ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels, Friday at 10 PM ET

This is a great value situation as odds makers opened up this total at an 8.5 but it has dropped to a 7.5 as of mid-day Friday. This is NOT a National League game. This is NOT a game involving two stellar starting pitchers. While the Angels Tyler Skaggs has pitched better recently, he still is 0-2 with a 6.28 ERA in his home starts this season. Taking a look at the Twins Lance Lynn, he allowed only 2 earned runs in 6 innings against the White Sox in his most recent start but Chicago did notch 8 hits against him. Lynn has a 7.28 ERA and 1.96 WHIP on the season as both hits and walks (too many) have been an issue for the Minnesota right-hander. As for the two bullpens in this match-up, the Angels numbers rank well in some aspects but the 20 homers the relievers have allowed ranks as the 3rd worst in the majors. Of course that is also why the Angels bullpen ranks in the lower third of the majors for slugging percentage allowed. Which bullpen is the worst for homers allowed? Right on cue it is the Twins as they've allowed 23 and Minnesota's relievers combined 5.27 ERA also ranks as one of the worst marks in the majors. The over is 14-5-1 in Minnesota's last 20 games. The over is a perfect 4-0 this season when the Twins are a road dog in a range of +125 to +175 and the over is 7-2 this season when the Angels are a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175 this season. Bet the OVER in Minnesota for a TOP PLAY in late night action Friday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 4 PM ET

The Rangers Bartolo Colon certainly had been pitching much better than expected early this season. There are signs the wheels are about to come off of his surprising run though. In his most recent start, the 44 year old allowed 4 earned runs on 7 hits in less than 6 innings of work and he struck out only 2. Now he is facing a Blue Jays team that has hit him quite well recently including 3 homers in his last two starts against them. Toronto has averaged scoring 6.7 runs per game in their last 6 home games. They lost yesterday's game 6-4 but did have 10 hits. They've been held below 4 runs only once in their last 6 home games. The Rangers should also enjoy success at the plate today. Texas has averaged 5 runs per game in their last 6 games and they also reached double digits in hits yesterday. The Rangers already faced Jaime Garcia earlier this month. Another look at Garcia within the same month should yield even better results. That start earlier in April versus Texas is part of a stretch in which the Blue Jays southpaw has allowed 4 homers while compiling a 5.75 ERA over his last 3 starts. The over is 4-2 in Rangers games versus left-handed starters this season. Also, Texas is 6-3 to the over this season when off of a win and 5-2 to the over in day games this season. The Rangers Saturday games are 3-1 to the over this season. Look for the over to go to 6-3 in Toronto's day games this season. The over is 6-2 the last 8 when the Blue Jays are off of a loss. More of the same expected in this afternoon match-up featuring two starting pitchers very likely to struggle! Bet the OVER in Toronto in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER the Total - Cleveland Indians vs New York Yankees, Friday at 5:05 PM ET

The Indians Corey Kluber went 10-2 with a 1.81 ERA in his home starts this season. The under cashed 11 of 15 times in Kluber's home starts. Overall, 9 of Kluber's last 12 starts have resulted in an under. The right-hander also has dominated the Yankees with just 3 earned runs allowed in 17 innings versus the Yanks this season. In his last 3 starts versus New York, Kluber has given up only 11 hits in 25 innings while recording 26 strikeouts. The Yankees CC Sabathia faces the team that drafted him (many years ago) and he does have an edge over the Indians here as this is his first start versus Cleveland in over a year. The Yankees left-hander has been throwing very well (2.55 ERA in his last 3 starts) and he went 7-3 with a 3.18 ERA in his road starts this season. The under cashed 10 of 14 times in Sabathia's road starts. Overall, CC enters this start with the Yankees having recorded 17 unders in his last 21 starts. The Yanks got shutout yesterday and have averaged just 3 runs (and 6.4 hits) per game in their last 5 games. The Indians have totaled just 13 hits in their last 3 games. A pitchers duel should prove to be absolutely the right "call" in this one! Bet the UNDER in Cleveland in very early evening action Friday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - New York Mets vs Washington Nationals, Friday at 7:10 PM ET

Even though the wind will be blowing in for this one (north wind), the temperatures will still be mild and the hitters still hold a big edge in this one based on the pitching match-up. The Nationals will have Edwin Jackson toeing the rubber in this one and he is 0-3 with a 12.71 ERA in his last 3 starts. Those 3 outings have totaled only 11 and 1 / 3 innings for Jackson but he has allowed 7 homers in those games! The Mets, despite missing some starters in their lineup, have continued to hit the ball quite well and the over is 7-3 in New York's last 10 games as they've averaged 9.3 hits per game over this period. With the Nationals having locked up the NL East and very nearly having locked up the #2 seed for the NL post-season, they're certainly not feeling any pressure at the plate right now and that's bad news for the Mets Robert Gsellman. The New York right-hander has found the Nationals lineup to be a nightmare for him as Gsellman has given up 13 runs - 9 earned - on 20 hits in the 9 innings over his two starts versus Washington this season. He lost both starts and, as you would anticipate with numbers like that, both games did go over the total. The over is 66-31 in Mets night games this season and the New York bullpen ERA of 4.84 ranks dead last in the National League. The Washington bullpen has a 5.05 ERA on the road this season as they've struggled away from home this year. Bet the OVER in New York in early evening action Friday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Detroit Tigers vs Oakland A's, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET

The Tigers Chad Bell has a 9.75 ERA in his 3 starts this month. The left-hander just moved into the rotation this month after working long relief previously. It has not gone well for Bell and he has particularly been crushed in his 2 home starts as he has compiled a 13.51 ERA at Comerica Park. The A's will have Daniel Gossett toeing the rubber for this one. The right-hander has a lower ERA since the All-Star break but really hasn't pitched much better. He has just had some fortunate bounces because opponents have hit .291 against him since the break and they were hitting .295 against him before the break! In his last 4 road starts Gossett has given up 29 hits in 20 and 2 / 3 innings! In his last 2 road starts, he has walked 6 batters in just 9 innings. Gossett's struggles are likely to continue here as well as for Detroit's starter. Bell is facing an Oakland team that has averaged scoring 6.5 runs per game in their last 14 games! Detroit has averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game in their last 8 home games and the over is 7-1 in those 8 games! We expect another slug-fest here. Oakland's Tuesday games are 15-6 to the over this season. The Tigers are 25-12 to the over in home games where their money line price is in a range of -125 to +125 this season. Bet the OVER in Detroit in early evening action Tuesday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET

The Cubs are 21-8 to the over this season in home games where they are priced in a range of -175 to -250. After last night's low-scoring match-up stayed under the total, plenty of runs can be expected here. Chicago's Jose Quintana has a 4.50 ERA since coming over from the White Sox and he has been far from spectacular. The southpaw just got rocked for 6 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start. Quintana did start against the Pirates two years ago and he allowed a pair of homers in that start. Pittsburgh will have Ivan Nova toeing the rubber at Wrigley Field tonight. The Pirates right-hander is struggling badly right now with 16 hits given up in less than 11 innings in his last two starts. Nova's only good road start since the All Star Break came at Milwaukee and that can have an asterisk by it because the Brewers just aren't hitting well right now. In Nova's other 4 road starts since mid-July he has given up 22 earned runs in 21 and 1 / 3 innings. As you would expect with those types of numbers, 3 of the 4 starts went over the total. As for Quintana, only 1 of his 4 home starts since coming to the Cubs has stayed under the total. With yesterday's win, the Cubs have won 9 of their last 13 games thanks to offensive production as they've averaged 6.85 runs per game during this hot stretch since mid-month! We look for plenty of success for both clubs at the plate tonight and we'll take advantage of the low total posted here. Bet the OVER in the Chicago Cubs game in evening action Wednesday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers, Thursday at 10:05 PM ET

The Angels do have some poor overall numbers versus left-handed pitching this season. However, they do seem to have a specific edge over Martin Perez of the Rangers when facing him. The last time the Texas southpaw faced the Angels he allowed 4 earned runs on 8 hits in less than 6 innings of work earlier this season. The last time Perez pitched in Anaheim it also did not go well for him as he gave up 7 earned runs on 10 hits in 6 innings on the mound at Los Angeles last summer. The Angels have been swinging the bats quite well as yesterday marked the 9th time in their last 13 games that they've scored at least 5 runs. The Rangers certainly have been hot at the plate as well. Texas has averaged 6.6 runs per game in their last 14 games and that has led the Rangers to a 10-4 run that has them stepping into the batters box with plenty of confidence. Thursday night they'll take advantage of facing a starting pitcher whom is making just the 3rd start of his MLB career. Troy Scribner has a 4.35 ERA at the AAA level this season in the minors. In the majors he has already given up 3 homers in just 13 innings of work. It will only be a matter of time before the Rangers get to Scribner in this outing and we expect this will result in an easy over - the Rangers 7th in their last 10 games. Bet the OVER in the Los Angeles Angels game in late night west coast action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET

It will be a warm afternoon in Los Angeles with temperatures in the low 80s. The air off of the pacific can get "heavy" in night games along the west coast but a warm, dry afternoon equates to hitter-friendly conditions Sunday afternoon. Of course the Padres are certainly not known for possessing a powerhouse lineup but San Diego hammered the Dodgers Kenta Maeda when they most recently faced him. Maeda was charged with 5 earned runs in an outing in which he didn't even complete 4 innings. This afternoon will make the 4th time he has faced the Padres this season and he has a 5.93 ERA in the first 3 outings. San Diego will have Luis Perdomo toeing the rubber in this one and the Dodgers have certainly "had his number" as Los Angeles has hit him hard in each of his 3 starts against him. Those 3 outings all have occurred since July of last season and Perdomo compiled a 6.35 ERA in the 3 starts. The Dodgers enter Sunday having won 7 of their last 9 games and they've averaged scoring 5.7 runs per game during this hot streak. The Padres have hit quite well on this road trip and the over is 7-2 so for in this 10-game trip for San Diego. The over is 30-17 in Padres divisional games this season and the over is 16-9 in Dodgers home games where the total is set at 8 or 8.5 runs. Bet the OVER in the Los Angeles Dodgers game in late afternoon action Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET

Nick Tepesch gets the start for Toronto here. The former Twin was recently acquired by Toronto but had been pitching at AAA Syracuse. He is getting this start because the Jays Cesar Valdez is on the DL. In 12 appearances (10 starts) in the minors this season Tepesch has compiled a 5.88 ERA and opponents have hit .288 against him. Of course facing the potent Yankees lineup is a much tougher test than facing minor league opposition and Tepesch got rocked in his only MLB start this season. Overall, at the MLB level, Tepesch is 9-19 with a 4.69 ERA and we like taking overs in games where we expect the home team pitcher to get hit hard. That is because the home team lineup usually does their fair share of scoring no matter who they're facing and in this case it is Masahiro Tanaka toeing the rubber for the Yankees. Though he has pitched very well in his last two starts, those were both at home. Now Tanaka is on the road where he is 3-5 with a 5.89 ERA this season. The over is 7-4 in Tanaka's 11 road starts this season. The Blue Jays have scored 6.4 runs per game on average in their last 8 games. Yesterday's game stayed under the total but, previously, Toronto was on a 6-2 run to the over in their 8 prior games. The Yankees, as a road favorite in a range between -125 and -175, have gone 30-17 to the over and we look for their bats to erupt against Tepesch while the Blue Jays remain hot at the plate as well. The result should be an easy over in this one. Bet the OVER in Toronto in early evening action Wednesday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland A's, Saturday at 9:05 PM ET

The Angels turn to Tyler Skaggs for this start and the southpaw is back in the bigs for the first time since April. Skaggs had been on the disabled list and a big concern for him here is that he did not pitch that well in his rehab starts at the minor league level as he prepared for this outing. Additionally, the other concern for Skaggs here is the fact that he is winless with a 6.75 ERA in the 3 starts he has made against the A's in his career. Oakland is hitting the ball better over the past week as they've now averaged 5.3 runs per game in their last 7 games. The Athletics have had just 1 under in their last 9 games. The Angels have been hitting the ball very well as they've averaged 7.1 runs per game in going 6-1 in their last 7 games. They should have no trouble with the offerings of Oakland's Paul Blackburn in this one. The A's right-hander gave up 5 earned runs in his most recent start and, prior to that, he had more walks than strikeouts over his 4 prior starts combined. Looking at his last 4 starts Blackburn did have one strong outing at Toronto but, in the other 3 starts he compiled a 6.11 ERA. Odds are, the way the Angels are swinging the bats right now, this will be another rough outing for Blackburn. The over is 4-1 in his last 5 starts. Only 45 of Oakland's last 116 games against a left-handed starter have resulted in an under. Our mathematical computer simulation model has this one projected to get to double digits in runs scored. The A's bullpen has struggled on the road this season and the Angels have had just 1 under in their last 6 games. We expect more of the same here. Bet the OVER in the Los Angeles Angels game in late night action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets, Tuesday at 8:40 PM ET

Tough times for Steven Matz of the Mets. The New York southpaw toes the rubber in Colorado tonight and that is good news for Rockies hitters! Matz comes into this outing with a 14.18 ERA and 0-3 record in his last 4 starts! Opponents are hitting .472 off of the struggling southpaw in his last 4 appearances. The issue for the Rockies tonight won't be at the plate though. It is the fact that Jeff Hoffman gets the call for Colorado tonight and he has an 11.77 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, Hoffman is facing a Mets team that just saw him a couple weeks ago in New York. That 3 game series resulted in all 3 games going over the total as there was an average of 15 runs scored per game! We expect more fireworks at the plate tonight on a warm, dry evening in the thin air of hitter-friendly Coors Field. The ball should be carrying very well and that spells disaster for both of these struggling hurlers. The Rockies are hitting .285 (and slugging .475) against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them 2nd in the National League. The Mets come into this game having lost back to back games but having previously scored an average of 5.1 runs per game in going 7-3 in their 10 prior games. New York is an incredible 49-15 to the over in night games this season. The Rockies have scored an average of 13.4 runs per game in their last 5 match-ups with a left-handed starting pitcher! All things considered, even though this is a big total posted here, this is likely to be an absolute slug-fest in Denver. Bet the OVER in Colorado in evening action Tuesday.

TOP 10* OVER in New York Mets vs Oakland Athletics at 7:10 ET - Sure the total looks "big" on this game but that is because the situation demands it. Even though this inter-league game is being played in an NL park (so there will be no DH), both of these starting pitchers are likely to get rocked. The Mets Steven Matz simply isn't "right" as the southpaw has given up 12 earned runs in only 5 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last two starts. The Athletics Paul Blackburn shows great numbers in terms of his ERA over his first 3 starts this season. However, Blackburn had command issues in his most recent start and walked 4 batters. Also, in his prior start he did give up 8 hits while not recording a single strikeout. The point is that Blackburn shows a 1.83 ERA to the betting markets but he truly has not pitched nearly as impressively as that ERA would lead to believe. While the Mets are only 4-3 in their last 7 games they have averaged scoring 8 runs per game in those 4 victories. The A's were off yesterday but they are on a solid 4-2 run that has seen them score at least 5 runs in all 4 victories. Don't be surprised if both teams have big games at the plate here. Oakland's bullpen has a 5.68 ERA on the road this season and the Mets bullpen has an overall 4.98 ERA on the season. We look for the over to improve to 3-0 in Blackburn's last 3 starts and 3-0 in Matz's home starts on the season. Also, the over is an amazing 42-15 in Mets night games this season. The over is on a 62-43 run in Oakland's games against left-handed starters. Grab the OVER in this one in early Friday evening action.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 8:15 PM ET

Muggy evening expected in Kansas City tonight and the wind will be blowing out to left field. Last night's game saw a dozen runs scored and we expect at least that tonight as well. The Tigers are starting Matthew Boyd and the southpaw is only making this start because Daniel Norris is making a rehab start in the minors. Boyd is winless in his last 3 starts with a 7.24 ERA and a 2.27 WHIP. Also, the left-hander has found the Royals to be a personal nightmare! In his last 3 starts versus them, including 2 at Kansas City, Boyd has been rocked for 15 earned runs on 20 hits in only 7 and 1/3 innings of work. Fellow southpaw Travis Wood toes the rubber for the Royals in this one in what will be just his 2nd start of the season. In the first one Wood lasted only 4 innings and gave up 6 hits. KC is searching for a 5th starter but Wood has mostly worked out of the bullpen since the 2014 season. The big concern for the lefty here is that he is very strong against left-handed batters but right-handed hitters have pounded him and the Tigers are loaded with right-handed lumber in their lineup. In fact, Detroit has a .490 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers this season and that ranks them 1st of out all 30 MLB teams! Wood is in for a tough time against a Tigers team that has averaged 9 runs per game in their last 3 games. At the same time, Boyd faces a nemesis and that means the Royals match Detroit run for run in a slugfest in this one! Bet the OVER in the Kansas City Royals game in evening action Tuesday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER the Total - Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET

The Dodgers Alex Wood is having a phenomenal season (9-0, 1.79 ERA) and certainly not showing any signs of slowing down (1.00 ERA in his last 4 starts). Also, the southpaw has been on an amazing stretch where he has allowed 1 earned run or less in 8 of his last 9 starts! Of course that is a big part of the reason the Dodgers are a sizable favorite here and that is another reason that this post All-Star break situation is offering fantastic line value on the under. In the first 3-games of the series following the All-Star break, "under" bettors have been rewarded at the ticket windows much more than the "over" players. This can be attributed to a couple different factors including, but not limited to, rested pitching arms and the lack of timing by hitters. In the past three years if you simple bet "under" on all the games played Friday through Sunday following the break you would have cashed 62% of your wagers (77-47 Under since 2014). Had you just bet "under" on any of those games when one of the two teams involved was favored by -135 or more you improve those winning results to 66% (43-22). In 2016 the "unders" immediately following the All Star Break were especially good with a 30-12 record or 71%. The most successful situation we uncovered was betting the under in games with a line of -140 or better. That resulted in a near perfect 13-2 record last season. With Jose Urena toeing the rubber for the Marlins this evening a pitchers duel can be expected. Urena is 7-3 on the season and he has compiled a solid 2.91 ERA in his last 6 starts! The right-hander has a sparkling 0.66 ERA in his two starts versus the Dodgers in his career. As a home dog of +125 to +175 this season, the Marlins are 5-2 to the under. The Dodgers entered Friday's action with a 7-2 "under" record this season in road games where the total was set at 8 or 8.5 runs. Bet the UNDER in Miami as a Top Play in early evening action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET

The Royals offense got shut down yesterday as they lost 4 to 1. However, with a different pitching match-up today, red hot weather in an afternoon game at Dodger Stadium, and the fact that KC has had one of the hottest lineups in the league in recent weeks, you have the perfect ingredients for an OVER this afternoon in LA. Kansas City, even with yesterday's loss, is still 7-3 in their last 10 games and the Royals have averaged scoring 6.1 runs per game during this stretch. As for the Dodgers, they are 9-3 in their past 12 games and Los Angeles has averaged 5 runs per game during this hot streak. Of course this total has been set a little higher than you might expect for a game in normally pitcher-friendly LA. However, that has to do with high temperatures expected near 90 degrees today and a light breeze blowing out. Also, in afternoon games the ball does carry better at Dodger Stadium and the Royals Ian Kennedy had allowed a homer in 11 straight games before he finally had a start without allowing one in his most recent outing. Overall, Kennedy did throw 105 pitches in his last start and he may 'flame out' early in this start as a result of that high-pitch outing (by his standards) and the fact that he has given up 11 earned runs in his last 17 and 2 / 3 innings versus the Royals. Kansas City's red hot sticks will be facing the Dodgers Brandon McCarthy in his first start since coming off of the disabled list with a knee issue. Though it was a short stint on the DL for McCarthy, the fact is that he struggled badly with command of his pitches in his most recent start two weeks ago and now he faces the red hot Royals! The over is a perfect 3-0 in McCarthy's last 3 starts and 9-2 in Kennedy's last 11 starts and we are forecasting a slugfest in this one! Bet the OVER in the Los Angeles Dodgers game in early evening action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET

The Orioles lost to the Rays 6-4 yesterday in a game that barely stayed under the total. Look for a slugfest this afternoon to make up for that one falling just short. Jake Odorizzi will be toeing the rubber for the Rays and he allowed 2 homers in his most recent start and that was against the Orioles in Tampa. As for Baltimore, it is Dylan Bundy getting the call and he also allowed 2 homers in his most recent start and that was at Tropicana Field. The fact that both these starting pitchers have been serving up the long ball and now have to face the same lineups that just saw them in their most recent start, it should lead to plenty of O in this one. Odorizzi's last 5 starts have all gone over the total and he has been very hittable particularly in his road outings. Another short outing away from home for Odorizzi will ask the Rays bullpen to do too much here and of course the O's have seen plenty of the Rays relievers with the recent meetings between these clubs. As for Bundy, each of his last 4 starts have gone over the total and he has a 7.16 ERA in his last three starts. As you can see, the trending for each of these starting pitchers have been overs and facing the same lineups they just faced will not do them any favors here. Odorizzi has a 5.52 ERA in his career starts against the Orioles and Bundy has a 6.20 ERA in his career starts against the Rays! The over is 13-7 in Baltimore's day games this season and the over is 27-13 in Tampa Bay's games when they are off of a win this season. Bet the OVER in Baltimore for a Top Play in late afternoon action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER the Total - Cleveland Indians vs Texas Rangers, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET

The Rangers got the 2-1 win at Cleveland last night but struck out 16 times! Texas has been held to an average of only 7.1 hits per game in their last 10 games. The Indians had a huge night at the plate on Monday but, other than that, their bats have truly been quiet of late. Cleveland has been held to 2 runs or less 4 times in their last 5 games! In those 4 games the Indians have averaged just 6 hits. The Indians are unlikely to fare well against the Rangers Yu Darvish. The Texas right-hander has a phenomenal 2.23 ERA in his 7 road starts this season. The under is 6-1 in those games and also an amazing 12-3 this season in all of the starts Darvish has made. Look for the low-scoring trending to continue here as Trevor Bauer is likely to prove problematic for a Rangers team that is hitting a paltry .219 on the road this season. That is dead last in the majors for road batting average this season! Bauer has produced quality starts in both of his home outings versus Texas in his career. The Indians won each game and he allowed only 3 earned runs in each while also going at least 7 innings in each outing. Overall, Bauer's last 11 starts this season have produced 8 unders against only 3 overs. The under is on a 31-17 run in Rangers road games when the total is set at 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the Indians last 11 games have resulted in just 2 games that went over the total. We anticipate that trend continuing here in a game that has the makings of a pitchers duel. Bet the UNDER in the Cleveland Indians game for a Top Play in evening action Wednesday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET

The wind is blowing out at a pretty good clip for this one. Also, you've got two hurlers here who are likely to get hard. This is the perfect recipe for a slugfest and that's what we expect to see in Chicago this afternoon. Jon Gray toes the rubber for Oakland in this one and the A's right-hander has hit a bad stretch as he has given up 20 earned runs in 28 innings over his past 5 starts. Gray has been hit particularly hard on the road - 18 hits in the 10 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last two road starts. The White Sox are starting Derek Holland. The Pale Hose southpaw has been crushed for 22 earned runs in 15 and 2 / 3 innings over his last 4 starts. Holland had big trouble with the Athletics and didn't even complete 4 innings in his most recent start versus Oakland. Gray got rocked for 7 earned runs in just 3 innings in his last road start against the White Sox. The over is 9-4 in Holland's starts this season and the over is 9-1 in Gray's starts this season. The over is 20-12 in White Sox games versus teams with sub-.500 records this season and Oakland has an 8-2 over mark in the ledger in their Sunday games this season. Bet the OVER in the Chicago White Sox game for a Top Play in afternoon action Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET

Yesterday's game was a pitchers duel but don't be surprised when this game plays out in completely opposite fashion. Mild temperatures with the wind blowing out at Coors Field is what is expected tonight. Taijuan Walker toes the rubber for the Diamondbacks and he was fortunate to give up only 1 earned run in his last start here as he gave up 7 hits in 5 and 1 / 3 innings while striking out just 1. That means there was plenty of contact for the Rockies hitters in that outing and that was just last month so Colorado will be dialed in on Walker's offerings tonight. The Rockies send Jeff Hoffman to the mound for this one and, though his overall numbers look great this season, he had luck on his side in his home outings. Despite giving up 13 hits and walking 5 in 10 and 2 / 3 innings of work, Hoffman has only a 3.48 ERA at Coors Field. In his only career start against Arizona, Hoffman was pounded for 7 runs (4 earned) on 8 hits in 4 and 2 / 3 innings in September. The Dbacks have averaged 6.6 runs per game in their last dozen games so Hoffman is again likely to struggle against their lineup. The Rockies have averaged 6.2 runs per game in their last 14 games. On the season Colorado averages 6 runs per game at home and their bullpen has a 5.43 ERA in home games so, with Hoffman unlikely to go deep, that will also be an issue for the Rockies here. It all adds up to what should be an ultra easy over in this one. Bet the OVER in the Colorado Rockies game for a Top Play in evening action Wednesday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET

Yesterday's game was a pitchers duel but don't be surprised when this game plays out in completely opposite fashion. The Red Sox are sending Rick Porcello to the bump for this one. He is 3-8 with a 4.67 ERA this season and he has pitched particularly poorly of late. Porcello has given up 5 earned runs in back to back games and now has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 4 of his last 6 games. Also, the earned run totals Porcello has allowed could easily be even higher as he has been getting hit hard throughout this stretch. The veteran right-hander has allowed 66 hits in the 43 and 1 /3 innings over his last 7 starts! Porcello now faces a powerful Astros team that has a .475 slugging percentage versus right-handed pitching this season. Houston will have David Paulino toeing the rubber for this one. The right-hander has allowed 8 earned runs on 14 hits in 9 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Paulino is only 23 years old and he has never recorded a win above the AA level of the minors. He has made 6 starts at the AAA level and 3 starts in the majors and is winless in all 9 starts. The Red Sox are off of rare back to back low-scoring games. Their potent lineup had produced an average of 6 runs per game and 13 hits per game in leading the team to a 5-1 mark in their 6 games prior to the two pitchers duels. We look for Boston to pound Paulino and with Porcello also consistently getting hit hard, this one has the makings of a true slug-fest! Bet the OVER in the Houston Astros game for a Top Play in evening action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET

Each of these starting pitchers has given up 18 homers already this season. The Angels Ricky Nolasco has given up 20 hits (including 5 homers) in his last 3 starts and these outings have totaled only 14 and 1 / 3 innings so, as you can see, he's been getting roughed up. As for the Astros Michael Fiers, he has a 5.40 ERA in his last 3 home starts and the Angels hit two homers off of him when they saw him a month ago. In that outing versus LA, Fiers walked 4 while striking out just 1. Nolasco also allowed 2 homers in his most recent start versus the Astros and, overall, gave up 8 hits in 6 innings. Houston should stay hot at the plate here. The over is 8-2-2 in their last 12 games with the Astros scoring an average of 8 runs per game in those dozen games! The Angels are heating up again at the plate as well and have scored 5 runs or more in 5 of their last 7 games. Los Angeles has scored 20 runs and pounded out 28 hits in their last two games. Only 2 of Fiers last 10 starts have resulted in an under and we're forecasting a slugfest at Minute Maid Park this afternoon. The over is 10-6 in Houston's day games this season and also 10-6 when the Astros are off of a loss. Bet the OVER in the Houston Astros game in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over the Total – San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET

R.A. Dickey toes the rubber for the Braves Sunday afternoon and he hasn’t recorded a win since May 2. He has gone 0-1 with three no-decisions in his last four starts. The knuckleballer hasn’t been particularly impressive in these outings as he has compiled a 4.44 ERA in these 4 starts. We expect that weather could be an issue for Dickey Sunday afternoon at AT & T Park. Studies have shown that the knuckleballer tends to fare better when there is a little breeze behind him rather than what he’ll be facing Sunday. The wind will be blowing out at AT & T Park Sunday and throwing into that wind tends to create issues for a knuckleball pitcher. Also, the ball carries better in San Francisco in day games so don’t be surprised when both starting pitchers run into some issues in this afternoon match-up with the wind aiding the hitters. The Giants Johnny Cueto is on the bump for this one as he is insistent on working through an injury issue. He’s got blisters on both his index finger and middle finger of his throwing hand but he continues to insist upon pitching through it. Cueto has given up 9 earned runs in his last 12 innings on the mound and he allowed 3 homers to the Cubs in Chicago in his most recent start. The last time Cueto faced the Braves he allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings at Atlanta. The Braves have a number of hitters who have enjoyed success against him and Atlanta is loaded with confidence right now. That’s because the Braves, entered Saturday’s action having won 8 of their last 12 games and averaged 5.3 runs per game during this hot streak. Even though Friday’s game was a pitchers duel the over through Friday’s action is 17-9 in Braves games against teams with a losing record this season. Bet Over the total in the San Francisco Giants game in late afternoon action Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET

The last time Michael Fiers hosted Detroit was last April and he was rocked for 3 homers in that outing. That doesn't bode well in terms of what to expect from Fiers tonight as he has given up 17 homers in his 8 starts so far this season. The Astros right-hander is facing a Tigers team that got some key hits in last night's 6-3 win and the over is now 13-8 in Detroit's road games this season. The Tigers are scheduled to have Justin Verlander toeing the rubber at Minute Maid Park this evening. Of course Verlander has put up some exceptional numbers at times throughout his career but he certainly hasn't been at his best for much of this season and that has been particularly true on the road. The Detroit right-hander has produced a 7.24 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in his five road starts this season and 4 of the 5 went over the total. Verlander allowed 2 homers in his most recent start at Houston and that was last April, the day before Fiers got blasted for 3 homers by the Tigers! Houston has 38 homers in their 26 home games this season. The Tigers are averaging 5 runs per game versus right-handed starters this season. The bats of both clubs have not produced a lot of hits so far in this series but the power is there and with Verlander's road struggles this season coupled with Fiers' struggles in terms of allowing the "long ball" we have this match-up pegged for a true slug-fest. When off of a loss this season the Astros are 8-5-1 to the over. Both of Fiers home starts hosting the Tigers the past two seasons went over the total and the set up is perfect for 3-0 here as the Astros lineup bounces back off of a loss while Fiers' struggles on the bump continue. Bet the OVER in the Houston Astros game in evening action Thursday.

TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 8.5 in Seattle @ 10:10 ET - Mike Pelfrey remains winless on the season and things appear to be getting worse rather than better for the veteran righthander. Pelfrey has a 6.13 ERA in his last three starts and he has given up 3 homers in his last two outings.  Pelfrey faced the Mariners one time last season and the results were not good as he got rocked for 6 earned runs on 12 hits (2 of them leaving the yard) in an outing that lasted only 5 innings.  The Mariners have Yovani Gallardo toeing the rubber tonight in Seattle and he has decent numbers in his last 3 starts but walks and homers were an issue and plus he faced a bad Phillies team and the Rangers and A's (both clubs hitting only .236 on the season).  While the White Sox bats do not have impressive numbers on the season, they had picked things up at the plate recently - at least prior to yesterday's 2-1 win.  The Pale Hose had averaged 5.5 runs per game in their 8 games before yesterday's low-scoring win.  The over is 9-4 this season in Seattle's home games that have had a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs.  There also is significance in the fact that last night's game between these teams stayed under the total.  The White Sox have not had back to back unders since the first 3 days of this month.  The Mariners have not recorded back to back unders since late April.  Look for the bats from both clubs to respond tonight after last night's pitchers duel.  Bet the OVER in Seattle Saturday night!

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Oakland A's vs Boston Red Sox, Thursday at 10:05 PM ET

This total has dropped to an 8 after opening up at a 9 yesterday afternoon when lines first came up. The value is definitely there for an over play as the Red Sox have gone over the total in 5 straight games and 9 of their last 10. Boston has scored an average of 6.6 runs per game during this 10-game stretch and should stay hot at the plate against the A's Jon Gray tonight. The Oakland righty gave up 7 earned runs in under 4 innings of work when he faced the Red Sox last season. Not only that, his current form this season is a little questionable so far as his strikeout rate has not impressed. Gray has only 5 strikeouts in his last 2 starts and he was hit hard in his lone home start this season as he gave up 7 hits in under 5 innings of work. That outing followed a rough season debut where he gave up 3 homers. Facing a tough Red Sox lineup won't help matters for Gray. What the markets may be latching onto today (in terms of the downward move in this total) is the fact that the Boston starter, Hector Velazquez has a 1.55 ERA in his five AAA starts this season but this is his MLB debut and the last time he faced MLB hitters it did not go well! In spring training this year, Velazquez went 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in 5 games (including 2 starts). Now the 28 year old right-hander (who has spent his entire career prior to this year in the Mexican League) is on the road facing an A's team that averaged 4.8 runs per game in their last 10 games before getting shutout at Seattle last night. The Athletics will be ready to bounce back after the shutout loss and the over is 10-2 this season in Oakland's games against teams with a winning record. All 3 of Gray's starts this season have gone over the total and we see every reason to believe that O/U record will be a perfect 4-0 after tonight's game is in the books! Bet the OVER in the Oakland A's game in late night west coast action Thursday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 10:15 PM ET

The Giants are back home with some much needed momentum after rallying for a 6-5 win over the Mets yesterday. Even though that game was in New York it was an early afternoon start and traveling East to West is of course much easier as you gain 3 hours back. With that said, we have no hesitation about expecting another solid game from the Giants lineup tonight. San Francisco just faced Bronson Arroyo in his most recent start and so they'll be getting another look at him and this time catch him at home where they pounded him for two homers the last time they faced him. Arroyo has an 11.25 ERA on the road this season and the over is 5-1 in all of his starts this season. The Giants are slated to have Ty Blach toeing the rubber this evening and he got absolutely crushed by the Reds in his most recent start. They knocked him around for 10 runs (8 earned) in only 3 innings. The Reds lineup hasn't really cooled off either. Cincinnati has gone 6-1 in their last 7 games and they have averaged 7.3 runs per game during this strong stretch. Cincinnati has pounded out 81 hits in these 7 games and the San Francisco bullpen has a losing record with a 4.43 ERA this season. The Giants have recorded only 2 unders in their past 9 games while the Reds have played 11 road games this season with only 2 unders resulting! Even though it will be a cool evening by the Bay the wind will be blowing out to dead center and these two lineups are likely to produce plenty in this one. Bet the OVER in the San Francisco Giants game late Thursday night.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET

The Blue Jays sticks got off to a slow start this season but with yesterday's 8-4 win Toronto's games are now on an 8-2 run to the over their last 10. In this span, the red hot Jays lineup has averaged 5.1 runs per game and they are now catching Jake Odorizzi in just his 2nd start after coming off of the disabled list. The Blue Jays lineup will be getting their 4th shot at Odorizzi since August and the consistent repetition against a hurler tends to favor the hitters. Odorizzi has been solid versus the Jays but certainly not dominant as he has compiled a 3.92 ERA in those 3 outings. The Rays lineup should give him plenty of run support here as they're facing a starting pitcher whom they've enjoyed solid success against. As strong as Marco Estrada's overall numbers are, Tampa Bay has been a nemesis for him. Estrada has had 3 straight losses in starts versus the Rays and it certainly has not been a situation of fluke defeats. The Toronto right-hander has been rocked for 13 earned runs in 15 and 1/3 innings spanning the 3 starts and he gave up 3 homers in his most recent outing which was at Tampa Bay. The Rays are averaging 5 runs per game at home this season and we will take advantage of a low posted total here because both lineups are likely to enjoy success this afternoon down in Tampa. We're backing the over here and expecting the over to improve to 8-4 in Rays day games this season. Bet the OVER in the Tampa Bay Rays game Saturday afternoon.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves, Wednesday at 7:35 PM ET

The Mets bullpen has a 4.99 ERA this season and New York's relievers have allowed opponents to hit .285 against them which has the Mets pen ranked dead last in the majors. That's trouble for New York tonight because even though Jacob deGrom has piled up strikeouts this season he's on the road where he's given up 4 homers already in 3 starts this season. As strong as deGrom has been at home, he's known for struggles away from home as he was 2-5 on the road last season and opponents hit .312 against him! He's facing a Braves lineup that has produced an average of 7.6 runs per game in their last 7 games and the over has gone 6-1 during this hot streak. Atlanta will need plenty of runs tonight because the Mets should pound Bartolo Colon. The veteran has certainly shown his age in his last two starts as Colon has been rocked for 10 ER on 21 H in 12 IP. The Mets have scored at least 5 runs at the plate in each of their last 6 games and they've averaged 6 runs per game during this stretch. The over is a sparkling 14-3-2 in the Mets last 19 games! The past week New York's run production has increased substantially and we don't expect Colon (or a Braves bullpen that has a 4.89 ERA) to be able to stop the Mets lineup. The Mets are 10-1 to the over this season in games against teams with a losing record. We expect another high-scoring wild game just like the past 4 match-ups (50 runs scored). Bet the OVER in the Atlanta Braves game Wednesday evening.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET

These teams combined for 18 runs in a wild game last night as the Brewers twice blew 4 run leads (were up 4-0 and 8-4) in the eventual 10-8 loss. We don't expect either team to stop scoring big runs here as the pitching match-up lends itself to another slug-fest. Although Braves southpaw Jaime Garcia has pitched respectably well early this season, he has a 4.76 ERA on the road and his trend in recent seasons is that he gets hit harder on the road than at home. Last season Garcia got hit at a .292 clip on the road and had a 4.98 ERA in his night games. The prior season (2015) Garcia got hit 46 points higher on the road compared to at home. We could go on and on with listing the season by season numbers but, in summary, the point is that the left-hander struggles more in road starts and in night games. The bad news for Garcia here is that the Brewers have been red hot at the plate and they have pounded lefties this season. The Brewers are hitting .305 this season with a .583 slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching this season. Milwaukee has scored 37 runs in their last 4 games! The Braves have scored 25 runs in their last 3 games and should have no trouble with hitting Jimmy Nelson. The Brewers right-hander walked 6 in his most recent start and in the outing prior to that he got hit hard and was charged with 7 earned runs! Each of these starts saw him get knocked out in the 6th inning and we doubt he'll even make it that far in this one as all the walks in his last outing show he's regressing again and picking up some of his old habits (walks have been an issue for him in the past). With Nelson struggling and with Garcia having allowed 5 earned runs in under 4 innings on the bump when he last faced the Brewers (September), this one should easily fly over the total. Bet the OVER in the Milwaukee Brewers game Saturday evening.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds, Saturday at 1:10 PM ET

Very warm afternoon weather in Cincinnati today with the wind blowing out to left at Great American Ball Park. That is not good news for either starting pitcher in this match-up. The Reds Brandon Finnegan was staked to a big 5-0 lead Monday but couldn't even make it past two innings as he walked 5 and allowed 4 hits in a start lasting only 2 frames. Finnegan is now up against a Brewers lineup that is starting to heat up. Not only did Milwaukee score 10 runs yesterday, it also marked the 3rd time in 4 games that the Brewers have reached double digits in hits. Additionally, Milwaukee ranks 4th out of the 30 MLB teams with their .271 batting average against left-handed pitching. That includes 10 extra base hits in 96 at bats versus lefties this season and, with the wind blowing out toward left, Finnegan will struggle with the confident Brewers at the plate. Having won 4 straight games, Milwaukee possesses a very confident lineup. The Reds should feast on the offerings of Zach Davies here. The Brewers righty has been 'off' early this season as he has allowed at least 5 earned runs in each start and didn't make it past the 5th inning in either start. Both of those outings were at home and now Davies is on the road where opponents hit .290 against him last season! The Reds are on a 92-64 'over' run in home games and have gone 19-9 to the over when off of a game where they gave up 10 runs or more. After yesterday's 10-4 beatdown at the hands of the Brewers, look for another wild one on a 'hitter-friendly' afternoon Saturday. With yesterday's game flying over the total, the Brewers are now 18-10 to the over when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Bet the OVER in Cincinnati early Saturday afternoon!

ASA Tuesday MLB Top 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners @ 10:05 ET: Seattle will be facing the Angels Alex Meyer and the 6'9 right-hander has struggled in his limited big league appearances to date. This truly should not come as a big surprise as Meyer compiled a 4.79 ERA and was hammered with a .281 batting average against at the AAA level in the minor leagues last year. Meyer also has not built up a lot of stamina yet for pitching deep at the MLB level and this should help our cause here as the Angels bullpen has been getting extra work over the past week plus with many extended efforts due to short outings from the starters. Meyer only lasted 3 and 1 / 3 innings in his start last week and has already given up 11 walks and 13 hits (including 3 homers) in his 9 and 1 / 3 innings at the MLB level. Facing the red hot lineup of the Mariners is a tough draw for the big righty as Seattle has surged back into the Wild Card race thanks to 6 straight wins! The M's have won 8 of their last 11 games with production at the plate leading the way. The Mariners have averaged 7 runs per game in their last 11 games. Also, Seattle has averaged 11 hits per game in their last 13 games. The Mariners won't be the only lineup pounding out hits tonight. This is not a good match-up for Seattle's Taijuan Walker as no matter how much he wants payback for his ugly start against the Angels last week, it has been proven they are a "match-up issue" for him. In his last two starts against Los Angeles (both within the last 6 weeks), Walker has been rocked for 12 runs (11 earned) in only 4 and 2 / 3 innings of work while giving up 4 homers and only striking out 1 batter. Will the third time against the Angels be "the charm" for Walker? It is highly unlikely when you take a look at the other 4 starts he has made since July 1st that were not against the Angels. Walker has given up 15 earned runs in 22 innings over those four other starts. He just doesn't "have it" right now and the Angels rank 7th out of 30 MLB teams with a .263 batting average against righties this season. The Mariners are right in front of LA at the #6 spot with a .264 batting average versus right-handers this year. As you can see, we have every reason to expect a high-scoring game to erupt in Anaheim tonight. The over is 13-6 this season in games where Seattle is on the road and priced between -100 and -125. Bet the OVER!

ASA Saturday TOP 10* MLB Total of the Year: OVER 9.5 in Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Indians @ 8 ET: The Indians hammered the Rangers, including their AL-worst bullpen, in yesterday's 12-1 blowout win. Yes, despite having the best record in the American League, Texas has the highest bullpen ERA of any team in the AL. How do they win so many games then? It's about clutch hitting and solid starting pitching for the Rangers. The concern for Texas today is that they certainly are unlikely to get solid starting pitching here. AJ Griffin gets the start for the Rangers and he has been getting hit hard for two months straight now. Dating back to early July Griffin has been hammered to the tune of 57 hits in 47 and 1/3 innings. The Texas right-hander has a 6.44 ERA over his last 8 starts. The over is 5-1 in Griffin's home starts this season. Carlos Carrasco will be toeing the rubber for the Indians this evening at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Even though he is off of a strong start that came at Oakland and the A's have been one of the weakest lineups in baseball this season. Note that in his last visit to Texas, Carrasco was rocked for 5 earned runs. Also, in his 5 starts prior to the strong start against the Athletics, the Indians right-hander had compiled a 6.23 ERA as he allowed at least 3 earned runs in every single start and also allowed at least one home run in each of the 5 starts. The over is 12-4-2 in the last 18 games between these clubs as this continues to be a very high-scoring series. The over is 7-3 this season when Texas is off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. Also, the over is 22-13 this season in Rangers home games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs. We're grabbing the OVER in Texas as our MLB Total of the Year going Saturday evening. Best of luck, ASA.

ASA Saturday MLB TOP 10* OVER 9 / 9.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros @ 7 ET: There were 9 homers hit in yesterday's game and we are expecting another slug-fest in Baltimore Saturday evening. The Astros have now won 5 of their last 8 road games and Houston has averaged 7.6 runs per game in these 8 contests away from home. The Orioles have reached double digits in hits in 5 of their last 8 games and have averaged 6.1 runs per game in these 8 games. Baltimore will have Chris Tillman on the mound and, though he has pitched well this season, he is currently having some issues with his shoulder. Tillman enters this start having allowed a homer in each of his last 3 starts. In his start prior to these 3 (and also his most recent home start) Tillman was rocked for 6 earned runs in an outing in which he only lasted 5 innings. The way the ball is flying right now at Camden Yards it is likely to be a tough evening for him as well as the Astros Mike Fiers. The over is 8-2 in Fiers 10 road starts this season and he has a 6.40 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in those 10 outings. The Astros right-hander comes into this start having allowed 5 homers in his last two starts. In Astros road games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs, the over is on a 26-11 run! The over is 27-18 in Orioles games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs this season. 5 of the O's last 6 games have gone over the total and 5 straight Astros games have gone over the total. Both bullpens also had extra work in yesterday's slug-fest and that further strengthens this play tonight. We'll grab the over in Baltimore for a TOP 10* Saturday!

10* TOP OVER 8.5 or 9 in NY Yankees vs Baltimore @ 7:05 ET - After opening up a 9.5 this line has dropped down to not only a 9 but even quite a few books are now showing with 8.5 as of Noon ET. This line move is offering fantastic value for the over. The Yankees will have Michael Pineda toeing the rubber this evening and he has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Pineda gave up 3 homers in his most recent start and his recent history against the Orioles does not bode well for today. In his last 3 starts versus Baltimore, the Yankees right-hander has given up 13 earned runs on 21 hits in the 14 innings over these three outings. The O's pitching outlook for today is no better as they have Yovani Gallardo getting the start. He has a 2.21 WHIP in his last 3 starts as both walks and too many hits allowed have had him trying to constantly pitch out of jams. Gallardo has a 7.39 ERA in his 6 road starts this season. He has a 5.60 ERA and has allowed 3 homers in his 3 career starts against the Yankees. Gallardo's most recent road start stayed under (despite him struggling as usual) but 4 of his 5 prior road starts resulted in an over. As a road dog in a range of +125 to +175 this season, the over has gone 10-4 in Baltimore games. We expect another "wild one" here with Gallardo on the mound on the road and the O's as a big dog. The over is 24-14 in Orioles games against teams with a winning record this season. We'll grab the over in the NY Yankees game in evening action Wednesday for a TOP play.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 8 (or 8.5) runs in Arizona vs San Francisco @ 9:40 ET Friday - The Giants are off of a big 12-6 win at Oakland last night. The over is now 7-2-1 in San Francisco's last 10 games. Arizona was off yesterday but lost 9-8 to the Phillies the prior day. That was the Diamondbacks 5th over in their last 7 games. The Dbacks have averaged 12.6 hits per game during this hot streak at the plate while San Fran comes into this game having averaged 12.1 hits and 6.9 runs per game in their last 10 games. The over is 5-1 this season in Arizona games when they were off the prior day. The Diamondbacks are facing Johnny Cueto who has great numbers this season for the Giants but gave up 6 earned runs in 6 innings in his most recent start. The Giants right-hander has fared well in his two starts against the Dbacks this season but certainly has not been unhittable. In fact, he's given up 16 hits in 14 innings versus Arizona this season. Toeing the rubber for the Diamondbacks is Shelby Miller and he is winless in his 6 home starts this season. Overall on the season Miller has compiled a 6.79 ERA and he has been hit very hard in 4 of his last 5 starts. Miller has faced the Giants twice this season and he has given up 8 hits and 7 walks in less than 8 innings of work. He's been in and out of trouble throughout those two starts against San Francisco and we expect him to remain in trouble throughout this outing tonight against a red hot Giants lineup. As a road fave in a range of -150 to -175, San Francisco is on a 53-28 run to the over. We'll take the OVER in Arizona for a TOP PLAY Friday night.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 8.5 runs in San Diego vs Baltimore @ 10:10 ET Tuesday - Both starting pitchers in tonight's match-up are having rough seasons. We are getting line value here because the game is being played in a pitcher-friendly venue in San Diego. The fact is that the Padres are 23-16 to the over at home this season but Petco Field, of course, is still "graded" as a pitcher-friendly park. That is why two struggling pitchers can match-up and yet a total of only 8.5 is offered on the game. Ubaldo Jimenez gets the start for the Orioles and he is 4-7 with a 6.55 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP year to date. Erik Johnson gets the start for the Padres and he is 0-5 with an 8.54 ERA and a 1.90 WHIP this season. Jimenez has particularly struggled on the road this season where he is 0-5 with a 10.12 ERA while Johnson has struggled seemingly no matter where he is throwing and who he is facing, as you can see from those numbers. Neither team was in action yesterday and the over is 5-2 in San Diego games this season when they were off the prior day. The over is 10-5 this season when Baltimore enters a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more and the Orioles enter this series on a 5-game winning streak. The Padres are off of back to back 3-0 games (one a win, one a loss) but they previously had gone 8-1 to the over in their 9 prior games. The lone under during that stretch was when these pitchers squared off in Baltimore last week. That was a 7-2 final though and now each lineup is getting a quick second look at a pitcher they just faced less than a week ago. We expect this game to reach double digits in runs as the hitters hold the upper hand in the rematch. We expect the Padres to add another over to their 5-1 mark to the over in inter-league action thus far this season. We'll take the OVER in San Diego for a TOP PLAY on Tuesday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 11 or 11.5 runs in Colorado vs Arizona @ 8:40 ET Friday - The Rockies faced the Diamondbacks in early May and got to Archie Bradley for 4 earned runs in his 6 innings on the mound. Now that they are getting 2nd look at him and it is with favorable weather conditions for the batters at hitter-friendly Coors Field, we expect Colorado to hit Bradley much harder in the rematch. The Dbacks right-hander is off of a strong start but that came against struggling Philadelphia. In his two prior starts Bradley gave up a combined 5 home runs! Colorado will have Tyler Anderson toeing the rubber tonight and the southpaw will be facing an Arizona team that is the #1 slugging team in the league against left-handed pitching this season with a .488 slugging percentage so far this year. Anderson has been successful in the two starts he has made this season but the left-hander has yet to face a lineup that has pounded lefties like the Diamondbacks have this season. With yesterday's 7-6 loss, Rockies games have recorded 3 straight overs. The over is 11-6 in Colorado home games with a total set at 11 or 11.5 runs this season. The over is 19-11 this season in Arizona's games against teams with a losing record. With two unproven hurlers on the mound, and the Rockies bullpen struggling at home all season long, we expect another Coors Field slug-fest tonight. We'll take the OVER in Colorado for a TOP PLAY on Friday.

ASA TOP PLAY (IL Total of the Year) ON 10* UNDER 8.5 runs in Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds @ 4:10 ET Saturday - The Astros Dallas Keuchel has had a rough start to this season but he's still had a number of solid outings at home (where he dominated last season) and he also got burned in his last start when poor play on defense let the wheels come off of in a big inning that never should have happened. We expect the tough southpaw, who threw very well in his most recent start, to completely shut down a Reds team that has no experience against him. Keuchel has made 5 starts at home this season and 3 of those were quality starts where he pitched 6 innings of more and allowed 3 runs or less. Last season the Astros ace left-hander went 15-0 with a 1.46 ERA in his 18 home starts. Cincinnati has struggled against left-handed starters this season as they have averaged scoring only 3.8 runs per game in those match-ups. They will be fortunate to score anything today off Keuchel as he resumes his home dominance. The Astros hitters will also be facing a southpaw hurler today and that's bad news for Houston as they have hit just .233 this season against left-hand pitching. That ranks them near the bottom of the league as only the Orioles have fared worse than Houston in the AL when it comes to batting average versus lefties. We look for the Astros to struggle against a big left-hander that will be making his MLB debut today. The 6-5/225 southpaw Cody Reed has been toiling in the minors thus far but it was for strategic reasons that the Reds were holding off until mid-June to bring him up. Reed has absolutely been ready and Cincy is excited for him to make his debut today. He had a solid spring training with the Reds and at AAA Louisville with a 6-3 record and 3.20 ERA. Reed has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning and he has also done a great job of keeping the ball down in the zone as he's recorded nearly twice as many ground ball outs as outs through the air. The Astros are known for being free-swingers and they are also known for struggling against lefties. As a result, look for Reed to keep Houston off-balance throughout this game and that turns this game into a pitchers' duel with Keuchel. The under is a perfect 9-0 in Houston's last 9 games. The under is also a perfect 4-0 in Keuchel's last 4 starts. We'll gladly test the double perfect angles we have for this game. We'll grab the UNDER for a Top Play (IL Total of the Year) in the Houston Astros game Saturday afternoon.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 8 runs in Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners @ 7:10 ET Wednesday - The Mariners Nate Karns has been struggling with his command (5 walks in each of his last two starts) and now makes his first ever start against his former team. Facing the Rays will likely put even more pressure on Karns and that could result in even more issues with control. Karns gave up 7 earned runs in just 4 innings in his most recent road start. Tampa Bay will have Drew Smyly toeing the rubber at Tropicana Field this evening. The Rays southpaw is also struggling. Smyly is winless in his last 3 starts while compiling a 10.20 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in these three outings. In Smyly's two most recent starts against the Mariners, the lefty has given up 9 earned runs on 16 hits in a total of 9 innings on the mound. The Mariners scored 7 runs in yesterday's loss at Tampa and the over is now 14-5-1 in Seattle's last 20 games. The over is 20-13 in Seattle's games against teams with a losing record so far this season. The Rays and M's will be playing their 5th match-up so far this season and none of the first four have stayed under the total. The Rays have won 8 of their last 10 games and averaged 5 runs per game during this strong stretch. Based on tonight's pitching match-up, a result tonight similar to last night's 8-7 battle is what we're forecasting here. We'll grab the OVER for a Top Play in the Tampa Bay Rays game Wednesday evening.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 9 runs in Baltimore vs Kansas City @ 7 ET Monday - No one will be happier to see Orioles uniforms than the Royals. Kansas City had been red hot and scoring runs like crazy before they ran into the tough pitching of the Indians vaunted starting rotation. After four straight losses and being held to 1 run or less in three straight games, the Royals are likely to resume their hot hitting tonight based on facing a struggling Orioles hurler. Before struggling at the plate in their three most recent games, KC had averaged 11.8 hits per game in their last 10 games and, talk about consistency, the Royals reached double digits in hits in every single game. Also, Kansas City averaged 6.8 runs per game during this hot stretch at the plate and they now face Mike Wright who is returning from the minors for this outing. Wright is winless in his 3 most recent starts at the MLB level and he compiled a 7.81 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP in these outings. The over is 6-2 in his MLB starts this season. The Royals will have Danny Duffy toeing the rubber this evening and the KC southpaw has seen each of his last two starts result in overs as Duffy has allowed 3 homers in these outings. Also noteworthy about tonight's game is the fact that Wright allowed FOUR homers in his most recent start. Duffy has produced solid numbers in his career starts against the Orioles but Baltimore comes into this game having won 4 of their last 5 games and has averaged scoring 8 runs per game in these contests. The O's are hot and have plenty of confidence at the plate. The over is 8-4 in their games against left-handed starters this season and 13-5 in Baltimore's games against teams with a winning record this year. We'll take the OVER in Baltimore for a TOP PLAY Monday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 9 runs in Texas vs Seattle @ 9:10 ET Saturday - With yesterday's game going over the total, Seattle is now on a 100% perfect 10-0 run of overs! The Mariners have averaged 11.5 hits per game in their last dozen games and they have a number of dangerous hitters in their lineup enjoying solid success in their career appearances against the Rangers Martin Perez. The Texas southpaw has given up 7 walks and 3 homers in his last two starts against Seattle. Perez enjoyed some success against the Mariners in his only appearance against them earlier this season but he now gives them a second look. Prior to the successful outing against the M's earlier this season, Perez gave up 14 hits in 11 innings in his prior two outings versus Seattle. Nate Karns gets the start for the M's and he has enjoyed some success against Texas in his career but he's been more and more hittable in his recent outings leading into this start. Karns has given up 17 hits in his last 3 starts even though he averaged only 5.5 innings per start. The over went 3-0 in those 3 starts for Karns and the over is 4-1 in Mariners road games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The over is 13-7 in Rangers home games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs this season. Also, with yesterday's over, the over is now 12-6 this season in Texas' games against teams with a winning record. A lot of potent bats (and red hot bats) in this match-up Saturday should lead to another over...the 11th in a row for Seattle! We'll take the OVER in Texas Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 7.5 runs in San Diego vs Seattle @ 9:10 ET Thursday - Just when you thought the match-ups between these clubs couldn't get any crazier - 20 runs Tuesday - they again combined for 20 runs Wednesday. The Padres did most of the damage yesterday after the Mariners did most of the damage the day before. We expect both teams to continue crushing the ball Thursday night. Seattle's games have gone over the total in 8 straight games and the M's are averaging 11.5 hits per game during this potent stretch of work at the plate. The Padres have gone over the total in 6 straight games and the typically light-hitting San Diego lineup has had at least 9 hits in 7 of their last 9 games. Facing Wade Miley during a time in which he is struggling should help San Diego to stay hot at the dish. The Mariners southpaw has an 8.10 ERA in his last two starts and has given up 4 homers in these two outings. The Padres will counter with Colin Rea. The right-hander will be toeing the rubber tonight after a short stint in the minors. Rea's most recent MLB starts have seen him go winless in 3 mid-May starts while producing a 6.00 ERA. The over is 4-1 in Rea's home starts this season and 6-3 in all of Miley's starts this season. Considering the combined 14-0 over run that these teams are on, we raise this play to a Top level status. We'll grab the OVER in the San Diego Padres game Thursday for a TOP PLAY.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 10.5 Runs - San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies, Friday at 8:40 PM ET - The Rockies are happy to be back home where they are hitting around .300 on the season. They got "warmed up" for this homestand by exploding for 8 runs in last night's game at Boston after previously struggling to score runs on the road trip. The advantage they have tonight is facing a hurler who has been struggling on the road this season and whom they have enjoyed recent success against. Matt Cain gets the ball for the Giants and he is 0-2 with a 6.62 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. Also, this will already be the third time this season that he's facing the Rockies and even though one of the first two starts was at pitcher-friendly San Francisco, his results against Colorado have not been good. Cain gave up 6 earned runs in each of the two starts against the Rockies. He also allowed a total of 3 homers in the 2 outings and he did not record a single strikeout in the 2nd outing. He was not able to get out of the 5th inning in either start. As you can, the Giants will have to score a lot of runs to keep up with Colorado in this one and they should be able to do so! San Francisco will face a hurler who has struggled at Coors Field. Tyler Chatwood will be toeing the rubber in Denver tonight. The Rockies right-hander has been fantastic on the road this season but, like most pitchers, he has struggled at Coors Field. Chatwood is 1-3 with a 6.65 ERA in his home outings this season. He also has been rocked by the Giants in recent starts and they did already face him at Coors Field last month. In his last three starts against the G-men, Chatwood has given up 14 earned runs in 18 innings of work. San Fran has pounded him for 6 homers in those 3 starts. The over has gone 5-2 in Giants Friday games this season and 4-2 in Rockies home games where they are a small favorite of up to -125. We are forecasting another solid over right here and the situation is a strong one which elevates this play to a TOP PLAY rating. Take the OVER in Colorado Friday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 8 Runs - Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners, Wednesday at 10:10 PM ET - Zach Neal makes his first-ever MLB start for the A's on Wednesday night. He got his first taste of the bigs two weeks ago when he pitched some middle-inning relief in a game that was a blowout loss at Boston. Neal gave up 3 earned runs in 3 innings in that stint and this is a pitcher whose minor league numbers at the AAA level were not impressive until this season. We are not "sold" on Neal just yet and certainly expect him to struggle in his first ever MLB start as it comes on the road against a Mariners club that has scored at least 5 runs in 13 of their last 20 games. Yesterday's M's win was their 6th in their last 8 games and Seattle has averaged nearly 7 runs per game in the 6 victories. They should get to the rookie Neal early and often in this game. The key to the over is that Oakland faces a "fading" Hisashi Iwakuma. The Mariners right had a solid start against the A's about three weeks ago but, since then, he has given up 10 earned runs on 22 hits in 17 innings over his last 3 starts. With Oakland having already seen Iwakuma in September AND October of last season plus facing him again in early May and now late May as well, familiarity with his repertoire of pitches should lead to some success at the plate tonight. The over is 15-9 in A's road games this season and 17-9 when they are off of a loss. The Athletics have a history of overs on "get away days" and that is part of what has led to a 36-19 "over" run in Wednesday games. We are forecasting another right here and the situation is a strong one which elevates this play to a TOP PLAY rating. Take the OVER in Seattle Wednesday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 8.5 Runs - Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - This absolutely has the makings of a pitchers' duel. Tyler Duffey has been phenomenal for the Twins so far this season and he should have another fantastic outing here. The problem for him (and for Minnesota fans) is that the Twins simply can't hit! Minnesota is hitting only .234 this season as a team and the Twins are averaging only 3.4 runs per game in their home games this year. The Minnesota bullpen has a 2.62 ERA in home games this season and the Blue Jays bullpen has a 3.00 ERA in road games this season. Each of Duffey's last 3 starts have stayed under the total and he has a 1.85 ERA on the season. Aaron Sanchez will be toeing the rubber for Toronto tonight and 6 of his 8 starts this season have stayed under the total. Sanchez has made 5 road starts this season and the Blue Jays right-hander has a 2.34 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in those outings. In road games this season Toronto is hitting only .229 entering Friday's action. The Blue Jays have been held to 3 runs or less in 7 of their last 12 games while the Twins have been held to 3 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 games. Struggles at the plate, solid bullpens, strong starting pitchers...it all adds up to great line value on the under in this series opener Friday. The line move from a total of an 8 to now an 8.5 has added even more value where the value truly was already off of the charts in this one! Take the UNDER in Minnesota for a TOP PLAY Friday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 7 Runs - Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:15 PM ET - We will play OVER in the Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals game. The Red Sox lineup is filled with confidence right now. Boston just completed a 7 game homestand where they won 6 of the 7 games and averaged a ridiculous 10.4 runs per game! It was not a fluke as Boston reached double digits in hits in all 7 games and, in fact, had 14 or more hits in 6 of the 7 games. As you would expect with these types of numbers, all 7 games went over the total. The Royals Yordano Ventura is unlikely to slow down the BoSox hittters. Ventura has an 8.36 ERA in his last 3 starts and he has walked 14 while striking out only 5 in 16 innings his past three starts. The Royals right-hander is 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in his three career starts against the Red Sox. Boston will have Rick Porcello toeing the rubber tonight. Although Porcello has an impressive record so far this season, the magic may be starting to fade as he has allowed 3 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Porcello has not fared well in recent visits to Kauffman Stadium either as the Red Sox right-hander has given up 10 earned runs in 8 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts at Kansas City. 6 of the last 7 meetings in Kansas City between these clubs have gone over the total. The Royals sticks got off to a slow start this season but they've averaged 9.5 hits per game in their last 8 games and they match up well with Porcello while the Boston lumber also remains red hot in this match-up. Take advantage of the low total. Take the OVER!

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 9 Runs - Oakland Athletics @ Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET - We will play OVER in the Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox game. Rick Porcello has put up some impressive numbers for the Red Sox early this season and that is what is helping to drive the downward move on this total as it has gone from a 9.5 to a 9. The result is even better value for the over in this match-up because Porcello will be facing an A's lineup that has averaged 5.5 runs per game in their last 6 games and that also averaged 11 hits per game during this stretch. The last time Porcello faced Oakland was exactly a year ago to the day and he allowed 9 hits in his 5 innings on the mound. This season Porcello has faced a slate of struggling offense so his numbers are well below where they are eventually going to end up for this season. Thus the value in a spot like this to essentially "go against" him. The reason the play is the over rather than Oakland is because the A's will have Eric Surkamp toeing the rubber tonight. The lefty is 0-2 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in his four starts this season. He's been very hittable as you can you see and Surkamp faces a red hot Red Sox offense that also just saw a southpaw starter last night too. In winning 9 of their last 13 games the Red Sox have exploded for an average of 6.2 runs per game and Boston has amassed double digits in hits in 9 of those 13 games. The over is 4-2 in Boston's last 6 games and 6-1 in Oakland's last 7 games. When the Athletics are off of game where they allowed 10 runs or more the over is 11-6 the last 17 times. The over is 5-2 in Boston's games this season when the total is set at 9 or 9.5 runs. Take the OVER for a Top Play!

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 6.5 Runs - New York Mets @ San Diego Padres, Friday at 10:10 PM ET - We will play UNDER in the New York Mets at San Diego Padres game. Yesterday's game snuck over the total but the Mets had only 4 hits in the game. Though the Padres had 11 hits yesterday, San Diego had been held to an average of just 5 hits per game in their last 4 games. The Padres have struggled to score runs all season and now must face the Mets Noah Syndergaard who has a 2.50 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP this season. This absolutely should be a pitchers duel as the Padres will counter with Drew Pomeranz. The San Diego left-hander isn't the big name pitcher that Syndergaard is but Pomeranz has been "in the zone" this season to say the least! The lefty has a 2.48 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP so far on the year. Both of Syndergaard's road starts have stayed under the total this season and he has compiled a 0.69 ERA away from home so far. The Mets right-hander dominated the Padres in his most recent start against them with an 8 inning shutout featuring 9 strikeouts against 0 walks and only 3 hits. Pomeranz should also cruise tonight on the mound as the Mets haven't seen him since the 2012 season and he's on top of his game right now. The Mets have averaged just 2.3 runs per game in their 3 games against left-handed starters this season. The Padres are averaging just 3 runs per game in their home games this season. With the line move from 6 runs to 6.5 runs there is even more value with the under in this match-up. Take the UNDER for a TOP PLAY!

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 7.5 runs - Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics, Tuesday at 10:05 PM ET - In his career, Hisashi Iwakuma is 23-10 in road starts. He's made 3 this season and has pitched very well on the road despite not yet having a victory to show for it. Last season Iwakuma went 5-1 on the road with a 2.56 ERA and batters only hit .220 against him. The Athletics have been struggling to score runs and the Oakland Coliseum is a pitchers park. That means a pitchers duel should be expected here. The Mariners have stayed under the total in 4 straight games and the A's have stayed under in 3 straight games. Oakland is hitting only .217 at home and averaging just 2.8 runs per game there. Seattle, overall on the season, is hitting only .232 this year. The Mariners bullpen has been stellar away from home though with a 0.96 ERA and the A's bullpen has a fantastic overall 2.42 ERA this season. The Athletics pen will be supporting ace Sonny Gray tonight. Off of a tough, short start in his most recent out, Gray will assuredly bounce back stronger than ever tonight. He is 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA in home games this season. Also, Gray is 36-22 with a 2.93 ERA overall in his career. He is 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA in his career against the Mariners and Seattle's Iwakuma has allowed the A's just 1 earned run in each of his last two starts against Oakland. There is some extra line value here because the total jumped up from a 7 to a 7.5 and this is likely because of Gray's tough outing. He'll bounce right back as nothing is mechanically wrong and Iwakuma will likely have a great start as well as he continues his long-term run of success on the road. The under is 8-2 in Oakland's divisional games and 5-1 in their games against teams with a winning record. The Mariners have had just 8 overs in their first 25 games this season. Take the UNDER!

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 7 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 3:45 PM ET - We will play OVER in the Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants game. There have been two straight pitchers duels in this series after yesterday's 2-1 Diamondbacks win but the first game in this series was a high-scoring match-up and that is how we expect this four game series to wrap up today. In the first game in this series it was a 9-7 Arizona win. The Diamondbacks have won four straight road games so the hitters are stepping into the batters box with plenty of confidence. Today Arizona's lineup faces the Giants Johnny Cueto. The San Francisco right-hander is still getting use to his new home mound and he got crushed for 6 earned runs on 10 hits in 7 innings of work in his only home start this season. In his two most recent starts against Arizona, Cueto has given up 7 earned runs on 16 hits in less than 12 innings of work. The news is not all bad if you're a San Francisco fan however. The Giants should enjoy success at the plate against Shelby Miller of the Diamondbacks. The Arizona right-hander injured his right hand in his last start and had to exit early. His first two starts this season also did not go well. Miller has allowed 5 homers in less than 13 innings on the mound this season. Miller went 1-12 after the All Star Break last season and he was quite hittable in spring training this year too. It seems he's carried over his struggles from the second half right into the new season as well. With the Giants looking to avoid the sweep, look for their bats to do plenty of damage this afternoon on a day when the wind is expected to be blowing out and overcast skies are expected which means shadows should not be an issues for the hitters in San Francisco today. Take the OVER!

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 9.5 Runs - Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers, Saturday at 8:05 PM ET - We will play OVER in the Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers game. With yesterday's 11-5 win Orioles games have gone over the total in four of the last five. Baltimore is averaging 6.8 runs per game in their road games this season. The Rangers offense started a little slow this season but, with yesterday's result, Texas has scored at least 5 runs in 4 of its last 5 games. The Rangers have recorded four overs in their last five games. The Texas bullpen continues to struggle and this is particularly true at home where the Rangers pen has compiled a 13.50 ERA on the young season. Texas starter Colby Lewis has had the luxury of facing the Mariners lineup in his first two starts this season but now faces a much tougher test with the red hot Orioles today. Lewis has a history of struggles (despite a good W-L record) in his home starts. He has a 5.04 ERA in his last 18 starts in Arlington. Lewis has a 5.77 ERA against the Orioles in 7 career starts. Yovani Gallardo returns to face his former team as the O's starter tonight. He will feel some extra pressure facing his former team and, after having success against the light-hitting Twins in his first start this season, Gallardo was quickly given a reality check when he faced the Red Sox in his next start. The Orioles righty allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings of work and a similar result can be expected today. The over is 4-1 in Rangers home games and 4-1 in Orioles road games so far this season. More of the same on Saturday. Take the OVER!

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 11.5 Runs - San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET - We will play OVER in the San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies game. Snow in Denver in mid-April is not uncommon at all. That said, the fact that this is an evening game with a game-time temperature near 70 degrees and the wind blowing out will certainly have the hitters in "attack mode" in this one. Yesterday the Giants scored 7 runs but the Rockies hitters ended up frustrated as Jeff Samardzija had a rare strong start. Colorado's powerful lineup can take out some of that frustration on Jake Peavy tonight. The veteran right-hander allowed 4 earned runs on 10 hits in only 5 innings of work in his season opening start. That does not bode well for Peavy now taking the mound in a hitter-friendly venue considering that his first start was at pitcher-friendly AT & T Park. Peavy did face the Rockies twice late last season and he gave up a pair of homers. He also looked very hittable against the Dodgers last week. Rockies offense should roll in this one but their pitching is a major question mark. Not only has the Colorado bullpen been awful early this season, starting pitcher Jordan Lyles was awful in his first start and that came against light-hitting San Diego. Things won't get any easier for Lyles against the Giants. In his five career starts against San Francisco, Lyles has a 5.81 ERA. He'll be facing a Giants lineup that is expected to get a boost with the return of Buster Posey tonight. Hitters park and a game that should be a slug-fest. This one earns the 10* Rating. Take the OVER!

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 7 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 4:10 PM ET - We will play UNDER in the Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers game. Patrick Corbin had a fantastic spring training this year. Undefeated in his five starts and he compiled a 1.71 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a .222 batting average. Corbin was done in a bit by the home run ball in his first start this season but he faced the high powered Rockies and Chase Field is certainly a hitter-friendly venue. Tuesday afternoon Corbin will be "rocking and firing" at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Corbin is healthy again and this is already apparent in the way he's been throwing the ball. The Dodgers series-closing game at San Francisco went over the total but only 1 of LA's 5 prior games went over. The Diamondbacks series with the Cubs closed with an over but 3 of their previous 4 games were unders. The Dodgers will have Kenta Maeda on the mound and his first start showed signs that he is ready to live up to the hype. He dominated in that road outing and now gets extra recognition by making the start in the Dodgers home opener for this season. Maeda will be ready as the Japan native is not a true "rookie" though he is a rookie to MLB. Maeda celebrated his 28th birthday yesterday. The under is 42-31 in Diamondbacks games as a road dog of 125 to 175. When playing after an off day, Arizona was 21-12 to the under the past two seasons. Diamondbacks day games are on a 56-39 under run. Pitchers park and a game that should be a pitchers duel. This one earns the 10* Rating. Take the UNDER!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over the Total - KC (Young) @ Toronto (Dickey), Tuesday at 4:05 PM ET

Down 2-0 the Blue Jays exploded for 11 runs last night but Kansas City never quit, fighting to get back in the game and forcing Toronto to use four relievers to get out of the game despite the huge early lead. The Blue Jays were the highest scoring team in baseball but also a strong ‘under’ team at home with inconsistent scoring performances and inflated pricing, even though 9.3 runs per game have been scored at the Rogers Centre this season. The ‘over’ is 3-0-1 in Toronto playoff home games and going back to late August Rogers Centre day games have featured an average of 11 runs per game with only three of 11 games finishing with fewer than nine runs. R. A. Dickey is always a bit of a wild card and he did pitch well against Kansas City in the lone regular season matchup. Dickey also allowed four or more runs in 12 of his 33 starts this season and he had by far his lowest strikeout rate of the past four seasons. Veteran Chris Young enjoyed a nice season filling in for the Royals with 18 starts and 16 relief appearances. This will be just the second playoff start for Chris Young, last starting for the Padres in 2006 before making a four-inning relief appearance in Game 1 of the ALDS with Houston. Young pitched well in that game but it was in Kansas City and it was also a game with the pressure taken off as his team trailed from the start. Young made an average start against the Blue Jays in July with three runs allowed in six innings but only four strikeouts. Young was a strong strikeout pitcher in his best years in San Diego but he had just 83 strikeouts in over 123 innings this season and a lower than 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Young has only made two starts since the start of August and the team burned Kris Medlen with five innings of relief work yesterday as the bridge to the late innings may be questionable for the Royals today. The total on today’s game has been unsurprisingly pushed to 9 after the 19 run performance yesterday but these teams have combined to hit 54 extra-base hits including 21 home runs with each team playing just eight games in the postseason so far with both teams averaging at least five runs per game.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs - Kansas City (Cueto) @ Chicago White Sox (Samardzija), Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - ASA's A.L. TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija are high profile former aces going through difficult second halves of the season. Cueto and the Royals will be headed to the playoffs where he will be expected to be the top starter for the team but he has a 7.36 ERA over his last seven starts with the Royals only winning one of those games. The ‘over’ has hit in each of his last eight starts as Kansas City has been one of baseball’s best hitting teams this season with a .265 team average even with some inconsistency down the stretch playing with little urgency with the division title already clinched. The great Kansas City bullpen has had some bumps in the road in recent weeks and in two of the last three days they have received very short starting efforts to put some strain on the relief unit. Out of nowhere Samardzija delivered a gem in his last start allowing one hit over nine shutout innings but he had just six strikeouts and that start came in an early start make-up game last Monday. He has allowed four or more runs in eight of his last 10 starts as he has simply been one of MLB’s worst starting pitchers this season. Samardzija owns a 5.53 ERA at home this season with a 1.38 WHIP and the ‘over’ is 19-11-1 in his starts this season. In three starts vs. the Royals he has allowed 16 runs and the Chicago bullpen owns a 5.55 ERA over the last 10 games. The ‘over’ has hit in four of the last five games between these teams and with big name starters this total is kept at just 7.5, the lowest number since July in this series and that was a game with Chris Sale pitching.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs - Milwaukee (Jungmann) @ St Louis (Wacha), Thursday at 7:10 PM ET

The ‘under’ is 45-26-6 at Busch Stadium this season and with the Cardinals posting 10 runs last night the number is steady at 7.5 despite strong starting pitching on the mound. Michael Wacha had a tough outing against the Cubs in early September but he has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his last nine starts with great home numbers for the season. Taylor Jungmann has enjoyed an impressive rookie season for the Brewers despite a few recent shaky outings. He has allowed 16 runs in his last three starts but with just 19 hits allowed as he has had some bad breaks with five home runs surrendered. Jungmann has excellent strikeout numbers and St. Louis has never faced him which should be an advantage for the young right-hander. The Brewers have also not faced Wacha this season as both lineups figure to be at a disadvantage in this matchup. In eight of the last 13 games Milwaukee has scored four or fewer runs and the lineup does not resemble the productive units of the past with Jonathan Lucroy and Ryan Braun out of action. Yadier Molina is also out for the Cardinals and despite the continued winning the offense for the Cardinals has been held to four or fewer runs in 15 of the last 20 games. The ‘under’ is 8-2 in the last 10 St. Louis meetings between these teams and another low scoring game seems likely on Thursday night.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs - Milwaukee (Peralta) @ Pittsburgh (Burnett), Thursday at 7:00 PM ET

Wily Peralta left his last start after just two innings and while he appears ready to take his next turn his recent outings have been a struggle. Over his last four starts Peralta has allowed 11 runs and 24 hits in just 16 innings of work and he has been very hittable away from home with a 1.76 WHIP in his seven road starts this season. Peralta should get decent support as the Brewers have had a strong August and September so far at the plate. In 17 of the last 22 games Milwaukee has scored at least four runs, so far scoring 33 runs in the first six games of the current road trip. The Brewers swept Pittsburgh at home last week with 21 runs in three games with the ‘over’ hitting in all three contests. The ‘over’ is quietly on a 10-1-1 run in Milwaukee road games and an 18-7-2 run overall in Brewers games. Seven of the last nine Pittsburgh games have played ‘over’ with the offense posting 30 runs in the last six games and the Pirates are back at home tonight after a three-city road trip. Veteran A.J. Burnett will make his first start since late July tonight and it is not clear what the Pirates will get from the right-hander in what may be his final big league season. Burnett was a great story in the first half making the All Star team but in his last four starts he has allowed 38 hits and 22 runs with the ‘over’ hitting in six of his last seven starts. Pittsburgh needs to see whether or not Burnett can pitch on the postseason roster so he will get a chance tonight even though he may not be fully recovered from his strained flexor as he did not even make a rehab start. Pittsburgh has featured an excellent bullpen this season but the unit owns a 5.52 ERA in the last 10 games while facing a heavy workload on the last road trip with only two of nine starters completing seven innings. Milwaukee’s bullpen situation is worse with five of the last six starting efforts failing to go longer than five innings as both teams could provide scoring against bullpens that may need a lot of outs with both starters being monitored carefully from recent injuries.

ASA PLAY ON 10* #957/958 OVER 9 - Pittsburgh Pirates (Locke) at Milwaukee Brewers (Davies) 8:10 PM ET

It has been a rough season for the Brewers but the recent production for the offense has been promising, batting .275 and scoring six runs per game over the last 10 contests. Milwaukee has scored at least four runs in eight of the last 10 games and Jeff Locke has not been the same pitcher on the road as away from PNC Park he owns a 1.57 WHIP with a 5.61 ERA. Regardless of venue Locke has allowed three or more runs in seven of his last nine starts and he will be on an irregular schedule with his start pushed back two days. Zack Davies is set to make his MLB debut and while he was delivering a fine season in AAA in the Orioles organization he has struggled in five starts since joining Milwaukee’s AAA squad in Colorado Springs. In five starts his WHIP was 1.85 as he allowed 38 hits in 27 innings of work. In 10 of the last 14 games Pittsburgh has scored at least four runs as this remains a strong offensive team. There were 11 runs last night with each team featuring their top starting pitcher combining for 10 extra-base hits even with the squads going just 6-19 with runners in scoring position. The bullpens allowed five runs yesterday and Miller Park remains a tough place for pitchers with 9.1 runs per game on average and a solid lean to the ‘over’ and umpire Tony Randazzo has also been offense friendly this season with over 8.5 runs per game.

ASA PLAY ON 10* UNDER the Total -  Seattle Mariners (Elias) at Houston Astros (Feldman) 8:10 PM ET - ASA's A.L. TOTAL OF THE DAY

In 12 of the last 13 games Houston has allowed three or fewer runs with two or fewer runs allowed in 10 of those 13 games as the Astros hold a four-game lead in the AL West. Scott Feldman has done his part in what has been a fine season for the veteran right-hander and over his last four starts he has allowed a total of just four runs in 27 innings of work. Feldman has not pitched quite as well at home this season but he has allowed four or fewer runs in 11 straight starts with three or fewer runs allowed in all but two of those outings. He had a quality start at home against the Mariners early in the season and the Mariners are batting just .235 on the season vs. right-handed pitching, scoring fewer than four runs per game. Despite the home run power and success for the Astros, Houston is batting .240 on the season and in 10 of the last 14 games Houston has failed to score more than three runs as the pitching staff has carried the team. Houston posted eight runs yesterday on just 11 hits as they hit three home runs but that type of production has not been the norm in recent weeks for the Astros. Roenis Elias made his first start in nearly two months last week delivering a strong outing in Chicago with three earned runs allowed in nearly seven innings while walking no one. Elias has had some ups-and-downs this season but his control is generally strong and the last time he faced Houston he struck out 10 while allowing just four hits in seven innings. Seattle has been a steady ‘under’ team in road games while Houston has been an ‘under’ team at home with Minute Maid Park averaging less than 7.7 runs per game on the season. Umpire Chris Conroy has also seen the ‘under’ hit in six of his last eight games as a lower scoring game should be expected and the total is higher than last night’s matchup with the lack of elite starters on the mound.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 7 Runs - Kansas City (Duffy) @ Tampa Bay (Karns), Sunday at 1:10 PM ET - ASA's A.L. TOTAL OF THE WEEK

The Royals continue to provide some of the best offensive production in baseball and now with wins in seven of the last eight games Kansas City seems set on maintaining the AL’s best record. The Royals have scored five or more runs in six of the last eight games and this lineup is particularly well suited against right-handed pitching including posting a .302 average with 6.2 runs per game over the last 10 contests. In his first full season as a big league starter Nathan Karns has delivered solid results for the Rays but one of his absolute worst starts of the season came against the Royals in July, allowing seven runs in six innings. Karns only has one quality start in his last five outings as he has fallen off his steady season pace and the Rays have also had several recent hiccups in the bullpen. While the overall numbers for Tampa Bay at the plate are limited this is one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitching. Danny Duffy has not been able to match the success he had last season and he has gone 10 straight starts without generating more than five strikeouts. Duffy has worse numbers on the road and Tampa Bay for the season has scored more than a run more per game vs. left-handers compared with right-handers. The ‘over’ has hit in six of the last seven Rays games overall and Tropicana Field has leaned ‘over’ on the season as well. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* ‘OVER 7.5’ Colorado Rockies (Rusin) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Happ) 7:05 PM ET - ASA's TOP TOTAL DOMINATION 

Last night the Pirates and Rockies scored eight runs on 15 hits but there were also eight walks in the game and several missed scoring opportunities. The Rockies draw a second straight left-hander with J.A. Happ making his fifth start since joining the Pirates with Happ actually coming off back-to-back scoreless six-inning efforts. Happ faced Arizona and Miami in those outings and there is little in his track record this season or in his career to suggest that he is on a sustainable pace of success. Going back to his time in Seattle Happ has actually allowed three or more runs in 10 of his last 13 starting efforts and Colorado has been hitting left-handers well in recent games. Happ lacks the stuff that last night’s starter Francisco Liriano has yet Colorado scored three runs while striking out just five times in six innings vs. the superior left-hander last night. Over the last 10 games Colorado is batting .292 with 6.4 runs per game vs. left-handed pitching as the Rockies are still a very capable hitting team despite the mounting losses and a brutal 5-22 season record vs. left-handed starters on the season. Pittsburgh is 16-11 vs. left-handers this season and in the last 10 games the Pirates are hitting .288 with 5.1 runs per game vs. southpaw pitching. Pittsburgh is 13-3 in the last 16 games despite still trailing the Cardinals in the NL Central and the Pirates have scored at least four runs in 11 of those 16 games with five or more runs in half of the games. Chris Rusin owns a 4.97 ERA in just over 92 innings for the Rockies and his recent returns have been all over the map with 11 runs allowed in his last start but a complete game shutout in the prior outing. Rusin has allowed five or more runs in four of his last seven starts and he has actually pitched worse on the road despite his tough home pitching venue as his road WHIP is 1.69 and the Rockies are 1-7 behind him away from Coor’s Field. Colorado owns a 5.77 bullpen ERA in the last 10 games and while the Pirates have had great relief results of late the Rockies have great home run potential and a much better chance to get runs early in this game against Happ. These teams have featured at least eight runs in five straight meetings and the lefty-lefty matchup should favor both offenses Saturday night.

ASA PLAY ON #903/904 - 10*  ‘OVER 7’ Colorado Rockies (Gray) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Liriano) 7:05 PM ET - ASA's MLB TOTAL DOMINATION

The Pirates have won the last 10 Francisco Liriano starts but he has not been pitching as well as that run suggests. The ‘over’ is 7-2-1 in that span and Liriano has allowed at least three runs in four of his last five starts. He has surrendered six or more hits while earning five or fewer strikeouts in each of his last five starts and the Rockies have had recent success vs. left-handed pitching, batting .333 with nearly eight runs per game over the last 10 contests. In eight of the last 12 games Colorado has scored at least five runs as this is still a dangerous offensive team despite featuring one of the worst records in baseball. Rookie and top Colorado prospect Jon Gray has allowed 12 runs in four big league starts and while he has decent strikeout numbers Pittsburgh will be the top offense he has faced at the big league level. Gray is just 23 and while he could find better results away from Coor’s Field his AAA profile doesn’t suggest he is quite ready to be at the big league level as he had a 4.33 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in six starts in Albuquerque but the Rockies hope getting him some experience will help for next season. Since the All Star break Pittsburgh has scored 4.8 runs per game on over 9.5 hits per game while posting at least four runs in 14 of the last 21 games. The Colorado bullpen owns a 4.91 ERA on the season with even worse recent numbers as Pittsburgh seems likely to have opportunities to pile on runs late. Tonight is the first meeting of the season between the Rockies and Pirates but tonight’s game features a lower total than any of the six meetings from last season, with four of those games winding up with at least eight runs. Pittsburgh has been one of the best home teams in baseball and since the break the Pirates have scored 5.1 runs per game at home and the Pittsburgh offense has really supported Liriano, scoring at least five runs in each of his last seven starts.

ASA PLAY ON - 10* #955/956 ‘OVER 8.5’ New York Mets (Niese) at Philadelphia Phillies (Harang) 7:05 PM ET - ASA's MLB TOTAL OF THE MONTH

New York has scored 64 runs in the last six games riding a six-game win streak to open up a 6.5-game lead in the NL East. Aaron Harang does not look like a strong candidate to slow down the production and Harang has allowed four or more runs in nine of his last 11 starts sporting a 7.74 ERA since the start of June. Jon Niese has posted average numbers this season barely clinging to a rotation spot at times and while it appeared he had turned a corner in July he has been hit hard in recent outings, allowing 20 runs in his last six starts. The Phillies have been a formidable hitting team since the All Star break and they have had strong recent scoring vs. left-handers going 3-1 in the last four games vs. southpaw starters with 20 runs scored. Both bullpens are in terrible shape right now and it has shown with the Mets featuring a 4.54 bullpen ERA and the Phillies at 6.42 for relievers over the last 10 games. Neither pitcher looks reliable for a long outing tonight and with 47 runs scored in the first three games of this series there is little reason to expect a slowdown Thursday night.

#901/902 – Over 8.5, NY Mets (Colon) @ Philadelphia (Eickhoff), Wed at 7:00 PM ET

We cashed in easily on last night’s NYM – Philly over and we’ll jump on it again tonight.  Philly starter Eickhoff had great debut but got through six innings on only 75 pitches facing a poor hitting Marlins team. He is 25 and a 15th round pick so not a super prospect with high ceiling stuff, had marginal AAA numbers for Texas before making three good starts in AAA with the Phillies (Hamels trade).  Mets starter Colon is way past his prime.  He has allowed 4+ runs in four of his last seven starts and his ERA on the road is 5.65.  The Mets struggled offensively for much of the 1st half of the season but they have really kicked it in at the plate.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game since the break.  The Phillies not far behind scoring 4.8 runs per game since the break.  If we get past Wednesday’s starters without going OVER (we don’t think that will happen), both bullpens are struggling as well.  New York’s relievers have an ERA north of 4.10 over their last 10 games while the Phils relievers ERA is over 6.00 over that same span.  Two hot offenses facing suspect starters and struggling bullpens push this one OVER the total.

ASA PLAY ON 10* #951/952 ‘OVER 8.5’ New York Mets (Syndergaard) at Philadelphia Phillies (Williams) 7:05 PM ET

Noah Syndergaard has delivered a fine rookie campaign but there is a huge contrast in his home and road numbers with the imposing right-hander featuring a 5.05 ERA on the road, actually yet to pick up a road win with the Mets 1-8 in his road starts. After a dominant July, August has been a little tough in any venue as the innings are adding up and Syndergaard has allowed 13 runs in his last four starts. This will be Philadelphia’s second chance at the rookie and the Phillies have a much different lineup in place, finding nice production in the second half including batting .283 with 5.3 runs per game vs. right-handers over the last 10 games. Playing in Colorado helps to boost the numbers but the New York offense is on an unbelievable run, scoring over seven runs per game over the last 10 contests. New York had 15 extra-base hits last night and the Mets have scored 5.3 runs per game since the break. The Mets are known for strong pitching but New York has allowed 5.3 runs per game over the last 10 games with the ‘over’ on an 8-2 run. Jerome Williams has an average Game Score of just over 40 this season as he has been one of MLB’s worst regular starters. He has pitched slightly better at home and slightly better so far in the second half but he has allowed 141 hits in just over 100 innings of work and the Mets have eight runs against him in two starts this season. Both bullpens have struggled of late and more big numbers should be expected Tuesday night.

#955/956 OVER Arizona Diamondbacks (Ray) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Happ) 7PM ET

Arizona and Pittsburgh combined for 17 runs last night as the Pirates were walk-off winners in the 15th inning. There were 29 hits last night and 16 hits on Monday as both offenses have had great production in the second half of the season. Since the break Pittsburgh has scored five runs per game with 9.8 hits per game and excellent extra-base hit production. Arizona has scored over 4.6 runs per game on 9.6 hits per game since the break as well. The Diamondbacks have now scored four or more runs in seven of the last nine games and after facing one of the top left-handers in the NL last night they face a far lesser southpaw test tonight. J. A. Happ has an average Game Score of just 48 this season and in two starts with Pittsburgh his WHIP is 1.97. Only once in his last nine starts has Happ allowed fewer than three runs and while Pittsburgh has an excellent bullpen the unit is taxed with long extra-innings efforts in three of the last five games. Robbie Ray owns a strong 3.29 ERA but he has allowed at least two runs in each of his last 10 starts with three or more runs allowed in seven of those outings. The Pirates have won the last three games vs. left-handed starters with 23 runs in those three games including beating Clayton Kershaw as Pittsburgh’s current lineup is well suited to face southpaw pitching. Manny Gonzalez has been a high scoring umpire this season with 9.6 runs per game on average and a high walk rate and with neither starter a lock to go deep into this game, two well worn bullpens could struggle to close out this game against two of the top offenses in the NL in the last month. 

#901/902 OVER 7 Arizona Diamondbacks (Anderson) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Liriano) 7PM ET

There were just five runs last night as Arizona surprised Pittsburgh as a heavy underdog. It was perhaps a bit of a letdown situation for the Pirates coming off a grueling series sweep of the Mets featuring long extra-innings games in two of the three wins. Last night Pittsburgh and Arizona combined for 16 hits including seven extra-base hits despite the low scoring as the Pirates especially struggled with runners in scoring position. Pittsburgh has scored nearly 4.9 runs per game since the All Star break and the Pirates are 39-19 at home this season as they usually have far more success at the plate. Arizona is within a game of .500 as the Diamondbacks have quietly put together a respectable run. Since the break Arizona has scored over 4.5 runs per game while posting 9.5 hits per game with excellent extra-base hit production. Arizona does strike out frequently but the recent numbers vs. left-handed pitching are excellent. Francisco Liriano is always capable of a dominant outing and the Pirates are 8-0 in his last eight starts. He has allowed 10 runs and 23 hits over his last three starts however spanning fewer than 15 innings of work. Walks can be a problem for Liriano and he has actually pitched substantially worse at home where his ERA is 4.00. The Pittsburgh bullpen has been excellent but the heavy workload from the last series could have an impact this week. Chase Anderson has a handful of great starts to his name this season but his overall numbers are quite average. He has allowed four or more runs in five of his last seven starts and he has failed to top five innings in three of his last four starts. In the last 10 games the Pirates are batting .304 with over six runs per game scored vs. right-handed pitching and that is despite facing the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Mets in nine of the last 10 games, three of the best pitching teams in baseball. The ‘over’ is 10-3 in the last 13 PNC Park games and there is good reason to expect both offenses to have better scoring results than last night and with a very low total there is little margin for error for two rather inconsistent starting pitchers. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under the Total, Oakland (Gray) @ Baltimore (Tillman), Monday at 7:00 PM ET - ASA's MLB TOTAL DOMINATION

After posting 18 runs on Sunday and now 30 runs in three games to take the first three games in this series scoring runs Monday night should be a much tougher task for the Orioles. Sonny Gray continues to deliver a remarkable season with some of the best numbers in the AL including allowing just four runs over his last four starts spanning 32 innings of work. Gray’s Cy Young caliber season has not been fueled by his favorable home ballpark either as he is 8-1 on the road with a 0.98 WHIP and a 1.64 ERA. The Oakland bullpen has struggled but in Gray’s last seven starts the Oakland bullpen has needed only nine innings of work with Gray posting three nine-inning efforts. Baltimore’s win yesterday puts the Orioles in a playoff spot for the moment though five teams are within three games for the second wild card spot. Chris Tillman has endured a bit of a disappointing season but he had found great form in his recent starts before a tough outing in Seattle last week. In his previous six starts he had allowed only five runs and Tillman has been a much better pitcher at home this season. Both teams have far worse recent offensive numbers vs. right-handed pitching and the Baltimore bullpen has been outstanding this season. Oakland has been held to three or fewer runs in seven of the last nine games and Baltimore’s big showing yesterday puts the highest total of the second half of the season on a Gray start. The ‘under’ has had a solid edge in Baltimore home games this season and tonight’s home plate umpire Larry Vanover has been one of the lower scoring umpires in the league this season.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 7, Cincinnati @ LA Dodgers, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - ASA Top Total of the Week

Zack Greinke has fallen off his incredible late June pace and he did have a rough start in Philadelphia in early August. His numbers are still off the charts for a historic season so far and Greinke has allowed no runs in at least six innings in seven of his last 10 starts for truly dominant results in the majority of his outings. At home Greinke owns a 0.81 WHIP with a 1.43 ERA and he faces a Reds offense that has been held to four or fewer runs in 14 of the last 18 games. The Reds have not faced Greinke this season and Cincinnati has been a terrible road performer at 23-38 with a .236 team average and just 3.4 runs per game away from home. The offensive production for the Dodgers has slowed in the second half and despite eight runs last night Los Angeles has topped five runs just five times in the last 30 games. Extra-base hit production carried the Dodgers early in the season but the big hits have stalled and Los Angeles has been out-hit so far in the second half of the season even with the great pitching the team gets on most nights. It has been a lost season for the Reds but Anthony DeSclafani has been a bright spot. After some ups and downs he is in nice form of late with just seven runs allowed in his last four starts. He is not a big strikeout producer but a 3.75 ERA in 22 starts is impressive considering 10 of those starts have come in one of the worst pitching parks in baseball. The ballpark effect has been clear for the right-hander as his road ERA is just 2.57 with the ‘under’ 7-3-2 in his 12 road starts. Dodger Stadium should provide a good venue for another strong start for DeSclafani and 7 is a high total for a Greinke start with seven of his last nine home starts featuring a total below 7. The ‘over’ has had a slight edge for Mike Estabrook this season but he has a high strike percentage and strikeout rate as he is not likely to create any problems for the starters. 

#927/928 UNDER Atlanta Braves (Foltynewicz) at Baltimore Orioles (Tillman) 7 PM ET

Chris Tillman has endured a disappointing season when he was expected to take on a leading role on a contending Orioles squad. His season numbers are quite poor but he has clearly turned a corner with just five runs allowed over his last five starts spanning over 32 innings of work. Not surprisingly the ‘under’ has hit in all of those games and he won’t be valued like a top shelf starter unless he keeps this run going for a few more weeks and starts to resemble the pitcher he was the past three seasons for the Orioles. Baltimore has some big bats in the lineup but this is not a great offensive team, scoring four or fewer runs in 17 of the last 22 games overall. The Orioles have not topped 10 hits in any of the last eight games but they have the second highest strikeout rate in the AL. Michael Foltynewicz is moving back into the rotation after a spending most of the month in the bullpen and while he owns mediocre overall numbers with a 5.27 ERA, he has a nearly 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio while posting nearly a strikeout per inning. He delivered several impressive outings in May before having three marginal outings in a row in June to shift him out of the rotation but he will be an unfamiliar matchup for the Orioles and he has some potential for success. Baltimore has had one of the AL’s best bullpens all season and while the numbers for the Braves on the season are poor in the late innings the bullpen owns a 2.00 ERA in the last 10 games. Both offenses are hitting below .235 in the past 10 games as well with very poor numbers vs. right-handed pitching. Oriole Park at Camden Yards is a fairly neutral park in terms of leaning towards higher scoring or pitching success and on the season the ‘under’ has the edge by six games with an average of 8.5 runs per game in Baltimore. That is right where this total is but it doesn’t account for Tillman’s current form and the lack of experience in the matchup for both sides. The first game of this series went 11 innings with only three runs and 16 hits and there were just 17 hits yesterday despite 10 runs thanks to two Chris Davis home runs accounting for half of those runs. Those big hits have not been as frequent for either of these teams and the Wednesday night finale should play out in a lower scoring fashion.