#951/952 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs, Friday at 2:20 PM ET - The Rockies are expected to start Noah Davis but whether he starts or whatever opener Colorado uses, we are not overly concerned with the pitching match-up here and will go action on pitchers.  That's because the Rockies bullpen has been one of the worst in the league this season and the Cubs bullpen has also had some recent struggles.  As for Davis, he has a 9.97 ERA in his 7 MLB appearances (4 starts) in his young career.  The Cubs are expected to go with Jameson Taillon as their starter here.  He is 1-7 with a 6.86 ERA in his day game appearances this season.  Day games at Wrigley Field, even when the wind is more side to side rather than blowing out, do tend to be higher scoring and we like the pattern for the Cubs entering this one as well.  Coming off an 8-6 loss to the Pirates yesterday, Chicago is mired in a 1-7 slump but 7 of the 8 games have totaled at least 10 runs!  The Cubs are 2-2 last 4 home games and have averaged scoring 8 runs in that stretch.   However, Chicago also has allowed an average of 7 runs per game over the last 8 games.  The Rockies bats struggled some in their recent series at San Diego but that park is not exactly the most hitter-friendly in the league and the Padres have some tough pitchers.  Before a quiet final two games in that series, the Rockies had scored an average of 7 runs in a solid 5-2 stretch over their 7 games before the two duds.  Look for their bats to wake up again after yesterday's off-day and now playing in a hitter-friendly venue!  Our computer math models are expecting this one to finish with double digits in runs in most projections. Over is the call in this early afternoon match-up Friday.

#953/954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 or 9 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Rather low total considering the strength of these two lineups and the way yesterday's double-header played out. However, this one will play out like a playoff game and is set up to be a pitchers duel. Based on bullpen ERA the Phillies are ranked 4th in the National League and the Braves are ranked 1st in the National League. As for the starting pitchers here, the Braves Max Fried is 7-1 with a 2.70 ERA this season and he has allowed just 10 earned runs in his last 5 starts. He has been dominant. As for the Phillies Zack Wheeler, he has a 2.60 ERA and has held hitters to a .185 batting average - these stats in his 10 starts since the All-Star break. Wheeler is happy to be at home for this start as 7 of his last 9 starts have been on the road. Even in that road-heavy stretch, Wheeler has allowed only 16 earned runs in those 9 starts. Both pitchers have been dominating the 2nd half of the MLB season and, as the old adage goes, it is very true that good pitching tops good hitting! Possible playoff preview here and this one will be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 6 to 7 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one.

#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves, Saturday at 7:20 PM ET - Early on it looked like Charlie Morton might start this one for the Braves. Even if he did he is coming off a tough outing and more of the same would be likely here. However, it now looks like Dylan Dodd will get the start for the Braves. He has struggled in his limited major league action in this, his rookie season. Dodd also has struggled in the minors badly this season. The point is that no matter who starts here we like this over. The Pirates will take advantage of facing less-than-stellar pitching and this Braves offense remains the most dangerous in the majors. The Braves won big again yesterday and they are 12-4 last 16 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch.  Pittsburgh, believe it not, had won 7 of 9 games and scored an average of 5 runs per game in their 9 games preceding yesterday's defeat. The Pirates should enjoy some success once again at the plate in this one as they get right back on track. However, the Braves are not going to stop hitting and the projected starter for Pittsburgh here is Johan Oviedo.  Though he has been a little better of late, he is still 8-14 with a 4.27 ERA this season and this is the best team in baseball that he must face today on Saturday.  Our computer math models are expecting this one to finish with more than a dozen runs in most projections. Over is the call in this early evening match-up Saturday.

#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 11 Runs – San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - The wind is expected to be blowing out at a good clip here at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field for this one on a very hot September day in Chicago. That is actually leading to a big posted total here but we believe it could easily be much higher when you consider how crazy games can get at Wrigley Field when weather conditions are like this! The Cubs are expected to start Kyle Hendricks in this one. He is 2-4 in home starts and opponents hitting .274 against him at Wrigley Field. Hendricks is 1-5 in night games with a 4.18 ERA this season. The Giants are expected to start Ryan Walker here but he is really just an opener for this one and the San Francisco bullpen will be susceptible here. The Cubs are one of the top hitting clubs in the majors since the All-Star Break (only the Braves have scored more runs) and have scored an average of 6 runs per game in the last 49 games! San Francisco should also score well here. SF has been at the other end of the spectrum (compared to Chicago) in terms of scoring runs of late but they have faced some tough pitching. Now they go from facing Steele (16-3, 2.55 ERA) to facing a guy (Hendricks) who has allowed 37 hits in 33 innings in his 6 home starts since the All-Star Break. The Giants, taking advantage of very hitter-friendly conditions at Wrigley for this one, should have no problems with the offerings of Hendricks in this one and Chicago should stay hot at the plate and score a pile of runs as well. Our computer math models are expecting this one to finish with more than a dozen runs in most projections. Over is the call in this early evening match-up Tuesday.

#907/908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - Low total but this one will play out like a playoff game and also is set up to be a pitchers duel. These two teams have identical records and this is a critical game entering the final month of the season. The Brewers are at the top of the Central Division but the Cubs and Reds not too far behind. The Phillies are leading the Wild Card race but have to be concerned also with Cubs and Reds as well as the Giants and Diamondbacks. So this game already will have a playoff feel to it with both teams at 74-59 on the season. Neither team was in action yesterday so the bullpens are in great shape entering this game off an off-day. Based on bullpen ERA the Phillies are ranked 4th in the National League and the Brewers are ranked 2nd in the National League. As for the starting pitchers here, the Brewers Freddy Peralta went 5-0 in August and Milwaukee is 6-0 in his last 6 starts and he has allowed just 7 earned runs TOTAL in those 6 starts. He has been dominant. As for the Phillies Zack Wheeler, he has a 2.68 ERA and has held hitters to a .194 batting average - these stats in his 8 starts since the All-Star break. Both pitchers have been dominating the 2nd half of the MLB season and, as the old adage goes, it is very true that good pitching tops good hitting! Possible playoff preview here and this one will be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one.

#971/972 ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - The Twins have won 7 of last 9 home games and have allowed an average of only 3.3 runs in these 9 games. The Rangers have lost 7 straight games and Texas has scored just 3.1 runs on average in these last 7 games. That said, Texas is likely to struggle again at the plate here as Sonny Gray has held hitters to a .191 batting average in his 4 August starts plus he has a home ERA that is below 3.00 in the last two seasons combined here in Minnesota! The Twins also are likely to struggle at the plate in this one. Minnesota will be facing Dane Dunning and the Rangers right-hander is 9-5 with a 3.19 ERA this season! He has a 2.98 ERA in his road appearances this season. Dunning has struck out 33 in his 25.2 innings this month and has held hitters to a .224 batting average. The Rangers have a rather high bullpen ERA but their WHIP is only 1.24 which ranks 5th in the majors and shows that Texas has some tough pitchers in their bullpen. The Rangers bullpen is certainly better than the ERA suggests and note that the Minnesota bullpen WHIP is also solid at 1.28 and that ranks 12th out of 30 teams in the majors. North wind expected for this one so the wind likely to be blowing in from left-center field which also helps the cause in this one. Our computer math model projecting 6 to 7 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one.

#925/926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Kansas City Royals @ Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET - The wind is NOT expected to be blowing out here at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field for this one. That is actually helping to keep this posted total lower than it should be when you consider the way these two teams have been trending of late as well as the starting pitching match-up here. The Cubs are expected to start Kyle Hendricks in this one. He has a 7.20 ERA in the month of August and is 1-4 with a 5.36 ERA in home games this season! The Royals are expected to start Jordan Lyles here and he is having a very tough season. Lyles is 2-7 with a 7.19 ERA in road games this season. In day games this season, the right-hander is 1-7 with an 8.73 ERA this year. Lyles has been showing no real signs of any improvement lately and the Cubs are sure to make him pay as they are one of the top hitting clubs in the majors over the last 30 days and also have scored an average of 6 runs per game in the last 32 games! The Royals have one of the worst bullpens in baseball so that also helps the cause here. Kansas City should also score well here. KC has seen 7 of last 8 games total at least 9 runs. These 8 games have averaged 12 runs and the Royals have scored an average of 6 runs during this stretch. They should have no problems with the offerings of Hendricks in this one either considering his numbers at home and in his recent action. Yesterday's game reached double digits in runs even though KC went 2 for 15 with runners in scoring position. Look for a better cash-in rate with the run-scoring opportunities in this one and it should reach at least ten runs and our computer math models are expecting it to finish closer to a dozen runs in most projections. Over is the call in this early afternoon match-up Sunday.

#921/922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Kansas City Royals @ Chicago Cubs, Friday at 2:20 PM ET - The wind is NOT expected to be blowing out here. That is actually helping to keep this total lower than it should be when you consider the way these two teams have been trending of late as well as the starting pitching match-up here. The Cubs are expected to start Jameson Taillon in this one. He has a 6.17 ERA in home games this season and is 1-5 with an 8.91 ERA in day games this year! The Royals are expected to start Cole Ragans and the 25 year old has made only 13 starts in his MLB career so he is still getting adjusted to starting at this level. That was evident in his most recent outing. Even though he was at home, Ragans gave up 6 hits and 4 walks in  5 innings for an average of 2 baserunners per inning. The Cubs are sure to make him pay for a performance like that as they one of the top hitting clubs in the majors over the last 30 days and also have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in the last 30 games! The Royals have one of the worst bullpens in baseball so that also helps the cause here. Kansas City should also score well here. KC has seen 6 straight games total at least 9 runs.  These 6 games have averaged 13.5 runs and the Royals have scored an average of 6.7 runs during this stretch. They should have no problems with the offerings of Taillon in this one either considering his numbers at home and in day games.  Over is the call in this early afternoon match-up Friday.

#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10.5 Runs – Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - Both these pitchers have struggled often this season. Expected starters are Patrick Corbin for the Nationals and Graham Ashcraft for the Reds. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as plenty of signs are pointing to the over here including the fact that the Cincinnati bullpen has a WHIP that ranks them 23rd in the majors and the Washington bullpen has an ERA that ranks them 29th in the majors. The Nationals have won 8 of 13 games and have scored an average of 5 runs per game during this stretch. Looking at their last 19 road games, 12 of them have totaled at least 11 runs and these 19 games have averaged 11.5 runs so do not let this big total at 10.5 keep you away! Especially on a warm evening in Cincinnati, these are the type of conditions in this hitter-friendly ballpark that produce big run totals! As for those expected starters, Corbin has a 5.43 ERA on the road and a 6.39 ERA in night games this season and opponents are hitting over .300 against him just like last season! Ashcraft has a lower ERA recently but he has been fortunate as his strikeout numbers are down and he is still giving up quite a few hits too. Overall this season Ashcraft has struggled and at home he is 3-6 with a 6.17 ERA this season. He faced the Nationals once this season and only allowed 1 earned run but he had just 2 strikeouts while walking 3 batters, hitting one, and allowing 7 hits. So Ashcraft allowed 11 baserunners in 6 innings and was very fortunate to work out of numerous jams. Ashcraft will not be so fortunate in this go around and the Nationals trending toward high-scoring road games continues. Helping the cause is the fact the Reds are back home where they have scored 38 runs in last 6 games. Also, though they are off a 5-3 road loss yesterday, Cincinnati had scored 30 runs in the 4 games leading into that one. We are going to challenge these starters and these bullpens to turn things around here and we expect a successful challenge on our part and this game gets to at least a dozen runs. Over is the call in this early evening match-up Friday.

#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, Thursday at 8:05 PM ET - Expected starters are Luke Weaver for the Reds and Jameson Taillon for the Cubs. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the weather is expected to favor an over with warm temperatures again and the wind direction being east or southeast at Wrigley Field for this one. Taking a look at ERA, the Cincinnati bullpen is ranked 17th and the Chicago bullpen is ranked 15th in the majors with each club having about a 4.00 ERA on the season. So the pens are not horrible but they are not great either. Yesterday's 16-6 game followed Tuesday's 20-9 game and we look for the bats to stay hot in this one. The Cubs are 12-3 their last 15 so confidence is growing for this team as they finally are building a longer winning stretch. With yesterday's high-scoring win included, the Cubs are scoring an average of about 7.5 runs per game in their 18 games since the All-Star Break. The Reds have won 9 of last 14 games and have averaged 5.3 runs scored per game in last 13 games. Chicago's Jameson Taillon is coming off a solid July but he continues to get hit hard at home. This season, in home starts, Taillon is 2-4 with a 6.43 ERA and opponents hitting .317 against him when he is on his home mound! Cincinnati's Luke Weaver is having another rough season and he is getting hit at a .306 clip this season after an opponents batting average of .335 last season! His struggles are highly likely to continue here as the Cubs are a confident bunch (to say the least!) at the plate right now. That coupled with the way the Cubs pitching is likely to go tonight means the Reds should answer Chicago run for run in this one as well. Over is the call in this one Thursday evening.

#907/908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET - Expected starters are Brandon Williamson for the Reds and Drew Smyly for the Cubs. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the weather is expected to favor an over with warm temperatures and a south wind blowing out at Wrigley Field for this one. Taking a look at ERA, the Cincinnati bullpen is ranked 15th and the Chicago bullpen is ranked 16th in the majors with each club having about a 4.00 ERA on the season. So the pens are not horrible but they are not great either.  Yesterday's 20-9 game is a sign of things to come here as the bats stay hot in this one.  The Cubs are 11-3 their last 14 so confidence is growing for this team as they finally are building a longer winning stretch. With yesterday's high-scoring win included, the Cubs are scoring an average of 7 runs per game in their 18 games since the All-Star Break.  The Reds have won 9 of last 13 games and have averaged 5.3 runs scored per game in last dozen games. Chicago's Drew Smyly is coming off a rough July and this followed a rough June too! He was 1-2 with a 6.65 ERA last month after going 2-3 with a 5.81 ERA in his 5 starts the prior month! Cincinnati's Williamson has been pitching a little better of late.  However, Williamson has struggled in evening games this season (5.19 ERA in 10 starts) and we expect that to continue here as the Cubs are a confident bunch (to say the least!) at the plate right now. That coupled with the way the Cubs pitching is likely to go tonight means the Reds answer Chicago run for run in this one as well. Over is the call in this one Wednesday evening.

#977/978 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – New York Mets at Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - Expected starters are Zack Greinke for the Royals and Jose Quintana for the Twins. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus both the Mets and the Royals bullpens help the cause. Taking a look at ERA, the Kansas City bullpen is ranked next to last in the AL so far this season with a 5.16 ERA. The Mets bullpen is not ranked too much higher as they are 18th in the majors with a 4.11 ERA this season. The Royals are off a 2-1 win and that was their 3rd straight win so confidence is growing for this team as they finally are building a longer win streak. Prior to that low-scoring win, 3 straight KC games had totaled at least 11 runs! The Mets have won 8 of last 13 games and have averaged 5 runs scored per game in last dozen games. Kansas City's Zack Greinke is coming off a rough July and this followed a rough June too! He was 0-3 with a 7.53 ERA last month after going 0-3 with a 7.56 ERA in his 5 starts the prior month! New York's Quintana is trying to return to form but he is still working his way back from a rib injury he suffered back in March and he has been hit at a .293 batting average in his first two starts this season which both were last month in July. Quintana has struggled on the road in recent seasons and we expect that to continue here as the Royals are a confident bunch at the plate right now. That coupled with the way the Royals pitching is likely to go tonight means the Mets answer KC run for run in this one as well. Over is the call in this one Tuesday evening.

#969/970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 10 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 4:07 PM ET - Yesterday's game was 3-3 entering the 8th inning before a wild finish that saw the Dodgers ultimately prevail 8-7 in 10 innings. That crazy finish is helping lead to line value here as 10 is an awfully big total for this game at Dodger Stadium Wednesday afternoon. Yusei Kikuchi is projected to start for the Blue Jays here and he appears to be back on track after the All Star break. Kikuchi has given up only 1 earned run in 10 innings over his two starts since the break. Remember this is following a month of June in which he had a 2.28 ERA over his 5 starts for the month. Consider his tough pair of outings that occurred just before the All Star break absolutely an aberration. Tony Gonsolin has some interesting stats for the Dodgers of late and we feel it is leading to line value here. Though some of his ERA numbers have been up of late, this is still a guy who has struck out 38 over his last 42 innings. Gonsolin has given up only 4 hits in 10 innings over his two starts since the break. His batting average against is only .194 this season and this is the same pitcher who is 31-9 in his career with a .185 batting average against. Don't be surprised if we see a pitchers duel develop in this one. Remember we talked about yesterday's game being 3-3 entering the 8th and now we remind you that Monday's series opener was 2-2 entering the 8th before that one ended up a 6-3 Blue Jays win in 11 innings. This total has been driven up too high and the pitching will be the story in Wednesday's series finale. We are going strong with the Under in this one.

#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - Both these pitchers have struggled often this season. Expected starters are Trevor Williams for the Nationals and Austin Gomber for the Rockies. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the Rockies have won 6 of 9 games since the all-star break and have scored 5 runs per game in those 9 contests. Colorado got the 10-6 win here at Washington yesterday and the Nationals have gone 7-5 last dozen games and averaged scoring 6 runs per game in those 12 games. Both bullpens have had struggles this season and that was the case for both clubs again yesterday!  After ugly performances in the late innings from each pen yesterday, take a look at their updated numbers here.  The Rockies 4.65 bullpen ERA and Nationals 5.50 bullpen ERA ranks them as the bottom two bullpens in the National League this season!  As for those expected starters, Williams has allowed 29 hits and 13 earned runs in 22.2 innings over his last five starts.  Gomber has a 6.18 ERA this season.  He faced the Nationals once this season and allowed 5 earned runs in under 5 innings of work.  We know what you are thinking...that was at Coors Field so it deserves an asterisk next to the performance.  However, the last time he faced the Nats in DC was in late May of last season and he allowed 8 earned runs on 7 hits and 3 walks in a start that lasted only 1.1 innings!  The total on this game is relatively low considering the way these two lineups have been producing as we noted above.  We are going to challenge these starters and these bullpens to turn things around here. Over is the call this evening in our nation's capital.

#917/918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins, Wednesday at 7:40 PM ET - Expected starters are Alec Marsh for the Royals and Pablo Lopez for the Twins. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the Royals bullpen helps the cause. Taking a look at ERA, the Kansas City bullpen is ranked next to last in the AL so far this season with a 5.06 ERA. This total has dropped from a 9 to an 8.5 which is an excellent value and set-ups don't get much better than this.  The Royals 8 of last 10 road games have totaled double digits in runs and we only need 9 runs to be a winner here.  The Twins 6 of last 7 home games have totaled at least 9 runs.  Kansas City's Marsh has made only 1 MLB start and he allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings and was hit hard plus had issues with his command.  Looking at his minor league career stats this should not come as a surprise.  Marsh is 8-23 with a 5.72 ERA in his minor league career!  Now he faces a red hot Twins lineup.  The hosts should score very well but we look for plenty of success from the road dog here too.  That's because Minnesota's Lopez has struggled at home this season.  He has been great on the road but has a 5.94 ERA in his home outings.  Also, this will be the 3rd time this season he is facing the Royals so they are very familiar with him.  Also, the most recent time was in Minneapolis and KC got to him for 6 runs in 6 innings in that late April outing.  Kansas City has scored an average of 5 runs per game over the last 6 games.  The Twins have won 4 straight home games and in those victories they have averaged 7 runs scored per win!  Over is the call in this one Wednesday evening.  

#973/974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros, Tuesday at 4:10 PM ET - Expected starters are Kyle Freeland for the Rockies and Brandon Bielak for the Astros. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the Rockies bullpen helps the cause. Taking a look at ERA, the Colorado bullpen is ranked dead last in the NL so far this season. The big total might seem a little scary but set-ups don't get much better than this.  The Rockies most recent game totaled 23 runs Sunday.  The Astros most recent game totaled 23 runs yesterday.  Colorado's Freeland has allowed 16 earned runs in 14.1 innings in his 3 most recent starts. The Astros Bielak has struggled so much that his most recent start was in the minors.  Now he is back at the MLB level but has not started in awhile.  Bielak has allowed 12 earned runs on 24 hits in 16.2 innings over his last 3 MLB starts. 9 of the last 15 Astros games have totaled at least 11 runs!  Houston has scored an average of 7 runs per game over the last 11 games.  9 of the last 14 Rockies games have totaled at least 11 runs!  Colorado has scored an average of 6 runs in the last 5 games.  Over is the call in this one Tuesday afternoon.

#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 11 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 5:10 PM ET - Both these starting pitchers have struggled this season. Expected starters are Graham Ashcraft for Cincinnati and Seth Lugo for the Padres. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as both teams off a stretch of high-scoring games plus match-ups at Great American Ballpark continue to trend toward big runs. Also, the Reds bullpen has an ERA that ranks them in the middle of the pack this season. Recently, neither pen has been special. The Reds last 17 home games have averaged totaling 11 runs apiece with and 11 of last 19 home games totaling at least 11 runs. This is a hitter-friendly ballpark and the Padres are ready for a breakout game at the plate after a tough little stretch at the plate following a run in which they won 9 of 15 games and averaged scoring 6 runs per game. San Diego is expected to have Lugo on the mound and he has allowed a .275 batting average this season. As for Reds starter Ashcraft, he has allowed 47 earned runs in just 33 innings over his last 8 starts this season! The Reds are scoring an average of 5 runs per game when at home this season but they also are giving up 5.2 runs per game on the year and the Padres can score well here against Ashcraft and a suspect bullpen. Cincinnati has scored an average of 7 runs per game last 11 games. Over is the call in this one early Friday evening.

#927/928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays @ Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - Taj Bradley the expected starter for the Rays and he has been a strikeout machine.  Zac Gallen the expected starter for the Diamondbacks and he has been fantastic at home this season.  Gallen is 7-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his 8 home starts this season!  So why not a bet on Arizona here rather than the under?  Well, we expect the Diamondbacks lineup to struggle with the Rays in this one.  Bradley has a 2.13 ERA in his five road starts this season.  Also, the Rays bullpen ranks 4th for BAA and 8th for WHIP out of all 30 teams in the majors.  The way we see it, the Dbacks lineup struggles here no matter who is on the mound for Tampa Bay.  As for the Rays lineup, they are facing a top-notch starting pitcher here.  Gallen has been strong for years and has been nearly unhittable this season at home as evidenced by his 1.00 ERA on the year at home.  Entering this game, 12 of last 15 Rays road games have totaled 8 or less runs.  We see some sharper books, in early market activity, have already dropped this total to an 8 and no matter how this total moves throughout the day, this is absolutely a sign that some sharper groups are also expecting a low-scoring battle here just like we are. We are going with the Under in this one.

#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - Expected starters are Anthony DeSclafani for San Francisco and Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the Diamondbacks and Giants both continue to trend toward high-scoring games. Also, these two bullpens are okay but not great as they rank in that middle 10 of the 30 teams in the majors based on bullpen ERA numbers so far this season. The Arizona bullpen has a 4.12 ERA on the season and the Giants bullpen has a 3.77 ERA on the season. As for the starters here, DeSclafani had a good April but he has not been overly impressive since and, in fact, has been hit quite hard in 4 of his last 6 starts. In those 6 starts he has allowed 22 earned runs in 29 innings! We look for the Diamondbacks to hit him hard as they remain hot at the plate. Also, the Giants should pound Nelson. The Dbacks righty has been hit hard in 4 of his last 5 starts. Nelson has struggled, other than one scoreless outing in this stretch, and has given up 16 earned runs on 30 hits in 19.2 innings in those other 4 starts. The Giants are off a 7-6 win over Arizona and that means a SF game totaled double digits in runs for the 9th time in 11 games. 13 of Diamondbacks last 19 games have totaled at least 9 runs! We expect double digits here as the wind will be blowing out a good clip for this afternoon game at Oracle Park and afternoon games in San Francisco do tend to invite more scoring than chilly night games here in the summer. We look for plenty of runs today regardless of the starting pitchers so we will go with "action" on the pitchers. But, the fact is those starters look to certainly help the cause if they get the ball here! Over is the call in this one Sunday afternoon.

#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9 Runs – Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - There is some rain in the Detroit area this morning but it is expected to move out by mid-day today so the weather should be fine for this early evening match-up. Little cool for late June standards and a light northerly breeze should also help the cause here in a park that is known for being friendly to the pitchers. The Twins and Tigers bullpen each have a WHIP that ranks them in the top ten in the majors. As for the starters here, Kenta Maeda has been very sharp in his minor league rehab appearances leading into this one. The Minnesota righty has his MLB numbers inflated this season due to just one bad start and this is is a guy that can be very tough to hit. Here Maeda will take advantage of facing a Tigers team that ranks as one of the worst in the majors at the plate with a .229 batting average and a .365 slugging percentage. As for Detroit starter Joey Wentz, he shows some ugly full season numbers to the betting markets but he has allowed 2 or less earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. Remember he was strong last season too and he appears to be rounding into form again now. Wentz is off a fantastic start against these same Twins as he held them to just 2 hits while striking out 9 in 6.1 innings of work! That start was in Minnesota and now he gets them in his home park in Detroit. Note that the Twins are hitting .219 in road games this season. That ranks them 29th of 30 teams in the majors. We see some sharper books, in early market activity, have already dropped this line to 8.5 and no matter how this total moves throughout the day, this is absolutely a sign that some sharper groups are also expecting a low-scoring battle here just like we are. We are going with the Under in this one.

#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - Expected starters are Osvaldo Bido for the Pirates and Drew Smyly for the Cubs. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus both of the bullpens certainly should help the cause as well. Taking a look at ERA, the Pirates bullpen and the Cubs bullpen both rank in the bottom fourth of the league so far this season. The Cubs have won 7 of 9 games and have been hitting well during this stretch and averaging 6 runs scored in those 9 games.  Look for Chicago to maintain this hotter stretch of hitting.  They will be helped here by the fact they just faced Bido and the Pirates bullpen last week.  Also, Pittsburgh just faced Smyly and the Cubs bullpen last week and the Pirates, season after season, do tend to hit better when at home. Pittsburgh should take advantage of facing a struggling Cubs pitcher, Smyly, in this one as he has struggled and been hit hard in his last 4 starts.  The Cubs lefty has allowed 30 hits in 22.1 innings in this 4-game stretch! The Pirates also have a starter, Bido, likely to struggle on the mound for this one. The right-hander is a rookie making just his 2nd start and giving the Cubs a quick second look at him.  He went 10-20 with an ERA in the 5.00 range in the last 3 seasons combined at the minor league level.  More of the same here at home in just his 2nd MLB start. Over is the call in this one Monday evening.

#969/970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – New York Yankees @ Seattle Mariners, Wednesday at 9:40 PM ET - We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over in this one.  This total dropped from an 8 to a 7.5 in a number of books in early market activity which is giving us extra value.  We get a lower total here because of George Kirby's long-term numbers and the fact these are two solid bullpens but one must also look at what these clubs, particularly the Yankees, have been doing offensively of late.  The key here is all the value these market perceptions have led to.  The Yankees are red hot at the plate and have scored exactly 10 runs in 3 straight games.  Also, New York's road games have seen them score an average of 6.1 runs last 10 games and they have won 6 straight and 8 of last 9 when away from home.  The Yankees are hot and Kirby enters this one off a very rough home start in which he allowed 4 homers!  New York has really been slugging the ball so don't be surprised if Kirby struggles again.  He also was hit harder at home last year just as has been the case this season.  As for Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt, his ERA and batting average against numbers have both been worse when on the road compared to at home.  Schmidt enters this one with a 5.58 ERA on the season and opponents hitting .301 against him.  The Mariners, prior to being held to 2 runs in yesterday's loss, had scored an average of 5 runs per game in their last 9 games.  Our computer math model shows a range of 9 to 10 as the most likely occurrence with the final run tally here and many simulations show a final run tally in the 11 to 12 range.  Over is the call in this one Wednesday night.

#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over in this one.  This total dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 which is giving us extra value.  The weather will be decent by Detroit standards for April.  We get a lower total here because of Kyle Gibson's numbers and the fact the Tigers are not great offensively.  The key here is all the value these market perceptions have led to.  Detroit actually hits better at home than they do on the road.  Also, the Orioles have been one of the top hitting teams in the majors this season on the road.  The Tigers also just faced Gibson and he shut them down in Baltimore.  However, now they will get a quick second look at him and he has struggled on the road in recent seasons.  This has been a marked dichotomy for Gibson and it has already continued for him early this season in that he is better at home than on the road.  Also, the last few times he has pitched at Comerica Park in Detroit, they have been complete disasters as Gibson has been hit very hard.  As for Tigers starter Joey Wentz, he just faced the Orioles and it did not end well.  Now Baltimore's lineup gets to quickly see him again and Wentz is likely to get hit very hard in the rematch as well.  The Tigers have played 8 home games this season and, other than one outlier which was a 1-0 win, the 7 other home games averaged totaling 10 runs per game!  The Orioles also have a rare outlier with a 1-0 shutout win on the road but have scored an average of 5.8 runs in their other 10 road games this season.  Our computer math model shows a range of 9 to 10 as the most likely occurrence with the final run tally here and many simulations show a final run tally in the 11 to 12 range.  Over is the call in this one Thursday evening.

#913/914 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs – Oakland A's @ Los Angeles Angels, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - Both these starting pitchers have struggled this season. Expected starters are Jose Suarez for Angels and Ken Waldichuk for the Athletics. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the bullpens help the cause. The Angels bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack - not awful but not great either. The Athletics bullpen however is much worse. Really some of Oakland's bullpen numbers are hard to believe as they are so off the norm (K:BB ratio for example). Oakland ranks dead last for bullpens so far this season including a 6.99 ERA. The Angels are 5-3 L8 home games and have scored an average of 5.4 runs in those games plus they took 2 of 3 at Oakland earlier this season and averaged 6.7 runs in the 3 games. We'll see plenty of runs here! Oakland has averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game in their last 6 road games but their problem is they can stop no one! The A's have allowed 8 runs per game this season which is unreal considering we are 22 games into the season. The A's pitching, including their beleaguered bullpen, has been truly dreadful. We like the odds on this one getting to double digits in runs with consideration to the above. About the expected starting pitchers, Suarez has struggled in all 3 of his starts this season and has allowed 12 earned runs in his three outings even though those starts have totaled only about 12 innings combined. The A's Waldichuk has allowed 11 earned runs in about 9 innings in his two road starts and the Angels have some hitters who have enjoyed success against him. Over is the call in this one Monday night.

#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Los Angeles Angels @ New York Yankees, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - Both these starting pitchers have struggled this season. Expected starters are Jose Suarez for Angels and Clarke Schmidt for the Yankees. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the power-hitting of these two clubs coupled with the westerly wind direction and a cool (but not cold) evening at Yankee Stadium is likely to lead to a slugfest here!  Look for the Angels to build off yesterday's win at Fenway Park but they also used up a ton of bullpen in that game. A long rain delay in that early game at Boston after Ohtani pitched the first two innings meant that Angels had to use a lot of bullpen for the final 7 innings of that game.  That one was a 5-4 LA win and we look for even more runs to be piling up in this early evening game in the Bronx Tuesday.  The Yankees bullpen has been solid this season but the Angels are 5-4 L9 road games and have scored an average of 7 runs in the 5 wins and allowed an average of 7 runs in the 4 losses.  We'll see plenty of runs here!  The Yankees will take advantage of a mediocre LA bullpen that got a lot of work yesterday.  New York has averaged scoring 5 runs per game this season and had averaged scoring 6 runs in their first 9 victories this season before a 2-0 pitchers duel win with Cole on the mound Sunday.  We like the odds on this one getting to double digits in runs with consideration to the above. About the expected starting pitchers, Suarez has struggled in both his starts this season and has allowed 10 earned runs in his two outings even though those starts have totaled only about 8 innings combined.  The Yankees Schmidt also has struggled in all 3 starts this season and he has an 8.44 ERA and has been hit at a .340 clip so far this season!  Schmidt has allowed 3 homers in less than 11 innings of work this season.  Over is the call in this one Tuesday evening.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies, Monday at 8 PM ET - We like the value on the total here. We were on the Under in Game 2 which was 7 runs and that was with Philadelphia ace Wheeler and Houston #2 starter Valdez on the mound. Now these 2 push down to their #4 and #3 starters with McCullers and Suarez and the total went up only a half a run. The Phillies are back home where they excel offensively and put runs on the board. In their 5 playoff games at Citizens Bank Park they scored 35 runs for an average of 7 RPG. Most of those games were vs high level starting pitchers including Darvish & Musgrove for San Diego and Strider and Morton for Atlanta. On the season the Phillies scored the 4th most runs at home with an average of 5.3 per game. Houston has averaged 4.6 RPG over their 9 game post-season scoring at least 4 in 7 of those 9 games. That includes Houston putting up 10 runs in the first 2 games of this series facing Philadelphia’s 2 ace starters Wheeler and Nola. Those 2 starters allowed 9 ER’s in 9.1 innings pitched in games 1 & 2. The Astros have had more success vs left handers this year compared to right handed pitchers. They’ve hit .260 on the season vs lefties (.238 vs RH) and they are averaging 5.1 RPG (4.4 vs RH). Suarez pitched in relief last week in this series and the one start he had vs Houston (in early October) he was shelled for 6 ER’s in just 3 innings of work. The drop down in starters on both sides should provide both teams with a solid opportunity to be successful offensively. Weather will be much better tonight with temps in the 60’s and light winds blowing from left to right. We like OVER 7.5 Runs here.

#953 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs - Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Phillies took game 1 of the series in a higher scoring 6-5 game but we like tonight’s match up to stay Under 7. The Phils have their top starter on the mound tonight in Zach Wheeler. He has been outstanding all season long but he’s turned his game up a notch in the post-season. He has started 4 games in the playoffs totaling 25.1 innings and he’s allowed just 10 hits during that stretch and 5 earned runs. The Houston line up has seen very little of Wheeler with 11 total plate appearances among their entire team and he did not face them this season giving him a big advantage here in our opinion. The Phillies will face Houston starter Valdez and he has been lights out as well in the post-season. He’s pitched 12.2 innings in the playoffs giving up just 8 hits and 2 ER’s. Both are low HR pitchers allowing 0.76 and 0.50 per innings so the long ball will be tough to come by tonight after they combined for 3 round trippers last night. After these 2 exit, the Houston bullpen has been one of the best in baseball all season with a 2.67 ERA and while Philadelphia’s relievers weren’t as impressive during the regular season, in their 12 playoff games their ERA is just 2.81. Neither of these teams has a great batting average in the post-season, both right around .230, but the Phillies have been fortunate to hit .307 in the playoffs with runners in scoring position, well above their team batting average. Some regression is expected on that end, especially vs Valdez who has held this line up to a .135 batting average (lifetime) in 42 plate appearances. When Wheeler and Valdez have started in the post-season (4 starts) their games have averaged a total of 5 runs. We see another low scoring game tonight in Houston.

#971/972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies, Friday at 7:35 PM ET - Two polar opposite ballparks in this series as San Diego is a pitcher’s park that averages 7.32 total RPG on the season while Philadelphia is a hitter’s park that averages over 9 total RPG on the year. The Phillies averaged 5 RPG at home this season which was the 4th most in MLB. In their 2 post season games they scored 9 & 8 runs vs a very good Atlanta pitching staff and the shelled both starters – Strider and Morton – who are top of the line rotation guys. Philadelphia has scored at least 4 runs in 19 of their last 23 home games. They’ll be facing SD starter Musgrove who has been pitching well but struggled in his only appearance vs Philly this year where they lit him up for 6 ER’s in 6 innings pitched. The Padres will face Philly left hander Suarez who is considered their 3rd or 4th best starter. He has an ERA at home of 4.27 and his WHIP on the season is a rather high 1.33. San Diego has been a solid hitting team vs lefties averaging 4.5 RPG on the season and on the road they’ve put up almost 5.5 RPG vs south paws. Weather looks good tonight with temps in the 60’s and light winds blowing out. Over is the call tonight.

#953/954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres, Wednesday at 4:30 PM ET - The Phillies took game 1 last night by a final score of 2-0 with the two teams combining for only 4 hits and 7 total baserunners. We see a similar result this afternoon. Both teams have high level starters taking the mound with the Phillies Aaron Nola and the Padres Blake Snell. Nola has been red hot in the post-season not allowing a single run in 12.2 innings pitched. Going back to the end of the regular season, he has not allowed an earned run in 4 of his last 5 starts. He faced the Padres just once this season and allowed 1 earned run in 7 innings with 10 strikeouts. San Diego will counter with Blake Snell who held the high powered LA Dodger line up to 1 earned run in 5.1 innings of work last Friday. He has been sharp as of late allowing just 5 earned runs in his last 6 starts combined. In 78 combined plate appearances, the current Phillies line up is hitting just .191 lifetime vs Snell. Neither team has been lighting it up at the plate in the post-season with Philadelphia hitting .218 and San Diego hitting .219. Both have relied heavily on the HR to put runs on the board and that’ll be tough today as both Nola (0.83) and Snell (0.77) are allowing well less than 1 HR per 9 innings pitched. Petco Park is always known as a pitcher’s park and this year was no exception as the average total runs scored here is 7.32 for the season. With the wind blowing in from left field this afternoon at 10 MPH, this game sets up as another low scoring affair. Let’s take the Under in this one.

#945/946 ASA PLAY ON Under 6 Runs – Tampa Bay @ Cleveland, Friday at 12:05 PM ET - These 2 teams are very similar in that they are pitching and defense first and neither offense has much in terms of power numbers. They have the 2 lowest team ERA’s and they have hit the fewest HR’s of all the teams in the wild card round. These 2 offenses rank 26th and 29th in in HR’s per game and 21st and 25th in slugging percentage. With cold temps on Cleveland (low 50’s) and the wind blowing straight in at 15 MPH, we don’t expect any long balls in this one which should limit scoring. These two met 6 times this year, including 3 times last week, and averaged just 6.6 total RPG. To this total is set basically right at that number but each team has their top starting pitcher on the mound which tells us this number should be set lower. Cleveland’s starter Shane Bieber was very strong this season especially down the stretch allowing just 1.7 ER’s per game over his last 10 starts (Average of 6.1 IP per start). He allowed just 0.8 HR’s per 9 innings this season and as we mentioned with TB’s lack of power, this will be a station to station game. The Rays McClanahan’s numbers aren’t as solid in the 2nd half of the season but he still allowed just 2 ER’s or fewer in 5 of his last 6 starts. The lefty should have success vs a Cleveland offense who’s top hitters are left handed. The Guardians ranked 29th in MLB in OPS vs southpaws and 28th in slugging percentage. Both bullpens are very good ranking 5th and 7th in MLB in ERA and 3rd and 6th in WHIP. This shapes up to be a 2-1 or 3-2 type game in our opinion and we’ll grab the Under.

#967/968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Oakland A’s vs LA Angels, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - Two of the worst offenses in MLB squaring off in this one. The A’s rank 28th or lower (out of 30 teams) in RPG, batting average, OPS, and HR’s per 9 innings. The Angels rank 24th or lower in the first 3 categories listed above. In the first 2 games of this series these teams put up 7 and 5 total runs and tonight we have better pitchers on the mound for both teams compared to the first 2 meeting of this series. LA’s Ohtani is allowing an average of just 1.3 ER over his last 10 starts (average start of 5.2 innings). He’s been dominant at home this season with an ERA of 2.00 and in 81 innings pitched he has allowing only 63 hits with a 109 strikeouts. He’s faced Oakland twice this season and he has an ERA of 1.54 in those 2 meetings. Ohtani is one of the top strikeout pitchers in the Majors 12 per 9 innings pitched and the Oakland offense averages almost 9 K’s per 9 innings so lots of swings and misses tonight. Oakland goes with lefty Irvin tonight. He’s faced the Angels 3 times this season with an ERA of 2.54. He’s coming off a couple poor outings, however those were vs the Mets & Astros, two of the top offensive teams in MLB. We expect him to pitch much better tonight vs an LA team he’s had success against and the Angels are averaging just 3.5 RPG this season vs left handers. The 2 have faced off 15 times this season and 11 of those games have totaled 7 or fewer runs. The UNDER is 21-8-2 last 31 meetings between these AL West rivals. We’ll call for another UNDER tonight in LA.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* #957/958 OVER 8.5 RUNS St. Louis @ Milwaukee, 7:40 PM ET - St Louis is coming off two low scoring series against the Dodgers and Padres. The Dodgers have the best pitching staff in baseball with a league leading 2.83 ERA. The Padres own the 11th best team ERA but in the last 15 days they’ve been especially hot with a 2.62 ERA. The Cardinals have been shutout three times in their last seven games which has driven this total down from where it should be. These two teams are in the top 10 in total runs scored this season and the Brewers have been especially hot with 5.16 runs scored per game in their last 12. Milwaukee will send Adrian Houser to the hill with his 4.62 ERA and 6-9 record. He is 0-2 with a 5.59 ERA in two starts this season against the Cardinals, giving up nine runs (six earned) in 9 2/3 innings of work. The Cardinals will counter with Miles Mikolas who is 11-13 SU on the year with a 3.35 ERA. Mikolas has lost his last three starts and is 2-4 with a 3.07 ERA over his last seven.

#977/978 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – LA Angels vs Minnesota Twins, Friday at 8 PM ET - Terrible weather in Minnesota tonight with 10+ MPH winds blowing in, cool weather, and possible rain. Not conducive for scoring runs. The starting pitchers should also lend to a low scoring game. Ohtani starts for LA and he has been fantastic all season. He’s striking out almost 12 per 9 innings and over his last 10 starts he’s allowing just 1.7 ER’s with an average of 6 IP. Over his last 4 starts he’s allowed just 2 ER over 27 innings pitched. He’s facing a struggling Minnesota offense that is averaging less than 3 RPG over their last 10 and they rank 22nd in runs scored since the All Star Break. The Angel offense has been one of the worst all season long. They rank 26th in RPG, 25th in batting average and 26th in OPS. They also strike out nearly 10 times per 9 innings. They are 27th in runs scored since the All Star Break and are averaging just 3.5 RPG over their last 10. They face Minnesota’s Varland who is making his 3rd start of the season. He had one very solid start vs a talented Yankee line up (2 ER allowed), struggled a bit vs Cleveland, but has 10 strikeouts in 10 IP which should match up well with LA’s strikeout prone line up. Varland had fantastic numbers in the Minors and nobody in the Angels line up has ever seen him. Let’s go UNDER the total in tonight’s game.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 11.5 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, 8 PM ET - There will be plenty of runs scored in the higher altitude of Denver Saturday night when the D’backs take on the Rockies. In the last 15-days no team in baseball has scored more runs than Arizona who has put up 88 runs in 14 games going into Friday night. These same two teams just put up 23 runs Friday. Colorado scores an average of 5.76 runs per game at home with their home contests averaging 11.44 runs. The Rockies have hit lefties extremely well of late with a team average of .284 in their last ten games. Arizona is white hot while facing righties with a .302 team average in their last ten games while averaging 5.0 runs per 9 innings. Neither pitcher has us scared as Bumgarner is 6-13 SU for the D’Backs with a 4.83 ERA this season. Urena for the Rockies is even worse with a 3-6 record and 6.13 ERA. Both teams score a bunch again Saturday.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 8 RUNS San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs, 4 PM ET - The Cubs continue to struggle at the plate and were no-hit through 4 innings yesterday by an average pitcher for the Reds in Luis Cessa. Today it will be even tougher to manage runs against the Giants starter Carlos Rodon who is 12-7 on the year with a 2.92 ERA. Rodon has 201 strikeouts on the season in 157.3 innings pitched and the Cubs rank 6th worst in K’s on the season. Rodon has double-digit strikeouts in 5 of his last eight starts. On the season the Cubs rank 23rd in runs per 9 innings with 4.12 scored. In their last twelve games that average has dipped to 3.50 runs per game. The Giants haven’t been hitting much better than Chicago in recent games either and will struggle to score in this game too. San Francisco averages 4.52 runs per 9 innings on the season but in their last 14 games they are averaging just 4.00 runs/9 innings and hitting .225 as a team. The Giants will face the Cubs starter Drew Smyly who is coming off one of his worst outings of the season at St Louis but had pitched well in five straight prior to the Cardinals. Smyly gave up 7 earned runs to the hot-hitting Cards but prior to that he had allowed just 3 earned runs in five games or 29.3 innings of work. In three of the four meetings between these two teams this season they have totaled 6 or less runs. BET UNDER HERE!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 RUNS Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs, 2:20 PM ET - These two teams pounded out 22 hits yesterday but only produced 8 runs. Our analytics suggest that both teams will have similar results at the plate today, but the run production will be higher. In each team's last ten games the combined total runs scored has been 9.10 for the Reds and 9.40 for the Cubs. Chicago has struggled to score runs lately but did put up 9 in the first game of this series. Chicago should put up solid offensive numbers here against the Reds starting pitcher Luis Cessa who has a 5.18 ERA and 5.47 FIP. Cessa has mainly been a reliever this year but has started three straight games while allowing 11 hits and 3 earned runs in 11 total innings. The Cubs are also a better hitting team against right-handed pitchers with a .241 team average and 6.5 runs per game on the season. The Reds run production is up in their last five games at 5.4 and they should put up plenty of runs against the Cubs starter Sampson early on. Sampson is 1-5 on the season with a 3.95 ERA and an expected XERA of 4.47. He has allowed 8 earned runs, 17 hits in his last 11.2 innings of work. The Reds also hit right-handed pitchers well with a .250 team average in their last ten games and a 5.6 runs per game average. Lastly, this will be a high bullpen usage game and both bullpens are atrocious. Cincinnati has the worst ERA of any bullpen in baseball and the Cubs are 24th. Bet the OVER here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 RUNS Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, 2:10PM ET - The Twins were just 1-hit by Dylan Cease and the White Sox and Saturday and we are betting they bounce back with a much better day at the plate Sunday. The White Sox pounded out 13 hits and 13 runs against the Twins yesterday. On Sunday the pitching match-up has Bundy for the Twins taking the hill to face Giolito for the Sox. Neither pitcher has overwhelming numbers on the season with Bundy toting a 4.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while Giolito has an ERA of 5.27 and a 1.50 WHIP. Giolito has been bad of late with 17 earned runs allowed in hit last four starts or 21.2 innings of work. In each teams last ten games they have averaged 9.40 runs which will get us the cash in this one. On the season these are two of the better hitting teams in baseball when facing right-handed pitchers. The Sox own the 4th best team average for the year against righties hitting .257. Minnesota isn’t far behind hitting .250 as a team against righties which is 8th best in the Bigs. In the ten meetings between these two teams this season they have scored 9 or more runs eight times. The bet here is OVER!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 8 Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels, 9 PM ET - On the season the Astros are one of the higher scoring teams in baseball with 597 runs on the year in 4397 at bats which ranks 9th best. In their last eleven games though they have managed to score only 41 runs and are hitting .241 as a team. Today the Astros will have a tough time putting up runs against Angels starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani who has a 2.67 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the season. In Ohtani’s last ten starts he is allowing just 1.60 Earned runs and an average of 5 hits per game. In two games against the Astros this season Ohtani has pitched 12 innings, just 1 earned run on 5 total hits and struck out 12 in each game. The Angels are one of the lowest scoring teams in baseball with 502 total runs in 132 games. In their last 27 games the Angels are averaging just 3.44 runs per game while hitting .223 as a team. The Astros will send Luis Garcia to the mound today and even though he doesn’t have great overall number, he is trending in the right direction with a better XERA and XFIP. Garcia doesn’t have to be great in this game to shutout the poor hitting Angels. The play here is UNDER 8 runs.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 runs Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals, 8:15 PM ET - This play sets up nicely for a higher scoring game based on current pitching and hitting trends. The Cardinals are 4th in total runs produced this season with 644 in 131 games. In the last 30-days nobody in baseball has scored more than the Cards who have 167 runs in 28 games or nearly 6 runs per game. St Louis is hitting .279 as a team with an .858 OPS which are also the best numbers in the Majors for that same 30-day span. The Cardinals should feast on Cubs starter Adrian Sampson who is 1-4 on the season with a 3.97 ERA and an XERA of 4.48. Sampson has really struggled in his last two starts giving up 6 earned runs on 13 hits in just 6.2 total innings of work. One of those outings was against this same St Louis team that roughed him up for 5 earned runs on 8 hits in a Cards 13-3 win. The Cubs will put up a few runs of their own in this match-up. The Cubs are below average in runs/9 innings on the season at 4.17 (23rd) but they should put up some runs in this game. The Cubs just faced the Cardinals starter Jordan Montgomery on August 22nd so they have a much better idea of what he brings to the mound. Montgomery is 7-3 on the season overall (started 3-3 with NY) with a 3.28 ERA. In his last start, Montgomery gave up 5 earned runs on 8 hits against the Braves. In their last ten games the Cubs and their opponents have averaged 9.60 runs per game. Chicago has hit lefties well in their last ten with a .265 average and 4.76 runs/9 innings. The same can be said for the Cardinals games which have averaged 10.30 runs per 9/innings with St Louis hitting .272 against righties and putting up an average of 5.02 runs/9. We expect lots of runs in this game and an Over winner early on.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 9 runs Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 PM ET - In the matchup last night these two teams pounded out 21 total hits and put up 15 runs. The game could have been even higher scoring as they stranded 22 total base runners. The D’Back hitters are really seeing the ball right now as this offense has put up double-digit runs in 3 of their last four games and 7+ in 6 of their last nine games. Philadelphia is 6th on the season in total runs scored with 603 and own the 9th best team batting average and are 8th in OPS. The Phillies own the 4th best average when facing left-handed pitchers. Neither starting pitcher is great here with Bailey Falter getting the start for the Phillies and Tommy Henry for the D’Backs. Henry is 3-2 in 5 starts this season with a 3.25 ERA but his expected ERA is much higher at 5.09. Falter is 2-3 on the year with a 4.41 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He’s allowed 5 or more hits in 6 of his last seven starts. Arizona is hitting .288 as a team against lefties in their last ten games and scoring 9.77 runs per 9 innings. Philadelphia is hitting .275 their last ten against a left-handed pitcher scoring 5.48 runs/9 innings. With a pair of average pitchers and two hot hitting teams we expect plenty of runs in this one.

#975/976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 6.5 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Miami’s offense has been brutal. Since the All Star Break they have the lowest batting average in MLB at .211 and have scored just 94 total runs in 37 games (2.5 RPG). The next lowest run total in the Majors since the break in Washington with 110 runs so Miami has by far the worst run production since mid July. They face one of the top pitchers in MLB tonight with TB sending McClanahan to the hill. He has an ERA of just 2.20, opponents have a batting average of only .184 vs McClanahan and he has the lowest xFIP on the board today at 2.27. He has a lifetime ERA of 0.82 vs Miami and his one start this year vs the Marlins didn’t allow a run. Miami has the worst batting average in MLB vs left handers at .199 and they average just 2.4 RPG on the season vs south paws. The Marlins will send lefty Luzardo to start tonight and he has been pitching very well with an ERA of 2.67 in his 5 starts this month. He has not faced TB this season giving him a leg up in this match up. The Rays offense has been below average all season ranking 20th or lower in batting average, RPG, OPS and HR’s. Versus left handers on the road this season Tampa is hitting .219 and averaging 3.6 RPG. We don’t anticipate either offense doing much in this game and we’ll side with the Under in this game.

#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers, Friday at 8 PM ET - These two just played a higher scoring series last week but those numbers were very deceiving as we has strong winds blowing out at Wrigley for 2 of those games. We know what happens when the wind blows out at Wrigley! The one game where the wind was not in play last week was a 5-2 Milwaukee win. The fact is, even with the other 2 games factored in (scores of 8-7 and 6-5) these 2 teams are simply bad right now offensively. Over the last 10 games Milwaukee is hitting .173 and Chicago is hitting .199. Over the last month Milwaukee’s bats rank 28th in batting average and the Cubs check in at 22nd. Both struggling offenses are facing pitchers performing at a high level right now. Chicago’s starter Steele has been nearly unhittable allowing 1 ER or fewer in 7 of his last 9 starting including not allowing a single ER in 4 of those starts. One of those starts was last week vs Milwaukee where he did not allow an ER in 6 innings of work. Not overly surprising as he is pitching lights out and the Brewers own the 2nd worst batting average in MLB vs lefties. Milwaukee starter Peralta has made 4 starts since returning from the DL and allowed just 7 ER’s combined in those outings. He faced the Cubs last week and gave up 2 ER’s in 6 innings pitched. Peralta’s overall ERA is 4.08 but he’s pitched much better than that with an xERA of 3.23 and a FIP of 3.07. Neither pitcher allows many HR’s with Peralta giving up just 4 this season in 57+ innings and Steele allowing only 7 round trippers in 113+ innings. We anticipate a low scoring game between these division rivals and we like the Under.

#911/912 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Both of the first 2 games in this series landed directly on 8 total runs but we expect this one to eclipse that number. In game 1 the O’s won 5-3 and the Sox won by the same score in game 2. Chicago alone has left 23 runners on base the last 2 games and the 2 teams have combined to leave 33 on base so far in this series. The 2 have combined to put 50 runners on base in the first 2 games of the series yet scored just 16 total runs. In other words, both teams have had LOTS of opportunities to score many more runs but the bounce of the ball has been rather unlucky. We say that changes tonight. Lance Lynn pitches for the White Sox and his road ERA is a hefty 6.39 and he has allowed 41 hits in just 31 innings of work away from home. He’s faced Baltimore once this season and allowed 5 ER’s in 6.2 IP. The Orioles will start Lyles who has an ERA of 4.61 on the season but his xERA is higher at 4.82. He’s also allowing opponents to hit .282 on the season which is the 2nd highest BA allowed of any pitcher on the board today. His lifetime ERA vs the White Sox is 5.56 in 6 appearances. We should also see some runs on the back end of this game as both bullpens have been struggling. The Sox bullpen ERA over the last 10 games is 6.55 and Baltimore sits at 4.28. Look for both teams to actually get some hits with runners on base today and this one rolls over 8 Runs.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 RUNS St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs, 8 PM ET - These two teams split a double-header yesterday with one low scoring game and then producing 16 runs in the night cap. The Cubs won the day game 2-0 but St Louis had plenty of chances to score runs but they went 0-10 with runners in scoring position. Both pitching staffs allowed just 10 total hits in the game, but the Cubs were forced to use up their bullpen. In Game two the Cardinals broke open with 16 hits and cruised to a 13-3 win. We know the Cardinals are going to score runs here. They are hitting .310 as a team with 18 home runs and averaged 7 runs per game over their last ten games. In their last 15 games they have produced 95 total runs which is the most in the Major League over the last 15-days. St Louis should feast on Cubs pitcher Luke Farrell making his 2022 debut. Farrell didn’t “fare” well in Triple a with a 5.03 ERA in 11 starts. The Cubs will also contribute to this Over with this being the 4th time seeing Cardinal’s starter Miles Mikolas. Mikolas has a 4.15 ERA versus the Cubs this season and has allowed 20 hits in 17.1 innings of work. In the last 15-days the Cubs have scored 63 total runs or 4.2 runs per game. We expect plenty of runs in this one to push it well past the 8.5 runs.

#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – NY Mets vs NY Yankees, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We realize the Yankees have really been struggling offensively but we’ve seen some signs of life as of late. Yesterday they put up 4 runs in 6.2 innings on Mets ace Max Scherzer. They have now put up 4 runs in each of their last 2 games after doing so just once their previous 11 games. Still, the Yanks rank 2nd in MLB in scoring, 3rd in OPS, and 1st in HR’s on the season. They will be facing Walker on the mound for the Mets who has been struggling with back problems as of late and it’s showing in his performance. Over his last 5 starts Walker’s is almost 7.00 and he’s allowed 35 baserunners in 20 innings. The Mets offense also is among the best in MLB for the season ranking in the top 7 in RPG, OPS, and batting average. They are averaging 5.3 RPG this season vs right handers including 6 RPG over their last 10. Yankee pitcher Montas has been a disaster since coming over from Oakland allowing 14 ER’s in 14 innings pitched. He’s also allowed 24 baserunners during that 3 game stretch. The wind is blowing out tonight 5-10 MPH at Yankee Stadium and we look for double digit runs. Take the Over.

#905/906 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET - After the wind was blowing out at Wrigley in the first 2 meetings of this series, today it’s blowing in at 10 MPH which obviously makes a huge difference. Cubs won 8-7 in game 1 and due to the wind it seemed every routine fly ball had a chance to go out – 5 HR’s in that game. Chicago also won yesterday’s game 6-5, however it was 3-3 after 9 innings and they scored 5 in extras. The 2 teams combined for only 9 hits prior to extra innings yesterday. Cubs send Steele to the mound who has been pitching very well. He has allowed 0 ER’s in 3 of his last 4 starts and over his last 10 he is giving up just 1.5 ER’s in 5+ innings per start. He has a 2.75 ERA in 4 starts vs Milwaukee this season and the Brewers offense struggles big time vs lefties with a batting average of .219 which ranks them 29th out of 30 MLB teams. Woodruff takes the mound for Milwaukee and he is sporting a 2.75 ERA over his last 12 starts. Since May 1st, he has 14 starts under his belt and he’s allowed 3 ER’s or fewer in 13 of those game. Lifetime vs current Cubs hitters, Woodruff has allowed a batting average of only .194. Steele has been even better vs current Milwaukee hitters allowing a batting average of just .183 lifetime. After these 2 combined for 7 HR’s over the first 2 meetings in this series, with the wind blowing in and 2 starters pitching at a very high level, the long ball will be tough today. Under in this one.

#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – St Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET - The St Louis bats are red hot and we expect that to continue tonight. The Cards are hitting just under .300 over their last 10 games while averaging over 6 RPG. On the season STL ranks 4th in RPG, 6th in batting average and 5th in OPS. They’ll be facing struggling left hander Bumgarner and STL owns the 3rd best batting average in the Majors vs lefties while averaging 5.6 RPG. Bumgarner has been shaky most of the season with an ERA of 4.37 but an xERA exceeding 5.00. Over his last 4 games his ERA is 7.33 and he has allowed 42 baserunners in just 23 innings during that stretch. He's had 14 career starts vs the Cardinals with an ERA of 5.23. Arizona will be facing Hudson on the hill for St Louis and he is their weakest starter. His ERA is 4.17 but his xERA is north of 5.00. Over his last 10 starts Hudson is averaging 5 IP per start while allowing 3.3 ER’s. On the road his ERA is 5.10 and he has allowed 86 baserunners in 55 innings. The DBacks bats have been a bit quiet over their last 5 but all were vs top of the line starters and Hudson is a big step down tonight. On the season Arizona is averaging 4.6 RPG at home and they’ve gone Over in 7 of their last 10 at Chase Field. These 2 combined to score 6 runs last night but had 16 hits which would normally equate to around 8 runs and 25 LOB and both teams starters had much better ERA’s than today’s pitchers. Both offenses play well tonight and this one goes Over 9 Runs.

#953/954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – LA Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - We’ve had 3 low scoring games so far in this series and expect another here. These 2 have scored 16 total runs in 3 games in this series however 3 of those runs have come in extra innings. That means 13 runs scored in 3 games in regulation or barely 4 total runs per game. Minus the extra inning hits in game 2, these two have combined for just 28 total hits in 3 games. Milwaukee’s offense has been terrible over the last few weeks. Over their last 10 games their team batting average is .180 and they are averaging 2.8 RPG. As we stated in yesterday’s analysis (lost with LA run line despite Brewers scoring only 1 run – tough) the Brewers aren’t a great hitting team (23rd in batting average) so they rely heavily on HR’s to score. LA starter Heaney, who sports a 1.16 ERA on the season, has allowed 1 HR all year. He's also a lefty and Milwaukee really has problems vs south paws with a team batting average of .218 with is 29th in MLB. While LA came into this series red hot offensively, they’ve cooled off over their last 5 games with a batting average of only .216. In this series they are hitting just .192 over the first 3 games. Facing Milwaukee ace Burnes won’t help them here. He has a 2.39 ERA on the season and opponents are hitting .181 vs him. Both pitchers average right around 12 K’s per 9 innings which puts them near the top in that category. Two struggling offenses and lots of swings and misses today means another low scoring game. Under is the play.

#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – NY Mets vs Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET - Atlanta took game 1 of this series with a 13-1 win last night. That was the 6th time these teams have met this month and they are averaging over 11 total runs scored in those games. These are 2 of the top offensive teams with each ranking in the top 9 in RPG, OPS, and batting average. Since the All Star Break the Mets rank #1 in batting average and Atlanta comes in at #5. As far as runs scored, these 2 teams rank 2nd and 3rd in MLB since the break only behind the Dodgers. Morton will start for Atlanta and he has been shelled in his 2 starts vs the Mets this season going 0-2 with a 7.59 ERA. Over his last 3 starts, Morton has an ERA of 4.58. Walker starts for the Mets and he has faced Atlanta once this season, just 11 days ago, and he last 1 inning giving up 8 ER’s. He has been struggling in general as of late allowing 16 ER’s over his last 4 starts in just 18.2 innings pitched. Over the last 10 games these offenses are both averaging around 5.5 RPG with a batting average well above their season averages. These 2 N.L. East rivals have met 13 times this season and the Over is 9-3-1. Hot temps in Atlanta tonight with the wind blowing straight out to center at 10+ MPH should be a perfect situation for a high scoring game. We like Over the total in this one.

#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Chicago White Sox vs KC Royals, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - Dylan Cease starts for the Sox in this game and he has given up next to nothing this year. His ERA is 1.98 on the season and over his last 10 starts he’s allowed a total of 5 ER’s. He’s allowed just 2 ER’s over his last 31 innings for an ERA of 0.59. Cease has faced the Royals twice this season and he’s allowed 2 ER’s combined in those 2 starts. The KC offense ranks 24th in RPG and at home this season they are averaging just 3.6 RPG vs right handed pitchers. The Royals send Greinke to the hill and while he’s had some issues on the road this season, at home he’s been very good with an ERA of 2.23. He’s made 9 starts at home this season and allowed 2 ER’s or fewer in 8 of those. The Sox offense has gone south as of late scoring 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 7 games and they are averaging 3.5 RPG over their last 10. Since the All Star Break Chicago has scored a total of 68 runs ranking them 25th in MLB during that stretch. These 2 A.L. Central rivals are used to low scoring games with 12 of the last 15 meetings in KC going Under the Total and 20 of their last 26 overall staying Under. Low scoring today in KC.

#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 12 Runs – St Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET - This total opened 10.5 last night and was hammered up to 12 fairly quickly. Still not high enough in our opinion. Our total on this game is set at 12.9 so we still feel there is vale with the Over. These 2 combined for 21 runs on 30 hits last night. If we add in the walks, these 2 combined for 36 baserunners in 9 innings or a whopping 4 per inning! Tonight 2 lefties are headed to the mound with Quintana for St Louis and Freeland for Colorado. Both offenses excel vs south paws this season with the Cards averaging 5.45 RPG and the Rockies averaging 5.25 RPG (Colorado averages 7.34 RPG at home vs left handed pitchers). Factor in the altitude and the winds which will be blowing out to left at 10 to 15 MPH and we get not only the Coors Field factor but Coors Field Plus (wind) tonight. Quintana has pitched once at Coors this season when he was with Pittsburgh and the Rockies put up 13 runs in that game, he allowed 6 ER’s in 5 innings. Freeland has an ERA of 5.55 with a 1.60 WHIP at home this season for the Rockies. Colorado home games have averaged 11.25 total runs this year so while this seems high, it really isn’t when we factor in the weather and what we expect to be hot hitting line ups again tonight. Over 12 in this one.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 9.5 Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles, 7 PM ET - Toronto is one of the higher scoring teams in baseball, but the Orioles are not ranking 20th in runs/9 innings. The O’s rank 20th or worse in hitting, OPS and strikeouts per game. Toronto is playing their 7th straight road game and their offensive numbers are trending down as they’ve scored 3 or less runs in four of those away games. The Blue Jays have now stayed Under the Total in 7 of their last ten games with the total runs scored in those contests being an average of 7.40 run/9 innings. The last ten games involving the Orioles have averaged 7.30 runs/9 innings. Pitching will play an important part in this game too with Kikuchi slated to start for the Jays, Lyles for the O’s. In their last ten games the Orioles are hitting just .203 as a team against left-handed starters and scoring an average of 2.43 runs/9 innings. Toronto has recently struggled hitting right-handed starters with a .232 team average and 4.18 runs/9 innings. Kikuchi is coming off two solid outings with just 5 hits allowed and 3 earned runs in 9 innings of work. In the last five games he’s started the totals have all finished with 9 or less runs. Lyles has also pitched well in his last two starts, lasting 11.3 innings with 11 K’s, 1 earned run allowed and 10 total hits. This sets up to be a low scoring game.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 RUNS Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers, 8:10PM ET - The Brewers are one of the higher scoring teams in baseball at 4.65 runs per game and average even more at home at 4.72. The Reds are slightly below average in runs per game at 4.32 which ranks 18th. The Reds pitching staff as a whole has not been good this season as they allow an average of 5.32 runs/9 innings and rank 29th in home runs allowed at 1.37. That’s significant considering the Brewers are 4th in home runs at 1.43 per game. Milwaukee is also below average in runs allowed per 9 innings at 4.37 which ranks 17th in MLB. On the season the Brewers have excelled versus right-handed pitching but in their last ten games they’ve been even better with a .298 average and 7.19 runs/9 innings. The same can be said for the Reds who have hit left-handed starters well all year but in their last ten games it’s been better yet with a .278 team average while scoring an average of 6.43 runs/9 innings. In the last 15 days the Brewers have scored 71 runs in 12 games (4th most) while Cincinnati has put up 59 total runs in 13 games (10th). The bet here is OVER the number.

#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8 Runs – Oakland A’s vs LA Angels, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET - We were on the under in this match up yesterday and cashed nicely as the A’s topped the Angels 3-1. These two AL West rivals have now met 9 times this season and only once have they totaled more than 8 runs. The average total runs scored in their 9 match ups this season is 5.66. The offenses are 2 of the worst in MLB. Oakland ranks 29th or lower out of 30 teams in RPG, OPS, and batting average and LA ranks 25th or lower in those 3 categories. Blackburn is on the mound tonight for the A’s and he’s been great on the road this season with a 1.74 ERA and he’s allowed just 51 hits in 68 innings away from home. He’s been a heavy ground ball pitcher this year at almost 50% which limits home runs and leads to lower scoring games. Junk, perfect name for a pitcher, is going for LA. He’s only pitched in 2 games this season but has looked very good. In his 1 start he went 5 innings, struck out 8 and did not allow an earned run. Oakland has never seen him before which gives him the edge in this game. Over the last 10 games, the Angels are averaging 6.8 total RPG and Oakland is averaging 7.7. Both bullpens have also been performing much better as of late compared to their season long stats. We think we’re in for another low scoring game this afternoon and we’re on the Under.

#927/928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Oakland A’s vs LA Angels, Wednesday at 9:35 PM ET - The Angels picked up a 3-1 win in last night’s game between these division rivals who have now played 8 times this season. In those 8 meetings they’ve topped 8 runs just 1 time and their average total runs scored when these 2 meet is 5.8. That’s understandable as both offenses rank near the bottom of MLB in most key categories. Oakland ranks 29th or lower out of 30 teams in RPG, OPS, and batting average and LA ranks 25th or lower in those 3 categories. Oakland had a solid run coming out of the All Star break but they’ve now been held to 2 runs or less in 3 straight games. LA is averaging just 3.7 RPG over their last 10 outings. Ohtani gets the call for the Angels and he’s pretty much shut down everybody. His ERA 2.81 and his xERA is even lower at 2.48. He’s also been a strike out machine averaging over 13 per 9 innings pitched. He has not faced Oakland this year giving him a leg up in this meeting. The A’s will go with Kaprielian who’s numbers aren’t as gaudy with a 4.50 ERA, however opponents are hitting just .227 vs him and he has been on his game as of late. Over his last 4 starts, Kaprielian has allowed a total of 4 ER’s in 22 innings of work. He has allowed just 23 baserunners in that 22 inning span. He has also not faced the Angels this season which gives him an advantage in our opinion. Historically both pitchers have been very solid vs the opposing hitters on these teams with Kaprielian allowing a batting average of .156 while Ohtani has allowed a BA of only .114. Another low scoring affair here and we like the UNDER in this one.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 runs Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres, 4:10 PM ET - Nine runs will get us a win in this contest and our predictive analytics suggest 10 or more total runs in this series finale. It starts with the pitchers for both teams as the Twins send right-handed Dylan Bundy to the hill with the Padres countering with lefty Sean Manaea. Bundy is 6-4 on the season with a 5.02 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. In his last five starts he has two wins and three no decisions but has allowed 15 earned runs on 27 hits in 24.1 innings of work. Historically, Bundy hasn’t been great, sporting an ERA over 4.79 in four of his last five seasons. The Padres have scored 4 or more runs in five of their last six games and hit .235 versus righties this season scoring an average of 4.27 runs/9 innings. Minnesota is on an 8-1 Over streak as a result of scoring or allowing runs depending on the day. The Twins have scored 4 or more runs themselves in 5 of their last seven games and have allowed 4+ in 5 of six. Minnesota has ripped left-handed pitchers in their last ten games by hitting .274 as a team and producing 5.89 run/9 innings in that span. It all adds up to a high scoring game today. BET OVER!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 8 Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros, 7:10 PM ET - It all starts with pitching in this match up and it features two solid starters with Chris Flexen for Seattle and Framber Valdez. Valdez is 9-4 on the season with a miniscule 2.74 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He’s a solid strikeout pitcher with 110 K’s this season in 121.2 innings of work. In his last start he faced this same Seattle team and went 6.2 innings with 8 strikeouts, 8 hits and 3 earned runs which all came in the 6th. The Mariners will send Flexen to the mound who is 7-8 on the season with a 3.75 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. He's allowed just 3 earned runs in his last three starts in 15.2 innings of work. Flexen faced this Houston team in June and allowed 2 earned runs on 5 hits in 6.2 innings of work. We expect two quality starts for both of these pitchers and then they’ll turn it over two a pair of the best bullpens in MLB. The Astros have the #1 ranked bullpen in terms of ERA at 2.72, Seattle is 11th at 3.61. Seattle is scoring just 3.35 runs/9 innings in their last ten games; Houston is scoring 4.22 run/9 innings their last ten games against right-handed pitchers. The Under has cashed 7 of the last ten meetings. Bet UNDER!

#951/952 ASA PLAY ON Over 9 Runs – Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies, Wednesday at 12:35 PM ET - These 2 NL East rivals have already met 9 times this season and they’ve scored an average of 9.8 RPG in those meetings. Yesterday they hit 9 total runs with two of their top pitchers facing off with Nola for Philly and Strider for Atlanta. Today we have Gibson on the hill for the Phillies and he has struggled allowing at least 5 ER’s in 3 of his last 5 starts and his ERA this season is 4.69. He’s been susceptible to the HR this year allowing 1.25 per 9 innings and he’s facing an Atlanta line up that ranks 2nd in MLB averaging 1.55 HR’s per 9 innings. Braves hitters have had their way historically with Gibson with a batting average of .317 over 111 plate appearances. Philly will face Charlie Morton who has been pitching well but has struggled vs this team. In his 1 outing vs Philadelphia this season Morton allowed 2 ER’s in 5.2 innings of work but was rather fortunate as he allowed 11 baserunners in that game. Philadelphia batters have a lifetime average of .303 vs Morton over 142 plate appearances. He’s also been much better at home compared to on the road where his ERA is 4.59 with a WHIP of 1.37. The Braves have totaled at least 9 runs in each of their last 10 games with 9 of those going Over the total. Both offenses are among the best in the Majors ranking in the top 7 in RPG and HR’s per 9 innings. Weather looks perfect for a high scoring game with temps in the 80’s and light winds blowing straight out to center field. Over 9 is the play here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 10.5 Chicago White Sox @ Colorado Rockies, 8:40 PM ET - The Rockies are obviously one of the higher scoring teams in baseball at 4.61 runs per game and much of that is due to their home field where they average 5.88 runs per game. The White Sox are currently 16th in runs/9 innings on the year but have improved dramatically in the last 30-days by producing 129 total runs in 25 games. In fact, the Chi Sox averaged just 3.66 runs/per 9 innings on June 1st but now produce 4.41 on the season. Today the starting pitchers are Kopech for the Sox and Marquez for the Rockies. Kopech is 3-6 on the year with a 3.36 ERA but his XERA moving forward is 5.04. Kopech has allowed 32 hits in his last 30.4 innings pitched allowing 20 earned runs. Marquez is 6-7 on the year with a 5.47 ERA and he’s been hit pretty hard in his last four starts giving up 13 earned runs, 20 hits in 22.3 innings of work. This total is high for a reason…BET OVER!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 runs Houston Astros vs. Oakland A’s – 9:40 PM ET - We are betting the value here and Over 8 runs. These same two teams and pitchers just met in Houston in mid-July and the Over-Under on the game was 8.5. The game featured 16 total hits with 18 men left on base and finished with 7 runs. Oakland owns one of the worst offenses in baseball this season ranking 27th or worse in home runs, OPS, Average and runs/9 innings but they’ve been much better of late. In their last five games overall, the A’s are hitting .251 as a team and scoring 4.93 runs per game. Oakland’s last five games have averaged 9.20 total runs per game. Houston is in the top half of the league in most key offensive categories including runs/9 innings (4.53), OPS, rank 3rd in home runs and 3rd in fewest strikeouts per game. The A’s will send Adam Oller to the hill who is a starter/reliever and in the games he’s started he is 0-3 with an ERA over 8.5. In his last four starts he’s given up 22 hits, 18 earned runs in 17.2 innings of work. Jake Ordorizzi is 4-2 on the year with a 3.56 ERA for the Astros which are solid numbers but the A’s are seeing him for the third time this season so the hitters should have an edge. Bet the value and OVER here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 7.5 RUNS Detroit Tiger @ Oakland A’s (Game 1) 3:37 PM ET - We are playing UNDER the total in the first game of the doubleheader between the Tigers and A’s today. These two teams possess the worst scoring offenses in the Majors with the Tigers ranking 30th in runs/9 inning at 3.24, 27th in team batting average at .229, 29th in OPS and 30th in homeruns. It’s been even worse for the Tigers in their most recent ten games as they’ve managed just 2.70 runs/9 innings. The A’s are right there with Detroit as they rank 29th in runs per 9 innings at 3.38, 30th in team average at .211, 30th in OPS and 29th in homeruns. In their last ten games the A’s have a higher run production at 4.01 but they had an anomaly game of 14 runs in that stretch versus Texas. Detroit starter Skubal is 6-8 on the year with a 4.11 ERA but his expected ERA (XERA) is lower at 3.36 and he owns an XFIB of 3.28 meaning he’s pitching better overall than his numbers would indicate. Zach Logue is slated to start today for the A’s and the lefty should have a solid day against this Tiger lineup. Logue was just called up on July 9th and pitched well against Houston with 5 solid innings, 3 hits and 2 earned runs. There is a real possibility one of these teams don’t score a run considering how bad they are offensively so the Under is the bet here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers, 2:35 PM ET - We expect both teams to put up runs early and often in this match up with a pair of sub-par starters taking the hill. Seattle will send Chris Flexen to the bump, the Rangers counter with Glenn Otto. These two starters have average overall numbers on the season but of today’s starters they have two of the worst XERAs and XFIPs which tells us they have pitched slightly better than they are both expected to in the future. Otto has a 5.81 XERA while Flexen is 5.08. These two teams had 17 hits yesterday but only managed 5 total runs. In the opener of the series, they produced 23 hits and scored 11 total runs. The Mariners offense is below average on the season ranking 24th in runs per/9 innings at 4.17, but in their last ten games they are scoring a full run more at 5.26. Texas ranks 12th in runs/9 innings on the season at 4.57 but in their last ten games they’ve improved that number to 5.30. Combined these two teams are on a 13-7 Over streak. Based on the starting pitching, the bullpen use in the first two games and how the teams are producing runs, we like OVER here!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 7.5 Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4 PM ET - We get two hot hitting teams squaring off today in what should be a run-fest for both teams. Over the course of the last fifteen days the Rays are the 3rd highest hitting team in the Bigs, the O’s are 9th. Over that same time span the Rays have produced 76 runs *4th) while Baltimore has scored 59 (14th). Overall for the season, the O’s are averaging 4.22 run/9 innings while Tampa Bay is averaging 4.24. In their last ten games both teams run production is even higher with Baltimore scoring an average of 5.42 runs/9 innings, Tampa Bay 4.81. Baltimore starting pitcher Dean Kremer has impressive numbers on paper at 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA but we expect to see him start to regress as his XFIP of 4.65 is a better indicator of where he stands overall as a pitcher. His counterpart today is Ryan Yarbrough for the Rays who has the second highest XFIP on the board today of 5.76. Yarbrough is 0-4 on the season with a 5.82 ERA. This number is lower than it should be so grab the value with the OVER!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, 8 PM ET - These two teams just pounded out a combined 28 hits yesterday in the Sox 12-2 win and with both hitters seeing the ball well we expect another high scoring game here. In fact, these teams have squared off seven times already this season and every game, but one has seen 9 or more runs scored. The last time the Twins faced Kopech they pounded him for 8 hits and 6 earned runs in 4.2 innings of work. The right-handed Kopech has 2 no-decisions and 4 losses in his last six starts. In his last five outings he’s given up 27 total hits and 18 earned runs in 25.4 innings of work. The Twins offense is 11th in the league in runs/9 innings, 7th in average, 5th in OPS and 9th in home runs. The White Sox have hit well all season with the 4th best team batting average, but it hasn’t translated to runs where they rank 17th. Chicago has seen their run production go up dramatically in recent weeks though as they have scored 77 total runs in their last 15 games which is the second highest number in the Majors behind only the Yankees. In their last ten games they are hitting .310 as a team against lefties and scoring 5.51 runs/9 innings. Those numbers are significant considering they will see the Twins left-handed starter Devin Smeltzer who is 4-2 on the year with a 3.92 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Smeltzer has allowed 11 total earned runs in his last three starters along with 18 hits in 15.1 innings of work. In his most recent outing, he was shelled for 8 hits and 7 earned runs against Texas.

#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – Houston Astros vs LA Angels, Wednesday at 9:35 PM ET - Yesterday these 2 scored 11 runs with Houston winning 6-5 but the 2 teams combined for only 10 hits which normally would equate to around 5 runs. Nearly half of the runs scored yesterday (5) came in the final 3 innings and only 6 of the 11 runs were actually earned runs. Tonight we anticipate a very low scoring game with 2 outstanding starters on the mound. Ohtani goes for the Angels and he’s been absolutely unhittable as of late. He’s allowed just 2 ER’s in his last 34 innings and he’s allowed a total of 18 baserunners during that stretch! He hasn’t faced LA yet this season but his historical numbers are very good allowing a batting average of .188 lifetime vs current Angel hitters. Houston goes with Javier tonight and he faced LA on July 1st and allowed a total of 1 baserunner in 7 innings pitched. Opponents are hitting just .176 vs Javier this season and he’s facing an LA lineup that has been terrible as of late with a batting average of .177 over their last 10 games. The LA offense has put up more than 4 runs only twice in their last 15 games. Both starters are big strikeout pitchers with each averaging over 12 K’s per 9 innings. If you combine their stats on the season, Ohtani & Javier are averaging 25 K’s per 9 innings and just 5 walks. This one should be low scoring.

#905/906 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – NY Mets vs Atlanta Braves, Monday at 7:20 PM ET - Both teams have their top starters on the mound tonight and we expect a low scoring battle. Scherzer came back from a stint on the DL on July 5th to make a start vs Cincinnati. He looked like he hadn’t missed a beat allowing just 2 hits and 0 ER’s in 6 IP. He racked up 11 strike outs in those 6 innings. On the season opponents are hitting just .198 vs Scherzer and he’s allowed only 48 total baserunners in 57+ innings. He has not faced Atlanta yet this season. Lefty Fried takes the hill for Atlanta and he’s been just as impressive. His ERA on the season is 2.52 and he’s allowed just 4 ER’s in his last 4 starts. Fried also has not allowed a HR since June 9th and is giving up just 0.50 HR’s per 9 innings this season. The Mets have struggled vs lefties this year averaging just 3.79 RPG on the road with a batting average of .239 overall vs southpaws. In his only meeting vs NY this year, Fried allowed 2 ER’s in 6 innings. Both are high strikeout pitchers and both walk only 1.5 batters per 9 innings so we look for very few baserunners tonight. Each bullpen ranks in the top 10 (Atlanta 4th & NYM 10th) so when the starters do exit we should be OK. These 2 NL East rivals have met 4 times this year and averaged just 7.5 total RPG in those meetings. With their top starters going here, we look for another pitcher’s duel.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 8.5 L.A. Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles, 4 PM ET - The Angels are struggling at the plate right now with a .200 team batting average their last five games and an average of 2.60 runs/9 innings. Going back even further the Angels are hitting just .190 their last ten games and averaging 2.70 runs/9 innings. L.A. is 25th in runs scored per 9 innings this season, 25th in hitting, 18th in OPS and as a team they strike out 9.82 times per game which is last in the Bigs. It won’t come easy today for the struggling Angel hitters facing Dean Kremer who is 2-1 on the season with a 2.48 ERA and 129 WHIP. The right-handed Kremer should shut down an Angels lineup that is hitting .195 as a team against righties in their last ten games. Baltimore doesn’t have great overall numbers on the season with an offense that is 22nd in runs/9 innings at 4.20, 27th in team batting average at .231 25th in OPS and 27th in strikeouts. Baltimore will have a tough time producing runs against the left-handed starter Sandoval for the Angels who is 3-3 on the year with a 3.09 ERA. The O’s are hitting just .194 and scoring 2.60 runs/9 innings against Lefties their last ten games. Combined these two teams are on a 6-11 Under streak with both teams averaging below 8 total runs per game in their last ten.

#973/974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Cleveland Guardians vs KC Royals, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - We really like the way KC’s offense is performing right now. They just scored 22 runs in a 4 game series (5.5 RPG) vs Houston who has the best pitching staff in MLB right now. Over their last 10 games the Royals are hitting nearly .270 vs right handed pitchers and their games have averaged 9.7 total runs during that stretch. They’ll face Civale for Cleveland who has an ERA of 7.40 and opposing hitters have a batting average of .296. He’s been really poor in his 5 road starts this season with an ERA of almost 10.00! In his 5 road starts, the opponents have scored a total of 42 runs which is an average of 8.4 RPG. The Guardians are coming off a 4 games series in which they were swept @ Detroit and their pitching staff as a whole allowed 28 runs in that series (7 RPG) to the light hitting Tigers. Cleveland should have success offensively vs KC starter Singer who started the season very well but has fallen off as of late. Since the start of June Singer has an ERA of 5.70 and he’s allowed 46 baserunners in those 33 innings. He's also allowed 8 HR’s in those 33 innings and his ERA at home is nearly 5.00 on the season which is much higher than his road ERA. In his 1 meeting with Cleveland this season, Singer pitched 3 innings and allowed 4 ER’s for an ERA of 12.00. Dating back to last season, these 2 A.L. Central foes have averaged 9.9 total RPG over their last 10 meetings. We see a similar outcome tonight and we like the OVER.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 9.5 Runs Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 PM ET - These same two teams recently meet and produced total runs of 11, 18 and 12 and we see more of the same starting today. In fact, these same two pitchers just squared off in that series and in that game the two teams produced 18 runs, pounded out 21 hits and stranded 12 total baserunners. Dallas Keuchel (Arizona) pitched 5 innings and allowed 6 hits and 6 earned runs. Austin Gomber (Colorado) lasted 5.2 innings, giving up 6 hits and 4 earned runs. Gomber is 4-7 on the season with a 6.53 ERA and 1.45 WHIP and he won’t get much help from a Rockies bullpen which is the 3rd worst in MLB with a 4.75 ERA. Dallas Keuchel was 2-5 for the White Sox with a 7.88 ERA this season before being traded to the D’Backs recently. He is 0-1 for Arizona with a 9.64 ERA in 9.3 inning of work. Arizona has the 6th worst team ERA in the Bigs at 4.39. In their last ten games each, the Rockies games have averaged 9.50 runs per game while the D’Backs and opponents have averaged 11.60. Colorado has pounded left-handed starters of late with a .310 team batting average and 5.77 runs per game over their last ten. In Arizona’s last ten games overall they have combined to 9 or more runs eight times. Bet OVER here.

#976/976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – LA Angels vs Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - The Angels offense has fallen off a cliff as of late. In their last 4 games they have scored a grand total of 5 runs on 11 TOTAL hits! That’s an average of 1.25 runs on 2.75 hits per game their last 4. Going back further the Angels are averaging 2.6 RPG with a batting average of only .183 their last 10 games. LA will be facing left hander Rogers tonight and while his numbers haven’t been great this season, his xFIP and xERA are almost a full run less than his actual ERA while his BABIP is quite high at .317 telling his he’s been unlucky. The Angels have seen very little of Rogers in the past (just 4 total plate appearances) and they have struggled vs lefties ranking 24th in batting average (.229) while averaging just 3.6 RPG. Miami’s offense hasn’t been great either as of late averaging just 3.5 RPG over their last 10. They have been held to 3 runs or fewer in 8 of their last 11 games. We don’t expect them to break out of their slump vs LA’s Ohtani who has been fantastic on the mound allowing just 1 ER in his last 4 starts spanning 27 innings. He’s striking out over 12 batters per 9 innings which is bad news for a Miami offense that K’s almost 9 times per 9 innings (26th in MLB). Last night Miami topped the Angels 2-1 and the teams combined for just 11 total hits. We see a similar outcome tonight and we grab the Under.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 9.5 Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, 8:10 PM ET - To start with both teams have favored the Under this season and most recently they are a combined 12-6 Under in their last 18 games. In fact, in both teams last ten games the Twins and their opponents have averaged 7.80 runs per game, the White Sox and their foes have averaged 8.20 RPG. The Twins send Chris Archer to the hill with his 2-3 overall record and 3.08 ERA. In his last four starts Archers has given up just 9 total hits and 3 earned runs in 17 innings of work. Michael Kopech has pitched better than his 2-5 record with a 2.78 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. In Kopech’s last ten starts the White Sox and opponents have topped 9 runs just three times. Minnesota is averaging 4.52 runs/9 innings (12th) while the White Sox are 21st in runs/9 innings at 4.24. The numbers also suggest a lower scoring game when it comes to these teams playing home/away facing right-handed starters (both righties here). Minnesota averages 4.79 runs per 9 innings when away from home, Chicago averages 3.62 runs/9 innings.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays, 1:37 PM ET - This will be the 5th game of the series with each team winning two of the four games. Tampa Bay took the double-header sweep yesterday with a 6-2 win and 11-5 victory. Both teams have used their bullpens extensively which means they’ll need strong outings from the starters, and we don’t see that happening in this one. Both teams have hot bats right now as they combined for 25 hits in Game 2 yesterday and 18 in Game 1. The night before they belted out 20 hits in their 11-run game. The opening game of the series had just 5 runs scored but they had 14 total hits and should have produced at least 7 runs in that game. Shane Baz will get the start for Tampa Bay and in 4 starts he is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA with three of those four contests finishing with 8 or more runs. In his two road starts he has a 5.40 ERA. Baz may be in trouble against this Jays lineup that is hitting .282 against right-handed starters their last ten games and scoring an average of 6.40 runs/9 innings. The Blue Jays will counter with Ross Stripling who is 4-2 on the season with a 3.12 ERA. In the last three games Stripling has started the Rays and their opponents have scored 11, 14 and 15 total runs. Without strong bullpens we should see plenty of runs in this one.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 9.5 Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays, 7 PM ET - Two of the best offenses in the Bigs square off Monday in what sets up to be a higher scoring game. The Sox rank top 5 in runs/9 innings, team batting average and OPS. Boston has averaged 4.81 runs per game this season but in their last ten games they’ve upped that to 5.10. Toronto’s offense ranks in the top nine in runs/9 innings at 4.77, 4th in team average (.255), 3rd OPS, 5th in home runs and 9th in strikeouts. Much like the Red Sox the Jays scoring is up in their last ten games as they average 5.30 runs/9innings which has led to a 9-1 Over streak. The Red Sox will send Connor Seabold to the mound who has yet to make a Big League start this season and he couldn’t be in a worse situation facing this red-hot Blue Jays lineup on the road. The Jays have Kevin Gausman slated to start and while he has decent overall numbers with a 3.19ERA, he has given up 7 earned runs in his last 8.1 innings of work, both games the Jays lost with 12 and 13 runs being scored. Plenty of runs in this one!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 9.5 Oakland A’s @ Kansas City Royals, 4:10 PM ET - Two of the worst run producing teams in the Big Leagues face off Saturday and we don’t see either team scoring many runs here. The A’s produce just 3.15 runs/9 innings which is 2nd to last in MLB. They are the worst hitting team at .208, 30th in OPS and 29th in home runs. Kansas City isn’t much better averaging 3.92 runs/9 innings with the 21st worst team average at .237, 25th OPS ranking and rank 28th in home runs. In their last thirteen games the A’s and their opponents have scored more than 9.5 runs just three times. In the Royals last ten games they have combined for over 9 runs with their opponent just once. Oakland really struggles to hit right-handed starters with a .201 team average and 2.73 runs per game. The Royals starter Keller has pitched better than his 1-8 record would indicate and he’s coming off his best game of the season which was against this same A’s team. Keller pitched 7 strong innings versus the A’s allowing just 1 hit and 0 earned runs in the Royals 2-0 win. Jared Koenig will take the mound for the A’s with a 1-2 record on the season and a 6.59 ERA. Koenig has inflated numbers with two of his starts coming against the Red Sox and Braves who are 5th and 8th in runs scored per game. His best outing of the season came against this Royals team when he pitched 5.2 innings allowing 0 earned runs and just 2 hits. The numbers don’t add up and we can’t see either team scoring many runs in this setting.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers, 8 PM ET - Washington will start reliever Paolo Espino and then go with a bullpen mentality throughout this game. Espino has started two games and pitched 8.2 innings while allowing 7 total hits and 3 earned runs. The Nats bullpen is ranked 6th worst in the league with an 4.49ERA, 1.39 WHIP and they’ve give up the 3rd most homeruns on the season at 39 which is bad news facing Texas. The Rangers offensive numbers aren’t great as they rank 17th in runs/9 innings at 4.43 and have a team average of .236 but they are 7th in home runs at 1.23 p/game. Texas is sending right-handed Dane Dunning to the hill who is 1-5 on the season with a 4.38ERA. Dunning has allowed 5 earned runs in 3 of his last five starts, 4 or more four times. We should see the Nationals scoring gradually go up as they are 8th in team average at .252 but average just 4.17 runs/9 innings which is 22nd. In each teams last ten games they have combined with their opponents to average over 9.5 runs per game. We like Over 9 in this one.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 9 runs Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox, 8:10 PM ET - The Orioles are coming off a rain suspended game in Washington and are in a tough travel situation here. The good news is last night’s starter for the O’s, Tyler Wells, pitched 5 strong innings so the bullpen essentially had the night off if they are needed here. That may not be the case as Baltimore sends Dean Kremer to the mound who is 1-1 with a 2.35 ERA and one of his starts was against the Guardians who are 10th in the Big Leagues in scoring. The White Sox are 20th in runs per/9 innings and really struggle against right-handed pitchers with a .242 team average but they average just 3.77 runs per game against righties. Chicago will send Johnny Cueto to the hill who is much better than his 0-3 record. Cueto has a 3.53 ERA and 1.21 WHIP and he’s faced a brutal schedule with games against four teams (of six) that rank in the top half of the league in runs/9 innings. Baltimore will have a tough time scoring here with a lineup that hits just .225 against right-handers on the season, just .180 their last five games with an average of 2.70 runs per game. Both teams struggle to score runs overall and the current pitching matchup sets up for a solid Under wager.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 9.5 RUNS L.A. Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds, 6:40 PM ET - It all starts with pitching in this match up with a pair of solid starters in Tyler Mahle for the Reds and Tony Gonsolin for the Dodgers. Gonsolin is unbeaten this season at 8-0 with a 1.42 ERA and even though is xFIP is elevated at 3.68, the Reds don’t have a lineup capable of taking advantage. Cincinnati is 16th in runs per game on the season at 4.35, but in their last three games they have produced just 3.33 runs/per game. As a team the Reds hit just .232 against right-handed starters this season, they rank 22nd in overall OPS at .686 and are 18th in strikeouts per game. The Dodgers are one of the highest scoring teams in the league at 5.02 but recently they’ve struggled to put up runs at 3.67 in their most recent three games. Mahle has pitched better than his 2-5 record and 4.46 ERA. His xERA is 3.23 and his xFIP is 3.83. He has pitched four strong games in a row allowing 4 total earned runs in 27.2 innings of work. In Gonsolin’s last five starts he’s allowed 4 total earned runs and pitched a pair of shutouts with all five games staying below the total. Both teams are missing some key offensive personnel and with reliable starters we can’t see this game getting to 10 runs.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs, 2:20 PM ET - Let’s face it, the Braves may score enough runs to push this game Over the number. Atlanta has been on fire with 14 straight wins and the offense has been sensational. The Braves have scored 42 runs in their last five games alone and have averaged 7.21PPG during this winning streak. Atlanta is 7th in runs/9 innings at 4.84, 11th in team average at .249 and 1st in OPS and 2nd in home runs at 1.53 per game. The Braves should have plenty of scoring opportunities against Cubs starter Keegan Thompson who has struggled in 3 straight starts, most recently giving up 5 runs to the Yankees in one inning of work. The Cubs pitchers have allowed 6, 19, 12, 4, 18 and 8 runs in their last six games. The Cubs should also get their fair share of scoring opportunities against Charlie Morton of the Braves who is 4-3 on the year with an ERA of 5.67. In his last four starts Morton has allowed a total of 16 runs, 24 hits in 20.1 innings of work. Chicago has scored 14 total runs in their last three games and should contribute enough in this game to push this Over the number.

#917/918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Minnesota vs Seattle, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - Both of these teams were shutout yesterday which gives us some value here. We have this total set closer to 9 with our power ratings. Prior to yesterday’s 6-0 loss vs Tampa Bay, the Twins were averaging almost 7 RPG their prior 8 contests. Before Sunday’s 2-0 loss vs Boston, the Mariners were averaging almost 5 RPG their previous 9 games. Both teams are averaging more than 8.5 total RPG this season in their contests and over the last 10 games Minnesota games are averaging 11.6 total RPG and Seattle games are averaging 9.2 total RPG. Each starter is due for a regression as their ERA’s are lower than both their xERA’s and xFIP’s. Minnesota’s Archer has an xFIP of 5.10 and Seattle’s Flexen has an xFIP of 4.98 which is a solid indicator that neither is pitching as well as their actual ERA’s might indicate. Current players on both teams are hitting over .300 lifetime vs each of these 2 starting pitchers. Flexen has faced Minnesota once this season and allowed 3 ER’s in 4 innings allowing 5 hits and 3 walks. Archer has not faced Seattle yet this season. Both bullpens rank in the bottom half of MLB in ERA and Minnesota relievers have allowed the 2nd most HR’s this season (36) while the Seattle bullpen has allowed the 4th most (32). We like this game to get to at least 9 total runs.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 8.5 Chicago Cubs @ New York Yankees, 1:35 PM ET - Granted the Yankees are one of the highest scoring teams in the league at 4.90 runs per game but the Cubs are 18th at 4.29 runs per game and this situation warrants an Under wager. It all starts with the pitchers slated to take the bump here with Keegan Thompson for the Cubs and Jameson Taillon. Taillon is 6-1 on the season with 62.2 innings pitched and in three of his last four starts he’s gone 7 or more innings. He has a season ERA of 2.73 and has allowed more than 3 runs just one time this season which was his last outing so expect a focused effort here. What makes Taillon especially hard to score runs on is his base-on-balls percentage of .86 which is one of the better averages in the Big Leagues. The Cubs will counter with Thompson who is also 6-1 on the season with an ERA of 3.17 and WHIP of 1.14. Chicago has really struggled to score runs of late averaging just 2.2 runs per game in their last five games and hitting just .092 with runners in scoring position. Over the course of 3-games, the Cubs currently have the worst team hits per run scored 5.25. At that current rate, if the Cubs get their average hits per game of 8.16 they’ll score under 2 runs in this one. We like a lower scoring game here. Bet UNDER.

#977/978 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9.5 Runs – Oakland vs Atlanta, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET - This total opened 9 which is very close to where we had our power ratings set at 8.7. Now it has moved up to 9.5 so we are getting nearly a full run of value according to our ratings so we’ll grab the Under here. Oakland continues to struggle on offense. After scoring 2 runs yesterday, they have now scored 2 runs or fewer in 6 of their last 7 games. The A’s offense ranks either 29th or 30th (out of 30 teams) in RPG, batting average, OPS, and HR’s per 9 innings. They are facing a pitcher nobody on the Oakland roster has ever seen in Ian Anderson. He’s pitched better than his overall numbers this year as his ERA is 4.70 but his xERA is 3.63. Anderson had a 3.58 ERA for Atlanta last year in 24 starts which is very close to his xERA this year telling us that is about where he should be. Oakland will send rookie Jared Koenig to the hill for his first ever MLB appearance. His numbers for AAA Las Vegas have been very impressive with a 2.21 ERA and a K to walk ratio of 10.5 to 2.5 per 9 innings. He has allowed 1 ER or less in 4 of his last 5 starts for Vegas. We expect Atlanta to struggle offensively early on especially with none of their hitters having any experience vs Koenig. Over the last 10 games for each of these teams combined (20 games total) only 6 have gone Over 9 runs. The current total of 9.5 is set too high and we like the Under.

#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Seattle vs Houston, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - These 2 A.L. West teams have already met 9 times with 6 going Under the total. Only once have they played a game this season that scored more than 9 runs and in 6 of the 9 meetings they’ve scored 7 or less. Their 9 meetings this season have averaged 6.3 total RPG. Javier is on the mound for Houston and he’s been lights out. In his 6 starts he has allowed 2 ER’s or less in 5 and 1 ER or less 4 times. He completely shut down Seattle the only time he faced them this season not allowing a single ER in a Houston 4-0 win. His ERA at home this season is 0.38 with a WHIP of 0.72! The M’s counter with veteran Robbie Ray, who won the Cy Young award with Toronto last season, but he’s been up and down this year. However , he has allowed 4 ER’s or less in 8 of his last 9 starts and he has not faced Houston this season which is an advantage to him. On top of that, the Astros have really struggled vs left handed pitchers this year hitting just .212 while averaging only 2.9 runs per 9 innings. Houston has been a massive UNDER team this year with 39 Unders and just 15 Overs. Their bats aren’t great (21st in RPG) especially vs lefties as we mentioned but their pitching staff has been outstanding. They are 3rd overall in team ERA and they have the #1 bullpen in MLB with a 2.64 ERA. Dating back to the end of last season, Houston is now 45-16 to the UNDER! Seattle has a poor road record and they’ve struggled offensively away from home with a .225 batting average and 3.6 RPG. Seattle road games have averaged just barely 8 total RPG while Houston home games have averaged 6.4 total RPG. Over the last 10 games, Seattle is averaging less than 8 total RPG and Houston is averaging less than 7 total RPG. We look for another low scoring game tonight.

#955/956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – San Diego vs Milwaukee, Thursday at 7:40 PM ET - The Padres are struggling to put runs on the board right now. They are coming off a 3 games series in St Louis where they scored a total of 7 runs. They have not topped 4 runs in any of their last 9 games. Going back further San Diego has topped 4 runs just 2 times in their last 15 games! In their last 8 games the Under is 6-0-2. They’ll be facing Adrian Houser for Milwaukee who just shut them down in San Diego last week allowing 1 ER in 6 innings. The Milwaukee pitching staff as a whole has been great at home this year allowing only 3 RPG. The Brewers have been solid offensively this season, however their kryptonite has been left handed pitchers. For the season they are hitting just .209 vs south paws while averaging 3.7 RPG. Over the last 10 games Milwaukee has hit just .162 vs lefties. They face a good one tonight in Sean Manaea. His overall ERA is 4.02 but he’s pitched better than that with an xERA and xFIP right around 3.50. He’s allowed 3 ER’s or less in 7 of his 9 stars and the current Brewer roster has a total of 14 career plate appearances vs Manaea giving him an extra edge here. These 2 just met in San Diego last week in a low scoring series with games totaling 3, 5, and 5 runs. The 2 teams were only able to muster 39 hits combined in 3 games, or just 13 per game. Dating back to last year, 9 of the last 10 meetings have totaled 8 or fewer runs. We like the UNDER tonight in Milwaukee.

#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – Atlanta vs Arizona, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - Arizona sends their ace Gallen to the mound this evening. He’s been lights out all season long with the exception of one outing, his most recent start. He gave up 6 ER’s in just 5 innings of work last week vs KC but prior to that he had allowed 2 ER’s or less in every start (7 starts). Good pitchers bounce back from poor outings and we look for Gallen to pitch very well tonight. Opposing hitters have a batting average of just .170 vs Gallen and his WHIP is a miniscule 0.83. He has faced current Atlanta hitters in 22 total plate appearances so most have not seen him. In those 22 AB’s he has not allowed a hit. He’s facing a light hitting Braves team with a BA of just .232 on the season (22nd in MLB) but on the road Atlanta hits just .212 this season. The Braves will go with a “bullpen game” here starting reliever Spencer Strider. They hope to get 3 or 4 innings out of him and if so they should be in good shape. Strider has been fantastic out of the bullpen this year allowing just 14 hits in 25 innings pitched and 6 ER’s. None of the Arizona hitters have ever faced Strider so he should have a big time advantage the first time through the line up. After he exits, Atlanta has a solid bullpen ranking 10th in ERA, 9th in WHIP and 4th in HR’s allowed. The DBacks offense continues to sit near the bottom of the Majors in RPG (24th) and batting average (29th). They are coming off a 4 game series vs LA Dodgers in which they scored a total of 8 runs. Arizona’s home games are averaging less than 8 total RPG this season and Atlanta’s road games are also averaging less than 8 RPG. We like the UNDER on Monday night.

#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Pittsburgh vs San Diego, Saturday at 10:10 PM ET - Both of these offenses have been below average all season long and both are struggling as we speak. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in RPG, 27th in batting average and OPS, and 25th in HR’s per 9 innings. San Diego sits at the middle of the pack (15th) in runs scored but that doesn’t match up with their other key stats so they’ve been a bit lucky in that regard. The Padres are 23rd in both batting average and OPS and 27th in HR’s per 9 innings. Over their last 10 games Pittsburgh is averaging 3 RPG and San Diego is putting up just 3.3 RPG. The Pirates have topped 4 runs only ONCE in their last 14 games and they are averaging just 2.5 RPG during that stretch and that includes a 10 run output vs Colorado. San Diego has topped 3 runs only 3 times in their last 10 games. San Diego sends their ace to the mound today. Joe Musgrove has not allowed more than 2 ER’s in any of his 8 starts this season and opponents are hitting just .208 against him. At home this year his ERA is 1.80 with a WHIP of 0.75. He always brings some extra juice vs the Pirates who traded him to the Padres in 2021. In his only meeting with Pittsburgh this season, Musgrove allowed 1 ER in 7 innings of work. JT Brubaker is on the hill for Pittsburgh. His overall numbers are better than his 4.64 ERA might indicate. His xERA and xFIP are both lower than his ERA and he's allowing opponents to hit just .222. In his last 7 starts Brubaker has allowed more than 3 ER’s just once and he’s coming off his most impressive outing of the season holding Colorado to 0 ER’s in 6.2 innings. Last night these 2 totaled 7 runs but did so on just 11 hits. Tonight we see a pitcher’s duel and this one stays UNDER the total.

#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Cleveland vs Detroit, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET - Weather is not looking conducive for scoring in this one. Light rain and 10+ MPH winds blowing in from center field. Detroit’s offense has been poor all season ranking dead last in RPG and OPS. The Tigers are averaging just 2.8 RPG on the season and just 2.6 RPG over their last 10. Cleveland has OK overall offensive numbers but over their last 10 games they are hitting just .199 as a team and on the road vs lefties just .193 for the season. They’ll be facing one of the top left handers in MLB tonight in Tarik Skubal. He has allowed just 7 ER’s over his last 7 starts and in 5 of those starts he has held his opponent scoreless. He faced Cleveland on May 20th and held the Indians scoreless through 5 innings before leaving after taking a line drive off his lower leg. He is fine and will make the start tonight. Cleveland will be going with a “bullpen” game tonight. They will start lefty Pilkington but we only expect a few innings from him. He’s been solid in his first year in the Majors with an ERA of 2.08 and a WHIP of 1.04 mainly out of the bullpen. Nobody in Detroit’s line up has ever faced him giving Pilkington a nice edge early in the game and with an early exit expected we don’t anticipate the Tiger hitters facing him more than once or twice in this one. After he exits, Detroit’s bullpen has very good numbers. They rank 2nd in ERA in MLB and 2nd in WHIP so we expect Cleveland’s offense to continue their struggles. The Tigers are 29-13 to the UNDER this season and we expect another low scoring game tonight.

#907/908 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – Washington vs Milwaukee, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - The Washington offense has scored a grand total of 1 run in this series thus far in 2 games. They have scored 2 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games and those 9 games have totaled less than 8.5 runs 6 times. The chances of them getting on track offensively in this one are not good. Peralta is on the mound for Milwaukee and his ERA is 3.52 on the season but he’s pitching much better than that right now. He had 1 poor outing in mid April allowing 6 ER’s in just 3 innings vs St Louis throwing off his season long numbers. Since that outing he has allowed 5 ER’s in his last 5 starts. In those 5 starts he has 38 strikeouts and just 6 walks. The Milwaukee pitching staff as a whole is allowing just 2.8 RPG at home and with Washington struggling right now, that trend should continue. The Nats will throw Aaron Sanchez who doesn’t have great seasonal numbers with a high ERA but he’s pitching better than that. His ERA is 7.94 which is by far the highest of his career, but his xERA (expected ERA) based on how he’s actually pitched this season is 4.50 and his xFIP is 4.49 indicating he’s actually pitching OK this year. His BABIP (batting average balls in play) is a very high .359 which tells us he’s had some tough luck so far this season. In his career vs current Brewer hitters he’s allowed a batting average of just .222 with on OBA of .291 so very solid. Milwaukee games have stayed under this current total of 8.5 in 4 of their last 5 games including both in this series (6 & 7 total runs). We like the UNDER in this one.

#965/966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Cincinnati vs Cleveland, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - Two big time OVER teams facing off here as the Reds are 22-12-2 to the OVER and the Guardians are 20-14 to the OVER. Both teams have been playing well offensively as of late with Cleveland averaging 4.95 RPG over their last 10 and Cincinnati averaging 5.93 their last 10. Cleveland sends Quantrill to the hill and while his ERA is a solid 3.93, his xERA (expected ERA) and xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) are both quite a bit higher telling us he’s been a bit lucky this season. Tyler Mahle is pitching for the Reds and his ERA is approaching 6.00 and actually dropped the last 2 games as he allowed only 2 ER’s in each. However, both of those outings were vs Pittsburgh who is 26th in batting average and 29th in total runs scored on the season. Cleveland is 7th in MLB in RPG and 5th in batting average so Mahle will have a tougher go of it today. Both pitchers struggle with walks so we expect plenty of base runners today. The ump behind the plate today is Jerry Meals who has called balls & strikes 6 times this year and his games have averaged 11.5 total runs. We like OVER this afternoon.

#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - We’ve played many more UNDERS this year than OVERS and cashed in nicely on most of them. The UNDERS have cashed at over 56% so far this season (non extra inning games). That being said, the Reds are a full blown OVER team right now. They have the best OVER record in MLB by a long shot at 21-9-1. Their pitching staff is weak and their offense is clicking right now. After losing 20 of 21 games between April 12th and May 5th, the Reds have now won 4 of their last 6 and their offense is red hot averaging over 8 RPG in those 6 contests. Cincy is now 13-1-1 to the OVER in their last 15 games. Pittsburgh’s offense has also been playing much better as of late putting up just over 4 RPG over their last 10 hitting .250 as a team during that stretch. The Reds pitching staff is dead last in team ERA by a longshot at 6.61 while Pittsburgh has the 3rd worst ERA in MLB at 4.81. The scheduled starters are Brubaker for Pittsburgh and Overton for Cincinnati. Advantage to the hitters in this game as both teams just faced off vs these pitchers last week so they’ve seen them very recently. That match up went to Pittsburgh 9-2 so easily over the total. Cincy struggled a bit vs Overton which was to be expected as he was making his first start ever vs the Reds and just the 5th start of his career. The Reds should have a much better showing offensively in this game seeing him for the 2nd time in a week. Once we get to the bullpens we have 2 of the worst in the Majors (30th and 25th in bullpen ERA) so we don’t expect these offenses to slow down late in the game. We’re on the OVER in this one.

#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Colorado vs San Francisco, Wednesday at 3:45 PM ET - The Rockies have their best pitcher going today with Chad Kuhl on the hill. He has allowed a grand total of 5 ER’s on the season in his 4 starts. He’s given up just 2 HR’s in 4 games with a 0.84 WHIP and opponents are hitting just .157 vs Kuhl. His 4 starts have averaged just 6.25 total RPG. He will be opposed by a pitcher we feel is drastically undervalued right now. The Giants send Cobb to the hill and his numbers are much higher than they should be. His overall ERA is 4.80, however his xERA (expected ERA) based on how he has pitched this season is just 1.24 and his xFIP is a very low .205 which is the 3rd lowest of all starting pitchers taking the hill today. Those numbers tell us he is pitching MUCH better than his ERA indicates. We’ve discussed the Rockies overall offensive numbers many times within our analysis on their games. Their overall offensive stats look very good. However, much of that success has come at home in the high altitude. On the road this team is hitting just .233 and averaging less than 3 RPG. Versus right handers on the road the Rockies are squeezing out only 2.05 RPG on the season. The Giants offense has been humming in the first 2 games of this series putting up 17 total runs, however they have faced two lower tier starters for Colorado. In their previous 6 games leading into this series, San Fran was averaging just 3.6 RPG and that INCLUDED a 13 run outburst vs the Cardinals Steven Matz who has an ERA north of 7.00. Two top notch starters keep this game low scoring this afternoon.

#921/922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Kansas City vs Texas, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET - The top starters for each team on the hill today and with the total set at 8 we like the UNDER in this one. Keller is the starter for KC and he has 5 starts under his belt allowing just 6 ER’s all season. In his last 3 starts he’s pitched 13.1 innings and allowed 1 ER. His WHIP is an impressive 0.84 and opposing hitters have a batting average of just .168 vs Keller. Texas sends Perez to the mound and he’s a bit undervalued right now in our opinion. His first 2 starts of the season were a bit shaky but he’s pitched really well as of late. Over his last 3 starts, spanning 20 innings, Perez has allowed only 1 ER on only 8 total hits. Opposing batters are hitting barely over .200 vs the lefty. KC is averaging just 2.4 RPG vs left handers so with how well Perez has been pitching, we see him having great success here. Neither team is lighting it up offensively. Both rank near the bottom of MLB in both batting average and OPS. KC is putting up an average of just 3.1 RPG on the season and Texas is at 4.1 RPG. The Rangers have been a bit fortunate to get to that number as their overall offensive numbers (BA, OPS, HR’s) are not that of a team averaging 4.1 RPG. If we narrow it down to more recent results, over the las 10 games the Royals are averaging 2.73 RPG and the Rangers are at 3.13. These 2 starting pitchers have combined for 10 starts this year and only once has a game topped 8 runs. We don’t see either of these offenses having much success and we’ll grab the UNDER tonight.

#961/962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Oakland vs Detroit, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - Two of the worst and coldest offenses going at it head to head tonight in this one. Oakland ranks 25th in RPG, 29th in batting average, 30th in OPS, and 25th in HR’s. Detroit ranks 30th, 26th, 29th and 30th in those categories respectively. Both teams also strikeout a LOT with both whiffing almost 10 times per 9 innings. Both have been terrible vs right handed pitchers this season and especially as of late with Oakland averaging 1.83 RPG with a BA of .174 and Detroit averaging 2.02 RPG with a BA of .202 their last 10 games. The A’s are off a series in Minnesota where they scored 4 total runs in 3 games and they’ve been held to 3 runs or less in 12 of their last 14 games. Detroit is off a series in Houston where they scored 6 total runs in 4 games and they’ve scored 3 runs or less in 13 of their last 16 games. Blackburn takes the mound for Oakland and he’s been their best starter this year allowing just 6 ER’s in 24 innings with a WHIP of 0.95. He’s coming off his worst outing of the season, allowing 3 ER’s vs a red hot Tampa Bay offense, and we expect him to pitch very well today. Pineda has been solid for the Tigers with a 3.77 ERA on the season and he’s been consistently good for 3 seasons now with his highest ERA at 3.62 during that span. Both pitchers have great K to walk ratios and we mentioned both offenses struggle with strikeouts. These teams have combined record of 34-20-1 to the UNDER this year and with the wind blowing in from left tonight at 10 to 15 MPH, this sets up nicely for a low scoring game. We’re on the UNDER.

#905/906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - We’ve been cashing in quite regularly with Unders this season but we switch gears and take the Over in this one. The Reds are one of the few teams that has a solid Over record this season (17-9-1 to the Over) and they’ve gone Over the total in 10 of their last 11 games. Their last 11 games have averaged 13 total runs per game. Their pitching has been horrendous which is a big reason for their high scoring games. They are dead last in MLB in both starter’s ERA and bullpen ERA. Today the Reds send Tyler Mahle to the hill and after a solid first start of the season way back on April 7th, he has since allowed 20 ER’s in his last 21 innings spanning 5 starts. Pittsburgh’s starter Thompson has been worse. His ERA is almost 10.00 and his WHIP (walks + hits per inning) is one of the highest in the Majors for a starting pitcher at 2.22. We spoke of Cincinnati’s struggles in the bullpen but Pittsburgh’s relievers are great either ranking in the bottom third of MLB in ERA, hits allowed, and WHIP. The first 2 games of this series 11 and 13 runs with the teams combining for 36 hits and a whopping 54 total baserunners. More struggles for each pitching staff here and another Over is on the way.