Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-09-23 | Oilers v. Kings OVER 6.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
#71/72 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 Goals - Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings, Monday at 10:30 PM ET - Revenge game for Oilers as they lost 3-1 on home ice earlier this season. The Kings were eliminated by Edmonton from the playoffs in May so that was a revenge game for Los Angeles. But now the shoe (or should we say skate?) is on the other foot for this one! That said, Oilers will be pushing hard here and are off a loss to the Avalanche. 8 of the last 10 times Edmonton is off a loss their next game has totaled at least 7 goals and one of the only two that did not happened to total 6 goals. So, the point is, expect plenty of goals here! The Kings have allowed 4 or more goals in 2 of last 3 home games and will face a challenge here but should answer with goals of their own on home ice as well. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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01-08-23 | Lions v. Packers UNDER 49 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* UNDER 49.5 Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers, 8:15 PM ET - It’s been a while since these two division rivals played a meaningful game this late in the season. Basically, both teams need to win to get in. The Lions could potentially be eliminated if Seattle wins earlier in the day, but the Lions have stated this will be an important game for them either way. These two teams are nearly mirror images when it comes to basic offensive and defensive statistics. They both will want to establish the running game as the Lions rank 11th in the league in RYPG at 129.7, the Packers are 13th at 125.6RYPG. Both defenses really struggle to stop the run with the Lions giving up 149YPG (29th worst), while the Packers are not much better at 26th allowing 141YPG. Both defenses allow over 5.0 yards per carry which is significantly more than the league average of 4.5-yards per rush. The Lions have put up some big scores in 3 of their last four games but the Bears, Panthers and Vikings rank 32nd, 22nd and 31st in points allowed per game. Green Bay gives up on average 21.9PPG. The Packers put up 41-points last week against the Vikings but 14-points came via a 100-yards kickoff return and a 75-yards interception. During their 4-game winning streak the Packers have not put up huge offensive numbers averaging 328YPG which is well below league average. Green Bay is the slowest paced team in the NFL as they run 1 play per every 30.12 seconds. Detroit is fast paced but with both teams focused on running the football the possessions will be down for both. |
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01-08-23 | Blazers v. Raptors UNDER 226 | Top | 105-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226 Portland Trailblazers @ Toronto Raptors, 3:40 PM ET - The Blazers are coming off several games against some of the league's fastest paced teams and 3 of the four games ended Under the total. In their two most recent games versus the Timberwolves and Pacers (6th and 7th in pace) they combined for 219 and 207 total points. Now they face a Toronto team that is the 5th slowest in the NBA at 97.1 possessions per game. The Raptors have played in two low scoring games in their last two with total points being scored of 220 and 205. Portland also prefers a lower possession game as they rank 7th slowest in pace of play at 97.7 possessions per game. Both teams are near average in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings so with the lower pace we shouldn’t see this game being near the league average of 227.6 total points. The Blazers are on a 5-0 Under streak on the road, Toronto Under in 3 of the last four at home. |
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01-07-23 | Rangers v. Devils UNDER 6 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* UNDER 6 in New Jersey vs NY Rangers @ 1 PM ET - Devils likely to go with Vanecek between the pipes with this one and he has been solid of late. Rangers expected to go with Shesterkin here and he is rounding back into top form too. This is a key battle in the Metropolitan Division between a pair of rivals and there is not expected to be a lot of open ice in this one either as a result. That said, high-quality scoring chances are going to be tough to come by and this very likely turns into a low-scoring goaltenders duel. Shesterkin on a 7-2-1 run with a .930 save % and a 1.98 GAA in his last 10 starts. Vanecek is 14-5-2 this season with a 2.31 GAA and has allowed only 5 goals in his last 3 starts. Note that Shesterkin did allow 3 goals in most recent start but 2 of those were deflections/bad bounces. He looked strong and more of the same expected here. It all adds up to a solid play on the Under 6 in this one. |
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01-06-23 | Hornets v. Bucks OVER 233.5 | Top | 138-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 233.5 Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - This will be a game where both teams get plenty of possessions and scoring opportunities. On the season the Hornets are the 8th fastest paced team in the NBA at 101 possessions per game. The bucks are 14th at 99.7. In their last five games though the Hornets are averaging 105.7 possessions per game (1st), the Bucks are at 102.7 (3rd most). Charlotte is one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA as they give up over 118PPG. They have allowed 121 or more points in 6 of their last eight and 130+ twice. The Bucks defensive numbers are some of the best in the league but they’ve had a few hiccups lately allowing 118 or more in 5 of their last nine games. The Hornets get a large portion of their scoring on fast break opportunities and points in the paint. Surprisingly, the Bucks are average defensively in stopping fast break points and points in the paint. Milwaukee is coming off a horrible shooting night in Toronto and will find their stroke back at home where they shoot 47.6% on the season. Scoring has been trending up in the NBA and this number is within reach of an average NBA game which is 227.6 total points. |
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01-05-23 | Rangers v. Canadiens OVER 6 | 4-1 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
#9/10 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6 Goals - New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens, Thursday at 7 PM ET - The Canadiens have struggled to score goals of late but they also were stuck on a long road trip. Look for things to improve now that they are back on home ice. Another benefit here is it looks like they will be facing Rangers back-up goalie Halak rather than Shesterkin. Note that Halak's last 3 starts have seen each of the 3 games total at least 7 goals and the 3 games have average 8 goals! The Habs can do some damage here in the goal-scoring department but also are unlikely to slow down the Rangers. The Canadiens enter this one having allowed 6 goals per game in their last 5 games! That said, a total of only 6 on this game is a bargain. The Rangers have allowed at least 3 goals in 5 of last 6 games. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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01-05-23 | Maryland v. Rutgers UNDER 131.5 | Top | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
#737/738 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 131.5 Points – Maryland vs Rutgers, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - Two very solid defenses that make opposing offenses work for shots leads to a lower scoring game here. These defenses are each rated in the top 30 nationally in adjusted efficiency and in the top 20 in eFG% defense. Maryland’s defense limits opponents to a shot very 17.9 seconds (281st) and Rutgers defense is allowing a shot every 18.3 seconds (336th) so both offense are really going to be limited when it comes to how many shots they actually get. When looking at Unders we like to find games where 3 point shots won’t be a huge factor. We expect that to be the case here as neither teams shoots the 3 ball all that much and neither does it well with Maryland hitting 30.8% of their triples (294th nationally) and Rutgers makes only 31.3% of their 3’s (272nd in the country). Now we add in both defensive teams which rank in the top 20 nationally at defending the arc and we just don’t many points from deep in this game. At home the Scarlet Knights have been through the roof defensively allowing just 50 PPG so far this season and they’ve allowed just 1 of their 10 opponents to reach the 60 point mark. Maryland has faced 5 top 100 defenses (adjusted efficiency) this season and they are averaging 58 PPG in those contests (Rutgers ranks 3rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency). Rutgers has also faced 5 teams rated in the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency and they have averaged 59 PPG in those games (Maryland ranks 30th in adjusted defensive efficiency). These 2 met twice last season and both games fell below 130 total points. Take the Under on Thursday Night. |
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01-03-23 | Wizards v. Bucks OVER 228 | Top | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 228 Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - These two teams just squared off the other day in Milwaukee and produced 213 total points and stayed Under the number of 221.5. They had plenty of possessions though as the Wizards attempted 94 field goals, the Bucks hoisted 96. Milwaukee shot just 35% from the field overall and 27% from Deep which are both well below season averages of 45.6% and 34.2%. Washington scored 118-points without Bradley Beal (23.5PPG) who may be back in the lineup tonight. The Bucks were missing their two leading scorers as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday were both out. Giannis and his 32PPG is expected back tonight along with Holiday’s 19PPG. Washington is averaging 121PPG in their last five contests and the Bucks defense is giving up that same amount in their last five games. Both of these teams will get to 115 or more points here. Bet Over |
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01-03-23 | Coyotes v. Panthers OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 105 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
#55/56 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Arizona Coyotes at Florida Panthers, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Panthers have decided to start Knight in goal because Bobrovsky just struggled in the 5-3 loss to the Rangers. The only problem with this logic for Florida is that Knight is also struggling. The young netminder has allowed 14 goals on 75 shots in his last 3 starts. Yes that is an average of about 5 goals per start! The Panthers have allowed an average of 5 goals in their last 5 losses. Florida has scored an average of 4.4 goals in their 16 wins this season. 8 of Florida's last 12 home games have finished with 7+ goals scored. The Coyotes are staring Karel Vejmelka between the pipes tonight. He is their top option in goal but he has struggled of late. He has allowed at least 3 goals in 12 of last 13 starts and is allowing 4 goals per start in his last 7 road starts. The Panthers are angry off losses in 5 of last 6 games and should score very well here on home ice. However, the Coyotes are confident right now as they have scored an average of 5 goals per game last 3 games and we see this one turning into a wild back and forth affair. The key here being Florida's big weakness in terms of allowing too many goals. Florida scores well at home but can not stop Arizona either and that leads to a solid win here. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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01-03-23 | Nebraska v. Michigan State UNDER 132 | Top | 56-74 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
#613/614 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 132 Points – Nebraska vs Michigan State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Defenses are the strengths of both teams in this match up. Both rank in the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency and both allow their opponents to make only 40% from the field on the season. Both also prefer a slower paced game with MSU ranking 300th in adjusted tempo and Nebraska 281st. MSU has not allowed more than 70 points since late November, a span of 6 straight games. The Husker defense has really improved this season holding a number of high scoring offenses in check including stopping Iowa in their tracks in their most recent game limiting the Hawkeyes to just 50 points (Iowa averages 81 PPG). Nebraska also held Purdue to 56 points in regulation (Boilers average 77 PPG) and Creighton to 53 points (Blue Jays average 77 PPG) just to name a few. Offensively neither of these teams is a great shooting team. Both rank outside the top 180 in FG% and outside the top 200 in points per game. Since we hit December, Nebraska has scored 65, 65, 56 (in regulation), 56, 75 (vs Queens College), and 66 points. Since November 30th the Spartans have topped 68 points only one time (6 games) and that was vs a Buffalo who is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation with a defense thar ranks 218th in efficiency. 5 of MSU’s last 6 games have totaled 133 points or less and 4 of Nebraska’s last 6 haven’t even reached 130 total points. Under here. |
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01-02-23 | Utah v. Penn State OVER 53 | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
#283/284 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 53 Points – Penn State vs Utah, Monday at 5 PM ET - Both of these offenses are capable of putting up big points. Utah averages 40 PPG while PSU averages 35 PPG on the season. The Utes put up at least 30 points in 10 of their 13 games this season and PSU scored at least 30 in 10 of their 12 games. Both defenses had very good overall seasonal numbers, however those were bolstered by facing a number of weak offenses. Utah was involved in 6 games this season vs top 35 offenses. In those games the Utes defense allowed an average of 30 PPG in those games. PSU has faced 2 offenses ranked in the top 35 (OSU & Michigan) and they allowed 44 & 41 points in those 2 games. Both offenses are ranked in the top 35 nationally for comparison’s sake. Both are also very balanced and tough to defend as neither are one dimensional. Two of the top cover corners in CFB will be missing in this game with Porter opting out for PSU and Phillips for Utah. That should absolutely help both passing attacks in this one. We have 2 experienced, high level QB’s competing and both dual threat which will make it tough on the opposing defenses. Utah’s QB Rising has thrown for 5,500 yards & 45 TD’s while rushing for 900 yards in his career. PSU’s Clifford has thrown for over 10,000 yards in his career with 84 TD’s while rushing for more than 1,000 yards. The weather was originally looking slightly rainy but the new forecast as of Sunday says light winds (less than 5 MPH) with rain holding off until late in the game if it rains at all. 53 total points is too low and we’ll take the Over. |
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01-02-23 | Tulane v. USC OVER 64 | 46-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
#279/280 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 64 Points - Tulane vs USC, Monday 1 PM ET - This game has all the makings of a shootout with both teams putting up big offensive numbers. The Trojans were the 3rd highest scoring team in college football this season at 41PPG. Tulane was far behind as they put up 35PPG which ranked 21st. USC puts up on average nearly 500YPG (5th most), pass for 325YPG (5th) and run it for 174YPG which ranks 51st. The Green Wave have some impressive offensive statistics of their own as they average 434YPG (34th), throw it for 236YPG (58th) and run it for 197YPG (31st). Defensively the Trojans rank 101st in YPG allowed and 112th in passing YPG given up at 266YPG. But they are not quite as bad as those numbers as they play in the higher scoring Pac12. Tulane has some deceiving defensive numbers as they rank 32nd in YPG allowed 18th against the pass and 73rd versus the run, but those numbers come against a weak AAC. In games that Tulane has been involved in recently they have combined for 60 or more points in 5 of their last seven games. On the season they are 7-6 to the Over. USC has a 10-3 Over record this season and 7 of their last ten games have finished with 60 or more points. Both offenses will shine here in a high scoring affair. |
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01-01-23 | Sharks v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 in Chicago vs San Jose - The Sharks have had 24 of last 30 games total at least 6 goals! That is 80% over a long period of time so there is a lot of value with this total Sunday posted at only 6 goals. We get a lower number on this total because Chicago is involved and they have had issues scoring at times. But both the Blackhawks and the Sharks are giving up a lot of goals and both clubs are also in a back to back spot here so the situation is ideal with back-up goalies involved and some tired defensemen. San Jose has allowed 5 goals per game last 6 games. Chicago has allowed 4 goals per game last 9 games. 5-4 would be great here but 4-3 works just as well for us. Excellent value as it all adds up to a solid play on the Over 6 in this one. |
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ASA ALL Sports Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-09-23 | Oilers v. Kings OVER 6.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
01-08-23 | Lions v. Packers UNDER 49 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
01-08-23 | Blazers v. Raptors UNDER 226 | Top | 105-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
01-07-23 | Rangers v. Devils UNDER 6 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
01-06-23 | Hornets v. Bucks OVER 233.5 | Top | 138-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
01-05-23 | Rangers v. Canadiens OVER 6 | 4-1 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
01-05-23 | Maryland v. Rutgers UNDER 131.5 | Top | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
01-03-23 | Wizards v. Bucks OVER 228 | Top | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
01-03-23 | Coyotes v. Panthers OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 105 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
01-03-23 | Nebraska v. Michigan State UNDER 132 | Top | 56-74 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
01-02-23 | Utah v. Penn State OVER 53 | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
01-02-23 | Tulane v. USC OVER 64 | 46-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
01-01-23 | Sharks v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |