ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday at 8:08 PM ET

As we mentioned in previous analysis involving this World Series, the betting markets love the Dodgers. That makes sense too because they are, of course, a great team. But, at the same time, the Rays are very strong as well and yet don't get near the respect from the betting markets. Keep in mind the Dodgers have lost each of the last two times they have made it to the World Series and now the Dodgers are off an epic collapse in last night's Game 4 after they were 1 strike away from a 3-1 series lead. Yes, Clayton Kershaw was great in Game 1 but he has a history of World Series struggles and now the pressure is on the Dodgers after blowing last night's game. Yes, Tyler Glasnow struggled with his command in Game 1 but he is very likely to be much better in his 2nd World Series appearance after working out the jitters. Additionally, Glasnow did strike out 8 while giving up just 3 hits in that first appearance so it wasn't all bad! Also, the Rays are 11-7 in this post-season and 2 of those losses came by a single run. That means if you had the Rays +1.5 in all their post-season games you would be 13-5 for a 72% win rate. Our computer math model is reflecting great potential for an upset and, if Rays fall short, a tight loss. That being said, the value is with laying a very fair price to have the 1.5 runs on your side with underdog TB in this one. Keep in mind, last night's game would have been a one run loss for TB were it not for the winning Rays hit when they were down to their last strike. Again, value is big here with the +1.5 runs on your side. Bet the Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 runs in evening action Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Friday at 8:08 PM ET

As we mentioned in previous analysis involving this World Series, the betting markets love the Dodgers.  That makes sense too because they are, of course, a great team.  But, at the same time, the Rays are very strong as well and yet don't get near the respect from the betting markets.  Keep in mind the Dodgers have lost each of the last two times they have made it to the World Series and now Walker Buehler gets the start here and he has been dealing with blister issues which has changed his repertoire of available pitches to an extent.  Of course Tampa Bay is aware of this and plus they got some key hitters back on track in their resounding Game 2 win on Wednesday.  Now on Friday the Rays turn to Charlie Morton on the mound and he has been fantastic in this post-season and in post-season appearances ever since he came to Tampa Bay.  He is very undervalued in this spot.  Also, the Rays are 10-6 in this post-season and 2 of those losses came by a single run.  That means if you had the Rays +1.5 in all their post-season games you would be 12-4 for a 75% win rate.  Our computer math model is reflecting great potential for an upset and, if Rays fall short, a tight loss.  That being said, the value is with laying a very fair price to have the 1.5 runs on your side with underdog TB in this one.  Bet the Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 runs in evening action Friday.

NOTE: We are comfortable with this play regardless of the starting pitchers and recommend making this wager as action on the starting pitchers.ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday at 8:08 PM ET

Clayton Kershaw was back in top form last night for the Dodgers while Tyler Glasnow struggled with command of his pitches for the Rays.  The result was that it led to an ugly 8-3 loss for the Rays.  We're coming right back with Tampa Bay here.  Last night's game was the 3rd time this post-season that the Dodgers have won a game by a margin of 5 or more runs.  What happened after the first two?  Los Angeles got trounced in their very next game by a combined score of 15 to 3.  Also, yesterday was only the 4th time in this post-season that the Rays have lost a game by more than a 1-run margin.  What happened after the first three?  Tampa Bay won every single time with a combined score of 13-8 in those 3 victories.  The Dodgers are expected to go with a "bullpen game" here while the Rays are expected to start Blake Snell.  The Tampa Bay lefty can't wait to take the mound as he felt he was pulled far too early in his last start.  As a result, Snell is fired up and will be sharp here and determined to work deep into the game.  He has a low ERA in each of his seasons in the playoffs - last year and this year - and should cruise here.  That means the Rays should not need to score a lot but we do expect them to get plenty here against expected starter Tony Gonsolin (9.95 post-season ERA) and the Dodgers bullpen.  Per our computer math model this series gets evened up tonight as Snell dominates and the TB bats come back to life.  Bet the Tampa Bay Rays on the money line in evening action Wednesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 8:09 PM ET

The betting markets love the Dodgers.  That makes sense too because they are, of course, a great team.  But, at the same time, the Rays are very strong as well and yet don't get near the respect from the betting markets.  Keep in mind the Dodgers have lost each of the last two times they have made it to the World Series and Clayton Kershaw certainly has his hand in some of those struggles. Now he enters this one not 100% healthy in our opinion.  In his first start of the post-season he absolutely dominated the Brewers with 13 strikeouts in an 8-inning gem.  However, since then Kershaw has dealt with some back spasm issues and he has allowed 7 earned runs on 13 hits (including 3 homers) in his last 11 innings.  The Rays will take advantage here and the hard-throwing Tyler Glasnow could give the Dodgers some trouble.  He has allowed only 11 hits in his last 13 and 1 / 3 innings and has piled up 25 strikeouts in his 19 and 1 / 3 innings in this post-season.  The Rays are 9-5 in this post-season and 2 of those losses came by a single run.  That means if you had the Rays +1.5 in all their post-season games you would be 11-3 for a 79% win rate.  Our computer math model is reflecting great potential for an upset and, if Rays fall short, a tight loss.  That being said, the value is with laying a very small price to have the 1.5 runs on your side with underdog TB in this one.  Bet the Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 runs in evening action Tuesday.

ASA PLAY 8* ON Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves, Saturday at 4:38 PM ET

The Dodgers staved off elimination with a big win last night and, per our computer math model, they will repeat that feat on Saturday afternoon to force a Game 7 in what has been a great post-season in both this NLCS and ALCS (Game 7 tonight).  In this NLCS match-up, we like the fact that the Dodgers, despite not hitting well against Max Fried in the first meeting in this series, do have a .550 slugging percentage versus southpaws in this post-season.  Now they get a second shot at Fried and he did give up 4 earned runs in 4 innings against the Marlins in NLDS action.  As for the Dodgers, Walker Buehler gets the start here and his recent bout with wildness might actually be a good thing.  Yes, he walked too many in the first meeting with the Braves but he still had a successful overall outing and the Braves can be coerced into chasing pitches.  As the designated home team for this game (last at bat) that is another edge for the Dodgers here in what could be a tighter game.  Since the bottom of the 9th of Game 2 when the Dodgers almost came back for a shocking win, LA has outscored the Braves by a combined 28 to 16.  Even though they are still down 3-2 in this series, you can feel the momentum shift that has taken place ever since that big bottom of the 9th in Game 2.  Look for the Dodgers to ride that momentum again here in Game 6...and we will too!  Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers on the money line in afternoon action Saturday.

NOTE: We are comfortable with this play regardless of the starting pitchers announced.ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves versus Los Angeles Dodgers, Friday at 9:08 PM ET

The last 3 games between these teams have all flown over the total and have averaged 15 runs.  Our computer math model is forecasting another game that features double digits in runs scored.  This is regardless of the pitching match-up.  Keep in mind a ton of runs have been scored against the relievers, not the starters, in recent games.  That said we like the over here despite the fact that the Braves starting pitcher has not yet been announced at the time of this write-up while the Dodgers are expected to go with Dustin May.  Note that May has made 3 post-season appearances this year, including 1 against the Braves, but has pitched only 8 innings in his 5 post-season appearances the past two seasons combined.  That includes 1 start.  May is unlikely to pitch deep into this game and he is facing a Braves team that has averaged scoring 7.7 runs per game in its 3 wins in this series.  By the way the Dodgers had scored 22 runs in Game 2 and 3 combined and will bounce back here at the plate after a poor effort (2 runs) in Game 4.  Our computer math modeling shows high probability for this one getting to a dozen runs scored as each bullpen has shown some susceptibility in recent games and these are two very potent lineups.  Bet the OVER in the Braves game in late night action Friday. 

ACTION on BOTH starting pitchers! ASA PLAY 8* ON Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Houston Astros, Thursday at 5:08 PM ET

As we have mentioned in the write-up for each of our first three premium MLB plays in the ALCS (all 3 winners on Tampa Bay): the Rays were the better road team in the regular season and these games are being played at a neutral location and that certainly favors Tampa Bay.  In the regular season, the Rays went 20-11 away from Tampa Bay.  As for the Astros, they went 9-23 away from Minute Maid Park.  The Yankees were the only other team still in the post-season last round that had a losing road record in the regular season and Tampa Bay dispatched them in 5 games.  We like the Rays to now exact some revenge against the Astros team that eliminated them from the playoffs in last year's post-season.  Though Tampa Bay failed to pull off the sweep (fell just short by a 4-3 count in yesterday's Game 4), they still have been the better team overall in this series.  The Rays have made exceptional plays in the field (Astros, on the other hand, have had issues defensively) and Tampa Bay also has been solid at the plate in this post-season.  That has been a big difference with the 2020 version of TB is that they are such a much better hitting team.  No matter what starting pitchers get announced for this game keep in mind that the bullpens are likely to be heavily involved.  In fact, both teams could approach this as a "bullpen game" using their best arms available even if only for an inning or two at a time.  That is why we're comfortable releasing this play with "ACTION" on the starting pitchers because it is going to be a "team pitching effort" for both clubs in this one.  That said, in terms of the Rays solid pitching overall (including superb bullpen) they have allowed an average of only 2.3 runs per game in their 8 post-season victories.  They have the bullpen edge in this match-up and our computer math model predicts another solid win for them in this one as they advance to the World Series.  Bet the Tampa Bay Rays on the money line Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5 runs) over Atlanta Braves, Wednesday at 6:05 PM ET

The Braves pounded out 10 hits yesterday but 7 of them came from Freeman, Markakis, and Albies. Why does that matter? We are aware that Albies has had amazing success in his 4 at bats versus lefties in this post-season but he is a switch-hitter that hit only .214 against lefties in the regular season. As for Freeman and Markakis, they are both left-handed batters. The starter for the Dodgers this evening is Julio Urias and the southpaw held lefties to a .137 batting average in the regular season this year and a .198 batting average in the 2019 regular season. Urias is also a guy with a lot of post-season experience and he was great against the Braves in the regular season last year. In terms of post-season experience, Urias is now 3-1 with a 2.50 ERA in his last 18 innings spanning the last 3 playoff years combined! He rates a huge edge over the Braves Kyle Wright in this one. Yes, Wright was successful in his first-ever playoff start but it came against the Marlins in the divisional round. Wright was in major trouble in the early innings but managed to escape the jams each time. He gave up a lot of hard-hit outs. Not only did Wright benefit from some luck and some solid defense, his Braves teammates then staked him to an early big lead and it is much easier to pitch when you have a 4-run (or more!) lead for sure. That said, Wright will quickly be brought back down to earth by this Dodgers lineup that nearly rallied for the huge comeback win against the Braves bullpen late in yesterday's game. Do not lose sight of the fact that Wright is 2-7 with a 6.22 ERA in his MLB career and that includes his 19 regular season appearances (12 starts). This is a very tough spot for him and it is why the Dodgers are such a big money line favorite here as they look to respond in this 0-2 series hole! Look for them to do just that and, per our computer math model, Los Angeles wins this one by multiple runs and the value play (-120 range) is with laying the 1.5 runs on the run line in this one. The Dodgers haven't lost 3 straight games since August of 2019! Since that time LA has gone 5-0 when entering a game on a losing streak of 2 games and only 1 of the 5 wins came by less than a 2-run margin. In fact, the Dodgers 43 wins this year in the regular season featured 36 (or 84%) by a margin of 2 or more runs! They have continued that 80% trend in the post-season as 4 of their 5 wins have come by at least 2 runs in these playoffs. For the Braves, 19 of their 25 losses (76%) in the regular season came by 2 or more runs. Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in early evening action Wednesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Houston Astros, Tuesday at 8:40 PM ET

As we have mentioned in the write-up for each of our first two MLB plays in the ALCS (both winners on Tampa Bay): the Rays were the better road team in the regular season and these games are being played at a neutral location and that certainly favors Tampa Bay.  In the regular season, the Rays went 20-11 away from Tampa Bay.  As for the Astros, they went 9-23 away from Minute Maid Park.  The Yankees were the only other team still in the post-season last round that had a losing road record in the regular season and Tampa Bay dispatched them in 5 games.  We like the Rays to now exact some revenge against the Astros team that eliminated them from the playoffs in last year's post-season.  Houston continues to waste scoring chances as they have been devoid of clutch hitting so far in this series.  Those struggles are likely to continue today against a solid Rays starting pitcher who is also backed by a quality bullpen.  Tampa Bay is expected to start Ryan Yarbrough in this one.  The Rays southpaw held Houston to 0 earned runs in 3 innings of post-season work last year.  In regular season action in 2018 and 2019 Yarbrough has held the Astros to just 4 earned runs on only 11 hits in 12 and 1 / 3 innings.  Houston hasn't faced him and yet in 2020 and the Astros certainly appear to be at a disadvantage on the mound for this one.  Houston starts Jose Urquidy in this game and he has struggled badly as he allowed 4 homers in just 4 and 1 / 3 innings versus the A's in ALDS action.  In terms of the Rays solid pitching overall (including superb bullpen) they have allowed an average of only 2.3 runs per game in their 7 post-season victories.  They have the bullpen edge in this match-up and our computer math model predicts another solid win for them in this one.  Bet the Tampa Bay Rays on the money line in evening action Tuesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Houston Astros, Monday at 4:07 PM ET

As we mentioned in the write-up for yesterday's MLB play (a winner on Tampa Bay): the Rays were the better road team in the regular season and these games are being played at a neutral location and that certainly favors Tampa Bay.  In the regular season, the Rays went 20-11 away from Tampa Bay.  As for the Astros, they went 9-23 away from Minute Maid Park.  The Yankees were the only other team still in the post-season last round that had a losing road record in the regular season and Tampa Bay dispatched them in 5 games.  We like the Rays to now exact some revenge against the Astros team that eliminated them from the playoffs in last year's post-season.  Tampa Bay is expected to start Charlie Morton (a former Astro) in this one and he is 3-0 with a 1.20 ERA in his 3 post-season starts since coming to the Rays.  That included a dominating start against the Astros in last year's post-season in which he struck out 9 in 5 innings.  The Astros certainly appear to be at a disadvantage on the mound for this one.  Houston starts Lance McCullers in this game and he has struggled badly away from home this season.  Including his post-season outing, he has given up 28 runs (23 earned) in 27 and 1 / 3 innings away from Houston this season!  In terms of the Rays solid pitching overall (including superb bulpen) they have allowed an average of only 2.3 runs per game in their 6 post-season victories.  They have the bullpen edge in this match-up and our computer math model predicts another solid win for the favorite in this one.  Bet the Tampa Bay Rays on the money line in afternoon action Monday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Houston Astros, Sunday at 7:37 PM ET

The Rays were the better road team in the regular season and these games are being played at a neutral location and that certainly favors Tampa Bay.  In the regular season, the Rays went 20-11 away from Tampa Bay.  As for the Astros, they went 9-23 away from Minute Maid Park.  The Yankees were the only other team still in the post-season last round that had a losing road record in the regular season and Tampa Bay dispatched them in 5 games.  We like the Rays to now exact some revenge against the Astros team that eliminated them from the playoffs in last year's post-season.  Tampa Bay is expected to start Blake Snell in this one and he absolutely can give the Rays plenty of workload in this one.  The lefty is coming off a rough start against the Yankees but still has a 2.81 ERA in his post-season career and that included 3 games against the Astros last season.  The Astros certainly appear to be at a disadvantage on the mound for this one.  Houston starts Framber Valdez in this game and he has been solid this year but is coming off a rough 2019.  He still is nowhere near the experience level of Snell and now he finds himself pitching in the ALCS.  In terms of the Rays solid pitching, they have allowed an average of only 2.6 runs per game in their 5 post-season victories.  They have the bullpen edge in this match-up and our computer math model predicts a solid win for the favorite in this one.  Bet the Tampa Bay Rays on the money line in early evening action Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) vs New York Yankees, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET

The Rays were the better road team in the regular season and these games are being played at a neutral location and that certainly favors Tampa Bay.  Up 2-1 in this series and having won 2 straight games, Tampa Bay is now looking to punch their ticket to the ALCS with another win Thursday evening.  In the regular season, the Rays went 20-11 away from Tampa Bay.  As for the Yankees, they went 11-18 away from Yankee Stadium.  The Astros are the only other team still in the post-season that had a losing road record in the regular season.  We like the Rays to close this one out on Thursday.  Tampa Bay is expected to use Ryan Thompson as an opener in this game but Ryan Yarbrough is projected to get the bulk of the work after Thompson makes an early exit.  We'll focus on Yarbrough as a result.  The southpaw holds a big edge here with the Yankees having not faced him in the regular season!  Yarbrough went at least 6 innings in 3 of his last 4 starts so, once he comes in for Thompson, he absolutely can give the Rays plenty of workload in this one.  The lefty is 28-16 with a 3.94 ERA in his MLB career and has gone 1-0 and pitched well thus far in post-season action - all in 2019.  The Yankees certainly appear to be at a disadvantage on the mound for this one.  Jordan Montgomery is projected to get the start here and the left-hander struggled badly on the road this season.  He went 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA in his 4 outings away from home.  Also, he faced the Rays last month and, even though that start was at home in the Bronx, Montgomery struggled badly with 4 earned runs allowed in a game in which he couldn't even complete 1 inning of work.  This will be his post-season debut and it is unlikely to go well as Tampa Bay, known more for their pitching than their hitting, has actually gotten their sticks going and has scored 7 or more runs in 3 of the last 4 games.  In terms of the Rays solid pitching, they have allowed an average of only 3 runs per game in their 4 post-season victories.  Their lone loss was a 4-3 game before the Yankees exploded in the top of the 9th for 5 runs in Game 1 of this series.  That seems like a distant memory now after how TB has played in these last two games and our computer math model predicts a solid underdog win in this one.  Bet the Tampa Bay Rays on the money line for a TOP PLAY in early evening action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Houston Astros versus Oakland A's, Wednesday at 3:35 PM ET

Yesterday's game was 5-2 through the half-way point of the game but then stalled out with no more runs scored.  Considering Wednesday's pitching match-up, we like the odds that this one pushes to a higher double-digit total in runs like what we saw in Game 1 of this series.  That game totaled 15 runs and was over the total by the top of the 6th inning.  Consider that in this match-up there is a ton of pressure on a young starting pitcher for the A's.  It is Jesus Luzardo making the start and the rookie southpaw struggled in his outing against the White Sox in the divisional series.  If he thought that was pressure-packed, how about now facing an Astros team that is loaded with post-season experience?  Per our computer math models, this one does not end well for Luzardo.  The good news for Oakland however is that Astros pitcher Jose Urquidy is also projected to struggle here.  He has had some success in the post-season in limited action but Urquidy faces an A's team that had scored at least 5 runs in 3 straight games prior to yesterday's 5-2 loss.  Also, the last 4 times the Athletics have entered a game off 2 or more consecutive losses, they have gone 4-0 and scored an average of 7.3 runs per game.  Oakland's lineup responds here but their own pitching struggles and that sends this one into double digits in runs scored.  Bet the OVER in the Astros game in afternoon action Wednesday. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Atlanta Braves (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 2:08 PM ET

Give the Marlins credit for getting by a Cubs team struggling at the plate but now they face a tough Braves team.  Lets not forget that Miami started this season 7-1.  That means they went 24-28 the rest of the way in the regular season.  Of course that is a big reason the Braves are a -200 favorite on the money line in this game.  Where we get the value in Game One of this series is by grabbing Atlanta on the run line.  We'll lay the -1.5 runs to get the plus money return (currently +105) in this one.  Note that the Marlins 29 regular season losses this year featured 21 by 2 or more runs.  The Braves 35 wins featured 24 by  2 or more runs.  The point is that the vast majority of wins for the Braves and losses for the Marlins came by a multi-run margin.  The Braves have the better lineup, the better bullpen and now let us take a look at the starting pitchers in this one.  Fried for Atlanta against Alcantara for Miami.  Alcantara compiled a 5.40 ERA in his day game starts this season and this is a pitcher that amassed a 6-14 record in 2019.  The Braves Fried has much more post-season experience in comparison with Alcantara and also he is a combined 24-6 the past two seasons.  Fried went 17-6 last season and he is 7-0 this season with a 2.25 ERA.  Per our computer math model this one is a blowout win for the favorite.  Bet the Atlanta Braves -1.5 runs in early afternoon action Tuesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Oakland Athletics versus Houston Astros, Monday at 4:07 PM ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA

Not only did A's starter Chris Bassitt go 3-0 with an 0.34 ERA in his four September starts, he also dominated the Astros the two times he faced them on the West Coast. Although this game is not in Oakland like those two outings were - it is a neutral site series in LA at Dodgers Stadium - the location still favors the Athletics. Also, the Astros offense had a down season and finished 20th in the majors for team batting average while the A's were even worse and finished 25th in the majors. Runs will be at a premium in this one as Oakland faces Lance McCullers in Game One. The Houston right-hander struck out 24 in 17 and 2 / 3 innings over his final 3 starts of the regular season and did not allow an earned run in any of those 3 outings. Also, in his lone outing against Oakland this season, McCullers held the Athletics to just 1 earned run in 6 innings. More of the same on tap here this afternoon per our computer math model. Bet the UNDER in the A's game in afternoon action Monday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON St Louis Cardinals Money Line (+) @ San Diego Padres, Thursday at 7:08 PM ET

Not only did the Cardinals win yesterday's game 7-4 they outhit the Padres 13 to 8. Now Adam Wainwright starts for the Cardinals and they have a shot to win this series with a sweep and avoid a decisive Game 3 tomorrow. Per our computer math modeling, the Cardinals have strong probability for a sizable road win in this one and are offering excellent underdog line value. Wainwright has been fantastic in afternoon starts and, even with the time change on this game it is still a day game (4 PM Pacific) in San Diego. Wainwright is a combined 9-1 with a 1.66 ERA in his 11 day game starts the past two seasons combined! Opponents hit just .134 against Wainwright in his 3 afternoon starts this year. He'll be opposed by the Padres Zach Davies. Although it was a respectable season for him in 2020, Davies has a match-up issue here in our opinion. The Cardinals are very familiar with Davies because his entire career (111 starts over 5 seasons) had been spent with another NL Central team (the Brewers) prior to this season. From 2017 to 2019 Davies went 1-3 against the Cardinals with a 6.31 ERA and gave up 50 hits in 35 and 1 / 3 innings! This is not a good match-up for him and Wainwright gets the better of this one and the St Louis hitters carry momentum from yesterday's big win. Grab the road dog in this one! Bet the St Louis Cardinals on the money line Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Cleveland Indians Money Line (-) vs New York Yankees, Wednesday at 7:08 PM ET

The Yankees had a rare offensive explosion on the road yesterday. Yes the Yankees had a huge season swinging the sticks at home this year but they were a different team when on the road. That, in fact, is a key reason that New York entered yesterday's match-up on a 6-17 run in road games! Now, after that huge (and rare) road win for the Yankees, there is a lot of value with the home dog in this bounce back spot. Cleveland was on an 11-5 run in home games heading into yesterday's action. The Indians had ended the regular season on an overall 9-2 run their last 11 games! After getting embarrassed 12-3 at home, look for Cleveland to respond here. Carlos Carrasco gets the start for the Indians and he is a strikeout pitcher. The Yankees are known for striking out too much at the plate (especially on the road) and Carrasco struck out 50 in 38 and 2 / 3 innings at Progressive Field this season. He also has a 1.64 ERA in his two career post-season starts. Masahiro Tanaka gets the start for the Yankees here and has enjoyed post-season success in his career. However, Tanaka got roughed up in each of his two road starts in September and our computer math modeling is forecasting a similar result here. Tanaka allowed 9 runs (5 earned) on 14 hits in 9 and 1 / 3 innings in his two road starts this month. Grab the home dog in this one! Bet the Cleveland Indians on the money line in early evening action Wednesday.

ASA PLAY 8* ON Oakland A's Money Line (-) vs Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 3:10 PM ET

Oakland lost 4-1 yesterday but they faced the ace of the White Sox. As a home team and off a loss in which they were held to just 1 run, the Athletics went a perfect 4-0 in the regular season. They had the one late season game played in Oakland where they were the road team against the Mariners (played in California due to smoke in Seattle area) where this angle would have applied but did not as the A's were not the designated home team. So, again, a perfect 4-0 record in this situation and Oakland starter Chris Bassitt getting a shot at the team that drafted him in 2011. This is a nice set-up. Bassitt had a 2..29 ERA in the regular season including a minuscule 0.34 ERA in a spectacular September. The White Sox have pounded lefties this season but now face a tough right-hander. Look for Bassitt to get the job done here while the A's lineup inflicts some damage against Chicago's Dallas Keuchel. The White Sox southpaw has made a couple starts since being out with back spasms and overall soreness in his back but might not be quite 100% healthy yet and we'll take advantage with the short price on the Athletics at home in this bounce back must win spot. Lay it! Bet the Oakland A's on the money line in afternoon action Wednesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays, Tuesday at 5 PM ET

There is a unique element in this series that is not present in any of the other series involving the 16 teams that have made the post-season.  With the unique scheduling element this season the only opponents that teams faced in their own league were in their own division.  Out of all 8 playoff series to begin the post-season this is the only one that pits divisional foes.  We feel that will lead to more offense in this one because these teams played 60 games this season and 10 were against each other.  They know the other teams bullpens and, in the case of Game 1, we like the odds of both starters getting a little roughed up too!  The Blue Jays are starting Matt Shoemaker and he made only 6 starts this season and half of those were against the Rays!  In his last two starts against Tampa Bay, Shoemaker allowed 5 earned runs in 9 innings and the damage could have been even worse as the Rays hit 3 homers against him in those 9 innings!  Tampa Bay starter Blake Snell is a  great pitcher but there is reason to believe he could struggle a bit here against this Blue Jays team loaded with dangerous hitters.  Toronto will be facing Snell for the 3rd time in 2 months and getting extra looks at a hurler tends to favor the hitters.  Additionally, Snell struggled in 2 of his 4 September starts.  Also, in his last 3 starts at home, the Rays southpaw gave up 7 runs (6 earned) on 15 hits (including a pair of homers) and walked 6 in 16 innings.  Those aren't horrible numbers but they aren't great either.  With a low total of 7.5 runs here, our computer math model indicates strong value on the over as the projection is closer to the 9 to 10 run range in this one (average of 9.5 projected here per the modeling).  We'll go with the over here and like the unique situation in this match-up favoring the hitters in comparison with the other series.  Bet the OVER in the Rays game in early evening action Tuesday. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Miami Marlins @ New York Yankees, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET

Final day of the regular season and one always has to exercise caution in situations like this in terms of lineups.  In this case, there is reason to believe that both lineups will be solid.  The Marlins rested some regulars yesterday and, after that 11-4 loss, would like to win today to have positive momentum heading into the playoffs plus to finish the regular season with a winning record.  As for the Yankees, they should also be playing all their regulars today as they are still hoping to secure the #5 seed in the post-season.  The Yankees rolled to an 11-4 win yesterday and all 11 runs came against the Marlins bullpen.  That is bad news for Miami's pitching staff today because Jose Urena (0-3, 6.00 ERA) is only expected to go 2 to 3 innings in this one so the Marlins pen will be exposed again.  The Yankees have been knocking the cover off the ball in home games in recent weeks and that continues here.  New York will need to score a lot too because Yankees starter  Clarke Schmidt is a rookie with a 7.71 ERA at the MLB level.  He has already had command issues in his limited MLB action as he has walked 3 and hit a batter for 4 "free passes" in just 2 and 1 / 3 innings.  This is a tough spot for Schmidt and the Marlins will take advantage.  At the same time, in terms of bullpen usage, you know the Yankees would be wise to save their best arms for the upcoming playoff action.  As a result, this one should soar over the total and our computer math model analytics are pointing strongly in that direction for this match-up.  Bet the OVER in the Yankees game in afternoon action Sunday. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET

The wind will be blowing out toward left field quite strongly for this one. That is bad news for Cubs southpaw Jon Lester. Though he has good numbers recently he has been quite fortunate in those starts and he now faces a White Sox team that has a .527 slugging percentage versus left-handed hurlers this season. That is good for the #1 spot in the majors and our computer math modeling projects a huge game at the plate for the White Sox in this one. The Cubs should also enjoy a big game at the plate too as they face Dane Dunning. The White Sox right-hander is a rookie and still enduring some growing pains as a 25-year old hurler at the MLB level. Dunning allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings in his most recent start which was against the Indians. Now Dunning faces a Cubs team that has hit 58 homers against right-handed pitching this season. That ranks them 5th in the National League and Dunning has allowed homers in each of his last two starts. The Cubs exploded for 10 runs in yesterday's win and have scored an average of 9 runs per game in their last 3 road wins. Look for the White Sox bats to bounce back big however after being shut out yesterday. The White Sox had won 15 of their last 17 home games prior to yesterday's ugly home loss. In those 17 games, the White Sox scored an average of 6.2 runs per game! Bet the OVER in the White Sox game in early evening action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays, Friday at 6:37 PM ET

The Blue Jays clinched a playoff spot with a win last night but they can still improve their playoff positioning so we expect their normal lineup tonight against an Orioles team that has been relegated to playing the role of spoiler.  However, when you don't have playoff pressure on you it oftentimes brings out the best in a lineup and Baltimore erupted for 13 runs in their win at Boston last night.  The Blue Jays have been playing their home games in Buffalo this season and Sahlen Field has played out as a very hitter friendly ballpark.  It will be another mild evening in upstate NY tonight and the bats should rule in this one after a rare low-scoring game here last night (4-1) when the Jays hosted the Yankees.  This total opened up at a 10 and has moved down to a 9.5 which has led to even more line value with the over in this one.  We are not really concerned with whom the starting pitchers are in this match-up as we do expect to see plenty of bullpen from each team in this one.  But the Orioles slated starter is Jorge Lopez and he is facing a surging Blue Jays team that enters this game having won 4 of 5 games and scoring an average of 7.2 runs per game in those contests.  Lopez has an 8.18 ERA in his 4 road appearances this season.  The Blue Jays are starting Taijuan Walker and he is off a strong start but it came against a quickly fading Phillies team.  Prior to that outing Walker was hit hard in his prior start and he had major issues with command of his pitches in the start that preceded that one.  He has a low ERA but has not pitched as well at that ERA would indicate.  Just recently Walker got rocked by the Yankees but was only charged with 1 earned run.  The Orioles faced him about 4 weeks ago and the 2nd look likely improves the results especially after last night's blowout win at Fenway Park.  This one has the makings of a slugfest at Sahlen Field in Buffalo, NY.  Bet the OVER in the Blue Jays game in early evening action Friday. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays, Thursday at 6:37 PM ET

The Blue Jays can clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight.  The Yankees are still battling for possible home field edge in their first round playoff series so they are motivated too.  After getting blasted last night by a score of 14-1, look for the Yankees to respond here.  They made 4 errors in last night's game plus loaded the bases with nobody out in the top of the 5th but failed to score!  That was when the game was still 5-1 and well within reach.  The Blue Jays have been playing their home games in Buffalo this season and Sahlen Field has played out as a very hitter friendly ballpark.  It will be another mild evening in upstate NY tonight and the bats should again rule in this one.  This total opened up at a 10 and has moved down to a 9.5 which has led to even more line value with the over in this one.  8 of the Yankees last 9 games have totaled 11 or more runs.  In fact, those 9 games have averaged a total of 14.8 runs per game and we would not be surprised to see this one get into the range of 15 runs as well.  The last time the Yankees Jordan Montgomery faced the Blue Jays he also was opposed by Toronto's Hyun Jin Ryu.  That game ended up a 12-7 Jays win.  Ryu got rocked in that one and he is 0-2 with an 8.80 ERA in his 3 career starts against the Yankees.  Montgomery also got rocked in that game and he has a 6.00 ERA in his 8 night starts this season.  Also, the Yankees southpaw is 0-1 with an 8.25 ERA in his road starts this season.  He is facing a surging Blue Jays team that hit him well earlier this month plus enters this game having won 3 of 4 games and scoring an average of 8 runs per game in those contests.  This one has the makings of another slugfest at Sahlen Field in Buffalo, NY.  Bet the OVER in Toronto in early evening action Thursday. 

ASA PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET

The Pirates start Trevor Williams in this one.  He is 1-8 with a 6.70 ERA.  Those numbers are bad enough but what is also concerning for Williams is that he is trending the wrong direction.  In his last 5 starts he has a 9.59 ERA and has allowed 11 homers in the 25 and 2 / 3 innings spanning those 5 outings.  The Pirates have lost 9 of his last 10 starts and, per our computer math model, he will get pounded here.  What has led to line value with this total is that recent games have stayed under the total involving these teams and Kyle Hendricks is on the mound for the Cubs.  Those factors resulted in this total opening up at 8 runs which is far too low in our opinion.  The Cubs Hendricks is a different pitcher on the road compared to at home.  While he has dominated at Wrigley Field this season, Hendricks is just 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA in road outings and opponents have hit .295 against him away from home. The Pirates did see him in his first start this month and that could also help the Pittsburgh bats here.  The Pirates have not been scoring a lot of runs lately but they could surprise at home against the Cubs here with some extra momentum after yesterday's 3-2 win.  Chicago was 7-3 in their last 10 prior to yesterday's loss and scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in those 7 wins.  They should have no trouble with the offerings of Williams here and we're taking advantage of the low total in this one.  Bet the OVER in Pittsburgh in early evening action Wednesday. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET

Yesterday's game saw the Marlins score 3 in the top of the first only to see the Braves answer with 4 in the bottom of the first.  7 runs after just 1 inning.  Easy over, right?  Nope.  The game stalled out, for the most part, after that early surge and it ended up not going over the total as Atlanta went on to a 5-4 win.  That sets this one up nicely as it keeps this match-up off the "radar screen" of people who play streaks with totals in MLB.  The fact is the Braves are one of the top hitting teams in the majors and the pitching match-up Tuesday sets this one up nicely to be a slugfest.  Jose Urena, Miami's starting pitcher tonight, is 2-8 with a 6.55 ERA in his career against the Braves.  Also, Urena just faced Atlanta 2 weeks ago and struggled in that outing.  He is now a combined 4-12 with a 5.33 ERA the past two seasons combined.  He is just getting going this year as he only returned to the rotation earlier this month but in his two starts against NL East teams (lineups familiar with him) he allowed 9 runs (8 earned) in 9 and 1 / 3 innings.  The Braves start Bryse Wilson here.  He has only made 13 appearances (5 starts) at the MLB level and the results are not impressive.  Wilson has a 7.01 ERA and opponents have hit .319 against at the MLB level.  The Marlins just saw him for 4 innings earlier this month and though Wilson survived it he was pitching in and out of jams.  More of the same expected here per our computer math model but this time the Marlins do more damage at the plate.  With both starters hit hard yesterday, each team used a lot of bullpen in yesterday's game which also helps the cause in terms of some potential bullpen struggles in the forecast today after these starters each make an early exit!  Bet the OVER in Atlanta in early evening action Tuesday. 

ASA PLAY 8* ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Washington Nationals, Monday at 6:05 PM ET

We are aware of the Phillies Bryce Harper dealing with back stiffness. If anything, that will only help us in terms of line value if it ends up being announced that he will not be in the lineup tonight. As it stands now, we are comfortable with the -150 price range on the Phillies in this one as this game is a huge pitching mismatch. Also, Harper is hitting a poor .176 against Anibal Sanchez in his career so if he misses this game it is not a key factor one way or the other. What is a key factor is that Sanchez is 1-5 with an 8.63 ERA in his night starts and having a very rough season overall in 2020. Also, he faced the Phillies earlier this season and was rocked for 4 runs (3 earned) on 9 hits in 3 and 1 / 3 innings. With 9 hits allowed and only 10 outs recorded , the damage could have been even worse for Sanchez. As it was, it definitely still falls into the ugly category. Now he faces a Phillies team that is off a loss that followed a 3 game winning streak. Washington is off a huge win Sunday in Game 2 of their double-header but the loss in Game 1 was the Nationals 18th in their last 27 games. The Nationals are at home for this one but are just 9-16 at home this season and they are taking on the man that has become the Phillies top pitcher this season. Yes their #2 Zack Wheeler is actually out-pitching #1 Aaron Nola on the year. Wheeler is 4-0 with a 2.62 ERA on the season and he also pitches deep into games which is a key since the Phillies bullpen has had issues this season. In fact Wheeler has averaged 6.5 innings per start this season and that means getting 7 innings here can be expected. He pitched 6 and 2/ 3 scoreless innings against Washington earlier this month and held the Nats to just 3 hits in that gem. Per our computer math model, another great start from Wheeler is expected here and the Phillies (whether with or without Harper) pound the struggling Sanchez. Lay it! Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line in early evening action Monday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers, Friday at 7:05 PM ET

Chilly weather in Detroit this evening.  That is driving this total lower.  However, the wind actually will be blowing out to right field as a result of the cooler conditions and we view this as a line value opportunity with the total dropping to an 8.5 even though it may not be a surprise to see both starting pitchers get roughed up here.  The Indians start Zach Plesac in this one.  He is having a great season but is off a rough road start in which he allowed 3 homers.  He has now given up 6 homers in his 26 innings on the road this season.  While he has dominated at home this season, Plesac has a tendency to make more mistake pitches on the road and the Tigers are 7-4 in their last 11 home games and scored an average of 6.1 runs per game in those 7 wins.  The Tigers start Michael Fulmer here and he is having a very rough season.  We expect the Indians to do plenty of damage at the plate in this one.  Fulmer is winless in NINE starts this season and has a 9.27 ERA with opponents hitting .378 against him on the year!  He has allowed 9 earned runs in 5 innings spanning his last two starts.  Fulmer faced the Indians in back to back starts in August and neither went well as he was tattooed for 8 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work.  Per our computer math model, more of the same is expected here as Cleveland enters this game 13-7 in their last 20 road games and scoring an average of 5.4 runs per game.  In games at Detroit, the Indians have scored an average of 7.8 runs per game in 4 road games.  The Tigers bullpen is one of the worst in the majors while the Cleveland bullpen, though great overall this season, has had some struggles over the past week and a half.  Bet the OVER in Detroit in early evening action Friday. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

Our information below includes Chase Anderson as the starter. Even though Julian Merryweather is now expected to get the start, he is only working as an opener. The expectation is that Anderson is still going to get the bulk of the workload in this one. By the way, Merryweather has averaged less than 2 innings per outing. Also, for what it is worth, he has given up 4 earned runs on 7 hits in less than 5 innings of work spanning his last 3 outings. As you can see, Merryweather is unlikely to go unscathed here and then Anderson comes in and gets roughed up. Here is the original write-up: They Yankees suddenly are one of the hottest lineups in baseball. New York has won 7 straight games and has averaged scoring 8.7 runs per game during this hot streak. That is even with two of those 7 wins being 7-inning games (they were part of a double-header). Certainly the Yankees bats should stay hot here as they have been crushing the Blue Jays bullpen in recent meetings and could get into that pen early tonight. That's because the Jays starting pitcher, Chase Anderson, has averaged less than 4 innings per appearance in his 7 starts this season. Anderson has a 13.50 ERA in his two starts this month and facing a red hot Yankees lineup is unlikely to help him get back on track! The Blue Jays also should contribute well to this total. Toronto has averaged a respectable 5.3 runs per game their last 10 games. The Jays will face Masahiro Tanaka in this one and he has been great in his road starts this season but actually has a 4.57 ERA in his 5 home starts on the year. The Jays have some hitters who have given Tanaka some trouble through the years and have plenty of familiarity with him. 7 of the Blue Jays last 10 games have totaled 10 or more runs and, per our computer math model, this one reaches into the double digits in runs as well. Bet the OVER in New York Yankees in early evening action Thursday.

ASA MLB TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Colorado Rockies versus Oakland A's, Wednesday at 3:10 PM ET

Last night's game was an unusually low-scoring game by Coors Field standards.  Based on this pitching match-up, the teams are likely to make up for it this afternoon.  Perhaps last night was impacted by Oakland's travel situation as they had just been in Seattle for a double-header on Sunday.  Either way, the bats can be expected to come back to life here.  Oakland takes advantage of facing German Marquez as he is known for struggling in his home starts.  2.64 ERA on the road and 6.03 ERA at home this season for Marquez.  An aberration?  No,not at all.  Last season, Marquez had a 3.67 ERA in away games and a 6.26 ERA as a host!  More struggles expected here and his counterpart, Mike Fiers, also expected to get pounded in this one.  The A's are 7-2 in his starts this season but run support has certainly played a role in that.  Fiers has been hit at a .277 clip and has a 5.06 ERA on the season.  Those numbers, of course, include zero starts at hitter-friendly Coors Field!  That said, a day game in Denver brings out the best in the Rockies lineup and Fiers will end up throwing batting practice in this one!  Per our computer math model, it looks like runs will absolutely be coming in bunches in this one and we expect to see some crooked numbers (i.e. teams scoring more than 1 run per half-inning!) being put on the scoreboard early and often in this one.  Bet the OVER in Colorado in afternoon action Wednesday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) vs New York Mets, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET

Rick Porcello starts for the Mets here and he is 1-4 with a 6.07 ERA in his 9 starts this season with the opposition batting .318 against him.  He'll be facing the Phillies for the 3rd time already this season which won't help him and he gave up 4 earned runs on 10 hits in 6 innings when he faced them at Citizens Bank Park last month.  The Phillies enter this game off 3 straight losses but only have had one losing streak go longer than 3 games this season.  In other words, odds favor Philadelphia snapping the streak tonight and this is particularly true with Jake Arrieta on the mound.  With Wheeler and Howard hurt, Arrieta joins Nola as being extremely important to the staff and the veteran has stepped up. The Phillies let his last start slip away as they were up 6-3 after he exited the game.  Now he faces the same Mets team he beat in the start that preceded that.  Arrieta held them to 2 earned runs in 7 innings while striking out 7.  Now he gets them at home where he has historically pitched well since coming to the Phillies.  Last season he held opponents to a .256 batting average at home and had a 5-3 record.  The prior season Arrieta had a 3.64 ERA and held opponents to a .238 batting average in his home outings.  Arrieta had a rare poor outing at home in his most recent start in Philly but each of his other 3 starts since late August have been solid with a total of just 6 earned runs allowed in nearly 18 innings spanning those 3 outings.  More of the same here and, per our computer math model, the Phillies bats pound Porcello in this one.  The result is a home blowout and that makes the home dog a value play here.  Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line in early evening action Tuesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles, Monday at 7:35 PM ET

Touki Toussaint gets the start for the Braves here.  He is coming back from being optioned to Atlanta's alternate training site.  That was due to all of his struggles and we don't expect Toussaint to magically bounce back as a result. The fact is Toussaint went 4-0 last season but mostly worked out of the bullpen and that unblemished record did have a blemish on it in the form of a 5.62 ERA in his 24 appearances (1 start).  This season he has an even worse 7.98 ERA and that includes a 6.11 ERA over his 4 starts.  Historically Toussaint has been much worse on the road in comparison to at home so one could legitimately question why the Braves are bringing him back for a road start instead of a home outing.  We question it too and, per our computer math model, projections are showing that he will get crushed tonight.  Computer math model projections also are anticipating a rough night for Orioles starter Jorge Lopez in this one.  He is facing a red hot Braves lineup that continues to pile up the runs and scored 8 in their win at Washington yesterday.  Lopez has a 6.38 ERA this season and has been consistent but not in a good way. The fact is that Lopez is trending very close to his career major league numbers and this is a guy who is 8-15 with a 5.95 ERA in his 66 MLB appearances (30 starts).  We look for the Braves to stay red hot at the plate and pound him and this one gets crazy in a hurry.  We get some line value because there will be a little breeze blowing in and that is part of the reason this total made an early drop from a 10.5 to a 10 and we won't hesitate in taking advantage of the line move.  Bet the OVER in Baltimore in early evening action Monday. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET

After yesterday's 2-1 Yankees win look for the bats to come right back to life here.  This is an ideal set up as each of the starting pitchers involved in this one had been struggling but now each enters this start off their best outing of the year thus far.  In other words, a regression to the mean can be expected here.  Look for things to quickly return to normal for the Orioles John Means and the Yankees JA Happ.  Means, despite a strong start against the Mets in his last appearance, is still just 1-3 with a 6.58 ERA this season.  Also, he has allowed 7 homers in the 18 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last 4 outings!  The Yankees crushed him for 5 earned runs in just 2 and 1 / 3 innings in his only start against them this year.  New York's Happ, prior to a strong outing in his most recent start, had allowed 4 earned runs in 3 of his first 5 starts this season.  That included allowing 4 earned runs in 4 innings against the Orioles in his lone appearance against them this season.  Per our computer math model, both pitchers struggle again in this match-up and it goes soaring over the total in complete contrast to yesterday's pitchers' duel.  Bet the OVER in the New York Yankees game in early afternoon action Sunday. 

ASA PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals, Saturday at 6:05 PM ET

Yesterday's game totaled 15 runs and went 12 innings.  Both of those factors (both teams hitting and both teams using up bullpen arms) are good signs for what to expect today.  Rookie Ian Anderson goes for the Braves.  He was great in his first start, then got hit some in his second start, then couldn't find the plate in his third start.  This is the norm with rookies trying to find their way in their first taste of the majors and now it is another road start against a quality lineup in this one.  The Nationals have averaged scoring 6.9 runs per game their last 7 games.  The Braves have also been a tear at the plate and their goes back even further.  Over their last 13 games, Atlanta has scored 6 or more runs in all but 3 of those games.  Even taking out the two outliers (a shutout and a game in which they scored a ridiculous 29 runs!), the Braves averaged 7.5 runs per game the other dozen games.  Atlanta has plenty of experience against Patrick Corbin and just crushed him last week so this is not a good match-up for the Nationals left-hander.  The Braves hit Corbin hard and get to the southpaw again this time and then get into a suspect Washington bullpen.  Per our computer math model, this total of only 9 runs (and some 8.5 out there) is a case of substance over form and the bats should be the story of the day in this one.  Bet the OVER in Washington in early evening action Saturday. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5 runs) over Boston Red Sox, Friday at 6:40 PM ET

Stop the  presses...the Red Sox (16-29 this season) have won 2 straight games!  All kidding aside it has been a very rough season for them and note that Boston is 1-5 this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games.  As you can deduce from that, the longest winning streak is 3 games for the Red Sox this season.  They have a chance to match that here but they won't.  This one is a complete mismatch which is why the Rays are priced as a more than a $2 favorite on the money line here.  The value is in the run line in what is set up perfectly to be a home blowout.  The Red Sox, prior to these back to back wins, were mired in a stretch that had seen them lose 20 of 28 games.  15 of those 20 defeats came by a margin of 2 or more runs and per our computer math modeling, this one will too!  Blake Snell is the Rays ace and he takes the mound off his very first loss of the season and with his team on a 3-game losing streak.  There is not better time to grab an ace and Snell should dominate Boston.  The Red Sox hitters that have experience against him have a combined .158 batting average with 0 homers and 2 RBI in 76 bats.  That includes holding Xander Bogaerts (Boston's most feared hitter) to just 3 hits in 23 at bats for a .130 batting average!  Snell went 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in the month of August before losing his first September start which was also his first loss of the season.  He struck out 8 in 5 innings and his "stuff" on the mound is just fine.  His counterpart tonight is Boston's Andrew Triggs and he is really more of an opener.  He is unlikely to pitch deep into this game and has a 9.95 ERA this season and had a 5.23 ERA in his most recent season pitched - 2018.  That means what matters here most, with Triggs not working deep, is overall pitching of the Red Sox.  That said, note that Boston is dead last in the majors with a 6.10 ERA on the year.  This one is all Rays!  Per our computer math model, the home team is poised to win in a rout as they hammer the Red Sox pitching plus ride a strong start from Snell and the best value here is with utilizing the run line to get them at a short price by laying the 1.5 runs.  Lay it!  Bet the Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs in early evening action Friday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ Miami Marlins, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET

The Marlins didn't just lose yesterday, they got blasted.  Miami lost 29-9 at Atlanta in a game with a score that would make you think it was the Dolphins and Falcons playing in NFL rather than the Marlins and Braves in MLB.  In any event, it was the 8th loss in the last 13 games for the Marlins as their early season hot run is a distant memory now.  Coming into the season not much was expected from Miami and, indeed, they are starting to show their true colors.  As for the Phillies, they were off yesterday, and have been making a strong surge up the same NL East standings in recent weeks and bypassing the Marlins along the way.  Miami is now back home for this game but they are a horrific 2-9 in home games this season.  Philadelphia is off a double-header split on Tuesday.  They lost the 2nd game but entered that contest having won 12 of their past 15 games!  Also, the Phillies have won 3 of their last 4 when off a loss.  Philadelphia starts Jake Arrieta here.  He was fantastic in his most recent start as the veteran gamer bounced right back from the worst start of his career in his prior outing.  Arrieta has been solid in 3 of his 4 road outings this season and now takes on the worst home team in all of baseball.  In those 3 road starts Arrieta has allowed just 6 earned runs in 17 innings while walking just 2 and striking out 12.  Per our computer math model, more of the same expected here.  Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara went 3-8 with a 4.23 ERA in his home starts last season and got absolutely hammered in his only start in Miami so far this season.  This one has all the makings of a road rout as the Marlins are still licking their wounds from yesterday's 29-9 shellacking!  Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line in early evening action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago White Sox @ Pittburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET

Yesterday's starting pitchers combined to allow just 2 runs in 9 innings!  However, the bullpens combined to allow 7 runs the rest of the way.  The total fell just short of going over but we like the value that result is helping to give us here as we project the bullpens to again struggle and, this time, both starters struggle too!  The White Sox start Dane Dunning.  The rookie right-hander just made his first road start and it did not go well.  Dunning gave up 3 earned runs on 5 hits and 4 walks in 4 and 2 / 3 innings.  Overall,  2 of his 3 starts (and his only road outing) have been rough this season.  The Pirates start JT Brubaker.  He is also a rookie and opponents have hit .290 against him in his 4 home starts.  In outings at PNC Park this season Brubaker has a 1.67 WHIP which is a bad sign for him here as he now faces a White Sox team that has won 4 of its last 5 games and scored an average of 7 runs per game in those 5 contests.  The Pirates have won 7 of their last 11 home games and have scored an average of 5 runs per game even though 2 of those games were just 7-inning contests.  Each team got to double digits in hits yesterday and more of the same expected today with the difference this time that it will result in an over.  Per our computer math model, this one gets into double digits in runs!   Bet the OVER in Pittsburgh in early evening action Wednesday. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians, Tuesday at 6:10 PM ET

As football season approaches cooler weather is making its way back into the picture. However, though it is already in the northern plains and upper midwest it has not yet moved east through all of the Great Lakes region.  That being said, Cleveland is still on the warm side of the weather front Tuesday and the ball should be carrying quite well in this one.  The pitching match-up is ideal for an over.  While it is true that neither one of these teams is known for a powerhouse lineup, that is also a key reason as to why this total has been holding in the 8.5 range this morning and that is a great value considering both pitchers are likely to get hit hard.  Triston McKenzie is a rookie and this will be the first time ever he has faced a major league team for a 2nd time.  Not only that, the Indians right-hander just faced the Royals last week.  Though he was successful in that start, McKenzie labored in his prior start and now Kansas City takes advantage of getting a quick second look at him.  The Indians also will enjoy facing another pitcher they just saw last week as Jakob Junis takes the mound for the Royals.  Junis took a line drive off the forearm of his throwing arm in his most recent outing.  That certainly won't help matters for a guy whom is making just his 2nd road start of this season and his 5th start overall.  He went 6-10 with a 4.88 ERA in night games in 2018 and 5-10 with a 5.40 ERA in night games last season.  This will be his 4th start under the lights this season .  He was hit hard in his only road start this season.  More of the same here.  Indians are 5-1 last 6 games and scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in those victories.  The Royals have lost 7 straight games and allowed an average of 7.3 runs per game during this losing streak. . Kansas City again gives up plenty here but they give the rookie McKenzie trouble as they see him for a 2nd time in less than a week.  Per our computer math model, this one gets into double digits in runs!   Bet the OVER in Cleveland in early evening action Tuesday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) @ Washington Nationals, Monday at 6:05 PM ET

The Rays are the top team in the American League this season and are 14-7 in road games on the year.  The Nationals are enduring a post-World Series Championship season slump and are dead last in their division and an ugly 6-13 in home games this year.  Washington is starting Max Scherzer in this one and he commands respect from the betting markets but that has led to value here with the Rays Charlie Morton certainly no slouch on the mound either!  In fact, and a key here, Morton is trending the right direction while the same can not be said for Scherzer.  The Nationals right-hander has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts.  In those 3 outings Scherzer has given up 12 earned runs and 5 home runs!  As for Morton, he recently returned from injury and his numbers are still "off" early this season only because his first start of the season way back in July was a rough one.  Morton has since pitched to a 2.45 ERA in his last 4 starts.  He might only work through about 4 innings in this one but a strength of Tampa Bay is having one of the best bullpens in baseball.  As for Scherzer he may not work too deep either and that's, in part, because he has a 4.42 ERA in home outings this season and our computer math models show him getting touched up a bit early on in this one.  Then a sub-par Washington pen will take over after Scherzer exits.  The Rays are 22-5 in their last 27 games!  The Nationals are 3-11 in their last 14 games!  Grab that underdog value with the much better team.  Bet the Tampa Bay Rays on the money line in early evening action Monday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ New York Mets, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET

Jacob deGrom is a great pitcher of course.  However, so too is Aaron Nola.  That being said, it is hard to ignore the Phillies as a sizable underdog with their ace on the mound especially when they are coming off a loss yesterday!  Prior to yesterday's defeat Philadelphia had won 10 of 11 games while New York had lost 6 of 8 games!  That said, this is a case where you get the hotter team with their ace on the mound and with the club coming off a loss plus you get a +135 return on your money.  This is a situation filled with value.  As strong as deGrom has been again this season, keep in mind that he has faced the Marlins for 4 straight starts.  Miami has a slugging percentage of .370 on the season which ranks them 26th in the majors.  By comparison, the Phillies have a .450 slugging percentage on the season which ranks them 6th out of the 30 teams in MLB.  This is a big difference and in looking at his career numbers deGrom has struggled more against left-handed bats than righties.  He will face a steady diet of left-handed sticks in this match-up and the right-handed bats that do step in to the batters box for Philadelphia in this one are likely to include a number of dangerous hitters like Hoskins, Realmuto, and Segura.  That being said, we look for Nola to get some run support here and it shouldn't take much for him to get the win.  He is 4-1 in his last 5 starts and has been stellar in 5 of his last 6 starts.  In those 5 outings Nola has allowed just 4 earned runs in 36 innings.  That equates to a 1.00 ERA over 5 starts and we like our chances with the staff ace as a +135 dog and having the hotter team behind him than does deGrom.  Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line in early afternoon action Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET

The set up is perfect here as these teams are off a double header yesterday.  Those games totaled 6 and 7 runs respectively but keep in mind those were only 7 inning games since it was a double header.  Also, all those runs yesterday were scored in the first 5 innings yesterday.  We fully expect these teams to again get to at least 6 or 7 runs by the midway point of the game once again and this time, being a 9-inning game, it should easily get over the total.  The Reds are starting Anthony DeSclafani here.  He is off his first start since coming back from paternity leave and he was rocked for 7 runs in less than 4 innings of work.  Also, the Pirates are loaded with hitters that have good history against DeSclafani.  Not only high batting averages but also guys like Bell, Frazier, Moran, Newman, and Polanco have combined for 9 homers in 77 at bats against him.  As you can see the Bucs hitters have a lot of experience against DeSclafani and have taken him deep often.  The Reds right-hander has a 7.71 ERA this season but the only good news for him here is that he should be the recipient of plenty of run support in this one!  The Cincinnati sticks will be teeing off against Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams in this one.  He is 1-5 with a 5.50 ERA on the season.  Reds hitters Barnhart, Casali, Castellanos, Galvis, Votto, Winker all have had good success against Williams with high averages.  Prior to yesterday's double-header (again those are shortened games!) 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games had totaled 11 or more runs.  The Reds are known for a struggling bullpen.  The Pirates, prior to yesterday's double-header had seen 5 of their 7 preceding games total 10 or more runs.  Per our computer math model, this one gets into double digits in runs as well!   Bet the OVER in Pittsburgh in early evening action Saturday.  

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays, Friday at 6:40 PM ET

Pablo Lopez gets the start for the Marlins here.  Not only does he have a 2.10 ERA on the season he has been particularly strong on the road where he has a 1.20 ERA this year.  The Rays counter with Josh Fleming and he is undefeated with a 1.74 ERA so far this season.  Opponents are hitting only .189 against Fleming.  Opponents are hitting just .224 against Lopez in his road starts.  In 6 starts overall this season Lopez has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in any of them.  Fleming has allowed a total of just 2 earned runs in his 2 starts this season.  The Marlins last 9 games have featured only 2 that totaled more than 8 runs and this game opened up with the O/U set at 8 runs.  Miami's last 6 games featured one high-scoring match-up with the Rays but in the other 5 games the Marlins have scored an average of only 1.8 runs.  Tampa Bay is 7-1 in its last 8 games but strong pitching, rather than strong hitting, has played a key role in all the winning.  The Rays only had one game of the 8 total more than 8 runs.  Tampa has allowed 3 or less runs in 6 of their past 8 games.  Per our computer math model, another low-scoring game on tap between these Florida foes.  Bet the UNDER in Tampa Bay in early evening action Friday.  

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 8:05 PM ET

The White Sox scored just 1 run at Minnesota yesterday while the Royals were shutout at home by the Indians yesterday.  That actually makes this the perfect bounce back set-up for an over today.  Chicago is starting Dylan Cease and he just faced the Royals last week and walked 6 in 4 and 1 / 3 innings.  Cease escaped damage in that start but the story will likely be different now that he faces them at Kansas City in this one.  In fact, he has allowed 8 runs (6 earned) in 8 innings over two career starts at KC.  On the road this season opponents are hitting .280 against Cease.  Speaking of getting hit hard, Danny Duffy has allowed 5 homers in his last 4 starts and that includes 2 home runs allowed versus the White Sox and that was just last week!   Chicago gets another look at him less than a week later and that is bad news for Duffy as he has struggled against the White Sox historically.  Being division rivals there is a lot of familiarity for the White Sox hitters with Duffy since he has been with the Royals for his entire career and that has spanned an entire decade.  Bet the OVER in Kansas City in evening action Thursday.  

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles, Wednesday at 4:05 PM ET

Yesterday's game was 8-5 for 13 runs through SIX innings and ultimately ended up a 9-5 final.  The Orioles have scored 5 or more runs in each of their last 4 home games.  Baltimore is likely to have little trouble with the offerings of the struggling Met Michael Wacha.  In his starts in the month of August, Wacha went 0-2 with a 9.75 ERA.  Though he piled up strikeouts, the problem for Wacha is that when contact has been made it has been solid contact.  In other words, when he misses with his location those offerings have been crushed.  Things are unlikely to improve for Wacha here as he makes his first day game start of 2020.  Last season he had a 5.62 ERA in 11 day game starts and opponents hit .306 against him.  The Orioles won't be the only team mashing the ball this afternoon.  The Mets will take advantage of facing a struggling John Means.  The Baltimore southpaw is 0-2 with an 8.59 ERA in his five starts this season.  Means has a 10.13 ERA in his 4 home starts this year and got destroyed in his only day game outing.  Last season, a good one for Means, saw him allow opponents to hit just .217 against him in night starts but .274 in day game starts.  In other words, this is not the spot for Means to turn it around.  Per our computer math model, just like yesterday's game, there is a strong probability this game reaches the double digit mark in runs scored by the 6th inning!  Bet the OVER in Baltimore in afternoon action Wednesday.  

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET

After a day off Monday, these teams are back beginning a new series on Tuesday.  How did August go for the Dodgers bats?  How about setting a new team record with 57 homers for the month!  Things are not so rosy for the Diamondbacks as they endured plenty of losing in recent weeks but look for LA's Julio Urias to help the Arizona bats come back to life here.  Urias has struggled in his last two starts with those outings lasting just 5 and 2 / 3 innings and the lefty allowing 5 earned runs on 10 hits and 4 walks in those two shortened appearances.  The Diamondbacks faced Urias exactly one month ago to the day so seeing him again will also be an edge for the hitters and they catch the southpaw in a downward trend as his fastball velocity is down and yet the velocity on his offspeed stuff is up.  That is not the dynamic you want to present to major league hitters and until he sorts this out he needs to be faded.  The good news for Urias here is that he should be the recipient of plenty of run support in this one.  Arizona has lost 10 of its last 11 games and allowed an average of 5 runs per game during this stretch.  The Dodgers have won 15 of 18 games and scored an average of 6.3 runs per game during this stretch.  LA will be facing Alex Young of the Diamondbacks in this one.  He was great in day games last season but had a 4.31 ERA in his night games compared to a 2.17 ERA in day games.  That trend has continued this season for Young as he has a 5.40 ERA in evening action and now faces the best team in baseball!  The Dodgers have seen Young twice out of the bullpen already this season and in his lone career start at Dodger Stadium, Young got rocked for 4 earned runs in 3 and 1 / 3 innings!  Per our computer math model, more of the same for Young is on tap in this one!  The Dodgers .499 slugging percentage in home games ranks among the best marks in the majors!  Bet the OVER in LA Dodgers in late night action Tuesday.  

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Washington Nationals, Monday at 7:05 PM ET

When a team is down 10-0 in the top of the 2nd inning and yet battles all the way back to almost win the game you know you have a team with no quit.  That is the case with the Phillies.  Though certainly they would have rather had the sweep and not lost yesterday's series finale with the Braves, there is no hanging of heads for this Philly team.  They battled all the way back and were down 11-10 heading to the 9th inning of yesterday's 12-10 loss.  Now Philadelphia takes on a struggling Nationals team and the Phillies also hold a pitching edge here.  Spencer Howard is a highly touted rookie and he has gotten past a blister issue that was giving him trouble earlier this season.  In his most recent start Howard allowed 1 earned run in 3 and 2 / 3 innings while striking out 5.  He also kept the ball in the yard in that one and his good stuff should be on full display at home against the struggling Nationals on Monday night.  Washington has not won back to back games in 3 weeks!  Since August 5th the Nats are 8-15.  That included losing their only 2 meetings with the Phillies.  As the defending World Champs, the Nationals have had a target on their backs this season and the Phillies are a division rival that has special disdain for Washington in particular due to having former Nat Bryce Harper on their roster now.  Already 2-0 against the Nationals this season, the Phillies go for more tonight as they look to add to a stretch that had seen them win 5 straight games before last night's loss.  Philadelphia had also won 5 straight home games before falling just short at Citizens Bank Park last night.  The Phillies will take advantage of seeing Erick Fedde for the 2nd time in a week on Monday.  Fedde has a 5.14 ERA at the MLB level with opponents hitting .290 against him.  The Phillies are very familiar with Fedde and he struggled against them in last week's outing.  Philadelphia has scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 7 games and stay hot at the plate here per our computer math model which also is forecasting Howard to build off his most recent start and put together his most complete start at the MLB level.  Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line in early evening action Monday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET

Yesterday's game saw the teams combine for 23 hits but there were 5 double plays in the game and it totaled only 7 runs. The prior game between these teams on Friday totaled 14 runs. That was preceded by the following run totals in the Rockies 3 preceding home games: 18, 19, 16. The weather in Denver this afternoon will be very warm and very dry and the conditions are perfect for the ball to be jumping off the bat and carrying very well at Coors Field. Per our computer math model, a run total in the range of the 17 runs that the Rockies 4 preceding home games averaged is what is expected here this afternoon. Chris Paddack gets the start for San Diego in this one. He has not been himself this season and opponents are hitting .303 with a .797 slugging percentage against his fastball. That, in and of itself, is a problem for Paddack. Adding to the concern for him here is the fact that he has been hit hard on the road this season plus now makes his first ever start at Colorado. Coors Field has been known to be a bit of a "house of horrors" for young pitchers when they make their first appearance there and this outing is likely to go no differently with the poor recent form of Paddack. As for Rockies starter Ryan Castellani, like most Colorado pitchers he is much better on the road than at home. In his most recent home start he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 and 2 / 3 innings. Castellani only struck out 1 in that game and the rookie right-hander has given up a pair of homers in each of his last two starts overall. He is facing a Padres team that has a .479 slugging percentage on the season. That is the #1 ranked slugging percentage in the National League. Prior to yesterday's loss, San Diego had won 9 of its last 11 games and scored an average of 8.4 runs per game in those 9 victories. Look for an 9-8 type game in this one as it flies over the total. Bet the OVER in Colorado in afternoon action Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Washington Nationals Money Line (-) @ Boston Red Sox, Friday at 7:30 PM ET

The Nationals rolled to a 10-2 win yesterday and they offer great line value in this spot.  Washington is available as a very small favorite here because Anibal Sanchez is on the mound.  There is reason to believe he will be successful here as Boston is a very downtrodden team right now. They traded away a couple bullpen arms, there are rumors about some of their big name players not being around much longer, and they are simply having an awful season.  Even at home the Red Sox are a horrible 4-11 this season while the Nats are a respectable 6-4 on the road this year.  Also, the Red Sox starter in this one is likely to get roughed up again.  Chris Mazza gets the start and he got rocked for 4 runs on 8 hits in just 3 innings in his first (and only) start this season.  Mazza now has a 5.73 ERA at the MLB level and opponents are hitting .337 against him.  The Nationals Sanchez has overall sub-par numbers so far this season but this is a guy whom entered this season with a combined 3.39 ERA that past two seasons combined!  That is over 55 games (54 starts) and shows what Sanchez is capable of.  Also, he showed signs in his last start that he is back on track for this season.  Sanchez allowed just one solo homer among 5 hits in a solid 7-inning start in which that was the only run he gave up.  Facing a fading Red Sox team and with his teammates bats confident off the 10-run outburst yesterday, Sanchez and the Nats roll here.  Per our computer math model, a road rout expected.  Bet the Washington Nationals on the money line in early evening action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves, Friday at 7:05 PM ET

Zack Wheeler has been tremendous in the starting rotation for the Phillies this season.  He is 3-0 with a 2.76 ERA on the season and he also had a great start against the Braves when he faced them.  Wheeler allowed just 2 earned runs on only 5 hits while striking out 8 in 7 innings of work.  Conversely, the starter for the Braves in this one may not be too happy about facing the Phillies.  Robbie Erlin has allowed 4 homers in 6 and 2 / 3 innings against Philadelphia this season.  Erlin is with his 3rd team in two seasons!  Last year he had a 5.37 ERA with the Padres and opponents hit .312 against him.  This season he started out with the Pirates and then was released.  Now he is with the Braves and has a 5.14 combined ERA this season.  Big starting pitching edge for the Phillies here and they are building confidence thanks to a 3-game winning streak.  Though their bullpen is still certainly not a strength, Wheeler has pitched at least 7 innings in 3 of his 5 starts this season so the bullpen should not be needed too much in this one.  Also, Philadelphia has improved its bullpen with recent trades.  Those new arms will be paying dividends as time goes on.  Also, the Braves have won their last two games overall and their last two road games but that was preceded by a stretch that saw Atlanta go 2-7 in 9 road games!  The Phillies have won 3 straight overall and 3 straight home games.  Philadelphia is only 2 games back of the Braves in the loss column and this is a fantastic opportunity for the Phillies to gain ground on Atlanta.  With Wheeler besting Erlin plus the home/road dichotomy factor, look for the Phillies to do just that tonight.  Per our computer math model, a home blowout expected.  Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line in early evening action Friday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago Cubs @ Detroit Tigers, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET

On the one hand Jonathan Schoop hit a grand slam for the Tigers last night.  On the other hand, the rest of the night these two teams combined to go 1 for 12 with runners in scoring position.  For the most part it was a game that lacked clutch hitting and that is why it fell just short of the O/U of 9 runs as the game ended with a total of 8 runs scored.  Look for tonight's match-up, featuring two struggling starting pitchers, to make up for last night's shortfall.  Certainly the Cubs should bounce back after scoring just one run last night.  They'll take advantage of facing a struggling Michael Fulmer.  The Tigers right hander has not lasted more than 3 innings in any of his 4 starts.  Not only do the short outings bring a bad Detroit bullpen into play, Fulmer generally has been rocked by the time he exits his start.  One of the four was a decent outing but in the other three Fulmer allowed 12 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings.  The Tigers also will be teeing off at the plate tonight!  Chicago is starting Jon Lester.  The veteran southpaw just can't locate his cutter in recent starts and, lacking an overpowering fastball, the inability to locate his breaking pitches is a major problem.  How major?  Lester has allowed 13 earned runs in 9 and 2 / 3 innings over his last two starts.  The Cubs have allowed at least 7 runs in each of their last 4 losses.  The Cubs have scored at least 6 runs in 5 of their last 7 wins that were 9 inning games (teams playing 7 inning games in double headers this season).  That is another reason we're expecting for a lot of runs in this one either way.  Per our computer math model, the winner is tough to call in this match-up but the fact that plenty of runs will be scored is not a tough call!  Look for at least 11 in this one per our computer math model.  Bet the OVER in Detroit in early evening action Wednesday.  

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres, Tuesday at 9:10 PM ET

Chris Paddack starts for the Padres here.  The right-hander has been phenomenal in his home starts.  Last season Paddack went 6-3 with a 3.06 ERA and a .188 BAA at Petco Park.  This year, in his 2nd MLB season, Paddack has a 2.66 ERA in his 4 home starts and has held opponents to a .212 batting average.  The Mariners, being an AL team, don't have much familiarity with him and the hitters that do are a combined 6 for 31 against Paddack in his career.  Seattle starts Marco Gonzales here.  The Mariners southpaw has been fantastic in 3 of his last 4 starts.  Gonzales has allowed just 4 earned runs on only 11 hits in 20 and 1 / 3 innings spanning those 3 outings.  The Padres lineup has not faced him other than Dee Gordon and he is 0 for 3 in his career against him.  Big edges for the pitchers in this one.  Seattle is hitting .224 this season which ranks them 26th in the majors out of 30 teams.  The Padres have been hitting better and are on a 7-game winning streak but their numbers are a bit skewed too.  Their 5 runs in closing out their most recent series came on just 6 hits.  In the opener of that series they were held to just 4 runs.  Prior to that series San Diego had a couple of 10th inning victories including one that was one on a 10th inning grand slam after they managed just 2 runs through the first 9 innings.  Considering all of those factors and the lack of familiarity with Gonzales and much of the Mariners bullpen arms, the Padres will struggle at the plate here and the Mariners will struggle with Paddack as his home dominance continues.  Bet the UNDER in San Diego in late night action Tuesday.  

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5 runs) over Toronto Blue Jays, Monday at 3:10 PM ET

The red hot Rays have won 13 of 15 games.  The Jays got 2 runs in the top of the 8th to make it a 2nd straight 1-run win for the Rays in this series.  But prior to that, 7 of the Rays last 8 wins had been decided by a margin of 2 or more runs.  We are anticipating a blowout type win here that is similar to the types of wins in that  8 game stretch which had an average margin of victory of 4 runs per game.  Indeed, Tampa Bay's lineup has improved as the season has gone on and they continue to get good pitching.  Blake Snell gets the start here for the Rays and he is 2-0 in his 3 August starts and has held opponents to a .178 batting average this month.  The left-hander is battling back from a disappointing 2019 season and showing signs of the form that saw him go 21-5 with a 1.89 ERA in 2018! Coincidentally Snell held opponents to a .178 batting average that season.  Look for his August dominance to continue here.  The Jays, prior to this series, had 11 losses on the year and 8 of those came by a multiple run margin.  Toronto sends Tanner Roark to the hill for this one.  The veteran right-hander is struggling this month.  Roark allowed 7 earned runs in 7 innings in his first two August starts.  He then followed that up by allowing 9 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start.  Roark allowed just 2 runs (1 earned) in that start but had to escape some big jams.  He won't be so fortunate the way these Rays are swinging the sticks right now and they get him into trouble early and, unlike the Orioles against Roark, they will cash in on those scoring chances!  The Rays are averaging 6.3 runs per game their last 13 games.  Per our computer math model, the home team is poised to win in a rout as they ride momentum and the best value here is with utilizing the run line to get them at a short price by laying the 1.5 runs.  Lay it!  Bet the Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs in afternoon action Monday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET

The Red Sox team ERA of 5.89 is only ahead of one of the 30 teams in MLB!  Also, the Orioles 4.89 team ERA ranks them in the bottom third of the majors as well!  Each of these teams has struggled with their pitching this season and Boston (now in sell mode) already traded away a pair of bullpen arms to the Phillies.  The starting pitching match-up here also screams "over" which is why this total is so high too.  Yes a 10.5 is a big number but our computer math model projects this game ending with more than a dozen runs.  The Red Sox start Zack Godley.  Opponents are hitting .333 against Godley this season and he is still seeking his first win.  In 5 games (4 starts) Godley has a 6.87 ERA.  Last season Godley registered a 5.97 ERA and this is the part of the reason he is now with his 3rd team in 2 seasons!  The fact is the Red Sox are desperate for pitching and the Orioles are ranked 5th in the majors with a .453 slugging percentage and should crush Godley and the Boston bullpen today.  Baltimore is starting Wade LeBlanc in this one.  The veteran lefty has struggled in 4 of his 5 starts this season and that includes his season opening effort against the Red Sox.  LeBlanc has a 7.89 ERA on the season and the Red Sox have a number of hitters in their lineup who have hit him hard in their career meetings.  More of the same is expected here and this one is forecast to turn into a back and forth high-scoring affair with both teams turning to questionable bullpen arms early in this one after both starters get hit hard!  Bet the OVER in the Baltimore Orioles game in early afternoon action Sunday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET

The Indians had won 6 straight games before yesterday's 10-5 loss to the Tigers.  Cleveland has averaged scoring nearly 6 runs per game during this 7-game stretch.  Neither one of these teams is known for strong production at the plate this season but the fact is that they are both trending in a positive direction in that regard.  Detroit has scored 4 or more runs in 7 of their last 11 games and should enjoy success Saturday against a rookie making his MLB debut.  Not only is this the MLB debut for Triston McKenzie, he has never pitched above the AA level in the minors so this is a big jump for him.  Yesterday's total of 15 runs marked the 6th time in the Tigers last 10 games that their game totaled a dozen or more runs.  Of course the fact that Detroit has a 5.99 ERA on the season (dead last in the majors) certainly factors into that and it is a weak bullpen backing up a struggling starting pitcher for this one.  The Tigers send Matthew Boyd to the mound and the southpaw is 0-3 with a 9.64 ERA this season.  He has been having trouble with allowing too many homers and a visit to Cleveland is unlikely to help him.  Boyd allowed a total of 5 homers in his 2 starts at Progressive Field last season.  Per our computer math model, more of the same is on tap this evening as this one soars over the total.  Bet the OVER in the Cleveland Indians game in early evening action Saturday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Friday at 7:35 PM ET

The Red Sox have a 6.01 team ERA which ranks just above Detroit in the battle for the worst spot in the majors!  Of course that is not a battle you want to be in but the Red Sox are simply void of solid pitching this season.  Nathan Eovaldi made a great start for them yesterday and that was much needed and is rare.  Today the Red Sox are going with a "bullpen game" in terms of the starting pitching and of course that is bad news for a team with a 6.01 ERA on the season!  Boston is expected to use Colten Brewer (side note here we do not care who starts for Boston, we like the over no matter who gets the call as the opener).  Brewer's first career start saw him take 73 pitches just to get through 2 and 2 / 3 innings and we expect this outing to also be a struggle for him. The Orioles are starting John Means in this one and the southpaw has had a rough start to the 2020 season.  His father passed away and he missed time and is dealing with that emotionally.  In terms of physical issues, Means had missed time due to arm fatigue and has simply not been right early this season.  The Orioles bullpen is honestly not much better than the Red Sox and plus Means is only expected to last about 50 pitches here and then Jorge Lopez will likely be up next.  Means has a 10.57 ERA in his 3 starts this season.  Lopez is 7-15 with a 5.94 ERA in his career and has struggled this season too.  Before struggling at the plate in their past two games, the Orioles had enjoyed an 11-game stretch in which they averaged 6.5 runs per game.  Boston has scored at least 6 runs in 3 straight games and, per our computer math model, each team has a strong chance of getting to 6 runs in this one and it flies over the total as a result.  Bet the OVER in the Baltimore Orioles game in early evening action Friday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: San Diego Padres (-1.5 runs) over Texas Rangers, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET

The Rangers have lost 4 straight and are 3-7 on the road this season. The Padres have won 3 straight and are 7-4 at home this season. San Diego is also riding the positive momentum of a huge walk-off win last night that left the Rangers stunned! After tying the game late on a homer the Rangers were able to force extra innings. They then took a 1-run lead in the top of the 10th only to watch the bullpen implode and the Padres won it on a Manny Machado grand slam in the bottom of the 10th! Couple the hot versus not factor and the clubhouse mood for each team (particularly after last night's finish) and you have a great situation to be taking a look at San Diego in this one. The Padres are a pricey money line favorite here with good reason. Not only because of all of the above but also the pitching factor here. Dinelson Lamet has been every bit of a young ace for the Padres. The San Diego right-hander throws plenty of heat and then keeps hitters off-balance with a devastating slider. That is a lethal combo and Lamet has a 1.59 ERA in his 5 starts this season. He has piled up 36 strikeouts in 28 and 1 / 3 innings and opponents are hitting only .152 against him. On the other hand, the Rangers Kyle Gibson is a very hittable pitcher. He has allowed opponents to hit .278 against him so far this season and has allowed high opponents BAA in 3 of the past 4 seasons (.275, .292, .298). Last season Gibson had a 5.45 ERA in night games. Per our computer math model, the home team is poised to win in a rout as they ride momentum and the best value here is with utilizing the run line to get them at a plus money return by laying the 1.5 runs. Lay it! Bet the San Diego Padres -1.5 runs in evening action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Oakland A's (-1.5 runs) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 9:40 PM ET

The A's have been one of the best teams in MLB this season but got blasted at Arizona yesterday.  Now the series shifts to Oakland and it is payback time tonight.  The Diamondbacks are only 5-7 on the road this season.   The Athletics are 9-3 at home this season.  Arizona's Merrill Kelly has pitched well early this season but, keep in mind, this has been in rather limited action.  He has only made 2 road starts and last season on the road he was 6-9 with a 5.42 ERA in his road outings.  The A's are starting Jesus Luzardo and he is off his worst start of the young season.  We like taking talented quality pitchers off a rough start and he is now back home where the southpaw is undefeated in 4 outings (2 starts) and has compiled a 2.60 ERA.  Opponents are hitting just .217 against Luzardo in his home games and he has fanned 17 in 17 innings!  The A's were 52-29 at home last season so they are a combined 61-32 in home games the past two seasons combined.  The Dbacks have a losing record on the road when combining last season and this season and the A's are a pricey money line favorite here with good reason.  Per our computer math model, the home team is poised to win in a rout in this bounce back spot and the best value is with utilizing the run line to get them at a plus money return by laying the 1.5 runs.  Lay it!  Bet the Oakland A's -1.5 runs in late night action Wednesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Boston Red Sox, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET

The Red Sox are off a series with their most bitter rivals, the Yankees, and got swept and have now lost 8 straight games.  Boston is having a rough start to the season and it won't get any easier here.  While the Sox are a very down team and even their body language shows they have clubhouse issues right now, the Phillies are a rejuvenated team and coming off a welcome day off on Monday.  Philadelphia has rested bullpen arms now and the team is feeling very good about themselves after sweeping the division rival Mets over the weekend.  A key clutch walk-off win seemed to turn this team's fortunes around in the Mets series and Philly keeps it going on Tuesday in Boston per our computer math model.  The Red Sox Zack Godley is winless with an 8.16 ERA so far this season.  On the other hand, the Phillies Zach Eflin has struck out 15 in his 10 innings of work so far this season and has his sinker working very well again.  Eflin has always been known to have great stuff and he seems to be rounding into form nicely for the Phillies and takes on a Red Sox team that is not that familiar with him.  That is because this is an AL/NL match-up.  But the Phillies lineup does have some hitters with experience (and some good results) against Godley from all his years in the National League prior to going to Boston.  This is a classic case of hot versus not in terms of the trending of these two teams and we also would give the pitching edge and situational edge to the Phillies here.  Per our computer math model, a road rout expected.  Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the money line in early evening action Tuesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves, Monday at 7:10 PM ET

The Braves Touki Toussaint is coming off a rough start against the Yankees.  He is likely in for another rough one here as he has a history of struggles against the Nationals and that has proven true even when he faces them at home where Toussaint normally pitches better.  That being said, and with favorable weather conditions at hitter-friendly Truist Park expected tonight, this game has potential to turn into quite a slug-fest.  Toussaint has an 8.59 ERA in his career against the Nationals and has walked 10 in just 7 and 1 / 3 innings of work when facing Washington.  Last season against the Nats he gave up 2 homers in 6 and 1 / 3 innings.  This season Toussaint had an outing featuring 4 scoreless innings against the Mets.  However, in his other 3 outings he has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in 13 and 1 / 3 innings.  Per our computer math model, another rough outing is on tap here for Toussaint.  Speaking of rough times ahead, the Nationals are starting Anibal Sanchez here.  The right-hander has lost all 3 of his starts and compiled a 9.69 ERA so far this season.  He has allowed 5 homers in 13 innings this season.  Washington has scored an average of 7 runs per game L7 games.  Atlanta is 7-2 in home games this season and has averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in the 7 victories.  Bet the OVER in the Atlanta Braves game in early evening action Monday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET

The Angels Julio Teheran is struggling early this season (13.50 ERA) and now faces a Dodgers team whose .449 slugging percentage ranks 4th in the majors!  The Dodgers are heating up at the plate too as they have won 4 straight games and scored an average of 7.5 runs per game in those victories.  They will need all the runs they can get in this one because our computer math model is also forecasting their starter, Dustin May, to struggle in this one.  May has a low ERA early this season but certainly has been far from unhittable.  What we like most about this match-up is the Angels most dangerous hitters are powerful right-handed sticks like Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon.  Coupled with the fact the Angels will likely have 5 of their other 7 sticks stepping in on the left-handed side of the plate and you have the makings of a rough start for May.  Last season he had a 9.53 ERA against lefties and they hit .346 against him!  This season so far lefties are hitting .306 against May.  The Angels have scored an average of 5.8 runs per game in their past 5 games and 4 of those 5 games ended with a game total of 11 or more runs being scored.  Our computer math model is forecasting that this one will too and we look for another high-scoring game at Angel Stadium.  Bet the OVER in the LA Angels game in late afternoon action Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins, Friday at 7:10 PM ET

The Braves are off a 6-3 loss to the Yankees Wednesday but they had 11 hits in that game.  Atlanta entered that game having averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their 4 prior games and 2 of those games were only 7 innings long because the Braves played a double-header during this stretch.  The point is that the Braves have been swinging the bats quite well.  The Marlins also have enjoyed some recent success at the plate.  Overall, Miami has been a big surprise early this season and they are 8-4 on the year which makes this a big showdown in the NL East.  The Marlins have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their 8 victories this season and have scored at least 4 runs in 5 of their past 6 games.  Getting each team to 4 runs in this game guarantees us a winning ticket with this total set at 8.5 runs.  We like our chances in that regard as Miami will have plenty of confidence at the plate in their home stadium and off a 14-11 win over Toronto on Wednesday.  The Braves .437 slugging percentage ranks them 8th in the majors out of 30 teams.  Miami starter Pablo Lopez is winless in his 5 career starts against Atlanta.  The Braves start Kyle Wright in this one and he is now 0-5 with a 7.41 ERA in his 14 career appearances (7 starts) at the MLB level.  He gave up 2 homers in his lone career start against the Marlins and Miami will bring momentum into this one from the successful finish to the series with the Blue Jays.  The Marlins also are thrilled to finally be able to play a game at home in Miami after being away for so long due to the Covid-19 situation.  Bet the OVER in the Miami Marlins game in early evening action Friday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5 runs) over Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET

The Phillies have struggled early this season but the Orioles are certainly no powerhouse and this is the ideal situation to back the home team and expect a rout.  Philadelphia is nearly a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line but on the run line we get them down to a price in the pick'em range and there is plenty of support for expecting a win by 2 or more runs here.  4 of the Phillies 5 wins this season have come by a margin of 4 or more runs!  When they win they generally win big.  Also, Philadelphia has lost each of the last two games against Baltimore and the Phillies are 2-0 this season when they enter a game off back to back losses and each of the 2 wins came by a blowout margin.  Jake Arrieta has been a stronger starter at home than on the road since coming to the Phillies and he is healthy again and coming off a dominating performance against the Braves at Citizens Bank Park.  He'll be opposed by Thomas Eshelman who, though drafted by the Astros, actually came up through the Phillies farm system.  But in 2018 at AAA Lehigh Valley he went 2-13 with a 5.84 ERA.  In his major league appearances (12 games, 5 starts) Eshelman has a 6.02 ERA.  The way Arrieta is dealing right now and the way Eshelman has struggled, as well as the situational factors here, this one sets up to be all Phillies!   Bet the Phillies -1.5 runs in afternoon action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Cleveland Indians Money Line (-) vs Chicago Cubs, Wednesday at 6:10 PM ET

Look for the Indians to bounce right back from yesterday's 7-1 home loss.  The Cubs start Kyle Hendricks here and his road struggles have continued.  Last season he was great at Wrigley Field but went 5-8 with a 5.02 ERA away from home.  Opponents hit .290 against Hendricks when he was on the road.  This season he has made 3 starts and the home outings went fine but his road outing saw him allow 6 earned runs in just 4 and 1 / 3 innings.  The Indians had won 5 of 6 games prior to yesterday's loss and Cleveland has averaged scoring 8.3 runs per game in their last 3 victories.  The offense is showing some life and their bullpen has been among the best in the majors early this season.  Additionally they hand the ball to a starter in great current form for this one.  Carlos Carrasco gets the call here and the same Reds team that just clobbered Hendricks when they faced him was absolutely handcuffed by Carrasco.  He held them to 1 hit in 6 innings while striking out 8.  Carrasco dealt with injury issues last season but he has put all that behind him and looks like the same pitcher that went 46-24 with a 3.32 ERA from 2016 to 2018.  The Cubs are off to a great start this season but have been fortunate with a home-heavy schedule.  Chicago is known for being much better at home than on the road.  The Cubs entered last night's contest at Cleveland having gone 1-2 in their 3 most recent road games and Chicago was outscored 25-9 in those 2 losses.  The Indians respond after last night's loss and their pitching edge and home field edge lead the way in this one.  Indians were 17 games over .500 at home last season while the Cubs were 15 games under .500 in road games last season.  Per our computer math model, this situation is offering tremendous line value considering all of the above factors.  The forecast here is a home rout.  Bet the Cleveland Indians on the money line for a TOP PLAY in early evening action Wednesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Washington Nationals @ New York Mets, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET

The Nationals Max Scherzer left his last start, also against the Mets, after just 1 inning due to tightness in a hamstring. Certainly Scherzer is a great pitcher but that is when he is healthy. He is not 100% and the hamstring is on his mind. This is a road start for him against a division rival that is familiar with him. The Mets lost yesterday's game to Washington by a final score of 16-4 and New York's last 7 home games have totaled an average of 11 runs per game. In this one we get an O/U of only 8.5 runs to work with as Scherzer's long-term reputation carries weight of course and keeps this total lower than it should be per our computer math model. Rick Porcello gets the start for the Mets here and is off of a strong start against the Nationals but he was fortunate as he gave up a lot of hard contact. Of course hard contact and Porcello go hand in hand! Prior to his start against Washington, Porcello was 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA in his first two starts this season. He entered this season off a 14-12 year last season but that was thanks to run support as Porcello had a 5.52 ERA on the campaign! The Nationals exploded for 16 runs on 17 hits in yesterday's big win and will be very confident at the plate this evening as a result of yesterday's success plus the fact they just faced Porcello last week. Bet the OVER in the New York Mets game in early evening action Tuesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Money Line: Los Angeles Angels over Oakland A's, Monday at 9:40 PM ET

One of the most common betting strategies in baseball is to ride streaks.  In that case we are most definitely bucking the trend here but this is not a normal MLB season either.  Yes the A's are the hottest team in baseball but there is a reason they are priced as a rather small favorite in this spot.  It is simply an awful spot for Oakland.  The Athletics just wrapped up a series sweep of the hated division rival Astros which included a benches clearing brawl in yesterday's game.  Suffice to say emotions ran very high throughout that series and this is absolutely a flat spot for Oakland now as the A's are on the road to face the Angels.  Oakland has a great record on the season and has won 9 straight games but they've also had an edge in that they have only played 4 road games.  By the way, the A's hit just .198 in those 4 games away from home and now face a pitcher, Julio Teheran, whom they are not familiar with as he had spent his career in the National League.  Teheran enters this game having held opponents to a .235 batting average while compiling a 3.67 ERA - those are his career numbers!  He is a solid starting pitcher and certainly gets the nod in this game over the A's Sean Manaea as he had a lot of early season struggles.  The left-hander is 0-2 with an 8.03 ERA in his first 3 starts and has not been able to make it through 5 innings in any of those starts!  Los Angeles has a .433 slugging percentage in home games this season which ranks them 3rd in the American League.  Per our computer math model, this game has upset written all over it.  Bet the Angels on the money line in late night action Monday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Money Line: Detroit Tigers over Pittsburgh Pirates, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET

The surprising Tigers have won 4 straight road games. It also seems the time off due to their games with the Cardinals being cancelled did this lineup a lot of good as Detroit has exploded for 28 runs in the first two games of this series. Part of that included giving Steven Brault trouble out of the bullpen Friday night as the Pittsburgh left-hander faced 6 Tigers and did not record an out! Now he gets the start here on Sunday because Joe Musgrove has right ankle soreness and has been scratched. Overall this is a bad Pittsburgh team with a 3-12 record that is the worst in the majors. Sunday they face the Tigers best starting pitcher so far this season as Spencer Turnbull continues to impress. A devastating slider for hitters to contend with has helped lead to 14 strikeouts in 11 innings as the Detroit right-hander has been sharp with a 2.45 ERA in his first two starts. This one, per our computer math model, is likely to turn into a road rout as Detroit stays hot at the plate and the Pirates overall early season struggles continue. Bet the Tigers on the money line in early afternoon action Sunday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres, Saturday at 9:10 PM ET

The Diamondbacks have averaged scoring only 2.4 runs per game in their 7 road games this season.  Arizona got shut out by the Padres last night and are likely in for another tough night at the plate Saturday.  That is because Chris Paddack takes the mound for San Diego here.  He has been very sharp already this season.  He also is at his best at home.  Paddack is already 2-0 in his 2 home starts this season and last season at home he went 6-3 with a 3.06 ERA and opponents hit just .188 against him at Petco Park.  The Diamondbacks starting pitcher tonight should also enjoy success.  Merrill Kelly has been sharp overall in his early season action (even battling hard against a tough Dodgers lineup) and the Padres have averaged only 6 hits per game in their past 3 games.  Kelly had a great September last year and has carried that momentum right into this season.  He is now 5-2 with a 2.31 ERA in his last 7 starts!  In Kelly's last two starts against the Padres he has pitched 14 scoreless innings while allowing just 5 hits and striking out 18!  Suffice to say he has plenty of confidence entering this match-up against the Padres.  Per our computer math model runs will be few and far between in this one.  Bet the UNDER in San Diego in late night action Saturday.  

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals, Friday at 8:05 PM ET

You never want to over-react to one game but the Royals 13-2 win yesterday was a big one for this team.  It is the kind of confidence-boosting win that can get an entire lineup going.  KC pounded out 18 hits and got RBI's yesterday from 7 of the 9 lineup spots.  In other words, it was a true team effort and gives Kansas City a lot of confidence heading into this match-up against a struggling Twins pitcher.  Keep in mind, yesterday's game was the 3rd time in 4 games that a Royals home game has totaled at least 11 runs.  Also, facing the Twins Devin Smeltzer should help the Royals bats carry momentum from yesterday's big win.  Smeltzer got rocked in his lone appearance on the road this season and also struggled in his outings away from home last season.  Kansas City starts Jakob Junis in this one.  He went 4-8 with a 5.85 ERA in his home starts last season.  Kauffman Stadium can be a very hitter friendly ballpark especially when the wind is blowing out like it is expected to be tonight.  Junis first start this season (versus the White Sox) did not go well.  Now he faces a Twins lineup loaded with home run power.  Junis has allowed 8 homers in his last 6 starts against Minnesota and, per our computer math model, more struggles for him against this potent lineup are expected tonight.  Bet the OVER in Kansas City in evening action Friday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies, Thursday at 6:05 PM ET

There is rain in the Philly area this morning and could be some lingering afternoon activity as well.  However, forecasts as of now indicate a quieter period in the early evening before rain possibly resumes overnight.  In any event, this situation is too strong to ignore and we hope the weather stays away enough that they are able to play the full 9 innings in this one.  Zach Eflin is actually the #4 starter for the Phillies but making his first appearance of the season due to prior covid-19 and weather cancellations.  Very tough for a pitcher to stay sharp when the season started two weeks ago and yet he is just now getting his shot at game action on the mound!  Plus Eflin will be facing a Yankees team whose .491 slugging percentage is tops in the majors.  Eflin has good stuff in his repertoire of pitches but he has never been able to fully harness it and has a 4.73 ERA at the MLB level as he now enters his 5th season.  The Yankees start Jordan Montgomery here and he'll be facing a Phillies lineup that came to life yesterday with a big 11-7 win in the first game of yesterday's double header.  Philadelphia's .424 slugging percentage ranks them 7th among the 30 teams in the majors. Montgomery does have a knack for giving up the long ball particularly in road starts.  Also, this will be just his 9th start since his rookie season in 2017 which was the last time he had significant activity at the MLB level.  In other words you've got two starting pitchers here who are each question marks to an extent based on the above.  You also have two potent powerful lineups and our computer math model is calling for a dozen runs to be scored in this one.  Bet the OVER in Philadelphia in early evening action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET

The Indians have struggled to score runs all season.  They show an average of 2.7 runs per game in their first 12 games but the reality is that it is even worse than that.  Cleveland had a big game earlier this season in which they scored 9 runs.  Other than that the Tribe have scored just 23 runs in their other 11 games.  That is an average of 2.1 runs per game which is hard to believe.  It won't get any easier for the slumping Indians bats here.  That's because they are facing Tejay Antone of the Reds.  The Cincinnati right-hander made his debut against a Cubs team that is currently in 1st place in the division and certainly a tough lineup to face. Antone shut them down with just 1 hit allowed over 4+ innings. The rookie right-hander also looked sharp in spring training and summer camp. Adding to his value in this spot is that the struggling lineup of the Indians (.183 batting average on season ranking dead last!) has never faced him. As for the Reds bats, they have also been quiet of late.  Cincinnati has scored 15 runs in their last 5 games.  Yes, two of those games were in a double-header and those are being played as just 7-inning games this season, but the fact is the Reds have a .213 batting average on the season which ranks them 23rd out of the 30 teams in the majors.  Cincinnati will face a tough pitcher today as Mike Clevinger gets the start for the Indians.  The Cleveland right-hander is coming off a rare tough start as he has been one of the most consistent hurlers in the game over the past 3 seasons compiling a 38-18 record with an ERA under the magical 3.00 mark! Also his tough outing in his last start was at Minnesota but now he is back home where he excelled in his first start this season plus went 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA last season. Per our computer math model, runs will be very tough to come by in this one.  Bet the UNDER in Cleveland in early evening action Wednesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET

The value here is huge.  This total opened up at an 8.5 which was already low (more on that in a moment) but then dropped down to a solid 8 which adds even more value to this one.  Everyone saw the Rays struggle on their road trip but they are a different team at home and also will get to Nathan Eovaldi early and often in this one.  Tampa Bay is averaging 6.6 runs per game when hitting at Tropicana Field this season.  Eovaldi is still getting factored into games as if he was the same pitcher who raised his game in the 2018 post-season with the Red Sox.  The fact is that he is not as all the injuries have caught up with him.  He has had two Tommy John surgeries and is coming off an injury-shortened 2019 campaign as well.  Eovaldi compiled a 5.99 ERA last season in 23 games (12 starts) and he got rocked by the Mets for 8 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start.  The Rays Charlie Morton got rocked in his first start this season (at home no less) but then was better in his 2nd one though he still allowed 6 hits in 5 innings and was hit quite hard.  He struggles more against lefties and the Red Sox will have plenty of left-handed lumber in the lineup tonight plus some big right-handed sticks like Xander Bogaerts whom no one wants to face!  While the Rays do have a solid bullpen behind Morton the Red Sox bats are quite dangerous.  As for the Boston bullpen, they have issues and their team ERA is high for a reason!  That said, the Red Sox pitching is bad enough that the Rays bats come to life at home.  The Boston bats are strong enough that the Rays pitchers prove susceptible.  Combining those factors and the fact that Eovaldi and Morton have been more hittable than usual early this season and you have the makings of an easy over in this one.  Bet the OVER in the Rays game in early evening action Tuesday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Cleveland Indians @ Cincinnati Reds, Monday at 6:40 PM ET

The Indians have struggled to score runs all season.  They show an average of 2.6 runs per game in their first 10 games but the reality is that it is even worse than that.  Cleveland had a big game earlier this season in which they scored 9 runs.  Other than that the Tribe have scored just 17 runs in their other 9 games.  That is an average of 1.9 runs per game which is hard to believe.  It won't get any easier for the slumping Indians bats here.  That's because they are facing Sonny Gray of the Reds.  The Cincinnati right-hander has absolutely dominated in his first two starts and continues piling up strikeouts!  As for the Reds bats, they have also been quiet of late.  Cincinnati has scored 10 runs in their last 3 games.  Yes, the last two were a double header and those are being played as just 7-inning games this season but the fact is the Reds have a .226 batting average on the season which ranks them 20th out of the 30 teams in the majors.  Cincinnati will face a tough pitcher today as Zach Plesac gets the start for the Indians.  The Cleveland right-hander is coming off a solid 2019 and got 2020 off to a great start as he absolutely handcuffed the White Sox in a dominating effort in which he fanned 11 in 6 innings.  Per our computer math model, runs will be very tough to come by in this one.  Bet the UNDER in Cincinnati in early evening action Monday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, Sunday at 7:08 PM ET

Yesterday's game saw 7 runs scored by the top of the 3rd inning and then the bats went silent.  That is highly unlikely to happen again today.  The Red Sox team ERA ranks among the worst in the majors so far this season.  Boston is scheduled to use Austin Brice as an opener in this one.  That said, it really wouldn't matter who the Red Sox use as the starter here but he is the one that is scheduled for Boston as of this morning.  Again, this one is being called a "bullpen game" for the Red Sox.  Brice has a 5.00 ERA in his 110 MLB appearances and has never started a game.  This season he has allowed 4 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work.  The wind is expected to be blowing out to left field for this one on Sunday evening in the Bronx.  That will help the hitters for both teams of course and we like the chances of the Boston bats coming back to life after last night's dismal result.  The Red Sox will face James Paxton who is off a horrible start in which he was rocked by the Nationals.  He is trying to get back to his usual form after having back surgery early this year.  Suffice to say early indicators point to issues.  Paxton plans to make some adjustments for this start but he tends to be a streaky pitcher as evidenced by his month to month stats last season.  We're banking on an early season down cycle for him this season and expect another tough start in his 2nd outing of the season.  Bet the OVER in the Yankees game in early evening action Sunday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Money Line: Colorado Rockies over San Diego Padres, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET

The Rockies took a 5-4 lead to the top of the 9th last night.  The Padres then tied it on a solo bomb and then won it on a 3-run shot with 2 outs!  Big win for San Diego for sure but we look for the home team to bounce right back today!  The Padres are off to a good start this season but that has them a little over-valued now and we're going to take advantage.  Coming into this season San Diego and Colorado were very close in terms of their win total projections for the shortened 2020 season 60-game schedule.  That said, for the Padres to now be favored on the road in this situation is a little bit much!  San Diego finished 13 games UNDER .500 in road games last season.  The Rockies finished 5 games OVER .500 in home games last season.  In looking at this pitching match-up today note that San Diego's Joey Lucchesi struggled as he got deeper into his first start.  Also, Lucchesi was great at home last season but went 2-6 with a 6.22 ERA in his road starts last season and Coors Field tops the list of unfriendly sites for a visiting pitcher!  As for the Rockies starter, Kyle Freeland, his first start saw him face the minimum 3 batters in each of the final 3 innings of his 6-inning start!  He got stronger as the outing went on!  He looked like the pitcher we saw in 2018 whom went 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA including 10-2 with a 2.40 ERA in his home starts.  Though Freeland struggled at home last season he also struggled overall last season but his hard work to "return to form" coming into this season has a great chance of paying off and it sure looks like he's back the way he pitched in his first start!  Keep in mind, unlike most Rockies pitchers, Freeland was better at home than on the road in both 2017 and 2018.  He is very familiar with pitching at Coors Field and gets the better of Lucchesi in this one and the Rockies get immediate payback for last night's late loss.  Bet the Rockies on the money line in evening action Saturday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, Friday at 7:10 PM ET

Both teams are off games in which they scored just 2 runs last night.  However, the O/U on this one opened up at a 10 with good reason.  The Mets were hosting the Red Sox last night and fell short but now face Sean Newcomb of the Braves whom they already faced last week.  The Braves hung on for a 2-1 win hosting the Rays last night.  While their bats were quiet in that game, Atlanta will now take advantage of again seeing Rick Porcello as they faced him this past weekend in their opening series of the season.  Porcello struggled and gave up 7 earned runs in just 2 innings in that outing against the Braves.  He had a 5.52 ERA with the Red Sox last season and giving a team a second look at you after they just rocked you in your prior start usually doesn't go well for a struggling hurler.  That being said, Porcello has seen his better days in this league and is on the downhill slide at this point in his career.  Atlanta's Newcomb had a ton of trouble with his command against the Mets this past weekend and it took 82 pitches for him just to record 10 outs as he lasted just 3 and 1 / 3 innings in that start.  The Braves lefty is notorious for being a slow starter as he had a rough April each of the past two years.  In this strange pandemic year, this is Newcomb's April and, per our computer math model, more struggles ensue today for both starting pitchers and the bullpens will again be called upon far too early as a result.  Bet the OVER in the Braves game in early evening action Friday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

The Yankees (9 runs scored, 3 homers) proved yesterday that missing a series in Philly (due to the covid-19 situation with the Marlins who had just visited there) was not going to impact their bats.  Indeed the Yankees had their big lumber going yesterday and we expect more of the same tonight.  John Means gets the start for the Orioles.  The lefty was supposed to start the season opener for Baltimore but did not due to arm fatigue.  That is certainly not a good sign for Means and he does not have overpowering stuff plus is a flyball pitcher.  Yes he had some success for the Orioles last year but not against New York.  The Yankees crushed Means for 10 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings in the two times they faced him as a starter.  Plus, with arm fatigue already an issue for Means entering this season, you could see an early exit for him here and that gets the Yanks powerful bats into a weak Orioles bullpen.  Baltimore had a 5.92 ERA in home games last season - the worst mark in the league.  Yankees start JA Happ here and the southpaw would likely rather face someone other than the Orioles.  Happ's 6.85 ERA in 5 starts against Baltimore last season show that this is a team that gives him trouble.  Happ gave up 7 homers to the Orioles last season and no team hit more against him . There were 4 homers hit in yesterday's game and the ball will again be carrying well at Camden Yards again tonight with a favorable weather report for the hitters.  All signs, including our computer math model, point to this game turning into a high-scoring affair with plenty of big innings expected.  Bet the OVER in the Orioles game in early evening action Thursday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET

Charlie Morton starts for the Rays here.  He was great through the first three innings of his first start of the season.  Morton then uncharacteristically ran into trouble in both the 4th and 5th innings.  He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball (45-16 last 3 seasons) and will bounce back strong here facing the team that he began his career with.  Morton had a 3.08 ERA the last 2 seasons and is known for responding well when off a rough outing.  The Rays right-hander had a 1.39 ERA in his 8 starts last season which followed an outing in which he was charged with 4 or more runs.  Morton will take advantage of facing a Braves team that is not swinging the bats very well.  Atlanta had one big game at the plate so far this season but in the other 4 games (3 losses), the Braves have scored an average of only 3 runs a game.  The key to the value with the under here is that the Braves are turning to their staff ace Mike Soroka for this start.  He pitched 6 scoreless innings in his opening day start and is coming off a season in which he went 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA.  The Rays have very little familiarity with him and like the Braves, have had only one big game at the plate so far this season.  Other than one strong game, Tampa Bay's other 4 games have seen them average only 6 hits per game!  Soroka versus Morton, per our computer math model, is set up perfect to be a pitchers duel.  Bet the UNDER in Atlanta in early evening action Wednesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 6:05 PM ET

The Blue  Jays ended up without Bo Bichette, Randal Grichuk, and Travis Shaw on Monday and yet Toronto still finished with 4 homers in the game.  The problem for anyone who had the over in Monday's contest was that all 4 homers were solo shots in the 4-1 win.  The other problem (speaking for those who had the over) was that the Blue Jays recorded 4 double plays, the teams went a combined 2 for 14 with runners in scoring position and the Nationals scored just 1 run despite 10 hits.  All these signs point to a much higher scoring match-up on Tuesday even if the above mentioned players are again out of the lineup (although 1 or 2 are likely to be back in it).  The key is the pitching match-up here and the fact that the Nationals wasted so many opportunities Monday and are likely to bounce back huge at the plate after the 4-1 home loss.  The Blue Jays are starting former Nat Tanner Roark and he was very hittable in summer camp and got hit at a .279 clip on the road last season.  He is a combined 19-25 the past two seasons and has had unimpressive ERAs for the season the past 3 years since his phenomenal 2016 campaign.  Roark may be guilty of "overthrowing" here as emotion gets the best of him as he faces his former team in DC.  Also, Blue Jays closer Ken Giles is out with an injury!  We also look for the Nationals starting pitcher, Austin Voth, to struggle in this one.  The right-hander struggled against left-handed bats last season in terms of batting average against and the Jays had 4 left-handed bats in last night's lineup.  Against righties, Voth had trouble in terms of power with 4 homers allowed in 24 innings versus righties.  The Jays proved again last night, even without their full lineup, that they have plenty of power as they knocked 4 out of the park.   Toronto entered this season with plenty expected at the plate but they faced the pitching-rich Rays to open the season and that held them back some.  On Tuesday they take advantage of facing the Nats #5 starter.  At the same time, the Nationals run production picks up after a crazy result in Monday's game filled with wasted opportunities for the home team.  Bet the OVER in Washington in early evening action Tuesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Money Line: Los Angeles Angels over Oakland A's, Monday at 3:40 PM ET

The A's are up 2-1 in this 4-game series but this has been a series that could have gone either way thus far.  Arguably the Angels could be up 3-0 and should be up at least 2-1 in this 4-game set.  That factor along with the pitching edge here is why this line opened up with Oakland as such a short home favorite.  The Angels opened up as a very small underdog for a reason.  The first game between these 3 teams show a 7-3 final but the A's hit a grand slam for the win in the bottom of the 10th.  The second game saw the Angels win 4-1.  Then Sunday's game saw Shohei Ohtani of the Angels allow 5 earned runs without recording an out in the first inning!  That set up the A's perfectly but the Angels outscored Oakland 4-1 the rest of the way.  We like the resilient Angels to again respond off a loss just like they did in Saturday's game.  Los Angeles starts Griffin Canning here and he had a 3.80 ERA in his day game starts last season while holding opponents to a .224 batting average.  He enters this start off a great tune up to wrap up summer camp as he pitched 6 scoreless innings in that start and allowed just 3 hits while striking out 5.  Canning is ready for an A's team that has not been swinging the bats particularly well early this season.  Look for the Angels to get to A's starter Chris Bassitt early and often.  In looking at the A's starting pitchers he is the one least ready for the season in terms of having arm strength built up.  Bassitt has a history of struggles with the Angels and that includes allowing 11 runs (7 earned) in 9 innings spanning his two career home starts versus LA.  This is a potent Angels lineup that has the right match-up here for a breakout game and, per our computer math model, they roll to a road rout in this one.  Bet the Angels on the money line in afternoon action Monday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET

Kenta Maeda gets the start for the Twins here.  He had some impressive numbers (at times) in LA courtesy of pitching in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium.  On the road was a different story for Maeda.  Last season was the 2nd time in the past 3 seasons that Maeda had an ERA north of 5.00 away from home.  Now he faces a White Sox team that pounded out 5 homers in yesterday's 10-3 win over the Twins.  It will be hot and humid weather with the wind expected to be blowing out to left-center at Guaranteed Rate Field Sunday.  Minnesota, 10-5 winners Friday, will also take advantage of this.  Per our computer math model, there will be plenty of runs scored in this Sunday match-up with a result similar to the first two games of the series.  The White Sox are starting Reynaldo Lopez here.  The righty particularly struggled against left-handed batters last season and it is likely that about half of the Twins lineup will step in on that side of the plate Sunday.  Remember that Friday's game - an explosion on offense for Minny - came against a right-handed starter.  Lopez had all sorts of trouble with the Twins last season (0-3, 9.60 ERA) and we expect more of the same here.  The icing on the cake for this match-up is that both bullpens have been used extensively already in this high-scoring series so, after these two starters get knocked out early (likely), each pen will be put in a tough spot as this game goes on.  Plus the White Sox really got to the Twins pen yesterday and Minny gave the Chicago pen trouble in Friday's game.  Bet the OVER in Chicago White Sox in early afternoon action Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Friday at 7:05 PM ET

First off, you won't find us laying 2 to 1 odds on a money line. But we can get great value here (+105/+100 range as of Thursday night) by utilizing the run line (-1.5 runs) in this match-up. With that said, there is plenty of support for expecting a lopsided game at Citizens Bank Stadium Friday evening. The Marlins are one of the worst teams in baseball. Last season Miami went 57-105 and that included an ugly 27-54 in road games. Not only do they lose 2 out of every 3 road games but how likely is a blowout loss here? The Marlins lost 77 games by 2 or more runs last season! That means about 3 of every 4 Miami losses comes by a margin of multiple runs. The Phillies saw 61 of their 81 wins last season come by a victory margin of at least 2 runs. Per our computer math model, this one will too. The Phillies Aaron Nola allowed only 2 earned runs in 14 and 2 / 3 innings of work at home against the Marlins last season. Overall at home Nola dominated last season (charged with just 2 losses all season) as he held opponents to a .219 batting average while racking up a 2.91 ERA! Miami starts Sandy Alcantara here and he is a respectable starter. However, the Phillies have given him some trouble and hit him quite hard. In Alacantara's match-ups with Philly in 2019 he was hit at a .333 clip. Alcantara allowed 27 hits plus walked 7 against the Phillies in 18 and 2 / 3 innings. That is nearly 2 base runners allowed per inning and that leads to trouble in no time. The Marlins are again projected to be one of the worst teams in baseball while the Phillies should challenge for the NL East title in this shortened 60-game season. This is a mismatch in terms of the lineup and the pitching and a strong play on the home team is in order here. Bet the Phillies -1.5 runs in early evening action Friday.

ASA PLAY 7* ON Money Line: Houston Astros (-) over Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 8:07 PM ET

It is not often at all that we lay prices in the -175 range but we feel strongly that this will be the final game of the 2019 MLB season as we fully expect Houston to wrap up the World Series in Game 6.  With that being said, we won't hesitate in making the investment, albeit for a lower rating, at the -175 price Tuesday.  The Astros were left for dead after dropping the first two games of this series on their home field.  However, Houston responded not only by winning 3 straight games but by absolutely dominating the results.  The Astros have won 3 straight by a combined score of 19-3.  The Nationals bats have suddenly gone silent and facing a revenge-minded Justin Verlander is unlikely to help matters.  Prior to struggling a bit in Game 2 of this series at home, Verlander had allowed just 10 hits while striking out 16 in two consecutive starts against the Yankees.  Also, at home in the post-season prior to some struggles against the Nationals in Game 2, Verlander had allowed just 2 earned runs on only 6 hits in 13 and 2 / 3 innings at Minute Maid Park.  Washington's Stephen Strasburg has been pitching well but the Astros lineup has cranked things up a notch in these last 3 games.  With all the momentum, and entering this game an incredible 24-5 this season when playing with a day off, look for the Astros to close out the series with Verlander finally getting his first ever World Series victory in a series-clincher Game 6 beauty!  Bet Houston on the money line in evening action Tuesday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Money Line: Houston Astros (-) over Washington Nationals, Friday at 8:07 PM ET

The Astros turn to Zack Greinke in what is essentially a must-win situation in Game 3 at Washington.  Houston can get right back into the series with a win here and Greinke is 5-1 in his 8 career starts against the Nationals.  Amazingly, Greinke has allowed only 1 earned run total in his last 4 starts against the Nats.  He has certainly fared well at this park!  In his last two start at Washington, Greinke has not allowed a single run and has given up just 5 hits while striking out 14 batters in 15 and 1 / 3 innings.  Houston has won 44 of 67 this season as a road favorite of -125 or more.  After getting embarrassed in Game 2 at home, the Astros can be anticipated to respond here.  Houston is 9-3 the last dozen times when revenging a loss where an opponent scored 12 or more runs against them.  Washington has lost 10 of 13 games as a home underdog of +125 or more.  Though it has been a few years since the Nationals Anibal Sanchez has faced the Astros it would not be surprising if he still has some bad flashbacks about those outings.  In his last two starts against Houston, Sanchez has given up 12 runs (11 earned) in 10 and 2 / 3 innings.  Per our computer math model, more of the same is expected here as this one turns into the road rout the Astros desperately need to get back into the series.  Bet Houston on the money line in evening action Friday

ASA PLAY 9* ON UNDER: Washington Nationals at Houston Astros, Tuesday at 8:08 PM ET

The Astros Gerrit Cole had made 3 starts in the post-season and has allowed a total of only ONE earned run while striking out 32 in 22 and 2 / 3 innings.  Opponents are hitting just .132 against Cole in the playoffs.  In the regular season this year at home he went 12-2 and held opponents to a .175 batting average.  Cole is simply dominant in 2019 but the Nationals Max Scherzer is definitely not too far behind.  Scherzer has a 1.80 ERA in the post-season this year and he has held hitters to a .134 batting average.  On the road in this post-season he has allowed just 1 hit in 8 innings while striking out 14!  Also, in the regular season this year Scherzer went 7-2 with a 2.64 ERA in his 12 road starts!  Overall, 5 of the last 6 starts made by Scherzer have resulted in an under.  In Cole's last 7 starts there have been 5 unders, 1 over, and 1 push.  Per our computer math model, those trends continue here with a very low-scoring match-up expected as the World Series gets underway with rested bullpens and red hot starting pitchers.  Bet the UNDER in Houston in Game 1 of the World Series Tuesday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Money Line: Houston Astros (-) over New York Yankees, Tuesday at 4:08 PM ET

We were watching this line this morning and we now have very strong value being offered with the road favorite Astros.  Houston was as high as a -170 when this line was first posted.  Now the line has dropped into the -145 range as of mid-morning Tuesday.  Gerrit Cole and the Astros are offering great value here.  This is the 3rd post-season in which Cole has made at least 2 starts and, in each of them, he has held hitters to a .184 batting average or less.  In his two starts so far in this post-season he has struck out 25 batters and allowed just 1 earned run on 6 hits in 15 and 2 / 3 innings.  His post-season dominance is not a huge surprise considering, since coming to the Astros, Cole has gone 35-10 with a 2.68 ERA in regular season action.  Opponents have been held below a .200 batting average in each of Cole's first two seasons with Houston.  The Yankees counter with Luis Severino here and he has a 5.33 ERA in 7 career post-season starts.  Also, Severino missed most of this season due to recovering from injury and so he made only 3 September starts and 1 post-season start.  Though he did not allow a earned run in his starts against the Twins in ALDS action, Severino did given up 4 hits and walked 2 in his 4 innings.  He certainly is not on Cole's level at this point in time and also can not be expected to go nearly as deep into this game.  The Astros also can ride the momentum of their dramatic Game 2 victory on Sunday.  Value is the key with this favorable line and we'll take it...lay the fair price with the road team in this one.  Bet Houston on the money line in afternoon action Tuesday

ASA PLAY 9* ON UNDER: St Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals, Monday at 7:37 PM ET

Since the All Star Break, the Cardinals Jack Flaherty has made 17 starts including 2 in this post-season.  In this stretch he has gone 8-3 with a 1.12 ERA!  Superb pitching for Flaherty and he has an added "edge factor" here as the Nationals have not faced him this season.  Not only is Flaherty, per our computer math model, in line for an other fantastic outing here, Washington's Stephen Strasburg is also likely to hold the bats in check tonight.  The veteran right-hander has tremendous post-season history.  Strasburg has a 1.32 in his 6 career post-season appearances and this includes racking up 45 strikeouts in those 34 innings!  St Louis has not enjoyed much success at all against him in recent seasons including a pair of starts this season.  In the Nationals last 13 playoff games, 1 total was a push and the other dozen saw 9 unders and just 3 overs.  That trend continues in Game 3 of the NLCS as another pitchers duel expected here!  Additionally, with the day off between games as the series switched location from St Louis to DC, both bullpens are in good shape for tonight's game as well.  Bet the UNDER in Washington in early evening action Monday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday at 8:37 PM ET

It is hard to fathom any scenario that involves many runs being scored in this match-up.  Game 5 first round post-season elimination game, all bullpen arms rested and at the ready thanks to yesterday's off day, and a pair of dominating starting pitchers on the mound.  The Nationals are starting Stephen Strasburg and he has an incredible 0.64 ERA in his 5 post-season appearances (4 starts) in his career.  The Dodgers are starting Walker Buehler and he has not allowed an earned run in his last 16 and 2 / 3 innings of post-season work.  Buehler has held opponents to a .167 batting average in his 5 career post-season starts.  Strasburg has held opponents to just 11 hits in 23 innings spanning his last 4 post-season appearances (3 starts).  The under has cashed in 7 of the Nationals last 9 playoff games and, per our computer math model, that trend continues on Wednesday.  We look for the under to improve to a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times that the Dodgers were in a playoff game facing elimination.  Pitchers duel expected here!  Bet the UNDER in LA Dodgers in evening action Wednesday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Money Line: St Louis Cardinals (-) over Atlanta Braves, Monday at 3:07 PM ET

The Cardinals ended up with the split at Atlanta which was key for them as they only played .500 ball on the road this season.  However, after a tough loss in Game 3 where they blew the save in the top of the 9th, let us not forget they finished the regular season 19 games above .500 at home.  After dropping Sunday's game at Busch Stadium, the Cardinals should bounce back here.  The Braves are starting Dallas Keuchel on short rest and he allowed 5 hits and walked 3 Thursday in a start where he was unable to complete 5 innings.  With this game being at Busch Stadium, where Dakota Hudson pitched very well this season, look for the Cardinals to extend this series to a deciding Game 5.  Hudson went 9-2 at home with a 2.75 ERA this season!  Note also that Braves starter Keuchel had zero strikeouts in his Game 1 start in this series.  Also, in his 3 final regular season starts, the Atlanta southpaw compiled a 6.19 ERA.  We have the more rested starting pitcher whom also is in better current form plus we have the home field edge and we can lay a very fair price in a game that is a must win for the Cardinals!  We'll take it...lay the small price with the home team in this one.  Bet St Louis on the money line in afternoon action Monday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Money Line: St Louis Cardinals (+) over Atlanta Braves, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET

The Cardinals ended up with the split at Atlanta which was key for them as they only played .500 ball on the road this season.  However, now they are back home where they finished the season 19 games above .500 and where Adam Wainwright pitched very well this season.  Wainwright went 9-4 at home with a 2.56 ERA and this is typical for him at Busch Stadium.  He missed much of the 2018 season but in 2017 he went 8-1 with a 3.08 ERA at home.  In 2016 Wainwright went 7-4 with a 3.20 ERA at Busch Stadium.  In his career he has a 3.03 ERA in post-season action including a 1.72 ERA at Busch Stadium for the Cardinals.  The Braves start Mike Soroka here.  He allowed 3 or more earned runs in 3 of his 5 September starts as Soroka certainly tailed off toward the end of the regular season.  More struggles likely here as the Cardinals bounce back at home where they are 13-6 this season as a home underdog!  The Braves went 8-14 this season when playing with a day off.  Bet St Louis on the money line in afternoon action Sunday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Money Line: St Louis Cardinals (-) over Atlanta Braves, Friday at 4:35 PM ET

The markets have pushed the Cardinals down to a pick'em price range after they opened up in the -125/-130 price range.  Of course this has to do with the simple fact that many find it hard to believe that the Braves would fall into an 0-2 hole in this series by losing both home games.  The fact is however that these things happen and St Louis does rate a pitching edge in this match-up.  Before we discuss the starters lets talk about the bullpens.  The Cardinals bullpen ranked #1 in the majors this season in terms of opponents batting average as they allowed just .219 to opposing hitters.  To put that in perspective, Atlanta allowed 33 points higher at .252 and that ranks them 19th in the majors.  As for the starting pitchers here, Jack Flaherty was absolutely phenomenal over his last 15 starts as he compiled a 0.91 ERA after the All Star break!  Additionally, Flaherty compiled a 2.25 ERA in his two starts against the Braves this season and those were in the first half of the season.  He wasn't even in top form then like he is now so this projects to be a frustrating afternoon for Atlanta at the plate.  As for Braves starter Mike Foltneywicz, he did finish the season with a strong September.  However, in his career he has hosted the Cardinals 3 times as a starter and all 3 outings were a disaster.  Foltneywicz allowed 21 earned runs in 13 and 1 / 3 innings!  St Louis has plenty of confidence at the plate in this match-up and, per our computer math model, the Cardinals will have Foltneywicz on the ropes early in this one and then also, just like Game 1, take advantage of Atlanta's bullpen as well.  Bet St Louis on the money line in afternoon action Friday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Money Line: Washington Nationals (+) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Thursday at 8:35 PM ET

It is not often you see will team in the +155 money line range when they enter a match-up carrying a 9-game winning streak.  However, that is the case here and we won't hesitate to step in.  Adding to the value here is the fact that Patrick Corbin is on the mound for the Nationals.  The Washington southpaw has a 3.36 ERA in his 21 career outings (19 starts) versus the Dodgers.  Corbin dominated LA with 7 scoreless innings when he faced them in May.  Corbin is 7-2 with a 3.15 ERA since the All Star break.  The Dodgers start Walker Buehler in this one.  The right-hander gave up 7 runs (4 earned) in only 5 and 1 / 3 innings when he most recently faced Washington (in late June).  Also, in his final two home starts of the regular season Buehler allowed 10 earned runs in 11 innings of work and gave up a pair of homers in each of those two outings.  So, while it is true that the Dodgers also finished the season hot just like the Nationals did, the combination of line value and a starting pitching edge make this a must play in our opinion.  Bet Washington on the money line in evening action Thursday

ASA PLAY 9* ON UNDER: Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland A's, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET

The under has cashed in 4 of the 5 starts Sean Manaea has made since returning to the starting rotation last month.  Manaea has been very sharp as he has a 1.21 ERA in those 5 starts.  This one is likely to be a pitchers duel as Tampa's Charlie Morton has had another strong season and he also has great numbers against Oakland.  Morton has a 2.97 ERA against the A's in his career and that includes a spectacular 0.68 ERA in his two starts against the Athletics this season.  The under has cashed in 3 of the last 4 starts Morton has made against the A's.  Both of the home starts Manaea has made against the Rays in his career also had an under result.  The Rays enter this wild card game with the under having cashed in 4 of their last 5 games.  The A's enter this wild card game with the under having cashed in each of their last 6 games.  Per our computer math model, these trends continue here with a low-scoring pitchers duel.  Each of these teams have strong bullpens as well with the Rays pen having the lowest ERA in the majors and the A's are close behind them.  Bet the UNDER in Oakland in evening action Wednesday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Money Line: Milwaukee Brewers (-) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET

With the Brewers off an ugly loss yesterday where their bullpen suffered a rare implosion, this is a great spot to back Milwaukee at a manageable price as a road favorite.  Originally this line was much higher for Saturday's game but with Ryan Braun getting hurt in yesterday's game and Mike Moustakas dealing with an elbow injury and Lorenzo Cain still a bit hobbled, this line has plummeted.  It has led to great line value as the line is now in the -140 range as of mid-morning Saturday.  The pitching match-up here offers a solid edge for the Brewers.  Gio Gonzalez has a 1.47 ERA in 5 appearances (3 starts) in the month of September.  He has made 9 road starts this season and has a 3.07 ERA away from Miller Park.  Chi Chi Gonzalez gets the start for the Rockies here and he is off a rare quality outing.  That makes it the perfect time to fade him after a rare strong game.  Chi Chi has struggled at Coors Field this season as he has a 6.41 ERA in his home outings and has been hit at a .309 clip in those 5 starts.  While Chi Chi has struggled here, Gio has a respectable (especially by Coors Field standards) 4.60 ERA in his 3 career starts at Colorado.  The Rockies have lost 27 of their last 42 games against teams with winning record.  Milwaukee has won 21 of their past 26 games.  The Brewers also are 49-31 (+17.1 net units) when off a loss by a margin of 4 or more runs.  Milwaukee bounces back here as they continue to stay alive in the race for the NL Central Division title.  The Brewers haven't lost back to back games the entire month of September and we look for that stat to remain intact on Saturday.  Bet Milwaukee on the money line in evening action Saturday

ASA PLAY 9* ON Money Line: Cincinnati Reds (-) over Milwaukee Brewers, Thursday at 12:35 PM ET

The odds makers had this right when they opened up it up with the Reds at nearly a -155 favorite!  While that may seem like a strange line considering the current record of these two teams, there are a couple of key factors as to why it opened (and should have remained) in that range.  Now that the markets have pushed Cincinnati down to a -115 price range on this one, it is time to get involved!  The Brewers have been one of the hottest teams in MLB but this is the spot for a letdown.  After Milwaukee clinched a playoff spot last night with a huge win punctuated by a Ryan Braun grand slam, they now have an ultra early game the very next day.  This is a classic flat spot.  Also, the Brewers are at a decided disadvantage here when it comes to the pitching match-up.  Chase Anderson gets the start and has a 5.53 ERA in road games and a 5.32 ERA in day games and has a 5.51 ERA when facing Cincinnati this season.  The Reds Luis Castillo has faced the Brewers 4 times this season and has held them to a .158 batting average!  Castillo also has been great at home (2.91 ERA) and in day games (2.82 ERA).  Lay the small price with the undervalued home team in this one!  Bet Cincinnati on the money line in very early afternoon action Thursday

ASA PLAY 9* ON UNDER: Atlanta Braves at Kansas City Royals, Wednesday at 8:15 PM ET

The money line on the Braves has dropped sharply today.  That makes perfect sense because with the Dodgers winning their past two games and Atlanta dropping two straight, the Braves have nothing left to play for.  Atlanta has already clinched the NL East and also can not catch Los Angeles for home field in the NL post-season.  As a result, it is time to give some guys some rest.  So we've seen that adjustment on the money line with today's game but there has not been a proper adjustment on the total.  In fact this total is all the way up to a 10 even though the Braves aren't likely to have their heads fully into this game.  That being said, we love the under here because there is reason to believe both starting pitchers enjoy plenty of success in this one.  The Royals Mike Montgomery has struggled on the road all season but he has been great when pitching as a host this year.  Montgomery has a 2.17 ERA in his 14 appearances (6 starts) at home this season.  The Braves are giving this start to Josh Tomlin and the right-hander is pushing hard for a spot on the post-season roster so you know he is going to bring a strong effort here.  This will be Tomlin's first start this season but he has made 144 starts in his MLB career and his spot on the post-season roster would be as a long reliever.  He is fully capable of giving Atlanta 3 or 4 solid innings here.  Also, the Braves bullpen ranks in the top 5 in the NL this season for bullpen ERA so even in a bullpen game today, don't expect the Royals to repeat yesterday's unusual success at the plate.  Per our computer math model, this total is far too high as the forecast is for a 4-3 type game.  Bet the UNDER in Kansas City in evening action Wednesday

ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER: Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 1:05 PM ET

The Phillies are treating this as a "bullpen game" as Blake Parker will be making the start following 286 MLB appearances without ever making a start.  Of course it is a bad news when a team whose bullpen has been struggling badly (part of their last season collapse) and yet is forced to go with a "bullpen game".  Philadelphia doesn't have much choice as they are running out of starters with a compressed season-ending schedule that includes this series of 5 games against the Nationals in 4 days.  Washington is starting Joe Ross in Game 1 of this double-header and he can be considered a questionable starter as well.  The reason for that is because Ross has been out for three weeks due to a forearm injury so it is unlikely that he comes in here and suddenly pitches a masterpiece.  He had a 5.01 ERA in 2017, 5.06 ERA in 2018, and has a 6.17 ERA in 2019!  Even more concerning for Ross in terms of this particular match-up is that he has a 7.71 ERA in day games and a 10.45 ERA in home games this season!  Additionally, it is not only the Phillies bullpen that is a concern here.  The Nationals bullpen has a 5.85 ERA on the season and that ranks them #30 out of all 30 MLB teams!  Given all of the above, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for plenty of runs early, often, and throughout this one!  Bet the OVER in Washington (Game 1 of DH) in early afternoon action Tuesday

ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER:  Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, Monday at 7:07 PM ET

Chandler Shepherd, rather than Dylan Bundy, is expected to get this start for Baltimore.  We had this play circled no matter whom the starter was for the Orioles.  That's because Bundy has had another rough season and Shepherd has logged only 11 innings at the MLB level.  The rookie right-hander faces his toughest test yet today.  That's because this will be the first time he is making an appearance against an MLB team for a second time.  Making the situation even tougher, Shepherd just faced the Blue Jays last week.  He allowed 3 earned runs in only 4 innings in that start and now he faces them again and this time it is in their house!  This is unlikely to go well.  Speaking of rough starts, the Jays Clay Buchholz has had plenty of those this season.  The right-hander has been particularly struggling of late.  He has a 9.22 ERA in his 3 starts this month.  Additionally, he has been bad under the lights this season as Buchholz has compiled an 8.20 ERA in his 4 night starts this year.  Also, while the Toronto bullpen rates in the middle of the pack this season, the Orioles 5.72 ERA rates their bullpen as the worst in the American League.  In a game where the hitters also have no pressure (no concern about play-offs for either one of these teams), look for plenty of runs in this one.  Our computer math model is calling for a dozen runs north of the border on Monday.  Bet the OVER in the Blue Jays game in early evening action Monday

ASA PLAY 7* ON Run Line: New York Yankees (-1.5 runs) over Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 1:05 PM ET

Even on the run line in this match-up the Yankees are still in the -160 price range but New York is well worth the investment here.  The biggest upset on the board yesterday was the Blue Jays knocking off the Yankees and it is now payback time today!  The Yankees are starting James Paxton and he is an incredible 9-0 his last 9 starts.  In these 9 outings he has compiled a 2.50 ERA and the Yankees have won 8 of the 9 games by a margin of 2 or more runs.  That is why we're very comfortable with the run line here because, in fact, the average margin of victory in these 9 consecutive wins is a very impressive SIX runs per game.  The Yankees aren't just winning with Paxton on the mound, they are annihilating the opposition.  That should continue here as the New York lineup gets another shot at Blue Jays rookie TJ Zeuch.  He has a 1.61 WHIP in his 3 appearances (1 start) and the Yankees will make him pay for his continued problem with issuing too many walks.  This will be the first time Zeuch is facing an MLB opponent for a 2nd time and this type of situation is generally very tough on a rookie hurler.  We look for that to be the case again here and, per our computer math model, the Yankees win this on in a home blowout!  Bet the Yankees -1.5 runs in early afternoon action Saturday

ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER:  Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees, Thursday at 6:35 PM ET

The Yankees lineup will be ready to bounce back strong at home after yesterday's disappointing 3-2 home loss.  That game featured an unreal amount of wasted opportunities as the Yankees went 0 for 9 with runners in scoring position.  Also, through the first 7 innings of that game the Angels left 13 men on base - an unheard of average of 1.9 baserunners left on base per inning!  Based on the pitching match-up tonight, look for both lineups to cash in the same type of opportunities that were wasted last night.  The Yankees Masahiro Tanaka had a 2.94 ERA as of late May but it has since ballooned to a 4.60 ERA on the season. . He has allowed 4 or more earned runs in 11 of his last 19 starts including back to back outings entering this one.  The Angels counter with Andrew Heaney here and the southpaw has an 8.79 ERA in his 3 September starts.  Heaney has been hit hard in all 3 starts as opponents are hitting .371 against him this month.  The Bronx Bombers bounce back at the plate but the Angels score their fair share as well and that sends this one past the short number (9) that this total opened up at.  Bet the OVER in the Yankees game in early evening action Thursday

ASA PLAY 9* ON OVER:  Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET

The Pirates are off a rare home shutout loss and will bounce back at the plate here.  However, the Mariners lineup is going to have another solid night at the plate and that is why the play in this one is the over.  Both starting pitchers have a strong likelihood of struggling here and these are two of the worst bullpens in baseball on the season.  Seattle's bullpen has a 5.00 ERA on the season and Pittsburgh's bullpen has a 4.97 ERA on the season.  Mariners starter Justin Dunn is just 23 years old and his MLB debut did not go well as he didn't even make it out of the first inning.  He could not find the plate and walked 5 batters in 2 / 3 of an inning.  Of course he'll pitch better in his 2nd start but as shown in his first start, getting into a little trouble can quickly spiral out of control for the young right-hander.  Dunn is making the jump from AA ball all the way to the bigs to gain some experience here but skipping right past the AAA level he's going to have some struggles facing major league hitters!  Speaking of struggles against MLB hitters, rookie right-hander Dario Agrazal is on the mound for Pittsburgh in this one.  The 24-year old right-hander has a 7.08 ERA in his eight appearances since late July.  Agrazal is facing a Mariners team that is 5-2 last 7 games and scoring an average of 6 runs per game.  One final note here is that Dunn and Tommy Milone are expected to share the pitching duties for Seattle in this one.  No matter who starts in this game we like the over.  Pittsburgh had averaged 6 runs per game in their 17 games preceding yesterday's rare home shutout.  Note that Milone is 3-9 with a 4.93 ERA this season and this is the 4th straight season he has struggled.  Bet the OVER in the Pirates game in early evening action Wednesday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Atlanta Braves (-1.5 runs) over Philadelphia Phillies, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET

Great set up here as both teams were off yesterday and the Braves still have plenty to play for while the Phillies are down and out.  Philadelphia has seen their wild card playoff chances slip away due to a late season slump while the Braves are still looking to officially lock up the NL East.  Also, Atlanta still has home field motivation as well as they battle with the Dodgers for the #1 spot in the NL.  Of course the above, plus a big pitching edge, is why the Braves are priced as a big favorite here.  We'll avoid the big price on the money line by making use of the run line in this match-up.  Atlanta is available for a play here without juice if we lay the 1.5 runs and there is certainly likelihood of a home blowout here.  The Phillies are 6-15 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175.  The Braves are off a shutout loss on Sunday and Atlanta is 18-8 this season after scoring 2 runs or less in their prior game.  Also, Philadelphia is 0-6 in the last 6 starts Vince Velasquez has made against the Braves.  Velasquez has gone 0-5 in those 6 games and has compiled an 8.46 ERA in those 6 outings!  This is not outdated history either.  All 6 of these starts have come since the start of last season.  Also, Velasquez enters this start struggling overall as he has a 5.48 ERA in the 14 starts he has made since rejoining the rotation.  Dallas Keuchel gets the start for the Braves here and he has allowed 2 or less earned runs in all 4 of the starts he has made against the Phillies in his career and that includes a pair of outings this season as well.  Additionally, Keuchel enters this start in top current form as he has an 0.97 ERA in his last six starts overall.  21 of the Phillies 29 losses since the All Star break have come by a margin of 2 or more runs.  29 of the Braves 39 wins since the All Star break have come by a margin of 2 or more runs.  Lay it as Atlanta bounces back from Sunday's shutout loss!  Bet the Braves -1.5 runs in early evening action Tuesday