Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-30-23 | Creighton v. Marquette OVER 150 | Top | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
#627/628 ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 150 Points – Creighton vs Marquette, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Two of the top offensive teams in the country facing off here and we expect a shootout on the scoreboard. Both rank in the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency with Creighton averaging 1.16 adjusted PPP and Marquette 1.15. Creighton ranks 4th in the nation in eFG% and Marquette is in the top 45. The Blue Jays average 83 PPG but that moves up to 84 PPG on the road so no drop off whatsoever. The Golden Eagles step in averaging 78.5 PPG but at home they are much more comfortable offensively averaging 87 PPG on over 50% shooting. Creighton has scored at least 79 points in 9 of their 12 games this season and Marquette has scored at least 75 points in 8 of their 13 games. The Eagles like to play fast ranking in the top 100 in pace. Creighton is middle of the pack in pace, however, they’ve played mainly slow paced teams this year with the exception of 2. In their 2 games vs teams ranked inside the top 100 in pace (Bama & Iowa), they totaled 176 and 167 points. We expect plenty of possessions in this game with the offenses in control. Over is the call. |
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12-29-23 | Hornets v. Suns UNDER 231.5 | Top | 119-133 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 231.5 Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - Charlotte is coming off a game last night and gave up 133 to the Lakers. They have given up some big numbers recently against the Lakers, Pacers and 76ers but we don’t expect that tonight in Phoenix. The three teams previously mentioned are faster paced teams ranking 13th or better but the Suns are the 5th slowest team in the NBA. Phoenix is also an average team in terms of offensive efficiency at 1.166-points per possession. Charlotte doesn’t play fast either (without Ball in the lineup) ranking 17th in pace this season overall and they’ve been slower yet in their last five games at 97.7 possessions per game. The Hornets are struggling offensively having scored 114 or less points in 9 straight games and 104 or less in 5 of nine. The Suns had an outlier offensive game last time out when they put up 129 against the Rockets. Prior to that they had scored 114 or less in 7 of their last nine games. We aren’t expecting many points in this game and will BET UNDER. |
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12-29-23 | Memphis v. Iowa State OVER 57 | Top | 36-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 57 or 57.5 Points – Memphis vs Iowa State, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a home game for Memphis. The Tigers offense was among the best in college football all season long. They averaged 40 PPG on the season (7th nationally) and at home they put up 43 PPG. They’ll be facing an ISU defense that is down this year compared to previous seasons. The Cyclones rank outside the top 40 in total defense after ranking 2nd in that stat last season and 8th the year before. ISU will also be missing a few key contributors in the secondary which could be a problem vs a Memphis pass offense that ranks 13th in the nation averaging more than 300 yards through the air. On the other side, the Iowa State offense was humming down the stretch putting up at least 30 points in 4 of their last 6 games. On Friday they are facing a Memphis defense that has been poor all season. The Tigers rank outside the top 100 in total defense, YPP allowed, rushing defense, and pass defense. They are also allowing 29 PPG on the season and allowed at least 30 points in 7 of their 12 games this season. The only FBS teams that didn’t reach 30 points on this Memphis defense were Temple, UAB, Arkansas State, and Navy and 3 of those 4 are ranked outside the top 70 in total offense. This will be the 2nd worst statistical defense ISU will play this season and the Cyclones averaged 34 PPG vs the 4 lowest rated defenses they faced this year. Both teams will have to keep up on the scoreboard here and we expect a shootout in Memphis. |
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12-28-23 | UCLA v. Oregon State UNDER 128.5 | Top | 69-62 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
#729/730 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 128.5 Points – UCLA vs Oregon State, Thursday at 10 PM ET - The defenses for each of these teams will be the best 2 units on the floor. Both rank in the to 50 in FG% allowed and they both allow only 30% from beyond the arc. UCLA is allowing only 62 PPG (14th best nationally) despite already facing 4 teams ranked in the top 35 in the country in offensive efficiency. Oregon State is allowing 69 PPG but 3 of their games have gone to OT and 2 went to double OT so those numbers are higher than they should be. The Beavers have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 65 points or less. These 2 offenses have struggled all season and we don’t see that changing here. They shoot just 42% (UCLA) and 43% (OSU) on the season and neither team is hitting 30% of their 3 pointers. Neither offense scores many points from deep both ranking outside the top 320 in percentage of points from outside the arc. We don’t look for many offensive possessions here as we have 2 slow paced teams facing off. That is especially the case on the defensive end where both teams make their opponents work very hard to get good shots. UCLA allows a shot attempts every 18.3 seconds and Oregon State allows a shot attempt every 18.5 seconds (both in the top 30 in the country). Last year these 2 totaled 109 points in their only meeting and we anticipate another grinder on Thursday night. |
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12-25-23 | Ravens v. 49ers UNDER 47 | Top | 33-19 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 43 m | Show |
#481/482 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 47 Points - Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - These are two of the best overall defenses in the NFL ranking 1st and 4th in EPA and DVOA. San Francisco gives up 16.7PPG and 1-point scored for every 18.6 yards gained which rank 2nd and 1st in the NFL. Baltimore allows 16.1PPG and has a Yards Per Point defense of 17.9YPPT which rank 1st and 2nd respectively. Offensively both teams have some impressive overall statistics as each rank top 5 in both yards per play and total yards per game gained and scoring. But a closer look tells us that each team's offensive numbers may be a bit misleading based on the defenses they’ve faced. In San Francisco’s last six games they have not faced a defense ranked higher than 20th in EPA. In Baltimore’s last six games they have faced one defense ranked 19th or better in EPA. Baltimore is the 27th slowest paced team in the NFL at 1-play run every 29.6 seconds. The Niners are the slowest team in the league at 31.3 seconds per play. Baltimore’s best shot to beat this 49ers defense, which is soft in the interior, is by running the football. San Francisco is 19th in yards per rush allowed. The Ravens run the football more than anyone in the league at 32.7 rushing attempts per game and will be happy to grind away with the running game and keep the 49ers offense on the sidelines. San Francisco is 6th in rushing attempts per game and will also focus on their rushing attack against a Ravens D that allows 4.3YPR. With a heavy volume of tickets and money on the Over by public bettors we will gladly go opposite and be the Under here. |
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12-24-23 | Colts v. Falcons OVER 45 | 10-29 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
#457/458 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 45 Points – Indianapolis vs Atlanta, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Atlanta is off terrible offensive showing last week losing 9-7 which is giving us some value on this total. Last week’s game @ Carolina was in a monsoon with rain and wind make it very tough on the offenses. On top of that, Carolina can’t score so the Falcons weren’t pressed to keep up so to speak on the scoreboard. The Falcons had a lead the vast majority of the game so they stuck to a conservative game plan (12 completed passes & 31 rush attempts). Atlanta is making a switch at QB going back to Heinecke which many times gives the offense a 1 game boost. In the 2 games he started this season the Falcons averaged 25.5 PPG and those games totaled 59 and 51 points. They have been terrible on offense on the road averaging 13 PPG but at home they are averaging almost 24 PPG. The Colts have been an Over team all season long. They have gone over the total 10 times this year which is the most in the NFL. Their defense is a liability ranking 8th in scoring allowing 24.5 PPG (27th in the NFL). On the other side of the ball Indy is a top 10 scoring offense and they’ve put up at least 27 points in 6 of their last 8 games. They are also a very fast paced team ranking 2nd in the NFL in seconds per play. We have perfect conditions inside in Atlanta and we look for both offenses to thrive on Sunday. Over is the play. |
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12-24-23 | Browns v. Texans OVER 40 | Top | 36-22 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
#461/462 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 40 Points - Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This game has huge playoff implications for both teams as they battle for Wild Card positioning. Games such as these have trended to the Over this season as both team will empty their playbooks for a win. Let’s set the record straight regarding the Browns defense this season. They have been fantastic at home allowing 13.1PPG on their home field. When they are away from home they give up nearly 31PPG. Points allowed in their five road games are 36, 29, 42, 26, 38 and 26. All 6 of their road games have gone Over the total and those games averaged 55 total points per game. In the two most recent starts by QB Flacco for Cleveland they have put up 31-points against a solid Jags D and 20 versus the Bears last week. Against Chicago the Browns amassed 385-total yards on 6.1YPP. The Browns have thrown in 44.7 times per game in their last three games compared to the 37.5 they average on the season. Going up against an average Texans defense we expect the Browns to put up points in this one. Houston is middle of the pack defensively this season and they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. They rank 16th in total YPG allowed, 19th in Yards Per Play allowed and give up the 25th most passing yards per game. Houston will also score here too with an offense that is 10th in total YPG and 7th in Yards Per Play. The Texans put up over 21PPG on the season and have scored 24.7PPG at home which is 9th highest in the league. Even with backup QB Keenum in the game we like the Texans to score 17 or more points and that’s all we’ll need to cash this Over. |
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12-23-23 | Bengals v. Steelers OVER 37.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 37.5 Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:30 PM ET - Both teams are fighting for their Wildcard Playoff lives which is going to lead to plenty of points in this storied rivalry. We are seeing an uptick of scoring in the NFL overall and more importantly in games like this one with playoff implications. These same teams squared off on Nov 26th in Cincy which resulted in a 16-10 Steelers win. Pittsburgh should have scored more than the 16-points as they amassed over 420 total yards on 6.2YPP. The Steelers settled for three field goals of 41 or less yards and the Bengals kicked a 47-yarder. Missed opportunities by both teams was the story of this game as the Steelers fumbled at the Bengals 15-yard line, Cincy threw an INT at the Steelers 18. It was the Bengals QB Browning’s first start and he didn’t play well with 227-passing yards and that INT. He’s obviously been much better in his last three games going 79/103 for 953 total yards with 5 TD’s to 2 INT’s. The Steelers will start Mason Rudolph at QB who has NFL starting experience and shouldn’t be a drop off from either Pickett or Trubisky. He’ll face a Bengals defense that is one of the worst units in the league. Cincy gives up 22.2PPG, 6.0YPP and 4.7 yards per rush on the season. In their last two road games they’ve allowed over 30+ points in each. This isn’t the Steel Curtain the Bengals will face on Saturday either. Pittsburgh is 20th or worse in: yards allowed per game, yards per play, rushing yards and passing yards. In their last three games the Steelers have allowed 21 or more points to the Cardinal, Patriots and Colts. The Bengals average 5.5YPP offensively and score 21.9PPG despite injuries/lost games with QB Burrows. Three of the last four meetings between these two teams have totaled 43 or more points. Bet the Over here. |
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12-21-23 | Capitals v. Blue Jackets OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#53/54 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Washington Capitals at Columbus Blue Jackets, Wednesday at 7:07 PM ET - Great set-up for an over here. Washington is coming off a 3-2 win in the shootout last night and the back to back is going to stress the goalie situation for the Capitals. The Blue Jackets are a high-scoring team and the Capitals defense and netminding will be pushed to the limit here. Columbus has seen 7 straight games total at least 7 goals. The Blue Jackets have become a more wide-open free-flowing team and the goal-scoring has picked up as a result. Columbus has played .500 hockey for many weeks now and won 7 of 14 games and averaged scoring 4 goals per game in those 14 games. The issue for the Blue Jackets is that the goal-tending work has really tailed off of late. Columbus has allowed at least 3 goals in 7 of last 8 games. The Capitals also have a goal-tending concern here as their option would be Kuemper playing a 2nd straight game in a B2B which would not be good. The Caps other option (and the expected option) is that Lindgen will get the start tonight. He has allowed at least 3 goals in 6 of his last 8 games. In those 6 games, Lindgren allowed an average of 3.5 goals. The goals should be flying here as the Caps are facing a high-scoring Jackets team that is surging right now but, at the same time, Washington's confidence is surging with B2B wins and victories in 4 of last 6 games. Based on the above, we can't see either team finishing with less than 3 goals in this one given the above and this would translate to at least a 4-3 final. Over is our play here |
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12-19-23 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 235 | Top | 126-132 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 235 Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The O/U number on this game has ticked up slightly from the opener and we like the added value with an Under wager on this marquee NBA game tonight. Scoring is up as a whole in the NBA with games averaging roughly 230 total points per contest. To get to that lofty total you need several factors including pace of play, a poor defense or great offense. In this match up we have the Warriors who rank 13th in pace of play at 99.7 possessions per game, Boston ranks 23rd. The Celtics are 7th in offensive efficiency but the Warriors rank 15th in OEFF. Defensively the Celtics are 4th in defensive efficiency and allow 109PPG. Golden State is 17th in DEFF and give up 115PPG. When playing away from home the Celtics tend to play slower and score less at 111.2PPG which is significantly lower than the 123.6PPG they score at home. Golden State also plays at a slower tempo at home compared to when they play on the road and also score and allow less at home. In the two meetings last season these teams combined for 230 and 222 (in regulation) when they faced each other, and they have stayed Under the total in 7 of the last ten meetings overall. The bet here is UNDER! |
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12-18-23 | Wizards v. Kings OVER 247 | Top | 131-143 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 247 Washington Wizards at Sacramento Kings, 8:15 PM ET - The Wizards are in a tough spot here having played last night in Phoenix. Tonight’s game will also be their 3rd game in four days. Washington is a team that really struggles on the defensive end of the court and we know that ‘s where most of your energy should be spent. The Wiz are last in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.217PPP and 126.3PPG. They have allowed 130+ in 6 of their last ten games, 140 or more twice. Washington wants to play fast with the 2nd highest possession rate in the NBA. The Kings are going to score in this game and could easily get to that 130 number. Sacramento is 11th in pace and 14th in offensive efficiency. The Kings are averaging the 9th most points per game at 116.3PPG and are coming off a pair of games scoring 128 and 125. It’s a big number, but we like this game to reach 250+ total points. |
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12-18-23 | Eagles v. Seahawks OVER 45 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 45 Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 PM ET - The injury/illness status of Eagles QB Hurts is the big news here as he is currently listed as doubtful for tonight’s game. The Seahawks have their own QB injury to worry about as Geno Smith has a pulled groin and may not play tonight either. That means it could be a showdown between backups Marcus Mariota for Philly and Drew Lock for the Seahawks. We are still betting Over the total with the reserve QB’s. These two teams have very similar offensive and defensive numbers when it comes to DVOA ratings. Defensively both are in the bottom third of the NFL with the Eagles ranking 22nd while the Seahawks are 24th. Offensively though both ae in the top half of the league with Seattle 12th and Philly 8th. In their last three games the Eagles defense has been exposed allowing 33+ points in three straight and 4 of their last six games. Seattle hasn’t been any better, allowing 28, 41 and 31-points in their last three games. Both teams give up 5.7 yards per play (24th) and over 350YPG. Seattle allows 24.5PPG which ranks 25th in the NFL while the Eagles allow 24.7PPG (28th). We are expecting both teams to get into the mid-20’s here. Bet Over! |
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12-18-23 | Jacksonville State v. Tarleton St UNDER 126.5 | Top | 65-62 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
#881/882 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 126.5 Points – Jacksonville State vs Tarleton State, Monday at 8 PM ET - Defense is definitely the strength of these 2 teams. They both rank in the top 25 nationally in scoring defense allowing right around 62 PPG. Offensively both of these teams struggle to make shots ranking outside the top 200 in efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. JSU has played only 4 teams this year that have a defensive efficiency rank inside the top 200. They have not topped 60 points in any of those games and they averaged just 56 PPG. Tarleton State hasn’t played a defense with a pulse since November and in their 5 games vs defenses ranked inside the top 200 in efficiency they are averaging 65 PPG. We expect very few possessions this game as both are slow paced (313th and 322nd in possession per game). Both are very deliberate on offense especially with each averaging 19 seconds per possession which ranks them 335th in the nation. Three point shots will be kept at a minimum in this one as neither relies heavily on the deep ball. JSU averages 16 three point attempts per game and TSU averages 15 ranking them 335th and 344th respectively. When the do take a shot from beyond the arc, they are hitting just 30% (both teams) which is not good. Lastly, neither team gets to the FT line very often so we should be getting very few points with the clock stopped. Defenses and slow pace rule here so we grab the Under. |
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12-17-23 | Bears v. Browns UNDER 38 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 38 Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns, 1PM ET - We get a pair of solid defenses here and two very average offenses in what shapes up to be a low scoring affair. The Browns hemorrhage points on the road but have been much better at home where they allow 12.6PPG which is best in the league. Last week the 27-points scored by the Jags was misleading as they managed under 300-total yards in the game and scored a late TD with 1:33 remaining. The Browns have certainly gotten a boost from veteran QB Flacco, but he has a very low QBR of 41.5 with 5 TD’s and 2 INT’s. Let’s also consider the two games he’s played in have come against the Rams and Jags who rank 20th and 31st in passing YPG allowed. The addition of DL Sweat has bolstered the Bears pass rush which is averaging 2.7 sacks per game over their last three so expect plenty of pressure on the immobile Flacco. The Bears defense has been rising in the stat charts in recent weeks and currently sit 13th in yards per play allowed at 5.2YPP. In their last three games they are giving up just 4.9YPP defensively. We don’t expect Chicago to put up a big number here offensively against this Browns D. Chicago is 22nd in yards per play at 5.2YPP, rank 21st in total yards per game and average 20.8PPG which is 20th. The Browns allow the fewest yards per game in the league, 3rd fewest yards per play, rank 11th in rushing D and 1st in passing D. This game has that 17-14 type outlook. Bet Under. |
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12-16-23 | UCLA v. Boise State UNDER 48 | Top | 35-22 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
#209/210 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 48 Points – Boise State vs UCLA, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Both teams lost their starting QB’s to the transfer portal with UCLA’s Moore heading to Michigan and Boise’s Green heading to Arkansas. The Bruins did rotate QB’s with Moore this season, however Garbers (the back up) injured his shoulder in their season finale vs Cal. Looks like he will play but even so, UCLA’s offense was a train wreck down the stretch. This offense scored 10 points or fewer in 3 of their final 4 games including vs defenses ranked 109th (Cal) and 92nd (Arizona State). This is a run heavy offense (15th in the country in rushing attempts per game) that might be without the top RB Steele who has been held out of practice due to an injury. Boise’s offense was lights out at the end of the season but we’re expecting a huge tail off here as they are down to their 3rd string QB, CJ Tiller, a freshman who has never taken a collegiate snap. He’ll be facing a UCLA defense that is by far the best and most athletic stop unit the Broncos have faced this season. The Bruins rank in the top 10 in the country in most defensive categories and they’ve allowed only 3 opponents to top 20 points this season. Boise’s defense was poor early in the season but after head coach Avalos was fired (hearing players didn’t like him at all) they really played well holding 5 of their last 6 opponents to 20 points or less. Both teams average over 40 rush attempts per game (both top 25 in that stat) which eats clock and shortens games. We expect that here especially with the uncertainty at QB for both sides. This one stays Under the Total |
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12-15-23 | Senators v. Stars OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 102 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
#53/54 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars, Friday at 8:07 PM ET - Great set-up for an over here. Ottawa is coming off a 4-2 loss at St Louis last night and the back to back is going to stress the goalie situation for the Senators. The Stars are a high-scoring team and the Senators defense and netminding will be pushed to the limit here. Dallas has seen 11 of the last 14 games total at least 7 goals. This is not like the Dallas teams of old that played tight defensive-minded hockey. Instead, the Stars have become a more wide-open free-flowing team and the goal-scoring has picked up as a result. Dallas has averaged scoring 4 goals per game in the last 14 games. The issue for the Stars is that the goal-tending work of Jake Oettinger has really tailed off since he had a strong start to the season. Oettinger has allowed at least 3 goals in each of his last 4 games. The Senators are a solid scoring club and will be ready to go strong here after the disappointing result at St Louis last night in which the Blues were ready to respond after firing their head coach. The Senators had averaged 4 goals scored per game in their 4 games prior to the tough result at St Louis last night. They should enjoy success against a Stars club that has allowed 22 goals in the last 5 matches! This is not only a non-divisional but also non-conference match-up and that also lends itself to a more free-flowing affair. Based on the recent trending for each club, we can't see either team finishing with less than 3 goals in this one given the above and this would translate to at least a 4-3 final. Over is our play here |
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12-14-23 | Furman v. Tulane OVER 171.5 | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
#875/876 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 171.5 Points – Furman vs Tulane, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is a very high total but it’s set there for a reason. These 2 teams are all offense and no defense. On top of that, they both love to play full speed ahead when it comes to tempo. Both are in the top 20 nationally when it comes to adjusted tempo per KenPom. Offensively, they don’t wait to hoist up shots with Tulane taking a shot every 14 seconds offensively (5th fastest) and Furman taking a shot ever 15 seconds (20th fastest). We’re going to have LOTS of possessions in this game. Offensively these 2 both rank in the top 75 in efficiency and in the top 50 in eFG%. They average 87 PPG (Tulane) and 84 PPG (Furman) and they’ve combined to play 18 games this season reaching at least 80 points 13 times on offense. Defensively they both rank outside the top 200 in efficiency while allowing 78 PPG (Furman) and 79 PPG (Tulane) on that end of the court. Tulane gets to the line a lot with 28% of their points coming from the stripe (3rd most nationally) and they hit 76% as a team. Scoring points with the clock stopped will be big here. The Wave should also have a field day inside where they make almost 64% of their 2 points shots (2nd nationally) facing a Furman defense that ranks 338th defending inside the arc. On the other end Furman can hit 3’s making an average of 10 per game (22nd nationally) and the Green Wave aren’t great at defending the arc 181st nationally. The Paladins are also ranked 15th hitting over 58% of their 2 point shots. This one should be fast and all offense. Take the Over. |
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12-13-23 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 259 | Top | 126-140 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY on 10* UNDER 258.5 or 259 Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - These two teams just met in the In Season tournament with the Pacers upsetting the Bucks 128-119 as a 5.5-point underdog. There was a fallout in the Bucks locker room after the game regarding their defensive intensity, so we are expecting a much better effort on that end of the court tonight. The Bucks were the 4th best defensive efficiency team in the NBA a year ago allowing just 1.090 points per possession but have dropped to 23rd this season. Milwaukee is not that bad defensively, so we are expecting a trend up in this defensive category as the season wears on. Even with the Pacers being one of the fastest paced teams in the league and the most efficient offensively it will take great shooting and a lot of possession to eclipse tonight’s O/U number. In the most recent meeting these two teams combined for 198 field goal attempts, and both shot above 45% and the game finished with 247 total points. There have been roughly 339 NBA games played this season and only 24 of those games have finished with more total points being scored than tonight’s Over-Under. We are clearly betting the value and Under in this one. |
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12-13-23 | Pelicans v. Wizards OVER 241 | Top | 142-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 241 New Orleans Pelicans at Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - Even if Zion Williamson can’t play tonight, we like this game Over. The Wizard routinely give up 130 or more points and if the Pels get to that number this game goes Over the total easily. Washington has allowed 130+ in 7 of their last ten games and 4 of their last five. They rank last in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.217PPP and points allowed per game at 126.3PPG. We know we will get plenty of possessions in this game as the Wiz rank 2nd in pace of play, the Pelicans are above average at 12th. New Orleans is 12th in DEFF but in their last five games they haven’t been as good on that end of the court ranking 22nd. It’s a given the Pelicans are going to score here but we obviously need Washington to put up points also and they should. Washington is 6th in team field goal percentage at 48.2%, and 10th in scoring at 115.6PPG. New Orleans gives up 113.9PPG which is the 18th highest number in the NBA. We expect plenty of points in this game and will play Over. |
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12-11-23 | Nets v. Kings OVER 234.5 | Top | 118-131 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 234.5 Brooklyn Nets at Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - Brooklyn’s strength offensively is shooting the 3-ball as they are the best in the league in that department at 38.7%. The Kings don’t defend the 3 well allowing 37.5% 3PT shooting by opponents which is 24th in the NBA. Sacramento is more of a volume team as the 11th fastest paced team in the NBA and the 12th most efficient. You won’t find either of these teams in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency ratings either as the Kings rank 20th, the Nets are 17th. The Kings score an average of 120PPG at home while the Nets allow 120PPG on the road. Brooklyn is averaging 120PPG away from home and the Kings give up 119PPG. The Kings are on a 7-2 Over streak at home this season and are on a 34-19 Over run at home dating back to the start of last season. Now that Brooklyn is healthy the offense has started to click with 128, 129, 114 and 124 points in their last four games. With the added rest we like both teams to be fresh and expect the offenses to be locked in. Bet OVER! |
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12-11-23 | Packers v. Giants UNDER 37 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 37 Green Bay Packers at NY Giants, Monday 8:15 PM ET - The NFL Under trends and specifically Prime Time TV Unders will continue on Monday night when the Packers and Giants square off in the Meadowlands. Let’s put aside the Under record on MNF of 13-2 on the season and focus on the two teams involved and the given situation. Both teams have struggled to score points this season, especially the Giants who average 13.3PPG on the year. Green Bay is considered ‘average’ in scoring at 21.5PPG. It takes the Giants 19.5 yards gained to score 1-point and Green Bay 15.3 yards gained for a point. Both teams are hovering around average in pace of play, so it won’t be a high possession game. The Packers are below average in total yards per game at 329YPG, rank 13th in yards per play at 5.6, 20th in rushing YPG and 18th in passing YPG. The Giants offensive numbers are brutal as they rank last in the league in yards per game gained, 31st in yards per play, 18th in rushing and 32nd in passing yards. Defensively the Packers allow 20.2PPG which is below the league average of 21.7PPG. The Giants are allowing 24.3PPG but they’ve also faced some of the league highest scoring offenses with two games against the Cowboys, one versus Miami, San Fran and Buffalo. Green Bay is on a 6-3 Under streak their last nine games and the Giants have stayed under in 17 of their last eighteen at home. With potential high winds and adverse conditions, we like a low scoring game here. |
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12-10-23 | Bucs v. Falcons OVER 40.5 | Top | 29-25 | Win | 100 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
#113/114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 40.5 Points - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This number is slightly higher than the first meeting of the season when the O/U was 37.5 and the two teams involved for 29 total points. So that game stays under a lower total and this number goes up? In the earlier meeting the Falcons racked up over 400 yards of total offense at 6.3 yards per play. The Bucs had 329 total yards of offense at 5.1YPP. There were several red zone opportunities by each team that didn’t result in points including a pair of potential TD’s by the Falcons. Atlanta fumbled at the 1-yard line and fumbled into the endzone for a touchback costing them 14-points. Tampa Bay also threw an interception at the 11-yard line as they were going into score. The Falcons gave up 8-points to the Jets last time out but that was the Jets. Prior to that game this defense allowed only 15-points to the Saints but New Orleans had 440+ total yards of offense which should have led to more points. Prior to that game the Falcons had allowed 25, 31 and 28 points in three straight games. Offensively the Birds had scored 23+ points in 4 straight games before managing just 13 against a good Jets defense in rainy conditions. Tampa Bay has put up 20+ points in 4 of their last five games and the only game they didn’t was against the best defense in the NFL at San Francisco. Defensively the Bucs aren’t as good as their reputation ranking 14th in DVOA (ATL is 25th). The Bucs gave up just 18-points last week to Carolina but the Panthers offense is the worst in the NFL. Before that game the Bucs had allowed 27 to the Colts and 49ers. In the second meeting of the same season between these two teams they have gone Over the number in 4 straight with every one of those games finishing with 47 or more points. |
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12-06-23 | Magic v. Cavs UNDER 224.5 | Top | 111-121 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224.5 Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10 PM ET - We are surprised this Total opened as high as it did and like the value with an Under wager here. These two teams are known for their defenses as the Magic allow just 1.073 points per possession which ranks 3rd in the league, while the Cavs rank 13th allowing 1.136PPP. Cleveland is the 10th slowest paced team in the league at 98.5 possessions per game. Orlando plays slightly faster at 100.1 possessions p/game. In their last ten games the Magic have recently faced Brooklyn, Washington (2x’s), Charlotte, Indiana and Chicago who all rank 21st or worse in DEFF. Tonight, they face a Cavs team that allows opponents to shoot just 45.3% (7th) and give up the 8th fewest points in the league at 111.2PPG. Orlando isn’t a great offensive team either, ranking 19th in offensive efficiency and they don’t shoot it particularly well from deep at 35.4% which is 21st in the NBA. Cleveland is worse in OEFF ranking 22nd overall and they hit just 34.3% from beyond the Arc which ranks 26th. In four meetings last season these two teams had totals set of 213.5, 223, 217.5 and 215.5, which are all significantly lower than tonight’s O/U. Three of those four games all finished with 212 or less total points. The bet here is UNDER. |
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12-05-23 | North Texas v. Boise State UNDER 123.5 | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
#639/640 ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 123.5 Points – North Texas vs Boise State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Two very good defensive teams that play very slow should lead to a low scoring game here. North Texas is notorious for playing as slow as any team in the country and this year is no different as they rank 358th out of 362 teams in average possession per game at 64. Boise State is right near the bottom as well in that statistic ranking 301st at 68 possessions per game. Both teams rank inside the top 65 nationally in defensive efficiency allowing less than 1.0 PPP. Both also rank outside the top 115 in offensive efficiency and outside the top 300 in field goals made per game. Boise has played 6 games vs Division 1 opponents and only 2 of those have topped 126 total points. Those games were vs Va Tech and Clemson who rank inside the top 65 nationally in offensive efficiency. UNT has scored 79 points in each of their last 2 games but one was vs Angelo State and the other vs Mississippi Valley State who ranks 355th in defensive efficiency. Prior to that they played 3 straight neutral site games and averaged just 59 PPG in those games. What impressed us was in their neutral site games they faced 2 efficient offenses who are fast paced and held them to 53 points (St Johns) and 66 points (LSU). Those 2 games vs much faster paced and better offensive teams than Boise ended with total points scored of 105 and 128 respectively. This one should be a grinder and we’ll grab the Under. |
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12-04-23 | Furman v. Arkansas OVER 158.5 | Top | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
#863/864 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 158.5 Points – Furman vs Arkansas, Monday at 8 PM ET - In this one we have 2 of the faster paced teams in the country so we’ll get plenty of offensive possessions. The Razors are 35th in possession per game at 76.4 and Furman is 58th averaging 75.5. Both offenses are averaging over 80 PPG on the season and each defense allows north of 75 PPG. Arkansas has played 5 home games and scored at least 80 in 4 of those games for an average of 84 PPG. They should have plenty of success here vs a Furman defense that ranks 227th in defensive efficiency and 258th in eFG% defense. The Paladins have played 5 games away from home this season (road + neutral games) and they’ve given up at least 78 points in 4 of those games for an average of 82 PPG. Furman can put up points as we discussed and they are very good shooting team hitting nearly 49% of their shots on the season (36th nationally). Not an aberration as they return a number of key players from last year’s team which finished with a 26-8 record and landed in the top 30 in shooting percentage. These teams have combined to play 15 games this season and 12 have gone Over the total. We’ll call for another high scoring game on Monday night. |
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12-03-23 | 49ers v. Eagles OVER 47 | Top | 42-19 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 47 San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 PM ET - Philadelphia has faced a tough gauntlet of games including last weeks OT thriller against the Bills. Philly trailed for much of that game but managed a game tying FG with .20 seconds left to send it to OT. In poor conditions the Bills and Eagles put up 61 points in regulation. The Philly defense was shredded for over 500 yards by the Bills last week and have given up 22.4PPG on the season which ranks bottom third in the NFL. The Eagles rank in the bottom half of the league in yards per game allowed (341), yards per play (5.5) and are especially vulnerable to the pass ranking 29th in passing YPG given up. They will have a hard time stopping a 49ers offense that is 3rd in yards per game gained, 2nd in yards per play at 6.6, 7th in rushing and 8th in passing YPG. The Niners offense had scored 30+ points in five straight games to start the season then had 3 lower scoring outputs with Deebo Samuel out of the lineup. With his return they have scored 34, 27 and 31-points in three straight games. The Philadelphia offense will face a stiff test versus this top ranked 49er defense, but they have more than enough weapons on that side of the football. Philadelphia ranks top 13 in most key offensive categories including being 3rd in scoring at 28.2PPG. The Eagles have scored 30+ points in 4 of five home games this season and 28+ in all five. It’s not a stretch for both teams to score in the 30’s in this one. |
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12-02-23 | Illinois v. Rutgers UNDER 136 | Top | 76-58 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
#649/650 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 136 Points – Illinois vs Rutgers, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The last 2 years these 2 teams have met twice and the total points scored didn’t reach 130 in either game. We see a similar scenario playing out on Saturday. These were 2 of the top defensive teams in the country last season (both in top 25 in defensive efficiency) and that’s continued this year where they are both currently in the top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency. As far as straight defensive FG% these teams are currently #1 and #2 in the nation with the Illini allowing teams to make only 34% of their shots and the Scarlet Knights allowing 34.6%. Illinois has held 4 of their 6 opponents to 60 points or less and only Marquette who plays fast and is the 7th most efficient offense in the country, got to 70 points (71-64 Final). Rutgers has also given up 60 points or less in 4 of their 6 games and the most they’ve allowed this year is 68. On offense neither is all that great. Rutgers has topped 71 points only once this season yet they haven’t played a single defense ranked in the top 100 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings. The Illini have better overall numbers on offense but they’ve faced only 2 defenses all season ranked inside the top 150 and they were held to 64 points in each of those games. Both offenses rank outside the top 220 in 3 point FG% and neither shoot FT’s very well (57% for Illinois & 65% for Rutgers). Illinois prefers to play fast but Rutgers is a slow paced team and at home so we expect them to control the tempo here. Under is the call. |
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12-02-23 | Boise State v. UNLV OVER 60.5 | Top | 44-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
#313/314 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 60.5 Points – UNLV vs Boise State, Saturday at 3 PM ET - These offenses are humming right now and we don’t think they slow down here. After a slow start to the season offensively, the Broncos have now topped 30 points in 9 of their last 10 games. The only time they did not hit that mark was last week vs Air Force who has the 6th best defense in the country and Boise still put up 27 points and over 400 yards at 7.4 YPP in that win. UNLV has topped 30 points in 8 of their 12 games this season including 4 games in a row. Last week we were on the Over 59 in the UNLV vs SJSU game and the final score was 37-31. That game could have had more points as the 2 teams combined for only 6 punts in 22 possessions and the offenses combined to average right around 7.0 YPP. Both defenses in this game rank outside the top 90 in YPP allowed and outside the top 70 in total defense so we look for both offenses to continue their success. Boise’s defense looks like it has improved over the last 3 or 4 games however a closer look reveals they’ve been pretty lucky. Last week they gave up 19 points in an Air Force offense that has been in a freefall scoring less than 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games. A week earlier they held a good Utah State offense to 10 points but the Aggies had 4 turnovers and were shut out on downs 3 times in Boise territory. The only 2 teams the Rebels held under 20 points this season were Wyoming and New Mexico and they allowed at least 27 points in 7 games this season. This game is being played in a controlled environment @ Allegiant Stadium in Vegas so perfect conditions for scoring. Over is our play on this game. |
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12-01-23 | Spurs v. Pelicans OVER 236.5 | Top | 106-121 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 236.5 San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - The Spurs are coming off a game last night in which they allowed 137 points to the Hawks but scored 135 themselves. When playing without rest this season the Spurs have allowed 120 and 152 points. The Spurs allow 1.193 points per possession which ranks 26th in the league. They give up 123.4PPG which is the 3rd most. We know there will be plenty of possessions in this contest as the Spurs are the 3rd fastest paced team in the league at 102.1 possessions per game. New Orleans also prefers to play up-tempo with the 8th fastest paced number in the NBA. The Pelicans are at full strength here with the return of CJ McCollum and are coming off a 124-point outing against the 76ers. New Orleans should have an easy time scoring here against this Spurs defense that ranks 27th or worse in: FG% defense, field goals made per game, field goals attempted and 3PT% against. With the Pels having a high probability of scoring 125 or more points we like this game to go Over the total. |
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11-29-23 | 76ers v. Pelicans OVER 227.5 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - An average NBA game finishes with 227.8 total points being scored. We don’t expect this game to be ‘average’. The host Pelicans like to play at a faster rate as they rank 8th in possessions per game. Philadelphia slightly lower than league average at 98.8 possessions per game. Philly scores their points by being highly efficient on the offensive end of the court averaging 1.202 points per possession which is 3rd in the NBA. The Pels aren’t as efficient but still manage 112.9PPG. We are seeing New Orleans trend in the positive direction offensively with an efficiency rating of 1.168PPP which ranks 12th best over the last 5 games. Defensively these two teams rank 12th and 13th in points allowed per possession. The Sixers average 17.5 fast break points per game, the Pelicans average 14.8 which is 11th best in the league. Both teams also feast in the paint ranking 9th and 11th in points in the lane. Last season in the two meetings these two combined for 231 and 243 total points. It all adds up to a higher scoring game between these two teams. |
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11-27-23 | Wizards v. Pistons OVER 236 | Top | 126-107 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 236 Washington Wizards @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - Tonight, the Wiz face a Detroit team that is 24th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.178 points per possession on the season and allow opponents to shoot 50.3% on the season which is 30th or last in the league. Washington is last in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing 1.210PPP and give up over 125PPG. Washington is the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA with 103.3 possessions per game. Detroit is 13th in pace of play and prefers an up-tempo approach. The Wizards have allowed 130 or more points in 4 of their last six games. Detroit has given up 119 or more points in 7 of their last ten games. Washington should have a solid shooting night with the 7th best FG% shooting team in the NBA going up against the 17th ranked FG% Pistons defense. Everyone shoots well against Washington as we mentioned, and both score well in transition with the Pistons ranking 2nd and the Wiz 8th in fast break efficiency. It’s a big number but we like Over. |
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11-26-23 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 228.5 | Top | 120-132 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets, 8 PM ET - The Nuggets are coming off a 1-4 five game road stretch and are playing with only 1 day rest. On the season the Nuggets average 1.171 points per possession which is 9th best in the NBA but in their last five games they are averaging 1.163PPP. The decline in scoring of course has a lot to do with the injury to All-Star PG Murray and his 16.3PPG missing from the lineup. Denver allows just 107.6PPG at home this season which is the 4th best number in the NBA. In comparison, the Spurs are averaging only 106.4PPG on the road which is 17th. On the season the Spurs rank 2nd to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency averaging just 1.066PPP while shooting just 45.5% (24th). The young Spurs typically want to play fast but the home team Nuggets will dictate tempo and they are the 4th slowest paced team in the league. Denver is on a 6-2 Under run, the Spurs have stayed Under in 3 straight. Bet UNDER! |
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11-26-23 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 43.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
#269/270 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5 Points – Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Many still view KC as the same high scoring offense as last year’s team that led the league averaging just over 29 PPG. That’s not the case as the Chiefs are struggling offensively and averaging a full TD less than last season (22 PPG). The defense is what is carrying the Chiefs this season as they rank 4th in total defense and DVOA defense and 5th in YPP allowed. They are allowing only 16 PPG which is good for 3rd in the NFL behind only San Francisco and Baltimore. They have held 8 of their last 9 opponents to 21 or less and we don’t expect Vegas to get near that number with rookie QB O’Connell under center again this week. Last week the Raiders scored only 13 points @ Miami and in the 5 games that O’Connell has taken snaps they’ve been held to 17 or fewer points 4 times. The Raiders have been held to 14 points or less in 3 of their last 4 meetings with KC and this year the Chiefs have the best defense they’ve had during that stretch. What’s impressed us about Las Vegas is the huge upgrade they’ve made defensively. After finishing last season ranked 26th in PPG allowed, they rank 12th in the NFL allowing 20 PPG this season and have held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 20 points or less. Even vs the potent Miami offense last week Vegas allowed only 20 points. We think they’ll continue to play well in this division game vs Kansas City. The implied score in this game based on the spread (KC -10) and the total (43.5) is right around 27-17. We don’t think the Las Vegas offense will get to 17 vs this Chiefs defense and KC has only topped 27 points TWICE the entire season. Under is the call on Sunday afternoon. |
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11-26-23 | Jaguars v. Texans UNDER 48 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
#251/252 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 48 Points - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans – 1:00 PM CT - This is a big game for the potential winner in the AFC South with the Jags holding a 1-game lead in the standings, but the Texans beat the Jags earlier in the season. The first meeting had a total of 43.5 points and finished with 54 points being scored in a 37-17 Texans win. There were several big plays in the game with an 85-kick return for a TD along with a 68-yards touchdown pass. There was also a blocked FG that turned into great field position and a quick score for Houston. Eliminate a few of those outlier plays and that came stays Under the total of 43.5 points. With the added value in this O/U number we have to bet Under. Going back to September 17th we find that games involving Jacksonville have totaled 48 or less points 6 out of nine games. Houston and their opponents have totaled less than 48 points in 6 of their ten games and again, one of those Overs came when they played this Jags team and they had several unusual scoring plays. Three of the last four meetings between these two AFC South teams has resulted in 46 or less points. |
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11-25-23 | San Jose State v. UNLV OVER 59.5 | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
#197/198 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 59.5 Points - San Jose State at UNLV, 3 PM ET - It all comes down to this game to determine who will play in the Mountain West Conference Championship. Air Force and Boise State could still manage to get it but either way, all teams involved must win to have that opportunity. With that in mind we expect this game to be a shootout between the Spartans and Rebels. In conference action this season UNLV games have averaged 59.2 total points per game. Conference games involving San Jose State have averaged slightly lower at 56.8PPG. After a slow start to the season, SJST has won 5 straight games and the offense has clicked with 52, 42, 35, 42 and 24-points. The Rebels have surprised everyone this season with their 8-2 record, and they too have put up some impressive offensive numbers by scoring 31 or more points in seven games this season, 40+ in five. UNLV is 41st in yards per play offense at 6.2, rank 40th in total YPG at 425, run and pass it equally well. The Spartans are 58th in total YPG (398), 30th in yards per play (6.4) and rank 32nd in rushing yards per game, 81st in passing yards per game. Both teams also hit on explosive scoring plays as evidenced by San Jose State averaging 12.9 yards per point scored (26th) and UNLV averaging 12.2YPPT which ranks 12th. We expect both teams to get into the 30’s in this one and predict an easy OVER winner. |
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11-21-23 | Bowling Green v. Western Michigan OVER 51.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
#103/104 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 Points – Bowling Green vs Western Michigan, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We were on the Over in the WMU vs Northern Illinois game last week and the Broncos let us down with their worst performance of the season. We like them to bounce back in their home finale on Tuesday. WMU didn’t score a point last week but prior to that they were averaging 31.5 PPG their previous 7 games and only Ohio (ranked 5th nationally in total defense) held them under 21 points. BG’s defense went through a stretch of games recently where their defense looked very good. Those 4 games were vs Buffalo, Kent, Ball State, and Akron, and not one of those offenses ranks inside the top 105 nationally. Last week the Falcons gave up 32 points to Toledo and prior to that 4 games stretch vs terrible offenses, they had allowed an average of 31 PPG their prior 4 games. We like WMU’s to have success on Tuesday. On the other side, Bowling Green’s offense has been rolling to say the least. They’ve scored at least 24 points in 6 of their last 7 games and if we subtract their one offensive stinker during that stretch vs Miami OH (23rd defense nationally) the Falcons averaged 34.5 PPG in the other 6 games. Their facing a bad Western Michigan defense on Tuesday as the Broncos rank 11th in the MAC (12 team conference) in total defense and scoring defense. WMU has allowed at least 20 points in every game this season and they’ve allowed 40+ four times. WMU games have topped 50 total points in 7 of their last 9 games and BG games have topped 50 in 4 of their last 6. With this total sitting in the low 50’s we’re getting some value with the Over here. Weather can be an issue in the Midwest this time of year but not on Tuesday in Kalamazoo with showers ending before or near kickoff, temps in the 40’s and light winds. |
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11-18-23 | North Carolina v. Clemson OVER 59.5 | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
#341/342 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 59.5 Points – North Carolina vs Clemson, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - UNC’s defense has been brutal over the last month allowing at least 31 points in each of their last 4 games (minus their game vs FCS opponent Campbell. Last week they allowed 47 points (36 in regulation) to a Duke offense that has been flat out bad over the last month averaging just 16 PPG over their previous 5 games. Duke put up those numbers last week with their starting QB Leonard on the bench with an injury. Clemson’s offense has come alive the last 2 weeks with 73 total points and should have plenty of success vs a UNC defense that’s been poor (82nd total defense) to say the least. On the other side of the ball, the Heels have one of the best QB’s in college football in Drake Maye and the rank 8th nationally averaging 40 PPG and 3rd nationally in total offense putting up 520 YPG. Clemson’s defense has allowed 21 points or more in 4 straight games vs offense with an average rank of 54th in the country. The fact is Clemson hasn’t faced an offense as potent as UNC this season. The best offense they’ve faced in FSU (ranked 23rd) and they put up 31 points in Clemson on this team. Both teams are fast paced with UNC ranking 11th in seconds per play and Clemson ranking 39th so we expect plenty of offensive snaps in this game. The implied teams totals in this game based on the total and the 7 point spread in favor of Clemson are the Tigers 33 and the Tar Heels 26. Perfect weather expected in Clemson on Saturday and we expect both teams to top those numbers and we’re on the Over on Saturday in this ACC match up. |
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11-16-23 | Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 227 | Top | 128-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* UNDER 227 Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - The Warriors will be without Draymond Green (who doesn’t impact this number significantly) and Steph Curry who clearly has a huge impact on the game/outcome. Curry has carried the Warriors offensively this season averaging 30.7 points per game, on 49% shooting from the field and 45% from beyond the Arc. His absence was obvious in their most recent game against the Wolves when they managed just 101-points and shot just 42% from the field as a team. They also hit just 13 of 39 3-pointers in the game. Another factor is the pace of play and how it changes with the aging Chris Paul on the floor who prefers to play slow. The Warriors are 24th in the league in effective FG% at 52% but have an EF% of 47.4% in their last three games. It won’t be an easy task scoring tonight against a Thunder defense that ranks 7th in overall efficiency ratings allowing just 1.097-points per possession. OKC has held their last three opponents to 105 (Kings), 99 (Suns) and 87 (Spurs) points. This has been a very high scoring series but without Curry on the floor we expect a much lower scoring output in this one. If we go back to 2019 the Warriors are 78-89 (53.3%) Under when coming off a loss. |
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11-15-23 | Buffalo v. Miami-OH UNDER 41 | Top | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 43 h 43 m | Show |
#307/308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 41 Points – Buffalo vs Miami OH, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both of these teams. Miami has been solid all season ranking in the top 25 in total defense and YPP allowed along with ranking 12th giving up just 17 PPG. They have held 7 straight opponents to 21 points or fewer and the only 2 teams that reached 21 points during that stretch were Toledo & WMU, the top 2 teams in the MAC in total offense. In their other 4 conference games (minus Toledo & WMU) the Redhawks have allowed a total of 19 points or less than 5 PPG. We don’t look for Buffalo’s offense to do much of anything on Wednesday night. Their only real successful offensive performance in MAC play this season was vs CMU who has the worst defense in the league. In their other 5 conference games, the Bulls have averaged only 14.8 PPG. Over the last 2 weeks Buffalo has faced Toledo and Ohio, the other 2 highest rated defenses in the conference along with Miami, and they scored 13 & 10 points in those games. For the season Buffalo ranks 109th in total offense and 128th in YPP. The Bulls defense struggled their first few games of the season but they’ve played very well over the last few months. Since MAC play started, the Bulls have allowed an average of just 17 PPG, 3rd best in the conference, and only Toledo (by far the best offense in the MAC) topped 24 points. The Redhawks offense is very slow paced (131st in seconds per play) and with backup QB Smith now under center, they’ve relied very heavily on the run which eats clock. In Smith’s 2 starts, he’s attempted a TOTAL of 28 passes while running the ball 86 times. The Redhawks offense ranks 97th in total offense at 345 YPG, however over their last 2 games since Smith has been the QB, they’ve averaged only 263 total yards. We’d be surprised if either team topped 21 points here so Under is our recommendation. |
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11-14-23 | Hawks v. Pistons OVER 225.5 | Top | 126-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 225.5 Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - This line opened 233.5 and has moved down giving us added value with an Over bet. The Hawks are the 3rd fastest paced team in the league at 102.2 possessions per game. Detroit is slightly below average at 99.5 for the season. Detroit is 21st in offensive efficiency, averaging 1.103 points per possession. The Hawks are 5th at 1.177PPP. The key here is that both are in the bottom third of the league when it comes to defensive efficiency as both allow more than 1.140 points per possession. In their last five games, each team has been worse on the defensive end of the court allowing 117.6PPG (Hawks) and 118.6PPG (Pistons). Atlanta does a great job on the offensive boards with the 5th best average in the league compared to the Pistons who rank 14th in allowing O-boards. Conversely, the Pistons are 7th in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game, while the Hawks the 15th most. Both teams convert in transition extremely well ranking 3rd and 9th in fast break efficiency. Atlanta is coming off two straight games against top 10 defensive efficiency teams in the Heat and Magic and those games finished with 226 and 239 total points. Detroit is coming off two lower scoring games by their standards, but they faced a top 10 defense in Philly and the 3rd slowest paced team in the Bulls. Last season in four meetings these two teams scored 231, 248, 235 and 236. Bet Over! |
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11-14-23 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois OVER 54.5 | Top | 0-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
#305/306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 54.5 Points – Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The MAC has a number of bad offenses this season, but these are not 2 of them. In league play WMU ranks 2nd in total offense and scoring while NIU ranks 3rd in total offense and scoring. The Huskies also lead the conference averaging almost 7 YPP in league games. The Broncos have scored at least 21 points in every MAC game with the exception of Ohio, and they’ve put up 83 points over their last 2 games alone. The problem has been their defense which ranks dead last in the MAC in YPG and YPP allowed and 11th (out of 12 teams) in PPG allowed. They’ve allowed at least 20 points in every conference game and even terrible offenses, EMU and Ball State, put up 21 and 24 points respectively. Even Iowa, who has the worst offense in the nation averaging 243 YPG (133rd) scored 49 points on this defense. NIU is coming off their worst offensive performance in conference play last week vs Ball State but 3 turnovers limited their opportunities. We expect them to bounce back here. Prior to their game vs the Cardinals, Northern had averaged 32 PPG their previous 5 MAC games. NIU’s overall defensive numbers are solid but they’ve played so many weak offenses in conference play. 5 of the 8 worst offenses in the nation on a YPP basis reside in the MAC. The Huskies have faced 2 of the top 4 offenses in the league this season, Toledo and CMU, and in those games they gave up 35 & 37 points. Now they face a WMU offense that is right there with those 2 teams on that side of the ball. The Broncos also excel and running the ball and they are facing a defense that ranks outside the top 100 at stopping the run. WMU is also the fastest paced team in the MAC and top 25 in the country in that stat. Lots of scoring opportunities should be available on Tuesday night and we grab the Over. |
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11-13-23 | Broncos v. Bills UNDER 47.5 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 47.5 Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills, 8:15 PM ET - We are going to stick with the Under trend on NFL Prime Time games when the Broncos take on the Bills Monday Night. NFL Unders have hit at 61% overall for the season and Prime Time games have been especially profitable for bettors at 22-7 this season. In the last four weeks the PT Unders are 11-1 and the SNF and MNF games are 16-3 Under. Denver has some bad overall defensive statistics for the season but one horrendous game against Miami has somewhat skewed those numbers. In their last three games the Broncos D has played well allowing 19 and 9-points to the Chiefs in two games and holding Green Bay to 17. Denver has also made a commitment to their running game with 137-rushing yards per game in their last three games which is 4th most in the NFL. Buffalo allows 4.9 yards per rush which is 30th most in the league so expect a heavy dose of the running game by Denver here which shortens the game. The Bills haven’t looked like the team that was expected to contend for a Super Bowl this season and they’ve seen their scoring dip in recent games. Buffalo is averaging just 22.3PPG in their last three games and 1-point scored for every 16.2 yards gained which is 18th in the NFL over that stretch of games. Buffalo games have totaled 45 or less points in 4 of their last five. Denver and their opponents have combined for 36 or less points in three straight. We will bet Under on MNF. |
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11-12-23 | 49ers v. Jaguars UNDER 45 | Top | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
#247/248 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 45 Points - San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The 49ers started the season on fire offensively with 5 straight games of 30+ points. In their last three games though they’ve managed just 17 points in each game. They have seen a regression in their yards per play and total yards per game in that three-game span. On the season they have the 4th best Red Zone scoring percentage at 65.63% but in their last three games they’ve dropped to 55.56%. Jacksonville has won 5 straight games and have put up some points this season with the 10th highest scoring offense in the NFL at 24.1PPG. But a deeper dive inside the numbers shows a slightly different story as the Jags haven’t faced many defenses as good as the Niners. When the Jags faced a Chiefs team allowing 15.9PPG in September they managed just 9-points. San Francisco allows just 17.5PPG (4th) on the season and 5.2YPP which is 10th best in the NFL. The 49ers recently added another edge rusher in Chase Young and are coming off their worst defensive showing of the season in Cincinnati where they allowed 31-points. Jacksonville can also play defense with the 3rd overall ranked DVOA unit in the NFL. The Jaguars allow 79.2 rushing yards per game (4th) and 3.6 yards per rush (4th) along with an opponent’s completion percentage of 62.9% which is 11th best in the league. Jacksonville gives up just 19.5PPG which is 9th in the NFL. These two teams don’t typically play fast as the Jags rank 16th in plays per second, the 49er’s are last in the league in that stat category. NFL games tend to stay below the total when two teams come into the game with extra rest, which is the case here. Going back to 2018 the Under is 99-47-1 (68%) in this situation and it’s cashed 23 of 28 times this season. Some windy conditions in Jacksonville will also limit deep throws for both teams. The play here is UNDER the total. |
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11-10-23 | North Texas v. SMU OVER 68 | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 26 m | Show |
#119/120 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 68 Points – North Texas vs SMU, Friday at 9 PM ET - Two fast paced teams with great offenses going at it here. UNT is the 8th fastest team in the country running a play every 21 seconds while SMU ranks 34th running a play ever 24 seconds. UNT averages 77 offensive plays per game (8th nationally) and SMU averages 75 (17th). Not only does each team run a lot of plays, they are both high level offenses ranking in the top 15 in total offense and both averaging 6.5 YPP. SMU averages 40 PPG and UNT averages 35 PPG. The Mustangs will be facing a Mean Green defense that flat out stinks, thus why they are 17 point favorites. The Green are allowing 470 YPG (132nd), 6.4 YPP (125th) and 37 PPG (129th). As bad as those numbers are, they’ve only faced ONE offense this season that is currently ranked in the top 45 nationally and that was Memphis who put up 45 on North Texas. We’re confident the Stangs top 40 in this one as that’s their average and this is the worst defense they’ve faced. Can UNT put points on the board? Our answer is yes. The SMU defense is highly ranked in a number of categories and they’ve allowed an average of only 16 PPG this season. However, they’ve played a weak slate of offenses this season. They’ve only faced 3 teams this year ranked inside the top 65 in total offense and those 3 (TCU, Oklahoma, and Rice) averaged 31 PPG vs this SMU defense. UNT offense is tough to slow down as they are very balanced averaging 181 YPG on the ground and over 300 through the air. They’ve put up at least 39 points in 5 of their last 8 games. Based on the 17 point spread, the projected score here is right around SMU 43, UNT 26 and we think both teams eclipse those numbers. Weather looks decent in the Dallas area on Friday night with light winds and we look for a shootout in this one. |
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11-09-23 | Panthers v. Bears UNDER 38.5 | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 38.5 Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears, 8:10 PM ET - The Under trend continues on NFL games in general hitting above 60% on the season, especially the TV night games that are on a 22-7 Under streak. Carolina came out of their bye-week and was expected to be much better offensively, but it hasn’t translated to the field. The Panthers are averaging just 4.0YPP in their last three games and managed just 3.9YPP last week against a Colts defense that is allowing 5.2YPP on the year. The Panthers have put up 15 and 13-points in their last two games and average 17.5 on the season which ranks 26th. Chicago had found some success offensively with QB Fields but with QB Bagent they’ve regressed. Chicago is 19th in total yards per game, 17th in yards per play and score just 20.9PPG which ranks 19th. The Bears are 18th in Yards Per Point, Carolina is 24th. Chicago’s defense has allowed 20 or less points in 3 of their last five games. Carolina allowed 42-points to the Dolphins and Lions in their last four games, but those two offenses are far superior to this Bears unit. |
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11-09-23 | Virginia v. Louisville UNDER 50.5 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 6 m | Show |
#115/116 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50.5 Points – Virginia vs Louisville, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - We were on the UVA – Georgia Tech Over last week which cashed but part of that handicap was how Cav QB Muskett had been playing well. That changes here as Muskett was injured (high ankle sprain) and will most likely miss this one on a short week. His replacement was freshman Colandrea who picked up some experience earlier in the season when Muskett was injured. Last week Colandrea entered early in the 1st quarter and was only able to put up 17 points vs a Georgia Tech defense that was rated 130th in total defense entering last week’s game. Now UVA faces a high level defense in Louisville who ranks in the top 15 nationally in total offense and scoring defense and the Cards stop unit is peaking allowing 3 total points over their last 2 games vs Duke and Va Tech. They’ve held 6 of their last 8 opponents to 20 points or less. Needless to say we think Virginia struggles big time on offense here. This should be a run heavy game for Louisville which eats clock. They are a big favorite here and when they get the lead they’ve shown they’ll grind it out on the ground. Last week they got in front of a solid Va Tech team and ran the ball 38 times and attempted only 13 passes in a game that ended with 40 total points. A week prior they faced Duke, got out in front and ran the ball 48 times with only 16 pass attempts in a game that ended with 23 total points. We see a similar situation here and we’re not comfortable laying 20+ points with Louisville, the Under should cash here if it plays out as we expect. |
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11-08-23 | Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 219.5 | Top | 94-128 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 219.5 LA Lakers @ Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - We don’t see many points being scored in this contest and will bet UNDER the total. Houston is actually playing defense for their new coach Udoka which shouldn’t be a surprise considering his Celtics in 21-22 was #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. Houston has held the Kings to 97 and 89 points in their last two games and also held the Warriors to 106 four games ago. The Kings and Warriors were both top 10 in offensive efficiency a year ago. Now they face a Lakers team that was 20th in OEFF last season and currently rank 25th this season at 1.047-points per possession. Houston is ranked near league average in both offensive and defensive efficiency with their games averaging 218.8 total points per game. The Lakers are scoring less than the league average at 111.1PPG and rank 29th in team 3PT% at 29.8%. Both teams favored the UNDER last season when playing in this rest schedule with a combined 12-17-1 combined record. |
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11-08-23 | Akron v. Miami-OH UNDER 41 | Top | 0-19 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
#111/112 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 41 Points – Akron vs Miami Oh, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both of these teams. Surprising to most because they are a 2-7 team, the Zips defense is pretty solid. They are in the top 50 nationally in total defense (342 YPG) and YPP defense (5.4). They’ve been outstanding vs the pass allowing opposing QB’s to complete only 54% of their pass attempts (8th best in the nation). They’ve been a bit unlucky defensively allowing 1 point for every 11.8 yards gained (average is around 1 for every 15 yards gained) so their overall numbers are better than their PPG allowed numbers. They are facing a Miami offense that ranks 90th in total offense and they are down to their 2nd string QB Smith who made his first start last week for the injured starter Gabbert. The Redhawks already don’t pass much but it will even be less with Smith under center who has completed less than 50% of his career attempts. Last week Miami attempted only 11 passes vs Ohio. It looks like they played well offensively with 30 points but they were very fortunate to get to that number with only 290 total yards. On the other side, Akron can’t score. They did last week vs a bad Kent team but prior to that the Zips had scored 14 or fewer points in 5 of their previous 6 games. They rank 129th for the season with just 17 PPG. They are facing a Miami defense that is very solid allowing only 19 PPG on the season. They have allowed only 61 points over their last 5 games including holding Toledo, easily the best offense in the league, to just 21 points a few weeks ago. Both teams are slow paced with Miami coming in at 128th and Akron 76th in plays per second so we don’t look for many possessions here. Defense rules the day and Under is the play. |
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11-07-23 | Flyers v. Sharks OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -119 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
#61/62 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Philadelphia Flyers at San Jose Sharks, Tuesday at 10:37 PM ET - Great set-up for an over here. Two teams very hungry for a win and with fresh skating legs (both off since Saturday) and ready to push hard here but both clubs having major issues in goal. The Flyers will still be without top goalie Carter Hart here. That means Cal Petersen or Samuel Ersson will get the call. Petersen was struggling in the AHL so far this season and then he struggled against the Kings Saturday in his first game after being called up. Ersson is off a good start but this was a shock that can not be expected to be repeated here as he allowed 14 goals on just 59 shots in his first three appearances! The Sharks top guy is Kappo Kahkonen but even if he is back now from his upper body injury, he has a 4.30 GAA so far this season. Mackenzie Blackwood has a 4.77 GAA so far this season. Magnus Chrona is a rookie who allowed 4 goals on only 17 shots in relief of Blackwood Saturday in a 10-2 loss to Pittsburgh. Yes, the Sharks lost 10-2 and this was after losing 10-1 to Vancouver! San Jose has tied an NHL record with 11 straight losses to start the season! However, they showed effort early in the loss to the Penguins and then things unraveled. They badly want to win and will keep pushing hard but their defense and goaltending will hold them back. The same can be said of the Flyers who are off their worst game of the season as they just lost 5-0 at LA Saturday. Philly had not only not been shutout this season, they had never been held to less than 2 goals in a game this season and were averaging 3.4 goals scored per game in their first 11 games this season. So Philly can be expected to bounce back here and their power play did look much better but just could not get the finishes. Those will come against this bad Sharks team but, again, San Jose is going to bring it at the other end of the ice. They do not want to set NHL history with a 12th straight loss so SJ pushes hard here but can not stop Philly either. 5-4 would not surprise us in the least but certainly we should see this one get to at least a 4-3 final. 4 of the 5 games not started with Hart in goal for Philly have seen the Flyers allow at least 5 goals each time! The Sharks are allowing 5 goals per game this season! Based on the above, don't be surprised if one of these teams reaches the 5 goal mark here and we can't see either team finishing with less than 3 goals here given the above. Over is our play here. |
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11-07-23 | Ohio v. Buffalo UNDER 44 | Top | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
#101/102 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 44 Points – Ohio vs Buffalo, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - The Ohio defense is among the best in the nation and Buffalo’s defense has played very well over the last month and a half. The Bobcats rank in the top 12 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, scoring defense, rush defense, and pass defense. They have held 7 of their 9 opponents this season to 20 points or less including limiting their foe to 10 points or less 4 times. That defensive dominance should continue on Tuesday night vs a Buffalo offense that averages just 324 total yards per game (110th nationally) on 4.5 YPP (127th). The Bulls do like to air it out offensively, however Ohio gives up very few explosive plays in the pass game allowing just 6.0 yards per pass attempt (14th nationally). On top of that, as of this writing on Monday, the Buffalo weather looks a little windy on Tuesday night (15 MPH). The Bulls overall defensive numbers aren’t great but much of that was their early struggles through the first 4 weeks of the season. Since entering MAC play, this Buffalo defense has allowed an average of 16.8 PPG. Last week they did give up 31 points to Toledo, easily the best offense in the MAC, however 7 of those points for the Rockets came on a kick return. The Ohio offense isn’t in the same stratosphere as Toledo ranking 96th in total offense and 102nd in YPP. The Bobcats also rank outside the top 100 in scoring and have been held to 20 or fewer points in 5 of their last 7 games. This should also be a slower paced game with Ohio ranking 105th in seconds per play and Buffalo 52nd. We don’t see either team topping 21 points in this game so Under is our call. |
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11-06-23 | Wizards v. 76ers OVER 228.5 | Top | 128-146 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 in Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET - NBA games are averaging 225.2 points per game but this game will be anything but ‘average’. The Wiz are the fastest paced team in the league 105.5 possessions per game. They have to play fast because they don’t play defense and they are not overly efficient on the offensive end. Washington is averaging 115PPG but allowing 125.2PPG. They are 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA when it comes to defensive efficiency. That’s not a good recipe for success against a Philadelphia team that is averaging 1.188-points per possession which is 4th best in the league. The Sixers are the 6th best FG% team in the league at 48.6%, 6th in 3PT% at 39% and it doesn’t hurt they make their free throws at 81.8% which is 5th. Washington has some of the worst defensive numbers in the league including being last in FG% D and 28th in 3PT% D. The Wiz have faced Atlanta, Boston and Indiana this season who have similar scoring number to Philly and those three teams put 130, 126 and 143 points against Washington. Easy Over call here. |
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11-05-23 | Colts v. Panthers OVER 44 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
#467/468 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44 Points – Indianapolis vs Carolina, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We expect a lot of offensive snaps in this game as Indy is the fastest paced team in the NFL & Carolina 15th. Both in the top 6 in offensive snaps per game so plenty of opportunities to score here. Indy’s defense has been terrible over the last month – they’ve allowed 37, 39, and 38 points last 3 weeks and all 3 of those opponents (Jags, Browns, and Saints) rank in bottom half of NFL in offensive efficiency (YPP). On the other side of the ball, the Colts offense has been solid the last 3 games since QB Minshew took over for an injured Richardson. In the last 3 games Indianapolis has scored 85 points (28 PPG) and averaged around 400 YPG during that 3 game run. Carolina HC Reich gave up play calling to OC Brown and we expect some new wrinkles moving forward. Carolina QB Young played well last week with 71% completions and 235 yards passing in first win giving the Panthers some positive momentum. They only scored 15 points but had opportunities to score getting shut out on downs at the Houston 2 yard line and settling for 3 FG’s with 2 coming inside Houston’s 20 yard line. In this game we have the 30th and 32nd ranked scoring defenses here both allowing over 28 PPG. Colts games are averaging 54 total points this season and Panther games are averaging 46 total points, both higher than this current total of 44. Looks like perfect weather in Charlotte on Sunday with temps in the low 70s, light winds, and no rain. Over is the call. |
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11-05-23 | Seahawks v. Ravens OVER 44 | 3-37 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
#455/456 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 44 Points - Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Are you sick of all the Unders in the NFL this season? That won’t be the case in this game as we get an ole’ fashion shootout between the Ravens and Seahawks. Baltimore is 7th in scoring this season at 25.3PPG, Seattle is 11th at 24PPG. More importantly, the Ravens are 6th in yards per point offense while the Seahawks are 7th. It takes both teams just 13.9 yards gained to score 1-point. Both teams have impressive defensive numbers too, but those numbers are inflated due to the schedule they’ve faced. Let me rephrase that…the quarterbacks each team has faced. Take a look at Baltimore’s schedule and the QB’s they’ve gone against. Arizona/Dobbs, Titans/Tannehill, Steelers/Pickett, Browns/Thompson-Robinson, Colts/Minshew, Bengals/Burrows (injured at the time), Texans/Stroud. The only quality QB they’ve faced is Jared Goff and the Lions. The same can be said about the Seahawks when you look at their schedule. The only two good QB’s they’ve faced were Goff and Stafford and the Lions/Rams put up 31 and 30 points against this defense. Seattle and Geno Smith are capable of hitting a big play or two with an offense that is 7th in the league in yards per play (5.8) and yards per completion at 10.3. Baltimore is 9th in yards per play at 5.8YPP and 10th in yards per completion at 10.4. Baltimore owns the 4th most efficient offense in the NFL, the Seahawks are 8th. NFL games are averaging 43.6PPG but this game will not be average when it comes to offense. Bet Over. |
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11-04-23 | LSU v. Alabama OVER 61 | Top | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
#383/384 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 61 Points – LSU vs Alabama, Saturday at 7:45 PM ET - Bama has a solid defense this year but not a high level Crimson Tide stop unit of past seasons. They have very good overall numbers but they haven’t faced a decent passing attack since Texas who put up 34 points on the Tide. The average rank of the pass offenses they’ve faces since Texas is 68th. On Saturday they face the #1 pass offense in the country led by Heisman candidate QB Jaylen Daniels who already has over 2,500 yards passing, 25 passing TD’s and over 500 yards rushing. LSU leads the nation in scoring at 47 PPG and they’ve topped 40 points in 6 of their last 7 games. The Tigers have topped 500 total yards in every game this year but one and that was their season opener vs Florida State and they had 459 yards in that one. The Bama defense has allowed 20+ points in each of the last 3 games vs teams ranked 43rd, 45th, and 73rd nationally in scoring offense. Now they face the best offense in the country. We’re confident LSU tops 30 in this game. So can the Crimson Tide keep up offensively? Absolutely. LSU’s defense is bad. It looks like the Tiger defense may be progressing allowing 0 points vs Army and 18 points vs Auburn in their last 2 games. Forget about it. Army’s offense is one dimensional and terrible scoring a grand total of 14 points over their last 3 games combined! Auburn’s offense can’t pass (119th) so they were unable to take advantage of LSU’s defensive weakness vs the pass (91st vs the pass and 109th in YPP allowed). Prior to that, in their previous 3 games, LSU allowed 31, 55, and 39 points. The Tigers are missing a few key pieces in their secondary this week which will make it very tough to slow down an Alabama offense that has been clicking through the air. Since getting inexplicably benched vs USF early this season, Tide QB Milroe has completed almost 70% of his passes with 8 TD’s and 3 interceptions many games vs defenses much better than this LSU stop unit. Last year these 2 totaled 63 points and in 3 of the last 4 seasons they’ve gotten to at least that number. This is a keep up game in our opinion. Both offenses will have tons of success and each will have to keep up on the scoreboard. Weather looks perfect in Tuscaloosa with temps around 60 degrees with almost no wind on Saturday night. Over is the play. |
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11-03-23 | Cavs v. Pacers OVER 225.5 | Top | 116-121 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 225.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers – 7:10PM ET - This is a rematch from a game earlier this season in Cleveland where these two teams combined for 238 total points. Two things stand out from those results. 1) The Cavs had a 12-point quarter which is drastically lower than an average NBA quarter. 2) The Cavaliers played without their best player and leading scorer Donovan Mitchell who averages over 31PPG. The Pacers may be without T Haliburton here but that just means more minutes/opportunities for Aaron Nesmith who scored 26 points against this Cavs team in the first meeting. Indiana is 4th in pace of play which means they’ll want to play fast here. Cleveland is one of the slower teams, but they average 1.048 points per possession which is the 6th most efficient offense in the league. Indiana has the 2nd worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA at 1.204 points per possession allowed. Cleveland hasn’t been as good defensively to start this season ranking 16th in DEFF. These two teams combined for 225 or more points in 4 of the last five meetings. The bet here is OVER THE TOTAL. |
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10-30-23 | Raiders v. Lions UNDER 47 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 47 POINTS LV Raiders at Detroit Lions, 8:20 PM ET - We are betting the NFL TV night game Under trend will continue here with this non-conference showdown between the Raiders and Lions. On that note, heading into this past weekend, Unders were 22-11 this season when non-conference teams squared off. These two teams are two of the slower paced teams in the NFL with LV running a play every 28.8 seconds (21st), while the Lions run a play every 29.5 seconds (27th). Scoring is down in the NFL this season at 43.4PPG with Unders cashing at roughly 60%. The Raiders have the second worst offense in terms of efficiency and haven’t had any success running the ball or throwing it. LV is 27th in total yards per game, last in rushing yards per game and yards per rush. It will be tough to run in this game against a Lions defense that is 2nd in rushing yards allowed a 9th in yards per rush attempt. Detroit has the superior offense in this matchup as the Lions rank top 11 in total yards per game, yards per play and rushing yards per game. They also rank 5th in passing yards and 8th in completion percentage. The Raiders aren’t great at stopping the run so expect the Lions to focus on that aspect of their offense. We don’t expect the Lions to put QB Goff in jeopardy with Raider’s edge rusher Maxx Crosby (6.5 sacks) on the field which will limit explosive plays by Detroit. Las Vegas is scoring just 16PPG and only one of their games this season has finished with more points than this total. Detroit games have finished with less than 46 total points in four of their seven games. |
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10-29-23 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 46 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
#271/272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - These 2 played a few weeks ago in KC and the final score was Chiefs 19, Broncos 8. We see a similar type game on Sunday. Bad weather is expected in Denver with high probability of snow and high temps in the 20’s. Not great for a solid offensive output. In their game on October 12th neither team lit it up offensively with KC putting up 389 total yards and Denver just 197. The KC defense has been high level this season not allowing a single opponent to top 21 points. They rank in the top 10 in total defense and YPP allowed and they are giving up only 15 PPG (2nd in the NFL). Their overall defense ranks 5th DVOA and 6th EPA. They’ll be facing a Denver offense that has scored 21 or less in 5 of their 7 games this season. Their last 2 games the Broncos have scored 27 total points vs KC & Green Bay. The Denver defense ranks dead last in many categories, however much of that is skewed due to their game @ Miami where they allowed 70 points, over 700 total yards, and 10.2 YPP. If we subtract their game vs Miami, the Broncos are allowing 24 PPG which is much better than their current number of 31 PPG allowed. They are trending up as well allowing 36 total points in the last 2 games vs KC & GB. We don’t expect many offensive snaps here with 2 of the slower paced teams in the NFL – KC ranks 25th in plays per second and Denver 23rd. Under is the play. |
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10-27-23 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers UNDER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
#941/942 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Friday at 8:07 PM ET - The Rangers have a retractable roof ballpark. That helps with the brutal summers in Texas to keep the heat out. Also, when the roof is open, the Rangers have hit much better. That is why Astros manager Dusty Baker was mad during the ALCS when a decision was made for the roof to be open when he had been told it would not be. It turned out not to matter to the Astros as they won every game in Arlington in the series and the Rangers won every game in Houston. However, the point as it relates to run totals is that this ballpark has been proven to be less hitter-friendly when the roof is closed. The expectation here, due to rain in the area tonight, is that the roof will be closed. Couple that with two teams that do not see each other much in regular seasons plus the jitters of a Game 1 World Series match-up for two teams not usually in the showcase event and you have a great set-up for a light-hitting Game 1. Also, the bullpens for each of these teams got the job done well when called upon in their prior series and then, on top of that, you have a great starting pitching match-up here in Game 1. Zac Gallen struggled a bit with the Phillies but, even including those stats, he has allowed an average of just 2.5 runs per start in his last 6 starts overall. The Rangers Nathan Eovaldi has been great and is 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA in this post-season. He also is coming off a 12-5 regular season in which he produced a 3.63 ERA. Our computer math model is projecting 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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10-26-23 | Bucs v. Bills UNDER 43.5 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
#109/110 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 43.5 or 44 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Buffalo Bills, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 teams have combined to play 13 games this season and only 4 of those have gone Over the total. We expect another low scoring game on Thursday night. Tampa games are averaging just 34 total points this season and Buffalo games are averaging 45 total points. The Bucs offense has been below average all season long ranking 23rd or lower in total offense, scoring offense, and YPP average. They have scored 13 points or fewer in 3 of their last 4 games. We expect them to struggle vs a Buffalo defense that entered last week’s game vs New England ranked 12th in total defense but played poorly. They allowed a poor New England offense to average over 6.6 YPP and score 29 points. It was the worst performance from a Buffalo defense that has been solid for the most part all season including holding a dynamic Miami offense to just 20 points. We expect them to play with a chip on their shoulder on that side of the ball Thursday night. The Bills offense has been trending down since their win over Miami. Since scoring 48 vs the Fins, this offense has put up 20, 14, and 25 points the last 3 weeks. Even last week when they scored 25 points, 2 of those TD’s came on their final 2 possessions of the game when they were playing catch up. Prior to their final 2 offensive possessions, the Bills had 10 points and only 230 total yards. They’ve be facing a decent Tampa defense that’s rated higher than 2 of Buffalo’s last 3 opponents. The Bills are one of the slowest paced teams in the NFL, 30th in plays per second, and TB ranks middle of the pack in that category. NFL prime time Unders (Sunday night, Monday night, and Thursday night games) have been fantastic with a 133-85-4 spanning the last 5+ years (61% Unders). It looks a bit windy in Buffalo on Thursday evening with sustained winds around 10 MPH and gusts up to 20 MPH. Under is the play on Thursday. |
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10-26-23 | Georgia State v. Georgia Southern OVER 63.5 | Top | 27-44 | Win | 100 | 42 h 46 m | Show |
#113/114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 63.5 Points – Georgia State vs Georgia Southern, Thursday at 7 PM ET - When these 2 met last season, they total was 67.5 and they scored 74 points on nearly 1,000 total yards of offense. We look for a similar situation on Thursday night. Georgia Southern has been very solid offensively this season averaging 32 PPG but even better at home where they put up 40 PPG on 6.0 YPP. The Eagles are a fast paced team (22nd in the country) and they average a whopping 81 plays per game which is 2nd in the nation. Their strength on offense is throwing the ball with their QB Brin who has already thrown for 2100 yards on the season. They rank 12th nationally averaging 313 YPG passing and that plays directly into the weakness off the Georgia State defense which ranks 122nd in pass defense. Georgia State is more balanced but very solid running the ball (177 YPG) as well as passing (233 YPG) with veteran QB Grainger running the show. The Panthers are coming off a lower scoring game vs Louisiana as they upset the Rajin’ Cajuns 20-17. That final has kept this total lower than it should be in our opinion. Their total in last week’s game was set at 62 as well despite the fact that when comparing Louisiana to this week’s opponent (Georgia Southern) the Cajuns rank lower in total offense and higher in total defense along with being a much slower paced team. The only other game that Georgia State struggled offensively was vs Troy who’s defense ranks 8th in the nation. The Panthers scored at least 30 points in each of their other 5 games this season. We look for a high possession, fast paced game here similar to last year when the 2 teams ran 79 and 77 offensive snaps. The weather looks perfect in Statesboro with temps in the upper 50’s and light winds under 5 MPH. High scoring here. |
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10-24-23 | Hurricanes v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
#7/8 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals (-110) - Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Lightning simply are not the same team without goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. He is currently on long-term injured reserve after having back surgery last month. Without Vasilevskiy, the Lightning have already shown a strong trend toward overs this season. It makes sense as their goalie options without him are Jonas Johansson and Matt Tomkins. The Bolts have a goals against average of 4.00 on the season and the Lightning have just 2 wins in 6 games so far. Tampa Bay has scored quite well though and this is particularly true on home ice where they are averaging 4 goals scored per game this season. Overall, 5 of 6 Tampa Bay games have totaled at least 7 goals and the only one that did not was against a Sabres team that has now seen 5 of its 6 games finish under the total this season. Now the Lightning take on a goal-happy Hurricanes team. Indeed Carolina is scoring at a high rate this season as well. The problem for the Canes is they are also conceding goals at a high rate too. This is why all 6 of the Hurricanes games this season have gone over the total! The crazy thing is that Carolina's games are not just going over the total, they are truly flying over the total with authority! Their 6 games have averaged 9.5 goals in regulation time and there is certainly nothing "average" about NHL games averaging 9.5 goals apiece! Look for the high-scoring trend to continue here. We are aware of the Hurricanes having some injury issues but one of those is goalie Frederik Andersen and, even if he plays, he would be rusty here and not 100%! Also, just like the other two Canes goalies this season, Andersen has not been impressive between the pipes. Over is our play here. |
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10-22-23 | Packers v. Broncos OVER 45 | Top | 17-19 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
#469/470 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 45 Points – Green Bay Packers vs Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Both teams have had extra time to prepare, Green Bay off a bye and Denver played on Thursday night, and we expect both offenses to click. The Broncos defense is historically poor to this point in the season ranking dead last in scoring defense, total defense, and YPP allowed. Only 15% of drives vs this Denver defense have gone 3 and out which is by far the lowest in the league and they’ve allowed at least 28 points in 4 of their last 5 games. The Green Bay offense struggled in their most recent game vs Las Vegas, however coming off a bye they are getting healthy on that side of the ball. RB Jones is back, they are getting healthier on the Oline and at the WR position. Jones makes a huge difference in the run & pass game and in the 2 games he played this season, the Packers scored 58 total points. Offensively the Broncos have been solid this season. They are 5th in the NFL averaging 5.9 YPP and 4th putting up 4.9 YPC on the ground. Denver will have success on the ground vs a Green Bay defense that is allowing 143 YPG rushing and 42.5% of the yardage allowed by Green Bay has been via rushing, the highest rate in the league. Meanwhile the Denver rushing attack has been explosive ranking 2nd in the NFL in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (15.6%). That ground game will open up Russell Wilson and their passing attack. We’re getting perfect weather for this one with light winds, sunny, and temps in the low 70s. We like the match up for both offenses here and this one goes Over. |
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10-21-23 | Appalachian State v. Old Dominion OVER 55 | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
#353/354 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 55 Points - Appalachian State at Old Dominion, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We expect a high scoring game between these two Sun Belt schools. Last season when these same two teams met, they produced only 41-points, but they amassed 892 total yards with App State converting 7.8 yards per play, ODU was just under 6.0YPP. Neither defense is very good as Old Dominion ranks 89th in yards per point defense, App State is worse, ranking 98th. The Mountaineers really struggle to stop the run allowing 5.4 yards per rush (123rd) and they haven’t faced a rushing attack as good as this ODU’s. In fact, you could argue App State’s rush D is even worse than the number indicated as two of the offenses they’ve faced this season rank 94th or worse. Old Dominion is 19th in the country in rushing yards per attempt at 5.4 and should gouge this Neer’s defense overland. On the flip side, ODU struggles to stop the pass and Appalachian State is very capable of hitting big plays with their passing attack. App State is averaging 11.7 yards per completion and average 266.7 passing YPG. The Monarchs rank 114th in opponents’ completion percentage at 64.9%, 100th in completions and 86th in passing YPG allowed. Those numbers come against a soft schedule of teams that don’t pass well too. These offenses both rank top 50 in yards per play offensively and ODU is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation. App State isn’t slow either as they average a play run every 24.87 seconds which is 44th fastest. Easy call on the Over in this one. |
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10-20-23 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#911/912 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros, Friday at 5:07 PM ET - This is high-intensity playoff baseball now with this ALCS now tied up at 2 games apiece as the Astors have rallied from down 2-0 to take both the games here in Arlington to tie this series up. That makes this a very critical Game 5 match-up and you have the same pitchers involved that we saw in Game 1 of this series. That game was a 2-0 Rangers win and, in all likelihood, this will be another tight low-scoring battle here! Verlander and Montgomery were great in that Game 1 battle and we expect more of the same here. Again, you are talking about both lineups possibly being a little tight at the plate in this one. With the series tied up at 2, there is a lot of pressure with the importance of taking this Game 5 as it is a "swing game" in the series. The 3-2 series lead is so critical in a 7-game series. Off 3 straight games that have totaled at least 9 runs with the last two totaling 13 runs each. However, this total is set at 8.5 with good reason. These lineups combined for only 11 hits in Game 1 and we anticipate another pitchers duel here as both Verlander and Montgomery have looked great in their multiple outings in this post-season. Our computer math model projecting 6 to 7 runs here and even if it gets to 8 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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10-19-23 | James Madison v. Marshall OVER 49 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
#313/314 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 49 Points – James Madison vs Marshall, Thursday at 7 PM ET - JMU’s offense has been on a tear averaging 35 PPG on the season. If you take out their game vs a top notch Troy defense (16-14 final score), the Dukes have scored more than 30 in every other game with an average of 38 PPG. They should have big time success here vs a Marshall defense that has allowed 35, 48, and 41 points over their last 3 games and 2 of those opponents rank 84th (Old Dominion) and 109th (NC State) in total offense. The Herd defense put up solid numbers in their first 3 games of the season but their opponents were University of Albany (FCS), East Carolina (127th in scoring), and Virginia Tech (78th in scoring). Marshall is going to have to put points on the board to keep up in this game. We think they will. They are averaging 420 YPG and just over 30 PPG. The Herd offense is trending up with 106 points scored in their last 3 games (35 PPG) while averaging 447 total yards vs 3 defense that combined to allow an average of 380 YPG. Marshall’s strength offensively is throwing the ball averaging 265 YPG and completing almost 69% of their passes (21st nationally). They are facing a JMU defense who’s weakness is defending the pass allowing 310 YPG through the air which ranks them 129th out of 133 teams. Last week they “held” a potent Georgia Southern offense to 13 points, however the Eagles threw for over 300 yards but threw 3 interceptions in JMU territory including at the 15 and 23 yard line. GSU had plenty of opportunities to put points on the board. Marshall games are averaging 59 total points this season and JMU games are averaging 56 total points. This is set to low and we like the Over. |
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10-18-23 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9 Runs – Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros, Wednesday at 8:03 PM ET - The Astros Cristian Javier has great stuff when he is on and, though he issued some walks, his stuff looked great in his first start of this post-season against the Twins. This followed him finishing up the regular season with allowing just 4 earned runs in 15.2 innings.over his last 3 starts. Overall, Javier has now allowed only 10 hits in his last 20.2 innings on the mound! We also are looking for a strong start from Max Scherzer. Here you have a veteran hurler pitching at home and looking for redemption for his lone post-season start with the Mets last season being an ugly one. Also looking to redeem himself after his most recent appearance against the Astros was an ugly one after Scherzer had a stellar outing in his start against Houston that preceded that one. Scherzer is coming back from a minor shoulder injury here so he may not work deep but we like this Rangers bullpen to also shut the door at home after a little bit of shakiness in hanging on in the Rangers 5-4 win at Houston in Game 2 of this series. That game did reach 9 runs (which is also the posted total on this game) but 6 of the Astros last 9 road games have totaled 8 or less runs. Those 9 road games have actually averaged only 6.8 runs per game! The Rangers 10 of last 12 games have totaled 8 or less runs and those 10 games averaged only 5.5 runs per game. We feel we have some excellent line value here as this total is inflated due to the big runs that were scored in the last regular season series here between these teams which was last month and saw the Astros sweep with huge run totals. This is playoff baseball now and per all of the above this one will, in all likelihood, be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 6 to 7 runs here and even if it gets to 8 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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10-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
#971/972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 8:07 PM ET - Merrill Kelly expected to start for the Diamondbacks and he is coming off 6 innings of shutout ball against the Dodgers in the NL Wild Card round. Also, Kelly has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 10 of his last 13 starts! This looks like a pitchers duel because Aaron Nola has great stuff and the veteran Phillies hurler has looked like vintage Nola of late! Nola loves pitching at home and he enters this game already 2-0 in the post-season and he has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 straight starts overall. Also, the Phillies bullpen has been great in this post-season and the Dbacks bullpen also has been a pleasant surprise for Arizona fans so far in the playoffs. The reality is, the way these starting pitchers are going, neither team may need much bullpen here either! Overall, in terms of post-season trending so far, even though there were some bigger runs scored yesterday, if you look at all 3 ALCS/NLCS games so far they have averaged just 13 hits per game. So each team averaged about 6 or 7 hits per game. This one will, in all likelihood, be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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10-17-23 | Middle Tennessee State v. Liberty UNDER 57 | Top | 35-42 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
#301/302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 57 Points – Middle Tennessee State vs Liberty, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - MTSU has been facing all out passing teams as of late and that is their weakness defensively. 3 of their last 4 opponents are pass first offenses (CSU, La Tech, and WKY all rank 110th or lower in rush offense) while MTSU’s defense ranks outside the top 110 in pass defense. Now they face a Liberty offense that runs the ball more than pretty much anyone in the country. The Flames are 4th nationally in rush attempts per game and rushing play percentage. First of all that eats clock and secondly MTSU has been very solid vs the run. They are allowing 135 YPG rushing and only 3.9 YPC. Only 1 team has topped 200 yards on the ground vs the Blue Raider defense and that was Alabama in their season opener. They held SEC opponent Missouri to just 2.4 YPC and Jacksonville State (14th nationally in rushing) to only 3.6 YPC. Liberty will have success but we don’t think it will be easy. Offensively MTSU is not great to say the least. They rank 79th in YPP and 108th in scoring averaging only 22 PPG. Those numbers look even worse consider their last 5 opponents have been Murray State (FCS), Colorado State (131st in total defense), Western Kentucky (128th in total defense), Jacksonville St (67th in total defense), and La Tech (64th in total defense). Now they face a Liberty stop unit that ranks 18th nationally in total defense and 24th in YPP allowed. The Flames are giving up only 17 PPG and they’ve allowed just 35 total points their last 3 games. MTSU will struggle on offense in this one. Because they are primarily a running team, Liberty is very slow paced (117th in pace) as they like get ahead and control the tempo. That’s how we see this game playing out. Liberty games are averaging 53 total points per game and MTSU games are averaging 54 total points, both less than this current number. We see this game ending the high 40’s making Under the play. |
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10-14-23 | Boise State v. Colorado State OVER 60 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
#183/184 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 60 Points – Boise State vs Colorado State, Saturday at 9:45 PM ET - We were on CSU vs Utah State Over last week and while the Rams offense didn’t perform as we expected, their defense did. CSU allowed the Aggies to roll up 44 points on 639 total yards! That side of the ball will be another huge concern here vs a Boise offense that can be every bit as explosive as Utah State. The Broncos have now topped 30 points in 4 straight games and their QB rotation of Green (dangerous dual threat) and Madsen (solid passer) has been tough to defend the last 2 games alone putting up 67 total points and over 1,000 yards! Boise’s offense has been a thorn in CSU’s side to say the least scoring an average of 42.3 PPG over the last 10 meetings. We see a similar outcome on Saturday. The problem the Broncos have had is on the other side of the ball. Their defense stinks. They rank 132nd (out of 133) allowing opponents to average almost 7.0 YPP. They’re terrible defending the pass ranking 125th nationally which is a big problem here facing a CSU offense that averaged 352 YPG through the air (4th best in the country). Boise is allowing 34 PPG on the season including giving up 31 points on 439 total yards to a bad San Diego State offense that ranks 122nd in scoring and averages 16 PPG. The only team that didn’t reach at least 27 points on this defense was UCF who had 18 points but also ripped off 530 total yards of offense which would normally yield 35 points based on UCF’s yards per point numbers this season. The Rams offense had one of the worst performances last week at USU and the game still almost hit 70 total points. They only ran 52 offensive plays in the game (Utah State ran 84 plays) and turned the ball over 5 times. CSU had 17 points in the first quarter and either turned the ball over on downs or had a turnover on 4 of their final 5 possessions. Prior to last week the Rams has scored at least 30 points in 3 straight games and we expect them to top that again here. Weather looks good in Fort Collins for Saturday night and we expect both teams to get into the 30’s here. Take the Over. |
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10-14-23 | UCLA v. Oregon State UNDER 54.5 | Top | 24-36 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
#189/190 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 54.5 Points – UCLA vs Oregon State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The oddsmakers continue to set UCLA totals too high (4-1 Under this season) as this is not the offensive juggernaut and poor defensive team they’ve been the last few seasons. In fact, the Bruins are now the exact opposite. Defense is absolutely the strength of this team. UCLA’s stop unit ranks in the top 10 nationally in scoring defense, total defense, YPP allowed, rushing YPG allowed, and YPC allowed. They have not given up more than 17 points in any game this season and they’ve allowed a grand total of 5 offensive TD’s in 5 games this season! Last week they held a very potent Washington State, who came into the game averaging 40 PPG on 472 YPG, to just 10 offensive points on 216 total yards. Offensively the Bruins are breaking in a new freshman QB Moore and vs FBS teams this season they are only averaging 23 PPG, more than 2 full TD’s down from last year’s numbers. And this year’s numbers have come against 3 defenses ranked 91st, 92nd, and 117th in total defense. The only good defense UCLA has faced is Utah (ranked 22nd in total defense) and the Utes held them to 7 points. Saturday’s opponent, Oregon State, will be the 2nd best defense UCLA has faced this season at 39th nationally. Oregon State’s offense has had some high scoring outputs but similarly to UCLA, they haven’t played a great slate of defenses. They’ve faced just 1 stop unit ranked in the top 60 in total defense this season and that was Utah once again (ranked 22nd) and that game ended 21-7 in favor of Oregon State. With the spread at -3.5 to -4 in favor of the Beavers, the final projected score in this game is in the 29-25 range. We don’t see either team reaching those totals. Under here. |
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10-13-23 | Fresno State v. Utah State OVER 57 | Top | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 53 h 20 m | Show |
#179/180 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 57 Points – Fresno State vs Utah State, Friday at 8 PM ET - We were on the CSU vs Utah State Over last week and cashed nicely. We’re coming right back on the Over with USU at home again this week. The Aggies offense is humming right now to say the least. They put up 44 points last week on 639 total yards and were quite balanced doing it (387 yards passing / 252 yards rushing). In their last 3 games the USU offense has tallied 114 points (39 PPG) on nearly 1,600 total yards. Senior QB Legas, who began the season as the starter, stepped in for an injured Hillestad and has been outstanding with almost 600 yards passing and 7 TD’s in the last 6 quarters! They’re taking on a Fresno defense that’s not nearly as good as their overall numbers in our opinion. They rank in the top 15 in total defense but they’ve faced just an atrocious set of offenses to date. They’ve faced 4 FBS offenses this season that rank outside the top 95 in total offense including 3 that rank 110th or lower. That includes a Kent offense that ranks dead last nationally in many categories including total offense. The best FBS offense they’ve faced this season is Purdue (63rd in total offense) who hit them for 35 points. FCS Eastern Washington also had 30+ points on this defense. We look for USU to be successful putting points on the board. The Aggies will be the highest ranked offense Fresno has faced this season. Fresno’s offense should be successful as well. The Bulldogs had scored at least 27 points in every game this season prior to last week’s 19 point output vs a very good Wyoming defense that struggled with Texas & Texas Tech but has shut everyone else down. The USU defense ranks outside the top 100 allowing 33 PPG and they’ve allowed at least 24 points in every game this year including vs Iowa and UConn who rank 131st and 108th respectively in total offense. Because they are so potent offensively and struggle on defense USU games are averaging 70 total points this season. These teams have combined to play 12 games this season and 9 have gone Over the total and we expect another high scoring game on Friday Night. |
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10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 47 | Top | 8-19 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 47 Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 PM ET - This line opened 51 at some books and was quickly bet down to the current number. We will grab that added value and side with the Bookmakers number in this AFC West rivalry. Let’s start with the Broncos defense that has the worst statistical DVOA numbers in the HISTORY of the NFL. The Bronco give up over 450YPG (32nd), 7.2YPP (32nd), 187RYPG (30th) and 5.9-yards per rush (32nd). They allow opposing QB’s to complete 77.3% of their pass attempts, also last in the NFL, and give up 11.1 yards per competition. Now consider this. Those horrific overall numbers, but specifically passing stats come against four of five bad QB’s in: Sam Howell, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Jimmy Garappolo. Now they face Patrick Mahomes who is arguably the best QB in the game and a guy building a Hall of Fame resume. KC owns a top ranked offense in many statistical categories including: Yards Per Game, Yards Per Play, Rushing Yards per attempt etc… The Chiefs are averaging 25.6PPG, while the Broncos are allowing 36.2PPG. The Broncos are allowing 1 point scored per every 12.4 yards gained by opponents. Based on the fact KC averages 381YPG that translates to 30.7 points for the Chiefs. Denver is going to score here too. They average 328YPG but more importantly, 6.1YPP which rates 5th best in the NFL. They average 4.9 Yards per rush (4th) and are 13th in overall passing yards per game. They own the 10th highest scoring offense in the NFL at 24.2PPG and rank 7th best in Yards Per Point at 13.0. Last season these two teams combined for 51 and 64 total points in the two meetings. Bet this number before the line trends back up. |
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10-12-23 | SMU v. East Carolina UNDER 49.5 | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
#117/118 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 49.5 Points – SMU vs East Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - ECU’s offense is bad. They have not topped 14 offensive points in any game this season with the exception of their game vs FCS Gardner Webb. The Pirates did have 28 points vs App State, however 14 of those points came from defensive fumble returns for TD’s. Minus their game vs Gardner Webb, the Pirates are averaging just 4.2 YPP which ranks them 129th nationally out of 133 teams. They’ll be facing an SMU defense that has been very good this season allowing opponents to average only 4.9 YPP ranking them in the top 30. The only team that really played well vs SMU offensively was TCU who put up 34 points. Even when they faced Oklahoma, the Mustangs defense held the Sooners to 28 points and 365 total yards which was a season low in yardage for OU. We expect ECU to struggle again on offense. On the other side of the ball, SMU’s offense isn’t nearly as explosive as it was last season. They are averaging just 25 PPG vs FBS opponents after putting up 36 PPG last season. On a YPP basis the Stangs rank just 73rd averaging 5.3 after ranking in the top 35 last year at 5.9 YPP. ECU’s defense has at least been respectable, unlike their offense, ranking 72nd nationally allowing 387 YPG despite playing very good offenses Michigan & App State so far this season. ECU games have topped 50 total points only once in 5 games this season. SMU games have topped 52 points only once in 5 games this season. With SMU tabbed as a 12 point favorite the projected score is right around 31-19 range. We don’t see either team reaching those totals so we’ll go Under in this one. |
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10-11-23 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
#937/938 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 9:07 PM ET - Bradon Pfaadt got rocked by the Brewers at Milwaukee to open up his post-season. Pfaadt is a rookie that struggled quite often this season and that was particularly true against playoff-caliber teams. The Dodgers are one of the top teams in baseball even though down 2-0 in this series and they should hammer Pfaadt here just like they did in the regular season meetings with him. The good news for Diamondbacks fans here is that Arizona has been swinging hot bats and should match LA run for run in this one. The Diamondbacks have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in winning all 4 games this post-season. The Dodgers are starting Lance Lynn and the veteran has post-season experience of course but he is just not the same pitcher he once was. Lynn was rejuvenated by coming to the Dodgers from the White Sox soon after the All Star break. However, his ERA went back up in September compared to August and walks and homers were an issue. Now he faces a red hot Arizona lineup that is loaded with confidence. Lynn gave up 26 homers in his 16 road starts this season and that includes 6 in his most recent 3 road starts for the Dodgers. Overall, Lynn was rocked in 2 of his last 3 road starts. Also, his last 2 starts against teams that ended up making the post-season - Marlins and Braves - saw him allow a combined 15 earned runs in 9 innings! The Dbacks will stay hot at the plate here but the Dodgers are in do or die mode and have the confidence of having already given Pfaadt a lot of trouble this season and the rookie struggles again here. Our computer math models are expecting this one to finish with more than a dozen runs in most projections. Over is the call in this late evening match-up Wednesday |
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10-09-23 | Packers v. Raiders OVER 45 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
#475/476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 45 Points – Green Bay Packers vs Las Vegas Raiders, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Jimmy Garoppolo is back under center for the Raiders and we like this to be a higher scoring game. Last week the Raiders were poor offensively averaging only 3.8 YPP vs the Chargers, however Garoppolo sat with a concussion and rookie QB O’Connell was in over his head in his first career action. With Garoppolo at QB the first 3 games the Raiders averaged 5.4 YPP which is a huge upgrade from O’Connell’s performance last week. Las Vegas has struggled to score points at times this season, however much of that is due to turnovers. They have a -9 turnover margin which is worst in the NFL and that has led to them running the 4th fewest offensive snaps in the league this year. That has led directly to their lower scoring numbers. If they can take care of the ball here, they should be successful vs a Packers defense that ranks 20th in the league allowing 24 PPG. That’s despite facing to of the worst 7 offenses in the NFL on a YPP basis (Saints and Falcons). The GB offense is starting to play well under new QB Love. They’ve scored at least 20 points in every game but 1 this season and that was vs the Saints who rank in the top 10 in a number of key defensive categories. The Packers scored 18 in that game. They’ve been very efficient offensively scoring 1 point for every 11 yards gained which is #1 in the NFL. That should continue vs a Las Vegas defense that ranks 20th or lower in total defense, scoring defense, YPP allowed, and 3rd down efficiency. The Raiders have now allowed 20 or more points in 19 of their last 23 games. Perfect scoring conditions on Monday night at Allegiant Stadium we expect this one to go Over the total. |
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10-07-23 | Colorado State v. Utah State OVER 62 | Top | 24-44 | Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
#371/372 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 62 Points – Colorado State vs Utah State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Two very fast paced teams here so we’ll have plenty of opportunities on offense. USU ranks 6th nationally in seconds per play and CSU ranks 11th in that category. Both average over 70 offensive plays per game and on the other side of the ball both defenses rank in the top 30 in opponent offensive plays per game with USU allowing 73 opponent snaps per game and CSU allowing 84! So we know we’ll be looking at a lot of offensive snaps here and we have no doubt both teams will be very successful on that side of the ball. The Aggies have been very good offensively with the exception of their games vs Air Force & Iowa, 2 of the top defenses in the country. In their other 3 games they’ve scored 78, 38, and 34 points and now they face a Colorado State defense that ranks 125th in total defense allowing 40+ points in 2 of their 4 games. The Aggies did lose their starting QB Hillstead last week but he is a freshman and was not the starter at the beginning of the season. Their backup QB Legas was the starter for the first 2 games this year, is a senior, was last year’s starter, and has thrown for 600 yards this season. He came in last week for an injured Hillstead and threw for over 200 yards and 3 TD’s in less than one half of play. On the flip side, CSU averages 6.6 YPP (top 30 nationally) and they’ve scored 30+ in 3 of their 4 games this season. The Rams are facing a Utah State defense that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense as well. Both teams air it out and neither runs the ball much. CSU ranks 4th nationally in pass attempts per game and 3rd in YPG through the air while averaging only 26 carries per game (128th). USU ranks 19th in pass attempts per game and 35th in YPG passing while only averaging 30 carries per game (111th). On the defensive side the Rams rank 132nd out of 133 teams in pass defense and Utah State ranks 94th in that stat so we don’t look for either offense to change their style here. Offensive strengths playing directly into defensive weaknesses for both teams. Colorado State games are averaging 60 PPG this season and they’ve topped 60 total points in 3 of their 4 games. Utah State games are averaging 71 total points this season and EVERY team they’ve played has been slow paced, all ranked outside the top 90 in seconds per play. These teams have played 9 combined games this season with 7 going Over the total. Both easily get into the 30’s here and we wouldn’t be at all shocked if both push 40 or higher. Weather looks perfect for this game in Logan Utah and we look for LOTS of scoring. |
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10-07-23 | Kent State v. Ohio UNDER 45.5 | 17-42 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 10 m | Show | |
#355/356 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 45.5 Points – Kent State vs Ohio, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Ohio’s defense has been outstanding this year ranking 12th nationally allowing just 4.3 YPP. The Bobcats have played 5 games this season and allowed 7, 7, 10, 10 and 20 points in those games. On Saturday they face a Kent offense that has been brutal this year scoring 3, 6, 6, and 10 points in their 4 games vs FBS opponents and they rank dead last (133rd) averaging 3.4 YPP. The Golden Flashes have scored a grand total of ONE TD in their 4 FBS games. Ohio isn’t much better offensive ranking 113th averaging 4.6 YPP. We’re confident Kent will do very little on offense vs this high level Ohio defense. So how will the Kent defense stack up vs the Bobcats? Their defense has actually be solid with the exception of 2 games this year vs UCF and Fresno State, two top 25 scoring offenses. Ohio’s offense is nowhere near the level of those two offenses. Versus their other 3 opponents, Kent allowed 10, 23, and 28 points. Facing a solid SEC team @ Arkansas, the Razors scored only 21 offensive points on 308 total yards. We anticipate Ohio getting a lead here and then slowing the pace keeping the clock running with their rushing attack (38 rushing attempts per game – 36th nationally) and grinding out a win. Speaking of pace, both of these MAC teams play very slow with Ohio ranking 119th in plays per second and Kent ranking 80th. The spread and total suggest a 35-10 type final and we don’t see either team getting to those numbers. Under here. |
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10-05-23 | Bears v. Commanders OVER 44 | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
#305/306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44 Points – Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bears defense is among the worst in the NFL and has been for the last few years. They have now allowed 25 or more points in 14 straight games dating back to last season. Chicago ranks 29th in YPP allowed (6.2), 31st in scoring defense (34 PPG), 32nd in Yards Per Completion, 31st in Yards Per Pass Attempt, and 31st in opposing quarterbacks QBR. Washington QB Howell has been improving each week and last Sunday he completed over 70% of his passes for 290 yards vs a very good Philadelphia defense. He should have a field day on Sunday. The Chicago offense broke out last week with 28 points on 6.7 YPP and QB Fields was 28 of 35 for 335 yards and 4 TD’s. They are facing a Washington defense that ranks 29th allowing 30 PPG which is a full TD more than the league average. The Commanders have allowed 30+ in each of their last 3 games. They are especially susceptible vs the run allowing 4.5 Yards Per Rush (26th) and 122.5RYPG (21st). That plays into one of Chicago’s strengths as they rank 5th in Yards Per Rush at 4.7 and 13th in overall rushing YPG. The weather looks perfect in DC on Thursday night with temps in the low 70’s, no precipitation, and very light winds. Both offenses should thrive here and we’ll grab the Over. |
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10-04-23 | Blue Jays v. Twins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
#955/956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 4:38 PM ET - Yesterday 3 of the 4 Wild Card match-ups finished under the total and this one was the most dominating under of the bunch as neither team topped 6 hits! We expect a repeat of something similar in terms of the final result here in Game 2 Wednesday. Jose Berrios the expected starter for the Blue Jays and he went 4-0 with a 2.44 ERA in his 8 day game starts this season! Also, in terms of current form, Berrios is coming off a strong September in which he held opponents to a .220 batting average while walking only 6 and striking out 38 in his 32 innings over his 5 starts for the month. Berrios spent his first 5 and 1/2 seasons in the bigs with the Twins and will look to take advantage of this opportunity today against the team that drafted him. He is a veteran with playoff experience and the same holds true for Sonny Gray of the Twins. The Minnesota right-hander also dominated afternoon action and also is coming into this outing in top form. Gray went 5-2 with a 1.80 ERA in his 13 day game starts this season and opponents hit just .185 against him! In the month of September he had a 2.00 ERA and in the month of August he had a 2.04 ERA! These are a pair of solid bullpens too and, the way these starters are going (and the bats were quiet yesterday), the bullpens may not be needed much anyway in what shapes up to be another pitchers' duel here. This one will, in all likelihood, be another tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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10-01-23 | Patriots v. Cowboys UNDER 43.5 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 46 m | Show |
#273/274 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5 Points – New England Patriots vs Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both teams in this one. Dallas was lights out their first 2 games allowing 10 total points but had a letdown last week @ Arizona. After that poor performance we expect them to be very motivated at home in this one. The Boys are allowing only 4.8 YPP on the season and teams are averaging only 25 yards per drive which is 3rd best defensive mark in the NFL. They are facing a pedestrian New England offense that hasn’t scored more than 20 points in any game yet this season. Against a similar high level defense last week, the Pats scored only 13 offensive points (vs Jets). New England is NOT explosive offense with only 1.4% of their offensive snaps gaining 20 yards or more – worst in the league. Defensively New England has been very good. They held the potent Miami attack to just 24 points – Fins scored 36 and 70 in their other 2 games. For the season, including the Miami game, the Patriots are allowing only 4.4 YPP which is 4th best in the NFL. Only 18% of opponents drives have reached the redzone or score prior to that vs New England’s defense. That’s the 2nd best rate in the NFL. Belichick knows defense, no doubt about that. Our projections have this as a low scoring game and we’ll grab the Under here. |
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09-30-23 | South Carolina v. Tennessee OVER 59.5 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
#137/138 ASA PLAY ON Over 59.5 Points – South Carolina vs Tennessee, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - FAST! That’s what this game is going to be like with more than the normal number of possessions for both teams. Tennessee is the 2nd fastest paced team in college football with a play run every 19.8 seconds. South Carolina prefers to play fast also with the 19th fastest paced offense. The Vols run 73 plays per game, SC runs 70.3 which are both more than average in college football. Last year when these two teams met, they produced 101 total points and over 1,100 total yards of offense. The Gamecocks offense with QB Rattler can move the chains as evidenced by their 8th ranked passing offense averaging 340PYPG. He is completing 73.4% of his pass attempts at a 9.8 yards/attempt clip and owns the 15th best QB rating in college football. Tennessee has impressive pass defense statistics, but they haven’t faced a team that ranks higher than 50th in passing yards per game. The Vols are going to put up points in this game against a suspect Gamecocks defense. SoutH Carolina just gave up 30-points to Mississippi State and over 500-total yards of offense to the Bulldogs. The week before they gave up just 24-points to Georgia which was misleading considering the Dawgs had 470-total yards of offense. Tennessee is 24th in YPG, 31st in YPP at 6.6 and average 35PPG. The Vols tend to score more at home as they average 45PPG at home since 2021 and last season they scored 53.7PPG at home. This game has a shootout written all over it. |
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09-30-23 | Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 45.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 59 m | Show | |
#191/192 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 45.5 Points – Georgia vs Auburn, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Neither offense is peaking right now in our opinion. Auburn’s offense has been brutal in their 2 games vs Power 5 teams this season. Versus Cal they scored only 14 points and vs Texas A&M it was just 10 points. Facing those 2 teams, the Tigers had a total of 430 yards (in both games combined) on just 3.5 YPP. The Auburn QB Thorne, transfer from Michigan State who wasn’t good with the Spartans, has thrown for 138 total yards in those 2 games. That won’t get it done here vs the best defense he’s played and a team that’s held Auburn to 14 points or less in each of the last 6 meetings. UGA is still breaking in a new QB Carson Beck and a different system under new OC Bobo. They’ve put up some big points but they’ve faced mainly poor defenses including UAB (130th in total defense), South Carolina (122nd) and Ball State (102nd in total defense). The only SEC defense they’ve faced, and not a great one at that, was South Carolina who held the Bulldogs to 24 points. UGA only had 3 points at halftime in that game and Auburn will easily be the best stop unit they’ve faced (32nd in total defense). It’s also Georgia’s first road game which will make it tough for the offense to play at a peak level. As good as the Bulldogs offense has been over the last 4 or 5 seasons, they’ve averaged just 24 PPG their last 5 trips to Auburn. The last 10 times these SEC rivals have met, they totaled 44 points or fewer 8 times. We see another low scoring game here and we grab the Under. |
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09-29-23 | Cincinnati v. BYU UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-35 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 37 m | Show |
#119/120 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 48.5 Points – Cincinnati vs BYU, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - BYU held their first 2 opponents to 16 combined points and it looks like they may have regressed allowing 31 and 38 points in their last 2 games vs Arkansas and Kansas. Not the case in our opinion. A closer look reveals they only gave up 24 offensive points in each of those 2 games vs high level offenses. KU last week scored 2 defensive TD’s and was held to just 351 total yards by this BYU defense. A week earlier Arkansas had an 88 yard punt return in the box score. We expect defensive success here for BYU vs a Cincinnati offense that has scored 30 total points in their last 2 games vs Miami OH & Oklahoma. If we subtract their 66 point effort vs FCS Eastern Kentucky, the Bearcats are averaging just 19 PPG under their new head coach Satterfield and new OC Brendel who came over from Va Tech who finished 118th in scoring last season. So while we feel BYU will have the edge when Cincy has the ball, we feel the Bearcats will have the same advantage when they are on defense. BYU’s offense averages just 4.5 YPP (109th nationally) this season vs their 3 FBS teams they’ve faced. While it looks like their offense has lit it up the last 2 weeks scoring 38 points vs Arkansas and 31 vs Kansas, the fact is they had 280 total yards vs the Razors and 366 vs KU. They were extremely fortunate to score the points they did based on their offensive yardage output. They face a solid Cincy defense that has allowed 21 points or less in 3 of their 4 games including holding Oklahoma to 20 points last Saturday. That’s an Oklahoma offense that averaged 58 PPG in their first 3 games of the season. Neither offense is fast paced (both middle of the pack in seconds per play) both struggle to convert on 3rd downs (both outside the top 90) which makes it difficult to extend drives. We like the Under here on Friday Night. |
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09-28-23 | Jacksonville State v. Sam Houston State UNDER 36.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -109 | 40 h 43 m | Show |
#107/108 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 36.5 Points – Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston State, Thursday at 8 PM ET - We realize this total is very low for a college game but it’s warranted in our opinion. Sam Houston State’s offense is bad and there is no other way around that. They have scored a total of 10 points in 3 games this year and they rank dead last in CFB in total offense averaging just 148 YPG. Yes you read that correctly. The Bearkats have 24 total first downs in 3 games. We don’t look for a turnaround here as they are facing a JSU defense that ranks in the top 20 nationally in YPP allowed and shut out Eastern Michigan 21-0 last week. The Gamecock defense has held 3 of their 4 opponents this year to 14 points or fewer. The Sam Houston State defense did give up 38 points last week to a potent Houston offense, however prior to that they held BYU to 14 points and Air Force to 13 points in their first 2 games. To put those SHSU defensive efforts into perspective, Air Force has scored 49, 45, and 32 in their other 3 games while BYU scored 41, 31, and 27 vs their 3 other opponents. While Jacksonville State’s offense is better than Sam Houston’s not existent offense, the Gamecocks are far from a juggernaut scoring 17, 16, and 21 points in their 3 games vs FBS opponents. Looking even deeper, those 3 opponents currently rank 76th, 96th, and 106th in total defense vs FBS opponent so it’s not as if JSU has played a gauntlet of great defenses. Neither team has a potent passing attack as they rank 129th and 124th in YPG passing and both love to run the ball which eats clock. JSU is 4-0 to the Under this year by an average of almost 19 PPG. SHSU is 2-1 to the Under this year. The projected final score here based on the total and the line (JSU -6.5) is 22-15 and we don’t see either team getting to those numbers. Under is the play. |
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09-25-23 | Eagles v. Bucs OVER 44.5 | 25-11 | Loss | -111 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON #477/478 OVER 44.5 Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7:15 PM ET - It’s become very clear in two games that the injuries to the Eagles defense have had a much bigger impact than anticipated. Without several starters in the secondary the Eagles have allowed 326 passing yards per game which is 31st in the league. They give up 9.9YDS per pass completion (18th) and rank 21st in completion percentage allowed at 67.35%. The Buccaneers have gotten off to a 2-0 start with QB Baker Mayfield under center. Mayfield has played very well in the Bucs system with a 69.1% completion rate for 490 total yards with 3 TD’s and 0 INT’s. Tampa Bay has some explosive WR’s in Godwin and Evans who should get some great opportunities against this Eagles secondary. The Eagles do have one of the better offenses in the NFL again this season and have put up 25 and 34-points in two games. They are averaging 1-point scored every 11.5 yards gained which is 4th best in the NFL. Last year in that same category they ranked 2nd overall at 13.3YPPT. Going back to the start of last season, games involving the Eagles have finished with 45+ points 14 times. Tampa Bay is 13th in total YPG, 23rd in yards per play and 9th in passing yards per game. The 23.5PPG averaged by the Bucs is about league average (16th). We don’t need anything extravagant to happen in this game to cash an Over ticket. We just need an ‘average’ game by both teams. We lean to the Over here. |
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09-24-23 | Cowboys v. Cardinals UNDER 43 | Top | 16-28 | Loss | -109 | 63 h 49 m | Show |
#471/472 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 43 Points - Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - In Week #1 of the NFL season the Unders were 12-4. In Week #2 the Overs came in with a 13-3 record. The oddsmakers have adjusted their numbers up on this game and we will bet contrarian with an Under wager. The Cowboy’s defense is ‘that’ good! They have given up 10 total points this season and the touchdown allowed was a 68-yard play to the Jets last week. Ask yourself this, would you be surprised if the Cardinals didn’t score here? We wouldn’t. Dallas held the Giants offense to 171-total yards in the opener, then held the Jets to 215 last week with 68 coming on one long TD pass. Take that 1 TD play away last week and the Cowboys allowed just 3.4YPPL. In Week #1 the Cowboys put up 40-points but two scores came by special teams and the defense. Last week against the Jets, the Cowboys (McCarthy) went ultra conservative in the 2nd half with 4 field goals. Dallas has averaged just 4.7YPP which ranks 24th in the league. Arizona is averaging 5.0YPP offensively which is 21st. Both teams average abnormally high Yards Per Points offensively, but we expect a regression in those numbers. Dallas now has two weeks of film on Cards QB Dobbs and will have a gameplan in place to pressure the unproven QB. The pace of play clearly favors a lower scoring contest as the Cardinals are 27th in pace with a play run every 30.1 seconds. Dallas is nearly as slow (25th) at a play run every 29.9 seconds. With the potential of Arizona scoring 10 or less points, and the Cowboys conservative play calling we like Under the total. |
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09-24-23 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 44 | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 59 h 27 m | Show |
#455/456 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 44 Points - Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The first aspect we like about this game is the fact that both teams prefer to play fast, which leads to more plays/possessions per game and potentially more scoring opportunities. The Jags are 12th in play per second at 27.9, the Texans are 5th at 25.5 seconds p/play. After putting up 31-points in their opener, the Jags managed just 9-points last week against a very good Kansas City defense that had Chris Jones back in the lineup. Jacksonville had three potential TD drives that turned into FG’s when receivers didn’t get their feet down inbounds in the endzone. The Jags were 9th in scoring a year ago at 23.9PPG and 12th in Yards Per Points offensively at 15.0. The low scoring output last week was not a true indicator of this offensive unit, and we are betting they bounce back here, especially against this Texans defense. Houston is giving up 28 PPG and just allowed 31 to a Colts team with a rookie QB making his first start on the road. The Colts averaged 6.3 Yards Per Play against this Texans D after averaging just 4.8YPP a year ago (31st). Houston may have found their QB of the future with CJ Stroud who played extremely well last week against Indianapolis. Stroud was 30/47 for 384 passing yards with 2 TD’s. The Texans converted 9 of 19 3rd downs and managed 24 first downs in the game despite losing. The average total points scored in an NFL game this season is 45.4PPG. This game will not be less than average. |
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09-23-23 | Ohio v. Bowling Green UNDER 44.5 | Top | 38-7 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 40 m | Show |
#377/378 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points – Ohio vs Bowling Green, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Ohio’s defense has been lights out this season holding their 4 opponents to a combined 47 total points. If we subtract defensive TD’s, they’ve allowed 40 total points or just 10 PPG. Last week vs Big 12 Iowa State they allowed 7 points on a TD with 4:00 minutes to go in the game and ISU had just 38 yards rushing on 1.7 YPC. They rank to 15 nationally in total defense and top 25 in yards per point allowed. The Ohio offense leaves a lot to be desired. They are slow paced (92nd in plays per second) and if we subtract their 27 point “outburst” vs FCS Long Island, they’ve scored 13, 17, and 10 points. The Bobcats rank 115th in YPP offensive efficiency averaging only 4.3 YPP despite facing defenses that allow 6.4, 5.1 and 4.0 YPP. Bowling Green has an offense that is struggling and they’ve slowed their pace this season. Their offense is dead even with Ohio’s averaging only 4.3 YPP this season and after ranking 84th in plays per second last season they’ve dropped to 126th in that stat this season. Their defense isn’t great but they’ve improved allowing 350 YPG vs FBS opponents this year (Liberty & Michigan) after allowing 418 YPG last season. Last week they held a very good Michigan offense to just 312 total yards. This one shapes up to be a low scoring, grinder. Under is the play. |
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09-22-23 | Rockies v. Cubs OVER 9 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
#951/952 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs, Friday at 2:20 PM ET - The Rockies are expected to start Noah Davis but whether he starts or whatever opener Colorado uses, we are not overly concerned with the pitching match-up here and will go action on pitchers. That's because the Rockies bullpen has been one of the worst in the league this season and the Cubs bullpen has also had some recent struggles. As for Davis, he has a 9.97 ERA in his 7 MLB appearances (4 starts) in his young career. The Cubs are expected to go with Jameson Taillon as their starter here. He is 1-7 with a 6.86 ERA in his day game appearances this season. Day games at Wrigley Field, even when the wind is more side to side rather than blowing out, do tend to be higher scoring and we like the pattern for the Cubs entering this one as well. Coming off an 8-6 loss to the Pirates yesterday, Chicago is mired in a 1-7 slump but 7 of the 8 games have totaled at least 10 runs! The Cubs are 2-2 last 4 home games and have averaged scoring 8 runs in that stretch. However, Chicago also has allowed an average of 7 runs per game over the last 8 games. The Rockies bats struggled some in their recent series at San Diego but that park is not exactly the most hitter-friendly in the league and the Padres have some tough pitchers. Before a quiet final two games in that series, the Rockies had scored an average of 7 runs in a solid 5-2 stretch over their 7 games before the two duds. Look for their bats to wake up again after yesterday's off-day and now playing in a hitter-friendly venue! Our computer math models are expecting this one to finish with double digits in runs in most projections. Over is the call in this early afternoon match-up Friday. |
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09-17-23 | Dolphins v. Patriots UNDER 46.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 26 m | Show |
#287/288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 46.5 Points - Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Our words of advice for Week #2 in the NFL are to not overreact to Week #1’s results. Miami is coming off a really high scoring game against the Chargers with 70-total points. New England is coming off a 45-point total against the Eagles. Those results have driven the O/U number up for this AFC East rivalry which puts us squarely on the Under. Miami averaged a ridiculous 8.2-Yards Per Play last week against the Chargers after averaging 6.0 YPP last season. That was against a bad Chargers defense that ranked 21st in YPP D a year ago. New England just held a Philadelphia offense to 4.1 YPP after the Eagles averaged 5.8 YPP a season ago. Last season the Fish averaged 23.8 PPG (11th) and allowed 24.1 PPG. (24th). New England scored 21.4 PPG (16th) and gave up 20.4 PPG (11th). Miami scored 30+ points themselves six times last season but four of those games came against the Bears, Lions, Texans and Browns who all ranked 19th or worse in PPG allowed. In games involving the Patriots last season only 6 games (in regulation) finished with more than 46.5 total points. The Pats offense scored more than 26-points just three times. These two rivals have combined for more than this O/U number 1 time in the last six meetings and three times in the last ten. New England coach Belichick just watched L.A. pound out over 230 rushing yards and will take a conservative approach in this game with a run first mentality. |
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09-15-23 | Army v. UTSA UNDER 45 | Top | 37-29 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 1 m | Show |
#111/112 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 45 Points – Army vs UTSA, Friday at 7 PM ET - Last year UTSA’s offense was the strength of their team, this year it’s definitely been the defense. The offense has struggled with a new offensive coordinator scoring only 37 points combined in their 2 games. Defensively they’ve allowed only 30 points on the season in 2 games and their run defense has been fantastic allowing only 2 YPC which will come in handy vs Army on Thursday. The Cadets also have a new offensive coordinator and while they are trying to throw the ball more often (27 pass attempts in 2 games) the fact is they don’t have the personnel to be very successful through the air and they are still a heavy run team (50 rush attempts per game – 5th nationally). Army continues to be a very slow paced team as well averaging only 1 play every 34 seconds which is the 3rd slowest pace in the nation so far this season. If we throw out last week’s result when they faced a bad FCS team (Delaware State), Army scored only 13 points vs UL Monroe and their only TD in that game was scored by their defense. That was facing a ULM defense that ranked 108th last season in total defense. On the other side of the ball, the Cadets only allowed 17 points in that game vs ULM with both Warhawk TD’s coming in the final 6:00 minutes of the game. UTSA has faced the Army offense 3 of the last 4 seasons, including holding the Cadets to 3.2 YPC last season, so they know how to defend it. Last year was a high scoring game in OT, however the previous 2 totaled 42 and 44 points. We like this one to stay Under the total. |
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09-14-23 | Rays v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
#961/962 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 8.5 Runs – Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays, Thursday at 7:15 PM ET - This a key divisional battle with these two teams battling it out for the AL East title. The Rays beat the Twins yesterday at Minnesota and the Orioles lost 1-0 at home to the Cardinals. This has tightened the race even further. Those two games yesterday saw an average of only 5 hits per team and another light-hitting game here is likely given the high stakes of this match-up plus the fact two quality starting pitchers are involved. Also, these are two of the better bullpens in MLB too. As for the starters, Aaron Civale and Kyle Bradish are the ones expected to get the call in this one for their respective clubs. The Rays Civale is 4-2 with a 2.03 ERA on the road this season and 5-1 with a 2.29 ERA in night games this season. He is 5-1 with an ERA hovering near the 3.00 level since the start of July. Civale should match the Orioles Bradish here in terms of producing a quality start again. Bradish has a 2.26 ERA in home games. He is 6-2 with a 2.63 ERA since the All star break and Bradish has held hitters to a .197 batting average since then. Both pitchers have remained strong overall in the 2nd half of the MLB season and, as the old adage goes, it is quite true that good pitching is fully capable of putting the stops on good hitting! Possible playoff preview here and this one will, in all likelihood, be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 6 to 7 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one.
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09-12-23 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
#953/954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 or 9 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Rather low total considering the strength of these two lineups and the way yesterday's double-header played out. However, this one will play out like a playoff game and is set up to be a pitchers duel. Based on bullpen ERA the Phillies are ranked 4th in the National League and the Braves are ranked 1st in the National League. As for the starting pitchers here, the Braves Max Fried is 7-1 with a 2.70 ERA this season and he has allowed just 10 earned runs in his last 5 starts. He has been dominant. As for the Phillies Zack Wheeler, he has a 2.60 ERA and has held hitters to a .185 batting average - these stats in his 10 starts since the All-Star break. Wheeler is happy to be at home for this start as 7 of his last 9 starts have been on the road. Even in that road-heavy stretch, Wheeler has allowed only 16 earned runs in those 9 starts. Both pitchers have been dominating the 2nd half of the MLB season and, as the old adage goes, it is very true that good pitching tops good hitting! Possible playoff preview here and this one will be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 6 to 7 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 45.5 | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 54 h 33 m | Show |
#481/482 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under the total – Buffalo vs NY Jets, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Jets defense was fantastic last season and they had the Bills number to say the least. Buffalo scored just 37 total points in 2 games vs NY (17 & 20 points) and they scored TD’s on only 4 of their 22 offensive possessions vs New York last season. That’s only an 18% TD rate and to put that into perspective, against everyone else not named the Jets, the Bills scored TD’s on 29% of their offensive possessions. Not surprising as NYJ let the NFL allowing TD’s on only 15% of opponents possessions, let the NFL in YPP allowed and finished 4th in total defense. We expect Buffalo to struggle offensively again in this game. On the other side, the Jets bring over Aaron Rodgers from GB but let’s face it, he had a terrible season in 2022. His worst QBR rating of his career ranking 26th in the NFL. Can he turn it around this season? Maybe but he’ll have to do so behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL which is far from ideal. He's also working with new skill players and played only a few snaps in the preseason so it may take some time to fine tune this offense. He’s facing a very solid Buffalo defense that ranked in the top 10 in total defense, YPP allowed, and they gave up only 19 PPG (4th in the league). Seven of the last eight meetings between these 2 AFC East rivals have ended to total points of less than 45 which is the current number. Six of those games have totaled 37 points or fewer. Another Under on Monday Night. |
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09-10-23 | Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 46.5 | 31-21 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
#459/460 ASA PLAY ON 8* UNDER the total - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We are not expecting a ton of points between these two teams on Sunday. The Colts offense is in trouble! They are starting rookie QB Richardson out of Florida who only started 13 games with the Gators. It would be much easier for Richardson if he had RB Taylor in the backfield to take pressure off the passing game. Taylor led the league in rushing yards in 2021 but demanded a trade before the season and is now on the PUP list and out for four games. Indianapolis averaged just 17PPG last season which ranked 30th in the league. On average, it took them 18.3 yards gained to score 1-point which was also 30th. The Colts lacked explosiveness too with an offense that averaged only 4.8-Yards Per Play which was again 30th. The Colts defense made positive strides toward the end of the season allowing 24 or less points in 5 straight games to end the year. That includes one game against this same Jags team. Indianapolis allowed over 25PPG on the year, but they gave up 32 or more points in four of their first five games. The Jaguars emerged as a Playoff team last season under the direction of new coach Doug Pederson. Jacksonville did rank 8th in scoring a year ago and had a top 10 offense in Yards Per Play and were 12th in Yards Per Point. The Jags made huge strides defensively last season allowing just 21.4PPG compared to 26.9PPG they gave up the season before. Jacksonville allowed 13.1-Yards per Point in 2021 (30th) and improved to 16.4-Yards Per Point allowed in 2022. In the two meetings last season the O/U numbers were 41.5 and 44 so we are clearly getting value here. We look to bet Under on Week #1 games with a Total of 46 or less and the home team is an underdog which has produced a 47-25-2 ATS record dating back 20 years. |
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09-09-23 | Wisconsin v. Washington State OVER 57.5 | Top | 22-31 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
#325/326 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 57.5 Points – Wisconsin vs Washington State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - These 2 met last year and Wazzou won 17-14 in a lower scoring game but the script flips this weekend in Pullman. Last year the Badgers offense was fairly pedestrian ranking 74th nationally in scoring (25 PPG) and 89th in total offense (357 YPG) yet still put up over 400 yards on this Cougar defense. Multiple mistakes (3 turnover & 11 penalties) kept their scoring output much lower than it should have been. Last week, under new OC Longo who came over for UNC, the Badgers rolled up 38 points (dropped TD pass would have made it 45) and over 500 yards vs a Buffalo team that had a winning record last year and won their bowl game. Wisconsin also is a much more up tempo team this year under Longo and they ran 71 snaps last week. Their defense, as we suspected, looks like they’ve taken a step back. They lost their top 2 pass rushers and they weren’t able to put any pressure on Buffalo QB Snyder with 0 sacks on the day. This week they face a very accomplished passer in Cam Ward (451 yards passing last week) and he is very elusive. If UW couldn’t get any pressure at home vs a MAC team, we doubt they bother Ward much this week. Wazzou has a new OC Arbuckle who came over from Western Kentucky, one of the fastest paced teams in college football last year. They showed last week that’s the way they will play this year as well with 87 offensive snaps, 3rd most of any team last weekend, in a 50-24 win over Colorado State. Defensively Washington State allowed a CSU team, that averaged 13 PPG last season (127th nationally) to put up 24 points last Saturday. Both defenses are facing much tougher situations this week and we’re not sure either will be able to stop the other’s offense. We like Over the total here. |
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09-09-23 | Pirates v. Braves OVER 10 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves, Saturday at 7:20 PM ET - Early on it looked like Charlie Morton might start this one for the Braves. Even if he did he is coming off a tough outing and more of the same would be likely here. However, it now looks like Dylan Dodd will get the start for the Braves. He has struggled in his limited major league action in this, his rookie season. Dodd also has struggled in the minors badly this season. The point is that no matter who starts here we like this over. The Pirates will take advantage of facing less-than-stellar pitching and this Braves offense remains the most dangerous in the majors. The Braves won big again yesterday and they are 12-4 last 16 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. Pittsburgh, believe it not, had won 7 of 9 games and scored an average of 5 runs per game in their 9 games preceding yesterday's defeat. The Pirates should enjoy some success once again at the plate in this one as they get right back on track. However, the Braves are not going to stop hitting and the projected starter for Pittsburgh here is Johan Oviedo. Though he has been a little better of late, he is still 8-14 with a 4.27 ERA this season and this is the best team in baseball that he must face today on Saturday. Our computer math models are expecting this one to finish with more than a dozen runs in most projections. Over is the call in this early evening match-up Saturday. |
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09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs UNDER 54 | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* under 54 Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - The NFL debuts Thursday night with the Lions taking on the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium. The Lions surprised many fans and teams last year but won’t sneak up on anyone this year. Detroit made a huge jump offensively last season going from 19.1PPG in 2021 to 26.6PPG in 2022 so expect a regression this year against a tougher schedule. Gone from last year's roster are running backs Jamaal Williams (over 1,000-yds rushing) and D’Andre Swift who accounted for 23 combined rushing TD’s. The Lions gave up 25.1PPG but should be improved defensively with added personnel on the D-line and in the defensive backfield. Detroit was much better defensively in the second half of the season allowing just 20.2PPG in their last ten games. Of course, KC is one of the very best offenses in the NFL and has averaged over 29PPG the past two seasons. In their first twelve games last season they scored 27 or less points seven times. Defensively, the Chiefs were 9th in Yards Per Play defense in 2022 at 5.2 per and gave up 22.2PPG (18th). In watching the betting markets on this Total we see a key sharp Book offering a lower number than most of the public shops. That tells us the heavies are on the Under. |
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09-05-23 | Giants v. Cubs OVER 11 | Top | 8-11 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 11 Runs – San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - The wind is expected to be blowing out at a good clip here at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field for this one on a very hot September day in Chicago. That is actually leading to a big posted total here but we believe it could easily be much higher when you consider how crazy games can get at Wrigley Field when weather conditions are like this! The Cubs are expected to start Kyle Hendricks in this one. He is 2-4 in home starts and opponents hitting .274 against him at Wrigley Field. Hendricks is 1-5 in night games with a 4.18 ERA this season. The Giants are expected to start Ryan Walker here but he is really just an opener for this one and the San Francisco bullpen will be susceptible here. The Cubs are one of the top hitting clubs in the majors since the All-Star Break (only the Braves have scored more runs) and have scored an average of 6 runs per game in the last 49 games! San Francisco should also score well here. SF has been at the other end of the spectrum (compared to Chicago) in terms of scoring runs of late but they have faced some tough pitching. Now they go from facing Steele (16-3, 2.55 ERA) to facing a guy (Hendricks) who has allowed 37 hits in 33 innings in his 6 home starts since the All-Star Break. The Giants, taking advantage of very hitter-friendly conditions at Wrigley for this one, should have no problems with the offerings of Hendricks in this one and Chicago should stay hot at the plate and score a pile of runs as well. Our computer math models are expecting this one to finish with more than a dozen runs in most projections. Over is the call in this early evening match-up Tuesday. |
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09-01-23 | Stanford v. Hawaii UNDER 55.5 | 37-24 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* UNDER 55.5 Stanford @ Hawaii, Friday 11 PM ET - This line opened at 58.5 total points but has since been bet down to the current number of 55.5. We like Under in what shapes up to be a low scoring game. Hawaii and Timmy Chang are expected to play fast with their uptempo offense but that is not what we saw in Week 0 when they faced Vanderbilt. The Warriors ran a play every 29.4 seconds which is dramatically slower than their pace a year ago of 23.9 plays per second. In fact, the 29.4 plays/second in last week’s game would have ranked them 126th slowest last season. Hawaii ran 60 plays last week against Vandy and produced 391 total yards of offense. The Rainbow Warriors defense was better than expected against the Commodores as they allowed 297 total yards on 56-plays. Hawaii was 113th in scoring a year ago at 19.4PPG. Stanford comes into this season in complete rebuild mode with a young roster and new coaching staff. They lack experience at the QB position and return just 3 starters on that side of the football. This Cardinal team averaged just 19.5PPG a season ago which was 109th in the nation. Defensively the Cards return 9 starters and should be improved from a season ago when they allowed 34.2PPG (115th). But also remember those stats came against a schedule that featured six of the top 30 scoring teams in college football last season. Hawaii is in a tough travel situation and playing conditions aren’t ideal with high winds expected for this game. The Under trend continues in Week 1. |
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ASA ALL Sports Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-30-23 | Creighton v. Marquette OVER 150 | Top | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
12-29-23 | Hornets v. Suns UNDER 231.5 | Top | 119-133 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
12-29-23 | Memphis v. Iowa State OVER 57 | Top | 36-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
12-28-23 | UCLA v. Oregon State UNDER 128.5 | Top | 69-62 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
12-25-23 | Ravens v. 49ers UNDER 47 | Top | 33-19 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 43 m | Show |
12-24-23 | Colts v. Falcons OVER 45 | 10-29 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
12-24-23 | Browns v. Texans OVER 40 | Top | 36-22 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
12-23-23 | Bengals v. Steelers OVER 37.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
12-21-23 | Capitals v. Blue Jackets OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
12-19-23 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 235 | Top | 126-132 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
12-18-23 | Wizards v. Kings OVER 247 | Top | 131-143 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
12-18-23 | Eagles v. Seahawks OVER 45 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
12-18-23 | Jacksonville State v. Tarleton St UNDER 126.5 | Top | 65-62 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
12-17-23 | Bears v. Browns UNDER 38 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
12-16-23 | UCLA v. Boise State UNDER 48 | Top | 35-22 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
12-15-23 | Senators v. Stars OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 102 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
12-14-23 | Furman v. Tulane OVER 171.5 | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
12-13-23 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 259 | Top | 126-140 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
12-13-23 | Pelicans v. Wizards OVER 241 | Top | 142-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
12-11-23 | Nets v. Kings OVER 234.5 | Top | 118-131 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
12-11-23 | Packers v. Giants UNDER 37 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 18 m | Show |
12-10-23 | Bucs v. Falcons OVER 40.5 | Top | 29-25 | Win | 100 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
12-06-23 | Magic v. Cavs UNDER 224.5 | Top | 111-121 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
12-05-23 | North Texas v. Boise State UNDER 123.5 | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
12-04-23 | Furman v. Arkansas OVER 158.5 | Top | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
12-03-23 | 49ers v. Eagles OVER 47 | Top | 42-19 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
12-02-23 | Illinois v. Rutgers UNDER 136 | Top | 76-58 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
12-02-23 | Boise State v. UNLV OVER 60.5 | Top | 44-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
12-01-23 | Spurs v. Pelicans OVER 236.5 | Top | 106-121 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
11-29-23 | 76ers v. Pelicans OVER 227.5 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
11-27-23 | Wizards v. Pistons OVER 236 | Top | 126-107 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
11-26-23 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 228.5 | Top | 120-132 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
11-26-23 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 43.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
11-26-23 | Jaguars v. Texans UNDER 48 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
11-25-23 | San Jose State v. UNLV OVER 59.5 | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
11-21-23 | Bowling Green v. Western Michigan OVER 51.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
11-18-23 | North Carolina v. Clemson OVER 59.5 | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
11-16-23 | Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 227 | Top | 128-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
11-15-23 | Buffalo v. Miami-OH UNDER 41 | Top | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 43 h 43 m | Show |
11-14-23 | Hawks v. Pistons OVER 225.5 | Top | 126-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
11-14-23 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois OVER 54.5 | Top | 0-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
11-13-23 | Broncos v. Bills UNDER 47.5 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
11-12-23 | 49ers v. Jaguars UNDER 45 | Top | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
11-10-23 | North Texas v. SMU OVER 68 | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 26 m | Show |
11-09-23 | Panthers v. Bears UNDER 38.5 | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
11-09-23 | Virginia v. Louisville UNDER 50.5 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 6 m | Show |
11-08-23 | Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 219.5 | Top | 94-128 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
11-08-23 | Akron v. Miami-OH UNDER 41 | Top | 0-19 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
11-07-23 | Flyers v. Sharks OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -119 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
11-07-23 | Ohio v. Buffalo UNDER 44 | Top | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
11-06-23 | Wizards v. 76ers OVER 228.5 | Top | 128-146 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
11-05-23 | Colts v. Panthers OVER 44 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
11-05-23 | Seahawks v. Ravens OVER 44 | 3-37 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
11-04-23 | LSU v. Alabama OVER 61 | Top | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
11-03-23 | Cavs v. Pacers OVER 225.5 | Top | 116-121 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
10-30-23 | Raiders v. Lions UNDER 47 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
10-29-23 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 46 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
10-27-23 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers UNDER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
10-26-23 | Bucs v. Bills UNDER 43.5 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
10-26-23 | Georgia State v. Georgia Southern OVER 63.5 | Top | 27-44 | Win | 100 | 42 h 46 m | Show |
10-24-23 | Hurricanes v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
10-22-23 | Packers v. Broncos OVER 45 | Top | 17-19 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
10-21-23 | Appalachian State v. Old Dominion OVER 55 | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
10-20-23 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
10-19-23 | James Madison v. Marshall OVER 49 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
10-18-23 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
10-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
10-17-23 | Middle Tennessee State v. Liberty UNDER 57 | Top | 35-42 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
10-14-23 | Boise State v. Colorado State OVER 60 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
10-14-23 | UCLA v. Oregon State UNDER 54.5 | Top | 24-36 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
10-13-23 | Fresno State v. Utah State OVER 57 | Top | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 53 h 20 m | Show |
10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 47 | Top | 8-19 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 1 m | Show |
10-12-23 | SMU v. East Carolina UNDER 49.5 | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
10-11-23 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
10-09-23 | Packers v. Raiders OVER 45 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
10-07-23 | Colorado State v. Utah State OVER 62 | Top | 24-44 | Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
10-07-23 | Kent State v. Ohio UNDER 45.5 | 17-42 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 10 m | Show | |
10-05-23 | Bears v. Commanders OVER 44 | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
10-04-23 | Blue Jays v. Twins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
10-01-23 | Patriots v. Cowboys UNDER 43.5 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 46 m | Show |
09-30-23 | South Carolina v. Tennessee OVER 59.5 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
09-30-23 | Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 45.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 59 m | Show | |
09-29-23 | Cincinnati v. BYU UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-35 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 37 m | Show |
09-28-23 | Jacksonville State v. Sam Houston State UNDER 36.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -109 | 40 h 43 m | Show |
09-25-23 | Eagles v. Bucs OVER 44.5 | 25-11 | Loss | -111 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
09-24-23 | Cowboys v. Cardinals UNDER 43 | Top | 16-28 | Loss | -109 | 63 h 49 m | Show |
09-24-23 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 44 | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 59 h 27 m | Show |
09-23-23 | Ohio v. Bowling Green UNDER 44.5 | Top | 38-7 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 40 m | Show |
09-22-23 | Rockies v. Cubs OVER 9 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
09-17-23 | Dolphins v. Patriots UNDER 46.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 26 m | Show |
09-15-23 | Army v. UTSA UNDER 45 | Top | 37-29 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 1 m | Show |
09-14-23 | Rays v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
09-12-23 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 45.5 | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 54 h 33 m | Show |
09-10-23 | Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 46.5 | 31-21 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
09-09-23 | Wisconsin v. Washington State OVER 57.5 | Top | 22-31 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
09-09-23 | Pirates v. Braves OVER 10 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs UNDER 54 | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
09-05-23 | Giants v. Cubs OVER 11 | Top | 8-11 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
09-01-23 | Stanford v. Hawaii UNDER 55.5 | 37-24 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 25 m | Show |