06-15-21 |
Pirates v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
1-8 |
Loss |
-101 |
7 h 54 m |
Show
|
#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET – The Pirates have lost 8 straight games and have scored an average of only 2.5 runs per game during this losing streak. The Nationals have seen 10 of their last 12 games stay under the total. Washington has scored an average of only 2.2 runs per game in those 10 match-ups that stayed under the total. 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams at DC have stayed under the total. Looking at the full season ERA numbers for these two pitchers it may seem contrarian to be on the under but this play is about more than just a pair of struggling lineups. Let's talk about those starting pitchers. Tyler Anderson has held opponents to a paltry .220 batting average while striking out 32 in 29 and 2/3 innings spanning his 5 road starts this season. Patrick Corbin has an amazing 0.41 ERA over his last 3 starts against Pittsburgh and has struck out 27 while allowing just 10 hits in 22 innings spanning those 3 starts against the Pirates. That said, all signs point to an under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Tuesday. We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER
|
06-14-21 |
Cubs v. Mets OVER 8.5 |
Top |
2-5 |
Loss |
-113 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
|
#953/954 ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets, 7:10 PM ET - The Cubs are off a low-scoring 2-0 win at home versus the Cardinals last night. The Mets are off a 7-3 home loss to the Padres which went over the total. 9 of New York's 13 games dating to late May have resulted in an over. The Cubs Jake Arrieta has seen his starts lead to a high percentage of unders this season but this has truly been an anomaly and is highly unlikely to continue. Prior to a rare strong start in his last outing, Arrieta had an 8.28 ERA over his 6 preceding starts. On the road this season the veteran right-hander has a 6.40 ERA in 7 starts. David Peterson gets the start for the Mets but it is certainly not based on merit as his days in the rotation could be numbered. Peterson is having a very rough time with a 1-5 record and 6.32 ERA on the season. Things have not been improving for the Mets southpaw either as he has a 9.88 ERA over his last four starts. The Cubs have won 5 straight games and will have plenty of confidence against Peterson as they averaged 6.3 runs in the first 4 games of their hot streak. Last night's Cubs game was a pitchers duel but you can see why this one will be anything but that. Also, Peterson had a rough start at Chicago earlier this season and now faces the Cubs at home where he has allowed 6 earned runs in 7 and 2 / 3 innings his past two starts. Couple that with Arrieta's long-term struggles (his last start notwithstanding) and this should be a highly entertaining game with plenty of fireworks. . This total is in the 9 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one. Bet Over
|
06-13-21 |
Angels v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 |
Top |
10-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 18 m |
Show
|
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9.5 Los Angeles Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 4:10 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have been the worst team in baseball this season but the over trend in their games continues and this is the perfect spot for another one. Arizona actually has the #1 slugging percentage, .445, in day games this season. Also, the Diamondbacks rank in the top ten in the majors for slugging percentage against left-handed pitching and in home games. That being said, there is solid value here in going against Patrick Sandoval of the Angels. He has some good numbers this season but those have come at home. He did have one road start and was successful in that one but he got hit harder than you would think just from looking at the box score and Sandoval had to work out of multiple jams in that one. In his only road appearance out of the bullpen this season he got hit hard. Last season Sandoval was 1-4 with a 6.87 ERA on the road. In the prior year, his rookie season, he was winless in 5 games (4 starts) on the road and had a 6.52 ERA. The over is a perfect 8-0 in Arizona's last 8 home games. The Diamondbacks have scored an average of 5.6 runs in those games. Arizona has allowed an average of 6.2 runs per game in those home contests. With Jon Duplantier getting the start here, those runs against numbers are unlikely to improve! Duplantier is winless with a 10.03 ERA in his 3 starts this season. His only prior MLB experience was in 2019 when he pitched in 15 games and opponents hit .283 against him. He has labored this season and Duplantier has yet to complete 5 innings in a start. Considering the Diamondbacks bullpen has a 4.62 ERA and a majors-worst .271 BAA, that spells trouble for Arizona in this one. The Diamondbacks are on a 5-32 run but they can hit Sandoval here and that is why the over is the play. Arizona gives up tons of runs but they can score plenty too especially in a day game at home. Also, the Angels hot bats have helped lead the way to an 8-2 run in which Los Angeles has scored an average of 7.4 runs in the 8 victories. This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one. Bet Over
|
06-10-21 |
Blue Jays v. White Sox OVER 8.5 |
Top |
2-5 |
Loss |
-121 |
8 h 17 m |
Show
|
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox, 8:10 PM ET - This total opened up at an 8 yesterday and is now up to a 9 this morning. This is despite the fact that each of these teams have trended under recently. What this tells us of course is that some sharp action is coming in on the over in this one and this game was already on our radar for a potential play Thursday and now it is go time. Chicago's Dallas Keuchel has a 4.81 ERA in home starts this season and the O/U is 4-2 in those outings. He has a respectable ERA last 3 starts but has given up 19 hits in the 15 innings over those 3 starts. Also, Keuchel has given up 4 homers in his last 2 starts and both of those games went over the total. The O/U is 3-0 in Hyun Jin Ryu's last 3 starts. In this battle of southpaws, the Blue Jays left-hander is likely to struggle. The White Sox are one of the top hitting and top slugging teams in the majors when facing lefties. Also, Ryu is off a very rough start against the Astros in which he allowed 6 earned runs in 5 and 2 / 3 innings and only struck out one while walking three. That game was at home and now Ryu is on the road where he has trended with higher ERA's than at home in each of his last 4 seasons and that trend holding true this season as well. The Blue Jays have scored an average of 5.4 runs in 5 most recent road games. The White Sox have averaged scoring 6.7 runs a game this season in games against left-handed starters. This total is in the 9 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one. Bet Over
|
06-09-21 |
Astros v. Red Sox OVER 10 |
Top |
8-3 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
|
ASA top play on 10* OVER 10 Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox, 7:10 PM ET - We already had our eyes on this one based on the pitching match-up and now a couple of other factors solidified this play. Yesterday's game was 7-1 through 4 innings and stayed that way! As a result the game stayed under the total even though the teams had 8 runs through the first 4 frames. We like coming back with overs a day after a game like that. Another factor we like here is that it will be another very warm day today in Boston so good weather for an over is expected this evening at Fenway Park. Back to the pitching match-up which had us eyeing this game, the Red Sox start Nathan Eovaldi here and he has a 4.47 ERA at home this season which is more than 2 runs higher than what he has produced in road games this season. Now he takes on a surging Astros team that has won 7 of 9 games and has scored an average of 6.2 runs in the last 10 games. Though the Red Sox lost yesterday and managed just 1 run, this was on the heels of a 5-game winning streak in which they produced 5.6 runs per game. Tonight Boston will take advantage of facing a struggling Jake Odorizzi. He only recently came back from an injury and his overall struggles this season have continued. He is 0-3 with a 7.16 ERA in his five starts. In limited action last season, Odorizzi also was winless and he had a 6.59 ERA in four starts. This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one. Bet Over
|
06-04-21 |
Diamondbacks v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 55 m |
Show
|
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers, Friday at 8:10 PM ET – The Diamondbacks Matt Peacock has been impressive. His most recent outing was a quality start and this followed a strong start against a tough Dodgers team at Los Angeles. In fact, Peacock has been very strong on the road this season with a 0.79 ERA in 4 games (1 start) away from home this season. The Brewers lost Lorenzo Cain to injury recently and though his numbers had been down this season he had been heating up since mid-May. Another injury situation came up last night with Kolten Wong exiting the game in the 4th inning. Milwaukee did get the big win last night but managed only 7 hits and the injury issues are not helping matters for a team averaging just 3.7 runs per game at home this season. The Diamondbacks did pile up hits yesterday but that is unlikely to be the case again tonight. The Brewers start Freddy Peralta here and he has been fantastic. Peralta is 5-1 with a 2.38 ERA this season while striking out 83 in 56 and 2 / 3 innings while allowing only 28 hits. Also, this will be the first start these pitchers are making against these opponents so there is little to no familiarity for the hitters against these pitchers. The Diamondbacks will struggle against Peralta and the Brewers last 4 games when facing a right-handed starter have seen them total only 18 hits! That is an average of 4.5 hits per game when facing a right-handed starter! Milwaukee, before yesterday, had totaled just 4 runs in the last 3 games against right-handed starters! That said, all signs point to an under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Friday. We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER
|
06-02-21 |
Mets v. Diamondbacks OVER 8 |
Top |
7-6 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 6 m |
Show
|
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 3:40 PM ET - The Diamondbacks Madison Bumgarner has a 9.90 ERA his last two starts. The Mets David Peterson is winless with a 5.55 ERA in his 5 road starts this season. The pitching match-up sets up well for plenty of runs here. New York O/U is 4-0 the last 4 games. Arizona O/U is 5-0 the last 5 games. The Mets have averaged 7 runs per game over the last 4 games. The Diamondbacks have averaged 5.4 runs per game over the last 5 games. Peterson faced the Diamondbacks four weeks ago and allowed 3 earned runs in less than 2 innings on the mound. In 2 of his last 3 starts Bumganer walked 4 in just 4 innings in each start. Overall, Bumgarner has been hit hard in each of the last two starts. The Mets bullpen has a 4.10 ERA on the road this season which ranks them in the middle of the rankings in the majors. In other words, nothing special, and the Diamondbacks bullpen has a 5.16 ERA at home this season which ranks their bullpen as one of the worst in the majors. In fact, the .281 BAA for Arizona's bullpen in home games is the worst in the majors. In terms of the lineups here, Arizona is hitting .266 at home this season which is #1 in the National League. The Mets, as noted above, have been heating up at the plate again and have reached 13 hits in 2 of last 3 games. Bet Over
|
05-31-21 |
Angels v. Giants OVER 8 |
Top |
1-6 |
Loss |
-104 |
5 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants, 4:05 PM ET - Total opened up at an 8.5 and has moved to an 8 which is likely due to the Angels recent under trending. That being said, based on this pitching match-up the value is very large here with the over 8 after the line move. The Giants Johnny Cueto has a 6.23 ERA with opponents hitting .382 against him in the month of May. This has encompassed his 4 starts since returning from injury and clearly Cueto is "not right" since coming back. Speaking of "not right", the Angels Dylan Bundy is winless in his 9 starts this season. Also, Bundy is 0-2 with a 15.84 ERA in his last 3 starts so his current form, just like Cueto's, is concerning to say the least. Some line value being offered here because it is the Angels recent under trend that pushed this total down some but their bats should have no trouble getting to a struggling Cueto. At the same time, Bundy is highly unlikely to shut down a red hot Giants lineup. San Francisco is 6-3-1 to the over and has scored an average of 6.8 runs per game in the last 10 games. The Angels, despite 4 straight unders, have scored 4 or more runs in 5 of the last 7 games. Getting this game to 4-4 would lead to at least a 5-4 final and a winning ticket for us. Given all of the above we expect both teams to reach that number in this one. We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over
|
05-28-21 |
Angels v. A's OVER 7.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-102 |
9 h 58 m |
Show
|
ASA top play on 10* OVER 7.5 Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland A's, 9:40 PM ET - Angels starter Shohei Ohtani will start here after yesterday's planned start for him was scratched by traffic trouble on the way to the stadium. His velocity was down in his most recent start and he was fortunate to only allow 2 earned runs. Ohtani gave up 5 hits and walked 2 and this was in under 5 innings of work. That start was at home and though his prior road outing was a good one, Ohtani gave up 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his road start previous to that one. He is known for having control troubles at times. A's starter Sean Manaea is also likely to give up plenty here to a potent Angels lineup. Manaea just faced Los Angeles and was successful but now they get to see him again in his very next start. This tends to be an edge for the hitters and he had allowed 10 earned runs on 20 hits in only 8 innings over his last two starts prior to that most recent start. Also, prior to a strong outing versus LA, he had allowed 8 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings combined in his two most recent starts versus the Angels. Even without Mike Trout (currently out with an injury), the Angels have plenty of big sticks in the lineup that can do damage against a struggling Manaea who had been very hittable of late. The over was 9-2 last 11 Angels games prior to yesterday's staying under in a rare shutout loss for Los Angeles. Today's game very likely to make up for that shortfall yesterday with an exciting game reaching double digits in runs scored per our computer math model. Oakland was on an 8-3 run to the over last 11 games before yesterday's under and the A's have consistently scored an average of 5 runs per game in recent weeks. We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over
|
05-26-21 |
Padres v. Brewers UNDER 8 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 47 m |
Show
|
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers, Monday at 7:40 PM ET – Chris Paddack is rounding back into form for the Padres and has a 1.38 ERA this month and averaging nearly a strikeout per inning in May. The first two games of this series snuck over the total. Monday's game was 5-0 going to the top of the 9th but miraculously went over the total when San Diego scored 3 in the top of the 9th. Yesterday's game also got over the total, just barely, but this was despite the teams combining for only 7 hits in the game! It was another strange result where a game went over the total that should not have. That has been the story in each of the first two games of this series and we see that coming to an end here. The Brewers have had one big game at the plate in their last 6 home games but, in the other 5 games as a host Milwaukee has scored an average of only 2 runs per game. After getting just 2 hits in yesterday's game, the Brewers will struggle again here versus a tough Padres starting pitcher. Speaking of tough pitchers, Eric Lauer is projected to come up strong here against his former team. Lauer is coming off a dominating start at the AAA level where he struck out 12 in 5 scoreless innings! This season he has a 2.87 ERA with the Brewers and wants to make the most of this outing against the team that he started his career with. San Diego has a .364 slugging percentage against lefties this season and that is one of the worst marks in the majors as the Padres rank 24th. This will be the Padres first time facing their former teammate. As for Paddack, he has a 1.80 ERA in his two starts against the Brewers in his career. That said, all signs point to an under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER
|
05-24-21 |
Padres v. Brewers UNDER 7 |
Top |
3-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 3 m |
Show
|
#905/906 ASA PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers, Monday at 7:40 PM ET – The Brewers have struggled against lefties this season and are hitting only .224 against southpaws. Milwaukee is just 2-6 against left-handed starters this season and has averaged only 2.5 runs per game in those 8 games. Facing Blake Snell is unlikely to help matters for Milwaukee. Since he pitched in the AL for the Rays for many seasons, Snell has an edge here in that the Brewers hitters have very little experience against him in their lineup. Snell has had great stuff all season again this year but had struggled with command earlier in the campaign. He seems to be turning the corner now and his dominating stuff has led to 18 strikeouts in 10 innings in his last two starts. Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff is winless in his last 4 starts but gets a league low run support from his teammates! So he has pitched very well but generally gets very little support from his teammates at the plate and, as you can see, that is likely to continue here as Snell could dominate. The good news for the Brewers is Woodruff has been incredible on the mound this season with a 1.58 ERA and opponents hitting just .145 against him in his 9 starts this season! The Padres have been hot at the plate but the under is a perfect 3-0 in Woodruff's 3 career starts against San Diego and he has allowed only 1 earned run in last 8 innings against them. That said, all signs point to another under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 4 to 5 runs and even if it reaches 6 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER
|
05-23-21 |
A's v. Angels OVER 8.5 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 10 m |
Show
|
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland A's, 4:07 PM ET - The Angels Dylan Bundy is 0-5 with a 6.02 ERA on the season. He also is dealing with a foot issue. Despite the foot problem, it was announced on Friday that Bundy was cleared for this start and that is good news for the Oakland lineup! Bundy has given up 13 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings over his last two starts. He is simply not in good form right now and the Athletics have scored an average of 5.3 runs last 8 games. Yesterday's game was a 6-2 win for Oakland which barely stayed under the total. That ended a perfect 6-0 run to the over in Athletics games but that high-scoring trend likely to quickly resume here. A's starter Sean Manaea is also likely to give up plenty here to a potent Angels lineup. Manaea has allowed 10 earned runs on 20 hits in only 8 innings over his last two starts. He also allowed 8 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings combined in his two most recent starts versus the Angels. Even without Mike Trout (currently out with an injury), the Angels have plenty of big sticks in the lineup that can do damage against a struggling Manaea who has been very hittable of late. The over was 6-1 last 7 Angels games prior to yesterday's barely staying under. Today's game very likely to make up for that shortfall yesterday with an exciting game reaching double digits in runs scored per our computer math model. We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over
|
05-22-21 |
Brewers v. Reds UNDER 9 |
Top |
4-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9 Runs – Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET – The Reds have trended over this season but yesterday's game went over the total in spite of just 15 hits total in the game. Cincinnati has not hit lefties well this season. The Reds are hitting just .214 versus southpaws and this ranks them in the bottom third of the majors. Though the Brewers Brett Anderson is off a tough start he should bounce back strong here. Anderson's last 3 starts against the Reds were last season and all resulted in unders and the lefty gave up only 3 earned runs total in 12 innings over his last two starts versus Cincinnati. The Reds start Sonny Gray here and he loves pitching at home. Since coming to Cincinnati, Gray is 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA in 25 home starts! Also, in Gray's last two starts versus the Brewers he has a 0.90 ERA with 12 strikeouts in 10 innings. The Reds have not faced a left-handed starter in a long-time and that could make this match-up especially tough for them. As for the Brewers bats, they have only had one big game at the plate last 10 games! In the other 9 games the Brewers have averaged scoring only 2.1 runs per game! That said, all signs point to another under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER
|
05-20-21 |
Nationals v. Cubs OVER 10 |
Top |
2-5 |
Loss |
-119 |
3 h 26 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on OVER 10 Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals, 2:20 PM ET - The wind is expected to be blowing out toward left field or left-center field at about a 15 mph clip on a mild afternoon at Wrigley Field. Day games tend to get crazy with weather like this in Chicago at this time of year and the situation, based on this pitching match-up, is ideal for a back and forth high-scoring affair in this one. The Nationals start Joe Ross. The Washington right-hander has a 5.80 ERA this season and if he finishes the season north of a 5.00 ERA it will be his 4th straight year doing so! Ross just got rocked for 8 earned runs in 4 innings in his most recent start and this followed a start in which he was in a lot of jams because of 5 walks in 5 innings. Ross skipped the 2020 season and only made 3 starts in 2018. So to see some full season results on him you have to look more at his 2019 and 2017 stats. Well, in 2019 day games he was hit at a .312 clip. In 2017 afternoon games he was hit at a .328 clip! A day game with hitter-friendly weather at Wrigley Field is highly unlikely to help Ross. As for his counterpart, Trevor Williams, plenty of struggles are also expected. The Cubs right-hander has not even totaled 9 innings in his last 3 starts combined and he has been rocked for 10 runs on 15 hits in those short outings! Just like last season, opponents are hitting about .300 against Williams and he has gone a combined 4-10 with a 6.22 ERA since the start of the 2020 season. In 2019 he had a 5.38 ERA. Williams has a 9.00 ERA in 5 day starts this season and had a 10.24 ERA in his 2 afternoon starts last season! Washington is hitting .260 in road games this season and that is #1 in the National League. The Cubs have hit 32 homers at home to rank 4th in the majors in that category. With the wind blowing out, Chicago is very likely to add a few to that total today! We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over
|
05-19-21 |
Mets v. Braves UNDER 8 |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-114 |
6 h 26 m |
Show
|
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET – The Braves Charlie Morton has struggled at times this season but this is the perfect match-up for him to get back on track. The Mets lineup has been severely depleted by injuries. New York managed a tight 4-3 win yesterday but neither team hit the ball well. In fact, the under is perfect so far in this series and the Mets are averaging only 3 runs last 5 games. David Peterson starts for the Mets here and is off a very strong outing. He will also take advantage of facing a Braves team that ranks #25 out of 30 MLB teams against left-handed pitching with a poor .215 batting average. Peterson has allowed only 3 earned runs on just 8 hits while striking out 17 over his last 12 and 1 / 3 innings in his past two road starts. With the Braves likely to struggle to score runs and the Mets missing a lot of firepower in their lineup due to major injury issues, runs will be hard to come by in this one. Each of Atlanta's last 4 games against a left-handed starter has resulted in an under. That said, all signs point to another under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER
|
05-18-21 |
Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 8 |
Top |
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 58 m |
Show
|
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – St Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates, Tuesday at 7:45 PM ET – The Cardinals John Gant has a 1.83 ERA this season. The Pirates JT Brubaker has a 2.58 ERA this season. Brubaker has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any of his 7 starts and actually has allowed 1 earned run or less in the majority of his starts this season! Gant has allowed a total of 2 earned runs over his last 4 starts! The O/U is 5-14-2 in Pittsburgh's road games this season! The Pirates have scored an average of only 2.5 runs per game in the last 14 games! The Cardinals enter this game on a 1-4 run and the losses have had a lot to do with struggling at the plate as St Louis has scored an average of only 2.6 runs in those 5 games. With both bullpens having performed fairly well this season and also coming in after an off day Monday, the relievers are rested and ready for this one as well. In terms of opponents batting average, the Cardinals bullpen ranks #1 in the National League with a .198 BAA and the Pirates pen ranks 10th in the majors with a .217 BAA this season! 5 of Brubaker's 7 starts this season, including all 4 on the road, have resulted in an under. 6 of Gant's 7 starts this season, including all 3 at home, have resulted in an under! That said, all signs point to another under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER
|
05-17-21 |
White Sox v. Twins OVER 9.5 |
Top |
16-4 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 3 m |
Show
|
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9.5 Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, 7:40 PM ET - These lineups just saw these pitchers Wednesday and they pounded them. We expect more of the same here. The White Sox saw Dallas Keuchel get rocked for 6 earned runs in less than 6 innings against the Twins. The Chicago southpaw has walked 4 while striking out just 2 over his last 2 starts. Yes a pitcher can pitch to contact and have success but not getting enough strikeouts can eventually catch up to you and this is particularly true when facing a team with power. The Twins certainly have some sluggers in their lineup and, even with Buxton currently out, these teams combined for 21 runs when Keuchel faced JA Happ last week. Happ, Twins southpaw, has been rocked in each of his last 3 starts against the White Sox with 19 earned runs allowed in 12 and 1 / 3 innings versus Chicago! The White Sox lead the majors in both batting average (.293) and slugging percentage (.480) against left-handed pitching this season! It will be very nice weather in Minneapolis for this one and the Twins have scored 11 runs on 19 hits the past two games as they wrapped up a home series against Oakland yesterday. Minnesota has a .434 slugging percentage versus lefties this season and that ranks 7th out of all 30 MLB teams. As for Keuchel, he historically pitches better at home than on the road. This season is still young and 2020 was a shortened season. Looking at his stats from 2015 to 2019 only one of the 5 seasons saw him pitch as well on the road as at home. In the other 4 seasons his ERA was a run higher in one season and 2 runs higher in the other 3 seasons. In none of the 5 seasons was he better on the road than at home. Keuchel likely to again struggle against the Twins here, especially since this one is at Target Field, but also look for the White Sox potent lineup to continue its dominance of left-hand pitching and pound Happ again! The White Sox have scored at least 8 runs in 4 of the last 6 road games. Chicago also has scored an average of 8.7 runs per game in going 3-0 against Minnesota this season. With the Twins now at home for the series rematch, we look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over
|
05-13-21 |
Rangers v. Astros UNDER 9 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 41 m |
Show
|
#969/970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9 Runs – Houston vs Texas, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET – The Astros start Cristan Javier here. Even though he is off what appears to be a very ugly start, he allowed only 4 hits in 5 innings but 2 of them were homers. Overall, Javier has held hitters to a .183 batting average in his career and his most recent start was the first time this season he had allowed an earned run at home. Javier had given up zero earned runs on 8 hits in 17 innings of work while striking out 22 batters. This home dominance is nothing new as, last season, in his rookie year he went 3-0 with a 2.17 ERA and held hitters to a .135 batting average and this was in 6 games (5 starts) at home. The Rangers Mike Foltneywicz will also be geared up for a strong start here as he faces the team that drafted him and he faces them in Houston too. He has an edge here as the Astros batters, all except one, have no experience against him. When Foltneywicz is on and facing opponents not use to his offerings he is a tough customer and we expect that to be the case again here. The under has cashed in 4 straight times in Rangers road games. The Astros have only averaged scoring 3.3 runs per game in Javier's last 3 starts as he has not received much run support. That said, all signs point to an under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER
|
05-10-21 |
Reds v. Pirates UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
14-1 |
Loss |
-101 |
6 h 23 m |
Show
|
#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati, Monday at 6:35 PM ET – The Reds have scored a total of only 6 runs in 4 games. Yesterday's game was rained out and, prior to Saturday's 9-2 loss going over the total, Cincinnati games were on a run of just 1 over in 5 games. The Reds have scored 3 or less runs in 6 of 8 games. The Pirates also have been struggling at the plate. Pittsburgh had a rare high-scoring win yesterday but this was after 6 straight unders. The Pirates scored only 8 runs total in those 6 games! The Reds start Tyler Mahle in this one. He has a 1.29 ERA on the road this season. Mahle has pitched 11 scoreless innings while allowing only 8 hits and striking out 10 in his last two starts at Pittsburgh. The Pirates start Mitch Keller. Though his numbers on the season do not impress, Keller is off an excellent start at San Diego and should enjoy success against the Reds. Keller has struck out 20 in 13 innings over his 3 starts against Cincinnati. The last time Keller hosted the Reds he gave up only 1 earned run in 6 innings while fanning 9! The Reds are hitting .201 on the road this season and that ranks Cincinnati dead last in the majors. Pittsburgh has a .346 slugging percentage overall which ranks the Pirates dead last in the majors. Runs will be hard to come by on a cool evening at PNC Park for this one. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER
|
05-06-21 |
Braves v. Nationals OVER 9 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-102 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals, 4:05 PM ET - We fell just short with this play yesterday but will come right back with it today. Even after a sub-par performance at the plate yesterday, the Nationals lead the NL with a .288 batting average against left-handed pitchers. Braves southpaw Drew Smyly gets the start here. Though he had a successful outing against the Nationals earlier this season, his current form is definitely trending the wrong way. Smyly has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts. Washington starter Jon Lester will be making just his 2nd start of the season. Though he had a solid 5-inning performance in his first start this season, Lester did record only 1 strikeout in his 5 innings. Atlanta enters this game having scored at least 5 runs in 4 of the last 5 road games. The Braves have a .264 batting average and .500 slugging percentage in night games this season. Both of those marks lead the NL! Considering that plus the Nationals being #1 in the National League for batting average against lefties and you can see why this one should be a high-scoring match-up. Though Washington's bullpen has been solid, too many innings may be expected of them here as Lester has averaged about 4 and 2 / 3 innings per start in his last 9 MLB starts. As for the Atlanta bullpen, the relievers have struggled this season on the road in particular and also the Braves pen has a 5.56 ERA last 5 games. We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over
|
05-05-21 |
Braves v. Nationals OVER 8.5 |
Top |
5-3 |
Loss |
-120 |
8 h 44 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on OVER 8.5 Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals, 7:05 PM ET - The Nationals lead the majors with a .305 batting average against left-handed pitchers. Braves southpaw Max Fried gets the start here as he returns from a hamstring injury. Fried is having a rough season thus far and that includes an ugly start at Washington 4 weeks ago. In that outing he was also opposed by the Nationals Erick Fedde and both pitchers got hit hard. We expect similar results here. Not only are the Nats pounding southpaws this season, the last two times Fried has pitched at Nationals Park he has allowed 5 earned runs in each start even though he lasted just 2 and 2 and 1 / 3 innings, respectively, in those two starts. Fedde has been pitching better since struggling against the Braves 4 weeks ago but Atlanta has been a nemesis of his. Fedde is winless in 4 career starts against the Braves and has a 12.85 ERA in those outings. The O/U is a perfect 4-0 in those outings. Indeed, when Fedde starts against Atlanta there has never been an under. We do not see that changing here. Fedde is off a quality start in his most recent outing but that was his first quality start (6 or more innings, 3 or less earned runs) of the season. The Braves have a .273 batting average and .514 slugging percentage in night games this season. Both of those marks lead the majors! Considering that plus the Nationals being #1 in the majors for batting average against lefties and you can see why this one should be another high-scoring match-up just like the first one between these starting pitchers this season. Though Washington's bullpen has been solid, too many innings may be expected of them here as Fedde prone to early exits when facing the Braves. As for the Atlanta bullpen, the relievers have struggled this season on the road in particular and also the Braves pen has a 6.80 ERA last 5 games. We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over
|
05-03-21 |
Rangers v. Twins OVER 8.5 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 12 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on OVER 8.5 Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins, 7:40 PM ET - The Twins last 5 games have all totaled double digits in runs. The O/U, as you would expect given that information, is a perfect 5-0 in this stretch. Those 5 games averaged 12.8 runs per game and all signs point to another high-scoring game here. Texas has scored an average of 5.2 runs per game on the road this season. The Twins have scored an average of 8.8 runs per game overall last 4 games. Rangers starter Dane Dunning has a 10.57 ERA in his last two starts. Minnesota starter Kenta Maeda has a 9.69 ERA in his last 3 starts and has been hit hard. 23 hits (including 6 homers) against Maeda in 13 innings in his last 3 starts combined. In 13 road games this season for Texas, only 4 have resulted in an under. The Rangers bullpen has a 6.80 ERA on the road this season and Dunning is averaging slightly less than 5 innings per start. The road struggles of the Texas bullpen could be on display early in this one as you can see based on that. With the Twins Maeda also in very poor current form, we look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over
|
05-01-21 |
Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
5-6 |
Loss |
-120 |
7 h 5 m |
Show
|
#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Milwaukee vs LA Dodgers, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET – The O/U is 4-10 in Dodgers road games this season. The O/U is 8-15 in Brewers games against right-handed starters this season. Facing LA's Dustin May is unlikely to alter the trending of that latter stat for Milwaukee. The Dodgers right-hander has a 2.53 ERA this season and struck out 10 against the Padres in his last start. Speaking of impressive pitching, the Brewers Brandon Woodruff has a 1.55 ERA this season and has also been piling up strikeouts. The Dodgers struggles at the plate are very likely to continue against Woodruff. Los Angeles has been held to an average of 1.7 runs per game last 6 road games! The O/U is 0-6 in those games! The Brewers have had 5 games so far on this homestand and have been held to an average of 2.4 runs per game! On the season Milwaukee has a .289 on base percentage at home - that is the worst mark in the National League. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 4 to 5 runs and even if it reaches 6 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER
|
04-30-21 |
Braves v. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5 |
Top |
5-13 |
Loss |
-108 |
7 h 32 m |
Show
|
#929/930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 10.5 Runs – Toronto vs Atlanta, Friday at 7:35 PM ET – This O/U opened up at 9.5 and went to 10.5 and there are key reasons why this is offering huge value to the under. First off this is a battle of southpaws. The Braves are hitting an unreal .136 versus left-handed pitching! As you would expect with that horrible number, Atlanta ranks dead last in the majors in that category this season. The Blue Jays are also struggling versus lefties as Toronto has a slugging percentage of .358 versus southpaws to rank 25th out of 30 teams in MLB. Starting tonight is Drew Smyly for the Braves. He just returned from injury and had a horrible first inning but then settled in and allowed only one more run the rest of the way. Smyly will draw some momentum from the way that start wrapped up and the Blue Jays have very few hitters with experience against him which is another definite advantage. The Braves bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack this season so they are not horrible and the Blue Jays bullpen is actually at the top of the majors with a 2.30 ERA on the season. That Toronto pen will be supporting a Jays starter, Robbie Ray, who saw his fastball nearing triple digits in his most recent start. Ray fanned 9 in that outing and has a 2.81 ERA this season and should be in top form against an Atlanta lineup that has struggled so badly with lefties this season. The Braves have had two big games at the plate (both against the Cubs) in last 9 games but the other 7 games saw Atlanta average only 2.6 runs per game. The Blue Jays have scored an average of just 3.3 runs last 9 games. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 8 runs and even if it reaches 9 (or even 10 based on the current posted total of 10.5) that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER
|
04-27-21 |
Angels v. Rangers OVER 9 |
Top |
1-6 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 26 m |
Show
|
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers, 8:05 PM ET - These lineups just faced these pitchers last week and both actually had a little success but the game still went over the total thanks to faulty bullpens. By the way, these are two of the worst bullpens in the majors thus far on the season. The Rangers bullpen has a 5.54 ERA overall and the Angels bullpen has a 5.77 ERA in road games this season. The key to the value here is both starting pitchers were fortunate they did not allow more runs in their meeting last week. LA's Jose Quintana gave up quite a few hard hit balls for outs. The Rangers Mike Foltneywicz allowed 3 homers but all were solo bombs. Foltneywicz has given up an average of 2 homers per start in his 4 appearances this season. The Angels Ohtani left yesterday's game with a blister injury but that impacted his pitching more than hitting and he should be back in the lineup today. Also, Los Angeles has been given a boost with the return of Rendon to the lineup. He did not hit well yesterday but is hitting .323 in 31 career at-bats versus Foltneywicz. The Rangers right-hander had a rough spring training and has continued to labor in his regular season starts. The Angels Quintana has a 9.00 ERA this season and has walked 11 in 10 innings. The over 7-2 in Angels last 9 games. The over 4-1 in Rangers last 5 games. The Angels have scored at least 4 runs in 7 of 9 games and Texas has scored at least 4 runs in 4 of 5 games. This total sitting at an even 9 runs so plenty of value with getting at least to a 5-4 final quite likely in this one. We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over
|
04-25-21 |
A's v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
1-8 |
Loss |
-120 |
2 h 59 m |
Show
|
#965/966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Baltimore vs Oakland, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET – Wind blowing in from left or at least left to right and is unlikely to help the hitters. A lot of right-handed bats at the plate for this one and will be trying to pull directly into the wind against a pair of solid left-handed starters. John Means has been pitching extremely well to begin this season. He has 4 starts under his belt and is the ace of the staff with a 1.52 ERA. Also, the Orioles bullpen which supports him has #6 ranked ERA in the majors with a 3.19 ERA on the season thus far. As for Oakland, they certainly are not having pitching issues either. That is why this team has won 13 games in a row! There was one crazy 13-12 extra innings win in the stretch but in the other dozen games the A's have allowed only 2 runs per game on average! The Orioles have a .377 slugging percentage against lefties to rank in the bottom third of the majors thus far this season. As hot as Oakland has been they are hitting only .221 in day games this season and Means has been fantastic on the mound this year. The Athletics have Jesus Luzardo on the mound. He has pitched quite well in 3 of his 4 starts and his most recent was his best one yet. Piling up strikeouts and he also limited hits in his most recent start plus the Orioles have no familiarity with him. That should be an edge to the young southpaw and the Orioles struggles against lefties continue. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER
|
04-24-21 |
Angels v. Astros OVER 9 |
Top |
2-16 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 6 m |
Show
|
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros, 4:10 PM ET - Both of these starting pitchers had a rough spring training. Both starters have seen those tough times carry right into the regular season as well. We are aware of the Mike Trout injury situation for the Angels but, even without him in the lineup yesterday, LA pounded out 13 hits in the extra innings loss. Also, his likely replacement is Scott Schebler. He is 3 for 6 with two homers in his career against Jake Odorizzi! The Astros Odorizzi had a 15.75 ERA in spring training and has a 10.57 ERA so far in the regular season this year. The Angels start Griffin Canning. The Los Angeles right-hander had a 6.75 ERA in spring training and has a 5.68 ERA so far in the regular season this year. Canning has a 6.35 ERA in his 3 career starts against the Astros with a 1.94 WHIP. That means he allowed about 2 baserunners per inning which of course leads to trouble quickly. Both these bullpens rank in the bottom half of the rankings for relievers ERA this season too. The Angels are hitting .267 in road games this season which is the 2nd best mark in MLB! The over is 4-0 in Astros L4 home games. The over is 5-1 in Angels L6 games overall. We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over
|
04-22-21 |
Yankees v. Indians UNDER 8 |
Top |
6-3 |
Loss |
-112 |
5 h 24 m |
Show
|
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Cleveland vs New York Yankees, Thursday at 6:10 PM ET – It will be a chilly evening in Cleveland and certainly NOT a hitter-friendly night. The Yankees and Indians are hitting .205 and .209, respectively, so far this season. Those are the two worst batting averages in the American League. Yankees and Indians relievers, however, rank each team as two of the best in the majors with the Yankees bullpen #1 with a 2.28 ERA and the Indians bullpen #6 in the majors with a 3.00 ERA. As for the starting pitchers in this one Aaron Civale is 3-0 with a 2.18 ERA for Cleveland this season. For New York, Domingo German just returned from the Yankees training site because he had some early season struggles. But his arm appears fine and he had great numbers in spring training. This is still the same hard thrower that went 18-4 and held hitters to a .228 batting average in the last full season two years ago in 2019. The Indians have played 16 games this season and the Yankees have played 17 games and the teams have each gone over the total in only 6 of their respective games. The Yanks have scored an average of just 2.6 runs their past 8 games. The Indians have scored an average of only 3.3 runs per game their past 9 games. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER.
|
04-19-21 |
Rays v. Royals UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 6 m |
Show
|
#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Kansas City vs Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:10 PM ET – Josh Fleming gets the start for the Rays and he was born in Missouri. This road trip to Kansas City is a special one for him and he will have a lot of supporters in the stands for this one. The Tampa Bay southpaw, now in his 2nd season in the majors, is 5-1 with a 2.65 ERA in 8 career appearances, 6 of which were starts. He faces a Royals team that has decent overall season numbers at the plate but that is because those stats are skewed by their first two games this season when they scored 25 runs. Since then, KC has averaged scoring only 3 runs per game its past 12 games. The Royals, not including extra innings, have been held to 3 or less runs in 10 of those 12 games! Unsurprisingly, given those numbers, Kansas City is on an under run that has seen the under cash in 9 of 11 games! The Rays, on the other hand, have been trending over the total but this is atypical of Tampa Bay baseball and there should be a regression to the mean. The way the Royals Danny Duffy is throwing, that regression should include this game staying under the total. Duffy is 2-0 with an 0.75 ERA and has fanned 11 in 12 innings this season. Though the Rays have trended over this season, yesterday's game did stay under the total and was the 7th time in 9 games in which Tampa Bay was held to 4 or less runs. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER.
|
04-18-21 |
Astros v. Mariners OVER 9 |
Top |
2-7 |
Push |
0 |
6 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA top play on 10* OVER: Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners, 4:10 PM ET - Entering Saturday's match-up between these teams, each of the Mariners last 3 home games were overs and the Astros were on an overall 3-0 run to the over. Houston, entering Saturday's game, had allowed 6 or more runs in 6 straight games! Seattle, entering the Saturday match-up, had allowed 6.3 runs per game in home games this season. The point is, regardless of the outcome of Saturday night's game, both teams are trending the way we would like to see for an over. What makes this one absolutely a must play for us is the pitching match-up as both of these starters have been struggling. Jake Odorizzi struggled in spring training and then got hammered in his only regular season start thus far as the Tigers hit him hard including 3 homers in just 3 and 1 / 3 innings. Odorizzi had a 6.59 ERA in limited action, 4 starts, last season and just does not seem to have his confidence on the mound like we saw in 2019 and prior seasons. He is not the same pitcher he was. Speaking of struggling, Nick Margevicius gets the start for the Mariners here. The Seattle southpaw is 4-10 with a 5.94 ERA at the MLB level and is already struggling (7.04 ERA) this season in his 3 games (1 start). Houston has been a top 5 hitting team this season for batting average and will get to Margevicius early and often. The Mariners have been a top 5 hitting team in day games for batting average this season and, again, Odorizzi continues to be very hittable as we noted above. This one has the makings of plenty of runs early and the bullpens have been decent early this season but were not projected to be a strength for either one of these teams coming into the season. There will be a regression to the mean in that regard. Look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over
|
04-16-21 |
Tigers v. A's OVER 8.5 |
Top |
0-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 45 m |
Show
|
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Detroit Tigers @ Oakland A's, 9:40 PM ET - The Tigers are scoring better than most expected early this season. Yesterday's game was an 8-4 loss for Detroit at Oakland but it was the 3rd straight over in Tigers games. Detroit has scored an average of 6 runs a game in its last 4 games. The Tigers have a .416 slugging percentage on the season which ranks 6th in the majors. Though the A's have poor overall numbers offensively this season, they are absolutely trending the right direction. The over is 4-0 in Oakland's last 4 games and the Athletics are truly in the zone right now as they have won 5 straight games thanks in large part to a scoring average of 7.4 runs during the streak. Each of these teams have bullpens that rank near the bottom of the majors for relievers ERA early this season and that is an issue here too because each of the starters have an ERA above 8.00 early this season. Frankie Montas struggled badly in his only home start this season and Jose Urena has had issues in both his starts this season. Each of the last two years Urena has finished the season with an ERA above 5.00 so this might be his last start in the rotation for now if things don't turn around. Spencer Turnbull is likely back soon and Urena would be the odd man out. While he is still out there we are going to take advantage of his turn in the rotation and look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over
|
04-15-21 |
Indians v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
#965/966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET – The Indians were no-hit by the White Sox yesterday which means the Chicago bullpen has fresh arms for this one. That is good news for the White Sox and also there are no issues with a Cleveland bullpen that has been solid early this season with a 2.76 ERA. Neither bullpen may be needed much in this one anyway! Chicago's Lance Lynn allowed 3 earned runs or less in 11 of his 13 starts last season and he enters this start off a complete game shutout of the Royals in which he fanned 11 batters! Lynn should have no trouble with an Indians team that is again one of the worst hitting teams in the majors early this season. What is a surprise is that the slugging White Sox are also struggling with power and their slugging percentage is in the bottom third of the majors so far. Facing Aaron Civale will not help as he has been spectacular early this season with a 2-0 record, 2.45 ERA and holding hitters to a .111 batting average. Adding to the value here is that it is a chilly mid-April afternoon in Chicago and certainly it is not yet hitting weather here in the Midwest! The result, based on all of the above is a well-pitched affair in this one in which the hurlers dominate. We expect this one to get to no more than 5 or 6 runs at best. The White Sox had 4 straight unders before yesterday's under and the Indians had seen 8 of their 10 games stay under the total before yesterday's game went over the total despite them being no-hit. Take the UNDER.
|
04-12-21 |
Marlins v. Braves UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
5-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
#905/906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Atlanta vs Miami, Monday at 7:20 PM ET – The Braves are off a tough loss last night to the Phillies. It was a very entertaining game for the fans but likely a draining one for the teams and especially for an Atlanta team that felt they lost the game on a questionable safe call at the plate in the 9th inning. Now the Phillies leave town and the Braves welcome the Marlins to Atlanta. Could the Braves be a little flat at the plate after last night's game? Absolutely but, not only that, they would have their hands full in a normal situation too when it comes to having to face Sandy Alcantara. The Marlins staff ace has allowed just 6 hits while striking out 17 in 12 innings pitched his first two starts. Alcantara will be seeking revenge for a post-season loss in Atlanta in October. Looking at the two most recent regular season starts for Alcantara against the Braves he has allowed only 4 hits in 14 and 2 / 3 innings. The Braves are hitting only .214 this season and Alcantara will be very careful with red-hot Acuna and power-hitting Freeman. The latter of those two is hitting only .167 and really, other than Acuna, the Braves hitters are struggling. Travis d'Arnaud the lone other hitter that is even off to a respectable start at .267 thus far. As for the Marlins, their team is also struggling at the plate as they are hitting only .215 and they have a paltry .315 slugging percentage. The Braves bullpen has been one of the best in the league thus far with a 2.08 ERA and they will be supporting a starter, Huascar Ynoa, who had a fantastic first start this season. Ynoa went 5 scoreless innings and struck out 5 while allowing only 2 hits. The Marlins have scored 24 runs in their 8 games this season but 12 runs came in 1 game. In other 7 games the Marlins have averaged scoring only 1.7 runs per game. Look for Miami's struggles at the plate continue here but we also expect Alcantara, who absolutely appears to be on top of his game right now, to be super sharp and shut down the Braves in this one. The result is a well-pitched affair in this one in which the hurlers dominate. We expect this one to get to no more than 6 or 7 runs at best. Take the UNDER.
|
04-11-21 |
Reds v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 |
Top |
0-7 |
Loss |
-120 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
ASA top play 10* on OVER: Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 4:10 PM ET - The over is now 7-1 in Reds games this season. Cincinnati leads the majors with a .312 batting average and .567 slugging percentage. The Reds lost 8 to 3 here yesterday but that was the first time this season they did not score at least 5 runs in a game. Cincinnati did have 12 hits in yesterday's loss and today they'll get their big runs again. They face Luke Weaver and he allowed 3 homers in his first start this season. One could chalk that up to pitching at Coors Field but in this case it truly is really not just that. Weaver has regressed as this is a guy who went 1-9 with a 6.58 ERA last season and now he faces the #1 hitting team in the league thus far this season. The Diamondbacks do not have the impressive hitting stats that the Reds do this season but keep in mind, Arizona is known for hitting better at home in comparison with the road. Their two series this year were on the road and now since coming back home they have scored 13 runs in two games and pounded out 10 hits yesterday. The Diamondbacks will face Cincinnati's Jose De Leon. Though he did have a very strong first start to open the season he faced a Pirates team that most expect to be the worst team in the league this season and he was at home. De Leon has a 7.79 ERA in his MLB career and the last time he was a starter was 2016 and he compiled a 6.35 ERA in his 4 starts. Both starting pitchers are likely to get rocked here and the Reds bullpen has a 5.29 ERA so far this season. The Diamondbacks pen has been better but they now face the hottest hitting team in baseball a 3rd straight day. Look for plenty of scoring throughout this one as the over moves to 8-1 in Reds games on the season! Bet Over
|
04-09-21 |
Rockies v. Giants OVER 8 |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-114 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants, 4:35 PM ET - The weather will be cool at Oracle Park in San Francisco by the bay but the wind is expected to be blowing out to center field at least 20 mph in this one. Certainly this could help lift a few balls out of the yard if the pitchers make some mistakes and certainly we could see that in this one. As for the starters here, Austin Gomber had a very rough season opener and he has made only 5 starts at the MLB level since the end of the 2018 season. The Rockies southpaw is still a bit unproven as a starter and faces a big challenge here with a road start against a team making its home opener. Gomber walked 7 in just 3 and 1 / 3 innings in his season opening start. The Giants have not been hitting the ball well for average early this season but do have 11 homers in 6 games and Gomber is having trouble with his location and now wanting to avoid walking too many. That said, you know what happens with mistake pitches over the plate and San Francisco will make him pay. The Giants start Johnny Cueto here. The veteran right-hander had a rough spring with a 9.82 ERA in his 3 starts. This seemed to carry into his shaky season opener as well as he was not overly impressive against the Mariners. A number of Rockies hitters have had good success against Cueto and you might think that is only due to seeing him at Coors Field. But he just faced Colorado here at Oracle Park last September and got rocked for 7 earned runs in 4 and 1 / 3 innings. The total set on this game by oddsmakers has been bouncing around but after opening at 8.5 went as high as a 9 and then settled in at a 8. We love the value here after the line move in particular and will not hesitate to get involved here. Look for both teams to hit the ball well on Friday in the series opener of this 3-game set. Bet Over
|
04-08-21 |
Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 31 m |
Show
|
#907/908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – St Louis vs Milwaukee, Thursday at 4:15 PM ET – The Cardinals and Brewers have both struggled at the plate early this season. St Louis is off a 7-0 win but had averaged scoring just 3 runs per game in 3 games prior to yesterday's big victory at Miami. The Cards are hitting only .206 on the season and the Brewers have been even worse as they are hitting only .171 on the season. Milwaukee has scored an average of only 2.6 runs per game their last 5 games. Each team has been getting solid pitching recently as well. Adam Wainwright gets the start for the Cardinals in their home opener today. Though he got roughed up in the season opener he looked excellent in spring training and is a 39 year old veteran who knows how to adjust after a rare tough outing. Wainwright not only dominated in spring training, he is known for being great in day game action. Wainwright went 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and .134 BAA in day games last season. The year before that it was 6-1, 1.61, and .210 for more excellence under the sun in 2019. Wainwright also is known for pitching great at home where he has gone a combined 11-6 the past two seasons with an ERA under the 3.00 mark. As a result, the Brewers run-scoring woes should continue here and the Cardinals bullpen is fresh and has fared well in recent games. The Cardinals bats are also likely to be stifled here as the Brewers have been getting great pitching and this includes from Corbin Burnes. The righty was a hard-luck loser in his first start as he struck out 11 in 6 and 1 / 3 innings and allowed just 1 hit in the outing. That is a tough loss for sure but the Brewers could give him no run support and that is likely to again be an issue here. Look for another strong start from him as Burnes went 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA and a .174 BAA last season as he returned to the form of his rookie season of 2018 when he went 7-0 with a 2.61 ERA and a .199 BAA. Burnes was fantastic this spring too and carried that right into his dominating first start this season as well. We expect this one to get to no more than 5 or 6 runs at best. Take the UNDER.
|
04-06-21 |
Braves v. Nationals UNDER 8 |
Top |
5-6 |
Loss |
-125 |
5 h 15 m |
Show
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#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Under 8 Runs – Washington vs Atlanta, Tuesday at 4 PM ET – The Braves are starting Drew Smyly in this one and he wrapped up last season striking out 38 over his final 22 innings. When he is "on" he is a crafty lefty and he should hold a couple key edges here. One is that he has spent most of his career in the American League so the Nationals have very little experience against him. Another reason the Washington hitters will be at a disadvantage in this one is that the covid protocols delayed their season up to this point. So no game action since spring training ended over a week ago. Essentially the Nats were handed an unwanted week off right at the beginning of the new season. The pitchers are set to dominate in this one because Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Nationals. He piled up 20 strikeouts and held batters to a .180 batting average in his spring training starts as he compiled 13.2 innings. Scherzer has allowed 2 earned runs or less in his first start of a year in 6 of the last 7 seasons. In fact, in those 6 starts he has allowed a total of only 6 earned runs or an average of 1 per game. Considering one of the Braves strengths this season is the bullpen and the fact that the Nationals have solid late-inning arms in the bullpen and Scherzer can work deep into this game, there is likely to be very little scoring in this one. The Nats bats haven't seen game action in over a week and the Braves bats were stifled in their season opening series. Atlanta was held to just 3 runs total in their 3-game season opening series at Philly. The average score of the 3 games was Phillies 3, Braves 1 and we expect this one to get to no more than 5 or 6 runs at best. Take the UNDER.
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04-04-21 |
Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11.5 |
Top |
4-2 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
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ASA top play on 10* OVER 11.5 Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies, 3:10 PM ET - These teams have combined for 41 runs on 69 hits so far in this series. That is an average of nearly 14 runs per game on 23 hits per game. On a warm afternoon in Denver with high temperatures expected near 80 degrees we expect the bats to stay hot in this one. Neither team has been held below 5 runs in any of the 3 games thus far in the series. If that situation remains the same, the worst we can do here is a 6-5 final which was indeed the final score of yesterday's game which stayed just under the total of 11.5 runs. However, we absolutely expect much more than that here as both bullpens have already had plenty of work in this series with all the runs being scored thus far in this series and this now being a 4th game in a 4 day situation for each bullpen to contend with. As for the starters here, Austin Gomber faces the defending World Series Champs and he has made only 4 starts at the MLB level since the end of the 2018 season. The Rockies southpaw is still a bit unproven as a starter and faces a big challenge here with a day game start on a warm afternoon at Coors Field against one of the toughest lineups in baseball. The Dodgers start Julio Urias here and he had a 5.40 ERA vs the Rockies last season, a 4.82 ERA in Coors Fields outings in 2019, and prior to that made a start here in 2017 and allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings. In his lone appearance at Coors Field the year before, his rookie season of 2016, Urias allowed 3 earned runs in 3 innings. The fact is that, like most pitchers, Urias stuff just doesn't have the same action in the thin air of Coors Field that it has in other venues. Look for both teams to continue to hit the ball well on Sunday in the series finale of this 4-game set. Bet Over
|
10-16-20 |
Dodgers v. Braves OVER 9.5 |
Top |
7-3 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 33 m |
Show
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NOTE: We are comfortable with this play regardless of the starting pitchers announced.ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves versus Los Angeles Dodgers, Friday at 9:08 PM ET
The last 3 games between these teams have all flown over the total and have averaged 15 runs. Our computer math model is forecasting another game that features double digits in runs scored. This is regardless of the pitching match-up. Keep in mind a ton of runs have been scored against the relievers, not the starters, in recent games. That said we like the over here despite the fact that the Braves starting pitcher has not yet been announced at the time of this write-up while the Dodgers are expected to go with Dustin May. Note that May has made 3 post-season appearances this year, including 1 against the Braves, but has pitched only 8 innings in his 5 post-season appearances the past two seasons combined. That includes 1 start. May is unlikely to pitch deep into this game and he is facing a Braves team that has averaged scoring 7.7 runs per game in its 3 wins in this series. By the way the Dodgers had scored 22 runs in Game 2 and 3 combined and will bounce back here at the plate after a poor effort (2 runs) in Game 4. Our computer math modeling shows high probability for this one getting to a dozen runs scored as each bullpen has shown some susceptibility in recent games and these are two very potent lineups. Bet the OVER in the Braves game in late night action Friday.
|
10-07-20 |
A's v. Astros OVER 9 |
Top |
9-7 |
Win
|
105 |
9 h 23 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Houston Astros versus Oakland A's, Wednesday at 3:35 PM ET
Yesterday's game was 5-2 through the half-way point of the game but then stalled out with no more runs scored. Considering Wednesday's pitching match-up, we like the odds that this one pushes to a higher double-digit total in runs like what we saw in Game 1 of this series. That game totaled 15 runs and was over the total by the top of the 6th inning. Consider that in this match-up there is a ton of pressure on a young starting pitcher for the A's. It is Jesus Luzardo making the start and the rookie southpaw struggled in his outing against the White Sox in the divisional series. If he thought that was pressure-packed, how about now facing an Astros team that is loaded with post-season experience? Per our computer math models, this one does not end well for Luzardo. The good news for Oakland however is that Astros pitcher Jose Urquidy is also projected to struggle here. He has had some success in the post-season in limited action but Urquidy faces an A's team that had scored at least 5 runs in 3 straight games prior to yesterday's 5-2 loss. Also, the last 4 times the Athletics have entered a game off 2 or more consecutive losses, they have gone 4-0 and scored an average of 7.3 runs per game. Oakland's lineup responds here but their own pitching struggles and that sends this one into double digits in runs scored. Bet the OVER in the Astros game in afternoon action Wednesday.
|
10-05-20 |
Astros v. A's UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
10-5 |
Loss |
-107 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Oakland Athletics versus Houston Astros, Monday at 4:07 PM ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA
Not only did A's starter Chris Bassitt go 3-0 with an 0.34 ERA in his four September starts, he also dominated the Astros the two times he faced them on the West Coast. Although this game is not in Oakland like those two outings were - it is a neutral site series in LA at Dodgers Stadium - the location still favors the Athletics. Also, the Astros offense had a down season and finished 20th in the majors for team batting average while the A's were even worse and finished 25th in the majors. Runs will be at a premium in this one as Oakland faces Lance McCullers in Game One. The Houston right-hander struck out 24 in 17 and 2 / 3 innings over his final 3 starts of the regular season and did not allow an earned run in any of those 3 outings. Also, in his lone outing against Oakland this season, McCullers held the Athletics to just 1 earned run in 6 innings. More of the same on tap here this afternoon per our computer math model. Bet the UNDER in the A's game in afternoon action Monday.
|
09-29-20 |
Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 7.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-107 |
6 h 28 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays, Tuesday at 5 PM ET
There is a unique element in this series that is not present in any of the other series involving the 16 teams that have made the post-season. With the unique scheduling element this season the only opponents that teams faced in their own league were in their own division. Out of all 8 playoff series to begin the post-season this is the only one that pits divisional foes. We feel that will lead to more offense in this one because these teams played 60 games this season and 10 were against each other. They know the other teams bullpens and, in the case of Game 1, we like the odds of both starters getting a little roughed up too! The Blue Jays are starting Matt Shoemaker and he made only 6 starts this season and half of those were against the Rays! In his last two starts against Tampa Bay, Shoemaker allowed 5 earned runs in 9 innings and the damage could have been even worse as the Rays hit 3 homers against him in those 9 innings! Tampa Bay starter Blake Snell is a great pitcher but there is reason to believe he could struggle a bit here against this Blue Jays team loaded with dangerous hitters. Toronto will be facing Snell for the 3rd time in 2 months and getting extra looks at a hurler tends to favor the hitters. Additionally, Snell struggled in 2 of his 4 September starts. Also, in his last 3 starts at home, the Rays southpaw gave up 7 runs (6 earned) on 15 hits (including a pair of homers) and walked 6 in 16 innings. Those aren't horrible numbers but they aren't great either. With a low total of 7.5 runs here, our computer math model indicates strong value on the over as the projection is closer to the 9 to 10 run range in this one (average of 9.5 projected here per the modeling). We'll go with the over here and like the unique situation in this match-up favoring the hitters in comparison with the other series. Bet the OVER in the Rays game in early evening action Tuesday.
|
09-27-20 |
Marlins v. Yankees OVER 9.5 |
Top |
5-0 |
Loss |
-107 |
4 h 20 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Miami Marlins @ New York Yankees, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET
Final day of the regular season and one always has to exercise caution in situations like this in terms of lineups. In this case, there is reason to believe that both lineups will be solid. The Marlins rested some regulars yesterday and, after that 11-4 loss, would like to win today to have positive momentum heading into the playoffs plus to finish the regular season with a winning record. As for the Yankees, they should also be playing all their regulars today as they are still hoping to secure the #5 seed in the post-season. The Yankees rolled to an 11-4 win yesterday and all 11 runs came against the Marlins bullpen. That is bad news for Miami's pitching staff today because Jose Urena (0-3, 6.00 ERA) is only expected to go 2 to 3 innings in this one so the Marlins pen will be exposed again. The Yankees have been knocking the cover off the ball in home games in recent weeks and that continues here. New York will need to score a lot too because Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt is a rookie with a 7.71 ERA at the MLB level. He has already had command issues in his limited MLB action as he has walked 3 and hit a batter for 4 "free passes" in just 2 and 1 / 3 innings. This is a tough spot for Schmidt and the Marlins will take advantage. At the same time, in terms of bullpen usage, you know the Yankees would be wise to save their best arms for the upcoming playoff action. As a result, this one should soar over the total and our computer math model analytics are pointing strongly in that direction for this match-up. Bet the OVER in the Yankees game in afternoon action Sunday.
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09-26-20 |
Cubs v. White Sox OVER 9 |
Top |
5-9 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 32 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET
The wind will be blowing out toward left field quite strongly for this one. That is bad news for Cubs southpaw Jon Lester. Though he has good numbers recently he has been quite fortunate in those starts and he now faces a White Sox team that has a .527 slugging percentage versus left-handed hurlers this season. That is good for the #1 spot in the majors and our computer math modeling projects a huge game at the plate for the White Sox in this one. The Cubs should also enjoy a big game at the plate too as they face Dane Dunning. The White Sox right-hander is a rookie and still enduring some growing pains as a 25-year old hurler at the MLB level. Dunning allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings in his most recent start which was against the Indians. Now Dunning faces a Cubs team that has hit 58 homers against right-handed pitching this season. That ranks them 5th in the National League and Dunning has allowed homers in each of his last two starts. The Cubs exploded for 10 runs in yesterday's win and have scored an average of 9 runs per game in their last 3 road wins. Look for the White Sox bats to bounce back big however after being shut out yesterday. The White Sox had won 15 of their last 17 home games prior to yesterday's ugly home loss. In those 17 games, the White Sox scored an average of 6.2 runs per game! Bet the OVER in the White Sox game in early evening action Saturday.
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09-25-20 |
Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 |
Top |
5-10 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 20 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays, Friday at 6:37 PM ET
The Blue Jays clinched a playoff spot with a win last night but they can still improve their playoff positioning so we expect their normal lineup tonight against an Orioles team that has been relegated to playing the role of spoiler. However, when you don't have playoff pressure on you it oftentimes brings out the best in a lineup and Baltimore erupted for 13 runs in their win at Boston last night. The Blue Jays have been playing their home games in Buffalo this season and Sahlen Field has played out as a very hitter friendly ballpark. It will be another mild evening in upstate NY tonight and the bats should rule in this one after a rare low-scoring game here last night (4-1) when the Jays hosted the Yankees. This total opened up at a 10 and has moved down to a 9.5 which has led to even more line value with the over in this one. We are not really concerned with whom the starting pitchers are in this match-up as we do expect to see plenty of bullpen from each team in this one. But the Orioles slated starter is Jorge Lopez and he is facing a surging Blue Jays team that enters this game having won 4 of 5 games and scoring an average of 7.2 runs per game in those contests. Lopez has an 8.18 ERA in his 4 road appearances this season. The Blue Jays are starting Taijuan Walker and he is off a strong start but it came against a quickly fading Phillies team. Prior to that outing Walker was hit hard in his prior start and he had major issues with command of his pitches in the start that preceded that one. He has a low ERA but has not pitched as well at that ERA would indicate. Just recently Walker got rocked by the Yankees but was only charged with 1 earned run. The Orioles faced him about 4 weeks ago and the 2nd look likely improves the results especially after last night's blowout win at Fenway Park. This one has the makings of a slugfest at Sahlen Field in Buffalo, NY. Bet the OVER in the Blue Jays game in early evening action Friday.
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09-24-20 |
Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 |
Top |
1-4 |
Loss |
-102 |
7 h 12 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays, Thursday at 6:37 PM ET
The Blue Jays can clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight. The Yankees are still battling for possible home field edge in their first round playoff series so they are motivated too. After getting blasted last night by a score of 14-1, look for the Yankees to respond here. They made 4 errors in last night's game plus loaded the bases with nobody out in the top of the 5th but failed to score! That was when the game was still 5-1 and well within reach. The Blue Jays have been playing their home games in Buffalo this season and Sahlen Field has played out as a very hitter friendly ballpark. It will be another mild evening in upstate NY tonight and the bats should again rule in this one. This total opened up at a 10 and has moved down to a 9.5 which has led to even more line value with the over in this one. 8 of the Yankees last 9 games have totaled 11 or more runs. In fact, those 9 games have averaged a total of 14.8 runs per game and we would not be surprised to see this one get into the range of 15 runs as well. The last time the Yankees Jordan Montgomery faced the Blue Jays he also was opposed by Toronto's Hyun Jin Ryu. That game ended up a 12-7 Jays win. Ryu got rocked in that one and he is 0-2 with an 8.80 ERA in his 3 career starts against the Yankees. Montgomery also got rocked in that game and he has a 6.00 ERA in his 8 night starts this season. Also, the Yankees southpaw is 0-1 with an 8.25 ERA in his road starts this season. He is facing a surging Blue Jays team that hit him well earlier this month plus enters this game having won 3 of 4 games and scoring an average of 8 runs per game in those contests. This one has the makings of another slugfest at Sahlen Field in Buffalo, NY. Bet the OVER in Toronto in early evening action Thursday.
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09-23-20 |
Cubs v. Pirates OVER 8 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
The Pirates start Trevor Williams in this one. He is 1-8 with a 6.70 ERA. Those numbers are bad enough but what is also concerning for Williams is that he is trending the wrong direction. In his last 5 starts he has a 9.59 ERA and has allowed 11 homers in the 25 and 2 / 3 innings spanning those 5 outings. The Pirates have lost 9 of his last 10 starts and, per our computer math model, he will get pounded here. What has led to line value with this total is that recent games have stayed under the total involving these teams and Kyle Hendricks is on the mound for the Cubs. Those factors resulted in this total opening up at 8 runs which is far too low in our opinion. The Cubs Hendricks is a different pitcher on the road compared to at home. While he has dominated at Wrigley Field this season, Hendricks is just 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA in road outings and opponents have hit .295 against him away from home. The Pirates did see him in his first start this month and that could also help the Pittsburgh bats here. The Pirates have not been scoring a lot of runs lately but they could surprise at home against the Cubs here with some extra momentum after yesterday's 3-2 win. Chicago was 7-3 in their last 10 prior to yesterday's loss and scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in those 7 wins. They should have no trouble with the offerings of Williams here and we're taking advantage of the low total in this one. Bet the OVER in Pittsburgh in early evening action Wednesday.
|
09-22-20 |
Marlins v. Braves OVER 9 |
Top |
1-11 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 54 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET
Yesterday's game saw the Marlins score 3 in the top of the first only to see the Braves answer with 4 in the bottom of the first. 7 runs after just 1 inning. Easy over, right? Nope. The game stalled out, for the most part, after that early surge and it ended up not going over the total as Atlanta went on to a 5-4 win. That sets this one up nicely as it keeps this match-up off the "radar screen" of people who play streaks with totals in MLB. The fact is the Braves are one of the top hitting teams in the majors and the pitching match-up Tuesday sets this one up nicely to be a slugfest. Jose Urena, Miami's starting pitcher tonight, is 2-8 with a 6.55 ERA in his career against the Braves. Also, Urena just faced Atlanta 2 weeks ago and struggled in that outing. He is now a combined 4-12 with a 5.33 ERA the past two seasons combined. He is just getting going this year as he only returned to the rotation earlier this month but in his two starts against NL East teams (lineups familiar with him) he allowed 9 runs (8 earned) in 9 and 1 / 3 innings. The Braves start Bryse Wilson here. He has only made 13 appearances (5 starts) at the MLB level and the results are not impressive. Wilson has a 7.01 ERA and opponents have hit .319 against at the MLB level. The Marlins just saw him for 4 innings earlier this month and though Wilson survived it he was pitching in and out of jams. More of the same expected here per our computer math model but this time the Marlins do more damage at the plate. With both starters hit hard yesterday, each team used a lot of bullpen in yesterday's game which also helps the cause in terms of some potential bullpen struggles in the forecast today after these starters each make an early exit! Bet the OVER in Atlanta in early evening action Tuesday.
|
09-18-20 |
Indians v. Tigers OVER 8.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 49 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers, Friday at 7:05 PM ET
Chilly weather in Detroit this evening. That is driving this total lower. However, the wind actually will be blowing out to right field as a result of the cooler conditions and we view this as a line value opportunity with the total dropping to an 8.5 even though it may not be a surprise to see both starting pitchers get roughed up here. The Indians start Zach Plesac in this one. He is having a great season but is off a rough road start in which he allowed 3 homers. He has now given up 6 homers in his 26 innings on the road this season. While he has dominated at home this season, Plesac has a tendency to make more mistake pitches on the road and the Tigers are 7-4 in their last 11 home games and scored an average of 6.1 runs per game in those 7 wins. The Tigers start Michael Fulmer here and he is having a very rough season. We expect the Indians to do plenty of damage at the plate in this one. Fulmer is winless in NINE starts this season and has a 9.27 ERA with opponents hitting .378 against him on the year! He has allowed 9 earned runs in 5 innings spanning his last two starts. Fulmer faced the Indians in back to back starts in August and neither went well as he was tattooed for 8 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work. Per our computer math model, more of the same is expected here as Cleveland enters this game 13-7 in their last 20 road games and scoring an average of 5.4 runs per game. In games at Detroit, the Indians have scored an average of 7.8 runs per game in 4 road games. The Tigers bullpen is one of the worst in the majors while the Cleveland bullpen, though great overall this season, has had some struggles over the past week and a half. Bet the OVER in Detroit in early evening action Friday.
|
09-17-20 |
Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9.5 |
Top |
7-10 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 0 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET
Our information below includes Chase Anderson as the starter. Even though Julian Merryweather is now expected to get the start, he is only working as an opener. The expectation is that Anderson is still going to get the bulk of the workload in this one. By the way, Merryweather has averaged less than 2 innings per outing. Also, for what it is worth, he has given up 4 earned runs on 7 hits in less than 5 innings of work spanning his last 3 outings. As you can see, Merryweather is unlikely to go unscathed here and then Anderson comes in and gets roughed up. Here is the original write-up: They Yankees suddenly are one of the hottest lineups in baseball. New York has won 7 straight games and has averaged scoring 8.7 runs per game during this hot streak. That is even with two of those 7 wins being 7-inning games (they were part of a double-header). Certainly the Yankees bats should stay hot here as they have been crushing the Blue Jays bullpen in recent meetings and could get into that pen early tonight. That's because the Jays starting pitcher, Chase Anderson, has averaged less than 4 innings per appearance in his 7 starts this season. Anderson has a 13.50 ERA in his two starts this month and facing a red hot Yankees lineup is unlikely to help him get back on track! The Blue Jays also should contribute well to this total. Toronto has averaged a respectable 5.3 runs per game their last 10 games. The Jays will face Masahiro Tanaka in this one and he has been great in his road starts this season but actually has a 4.57 ERA in his 5 home starts on the year. The Jays have some hitters who have given Tanaka some trouble through the years and have plenty of familiarity with him. 7 of the Blue Jays last 10 games have totaled 10 or more runs and, per our computer math model, this one reaches into the double digits in runs as well. Bet the OVER in New York Yankees in early evening action Thursday.
|
09-16-20 |
A's v. Rockies OVER 11.5 |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-104 |
6 h 53 m |
Show
|
ASA MLB TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Colorado Rockies versus Oakland A's, Wednesday at 3:10 PM ET
Last night's game was an unusually low-scoring game by Coors Field standards. Based on this pitching match-up, the teams are likely to make up for it this afternoon. Perhaps last night was impacted by Oakland's travel situation as they had just been in Seattle for a double-header on Sunday. Either way, the bats can be expected to come back to life here. Oakland takes advantage of facing German Marquez as he is known for struggling in his home starts. 2.64 ERA on the road and 6.03 ERA at home this season for Marquez. An aberration? No,not at all. Last season, Marquez had a 3.67 ERA in away games and a 6.26 ERA as a host! More struggles expected here and his counterpart, Mike Fiers, also expected to get pounded in this one. The A's are 7-2 in his starts this season but run support has certainly played a role in that. Fiers has been hit at a .277 clip and has a 5.06 ERA on the season. Those numbers, of course, include zero starts at hitter-friendly Coors Field! That said, a day game in Denver brings out the best in the Rockies lineup and Fiers will end up throwing batting practice in this one! Per our computer math model, it looks like runs will absolutely be coming in bunches in this one and we expect to see some crooked numbers (i.e. teams scoring more than 1 run per half-inning!) being put on the scoreboard early and often in this one. Bet the OVER in Colorado in afternoon action Wednesday
|
09-14-20 |
Braves v. Orioles OVER 10 |
Top |
1-14 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 15 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles, Monday at 7:35 PM ET
Touki Toussaint gets the start for the Braves here. He is coming back from being optioned to Atlanta's alternate training site. That was due to all of his struggles and we don't expect Toussaint to magically bounce back as a result. The fact is Toussaint went 4-0 last season but mostly worked out of the bullpen and that unblemished record did have a blemish on it in the form of a 5.62 ERA in his 24 appearances (1 start). This season he has an even worse 7.98 ERA and that includes a 6.11 ERA over his 4 starts. Historically Toussaint has been much worse on the road in comparison to at home so one could legitimately question why the Braves are bringing him back for a road start instead of a home outing. We question it too and, per our computer math model, projections are showing that he will get crushed tonight. Computer math model projections also are anticipating a rough night for Orioles starter Jorge Lopez in this one. He is facing a red hot Braves lineup that continues to pile up the runs and scored 8 in their win at Washington yesterday. Lopez has a 6.38 ERA this season and has been consistent but not in a good way. The fact is that Lopez is trending very close to his career major league numbers and this is a guy who is 8-15 with a 5.95 ERA in his 66 MLB appearances (30 starts). We look for the Braves to stay red hot at the plate and pound him and this one gets crazy in a hurry. We get some line value because there will be a little breeze blowing in and that is part of the reason this total made an early drop from a 10.5 to a 10 and we won't hesitate in taking advantage of the line move. Bet the OVER in Baltimore in early evening action Monday.
|
09-13-20 |
Orioles v. Yankees OVER 9.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-113 |
3 h 49 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET
After yesterday's 2-1 Yankees win look for the bats to come right back to life here. This is an ideal set up as each of the starting pitchers involved in this one had been struggling but now each enters this start off their best outing of the year thus far. In other words, a regression to the mean can be expected here. Look for things to quickly return to normal for the Orioles John Means and the Yankees JA Happ. Means, despite a strong start against the Mets in his last appearance, is still just 1-3 with a 6.58 ERA this season. Also, he has allowed 7 homers in the 18 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last 4 outings! The Yankees crushed him for 5 earned runs in just 2 and 1 / 3 innings in his only start against them this year. New York's Happ, prior to a strong outing in his most recent start, had allowed 4 earned runs in 3 of his first 5 starts this season. That included allowing 4 earned runs in 4 innings against the Orioles in his lone appearance against them this season. Per our computer math model, both pitchers struggle again in this match-up and it goes soaring over the total in complete contrast to yesterday's pitchers' duel. Bet the OVER in the New York Yankees game in early afternoon action Sunday.
|
09-12-20 |
Braves v. Nationals OVER 8.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-120 |
7 h 11 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals, Saturday at 6:05 PM ET
Yesterday's game totaled 15 runs and went 12 innings. Both of those factors (both teams hitting and both teams using up bullpen arms) are good signs for what to expect today. Rookie Ian Anderson goes for the Braves. He was great in his first start, then got hit some in his second start, then couldn't find the plate in his third start. This is the norm with rookies trying to find their way in their first taste of the majors and now it is another road start against a quality lineup in this one. The Nationals have averaged scoring 6.9 runs per game their last 7 games. The Braves have also been a tear at the plate and their goes back even further. Over their last 13 games, Atlanta has scored 6 or more runs in all but 3 of those games. Even taking out the two outliers (a shutout and a game in which they scored a ridiculous 29 runs!), the Braves averaged 7.5 runs per game the other dozen games. Atlanta has plenty of experience against Patrick Corbin and just crushed him last week so this is not a good match-up for the Nationals left-hander. The Braves hit Corbin hard and get to the southpaw again this time and then get into a suspect Washington bullpen. Per our computer math model, this total of only 9 runs (and some 8.5 out there) is a case of substance over form and the bats should be the story of the day in this one. Bet the OVER in Washington in early evening action Saturday.
|
09-09-20 |
White Sox v. Pirates OVER 9 |
Top |
8-1 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 41 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago White Sox @ Pittburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
Yesterday's starting pitchers combined to allow just 2 runs in 9 innings! However, the bullpens combined to allow 7 runs the rest of the way. The total fell just short of going over but we like the value that result is helping to give us here as we project the bullpens to again struggle and, this time, both starters struggle too! The White Sox start Dane Dunning. The rookie right-hander just made his first road start and it did not go well. Dunning gave up 3 earned runs on 5 hits and 4 walks in 4 and 2 / 3 innings. Overall, 2 of his 3 starts (and his only road outing) have been rough this season. The Pirates start JT Brubaker. He is also a rookie and opponents have hit .290 against him in his 4 home starts. In outings at PNC Park this season Brubaker has a 1.67 WHIP which is a bad sign for him here as he now faces a White Sox team that has won 4 of its last 5 games and scored an average of 7 runs per game in those 5 contests. The Pirates have won 7 of their last 11 home games and have scored an average of 5 runs per game even though 2 of those games were just 7-inning contests. Each team got to double digits in hits yesterday and more of the same expected today with the difference this time that it will result in an over. Per our computer math model, this one gets into double digits in runs! Bet the OVER in Pittsburgh in early evening action Wednesday.
|
09-08-20 |
Royals v. Indians OVER 8.5 |
Top |
8-6 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians, Tuesday at 6:10 PM ET
As football season approaches cooler weather is making its way back into the picture. However, though it is already in the northern plains and upper midwest it has not yet moved east through all of the Great Lakes region. That being said, Cleveland is still on the warm side of the weather front Tuesday and the ball should be carrying quite well in this one. The pitching match-up is ideal for an over. While it is true that neither one of these teams is known for a powerhouse lineup, that is also a key reason as to why this total has been holding in the 8.5 range this morning and that is a great value considering both pitchers are likely to get hit hard. Triston McKenzie is a rookie and this will be the first time ever he has faced a major league team for a 2nd time. Not only that, the Indians right-hander just faced the Royals last week. Though he was successful in that start, McKenzie labored in his prior start and now Kansas City takes advantage of getting a quick second look at him. The Indians also will enjoy facing another pitcher they just saw last week as Jakob Junis takes the mound for the Royals. Junis took a line drive off the forearm of his throwing arm in his most recent outing. That certainly won't help matters for a guy whom is making just his 2nd road start of this season and his 5th start overall. He went 6-10 with a 4.88 ERA in night games in 2018 and 5-10 with a 5.40 ERA in night games last season. This will be his 4th start under the lights this season . He was hit hard in his only road start this season. More of the same here. Indians are 5-1 last 6 games and scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in those victories. The Royals have lost 7 straight games and allowed an average of 7.3 runs per game during this losing streak. . Kansas City again gives up plenty here but they give the rookie McKenzie trouble as they see him for a 2nd time in less than a week. Per our computer math model, this one gets into double digits in runs! Bet the OVER in Cleveland in early evening action Tuesday
|
09-05-20 |
Reds v. Pirates OVER 9 |
Top |
6-2 |
Loss |
-118 |
8 h 10 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET
The set up is perfect here as these teams are off a double header yesterday. Those games totaled 6 and 7 runs respectively but keep in mind those were only 7 inning games since it was a double header. Also, all those runs yesterday were scored in the first 5 innings yesterday. We fully expect these teams to again get to at least 6 or 7 runs by the midway point of the game once again and this time, being a 9-inning game, it should easily get over the total. The Reds are starting Anthony DeSclafani here. He is off his first start since coming back from paternity leave and he was rocked for 7 runs in less than 4 innings of work. Also, the Pirates are loaded with hitters that have good history against DeSclafani. Not only high batting averages but also guys like Bell, Frazier, Moran, Newman, and Polanco have combined for 9 homers in 77 at bats against him. As you can see the Bucs hitters have a lot of experience against DeSclafani and have taken him deep often. The Reds right-hander has a 7.71 ERA this season but the only good news for him here is that he should be the recipient of plenty of run support in this one! The Cincinnati sticks will be teeing off against Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams in this one. He is 1-5 with a 5.50 ERA on the season. Reds hitters Barnhart, Casali, Castellanos, Galvis, Votto, Winker all have had good success against Williams with high averages. Prior to yesterday's double-header (again those are shortened games!) 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games had totaled 11 or more runs. The Reds are known for a struggling bullpen. The Pirates, prior to yesterday's double-header had seen 5 of their 7 preceding games total 10 or more runs. Per our computer math model, this one gets into double digits in runs as well! Bet the OVER in Pittsburgh in early evening action Saturday.
|
09-04-20 |
Marlins v. Rays UNDER 8 |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-112 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays, Friday at 6:40 PM ET
Pablo Lopez gets the start for the Marlins here. Not only does he have a 2.10 ERA on the season he has been particularly strong on the road where he has a 1.20 ERA this year. The Rays counter with Josh Fleming and he is undefeated with a 1.74 ERA so far this season. Opponents are hitting only .189 against Fleming. Opponents are hitting just .224 against Lopez in his road starts. In 6 starts overall this season Lopez has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in any of them. Fleming has allowed a total of just 2 earned runs in his 2 starts this season. The Marlins last 9 games have featured only 2 that totaled more than 8 runs and this game opened up with the O/U set at 8 runs. Miami's last 6 games featured one high-scoring match-up with the Rays but in the other 5 games the Marlins have scored an average of only 1.8 runs. Tampa Bay is 7-1 in its last 8 games but strong pitching, rather than strong hitting, has played a key role in all the winning. The Rays only had one game of the 8 total more than 8 runs. Tampa has allowed 3 or less runs in 6 of their past 8 games. Per our computer math model, another low-scoring game on tap between these Florida foes. Bet the UNDER in Tampa Bay in early evening action Friday.
|
09-03-20 |
White Sox v. Royals OVER 9 |
Top |
11-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 8:05 PM ET
The White Sox scored just 1 run at Minnesota yesterday while the Royals were shutout at home by the Indians yesterday. That actually makes this the perfect bounce back set-up for an over today. Chicago is starting Dylan Cease and he just faced the Royals last week and walked 6 in 4 and 1 / 3 innings. Cease escaped damage in that start but the story will likely be different now that he faces them at Kansas City in this one. In fact, he has allowed 8 runs (6 earned) in 8 innings over two career starts at KC. On the road this season opponents are hitting .280 against Cease. Speaking of getting hit hard, Danny Duffy has allowed 5 homers in his last 4 starts and that includes 2 home runs allowed versus the White Sox and that was just last week! Chicago gets another look at him less than a week later and that is bad news for Duffy as he has struggled against the White Sox historically. Being division rivals there is a lot of familiarity for the White Sox hitters with Duffy since he has been with the Royals for his entire career and that has spanned an entire decade. Bet the OVER in Kansas City in evening action Thursday.
|
09-02-20 |
Mets v. Orioles OVER 10 |
Top |
9-4 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles, Wednesday at 4:05 PM ET
Yesterday's game was 8-5 for 13 runs through SIX innings and ultimately ended up a 9-5 final. The Orioles have scored 5 or more runs in each of their last 4 home games. Baltimore is likely to have little trouble with the offerings of the struggling Met Michael Wacha. In his starts in the month of August, Wacha went 0-2 with a 9.75 ERA. Though he piled up strikeouts, the problem for Wacha is that when contact has been made it has been solid contact. In other words, when he misses with his location those offerings have been crushed. Things are unlikely to improve for Wacha here as he makes his first day game start of 2020. Last season he had a 5.62 ERA in 11 day game starts and opponents hit .306 against him. The Orioles won't be the only team mashing the ball this afternoon. The Mets will take advantage of facing a struggling John Means. The Baltimore southpaw is 0-2 with an 8.59 ERA in his five starts this season. Means has a 10.13 ERA in his 4 home starts this year and got destroyed in his only day game outing. Last season, a good one for Means, saw him allow opponents to hit just .217 against him in night starts but .274 in day game starts. In other words, this is not the spot for Means to turn it around. Per our computer math model, just like yesterday's game, there is a strong probability this game reaches the double digit mark in runs scored by the 6th inning! Bet the OVER in Baltimore in afternoon action Wednesday.
|
09-01-20 |
Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 9 |
Top |
3-6 |
Push |
0 |
28 h 51 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET
After a day off Monday, these teams are back beginning a new series on Tuesday. How did August go for the Dodgers bats? How about setting a new team record with 57 homers for the month! Things are not so rosy for the Diamondbacks as they endured plenty of losing in recent weeks but look for LA's Julio Urias to help the Arizona bats come back to life here. Urias has struggled in his last two starts with those outings lasting just 5 and 2 / 3 innings and the lefty allowing 5 earned runs on 10 hits and 4 walks in those two shortened appearances. The Diamondbacks faced Urias exactly one month ago to the day so seeing him again will also be an edge for the hitters and they catch the southpaw in a downward trend as his fastball velocity is down and yet the velocity on his offspeed stuff is up. That is not the dynamic you want to present to major league hitters and until he sorts this out he needs to be faded. The good news for Urias here is that he should be the recipient of plenty of run support in this one. Arizona has lost 10 of its last 11 games and allowed an average of 5 runs per game during this stretch. The Dodgers have won 15 of 18 games and scored an average of 6.3 runs per game during this stretch. LA will be facing Alex Young of the Diamondbacks in this one. He was great in day games last season but had a 4.31 ERA in his night games compared to a 2.17 ERA in day games. That trend has continued this season for Young as he has a 5.40 ERA in evening action and now faces the best team in baseball! The Dodgers have seen Young twice out of the bullpen already this season and in his lone career start at Dodger Stadium, Young got rocked for 4 earned runs in 3 and 1 / 3 innings! Per our computer math model, more of the same for Young is on tap in this one! The Dodgers .499 slugging percentage in home games ranks among the best marks in the majors! Bet the OVER in LA Dodgers in late night action Tuesday.
|
08-30-20 |
Padres v. Rockies OVER 12.5 |
Top |
13-2 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 19 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET
Yesterday's game saw the teams combine for 23 hits but there were 5 double plays in the game and it totaled only 7 runs. The prior game between these teams on Friday totaled 14 runs. That was preceded by the following run totals in the Rockies 3 preceding home games: 18, 19, 16. The weather in Denver this afternoon will be very warm and very dry and the conditions are perfect for the ball to be jumping off the bat and carrying very well at Coors Field. Per our computer math model, a run total in the range of the 17 runs that the Rockies 4 preceding home games averaged is what is expected here this afternoon. Chris Paddack gets the start for San Diego in this one. He has not been himself this season and opponents are hitting .303 with a .797 slugging percentage against his fastball. That, in and of itself, is a problem for Paddack. Adding to the concern for him here is the fact that he has been hit hard on the road this season plus now makes his first ever start at Colorado. Coors Field has been known to be a bit of a "house of horrors" for young pitchers when they make their first appearance there and this outing is likely to go no differently with the poor recent form of Paddack. As for Rockies starter Ryan Castellani, like most Colorado pitchers he is much better on the road than at home. In his most recent home start he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 and 2 / 3 innings. Castellani only struck out 1 in that game and the rookie right-hander has given up a pair of homers in each of his last two starts overall. He is facing a Padres team that has a .479 slugging percentage on the season. That is the #1 ranked slugging percentage in the National League. Prior to yesterday's loss, San Diego had won 9 of its last 11 games and scored an average of 8.4 runs per game in those 9 victories. Look for an 9-8 type game in this one as it flies over the total. Bet the OVER in Colorado in afternoon action Sunday.
|
08-26-20 |
Cubs v. Tigers OVER 10.5 |
Top |
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 2 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago Cubs @ Detroit Tigers, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET
On the one hand Jonathan Schoop hit a grand slam for the Tigers last night. On the other hand, the rest of the night these two teams combined to go 1 for 12 with runners in scoring position. For the most part it was a game that lacked clutch hitting and that is why it fell just short of the O/U of 9 runs as the game ended with a total of 8 runs scored. Look for tonight's match-up, featuring two struggling starting pitchers, to make up for last night's shortfall. Certainly the Cubs should bounce back after scoring just one run last night. They'll take advantage of facing a struggling Michael Fulmer. The Tigers right hander has not lasted more than 3 innings in any of his 4 starts. Not only do the short outings bring a bad Detroit bullpen into play, Fulmer generally has been rocked by the time he exits his start. One of the four was a decent outing but in the other three Fulmer allowed 12 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings. The Tigers also will be teeing off at the plate tonight! Chicago is starting Jon Lester. The veteran southpaw just can't locate his cutter in recent starts and, lacking an overpowering fastball, the inability to locate his breaking pitches is a major problem. How major? Lester has allowed 13 earned runs in 9 and 2 / 3 innings over his last two starts. The Cubs have allowed at least 7 runs in each of their last 4 losses. The Cubs have scored at least 6 runs in 5 of their last 7 wins that were 9 inning games (teams playing 7 inning games in double headers this season). That is another reason we're expecting for a lot of runs in this one either way. Per our computer math model, the winner is tough to call in this match-up but the fact that plenty of runs will be scored is not a tough call! Look for at least 11 in this one per our computer math model. Bet the OVER in Detroit in early evening action Wednesday.
|
08-25-20 |
Mariners v. Padres UNDER 8 |
Top |
8-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres, Tuesday at 9:10 PM ET
Chris Paddack starts for the Padres here. The right-hander has been phenomenal in his home starts. Last season Paddack went 6-3 with a 3.06 ERA and a .188 BAA at Petco Park. This year, in his 2nd MLB season, Paddack has a 2.66 ERA in his 4 home starts and has held opponents to a .212 batting average. The Mariners, being an AL team, don't have much familiarity with him and the hitters that do are a combined 6 for 31 against Paddack in his career. Seattle starts Marco Gonzales here. The Mariners southpaw has been fantastic in 3 of his last 4 starts. Gonzales has allowed just 4 earned runs on only 11 hits in 20 and 1 / 3 innings spanning those 3 outings. The Padres lineup has not faced him other than Dee Gordon and he is 0 for 3 in his career against him. Big edges for the pitchers in this one. Seattle is hitting .224 this season which ranks them 26th in the majors out of 30 teams. The Padres have been hitting better and are on a 7-game winning streak but their numbers are a bit skewed too. Their 5 runs in closing out their most recent series came on just 6 hits. In the opener of that series they were held to just 4 runs. Prior to that series San Diego had a couple of 10th inning victories including one that was one on a 10th inning grand slam after they managed just 2 runs through the first 9 innings. Considering all of those factors and the lack of familiarity with Gonzales and much of the Mariners bullpen arms, the Padres will struggle at the plate here and the Mariners will struggle with Paddack as his home dominance continues. Bet the UNDER in San Diego in late night action Tuesday.
|
08-23-20 |
Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 10.5 |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-112 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET
The Red Sox team ERA of 5.89 is only ahead of one of the 30 teams in MLB! Also, the Orioles 4.89 team ERA ranks them in the bottom third of the majors as well! Each of these teams has struggled with their pitching this season and Boston (now in sell mode) already traded away a pair of bullpen arms to the Phillies. The starting pitching match-up here also screams "over" which is why this total is so high too. Yes a 10.5 is a big number but our computer math model projects this game ending with more than a dozen runs. The Red Sox start Zack Godley. Opponents are hitting .333 against Godley this season and he is still seeking his first win. In 5 games (4 starts) Godley has a 6.87 ERA. Last season Godley registered a 5.97 ERA and this is the part of the reason he is now with his 3rd team in 2 seasons! The fact is the Red Sox are desperate for pitching and the Orioles are ranked 5th in the majors with a .453 slugging percentage and should crush Godley and the Boston bullpen today. Baltimore is starting Wade LeBlanc in this one. The veteran lefty has struggled in 4 of his 5 starts this season and that includes his season opening effort against the Red Sox. LeBlanc has a 7.89 ERA on the season and the Red Sox have a number of hitters in their lineup who have hit him hard in their career meetings. More of the same is expected here and this one is forecast to turn into a back and forth high-scoring affair with both teams turning to questionable bullpen arms early in this one after both starters get hit hard! Bet the OVER in the Baltimore Orioles game in early afternoon action Sunday
|
08-22-20 |
Tigers v. Indians OVER 9.5 |
Top |
1-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET
The Indians had won 6 straight games before yesterday's 10-5 loss to the Tigers. Cleveland has averaged scoring nearly 6 runs per game during this 7-game stretch. Neither one of these teams is known for strong production at the plate this season but the fact is that they are both trending in a positive direction in that regard. Detroit has scored 4 or more runs in 7 of their last 11 games and should enjoy success Saturday against a rookie making his MLB debut. Not only is this the MLB debut for Triston McKenzie, he has never pitched above the AA level in the minors so this is a big jump for him. Yesterday's total of 15 runs marked the 6th time in the Tigers last 10 games that their game totaled a dozen or more runs. Of course the fact that Detroit has a 5.99 ERA on the season (dead last in the majors) certainly factors into that and it is a weak bullpen backing up a struggling starting pitcher for this one. The Tigers send Matthew Boyd to the mound and the southpaw is 0-3 with a 9.64 ERA this season. He has been having trouble with allowing too many homers and a visit to Cleveland is unlikely to help him. Boyd allowed a total of 5 homers in his 2 starts at Progressive Field last season. Per our computer math model, more of the same is on tap this evening as this one soars over the total. Bet the OVER in the Cleveland Indians game in early evening action Saturday
|
08-21-20 |
Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 10 |
Top |
8-5 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Friday at 7:35 PM ET
The Red Sox have a 6.01 team ERA which ranks just above Detroit in the battle for the worst spot in the majors! Of course that is not a battle you want to be in but the Red Sox are simply void of solid pitching this season. Nathan Eovaldi made a great start for them yesterday and that was much needed and is rare. Today the Red Sox are going with a "bullpen game" in terms of the starting pitching and of course that is bad news for a team with a 6.01 ERA on the season! Boston is expected to use Colten Brewer (side note here we do not care who starts for Boston, we like the over no matter who gets the call as the opener). Brewer's first career start saw him take 73 pitches just to get through 2 and 2 / 3 innings and we expect this outing to also be a struggle for him. The Orioles are starting John Means in this one and the southpaw has had a rough start to the 2020 season. His father passed away and he missed time and is dealing with that emotionally. In terms of physical issues, Means had missed time due to arm fatigue and has simply not been right early this season. The Orioles bullpen is honestly not much better than the Red Sox and plus Means is only expected to last about 50 pitches here and then Jorge Lopez will likely be up next. Means has a 10.57 ERA in his 3 starts this season. Lopez is 7-15 with a 5.94 ERA in his career and has struggled this season too. Before struggling at the plate in their past two games, the Orioles had enjoyed an 11-game stretch in which they averaged 6.5 runs per game. Boston has scored at least 6 runs in 3 straight games and, per our computer math model, each team has a strong chance of getting to 6 runs in this one and it flies over the total as a result. Bet the OVER in the Baltimore Orioles game in early evening action Friday
|
08-17-20 |
Nationals v. Braves OVER 10 |
Top |
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves, Monday at 7:10 PM ET
The Braves Touki Toussaint is coming off a rough start against the Yankees. He is likely in for another rough one here as he has a history of struggles against the Nationals and that has proven true even when he faces them at home where Toussaint normally pitches better. That being said, and with favorable weather conditions at hitter-friendly Truist Park expected tonight, this game has potential to turn into quite a slug-fest. Toussaint has an 8.59 ERA in his career against the Nationals and has walked 10 in just 7 and 1 / 3 innings of work when facing Washington. Last season against the Nats he gave up 2 homers in 6 and 1 / 3 innings. This season Toussaint had an outing featuring 4 scoreless innings against the Mets. However, in his other 3 outings he has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in 13 and 1 / 3 innings. Per our computer math model, another rough outing is on tap here for Toussaint. Speaking of rough times ahead, the Nationals are starting Anibal Sanchez here. The right-hander has lost all 3 of his starts and compiled a 9.69 ERA so far this season. He has allowed 5 homers in 13 innings this season. Washington has scored an average of 7 runs per game L7 games. Atlanta is 7-2 in home games this season and has averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in the 7 victories. Bet the OVER in the Atlanta Braves game in early evening action Monday.
|
08-16-20 |
Dodgers v. Angels OVER 10 |
Top |
8-3 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 24 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET
The Angels Julio Teheran is struggling early this season (13.50 ERA) and now faces a Dodgers team whose .449 slugging percentage ranks 4th in the majors! The Dodgers are heating up at the plate too as they have won 4 straight games and scored an average of 7.5 runs per game in those victories. They will need all the runs they can get in this one because our computer math model is also forecasting their starter, Dustin May, to struggle in this one. May has a low ERA early this season but certainly has been far from unhittable. What we like most about this match-up is the Angels most dangerous hitters are powerful right-handed sticks like Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Coupled with the fact the Angels will likely have 5 of their other 7 sticks stepping in on the left-handed side of the plate and you have the makings of a rough start for May. Last season he had a 9.53 ERA against lefties and they hit .346 against him! This season so far lefties are hitting .306 against May. The Angels have scored an average of 5.8 runs per game in their past 5 games and 4 of those 5 games ended with a game total of 11 or more runs being scored. Our computer math model is forecasting that this one will too and we look for another high-scoring game at Angel Stadium. Bet the OVER in the LA Angels game in late afternoon action Sunday.
|
08-14-20 |
Braves v. Marlins OVER 8.5 |
Top |
2-8 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 3 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins, Friday at 7:10 PM ET
The Braves are off a 6-3 loss to the Yankees Wednesday but they had 11 hits in that game. Atlanta entered that game having averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their 4 prior games and 2 of those games were only 7 innings long because the Braves played a double-header during this stretch. The point is that the Braves have been swinging the bats quite well. The Marlins also have enjoyed some recent success at the plate. Overall, Miami has been a big surprise early this season and they are 8-4 on the year which makes this a big showdown in the NL East. The Marlins have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their 8 victories this season and have scored at least 4 runs in 5 of their past 6 games. Getting each team to 4 runs in this game guarantees us a winning ticket with this total set at 8.5 runs. We like our chances in that regard as Miami will have plenty of confidence at the plate in their home stadium and off a 14-11 win over Toronto on Wednesday. The Braves .437 slugging percentage ranks them 8th in the majors out of 30 teams. Miami starter Pablo Lopez is winless in his 5 career starts against Atlanta. The Braves start Kyle Wright in this one and he is now 0-5 with a 7.41 ERA in his 14 career appearances (7 starts) at the MLB level. He gave up 2 homers in his lone career start against the Marlins and Miami will bring momentum into this one from the successful finish to the series with the Blue Jays. The Marlins also are thrilled to finally be able to play a game at home in Miami after being away for so long due to the Covid-19 situation. Bet the OVER in the Miami Marlins game in early evening action Friday.
|
08-11-20 |
Nationals v. Mets OVER 8.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-111 |
10 h 55 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Washington Nationals @ New York Mets, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET
The Nationals Max Scherzer left his last start, also against the Mets, after just 1 inning due to tightness in a hamstring. Certainly Scherzer is a great pitcher but that is when he is healthy. He is not 100% and the hamstring is on his mind. This is a road start for him against a division rival that is familiar with him. The Mets lost yesterday's game to Washington by a final score of 16-4 and New York's last 7 home games have totaled an average of 11 runs per game. In this one we get an O/U of only 8.5 runs to work with as Scherzer's long-term reputation carries weight of course and keeps this total lower than it should be per our computer math model. Rick Porcello gets the start for the Mets here and is off of a strong start against the Nationals but he was fortunate as he gave up a lot of hard contact. Of course hard contact and Porcello go hand in hand! Prior to his start against Washington, Porcello was 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA in his first two starts this season. He entered this season off a 14-12 year last season but that was thanks to run support as Porcello had a 5.52 ERA on the campaign! The Nationals exploded for 16 runs on 17 hits in yesterday's big win and will be very confident at the plate this evening as a result of yesterday's success plus the fact they just faced Porcello last week. Bet the OVER in the New York Mets game in early evening action Tuesday.
|
08-08-20 |
Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 26 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres, Saturday at 9:10 PM ET
The Diamondbacks have averaged scoring only 2.4 runs per game in their 7 road games this season. Arizona got shut out by the Padres last night and are likely in for another tough night at the plate Saturday. That is because Chris Paddack takes the mound for San Diego here. He has been very sharp already this season. He also is at his best at home. Paddack is already 2-0 in his 2 home starts this season and last season at home he went 6-3 with a 3.06 ERA and opponents hit just .188 against him at Petco Park. The Diamondbacks starting pitcher tonight should also enjoy success. Merrill Kelly has been sharp overall in his early season action (even battling hard against a tough Dodgers lineup) and the Padres have averaged only 6 hits per game in their past 3 games. Kelly had a great September last year and has carried that momentum right into this season. He is now 5-2 with a 2.31 ERA in his last 7 starts! In Kelly's last two starts against the Padres he has pitched 14 scoreless innings while allowing just 5 hits and striking out 18! Suffice to say he has plenty of confidence entering this match-up against the Padres. Per our computer math model runs will be few and far between in this one. Bet the UNDER in San Diego in late night action Saturday.
|
08-07-20 |
Twins v. Royals OVER 9.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 42 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals, Friday at 8:05 PM ET
You never want to over-react to one game but the Royals 13-2 win yesterday was a big one for this team. It is the kind of confidence-boosting win that can get an entire lineup going. KC pounded out 18 hits and got RBI's yesterday from 7 of the 9 lineup spots. In other words, it was a true team effort and gives Kansas City a lot of confidence heading into this match-up against a struggling Twins pitcher. Keep in mind, yesterday's game was the 3rd time in 4 games that a Royals home game has totaled at least 11 runs. Also, facing the Twins Devin Smeltzer should help the Royals bats carry momentum from yesterday's big win. Smeltzer got rocked in his lone appearance on the road this season and also struggled in his outings away from home last season. Kansas City starts Jakob Junis in this one. He went 4-8 with a 5.85 ERA in his home starts last season. Kauffman Stadium can be a very hitter friendly ballpark especially when the wind is blowing out like it is expected to be tonight. Junis first start this season (versus the White Sox) did not go well. Now he faces a Twins lineup loaded with home run power. Junis has allowed 8 homers in his last 6 starts against Minnesota and, per our computer math model, more struggles for him against this potent lineup are expected tonight. Bet the OVER in Kansas City in evening action Friday.
|
08-06-20 |
Yankees v. Phillies OVER 9.5 |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 9 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies, Thursday at 6:05 PM ET
There is rain in the Philly area this morning and could be some lingering afternoon activity as well. However, forecasts as of now indicate a quieter period in the early evening before rain possibly resumes overnight. In any event, this situation is too strong to ignore and we hope the weather stays away enough that they are able to play the full 9 innings in this one. Zach Eflin is actually the #4 starter for the Phillies but making his first appearance of the season due to prior covid-19 and weather cancellations. Very tough for a pitcher to stay sharp when the season started two weeks ago and yet he is just now getting his shot at game action on the mound! Plus Eflin will be facing a Yankees team whose .491 slugging percentage is tops in the majors. Eflin has good stuff in his repertoire of pitches but he has never been able to fully harness it and has a 4.73 ERA at the MLB level as he now enters his 5th season. The Yankees start Jordan Montgomery here and he'll be facing a Phillies lineup that came to life yesterday with a big 11-7 win in the first game of yesterday's double header. Philadelphia's .424 slugging percentage ranks them 7th among the 30 teams in the majors. Montgomery does have a knack for giving up the long ball particularly in road starts. Also, this will be just his 9th start since his rookie season in 2017 which was the last time he had significant activity at the MLB level. In other words you've got two starting pitchers here who are each question marks to an extent based on the above. You also have two potent powerful lineups and our computer math model is calling for a dozen runs to be scored in this one. Bet the OVER in Philadelphia in early evening action Thursday.
|
08-05-20 |
Reds v. Indians UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
102 |
9 h 13 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET
The Indians have struggled to score runs all season. They show an average of 2.7 runs per game in their first 12 games but the reality is that it is even worse than that. Cleveland had a big game earlier this season in which they scored 9 runs. Other than that the Tribe have scored just 23 runs in their other 11 games. That is an average of 2.1 runs per game which is hard to believe. It won't get any easier for the slumping Indians bats here. That's because they are facing Tejay Antone of the Reds. The Cincinnati right-hander made his debut against a Cubs team that is currently in 1st place in the division and certainly a tough lineup to face. Antone shut them down with just 1 hit allowed over 4+ innings. The rookie right-hander also looked sharp in spring training and summer camp. Adding to his value in this spot is that the struggling lineup of the Indians (.183 batting average on season ranking dead last!) has never faced him. As for the Reds bats, they have also been quiet of late. Cincinnati has scored 15 runs in their last 5 games. Yes, two of those games were in a double-header and those are being played as just 7-inning games this season, but the fact is the Reds have a .213 batting average on the season which ranks them 23rd out of the 30 teams in the majors. Cincinnati will face a tough pitcher today as Mike Clevinger gets the start for the Indians. The Cleveland right-hander is coming off a rare tough start as he has been one of the most consistent hurlers in the game over the past 3 seasons compiling a 38-18 record with an ERA under the magical 3.00 mark! Also his tough outing in his last start was at Minnesota but now he is back home where he excelled in his first start this season plus went 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA last season. Per our computer math model, runs will be very tough to come by in this one. Bet the UNDER in Cleveland in early evening action Wednesday.
|
08-04-20 |
Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8 |
Top |
1-5 |
Loss |
-101 |
10 h 35 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET
The value here is huge. This total opened up at an 8.5 which was already low (more on that in a moment) but then dropped down to a solid 8 which adds even more value to this one. Everyone saw the Rays struggle on their road trip but they are a different team at home and also will get to Nathan Eovaldi early and often in this one. Tampa Bay is averaging 6.6 runs per game when hitting at Tropicana Field this season. Eovaldi is still getting factored into games as if he was the same pitcher who raised his game in the 2018 post-season with the Red Sox. The fact is that he is not as all the injuries have caught up with him. He has had two Tommy John surgeries and is coming off an injury-shortened 2019 campaign as well. Eovaldi compiled a 5.99 ERA last season in 23 games (12 starts) and he got rocked by the Mets for 8 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start. The Rays Charlie Morton got rocked in his first start this season (at home no less) but then was better in his 2nd one though he still allowed 6 hits in 5 innings and was hit quite hard. He struggles more against lefties and the Red Sox will have plenty of left-handed lumber in the lineup tonight plus some big right-handed sticks like Xander Bogaerts whom no one wants to face! While the Rays do have a solid bullpen behind Morton the Red Sox bats are quite dangerous. As for the Boston bullpen, they have issues and their team ERA is high for a reason! That said, the Red Sox pitching is bad enough that the Rays bats come to life at home. The Boston bats are strong enough that the Rays pitchers prove susceptible. Combining those factors and the fact that Eovaldi and Morton have been more hittable than usual early this season and you have the makings of an easy over in this one. Bet the OVER in the Rays game in early evening action Tuesday
|
08-03-20 |
Indians v. Reds UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 0 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Cleveland Indians @ Cincinnati Reds, Monday at 6:40 PM ET
The Indians have struggled to score runs all season. They show an average of 2.6 runs per game in their first 10 games but the reality is that it is even worse than that. Cleveland had a big game earlier this season in which they scored 9 runs. Other than that the Tribe have scored just 17 runs in their other 9 games. That is an average of 1.9 runs per game which is hard to believe. It won't get any easier for the slumping Indians bats here. That's because they are facing Sonny Gray of the Reds. The Cincinnati right-hander has absolutely dominated in his first two starts and continues piling up strikeouts! As for the Reds bats, they have also been quiet of late. Cincinnati has scored 10 runs in their last 3 games. Yes, the last two were a double header and those are being played as just 7-inning games this season but the fact is the Reds have a .226 batting average on the season which ranks them 20th out of the 30 teams in the majors. Cincinnati will face a tough pitcher today as Zach Plesac gets the start for the Indians. The Cleveland right-hander is coming off a solid 2019 and got 2020 off to a great start as he absolutely handcuffed the White Sox in a dominating effort in which he fanned 11 in 6 innings. Per our computer math model, runs will be very tough to come by in this one. Bet the UNDER in Cincinnati in early evening action Monday.
|
08-02-20 |
Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9.5 |
Top |
7-9 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 45 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, Sunday at 7:08 PM ET
Yesterday's game saw 7 runs scored by the top of the 3rd inning and then the bats went silent. That is highly unlikely to happen again today. The Red Sox team ERA ranks among the worst in the majors so far this season. Boston is scheduled to use Austin Brice as an opener in this one. That said, it really wouldn't matter who the Red Sox use as the starter here but he is the one that is scheduled for Boston as of this morning. Again, this one is being called a "bullpen game" for the Red Sox. Brice has a 5.00 ERA in his 110 MLB appearances and has never started a game. This season he has allowed 4 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. The wind is expected to be blowing out to left field for this one on Sunday evening in the Bronx. That will help the hitters for both teams of course and we like the chances of the Boston bats coming back to life after last night's dismal result. The Red Sox will face James Paxton who is off a horrible start in which he was rocked by the Nationals. He is trying to get back to his usual form after having back surgery early this year. Suffice to say early indicators point to issues. Paxton plans to make some adjustments for this start but he tends to be a streaky pitcher as evidenced by his month to month stats last season. We're banking on an early season down cycle for him this season and expect another tough start in his 2nd outing of the season. Bet the OVER in the Yankees game in early evening action Sunday
|
07-31-20 |
Mets v. Braves OVER 10 |
Top |
10-11 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 6 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, Friday at 7:10 PM ET
Both teams are off games in which they scored just 2 runs last night. However, the O/U on this one opened up at a 10 with good reason. The Mets were hosting the Red Sox last night and fell short but now face Sean Newcomb of the Braves whom they already faced last week. The Braves hung on for a 2-1 win hosting the Rays last night. While their bats were quiet in that game, Atlanta will now take advantage of again seeing Rick Porcello as they faced him this past weekend in their opening series of the season. Porcello struggled and gave up 7 earned runs in just 2 innings in that outing against the Braves. He had a 5.52 ERA with the Red Sox last season and giving a team a second look at you after they just rocked you in your prior start usually doesn't go well for a struggling hurler. That being said, Porcello has seen his better days in this league and is on the downhill slide at this point in his career. Atlanta's Newcomb had a ton of trouble with his command against the Mets this past weekend and it took 82 pitches for him just to record 10 outs as he lasted just 3 and 1 / 3 innings in that start. The Braves lefty is notorious for being a slow starter as he had a rough April each of the past two years. In this strange pandemic year, this is Newcomb's April and, per our computer math model, more struggles ensue today for both starting pitchers and the bullpens will again be called upon far too early as a result. Bet the OVER in the Braves game in early evening action Friday
|
07-30-20 |
Yankees v. Orioles OVER 10 |
Top |
8-6 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET
The Yankees (9 runs scored, 3 homers) proved yesterday that missing a series in Philly (due to the covid-19 situation with the Marlins who had just visited there) was not going to impact their bats. Indeed the Yankees had their big lumber going yesterday and we expect more of the same tonight. John Means gets the start for the Orioles. The lefty was supposed to start the season opener for Baltimore but did not due to arm fatigue. That is certainly not a good sign for Means and he does not have overpowering stuff plus is a flyball pitcher. Yes he had some success for the Orioles last year but not against New York. The Yankees crushed Means for 10 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings in the two times they faced him as a starter. Plus, with arm fatigue already an issue for Means entering this season, you could see an early exit for him here and that gets the Yanks powerful bats into a weak Orioles bullpen. Baltimore had a 5.92 ERA in home games last season - the worst mark in the league. Yankees start JA Happ here and the southpaw would likely rather face someone other than the Orioles. Happ's 6.85 ERA in 5 starts against Baltimore last season show that this is a team that gives him trouble. Happ gave up 7 homers to the Orioles last season and no team hit more against him . There were 4 homers hit in yesterday's game and the ball will again be carrying well at Camden Yards again tonight with a favorable weather report for the hitters. All signs, including our computer math model, point to this game turning into a high-scoring affair with plenty of big innings expected. Bet the OVER in the Orioles game in early evening action Thursday
|
07-29-20 |
Rays v. Braves UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
4-7 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET
Charlie Morton starts for the Rays here. He was great through the first three innings of his first start of the season. Morton then uncharacteristically ran into trouble in both the 4th and 5th innings. He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball (45-16 last 3 seasons) and will bounce back strong here facing the team that he began his career with. Morton had a 3.08 ERA the last 2 seasons and is known for responding well when off a rough outing. The Rays right-hander had a 1.39 ERA in his 8 starts last season which followed an outing in which he was charged with 4 or more runs. Morton will take advantage of facing a Braves team that is not swinging the bats very well. Atlanta had one big game at the plate so far this season but in the other 4 games (3 losses), the Braves have scored an average of only 3 runs a game. The key to the value with the under here is that the Braves are turning to their staff ace Mike Soroka for this start. He pitched 6 scoreless innings in his opening day start and is coming off a season in which he went 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA. The Rays have very little familiarity with him and like the Braves, have had only one big game at the plate so far this season. Other than one strong game, Tampa Bay's other 4 games have seen them average only 6 hits per game! Soroka versus Morton, per our computer math model, is set up perfect to be a pitchers duel. Bet the UNDER in Atlanta in early evening action Wednesday.
|
07-28-20 |
Blue Jays v. Nationals OVER 10 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-105 |
19 h 8 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 6:05 PM ET
The Blue Jays ended up without Bo Bichette, Randal Grichuk, and Travis Shaw on Monday and yet Toronto still finished with 4 homers in the game. The problem for anyone who had the over in Monday's contest was that all 4 homers were solo shots in the 4-1 win. The other problem (speaking for those who had the over) was that the Blue Jays recorded 4 double plays, the teams went a combined 2 for 14 with runners in scoring position and the Nationals scored just 1 run despite 10 hits. All these signs point to a much higher scoring match-up on Tuesday even if the above mentioned players are again out of the lineup (although 1 or 2 are likely to be back in it). The key is the pitching match-up here and the fact that the Nationals wasted so many opportunities Monday and are likely to bounce back huge at the plate after the 4-1 home loss. The Blue Jays are starting former Nat Tanner Roark and he was very hittable in summer camp and got hit at a .279 clip on the road last season. He is a combined 19-25 the past two seasons and has had unimpressive ERAs for the season the past 3 years since his phenomenal 2016 campaign. Roark may be guilty of "overthrowing" here as emotion gets the best of him as he faces his former team in DC. Also, Blue Jays closer Ken Giles is out with an injury! We also look for the Nationals starting pitcher, Austin Voth, to struggle in this one. The right-hander struggled against left-handed bats last season in terms of batting average against and the Jays had 4 left-handed bats in last night's lineup. Against righties, Voth had trouble in terms of power with 4 homers allowed in 24 innings versus righties. The Jays proved again last night, even without their full lineup, that they have plenty of power as they knocked 4 out of the park. Toronto entered this season with plenty expected at the plate but they faced the pitching-rich Rays to open the season and that held them back some. On Tuesday they take advantage of facing the Nats #5 starter. At the same time, the Nationals run production picks up after a crazy result in Monday's game filled with wasted opportunities for the home team. Bet the OVER in Washington in early evening action Tuesday.
|
07-26-20 |
Twins v. White Sox OVER 10 |
Top |
14-2 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 55 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET
Kenta Maeda gets the start for the Twins here. He had some impressive numbers (at times) in LA courtesy of pitching in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. On the road was a different story for Maeda. Last season was the 2nd time in the past 3 seasons that Maeda had an ERA north of 5.00 away from home. Now he faces a White Sox team that pounded out 5 homers in yesterday's 10-3 win over the Twins. It will be hot and humid weather with the wind expected to be blowing out to left-center at Guaranteed Rate Field Sunday. Minnesota, 10-5 winners Friday, will also take advantage of this. Per our computer math model, there will be plenty of runs scored in this Sunday match-up with a result similar to the first two games of the series. The White Sox are starting Reynaldo Lopez here. The righty particularly struggled against left-handed batters last season and it is likely that about half of the Twins lineup will step in on that side of the plate Sunday. Remember that Friday's game - an explosion on offense for Minny - came against a right-handed starter. Lopez had all sorts of trouble with the Twins last season (0-3, 9.60 ERA) and we expect more of the same here. The icing on the cake for this match-up is that both bullpens have been used extensively already in this high-scoring series so, after these two starters get knocked out early (likely), each pen will be put in a tough spot as this game goes on. Plus the White Sox really got to the Twins pen yesterday and Minny gave the Chicago pen trouble in Friday's game. Bet the OVER in Chicago White Sox in early afternoon action Sunday.
|
10-09-19 |
Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 7 |
Top |
7-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday at 8:37 PM ET
It is hard to fathom any scenario that involves many runs being scored in this match-up. Game 5 first round post-season elimination game, all bullpen arms rested and at the ready thanks to yesterday's off day, and a pair of dominating starting pitchers on the mound. The Nationals are starting Stephen Strasburg and he has an incredible 0.64 ERA in his 5 post-season appearances (4 starts) in his career. The Dodgers are starting Walker Buehler and he has not allowed an earned run in his last 16 and 2 / 3 innings of post-season work. Buehler has held opponents to a .167 batting average in his 5 career post-season starts. Strasburg has held opponents to just 11 hits in 23 innings spanning his last 4 post-season appearances (3 starts). The under has cashed in 7 of the Nationals last 9 playoff games and, per our computer math model, that trend continues on Wednesday. We look for the under to improve to a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times that the Dodgers were in a playoff game facing elimination. Pitchers duel expected here! Bet the UNDER in LA Dodgers in evening action Wednesday
|
08-17-19 |
Mariners v. Blue Jays OVER 10 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 28 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 3:05 PM ET
Yesterday's game between these teams was 6-2 through 3 innings but miraculously did not go over the total of 10.5 as the game ended up a 7-3 Blue Jays win. Look for Saturday's game to feature more scoring throughout the game. The Mariners are going with a bullpen game here as Reggie McClain will be the starter. The concept of "bullpen games" was first, or at least mostly, employed by Tampa Bay. It made sense too because it worked. However, that is because the Rays are known for having a quality bullpen. Again this season the Rays are one of the best bullpens in MLB. As for the Mariners, they are one of the worst pens in the majors. That said, it doesn't work so well for them and this is particularly true when Seattle is up against a red hot offense. The Blue Jays have a .553 slugging percentage this month. That ranks them 3rd in the majors behind only the Yankees and Astros! As you can, Toronto is keeping pretty good company of late. The Mariners lineup has been a little quieter of late but this still a Seattle team whose .455 slugging percentage on the road this season ranks them 4th in the AL. The Mariners will take advantage of an inconsistent Trent Thornton. The Toronto right-hander is off a very strong start against the Yankees but he has a knack for following up quality starts with bad ones.. In fact, the last 3 times Thornton was off a start in which he has allowed 2 or less earned runs, he has been rocked all 3 times allowing a total of 16 earned runs in 3 starts which lasted a combined 8 and 1 / 3 innings.. Given these numbers and this distinct pattern with Thornton as well as the fact that McClain was pitching in the single A level of the minors this season, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is predicting a slug-fest at Rogers Centre Saturday afternoon. Bet the OVER in the Blue Jays game in afternoon action Saturday
|
08-10-19 |
Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 |
Top |
0-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, Saturday at 9:05 PM ET
Last night tempers erupted in this divisional match-up and the dugouts emptied onto the field right at the conclusion of the game. As a direct result, expect the hitters from both lineups to be "locked in" to the offerings of the pitchers in tonight's match-up. Without a doubt intensity is sky high and this is a pressure packed situation for two starting pitchers whom are unlikely to handle it well. The reason for that is that Alex Young is a rookie and this will be the first time a team is seeing him for a 2nd game. He came out of the bullpen for 2 and 1 / 3 innings against the Dodgers earlier this season. In his most recent road start Young faced a bad Marlins team and yet he gave up 8 hits in 6 innings while striking out only 2 batters. The Arizona southpaw faces a much tougher test here. The only team in the National League producing more runs in home games than the Dodgers is the Rockies. That said, consider the home venue that Colorado plays in compared to the one that LA calls home. The fact is that the Dodgers are arguably the best hitting team in the National League as imagine what their lineup would do if Coors Field was their home! As for the Diamondbacks, their .470 slugging percentage in road games this season does rank them #1 in the National League. They are facing Kenta Maeda and he is feeling the pressure as he knows his rotation spot could be surrendered to another hurler very soon. Part of the reason for this is that Maeda hasn't earned a win in any of his starts since mid-May! Maeda may not handle the intensity well in tonight's game and, in just 9 and 1 / 3 innings, Maeda has allowed 8 runs (5 earned) in his last two home starts versus the Diamondbacks. Arizona has pounded 3 homers in those 9 and 1 / 3 innings at Dodger Stadium. The over is 9-3-1 in Maeda's last 13 starts versus the Diamondbacks. Prior to last night's under, the over was 5-1 in Arizona's last 5 games and the Diamondbacks averaged 8.4 runs per game in those 5 games. The Dodgers, prior to last night's loss, were 8-1 in their last 9 games and had scored an average of 6.3 runs per game in those 8 victories. Considering all of the above, take advantage of the low total being offered in this one and expect a very entertaining game tonight as intensities are on the rise in this divisional rivalry. Bet the OVER in the Dodgers game in late evening action Saturday
|
07-25-19 |
Indians v. Royals OVER 10 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 38 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET
These lineups just faced these pitchers last week and that is a big edge as they see these starting pitchers again in their very next starts. Although Adam Plutko has enjoyed success against the Royals this season, both starts were at home. In fact, Plutko has had a very home-heavy schedule since he joined the rotation and that has certainly helped his results. Plutko entered this season with a 6.83 ERA on the road in his 8 appearances (5 starts) in his young career. In 2019, Plutko has logged 70% of his innings at home which has helped his overall success. On the road this season, just as in the past, the Indians right-hander has struggled. Opponents are hitting .323 against Plutko when he is away from home this year. He'll be facing a Royals team that has momentum on its side after a 2-0 series sweep over the Braves. Though Kansas City didn't hit well in the short series, they now return home where they went 6-1 in their most recent home-stand. The Royals scored an average of 7 runs per game on that home-stand. The Indians are also likely to score well tonight. Cleveland enters this series 15-4 after their 4-0 shutout win last night at Toronto. Their sticks have been hot during this stretch and that includes averaging 7.8 runs per game in their last 5 games against left-handed starters. Thursday the Indians face struggling lefty Mike Montgomery whom they just enjoyed great success against last week. Montgomery has a 6.83 ERA this season and opponents are hitting .347 against him this season. In 6 games (1 start) against the Indians in his career, the Royals southpaw has a 9.53 ERA. Behind Montgomery is a KC bullpen that ranks in the bottom third of the majors. The over is 7-2 in Cleveland's last 9 games against a left-handed starter. The over is 5-1 in Kansas City's last 6 home games against a right-handed starter. Combining all the above factors with a drop on this total from 10.5 to a 10 and we see huge value with the over at Kauffman Stadium and the wind expected to be blowing out toward left field. Bet the OVER in the Royals game in evening action Thursday
|
07-21-19 |
White Sox v. Rays OVER 7.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, Sunday at 1:10 PM ET
This total was already a short number when it opened up at an 8.5 and it has since dropped to a 7.5 which is offering phenomenal value with the over. Blake Snell gets the start for the Rays and he has great career numbers against the White Sox. However, especially in today's MLB, players change teams with such frequency that it is important to look at hitter on pitcher cumulative stats rather than just team stats. In this case, the White Sox have 6 players (whom all were starters in yesterday's game) that are a combined 13 for 30 (.433 batting average) with 3 homers against Snell. Those 6 players are Abreu, Garcia, Jay, McCann, Rondon, Sanchez. We look for Chicago to enjoy some success here at the plate against Snell. The Tampa Bay lefty will be opposed by rookie Dylan Cease of the White Sox. Cease, per scouts, has been said to have pitched better than his stats would indicate in his first two starts at the MLB level. However, it should also be noted that he faced two of the worst teams (Royals and Tigers) in the American League. Now Cease faces one of the top teams in the AL and, since the All-Star Break, the Rays are tied with the Astros for the most homers (19) in the American League. Cease does come in as a highly touted prospect but this was his first season above the AA level of the minors and, at AAA Charlotte he had a 4.48 ERA and opponents hit .284 against him. Those are certainly not dominating numbers at the minor league level. Tampa Bay's lineup will take advantage and bounce back after yesterday's disappointing low-scoring extra-innings loss. Chicago is 7-3 to the over this season after a one-run win. The over is 15-5 in Rays games when they are a home favorite of -200 or more. . Tampa Bay is also 7-2 to the over when they enter a game on a losing streak of 5 or more consecutive games. Bet the OVER in the Rays game in early afternoon action Sunday
|
07-18-19 |
Astros v. Angels OVER 10 |
Top |
6-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 32 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, Thursday at 9:05 PM ET
Mike Trout might be back in the lineup for the Angels tonight. Either way, this one has the makings of a very high-scoring game. The Angels only scored 2 runs in last night's loss but Los Angeles entered that game having won 5 straight games and having scored an average of 9 runs per game in their 6 prior games! The Astros put up 11 runs in last night's contest and Houston has now averaged scoring 7.5 runs per game in its last 4 games against the Angels. The Astros will be facing Matt Harvey. The right-hander recently returned to the rotation and the line score would indicate that he was much better in his first start back. However, Harvey gave up a lot of hard hit balls and he was very fortunate the damage wasn't worse. Also, the Astros have a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against him. Harvey has an 8.91 ERA in his 7 starts at Angel Stadium this season. As for the Astros Wade Miley, he has been very strong at home this season but has a very mediocre 4.50 ERA in his 11 road starts this season! Miley is facing a red hot Angels lineup and note that Los Angeles ranks 3rd in the American League for runs scored in home games on the season. LA can come up big here at the plate in this one but, the Astros are highly likely to hammer Harvey and this one sees plenty of runs scored as a result. The Angels are 6-3 to the over this season as an underdog of +150 or more. The Angels are 5-2 to the over in their last 7 games. Bet the OVER in the Angels game in late night action Thursday
|
07-14-19 |
White Sox v. A's OVER 9.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-106 |
7 h 58 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER: Chicago White Sox at Oakland A's, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
The White Sox are hitting. 271 against left-handed pitching this season which ranks them #3 out of 15 teams in the American League. Chicago will be facing Oakland's Brian Anderson in this one. The A's southpaw has struggled in afternoon games this season. In his 7 day game starts Anderson has been hit at a .324 clip and has a 6.09 ERA! His counterpart on the mound for the White Sox today is Reynaldo Lopez. The Chicago right-hander has been very consistent this season...consistently bad! Lopez has pledged to make adjustments and be better but he has shown no evidence of that. He is 1-4 with a 6.59 ERA on the road this season and opponents have hit .314 against him away from home. Lopez has managed a quality start only twice in his last eight outings! He has been hit hard in 5 of his last 6 road starts. He is facing a red hot Oakland team that has won 9 of its last 11 games and scored an average of 9.6 runs per game in those 9 victories. Considering that stat as well as the fact that the Anderson is also likely to struggle for the A's here, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is forecasting double digits in runs scored in this match-up. Oakland's over is 7-2 this season as a favorite of -175 to -250. This is the 15th Sunday game for the A's this season and so far only 4 of them have resulted in an under. That trend continues with another high-scoring Sunday afternoon game on tap here! Bet the OVER in the Athletics game in late afternoon action Sunday
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07-07-19 |
A's v. Mariners OVER 9.5 |
Top |
7-4 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 55 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Oakland A's at Seattle Mariners, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET
Daniel Mengden gets the start for the A's. He had a decent May after being called up from AAA Las Vegas but he has struggled since then. The Oakland right-hander has a 7.07 ERA in his last 3 appearances (2 starts). He only allowed 1 earned run in a recent start against the Mariners but he allowed 5 hits and walked 5 in just 4 innings of work so Mengden was certainly very fortunate. That was earlier this season. In prior seasons, Mengden is winless in 4 appearances (3 starts) against Seattle and he has a 5.89 ERA in those outings. You can see why the expectation is for him to struggle here against a potent Mariners lineup. Seattle is slated to use right-hander Matt Carasiti as an opener here. That makes sense as the #1 and #2 hitters in the A's lineup are right-handed sticks. However, Carasiti is likely to go just one inning at most and then he'll give way to Wade LeBlanc. Essentially LeBlanc is the starter even though he is not listed as such. The southpaw is expected to see most of the action here and he has been rocked by Oakland this season. In two appearances (one start) against the A's this season, LeBlanc has an 11.74 ERA and Oakland is hitting .378 against him this season! Behind LeBlanc is a Seattle bullpen that has a 5.07 ERA this season. That is the second worst mark in the American League. Prior to being held to 3 runs in yesterday's loss, the Athletics scored an average of 6.6 runs per game in their 7 prior games and they'll bounce back here. The Mariners have scored an average of 5.9 runs per game in their past 10 home games. Not surprisingly, our computer math model is forecasting a dozen runs in this match-up. Bet the OVER in the Mariners game in late afternoon action Sunday
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07-04-19 |
Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9.5 |
Top |
11-3 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 13 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET
It looks like Jose Quintana is off a great start at Cincinnati Saturday as the line score for him shows 0 earned runs in 6 innings. However, he gave up one hard hit ball after another after another...it was one of those days where the line drives simply were hit right at guys. Quintana was not fooling the hitters and the lefty entered that outing with a 6.75 ERA in his 6 prior outings. Now the southpaw faces a Pirates team that has been very hot at the plate. With their 6-5 win yesterday, Pittsburgh has won 12 of 17 games and the Pirates have scored an average of 6.3 runs per game in their past 21 games! Only 7 of the Pirates past 21 games (33%) have resulted in an under. Pittsburgh is 12-4 to the over this season in home games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the Pirates are 13-6 to the over this season in games against left-handed starters. Only 11 of the Cubs 33 games (33%) this season have resulted in an under when they are facing a team with a losing record. Pittsburgh starter Jordan Lyles has a 4.94 ERA in his day game starts this season. Also, he was off to a strong start this season but reality is setting in as he went winless with a 6.00 ERA in his 3 June starts. In 230 career games (128 starts) Lyles has a 5.15 ERA at the MLB level. In other words, his long-term numbers tell the full story! While Lyles got the better of the Cubs way back in early April, weather conditions then were much different than they are now. Also, Chicago has had just 5 unders in their past 15 games and the Cubs have scored an average of 5 runs per game during this stretch. Per our computer math model, this game is projected to finish with a dozen runs scored as the over moves to 13-7-1 this season in Cubs road games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs. The Cubs blew another save opportunity yesterday and Chicago and Pittsburgh both are in the bottom third of the save percentage rankings. The bullpens will be our friend in this game too! Bet the OVER in the Pirates game in late afternoon action Thursday
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06-29-19 |
Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5 |
Top |
6-0 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 26 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET
Yesterday's game was 6-3 in the top of the 7th but ended that way for a frustrating push (or loss) for those whom had the over in that one. Look for today's game to more than make up for that shortfall. It will be a very steamy afternoon at Great American Ball Park Saturday and day games like this in Cincinnati have a tendency to turn the ball park into a bandbox with plenty of big extra base hits including some long balls leaving the yard. The Reds Luis Castillo has some great numbers this season but walks are becoming an issue as he has struggled with command of his pitches in recent starts. He is struggling to throw his fastball for strikes and that can lead to free passes for the hitters as well as some mistake pitches that get crushed. The potent Cubs lineup can certainly make Castillo pay. The Reds right-hander has walked 11 in less than 10 innings over his last two starts and that includes an ugly outing at Miller Park last Saturday as another divisional foe, the Brewers, gave him plenty of trouble. The Cubs lineup will do the same here but Chicago's issue in this one is also on the mound. The Cubs start Jose Quintana in this one. The southpaw is 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA in his last 6 starts. Quintana is 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA in his last 3 starts against Cincinnati. Per our computer math model, this game is projected to finish with a dozen runs scored as the over moves to 5-2 in the last 7 starts made by Quintana. The over is 10-5-1 this season in Cubs road games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs. Bet the OVER in the Reds game in late afternoon action Saturday
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06-22-19 |
Padres v. Pirates OVER 9 |
Top |
3-6 |
Push |
0 |
10 h 20 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET
After yesterday's surprising pitchers duel, don't be surprised when you witness a much different type of game this afternoon at PNC Park. The Pirates will have Chris Archer on the mound for this one and he has been struggling badly. Archer has only one quality start in his last 9 appearances and he has compiled a 7.33 ERA during this very rough extended stretch. The Padres start Chris Paddack in this one. The San Diego right-hander is returning from a stint with Lake Elsinore in single-A ball as he worked on his repertoire of pitches and also tried to rest a tired arm. Paddack has good numbers on the season but his recent starts are quite telling. San Diego is 0-3 in his last 3 starts as he has compiled a 7.54 ERA in these outings. Also, he is facing a Pirates lineup that had averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their 9 contests prior to yesterday's low-scoring win. The Padres lineup also should do plenty of damage here. Not only will they take advantage of a struggling Archer, San Diego had scored an average of 8 runs per game in their 7 contests prior to yesterday's low-scoring loss. In Pirates home games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs, the over is 9-3 this season. San Diego was 12-5-1 to the over in the month of June before Friday's pitchers duel. Both teams bullpens have some unimpressive numbers too as the Padres have a bullpen ERA of 5.52 this season in road games while the Pirates bullpen ERA is 5.60 this season in home games. Bet the OVER in the Pirates game in late afternoon action Saturday
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06-19-19 |
Angels v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 |
Top |
11-6 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 42 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
After yesterday's pitchers duel, our computer math model is calling for a big game from both lineups in the Wednesday match-up. That forecast is not surprising when considering the pitching match-up here. The Angels are starting Andrew Heaney in this one. The LA southpaw has had limited action this season and the long-term numbers show a strong trend of struggling on the road. Entering this season, Heaney's past 3 seasons have seen him produce a 2-9 record with a 5.60 ERA in road starts. This will be Heaney's first ever start at the Rogers Centre. He has shown a propensity for struggling in his first start at a venue. The over is 6-2 this season in Wednesday games for the Angels. The over is 5-1-1 this season when the Blue Jays are a home dog in a money line range of +125 to +175. Toronto is starting Aaron Sanchez in this one. After a poor May, the thinking was that Sanchez would bounce back in June or, at least, that is what the Jays hoped for. However, the fact is that things have gone from bad to worse for the Jays right-hander. After going 0-4 with a 5.28 ERA in May, Sanchez is now 0-3 with a 10.20 ERA in the month of June. Now he faces a potent Angels lineup that has helped produce a 7-3 run for Los Angeles. In those 10 games LA has scored an average of 5.7 runs per game. The Blue Jays, prior to yesterday's poor effort at the plate, had scored an average of 6.8 runs per game in their last 6 games. Toronto will take advantage of Heaney's long-term road struggles and bounce back at the plate in this one but look for the Angels to score plenty as well with the poor recent form of Sanchez continuing for the Blue Jays. The result is a game that should see at least a dozen runs scored. Bet the OVER in the Blue Jays game in early evening action Wednesday
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06-15-19 |
Padres v. Rockies OVER 11 |
Top |
8-14 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 8 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET
The Padres have a .449 slugging percentage in road games this season which ranks them 3rd out of the 15 teams in the National League. The Rockies have a .460 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers this season and that ranks them 8th out of all 30 teams in the majors. Colorado should pound San Diego southpaw Eric Lauer in this one. The lefty has some strong recent numbers but pitching at Coors Field is always a challenge for pitchers and Lauer is no exception. Yesterday's game went 12 innings and featured 28 runs scored! Lauer enters this start already having ill feelings about this ballpark. He lasted just 3 innings in each of the two starts he has made at Coors Field in his career. Lauer's ERA in those two starts is an ugly 21.00 at Colorado. The over is 9-3 in San Diego's June games and the Padres have scored 5 or more runs in 8 of their last 11 games. The Rockies have averaged 7.6 runs per game over the first 5 games of this 6-game homestand. Colorado has allowed 10.7 runs per game in its last 3 home games. German Marquez gets the start for the Rockies. The Colorado right-hander has seen opponents knock him around for a better than .300 batting average in his home starts this season. Marquez has a 4.85 ERA in home starts last season and this season combined. The Padres bullpen has a 4.81 ERA on the road this season and the Rockies bullpen has a 5.05 ERA in home games this season. Marquez only allowed 2 earned runs when he faced San Diego last month but he was very fortunate as he allowed 10 hits in under 6 innings of work. Per our computer math model, he won't be so fortunate in the rematch with Lauer and the latter hurler gets knocked around also. The teams combined for 14 innings of bullpen work in yesterday's extra innings affair so both bullpens are a bit tapped out heading into this one! The over is 4-0-1 in Lauer's road starts and 5-2-1 in the 8 home starts Marquez has made this season. All signs pointing to another slugfest in this series Saturday! Bet the OVER in the Rockies game in evening action Saturday
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06-10-19 |
Cubs v. Rockies OVER 11 |
Top |
5-6 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 24 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies, Monday at 8:40 PM ET
The Cubs Yu Darvish had success against the Rockies last week but that was at home at Wrigley Field. Now the Chicago right-hander faces them on the road at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Prior to his successful start last week versus Colorado, Darvish was 0-3 with a 10.98 ERA in his 3 career starts versus the Rockies and that including an ugly outing at Coors Field. The Rockies are a different team when hitting at home and they are 9-1 in their last 10 home games. Colorado has scored an average of 7 runs per game in their last 10 games on their home field. The Cubs should also enjoy a big day at the plate here. Chicago pounded German Marquez last week. The Rockies right-hander has a 14.54 ERA in his last 2 starts against the Cubs. That includes last week at Wrigley Field and last season at Coors Field. No matter the venue, Marquez has a match-up issue when facing this tough Cubs lineup. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 starts Marquez has made at home. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 starts Darvish has made. The over is 18-10-1 this season in Cubs road games. Per our computer math model, a back and forth slug-fest is expected at Coors Field in this one. Bet the OVER in the Rockies game in evening action Monday
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06-04-19 |
Rockies v. Cubs OVER 10.5 |
Top |
3-6 |
Loss |
-116 |
10 h 52 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET
The Rockies are 11-2 their last 13 games and have averaged scoring 7 runs per game during this hot streak. In terms of consistency, Colorado has scored 4 or more runs in all 13 of those games! Temperatures today in Chicago will be near 80 and the winds will be blowing out toward left-center field at a strong clip. The set up is perfect for plenty of homers in this one. The last time the Cubs Kyle Hendricks faced the Rockies at Wrigley Field he allowed 3 homers in that start! Hendricks is off a strong start but it was in inter-league action. In his last two starts against National League foes he gave up 7 earned runs in 11 and 2 / 3 innings. With how hot the Rockies have been as well as the favorable hitting conditions for this one, there should be runs aplenty for the road team in this match-up. Additionally, the Cubs are set up well to match them run for run here. Colorado is starting Jeff Hoffman and he has a 7.20 ERA in his 3 starts this season. In the last two he allowed 3 home runs in a combined 10 innings of work. Chicago exploded for 8 runs in their win over the Angels yesterday at Wrigley Field and another big day at the plate is expected here per our computer math model. The Cubs have averaged 6.3 runs per game in their last 6 home games. None of those games resulted in an under as the over is 5-0-1 in those 6 games! Rockies games, when Colorado is off a win, are 19-10-1 to the over this season. The Cubs streak of overs in home games resumes on Tuesday night. Bet the OVER in the Cubs game in evening action Tuesday
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05-29-19 |
Indians v. Red Sox OVER 9 |
Top |
14-9 |
Win
|
101 |
9 h 33 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 6:10 PM ET
The Red Sox are starting Ryan Weber in this one. The 28 year old right-hander has spent most of his career in the minors. This is not a good match-up for him. Weber has shown that he struggles more against left-handed batters than right-handed sticks. He will see almost every single batter stepping in on the left-hand side in this one as the Indians are loaded with left-handed bats and switch-hitters. Weber is 2-5 with a 4.41 ERA in his 9 career starts at the MLB level. Cleveland erupted for 7 runs in yesterday's win and has already scored a dozen runs in the first two games of this series at Fenway Park. The Indians are starting Shane Bieber here and he has received a lot of fanfare with striking out 25 batters in his last two starts. However, both of those outings were at home and he also threw 111 pitches just to get through 5 innings in his most recent start. The last time Bieber pitched on the road he allowed 4 homers at Chicago against the White Sox. Now he faces a Red Sox team whose team batting average in home games ranks 2nd in the American League. Boston is known for being tough on opposing pitchers at Fenway Park and they also got to the Indians bullpen yesterday. This total is only a 9 (after opening at a 9.5) and that has made this an even better value play. The total is low because of Bieber's last two starts but Boston is likely to give him trouble here. As for Weber he truly is unproven at the MLB level as a starter and the Indians lineup presents a tough match-up with all the left-handed lumber. Last year at the AAA level in the minors Weber was hit at a .264 clip and this season in 5 starts at the AAA level opponents are hitting .271 against him. He had a good first start this season (last week) but it was against a bad Blue Jays team. The Indians have struggled at times at the plate this season but they have looked strong in this series and hold the match-up edges over Weber in this one. Rather cool evening at Fenway expected here but this total is far too low and our computer math model is calling for this one to fall within a range of 10 to 12 runs before all is said and done. The teams have already averaged 14.5 run per game in the first two games of this series. Bet the OVER in the Red Sox game in early evening action Wednesday
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05-16-19 |
Cubs v. Reds OVER 8.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 35 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET
This total is only an 8.5 because both Jose Quintana and Luis Castillo are off to strong starts to this season. The result is line value in a spot like this. Yesterday's game totaled 11 runs as there were 5 homers hit. With temperatures rising to the 80 degree mark in Cincinnati today and a light breeze blowing out toward left center field at Great American Ball Park, it will be another game here that gives this venue its well-deserved reputation as playing out like a "bandbox" in the right weather conditions. The fact remains that Great American Ball Park is one of the most hitter friendly venues in the majors and both of these lineups have plenty of experience against the division rival starting pitcher that each is facing today. The Cubs Quintana has a 6.32 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. He allowed 2 homers in his most recent start against the Reds. The last time the southpaw pitched at Cincinnati he got hammered for 4 earned runs on 9 hits in 5 frames! The Reds Castillo has a 5.79 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Cubs and has walked as many as he has struck out in those 3 outings. The fact is that the Chicago lineup has proven to be a tough one for Castillo in recent outings. The over is 5-1 in Reds home games this month and Cincinnati has scored an average of 7.3 runs per game in those half-dozen home games. The Cubs are 13-3 in their last 16 games thanks in part to their lineup scoring average of 5.4 runs per game during this stretch. The over is 13-5-1 in Chicago's road games this season and the over is 9-4-1 when they are off a loss and also 9-4-1 in games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. Our computer math model is forecasting double digits in runs here and we won't hesitate in taking advantage of this low total. Bet the OVER in the Reds game in early evening action Thursday
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