Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-06-22 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Seattle vs Houston, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - These 2 A.L. West teams have already met 9 times with 6 going Under the total. Only once have they played a game this season that scored more than 9 runs and in 6 of the 9 meetings they’ve scored 7 or less. Their 9 meetings this season have averaged 6.3 total RPG. Javier is on the mound for Houston and he’s been lights out. In his 6 starts he has allowed 2 ER’s or less in 5 and 1 ER or less 4 times. He completely shut down Seattle the only time he faced them this season not allowing a single ER in a Houston 4-0 win. His ERA at home this season is 0.38 with a WHIP of 0.72! The M’s counter with veteran Robbie Ray, who won the Cy Young award with Toronto last season, but he’s been up and down this year. However , he has allowed 4 ER’s or less in 8 of his last 9 starts and he has not faced Houston this season which is an advantage to him. On top of that, the Astros have really struggled vs left handed pitchers this year hitting just .212 while averaging only 2.9 runs per 9 innings. Houston has been a massive UNDER team this year with 39 Unders and just 15 Overs. Their bats aren’t great (21st in RPG) especially vs lefties as we mentioned but their pitching staff has been outstanding. They are 3rd overall in team ERA and they have the #1 bullpen in MLB with a 2.64 ERA. Dating back to the end of last season, Houston is now 45-16 to the UNDER! Seattle has a poor road record and they’ve struggled offensively away from home with a .225 batting average and 3.6 RPG. Seattle road games have averaged just barely 8 total RPG while Houston home games have averaged 6.4 total RPG. Over the last 10 games, Seattle is averaging less than 8 total RPG and Houston is averaging less than 7 total RPG. We look for another low scoring game tonight. |
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06-05-22 | Mariners v. Rangers -125 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -125 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
#926 ASA PLAY ON Texas -125 over Seattle, Sunday at 2:35 PM ET - Texas starting pitcher Martin Perez has been one of the top pitchers in MLB this season. His ERA is 1.42 and he has not allowed a single HR in 10 starts. After allowing 3 ER’s in each of his first 2 starts back in mid April, Perez has allowed only 4 ER’s in his last 8 starts! He faces a Seattle team that has a record of 11-20 on the road this season and getting outscored by 1 RPG. The M’s have struggled vs left handers especially on the road where they have a batting average of .198 and Perez is allowing opponents to hit just .199 this season. Not a good mix for Seattle. George Kirby has been solid in his first season in the Majors but he’s only pitched 26 career innings. He was very good in his last outing vs light hitting Baltimore but his 2 starts prior to that he allowed 9 ER’s on 16 hits in 10 innings of work. Opponents are hitting a solid .260 vs Kirby and his xERA is higher than his actual ERA. Seattle has the 8th worst bullpen ERA in the Majors while Texas, after a rough start to the season for their relievers, has moved all the way up to 10th in bullpen ERA. Big advantage for Texas pitchers today. The Rangers are playing solid baseball right now winning 7 of their last 11 while Seattle has won only 6 of their last 24 games as a road underdog. Texas gets the win at home. |
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06-04-22 | Nationals v. Reds -124 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -125 over Washington, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - Washington picked up the win here last night and we like Cincy to come out on top at home on Saturday afternoon. The Reds have actually played quite well since their start of the season debacle. They began the season winning just 3 of their first 25 games, however since then they have a winning record at 15-11 their last 26 games. They are 9-6 at home during that stretch. The Reds send Mahle to the hill and he is pitching better than he gets credit for. His ERA is 5.53 but his xFIP is 4.28 and his xERA is just 3.63 telling us he’s been unlucky at times this season. He’s actually allowed 2 ER’s or less in 4 of his last 5 starts and he was one of Cincy’s top starters last year with a 3.75 ERA. Lifetime vs hitters currently on Washington’s roster, Mahle has allowed a batting average of just .196. Washington is 10-17 on the road this year and they have not won back to back road games all season! Fedde hits the hill for the Nats and his ERA is 4.60 which is exactly where his xERA sits as well. His WHIP is 1.53 and he’s had trouble with walks (4.5 per 9 innings) and HR’s (1.2 per 9) this season. He’s had big problems with players currently on the Cincinnati roster as they’ve hit .400 lifetime vs Fedde. He’s backed up by one of the worst bullpens in the league, especially on the road where Washington relievers have an ERA of 6.63. While Cincinnati has turned around their season, the Nationals continue to struggle with a 22-47 record their last 60 road games and 7-25 record their last 32 games after a win. The Reds get the home win on Saturday afternoon. |
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06-03-22 | Twins v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
#920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto -1.5 on the Run Line over Minnesota, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - There isn’t a hotter offensive team in MLB than Toronto right now and they are facing a Minnesota team that is decimated due to injuries and Covid restrictions. The Jays have won 8 straight games and their offense has put up at least 6 runs in all but one of those games. During that 8 game stretch they are averaging 7 RPG and they’ve done some serious damage vs a number of top notch starting pitchers. This team overall probably isn’t quite as good as their 30-20 record as their run differential isn’t great, however they are red hot right now. As we mentioned they are also facing a Minnesota team that is nowhere near 100% and struggling right now. Two of Minnesota’s better offensive players, Correa and Celestino are out due to Covid. Royce Lewis, hitting .300, just came back from a 12 day hiatus due to injury and had to go right back on the IL so he is not available. Now we add in a number of other key players due to Canada’s Covid policy that players must be vaccinated to enter the country. That takes out starting OF Kepler and 3 pitchers that work out of the Minnesota bullpen all unavailable for this series. The Twins come into this game having lost 4 of 5 games @ Detroit, one of the worst teams in MLB, and Minnesota scored only 2 total runs in their last 3 games vs the Tigers. The Twins have won just 3 of their last 10 games and all 10 of those games were vs KC or Detroit who have a combined record of 37-63! In fact, in a weird scheduling situation, the Twins have faced either Detroit or KC in 15 straight games and prior to that they faced Oakland. So Minnesota has played 18 straight games vs the 3 teams who have the worst records in the American League and they are just 10-8 in those games. They take a big step up in competition here and are facing a solid starting pitcher. Toronto will go with left hander Kikuchi on the mound and he has allowed 2 ER’s or less in 8 of his 9 starts. The Minnesota offense is hitting .167 over their last 10 games vs lefties while averaging less than 1 run per 9 innings. The Twins pulled up Chi Chi Gonzalez from the Minors to make his first MLB appearance this season. He has pitched some at the MLB level but not successfully as his ERA’s over the last 3 seasons were 6.46, 6.86, and 5.29. Now facing a red hot offense we expect him to have problems in this game. Toronto is rolling right now, they are 17-8 at home this season, and Minnesota has too many key players out to hang in this one. We’ll take Toronto at -1.5 on the run line at even money |
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06-02-22 | Padres v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
#955/956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – San Diego vs Milwaukee, Thursday at 7:40 PM ET - The Padres are struggling to put runs on the board right now. They are coming off a 3 games series in St Louis where they scored a total of 7 runs. They have not topped 4 runs in any of their last 9 games. Going back further San Diego has topped 4 runs just 2 times in their last 15 games! In their last 8 games the Under is 6-0-2. They’ll be facing Adrian Houser for Milwaukee who just shut them down in San Diego last week allowing 1 ER in 6 innings. The Milwaukee pitching staff as a whole has been great at home this year allowing only 3 RPG. The Brewers have been solid offensively this season, however their kryptonite has been left handed pitchers. For the season they are hitting just .209 vs south paws while averaging 3.7 RPG. Over the last 10 games Milwaukee has hit just .162 vs lefties. They face a good one tonight in Sean Manaea. His overall ERA is 4.02 but he’s pitched better than that with an xERA and xFIP right around 3.50. He’s allowed 3 ER’s or less in 7 of his 9 stars and the current Brewer roster has a total of 14 career plate appearances vs Manaea giving him an extra edge here. These 2 just met in San Diego last week in a low scoring series with games totaling 3, 5, and 5 runs. The 2 teams were only able to muster 39 hits combined in 3 games, or just 13 per game. Dating back to last year, 9 of the last 10 meetings have totaled 8 or fewer runs. We like the UNDER tonight in Milwaukee. |
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06-01-22 | Marlins v. Rockies -110 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
#960 ASA TOP PLAY ON Colorado -120 over Miami, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET – GAME 2 of a Double Header - Colorado took the series opener on Monday by a final score of 7-1. Miami lost that game decisively with their ace Lopez on the mound and they’ve now won just 2 of their last 10 games. Offense has been a big problem as the Marlins have failed to score more than 4 runs in any of their last 10 games. Even yesterday vs an inexperienced starter for Colorado (Feltner) making his first start at home this season, Miami was only able to score 1 run on 5 hits. On the road this year they have a record of just 9-14 with a batting average of .223 while averaging only 3.5 RPG. They face a pitcher with a high ERA today but the Rockies German Marquez is a veteran whose overall numbers indicate he’s pitching better than his ERA might indicate. His xERA and xFIP (3.85) are much lower than his overall ERA (6.20) and he’s been very unlucky this season with a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .350. He’s been one of the Rockies most consistent starters over the last 5 seasons and current players on the Miami roster are hitting just .216 lifetime vs Marquez. We’ve been looking for a spot to jump on this underrated starter and we feel this is it. Miami hasn’t decided on a starter but we expect Cabrera will be on the mound for the first time this season. He’s made only 7 lifetime appearances in the big leagues and his ERA is nearly 6.00 in those games. His overall ERA is the Minor leagues for his career is a pretty average 4.20. Even if Cabrera doesn’t start we’re good with the Rockies who just get it done at home. They have a batting average of .279 at home this season while averaging 6.4 RPG. The Rockies have twice as many wins at home this season (14) as they do on the road (7) and they’ve topped Miami 7 straight times in Denver. Cabrera will be making his first ever start in the Colorado high altitude and we look for him to struggle. We’re getting a low money line price in our opinion here so we’ll grab Colorado in the -120 range. |
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05-30-22 | Braves v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – Atlanta vs Arizona, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - Arizona sends their ace Gallen to the mound this evening. He’s been lights out all season long with the exception of one outing, his most recent start. He gave up 6 ER’s in just 5 innings of work last week vs KC but prior to that he had allowed 2 ER’s or less in every start (7 starts). Good pitchers bounce back from poor outings and we look for Gallen to pitch very well tonight. Opposing hitters have a batting average of just .170 vs Gallen and his WHIP is a miniscule 0.83. He has faced current Atlanta hitters in 22 total plate appearances so most have not seen him. In those 22 AB’s he has not allowed a hit. He’s facing a light hitting Braves team with a BA of just .232 on the season (22nd in MLB) but on the road Atlanta hits just .212 this season. The Braves will go with a “bullpen game” here starting reliever Spencer Strider. They hope to get 3 or 4 innings out of him and if so they should be in good shape. Strider has been fantastic out of the bullpen this year allowing just 14 hits in 25 innings pitched and 6 ER’s. None of the Arizona hitters have ever faced Strider so he should have a big time advantage the first time through the line up. After he exits, Atlanta has a solid bullpen ranking 10th in ERA, 9th in WHIP and 4th in HR’s allowed. The DBacks offense continues to sit near the bottom of the Majors in RPG (24th) and batting average (29th). They are coming off a 4 game series vs LA Dodgers in which they scored a total of 8 runs. Arizona’s home games are averaging less than 8 total RPG this season and Atlanta’s road games are also averaging less than 8 RPG. We like the UNDER on Monday night. |
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05-29-22 | Blue Jays v. Angels -125 | Top | 11-10 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
#976 ASA TOP PLAY ON LA Angels -125 over Toronto, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - Toronto has won the first 3 games of this series in LA and we like the Angels to stop the potential sweep today. LA has been the better team all season long. Even with the 3 straight losses, the Angels are 27-21 with a run differential of +43 which is the 2nd best in the American League behind the Yankees. The Jays are 26-20, but they do have a losing record on the road and they have actually been outscored this season by 2 runs. They are the ONLY team in MLB that has a winning record with a negative run differential so they’ve been quite fortunate. Toronto will be facing left hander Sandoval today for the Angels who has been very solid all season long. He has an ERA of 1.79 and he has allowed 1 ER or less in 5 of his 7 starts. At home Sandoval is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and a WHIP of just 1.00. The Blue Jays have struggled vs lefties this season averaging just 3.4 RPG and on the road vs southpaws they have put up only 2.5 RPG on the season. LA has actually outhit Toronto in the first 3 games of this series despite losing all 3 and we look for their bats to put up big numbers today. They’ll be facing Toronto starter Berrios who has an ERA of 4.75 but on the road he’s really had problems with an ERA of almost 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.48. He’s coming off a solid start at home vs Seattle, however in his 2 starts prior to that he allowed 11 ER’s in just 10 innings, both on the road. He’s also struggled vs the hitters on LA as they have a lifetime batting average over .300 vs Berrios. The Angels rank in the top 9 in MLB in RPG (6th), batting average (9th), OPS (2nd) and HR’s per 9 innings (2nd). Ohtani was also back in the LA line up yesterday after missing Friday with a sore back. The Jays rank 25th in RPG and 18th in both batting average and OPS. The Angels also have an edge across the board in all key bullpen stats. This one sets up very nicely for the motivated home team looking to avoid a sweep. |
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05-28-22 | Pirates v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Pittsburgh vs San Diego, Saturday at 10:10 PM ET - Both of these offenses have been below average all season long and both are struggling as we speak. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in RPG, 27th in batting average and OPS, and 25th in HR’s per 9 innings. San Diego sits at the middle of the pack (15th) in runs scored but that doesn’t match up with their other key stats so they’ve been a bit lucky in that regard. The Padres are 23rd in both batting average and OPS and 27th in HR’s per 9 innings. Over their last 10 games Pittsburgh is averaging 3 RPG and San Diego is putting up just 3.3 RPG. The Pirates have topped 4 runs only ONCE in their last 14 games and they are averaging just 2.5 RPG during that stretch and that includes a 10 run output vs Colorado. San Diego has topped 3 runs only 3 times in their last 10 games. San Diego sends their ace to the mound today. Joe Musgrove has not allowed more than 2 ER’s in any of his 8 starts this season and opponents are hitting just .208 against him. At home this year his ERA is 1.80 with a WHIP of 0.75. He always brings some extra juice vs the Pirates who traded him to the Padres in 2021. In his only meeting with Pittsburgh this season, Musgrove allowed 1 ER in 7 innings of work. JT Brubaker is on the hill for Pittsburgh. His overall numbers are better than his 4.64 ERA might indicate. His xERA and xFIP are both lower than his ERA and he's allowing opponents to hit just .222. In his last 7 starts Brubaker has allowed more than 3 ER’s just once and he’s coming off his most impressive outing of the season holding Colorado to 0 ER’s in 6.2 innings. Last night these 2 totaled 7 runs but did so on just 11 hits. Tonight we see a pitcher’s duel and this one stays UNDER the total. |
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05-27-22 | Astros -1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
#977 ASA 9* TOP PLAY ON Houston -1.5 on Run Line over Seattle, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - Houston is -200 at most places in this one and by laying -1.5 runs we can knock that down to -120. Seattle is struggling right now to say the least. They have lost 6 straight games and 8 of their last 9. They have been outscored by 19 runs over their last 6 games or an average of -3.2 RPG. They were just swept at home in a 2 game series vs Oakland who has a 19-28 record on the season and they were outhit 21 to 9 in those 2 games. Now they face one of the top pitchers in MLB in Justin Verlander so we don’t expect their offense to catch fire here. Verlander has allowed just 7 ER’s in 8 starts this season and over his last 3 starts he has not allowed a single ER in 19 innings of work. His WHIP is a miniscule 0.72 and opposing hitters have a batting average of just .129 vs Verlander. He’s faced Seattle twice this season and the Astros have won those 2 games by a combined score of 11-2. In those 2 starts he’s allowed 2 ER’s in 14.2 innings with 11 K’s and no walks. Flexen is on the mound for Seattle and his numbers aren’t great this season. His ERA is almost 5.00 and opposing teams have a batting average of .275 when he is pitching. While Verlander is peaking right now, Flexen has struggled his last 3 starts allowing 14 ER’s in 14 innings. He has made 8 starts this year and Seattle has won 1 of those games. When the 2 starters exit, Houston has a huge edge in the bullpen leading MLB in ERA while Seattle is 25th. Houston is 4-2 this year vs Seattle and in their most recent series in early May, the Astros outscored the M’s 14-2 in 3 games. Seattle has a -29 run differential on the season while Houston sits at +47 (3rd in MLB behind Dodgers and Yankees). We like Houston to win this one by at least 2 runs. |
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05-27-22 | Blue Jays -117 v. Angels | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
#973 ASA TOP PLAY ON Toronto -115 over LA Angels, Friday at 9:35 PM ET - Toronto picked up the win here last night topping the Angels 6-3. That’s 6 wins in the last 9 games for the Jays and we like them to get another one tonight. The offense has been up and down this season for Toronto but we expect them to have success tonight vs Silseth, a rookie starter making just his 3rd appearance in the Majors. He’s started 2 games thus far, both vs Oakland whose offense ranks near the bottom of MLB in a number of key categories. He didn’t allow a run in the first game and then the A’s got to him with 3 ER’s in just 4.1 innings last week. Silseth allowed 8 baserunners in that game. Prior to his 2 starts vs Oakland, he had never pitched above AA level and had pretty average numbers including in college where his ERA 4.35 and 5.55 in his 2 seasons at Tennessee and Arizona. The Blue Jays should have a solid edge on the mound with Manoah who has a 1.62 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 8 starts this season. He has not allowed more than 2 ER’s in any of his starts this year and has walked just 5 batters in his last 7 starts. He had an ERA of just 3.22 in his 20 starts last year so Manoah has been very consistent. LAA has struggled offensively as of late averaging a full 1 RPG less over their last 10 compared to their season average. They have won just 3 of their last 9 games and could be without one of their top offensive performers tonight as Ohtani injured his back pitching last night. The bullpen numbers of these 2 teams are fairly even for the season, however Toronto relievers have been much better of late with an ERA of 3.00 and a batting average allowed of .195 over their last 10 games compared to the Angels 5.08 ERA and .250 BA allowed. We have this money line set higher in favor of the Jays so our value is on Toronto tonight. |
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05-26-22 | Guardians v. Tigers UNDER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Cleveland vs Detroit, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET - Weather is not looking conducive for scoring in this one. Light rain and 10+ MPH winds blowing in from center field. Detroit’s offense has been poor all season ranking dead last in RPG and OPS. The Tigers are averaging just 2.8 RPG on the season and just 2.6 RPG over their last 10. Cleveland has OK overall offensive numbers but over their last 10 games they are hitting just .199 as a team and on the road vs lefties just .193 for the season. They’ll be facing one of the top left handers in MLB tonight in Tarik Skubal. He has allowed just 7 ER’s over his last 7 starts and in 5 of those starts he has held his opponent scoreless. He faced Cleveland on May 20th and held the Indians scoreless through 5 innings before leaving after taking a line drive off his lower leg. He is fine and will make the start tonight. Cleveland will be going with a “bullpen” game tonight. They will start lefty Pilkington but we only expect a few innings from him. He’s been solid in his first year in the Majors with an ERA of 2.08 and a WHIP of 1.04 mainly out of the bullpen. Nobody in Detroit’s line up has ever faced him giving Pilkington a nice edge early in the game and with an early exit expected we don’t anticipate the Tiger hitters facing him more than once or twice in this one. After he exits, Detroit’s bullpen has very good numbers. They rank 2nd in ERA in MLB and 2nd in WHIP so we expect Cleveland’s offense to continue their struggles. The Tigers are 29-13 to the UNDER this season and we expect another low scoring game tonight. |
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05-25-22 | Brewers v. Padres -131 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -131 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
pitchers with action: #958 ASA PLAY ON San Diego -130 over Milwaukee, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - These 2 have split the first 2 games of this series but the Padres have outhit the Brewers in both games. In last night’s 4-1 loss to Milwaukee, the Brewers managed 4 runs on just 5 hits while San Diego had 8 hits. We expect the Brewers to struggle to find hits again this afternoon with the Padres sending Yu Darvish to the mound. He’s been fantastic at home this year with a 2-0 record and a 1.37 ERA. He’s allowed only 13 baserunners at home this year in 20 innings of work. His lifetime ERA at Petco Park is just 3.12 and he averages 11 K’s per game at home per 9 innings. San Diego had to face Milwaukee ace and Cy Young award winner Corbin Burnes yesterday. They actually fared quite well with 7 baserunners in 6 innings. Today they face lefty Ashby who is mainly a reliever and gets a few starts now and then. He has much better lifetime numbers out of the bullpen compared to when he starts (3.60 ERA to 4.60 ERA). On top of that, the Padres have been very successful vs left handers this season averaging 5.5 RPG, a full 1 RPG more than vs right handed pitchers. Once the starters exit the Padres have the better bullpen numbers overall with an ERA close to even with Milwaukee but a lower WHIP, opponent batting average, and opponent OB percentage. That edge gets even greater with Brewer closer Hader not available in this series. Take San Diego at home this afternoon. |
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05-24-22 | Royals v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 102 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
#930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona -1.5 on the Run Line over Kansas City, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - Laying -1.5 runs here knocks the money line down to about even money. Arizona throws their ace Zac Gallen vs the light hitting Royals tonight. Gallen has been fantastic all season and we just don’t see KC’s offense doing much of anything tonight. Gallen has allowed just 5 ER’s all season in 7 starts for an ERA of 1.14. He’s been even better at home allowing 2 ER’s in 24 innings for an ERA of 0.75. The Royals offense has struggled ranking 24th in runs scored per game and their run differential of -60 is the worst in the American League. They have lost 7 of their last 9 games and 6 of those losses have come by at least 2 runs. Arizona’s offensive numbers for the season are not impressive due to a terrible start to the season at the plate. They’ve looked much better as of late averaging over 5 RPG through their last 10 games. They’ve hit .270 and scored nearly 7 RPG during that 10 game stretch vs right handed pitchers. Tonight they face righty Johnathan Heasley who has been a career minor leaguer for the most part. He has a total of 23 IP in the Majors in his 5 year career. This season he has pitched 8.1 innings, walked 7 batters and allowed 15 base runners. The Royals lost both of his starts this year by a combined score of 6 to 1. He has an ERA this season of 4.32 but he’s been rather lucky has his xERA is above 6.00. If Heasley has a short stint tonight, the KC bullpen ranks 3rd worst in the Majors in ERA and over their last 10 games the relievers have an ERA of almost 7.00. We like Arizona’s offense to have success tonight while KC will struggle to put numbers up vs one of the top starters in MLB. We’ll lay 1.5 runs in this one. |
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05-23-22 | Phillies -113 v. Braves | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
#957 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia -115 over Atlanta, Monday at 7:20 PM ET - After losing 3 straight games, Philly has some nice momentum heading to Atlanta after beating the Dodgers yesterday. They have not been on the road since May 15th so the Phillies should be well rested. In their most recent road trip (May 12 – 15) they took 3 out of 4 games from the Dodgers in LA. Atlanta is off a loss on Sunday @ Miami. This will be their first home game since May 15th after a long 6 game road trip so a tougher spot for the host here. The Phillies should have a solid offensive showing here vs left hander Davidson who is making just his 2nd appearance of the season. He’s thrown only 7.2 innings this season and allowed 13 baserunners during that stretch. Davidson has had control problems walking a whopping 17 in his 29 career innings in his short MLB career. The Phillies line up has been very successful vs lefties this season averaging over 6 RPG their last 10. On the road for the season they having a team batting average of .288 vs LH’s while putting up 7.7 RPG! The Braves might have problems on offense in this one. They are hitting just .222 overall this season (24th in MLB) and they are getting outscored at home this season. They will face Wheeler who is rounding into form after a rough start to the season. Over his last 4 starts he has allowed just 3 ER’s in 26 innings on only 17 hits. He’s pitching much better right now than his 4.26 ERA and over the last 2 seasons Wheeler has been the Phillies ace with an ERA’s of 2.78 and 2.92. We’re getting the better offense with their ace on the mound here basically at even money. We’ll take Philadelphia on Monday. |
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05-22-22 | Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
#907/908 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – Washington vs Milwaukee, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - The Washington offense has scored a grand total of 1 run in this series thus far in 2 games. They have scored 2 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games and those 9 games have totaled less than 8.5 runs 6 times. The chances of them getting on track offensively in this one are not good. Peralta is on the mound for Milwaukee and his ERA is 3.52 on the season but he’s pitching much better than that right now. He had 1 poor outing in mid April allowing 6 ER’s in just 3 innings vs St Louis throwing off his season long numbers. Since that outing he has allowed 5 ER’s in his last 5 starts. In those 5 starts he has 38 strikeouts and just 6 walks. The Milwaukee pitching staff as a whole is allowing just 2.8 RPG at home and with Washington struggling right now, that trend should continue. The Nats will throw Aaron Sanchez who doesn’t have great seasonal numbers with a high ERA but he’s pitching better than that. His ERA is 7.94 which is by far the highest of his career, but his xERA (expected ERA) based on how he’s actually pitched this season is 4.50 and his xFIP is 4.49 indicating he’s actually pitching OK this year. His BABIP (batting average balls in play) is a very high .359 which tells us he’s had some tough luck so far this season. In his career vs current Brewer hitters he’s allowed a batting average of just .222 with on OBA of .291 so very solid. Milwaukee games have stayed under this current total of 8.5 in 4 of their last 5 games including both in this series (6 & 7 total runs). We like the UNDER in this one. |
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05-21-22 | White Sox v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Yankees -1.5 on Run Line over Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 1 PM ET - These 2 met last weekend and the Yankees took 3 of 4 games in Chicago. In that series NY outscored the Sox 32 to 15 and out hit them with a batting average of .286 to .231. The Yanks continue to roll with MLB’s best record at 28-10 and the 2nd best run differential at +72 (Dodgers have top run differential). They’ve won 8 of their last 10 but are coming off a rare loss at Baltimore which bodes well for NY as they are 15-3 SU coming off a loss dating back to the end of last season. Yankee ace lefty Cortes hits the hill tonight and he completely shut down the White Sox over the weekend giving up just 1 run over 8 innings. The Sox were able to get just 3 batters on base during that 8 inning span. Cortes has an ERA of 1.35 on the season averaging almost 12 K’s per 9 innings, allowing an opponent batting average of .164 with a WHIP of 0.85. He’s also backed up by one of the best bullpens in baseball. We don’t expect Chicago, who ranks 26th in runs scored and 26th in OPS, to do much of anything offensively in this one. Chicago is also in a tough situational spot having just played 5 games in 4 days @ KC and now on the road again. The Yankees don’t have any problems offensively right now. They lead MLB in OPS, 2nd in HR’s per game, and 4th in runs scored. They face Dallas Keuchel who has been very poor this season after struggling as well a year ago. He has an ERA of 5.54 and a WHIP of almost 2.00. Keuchel is allowing opposing hitters a batting average of .319 and he’s walking over 5 batters per 9 innings. He pitched fairly well vs NY over the weekend going 5 innings and not allowing a run, however the Yanks had 7 baserunners during that 5 inning stretch. On the road this season Keuchel has an ERA of over 11.00 and a WHIP of almost 3.00! The Yanks average over 6 RPG at home vs lefties this season and we like them to pound Keuchel in this one. Let’s lay 1.5 runs with New York on Saturday in early day game action. |
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05-19-22 | Reds v. Guardians OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 11 m | Show |
#965/966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Cincinnati vs Cleveland, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - Two big time OVER teams facing off here as the Reds are 22-12-2 to the OVER and the Guardians are 20-14 to the OVER. Both teams have been playing well offensively as of late with Cleveland averaging 4.95 RPG over their last 10 and Cincinnati averaging 5.93 their last 10. Cleveland sends Quantrill to the hill and while his ERA is a solid 3.93, his xERA (expected ERA) and xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) are both quite a bit higher telling us he’s been a bit lucky this season. Tyler Mahle is pitching for the Reds and his ERA is approaching 6.00 and actually dropped the last 2 games as he allowed only 2 ER’s in each. However, both of those outings were vs Pittsburgh who is 26th in batting average and 29th in total runs scored on the season. Cleveland is 7th in MLB in RPG and 5th in batting average so Mahle will have a tougher go of it today. Both pitchers struggle with walks so we expect plenty of base runners today. The ump behind the plate today is Jerry Meals who has called balls & strikes 6 times this year and his games have averaged 11.5 total runs. We like OVER this afternoon. |
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05-18-22 | Nationals v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
#908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami -1.5 on the Run Line over Washington, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - Yesterday we were on Tampa Bay on the run line and picked up an easy 8-1 win. We see a similar outcome (easy win) tonight with Miami over Washington. Rather than laying -200 with the Marlins we’ll grab the run line at -1.5 and then we are getting +115. Miami has dominated this series this season going a perfect 5-0 thus far and tonight they have their best pitcher on the mound. Pablo Lopez has been fantastic this season giving up just 5 ER’s in starts! He has allowed 0 ER’s in 4 of his 7 starts and has allowed more than 1 ER just one time all season. He’s already faced Washington this year and did not give up an ER in his 6 IP. He’s facing a Nationals team that has really struggled offensively as of late, scoring 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 6 games. In their 5 games vs Miami this season, Washington has scored a total of 8 runs and they have not topped 2 runs in any of those 5 games. They are hitting just .184 as a team in those 5 games averaging less than 6 hits per game. In the first 2 games of this series in Miami, the Nats have been outscored 13-3 and outhit 26-12. Miami is trending upward offensively. They are averaging 6 RPG over their last 6 games and over their last 10 the Marlins are hitting .282 vs right handers and putting up nearly 6 RPG. They’ll be facing Washington starter Josiah Gray who has an ERA of 4.34 and has really struggled his last 2 outings allowing 9 ER’s in 11 IP and 5 HR’s. In his 1 start vs Miami this season, Gray allowed 4 ER’s and 10 baserunners in just 5.2 innings of work. When we get to the bullpens, Miami is superior in almost every key category. We think Washington really struggles offensively again vs one of the top pitchers in the Majors and Miami wins this one by at least 2 runs. |
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05-17-22 | Tigers v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
#970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -1.5 on Run Line over Detroit, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - TB is a huge -275 favorite here but if we take the run line we can knock it down to the -120 range. Tampa is coming off a 3-2 loss yesterday vs the Tigers and Detroit scored the game winner in the 9th inning. The Tigers had only 6 baserunners in 9 innings yesterday and somehow scratched out 3 runs. We think Detroit struggles to score anything today vs McClanahan who is on the hill for Tampa. He has fantastic 2.52 ERA but has actually pitched better than his numbers with an xERA of 2.40 and a ridiculously good xFIP of 1.65. McClanahan is averaging a whopping 13 K’s per 9 innings while walking just 2. He’s facing a Detroit offense that ranks dead last in the Majors in both scoring and OPS. The Tigers, with a 13-23 record, might look like they are on a bit of a roll winning 4 straight but their 3 wins prior to last night were at home where they swept a bad Baltimore team. In the 3 games before that series the Tigers were swept at home by Oakland and scored 4 total runs in that 3 game series. Detroit pitcher Brieske has made 4 starts this season and those are his only 4 appearances in the Majors in his career. His ERA looks solid at 3.86, however his xERA is almost 6.00 and his xFIP is 5.82. Prior to getting called up to Detroit he had an ERA of 4.50 for Toledo in the Minors. His luck factor has been extremely high with opposing hitters BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is just .164. We like Tampa to win this one by at least 2 runs. |
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05-16-22 | Braves v. Brewers -132 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
#908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee -135 over Atlanta, Monday at 7:40 PM ET - These 2 just met in early May in Atlanta and the Braves took 2 of 3 giving Milwaukee a little extra incentive here. The Brewers are happy to be back at home after a long 9 game road trip. At home Milwaukee is 10-4 on the season and run differential of +3 RPG. They average 6.5 RPG at home and vs right handers that number jumps up to 7 RPG at American Family Field! They’ll be facing Ian Anderson who has an ERA of 4.20 and has given up 4 HR’s in his last 5 games. That could be a problem in this one vs a Brewer line up that averages 1.42 HR’s per 9 innings, 2nd in the Majors. The Braves are on the road for the first time since May 4th after a disappointing 4-4 home stand. They are just 6-8 on the road this year hitting just .216 as a team and averaging only 3.4 RPG. They are facing Freddy Peralta for Milwaukee and we feel he is undervalued right now. His ERA is 4.40, but most of that came in his first 2 starts where he struggle back in mid April. His xERA is 3.40 and his FIP is fantastic at 2.37 which lends to the fact he has pitched much better than his ERA suggests. In his last 4 starts Peralta has allowed just 4 ER’s with 28 strikeouts and only 5 walks. At home this season he is 2-0 with an ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of just 0.93. Versus current players on Atlanta’s roster, Peralta has faced 49 plate appearances and the Braves hitters have a batting average of just .209. We like Milwaukee to get the win at home tonight. |
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05-15-22 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -110 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
#260 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arizona -115 over Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The Cubs pulled off a 4-2 win in Arizona yesterday despite picking up only 4 hits in the game. The DBacks won the first game of the series and have outhit the Cubs 20 to 9 in the first 2 games. Chicago is just 9 of 61 at the plate (.147 batting average) so far in this series while Arizona is 20 for 70 (.286 average). The Cubs have been struggling at the plate for a while now with a team BA of just .202 over their last 10 games averaging 2.9 RPG. They have a 3-7 record in those games. Arizona is 7-3 over their last 10 games hitting .249 and averaging 5 RPG. Today they face Chicago lefty Steele and the DBacks have been even better vs southpaws hitting .292 and averaging 5.5 RPG over their last 10. Steele has struggled this season with an ERA of 5.32 and he has not pitched more than 4 innings in any of his last 4 starts. He’s allowed 27 baserunners in his last 4 starts spanning just 12.2 innings. Arizona starter Castellanos has an ERA of 4.32, however he has had only 1 poor start this season. In 4 of his 5 starts he has allowed 3 ER’s or less. He’s allowed 0 ER’s in 2 of his 5 starts on the year. With the Cubs struggling at the plate and Arizona coming alive offensively and facing a struggling pitcher, we like the Diamondbacks to take the series finale today. |
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05-14-22 | Guardians -125 v. Twins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
MLB side pick "action" #923 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland -125 over Minnesota, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - Cleveland is coming off a 12-8 loss here last night and we expect them to bounce back with a win today with their ace on the mound. Last night the Twins were able to rough up Cleveland starter Civale which wasn’t a huge surprise as his ERA is now north of 9.00 and he has allowed at least 6 ER’s now in 3 of his last 4 starters. Today Minnesota will have a much tougher go of it facing former Cy Young award winner Shane Bieber. He is coming off his worst start of the year @ Toronto and that should give Bieber some extra motivation here. Prior to his most recent start, he had allowed a total of 8 earned runs in just over 28 innings this season. His ERA is just over 4.00, however most of that was due to his one poor outing a week ago when he gave up 7 ER’s in 3 innings. He should handle a Twins offense that before last night was faltering averaging just 2.7 RPG over their previous 10. Cleveland’s offense shouldn’t have a problem tonight. They have been one of the best in the Majors all season ranking in the top 4 in RPG, OPS, and batting average. They face Minnesota starter Smeltzer who was called up from the Minors to get the start today. He has pitched 69 total innings in the Majors in his career but has been pretty much a life long Minor leaguer. It’s not like he’s been a dominant Minor league pitcher with a career 17-21 record with a WHIP of 1.24 in 374 innings. The Guardians had won 6 of their previous 9 games entering yesterday and their offense has averaged 6 RPG over their last 10. Take Cleveland on Saturday. |
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05-12-22 | Reds v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - We’ve played many more UNDERS this year than OVERS and cashed in nicely on most of them. The UNDERS have cashed at over 56% so far this season (non extra inning games). That being said, the Reds are a full blown OVER team right now. They have the best OVER record in MLB by a long shot at 21-9-1. Their pitching staff is weak and their offense is clicking right now. After losing 20 of 21 games between April 12th and May 5th, the Reds have now won 4 of their last 6 and their offense is red hot averaging over 8 RPG in those 6 contests. Cincy is now 13-1-1 to the OVER in their last 15 games. Pittsburgh’s offense has also been playing much better as of late putting up just over 4 RPG over their last 10 hitting .250 as a team during that stretch. The Reds pitching staff is dead last in team ERA by a longshot at 6.61 while Pittsburgh has the 3rd worst ERA in MLB at 4.81. The scheduled starters are Brubaker for Pittsburgh and Overton for Cincinnati. Advantage to the hitters in this game as both teams just faced off vs these pitchers last week so they’ve seen them very recently. That match up went to Pittsburgh 9-2 so easily over the total. Cincy struggled a bit vs Overton which was to be expected as he was making his first start ever vs the Reds and just the 5th start of his career. The Reds should have a much better showing offensively in this game seeing him for the 2nd time in a week. Once we get to the bullpens we have 2 of the worst in the Majors (30th and 25th in bullpen ERA) so we don’t expect these offenses to slow down late in the game. We’re on the OVER in this one. |
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05-11-22 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Colorado vs San Francisco, Wednesday at 3:45 PM ET - The Rockies have their best pitcher going today with Chad Kuhl on the hill. He has allowed a grand total of 5 ER’s on the season in his 4 starts. He’s given up just 2 HR’s in 4 games with a 0.84 WHIP and opponents are hitting just .157 vs Kuhl. His 4 starts have averaged just 6.25 total RPG. He will be opposed by a pitcher we feel is drastically undervalued right now. The Giants send Cobb to the hill and his numbers are much higher than they should be. His overall ERA is 4.80, however his xERA (expected ERA) based on how he has pitched this season is just 1.24 and his xFIP is a very low .205 which is the 3rd lowest of all starting pitchers taking the hill today. Those numbers tell us he is pitching MUCH better than his ERA indicates. We’ve discussed the Rockies overall offensive numbers many times within our analysis on their games. Their overall offensive stats look very good. However, much of that success has come at home in the high altitude. On the road this team is hitting just .233 and averaging less than 3 RPG. Versus right handers on the road the Rockies are squeezing out only 2.05 RPG on the season. The Giants offense has been humming in the first 2 games of this series putting up 17 total runs, however they have faced two lower tier starters for Colorado. In their previous 6 games leading into this series, San Fran was averaging just 3.6 RPG and that INCLUDED a 13 run outburst vs the Cardinals Steven Matz who has an ERA north of 7.00. Two top notch starters keep this game low scoring this afternoon. |
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05-10-22 | Royals v. Rangers UNDER 8 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
#921/922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Kansas City vs Texas, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET - The top starters for each team on the hill today and with the total set at 8 we like the UNDER in this one. Keller is the starter for KC and he has 5 starts under his belt allowing just 6 ER’s all season. In his last 3 starts he’s pitched 13.1 innings and allowed 1 ER. His WHIP is an impressive 0.84 and opposing hitters have a batting average of just .168 vs Keller. Texas sends Perez to the mound and he’s a bit undervalued right now in our opinion. His first 2 starts of the season were a bit shaky but he’s pitched really well as of late. Over his last 3 starts, spanning 20 innings, Perez has allowed only 1 ER on only 8 total hits. Opposing batters are hitting barely over .200 vs the lefty. KC is averaging just 2.4 RPG vs left handers so with how well Perez has been pitching, we see him having great success here. Neither team is lighting it up offensively. Both rank near the bottom of MLB in both batting average and OPS. KC is putting up an average of just 3.1 RPG on the season and Texas is at 4.1 RPG. The Rangers have been a bit fortunate to get to that number as their overall offensive numbers (BA, OPS, HR’s) are not that of a team averaging 4.1 RPG. If we narrow it down to more recent results, over the las 10 games the Royals are averaging 2.73 RPG and the Rangers are at 3.13. These 2 starting pitchers have combined for 10 starts this year and only once has a game topped 8 runs. We don’t see either of these offenses having much success and we’ll grab the UNDER tonight. |
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05-09-22 | A's v. Tigers UNDER 7 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
#961/962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Oakland vs Detroit, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - Two of the worst and coldest offenses going at it head to head tonight in this one. Oakland ranks 25th in RPG, 29th in batting average, 30th in OPS, and 25th in HR’s. Detroit ranks 30th, 26th, 29th and 30th in those categories respectively. Both teams also strikeout a LOT with both whiffing almost 10 times per 9 innings. Both have been terrible vs right handed pitchers this season and especially as of late with Oakland averaging 1.83 RPG with a BA of .174 and Detroit averaging 2.02 RPG with a BA of .202 their last 10 games. The A’s are off a series in Minnesota where they scored 4 total runs in 3 games and they’ve been held to 3 runs or less in 12 of their last 14 games. Detroit is off a series in Houston where they scored 6 total runs in 4 games and they’ve scored 3 runs or less in 13 of their last 16 games. Blackburn takes the mound for Oakland and he’s been their best starter this year allowing just 6 ER’s in 24 innings with a WHIP of 0.95. He’s coming off his worst outing of the season, allowing 3 ER’s vs a red hot Tampa Bay offense, and we expect him to pitch very well today. Pineda has been solid for the Tigers with a 3.77 ERA on the season and he’s been consistently good for 3 seasons now with his highest ERA at 3.62 during that span. Both pitchers have great K to walk ratios and we mentioned both offenses struggle with strikeouts. These teams have combined record of 34-20-1 to the UNDER this year and with the wind blowing in from left tonight at 10 to 15 MPH, this sets up nicely for a low scoring game. We’re on the UNDER. |
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05-08-22 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
#905/906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - We’ve been cashing in quite regularly with Unders this season but we switch gears and take the Over in this one. The Reds are one of the few teams that has a solid Over record this season (17-9-1 to the Over) and they’ve gone Over the total in 10 of their last 11 games. Their last 11 games have averaged 13 total runs per game. Their pitching has been horrendous which is a big reason for their high scoring games. They are dead last in MLB in both starter’s ERA and bullpen ERA. Today the Reds send Tyler Mahle to the hill and after a solid first start of the season way back on April 7th, he has since allowed 20 ER’s in his last 21 innings spanning 5 starts. Pittsburgh’s starter Thompson has been worse. His ERA is almost 10.00 and his WHIP (walks + hits per inning) is one of the highest in the Majors for a starting pitcher at 2.22. We spoke of Cincinnati’s struggles in the bullpen but Pittsburgh’s relievers are great either ranking in the bottom third of MLB in ERA, hits allowed, and WHIP. The first 2 games of this series 11 and 13 runs with the teams combining for 36 hits and a whopping 54 total baserunners. More struggles for each pitching staff here and another Over is on the way. |
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05-07-22 | Brewers v. Braves UNDER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
#961/962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Milwaukee vs Atlanta, Saturday at 7:20 PM ET - Two of the top starting pitchers in baseball are facing off in this one. Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes is on the hill for Milwaukee and lefty Max Fried will start for Atlanta. In his last 4 starts Burnes has allowed a grand total of 4 ER’s in 28 innings with a whopping 39 K’s (~10 per game) and just 4 walks. Fried has allowed only 5 ER’s in his last 4 starts spanning 24 innings with 22 K’s and 0 walks. We look for very few walks today from these 2 so the opposing batters will have to earn their runs which will be tough. Both starters have the ability to go deep into games but when we do reach the bullpens both are among the best in MLB. Milwaukee has been scoring plenty of runs as of late, however their most recent games have been at home vs the Reds who have the worst ERA in MLB and yesterday vs Atlanta (Brewers scored 6 runs) the Braves went with a reliever who doesn’t start and he gave up 2 ER’s and lasted only 1 inning. Now Milwaukee faces a top of the line starter for the first time in well over a week. On top of that, the Brewers have struggled with left handed pitchers hitting just .218 and averaging a full 1.5+ RPG less than when facing a right hander. On the other side, Atlanta has hit just .220 vs right handers this year and they average a full 1 RPG less than when facing lefties. Both teams strikeout a lot (22nd and 28th in MLB) which will be a big problem vs these pitchers. We don’t foresee many baserunners today (Burnes WHIP is 0.73 & Fried is 0.87) so very few chances to push runners across the plate. Under is the play. |
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05-06-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Colorado vs Arizona, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - While the DBacks bats did come alive a bit over their last 4 or 5 games, they are still hitting a league low .188 (team batting average) and they are worse at home hitting only .158. The Rockies overall offensive numbers are very solid, however most of their damage has come at home in the high altitude. On the road Colorado is hitting just .230 and barely averaging 3 RPG. The edge goes to both starting pitchers in this game tonight. Arizona starter Kelly has been lights out allowing just 4 ER’s on the season in his 5 starts (29 innings pitched). He hasn’t allowed a single earned run in 3 of his 5 starts and he ranks 2nd in MLB with a 1.27 ERA. The total runs scored in 4 of his 5 starts this season has been 5 or less. Colorado will send Kuhl to the mound and he’s been the Rockies best starter this season. He’s allowed a total of 5 ER’s this year in his 4 starts spanning 24 innings. He has a 1.90 ERA on the season and opposing hitters have a batting average of just .160 vs Kuhl this season. Even at home in the high altitude Kuhl has proven a top notch pitcher allowing just 3 ER’s in 13 innings this season. This game is on the road but that previous stat speaks to how well he is pitching right now. We think both offenses struggle tonight and this one stays Under 8.5 Runs. |
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05-05-22 | Marlins +100 v. Padres | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
#957 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Miami +100 over San Diego, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - The Padres are not in an ideal situation here having played a doubleheader yesterday in Cleveland. After their 6-5 loss in game 2 @ Cleveland yesterday, San Diego made the long trek home and now must play a game just over 24 hours after their 2nd game of the DH ended yesterday. Not only that, it was the end of a long 8 game road trip for San Diego so they’ve been traveling a lot. Their bullpen could be rather thin tonight after using 8 different relief pitchers in yesterday’s 2 games. The Padres are on a very nice 11-4 run overall but let’s keep in mind over half of those wins (6) have come vs the Reds who are 3-21 on the season. The only team San Diego has beaten during this stretch that currently has a winning record was a 3-2 extra inning win vs the Dodgers, otherwise all 10 of their other wins have come vs teams with losing records. Miami is coming off a tough home series getting swept by suddenly red hot Arizona (7-2 last 9 games). All 3 of those losses for the Marlins came by a single run and prior to those losses they had won 7 of their previous 8 games. We spoke of San Diego’s tough travel spot and while Miami is also traveling, this will be their first road game since April 28th so they are in a much better situation. The Marlins have Luzardo on the hill who has been fantastic in 3 of his 4 starts this season. If we throw out his poor start vs St Louis back in mid April, Luzardo has allowed just 3 ER’s in 16 innings with a whopping 25 strikeouts in those 16 innings. His ERA on the season is a very good 3.10 but he’s pitched better than that with a xERA of 2.38 and an xFIP of just 2.69. San Diego’s starter tonight (Martinez) is the direct opposite with his numbers sitting much better than they should actually be. Martinez has an OK ERA of 4.12 but an xERA of 6.64 and an xFIP of 4.69. Miami also has an edge in most key bullpen categories. At basically even money, we like the Marlins here. |
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05-04-22 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
#907/908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10.5 Runs – Washington vs Colorado, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET - The Washington bats are red hot right now scoring 38 runs over their last 4 games – 3 vs San Francisco and 1 vs Colorado. That’s almost 10 RPG for the Nats over the last 4 games and they have a whopping 61 hits in those 4 games (15 hits per game average). They have been much better offensively on the road this year hitting .306 as a team and averaging 6.7 RPG. They are facing Rockies starter who has decent overall numbers, however 3 of his 4 starts have come on the road. In his only outing in Denver he allowed 12 baserunners in just 4 innings giving up 5 runs (4 earned). The Colorado offense is among the best in the league ranking 1st in batting average & OPS, 7th in RPG & HR’s. At home they are averaging 6 RPG and hitting .277 as a team. Those numbers spike up vs left handers as the Rockies hit .319 at home and average over 8 RPG. Tonight they face struggling south paw Patrick Corbin who not only has an ERA north of 8.00 this season but he’s also had problems with control walking almost 6 per 9 innings. Once we get past the 2 starting pitchers, it really doesn’t get any better. Colorado ranks dead last in bullpen ERA and WHIP. The Washington relievers ranks 24th and 26th in those 2 categories. The Nationals are 9-1-1 to the OVER in road games this season and these 2 have gone OVER the total in 11 of the last 15 meetings in Colorado. We look for a high scoring game in Denver this evening. |
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05-03-22 | Reds v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON Milwaukee -1.5 Runs over Cincinnati, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - Rather than lay in the -230 range with the Brewers here, we can lay 1.5 runs at a solid value of +100. The Brewers offense has been back and forth for much of the season but they’ve been pretty consistent at home averaging almost 5 RPG. In their 7 home wins this season they’ve averaged 6 RPG. We expect the Milwaukee offense to play well here vs Cincy starter Mahle who has allowed 16 ER’s in his last 17.1 innings spanning 4 starts – all losses for the Reds. If Mahle continues to struggle, there is literally no relief for Cincinnati. The Reds bullpen owns the 3rd highest ERA, 3rd highest WHIP and has walked the 2nd most batters in the Majors. Cincy has allowed at least 4 runs in 16 of their last 18 games and that will most likely be enough for Milwaukee to cover -1.5 here. That’s because the Brewers send ace Woodruff to the mound and he is coming off a poor start so we look for a bounce back. He’s also been outstanding at home not allowing a single earned run in 2 starts this season. He is backed by a solid bullpen and the Brewers pitching staff as a whole is rolling right now allowing 2 runs or less in 5 straight games. That’s not great for a Cincinnati team that ranks 30th (last) in OPS, 29th in batting average, 28th in RPG and strikes out a lot. The Reds have won a grand total of ONE of their last 18 games and all but one of those losses have come by at least 2 runs. We like Milwaukee to win this game by 2 runs or more. |
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05-02-22 | Angels v. White Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
#905/906 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8 Runs – LA Angels vs Chicago White Sox, Monday at 2:10 PM ET - The Sox offense continues to struggle topping 4 runs just TWICE in their last 16 games. That’s even a bit deceiving as one of those times they topped 4 runs was in yesterday’s 6-5 loss to the Angels. All 5 of those runs for Chicago came in the 9th inning! They had 12 hits on the day but half of those (6) came in the final inning as well. It’s not like the WS offense broke out and had a great game. They still rank 27th offensively in RPG, batting average, and OPS. Monday afternoon they face Angel left hander Sandoval who has pitched 15 innings this season and has not allowed an earned run. Dylan Cease is on the hill for the White Sox and while is numbers are very good, he’s actually pitched better than those numbers indicate. His ERA is a solid 3.27 in 22 innings pitched but his xERA (expected ERA) is actually 1.75! He’s also faced the Angels only once since the end of the 2019 season and that was over a year ago on April 4, 2021 giving him an edge on the LAA hitters here in our opinion. LAA pitcher Sandoval is in a similar situation having faced just 14 career plate appearances from the entire White Sox team giving him an edge as well. We mentioned the late scoring push from Chicago yesterday but the Angels did the same. Of the 11 runs scored yesterday, 7 came in the 9th inning. We expect the starters to hand a low scoring game over to the bullpens and the relievers to perform much better on Monday. Under the total is our play. |
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05-01-22 | Astros v. Blue Jays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show |
#967/968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Houston vs Toronto, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - Toronto ace Gausman is on the hill and he has been fantastic this season. He’s allowed just 6 ER’s in 24.2 innings with 31 strikeouts and not a single walk. His fastball hits 96 MPH and his splitter is nearly impossible to hit. Opposing batters have a chase rate (swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone) of 73% on his splitter and 53% on all pitches, both tops in MLB. He’s facing a Houston line up that has averaged just 3.8 RPG this season (21st) and the hitters Gausman has faced on the Astros have a batting average of just .196 vs him. Blue Jay games have totaled 7 runs or less in 3 of Gausman’s 4 starts this season. Offensively, Toronto has scored 2 or fewer runs in 3 of their last 4 games. They will face Houston lefty Framber Valdez today who has been very good in 3 of his 4 starts. His one poor outing vs the LAA, Valdez allowed 6 ER in just 4 innings. In his other 3 starts, he has allowed 1 ER total in 15.2 innings. He has been a consistent pitcher for 2+ seasons now with an ERA of 3.57 in 2020 and 3.14 in 2021. The ump behind the plate today, Nestor Ceja, has called 3 games this year and the average total runs scored in those games is just 5.6. These 2 teams have combined to play 43 games this season with only 15 going Over the total. We expect another low scoring game here and UNDER is our play. |
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04-30-22 | Yankees -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
#923 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line over Kansas City, Saturday at 8 PM ET - In case you haven’t noticed, the Yankees are tearing the cover off the ball as of late. They have scored at least 10 runs in 4 of their last 5 games including last night’s 12-2 win over KC. They have won 9 of their last 10 games and 8 of those wins have come by at least 2 runs. They rank #1 in MLB in HR’s per 9 innings at 1.44 and they are in the top 7 in batting average, RPG, and OPS. Tonight they face Hernandez who is on the mound for the Royals. He has allowed 10 ER’s this season in just 14 innings and his strikeout to walk ratio is bad at 1 to 1. His WHIP (walks + hits per inning) is the 2nd highest on the board of starting pitchers today at 1.79. We don’t expect the Yankees offense to slow down today. On the other side, NY will send Gerrit Cole to the mound who has a solid ERA of 4.00 but he’s actually pitched better than that this season with an xERA (expected ERA) of 3.74 and an xFIP of 3.50. He is facing a KC lineup that ranks 26th in scoring, 27th in team batting average, 27th in OPS, and 25th in HR’s per 9 innings. The Royals started the season winning 5 of their first 10 games but have since gone 2-6 their last 8 and they have been outscored 44 to 27 in those 8 games. We are getting the better starting pitcher, the much better offense, and we’ll lay -1.5 runs (-110) in this one. |
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04-29-22 | Angels v. White Sox UNDER 7 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
Pitchers with Action: #969/970 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – LA Angels vs Chicago White Sox, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The White Sox have been struggling at the plate to say the least. They rank 24th or lower in RPG, team batting average, and OPS. The Sox have been held to 3 runs or less in 11 of their last 13 games and they have a team batting average of just .186 over their last 10 games. In their last 4 series (all 3 game series) they have scored a grand total of 9, 7, 5, and 9 runs. Those are their offensive outputs for the entire series, not just one game! It won’t get any easier for them tonight facing the Angels starter Syndergaard who has allowed just 4 ER’s in his 3 starts spanning 17 innings. Syndergaard is also a great ground ball pitcher with 58% balls in play staying on the ground which leads to fewer runs. The Angels have much better offensive numbers but they will be facing Chicago’s ace tonight with Giolito on the mound. He has allowed just 1 ER in his 2 starts this season for an ERA of just over 1.00 with a whopping 16 strikeouts in just 8 innings. Giolito has been one of the most consistent starting pitchers in the Majors with an ERA of 3.53 or lower each of the last 3 seasons. Each of these pitchers have had success vs the current lineups for the opposing team with Giolito limiting current Angels to batting average of .195 lifetime and Syndergaard holding current White Sox hitters to a lifetime average of .209. Wind is blowing in from center tonight at 10 to 15 MPH and we expect a low scoring game in this one. |
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04-28-22 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8 Runs – Houston vs Texas, Thursday at 2:00 PM ET - Houston sends their ace Justin Verlander to the mound in the series finale. He has allowed just 4 ER’s in 3 starts this season with a miniscule WHIP of 0.74. Lefty Perez is on the hill for Texas and the Astros have really struggled vs southpaws this year with a team batting average of just .189. Houston has averaged just 3.1 RPG this season per 9 innings vs lefties and Perez has some big momentum coming off his best outing of the year holding Oakland scoreless with just 2 hits in 6 innings. Perez has a solid ERA of 3.86 on the season but he’s pitched better than that with an xERA (expected ERA) of 2.86. The Houston offense has struggled all season ranking 20th or lower in RPG, batting average, and OPS. While Texas has averaged 4.7 RPG on the season (7th in MLB) they’ve been a bit lucky as their batting average (19th in MLB) and OPS (21st) don’t align with that number. Much of their success was early with the Rangers averaging 6 RPG through their first 7 games and they’ve dropped to just 3.4 RPG over their last 10. When we get to the relievers Houston has the 8th best bullpen ERA in the Majors and their pen has allowed only 4 HR’s on the season. The Texas bullpen numbers are not good but they were terrible early in the season and they’ve rebounded to pitch very well as of late. Over the last 10 games the Texas bullpen ERA is 3.07 and they’ve allowed opponents to hit just .186. We’re on the UNDER in this one. |
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04-27-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
#953/954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – LA Dodgers vs Arizona, Wednesday at 3:40 PM ET - Arizona has the worst offense in the Majors. They are dead last averaging 3 RPG, .182 team batting average, and .588 team OPS. The DBacks have scored 3 runs or less in 11 of their 18 games this season and they’ve already been shutout 4 times. They are facing Dodger lefty Urias who has allowed 1 ER in his last 10 innings and has faced the current Arizona line up in 93 total plate appearances and held those batters to a batting average of just .193. On top of that, as bad as Arizona has been offensively, their lowest numbers of the season have come vs left handed pitchers with a batting average of .162 and an average of only 2 runs per 9 innings. It looks like the DBacks may have some momentum after scoring 5 runs yesterday vs these Dodgers but they did so on only 4 hits. In the first 2 games of this series Arizona has total of 7 hits. The LA offense has been great in the first 2 games of this series scoring a total of 7 runs. They now face Arizona’s most consistent starter this season, Zac Gallen, who has allowed just 1 ER in his 2 starts this season. Both of those starts came vs a potent Mets line up that ranks 4th in the Majors in batting average. These 2 teams have combined to play 35 games this season and only 9 have gone Over the total. We look for another low scoring game this afternoon. |
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04-26-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
#920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto -1.5 Runs +110 over Boston, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Boston’s Nick Pivetta is on the mound in this game and he has been downright terrible this year. He faced the Blue Jays at Fenway Park last week and lost that game 6-1 allowing 11 baserunners in just 4 innings (allowed 5 ER’s). For the season Pivetta’s ERA is 10.80 but he’s actually pitched worse than that as his xERA (expected ERA) is over 15.00! He is walking an average of 7 per 9 innings and allowing a whopping 3.09 HR’s per 9 innings. That’s a problem here vs a Toronto team that leads the Majors with 22 HR’s on the season. Opponents have averaged 6 RPG this year in games started by Pivetta. That’ll be a problem here as Boston is facing a pitcher who is allowing next to nothing this season. When facing the Sox last week, tonight’s starter Kevin Gausman, gave up just 1 ER and 8 strikeouts in 8 innings on the mound. He is averaging 10.6 strikeouts per 9 innings and hasn’t walked a single batter this season. Gausman’s ERA is just 2.89 on the season but he’s actually been a bit unlucky so to speak with a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) allowed of .416 (defense & luck have a lot to do with a high BABIP against). He’s facing a Boston offense that has been struggling to say the least. The Red Sox have scored 2 runs or less in 6 of their last 7 games. The Jays have played 7 homes games this year and averaged 5.6 RPG in those contests. Laying the 1.5 runs with Toronto and getting plus money in that instance (+110) is a solid value in our opinion. |
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04-25-22 | Guardians +109 v. Angels | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
PITCHERS "ACTION": #963 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland +110 over LA Angels, Monday at 9:35 PM ET - Shane Bieber gets the start for Cleveland and we like the value here. We were on Bieber in his most recent start, an 11-1 win over the White Sox, and we’re getting Cleveland’s top starter basically at even money. On the season Bieber has started 3 games, allowed just 4 ER’s, has 16 strikeouts to just 3 walks, and has a WHIP of 0.69. We also like the fact the Guardians ace has not faced the Angels in either of the last 2 seasons. Cleveland was just swept @ NYY over the weekend, yet even with that they still own the 3rd best run differential in the American League. Their offense ranks in the top 4 in MLB in RPG, batting average, and on base percentage. They will be facing Lorenzen, a career relief pitcher, on the hill for the Angels. Since the start of the 2019 season, Lorenzen has pitched in 100 games and started just 4 of those games. That includes 2 this season and he has allowed 5 ER’s allowed in 6.1 innings. His numbers haven’t been great the last 2 seasons with an ERA of 5.59 and 4.28 as a relief pitcher. Because he’s not used to long outings, never threw more than 30 pitches last season, we expect Lorenzen to struggle as a starter. He’s backed up by a bullpen that ranks 26th in ERA and has allowed 11 HR’s on the season, the 2nd most in MLB. While Cleveland was struggling with the Yankees over the weekend, the Angels were nearly swept at home vs the downtrodden Orioles. Their lone win was by a single run in a game where the O’s had 3 more hits than LA. We’ll take a top of the line starter at small dog money in this one. |
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04-24-22 | Rangers v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
#925/926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – Texas @ Oakland, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - These 2 played a low scoring 2-0 game yesterday which sets us up nicely with a lower than anticipated total on Sunday afternoon. Despite not being able to put many runs on the board yesterday, these 2 teams are still highly capable with Texas averaging 5.2 RPG (4th in the Majors) and Oakland averaging 4.3 RPG (13th). Both starting pitchers have had their troubles this season and neither bullpen is very good. Cole Irvin starts for Oakland and he has allowed 8 ER’s this season and is giving up over 2 HR’s per 9 innings. His ERA of 4.32 looks acceptable but his xERA (expected ERA) based on how he’s actually pitched this year is over 7.00. Irvin is a lefty and the Rangers have hit southpaws very well this season with a .278 team BA compared to just .210 vs right handers. Texas will send reliever Garrett Richards to the mound to make his first start of the season. He’s appeared in 4 games this season out of the pen and been terrible, walking an average of 9 per 9 innings and allowing over 2 HR’s per 9 innings. Similar to Irvin, his ERA looks OK at 4.50, however his xERA is actually almost 8.00. Both of these pitchers have been quite lucky this season and we think this total is too low. On top of that, once we get to the bullpens Texas relievers have been poor with the 3rd highest ERA in the league while allowing the most HR’s. Oakland’s bullpen has a much better ERA, however they’ve allowed a bunch of baserunners with a WHIP of 1.40 which is 2nd highest in MLB, so they’ve been a bit fortunate. With this low total we like the OVER. |
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04-23-22 | Rangers v. A's -125 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -125 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
#970 ASA TOP PLAY ON Oakland -125 over Texas, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Texas is coming off an 8-1 win here last night. We like Oakland to bounce back today with Montas on the hill. Since he struggled in his opening start @ Philly he has been outstanding his last 2 starts allowing just 2 earned runs in 12.1 innings with 11 strikeouts and just 2 walks. Since the start of last season Montas has a whopping 224 strikeouts in just 204 innings. Today he faces a Texas line up that has hit just .215 vs right handers this season. The A’s will be facing Ranger’s left hander Perez who has been poor this season. Perez has allowed an average of 2 baserunners per inning in his 2 starts this season, both Texas losses. In his 2 starts the Rangers have lost by a combined 8 runs to the Rockies and Angels. He will be backed up by one of the worst bullpens in the Majors with Texas relievers logging the 2nd worst ERA in MLB and allowing 12 HR’s already this season, worst in the league. We like the surprising A’s, who have the 3rd best run differential in the American League, to get this win at home. |
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04-22-22 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
Pitchers with action NOT listed: #913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – LA Dodgers vs San Diego, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - The Padres offense went through a rough stretch from April 12 through April 17 where they scored 2 runs or less in 5 of 6 games. Despite that they are still 12th in MLB scoring 4.46 RPG. After that 6 game run, they have since scored 16 runs in their last 3 games. The Dodgers offense never hit that lull this season. They are 2nd in MLB scoring 5.43 RPG and they’ve put up at least 5 runs in 7 of their last 9 games. They have dangerous bats up and down their line up and should have a field day vs San Diego starter Martinez who has struggled with walks throughout his career along with giving up the long ball (1.5 HR’s allowed per 9 in his career and 2.7 this season). In his 2 starts this year Martinez has allowed 17 baserunners in 10 innings and giving up 3 long balls. LA starter Urias has a decent ERA of 3.86 through 2 starts but his xFIP is really high at 5.03 and his WHIP is 1.20 which tells us he is not pitching as well as some might think. His xERA (expected ERA) based on his performances this year is actually above 4.50. Urias is a lefty and the Padres have hit much better vs southpaws this season when compared to right handers. With 14 games being played today, that means 28 starting pitchers. In this game we have 2 of the top 7 hurlers (out of 28) with the highest xFIP this season which means both offenses should be successful. We like OVER in this one. |
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04-21-22 | Orioles v. A's -118 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oakland -118 over Baltimore, Thursday at 3:37 PM ET - This will be the fourth game of this series with the A’s taking 2 of the first 3. Baltimore’s lone victory in this series was yesterday’s 1-0 win and the O’s only run was unearned. The Orioles have scored a grand total of 3 runs in this series, 1 in each game. That’s actually not out of character for this offense that has scored a grand total of 24 runs in 12 games this year for an average of 2 RPG, last in the league. They’ve actually scored 2 or fewer runs in 75% of their games so far this season (9 of their 12 games). It’s amazing they’ve actually won 4 of their 12 games on the season. The A’s had an off night at the plate yesterday, although they did out hit the O’s in the loss. Despite putting up a zero yesterday, the A’s have scored 60 runs this season which is good for 7th most in MLB. We expect them to bounce back in the series finale on Friday facing Baltimore pitcher, Tyler Wells, who has a WHIP of 1.76 this season and struggled with walks allowing an average of almost 6.5 per 9 innings. He has allowed 10 baserunners in just 5.2 innings this season, his first year as a starter after working out of the bullpen last season. While we expect Oakland to have success offensively, this one should be another struggle for the Orioles offense. They face Paul Blackburn who has allowed 2 ER’s this year in 10 innings of work with an outstanding xFIP of 1.89. Unlike Wells, the Oakland starter has not struggled with his control with a strikeout to walk ratio of 9 to 1. When they do go to the bullpen the A’s relievers have been solid with an ERA of 2.89 on the year. Oakland won’t need to do much offensively to pick up this win and we’ll side with the host in the series finale. |
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04-20-22 | White Sox v. Guardians -130 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
Pitchers with action NOT listed: #932 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians -135 over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 2:10 PM ET (Game 1 of Double Header) - Cleveland should be hungry for a win here after just getting swept at home by the red hot Giants (won 6 of their last 7 games). The Indians are undervalued right now with just a 4-5 record, yet they have the highest run differential in the American League at +11. They send Shane Bieber to the mound who has pitched 10 innings this year allowing just 4 hits and 3 ER with a WHIP of 0.70. Bieber’s ERA has been below 3.30 in 3 straight seasons with Cleveland and we rate him as their top starting pitcher. The White Sox, despite their 6-3 record, are hitting just .197 vs right handers this season and they’ve scored 3 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 6 games. Cleveland’s offense has been one of the best in the Majors ranking in the top 4 in runs scored, batting average, and OPS. The Guardians will face Dallas Keuchel who has been trending in the wrong direction since the start of last season. A year ago Keuchel had an ERA of 5.28 and allowed 248 base runners in just 162 innings pitched. He allowed 3 ER’s in 5 innings in his first start this season vs Seattle and struggled big time in spring training with the 4th highest ERA among starters. He faced Cleveland 3 times last season allowing 12 earned runs in just 16 innings of work. We like Cleveland in Game 1 of 2 at home on Wednesday |
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04-19-22 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
#975/976 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Over 7.5 Runs – Texas vs Seattle, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - If you can get a low total like this on a Texas game early in the season, it’s work a look to the Over. We feel the Rangers will be an Over team this year, especially early on before the oddmakers catch up with them. Their offense has been very solid and their pitching not so much. The Rangers are 3rd in MLB averaging 5.5 RPG and 30th in runs allowed at 6.6. So games involving Texas this year are averaging a whopping 12.1 RPG. They’ve had only 1 game this season fall under 7 total runs. Starting pitcher Gray made 1 start this year on April 8th and allowed 3 ER in 4 innings but hasn’t pitched since due to a blister on this throwing hand. His FIP (fielding independent pitching) vs players in the Seattle line up he’s faced in his career is a terrible 6.20. The Seattle offense struggled out of the gate not topping 4 runs in any of their first 6 games but they are starting to come around plating 5 or more in 3 of their last 4 (averaging 6 RPG over their last 4). Robbie Ray starts for Seattle. He is coming off a Cy Young season with Toronto but we feel that he is vastly overvalued, thus the low total here. His career ERA is north of 4.00 and prior to last season his FIP was never lower than 4.30 (in previous 5 seasons) and 4.20 is average. His WHIP (walks + hits per inning pitched) was north of 1.30 in each of his first 8 seasons. In his 2 starts this year he has allowed 16 base runners in 13 innings and 7 ER’s. Ray is a lefty and Texas is hitting over .300 as a team vs south paws this year. This total is set too low and we’ll grab the Over. |
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11-02-21 | Braves +117 v. Astros | Top | 7-0 | Win | 117 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves +115 over Houston Astros, Tuesday at 8:09 PM ET – We are not overly concerned with the pitchers here as we like the fact that Atlanta is 7-0 L7 when coming off a loss and, after getting blown out at home in Game 5, we look for them to respond in Game 6 on the road. The pitching match-up - again, we'll take action on pitchers - is expected to be Garcia for Houston versus Fried for the Braves. Garcia has had only one strong start out of his four starts in this post-season. Fried is off a sub-par outing but has been very strong overall this year for the Braves and they are a solid 20-12 in his starts this season. The lefty also has solid post-season experience having made 4 starts in last year's playoffs and again 4 starts so far in this post-season. Atlanta once again responds big off a loss and gets it done here to capture the title. No matter who the starting pitchers are here, we will grab the road team at a nice comeback price (small underdog) on the money line in this one and bet Atlanta Braves +115 |
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10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves -105 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -105 over Houston Astros, Friday at 8:09 PM ET – The Braves have been very strong at home in this post-season. Not only is Atlanta a perfect 5-0 in the post-season this year when at home, they also have been red hot as a host dating back to the regular season. The Braves are 10-1 in last 11 home games since a loss to Colorado in mid-September. We are not overly concerned with the pitchers here as we also like the fact that Atlanta is 6-0 when coming off a loss and, after getting blown out on the road in Game 2, we look for them to respond in Game 3 at home where they have been so strong. The pitching match-up - again, we'll take action on pitchers - is expected to be Garcia for Houston versus Anderson for the Braves. Garcia is off a strong start but struggled badly in the two starts prior to that. Also, in the regular season Garcia was much better at home than on the road and, of course, this is a road outing for him. Anderson has been very strong in the post-season and the Braves have gone 12-2 in his home starts and he continues to pitch like much more of a veteran than his young age of 23 would suggest as an experience level. Atlanta once again responds big off a loss and gets it done here. No matter who the starting pitchers are here, we will grab the home team at a very fair price (very small favorite) on the money line in this one and bet Atlanta Braves -105 |
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10-26-21 | Braves v. Astros -129 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -129 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -135 over Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 8:09 PM ET – The Astros have been very strong at home. Houston finished 21 games over .500 in home games in the regular season and are 4-1 in home games thus far in the post-season. Note that the Braves have lost 3 of 5 road games in this post-season and just playing the home team in all Atlanta games in these playoffs would have netted you an 8-2 betting record to date. Framber Valdez is off a fantastic outing versus the Red Sox last week and holds an edge here in that he has always pitched in the NL and the Braves just don't have hitters with a lot of experience against him. Charlie Morton, on the other hand, is a former Astro who also was with the Rays in recent seasons. While in the starting rotation for TB he did end up facing his former team a few times. The last start he made at Houston was a disaster as he was charged with 6 earned runs in just 4 innings. Morton is a solid veteran pitcher but coming off B2B shaky post-season outings too. He walked 6 in 5 innings in most recent start against Dodgers and allowed 6 baserunners (4 hits, 1 walk, 1 hit batter) in just 3 and 1 / 3 innings in the start that preceded that when he faced the Brewers. No matter who the starting pitchers are here, we are riding the more experienced post-season team in Game 1 and we will grab the home team at a very fair price (rather small favorite) on the money line in this one and bet Houston Astros -135 |
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10-21-21 | Braves +130 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves +130 over Los Angeles Dodgers, Thursday at 8:08 PM ET – The Dodgers have not announced a starting pitcher yet but consider that this team has now gone cold at the plate and the Braves hold the edge and can close this series out with one more game of hot hitting. Los Angeles is expected to go with a true bullpen game here as no LA pitcher is really available for extended work and the Dodgers arms have not been nearly as strong in this series as they were in the prior series versus the Giants. The Braves have scored an average of 6.3 runs per game the last 3 games and we are going to take the hotter lineup and the team that has had the better bullpen in this series too and we are siding with the visitors in this one. Atlanta is expected to start Max Fried in this one and the southpaw has had a huge season and he went a combined 7-0 in August / September with a 1.46 ERA and has a 1.50 ERA in his two starts in this post-season as well. Even if Fried was not the starter and no matter who the Dodgers start here, we are riding the hot team in a potential close-out game and we will grab the road team at a nice come back underdog price on the money line in this one and bet Atlanta Braves +130 |
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10-19-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox, Tuesday at 8:08 PM ET – Each of Boston's last 6 games have totaled at least 9 runs and the games have averaged a total of 13.2 runs. The Red Sox just hammered the Astros 9-5 at Houston in Game 2 on Saturday and now, after a huge 12-3 win in Game 3 yesterday at home, they have won 9 of 12 games at Fenway Park. In those 12 games played in Boston, the Red Sox have averaged scoring 6.8 runs per game. The Red Sox should hammer Zack Greinke here. The right-hander has not started since September 19th and also was not overly dominant in his two relief appearances since then. Look for Greinke to be a bit off after the long time between starts and plus he got hammered by Boston when he most recently started against them. The Astros lineup should have a big game as well. Houston has averaged scoring 6.5 runs per game in the month of October and yesterday was the first time they had been held below 5 runs in any of their games this month! The Astros should do some damage against Nick Pivetta as the right-hander was better in day games and road games in the regular season! This is a night game and a home game and Pivetta had a 4.85 ERA in night games and a 5.40 ERA in home games in the regular season. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one easily getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox, Monday at 8:08 PM ET – Each of Boston's last 5 games have totaled at least 9 runs and the games have averaged a total of 12.8 runs. The Red Sox just hammered the Astros 9-5 at Houston in Game 2 on Saturday and now are back home where they have won 8 of 11 games. In those 11 games at Fenway Park, Boston has averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game. The Red Sox should hammer Jose Urquidy here. The right-hander has not pitched since October 3rd and allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts of the regular season. Look for Urquidy to be a bit off after the long time between starts and also to continue to prove susceptible to giving up the long ball. The Astros lineup should have a big game as well. Houston has averaged scoring 6.8 runs per game in the month of October and has not been held below 5 runs in any of their games this month! The Astros will take advantage of facing Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez as he has a 5.95 ERA in home starts this season! This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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10-16-21 | Dodgers -127 v. Braves | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -127 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. #905 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -125 over Atlanta Braves, Saturday at 8:08 PM ET – The Dodgers have not announced a starting pitcher yet but consider that this team, no matter who has been on the mound, has won 11 of 13 games and has allowed 3 or less runs in 10 of 13 games. Los Angeles could start Max Scherzer here as, even though he came in to pitch the 9th inning in the Game 5 victory over the Giants, he threw only 13 pitches. The point about the Dodgers pitching is that even if they go with a bullpen game here this team continues to dominate with pitching no matter who is on the mound. LA has won those 11 of 13 games also, thanks in part, to a red hot lineup. The Dodgers have scored an average of 7.3 runs in their last 9 victories! The Braves have scored an average of 3.7 runs per game last 7 games and we are going to take the better lineup and the better bullpen and the more experienced post-season team to get the win here in Game 1. Whether or not the Dodgers start Scherzer and whether or not the Braves start Max Fried, we are siding with Los Angeles in this one for the reasons outlined above. We will grab the road team at a very fair price on the money line in this one and bet Los Angeles Dodgers -125 |
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10-14-21 | Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
#971/972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 9:07 PM ET – NOTE: Corey Knebel now starting for LA but only as an opener. Urias will get the bulk of the work per all reports we have seen. We like action with this play no matter which pitcher starts. The Dodgers pitching has been fantastic as they have allowed only 2.3 runs per game in the last 7 games. The Giants are certainly in line for strong pitching in this one as well with Logan Webb going 7-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his 13 home starts this season. 10 of those 13 starts resulted in an under! The Dodgers Julio Urias is 14-2 with a 2.67 ERA in his road starts this season! Urias enters this start in top form with a 1.10 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Giants Webb has a 1.83 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. Also, against the Dodgers, Webb has allowed a total of only 3 earned runs in last 3 starts facing them. Urias, against the Giants, has also allowed a total of only 3 earned runs in his last 3 starts facing them. Both these guys started earlier in the series and were great. With playoff pressure at its highest in this winner-takes-all Game 5, look for both lineups to struggle at the plate. Before the Dodgers big Game 4 win, they had been held to 3 or less runs in 3 of 4 games. The Giants have averaged only 2.2 runs in this series thus far! Look for both the righty Webb and the lefty Urias to come up big here and the bullpens are in good shape too considering the off day yesterday. That being said, after Tuesday's game reached the over because of the Dodgers having a huge game at the plate, look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 4 to 5 runs and even if it reaches 6 that is still a winning ticket based on the 7 that is posted at most books as of mid-day Thursday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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10-12-21 | Brewers v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
#961/962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers, Tuesday at 5:15 PM ET – Charlie Morton starts for the Braves here and he was fantastic in Game 1 of this series. He took the loss in the 2-1 Brewers win but Morton allowed just 3 hits and struck out 9 in 6 innings! Morton is now 5-2 with a 2.25 ERA in the last 3 post-seasons combined! Milwaukee starts Eric Lauer in this one. Lauer had a rough final start of the season but this was after he went 3-0 with a 1.15 ERA in his 5 starts in September. He can hold the Braves in check here as Atlanta has scored only 2.3 runs per game in this series and the under has cashed in 6 of last 7 Atlanta games. As for the Brewers sticks, they have now been shutout in back to back games plus only scored 2 runs in their game 1 win. Dating back to the regular season, Milwaukee has averaged only 2.6 runs per game last 9 games. That being said, and considering that all 3 games in this series have totaled just 3 runs, look for this one to be yet another tight game throughout with runs again coming at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8 that is posted at most books as of mid-day Tuesday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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10-11-21 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants, Monday at 9:37 PM ET – The Dodgers Max Scherzer went 15-4 with a 2.45 ERA in the regular season. Though he had a couple of tough late season starts one of those was at Coors Field. The O/U went 11-20 in his starts this season and he is they type of elite hurler that is capable of completely dominating an opponent every time he steps on the mound. Look for him to come up with one of those dominating starts here. Scherzer was dominant for the Nationals in the 2019 post-season. He is one of those guys you want on the mound in a situation like this one! As for the Giants, they have a pitcher in top form on the mound for this one! Alex Wood is a former Dodgers pitcher so he has plenty of post-season experience. He also enters this start off a September in which he made 3 starts and compiled a 1.38 ERA and San Francisco won all 3 games and all 3 were unders! We expect another strong performance from Wood here and yet another under being recorded as well! In 6 career starts against the Dodgers, Wood has a 3.34 ERA and the O/U is 1-4 with a push. The O/U is 0-4 in the Giants last 4 games against a right-handed starter. Look for both the righty Scherzer and the lefty Wood to come up big here and the bullpens are in good shape too considering the off day yesterday. That being said, after Saturday's game reached double digits because of the Dodgers having a huge game at the plate, look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket based on the 7.5 that is posted at most books as of mid-day Monday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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10-10-21 | Rays v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
#931/932 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays, Sunday at 4:07 PM ET – After the wild 14-6 Red Sox win on Friday, look for things to return to typical playoff baseball in this one. Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen has a 1.93 ERA in his 10 starts this season and 7 of them stayed under the total. Rasmussen has a 1.20 ERA in his last 3 starts. Nathan Eovaldi starts for Boston and he has given up only 1 earned run in 11 and 1 / 3 innings in his last two starts. Also, in Eovaldi's last two home starts versus the Rays he has allowed just 1 earned run on only 6 hits while striking out 18 in 14 innings! Both teams have been trending heavily to the under in recent weeks and have not had back to back overs in over two weeks. That being said, after Friday's slugfest, look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of early morning Sunday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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10-08-21 | Dodgers -110 v. Giants | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. #921 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -115 over San Francisco Giants, Friday at 9:37 PM ET – The Giants have been hot but the Dodgers are even hotter. Riding the momentum of Wednesday's dramatic walk-off win in the Wild Card game, Los Angeles now is on an 8-game winning streak and flying high with confidence. The Giants have also been red hot of course and did win the NL West Division but the playoff experience of this Dodgers team is also an added edge especially in Game 1 of a series. The Giants are starting Logan Webb and he has had a fantastic season, particularly at home, but allowed 4 earned runs in his final start of the season and it was at home too. Webb does have solid long-term numbers versus the Dodgers but is only 1-2 in his decisions against them. Walker Buehler is a fantastic 7-1 in his career decisions against the Giants and, best of all, that lone loss was in his most recent start against them. Buehler had dominated the Giants, including this season, until things fell apart when he last faced them early last month. That will have Buehler especially locked in for this revenge rematch and he should resume the long-term dominance at San Francisco. In his final two starts of the regular season Buehler allowed just 1 earned run on only 6 hits in 12 innings while striking out 16. The Dodgers have won 14 of 19 post-season games the past two seasons combined. The Giants have not even been in the post-season since 2016. Based on recent current form we have the slight starting pitching edge here but even taking the starting pitching out of the equation, the team edge plus overall situational edge both (especially with post-season experience) are with the red hot road team in this one. We will grab the road team at a very fair small favorite price on the money line in this one and bet Los Angeles Dodgers -115 |
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10-06-21 | Cardinals v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
#939/940 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – St Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET – At first glance and considering Scherzer is on the mound for the Dodgers and this is playoff baseball, one might be leery of playing an over. However, Scherzer was hit hard in each of his last two starts this season. He got rocked for 5 earned runs each time and both games, as you would expect, went over their respective totals. Though he had success against the Cardinals this season, this St Louis team was so hot to close out the season, including at the plate, that it is just hard to doubt the St Louis hitters no matter who they are facing. They also showed strong late season trending to the over in road games. Speaking of strong trending to overs, the Dodgers final 5 games - all at home by the way - all resulted in overs. Not only that, LA scored an average of 9 runs per game in those five games. Wainwright starts for the Cardinals here and allowed 3 homers over 11 innings in his final two starts of the regular season. This included getting roughed up at Milwaukee for 5 earned runs in 4 innings in his final road start of the season. This total is in the 7.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting very close, if not into, double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying some success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 4 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 9 runs (5-4 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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10-05-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
#937/938 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 8 Runs – Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees, Tuesday at 8:08 PM ET – Playoff time and this wild card match-up is a rivalry game and it will be a chilly evening at Fenway Park with a light northerly breeze adding to the cool conditions. Considering these factors as well as this pitching match-up, we should see a very tight low-scoring pitchers duel in this one. Both bullpens in good shape heading into this one too. As for the starters, Gerrit Cole gets the start for the Yankees and he has a respectable 3.71 ERA in last 3 starts versus Boston. Cole went 10-4 with a 3.32 ERA in his road starts in the regular season. His last two starts went over the total on the road but the O/U was 4-10 in his first 14 outings away from Yankee Stadium this season. Nathan Eovaldi starts for Boston here and, before a rare bad outing versus the Yankees in his final home start of the regular season, he had been particularly strong at Fenway Park this season with a 6-3 record and a 2.91 ERA. Eovaldi entered that rare rough outing with a 2.12 ERA in his 3 starts prior. The under had been perfect 3-0 in his last 3 starts against the Yankees and he had compiled a 2.55 ERA in those outings. In other words, don't be surprised when he bounces right back here in this rematch with the Yankees. The under, before that wild 8-3 win a week ago Friday, had been a perfect 2-0 in Cole's last 2 starts versus Boston and he has totaled 25 strikeouts in the 17 innings over his last 3 starts against the Red Sox. The Yankees had only 2 overs in their last 8 games of the season. The under trend continues here as the Red Sox final game of the season went over the total but this followed 7 straight unders! Look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8 that is posted at most books as of early morning Tuesday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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10-03-21 | Padres v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 112 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 -115 on Run Line over San Diego Padres, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET – The Padres got the upset win in extra innings yesterday but are just 2-12 last 14 games! San Diego is 3-9 last 12 times they were off a win. The Giants had won 9 of 10 games before yesterday's loss. San Francisco, with a chance to lock up the NL West Division on the final day of the season, will respond here. They will take advantage of facing Reiss Knehr. The Padres righty is winless in his 4 starts this season and has allowed 7 earned runs in 8 and 2 / 3 innings in his last 3 starts. San Francisco starts Logan Webb here. The Giants are 20-5 in his starts this season including 11-0 at home where the righty is 5-0 with a 1.65 ERA on the year! The Giants had a 7-game winning streak before losing a tight game last night and 6 of their last 8 victories were wins by a multiple-run margin! Note that San Francisco's 106 wins this season have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin. The Padres 82 losses have included 56 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Giants are 71-27 in games against teams with a losing record this season. Plenty of reason to expect a road blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -220 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a more reasonable -115 price range by utilizing the run line. Take San Francisco Giants 1.5 on the run line. |
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10-01-21 | Rays v. Yankees -124 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -124 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. Team and situational edges clearly with the home team in this one – #966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees -125 over Tampa Bay Rays, Friday at 7:05 PM ET – The Rays have nothing to play for here. The Yankees have everything to play for as they are still trying to lock up a wild card spot. New York is in a good spot but they still need another victory. Just because a team needs a win of course does not mean they get that win. But the fact is you have a very motivated Yankees team that has won 8 of 9 games against a Rays team that has lost 2 of 3 and has already locked up the #1 spot in the AL playoff seeding. New York starter Nestor Cortes has a 3.01 ERA this season as a starter and the Yankees are 10-3 in his starts including 5-1in his home starts. He was solid against the Rays in his lone starts against them this season. Shane McClanahan is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA against the Yankees this season that easily could be higher too as he has allowed 14 hits and walked 5 in those two starts and this was in only 9 and 1 / 3 innings! Look for the Yankees to jump on McClanahan again in this one plus get a strong start from Cortes. It will be tough for the Rays to be very focused at the plate in this one while the Yankees will be locked in and have scored 5 or more runs in 8 straight games! Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has been held to scoring 3 runs or less in 3 of last 4 games. We have the slight starting pitching edge here but even taking the starting pitching out of the equation, the team edge plus overall situational edge both rest squarely with the red hot home team in this one. We will grab the home team at a very fair small favorite price on the money line in this one and bet New York Yankees -125 |
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09-30-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
#915/916 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET – The last time Nick Pivetta faced the Orioles was less than two weeks ago and he struggled badly. Pivetta allowed 7 hits in less than 4 innings versus Baltimore and was fortunate to get a key double play before he exited or the damage could have been much worse. Now he faces the Orioles again but this time at Baltimore where their .443 slugging percentage this season ranks 3rd in the AL. Look for the Orioles hitters to again get to Pivetta early and often in this one as they respond off a rare home shutout loss last night. Boston should also be hitting well in this game too. The Red Sox have won 7 of last 8 games against Orioles and have averaged scoring 7.8 runs a game during this stretch! Boston should have no trouble connecting against Baltimore starter Alexander Wells and behind him is one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Wells is 0-3 with a 7.13 ERA in his 7 starts this season and allowed 5 earned runs in only 5 innings in his most recent start versus the Red Sox. Of his 7 starts this season, only 2 have been unders. Boston should crush the ball here but the Orioles also set up well to do much better at the plate than they did last night. This series has featured back to back unders so far but should finish with a bang. The five most recent meetings between these teams before this series saw the divisional foes combine to average a dozen runs per game in the 5 meetings. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-29-21 | Red Sox -1.5 v. Orioles | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
#965 ASA PLAY ON 8* Boston Red Sox -1.5 -155 on Run Line over Baltimore Orioles, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET – The Orioles got the upset win yesterday but are just 13-39 last 52 games! Baltimore is 0-6 last 6 times they were off a win. The Red Sox had won 6 of 7 games at Baltimore before yesterday's loss. Boston will respond here. They will take advantage of facing Zac Lowther. The Orioles lefty is 0-2 against the Red Sox this season and has allowed 10 earned runs in 5 and 2 / 3 innings in those two starts. Boston starts Nathan Eovaldi here. The Red Sox righty has a 2.20 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Orioles. Eovaldi is off a bad start versus the Yankees but this followed a solid stretch of 8 starts in which he compiled a 2.27 ERA. The Red Sox had a recent 7-game winning streak before hitting a rough patch against the Yankees and all 7 of those victories were wins by a multiple-run margin! Note that Boston's 88 wins this season have included 62 by more than a 1-run margin. The Orioles 106 losses have included 82 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Red Sox are 42-21 in games against teams with a losing record this season. The Orioles are 29-74 in games against teams with a winning record this season. Plenty of reason to expect a road blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -250 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a more reasonable -155 price range by utilizing the run line. Take Boston Red Sox -1.5 on the run line. |
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09-28-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 or 9.5 Runs – New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET – The Yankees and Blue Jays are involved in the wild card race with the Red Sox and Mariners and A's as 5 teams chasing just 2 spots in the American League! Suffice to say it is playoff pressure with this match-up but it is likely to be these starting pitchers wilting under the pressure. New York starter Jameson Taillon has struggled on the road this season. Taillon has an 8.21 ERA in his last 3 starts (2 on the road) and he has a 5.66 ERA in his 13 road starts this season. The over is 11-2 in those starts on the road! Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the start for the Blue Jays here and, though he has had some success against the Yankees this season, his recent struggles are troubling to say the least. Ryu has a 10.45 ERA in his last 3 starts and could not make it out of the 3rd inning in either of his last two starts. The over is 9-5 in Ryu's home starts and he has an unimpressive 4.92 ERA in those 14 starts. The last time he hosted the Yankees (in June) he gave up a pair of homers and had more walks than strikeouts. Yankees have won 6 straight games and averaged 6 runs per game. The Blue Jays have scored an average of 6 runs per game last 13 games and have won 8 of last 10 at home. This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-27-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
09-26-21 | Astros v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
#925/926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET – Yesterday's game was a low-scoring 2-1 Oakland win but this followed an O/U run of 8-0 in the meetings between these teams at Oakland this season. We look for that over trend to start up immediately again here based on this pitching match-up. The O/U is 13-7 in Jake Odorizzi's starts this season. He has a 4.70 ERA away from home and the last time he made a start in this ballpark he allowed 5 earned runs in 3 innings. The Astros right-hander's counterpart for this one is Paul Blackburn. The A's right-hander had a start he would rather forget (8 earned runs in 1 and 1 / 3 innings) in his only career start against the Astros. Also, Blackburn enters this outing struggling over his last 3 starts. Two of those 3 starts were at home and Blackburn allowed 8 runs (7 earned) in 6 and 2 / 3 innings in those two starts at Oakland Coliseum. The Astros will enjoy success at the plate after being shutdown yesterday. Houston had won 8 of 12 games and scored an average of 7 runs per game before being held to 1 run yesterday. Oakland, before the tight 2-1 win yesterday, had scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in last 11 games. This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-25-21 | Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET – The Phillies have won 6 straight games against right-handed starters. Philadelphia has also won 3 straight games when facing the Pirates and the combined score of those games is 35-16. Look for another dominating win here as Ranger Suarez gives the Phillies a big edge over Pittsburgh and starter William Crowe. Even though Crowe had success against the Phillies earlier this season that start was at home and he is now on the road for this one Crowe has a 6.44 ERA on the road this season and has an 8.25 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. Suarez has been fantastic for the Phillies this season including a 1.92 ERA in his 10 starts! The Pirates are 14-32 against southpaw starters this season and 18-42 in day games this season! Philadelphia is 33-18 in day games this season. The Phillies won by a multiple-run margin yesterday and note that Philadelphia's 80 wins this season have included 50 by more than a 1-run margin. The Pirates 96 losses have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Phillies are 13 games over .500 in home games this season and Pittsburgh is 23-55 in road games this season and 29-60 in games against teams with a winning record this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -260 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -130 price range by utilizing the run line. Take Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the run line. |
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09-24-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9 Runs – Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees, Friday at 7:10 PM ET – Rivalry game and played with playoff intensity as each of these clubs is currently holding a wild card spot but nothing is secure just yet! Considering that factor as well as this pitching match-up, we should see a very tight low-scoring pitchers duel in this one. Gerrit Cole gets the start for the Yankees and is off a rare bad start which means you know he will be 100% focused on a bounce back effort here. Cole is 9-4 with a 2.95 ERA in his road starts this season. The O/U is 4-10 in those 14 outings away from Yankee Stadium this season. Nathan Eovaldi starts for Boston here and he has been particularly strong at Fenway Park this season with a 6-3 record and a 2.91 ERA. Eovaldi enters this outing with a 2.12 ERA in his last 3 starts. The under is perfect 3-0 in his last 3 starts with the Yankees and he has compiled a 2.55 ERA in those outings. The under is a perfect 2-0 in Cole's last 2 starts versus Boston and he has totaled 19 strikeouts in the 11 innings over those 2 starts against the Red Sox. The Yankees are off an over but 6 of 8 games before that had stayed under the total. The under trend resumes here. Look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 9 that is posted at most books as of early morning Friday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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09-23-21 | Mariners v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
#965/966 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 8 Runs – Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics, Thursday at 3:35 PM ET – Yusei Kikuchi starts for the Mariners in this one. The Seattle southpaw has been having a dreadful time on the road. From mid-August to now he has made 3 road starts and has been hammered in every single one. The cumulative stats from those outings are 14 earned runs on 18 hits and 7 walks in only 7 and 1 / 3 innings of work! Kikuchi's first start out of the All Star break was also on the road and he allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings. Though he has had some success against the A's this season, his current road struggles have been consistent and have been ugly. Look for him to get rocked in this outing. Oakland counters with Chris Bassitt here and this is going to likely be a tough outing for him. He took a line drive to the face when on the mound August 17th and suffered multiple facial fractures. This will be his first start after that incident and, mentally, that is a tough situation to simply immediately bounce back from. Also going against Bassitt here is the fact he has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his two starts versus the Mariners this season. Seattle has won 4 straight games and scored an average of 5 runs per game in the victories. The Mariners are 12-5-1 to the over in their last 18 games. That includes a recent stretch of unders but given this pitching match-up, the over trending is very likely to resume here. There is strong support for expecting each starter to be a bit "off" in this one and the hitters will take advantage! This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-22-21 | Orioles v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
#926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -140 on Run Line over New York Yankees, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET – The Phillies have won 5 straight games against right-handed starters but Keegan Akin is a lefty so why would that matter? Here is the key point we are making: the last two lefties the Phillies faced were the crafty veteran Rich Hill and the very talented John Means of the Orioles. Keegan Akin does not fall into either of those two categories of southpaws! He is in his 2nd MLB season and has gone 2-10 with a 6.93 ERA in 23 games (16 starts).. In his 10 road starts this season Akin is 1-6 with an 8.64 ERA! The Orioles lefty is highly likely to struggle here and that means this game should be a blowout because the Baltimore bullpen is also one of the absolute worst in the majors this season. To stay in this game the Orioles would have to score plenty and, honestly, they will be lucky to score even a few in this one! Baltimore is up against a surging Zack Wheeler. The Phillies right-hander is 3-0 with a 1.02 ERA this month and has registered 23 strikeouts in 17 and 2 / 3 innings during this stretch. Wheeler has a 2.04 ERA in his 3 career starts versus the Orioles. More dominance expected here and he should get plenty of run support as Akin gets rocked again in this one. The Phillies won by just 1 run yesterday but note that Philadelphia's 77 wins this season have included 48 by more than a 1-run margin. The Orioles 103 losses have included 83 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Phillies are 10 games over .500 in home games this season and Baltimore is 28-73 in games against teams with a winning record this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -300 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -140 price range by utilizing the run line. Take Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the run line. |
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09-21-21 | Rangers v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Texas Rangers, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET – We fell just short with this play Monday but coming right back with it here. Yesterday the Yankees jumped out to a 4-0 lead and held Texas scoreless in 8 of the 9 innings but one 3-run inning was the difference. The Yankees won 4-3 but failed to cover the run line. As we mentioned here yesterday about this series, the good news for Yankees fans is they are welcoming the road-adverse Rangers to the Bronx. We look for New York to respond with not only wins but some big-margin victories in this series. Texas has lost 5 of 6 and the Rangers have been held to 3 or less runs in all 6 of those games! The Yankees got drilled Sunday by an 11-1 final but had scored an average of 5.5 runs per game over the 8-game stretch preceding that. Dane Dunning starts for Rangers here and he has struggled badly on the road this season and now makes his first ever start in the Bronx which is generally not an easy place to pitch for young starters! Dunning has a 6.80 ERA on the road this season and Texas is 1-9 in those 10 starts! Yankees start Jordan Montgomery and the lefty has a 3.25 ERA in his 11 home starts this season and New York has won all but 4 of those starts. The Yankees are 7-4 in his home starts this season. The Yankees won by just 1 run yesterday but note that New York's 84 wins this season have included 57 by more than a 1-run margin. The Rangers 95 losses have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Yankees are 54-30 in non-divisional games and Texas is 22-53 in road games this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -240 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -125 price range by utilizing the run line. Take New York Yankees -1.5 on the run line |
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09-20-21 | Rangers v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees -1.5 -135 on Run Line over Texas Rangers, Monday at 7:05 PM ET – After some struggles, the Yankees seemed to turn the corner with a 5-2 stretch over 7 games. That was before back to back losses to wrap up their series with Cleveland. The good news for the Yankees is they now welcome the road-adverse Rangers to the Bronx and we look for New York to respond after the back to back losses. Texas has lost 4 of 5 and the Rangers have been held to 2 or less runs in all 5 of those games! The Yankees got drilled yesterday by an 11-1 final but had scored an average of 5.5 runs per game over the 8-game stretch preceding this. Rookie AJ Alexy starts for Rangers here and he just got used in a long relief role and got crushed so this takes the luster off his first two starts being successful. Look for a carry-over from the rough relief outing right into a tough outing in the Bronx which is generally not an easy place to pitch for rookie starters! Yankees start Nestor Cortes and the lefty has a 2.70 ERA in his 11 starts this season and New York has won all but 3 of those starts! The Yankees are 4-1 in his home starts this season. The Yankees get back on track here and note that New York's 83 wins have included 57 by more than a 1-run margin. The Rangers 94 losses have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Yankees are 53-30 in non-divisional games and Texas is 22-52 in road games this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -260 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -140 price range by utilizing the run line. Take New York Yankees -1.5 on the run line. |
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09-19-21 | Braves v. Giants -116 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -116 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. Team and situational edges clearly with the home team in this one – #962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -120 over Atlanta Braves, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET – The Braves have lost 14 of 22 games including 4 straight defeats. The Giants have won 13 of their last 16 games and already took the first two games of this 3-game set. Atlanta is looking to avoid the sweep here but that kind of wagering angle tends to be overplayed. The fact is simply that the Giants are the much hotter team plus have home field edge here. San Francisco is 49-25 at home this season. The Braves are 28-38 this season against teams with a winning record. Atlanta has fared okay against divisional foes and against the NL Central Division teams but against the NL West as well as the AL teams, the Braves are a combined 14-28 this year! San Francisco is 38-17 in day games and 21-10 against NL East teams this season. Braves are only 6-6 in Fried road starts this season though he has a respectable 3.90 ERA. DeSclafani has been the hotter pitcher of late with a 2.12 ERA his last 3 starts, all Giants wins, and San Francisco is 9-3 in his home starts this season. The Giants also have the better bullpen in this match-up. We have the slight starting pitching edge here but even taking the starting pitching out of the equation, the team edge plus bullpen edge and overall situational edge both rest squarely with the red hot home team over the slumping road team in this one. We will grab the home team at a very fair small favorite price on the money line in this one and bet San Francisco Giants -120 |
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09-17-21 | Twins v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -110 on Run Line over Minnesota Twins, Friday at 7:07 PM ET – Hyun-Jin Ryu is off a poor start for the Blue Jays but he had been pitching very well. Ryu had a bad start at Baltimore but before that he had only one truly rough outing the last 5. In the other 4 of the 5 outings, Ryu allowed just 14 hits in 25 innings. Look for him to prove to be tough on a Twins team that has lost 6 of 8 games and have scored an average of only 3.8 runs in last 10 games. In fact, removing two high-scoring wins from the equation, Minnesota averaged just 2.9 runs in the other 8 games. Look for the red hot Blue Jays to roll in this game. Toronto is on a 13-2 run and has scored an average of 8 runs per game during this stretch. The Jays face Twins starter Michael Pineda in this one. The right-hander has a 12.34 ERA in last 3 starts against Toronto and allowed 7 homers in those 3 outings. Pineda enters this start off a good outing versus the Royals but had a 5.80 ERA in his 9 prior starts. The Blue Jays stay hot here and note that Toronto's 82 wins have included 68 by more than a 1-run margin! The Twins 83 losses have included 64 by more than a 1-run margin. Also, the Blue Jays are 61-44 versus right-handers and Minnesota is 16-33 versus southpaws this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Hotter batters and a huge pitching edge and you can see why the big Blue Jays hot streak is likely to continue this evening. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play-on team is available in a "pick" money (-110) price range on the run line. Take Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the run line. |
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09-16-21 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 5:05 PM ET – Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the Orioles had their best starter, John Means, on the mound. The Yankees have now won 4 of 5 games and had scored 6 or more runs in 4 straight games prior to yesterday's 4-3 win. On Thursday, the Orioles bullpen is more likely to be exposed as Chris Ellis gets the start here. Yes he was solid against the Yankees when he faced them two weeks ago but they'll be better in the rematch. Also, he has averaged less than 5 innings in his 4 starts this season. The Yankees start Jordan Montgomery and he is off a rough road outing. Also, at Baltimore this season Montgomery has allowed 7 earned runs on 12 hits in only 8 innings of work. Ellis has walked 7 in 10 innings over his last two starts and we are expecting plenty of base runners for both clubs in this one. Prior to yesterday's low-scoring loss, the Orioles had allowed an average of 9.7 runs per game over their past 7 games. The over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 games against a right-handed starter. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-15-21 | Rays v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 115 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 +110 on Run Line over Tampa Bay Rays, Wednesday at 3:07 PM ET – Tampa Bay got the win yesterday but this followed losses in 7 of 12 games overall and 4 of 5 road games. Toronto had been red hot before yesterday's loss. The Blue Jays had won 15 of 17 games before the loss yesterday. 67 of Toronto's 81 wins this season have been by 2+ runs. With the pitching edge here, look for another blowout win for Toronto as they bounce back from yesterday's defeat. Robbie Ray gets the call for the Jays. He has held the Rays to a total of just 3 earned runs on 11 hits while striking out 24 over 21 innings in his last 3 starts against them. All of those were within the past 4 months by the way. The point is that Robbie Ray has fared well in the current season versus the Rays. The Tampa Bay starter in this one is Michael Wacha and he has pitched a little better of late but he did not face a team that is hot-hitting right now like the Blue Jays are. Toronto has averaged 8 runs a game in the 15 victories during their 15-3 run. Wacha has a 5.77 ERA on the road this season as a starter with a 1-3 record away from home. Toronto is 6-1 last 7 times when off a loss. Tampa Bay scoring an average of 3.7 runs last 6 games. Toronto scored 5 or more runs in 12 of last 14 games. Hotter batters and a huge pitching edge and you can see why the big Blue Jays bounce back is likely this afternoon. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play-on team is available in a plus money (+110) price range on the run line. Take Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the run line. |
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09-14-21 | Brewers v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
#931/932 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Milwaukee Brewers @ Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET – Low total considering the way these two teams have been swinging the bats and the fact that Freddy Peralta has not been the same since he returned from injury. Peralta has been a little "off" and has not lasted very long in his two starts since he returned to the rotation. The O/U is 5-0-1 in Tigers last 6 home games. Detroit has scored an average of 7 runs a game in their last 5 games at Comerica Park. Wily Peralta starts for the Tigers in this one. Peralta has a low ERA last 3 starts but a 1.50 WHIP as he has not been overly sharp and has been a bit fortunate in terms of earned runs allowed. Now the Detroit right-hander faces a surging Milwaukee lineup. The Brewers have won 5 straight games and 11 of 14 thanks in part to averaging 6 runs per game in those 11 victories. In the current 5-game run Milwaukee has averaged 7.6 runs per game. The O/U on a 5-2 surge in last 7 games and the over trend should continue in this match-up per the above key factors. This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-13-21 | Cardinals v. Mets +104 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. Team and situational edges clearly with the home team in this one – #954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Mets +105 over St Louis Cardinals, Monday at 7:10 PM ET – Adam Wainwright is having a respectable season for the Cardinals but this is still a pitcher who has struggled more on the road than at home. Looking at the last 4 full seasons prior to this year - not including the very short 2020 MLB season - Wainwright had an ERA of a full 3 to 4 runs higher on the road than at home in 3 of the 4 seasons! Now he takes on a Mets team that has been making a late-season push for a playoff berth and has a solid home record this season. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are a below .500 team in road games this season and likely to struggle with Rich Hill. The veteran southpaw has been in top form of late with a total of only 3 earned runs allowed in 17 innings over his last 3 starts. He should get plenty of run support here. The red hot Mets lineup has led the way to producing 7 or more runs in 3 straight games and an average of 6 runs per game last 11 games. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have been held to 2 or less runs in 7 of last 11 games! We have the pitching edge here but even taking the starting pitching out of the equation, the team edge and situational edge both rest squarely with the home team in this one. We will grab the home team near an even money price on the money line in this one and bet New York Mets +105 |
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09-12-21 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 22-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET – Does not matter who pitches here really. The Blue Jays are red hot at the plate. The Orioles have also been swinging the bats quite well and are known for hitting better when at home and also the Baltimore bullpen has been one of the worst in the majors this season. So probably Zac Lowther gets the start but Mike Baumann and Alexander Wells could also see action here. What we do know is that Lowther would face a much tougher task than he did in his most recent start as that was against the Royals. Also, Lowther has a 6.91 ERA in the majors this season and had a 6.53 ERA at the AAA level of the minors this season too. Baumann also faced the Royals and that is his only MLB appearance and, again, much tougher test here. Wells has a 7.15 ERA at the MLB level this season and has been hit very hard. So look for Lowther to start but, again, with these Orioles it just does not matter. The Blue Jays are expected to start Steven Matz and he has good recent numbers but Baltimore has given some trouble. Against the Orioles this season he has a 5.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in two appearances. Orioles are averaging 5.5 runs scored last 8 home games. Blue Jays during their current 10-1 run, have averaged 8.1 runs scored per victory! This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-11-21 | Giants -1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
#951 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 -130 on Run Line over Chicago Cubs, Saturday at 2:20 PM ET – The Giants are rolling once again. With yesterday's 6-1 win here over the Cubs, San Francisco has won 7 of last 8 games. Also, all 5 wins in their current 5-game winning streak have come by at least a 2-run margin. The Cubs start Zach Davies here. The right-hander has allowed 8 earned runs in 8 and 2 / 3 innings in last 2 home starts. Davies is 6-10 on the season and has a 5.58 ERA in his home starts this year. Kevin Gausman starts for the Giants and is a fantastic 13-5 on the season including 7-2 in road starts. Gausman has a 1.95 ERA on the road this season! Gausman allowed zero earned runs and struck out 10 in his lone start versus Chicago this season. Davies got hit very hard and was unable to complete 5 innings in his lone start versus the Giants this season. San Francisco is set up well for a big road blowout win here and Gausman should once again dominate. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in an reasonable money (-130) price range on the run line. Take San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the run line. |
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09-10-21 | Brewers -140 v. Indians | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. Team and situational edges clearly with the visitors in this one – #925 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -145 over Cleveland Indians, Friday at 7:10 PM ET – The Brewers were off yesterday. The Indians will be playing for the 11th straight day. Cleveland got the win yesterday by a 4-1 count over the Twins but this followed 3 straight losses and defeats in 5 of the last 6. In those 5 losses the Indians scored an average of only 2 runs per game. The Brewers enter this game with the best road record in baseball at 46-24 on the season. Cleveland is an ugly 24-44 in games against teams with a winning record this season! The Brewers have won 8 of 11 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs in the 8 victories. The Indians are expected to start Eli Morgan here and are 1-5 with a 7.53 ERA in his home starts this season. The Brewers are expected to start Adrian Houser here and are 8-3 in his road starts this season. Overall on the year Houser has a 3.54 ERA and he enters this start with a 2.60 ERA last 3 starts. Houser has allowed only 8 hits in 14 innings over his last two starts. Cleveland has lost 3 straight and 5 of the last 6 when facing right-handed starters. We have the big pitching edge here but even taking the starting pitching out of the equation, the team edge and situational edge both squarely with the visitors in this one. We will grab the road team as a favorite that is in a reasonable price range on the money line in this one and bet Milwaukee Brewers -145 |
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09-09-21 | Mets -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
#953 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Mets -1.5 -100 on Run Line over Miami Marlins, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET – The Marlins got the win in extra innings yesterday but that was with their top pitcher on the mound. Now Jesus Luzardo gets the call. The Miami southpaw is 4-6 with a 6.53 ERA and his repertoire of pitches pales in comparison to that of the stuff yesterday's starter, Sandy Alcantara, has. Luzardo has been charged with 8 earned runs on 15 hits in 10 and 1 / 3 innings over his last two starts versus NL East opponents and both of those starts were at home just like this one is against another divisional foe. The Marlins had lost 13 of 19 before coming up with the tight win in 10 innings yesterday. The Mets had won 8 of 10 games prior to yesterday's loss. Look for Marcus Stroman to help lead the Mets to victory here. The New York right-hander has a 2.93 ERA on the season and New York is 3-0 in his last 3 starts. He has a 2.84 ERA this season in starts versus the Marlins. 9 of the Mets last 10 wins have come by a margin of 2+ runs and our computer math model for this game is strongly favoring a big win for the Mets as Stroman comes up with a gem and the Mets bats (6.6 runs per game in that 8-2 run) bounce back from yesterday's loss. New York is set up well for a big road blowout win here and Stroman should once again dominate. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in an even money (-100) price range on the run line. Take New York Mets -1.5 on the run line. |
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09-08-21 | Tigers v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
#927/928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 6:35 PM ET – Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the teams combined for 18 hits. The day before the teams combined for 19 hits. Based on Wednesday's pitching match-up, look for this game to get past the 20-mark in hits and we should see plenty of runs as a result. There is rain expected in Pittsburgh today but it should be confined to the late morning and early afternoon hours so there should be no weather concerns for this game. Prior to yesterday's under, the over was on a 6-1 run in Tigers games and a 6-0 run in Pirates games. Detroit starts Matt Manning in this one and he was hammered for 8 earned runs in 3 and 2 / 3 innings in most recent start and that was at home. Now he is on the road where he is 1-4 with an 8.16 ERA this season. Pittsburgh starts Mitch Keller in this one. Keller is off a strong road outing but allowed 7 earned runs in 5 and 1 / 3 innings in prior start and that was at home. He has struggled at home this season with a 2-7 record and 8.31 ERA and the over is 8-3 in his 11 home starts on the year. Manning getting hit at a .305 clip on the season and Keller getting hit at a .310 clip on the season. Two very hittable pitchers and you have two teams that have been swinging the bats well over the past week. Look for the over trending to resume here as neither one of these teams is known for strength in terms of their relievers either. The Detroit bullpen has a 5.54 ERA on the road this season. The Pirates bullpen ranks near the bottom of the National League this season for ERA. This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-07-21 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
#969/970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET – Rays 11, Sox 10. That was the final score in extra innings yesterday in a game that was 9-9 after 9 and this continued a season-long trend when these teams are matched up. The over is 11-5 in their meetings including 6-1 in games played at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. Even though Eduardo Rodriguez just had a quality start at Tampa Bay, the Rays have otherwise been a red hot team and Rodriguez has a 5.69 ERA in home starts this season! The Red Sox lefty gave up 5 earned runs in 3 and 2 / 3 innings in most recent start at Fenway. With yesterday's win, Tampa Bay improved to 23-7 last 30 games and have scored, incredibly, an average of 7 runs per game during this stretch! The Red Sox are known for being one of the top hitting teams in baseball when at home and they have scored an average of 8 runs per game in their last 8 as a host. Drew Rasmussen starts for the Rays here and has transitioned well from the bullpen. He has posted solid numbers though he averages only 3 and 2 / 3 innings per start. However, this will be the 3rd time he has faced the Red Sox in a span of 4 weeks and it is going to catch up with him here. The way Boston has been hitting when at Fenway Park is going to flip the script against Rasmussen this time around. The righty has a 4.72 ERA in road outings in his young career. This total is in the 9.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-06-21 | Tigers v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
#923/924 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Monday at 1:35 PM ET – The Tigers are off of a win in a game at Cincinnati that was a rare pitchers duel. Detroit entered that game against the Reds on a streak of 5 straight overs and allowing an average of 7 runs per game. The Tigers have scored at least 4 runs in 5 straight games and have averaged scoring 7.4 runs during this stretch. If each team gets to at least 4 runs we can not lose this play as that would mean at least reaching a total of 9. That being said, look for the Pirates to do their fair share of the work at the plate in this one too. Pittsburgh has plenty of confidence at the plate as they just wrapped up a high-scoring series at Wrigley Field against the Cubs. The Pirates do tend to hit better at home than on the road and that has held true again this season. Pittsburgh is off an 11-8 loss at Chicago yesterday and the over is now a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 games. The Pirates have scored at least 5 runs in 4 straight games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. Pittsburgh has allowed at least 6 runs in 5 straight games and has allowed an average of 7 runs during this stretch. Tarik Skubal starts for the Tigers and he has a 7.20 ERA in his last two starts and allowed multiple homers in each game. Bryce Wilson starts for the Pirates and he has been roughed up in 2 of his last 3 outings. In those games he compiled an 8.00 ERA and gave up multiple homers in each outing. Look for more of the same here. Skubal has struggled on the road since he came into the bigs. The lefty went 0-3 with 6.86 ERA in road starts last season and his ERA (4.96) this season is more than a full run higher on the road compared to at home. The Detroit bullpen has a 5.60 ERA on the road this season. This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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09-05-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -120 on Run Line over St Louis Cardinals, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET – Jon Lester is off a good start at Cincinnati but quality outings certainly have been the exception rather than the norm for the veteran lefty this season. Lester, in his other recent starts, has had to work out of a lot of jams. The fact is he is very hittable and the lefty is 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.70 WHIP on the road this season. The Brewers counter with Corbin Burnes and he has been fantastic this season. The Brewers are a perfect 8-0 in his last 8 starts and 7 of those 8 wins were by 2+ runs! The Cardinals are off a shutout loss in yesterday's match-up and have now lost 8 of last 11 games against right-handed starters. St Louis is very likely to struggle again here as Burnes has held his opponent to just 1 earned run or less in 9 of last 11 starts! Milwaukee is 37-18 in day games this season. Burnes has faced the Cardinals 3 times this season and has allowed a total of just 1 earned run in 17 innings versus St Louis! The Brewers just faced Lester about two weeks ago and the southpaw allowed 4 earned runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in 4 and 1 / 3 innings and he did not record a single strikeout. 65 of the Brewers 83 victories have been by 2+ runs this season while 49 of the Cardinals 65 losses have been by 2+ runs this season. Milwaukee is set up well for a big home blowout win here and Burnes should once again dominate. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very reasonable -120 price range on the run line. Take Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the run line. |
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09-03-21 | Phillies -139 v. Marlins | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -139 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. Team and situational edges clearly with the visitors in this one – #955 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -145 over Miami Marlins, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET – When a team is down 6-0 on the road and it is beyond the halfway point in a contest and they come back to win the game, that team is definitely "feeling it" and that is the situation right now with these Phillies. With that 7-6 win at Washington yesterday, Philadelphia has won 6 straight games which is the longest winning streak in the majors right now. Also, the Phillies have scored at least 7 runs in 7 straight games! The Marlins, on the other hand, have been struggling to score runs. Yesterday's 4-3 loss at New York (lost both match-ups with the Mets) dropped Miami to 4-11 in their last 15 games. Miami has been held to 3 or less runs in 10 of those 14 games! While the Phillies have scored at least 7 runs in 7 straight games, the Marlins have scored more than 6 runs just 2 times in the last 17 games! Phillies starter Kyle Gibson is 10-4 with a 2.66 ERA on the season and has produced quality starts in 5 of his 6 outings since coming to Philly from Texas this summer. The Marlins Jesus Luzardo is off a strong start versus the Reds but this followed tough performances in each of his first five starts with Miami after coming over from Oakland. Luzardo allowed 24 earned runs in 22 and 1 / 3 innings in those five starts. We have the big pitching edge here but even taking the starting pitching out of the equation, the team edge and situational edge is squarely with the visitors in this one. We will grab the road team as a small favorite on the money line in this one and bet Philadelphia Phillies -145 |
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09-02-21 | Brewers +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
#901 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 runs (-130) over San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 3:45 PM ET - The money line on this game has moved toward the Giants and the run line has followed suit as of early Thursday morning. This has put the Brewers +1.5 runs into a very playable range as it is now around a -130 price. The Giants, even if they win this game, have 25 wins by just 1-run this season. Only two teams in the majors have more than that. The point is that San Francisco may not even win this game and, if they do, it might be by just a single run. Only 59 of the Giants 133 games this season have been a SF win by a margin of 2 or more goals. With the way San Francisco is slumping, that is likely to be 59 of 134 after this one goes into the books. The Giants have lost 4 straight games overall and also 4 straight home games. San Francisco, with yesterday's loss, dropped to 23-18 this season against left-handed starters. The Brewers have been the best road team in the majors this season with a record of 46-23. Milwaukee starter Eric Lauer has given up some big hits to the Giants in recent meetings at San Francisco but still he is 3-0 in his last 3 starts against them with only 14 hits allowed in 18 innings. San Francisco has been in a slump at the plate and has been held to 3 or less runs in 10 of last 14 games. The Brewers have won 8 of 11 games and have scored 4 or more runs in 8 of those 11 games. Giants starter Logan Webb has great numbers this season but too much weight is being put on that and not enough on the overall recent play of these teams and that has led to line value with Milwaukee in this spot. The fact the Brewers just saw Webb (for the first time) 4 weeks ago also should help them here. Brewers are 66-37 against right-handed starters this season and, just like last year, Webb is again struggling more against left-handed bats than righties. Just like yesterday's game, look for the Brewers to have left-handed bats for at least 4 of the 8 position players. Look for the hot team to get the upset but, if they do fall short, the run line should prove to be ample insurance. Bet the Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 runs on the run line. |
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09-01-21 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
#967/968 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 10 Runs – Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 7:07 PM ET – What a rare game for Baltimore yesterday! Not only did they get a good start from Keegan Akin but their bullpen performed well also and that led to a 4-2 win. We do not expect lightning to strike twice on back to back days. The Orioles are starting Matt Harvey and he is 6-14 with a 6.18 ERA on the season. He is not showing signs of turning it around either as he is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, in his last 3 starts against Toronto, Harvey has been charged with 13 earned runs in 13 and 2 / 3 innings! That said, the Blue Jays lineup should certainly have a bounce back day. But that is why Toronto is a high-priced favorite and we just can not trust Toronto starter Steven Matz which is why we are looking to ride the over to victory in this one. The Blue Jays lefty struggled at Baltimore when he faced the Orioles early in July. The over is 7-3 in his 10 home starts this season. Matz has pitched well in day games this season but, under the lights, he is 5-5 with a 4.89 ERA and opponents hitting .299 against him! The Orioles should get to him again here just like the prior meeting but, at the same time, look for Harvey and the Baltimore relievers that follow him to get pounded in this one. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-31-21 | Cubs v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
#929/930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Chicago Cubs @ Minnesota Twins, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET – The Cubs lineup is, of course, not what it used to be. However, the Twins pitching rotation has been depleted by injuries and Chicago can take advantage of facing John Gant here. The former Cardinals starter will be making his 3rd start since coming to Minnesota. As a result of having previously been with a division rival of the Cubs, they are familiar with him. Gant had a really rough time against the Cubs the last time when he faced them earlier this season and he did not even make it out of the 2nd inning. Also, Gant enters this start in poor current form with an 0-3 record and 9.58 ERA his last 3 starts and the last two of those have been with the Twins. Chicago starter Kyle Davies also expected to have some issues here. Davies is 2-4 with a 4.77 ERA on the road this season. He enters this start in poor current form as you can see with his last two starts even though both were at home! Davies gave up 5 homers and was lucky the damage was not worse than being charged with 6 earned runs in those 10 and 2 / 3 innings at Wrigley Field! The right-hander is facing a Twins team that has been tough on right-handed starters of late. Minnesota was shut down by the Yankees Gerrit Cole, just as most teams are. However, in their other 6 games since August 18th against right-handed starters the Twins have scored an average of 6.7 runs per game. The over went 4-1-1 in those games. The Cubs have also trended over of late with a 5-1-1 mark in their past 7 games. Chicago is off a 13-1 drubbing at the hands of the White Sox on Sunday but the Cubs scored an average of 8.2 runs a game in the 5 contests that preceded that. Last but not least, the Twins bullpen has been one of the weaker ones in MLB this season and the Cubs pen has not been much better and also has struggled on the road. This total is in the 9.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-30-21 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
#971/972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ Texas Rangers, Monday at 8:05 PM ET – The Rangers surprised with a 13-2 win yesterday. Though that type of offensive outburst has been rare for Texas they should carry momentum right into this match-up with a struggling German Marquez. The Rockies right-hander is 3-7 with a 5.16 ERA on the road this season. He enters this start in particularly poor form with a total of 12 earned runs allowed in just 7 innings over his past two road starts. Marquez has allowed 4 homers in his last 3 starts. The Rangers, despite all the losing, have scored 6 or more runs in 5 of last 10 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in the last 8 games. The Rockies, despite a horrible road record on the season, have scored better of late on the road. Colorado is off a shutout win over the Dodgers and they've suddenly won 3 of 4 on the road and scored an average of 6 runs in these games. The Rockies will be facing the Rangers A.J. Alexy who is a highly touted rookie. However, despite his solid numbers this season, Alexy averages less than 5 innings per appearance and also this was his first season above the single A level of the minors. Do not be surprised if he struggles some as this is a big jump up to the majors for him and is only because of the Rangers having a number of starting pitchers on the covid-19 protocol list. Also, Alexy is unlikely to pitch deep per his track record in the minors. This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-30-21 | Cardinals v. Reds -1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
#952 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cincinnati Reds -1.5 +105 on Run Line over St Louis Cardinals, Monday at 6:40 PM ET - Jon Lester has a decent ERA last 3 starts but has had to work out of a lot of jams. The fact is he is very hittable and the lefty is 1-4 with a 6.15 ERA on the road this season. The Reds counter with Luis Castillo and he has been fantastic this summer. After a very rough May, Castillo has been back to his typical dominating form. Since June 1st, Castillo has an impressive 2.74 ERA. The Cardinals are off a loss at Pittsburgh and have now lost 6 of last 7 games against right-handed starters. The Reds are off a loss at Miami yesterday but are 36-22 in divisional games this season and happy to be back home where they have won 10 of last 12 games! The Cardinals are 21-34 this season in games against teams with a winning record. 51 of the Reds 71 victories have been by 2+ runs this season while 47 of the Cardinals 63 losses have been by 2+ runs this season. Cincinnati is set up well for a big home blowout win here and Castillo should dominate. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a +105 price range on the run line. Take Cincinnati Reds -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-29-21 | Astros -1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 2-13 | Loss | -133 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
#920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 -135 on Run Line over Texas Rangers, Sunday at 2:35 PM ET - The Astros are 11-3 against the Rangers this season. Zack Greinke is 3-0 last 3 starts versus Texas and those victories were all by multiple-run margins - an aggregate score of 21 to 9. Greinke is 6-0 with a 2.34 ERA on the road this season. Taylor Hearn starts for the Rangers here and is 0-2 with a 5.78 ERA in his 3 home starts on the year. Texas is on an 11-35 run and 30 of those 35 losses have been by more than 1 run! You can see why we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs here to get a reasonable price on an Astros team that should dominate here. Greinke in line for a great start and the Rangers are 22-56 against right-handed starters this season. Houston is a fantastic 36-16 in divisional games this season and still working hard to hold off Oakland at the top of the AL West. That said, Greinke and the Astros are unlikely to let Hearn and the Rangers stand in the way on Sunday afternoon. The Astros have won 7 of 9 games and 18 of their last 20 victories have been by 2+ runs. Houston is set up well for a big road rout win here and Greinke should dominate. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a reasonable -135 price range on the run line. Take Houston Astros -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-28-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
#952 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -105 on Run Line over Arizona Diamondbacks, Saturday at 6:05 PM ET - We had our eyes on this potential match-up for Saturday and it could not have been set up more perfectly. The Phillies off a big win in extra innings at home yesterday and can build off that momentum here. That is because the Diamondbacks are starting Humberto Mejia while the Phillies are starting Kyle Gibson. Arizona's Mejia has only 4 career starts at the MLB level and he has been hit at a .302 mark in those outings. Also, though he has some good numbers at the lower level of the minors, he has struggled facing hitters at the AAA level. In his 12 starts this year at the AAA level he compiled a 5.93 ERA and was hit at a .305 clip. As you can see, he has been hit at over .300 when facing hitters above the AA level whether in the minors or the majors. Mejia just started last week at Pittsburgh and he only allowed 2 earned runs but 6 hits in 5 innings and he walked a pair. Keep in mind, this was against a bad Pirates team and now he faces a Phillies team still fighting hard to remain in playoff contention. Philadelphia will be bolstered today by having Kyle Gibson on the mound. He is coming off a strong outing and has had 5 quality starts in his last 6 outings. Gibson allowed only 9 earned runs in 32 and 2 / 3 innings in those 5 starts and also has had strong success against the Diamondbacks in his career. This Arizona team, with yesterday's loss, dropped to 17-50 in road games this season. The Diamondbacks, prior to yesterday's one run loss, were on a run in which 19 of 23 losses were by 2+ runs. 18 of the Phillies last 25 wins were by 2+ runs before yesterday's win by a single run. Philadelphia is set up well for a big home blowout win here and Gibson should dominate. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very affordable -105 price range on the run line. Take Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the run line. |
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08-27-21 | Blue Jays v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
#917/918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers, Friday at 7:10 PM ET – On the surface, this may not look like an over but there are some interesting aspects to the line here. By that, we don't just mean the total either. This looks like it should be an easy Jays win and yet Toronto opened up as a rather moderately priced favorite. The line has since risen considerably on the Blue Jays but we feel the message with that earlier lower money line from the odds makers is that they are expecting the Tigers to score some runs here (and have a shot at the upset as a result) because certainly the Blue Jays should get their runs here too. That is also why, in our opinion, this total opened up at a 9.5 which might have seemed, before digging deeper, to be a little on the high side. Let's dig in! The starter for the Tigers is Matt Manning and he has a 6.75 ERA his last 3 starts and has been hit hard with 23 hits in 14 and 2 / 3 innings! The starter for Toronto here is Steven Matz and the Tigers just saw him last week. He had some success but only recorded one strikeout and now Detroit gets him at home. The over is 4-1-1 in Tigers last home 6 games and they allowed 46 runs in those games but also did score 10 in their most recent game as a host and are coming off a road trip in which they won 3 of 5. That helps confidence and, speaking of confidence, the Jays exploded for 7 runs yesterday but they allowed 10 in that one! Toronto has averaged 6.3 runs last 3 road games and the over is 4-0 in the Blue Jays last 4 games away from home. Both starters could get lit up here and then the bullpens are likely to have some struggles too. This total is in the 9.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-26-21 | Rangers v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
#967/968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Indians, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET – These teams each reached double digits in hits yesterday. There were only 4 other games on the board yesterday where each team had at least 9 hits. Those 4 games averaged 16 runs total while the match-up between the Rangers and Indians reached 9 runs for a push on the posted total of 9 runs for the game. The point is that there certainly could have been more runs yesterday and we feel strongly that we will see those runs today. Rangers entered yesterday's game scoring an average of 7 runs last 3 games. The Indians have won 7 of 11 games and have scored an average of about 6 runs per game during this stretch. Cleveland facing Jordan Lyles on the mound for Texas in this one. Lyles is 3-7 with a 5.40 ERA in his road starts this season and the over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts overall. Lyles is off a rare good start versus the Red Sox. He was charged with at least 5 earned runs in each of his 3 preceding starts so the start against Boston was a rarity indeed. The Indians start Sam Hentges and there have only been 3 unders in his 11 starts this season. He has an 8.27 ERA on the season and has not recorded a single winning decision in his 11 starts this season. The Rangers bullpen has a 5.03 ERA on the road this season and the Indians bullpen has good numbers on the season but an unimpressive 4.10 ERA the last 30 days. Both starters could get lit up here and then the bullpens likely to have some struggles too. This total is in the 9.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-25-21 | Giants v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
#907/908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET – Taijuan Walker starts for the Mets in this one. The New York right-hander has struggled badly since the mid-summer Classic. Post-All Star break Walker has made 7 starts and he is 0-5 with a 7.49 ERA. Now he faces a Giants team with a .439 slugging percentage this season - tops in the National League. The Giants starter here is Johnny Cueto. He is coming back from an injury and could show some rust in this start. Cueto is 1-3 with a 4.93 ERA on the road this season. Opponents are hitting .309 against him in those 9 road starts. Cueto also has been much worse in night games than day games. Under the lights the Giants right-hander is 2-3 with a 4.78 ERA and opponents hitting .301 against him this season. The Mets got drilled 8-0 by San Francisco yesterday but should bounce back against Cueto. New York entered this series having scored 4 or more runs in 5 of last 6 home games. Expect a bounce back here for the NY lineup and look for the Giants to continue their strong success at the plate. This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over |
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08-24-21 | Diamondbacks -110 v. Pirates | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers. Team and situational edges clearly with the visitors in this one – #951 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Diamondbacks -110 over Pittsburgh Pirates, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET – The Pirates got the win yesterday but were on a 3-10 run in home games before getting the rare W yesterday. Overall, Pittsburgh had lost 16 of 20 games. The Diamondbacks, though certainly having a rough season and struggling on the road overall, had won 7 of 10 games before yesterday's loss. Now, on Tuesday, Arizona is scheduled to start Madison Bumgarner and he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the All Star Break. Bumgarner has a 1.93 ERA in his last 7 starts! The Pirates JT Brubaker has been at the other end of the spectrum during roughly the same period of time. Brubaker is not only 4-13 on the season but he has gone 0-7 with an 8.26 ERA over his last 9 starts and he has been amazingly homer-prone! In 7 of those 9 starts Brubaker has allowed 2 or more homers! We understand it might seem hard to trust a team with such a bad road record here but they have been the better team in recent weeks without a doubt and we especially like having them off a loss here while the Pirates win over them yesterday was a rare one. In fact, Arizona had won 9 of last 10 against Pittsburgh before yesterday's defeat. We have the big pitching edge here but even taking the starting pitching out of the equation, the team edge and situational edge is squarely with the visitors in this one. We will grab the road team as a small favorite on the money line in this one and bet Arizona Diamondbacks -110 |
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ASA MLB Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-06-22 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
06-05-22 | Mariners v. Rangers -125 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -125 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
06-04-22 | Nationals v. Reds -124 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
06-03-22 | Twins v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
06-02-22 | Padres v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
06-01-22 | Marlins v. Rockies -110 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
05-30-22 | Braves v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
05-29-22 | Blue Jays v. Angels -125 | Top | 11-10 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
05-28-22 | Pirates v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
05-27-22 | Astros -1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
05-27-22 | Blue Jays -117 v. Angels | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
05-26-22 | Guardians v. Tigers UNDER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
05-25-22 | Brewers v. Padres -131 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -131 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
05-24-22 | Royals v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 102 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
05-23-22 | Phillies -113 v. Braves | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
05-22-22 | Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
05-21-22 | White Sox v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
05-19-22 | Reds v. Guardians OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 11 m | Show |
05-18-22 | Nationals v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
05-17-22 | Tigers v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
05-16-22 | Braves v. Brewers -132 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
05-15-22 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -110 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
05-14-22 | Guardians -125 v. Twins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
05-12-22 | Reds v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
05-11-22 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
05-10-22 | Royals v. Rangers UNDER 8 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
05-09-22 | A's v. Tigers UNDER 7 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
05-08-22 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
05-07-22 | Brewers v. Braves UNDER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
05-06-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
05-05-22 | Marlins +100 v. Padres | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
05-04-22 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
05-03-22 | Reds v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
05-02-22 | Angels v. White Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
05-01-22 | Astros v. Blue Jays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show |
04-30-22 | Yankees -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
04-29-22 | Angels v. White Sox UNDER 7 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
04-28-22 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
04-27-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
04-26-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
04-25-22 | Guardians +109 v. Angels | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
04-24-22 | Rangers v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
04-23-22 | Rangers v. A's -125 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -125 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
04-22-22 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
04-21-22 | Orioles v. A's -118 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
04-20-22 | White Sox v. Guardians -130 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
04-19-22 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
11-02-21 | Braves +117 v. Astros | Top | 7-0 | Win | 117 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves -105 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
10-26-21 | Braves v. Astros -129 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -129 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
10-21-21 | Braves +130 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
10-19-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
10-16-21 | Dodgers -127 v. Braves | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -127 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
10-14-21 | Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
10-12-21 | Brewers v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
10-11-21 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
10-10-21 | Rays v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
10-08-21 | Dodgers -110 v. Giants | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10-06-21 | Cardinals v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
10-05-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
10-03-21 | Padres v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 112 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
10-01-21 | Rays v. Yankees -124 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -124 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
09-30-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
09-29-21 | Red Sox -1.5 v. Orioles | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
09-28-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
09-27-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
09-26-21 | Astros v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
09-25-21 | Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
09-24-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
09-23-21 | Mariners v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
09-22-21 | Orioles v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
09-21-21 | Rangers v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
09-20-21 | Rangers v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
09-19-21 | Braves v. Giants -116 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -116 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
09-17-21 | Twins v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
09-16-21 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
09-15-21 | Rays v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 115 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
09-14-21 | Brewers v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
09-13-21 | Cardinals v. Mets +104 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
09-12-21 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 22-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
09-11-21 | Giants -1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
09-10-21 | Brewers -140 v. Indians | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
09-09-21 | Mets -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
09-08-21 | Tigers v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
09-07-21 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
09-06-21 | Tigers v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
09-05-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
09-03-21 | Phillies -139 v. Marlins | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -139 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
09-02-21 | Brewers +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
09-01-21 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
08-31-21 | Cubs v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
08-30-21 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
08-30-21 | Cardinals v. Reds -1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
08-29-21 | Astros -1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 2-13 | Loss | -133 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
08-28-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
08-27-21 | Blue Jays v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
08-26-21 | Rangers v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
08-25-21 | Giants v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
08-24-21 | Diamondbacks -110 v. Pirates | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |