09-01-20 |
Celtics v. Raptors -1.5 |
|
102-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (724) mini the points versus the Boston Celtics (723) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Toronto (57-20) looks to bounce back from their 112-94 upset loss to Boston on Sunday as a 2-point underdog. Boston (53-24) has now won five straight games after taking a 1-0 lead in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS MINUS THE POINTS: Toronto may have played their worst game in the bubble on Sunday. They made only 36.9% of their shots in that game which was the lowest field goal percentage in their thirteen games in the bubble. They also allowed the Celtics to make 47% of their shots which was the highest field goal percentage they have allowed in the Orlando bubble. Granted, Boston is great competition — but the Raptors are much better than what they showed in Game One. Pascal Siakam was in foul trouble in Game One which held this team back. Toronto has rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an Atlantic Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss. The Raptors have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Toronto has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the playoffs when favored. Boston’s offensive performance was the best in their last three games — and they also made a sizzling 47.2% of their shots from behind the arc which is not sustainable. 46% of their shots in Game One were from 3-point land which is also out of character for Brad Stevens’ team. The Celtics average 35.8% of their shots from the field from behind the arc — and they make 36.9% of these shots so their performance on Sunday was out of character. Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning at least four games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least five games in a row. The Celtics have still failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has won all eleven of their games inside the bubble against teams who are not the Celtics — but they have lost both their games in Orlando against Boston. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing with double-revenge. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Toronto Raptors (724) mini the points versus the Boston Celtics (723). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-31-20 |
Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 226.5 |
|
100-104 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (717) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (718) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Houston (47-30) has the opportunity to close out this series tonight after their 114-80 victory over the Thunder as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma City (46-31) trails by a 3-2 margin in this series and will be looking to force a climactic seventh game for this series on Wednesday. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 85 points in their last game. Houston has also played 32 of their last 50 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Getting Russell Westbrook back on the court gave the Rockets another outstanding ball defender. They did a very good job of defending the Thunder’s attempt to create scoring opportunities via isolation — and they have forced them into taking too many ill-advised 3s. But Westbrook looked rusty as he missed ten of his thirteen shots from the field. Houston has still scored 114 points in each of their last two games — but they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after scoring at least 110 points in two straight games. Furthermore, the Rockets have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games away from home Under the Total when playing their second game in five days. Oklahoma City was a mess on offense as they made just 7 of their 46 shots from behind the arc en route to only making 31.5% of their shots overall. Head coach Billy Donovan has a dilemma on his hands. He needs to give Luguentz Dort playing time because he is his best defender against James Harden. But Dort is a liability on offense — he was just three of sixteen from the field on Saturday while missing all nine of his 3-pointers. Donovan is also playing Steven Adams to offer a rim protector (something he will likely feel compelled to do with Westbrook now healthy) — but when Adams is on the court with Dort, the Rockets are comfortable playing off both players and cram the paint. Oklahoma City has played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total with the number set at 220 or higher. The Under is also a decisive 47-21-1 in the Thunder’s last 69 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by 30 or more points. 10* NBA Houston-Oklahoma City TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (717) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (718). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-20 |
Nuggets v. Jazz -2.5 |
|
119-107 |
Loss |
-105 |
0 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (714) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (713) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (47-30) looks to bounce back from a 117-110 upset loss to the Nuggets last Tuesday. Denver (48-30) still trails 3-2 in this series while facing the possibility of elimination tonight. This game is being played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: The Nuggets pulled out Game Five of this series on Tuesday by making 50.6% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But Denver may suffer an emotional letdown after staving off elimination in that game as they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games on the road after a double-digit victory. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games away from home after a point spread victory. Furthermore, while Denver has covered the point spread in the last two games in this series, they have then failed to cover the point spread 10 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The two extra days off from the brief stoppage in play this week may also serve to derail any momentum the Nuggets were building as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when playing with at least three days of rest. This remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. Utah shot 50% from the field on Tuesday which was actually their lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. They made 16 of their 34 shots from behind the arc but missed five of their six shots from 3-point land in the 4th quarter blow what had been a double-digit lead. The Jazz also committed 15 turnovers in Game Five after averaging just 9 turnovers per game in the first four games of this series. Utah should play better tonight — they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets look to get Garry Harris back for this game after his hip injury has kept him out of all the bubble games in Orlando. Will his presence make his teammates let up on defense? Denver’s lack of effort on defense in this series has been a concern. His return could also mean fewer minutes for P.J. Dozier who was +21 points in the +/- metric in his nineteen minutes in Game Five. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Utah Jazz (714) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (713). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-20 |
Celtics v. Raptors OVER 217 |
|
112-94 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (709) and the Toronto Raptors (710) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (52-24) has won four straight games after their 110-106 win over Philadelphia last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite as they completed their opening-round sweep of the 76ers. Toronto has won eight straight games after they swept Brooklyn in their opening-round series after defeating them last Sunday by a 150-122 score as a 14-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Raptors 28-point victory over the Nets came on the heels of their 117-92 win over Brooklyn in Game Three of that series — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning two straight games by at least double-digits. Toronto has played a decisive 37 of their last 59 games Over the Total after a game where at least 235 points were scored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a game where at least 245 combined points were scored. The Raptors made 50.4% of their shots in Game Three before improving on that effort by nailing 55.4% of their shots in Game Four — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after shooting 50% from the field in two straight games. The Raptors are playing at a fast pace as they attempted 91 shots in Game Three before taking 101 shots in Game Four — and they have then played 15 of their last 20 games away from home Over the Total after attempting at least 90 shots in two straight games. For the season, the Raptors average 88 shot attempts per game — and Boston has played 28 of their last 47 games Over the Total against teams who average at least 88 shots per game. The long rest should ensure the Celtics have fresh legs that usually help their offensive attack. Boston has played 41 of their last 63 games Over the Total when playing with at least three days of rest — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total when playing not more than their third game in ten days. Additionally, the Celtics have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 70%.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are dealing with significant injuries. Boston will be without Gordon Hayward who is on the shelf with an ankle injury. Toronto may be without Kyle Lowry who is questionable with an ankle injury of his own. The Raptors average 3.5 more possessions per game when Lowry is not on the court — so his potential absence should lead Toronto to play quicker. These two teams played in the bubble on August 7th where the Celtic won by a 122-100 score as a 2-point underdog. Toronto has played 32 of their last 51 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed their opponent to score at least 110 points including eight of these last thirteen situations. 10* NBA Boston-Toronto ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (709) and the Toronto Raptors (710). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-29-20 |
Magic +13.5 v. Bucks |
|
104-118 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Orlando Magic (702) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (701) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Orlando (34-43) looks to bounce back from a 121-106 loss to the Bucks as a 13-point underdog on Monday. Milwaukee (59-18) looks to close out this series up 3-1 in this series. This game was originally scheduled for Wednesday afternoon before the Bucks decided to engage in a strike regarding the recent events in Wisconsin which eventually led to the cancellation of games for three days. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAGIC PLUS THE POINTS: The Bucks are in cruise control at this point in the series after receiving a scare by losing Game One of this series. Covering a double-digit point spread is a different expectation than just doing what is necessary to comfortably win the game. This Milwaukee team has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. And while they have outrebounded Orlando by at least six boards in each of their last three victories, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after being outrebounding their last three opponents by at least 5 rebounds per game. These two teams have seen at least 227 points scored in the last two games of this series — and the Magic have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after playing two straight games where at least 215 points were scored. Orlando ha also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after suffering at least three straight losses. And while they have allowed at least 110 points in five straight games, the Magic have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 110 points in four straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Hold your nose if you need to (I might) — but these are too many points to pass up in a likely elimination game where the Bucks players’ minds have been elsewhere after initiating the protest this week (and they might also be looking ahead to the Miami Heat). 10* NBA Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Orlando Magic (701) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-25-20 |
Mavs v. Clippers -8 |
|
111-154 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (716) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (715) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (51-25) looks to bounce back from their 135-133 overtime loss to the Mavericks on Sunday in the fourth game of this series as a 7-point favorite. Dallas (45-34) has won two of the last three games in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in a decisive 36 of their last 52 games after a straight-up loss under head coach Doc Rivers. The Clippers have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. LA needs to tighten things up on defense after allowing the Mavericks to make at least 50% of their shots for the third straight game. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Dallas may be due for a letdown after Luka Doncic won Game Four with his phenomenal buzzer-beating backup 3-pointer. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after scoring at least 130 points in their last game. The Mavs were without Kristaps Porzingis on Sunday — and he is likely to not play tonight given his knee injury. His absence will hurt the scoring output for this team — and Luka Doncic may not be able to play Superman two games in a row for this team considering his bum ankle he is dealing with. While Dallas is scoring 123.5 PPG in this series, they are also allowing 123.8 PPG to the Clippers despite a slumping Paul George.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when looking to avenge an upset loss to their opponent. 20* NBA Dallas-LA Clippers TNT Special with the Los Angeles Clippers (716) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (715). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-25-20 |
Jazz v. Nuggets +3 |
|
107-117 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (714) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (713) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (47-30) finds themselves on the brink of elimination tonight after losing Game Four of this series on Sunday with their 129-127 loss as a 3.5-point underdog. Utah (47-29) has won three straight games in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS PLUS THE POINTS: Denver should respond with a strong effort in this situation despite losing six of their last seven games with their lone victory being in the opening game of this series. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after dropping four or five of their last six games. They did work harder on defense on Sunday even if the results were not there. Denver has then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. The Nuggets are losing this series at the free throw line where Utah’s 36 attempts were twenty-three more than the opportunities Denver had at the charity stripe. The Jazz held a 26 to 11 free throw attempt in Game Three of this series as well — but the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after attempting at least ten fewer free throw attempts than their opponent in two straight games. Utah nailed 57.5% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting effort in their twelve games in the bubble — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. The Jazz have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning three straight games against divisional rivals. Utah has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Furthermore, Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when playing their fourth game on the road in the last seven days. Additionally, the Jazz have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games when up 3-1 in the series. And this Utah team remains an ugly 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games when the favorite. FINAL TAKE: There is a chance that Garry Harris will make his debut for Nuggets in the bubble tonight as he has been upgraded to questionable with a hip injury. He will really help slow down the Utah offense. Denver has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing with double revenge. Together, these team trends produce our specific 87-22-2 ATS combined angle for this situation. 25* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Year with the Denver Nuggets (714) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (713). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-25-20 |
Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 219 |
|
107-117 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (714) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (713) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (47-29) has won three straight games in this series after winning Game Four of this series on Sunday with their 129-127 loss as a 3.5-point favorite. Denver (47-30) finds themselves on the brink of elimination tonight. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jazz have scored at least 124 points in all four games of this series — and they have nailed at least 51.2% of their shots in their last three victories after they shot 57.5% from the field on Sunday which included them making 48% of their 3-pointers. Utah has an effective field goal percentage of 61% in the playoffs which is the best mark of all sixteen teams. The Over is 19-9-1 in the Jazz’s last 29 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Utah has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Jazz have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a favorite. Denver has been overmatched on the defensive end of the court while missing the injured Gary Harris and Will Barton who are two of their better perimeter defenders. The Nuggets have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Over is a decisive 35-14-2 in Denver’s last 51 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last contest. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by just 3 points or less. 10* NBA Utah-Denver TNT O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (714). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-20 |
Pacers v. Heat UNDER 218 |
|
87-99 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Monday, will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (705) and the Miami Heat (706) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (47-29) took a commanding 3-0 lead in this series on Saturday with their 124-115 victory over the Pacers as a 5-point favorite. Indiana (45-31) faces elimination from the playoffs. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Brooklyn Nets decided to not play defense yesterday when they were down 3-0 in their series with Toronto — and that is something I have considered for this game. These bubble games on neutral courts without fans where playoff elimination does have the benefit of offering the losing players the liberation of returning to their families. Yet I expect the Pacers to avoid the fate of the Nets’ players yesterday — they consistently play hard for head coach Nate McMillan. Besides, the longer they can keep this series alive, the better the chances they can get Domantas Sabonis who has returned to the bubble and is quarantining after dealing with plantar fasciitis. His return could be a game-changer for Indiana in this series. One game at a time. Indiana lost on Saturday despite making 48.8% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. The Pacers started slowly in Game Three by falling behind by a 74-56 margin — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after falling behind by at least 15 points at halftime in their last game. Indiana has also played 12 of their last 19 games on the road when playing their fourth game in seven days. Additionally, the Pacers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog in the playoffs. Indiana has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. And in their last 77 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range, the Pacers have played 46 of these games Under the Total. Miami made 45.3% of their shots on Saturday which was their best shooting mark in this series. The Heat have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the playoffs with a 3-0 lead under head coach Erik Spoelstra. They also have played 6 of their last 8 playoff games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Indiana has played 42 of their last 68 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. The first two games of this series went Under the Total before Game Three’s Over. Expect another lower scoring game tonight. 10* NBA Indiana-Miami TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (705) and the Miami Heat (706). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-20 |
Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 224 |
|
114-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (703) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (704) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (45-30) won their first game in this series on Saturday with their 119-107 victory in overtime over the Rockets as a 2.5-point underdog. Houston (46-29) still holds a 2-1 lead in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Thunder made only 44.6% of their shots on Saturday yet that was still the best shooting effort in their last six games. Oklahoma City has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Under is also 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after a point spread victory. Head coach Billy Donovan looks to have decided to trade offense for defense in this series by giving significant minutes to big man Steven Adams and Luguentz Dort who has the defensive assignment of covering James Harden. Dort did a nice job on Harden in Game Three by limiting him to just 12 of 27 shooting along with him making only 3 of his 13 shots from behind the arc. But Adams and Dort are not shooters nor big offensive threats which makes it easier on the switching Rockets’ defense. The Under is 41-20-1 in Oklahoma City’s last 62 games as an underdog — and they have played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Thunder have also played 21 of their last 30 games with the Total set in the 220s. Houston has played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Rockets have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Rockets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Houston has seen their shooting percentage decline in each game in this series so the grind of playing every other day may be getting to their 3-point shooting fest. This is a team that has played 8 straight games Under the Total on the road when playing their fourth game in seven days. The Rockets have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Expect a lower-scoring game. 10* NBA Houston-Oklahoma City TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (703) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-23-20 |
Nuggets +3.5 v. Jazz |
|
127-129 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (747) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (748) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (47-28) got crushed on Sunday in the third game of this series by losing by a 124-87 score to the Jazz. Utah (45-29) has won the last two games in this series as well as three of their last four contests. This game is being played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS PLUS THE POINTS: Denver played their worst game in their eleven games in the bubble on Friday. Not only is their defense still lackluster but they made only 37.5% of their shots which was the lowest mark in their eleven games in Orlando. The Nuggets certainly miss Gary Harris and Will Barton who will be still out for this game. But Denver remains loaded with talent that will be asked to step up in this game. Head coach Mark Malone will need Jamal Murray, Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic, and the emerging Michael Porter to step up with big games tonight. Denver has not covered the point spread in the last two games in this series after losing Game Two in this series by 19 points — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. And while the Nuggets have only covered the point spread once in their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games — and this includes them covering the point spread in four of these last five occasions. Furthermore, this experienced Denver roster has covered the point spread in their last 3 playoff games when trailing in the series. Utah may be due for a letdown after these two dominant performances. The Jazz have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning their last two games by double-digits over a Northwest Division rival. Utah has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. The Jazz have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road when playing their fourth game in seven days. Utah played their best defensive game in the bubble on Friday while shooting over 50% for the second straight game. But this remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. And the Jazz are just 4-15-2 ATS in their last 21 games when favored — and most of those games were when they had Bojan Bogdanovich who was the team’s best 3-point shooter before his season-ending wrist injury.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with double-revenge. Look for them to play harder on the defensive end of the court which should make things more difficult for the Jazz shooters. 10* NBA Denver-Utah TNT Special with the Denver Nuggets (747) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (748). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-23-20 |
Raptors v. Nets UNDER 221.5 |
|
150-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (745) and the Brooklyn Nets (746). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (35-39) finds themselves on the brink of elimination today after losing Game Three of this series on Friday by a 117-92 score as an 11-point underdog. Toronto (55-19) has won seven straight games. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets really miss their best 3-point shooter in Joe Harris who left the team to deal with a family emergency. Without Harris’ outside shooting threat, the Raptors pay more attention to Jarrett Allen close to the basket. Brooklyn maned only 22 points in the paint on Friday. They also made only 16 of their 51 shots (31.4%) from behind the arc while settling for a 33.3% shooting percentage overall. Interim head coach Jacques Vaughn was already dealing with a depleted roster with seven of the players he had in March not making the trip to Orlando. This Nets team lacks scoring options. Brooklyn has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a loss to an Atlantic Division rival. The Nets have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Brooklyn has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after losing two straight games against Atlantic Division rivals. And in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog, the Nets have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Toronto may be due for a scoring letdown after making 50.5% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their eleven games in the bubble. The Raptors have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They also have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 10 points — and they have played 27 of their last 35 games Under the Total after winning at least two in a row against a divisional rival.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. 10* NBA Toronto-Brooklyn TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (745) and the Brooklyn Nets (746). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-23-20 |
Celtics -7.5 v. 76ers |
|
110-106 |
Loss |
-107 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (741) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (742) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (51-24) seized a commanding 3-0 lead in this series on Friday with their 102-94 victory over the 76ers as a 6-point favorite. Philadelphia (43-33) has lost and failed to cover the point spread in all three games of this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: The Sixers played very hard on Friday — and they enjoyed a 94-92 lead with 2:14 left in the 4th quarter. But a series of turnovers and miscues — with Joel Embiid leading the way with these mistakes — led to the Celtics scoring the final 10 points in that game to both win and cover the point spread. I think this loss — and the way that Philadelphia blew the game — is going to put them in the proverbial tank. This has always been an emotionally volatile team where too often they failed to meet the sky-high expectations of a nice roster that was built from years of tanking as the organization embraced “the process.” Embiid has fueled with Ben Simmons over who was the “leader” of the team — so this series has been the former Kansas’ star opportunity to shine with Simmons out the season with his knee injury. Yet Embiid has failed at this moment. Now over three weeks in the quarantined bubble, look for the 76ers to have their minds set on what is described in the European soccer circles as “the beach.” I am expecting a half-hearted effort from Philly in this one. This is their personality when facing adversity. Looking to team trends to discern a personality of this group, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. The 76ers have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games on the road against Atlantic Division opponents. Furthermore, Philly has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. One of the frustrating aspects of losing Game Three for the Sixers is by holding the Celtics to just 29.5% shooting, they played their best defensive game in their eleven games in the bubble. Boston assisted on just 15 of their 36 field goals while making only 41.4% of their shots which was their worst shooting effort in this series. The Celtics also committed more turnovers in Game Three than they did in Games One and Two combined. Look for Boston to play better this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a point spread victory. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, Boston has covered the point spread in 4 straight games as a favorite — and they are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games in the playoffs as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games away from home when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 100 points. 10* NBA Boston-Philadelphia ABC-TV Special with the Boston Celtics (741) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (742). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-22-20 |
Pacers +5 v. Heat |
|
115-124 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
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At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (733) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (734) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Indiana (45-30) will be playing with desperation in this game after falling behind 2-0 in this series after their 109-100 loss to the Heat as a 3.5-point underdog on Thursday. Miami (46-29) went 3-5 in seeding games in the bubble but have stepped up their play so far in this series. This game is being played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS PLUS THE POINTS: Indiana misses the inside presence of Domantas Sabonis who is out with a foot injury. Sabonis plays an important tole as a ball facilitator for this team — but the Pacers simply need to shoot the ball better to be more competitive in this series. Victor Oladipo made on 5 of his 14 shots on Thursday with Malcolm Brogdon making just 4 of his 14 shots from the field in that game. Indiana made only 44.4% of their shots in Game Two which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. This team plays hard for head coach Nate McMillan — look for them to play their best game so far in this series today. Indiana has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. The Pacers have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games after a point spread loss — and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread setback. Indiana did not cover the point spread in the opening game of this series but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. Miami is riding high with 2-0 lead in this series and no true road games to worry about — but they are just 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games after a straight-up win. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 13 games away from home when playing their third game in five days, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: The Pacers need to attack the paint more in this game according to McMillan — and that should open up space for T.J. Warren to find his range from behind the arc. While Warren shot 52.4% from downtown in the eight seeding games en route to his 31.0 PPG scoring average, he is still making 40% of his 3-pointers so far in this series although he has averaged just 18.0 PPG. 10* NBA Indiana-Miami TNT Special with the Indiana Pacers (733) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (734). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-22-20 |
Bucks v. Magic +13 |
|
121-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
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At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Orlando Magic (732) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (731) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Orlando (34-41) saw their two-game losing streak end on Thursday with their 111-96 loss to the Bucks as a 13.5-point underdog. Milwaukee (57-18) snapped a two-game losing streak to even this series at 1-1. This game is being played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAGIC PLUS THE POINTS: Orlando made only 34.8% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last ten games. They made nine fewer shots from 3-point land than they did in Game One where they made 49.4% of their shots (after shooting 57.1% from the field in their last seeding game in the bubble). The Magic scored at just a 94.2 points per 100 possession clip in Game Two — look for them to improve and perform closer to their hot 114.5 points per 100 possession rate on Tuesday in the opening game of this series. Orlando has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss. The Magic have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games as a double-digit underdog. Milwaukee played one of their best games in the bubble — but I don’t think they have suddenly flipped the switch from their mediocre play in Orlando. The Bucks ranked just 11th in the seeding games in Net Rating — and they are just 10th in Net Rating so far in the playoffs. They did made play their best defensive game in Orlando by holding the Magic to just 34.8% shooting. And their 47.2% shooting mark was their best in the last three games. But Khris Middleton remains in a funk as he missed 15 of his 20 shots and registered a mere 2 points. Milwaukee has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win. The Bucks have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Milwaukee has struggled to be completely focused against teams with a losing record as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Orlando missed 25 of their first 28 shots on Thursday which set the tone for the game. But they remain tied in this series at 1-1 and should play better this afternoon. Too many points to pass up on a neutral court when facing a Bucks team that is underperforming their regular season performance through February. 10* NBA Milwaukee-Orlando NBA-TV Special with the Orlando Magic (732) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (731). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-21-20 |
Clippers -5 v. Mavs |
|
130-122 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (727) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (728) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (50-24) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their 127-114 upset loss as a 5-point favorite. Dallas (44-33) snapped a three-game losing streak with this victory to even the series at 1-1. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they have won 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. The Clippers have also won 8 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss. And LA has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Additionally, the Clippers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when favored. Expect a better game out of Paul George who missed 13 of his 17 shots from the field while enduring an unlikely -13 plus/minus mark when he was on the court. Dallas may suffer a letdown after that upset victory as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Mavericks are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a double-digit loss. Dallas played their best defensive game in their last seven contests by holding the Clippers to just 44% shooting. But moving forward, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. And in their last 13 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Look for the Clippers to step to play their best game so far in this series. Not only have they bounced-back to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after an upset loss but they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponent. 10* NBA LA Clippers-Dallas TNT Special with the Los Angeles Clippers (727) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (728). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-21-20 |
Nuggets +1.5 v. Jazz |
|
87-124 |
Loss |
-105 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
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At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (723) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Utah Jazz (724) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (47-28) has lost four of their last five games after their 124-105 upset loss to Utah on Wednesday as a 3.5-point favorite. Utah (45-29) has won two of their last three games. This game is being played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: The Jazz played one of their best games inside the bubble on Wednesday as they made 20 of their 44 shots from behind the arc which helped fuel their 51.7% shooting mark overall which was the best shooting effort in their ten games in Orlando. But Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after pulling off an upset victory over a Northwest Division rival — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Jazz are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing with one day of rest. Utah has still failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 8 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals, the Jazz have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests. Denver should respond with a better effort as they are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Nuggets have lost five of their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing five or six of their last seven contests. Defense has been an issue for this team as they have allowed at least 113 points in each of their ten games in the bubble — but they have then covered the point spread in 45 of their last 70 games after allowing at least 105 points in at least four straight games. Denver has also covered the point spread in 25 of their last 39 games against Northwest Division rivals.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 opportunities to avenge a double-digit loss. Late steam has made Utah the small favorite in this game. Both these teams are at less than full strength in this series with Will Barton and Gary Harris out with injuries for Denver but Bojan Bogdanovich not in the bubble for the Jazz. Utah is getting Michael Conley back for this game — but his presence does not warrant this much line movement (so happily take the points for some insurance). 10* NBA Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Denver Nuggets (723) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Utah Jazz (724). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-20-20 |
Thunder +2 v. Rockets |
|
98-111 |
Loss |
-105 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
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At 3:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (713) plus the points versus the Houston Rockets (714) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (44-29) has lost three of their last four games after losing the opening game of this series to the Rockets by a 123-108 score despite being a 1-point favorite. Houston (45-28) snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER PLUS THE POINTS: Houston played about as well as they can in this contest especially without Russell Westbrook who is not ready to play yet in this series. The Rockets launched 52 shots from behind the arc — and they nailed 20 of these shots generating 60 points on their 38% shooting. Houston shot 48.3% from the field overall in this game which was the best shooting mark in their last eight games. They even got 22 points from Jeff Green. But the Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset victory. Houston has also filed to over the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with one day of rest. The Rockets have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored. Oklahoma City should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after suffering an upset loss by at least 10 points. The Thunder have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while Oklahoma City has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two in a row. Head coach Billy Donovan has the advantage in this game in making some tactical adjustments in the fascinating matchup between their size and the Rockets’ commitment to small-ball. Look for the Thunder to play more of the three-guard lineups featuring Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander along with Dennis Schroeder who found success playing together in the second half. OKC has covered the point spread in 41 of their last 61 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Thunder have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. Even after Tuesday’s game, Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Rockets. 10* NBA Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder (713) plus the points versus the Houston Rockets (714). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-18-20 |
Blazers v. Lakers -6.5 |
|
100-93 |
Loss |
-109 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (768) minus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (767) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (52-19) begins its 2020 postseason having lost four of their last five games after their 136-122 loss to Sacramento as a 3.5-point favorite last Thursday. Portland (36-39) advanced to the Western Conference playoffs with their 126-122 win over Memphis in the play-in game on Saturday where they were 5.5-point favorites. This game is being played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Trail Blazers have been playing with a sense of urgency for nine straight games since entering the bubble given that were 3 1/2 games behind Memphis for the 8th and final spot in the Western Conference playoffs before the stoppage of play in March. Expect an emotional letdown from this team in this opening game of a seven-game series. As it is, Portland has won their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning at least three in a row. The Trail Blazers are also just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Additionally, Portland has not been a reliable underdog as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they are 4-9-1 AT in their last 14 games in the playoffs games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Blazers are just 10-26-2 ATS in their last 38 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. Damian Lillard has carried this Portland team — but it has come at a cost as he has averaged 41 minutes per game for the nine games in the bubble. On the other side of the court is LeBron James who has never been more rested at any point in his professional career after not taking part in the playoffs last year and then seeing five months lost to COVID-19. James is averaged a healthy 31 minutes per game in the bubble to help get him in game shape — Lillard’s 112 more minutes so far in the restart represent almost two full games that he has played in comparison. The Lakers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with at least three days of rest. And in their last 11 games with the Total set at 230 or higher, the Lakers covered the point spread in 7 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles will have revenge on their mind after the Blazer upset the Lakers at the Staples Center on January 31st by a 127-119 score despite being a 13-point underdog. The Lakers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss where they were laying at least 7 points. 20* NBA Portland-LA Lakers TNT Special with the Los Angeles Lakers (768) minus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (767). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-18-20 |
Magic v. Bucks -13 |
|
122-110 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
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At 1:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (762) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (761) in the opening game of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (56-17) was just 3-5 in the bubble after losing three of their last four games with their 119-106 loss to Memphis last Thursday as a 3.5-point underdog. Orlando (33-40) snapped their five-game losing streak in the bubble with their 133-127 win over Orlando as a 4-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Magic made 57.1% of their shots against the Pelicans which was their best shooting effort since the return to play. They had not shot better than 42% from the field in their previous four games. I would feel better about this team if Jonathan Isaac did not suffer a season-ending knee injury in the bubble — and Mo Bamba left the bubble for health reasons. This Orlando team will also likely be without Michael Carter-Williams who has been downgraded to doubtful for this game while Aaron Gordon is questionable with his hamstring. The absence of Gordon (or if he is not at full strength) is particularly troublesome since he was a pretty effective defender on Giannis Antetokounmpo — he held him to just 38.1% shooting in the regular season. These are not encouraging developments for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Magic have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with at least three days of rest. And in their last 16 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, Orlando has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of these games. Milwaukee has looked uninspired in their bubble games — and they were not playing their best basketball in March when the stoppage of play occurred. Antetokounmpo has complained about his team’s intensity on defense. But look for the Bucks to step up their game this afternoon. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 31 of their last 44 games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss. Furthermore, the Bucks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with at least three days of rest. Milwaukee has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the playoffs when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee had a +9.4 Net Rating per 100 possessions which was the best mark by far in the regular season. And they were able to accomplish this despite head coach Mike Budenholzer deploying a deep bench. Antetokounmpo was the only player to average more than 30 minutes per game (30.4). The starting five of Antetokoumpo along with Khris Middleton, Wesley Matthews, Eric Bledsoe, and Brook Lopez had a whopping +18.4 Net Rating per 100 possessions when playing together — and they should see more time on the court now that we are in the postseason. Orlando ranked 19th in the regular season in Net Rating which is the lowest of all the teams in the playoffs — and they are missing significant pieces for this game. 10* NBA Tuesday Afternoon Tip-Off with the Milwaukee Bucks (762) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (761). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-17-20 |
Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 231 |
|
110-118 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (757) and the Los Angeles Clippers (758) in the opening game of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (43-32) enters the playoffs on a two-game losing streak after losing to Phoenix on Thursday by a 128-102 score as an 8-point underdog. Los Angeles (49-23) has won their last two games as well as four of their last five contests with their 107-102 win over Oklahoma City on Friday as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks are challenged on the defensive end of the court — but head coach Rick Carlisle will demand more from his team after allowing the Suns to make 55.1% of their shots. That was the worst defensive effort of their eight games inside the bubble. Dallas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. And the Mavericks have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. Furthermore, Dallas allowed all eight of their opponents inside the bubble to score at least 110 points — but they have then played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing at least 110 points in four straight contests. Los Angeles is an outstanding defensive team when fully engaged with all their best players. They will probably not have the services of Patrick Beverley for this game as he recovers from his calf injury but they will have Montrezl Harrell returning to the court after clearing the quarantine protocols. But with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, head coach Doc Rivers has two incredible safety valve options who can defend Luka Doncic. The Clippers have played 8 of their last 10 games in the playoffs Under the Total when favored — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, Los Angeles has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total on the road after winning three of their last four games — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games away from home after a narrow win by 6 points or less.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last met on August 6th in the bubble when the Clippers easily defeated the Mavericks by a 126-111 score. Dallas has then played 54 of their last 88 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a same-season loss under Carlisle. 10* NBA Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (757) and the Los Angeles Clippers (758). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-17-20 |
Nets v. Raptors -9.5 |
|
110-134 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (754) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (753). THE SITUATION: Toronto (53-19) has won four straight games after they upset Denver on Friday by a 117-109 score as a 3.5-point underdog. Brooklyn (35-37) saw their three-game winning streak in the bubble snapped on Thursday with their 134-133 loss to Portland as a 9.5-point favorite. While Toronto is the technical home team, this game is being played on a neutral court in the Orlando bubble.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS MINUS THE POINTS: Toronto should build off the momentum of playing quality basketball in the bubble despite not having much urgency to produce results. The Raptors had little to play for in their eight bubble games since they had the 2nd seed locked up for most of those games. Head coach Nick Nurse could rest his players and use the games as de-facto preseason contests. Yet they still won seven of their eight contests. The Raptors are an outstanding defensive team that led the twenty-two teams inside the bubble in Defensive Rating after being 2nd in that metric in the regular season. Their athleticism, length, and depth make them a difficult team to hit 3-pointers against — Toronto is 2nd in the NBA in opponent’s effective field goal percentage while leading the league in lowest opponent 3-point shooting accuracy. The Raptors are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, Toronto is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and the reigning NBA champions have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. The Nets scorched the nets on Thursday by making 55.2% of their shots which was their best shooting mark in their eight games in the bubble. Yet this remains an undermanned roster that entered the bubble without seven players from their March roster with the biggest absences being guard Kyrie Irving and Spencer Dinwiddie. Without the duo of Irving and Dinwiddie, the Nets lost -2.2 points per 100 possessions as compared to when they were on the court together while committing more turnovers and not getting to the free-throw line as much. This ragtag group is led by an emerging star in Caris Levert — but they are likely to meet a rude awakening when facing starting lineups of players who will actually be playing for most of the game while bringing playoff intensity to their defensive efforts. Brooklyn will be out yet another important piece in Jamal Crawford with the former Michigan man (and role model for Levert’s time in Ann Arbor?) being out for this game with a hamstring injury. The Nets may be rusty entering this game with the weekend layoff — they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with at least three days of rest. Furthermore, the Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight playoff games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Some bettors remain intrigued by the fact that Toronto has lost ten of their last thirteen opening games to a new series since 2012 while failing to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. Those were interesting team trends back in the DeMar DeRozan/Kyle Lowry era when coached by Dwane Casey. With Casey and DeRozan now out of town and Lowry a reigning NBA champion, I am no longer giving those trends much credence. 10* NBA Brooklyn-Toronto ESPN Special with the Toronto Raptors (754) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (753). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-15-20 |
Grizzlies +6.5 v. Blazers |
|
122-126 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (723) plus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (724) in the first game of the NBA Playoff 8th seed/9th seed play-in series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (34-39) snapped a two-game losing streak on Thursday to clinch the 9th seed in the Western Conference playoffs and the opportunity to participate in this unique play-in series with their 119-106 win over Milwaukee as a 3.5-point favorite. Portland (35-39) clinched the 8th seed on Thursday when they defeated Brooklyn by a 134-133 score as a 9.5-point favorite. To advance to the Round of 16 in the Western Conference playoffs (to face the Los Angeles Lakers), the Grizzlies must defeat the Trail Blazers twice. Portland (35-39) wins this series by winning either today or a potential second game tomorrow.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis won only two of their eight games inside the bubble but there were some extenuating circumstances. The Grizzlies lost their second-best player when Jaren Jackson Jr. suffered a season-ending knee injury. Memphis also endured what was one of the most challenging schedules in the bubble with seven of their opponents advancing to the playoffs in a format that looked imbalanced to help New Orleans with Zion Williamson advance to the playoffs for the potential television ratings. But with some time to adjust to life without Jackson and with their rising star in Ja Morant, don’t count out this well-coached Grizzlies team. Memphis has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. Portland is quickly receiving most of the betting action with it being alluring to back the incredible run that Damian Lillard is on carrying the Blazers to the playoffs. But don’t be surprised if Portland is emotionally flat in this game. Not only can they exhale after making their incredible run to qualify for the playoffs in the bubble but they have the luxury of having the potential second game on Sunday in their back pockets as a proverbial “do-over.” The Trail Blazers have been living on the edge winning their last three games by no more than 3 points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning two in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 130 points in their last game. Furthermore, Portland is just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games against teams with a losing record. The Trail Blazers always have issues on defense with Lillard and C.J. McCollum both smaller guards who tend to struggle to slow down taller backcourts. Trevor Ariza usually gets the assignment to cover bigger shooting guards but he is out the season with an injury. Portland had the 3rd lowest Defensive Rating in the bubble as they allowed 120.4 points per 100 possessions — and their opponents nailed an incredible 43.3% of their shots from downtown which was the 2nd worst opponents 3-point shooting percentage. The Trail Blazers are allowing 116.1 PPG this season — and the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 40 games against teams who allow at least 110 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: This is the Blazers’ ninth game since July 31st in their first game in the bubble — and this is also their eighth game in the last fourteen days which is a challenging load for a team playing with desperation in almost all those contests. Portland has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing their eighth or more games in the last fourteen days. These two teams played on that last day in July where the Trail Blazers needed overtime to win by a 140-135 score. Expect another close game. 10* NBA Memphis-Portland ABC-TV Special with the Memphis Grizzlies (723) plus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (724). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-07-20 |
Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 221.5 |
|
122-100 |
Loss |
-105 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (711) and the Toronto Raptors (712). THE SITUATION: Boston (45-230 enters this game coming off a 149-115 win over Brooklyn as an 8.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Toronto (49-18) has won seven straight games going back to before the stoppage of play after their 107-99 win over Orlando on Wednesday as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by at least 10 points — and they have also played 28 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a blowout victory by at least 30 points. Boston shot 56.8% from the field against the Nets in what was the best shooting effort in their four games inside the bubble. The Celtics lead all teams since the restart with a 121.9 points per 100 possession scoring average — but they were able to prop up their stats in two of their games against weak defensive teams in Portland and the Nets on Wednesday. They made only 40.7% of their shots in their opening game loss to Milwaukee. Moving forward, Boston has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog. Toronto has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Raptors nailed 48.7% of their shots against the Magic which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. But Toronto is just 20th of the twenty-two teams in the bubble by averaging 105.2 points per 100 possessions. The Raptors are dominating teams because of their commitment to defense. They are 2nd of the teams inside the bubble by holding their opponents to just 96.1 points per 100 possessions — and they have held two of their four opponents to below 100 points. Toronto has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Boston will be looking to avenge a 113-97 upset loss at home to Toronto back on December 28th. The Celtics have played 19 of their last 27 games on the road Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. 10* NBA Boston-Toronto TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (711) and the Toronto Raptors (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-11-20 |
Georgia +3 v. Ole Miss |
|
81-63 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (671) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (672) in the first round of the SEC tournament. THE SITUATION: Georgia (15-16) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 94-64 loss at LSU as an 8.5-point underdog last Thursday. Ole Miss (15-16) had their two-game winning streak end last Thursday with their 69-44 loss at Mississippi State as a 6-point underdog. The SEC tournament is being played on a neutral court at Bridgestone Arena which is home to the Nashville Predators in the NHL.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia played their second-worst defensive game of the season (and their worst in their last fourteen games) by allowing the Tigers to nail 57.6% of their shots. The Bulldogs are a young team with three freshmen in the starting lineup — so that humiliating loss should give head coach Tom Crean plenty of fodder to have his team ready to play in this game. Georgia has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after a loss by at least 20 points on the road. The Bulldogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least 30 points. And in their last 15 games after allowing at least 90 points in their last contest, Georgia has covered the point spread in 12 of these games. Led by a likely top-five pick in the NBA draft in June in Anthony Edwards, the Bulldogs do have talent. They led the SEC by making 52.8% of their shots inside the arc — and they have made a healthy 46.2% of their shots over their last five games (despite an underachieving 36.2% mark against LSU which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last seven games). Georgia has scored a healthy 77.4 PPG in those last five games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. Mississippi has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 50 points in their last game. The Rebels stay on the road where they are just 3-11 while making just 37.1% of their shots which results in only 60.6 PPG. Ole Miss is 13th in the SEC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia will be looking to avenge a 70-60 loss at Mississippi back on January 25th. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. Don’t be surprised if Georgia pulls the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 10* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Georgia Bulldogs (671) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-11-20 |
Georgia Southern v. Georgia State -4.5 |
Top |
81-62 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (668) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (667) in the Quarterfinals of the Sun Belt Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Georgia State (19-12) snapped their three-game losing streak back on March 3rd with their 89-70 win over Arkansas-Little Rock as a 3.5-point favorite. Georgia Southern (19-13) advanced to the Quarterfinals of this tournament with their 82-81 win over UL-Lafayette on Monday where they were 8.5-point favorites. Georgia State is the host school for the Sun Belt tournament with the games being played in the GSU Sports Center.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Eagles shot 53.3% from the field on Monday in that win which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. But they also made only 10 of their 20 free throws — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to make more than 53% of their free throws in their last contest. Missing freebies has been an Achilles’ heel for this team as they were last in the Sun Belt by making just 67% of their free throws — and they ranked 277th in the nation overall by hitting just 67.7% of their free throws the season. Georgia Southern may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of the rest 19 games after a win by 6 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less. Now this team goes back on the road after playing their last two games at home where they make only 43.0% of their field goal attempts — so missing free throws could hurt this team. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 19 road games as an underdog getting 6 points or less. Furthermore, Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in March. Additionally, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing their second game in three days. Georgia State should have a big advantage when it comes to energy with their eight days off — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with at last a week off between games. The Panthers’ style under first-year head coach Rob Lanier emphasizes launching plenty of 3s with their four-out attack while crashing the offensive glass and using pressure to force turnovers. Georgia State is 2nd in the Sun Belt by pulling down 35.8% of their missed shots — and they are also 2nd in the conference by forcing turnovers in 20.8% of their conference opponents. The Panthers took 41.2% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play — and they rank 13th in the nation by nailing 40.3% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. Georgia State is 12-2 at home with an average winning margin of +15.2 PPG — and they were led by a stingy defense that limited their guests to just 38.8% shooting which resulted in only 68.4 PPG. The Panthers are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 home games — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Georgia State should build off the momentum of their victory over the Trojans as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a win by at least 15 points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games in expected higher scoring games with the Total set in the 150s.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia State will be looking to avenge a 79-70 upset loss at home to Georgia Southern back on February 28th where they were 5-point favorites. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Tournament Game of the Year with the Georgia State Panthers (668) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (667). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-11-20 |
Florida Atlantic v. Old Dominion UNDER 132.5 |
Top |
66-56 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the opening round of the Conference USA tournament between the Florida Atlantic Owls (675) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (676). THE SITUATION: FAU (16-15) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 94-82 loss at Marshall as a 5.5-point favorite last Wednesday. Old Dominion (13-18) has lost three of their last five games with their 72-63 loss at UAB as a 2-point favorite on last Saturday. The Conference USA tournament is being played on a neutral court at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Owls allowed the Thundering Herd to nail 53.4% of their shots which was the second-worst defensive effort of their season (and worst over their last fourteen games). FAU has then played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Owls have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss against a conference rival. Now FAU stays on the road where they are making just 40.1% of their shots which is resulting in only 65.6 PPG. The Under is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games played on a neutral court — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games on a neutral court as an underdog. The Owls have also played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing their second game in eight days. And in their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3 point range, FAU has played 8 of these games Under the Total. Old Dominion allowed the Blazers to make 51.1% of their shots which was the highest field goal percentage in their last four games. The Monarchs did hold UAB to just four offensive rebounds in that contest — and they have then played 10 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total after not allowing more than 5 offensive rebounds in their last game. Old Dominion is 7th in the nation by limiting its opponents to rebounding just 21.7% of their missed shots. The Monarchs stay on the road where they are making only 39.6% of their shots which results in just 60.2 PPG. Old Dominion is 339th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 43.1% when playing away from home. The Monarchs have played 39 of their last 51 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have also played 21 of their last 26 games when playing on a neutral court as the favorite. Old Dominion has also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total in tournament action.
FINAL TAKE: The Monarchs are a strong defensive team that ranked 3rd in Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 57th in the nation Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. FAU has an effective field goal percentage of 46% when playing away from home which is just 279th in the country. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the opening round of the Conference USA tournament between the Florida Atlantic Owls (675) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (676). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-11-20 |
CS Sacramento -3.5 v. Weber State |
|
62-54 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Sacramento State Hornets (625) minus the points versus the Weber State Wildcats (626) in the first round of the Big Sky tournament. THE SITUATION: Sacramento State (15-14) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last six contests after their 76-72 loss at Portland State as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Weber State (12-19) has lost three of their last four games with their 78-69 loss at Eastern Washington as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS MINUS THE POINTS: Bettors are backing the Wildcats with the hope that they can flip the switch to find the form that was expected for this team that was one of the preseason favorites to win the regular-season crown. Instead, Weber State stumbled to an 8-12 conference record. Injuries played a role with this team underachieving — but head coach Randy Rahe’s team struggled on defense all season with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency ranking of 301st in the nation when playing away from home. Getting healthy has not changed that disappointing play as they rank 314th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency over their last ten games. The team trends that help to identify the personality of this team and program under Rahe do not offer evidence that this team can flip the switch. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after a point spread win. Weber State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. The Wildcats have particularly struggled on the road where they are just 4-13 with an average losing margin of -12.1 PPG. Weber State allows their opponents to make 48.5% of their shots away from home — and they are making only 42.4% of their shots in those games which results in just 61.8 PPG. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog played on a neutral court. Sacramento State made only 43.6% of their shots last Saturday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last six games. But the Hornets have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after losing two of their last three games. Sacramento State does a couple of things that will help them create extra scoring chances if their shots are not falling. The Hornets are 2nd in the Big Sky by pulling down 33.0% of their missed chances — and the Wildcats are just 10th in the conference by allowing their opponents to pull down 30.0% of their missed shots. The Hornets also lead the Big Sky by forcing turnovers in 21.6% of their possessions — and Weber State has turned the ball over in 18.9% of their possessions over their last ten games which is 130th in the country. Sacramento State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road against teams who are winning 20-40% of their games. The Hornets have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when favored on a neutral court. Furthermore, Sacramento State has covered the point spread in 12 of its last 17 games when favored. Additionally, the Hornets have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Sacramento State will also be looking to avenge a 70-66 loss to Weber State back on February 6th — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. 10* CBB Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Sacramento State Hornets (625) minus the points versus the Weber State Wildcats (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-10-20 |
Celtics -3 v. Pacers |
|
114-111 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (529) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (530). THE SITUATION: Boston (42-21) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests after their 105-104 upset loss to Oklahoma City on Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite. Indiana (39-25) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 112-109 upset win in Dallas on Sunday as a 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Brad Stevens will be looking for his team to get back to their winning ways after suffering two straight upset losses with that loss to the Thunder preceded by a 99-94 upset loss at home to Utah Jazz. Boston has responded to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after suffering an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. The Celtics go back on the road where they are 19-12 this season. Boston has covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as the favorite. The Celtics are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Indiana has covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Pacers return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games. Indiana has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Injuries have hit both these teams right now. Jaylen Brown is still out for the Celtics with his hamstring injury. The Pacers are without Jeremy Lamb and Malcolm Brogdon while Victor Oladipo and Doug McDermott are questionable and doubtful with injuries. Boston is looking to avenge a 122-117 loss at home to Indiana back on December 11th — and the Celtics have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games when playing with revenge. Boston has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. The Celtics are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last encounters with the Pacers. 10* NBA Road Warrior Wipeout with the Boston Celtics (529) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-10-20 |
Illinois-Chicago v. Northern Kentucky -4 |
Top |
62-71 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Northern Kentucky Norse (616) minus the points versus the Illinois-Chicago Flames (615) in the Finals of the Horizon League conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Northern Kentucky (22-9) has won three of their last four games after their 80-69 win over Wisconsin-Green Bay last night as a 5.5-point favorite. Illinois-Chicago (18-16) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 73-56 upset win over Wright State yesterday as a 6-point underdog. This game will be played on a neutral court at Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NORSE MINUS THE POINTS: Northern Kentucky should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after winning a least two of their last three games. The Norse have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when playing their second game in three days. Northern Kentucky won the Horizon League tournament last season under head coach John Brannen who then took the vacated job at Cincinnati in the offseason. The Norse also lost their best player in Drew McDonald. But the program landed a veteran head coach in Darrin Horn who has a decade of head coaching experience at Western Kentucky and South Carolina along with long tenures as an assistant at Marquette and Texas. Horn could have waited for a more high profile job in his return to head coaching but he liked the opportunity at Northern Kentucky. The cupboard was not empty when it comes to talent with guards Jalen Tate and Tyler Sharpe along with forward Dantez Walton back from last season. Injuries have kept this big three from playing together often this season with Tate and Walton missing ten games and eleven games respectively this season. When Tate went down early this season, Walton raised his level of play to lead this team with talk of him perhaps being the Horizon League’s best player before he went down with an injury. But this core is healthy again and have played together for the last seven games. Northern Kentucky has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court as a favorite. Illinois-Chicago held the Raiders to just 28.3% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. But the Flames have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 after not allowing their last opponent to shoot better than 33% from the field. Illinois-Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. The Flames are one of the hottest teams in basketball — and they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games (and five of their last seven). But Illinois-Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The Flames’ biggest weakness is being too loose with the basketball as they turn the ball over in 21.2% of their possessions when playing away from home which ranks 287th in the nation. The Norse have forced turnovers in 20.1% of their opponent’s possessions in their last ten games which is 81st best in the country over that span.
FINAL TAKE: Northern Kentucky will have the additional motivation tonight to avenge a 73-43 loss at home to Illinois-Chicago back on February 16th despite being a 10-point favorite in that game. 25* CBB Horizon League Conference Game of the Year with the Northern Kentucky Norse (616) minus the points versus the Illinois-Chicago Flames (615). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-10-20 |
Manhattan -2 v. Fairfield |
|
61-43 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Manhattan Jaspers (607) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (608) in the opening round of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Manhattan (12-17) has lost three straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests with their 66-50 upset loss at home to Fairfield as a 5-point favorite. Fairfield (12-19) snapped a four-game losing streak with the upset victory last week. The MAAC tournament takes place on a neutral court at Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JASPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Manhattan allowed the Stags to make 61.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them this season. The Jaspers also made only 29.8% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last twenty-three games along with their second-worst offensive performance all season. Manhattan has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not scoring more than 50 points in their last contest. And while the Jaspers trailed by a 34-17 score at halftime of that game, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after trailing by at least 15 points at halftime of their last game. Manhattan has also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 road games after losing six or seven of their last eight contests. This has been a better team in tournament play under head coach Steve Masiello. The Jaspers have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games in the MAAC tournament — and they have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games in an opening contest in a tournament. Additionally, Manhattan has covered the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as a favorite playing on a neutral court. Fairfield played their best offensive game of the season with that win over the Jaspers last week. And by holding Manhattan to just 29.8% shooting, they come off their best defensive contest in their last seven games with that being the third-lowest opponent’s field goal percentage for them this season. But the Stags have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing their last opponent to shoot better than 33% from the field. Fairfield has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after suffering an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a win over a conference rival. Additionally, the Stags are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Fairfield had failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: Despite enjoying their best shooting effort all season last Thursday against the Jaspers, the Stags are still only making 37.6% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in just 55.8 PPG. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Manhattan Jaspers (607) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (608). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-09-20 |
St. Mary's v. BYU -3.5 |
Top |
51-50 |
Loss |
-106 |
6 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (894) minus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (893) in the semifinals of the West Coast Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: BYU (24-7) takes the court again tonight having won nine straight games after their 81-64 victory at Pepperdine back on February 29th as a 6.5-point favorite. Saint Mary’s (24-7) advanced to the semifinals of this tournament with their 89-82 victory over Pepperdine in double-overtime on Saturday as a 7-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory over a conference rival where they scored at least 80 points. The Cougars are an outstanding shooting basketball team — they are 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while leading the nation by making 42.0% of their shots from behind the arc. BYU made 53.1% of their shots in their victory over the Waves. That was the third straight game where the Cougars shot at least 48.4% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after making at least 47% of their shots in three straight games. BYU has also scored at least 81 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 80 points in three straight games. The Cougars make 49.2% of their shots away from home which results in them scoring 77.1 PPG — and they lead the nation with a 42.4% shooting percentage from 3-point land when playing on the road. BYU also leads the West Coast Conference by forcing turnovers in 19.0% of their opponent’s possessions. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored. Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. And while the Gaels have played four straight games Over the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing at least three straight Overs. BYU has a field goal percentage of 50.4% — and Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 52 road games against teams who make at least 48% of their shots. The Gaels also allow their opponents to make 35.4% of their shots from behind the arc when they are playing away from home. Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games when playing on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. The Gaels have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games played on a neutral court as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Saint Mary’s will be looking to avenge an 81-79 loss at BYU back on February 1st — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Game of the Year with BYU Cougars (894) minus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (893). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-08-20 |
North Dakota +6 v. South Dakota |
Top |
74-71 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the North Dakota Fighting Hawks (863) plus the points versus the South Dakota Coyotes (864) in the Quarterfinals of the Summit League conference tournament. THE SITUATION: North Dakota (12-17) has lost their last two games after losing at South Dakota last Saturday by a 77-67 score as a 7.5-point favorite. South Dakota (20-11) snapped a three-game losing streak with that victory. This game is being played on a neutral court in Sioux Falls.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: North Dakota made only 5 of their 10 free throw attempts in that game which is uncharacteristic for this team that ranks 22nd in the nation by making 76.6% of their free throws this season. The Fighting Hawks have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to shoot better than 53% of their free throws in their last game. This is a good shooting basketball team that ranks 25th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 52.4% when playing away from home on neutral courts or hostile environments. North Dakota is led by an All-League performer in guard Marlon Stewart. This team usually plays its best basketball in tournament situations. The Fighting Hawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 tournament contests — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games in the Summit League conference tournament. Furthermore, North Dakota has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in March. Additionally, the Fighting Hawks are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games played on a neutral court — and they are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games on a neutral court as an underdog. South Dakota does nail 39.0% of their 3-pointers — but North Dakota has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who shoot at least 37% from 3-point land. The Coyotes shot 54.2% from the field in their victory last Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. But this South Dakota team shoots only 45.1% when playing any from home. While the Coyotes rank 9th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.8%, that number drops to a 51.6% clip when they are playing away from home arena. South Dakota has failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. The Coyotes win over the Fighting Hawks finished below the 155 point total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And in their last 7 games played with at least seven days of rest, South Dakota has failed to cover the point spread 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: The Coyotes swept the two regular-season games with North Dakota this season as they also defeated them on the road by an 82-68 score on February 8th. This is considered a semi-home game for South Dakota with it being played in Sioux Falls — but it is still 116 miles away from their home campus in Vermillion. Look for the Fighting Hawks give the Coyotes their biggest fight in this single-elimination contest. 25* CBB Summit League Game of the Year with the North Dakota Fighting Hawks (863) plus the points versus the South Dakota Coyotes (864). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-07-20 |
Murray State v. Belmont UNDER 141 |
Top |
75-76 |
Loss |
-107 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Ohio Valley Conference championship game between the Murray State Racers (751) and the Belmont Bruins (752). THE SITUATION: Murray State (23-8) reached the finals of this tournament with their 73-61 win over Austin Peay as a 1-point favorite yesterday. Belmont (25-7) joined them yesterday as they won their eleventh straight game with their 60-50 win over Eastern Kentucky as a 13.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral court in Evansville, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Racers have played 9 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Murray State is playing excellent defense right now after holding the Governors to just 39.3% shooting. The Racers have held their last five opponents to just 39.6% shooting from the field which has resulted in only 61.0 PPG. Moving forward, Murray State has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 12 games as an underdog, the Racers have played 9 of these games Under the Total. Furthermore, they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Belmont has played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a victory over a conference opponent. They also have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Bruins made only 33.8% of their shots in that game — but they held Eastern Kentucky to just 29.9% shooting to win the game handily. Belmont has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 60 points. The Bruins have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a defensive struggle between the top two defenses in the Ohio Valley Conference in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. Murray State has played 7 of their last 8 games after fifteen games into the season Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Belmont has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Ohio Valley Conference championship game between the Murray State Racers (751) and the Belmont Bruins (752). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-07-20 |
Utah State v. San Diego State UNDER 133 |
Top |
59-56 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Mountain West Conference tournament championship game between the Utah State Aggies (741) and the San Diego State Aztecs (742). THE SITUATION: Utah State (25-8) has won two straight games as well as eight of their last nine games with their 89-82 win over Wyoming as a 15-point favorite yesterday. San Diego State (30-1) has won their last four games after suffering their first loss of the season with their 81-68 win over Boise State yesterday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies outlasted the Cowboys by shooting 56.1% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last eleven games. Utah State has then played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road after a point spread win. The Aggies have also played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. And while yesterday’s game flew Over the 136 point Total, Utah State has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. San Diego State has played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 80 points. The Aztecs rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season. In their fifteen games away from home this year, San Diego State has held these opponents to just 39.9% shooting and only 60.9 PPG. The Aztecs have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total that were played on a neutral court. San Diego State has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in tournament action. And while Utah State makes 46.1% of their shots this season, the Aztecs have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams who shoot at least 455 from the field. The Aggies are outscoring their opponents by +12.7 PPG — but San Diego State has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Utah State hopes to avenge an 80-68 loss to San Diego State back on February 1st — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when motivated by revenge. The Aggies have also played 6 straight games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. Expect a lower scoring game between the top two defensive teams (in terms of Adjusted Efficiency) in the conference). 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Mountain West Conference tournament championship game between the Utah State Aggies (741) and the San Diego State Aztecs (742). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-07-20 |
Baylor +1.5 v. West Virginia |
|
64-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (613) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (614). THE SITUATION: Baylor (26-3) has won two of their last three games with their 71-68 win in overtime at home against Texas Tech on Monday as a 7-point favorite. West Virginia (20-10) had lost six of their last seven games before they defeated Iowa State on the road on Tuesday by a 77-71 score as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Baylor shot just 36.5% from the field on Monday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. But the Bears have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread win. They go back on the road this season where they are 12-2 with an average winning margin of +10.0 PPG. They hold their home hosts to just 41% shooting which has resulted in just 61.1 PPG. Baylor is 38-18-1 ATS in their last 59 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage of at least 60% on their home court. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road getting the points. Furthermore, Baylor has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. West Virginia made 44.3% of their shots on Tuesday in what was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. But the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in their last game. West Virginia returns home where they are 13-2 this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. The Mountaineers have lost two of their last three home games while scoring only 58.7 PPG on just 35.9% shooting. West Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: West Virginia will be looking to avenge a 70-59 loss at Baylor back on February 15th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when avenging a loss where they did not reach 60 points. 10* CBB Baylor-West Virginia ESPN Special with the Baylor Bears (613) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (614). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-07-20 |
Kentucky +3.5 v. Florida |
Top |
71-70 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (615) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (616). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (24-6) saw their eight-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 81-73 upset loss at home to Tennessee despite being an 8.5-point favorite. Florida (19-11) has won two of their last three games after their 68-54 win at Georgia as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Kentucky allowed the Volunteers to make 52.8% of their shots which was not only the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage for them all season but also the worst defensive performance in their last twenty games. The Wildcats should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They also have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three games. Now Kentucky goes back on the road where they are 8-4 this season. The deeper analytics rank the Wildcats as the 6th best road team in the nation when looking at Adjusted Net Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Wildcats have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a win on the road against an SEC rival. The Gators have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after allowing no more than 60 points in their last contest. And while Florida has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Gators return home where they are 11-3 this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games on their home court. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 18 home games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: The Gators are looking to avenge a 65-59 loss at Kentucky back on February 22nd — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 25* CBB SEC Underdog of the Year with the Kentucky Wildcats (615) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (616). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-20 |
VCU v. Davidson UNDER 137 |
Top |
65-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Virginia Commonwealth Rams (861) and the Davidson Wildcats (862). THE SITUATION: VCU (18-12) has lost six of their last seven games with their 80-77 loss at home to Duquesne on Wednesday as a 5.5-point favorite. Davidson (15-14) has lost their last two contests after their 80-63 loss at Richmond on Wednesday as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: VCU has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread setback. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored
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03-06-20 |
Heat v. Pelicans -1 |
|
104-110 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (552) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (551). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (26-36) has lost three straight games with their 127-123 loss at Dallas as a 6-point underdog on Wednesday. Miami (40-22) has won four straight games after they defeated Orlando at home by a 116-113 score on Wednesday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS THE POINTS: Miami broke a franchise record against the Magic by making 22 shots from behind the arc. While the Heat made 50% of their 3-pointers to eke out that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 road games after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. Miami is also just 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a straight-up win. Now after playing their last five games at home, the Heat go back on the road where they are just 13-18 this season. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Defense has been an issue for this team as of late as they have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.4% of their shots which has resulted in them scoring 112.4 PPG. New Orleans has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss. The Pelicans have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. That game was Zion Williamson’s first professional game where he was playing the second half of games on back-to-back days. New Orleans did cover the point spread in that game — and they are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a point spread win.
FINAL TAKE: The Heat are not as well equipped to thrive in higher-scoring games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games after a game where at least 225 combined points were scored. The Pelicans average 92 shots per game while surrendering 117.4 PPG. But Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games against teams who allow at least 110 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road against teams who average at least 88 shots per game. 10* NBA Miami-New Orleans ESPN Special with the New Orleans Pelicans (552) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-20 |
Yale -6.5 v. Dartmouth |
|
72-61 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Yale Bulldogs (849) minus the points versus the Dartmouth Big Green (850). THE SITUATION: Yale (22-6) has won four straight games with their 66-63 win over Princeton last Saturday as an 8-point favorite. Dartmouth (12-15) has won five of their last six games with their 76-57 win at Columbia last Saturday as a 2-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Yale has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games on the road after a straight-up victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. And while the Bulldogs have only covered the point spread once in their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games on the road after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They go back on the road where they are 12-5 this season while holding their home hosts to just 39.1% shooting which results in only 65.5 PPG. Yale has covered the point spread in 15 of the last 20 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 45 of their last 57 road games when favored. Yale is a great shooting basketball team that ranks 20th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 51.1%. And while the Big Green hold their opponents to just 41.8% shooting from the field, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams who do not allow their opponents to make more than 42% of their shots. Dartmouth played their second-best defensive game of the season last week by holding Columbia to just 33.3% shooting. But they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread win. The Big Green returns home after playing their last two games on the road but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after playing their last two games on the road. Furthermore, Dartmouth has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Dartmouth looks to avenge a 75-57 loss at Yale back on February 8th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 51 of their last 78 games at home when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Yale Bulldogs (849) minus the points versus the Dartmouth Big Green (850). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-20 |
Georgia Tech v. Clemson -4 |
Top |
65-62 |
Loss |
-108 |
17 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (854) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (853). THE SITUATION: Clemson (15-14) has lost two of their last three games with their 70-58 loss at Virginia Tech as a 1.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Georgia Tech (16-14) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 73-57 win over Pittsburgh on Wednesday as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Clemson looks to bounce-back from one of their worst games of the season against the Hokies. They made only 35.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. They also allowed Virginia Tech to make 54.2% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed all season. The Tigers allowed Florida State to make 50% of their shots in their previous game — but they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 home games after allowing two straight opponents to shoot at least 50% of their shots. Head coach Brad Brownell’s team has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with one or no days of rest. They return home where they are 11-5 this season with an average winning margin of +8.3 PPG. The Tigers play the 32nd stingiest defense in the nation when playing at home according to their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — they limit their guests to just 40.4% shooting which translates into only 62.6 PPG. Clemson should shoot better tonight — they have still made 47.9% of their shots over their last five games even after the difficult shooting effort against the Hokies. Clemson takes tons of 3s — but they do lead the ACC by making 53.2% of their shots inside the arc. Their efficiency inside the arc improves at home as they are making 56.5% of their 2-point shots which is the 26th best mark in the nation. Georgia Tech does hold their opponents to just 40.2% shooting — but the Tigers have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after fifteen games into the season when facing a team that does not allow their opponents to shoot better from 42% from the field. And while the Yellow Jackets shoot 45.3% from the field, Clemson has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who make at least 45% of their shots. Georgia Tech may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by at least 15 points. They made 49.1% of their shots in what was the best shooting effort in their last four games. They also held the Panthers to 30.9% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last fourteen games. But this will be the Yellow Jackets third game since Saturday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing their third game in seven days. Additionally, Georgia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two straight games against conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least three in a row against ACC foes. The Yellow Jackets go back on the road where they are 6-8 this season. Georgia Tech has covered the point spread in five of their last six games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 road games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Jackets have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 road games with the Total set in the 130 to 134.5 point range. Georgia Tech has two weaknesses that undermine the tough defense they play for head coach Josh Pastner. The Yellow Jackets foul too much to give their opponents freebies at the charity stripe — especially on the road. Georgia Tech ranks 315th in the nation with an opponent’s Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 44.4% when playing away from home. The Yellow Jackets also turn the ball over in 22.8% of their possessions which is 342nd in the nation — and Clemson forces turnovers in 19.9% of their opponent’s possessions which is a solid 105th best in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: Clemson will have revenge on their minds as well for this game after losing to Georgia Tech in Atlanta by a 68-59 score back on February 25th. Not only have the Tigers covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities to play with revenge but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when looking to avenge a loss where they did not score at least 60 points. 25* CBB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Clemson Tigers (854) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (853). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-20 |
New Mexico v. Utah State -11.5 |
|
70-75 |
Loss |
-108 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Utah State Aggies (704) minus the points versus the New Mexico Lobos (703) in the Quarterfinals of the Mountain West Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Utah State (23-8) saw their six-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 66-64 upset loss in Albuquerque at New Mexico where they were 8-point favorites. New Mexico (19-13) has won two straight games after their 79-66 victory over San Jose State in the opening round of this tournament yesterday. This tournament is being played on a neutral court in the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah State allowed the Lobos to make 44.8% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. They should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss on the road as a favorite laying at least 8 points. Utah State has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. And while the Aggies have played their last two games Under the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing their last two games Under the Total. Utah State has made 48.0% of their shots over their last five games which has resulted in them scoring 76.4 PPG. They also have held their last five opponents to just 39.6% shooting which has produced only 62.2 PPG. This has also been a winning team away from home with their 8-7 record in road games and games played on a neutral court. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as the favorite. New Mexico made 47.5% of their shots yesterday which was theist shooting effort in their last seven games. But the Lobos have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a win by at least 10 points. New Mexico has also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a point spread victory. The Lobos were 15-3 when playing at home in the Pit — but they are just 4-10 when playing on the road or neutral courts. New Mexico has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court as an underdog. The Lobos has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as a dog. Furthermore, New Mexico has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better.
FINAL TAKE: Utah State should control the offensive glass tonight as they look to avenge their loss to end the regular season. The Aggies rank 2nd in the Mountain West Conference by pulling down 30.2% of their missed shots — and the Lobos allow their conference opponents to rebound 31.5% of their misses which is 11th in conference. 10* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Utah State Aggies (704) minus the points versus the New Mexico Lobos (703). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-05-20 |
UMKC v. Utah Valley OVER 136 |
Top |
61-51 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Missouri-Kansas City Kangaroos (679) and the Utah Valley State Wolverines (680). THE SITUATION: UMKC (15-14) has won three games in a row with their 80-58 win over Chicago State last Saturday as a 20-point favorite. Utah Valley State (11-18) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday in a 73-66 loss at Cal-Baptist where they were 6-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 24 of their last 33 road games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Kangaroos have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. UMKC is hot with its shooting right now as they are making 48.5% of their shots over their last five contests. Now they go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total. The Kangaroos have also played 8 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog. Utah Valley State made only 43.9% of their shots last week in their loss to Cal-Baptist — that was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. The Wolverines have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. And while Utah Valley State has lost five of their last seven games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. Over their last five games, they are still making 49.8% of their shots which has resulted in them averaging 76.8 PPG. They have also allowed 75.0 PPG over those last five games. They return home where they are scoring 74.9 PPG while allowing their opponents to average 70.4 PPG. Hosting this Kangaroos team will help their shooting as UMKC is 285th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.8% when they are playing on the road. Utah Valley State has played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Wolverines have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as a favorite or pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Utah Valley State makes only 30.3% of their shots from behind the arc — but the Kangaroos have played 14 of their last 17 games Ove the Total against opponents who do not shoot better than 31% from behind the 3-point line. 25* CBB Western Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Missouri-Kansas City Kangaroos (679) and the Utah Valley State Wolverines (680). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-20 |
Illinois State v. Drake -4.5 |
Top |
65-75 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Drake Bulldogs (712) minus the points versus the Illinois State Redbirds (711) in the first round of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Drake (18-13) has lost three straight games after their 70-43 loss at home to Northern Iowa as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Illinois State (10-20) has won two of their last three games with their 71-60 upset win at Evansville as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. The Missouri Valley Conference tournament is played on a neutral court at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Drake made only 30.2% of their shots which was the lowest shooting mark in their last twenty games. The Bulldogs made only 3 of their 21 shots from behind the arc (14.3%) in their loss to the Panthers — but the have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road after a game where they did not make at least 20% of their 3-point attempts. Drake should shoot better tonight as they have made 36.3% of their shots from downtown in their last ten games away from home in games played on neutral courts and true road games. The Bulldogs should respond with a strong effort as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a double-digit loss which includes them covering the point spread in those last four opportunities. Drake has been a reliable team when playing on neutral courts as well as they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games on a neutral court — and they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games played on a neutral court when favored. Illinois State played their best defensive game of the season against the Purple Aces by holding them to just 32.8% shooting. But the Redbirds are only 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. They stay on the road where they are just 1-14 this season with an average losing margin of -10.4 PPG. Illinois State allows their opponents to make 47.2% of their shots when playing away from home which results in them scoring 75.5 PPG. They also make just 42.2% of their shots in those fifteen games away from Normal. The Redbirds have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral court. Illinois State is also just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games when playing as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Drake will be looking to avenge a 57-53 upset loss at Illinois State where they were 1.5-point underdogs back on February 22nd. The Bulldogs play sound fundamental basketball as they made 52.9% of their shots inside the arc which is 2nd best in the MVC. They also hold their opponents to just 46.0% shooting inside the arc which is 2nd best in the Missouri Valley Conference. Illinois State may struggle to score as they make only 45.9% of their shots inside the arc which is 10th in the conference. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year with the Drake Bulldogs (712) minus the points versus the Illinois State Redbirds (711). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-04-20 |
Georgetown v. Creighton -12.5 |
Top |
76-91 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Creighton Bluejays (778) minus the points versus the Georgetown Hoyas (777). THE SITUATION: Creighton (22-7) saw their five-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 91-71 upset loss at St. John’s as a 5.5-point favorite. Georgetown (15-14) has lost four games in a row after their 66-63 loss at home against Xavier as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUEJAYS MINUS THE POINTS: Creighton played one of their worst games of the season after perhaps enjoying their most positive stint of the year during their previous five-game run. The Bluejays allowed the Red Storm to make 55% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last twenty-three games. They also made only 37.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. But Creighton has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 15 points. The Bluejays have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread defeat. Creighton has still won nine of their last eleven games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning at least six or seven of their last eight games. The Bluejays return home where they are 16-1 this season with an average winning margin of +15.7 PPG. Creighton holds their opponents to just 39.7% shooting from the field — and they also make 49.5% of their shots at home which translates into 83.1 PPG. The Bluejays have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on their home court with four victories all by at least 11 points. Creighton has also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 home games against teams who do not have a winning percentage better than 40% on the road. Additionally, the Bluejays have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 150 to 154.5 point range. This team ranks 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency according to KenPom — and the analytics also say they have the best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home. Creighton has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games as a favorite in the 6.5 to 12 point range — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. Georgetown has been reduced to an eight-man rotation after four programs left the program in December. Head coach Patrick Ewing’s team will be furthered shorthanded tonight with Omer Yertseven and Mac McClung both doubtful with ankle and foot injuries. Those two players are the Hoyas’ top two possession and shot takers on the team — so their potential loss is devastating. As it is, Georgetown has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They are making only 41% of their shots over their last five games which have resulted in them scoring only 67.8 PPG. Now they go back on the road where they are just 4-6 — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road. This team struggles in defending the perimeter as they rank 302nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 35.9% of their shots from behind the arc — and they allow their home hosts to nail 37.5% of their shots from 3-point land which is 298th in the nation. Creighton is 5th in the nation by making 42.1% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. The Hoyas have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Furthermore, Georgetown has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Creighton will be motivated to avenge an 83-80 loss at Georgetown back on January 15th. The Bluejays have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games when avenging a narrow loss by 3 points or less. 25* CBB Big East Game of the Year with the Creighton Bluejays (778) minus the points versus the Georgetown Hoyas (777). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-04-20 |
Niagara v. Siena -10.5 |
|
55-77 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Siena Saints (770) minus the points versus the Niagara Purple Eagles (769). THE SITUATION: Siena (17-10) has won seven straight games after their 52-50 win at Marist on Friday as a 6-point favorite. Niagara (11-18) has won two straight games as well as four of their last six contests with their 100-91 overtime victory over Iona as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: Siena has played their last three games on the road where they were favored — and they have covered the point spread in their last 3 games after playing their last three games on the road where they were laying the points. They return home where they are a perfect 13-0 with an average winning margin of +10.2 PPG. The Saints are making 47.4% of their shots at home which is resulting in them scoring 73.8 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when laying the points. Siena has also covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% on the road. Niagara made a shot a season-high 58.7% from the field on Saturday in their overtime win over the Gaels. The Purple Eagles made 15 of their 25 shots from behind the arc in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after making at least thirteen 3-pointers in their last game. Niagara has also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a game where they made at least 55% of their shots. Furthermore, the Purple Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where they scored at least 100 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a game where they at least 155 combined points were scored. They go back on the road where they are just 2-15 with an average losing margin of -12.9 PPG. Niagara allows their home hosts to shoot 47.6% of their shots which results in them scoring 75.4 PPG. The Purple Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Niagara’s upset win over Iona came on the heels of them upsetting St. Peter’s at home by a 63-54 scorer as a 5-point underdog. But the Purple Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in March. 10* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Siena Saints (770) minus the points versus the Niagara Purple Eagles (769). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-04-20 |
Texas-San Antonio v. Old Dominion OVER 143 |
Top |
59-84 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (801) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (802). THE SITUATION: UTSA (13-16) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 66-59 victory over UAB as a 3-point favorite. Old Dominion (12-17) also ended their two-game losing streak when they defeated Florida Atlantic on Sunday by an 85-80 score as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: UTSA has played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a victory at home against a conference rival. The Roadrunners have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, UTSA has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Toal after holding their last opponent to no more than 60 points — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Roadrunners held the Blazers to just 36.1% shooting — but now they go back on the road where they allow their home hosts to make 46.5% of their shots which results in them scoring 82.9 PPG. Defense is an issue for this team as they rank 290th in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency along with just 11th in conference play. UTSA has played 7 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Roadrunners have played 11 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. UTSA is a solid offensive team that scores 77.8 PPG while averaging 65 shots per game along with 10 made 3-pointers per contest. Old Dominion has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who score at least 77 PPG. The Monarchs have all played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who average at least 62 shots per game — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who make at least 8 shots from behind the arc per game. Old Dominion committed only eight personal fouls in their win over the Owls on Sunday with FAU getting whistled for 19 personal fouls — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after being called for at least 10 personal fouls than their opponent in their last game. The Monarchs have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games against Conference USA foes. Now this team stays at home where they are 9-4 this season. Old Dominion has played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% on the road. The Monarchs have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams who are winning 40-49% of their games this season.
FINAL TAKE: Old Dominion will be looking to avenge an 85-81 loss at home to UTSA back on February 6th — and the Monarchs have played 18 of their last 21 home games when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (801) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (802). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-04-20 |
Xavier v. Providence UNDER 133 |
|
74-80 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Xavier Musketeers (741) and the Providence Friars (742). THE SITUATION: Xavier (19-10) has won two straight games as well as six of their last eight contests with their 66-63 upset win at Georgetown as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Providence (17-12) has won their last four games with their 58-54 win at Villanova as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 5-0-1 in the Musketeers last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory over a Big East rival. Xavier has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win where they did not cover the point spread. The Musketeers stay on the road where they are limiting their opponents to just 39.4% shooting from the field which results in them giving up only 68.1 PPG by their home hosts. Xavier also makes 43.7% of their shots away from home which is producing just 69.2 PPG. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Musketeers’ last 6 games on the road — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Xavier has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to 6 points. Providence has paled 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset against a conference foe as an underdog getting at least 6 points — and this includes them playing five straight Unders in that situation. The Friars have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now this team returns home where they are 11-3 while holding their guests to just 39.1% shooting which results in these visitors scoring only 62.0 PPG. Providence ranks 13th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. The Friars have played 21 of their last 28 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They also have played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when playing just their second game in seven days. Additionally, Providence has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 6 points. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Friars have played 5 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Providence will be looking to avenge a 64-58 loss at Xavier back on February 8th — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 10* CBB Xavier-Providence FS1-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Xavier Musketeers (741) and the Providence Friars (742). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-03-20 |
Purdue v. Iowa -5 |
Top |
77-68 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (648) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (647). THE SITUATION: Iowa (20-9) has won three of their last four games with their 77-68 victory at home against Penn State as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (15-14) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 57-49 win at against Indiana where they were 6.5-point favorites on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa should build off their momentum as they are 7-3-3 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they are 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread victory. The Hawkeyes stay at home where they are 14-1 this season with an average winning margin of +14.2 PPG. Iowa makes 47% of their shots on their home court which has resulted in them scoring 81.7 PPG. The Hawkeyes are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Additionally, Iowa is 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 home games when favored — and they are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Hawkeyes rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. And while the Boilermakers launch 21 shots from behind the arc this season, Iowa has covered the point spread in 8 straight home games who take at least 21 shots from 3-point land per game. Purdue played their best defensive game of the season last week by limiting the Hoosiers to just 25.4% shooting from the field. But the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on the road after a victory at home against a Big Ten rival. Purdue has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. And while the Boilermakers are 14-4 at home this season, they are just 4-10 when playing on the road. They are making just 37.4% of their shots on the road which has resulted in only 60.0 PPG. Purdue makes only 28.1% of their 3-pointers and just 43.1% of their shots inside the arc on the road which ranks 318th and 335th in the nation. Their 42.8% effective field goal percentage on the road is just 338th in the country. These struggles with shooting the basketball have contributed to the Boilermakers going just 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 road games — and they are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on their home court. Purdue has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. The Boilermakers defeated Indiana despite them making only 37.5% of their shots. Purdue has a low 39.7% field goal percentage over their last five games — it will be difficult to keep up with this Iowa team that is highly efficient on offense.
FINAL TAKE: Iowa will be looking to avenge a brutal 104-68 loss at Purdue back on February 5th. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (648) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (647). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-03-20 |
Nets v. Celtics -6 |
Top |
129-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (504) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (503). THE SITUATION: Boston (41-18) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 111-110 upset loss at home to Houston as a 2-point favorite. Brooklyn (26-33) has lost their last four games after their 116-113 loss at Miami on Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston made only 39% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last twenty-five games. The Celtics should respond with a strong effort as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. Boston has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread defeat. They stay at home where they are 23-6 this season with an average winning margin of +9.6 PPG. The Celtics should shoot better tonight as they are making 47.3% of their shots on their home court which is resulting in 116.6 PPG. Boston has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Celtics may be undermined tonight with a flu bug hitting the locker room — Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart are listed as questionable after missing practice yesterday. But Boston will get Kemba Walker back after he missed the last five games with a knee injury. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. Boston has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as the favorite. Brooklyn may be without Garrett Temple who is questionable with a shoulder injury — and they will be without Kyrie Irving for the rest of the season with his shoulder injury. The Nets stay on the road where they are 10-20 with an average losing margin of -3.6 PPG. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games as an underdog. The Nets have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when facing an opponent that is winning at least 60% of their games. And in their last 13 games against fellow Atlantic Division opponents, Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread 9 times.
FINAL TAKE: Boston will also be motivated to avenge a 112-107 upset loss at Brooklyn back on November 29th. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge against their opponents. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (504) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-03-20 |
Arkansas State +7.5 v. Georgia Southern |
|
76-75 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (605) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (606). THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (15-15) has lost eight straight games after their 77-74 loss at UL-Lafayette as a 3-point underdog last Wednesday. Georgia Southern (18-12) has won their last two games with their 79-70 upset win at Georgia State last Friday as a 5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED WOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: The Red Wolves made only 3 of their 15 shots from behind the arc against Ragin’ Cajuns last week for a low 20% shooting percentage from 3-point land — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to shoot better than 20% from downtown in their last game. Arkansas State makes 39.7% of their 3-pointers when playing on the road which is the 8th best mark in the nation — so they should shoot better from 3-point land tonight. The Red Wolves also do a great job of drawing fouls as they lead the nation with a 49.3% Free-Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio. They should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a point spread loss. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Georgia Southern may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset win — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a win on the road. Now after playing their last three games on the road, the Eagles return home where they are 10-3 this season. But Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last three games on the road. But the analytics indicate that the Eagles do not play their best basketball on their home court. Georgia Southern ranks 146th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency with a 194th in the nation mark on offense and a 108th national clip on defense — but the Eagles rank 223rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 121st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on their home court. Their Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home drops to a 159th ranking. The Eagles have covered the point spread in their last two games while winning five of their last seven games. But Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning four or five of their last six games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Arkansas State tends to overachieve against the best teams on their schedule. The Red Wolves have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games ass an underdog. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Arkansas State Red Wolves (605) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (606). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-02-20 |
Idaho State v. Weber State OVER 145 |
Top |
78-70 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (865) and the Weber State Wildcats (866). THE SITUATION: Idaho State (6-20) has lost twelve straight games after their 89-76 loss at home to Portland State as a 4-point underdog last Thursday. Weber State (11-17) has lost three of their last four games after their 89-83 upset loss to Portland State as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by double-digits. Idaho State has also played 7 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bengals have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after losing at least two in a row — and they have played 18 of their last 22 games Over the Total after losing at least fifteen of their last twenty games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to nail 50.7% of their shots which has produced 74.5 PPG. Idaho State has played 6 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 19 of their last 26 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Bengals have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog. Weber State has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and this includes them playing four straight Overs after a victory. Furthermore, the Wildcats have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. Weber State stays at home where they are scoring 80.8 PPG on 49.4% shooting from the field. The Wildcats have played 5 straight home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% on the road. Furthermore, the Over is 10-4-1 in Weber State’s last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% overall.
FINAL TAKE: Idaho State is just 318th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 347th in the country by allowing their opponents to make 56.0% of their shots inside the arc. The Bengals have a defensive field goal percentage of 48.3% — and the Wildcats have played 15 of their last 20 home games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45% or higher. Weber State is 3rd in the Big Sky Conference with a 53.3% of their shots inside the arc — they should score plenty of 2-pointers against this Idaho State team. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (865) and the Weber State Wildcats (866). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-01-20 |
Lakers v. Pelicans +1.5 |
|
122-114 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (514) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Lakers (513). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (26-33) has won three of their last four games since the All-Star break with their 116-104 win against Cleveland on Friday as a 13-point favorite. Los Angeles (45-13) had their seven-game winning streak snapped last night with their 105-88 upset loss in Memphis despite being an 11-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lakers have not been good in bounce-back situation as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss on the road. They stay on the road for the third time since Thursday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games when playing their third road game (even) in five days. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after playing their last two games on the road. Additionally, the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games against teams with a losing record at home. New Orleans is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a straight-up win. They clicking with Zion Williamson finally getting on the floor for this team. They are making 49.8% of their shots over their last five games which has resulted in 117.2 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They also are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans will be without J.J. Reddick who is dealing with a hamstring injury but the Lakers may not have Danny Green who is questionable with a hip issue. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to the Big Easy to face the Pelicans. 10* NBA LA Lakers-New Orleans ESPN Special with the New Orleans Pelicans (514) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Lakers (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-29-20 |
Rockets v. Celtics +1.5 |
|
111-110 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (558) minus the points versus the Houston Rockets (557). THE SITUATION: Boston (41-17) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 114-103 upset win in Utah as a 5-point underdog on Wednesday. Houston (38-20) has won five straight games with their 140-112 win at home against a reeling Memphis team on Wednesday as a 12-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in five of their last six games after winning their last game by at least 10 points. Now after playing their last four games on the road, the Celtics return home where they are 23-5 with an average winning margin of +9.9 PPG. Boston has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Boston should fare well in this contest. The Rockets average 91 shots per game in their up-tempo small-ball offense while taking 44 shots from behind the arc per game while making 16 of these 3-pointers per contest. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 88 shots per game. Boston has also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams who make at least 6 shots from downtown per game. Houston nailed 55.9% of their shots against an injury-riddled Grizzlies team playing without Jaren Jackson, Jr. and Brandon Clarke for the next few weeks. That was the Rockets’ best shooting mark in their last twenty-nine games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. Houston also held that Grizzlies team to just a 39.8% field goal percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last twenty games. The Rockets may be due for a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a double-digit win at home. They also are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games after a game where they scored at least 125 points. Houston has scored at least 113 pints in six straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after scoring at least 110 points in four straight contests. The Rockets force 15 turnovers per game as they use pressure to compensate for their lack of rebounding given their small lineups. But Boston only turns the ball over 13 times per game — and Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who do not turn the ball over more than 14 times per game.
FINAL TAKE: Boston will be looking to avenge a 116-105 loss at Houston back on February 11th — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when playing with revenge. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. 10* NBA Houston-Boston ABC-TV Special with the Boston Celtics (558) minus the points versus the Houston Rockets (557). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-29-20 |
Magic v. Spurs OVER 221 |
Top |
113-114 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 36 m |
Show
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At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (559) and the San Antonio Spurs (560). THE SITUATION: Orlando (23-32) has won three straight games with their 136-125 win over Minnesota last night as an 8-point favorite. San Antonio (24-33) has lost their last two games with their 109-103 loss at home to Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 7-0-1 in the Magic’s last 8 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is also 7-0-1 in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Orlando has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 125 points in their last five games. Head coach Steve Clifford has found a five-man combination that is finally jumpstarting what had been a stagnant offense. Markelle Fultz, Terrence Ross, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Vucevic entered the week averaging 110.1 points per 100 possessions in the 177 minutes they have played together. In the three games the Magic have played since, Orlando has averaged 127 PPG while making 49.4%, 49.0% and then 54.1% of their shots. But the problem for that grouping is their defense as they had allowed their opponents to score at an 111.8 points per 100 possession clip in those 177 minutes entering last Monday’s game. The Magic have allowed their last three opponents to average 119.3 PPG with a field goal percentage of 47.0%. All three games this week finished Over the Total — and Orlando has played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. In their last five games, the Magic are scoring 120.6 PPG on 47.4% shooting — and they are surrendering 118.1 PPG on 47.1% shooting. Now they go back on the road where the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games — and the Over is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games as an underdog. Additionally, while this is Orlando’s sixth game in the last two weeks, they have played 15 of their last 19 road games Over the Total when playing no more than their sixth game in fourteen days. San Antonio held the Mavericks to just a 41.9% shooting percentage on Wednesday in that loss which was the best defensive effort in their last twelve games. The Over is 6-1-1 in the Spurs’ last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, San Antonio has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. And while San Antonio has lost and failed to cover the point spread in their last two contests, they have then played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after suffering two straight losses — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. The Spurs defensive effort on Wednesday was a surprise because they have still allowed their last five opponents to make 48.8% of their shots which has resulted in 115.4 PPG. They stay at home for this game where they are scoring 113.3 PPG on 46.6% shooting while allowing their guests to score 112.4 PPG. San Antonio has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 20 home games Over the Total as a favorite. The Spurs have also played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while San Antonio has launched at least 91 shots in three straight games, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after taking at least 90 shots in two straight contests.
FINAL TAKE: Orlando averages 89 shots per game this season (while taking at least 89 shots in seven straight contests) — and the Spurs have played 24 of their last 36 games Over the Total against teams that average at least 88 shots per game. The Spurs allow 114.5 PPG this season — and the Magic have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow at least 110 PPG. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (559) and the San Antonio Spurs (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-29-20 |
Michigan State v. Maryland UNDER 138 |
Top |
78-66 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (705) and the Maryland Terrapins (706). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (19-9) has won two straight games with their 78-70 win at home over Iowa as a 9.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Maryland (23-5) has won ten of their last eleven contests with their 74-73 win at Minnesota as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spartans have seen the Under go a decisive 39-16-3 in their last 58 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a victory over a Big Ten rival. Michigan State has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Now Sparty goes back on the road where they are just 8-6 this season while making only 43.6% of their shots which is translating into just 70.2 PPG. Michigan State sees their effective field goal percentage of 53.9% drop to a 50.3% mark when they are playing away from their home at the Breslin Center in East Lansing — that ranks 91st in the nation. But the Spartans’ outstanding defense does travel as they hold their home hosts to just 38.7% shooting which results in only 67.6 PPG. The Under is 14-6-1 in their last 21 games on the road — and the Under is also 18-7-1 in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Under is 22-8-1 in Michigan State’s last 31 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, in the Spartans’ last 13 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, Michigan State has seen 11 of these games finish Under the Total. Maryland allowed the Golden Gophers to make 45.6% of their shots on Wednesday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last eight contests. The Terrapins have a bad habit of starting slowly which requires them to dig themselves out of big holes — they had to rally from a 16-point halftime deficit to defeat Minnesota. The Terrapins average only 33.4 points in the first half this season with that number dropping to 31.8 points in the first 20 minutes in conference games. They are making only 43% of their shots at home with an effective field goal percentage of 49.1% which ranks 243rd in the nation. Overall, their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the season ranks 35th in the nation — but that number plummets to 73rd in the country when they are playing on their home court in College Park. But Maryland holds their guests to just 36.7% shooting which results in a mere 59.8 PPG when they are playing at home. The Terrapins have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s. Maryland has also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These are two of the best defensive teams in the nation with the Spartans and Terrapins ranking 13th and 12th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency respectively. Maryland holds their opponents to just 39.1% shooting — and Sparty has played 8 straight games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or less. And while Michigan State out-rebounds their opponents by +7.6 RPG, the Terrapins have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against opponents who out-rebound their opponents by at least +7.0 RPG. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (705) and the Maryland Terrapins (706). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-28-20 |
Nuggets v. Clippers -5.5 |
|
103-132 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 11 m |
Show
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At 10:35 pM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (546) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (545). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (39-19) has won their last two games with their 102-92 win at Phoenix on Wednesday as a 7.5-point favorite. Denver (40-18) has won two straight games as well as six of their last eight contests with their 115-98 victory at home against Detroit as a 13.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Nuggets are likely due for a letdown in this contest. They limited the hapless Pistons to just 40.7% shooting from the field which was the best defense mark in their last seven games. But Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 36 road games after a point spread win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road after a double-digit win at home. Additionally, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after winning at least two games in a row. And in their last 30 road games after a game where they scored at least 115 points, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of these contests. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games when playing with one day of rest. And while this will be just their fifth game in the last fourteen days, they have covered the point spread in 123 of their last 16 games when playing no more than their fifth game in the last two weeks. They return home where they are 23-6 this season with an average winning margin of +9.1 PPG. Both teams will be at full strength for this game after a bevy of injuries has impacted both rosters. And while the Nuggets shoot 46.9% from the field, the Clippers have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 contests against teams who make at least 46% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles will be looking to avenge a 114-104 loss to Denver back on January 12th. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. 10* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Clippers (546) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (545). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-28-20 |
Hornets v. Raptors -13.5 |
Top |
99-96 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 58 m |
Show
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At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (530) minus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (529). THE SITUATION: Toronto (42-16) looks to bounce-back from their 108-97 upset loss at home to Milwaukee on Tuesday as a 1-point favorite. Charlotte (20-38) snapped a two-game losing streak n Wednesday with their 107-101 upset win over New York as a 2-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS MINUS THE POINTS: Toronto only made 35.2% of their shots on Tuesday in what was the lowest shooting effort in their last twenty-three games against the outstanding Bucks defense. The Raptors has still won seventeen of their last nineteen games and they should respond with a strong effort tonight. Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss at home by at least 10 points. They did play very well on the defensive end of the court as they limited the Bucks to just 38.1% shooting room the field. The Raptors limited Indiana to just a 32.6% field goal percentage in their previous game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing their last two opponents to shoot better than 39% from the field. Toronto named just 18 of their 52 shots from behind the arc against Milwaukee for a 34.6% mark which is a bit below their 37.6% shooting percentage from 3-point land this season. They should fare better tonight against this Hornets team that has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 road games against teams who are making at least 36% of their 3-pointers. The Raptors stay at home where they are 23-8 this season with an average winning margin of +9.0 PPG. They are making 47% of their shots at home which has translated into 116.5 PPG. Toronto has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. The Raptors have also over the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40%. Charlotte has won four of their last six games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread 24 of their last 34 games after winning four or five of their last six games. In their victory over the Knicks, they allowed them to make 50.6% of their shots which was after they allowed the Pacers to shoot 57% from the field in their previous game. The Hornets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last two opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field. Charlotte ranks 26th in the NBA in Defensive Rating this season as they allow 113.0 points per 100 possessions. The Hornets will also be without Malik Monk who has suspended for violating the league’s anti-drug program. Monk was scoring 17.0 PPG over their last thirteen games while making 35% of his shots from behind the arc during that span. Charlotte goes back on the road where they are just 11-21 with an average losing margin of -9.7 PPG. They are allowing their opponents to make 47.8% of their shots which has translated into 109.7 PPG. The Hornets have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Additionally, Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto will not be at full strength as well tonight with Marc Gasol out and both Norman Powell and Serge Ibaka questionable with injuries. But they still have Pascal Siakam, Kule Lowery, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby and the outstanding depth that this organization has compiled on this roster. The issue is whether the Raptors are being asked to lay too many points. I am wary of laying over double-digits in the NBA but I do look closely at team trends to evaluate the personalities of teams regarding how they evaluate situations like this. Toronto has covered the point spread in all 4 of their games this season when they have been laying at least 10 points. Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of the 13 circumstances this season where they were double-digit underdogs — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting 12.5 or more points. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Toronto Raptors (530) minus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (529). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-28-20 |
Georgia Southern v. Georgia State -5.5 |
Top |
79-70 |
Loss |
-108 |
19 h 31 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (852) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (851). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (18-11) has lost two straight games after their 86-78 loss at Texas State last Saturday as a 4-point underdog. Georgia Southern (17-12) snapped their two-game losing streak on Saturday with their 81-61 upset victory at UT-Arlington as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia State should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss on the road. The Panthers have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 85 points in their last game. Now after being on a road underdog in their last two games, they return home where they are 11-1 this season with an average winning margin of +16.9 PPG. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after being an underdog in two straight games. The Panthers score a healthy 84.2 PPG on their home court while limiting their guests to just 37.9% shooting from the field which has translated into only 67.3 PPG. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 5 straight home games with the Total set in the 150 to 159.5 point range. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games as a favorite of no more than 6 points. Georgia Southern made 52.8% of their shots on Saturday in what was the best shooting effort in their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where they scored at least 80 points in their last game. They also held the Mavericks to just 31.8% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last eleven games. But the Eagles have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of the last 7 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset win against a Sun Belt Conference foe. Furthermore, Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 15 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a double-digit win over a Sun Belt rival. Now the Eagles stay on the road where they are just 7-9 this season where they are making only 42.7% of their shots from the field. Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after fifteen games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year with the Georgia State Panthers (852) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (851). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-27-20 |
Arizona v. USC UNDER 140 |
Top |
48-57 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (651) and the USC Trojans (652). THE SITUATION: Arizona (19-8) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 73-72 upset loss at home to Oregon as a 5.5-point favorite. USC (19-9) has lost their last two games with their 75-69 loss at Utah as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats allowed the Ducks to shoot 42.6% from the field which was the best shooting effort from an opponent in their last four games. Arizona should tighten up on defense — they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. The Wildcats rank 21st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that mark rises to them being the 5th best team in the nation when playing on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Arizona holds their home hosts to just 39.8% shooting which is resulting in them allowing only 67.7 PPG in their eleven road games. The Wildcats make only 28.2% of their 3-pointers on the road which is 313rd in the nation — and their effective field goal percentage of 44.3% on the road ranks 318th. Arizona has played 4 of there last 5 road games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as the favorite. USC has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Trojans have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after a point spread defeat. USC allowed the Utes to make 48.2% of their shots on Sunday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. The Trojans have the 40th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that ranking has improved to 31st best in the country in that metric over their last ten games. USC has held their last five opponents to just 37.6% shooting from the field and now they return home after playing their last two games on the road. The Trojans have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. USC is 11-2 at home while holding their guests to scoring 64.5 PPG on 39.5% shooting from the field. But USC only makes 43.2% of their shots at home given their 47.5% shooting percentage inside the arc which is 285th in the nation. The Under is 39-18-1 in the Trojans’ last 58 home games — and they have played 7 storage home games Under the Total in February. Furthermore, the Trojans have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: USC will be looking to avenge an 85-80 loss at Arizona back on February 6th. The Trojans have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (651) and the USC Trojans (652). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-20 |
Kings v. Thunder OVER 220.5 |
|
108-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (521) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (522). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (24-33) has won three straight games after their 112-94 win at Golden State as an 8.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Oklahoma City (36-22) has won four straight games as well as thirteen of their last sixteen contests with their 124-122 victory in Chicago on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Kings have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a victory by at least 15 points. Head coach Luke Walton has this team playing at the faster pace they embraced last season. After ranking 24th in the NBA in pace, Sacramento has amped that up to the 7th fastest tempo in the league over their last five games. The Kings are scoring 115.8 PPG in these last five games while also allowing 115.0 PPG in those contests. Walton has indicated that he will have his team continue to play at the faster pace in preparation for next season. As it is, Sacramento has played 18 of their last 24 games Over the Total with the number set in the 220 to 229.5 point range — and they have also played ten of their last thirteen games Over the Total when playing on the road with the Total in that range. They stay on the road tonight where they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Oklahoma City has played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up victory where they failed to cover the point spread. They are scoring 119.4 PPG over their last five games on 50.8% shooting from the field — but they have allowed those last five opponents to make 47% of their shots which has resulted in them allowing 111.6 PPG in those games. They return home where they are making 48.7% of their shots for a 113.7 PPG scoring average — but they are also allowing 109.2 PPG. The Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Over is also 14-4-1 in the Thunder’s last 19 games when they are the favorite — and this includes them playing 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total when favored in the 6.5 to 12 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City won the last meeting between these two teams by a 120-100 score back on January 29th. The Kings have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (521) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-20 |
LSU v. Florida OVER 146.5 |
|
66-81 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the LSU Tigers (841) and the Florida Gators (842). THE SITUATION: LSU (19-8) snapped their two-game losing streak on Saturday with their 86-80 win at South Carolina as a pick ‘em. Florida (17-10) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 65-59 loss at Kentucky where they were 5-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tigers held the Gamecocks to just 37.3% shooting from the field in what was the best defensive effort in their last six games. But the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road after a victory. Additionally, the Over is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread win. LSU has also played 21 of their last 28 road games Over the Total after a game where at least 165 combined points were scored. The Tigers stay on the road where they are 6-6 while averaging 82.3 PPG but allowing 80.6 PPG in their twelve contests. LSU has played 36 of their last 52 road games Over the Total which includes them playing eight of the last nine games on the road Over the Total. They have also played 20 of their last 26 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and the Over is 45-19-1 in their last 65 road games when they are the underdog. The Tigers rank 2nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have scored at least 76 points in six straight contests. LSU has then played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after scoring at least 75 points four straight games. Florida has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Gators have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 65 points. They return home where they are 10-3 this season while averaging 75.4 PPG. Florida has paled 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on their home court. Additionally, the Gators have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Florida holds their opponents to just 41.5% shooting from the field — but LSU has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 42% or less. 10* CBB LSU-Florida ESPN2 O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the LSU Tigers (841) and the Florida Gators (842). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-26-20 |
Grizzlies v. Rockets UNDER 237.5 |
Top |
112-140 |
Loss |
-104 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
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At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (513) and the Houston Rockets (514). THE SITUATION: Memphis (28-29) has lost three straight games after their 124-97 loss at Los Angeles against the Clippers on Monday as an 11.5-point underdog. Houston (37-20) has won four straight games with their 123-112 win over New York on Monday as a 13.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Grizzlies have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 10 points — and this includes them playing four of these last five situations Under the Total. Memphis has also played 4 straight games Under the Total both after a straight-up loss and after a point spread setback. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. Memphis has been playing short-handed with Jaren Jackson, Jr., Grayson Allen, and the recently acquired Justise Winslow all injured. They made only 41.6% of their shots on Monday which was the lowest shooting effort in their last five games. Brandon Clarke also suffered a hip injury in that game which will keep him out for a couple of weeks which further hampers the Grizzlies offensive attack. Memphis has had the fourth-worst offense since the trade deadline with the reason seeming to be that when they dealt away Jae Crowder and Solomon Hill, they lost their two most active shooters from behind the arc. With Kyle Anderson sliding into the starting lineup despite not being a long-range shooting threat, opposing defenses are more comfortable to pack the paint to thwart Ja Morant’s driving lanes while also providing more help in double-teaming Jonas Valanciunas’ post-ups. And it is not helping matters that Dillon Brooks is in the midst of a big shooting slump: over his last nine games, he is shooting only 28.5% from the field while making just 17.1% of his shots from behind the arc. Now the Grizzlies play their fourth straight game on the road — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after playing their last three games on the road. Memphis has also played 21 of their last 30 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Grizzlies are scoring 111.7 PPG on the road this year which is not very much when considering tonight’s Total is in the high-230s. Memphis has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the number set at 230 or higher. And while the Grizzlies are averaging 47.2% shooting this season while holding their opponents to a 45.5% field goal percentage, they are only making 45.4% of their shots over their last five games — but they are limiting their opponents to a 43.7% field goal percentage. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Rockets have also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a game where at least 230 combined points were scored. With the trade of Clint Capela, this team has completely embraced small-ball with them launching even more 3-pointers than ever. But Houston has also played a bit better on the defensive end of the court as they rank 12th in the league in Defensive Rating in their ten games since the All-Star break as compared to their 15th ranking in that metric overall this season. Over their last five games, the Rockets are holding their opponents to 109.2 PPG which is -5.0 PPG below their season average. Houston has played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total with the number set at 230 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Russell Westbrook is listed as probable for tonight with his thumb injury but Eric Gordon is questionable with a knee injury — and his absence will impact the Rockets’ 3-point shooting. Houston will be looking to avenge a 121-110 upset loss in Memphis back on January 14th — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 27 of their last 39 encounters in Houston Under the Total. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (513) and the Houston Rockets (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-26-20 |
Magic v. Hawks OVER 225.5 |
|
130-120 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 58 m |
Show
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At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (507) and the Atlanta Hawks (508). THE SITUATION: Orlando (25-32) has won three of their last four games with their 115-113 upset win at Brooklyn as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Atlanta (17-42) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 129-112 loss at Philadelphia as an 8.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Magic have seen the Over go 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. And while Orlando has played four straight games Over the Total, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. Head coach Steve Clifford has leaned more heavily on a lineup of Markelle Fultz, Terrence Ross, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Vucevic which has given the team a jump on offense. Orlando is scoring 113.4 PPG over their last five games. But that group presents some liabilities on the defensive end of the court as the Magic have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.1% of their shots which was resulted in 117.0 PPG. The Magic stay on the road where the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Hawks have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. And in their last 7 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game, Atlanta has played 6 of these games Over the Total. The Hawks made just 41.2% of their shots on Monday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last six games. Now the Hawks return home hewer they are making 45.6% of their shots which is producing 112.3 PPG. But Atlanta is also allowing their opponents to shoot 46.4% from the field which is resulting in 115.1 PPG when they are playing on their home court. The Hawks have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing at home. Atlanta has also played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played a decisive 32 of their last 45 games as an underdog overall. Over their last five games, the Hawks are scoring 116.6 PPG — but they allowed those five opponents to average 124.4 PPG on 48.1% shooting.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 32 of their last 53 games Over the Total with the Total set at 220 or higher. Orlando has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 220 to 229.5 point range. 10* NBA Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (507) and the Atlanta Hawks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-25-20 |
Bucks v. Raptors OVER 230 |
Top |
108-97 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 58 m |
Show
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At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (577) and the Toronto Raptors (578). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (49-8) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last nine games with their 137-134 win at Washington last night as a 12.5-point favorite. Toronto (42-15) has won their last two games as well as seventeen of their last eighteen contests with their 127-81 victory Indiana on Sunday as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks have played 7 straight games Over the Total after a win on the road by 3 points or less. Milwaukee has also played 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. And the Bucks have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a game where they allowed at least 130 points. Milwaukee made 57% of their shots against the Wizards which the third straight game that they made at least 50% of their shots since the All-Star break — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in three straight games. The Bucks are shooting 49% from the field over their last five games which has generated 123.2 PPG. They stay on the road where they are making 47.9% of their shots which is resulting in 118.6 PPG. The Over is 19-7-1 in Milwaukee’s last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Raptors make 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc — and the Bucks have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who make at least 36% of their shots from 3-point land. Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after a win on their home court. The Raptors have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 7 games after a double-digit win, Toronto has played 5 of these games Over the Total. The Raptors held the Pacers to just 32.6% shooting which was the best defensive effort of their season. They also made 51.1% of their shots in that game after nailing 52.5% of their shots in their previous game against Phoenix — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after shooting at least 50% from the field in two straight contests. They stay at home where they are 23-7 while making 47.5% of their shots which is producing 117.3 PPG. Toronto has won nine straight games at home while averaging 125.1 PPG in those contests on 51.9% shooting from the field and a 41.3% clip from behind the arc. The Raptors have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with the number set at 230 or higher. Toronto has also played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog. And while the Bucks average 91 shots per game in their up-tempo offense, the Raptors have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 88 shots per game.
FINAL TAKE: The Raptors will not be at full strength with Norman Powell and Marc Gasol both out with injuries — and that will hurt them more on the defensive end of the court rather than with their scoring. These two teams last played back on November 2nd when the Bucks won on their home court by a 115-105 score. Toronto has played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (577) and the Toronto Raptors (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-25-20 |
TCU v. Iowa State -2.5 |
Top |
59-65 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (606) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (605). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (11-16) has lost two straight games after their 87-57 loss at home to Texas Tech as a 5-point underdog on Saturday. TCU (15-12) has won two of their last three games with their 67-60 upset victory over West Virginia as a 5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa State played one of their worst games of the season on Saturday against one of the hottest teams in the nation in that Red Raiders team. The Cyclones shot just 35.8% from the field which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last ten games. Iowa State also allowed Texas Tech to make 57.1% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last twenty-two contests. The Cyclones have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. Iowa State suffered a terrible blow a few weeks ago with the season-ending injury to their best player, Tyrese Halliburton. Yet Steve Promm’s team immediately responded with an 81-52 blowout win at home against Texas in their first game without Halliburton before losing at Kansas and then at home to the Red Raiders which are two teams that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks in the top-15 in the nation according to his numbers. This team should respond with a strong effort in this winnable game. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least 20 points to a fellow Big 12 rival. And while Iowa State has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after failing to cover the point spread in three of the last four games. The Cyclones are 10-5 at home with an average winning margin of +7.3 PPG while limiting their opponents to just 41.2% shooting from the field. They have covered 4 straight home games as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when favored by up to 6 points. And in their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, Iowa State has covered the point spread in 4 of these contests. TCU made 44.4% of their shots in their upset win over the Mountaineers which was the best shooting mark in their last eight games. They also held West Virginia to just 40.3% shooting which was also the best defensive effort in their last twelve games. But the Horned Frogs have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road after a win over a conference opponent. Additionally, TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. Now the Horned Frogs go back on the road where they are just 2-8 this season. While TCU ranks 90th in the nation in Net Adjusted Efficiency overall, they plummet to 206th in the nation with their Net Adjusted Efficiency when playing on the road. They rank 351st in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 58.2% when playing on the road — their home hosts are making 47.4% of their shots overall which has resulted in 70.6 PPG. They also have an effective field goal percentage of 42.4% on the road which is 343rd in the nation while making only 37.5% of their shots which is producing just 56.9 PPG. The Horned Frogs are also making only 38.8% of their shots over their last five games which is why they are averaging just 55.8 PPG. TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on the road — and they ave failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games on the road against teams who are winning at least 60 % of their games at home. The Horned Frogs are also just 6-19-2 ATS in the last 27 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Head coach Jamie Dixon only uses eight players in his rotation — and TCU may be without starting guard Francisco Farabello who is questionable with a concussion. This has been a disappointing season for the Cyclones — and their postseason aspirations are likely gone with Halliburton’s injury — but look for them to play a good game after their embarrassing loss to Texas Tech. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPNU Game of the Year with the Iowa State Cyclones (606) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (605). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-24-20 |
Suns v. Jazz -8 |
Top |
131-111 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 8 m |
Show
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At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (572) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (571). THE SITUATION: Utah (36-20) has lost two straight games after their 120-110 upset loss at home to Houston as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Phoenix (23-34) has won two of their last three games after their 112-104 win at Chicago on Saturday as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Utah has suffered two straight upset losses as their setback on Saturday was preceded by a 113-104 upset loss at home to San Antonio as a 7-point favorite last Friday. The Jazz should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games are an upset loss at home by at least 10 points. Utah has also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 40 of their last 62 home games after a loss at home by at least 10 points. The Jazz allowed the Rockets to make 48.9% of their shots in that contest on Saturday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seven games. Utah stays at home for the fourth straight game where they are holding their guests to just a 44.5% field goal percentage which has translated into only 105.0 PPG — so they should play better on defense tonight. The Jazz are still 20-7 on their home court where they are making 47.8% of their shots which is producing 111.2 PPG. Utah has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games with the Total set in the 220 to 229.5 point range. Over their last five contests, they are shooting a healthy 48.9% of their shots. And in their last 20 games when playing with one day of rest, the Jazz have coved the point spread 14 times. Phoenix is likely due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. That was the thirteenth straight game where Phoenix played a game where at least 216 combined points were scored — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after playing at least three straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. Now the Suns stay on the road for the third straight games where they are 12-16 while allowing their home hosts to score 114.2 PPG on 47.4% shooting from the field. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Additionally, the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix may be just what the doctor ordered for this Utah team that has dominated this series as of late. The Jazz have won the last eight meetings between these two teams along with fifteen of their last sixteen encounters with the Suns. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with Phoenix while also going 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 opportunities to host the Suns in Salt Lake City. The Jazz won the last showdown between these two teams back on October 28th by a 96-95 score in Phoenix — and the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when looking to avenge a narrow loss by 3 points or less. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year with the Utah Jazz (572) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (571). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-24-20 |
Oklahoma State v. Kansas OVER 134.5 |
Top |
58-83 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys (877) and the Kansas Jayhawks (878). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (14-13) has won three of their last four games after their 83-66 win over Oklahoma on Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite. Kansas (24-3) has won twelve straight games with their 64-61 upset win at Baylor as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the total after a straight-up win. Oklahoma State has also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games against fellow Big 12 opponents. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. They also have played 6 of tiger last 9 road games as a double-digit underdog. The Cowboys will be challenged by the outstanding defense that this Jayhawks team plays. Kansas is limiting their opponents to averaging just 60.7 PPG — but Oklahoma State has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against opponents who do not allow more than 64 PPG. The Cowboys rank 98th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency this season — but they have the 46th best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency mark over their last ten games. Kansas has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a narrow victory by 3 points or less — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Jayhawks victory over the Bears fell below the 131 point total, they have then played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Kansas has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points. Kansas returns home where they are 12-1 this season while making 49.6% of their shots which is resulting in 78.7 PPG. The Jayhawks have the 9th best offense in the nation based on Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have the 2nd highest Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on their home court. Kansas makes 58.3% of their shots inside the arc when playing at home which is the 11th best mark in the country. Oklahoma State is vulnerable on the defensive end of the court as they rank 9th in the Big 12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they allow their home hosts to shoot 50% of their shots inside the arc on the road which is the 138th worst mark in the nation. The Over is 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Jayhawks have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 18 of their last 28 home games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite. Kansas has also played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 130 to 139.5 point range. And while the Cowboys hold their opponents to 40% shooting this season, the Jayhawks have played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against opponents who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas won the first meeting between these two teams back on January 27th by a 65-50 score. Oklahoma State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on their home court. 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys (877) and the Kansas Jayhawks (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-24-20 |
Magic v. Nets -3.5 |
|
115-113 |
Loss |
-107 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
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At 7:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (566) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (565). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (26-29) has won five of their last seven games with their 115-86 win at Charlotte on Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. Orlando (24-32) has lost four of their last six games with their 122-106 loss at home to Dallas as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS MINUS THE POINTS: Brooklyn should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Nets have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when they did not allow more than 90 points in their last game. And in their last 16 games after winning at least four of their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of these games. Brooklyn returns home for one game before embarking on a four-game road trip so they will want to take care of business tonight. While they are 16-12 at home in the Barclays Center, they have won their last five games while averaging 121.4 PPG while allowing just 101.8 PPG in those games. The Nets have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home. Brooklyn has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. The Nets will be without Kyrie Irving for the rest of the season as he deals with a shoulder injury — but they were just 8-12 with him while being 18-17 without him. Brooklyn’s best lineup this season has been Spencer Dinwiddie, Joe Harris, Caris LeVert, Taurean Prince, and Jarrett Allen who have outscored their opponents by 16.9 points per 100 possessions while posting an outstanding 97.1 Defensive Rating. Orlando has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games are a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. The Magic have launched at least 95 shots in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after taking at least 90 shots in two straight games. Furthermore, Orlando has only covered the point spread once in their last five games but that is not a good sign now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. Now after playing their last four games at home, they go back on the road where they are just 9-18 while making only 43.1% of their shots to average just 104.2 PPG. Orlando has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Magic have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Brooklyn will be looking to avenge a 101-89 loss at Orlando back on January 6th. The Nets have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 42 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 43 of their last 68 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Brooklyn Nets (566) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (565). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-24-20 |
Hawks v. 76ers -8.5 |
Top |
112-129 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (564) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (563). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (35-22) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 119-98 loss at Milwaukee as a 9.5-point underdog. Atlanta (17-41) has won their last two games after their 111-107 win over Dallas on Saturday as a 2-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia made only 35% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst shooting percentage for them all season. They also allowed the Bucks to make 52.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six contests. The 76ers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road by at least 20 points. Philadelphia will not be at full strength for this game with Ben Simmons out with a back injury and Tobias Harris dealing with a knee — but that opens up space for Joel Embiid to lead the way without any conflicts with Simmons. Embiid scored 39 points while adding 16 rebounds last Thursday in an overtime victory over Brooklyn in the last opportunity he had to lead the team without Simmons being available to play. The Sixers return home where they are 26-2 this season with an average winning margin of +10.0 PPG. Philly makes 48.3% of their shots at home which results in them averaging 111.9 PPG. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Furthermore, Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as a favorite — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams who are not making at least 40% of their shots on the road. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a victory on their home court. The Hawks are also 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games after a point spread victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games after a point spread victory. Atlanta has covered the point spread in two straight games but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And while they have scored at least 105 points in eight straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after scoring at least 105 points in three straight contests. The Hawks go back not he road where they are just 6-24 while being outscored by -13.3 PPG. Atlanta allows their home hosts to make 48.6% of their shots with them averaging 122.2 PPG. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 road games with the Total set in the 220s. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Clint Capela has yet to make his debut for the Hawks after being traded over from Houston — he is dealing with a heel injury and might not play this season. Atlanta is also without DeAndre Bembry who is out with an abdominal injury. Philadelphia is looking to avenge a 127-117 upset loss in Atlanta back on January 30th — and they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 48 home games when playing with revenge. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Philadelphia 76ers (564) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (563). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-20 |
Stanford v. Washington State UNDER 135 |
Top |
75-57 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (865) and the Washington State Cougars (866). THE SITUATION: Stanford (17-9) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 72-64 upset win at Washington as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday. Washington State (14-13) has lost three straight games with their 66-57 upset loss to California as a 6.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinal has seen the Under go 8-3-2 in their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Stanford has also played 8 of their last 11 games after an upset loss. The Cardinal is one of the best defensive teams in the nation as they rank 6th in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank 7th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They hold their hosts to just 42% shooting from inside the arc which helps them post an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.5% — both those numbers are 3rd best in the nation for teams playing on the road. The Under is 9-4-2 in Stanford’s last 15 games on the road — and the Under is also 9-4-1 in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better when playing at home. Furthermore, the Under is 3-0-1 in the Cardinal’s last 4 road games as a favorite — and they have also seen the Under go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games as a favorite. Washington State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Cougars have played 4 straight games Under the Total after losing two in a row — and they have played a decisive 36 of their last 51 games at home Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. They made only 29.8% of their shots against the Golden Bears after shooting just 28.6% from the field in their previous game against USC. Over their last five games, Washington State is shooting just 35.8% which has resulted in only 63.8 PPG. They stay at home where they are making just 40.9% of their shots while ranking 302nd in the nation with a 46.4% field goal percentage inside the arc. Overall, the Cougars have an effective field goal percentage of 46.6% when playing at home which is the 313th lowest mark in the nation. Moving forward, the Cougars have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: To make matters worse, they may be without their point guard Isaac Bonton who is questionable with a leg injury. Boston leads the team in touches when he is on the court while ranking second in shots — so the Washington State offense will likely suffer if he is not able to play or if he is hindered with his leg. 25* CBB Sunday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (865) and the Washington State Cougars (866). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-20 |
Spurs v. Thunder -5 |
|
103-131 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (552) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (551). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (34-22) has won two straight games as well as six of their last eight contests with their 113-101 win over Denver as a 1.5-point favorite on Friday. San Antonio (24-31) has won their last two games after their 113-104 upset win in Utah on Friday as a 7-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win — and they have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Thunder have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games after a win by at least 10 points. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to 6 points. Additionally, Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games with the Total set at 220 or higher. San Antonio held the Jazz to just 42.7% shooting on Friday which was the best defensive effort in their last seven games. But they have still allowed their last five opponents to make 50.1% of their shots. And the Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games are an upset victory as a road underdog. Additionally, San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning their last two games. This will be the Spurs’ final game in their eight-game road trip that coincides with their home arena being used this month for the annual rodeo in San Antonio. The Spurs began this road excursion by losing their first five games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. San Antonio is just 10-19 on the road while allowing their opponents to make 48.0% of their shots which has resulted in 116.0 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games against the Thunder in Oklahoma City. San Antonio won the last meeting between these two teams by a 114-106 score as an 8-point underdog — but the Thunder have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games when playing with revenge. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Oklahoma City Thunder (552) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-20 |
Celtics +7.5 v. Lakers |
|
112-114 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 3:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (545) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (546). THE SITUATION: Boston (39-16) has won two straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests with their 127-117 win at Minnesota on Friday as an 8.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (42-12) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 117-105 win over Memphis as a 10.5-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS PLUS THE POINTS: The Celtics should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games afar point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning two of their last three contests. Now this team stays on the road where they are 16-11 this season while holding their hosts to just 106.0 PPG on 43.3% shooting from the field. Boston is 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as an underdog. Los Angeles (42-12) has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games the a win at home by at least 10 points. The Lakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with one day of rest. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Defense has been an issue for this team as of late as they have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.1% of their shots from the field. And in their last 48 games against teams from the Eastern Conference, the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread 32 times.
FINAL TAKE: Boston will be without Kemba Walker for the next week or so after he had his knee drained — but this remains a team full of talent with Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Gordon Hayward, and Jason Theis all scoring at least 25 points in their win against the Timberwolves on Friday. The Lakers are looking to avenge a 139-107 loss at Boston back on January 20th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when avenging a double-digit loss on the road and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 30 points. 10* NBA Boston-LA Lakers ABC-TV Special with the Boston Celtics (545) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-20 |
Southern Utah v. Weber State OVER 136 |
Top |
71-82 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between Southern Utah Thundercats (771) and the Weber State Wildcats (772). THE SITUATION: Southern Utah (14-12) has lost three straight games after their 68-66 loss at Northern Colorado as a 7-point underdog on Thursday. Weber State (10-16) has lost their last three games with their 77-63 loss at Montana State as a 5-point underdog last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Thunderbirds have played 7 of their last 10 games over the total after a loss on the road by 3 points or less. They also have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Southern Utah has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing three straight games to Big Sky opponents. Now the Thunderbirds go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Southern Utah has not made more than three shots from behind the arc in two straight games — but they have then played 22 of their last 30 games Over the Total after failing to make more than three shots from 3-point range in two straight games. They now face a Wildcats team that is 328th in the nation by allowing their opponents to nail 37.3% of their shots from downtown. Weber State allows their opponents to make 45.1% of their shots this season — and the Thunderbirds have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who allow their opponents to make at least 45% of their shots. Southern Utah has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games. Weber State has played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. The Wildcats have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after losing two straight games. They return home where they are 7-4 while making 49.4% of their shots which is generating 80.5 PPG. Weber State has played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as an underdog. The Wildcats’ play on the defensive end of the court has waned as of late. They have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.9% of their shots which has resulted in them averaging 71.0 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Southern Utah will be looking to avenge a 75-65 upset loss at home to Weber State back on January 30th. The Thunderbirds have played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between Southern Utah Thundercats (771) and the Weber State Wildcats (772). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-20 |
76ers v. Bucks -8.5 |
Top |
98-119 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (541). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (47-8) has won six of their last seven games with their 126-106 win at Detroit on Thursday as a 13-point favorite. Philadelphia (35-31) has won their last four games with their 112-104 win over Brooklyn on Thursday as an 8-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee made 50.8% of their shots in racing out to a 29-point lead going into halftime against the hapless Pistons — but they still allowed Detroit to make 48.2% of their shots which was the second highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seventeen games. The Bucks allowed Indiana to shoot 52.3% from the field in the last game before the All-Star break in a game where Giannis Antetokounmpo did not play with the birth of his child. Expect a better defensive effort from this team tonight. As it is, Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after both a straight-up win and after a point spread victory — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Now this team returns home for the first time since February 10th — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. Milwaukee is 25-3 on their home court where they are outscoring their guests by +13.1 PPG while limiting them to just 41.4% shooting from the field. The Bucks also make 48.5% of their shots on their home court which translate into 121.5 PPG. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% on the road. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Philadelphia played their best defensive game of the season on Thursday as they held the Nets to just 35.3% shooting. Joel Embiid led the way with 39 points along with 16 rebounds and later proclaimed to be the “best player in the world” after the game. But the 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning at least four games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. This is a team where the sum of the parts are not as powerful as the individual pieces suggest. Chemistry and team cohesion are significant concerns with Embiid and Ben Simmons battle for the claim of being the leader of this team. Is it a coincidence that Embiid has a big game on Thursday with Simmons out with a back issue? Is it then a coincidence that Embiid boasts he is the “best player in the game?” Are you even the best player on your own team, big guy? The frustrating thing about Embiid is that he will then try to prove himself by launching 3 after 3 — and that is not close to the most effective way for his skills on offense to be utilized. The Sixers have, at times, played their best ball with Embiid out and Simmons leading the way along with Al Horford manning the post. Unfortunately, Horford has been a disappointment when playing on the court at the same time with Embiid with that lineup having one too many big men on the court. Now after playing their last four games at home, Philadelphia goes back on the road where these chemistry issues get exposed while the bench players do not perform at such a high level — and Simmons is listed as probable for this game which reignites the on-floor conflict with Embiid. The 76ers are just 9-19 on the road with an average losing margin of -5.0 PPG. Philly is just 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Furthermore, the 76ers are just 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Philadelphia thrives on the lesser teams in the league — but they are 4-12-1 ATS in the last 17 games against teams with a winning record and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Sixers will be looking to avenge a 112-101 loss at Milwaukee back on February 6th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Milwaukee to face the Bucks. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-20 |
Kings v. Clippers -8.5 |
|
112-103 |
Loss |
-108 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 3:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (532) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (531). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (37-18) returns from the All-Star break having lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after a 141-133 loss at Boston back on February 13th where they were 2.5-point underdogs. Sacramento (22-33) has won four of their last six games after their 129-125 win at home against Memphis on Thursday as a 1-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles made only 41.8% of their shots two Thursdays ago which was the worst offensive effort in their last seven games. The Clippers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after a point spread loss. The team will not be at full strength this afternoon with Paul George out with a hamstring injury and Patrick Beverley out with a groin injury — but depth is a strength of this team even before they added Marcus Morris and Reggie Jackson at the trade deadline. Kawhi Leonard should be playing in this game with load management, not a concern given the extended time off for this team. They are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games when playing with at least three days of rest. The Clippers are 22-5 at home in the Staples Center where they are outscoring their opponents by +9.1 PPG. Sacramento has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. The Kings did allow the Grizzlies to make 50.6% of their shots which was the third time in their last four games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last two opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field. Sacramento has allowed their last three opponents to score at least 123 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after giving up at least 110 points in three straight games. The Kings go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Sacramento has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers are looking to avenge a 124-123 upset loss at home to the Kings back on January 30th as a 14-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight home games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. Sacramento has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 meetings with the Clippers — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against them in the Staples Center. 10* NBA Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Clippers (532) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (531). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-20 |
Marquette +2 v. Providence |
|
72-84 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Marquette Golden Panthers (609) plus the point(s) versus the Providence Friars (610). THE SITUATION: Marquette (17-8) has lost two straight games with their 73-65 upset loss to Creighton on Tuesday as a 3.5-point favorite. Providence (15-12) has won their last two games with their 73-63 upset win at Georgetown as a 1.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN PANTHERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Markus Howard scored only 13 points in the loss on Tuesday as he made only 4 of 14 shots in that contest. Howard should be anxious to redeem himself this afternoon and get back to scoring at his 26.7 PPG clip. Marquette should be rested for this contest as this is just their second game in the last ten days — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 5-6 this season but where they also rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency for road teams. The Golden Panthers are making 39.4% of their 3-pointers on the road which is the 10th best mark in the nation. This offensive proficiency has helped Marquette cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Golden Panthers have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Providence has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win on the road. The Friars have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival. That was Providence’s second straight upset victory as their win over the Hoyas was preceded by a 74-71 upset win over Seton Hall as a 1-point underdog. The Achilles’ heel for this team is their ability to score baskets as they rank 7th in the Big East in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They only make 45.3% of their shots inside the arc which is 329th in the nation — and their effective field goal percentage of 46.4% is 310th in the country. The Friars can struggle to find good looks in their half-court offense. This helps explain why Providence has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as a favorite. The Friars have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 home games with the Total set in the 140s.
FINAL TAKE: Marquette will be looking to avenge an 81-80 upset loss in overtime at home to Providence despite being a 5.5-point favorite back on January 7th. The Golden Panthers have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 45 games when avenging an upset loss at home — and this includes them covering the point spread in five of these last seven situations. Howard scored 39 points in that contest and he now returns to Providence where he scored 52 points back in 2018. 10* CBB Marquette-Providence Fox-TV Special with the Marquette Golden Panthers (609) plus the point(s) versus the Providence Friars (610). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-21-20 |
Grizzlies +11 v. Lakers |
Top |
105-117 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (529) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (530). THE SITUATION: Memphis (28-27) saw their two-game winning streak end last night with their 129-125 loss at Sacramento as a 1-point underdog. Los Angeles (41-12) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 120-116 victory on overtime in Denver as a 3-point favorite nine days ago.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis was sluggish on defense last night in their first game back after the All-Star break. The Grizzlies allowed the Kings to make 50.6% of their shots which was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. Yet they did rally from a 15-point deficit in the 4th quarter to almost steal that game. Despite that effort, Memphis has been playing better defense as of late as they have held their last five opponents to just 42.0% shooting which has resulted in 111.6 PPG as opposed to their 114.7 PPG/45.4% defensive marks for the season. The Grizzlies should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread setback. Furthermore, Memphis has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. And in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in all 5 games. Memphis stays on the road where they are making a healthy 47.0% of their shots and where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. The Grizzlies also tend to raise their level of play against good teams as they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles may suffer from the rust that Memphis did last night after the long All-Star break. Lack of focus has been an issue for this team in the dog days of February — the Nuggets were the third team in their last four contests to make at least 50% of their shots. The Lakers have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.8% of their shots which has resulted in 111.8 PPG. Los Angeles has been winning high-scoring games as of late — they have scored at least 111 points in seven straight contests. But the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 44 home games after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 29 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. The biggest Achilles’ heel for this team is the lack of a reliable second scorer after LeBron James. Even with Anthony Davis leading the way with James off the court, the Lakers are scoring only 101.8 points per 100 possessions which would rank more than -2.0 points per 100 possessions below the lowest team mark in the league. Overall, LA averages 113.4 points per 100 possessions with James playing a key role in that high level of efficiency. This makes the Lakers unreliable when asking them to cover double-digit point spreads. And while LA has covered the point spread as the favorite in their final two games before the All-Star break, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 57 of their last 95 home games after covering their last two games as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis is a serious contender to make the playoffs with the emergence of rookie superstar Ja Morant. The Grizzlies have a very nice foundation with him joining Jaren Jackson and Brandon Clarke for one of the best young trios of talent in the league — and head coach Taylor Jenkins has been outstanding in getting the most out of his talent. The Grizzlies fare well in expected higher-scoring games like this with that offensive talent. The Lakers average 114.7 PPG on 48.8% shooting — but Memphis has covered the point span in 17 of their last 25 games against teams who score at least 110 PPG and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams who make at least 46% of their shots. And while LA allows their opponents to score 107.3 PPG, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games against teams who allow at least 106 PPG. 25* NBA Western Conference Underdog of the Year with the Memphis Grizzlies (529) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-21-20 |
Nuggets +2 v. Thunder |
|
101-113 |
Loss |
-111 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (523) plus the point(s) versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (524). THE SITUATION: Denver (38-17) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday with their 120-116 loss in overtime to the Los Angeles Lakers as a 3-point underdog. Oklahoma City (33-22) ended their two-game losing streak going into the All-Star break with their 123-118 upset win at New Orleans as a 3.5-point underdog last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS PLUS THE POINT(S): Denver allowed the Lakers to make 50.5% of their shots in that game nine days ago in what was the highest opponents’ field goal percentage in their last five games. But the Nuggets also made 50% of their shots in that loss — and that was the fifth time in their last six games that they shot at least 50% from the field. Over their last five games, Denver has made 50.9% of their shots which has resulted in 117.0 PPG. They should respond with a strong effort tonight as they are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Now they go back on the road where they are 17-10 this season — and they ave covered the point span in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record at home. The Nuggets have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. And in their last 32 games against Northwest Division opponents, Denver has covered the point spread 22 times. Don’t be surprised if Oklahoma City is sluggish in this game after their eight-day layoff. The Thunder have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with at least three days of rest — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in four of these last five situations. Oklahoma City has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games when playing no more than their third game in the last ten days. The Thunder host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. OKC has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 encounters with the Thunder — and they have covered the point spread in their last five games in Oklahoma City. 10* NBA Denver-Oklahoma City ESPN Special with the Denver Nuggets (523) plus the point(s) versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-21-20 |
Wisc-Milwaukee +4.5 v. Oakland |
Top |
68-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (871) plus the points versus the Oakland Grizzlies (872). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (12-14) looks to rebound from their 94-90 upset loss to Wisconsin-Green Bay last Saturday as a 2-point favorite. Oakland (10-17) has won their last two games with their 72-64 win over Youngstown State as a 4-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee allowed the Phoenix to make 56.9% of their shots last Saturday which was the worst defensive effort of the season. The Panthers should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a Horizon League rival. Milwaukee has also covered the point spread in a decisive 34 of their last 52 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots — and this includes them covering the point spread in three of these last four situations. Even after that defensive effort last week, the Panthers have held their last five opponents to just 40.4% shooting from the field. They go back on the road where they have won their last two contests — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 40 road games with the Total set in the 135 to 139.5 point range. Milwaukee has also covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 road games after scoring at least 85 points in their last game — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Panthers are 2nd in the Horizon League by forcing turnovers in 20.5% of their opponent’s possessions — and this is an area of weakness for the Grizzlies because they rank 7th in the conference by turning the ball over in 19.6% of their conference possessions. Milwaukee is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Oakland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on their home court. They stay at home for the third straight game where they are getting outscored this season despite their 6-5 record. But the advanced metrics rank the Grizzlies as 308th in the nation in home-court advantage when it comes to net Adjusted Efficiency — and Milwaukee ranks 202nd in the nation in net Adjusted Efficiency when playing on the road. Oakland has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games against Horizon League opponents. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 home games against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after fifteen games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. Oakland has also been an unreliable favorite as they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 47 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee plays at an up-tempo as they average 62 shots per game — and the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games against teams who average at least 62 shots per contest. 25* CBB Horizon League Underdog of the Year with the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (871) plus the points versus the Oakland Grizzlies (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-21-20 |
Suns v. Raptors -7 |
|
101-118 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (518) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (517). THE SITUATION: Toronto (40-15) saw their fifteen-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday with their 101-91 upset loss in Brooklyn as a 4-point favorite. Phoenix (22-23) has lost three straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests before going into the All-Star break with a 112-106 victory at home against Phoenix as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS MINUS THE POINTS: Toronto looks to have caught a temporary case of the New York City flu with that substandard effort in their last game before the All-Star break. The Raptors shot only 37.8% from the field which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last eighteen games. But Toronto should respond with a strong effort to redeem themselves from blowing their winning streak. The Raptors have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread defeat. Toronto returns home where they are 21-7 with an average winning margin of +8.2 PPG. They should play better on the offensive end of the court tonight as they are making 47.2% of their shots at home which is generating 116.8 PPG. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, Toronto has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games when laying 6.5 to 12 points. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up victory. The Suns have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games when playing with at least three days of rest. Now they go back on the road where they are just 11-15 this season. The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games as an underdog. 10* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Toronto Raptors (518) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (517). Bets of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-20 |
UCLA v. Utah -3 |
|
69-58 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (678) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (677). THE SITUATION: Utah (14-11) has lost two straight games with their 80-62 loss at Oregon on Sunday as a 12.5-point underdog. UCLA (15-11) has won't three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 67-57 win over Washington as a 3-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah’s loss at Oregon was preceded by a 70-51 loss at Oregon State last week — and they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after suffering two straight double-digit losses. The Utes have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games at home after a point spread loss. They return home where they are 10-1 this season with impressive victories over Minnesota and BYU. Utah is 13-1 at home this season with a +17.6 PPG scoring margin — and they rank 39th in the nation Adjusted Net Scoring Efficiency when playing on their home court. The Utes make 57.7% of their shots inside the arc when playing at home which is 14th best in the nation. Utah makes 49.5% of their shots overall at home which has resulted in 82.3 PPG. The Utes have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, Utah is a decisive 54-23-3 ATS in their last 80 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. UCLA had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. And while that game finished Under the Total, the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Additionally, UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 17 road games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight road games after winning three of their last four contests. The Bruins go back on the road where they are just 4-7 this season with an average losing margin of -4.9 PPG. UCLA makes only 43.1% of its shots on the road which results in just 66.3 PPG. The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 road games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Utah will be looking to avenge a 73-57 loss at UCLA back on February 2nd — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 42 home games when playing with same-season revenge. 10* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Utah Utes (678) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (677). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-20 |
Bucks -13 v. Pistons |
Top |
126-106 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (501) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (502). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (46-8) returns to action after the All-Star break looking to bounce-back from a 118-111 loss at Indiana last Wednesday as a 1.5-point underdog. Detroit (19-38) stumbled into the All-Star break having lost four straight games with their 116-112 loss at Orlando as a 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee was without Giannis Antetokounmpo in that loss to the Pacers with him away from the team with the birth of his son. The Bucks made only 40.7% of their shots in that game which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last fifteen games. They also allowed Indiana to make 52.3% of their shots in that game which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage all season. Look for this team to make a statement tonight as they return rested and ready to make their push to reach the NBA Finals. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 35 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They are 21-5 on the road where they are outscoring their home hosts by +11.0 PPG. They are making 47.5% of their shots on the road which has resulted in 117.6 PPG. The Bucks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as a favorite. Detroit is a mess who has fully embraced a complete rebuild after trading Andre Drummond at the trade deadline before dropping Reggie Jackson during the All-Star break who was snatched up by the Clippers. The Pistons are also without Blake Griffin for the rest of the season with his knee injury. And while the focus for this organization is to get younger, they are without one of the foundational pieces in Luke Kennard who has been out for almost two months with his knee injury. Head coach Dwane Casey is left with a roster that looks closer to a G-League group than an NBA team. This collection of players was making only 43.8% of their shots over their last five games — even with Jackson in the mix — which was resulting in just 99.4 PPG. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Pistons have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with at least three days of rest. They are just 11-19 at home this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of the last 18 games in their Little Caesar’s Arena. Furthermore, Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: The Pistons are looking to avenge a 127-103 loss at home to the Bucks back on December 4th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. Detroit was an 8.5-point underdog in that meeting and now they are getting 13 or so points with their depleted roster. Milwaukee had won their previous six games away from home by double-digits before their loss at Indiana. 25* NBA Central Division Game of the Year with the Milwaukee Bucks (501) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-20 |
South Alabama +3 v. Appalachian State |
Top |
78-70 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the South Alabama Jaguars (601) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (602). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (16-11) has won four straight games with their 50-49 win over UL-Monroe last Saturday as a 10-point favorite. Appalachian State (15-12) has won three of their last four games with their 62-57 upset win at Georgia Southern last Saturday as a 6-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: South Alabama won that game last week despite making only 31.6% of their shots which was the lowest shooting mark for them all season. The Jaguars survived that game due to holding the Warhawks to just 31.5% shooting. South Alabama has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. The Jaguars have not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in a decisive 42 of their last 65 games on the road after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. South Alabama has held its last five opponents to just 38.7% shooting from the field. Now the Jaguars go back on the road where they are 7-6 this season. South Alabama forces turnovers — and this attribute travels. The Jaguars 3rd in the Sun Belt Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.4% of their opponent’s possessions — and that mark improves to a 20.5% clip when they are playing on the road which is 53rd best in the nation. This is an area of vulnerability for the Mountaineers as they are 7th in the Sun Belt by turning the ball over in 20.0% of their conference possessions — and that number worsens to a 20.9% clip where they are playing at home which is the 306th worst mark in the nation. South Alabama is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. The Jaguars are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games as a dog. Appalachian State may be due for a letdown as they are just 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games after a point spread victory. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. The Mountaineers return home where they are 8-4 this season but with a small average winning margin of +4.4 PPG. Appalachian State makes only 41.8% of their shots at home which results in just 68.7 PPG — they also rank 310th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on their home court. The Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 home games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range. Appalachian State has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when favored
|
02-19-20 |
Kansas State v. Texas Tech OVER 128.5 |
Top |
62-69 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (839) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (840). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (9-16) has lost five straight games with their 68-57 loss at TCU on Saturday as a 3-point underdog. Texas Tech (16-9) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 73-70 upset loss at Oklahoma State as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats held the Horned Frogs to just 44.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Kansas State has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Wildcats stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Kansas State has played 19 of their last 26 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 9.5 to 12 points. The Wildcats have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog overall. And in their last 15 games with the Total set at no higher than 129.5, Kansas State has played 12 of these games Over the Total. Texas Tech has splayed 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a loss by three points or less — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Red Raiders return home where they are 12-2 this season while making 48.1% of their shots which has generated 76.6 PPG. Texas Tech has played 6 straight home games Over the Total with the number set no higher than 129.5. They also have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas State will be looking to avenge a 77-63 loss at home to Texas Tech back on January 14th — and the Wildcats have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (839) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-19-20 |
California Baptist -1.5 v. UMKC |
|
63-69 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Cal-Baptist Lancers (813) minus the point(s) versus the Missouri-Kansas State Kangaroos (814). THE SITUATION: Cal-Baptist (18-7) has won four of their last five games with their 107-45 win over Westcliff in a non-boarded game last Thursday. UMKC (13-14) snapped a three-game losing streak on Saturday with their 59-53 upset victory at Cal-State Bakersfield as a 4.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LANCES MINUS THE POINT(S): Cal-Baptist should build off their momentum as they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit win on their home court. The Lancers go back on the road where they are 5-2 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road. Cal-Baptist has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Lancers are 9th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of just 43.6%. They also rank 6th in the nation by limiting their home hosts to just 26.1% shooting from behind the arc. Cal-Baptist should also get plenty of second-chance scoring chances in this game as they rank 2nd in the Western Athletic Conference by pulling down 33.2% of their missed shots. The Kangaroos are 9th in the WAC by allowing their opponents to rebound 31.3% of their missed shots. UMKC is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread win. Now after playing their last two games on the road, the Kangaroos return home where they are just 7-6 this season. UMKC has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after playing their last two games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Cal-Baptist has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. 10* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Cal-Baptist Lancers (813) minus the point(s) versus the Missouri-Kansas State Kangaroos (814). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-18-20 |
Northwestern v. Maryland UNDER 130.5 |
|
67-76 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Northwestern Wildcats (625) and the Maryland Terrapins (626). THE SITUATION: Northwestern (6-18) has lost nine straight games with their 77-61 loss at Penn State as a 12-point underdog on Saturday. Maryland (21-4) has won their last eight games with their 67-60 upset win at Michigan State on Saturday as a 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Terrapins have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home after a point spread victory. Maryland defeated the Spartans despite allowing them to make 41.8% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. The Terrapins are 5th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They return home where they are 14-0 wheel holding their opponents to just 59.3 PPG on 36.2% shooting. Maryland has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 21 of their last 29 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Northwestern has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Wildcats have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Northwestern lost that game against the Nittany Lions despite shooting 46.6% from the field which was the highest field goal percentage in their last six games. The Wildcats are last in the Big Ten in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are still shooting just 39.6% from the field in their last five games which has generated only 59.2 PPG. The Under is 15-7-1 in their last 23 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Wildcats have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Northwestern shoots only 40.8% in Big Ten play which has resulted in just 61.6 PPG. The Wildcats have played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total in conference play. Maryland is making only 40.2% of their shots on conference play — but they are holding their opponents to just 39.5% shooting in Big Ten play. The Terrapins have played 22 of their las 34 games Under the Total in conference play. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Northwestern Wildcats (625) and the Maryland Terrapins (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-18-20 |
Oklahoma State v. West Virginia -10 |
Top |
47-65 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (616) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (615). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (18-7) has lost three straight games after their 70-59 loss at Baylor on Saturday as a 5-point underdog. Oklahoma State (13-12) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 73-70 upset victory at home against Texas Tech as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS MINUS THE POINTS: West Virginia allowed the Bears to make 51.8% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. The Mountaineers remain the second best team in the nation in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least three straight games. West Virginia should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they are 12-1 this season with an average winning margin of +17.3 PPG. The Mountaineers hold their guests to just 36.4% shooting from the field which translates into only 59.2 PPG. West Virginia has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. While the Mountaineers make 45.9% of their shots at home, they do a few other things quite well to give them extra scoring opportunities. West Virginia leads the nation by pulling down 40.3% of their missed shots — and the Cowboys are 202nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 28.5% of their missed shots. The Mountaineers also lead the Big 12 by forcing turnovers in 24.6% of their opponent’s possessions — and Oklahoma State is 168th in the nation by turning the ball over in 19.0% of their possessions. The Cowboys may be due for a letdown after pulling off two straight upset wins as they also knocked off Kansas State on the road as a 3-point underdog before pulling off the same feat against the Red Raiders. But Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning three of their last four games. They stat on the road where they are 6-6 despite making only 43.6% of their shots from the field. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 9.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys will be looking to avenge a 55-41 loss at home to the Mountaineers back on January 6th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the West Virginia Mountaineers (616) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (615). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-17-20 |
Idaho v. Portland State -10.5 |
Top |
69-90 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Portland State Vikings (868) minus the points versus the Idaho Vandals (867). THE SITUATION: Portland State (12-14) has lost two of their last three games with their 89-81 upset loss to Eastern Washington as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Idaho (7-17) had lost eight of their last nine games before they upset Eastern Washington last Thursday as a 15-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Portland State should respond with a strong effort as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They stay at home where they are 7-3 this season with an average winning margin of +10.0 PPG. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Portland State has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. The Vikings shoot 46.5% on their home court but there are a few things they do that give them extra possessions which helps them get to their 83.6 PPG scoring average on their home court even their shots are not falling. Portland State is 8th in the nation by pulling down 36.1% of their missed shots — and that mark rises to a 37.4% mark when they are playing at home. The Vikings are also 3rd in the Big Sky Conference by forcing turnovers in 19.6% of their opponent’s possessions. This is an area of weakness for the Vandals as they are last in the Big Sky by turning the ball over in 20.8% of their conference possessions. That mark rises to a 21.5% clip when they are playing on the road which is 272nd in the country. Idaho has not been very consistent after victories as they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a win over a conference rival. Additionally, the Vandals have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset win as a road underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a win on the road. Furthermore, Idaho has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. They made 50% of their shots against Eastern Washington after shooting 52.3% from the field in their previous game against Montana — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after shooting at least 50% from the field in two straight games. The Vandals stay on the road where they are just 3-9 this season with an average losing margin of -7.0 PPG. Idaho scores only 62.7 PPG on the road while ranking 307th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Vandals are also last in the Big Sky in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.
FINAL TAKE: Portland State will be looking to avenge a 72-61 upset loss at Idaho despite being a 6.5-point underdog in that game. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Game of the Year with the Portland State Vikings (868) minus the points versus the Idaho Vandals (867). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-16-20 |
Utah v. Oregon -12 |
|
62-80 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (858) minus the points versus the Utah Utes (857). THE SITUATION: Oregon (19-6) snapped a two-game losing streak on Thursday with their 68-60 victory over Colorado as a 5-point favorite. Utah (14-10) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Thursday with their 70-51 loss at Oregon State as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Oregon has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a straight-up win — and they have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. The Ducks have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after losing two of their last three contests. Those prior two losses for this Oregon team were on the road where they are just 6-5. But the Ducks are 13-1 on their home court where they are outscoring their opponents by +16.0 PPG. Oregon makes 49.5% of their shots on their home court which has generated 81.6 PPG. They are 7th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home due to them nailing 41.8% of their shots from behind the arc which is the 4th best home mark in the nation. They should make plenty of 3s tonight against this Utes team that is third to last in the nation by allowing their home hosts to make 42.7% of their 3-pointers. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range. Oregon has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Utah has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Utes go back on the road where they are just 4-9 with an average losing margin of -10.3 PPG. Utah ranks just 307th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 55.1%. The Utes also make only 39.8% of their shots on the road which results in only 62.4 PPG. Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and hey ave failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: Utah made only 35.6% of their shots in the first meeting between these two teams on January 4th which Oregon won in Salt Lake City by a 69-64 score. The Utes were 4-point underdogs in that game — and they enter this game having failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog. 10* CBB Sunday Late Show Bailout with the Oregon Ducks (858) minus the points versus the Utah Utes (857). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-16-20 |
All Star LeBron -6 v. All Star Giannis |
|
157-155 |
Loss |
-106 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Team LeBron (581) minus the points versus Team Giannis (582). THE SITUATION: The 69th NBA All-Star Game will be taking place in Chicago. There is a new format this year to honor the legacy of Kobe Bryant. Scores will reset to zero at the start of each of the first three quarters with the “winner” of each quarter than being awarded $100,000 to be donated to the charity of their choice. Aggregate scores from the first three quarters will then be added up at the start of the 4th quarter with the game clock shut off — the leading score at the start of the 4th quarter will have 24 points (in honor of Bryant) added to that number with the winner of the game being the first team to reach that Final Target Score.
REASONS TO TAKE TEAM LEBRON MINUS THE POINTS: There are a few reasons why I prefer the roster that James has drafted. First, James has drafted some of the best talents in the league that has a bevy of experience playing in All-Star games with its unique rhythms. James Harden and Damian Lillard are 3-point specialists while Russell Westbrook is a two-time All-Star Game Most Valuable Player. Chris Paul has plenty of experience in this game as well — and he will be satisfied to be a distributor. James has also drafted some unselfish players like himself who will be happy to be facilitators. I put Kawhi Leonard in this category along with James and Ben Simmons. And don’t sleep on Anthony Davis having a monster game with this contest being played in hometown of Chicago. Second, I do not think the chemistry of Team Giannis matches those core players. Antetokounmpo drafted five players making their All-Star Game debut in Pascal Siakam, Trae Young, Brandon Ingram, Bam Adebayo, and Rudy Gobert. And I don’t trust Joel Embiid to not launch ill-advised 3-pointers like he tends to do with the 76ers. Additionally, while Siakam, Young, and Kemba Walker are all deserving All-Stars, I do not think they match up well with the James, Davis, Leonard, Harden, and Luka Doncic starting five for Team LeBron (before they can tap Simmons, Lillard, Westbrook among others from their bench). Talent, cohesion, and experience in past All-Star Games (as scoring tests) are all boxes that Team LeBron seems to have an edge in my mind.
FINAL TAKE: The issue becomes will Team LeBron cover the 6 or so points they are laying. Laying that many points is not as ominous in this exhibition game. First, higher-scoring games with more possessions per team lends itself to larger margins of victory. The Total for this contest is in the 307 range. Second, the new scoring system for the first three quarters may coax Team Giannis into tanking one of those quarters if they fall behind. The new format creates an incentive to backload the preferred five players on the court when the score resets at the start of a new quarter to “win” the charity money. That strategy may lead to Team Giannis finding themselves in a bigger hole than they realize when the 4th quarter starts. Team LeBron won this event last year by a 178-164 score. Look for something similar in a situation that is worthy of an investment. 10* NBA Team LeBron-Team Giannis All-Star Game TNT Special with Team LeBron (581) minus the points versus Team Giannis (582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-16-20 |
Evansville v. Drake -11 |
|
80-85 |
Loss |
-109 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Drake Bulldogs (846) minus the points versus the Evansville Purple Aces (845). THE SITUATION: Drake (16-10) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 97-62 loss at Missouri State on Wednesday as a 2.5-point underdog. Evansville (9-17) has lost thirteen straight games with their 73-66 loss to Loyola-Illinois on Wednesday as an 8-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Drake should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a point spread defeat. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a loss by at least 15 points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by at least 20 points. Drake allowed the Tigers to make 53% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last thirteen games. They also made just 41.2% of their shots in that game which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last five contests. The Bulldogs return home where they rank 24th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.2%. Drake is 12-1 at home with an average winning margin of +12.4 PPG. The Bulldogs make 50.3% of their shots at home which has translated into 77.3 PPG — and they hold their guests to just 40.5% shooting from the field. Drake is 37-14-2 ATS in their last 53 games at home The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games with the Total set in the 130s — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 home games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% on the road. Evansville is just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a straight-up loss. The Purple Aces made 51.2% of their shots in the losing effort which was the best shooting effort for them in their last sixteen contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread. Now Evansville goes back on the road where they rank just 302nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 44.2%. The Purple Aces are just 4-9 away from home this season with an average losing margin of -12.5 PPG. Evansville makes only 40.4% of their shots on the road which results in just 65.2 PPG. The Purple Aces have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range. Furthermore, Evansville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better — and they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Evansville will be looking to avenge a 73-50 loss at home to Drake back on January 22nd — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss this season. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Drake Bulldogs (846) minus the points versus the Evansville Purple Aces (845). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-15-20 |
Arizona v. Stanford +4.5 |
Top |
69-60 |
Loss |
-105 |
14 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Stanford Cardinal (808) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (807). THE SITUATION: Stanford (16-8) has lost three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 74-69 upset loss at home to Arizona State on Thursday. Arizona (17-7) has won five of their last six contests with their 68-52 win at California on Thursday as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINAL PLUS THE POINTS: Stanford shot a healthy 52% from the field on Thursday — but it was their defense that let them down as they allowed the Sun Devils to make 54.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. The Cardinal is one of the best defensive teams in the nation — they rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also topping the Pac-12 in that metric. Stanford should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing with one day of rest. The Cardinal has also covered the point spread in 28 of their last 42 home games after losing at least two games in a row. They stay at home where they are 12-3 this season with an average winning margin of +12.2 PPG. Stanford is 2nd in the Pac-12 with an effective field goal percentage of 52.6% — and they rank 38th in the nation with an eFG of 55.7% on their home court. Overall, the Cardinal has a field goal percentage of 48.9% at home which has translated into 71.9 PPG — and they are limiting their guests to just 39.6% shooting what results in only 59.7 PPG. Stanford has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 40 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games against Pac-12 foes. Furthermore, the Cardinal has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 home games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games as an underdog getting no more than 6 points. Arizona made 48.1% of their shots on Thursday in their win over the Golden Bears which was the best shooting mark in their last thirteen games. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win on the road. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games when playing with one day of rest. The Wildcats are not playing their best basketball as of late. They have allowed their last five opponents to make 43.5% of their shots which is well above their opponent’s 39.4% field goal percentage for the season. And while they are averaging 78.3 PPG this season on 46.1% shooting, those numbers have dropped to just a 69.2 PPG scoring clip over their last five games on 39.3% shooting. Now this team stays on the road where they make only 44.6% of their shots inside the arc which drags down their effective field goal percentage to 45.0% when on the road — those marks rank 279th an 287th in the nation. Arizona averages 78.3 PPG this season — but Stanford has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games against teams who score at least 77 PPG. And while the Cardinal has an opponent’s field goal percentage of 39.3%, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 42%.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games against teams who are winning 60 to 80% of their games —and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last thirteen games against opponents who are winning at least 60% of their contests. Stanford will be without their 6’9 junior forward Oscar Da Silva who is out with a head injury — but they do have 6’9 Jaiden Delaire and 6’10 Lukas Kisunas who are regular rotational players off the bench who will be asked to play more in this contest. It is also Da Silva’s absence which explains why the Cardinal are underdogs in the 4-point range despite the analytics projecting a 1-point win for the Wildcats. 25* CBB Pac-12 Underdog of the Year with the Stanford Cardinal (808) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (807). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-15-20 |
Bradley v. Southern Illinois UNDER 126.5 |
|
69-67 |
Loss |
-112 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Bradley Braves (641) and the Southern Illinois Salukis (642). THE SITUATION: Bradley (17-9) has won their last two games with their 72-61 win over Indiana State as a 6.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Southern Illinois (15-11) had their seven-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their 55-38 loss at Valparaiso where they were 3.5-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Salukis shot a season-low 23.6% from the field on Wednesday against the Crusaders — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not making at least 33% of their shots in their last game. Southern Illinois has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after not reaching at least 50 points in their last game. Additionally, the Salukis have played 25 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a double-digit setback. The return home where they are holding their guests to just 39.2% shooting which is translating into only 56.8 PPG. Southern Illinois has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Bradley has seen the Under go 10-4-1 in their last 15 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a victory on their home court. The Braves go back on the road where they are making just 39.1% of their shots which has resulted in only 64.3 PPG. Bradley has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total. They also have seen the Under go 10-2-1 in their last 13 road games as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Southern Illinois will be looking to avenge a 67-48 loss at Bradley back on January 11th. The Salukis have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road — and they have played 50 of their last 81 games when looking to avenge loss where they did not score at least 60 points. 10* CBB Bradley-SUI CBS Sports Network O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Bradley Braves (641) and the Southern Illinois Salukis (642). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-15-20 |
College of Charleston +3.5 v. Northeastern |
|
51-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the College of Charleston Cougars (611) plus the points versus the Northeastern Huskies (612). THE SITUATION: Charleston (15-11) has lost their last two games with their 76-63 loss at Hofstra as a 4-point underdog on Thursday. Northeastern (12-13) snapped their four-game losing streak on Thursday with their 71-63 win over UNC-Wilmington as a 13.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: Charleston has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games after a double-digit loss on the road. And while the Cougars have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Charleston allowed the Pride to make 54.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort this season. But the Cougars have still held their last five opponents to just 40.6% shooting — and they are hitting a solid 47% of their shots over that span. Charleston stays on the road where they are 17th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 53.5%. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. Northeastern has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7s tragic games at home after a straight-up win where they have failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. The Huskies have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after a point spread loss. Northeastern made 48.1% of their shots in the victory which was the best shooting mark in their last four games. But defense is the issue with this team — they rank 338th in the nation with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 55.1%. The Huskies allow their guests to make 48.4% of their shots. Northeastern is just 5-5 at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home. They also are just 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 33 home games when laying 3.5 to 6 points. The Cougars hold their opponents to just 41.8% shooting — but the Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games against teams who do not allow their opponents to make more than 42% of their shots. Northeastern leads the Colonial Athletic Association by forcing turnovers in 20.4% of their opponent’s possessions — but Charleston also leads the conference by only turning the ball over in 14.7% of their possession.
FINAL TAKE: Charleston will be looking to avenge a 79-76 upset loss at home to Northeaster back on January 16th despite being a 3-point favorite in that game. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when motivated by same-season revenge. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon Tipoff with the College of Charleston Cougars (611) plus the points versus the Northeastern Huskies (612). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-20 |
Rider v. Siena UNDER 147.5 |
Top |
64-73 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Rider Broncs (857) and the Siena Saints (858). THE SITUATION: Rider (14-9) has won five of their last six games with their 73-58 victory over Niagara last Saturday as a 9-point favorite. Siena (11-10) has won four of their last five games with their 65-49 win over Fairfield as an 8-point favorite last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Rider has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total after a victory. The Broncs won that game over the Purple Eaters by making 54.5% of their shots which was the best shooting effort of their season. But now Rider goes back on the road where they are making just 42.3% of their shots. The Broncs have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road. Rider is playing their best defense of the year at this point of the season after holding Niagara to just 33.3% shooting on Sunday. The Broncs have held their last five opponents to just 39% shooting which has resulted in just 64.6 PPG which is -6.0 PPG below their season average. Rider will be challenged to defend their defensive glass against this Saints team that leads the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference by pulling down 34.5% of their missed shots. The Broncs are 43rd in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding 24.5% of their missed shots. Rider has held their last two opponents to just 5 and 7 offensive rebounds in their last two games — and they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 offensive rebounds in two straight games. And while Siena averages a +4.6 net Rebounding Per Game margin this year, the Broncs have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who are outrebounding their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG. The Saints have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Siena has also played 8 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. The Saints stay at home where they have held their guests to just 41.2% shooting which has generated only 64.7 PPG. Siena has played 21 of their last 28 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Siena is also playing their best defense of the season after limiting the Stags to just 30.2% shooting last Friday. The Saints have limited their last five opponents to only 38% shooting which has resulted in just 63.2 PPG. Siena has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have then played 9 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games.
FINAL TAKE: Siena will be looking to avenge an 85-77 loss at Rider back on January 5th — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing with revenge where they allowed at least 75 points. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Rider Broncs (857) and the Siena Saints (858). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-20 |
IUPU-Indianapolis v. Northern Kentucky OVER 145 |
|
70-84 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis Jaguars (853) and the Northern Kentucky Norse (854). THE SITUATION: IUPUI (6-20) has lost four straight games with their 80-79 win over Wisconsin-Milwaukee on Saturday as a 4-point underdog. Northern Kentucky (18-7) has won four straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests with their 84-65 win over Detroit last Saturday as a 12-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: IUPUI has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss to a Horizon League conference rival. The Jaguars have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. IUPUI shot just 32.9% from the field in that game against the Panthers which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last sixteen games. Now the Jaguars go back on the road where they have allowed the home team to score 80.3 PPG. IUPUI has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. This team is scoring a healthy 78.2 PPG over their last five games — but they have allowed 83.8 PPG in those games as well. Northern Kentucky has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. The Norse stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Northern Kentucky is scoring 81.4 PPG at home where they are making 46.2% of their shots. The Norse should approach or exceed this scoring average as they are 2nd in the Horizon League in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are facing a Jaguars team that is last in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
FINAL TAKE: Northern Kentucky won the first meeting between these two teams back on January 12th by a 96-71 score. IUPUI has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis Jaguars (853) and the Northern Kentucky Norse (854). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-13-20 |
Colorado v. Oregon -4.5 |
|
60-68 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (656) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (655). THE SITUATION: Oregon (18-6) has lost their last two games after their 63-53 upset loss at Oregon State on Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite. Colorado (19-5) has won their last three games with their 81-74 win over Stanford as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Oregon has suffered two straight upset losses as their loss in Corvallis was preceded by a 70-60 upset loss at Stanford as a 2-point favorite. The Ducks finally return home for the first time since January 26th having played their last here games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games after playing their last three games on the road. Oregon has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on their home court after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The Ducks are 12-1 on their home court with an average winning margin of +16.1 PPG. Oregon makes 50.3% of their shots on their home court which has generated 82.7 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games — and they have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 home games with the Total set in the 130s. Furthermore, the Ducks have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games when playing just their second game in eight days. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 road games after a win on their home court. The Buffaloes win over the Cardinal came on the heels of a 71-65 win over Cal — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games on the road after winning their last two games on the road. Colorado has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after winning three of their last four games. The Buffaloes are just 13-38-1 ATS in their last 52 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 60 road games after winning two straight games against Pac-12 foes.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 37 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. Oregon has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. Look for the Ducks to get right back at home for the first time in over two weeks. 10* CBB Colorado-Oregon ESPN Special with the Oregon Ducks (656) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (655). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-13-20 |
Murray State v. Austin Peay -2.5 |
|
68-71 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Austin Peay Governors (660) minus the points versus the Murray State Racers (659). THE SITUATION: Austin Peay (16-9) has lost two straight games after their 71-63 loss at Belmont on Saturday as a 6.5-point underdog. Murray State (18-6) comes off a 73-65 victory over Texas State as a 4-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOVERNORS MINUS THE POINTS: Austin Peay should respond with a strong effort as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home after a straight-up loss. The Governors return home where they are a perfect 11-0 this season with an average winning margin of +15.2 PPG. Austin Peay makes 51.1% of their shots at home which has generated 86.2 PPG. The Governors have covered the point spread in 7 straight home games after playing a game on the road. Austin Peay is also 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games on their home court overall — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 home games as a favorite or pick ‘em. Murray State had failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Racers go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home.
FINAL TAKE: Murray State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Racers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Austin Peay Governors (660) minus the points versus the Murray State Racers (659). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-13-20 |
Marshall v. Texas-San Antonio +1.5 |
|
63-72 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (674) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (673). THE SITUATION: UTSA (11-14) has lost three of their last four games with their 91-84 loss at Charlotte on Saturday as a 5.5-point underdog. Marshall (12-13) has won their last two games with their 83-79 upset win at home against Louisiana Tech last Saturday as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): UTSA played one of their worst games of the season against the 49ers on Saturday. They made only 39.7% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last eleven games. They also allowed Charlotte to make 57.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five contests. The Roadrunners have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. Additionally, UTSA has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. They return home where they are 8-4 this season with an average winning margin of +12.7 PPG. They are making 47.4% of their shots at home which has resulted in them averaging 84.9 PPG in those contests. The Roadrunners have cord the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Marshall had failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Now the Thundering Herd go back on the road where they are 4-7 while making only 43.9% of their shots. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road when they are the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. UTSA has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Roadrunners have also coved the point spread in 6 straight games at home where they are underdogs of up to six points. 10* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (674) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (673). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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