08-25-18 |
Reds v. Cubs OVER 9.5 |
|
6-10 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs, Saturday at 2:20 PM ET
The wind is blowing out this afternoon at Wrigley Field. Yesterday's game was expected to be high-scoring (at one point the posted total was up to a 13) but it did not live up to its billing. Look for today's game to make up for that in a big way. The over is 9-4 in Luis Castillo's 13 road starts this season. Also, Castillo's starts are 11-3-1 to the over in day games. In divisional games, Castillo's starts are 8-3-1 to the over. As for the Cubs Jose Quintana, he is off of a strong start but had allowed 5 earned runs or more in 3 of his 4 prior starts. Also, Reds games have stayed under the total in 3 straight games. That hold some significance here as we are 5 months into the season and only 3 times this entire year have the Reds stayed under in 4 or more consecutive games. Bet the OVER in the Chicago Cubs game in early afternoon action Saturday
|
08-24-18 |
Nationals v. Mets OVER 8.5 |
|
0-3 |
Loss |
-113 |
25 h 30 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Washington Nationals @ New York Mets, Friday at 7:10 PM ET
Each of these teams are off of low-scoring losses yesterday afternoon but Friday's pitching match-up is going to allow both lineups a quick bounce back effort. The Mets Jason Vargas has decent numbers in his last two starts but he faced a Phillies team that has been struggling at the plate and a bad Orioles team. Even with the stats from those two starts included he has allowed 21 earned runs in 23 and 1 / 3 innings over his last 6 starts. Keep in mind, the Mets are 3-11 in his starts for a reason! The Nationals also start a pitcher whom is quite likely to get roughed up Friday. Gio Gonzalez gets the call for Washington and he has given up at least 5 earned runs in 4 of his last 6 starts! The Nationals are 2-10 in his last 12 starts and much of that is certainly due to his struggles. It is truly a miracle that both of these pitchers have "trended under" in their starts this season as both have struggled for much of this season. Of course this is what leads to late season line value which is what we love to capitalize on an we plan to do just that on Friday night. Bet the OVER in the New York Mets game in early evening action Friday
|
08-23-18 |
Royals v. Rays OVER 7 |
Top |
3-4 |
Push |
0 |
10 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET
The Royals Danny Duffy is in the wrong place at the wrong time. The southpaw is trying to come back from a shoulder problem. Duffy has given up 6 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Now he faces a Rays team that has notched 14 hits in each of the past two games. Behind Duffy is a Royals bullpen that is 14-28 with a 5.18 ERA this season which ranks them dead last in the majors. While the Rays pitching situation is certainly much better, this is still a total (7 runs) in an American League game that should prove to be far too low. Tampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow has certainly enjoyed some success since coming to Tampa Bay from Pittsburgh. However, his ERA with the Rays is 2 runs higher in night games compared to day games and this has been a long-term trend for him. With the Pirates this season Glasnow worked out of the bullpen and he had a 5.18 ERA in night games this season. Last year with Pittsburgh the right-hander went 1-6 with a 8.67 ERA in his 12 night game appearances (10 starts). Opponents hit .249 against him under the lights. So with the Royals sticks also contributing very well toward the low total on Thursday's match-up this one should easily fly over the total as the Rays stay hot at the plate and pound Duffy and a weak KC bullpen! Bet the OVER in Tampa Bay in early evening action Thursday
|
08-23-18 |
White Sox v. Tigers OVER 9 |
|
2-7 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 53 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET
Detroit has gone 2-1 to the over in Matthew Boyd's last 3 starts versus the White Sox. Overall, the Tigers left-hander has given up at least 4 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts as he enters this outing. Detroit has gone 5-1-1 to the over in their last 7 games versus divisional foes. As for the White Sox, after yesterday's 7-3 win over Minnesota, they are now 19-6 to the over in their last 25 games versus teams with a losing record on the season. Also, the White Sox are 3-1 to the over in James Shields last 4 starts away from home. The veteran right-hander has been hit hard as he has allowed 17 earned runs in 22 and 2 / 3 innings over those 4 outings. We expect more of the same in an afternoon affair at Comerica Park. Though certainly known as more of a pitcher-friendly park, the ball does carry a little better here in day games. Bet the OVER in Detroit in early afternoon action Thursday
|
08-22-18 |
Yankees v. Marlins OVER 7.5 |
|
3-9 |
Win
|
105 |
10 h 18 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - New York Yankees @ Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET
These teams combined to go 1 for 20 (.050 batting average!) with runners in scoring position last night. That is how a 12-inning game filled with quite a few baserunners ended up being a 2-1 Yankees win. In any event, that has led to some extra line value here as the opening total on this game was an 8 and it has already dropped to a 7.5 as the betting markets are also over-valuing these two pitchers. The Yankees recently acquired Lance Lynn had some great numbers in his early starts but anyone watching him realized he was getting much better results than he deserved based on the quality (or lack thereof) of his pitches. As expected, he came crashing back down to reality in his most recent starts as Lynn allowed 5 earned runs in just 4 innings versus Toronto. Now he faces a Miami lineup that had produced 19 runs in their past two games before last night's low-scoring loss. As for Marlins starter Trevor Richards, like Lynn, reality has set in over his last two starts after some surprisingly successful recent starts. The Miami right-hander has allowed multiple homers in each of his last two outings. Also, Richards gave up 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings in his most recent start. He'll be facing a Yankees lineup that had produced 28 runs in their last 3 games prior to yesterday's low-scoring 2-1 win. Although there is no DH, of course, in this game since this interleague match-up is in an NL park, this total is still far too low given the likely struggles of these two starting pitchers. Also, each bullpen had to put in extra work last night due to the game going 12 innings. Truly value all the way around in this one! Bet the OVER in Miami in early evening action Wednesday
|
08-21-18 |
Royals v. Rays -1.5 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 45 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Tampa Bay Rays Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET
As a road underdog in a money line range of +175 to +250, the Royals are on a 7-35 run. Of course we're not going to lay a huge money line price here with the Rays but we're happy to only pay a price of about -125 and bet on Tampa Bay on the run line at -1.5 runs in this one. TB is 7-3 this season when off of a shutout win and also 9-4 this year when they are at home in a game with a posted total of 7 runs or less. Of course not many runs are expected here, as you can tell by the low posted total on this game, but we expect the Rays to do plenty of damage here. Kansas City's Glenn Sparkman has made 11 MLB appearances (just 1 start) and he is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA and, worst of all, a .356 batting average against in these outings. He will be no match for the Rays Blake Snell whom has (incredibly!) allowed 1 earned run or less in 11 of his last 13 starts! Also, when Tampa wins with him on the mound they tend to win large! 5 of their 6 home wins with Snell on the mound have come by a multiple-run margin. 63 of the Royals 87 losses this season have come by at least a 2 run margin. 41 of the Rays 64 wins this season have come by at least two runs. You can see that the odds strongly favor a Tampa Bay win coming by at least 2 runs in this match-up. Lay the run line here and look for a home blowout. Bet the Tampa Bay Rays on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Tuesday
|
08-20-18 |
Reds v. Brewers OVER 9 |
|
2-5 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 38 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers, Monday at 8:10 PM ET
Brewers starter Chase Anderson has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts and those outings have spanned less than 15 innings. He continues to be homer-prone (24 allowed is highest total in NL) and he now faces a Reds team rolling with confidence after a huge 11-4 win yesterday. The Reds have averaged scoring 9 runs per game their past two games and they've averaged a dozen hits per game over their last 4 games. The problem for Cincinnati tonight will be starting pitcher - and aptly named - HOMER Bailey. The Reds right-hander has allowed 18 homers in his 16 starts this season. Bailey allowed 2 homers in his lone start - and a rough outing - versus Milwaukee earlier this season. Bailey is 1-10 with a 6.33 ERA this season and more troubles ensue tonight. He has allowed 10 earned runs in less than 9 innings spanning his last two starts. The over is 10-3 in Reds Monday games this season and also the over is 19-9 in Cincinnati's last 28 games versus teams with a winning record. The over is a long-term 8-3 when the Brewers are a home favorite in a range of -175 to -250. Also, the over is 13-6 in Milwaukee's last 19 games against teams with a losing record. Bet the OVER in Milwaukee in evening action Monday
|
08-20-18 |
White Sox v. Twins OVER 9 |
|
8-5 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, Monday at 7:10 PM ET
Lucas Giolito gets the start for the White Sox here. The ChiSox right-hander has a decent ERA against the Twins in 3 starts against Minnesota this season but he has walked 11 while striking out just 7 in those starts. In other words, he certainly has not been very impressive against Minny. The fact is that he has not been very impressive overall at the MLB level. Giolito has a 6.15 ERA on the season in his 24 starts. He'll be opposed by the Twins Stephen Gonsalves. The rookie southpaw certainly does not have overpowering velocity. Gonsalves will be facing a White Sox lineup that has exploded for an average of 6 runs per game in their last 7 games. Only 1 of those 7 games resulted in an under. The Twins are 4-1 to the over in their last 5 games and they've averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their last 6 games. The over is 17-5 in Chicago's last 22 games against teams with a losing record this season. We expect another one here as Giolito's struggles continue and Gonsalves has some growing pains in his first-ever MLB start. Bet the OVER in Minnesota in early evening action Monday
|
08-19-18 |
Angels v. Rangers OVER 11 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-112 |
4 h 47 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER - Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET
Even without Mike Trout, the Angels continue to love hitting at Texas. The Angels have scored an average of 8 runs per game in their 6 games played at Texas this season. Also, not only has Los Angeles continued to hit well in the first 3 games of this 4-game set, the Angels are 5-2 to the over in their last 7 games (all without Trout) as they've reached double digits in hits in 5 of those 7 games. They should have no trouble with the offerings of Yovani Gallardo. The right-hander has a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, Gallardo has an overall 6.39 ERA this season. This comes as no surprise as he has been on a downhill slide for years. In 2016 and 2017 combined, Gallardo went 11-18 with a 5.57 ERA! He is very hittable and the way the Angels have thrived in this ballpark he is likely to struggle this afternoon. As for Angels starter Jaime Barria, he does have strong numbers against the Rangers this season but that's because one of the two starts was in Anaheim and the one that was in Texas was in mid-April when the weather was much different and, in fact, the wind was blowing in from center at 20 miles per hour in that game. Now, in the heat of the summer and with the Rangers one of the top slugging teams in the majors when on their home field, look for much different results this afternoon. Yes, this total is a big number but, of the 6 match-ups between these teams played in Arlington this season, every single game has totaled at least 9 runs. In fact the average total runs scored has been 12.3 per game. With this pitching match-up, the fact that this is an afternoon game, and the way both teams are swinging the bats (Rangers averaging 7.4 runs per game last 7 home games) we look for these teams to easily get to a dozen runs (and then some) this afternoon. Bet the OVER in Texas in afternoon evening action Sunday
|
08-19-18 |
Blue Jays v. Yankees -1.5 |
|
2-10 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* New York Yankees Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Toronto Blue Jays, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET
Yankees have won 9 of their last 13 games and each of their last 7 wins have come by a margin of at least 2 runs. The Blue Jays have lost 20 of their last 33 games and all 20 of those losses have been defeats by a multiple-run margin! That means if you like the Yankees to win here you certainly can also like the strong odds (including 20 in a row!) that the win comes by two or more runs! By taking New York on the run line we only have to lay small juice (-125 range currently) and the Yankees J.A. Happ should dominate his former team. He is 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA since coming to the Yankees. Toronto's Ryan Borucki should prove to be no match for Happ. The Blue Jays left-hander has been roughed for 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts and walked 7 batters while striking out just 3 in those two outings! Bet the New York Yankees on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early afternoon action Sunday
|
08-18-18 |
Brewers +131 v. Cardinals |
|
2-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 23 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Milwaukee Brewers Money Line (+) @ St Louis Cardinals, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET
The Cardinals have not faced Wade Miley in over a year. Also, that lone game was the only time he has started against the Cards since the 2014 season. This lack of familiarity with Miley for the St Louis hitters is a big edge for the Brewers southpaw. The Milwaukee lefty enters this start having a fantastic 2.23 ERA in his 8 starts this season. The team record in Miley's road starts this season is a stellar 4-1. As for the Cardinals Miles Mikolas, the Brewers lineup will be seeing him for the 4th time already this year! This tends to be a big edge for the hitters and Mikolas did allowed 4 earned runs in 2 of his 3 starts against Milwaukee this season. Strikeout numbers for Mikolas are down in his last two starts and we look for the Brewers to "connect" against him early and often in this one. Milwaukee is 50-25 in night games this season! The Cardinals, long-term, are only 49-47 (-$20,400) as a home favorite in a money line range of -125 to -175. Ton of value with the road dog in this one. Bet Milwaukee on the money line in early evening action Saturday
|
08-18-18 |
Royals v. White Sox OVER 9 |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-111 |
7 h 55 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET
The over is 7-2 in Dylan Covey's last 9 starts. The White Sox right-hander has compiled a 9.15 ERA in these 9 outings. This means we're getting tremendous line value here with this O/U dropping from a 9.5 to a 9 and the fact that the Royals should pound Covey. The problem for Kansas City is that starting pitcher Brad Keller is facing a Chicago lineup that has averaged scoring 6.6 runs per game their last 5 games as they continue to pound out big hits! The White Sox are 4-0-1 to the over their last 5 games and KC is 5-2 to the over their last 7 games. Keller has a mediocre 4.18 ERA in road starts this season and has an ERA of 7.00 in his two road starts against the White Sox this season. We look for more of the same here. Other than when Duffy started against the White Sox, no other Royals starter has enjoyed much success at Chicago this season. In fact the over is 5-0 in Kansas City's other 5 games at Guaranteed Rate Field this season! Bet the OVER in Kansas City in early evening action Saturday
|
08-17-18 |
Marlins v. Nationals OVER 8 |
|
2-8 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 3 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals, Friday at 7:05 PM ET
Max Scherzer has made 25 starts this season for the Nationals. He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 21 of those starts. Of the four starts where he allowed 3 earned runs or more his two worst performances of the season were EACH against the Marlins as he allowed 4 earned runs in a start TWICE against Miami this season. The point is that the Marlins have done something twice this season that no other team has even done once. The key to the value with this play is that even if Scherzer doesn't give up much, the Nationals lineup could very well get this total all by themselves. The over is 5-2 in Scherzer's last 7 starts but also note that the over is 3-1 in the Nats four home games versus the Marlins this season. The Nationals have averaged scoring 9 runs per game in those 4 games in DC and they'll be facing a struggling Daniel Straily. The Miami right-hander has walked 9 batters in 10 innings over his last two starts. Also, in his start prior to these two he gave up 11 hits in less than 4 innings of work! With a 1.90 WHIP in his last 3 starts, Straily is in poor current form to say the least! As a road dog of +250 or more, the Marlins are 4-0 to the over this season and, long-term, only 1 game in their last 8 has stayed under when in this big dog role away from home. The Nationals bullpen barely hung on against the Cardinals last night but overall that pen is not a strength as they've lost some key arms to injury and trades. As for Miami, certainly the Marlins bullpen is a weakness with their 5.15 ERA ranking them dead last in the National League. Bet the OVER in Washington in early evening action Friday
|
08-16-18 |
Nationals v. Cardinals -120 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-120 |
7 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 10* St Louis Cardinals Money Line (-) vs Washington Nationals, Thursday at 7:15 PM ET
The Cardinals are the hottest team in baseball as they have now won 8 straight games. Keep in mind yesterday's win over Washington was a shutout until the Nationals got a pair of runs in the top of the 9th. While St Louis has been red hot, the Nats are on the fade again as they've lost 4 straight games. Tanner Roark gets the start here and he is off of a win versus the Cubs but he threw 117 pitches in that start and did give up 9 hits in 7 and 2 / 3 innings. Though that outing followed back to back solid starts the other two wins came against the last place Reds and a Mets team that has had a very tough season. Now Roark faces a Cardinals team that is red hot and he is 1-2 with a 6.92 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in his 3 career starts versus St Louis. Allowing two base-runners per inning gets you into trouble rather quickly at the MLB level and that 2.00 WHIP will haunt him here at Busch Stadium where he has averaged just 4 innings in his two career starts and he lost both of those outings. The Cardinals counter with Luke Weaver whom has a number of big edges. One is that, unlike Roark, Weaver is well-rested here. He missed his last start but it was due to something very minor (a cut on his index finger) and he comes in with a fresh arm for this outing. The other big edge is that the Nationals have never faced him! This is often the biggest of edges for a hurler and, in this case, Weaver has been in solid form ever since some ups and downs the first few months of this season. Since July 1st, Weaver has a 3.31 ERA in his last 6 starts. The Cardinals have won both of Weaver's home starts since the All Star break. Washington is 5-14 their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. The Cardinals are 15-4 their last 19 games overall. Clearly a case of two teams going in opposite directions and excellent line value here on the small home favorite. Bet St Louis on the money line in early evening action Thursday
|
08-15-18 |
Indians v. Reds OVER 9 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Cleveland Indians @ Cincinnati Reds, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET
The Indians Shane Bieber is off of his best start of the season. That one good start does not change the fact that he had a 6.34 ERA in his 6 prior starts combined! The fact is that Bieber had been slumping and it was no fluke as he had allowed 42 hits in 32 and 2 / 3 innings over those 6 starts. The Reds have a struggling pitcher of their own taking the mound in this one. Robert Stephenson gets the call for Cincinnati and he gave up 3 earned runs in just 4 innings while walking 5 batters in his start last week. Though that is only MLB appearance this season, he is now 7-10 with a 5.16 ERA in his 34 MLB games (20 starts). Stephenson has been tough to hit at the AAA level but that was the same case last year too and then he struggled in the bigs. Some guys just always struggle making that last step up from AAA ball to the majors and Stephenson has proven to be one of those guys thus far. The fact he is facing a red hot Indians lineup today certainly won't help him. Cleveland has won 9 of its last 11 games and their last 3 wins have seen them average scoring 9 runs per game! Look for another big game at the plate for the Tribe but, unlike last night, the Reds join the party tonight and crush Bieber. Bet the OVER in Cincinnati in early evening action Wednesday
|
08-15-18 |
Brewers v. Cubs OVER 9 |
|
4-8 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 11 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs, Wednesday at 2:20 PM ET
The Brewers scored 7 runs yesterday on a warm, hitter-friendly afternoon at Wrigley Field and yet the game stayed under a total of just 9 or 9.5 runs. How unlikely was that? It was about as unlikely as the Cubs actually getting shut out in weather conditions like that in their own park! In other words, look for a much different result this afternoon as the Chicago bats bounce back while Milwaukee's sticks continue to roll. The total on this game opened up at a 10.5 and has dropped to a 9.5 (and even some books are as low as 9 now). This means a big edge for over players in this game as the Brewers Junior Guerra has a 9.64 ERA in his last 3 road starts. All 3 of those went over the total. As for the Cubs Kyle Hendricks, he has been rocked for 36 hits in 26 and 1 / 3 innings over his last 5 home starts. Look for a wild one at Wrigley today! Bet the OVER in the Chicago Cubs game in afternoon action Wednesday
|
08-14-18 |
Blue Jays v. Royals OVER 9 |
|
6-5 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 49 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:15 PM ET
Catching the best value with totals is oftentimes about fading market perception at the ideal time. That is precisely what we're doing here. The very first O/U that was posted on this game was a 9.5 but it quickly dropped to a 9. Yesterday's game was a 3 to 1 Royals win that stayed well under the total. However, Kansas City entered yesterday's game having gone 7-3-1 to the over in their 11 prior games. As for the Blue Jays, they had been trending over in road games in a big way. Toronto entered yesterday's game having gone 8-2 to the over in their 10 prior games away from home. Jays starter Ryan Borucki is off of a win over the Red Sox but he was fortunate as he gave up 4 earned runs on 9 hits in only 5 innings of work. The southpaw has, in fact, been quite fortunate of late as he walked more than he struck out against the Red Sox and Borucki's strikeout numbers are down in his last two starts with a total of just 4 in 13 innings. The opponent putting the ball in play on a hitter-friendly night in Kansas City at Kauffman Stadium will lead to trouble for the left-hander. Some storms are expected to move through KC this afternoon but should be out of the way by the time first pitch is set for this one and the wind, even though not strong, will be blowing out. The Royals are starting Heath Fillmyer and he is off of a strong start versus the Cubs but this was preceded by the right-hander compiling a 6.75 ERA in his two prior starts with as many walks as strikeouts. Kansas City also ranks as the league's worst bullpen plus the Blue Jays rank in the bottom third of the majors in terms of their bullpen ERA. Look for plenty of runs in this one as the over trending for both of these teams resumes in a big way here. Bet the OVER in Kansas City in evening action Tuesday
|
08-13-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Rangers +1.5 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 3 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Texas Rangers Run Line (+1.5 runs) vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 8:10 PM ET
The Diamondbacks are off of a big road win yesterday but their .231 batting average away from home this season ranks them 14th out of the 15 National League teams. The Rangers are off of an ugly road loss in the Bronx yesterday but are now back home where their .446 slugging percentage ranks them 5th out of all 30 MLB teams. Texas had won 10 of their last 14 games before suffering back to back losses to wrap up their series with the Yankees. Bartolo Colon got the milestone win he had been waiting for (most wins ever by a Latin American born pitcher) in his most recent start. Though his recent start versus the Diamondbacks was a tough one, the majority of the runs came with two outs and he pitched better in that start at Arizona than what the stats show. Buoyed by the big win he got in his most recent home start, Colon comes up with another strong effort tonight against a lineup that is known for not traveling well. The Diamondbacks starter tonight will be Zack Greinke. Though he excels at home, Greinke's road ERA is more than a full run higher on the road compared to in Arizona this season and last season was similar as he went just 4-6 on the road. This season when he has pitched on the road in inter-league action he has allowed 18 baserunners in 12 and 1 / 3 innings. Those starts were at Oakland and in Anaheim. That said, Arlington is a much tougher place to pitch. Greinke allowed 4 earned runs the last time he pitched at Texas and the Rangers come into this homestand having averaged scoring 8.9 runs per game in the 7 games on their last homestand! We expect the Texas offense to continue their hot home hitting while the Dbacks bats fizzle on the road in this one. We're grabbing the run line for added value here as we can get +1.5 runs at little to no juice! Prior to yesterday's big Diamondbacks win, they had a record of 4-8 (at -1.5 runs) in their prior dozen games. Bet the Texas Rangers on the run line (+1.5 runs) in evening action Monday
|
08-12-18 |
Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 53 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET
The Rockies Chad Bettis recently returned from the disabled list and he had an awful outing in his first start since coming back. That home outing versus the Pirates continued his long-term struggles at home this season. Bettis has not registered a victory in any of his 8 starts this season at Coors Field and the right-hander has compiled a 9.73 ERA in those outings. The Dodgers got to him for 5 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work when they faced him at Colorado earlier this season. As for Los Angeles starter Rich Hill, the southpaw has allowed only 5 earned runs on just 13 hits while striking out 18 in the 16 and 2 / 3 innings over his last 3 starts versus the Rockies. Also, Hill enters this start in top current form as he has a 1.47 ERA in his last 3 starts and has surrendered only 12 hits in the 18 and 1 / 3 innings over those three outings. The Dodgers are 4-0 in his last 4 starts and all 4 victories came by at least two runs. While LA is a bit pricey on the money line in this game we can get value by backing Los Angeles on the run line in this one as they are in a "pick'em" price range at -1.5 runs. Considering 7 of the 9 losses the Rockies have with Bettis on the mound this season have come by 2 or more runs, we see strong odds that this one turns into a road rout decided by a multiple run margin. The Dodgers are 19-8 the last 27 times they entered a game off of a loss and also 5-2 the last 7 times they've entered a game off of consecutive losses. LA is also 13-6 in Sunday games this season while the Rockies are 6-12 on Sundays this year Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line (-1.5 runs) in afternoon action Sunday
|
08-12-18 |
Rangers v. Yankees OVER 9 |
|
2-7 |
Push |
0 |
3 h 5 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET
Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the Yankees went 1 for 6 with runners in scoring position and the Rangers went 1 for 11 with runners in scoring position. For the game Texas left 11 men on base. We don't expect a repeat of that with CC Sabathia on the mound for the Yankees. The veteran southpaw has given up 13 earned runs in 11 and 1 / 3 innings over his last two starts versus Texas. Sabathia will be opposed by the Rangers Martin Perez. The fellow southpaw has an 8.52 ERA in his three career starts against the Yanks. This one sets up well to be a slugfest and the over is 18-6 in Sabathia's career starts against Texas. The over is 21-13 this season in Rangers games against left-handed starters. Bet the OVER in the New York Yankees game in early afternoon action Sunday
|
08-11-18 |
Phillies -1.5 v. Padres |
|
5-1 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 26 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ San Diego Padres, Saturday at 8:40 PM ET
The Phillies have not been scoring well recently and that culminated in a shutout loss last night. The key to the value with tonight's pick is that Philadelphia has high probability of a bounce back at the plate considering they are facing Walter Lockett while, at the same time, the Phillies should get a dominating effort from their own starter. Aaron Nola has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and the Phillies are 15-4 in his last 19 starts. Nola has a 2.47 ERA on the season and the Padres are off of back to back wins but they've haven't managed to win 3 straight games in over two months! San Diego is 0-5 the last 5 times they've entered a game off of back to back wins. Also, 57 of the Padres 71 losses this season have come by 2 or more runs. They send Lockett to the mound and the past 3 seasons just look at the opponents batting average at the AAA level: .319, .289, .280. The right-hander has struggled to retire minor league hitters so it is no big surprise that in his first three appearances at the MLB level (including two starts), Lockett is 0-2 with a 9.28 ERA and opponents are hitting .354 against him! The Phillies are off of back to back losses but only twice in the past two months have they had a losing streak of 3 or more games. Philadelphia is 11-6 in Saturday games this season.. The Phillies are also 31-19 this season when off of a loss. The Padres are 15-30 this season when off of a win and this one has the proper ingredients for a road rout blowout. Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the run line (-1.5 runs) in evening action Saturday
|
08-10-18 |
Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 |
|
7-0 |
Loss |
-101 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays, Friday at 7:10 PM ET
Blake Snell only went 4 innings in his lone start since the All Star break. The Rays southpaw allowed 3 earned runs in just 3 innings in his most recent road start. He has struggled in recent meetings with Toronto as Snell has compiled a 5.60 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Blue Jays. The over is 8-4 in the Rays last 12 games. The over is 14-3 in the Jays last 17 games. Toronto starter Marco Estrada is off of a great start at Seattle. However, the Blue Jays right-hander has allowed 12 earned runs in 7 and 2 / 3 innings over his last two starts versus the Rays at the Rogers Centre. Snell's last two starts at Toronto both went over the total and Estrada's last two starts hosting Tampa Bay also went over the total. Look for the over trending of both of these teams to continue in a big way here. Bet the OVER in Toronto in early evening action Friday
|
08-10-18 |
Nationals v. Cubs OVER 8.5 |
|
2-3 |
Loss |
-120 |
3 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs, Friday at 2:20 PM ET
This total is an 8.5 because of a light wind blowing in at Wrigley Field this afternoon. This is one of those situations where the weather (though one would deem unfavorable) actually ends up being favorable for the over because of the line value it creates. This is a low total considering that the Cubs Kyle Hendricks has given up 28 hits in 22 and 1 / 3 innings over his last 4 home starts. It is a bit of a "fluke" that those games went just 1-3 to the over and all the hits the Chicago right-hander is giving up will eventually lead to plenty of runs. That is a big part of the value in this one and so too is the Nationals Jeremy Hellickson. The Washington right-hander has given up 6 earned runs on 15 hits in just 9 and 2 / 3 innings over his last two road starts. Now he faces a Cubs team hungry to bounce back off of an embarrassing 9-0 loss at Kansas City Wednesday. The Cubs had previously averaged scoring 5 runs per game in going 6-3 in their 9 prior games. The Nationals enter this game having gone 7-3 their last 10 game as they've averaged scoring 6.7 runs per game during this hot streak. We are forecasting that the over improves to 11-6 in Washington's Friday games on the season as this matinee match-up flies over the low number. Bet the OVER in the Chicago Cubs game in afternoon action Friday
|
08-09-18 |
Rangers v. Yankees -1.5 |
Top |
3-7 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Texas Rangers, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET
Rangers starter Ariel Jurado has been a pleasant surprise in terms of his overall numbers but the fact is that he has only made 3 starts and only 1 was a bit shocking in terms of quality. Jurado recently held the defending world champion Astros to 1 run in 6 innings. However, in his other two starts he faced two bad teams (Orioles and White Sox) but allowed 6 earned runs on 12 hits and 4 walks in a total of only 9 and 2 / 3 frames. In other words, he was far from dominant and he hasn't recorded many strikeouts either. Additionally, Jurado had never pitched above the AA level of the minors before being called up by the Rangers! This is a guy that has been hit at a .270 level in the minors, never even pitched at AAA, struggled against the O's and Pale Hose, and now is pitching at Yankee Stadium tonight. We don't expect this to go well at all for Jurado. His Rangers teammates tend to hit well at home but they're a different team on the road and tonight they're facing a tough assignment too. The Yankees are starting J.A. Happ and the southpaw has a 1.23 ERA in his last 3 starts (1 being his Yankees debut) and the lefty also has a 1.89 ERA in going a perfect 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus the Rangers. Happ registered 9 strikeouts in 7 innings when he faced them in April and Texas is known for striking out far too much especially when on the road. Away from home, the Rangers batting average (.230) and strikeouts per game (10) ranks them near dead last in the majors in each category. Texas is 25-43 against teams with a winning record this season while the Yankees are 34-21 against teams with a losing record this season. 49 of the Rangers 65 losses this season have come by 2 or more runs. 53 of the Yankees 71 wins this season have been by decided by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Great value here with the run line available at a very low price. Lay it! Bet the New York Yankees on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Thursday
|
08-08-18 |
Cardinals v. Marlins OVER 8 |
|
7-1 |
Push |
0 |
7 h 9 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - St Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET
The Cardinals John Gant has not fared well in a starting role. This season St Louis is 2-7 in his starts. Also, he is coming off of a rough outing at Pittsburgh where he gave up 6 earned runs in just 4 innings. Only one of his four road starts this season stayed under the total. The Marlins Trevor Richards is having a strong season but he did struggle and allow 3 earned runs on 7 hits in only 5 innings in his only career start versus the Cardinals and that was recent - in June. The Cards Gant got hit hard in his lone career start at Miami. Both these teams have been trending under recently but this pitching match-up is the ideal one to bring both lineups quickly back to life. Also, the Marlins bullpen ERA ranks them dead last in the National League and the Cardinals bullpen ERA ranks them in the bottom third of the majors. Bet the OVER in Miami in early evening action Wednesday
|
08-08-18 |
Red Sox -143 v. Blue Jays |
|
10-5 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 1 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Boston Red Sox Money Line (-) @ Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET
The Blue Jays Mike Hauschild had a great linescore out of the bullpen in long relief in his first appearance with Toronto. However, he was hit harder than what you can see by simply looking at a boxscore. At the same time, the reason he was released by pitching-poor Texas was certainly NOT because of any great success he has had recently. In fact, he was hit quite hard at the AAA level of the minors in the Rangers organization and now he faces one of the toughest lineups in the majors. We do not expect this to go well at all for Hauschild and he is unlikely to get much run support either. Boston will have southpaw Brian Johnson on the mound and he continues to pitch well in spot start duty for Boston. The lefty has led the Red Sox to a 5-2 mark in his 7 starts while compiling a solid 2.57 ERA in those outings. Though he had some struggles in his recent start versus the Yankees he did strikeout 11 batters in 5 innings and the Blue Jays certainly aren't the caliber of team that the Yankees are! The Red Sox have won 9 of their last 10 games and are offering great line value in this moderate price range against a Blue Jays team that has lost 9 of its last 14. Bet Boston on the money line in early evening action Wednesday
|
08-07-18 |
Yankees v. White Sox OVER 9 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 39 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET
The Yankees were robbed of a 3-run homer on an amazing catch over the center field wall in last night's game. Ultimately that prevented the game going over the total as it finished 7-0. The White Sox should respond after a home shutout and certainly the Yankees Lance Lynn wasn't nearly as dominant as the line score would lead you to believe. Chicago is likely to fare much better against a pitcher, CC Sabathia, whom they have seen plenty of through the years. Sabathia is winless in his last two starts versus the White Sox and has compiled a 6.39 ERA in those two outings. Overall, he enters this start having struggled of late. The Yankees southpaw has a 6.38 ERA in his last four starts. Speaking of struggling, Chicago's Reynaldo Lopez has a 7.22 ERA in his last 5 starts and the over is 7-1 in his last 8 starts! The over was 8-3 in the 11 White Sox games prior to last night's home shutout. They get their lineup back on track tonight against Sabathia but Lopez gets hit hard again too and this one should fly over the total as a result. Bet the OVER in the Chicago White Sox game in evening action Tuesday
|
08-06-18 |
Cubs -1.5 v. Royals |
|
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 46 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Chicago Cubs Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Kansas City Royals, Monday at 8:15 PM ET
The Royals lost yesterday at Minnesota and that dropped them to 3-8 in their last 11 games. Although Kansas City is back home for this inter-league series with the Cubs, that is not necessarily a positive for the downtrodden Royals. KC ranks dead-last in the majors with their home record of 15-37 easily putting them in the cellar in that department. Every other team in the American League and every team in the National League has at least 20 home wins this season. The Cubs newly acquired Cole Hamels rolled in his first start for Chicago and should enjoy great success again here. Hamels has allowed 0 earned runs on just 8 hits in the 14 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last two starts at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals counter with a struggling Jake Junis. The Kansas City right-hander has allowed 11 runs (7 earned) in the 10 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last two starts. Junis won his most recent start despite not being very effective and that was his first win since May 18th! He is 3-7 with a 5.37 ERA at home this season while Hamels is 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA on the road this year. The Royals are 0-10 the last 10 times they've been a home dog of +175 or more on the money line. We like the value on the run line here with the Cubs available at a very fair price (130 range) by laying the 1.5 runs. Of the Cubs 29 road wins this season, an astonishing 27 have come by 2 or more runs! Look for yet another road rout here as Chicago's lineup responds off of a loss yesterday plus the Cubs have a huge pitching edge here. Bet the Chicago Cubs on the run line (-1.5 runs) in evening action Monday
|
08-05-18 |
Tigers v. A's -1.5 |
Top |
0-6 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 56 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oakland A's Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Detroit Tigers, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
Since the All Star break the Tigers are dead last in the majors with a paltry .315 slugging percentage. Conversely, the A's are near the top of the majors with a .481 slugging percentage since the All Star break. Oakland is a red hot 32-10 their last 42 games. The Tigers, on the other hand, are 11-27 their last 38 games. Clearly this is a case of two teams going opposite directions right now and the A's current 5-game winning streak is the best in the majors. Also, Detroit is 2-17 this season in road games where their money line ranges from +175 to +250. Oakland is a fantastic 37-11 this season in games against teams with a losing record! The Tigers are starting Francisco Liriano and he has a 9.90 ERA in his last 3 starts. The A's are starting Trevor Cahill and the right-hander has loved pitched at home this season! Cahill has a superb 1.13 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his home starts this season. While Cahill can be expected to dominate at home, note that Liriano went 2-7 with a 5.54 ERA on the road in 2016 and 1-3 with a 7.79 ERA on the road in 2017. Couple this with his recent struggles and you can see why a home blowout is expected here. While the money line is big in this game, the run line allows you to lay a price of only about -120 and certainly we look for the A's win to come by a margin of 2 or more runs today. Bet Oakland on the run line (-1.5 runs) in late afternoon action Sunday
|
08-05-18 |
Padres v. Cubs OVER 12 |
|
10-6 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 31 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET
The total is set at 12 in this one because the wind is blowing out at Wrigley Field on a hot afternoon in Chicago. Weather like this tends to turn Cubs games into absolute slugfests and that is why we're going over the big total in this one as this one should easily get past a dozen runs. The Padres Joey Lucchesi missed his start yesterday due to a stomach virus. His most recent start saw him struggle with his curveball so he had to go to his fastball too much and he got rocked. The combination of these struggles on a hitter-friendly afternoon at Wrigley Field is an invitation for destruction. The Padres southpaw gave up 3 homers in his most recent start and is in trouble again here. Yesterday's day game had no business staying under the total as the Cubs loaded the bases in the bottom of the 7th with no one out but didn't score. They'll make up for that today in a big way here plus the Padres bats should crush the ball too. Cubs starter Jon Lester has an 8.36 ERA in his last 3 starts and has allowed 4 homers in the 14 innings over those 3 starts! The over is 6-1 in Lester's last 7 starts. Bet the OVER in the Chicago Cubs game in early afternoon action Sunday
|
08-04-18 |
Astros +126 v. Dodgers |
|
14-0 |
Win
|
126 |
9 h 2 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Houston Astros Money Line (+) @ Los Angeles Dodgers, Saturday at 9:05 PM ET
The Astros Lance McCullers, despite allowing 4 runs (3 earned) in 5 and 1 / 3 innings, definitely was back on track in his most recent start. McCullers struck out 11 and walked none in an effort versus the Rangers that was more impressive than the stat lines show. He is 6-3 on the road this season and the Astros are being vastly undervalued by the markets in this one. The line on this game opened up at a pick'em price but the money line is now all the way up to a -140 on the Dodgers Saturday morning. This is offering fantastic underdog value with the defending World Champs. Certainly Los Angeles wants revenge from the World Series. However, the issue for the Dodgers here is that Kenta Maeda has given up 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts and he gave up 3 homers along the way. His most recent outing was at home against the Brewers and he struggled with his command and then when he did find the plate Milwaukee made him pay in a big way. Maeda is only 3-5 in his home starts this season. Houston is 19-10 this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The Astros also are a fantastic 38-17 in road games this season. The Dodgers are only 10-10 in Saturday games and 25-25 when off of a loss. Bet Houston on the money line in late evening action Saturday
|
08-03-18 |
Marlins v. Phillies -165 |
|
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Miami Marlins, Friday at 7:05 PM ET
Even though the Phillies are a rather big favorite here one could argue that they easily should be a much larger favorite in this match-up. Philadelphia starter Vincent Velasquez has allowed only 21 hits while striking out 38 in the 39 innings spanning his last 7 starts. The Phillies right-hander has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 10 of his last 12 starts. Though the Marlins Trevor Richards has also been pitching well, he was hit very hard at Citizens Bank Park earlier this season. Also, Velasquez is 3-1 with a spectacular 2.63 ERA in his 7 career starts versus Miami. He has a 1.50 ERA in his most recent pair of starts versus the Marlins. With the Phillies electrifying clutch win in the bottom of the 9th yesterday they carry momentum into this game plus they are now 11-3 in their last 14 home games. Miami is 4-10 in their last 14 road games. On the season the Marlins are also 4-10 in road games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. The Phillies are 22-11 this season in home games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. Richards has a 5.11 ERA in his road starts this season. Velasquez and his teammates roll in this one! Lay the price with the home favorite and look for the blowout win in this one! Bet Philadelphia on the money line in early evening action Friday
|
08-02-18 |
Yankees v. Red Sox -107 |
|
7-15 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 23 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Boston Red Sox Money Line (-) vs New York Yankees, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET
The Red Sox opened up in the range of -130 as a favorite in this game but the line has been driven down to nearly a pick price on this key game. This has a lot do with CC Sabathia being a regular starter and Brian Johnson being a fill-in starter. However, the problem with that analysis is that Boston is the better overall team and Johnson also could hold a surprising edge in this match-up. The reason for that is that the Yankees aren't very familiar with him. Of the guys that have faced him Stanton is 2 for 2 but everyone else is 0 for 10. As for Sabathia, of course the Red Sox hitters have seen plenty of the veteran through the years. His most recent start against Boston was a good one but he struggled against them in the prior start. Plus this time they get him at Fenway Park. Boston is one of the best hitting teams in the majors when they are at home. The Yankees lineup has been hurting without the injured Judge. The Red Sox should hit Sabathia hard as his full-season ERA is nearly two runs higher on the road compared to at home. The veteran lefty has given up 20 hits in his last 16 innings on the road and he has a 7.59 ERA in his last two starts away from home. The Red Sox are 4-2 in Johnson's 6 starts this season and he has compiled a stellar 1.80 ERA as a spot starter for the Sox this season. Bet Boston on the money line in early evening action Thursday
|
08-01-18 |
Rockies v. Cardinals OVER 8 |
|
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 11 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Colorado Rockies @ St Louis Cardinals, Wednesday at 8:15 PM ET
The Rockies won last night's game 6-3 and the over is 20-8 this season in Colorado's road games where their money line is in a range of -125 to +125. This season only 9 of the Rockies 26 games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs have resulted in an under. The over is on a 12-6 run in Cardinals games against teams with a winning record. Luke Weaver gets the start for St Louis here and he has a 2.00 WHIP in his last two games. He has been fortunate his ERA is "only" 4.50 in those two starts as there have been plenty of scoring opportunities for the opposition. Weaver is only 1-4 in his 9 home starts and he has a 5.04 ERA in those games. Colorado's Kyle Freeland has a much higher ERA on the road than at home this season. Though his overall numbers are certainly still impressive on the season, the Rockies left-hander did allow 4 earned runs in just 5 innings in his most recent road start. Freeland was hit hard by the Cardinals in his lone start versus them (last season). The Cards Weaver hasn't faced the Rockies in over a year but that start late in the 2016 season saw him get crushed for 6 earned runs in just 2 innings. Bet the OVER in St Louis in evening action Wednesday
|
07-31-18 |
Rockies +109 v. Cardinals |
|
6-3 |
Win
|
109 |
6 h 5 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Colorado Rockies Money Line (+) @ St Louis Cardinals, Tuesday at 8:15 PM ET
The Rockies Jon Gray has been lights out since spending a little time at the AAA level in the minors. Since his return, Gray has allowed only 2 earned runs on just 6 hits in the 14 and 1 / 3 innings spanning two starts. Also, both of those starts were at home at hitter-friendly Coors Field. The right-hander is now taking on a Cardinals team that certainly has not been a powerhouse at the plate. Not only are the Rockies 4-0 in Gray's last 4 starts, he also is a solid 7-4 in night games this season with a 4.11 ERA and he has held hitters to a .240 batting average under the lights this year. Last season Gray went 7-4 with a 3.56 ERA in night games. He has pitched well under the lights while the Cardinals Jack Flaherty has not produced a quality start (at least 6 innings, 3 or less earned runs) in any of his last 6 starts. The Cards are just 1-6 in Flaherty's last 7 starts and he has a 4.61 ERA in his last 6 starts. Despite blowing a late 4-1 lead and losing in extra innings yesterday, the Rockies are a red hot 17-6 their last 23 games against teams with a winning record. Since late June, the Cardinals are 3-9 when off of a win! We see every reason to believe these trends continue tonight as the Rockies bounce back after yesterday's loss behind another strong performance from Gray! Bet Colorado on the money line in evening action Tuesday
|
07-30-18 |
Blue Jays v. A's OVER 8.5 |
|
1-10 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland A's, Monday at 10:05 PM ET
This total has dropped from an opener of 9 down to an 8.5 in most books by mid-day Monday. We're happy to take advantage of the additional value here as the Toronto starter, Marco Estrada, enters this outing having struggled with a recent injury that landed him on the DL. Then, during his rehab he has dealt with another injury (blister) that could flare up again here. In his last two starts before going on the disabled list he struggled and compiled a total of only 5 and 1 / 3 innings. Estrada also got roughed up in his most recent start at Oakland and the A's already saw him this season in Toronto so they'll take advantage of a second look at him here. The A's starter Monday is Edwin Jackson and he has allowed 3 homers in his last two starts. Jackson has compiled a 6.75 ERA in those two outings and he now faces a Jays team that is 4-0 to the over in their last 4 games as they've averaged 7 runs per game during this stretch. The A's struggled at the plate in their weekend series at Colorado but they entered that series having averaged 8.5 runs per game in their 6 prior games and that included a pair of home games in the 6-game winning streak. Look for the hot hitting to quickly resume at home for the A's. The over is 12-6 in Toronto's games as a road dog in a range of +125 to +175. We look for the over to improve to 5-2 this season when the Athletics enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Bet the OVER in Oakland in late night action Monday
|
07-29-18 |
Mariners +108 v. Angels |
|
8-5 |
Win
|
108 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Seattle Mariners Money Line (+) @ Los Angeles Angels, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
The Mariners are 26-15 when off of a loss this season. Seattle is 44-26 against right-handed starters this season. The M's are 12-4 in the last 16 starts that Marco Gonzales has made. The southpaw should enjoy success against an Angels team that is 10-20 when facing left-handed starters this season. Not only are the Mariners 4-0 in his last 4 starts they also are 4-0 in his starts versus Los Angeles this season. The Angels are starting Felix Pena here and he has walked 6 in his last 10 innings. Pena is still adjusting to life as a starter at the MLB level as he was used exclusively as a reliever each of the past two seasons and this will be just the 7th start of his MLB career. The Mariners rank 5th in the majors for batting average in away games this season and this one turns into a road rout. Bet Seattle on the money line in late afternoon action Sunday
|
07-29-18 |
Brewers v. Giants OVER 7.5 |
|
5-8 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 20 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET
This total has plummeted from an opener of 8.5 down to a 7.5 in most books Sunday morning. We're happy to take advantage of the additional value here as the Brewers Junior Guerra has allowed 10 earned runs on 17 hits in 10 innings spanning his last two road starts. Also, when he faced the Giants last season he allowed 10 baserunners in 5 innings and was fortunate to limit the damage. Sunday he is opposed by San Francisco's Andrew Suarez. The Giants left-hander has a 5.91 ERA in his last two starts and was hit hard in his most recent outing plus only struck out 1 in that one. San Francisco is 20-12 to the over in home games with a money line in a range of -125 to +125. Milwaukee, in 107 games versus left-handed starters since the start of the 2016 season has had just 43 unders in those 107 games. The Brewers have averaged 10.4 hits per game their last 5 games and 5.2 runs per game their last 6 games. Bet the OVER in San Francisco in late afternoon action Sunday
|
07-28-18 |
Indians v. Tigers OVER 8.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-118 |
7 h 42 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET
This total opened up at a 9.5 in a lot of shops but then dropped to a solid 9 across the board this morning. Great value with the over here. With yesterday's 8-3 win, Cleveland is 8-2 to the over their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. They are likely to pound Detroit southpaw Blaine Hardy in this match-up as the Indians are the #1 team in the majors against left-handed pitching this season with a .273 batting average on the year. Cleveland is also the #1 offense in the majors in the month of July. The Indians are averaging 6.4 runs per game and hitting .284 this month! Though the Tigers certainly haven't been producing nearly as well as the Tribe has at the plate, Detroit had scored at least 4 runs in 5 of their 7 prior games before being held to just 3 runs in last night's loss. The Tigers did reach double digits in hits last night for the 3rd time in their last 4 games. The Tigers big issue this evening will be that Hardy is on the mound. The Detroit southpaw has given up 10 runs (7 earned) in 7 innings over his last two starts and both of those starts were at home. Behind him is a Tigers bullpen that has allowed opponents to hit .262 this season and that ranks them as one of the worst pens in the majors while the Indians bullpen (5.14 ERA and 8-16 record) also ranks as one of the worst pens in the majors. The over is 3-0 in Hardy's last 3 home starts. The over is 6-3-2 (67%) in Mike Clevinger's night starts this season. Clevinger is off of a strong start at Texas but he had allowed 28 hits over 23 innings spanning his 4 prior starts and 10 runs (9 earned) spanning the 12 innings in his 2 prior starts. The Tigers are very familiar with him and are catching him at the right time to do some damage this evening at Comerica Park. Bet the OVER in Detroit in early evening action Saturday
|
07-27-18 |
Mets +139 v. Pirates |
|
4-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 3 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* New York Mets Money Line (+) @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Friday at 7:05 PM ET
The majority of the best this morning have come in on Pittsburgh but the bigger money has come in on the Mets. Of course this makes sense because the public is not going to be backing a team like the Mets with a pitcher like Jason Vargas on the mound. So what this tells you is that the sharp money (and bigger money) is coming in on New York. Why? Well Vargas actually had been pitching quite well before getting rocked at Coors Field and then landing on the DL. The fact is that many pitchers struggle when pitching at Colorado and, despite his ugly full season numbers, the Mets southpaw had pitched well in 4 of his 5 starts prior to getting hammered by the Rockies. Look for Vargas to take advantage of facing a Pirates team whose recent hot streak has come crashing back down to earth with back to back losses. Also, yesterday's loss to the Mets (and another left-hand pitcher) dropped the Pirates to just 11-16 this season in games against left-handed starters. Vargas has looked very sharp in his rehab starts coming off of the DL and he appears to be a pitcher on a mission. The Mets have now won 3 straight games and they are 7-3 this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more consecutive games. The Pirates are starting Ivan Nova and he is off of a quality outing at Cincinnati. However, the Pittsburgh right-hander entered that start having allowed 11 earned runs on 24 hits in the 15 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his 3 prior starts. We look for him to get rocked again tonight and sense a road dog upset in this one! Bet the New York Mets on the money line in early evening action Friday
|
07-26-18 |
A's v. Rangers OVER 11 |
|
7-6 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 19 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER the Total - Oakland A's @ Texas Rangers, Thursday at 8:05 PM ET
This total opened up at a 11.5 in a number of shops but then quickly dropped to a solid 11 across the board. The key factors here are two starting pitchers likely to struggle and hot summer weather coupled with light winds allowing the ball to carry extremely well (as per usual) at Globe Life Park in Texas tonight. The first three games of this series have totaled 52 runs for an average of 17.3 runs scored per game so far in this 4-game set. This park plays out like a bandbox when the weather is like this and, in fact, both teams reached double digits in runs scored Tuesday before Wednesday's game (6-5 final) fell just short of going over the total. The A's Trevor Cahill has impressive overall numbers as a starter this season but he is winless in his 5 road starts this year and the A's are 4-0-1 to the over in those road games as he has compiled an ugly 5.92 ERA away from home. Texas veteran right-hander Bartolo Colon has slumped as the season has progressed. Colon is 0-3 in his last 3 starts and has given up 9 runs (8 earned) on 17 hits in just 10 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last two starts. The Texas bullpen is also struggling as the Rangers have allowed 9 runs or more in 4 of their last 6 games and they blew the save opportunity in last night's game. The A's have been one of the hottest lineups in baseball and have scored at least 5 runs in 10 of their last 15 games and, in fact, Oakland has scored at least 6 runs in 9 of those 10 strong games at the plate. Only 20 of the A's 55 road games this season have stayed under the total. The Rangers are 5-2 to the over their last 7 games. We look for these over trends to resume in a big way this evening after we fell just short with this play last night. Bet the OVER in Texas in evening action Thursday
|
07-25-18 |
A's v. Rangers OVER 11.5 |
Top |
6-5 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Oakland A's @ Texas Rangers, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET
This total opened up at a 12 in a lot of shops but then dropped to a solid 11.5 across the board this morning. The key elements here are two starting pitchers likely to struggle and hot summer weather coupled with light winds allowing the ball to carry extremely well (as per usual) at Globe Life Park in Texas tonight. The first two games of this series have totaled 18 and 23 runs, respectively, so don't let the big number scare you here. This park plays out like a bandbox when the weather is like this and, in fact, both teams reached double digits in runs scored last night! The A's Edwin Jackson has a low ERA on the season but he has pitched in limited action and has walked 7 and struck out just 4 in his last two road starts. The Rangers Martin Perez has had an awful season and has pitched particularly poor at home. The southpaw has a 10.05 ERA in his home starts and all 3 went over the total. The Texas bullpen is also struggling as the Rangers have now allowed 9 runs or more in 4 of their last 5 games. The A's have been one of the hottest lineups in baseball and have scored at least 5 runs in 9 of their last 14 games and Oakland scored at least 6 runs in 8 of those 9 strong games at the plate. Only 19 of the A's 54 road games this season have stayed under the total. The Rangers are 5-1 to the over their last 6 games. We look for these over trends to continue in a BIG way this evening! Bet the OVER in Texas in evening action Wednesday
|
07-25-18 |
Giants v. Mariners -130 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 58 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Seattle Mariners Money Line (-) vs San Francisco Giants, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET
The Giants hung on yesterday for the 1-run win but had previously lost 4 of their last 5 games. The Mariners, prior to the 1-run loss, had won 24 of their last 32 home games. Overall, there is a significant home/road dichotomy in this match-up as the Giants are 21-31 in road games this season while the Mariners are 33-19 in home games this year. Seattle is starting Mike Leake and he has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 11 starts. San Francisco is starting Derek Holland and the southpaw has struggled in 3 of his last 4 road starts. Other than the one strong start, Holland has allowed 9 earned runs on 20 hits in just 13 and 2 / 3 innings away from home. Long term the Giants are 24-47 as a road dog in a range of +125 to +175. The Mariners are 25-14 this season when off of a loss and also a fantastic 10-3 this season when they are a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175. Bet Seattle on the money line in late afternoon action Wednesday
|
07-24-18 |
Giants +1.5 v. Mariners |
|
4-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 41 m |
Show
|
NOTE: Pitching change for Mariners as they are now going with Roenis Elias. We are still sticking with this play as we like the 90% edge factor with the Giants Suarez and we like the fact that the Mariners Elias is making his first MLB start since 2016. He has not been a regular MLB starter since 2015. Elias enters this start having gone only 2-4 with a 4.94 ERA in his 7 games (6 starts) with Tacoma at the AAA level of the minors. ASA PLAY ON 9* San Francisco Giants Run Line (+1.5 runs) @ Seattle Mariners, Tuesday at 10:10 PM ET
Andrew Suarez gets the start for the Giants here and he allowed 4 earned runs despite allowing only 4 hits in his most recent start. The fact is that the San Francisco southpaw has certainly been on top of his game for many weeks now. In fact, that was the first time in his last 7 starts that he allowed more than 2 earned runs in an outing. Heading into that start Suarez had compiled a 2.00 ERA in his 6 priors starts. Also, that loss (by a 4-run margin) in his start broke a 9-game Suarez start streak in which the Giants either won the game or lost by just a single run. This is certainly a factor in why we like the run line so much in this match-up. It is a very fair price to lay (about -130) to have the Giants at +1.5 runs in this match-up and had you played San Francisco at +1.5 runs in each of the 9 starts Suarez made prior to the loss versus Oakland, you would have compiled a perfect 9-0 record! The Mariners will struggle to win this game let alone to get any type of margin. Suarez has given up only 51 hits in the 57 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last 10 starts. Seattle has a solid southpaw on the mound too but James Paxton is returning from the disabled list after having lower back issues. Since June 15th, Paxton has made 6 starts and certainly 2 of those were very impressive. However, in the other 4 outings the Mariners lefty compiled a 9.60 ERA. In his last 10 starts only one was an M's win by more than a single run. Remember only 1 of the last 10 Suarez starts has resulted in a Giants loss by more than a single run. That is why this is a double 90% edge factor favoring a strong play on the road dog. Bet San Francisco on the run line (+1.5 runs) in late night action Tuesday
|
07-23-18 |
Braves v. Marlins OVER 8 |
|
12-1 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER - Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins, Monday at 7:10 PM ET
The Marlins have gone over the total in 3 of their last 4 games and that has been thanks in part to Miami's offensive production as they've averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. The Marlins have averaged scoring 5 runs per game dating back to late June as they've shown a solid increase in offensive production the past 4 weeks. That certainly should continue against a struggling Sean Newcomb. The southpaw is 0-3 with a 9.74 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. Newcomb's most recent start did result in an under but, prior to this, the over was 8-2 in his last 10 starts! As for Marlins starter Jose Urena, he has a 5.31 ERA in his last 4 starts and he also has a 5.05 ERA in his 9 career starts versus the Braves. This includes going winless with a 5.29 ERA in his last 3 starts versus Atlanta. The right-hander enters this outing have been hit hard in his last two starts and compiling a 6.52 ERA in those two sub-par efforts. The over is 13-7 this season in Braves road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs and also 21-13 this season in their games against teams with a losing record. The Marlins have one of the worst bullpens in the majors and the Braves also rank in the bottom third of the majors based on bullpen ERA this season. Bet the OVER in Miami in early evening action Monday
|
07-22-18 |
Padres v. Phillies -1.5 |
|
0-5 |
Win
|
120 |
7 h 3 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs San Diego Padres, Sunday at 6:05 PM ET - Game TWO of double header
The Padres, entering Sunday's double-header, have lost 6 straight games. 26 of San Diego's last 30 losses have been defeats by at least a margin of 2 runs. The Phillies are a pricey favorite on the money line in Game 2 of the double-header Sunday but are available at plus money on the run line. We'll invest with Philadelphia and lay the -1.5 runs as the Phillies are not only the much better team in this match-up, they also have a huge pitching edge. Vincent Velasquez gets the call for the Phils here and he has given up 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. The Philadelphia right-hander has a 1.93 ERA in his last 3 starts. He rates a big edge over Luis Perdomo of the Padres. The San Diego right-hander is 1-4 this season with a 7.55 ERA and a 2.10 WHIP. The Padres have lost 6 of his 7 starts and all 6 defeats were by 2 or more runs. The Phillies have won 13 of their last 19 games and 6 of their last 8 wins have come by 2 or more runs. The average margin of victory in those 8 games was 4 runs! This looks like another blowout here as one of Velasquez all time best starts came in his lone start versus the Padres in his career. He pitched a complete game shutout and allowed only 3 hits while striking out 16. We expect another dominating performance here. Bet Philadelphia on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action (Game TWO of double header) Sunday
|
07-22-18 |
Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 8 |
|
2-7 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 37 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* UNDER - St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET
Both of yesterday's games in the double header snuck over the total to continue long "over" streaks for each of these clubs. However, the wind is blowing in quite strong this afternoon at Wrigley Field and this pitching match-up is also favorable for an under. That is why the odds makers opened up this total at a 7.5 and the fact it moved to an 8 quickly added additional value for the "under" in this match-up. The Cubs Jose Quintana has a 1.50 ERA so far this month and also has a 2.81 ERA in his 6 career starts versus the Cardinals. Only one of those starts versus St Louis resulted in an over. Look for that long-term "under" trend to continue here as the Cards start Miles Mikolas in this one. The right-hander held the Cubs scoreless over 7 innings in his early May start versus Chicago. He has a 2.79 ERA in his 19 starts this season and continues to be a huge story with his unexpected success with St Louis after spending the past 3 years pitching in Japan. This will be the Cardinals 17th Sunday game this season and the Cubs 16th Sunday game on the year. Each club has had only 6 Sunday games go over the total this season. The low-scoring trend on Sundays continues here on a pitcher-friendly afternoon at Wrigley Field. Bet the UNDER in the Chicago Cubs game in early afternoon action Sunday
|
07-21-18 |
Dodgers -1.5 v. Brewers |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Milwaukee Brewers, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET
Massive pitching edge for the Dodgers here and this one is destined to turn into a road rout. Clayton Kershaw gets the call for the Dodgers and he truly had just one "mistake pitch" in his most recent start and that resulted in a 3-run homer. However, the Dodgers still hung on for the 5-3 win in that game and, overall, it was another quality start for Kershaw. The left-hander has a 2.63 ERA in his last 7 starts. LA is 4-1 in his last 5 starts and all 5 of those games were decided by 2 or more runs. Instead of laying a sizable price here on the money line, we're grabbing the run line and laying the 1.5 runs with some shops having this available at no juice as of early game-day morning. The Brewers have struggled against Kershaw in recent seasons as he has a 2.70 ERA in his last 3 starts versus Milwaukee while registering 33 strikeouts in 23 and 1 / 3 innings! The Brewers will have Chase Anderson on the mound for this one. Although the right-hander has a low ERA in recent starts, he has been fortunate as he has allowed 14 hits (including 2 homers) in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts. On the season Anderson has a 4.83 ERA in starts at Miller Park. Also, the Dodgers have hit him very hard in recent meetings. Anderson has given up 15 runs (14 earned) in the 11 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus Los Angeles. His WHIP in those starts is 2.38 and when a pitcher is giving up nearly 2.5 baserunners per inning it does not take long to get into big trouble! LA has won 11 of their last 15 games and 40 of the Dodgers 54 wins this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Brewers, on the other hand, have lost 7 straight games! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Saturday.
|
07-20-18 |
Marlins +155 v. Rays |
|
6-5 |
Win
|
155 |
8 h 40 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Miami Marlins Money Line (+) @ Tampa Bay Rays, Friday at 7:10 PM ET
The Marlins wrapped up the first half of the season with wins in 5 of their last 7 games while the Rays lost 3 of 4 at Minnesota. Even though the Rays are back home for this match-up and have a good pitcher on the mound, the Marlins also have a solid pitcher on the mound and they are a huge dog in this game. With that said, we like the value being offered here with Miami. The Marlins have actually won 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. The Rays have lost 10 of their 15 inter-league games this season. Also, TB has lost 29 of 47 this season when off of a loss. In other words, they are not known for bouncing back. Tampa Bay also has an awful record in the role of mid-priced home favorite. Since the start of the 2016 season, the Rays have lost 38 of 67 games (-24.6 net units) when they are favored at home in a range of -125 to -175. Tampa Bay is 0-2 in Nathan Eovaldi's starts versus the Marlins and he has an ugly 13.49 ERA in those two outings. Also, in his final start before the All Star break, Eovaldi gave up 8 earned runs in less than 3 innings against the Twins. All factors considered, this line is truly "out of range" from where it should be and Miami has already taken 2 of 3 from the Rays this season plus the Marlins have won 3 of the last 4 meetings at Tampa Bay! We sense a road dog upset in this one! Bet the Miami Marlins on the money line in early evening action Friday
|
07-15-18 |
Angels v. Dodgers -1.5 |
Top |
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Los Angeles Angels, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET
Massive pitching edge for the Dodgers here and this one is destined to turn into a home blowout. Clayton Kershaw gets the call for the Dodgers and he has a 1.44 ERA in his 4 day game starts this season and the southpaw went 12-3 with a 1.95 ERA in his day game starts the past 3 seasons combined! Not only does he love pitching in afternoon action, Kershaw has thrived at home as he went 28-6 with a 1.81 ERA in starts at Dodger Stadium the past 3 seasons and he has a strong 2.85 ERA in limited action at home this season. The Angels have struggled against him in recent seasons and have not seen him yet this season which is a big edge for the Dodgers here considering their lineup just faced the Angels Deck McGuire in his most recent start on the 7th of this month. Note that Kershaw has a 0.82 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Angels. As for McGuire, though he had a successful 3-inning stint versus the Dodgers a week ago, he is likely to struggle against them here as they get a quick 2nd look at him plus now McGuire is away from home. McGuire has pitched in 6 road games in his career (3 of those were starts) and he has a 6.64 ERA away from home in his career! Opponents are hitting .302 against him in road games this season. The Angels got the win over the Dodgers yesterday but had previously lost 14 of their last 18 road games! Also, the Angels are just 9-17 this season against left-handed starters and also are only 14-25 this season in games against teams with a winning record. The Dodgers are 10-5 this season in Sunday games and were 19-9 their last 28 home games prior to getting upset yesterday. Thanks to a huge pitching edge with Kershaw over McGuire, the Dodgers bounce right back in a big way today on Sunday! 38 of the Dodgers 52 wins this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. 37 of the Angels 47 losses this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line (-1.5 runs) in late afternoon action Sunday.
|
07-14-18 |
Rangers v. Orioles OVER 10 |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 6 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER the Total - Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET
The teams combined for 3 double plays in last night's game and only hit 3 of 15 (.200) with runners in scoring position. That was the difference in the game as it fell just short of going over the total. Tonight's game is likely to make up for that in a big way as two struggling pitchers are matched up. The Rangers Martin Perez has a 9.67 ERA in his 5 starts this season and is returning from injury. There have been ZERO unders in the 5 starts Perez has made this season. He'll be opposed by the Orioles Yefrey Ramirez Saturday. The rookie right-hander has a 7.04 ERA in his two home starts and it easily could have been even worse as he has been allowing an average of 2 baserunners per inning in his outings at Camden Yards this season. In road games with a total set at 10 or 10.5 runs, the Rangers are 13-7 to the over since April of 2016. The Orioles have allowed 5 runs or more in 9 of their last 10 games! Texas has allowed 4 runs or more in 9 of their last 11 games. With this total having moved down from an opener of 10.5 to a 10 we especially like the additional value as these two teams continue to give up big runs. Bet the OVER in Baltimore in early evening action Saturday.
|
07-14-18 |
Phillies v. Marlins +152 |
|
0-2 |
Win
|
152 |
7 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Miami Marlins Money Line (+) vs Philadelphia Phillies, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET
Make no mistake about it, the Phillies Aaron Nola is a fantastic pitcher. However, Philadelphia is only 5-5 in his road starts this season. Also, the Phillies tend to not give him a lot of run support. In his most recent start (a 3-1 win) the only Philadelphia runs were scored on Nola's bases-clearing double! Also, as strong as Nola has been, his last 3 starts all came against teams that were slumping at the plate. Now he faces a Marlins team that, prior to yesterday's poor effort at the plate, had scored an average of 6 runs per game in their 7 prior games. Miami starter Trevor Richards has a 3.27 ERA in his last 4 home starts and we sense a home dog upset in this one! Bet the Miami Marlins on the money line in late afternoon action Saturday
|
07-13-18 |
Brewers v. Pirates OVER 8 |
|
3-7 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 15 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER the Total - Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Friday at 7:05 PM ET
The opening number on this one was an 8.5 and it quickly dropped to an 8 which has opened up some extra line value here. Last night's game went over the total and the Brewers are now 9-4 to the over in their last 13 games. Milwaukee starter Junior Guerra has been great in recent home starts but he has a 5.25 ERA in road starts since early June. Another big key here is that the Pirates lineup is very familiar with Guerra and he has a 5.94 ERA in his last 3 starts versus Pittsburgh and has allowed a pair of homers in each of his last two starts versus the Bucs. Pittsburgh starter Nick Kingham is off of a strong start versus the Phillies but he entered that outing with a 5.74 ERA in his 6 prior starts. Also, the Brewers did face him in May and they got to him for 4 earned runs in 5 and 1 / 3 innings and they did pound two homers off of him. This looks like an ideal spot for both starting pitchers to struggle and yet the game is not priced that way so this offers solid value. The over is 17-10 this season in Pirates homes where the total is set at an 8 or 8.5 runs. We fully expect another one here! Bet the OVER in Pittsburgh in early evening action Friday.
|
07-12-18 |
Blue Jays v. Red Sox -1.5 |
|
4-6 |
Win
|
115 |
7 h 6 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Boston Red Sox Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Toronto Blue Jays, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET
Though both of these starters have stumbled recently, there is reason to believe that J.A. Happ's struggles continue while David Price gets back on track. For starters, Price's struggles have been on the road in his last two outings. In terms of his home starts, the Boston left-hander has made 4 starts at Fenway Park in the months of May and June and he held the opposition to 2 earned runs or less in every single start. Also, he has dominated the Blue Jays throughout his career. Price has gone 19-3 with a 2.46 ERA in his career outings versus Toronto! As for the Jays Happ, the trade deadline has been approaching and with rumors flying about the southpaw it seems to have impacted him greatly. In his last two starts the Toronto left-hander has been rocked for 13 earned runs in 8 and 1 / 3 innings! Also, he is facing a Red Sox team that has won 9 straight games and averaged scoring 8 runs per game in their last 8 wins! Those 8 wins have all come by a margin of 2 runs or more and that is why we're comfortable with the run line (-1.5 runs) on Boston in this one. Toronto has lost 6 of its last 9 games and they've been held to a scoring average of just 2.8 runs per game in those 6 losses. 16 of the Blue Jays last 21 losses have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Jays are a horrible 11-21 versus left-handed starters this season. The Red Sox are 29-12 in divisional games this season and they stay red hot here. Bet Boston on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Thursday.
|
07-11-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 |
Top |
2-19 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET
This total opened up at a 12 but then dropped to a solid 11.5 across the board this morning. The key elements here are two starting pitchers likely to struggle and a wind shift that is taking place at Coors Field tonight very soon after first pitch in this game! The wind is likely to be out of the east at first pitch but is shifting from east to southeast very quickly and this means it will be blowing out at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Rockies right-hander German Marquez is off of back to back solid starts but those were on the road. Pitching at home has been a nightmare for him this season as Marquez is 2-5 with a 7.93 ERA and he allows an average of 2 baserunners per inning when on his home mound. It is no wonder that he is in trouble early and often there. Now he faces a Diamondbacks team that has hammered for 21 hits in 12 and 2 / 3 innings over his last three starts versus Arizona. Included in those hits were 3 homers when he hosted the Dbacks just last month! More of the same expected here and the Rockies will also be crushing the ball tonight. Colorado will take advantage of Shelby Miller whom just hasn't been the same in his attempt to return from Tommy John surgery. The right-hander has gone 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in his 3 starts since his return. Also, his history versus the Rockies is not a good sign for him in terms of what to expect tonight. The right-hander is 2-4 with a 6.30 ERA versus Colorado. Most recently he has allowed 13 earned runs on 20 hits in just 11 innings spanning his last two starts versus the Rockies. This match-up truly has "slug-fest" written all "over" it and the over is 18-7 in Diamondbacks road games this season where Arizona's money line ranges from -125 to +125. We look for the over to improve to 10-4 in Arizona's Wednesday games this season. Bet the OVER in Colorado in evening action Wednesday.
|
07-11-18 |
Yankees -146 v. Orioles |
|
9-0 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 42 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* New York Yankees Money Line (-) @ Baltimore Orioles, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
Starting pitchers get so much attention from the betting markets that sometimes it actually helps keep lines in a different range from where they should be! That is the case here as we're getting a great line on the much better team and the team coming off of a loss and it is all because of the pitching match-up. Certainly the Yankees Sonny Gray's recent numbers do not impress but he actually had been pitching quite well on the road prior to his most recent start at Toronto. In his 6 prior outings away from home, Gray had compiled a 2.27 ERA. This included a very strong start at Baltimore. He was priced in the -175 range for that start and now he is in the -145 range in this outing. The Orioles are a bad team that rarely wins consecutive games. Baltimore is also only 15-46 this season in games against right-handed starters! The Yankees, of course, are the much better team and rarely lose consecutive games to a bad team like the O's. They are facing Dylan Bundy here but the Orioles right-hander has a 7.20 ERA in his last two starts versus the Bronx Bombers and he allowed a total of 4 homers in those outings! He also enters this start with a 6.32 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. The Yankees are 26-12 this season in games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs and also have gone 20-9 this season when off of loss. They will prove to be well worth the moderate price here as the road favorite in this one. Bet the New York Yankees on the money line in early evening action Wednesday
|
07-10-18 |
Blue Jays v. Braves OVER 9 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-107 |
23 h 45 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 7:35 PM ET
Both the Blue Jays and Braves were off yesterday. Toronto enters this series having lost 7 of their last 11 games. A big reason for the recent losing has been struggling pitching. Prior to Sunday's rare pitchers' duel involving the Jays, Toronto had allowed 6 or more runs in 6 of their 10 prior games. Now they send a struggling Marcus Stroman to the mound Tuesday so another big night for the opposition is likely. Stroman got rocked by the Mets in his most recent start and he now has a 6.67 ERA in his 10 starts this season. As for Atlanta, they counter with Julio Teheran. Speaking of struggles he is likely to wish he was facing anybody but Toronto. Teheran has a 10.00 ERA in the 4 starts he has made against the Blue Jays in his career. The Braves right-hander has allowed 8 homers in his last 3 starts versus the Jays! That's 8 round-trippers in less than 14 innings of work. Also, he enters this start having had some struggles recently. Teheran allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start. That one was on the road. How about his most recent home start? He allowed 7 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work in his most recent start in Atlanta. Teheran will be facing a Toronto team that is 9-3 to the over in inter-league games this season and also 9-4 to the over in road games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs this season. Atlanta is 8-5 to the over in inter-league games this season and 19-12 to the over in games against teams with a losing record this year. The Braves are also 23-13 to the over when off of a game where they allowed double digits in runs! They've now allowed an average of 6.2 runs per game their last 6 games. We expect more of the same in a back and forth slug-fest in this one tonight. Bet the OVER in Atlanta in early evening action Tuesday.
|
07-09-18 |
A's v. Astros OVER 8 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-103 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER the Total - Oakland A's @ Houston Astros, Monday at 8:10 PM ET
Astros Gerrit Cole has great numbers on the season but he has allowed 4 earned runs in 3 starts out of his last 5. Houston is 6-3 to the over in his last 9 starts. A's Frankie Montas has been hit very hard in each of his last 3 starts versus an AL foe. He had one good recent start but it was versus an NL foe and a light-hitting one at that as it was the Padres. As for his last 3 starts versus American League teams, Montas has allowed 16 runs (14 earned) on 25 hits in 14 innings of work for a 9.00 ERA. The over is a perfect 6-0 his last 6 starts. As for Cole, the over is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts. So we've got combined angles of 11-0, 100% perfect working in our favor with this one! The A's have won 16 of their last 20 games thanks in large part to consistent production from their lineup. The Astros have won 6 straight home games and have averaged scoring 7 runs per game in those victories. Bet the OVER in Houston in evening action Monday.
|
07-09-18 |
Reds v. Indians OVER 9.5 |
|
7-5 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 52 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER the Total - Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Indians, Monday at 7:10 PM ET
The over is 22-10-2 in the Reds last 34 games. When it was brutally cold in Cleveland very early this season the Indians started the season with an O/U of 0-6 in their home games. Since then, at Progressive Field, the Indians are an incredible 27-8-2 their last 35 games at home! The over is 5-1-1 in Mike Clevinger's last 6 home starts. As for the Reds, they are 4-0 to the over in Anthony DeSclafani's last 4 starts. He has a 6.94 ERA in his last two starts and he has allowed 6 homers in his last 3 starts overall. Clevinger's ERA has been respectable of late but he has allowed 14 hits in his last 11 innings and Cincinnati's lineup, surprisingly, has been one of the hosted in baseball over the past 6 weeks! This total has flirted with 10 today but seems to have settled in at a 9.5 and the over is 7-1-1 this season in Indians home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 7-2-1 in Reds Monday games this season and they begin another week with another over here! Bet the OVER in Cleveland in early evening action Monday.
|
07-08-18 |
Cardinals v. Giants -122 |
|
8-13 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 19 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* San Francisco Giants Money Line (-) vs St Louis Cardinals, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
The Giants have won each of Madison Bumgarner's last two home starts and he has not allowed a single run in either start. In fact, Bumgarner allowed a total of just 5 hits in the 15 innings spanning his last two home starts. In his last 3 starts overall, the San Francisco left-hander has a 0.86 ERA. He'll be opposed by the Cardinals Jack Flaherty. The St Louis right-hander has a 7.20 ERA in his last two starts as some of the early season "magic" he had is starting to wear off as hitters are seeing more of him. The Giants have an added edge here as they did see the young right-hander late last season and they got to him for 5 earned runs in 4 innings of work. Flaherty allowed a homer in that start and he also enters this outing having allowed 4 homers in his last 3 starts overall. Even with yesterday's loss, the Giants are a solid 27-16 at home this season and we have great line value here with the low price on Bumgarner at home and holding a key pitching edge over Flaherty. SF is down 2-1 in this 4-game series and that is certainly noteworthy as San Francisco is going for the split here. The Giants have won or at least split all but one series this entire season. The only series they lost at home was way back in mid-April. Look for them to rise up and earn the split here behind a great start from Bumgarner. Bet San Francisco on the money line in late afternoon action Sunday
|
07-08-18 |
Red Sox v. Royals OVER 9 |
Top |
7-4 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 11 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals, Sunday at 2:15 PM ET
The Red Sox have already scored 25 runs in the first two games of this series. Overall they've scored 10 runs or more in 4 of their last 7 games. The over is 5-2 in Boston's last 7 games and now they get to take on a rookie right-hander, Heath Fillmyer, making his first ever MLB start. The 24-year old has good numbers so far with the Royals but he has made just 3 relief appearances out of the bullpen. There is a big difference between coming out of the bullpen and making your first ever MLB start against one of the best lineups in baseball. The Red Sox sticks are red hot right now and note that Fillmyer's AAA stats this season are not impressive at all. In the minors this season Fillmyer made 13 starts and compiled a 5.75 ERA as opponents hit .303 against him! This is a tough assigment for the rookie and, after a likely early Fillmyer exit in this one, the American League's worst bullpen (5.28 ERA) will get called upon to get hammered. Just as they have been crushed in each of the first two games, the Kansas City bullpen gives it up again Sunday afternoon. While Boston's lineup should definitely stay red hot here, look for the Royals lineup to join the party too! KC's hitters will be taking on Rick Porcello. Though the veteran right-hander has solid numbers this season, he has allowed a pair of homers in each of his last two starts. Also, in Porcello's last 3 starts versus the Royals (including 2 here at Kauffman Stadium), he has compiled a 7.41 ERA and allowed 5 homers in 17 innings. He particularly struggled at Kansas City with 10 earned runs allowed in 10 innings! The over is 4-1 in Kansas City's last 5 games. Also, the Royals are a long-term 56-33 to the over (including 8-1 in recent seasons) when they are a home dog of +175 or more. Bet the OVER in Kansas City in early afternoon action Sunday.
|
07-07-18 |
Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 8 |
|
5-20 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 14 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER the Total - San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks, Saturday at 10:10 PM ET
The Padres Tyson Ross had trouble with his slider in his most recent start and early indications are that something is indeed "wrong" with Ross right now but yet he is going to "give it a go" here. That said, note that he allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings in that outing and gave up 3 homers plus walked 3 while not registering a single strikeout! Ross also gave up 2 homers in 6 innings in his most recent road start. The Diamondbacks are starting Robbie Ray here and the southpaw gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start and that was at home. Facing the Padres is unlikely to help him. Ray allowed 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings in his most recent start versus San Diego and he gave up 3 homers in that outing. Yesterday's game stayed under the total but Arizona had been 4-1 to the over entering that game. This is San Diego's 15th Saturday game so far this season and so far they've had only 5 unders on a Saturday year to date. Look for another Saturday slug-fest here! Bet the OVER in Arizona in late night action Saturday.
|
07-07-18 |
Dodgers v. Angels OVER 10 |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 8 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER the Total - Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET
This total has risen up to a 10 but the move is absolutely justified. The Angels are starting Deck McGuire and he is likely to live up to his namesake and get "deck"ed in this one! The inexperienced right-hander has given up 7 homers in less than 17 innings of work spanning his 7 games (1 start) this season. McGuire got rocked in his only start this season and that was at Baltimore Sunday. Of course the Orioles don't have near the lineup that the Dodgers have and this one is likely to get ugly very fast as a result. As for Dodgers starter Ross Stripling, the right-hander has good numbers on the season but he has been getting hit very hard of late. Stripling has allowed 24 hits in the 17 innings spanning his last 3 starts and he allowed a home run in each of those starts. In his only career start in Anaheim, Stripling allowed 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work! Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the Dodgers entered that contest having gone 9-3 to the over in their dozen prior games. With both of these pitchers likely to get shelled, the big hitting resumes Saturday and this one flies over the total. The over is 23-14 in Dodgers games versus teams with a winning record this season and the over is also 37-19 this season in Dodgers games versus a right-handed starter. We expect more of the same in this one which starts at 4:15 PM local time. The ball does carry better in day games here! Bet the OVER in Los Angeles in early evening action Saturday.
|
07-06-18 |
A's v. Indians OVER 8.5 |
|
4-10 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER the Total - Oakland A's @ Cleveland Indians, Friday at 7:10 PM ET
The wind is going to be blowing in tonight in Cleveland. While it is always important to factor weather into the equation when handicapping games it can sometimes actually lead to value going the other way! That is precisely the case here as this total opened up at a 9.5 and has since dropped all the way down to an 8.5 in most shops. The key to the value with the over here is that neither one of these hurlers is likely to be in top form. Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco hasn't started in the past 3 weeks as he got hurt by a line drive come-backer in that start back on June 16th. It is highly unlikely that he is going to come back and immediately just start mowing hitters down. This is particularly true when you consider he allowed 5 earned runs in 6 and 1 / 3 innings the last time he faced the A's. Oakland comes into this series red hot as they have won 14 of their last 17 games and they've averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this strong 3-week stretch. The A's are starting Paul Blackburn here and he has a 6.47 ERA in his 5 starts this season. He had a solid start in his most recent outing which was versus the Indians. However, now they get a quick second look at him and this time it is in Cleveland! The over is 26-13 in Indians home games this season and, keep in mind, this was after a slow start at home earlier this season when it was so brutally cold there. As the weather has warmed so too have the bats and another Indians over at home is likely! In home games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 this season Cleveland is a perfect 7-0 to the over. With this total now having dropped to an 8.5 there is even more value in this spot! We'll take it! Bet the OVER in Cleveland in early evening action Friday.
|
07-06-18 |
Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 |
|
2-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 45 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER the Total - New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays, Friday at 7:05 PM ET
The Yankees have lost 3 of Sonny Gray's last 4 starts as he has struggled and posted a 7.58 ERA during this rough stretch. Gray has been "up and down" versus the Blue Jays this season and, given his current downward trend, this is likely to be one of those "down games" Friday at Toronto. The Jays are 24-16-3 to the over this season in games against teams with a winning record. The Blue Jays will take advantage of getting their 4th look at Gray already this season! As for Toronto starter Sam Gaviglio, he had a great start versus the Yankees exactly a month ago. However, since then he has compiled a 6.16 ERA. You can bet (literally) that the Yankees are going to hit him much better in the rematch and, prior to Gaviglio's most recent start staying under the total, his first 7 starts this season saw only 1 remain under the total! That was the one against New York. This one will be a slugfest that makes up for that as the Bronx Bombers have averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their last 4 games. Bet the OVER in Toronto in early evening action Friday.
|
07-05-18 |
Braves +100 v. Brewers |
Top |
2-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 2 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Atlanta Braves Money Line (-) @ Milwaukee Brewers, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET
The Braves have lost back to back road games but they were in the Bronx facing the Yankees. Prior to these back to back losses Atlanta was on a fantastic 22-11 (67%) run their last 33 road games. It is no "accident" that they're leading the National League East division. They hold a big edge in this match-up with Milwaukee because Braves southpaw Max Fried is likely to handcuff the Brewers. Milwaukee is hitting a paltry .222 versus left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them 29th out of 30 in the majors! Fried enters this start having allowed just 1 earned run on 8 hits while striking out 17 in his two starts spanning 11 and 2 / 3 innings this season. The Brewers are a fantastic 43-26 against right-handed starters this season BUT they have a losing record versus southpaws. The fact that Milwaukee hasn't faced many left-handed starters recently also will be a detriment to the lineup here as they'll be trying to get locked in on a lefty that has been piling up strikeouts. As for the Brewers starting pitcher tonight it will be Jhoulys Chacin getting the call. Milwaukee has lost each of his last 3 starts overall. Chacin has given up 5 earned runs or more in 2 of his last 3 starts at Miller Park. Overall at home in his last 3 starts the right-hander has compiled an ugly 7.02 ERA. He is facing a Braves team that is the #1 hitting team on the road in the National League. Atlanta's .266 batting average and .452 slugging percentage ranks them at the very TOP in both categories! While the Brewers are not familiar with Fried, the Braves faced Chacin last season in two starts. Although the 4.50 ERA is not particularly poor it is certainly not great and Chacin's 1.67 WHIP in those two outings is particularly concerning. The way the Braves have been hitting on the road this season (much better than last year when he faced them) this is a tough match-up for Chacin. Atlanta is 24-11 this season when off of a loss and Atlanta is also a perfect 7-0 this season in Thursday games. Bet Atlanta on the money line for a TOP PLAY in evening action Thursday.
|
07-04-18 |
Giants v. Rockies OVER 10.5 |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 8 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER the Total - San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET
The very first numbers that came out on this match-up had set the total at a 12 yesterday afternoon. By this morning the line has plummeted right past 11.5 and 11 all the way down to a 10.5 in most books. This is offering fantastic line value at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Yes the Giants have been held to a total of just 3 runs so far in this series. However, San Francisco entered this series having won 10 of their last 12 games and averaging 6.5 runs in their 4 games prior to this series. Also, the Giants had averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their previous 8 games versus the Rockies before stumbling to start this series. They'll bounce back here against Tyler Anderson. The Colorado left-hander has allowed 12 earned runs in the 16 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 home starts. Also, Anderson has an 8.68 ERA in his last 2 starts versus the Giants. San Francisco will have Andrew Suarez on the mound. The Giants left-hander has a 5.35 ERA in his 7 road starts this season and has been roughed up as opponents have hit .324 against him in his starts away from home this year! The over is 10-3 in San Francisco's Wednesday games this season. Bet the OVER in Colorado in evening action Wednesday.
|
07-04-18 |
Astros -1.5 v. Rangers |
|
5-4 |
Loss |
-108 |
8 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Houston Astros Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Texas Rangers, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
Gerrit Cole gets the start for the Astros. He is having a huge resurgence this season with Houston and the Astros have gone 14-3 in his starts this season including 3-0 when Cole has started versus the Rangers. The right-hander has completely handcuffed Texas as he has struck out 33 while allowing just 8 hits in 20 innings of work! That makes this game likely to end up as a complete mismatch as the Rangers counter with Mike Minor. The southpaw has pitched well in his last few starts but those weren't against Houston and, the fact is, the Astros have had his number this season. Minor has a 5.74 ERA in his 3 starts against Houston this year. Only 4 of the Rangers last 18 games have been one-run games so there is good support for value with the run line in this one. The game is likely to be decided by 2 or more runs and certainly, the way Cole has pitched against Texas, it should be the Astros coming out on top. 39 of Houston's last 46 wins have come by 2 runs or more so you can see why we're expecting a road rout in this one. Bet Houston on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Wednesday.
|
07-03-18 |
Orioles v. Phillies -160 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 31 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Baltimore Orioles, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET
The Orioles have the worst record in baseball but are off of a rare win Sunday. Both Baltimore and Philadelphia were off yesterday and that sets this up as a double perfect situation in favor of the Phillies. Not only the Orioles 0-9 this season when playing after a day off, Philadelphia is 5-0 in Zach Eflin's last 5 starts. The right-hander went 5-0 for the Phillies in June while compiling a stellar 1.76 ERA. In addition to the double perfect spot here, Baltimore is 1-10 in Tuesday games and 10-35 in games against teams with a winning record this season. Philadelphia is 13-7 in their last 20 games and also, on the season, the Phillies have gone 10-4 when they are a home favorite in a money line range of -125 to -175. While Eflin is in superb current form, Baltimore's Alex Cobb has given up 5 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts. The Orioles are 3-11 in Cobb's starts this season and a home blowout is likely here in this one. Bet Philadelphia on the money line in evening action Tuesday
|
07-03-18 |
Astros v. Rangers OVER 10.5 |
|
5-3 |
Loss |
-105 |
25 h 28 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER the Total - Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET
The Astros are coming off of a rough series at Tampa Bay where they did not score well at all. However, they now return to Texas to take on the rival Rangers and this rivalry has a strong tendency of bringing out the best in Houston's bats. The Astros have won 7 of 8 meetings at Globe Life Park in Arlington this season and, overall, have defeated the Rangers in each of their last 6 meetings whether in Houston or Arlington. In those 6 games the Astros averaged scoring 6 runs per game and they should enjoy continued success versus Texas as they take on Austin Bibens-Dirkx. Though he had success in his last two starts, Bibens-Dirkx faced the light-hitting Padres and Royals. In his first two starts this season he was rocked for 8 earned runs in 11 innings and now he faces the defending champs whom do like to hit here! The issue for the Astros will be that their own starter, Dallas Keuchel, is also likely to get hit hard. The Houston southpaw gave up 6 earned runs in 5 and 1 / 3 innings against the Blue Jays in his most recent start. The big concern for him Tuesday is that he has given up 9 runs (8 earned) on 20 hits in 10 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his two starts at Arlington this season and this is truly nothing new. The past 3 seasons combined he was much better overall at home in comparison with on the road. Also, in his 7 starts in Arlington over the past 3 seasons, the Rangers hit .305 against him! The Texas bats have been hot as they enter this series as they have produced 5 or more runs in 7 of their last 9 games. In that 9-game stretch only 3 unders have resulted. The Rangers over is 6-3 when playing after a day off, 15-9 versus lefties, and 12-5 in home games with a total set at 10 or 10.5 runs! Bet the OVER in Texas in evening action Tuesday
|
07-02-18 |
Twins v. Brewers OVER 8 |
|
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 53 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER the Total - Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers, Monday at 8:10 PM ET
The Twins were able to get their sticks going in the weekend series with the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Minnesota averaged 8 runs on 12 hits per game in the 3-game set and, as a result, the Twins lineup will have plenty of confidence at the plate in Monday's series opener at Milwaukee. The over is now 10-4-1 this season in Minnesota's inter-league games. Also, as a road dog in a range of +125 to +175, Minny is 9-3-1 to the over this season. Additionally, when off of a game where they allowed double digits in runs, the Twins are 5-2 to the over this season. The Brewers enter this series having gone 4-0-1 to the over in their last 5 games. Also, Milwaukee's Monday games are 7-2 to the over on the season. The Brewers got to the Twins Kyle Gibson for 5 earned runs in 5 and 1 / 3 innings when they faced him earlier this season. Additionally, Gibson enters this start off of an outing where he was hit hard by the White Sox as they got to him for 5 earned runs on 11 hits. Milwaukee starts left-hander Brent Suter. He allowed 4 earned runs versus a weak-hitting Kansas City team in his most recent start and that was also at home. On the season now Suter has an unimpressive 4.73 ERA in his 8 starts at Miller Park. The over is 7-1 in Suter's 8 home starts this season. Also, Milwaukee has gone 7-1 to the over in the southpaw's last 8 starts overall. With this total being set at an 8.5 but then moving down to an 8, we're happy to grab the extra value here. Bet the OVER in Milwaukee in evening action Monday
|
07-01-18 |
Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 8 |
|
9-6 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 46 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER the Total - San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET
Both these teams have trended under recently and that has helped drive a line move this morning as this total has dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 in most shops. The key variable here is this pitching match-up. These hurlers have faced off twice already this season. Both were successful in the first outing and then both struggled in the next outing. The more times a lineup faces a pitcher (especially in a rather short period of time) the more successful the hitters tend to be. That should prove to be the case here as this is the 3rd meeting in a span of 3 months. These hitters will be locked in on the offerings of Derek Holland and Zack Godley Sunday afternoon. The Giants Holland lasted only 4 innings in the most recent meeting while the Diamondbacks Godley was knocked out before completing 4 innings as he allowed 7 earned runs. Godley enters this start with Arizona having won each of his last 4 starts. However, he has had some command issues in his last 3 starts (too many walks) and also he faced a trio of teams struggling at the plate. The Giants have averaged 6 runs and 10 hits per game their last 3 games and should enjoy success here. As for Arizona, even with struggling so far in this series, they wrapped up June with a .437 slugging percentage which ranked them 8th out of 30 in the month of June. They'll bounce back against a pitcher, Holland, whom they've become very familiar with this season. Only 4 of Godley's last 14 starts have resulted in an under. Look for the high-scoring trend in his starts to continue! Bet the OVER in Arizona in late afternoon action Sunday.
|
07-01-18 |
Twins v. Cubs OVER 11.5 |
|
10-11 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 12 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER the Total - Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET
Another hot afternoon in Chicago with the wind blowing out. That is the same weather pattern we have seen in the first two games of this series and the result was an average of 19.5 runs scored per game. Simply can't ignore how impacting the weather can be at Wrigley Field when the weather is hot and the wind is blowing out. As a result, we look for another slug-fest here. The Cubs have scored an average of 9.8 runs per game their last 5 games. All 5 games went over and the over is now 8-1 in Chicago's last 9 games. Even the Twins have gotten their sticks going in this series and we expect more of the same Sunday afternoon. The over is now 9-4-1 this season in Minnesota's inter-league games. Also, as a road dog in a range of +125 to +175, Minny is 8-3-1 to the over this season! The over is 6-3 in Cubs inter-league games this season. While the posted total may seem "too big" here, note that the Cubs have had 4 home games the past 2 and 1 / 2 seasons that have had a posted total of 11 or 11.5 runs. ZERO of the four games resulted in an under. Jon Lester gets the start for the Cubs and his strikeout numbers (just 8 last 3 starts) have fallen off dramatically in recent outings. The Twins start Lance Lynn and the over is 7-1 in his 8 road starts this season as Lynn has compiled a 6.64 ERA away from home. Bet the OVER in the Chicago Cubs game in early afternoon action Sunday
|
06-30-18 |
Tigers v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
15 h 34 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 1:05 PM ET
Yesterday's game was a low-scoring battle as the Blue Jays held on for the 3-2 win. After that pitchers duel many will be looking for a similar result Saturday but the key to the outcome in this one is a pitching match-up that is conducive to big runs! Toronto is 5-1-1 to the over in Sam Gaviglio's 7 starts this season. The Jays right-hander has a 7.50 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in his last 3 starts and has averaged only 4 innings per start in these outings. The Tigers counter with a struggling hurler of their own in this one. Matt Boyd gets the call for Detroit here. The southpaw has been roughed up to the tune of 11 earned runs on 14 hits and 5 walks in a total of just 7 innings spanning his last two starts. Boyd also will feel the pressure of going against his former team. He did face the Blue Jays earlier this season and allowed 4 earned runs in 7 innings but that start was at Comerica Park. When he has actually pitched in Toronto, check out these numbers in his career starts at the Rogers Centre. As a member of the Jays in 2015 he went 0-2 with a 14.85 ERA in his two starts there. Since leaving Toronto and going to Detroit, as a member of the Tigers Boyd has allowed 6 earned runs in 11 innings at Rogers Centre. He has walked 8 in those 11 innings and, just as when he was also a member of the Blue Jays, he just does not appear comfortable on the mound in Toronto. You can see why we are predicting both starters to struggle badly here! Also supporting this play: the Jays are 20-11 to the over in day games this season. Also, as home favorite in a range of -125 to -175 this season, the Blue Jays are 5-2 to the over. Bet the OVER in Toronto in early afternoon action Saturday.
|
06-29-18 |
White Sox v. Rangers OVER 10.5 |
|
3-11 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER the Total - Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers, Friday at 8:10 PM ET
The Rangers send Yovani Gallardo to the mound. The veteran right-hander, from 2016 through this season, has gone 12-18 with a 5.89 ERA. It is easy to see that Gallardo's better days are in the rear-view mirror; namely 2015 and before! As for the White Sox starter tonight it will be Dylan Covey. Command of pitches has been an issue for Covey in his last two starts as he has walked 9 in 9 innings and that has helped lead the way to an 8.00 ERA in his last two starts. His BB/K ratio is 3.00 these last two starts as he has had 3 times as many walks as strikeouts. That is bad news when going on the road and pitching in a hitter-friendly park in Arlington. Also, prior to his last two starts Covey was finding the plate but the result was that he allowed 10 hits in 7 innings. In other words, whether it is walks or hits or both, the White Sox right-hander is finding ways to get roughed up of late. The Rangers are suddenly heating up too as they've won 9 of their last 11 games and Texas has averaged scoring 5.6 runs per game during this hot stretch. The White Sox struggled in yesterday's loss to the Twins but previously had won 4 of their last 5 games and averaged scoring 7.2 runs per game during this hot streak. In other words, plenty of confidence at the plate for both teams here PLUS a pair of starting pitchers on the mound whom are likely to struggle. Bet the OVER in Texas in evening action Friday.
|
06-28-18 |
Nationals v. Phillies -122 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 23 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Washington Nationals, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET
This is a very fair price to have Aaron Nola on the mound and to fade a Nationals team off of back to back shutout losses as their struggles at the plate continue. The Phillies are a perfect 7-0 in Nola's home starts this season and he has a 6-0 mark with a 1.86 ERA at Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia's ace right-hander also has a solid 3.12 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Nats. Washington will counter tonight with a struggling Tanner Roark. The Nationals right-hander is winless with an 8.16 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in his last 3 starts overall. That included his most recent start versus the Phillies and that continued another trend for Roark. That trend is that he struggles badly versus Philadelphia. Roark is 0-3 with an 8.80 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Phillies. In addition to the pitching edge and home field edge here, Philadelphia has also been the hotter team at the plate. The Nationals have averaged scoring just 3 runs per game in their last 11 games! The Phillies have averaged scoring 5.4 runs per game in their last 10 games. The Phils are a stellar 10-4 this season as a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175 this season. Washington has the "benefit" of an off-day yesterday but they have a losing record in that situation this season and that includes 3 straight losses when they are playing a game after an off day! The Nationals enter this series having lost 11 of their last 15 games. The Phillies have won 10 of their last 16 games and we look for them to improve to 8-0 this season in Nola's home starts! Nola and the Phillies roll in this one! Bet Philadelphia on the money line for a TOP PLAY in early evening action Thursday.
|
06-27-18 |
Angels v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 |
|
6-9 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER the Total - Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET
The Angels have a .431 slugging percentage in road games this season. That ranks Los Angeles 6th in the majors out of 30 teams! The Red Sox have a .502 slugging percentage at home and that ranks Boston #1 in MLB on the season! The wind will be blowing out at Fenway Park at a good clip this evening and the Red Sox have averaged scoring 7.8 runs per game in their last 5 games. The Angels have not hit well in their past two road games but they should turn things around tonight as only 1 of their last 9 road games has stayed under the total. LA is familiar with Boston's Rick Porcello and have hit him well through the years. After a rare home shutout loss against him in April, the Angels lineup is likely to get some payback on a hitter-friendly night at a hitter-friendly ballpark Wednesday. Los Angeles will need all the runs they can get because their starting pitcher, Andrew Heaney is likely to struggle here. The Angels southpaw is winless with a 5.13 ERA in his 6 road starts this season. Heaney allowed only 1 earned run in his most recent start but that was at home and he did allow 9 hits in 7 innings in that outing. Tonight the road struggles resume for Heaney against a potent Red Sox lineup. Boston has played 15 games this season as a home favorite in a money line range of -125 to -175 and only 5 of the 15 (33%) have stayed under the total. Look for double digits again at Fenway Park tonight. Bet the OVER in Boston in early evening action Wednesday.
|
06-27-18 |
Yankees v. Phillies OVER 8.5 |
|
0-3 |
Loss |
-108 |
8 h 39 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER the Total - New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
Mild weather with a stronger breeze tonight blowing out toward left-center. Both teams have plenty of home run pop in the lineup and we have got a low total to work with here as, after opening up at a 9 it dropped to an 8.5 this morning. Each of the first two games in this series stayed under the total but the Yankees have averaged scoring 5.3 run per game in their last 3 games and Philadelphia should fare much better against Luis Cessa tonight after getting shutout by Luis Severino last night. In fact, the Phillies were 11-4 to the over in their 15 games prior to this series. New York is 6-3-1 to the over in Wednesday games this season. The Phillies are 15-8-1 to the over in home games where their money line ranges from -125 to +125 this season. The Yankees Cessa is making his first start of this season and he is 4-7 with a 4.41 ERA in 31 MLB appearances including 14 starts. The Phillies Zach Eflin has been pitching well of late but there is a unique statistic that is certainly worthy of mentioning here. In his last 6 starts Eflin faced the Brewers twice and was successful in both starts. However, in the other 4 outings Eflin gave up 30 hits in just 21 and 1 / 3 innings! Now the Philly righty faces a powerful Yankees lineup and we expect him to get hit hard. The Phillies will also do some damage against Cessa as he is 2-7 as a starter at the MLB level and he compiled a 5.82 ERA in his 5 starts last season. Bet the OVER in Philadelphia in early evening action Wednesday
|
06-26-18 |
Royals v. Brewers -1.5 |
|
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 47 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Milwaukee Brewers Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET
The Brewers are off of back to back losses (Saturday and Sunday) and were off Monday. They're certainly ready to go here and Milwaukee had won 6 of their last 9 before the back to back losses. 25 of the Brewers last 38 wins have come by two runs or more and they offer great value here at a small price by taking them on the run line -1.5 runs. Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta has a 2.30 ERA and has allowed only 6 hits while striking out 25 in the 15 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his first 3 starts this season. The Royals Jake Junis is at the other end of the spectrum and has gone 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA in his last 3 starts. Kansas City is off of a win yesterday but they are still just 3-17 in their last 20 games. It was a rare shutout win for the Royals and they are 0-5 this season when off of a shutout victory. Their anemic offense has played a huge role in having an awful June and KC's struggles at the plate are likely to continue against a tough hurler in this one. The Brewers are 5-1 the last 6 times they've been a home favorite in a range of -175 to -250 and, as you can see per the above, there is plenty of support for expecting this win to come by 2 or more runs! Bet Milwaukee on the run line (-1.5 runs) in evening action Tuesday.
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06-26-18 |
Yankees v. Phillies OVER 7.5 |
|
6-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 19 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER the Total - New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET
Mild weather with light breeze blowing out toward left-center. Both teams have plenty of home run pop in the lineup and we have got a very low total to work with here. Of course the 7.5 posted on this one makes sense based on the long-term reputation of the Yankees Luis Severino and the Phillies Jake Arrieta. The key to the value here is that both of these starters are showing signs they could struggle here. Severino allowed 3 earned runs on 8 hits in less than 6 innings of work in his most recent start. Also, in his most recent road start Severino did allow 2 earned runs in 5 innings to a weak-hitting Mets lineup. The Phillies struggled at the plate last night but had averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their 7 prior games and should respond tonight after back to back losses. Both bullpens gave up some last night and both pens could be called into action again early tonight. Severino has failed to complete 6 innings in 2 of his last 3 starts and now let us talk about Jake Arrieta. The Phillies right-hander has a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts and his strikeout numbers are down. That is particularly bad news here because when the Bronx Bombers are making contact, a lot of good things tend to happen for the Yankees on the scoreboard because they are loaded with sluggers. Arrieta has allowed 4 homers in his last 3 starts and only 4 of his 14 starts this season have resulted in an under. Also, the Phillies were 11-4 to the over their last 15 games prior to last night's game staying under the total. New York is a long-term 10-5 to the over when they are a road favorite of -175 or more. The Phillies are a long-term 25-16 to the over as a home dog of +175 or more. Bet the OVER in Philadelphia in early evening action Tuesday
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06-25-18 |
Nationals v. Rays OVER 7 |
|
0-11 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 39 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER the Total - Washington Nationals @ Tampa Bay Rays, Monday at 7:10 PM ET
This total opened up at a 7.5 and dropped to a 7 and this has added value here on the over. Both of these southpaw starters have solid long-term reputations but the fact is that neither one of them have been pitching well of late. The Nationals Gio Gonzalez is 0-2 with a 7.43 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Rays Blake Snell has a 3.00 ERA in his last 3 starts but note the 1.56 WHIP. The TB left-hander has had issues with command of his pitches lately and he'll be facing a Washington lineup buoyed in confidence by a huge 8-6 divisional win over the Phillies last night. The Nationals rallied from a 6-2 deficit in that game and that is a huge boost for the Nats heading into this one. As for the Rays, they have won 6 straight home games and have scored at least 4 runs in 4 of those 6 games. Washington has scored 5 runs or more in 3 of their last 4 road games and also tallied double digits in hits in each of those 3 games. The Nationals also exploded for 17 hits in last night's game. With this total dropping to a 7, all we need here is 3 runs from each team and we're guaranteed NOT to lose this play as it would have to end at least 4-3. We fully expect at least a 5-4 game however (and a winning "over" play) as both these starting pitchers recent issues continue. The over is 4-1 in Snell's last 5 home starts. Also, we look for the over to improve to 3-1 in the last 4 starts Gonzalez has made. Last but certainly not least, the over is 27-15 in the Rays last 42 Monday games. Bet the OVER in Tampa Bay in early evening action Monday
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06-24-18 |
Blue Jays v. Angels OVER 8.5 |
Top |
7-6 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 8 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels, Sunday at 4:07 PM ET
Sam Gaviglio has struggled on the road since coming up to the majors. In his 8 road starts at the MLB level he has allowed 14 homers! Last year with the Mariners Gaviglio compiled a 5.58 ERA on the road. This season with the Blue Jays, Gaviglio has compiled a 7.05 ERA on the road. All 3 of his road starts this season have gone over the total and we fully expect another one here. The Blue Jays right-hander enters this start in poor current form as he has given up 7 earned runs on 13 hits and 4 walks in the 7 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last two starts. The Angels have plenty of slugging power and the ball carries better in day games in Anaheim and the weather forecast looks favorable for the hitters in this one. The Blue Jays are 18-11 to the over in day games this season and the over is 7-3 in Toronto's Sunday games this year. Although Los Angeles has recorded back to back unders they previously had gone 10 straight games with an under! The fact that a converted reliever, Felix Pena, is making just his 2nd career start is another key factor with this play. Pena has a 5.04 ERA at the MLB level in his 39 career appearances and only 1 of those was a start. That was against the Cardinals earlier this week and Pena hit a batter and walked 3 in his 4 innings of work. He has been hit at a .313 clip this this season by left-handed bats and he'll see a good number of those in facing the Blue Jays this afternoon. Also, Pena is unlikely to work deep into this game (only went 4 innings in his first start) and the Angels bullpen (and Jays bullpen for that matter) both rank in the bottom third of the majors in terms of batting average against. Last night's big 3-run homer for Toronto with two outs in the top of the 9th was a big momentum-building hit for the Blue Jays heading into Sunday's series finale. The Jays stay hot at the plate here but the Angels also should enjoy a huge day as Gaviglio's long-term road struggles continue. Bet the OVER in the Los Angeles Angels game in late afternoon action Sunday.
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06-23-18 |
Padres +151 v. Giants |
|
3-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY 9* ON San Diego Padres Money Line (+) @ San Francisco Giants, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET
When you look at today's board and the larger favorites, one match-up that stands out is this one. The Giants are a very large favorite considering they have a losing record on the season. Yes, of course, the Padres are not a great team but San Diego is 4 games below .500 on the road just as they are 4 games below .500 at home this season. The point being that there is not a huge home/road dichotomy with the Padres and yet built-in home pricing is in effect here. That means we can fade an over-rated San Francisco team and get big dog value in doing so. Keep in mind, the Giants Andrew Suarez is only 2-4 this season and the lefty has "led" San Francisco to an ugly 3-8 record in his 11 starts! Does this sound like a team that should be priced in the -170 range like they are here? Of course not! The Padres got back on track with a big win last night and it was the kind of win (got some clutch hits in the 9th to seal it) that carries a lot of confidence into the next game. San Diego has Jordan Lyles on the mound for this one. The Padres are 4-3 in his last 7 starts and the righty has allowed 2 runs or less in half of his starts this season. Off of a strong start at Atlanta, Lyles should keep the momentum going here. San Diego is 2-0 in his starts versus divisional opponents this season. The Padres are a solid 8-4 (67%) in Saturday games this season and have won both of Lyles' day game starts this year. The Giants managed just 2 runs yesterday and they are 1-4 the last 5 times they are off of a game in which they were held to 3 runs or less. Grab the big dog value here and fade an over-rated favorite. Bet the San Diego Padres on the money line in late afternoon action Saturday.
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06-22-18 |
Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 9 |
|
10-14 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 46 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER the Total - Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox, Friday at 7:10 PM ET
This is a rematch of Saturday's 1-0 Mariners win in Seattle. That game had a total set at 8.5 runs and the game only totaled 8 hits! That said, how can the rematch have opened with a total set at 9.5 runs? Precisely! Don't be fooled here. The fact is that when two solid lineups like the Mariners and Red Sox have are getting a second look at a pitcher they just faced, you know the results are going to be much different! Of course the odds makers know this too and that is why this situation demanded a higher total. Of course helping the cause tonight is the fact that Fenway Park is a hitter-friendly park and the wind is likely to be blowing out toward left field for much of this game! The Mariners game at Yankee Stadium yesterday afternoon stayed under the total but they have not recorded back to back unders since very early this month. That is why Seattle is 10-5-1 to the over their last 16 games and we look for that trend to continue here. The Red Sox finally got their sticks back on track with a huge 9-run outburst at Minnesota yesterday afternoon. Now Boston is back home where they have the #1 slugging percentage (.493) in the majors this season! Boston has had 12 games so far this season where they were a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175. So far only 4 of the 12 (33%) have resulted in an under. Also, the Mariners Wade LeBlanc had given up 11 hits and 5 walks in 9 innings combined in his two starts prior to the successful one versus Boston Saturday. Red Sox knuckle-balling right-hander Steven Wright has good numbers for far this season but this will be just his 4th start and the first two were against struggling teams (Tigers and Orioles) and now he faces a quality Mariners team for a 2nd time in just 6 days! This one will surprise many after what happened in Saturday's pitchers duel. This one is a slug-fest. Bet the OVER in Boston in early evening action Friday.
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06-21-18 |
Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 8.5 |
|
3-11 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER the Total - St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET
Each of the two games of Milwaukee's series with Pittsburgh stayed under the total (yesterday's series finale was rained out) but the Brewers have not recorded 3 straight under results in the past two weeks! Milwaukee now returns home to host the Cardinals and the Brewers are 9-4 to the over this season in southpaw Brent Suter's 13 starts. St Louis is off of a win at Philly yesterday that stayed just under the total but the Cards entered that game having gone 4-1 to the over in their 5 prior road games. The Cardinals are starting Carlos Martinez here and he has been unable to find the plate lately. Martinez has walked 18 batters in the 12 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The St Louis right-hander has a 7.10 ERA during this rough stretch. The Brewers Suter was strong in his most recent home start but has a 4.96 ERA this season in his 6 home starts and 83% of those have resulted in an over. The Brewers are 7-3 to the over this season when playing after a day off and we are forecasting another one here. Bet the OVER in Milwaukee in evening action Thursday.
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06-21-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 8 |
|
9-3 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER the Total - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET
Pittsburgh's is 14-8 to the over this season in home games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. The Pirates will have Chad Kuhl on the mound as they host the Diamondbacks today. Pittsburgh is 5-2 to the over this season in the Pirates right-hander's home starts this season. Zach Godley gets the start for Arizona in this one. The Diamondbacks right-hander has a 6.32 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. Also, it is an ugly 6.52 ERA and 1.83 WHIP for Godley in his 8 road starts this season. These teams recently met in Arizona and all 3 games went over the total. Also, the over is 4-2 the last 6 times these teams have met in Pittsburgh. The Diamondbacks are a long-term 32-11 to the over (including 8-2 to the over this season) when they're playing after a day off. Also, this season Arizona has gone 15-4 to the over in road games when they are priced in a money line range of +125 to -125. Bet the OVER in Pittsburgh in early evening action Thursday.
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06-20-18 |
Red Sox -137 v. Twins |
Top |
1-4 |
Loss |
-137 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Boston Red Sox Money Line (-) @ Minnesota Twins, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET
This is a very fair price to have David Price on the mound and the Red Sox looking to bounce back off of a loss yesterday. Boston lost 6-2 yesterday but the Twins scored those 6 runs on just 5 hits. As for the Red Sox, they were done in by leaving 11 men on base! That sets this one up perfectly as a bounce back spot for Boston. The Red Sox are 7-0 in the last 7 starts that Price has made. The Boston southpaw has a 2.64 ERA during this 7-0 run in his starts. Also, Price is 10-3 in the 16 starts he has made against Minnesota in his career. The Twins Lance Lynn is 0-2 in the 4 starts he has made against Boston in his career. The Red Sox are 6-2 in Price's 8 road starts this season. Minnesota is just 2-4 in the 6 homes starts Lynn has made this season. Though the Twins beat a lefty yesterday they are facing a very tough lefty on Wednesday and Minny had previously lost 6 of their last 7 games when facing a left-handed starter! The Red Sox are 10-2 this season when they are on the road and the total is set at 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, while the Twins are 2-6 their last 8 versus left-handed starters (that includes yesterday's win), Boston is a fantastic 41-16 versus right-handed starters this season. The Red Sox are also 12-5 their last 17 when off of a loss. One final crucial note here is that Minnesota has a .362 slugging percentage versus left-hand pitching this season and that ranks them dead last in the American League. Price and the Sox roll in this one! Bet the Boston Red Sox on the money line for a TOP PLAY in evening action Wednesday.
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06-19-18 |
Rangers -128 v. Royals |
|
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Texas Rangers Money Line (-) @ Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:15 ET
Which team in the majors is the ONLY team that has less than 11 home wins this season? It is the Royals as they are a horrible 10-27 in home games this season! Not only that, Kansas City is a horrible 1-13 in their last 14 games overall. With that said, we won't hesitate to grab the better team with the better pitching at a very fair price. As a result of the Rangers being on the road for this one, their price is in the -130 range which equates to great value considering the Royals recent struggles as well as the fact that Texas has won 3 straight games and scored 5 runs or more in 6 of their last 7 games. The anemic KC offense has managed to score 5 runs in ANY of their last dozen games. During this stretch Kansas City has averaged scoring only 1.9 runs per game! The Rangers also hold the bullpen edge here as the Royals bullpen ERA ranks them dead last in the AL. Texas has Cole Hamels on the mound here and he has a 2.40 ERA in his 7 road starts this season. He also has revenge against Jason Hammel and the Royals as the Rangers southpaw lost the match-up in late May when these two went head to head. Hammel is winless in his 6 home starts this season and he also has an overall 5.00 ERA on the season. Texas has won 9 of their last 14 when they are a road favorite in a range of -125 to -175. The Royals have lost 16 of 20 home games this season when they are price in the -125 to +125 range. Two teams going in opposite directions and big pitching edge here. Bet Texas on the money line in evening action Tuesday
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06-18-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Angels OVER 7.5 |
|
7-4 |
Win
|
107 |
9 h 8 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER the Total - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Angels, Monday at 10:05 PM ET
With yesterday's game going over the total, the Angels have not an under in any of their last 7 games as Los Angeles has gone 6-0-1 to the over during this stretch. LA has allowed an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. Even though Jaime Barria has great numbers on the season, his last 3 starts indicate a downward trend could be on the horizon. Barria shutdown the Rangers in 1 of his last 3 starts but the Texas lineup has struggled for much of this season. In his other two starts - facing the tougher lineups of the Mariners and the Yankees - Barria has given up 7 runs (6 earned) on 14 hits (including 5 homers) in just 10 innings of work. With Zack Greinke on the mound for the Diamondbacks in this one, the under has been a popular choice early and the line has moved from an 8 to a 7.5 which has opened up additional value here. Greinke is just 2-4 with a 5.91 ERA in his 6 road starts this season. The over is 11-5-1 in Arizona's last 17 games and we expect another one here as both of these hurlers are commanding respect from the betting markets and yet there is reason to believe that both are likely to have some struggles in this one. Bet the OVER in the Los Angeles Angels game in late night action Monday.
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06-17-18 |
Angels v. A's OVER 8.5 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 54 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland A's, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
With yesterday's game going over the total, the Angels have not an under in any of their last 6 games as Los Angeles has gone 5-0-1 to the over. Is a perfect 5-0 run to the over for the A's after the 6-4 win Saturday. Temperatures Sunday afternoon will be near 70 degrees in Oakland and the wind will be blowing out at a good clip at Oakland Coliseum. The Angels Andrew Heaney had a good start versus the A's last season but that was at home. This start is on the road and Heaney has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last two road starts. The LA southpaw is winless on the season in his starts away from home and has produced a 5.68 ERA on the road this year. The Athletics will have Daniel Mengden on the mound and that should lead to plenty of runs for the road team in this one. The A's right-hander is 0-2 with a 13.49 ERA in his two career starts versus the Angels and that includes a start earlier this season. Like Heaney, Mengden enters this start in poor current form as he has allowed 6 earned runs in each of his last two starts even though he didn't last 5 innings in either start! Mengden allowed 6 homers in those two starts and Heaney is coming off of a start where he allowed 3 homers! With the trending of these two lineups as well as these two starting pitchers, we're happy to take advantage of the low total posted on this one. Bet the OVER in Oakland for a TOP PLAY in afternoon action Sunday.
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06-16-18 |
Nationals -1.5 v. Blue Jays |
|
0-2 |
Loss |
-130 |
7 h 48 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Washington Nationals Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 4 PM ET
The Nationals lost yesterday's game but are still 6-2 in inter-league action this season and also 29-14 in games against right-handed starters this season. Washington has staff ace Max Scherzer on the mound for this one. The right-hander is 10-2 with a 2.00 ERA on the season and all but one of the Nationals wins with him starting this season have featured a victory margin of at least 2 runs. We like the value here with Washington priced in a low price range (currently -130) on the run line in a game they should dominate. The Nationals Scherzer has struck out 34 while allowing only 11 hits in his last 3 starts! Although Toronto's Marco Estrada is off of consecutive solid starts he faced two struggling teams - Tigers and Orioles. Estrada faces a much tougher lineup here and his win versus Baltimore Sunday was his first home win of the entire season. Conversely, Scherzer is 6-1 in his 7 road starts this season! The Nationals are 27-6 in recent seasons (including 6-1 this season) when they are on the road and favored by -175 or more. 9 of the Blue Jays last 10 losses have come by a margin of 2+ runs and the run line value here is too good to pass up given the huge pitching advantage for the road team. We look for Toronto to drop to 2-9 on the season in Saturday games as this one turns into a road rout! Bet Washington on the run line (-1.5 runs) in afternoon action Saturday.
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06-15-18 |
Astros v. Royals OVER 9 |
|
7-3 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 2 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER the Total - Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals, Friday at 8:15 PM ET
The Astros remained red hot with yesterday's win. Houston has now won 8 straight games and the Astros have averaged scoring 7 runs per game during this hot streak. The over is now 14-4-1 in Houston's last 19 games. Long-term Houston is 45-21 to the over in home games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs. The Royals are a long-term 51-32 to the over when they are a home dog priced at a money line of +175 or greater. They are a huge dog here due to Charlie Morton's long-term reputation but he has not pitched well recently. In his most recent start Morton was all over the place with his pitches and walked 6 batters plus he hit 4 batters. While one could just write this off as nothing but a one-time occurrence, the fact is that Morton has been "off" for some time now as he has been getting hit hard when he does find the plate. In his two prior starts, the Astros right-hander allowed 9 earned runs on 17 hits (including 4 homers) in 11 and 1 / 3 innings. His counterpart Friday is also a struggling hurler. Jake Junis gets the start for the Royals and he has a 5.79 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Royals right-hander allowed 3 homers in his most recent start. Junis allowed 7 earned runs in less than 4 innings when he faced the Astros last season. Morton gave up 5 earned runs in less than 7 innings in his lone career start at Kauffman Stadium. KC certainly has not hit well lately but the struggling Morton means the Royals will surprise people tonight. At the same time, the Astros are so hot at the plate that they should have no trouble with the offerings of Junis in this one. Bet the OVER in Kansas City in evening action Friday
|
06-14-18 |
Astros -1.5 v. A's |
|
7-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Houston Astros Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Oakland A's, Thursday at 3:35 ET
The Astros have won 7 straight games and they have Justin Verlander on the mound here. The Houston ace has gone 8-2 with a 1.45 ERA on the season. The 9 wins that the Astros have with Verlander on the mound this season all were games decided by more than a single run. Houston at -1.5 runs is where the value is in this game as the juice is very manageable on a favorite that would otherwise require a bettor to lay 2 to 1 odds on the money line. The Astros last 7 wins have come by an average margin of 3 runs per game. Since May 1st, Houston has won 24 games and 22 of the 24 victories have come by a margin of 2 or more runs! The A's Frankie Montas has enjoyed success so far this season. However, in the minors last season he made 9 appearances (8 starts) and had a 5.22 ERA. In the minors this season he has made 9 starts and has gone 1-5 with a 4.39 ERA. Even though he has had some surprising success at the MLB level this season he has only made 3 starts and 2 of the 3 came against a Royals team that is one of the weaker lineups in the majors! Also, Montas full MLB stats the last 3 seasons have him at a combined 4-3 with a 4.72 ERA in 33 appearances (5 starts). In other words, he is certainly no Verlander! Also, Oakland is 10-23 in divisional games this season and the A's 34 losses this season have featured 26 defeats (76%) coming by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Astros offense stays hot and they've got one of the most dominant pitchers in the game today on the mound. That equates to a road rout! Bet Houston on the run line (-1.5 runs) in afternoon action Thursday.
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