ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers, 8:05 PM ET - These lineups just faced these pitchers last week and both actually had a little success but the game still went over the total thanks to faulty bullpens. By the way, these are two of the worst bullpens in the majors thus far on the season.  The Rangers bullpen has a 5.54 ERA overall and the Angels bullpen has a 5.77 ERA in road games this season.  The key to the value here is both starting pitchers were fortunate they did not allow more runs in their meeting last week.  LA's Jose Quintana gave up quite a few hard hit balls for outs.  The Rangers Mike Foltneywicz allowed 3 homers but all were solo bombs.  Foltneywicz has given up an average of 2 homers per start in his 4 appearances this season.  The Angels Ohtani left yesterday's game with a blister injury but that impacted his pitching more than hitting and he should be back in the lineup today.  Also, Los Angeles has been given a boost with the return of Rendon to the lineup.  He did not hit well yesterday but is hitting .323 in 31 career at-bats versus Foltneywicz.  The Rangers right-hander had a rough spring training and has continued to labor in his regular season starts.  The Angels  Quintana has a 9.00 ERA this season and has walked 11 in 10 innings.  The over 7-2 in Angels last 9 games.  The over 4-1 in Rangers last 5 games.  The Angels have scored at least 4 runs in 7 of 9 games and Texas has scored at least 4 runs in 4 of 5 games.  This total sitting at an even 9 runs so plenty of value with getting at least to a 5-4 final quite likely in this one.   We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one!  Bet Over

#965/966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Baltimore vs Oakland, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET – Wind blowing in from left or at least left to right and is unlikely to help the hitters.  A lot of right-handed bats at the plate for this one and will be trying to pull directly into the wind against a pair of solid left-handed starters.  John Means has been pitching extremely well to begin this season.  He has 4 starts under his belt and is the ace of the staff with a 1.52 ERA.  Also, the Orioles bullpen which supports him has #6 ranked ERA in the majors with a 3.19 ERA on the season thus far.  As for Oakland, they certainly are not having pitching issues either.  That is why this team has won 13 games in a row!  There was one crazy 13-12 extra innings win in the stretch but in the other dozen games the A's have allowed only 2 runs per game on average!  The Orioles have a .377 slugging percentage against lefties to rank in the bottom third of the majors thus far this season.  As hot as Oakland has been they are hitting only .221 in day games this season and Means has been fantastic on the mound this year.  The Athletics have Jesus Luzardo on the mound.  He has pitched quite well in 3 of his 4 starts and his most recent was his best one yet.  Piling up strikeouts and he also limited hits in his most recent start plus the Orioles have no familiarity with him.  That should be an edge to the young southpaw and the Orioles struggles against lefties continue.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER

ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros, 4:10 PM ET - Both of these starting pitchers had a rough spring training.  Both starters have seen those tough times carry right into the regular season as well.  We are aware of the Mike Trout injury situation for the Angels but, even without him in the lineup yesterday, LA pounded out 13 hits in the extra innings loss.  Also, his likely replacement is Scott Schebler.  He is 3 for 6 with two homers in his career against Jake Odorizzi!  The Astros Odorizzi had a 15.75 ERA in spring training and has a 10.57 ERA so far in the regular season this year.  The Angels start Griffin Canning.  The Los Angeles right-hander had a 6.75 ERA in spring training and has a 5.68 ERA so far in the regular season this year.  Canning has a 6.35 ERA in his 3 career starts against the Astros with a 1.94 WHIP.  That means he allowed about 2 baserunners per inning which of course leads to trouble quickly.  Both these bullpens rank in the bottom half of the rankings for relievers ERA this season too.  The Angels are hitting .267 in road games this season which is the 2nd best mark in MLB!  The over is 4-0 in Astros L4 home games.  The over is 5-1 in Angels L6 games overall.  We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one!  Bet Over

#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Cleveland vs New York Yankees, Thursday at 6:10 PM ET – It will be a chilly evening in Cleveland and certainly NOT a hitter-friendly night.  The Yankees and Indians are hitting .205 and .209, respectively, so far this season.  Those are the two worst batting averages in the American League.  Yankees and Indians relievers, however, rank each team as two of the best in the majors with the Yankees bullpen #1 with a 2.28 ERA and the Indians bullpen #6 in the majors with a 3.00 ERA.  As for the starting pitchers in this one Aaron Civale is 3-0 with a 2.18 ERA for Cleveland this season.  For New York, Domingo German just returned from the Yankees training site because he had some early season struggles.  But his arm appears fine and he had great numbers in spring training.  This is still the same hard thrower that went 18-4 and held hitters to a .228 batting average in the last full season two years ago in 2019.  The Indians have played 16 games this season and the Yankees have played 17 games and the teams have each gone over the total in only 6 of their respective games.  The Yanks have scored an average of just 2.6 runs their past 8 games.  The Indians have scored an average of only 3.3 runs per game their past 9 games.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER.

#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Kansas City vs Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:10 PM ET – Josh Fleming gets the start for the Rays and he was born in Missouri.  This road trip to Kansas City is a special one for him and he will have a lot of supporters in the stands for this one.  The Tampa Bay southpaw, now in his 2nd season in the majors, is 5-1 with a 2.65 ERA in 8 career appearances, 6 of which were starts.  He faces a Royals team that has decent overall season numbers at the plate but that is because those stats are skewed by their first two games this season when they scored 25 runs.  Since then, KC has averaged scoring only 3 runs per game its past 12 games.  The Royals, not including extra innings, have been held to 3 or less runs in 10 of those 12 games!  Unsurprisingly, given those numbers, Kansas City is on an under run that has seen the under cash in 9 of 11 games!  The Rays, on the other hand, have been trending over the total but this is atypical of Tampa Bay baseball and there should be a regression to the mean.  The way the Royals Danny Duffy is throwing, that regression should include this game staying under the total.  Duffy is 2-0 with an 0.75 ERA and has fanned 11 in 12 innings this season.  Though the Rays have trended over this season, yesterday's game did stay under the total and was the 7th time in 9 games in which Tampa Bay was held to 4 or less runs.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* OVER: Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners, 4:10 PM ET - Entering Saturday's match-up between these teams, each of the Mariners last 3 home games were overs and the Astros were on an overall 3-0 run to the over. Houston, entering Saturday's game, had allowed 6 or more runs in 6 straight games! Seattle, entering the Saturday match-up, had allowed 6.3 runs per game in home games this season. The point is, regardless of the outcome of Saturday night's game, both teams are trending the way we would like to see for an over. What makes this one absolutely a must play for us is the pitching match-up as both of these starters have been struggling. Jake Odorizzi struggled in spring training and then got hammered in his only regular season start thus far as the Tigers hit him hard including 3 homers in just 3 and 1 / 3 innings. Odorizzi had a 6.59 ERA in limited action, 4 starts, last season and just does not seem to have his confidence on the mound like we saw in 2019 and prior seasons. He is not the same pitcher he was. Speaking of struggling, Nick Margevicius gets the start for the Mariners here. The Seattle southpaw is 4-10 with a 5.94 ERA at the MLB level and is already struggling (7.04 ERA) this season in his 3 games (1 start). Houston has been a top 5 hitting team this season for batting average and will get to Margevicius early and often. The Mariners have been a top 5 hitting team in day games for batting average this season and, again, Odorizzi continues to be very hittable as we noted above. This one has the makings of plenty of runs early and the bullpens have been decent early this season but were not projected to be a strength for either one of these teams coming into the season. There will be a regression to the mean in that regard. Look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over

ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Detroit Tigers @ Oakland A's, 9:40 PM ET - The Tigers are scoring better than most expected early this season.  Yesterday's game was an 8-4 loss for Detroit at Oakland but it was the 3rd straight over in Tigers games.  Detroit has scored an average of 6 runs a game in its last 4 games.  The Tigers have a .416 slugging percentage on the season which ranks 6th in the majors.  Though the A's have poor overall numbers offensively this season, they are absolutely trending the right direction.  The over is 4-0 in Oakland's last 4 games and the Athletics are truly in the zone right now as they have won 5 straight games thanks in large part to a scoring average of 7.4 runs during the streak.  Each of these teams have bullpens that rank near the bottom of the majors for relievers ERA early this season and that is an issue here too because each of the starters have an ERA above 8.00 early this season.  Frankie Montas struggled badly in his only home start this season and Jose Urena has had issues in both his starts this season.  Each of the last two years Urena has finished the season with an ERA above 5.00 so this might be his last start in the rotation for now if things don't turn around.  Spencer Turnbull is likely back soon and Urena would be the odd man out.  While he is still out there we are going to take advantage of his turn in the rotation and look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one!  Bet Over

#965/966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET – The Indians were no-hit by the White Sox yesterday which means the Chicago bullpen has fresh arms for this one.  That is good news for the White Sox and also there are no issues with a Cleveland bullpen that has been solid early this season with a 2.76 ERA.  Neither bullpen may be needed much in this one anyway!  Chicago's Lance Lynn allowed 3 earned runs or less in 11 of his 13 starts last season and he enters this start off a complete game shutout of the Royals in which he fanned 11 batters!  Lynn should have no trouble with an Indians team that is again one of the worst hitting teams in the majors early this season.  What is a surprise is that the slugging White Sox are also struggling with power and their slugging percentage is in the bottom third of the majors so far.  Facing Aaron Civale will not help as he has been spectacular early this season with a 2-0 record, 2.45 ERA and holding hitters to a .111 batting average.  Adding to the value here is that it is a chilly mid-April afternoon in Chicago and certainly it is not yet hitting weather here in the Midwest!  The result, based on all of the above is a well-pitched affair in this one in which the hurlers dominate.  We expect this one to get to no more than 5 or 6 runs at best.  The White Sox had 4 straight unders before yesterday's under and the Indians had seen 8 of their 10 games stay under the total before yesterday's game went over the total despite them being no-hit.  Take the UNDER.

#905/906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Atlanta vs Miami, Monday at 7:20 PM ET – The Braves are off a tough loss last night to the Phillies.  It was a very entertaining game for the fans but likely a draining one for the teams and especially for an Atlanta team that felt they lost the game on a questionable safe call at the plate in the 9th inning.  Now the Phillies leave town and the Braves welcome the Marlins to Atlanta.  Could the Braves be a little flat at the plate after last night's game?  Absolutely but, not only that, they would have their hands full in a normal situation too when it comes to having to face Sandy Alcantara.  The Marlins staff ace has allowed just 6 hits while striking out 17 in 12 innings pitched his first two starts.  Alcantara will be seeking revenge for a post-season loss in Atlanta in October.  Looking at the two most recent regular season starts for Alcantara against the Braves he has allowed only 4 hits in 14 and 2 / 3 innings.  The Braves are hitting only .214 this season and Alcantara will be very careful with red-hot Acuna and power-hitting Freeman.  The latter of those two is hitting only .167 and really, other than Acuna, the Braves hitters are struggling.  Travis d'Arnaud the lone other hitter that is even off to a respectable start at .267 thus far.  As for the Marlins, their team is also struggling at the plate as they are hitting only .215 and they have a paltry .315 slugging percentage.  The Braves bullpen has been one of the best in the league thus far with a 2.08 ERA and they will be supporting a starter, Huascar Ynoa, who had a fantastic first start this season.  Ynoa went 5 scoreless innings and struck out 5 while allowing only 2 hits.  The Marlins have scored 24 runs in their 8 games this season but 12 runs came in 1 game.  In other 7 games the Marlins have averaged scoring only 1.7 runs per game.  Look for Miami's struggles at the plate continue here but we also expect Alcantara, who absolutely appears to be on top of his game right now, to be super sharp and shut down the Braves in this one.  The result is a well-pitched affair in this one in which the hurlers dominate.  We expect this one to get to no more than 6 or 7 runs at best.  Take the UNDER.

ASA top play 10* on OVER: Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 4:10 PM ET - The over is now 7-1 in Reds games this season. Cincinnati leads the majors with a .312 batting average and .567 slugging percentage. The Reds lost 8 to 3 here yesterday but that was the first time this season they did not score at least 5 runs in a game. Cincinnati did have 12 hits in yesterday's loss and today they'll get their big runs again. They face Luke Weaver and he allowed 3 homers in his first start this season. One could chalk that up to pitching at Coors Field but in this case it truly is really not just that. Weaver has regressed as this is a guy who went 1-9 with a 6.58 ERA last season and now he faces the #1 hitting team in the league thus far this season. The Diamondbacks do not have the impressive hitting stats that the Reds do this season but keep in mind, Arizona is known for hitting better at home in comparison with the road. Their two series this year were on the road and now since coming back home they have scored 13 runs in two games and pounded out 10 hits yesterday. The Diamondbacks will face Cincinnati's Jose De Leon. Though he did have a very strong first start to open the season he faced a Pirates team that most expect to be the worst team in the league this season and he was at home. De Leon has a 7.79 ERA in his MLB career and the last time he was a starter was 2016 and he compiled a 6.35 ERA in his 4 starts. Both starting pitchers are likely to get rocked here and the Reds bullpen has a 5.29 ERA so far this season. The Diamondbacks pen has been better but they now face the hottest hitting team in baseball a 3rd straight day. Look for plenty of scoring throughout this one as the over moves to 8-1 in Reds games on the season! Bet Over

ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants, 4:35 PM ET - The weather will be cool at Oracle Park in San Francisco by the bay but the wind is expected to be blowing out to center field at least 20 mph in this one.  Certainly this could help lift a few balls out of the yard if the pitchers make some mistakes and certainly we could see that in this one.  As for the starters here, Austin Gomber had a very rough season opener and he has made only 5 starts at the MLB level since the end of the 2018 season.  The Rockies southpaw is still a bit unproven as a starter and faces a big challenge here with a road start against a team making its home opener.  Gomber walked 7 in just 3 and 1 / 3 innings in his season opening start.  The Giants have not been hitting the ball well for average early this season but do have 11 homers in 6 games and Gomber is having trouble with his location and now wanting to avoid walking too many.  That said, you know what happens with mistake pitches over the plate and San Francisco will make him pay.  The Giants start Johnny Cueto here.  The veteran right-hander had a rough spring with a 9.82 ERA in his 3 starts.  This seemed to carry into his shaky season opener as well as he was not overly impressive against the Mariners.  A number of Rockies hitters have had good success against Cueto and you might think that is only due to seeing him at Coors Field.  But he just faced Colorado here at Oracle Park last September and got rocked for 7 earned runs in 4 and 1 / 3 innings.  The total set on this game by oddsmakers has been bouncing around but after opening at 8.5 went as high as a 9 and then settled in at a 8.  We love the value here after the line move in particular and will not hesitate to get involved here.  Look for both teams to hit the ball well on Friday in the series opener of this 3-game set.  Bet Over

#907/908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – St Louis vs Milwaukee, Thursday at 4:15 PM ET – The Cardinals and Brewers have both struggled at the plate early this season.  St Louis is off a 7-0 win but had averaged scoring just 3 runs per game in 3 games prior to yesterday's big victory at Miami.  The Cards are hitting only .206 on the season and the Brewers have been even worse as they are hitting only .171 on the season.  Milwaukee has scored an average of only 2.6 runs per game their last 5 games.  Each team has been getting solid pitching recently as well.  Adam Wainwright gets the start for the Cardinals in their home opener today.  Though he got roughed up in the season opener he looked excellent in spring training and is a 39 year old veteran who knows how to adjust after a rare tough outing.  Wainwright not only dominated in spring training, he is known for being great in day game action.  Wainwright went 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and .134 BAA in day games last season.  The year before that it was 6-1, 1.61, and .210 for more excellence under the sun in 2019.  Wainwright also is known for pitching great at home where he has gone a combined 11-6 the past two seasons with an ERA under the 3.00 mark.  As a result, the Brewers run-scoring woes should continue here and the Cardinals bullpen is fresh and has fared well in recent games.  The Cardinals bats are also likely to be stifled here as the Brewers have been getting great pitching and this includes from Corbin Burnes.  The righty was a hard-luck loser in his first start as he struck out 11 in 6 and 1 / 3 innings and allowed just 1 hit in the outing.  That is a tough loss for sure but the Brewers could give him no run support and that is likely to again be an issue here.  Look for another strong start from him as Burnes went 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA and a .174 BAA last season as he returned to the form of his rookie season of 2018 when he went 7-0 with a 2.61 ERA and a .199 BAA.  Burnes was fantastic this spring too and carried that right into his dominating first start this season as well.  We expect this one to get to no more than 5 or 6 runs at best.  Take the UNDER.

#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Under 8 Runs – Washington vs Atlanta, Tuesday at 4 PM ET – The Braves are starting Drew Smyly in this one and he wrapped up last season striking out 38 over his final 22 innings.  When he is "on" he is a crafty lefty and he should hold a couple key edges here.  One is that he has spent most of his career in the American League so the Nationals have very little experience against him.  Another reason the Washington hitters will be at a disadvantage in this one is that the covid protocols delayed their season up to this point.  So no game action since spring training ended over a week ago.  Essentially the Nats were handed an unwanted week off right at the beginning of the new season. The pitchers are set to dominate in this one because Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Nationals.  He piled up 20 strikeouts and held batters to a .180 batting average in his spring training starts as he compiled 13.2 innings.  Scherzer has allowed 2 earned runs or less in his first start of a year in 6 of the last 7 seasons.  In fact, in those 6 starts he has allowed a total of only 6 earned runs or an average of 1 per game.  Considering one of the Braves strengths this season is the bullpen and the fact that the Nationals have solid late-inning arms in the bullpen and Scherzer can work deep into this game, there is likely to be very little scoring in this one.  The Nats bats haven't seen game action in over a week and the Braves bats were stifled in their season opening series.  Atlanta was held to just 3 runs total in their 3-game season opening series at Philly.  The average score of the 3 games was Phillies 3, Braves 1 and we expect this one to get to no more than 5 or 6 runs at best.  Take the UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 11.5 Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies, 3:10 PM ET - These teams have combined for 41 runs on 69 hits so far in this series.  That is an average of nearly 14 runs per game on 23 hits per game.  On a warm afternoon in Denver with high temperatures expected near 80 degrees we expect the bats to stay hot in this one.  Neither team has been held below 5 runs in any of the 3 games thus far in the series.  If that situation remains the same, the worst we can do here is a 6-5 final which was indeed the final score of yesterday's game which stayed just under the total of 11.5 runs.  However, we absolutely expect much more than that here as both bullpens have already had plenty of work in this series with all the runs being scored thus far in this series and this now being a 4th game in a 4 day situation for each bullpen to contend with.  As for the starters here, Austin Gomber faces the defending World Series Champs and he has made only 4 starts at the MLB level since the end of the 2018 season.  The Rockies southpaw is still a bit unproven as a starter and faces a big challenge here with a day game start on a warm afternoon at Coors Field against one of the toughest lineups in baseball.  The Dodgers start Julio Urias here and he had a 5.40 ERA vs the Rockies last season, a 4.82 ERA in Coors Fields outings in 2019, and prior to that made a start here in 2017 and allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings.  In his lone appearance at Coors Field the year before, his rookie season of 2016, Urias allowed 3 earned runs in 3 innings. The fact is that, like most pitchers, Urias stuff just doesn't have the same action in the thin air of Coors Field that it has in other venues.  Look for both teams to continue to hit the ball well on Sunday in the series finale of this 4-game set.  Bet Over

NOTE: We are comfortable with this play regardless of the starting pitchers announced.ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves versus Los Angeles Dodgers, Friday at 9:08 PM ET

The last 3 games between these teams have all flown over the total and have averaged 15 runs.  Our computer math model is forecasting another game that features double digits in runs scored.  This is regardless of the pitching match-up.  Keep in mind a ton of runs have been scored against the relievers, not the starters, in recent games.  That said we like the over here despite the fact that the Braves starting pitcher has not yet been announced at the time of this write-up while the Dodgers are expected to go with Dustin May.  Note that May has made 3 post-season appearances this year, including 1 against the Braves, but has pitched only 8 innings in his 5 post-season appearances the past two seasons combined.  That includes 1 start.  May is unlikely to pitch deep into this game and he is facing a Braves team that has averaged scoring 7.7 runs per game in its 3 wins in this series.  By the way the Dodgers had scored 22 runs in Game 2 and 3 combined and will bounce back here at the plate after a poor effort (2 runs) in Game 4.  Our computer math modeling shows high probability for this one getting to a dozen runs scored as each bullpen has shown some susceptibility in recent games and these are two very potent lineups.  Bet the OVER in the Braves game in late night action Friday. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Houston Astros versus Oakland A's, Wednesday at 3:35 PM ET

Yesterday's game was 5-2 through the half-way point of the game but then stalled out with no more runs scored.  Considering Wednesday's pitching match-up, we like the odds that this one pushes to a higher double-digit total in runs like what we saw in Game 1 of this series.  That game totaled 15 runs and was over the total by the top of the 6th inning.  Consider that in this match-up there is a ton of pressure on a young starting pitcher for the A's.  It is Jesus Luzardo making the start and the rookie southpaw struggled in his outing against the White Sox in the divisional series.  If he thought that was pressure-packed, how about now facing an Astros team that is loaded with post-season experience?  Per our computer math models, this one does not end well for Luzardo.  The good news for Oakland however is that Astros pitcher Jose Urquidy is also projected to struggle here.  He has had some success in the post-season in limited action but Urquidy faces an A's team that had scored at least 5 runs in 3 straight games prior to yesterday's 5-2 loss.  Also, the last 4 times the Athletics have entered a game off 2 or more consecutive losses, they have gone 4-0 and scored an average of 7.3 runs per game.  Oakland's lineup responds here but their own pitching struggles and that sends this one into double digits in runs scored.  Bet the OVER in the Astros game in afternoon action Wednesday. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Oakland Athletics versus Houston Astros, Monday at 4:07 PM ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA

Not only did A's starter Chris Bassitt go 3-0 with an 0.34 ERA in his four September starts, he also dominated the Astros the two times he faced them on the West Coast. Although this game is not in Oakland like those two outings were - it is a neutral site series in LA at Dodgers Stadium - the location still favors the Athletics. Also, the Astros offense had a down season and finished 20th in the majors for team batting average while the A's were even worse and finished 25th in the majors. Runs will be at a premium in this one as Oakland faces Lance McCullers in Game One. The Houston right-hander struck out 24 in 17 and 2 / 3 innings over his final 3 starts of the regular season and did not allow an earned run in any of those 3 outings. Also, in his lone outing against Oakland this season, McCullers held the Athletics to just 1 earned run in 6 innings. More of the same on tap here this afternoon per our computer math model. Bet the UNDER in the A's game in afternoon action Monday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays, Tuesday at 5 PM ET

There is a unique element in this series that is not present in any of the other series involving the 16 teams that have made the post-season.  With the unique scheduling element this season the only opponents that teams faced in their own league were in their own division.  Out of all 8 playoff series to begin the post-season this is the only one that pits divisional foes.  We feel that will lead to more offense in this one because these teams played 60 games this season and 10 were against each other.  They know the other teams bullpens and, in the case of Game 1, we like the odds of both starters getting a little roughed up too!  The Blue Jays are starting Matt Shoemaker and he made only 6 starts this season and half of those were against the Rays!  In his last two starts against Tampa Bay, Shoemaker allowed 5 earned runs in 9 innings and the damage could have been even worse as the Rays hit 3 homers against him in those 9 innings!  Tampa Bay starter Blake Snell is a  great pitcher but there is reason to believe he could struggle a bit here against this Blue Jays team loaded with dangerous hitters.  Toronto will be facing Snell for the 3rd time in 2 months and getting extra looks at a hurler tends to favor the hitters.  Additionally, Snell struggled in 2 of his 4 September starts.  Also, in his last 3 starts at home, the Rays southpaw gave up 7 runs (6 earned) on 15 hits (including a pair of homers) and walked 6 in 16 innings.  Those aren't horrible numbers but they aren't great either.  With a low total of 7.5 runs here, our computer math model indicates strong value on the over as the projection is closer to the 9 to 10 run range in this one (average of 9.5 projected here per the modeling).  We'll go with the over here and like the unique situation in this match-up favoring the hitters in comparison with the other series.  Bet the OVER in the Rays game in early evening action Tuesday. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Miami Marlins @ New York Yankees, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET

Final day of the regular season and one always has to exercise caution in situations like this in terms of lineups.  In this case, there is reason to believe that both lineups will be solid.  The Marlins rested some regulars yesterday and, after that 11-4 loss, would like to win today to have positive momentum heading into the playoffs plus to finish the regular season with a winning record.  As for the Yankees, they should also be playing all their regulars today as they are still hoping to secure the #5 seed in the post-season.  The Yankees rolled to an 11-4 win yesterday and all 11 runs came against the Marlins bullpen.  That is bad news for Miami's pitching staff today because Jose Urena (0-3, 6.00 ERA) is only expected to go 2 to 3 innings in this one so the Marlins pen will be exposed again.  The Yankees have been knocking the cover off the ball in home games in recent weeks and that continues here.  New York will need to score a lot too because Yankees starter  Clarke Schmidt is a rookie with a 7.71 ERA at the MLB level.  He has already had command issues in his limited MLB action as he has walked 3 and hit a batter for 4 "free passes" in just 2 and 1 / 3 innings.  This is a tough spot for Schmidt and the Marlins will take advantage.  At the same time, in terms of bullpen usage, you know the Yankees would be wise to save their best arms for the upcoming playoff action.  As a result, this one should soar over the total and our computer math model analytics are pointing strongly in that direction for this match-up.  Bet the OVER in the Yankees game in afternoon action Sunday. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET

The wind will be blowing out toward left field quite strongly for this one. That is bad news for Cubs southpaw Jon Lester. Though he has good numbers recently he has been quite fortunate in those starts and he now faces a White Sox team that has a .527 slugging percentage versus left-handed hurlers this season. That is good for the #1 spot in the majors and our computer math modeling projects a huge game at the plate for the White Sox in this one. The Cubs should also enjoy a big game at the plate too as they face Dane Dunning. The White Sox right-hander is a rookie and still enduring some growing pains as a 25-year old hurler at the MLB level. Dunning allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings in his most recent start which was against the Indians. Now Dunning faces a Cubs team that has hit 58 homers against right-handed pitching this season. That ranks them 5th in the National League and Dunning has allowed homers in each of his last two starts. The Cubs exploded for 10 runs in yesterday's win and have scored an average of 9 runs per game in their last 3 road wins. Look for the White Sox bats to bounce back big however after being shut out yesterday. The White Sox had won 15 of their last 17 home games prior to yesterday's ugly home loss. In those 17 games, the White Sox scored an average of 6.2 runs per game! Bet the OVER in the White Sox game in early evening action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays, Friday at 6:37 PM ET

The Blue Jays clinched a playoff spot with a win last night but they can still improve their playoff positioning so we expect their normal lineup tonight against an Orioles team that has been relegated to playing the role of spoiler.  However, when you don't have playoff pressure on you it oftentimes brings out the best in a lineup and Baltimore erupted for 13 runs in their win at Boston last night.  The Blue Jays have been playing their home games in Buffalo this season and Sahlen Field has played out as a very hitter friendly ballpark.  It will be another mild evening in upstate NY tonight and the bats should rule in this one after a rare low-scoring game here last night (4-1) when the Jays hosted the Yankees.  This total opened up at a 10 and has moved down to a 9.5 which has led to even more line value with the over in this one.  We are not really concerned with whom the starting pitchers are in this match-up as we do expect to see plenty of bullpen from each team in this one.  But the Orioles slated starter is Jorge Lopez and he is facing a surging Blue Jays team that enters this game having won 4 of 5 games and scoring an average of 7.2 runs per game in those contests.  Lopez has an 8.18 ERA in his 4 road appearances this season.  The Blue Jays are starting Taijuan Walker and he is off a strong start but it came against a quickly fading Phillies team.  Prior to that outing Walker was hit hard in his prior start and he had major issues with command of his pitches in the start that preceded that one.  He has a low ERA but has not pitched as well at that ERA would indicate.  Just recently Walker got rocked by the Yankees but was only charged with 1 earned run.  The Orioles faced him about 4 weeks ago and the 2nd look likely improves the results especially after last night's blowout win at Fenway Park.  This one has the makings of a slugfest at Sahlen Field in Buffalo, NY.  Bet the OVER in the Blue Jays game in early evening action Friday. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays, Thursday at 6:37 PM ET

The Blue Jays can clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight.  The Yankees are still battling for possible home field edge in their first round playoff series so they are motivated too.  After getting blasted last night by a score of 14-1, look for the Yankees to respond here.  They made 4 errors in last night's game plus loaded the bases with nobody out in the top of the 5th but failed to score!  That was when the game was still 5-1 and well within reach.  The Blue Jays have been playing their home games in Buffalo this season and Sahlen Field has played out as a very hitter friendly ballpark.  It will be another mild evening in upstate NY tonight and the bats should again rule in this one.  This total opened up at a 10 and has moved down to a 9.5 which has led to even more line value with the over in this one.  8 of the Yankees last 9 games have totaled 11 or more runs.  In fact, those 9 games have averaged a total of 14.8 runs per game and we would not be surprised to see this one get into the range of 15 runs as well.  The last time the Yankees Jordan Montgomery faced the Blue Jays he also was opposed by Toronto's Hyun Jin Ryu.  That game ended up a 12-7 Jays win.  Ryu got rocked in that one and he is 0-2 with an 8.80 ERA in his 3 career starts against the Yankees.  Montgomery also got rocked in that game and he has a 6.00 ERA in his 8 night starts this season.  Also, the Yankees southpaw is 0-1 with an 8.25 ERA in his road starts this season.  He is facing a surging Blue Jays team that hit him well earlier this month plus enters this game having won 3 of 4 games and scoring an average of 8 runs per game in those contests.  This one has the makings of another slugfest at Sahlen Field in Buffalo, NY.  Bet the OVER in Toronto in early evening action Thursday. 

ASA PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET

The Pirates start Trevor Williams in this one.  He is 1-8 with a 6.70 ERA.  Those numbers are bad enough but what is also concerning for Williams is that he is trending the wrong direction.  In his last 5 starts he has a 9.59 ERA and has allowed 11 homers in the 25 and 2 / 3 innings spanning those 5 outings.  The Pirates have lost 9 of his last 10 starts and, per our computer math model, he will get pounded here.  What has led to line value with this total is that recent games have stayed under the total involving these teams and Kyle Hendricks is on the mound for the Cubs.  Those factors resulted in this total opening up at 8 runs which is far too low in our opinion.  The Cubs Hendricks is a different pitcher on the road compared to at home.  While he has dominated at Wrigley Field this season, Hendricks is just 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA in road outings and opponents have hit .295 against him away from home. The Pirates did see him in his first start this month and that could also help the Pittsburgh bats here.  The Pirates have not been scoring a lot of runs lately but they could surprise at home against the Cubs here with some extra momentum after yesterday's 3-2 win.  Chicago was 7-3 in their last 10 prior to yesterday's loss and scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in those 7 wins.  They should have no trouble with the offerings of Williams here and we're taking advantage of the low total in this one.  Bet the OVER in Pittsburgh in early evening action Wednesday. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET

Yesterday's game saw the Marlins score 3 in the top of the first only to see the Braves answer with 4 in the bottom of the first.  7 runs after just 1 inning.  Easy over, right?  Nope.  The game stalled out, for the most part, after that early surge and it ended up not going over the total as Atlanta went on to a 5-4 win.  That sets this one up nicely as it keeps this match-up off the "radar screen" of people who play streaks with totals in MLB.  The fact is the Braves are one of the top hitting teams in the majors and the pitching match-up Tuesday sets this one up nicely to be a slugfest.  Jose Urena, Miami's starting pitcher tonight, is 2-8 with a 6.55 ERA in his career against the Braves.  Also, Urena just faced Atlanta 2 weeks ago and struggled in that outing.  He is now a combined 4-12 with a 5.33 ERA the past two seasons combined.  He is just getting going this year as he only returned to the rotation earlier this month but in his two starts against NL East teams (lineups familiar with him) he allowed 9 runs (8 earned) in 9 and 1 / 3 innings.  The Braves start Bryse Wilson here.  He has only made 13 appearances (5 starts) at the MLB level and the results are not impressive.  Wilson has a 7.01 ERA and opponents have hit .319 against at the MLB level.  The Marlins just saw him for 4 innings earlier this month and though Wilson survived it he was pitching in and out of jams.  More of the same expected here per our computer math model but this time the Marlins do more damage at the plate.  With both starters hit hard yesterday, each team used a lot of bullpen in yesterday's game which also helps the cause in terms of some potential bullpen struggles in the forecast today after these starters each make an early exit!  Bet the OVER in Atlanta in early evening action Tuesday. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers, Friday at 7:05 PM ET

Chilly weather in Detroit this evening.  That is driving this total lower.  However, the wind actually will be blowing out to right field as a result of the cooler conditions and we view this as a line value opportunity with the total dropping to an 8.5 even though it may not be a surprise to see both starting pitchers get roughed up here.  The Indians start Zach Plesac in this one.  He is having a great season but is off a rough road start in which he allowed 3 homers.  He has now given up 6 homers in his 26 innings on the road this season.  While he has dominated at home this season, Plesac has a tendency to make more mistake pitches on the road and the Tigers are 7-4 in their last 11 home games and scored an average of 6.1 runs per game in those 7 wins.  The Tigers start Michael Fulmer here and he is having a very rough season.  We expect the Indians to do plenty of damage at the plate in this one.  Fulmer is winless in NINE starts this season and has a 9.27 ERA with opponents hitting .378 against him on the year!  He has allowed 9 earned runs in 5 innings spanning his last two starts.  Fulmer faced the Indians in back to back starts in August and neither went well as he was tattooed for 8 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work.  Per our computer math model, more of the same is expected here as Cleveland enters this game 13-7 in their last 20 road games and scoring an average of 5.4 runs per game.  In games at Detroit, the Indians have scored an average of 7.8 runs per game in 4 road games.  The Tigers bullpen is one of the worst in the majors while the Cleveland bullpen, though great overall this season, has had some struggles over the past week and a half.  Bet the OVER in Detroit in early evening action Friday. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

Our information below includes Chase Anderson as the starter. Even though Julian Merryweather is now expected to get the start, he is only working as an opener. The expectation is that Anderson is still going to get the bulk of the workload in this one. By the way, Merryweather has averaged less than 2 innings per outing. Also, for what it is worth, he has given up 4 earned runs on 7 hits in less than 5 innings of work spanning his last 3 outings. As you can see, Merryweather is unlikely to go unscathed here and then Anderson comes in and gets roughed up. Here is the original write-up: They Yankees suddenly are one of the hottest lineups in baseball. New York has won 7 straight games and has averaged scoring 8.7 runs per game during this hot streak. That is even with two of those 7 wins being 7-inning games (they were part of a double-header). Certainly the Yankees bats should stay hot here as they have been crushing the Blue Jays bullpen in recent meetings and could get into that pen early tonight. That's because the Jays starting pitcher, Chase Anderson, has averaged less than 4 innings per appearance in his 7 starts this season. Anderson has a 13.50 ERA in his two starts this month and facing a red hot Yankees lineup is unlikely to help him get back on track! The Blue Jays also should contribute well to this total. Toronto has averaged a respectable 5.3 runs per game their last 10 games. The Jays will face Masahiro Tanaka in this one and he has been great in his road starts this season but actually has a 4.57 ERA in his 5 home starts on the year. The Jays have some hitters who have given Tanaka some trouble through the years and have plenty of familiarity with him. 7 of the Blue Jays last 10 games have totaled 10 or more runs and, per our computer math model, this one reaches into the double digits in runs as well. Bet the OVER in New York Yankees in early evening action Thursday.

ASA MLB TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Colorado Rockies versus Oakland A's, Wednesday at 3:10 PM ET

Last night's game was an unusually low-scoring game by Coors Field standards.  Based on this pitching match-up, the teams are likely to make up for it this afternoon.  Perhaps last night was impacted by Oakland's travel situation as they had just been in Seattle for a double-header on Sunday.  Either way, the bats can be expected to come back to life here.  Oakland takes advantage of facing German Marquez as he is known for struggling in his home starts.  2.64 ERA on the road and 6.03 ERA at home this season for Marquez.  An aberration?  No,not at all.  Last season, Marquez had a 3.67 ERA in away games and a 6.26 ERA as a host!  More struggles expected here and his counterpart, Mike Fiers, also expected to get pounded in this one.  The A's are 7-2 in his starts this season but run support has certainly played a role in that.  Fiers has been hit at a .277 clip and has a 5.06 ERA on the season.  Those numbers, of course, include zero starts at hitter-friendly Coors Field!  That said, a day game in Denver brings out the best in the Rockies lineup and Fiers will end up throwing batting practice in this one!  Per our computer math model, it looks like runs will absolutely be coming in bunches in this one and we expect to see some crooked numbers (i.e. teams scoring more than 1 run per half-inning!) being put on the scoreboard early and often in this one.  Bet the OVER in Colorado in afternoon action Wednesday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles, Monday at 7:35 PM ET

Touki Toussaint gets the start for the Braves here.  He is coming back from being optioned to Atlanta's alternate training site.  That was due to all of his struggles and we don't expect Toussaint to magically bounce back as a result. The fact is Toussaint went 4-0 last season but mostly worked out of the bullpen and that unblemished record did have a blemish on it in the form of a 5.62 ERA in his 24 appearances (1 start).  This season he has an even worse 7.98 ERA and that includes a 6.11 ERA over his 4 starts.  Historically Toussaint has been much worse on the road in comparison to at home so one could legitimately question why the Braves are bringing him back for a road start instead of a home outing.  We question it too and, per our computer math model, projections are showing that he will get crushed tonight.  Computer math model projections also are anticipating a rough night for Orioles starter Jorge Lopez in this one.  He is facing a red hot Braves lineup that continues to pile up the runs and scored 8 in their win at Washington yesterday.  Lopez has a 6.38 ERA this season and has been consistent but not in a good way. The fact is that Lopez is trending very close to his career major league numbers and this is a guy who is 8-15 with a 5.95 ERA in his 66 MLB appearances (30 starts).  We look for the Braves to stay red hot at the plate and pound him and this one gets crazy in a hurry.  We get some line value because there will be a little breeze blowing in and that is part of the reason this total made an early drop from a 10.5 to a 10 and we won't hesitate in taking advantage of the line move.  Bet the OVER in Baltimore in early evening action Monday. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET

After yesterday's 2-1 Yankees win look for the bats to come right back to life here.  This is an ideal set up as each of the starting pitchers involved in this one had been struggling but now each enters this start off their best outing of the year thus far.  In other words, a regression to the mean can be expected here.  Look for things to quickly return to normal for the Orioles John Means and the Yankees JA Happ.  Means, despite a strong start against the Mets in his last appearance, is still just 1-3 with a 6.58 ERA this season.  Also, he has allowed 7 homers in the 18 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last 4 outings!  The Yankees crushed him for 5 earned runs in just 2 and 1 / 3 innings in his only start against them this year.  New York's Happ, prior to a strong outing in his most recent start, had allowed 4 earned runs in 3 of his first 5 starts this season.  That included allowing 4 earned runs in 4 innings against the Orioles in his lone appearance against them this season.  Per our computer math model, both pitchers struggle again in this match-up and it goes soaring over the total in complete contrast to yesterday's pitchers' duel.  Bet the OVER in the New York Yankees game in early afternoon action Sunday. 

ASA PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals, Saturday at 6:05 PM ET

Yesterday's game totaled 15 runs and went 12 innings.  Both of those factors (both teams hitting and both teams using up bullpen arms) are good signs for what to expect today.  Rookie Ian Anderson goes for the Braves.  He was great in his first start, then got hit some in his second start, then couldn't find the plate in his third start.  This is the norm with rookies trying to find their way in their first taste of the majors and now it is another road start against a quality lineup in this one.  The Nationals have averaged scoring 6.9 runs per game their last 7 games.  The Braves have also been a tear at the plate and their goes back even further.  Over their last 13 games, Atlanta has scored 6 or more runs in all but 3 of those games.  Even taking out the two outliers (a shutout and a game in which they scored a ridiculous 29 runs!), the Braves averaged 7.5 runs per game the other dozen games.  Atlanta has plenty of experience against Patrick Corbin and just crushed him last week so this is not a good match-up for the Nationals left-hander.  The Braves hit Corbin hard and get to the southpaw again this time and then get into a suspect Washington bullpen.  Per our computer math model, this total of only 9 runs (and some 8.5 out there) is a case of substance over form and the bats should be the story of the day in this one.  Bet the OVER in Washington in early evening action Saturday. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago White Sox @ Pittburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET

Yesterday's starting pitchers combined to allow just 2 runs in 9 innings!  However, the bullpens combined to allow 7 runs the rest of the way.  The total fell just short of going over but we like the value that result is helping to give us here as we project the bullpens to again struggle and, this time, both starters struggle too!  The White Sox start Dane Dunning.  The rookie right-hander just made his first road start and it did not go well.  Dunning gave up 3 earned runs on 5 hits and 4 walks in 4 and 2 / 3 innings.  Overall,  2 of his 3 starts (and his only road outing) have been rough this season.  The Pirates start JT Brubaker.  He is also a rookie and opponents have hit .290 against him in his 4 home starts.  In outings at PNC Park this season Brubaker has a 1.67 WHIP which is a bad sign for him here as he now faces a White Sox team that has won 4 of its last 5 games and scored an average of 7 runs per game in those 5 contests.  The Pirates have won 7 of their last 11 home games and have scored an average of 5 runs per game even though 2 of those games were just 7-inning contests.  Each team got to double digits in hits yesterday and more of the same expected today with the difference this time that it will result in an over.  Per our computer math model, this one gets into double digits in runs!   Bet the OVER in Pittsburgh in early evening action Wednesday. 

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians, Tuesday at 6:10 PM ET

As football season approaches cooler weather is making its way back into the picture. However, though it is already in the northern plains and upper midwest it has not yet moved east through all of the Great Lakes region.  That being said, Cleveland is still on the warm side of the weather front Tuesday and the ball should be carrying quite well in this one.  The pitching match-up is ideal for an over.  While it is true that neither one of these teams is known for a powerhouse lineup, that is also a key reason as to why this total has been holding in the 8.5 range this morning and that is a great value considering both pitchers are likely to get hit hard.  Triston McKenzie is a rookie and this will be the first time ever he has faced a major league team for a 2nd time.  Not only that, the Indians right-hander just faced the Royals last week.  Though he was successful in that start, McKenzie labored in his prior start and now Kansas City takes advantage of getting a quick second look at him.  The Indians also will enjoy facing another pitcher they just saw last week as Jakob Junis takes the mound for the Royals.  Junis took a line drive off the forearm of his throwing arm in his most recent outing.  That certainly won't help matters for a guy whom is making just his 2nd road start of this season and his 5th start overall.  He went 6-10 with a 4.88 ERA in night games in 2018 and 5-10 with a 5.40 ERA in night games last season.  This will be his 4th start under the lights this season .  He was hit hard in his only road start this season.  More of the same here.  Indians are 5-1 last 6 games and scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in those victories.  The Royals have lost 7 straight games and allowed an average of 7.3 runs per game during this losing streak. . Kansas City again gives up plenty here but they give the rookie McKenzie trouble as they see him for a 2nd time in less than a week.  Per our computer math model, this one gets into double digits in runs!   Bet the OVER in Cleveland in early evening action Tuesday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET

The set up is perfect here as these teams are off a double header yesterday.  Those games totaled 6 and 7 runs respectively but keep in mind those were only 7 inning games since it was a double header.  Also, all those runs yesterday were scored in the first 5 innings yesterday.  We fully expect these teams to again get to at least 6 or 7 runs by the midway point of the game once again and this time, being a 9-inning game, it should easily get over the total.  The Reds are starting Anthony DeSclafani here.  He is off his first start since coming back from paternity leave and he was rocked for 7 runs in less than 4 innings of work.  Also, the Pirates are loaded with hitters that have good history against DeSclafani.  Not only high batting averages but also guys like Bell, Frazier, Moran, Newman, and Polanco have combined for 9 homers in 77 at bats against him.  As you can see the Bucs hitters have a lot of experience against DeSclafani and have taken him deep often.  The Reds right-hander has a 7.71 ERA this season but the only good news for him here is that he should be the recipient of plenty of run support in this one!  The Cincinnati sticks will be teeing off against Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams in this one.  He is 1-5 with a 5.50 ERA on the season.  Reds hitters Barnhart, Casali, Castellanos, Galvis, Votto, Winker all have had good success against Williams with high averages.  Prior to yesterday's double-header (again those are shortened games!) 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games had totaled 11 or more runs.  The Reds are known for a struggling bullpen.  The Pirates, prior to yesterday's double-header had seen 5 of their 7 preceding games total 10 or more runs.  Per our computer math model, this one gets into double digits in runs as well!   Bet the OVER in Pittsburgh in early evening action Saturday.  

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays, Friday at 6:40 PM ET

Pablo Lopez gets the start for the Marlins here.  Not only does he have a 2.10 ERA on the season he has been particularly strong on the road where he has a 1.20 ERA this year.  The Rays counter with Josh Fleming and he is undefeated with a 1.74 ERA so far this season.  Opponents are hitting only .189 against Fleming.  Opponents are hitting just .224 against Lopez in his road starts.  In 6 starts overall this season Lopez has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in any of them.  Fleming has allowed a total of just 2 earned runs in his 2 starts this season.  The Marlins last 9 games have featured only 2 that totaled more than 8 runs and this game opened up with the O/U set at 8 runs.  Miami's last 6 games featured one high-scoring match-up with the Rays but in the other 5 games the Marlins have scored an average of only 1.8 runs.  Tampa Bay is 7-1 in its last 8 games but strong pitching, rather than strong hitting, has played a key role in all the winning.  The Rays only had one game of the 8 total more than 8 runs.  Tampa has allowed 3 or less runs in 6 of their past 8 games.  Per our computer math model, another low-scoring game on tap between these Florida foes.  Bet the UNDER in Tampa Bay in early evening action Friday.  

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 8:05 PM ET

The White Sox scored just 1 run at Minnesota yesterday while the Royals were shutout at home by the Indians yesterday.  That actually makes this the perfect bounce back set-up for an over today.  Chicago is starting Dylan Cease and he just faced the Royals last week and walked 6 in 4 and 1 / 3 innings.  Cease escaped damage in that start but the story will likely be different now that he faces them at Kansas City in this one.  In fact, he has allowed 8 runs (6 earned) in 8 innings over two career starts at KC.  On the road this season opponents are hitting .280 against Cease.  Speaking of getting hit hard, Danny Duffy has allowed 5 homers in his last 4 starts and that includes 2 home runs allowed versus the White Sox and that was just last week!   Chicago gets another look at him less than a week later and that is bad news for Duffy as he has struggled against the White Sox historically.  Being division rivals there is a lot of familiarity for the White Sox hitters with Duffy since he has been with the Royals for his entire career and that has spanned an entire decade.  Bet the OVER in Kansas City in evening action Thursday.  

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles, Wednesday at 4:05 PM ET

Yesterday's game was 8-5 for 13 runs through SIX innings and ultimately ended up a 9-5 final.  The Orioles have scored 5 or more runs in each of their last 4 home games.  Baltimore is likely to have little trouble with the offerings of the struggling Met Michael Wacha.  In his starts in the month of August, Wacha went 0-2 with a 9.75 ERA.  Though he piled up strikeouts, the problem for Wacha is that when contact has been made it has been solid contact.  In other words, when he misses with his location those offerings have been crushed.  Things are unlikely to improve for Wacha here as he makes his first day game start of 2020.  Last season he had a 5.62 ERA in 11 day game starts and opponents hit .306 against him.  The Orioles won't be the only team mashing the ball this afternoon.  The Mets will take advantage of facing a struggling John Means.  The Baltimore southpaw is 0-2 with an 8.59 ERA in his five starts this season.  Means has a 10.13 ERA in his 4 home starts this year and got destroyed in his only day game outing.  Last season, a good one for Means, saw him allow opponents to hit just .217 against him in night starts but .274 in day game starts.  In other words, this is not the spot for Means to turn it around.  Per our computer math model, just like yesterday's game, there is a strong probability this game reaches the double digit mark in runs scored by the 6th inning!  Bet the OVER in Baltimore in afternoon action Wednesday.  

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET

After a day off Monday, these teams are back beginning a new series on Tuesday.  How did August go for the Dodgers bats?  How about setting a new team record with 57 homers for the month!  Things are not so rosy for the Diamondbacks as they endured plenty of losing in recent weeks but look for LA's Julio Urias to help the Arizona bats come back to life here.  Urias has struggled in his last two starts with those outings lasting just 5 and 2 / 3 innings and the lefty allowing 5 earned runs on 10 hits and 4 walks in those two shortened appearances.  The Diamondbacks faced Urias exactly one month ago to the day so seeing him again will also be an edge for the hitters and they catch the southpaw in a downward trend as his fastball velocity is down and yet the velocity on his offspeed stuff is up.  That is not the dynamic you want to present to major league hitters and until he sorts this out he needs to be faded.  The good news for Urias here is that he should be the recipient of plenty of run support in this one.  Arizona has lost 10 of its last 11 games and allowed an average of 5 runs per game during this stretch.  The Dodgers have won 15 of 18 games and scored an average of 6.3 runs per game during this stretch.  LA will be facing Alex Young of the Diamondbacks in this one.  He was great in day games last season but had a 4.31 ERA in his night games compared to a 2.17 ERA in day games.  That trend has continued this season for Young as he has a 5.40 ERA in evening action and now faces the best team in baseball!  The Dodgers have seen Young twice out of the bullpen already this season and in his lone career start at Dodger Stadium, Young got rocked for 4 earned runs in 3 and 1 / 3 innings!  Per our computer math model, more of the same for Young is on tap in this one!  The Dodgers .499 slugging percentage in home games ranks among the best marks in the majors!  Bet the OVER in LA Dodgers in late night action Tuesday.  

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET

Yesterday's game saw the teams combine for 23 hits but there were 5 double plays in the game and it totaled only 7 runs. The prior game between these teams on Friday totaled 14 runs. That was preceded by the following run totals in the Rockies 3 preceding home games: 18, 19, 16. The weather in Denver this afternoon will be very warm and very dry and the conditions are perfect for the ball to be jumping off the bat and carrying very well at Coors Field. Per our computer math model, a run total in the range of the 17 runs that the Rockies 4 preceding home games averaged is what is expected here this afternoon. Chris Paddack gets the start for San Diego in this one. He has not been himself this season and opponents are hitting .303 with a .797 slugging percentage against his fastball. That, in and of itself, is a problem for Paddack. Adding to the concern for him here is the fact that he has been hit hard on the road this season plus now makes his first ever start at Colorado. Coors Field has been known to be a bit of a "house of horrors" for young pitchers when they make their first appearance there and this outing is likely to go no differently with the poor recent form of Paddack. As for Rockies starter Ryan Castellani, like most Colorado pitchers he is much better on the road than at home. In his most recent home start he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 and 2 / 3 innings. Castellani only struck out 1 in that game and the rookie right-hander has given up a pair of homers in each of his last two starts overall. He is facing a Padres team that has a .479 slugging percentage on the season. That is the #1 ranked slugging percentage in the National League. Prior to yesterday's loss, San Diego had won 9 of its last 11 games and scored an average of 8.4 runs per game in those 9 victories. Look for an 9-8 type game in this one as it flies over the total. Bet the OVER in Colorado in afternoon action Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Chicago Cubs @ Detroit Tigers, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET

On the one hand Jonathan Schoop hit a grand slam for the Tigers last night.  On the other hand, the rest of the night these two teams combined to go 1 for 12 with runners in scoring position.  For the most part it was a game that lacked clutch hitting and that is why it fell just short of the O/U of 9 runs as the game ended with a total of 8 runs scored.  Look for tonight's match-up, featuring two struggling starting pitchers, to make up for last night's shortfall.  Certainly the Cubs should bounce back after scoring just one run last night.  They'll take advantage of facing a struggling Michael Fulmer.  The Tigers right hander has not lasted more than 3 innings in any of his 4 starts.  Not only do the short outings bring a bad Detroit bullpen into play, Fulmer generally has been rocked by the time he exits his start.  One of the four was a decent outing but in the other three Fulmer allowed 12 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings.  The Tigers also will be teeing off at the plate tonight!  Chicago is starting Jon Lester.  The veteran southpaw just can't locate his cutter in recent starts and, lacking an overpowering fastball, the inability to locate his breaking pitches is a major problem.  How major?  Lester has allowed 13 earned runs in 9 and 2 / 3 innings over his last two starts.  The Cubs have allowed at least 7 runs in each of their last 4 losses.  The Cubs have scored at least 6 runs in 5 of their last 7 wins that were 9 inning games (teams playing 7 inning games in double headers this season).  That is another reason we're expecting for a lot of runs in this one either way.  Per our computer math model, the winner is tough to call in this match-up but the fact that plenty of runs will be scored is not a tough call!  Look for at least 11 in this one per our computer math model.  Bet the OVER in Detroit in early evening action Wednesday.  

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres, Tuesday at 9:10 PM ET

Chris Paddack starts for the Padres here.  The right-hander has been phenomenal in his home starts.  Last season Paddack went 6-3 with a 3.06 ERA and a .188 BAA at Petco Park.  This year, in his 2nd MLB season, Paddack has a 2.66 ERA in his 4 home starts and has held opponents to a .212 batting average.  The Mariners, being an AL team, don't have much familiarity with him and the hitters that do are a combined 6 for 31 against Paddack in his career.  Seattle starts Marco Gonzales here.  The Mariners southpaw has been fantastic in 3 of his last 4 starts.  Gonzales has allowed just 4 earned runs on only 11 hits in 20 and 1 / 3 innings spanning those 3 outings.  The Padres lineup has not faced him other than Dee Gordon and he is 0 for 3 in his career against him.  Big edges for the pitchers in this one.  Seattle is hitting .224 this season which ranks them 26th in the majors out of 30 teams.  The Padres have been hitting better and are on a 7-game winning streak but their numbers are a bit skewed too.  Their 5 runs in closing out their most recent series came on just 6 hits.  In the opener of that series they were held to just 4 runs.  Prior to that series San Diego had a couple of 10th inning victories including one that was one on a 10th inning grand slam after they managed just 2 runs through the first 9 innings.  Considering all of those factors and the lack of familiarity with Gonzales and much of the Mariners bullpen arms, the Padres will struggle at the plate here and the Mariners will struggle with Paddack as his home dominance continues.  Bet the UNDER in San Diego in late night action Tuesday.  

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET

The Red Sox team ERA of 5.89 is only ahead of one of the 30 teams in MLB!  Also, the Orioles 4.89 team ERA ranks them in the bottom third of the majors as well!  Each of these teams has struggled with their pitching this season and Boston (now in sell mode) already traded away a pair of bullpen arms to the Phillies.  The starting pitching match-up here also screams "over" which is why this total is so high too.  Yes a 10.5 is a big number but our computer math model projects this game ending with more than a dozen runs.  The Red Sox start Zack Godley.  Opponents are hitting .333 against Godley this season and he is still seeking his first win.  In 5 games (4 starts) Godley has a 6.87 ERA.  Last season Godley registered a 5.97 ERA and this is the part of the reason he is now with his 3rd team in 2 seasons!  The fact is the Red Sox are desperate for pitching and the Orioles are ranked 5th in the majors with a .453 slugging percentage and should crush Godley and the Boston bullpen today.  Baltimore is starting Wade LeBlanc in this one.  The veteran lefty has struggled in 4 of his 5 starts this season and that includes his season opening effort against the Red Sox.  LeBlanc has a 7.89 ERA on the season and the Red Sox have a number of hitters in their lineup who have hit him hard in their career meetings.  More of the same is expected here and this one is forecast to turn into a back and forth high-scoring affair with both teams turning to questionable bullpen arms early in this one after both starters get hit hard!  Bet the OVER in the Baltimore Orioles game in early afternoon action Sunday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET

The Indians had won 6 straight games before yesterday's 10-5 loss to the Tigers.  Cleveland has averaged scoring nearly 6 runs per game during this 7-game stretch.  Neither one of these teams is known for strong production at the plate this season but the fact is that they are both trending in a positive direction in that regard.  Detroit has scored 4 or more runs in 7 of their last 11 games and should enjoy success Saturday against a rookie making his MLB debut.  Not only is this the MLB debut for Triston McKenzie, he has never pitched above the AA level in the minors so this is a big jump for him.  Yesterday's total of 15 runs marked the 6th time in the Tigers last 10 games that their game totaled a dozen or more runs.  Of course the fact that Detroit has a 5.99 ERA on the season (dead last in the majors) certainly factors into that and it is a weak bullpen backing up a struggling starting pitcher for this one.  The Tigers send Matthew Boyd to the mound and the southpaw is 0-3 with a 9.64 ERA this season.  He has been having trouble with allowing too many homers and a visit to Cleveland is unlikely to help him.  Boyd allowed a total of 5 homers in his 2 starts at Progressive Field last season.  Per our computer math model, more of the same is on tap this evening as this one soars over the total.  Bet the OVER in the Cleveland Indians game in early evening action Saturday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Friday at 7:35 PM ET

The Red Sox have a 6.01 team ERA which ranks just above Detroit in the battle for the worst spot in the majors!  Of course that is not a battle you want to be in but the Red Sox are simply void of solid pitching this season.  Nathan Eovaldi made a great start for them yesterday and that was much needed and is rare.  Today the Red Sox are going with a "bullpen game" in terms of the starting pitching and of course that is bad news for a team with a 6.01 ERA on the season!  Boston is expected to use Colten Brewer (side note here we do not care who starts for Boston, we like the over no matter who gets the call as the opener).  Brewer's first career start saw him take 73 pitches just to get through 2 and 2 / 3 innings and we expect this outing to also be a struggle for him. The Orioles are starting John Means in this one and the southpaw has had a rough start to the 2020 season.  His father passed away and he missed time and is dealing with that emotionally.  In terms of physical issues, Means had missed time due to arm fatigue and has simply not been right early this season.  The Orioles bullpen is honestly not much better than the Red Sox and plus Means is only expected to last about 50 pitches here and then Jorge Lopez will likely be up next.  Means has a 10.57 ERA in his 3 starts this season.  Lopez is 7-15 with a 5.94 ERA in his career and has struggled this season too.  Before struggling at the plate in their past two games, the Orioles had enjoyed an 11-game stretch in which they averaged 6.5 runs per game.  Boston has scored at least 6 runs in 3 straight games and, per our computer math model, each team has a strong chance of getting to 6 runs in this one and it flies over the total as a result.  Bet the OVER in the Baltimore Orioles game in early evening action Friday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves, Monday at 7:10 PM ET

The Braves Touki Toussaint is coming off a rough start against the Yankees.  He is likely in for another rough one here as he has a history of struggles against the Nationals and that has proven true even when he faces them at home where Toussaint normally pitches better.  That being said, and with favorable weather conditions at hitter-friendly Truist Park expected tonight, this game has potential to turn into quite a slug-fest.  Toussaint has an 8.59 ERA in his career against the Nationals and has walked 10 in just 7 and 1 / 3 innings of work when facing Washington.  Last season against the Nats he gave up 2 homers in 6 and 1 / 3 innings.  This season Toussaint had an outing featuring 4 scoreless innings against the Mets.  However, in his other 3 outings he has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in 13 and 1 / 3 innings.  Per our computer math model, another rough outing is on tap here for Toussaint.  Speaking of rough times ahead, the Nationals are starting Anibal Sanchez here.  The right-hander has lost all 3 of his starts and compiled a 9.69 ERA so far this season.  He has allowed 5 homers in 13 innings this season.  Washington has scored an average of 7 runs per game L7 games.  Atlanta is 7-2 in home games this season and has averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game in the 7 victories.  Bet the OVER in the Atlanta Braves game in early evening action Monday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET

The Angels Julio Teheran is struggling early this season (13.50 ERA) and now faces a Dodgers team whose .449 slugging percentage ranks 4th in the majors!  The Dodgers are heating up at the plate too as they have won 4 straight games and scored an average of 7.5 runs per game in those victories.  They will need all the runs they can get in this one because our computer math model is also forecasting their starter, Dustin May, to struggle in this one.  May has a low ERA early this season but certainly has been far from unhittable.  What we like most about this match-up is the Angels most dangerous hitters are powerful right-handed sticks like Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon.  Coupled with the fact the Angels will likely have 5 of their other 7 sticks stepping in on the left-handed side of the plate and you have the makings of a rough start for May.  Last season he had a 9.53 ERA against lefties and they hit .346 against him!  This season so far lefties are hitting .306 against May.  The Angels have scored an average of 5.8 runs per game in their past 5 games and 4 of those 5 games ended with a game total of 11 or more runs being scored.  Our computer math model is forecasting that this one will too and we look for another high-scoring game at Angel Stadium.  Bet the OVER in the LA Angels game in late afternoon action Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins, Friday at 7:10 PM ET

The Braves are off a 6-3 loss to the Yankees Wednesday but they had 11 hits in that game.  Atlanta entered that game having averaged scoring 7 runs per game in their 4 prior games and 2 of those games were only 7 innings long because the Braves played a double-header during this stretch.  The point is that the Braves have been swinging the bats quite well.  The Marlins also have enjoyed some recent success at the plate.  Overall, Miami has been a big surprise early this season and they are 8-4 on the year which makes this a big showdown in the NL East.  The Marlins have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their 8 victories this season and have scored at least 4 runs in 5 of their past 6 games.  Getting each team to 4 runs in this game guarantees us a winning ticket with this total set at 8.5 runs.  We like our chances in that regard as Miami will have plenty of confidence at the plate in their home stadium and off a 14-11 win over Toronto on Wednesday.  The Braves .437 slugging percentage ranks them 8th in the majors out of 30 teams.  Miami starter Pablo Lopez is winless in his 5 career starts against Atlanta.  The Braves start Kyle Wright in this one and he is now 0-5 with a 7.41 ERA in his 14 career appearances (7 starts) at the MLB level.  He gave up 2 homers in his lone career start against the Marlins and Miami will bring momentum into this one from the successful finish to the series with the Blue Jays.  The Marlins also are thrilled to finally be able to play a game at home in Miami after being away for so long due to the Covid-19 situation.  Bet the OVER in the Miami Marlins game in early evening action Friday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Washington Nationals @ New York Mets, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET

The Nationals Max Scherzer left his last start, also against the Mets, after just 1 inning due to tightness in a hamstring. Certainly Scherzer is a great pitcher but that is when he is healthy. He is not 100% and the hamstring is on his mind. This is a road start for him against a division rival that is familiar with him. The Mets lost yesterday's game to Washington by a final score of 16-4 and New York's last 7 home games have totaled an average of 11 runs per game. In this one we get an O/U of only 8.5 runs to work with as Scherzer's long-term reputation carries weight of course and keeps this total lower than it should be per our computer math model. Rick Porcello gets the start for the Mets here and is off of a strong start against the Nationals but he was fortunate as he gave up a lot of hard contact. Of course hard contact and Porcello go hand in hand! Prior to his start against Washington, Porcello was 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA in his first two starts this season. He entered this season off a 14-12 year last season but that was thanks to run support as Porcello had a 5.52 ERA on the campaign! The Nationals exploded for 16 runs on 17 hits in yesterday's big win and will be very confident at the plate this evening as a result of yesterday's success plus the fact they just faced Porcello last week. Bet the OVER in the New York Mets game in early evening action Tuesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres, Saturday at 9:10 PM ET

The Diamondbacks have averaged scoring only 2.4 runs per game in their 7 road games this season.  Arizona got shut out by the Padres last night and are likely in for another tough night at the plate Saturday.  That is because Chris Paddack takes the mound for San Diego here.  He has been very sharp already this season.  He also is at his best at home.  Paddack is already 2-0 in his 2 home starts this season and last season at home he went 6-3 with a 3.06 ERA and opponents hit just .188 against him at Petco Park.  The Diamondbacks starting pitcher tonight should also enjoy success.  Merrill Kelly has been sharp overall in his early season action (even battling hard against a tough Dodgers lineup) and the Padres have averaged only 6 hits per game in their past 3 games.  Kelly had a great September last year and has carried that momentum right into this season.  He is now 5-2 with a 2.31 ERA in his last 7 starts!  In Kelly's last two starts against the Padres he has pitched 14 scoreless innings while allowing just 5 hits and striking out 18!  Suffice to say he has plenty of confidence entering this match-up against the Padres.  Per our computer math model runs will be few and far between in this one.  Bet the UNDER in San Diego in late night action Saturday.  

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals, Friday at 8:05 PM ET

You never want to over-react to one game but the Royals 13-2 win yesterday was a big one for this team.  It is the kind of confidence-boosting win that can get an entire lineup going.  KC pounded out 18 hits and got RBI's yesterday from 7 of the 9 lineup spots.  In other words, it was a true team effort and gives Kansas City a lot of confidence heading into this match-up against a struggling Twins pitcher.  Keep in mind, yesterday's game was the 3rd time in 4 games that a Royals home game has totaled at least 11 runs.  Also, facing the Twins Devin Smeltzer should help the Royals bats carry momentum from yesterday's big win.  Smeltzer got rocked in his lone appearance on the road this season and also struggled in his outings away from home last season.  Kansas City starts Jakob Junis in this one.  He went 4-8 with a 5.85 ERA in his home starts last season.  Kauffman Stadium can be a very hitter friendly ballpark especially when the wind is blowing out like it is expected to be tonight.  Junis first start this season (versus the White Sox) did not go well.  Now he faces a Twins lineup loaded with home run power.  Junis has allowed 8 homers in his last 6 starts against Minnesota and, per our computer math model, more struggles for him against this potent lineup are expected tonight.  Bet the OVER in Kansas City in evening action Friday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies, Thursday at 6:05 PM ET

There is rain in the Philly area this morning and could be some lingering afternoon activity as well.  However, forecasts as of now indicate a quieter period in the early evening before rain possibly resumes overnight.  In any event, this situation is too strong to ignore and we hope the weather stays away enough that they are able to play the full 9 innings in this one.  Zach Eflin is actually the #4 starter for the Phillies but making his first appearance of the season due to prior covid-19 and weather cancellations.  Very tough for a pitcher to stay sharp when the season started two weeks ago and yet he is just now getting his shot at game action on the mound!  Plus Eflin will be facing a Yankees team whose .491 slugging percentage is tops in the majors.  Eflin has good stuff in his repertoire of pitches but he has never been able to fully harness it and has a 4.73 ERA at the MLB level as he now enters his 5th season.  The Yankees start Jordan Montgomery here and he'll be facing a Phillies lineup that came to life yesterday with a big 11-7 win in the first game of yesterday's double header.  Philadelphia's .424 slugging percentage ranks them 7th among the 30 teams in the majors. Montgomery does have a knack for giving up the long ball particularly in road starts.  Also, this will be just his 9th start since his rookie season in 2017 which was the last time he had significant activity at the MLB level.  In other words you've got two starting pitchers here who are each question marks to an extent based on the above.  You also have two potent powerful lineups and our computer math model is calling for a dozen runs to be scored in this one.  Bet the OVER in Philadelphia in early evening action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET

The Indians have struggled to score runs all season.  They show an average of 2.7 runs per game in their first 12 games but the reality is that it is even worse than that.  Cleveland had a big game earlier this season in which they scored 9 runs.  Other than that the Tribe have scored just 23 runs in their other 11 games.  That is an average of 2.1 runs per game which is hard to believe.  It won't get any easier for the slumping Indians bats here.  That's because they are facing Tejay Antone of the Reds.  The Cincinnati right-hander made his debut against a Cubs team that is currently in 1st place in the division and certainly a tough lineup to face. Antone shut them down with just 1 hit allowed over 4+ innings. The rookie right-hander also looked sharp in spring training and summer camp. Adding to his value in this spot is that the struggling lineup of the Indians (.183 batting average on season ranking dead last!) has never faced him. As for the Reds bats, they have also been quiet of late.  Cincinnati has scored 15 runs in their last 5 games.  Yes, two of those games were in a double-header and those are being played as just 7-inning games this season, but the fact is the Reds have a .213 batting average on the season which ranks them 23rd out of the 30 teams in the majors.  Cincinnati will face a tough pitcher today as Mike Clevinger gets the start for the Indians.  The Cleveland right-hander is coming off a rare tough start as he has been one of the most consistent hurlers in the game over the past 3 seasons compiling a 38-18 record with an ERA under the magical 3.00 mark! Also his tough outing in his last start was at Minnesota but now he is back home where he excelled in his first start this season plus went 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA last season. Per our computer math model, runs will be very tough to come by in this one.  Bet the UNDER in Cleveland in early evening action Wednesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET

The value here is huge.  This total opened up at an 8.5 which was already low (more on that in a moment) but then dropped down to a solid 8 which adds even more value to this one.  Everyone saw the Rays struggle on their road trip but they are a different team at home and also will get to Nathan Eovaldi early and often in this one.  Tampa Bay is averaging 6.6 runs per game when hitting at Tropicana Field this season.  Eovaldi is still getting factored into games as if he was the same pitcher who raised his game in the 2018 post-season with the Red Sox.  The fact is that he is not as all the injuries have caught up with him.  He has had two Tommy John surgeries and is coming off an injury-shortened 2019 campaign as well.  Eovaldi compiled a 5.99 ERA last season in 23 games (12 starts) and he got rocked by the Mets for 8 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start.  The Rays Charlie Morton got rocked in his first start this season (at home no less) but then was better in his 2nd one though he still allowed 6 hits in 5 innings and was hit quite hard.  He struggles more against lefties and the Red Sox will have plenty of left-handed lumber in the lineup tonight plus some big right-handed sticks like Xander Bogaerts whom no one wants to face!  While the Rays do have a solid bullpen behind Morton the Red Sox bats are quite dangerous.  As for the Boston bullpen, they have issues and their team ERA is high for a reason!  That said, the Red Sox pitching is bad enough that the Rays bats come to life at home.  The Boston bats are strong enough that the Rays pitchers prove susceptible.  Combining those factors and the fact that Eovaldi and Morton have been more hittable than usual early this season and you have the makings of an easy over in this one.  Bet the OVER in the Rays game in early evening action Tuesday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Cleveland Indians @ Cincinnati Reds, Monday at 6:40 PM ET

The Indians have struggled to score runs all season.  They show an average of 2.6 runs per game in their first 10 games but the reality is that it is even worse than that.  Cleveland had a big game earlier this season in which they scored 9 runs.  Other than that the Tribe have scored just 17 runs in their other 9 games.  That is an average of 1.9 runs per game which is hard to believe.  It won't get any easier for the slumping Indians bats here.  That's because they are facing Sonny Gray of the Reds.  The Cincinnati right-hander has absolutely dominated in his first two starts and continues piling up strikeouts!  As for the Reds bats, they have also been quiet of late.  Cincinnati has scored 10 runs in their last 3 games.  Yes, the last two were a double header and those are being played as just 7-inning games this season but the fact is the Reds have a .226 batting average on the season which ranks them 20th out of the 30 teams in the majors.  Cincinnati will face a tough pitcher today as Zach Plesac gets the start for the Indians.  The Cleveland right-hander is coming off a solid 2019 and got 2020 off to a great start as he absolutely handcuffed the White Sox in a dominating effort in which he fanned 11 in 6 innings.  Per our computer math model, runs will be very tough to come by in this one.  Bet the UNDER in Cincinnati in early evening action Monday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, Sunday at 7:08 PM ET

Yesterday's game saw 7 runs scored by the top of the 3rd inning and then the bats went silent.  That is highly unlikely to happen again today.  The Red Sox team ERA ranks among the worst in the majors so far this season.  Boston is scheduled to use Austin Brice as an opener in this one.  That said, it really wouldn't matter who the Red Sox use as the starter here but he is the one that is scheduled for Boston as of this morning.  Again, this one is being called a "bullpen game" for the Red Sox.  Brice has a 5.00 ERA in his 110 MLB appearances and has never started a game.  This season he has allowed 4 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work.  The wind is expected to be blowing out to left field for this one on Sunday evening in the Bronx.  That will help the hitters for both teams of course and we like the chances of the Boston bats coming back to life after last night's dismal result.  The Red Sox will face James Paxton who is off a horrible start in which he was rocked by the Nationals.  He is trying to get back to his usual form after having back surgery early this year.  Suffice to say early indicators point to issues.  Paxton plans to make some adjustments for this start but he tends to be a streaky pitcher as evidenced by his month to month stats last season.  We're banking on an early season down cycle for him this season and expect another tough start in his 2nd outing of the season.  Bet the OVER in the Yankees game in early evening action Sunday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, Friday at 7:10 PM ET

Both teams are off games in which they scored just 2 runs last night.  However, the O/U on this one opened up at a 10 with good reason.  The Mets were hosting the Red Sox last night and fell short but now face Sean Newcomb of the Braves whom they already faced last week.  The Braves hung on for a 2-1 win hosting the Rays last night.  While their bats were quiet in that game, Atlanta will now take advantage of again seeing Rick Porcello as they faced him this past weekend in their opening series of the season.  Porcello struggled and gave up 7 earned runs in just 2 innings in that outing against the Braves.  He had a 5.52 ERA with the Red Sox last season and giving a team a second look at you after they just rocked you in your prior start usually doesn't go well for a struggling hurler.  That being said, Porcello has seen his better days in this league and is on the downhill slide at this point in his career.  Atlanta's Newcomb had a ton of trouble with his command against the Mets this past weekend and it took 82 pitches for him just to record 10 outs as he lasted just 3 and 1 / 3 innings in that start.  The Braves lefty is notorious for being a slow starter as he had a rough April each of the past two years.  In this strange pandemic year, this is Newcomb's April and, per our computer math model, more struggles ensue today for both starting pitchers and the bullpens will again be called upon far too early as a result.  Bet the OVER in the Braves game in early evening action Friday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

The Yankees (9 runs scored, 3 homers) proved yesterday that missing a series in Philly (due to the covid-19 situation with the Marlins who had just visited there) was not going to impact their bats.  Indeed the Yankees had their big lumber going yesterday and we expect more of the same tonight.  John Means gets the start for the Orioles.  The lefty was supposed to start the season opener for Baltimore but did not due to arm fatigue.  That is certainly not a good sign for Means and he does not have overpowering stuff plus is a flyball pitcher.  Yes he had some success for the Orioles last year but not against New York.  The Yankees crushed Means for 10 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings in the two times they faced him as a starter.  Plus, with arm fatigue already an issue for Means entering this season, you could see an early exit for him here and that gets the Yanks powerful bats into a weak Orioles bullpen.  Baltimore had a 5.92 ERA in home games last season - the worst mark in the league.  Yankees start JA Happ here and the southpaw would likely rather face someone other than the Orioles.  Happ's 6.85 ERA in 5 starts against Baltimore last season show that this is a team that gives him trouble.  Happ gave up 7 homers to the Orioles last season and no team hit more against him . There were 4 homers hit in yesterday's game and the ball will again be carrying well at Camden Yards again tonight with a favorable weather report for the hitters.  All signs, including our computer math model, point to this game turning into a high-scoring affair with plenty of big innings expected.  Bet the OVER in the Orioles game in early evening action Thursday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER the Total - Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET

Charlie Morton starts for the Rays here.  He was great through the first three innings of his first start of the season.  Morton then uncharacteristically ran into trouble in both the 4th and 5th innings.  He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball (45-16 last 3 seasons) and will bounce back strong here facing the team that he began his career with.  Morton had a 3.08 ERA the last 2 seasons and is known for responding well when off a rough outing.  The Rays right-hander had a 1.39 ERA in his 8 starts last season which followed an outing in which he was charged with 4 or more runs.  Morton will take advantage of facing a Braves team that is not swinging the bats very well.  Atlanta had one big game at the plate so far this season but in the other 4 games (3 losses), the Braves have scored an average of only 3 runs a game.  The key to the value with the under here is that the Braves are turning to their staff ace Mike Soroka for this start.  He pitched 6 scoreless innings in his opening day start and is coming off a season in which he went 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA.  The Rays have very little familiarity with him and like the Braves, have had only one big game at the plate so far this season.  Other than one strong game, Tampa Bay's other 4 games have seen them average only 6 hits per game!  Soroka versus Morton, per our computer math model, is set up perfect to be a pitchers duel.  Bet the UNDER in Atlanta in early evening action Wednesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 6:05 PM ET

The Blue  Jays ended up without Bo Bichette, Randal Grichuk, and Travis Shaw on Monday and yet Toronto still finished with 4 homers in the game.  The problem for anyone who had the over in Monday's contest was that all 4 homers were solo shots in the 4-1 win.  The other problem (speaking for those who had the over) was that the Blue Jays recorded 4 double plays, the teams went a combined 2 for 14 with runners in scoring position and the Nationals scored just 1 run despite 10 hits.  All these signs point to a much higher scoring match-up on Tuesday even if the above mentioned players are again out of the lineup (although 1 or 2 are likely to be back in it).  The key is the pitching match-up here and the fact that the Nationals wasted so many opportunities Monday and are likely to bounce back huge at the plate after the 4-1 home loss.  The Blue Jays are starting former Nat Tanner Roark and he was very hittable in summer camp and got hit at a .279 clip on the road last season.  He is a combined 19-25 the past two seasons and has had unimpressive ERAs for the season the past 3 years since his phenomenal 2016 campaign.  Roark may be guilty of "overthrowing" here as emotion gets the best of him as he faces his former team in DC.  Also, Blue Jays closer Ken Giles is out with an injury!  We also look for the Nationals starting pitcher, Austin Voth, to struggle in this one.  The right-hander struggled against left-handed bats last season in terms of batting average against and the Jays had 4 left-handed bats in last night's lineup.  Against righties, Voth had trouble in terms of power with 4 homers allowed in 24 innings versus righties.  The Jays proved again last night, even without their full lineup, that they have plenty of power as they knocked 4 out of the park.   Toronto entered this season with plenty expected at the plate but they faced the pitching-rich Rays to open the season and that held them back some.  On Tuesday they take advantage of facing the Nats #5 starter.  At the same time, the Nationals run production picks up after a crazy result in Monday's game filled with wasted opportunities for the home team.  Bet the OVER in Washington in early evening action Tuesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET

Kenta Maeda gets the start for the Twins here.  He had some impressive numbers (at times) in LA courtesy of pitching in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium.  On the road was a different story for Maeda.  Last season was the 2nd time in the past 3 seasons that Maeda had an ERA north of 5.00 away from home.  Now he faces a White Sox team that pounded out 5 homers in yesterday's 10-3 win over the Twins.  It will be hot and humid weather with the wind expected to be blowing out to left-center at Guaranteed Rate Field Sunday.  Minnesota, 10-5 winners Friday, will also take advantage of this.  Per our computer math model, there will be plenty of runs scored in this Sunday match-up with a result similar to the first two games of the series.  The White Sox are starting Reynaldo Lopez here.  The righty particularly struggled against left-handed batters last season and it is likely that about half of the Twins lineup will step in on that side of the plate Sunday.  Remember that Friday's game - an explosion on offense for Minny - came against a right-handed starter.  Lopez had all sorts of trouble with the Twins last season (0-3, 9.60 ERA) and we expect more of the same here.  The icing on the cake for this match-up is that both bullpens have been used extensively already in this high-scoring series so, after these two starters get knocked out early (likely), each pen will be put in a tough spot as this game goes on.  Plus the White Sox really got to the Twins pen yesterday and Minny gave the Chicago pen trouble in Friday's game.  Bet the OVER in Chicago White Sox in early afternoon action Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday at 8:37 PM ET

It is hard to fathom any scenario that involves many runs being scored in this match-up.  Game 5 first round post-season elimination game, all bullpen arms rested and at the ready thanks to yesterday's off day, and a pair of dominating starting pitchers on the mound.  The Nationals are starting Stephen Strasburg and he has an incredible 0.64 ERA in his 5 post-season appearances (4 starts) in his career.  The Dodgers are starting Walker Buehler and he has not allowed an earned run in his last 16 and 2 / 3 innings of post-season work.  Buehler has held opponents to a .167 batting average in his 5 career post-season starts.  Strasburg has held opponents to just 11 hits in 23 innings spanning his last 4 post-season appearances (3 starts).  The under has cashed in 7 of the Nationals last 9 playoff games and, per our computer math model, that trend continues on Wednesday.  We look for the under to improve to a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times that the Dodgers were in a playoff game facing elimination.  Pitchers duel expected here!  Bet the UNDER in LA Dodgers in evening action Wednesday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 3:05 PM ET

Yesterday's game between these teams was 6-2 through 3 innings but miraculously did not go over the total of 10.5 as the game ended up a 7-3 Blue Jays win. Look for Saturday's game to feature more scoring throughout the game. The Mariners are going with a bullpen game here as Reggie McClain will be the starter. The concept of "bullpen games" was first, or at least mostly, employed by Tampa Bay. It made sense too because it worked. However, that is because the Rays are known for having a quality bullpen. Again this season the Rays are one of the best bullpens in MLB. As for the Mariners, they are one of the worst pens in the majors. That said, it doesn't work so well for them and this is particularly true when Seattle is up against a red hot offense. The Blue Jays have a .553 slugging percentage this month. That ranks them 3rd in the majors behind only the Yankees and Astros! As you can, Toronto is keeping pretty good company of late. The Mariners lineup has been a little quieter of late but this still a Seattle team whose .455 slugging percentage on the road this season ranks them 4th in the AL. The Mariners will take advantage of an inconsistent Trent Thornton. The Toronto right-hander is off a very strong start against the Yankees but he has a knack for following up quality starts with bad ones.. In fact, the last 3 times Thornton was off a start in which he has allowed 2 or less earned runs, he has been rocked all 3 times allowing a total of 16 earned runs in 3 starts which lasted a combined 8 and 1 / 3 innings.. Given these numbers and this distinct pattern with Thornton as well as the fact that McClain was pitching in the single A level of the minors this season, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is predicting a slug-fest at Rogers Centre Saturday afternoon. Bet the OVER in the Blue Jays game in afternoon action Saturday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, Saturday at 9:05 PM ET

Last night tempers erupted in this divisional match-up and the dugouts emptied onto the field right at the conclusion of the game. As a direct result, expect the hitters from both lineups to be "locked in" to the offerings of the pitchers in tonight's match-up. Without a doubt intensity is sky high and this is a pressure packed situation for two starting pitchers whom are unlikely to handle it well. The reason for that is that Alex Young is a rookie and this will be the first time a team is seeing him for a 2nd game. He came out of the bullpen for 2 and 1 / 3 innings against the Dodgers earlier this season. In his most recent road start Young faced a bad Marlins team and yet he gave up 8 hits in 6 innings while striking out only 2 batters. The Arizona southpaw faces a much tougher test here. The only team in the National League producing more runs in home games than the Dodgers is the Rockies. That said, consider the home venue that Colorado plays in compared to the one that LA calls home. The fact is that the Dodgers are arguably the best hitting team in the National League as imagine what their lineup would do if Coors Field was their home! As for the Diamondbacks, their .470 slugging percentage in road games this season does rank them #1 in the National League. They are facing Kenta Maeda and he is feeling the pressure as he knows his rotation spot could be surrendered to another hurler very soon. Part of the reason for this is that Maeda hasn't earned a win in any of his starts since mid-May! Maeda may not handle the intensity well in tonight's game and, in just 9 and 1 / 3 innings, Maeda has allowed 8 runs (5 earned) in his last two home starts versus the Diamondbacks. Arizona has pounded 3 homers in those 9 and 1 / 3 innings at Dodger Stadium. The over is 9-3-1 in Maeda's last 13 starts versus the Diamondbacks. Prior to last night's under, the over was 5-1 in Arizona's last 5 games and the Diamondbacks averaged 8.4 runs per game in those 5 games. The Dodgers, prior to last night's loss, were 8-1 in their last 9 games and had scored an average of 6.3 runs per game in those 8 victories. Considering all of the above, take advantage of the low total being offered in this one and expect a very entertaining game tonight as intensities are on the rise in this divisional rivalry. Bet the OVER in the Dodgers game in late evening action Saturday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET

These lineups just faced these pitchers last week and that is a big edge as they see these starting pitchers again in their very next starts. Although Adam Plutko has enjoyed success against the Royals this season, both starts were at home. In fact, Plutko has had a very home-heavy schedule since he joined the rotation and that has certainly helped his results. Plutko entered this season with a 6.83 ERA on the road in his 8 appearances (5 starts) in his young career. In 2019, Plutko has logged 70% of his innings at home which has helped his overall success. On the road this season, just as in the past, the Indians right-hander has struggled. Opponents are hitting .323 against Plutko when he is away from home this year. He'll be facing a Royals team that has momentum on its side after a 2-0 series sweep over the Braves. Though Kansas City didn't hit well in the short series, they now return home where they went 6-1 in their most recent home-stand. The Royals scored an average of 7 runs per game on that home-stand. The Indians are also likely to score well tonight. Cleveland enters this series 15-4 after their 4-0 shutout win last night at Toronto. Their sticks have been hot during this stretch and that includes averaging 7.8 runs per game in their last 5 games against left-handed starters. Thursday the Indians face struggling lefty Mike Montgomery whom they just enjoyed great success against last week. Montgomery has a 6.83 ERA this season and opponents are hitting .347 against him this season. In 6 games (1 start) against the Indians in his career, the Royals southpaw has a 9.53 ERA. Behind Montgomery is a KC bullpen that ranks in the bottom third of the majors. The over is 7-2 in Cleveland's last 9 games against a left-handed starter. The over is 5-1 in Kansas City's last 6 home games against a right-handed starter. Combining all the above factors with a drop on this total from 10.5 to a 10 and we see huge value with the over at Kauffman Stadium and the wind expected to be blowing out toward left field. Bet the OVER in the Royals game in evening action Thursday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, Sunday at 1:10 PM ET

This total was already a short number when it opened up at an 8.5 and it has since dropped to a 7.5 which is offering phenomenal value with the over. Blake Snell gets the start for the Rays and he has great career numbers against the White Sox. However, especially in today's MLB, players change teams with such frequency that it is important to look at hitter on pitcher cumulative stats rather than just team stats. In this case, the White Sox have 6 players (whom all were starters in yesterday's game) that are a combined 13 for 30 (.433 batting average) with 3 homers against Snell. Those 6 players are Abreu, Garcia, Jay, McCann, Rondon, Sanchez. We look for Chicago to enjoy some success here at the plate against Snell. The Tampa Bay lefty will be opposed by rookie Dylan Cease of the White Sox. Cease, per scouts, has been said to have pitched better than his stats would indicate in his first two starts at the MLB level. However, it should also be noted that he faced two of the worst teams (Royals and Tigers) in the American League. Now Cease faces one of the top teams in the AL and, since the All-Star Break, the Rays are tied with the Astros for the most homers (19) in the American League. Cease does come in as a highly touted prospect but this was his first season above the AA level of the minors and, at AAA Charlotte he had a 4.48 ERA and opponents hit .284 against him. Those are certainly not dominating numbers at the minor league level. Tampa Bay's lineup will take advantage and bounce back after yesterday's disappointing low-scoring extra-innings loss. Chicago is 7-3 to the over this season after a one-run win. The over is 15-5 in Rays games when they are a home favorite of -200 or more. . Tampa Bay is also 7-2 to the over when they enter a game on a losing streak of 5 or more consecutive games. Bet the OVER in the Rays game in early afternoon action Sunday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, Thursday at 9:05 PM ET

Mike Trout might be back in the lineup for the Angels tonight. Either way, this one has the makings of a very high-scoring game. The Angels only scored 2 runs in last night's loss but Los Angeles entered that game having won 5 straight games and having scored an average of 9 runs per game in their 6 prior games! The Astros put up 11 runs in last night's contest and Houston has now averaged scoring 7.5 runs per game in its last 4 games against the Angels. The Astros will be facing Matt Harvey. The right-hander recently returned to the rotation and the line score would indicate that he was much better in his first start back. However, Harvey gave up a lot of hard hit balls and he was very fortunate the damage wasn't worse. Also, the Astros have a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against him. Harvey has an 8.91 ERA in his 7 starts at Angel Stadium this season. As for the Astros Wade Miley, he has been very strong at home this season but has a very mediocre 4.50 ERA in his 11 road starts this season! Miley is facing a red hot Angels lineup and note that Los Angeles ranks 3rd in the American League for runs scored in home games on the season. LA can come up big here at the plate in this one but, the Astros are highly likely to hammer Harvey and this one sees plenty of runs scored as a result. The Angels are 6-3 to the over this season as an underdog of +150 or more. The Angels are 5-2 to the over in their last 7 games. Bet the OVER in the Angels game in late night action Thursday

ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER: Chicago White Sox at Oakland A's, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

The White Sox are hitting. 271 against left-handed pitching this season which ranks them #3 out of 15 teams in the American League. Chicago will be facing Oakland's Brian Anderson in this one. The A's southpaw has struggled in afternoon games this season. In his 7 day game starts Anderson has been hit at a .324 clip and has a 6.09 ERA! His counterpart on the mound for the White Sox today is Reynaldo Lopez. The Chicago right-hander has been very consistent this season...consistently bad! Lopez has pledged to make adjustments and be better but he has shown no evidence of that. He is 1-4 with a 6.59 ERA on the road this season and opponents have hit .314 against him away from home. Lopez has managed a quality start only twice in his last eight outings! He has been hit hard in 5 of his last 6 road starts. He is facing a red hot Oakland team that has won 9 of its last 11 games and scored an average of 9.6 runs per game in those 9 victories. Considering that stat as well as the fact that the Anderson is also likely to struggle for the A's here, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is forecasting double digits in runs scored in this match-up. Oakland's over is 7-2 this season as a favorite of -175 to -250. This is the 15th Sunday game for the A's this season and so far only 4 of them have resulted in an under. That trend continues with another high-scoring Sunday afternoon game on tap here! Bet the OVER in the Athletics game in late afternoon action Sunday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Oakland A's at Seattle Mariners, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET

Daniel Mengden gets the start for the A's. He had a decent May after being called up from AAA Las Vegas but he has struggled since then. The Oakland right-hander has a 7.07 ERA in his last 3 appearances (2 starts). He only allowed 1 earned run in a recent start against the Mariners but he allowed 5 hits and walked 5 in just 4 innings of work so Mengden was certainly very fortunate. That was earlier this season. In prior seasons, Mengden is winless in 4 appearances (3 starts) against Seattle and he has a 5.89 ERA in those outings. You can see why the expectation is for him to struggle here against a potent Mariners lineup. Seattle is slated to use right-hander Matt Carasiti as an opener here. That makes sense as the #1 and #2 hitters in the A's lineup are right-handed sticks. However, Carasiti is likely to go just one inning at most and then he'll give way to Wade LeBlanc. Essentially LeBlanc is the starter even though he is not listed as such. The southpaw is expected to see most of the action here and he has been rocked by Oakland this season. In two appearances (one start) against the A's this season, LeBlanc has an 11.74 ERA and Oakland is hitting .378 against him this season! Behind LeBlanc is a Seattle bullpen that has a 5.07 ERA this season. That is the second worst mark in the American League. Prior to being held to 3 runs in yesterday's loss, the Athletics scored an average of 6.6 runs per game in their 7 prior games and they'll bounce back here. The Mariners have scored an average of 5.9 runs per game in their past 10 home games. Not surprisingly, our computer math model is forecasting a dozen runs in this match-up. Bet the OVER in the Mariners game in late afternoon action Sunday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET

It looks like Jose Quintana is off a great start at Cincinnati Saturday as the line score for him shows 0 earned runs in 6 innings. However, he gave up one hard hit ball after another after another...it was one of those days where the line drives simply were hit right at guys. Quintana was not fooling the hitters and the lefty entered that outing with a 6.75 ERA in his 6 prior outings. Now the southpaw faces a Pirates team that has been very hot at the plate. With their 6-5 win yesterday, Pittsburgh has won 12 of 17 games and the Pirates have scored an average of 6.3 runs per game in their past 21 games! Only 7 of the Pirates past 21 games (33%) have resulted in an under. Pittsburgh is 12-4 to the over this season in home games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the Pirates are 13-6 to the over this season in games against left-handed starters. Only 11 of the Cubs 33 games (33%) this season have resulted in an under when they are facing a team with a losing record. Pittsburgh starter Jordan Lyles has a 4.94 ERA in his day game starts this season. Also, he was off to a strong start this season but reality is setting in as he went winless with a 6.00 ERA in his 3 June starts. In 230 career games (128 starts) Lyles has a 5.15 ERA at the MLB level. In other words, his long-term numbers tell the full story! While Lyles got the better of the Cubs way back in early April, weather conditions then were much different than they are now. Also, Chicago has had just 5 unders in their past 15 games and the Cubs have scored an average of 5 runs per game during this stretch. Per our computer math model, this game is projected to finish with a dozen runs scored as the over moves to 13-7-1 this season in Cubs road games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs. The Cubs blew another save opportunity yesterday and Chicago and Pittsburgh both are in the bottom third of the save percentage rankings. The bullpens will be our friend in this game too! Bet the OVER in the Pirates game in late afternoon action Thursday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET

Yesterday's game was 6-3 in the top of the 7th but ended that way for a frustrating push (or loss) for those whom had the over in that one. Look for today's game to more than make up for that shortfall. It will be a very steamy afternoon at Great American Ball Park Saturday and day games like this in Cincinnati have a tendency to turn the ball park into a bandbox with plenty of big extra base hits including some long balls leaving the yard. The Reds Luis Castillo has some great numbers this season but walks are becoming an issue as he has struggled with command of his pitches in recent starts. He is struggling to throw his fastball for strikes and that can lead to free passes for the hitters as well as some mistake pitches that get crushed. The potent Cubs lineup can certainly make Castillo pay. The Reds right-hander has walked 11 in less than 10 innings over his last two starts and that includes an ugly outing at Miller Park last Saturday as another divisional foe, the Brewers, gave him plenty of trouble. The Cubs lineup will do the same here but Chicago's issue in this one is also on the mound. The Cubs start Jose Quintana in this one. The southpaw is 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA in his last 6 starts. Quintana is 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA in his last 3 starts against Cincinnati. Per our computer math model, this game is projected to finish with a dozen runs scored as the over moves to 5-2 in the last 7 starts made by Quintana. The over is 10-5-1 this season in Cubs road games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs. Bet the OVER in the Reds game in late afternoon action Saturday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET

After yesterday's surprising pitchers duel, don't be surprised when you witness a much different type of game this afternoon at PNC Park.  The Pirates will have Chris Archer on the mound for this one and he has been struggling badly.  Archer has only one quality start in his last 9 appearances and he has compiled a 7.33 ERA during this very rough extended stretch.  The Padres start Chris Paddack in this one.  The San Diego right-hander is returning from a stint with Lake Elsinore in single-A ball as he worked on his repertoire of pitches and also tried to rest a tired arm.  Paddack has good numbers on the season but his recent starts are quite telling.  San Diego is 0-3 in his last 3 starts as he has compiled a 7.54 ERA in these outings.  Also, he is facing a Pirates lineup that had averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their 9 contests prior to yesterday's low-scoring win.  The Padres lineup also should do plenty of damage here.  Not only will they take advantage of a struggling Archer, San Diego had scored an average of 8 runs per game in their 7 contests prior to yesterday's low-scoring loss.  In Pirates home games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs, the over is 9-3 this season.  San Diego was 12-5-1 to the over in the month of June before Friday's pitchers duel.  Both teams bullpens have some unimpressive numbers too as the Padres have a bullpen ERA of 5.52 this season in road games while the Pirates bullpen ERA is 5.60 this season in home games.  Bet the OVER in the Pirates game in late afternoon action Saturday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET

After yesterday's pitchers duel, our computer math model is calling for a big game from both lineups in the Wednesday match-up. That forecast is not surprising when considering the pitching match-up here. The Angels are starting Andrew Heaney in this one. The LA southpaw has had limited action this season and the long-term numbers show a strong trend of struggling on the road. Entering this season, Heaney's past 3 seasons have seen him produce a 2-9 record with a 5.60 ERA in road starts. This will be Heaney's first ever start at the Rogers Centre. He has shown a propensity for struggling in his first start at a venue. The over is 6-2 this season in Wednesday games for the Angels. The over is 5-1-1 this season when the Blue Jays are a home dog in a money line range of +125 to +175. Toronto is starting Aaron Sanchez in this one. After a poor May, the thinking was that Sanchez would bounce back in June or, at least, that is what the Jays hoped for. However, the fact is that things have gone from bad to worse for the Jays right-hander. After going 0-4 with a 5.28 ERA in May, Sanchez is now 0-3 with a 10.20 ERA in the month of June. Now he faces a potent Angels lineup that has helped produce a 7-3 run for Los Angeles. In those 10 games LA has scored an average of 5.7 runs per game. The Blue Jays, prior to yesterday's poor effort at the plate, had scored an average of 6.8 runs per game in their last 6 games. Toronto will take advantage of Heaney's long-term road struggles and bounce back at the plate in this one but look for the Angels to score plenty as well with the poor recent form of Sanchez continuing for the Blue Jays. The result is a game that should see at least a dozen runs scored. Bet the OVER in the Blue Jays game in early evening action Wednesday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET

The Padres have a .449 slugging percentage in road games this season which ranks them 3rd out of the 15 teams in the National League. The Rockies have a .460 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers this season and that ranks them 8th out of all 30 teams in the majors. Colorado should pound San Diego southpaw Eric Lauer in this one. The lefty has some strong recent numbers but pitching at Coors Field is always a challenge for pitchers and Lauer is no exception. Yesterday's game went 12 innings and featured 28 runs scored! Lauer enters this start already having ill feelings about this ballpark. He lasted just 3 innings in each of the two starts he has made at Coors Field in his career. Lauer's ERA in those two starts is an ugly 21.00 at Colorado. The over is 9-3 in San Diego's June games and the Padres have scored 5 or more runs in 8 of their last 11 games. The Rockies have averaged 7.6 runs per game over the first 5 games of this 6-game homestand. Colorado has allowed 10.7 runs per game in its last 3 home games. German Marquez gets the start for the Rockies. The Colorado right-hander has seen opponents knock him around for a better than .300 batting average in his home starts this season. Marquez has a 4.85 ERA in home starts last season and this season combined. The Padres bullpen has a 4.81 ERA on the road this season and the Rockies bullpen has a 5.05 ERA in home games this season. Marquez only allowed 2 earned runs when he faced San Diego last month but he was very fortunate as he allowed 10 hits in under 6 innings of work. Per our computer math model, he won't be so fortunate in the rematch with Lauer and the latter hurler gets knocked around also. The teams combined for 14 innings of bullpen work in yesterday's extra innings affair so both bullpens are a bit tapped out heading into this one! The over is 4-0-1 in Lauer's road starts and 5-2-1 in the 8 home starts Marquez has made this season. All signs pointing to another slugfest in this series Saturday! Bet the OVER in the Rockies game in evening action Saturday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies, Monday at 8:40 PM ET

The Cubs Yu Darvish had success against the Rockies last week but that was at home at Wrigley Field. Now the Chicago right-hander faces them on the road at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Prior to his successful start last week versus Colorado, Darvish was 0-3 with a 10.98 ERA in his 3 career starts versus the Rockies and that including an ugly outing at Coors Field. The Rockies are a different team when hitting at home and they are 9-1 in their last 10 home games. Colorado has scored an average of 7 runs per game in their last 10 games on their home field. The Cubs should also enjoy a big day at the plate here. Chicago pounded German Marquez last week. The Rockies right-hander has a 14.54 ERA in his last 2 starts against the Cubs. That includes last week at Wrigley Field and last season at Coors Field. No matter the venue, Marquez has a match-up issue when facing this tough Cubs lineup. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 starts Marquez has made at home. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 starts Darvish has made. The over is 18-10-1 this season in Cubs road games. Per our computer math model, a back and forth slug-fest is expected at Coors Field in this one. Bet the OVER in the Rockies game in evening action Monday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

The Rockies are 11-2 their last 13 games and have averaged scoring 7 runs per game during this hot streak. In terms of consistency, Colorado has scored 4 or more runs in all 13 of those games! Temperatures today in Chicago will be near 80 and the winds will be blowing out toward left-center field at a strong clip. The set up is perfect for plenty of homers in this one. The last time the Cubs Kyle Hendricks faced the Rockies at Wrigley Field he allowed 3 homers in that start! Hendricks is off a strong start but it was in inter-league action. In his last two starts against National League foes he gave up 7 earned runs in 11 and 2 / 3 innings. With how hot the Rockies have been as well as the favorable hitting conditions for this one, there should be runs aplenty for the road team in this match-up. Additionally, the Cubs are set up well to match them run for run here. Colorado is starting Jeff Hoffman and he has a 7.20 ERA in his 3 starts this season. In the last two he allowed 3 home runs in a combined 10 innings of work. Chicago exploded for 8 runs in their win over the Angels yesterday at Wrigley Field and another big day at the plate is expected here per our computer math model. The Cubs have averaged 6.3 runs per game in their last 6 home games. None of those games resulted in an under as the over is 5-0-1 in those 6 games! Rockies games, when Colorado is off a win, are 19-10-1 to the over this season. The Cubs streak of overs in home games resumes on Tuesday night. Bet the OVER in the Cubs game in evening action Tuesday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 6:10 PM ET

The Red Sox are starting Ryan Weber in this one. The 28 year old right-hander has spent most of his career in the minors. This is not a good match-up for him. Weber has shown that he struggles more against left-handed batters than right-handed sticks. He will see almost every single batter stepping in on the left-hand side in this one as the Indians are loaded with left-handed bats and switch-hitters. Weber is 2-5 with a 4.41 ERA in his 9 career starts at the MLB level. Cleveland erupted for 7 runs in yesterday's win and has already scored a dozen runs in the first two games of this series at Fenway Park. The Indians are starting Shane Bieber here and he has received a lot of fanfare with striking out 25 batters in his last two starts. However, both of those outings were at home and he also threw 111 pitches just to get through 5 innings in his most recent start. The last time Bieber pitched on the road he allowed 4 homers at Chicago against the White Sox. Now he faces a Red Sox team whose team batting average in home games ranks 2nd in the American League. Boston is known for being tough on opposing pitchers at Fenway Park and they also got to the Indians bullpen yesterday. This total is only a 9 (after opening at a 9.5) and that has made this an even better value play. The total is low because of Bieber's last two starts but Boston is likely to give him trouble here. As for Weber he truly is unproven at the MLB level as a starter and the Indians lineup presents a tough match-up with all the left-handed lumber. Last year at the AAA level in the minors Weber was hit at a .264 clip and this season in 5 starts at the AAA level opponents are hitting .271 against him. He had a good first start this season (last week) but it was against a bad Blue Jays team. The Indians have struggled at times at the plate this season but they have looked strong in this series and hold the match-up edges over Weber in this one. Rather cool evening at Fenway expected here but this total is far too low and our computer math model is calling for this one to fall within a range of 10 to 12 runs before all is said and done. The teams have already averaged 14.5 run per game in the first two games of this series. Bet the OVER in the Red Sox game in early evening action Wednesday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET

This total is only an 8.5 because both Jose Quintana and Luis Castillo are off to strong starts to this season. The result is line value in a spot like this. Yesterday's game totaled 11 runs as there were 5 homers hit. With temperatures rising to the 80 degree mark in Cincinnati today and a light breeze blowing out toward left center field at Great American Ball Park, it will be another game here that gives this venue its well-deserved reputation as playing out like a "bandbox" in the right weather conditions. The fact remains that Great American Ball Park is one of the most hitter friendly venues in the majors and both of these lineups have plenty of experience against the division rival starting pitcher that each is facing today. The Cubs Quintana has a 6.32 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. He allowed 2 homers in his most recent start against the Reds. The last time the southpaw pitched at Cincinnati he got hammered for 4 earned runs on 9 hits in 5 frames! The Reds Castillo has a 5.79 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Cubs and has walked as many as he has struck out in those 3 outings. The fact is that the Chicago lineup has proven to be a tough one for Castillo in recent outings. The over is 5-1 in Reds home games this month and Cincinnati has scored an average of 7.3 runs per game in those half-dozen home games. The Cubs are 13-3 in their last 16 games thanks in part to their lineup scoring average of 5.4 runs per game during this stretch. The over is 13-5-1 in Chicago's road games this season and the over is 9-4-1 when they are off a loss and also 9-4-1 in games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. Our computer math model is forecasting double digits in runs here and we won't hesitate in taking advantage of this low total. Bet the OVER in the Reds game in early evening action Thursday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET

How big of a difference is the jump from the minors to the majors in professional baseball? It is actually a very significant difference and that is the key reason that many guys like Corbin Martin (Astros starting pitcher today) struggle when they make that jump. To put it in proper perspective, one can even see this with looking at some statistics from Martin. In his minor league career he has allowed only 9 homers in 179 innings. However, in his only time at the major league level (in spring training this year) Martin allowed 5 homers in only 16 and 1 / 3 innings. In his MLB debut today, Martin is facing a Rangers team that has a solid .456 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching this season. That ranks Texas 7th out of all 30 MLB teams! The Rangers are also starting a right-handed pitcher today. Adrian Sampson gets the call for the road team here and he is facing a Houston teams whose .495 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching ranks them 2nd in the majors and just behind Minnesota in that category. Sampson has pitched well in his 4 relief appearances this season but he has a 6.63 ERA in his 4 appearances as a starter this season! He faces a tough task here as the Astros got to Sampson for 7 hits in just 4 and 1 / 3 innings in his start against them 3 weeks ago. Houston delivered a big win 11-4 win yesterday and the over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games. The over is also 5-2 in the Rangers last 7 games. The over is 11-4 this season when Texas faces a team with a winning record and also the over is 9-2 in day games for the Rangers this season. The over is 6-1-1 in Astros games against teams with a losing record this season and Texas also ranks among the worst bullpens in the majors based on ERA so far this season. The Rangers sticks faced some tough pitching so far in this series but take advantage of a rookie right-hander here while the Astros lineup (7.4 runs per game last 8 games) continues red hot at the plate. Bet the OVER in the Astros game in early afternoon action Sunday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox,Sunday at 2:10 PM ET

The White Sox are hitting .263 in home games this season and that ranks them 3rd in the American League! After getting drilled 15-2 yesterday, look for Chicago to deliver a little more offense today as the over is 12-3 this season in games following a White Sox loss. As for the Red Sox, a turnaround was on tap after a slow start to the season as there is simply too much talent in Boston for the slump to continue. Sure enough, Boston has now won 5 of its last 6 games and is on top of all key categories in terms of their offensive production this week. The Red Sox are leading in batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, and runs scored for this week and we look for them to wrap up the week strong against Dylan Covey. The White Sox right-hander has gone no more than 4 and 1 / 3 innings in any of his appearances in the majors or minors this season. Covey is only getting this start because of the injury to Carlos Rodon. In his MLB career, Covey is 5-22 with a 6.11 ERA! The Red Sox counter with Rick Porcello in this match-up. Though he has looked better in his last two starts, Porcello faced the struggling bats of the A's and Tigers and both those starts were at home. Now the Boston right-hander is back on the road where he is winless with an 8.99 ERA in his 3 starts this season. All 3 of those games went over the total and, per our computer math model, this one will too! The over is 12-5 this season when Chicago faces a right-handed starter. Bet the OVER in the White Sox game in early afternoon action Sunday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET

The Mariners bullpen has a 4.92 ERA which ranks them 12th out of 15 teams in the AL. The Rangers bullpen? Even worse! Texas has a 5.13 bullpen ERA and only the downtrodden Orioles pen has a higher ERA than that among AL teams. The bullpens are likely to play a key role in this one too because we don't expect either starting pitcher to last too long. Seattle starter Erik Swanson had a successful MLB starting debut against the Indians but, like so many rookie hurlers, he took a major step back in his next start. Swanson allowed 5 runs (4 earned) and gave up 2 homers (and this was at pitcher friendly Petco Park in San Diego) as he failed to get out of the 6th inning. Now Swanson goes from facing Indians and Padres lineups that rank near the bottom of the majors to facing a Rangers team that's .491 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching ranks #2 out of the 30 teams in MLB! As for Texas starter Lance Lynn, he'll be facing a Mariners team that is averaging 6 runs per game and 2 home runs per game on the young season. Lynn had a 4.77 ERA last season and has a 6.51 ERA so far this season. Last year he went 5-7 with a 6.01 ERA in his road starts. Also, in afternoon starts, Lynn went 3-5 with a 5.50 ERA last season. He has seen his better years for sure and the Mariners lineup will be in bounce back mode after scoring just 1 run yesterday. The last two times that Seattle was held to 1 run or less in their prior game they absolutely exploded in their next game (11 runs one time and 14 runs the next time). Once again in this rare situation, look for the Mariners to come up big at the plate but the Rangers have scored 5 or more runs in 11 of their last 15 games and, per our computer math model, Texas will also have a huge day at the plate. Bet the OVER in the Mariners game in late afternoon action Sunday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs, Thursday at 2:20 PM ET

It will be cool but not cold for this one at Wrigley Field as temperatures will be near 60 degrees. Also, even though the wind is blowing in it is a very light breeze. With that said, there is excellent line value here because the weather is one of the reasons this total is being held down at an 8 in the early market. The fact is that both Jon Lester and Ross Stripling can be expected to struggle here and behind them are two of the worst bullpens in the majors so far this season based on ERA. Both the Cubs pen and Dodgers pen have combined ERAs north of 5.00 so far this season! Stripling faced the Cubs twice last season and was fortunate the damage wasn't worse as Chicago got to him for 15 hits (including 2 homers) in 11 innings of work. As for Jon Lester, he is returning from a stint on the disabled list due to a hamstring injury. Those injuries can be particularly tough for a pitcher and, though he had some early season success before the injury he wasn't as dominating as his low ERA might suggest. Lester did get pounded in spring training this year and then, in his early season action, he benefited from facing the Rangers and Pirates as those teams rank near the bottom of the majors against left-handed pitching this season. In his other start he allowed 2 homers against the Braves. Now Lester faces a Dodgers team whose .339 on base percentage against lefties ranks them 9th out of all 30 teams. Also, in day games this season Los Angeles has a phenomenal .608 slugging percentage which is #1 in the majors. The Cubs .360 on base percentage in day games this season ranks them #1 in the National League! You can see why our computer math model is calling for plenty of baserunners and scoring opportunities in this game and the forecast here is for double digits in runs scored. The over is 7-3 this season when LA is off a loss, 5-2 in day games for Los Angeles, and 6-1 in Dodgers games against left-handed starters. Bet the OVER in the Cubs game in afternoon action Thursday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET

The Red Sox Rick Porcello is not only struggling more than any other Boston starter, he has been one of the worst starters in the majors. Porcello is 0-3 this season with an 11.11 ERA and 3,00 WHIP on the year. When a pitcher is allowing an average of 3 baserunners per inning it doesn't take long to get into trouble. Facing the Rays is unlikely to help Porcello. The Red Sox right-hander has allowed 9 runs (7 earned) in his last two starts at Tampa Bay. The other starting pitcher today is also likely to struggle. Tampa hands the ball to Charlie Morton and he has good numbers this season but his last two starts have been quite short and he now faces a lineup that has had plenty of success against him. Morton has a 7.82 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Red Sox and he gave up 19 hits (including 3 homers) in just 12 and 2 / 3 innings spanning these 3 outings versus Boston. Also, all these starts were recent - all having come since June of 2018. While it is true that the Boston bats have struggled early this season, they have scored 4 or more runs in 6 of their last 9 games. The Red Sox also are building confidence at the plate after scoring 6 runs yesterday and now facing a hurler that they've enjoyed plenty of success against. As for the Tampa Bay bats, they have scored 4 or more runs in 9 of their last 10 games. The Rays have averaged 6.5 runs per game during this 10 game stretch. The over is 7-2 in Tampa's last 9 games overall. The over is 7-3 in the Red Sox last 10 games that had a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. In this specific match-up, the total opened up at 8.5 and has come down to an 8 in most books this morning. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams in Tampa Bay. Bet the OVER in the Rays game in early evening action Saturday

ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON OVER: Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners, Friday at 10:10 PM ET

This is a battle of southpaws Friday night in Seattle as the Mariners Wade LeBlanc goes to battle with the Astros Wade Miley. We don't expect either pitcher to fare well in this match-up. Houston is hitting .308 against lefties this season and that ranks them #1 in the American League. The Mariners slugging percentage is an incredible .663 against left-handed hurlers this season and that ranks them #1 in the majors. The Astros bats are heating up as they've won 6 straight games and scored an average of 6 runs per game. The Seattle sticks have been red hot all season and continue to show no signs of slowing down. The Mariners rallied for the 7-6 win at Kansas City yesterday afternoon and that was their 10th victory in their last 11 games. Seattle has scored an average of 7.8 runs per game this season. Both lineups are very confident at the plate because they've been scoring plenty of runs and they've been winning. Of course that leads to the ultimate level of high confidence at the plate and neither one of these hurlers is overpowering. Miley gave up 8 hits in 6 innings in his lone road start this season. In his last start at Seattle the lefty struggled and could not complete 5 innings while allowing 3 earned runs in that short start. The way the Mariners are swinging the bats we don't expect this start to go any better. LeBlanc is facing a tough match-up here as the Astros have seen plenty of him and have been very successful against him. The southpaw made 6 appearances (4 starts) against Houston last season and compiled a 6.75 ERA and a .315 BAA. Only 1 of the Mariners 15 games this season has resulted in an under! We see every reason to believe Seattle's strong trending to the over continues tonight. Bet the OVER in the Mariners game in late night action Friday

ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON UNDER - Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET

Yesterday's game found its way over the total early as, surprisingly, both Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale had rare poor starts. However, just in time for World Series baseball...as if right on cue...a cold front rolled through Boston yesterday. It wasn't a dramatic change in temperatures but still the weather change has brought a rather bracing north wind and temperatures dropping into the 40s in the evenings at Fenway Park for these first two games. The hitters managed to get the job done yesterday, despite the cooler temps, but one shouldn't over-react to one game. In fact, now we've seen an over-reaction from the markets as this total went to an 8.5 compared to a 7.5 or 7 in Game 1. That is because the pitching match-up of David Price versus Hyun-Jin Ryu doesn't have the flashy appeal of a Kershaw / Sale match-up. However, the fact is each of these guys are very capable southpaws and each are certainly likely to pitch much better than the results seen from Kershaw and Sale yesterday. Ryu is off a poor start at Milwaukee in the NLCS but betting markets have a short-term memory and now they're focused on that when the reality is that the lefty entered that outing with a 0.89 ERA in his 5 prior starts! As for Price, the Red Sox going 14-4 in his home starts this season had a lot do with him firing mostly quality outings in Boston this season. Also, he is coming off the gem versus the Astros in the ALCS and has plenty of momentum coming into this start as a result. Look for a huge effort from both starting pitchers here and our expectation is a 2-1 or 3-2 type game that lands well short of the 8.5 that has been posted on this one. Bet the UNDER in Boston in evening action Wednesday

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals, Tuesday at 8:15 PM ET

This total was set at 9 when odds makers released it but the number has now come down to an 8.5 as of Tuesday morning. We like the value being offered here considering that there is reason to believe each of these starters will struggle. Keep in mind, even though the Cardinals have been locked into a race for a post-season berth, they have not been getting involved in pitchers duels. In fact, with last night's 6-4 loss to the Brewers flying over the total, the over is now a perfect 7-0 in the Cards last 7 games. St Louis should stay hot at the plate versus Gio Gonzalez. Though he has some good numbers since coming to the Brewers, Gonzalez has struggled on the road this season. He got rocked for 5 earned runs in 4 innings in his most recent start at St Louis. That tough outing is part of a stretch since mid-June that has seen Gonzalez allow 34 earned runs in 46 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last 9 road starts. That equates to a 6.56 ERA for the Brewers southpaw in his last 9 outings away from home. Cardinals southpaw Austin Gomber is also likely to struggle in this one. He is nearing a career high in innings pitched (majors and minors combined) and appears to be wearing down. Gomber has allowed 8 earned runs on 15 hits in 8 innings spanning his last two starts. Each of those outings went over the total and we expect another one here! The Brewers have scored 6 runs or more in 5 of their last 7 games and Milwaukee stays "locked in" at the plate tonight. Look for an easy totals winner soaring past the low number. Bet the OVER in St Louis in evening action Tuesday

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET

This total was set at 8.5 when odds makers released it but the number has now come down to an 8 as of Wednesday morning. We like the value being offered here considering that there is reason to believe each of these starters will struggle. Boston's David Price has found Yankee Stadium to be a "house of horrors" for him ever since he came to the Red Sox. The southpaw has gone 0-5 with a 10.44 ERA in his 5 starts there. In his most recent outing there he allowed 5 homers on July 1st! He is not the only pitcher likely to struggle tonight. The Yankees Luis Severino just hasn't been the same pitcher he was in the first half of the season when he was dominating the opposition. The last time he faced the Red Sox (August 3rd) he allowed 4 earned runs in less than 6 innings and Severino had more walks than strikeouts. In his last 11 starts, the Yankees right-hander has gone 3-6 with a 6.43 ERA. The over is 10-3 in Severino's 13 starts since July 1st. Also, he has made 5 home starts during that stretch and the over went a perfect 5-0! The over is also a perfect 3-0 in Price's last 3 starts at Yankee Stadium. After that pitchers' duel last night, don't be surprised when this one sees runs early and often which should lead to an easy totals winner soaring past the low number. Bet the OVER in the New York Yankees game in early evening action Wednesday

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET

The wind is blowing out again this afternoon at Wrigley Field. Yesterday's game saw 16 runs scored and we expect another high-scoring match-up this afternoon. Look for today's game to pick up right where yesterday's game left off in a big way. The starting pitching match-up here should lead to plenty of pop from both lineups. The over is 13-5-1 in Homer Bailey's 19 starts versus the Cubs in his career. Also, when he most recently faced them he allowed 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings back in May. The last time he faced them at Wrigley Field (August of last year) he also allowed 6 earned runs and that was in 5 and 2 / 3 innings. Bailey enters this start having a dreadful season (1-11) and also he is trending the wrong direction. He is 0-3 in his last 3 starts and has allowed 29 hits in 14 and 2 / 3 innings over his past 3 starts. As for the Cubs Kyle Hendricks, he is off of a strong start in terms of earned runs allowed but note that he gave up 10 hits in that 7-inning stint. Hendricks has now allowed 25 hits in the 19 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The last two times he faced the Reds (both were this season) he allowed 4 runs each time. Though neither one of those starts went over the total, only 4 of his 12 starts against Cincinnati in his career have stayed under the total. The over is 17-8 the last 25 times the Cubs have hosted the Reds. The over is 14-7 in Cincy's Sunday games this season. The Cubs are getting their sticks going again at home as they've notched at least a dozen hits in 3 of their last 4 games at Wrigley Field. Another slugfest appears likely at Wrigley Field and we also like the additional value becoming available now as the early move on this total was from 10.5 down to a 10. Bet the OVER in the Chicago Cubs game in early afternoon action Sunday

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER - Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET

The Royals Danny Duffy is in the wrong place at the wrong time. The southpaw is trying to come back from a shoulder problem. Duffy has given up 6 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Now he faces a Rays team that has notched 14 hits in each of the past two games. Behind Duffy is a Royals bullpen that is 14-28 with a 5.18 ERA this season which ranks them dead last in the majors. While the Rays pitching situation is certainly much better, this is still a total (7 runs) in an American League game that should prove to be far too low. Tampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow has certainly enjoyed some success since coming to Tampa Bay from Pittsburgh. However, his ERA with the Rays is 2 runs higher in night games compared to day games and this has been a long-term trend for him. With the Pirates this season Glasnow worked out of the bullpen and he had a 5.18 ERA in night games this season. Last year with Pittsburgh the right-hander went 1-6 with a 8.67 ERA in his 12 night game appearances (10 starts). Opponents hit .249 against him under the lights. So with the Royals sticks also contributing very well toward the low total on Thursday's match-up this one should easily fly over the total as the Rays stay hot at the plate and pound Duffy and a weak KC bullpen! Bet the OVER in Tampa Bay in early evening action Thursday

ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER - Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET

Even without Mike Trout, the Angels continue to love hitting at Texas. The Angels have scored an average of 8 runs per game in their 6 games played at Texas this season. Also, not only has Los Angeles continued to hit well in the first 3 games of this 4-game set, the Angels are 5-2 to the over in their last 7 games (all without Trout) as they've reached double digits in hits in 5 of those 7 games. They should have no trouble with the offerings of Yovani Gallardo. The right-hander has a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, Gallardo has an overall 6.39 ERA this season. This comes as no surprise as he has been on a downhill slide for years. In 2016 and 2017 combined, Gallardo went 11-18 with a 5.57 ERA! He is very hittable and the way the Angels have thrived in this ballpark he is likely to struggle this afternoon. As for Angels starter Jaime Barria, he does have strong numbers against the Rangers this season but that's because one of the two starts was in Anaheim and the one that was in Texas was in mid-April when the weather was much different and, in fact, the wind was blowing in from center at 20 miles per hour in that game. Now, in the heat of the summer and with the Rangers one of the top slugging teams in the majors when on their home field, look for much different results this afternoon. Yes, this total is a big number but, of the 6 match-ups between these teams played in Arlington this season, every single game has totaled at least 9 runs. In fact the average total runs scored has been 12.3 per game. With this pitching match-up, the fact that this is an afternoon game, and the way both teams are swinging the bats (Rangers averaging 7.4 runs per game last 7 home games) we look for these teams to easily get to a dozen runs (and then some) this afternoon. Bet the OVER in Texas in afternoon evening action Sunday

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET

This total opened up at a 9.5 in a lot of shops but then dropped to a solid 9 across the board this morning. Great value with the over here. With yesterday's 8-3 win, Cleveland is 8-2 to the over their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. They are likely to pound Detroit southpaw Blaine Hardy in this match-up as the Indians are the #1 team in the majors against left-handed pitching this season with a .273 batting average on the year. Cleveland is also the #1 offense in the majors in the month of July. The Indians are averaging 6.4 runs per game and hitting .284 this month! Though the Tigers certainly haven't been producing nearly as well as the Tribe has at the plate, Detroit had scored at least 4 runs in 5 of their 7 prior games before being held to just 3 runs in last night's loss. The Tigers did reach double digits in hits last night for the 3rd time in their last 4 games. The Tigers big issue this evening will be that Hardy is on the mound. The Detroit southpaw has given up 10 runs (7 earned) in 7 innings over his last two starts and both of those starts were at home. Behind him is a Tigers bullpen that has allowed opponents to hit .262 this season and that ranks them as one of the worst pens in the majors while the Indians bullpen (5.14 ERA and 8-16 record) also ranks as one of the worst pens in the majors. The over is 3-0 in Hardy's last 3 home starts. The over is 6-3-2 (67%) in Mike Clevinger's night starts this season. Clevinger is off of a strong start at Texas but he had allowed 28 hits over 23 innings spanning his 4 prior starts and 10 runs (9 earned) spanning the 12 innings in his 2 prior starts. The Tigers are very familiar with him and are catching him at the right time to do some damage this evening at Comerica Park. Bet the OVER in Detroit in early evening action Saturday

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Oakland A's @ Texas Rangers, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET

This total opened up at a 12 in a lot of shops but then dropped to a solid 11.5 across the board this morning. The key elements here are two starting pitchers likely to struggle and hot summer weather coupled with light winds allowing the ball to carry extremely well (as per usual) at Globe Life Park in Texas tonight. The first two games of this series have totaled 18 and 23 runs, respectively, so don't let the big number scare you here. This park plays out like a bandbox when the weather is like this and, in fact, both teams reached double digits in runs scored last night! The A's Edwin Jackson has a low ERA on the season but he has pitched in limited action and has walked 7 and struck out just 4 in his last two road starts. The Rangers Martin Perez has had an awful season and has pitched particularly poor at home. The southpaw has a 10.05 ERA in his home starts and all 3 went over the total. The Texas bullpen is also struggling as the Rangers have now allowed 9 runs or more in 4 of their last 5 games. The A's have been one of the hottest lineups in baseball and have scored at least 5 runs in 9 of their last 14 games and Oakland scored at least 6 runs in 8 of those 9 strong games at the plate. Only 19 of the A's 54 road games this season have stayed under the total. The Rangers are 5-1 to the over their last 6 games. We look for these over trends to continue in a BIG way this evening! Bet the OVER in Texas in evening action Wednesday

ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET

This total opened up at a 12 but then dropped to a solid 11.5 across the board this morning. The key elements here are two starting pitchers likely to struggle and a wind shift that is taking place at Coors Field tonight very soon after first pitch in this game! The wind is likely to be out of the east at first pitch but is shifting from east to southeast very quickly and this means it will be blowing out at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Rockies right-hander German Marquez is off of back to back solid starts but those were on the road. Pitching at home has been a nightmare for him this season as Marquez is 2-5 with a 7.93 ERA and he allows an average of 2 baserunners per inning when on his home mound. It is no wonder that he is in trouble early and often there. Now he faces a Diamondbacks team that has hammered for 21 hits in 12 and 2 / 3 innings over his last three starts versus Arizona. Included in those hits were 3 homers when he hosted the Dbacks just last month! More of the same expected here and the Rockies will also be crushing the ball tonight. Colorado will take advantage of Shelby Miller whom just hasn't been the same in his attempt to return from Tommy John surgery. The right-hander has gone 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in his 3 starts since his return. Also, his history versus the Rockies is not a good sign for him in terms of what to expect tonight. The right-hander is 2-4 with a 6.30 ERA versus Colorado. Most recently he has allowed 13 earned runs on 20 hits in just 11 innings spanning his last two starts versus the Rockies. This match-up truly has "slug-fest" written all "over" it and the over is 18-7 in Diamondbacks road games this season where Arizona's money line ranges from -125 to +125. We look for the over to improve to 10-4 in Arizona's Wednesday games this season. Bet the OVER in Colorado in evening action Wednesday.

ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals, Sunday at 2:15 PM ET

The Red Sox have already scored 25 runs in the first two games of this series. Overall they've scored 10 runs or more in 4 of their last 7 games. The over is 5-2 in Boston's last 7 games and now they get to take on a rookie right-hander, Heath Fillmyer, making his first ever MLB start. The 24-year old has good numbers so far with the Royals but he has made just 3 relief appearances out of the bullpen. There is a big difference between coming out of the bullpen and making your first ever MLB start against one of the best lineups in baseball. The Red Sox sticks are red hot right now and note that Fillmyer's AAA stats this season are not impressive at all. In the minors this season Fillmyer made 13 starts and compiled a 5.75 ERA as opponents hit .303 against him! This is a tough assigment for the rookie and, after a likely early Fillmyer exit in this one, the American League's worst bullpen (5.28 ERA) will get called upon to get hammered. Just as they have been crushed in each of the first two games, the Kansas City bullpen gives it up again Sunday afternoon. While Boston's lineup should definitely stay red hot here, look for the Royals lineup to join the party too! KC's hitters will be taking on Rick Porcello. Though the veteran right-hander has solid numbers this season, he has allowed a pair of homers in each of his last two starts. Also, in Porcello's last 3 starts versus the Royals (including 2 here at Kauffman Stadium), he has compiled a 7.41 ERA and allowed 5 homers in 17 innings. He particularly struggled at Kansas City with 10 earned runs allowed in 10 innings! The over is 4-1 in Kansas City's last 5 games. Also, the Royals are a long-term 56-33 to the over (including 8-1 in recent seasons) when they are a home dog of +175 or more. Bet the OVER in Kansas City in early afternoon action Sunday.

ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 1:05 PM ET

Yesterday's game was a low-scoring battle as the Blue Jays held on for the 3-2 win. After that pitchers duel many will be looking for a similar result Saturday but the key to the outcome in this one is a pitching match-up that is conducive to big runs! Toronto is 5-1-1 to the over in Sam Gaviglio's 7 starts this season. The Jays right-hander has a 7.50 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in his last 3 starts and has averaged only 4 innings per start in these outings. The Tigers counter with a struggling hurler of their own in this one. Matt Boyd gets the call for Detroit here. The southpaw has been roughed up to the tune of 11 earned runs on 14 hits and 5 walks in a total of just 7 innings spanning his last two starts. Boyd also will feel the pressure of going against his former team. He did face the Blue Jays earlier this season and allowed 4 earned runs in 7 innings but that start was at Comerica Park. When he has actually pitched in Toronto, check out these numbers in his career starts at the Rogers Centre. As a member of the Jays in 2015 he went 0-2 with a 14.85 ERA in his two starts there. Since leaving Toronto and going to Detroit, as a member of the Tigers Boyd has allowed 6 earned runs in 11 innings at Rogers Centre. He has walked 8 in those 11 innings and, just as when he was also a member of the Blue Jays, he just does not appear comfortable on the mound in Toronto. You can see why we are predicting both starters to struggle badly here! Also supporting this play: the Jays are 20-11 to the over in day games this season. Also, as home favorite in a range of -125 to -175 this season, the Blue Jays are 5-2 to the over. Bet the OVER in Toronto in early afternoon action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels, Sunday at 4:07 PM ET

Sam Gaviglio has struggled on the road since coming up to the majors. In his 8 road starts at the MLB level he has allowed 14 homers! Last year with the Mariners Gaviglio compiled a 5.58 ERA on the road. This season with the Blue Jays, Gaviglio has compiled a 7.05 ERA on the road. All 3 of his road starts this season have gone over the total and we fully expect another one here. The Blue Jays right-hander enters this start in poor current form as he has given up 7 earned runs on 13 hits and 4 walks in the 7 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last two starts. The Angels have plenty of slugging power and the ball carries better in day games in Anaheim and the weather forecast looks favorable for the hitters in this one. The Blue Jays are 18-11 to the over in day games this season and the over is 7-3 in Toronto's Sunday games this year. Although Los Angeles has recorded back to back unders they previously had gone 10 straight games with an under! The fact that a converted reliever, Felix Pena, is making just his 2nd career start is another key factor with this play. Pena has a 5.04 ERA at the MLB level in his 39 career appearances and only 1 of those was a start. That was against the Cardinals earlier this week and Pena hit a batter and walked 3 in his 4 innings of work. He has been hit at a .313 clip this this season by left-handed bats and he'll see a good number of those in facing the Blue Jays this afternoon. Also, Pena is unlikely to work deep into this game (only went 4 innings in his first start) and the Angels bullpen (and Jays bullpen for that matter) both rank in the bottom third of the majors in terms of batting average against. Last night's big 3-run homer for Toronto with two outs in the top of the 9th was a big momentum-building hit for the Blue Jays heading into Sunday's series finale. The Jays stay hot at the plate here but the Angels also should enjoy a huge day as Gaviglio's long-term road struggles continue. Bet the OVER in the Los Angeles Angels game in late afternoon action Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland A's, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

With yesterday's game going over the total, the Angels have not an under in any of their last 6 games as Los Angeles has gone 5-0-1 to the over. Is a perfect 5-0 run to the over for the A's after the 6-4 win Saturday. Temperatures Sunday afternoon will be near 70 degrees in Oakland and the wind will be blowing out at a good clip at Oakland Coliseum. The Angels Andrew Heaney had a good start versus the A's last season but that was at home. This start is on the road and Heaney has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last two road starts. The LA southpaw is winless on the season in his starts away from home and has produced a 5.68 ERA on the road this year. The Athletics will have Daniel Mengden on the mound and that should lead to plenty of runs for the road team in this one. The A's right-hander is 0-2 with a 13.49 ERA in his two career starts versus the Angels and that includes a start earlier this season. Like Heaney, Mengden enters this start in poor current form as he has allowed 6 earned runs in each of his last two starts even though he didn't last 5 innings in either start! Mengden allowed 6 homers in those two starts and Heaney is coming off of a start where he allowed 3 homers! With the trending of these two lineups as well as these two starting pitchers, we're happy to take advantage of the low total posted on this one. Bet the OVER in Oakland for a TOP PLAY in afternoon action Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET

The Rays have scored at least 4 runs in 7 of their last 9 home games. The Jays have scored at least 4 runs in 5 straight games overall and in 4 of their last 5 road games. What is the significance in this? Getting each team to 4 runs in this game means we have a guaranteed winner as the game has to finish with a least 9 runs. This total opened up at an 8 and we would be surprised to see it climb any higher than an 8.5 as the day goes on. Either way, this situation demands our highest rating. Jaime Garcia is coming off of a strong start for the Blue Jays but that is just the 2nd quality start he has had in his past 10 starts and that outing was at home. On the road this season Garcia has gone 1-3 with an ugly 8.20 ERA. Tampa Bay has gone 5-1 to the over in their last 6 games and the Rays have averaged 9.2 hits per game their last 5 games. Toronto is 19-9-3 to the over this season. The Blue Jays, although they were held to 4 runs last night, have averaged scoring 6.2 runs per game their last 5 games. Ryne Stanek gets the start for the Rays which means this will be a bullpen day for the Rays because he has averaged only 1 inning per outing this season. In fact, in his 34 MLB appearances (3 starts) he has never pitching more than 2 innings in an outing. Tampa Bay's "bullpen strategy" started off going quite well but the effectiveness has faded in recent weeks and they're likely going to need 7 innings of bullpen in this game. Prior to yesterday's win, the Rays had lost 9 of their 10 prior games. Tampa Bay has allowed nearly 5 runs per game their last 11 games and the Blue Jays have seen plenty of the Rays relievers this season as the TB starters have averaged only 5 innings per start in the 4 games between these clubs this season. That repetition pays off here and the Toronto over improves to 8-1 in their last 9 road games. Bet the OVER in Tampa Bay for a TOP PLAY in early evening action Tuesday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres, Saturday at 8:40 PM ET

Neither one of these lineups is known for being an offensive juggernaut but sharp money has moved this total from an 8 to an 8.5 this morning. The fact is that there are a number of key factors favoring the over. The Reds Matt Harvey is off of a poor start at Colorado and that is the last thing he needed. His confidence has been shaky already as it is because he had a poor finish to his time in New York with the Mets and now, since coming to the Reds, he has allowed 7 earned runs on 16 hits (including 3 homers) in just 9 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last two road starts. The Padres did struggle in yesterday's 7-2 loss but they entered the game having won 3 straight games and averaging 6.7 runs per game during this 3-0 run in home games. The over is 4-1 in 5 games on this San Diego homestand and another one looks likely here. Eric Lauer gets the starts for the Padres and the Reds last two games against southpaw starters saw Cincinnati amass 13 runs on 23 hits. Lauer enters this start off of another rough home outing versus Miami. He now has a 9.29 ERA in home games this season and the left-hander has a 7.67 ERA overall on the year. The over is a long-term 75-48 when a Reds game has a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is 8-2 this season when Cincinnati is on the road in game with a money line between -125 and +125. San Diego is a long-term 31-19 to the over in June games (nice weather in San Diego today) and the Padres are 6-2 to the over this season in their Saturday games. We're taking advantage of the low total that was set in this game as both of these starting pitchers are likely to struggle in this one. Bet the OVER in San Diego for a TOP PLAY in evening action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET

It is amazing what one game can do for the confidence of lineup and Arizona, a solid team overall, will have their swagger back today. After enduring a stretch of recent struggles, the Diamondbacks got back on track with a huge night at the plate yesterday. Arizona won 7-1 yesterday and now, in an afternoon game with the wind blowing out, look for another over today. The A's Daniel Mengden is off of a strong start in the books and so too is Clay Buchholz. However the Diamondbacks right-hander was not overly impressive at AAA Reno before being called up to face the Mets. Buchholz was fortunate in that many of his outs were through the air including well-hit balls but he escaped damage. Mengden had a similar outing in his most recent start. Many outs through the air and he entered that start having allowed a .265 batting average to hitters on the season. In other words, Mengden's results (especially including the recent lack of strikeouts) have been quite fortunate. Look for the Diamondbacks to be on the attack early and often in this one after yesterday's explosion at the plate. As for the A's, they'll bounce back at the plate after scoring just 1 run yesterday. Buchholz's "stuff" is simply not that sharp and the Oakland lineup will be much tougher against him than the struggling Mets lineup was. The Athletics have a .428 slugging percentage versus right-handed pitching this season and that has them tied for 3rd in the majors! Mengden has made 10 starts this season and only 3 have resulted in an under. The very first totals posted on this game were 9s and it quickly dropped to 8s across the board. It has now settled in at 8.5 in all books but the odds makers had it right in the first place and we see at least 9 runs in this one and, more likely, double digits being scored! Look for the over to move to 16-9 in Arizona's road games this season and 6-2 in A's Saturday games on the year! Bet the OVER in Oakland for a TOP PLAY in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Philadelphia Phillies @ St Louis Cardinals, Thursday at 7:15 PM ET

Vincent Velasquez is off of a fantastic start for Philadelphia in his most recent outing as he bounced back from early inning struggles and ended up registering 12 strikeouts in the game. However, throughout his tenure with the Phillies Velasquez has been known for his inconsistency as he often follows up a strong start with a poor one. This is particularly true when he is off of a huge strikeout game. Keep in mind, a big game with K's also means a lot of pitches thrown and, sure enough, Velasquez threw more than 100 pitches in what became the 5th start of his MLB career in which he struck out 10 or more batters. That is noteworthy because he has never produced a quality start in his career when off of a game where he registered double digits in strikeouts. The numbers for Velasquez in those 4 starts are as follows: 19 and 1 / 3 innings, 18 runs, 15 earned runs, 26 hits, 8 homers! That is an average of 2 homers per start even though his average start was less than 5 innings. Also, the hard-throwing righty has compiled a 6.98 ERA in those 4 starts. We expect similar results today but we do expect Velasquez to get plenty of run support as his Phillies teammates take advantage of facing Luke Weaver. The Cardinals right-hander is off of a solid start in his most recent outing but he faced the weak Padres lineup. Now he faces a Phillies lineup that has been on a strong surge and Weaver, prior to shutting down San Diego over 5 innings, had compiled a 9.00 ERA in his 4 prior starts. He allowed at least 4 earned runs in all 4 starts. Now Weaver faces a Philly team that has won 6 of their last 7 and averaged scoring 6.7 runs per game in those 6 wins. That has this one set to be a back and forth slugfest with temperatures in the mid-80s for this one as an added bonus. Bet the OVER in St Louis for a TOP PLAY in early evening action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

The Indians are facing southpaw Francisco Liriano in this one. The #1 offense in the American League versus left-handed pitching so far this season is Cleveland with a .445 slugging percentage! The last two times Liriano has faced the Tribe he has allowed 9 earned runs in just 8 innings. Also, in those two starts he walked 6 while striking out just 4. The Indians are 9-3-1 to the over this month. Even with yesterday's 6-3 loss, Cleveland is scoring an average of 7 runs per game this month. The Tigers are 5-1-1 to the over in their last 7 games and have averaged scoring 5.3 runs per game during this stretch. In the month of May Detroit has been one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors with a .285 batting average and Cleveland is right behind them with a .282 mark. On Tuesday, the Tigers will take advantage of facing a struggling Josh Tomlin. The Indians right-hander has allowed 9 homers in his last 3 starts! Allowing an average of 3 homers per start certainly gets a pitcher into trouble in very little time. Not only are both starting pitchers likely to struggle here but the bullpen numbers offer further support for the expectation of a slugfest here. The Tigers pen is 6-12 with a 4.45 ERA and has blown 10 of 19 save opportunities! The Indians pen is 3-10 with a 5.45 ERA. We expect runs early, often, and throughout this game and you can see why! Bet the OVER in Detroit for a TOP PLAY in early evening action Tuesday.