#961/962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Milwaukee vs Atlanta, Saturday at 7:20 PM ET - Two of the top starting pitchers in baseball are facing off in this one. Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes is on the hill for Milwaukee and lefty Max Fried will start for Atlanta. In his last 4 starts Burnes has allowed a grand total of 4 ER’s in 28 innings with a whopping 39 K’s (~10 per game) and just 4 walks. Fried has allowed only 5 ER’s in his last 4 starts spanning 24 innings with 22 K’s and 0 walks. We look for very few walks today from these 2 so the opposing batters will have to earn their runs which will be tough. Both starters have the ability to go deep into games but when we do reach the bullpens both are among the best in MLB. Milwaukee has been scoring plenty of runs as of late, however their most recent games have been at home vs the Reds who have the worst ERA in MLB and yesterday vs Atlanta (Brewers scored 6 runs) the Braves went with a reliever who doesn’t start and he gave up 2 ER’s and lasted only 1 inning. Now Milwaukee faces a top of the line starter for the first time in well over a week. On top of that, the Brewers have struggled with left handed pitchers hitting just .218 and averaging a full 1.5+ RPG less than when facing a right hander. On the other side, Atlanta has hit just .220 vs right handers this year and they average a full 1 RPG less than when facing lefties. Both teams strikeout a lot (22nd and 28th in MLB) which will be a big problem vs these pitchers. We don’t foresee many baserunners today (Burnes WHIP is 0.73 & Fried is 0.87) so very few chances to push runners across the plate. Under is the play.

#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Colorado vs Arizona, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - While the DBacks bats did come alive a bit over their last 4 or 5 games, they are still hitting a league low .188 (team batting average) and they are worse at home hitting only .158. The Rockies overall offensive numbers are very solid, however most of their damage has come at home in the high altitude. On the road Colorado is hitting just .230 and barely averaging 3 RPG. The edge goes to both starting pitchers in this game tonight. Arizona starter Kelly has been lights out allowing just 4 ER’s on the season in his 5 starts (29 innings pitched). He hasn’t allowed a single earned run in 3 of his 5 starts and he ranks 2nd in MLB with a 1.27 ERA. The total runs scored in 4 of his 5 starts this season has been 5 or less. Colorado will send Kuhl to the mound and he’s been the Rockies best starter this season. He’s allowed a total of 5 ER’s this year in his 4 starts spanning 24 innings. He has a 1.90 ERA on the season and opposing hitters have a batting average of just .160 vs Kuhl this season. Even at home in the high altitude Kuhl has proven a top notch pitcher allowing just 3 ER’s in 13 innings this season. This game is on the road but that previous stat speaks to how well he is pitching right now. We think both offenses struggle tonight and this one stays Under 8.5 Runs.

#907/908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10.5 Runs – Washington vs Colorado, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET - The Washington bats are red hot right now scoring 38 runs over their last 4 games – 3 vs San Francisco and 1 vs Colorado. That’s almost 10 RPG for the Nats over the last 4 games and they have a whopping 61 hits in those 4 games (15 hits per game average). They have been much better offensively on the road this year hitting .306 as a team and averaging 6.7 RPG. They are facing Rockies starter who has decent overall numbers, however 3 of his 4 starts have come on the road. In his only outing in Denver he allowed 12 baserunners in just 4 innings giving up 5 runs (4 earned). The Colorado offense is among the best in the league ranking 1st in batting average & OPS, 7th in RPG & HR’s. At home they are averaging 6 RPG and hitting .277 as a team. Those numbers spike up vs left handers as the Rockies hit .319 at home and average over 8 RPG. Tonight they face struggling south paw Patrick Corbin who not only has an ERA north of 8.00 this season but he’s also had problems with control walking almost 6 per 9 innings. Once we get past the 2 starting pitchers, it really doesn’t get any better. Colorado ranks dead last in bullpen ERA and WHIP. The Washington relievers ranks 24th and 26th in those 2 categories. The Nationals are 9-1-1 to the OVER in road games this season and these 2 have gone OVER the total in 11 of the last 15 meetings in Colorado. We look for a high scoring game in Denver this evening.

#905/906 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8 Runs – LA Angels vs Chicago White Sox, Monday at 2:10 PM ET - The Sox offense continues to struggle topping 4 runs just TWICE in their last 16 games. That’s even a bit deceiving as one of those times they topped 4 runs was in yesterday’s 6-5 loss to the Angels. All 5 of those runs for Chicago came in the 9th inning! They had 12 hits on the day but half of those (6) came in the final inning as well. It’s not like the WS offense broke out and had a great game. They still rank 27th offensively in RPG, batting average, and OPS. Monday afternoon they face Angel left hander Sandoval who has pitched 15 innings this season and has not allowed an earned run. Dylan Cease is on the hill for the White Sox and while is numbers are very good, he’s actually pitched better than those numbers indicate. His ERA is a solid 3.27 in 22 innings pitched but his xERA (expected ERA) is actually 1.75! He’s also faced the Angels only once since the end of the 2019 season and that was over a year ago on April 4, 2021 giving him an edge on the LAA hitters here in our opinion. LAA pitcher Sandoval is in a similar situation having faced just 14 career plate appearances from the entire White Sox team giving him an edge as well. We mentioned the late scoring push from Chicago yesterday but the Angels did the same. Of the 11 runs scored yesterday, 7 came in the 9th inning. We expect the starters to hand a low scoring game over to the bullpens and the relievers to perform much better on Monday. Under the total is our play.

#967/968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Houston vs Toronto, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - Toronto ace Gausman is on the hill and he has been fantastic this season. He’s allowed just 6 ER’s in 24.2 innings with 31 strikeouts and not a single walk. His fastball hits 96 MPH and his splitter is nearly impossible to hit. Opposing batters have a chase rate (swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone) of 73% on his splitter and 53% on all pitches, both tops in MLB. He’s facing a Houston line up that has averaged just 3.8 RPG this season (21st) and the hitters Gausman has faced on the Astros have a batting average of just .196 vs him. Blue Jay games have totaled 7 runs or less in 3 of Gausman’s 4 starts this season. Offensively, Toronto has scored 2 or fewer runs in 3 of their last 4 games. They will face Houston lefty Framber Valdez today who has been very good in 3 of his 4 starts. His one poor outing vs the LAA, Valdez allowed 6 ER in just 4 innings. In his other 3 starts, he has allowed 1 ER total in 15.2 innings. He has been a consistent pitcher for 2+ seasons now with an ERA of 3.57 in 2020 and 3.14 in 2021. The ump behind the plate today, Nestor Ceja, has called 3 games this year and the average total runs scored in those games is just 5.6. These 2 teams have combined to play 43 games this season with only 15 going Over the total. We expect another low scoring game here and UNDER is our play.

Pitchers with Action: #969/970 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – LA Angels vs Chicago White Sox, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The White Sox have been struggling at the plate to say the least. They rank 24th or lower in RPG, team batting average, and OPS. The Sox have been held to 3 runs or less in 11 of their last 13 games and they have a team batting average of just .186 over their last 10 games. In their last 4 series (all 3 game series) they have scored a grand total of 9, 7, 5, and 9 runs. Those are their offensive outputs for the entire series, not just one game! It won’t get any easier for them tonight facing the Angels starter Syndergaard who has allowed just 4 ER’s in his 3 starts spanning 17 innings. Syndergaard is also a great ground ball pitcher with 58% balls in play staying on the ground which leads to fewer runs. The Angels have much better offensive numbers but they will be facing Chicago’s ace tonight with Giolito on the mound. He has allowed just 1 ER in his 2 starts this season for an ERA of just over 1.00 with a whopping 16 strikeouts in just 8 innings. Giolito has been one of the most consistent starting pitchers in the Majors with an ERA of 3.53 or lower each of the last 3 seasons. Each of these pitchers have had success vs the current lineups for the opposing team with Giolito limiting current Angels to batting average of .195 lifetime and Syndergaard holding current White Sox hitters to a lifetime average of .209. Wind is blowing in from center tonight at 10 to 15 MPH and we expect a low scoring game in this one.

#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8 Runs – Houston vs Texas, Thursday at 2:00 PM ET - Houston sends their ace Justin Verlander to the mound in the series finale. He has allowed just 4 ER’s in 3 starts this season with a miniscule WHIP of 0.74. Lefty Perez is on the hill for Texas and the Astros have really struggled vs southpaws this year with a team batting average of just .189. Houston has averaged just 3.1 RPG this season per 9 innings vs lefties and Perez has some big momentum coming off his best outing of the year holding Oakland scoreless with just 2 hits in 6 innings. Perez has a solid ERA of 3.86 on the season but he’s pitched better than that with an xERA (expected ERA) of 2.86. The Houston offense has struggled all season ranking 20th or lower in RPG, batting average, and OPS. While Texas has averaged 4.7 RPG on the season (7th in MLB) they’ve been a bit lucky as their batting average (19th in MLB) and OPS (21st) don’t align with that number. Much of their success was early with the Rangers averaging 6 RPG through their first 7 games and they’ve dropped to just 3.4 RPG over their last 10. When we get to the relievers Houston has the 8th best bullpen ERA in the Majors and their pen has allowed only 4 HR’s on the season. The Texas bullpen numbers are not good but they were terrible early in the season and they’ve rebounded to pitch very well as of late. Over the last 10 games the Texas bullpen ERA is 3.07 and they’ve allowed opponents to hit just .186. We’re on the UNDER in this one.

#953/954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – LA Dodgers vs Arizona, Wednesday at 3:40 PM ET - Arizona has the worst offense in the Majors. They are dead last averaging 3 RPG, .182 team batting average, and .588 team OPS. The DBacks have scored 3 runs or less in 11 of their 18 games this season and they’ve already been shutout 4 times. They are facing Dodger lefty Urias who has allowed 1 ER in his last 10 innings and has faced the current Arizona line up in 93 total plate appearances and held those batters to a batting average of just .193. On top of that, as bad as Arizona has been offensively, their lowest numbers of the season have come vs left handed pitchers with a batting average of .162 and an average of only 2 runs per 9 innings. It looks like the DBacks may have some momentum after scoring 5 runs yesterday vs these Dodgers but they did so on only 4 hits. In the first 2 games of this series Arizona has total of 7 hits. The LA offense has been great in the first 2 games of this series scoring a total of 7 runs. They now face Arizona’s most consistent starter this season, Zac Gallen, who has allowed just 1 ER in his 2 starts this season. Both of those starts came vs a potent Mets line up that ranks 4th in the Majors in batting average. These 2 teams have combined to play 35 games this season and only 9 have gone Over the total. We look for another low scoring game this afternoon.

#925/926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – Texas @ Oakland, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - These 2 played a low scoring 2-0 game yesterday which sets us up nicely with a lower than anticipated total on Sunday afternoon. Despite not being able to put many runs on the board yesterday, these 2 teams are still highly capable with Texas averaging 5.2 RPG (4th in the Majors) and Oakland averaging 4.3 RPG (13th). Both starting pitchers have had their troubles this season and neither bullpen is very good. Cole Irvin starts for Oakland and he has allowed 8 ER’s this season and is giving up over 2 HR’s per 9 innings. His ERA of 4.32 looks acceptable but his xERA (expected ERA) based on how he’s actually pitched this year is over 7.00. Irvin is a lefty and the Rangers have hit southpaws very well this season with a .278 team BA compared to just .210 vs right handers. Texas will send reliever Garrett Richards to the mound to make his first start of the season. He’s appeared in 4 games this season out of the pen and been terrible, walking an average of 9 per 9 innings and allowing over 2 HR’s per 9 innings. Similar to Irvin, his ERA looks OK at 4.50, however his xERA is actually almost 8.00. Both of these pitchers have been quite lucky this season and we think this total is too low. On top of that, once we get to the bullpens Texas relievers have been poor with the 3rd highest ERA in the league while allowing the most HR’s. Oakland’s bullpen has a much better ERA, however they’ve allowed a bunch of baserunners with a WHIP of 1.40 which is 2nd highest in MLB, so they’ve been a bit fortunate. With this low total we like the OVER.

Pitchers with action NOT listed: #913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – LA Dodgers vs San Diego, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - The Padres offense went through a rough stretch from April 12 through April 17 where they scored 2 runs or less in 5 of 6 games. Despite that they are still 12th in MLB scoring 4.46 RPG. After that 6 game run, they have since scored 16 runs in their last 3 games. The Dodgers offense never hit that lull this season. They are 2nd in MLB scoring 5.43 RPG and they’ve put up at least 5 runs in 7 of their last 9 games. They have dangerous bats up and down their line up and should have a field day vs San Diego starter Martinez who has struggled with walks throughout his career along with giving up the long ball (1.5 HR’s allowed per 9 in his career and 2.7 this season). In his 2 starts this year Martinez has allowed 17 baserunners in 10 innings and giving up 3 long balls. LA starter Urias has a decent ERA of 3.86 through 2 starts but his xFIP is really high at 5.03 and his WHIP is 1.20 which tells us he is not pitching as well as some might think. His xERA (expected ERA) based on his performances this year is actually above 4.50. Urias is a lefty and the Padres have hit much better vs southpaws this season when compared to right handers. With 14 games being played today, that means 28 starting pitchers. In this game we have 2 of the top 7 hurlers (out of 28) with the highest xFIP this season which means both offenses should be successful. We like OVER in this one.

#975/976 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Over 7.5 Runs – Texas vs Seattle, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - If you can get a low total like this on a Texas game early in the season, it’s work a look to the Over. We feel the Rangers will be an Over team this year, especially early on before the oddmakers catch up with them. Their offense has been very solid and their pitching not so much. The Rangers are 3rd in MLB averaging 5.5 RPG and 30th in runs allowed at 6.6. So games involving Texas this year are averaging a whopping 12.1 RPG. They’ve had only 1 game this season fall under 7 total runs. Starting pitcher Gray made 1 start this year on April 8th and allowed 3 ER in 4 innings but hasn’t pitched since due to a blister on this throwing hand. His FIP (fielding independent pitching) vs players in the Seattle line up he’s faced in his career is a terrible 6.20. The Seattle offense struggled out of the gate not topping 4 runs in any of their first 6 games but they are starting to come around plating 5 or more in 3 of their last 4 (averaging 6 RPG over their last 4). Robbie Ray starts for Seattle. He is coming off a Cy Young season with Toronto but we feel that he is vastly overvalued, thus the low total here. His career ERA is north of 4.00 and prior to last season his FIP was never lower than 4.30 (in previous 5 seasons) and 4.20 is average. His WHIP (walks + hits per inning pitched) was north of 1.30 in each of his first 8 seasons. In his 2 starts this year he has allowed 16 base runners in 13 innings and 7 ER’s. Ray is a lefty and Texas is hitting over .300 as a team vs south paws this year. This total is set too low and we’ll grab the Over.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox, Tuesday at 8:08 PM ET – Each of Boston's last 6 games have totaled at least 9 runs and the games have averaged a total of 13.2 runs. The Red Sox just hammered the Astros 9-5 at Houston in Game 2 on Saturday and now, after a huge 12-3 win in Game 3 yesterday at home, they have won 9 of 12 games at Fenway Park. In those 12 games played in Boston, the Red Sox have averaged scoring 6.8 runs per game. The Red Sox should hammer Zack Greinke here. The right-hander has not started since September 19th and also was not overly dominant in his two relief appearances since then. Look for Greinke to be a bit off after the long time between starts and plus he got hammered by Boston when he most recently started against them. The Astros lineup should have a big game as well. Houston has averaged scoring 6.5 runs per game in the month of October and yesterday was the first time they had been held below 5 runs in any of their games this month! The Astros should do some damage against Nick Pivetta as the right-hander was better in day games and road games in the regular season! This is a night game and a home game and Pivetta had a 4.85 ERA in night games and a 5.40 ERA in home games in the regular season. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one easily getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over

#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox, Monday at 8:08 PM ET – Each of Boston's last 5 games have totaled at least 9 runs and the games have averaged a total of 12.8 runs. The Red Sox just hammered the Astros 9-5 at Houston in Game 2 on Saturday and now are back home where they have won 8 of 11 games. In those 11 games at Fenway Park, Boston has averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game. The Red Sox should hammer Jose Urquidy here. The right-hander has not pitched since October 3rd and allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts of the regular season. Look for Urquidy to be a bit off after the long time between starts and also to continue to prove susceptible to giving up the long ball. The Astros lineup should have a big game as well. Houston has averaged scoring 6.8 runs per game in the month of October and has not been held below 5 runs in any of their games this month! The Astros will take advantage of facing Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez as he has a 5.95 ERA in home starts this season! This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over

#971/972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 9:07 PM ET – NOTE: Corey Knebel now starting for LA but only as an opener.  Urias will get the bulk of the work per all reports we have seen.  We like action with this play no matter which pitcher starts.  The Dodgers pitching has been fantastic as they have allowed only 2.3 runs per game in the last 7 games.  The Giants are certainly in line for strong pitching in this one as well with Logan Webb going 7-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his 13 home starts this season.  10 of those 13 starts resulted in an under!  The Dodgers Julio Urias is 14-2 with a 2.67 ERA in his road starts this season!  Urias enters this start in top form with a 1.10 ERA in his last 3 starts.  The Giants Webb has a 1.83 ERA in his last 3 starts overall.  Also, against the Dodgers, Webb has allowed a total of only 3 earned runs in last 3 starts facing them.  Urias, against the Giants, has also allowed a total of only 3 earned runs in his last 3 starts facing them.  Both these guys started earlier in the series and were great.  With playoff pressure at its highest in this winner-takes-all Game 5, look for both lineups to struggle at the plate.  Before the Dodgers big Game 4 win, they had been held to 3 or less runs in 3 of 4 games.  The Giants have averaged only 2.2 runs in this series thus far!  Look for both the righty Webb and the lefty Urias to come up big here and the bullpens are in good shape too considering the off day yesterday.  That being said, after Tuesday's game reached the over because of the Dodgers having a huge game at the plate, look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 4 to 5 runs and even if it reaches 6 that is still a winning ticket based on the 7 that is posted at most books as of mid-day Thursday.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER

#961/962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers, Tuesday at 5:15 PM ET – Charlie Morton starts for the Braves here and he was fantastic in Game 1 of this series. He took the loss in the 2-1 Brewers win but Morton allowed just 3 hits and struck out 9 in 6 innings!  Morton is now 5-2 with a 2.25 ERA in the last 3 post-seasons combined!  Milwaukee starts Eric Lauer in this one.  Lauer had a rough final start of the season but this was after he went 3-0 with a 1.15 ERA in his 5 starts in September.  He can hold the Braves in check here as Atlanta has scored only 2.3 runs per game in this series and the under has cashed in 6 of last 7 Atlanta games.  As for the Brewers sticks, they have now been shutout in back to back games plus only scored 2 runs in their game 1 win.  Dating back to the regular season, Milwaukee has averaged only 2.6 runs per game last 9 games.  That being said, and considering that all 3 games in this series have totaled just 3 runs, look for this one to be yet another tight game throughout with runs again coming at a premium.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8 that is posted at most books as of mid-day Tuesday.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER

#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants, Monday at 9:37 PM ET – The Dodgers Max Scherzer went 15-4 with a 2.45 ERA in the regular season. Though he had a couple of tough late season starts one of those was at Coors Field.  The O/U went 11-20 in his starts this season and he is they type of elite hurler that is capable of completely dominating an opponent every time he steps on the mound.  Look for him to come up with one of those dominating starts here.  Scherzer was dominant for the Nationals in the 2019 post-season.  He is one of those guys you want on the mound in a situation like this one!  As for the Giants, they have a pitcher in top form on the mound for this one!  Alex Wood is a former Dodgers pitcher so he has plenty of post-season experience.  He also enters this start off a September in which he made 3 starts and compiled a 1.38 ERA and San Francisco won all 3 games and all 3 were unders!  We expect another strong performance from Wood here and yet another under being recorded as well!  In 6 career starts against the Dodgers, Wood has a 3.34 ERA and the O/U is 1-4 with a push.  The O/U is 0-4 in the Giants last 4 games against a right-handed starter.  Look for both the righty Scherzer and the lefty Wood to come up big here and the bullpens are in good shape too considering the off day yesterday.  That being said, after Saturday's game reached double digits because of the Dodgers having a huge game at the plate, look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket based on the 7.5 that is posted at most books as of mid-day Monday.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER

#931/932 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays, Sunday at 4:07 PM ET – After the wild 14-6 Red Sox win on Friday, look for things to return to typical playoff baseball in this one. Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen has a 1.93 ERA in his 10 starts this season and 7 of them stayed under the total.  Rasmussen has a 1.20 ERA in his last 3 starts.  Nathan Eovaldi starts for Boston and he has given up only 1 earned run in 11 and 1 / 3 innings in his last two starts.  Also, in Eovaldi's last two home starts versus the Rays he has allowed just 1 earned run on only  6 hits while striking out 18 in 14 innings!  Both teams have been trending heavily to the under in recent weeks and have not had back to back overs in over two weeks. That being said, after Friday's slugfest, look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of early morning Sunday.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER

#939/940 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – St Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET – At first glance and considering Scherzer is on the mound for the Dodgers and this is playoff baseball, one might be leery of playing an over. However, Scherzer was hit hard in each of his last two starts this season. He got rocked for 5 earned runs each time and both games, as you would expect, went over their respective totals. Though he had success against the Cardinals this season, this St Louis team was so hot to close out the season, including at the plate, that it is just hard to doubt the St Louis hitters no matter who they are facing. They also showed strong late season trending to the over in road games. Speaking of strong trending to overs, the Dodgers final 5 games - all at home by the way - all resulted in overs. Not only that, LA scored an average of 9 runs per game in those five games. Wainwright starts for the Cardinals here and allowed 3 homers over 11 innings in his final two starts of the regular season. This included getting roughed up at Milwaukee for 5 earned runs in 4 innings in his final road start of the season. This total is in the 7.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting very close, if not into, double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying some success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 4 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 9 runs (5-4 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over

#915/916 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET – The last time Nick Pivetta faced the Orioles was less than two weeks ago and he struggled badly.  Pivetta allowed 7 hits in less than 4 innings versus Baltimore and was fortunate to get a key double play before he exited or the damage could have been much worse.  Now he faces the Orioles again but this time at Baltimore where their .443 slugging percentage this season ranks 3rd in the AL.  Look for the Orioles hitters to again get to Pivetta early and often in this one as they respond off a rare home shutout loss last night.  Boston should also be hitting well in this game too. The Red Sox have won 7 of last 8 games against Orioles and have averaged scoring 7.8 runs a game during this stretch!  Boston should have no trouble connecting against Baltimore starter Alexander Wells and behind him is one of the worst bullpens in baseball.  Wells is 0-3 with a 7.13 ERA in his 7 starts this season and allowed 5 earned runs in only 5 innings in his most recent start versus the Red Sox.  Of his 7 starts this season, only 2 have been unders.  Boston should crush the ball here but the Orioles also set up well to do much better at the plate than they did last night.  This series has featured back to back unders so far but should finish with a bang.  The five most recent meetings between these teams before this series saw the divisional foes combine to average a dozen runs per game in the 5 meetings.  This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet the Over

#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 or 9.5 Runs – New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET – The Yankees and Blue Jays are involved in the wild card race with the Red Sox and Mariners and A's as 5 teams chasing just 2 spots in the American League! Suffice to say it is playoff pressure with this match-up but it is likely to be these starting pitchers wilting under the pressure. New York starter Jameson Taillon has struggled on the road this season. Taillon has an 8.21 ERA in his last 3 starts (2 on the road) and he has a 5.66 ERA in his 13 road starts this season. The over is 11-2 in those starts on the road! Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the start for the Blue Jays here and, though he has had some success against the Yankees this season, his recent struggles are troubling to say the least. Ryu has a 10.45 ERA in his last 3 starts and could not make it out of the 3rd inning in either of his last two starts. The over is 9-5 in Ryu's home starts and he has an unimpressive 4.92 ERA in those 14 starts. The last time he hosted the Yankees (in June) he gave up a pair of homers and had more walks than strikeouts. Yankees have won 6 straight games and averaged 6 runs per game. The Blue Jays have scored an average of 6 runs per game last 13 games and have won 8 of last 10 at home. This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over

#925/926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET – Yesterday's game was a low-scoring 2-1 Oakland win but this followed an O/U run of 8-0 in the meetings between these teams at Oakland this season.  We look for that over trend to start up immediately again here based on this pitching match-up.  The O/U is 13-7 in Jake Odorizzi's starts this season.  He has a 4.70 ERA away from home and the last time he made a start in this ballpark he allowed 5 earned runs in 3 innings.  The Astros right-hander's counterpart for this one is Paul Blackburn.  The A's right-hander had a start he would rather forget (8 earned runs in 1 and 1 / 3 innings) in his only career start against the Astros.  Also, Blackburn enters this outing struggling over his last 3 starts. Two of those 3 starts were at home and Blackburn allowed 8 runs (7 earned) in 6 and 2 / 3 innings in those two starts at Oakland Coliseum.  The Astros will enjoy success at the plate after being shutdown yesterday.  Houston had won 8 of 12 games and scored an average of 7 runs per game before being held to 1 run yesterday.  Oakland, before the tight 2-1 win yesterday, had scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in last 11 games. This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet the Over

#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9 Runs – Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees, Friday at 7:10 PM ET – Rivalry game and played with playoff intensity as each of these clubs is currently holding a wild card spot but nothing is secure just yet!  Considering that factor as well as this pitching match-up, we should see a very tight low-scoring pitchers duel in this one.  Gerrit Cole gets the start for the Yankees and is off a rare bad start which means you know he will be 100% focused on a bounce back effort here.  Cole is 9-4 with a 2.95 ERA in his road starts this season.  The O/U is 4-10 in those 14 outings away from Yankee Stadium this season.  Nathan Eovaldi starts for Boston here and he has been particularly strong at Fenway Park this season with a 6-3 record and a 2.91 ERA.  Eovaldi enters this outing with a 2.12 ERA in his last 3 starts.  The under is perfect 3-0 in his last 3 starts with the Yankees and he has compiled a 2.55 ERA in those outings.  The under is a perfect 2-0 in Cole's last 2 starts versus Boston and he has totaled 19 strikeouts in the 11 innings over those 2 starts against the Red Sox.  The Yankees are off an over but 6 of 8 games before that had stayed under the total.  The under trend resumes here.  Look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 9 that is posted at most books as of early morning Friday.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER

#965/966 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 8 Runs – Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics, Thursday at 3:35 PM ET – Yusei Kikuchi starts for the Mariners in this one. The Seattle southpaw has been having a dreadful time on the road. From mid-August to now he has made 3 road starts and has been hammered in every single one. The cumulative stats from those outings are 14 earned runs on 18 hits and 7 walks in only 7 and 1 / 3 innings of work! Kikuchi's first start out of the All Star break was also on the road and he allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings. Though he has had some success against the A's this season, his current road struggles have been consistent and have been ugly. Look for him to get rocked in this outing. Oakland counters with Chris Bassitt here and this is going to likely be a tough outing for him. He took a line drive to the face when on the mound August 17th and suffered multiple facial fractures. This will be his first start after that incident and, mentally, that is a tough situation to simply immediately bounce back from. Also going against Bassitt here is the fact he has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his two starts versus the Mariners this season. Seattle has won 4 straight games and scored an average of 5 runs per game in the victories. The Mariners are 12-5-1 to the over in their last 18 games. That includes a recent stretch of unders but given this pitching match-up, the over trending is very likely to resume here. There is strong support for expecting each starter to be a bit "off" in this one and the hitters will take advantage! This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over

#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 5:05 PM ET – Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the Orioles had their best starter, John Means, on the mound. The Yankees have now won 4 of 5 games and had scored 6 or more runs in 4 straight games prior to yesterday's 4-3 win. On Thursday, the Orioles bullpen is more likely to be exposed as Chris Ellis gets the start here. Yes he was solid against the Yankees when he faced them two weeks ago but they'll be better in the rematch. Also, he has averaged less than 5 innings in his 4 starts this season. The Yankees start Jordan Montgomery and he is off a rough road outing. Also, at Baltimore this season Montgomery has allowed 7 earned runs on 12 hits in only 8 innings of work. Ellis has walked 7 in 10 innings over his last two starts and we are expecting plenty of base runners for both clubs in this one. Prior to yesterday's low-scoring loss, the Orioles had allowed an average of 9.7 runs per game over their past 7 games. The over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 games against a right-handed starter. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over

#931/932 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Milwaukee Brewers @ Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET – Low total considering the way these two teams have been swinging the bats and the fact that Freddy Peralta has not been the same since he returned from injury.  Peralta has been a little "off" and has not lasted very long in his two starts since he returned to the rotation.  The O/U is 5-0-1 in Tigers last 6 home games.  Detroit has scored an average of 7 runs a game in their last 5 games at Comerica Park.  Wily Peralta starts for the Tigers in this one.  Peralta has a low ERA last 3 starts but a 1.50 WHIP as he has not been overly sharp and has been a bit fortunate in terms of earned runs allowed.  Now the Detroit right-hander faces a surging Milwaukee lineup.  The Brewers have won 5 straight games and 11 of 14 thanks in part to averaging 6 runs per game in those 11 victories.  In the current 5-game run Milwaukee has averaged 7.6 runs per game.  The O/U on a 5-2 surge in last 7 games and the over trend should continue in this match-up per the above key factors.  This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet the Over

#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET – Does not matter who pitches here really.  The Blue Jays are red hot at the plate. The Orioles have also been swinging the bats quite well and are known for hitting better when at home and also the Baltimore bullpen has been one of the worst in the majors this season.  So probably Zac Lowther gets the start but Mike Baumann and Alexander Wells could also see action here.  What we do know is that Lowther would face a much tougher task than he did in his most recent start as that was against the Royals.  Also, Lowther has a 6.91 ERA in the majors this season and had a 6.53 ERA at the AAA level of the minors this season too.  Baumann also faced the Royals and that is his only MLB appearance and, again, much tougher test here.  Wells has a 7.15 ERA at the MLB level this season and has been hit very hard.  So look for Lowther to start but, again, with these Orioles it just does not matter.  The Blue Jays are expected to start Steven Matz and he has good recent numbers but Baltimore has given some trouble.  Against the Orioles this season he has a 5.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in two appearances.  Orioles are averaging 5.5 runs scored last 8 home games.  Blue Jays during their current 10-1 run, have averaged 8.1 runs scored per victory!  This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet the Over

#927/928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 6:35 PM ET – Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the teams combined for 18 hits.  The day before the teams combined for 19 hits.  Based on Wednesday's pitching match-up, look for this game to get past the 20-mark in hits and we should see plenty of runs as a result.  There is rain expected in Pittsburgh today but it should be confined to the late morning and early afternoon hours so there should be no weather concerns for this game.  Prior to yesterday's under, the over was on a 6-1 run in Tigers games and a 6-0 run in Pirates games.  Detroit starts Matt Manning in this one and he was hammered for 8 earned runs in 3 and 2 / 3 innings in most recent start and that was at home.  Now he is on the road where he is 1-4 with an 8.16 ERA this season.  Pittsburgh starts Mitch Keller in this one.  Keller is off a strong road outing but allowed 7 earned runs in 5 and 1 / 3 innings in prior start and that was at home.  He has struggled at home this season with a 2-7 record and 8.31 ERA and the over is 8-3 in his 11 home starts on the year.  Manning getting hit at a .305 clip on the season and Keller getting hit at a .310 clip on the season.  Two very hittable pitchers and you have two teams that have been swinging the bats well over the past week.  Look for the over trending to resume here as neither one of these teams is known for strength in terms of their relievers either.  The Detroit bullpen has a 5.54 ERA on the road this season.  The Pirates bullpen ranks near the bottom of the National League this season for ERA.  This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet the Over

#969/970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET – Rays 11, Sox 10. That was the final score in extra innings yesterday in a game that was 9-9 after 9 and this continued a season-long trend when these teams are matched up. The over is 11-5 in their meetings including 6-1 in games played at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. Even though Eduardo Rodriguez just had a quality start at Tampa Bay, the Rays have otherwise been a red hot team and Rodriguez has a 5.69 ERA in home starts this season! The Red Sox lefty gave up 5 earned runs in 3 and 2 / 3 innings in most recent start at Fenway. With yesterday's win, Tampa Bay improved to 23-7 last 30 games and have scored, incredibly, an average of 7 runs per game during this stretch! The Red Sox are known for being one of the top hitting teams in baseball when at home and they have scored an average of 8 runs per game in their last 8 as a host. Drew Rasmussen starts for the Rays here and has transitioned well from the bullpen. He has posted solid numbers though he averages only 3 and 2 / 3 innings per start. However, this will be the 3rd time he has faced the Red Sox in a span of 4 weeks and it is going to catch up with him here. The way Boston has been hitting when at Fenway Park is going to flip the script against Rasmussen this time around. The righty has a 4.72 ERA in road outings in his young career. This total is in the 9.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over

#923/924 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Monday at 1:35 PM ET – The Tigers are off of a win in a game at Cincinnati that was a rare pitchers duel. Detroit entered that game against the Reds on a streak of 5 straight overs and allowing an average of 7 runs per game. The Tigers have scored at least 4 runs in 5 straight games and have averaged scoring 7.4 runs during this stretch. If each team gets to at least 4 runs we can not lose this play as that would mean at least reaching a total of 9. That being said, look for the Pirates to do their fair share of the work at the plate in this one too. Pittsburgh has plenty of confidence at the plate as they just wrapped up a high-scoring series at Wrigley Field against the Cubs. The Pirates do tend to hit better at home than on the road and that has held true again this season. Pittsburgh is off an 11-8 loss at Chicago yesterday and the over is now a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 games. The Pirates have scored at least 5 runs in 4 straight games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. Pittsburgh has allowed at least 6 runs in 5 straight games and has allowed an average of 7 runs during this stretch. Tarik Skubal starts for the Tigers and he has a 7.20 ERA in his last two starts and allowed multiple homers in each game. Bryce Wilson starts for the Pirates and he has been roughed up in 2 of his last 3 outings. In those games he compiled an 8.00 ERA and gave up multiple homers in each outing. Look for more of the same here. Skubal has struggled on the road since he came into the bigs. The lefty went 0-3 with 6.86 ERA in road starts last season and his ERA (4.96) this season is more than a full run higher on the road compared to at home. The Detroit bullpen has a 5.60 ERA on the road this season. This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over

#967/968 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 10 Runs – Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 7:07 PM ET – What a rare game for Baltimore yesterday!  Not only did they get a good start from Keegan Akin but their bullpen performed well also and that led to a 4-2 win.  We do not expect lightning to strike twice on back to back days.  The Orioles are starting Matt Harvey and he is 6-14 with a 6.18 ERA on the season.  He is not showing signs of turning it around either as he is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, in his last 3 starts against Toronto, Harvey has been charged with 13 earned runs in 13 and 2 / 3 innings!  That said, the Blue Jays lineup should certainly have a bounce back day.  But that is why Toronto is a high-priced favorite and we just can not trust Toronto starter Steven Matz which is why we are looking to ride the over to victory in this one.  The Blue Jays lefty struggled at Baltimore when he faced the Orioles early in July.  The over is 7-3 in his 10 home starts this season.  Matz has pitched well in day games this season but, under the lights, he is 5-5 with a 4.89 ERA and opponents hitting .299 against him!  The Orioles should get to him again here just like the prior meeting but, at the same time, look for Harvey and the Baltimore relievers that follow him to get pounded in this one.  This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet the Over

#929/930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Chicago Cubs @ Minnesota Twins, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET – The Cubs lineup is, of course, not what it used to be. However, the Twins pitching rotation has been depleted by injuries and Chicago can take advantage of facing John Gant here. The former Cardinals starter will be making his 3rd start since coming to Minnesota. As a result of having previously been with a division rival of the Cubs, they are familiar with him. Gant had a really rough time against the Cubs the last time when he faced them earlier this season and he did not even make it out of the 2nd inning. Also, Gant enters this start in poor current form with an 0-3 record and 9.58 ERA his last 3 starts and the last two of those have been with the Twins. Chicago starter Kyle Davies also expected to have some issues here. Davies is 2-4 with a 4.77 ERA on the road this season. He enters this start in poor current form as you can see with his last two starts even though both were at home! Davies gave up 5 homers and was lucky the damage was not worse than being charged with 6 earned runs in those 10 and 2 / 3 innings at Wrigley Field! The right-hander is facing a Twins team that has been tough on right-handed starters of late. Minnesota was shut down by the Yankees Gerrit Cole, just as most teams are. However, in their other 6 games since August 18th against right-handed starters the Twins have scored an average of 6.7 runs per game. The over went 4-1-1 in those games. The Cubs have also trended over of late with a 5-1-1 mark in their past 7 games. Chicago is off a 13-1 drubbing at the hands of the White Sox on Sunday but the Cubs scored an average of 8.2 runs a game in the 5 contests that preceded that. Last but not least, the Twins bullpen has been one of the weaker ones in MLB this season and the Cubs pen has not been much better and also has struggled on the road. This total is in the 9.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over

#971/972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ Texas Rangers, Monday at 8:05 PM ET –  The Rangers surprised with a 13-2 win yesterday.  Though that type of offensive outburst has been rare for Texas they should carry momentum right into this match-up with a struggling German Marquez.  The Rockies right-hander is 3-7 with a 5.16 ERA on the road this season.  He enters this start in particularly poor form with a total of 12 earned runs allowed in just 7 innings over his past two road starts.  Marquez has allowed 4 homers in his last 3 starts.  The Rangers, despite all the losing, have scored 6 or more runs in 5 of last 10 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in the last 8 games.  The Rockies, despite a horrible road record on the season, have scored better of late on the road.  Colorado is off a shutout win over the Dodgers and they've suddenly won 3 of 4 on the road and scored an average of 6 runs in these games.  The Rockies will be facing the Rangers A.J. Alexy who is a highly touted rookie.  However, despite his solid numbers this season, Alexy averages less than 5 innings per appearance and also this was his first season above the single A level of the minors.  Do not be surprised if he struggles some as this is a big jump up to the majors for him and is only because of the Rangers having a number of starting pitchers on the covid-19 protocol list.  Also, Alexy is unlikely to pitch deep per his track record in the minors.  This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet the Over 

#917/918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers, Friday at 7:10 PM ET –  On the surface, this may not look like an over but there are some interesting aspects to the line here.  By that, we don't just mean the total either.  This looks like it should be an easy Jays win and yet Toronto opened up as a rather moderately priced favorite.  The line has since risen considerably on the Blue Jays but we feel the message with that earlier lower money line from the odds makers is that they are expecting the Tigers to score some runs here (and have a shot at the upset as a result) because certainly the Blue Jays should get their runs here too.  That is also why, in our opinion, this total opened up at a 9.5 which might have seemed, before digging deeper, to be a little on the high side.  Let's dig in!  The starter for the Tigers is Matt Manning and he has a 6.75 ERA his last 3 starts and has been hit hard with 23 hits in 14 and 2 / 3 innings!  The starter for Toronto here is Steven Matz and the Tigers just saw him last week.  He had some success but only recorded one strikeout and now Detroit gets him at home.  The over is 4-1-1 in Tigers last home 6 games and they allowed 46 runs in those games but also did score 10 in their most recent game as a host and are coming off a road trip in which they won 3 of 5.  That helps confidence and, speaking of confidence, the Jays exploded for 7 runs yesterday but they allowed 10 in that one!  Toronto has averaged 6.3 runs last 3 road games and the over is 4-0 in the Blue Jays last 4 games away from home.  Both starters could get lit up here and then the bullpens are likely to have some struggles too.  This total is in the 9.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet the Over 

#967/968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Indians, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET – These teams each reached double digits in hits yesterday.  There were only 4 other games on the board yesterday where each team had at least 9 hits. Those 4 games averaged 16 runs total while the match-up between the Rangers and Indians reached 9 runs for a push on the posted total of 9 runs for the game.  The point is that there certainly could have been more runs yesterday and we feel strongly that we will see those runs today.  Rangers entered yesterday's game scoring an average of 7 runs last 3 games.  The Indians have won 7 of 11 games and have scored an average of about 6 runs per game during this stretch.  Cleveland facing Jordan Lyles on the mound for Texas in this one.  Lyles is 3-7 with a 5.40 ERA in his road starts this season and the over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts overall.  Lyles is off a rare good start versus the Red Sox. He was charged with at least 5 earned runs in each of his 3 preceding starts so the start against Boston was a rarity indeed.  The Indians start Sam Hentges and there have only been 3 unders in his 11 starts this season.  He has an 8.27 ERA on the season and has not recorded a single winning decision in his 11 starts this season.  The Rangers bullpen has a 5.03 ERA on the road this season and the Indians bullpen has good numbers on the season but an unimpressive 4.10 ERA the last 30 days.  Both starters could get lit up here and then the bullpens likely to have some struggles too.  This total is in the 9.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet the Over 

#907/908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET – Taijuan Walker starts for the Mets in this one.  The New York right-hander has struggled badly since the mid-summer Classic.  Post-All Star break Walker has made 7 starts and he is 0-5 with a 7.49 ERA.  Now he faces a Giants team with a .439 slugging percentage this season - tops in the National League.  The Giants starter here is Johnny Cueto.  He is coming back from an injury and could show some rust in this start.  Cueto is 1-3 with a 4.93 ERA on the road this season.  Opponents are hitting .309 against him in those 9 road starts.  Cueto also has been much worse in night games than day games.  Under the lights the Giants right-hander is 2-3 with a 4.78 ERA and opponents hitting .301 against him this season.  The Mets got drilled 8-0 by San Francisco yesterday but should bounce back against Cueto.  New York entered this series having scored 4 or more runs in 5 of last 6 home games.  Expect a bounce back here for the NY lineup and look for the Giants to continue their strong success at the plate.  This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet the Over 

#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 11.5 Runs – Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET – Rockies have won 5 straight but Diamondbacks had won 6 of 7 before back to back losses.  The point being that both teams are playing with quite a bit of confidence right now and we are expecting the bats to rule the day in this one.  Yesterday's game was low-scoring and the Rockies got a big walk-off win in the bottom of the 9th.  This game looks to have some big hits much earlier in the game as Colorado continues to hit well at home but even the road-adverse Diamondbacks get rolling here courtesy of facing a struggling pitcher.  Jon Gray is 0-3 with a 6.14 ERA this month.  He has a 5.00 ERA against Arizona this season and they have seen him often so they have plenty of familiarity with his repertoire of pitches.  Now the Dbacks catch him when he is struggling.  Arizona starter Taylor Widener has been struggling too as he has a 6.33 ERA his last 6 starts.  In his only career start at Coors Field he was in on the mound for less than 2 innings.  This will be a tough test for him the way the Rockies have been swinging the bats.  This total is in the 11.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about at least a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet the Over

#967/968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET – These teams swung the bats quite well yesterday, particularly the Yankees, as there were 29 hits in the equivalent of 13 innings of baseball (Yankees did not bat in bottom of 7th of either game).  We look for the hot hitting to continue here as the Yankees send a struggling Andrew Heaney to the mound and the Red Sox Nick Pivetta is likely going to see this hot Yankees team prove to be tough to shut down.  New York has won 12 of 15 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs during this stretch.  The Red Sox are 3-1 to the over in last 4 games against a left-handed starter and the average total runs scored in those 4 games was 15 and that includes Game 1 of yesterday's double-header against southpaw Montgomery.  Overall Boston was plenty hot at the plate before struggling to score runs in yesterday's games and now they will enjoy big success against Heaney.  The Yankees southpaw has been a disaster in his 3 starts since coming over from the Angels.  Heaney has allowed 8 homers and 15 earned runs in 15 innings.  Boston has given Heaney some problems too the last two times they have faced them.  Pivetta is off back to back successful outings for the Red Sox. However, we can not ignore the fact that he was struggling just before this with 15 earned runs allowed on 24 hits in 20 innings of work.  This one gets well into double digits in runs scored in most of our computer math models run for this game.  This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet the Over

#951/952 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET – We successfully used the under in the match-up between these teams yesterday but that was heavily based on the pitching match-up. The fact is both these teams have been swinging pretty hot bats and today's pitchers will not stand in the way of the hot hitting. Before being held to 1 run in yesterday's loss, the Phillies had won 9 of 11 games and averaged 6.3 runs scored in the 9 wins. The Reds have won 8 of 12 games and the over was on an 8-2 run last 10 games prior to yesterday's under. Cincinnati has scored an average of 6.5 runs in their last dozen games. As for the pitchers today, the over is 6-2-1 in Matt Moore's starts this season and he is winless in those 9 starts. The Phillies left-hander has particularly struggled in home starts with a 9.30 ERA in five starts at Citizens Bank Park. The Reds start Luis Castillo and he is off an ugly road outing at Cleveland. Castillo had been hot before that start but he definitely has struggled more on the road than at home when he does get tripped up. Including the start against the Indians, Castillo is now 2-6 with a 5.40 ERA in his 12 road starts this season and the over is 8-3-1 in those. Castillo has allowed a pair of homers in each of his last two road starts. He also allowed a pair of homers the last time he pitched at Philly. Moore's last two starts have both been in Philly and he allowed a pair of homers in each of those. Don't be surprised if this game turns into a slugfest as, also the Phillies pen has been better of late but still is certainly no strength and the Reds pen is a major weakness. This one gets well into double digits in runs scored in most of our computer math models run for this game. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over

#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:05 PM ET – Zach Wheeler dominated the Mets in his most recent start and has only one tougher home start in his last five starts as a host.  In other 4 home starts Wheeler has allowed a total of just 4 earned runs.  Wheeler is 6-3 with a 2.02 ERA at home this season and last year he went 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA in his 7 starts at home as he has dominated in starts in Philadelphia since coming to the Phillies. More of the same is in the forecast here but indeed he will have to be extremely good for the Phillies to have a chance to win this game.  That's because Tyler Mahle is 6-1 with a 2.06 ERA on the road this season.  Also, adding to the value here is the fact this is the first time these pitchers are starting against these lineups since 2019.  We do not expect either lineup to have much success here as a result.  The Phillies have not played to an over in a full week.  As for the Reds they had been held to 3 or less runs in 3 of 4 games before yesterday's explosion at the plate and they are likely to struggle with Wheeler here.  He has been displaying electric stuff of late and pitching deep into games and that limits the bullpen impact in this game but, by the way, the Phillies pen has been much better recently.  You can not judge them based on their full season numbers and we also look for Mahle to dominate deep into this one as he has averaged 6 innings per road start over the last two months.  Look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Friday.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER

#969/970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers, Thursday at 4:10 PM ET – These teams have struggled at the plate recently and this continued in last night's slim 2-1 Mariners win.  For Seattle, that was just their 2nd win in 7 games and the Mariners have scored an average of 2.9 runs per game during this stretch.  For Texas, that was their 7th loss in their last 8 games and the Rangers have averaged scoring only 2.1 runs per game in those 8 games.  In the 7 losses, the Rangers never topped 3 runs. The Mariners have only topped 4 runs once in their last dozen games.  Mike Foltynewicz is off consecutive outings which both were solid and both stayed under.  This included one against the Mariners and, in fact, each of Foltynewicz last 3 starts against Seattle this season all went under the total.  Marco Gonzalez starts for the Mariners here and has a 1.47 ERA last 3 starts and all stayed under the total.  This included a solid start against the Rangers and the way both Texas and Seattle have struggled to score runs of late this one appears to be pegged for another under.  Look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of early morning Thursday.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER

#921/922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9.5 Runs – Cleveland Indians vs Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET – This line opened at a 9 and moved to a 9.5 in early market activity and this was likely due to favorable winds expected for this one this evening. While the winds will be blowing out at a decent clip for this one, batters still not only have to put the ball in play but also make solid contact to take advantage of that and this is likely to be an issue this evening. Both these starting pitchers have been in excellent form and are also tallying up plenty of strikeouts. The A's Frankie Montas has a 2.84 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 19 innings over his last 3 starts. The under has cashed in all three of his last three starts against the Indians and Montas has a 2.66 ERA in his 4 career starts against Cleveland. The Indians have Cal Quantrill on the mound here and he opposed Montas in a 3-2 Cleveland win right after the All Star break. He has been red hot since then too with a 0.47 ERA in his last 3 starts and he has struck out 21 in 19 innings over his last 3 starts. Quantrill takes on an A's team that has been held to 4 or less runs in 4 of last 5 road games including last night's extra-inning Oakland win. The Indians face Montas who has been particularly dominant on the road of late with a total of only 6 earned runs allowed in his last 4 away starts. Also, Montas has struck out double digits in each of his last 3 starts in enemy ballparks! Last but certainly not least, these are two of the best bullpens in the American League. Look for this one to be a tight game throughout with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 7 to 8 runs and even if it reaches 9 that is still a winning ticket based on the 9.5 that is posted at most books as of early morning Wednesday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER

#973/974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET – Earlier this season the White Sox were pounding lefty starters.  Now they have cooled off against southpaws but are crushing the ball in games against right-handed starters and that continued in yesterday's big 11-1 win. Chicago has won 7 of last 8 against right-handed starters and scored an average of 7 runs per game in those contests.  Now they face Griffin Jax and this will be the first time this season that the rookie right-hander has made a second start against a team.  It also is his first ever home start at the MLB level.  Jax has a 7.27 ERA in his 3 long-relief home appearances out of the bullpen this season so this may not go well for him for multiple reasons including the pressure of opening up a game on the mound at Target Field for the first time ever.  The White Sox could jump on him early as they stay hot at the plate.  They are likely to need the runs here as the Twins should enjoy success against Sox lefty Dallas Keuchel.  The Twins have seen only 3 of their last dozen games result in an under.  A trio of starters were rested for yesterday's match-up with Lucas Giolito and, predictably, Minnesota faltered at the plate.  Those guys should be back tonight and facing a fading Keuchel.  He is off a solid home start but it was against a bad Royals team who had just hammered him recently for 3 homers when the teams met in KC.  That was followed by a start hosting the Indians in which Keuchel also allowed 3 homers.  He has an ERA north of 5.00 since the All Star break and has a history of being much more hittable on the road and that trend has resumed this season.  The White Sox bullpen has been respectable this season but likely will be expected to do too much here if Keuchel struggles as expected.  The Twins bullpen has been one of the weaker ones in MLB this season.  This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet the Over

#975/976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Kansas City Royals @ St Louis Cardinals, Sunday at 2:15 PM ET – The Royals have been trending under for many weeks now.  However, if there was a perfect spot for Kansas City to snap that trending in a strong way this might very well be it.  The Cardinals are sending Jon Lester to the mound.  The veteran lefty has made only one start since coming to the Cards from the Nats but it looked very much like his recent starts with the Nationals.  The fact is that Lester is in a major slump right now and can't seem to break his rough patch of poor form.  The odds are heavily stacked against a strong start from Lester here as he has been roughed up in 6 of his last 7 outings.  The one start was impressive but the other 6 had a cumulative line of 26 earned runs charged to Lester in 23 and a third innings.  He is not just getting hit a little, Lester has been getting rocked.  The Royals start Kris Bubic here.  The Kansas City left-hander has just one win in five road starts this season and all but one of them went over the total.  Bubic has a 7.30 ERA in those 5 road starts and another rough one is likely here.  St Louis will take advantage of Bubic pitching to hard contact as the lefty has given up 13 homers in those 5 road starts.  Being homer prone has also been an issue for Lester as he has given up a pair of homers in each of his last two starts.  The Cardinals have averaged scoring 6 runs a game in their last 6 victories and are a big favorite here for a reason.  Look for St Louis to get to at least that number today but the Royals are going to give Lester issues as well and that is why this one gets into double digits in runs scored in most of our computer math models run for this game.  This total is in the 9.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet the Over

#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET – It might seem hard to believe given their poor overall record on the season but the Orioles have the highest slugging percentage in the majors against left-handed pitching this season. Here the Orioles will be getting a second shot at southpaw Shane McClanahan after just facing him a couple weeks ago. McClanahan is having a solid rookie campaign but now faces a Baltimore team that pounded out fifteen hits in yesterday's loss. The teams combined for 29 hits in that one as the Rays bats were also hot. The strong hitting should continue today as Baltimore tends to hit well at home and McClanahan has a 1.50 WHIP in his last two starts and those were at home. He is 0-3 in his 7 road starts this season and though he has pitched decent in those, the Orioles lineup getting another quick look at him, and this time at home, will benefit them. The same holds true for the TB lineup and getting another shot at Spenser Watkins. The Baltimore rookie just faced the Rays a couple weeks ago and he had a solid start there but now Tampa Bay gets another look and this tends to go rough on rookie pitchers in the rematch. Also, Watkins enters this one in a bit of tougher form as he has allowed four earned runs in each of his last two starts and that was even with those totaling less than ten innings on the hill. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Watkins' home starts this season and we look for that trend to continue in a big way here. Rays have averaged 6.4 runs per game last 8 games - a 6-2 stretch for Tampa Bay. Orioles have averaged 5.4 runs last 5 home games but their problem is on the mound. Baltimore has now allowed double digits in runs in 3 straight games overall. Also, the Orioles have allowed 7 or more runs in 3 straight home games. Of course all 3 went over the total and this one lines up well to keep that trend going. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over

#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Cleveland Indians @ Toronto Blue Jays, Thursday at 7:07 PM ET – Cleveland's rally fell short last night yet it was still a big game at the plate for them as they ended up with 6 runs on 15 hits in the game. The Indians have an O/U mark in their games of 5-2 last 7. The Blue Jays have scored an average of 6.4 runs per game which has helped lead the way to a 6-1 record over their past 7 games. This looks like an ideal spot for the bats to keep it going at the plate. Cleveland's Triston McKenzie is winless with an 8.36 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Indians are 2-6 in McKenzie's road starts this season as the right-hander has not helped matters with a 6.75 ERA in these outings. The Blue Jays counter with Ross Stripling here and he has struggled since the All Star Break with a 7.60 ERA in his three starts. The Indians did see Stripling earlier this season so that is an edge for the hitters too as they are likely to fare better in the 2nd go round with the way his current form has been. This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over

#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Atlanta Braves @ St Louis Cardinals, Wednesday at 8:15 PM ET – Yesterday the Braves jumped on Jon Lester for 6 runs in the first two innings and then incredibly not another run was scored in the game until the bottom of the 9th. Though the game stayed under as a result, look for tonight's to make up for it as both starting pitchers are likely to get tagged. JA Happ gets his first start for the Cardinals and it is unlikely the change of scenery to St Louis will be a miracle cure for the lefty. Happ just has not had it this season. He has a 6.77 ERA on the season and an 11.25 ERA his last 3 starts overall. The over is 13-6 in his 19 starts this season. Happ has a WHIP over 2.00 in his last 3 starts. The Braves also have a struggling hurler getting the call in this one. Drew Smyly only gave up 3 earned runs but 9 hits in just four innings in his most recent start. The over is 9-2 in his 11 road starts this season. Atlanta has scored 5 or more runs in 4 of last 5 games. The Cardinals had averaged 5 runs last 6 games before being shut down last night. The bats should wake up tonight. This total is in the 9 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over

#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays, Monday at 7:10 PM ET – The Rays Michael Wacha got hammered by the Mariners earlier this season. Wacha is off a good start versus the Yankees but he entered that outing having served up 8 homers over his last 4 appearances. Now he faces a Seattle team that hit him hard in June and, though off a low-scoring loss yesterday, had been rolling. Before the 4-3 loss yesterday, the Mariners had won 5 of 8 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game. The Rays bats also had been hot before a lackluster showing in yesterday's 3-2 win over the Red Sox. TB has won 9 of 12 games and scored an average of 6.3 runs in these dozen games. Tampa Bay will take advantage of facing a pitcher who is finally regressing to the mean. Chris Flexen has good numbers this season for the Mariners but he was getting better results than he deserved overall based on metrics. The over is 7-0 in his road starts this season and he is off back to back losses in which his strikeouts continue too low and he was hit hard and allowed 9 earned runs in 9 and 1 / 3 innings! The over is 3-0 the last 3 games between these teams when meeting in Tampa Bay. This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about ten runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over

#967/968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET – Yesterday's game continued a trend of high-scoring games between these clubs as it was over the total by the 5th inning. The over is 6-1 in the 7 games between these teams this season. Not only that, going further back it is a 24-11-1 run to the over in the last 36 games. These rivals meet and the scoreboard lights up and we expect more of the same today. The Rays Ryan Yarbrough has a 5.31 ERA at home this season and the over is 10-5 in his 15 starts this year. In his last 3 starts against the Red Sox - all within the past 12 months - Yarbrough has allowed 15 earned runs in 14 and 1 / 3 innings. Boston's Nathan Eovaldi has allowed 5 earned runs in 8 innings in his last two starts at Tampa Bay. Eovaldi's last road start was a good one against a depleted Yankees lineup two weeks ago. However, prior to this, Eovaldi had allowed 8 earned runs in 9 and 2 / 3 innings over two most recent road starts. Tampa Bay is 7-3 last 10 games and has averaged 6.4 runs per game in this stretch. The Rays lineup stays hot here. The Red Sox scored only 3 runs in defeat yesterday but entered the game on a 7-2 run with an average of 6.4 runs scored by Boston in the 7 wins. This total is in the 8 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about ten runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over

#921/922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians, Friday at 8:10 PM ET – In theory, the White Sox should be able to hit Jean Carlos Mejia but Chicago just has not been hitting at all lately plus Mejia has a solid K:BB ratio and this is his first ever start against the Sox. In other words, advantage goes to the pitcher and this is particularly true when you consider that the White Sox have lost 6 of 8 games and scored an average of only 2.1 runs in those 8 games! As for the Indians bats, the likelihood here is plenty of struggles as Chicago's Lance Lynn continues to dominate. The veteran simply has phenomenal numbers and has been so consistent. Lynn has allowed only 1 earned run in each of his last 3 starts. Also, he is 10-3 with a 1.91 ERA this season. The White Sox, in Lynn's home starts, have had only one over in 11 games! 8 unders, 2 pushes, 1 over in the 11 home starts for Lynn! Each of Mejia's last 2 starts have been games for Cleveland that remained under the total. Mejia's high ERA is hiding the fact that he has recently been burned by some mistake pitches but pitching better than the overall numbers show. Again, he has a great strikeout to walk ratio and, right now, this struggling White Sox lineup does not seem to know how to even handle "mistake pitches". Look for this one to be a tight game with runs at a premium. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of early morning Friday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER

#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 3:45 PM ET – The Dodgers Price has some good recent stats but he faced a Rockies team that ranks in the lower half of the majors for slugging percentage this season and that is despite playing their home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field. The Giants Cueto, in his last two starts, also has faced weaker lineups - Cardinals and Pirates - that rank 10th and 15th in NL (out of 15 teams!) in slugging percentage. Now this match-up for these hurlers involves the #1 NL ranked slugging percentage team in the Giants and the #3 ranked team in the Dodgers. Cueto struggled last season against the Dodgers and Price will be facing a tall task here with facing a solid Giants lineup off an 8-0 loss yesterday. The Dodgers lineup really came to life yesterday and showed, even with Mookie Betts out, this team is still very dangerous at the plate. The Giants had won 5 of 8 games and scored an average of 5 runs per game in the 5 victories before yesterday's shutout loss to a dominating Walker Buehler. Though Price has been solid, this will be his toughest test since coming back into the rotation and he is still trying to get stretched out in terms of working deeper into games. This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about ten runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over

#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins, Monday at 8:10 PM ET – Both teams are off low-scoring results yesterday as the Twins lost 6-2 and the Tigers lost 6-1. Detroit entered that game averaging 6.5 runs as the Tigers had scored 52 runs in 8 games before yesterday's loss. Minnesota is 4-0 in home games against the Tigers this season and has scored an average of 7.5 runs in those 4 games. Even including a decent start for Matt Manning in his last road outing (coincidentally it was at Minnesota), the right-hander is 0-3 in road starts this season with an 8.56 ERA. Michael Pineda starts for the Twins here. The right-hander has respectable season numbers but he has allowed 8 earned runs on 18 hits in 9 and 1 / 3 innings in his last two home starts. Detroit had been scoring very well prior to yesterday and the bats should get rolling again here based on Pineda's recent home struggles. The Twins bats will resume their home success against the Tigers in their 2nd shot at him as they just faced him on July 9th. Manning had more success than anticipated in that one and his road struggles resume here as Minnesota takes advantage of a 2nd shot at him. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over

#979/980 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago White Sox, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET – Brandon Woodruff has seen the O/U go 6-12 in his starts this season. Lance Lynn has seen the O/U go 5-10 in his starts this season. Woodruff has a 2.04 ERA and 0.83 WHIP on the year. The White Sox do not hit righties as well as lefties and also Woodruff has only made one start against them in his career so that is an edge for the pitcher as well. Lynn has a 1.94 ERA this season and enters this start in fine current form with a 1.42 ERA his last 3 starts. His last start against Milwaukee was 4 years ago so the Brewers certainly lack experience against him, so just like Woodruff, the edge goes to the pitcher over the hitters. Some recent over trending for each of these clubs helped move the total from a 7 to a 7.5 but that move helped give some more value to this play and the Brewers entered this series having scored only 1.8 runs over 5 most recent home games. Milwaukee has scored better in this series but has only averaged 7 hits per game in the first two games! Chicago has scored only 4 runs in its last 3 games! Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket based on the 7.5 that is posted at most books as of early morning Sunday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER

#975/976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles, Friday at 7:05 PM ET – Washington has had only 1 under in the 7 games they have played since the All Star break.  The Orioles have trended over with 10 of 12 games over the total the past two weeks.  Besides the team trends here, this pitching match-up also looks great for a high-scoring game.  Pat Corbin starts for the Nationals and he has a 7.31 ERA his last 3 starts and has been consistently rocked with 25 hits in 16 innings during this stretch.  Corbin also walked 4 in his most recent start.  The Nationals lefty has allowed 9 earned runs on 19 hits in less than 11 innings of work in his last two starts against the Orioles and that includes one this season.  The Washington lineup also has already seen Baltimore's Jorge Lopez this season.  The Orioles right-hander allowed 7 hits in just 5 innings in that start and, like Corbin, he also enters this start in poor current form.  Lopez has a 6.75 ERA last 3 starts and has given up 22 hits in 13 and 1 / 3 innings!  Washington has averaged 7.5 runs last 6 games.  Baltimore has averaged 5.2 runs last 5 games.  As for the bullpens this season the Nationals ERA ranks 19th and the Orioles ERA ranks 26th in the league.  This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of at least a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet Over

#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET – The most recent game between these teams went over the total and then they each had separate 2-game sets in which both games went over the total and now these bitter rivals meet again. Yankees confidence is growing with 4 straight wins plus New York has averaged scoring 7 runs per game in the last 3 victories. The Red Sox love hitting at home and enter this game swinging hot bats with 20 runs scored in their 2-game set with the Blue Jays. Boston will hit Jordan Montgomery better than they did in the Bronx. Montgomery held them to 3 earned runs in that one but now is on the road where he has a 5.32 ERA this season. Last season he was winless in his 4 road starts with a 7.27 ERA so this is nothing new for Montgomery. He has proven to struggle away from the Bronx. Fenway Park is not an easy place to pitch and Red Sox righty Tanner Houck has struggled in his limited action here thus far. Houck has allowed 14 hits in his 10 and 1 / 3 innings and certainly could be carrying much higher than the 4.35 ERA he has at Fenway Park this season. With the Yankees bats hot, this will be a tough start for Houck. The Red Sox bats will give Montgomery trouble too as he has a 5.91 ERA in his last 2 starts at Fenway Park. Boston averaged 6 runs a game in winning the first 7 meetings between these teams this season. Now the Yankees have taken 2 straight between the teams and are a confident group right now but Boston is tough at home and will resume the hot hitting that helped lead the way to a 7-0 run in games between these teams to start the season series. This total is in the 9.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over

#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – San Francisco Giants @ St Louis Cardinals, Sunday at 2:15 PM ET – Yesterday's game finished a 3-1 Cardinals win but 7 of 11 meetings heading into yesterday were games that went over the total.  The pitching match-up today should get the bats going again in this one.  Johnny Cueto has had a lackluster season overall and the veteran right-hander has particularly had it rough on the road this season for the Giants.  Cueto has a 5.64 ERA in road starts and only 2 of the 6 outings resulted in an under.  He faced the Cardinals right before the break and they got to him for 4 earned runs on 9 hits in 6 innings on the mound.  Seeing the Cardinals again and this time at St Louis will likely mean even more struggles for Cueto.  The St Louis starter in this one is Wade LeBlanc.  He struggled badly in his final start before the break and now has 6 walks and just 4 strikeouts over his last 2 outings.  LeBlanc had a horrible April with the Orioles.  Then, after coming to the Cardinals, the southpaw showed some early success but reality is quickly setting in and we will not hesitate to fade him here before the markets make an adjustment on him.  San Francisco, before yesterday's loss, had won 5 straight games and scored an average of 6 runs per game.  St Louis, prior to yesterday, had scored 5 or more runs in 4 of 6 games!  The bats come back to life this afternoon for both clubs and plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of the above factors.  This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet Over

#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET – Brandon Woodruff will be making his 10th road start of the season for the Brewers.  Of the first 9 there was one push on the total, zero overs, and 8 unders!  Woodruff has a 1.99 ERA and unreal 0.68 WHIP in his road starts this year. This game sets up to be another low-scoring duel with Luis Castillo of the Reds.  The Cincinnati right-hander had some rough patches earlier this season but since then he has been lights out.  Castillo had a 1.71 ERA in June and held opponents to a .173 batting average.  So far in July he has a 2.41 ERA and has held opponents to a .169 batting average.  After a very rough May, Castillo has been the strong pitcher we are used to seeing on the mound.  Yesterday's high-scoring game and Castillo's ugly full season numbers are part of the reason this total moved to an 8 after opening at 7.5 runs.  We are going to take advantage of the added value as these teams had gone under in 6 straight prior to yesterday's rare slugfest between the clubs.  Both teams had been trending under all month long before yesterday's unusual result and now look for a strong start from these two hurlers and while the Reds do not have a strong bullpen like the Brewers do, Castillo is fully capable of going 7 innings here.  That minimizes the Cincy bullpen usage.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8 that is posted at most books as of late morning Saturday.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER 

#915/916 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10.5 Runs – Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET – The White Sox bats have been red hot in this series but the Orioles bats should fare much better against Dylan Cease then they have against the other starters so far in this series. The White Sox right-hander had a solid start against the Orioles in late May. However, Cease is coming off a rough outing at Minnesota and has a 6.59 ERA in road starts this season. Cease has allowed 5 or more earned runs in 4 of his last 6 road starts. The over is 6-2 in his road starts this season. The White Sox bats should most definitely have another big day today. Chicago will be facing the Orioles Spenser Watkins. The Baltimore right-hander had a successful MLB debut versus the Blue Jays in his last start. However, he had more walks than strikeouts and also had only 8 swings and misses in the game. In other words, Watkins pitched to contact and was quite fortunate in that first start. In 2018, Watkins had a 5.11 ERA in his 5 starts above the single A level of the minors. Since then, at the AAA level, Watkins has a 6.67 ERA and in his last full season at the AAA level (2019), Watkins had a .326 BAA so he has a tendency to be very hittable! The ball is being put in play against Watkins and this White Sox lineup pounded the Orioles for 20 runs in the first two games of this series! O/U was 8-0 run in White Sox games before back to back unders preceded back to back overs in this series. The bats come alive again this afternoon and the Orioles get in on it with the big hits this time too. Plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of the above factors. This total is in the 10.5 range (after opening up at an 11 and we will gladly take the added value) and our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over

#971/972 ASA PLAY ON Over 10 Runs – Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET – We successfully cashed the over in this match-up yesterday and are coming right back with it again today. The difference today is we expect both teams to get in on the big action at the plate. Baltimore, off a 12-1 loss yesterday, should fare much better against Lucas Giolito. The White Sox right-hander had a solid start against the Orioles in late May. However, Giolito is coming off a rough outing at Detroit and has a 5.18 ERA in road starts this season. The last time he started in Baltimore Giolito allowed 6 runs - 4 earned - in 6 innings. The over is 6-2 in his road starts this season. The White Sox bats should most definitely have another big day today. Chicago will be facing the Orioles Tom Eshelman. The Baltimore right-hander has a 9.25 ERA in his last 3 starts and the over is a perfect 3-0 in those outings. Eshelman continues to get hit hard and has trouble missing bats! He has struck out only 2 batters in nearly a dozen innings on the hill over his last three starts. The ball is being put in play against Eshelman and this White Sox lineup pounded the Orioles for 12 runs yesterday! O/U was 8-0 run in White Sox games before back to back unders preceded yesterday's blowout over. The bats come alive again tonight and the Orioles get in on it with the big hits this time too. Plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of the above factors. This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over

#921/922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9.5 Runs – Oakland A's @ Texas Rangers, Friday at 8:10 PM ET – Jordan Lyles starts for the Rangers and has turned things around in a big way. He has allowed 3 earned runs in 13 innings in winning each of his last two starts. Lyles is also 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his 3 career starts against the A's. Oakland's bats have produced an average of only 3 runs in the last 8 games. The Rangers bats have been held to 3 or less runs in 3 of the last 4 games. Texas will be dealing with a pitcher who is on a tear as they must face Cole Irvin here. The left-hander has allowed just 2 runs in 15 innings over his last two starts and, overall, has led Oakland to wins in each of his last 3 starts! Only 19 of 52 night games for Oakland have been overs this season. Also 11 of 17 Irvin starts this season have been unders and that includes 5 of his 7 road starts. Athletics bullpen has been better on the road than at home and the Rangers bullpen has been better at home than on the road. Both pens have been respectable, if unspectacular, on the season. Also, over the last 15 days the bullpen ERA of these two teams ranks them each in the top 7 in the majors. That being said, the trending is certainly going the right way for both teams. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 9 that is posted at most books as of late morning Friday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER

#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET – The Reds have been winning but certainly have not been a powerhouse at the plate recently. Cincinnati has seen the under cash in 11 of 14 games! Despite an overall winning run, Cincinnati had only 1 big game at the plate in those 14 games. Other than that, the Reds scored an average of 3.8 runs per game in the other 13 games. Cincinnati's pitching has been great with only 3.4 runs allowed per game in the last 14 games. This looks like a pitchers duel type of match-up. Adrian Houser did have a couple rough starts recently but he bounced back with a big effort in his last start. Overall, in his last 7 appearances of 5 or more innings he had the two rough starts but allowed a total of only 5 runs in the other 5 games! That included Houser dominating the Reds the last time he faced them. As for Milwaukee's bats, look for them to struggle against Tyler Mahle. The Reds right-hander last faced them on June 16th at Milwaukee and fanned 12 in 6 innings while allowing only 1 run on 3 hits! The Brewers have averaged 2.5 runs during the current 4 game stretch which has seen 3 unders and just 1 over. Mahle is 5-1 with a 1.84 ERA in 10 road starts this season. He is undefeated with a 2.28 ERA and a .199 BAA in his 8 night starts this season. The last two meetings between these teams at Milwaukee were 2-1 games and this looks like another tight one. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Thursday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER

#921/922 ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels, 4:07 PM ET - The Angels have been without Mike Trout for some time now and also lost Justin Upton to injury June 23rd. Though Anthony Rendon recently got hurt, the Angels continue scoring runs and got 5 runs on 11 hits in last night's victory.  Upton could be back today but, even if he is not, Los Angeles has averaged 6 runs per game and gone 7-2 last 9 games without him since June 23rd.  In terms of slugging percentage, each of these teams rank in the top 8 out of all 30 MLB teams against left-handed pitching this season.  Also, the Angels are one of the top slugging teams this season in home games and the Red Sox are one of the top slugging teams in the majors in road games thus far this season.  Boston will certainly be happy to face anyone other than Shohei Ohtani who gave them trouble last night.  Now the Red Sox take advantage of facing Andrew Heaney.  The Angels lefty is 0-3 with a 9.64 ERA in his last 3 starts.  On the season Los Angeles is 12-2 to the over in his starts including 6-1 when Heaney is at home.  The southpaw has a 6.16 ERA in his career against Boston.  The Red Sox start Eduardo Rodriguez in this one and he has a 10.56 ERA in the two career starts he has made at Anaheim.  Though he is off a strong start at Oakland, Rodriguez has a 5.56 ERA in his road starts this season and the under in his outing against the A's was just the 3rd in his 11 road starts this season.  You can see why the Angels bats should stay hot here.  As for the Red Sox bats, Ohtani (known for dominating at home) got the better of them yesterday, but Boston's hot hitting should resume here. The Red Sox had won 10 of 11 before yesterday's loss and have scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch!  That being said, plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these factors.  This total is in the 9 to 9.5 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet Over

#979/980 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds @ Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET – The under is perfect in the last 4 starts Luis Castillo has made.  The Reds right-hander may not have his usual full-season numbers you would expect but he is certainly back in top form.  Castillo has a 1.71 ERA in his last 4 starts and should dominate this struggling Royals team.  Kansas City has lost 11 of 13 games and scored an average of 2.6 runs in the 11 losses.  The Reds also have not been a powerhouse at the plate recently.  Cincinnati has seen the under cash in 10 of 12 games!  Despite an overall winning run, Cincinnati had only 1 big game at the plate in those dozen games.  Other than that, the Reds scored an average of 3.5 runs per game in the other 11 games.  Cincinnati's pitching has been great with only 3.2 runs allowed per game last dozen games.  But this Cincinnati team has struggled to hit lefties this season and rank near the bottom of the majors in categories in terms of hitting southpaws.  That is why we expect Kris Bubic to enjoy success.  He has endured a very rough stretch on the road but has been a completely different pitcher at home where the Royals have gone 3-0 in his starts, he has allowed only 1 homer, and he has compiled a 2.94 ERA.  Look for the 5th under in the last 6 meetings between these teams with a low-scoring battle this evening at Kauffman Stadium.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 7 to 8 runs and even if it reaches 9 that is still a winning ticket based on the 9.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Tuesday.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER

#913/914 ASA top play on 10* OVER 10 Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, 7:10 PM ET - Just like the weather in Minnesota, the bats will be hot on Monday! The O/U is 7-0 last 7 White Sox games and Chicago averaging 7.4 runs a game during this hot streak at the plate. The Twins off consecutive unders but the games did combine for 17 runs and the O/U was on 8-1 run in Minnesota's 9 games before these two most recent games barely stayed under the total. The O/U is 5-2-1 in Dylan Cease's 8 road starts this season. The White Sox hurler has a 6.08 ERA away from home on the year. The Twins O/U is 3-0 in Bailey Ober's last 3 starts and he has a 5.84 ERA in his 6 starts this season. The White Sox bats have been hot as we mentioned above and the Twins have scored 7 or more runs in 4 of last 5 home games. Plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these key factors. This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and, at a minimum having a very strong shot of getting to at least 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over

#975/976 ASA top play on 10* OVER 10 Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels, 4:07 PM ET - The Orioles are facing a lefty today as Patrick Sandoval gets the start for the Angels. Baltimore is 2nd in the majors in both batting average (.276) and slugging percentage (.444) against southpaws this season! Those are very impressive numbers as only the Houston Astros rank better!  Baltimore starts Tom Eshelman here.  The Orioles right-hander has a 5.42 ERA in his career and a 6.57 ERA this season.  In 83 MLB innings his BAA is .292 so opponents certainly have found him to be quite hittable.  The Angels are averaging 6.5 runs per game last 6 games and have won 5 of 6 so they are "in the zone" right now.  Prior to yesterday's under, the over was on a 5-1 run in Angels games.  The Orioles have not had back to back games stay under the total since mid-June!  That is a span of 3 full weeks and that trend looks likely to continue here after yesterday was a rare under.  Plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these key factors.  This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and, at a minimum having a very strong shot of getting to at least 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet Over

#911/912 ASA top play on 10* OVER 12 St Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies, 9:10 PM ET - Contrarian play here.  This truly looks like a big number here because, even at Coors Field, recent games have been falling short of this number. However, this one has a different look to it and should result in plenty of runs scored as we have two pitchers likely to struggle here.  Wade LeBlanc is with his 3rd team in 3 years and the southpaw has a 6.02 ERA in these 3 seasons including his limited action this year.  He has an 8.68 ERA in his last 2 starts at Coors Field.  This is unlikely to go well for him as the Rockies had won 4 straight games prior to yesterday's result and Colorado should pound LeBlanc as they bounce back from letting yesterday's game slip away and then getting blitzed in the top half of the 10th frame.  Kyle Freeland starts for Colorado and he has a 6.54 ERA this season.  In his 17 home starts from 2019 and 2020 he compiled a 7.11 ERA at Coors Field and has now struggled overall again this season.  In two career starts against the Cardinals he has a 1.94 WHIP as he has been hit hard by St Louis.  Also, Colorado's bullpen ranks dead last in the majors and the Cardinals bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack at 15th.  That being said, plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these key factors.  This total is in the 12 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and, at a minimum having a very strong shot of getting to at least 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet Over

#923/924 ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 Texas Rangers @ Oakland A's, 3:37 PM ET - This play is all about the value. Yesterday's match-up featured two starting pitchers in great current form and yet the total was also 8 just like this one. It stayed under the total easily but now today you have Dane Dunning getting the start for the Rangers. He is 0-4 in his 7 road starts this season with a 7.45 ERA. In 13 innings over his last 3 starts (2 of which were at home where he is normally better) Dunning has allowed 22 hits plus walked 6. Dunning is lucky his ERA has not been even higher than the 6.23 ERA he has over those last 3 starts. His current form is very poor and now he faces an Oakland team that has scored an average of 6 runs per game in winning 3 of last 4 against the Rangers. Texas also should enjoy some success at the plate in this one. Prior to being held to just 1 run in yesterday's game the Rangers had scored an average of 6 runs per game in winning 6 of 8 games. So the Texas bats have been better recently and though Oakland's Sean Manaea has some solid numbers again this season, he has given up 18 hits in his last 14 innings over his last 3 starts against the Rangers. Also, in his most recent home start this season, Manaea allowed 9 hits in less than 6 innings. Texas has a .433 slugging percentage against lefties the last 15 days and .447 slugging percentage versus southpaws the last 7 days. Both are very solid figures and the Rangers may surprise some with success against Manaea here while Dunning and a sub-par Texas bullpen should get pounded here. That being said, plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these key factors. This total is in the 8 range but our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and, at a minimum having a very strong shot of getting to at least 4 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 9 runs (5-4 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over

#965/966 ASA top play on 10* OVER 10.5 Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays, 7:07 PM ET - The Blue Jays are starting Steven Matz and he is returning from the covid-19 list and has been out for more than 2 weeks so he will be on a pitch count here. Even though the Blue Jays bullpen has been solid this season they could be asked to do a little too much here given the above and the Mariners have been hitting well recently with a slugging percentage ranking in the top ten in the majors over the past week. Seattle had won 7 of 9 games and averaged 5 runs per game during that stretch before last night's 9-3 loss. The Mariners lineup should take advantage of Matz here as the Blue Jays are 1-4 in his home starts this season and his 5.76 ERA at home could easily be even higher as he has a 1.92 WHIP in home starts this season. He will not be the only pitcher struggling tonight. The Mariners hand the ball to Justus Sheffield and he is 0-3 with an 8.78 ERA in his last 3 starts. Sheffield also struggled in his only career start against the Blue Jays. He has a 6.10 ERA in his 6 road starts this season. The southpaw is facing a Blue Jays team that has a .477 slugging percentage in the last 30 days and that is good for 3rd in the majors! Toronto is 8-1 last 9 games and has scored an average of 7 runs per game during this hot stretch. That being said, plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these key factors. This total is in the 10.5 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to at least 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over

#923/924 ASA top play on 10* OVER 10 or 10.5 New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox, 7:05 PM ET - Boston's Martin Perez finally had a decent start but it was against a struggling Royals team and Perez was not even efficient in that start as he threw way too many pitches for balls.  Prior to that outing, Perez gave up 11 earned runs in 3 and 1 / 3 innings combined and those two starts were each at home just like this one is.  Also, Perez has a 7.92 ERA in his 7 career starts against the Yankees.  New York comes into this one swinging hot sticks and will give Perez a lot of trouble.  The Yankees have won 7 of 9 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in those 7 victories.  Boston should answer the Yankees run for run in this one and they are known for being a stronger hitting team when at home.  They will face Domingo German.  The Yankees right-hander had some success against them earlier this month but that was at Yankee Stadium and the last time he pitched at Fenway Park he allowed 5 earned runs in 4 and 1 / 3 innings.  Also, German enters this start in rough current form with 11 earned runs allowed on 17 hits in 8 and 1 / 3 innings over his last two starts.  With both pitchers enduring some recent struggles this one sets up well for plenty of early runs.  The Red Sox have won all 3 meetings between these clubs this season and scored an average of 6 runs per game.  Both teams had some success against the bullpen arms they faced as well in the earlier meetings and now with the Yankees seeking revenge for the 3-game sweep suffered in the Bronx earlier this month, they will be very focused at the plate and likely to pound Perez.  At the same time, German simply can not be trusted based on current form and this is particularly true at Fenway.  The last two of the games in the 3 game set went over the total and the over is also 9-4 in the last 13 games between these teams at Fenway Park.  That being said, plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these factors.  This total is in the 10 to 10.5 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet Over

#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 10.5 Runs – Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays, Thursday at 7:07 PM ET – These two pitchers have big ERA numbers on the season but that hides how well their more recent outings have been and we have a big number to work with here.  Anthony Kay's two most recent home starts have seen him allow a total of just 2 earned runs on 5 hits in 8 innings of work!  He'll take advantage of facing an Orioles team that got shut out the plate yesterday and that was at home.  Now this Baltimore club has taken to the road where they have been held to 3 or less runs in 9 of last 12 games!  So the Orioles traveled to Buffalo for this game after playing in Baltimore last night and the Blue Jays were in an even tougher travel situation as they came all the way from down south in Miami where they played last night.  Certainly there could be some "sleepy bats" at the plate for this one and Toronto will face an improving Dean Kremer in this one.  Like Kay, he has a high ERA on the season but has shown improvement in recent outings.  Kremer, in fact, had a stint at AAA Norfolk that has seemed to turn him around.  He gave up only 3 hits in 8 and 2 / 3 innings in 2 outings there earlier this month.  Now, after returning to the Orioles, Kremer has given up only 7 hits in 11 and 1 / 3 innings and that includes a solid start versus the Blue Jays in his most recent outing.  Toronto has lost 5 of the last 6 home games and averaged scoring only 3 runs per game in the 5 defeats.  That said, all signs point to an under here.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 8 to 9 runs and even if it reaches 10 that is still a winning ticket based on the 10.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Thursday.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER

#915/916 ASA top play on 10* OVER 9.5 Oakland A's @ Texas Rangers, 8:05 PM ET - The Athletics have won 8 of 11 games and have scored 6.6 runs per game in the last 10 games of that stretch with 8 of those 10 going over the total.  The Rangers are on a 7-2-1 O/U run with an average of 5 runs scored per game in the last 9 of those games.  The pitching match-up is also positive for the over here as Texas has a struggling Mike Foltneywicz slated to get the start.  The Rangers right-hander is 1-7 with a 5.59 ERA and things are going from bad to worse as Foltneywicz has a 6.88 ERA over his last 7 starts.  Oakland starter James Kaprielian has produced solid numbers overall but has a 4.32 ERA in his road starts this year.  If he is going to get touched up it is likely to be on the road and Kaprielian has a 5.65 ERA in his last 3 starts and gave up 2 homers in his most recent road start.  The O/U is 21-10 in the last 31 meetings between these teams so there is a history of overs between these divisional foes in recent seasons.  The money line on Oakland is moving lower this morning and this is indicating possible sharp money on Texas as who else would be betting a Rangers team that has lost 7 of 8 games?  The point is that for Texas to have a shot to win this one they will have to score plenty based on how Foltneywicz has so consistently struggled.  That being said, plenty of runs likely in this one given all of these variables.  This total is in the 9.5 range but our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet Over

#915/916 ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Cincinnati Reds @ Minnesota Twins, 8:10 PM ET - The Twins JA Happ is having a very rough season and showing no signs of turning it around.  At the same time, his teammates should enjoy plenty of success at the plate at home in this one.  Minnesota recently welcomed back Byron Buxton to the lineup.  Even though Josh Donaldson left yesterday's game, his replacement - Luis Arraez - pounded out 3 hits and is currently on a 7 for 20 run at the plate.  Not a power hitter but, as you can see, Arraez is getting the job done of late with his base knocks nonetheless.  Nelson Cruz left yesterday's game but, like Donaldson, could be back for this one.  His replacement was power hitter Miguel Sano and this Twins lineup managed 14 hits in yesterday's game and that was on the road.  Though the Reds Tyler Mahle has good numbers of late, he will have his hands full with a Twins lineup known for being particularly tough at home.  Minnesota will need all the runs they can get because Happ continues to get lit up with a 9.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and 6 homers allowed over 14 innings.  Happ has been hit at a .329 clip in night games this year and has an 8.02 ERA under the lights this season.  The over is 7-3-1 in Reds games against left-handed starters this year.  Last but not least, these are two of the weaker bullpens in MLB and the Twins have a 4.82 ERA and the Reds have a 5.66 ERA which ranks dead last in MLB.  This total is in the 9 range but our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet Over

#977/978 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET – Marco Gonzales struggled with a tough Twins lineup in his most recent start.  However, in his 2 prior home starts he allowed only 2 earned runs on just 4 hits in 11 innings while striking out 12 batters!  The Rays lineup does not have much experience against him which is a big edge here.  Speaking of a lack of hitters' experience, the Mariners have never faced the Rays Shane McClanahan.  The rookie southpaw has flashed great stuff this season and pitched much better than his linescore would indicate in his last start.  McClanahan faced a White Sox team that is the best in the majors against southpaws and only 4 of the 7 hits left the infield!  The lefty is undefeated in his 4 daytime starts this season and struck out 23 hits in 18 and 1 / 3 innings!  Look for Gonzales to come up with another strong start at home here.  He went 4-0 with a 3.21 ERA in his home starts last season.  Gonzales also went 3-0 with a 2.91 ERA in day game starts last season.  The Rays have the best bullpen in the American League.  The Mariners bullpen has a solid 3.58 ERA in home games this season.  Tampa Bay has lost 5 straight games and scored an average of only 3.6 runs per game and our computer math model projects a very strong outing for both Gonzales and McClanahan in this one. That said, all signs point to an under here.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8 that is posted at most books as of late morning Sunday.  We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER

#969/970 ASA play on: OVER 8.5 Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers, 8:05 PM ET - Jose Berrios has been the Twins most consistent starter this season by far and is a fantastic pitcher. However, when he has struggled through the years it has tended to be on the road and his starts at Texas have been no exception. In his last two outings (both on the road) against the Rangers, Berrios has been rocked for 8 earned runs in 8 and 1 / 3 innings. The Twins right-hander allowed 5 homers in those two starts. None of the Rangers last 5 games have resulted in an under and Texas has averaged scoring 5.5 runs in its last four games. The point is that it will not be surprising to see Berrios have some struggles in this match-up. However, the good news for Berrios (and for Twins fans) is that he should get plenty of run support in this one! Minnesota will be able to tee off against a struggling Mike Foltneywicz. The Rangers right-hander has allowed 12 earned runs on 16 hits in 6 and 1 / 3 innings with 5 home runs surrendered in his last three starts. Also, against the Twins, Foltneywicz has 3 career starts and all resulted in an over and he compiled a 6.32 ERA in those outings. Though some of that is a few years back, in terms of current form this season, Foltneywicz is truly having a rough time. This includes the Texas righty going 1-4 with a 6.88 ERA and .336 BAA in his night starts this season. Look for the over to improve to 7-3 in the Twins last 10 games with a high-scoring one tonight. This total is in the 8.5 range but our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over

#973/974 ASA top play on 10* OVER 7.5 Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Indians, 7:10 PM ET - This total was 8.5 and has dropped to a 7.5 and this is still American League baseball and this move seems awfully aggressive.  We will take advantage of the line value being offered by the betting markets here.  The Orioles Keegin Akin faced the Indians lineup earlier this month.  Cleveland's Aaron Civale faced the Baltimore lineup earlier this month.  The hitters just saw these pitchers and, though Civale has solid overall numbers, the Orioles got to him for 4 earned runs and hit 3 homers in that match-up.  Akin was more successful in his start but he was also fortunate and gave up quite a few hard hit balls.  Also, that start was at home for Akin but now he faces the Indians on the road and he has a 1.73 WHIP in his two road outings this season and has been in some jams as a result of too many hits and walks.  The Indians, off a 7-2 win yesterday, will make Akin pay for putting too many guys on base in this rematch.  There has only been one under in the last four games between these teams and these four games have averaged 13.25 runs per game.  Cleveland has scored an average of 6 runs per game their last 9 games.  Only 2 of the Orioles last 9 games have been unders and Baltimore has averaged scoring 5 runs per game during this stretch.  This total is in the 7.5 range but our computer math model shows this one getting close to or possibly even into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 4 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 9 runs (5-4 final at a minimum) in this one.  Bet Over

#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET – The Pirates have lost 8 straight games and have scored an average of only 2.5 runs per game during this losing streak. The Nationals have seen 10 of their last 12 games stay under the total. Washington has scored an average of only 2.2 runs per game in those 10 match-ups that stayed under the total. 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams at DC have stayed under the total. Looking at the full season ERA numbers for these two pitchers it may seem contrarian to be on the under but this play is about more than just a pair of struggling lineups. Let's talk about those starting pitchers. Tyler Anderson has held opponents to a paltry .220 batting average while striking out 32 in 29 and 2/3 innings spanning his 5 road starts this season. Patrick Corbin has an amazing 0.41 ERA over his last 3 starts against Pittsburgh and has struck out 27 while allowing just 10 hits in 22 innings spanning those 3 starts against the Pirates. That said, all signs point to an under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Tuesday. We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER

#953/954 ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets, 7:10 PM ET - The Cubs are off a low-scoring 2-0 win at home versus the Cardinals last night.  The Mets are off a 7-3 home loss to the Padres which went over the total.  9 of New York's 13 games dating to late May have resulted in an over.  The Cubs Jake Arrieta has seen his starts lead to a high percentage of unders this season but this has truly been an anomaly and is highly unlikely to continue.  Prior to a rare strong start in his last outing, Arrieta had an 8.28 ERA over his 6 preceding starts.  On the road this season the veteran right-hander has a 6.40 ERA in 7 starts.  David Peterson gets the start for the Mets but it is certainly not based on merit as his days in the rotation could be numbered.  Peterson is having a very rough time with a 1-5 record and 6.32 ERA on the season.  Things have not been improving for the Mets southpaw either as he has a 9.88 ERA over his last four starts.  The Cubs have won 5 straight games and will have plenty of confidence against Peterson as they averaged 6.3 runs in the first 4 games of their hot streak.  Last night's Cubs game was a pitchers duel but you can see why this one will be anything but that.  Also, Peterson had a rough start at Chicago earlier this season and now faces the Cubs at home where he has allowed 6 earned runs in 7 and 2 / 3 innings his past two starts.  Couple that with Arrieta's long-term struggles (his last start notwithstanding) and this should be a highly entertaining game with plenty of fireworks. . This total is in the 9 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one.  Bet Over

ASA top play on 10* OVER 9.5 Los Angeles Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 4:10 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have been the worst team in baseball this season but the over trend in their games continues and this is the perfect spot for another one.  Arizona actually has the #1 slugging percentage, .445, in day games this season.  Also, the Diamondbacks rank in the top ten in the majors for slugging percentage against left-handed pitching and in home games.  That being said, there is solid value here in going against Patrick Sandoval of the Angels.  He has some good numbers this season but those have come at home.  He did have one road start and was successful in that one but he got hit harder than you would think just from looking at the box score and Sandoval had to work out of multiple jams in that one.  In his only road appearance out of the bullpen this season he got hit hard.  Last season Sandoval was 1-4 with a 6.87 ERA on the road.  In the prior year, his rookie season, he was winless in 5 games (4 starts) on the road and had a 6.52 ERA.  The over is a perfect 8-0 in Arizona's last 8 home games.  The Diamondbacks have scored an average of 5.6 runs in those games.  Arizona has allowed an average of 6.2 runs per game in those home contests.  With Jon Duplantier getting the start here, those runs against numbers are unlikely to improve!  Duplantier is winless with a 10.03 ERA in his 3 starts this season.  His only prior MLB experience was in 2019 when he pitched in 15 games and opponents hit .283 against him.  He has labored this season and Duplantier has yet to complete 5 innings in a start.  Considering the Diamondbacks bullpen has a 4.62 ERA and a majors-worst .271 BAA, that spells trouble for Arizona in this one.  The Diamondbacks are on a 5-32 run but they can hit Sandoval here and that is why the over is the play.  Arizona gives up tons of runs but they can score plenty too especially in a day game at home.  Also, the Angels hot bats have helped lead the way to an 8-2 run in which Los Angeles has scored an average of 7.4 runs in the 8 victories.  This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one.  Bet Over

ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox, 8:10 PM ET - This total opened up at an 8 yesterday and is now up to a 9 this morning.  This is despite the fact that each of these teams have trended under recently.  What this tells us of course is that some sharp action is coming in on the over in this one and this game was already on our radar for a potential play Thursday and now it is go time.  Chicago's Dallas Keuchel has a 4.81 ERA in home starts this season and the O/U is 4-2 in those outings.  He has a respectable ERA last 3 starts but has given up 19 hits in the 15 innings over those 3 starts.  Also, Keuchel has given up 4 homers in his last 2 starts and both of those games went over the total.  The O/U is 3-0 in Hyun Jin Ryu's last 3 starts.  In this battle of southpaws, the Blue Jays left-hander is likely to struggle.  The White Sox are one of the top hitting and top slugging teams in the majors when facing lefties.  Also, Ryu is off a very rough start against the Astros in which he allowed 6 earned runs in 5 and 2 / 3 innings and only struck out one while walking three.  That game was at home and now Ryu is on the road where he has trended with higher ERA's than at home in each of his last 4 seasons and that trend holding true this season as well.  The Blue Jays have scored an average of 5.4 runs in 5 most recent road games.  The White Sox have averaged scoring 6.7 runs a game this season in games against left-handed starters.  This total is in the 9 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one.  Bet Over

ASA top play on 10* OVER 10 Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox, 7:10 PM ET - We already had our eyes on this one based on the pitching match-up and now a couple of other factors solidified this play.  Yesterday's game was 7-1 through 4 innings and stayed that way!  As a result the game stayed under the total even though the teams had 8 runs through the first 4 frames.  We like coming back with overs a day after a game like that.  Another factor we like here is that it will be another very warm day today in Boston so good weather for an over is expected this evening at Fenway Park.  Back to the pitching match-up which had us eyeing this game, the Red Sox start Nathan Eovaldi here and he has a 4.47 ERA at home this season which is more than 2 runs higher than what he has produced in road games this season.  Now he takes on a surging Astros team that has won 7 of 9 games and has scored an average of 6.2 runs in the last 10 games.  Though the Red Sox lost yesterday and managed just 1 run, this was on the heels of a 5-game winning streak in which they produced 5.6 runs per game.  Tonight Boston will take advantage of facing a struggling Jake Odorizzi.  He only recently came back from an injury and his overall struggles this season have continued.  He is 0-3 with a 7.16 ERA in his five starts.  In limited action last season, Odorizzi also was winless and he had a 6.59 ERA in four starts.  This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one.  Bet Over

#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers, Friday at 8:10 PM ET – The Diamondbacks Matt Peacock has been impressive.  His most recent outing was a quality start and this followed a strong start against a tough Dodgers team at Los Angeles.  In fact, Peacock has been very strong on the road this season with a 0.79 ERA in 4 games (1 start) away from home this season.  The Brewers lost Lorenzo Cain to injury recently and though his numbers had been down this season he had been heating up since mid-May.  Another injury situation came up last night with Kolten Wong exiting the game in the 4th inning.  Milwaukee did get the big win last night but managed only 7 hits and the injury issues are not helping matters for a team averaging just 3.7 runs per game at home this season.  The Diamondbacks did pile up hits yesterday but that is unlikely to be the case again tonight.  The Brewers start Freddy Peralta here and he has been fantastic.  Peralta is 5-1 with a 2.38 ERA this season while striking out 83 in 56 and 2 / 3 innings while allowing only 28 hits.  Also, this will be the first start these pitchers are making against these opponents so there is little to no familiarity for the hitters against these pitchers.  The Diamondbacks will struggle against Peralta and the Brewers last 4 games when facing a right-handed starter have seen them total only 18 hits!  That is an average of 4.5 hits per game when facing a right-handed starter!  Milwaukee, before yesterday, had totaled just 4 runs in the last 3 games against right-handed starters! That said, all signs point to an under here.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Friday.  We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER

ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 3:40 PM ET - The Diamondbacks Madison Bumgarner has a 9.90 ERA his last two starts.  The Mets David Peterson is winless with a 5.55 ERA in his 5 road starts this season.  The pitching match-up sets up well for plenty of runs here.  New York O/U is 4-0 the last 4 games.  Arizona O/U is 5-0 the last 5 games.  The Mets have averaged 7 runs per game over the last 4 games.  The Diamondbacks have averaged 5.4 runs per game over the last 5 games.  Peterson faced the Diamondbacks four weeks ago and allowed 3 earned runs in less than 2 innings on the mound.  In 2 of his last 3 starts Bumganer walked 4 in just 4 innings in each start.  Overall, Bumgarner has been hit hard in each of the last two starts.  The Mets bullpen has a 4.10 ERA on the road this season which ranks them in the middle of the rankings in the majors.  In other words, nothing special, and the Diamondbacks bullpen has a 5.16 ERA at home this season which ranks their bullpen as one of the worst in the majors.  In fact, the .281 BAA for Arizona's bullpen in home games is the worst in the majors.  In terms of the lineups here, Arizona is hitting .266 at home this season which is #1 in the National League.  The Mets, as noted above, have been heating up at the plate again and have reached 13 hits in 2 of last 3 games.  Bet Over

ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants, 4:05 PM ET - Total opened up at an 8.5 and has moved to an 8 which is likely due to the Angels recent under trending.  That being said, based on this pitching match-up the value is very large here with the over 8 after the line move.  The Giants Johnny Cueto has a 6.23 ERA with opponents hitting .382 against him in the month of May.  This has encompassed his 4 starts since returning from injury and clearly Cueto is "not right" since coming back.  Speaking of "not right", the Angels Dylan Bundy is winless in his 9 starts this season.  Also, Bundy is 0-2 with a 15.84 ERA in his last 3 starts so his current form, just like Cueto's, is concerning to say the least.  Some line value being offered here because it is the Angels recent under trend that pushed this total down some but their bats should have no trouble getting to a struggling Cueto.  At the same time, Bundy is highly unlikely to shut down a red hot Giants lineup.  San Francisco is 6-3-1 to the over and has scored an average of 6.8 runs per game in the last 10 games.  The Angels, despite 4 straight unders, have scored 4 or more runs in 5 of the last 7 games.  Getting this game to 4-4 would lead to at least a 5-4 final and a winning ticket for us.  Given all of the above we expect both teams to reach that number in this one.  We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one!  Bet Over

ASA top play on 10* OVER 7.5 Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland A's, 9:40 PM ET - Angels starter Shohei Ohtani will start here after yesterday's planned start for him was scratched by traffic trouble on the way to the stadium.  His velocity was down in his most recent start and he was fortunate to only allow 2 earned runs.  Ohtani gave up 5 hits and walked 2 and this was in under 5 innings of work.  That start was at home and though his prior road outing was a good one, Ohtani gave up 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his road start previous to that one.  He is known for having control troubles at times.  A's starter Sean Manaea is also likely to give up plenty here to a potent Angels lineup.  Manaea just faced Los Angeles and was successful but now they get to see him again in his very next start.  This tends to be an edge for the hitters and he had allowed 10 earned runs on 20 hits in only 8 innings over his last two starts prior to that most recent start.  Also, prior to a strong outing versus LA, he had allowed 8 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings combined in his two most recent starts versus the Angels.  Even without Mike Trout (currently out with an injury), the Angels have plenty of big sticks in the lineup that can do damage against a struggling Manaea who had been very hittable of late.  The over was 9-2 last 11 Angels games prior to yesterday's staying under in a rare shutout loss for Los Angeles.  Today's game very likely to make up for that shortfall yesterday with an exciting game reaching double digits in runs scored per our computer math model.  Oakland was on an 8-3 run to the over last 11 games before yesterday's under and the A's have consistently scored an average of 5 runs per game in recent weeks.  We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one!  Bet Over

#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers, Monday at 7:40 PM ET – Chris Paddack is rounding back into form for the Padres and has a 1.38 ERA this month and averaging nearly a strikeout per inning in May.  The first two games of this series snuck over the total.  Monday's game was 5-0 going to the top of the 9th but miraculously went over the total when San Diego scored 3 in the top of the 9th.  Yesterday's game also got over the total, just barely, but this was despite the teams combining for only 7 hits in the game!  It was another strange result where a game went over the total that should not have.  That has been the story in each of the first two games of this series and we see that coming to an end here.  The Brewers have had one big game at the plate in their last 6 home games but, in the other 5 games as a host Milwaukee has scored an average of only 2 runs per game.  After getting just 2 hits in yesterday's game, the Brewers will struggle again here versus a tough Padres starting pitcher.  Speaking of tough pitchers, Eric Lauer is projected to come up strong here against his former team.  Lauer is coming off a dominating start at the AAA level where he struck out 12 in 5 scoreless innings!  This season he has a 2.87 ERA with the Brewers and wants to make the most of this outing against the team that he started his career with.  San Diego has a .364 slugging percentage against lefties this season and that is one of the worst marks in the majors as the Padres rank 24th.  This will be the Padres first time facing their former teammate.  As for Paddack, he has a 1.80 ERA in his two starts against the Brewers in his career.  That said, all signs point to an under here.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket.  We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER

#905/906 ASA PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers, Monday at 7:40 PM ET – The Brewers have struggled against lefties this season and are hitting only .224 against southpaws.  Milwaukee is just 2-6 against left-handed starters this season and has averaged only 2.5 runs per game in those 8 games.  Facing Blake Snell is unlikely to help matters for Milwaukee.  Since he pitched in the AL for the Rays for many seasons, Snell has an edge here in that the Brewers hitters have very little experience against him in their lineup.  Snell has had great stuff all season again this year but had struggled with command earlier in the campaign.  He seems to be turning the corner now and his dominating stuff has led to 18 strikeouts in 10 innings in his last two starts.  Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff is winless in his last 4 starts but gets a league low run support from his teammates!  So he has pitched very well but generally gets very little support from his teammates at the plate and, as you can see, that is likely to continue here as Snell could dominate.  The good news for the Brewers is Woodruff has been incredible on the mound this season with a 1.58 ERA and opponents hitting just .145 against him in his 9 starts this season!  The Padres have been hot at the plate but the under is a perfect 3-0 in Woodruff's 3 career starts against San Diego and he has allowed only 1 earned run in last 8 innings against them.  That said, all signs point to another under here.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 4 to 5 runs and even if it reaches 6 that is still a winning ticket.  We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER

ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland A's, 4:07 PM ET - The Angels Dylan Bundy is 0-5 with a 6.02 ERA on the season.  He also is dealing with a foot issue.  Despite the foot problem, it was announced on Friday that Bundy was cleared for this start and that is good news for the Oakland lineup!  Bundy has given up 13 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings over his last two starts.  He is simply not in good form right now and the Athletics have scored an average of 5.3 runs last 8 games.  Yesterday's game was a 6-2 win for Oakland which barely stayed under the total.  That ended a perfect 6-0 run to the over in Athletics games but that high-scoring trend likely to quickly resume here.  A's starter Sean Manaea is also likely to give up plenty here to a potent Angels lineup.  Manaea has allowed 10 earned runs on 20 hits in only 8 innings over his last two starts.  He also allowed 8 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings combined in his two most recent starts versus the Angels.  Even without Mike Trout (currently out with an injury), the Angels have plenty of big sticks in the lineup that can do damage against a struggling Manaea who has been very hittable of late.  The over was 6-1 last 7 Angels games prior to yesterday's barely staying under.  Today's game very likely to make up for that shortfall yesterday with an exciting game reaching double digits in runs scored per our computer math model.  We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one!  Bet Over

#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9 Runs – Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET – The Reds have trended over this season but yesterday's game went over the total in spite of just 15 hits total in the game.  Cincinnati has not hit lefties well this season.  The Reds are hitting just .214 versus southpaws and this ranks them in the bottom third of the majors.  Though the Brewers Brett Anderson is off a tough start he should bounce back strong here.  Anderson's last 3 starts against the Reds were last season and all resulted in unders and the lefty gave up only 3 earned runs total in 12 innings over his last two starts versus Cincinnati.  The Reds start Sonny Gray here and he loves pitching at home.  Since coming to Cincinnati, Gray is 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA in 25 home starts!  Also, in Gray's last two starts versus the Brewers he has a 0.90 ERA with 12 strikeouts in 10 innings.  The Reds have not faced a left-handed starter in a long-time and that could make this match-up especially tough for them.  As for the Brewers bats, they have only had one big game at the plate last 10 games!  In the other 9 games the Brewers have averaged scoring only 2.1 runs per game!  That said, all signs point to another under here.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER

ASA top play 10* on OVER 10 Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals, 2:20 PM ET - The wind is expected to be blowing out toward left field or left-center field at about a 15 mph clip on a mild afternoon at Wrigley Field.  Day games tend to get crazy with weather like this in Chicago at this time of year and the situation, based on this pitching match-up, is ideal for a back and forth high-scoring affair in this one.  The Nationals start Joe Ross.  The Washington right-hander has a 5.80 ERA this season and if he finishes the season north of a 5.00 ERA it will be his 4th straight year doing so!  Ross just got rocked for 8 earned runs in 4 innings in his most recent start and this followed a start in which he was in a lot of jams because of 5 walks in 5 innings.  Ross skipped the 2020 season and only made 3 starts in 2018.  So to see some full season results on him you have to look more at his 2019 and 2017 stats.  Well, in 2019 day games he was hit at a .312 clip.  In 2017 afternoon games he was hit at a .328 clip!  A day game with hitter-friendly weather at Wrigley Field is highly unlikely to help Ross.  As for his counterpart, Trevor Williams, plenty of struggles are also expected.  The Cubs right-hander has not even totaled 9 innings in his last 3 starts combined and he has been rocked for 10 runs on 15 hits in those short outings!  Just like last season, opponents are hitting about .300 against Williams and he has gone a combined 4-10 with a 6.22 ERA since the start of the 2020 season.  In 2019 he had a 5.38 ERA.  Williams has a 9.00 ERA in 5 day starts this season and had a 10.24 ERA in his 2 afternoon starts last season!  Washington is hitting .260 in road games this season and that is #1 in the National League.  The Cubs have hit 32 homers at home to rank 4th in the majors in that category.  With the wind blowing out, Chicago is very likely to add a few to that total today!  We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one!  Bet Over

#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET – The Braves Charlie Morton has struggled at times this season but this is the perfect match-up for him to get back on track.  The Mets lineup has been severely depleted by injuries.  New York managed a tight 4-3 win yesterday but neither team hit the ball well.  In fact, the under is perfect so far in this series and the Mets are averaging only 3 runs last 5 games.  David Peterson starts for the Mets here and is off a very strong outing.  He will also take advantage of facing a Braves team that ranks #25 out of 30 MLB teams against left-handed pitching with a poor .215 batting average.  Peterson has allowed only 3 earned runs on just 8 hits while striking out 17 over his last 12 and 1 / 3 innings in his past two road starts.  With the Braves likely to struggle to score runs and the Mets missing a lot of firepower in their lineup due to major injury issues, runs will be hard to come by in this one.  Each of Atlanta's last 4 games against a left-handed starter has resulted in an under.  That said, all signs point to another under here.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER

#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – St Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates, Tuesday at 7:45 PM ET – The Cardinals John Gant has a 1.83 ERA this season.  The Pirates JT Brubaker has a 2.58 ERA this season.  Brubaker has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any of his 7 starts and actually has allowed 1 earned run or less in the majority of his starts this season!  Gant has allowed a total of 2 earned runs over his last 4 starts!  The O/U is 5-14-2 in Pittsburgh's road games this season!  The Pirates have scored an average of only 2.5 runs per game in the last 14 games!  The Cardinals enter this game on a 1-4 run and the losses have had a lot to do with struggling at the plate as St Louis has scored an average of only 2.6 runs in those 5 games.  With both bullpens having performed fairly well this season and also coming in after an off day Monday, the relievers are rested and ready for this one as well.  In terms of opponents batting average, the Cardinals bullpen ranks #1 in the National League with a .198 BAA and the Pirates pen ranks 10th in the majors with a .217 BAA this season!  5 of Brubaker's 7 starts this season, including all 4 on the road, have resulted in an under.  6 of Gant's 7 starts this season, including all 3 at home, have resulted in an under!  That said, all signs point to another under here.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER

ASA top play on 10* OVER 9.5 Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, 7:40 PM ET - These lineups just saw these pitchers Wednesday and they pounded them.  We expect more of the same here.  The White Sox saw Dallas Keuchel get rocked for 6 earned runs in less than 6 innings against the Twins.  The Chicago southpaw has walked 4 while striking out just 2 over his last 2 starts.  Yes a pitcher can pitch to contact and have success but not getting enough strikeouts can eventually catch up to you and this is particularly true when facing a team with power.  The Twins certainly have some sluggers in their lineup and, even with Buxton currently out, these teams combined for 21 runs when Keuchel faced JA Happ last week.  Happ, Twins southpaw, has been rocked in each of his last 3 starts against the White Sox with 19 earned runs allowed in 12 and 1 / 3 innings versus Chicago!  The White Sox lead the majors in both batting average (.293) and slugging percentage (.480) against left-handed pitching this season!  It will be very nice weather in Minneapolis for this one and the Twins have scored 11 runs on 19 hits the past two games as they wrapped up a home series against Oakland yesterday.  Minnesota has a .434 slugging percentage versus lefties this season and that ranks 7th out of all 30 MLB teams.  As for Keuchel, he historically pitches better at home than on the road.  This season is still young and 2020 was a shortened season.  Looking at his stats from 2015 to 2019 only one of the 5 seasons saw him pitch as well on the road as at home.  In the other 4 seasons his ERA was a run higher in one season and 2 runs higher in the other 3 seasons.  In none of the 5 seasons was he better on the road than at home.  Keuchel likely to again struggle against the Twins here, especially since this one is at Target Field, but also look for the White Sox potent lineup to continue its dominance of left-hand pitching and pound Happ again!  The White Sox have scored at least 8 runs in 4 of the last 6 road games.  Chicago also has scored an average of 8.7 runs per game in going 3-0 against Minnesota this season.  With the Twins now at home for the series rematch, we look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one!  Bet Over

#969/970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9 Runs – Houston vs Texas, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET – The Astros start Cristan Javier here.  Even though he is off what appears to be a very ugly start, he allowed only 4 hits in 5 innings but 2 of them were homers.  Overall, Javier has held hitters to a .183 batting average in his career and his most recent start was the first time this season he had allowed an earned run at home.  Javier had given up zero earned runs on 8 hits in 17 innings of work while striking out 22 batters.  This home dominance is nothing new as, last season, in his rookie year he went 3-0 with a 2.17 ERA and held hitters to a .135 batting average and this was in 6 games (5 starts) at home.  The Rangers Mike Foltneywicz will also be geared up for a strong start here as he faces the team that drafted him and he faces them in Houston too.  He has an edge here as the Astros batters, all except one, have no experience against him.  When Foltneywicz is on and facing opponents not use to his offerings he is a tough customer and we expect that to be the case again here.  The under has cashed in 4 straight times in Rangers road games.  The Astros have only averaged scoring 3.3 runs per game in Javier's last 3 starts as he has not received much run support.  That said, all signs point to an under here.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER

#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati, Monday at 6:35 PM ET – The Reds have scored a total of only 6 runs in 4 games. Yesterday's game was rained out and, prior to Saturday's 9-2 loss going over the total, Cincinnati games were on a run of just 1 over in 5 games. The Reds have scored 3 or less runs in 6 of 8 games. The Pirates also have been struggling at the plate. Pittsburgh had a rare high-scoring win yesterday but this was after 6 straight unders. The Pirates scored only 8 runs total in those 6 games! The Reds start Tyler Mahle in this one. He has a 1.29 ERA on the road this season. Mahle has pitched 11 scoreless innings while allowing only 8 hits and striking out 10 in his last two starts at Pittsburgh. The Pirates start Mitch Keller. Though his numbers on the season do not impress, Keller is off an excellent start at San Diego and should enjoy success against the Reds. Keller has struck out 20 in 13 innings over his 3 starts against Cincinnati. The last time Keller hosted the Reds he gave up only 1 earned run in 6 innings while fanning 9! The Reds are hitting .201 on the road this season and that ranks Cincinnati dead last in the majors. Pittsburgh has a .346 slugging percentage overall which ranks the Pirates dead last in the majors. Runs will be hard to come by on a cool evening at PNC Park for this one. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER

ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals, 4:05 PM ET - We fell just short with this play yesterday but will come right back with it today.  Even after a sub-par performance at the plate yesterday, the Nationals lead the NL with a .288 batting average against left-handed pitchers.  Braves southpaw Drew Smyly gets the start here.  Though he had a successful outing against the Nationals earlier this season, his current form is definitely trending the wrong way.  Smyly has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts.  Washington starter Jon Lester will be making just his 2nd start of the season.  Though he had a solid 5-inning performance in his first start this season, Lester did record only 1 strikeout in his 5 innings.  Atlanta enters this game having scored at least 5 runs in 4 of the last 5 road games.  The Braves have a .264 batting average and .500 slugging percentage in night games this season.  Both of those marks lead the NL!  Considering that plus the Nationals being #1 in the National League for batting average against lefties and you can see why this one should be a high-scoring match-up.  Though Washington's bullpen has been solid, too many innings may be expected of them here as Lester has averaged about 4 and 2 / 3 innings per start in his last 9 MLB starts.  As for the Atlanta bullpen, the relievers have struggled this season on the road in particular and also the Braves pen has a 5.56 ERA last 5 games.  We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one!  Bet Over

ASA top play 10* on OVER 8.5 Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals, 7:05 PM ET - The Nationals lead the majors with a .305 batting average against left-handed pitchers.  Braves southpaw Max Fried gets the start here as he returns from a hamstring injury.  Fried is having a rough season thus far and that includes an ugly start at Washington 4 weeks ago.  In that outing he was also opposed by the Nationals Erick Fedde and both pitchers got hit hard.  We expect similar results here.  Not only are the Nats pounding southpaws this season, the last two times Fried has pitched at Nationals Park he has allowed 5 earned runs in each start even though he lasted just 2 and 2 and 1 / 3 innings, respectively, in those two starts.  Fedde has been pitching better since struggling against the Braves 4 weeks ago but Atlanta has been a nemesis of his.  Fedde is winless in 4 career starts against the Braves and has a 12.85 ERA in those outings.  The O/U is a perfect 4-0 in those outings.  Indeed, when Fedde starts against Atlanta there has never been an under.  We do not see that changing here.  Fedde is off a quality start in his most recent outing but that was his first quality start (6 or more innings, 3 or less earned runs) of the season.  The Braves have a .273 batting average and .514 slugging percentage in night games this season.  Both of those marks lead the majors!  Considering that plus the Nationals being #1 in the majors for batting average against lefties and you can see why this one should be another high-scoring match-up just like the first one between these starting pitchers this season.  Though Washington's bullpen has been solid, too many innings may be expected of them here as Fedde prone to early exits when facing the Braves.  As for the Atlanta bullpen, the relievers have struggled this season on the road in particular and also the Braves pen has a 6.80 ERA last 5 games.  We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one!  Bet Over

ASA top play 10* on OVER 8.5 Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins, 7:40 PM ET - The Twins last 5 games have all totaled double digits in runs.  The O/U, as you would expect given that information, is a perfect 5-0 in this stretch.  Those 5 games averaged 12.8 runs per game and all signs point to another high-scoring game here.  Texas has scored an average of 5.2 runs per game on the road this season.  The Twins have scored an average of 8.8 runs per game overall last 4 games.  Rangers starter Dane Dunning has a 10.57 ERA in his last two starts.  Minnesota starter Kenta Maeda has a 9.69 ERA in his last 3 starts and has been hit hard.  23 hits (including 6 homers) against Maeda in 13 innings in his last 3 starts combined.  In 13 road games this season for Texas, only 4 have resulted in an under.  The Rangers bullpen has a 6.80 ERA on the road this season and Dunning is averaging slightly less than 5 innings per start.  The road struggles of the Texas bullpen could be on display early in this one as you can see based on that.  With the Twins Maeda also in very poor current form, we look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one!  Bet Over

#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Milwaukee vs LA Dodgers, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET – The O/U is 4-10 in Dodgers road games this season.  The O/U is 8-15 in Brewers games against right-handed starters this season.  Facing LA's Dustin May is unlikely to alter the trending of that latter stat for Milwaukee.  The Dodgers right-hander has a 2.53 ERA this season and struck out 10 against the Padres in his last start.  Speaking of impressive pitching, the Brewers Brandon Woodruff has a 1.55 ERA this season and has also been piling up strikeouts.  The Dodgers struggles at the plate are very likely to continue against Woodruff.  Los Angeles has been held to an average of 1.7 runs per game last 6 road games!  The O/U is 0-6 in those games!  The Brewers have had 5 games so far on this homestand and have been held to an average of 2.4 runs per game!  On the season Milwaukee has a .289 on base percentage at home - that is the worst mark in the National League.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 4 to 5 runs and even if it reaches 6 that is still a winning ticket.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER

#929/930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 10.5 Runs – Toronto vs Atlanta, Friday at 7:35 PM ET – This O/U opened up at 9.5 and went to 10.5 and there are key reasons why this is offering huge value to the under.  First off this is a battle of southpaws.  The Braves are hitting an unreal .136 versus left-handed pitching!  As you would expect with that horrible number, Atlanta ranks dead last in the majors in that category this season.  The Blue Jays are also struggling versus lefties as Toronto has a slugging percentage of .358 versus southpaws to rank 25th out of 30 teams in MLB.  Starting tonight is Drew Smyly for the Braves.  He just returned from injury and had a horrible first inning but then settled in and allowed only one more run the rest of the way.  Smyly will draw some momentum from the way that start wrapped up and the Blue Jays have very few hitters with experience against him which is another definite advantage.  The Braves bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack this season so they are not horrible and the Blue Jays bullpen is actually at the top of the majors with a 2.30 ERA on the season.  That Toronto pen will be supporting a Jays starter, Robbie Ray, who saw his fastball nearing triple digits in his most recent start.  Ray fanned 9 in that outing and has a 2.81 ERA this season and should be in top form against an Atlanta lineup that has struggled so badly with lefties this season.  The Braves have had two big games at the plate (both against the Cubs) in last 9 games but the other 7 games saw Atlanta average only 2.6 runs per game.  The Blue Jays have scored an average of just 3.3 runs last 9 games.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 8 runs and even if it reaches 9 (or even 10 based on the current posted total of 10.5) that is still a winning ticket.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER