Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-11-18 | Twins v. Angels OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels, Friday at 10 PM ET |
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04-28-18 | Rangers v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 4 PM ET |
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10-06-17 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 7 | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER the Total - Cleveland Indians vs New York Yankees, Friday at 5:05 PM ET |
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09-22-17 | Nationals v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - New York Mets vs Washington Nationals, Friday at 7:10 PM ET |
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09-19-17 | A's v. Tigers OVER 10.5 | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Detroit Tigers vs Oakland A's, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET |
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08-30-17 | Pirates v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET |
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08-24-17 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers, Thursday at 10:05 PM ET |
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08-13-17 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 101 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET |
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08-09-17 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET |
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08-05-17 | A's v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland A's, Saturday at 9:05 PM ET |
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08-01-17 | Mets v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets, Tuesday at 8:40 PM ET |
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07-21-17 | A's v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
TOP 10* OVER in New York Mets vs Oakland Athletics at 7:10 ET - Sure the total looks "big" on this game but that is because the situation demands it. Even though this inter-league game is being played in an NL park (so there will be no DH), both of these starting pitchers are likely to get rocked. The Mets Steven Matz simply isn't "right" as the southpaw has given up 12 earned runs in only 5 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last two starts. The Athletics Paul Blackburn shows great numbers in terms of his ERA over his first 3 starts this season. However, Blackburn had command issues in his most recent start and walked 4 batters. Also, in his prior start he did give up 8 hits while not recording a single strikeout. The point is that Blackburn shows a 1.83 ERA to the betting markets but he truly has not pitched nearly as impressively as that ERA would lead to believe. While the Mets are only 4-3 in their last 7 games they have averaged scoring 8 runs per game in those 4 victories. The A's were off yesterday but they are on a solid 4-2 run that has seen them score at least 5 runs in all 4 victories. Don't be surprised if both teams have big games at the plate here. Oakland's bullpen has a 5.68 ERA on the road this season and the Mets bullpen has an overall 4.98 ERA on the season. We look for the over to improve to 3-0 in Blackburn's last 3 starts and 3-0 in Matz's home starts on the season. Also, the over is an amazing 42-15 in Mets night games this season. The over is on a 62-43 run in Oakland's games against left-handed starters. Grab the OVER in this one in early Friday evening action. |
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07-18-17 | Tigers v. Royals OVER 10.5 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 8:15 PM ET |
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07-15-17 | Dodgers v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER the Total - Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET |
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07-08-17 | Royals v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET |
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07-01-17 | Rays v. Orioles OVER 11 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET |
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06-28-17 | Rangers v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER the Total - Cleveland Indians vs Texas Rangers, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET |
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06-25-17 | A's v. White Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET |
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06-21-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 16-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET |
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06-17-17 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET |
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06-10-17 | Angels v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET |
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05-28-17 | Braves v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 1-7 | Push | 0 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over the Total – San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET |
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05-25-17 | Tigers v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET |
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05-20-17 | White Sox v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 16-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 8.5 in Seattle @ 10:10 ET - Mike Pelfrey remains winless on the season and things appear to be getting worse rather than better for the veteran righthander. Pelfrey has a 6.13 ERA in his last three starts and he has given up 3 homers in his last two outings. Pelfrey faced the Mariners one time last season and the results were not good as he got rocked for 6 earned runs on 12 hits (2 of them leaving the yard) in an outing that lasted only 5 innings. The Mariners have Yovani Gallardo toeing the rubber tonight in Seattle and he has decent numbers in his last 3 starts but walks and homers were an issue and plus he faced a bad Phillies team and the Rangers and A's (both clubs hitting only .236 on the season). While the White Sox bats do not have impressive numbers on the season, they had picked things up at the plate recently - at least prior to yesterday's 2-1 win. The Pale Hose had averaged 5.5 runs per game in their 8 games before yesterday's low-scoring win. The over is 9-4 this season in Seattle's home games that have had a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. There also is significance in the fact that last night's game between these teams stayed under the total. The White Sox have not had back to back unders since the first 3 days of this month. The Mariners have not recorded back to back unders since late April. Look for the bats from both clubs to respond tonight after last night's pitchers duel. Bet the OVER in Seattle Saturday night! |
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05-18-17 | Red Sox v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Oakland A's vs Boston Red Sox, Thursday at 10:05 PM ET |
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05-11-17 | Reds v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 10:15 PM ET |
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05-06-17 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET |
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05-03-17 | Mets v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 16-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves, Wednesday at 7:35 PM ET |
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04-29-17 | Braves v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET |
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04-15-17 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds, Saturday at 1:10 PM ET |
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09-13-16 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
ASA Tuesday MLB Top 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners @ 10:05 ET: Seattle will be facing the Angels Alex Meyer and the 6'9 right-hander has struggled in his limited big league appearances to date. This truly should not come as a big surprise as Meyer compiled a 4.79 ERA and was hammered with a .281 batting average against at the AAA level in the minor leagues last year. Meyer also has not built up a lot of stamina yet for pitching deep at the MLB level and this should help our cause here as the Angels bullpen has been getting extra work over the past week plus with many extended efforts due to short outings from the starters. Meyer only lasted 3 and 1 / 3 innings in his start last week and has already given up 11 walks and 13 hits (including 3 homers) in his 9 and 1 / 3 innings at the MLB level. Facing the red hot lineup of the Mariners is a tough draw for the big righty as Seattle has surged back into the Wild Card race thanks to 6 straight wins! The M's have won 8 of their last 11 games with production at the plate leading the way. The Mariners have averaged 7 runs per game in their last 11 games. Also, Seattle has averaged 11 hits per game in their last 13 games. The Mariners won't be the only lineup pounding out hits tonight. This is not a good match-up for Seattle's Taijuan Walker as no matter how much he wants payback for his ugly start against the Angels last week, it has been proven they are a "match-up issue" for him. In his last two starts against Los Angeles (both within the last 6 weeks), Walker has been rocked for 12 runs (11 earned) in only 4 and 2 / 3 innings of work while giving up 4 homers and only striking out 1 batter. Will the third time against the Angels be "the charm" for Walker? It is highly unlikely when you take a look at the other 4 starts he has made since July 1st that were not against the Angels. Walker has given up 15 earned runs in 22 innings over those four other starts. He just doesn't "have it" right now and the Angels rank 7th out of 30 MLB teams with a .263 batting average against righties this season. The Mariners are right in front of LA at the #6 spot with a .264 batting average versus right-handers this year. As you can see, we have every reason to expect a high-scoring game to erupt in Anaheim tonight. The over is 13-6 this season in games where Seattle is on the road and priced between -100 and -125. Bet the OVER! |
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08-27-16 | Indians v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
ASA Saturday TOP 10* MLB Total of the Year: OVER 9.5 in Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Indians @ 8 ET: The Indians hammered the Rangers, including their AL-worst bullpen, in yesterday's 12-1 blowout win. Yes, despite having the best record in the American League, Texas has the highest bullpen ERA of any team in the AL. How do they win so many games then? It's about clutch hitting and solid starting pitching for the Rangers. The concern for Texas today is that they certainly are unlikely to get solid starting pitching here. AJ Griffin gets the start for the Rangers and he has been getting hit hard for two months straight now. Dating back to early July Griffin has been hammered to the tune of 57 hits in 47 and 1/3 innings. The Texas right-hander has a 6.44 ERA over his last 8 starts. The over is 5-1 in Griffin's home starts this season. Carlos Carrasco will be toeing the rubber for the Indians this evening at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Even though he is off of a strong start that came at Oakland and the A's have been one of the weakest lineups in baseball this season. Note that in his last visit to Texas, Carrasco was rocked for 5 earned runs. Also, in his 5 starts prior to the strong start against the Athletics, the Indians right-hander had compiled a 6.23 ERA as he allowed at least 3 earned runs in every single start and also allowed at least one home run in each of the 5 starts. The over is 12-4-2 in the last 18 games between these clubs as this continues to be a very high-scoring series. The over is 7-3 this season when Texas is off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. Also, the over is 22-13 this season in Rangers home games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs. We're grabbing the OVER in Texas as our MLB Total of the Year going Saturday evening. Best of luck, ASA. |
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08-20-16 | Astros v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
ASA Saturday MLB TOP 10* OVER 9 / 9.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros @ 7 ET: There were 9 homers hit in yesterday's game and we are expecting another slug-fest in Baltimore Saturday evening. The Astros have now won 5 of their last 8 road games and Houston has averaged 7.6 runs per game in these 8 contests away from home. The Orioles have reached double digits in hits in 5 of their last 8 games and have averaged 6.1 runs per game in these 8 games. Baltimore will have Chris Tillman on the mound and, though he has pitched well this season, he is currently having some issues with his shoulder. Tillman enters this start having allowed a homer in each of his last 3 starts. In his start prior to these 3 (and also his most recent home start) Tillman was rocked for 6 earned runs in an outing in which he only lasted 5 innings. The way the ball is flying right now at Camden Yards it is likely to be a tough evening for him as well as the Astros Mike Fiers. The over is 8-2 in Fiers 10 road starts this season and he has a 6.40 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in those 10 outings. The Astros right-hander comes into this start having allowed 5 homers in his last two starts. In Astros road games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs, the over is on a 26-11 run! The over is 27-18 in Orioles games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs this season. 5 of the O's last 6 games have gone over the total and 5 straight Astros games have gone over the total. Both bullpens also had extra work in yesterday's slug-fest and that further strengthens this play tonight. We'll grab the over in Baltimore for a TOP 10* Saturday! |
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07-20-16 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
10* TOP OVER 8.5 or 9 in NY Yankees vs Baltimore @ 7:05 ET - After opening up a 9.5 this line has dropped down to not only a 9 but even quite a few books are now showing with 8.5 as of Noon ET. This line move is offering fantastic value for the over. The Yankees will have Michael Pineda toeing the rubber this evening and he has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Pineda gave up 3 homers in his most recent start and his recent history against the Orioles does not bode well for today. In his last 3 starts versus Baltimore, the Yankees right-hander has given up 13 earned runs on 21 hits in the 14 innings over these three outings. The O's pitching outlook for today is no better as they have Yovani Gallardo getting the start. He has a 2.21 WHIP in his last 3 starts as both walks and too many hits allowed have had him trying to constantly pitch out of jams. Gallardo has a 7.39 ERA in his 6 road starts this season. He has a 5.60 ERA and has allowed 3 homers in his 3 career starts against the Yankees. Gallardo's most recent road start stayed under (despite him struggling as usual) but 4 of his 5 prior road starts resulted in an over. As a road dog in a range of +125 to +175 this season, the over has gone 10-4 in Baltimore games. We expect another "wild one" here with Gallardo on the mound on the road and the O's as a big dog. The over is 24-14 in Orioles games against teams with a winning record this season. We'll grab the over in the NY Yankees game in evening action Wednesday for a TOP play. |
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07-01-16 | Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 8 (or 8.5) runs in Arizona vs San Francisco @ 9:40 ET Friday - The Giants are off of a big 12-6 win at Oakland last night. The over is now 7-2-1 in San Francisco's last 10 games. Arizona was off yesterday but lost 9-8 to the Phillies the prior day. That was the Diamondbacks 5th over in their last 7 games. The Dbacks have averaged 12.6 hits per game during this hot streak at the plate while San Fran comes into this game having averaged 12.1 hits and 6.9 runs per game in their last 10 games. The over is 5-1 this season in Arizona games when they were off the prior day. The Diamondbacks are facing Johnny Cueto who has great numbers this season for the Giants but gave up 6 earned runs in 6 innings in his most recent start. The Giants right-hander has fared well in his two starts against the Dbacks this season but certainly has not been unhittable. In fact, he's given up 16 hits in 14 innings versus Arizona this season. Toeing the rubber for the Diamondbacks is Shelby Miller and he is winless in his 6 home starts this season. Overall on the season Miller has compiled a 6.79 ERA and he has been hit very hard in 4 of his last 5 starts. Miller has faced the Giants twice this season and he has given up 8 hits and 7 walks in less than 8 innings of work. He's been in and out of trouble throughout those two starts against San Francisco and we expect him to remain in trouble throughout this outing tonight against a red hot Giants lineup. As a road fave in a range of -150 to -175, San Francisco is on a 53-28 run to the over. We'll take the OVER in Arizona for a TOP PLAY Friday night. |
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06-28-16 | Orioles v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 8.5 runs in San Diego vs Baltimore @ 10:10 ET Tuesday - Both starting pitchers in tonight's match-up are having rough seasons. We are getting line value here because the game is being played in a pitcher-friendly venue in San Diego. The fact is that the Padres are 23-16 to the over at home this season but Petco Field, of course, is still "graded" as a pitcher-friendly park. That is why two struggling pitchers can match-up and yet a total of only 8.5 is offered on the game. Ubaldo Jimenez gets the start for the Orioles and he is 4-7 with a 6.55 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP year to date. Erik Johnson gets the start for the Padres and he is 0-5 with an 8.54 ERA and a 1.90 WHIP this season. Jimenez has particularly struggled on the road this season where he is 0-5 with a 10.12 ERA while Johnson has struggled seemingly no matter where he is throwing and who he is facing, as you can see from those numbers. Neither team was in action yesterday and the over is 5-2 in San Diego games this season when they were off the prior day. The over is 10-5 this season when Baltimore enters a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more and the Orioles enter this series on a 5-game winning streak. The Padres are off of back to back 3-0 games (one a win, one a loss) but they previously had gone 8-1 to the over in their 9 prior games. The lone under during that stretch was when these pitchers squared off in Baltimore last week. That was a 7-2 final though and now each lineup is getting a quick second look at a pitcher they just faced less than a week ago. We expect this game to reach double digits in runs as the hitters hold the upper hand in the rematch. We expect the Padres to add another over to their 5-1 mark to the over in inter-league action thus far this season. We'll take the OVER in San Diego for a TOP PLAY on Tuesday. |
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06-24-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 11 or 11.5 runs in Colorado vs Arizona @ 8:40 ET Friday - The Rockies faced the Diamondbacks in early May and got to Archie Bradley for 4 earned runs in his 6 innings on the mound. Now that they are getting 2nd look at him and it is with favorable weather conditions for the batters at hitter-friendly Coors Field, we expect Colorado to hit Bradley much harder in the rematch. The Dbacks right-hander is off of a strong start but that came against struggling Philadelphia. In his two prior starts Bradley gave up a combined 5 home runs! Colorado will have Tyler Anderson toeing the rubber tonight and the southpaw will be facing an Arizona team that is the #1 slugging team in the league against left-handed pitching this season with a .488 slugging percentage so far this year. Anderson has been successful in the two starts he has made this season but the left-hander has yet to face a lineup that has pounded lefties like the Diamondbacks have this season. With yesterday's 7-6 loss, Rockies games have recorded 3 straight overs. The over is 11-6 in Colorado home games with a total set at 11 or 11.5 runs this season. The over is 19-11 this season in Arizona's games against teams with a losing record. With two unproven hurlers on the mound, and the Rockies bullpen struggling at home all season long, we expect another Coors Field slug-fest tonight. We'll take the OVER in Colorado for a TOP PLAY on Friday. |
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06-18-16 | Reds v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY (IL Total of the Year) ON 10* UNDER 8.5 runs in Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds @ 4:10 ET Saturday - The Astros Dallas Keuchel has had a rough start to this season but he's still had a number of solid outings at home (where he dominated last season) and he also got burned in his last start when poor play on defense let the wheels come off of in a big inning that never should have happened. We expect the tough southpaw, who threw very well in his most recent start, to completely shut down a Reds team that has no experience against him. Keuchel has made 5 starts at home this season and 3 of those were quality starts where he pitched 6 innings of more and allowed 3 runs or less. Last season the Astros ace left-hander went 15-0 with a 1.46 ERA in his 18 home starts. Cincinnati has struggled against left-handed starters this season as they have averaged scoring only 3.8 runs per game in those match-ups. They will be fortunate to score anything today off Keuchel as he resumes his home dominance. The Astros hitters will also be facing a southpaw hurler today and that's bad news for Houston as they have hit just .233 this season against left-hand pitching. That ranks them near the bottom of the league as only the Orioles have fared worse than Houston in the AL when it comes to batting average versus lefties. We look for the Astros to struggle against a big left-hander that will be making his MLB debut today. The 6-5/225 southpaw Cody Reed has been toiling in the minors thus far but it was for strategic reasons that the Reds were holding off until mid-June to bring him up. Reed has absolutely been ready and Cincy is excited for him to make his debut today. He had a solid spring training with the Reds and at AAA Louisville with a 6-3 record and 3.20 ERA. Reed has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning and he has also done a great job of keeping the ball down in the zone as he's recorded nearly twice as many ground ball outs as outs through the air. The Astros are known for being free-swingers and they are also known for struggling against lefties. As a result, look for Reed to keep Houston off-balance throughout this game and that turns this game into a pitchers' duel with Keuchel. The under is a perfect 9-0 in Houston's last 9 games. The under is also a perfect 4-0 in Keuchel's last 4 starts. We'll gladly test the double perfect angles we have for this game. We'll grab the UNDER for a Top Play (IL Total of the Year) in the Houston Astros game Saturday afternoon. |
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06-15-16 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 8 runs in Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners @ 7:10 ET Wednesday - The Mariners Nate Karns has been struggling with his command (5 walks in each of his last two starts) and now makes his first ever start against his former team. Facing the Rays will likely put even more pressure on Karns and that could result in even more issues with control. Karns gave up 7 earned runs in just 4 innings in his most recent road start. Tampa Bay will have Drew Smyly toeing the rubber at Tropicana Field this evening. The Rays southpaw is also struggling. Smyly is winless in his last 3 starts while compiling a 10.20 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in these three outings. In Smyly's two most recent starts against the Mariners, the lefty has given up 9 earned runs on 16 hits in a total of 9 innings on the mound. The Mariners scored 7 runs in yesterday's loss at Tampa and the over is now 14-5-1 in Seattle's last 20 games. The over is 20-13 in Seattle's games against teams with a losing record so far this season. The Rays and M's will be playing their 5th match-up so far this season and none of the first four have stayed under the total. The Rays have won 8 of their last 10 games and averaged 5 runs per game during this strong stretch. Based on tonight's pitching match-up, a result tonight similar to last night's 8-7 battle is what we're forecasting here. We'll grab the OVER for a Top Play in the Tampa Bay Rays game Wednesday evening. |
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06-06-16 | Royals v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 9 runs in Baltimore vs Kansas City @ 7 ET Monday - No one will be happier to see Orioles uniforms than the Royals. Kansas City had been red hot and scoring runs like crazy before they ran into the tough pitching of the Indians vaunted starting rotation. After four straight losses and being held to 1 run or less in three straight games, the Royals are likely to resume their hot hitting tonight based on facing a struggling Orioles hurler. Before struggling at the plate in their three most recent games, KC had averaged 11.8 hits per game in their last 10 games and, talk about consistency, the Royals reached double digits in hits in every single game. Also, Kansas City averaged 6.8 runs per game during this hot stretch at the plate and they now face Mike Wright who is returning from the minors for this outing. Wright is winless in his 3 most recent starts at the MLB level and he compiled a 7.81 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP in these outings. The over is 6-2 in his MLB starts this season. The Royals will have Danny Duffy toeing the rubber this evening and the KC southpaw has seen each of his last two starts result in overs as Duffy has allowed 3 homers in these outings. Also noteworthy about tonight's game is the fact that Wright allowed FOUR homers in his most recent start. Duffy has produced solid numbers in his career starts against the Orioles but Baltimore comes into this game having won 4 of their last 5 games and has averaged scoring 8 runs per game in these contests. The O's are hot and have plenty of confidence at the plate. The over is 8-4 in their games against left-handed starters this season and 13-5 in Baltimore's games against teams with a winning record this year. We'll take the OVER in Baltimore for a TOP PLAY Monday. |
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06-04-16 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 9 runs in Texas vs Seattle @ 9:10 ET Saturday - With yesterday's game going over the total, Seattle is now on a 100% perfect 10-0 run of overs! The Mariners have averaged 11.5 hits per game in their last dozen games and they have a number of dangerous hitters in their lineup enjoying solid success in their career appearances against the Rangers Martin Perez. The Texas southpaw has given up 7 walks and 3 homers in his last two starts against Seattle. Perez enjoyed some success against the Mariners in his only appearance against them earlier this season but he now gives them a second look. Prior to the successful outing against the M's earlier this season, Perez gave up 14 hits in 11 innings in his prior two outings versus Seattle. Nate Karns gets the start for the M's and he has enjoyed some success against Texas in his career but he's been more and more hittable in his recent outings leading into this start. Karns has given up 17 hits in his last 3 starts even though he averaged only 5.5 innings per start. The over went 3-0 in those 3 starts for Karns and the over is 4-1 in Mariners road games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The over is 13-7 in Rangers home games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs this season. Also, with yesterday's over, the over is now 12-6 this season in Texas' games against teams with a winning record. A lot of potent bats (and red hot bats) in this match-up Saturday should lead to another over...the 11th in a row for Seattle! We'll take the OVER in Texas Saturday. |
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06-02-16 | Mariners v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 7.5 runs in San Diego vs Seattle @ 9:10 ET Thursday - Just when you thought the match-ups between these clubs couldn't get any crazier - 20 runs Tuesday - they again combined for 20 runs Wednesday. The Padres did most of the damage yesterday after the Mariners did most of the damage the day before. We expect both teams to continue crushing the ball Thursday night. Seattle's games have gone over the total in 8 straight games and the M's are averaging 11.5 hits per game during this potent stretch of work at the plate. The Padres have gone over the total in 6 straight games and the typically light-hitting San Diego lineup has had at least 9 hits in 7 of their last 9 games. Facing Wade Miley during a time in which he is struggling should help San Diego to stay hot at the dish. The Mariners southpaw has an 8.10 ERA in his last two starts and has given up 4 homers in these two outings. The Padres will counter with Colin Rea. The right-hander will be toeing the rubber tonight after a short stint in the minors. Rea's most recent MLB starts have seen him go winless in 3 mid-May starts while producing a 6.00 ERA. The over is 4-1 in Rea's home starts this season and 6-3 in all of Miley's starts this season. Considering the combined 14-0 over run that these teams are on, we raise this play to a Top level status. We'll grab the OVER in the San Diego Padres game Thursday for a TOP PLAY. |
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05-27-16 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 10.5 Runs - San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies, Friday at 8:40 PM ET - The Rockies are happy to be back home where they are hitting around .300 on the season. They got "warmed up" for this homestand by exploding for 8 runs in last night's game at Boston after previously struggling to score runs on the road trip. The advantage they have tonight is facing a hurler who has been struggling on the road this season and whom they have enjoyed recent success against. Matt Cain gets the ball for the Giants and he is 0-2 with a 6.62 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. Also, this will already be the third time this season that he's facing the Rockies and even though one of the first two starts was at pitcher-friendly San Francisco, his results against Colorado have not been good. Cain gave up 6 earned runs in each of the two starts against the Rockies. He also allowed a total of 3 homers in the 2 outings and he did not record a single strikeout in the 2nd outing. He was not able to get out of the 5th inning in either start. As you can, the Giants will have to score a lot of runs to keep up with Colorado in this one and they should be able to do so! San Francisco will face a hurler who has struggled at Coors Field. Tyler Chatwood will be toeing the rubber in Denver tonight. The Rockies right-hander has been fantastic on the road this season but, like most pitchers, he has struggled at Coors Field. Chatwood is 1-3 with a 6.65 ERA in his home outings this season. He also has been rocked by the Giants in recent starts and they did already face him at Coors Field last month. In his last three starts against the G-men, Chatwood has given up 14 earned runs in 18 innings of work. San Fran has pounded him for 6 homers in those 3 starts. The over has gone 5-2 in Giants Friday games this season and 4-2 in Rockies home games where they are a small favorite of up to -125. We are forecasting another solid over right here and the situation is a strong one which elevates this play to a TOP PLAY rating. Take the OVER in Colorado Friday. |
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05-25-16 | A's v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 8 Runs - Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners, Wednesday at 10:10 PM ET - Zach Neal makes his first-ever MLB start for the A's on Wednesday night. He got his first taste of the bigs two weeks ago when he pitched some middle-inning relief in a game that was a blowout loss at Boston. Neal gave up 3 earned runs in 3 innings in that stint and this is a pitcher whose minor league numbers at the AAA level were not impressive until this season. We are not "sold" on Neal just yet and certainly expect him to struggle in his first ever MLB start as it comes on the road against a Mariners club that has scored at least 5 runs in 13 of their last 20 games. Yesterday's M's win was their 6th in their last 8 games and Seattle has averaged nearly 7 runs per game in the 6 victories. They should get to the rookie Neal early and often in this game. The key to the over is that Oakland faces a "fading" Hisashi Iwakuma. The Mariners right had a solid start against the A's about three weeks ago but, since then, he has given up 10 earned runs on 22 hits in 17 innings over his last 3 starts. With Oakland having already seen Iwakuma in September AND October of last season plus facing him again in early May and now late May as well, familiarity with his repertoire of pitches should lead to some success at the plate tonight. The over is 15-9 in A's road games this season and 17-9 when they are off of a loss. The Athletics have a history of overs on "get away days" and that is part of what has led to a 36-19 "over" run in Wednesday games. We are forecasting another right here and the situation is a strong one which elevates this play to a TOP PLAY rating. Take the OVER in Seattle Wednesday. |
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05-20-16 | Blue Jays v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 8.5 Runs - Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - This absolutely has the makings of a pitchers' duel. Tyler Duffey has been phenomenal for the Twins so far this season and he should have another fantastic outing here. The problem for him (and for Minnesota fans) is that the Twins simply can't hit! Minnesota is hitting only .234 this season as a team and the Twins are averaging only 3.4 runs per game in their home games this year. The Minnesota bullpen has a 2.62 ERA in home games this season and the Blue Jays bullpen has a 3.00 ERA in road games this season. Each of Duffey's last 3 starts have stayed under the total and he has a 1.85 ERA on the season. Aaron Sanchez will be toeing the rubber for Toronto tonight and 6 of his 8 starts this season have stayed under the total. Sanchez has made 5 road starts this season and the Blue Jays right-hander has a 2.34 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in those outings. In road games this season Toronto is hitting only .229 entering Friday's action. The Blue Jays have been held to 3 runs or less in 7 of their last 12 games while the Twins have been held to 3 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 games. Struggles at the plate, solid bullpens, strong starting pitchers...it all adds up to great line value on the under in this series opener Friday. The line move from a total of an 8 to now an 8.5 has added even more value where the value truly was already off of the charts in this one! Take the UNDER in Minnesota for a TOP PLAY Friday. |
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05-17-16 | Red Sox v. Royals OVER 7 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 7 Runs - Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:15 PM ET - We will play OVER in the Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals game. The Red Sox lineup is filled with confidence right now. Boston just completed a 7 game homestand where they won 6 of the 7 games and averaged a ridiculous 10.4 runs per game! It was not a fluke as Boston reached double digits in hits in all 7 games and, in fact, had 14 or more hits in 6 of the 7 games. As you would expect with these types of numbers, all 7 games went over the total. The Royals Yordano Ventura is unlikely to slow down the BoSox hittters. Ventura has an 8.36 ERA in his last 3 starts and he has walked 14 while striking out only 5 in 16 innings his past three starts. The Royals right-hander is 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in his three career starts against the Red Sox. Boston will have Rick Porcello toeing the rubber tonight. Although Porcello has an impressive record so far this season, the magic may be starting to fade as he has allowed 3 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Porcello has not fared well in recent visits to Kauffman Stadium either as the Red Sox right-hander has given up 10 earned runs in 8 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts at Kansas City. 6 of the last 7 meetings in Kansas City between these clubs have gone over the total. The Royals sticks got off to a slow start this season but they've averaged 9.5 hits per game in their last 8 games and they match up well with Porcello while the Boston lumber also remains red hot in this match-up. Take advantage of the low total. Take the OVER! |
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05-11-16 | A's v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 9 Runs - Oakland Athletics @ Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET - We will play OVER in the Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox game. Rick Porcello has put up some impressive numbers for the Red Sox early this season and that is what is helping to drive the downward move on this total as it has gone from a 9.5 to a 9. The result is even better value for the over in this match-up because Porcello will be facing an A's lineup that has averaged 5.5 runs per game in their last 6 games and that also averaged 11 hits per game during this stretch. The last time Porcello faced Oakland was exactly a year ago to the day and he allowed 9 hits in his 5 innings on the mound. This season Porcello has faced a slate of struggling offense so his numbers are well below where they are eventually going to end up for this season. Thus the value in a spot like this to essentially "go against" him. The reason the play is the over rather than Oakland is because the A's will have Eric Surkamp toeing the rubber tonight. The lefty is 0-2 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in his four starts this season. He's been very hittable as you can you see and Surkamp faces a red hot Red Sox offense that also just saw a southpaw starter last night too. In winning 9 of their last 13 games the Red Sox have exploded for an average of 6.2 runs per game and Boston has amassed double digits in hits in 9 of those 13 games. The over is 4-2 in Boston's last 6 games and 6-1 in Oakland's last 7 games. When the Athletics are off of game where they allowed 10 runs or more the over is 11-6 the last 17 times. The over is 5-2 in Boston's games this season when the total is set at 9 or 9.5 runs. Take the OVER for a Top Play! |
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05-06-16 | Mets v. Padres UNDER 6.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 105 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 6.5 Runs - New York Mets @ San Diego Padres, Friday at 10:10 PM ET - We will play UNDER in the New York Mets at San Diego Padres game. Yesterday's game snuck over the total but the Mets had only 4 hits in the game. Though the Padres had 11 hits yesterday, San Diego had been held to an average of just 5 hits per game in their last 4 games. The Padres have struggled to score runs all season and now must face the Mets Noah Syndergaard who has a 2.50 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP this season. This absolutely should be a pitchers duel as the Padres will counter with Drew Pomeranz. The San Diego left-hander isn't the big name pitcher that Syndergaard is but Pomeranz has been "in the zone" this season to say the least! The lefty has a 2.48 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP so far on the year. Both of Syndergaard's road starts have stayed under the total this season and he has compiled a 0.69 ERA away from home so far. The Mets right-hander dominated the Padres in his most recent start against them with an 8 inning shutout featuring 9 strikeouts against 0 walks and only 3 hits. Pomeranz should also cruise tonight on the mound as the Mets haven't seen him since the 2012 season and he's on top of his game right now. The Mets have averaged just 2.3 runs per game in their 3 games against left-handed starters this season. The Padres are averaging just 3 runs per game in their home games this season. With the line move from 6 runs to 6.5 runs there is even more value with the under in this match-up. Take the UNDER for a TOP PLAY! |
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05-03-16 | Mariners v. A's UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 7.5 runs - Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics, Tuesday at 10:05 PM ET - In his career, Hisashi Iwakuma is 23-10 in road starts. He's made 3 this season and has pitched very well on the road despite not yet having a victory to show for it. Last season Iwakuma went 5-1 on the road with a 2.56 ERA and batters only hit .220 against him. The Athletics have been struggling to score runs and the Oakland Coliseum is a pitchers park. That means a pitchers duel should be expected here. The Mariners have stayed under the total in 4 straight games and the A's have stayed under in 3 straight games. Oakland is hitting only .217 at home and averaging just 2.8 runs per game there. Seattle, overall on the season, is hitting only .232 this year. The Mariners bullpen has been stellar away from home though with a 0.96 ERA and the A's bullpen has a fantastic overall 2.42 ERA this season. The Athletics pen will be supporting ace Sonny Gray tonight. Off of a tough, short start in his most recent out, Gray will assuredly bounce back stronger than ever tonight. He is 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA in home games this season. Also, Gray is 36-22 with a 2.93 ERA overall in his career. He is 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA in his career against the Mariners and Seattle's Iwakuma has allowed the A's just 1 earned run in each of his last two starts against Oakland. There is some extra line value here because the total jumped up from a 7 to a 7.5 and this is likely because of Gray's tough outing. He'll bounce right back as nothing is mechanically wrong and Iwakuma will likely have a great start as well as he continues his long-term run of success on the road. The under is 8-2 in Oakland's divisional games and 5-1 in their games against teams with a winning record. The Mariners have had just 8 overs in their first 25 games this season. Take the UNDER! |
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04-21-16 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 7 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 3:45 PM ET - We will play OVER in the Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants game. There have been two straight pitchers duels in this series after yesterday's 2-1 Diamondbacks win but the first game in this series was a high-scoring match-up and that is how we expect this four game series to wrap up today. In the first game in this series it was a 9-7 Arizona win. The Diamondbacks have won four straight road games so the hitters are stepping into the batters box with plenty of confidence. Today Arizona's lineup faces the Giants Johnny Cueto. The San Francisco right-hander is still getting use to his new home mound and he got crushed for 6 earned runs on 10 hits in 7 innings of work in his only home start this season. In his two most recent starts against Arizona, Cueto has given up 7 earned runs on 16 hits in less than 12 innings of work. The news is not all bad if you're a San Francisco fan however. The Giants should enjoy success at the plate against Shelby Miller of the Diamondbacks. The Arizona right-hander injured his right hand in his last start and had to exit early. His first two starts this season also did not go well. Miller has allowed 5 homers in less than 13 innings on the mound this season. Miller went 1-12 after the All Star Break last season and he was quite hittable in spring training this year too. It seems he's carried over his struggles from the second half right into the new season as well. With the Giants looking to avoid the sweep, look for their bats to do plenty of damage this afternoon on a day when the wind is expected to be blowing out and overcast skies are expected which means shadows should not be an issues for the hitters in San Francisco today. Take the OVER! |
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04-16-16 | Orioles v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 9.5 Runs - Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers, Saturday at 8:05 PM ET - We will play OVER in the Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers game. With yesterday's 11-5 win Orioles games have gone over the total in four of the last five. Baltimore is averaging 6.8 runs per game in their road games this season. The Rangers offense started a little slow this season but, with yesterday's result, Texas has scored at least 5 runs in 4 of its last 5 games. The Rangers have recorded four overs in their last five games. The Texas bullpen continues to struggle and this is particularly true at home where the Rangers pen has compiled a 13.50 ERA on the young season. Texas starter Colby Lewis has had the luxury of facing the Mariners lineup in his first two starts this season but now faces a much tougher test with the red hot Orioles today. Lewis has a history of struggles (despite a good W-L record) in his home starts. He has a 5.04 ERA in his last 18 starts in Arlington. Lewis has a 5.77 ERA against the Orioles in 7 career starts. Yovani Gallardo returns to face his former team as the O's starter tonight. He will feel some extra pressure facing his former team and, after having success against the light-hitting Twins in his first start this season, Gallardo was quickly given a reality check when he faced the Red Sox in his next start. The Orioles righty allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings of work and a similar result can be expected today. The over is 4-1 in Rangers home games and 4-1 in Orioles road games so far this season. More of the same on Saturday. Take the OVER! |
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04-13-16 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 106 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 11.5 Runs - San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET - We will play OVER in the San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies game. Snow in Denver in mid-April is not uncommon at all. That said, the fact that this is an evening game with a game-time temperature near 70 degrees and the wind blowing out will certainly have the hitters in "attack mode" in this one. Yesterday the Giants scored 7 runs but the Rockies hitters ended up frustrated as Jeff Samardzija had a rare strong start. Colorado's powerful lineup can take out some of that frustration on Jake Peavy tonight. The veteran right-hander allowed 4 earned runs on 10 hits in only 5 innings of work in his season opening start. That does not bode well for Peavy now taking the mound in a hitter-friendly venue considering that his first start was at pitcher-friendly AT & T Park. Peavy did face the Rockies twice late last season and he gave up a pair of homers. He also looked very hittable against the Dodgers last week. Rockies offense should roll in this one but their pitching is a major question mark. Not only has the Colorado bullpen been awful early this season, starting pitcher Jordan Lyles was awful in his first start and that came against light-hitting San Diego. Things won't get any easier for Lyles against the Giants. In his five career starts against San Francisco, Lyles has a 5.81 ERA. He'll be facing a Giants lineup that is expected to get a boost with the return of Buster Posey tonight. Hitters park and a game that should be a slug-fest. This one earns the 10* Rating. Take the OVER! |
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04-12-16 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 7 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 4:10 PM ET - We will play UNDER in the Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers game. Patrick Corbin had a fantastic spring training this year. Undefeated in his five starts and he compiled a 1.71 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a .222 batting average. Corbin was done in a bit by the home run ball in his first start this season but he faced the high powered Rockies and Chase Field is certainly a hitter-friendly venue. Tuesday afternoon Corbin will be "rocking and firing" at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Corbin is healthy again and this is already apparent in the way he's been throwing the ball. The Dodgers series-closing game at San Francisco went over the total but only 1 of LA's 5 prior games went over. The Diamondbacks series with the Cubs closed with an over but 3 of their previous 4 games were unders. The Dodgers will have Kenta Maeda on the mound and his first start showed signs that he is ready to live up to the hype. He dominated in that road outing and now gets extra recognition by making the start in the Dodgers home opener for this season. Maeda will be ready as the Japan native is not a true "rookie" though he is a rookie to MLB. Maeda celebrated his 28th birthday yesterday. The under is 42-31 in Diamondbacks games as a road dog of 125 to 175. When playing after an off day, Arizona was 21-12 to the under the past two seasons. Diamondbacks day games are on a 56-39 under run. Pitchers park and a game that should be a pitchers duel. This one earns the 10* Rating. Take the UNDER! |
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10-20-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 14-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over the Total - KC (Young) @ Toronto (Dickey), Tuesday at 4:05 PM ET Down 2-0 the Blue Jays exploded for 11 runs last night but Kansas City never quit, fighting to get back in the game and forcing Toronto to use four relievers to get out of the game despite the huge early lead. The Blue Jays were the highest scoring team in baseball but also a strong ‘under’ team at home with inconsistent scoring performances and inflated pricing, even though 9.3 runs per game have been scored at the Rogers Centre this season. The ‘over’ is 3-0-1 in Toronto playoff home games and going back to late August Rogers Centre day games have featured an average of 11 runs per game with only three of 11 games finishing with fewer than nine runs. R. A. Dickey is always a bit of a wild card and he did pitch well against Kansas City in the lone regular season matchup. Dickey also allowed four or more runs in 12 of his 33 starts this season and he had by far his lowest strikeout rate of the past four seasons. Veteran Chris Young enjoyed a nice season filling in for the Royals with 18 starts and 16 relief appearances. This will be just the second playoff start for Chris Young, last starting for the Padres in 2006 before making a four-inning relief appearance in Game 1 of the ALDS with Houston. Young pitched well in that game but it was in Kansas City and it was also a game with the pressure taken off as his team trailed from the start. Young made an average start against the Blue Jays in July with three runs allowed in six innings but only four strikeouts. Young was a strong strikeout pitcher in his best years in San Diego but he had just 83 strikeouts in over 123 innings this season and a lower than 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Young has only made two starts since the start of August and the team burned Kris Medlen with five innings of relief work yesterday as the bridge to the late innings may be questionable for the Royals today. The total on today’s game has been unsurprisingly pushed to 9 after the 19 run performance yesterday but these teams have combined to hit 54 extra-base hits including 21 home runs with each team playing just eight games in the postseason so far with both teams averaging at least five runs per game. |
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09-29-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Chicago White Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs - Kansas City (Cueto) @ Chicago White Sox (Samardzija), Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - ASA's A.L. TOTAL OF THE MONTH Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija are high profile former aces going through difficult second halves of the season. Cueto and the Royals will be headed to the playoffs where he will be expected to be the top starter for the team but he has a 7.36 ERA over his last seven starts with the Royals only winning one of those games. The ‘over’ has hit in each of his last eight starts as Kansas City has been one of baseball’s best hitting teams this season with a .265 team average even with some inconsistency down the stretch playing with little urgency with the division title already clinched. The great Kansas City bullpen has had some bumps in the road in recent weeks and in two of the last three days they have received very short starting efforts to put some strain on the relief unit. Out of nowhere Samardzija delivered a gem in his last start allowing one hit over nine shutout innings but he had just six strikeouts and that start came in an early start make-up game last Monday. He has allowed four or more runs in eight of his last 10 starts as he has simply been one of MLB’s worst starting pitchers this season. Samardzija owns a 5.53 ERA at home this season with a 1.38 WHIP and the ‘over’ is 19-11-1 in his starts this season. In three starts vs. the Royals he has allowed 16 runs and the Chicago bullpen owns a 5.55 ERA over the last 10 games. The ‘over’ has hit in four of the last five games between these teams and with big name starters this total is kept at just 7.5, the lowest number since July in this series and that was a game with Chris Sale pitching. |
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09-24-15 | Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs - Milwaukee (Jungmann) @ St Louis (Wacha), Thursday at 7:10 PM ET The ‘under’ is 45-26-6 at Busch Stadium this season and with the Cardinals posting 10 runs last night the number is steady at 7.5 despite strong starting pitching on the mound. Michael Wacha had a tough outing against the Cubs in early September but he has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his last nine starts with great home numbers for the season. Taylor Jungmann has enjoyed an impressive rookie season for the Brewers despite a few recent shaky outings. He has allowed 16 runs in his last three starts but with just 19 hits allowed as he has had some bad breaks with five home runs surrendered. Jungmann has excellent strikeout numbers and St. Louis has never faced him which should be an advantage for the young right-hander. The Brewers have also not faced Wacha this season as both lineups figure to be at a disadvantage in this matchup. In eight of the last 13 games Milwaukee has scored four or fewer runs and the lineup does not resemble the productive units of the past with Jonathan Lucroy and Ryan Braun out of action. Yadier Molina is also out for the Cardinals and despite the continued winning the offense for the Cardinals has been held to four or fewer runs in 15 of the last 20 games. The ‘under’ is 8-2 in the last 10 St. Louis meetings between these teams and another low scoring game seems likely on Thursday night. |
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09-10-15 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs - Milwaukee (Peralta) @ Pittsburgh (Burnett), Thursday at 7:00 PM ET Wily Peralta left his last start after just two innings and while he appears ready to take his next turn his recent outings have been a struggle. Over his last four starts Peralta has allowed 11 runs and 24 hits in just 16 innings of work and he has been very hittable away from home with a 1.76 WHIP in his seven road starts this season. Peralta should get decent support as the Brewers have had a strong August and September so far at the plate. In 17 of the last 22 games Milwaukee has scored at least four runs, so far scoring 33 runs in the first six games of the current road trip. The Brewers swept Pittsburgh at home last week with 21 runs in three games with the ‘over’ hitting in all three contests. The ‘over’ is quietly on a 10-1-1 run in Milwaukee road games and an 18-7-2 run overall in Brewers games. Seven of the last nine Pittsburgh games have played ‘over’ with the offense posting 30 runs in the last six games and the Pirates are back at home tonight after a three-city road trip. Veteran A.J. Burnett will make his first start since late July tonight and it is not clear what the Pirates will get from the right-hander in what may be his final big league season. Burnett was a great story in the first half making the All Star team but in his last four starts he has allowed 38 hits and 22 runs with the ‘over’ hitting in six of his last seven starts. Pittsburgh needs to see whether or not Burnett can pitch on the postseason roster so he will get a chance tonight even though he may not be fully recovered from his strained flexor as he did not even make a rehab start. Pittsburgh has featured an excellent bullpen this season but the unit owns a 5.52 ERA in the last 10 games while facing a heavy workload on the last road trip with only two of nine starters completing seven innings. Milwaukee’s bullpen situation is worse with five of the last six starting efforts failing to go longer than five innings as both teams could provide scoring against bullpens that may need a lot of outs with both starters being monitored carefully from recent injuries. |
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09-02-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* #957/958 OVER 9 - Pittsburgh Pirates (Locke) at Milwaukee Brewers (Davies) 8:10 PM ET It has been a rough season for the Brewers but the recent production for the offense has been promising, batting .275 and scoring six runs per game over the last 10 contests. Milwaukee has scored at least four runs in eight of the last 10 games and Jeff Locke has not been the same pitcher on the road as away from PNC Park he owns a 1.57 WHIP with a 5.61 ERA. Regardless of venue Locke has allowed three or more runs in seven of his last nine starts and he will be on an irregular schedule with his start pushed back two days. Zack Davies is set to make his MLB debut and while he was delivering a fine season in AAA in the Orioles organization he has struggled in five starts since joining Milwaukee’s AAA squad in Colorado Springs. In five starts his WHIP was 1.85 as he allowed 38 hits in 27 innings of work. In 10 of the last 14 games Pittsburgh has scored at least four runs as this remains a strong offensive team. There were 11 runs last night with each team featuring their top starting pitcher combining for 10 extra-base hits even with the squads going just 6-19 with runners in scoring position. The bullpens allowed five runs yesterday and Miller Park remains a tough place for pitchers with 9.1 runs per game on average and a solid lean to the ‘over’ and umpire Tony Randazzo has also been offense friendly this season with over 8.5 runs per game. |
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09-01-15 | Seattle Mariners v. Houston Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UNDER the Total - Seattle Mariners (Elias) at Houston Astros (Feldman) 8:10 PM ET - ASA's A.L. TOTAL OF THE DAY In 12 of the last 13 games Houston has allowed three or fewer runs with two or fewer runs allowed in 10 of those 13 games as the Astros hold a four-game lead in the AL West. Scott Feldman has done his part in what has been a fine season for the veteran right-hander and over his last four starts he has allowed a total of just four runs in 27 innings of work. Feldman has not pitched quite as well at home this season but he has allowed four or fewer runs in 11 straight starts with three or fewer runs allowed in all but two of those outings. He had a quality start at home against the Mariners early in the season and the Mariners are batting just .235 on the season vs. right-handed pitching, scoring fewer than four runs per game. Despite the home run power and success for the Astros, Houston is batting .240 on the season and in 10 of the last 14 games Houston has failed to score more than three runs as the pitching staff has carried the team. Houston posted eight runs yesterday on just 11 hits as they hit three home runs but that type of production has not been the norm in recent weeks for the Astros. Roenis Elias made his first start in nearly two months last week delivering a strong outing in Chicago with three earned runs allowed in nearly seven innings while walking no one. Elias has had some ups-and-downs this season but his control is generally strong and the last time he faced Houston he struck out 10 while allowing just four hits in seven innings. Seattle has been a steady ‘under’ team in road games while Houston has been an ‘under’ team at home with Minute Maid Park averaging less than 7.7 runs per game on the season. Umpire Chris Conroy has also seen the ‘under’ hit in six of his last eight games as a lower scoring game should be expected and the total is higher than last night’s matchup with the lack of elite starters on the mound. |
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08-30-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -116 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 7 Runs - Kansas City (Duffy) @ Tampa Bay (Karns), Sunday at 1:10 PM ET - ASA's A.L. TOTAL OF THE WEEK The Royals continue to provide some of the best offensive production in baseball and now with wins in seven of the last eight games Kansas City seems set on maintaining the AL’s best record. The Royals have scored five or more runs in six of the last eight games and this lineup is particularly well suited against right-handed pitching including posting a .302 average with 6.2 runs per game over the last 10 contests. In his first full season as a big league starter Nathan Karns has delivered solid results for the Rays but one of his absolute worst starts of the season came against the Royals in July, allowing seven runs in six innings. Karns only has one quality start in his last five outings as he has fallen off his steady season pace and the Rays have also had several recent hiccups in the bullpen. While the overall numbers for Tampa Bay at the plate are limited this is one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitching. Danny Duffy has not been able to match the success he had last season and he has gone 10 straight starts without generating more than five strikeouts. Duffy has worse numbers on the road and Tampa Bay for the season has scored more than a run more per game vs. left-handers compared with right-handers. The ‘over’ has hit in six of the last seven Rays games overall and Tropicana Field has leaned ‘over’ on the season as well. |
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08-29-15 | Colorado Rockies v. Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* ‘OVER 7.5’ Colorado Rockies (Rusin) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Happ) 7:05 PM ET - ASA's TOP TOTAL DOMINATION
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08-28-15 | Colorado Rockies v. Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 7 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON #903/904 - 10* ‘OVER 7’ Colorado Rockies (Gray) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Liriano) 7:05 PM ET - ASA's MLB TOTAL DOMINATION The Pirates have won the last 10 Francisco Liriano starts but he has not been pitching as well as that run suggests. The ‘over’ is 7-2-1 in that span and Liriano has allowed at least three runs in four of his last five starts. He has surrendered six or more hits while earning five or fewer strikeouts in each of his last five starts and the Rockies have had recent success vs. left-handed pitching, batting .333 with nearly eight runs per game over the last 10 contests. In eight of the last 12 games Colorado has scored at least five runs as this is still a dangerous offensive team despite featuring one of the worst records in baseball. Rookie and top Colorado prospect Jon Gray has allowed 12 runs in four big league starts and while he has decent strikeout numbers Pittsburgh will be the top offense he has faced at the big league level. Gray is just 23 and while he could find better results away from Coor’s Field his AAA profile doesn’t suggest he is quite ready to be at the big league level as he had a 4.33 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in six starts in Albuquerque but the Rockies hope getting him some experience will help for next season. Since the All Star break Pittsburgh has scored 4.8 runs per game on over 9.5 hits per game while posting at least four runs in 14 of the last 21 games. The Colorado bullpen owns a 4.91 ERA on the season with even worse recent numbers as Pittsburgh seems likely to have opportunities to pile on runs late. Tonight is the first meeting of the season between the Rockies and Pirates but tonight’s game features a lower total than any of the six meetings from last season, with four of those games winding up with at least eight runs. Pittsburgh has been one of the best home teams in baseball and since the break the Pirates have scored 5.1 runs per game at home and the Pittsburgh offense has really supported Liriano, scoring at least five runs in each of his last seven starts. |
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08-27-15 | New York Mets v. Philadelphia Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON - 10* #955/956 ‘OVER 8.5’ New York Mets (Niese) at Philadelphia Phillies (Harang) 7:05 PM ET - ASA's MLB TOTAL OF THE MONTH New York has scored 64 runs in the last six games riding a six-game win streak to open up a 6.5-game lead in the NL East. Aaron Harang does not look like a strong candidate to slow down the production and Harang has allowed four or more runs in nine of his last 11 starts sporting a 7.74 ERA since the start of June. Jon Niese has posted average numbers this season barely clinging to a rotation spot at times and while it appeared he had turned a corner in July he has been hit hard in recent outings, allowing 20 runs in his last six starts. The Phillies have been a formidable hitting team since the All Star break and they have had strong recent scoring vs. left-handers going 3-1 in the last four games vs. southpaw starters with 20 runs scored. Both bullpens are in terrible shape right now and it has shown with the Mets featuring a 4.54 bullpen ERA and the Phillies at 6.42 for relievers over the last 10 games. Neither pitcher looks reliable for a long outing tonight and with 47 runs scored in the first three games of this series there is little reason to expect a slowdown Thursday night. |
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08-26-15 | New York Mets v. Philadelphia Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 101 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
#901/902 – Over 8.5, NY Mets (Colon) @ Philadelphia (Eickhoff), Wed at 7:00 PM ET We cashed in easily on last night’s NYM – Philly over and we’ll jump on it again tonight. Philly starter Eickhoff had great debut but got through six innings on only 75 pitches facing a poor hitting Marlins team. He is 25 and a 15th round pick so not a super prospect with high ceiling stuff, had marginal AAA numbers for Texas before making three good starts in AAA with the Phillies (Hamels trade). Mets starter Colon is way past his prime. He has allowed 4+ runs in four of his last seven starts and his ERA on the road is 5.65. The Mets struggled offensively for much of the 1st half of the season but they have really kicked it in at the plate. They are scoring 5.3 runs per game since the break. The Phillies not far behind scoring 4.8 runs per game since the break. If we get past Wednesday’s starters without going OVER (we don’t think that will happen), both bullpens are struggling as well. New York’s relievers have an ERA north of 4.10 over their last 10 games while the Phils relievers ERA is over 6.00 over that same span. Two hot offenses facing suspect starters and struggling bullpens push this one OVER the total. |
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08-25-15 | New York Mets v. Philadelphia Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 106 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* #951/952 ‘OVER 8.5’ New York Mets (Syndergaard) at Philadelphia Phillies (Williams) 7:05 PM ET Noah Syndergaard has delivered a fine rookie campaign but there is a huge contrast in his home and road numbers with the imposing right-hander featuring a 5.05 ERA on the road, actually yet to pick up a road win with the Mets 1-8 in his road starts. After a dominant July, August has been a little tough in any venue as the innings are adding up and Syndergaard has allowed 13 runs in his last four starts. This will be Philadelphia’s second chance at the rookie and the Phillies have a much different lineup in place, finding nice production in the second half including batting .283 with 5.3 runs per game vs. right-handers over the last 10 games. Playing in Colorado helps to boost the numbers but the New York offense is on an unbelievable run, scoring over seven runs per game over the last 10 contests. New York had 15 extra-base hits last night and the Mets have scored 5.3 runs per game since the break. The Mets are known for strong pitching but New York has allowed 5.3 runs per game over the last 10 games with the ‘over’ on an 8-2 run. Jerome Williams has an average Game Score of just over 40 this season as he has been one of MLB’s worst regular starters. He has pitched slightly better at home and slightly better so far in the second half but he has allowed 141 hits in just over 100 innings of work and the Mets have eight runs against him in two starts this season. Both bullpens have struggled of late and more big numbers should be expected Tuesday night. |
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08-19-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
#955/956 OVER Arizona Diamondbacks (Ray) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Happ) 7PM ET Arizona and Pittsburgh combined for 17 runs last night as the Pirates were walk-off winners in the 15th inning. There were 29 hits last night and 16 hits on Monday as both offenses have had great production in the second half of the season. Since the break Pittsburgh has scored five runs per game with 9.8 hits per game and excellent extra-base hit production. Arizona has scored over 4.6 runs per game on 9.6 hits per game since the break as well. The Diamondbacks have now scored four or more runs in seven of the last nine games and after facing one of the top left-handers in the NL last night they face a far lesser southpaw test tonight. J. A. Happ has an average Game Score of just 48 this season and in two starts with Pittsburgh his WHIP is 1.97. Only once in his last nine starts has Happ allowed fewer than three runs and while Pittsburgh has an excellent bullpen the unit is taxed with long extra-innings efforts in three of the last five games. Robbie Ray owns a strong 3.29 ERA but he has allowed at least two runs in each of his last 10 starts with three or more runs allowed in seven of those outings. The Pirates have won the last three games vs. left-handed starters with 23 runs in those three games including beating Clayton Kershaw as Pittsburgh’s current lineup is well suited to face southpaw pitching. Manny Gonzalez has been a high scoring umpire this season with 9.6 runs per game on average and a high walk rate and with neither starter a lock to go deep into this game, two well worn bullpens could struggle to close out this game against two of the top offenses in the NL in the last month. |
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08-18-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 7 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show |
#901/902 OVER 7 Arizona Diamondbacks (Anderson) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Liriano) 7PM ET There were just five runs last night as Arizona surprised Pittsburgh as a heavy underdog. It was perhaps a bit of a letdown situation for the Pirates coming off a grueling series sweep of the Mets featuring long extra-innings games in two of the three wins. Last night Pittsburgh and Arizona combined for 16 hits including seven extra-base hits despite the low scoring as the Pirates especially struggled with runners in scoring position. Pittsburgh has scored nearly 4.9 runs per game since the All Star break and the Pirates are 39-19 at home this season as they usually have far more success at the plate. Arizona is within a game of .500 as the Diamondbacks have quietly put together a respectable run. Since the break Arizona has scored over 4.5 runs per game while posting 9.5 hits per game with excellent extra-base hit production. Arizona does strike out frequently but the recent numbers vs. left-handed pitching are excellent. Francisco Liriano is always capable of a dominant outing and the Pirates are 8-0 in his last eight starts. He has allowed 10 runs and 23 hits over his last three starts however spanning fewer than 15 innings of work. Walks can be a problem for Liriano and he has actually pitched substantially worse at home where his ERA is 4.00. The Pittsburgh bullpen has been excellent but the heavy workload from the last series could have an impact this week. Chase Anderson has a handful of great starts to his name this season but his overall numbers are quite average. He has allowed four or more runs in five of his last seven starts and he has failed to top five innings in three of his last four starts. In the last 10 games the Pirates are batting .304 with over six runs per game scored vs. right-handed pitching and that is despite facing the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Mets in nine of the last 10 games, three of the best pitching teams in baseball. The ‘over’ is 10-3 in the last 13 PNC Park games and there is good reason to expect both offenses to have better scoring results than last night and with a very low total there is little margin for error for two rather inconsistent starting pitchers. |
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08-17-15 | Oakland A's v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under the Total, Oakland (Gray) @ Baltimore (Tillman), Monday at 7:00 PM ET - ASA's MLB TOTAL DOMINATION After posting 18 runs on Sunday and now 30 runs in three games to take the first three games in this series scoring runs Monday night should be a much tougher task for the Orioles. Sonny Gray continues to deliver a remarkable season with some of the best numbers in the AL including allowing just four runs over his last four starts spanning 32 innings of work. Gray’s Cy Young caliber season has not been fueled by his favorable home ballpark either as he is 8-1 on the road with a 0.98 WHIP and a 1.64 ERA. The Oakland bullpen has struggled but in Gray’s last seven starts the Oakland bullpen has needed only nine innings of work with Gray posting three nine-inning efforts. Baltimore’s win yesterday puts the Orioles in a playoff spot for the moment though five teams are within three games for the second wild card spot. Chris Tillman has endured a bit of a disappointing season but he had found great form in his recent starts before a tough outing in Seattle last week. In his previous six starts he had allowed only five runs and Tillman has been a much better pitcher at home this season. Both teams have far worse recent offensive numbers vs. right-handed pitching and the Baltimore bullpen has been outstanding this season. Oakland has been held to three or fewer runs in seven of the last nine games and Baltimore’s big showing yesterday puts the highest total of the second half of the season on a Gray start. The ‘under’ has had a solid edge in Baltimore home games this season and tonight’s home plate umpire Larry Vanover has been one of the lower scoring umpires in the league this season. |
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08-16-15 | Cincinnati Reds v. Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 110 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 7, Cincinnati @ LA Dodgers, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - ASA Top Total of the Week Zack Greinke has fallen off his incredible late June pace and he did have a rough start in Philadelphia in early August. His numbers are still off the charts for a historic season so far and Greinke has allowed no runs in at least six innings in seven of his last 10 starts for truly dominant results in the majority of his outings. At home Greinke owns a 0.81 WHIP with a 1.43 ERA and he faces a Reds offense that has been held to four or fewer runs in 14 of the last 18 games. The Reds have not faced Greinke this season and Cincinnati has been a terrible road performer at 23-38 with a .236 team average and just 3.4 runs per game away from home. The offensive production for the Dodgers has slowed in the second half and despite eight runs last night Los Angeles has topped five runs just five times in the last 30 games. Extra-base hit production carried the Dodgers early in the season but the big hits have stalled and Los Angeles has been out-hit so far in the second half of the season even with the great pitching the team gets on most nights. It has been a lost season for the Reds but Anthony DeSclafani has been a bright spot. After some ups and downs he is in nice form of late with just seven runs allowed in his last four starts. He is not a big strikeout producer but a 3.75 ERA in 22 starts is impressive considering 10 of those starts have come in one of the worst pitching parks in baseball. The ballpark effect has been clear for the right-hander as his road ERA is just 2.57 with the ‘under’ 7-3-2 in his 12 road starts. Dodger Stadium should provide a good venue for another strong start for DeSclafani and 7 is a high total for a Greinke start with seven of his last nine home starts featuring a total below 7. The ‘over’ has had a slight edge for Mike Estabrook this season but he has a high strike percentage and strikeout rate as he is not likely to create any problems for the starters. |
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07-29-15 | Atlanta Braves v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
#927/928 UNDER Atlanta Braves (Foltynewicz) at Baltimore Orioles (Tillman) 7 PM ET Chris Tillman has endured a disappointing season when he was expected to take on a leading role on a contending Orioles squad. His season numbers are quite poor but he has clearly turned a corner with just five runs allowed over his last five starts spanning over 32 innings of work. Not surprisingly the ‘under’ has hit in all of those games and he won’t be valued like a top shelf starter unless he keeps this run going for a few more weeks and starts to resemble the pitcher he was the past three seasons for the Orioles. Baltimore has some big bats in the lineup but this is not a great offensive team, scoring four or fewer runs in 17 of the last 22 games overall. The Orioles have not topped 10 hits in any of the last eight games but they have the second highest strikeout rate in the AL. Michael Foltynewicz is moving back into the rotation after a spending most of the month in the bullpen and while he owns mediocre overall numbers with a 5.27 ERA, he has a nearly 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio while posting nearly a strikeout per inning. He delivered several impressive outings in May before having three marginal outings in a row in June to shift him out of the rotation but he will be an unfamiliar matchup for the Orioles and he has some potential for success. Baltimore has had one of the AL’s best bullpens all season and while the numbers for the Braves on the season are poor in the late innings the bullpen owns a 2.00 ERA in the last 10 games. Both offenses are hitting below .235 in the past 10 games as well with very poor numbers vs. right-handed pitching. Oriole Park at Camden Yards is a fairly neutral park in terms of leaning towards higher scoring or pitching success and on the season the ‘under’ has the edge by six games with an average of 8.5 runs per game in Baltimore. That is right where this total is but it doesn’t account for Tillman’s current form and the lack of experience in the matchup for both sides. The first game of this series went 11 innings with only three runs and 16 hits and there were just 17 hits yesterday despite 10 runs thanks to two Chris Davis home runs accounting for half of those runs. Those big hits have not been as frequent for either of these teams and the Wednesday night finale should play out in a lower scoring fashion. |
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ASA MLB Top Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-11-18 | Twins v. Angels OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
04-28-18 | Rangers v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
10-06-17 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 7 | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
09-22-17 | Nationals v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
09-19-17 | A's v. Tigers OVER 10.5 | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
08-30-17 | Pirates v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
08-24-17 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
08-13-17 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 101 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
08-09-17 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
08-05-17 | A's v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
08-01-17 | Mets v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
07-21-17 | A's v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
07-18-17 | Tigers v. Royals OVER 10.5 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
07-15-17 | Dodgers v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
07-08-17 | Royals v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
07-01-17 | Rays v. Orioles OVER 11 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
06-28-17 | Rangers v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
06-25-17 | A's v. White Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
06-21-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 16-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
06-17-17 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
06-10-17 | Angels v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
05-28-17 | Braves v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 1-7 | Push | 0 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
05-25-17 | Tigers v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
05-20-17 | White Sox v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 16-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
05-18-17 | Red Sox v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
05-11-17 | Reds v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
05-06-17 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
05-03-17 | Mets v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 16-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
04-29-17 | Braves v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
04-15-17 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
09-13-16 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
08-27-16 | Indians v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
08-20-16 | Astros v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
07-20-16 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
07-01-16 | Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
06-28-16 | Orioles v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
06-24-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
06-18-16 | Reds v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
06-15-16 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
06-06-16 | Royals v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
06-04-16 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
06-02-16 | Mariners v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
05-27-16 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
05-25-16 | A's v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
05-20-16 | Blue Jays v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
05-17-16 | Red Sox v. Royals OVER 7 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
05-11-16 | A's v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
05-06-16 | Mets v. Padres UNDER 6.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 105 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
05-03-16 | Mariners v. A's UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
04-21-16 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
04-16-16 | Orioles v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
04-13-16 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 106 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
04-12-16 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
10-20-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 14-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
09-29-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Chicago White Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
09-24-15 | Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
09-10-15 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
09-02-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
09-01-15 | Seattle Mariners v. Houston Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
08-30-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -116 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
08-29-15 | Colorado Rockies v. Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
08-28-15 | Colorado Rockies v. Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 7 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
08-27-15 | New York Mets v. Philadelphia Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
08-26-15 | New York Mets v. Philadelphia Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 101 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
08-25-15 | New York Mets v. Philadelphia Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 106 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
08-19-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
08-18-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 7 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show |
08-17-15 | Oakland A's v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show |
08-16-15 | Cincinnati Reds v. Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 110 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
07-29-15 | Atlanta Braves v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |