05-23-19 |
Twins v. Angels OVER 9.5 |
|
16-7 |
Win
|
105 |
6 h 9 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET
Martin Perez is having a great season but now he faces a team that gave him a lot of trouble last season. Perez faced the Angels twice last season and neither start went well at all as the southpaw gave up 14 earned runs in a combined 9 innings! Los Angeles also will have a pitcher on the bump today whom is likely to get rocked. LA starter Matt Harvey has a 6.35 ERA on the season. In his 4 home starts in Anaheim Harvey has an 8.38 ERA this year. The right-hander is facing a surging Twins team in this one. Minnesota has won 7 of its last 8 games and the over is on a 5-2 run in Twins games as they have scored an average of 8.4 runs per game in their last 7 games. Minnesota has registered double digits in hits in 6 of their last 7 games. The Angels have averaged 11.4 hits per game in their last 5 games against Twins pitching. Minnesota is 8-4 to the over this season in road games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs. Los Angeles is 4-1 to the over the last 5 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Per our computer math model this match-up reaches double digits in runs with some big homers included with the breeze blowing out toward left field in this one. Bet the OVER in the Angels game in late afternoon action Thursday
|
05-22-19 |
Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8 |
|
2-5 |
Loss |
-102 |
7 h 31 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, Wednesday at 3:40 PM ET
Weather conditions will not be ideal in San Diego this afternoon but we don't want to let that keep us away from what is a fantastic situational spot here. There is a chance of showers early and possibly even some light rain as this game goes on but it should not be enough precipitation to prevent this game from being completed today. We like to look for situations like this where both pitchers enter a game off an uncharacteristically strong start. Usually there is an immediate regression to the mean as things quickly return to normal. In this particular case, both Arizona's Merrill Kelly and San Diego's Eric Lauer are off starts where they worked into the 6th inning and did not allow an earned run. That is noteworthy because it is resulting in the betting markets giving more respect to these pitchers than they should and, as a result, we have a very low total to work with here. Kelly has a 6.53 ERA on the road this season and the over is 3-1 in those outings. Kelly has given up 21 hits in 16 and 1 / 3 innings over his last 3 starts. Lauer had allowed 10 earned runs in only 8 innings in his prior two starts. Overall, in his last 3 starts the southpaw has given up 19 hits in 13 and 2 / 3 innings. As you can see, both of these pitchers have proven very hittable. The Padres bullpen has been fairly strong this season but the Diamondbacks bullpen ranks as one of the weaker bullpens in the league. Prior to yesterday's under, the Padres had gone over in 3 of their last 4 games. In home games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs, San Diego is 4-2 to the over this season. Arizona is 11-5 to the over in their games against lefties this season and the Diamondbacks are facing a southpaw starter for the 4th time in their last 5 games which also is a plus in terms of the hitters being able to lock in on Lauer's offerings. Bet the OVER in the Padres game in late afternoon action Wednesday
|
05-21-19 |
Reds v. Brewers -124 |
|
3-0 |
Loss |
-124 |
22 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers over Cincinnati Reds, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET
The Reds and Sonny Gray are getting too much respect here from the betting markets. The Brewers opened up in the -140 range and the markets have brought this one down to the -125 range heading into the overnight market. The fact is that this is still Cincinnati we're talking about! The Reds are 19-44 (including 2-9 this season) on the road when their money line is +125 to -125. Cincinnati is 0-4 in Gray's road starts this season and the right-hander enters this outing having struggled to a 5.65 ERA in his last 3 starts. On the other hand, Milwaukee is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 starts that Gio Gonzalez has made. Also, the southpaw has a 1.69 ERA in his four starts this season! The Reds are 35-62 against left-handed starters since the start of the 2017 season. Cincinnati is 5-12 in divisional games this season. Milwaukee is a fantastic 46-17 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since the start of the 2017 season. Also, when playing after a day off the Brewers are 30-16 including a perfect 4-0 this season. Per our computer math model this one turns into a home blowout as Milwaukee improves to 12-5 this season when facing a team with a losing record. Bet the Brewers in evening action Tuesday
|
05-20-19 |
Phillies +127 v. Cubs |
|
5-4 |
Win
|
127 |
11 h 47 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies over Chicago Cubs, Monday at 8:05 PM ET
The Phillies Jake Arrieta is in his 10th MLB season but will be making his first ever start against the Cubs. That's because he started his career in the American League and then when he switched leagues he actually went to the Cubs. That said, there is plenty of motivation here for Arrieta as he faces his former team at Wrigley Field. The only two hitters that Chicago has that have any experience against him are Jason Heyward and Daniel Descalso. The latter of those two is 0 for 8 in his career against Arrieta. With that being said, this is a very favorable match-up for Arrieta as he has had great movement on his pitches early this season and should be able to fool the Cubs hitters at least the first two times through the lineup. After that, don't be surprised if the Phillies bullpen comes in and slams the door shut as they were great in the just completed 3-game sweep of the Rockies. The Philadelphia bullpen also has 12 saves in 15 opportunities this season while the Cubs bullpen has already blown 5 saves in just 12 opportunities. The Phillies arguably have another edge here as they played early yesterday afternoon while the Cubs were battling it out in DC last night in a hard-fought 6-5 win. The Cubs Yu Darvish has some impressive numbers against the Phillies in his career but Franco, Herrera, Hoskins, and Segura are a combined 7 for 14. Couple that with the fact that Harper and Realmuto each crushed 2-run bombs in yesterday's come from behind 7-5 win and you have a very dangerous Phillies lineup for Darvish to deal with. The Cubs right-hander is also without a win in his 4 home starts this season while compiling a 6.38 ERA in those Wrigley Field outings. Chicago had lost 3 of 4 before last night's win. The Phillies enter this game having won 3 straight games overall and also having won 4 of their last 5 road games. All factors considered, there is superb underdog value here with the road team in this one. Bet the Phillies in evening action Monday
|
05-19-19 |
Orioles v. Indians OVER 9.5 |
|
0-10 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 46 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians, Sunday at 1:10 PM ET
Finally warmer weather has arrived in Cleveland and, in fact, it will be downright steamy this afternoon at Progressive Field with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and a southwest wind also aiding the hitters. We expect plenty of runs in this one as Yefry Ramirez is making his first MLB start of this season and has an ERA above 5 in his work out of the bullpen this season. Ramirez made one start at Cleveland last season and got pulverized for 7 earned runs in 3 innings of work. Shane Bieber gets the start for the Indians here and has been hit hard in back to back starts! This includes allowing 4 homers in his most recent start and now he faces the Orioles on an afternoon when wind-aided home run balls are likely given the weather forecast. Before being held to 1 run yesterday, Baltimore had scored 5 or more runs in 3 of their last 4 games against a right-handed starter. The Indians enter this contest having averaged 7 runs per game in their last 4 games as their bats have started to show signs of life just as the weather is warming up. Also, the Orioles bullpen has a 5.97 ERA which ranks them as the worst pen in the American League so far this season. Our computer math model is forecasting this one gets to double digits by the middle innings! With that said, bet the OVER in the Indians game in early afternoon action Sunday
|
05-18-19 |
Astros v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 |
|
7-3 |
Loss |
-108 |
9 h 6 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET
Corbin Martin's major league debut was a success. However, that start was at home versus a Rangers team that is one of the most strikeout-prone teams in the majors. Texas is not known for faring well against pitchers they are seeing for the first time. Now Martin will face a much tougher situation as he is on the road and facing a tough Red Sox team that is also known for crushing the ball at Fenway Park. After a slow start this season, Boston has turned it around as expected and has been one of the hottest teams in the majors. The Red Sox have an incredible .379 on base percentage in the month of May which ranks them #1 in the majors! Off a 3-1 loss yesterday, Boston is very likely to bounce back strong at the plate here. Prior to that defeat the Red Sox had won 12 of their last 15 games and had scored an average of 7.3 runs per game during this hot streak! So, who is the hottest team in May in terms of batting stats? The Astros are hitting .299, slugging .576, and scoring an average of 7 runs per game in the month of May. Given the above statistics it is not a surprise to find that our computer math model is calling for a slugfest at Fenway Saturday. The Red Sox hand the ball to Hector Velazquez for this one and each of his last 3 starts have resulted in an over and he is averaging only about 3 innings per outing in his 6 starts this season! Tough match-up for each of the starting pitchers in this one and these two potent lineups will rule the day in Boston. Bet the OVER in the Red Sox game in early evening action Saturday
|
05-17-19 |
Rays v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 53 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON UNDER: Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, Friday at 7:05 PM ET
The Rays are going with a bullpen game here as Ryne Stanek will start and then quickly give way to the bullpen. Having been off yesterday, this suits Tampa Bay just fine as their bullpen has fresh arms and has a 2.89 ERA on the season which ranks the Rays as one of the best in the majors. Tampa is 7-4 their last 11 games and they have allowed an average of only 2.2 runs per game during this stretch. The Yankees also have been getting strong pitching as they have allowed 3 runs or less in 10 of their last 15 games. Also, New York is starting CC Sabathia in this one and the southpaw is facing a Rays team that has a .379 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season. That ranks Tampa Bay 22nd in the majors! Sabathia allowed just 3 hits in 5 innings against the Rays Saturday and he has held them to 4 hits in his last 10 innings against them. The Yankees are 3-0 in the big lefty's home starts this season as Sabathia has compiled a 1.80 ERA in the Bronx this year. The Rays have stayed under in 10 of 12 games this season when facing a left-handed starter. When off a shutout win this season, Tampa Bay's next game is 4 for 4 to the under. Also, in road games with a total set at 9.5 runs, the Rays have been 3 for 3 to the under this season as well! 9 of 13 Yankees home games this season with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs have resulted in an under. Bet the UNDER in the Yankees game in early evening action Friday
|
05-16-19 |
Cubs v. Reds OVER 8.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 35 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET
This total is only an 8.5 because both Jose Quintana and Luis Castillo are off to strong starts to this season. The result is line value in a spot like this. Yesterday's game totaled 11 runs as there were 5 homers hit. With temperatures rising to the 80 degree mark in Cincinnati today and a light breeze blowing out toward left center field at Great American Ball Park, it will be another game here that gives this venue its well-deserved reputation as playing out like a "bandbox" in the right weather conditions. The fact remains that Great American Ball Park is one of the most hitter friendly venues in the majors and both of these lineups have plenty of experience against the division rival starting pitcher that each is facing today. The Cubs Quintana has a 6.32 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. He allowed 2 homers in his most recent start against the Reds. The last time the southpaw pitched at Cincinnati he got hammered for 4 earned runs on 9 hits in 5 frames! The Reds Castillo has a 5.79 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Cubs and has walked as many as he has struck out in those 3 outings. The fact is that the Chicago lineup has proven to be a tough one for Castillo in recent outings. The over is 5-1 in Reds home games this month and Cincinnati has scored an average of 7.3 runs per game in those half-dozen home games. The Cubs are 13-3 in their last 16 games thanks in part to their lineup scoring average of 5.4 runs per game during this stretch. The over is 13-5-1 in Chicago's road games this season and the over is 9-4-1 when they are off a loss and also 9-4-1 in games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. Our computer math model is forecasting double digits in runs here and we won't hesitate in taking advantage of this low total. Bet the OVER in the Reds game in early evening action Thursday
|
05-15-19 |
Brewers v. Phillies -105 |
|
5-2 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies over Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
The Phillies got drilled 6 to 1 yesterday but are 12-4 this season when off a loss. Though Gio Gonzalez is off to a good start since suiting up for the Brewers, the Phillies are very familiar with him from his days with the Nationals. The last two times the southpaw has pitched at Citizens Bank Park Philadelphia has crushed him to the tune of 9 earned runs in 10 innings of work. He'll be opposed by Jake Arrieta here. Though Arrieta is off a tough start he has been rock solid early this season. The veteran right-hander is 3-1 with a 3.66 ERA in his home starts this season and last season (his first with the Phillies) Arrieta compiled a 3.64 ERA at home. While Citizens Bank Park has been kind to him, as noted above, Gonzalez has been crushed in recent visits. The Brewers are off the big win yesterday but previously had lost 3 straight games while averaging only 2 runs per game in those 3 defeats. Milwaukee is 1-4 this season in road games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs. The Phillies are 4-1 in home games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs. Our computer math model is forecasting that the Phllies improve to 7-1 this season when they are on their home field and coming off a loss! Bet the Phillies in early evening action Wednesday
|
05-14-19 |
Astros v. Tigers OVER 10.5 |
|
11-4 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 17 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET
Wade Miley gets the start for the Astros and he has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 24 consecutive starts! Ranked among traditional starters (in other words, not those 'bullpen starts' often employed by the Rays) that ranks as the longest current streak in the majors. With that said, why would the total set on this game have risen from an opener of 9.5 to a 10.5 across the board as of mid-day Tuesday? Precisely! It is not 'square money' it is 'sharp money' moving this total and it makes perfect sense when you dig a little deeper into this one. For one thing, Miley has found the Tigers to be a nemesis as he has a 6.63 ERA against Detroit in his career. In his most recent start at Comerica Park he allowed 4 earned runs on 8 hits and 4 walks in just 5 innings on the mound. He'll be opposed by Detroit's Ryan Carpenter. The Tigers southpaw has made 7 appearances (6 starts) at the MLB level and has a 7.90 ERA. Major league hitters are hitting .356 against Carpenter! He'll be facing a red hot Astros team that has won 9 of their last 10 games and scored an average of 8.2 runs per game during this hot streak! The Tigers bats have been held in check in each of their last two home games but their 5 prior games as a host saw them average 5 runs per game. The weather will be rather mild today in Detroit with temperatures topping out near 70 degrees. The over is 5-1 this season in Tigers games against left-handed starters. The over is 8-1 in Astros games against teams with a losing record. Per our computer math model, the over improves to 7-0 this season in Houston's Tuesday games. Though the Astros have a strong bullpen the Tigers bullpen ranks among the worst in the majors and Houston will be scoring early, often, and throughout this contest. Bet the OVER in the Tigers game in early evening action Tuesday
|
05-13-19 |
Pirates +155 v. Diamondbacks |
|
3-9 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Pittsburgh Pirates over Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 9:40 PM ET
The Pirates have won 3 straight games and 8 of their last 11 games. The Diamondbacks have lost 3 straight games and 6 of their last 8 games. Pittsburgh lost 4 straight games to Arizona in a series three weeks ago but, as you can see, these teams are currently trending opposite directions. With that being said, there is tremendous underdog line value here with the Bucs. The Pirates have scored 5 or more runs in 8 of their last 11 games. The slumping Diamondbacks have been held to 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 7 games. Arizona has been held to an average of only 2.6 runs per game during this stretch. On the surface here the pitching match-up would appear to favor the Diamondbacks but the Pirates lineup has much more experience against Robbie Ray than Arizona's lineup has against Pittsburgh's Nick Kingham. The Diamondbacks did enjoy some success against Kingham when he came out of the bullpen in last month's series but this will be his first start against them. As for Arizona's Ray, the last two times he has started against the Pirates as a host he has allowed 8 earned runs in just 7 innings of work. Ray's teams have a record of 1-4 in his 5 career starts against Pittsburgh. The Pirates, as a road underdog of +125 to +175, are a fantastic 6-3 this season. The Diamondbacks are a money-burning 5-9 in their last 14 home games. Bet the Pirates in evening action Monday
|
05-12-19 |
Rangers v. Astros OVER 9.5 |
Top |
5-15 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET
How big of a difference is the jump from the minors to the majors in professional baseball? It is actually a very significant difference and that is the key reason that many guys like Corbin Martin (Astros starting pitcher today) struggle when they make that jump. To put it in proper perspective, one can even see this with looking at some statistics from Martin. In his minor league career he has allowed only 9 homers in 179 innings. However, in his only time at the major league level (in spring training this year) Martin allowed 5 homers in only 16 and 1 / 3 innings. In his MLB debut today, Martin is facing a Rangers team that has a solid .456 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching this season. That ranks Texas 7th out of all 30 MLB teams! The Rangers are also starting a right-handed pitcher today. Adrian Sampson gets the call for the road team here and he is facing a Houston teams whose .495 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching ranks them 2nd in the majors and just behind Minnesota in that category. Sampson has pitched well in his 4 relief appearances this season but he has a 6.63 ERA in his 4 appearances as a starter this season! He faces a tough task here as the Astros got to Sampson for 7 hits in just 4 and 1 / 3 innings in his start against them 3 weeks ago. Houston delivered a big win 11-4 win yesterday and the over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games. The over is also 5-2 in the Rangers last 7 games. The over is 11-4 this season when Texas faces a team with a winning record and also the over is 9-2 in day games for the Rangers this season. The over is 6-1-1 in Astros games against teams with a losing record this season and Texas also ranks among the worst bullpens in the majors based on ERA so far this season. The Rangers sticks faced some tough pitching so far in this series but take advantage of a rookie right-hander here while the Astros lineup (7.4 runs per game last 8 games) continues red hot at the plate. Bet the OVER in the Astros game in early afternoon action Sunday
|
05-11-19 |
Phillies -125 v. Royals |
|
7-0 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 44 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET
The Phillies lost at Kansas City yesterday but that doesn't change the fact that the Royals are still one of the worst teams in baseball. Look for a bounce back today as Philadelphia is 11-4 this season when off a loss and the Phillies have a big pitching edge in this match-up. Zach Eflin has a great repertoire of pitches and has been Philadelphia's hottest pitcher. The right-hander has had only one bad start out of his 7 starts this season. In the 6 solid outings he has compiled a sparkling 1.89 ERA. Eflin allowed 1 earned run or less in 4 of those 6 outings and, as you would expect with those quality numbers, the Phillies won all 4 outings. As for Royals starter Brad Keller, he has a respectable ERA on the season but, unlike Eflin, he has been trending downward. The Kansas City right-hander has a 6.48 ERA in his last 3 starts and has been hit hard plus has more walks than strikeouts combined in these 3 outings. The Royals have lost each of Keller's last 3 starts while the Phillies have won each of Eflin's last two starts. KC is 6-14 in night games this season and Philadelphia is 6-3 in games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs this season. Bet the Phillies in early evening action Saturday
|
05-10-19 |
Tigers v. Twins -1.5 |
|
0-6 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 24 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Minnesota (-1.5 runs) over Detroit, Friday at 8:10 PM ET
While we certainly would never lay a -220 price range on the money line we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Minnesota, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -105 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that a Twins win tonight is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Tigers enter tonight's game with a 16-18 record on the season. 15 of Detroit's 18 losses have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Tigers average margin of defeat this season is 4.3 runs per loss! As for the Twins, they enter tonight's game with an 11-5 record in home games this season. 9 of those 11 home wins have come by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Also, 10 of Minnesota's 11 wins since April 22nd have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Twins average margin of victory this season is 3.9 runs per win! Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Tigers are 0-3 in Tyson Ross' road starts this season. The Detroit right-hander recently returned from paternity leave and still was struggling so they even moved this start back a day trying to get him straightened out. The fact is that Tyson Ross is struggling badly including an 8.03 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. Minnesota goes with red hot Jake Odorizzi on the bump tonight. The Twins right-hander has been dominating. In his last two starts he has allowed NO earned runs on only 6 hits in 13 innings while striking out 15 batters. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting a Twins win by a margin of 3 to 4 runs tonight! Detroit is 12-36 the last 48 times they've been a road dog in a range of +175 to +250. The Twins are 18-4 the last 22 times (including 5-0 this season) in home games in which they are a favorite in a range of -175 to -250. Bet Minnesota -1.5 runs in evening action Friday
|
05-09-19 |
Mariners v. Yankees OVER 9 |
|
1-3 |
Loss |
-125 |
6 h 57 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees, Thursday at 6:35 PM ET
The Mariners are starting Mike Leake in this one. He allowed 4 earned runs in his only career start at Yankee Stadium. Leake enters this start having allowed 9 homers in his 4 road starts this season. In his last 3 starts overall the Seattle right-hander has a compiled a 6.35 ERA as he has struggled throughout this stretch. The Yankees counter with southpaw J.A. Happ. The lefty will be facing a Seattle team that has a .349 on base percentage against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks the Mariners #2 in the majors in that category. Happ is 0-3 with a 7.65 ERA in his home starts this season and all but one of the four home outings has resulted in an over. The Yankees lefty faced the Mariners once last season and allowed 7 earned runs on 10 hits in less than 4 innings of work and that start was right here at Yankee Stadium. Our computer math model is forecasting double digits in runs here which will improve the over to 8-4 this season in Yankees games against teams with a winning record. The Mariners are 12-2 to the over in games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs this season. Also, Seattle is an incredible 9-0 to the over in their games against left-handed starters this season. Bet the OVER in the Yankees game in early evening action Thursday
|
05-08-19 |
Mets v. Padres OVER 8 |
|
2-3 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 13 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: New York Mets at San Diego Padres, Wednesday at 3:40 PM ET
The Mets are starting Wilmer Font whom they recently acquired from the Rays. As a result, New York is planning to make this a "bullpen game" as Font likely can't go more than 75 pitches, if even that. The problem with that is this is the Mets not the Rays! While "bullpen games" have proven to be successful for Tampa Bay, New York's relief corps has compiled a 4.87 ERA on the season to rank among the worst in the majors thus far. With this total dropping from an 8.5 to an 8 we like the value here with the over. That's because, though the Mets pitching situation is a precarious one here, their bats should come to life. New York will be facing southpaw Matt Strahm and the Mets are hitting .271 against left-handed pitching this season. That high mark ranks the Mets among the top teams in the majors against lefties. As for the Padres sticks, they have been on fire at the plate. Yesterday's 7-6 San Diego loss (a good sign as well for the Mets sticks) also marked the 9th time in the Padres last 12 games that they have scored at least 4 runs. Of course getting each team to 4 runs here guarantees us of a winning ticket and, as you can see, the odds favor that happening given the pitching situation here. San Diego has averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game on 10 hits per game in their last 6 contests. The over is 10-5-1 this season when the Mets are off a win and New York is also 4-2 to the over in games against a left-handed starter. Bet the OVER in the Padres game in late afternoon action Wednesday
|
05-07-19 |
White Sox v. Indians OVER 8.5 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-106 |
6 h 13 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians, Tuesday at 6:10 PM ET
Early yesterday afternoon the first totals set on this game were a 9.5 and now we've seen that number dip to an 8.5 this morning. Yes it will be cool in Cleveland with the wind blowing in at Progressive Field. However, this total dropping to an 8.5 is a great value here when you consider a number of factors. For starters, getting each team to 4 runs guarantees us of a win as the game would then end with no less than 9 runs (a 5-4 final). How likely is it that each teams gets to 4 here? Prior to holding the Indians to 1 run yesterday, the White Sox had allowed 4 or more runs in 6 straight games. Only 1 of Chicago's last 7 games has resulted in an under. Cleveland has allowed 4 or more runs in 7 of their last 8 games. The over is 3-0 in the Indians last 3 home games. The over is 14-5 when the White Sox face a right-handed starter and Chicago is 6-1 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Lucas Giolito gets the start for the White Sox and he has shown a very interesting trend in his young career. He has great numbers against the Royals and has struggled badly against the rest of the majors. That may seem like a strange fact but the numbers don't lie and that trend has continued this season. The past 3 seasons Giolito went 3-0 with a 2.35 ERA in his 6 starts against the Royals. Against the rest of the majors he went 10-17 with a 6.07 ERA. This season Giolito has a 1.93 ERA against Kansas City. In his other 3 starts he has a 7.53 ERA. Jefry Rodriguez gets the start here for the Indians and he shows good numbers to the betting markets. However, he faced the Royals and Marlins in his only 2 starts this season. KC's .245 batting average ranks in the lower half of the majors. Miami's .220 batting average ranks near the very bottom of the majors. Now Rodriguez faces a White Sox team that has averaged scoring 5.2 runs per game in its last 10 games. Bet the OVER in the Indians game in early evening action Tuesday
|
05-06-19 |
Marlins v. Cubs OVER 7 |
|
6-5 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs,Monday at 8:05 PM ET
With the Marlins well-earned reputation as a weak-hitting team and the fact it will be cool with the wind blowing in at Wrigley Field this evening, a very low total has been set on this game. Per our computer math model, the total set at 7 runs will prove to be too low! The Cubs were the top hitting team in the majors last week as they had a slugging percentage of .562 and scored an average of 8 runs per game. Chicago should remain hot at the plate considering Miami's Sandy Alcantara has struggled on the mound this season and the Cubs pounded him for 5 earned runs in 6 innings 3 weeks ago in Florida. Chicago's Cole Hamels had a very strong start at Miami in that same game (opposed by Alcantara). However, the Cubs left-hander had allowed 9 earned runs in 9 innings in his two most recent starts versus the Marlins. Miami's Alfaro, Granderson, Herrera, Prado, Rojas and Walker have combined to go 17 of 47 (.362 batting average!) against Hamels. Don't be surprised when the Marlins put a few runs on the board tonight while the Cubs pound Alcantara and a Marlins bullpen that ranks as one of the worst in the majors! The over is 28-16 when Miami is a road dog in a range of +175 to +250. The over is 12-5 in Chicago's night games. Bet the OVER in the Cubs game in evening action Monday
|
05-05-19 |
Red Sox v. White Sox OVER 9.5 |
Top |
9-2 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox,Sunday at 2:10 PM ET
The White Sox are hitting .263 in home games this season and that ranks them 3rd in the American League! After getting drilled 15-2 yesterday, look for Chicago to deliver a little more offense today as the over is 12-3 this season in games following a White Sox loss. As for the Red Sox, a turnaround was on tap after a slow start to the season as there is simply too much talent in Boston for the slump to continue. Sure enough, Boston has now won 5 of its last 6 games and is on top of all key categories in terms of their offensive production this week. The Red Sox are leading in batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, and runs scored for this week and we look for them to wrap up the week strong against Dylan Covey. The White Sox right-hander has gone no more than 4 and 1 / 3 innings in any of his appearances in the majors or minors this season. Covey is only getting this start because of the injury to Carlos Rodon. In his MLB career, Covey is 5-22 with a 6.11 ERA! The Red Sox counter with Rick Porcello in this match-up. Though he has looked better in his last two starts, Porcello faced the struggling bats of the A's and Tigers and both those starts were at home. Now the Boston right-hander is back on the road where he is winless with an 8.99 ERA in his 3 starts this season. All 3 of those games went over the total and, per our computer math model, this one will too! The over is 12-5 this season when Chicago faces a right-handed starter. Bet the OVER in the White Sox game in early afternoon action Sunday
|
05-04-19 |
Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 8.5 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 32 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: St Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs,Saturday at 4:05 PM ET
The Cubs Yu Darvish is off a strong start but it was actually the first time this season that he has completed 6 innings in an outing. Darvish, even including the strong outing, still has a losing record on the season and a 5.02 ERA. We look for the Cardinals bats to bounce back. They have had a tough situation the past two games as they had a day game Thursday pushed back to being a night game after lengthy rain delays and then had to travel to Chicago for yesterday's day game. As a result, St Louis wasn't the team we're use to seeing in either of their past two games. Now, after a regular routine after yesterday's early game and a chance to rest up for today's game, the bats return to normal for the Cardinals. St Louis is hitting .276 against right-handed pitching this season and that ranks them 1st in the majors out of all 30 teams. The Cubs should also perform very well at the plate here. The Cardinals Michael Wacha is 4-9 with a 6.58 ERA in his 17 careers starts against Chicago. The Cubs have pounded him for 14 earned runs in 13 and 1 / 3 innings the last 3 times Wacha has faced them. The over is 3-1-1 in Wacha's 5 starts this season. St Louis is 6-3 to the over when off a loss. Chicago is off back to back shutout wins but prior to yesterday's 4-0 win the over was on a 6-2 streak in Cubs games. Bet the OVER in the Cubs game in early afternoon action Saturday
|
05-03-19 |
Braves -153 v. Marlins |
|
7-2 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 41 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves over Miami Marlins, Friday at 7:10 PM ET
This line is currently in the -155 price range as of mid-day Friday. Even in this price range there is simply too much value to pass up on as we get a chance to fade the worst team in baseball at a very fair price. The Marlins are the only team in the majors that has yet to reach double digits in wins as they are 9-21 on the season. Miami is dead last in the majors for runs scored and has a paltry .228 batting average on the season. The Braves have a .270 batting average in road games this season and that ranks them 6th out of all 30 teams in the majors. Jose Urena gets the start for the Marlins here and there is bad blood between he and the Braves after he was ejected for intentionally throwing at Ronald Acuna the last time he faced Atlanta. Additionally, Miami is a horrible 2-9 in his 11 career starts against the Braves and they have pounded him for 9 earned runs in 10 innings in their most recent match-ups with him. Atlanta counters with Kevin Gausman tonight and he is 3-0 with a dominant 1.00 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Marlins. Miami is 1-5 in Urena's starts this season and enter this game on an overall 1-4 run their last 5 games. The Braves enter this contest 3-2 their last 5 games overall and 3-2 their last 5 road games. Lay the price as Gausman dominates the Marlins again while Urena's struggles against the Braves continue. Bet the Braves in early evening action Friday
|
05-02-19 |
Red Sox v. White Sox OVER 8.5 |
|
4-6 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 39 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox,Thursday at 8:10 PM ET
Red Sox southpaw David Price matched up against White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito in this one. Though Price has been pitching well, the White Sox rank among top teams in the majors for batting average against left-handed pitching this season. Also, Chicago's .271 batting average in home games ranks them #2 in the American League. We're going to take advantage of the low total here as Price is being over-valued and the weather (chilly) is helping to keep this total below where is should be. In Price's road starts against the White Sox in his career he has a losing record and an unimpressive 4.41 ERA. As for Giolito, he is facing a Red Sox lineup that is heating up after a slow start to the season. Boston has scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 7 games. Also, Giolito entered this season with a 6.16 ERA in home games and 6.25 ERA in night games in his career. These trends have continued this season as Giolito has a 6.43 ERA in home starts and he gave up 6 runs (4 earned) in 5 innings in his only start under the lights this season. Also, he is returning from injury here and is unlikely to be sharp as he makes his first start in two weeks. The Red Sox are 5-2 to the over as a road fave in a range of -125 to -175 this season and Boston is 4-0 to the over in Thursday games this year. The White Sox are 3-1 to the over in Giolito's starts this season. Bet the OVER in the White Sox game in evening action Thursday
|
05-01-19 |
Tigers v. Phillies -1.5 |
|
3-7 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Philadelphia (-1.5 runs) over Detroit, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
While we certainly would never lay a -220 price range on the money line we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Philadelphia, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -105 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that a Phillies win tonight is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Tigers enter tonight's game with a 13-14 record on the season. 11 of Detroit's 14 losses have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Tigers average margin of defeat this season is 3.3 runs per loss! As for the Phillies, they enter tonight's game with an 11-6 record in home games this season. 13 of Philadelphia's 16 wins have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Phillies average margin of victory this season is 4.3 runs per win! Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Tigers are 0-2 in Daniel Norris' last two road starts including his first away from home this season. Norris has allowed 9 earned runs in 9 and 2 / 3 innings spanning those two road starts. Also, the Detroit left-hander had his rotation spot moved up a day due to Tyson Ross going on paternity leave. Of course this could effect the timing of Norris. Philadelphia goes with Aaron Nola on the bump tonight. The Phillies right-hander is back on track after a rough start to the season. In his last two starts he has allowed only 4 earned runs in 12 and 1 / 3 innings while striking out 13 batters. Of course he was one of the best pitchers in the majors last season and a return to improved form is a great sign for he and the Phillies. Look for Philadelphia to bounce back strong after last night's 3-1 loss. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting a Phillies win by a margin of 3 to 4 runs tonight! Detroit is 2-6 this season in games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. The Phillies are 7-3 this season in home games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. Bet Philadelphia -1.5 runs in early evening action Wednesday
|
04-30-19 |
Rockies v. Brewers OVER 8.5 |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 29 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers,Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET
Being located in Madison, WI of course we are well aware of the fact that Milwaukee slugger Christian Yelich tweaked his back Sunday and did not play Monday and may not play Tuesday either. However, that is factored into this total and the fact the O/U is an 8.5 is offering great value. The Brewers O/U is 5-0 this season in home games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. Also, even if Yelich does not play tonight, his replacement Ben Gamel has been red hot at the plate. He has reached base in 7 of his last 10 plate appearances with 4 hits (2 for extra bases) and 3 walks. Of course when you're getting on base 70% of the time it is not a surprise to hear that Gamel also has scored 4 runs in his last 3 games! The Brewers should have very little trouble with the offerings of Colorado's German Marquez. The Rockies right-hander has allowed just 5 earned runs in his last 2 starts but he has been very fortunate (which also is leading to O/U value here) because Marquez has been hammered for 18 hits in the 12 innings spanning those two outings. Per our computer math model Marquez will get roughed up here and so too will Jhoulys Chacin. The Milwaukee right-hander has not been himself on the mound recently as he is winless in his last 3 starts while compiling a 9.53 ERA! The Brewers have scored 5 or more runs in 6 of their last 9 games. Before being held to just 1 run yesterday, the Rockies had scored 4 or more runs in 12 of 13 prior games. With the total at 8.5 we can guarantee a winner by each team getting to 4 runs and we don't foresee that being a problem for either lineup. As you can see per the above, recent data supports that as well. Look for this one to get to double digits in runs scored. The over was 4-0 in Colorado's 4 road games prior to yesterday's game staying under the total. The high-scoring ways resume in this one. Bet the OVER in the Milwaukee game in early evening action Tuesday
|
04-29-19 |
A's v. Red Sox OVER 9 |
|
4-9 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 26 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Oakland A's at Boston Red Sox, Monday at 7:10 PM ET
The A's rank among the top teams in the majors for slugging percentage (.489) against left-handed pitching. The Red Sox are starting southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez Monday and he allowed 6 earned runs in less than 4 innings in Oakland earlier this month. Seeing them again at hitter-friendly Fenway Park a little over 3 weeks later is unlikely to help matters for Rodriguez. Speaking of the ball park being a factor, Frankie Montas gets the start here for the Athletics and it will be his first ever appearance at Fenway Park. The right-hander faced the Red Sox twice out of the bullpen two years ago but neither appearance was in Boston. Look for Montas first ever start against Boston to be a tough one here. We're getting some value in this one because the Red Sox have under-performed at the plate early this season plus Montas has a low ERA on the campaign. That is hiding the fact that he allowed 9 hits in less than 6 innings against the Rangers in his most recent start. Also, Oakland's bullpen has a 5.23 ERA in road games this season while Boston's bullpen has a 5.20 ERA in home games on the year. While it is true the Boston sticks are off back to back tough games they faced tough hurlers in the form of Charlie Morton and Tyler Glasnow. Montas is nowhere close to having the stuff that those two pitchers have. Also, prior to those two games the Red Sox sticks were certainly enjoying a resurgence at home as they scored an average of 9 runs per game in their two previous home games. Per our computer math model the Red Sox are going to get to Montas early and often while the A's enjoy another successful outing (just like April 4th) against Rodriguez. Only 4 of Oakland's 12 road games have resulted in an under this season and the high scoring trend for the A's away from home resumes here. Also note the A's bullpen got too much extra work with yesterday's game going 13 innings. That could leave Oakland a little short on arms behind Montas tonight. Bet the OVER in the Red Sox game in early evening action Monday
|
04-28-19 |
Rangers v. Mariners OVER 9 |
Top |
14-1 |
Win
|
101 |
6 h 31 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET
The Mariners bullpen has a 4.92 ERA which ranks them 12th out of 15 teams in the AL. The Rangers bullpen? Even worse! Texas has a 5.13 bullpen ERA and only the downtrodden Orioles pen has a higher ERA than that among AL teams. The bullpens are likely to play a key role in this one too because we don't expect either starting pitcher to last too long. Seattle starter Erik Swanson had a successful MLB starting debut against the Indians but, like so many rookie hurlers, he took a major step back in his next start. Swanson allowed 5 runs (4 earned) and gave up 2 homers (and this was at pitcher friendly Petco Park in San Diego) as he failed to get out of the 6th inning. Now Swanson goes from facing Indians and Padres lineups that rank near the bottom of the majors to facing a Rangers team that's .491 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching ranks #2 out of the 30 teams in MLB! As for Texas starter Lance Lynn, he'll be facing a Mariners team that is averaging 6 runs per game and 2 home runs per game on the young season. Lynn had a 4.77 ERA last season and has a 6.51 ERA so far this season. Last year he went 5-7 with a 6.01 ERA in his road starts. Also, in afternoon starts, Lynn went 3-5 with a 5.50 ERA last season. He has seen his better years for sure and the Mariners lineup will be in bounce back mode after scoring just 1 run yesterday. The last two times that Seattle was held to 1 run or less in their prior game they absolutely exploded in their next game (11 runs one time and 14 runs the next time). Once again in this rare situation, look for the Mariners to come up big at the plate but the Rangers have scored 5 or more runs in 11 of their last 15 games and, per our computer math model, Texas will also have a huge day at the plate. Bet the OVER in the Mariners game in late afternoon action Sunday
|
04-27-19 |
Cubs v. Diamondbacks UNDER 10 |
|
9-1 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 7 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON UNDER: Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET
The markets have gotten a little ahead of themselves here and the result is great line value on the other side of the O/U move in this NL match-up. This total opened up at a 9 and it is now a 10. It is rare, other than at Coors Field, that a National League total is the biggest O/U on the board and the fact is that the markets have over-reacted here. Yu Darvish gets the start for the Cubs and he has been proven to be a much better pitcher at home than away in recent years. From 2016 to 2018 his ERA was a full 2 runs lower away from home. Darvish compiled a 2.74 ERA and held opponents to a .199 BAA the past 3 seasons in his road games. The Chicago right-hander made one start against the Diamondbacks and it was at Chase Field and he struck out 10 in 5 innings. After striking out 7 Dbacks at Wrigley Field Saturday against them he now has 17 strikeouts in his last 10 innings versus Arizona. The Diamondbacks will have Zack Godley on the mound and he has proven to be much tougher at home than on the road in recent seasons! In 2017 Godley held opponents to a .198 batting average in his dozen home starts. In 2018 the Dbacks right-hander had a respectable 3.92 ERA in his home outings while holding opponents to a .241 batting average. Godley has a 3.12 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Cubs and has struck out 19 in the 17 and 1 / 3 innings spanning those 3 starts. The Cubs have averaged just 3.3 runs per game their last 6 games. Chicago has been held to 8 hits or less in 8 straight games! Considering those facts as well as the expectation of a very strong start from Darvish here and we have great value with the under in this match-up. Bet the UNDER in the Diamondbacks game in evening action Saturday
|
04-26-19 |
Angels v. Royals OVER 8.5 |
|
5-1 |
Loss |
-120 |
7 h 18 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals, Friday at 8:15 PM ET
The wind is expected to be blowing out to left field for this one. The opener on the O/U was a 9 but some 8.5 quickly became available on this one as well. Considering the weather, the pitching match-up as well as the recent trending of these teams, value is aplenty with this low total. Mild temperatures in Kansas City expected this evening and favorable wind direction too. The Royals are 4-1 to the over in their last 5 games. Kansas City is off a 10-2 win Wednesday on the road. The Royals have scored 8 or more runs in 2 of their last 3 home games. On the season, KC is 9-2-1 to the over in games played at Kauffman Stadium. When playing after an off day, the Royals are 3-0 to the over this season. The Angels are 15-7-1 to the over as a road favorite in a range of -125 to -175. Los Angeles is off an 11-5 win yesterday and that was their 5th over in their last 6 games. LA has averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game their last 8 games. Though the Angels bullpen has been solid this season, the Royals bullpen has been one of the worst in the majors. Kansas City's bullpen is 2-8 with a 5.46 ERA and has blown 8 of 12 save opportunities this season. Danny Duffy gets the start for the Royals and this is his first start of the season as he has been dealing with shoulder issues that began at the very beginning of spring training this year. The Angels counter with Tyler Skaggs and he is returning from an ankle strain that has kept him out for two weeks. The injury was to his left ankle and, being a southpaw, that is the foot he pushes off with and needs the most strength from. Don't be surprised if both these pitchers show some rust and are a little off with their location as they are both trying to return from injury. Bet the OVER in the Royals game in evening action Friday
|
04-25-19 |
Dodgers v. Cubs OVER 8 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 28 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs, Thursday at 2:20 PM ET
It will be cool but not cold for this one at Wrigley Field as temperatures will be near 60 degrees. Also, even though the wind is blowing in it is a very light breeze. With that said, there is excellent line value here because the weather is one of the reasons this total is being held down at an 8 in the early market. The fact is that both Jon Lester and Ross Stripling can be expected to struggle here and behind them are two of the worst bullpens in the majors so far this season based on ERA. Both the Cubs pen and Dodgers pen have combined ERAs north of 5.00 so far this season! Stripling faced the Cubs twice last season and was fortunate the damage wasn't worse as Chicago got to him for 15 hits (including 2 homers) in 11 innings of work. As for Jon Lester, he is returning from a stint on the disabled list due to a hamstring injury. Those injuries can be particularly tough for a pitcher and, though he had some early season success before the injury he wasn't as dominating as his low ERA might suggest. Lester did get pounded in spring training this year and then, in his early season action, he benefited from facing the Rangers and Pirates as those teams rank near the bottom of the majors against left-handed pitching this season. In his other start he allowed 2 homers against the Braves. Now Lester faces a Dodgers team whose .339 on base percentage against lefties ranks them 9th out of all 30 teams. Also, in day games this season Los Angeles has a phenomenal .608 slugging percentage which is #1 in the majors. The Cubs .360 on base percentage in day games this season ranks them #1 in the National League! You can see why our computer math model is calling for plenty of baserunners and scoring opportunities in this game and the forecast here is for double digits in runs scored. The over is 7-3 this season when LA is off a loss, 5-2 in day games for Los Angeles, and 6-1 in Dodgers games against left-handed starters. Bet the OVER in the Cubs game in afternoon action Thursday
|
04-24-19 |
Phillies v. Mets +115 |
|
6-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 59 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON New York Mets over Philadelphia Phillies, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET
The Phillies Vincent Velasquez has decent numbers on the season but did allow 7 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start. Also, he is 1-4 with a 4.58 ERA in his 8 starts against the Mets the past 3 seasons. Philadelphia is a mess right now. Yesterday's shutout loss drops them to 0-3 in their last 3 games and though it may be tempting to back them to bounce back off a shutout loss, Philadelphia is a poor 6-14 when coming off a shutout loss. Additionally, the Phillies have been held to 3 or less runs in 7 of their past 8 road games. They just aren't hitting the ball well at all and the losses of Odubel Herrera and Jean Segura to injury have really hurt the lineup. To add insult to injury (literally), another hot stick recently got hurt too as Scott Kingery was so hot at the plate the Phillies had moved him into a starting role and then he went down with an injury. That is why, even though Jason Vargas has struggled early this season, the Mets should hold the upper hand in this match-up. In road games against left-handed starters this season the Phillies are 0-3 and have scored an average of just 2 runs per game. Vargas had a bad start versus Atlanta this season where he didn't make it out of the first inning but he has a 3.00 ERA in his other two starts this season. The Mets are 3-0 in Vargas starts against the Phillies in his career and he has compiled a 2.76 ERA in those outings. New York is 10-4 in night games this season and get another W under the lights against the slumping Phillies tonight. Bet the Mets in early evening action Wednesday
|
04-23-19 |
Marlins v. Indians -1.5 |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-103 |
6 h 20 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Cleveland (-1.5 runs) over Miami, Tuesday at 6:10 PM ET
While we certainly would never lay a -210 price range on the money line we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Cleveland, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -110 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that an Indians win tonight is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Marlins enter tonight's game with a 6-16 record on the season. 12 of Miami's 16 losses have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Marlins average margin of defeat this season is an incredible 4.3 runs per loss! As for the Indians, they enter tonight's game with a 12-9 record on the season. 9 of Cleveland's 12 wins have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Indians average margin of victory this season is nearly 3 runs per win! Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Marlins Pablo Lopez is 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA in his two road starts this season. Cleveland goes with Carlos Carrasco on the bump tonight. The Indians right-hander had one rare sub-par outing in his last 3 but in the other two he dominated and struck out 24 in 12 innings! Carrasco also dominated the Marlins in his only career start against them. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting an Indians win by a margin of 2 to 3 runs tonight! Miami is 1-10 this season in games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. The Indians are 4-1 this season in games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. Bet Cleveland -1.5 runs in early evening action Tuesday
|
04-22-19 |
Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 |
|
5-13 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 38 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals, Monday at 7:45 PM ET
The wind is expected to be blowing out to left field for this one. The opener on the O/U was a 9 but a lot of 8.5 quickly became available when this one first came on the board this morning. Considering the weather, the pitching match-up, and the season series between these teams value is aplenty with this low total. The first 7 meetings between these teams have resulted in only 2 unders. Also, only 1 of the 7 games totaled less than 9 runs! The Brewers will be seeing Jack Flaherty for the 3rd time already this season and they have given him a lot of trouble. Flaherty has allowed 9 earned runs in a combined 7 innings in his two starts versus Milwaukee this season! St Louis could be going to the pen early as Flaherty is averaging less than 5 innings per start this season. The Brewers also might be into their pen early because they are giving Adrian Houser his first MLB start today. The right-hander has been excellent in his three starts this season at AAA San Antonio but now makes the jump to the majors. Throughout his minor league career this is really the first time he has had any significant success above the Single A level. At the AA level in 2015 Houser had a 4.50 ERA. In 2016 at the AA level he went 3-7 with a 5.25 ERA. After not pitching above the Single A level in 2017, he returned in 2018 and went 2-4 with a 5.03 ERA and a .305 BAA at the AA/AAA level. The point is that Houser has consistently been hit hard in the minors and 3 good starts early this season doesn't mean he is necessarily ready for making his first ever MLB start on the road against a Cardinals lineup that has averaged 6.6 runs per game their last 10 games and reached double digits in hits in 7 of those 10 games. The over is 7-2-1 in the Cards last 10 games. Against right-handed starters this season, Cardinals games are 12-4 to the over. Our computer math model is calling for double digits in runs in weather conditions favoring the hitters Monday evening at Busch Stadium. Bet the OVER in the Cardinals game in evening action Monday
|
04-21-19 |
Phillies v. Rockies OVER 11 |
|
1-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET
The Rockies rested Arenado and Desmond yesterday but both those guys should be back in the lineup today which certainly strengthens the Colorado order for Sunday. The Phillies have called up Jerad Eickhoff to get this start. He has been hit very hard by the Rockies and compiled a 7.94 ERA in his three starts against him. With high temperatures near 70 today in Denver the ball is going to be carrying very well at Coors Field. There were 13 runs scored in this match-up last night and we expect at least that this afternoon. Colorado's Jon Gray shows the betting markets good numbers this season but it is important to note that 3 of his starts came against the Marlins, Giants, and Padres. Those 3 teams are at the bottom of the majors in team batting average this season. In the only start where Gray faced a top tier lineup this season he struggled badly. He allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings against the Dodgers. Now Gray faces a Philadelphia team that has totaled 12 or more hits in 6 of its last 9 games. The Phillies rank 4th in the NL for batting average against right-handed pitchers this season. The Phillies .355 on base percentage against right-handed batters this season ranks 3rd in the majors! The over is 6-3 in Phillies games against teams with a losing record this season. Bet the OVER in the Rockies game in afternoon action Sunday
|
04-20-19 |
Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8 |
Top |
6-5 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 34 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET
The Red Sox Rick Porcello is not only struggling more than any other Boston starter, he has been one of the worst starters in the majors. Porcello is 0-3 this season with an 11.11 ERA and 3,00 WHIP on the year. When a pitcher is allowing an average of 3 baserunners per inning it doesn't take long to get into trouble. Facing the Rays is unlikely to help Porcello. The Red Sox right-hander has allowed 9 runs (7 earned) in his last two starts at Tampa Bay. The other starting pitcher today is also likely to struggle. Tampa hands the ball to Charlie Morton and he has good numbers this season but his last two starts have been quite short and he now faces a lineup that has had plenty of success against him. Morton has a 7.82 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Red Sox and he gave up 19 hits (including 3 homers) in just 12 and 2 / 3 innings spanning these 3 outings versus Boston. Also, all these starts were recent - all having come since June of 2018. While it is true that the Boston bats have struggled early this season, they have scored 4 or more runs in 6 of their last 9 games. The Red Sox also are building confidence at the plate after scoring 6 runs yesterday and now facing a hurler that they've enjoyed plenty of success against. As for the Tampa Bay bats, they have scored 4 or more runs in 9 of their last 10 games. The Rays have averaged 6.5 runs per game during this 10 game stretch. The over is 7-2 in Tampa's last 9 games overall. The over is 7-3 in the Red Sox last 10 games that had a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. In this specific match-up, the total opened up at 8.5 and has come down to an 8 in most books this morning. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams in Tampa Bay. Bet the OVER in the Rays game in early evening action Saturday
|
04-19-19 |
Astros v. Rangers OVER 9.5 |
|
7-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
15 h 1 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers, Friday at 8:05 PM ET
The Astros Justin Verlander is off a strong start but has had his share of recent struggles against the Rangers. In his last two starts against Texas, the Houston right-hander has allowed 6 earned runs on 15 hits (including 3 homers) in 19 innings of work. The Rangers come into this game with plenty of confidence at the plate as Texas has won 4 straight games and has also scored 5 or more runs in 6 straight games! You can see why our computer math model is calling for the Rangers to score their fair share of runs tonight. As for the Astros sticks, they are likely to get to Drew Smyly early and often here. He only allowed 1 earned run in his first start against them early this month but the left-hander was fortunate as he only went 3 innings in that start and allowed an average of 2 base-runners per inning! Since that start he has allowed 8 earned runs in only 8 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last two starts! The Astros are off a loss Wednesday in a what was a rare poor performance at the plate. Houston entered that game on a long winning streak which included averaging 6.4 runs per game in their 9 straight wins from the 6th to the 16th. Behind Smyly is a Rangers bullpen that has an unimpressive 4.62 ERA and .260 BAA this season. Plenty of runs on a night when the wind is also expected to be blowing out toward right-center at a ballpark that is known for being hitter-friendly. Bet the OVER in the Rangers game in evening action Friday
|
04-18-19 |
Dodgers v. Brewers +113 |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
13 h 30 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers over Los Angeles Dodgers, Thursday at 8:05 PM ET
The Brewers just faced Julio Urias at Dodger Stadium and gave him plenty of trouble. Urias has been inconsistent early this season and won't even be in the rotation once Rich Hill returns which is likely soon. The fact the Brewers got to the southpaw Urias is not a big surprise considering Milwaukee is the #1 hitting team in the NL against left-handers this season for both batting average (.308) and slugging percentage (.556). We like backing the Brewers here at home off a home loss while the Dodgers are off a home win and then had to travel east for this game. Zach Davies gets the start for Milwaukee and has pitched very well early this season. Though his overall stats from last season are not that impressive he did pitch very well for the Brewers when he returned in September. He was much improved and has seemed to carry that positive momentum right into this season. Davies has a 1.53 ERA this season while Urias has a 5.27 ERA so far this season. The Brewers got some measure of post-season revenge by taking 2 out of 3 at Dodger Stadium last weekend but the fact they lost the last game of the series didn't sit well with them. Also, this is their first home opportunity versus the Dodgers since LA ended their playoff dreams right here at Miller Park on October 20th. That means you're going to get a fully focused effort from the home dog Brewers in this one and a great atmosphere thanks to the home crowd. Bet the Brewers in evening action Thursday
|
04-17-19 |
Indians v. Mariners OVER 7.5 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 23 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET
This total was set at an 8.5 when numbers were first posted Tuesday afternoon. Now this total is set at a 7.5 across the board on Wednesday morning and we are jumping on this value number. The Indians Carlos Carrasco is a great pitcher but he is struggling early this season and facing the Mariners at T-Mobile Park is unlikely to help matters. The hard-throwing right-hander has a 12.60 ERA so far this season and Seattle's .515 slugging percentage is #1 in the American League. Also, Carrasco has a 5.00 ERA and has allowed 4 homers in his last 3 starts at Seattle. The Mariners also have a pitching concern tonight as veteran Wade LeBlanc is out with a strained oblique so Erik Swanson will be making his first ever MLB start. The rookie had a 6.23 ERA in spring training and has a 9.00 ERA working out of the bullpen so far in the majors. The Indians sticks are starting to turn the corner after a slow start this season. The Tribe have averaged 6 runs per game and 10.3 hits per game in their last 3 contests. The over is 14-4 in Mariners games this season including 6-1 in day games (this game starts at 2:40 Pacific Time in Seattle). Though the Mariners bats have cooled recently, facing a struggling Carrasco prone to giving up the long ball (1 homer in each start this season, and 2 homers in each of his last 2 starts versus Seattle), we like the odds of this one getting over the low total rather easily. In fact, our computer math model predicts double digits in runs here! Bet the OVER in the Mariners game Wednesday
|
04-16-19 |
Orioles v. Rays -1.5 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Tampa Bay (-1.5 runs) over Baltimore, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET
While we certainly would never lay a -250 price range on the money line we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Tampa Bay, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -120 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that a Rays win tonight is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Orioles enter tonight's game with a 7-10 record on the season. All 10 of Baltimore's losses have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, Baltimore's average margin of defeat this season is an incredible 5 runs per loss! As for the Rays, they enter tonight's game with a 12-4 record on the season. All 12 of Tampa Bay's wins have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Rays average margin of victory this season is an amazing 4 runs per win! Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Orioles Dylan Bundy is winless with an 8.75 ERA in his 3 starts this season. The Baltimore right-hander has allowed 6 homers in his last 2 starts! Tampa goes with red-hot Tyler Glasnow on the bump tonight. The Rays right-hander is a perfect 3-0 with an 0.53 ERA in his 3 starts this season. Glasnow has allowed less HITS (11) than Bundy has allowed RUNS (12) in comparing their 3 starts this season! Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting a Rays win by a margin of 4 to 5 runs tonight! Bet Tampa Bay -1.5 runs in early evening action Tuesday
|
04-15-19 |
Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 9 |
|
7-10 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: St Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, Monday at 7:40 PM ET
Dakota Hudson shut out the Dodgers in his last start but he couldn't complete 5 innings and was fortunate he held LA scoreless. Hudson allowed 6 hits and 4 walks for a total of 10 baserunners in less than 5 innings of work. This followed his first start that also saw him in trouble often and that was at Milwaukee. Facing the Brewers again Monday after allowing 3 homers in just 4 and 1 / 3 innings against them two weeks ago is unlikely to help Hudson. This is not a good match-up for him and he has labored in each of his first two starts. The Cardinals bullpen has been solid this season but will be asked to do too much here and certainly did have some struggles with the Brewers in their first series at Miller Park this season. Look for plenty of success for Milwaukee at the plate here as the match-up is favorable and they have averaged 6.3 runs per game in their home games this season. The Cardinals also should fare well in this one at the plate. St Louis has averaged 7.3 runs per game and 10 hits per game their last 4 games. They're facing Freddy Peralta and he is off a horrible start at LA against the Angels and also got rocked by the Cardinals in his only home start this season. Peralta has a 7.00 ERA in his two starts against the Cards in his career. The over is 8-3 in St Louis games versus right-handed starters this season. The over is 4-2 in Milwaukee's home games this season. Our computer math model predicts double digits in runs here! Bet the OVER in the Brewers game in early evening action Monday
|
04-14-19 |
Rockies v. Giants OVER 6.5 |
|
4-0 |
Loss |
-117 |
5 h 19 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
Make no mistake about it both the Rockies and Giants have struggled at the plate early this season. However, match-ups are a key aspect of handicapping baseball and of course line value is the other key. In this case we have both. As a result of the Colorado lineup and San Francisco lineup underachieving early this season you have a total that has dipped as low as a 6.5 on this game. Though most books (as of a little before 11 AM ET) have remained at 7 on this one the over is available at plus money which also offers great value. The Rockies start German Marquez and he is 0-3 with a 7.52 ERA in his appearances at Oracle Park. The Giants have guys up and down their lineup whom have enjoyed great success against Marquez. As for San Francisco starter Derek Holland, he also has a match-up issue here. The Giants left-hander has registered just 1 win in his 4 career starts against the Rockies while compiling a 6.23 ERA against them in those outings. Similar to San Francisco against Marquez, Colorado against Holland has a number of hitters in the lineup today that have enjoyed success against the southpaw. With a total this low the match-up/line value is simply too strong to pass up. Don't be surprised if both lineups come to life today as they face pitchers they've enjoyed facing in the past. West Coast ballparks are known for being pitcher friendly and Oracle Park is one of those parks. However, not only is that factored into this total being set so low, it is also proven that West Coast ballparks like Oracle Park are more hitter-friendly in day games. Look for that trend to continue here as well. Bet the OVER in the Giants game in late afternoon action Sunday
|
04-13-19 |
Tigers v. Twins UNDER 7.5 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
101 |
18 h 59 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON UNDER: Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins, Saturday at 2:10 PM ET
The Minnesota Twins have hit the ball well this season but it has been on the road. At home, in chilly Minneapolis, the Twins have hit just .231 in their first 3 home games. The weather won't be a help on Saturday afternoon either. High temperatures are expected to be in the low 40s at best with a chilly wind and mostly cloudy skies. The Detroit Tigers are in town and they have been the worst hitting team in the majors this season. That is particularly true on the road where the Tigers have been held to a .161 batting average and have scored an average of only 1.7 runs per game. Detroit's Tyson Ross is off a strong start in his most recent outing and that was also in chilly weather in Detroit. Just 1 earned run in 7 innings while striking out 8 batters. Also, the Twins have not faced Ross since the 2014 season. That also works in his favor as well. Minnesota will have Michael Pineda on the mound and he has allowed only 2 earned runs on just 5 hits while striking out 10 in 9 innings of work. Detroit hasn't seen Pineda since 3 years ago and he has success then and this Tigers lineup is much weaker than past Detroit teams. One thing that has been strong for the Tigers is their bullpen! Additionally, the under is a perfect 7-0 in Detroit's road games this season and 4 of the 6 Twins day games this season have stayed under the total. All signs point to a low-scoring battle in chilly weather in this one. Bet the UNDER in the Twins game in early afternoon action Saturday
|
04-12-19 |
Astros v. Mariners OVER 9 |
Top |
10-6 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 58 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON OVER: Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners, Friday at 10:10 PM ET
This is a battle of southpaws Friday night in Seattle as the Mariners Wade LeBlanc goes to battle with the Astros Wade Miley. We don't expect either pitcher to fare well in this match-up. Houston is hitting .308 against lefties this season and that ranks them #1 in the American League. The Mariners slugging percentage is an incredible .663 against left-handed hurlers this season and that ranks them #1 in the majors. The Astros bats are heating up as they've won 6 straight games and scored an average of 6 runs per game. The Seattle sticks have been red hot all season and continue to show no signs of slowing down. The Mariners rallied for the 7-6 win at Kansas City yesterday afternoon and that was their 10th victory in their last 11 games. Seattle has scored an average of 7.8 runs per game this season. Both lineups are very confident at the plate because they've been scoring plenty of runs and they've been winning. Of course that leads to the ultimate level of high confidence at the plate and neither one of these hurlers is overpowering. Miley gave up 8 hits in 6 innings in his lone road start this season. In his last start at Seattle the lefty struggled and could not complete 5 innings while allowing 3 earned runs in that short start. The way the Mariners are swinging the bats we don't expect this start to go any better. LeBlanc is facing a tough match-up here as the Astros have seen plenty of him and have been very successful against him. The southpaw made 6 appearances (4 starts) against Houston last season and compiled a 6.75 ERA and a .315 BAA. Only 1 of the Mariners 15 games this season has resulted in an under! We see every reason to believe Seattle's strong trending to the over continues tonight. Bet the OVER in the Mariners game in late night action Friday
|
04-11-19 |
Mets v. Braves OVER 9 |
|
6-3 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 51 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves, Thursday at 7:20 PM ET
Steven Matz has a very low ERA so far this season but the Mets southpaw was hit rather hard by a light-hitting Marlins team in his first start and then he had issues with his command and walked 4 in his second start. Matz has worked into and out of jams early this season but is likely to be in trouble here as the Braves potent lineup won't be so forgiving. Atlanta is built well to give him trouble as right-handed batters had a slugging percentage more than 100 points higher than lefties against Matz last season. It was not a fluke either as, in 2017, right-handed batters had a slugging percentage nearly 200 points higher than lefties. The Braves have some solid pop from the right-hand side of the plate and then of a the few lefties that will possibly be in the lineup tonight, we point out that both of the following guys are knocking the cover off the ball early this season. Freddie Freeman is hitting .400 this season and Nick Markakis is hitting .341 this season. Could be a rough night for Matz but we also expect Braves starter Kevin Gausman to have a rough night too. He presents an interesting statistical anomaly from last season. His overall numbers on the season don't look that bad but he was helped by one great month. Gausman has a superb August. In the other 5 months of the season he got hit had a .280 batting average against and 4.50 ERA. Those are hardly impressive numbers and the Mets have been crushing the ball. In fact, New York has gone over in 9 of their 11 games this season! The Braves also have been hitting the ball well including averaging 5.5 runs per game at home this season. Both teams rank in the top ten in the majors for batting average and in the bottom ten of the majors for bullpen ERA! Look for the runs to keep on coming in Mets games as they've allowed 6.7 per game in their last 10 games but also have scored an average of 6.7 their last 10 games! Temperatures are warming to near 80 degrees in Atlanta today and it will be a very mild evening at SunTrust Park. Bet the OVER in the Braves game in early evening action Thursday
|
04-10-19 |
Nationals v. Phillies OVER 9 |
|
15-1 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 4 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
The Phillies Nick Pivetta has great stuff but he hasn't been able to consistently harness it. As a result, the Philadelphia right-hander has had his fair share of struggles. The hope for him here is to get back on track but the Nationals have proven to be a nemesis of his. Pivetta is 0-4 with a 10.38 ERA and a 2.35 WHIP in his 6 career starts against Washington. Also, they just saw him last week so that only increases the odds that the Nats sticks are already zeroed in on his offerings. Philly should also pound the ball tonight. They face a former Phillie Jeremy Hellickson and when the Nationals right-hander faced them last year in June at Citizens Bank Park he allowed 7 hits in less than 5 innings of work. Also, this revamped Philadelphia lineup has a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against Hellickson in past seasons. The Nationals bullpen has been one of the worst in the majors early this season. The Phillies bullpen, as shown again last night, also is not without significant issues early this season. Couple these pitching factors with the fact that both lineups are swinging the bats well and you have the perfect situation for another high-scoring game. The over is 7-2 in the Nationals last 9 games. The over is 5-2 in Phillies games against NL foes this season. It will be chilly in Philly tonight but certainly not cold and the above factors more than make up for any slight impact of the weather factor in this one. Bet the OVER in the Phillies game in early evening action Wednesday
|
04-09-19 |
Yankees v. Astros -1.5 |
|
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Houston Astros (-1.5 runs) vs New York Yankees, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET
The Yankees certainly are loaded with some power hitting sluggers but that is also why they are prone to striking out too much. That said, this is not a good match-up for the Yankees. Gerrit Cole is off a superb season last year and he has picked up right where he left off last year as he has struck out 19 in 12 innings in his first two starts. Cole has been dealt a tough 0-2 in the won-loss column however as the run support just hasn't been there in those two games. The key here is that should not be an issue with the Astros at home and taking on an inexperienced starter Jonathan Loaisiga. He was successful in his 4-inning stint last week but that came against the Tigers. Now he goes from facing one of the worst teams in the majors to facing one of the best clubs in the majors. Houston is picking up steam now with 4 straight wins. However, the money line here is far too pricey but we see value with the run line and taking the Astros at -1.5 runs. The Yankees have lost 5 of their last 9 games and 8 of the 9 came against poor teams, Detroit and Baltimore. Loaisiga's 5 career MLB starts have averaged just 4 and 1 / 3 innings and he has never gone more than 5 and 1 / 3 in any start. The Yankees bullpen has been solid but will be asked to do too much here against a potent lineup. Yesterday the New York bullpen allowed 3 runs late. They'll be called upon even earlier in this game! Cole should work deep in the game and the Astros bullpen has been one of the best in the majors this season. Bet Houston -1.5 runs in evening action Tuesday
|
04-08-19 |
Pirates v. Cubs OVER 7.5 |
|
0-10 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs, Monday at 2:20 PM ET
Temperatures will be in the low 60s today at Wrigley Field. Winds are expected to be calm and any light breeze that does pick up during the game is expected to be from the south which only helps our play here as that is the direction we would want. Either way, weather is not a huge impact on this total and we're ready to step in and take advantage of this very low total. The Cubs Jon Lester has great career numbers at Wrigley Field but last season his ERA in home games was nearly a full run higher than on the road. Also, his ERA in day games was nearly a full run higher than in night games. The Pirates have a number of guys in their lineup whom have very solid numbers in their careers against Lester. The Pittsburgh starter for this one is Jameson Taillon. Though he was successful last season against the Cubs, Chicago has a number of hitters (Baez, Contreras, Heyward, Rizzo to name a few) that have solid numbers against him. Also, the Cubs low-scoring loss to Milwaukee yesterday was the first under they have had this season! Chicago's bullpen is 0-3 with an 8.37 ERA this season. The Cubs sticks are hitting .294 this season which is one of thee best marks in MLB this season - only the Dodgers have a higher batting average. The series between these teams has trended under but that is keeping this total much lower than it should be. Consider that the Pirates are 4-2 to the over their last 6 games and the Cubs are 7-1-1 to the over this season. There is familiarity with these pitchers too as these lineups have seen plenty of them in recent seasons. We like Taillon more than Lester and that favors the over here as well because the hotter sticks (Cubs) are facing the better pitcher. We like the Cubs to enjoy success at home but the Pirates also get to an over-rated Lester. This is the southpaw's first home start of 2019 and he allowed 21 hits in 16 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his final 3 regular season home starts in 2018. Bet the OVER in the Cubs game in early afternoon action Monday
|
04-07-19 |
Twins v. Phillies -125 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies over Minnesota Twins, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET
The Twins got the best of the Phillies yesterday but it will very likely prove to be an aberration. Minnesota hit 3 homers yesterday (including the killer 3-run shot in top of 9th) and this was after hitting a total of only 3 homers in their first 6 games this season. In other words, don't look for a repeat here as the Phillies are the much stronger lineup and are also facing Jose Berrios in the right place! What is the right place when it comes to facing Berrios? Anywhere away from Minnesota! Last season the Twins right-hander went 3-7 with a 4.85 ERA in road games. Was it a fluke? Not when you consider his 2017 numbers as he went 5-7 with a 5.17 ERA away from home! The fact is that Berrios is absolutely dominant in almost all his home starts and yet he has sub-par numbers when on the road. It has already started this season as he dominated Cleveland at home but then struggled at Kansas City. He was fortunate to escape KC without much damage because, as per usual on the road, he didn't have his best stuff. But now he faces a Phillies lineup that is much more power than the Royals and will make him pay. He only gave up 3 runs at Kansas City but he'll give up twice that at Citizens Bank Park with the stuff he displayed at Kauffman Field. As for Phillies starter Zach Eflin, he is off a great start and struck out 9 in a scoreless 5 innings and that was on the road! Note that Eflin was much stronger at home than on the road last season as he went 8-3 with a 3.33 ERA in his first full season as a regular starter for the Phillies. His slider has developed into truly a devastating pitch and the Twins don't have much familiarity with him. Philadelphia is 28-15 (including 4-1 this season) when they are a home favorite in a money line range of -125 to -175. The Twins are 62-82 against teams with a winning record. Factoring that in with the very manageable line here (-125 range) as well as the home/road dichotomy of the pitchers and the fact Philly is off a loss, and you have a very nice set-up here. We'll take it! Bet the Phillies money line in early afternoon action Sunday
|
04-06-19 |
Dodgers -117 v. Rockies |
|
7-2 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 31 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET
This game features classic early season over-reaction by the marketplace. The line was as high as -145 on the Dodgers and now has dropped to as low as a -115 and it has a lot to do with Walker Buehler having a bad first start for LA while Jon Gray had a great first start for the Rockies. What the betting market is not taking into account is that Buehler faced a Diamondbacks team that is knocking the cover off the ball with their hot hitting so far this season. On the other hand, Gray faced a Marlins team that would struggle to beat a lot of AAA teams in the minors. All kidding aside, the Marlins offense was putrid last year and it is projected to be even worse this season so that should be factored into Gray's start. By the way, Gray had a 5.44 ERA pre-All Star break last season and also had a 4.91 ERA in his home starts. The Dodgers have clobbered him for 12 earned runs in 11 and 2 / 3 innings the last 3 times they have faced him and all of those were post-All Star break last season. In other words, those came during Gray's better half of the season. As for Buehler, he has stifled the Rockies and held them to 4 earned runs over 18 and 2 / 3 innings while striking out 22 in his last 3 starts against them. Yes this is Coors Field but the Dodgers also have shown the much better sticks so far this season (and that was the case again in yesterday's big win). Los Angeles has a .576 slugging percentage so far this season (one of the best marks in the majors) while Colorado has a .318 slugging percentage (one of the worst marks in the majors). Bet the Los Angeles Dodges money line in evening action Saturday
|
04-05-19 |
Cubs +119 v. Brewers |
|
10-13 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 32 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Chicago Cubs over Milwaukee Brewers, Friday at 8:05 PM ET
There are multiple reasons the Brewers (6-1) are priced rather low on the money line in this match-up with the Cubs (1-5) Friday so don't be fooled by this line. First off, there will be a regression to the mean soon enough. In other words, the Brewers aren't going to be winning 86% of their games all season just like the Cubs aren't going to be losing 83% of their games all season. Secondly, the Cubs actually are hitting better than the Brewers early this season. Chicago's .307 batting average is tops in the majors this season. The Brewers are only hitting .233 this season which ranks them in the bottom half of the NL. Thirdly, and perhaps the biggest key is the pitching match-up here. The Cubs hand the ball to Jose Quintana here and he is 6-2 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in his 11 career starts against the Brewers. Milwaukee is handing the ball to Brandon Woodruff for this one and he has a 6.23 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in his two career starts against the Cubs. Quintana looked sharp in his season debut Sunday against Texas (worked long relief out of the bullpen for 4 innings) and he'll be fresh here after that 4-inning stint. The Cubs southpaw has come up just 1 out short of completing 7 innings in 2 of his last 3 starts against the Brewers. So the fact that Milwaukee's bullpen has certainly been much better than the Cubs bullpen this season is unlikely to be a key factor in this one. Rosario, Kintzler and Brach have a combined 1.23 ERA for Chicago and none of those relievers was used in yesterday's game. The Brewers biggest RBI producers at the plate so far this season are Yelich, Braun, and Moustakas. Yelich and Moustakas are both left-handed bats and now facing a tough southpaw here. Not only that, those 3 players combined are hitting a combined .183 in their total of 71 at-bats against Quintana! The Brewers 6 wins this season have come by a total of only 7 runs so they've truly been winning by the slimmest of margins and the Cubs sticks (matched up with Woodruff) rate a huge edge in this one and we expect a solid road win by a multiple run margin. The Cubs got shutout in one game at Atlanta but have scored an average of 7.2 runs per game in their other 5 games this season. The Brewers have not scored more than 5 runs in a game this season and are averaging scoring only 4 runs per game this season. Grab the road dog in this one! Bet the Chicago Cubs money line in evening action Friday
|
04-04-19 |
Rangers v. Angels OVER 8.5 |
|
11-4 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 11 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels, Thursday at 10:05 PM ET
The story for the Angels this season has been a lineup that has struggled but the reason you're seeing this total move from an 8 to an 8.5 today is because of sharp money. The fact is that this is the Angels are finally at home (this is their home opener) and they're facing a pitcher against whom they should enjoy plenty of success. The Rangers Edinson Volquez walked 4 and gave up 6 hits in his first start this season and that led to 4 earned runs in just 4 innings. This Angels lineup is loaded with guys that have faced Volquez in the past and they've enjoyed success against him. So why not play the Angels as a side play here? We expect the LA starter is also going to get hit hard here. Matt Harvey gets the call and, though he was solid in his first start this season, this is a guy whom has gone 16-26 the last 3 seasons and has not had an ERA under 4.86 in any of those seasons. He'll be facing a Rangers team that had to face some tough starting pitching in their first two series - against the Cubs and Astros. Though Texas didn't hit that great they faced quality pitching and yet still managed to get big hits as well. The Rangers have scored 4 or more runs in 5 of their 6 games this season and in those 5 games they averaged 6.6 runs per game. The last 3 starts Volquez has made in Anaheim all resulted in an over and all 3 games totaled more than 10 runs. Both Volquez and Harvey had more walks than strikeouts in their first start this season and that is never a good sign. Though the Angels bullpen has been strong early this season the Rangers bullpen has been a weakness and per our computer math model, Volquez will be forced out early in this one as the Angels sticks enjoy a breakout game at home. Bet the OVER in late night action Thursday
|
04-03-19 |
Cubs v. Braves OVER 8.5 |
|
4-6 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 47 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves, Monday at 7:20 PM ET
The Braves bullpen has a 7.16 ERA this season and the Cubs pen has been even worse as they have compiled a 7.63 ERA. That could be a factor here because we expect both starting pitchers to run into trouble. The Cubs and Braves ranked 1st and 2nd, respectively, for team batting average in the NL last year. These are two quality lineups and the Cubs Jon Lester allowed 3 homers in 5 innings in his most recent start versus Atlanta and the Braves Julio Teheran allowed 2 homers in 6 innings his most recent start versus Chicago. Lester was strong in his first start this season but he faced a Rangers lineup that, just like last season, has plenty of issues (their opening series featured some big hits but Texas overall will strikeout a ton just like last season). Teheran's first start was also solid but he was again victimized by giving up the big hit and that has been a recurring problem for him. Considering the potency of this Cubs lineup and the fact that the weather will be mild today in Atlanta (high temp in 70s), the Cubs power hitters could do some damage this evening (weather will still be mild after sundown). The same holds true for the Braves and they broke out the big sticks in their 8-0 win over the Cubs Monday. Atlanta has scored at least 4 runs in 3 of their 4 games this season and we have a low total to work with here. The Cubs, prior to the shutout loss Monday, scored an average of 9.3 runs per game in their first 3 games of the season. The over went 3-0 in Chicago's 3-game set at Texas and we expect the high-scoring trend to resume in this one at SunTrust Park. Bet the OVER in Atlanta in early evening action Wednesday
|
04-02-19 |
Red Sox v. A's +1.5 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 20 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Oakland A's (+1.5 runs) vs Boston Red Sox, Tuesday at 10:05 PM ET
The A's won yesterday's game 7-0 and the set up is perfect for the Red Sox to remain cold. Mike Fiers gets the ball for Oakland here and he fired 6 shutout innings (and allowed only 1 hit!) in his first start of the season. Also, the A's right-hander is 2-0 with a 1.99 ERA in the 4 games he has pitched in his career against Boston. The Red Sox counter with Chris Sale here and he got rocked for 7 runs in just 3 innings in his first start of the season. The Boston lefty allowed 3 homers in those 3 innings. Last season Sale was not quite himself in the post-season and continues to have short outings. He also wrapped up the regular season last year with a couple of shot and sub-par outings.. Until he proves otherwise, Sale deserves to be faded and that is especially true when in this price range and on the road and opposed by a hurler who has proven many times in the past that when he is on he is really on! Fiers continues throwing well here and we're grabbing the extra value with the run line. While the A's are very attractive as a sizable money line home dog here, they're even more attractive when getting +1.5 runs and only having to lay small juice. The only win Boston has this season came by a single run margin and one of the A's last two losses came by a single run as well. The Red Sox have been a very strong team the last two seasons but are only 8-9 when off a shutout loss. The A's are 100-67 at home (including 4-1 this season) and also are 14-7 when off a shutout win. Per our computer math model, most of the simulations we ran show either an A's win or an A's loss by just a single run. We'll grab the Run Line here! Bet Oakland +1.5 runs in night action Tuesday
|
04-01-19 |
Angels v. Mariners OVER 9 |
|
3-6 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners, Monday at 10:10 PM ET
Compared to the closing number, the over is a perfect 6-0 in Mariners games this season. Seattle's two games in Japan that opened the MLB regular season (against the A's) averaged 12.5 runs per game. The Mariners four games against Boston in their just-completed series averaged 14.5 runs per game. We see no reason for the streak to stop here as the ball continues to fly out of the park at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. There have already been 17 homers hit in the four games played at T-Mobile Park this season! The Mariners combined with the A's for 7 homers in their 2-game series in Japan to open the season. Per our computer math model, another homer-filled game is on tap for Monday night. The Angels are starting recent acquisition, Chris Stratton. Though the right-hander led the Giants in wins last season, he went 4-7 with a 5.45 ERA in road games. In his last 5 road starts Stratton has allowed 7 homers. That said, this is not a good match-up for him as he faces a Seattle team who has been pounding the long balls! The Mariners counter with Felix Hernandez in this match-up and he is simply not nearly the pitcher he once was. In fact, Felix enters this start having gone without a win since JUNE of last season. What has Hernandez done since then? 0-8 with a 6.34 ERA! The Angels offense is off to a slow start this season but that had a lot to do with the pitchers they faced. They are now in the right place at the right time and facing the right match-up to get going in a big way! A lot of firepower in both of these lineups as the Angels were one of the top home run hitting teams in MLB last season and the Mariners have begun this season on fire at the plate with big hits. Bet the OVER in Seattle in night action Monday
|
03-31-19 |
Braves v. Phillies -137 |
|
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 15 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves, Sunday at 7:05 PM ET
We do not buy into the "avoid the sweep" theory. The fact is that some will back the Braves here just because they lost the first two games. The fact is that the Phillies are very being very underpriced here. Jake Arrieta is a veteran hurler that had some struggles late last season but is likely to get off to a strong start this season just like last year. Keep in mind, he went 5-2 with a 2.16 ERA in his first 10 starts last season. In the months of April, May, July and August Arrieta held hitters to .238 or less in each of those 4 months. At home last season he held hitters to a .238 batting average and he held them to .241 in day game starts. This long-time proven veteran did have some tough stretches at times last season but he felt strong in spring training and all signs are pointing to another strong early season run for him. As for the Braves Kyle Wright, he is another highly touted prospect for the Braves but remember the Phillies faced another one of those yesterday and the results speak for themselves. The fact is that this Phillies lineup is stacked and has power up and down the lineup. Another homer yesterday from the #8 spot in the lineup was among multiple homers hit. While the Phillies are strong all the way through the lineup the Braves are very top heavy. The bottom of their order is not nearly as strong and Philadelphia also has the stronger bullpen in this match-up. Adding up all factors and the surging Phillies are well worth the moderate money line price in this one. The Phillies are 52-31 in home games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs and Philly is now 26-14 in home games where the money line is in a range of -125 to -175. Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line in early evening action Sunday.
|
03-30-19 |
Red Sox v. Mariners OVER 8 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON OVER: Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners, Saturday at 9:10 PM ET
Compared to the closing number, the over is a perfect 4-0 in Mariners games this season. Seattle's two games in Japan last week against the A's averaged 12.5 runs per game. The Mariners two games against Boston so far in this series have averaged 14.5 runs per game. We see no reason for the streak to stop here as the ball continues to fly out of the park at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. There have already been 12 homers hit in the two games of this four-game set! The Mariners combined with the A's for 7 homers in their 2-game series in Japan to open the season. Per our computer math model, another homer-filled game is on tap for Saturday night. The Red Sox Edgar Rodriguez was hit at a .295 clip by Seattle in his starts against them last season and also struggled in Seattle when he faced the Mariners there in 2017. The Mariners Mike Leake was hit at a .287 clip in his home starts last season and a .306 clip in his night starts last season. Last season Leake had a 6.48 ERA in his April starts and we expect another rough start to the season for him in 2019 as well. A lot of firepower in both of these lineups as the Red Sox were the top hitting team in MLB last season and the Mariners have begun this season on fire at the plate with big hits. Bet the OVER in Seattle in night action Saturday.
|
03-28-19 |
Rockies -135 v. Marlins |
|
6-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON Colorado Rockies Money Line (-) @ Miami Marlins, Thursday at 4:10 PM ET
The Marlins are projected to be the worst team in the National League. The fact is they might even be worse than the Orioles in the American League but since Baltimore plays in the AL East with the powerful Yankees and Red Sox plus the solid Rays, the O's are projected to lead the majors in losses this season. However, we won't be surprised if the Marlins overtake them for that unwanted title! The fact is that Miami was already bad enough but then lost JT Realmuto to the Phillies in the off-season. Also, Derek Dietrich is now with Reds. Keep in mind these were two significant producers for the Marlins and now they are gone and Miami already was the lowest-scoring team in baseball. The Marlins are unlikely to enjoy much success against the Rockies Kyle Freeland here. The southpaw had a 2.85 ERA last season and that is even with pitching his home games in the most hitter-friendly venue (Coors Field) in baseball! So phenomenal was his season that he is now in the record books for lowest ERA for a starter in club history! Freeland is likely to dominate this very weak Marlins lineup and, in terms of run support, don't be surprised when he gets plenty here. Jose Urena is more of a thrower than a pitcher! Yes he has impressive heat but he uses it too much and doesn't locate his pitches well enough in key situations. Against the Rockies he has given up 4 homers in his last 3 starts and they've gotten to him for 10 earned runs in 17 and 1 / 3 innings. The Rockies have another edge here too in that Freeland is making his first start against the Marlins in his career. That said, Miami has no experience with him whereas the Rockies do have familiarity with Urena. The Marlins are 5-28 in Thursday games the past two seasons! The Rockies are 13-4 as a road favorite of -125 to -175 the past two seasons! Our computer math model is calling for a road rout here. Bet the Colorado Rockies on the money line in afternoon action Thursday.
|
10-28-18 |
Red Sox +131 v. Dodgers |
|
5-1 |
Win
|
131 |
10 h 58 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Boston Red Sox Money Line (+) @ Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday at 8:05 PM ET
Make sure you select "action" with this play as the key to the value with Boston is the fact that their bullpen and their bats have outperformed the Dodgers throughout this series. Of course that is why the Red Sox have a 3-1 lead and it is also why our computer math model is predicting they finish off LA at Dodger Stadium tonight. Boston is expected to go with David Price in this start but also could go with Chris Sale. Again, we are good no matter whom the Red Sox choose to start. Price has been fantastic in his last 3 appearances in these playoffs and the Red Sox are 11-3 in his last 14 starts. Boston is also 12-2 in the last 14 starts that Sale has made. The Dodgers are expected to go with staff ace Clayton Kershaw here but he got roughed up by the Red Sox in Game 1 of this series and Los Angeles has lost 2 of his last 3 starts. The Red Sox have scored an average of 6.3 runs per game their last 8 games. The Dodgers have scored an average of just 3.2 runs per game their last 9 games. Ride the hot team with the hotter bats at an underdog price! Bet Boston as a money line underdog in evening action Sunday
|
10-24-18 |
Dodgers v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
102 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON UNDER - Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET
Yesterday's game found its way over the total early as, surprisingly, both Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale had rare poor starts. However, just in time for World Series baseball...as if right on cue...a cold front rolled through Boston yesterday. It wasn't a dramatic change in temperatures but still the weather change has brought a rather bracing north wind and temperatures dropping into the 40s in the evenings at Fenway Park for these first two games. The hitters managed to get the job done yesterday, despite the cooler temps, but one shouldn't over-react to one game. In fact, now we've seen an over-reaction from the markets as this total went to an 8.5 compared to a 7.5 or 7 in Game 1. That is because the pitching match-up of David Price versus Hyun-Jin Ryu doesn't have the flashy appeal of a Kershaw / Sale match-up. However, the fact is each of these guys are very capable southpaws and each are certainly likely to pitch much better than the results seen from Kershaw and Sale yesterday. Ryu is off a poor start at Milwaukee in the NLCS but betting markets have a short-term memory and now they're focused on that when the reality is that the lefty entered that outing with a 0.89 ERA in his 5 prior starts! As for Price, the Red Sox going 14-4 in his home starts this season had a lot do with him firing mostly quality outings in Boston this season. Also, he is coming off the gem versus the Astros in the ALCS and has plenty of momentum coming into this start as a result. Look for a huge effort from both starting pitchers here and our expectation is a 2-1 or 3-2 type game that lands well short of the 8.5 that has been posted on this one. Bet the UNDER in Boston in evening action Wednesday
|
10-23-18 |
Dodgers v. Red Sox UNDER 7.5 |
|
4-8 |
Loss |
-119 |
8 h 34 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* UNDER - Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET
Just in time for World Series baseball...as if right on cue...a cold front is rolling through Boston this afternoon. It won't be a dramatic change in temperatures but still, following a potentially rainy afternoon with the storm front, a bracing north wind and temperatures dropping into the 40s is likely at Fenway Park for this one. Not only is that not overly comfortable for the hitters, they already were unlikely to be comfortable stepping into the batters box for this one anyway! That is because the pitching match-up of Clayton Kershaw versus Chris Sale means we should see plenty of solid work on the mound this evening in Boston. This will be the Dodgers 12th game of the post-season and thus far only 3 have resulted in an over! Kershaw has a 2.71 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP this season while Sale has a 2.21 ERA and 0.88 WHIP this season. Both bullpens also are well-rested and that means fresh arms come into this game in the later innings. With that said, all signs point to a pitchers duel this evening and our expectation is a 2-1 or 3-2 type game that lands well short of the 7.5 that has been posted on this one. Bet the UNDER in Boston in evening action Tuesday
|
10-19-18 |
Dodgers v. Brewers OVER 7.5 |
|
2-7 |
Win
|
109 |
6 h 17 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers, Friday at 8:35 PM ET
With this total moving down from an 8 to a 7.5 the best value in this game is on the over. We have no doubt that the Brewers will resume hitting the ball well now that they are back home at Miller Park. This is especially likely given the fact that they did hit fairly well when they saw Hyun-Jin Ryu earlier in this series. The issue here for the Brewers though is that their "bullpen approach" to games simply has not panned out and Milwaukee has now lost 3 of the last 4 games after upsetting Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 of this series. The Dodgers have scored an average of 6.9 runs per game in their last 7 road games. The Brewers, even with struggling at the plate recently (at Dodger Stadium), have averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game in their last 16 games overall. With the low total on this game and the fact that the Dodgers pen has been susceptible on the road in this series and the Brewers pen has been a little shaky recently, we expect plenty of runs in this Game 6 match-up. Bet the OVER in Milwaukee in evening action Friday
|
10-17-18 |
Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8 |
|
8-6 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros, Wednesday at 8:35 PM ET
The Astros Charlie Morton will be on the mound for the first time this month. For Boston's Rick Porcello, it will be just his 2nd start this month. Porcello has given up 17 hits (including 3 homers) in 15 innings over his last 3 starts versus Houston. Morton has given up 23 hits (including 4 homers) in 14 and 2 / 3 innings in his last 3 starts versus the Red Sox. With neither pitcher likely to enjoy much success here (some rust likely for each starter), the high-scoring trending between these teams should continue. Not only have all the games in this series gone over the total, the long-term trending is that only 8 of the last 28 games between these teams have resulted in an under. The over is also 6-1 the last 7 times that Boston has been a road dog. Bet the OVER in Houston in evening action Wednesday
|
10-16-18 |
Brewers +142 v. Dodgers |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 52 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Milwaukee Brewers Money Line (+) @ Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 9:05 PM ET
The common reaction here from the betting markets will be to back the Dodgers off a loss. However, Los Angeles has not performed well in the role of home favorite this season and the Brewers fantastic bullpen performances continue to be the story line of their magical run. Milwaukee is 13-1 their last 14 games. Concerned about backing the Brewers off a shutout win last night? Milwaukee is actually 12-4 this season when off a shutout win. The Dodgers are a poor 19-24 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The price on tonight's game falls right into that sweet spot and LA has cost their backers 18.4 net units in that role this season! Dodgers starter Rich Hill walked 5 and allowed 4 hits in just 4 and 1 / 3 innings in his most recent start. The Brewers are 5-0 in the 5 starts Gio Gonzalez has made since coming to Milwaukee. In a Brewers uniform, Gonzalez has held opponents to a paltry .157 batting averaged. Gonzalez and the Milwaukee bullpen get the job done again here. The Brewers have scored an average of 6 runs per game their last 14 games - another key to their 13-1 run! More of the same in Game 4 of this series at Dodger Stadium tonight. Bet Milwaukee as a money line underdog in evening action Tuesday
|
10-13-18 |
Dodgers v. Brewers OVER 8.5 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 21 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET
The Brewers bullpen had been great this post-season but the Dodgers certainly didn't prescribe to that theory in yesterday's game. Los Angeles rallied against the pen and that is bad news for Milwaukee fans as today Wade Miley takes the mound and he is averaging just 4 and 1 / 3 innings his last 5 starts. The southpaw has a 4.63 ERA his last 3 starts and doesn't get many strikeouts and the Dodgers have been crushing the ball. The good news for Brewers fans however is that their lineup has been red hot too. As well as Hyun-Jin Ryu has been pitching, he is going to have trouble quieting the sticks of a team that has won 12 straight games! The over is 4-2 in the Brewers last 6 home games. The over is 8-4-2 in the Dodgers last 14 games overall. More of the same expected this afternoon at Miller Park! Bet the OVER in Milwaukee in afternoon action Saturday
|
10-09-18 |
Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-102 |
9 h 52 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET
Games between these rivals continue to fly over the total. Playoff games tend to be lower scoring as a general rule but there is too much pop in both of these lineups and both bullpens have had their "moments" of struggles in recent weeks. Considering these factors well as the fact that Boston's Rick Porcello is not pitching deep into games and that CC Sabathia has struggled in 2 of his last 3 starts versus the Red Sox and you have the right recipe for plenty of offense here. This is particularly true on a mid-October evening in the Bronx that will see temperatures more like early September with temps in the 70s for this game! Warm weather, hot bats, and the over is 3-0 in Sabathia's last 3 starts. Look for the over to improve to 13-7 in Rick Porcello's last 20 starts. Our computer math model is forecasting that this one reaches a total of double digits in runs scored! Bet the OVER in New York Yankees in evening action Tuesday
|
10-08-18 |
Dodgers v. Braves UNDER 8 |
|
6-2 |
Push |
0 |
6 h 55 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* UNDER - Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves, Monday at 4:35 PM ET
We won with the over in yesterday's game but now come back with the under in this one. The Braves Mike Foltneywicz has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 4 of his last 6 home starts. The Dodgers Rich Hill does not have a low ERA in recent starts but that is because of some big hits. The fact is that he actually has pitched quite well. The LA left-hander has allowed only 12 hits in his last 24 innings! With Foltneywicz also a very tough pitcher to string hits together against (especially when he is at home) this one has the makings of a pitchers duel and the wind is forecast to be blowing in from left at a good clip for this one. Our computer math model is forecasting that this one reaches a total of only 5 in runs scored! Bet the UNDER in Atlanta in afternoon action Monday
|
10-07-18 |
Dodgers v. Braves OVER 8 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 30 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves, Sunday at 8:05 PM ET
This game features two pitchers each making their first ever career post-season start. Walker Buehler gets the start for the Dodgers and Sean Newcomb gets the start for the Braves. Also this series has shifted now from pitcher-friendly LA to hitter-friendly Atlanta. Considering that factor as well as the fact that we have a low total of 8 runs to work with here, this is a great value spot for the over. Newcomb had a great start versus the Dodgers in his most recent outing versus LA but they hit him hard in two most recent starts versus them that were prior to that outing. Also the Braves southpaw got rocked for 5 earned runs in 3 innings in his most recent home start. The Dodgers Walker Buehler has been pitching very well this season but making a first-ever post-season start on the road can be quite challenging. Also, his ERA on the road was higher than at home this season. Our computer math model is forecasting that this one reaches double digits in runs scored! Bet the OVER in Atlanta in evening action Sunday
|
10-05-18 |
Rockies v. Brewers OVER 8 |
|
0-4 |
Loss |
-115 |
16 h 47 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers, Friday at 4:15 PM ET
The Rockies Tyler Anderson allowed 7 earned runs in 4 innings in a nightmare start versus the Brewers earlier this season in early August. The over is 8-2-1 in Anderson's last 11 starts. The Brewers counter with Jhoulys Chacin in this one and it is a bit of an interesting call on the part of Milwaukee as Chacin is pitching on short rest for the first time in his career. He just started on the 1st of the month and now had just 3 off days in between. The over is 5-2 in Chacin's last 7 home starts. Chacin pitched quite well in his most recent home start but he previously allowed 21 hits in 16 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his 3 prior home starts. There have been low-scoring games so far in this post-season, including those Game 163 match-ups for the divisional titles, but this one shapes up very differently as you can see per the above. Bet the OVER in Milwaukee in afternoon action Friday
|
10-04-18 |
Braves +1.5 v. Dodgers |
|
0-6 |
Loss |
-125 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Atlanta Braves Run Line (+1.5 runs) @ Los Angeles Dodgers, Thursday at 8:35 PM ET
With the line move here there is excellent line value on the underdog Braves at +1.5 runs on the run line. The price is in the -130 range and it gives you the added insurance of turning a 1-run loss into a winning ticket you can cash at the window. The fact is that we expect the Dodgers to struggle just to win this game let alone win it by 2 or more runs. Los Angeles moved back Clayton Kershaw to Game 2 so Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the start here. Though he is also a southpaw he certainly is no Kershaw and the Braves have been one of the best hitting teams in the majors versus left-handed pitching this season. Also Atlanta's Mike Foltneywicz has a stellar 2.48 ERA on the road this season and has allowed a total of just 6 earned runs in his 5 road starts the past two months! The Dodgers Ryu has allowed 38 hits in 35 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last 6 home starts. He was truly hit very hard in 3 of those 6 outings and now faces a tough Atlanta lineup. No doubt the Braves should be "in this one" all the way and have a great shot at the outright upset. We'll grab the extra insurance with the run line should they fall one run short in this one. Bet Atlanta on the run line (+1.5 runs) in evening action Thursday
|
10-03-18 |
A's +1.5 v. Yankees |
|
2-7 |
Loss |
-130 |
9 h 25 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Oakland Athletics Run Line (+1.5 runs) @ New York Yankees, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET
Oakland has decided on a multi-pitcher effort in the AL Wild Card game as Liam Hendriks is slated to get the start but is likely to only pitch an inning or two. With nearly all A's arms available in a "win or go home" game, we like the odds of a strong effort from the A's pitchers in this one and will take advantage of the value in fading Luis Severino. The Yankees righty has struggled every since the All Star break. Of course many will remember his first start of last year's post-season too where he was drilled by Minnesota and forced to exit in the first inning due to inefficiency. Overall, Severino had a sub-par post-season last year and we like the value with Athletics +1.5 runs on the run line. The A's did hit Severino hard in early September and knocked him out of the game by the 3rd inning. The Yankees, on the run line at -1.5 runs, have only cashed a ticket TWICE in their last EIGHT games in the Bronx! The A's have been one of the hottest teams in baseball for months now and at +1.5 runs have been particularly lethal dating back to early in the season. Even including their early season stats when they weren't playing as well, Oakland has only 51 losses by 2 or more runs this season meaning their record at +1.5 runs would be 111-51. The Yankees are only 17-15 on the money line their last 32 games and, at -1.5 runs, that record turns into an unimpressive 13-19. Bet the Oakland A's on the run line (+1.5 runs) in evening action Wednesday
|
10-02-18 |
Rockies +129 v. Cubs |
|
2-1 |
Win
|
129 |
9 h 41 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Colorado Rockies Money Line (+) @ Chicago Cubs, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET
With the loser of this game eliminated from the post-season it goes without saying that this is absolutely a huge game. That said, we successfully went against the Cubs yesterday and that home loss that forced them into this wild card game is the type of defeat that is going to be tough to bounce back from. We like the fact that we can get the hotter team at plus money in this match-up. Yes this game is at Wrigley Field but the Rockies have won 9 of their last 11 games. Also, Colorado has won 15 of their last 17 games that Kyle Freeland has started. He is having a huge season and has remained rock solid in the 2nd half of the season as well. The same can not be said for the Cubs Jon Lester as he has been on a late season fade. In fact, since the All Star break, Lester is getting hit by opponents at a batting average that is north of .300 since mid-July! As for the Cubs overall, they have now lost 5 of their last 9 home games! Lester got the better of Freeland back in late April in a tight 3-2 win but payback will be about as sweet as it can get here as Freeland and the Rockies eliminate Lester and the Cubs from the post-season in this "win or go home" game. The starting pitcher in better current form, the hotter team, and great line value. Bet Colorado on the money line in evening action Tuesday
|
10-01-18 |
Brewers +120 v. Cubs |
|
3-1 |
Win
|
120 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Milwaukee Brewers Money Line (+) @ Chicago Cubs, Monday at 1:05 PM ET
With the loser of this game subject to a one game wild card event that leaves much more to chance than facing a team in a series, this is absolutely a huge game. That said, the motivation is high for both teams but we like the fact that we can get the hotter team at plus money in this match-up. Yes this game is at Wrigley Field but the Brewers, no matter whom they start at pitcher (select "action" when you play this wager), have won 27 of their last 37 games including 7 in a row. As for the Cubs, they had lost 4 of their last 7 home games prior to getting a win yesterday. Also, the Brewers have won 7 of their last 10 games against Chicago and that includes taking 2 of 3 in their most recent series at Wrigley Field. The Cubs Jose Quintana has a 5.40 ERA in his last 3 starts and has given up 5 homers in 15 innings over those 3 outings. The Cubs won his most recent start but previously had lost 6 of his last 9 outings! The Brewers have hit 3 homers in their last 2 games against him at Wrigley Field. Jhoulys Chacin is likely to get the start here for the Brewers here and he is 10-3 in road starts this season. But, again, take "action" when you make this play as there has been some uncertainty in terms of the pitching match-up here but we expect the hotter team (Brewers) to get the job done here and win the NL Central. Bet Milwaukee on the money line in early afternoon action Monday
|
09-29-18 |
Cardinals +140 v. Cubs |
|
2-1 |
Win
|
140 |
4 h 5 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* St Louis Cardinals Money Line (+) @ Chicago Cubs, Saturday at 1:05 PM ET
This is a fantastic situation featuring a highly motivated underdog that also rates a pitching edge in this match-up. The Cardinals would love to play the role of spoiler against a division rival here and they've got the right pitching match-up to do just that. St Louis' Miles Mikolas is on an incredible run of consistency that has seen him allow 2 earned runs or less in 14 of his last 17 starts! The Cardinals are a stellar 13-2 in the last 15 starts Mikolas has made. As for the Cubs Cole Hamels, he has had issues lately. The Chicago southpaw has had trouble locating his fastball and as a result he has been leaving it in the wrong place at the wrong time. Hamels has allowed 11 earned runs on 22 hits in less than 19 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The Cubs are only 13-11 their last 24 games even with the win yesterday. That said, the value is clearly with the big road dog here. The Cardinals haven't quit playing hard as, prior to yesterday's loss, St Louis was 3-1 their last 4 road games and they'd love to put a dent in Chicago's hopes for the division title. The Cubs have lost 4 of Hamels' last 5 starts. The Cards have won each of Mikolas' last 4 starts. Upset alert here! Bet St Louis on the money line in early afternoon action Saturday
|
09-28-18 |
Nationals v. Rockies -1.5 |
|
2-5 |
Win
|
105 |
22 h 37 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Colorado Rockies Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Washington Nationals, Friday at 8:10 PM ET
The Rockies are 9-1 in Kyle Freeland's last 10 starts. In home starts Colorado is 12-2 in Freeland's 14 starts. The Rockies southpaw has a 2.36 ERA in those outings. Of course Colorado is in a big battle for a playoff spot and they're hosting a Washington team that has long been eliminated from post-season contention and that is 0-2 in games against the Rockies when Freeland is starting. Joe Ross got rocked for 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings in his lone career start versus Colorado. The Rockies are 7-0 in their last 7 games and all 7 wins came by 2 or more runs. That is why there is great value with the run line here. By laying the 1.5 runs the Rockies price is right around break even. The Nationals have lost both the starts that Ross has made this season. The Rockies are on a 37-22 run in games against teams with a winning record. Washington is just 18-26 this season in games against left-handed starters. Bet the Colorado Rockies on the run line (-1.5 runs) in evening action Friday
|
09-27-18 |
Indians v. Royals OVER 9.5 |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-113 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET
The Indians are starting Josh Tomlin in this one. The Indians right-hander has a 7.82 ERA in his 9 starts this season and only 2 of those outings have resulted in an under. Cleveland comes into this game red hot at the plate as they have maintained their momentum heading toward the post-season even though their play-off position is locked in. The Indians are 7-4 their last 11 games and have averaged scoring nearly 6 runs per game during this hot streak. The Royals, as bad as their season has been, actually have a winning record over their last 13 games and have averaged scoring nearly 5 runs per game during this stretch. We look for KC to have no trouble with the offerings of a struggling Tomlin. As for Kansas City starter Glenn Sparkman, he has struggled at the MLB level with a 6.55 ERA in his 16 games (2 starts) with opponents hitting .347 against him. The over is 9-5 in Cleveland's Thursday games this season. The over is 4-0 in the Royals last 4 home games. The Indians bullpen is 15-27 with a 4.51 ERA this season while the Royals bullpen is 19-36 with a 5.01 ERA this season which ranks worst in the AL. We expect runs early, often, and throughout this one. Bet the OVER in Kansas City in evening action Thursday
|
09-26-18 |
Phillies v. Rockies OVER 10 |
|
0-14 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 54 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET
This total was set at 10.5 when odds makers released it but the number has now come down to a 10 as of Wednesday morning. We like the value being offered here considering that there is reason to believe each of these starters will struggle. The Rockies won 10-3 yesterday and that was the third straight home game in which Colorado has reached double digits in runs scored. They should take advantage of a Phillies bullpen that continues to struggle. That is because Nick Pivetta is unlikely to pitch deep into this game. The Phillies right-hander has averaged just 4 and 2 / 3 innings per start his last 5 starts. Though Pivetta racks up strikeouts he also racks up big pitch counts and is generally forced to exit early. He has a 4.90 ERA on the road this season. The Rockies counter with German Marquez whom has a great road ERA this season but, as you would expect, struggles at home at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Marquez has a 5.14 ERA and opponents are batting nearly .300 against him in his home starts this season. Look for the over to move to 8-4 this season in Philadelphia's games when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 or more runs. The over is 3-0 in the Rockies last 3 home games and they continue crushing the ball today. Bet the OVER in Colorado in evening action Wednesday
|
09-25-18 |
Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 |
Top |
12-4 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 12 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals, Tuesday at 8:15 PM ET
This total was set at 9 when odds makers released it but the number has now come down to an 8.5 as of Tuesday morning. We like the value being offered here considering that there is reason to believe each of these starters will struggle. Keep in mind, even though the Cardinals have been locked into a race for a post-season berth, they have not been getting involved in pitchers duels. In fact, with last night's 6-4 loss to the Brewers flying over the total, the over is now a perfect 7-0 in the Cards last 7 games. St Louis should stay hot at the plate versus Gio Gonzalez. Though he has some good numbers since coming to the Brewers, Gonzalez has struggled on the road this season. He got rocked for 5 earned runs in 4 innings in his most recent start at St Louis. That tough outing is part of a stretch since mid-June that has seen Gonzalez allow 34 earned runs in 46 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last 9 road starts. That equates to a 6.56 ERA for the Brewers southpaw in his last 9 outings away from home. Cardinals southpaw Austin Gomber is also likely to struggle in this one. He is nearing a career high in innings pitched (majors and minors combined) and appears to be wearing down. Gomber has allowed 8 earned runs on 15 hits in 8 innings spanning his last two starts. Each of those outings went over the total and we expect another one here! The Brewers have scored 6 runs or more in 5 of their last 7 games and Milwaukee stays "locked in" at the plate tonight. Look for an easy totals winner soaring past the low number. Bet the OVER in St Louis in evening action Tuesday
|
09-24-18 |
Pirates +144 v. Cubs |
|
5-1 |
Win
|
144 |
9 h 14 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line (+) @ Chicago Cubs, Monday at 8:05 PM ET
This is a fantastic situation featuring a highly motivated underdog that also rates a pitching edge in this match-up. The Pirates would love to play the role of spoiler against a division rival here and they've got the right pitching match-up to do just that. Pittsburgh's Jameson Taillon is on an incredible run of consistency that has seen him allow 3 earned runs or less in 20 straight starts! As for the Cubs Cole Hamels, he has had issues lately. The Chicago southpaw has had trouble locating his fastball and as a result he has been leaving it in the wrong place at the wrong time. Hamels has allowed 9 earned runs on 17 hits in less than 13 innings spanning his last 2 starts. The Cubs have been playing just .500 ball for the past two weeks and the value is clearly with the big road dog here. The Pirates certainly haven't quit playing hard as, prior to yesterday's loss, Pittsburgh was 12-4 their last 16 games. The Cubs have lost 3 of Hamels last 4 starts. The Pirates have won each of Taillon's last 6 starts. Upset alert here! Bet Pittsburgh on the money line in evening action Monday
|
09-23-18 |
Cubs -1.5 v. White Sox |
|
6-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 18 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Chicago Cubs Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Chicago White Sox, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET
The Cubs are still trying to hold off the Brewers in the NL Central. Of course the White Sox would like to play the role of spoiler but this one sets up as a complete pitching mismatch. The Cubs Kyle Hendricks has allowed a total of only 7 earned runs in his last 6 starts and those outings have total nearly 39 innings! White Sox starter Carlos Rodon has been at the other end of the spectrum of late as he has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts and has had major issues with command of his pitches which has led to far too many walks. We get line value here by playing the run line with the Cubs as, at -1.5 runs, their price is in the -125 range. 7 of the Cubs last 8 road wins have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. As for the White Sox, 36 of their last 42 losses have come by 2 or more runs! This one has "road rout" written all over it. Bet the Chicago Cubs on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early afternoon action Sunday
|
09-21-18 |
Cubs v. White Sox +1.5 |
|
4-10 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 54 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Chicago White Sox Run Line (+1.5 runs) vs Chicago Cubs, Friday at 4:05 PM ET
The White Sox, of course, are not going to the post-season. The Cubs, very likely, are going to the post-season but they are still in a battle for the Central Division title with the Brewers. That said, the cross-town rival Pale Hose would love nothing more than to prevent the Cubs from getting any closer to that NL Central title! The White Sox will be ready to go here Friday afternoon and they have a red hot Reynaldo Lopez on the mound. The ChiSox are 5-1 in his last 6 starts and the lone loss came by just a single run. That is another reason we like the value here of the +1.5 runs with the home dog. Lopez has allowed just 2 earned runs TOTAL on only 15 hits in the 27 innings spanning his last 4 starts! He has been piling up strikeouts and the Cubs have never faced it. Now, while it is also true that the White Sox hitters have not faced Cubs starter Jose Quintana, they do know plenty about him as he went to the Cubs from the White Sox last season! Of course Quintana would love to have a good start against his former team but Lopez is even hotter than Quintana right now and we love the home dog value in this match-up. The Cubs are only 6-6 in their last 12 games but 3 of those 6 wins came by just 1 runs so, at -1.5 runs, the Cubbies are just 3-9 their last 12 games! Bet the White Sox on the run line (+1.5 runs) in afternoon action Friday
|
09-20-18 |
Phillies +137 v. Braves |
|
3-8 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 56 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ Atlanta Braves, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET
Crucial series for the Phillies begins tonight in Atlanta as they have a 4-game set with the Braves and could make a major dent in Atlanta's lead in the NL East. However, just because a team needs to win does not mean one should just blindly play them of course. There must be support when making a play and, most certainly, in this case there is! The Phillies Vincent Velasquez has been hurt by a couple big hits against the Braves this season and yet he allowed just 1 earned run in his most recent start against them and produced a quality start (3 earned runs in 6 innings) in his most recent start at Atlanta this season. In his last 3 starts versus the Braves, Velasquez has struck out 20 in 14 and 1/3 innings and they haven't faced him in nearly 4 months. That should help continue to give him the edge with his repertoire of pitches keeping Braves hitters off balance. As for the Atlanta starter, Kevin Gausman, he most recently faced the Phillies just two months ago in July and he got rocked for 5 earned runs on 12 hits in 5 innings while recording just 2 strikeouts. Philadelphia has won back to back games and 4 of their last 6 while the Braves had lost 4 straight before finally getting back into the win column yesterday. The Phillies still have life as 7 of their last 11 games to wrap up the season are versus Atlanta. Look for a huge effort from the hungry road dog in this one as the Phillies get the upset win at a nice comeback price. Bet Philadelphia on the money line in early evening action Thursday
|
09-19-18 |
Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8 |
Top |
1-10 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 9 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
This total was set at 8.5 when odds makers released it but the number has now come down to an 8 as of Wednesday morning. We like the value being offered here considering that there is reason to believe each of these starters will struggle. Boston's David Price has found Yankee Stadium to be a "house of horrors" for him ever since he came to the Red Sox. The southpaw has gone 0-5 with a 10.44 ERA in his 5 starts there. In his most recent outing there he allowed 5 homers on July 1st! He is not the only pitcher likely to struggle tonight. The Yankees Luis Severino just hasn't been the same pitcher he was in the first half of the season when he was dominating the opposition. The last time he faced the Red Sox (August 3rd) he allowed 4 earned runs in less than 6 innings and Severino had more walks than strikeouts. In his last 11 starts, the Yankees right-hander has gone 3-6 with a 6.43 ERA. The over is 10-3 in Severino's 13 starts since July 1st. Also, he has made 5 home starts during that stretch and the over went a perfect 5-0! The over is also a perfect 3-0 in Price's last 3 starts at Yankee Stadium. After that pitchers' duel last night, don't be surprised when this one sees runs early and often which should lead to an easy totals winner soaring past the low number. Bet the OVER in the New York Yankees game in early evening action Wednesday
|
09-18-18 |
Rays -1.5 v. Rangers |
|
4-0 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 12 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Tampa Bay Rays Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Texas Rangers, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET
This one has the makings of a complete mound mismatch. The Rays are 7-0 in Blake Snell's last 7 starts and all 7 wins have come by 2 or more runs. That is why, though we would never lay -200 on the money line, we're very comfortable laying the small juice on the run line here in a game where the likelihood of a win by 2 or more runs is strong. Snell is 7-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his 8 starts since the All Star break and he has held hitters to a .183 batting average on the season! As for the Rangers Yovani Gallardo, he has a 6.67 ERA on the season. Plus he has been especially bad under the lights! In evening games Gallardo has an 8.32 ERA and opponents have hit .319 against him. Surprisingly the Rangers have won a fair share of games with Gallardo on the mound but that hasn't been due to his pitching form! Also, Texas has lost 4 of his last 6 starts and all 4 defeats came by 2 or more runs. The Rangers, overall, are 3-8 their last 11 games and 7 of the 8 losses came by 2 or more runs. The Rays, overall, are 21-5 their last 26 games and 17 of the 21 wins came by 2 or more runs. All signs point to another big win tonight! Lay the 1.5 runs on the run line here and look for a road rout. Bet the Rays on the run line (-1.5 runs) in evening action Tuesday
|
09-17-18 |
Cardinals +123 v. Braves |
|
11-6 |
Win
|
123 |
10 h 35 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* St Louis Cardinals Money Line (+) @ Atlanta Braves, Monday at 7:35 PM ET
The Braves Mike Foltneywicz certainly has had a strong season. However, this has helped to create exceptional underdog line value here because the Cardinals Miles Mikolas is 8-0 in his 14 road starts this season! Atlanta is only 6-8 in the 14 home starts Foltneywicz has made this season. In his most recent home start versus an NL opponent, the Braves right-hander allowed 4 earned runs. As Mikolas, the St Louis right-hander has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 11 of his last 15 starts. The Cards are 11-2 in his last 13 starts while Atlanta is 1-4 in the last 5 starts Foltneywicz has made. Bet St Louis on the money line in early evening action Monday
|
09-16-18 |
White Sox v. Orioles OVER 9 |
|
4-8 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 19 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET
This total was set at 9.5 when odds makers released it and has now come down to a 9 as of Sunday morning. We like the value being offered here considering that there is reason to believe each of these starters will struggle plus we know each starter is supported by a sub-par bullpen. The White Sox and Orioles have each had issues with their relievers all season long. Chicago starter Lucas Giolito has a 5.76 ERA on the season. Baltimore starter David Hess has a 5.14 ERA on the season. Giolito has a 7.56 ERA in his last two starts. Hess has allowed 11 runs (6 earned) on 16 hits in just 9 innings spanning his last two starts. Giolito got crushed by the Orioles back in May. The over is 14-8 in Orioles Sunday games this season. The over is 26-13 in the White Sox last 39 games against teams with a losing record. Bet the OVER in Baltimore in early afternoon action Sunday
|
09-14-18 |
Tigers v. Indians OVER 9 |
|
5-4 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians, Friday at 7:10 PM ET
The Indians Josh Tomlin has allowed 11 hits in less than 7 innings since he started working out of the bullpen for the Tribe. This will be his first start since mid-May. As a starter this season, Tomlin is 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA in 6 starts. The over is 5-1 in his 6 starts this season and we see every reason to believe that this will be another one that flies over the total. Tomlin has a history of struggles against a number of Tigers hitters. Likewise, Detroit starter Matt Boyd has a history of struggles against many of the Indians hitters he will see in the lineup tonight. The Tigers southpaw allowed 6 earned runs in just 3 innings in his most recent start versus the Indians. The over is 3-1-1 in Boyd's last 5 starts as his strong start versus the Cardinals (stayed under the total) has certainly been the exception rather than the norm of late. The over is 13-7 in Indians home games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs this season and this one should fly over the total as well. Bet the OVER in Cleveland in early evening action Friday
|
09-12-18 |
A's v. Orioles OVER 9.5 |
|
10-0 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Oakland A's @ Baltimore Orioles, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
We lost with the A's run line in this series last night as Oakland jumped out 3-0 but settled for a 3-2 win. The first inclination today was to come right back with the run line on the A's and again fade the worst team in baseball. However, the Athletics pitching situation tonight is certainly a concern for them. They are going with one of those "bullpen games" made especially popular by Tampa Bay this season. Oakland wills start Liam Hendricks in this game but he is likely to pitch just 1 inning and then the A's bullpen takes over. The Orioles have hit better at home than on the road in recent weeks and are likely to do some damage tonight as the A's certainly have a bit of a "questionable" pitching situation tonight. A key to the value with the over here is that Baltimore's Andrew Cashner is likely to get rocked and behind him is an Orioles bullpen that ranks as one of the worst in the majors. Cashner has a 6.30 ERA in his last two starts with 5 walks and just 1 strikeout in those 10 innings. He has allowed 23 hits (including 5 homers) in the 17 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The over was 8-1 in Oakland's previous 9 games before yesterday's under. The over was 8-3 in the Orioles previous 11 games prior to yesterday's under. As you can see, tonight's game is likely to play out much differently than yesterday's low-scoring battle. Bet the OVER in Baltimore in early evening action Wednesday
|
09-11-18 |
Blue Jays v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 |
|
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 30 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET
86% of the Blue Jays Ryan Borucki's road starts this season have gone over the total. Additionally we certainly like the added value being offered here as this total opened up at a 9 but has dropped down to an 8.5 as of Tuesday AM. Chris Sale gets the call for the Red Sox here but he is unlikely to be as sharp as usual. This will be just his second start since July 20th and his first start since August 12th. There is line value here because his reputation certainly merits a lower total but, again, the Red Sox are sure to be careful with him here and "save him" for the post-season. Nathan Eovaldi will get the ball after just 2 or 3 innings being the likely limit for Sale as he is still recovering from shoulder inflammation in his throwing shoulder. That certainly holds significance here as Eovaldi has a 6.85 ERA in his last 6 starts plus, overall, the Red Sox bullpen has struggled of late. The BoSox should score plenty here though. The over has come in for both of Borucki's starts versus Boston this season. Also the Jays are 43-23 to the over in road games this season. The Red Sox over should improve to 5-1 on the year in games where they are a home fave in a money line range of -250 to -330. Bet the OVER in Boston in early evening action Tuesday
|
09-11-18 |
A's -1.5 v. Orioles |
|
3-2 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Oakland A's Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Baltimore Orioles, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET
Oakland is a perfect 6-0 in Mike Fiers 6 starts since they acquired him from Detroit. Also, each of the last 4 wins have come by a victory margin of at least 2 runs. With Oakland a red hot 7-2 in their last 9 games and all 7 wins having come by a victory margin of no less than 2 runs, the A's are offering great value on the run line in this match-up. Of course Baltimore has been at the other end of the spectrum as their awful season simply can't end soon enough. Not only are the Orioles an ugly 1-8 in their 9 games heading into this match-up, 6 of the 8 losses have come by a margin of at least 2 runs. Baltimore will have Alex Cobb on the mound for this one. Though he has pitched a little better of late it is still hard to ignore the fact that, prior to winning Cobb's most recent home start, the O's were 0-9 this season in his starts at Camden Yards! Also, the Orioles bullpen is one of the worst in the majors while the A's bullpen is one of the best. Lay the 1.5 runs on the run line here and look for a road rout. Bet the A's on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Tuesday
|
09-10-18 |
Indians v. Rays +1.5 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Tampa Bays Run Line (+1.5 runs) vs Cleveland Indians, Monday at 7:10 PM ET
The Rays are one of the hottest teams inn baseball and are still mathematically alive in the wild card race. The Indians have very nearly clinched the AL Central Division and are very nearly locked in to being the #3 seed in the AL for this post-season. The point is that Tampa Bay is arguably the more motivated team here and we like them as a home dog in this spot. We also like the added value of the Rays on the run line at +1.5 runs. That way if TB loses a tight one by just a run we still cash our ticket and the current price (-130 range) makes it very economical to grab the Rays on the run line. The Indians are just 4-5 their last 9 games and one of those wins came by just a single run so they are only 3-6 their last 9 games on the run line at -1.5 runs. The Rays have won 7 of their last 8 games and their starter, Castillo, will only go an inning or two tonight but these "bullpen games" for Tampa have been very successful this season. Their bullpen arms are rested too after Chirinos gave them over 6 innings yesterday plus Snell gave them a great start on Friday. As for the Indians Kluber, he certainly has great numbers on the season but he is 9-7 in night games compared to 9-0 in day games this season. Also, he has a 3.67 ERA in road starts compared to a 2.05 ERA in home starts. The last time he started at Tropicana Field he gave up 3 earned runs and the Rays (other than one bad game at Toronto) have limited their opponents to just 2.6 runs per game in their other 8 games dating back to the last day of August. Look for a low scoring game where the +1.5 runs offers phenomenal value. Grab the run line here and look for a home dog upset. Bet the Rays on the run line (+1.5 runs) in early evening action Monday
|
09-09-18 |
Yankees v. Mariners OVER 8 |
|
2-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - New York Yankees @ Seattle Mariners, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET
The first two games of this series stayed under the total and this has helped lead to a drop on this total down to 8 runs as of Sunday morning. We are going to jump on the added value here as the Yankees, heading into this series, had been on a 5-2 run to the over. The Mariners, heading into this series, had been on a 5-3 run to the over. Yankees starter CC Sabathia is 0-2 in his last two starts and has allowed 7 earned runs in 9 and 1 / 3 innings. Mariners starter Erasmo Ramirez has allowed 8 earned runs in 8 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last two starts. Sabathia's ERA (4.62) is 2 runs higher on the road compared to at home this season. As for Ramirez, he is 0-2 with an 8.53 ERA in his 3 day game starts this season! Bet the OVER in Seattle in late afternoon action Sunday
|
09-07-18 |
Phillies -151 v. Mets |
|
4-3 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ New York Mets, Friday at 7:10 PM ET
Certainly the Phillies have had their share of struggles recently but when you compare these two teams no one could successfully argue against the fact that Philadelphia is the superior team in comparison with the Mets. On top of that though, what makes the Phillies worth the moderate price here on the road in this one at New York is the fact that they have a huge pitching edge. Philadelphia's Aaron Nola has struck out 21 while allowing only 4 hits in 14 innings in his last two starts versus the Mets. Compare this with New York's Steven Matz.. The Mets southpaw has allowed 3 homers in just 7 innings in his last two starts versus the Phillies plus he has had as many walks as strikeouts in those two games. While Matz is 0-2 in his 3 career starts versus Philadelphia, Nola is a perfect 3-0 this season versus the Mets. As a home dog in a range of +125 to +175 the Mets are 1-12 this season. The Phillies are 18-6 in Nola's last 24 starts. That means combined edges of 30-7 (81%) here are in favor of the road favorite in this match-up. Lay it! Bet Philadelphia on the money line in early evening action Friday
|
09-05-18 |
Angels v. Rangers OVER 10 |
|
9-3 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 28 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET
Bartolo Colon is back for the Rangers as he makes his first start in about two weeks. That is good news for those fans whom like to see a lot of offense. Colon has a 7.41 ERA in his last three starts overall. In terms of starts against the Angels, the aging right-hander has allowed 24 runs (17 earned) in just 10 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. LA just saw him in early June and pounded him and we expect more of the same on Wednesday evening. As for Los Angeles right-hander Jaime Barria, he does have good stats versus the Rangers this season. However, he allowed 1 hit in the first start, 4 hits in the second start, and 7 hits in the third start. You see the pattern here? That would mean 10 is up next and honestly we would not be surprised to see that this evening. The Rangers are at home where they hit much better than on the road. Also, they just got to him for 7 hits in only 5 innings on August 19th. Seeing him again so soon will only help the Rangers bats. The first two games of this 3-game set have stayed under the total but the Rangers entered this series having averaged scoring 10.7 runs per game in their 3 prior games! Also, even with the low-scoring start to this series, the Angels have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their 9 games played at Texas this season! Look for the over to move to 5-1 in Colon's last 6 home starts as the teams enjoy hitter-friendly conditions in Arlington tonight. Bet the OVER in Texas in evening action Wednesday
|
09-04-18 |
Royals v. Indians -1.5 |
|
3-9 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 37 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Cleveland Indians Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET
As a road underdog in a money line range of +175 to +250, the Royals are only 8-36 their last 44 and that is even after yesterday's surprising big dog upset win for Kansas City. Of course we're not going to lay a huge money line price here with the Indians but we're happy to only pay a price of about -110 and bet on Cleveland on the run line at -1.5 runs in this one. Royals starter Danny Duffy is 2-9 with a 5.79 ERA in his 14 career starts against the Indians. He has been crushed by Cleveland in his starts against them this season and that includes allowing 15 earned runs in 9 and 1/3 innings in the last two starts. The Indians Mike Clevinger is 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA in his 7 career starts versus Kansas City. The right-hander has held the Royals down again this season and has compiled a 2.57 ERA in 3 starts and two of those were wins that each came by a multiple-run margin. 66 of the Royals 91 losses this season have come by at least a 2 run margin. 59 of the Indians 77 wins this season have come by at least two runs. You can see that the odds strongly favor a Cleveland win coming by at least 2 runs in this match-up. Lay the run line here and look for a home blowout. Bet the Indians on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Tuesday
|
09-03-18 |
Tigers v. White Sox OVER 9 |
|
2-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
22 h 4 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox, Monday at 2:10 PM ET
The Tigers are enjoying a surge at the plate. They looked very strong in their 4 game set in the Bronx against the Yankees and scored at least 5 runs in 3 of the 4 games. The White Sox also have been hot at the plate too. Chicago has averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their last 7 games against right-handed starters. Also, yesterday's game (against a southpaw starter) marked the 9th time in 10 games overall in which the White Sox have scored at least 4 runs. Chicago will take advantage of facing a struggling Michael Fulmer. The Tigers right-hander has allowed 14 earned runs in the 13 innings spanning his last 3 starts. As you would expect, the over went a perfect 3-0 in those starts. White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez has seen his last 13 starts resulted in 10 overs and only 3 unders. Lopez allowed at least 4 earned runs in more than half of those outings and the Tigers will be facing him for the 6th time already this season! That is a huge edge for the hitters and they have gotten to him for 20 hits in 15 and 2 / 3 innings the last 3 times they've faced him. Plenty of offense in this one as this match-up also features two of the worst bullpens in the majors. Bet the OVER in the Chicago White Sox game in early afternoon action Monday
|
09-02-18 |
Cubs v. Phillies -135 |
|
8-1 |
Loss |
-135 |
23 h 0 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET
The Phillies are offering great line value here. Even though Philadelphia staff ace Aaron Nola is on the mound, the Phils are matched up with one of the National League's best teams as well as another big name pitcher Jon Lester. Facing the Cubs and facing Lester are the keys to keeping the money line on this one at a very reasonable range even though the Phillies are 12-1 in Nola's 13 home starts this season. While Nola is absolutely a Cy Young candidate (and has been all season long), Cubs southpaw Lester has been on a major fade since the All Star break. The veteran lefty has a 6.69 ERA (and opponents have hit .333 against him) in his 8 starts since the mid-summer classic. The Cubs are just 4-4 in those 8 starts while the Phillies bullpen blowing Nola's most recent start was the first home loss they've had with him on the mound this entire season (had been 12-0!). Huge pitching edge here and the value is there for a strong investment on the Phillies in this one. Bet Philadelphia on the money line in early afternoon action Sunday
|
08-31-18 |
Twins v. Rangers OVER 11 |
|
10-7 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers, Friday at 8:05 PM ET
WHIP is one of the better measures of a pitchers efficiency because, essentially, it tells you how many baserunners per inning they are allowing. Of course the more baserunners allowed the quicker pitchers get into trouble and the quicker that you see big numbers being put on the scoreboard. That said, this has the makings of a wild one in Texas on Friday night. Rangers starter Drew Hutchison has a 2.02 WHIP in his 4 MLB starts this season (all this month). The Twins Stephen Gonsalves has made two starts so far (also both in August) and he has a 3.00 WHIP. That means you can expect about 5 baserunners per inning with these two guys on the mound so we should see runs early and often in this match-up. Neither bullpen is particularly strong either and also note that in late season match-ups where two teams are playing without any pennant race pressure you have very relaxed hitters at the plate that certainly won't be pressing and that means some big hits are likely in this one. It will be a very warm night at the hitter-friendly ballpark in Arlington so don't let the big posted total on this game keep you away. It is has the makings of a slug-fest. The over is 12-6 in Minnesota's Friday games this season. The over is 9-3 this season when the Rangers are a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175. Bet the OVER in Texas in evening action Friday
|
08-29-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7.5 |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 11 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants, Wednesday at 10:15 PM ET
In properly analyzing totals it is important to understand the full scope of a play including the corresponding money line on the side. In this particular case it is certainly noteworthy that odds makers have set the Diamondbacks as road favorites even though Zack Godley is very likely to struggle. In turn, this tells us we can expect Arizona to score plenty of runs. That's because the Dbacks are favored here even though the Giants home record is better than the Diamondbacks road record and even though Godley has allowed has a 9.90 ERA in his last two starts overall plus has allowed 14 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last two starts versus San Francisco. Couple these factors with the fact that Dereck Rodriguez has pitched well recently and you can see why this total is very intriguing! This is just the 2nd time this season that the rookie right-hander is hosting a team in a 2nd meeting after visiting them in the first. The other time it happened, versus Miami, he gave up 3 earned runs on 7 hits in just 5 innings versus the Marlins. Now, after a successful start at Arizona in late June, don't be surprised when the Diamondbacks have a lot more success in the second "go round" versus Rodriguez tonight. The over is 9-3-1 in Godley's last 13 road starts. The over is 12-6 in Giants Wednesday games this season. 21-9 combined trending we will gladly put to the test in this one! Bet the OVER in San Francisco in late night action Wednesday
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08-28-18 |
Rays +115 v. Braves |
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5-9 |
Loss |
-100 |
22 h 7 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) @ Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 7:35 PM ET
The Rays will have another "bullpen game" Tuesday. Not only have these types of pitching arrangements served Tampa well this season, they also are in great shape for one here since Blake Snell gave them a solid 6-inning effort Sunday and then Tampa Bay was off on Monday. The Rays have won 8 straight games and have allowed an average of only 1.5 runs per game during this winning streak. The Braves have lost 4 straight home games and Atlanta allowed an average of 6.3 runs per game during this home turf losing streak. Though Atlanta's Julio Teheran has pitched well of late, so too has Ryne Stanek as well as the Tampa relievers. Also, the Braves have lost 5 of the last 8 home starts Teheran has made. Atlanta has lost 17 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record. The Rays have won 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. Bet Tampa Bay on the money line in early evening action Tuesday
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08-27-18 |
Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 9.5 |
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0-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles, Monday at 7:05 PM ET
After getting drilled by the Phillies 8-3 yesterday, the over is now 8-4 in the Blue Jays last 12 games. That high-scoring defeat was at home and now they are back on the road where the over is 39-21 in Jays games this season. A tightener within that is that Toronto is 18-7 to the over in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Blue Jays are starting Sam Gaviglio here and that means the Orioles will be seeing him for the 3rd time since the All Star break and 2nd time within a week. Repetition generally leads to more success for the hitters as they become more and more familiar with a pitchers offerings. The over is 6-3 in Gaviglio's road starts this season and this will be the first time he has had to face the Orioles at Baltimore. The O's starter in this one is David Hess and the Jays will be facing him for the third time already since early June. Hess has enjoyed success versus Toronto but this is the first time he is facing them in Baltimore. That certainly holds significance here as he has a 6.43 ERA in his home starts this season. By the way, Gaviglio has an 8.36 ERA in road starts this season. Bet the OVER in Baltimore in early evening action Monday
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08-26-18 |
Reds v. Cubs OVER 10 |
Top |
0-9 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET
The wind is blowing out again this afternoon at Wrigley Field. Yesterday's game saw 16 runs scored and we expect another high-scoring match-up this afternoon. Look for today's game to pick up right where yesterday's game left off in a big way. The starting pitching match-up here should lead to plenty of pop from both lineups. The over is 13-5-1 in Homer Bailey's 19 starts versus the Cubs in his career. Also, when he most recently faced them he allowed 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings back in May. The last time he faced them at Wrigley Field (August of last year) he also allowed 6 earned runs and that was in 5 and 2 / 3 innings. Bailey enters this start having a dreadful season (1-11) and also he is trending the wrong direction. He is 0-3 in his last 3 starts and has allowed 29 hits in 14 and 2 / 3 innings over his past 3 starts. As for the Cubs Kyle Hendricks, he is off of a strong start in terms of earned runs allowed but note that he gave up 10 hits in that 7-inning stint. Hendricks has now allowed 25 hits in the 19 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The last two times he faced the Reds (both were this season) he allowed 4 runs each time. Though neither one of those starts went over the total, only 4 of his 12 starts against Cincinnati in his career have stayed under the total. The over is 17-8 the last 25 times the Cubs have hosted the Reds. The over is 14-7 in Cincy's Sunday games this season. The Cubs are getting their sticks going again at home as they've notched at least a dozen hits in 3 of their last 4 games at Wrigley Field. Another slugfest appears likely at Wrigley Field and we also like the additional value becoming available now as the early move on this total was from 10.5 down to a 10. Bet the OVER in the Chicago Cubs game in early afternoon action Sunday
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