8 PPG. The role players should play better which should help Antetokounmpo, Middleton, and Jrue Holiday. The effort level for Milwaukee should be the best it has been in the entire series. The Bucks have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after an upset loss by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset loss by double-digits as a road favorite. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not scoring at least 90 points in their last game. And in their last 15 games after losing two of their last three games, they have covered the point spread in 12 of these games. Brooklyn made 52.1% of their shots in Game Two which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage for the Bucks in their last 10 games. The Nets nailed 21 of their 42 shots from behind the arc in that game. Remember that the Bucks held Miami to just an anemic 95.4 points per 100 possession in the opening round of the playoffs. And this is a team that can get lackadaisical — and they can get lulled into playing “my turn” on offense with their star players rather than to stay disciplined in ball movements to create the best scoring opportunities regardless of star power. The Nets’ defense can also be lacking in effort — they were just 21st in the league in Defensive Rating in the regular season. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win at home by 20 or more points. The Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after holding their opponent to no more than 90 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Once again, Brooklyn will be without James Harden and Jeff Green for this game. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 20 or more points. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Milwaukee Bucks (522) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-09-21 |
Nuggets +6 v. Suns |
|
98-123 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (511) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (512) in Game Two of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (51-28) had their two game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 122-105 loss at Phoenix as a 6-point underdog in the opening game of this series. Phoenix (56-23) has won four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINTS: The Nuggets played their worst defensive game in the playoffs on Monday after perhaps suffering an emotional hangover from their difficult six-game series with Portland. Denver allowed Phoenix to make 54.1% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 11 games. The Nuggets saw the Trail Blazers shoot 50.6% from the field in Game Six of that series last Thursday — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing their last two opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field. Denver made only 46.7% of their shots on Monday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last three games. Nikola Jokic was just 10 of 23 from the field in the game for 22 points. It was just the third time in 79 games this season that Jokic’s point total was below his shot attempts number. Jokic did not attempt a free throw attempt either which had only happened four other times this season. Phoenix’s Deandre Ayton was only whistled for one personal foul in his 38 minutes of play. Jokic only had three assists despite averaging 8.3 Assists-Per-Game for the season. He should be more active and aggressive tonight which will help the Nuggets approach or top their 118.6 Points-Per-Game scoring average in the playoffs. Michael Porter only scored 15 points in Game One while not playing for most of the second half with a sore back. He has initially listed as questionable, but he has been upgraded as probable to play tonight. He should play better tonight as well in his role as the primary scoring complement to Jokic. Phoenix is riding high with four straight victories with three of the victories by 13 or more points and all four wins by at least eight points. This young Suns that is inexperienced in the playoffs may be due for a letdown tonight. The Phoenix ranked sixth in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency — but while they allowed 108.2 points per 100 possessions in the first half of the season, those numbers declined to a 112.5 points per possession in the second half of the season which ranked just 21st in the league. While they did upset the reigning NBA champions last round, that Lakers team was hobbled with both Anthony Davis and LeBron James dealing with injuries. The Nuggets may be challenged on defense, but that is not the type of team that Phoenix played their best basketball against. Denver allows 111.0 PPG on 47.0% shooting — and the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games against teams who allow their opponents to shoot at least 46% of their shots. Phoenix has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games against teams who allow at least 110 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Suns may win this series — but I expect it to be a competitive and likely long series. Expect a close game tonight that the Nuggets may steal. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Denver Nuggets (511) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-09-21 |
Nuggets v. Suns OVER 222 |
Top |
98-123 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512) in Game Two of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (51-28) had their two game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 122-105 loss at Phoenix as a 6-point underdog in the opening game of this series. Phoenix (56-23) has won four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets only made 46.7% of their shots on Monday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last three games. Nikola Jokic was just 10 of 23 from the field in the game for 22 points. It was just the third time in 79 games this season that Jokic’s point total was below his shot attempts number. Jokic did not attempt a free throw attempt either which had only happened four other times this season. Phoenix’s Deandre Ayton was only whistled for one personal foul in his 38 minutes of play. Jokic only had three assists despite averaging 8.3 Assists-Per-Game for the season. He should be more active and aggressive tonight which will help the Nuggets approach or top their 118.6 Points-Per-Game scoring average in the playoffs. Denver has played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Over is 18-7-1 in the Nuggets’ last 26 games after a loss by 10 or more points. Michael Porter only scored 15 points in Game One while not playing for most of the second half with a sore back. He has initially listed as questionable, but he has been upgraded as probable to play tonight. He should play better tonight as well in his role as the primary scoring complement to Jokic. Denver stays on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Denver has played 6 of their last 7 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog. Phoenix has seen the Over go 34-16-1 in their last 51 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 24-9-1 in their last 34 games after a point spread victory. The Suns have also played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. Phoenix makes 49.8% of their shots at home this season with them averaging 115.8 PPG. They had balanced scoring against the Nuggets on Monday with four players scoring at least 20 points. Chris Paul looked as healthy as he has since suffering the stinger injury in the Lakers series. He made 8 of 14 shots for 23 points and added 11 assists. The Suns have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total at home against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on the road. Phoenix has also played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* NBA 2nd Round Wednesday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-08-21 |
Clippers v. Jazz -3 |
|
109-112 |
Push |
0 |
5 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (504) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (503) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (56-21) has won four in a row after dispatching Memphis in five games with their 126-110 win as a 9-point favorite last Wednesday. Los Angeles (51-28) has won four of their last five games after defeating Dallas in Game Seven of their playoff series by a 126-111 score as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Utah averaged 123.4 points per 100 possessions in their opening-round playoff series with the Grizzlies — and after Donovan Mitchell returned for Game Two, they increased the scoring efficiency to 126.4 points per 100 possessions in the final four games of that series. Mitchell was spectacular with a 28.5 Points-Per-Game scoring average with 5.8 Assists-Per-Game. He made 45% of his shots from the field and 40% of his shots from bending the arc. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games after a win on their home court. Additionally, Utah has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win. The Jazz have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. They stay at home after getting six days off where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Utah has also covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games when favored from 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles saved their best 3-point shooting performance for Game Seven as they nailed 20 of their 43 shots (46.5%) en route to a 50% shooting percentage for the game. That was the Clippers’ best shooting effort in their last four games. But now they go from a suspect Mavericks defense to the elite defensive play of this Utah team. The Jazz’s defense will present a problem for the Clippers — they ranked third in the NBA by holding their opponents to 107.5 points per 100 possessions. Utah allowed only 10.9 make 3-pointers per game, the lowest in the league during the regular season. They also lead the NBA by holding their opponents to just 50.4% shooting inside the arc. Los Angeles is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a double-digit victory. And while the Clippers have covered the point spread in their last two games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after covering the point spread in their last two games.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles may have rallied from an 0-2 deficit to defeat Dallas last round — but this organization (and Paul George) still have much to prove in the playoffs. The Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the Western Conference Semifinals. The Jazz will be without Michael Conley tonight which is dealing with a mild right hamstring injury — but Mitchell and the Utah jump shooter should still prevail rested and ready on their home court. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Utah Jazz (504) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-08-21 |
Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 220.5 |
Top |
109-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (503) and the Utah Jazz (504) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (51-28) has won four of their last five games after defeating Dallas in Game Seven of their playoff series by a 126-111 score as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. Utah (56-21) has won four in a row after dispatching Memphis in five games with their 126-110 win as a 9-point favorite last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers saved their best 3-point shooting performance for Game Seven as they nailed 20 of their 43 shots (46.5%) en route to a 50% shooting percentage for the game. That was Los Angeles’ best shooting effort in their last four games. They also allowed the Mavericks to nail 49.5% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five contests. The Under is 7-2-1 in the Clippers’ last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Clippers go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and the Under is 18-8-1 in their last 27 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Utah may be rusty with their shooting touch after the six-day layoff after ending their series with the Grizzlies. They made 51.6% of their shots in Game Five which was the best shooting effort in their previous three games. The Jazz have played five straight Overs — but they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Toal after playing at least four straight Overs. Utah has allowed at least 110 points in five straight contests — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 105 points in at least four straight games. They also have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 105 points in five straight games. The Jazz’s defense will present a problem for the Clippers — they ranked third in the NBA by holding their opponents to 107.5 points per 100 possessions. Utah allowed only 10.9 make 3-pointers per game, the lowest in the league during the regular season. They also lead the NBA by holding their opponents to just 50.4% shooting inside the arc. The Jazz host the first two games of this series where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 24 of their last 35 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Under is 6-0-2 in the Clippers’ last 8 games in Western Conference Semifinals. 25* NBA 2nd Round Tuesday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (503) and the Utah Jazz (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-08-21 |
Hawks v. 76ers -5 |
|
102-118 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (502) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (501) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (53-25) looks to bounce back from their 128-124 upset loss to the Hawks in Game One of this series. Atlanta (46-32) has won nine of their last ten games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philly came out flat on Sunday even with Joel Embiid's surprise return to action despite the meniscus tear in his right knee. They allowed the Hawks to make 63.4% of their shots in the first half en route to their 51.2% shooting percentage for the game. That was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. The 76ers’ outscored the Hawks in the second half by a 70-54 margin once they refocused at halftime. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after suffering an upset loss. They are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games with the Total set from 220 to 229.5 points. Philly has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored. Atlanta closed out their series with the New York Knicks with an upset 103-89 victory on the road as a 1-point underdog. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win. And while Atlanta has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher. The Hawks posted an Offensive Rating of 118.5 in Game One with an effective field goal percentage of 62.8%. That is not likely to happen again tonight.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. With home-court now in hand, the Hawks may not be able to stop themselves from letting up a bit tonight. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia 76ers (502) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-07-21 |
Nuggets v. Suns -5 |
|
105-122 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (584) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (583) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (55-23) has won three in a row after their 113-100 upset win in Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 2-point underdog on Thursday to close that series out in six games. Denver (51-27) has won four of their last five games after defeating the Trail Blazers in six games last round with their 126-115 win in Portland as a 5.5-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix should build off their momentum. They are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a win against a divisional opponent. The Suns have covered the point spread in three straight games while scoring at least 113 points in their last two games. Phoenix has then covered the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games after covering the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games after scoring at least 111 points in two straight games. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Suns have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games with the Total set in the 220s — and they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Denver made 51.2% of their shots to close out their series with the Blazers which was the highest field goal percentage in their last four games. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after winning on the road by 10 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 60 games after winning two in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two in a row against a Northwest Division opponent. Furthermore, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with at least three days of rest. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Nuggets remained thin at guard with Will Barton and P.J. Dozier still injured along with Jamal Murray out the season. Denver will continue to rely on Austin Rivers, Facundo Campazzo, and Monte Morris. Rivers was out of the league in March after being cut by Oklahoma City while Campazzo is a 30-year-old rookie and Morris is a former second-round pick who usually plays minimal minutes. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 opening games to a new playoff series.
FINAL TAKE: Denver won the last meeting between these two teams back in January by a 120-112 score — and Phoenix has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games at home when playing with revenge. 10* NBA Monday Late Show Bailout with the Phoenix Suns (584) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (583). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-07-21 |
Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 221.5 |
|
105-122 |
Loss |
-107 |
4 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (583) and the Phoenix Suns (584) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (51-27) has won four of their last five games after defeating the Trail Blazers in six games last round with their 126-115 win in Portland as a 5.5-point underdog on Thursday. Phoenix (55-23) has won three in a row after their 113-100 upset win in Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 2-point underdog on Thursday to close that series out in six games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets made 51.2% of their shots to close out their series with the Blazers which was the highest field goal percentage in their last four games. Denver also allowed Portland to make 50.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset win by 10 or more points. Denver has also played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. They stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. The Under is also 6-0-2 in the Nuggets’ last 8 games in the Western Conference Semifinals. Phoenix made 50.7% of their shots in Game Six against the Lakers which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. They also saw Los Angeles make 41.8% of their shots which was actually the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. The Suns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a Pacific Division rival — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset victory against a divisional foe. Phoenix has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored. The Under is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix will be looking to avenge a 120-112 loss at Denver on January 23rd — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on their home court. 10* NBA Denver-Phoenix TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (583) and the Phoenix Suns (584). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-07-21 |
Bucks +2.5 v. Nets |
|
86-125 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (581) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Brooklyn Nets (582) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (50-27) had their four-game winning streak snapped with their 115-107 loss at Brooklyn as a 3.5-point underdog in Game One of this series on Saturday. Brooklyn (53-25) has won three straight games as well as 10 of their last 11 contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The Bucks endured the combination of some bad shooting luck and just an underachieving effort on the offensive end of the court on Saturday. They made only 6 of their 30 shots from behind the arc. They missed 8 of their 19 free throw attempts. They shot just 44.6% from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Milwaukee should approach their 48.6% field goal percentage along with their 38.3% mark from 3-point land and their 78.3% free throw percentage when on the road tonight. They should be encouraged by the 15 offensive rebounds they pulled down on Saturday. Their size advantage should help them get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities all series — and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez should dominate with their inside scoring. Milwaukee outrebounded the Nets by a 58-47 margin on Saturday. The Bucks attempted 101 shots in Game One after taking 99 shots in Game Four of their shots — and this is the style from which Mike Budenholzer’s team thrives. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 51 of their last 84 games after taking at least 90 shots in two straight games. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Milwaukee has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 second games to a new playoff series. Brooklyn has played their last two games Under the Total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after playing two straight Unders. Blake Griffin had a surprising breakout game on Saturday with 18 points and 14 rebounds while making four of his five shots from 3-point range. Griffin was also loose with the trash talk — but I am skeptical that a cocky and empowered Griffin is in the best long-term interests of the Nets. Brooklyn has only covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Nets failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against playoff teams with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving healthy and playing but without James Harden.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 6 of the last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 second games in a playoff series. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Milwaukee Bucks (581) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Brooklyn Nets (582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-07-21 |
Bucks v. Nets OVER 235 |
Top |
86-125 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (581) and the Brooklyn Nets (582) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (50-27) had their four-game winning streak snapped with their 115-107 loss at Brooklyn as a 3.5-point underdog in Game One of this series on Saturday. Brooklyn (53-25) has won three straight games as well as 10 of their last 11 contests.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks endured the combination of some bad shooting luck and just an underachieving effort on the offensive end of the court on Saturday. They made only 6 of their 30 shots from behind the arc. They missed 8 of their 19 free throw attempts. They shot just 44.6% from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Milwaukee should approach their 48.6% field goal percentage along with their 38.3% mark from 3-point land and their 78.3% free throw percentage when on the road tonight. They should be encouraged by the 15 offensive rebounds they pulled down on Saturday. Their size advantage should help them get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities all series — and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez should dominate with their inside scoring. Milwaukee outrebounded the Nets by a 58-47 margin — and they have outrebounded their last five opponents by at least 11 boards. The Bucks have played 41 of their last 63 games Over the Total after outrebounding their last two opponents by at least 10 boards. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least 10 boards — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after outrebounding their last five opponents by at least 10 boards. We had the Under for Game One — and that game finished well below the 239.5 point total. But Milwaukee has played 21 of their last 33 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. I expected rust for Game One — and now I expect fresh legs and better shooting. The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing their second game in five days. Milwaukee stays on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total on the road with the Total set at 230 or higher. The Bucks have also played 5 of their last 7 second games in a playoff series Over the Total. Brooklyn only made 46.9% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting percentage in their last three games. The team was rattled early after James Harden re-injuring his hamstring. The Nets will adjust to Harden’s absence tonight out of the gate. They play at a faster pace without Harden on the court since he prefers to slow things down when he gets a defender in isolation. And the modus operandi for rookie head coach Steve Nash to any problem is to play at a faster pace (what else from a devotee of Mike D’Antoni?). In the 19 games the Mets played without Harden in the regular season, the average combined score was 236. Brooklyn has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning two straight games at home. The Nets have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 35 of their last 57 games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee’s expected points based on their shot quality from 3-point range adds 15 points to their Total in Game One — and their expected points overall rise to 127. Kris Middleton only made 6 of 23 shots for 13 points — but his expected points based on his shot selection were 27 points. Brooklyn’s shot quality produced 123.5 expected points. Given the pace of play in Game One which I do not expect to change, the Regression Gods should see this game finish Over the Total. The Bucks have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing at Brooklyn. 25* NBA 2nd Round Monday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (581) and the Brooklyn Nets (582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-06-21 |
Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 211.5 |
|
111-126 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 3:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (573) and the Los Angeles Clippers (574) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (45-33) looks to bounce back from their 104-97 loss at home against the Clippers as a 3-point underdog in Game Six. Los Angeles (50-28) has won three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 7-1-1 in the Clippers’ last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Head coach Tyron Lue has made some critical adjustments in this series to slow down the Mavericks’ dynamic offensive attack. He decided to simply not play Ivica Zubic when Luka Doncic is on the court since he was getting torched on the pick-and-roll. Going with a small lineup of Reggie Jackson and Nicolas Batum for Zubic and Patrick Beverley has been a game-changer for the Clippers. Beverley is not the same player on defense — and he has never been much of a scorer, so he is a liability if he has lost his defensive prowess. And now facing elimination, Kawhi Leonard is finally defending Doncic — he held him to 2 of 6 shooting in the times he guarded him on Friday. I expect Leonard to take on this defensive assignment even more for this Game Seven. The Clippers held the Mavericks to 41.6% shooting which was the highest field goal percentage that Dallas has managed in the last three games. Los Angeles has played 24 of their last 32 home games Under the Total after holding their last three opponents to no higher than 42% shooting. The Under is 7-1-1 in the Clippers’ last 9 games at home. The Mavericks were on fire with their 3-point shooting by making 47.2% and 52.9% of their 3-pointers in the first two games in this series. But the Regression Gods made their appearance and the Mavs have not been the same from behind the arc. They made only 11 of their 34 shots (32.4%) of their 3-pointers in Game Six. Dallas goes back on the road where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Additionally, the Mavericks have played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 22 of their last 27 games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, Dallas has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. And in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog, the Mavericks have played 5 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total. Dallas has also played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 10* NBA Dallas-LA Clippers ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (573) and the Los Angeles Clippers (574). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-06-21 |
Mavs v. Clippers -6 |
Top |
111-126 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 3:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (574) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (573) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (50-28) forced a climactic seventh game in this series after their 104-97 win on the road against the Mavericks as a 3-point favorite. Dallas (45-33) has lost three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: It may look easy to take the Mavericks getting 6 or so points in this seventh game — but Los Angeles has been the dominant team in this series since making some adjustments after Game Two. Dallas was on fire with their 3-point shooting by making 47.2% and 52.9% of their 3-pointers in the first two games in this series. But the Regression Gods made their appearance and the Mavs have not been the same from behind the arc. They made only 11 of their 34 shots (32.4%) of their 3-pointers in Game Six. Ty Lue made the decision to not play Ivica Zubic when Luka Doncic is on the court since he was getting torched on the pick-and-roll. Going with a small lineup of Reggie Jackson and Nicolas Batum for Zubic and Patrick Beverley has been a game-changer for the Clippers. Beverley is not the same player on defense — and he has never been much of a scorer, so he is a liability if he has lost his defensive prowess. I’m not surprised that Los Angeles blew Game Five at home after picking themselves off the mat to win both games in Dallas. But facing elimination, Kawhi Leonard is finally defending Doncic — he held him to 2 of 6 shooting in the times he guarded him on Friday. I expect Leonard to take on this defensive assignment even more for this Game Seven. And how far away is Doncic from being 100% with the neck injury has been dealing with for most of this series? Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with one day of rest. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 22 home games when laying 6.5 to 12 points. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a loss at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games with one day of rest. And in the last 9 games after losing three of their last four games, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in all 5 games. For Dallas to win, Doncic will have to carry the team. Kristaps Porzingis is a big disappointment coming off a 7-point game on Friday. He has not reached double-digits three times in this series.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks had their chance to win this series on Friday. The challenge is even harder now, even though they have won three times already in the Staples Center. They will play hard — but expect the Clippers to eventually pull away. Dallas remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 playoff games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. 25* NBA 1st Round ABC-TV Playoff Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Clippers (574) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-06-21 |
Hawks +3 v. 76ers |
|
128-124 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (571) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (572) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (45-32) has won eight of their last nine games after their 103-89 victory at New York as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday to close out that series in five games. Philadelphia (53-24) has won six of their last seven games with their 129-112 victory against Washington as a 6-point favorite on Wednesday to end that series in five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta has been a much better team since Nate McMillan took over as their head coach midseason. The team is playing much better on the defensive end of the court. The Hawks have held their last eight opponents to no better than 44.2% shooting — and six of their last seven opponents have not topped 42% shooting. Atlanta has a rising superstar in Trae Young who can carry the team. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Atlanta has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games as an underdog of up to six points. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, Atlanta has covered the point spread 6 times. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Joel Embiid is going to attempt to play this afternoon despite the tear in the meniscus in his right knee. I am skeptical how effective he can be — and the point spread has moved a few points in Atlanta’s favor since the announcement. The Sixers remain a team that is 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games when playing a team with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta will be looking to avenge a 126-104 loss to the 76ers in Philly on April 30th. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games when avenging a loss on the road. 10* NBA Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Atlanta Hawks (571) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-06-21 |
Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 220.5 |
Top |
128-124 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (571) and the Philadelphia 76ers (572) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (45-32) has won eight of their last nine games after their 103-89 victory at New York as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday to close out that series in five games. Philadelphia (53-24) has won six of their last seven games with their 129-112 victory against Washington as a 6-point favorite on Wednesday to end that series in five games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And they have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. Atlanta made a dramatic improvement once Nate McMillan became their head coach midseason — and the team is playing much better on the defensive end of the court. The Hawks have held their last eight opponents to no better than 44.2% shooting — and six of their last seven opponents have not topped 42% shooting. The rest should help this team as they have played 6 straight Unders when playing their second game in seven days. But the offensive attack for this team wanes when they are on the road. Atlanta averaged 119.3 points per 100 possessions at home during the regular season — but that mark dropped to them scoring only 104.0 points per 100 possessions when on the road. The Hawks have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Atlanta has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight playoff games Under the Total as a dog. Philadelphia has played 35 of their last 51 home games Under the Total after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored. The team will likely be without Joel Embiid who is nursing a meniscus tear in his right knee. Embiid plays a critical role for the team on both ends of the court — but his impact is probably more important on offense. Going into Game Five of the Washington series, the 76ers were scoring +11.2 more points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the court this season. In that series (after Game Four), the Sixers have scored +38 more points per 100 possessions with Embiid playing. They were scoring only 104.9 points per 100 possessions without Embiid in this series (after Game Four) with a 49.4% effective field goal percentage. Philly torched the defensively challenged Wizards by making 51.2% of their shots on Wednesday — but Washington loves to play at a fast pace which helped them get open looks. Atlanta slows the pace down — so getting good looks will be more of a challenge. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Semifinals — and they have played 3 of their last 4 opening games to a new series Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Embiid is going to start this afternoon. Frankly, I am not sure how effective he will be on the offensive end of the court — but his presence protecting the rim will probably help our Under play, overall. These teams last played on April 30th when the Sixers crashed Atlanta at home by a 126-104 score. Atlanta has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA 2nd Round ABC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (571) and the Philadelphia 76ers (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-05-21 |
Bucks v. Nets UNDER 240 |
|
107-115 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Brooklyn Nets (562) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (50-26) has won seven of their last eight games after sweeping against the Heat in four games after their 120-103 victory on the road in Miami as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. Brooklyn (52-25) returns to the court for the first time since Tuesday after they completed their four-game sweep of Boston in Round One of the playoffs with their 123-109 victory as a 12.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks’ closing game with the Heat finished Over the 223 point total — and they have played 28 of their last 44 games Under the Total on the road after a game that finished Over the Total. They hit the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. Milwaukee has also played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. And in their last six opening games to a new playoff series, the Bucks have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Brooklyn has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. They host this game where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams may be a bit rusty in this opening game after a long layoff. Milwaukee has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. Brooklyn has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing with at least three days of rest. With the Total installed in the high 230s, it does not take too many missed shots and slowed possessions for this opening game to finish below the number. 10* NBA Saturday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Brooklyn Nets (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-05-21 |
Bucks v. Nets -3.5 |
Top |
107-115 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (562) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (561) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (52-25) returns to the court for the first time since Tuesday after they completed their four-game sweep of Boston in Round One of the playoffs with their 123-109 victory as a 12.5-point favorite. Milwaukee (50-26) has won seven of their last eight games after sweeping against the Heat in four games after their 120-103 victory on the road in Miami as a 4-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS MINUS THE POINTS: Brooklyn should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Nets have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. After Kevin Durant missed 38 regular-season games, James Harden missed 14 games in the regular season, and Kyrie Irving missed 18 regular games, the Brooklyn Big Three added five games to the 13 total overall this season that they have played — and the results were impressive. They scored 128 points per 100 possessions against the Celtics in the opening round of the playoffs — and I don’t care if the Boston defense was not elite, that is an incredible number against a playoff team. The Nets host Game One where they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games when favored in the Barclays Center. Brooklyn has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Nets have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 47 games with the Over/Under set at 230 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Milwaukee may suffer an emotional letdown after exorcising the demons of getting upset by the Miami Heat in the playoffs last postseason. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after winning three games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Milwaukee may suffer from rest with the week off — they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with at least three days of rest. They go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Bucks are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games in the playoffs as an underdog. Milwaukee lost an important piece last round with the season-ending foot injury to Donte DiVincenzo.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee won the last meeting between these two teams with their 124-118 victory at home on May 4th. The Bucks have yet to play the Nets with Durant, Harden, and Irving all on the court — and the Nets have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 68 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA 2nd Round Saturday TNT Game of the Year with the Brooklyn Nets (562) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-04-21 |
Clippers -2.5 v. Mavs |
|
104-97 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (557) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (558) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-28) looks to stave off elimination after losing Game Five of this series with their 105-100 upset loss at home to the Mavericks as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Dallas (45-32) returns home with the opportunity to close out this series with their 3-2 lead.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles dominated the Mavericks in Dallas in Game Three and Four of this series with two double-digit victories by an average winning margin of +17.5 PPG. Not surprisingly to us, they returned home to the Staples Center complacent — and they got burned by Luka Doncic who was able to carry his team after he had an extra day to rest his sore neck. But head coach Tyron Lue probably made the key move in this series by benching Ivica Zubic who was getting burned on the pick-and-roll unable to defend Doncic. Instead, Lue has put Reggie Jackson and Nicolas Batum in the starting lineup for Zubic and Patrick Beverley (who has not played well since returning from the injury that kept him out most of the regular season). The Clippers are back to facing a four-alarm emergency — so they should play better tonight. They made only 41.2% of their shots on Wednesday which was the lowest shooting percentage in their last 14 games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 34 of their last 54 games after a straight-up loss. The Clippers have lost and failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after losing five of their last seven games — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games after failing to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games after failing to cover the point spread in five of their last seven games. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with one day of rest. Los Angeles goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Dallas benefited from a resurgent performance from Luka Doncic who rebounded from his subpar 9 of 24 shooting mark in Game Four with a 42 point night on Wednesday which included him nailing 6 of 12 shots from behind the arc. Doncic also assisted on 14 baskets in Game Four — he scored or assisted on all but six of the Mavericks’ field goals. He clearly benefited from the extra second day of rest. But this game is being played with one day of rest — will Doncic be able to recover from his injured neck that seemed to hold him back in Game Four? As it is, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played with just one day of rest. The Mavericks have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a win by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after a win on the road. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Dallas remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 playoff games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have covered the point spread in 43 of their last 66 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss where they were favored by at least seven points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss on their home court where they were laying at least seven points. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Clippers (557) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (558). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-04-21 |
Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
104-97 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (557) and the Dallas Mavericks (558) in Game Six of the Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-28) looks to stave off elimination after losing Game Five of this series with their 105-100 upset loss at home to the Mavericks as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Dallas (45-32) returns home with the opportunity to close out this series with their 3-2 lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers have palled 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 11-4-1 in their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles has also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. And in their last 7 games played with one day of rest, the Under is 5-1-1. Los Angeles hits the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. Furthermore, the Clippers have played 18 of their last 26 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, the Under is 10-4-1 in Los Angeles’ last 15 games as a favorite — and the Under is 9-2-2 in their last 13 games when favored in the playoffs. Dallas benefited from a resurgent performance from Luka Doncic who rebounded from his subpar 9 of 24 shooting mark in Game Four with a 42 point night on Wednesday which included him nailing 6 of 12 shots from behind the arc. Doncic also assisted on 14 baskets in Game Four — he scored or assisted on all but six of the Mavericks’ field goals. He clearly benefited from the extra second day of rest. But this game is being played with one day of rest — will Doncic be able to recover from his injured neck that seemed to hold him back in Game Four? This is Dallas’ fourth game in the last ten days — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing just their fourth game in ten days. The Mavericks held the Clippers to 41.2% shooting on Wednesday. Head coach Rick Carlisle had this team playing better on the defensive end of the court to close out the regular season. While the Mavs ranked 21st in the season in Defensive Efficiency, they were 13th in that metric over their last 15 games. They return home where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Dallas has played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams that played at the 26th and 28th slowest paces in the league in the regular season. That helps explain why they have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games in Dallas Under the Total. The Clippers have played 26 of their last 41 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (557) and the Dallas Mavericks (558) in Game Six of the Western Conference Quarterfinals series. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-03-21 |
Suns v. Lakers -2 |
|
113-100 |
Loss |
-103 |
5 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (544) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (543) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (544) tries to pick themselves off the mat from a 115-85 blowout loss on the road against the Suns as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Phoenix (54-23) took a 3-2 lead in the series with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Things started fine for Los Angeles as LeBron James exerted himself early to help the Lakers take a 10-5 lead in the opening four minutes of Game Five. But as often the case with James in non-elimination games, he then deferred to his “supporting cast” to see if he was going to get any help. The answer was a resounding “no” as the Suns went on a 16-0 run to take a 21-10 lead. The Lakers battled back to pull within five points at the end of the quarter. Phoenix then went on a 21-2 run to start the second quarter — and James put a cork in it to conserve his energy for Game Six. Three things will be different for this contest. First, James will give 100% since his team is on the brink of a long summer vacation. Second, his supporting cast will play better not only because they return to the Staples Center but because they cannot play any worse than they did on Tuesday. Some unkind rims did not help — but players like Kyle Kuzma need to step up and make an important basket (besides when his team is trailing by 20 points). We got clobbered with our Lakers play on Tuesday, but sometimes we are victims of the outlier performances. I do not expect Anthony Davis to play tonight — if he does, even better. But as I wrote for Tuesday’s Report, the Lakers were 11-7 straight-up in their 18 games playing with James but without Davis — and they outscored their opponents by a very respectable +7.1 points per 100 possessions playing with James but without Davis on the court. Tuesday was an outlier. The Lakers made only 34.5% of their shots in that game in what was the worst shooting effort for them all season. The Lakers’ defense should be better tonight as well after they led the NBA by holding their opponents to just 106.8 points per 100 possessions (with many of those games without Davis. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after losing two in a row to Pacific Division rivals. Additionally, the Lakers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not scoring more than 90 points in their last game. And in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of these games. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a double-digit win. The Suns have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a win at home by 20 or more points. By holding the Lakers to just 34.5% shooting, Phoenix played their best defensive game of the season. Devin Booker is scoring 31.7 PPG on his home court on 50% shooting in this series — but his production drops to 18.0 PPG on 33% shooting in the two previous games in the Staples Center in this series. The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Lakers (544) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (543). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-03-21 |
Nuggets v. Blazers -4.5 |
Top |
126-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (546) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (545) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Portland (44-33) looks to rebound from their epic 147-140 double-overtime loss at Denver as a 2-point underdog on Tuesday. Denver took a 3-2 lead in the series with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: Damian Lillard was sublime in Game Four with 55 points on 17 of 24 shooting which including tying a playoff record with 12 made 3s — and he bailed out Portland with buzzer-beating shots in regulation and the first overtime to keep his team alive. But his teammates did not offer much help. The Blazers’ supporting cast to Lillard made only 1 of their 19 shot attempts in overtime. Returning home should help where the role players are more comfortable. Portland has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on the road. Additionally, the Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Now after winning Game One of this series, Portland has lost and failed to cover the point spread in three of the last four games in this series. But the Blazers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after losing three of four — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after only covering the point spread once in their last four games. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored. Michael Porter, Jr. had his best game in the playoffs on Tuesday by nailing 10 of his 13 shots en route to 26 points — but he sleepwalked his way through in Game Four and has yet to demonstrate the consistency to be a reliable Number Two to Nikola Jokic. Head coach Michael Malone has gotten surprisingly great play from the quartet of guards he is deploying in lieu of the injuries to Jamal Murray, Will Barton, and P.J. Dozier. Austin Rivers, Facundo Campazzo, Markus Howard, and Monte Morris have combined to average 41.2 PPG in this series while averaging 7.6 made 3-pointers per game on 42.7% shooting from behind the arc. With the three injured guards higher up on the depth chart still out tonight, can this group continue to put up these numbers? Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight playoff games when they were leading in the series — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 opportunities to close out a series.
FINAL TAKE: Portland has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 opportunities to exact same-season revenge. 25* NBA 1st Round Northwest Division Playoff Game of the Year with the Portland Trail Blazers (546) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (545). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-02-21 |
Mavs +7.5 v. Clippers |
|
105-100 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (533) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (534) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (44-32) has lost the last two games of this series after their 106-81 loss at home to the Clippers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (49-27) has evened this series at 2-2 after losing the first two games at home at the Staples Center.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: The big question in this game concerns how effective Luka Doncic will be with the cervical strain that seems to be impacting his shooting. He made only 9 of his 24 shots on Game Four. Even assuming Doncic is not much better, I still expect his teammates to play better after losing both games in Dallas by double-digits. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after suffering two straight double-digit losses at home. Dallas made only 34.8% of their shots on Sunday in what was the worst shooting effort for them all season. They also made only 5 of their shots from bending the arc after shooting over 50% of their 3-pointers in both Game Two and Game Three. The Mavericks go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Additionally, Dallas has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. And in their last 22 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points, the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 16 of these games. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Los Angeles may be due for a letdown after picking themselves off the mat from their disastrous start to this series. The Clippers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with two days of rest. And while Los Angeles has scored at least 10 points three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games after scoring at least 105 points in three straight games. The Clippers return to the Staples Center where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Furthermore, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 playoff games when the series was tied.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 opportunities this season when avenging two straight double-digit losses to their opponent. The Mavericks have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Clippers in Los Angeles. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Dallas Mavericks (533) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-02-21 |
Hawks v. Knicks -1 |
|
103-89 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
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At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (532) minus the point(s) versus the Atlanta Hawks (531) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (42-34) has lost the last two games in this series with their 113-96 loss at Atlanta as a 5-point underdog on Sunday. Atlanta (44-32) has won seven of their last eight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINT(S): New York should respond with a strong effort tonight. The Knicks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss. New York is also 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 home games when favored. This team will continue to play hard for head coach Tom Thibodeau — and they should be energized by the raucous crowd at Madison Square Garden tonight. They are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 32 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Atlanta may not benefit from the extra day from the game on Sunday — they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games the playing with two days of rest. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponents. 10* NBA Atlanta-New York TNT Special with the New York Knicks (532) minus the point(s) versus the Atlanta Hawks (531). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-02-21 |
Wizards v. 76ers UNDER 229.5 |
Top |
112-129 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
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At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (537) and the Philadelphia 76ers (538) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Washington (36-42) kept their season alive on Monday with their 122-114 upset victory against the 76ers as an 8.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (52-24) had been on a five-game winning streak.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sixers will be without Joel Embiid for at least this game after he injured his back early in the game on Monday. He only played 11:24 minutes of the game. His absence played a large role in Philly shooting only 41.7% from the field. Embiid plays a critical role for the team on both ends of the court — but his impact is probably more important on offense. The 76ers score +11.2 more points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the court this season. In this series, the Sixers have scored +38 more points per 100 possessions with Embiid playing. They are scoring only 104.9 points per 100 possessions without Embiid in this series with a 49.4% effective field goal percentage. As it is, Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The 76ers have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss. Philadelphia has also played 35 of their last 50 home games Under the Total after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored. Washington got 12 first quarter points from Davis Bertans to keep them competitive early in the game. But Bertans later suffered a calf strain that will likely keep him out the rest of this series. He is critical to the Wizards’ offense since he is the team’s best 3-pointer shooter — he made 39.4% of his shots from behind the arc in the regular season. His long distance shooting helps to open up space for Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook to slash to the basket. Washington only made 35.6% of their 3-pointers in the regular season -- ranking 24th in the league — even with a healthy Bertans. Washington has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset win as an underdog getting at least 7 points. The Wizards have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Washington has also played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: In the 10 games in late March that the Sixers played without Embiid, 7 of these games finished Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when favored. 25* NBA 1st Round Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (537) and the Philadelphia 76ers (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-01-21 |
Lakers +5.5 v. Suns |
Top |
85-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
23 h 50 m |
Show
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At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (525) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (526) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (45-32) looks to rebound from their 100-92 upset loss at home to the Suns as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. Phoenix (53-23) has won five of their last seven games after evening this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: The tenor of Game Four changed with Anthony Davis suffering a groin injury that limited him to playing only 19:24 minutes. He is doubtful to play on Tuesday with what has been described as a painful injury. Even without Davis, Los Angeles will be tough to beat. LeBron James remains the straw that stirs the drink in the NBA. His “supporting cast” should step up for this game. And head coach Frank Vogel has two days to make adjustments specific for the Suns. The Lakers played 18 games this season with James on the court playing without Davis. Los Angeles won 11 of these contests. Los Angeles outscored their opponents by +7.1 points per 100 possessions with James on the court without Davis. This Lakers’ roster is improved from the one that won the NBA title in the bubble last year. Dennis Schroeder and Montrezl Harrell are nice new additions that can provide scoring. Wes Matthews is a veteran who can provide reliable minutes. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is listed as questionable with a knee injury — but he says he is feeling better. His return will help. Expect Alex Caruso and Marc Gasol to play more minutes in place of Davis. Caruso is a valuable swiss army knife energy player. And while Gasol’s minutes have declined as the season went on in his first in a Lakers’ uniform, that is because he is not a good fit with Davis on the court. He is a valuable piece without Davis being available. As it is, Los Angeles should shoot better tonight after making only 39.5% of their shots on Sunday, the lowest shooting effort in their last 11 games. They made just 13 of their 40 shots from behind the arc — they should improve on that 32% shooting mark. The Lakers make 36.3% of their 3-pointers on the road. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss to a divisional rival. The Lakers have also covered 4 of their 6 games played this season on the road with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 32 playoff games when tied in the series. Phoenix played their best defensive game in their last 22 games by holding the Lakers to 39.5% shooting. But the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after an upset victory on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games when playing at home after an upset win on the road as an underdog. Additionally, Phoenix is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread win. Even with Davis playing less than 20 minutes on Sunday, Phoenix only scored 100 points. The Suns are only hitting 33% of their shots from behind the arc in this series. The Lakers will continue to play stout defense. Los Angeles led the NBA in the regular season by holding their opponents to just 106.8 points per 100 possessions — and this includes Davis missing a big chunk of the season. Furthermore, the Suns are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: This is the game where the lack of playoff experience for this Suns team (outside Chris Paul and Jae Crowder) will likely play a role. Phoenix may win this game — but In LeBron, I Trust to make this contest a coin flip at the end (at least). James missed six of his seven shots from behind the arc on Sunday — he will play better. The Lakers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games when avenging a loss at home. 25* NBA 1st Round Pacific Division Underdog of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (525) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-31-21 |
Jazz v. Grizzlies +5.5 |
|
120-113 |
Loss |
-107 |
5 h 2 m |
Show
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At 9:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (514) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (513) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (41-36) has lost the last two games in this series after their 121-111 loss at home to the Jazz as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. Utah (54-21) took a 2-1 win in this series with the victory after taking Game Two by a 141-129 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: While bettors are jumping on the Utah bandwagon tonight, the national media seems to have missed the narrative that I took from Game Three. Memphis entered the fourth quarter trailing by a 96-85 margin before going on a 24-9 run to give them a 109-107 lead with just 4:20 left in the game. But the Jazz then outscored the Grizzlies by a 14-2 margin the rest of the way to take the win while (unfortunately) covering the point spread late in the game. I chalk that game up to it being a learning experience for Memphis — something that most good young teams have to grow through becoming reliable playoff veterans. I suspect the bitter experience will harden them for this game — an opportunity to still even this series at 2-2. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by 10 or more points on their home court. Memphis has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a loss at home. Additionally, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing two in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Memphis has allowed at least 109 points in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 105 points in four straight games. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games as an underdog getting up to six points. Utah is a great defensive team — but they are having difficulty stopping Ja Morant who is averaging 33.7 PPG in the last three games. Morant is one of the brightest young stars in the league — I expect him to continue scoring. He is drawing so much attention that it is opening up space for the underrated Dillon Brooks to average 27.0 PPG in this series. The Grizzlies are a dangerous underdog because they do several things to create more scoring chances. They were second in the NBA in the regular season by averaging 9.1 steals per game. They were sixth in the league in offensive rebounding. And they also take advantage of their scoring chances as they were sixth during the regular season in turnover rate on offense. Memphis has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog. The three games in this series have all finished Over the Total with all three seeing at least 221 combined points scored. But the Jazz have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least three straight Overs — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after playing three straight games where at least 210 combined points were scored. Utah is vulnerable against defensive pressure as they had the eleventh highest turnover rate in the league. And because they attempt 42.3% of their shots from behind the arc, they are vulnerable to the adage of “live by the 3, die by the 3.” These are characteristics that make them unreliable favorites. The Jazz have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games when favored — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 25* NBA TNT Game of the Month with the Memphis Grizzlies (514) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-31-21 |
76ers v. Wizards UNDER 231 |
Top |
114-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 16 m |
Show
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At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Washington Wizards (512) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (52-23) has won five games in a row with their 132-103 road victory against the Wizards as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Washington (35-42) has lost eight of their last nine games as they face elimination trailing 0-3 in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers made 58.6% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting percentage for them in their last 68 games. While I appreciate that the Wizards have no answer for Joel Embiid, they are not likely to shoot that well from the field again tonight. Philadelphia is averaging 125.7 PPG on 54.5% shooting from the field in this series. The last team to do that was the 1985 Los Angeles Lakers with Magic Johnson and Kareem-Abdul Jabbar. It is simply very difficult to continue shooting and scoring at such a prolific rate — even against mediocre defensive teams. And if the Sixers are winning this game easily, head coach Doc Rivers is likely to rest his starters to ensure nothing happens injury-wise before their showdown with Milwaukee in the next round of the playoffs. As it is, Philadelphia has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road. The 76ers have also played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 15 road games as a favorite, Philadelphia has played 12 of these games Under the Total. Additionally, the 76ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series — and they have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series. Washington should play better on defense — the Sixers’ 58.6% field goal percentage was their highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 69 games. The Wizards were playing better on defense to close out the regular season. Once they got back to full health, Washington went on a 17 of 22 winning streak where they ranked eighth in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss at home by 10 or more points. The Wizards have also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. And in their last 21 games after just a point spread loss, Washington has played 15 of these games Under the Total. The Wizards only made 39.6% of their shots on Saturday — and they have a fundamental problem in this series. Washington lives close to the basket on offense — they led the NBA in the regular season with the most shot attempts and the highest field goal percentage from three feet to ten feet from the basket. But with Joel Embiid patrolling the paint, the Sixers have a rim protector that is stifling the Wizards’ attack. Washington stays at home for Game Four where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 220s. Additionally, the Wizards have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Russell Westbrook and Ish Smith are both questionable for this game with injuries. Westbrook is dealing with a right ankle sprain. If they don’t play, the offensive attack for the Wizards will be shorthanded. Even if they play, their injuries may limit their shooting effectiveness. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when hosting the 76ers. 25* NBA 1st Round Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Washington Wizards (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-30-21 |
Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 221 |
Top |
106-81 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (48-27) won the first game in this series on Friday with their 118-108 victory at Dallas as a 2.5-point road favorite as a 2.5-point favorite. Dallas (44-31) holds a 2-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers have improved their shooting from the field in each game in this series after making 57.1% of their shots in Game Three. That was the highest field goal percentage for this Los Angeles team in their last 20 games. The Clippers made only 44.9% of their shots in Game One. Even with head coach Tyron Lue substituting defense for offense with his benching of Patrick Beverley for Reggie Jackson, LA is due for some regression on offense. The Clippers have been scoring at an unsustainable 127.5 points per 100 possession rate in this series. The Under is 5-1-1 in Los Angeles’ last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Clippers have also seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when playing with one day of rest. Los Angeles stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and the Under is 7-2-2 in their last 9 playoff games when favored. Dallas made 20 of their 39 shots from behind the arc in the losing effort on Friday. They are making 50.5% of their shots from distance in this series which is simply unsustainable — especially if they continue to launch 36.3 shots from 3-point land per game as they have in the first three games in this series. The Mavericks made only 36.2% of their 3-pointers in the regular season — and the Clippers were sixth-best in the NBA by holding their opponents to 35.5% shooting from behind the arc. Luka Doncic is dealing with a neck issue as well — so while he will likely play, his super-human shooting skills may not be as spectacular in this Game Four. The Dallas is defense ranked only 21st for the season in Defensive Efficiency — but they improved to 13th over the last 15 games of the regular season. Head coach Rick Carlisle can get his group to play better on that end of the court. The Mavericks have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on their home court. They have also played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Mavericks have played 12 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on their home court. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (507) and the Dallas Mavericks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-30-21 |
Knicks v. Hawks UNDER 209.5 |
Top |
96-113 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (501) and the Atlanta Hawks (502) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (43-32) took a 2-1 lead in this series on Friday with their 105-94 victory against the Knicks as a 4.5-point favorite. New York (42-33) trails in the series by a 2-1 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knicks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. New York has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Julius Randle is struggling to score in this series. After carrying the Knicks on offense all season, he may be tired. After scoring only 14 points on 2 of 15 shooting on Friday, he is shooting only 30% from the field this season. Atlanta getting DeAndre Hunter back for the postseason after he was injured for most of the season has also played a big role as Hunter is an outstanding defender. The Hawks improved by 7.4 points per 100 possessions on defense with Hunter on the court during the regular season. New York is making only 39.9% from the field in this series. Head coach Tom Thibodeau finally made the inevitable move to put Derrick Rose in the starting lineup for Elfrid Payton who has been a +/- nightmare. Thibs also inserted Taj Gibson in for Nerlens Noel in the starting five. The downside of these moves is that the scoring punch from the Knicks’ second unit is now gone. The formula for New York to win this game is from defense — the DNA of Thibodeau’s coaching. They allowed Atlanta to make 51.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 13 games. The Knicks will play better on defense -- but, unfortunately for them, their 36.2% shooting percentage in Game Three is probably close to who they are in the intensity of the playoffs. They just do not have enough reliable scoring options. Yet, they can return to playing like the team that ranked fourth in the regular season by holding their opponents to scoring only 107.8 points per 100 possessions. They stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. New York has also played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points. And in their last 17 games with the Total set at 200 or higher, the Knicks have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Atlanta’s 51.9% shooting on Friday was fueled by them margin 16 of their 27 shots from behind the arc. They are not likely to make 59% of their 3-pointers again tonight. The Hawks have played 5 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total on their home court after a win. Atlanta has also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Hawks’ defense has improved since Nate McMillan took over in March. They have held their opponents to just 35.2% shooting from behind the arc under McMillan. They stay at home where they have played 4 straight Unders — and they have played 17 of their last 23 home games Under the Total when favored. They also have played 19 of their last 25 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: New York has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Additionally, the Knicks have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. 25* NBA 1st Round Sunday ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (501) and the Atlanta Hawks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-21 |
Jazz v. Grizzlies +5.5 |
|
121-111 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 9:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (578) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (577) in Game Three of this Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (41-35) looks to bounce back from their 141-129 loss at Utah as a 10-point underdog on Wednesday. Utah (53-21) has won three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis had been on a three-game winning streak during a treacherous stretch that included both Play-In Tournament games and Game One of this series. A letdown was coming (and we were on the Jazz). The Grizzlies allowed the Jazz to make 54.4% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 40 games. Memphis had been playing better on the defensive end of the court to close out the regular season — they ranked twelfth in the league in Defensive Efficiency. Getting Jalen Jackson and his interior defense back on the court after he missed most of the season with an injury. Jackson averaged 1.6 blocks per game and 1.1 steals per game to close out the regular season. Memphis should tighten up on defense. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a double-digit loss. The Grizzlies are a dangerous team with an underrated head coach in Taylor Jenkins and a rising superstar in Ja Morant. Morant is making 55.3% of his shots in this series after scoring 47 points in a losing effort on Wednesday. Dillon Brooks is underappreciated as well — the former Oregon star is averaging 27 PPG on 57.5% shooting in this series despite playing limited minutes because of foul trouble on Wednesday. These are some of the reasons why the Grizzlies are often reliable underdogs. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games as a dog. Memphis has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Utah rebounded from their Game One loss by nailing 19 of their 39 shots from behind the arc for a 48.7% percentage. The Jazz’s 54.4% shooting percentage was their best mark in their last eight games. But Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last contest. The Jazz have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs when favored — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 26 games when playing with revenge for a same-season loss. 10* NBA Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Memphis Grizzlies (578) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (577). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-21 |
Nuggets v. Blazers -4 |
Top |
95-115 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (574) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (573) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Portland (43-32) has lost the last two games in this series with their 120-115 upset loss to the Nuggets as a 4-point underdog on Thursday. Denver (49-26) has won five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: Portland only shot 45.0% from the field on Thursday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last five games. They made only 14 of their 45 shots from behind the arc — and they made four straight 3s late in the game (before missing a 66-foot attempt at the buzzer) to make the score appear closer than it was for most of the game which would have changed the dynamic of the contest. After dealing with a host of injuries impacting Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum along with many of the supporting cast, when this team got healthy again, they nailed 43.2% of their 3-pointers from April 27th to the end of the regular season. For the year, the Blazers ranked sixth in the NBA by making 38.5% of their 3-pointers. They should shoot better tonight. Portland has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Trail Blazers have lost and failed to cover the point spread in the last two games. But not only has Portland covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after losing two in a row — and they have covered the point spread 9 of their last 13 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Head coach Terry Stotts made an adjustment at half-time to go small with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson at center rather than Enes Kanter when starter Jusuf Nurkic needs a breather. The Blazers were outscored by a 16-1 margin when Kanter subbed for Nurkic in the first half. Kanter is simply too much of a liability on defense — and that is before he tries to defend the league MVP Nikola Jokic. Portland was +10 when Kanter was off the court in Game Three — and they even outscored the Nuggets when Stotts went small in the second half without Nurkic on the court. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored. Portland has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 playoff games when trailing in the series. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after an upset win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two in a row against a Northwest Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Nuggets will once again be playing without three of their top five guards on the depth chart with Jamal Murray out the season and Will Barton and P.J. Dozier still out with injuries. Denver got spectacular performances from Austin Rivers and Facundo Campazzo. Rivers nailed five 3-pointers including three with under two minutes to go which were all daggers. Campazzo has 11 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists. But Campazzo is a 30-year old rookie and Rivers was out of the league after being dropped by Oklahoma City (!) two months ago. Can these two guards replicate their performances? I doubt it. As it is, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when leading in the playoffs.
FINAL TAKE: Portland has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when avenging a loss at home to their opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. 25* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month with the Portland Trail Blazers (574) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-21 |
Bucks v. Heat +5 |
|
120-103 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 1:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (572) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (571) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (40-35) looks to stave off elimination this afternoon after falling to an 0-3 deficit in this series with their 113-84 loss as a 1.5-point favorite on Thursday. Milwaukee (49-26) has won six of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: What is happening to Miami? Sure, the Bucks were going to be ready for bear in this series to avenge last season’s upset loss in the playoffs. And Milwaukee is better than their detractors suggest (and, believe it or not, Mike Budenholzer is a better basketball coach than NBA Twitter). The Bucks improved their shooting depth in the offseason. Miami faces a starker dilemma this time around regarding how to defend Brook Lopez: use a smaller defender to accompany Bam Adebayo to counter Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo, or go big with Dewayne Dedmon alongside Adebayo but hurt the desired spacing on offense. Budenholzer has had Antetokounmpo defend Jimmy Butler which has limited his effectiveness. But Erik Spoelstra has answers to all this. Adebayo needs to do more being defended by Lopez. Even simpler than that: the Heat simply needs to make some shots. They upset Milwaukee last year because Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro led the way with an avalanche of 3s. Make outside shots — and everything changes. It is that simple. Miami made only 37.6% of their shots on Thursday including only 9 of 32 (28%) from behind the arc. They made 8 of 28 (29%) shots from downtown in Game Two. Their 38% field goal percentage for the series is the lowest mark of all 16 teams in the playoffs. In the first game of this series, the Heat nailed 20 of their 50 shots from behind the arc. They lost that game on the last possession in overtime. Spoelstra is a great coach — and he is going to make an adjustment or two that NBA Twitter (and me!) will not think of for this game. But an investment in Miami this afternoon is an investment that the Heat will simply make more baskets. They make 46.8% of their shots at home with a 36.9% 3-point shooting percentage. If they approach those numbers, they should be in a close game. And I have faith in the Heat culture to play hard in this game if simply for pride's sake after two straight embarrassing losses. Miami is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They have allowed at least 105 points in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after allowing at least 105 points in five straight games. They are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games on their home court. And in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog, the Heat have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. I suspect Milwaukee will come out flat. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning three in a row. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 37 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when avenging two straight losses by double-digits. Milwaukee has won the last four meetings between these two teams going back to the regular season — but the Heat have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge for at least four straight losses. 10* NBA Milwaukee-Miami TNT Special with the Miami Heat (572) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (571). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-28-21 |
Clippers -2 v. Mavs |
|
118-108 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 9:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (565) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (566) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (47-27) lost their fourth game in a row on Tuesday with their 127-121 upset loss to the Mavericks as a 7-point favorite in the second game of this series. Dallas (44-30) has pulled off upsets in the first two games of this series while winning 13 of their last 17 games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles has to play better in slowing down Luka Doncic and this Mavericks offense that has scored at a 128.3 points per 100 possessions rate. Patrick Beverley will likely play more tonight than the 20.5 minutes per game he has averaged — head coach Tyron Lue needs his defensive talent on the court. The Clippers allowed Dallas to make 58.5% of their shots in Game Two which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 34 games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of the shots. And while the Clippers have allowed their last four opponents to make at least 50% of their shots, the Clippers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after allowing their last three opponents to shoot at least 47% from the field. In theory, Los Angeles is supposed to be a better defensive team — even with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George missing 20 and 18 games respectively, they finished 8th in the league in the NBA — and they were sixth in the league by holding their opponents to 35.5% shooting from behind the arc. The Clippers have lost five of their last seven games — but they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games with the total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Dallas is not likely to continue to make 50% of their 3-pointers as they have so far in this series. The Mavericks’ 58.5% field goal percentage on Wednesday was their best shooting mark of the season. An emotional letdown is likely. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games after a win on the road. And while Dallas has seen at least 216 combined points scored in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after playing three straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. This remains a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games when playing the same-season revenge — and they have covered the points spread in 42 of their last 65 games when avenging upset loss where they were favored by at least 7 points. 10* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Clippers (565) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-28-21 |
Nets v. Celtics OVER 227 |
Top |
119-125 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (563) and the Boston Celtics (564) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (50-24) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 130-108 victory at home against Boston as an 8.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Boston (37-38) has lost seven of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Big Three of Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving have been the offensive juggernaut many observers expected when they joined together this season. The Nets are scoring at an incredible 140 points per 100 possession rate so far in this series against an overmatched Celtics’ defense. They made 52.3% of their shots on Tuesday while nailing 17 of their 38 shots (45%) from behind the arc. And while the Brooklyn defense has held Boston to just 106.5 points per 100 possessions, I expect their defensive efforts to wane a bit as they did in the regular season now that this series seems to be well in hand. The Nets have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win against an Atlantic Division rival. Brooklyn raced out to a 71-47 halftime lead in the game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after leading by at least 15 points at halftime of their last game. The Nets have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning two in a row against divisional rivals. Brooklyn goes back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the number set in the 220s. They have also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Boston should show fight in this game — and that likely means a better effort on offense after making only 42.4% of their shots on Tuesday. Returning home should help where they are making 47.2% of their shots. I am skeptical that the Celtics can do much to stop this Nets’ offense — they really missed Jaylen Brown who was one of the team’s best on-the-ball defenders. Boston ranked a middling 13th in the league in Defensive Rating during the regular season but they fall to 23rd in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games without Brown. The Celtics have played 36 of their last 52 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 11 of their last 13 home games Over the Total after a loss on the road by double-digits. They also have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a loss to a division opponent. This team under head coach Brad Stevens rarely tightens things up on defense after a bad effort. The Over is 20-8-1 in Boston’s last 29 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. Now they return home where they have played 6 straight Overs — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after playing their last two games on the road. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Kemba Walker is questionable with a knee bone bruise. The Boston offensive attack should still be fine with Payton Pritchard playing more minutes — he averages 13.5 PPG per a 24.6 minutes rate.
FINAL TAKE: The Celtics have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog under Stevens. 25* NBA 1st Round ABC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (563) and the Boston Celtics (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-21 |
Nuggets v. Blazers -3.5 |
|
120-115 |
Loss |
-104 |
5 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (556) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (555) and the Portland Trail Blazers (556) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Portland (43-31) looks to rebound from their 128-109 loss at Denver as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Denver (48-26) evened this series at 1-1 while snapping a two-game losing streak.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: Portland allowed the Nuggets to make 52.9% of their shots in Game Two which was the worst defensive effort in their last 15 games. Head coach Terry Stotts did make some adjustments at halftime which helped his team hold Denver to just 42.2% shooting in the second half. The Trail Blazers should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Portland has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. They return home where they are a small favorite tonight — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored. The Trail Blazers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Denver enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 14 games by making 52.9% of their shots. But the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 42 games on the road after a double-digit victory. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. And in their last 6 games when playing with two days of rest, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record at home. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 51 games with the Total set at 220 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Portland has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 29 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Portland Trail Blazers (556) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (555) and the Portland Trail Blazers (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-21 |
Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 227 |
Top |
120-115 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (555) and the Portland Trail Blazers (556) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (48-26) evened this series at 1-1 with their 128-109 victory as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Portland (43-31) has still won seven of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Trail Blazers do not have an answer on defense to Nikola Jokic — and the Nuggets were committed to exploiting this vulnerability on Monday. Jokic scored 38 points while making 15 of his 20 shots inside the arc. Head coach Michael Malone made an interesting adjustment for Game Two by having his two guards stand in the corner to create a de-facto three-on-three game which opened up space for Jokic to operate in the paint. This spacing also helped Denver convert 12 of their 28 shots from behind the arc (42.9%). The Trail Blazers are at a significant size disadvantage in this series. Michael Porter is only making 25% of his 3-pointers in this series after leading the team with a 44.5% shooting mark from behind the arc during the regular season — so the scoring ceiling is higher for this team. The extra day of rest will help the Nuggets’ scoring attack — they have played 4 straight Overs when playing with two days of rest. Additionally, Denver has played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog. And in their last 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Portland has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. The Blazers are making 47.6% of their shots in this series along with 36.5% of their 3-pointers — and they can do more. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum have combined to score 63 and 55 points in this series. The Nuggets are missing Jamal Murray who provided the team’s best on-the-ball defender against opposing guards — and Will Barton is still out tonight with his injury which leaves them very thin when it comes to backcourt defensive options. Portland returns home where they have played 20 of their last 29 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Blazers have also played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total — and Portland has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when hosting the Nuggets. Denver can’t cover the Blazers’ backcourt — and Portland can’t cover the Nuggets’ frontcourt. This Game Three should be a wild one. 25* NBA Northwest Division Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (555) and the Portland Trail Blazers (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-21 |
Bucks v. Heat OVER 224 |
|
113-84 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (551) and the Miami Heat (552) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (48-26) has won five of their last six games after their 132-98 victory in Game Two of this series on Monday. Miami (40-34) trails in this series by a 2-0 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. Milwaukee is owning the glass in this series. After out-rebounding the Heat in Game One by +13 boards, they won the rebounding battle by a 61 to 36 margin on Monday. The Bucks have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after out-rebounding their last opponent by at least 15 boards — and they have played 40 of their last 60 games Over the Total after out-rebounding their last two opponents by at least 10 boards. Milwaukee will have fresh legs with the extra day off — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when favored. Furthermore, the Bucks have played 8 of their last 9 playoff games Over the Total when leading in the series — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when favored. Miami has played 23 of their last 31 games Over the Total when rebounding from a double-digit loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. Additionally, the Heat have played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. Head coach Erik Spoelstra will not be deterred from embracing a fast pace — his belief is that up-tempo plays into his team’s strength given the depth of his roster. Miami should shoot better than 8 of 29 (29%) from downtown as they did in Game Two. Now after playing their four games on the road, they return home for the first time since May 13th — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total after playing at least the last seven games on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when hosting a team with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has lost three straight games to the Bucks this season — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total when motivated by triple revenge. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (551) and the Miami Heat (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-21 |
Bucks v. Heat +2 |
Top |
113-84 |
Loss |
-113 |
4 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (552) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (551) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (40-34) has lost the first two games of this series with their 132-98 loss at Milwaukee as a 5-point favorite on Monday. Milwaukee (48-26) has won five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: On the heels of a 34-point loss in Game Two, many pundits are forgetting that this Miami team was in a possession-for-possession battle with the Bucks in the opening game of this series which they lost on a buzzer-beating shot — in overtime. There is a perception held by some that the Heat were flukes in making the NBA Finals last year. While perhaps the team was fortunate and in a better position to make a deep playoff run in the bubble last fall, they should be immediately discounted because of one bad first half. Milwaukee raced out to a 78-51 halftime lead on Monday — but Miami has then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after trailing by at least 20 points in their last game. Additionally, the Heat are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Miami has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 130 points in their last game. Now after playing their last four games on the road, the Heat return home for the first time since May 13th. Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing their last four games on the road — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home. The Heat have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games as an underdog. Milwaukee is likely due for a letdown after their easy win in Game Two. They nailed 22 of their 53 shots from downtown at a sizzling 42% rate. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win at home by at least 20 points. The Bucks have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 30 or more points. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding a halftime lead of 20 or more points. Milwaukee has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning their last two games at home. The Bucks hit the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. Furthermore, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Miami only made 8 of their 28 shots from 3-point land (29%) on Monday after they nailed 20 shots from downtown in Game One. The same Heat culture that helped them thrive in the bubble should lead to a very determined effort tonight. Erik Spoelstra is a great coach — and he has plenty of pieces on the roster from which to make adjustments. A playoff series starts when a team losing on their home court, goes the adage. Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a 20-point loss on the road. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Underdog of the Year with the Miami Heat (552) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-26-21 |
Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 |
|
129-141 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (546) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (545) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (52-21) looks to rebound from their 112-109 upset loss at home to the Grizzlies in Game One of this series. Memphis (41-34) has won three in a row and eight of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Utah started strong in Game One by taking a 10 point lead after the end of the first quarter before taking a 14-point lead. But the Jazz got sloppy with the basketball — and they can sometimes “die by the 3” given their reliance on 3-point shooting when things start to go bad. Utah missed 17 of 19 shots from distance before halftime while turning the ball over 10 times to open the door for the Grizzlies to get back into the game. Rudy Gobert also got into foul trouble — he only played 25 minutes in the game. Donovan Mitchell was supposed to return to action in this game but he did not play. And despite all this, the Jazz were almost in a position to steal this game at the end. The extra day of rest should help this team tonight as they are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games playing with two days of rest. Gobert should play more minutes tonight. Utah should also come closer to their 38.9% shooting from 3-point range after they made only 12 of their 47 shots from behind the arc on Sunday. The Jazz have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Getting Mitchell back tonight is expected — and it can only help. But Utah closed out the regular season winning ten of fifteen games without Mitchell — and they led the league with a +9.8 Net Efficiency Rating so head coach Quin Snyder’s team has demonstrated they can still play at a very high level without him. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. The Grizzlies play on the road for a third straight game in what has been a busy ten-day period that included two single-elimination Play-In Tournament games and an important game at Golden State to determine seeding on the last day of the regular season. This is the first time in their last five games when Memphis did not have to travel. After two straight upset wins, they look like a prime candidate for an emotional and physical letdown. As it is, this franchise has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 playoff games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Utah has covered the point spread in 11 of the last 18 games when avenging a close loss by three points or less. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Utah Jazz (546) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (545). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-26-21 |
Hawks v. Knicks UNDER 213 |
Top |
92-101 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (543) and the New York Knicks (544) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (42-31) has won five games in a row after their 107-105 victory in Madison Square Garden against the Knicks as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. New York (41-32) had their three-game winning streak snapped with the loss.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Atlanta allowed the Knicks to make 44.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Hawks have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a narrow win by six points or less. Atlanta was energized by the return of De’Andre Hunter to the court on Sunday after he missed much of the regular season to injury. Hunter is an excellent on-the-ball defender. The Hawks hold their opponents to -7.4 fewer points per 100 possessions when they have Hunter on the court. Hunter’s defense of the Knicks’ Julius Randle played a large role in his making only 6 of 23 shots from the field in Game One. Atlanta has improved on defense since Nate McMillan took over as head coach — they are third in the NBA by holding their opponents to just 34.9% shooting from downtown. The Knicks has made 42.5% of their 3-pointer since the start of April which was the best mark in the league — but they only made 10 of 30 (33%) shots from behind the arc in Game One. Against this Hawks’ defense jumpstarted by the return of Hunter, I don’t see New York approaching their recent 3-point shooting numbers in this series. Atlanta’s fresh legs will only help their defensive efforts. The Hawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 5 straight Unders when playing just their second game in seven days. Additionally, Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog. New York allowed the Hawks to make 46.7% of their shots which tied the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 11 games. The Knicks have an opponent’s field goal percentage of 44.0% — and they have held their last five opponents to just a 41.7% shooting clip even after Sunday’s game. New York has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. They are not likely to get 27 points again from Alec Burks who made 9 of his 13 shots in Game One. But head coach Tom Thibodeau should make some adjustments on defense for this contest. The Knicks have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss of three points or less. 25* NBA Wednesday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (543) and the New York Knicks (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-26-21 |
Wizards v. 76ers -8 |
|
95-120 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (542) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (541) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (50-23) has won three games in a row with their 125-118 win against the Wizards in Game One of this series as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. Washington (35-40) has lost four of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia was lax on defense in this game as they allowed the Wizards to make 55.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 46 games. Head coach Doc Rivers should get the play of their defense tightened up — the Sixers hold their guests to 45.0% shooting on their home court. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games with the total listed at 220 or higher. Additionally, the 76ers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games as the favorite. Washington's great shooting night came on the heels of them making 58.7% in their Play-In Tournament victory against Indiana last Thursday. But the Wizards have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. And while Washington has lost two of their last there games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 53 games on the road after losing two of their last three games. This is the Wizards’ fourth game in the last ten days — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing no more than four games in a ten-day span. This remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 playoff games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played in Philadelphia. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia 76ers (542) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-25-21 |
Mavs v. Clippers -6 |
Top |
127-121 |
Loss |
-111 |
11 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (536) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (535) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (47-26) looks to rebound from their 113-103 upset loss to the Mavericks in the opening game of this series as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Dallas (43-30) has won seven of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles closed out the regular season with twelve wins in their last sixteen games — but they need to get back to business after being upset in all three games of their current losing streak. One of those losses was their controversial upset loss on the last day of the regular season where they tanked the game to avoid the Lakers in the first round — the smart move since the reigning champions have a tough series of their own with the Phoenix Suns before a hypothetical “Battle for Los Angeles.” But head coach Tyron Lue needs to get his team back to playing good basketball. That should happen tonight. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss by 10 or more points at home. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George combined to make only 17 of their 40 shots from the field (42.5%) including going just 3 of 14 from behind the arc. As a team, Los Angeles made only 11 of 40 (27.5%) of their 3-pointers in Game One which was far below their 41.1% clip from downtown during the regular season. Besides interior players Serge Ibaka and Ivica Zubic, the Clippers’ top-11 players all make at least 39.7% of their 3-pointers. Los Angeles also needs to tighten up on defense after allowing the Mavericks to make at least 50% of their shots. The Clippers have let all three of their opponents during their recent losing streak make at least 50% of their shots — but they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Lue learned early in Game One that Zubac will be a liability in this series given his defense on the pick-and-roll. Luka Doncic torched him on Saturday. But Dallas is due for a visit from the Regression Gods after they made 50% of their shots from the field while nailing 17 of their 36 shots from downtown. That was the best field goal percentage in their last five games — and they did not even have the shooting of J.J. Redick who is out with a heel injury. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after an upset victory by 10 or more points. This remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games in the playoffs as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers are as healthy as they have been all season with Patrick Beverley, Serge Ibaka, and Marcus Morris all back in the mix after missing 35, 31, and 15 games respectively. Leonard and George missed 20 and 18 games as well. Los Angeles has now lost their last two games to the Mavericks after suffering a 105-89 loss at home to Dallas as a 2-point favorite on March 17th. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 110 points. LA has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with double-revenge. 25* NBA 1st Round Western Conference Playoffs Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Clippers (536) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-25-21 |
Lakers -1.5 v. Suns |
|
109-102 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (533) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (534) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (43-31) looks to rebound from their 99-90 loss to the Suns as a 2.5-point favorite in Game One of this series on Sunday. Phoenix (52-21) has won four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINT(S): We expected Los Angeles to be flat in Game One after getting a moment to exhale after surviving the Play-In Tournament (and the grind to avoid the ninth or tenth seed which would have required two straight victories. Anthony Davis had one of his worst games of the season by making only 5 of his 16 shots from the field with the Lakers getting outscored by 18 when he was on the floor. He will play better tonight. Los Angeles is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have veered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when failing to score more than 90 points in their last game. LeBron James has been in this spot before where his team lost Game One in one of the first three rounds of the playoffs. His teams are 39-12 straight up in Game Twos after an opening game loss — and they are 33-16-2 ATS in those spots. Even better, since the 2012-13 season, James’ teams are 19-2 straight-up and 14-5-2 ATS in their last 21 playoff games (excluding the NBA Finals) in Game Two after dropping Game One. The Lakers have been good on the road with a 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games when favored. And while the Lakers had won six in a row before this loss, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 road games after winning four or five of their last six games. Phoenix may be due for a letdown after taking the lead in this series. They are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread win. Learning how to handle short-term success may be one of the challenges this team will have to learn how to deal with given their playoff inexperience. By holding the Lakers to just 43.4% shooting, they played their best defensive game in their last 14 contests. Chris Paul will likely play with his right shoulder injury — it looks like a stinger injury which will likely impact his shot. He had trouble moving his arm after the injury on Sunday. Paul is not likely to be close to 100%.
FINAL TAKE: Paul is the glue for this to offer them playoff experience — so this is a tough injury. The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 35 home games when favored by up to six points. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Lakers (533) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-24-21 |
Blazers v. Nuggets -2 |
|
109-128 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (524) minus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (523) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (47-26) looks to bounce-back from their 123-109 upset loss to the Trail Blazers in Game One of this series on Saturday. Portland (43-30) has won seven of their last eight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver has rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Nuggets have lost two games in a row to the Blazers after losing at Portland last Sunday by a 132-116 score to close out the regular season. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Portland has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after pulling off an upset win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road after a win against a Northwest Division rival. The Blazers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning two in a row against divisional rivals. And this remains a team that is just 13-29-2 ATS in their last 44 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when trailing in a playoff series. And in their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a loss a home, the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 9 of these games. 10* NBA Monday Late Show Bailout with the Denver Nuggets (524) minus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (523). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-24-21 |
Heat +5 v. Bucks |
|
98-132 |
Loss |
-107 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (521) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (522) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (40-33) has lost two of their last three games after dropping the opening game of this series by a 109-107 score as a 5.5-point favorite. Milwaukee (47-26) has won four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: Miami was in a position to win Game One despite Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo combining to make only 8 of their 37 shots from the field. The team only hit 36.4% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 32 games. They will shoot better tonight. The Heat are better than their 40-33 record after enduring a season impacted by injuries and COVID issues. They are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Heat have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games as an underdog. Milwaukee played their best defensive game in their last 25 contests by holding Miami to just 36.4% shooting. But the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a victory at home by three points or less. Additionally, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. And while the Bucks have won nine of their last eleven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 24 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games when favored by up to six points. Furthermore, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games playoff games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss by three points or less. 10* NBA Miami-Milwaukee TNT Special with the Miami Heat (521) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-23-21 |
Grizzlies v. Jazz -9 |
Top |
112-109 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (516) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (515) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (52-20) goes into the postseason with seven wins in their last nine games after their 121-99 victory at Sacramento as an 11.5-point favorite last Sunday. Memphis (40-34) has won seven of their last eight games after their upset 117-112 win at Golden State as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Utah should build off the momentum from last week — they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after a double-digit win. They have also covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games after a point spread victory. And while they have covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Jazz hope that their star point guard Donovan Mitchell returns to the court tonight — he is listed as probable. Without him, the Utah Train did not derail. The Jazz won ten of their fifteen games after Mitchell’s ankle injury — and their +9.8 Net Rating over that span was tops in the NBA. Their Defensive Rating of 106.2 in their last 15 games is the best mark in the NBA. Utah is also third in the league in Offensive Rating due to a bevy of 3-point shooters. The Jazz average 43.3 shots from behind the arc per game — and they are fourth in the NBA by making 38.9% of these shots. The Grizzlies are 18th in the league by allowing their opponents to make 36.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Utah returns home where they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Jazz have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Memphis may be due for a letdown after their whirlwind week which included winning two straight single-elimination games. The team racked up the frequent flier miles — traveling from San Francisco last Sunday (after playing the Warriors to close out the regular season) back to Memphis to Los Angeles on Friday and now Salt Lake City. Playing at the higher altitude won’t help their cause either after this grueling week. As it is, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread win. Furthermore, Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Utah swept the three-game regular-season encounters between these two teams. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 playoff games as an underdog. 25* NBA 1st Round Sunday TNT Game of the Year with the Utah Jazz (516) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-23-21 |
Lakers v. Suns -2 |
|
90-99 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 3:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (514) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (513) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (51-21) enters the postseason on a three-game winning streak after their 123-121 win at San Antonio as a 2-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (43-30) survived the Play-In Tournament with their 103-100 win at home against Golden State as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: I don’t like this situation for the defending champions. Getting by the Warriors absolved them from the potential embarrassment of not making the playoffs. Now they have the luxury of a seven-game series — and I think they will exhale just a little bit after being in playoff mode for the last few weeks trying to avoid the Play-In Tournament. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a win at home. The Lakers are still not in-synch on the offensive end of the court just yet. They have only registered an offensive efficiency rate above 109.8 points per 100 possessions once in their last five games — and that was against an Indiana team that has been a train wreck on defense since losing Myles Turner to a season-ending injury. For context, 109.8 points per 100 possessions are what the Lakers averaged during their injury-riddled season which was just 24th in the league — so underachieving versus that meager number even with LeBron James and Anthony Davis back on the court is not good, Bob. Now they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games with the total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 playoff games as an underdog. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 42 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Suns are an offensive juggernaut that finished sixth in the NBA by scoring at a 117.7 points per 100 possession rate. They have made 47.2% or more of their shots in five straight games with a 51.0% or better mark in four of those games. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after making at least 47% of their shots in five straight games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on May 9th when the Suns were upset at Los Angeles by a 123-110 score as a 7-point favorite. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when avenging a same-season loss. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Phoenix TNT Special with the Phoenix Suns (514) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-23-21 |
Wizards v. 76ers -7.5 |
|
118-125 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (508) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (507) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (49-23) enters the postseason with two straight victories after their 128-117 victory against Orlando as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (35-i39) made the playoffs with their 142-115 win against Indiana as a 4.5-point favorite in the Play-In Tournament as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philly is cruising with ten wins in their last twelve games — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after winning two of their last three games. The 76ers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when they have at least three days of rest — so this group should be rested and ready. The Sixers are dominant on their home court where they are 29-7 with a net +8.9 Points-Per-Game differential. They make 48.6% of their shots at home which helps them generate 117.4 PPG. They are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 home games with the Total set at 220 to 229.5. Additionally, Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored overall — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. Washington made 58.1% of their shots in their blowout win against a Pacers’ team that could not play defense after losing their rim protector, Myles Turner, to a season-ending injury. The Wizards made 58.1% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last nine games. I expect a significant emotional letdown for this team after two Play-In Tournament games last week. As it is, Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when playing with two or more days of rest. The Wizards are much better than their losing record suggests because they have been hampered by injuries all season. But size remains a problem for this team — they really miss Thomas Bryant who suffered a season-ending injury early in the year. Defense and rebounding are liabilities for this team. Joel Embiid should dominate this game. While their defense and rebounding have improved, it is still middle of the pack at best — which is not great when playing the top seed in the Eastern Conference. The Wizards rank 12th in Defensive Rating over their last 15 games. They also rank 19th in Defensive Rebounding during that span. This is a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia also has not been healthy for much of the season but this team enters the postseason in as good a shape as they have been all season. Embiid is rested. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs when favored — and the Wizards have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 playoff games as an underdog. 10* NBA Washington-Philadelphia TNT Special with the Philadelphia 76ers (508) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (507). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-21 |
Blazers +1.5 v. Nuggets |
Top |
123-109 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 10:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (511) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Denver Nuggets (512). THE SITUATION: Portland (42-30) has won six of their last seven games after their 132-116 win against Denver as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Denver (47-25) had their three-game winning streak snapped with the loss, but they avoided a first-round matchup with the Lakers which may have impacted their short-term motivation in that game.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: Portland is a team that was impacted by a barrage of injuries throughout the regular season. C.J. McCollum missed 25 games. Jusuf Nurcic missed the early part of the season — and his absence impacted the overall defensive numbers for this team. The Blazers hold their opponents to -8.7 Points-Per-100 Possessions below their PPP defensive average when Nurcic is off the court. Portland has been in playoff mode to close out the regular season to avoid the Play-In Tournament. Getting healthy again has helped. They have won ten of their last twelve games while posting the second-best Net Rating in the NBA over that span. The Blazers have the best Offensive Rating in the league during that stretch — but it is the defensive numbers that may be more important. While Portland ranks 29th in Defensive Rating for the season, they improved to 15th in their last 12 games. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 130 points in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. Portland has been reliable on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games. The Blazers have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Portland has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, the Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with at least three days of rest. While Michael Porter has stepped up his game with the scoring burden increased on him, this is a playoff series where the Nuggets will really miss Jamal Murray who suffered a season-ending torn ACL. While Portland’s Damian Lillard and McCollum are a lethal backcourt duo on offense, they can be exploited on the defensive end of the court. Denver lacks dominant scoring threats in their backcourt without Murray — and the injury shooting guard Will Barton who will miss tonight’s game compounds this problem. Austin Rivers is also questionable with an illness so the Nuggets’ are thin at the guard position which only increases their defensive challenge in slowing down Lillard and McCollum. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games in expected higher-scoring games with the Total set at 220 or higher. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. And not having their top point guard in Murray has hurt the team down the stretch — they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Portland has covered the point spread in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. While the Blazers had more at stake in their contest on Sunday since the victory ensured they avoided the Play-In, it remains telling that the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by double-digits. 25* NBA Saturday ESPN Game of the Year with the Portland Trail Blazers (511) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Denver Nuggets (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-21 |
Celtics v. Nets UNDER 233 |
|
93-104 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (505) and the Brooklyn Nets (506) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (37-36) has won two of their last three games after their 118-100 victory over Washington in the Play-In Tournament as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Brooklyn (48-24) has won five games in a row with their 123-109 win against Cleveland as a 13-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics have played 27 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points. Boston has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Celtics go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last five games Under the Total as an underdog. Boston will really miss Jaylen Brown on both ends of the court in this series — but they are still a better defensive team than their season numbers indicate. Marcus Smart is their best on-the-ball defender — and he was injured for much of the season. Head coach Brad Stevens is not going to have his team attempt to run-and-gun with the Nets — they cannot win that game. Instead, he will likely want to slow the pace down and see if Jaylen Brown can keep his team in the game while he out-coaches Steve Nash and Mike D’Antoni on the Brooklyn sidelines. Boston has played 4 straight playoff games Under the Total when an underdog. Brooklyn has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. And while they have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least four straight games. Brooklyn’s defense is improving — while the Cavaliers made 44.7% of their shots on Sunday, that was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Nets have made at least 47.1% of their shots in five straight games — but they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after shooting at least 47% from the field in five straight.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams just played on April 23rd when the Nets won by a 109-104 score. The Total closed at 224.5 for that game that finished Under — that was the 4th straight Under between these two teams. With the number being bet up into the 230s, the value is with the Under. 10* NBA Boston-Brooklyn ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (505) and the Brooklyn Nets (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-21 |
Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 217.5 |
|
113-103 |
Win
|
102 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 4:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (509) and the Los Angeles Clippers (510) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (42-30) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 136-121 upset loss at Minnesota last Sunday. Los Angeles (47-25) has suffered two straight upset losses after their 117-112 upset loss at Oklahoma City as an 8-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dallas allowed the Timberwolves to make 54.4% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games. Head coach Rick Carlisle has seen improvement with his team’s play on the defensive end of the court in the second half of the season. While ranking 21st in the NBA in Defensive Rating for the season, they improved to 13th over their last 15 games (and that ranking is a bit skewed against them once their seeding was set and they rested players). The Mavericks have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. Dallas has also played 6 straight Unders when playing with at least three days of rest — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total when not playing more than their fourth game in ten days. The fresh legs should help the Mavericks defense in this one. They stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. And in their last 24 games as an underdog overall, Dallas has played 19 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles allowed the Thunder to make 53.2% of their shots after Houston to make 53.5% of their shots in their previous game. The Clippers should clean things up on defense — they ranked 8th in the league in Defensive Rating this season. That solid Adjusted Defensive Efficiency number should improve substantially in the playoffs with everyone healthy and back on the court. Patrick Beverley missed 35 games. Kawhi Leonard missed 20 games. Paul George missed 18 games. Serge Ibaka missed 31 games. Those four players are all outstanding defenders. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after a point spread loss. The time off should help this veteran team — they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest, and they have played 25 of their last 35 games Under the Total when not playing more than their fourth game in ten days. They return home where the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games. The Under is also 7-3-1 in the Clippers’ last 11 games as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight Unders including the Mavericks’ 105-89 victory at home as a 2-point underdog on March 17th in the last meeting between these two teams. The Total was set at 225 for that game so that result finished well below the number. Los Angeles has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss on the road. 10* NBA Dallas-LA Clippers ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (509) and the Los Angeles Clippers (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-21 |
Heat +5.5 v. Bucks |
|
107-109 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 2:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (503) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (504) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (40-32) enters the playoffs having won five of their last six games with their 120-107 victory at Detroit as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Milwaukee (46-26) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 118-112 upset loss at Chicago as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: Miami is playing their best basketball of the season after enduring a regular-season hit hard by injuries and COVID issues. Jimmy Butler was load-managed for much of the season — he did not play in any of the three regular-season games against the Bucks. The Heat will be very confident in this series after disposing of Milwaukee in the playoff bubble last fall. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when playing with at least three days of rest. Miami has been reliable on the road — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games away from home. They have covered the point spread in five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 43 games on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Furthermore, the Heat have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games as an underdog. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after an upset loss as a road favorite laying seven or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games after a point spread loss. And while the Bucks have still won three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after winning three of their last four. Milwaukee has not been a reliable favorite so far this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when laying the points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 35 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bucks are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the playoffs when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee got some measure of revenge from getting upset by the Heat in last year’s playoffs by winning two of the three meetings with Miami. The Bucks won the last encounter on May 15th by a 122-108 score — but the Heat have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Miami-Milwaukee ESPN Special with the Miami Heat (503) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-21-21 |
Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 222 |
|
117-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (579) and the Golden State Warriors (580). THE SITUATION: Memphis (39-34) has won six of their last seven games after their 100-96 win against San Antonio as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Golden State (39-34) had their six-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in their 103-100 loss at Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 5.5-point underdog. The winner of this game inherits the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs and a first-round date with Utah.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Grizzlies have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a close win by six points or less. They hit the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Memphis has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road by three points or less. Additionally, the Warriors have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. Golden State is fifth in the league in Defensive Rating — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have 20 of their last 27 meetings Under the Total. They last played five days ago on Sunday at Golden State where the Warriors won by a 113-101 score. Memphis has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total on the road when avenging a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Memphis-Golden State ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (579) and the Golden State Warriors (580). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-21-21 |
Grizzlies +5.5 v. Warriors |
Top |
117-112 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (579) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (580). THE SITUATION: Memphis (39-34) has won six of their last seven games after their 100-96 win against San Antonio as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Golden State (39-34) had their six-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in their 103-100 loss at Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 5.5-point underdog. The winner of this game inherits the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs and a first-round date with Utah.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: I really like this spot for Memphis — a young but very talented team that has experience playing in these single elimination games from the bubble last season. We had the Spurs on Wednesday — I mentioned then that the Grizzlies have not been a reliable favorite. But they have been consistent when donning the role of the underdog. Memphis has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as a dog. They will not have any pressure in this game with most of the world (and the betting public) assuming that Stephen Curry will carry his team to a comfortable victory. Ja Morant is a rising superstar. The Grizzlies also have a good interior player in Jonas Valancianas who can take advantage of the lack of size of the Warriors. The seven-footer is averaging 22.0 PPG while grabbing 15.4 Rebounds-Per-Game in his last five games. He scored 29 points against Golden State in their most recent game last Sunday. Injuries have depleted the Warriors’ depth at center so it will be Draymond Green who will likely be defending Valancianas. Green is a great defender, but he is only 6’6. Memphis will also have an edge on the boards — they lead the NBA by averaging 55.8 points in the paint per game. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win at home against a Southwest Division rival. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. And while Memphis has played four straight Unders, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after playing at least three straight Unders. Golden State may have blown their playoff chances on Wednesday considering they had a double-digit lead at halftime — and they were up 98-85 with just 2:30 minutes left in the fourth quarter. They held the Lakers to just 40.7% shooting which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. Now they are expected to get past the upstart Grizzlies. But the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss on the road where they covered the point spread as an underdog. Golden State struggles against teams who rebound — they have the fourth-lowest rebounding rate in the NBA and they allow the fourth-most second-chance points in the league. The Warriors are also 24th in the NBA by turning the ball over in 14.7% of their possessions — not a great trait in a favorite. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 39 of their last 61 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 25* NBA Play-In Tournament Game of the Year with the Memphis Grizzlies (579) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (580). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-20-21 |
Pacers v. Wizards -3 |
|
115-142 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Wizards (576) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (575). THE SITUATION: Washington (34-39) lost their initial Play-In Tournament game on Tuesday in a 118-105 loss at Boston as a 1.5-point underdog. Indiana (35-38) has won four of their last six games after their 144-117 win against Charlotte as a 1.5-point favorite in their first game in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday. The winner of this game inherits the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WIZARDS MINUS THE POINTS: Washington only made 43.5% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 15 games. They should respond with a better shooting performance tonight. The Wizards are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Washington returns home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Indiana made 16 of their 35 shots (46%) from 3-point range en route to their 55.2% shooting percentage in their victory against the Pacers -- that shooting mark was the best effort in their last seven games. But Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 130 points in their last game. And while the Pacers have nailed at least 50.5% of their shots in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after making at least 50% of their shots in three straight contests. Indiana is far full strength for this game. Caris LeVert is still out due to COVID quarantine protocols. Malcolm Brogdon played 21:20 minutes in his first action on the court in eleven games this month — but he is not close to 100% with his hamstring injury. As it is, the Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory.
FINAL TAKE: Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games in the playoffs. Despite the blowout victory against Charlotte, the Pacers have a volatile locker room with the team griping about head coach Nate Bjorkgren after they drove out Nate McMillan last year. Scott Brooks has a better culture in place with Washington — look for the Wizards to bounce-back. 10* NBA Indiana-Washington TNT Special with the Washington Wizards (576) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (575). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-20-21 |
Pacers v. Wizards UNDER 239 |
Top |
115-142 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (575) and the Washington Wizards (576). THE SITUATION: Indiana (35-38) has won four of their last six games after their 144-117 win against Charlotte as a 1.5-point favorite in their first game in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday. Washington (34-39) lost their initial Play-In Tournament game on Tuesday in a 118-105 loss at Boston as a 1.5-point underdog. The winner of this game inherits the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Indiana made 16 of their 35 shots (46%) from 3-point range en route to their 55.2% shooting percentage in their victory against the Pacers -- that shooting mark was the best effort in their last seven games. But Indiana has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in three straight games. The Pacers have also played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after scoring at least 130 points in their last game — and they have played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total after a game where at least 245 points were scored. Indiana raced out to 40 points in the opening quarter against the Hornets which allowed them to control the pace and tempo of that game. But I do not expect things to be as easy tonight on the road in Washington — and I suspect the pressure of a single-elimination playoff game will negatively impact their shooting. With the Total in the high-230s, it only takes one bad quarter where they score under 25 points to ruin Over bets. I am well aware of the Over Train that Indiana has been on since they lost their defensive presence in the middle in Myles Turner. But the average combined score for the Pacers’ 26 games without Turner being 241.3 is why the over/under is so high for this game. The value is simply with the Under at this point. The Malcolm Brogdon factor makes the Under even stronger. The point guard missed all ten games in May with his hamstring injury before playing 21:20 minutes on Tuesday. He should play tonight but will not be at full strength. Two things with this. First, Indiana tends to play at a slower pace with Brogdon on the court since he is more of a traditional point guard. Second, because the Pacers will need Brodgon late in the game if the game is tight, head coach Nate Bjorkgren will likely want to not push him too much so he is still viable late in the game. Bjorkgren will still not have the services of Caris LeVert who remains out given COVID protocols. As it is, Indiana has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. And while the Pacers' final regular-season game was a 125-113 victory against Toronto on Sunday, they have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after two straight double-digit wins. The Wizards are a high-scoring team that scores 116.4 PPG — but Indiana has played 35 of their last 54 road games in the second half of the season Under the Total against teams who are scoring at least 110 PPG. Washington has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points on the road. The Wizards return home where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total when favored. Washington also has a wounded guard with Bradley Beal not 100% with his hamstring.
FINAL TAKE: It sure might be tempting for bettors to take the Over after the three games between these two teams resulted in 265, 295, and 256 combined points. The Pacers allow their opponents to make 46.8% of their shots which results in 115.4 PPG — and the Wizards have played 25 of their last 40 games Under the Total against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 46% or higher. Washington has also played 32 of their last 55 games Under the Total against teams who allow at least 110 PPG. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (575) and the Washington Wizards (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-19-21 |
Warriors v. Lakers -5.5 |
|
100-103 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (570) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (569). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (42-30) has won five in a row with their 110-98 win at New Orleans on Sunday. Golden State (39-33) has won six straight games after their 113-101 win against Memphis as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. The winner of this game inherits the seventh seed in the Western Conference playoffs while the loser will face the winner of the earlier San Antonio-Memphis game to determine the eighth seed.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: While the Lakers are disappointed to have to compete in the Play-In Tournament, this was a team that was always built for the postseason anyways. I am just not going to read much into their 42-30 record especially given all the time that LeBron James and Anthony Davis missed. Winning this game decisively is important — not only to get the extra days of rest by avoiding the Friday single-elimination game but also because they know how dangerous Stephen Curry can be in a close game. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games after a win on the road. The Lakers play outstanding defense — they are second in the NBA by allowing 108.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. They also defend the perimeter by limiting their opponents to 36% shooting from 3-point land which is -1.2% below the league average. Los Angeles is in as good a position as possible to slow down Curry. Dennis Schroder is a pesky on-the-ball defender. LeBron James can play free safety amidst the Warriors’ attempts to pick-and-roll. Anthony Davis can play center in a small-ball lineup which gives Golden State another lengthy wing on the perimeter but without sacrificing Davis’ rim protection since he can defend the wing as well given his agility. Frank Vogel is an experienced defensive tactician as a head coach. And the roster is filled with veterans who have played the Steve Kerr motion offense designed to get Curry (and Klay Thompson) open looks. The Lakers also retain a significant size advantage against the Warriors. They controlled the boards in their three meetings against Golden State this season. The Warriors have covered the point spread in six straight games in their furious pace down the stretch to ensure they qualified for the Play-In Tournament — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And while they have covered the point spread in their last two games as a favorite, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after winning and covering the point spread in their last two games. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games in the second half of the season against teams winning 51-60% of their games. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Lakers (570) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (569). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-19-21 |
Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 220 |
Top |
100-103 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (569) and the Los Angeles Lakers (570). THE SITUATION: Golden State (39-33) has won six straight games after their 113-101 win against Memphis as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (42-30) has won five in a row with their 110-98 win at New Orleans on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. They go back on the road where they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total. Golden State has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Steph Curry may get the most of the attention for this team but their defensive prowess has been under-appreciated. The Warriors are fifth in the NBA in Defensive Rating. A slimmed-down Draymond Green has been a beast. And in the team has played better on the defensive end of the court after the season-ending injury to rookie James Wiseman as it has allowed head coach Steve Kerr to give more minutes to veterans who are better on defense. Golden State leads the league in Defensive Rating in their last 20 games which has fueled their late-season run. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. They have also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They return home where they have played 16 of their last 20 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points. The Lakers play outstanding defense — they are second in the NBA by allowing 108.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. They also defend the perimeter by limiting their opponents to 36% shooting from 3-point land which is -1.2% below the league average. Los Angeles is in as good a position as possible to slow down Curry. Dennis Schroder is a pesky on-the-ball defender. LeBron James can play free safety amidst the Warriors’ attempts to pick-and-roll. Anthony Davis can play center in a small-ball lineup which gives Golden State another lengthy wing on the perimeter but without sacrificing Davis’ rim protection since he can defend the wing as well given his agility. Frank Vogel is an experienced defensive tactician as a head coach. And the roster is filled with veterans who have played the Steve Kerr motion offense designed to get Curry (and Klay Thompson) open looks. But the Lakers’ offense is not elite. They rank 24th in the league in Offensive Rating this season. Granted, those numbers include a large number of games where they did not have James and/or Davis. But their Offensive Rating with James on the court is 112.4 and 112.5 with Davis on the court — and both those numbers translate into just a 14th ranking in the league. Even at full strength, the Lakers’ offense is just middle-of-the-road. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State wants to avenge a 128-97 loss to the Lakers on March 15th — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road avenging a same-season loss. Los Angeles held the Warriors to only 91 points in their 26-point win on February 28th. Defending Curry is not a new challenge for the Lakers. Even if he gets his points, Curry still needs his teammates to step up. Holding the Warriors to 97 and 91 points in their last two meetings is a testament to how effective the Lakers are in frustrating Curry’s ability to cook in the Golden State offense. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Play-In Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (569) and the Los Angeles Lakers (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-19-21 |
Spurs +4.5 v. Grizzlies |
Top |
96-100 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (567) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (568). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (33-39) limps into the postseason with four straight losses after their 123-121 loss to Phoenix as a 2-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (38-34) had their five-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in a 113-101 loss at Golden State as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio has lost ten of their last twelve games — but that does not worry me too much. Head coach Gregg Popovich has had one eye towards developing the young talent on his team for the future. This is a hard-working team with a versatile roster which will allow Popovich many options to keep his team in this single-elimination game. And with DeMar DeRozan leading the way alongside the underrated Dejounte Murray, the Spurs have veteran experience that can make big baskets. San Antonio is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. The Spurs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing at least four games in a row. The days of rest should help this team as well — they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with two days of rest. San Antonio has been capable road warriors this season — they are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games on the road and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 road games with the Total set at 220. The Spurs have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games against divisional rivals. Memphis has won six of their last eight games even after Sunday’s loss — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Grizzlies return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. This Memphis team has a very bright future — but I prefer them in the underdog role right now, in general. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. This team’s clutch numbers are underwater — they have a Net Rating of -6.1 in clutch time which is just 21st in the NBA. This makes their ability to pull away in close games harder to pull off. It is telling that they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games when favored by up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has dominated the last two meetings with the Spurs this season. They followed up a 129-112 upset win on the road as a 3.5-point underdog on January 30th with a 133-102 victory in San Antonio as a 4-point underdog on February 1st. San Antonio has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when avenging loss by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss by at least 30 points. And in their last 9 opportunities at revenge from two straight upset losses to their opponent, the Spurs have covered the point spread 6 times. Trust Pop tonight. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Year with the San Antonio Spurs (567) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-18-21 |
Wizards v. Celtics -1.5 |
Top |
100-118 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 2 m |
Show
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At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (562) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (561). THE SITUATION: Boston (36-36) limps into the postseason with five losses in their last six games after their 96-92 loss at New York as a 12-point underdog on Sunday. Washington (34-38) has won two games in a row after their 115-110 win against Charlotte as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINT(S): Boston has been one of the biggest disappointments in the regular season with their inconsistent play. Too often this season, the Celtics’ players took games off — especially on defense. But this is a team that has been hit hard by injuries and COVID quarantining issues. Their ability to make a deep playoff run took a big hit with the season-ending injury to Jaylen Brown. But this is a veteran team with plenty of playoff experience that should be able to step up their game to secure the seventh seed tonight. Kemba Walker is finally playing better after a disappointing regular season — he is scoring 29.8 PPG on 50.6% shooting in his last four games. The acquisition of Evan Fournier at the trade deadline has been proven as he has averaged 18.6 PPG on 46.9% shooting since joining the Celtics. And with Jayson Tatum leading the way, Boston will have the best player on the court (especially at crunch time). The Celtics have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after losing five or six of their last seven games — including ten of these last eleven situations. Boston has played three straight Unders — and they have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 55 games after playing at least two straight Unders. The Celtics return home after playing their last three games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing at least three in a row away from home. Washington held the Hornets to just 39.4% shooting which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 28 games. But the Wizards have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a win against a divisional rival. Washington has also failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 52 road games after a point spread loss. Bradley Beal is not 100% with a nagging hamstring, but he will play tonight. That puts more of the onus on Russell Westbrook who is a triple-double machine — but his judgment is too often lacking in crunch-time as he tries to do too much (like test his poor 3-point shooting skills). There is a reason that the Wizards have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when listed at +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Washington plays at one of the fastest paces in the league — they average 91 shots per game. But Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games in the second half of the season against teams who attempt at least 88 shots per game. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games of a playoff series under head coach Brad Stevens. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Play-In Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (562) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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