Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-31-23 | Lakers v. Wolves UNDER 232.5 | Top | 123-111 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 232.5 LA Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - If the Playoffs where to start today this would be the 7/8 matchup play in game. In a playoff like atmosphere for both teams we like the defenses to rise to the occasion. Prior to the All-Star Break the Lakers were 25th in points allowed per game, giving up 118.2 per. The Timberwolves were better allowing 115.8PPG. Los Angeles has improved dramatically since the trade deadline and are giving up just 111PPG which is 6th best in the league. Minnesota has slipped slightly allowing 116.5PPG. Both teams were scoring more prior to the break too. The Lakers rank 11th in defensive efficiency on the season while the Wolves are 10th giving up just 1.139-points per possession. Both teams prefer to play up-tempo, but recently (in their last five games) each team has slowed significantly in pace of play. Both teams are near average or below in offensive efficiency. These two teams have met twice this season and produced total points of 212 and 213. This game won’t be that low but it will be around 222. |
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03-28-23 | Oilers v. Golden Knights OVER 7 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show | |
#69/70 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 7 Goals - Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights, Monday at 10 PM ET - After last night's huge 5-4 win at Arizona, 25 of last 33 Edmonton games have totaled at least 7 goals. The Oilers are seeking revenge in this one and will be ready to respond here after losing at home to Vegas on Saturday night. Edmonton entered last night's game off 4-3 OT loss and 4-3 OT win last 2 games and this followed a stretch in which Oilers scored at least 4 goals in 14 of 18 games. One of, if not the, most dangerous teams in the league and seeking revenge for a recent home loss, we look for plenty of scoring in this one as it is set up perfect being a road revenge, but also B2B spot, for the Oilers. The Edmonton offense responds but continues to have some issues keeping the puck out of their own. Note that with Campbell starting last night in goal for Edmonton, it will likely be Skinner tonight and he has allowed at least 3 goals in 3 straight games. 9 of last 12 Vegas games have totaled at least 7 goals. Golden Knights have won 8 of 9 games and, not including OT or SO, have scored an average of 4 goals per game during this stretch. Of course Oilers known for hitting the 4-goal mark with regularity. This one should get to 8 or 9. Over is our play here. |
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03-27-23 | Bulls v. Clippers UNDER 224.5 | Top | 112-124 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on UNDER 224.5 Chicago Bulls @ LA Clippers, 10:40 PM ET - The Bulls are coming off a big upset win over the Lakers on Sunday which makes this the 2nd night of a back-to-back. This is also their 3rd game in 4 days and 4th in 6. The Clippers meanwhile are coming off a home loss to the Pelicans on Saturday night. New Orleans shot ridiculously well overall by hitting 53% from the field and by making 21 of 34 3-pointers. Those numbers are clearly an anomaly as the Clippers are solid defensively. While we are on the subject of defense, the Bulls allow the 7th fewest points per game this season, rank 6th in opponents FG% and 11th in 3PT% defense. Offensively neither team is great with the Bulls ranking 20th in scoring at 113.4PPG and the Clippers 23rd at 112.8PPG. The Clippers have stayed Under at home in 19 of their last 26 games when facing a team with a sub .500 record. The Bulls are 4-1 to the Under when playing without rest and those games have averaged 218PPG. When these teams met in late January, they produced just 211 total points. Expert another UNDER here. |
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03-27-23 | Oilers v. Coyotes OVER 7 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
#51/52 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 7 Goals - Edmonton Oilers at Arizona Coyotes, Monday at 10 PM ET - We like the over here regardless of the starting goalies. But we'll start there by mentioning that the Oilers are expected to start Jack Campbell here as he was in the starters crease at this morning's skate. Campbell has just 1 win in his last 6 starts and has about a 5.00 GAA during this stretch. Campbell has allowed at least 4 goals in all 6 of these starts! The Coyotes have allowed at least 3 goals in 3 straight games and it has not mattered who is in goal. Included in the stretch was a 4-3 OT loss to the Oilers and Edmonton also won the first meeting this season by an 8-2 count. We look for the Coyotes to again struggle to stop the Oilers here but also Arizona is known for competing well at home and will score some goals against an Oilers team known for struggling in its own zone. The Coyotes have scored an average of 4 goals in last 8 home games! 8 of last 12 Arizona games have totaled at least 7 goals. 24 of last 32 Edmonton games have totaled at least 7 goals. The Oilers are off a loss and will be ready to respond here after losing at home to Vegas on Saturday night. Edmonton is off 4-3 OT loss and 4-3 OT win last 2 games and this followed a stretch in which Oilers scored at least 4 goals in 14 of 18 games. One of, if not the, most dangerous teams in the league and coming off a loss, we look for plenty of scoring in this one. The Edmonton offense responds but continues to have some issues keeping the puck out of their own net especially if Campbell gets the start as expected. If he does not start it would be Skinner and he has allowed at least 3 goals in 3 straight games. Over is our play here.
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03-26-23 | Creighton v. San Diego State OVER 134.5 | Top | 56-57 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
#657/658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 134.5 Points – San Diego State vs Creighton, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET - Creighton’s offense has been rolling in the NCAA tourney scoring 72, 85, and 86 points. Their last 2 games they averaged 1.21 PPP and 1.24 PPP vs Baylor and Princeton reaching 161 total points in each of those wins. Since March 1st the Blue Jays have averaged 82 PPG on 1.20 PPP which ranks them 16th nationally during that time period. The Aztecs averaged 73 PPG on the season and they just put up 71 points on Alabama who has the 3rd most efficient defense in the nation. Bama only had 64 points but had a brutal night from beyond the arc making just 3 of 27 (11%) and that game and they put up only 0.86 PPP. The 2 teams combined to shoot only 35% in the game and it still reached 135 total points despite that brutal offensive effort. We expect the Aztecs offense to play much better here vs a Creighton defense that allowed 75 points to Princeton on Friday and has given up at least 70 points in 7 of their last 9 games. Creighton games have totaled at least 135 points in 11 straight games. The Jays will want to play fast and while San Diego State is a slower paced team, when they fast an up tempo team on Friday (Bama) the 2 teams combined for 140 shot attempts and 42 FT attempts. This total is set too low in our opinion and we’ll take the Over. |
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03-25-23 | Pelicans v. Clippers UNDER 225 | Top | 131-110 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225 New Orleans Pelicans @ LA Clippers, 10:30 PM ET - In recent times this has been a low scoring series. In their last four meetings the most points produced in a game was 219, the other three finished with 206 or less. The Pelicans play solid defense and have held their last two opponents to 96 and 84 points. That’s not a huge surprise considering they own the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the league at 1.126-points per possession allowed. The Pelicans have also held their last five foes to an average of 43.8% shooting. The Clippers also know a little something about defense. LA is 12th in DEFF ratings and they hold opponents to 47.1% shooting which is 12th. In their last 7 games the Clippers defense has allowed 105 or less points five times. Neither team is a great shooting team ranking 11th and 16th in team FG%. The Clippers will dictate tempo here and they prefer a slower pace. New Orleans is average in pace of play. It all adds up to a big Under winner Saturday. |
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03-25-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Kansas State OVER 144 | Top | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 144 Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State, 6:10 PM ET - Our predictive analytics have this game finishing with 151 or more total points as we expect both teams to score in the high 70’s or above. Markquis Nowell of the Wildcats is a dynamic point guard that sees the floor extremely well and can shoot it too. He had 20-points and 19 assists in K-State’s win over Michigan State. KSU wants to play fast with the 43rd highest Adjusted Tempo rating in the nation and on average it takes them just 16.5 seconds to hoist a shot. The Wildcats rank 35th in offensive efficiency at 1.136-points per possession. They also own a 52.2EFG% which is good for 82nd. Florida Atlantic is also very capable of point up points in a hurry with an offense that was 26th in OEFF at 1.146PPP. The Owls were average in Adjusted Tempo, but their average possession length was considerably faster. FAU has an EFG% of 54.3% which is 26 in the nation and they rank 45th or better in both 3PT% and 2PT%. Looking at the Owls most recent 13 games we find they scored 90 or more points four times. They scored 70+ in 10 of their last thirteen games. Kansas State has scored 73 or more points in 7 of their last nine games. KSU averaged over 76PPG and that’s with a majority of those games coming in Big12 play where 6 of the top 27 defensive efficiency teams reside. We love the spot for a shootout! Easy OVER! |
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03-24-23 | San Diego State v. Alabama UNDER 138 | Top | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 138 San Diego State vs. Alabama, 6:30 PM ET - We get two different styles of play here as the Tide want to play fast with the 5th fastest Adjusted Tempo in college basketball, while San Diego State is 263rd in that same category. Both teams are somewhat similar offensively with the 18th most efficient offense for Bama and the 70th for the Aztecs. What each team does exceptionally well is play defense. San Diego State allows .908-points per possession which is 6th best in the nation. They own the 28th best EFG% defense and are 4th best in defending the 3-point line. As good as the Aztecs are, the Tide are better. Bama is 3rd in DEFF allowing .881PPP, rank 1st in EFG% defense, 3rd in 3PT% defense and 1st in FG% D. These two teams have trended to the Under when playing good competition or teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. In that scenario, the Aztecs have stayed Under in 6 straight, Alabama is 5-1 Under in their last six in the same situation. Bet UNDER! |
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03-23-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Tennessee UNDER 129.5 | Top | 62-55 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 129.5 Florida Atlantic vs. Tennessee, 9 PM ET - The numbers from our math model suggest this is going to be a low scoring game with a final total points scored of 120. The Vols defense is rated the best in the country when it comes to efficiency ratings as they give up just .870-points per possession. They hold opponents to the 3rd lowest EFG% at 42.7%, rank 1st in 3PT% allowed at 26.4% and are 11th in overall FG% defense. To better put this into perspective the Vols defense held Alabama, the 3rd highest scoring team in the nation at 82.3PPG to just 59 points in mid-February. Tennessee just held a Duke team that was averaging 72PPG to 52-points. The Volunteers also prefer to play at a slower pace of play as they rank 278th in Adjusted Tempo and 240th in Average Possession Length at 18.1. Florida Atlantic can also play some defense as they allow just .954-points per possession which ranks them 34th. They have the 15th best EFG% defense at 45.9% and defend the 3-point line and inside the arc well. The Owls are average in tempo ranking 143rd. The Vols are on a 7-3 Under streak, Florida Atlanta is on a 4-1 Under run. We trust the Models numbers on this one and expect a very low scoring contest. |
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03-23-23 | Maple Leafs v. Panthers OVER 7 | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
#33/34 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 7 Goals - Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Big total but love this spot for a goal-fest. The Maple Leafs have had 6 of last 7 games total at least 7 goals and those games averaged 8 goals and we expect a 5-4 type battle! The Panthers have had 5 of last 6 games total at least 7 goals and those 6 games have averaged about 9 goals per game. You can see why the scoring should be strong in this one given numbers like this. Even though these are divisional foes, this is just their 2nd meeting of 4 this season as they have two more over the final 3 weeks of the season. The first one was a 5-4 final in OT and another game in which the teams scored 4 goals apiece in regulation would not be a surprise at all the way these two teams are going right now. Over is our play here. |
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03-21-23 | Thunder v. Clippers UNDER 236.5 | Top | 101-100 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* UNDER 236.5 Oklahoma City Thunder @ LA Clippers, 10:40 PM ET - When these two teams met earlier this season they produced total points of 202 and 228. Our analytics suggest another game in the mid 220’s. When it comes to defense there aren’t many teams playing better than the Clippers, who are allowing 1.118-points per possession in their last five games. One of the three other teams that rate better than the Clippers in that 5-game stretch is the Thunder. OKC is 1st in the NBA in points per possession allowed in the last five games at 1.062PPP. LA is the home team here and they will dictate tempo or pace which should be slow. The Clippers are the 7th slowest paced team in the NBA this season. The Thunder average 121.1PPG at home which is the second highest average in the league. But on the road that average dips to 114.1PPG. The Clippers are the 4th lowest scoring team in the league when playing at home at 111.4PPG, but also give up just 109.8PPG. 12 of the last sixteen meetings on this court between these two teams has stayed Under the number. |
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03-21-23 | Wisconsin v. Oregon UNDER 134.5 | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 134.5 Wisconsin @ Oregon, 9 PM ET - The Ducks are dealing with injuries with several starters missing both NIT games thus far. Reports are they will have All-Pac 12 starting center N’Faly Dante back for this game against Wisconsin and potentially Jermaine Couisnard. Those are important pieces for a Ducks team that was 53rd in defensive efficiency this season allowing just .979PPP. Oregon held opponents to 66.7PPG on the season on 41.7% shooting. The Ducks just faced UCF who is very similar to Wisconsin when it come to pace of play as the Knights averaged 64.8 possessions per game which was 307th in the nation. This Badger team is even slower yet, ranking 342nd at 63.5 and it takes them on average 19.6 seconds per possession to get a shot up (348th). Wisconsin also knows a little something about defense ranking 27th in the country in DEFF allowing just .950-points per possession. The Badgers were a very poor shooting team on the season at 41.7% (317th) and scored just 65.2PPG. Bucky is coming off a game at home where they shot 54% overall which is unlikely to happen again, especially on the road. Oregon has an adjusted tempo of 66.7 which ranks them 205th so they prefer a slower pace also. The bet here is UNDER. |
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03-21-23 | Blue Jackets v. Capitals OVER 6.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
#1/2 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We like the over here regardless of the starting goalies. But we'll start there by mentioning that the Blue Jackets are expected to start Daniil Tarasov and he has lost 8 of his last 9 starts and is 3-11-1 with a 3.77 GAA this season and is off a start in which he allowed 5 goals. The Capitals are expected to start Charlie Lindgren and he has allowed 4 goals in each of his last two starts. Washington is still mathematically alive but they realize their odds on a wild card spot are slim. The Blue Jackets have already been eliminated from post-season contention. Considering the situation, this game is likely to play out rather wide-open with plenty of open ice. Overall, Washington has seen plenty of that lately too as the Capitals last 4 games have totaled at least 7 goals. Also, the last 11 Caps games have averaged 8 goals. The Blue Jackets also have been trending to overs because their defense is so bad and their goaltending has been subpar. Columbus has lost 8 of 11 games and scored an average of 3.3 goals during this stretch but also allowed an average of 4.8 goals per game. As you can see from these numbers, just like Washington, the Jackets last 11 games averaging 8 goals. You can see why we fully expect to see at least 7 goals in this one! Also, we are aware of the Kuznetsov injury situation for the Capitals but even if he is not back for tonight's game he has been having a very quiet month and yet the Capitals still scoring very well. Also, Washington is getting a boost with the imminent return of John Carslon even though he may not be back until Thursday. Morale is up for the Caps these days. Over is our play here. |
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03-20-23 | Bulls v. 76ers UNDER 226 | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226 Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7:10 PM ET - The pace of play should be very slow in this contest as the 76ers are the 5th slowest paced team in the NBA and the Bulls are 14th. On the season these two teams are also both stout defensively with the 5th and 6th ranked defensive efficiency units allowing 1.128-points per possession. In each teams last five games they have been even better defensively allowing just 1.108PPP (Bulls) and 1.102PPP (76ers). Both teams defend the 3-point line well too ranking 4th and 12th in 3PT% defense. Chicago is coming off a game against the Heat which finished with 212 total points and 162 total field goal attempts. Philly recently played a game against the Cavaliers in which there were only 160 FGA’s but the Sixers put up 118 points on unusually high shooting percentages of 52% overall and 47% from beyond the arc. The Bulls have some favorable road Under numbers while the 76ers have one of the lowest total points average when at home. |
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03-19-23 | Magic v. Lakers UNDER 231.5 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 231.5 Orlando Magic @ LA Lakers, 9:40 PM ET - The Lakers are fighting for their playoff lives while the Magic have been eliminated for quite some time. The young Magic have had flashes of being a viable team, but recently the grind has started to catch up with them. Orlando is 3-6 SU their last nine games but are coming off a win over the Clippers. For the season the Magic are right around league average in pace of play and defensive efficiency ratings. They rank 26th in offensive efficiency though, averaging just 1.120PPP. For the season the Lakers have been one of the faster paced teams in the league, but with LeBron out they run the offense through Anthony Davis which has led to a slower pace of play. Case in point is their pace of play in the last five games of 96.9 possessions per game which ranks 22nd slowest in the NBA. It’s no coincidence that the Lakers defense has been much better without LeBron too as they allowed over 118PPG prior to the All-Star break and are giving up just 111PPG without him on the court. In their last five games the Lakers hold the 11th best defensive efficiency rating in the league. Both teams defend the 3-point line extremely well ranking 8th (Magic) and 2nd (Lakers) and neither shoots it well from Downtown. Orlando ranks 24th in the league in 3PT% at 34.6%, while the Lakers rank 27th at 33.9%. No chance these two teams get to more than 230 total points. |
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03-19-23 | Michigan State v. Marquette UNDER 140.5 | Top | 69-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
#841/842 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 140.5 Points – Michigan State vs Marquette, Sunday at 5:15 PM ET - We were on the Under in the 1st round game Vermont vs Marquette and we’ll stick with that in today’s Golden Eagles match up with Michigan State. After giving up 94 points to St Johns in their home finale (a 96-94 Marquette win), the Golden Eagles knew they had to focus on playing much better defense to have a chance to succeed in the Big East tourney and then the NCAA tourney. They took the 94 points allowed to heart facing St Johns again just a few days later in the Big East tournament. They held the Johnnies to just 61 points in regulation improving by their defense by 33 points in the span of just a few days. Marquette followed that up by holding UConn to 68 points and then completely shut down Xavier to 51 points in the Big East final. In Friday’s NCAA opener they limited Vermont to 61 points on 0.97 PPP. All 4 of those defensive efforts were impressive and this Golden Eagle team is locked in on that end of the court right now. After struggling defensively their final few games of the regular season, MSU head coach Tom Izzo made it clear to his team they needed to pick it up on that end of the court. They took that to heart and held a good USC offense that averages 73 PPG to just 62 points on Friday. Even after the game Izzo stressed how his team won because they played better defense. Both defenses force opponents into long possessions with Marquette opponents taking 18.7 seconds per possession (7th best in the nation) and MSU opponents taking 18.3 seconds per possession (38th). MSU ranks 37th nationally in defensive efficiency and while Marquette struggled early in the season on that end of the court, they actually rank 22nd in defensive efficiency since February 1st. Offensively Marquette likes to play fast although they’ve slowed down considerably as of late. They’ve averaged just 68 PPG in regulation in the post season (conference & NCAA) and MSU will slow this game down (Sparty 304th in adjusted tempo). Neither team is great at offensive rebounding (both ranked outside the top 220) and neither scores many points from the FT line (both outside the top 300 in % of points from the charity stripe). We project this game to land in the mid 130’s and we love the value on the Under. |
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03-18-23 | Islanders v. Sharks UNDER 6 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
8* UNDER - Islanders off a 6-3 win but had scored an average of only 2.3 goals in their 9 games heading into that one. The Isles are playing the last game of a road trip on the west coast and then play their next game Tuesday all the way back across the country in New York. Sometimes this is one of the toughest spots for a team and their goal-scoring could struggle here. Additionally, the Sharks have not been scoring well either. San Jose has lost 14 of 17 games and the Sharks have scored an average of only 1.9 goals per game in the 14 losses. This one has all the makings of a 3-2 final at the most yet we are working with a total of 6 goals here. We'll take it in a game that could very well be tied at 2 at the end of regulation. That is certainly what the recent trending for these teams supports in this spot. Under is our play here. |
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03-18-23 | Northwestern v. UCLA UNDER 127.5 | Top | 63-68 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
#815/816 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 127.5 Points – Northwestern vs UCLA, Saturday at 8:40 PM ET - Two slow paced teams, UCLA 235th and NW 309th in adjusted tempo, that play very good defense. UCLA ranks #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency and the Wildcats rank 19th. The Bruins allow just 60 PPG (7th nationally) while NW gives up only 62 PPG (20th). More recently, since February 1st both of these defenses rank in the top 12 nationally in efficiency. NW has allowed less than 70 points in 14 of their last 16 games while UCLA has allowed less than 70 in 12 of their last 14 games. Since losing @ USC on January 26th, the Bruins have held 11 of their last 14 opponents to less than 1.00 PPP. Offensively neither team is overly efficient away from home this season. Both barely average 1.00 PPP on the road and neither is a great shooting team. Northwestern ranks 316th in eFG% and UCLA ranks 155th. The Bruins score very little from beyond the arc (333rd in % of points from deep) and while NW takes more 3’s, they only shoot 32% from out there (275th). Lastly neither team gets to the FT line very often so we don’t look for many freebies in this game. This will be a grinder that should stay Under barring any late fouling (scramble) situations. |
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03-18-23 | Wolves v. Raptors OVER 224.5 | Top | 107-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 224 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Toronto Raptors, 7:10PM ET - This line opened 228 and has bet down to the current number and we love the added value with an Over bet here. Minnesota is coming off a double-overtime game last night in Chicago and have been a slight Over team when playing without rest. The Wolves O/U record when coming off a game the night before is 6-5 but those games have averaged 240.5PPG. On the season the Wolves games have averaged over 231 total points. When playing away from home the Wolves games average slightly more at 232.1PPG. Toronto is very consistent with their scoring as they average right around 224 total points from game both home and away. The Raptors offense has clicked in two straight games with 125 versus the Nuggets and 128 last time out against the Thunder. Minnesota shoots it at a 49.1% rate which is 4th best in the NBA and the Raptors defense allows opponents 49.2% which ranks 28th worst. Toronto is on a 6-1 Over streak, while Minnesota is 5-1 Over their last six road games versus teams with a +.600 or better record. Bet OVER HERE! |
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03-17-23 | Vermont v. Marquette UNDER 144.5 | Top | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 37 h 20 m | Show |
#743/744 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 144.5 Points – Vermont vs Marquette, Friday at 2:45 PM ET - After giving up 94 points to St Johns in their home finale (a 96-94 Marquette win), the Golden Eagles knew they had to focus on playing much better defense to have a chance to succeed in the Big East tourney and then the NCAA tourney. They took the 94 points allowed to heart facing St Johns again just a few days later in the Big East tournament. They held the Johnnies to just 61 points in regulation improving by their defense by 33 points in the span of just a few days. Marquette followed that up by holding UConn to 68 points and then completely shut down Xavier to 51 points in the Big East final. All 3 of those defensive efforts were impressive, especially the final 2 as both UConn and Xavier are ranked in the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency. This Golden Eagle team is locked in on that end of the court right now. They are facing a Vermont offense that ranks 98th in efficiency, however they haven’t faced many top tier defensive teams this season. Their conference, America East, doesn’t have a single team ranked in the top 100 in defensive efficiency. The only top 70 defenses they’ve faced all season were St Mary’s, USC, Iona, and Yale. The Catamounts scored 53, 57, 50, and 44 points in those games respectively. Vermont is one of the slowest paced teams in the country (313th in adjusted tempo) and they know they have to slow this game down to have a chance. They were solid defensively this season ranking #1 in the conference in efficiency. Neither team is very good on the offensive glass which will mean very few 2nd chance points. Neither team fouls very much and when it comes to percentage of points at the FT line they both rank outside the top 325. Vermont makes this a slow paced game and Marquette’s defense continues to shine. Under here. |
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03-17-23 | Kennesaw State v. Xavier OVER 154 | Top | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 21 m | Show |
#787/788 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 154 Points – Kennesaw State vs Xavier, Friday at 12:40 PM ET - Two fast paced teams going at it here in game where we should see lots of offensive possessions. Both rank in the top 100 in offensive possessions per game while Xavier is 39th nationally in adjusted tempo and Kennesaw State is 121st. The Musketeers rank 12th in the country in scoring averaging 82 PPG while the Owls aren’t far behind averaging 76 PPG (89th in the nation). On the other end of the court, neither of these teams is all that great defensively. When it comes to guarding the 3 point arc, both are poor ranking outside the top 230 and they are facing offenses that are very good at hitting from deep with Xavier making 39.5% (3rd in the nation) and KSU making 37% (34th in the nation). The Owls defense ranked 212th this season in eFG% allowed despite the majority of their games coming in a conference (Atlantic Sun) that had only 3 teams ranked inside the top 100 in offensive efficiency. Xavier’s defense has been shaky all season allowing 74.5 PPG (305th nationally). These 2 have been cashing Overs all season long with a combined record of 40-24-2 to the Over. Should be an exciting game to watch if you like offense. High scoring and we like the Over. |
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03-16-23 | Avalanche v. Senators OVER 6.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
#7/8 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 Goals - Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Tough back to back spot for the Avalanche off a 2-1 SO win at Toronto last night. Remember that Georgiev entered last night's start having allowed 4 goals twice in his last three starts! No matter who is in goal for the Avs this team entered last night's action having allowed 4 goals per game last 7 games! The good news for Colorado fans is that, despite the struggles at times in their own end, this team can pile up goals. The Avalanche were off an 8-4 win at Montreal and their last 6 road games had averaged 7.3 goals before last night's surprising 2-1 final. The Senators have struggled for quite some time now in terms of goals allowed but do continue to score well on home ice where they have scored an average of 5 goals per game last 8 games. Ottawa is also off a road trip in which they allowed 5 goals per game over the 5-game stretch. Injuries to Forsberg and Talbot in goal have really hurt the Sens and the Avs will take advantage here but the Senators also should score well at home yet again. Over is our play here. |
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03-16-23 | Auburn v. Iowa UNDER 152 | Top | 83-75 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 26 m | Show |
#751/752 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 152 Points – Iowa vs Auburn, Thursday at 6:50 PM ET - We’ve discussed Iowa’s massive offensive dichotomy when playing at home compared to on the road many times this season. Their offensive efficiency numbers drop for 1.22 PPP at home to 0.99 PPP on the road or neutral site. They average a ridiculous 20 fewer points away from home (89 PPG at home / 69 PPG on the road). Lastly their shooting numbers on the road are 41% overall and only 28% from deep. The Hawkeyes are facing a very good defense here in Auburn. The Tigers 5th nationally defending the arc allowing opponents to shoot only 28.8%. They also rank 12th in eFG% defense and 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cats allowed just 67 PPG and we expect Iowa to struggle offensive as they often do away from home. Iowa’s defense isn’t great by any means, however the Auburn offense isn’t either. They rank outside the top 300 in 3 point FG% making only 31% and the Tigers rank just 248th in eFG%. They’ve also slowed down their pace dramatically compared to past seasons. This year they sit 165th in adjusted tempo after finishing in the top 55 the previous 2 seasons. Iowa will want to play fast but Auburn will want to slow this one down a bit. Iowa’s road games average 141 total points and Auburn’s road games averaged 142 total points. Unless both teams shoot lights out, we don’t see this getting into the 150’s. This is an unfamiliar venue for both teams and we’ll call for the Under here. |
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03-15-23 | Avalanche v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
#79/80 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We like the over here regardless of the starting goalies. But we'll start there by mentioning that the Maple Leafs are expected to go with Samsonov and he has allowed 8 goals in his last two starts. If Toronto goes with Murray, he has allowed 4 goals in 5 straight starts. As for the Avalanche, Georgiev expected to start and he got pulled against the Maple Leafs when they faced Toronto earlier this season as he allowed 5 goals in less than two periods of work! He also enters this start having allowed 4 goals twice in his last three starts! No matter who is in goal for the Avs this team has allowed 4 goals per game last 7 games! The good news for Colorado fans is that, despite the struggles at times in their own end, this team can pile up goals. The Avalanche are off an 8-4 win at Montreal and their last 6 road games have averaged 7.3 goals. The Maple Leafs have had one low-scoring home game of late but that was because it was against the Wild and Minnesota continues to get involved in low-scoring grinders. But, other than that one exception, if you look at the other recent home games for Toronto they have scored an average of 4 goals last 12. Also, 8 of those 12 totaled at least 7 goals and we look for at least 7 in this one too! Over is our play here. |
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03-14-23 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 233 | Top | 116-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* UNDER 232.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Phoenix Suns, 10:10 PM ET - Both teams are playing their second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four nights so fatigue becomes a factor. That should lead to less possessions and scoring opportunities as both will regress in pace of play here. When these two teams met in Milwaukee in late February, they combined for 182 field goal attempts (slightly more than league average) but produced just 205 total points. When it comes to pace of play the Suns are one of the slowest in the league at 98 possessions per game which ranks 22nd. Milwaukee plays faster ranking 11th overall, but given the schedule we expect them to play at the Suns preferred tempo tonight. Both teams can defend as the Bucks rank 3rd overall in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.108-points per possession. The Suns rank 8th at 1.129PPP. When the Bucks have faced an above .500 team this season those games have averaged 224.8 total points per game. When the Suns have faced a team of the same caliber (above .500) those games have averaged 222.5PPG. We expect both defenses to shine tonight. Bet UNDER! |
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03-14-23 | Bradley v. Wisconsin UNDER 127.5 | Top | 62-81 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 60 m | Show |
#675/676 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127.5 Points – Bradley vs Wisconsin, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET - We have 2 of the slowest paced teams in the country facing off in Madison on Tuesday night. The Braves rank 289th in adjusted tempo and Wisconsin ranks 348th. Defensively both of these teams make opposing offenses work hard for a decent shot. Opponents vs the UW defense have an average possession time of 18.3 seconds (325th) and the Bradley defense allows opponents an average possession length of 18.7 seconds (357th). Offensively these teams rank 345th (Wisconsin) and 319th (Bradley) in possessions per game out of 363 teams. The fact is, there just won’t be many opportunities for the offenses in this game. And when there are, both defenses are solid. Wisconsin ranks 27th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and Bradley ranks 51st (1st in the Missouri Valley Conference). Neither teams is adept on the offensive glass while both are very good defensive rebounding teams so 2nd chance points will be minimal. We should also see very few FT attempts in this game as both Wisconsin and Bradley rank outside the top 340 in percentage of points from the charity stripe and when they get there both only shoot in the mid 60% range. We don’t see either of these teams topping 65 points in this one and we’ll grab the Under. |
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03-14-23 | Canadiens v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
#53/54 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 Goals - Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - Montreal has been dealing with injuries but still scored 4 goals last night! The goal-scoring is the good news but the bad news is that Montreal allowed 8 goals in last night's loss. They also had to just use both goalies in the game due to how ugly the loss was so that exasperates the situation in what was already a tough back to back spot for the Habs. That said, expect plenty of goals and the Penguins are sure to show no mercy on home ice. However, Pittsburgh also has seen both Jarry and Desmith allow some bigger goal totals recently. Pittsburgh has scored 3.5 goals per game last 8 games but allowed 3 goals per game last 6 games. Both teams are struggling so badly of late to stop the opposition and we don't see that changing here. That said, don't be surprised if each team gets to 3 goals in this one. As a final result then, look for at least a total of 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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03-12-23 | Wild v. Coyotes UNDER 6 | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
#45/46 ASA PLAY ON 8* UNDER 6 Goals - Minnesota Wild at Arizona Coyotes, Sunday at 9:35 PM ET -Prosvetov was great in goal in his most recent start and each of Coyotes last two games have totaled only 5 goals. Here they are hosting a Wild team looking for revenge and that should point to a low-scoring result here. Minnesota will look to dominate play and force the style of game to be their type of game. Wild want revenge and catch Arizona in 2nd game of a back to back. Minnesota is off B2B wins by counts of 4-2 and 5-2, respectively. However, prior to this, 16 of last 18 Minnesota games had totaled only 5 goals. This looks like another low-scoring grinder given the situation and the revenge factor. As a final result then, look for no more than 5 goals in this one! Under is our play here. |
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03-11-23 | Bucks v. Warriors OVER 240 | Top | 116-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on OVER 240 Milwaukee Bucks @ Golden State Warriors, Saturday, 8:30 PM ET - We expect a very high scoring game between these two teams on Saturday. The Warriors season long statistics are somewhat misleading as they’ve dealt with major injuries to their superstars. Even with that being the case they are still 3rd in the NBA in scoring at 118.1PPG. Golden State is 4th in effective FG% shooting at 56.8% and 4th in overall 3PT% at 38.3%. Milwaukee is 15th on the season in offensive efficiency at 1.148-points per possession but in their last five games they rank 3rd at 1.251PPP. The Bucks are averaging 115.8PPG on the season and have put up 127PPG in their last three games. The Bucks have maintained a top defensive efficiency rating this season but the Warriors have not, ranking 17th. Golden State simply wants to outscore their opponents which is why they rank 1st in pace of play at 102 possessions per game. The Bucks will play fast too as they rank 12th pace at 100.1. When these two teams met earlier this season they combined for 239 total points. Last year when these two teams met in Cali they produced 231 total points. We are betting this game will be a shootout. |
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03-11-23 | Kent State v. Toledo OVER 148.5 | Top | 93-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
#605/606 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 149 Points – Kent State vs Toledo, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - In the MAC Title game we have 2 fast paced, extremely efficient offenses which should lead to a high scoring game. Toledo ranks 9th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and they are #1 in the MAC. The Rockets have scored at least 80 points in 16 of their last 17 games! They are in the top 5 nationally in PPG, FG%, and 3 point FG%. They also hit 77% of their FT’s as a team. On the other end of the court, Toledo struggles. The rank outside the top 250 nationally in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point % allowed. Kent ranks 4th in the MAC in offensive efficiency and they average 76 PPG on the season. The Golden Flashes have been on quite a roll offensively as well putting up at least 70 points in 10 straight games. Kent’s defense is much better than Toledo’s ranking 1st in the MAC in efficiency, however, they’ve held some of the poor offensive teams in the conference in check but the top teams have put up points vs the Flashes. The 4 most efficient offenses in the league minus Kent’s offense were Toledo, Akron, Ball St, and Ohio, and they averaged 72 PPG vs this Kent defense. In yesterday’s games, Toledo topped Ohio 82-75 despite shooting only 44% combined from the field. Kent topped Akron 79-73 and those 2 teams combined to make only 41% of their shots. We expect both teams to shoot better than those numbers today and this game gets at least into the 150’s. |
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03-09-23 | Sharks v. Blues OVER 6.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
#63/64 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 Goals - San Jose Sharks at St Louis Blues, Thursday at 8:05 PM ET - The Sharks are off 6-0 loss and the Blues are off a 6-2 defeat. San Jose has lost 6 of 7 games and allowed a ridiculous 5.5 goals per game in the 6 losses! St Louis has lost 8 of 9 games and given up 4.5 goals per game in those 8 defeats. Both teams are struggling so badly of late to stop the opposition and we don't see that changing here. That said, don't be surprised if each team gets to 3 goals in this one. As a final result then, look for at least a total of 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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03-08-23 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin UNDER 131.5 | Top | 65-57 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
#679/680 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 131.5 Points – Ohio State vs Wisconsin, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - We expect a slow paced, defensive battle as most Big 10 match ups tend to be. Wisconsin is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation averaging only 65 possessions per game (347th). OSU averages just 68 possessions per game which is 259th in the nation. Wisconsin’s defense is very solid allowing just 0.95 PPP on the season (26th nationally) and while OSU’s isn’t quite as good (125th nationally) they should be able to limit a Badger offense that ranks 13th in the Big 10 in scoring and eFG% and 12th in offensive efficiency. Wisconsin has scored 65 points or fewer in 16 of their 20 Big 10 games this season and we don’t expect them to be great on offense tonight. The Badger rely very heavily on the 3 point shot and they’re not great at it ranking 10th in the Big 10 in 3 point FG%. They don’t shoot well at the rim or inside the arc period ranking 328th hitting only 46% of their shots. OSU, on the other hand, doesn’t shoot many 3’s (26% of their points coming from deep – 12th in the Big 10) and their top inside scoring, Zed Key is injured so that will affect their inside game. Finally we don’t expect many trips to the FT line in this game as both rank inside the top 80 nationally in not fouling while both offenses rank outside the top 300 in % of points from the FT line. In their only meeting this season these 2 totaled 125 points and we see s similar outcome here. Let’s not forget that his is at the United Center in Chicago which is a large NBA venue that can be tough on shooters. Under is the play. |
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03-06-23 | Predators v. Canucks OVER 6 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
#19/20 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6 Goals - Nashville Predators at Vancouver Canucks, Monday at 10:35 PM ET - The Predators have had some lower-scoring games but things will open up against the Canucks. Not only that, Nashville has won 6 of 8 games and scored an average of 4.7 goals in the 6 victories. Vancouver off a 4-1 but that was just the 4th time last 16 games that a Canucks game did not total at least 7 goals. These teams recently met and the final was a 5-4 game. The Canucks do have Demko back in goal recently but this is a tougher match-up in this game. The Predators won 60 percent of the faceoffs in most recent meeting and could again control the faceoff circle and be firing plenty of shots on Demko. The Preds been so hot with the goal-scoring in wins but also, the Canucks confidence growing with recent wins. Don't be surprised if each team gets to 3 goals in this one. As a final result then, look for at least a total of 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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03-06-23 | North Dakota State v. South Dakota State UNDER 142 | Top | 89-79 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
#875/876 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 142 Points – North Dakota State vs South Dakota State, Monday at 9:30 PM ET - This will be the third time these 2 have faced each other this year and the first 2 meetings had drastically different results in regards to the total. The first meeting NDSU won 65-59 for 124 total points scored. The 2nd meeting SDSU won 90-85 for 175 total points scored so the difference between the 2 meetings was a whopping 51 points. The interesting part here was the 2nd meeting in which they scored 175 points was just a month ago and despite that high scoring affair, this total opened 143 and has dropped to 141. We agree with the move. The first meeting was much closer to the norm for these 2 teams. Only 124 total points scored yet both averaged over 1.00 PPP in that game. South Dakota State averaged 1.01 PPP and they average 1.05 so not a drastic difference. North Dakota State actually eclipsed their average despite the low scoring game averaging 1.10 PPP in the win and their season average is 1.04. In the 2nd meeting that totaled 175 points both were WAY over their season averages on the offensive end. SDSU averaged a whopping 1.38 PPP in that game while NDSU put up 1.31 PPP. The combined to shoot almost 57% from the field (both average 45%) and they made 46% of their 3’s (they average 33% and 34% on the season). Both of these defenses drastically underperformed in that game as they rank 2nd and 3rd in the Summit in defensive efficiency. You can bet after their most recent meeting both coaches have stressed defense heading into this game. Both teams are poor offensive rebounding teams (ranked outside the top 300) and both are solid defensive rebounding teams so we don’t see many 2nd chances in that regard. We also anticipate minimal FT attempts in this game as neither foul much and offensive neither get to the line very often (outside the top 200 in % of points scored at the FT line). Both defenses showed up in their opening game of this conference tourney allowed 68 (NDSU) and 55 (SDSU) points with both of their games staying Under the total by a combined 30 points. Neither averages 70 PPG away from home this year and we think this game stays in the 130’s. Take the Under. |
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03-04-23 | Wild v. Flames UNDER 5.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
#83/84 ASA PLAY ON 8* UNDER 5.5 Goals - Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames, Saturday at 10:07 PM ET - 14 of the last 16 Wild games have totaled 5 or less goals. Minnesota has scored just 1.9 goals in regulation time and allowed only 1.4 goals on average in regulation time of the last 11 games. The Flames games have trended higher-scoring than Wild games have. However, Calgary still has scored only 2 goals per game last 6 home games in regulation. Given that plus Minnesota's recent low-scoring ways, this game is going to struggle to get to much more than 2-1 and anything more than 3-2 would be very surprising. Look for just 5 or less goals in this one! Under is our play here. |
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03-03-23 | Nets v. Celtics OVER 227 | Top | 115-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227 Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - The average NBA game finishes with 227.8 total points per game. This game is NOT going to be ‘average’ according to our Math Model. The 3-point line will have a huge impact on this game. The Celtics attempt the 2nd most 3-pointers in the league at 41.9 per game. They also make 37.9% of those attempts which is 5th best in the NBA. Brooklyn has a very tough time defending the 3-point line as they allow opponents to make 37.6% of their attempts which is 29th or second to last in the NBA. Boston is coming off a game against the Cavs who own the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA and that game finished with 230 total points with Boston scoring 117. Now they face a Nets team that is 20th in DEFF allowing 1.149PPP. The Nets have also struggled on the defensive end of the court recently, allowing an average of 125PPG over their last five games. We will need the Nets to score in this game too and they should. Brooklyn owns the 12th best offensive efficiency rating in the league at 1.152-points per possession. The Nets are also playing faster with their recent roster change as they average 100.8 possessions per game in their last five games which is up from their season average of 98.6. These two teams met on Feb 1st and Boston came away with a 139-96 win. The Over has cashed in 6 of the last seven meetings in Beantown. We predict an easy Over in this one. |
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03-03-23 | Magic v. Hornets UNDER 225.5 | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225.5 Orlando Magic vs. Charlotte Hornets, 7:10 PM ET - The Hornets are two different teams when they have PG LaMello Ball in the lineup and when they don’t. Ball like to push tempo and play in the open court so possessions naturally go up. Charlotte is the 7th fastest paced team on the season overall but without Ball expect a more deliberate attack moving forward. While we are on the subject of pace, the Magic are the 17th slowest paced team in the NBA at 98.8 possessions per game. These two teams are both bottom 6 in the league when it comes to offensive efficiency with the Magic averaging 1.115-points per possession (25th) and Charlotte averaging 1.011PPP which is 29th. Both teams struggle to score with poor shooting at 20th or worse in the league in FG% and 3PT%. Both teams have seen their scoring numbers dip in their last five games compared to their season averages. These teams met in early February and produced 232 total points, but the Hornets had both Ball and Washington in the lineup, who are out tonight. That game didn’t have a ton of possessions at 174 which is around league average. In the other two meetings this season they produced total points of 217 and 206. With both teams limited offensively we expect a low total in this outcome. |
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03-02-23 | Maple Leafs v. Flames OVER 6.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
#45/46 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 Goals - Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Maple Leafs got hammered 5-2 at Edmonton last night. Toronto will want to bounce back here and the Leafs goal-scoring should erupt here. Trouble is that the Maple Leafs defense and netminding just can not be trusted here. Toronto has allowed 3.5 goals per game in the last 4 on the road plus they used their top goalie last night. The Leafs had won 5 of 6 games before the loss to the Oilers and had scored an average of 4 goals per game during that stretch. The Flames 11 of last 15 games have totaled at least 7 goals. Calgary giving up about 3.5 goals per game in their last 8 but also having scored about 3.5 goals per game in their last dozen. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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03-01-23 | Nets v. Knicks UNDER 222 | Top | 118-142 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on UNDER 222 Brooklyn Nets @ NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - The Knicks are turning up the heat on the defensive end of the court as they have allowed 110 or less in 7 of their last nine games. In three of those games, they allowed 98 or less points. For the season they own the 13th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.140-points per possession. In their last five games they are giving up 1.057PPP which is 2nd in the league. The other big factor here is pace. The Knicks are the 4th slowest paced team in the NBA at 96.7 possessions per game. Brooklyn prefers a slower tempo too ranking 11th in pace, and they are coming off a game last night so they shouldn’t be anxious to turn this game into a track meet. The Nets obviously had a big change in their lineup with the trades of KD and Kyrie and chemistry is an issue for them on the offensive end of the court. The Nets are averaging just 106.8PPG in their last five games which is down from their season average of 113.8PPG. These two teams recently met in mid-February and produced 230 total points but the possessions were lower than league average with just 160 FG attempts. The Under has cashed 22 of the last 30 meetings in the Garden and we predict another low scoring game here. |
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02-28-23 | Blackhawks v. Coyotes OVER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
#15/16 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Chicago Blackhawks at Arizona Coyotes, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - First off, we'll be clear here that regardless of the goalies that get the start here we like the over in this match-up based on the situation and the recent team trending. However, the expected starting goalie match-up certainly is attractive for an over. It is expected to be Alex Stalock for the Blackhawks and Karel Vejmelka for the Coyotes. Chicago is in the second game of a B2B as they lost 4-2 at Anaheim last night and Petr Mrazek got the start in that one. He is the Blackhawks #1 goalie and so it is unlikely we see him here. Stalock is slated to get the start and he is coming back from a long injury layoff. He has been out since mid-January and did allow at least 3 goals in 4 of last 5 appearances. He could be rusty here and the Chicago defense has not exactly been solid of late. The Blackhawks have allowed 3.6 goals per game last dozen games. Speaking of sub-par defense, the Coyotes have allowed at least 5 goals in 3 of last 4 games! That has included outings from goalie Connor Ingram but Vejmelka has particularly struggled with allowing 5 or more goals in 3 of last 4 appearances. Overall, these clubs both have been trending to higher-scoring games and the value of this total being a 6 is huge as well. The Coyotes have played 8 games since February 10th and 6 of the 8 have totaled at least 6 goals. Chicago has played 7 games the past two weeks and 6 have totaled 6 or more goals. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here.
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02-27-23 | Bruins v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -123 | 18 h 3 m | Show | |
#73/74 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 Goals - Boston Bruins at Edmonton Oilers, Monday at 8:35 PM ET - Boston has won 6 straight games and scored 4.6 goals per game in most recent 5 victories. Overall, this Bruins team has scored at least 4 goals in 12 of last 16 wins. They are favored here and expected to win again but the high-flying Oilers are sure to put up a fight on home ice. Edmonton has scored an average of 4.8 goals per game in most recent 6 games. In fact, 9 of last 11 Oilers games have totaled at least 7 goals and Edmonton has allowed 4 goals per game in last 7 games. This one getting to 4-4 would actually not be a shock given all of the above. At the very least, this one has the strong likelihood of seeing each team reach the 3-goal mark. Of course this would mean achieving at least a 4-3 final and we absolutely look for at least 7 goals in this one and a total in the 9 range would not be too surprising either! Over is our play here. |
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02-26-23 | Lightning v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show | |
#63/64 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 Goals - Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins, Sunday at 6 PM ET - Tampa Bay off a shutout win but Vasilevskiy had to stop 45 shots on goal in the 3-0 win. Now a rusty Elliott likely to take his place in goal because this is a B2B spot. Pittsburgh also off a low-scoring win, 3-2, yesterday and the B2B spot means that DeSmith likely to start here. Jarry has been playing well, for the most part, for the Penguins but now he'll likely give way to DeSmith and the latter allowed 5 goals in most recent start. Prior to the 3-0 win yesterday, Tampa Bay had 3 straight games total at least 7 goals and those 3 averaged 9 goals! The Penguins, prior to the 3-2 win yesterday, had lost 4 straight and allowed an average of 5 goals per game. Pittsburgh now back on home ice where 5 of last 6 games have been high-scoring. Those 5 Pens home games having averaged totaling 9 goals! Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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02-26-23 | Northwestern v. Maryland UNDER 130.5 | Top | 59-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
#803/804 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 130.5 Points – Northwestern vs Maryland, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Two very good defensive teams facing off here and both are slow paced so we do not expect many possessions in this game. Maryland is 325th nationally in possessions per game and Northwestern is 294th. Both defensive units rank in the top 30 in efficiency and PPG allowed. The Cats have allowed 65 points or fewer in 11 of their 17 Big 10 games this season. They’ve held their last 6 opponents to 66 points or less. In 4 of their last 5 games NW faced teams ranked in the top 25 nationally in offensive efficiency (Purdue, Iowa, Ohio State, and Indiana) and they held each of those teams to 63 points or less. Maryland is coming off a poor defensive performance vs a bad Minnesota team allowing 70 points on 1.11 PPP. You can bet they’ll be focused on that end of the court today. Prior to that, in their previous 9 games the Terps did not allow a team to top 68 points and held 7 of those 9 opponents to less than 60 points. They should be able to stifle a Northwestern offense that ranks outside the top 275 in eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. As shaky as the Cats are at shooting the 3, Maryland is worst ranking 317th making just 31% from deep. We don’t expect many points from beyond the arc here which will help keep this game lower soring. NW has gone Under the total in 7 straight games and Maryland has gone Under the total 11 of their last 13 games after a SU win. These 2 have combined to play 56 games and 36 have gone Under the total. Big Ten grinder on Sunday. |
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02-25-23 | Pacers v. Magic UNDER 232.5 | Top | 121-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* UNDER 232.5 Indiana Pacers vs Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - We love the betting indicators here with more money and tickets coming in on the Over, yet the line has dipped from the opening number. These teams are two of the least efficient offenses in the NBA with the Pacers averaging 1.137-points per possession (21st) and the Magic at 1.116PPP (25th). Orlando shoots just 47% as a team which is 18th in the NBA. In their last five games overall, the Magic are even shooting slightly worse at 45.9% while scoring just 107.8PPG. Indiana struggles with their shooting too as they hit just 46% from the field which ranks 25th. Indiana puts up 117.4PPG at home this season but on the road that number drops to 112PPG. Orlando is coming off two recent games against similar teams to the Pacers and those games produced 214 and 191 total points. Indiana is coming off a very high scoring game against the Celtics but Boston is one of the highest scoring and most efficient offenses in the NBA. In fact, the Pacers-Celtics O/U was 233.5 and the Magic don’t compare with Boston when it comes to offense. These two teams met in late January and put up 246 total points, but the pace of play was very slow, but they shot uncharacteristically very well from beyond the arc. Don’t expect that here and we like a low scoring UNDER! |
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02-24-23 | Sabres v. Panthers OVER 7 | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
#23/24 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 7 Goals - Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers, Friday at 7 PM ET - Big total set on this game but we just can not see this one being anything other than a good old-fashioned barn-burner with end to end action on the ice here. Since mid-January, 13 of 15 Florida games have totaled at least 7 goals. Those games have averaged 8 goals apiece and our computer math model is showing good probability this game reaches the 8-goal mark. Buffalo has allowed 4.7 goals in last 7 games. Sabres have scored 5 goals per game last 4 games. Buffalo's last 6 games have averaged almost 9 goals per game and all but 1 of them did reach the 7-goal mark. The way these teams have been playing in recent weeks on both ends of the ice, look for at least 8 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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02-23-23 | Flames v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
#15/16 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights, Thursday at 9 PM ET - This is great set up for an over. The Flames were in Arizona last night where they won 6 to 3. They have goalie issue because Vladar was in goal last night and that means either he goes again in the 2nd game of a B2B or Markstrom gets the call here. Vladar was not overly sharp last night. The Coyotes scored only 3 goals but they actually had very few shots on goal in that game. Vladar has allowed 8 goals on just 38 shots in his last two starts. Markstrom has allowed 4 or more goals in 4 of last 6 games. So you can see why Vegas is expected to score well here. The Golden Knights are off a tough, tight 3-2 shootout loss at Chicago. That should bring a strong effort from a Vegas team that entered that game having won 5 straight games and scoring an average of 5 goals per game in those victories. As for the Golden Knights goalie situation, Hill got hurt in his last start and though it was not a major injury and he could possibly go tonight, he did allow 4 goals in that start and may not be 100 percent here. Thompson has been out since the All-Star game. The Knights had even called up Hutchinson from the AHL to back-up Brossoit Saturday. So, as you can see, both teams have unsettled situations right now at the goalie spot. Brossoit did allow only 2 goals in that start but the Blackhawks are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league. Now, whoever ends up in goal for this one for Vegas is facing a Flames team that has scored an average of 3.8 goals last dozen games. This one has the makings of a 5-4 battle and yet a 4-3 game also would put is in the winners circle with this one. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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02-22-23 | Jets v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 101 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
#69/70 ASA PLAY ON 8* UNDER 5.5 Goals - Winnipeg Jets at New York Islanders, Wednesday at 7:07 PM ET - 7 of the Jets last 9 games have totaled 5 or less goals. Winnipeg has scored just 2.2 goals and allowed only 2.4 goals on average during this 9-game stretch. The Islanders last 3 games have totaled at least 6 goals but this was preceded by a 17-game stretch in which 12 of the 17 games totaled 5 or less goals. Both these teams typically get solid goaltending and 9 of last 12 New York home games totaled 5 or less goals before their last home game was a high-scoring thriller. The injury to Mathew Barzal hurts this Islanders team and he is a top scoring threat and Isles have been dealing with injuries to wingers too. Look for just 5 or less goals in this one! Under is our play here. |
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02-21-23 | Ducks v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
#51/52 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Lightning are off B2B losses and are a -500 favorite here. Even the puck line at -1.5 is -200 because the Bolts are likely to win this by a 3-goal margin! That is what the oddsmakers expect here as the line at -2.5 goals is -110 and we do expect at least a 5-2 game here totaling 7 goals but really we could see much more scoring in this one. The Ducks are in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after losing 4-3 in OT at Florida yesterday. Anaheim has lost 5 straight games and had allowed at least 6 goals in all 4 losses before yesterday's tighter loss. This is now a very tricky spot for the Ducks goaltending as they used Gibson yesterday and the #2 guy Stolarz is still out with an injury and did not even travel on this road trip. That means Anaheim's choices are a struggling Gibson in a B2B spot or a struggling Lukas Dostal who has surrendered an average of 4 goals in losing 4 straight starts. The Lightning will go with either Elliott, who normally struggles and is the back-up, or with Vasliveskiy here. Though Vasilevskiy is one of the best goalies in the game, he has allowed 7 goals in his last 2 starts and actually allowed 7 goals in a start two weeks ago as well. This one has all the makings of a rather wide-open non-conference match-up with a lot of open ice to make plays on. The fact is the goals should be aplenty in this one. Tampa Bay, when off B2B losses this season, has gone a perfect 5-0 and averaged 4.4 goals scored per victory. Now they are in that same situation and facing a Ducks team that can't stop anyone. The Lightning will have a huge game offensively here. As for Anaheim, as bad as their defensive play, they are still a decently skilled team in the offensive zone. The Ducks have scored an average of 3 goals in their last 18 games. By the way, 15 of those 18 games have totaled at least 7 goals and we feel certain this one will too! Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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02-20-23 | Kansas v. TCU OVER 149.5 | Top | 63-58 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
#869/870 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 149.5 Points – Kansas vs TCU, Monday at 9 PM ET - These 2 met back in January with TCU rolling over Kansas 83-60. The total in that game was set at 146.5 and the game when Under yet now this total is set even higher at 149. Interesting and we agree on the move. TCU’s offense is a bit undervalued as they rank 4th in efficiency in the Big 12 but they played 5 of their last 6 games without their top offensive player, Mike Miles. With Miles on the shelf this TCU team averaged only 67 PPG and when he came back on Saturday they put up 100 points on Oklahoma State who is fantastic defensively. In fact, the Cowboys rank 10th nationally in defensive efficiency and 15th in the country in eFG% allowed. Prior to Saturday’s outburst from the Horned Frogs, Okie State was allowing just 64 PPG. With Miles in the line up this season TCU is averaging 78.5 PPG. They shredded the KU defense in the first meeting and we expect they’ll do the same at home where the are averaging 79 PPG on the season. KU is averaging 77 PPG on the road this season but shot poorly at home in the first meeting (39%). Their offense is peaking now and we expect a much better performance. The Jayhawks have scored at least 77 points in 6 of their last 7 games and they’ve faced 5 top 50 defenses (efficiency) during that stretch. Defensively they’ve allowed at least 70 points in 4 of their last 6 games. These are 2 of the faster paced teams in the country (both inside the top 75 in adjusted efficiency) and neither turns the ball over very often so we expect plenty of possessions in this game. Over is the play on Monday night. |
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02-19-23 | Blue Jackets v. Coyotes OVER 6.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 53 m | Show | |
#37/38 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 Goals - Columbus Blue Jackets at Arizona Coyotes, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET - Columbus off a 4-1 win but in 2nd game of a B2B so it likely will be Merzlikins in goal since Korpisalo played last night. Merzlikins is 6-15 with a 4.28 GAA this season! As for the Coyotes, their game went over the total by the 2nd period last night! Arizona has scored at least 3 goals in 5 of last 6 games. The Coyotes have allowed at least 4 goals in 3 of last 5 games and plus used both goalies in last night's game at Los Angeles so that will have an impact on this B2B situation as well. The Blue Jackets are averaging 3.3 goals scored last 4 games but you can see why we are expecting them to also concede at least 3 times in this one. Of course a 3-3 game can not end that way and this why we are expecting this one to reach at least the 7-goal mark here! Over is our play in this one. |
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02-19-23 | Ohio State v. Purdue UNDER 139.5 | Top | 55-82 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
#815/816 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 139.5 Points – Ohio State vs Purdue, Sunday at 1 PM ET - When these 2 met in January the total was set at 139 and the game went over the total by 1 point with Purdue winning 71-69. Both offenses played well in that game combining to make 47% of their shots overall and 42% of their 3 points shots. Both eclipsed their average offensive efficiency in league play with OSU scoring 1.15 PPP and Purdue 1.18 PPP in that game. They average 1.01 and 1.10 PPP in conference play respectively. Despite the very good offensive performance, they still only made it to 140 total points. Neither offense is playing very well right now. OSU’s offense has fallen off a cliff. They did score 75 in their most recent game but that was vs Iowa who is the fastest paced team in the league and the 12th most efficient defense in the conference. Prior to that they had been held to 70 points or less in 10 of 12 games and now they face a Purdue defense that ranks 25th nationally in efficiency allowing 0.95 PPP. Purdue has been held under 60 points in back to back games and it averaging just 70 PPG over their last 5. The Boilers will keep this game at a slow tempo as they are the slowest paced team in Big 10 play. Under is the play in this one. |
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02-16-23 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224.5 | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224.5 LA Clippers vs Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - These are two of the slower paced teams in the NBA as the Clippers average 97.3 possession per game which is 5th slowest. The Suns rank 9th slowest at 98 possessions per game. These are also two of the best defenses in the NBA ranking top 10 in defensive efficiency. These two teams have already met twice this season and produced 207 and 206 total points. The O/U’s on those two games were 219.5 and 218.5. Now we get an inflated number of 224 to work with and will bet Under again. Both teams have favored Unders this entire season and historically they’ve stayed below the number in 6 straight and 8 of the last ten meetings. Bet Under |
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02-16-23 | Purdue v. Maryland UNDER 133.5 | Top | 54-68 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
#749/750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 133.5 Points – Purdue vs Maryland, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - These 2 met a few weeks ago and Purdue topped the Terps 58-55 in a very low scoring game. We anticipate another Under play tonight. Both of these teams rank in the top 30 nationally in defensive efficiency and in PPG allowed with the Boilers giving up only 61.7 PPG and Maryland allowing 62.8 PPG. They are also both slow paced teams which should limit possessions. Purdue ranks 13th in the Big 10 (out of 14 teams) in adjusted tempo and Maryland ranks 12th in the conference in that stat. In the first meeting these 2 really struggled from beyond the arc and we look for a similar result on Thursday. Neither team is a great from beyond the arc with Maryland 335th nationally in 3 point % and Purdue ranked 202nd in that stat. Both defenses defend the arc very well allowing 30% (Maryland) and 31% (Purdue) to their opponents. Both offenses rely heavily on getting to the FT line (both score over 20% of their total points from the stripe) but that doesn’t bode well here as Purdue allows the fewest points from the FT line of any team in the country and Maryland is solid in that regard as well. Purdue’s offense has solid season long efficiency numbers, however on the road in Big 10 play they are averaging only 64 PPG. Maryland’s offense ranks 8th in the Big 10 (conference play) in efficiency and 10th in eFG%. The Terps have played 6 games this season vs the top 5 Big 10 defensive teams (efficiency) and they are averaging 57 PPG in those contests. These 2 have combined to play 51 games this season and their Under record is 32-19. Another low scoring Big 10 game on Thursday night. |
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02-15-23 | Lightning v. Coyotes OVER 6.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 27 m | Show | |
#31/32 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 Goals - Tampa Bay Lightning at Arizona Coyotes, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - The Lightning won 4-3 in the shootout last night at Colorado but allowed nearly 50 shots on goal in that game. Not only is that a concern, Andrei Vasilevskiy was in goal for that one and that means now it will likely be Brian Elliott in goal for this one. He has allowed 4 or more goals in 3 of his last 5 starts! The Coyotes can be scrappy at home and should score some goals here because of the situation favoring them as well. TB is in a B2B and the Coyotes have a day of rest plus are coming off a momentum-generating 4-2 win as a road. Arizona has scored an average of 3.5 goals per game in last 4 games at home. But prior to the win at Nashville, the Coyotes lost their 2 prior games by a combined score of 10 to 8. That said, should be more scoring in this one than one would normally anticipate given the situation. Look for this one to reach at least the 7-goal mark here! Over is our play in this one. |
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02-15-23 | Alabama v. Tennessee UNDER 145.5 | Top | 59-68 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
#683/684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 145.5 Points – Alabama vs Tennessee, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Two of the very best defensive teams in the nation are facing off in this one. They rank #1 and #2 nationally in eFG% defense and 3 point % defense. The Vols are the top defensive efficiency team in the country allowing 0.86 points per possession and Bama ranks 6th nationally in that stat allowing 0.90 PPP. They key to this total staying under will be tempo. The Tide want to play fast and they thrive in an up tempo game. We don’t think there is any way the Vols allow this to be an up & down game. There best chance and winning this one is to slow the pace which they prefer anyway ranking 14th (dead last) in the SEC on adjusted tempo (conference games). We’ve always said it’s tough to speed up a team that likes to play slow, especially at home. Both teams like to shoot the 3, but neither is a great shooting team from deep with Bama ranking 125th in the country in 3 point % and Tennessee ranks 231st. On top of that, as we mentioned, these are the 2 best 3 point defensive teams in the nation so we don’t expect either to go crazy from deep. The Vols are allowing just 53 PPG at home this season and their games at home are averaging 130 total points. The Tide are averaging an impressive 88 PPG at home this season, however their point total on the road drops significantly to 76 PPG. Now the face the most efficient defense in the country and in their 9 road games thus far the average rank of the defenses they’ve faced is 81st and they’ve averaged 144 total points in those games. Alabama coach Oats and Tennessee coach Barnes have faced off 4 times since Oats to the Bama job in 2019. All 4 games have gone Under the total and none have topped 141 total points. Going back further, these 2 SEC rivals have gone Under the total 9 straight times. We’ll call for another Under tonight. |
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02-14-23 | Panthers v. Blues OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
#19/20 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Florida Panthers at St Louis Blues, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - The Panthers, prior to a 2-1 SO win at Minnesota last night, 9 of last 10 games had all totaled at least 7 goals. Florida, yesterday's game notwithstanding, has struggled to stop the opposition for quite some time now. Consider last night's game to be a bit of an aberration. Though Sergei Bobrovksy was in goal last night and has been better of late, he is unlikely to start here in the 2nd game of a B2B. If Bobrovsky did start, note that he has allowed at least 4 goals both times he has started the 2nd night of a B2B this season. The more likely starter would be Spencer Knight and he will be rusty after a long layoff plus he has mostly struggled this season. The Panthers, prior to the 2-1 win over the Wild last night, had allowed at least 4 goals in 11 of last 15 road games. The strength of Florida however is their potent attack. The Panthers have scored an average of 4 goals per game last 15 games. This battle with the Blues should see plenty of goals as St Louis had 3 guys come back in most recent game and that was a 6-5 win and they are finally getting healthy again. Similar to Florida however, the Blues continue to struggle to slow down the opposition. St Louis has allowed at least 4 goals in 6 straight games and 8 of last 10 games. In those 10 games, the Blues have allowed an average of 4 goals per game. When these teams met earlier this season in Florida the game totaled 9 goals in a 5-4 thriller! With the way these teams are trending now, this one has the makings of another shootout. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles UNDER 51 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 245 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51 Points – Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday @ 6:30 ET - Our power ratings have this total set at 49 so, in our opinion, we’re getting a few points of value on the Under. Neither QB is 100% healthy with Mahomes high ankle sprain which should be better but will continue to limit his mobility and Hurts shoulder injury which has really prevented him from being accurate throwing downfield. Both defenses match up very well vs the opposing offenses strengths. The Eagles rank #1 in the NFL in overall pass defense and they had 15 more sacks than any other team in the NFL this season. The pressure will be a problem for Mahomes who won’t have his usual mobility due to his ankle injury. The Philadelphia defense has been stout all season ranking 2nd in total defense while allowing just 20 PPG. On the other side, the Eagles run the ball almost 51% of the time (4th most in the NFL) and KC’s strength on defense is stopping the run. The Chiefs rank 8th in the NFL allowing just 107 YPG rushing and their defense as a whole has improved dramatically over the 2nd half of the season. On October 31st the Chiefs overall defense ranked 26th allowing 370 YPG. They now rank 10th in the NFL giving up just 328 yards per game and have allowed an average of just 304 total yards per game and only 4.8 yards per play since November 1st. Last week they held a potent Cincinnati offense to 309 total yards on 4.8 yards per play. So while Philly’s defense has been a strength all year, KC’s has been one of the best in the NFL the 2nd half of the season. KC has played 19 games this season with just 6 of those topping 51 total points (in regulation). Philadelphia has also played 19 games this season and only 5 of those games have topped 51 total points. Thus, of the 38 combined games these 2 have played, only 11 have topped 51 total points. An interesting underlying situation in this Super Bowl is the officiating. Carl Cheffers team will be officiating this game and they have called more penalties than any other crew in the NFL each of the past 2 seasons. Cheffers has been the head referee for 12 playoff games since 2010 and 11 of those 12 games have stayed Under the Total by an average of 13 PPG. He reffed the Cincinnati vs Buffalo playoff game a few weeks ago which stayed Under the total by 11 points. Historically, there have been 55 Super Bowls and 13 of those have had totals set in the 50’s. 9 of those 13 games have stayed Under the Total. More recently, since 2000, there have been 8 Super Bowls with the total set at 50 points or higher and 7 of those games have stayed Under the Total. The last 4 Super Bowls have stayed Under the total and we’re projecting this one will do the same. |
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02-12-23 | Michigan State v. Ohio State UNDER 137 | Top | 62-41 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
#841/842 ASA PLAY ON Under 137 Points – Michigan State vs Ohio State, Sunday at 1 PM ET - These are 2 of the worst teams in the Big 10 when it comes to offensive efficiency. MSU ranks 11th in the conference (league games) averaging 0.99 points per possession and OSU is 9th at 1.02 PPP. Sparty averages just 65 PPG in conference play and the Buckeyes put up only 68 PPG. OSU has lost 9 of their last 10 games and their offense is in a free fall right now. Their conference numbers are a bit skewed due to their 93 points outburst vs Iowa (the fastest paced team and worst defensive team in the league) but outside of that, the Bucks have topped 70 points just two other times in Big 10 play. Over their last 5 outings Ohio State is averaging 64 PPG on 42% shooting and an abysmal 26% from beyond the arc. Now facing an MSU defense that leads the Big 10 in 3-point defense and is in the top 4 in FG% allowed and points allowed, we look for another struggle from the OSU offense. The Buckeyes defense is middle of the pack in the Big 10 in FG% and 3 point % allowed but they should look better than that today vs an MSU offense the just isn’t very good. The Spartans are averaging just 64 PPG on the road this year and in their last 5 games they are putting up only 62 PPG. They have topped 70 points just ONCE in Big 10 play and that was vs Nebraska. MSU has had only 2 of their 13 conference games have 140 total points this season and those games were vs Indiana & Illinois. Just 4 of OSU’s 13 Big 10 games have topped 140 total points. We have this total set in the low 130’s with our power ratings so we like the value on the Under here. We don’t expect either team to reach 70 and Under is the play. |
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02-11-23 | Blue Jackets v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
#67/68 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 Goals - Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs, Saturday at 7 PM ET -These teams met last night and the game surprisingly ended 3-0 in Columbus. Now the Blue Jackets seek revenge in the rematch at Toronto. While we doubt the chances of the Blue Jackets getting a revenging win here we do expect them to come up with a much better effort in the goal-scoring department in this one. Columbus will take advantage of the Leafs in a tough goalie situation as Murray is hurt and Samsonov was in goal last so Toronto's situation in the crease is a tough one here. Also, Merzlikins likely to go for Columbus here since Korpisalo went last night and Merzlikins has been struggling. Samsonov, by the way, was struggling badly for Toronto prior to last night's surprising shutout win. The Blue Jackets will struggle to slow down the Maple Leafs in Toronto but the Leafs have allowed an average of 3 goals in last 7 on home ice. That said, should be more scoring in this one than one would normally anticipate given the situation. Look for this one to reach at least the 7-goal mark here! Over is our play in this one. |
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02-10-23 | Bucks v. Clippers UNDER 227.5 | 119-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
ASA Play on 8* UNDER 227.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ LA Clippers – 10:30 PM ET - The Bucks are coming off a big win last night over the Lakers while the Clippers are rested. On the season, games involving the Bucks have averaged 226.2PPG, but when the Bucks are playing the 2nd night of a back to back they average just 218. When playing on the road the Bucks games have averaged less than their season totals also at 222.8PPG. When the Clippers are at home those games have averaged the least amount of points in the NBA at 213.2PPG. In fact, the Clippers have an Under record of 5-21 on the season with those games staying below the number by an average of -8.7PPG. The Bucks are 9-18 Under on the year when playing away from home. Let’s not forget that the league average for an NBA game right now is 228.6 total points per game. This number is only slightly lower than that. The Clippers are the 6th slowest paced team in the league, the Bucks are the 11th fastest, but will play slower tonight on the second night of a B2B. Both teams rank in the bottom ten teams in the league in offensive efficiency, but are both top ten in defensive efficiency. These two teams recently met in Milwaukee and produced 211 total points. We like this one Under too. |
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02-10-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Rangers OVER 6 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
#43/44 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6 Goals - Seattle Kraken at New York Rangers, Friday at 7 PM ET - The Kraken in a B2B and used Grubauer between the pipes last night. That means it likely will be Jones in the crease for this one and he has been struggling in most of his recent outings. Jones has had 1 very strong start in his last 5 starts but allowed 4 goals per game in the other 4 starts. As for the Rangers, they have won 4 of 5 games and scored an average of 4 goals in those 5 wins. Shesterkin is a great goalie but has allowed at least 3 goals in 3 of last 4 starts. Plus the Rangers could get caught looking ahead to big game with Carolina on deck so Seattle could surprise New York early in this game before Rangers rally. That said, should be more scoring in this one than one would normally anticipate given the situation. Look for this one to reach at least the 7-goal mark here! Over is our play in this one. |
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02-09-23 | Sharks v. Panthers OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -143 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
#35/36 ASA PLAY ON 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 Goals - San Jose Sharks at Florida Panthers, Thursday at 7 PM ET - The Panthers just hammered the Lightning 7-1 on home ice Monday night. This is a tough spot for the Florida defense and goaltending to be in top form (coming off huge win over in-state divisional rival TB) and they should allow plenty of goals again tonight as a result. However, they can take advantage of facing a Sharks team that gives up plenty of goals. San Jose enters this one having allowed an average of 4 goals per game last 20 games. Sharks have scored 4 goals per game last 4 games too! San Jose has been on a long stretch in which almost all their games have totaled at least 7 goals. Sharks 16 of 20 games have totaled at least 7 goals. Prior to a 4-3 OT win at Tampa Bay Tuesday, 6 of the last 8 Sharks games that did total at least 7 goals did reach the 8-goal mark. So yes this is a big total with 7 goals being the posted number in most books. However, don't be surprised if this game gets to 3-3 at some point. Therefore, we look for a final tally of at least 7 in this one! Of course the goal is never a push with a bet but the fact is we get some added insurance here with 7 being a push rather than a loss. Given all the numbers involving these clubs once could easily argue the posted total should be 7.5 goals in this one! Taking a look at Florida's numbers entering this one, the Panthers have had 8 straight games total at least 7 goals and 6 of those 8 did total at least 8 goals! Look for yet another one to reach at least the 8-goal mark here! Over is our play in this one. |
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02-08-23 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 234 | Top | 122-125 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 234 Golden State Warriors @ Portland Trailblazers, 10 PM ET - This is an interesting O/U number considering the Blazers just face Milwaukee at home and that was 241. Golden State plays faster than Milwaukee, in fact they lead the league in possessions per game, they are more efficient offensively and worse defensively. Portland has scored 121 or more points in 4 of their last five games and now face a Warriors team that ranks 16th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.144 points per possession. Portland has the 5th best average points scored per possession in the NBA at 1.167PPP. The Blazers do play slower but they are also one of the worst teams in the league in defensive efficiency. Portland allows 1.165PPP which ranks them 27th in the NBA. Golden State averages 113.5PPG on the season, but in their last ten games that number has risen to 117.1PPG. The Over has cashed 16 of the last 22 meetings in Portland and we expect that trend to continue here. |
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02-07-23 | Knicks v. Magic UNDER 227 | Top | 102-98 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 227 NY Knicks @ Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - Our model is projecting a low scoring game here between two teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play. The Magic are the 17th slowest team in the league, the Knicks are 28th slowest. That is one big part of the equation here as possessions will be limited. The Knicks own the 6th most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.162-points per possession but with the slower pace that translates to 114PPG. The Magic own the 25th worst OEFF rating in the NBA at 1.120PPP and average 111.4PPG. Defensively the Knicks hold the advantage with the 16th ranked efficiency unit, the Magic rank 22nd. These teams have met just once this season and they combined for 217 total points. If we go back 10 games that 217 is the highest combined total points scored in this series. The league average for a game this season is 228 total points scored and this does not set up to be an ‘average’ game. The Knicks rank 24th in overall team FG% and 23rd in 3PT%. Orlando isn’t much better, ranking 17th in FG% and 21st in 3PT%. Easy call with the UNDER in this one! |
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02-07-23 | Sharks v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show | |
#13/14 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 Goals - San Jose Sharks at Tampa Bay Lightning, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Lightning just got hammered 7-1 at Florida last night. Vasilevskiy struggled badly in goal. Now it will either have to be him in a B2B spot or Elliott. The latter is the more likely option and Elliott has not played in 3 weeks. It is a tough spot for the Bolts and they should allow plenty of goals again tonight as a result. However, they can take advantage of facing a Sharks team that gives up plenty of goals. San Jose enters this one having allowed an average of 4 goals per game last 19 games. Sharks have scored 4 goals per game last 3 games too! Don't be surprised if this game gets to 3-3 at some point. Therefore, we look for a final tally of at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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02-06-23 | Canucks v. Devils OVER 6.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
#5/6 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 Goals - Vancouver Canucks at New Jersey Devils, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - The Canucks are off a 5-2 win but this followed a 2-8 stretch in which they allowed 4.5 goals per game. Vancouver did lose their most recent road game 6-1 but had scored at least 3 goals in 5 straight road games before that rare dud away from home. The Devils have won 10 of 14 games and scored at least 3 goals within regulation time in 11 of those 14 games. Don't be surprised if this game gets to 3-3 at some point. Therefore, we look for a final tally of at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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02-05-23 | Fordham v. Richmond UNDER 135.5 | Top | 58-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
#829/830 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135.5 Points – Fordham vs Richmond, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Fordham likes to play at a fast pace, however Richmond knows they can’t run with the Rams and would prefer a slower paced game. The Spiders are the 4th slowest paced team in the A10 and nationally they rank 284th in adjusted tempo. We anticipate Richmond getting the pace they want at home and slowing this game down. If that happens, we expect an easy Under as both defenses are far superior to the opposing offenses. The defenses in this match up rank 91st nationally (Fordham) and 108th (Richmond) in adjusted defensive efficiency while the offenses each rank outside the top 200. When it comes to conference play only, Fordham ranks 14th in offensive efficiency in the 15 team league and Richmond comes in at 13th in that category. They are also the 2 worst 3-point shooting teams in conference play with Fordham making only 27% of their triples and Richmond just 29%. Neither team is efficient on the offensive glass and both are solid defensive rebounding teams so we don’t look for many 2nd chance points. The Spiders have topped 64 points just once in their last 7 games and Fordham has held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 70 points or fewer. The Rams offense has had some high scoring games over the last week, however those were vs fast paced teams in higher possession games. When they played the slower paced teams in the A10 they scored just 43 vs Davidson and 58 vs Dayton. We don’t see either team getting out of the 60’s in this game and we grab the Under. |
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02-04-23 | Blazers v. Bulls UNDER 232.5 | Top | 121-129 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* UNDER 232.5 Portland Trailblazers @ Chicago Bulls, 8:10 pm et - The Blazers are coming off a big road win last night in Washington. Chicago got a ‘W’ the previous night against the Hornets. When Portland has played without rest this season those games have finished with or averaged 227.8 total points. When playing on the road the Blazers score 109PPG and allow 112.2PPG. Chicago at home averages 114.6PPG and gives up 112.3PPG. The Blazers prefer a slower tempo ranking as the 7th slowest paced team in the league, the Bulls are 16th, slightly below average. Chicago has stayed Under this total in 5 of their last six games. In recent games against other similar Eastern Conference teams the Blazers have totaled 228 against Toronto and 200 versus Philly. With trade rumors swirling around the Bulls roster we aren’t sure how invested they’ll be in today’s game. Both have favored the Under this season with a combined 55-45-2 record. The play here is UNDER! |
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02-03-23 | Kent State v. Akron UNDER 133.5 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
#885/886 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 133.5 Points – Kent State vs Akron, Friday at 9 PM ET - The 2 best teams in the MAC squaring off here in what we expect will be a defensive battle. These are the 2 top defensive teams in the conference ranking #1 and #2 in adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. Both are very good at creating turnovers defensively ranking 1st and 2nd in the MAC (both over 20% defensive TO rate) which will lead to some lost offensive possessions for each. Akron has allowed more than 70 points just one time in their 9 conference games. Kent has allowed more than 70 points just twice in their 8 MAC contests. These 2 lead the league in scoring defense and when it comes to pace, don’t expect and up and down game as Akron ranks 12th (dead last) in adjusted tempo in MAC play and Kent ranks 10th. Offensively neither is a great shooting team with each ranking outsited the top 200 in eFG% and both are below average from beyond the arc at 32% and 33%. Not only are these 2 the best teams in the league, this is a huge rivalry which has led to a number of low scoring games in this heated series. 8 of the last 10 meetings have gone Under the total and only 2 of the last 10 have topped 133 total points. These 2 have combined to play 40 games this season and only 15 have gone Over the total. Under is the play in this HUGE MAC game tonight. |
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01-31-23 | Hornets v. Bucks OVER 239 | Top | 115-124 | Push | 0 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 239 Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - The Bucks offense is starting to click. Milwaukee has scored 130 or more points in 5 of their last seven games. In one of those games the Bucks put up 150 points against a Pistons team that allows 1.193-points per possession. Charlotte is nearly as bad defensively allowing 1.163PPP. The Hornets are better offensively when they have point guard LaMelo Ball on the court but they’re also worse defensively. Ball returned for the Hornets two games ago and Charlotte promptly won two straight against a pair of quality teams in the Bulls and Heat. Charlotte is the 10th fastest paced team in the NBA, Milwaukee is 12th so we can bet on a higher paced game. Milwaukee is scoring 127PPG over their last five games but also allowing 117PPG. When these two teams met earlier this month they combined for 247 total points and an easy Over. Our computers are calling for roughly the same result. |
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01-31-23 | Senators v. Canadiens OVER 6.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show | |
#65/66 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 Goals - Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Ottawa has won 3 straight games and scored 4.3 goals per game. The Senators just blasted Montreal 5-0 Sunday so you know the Canadiens are out for revenge here in this rematch in Montreal. The Senators have allowed 3.8 goals per game last 9 road games. The Canadiens have allowed 4 goals per game last 5 games. Montreal has averaged 3 goals scored per game in last 6 home games. This sets up well to be one of those competitive high-scoring battles where each team is enjoying plenty of success in the offensive zone. Don't be surprised if this game gets to 3-3 at some point. Therefore, we look for a final tally of at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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01-31-23 | Mississippi State v. South Carolina UNDER 128 | Top | 66-51 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
#601/602 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 128 Points – Mississippi State vs South Carolina, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Two slow paced, poor shooting teams facing off here in what we expect to be a low scoring affair. Both of these teams rank outside the top 310 in adjusted tempo and both rank outside the top 330 in offensive eFG%. They rank 13th and 14th in the SEC (14 team league) in both scoring and FG%. When it comes to scoring from beyond the arc, Mississippi State has been terrible making only 28% of their triples (355th nationally) while South Carolina makes only 32%. Both teams do a good job of keeping their opponents off the FT line with MSU’s foes scoring only 16% of their points from the charity stripe and South Carolina’s opponents scoring just 15% from the line. The few times these teams get to the line tonight, it won’t be pretty with MSU making just 62% and SC just 64% of their freebies. The Bulldogs are an outstanding defensive team ranking 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 22th in eFG% defense, while allowing just 59 PPG (8th in the country). South Carolina is not a great defensive team, however with how MSU struggles to shoot the ball, the Gamecocks don’t have to be great on that end. On the road this season, the Bulldogs are averaging only 56 PPG, shooting 39% as a team, and a terrible 21% from beyond the arc. With MSU favored by 10, the projected score here is right around 70-60. The Bulldogs have gotten to 70 points since December 3rd (13 straight games) while South Carolina is averaging just 64 PPG on the season and this will be one of the better defenses they’ve faced. Under is the call here. |
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01-28-23 | Sharks v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
#45/46 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 Goals - San Jose Sharks at Pittsburgh Penguins, Saturday at 7 PM ET - The Sharks are off a 5-4 OT loss and just continue to be involved in high-scoring games on a regular basis. San Jose last 18 games have seen 14 of them (78%) total at least 7 goals. Pittsburgh has scored an average of 4 goals per game in last 5 home games. The Penguins have allowed nearly 4 goals per game in last 8 home games. Given the above and the current trending of Sharks you can see why a wide-open non-conference match-up should be the story here. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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01-28-23 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 226.5 | Top | 115-122 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Under 226.5 NY Knicks @ Brooklyn Nets – 5:40 PM ET - This one should be a tight defensive battle with both teams struggling to score. New York is coming off a game against a similar team to the Nets in the Celtics. That game had 220 total points at the end of regulation. Brooklyn had been playing fantastic defense up until allowing Philly and Detroit to each score 130+ against them. Prior to the two games against the 76ers and Pistons the Nets had allowed an average of 108.6PPG to their previous 8 opponents. Both teams are average in scoring with the Nets averaging 114.3PPG, the Knicks are at 114.2. But both teams rank 6th and 11th in points allowed per game defensively. These two rivals have totaled 226 or less points in 6 straight meetings and 9 of the last ten. Bet the Under in this one. |
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01-27-23 | Devils v. Stars UNDER 6 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
#29/30 ASA PLAY ON 8* UNDER 6 Goals - New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - The Devils are off a 6-4 loss last night and will want to be much better defensively in this one. Also, Blackwood was in goal in that one for New Jersey which means their top goalie, Vanecek, should be back guarding the cage tonight. Vanecek has been fantastic and is having a huge season. Speaking of hot goalies, Dallas continues to get strong goaltending and this has keyed a stretch of low-scoring games which we absolutely expect to continue here. The Stars have seen 22 of last 29 games total 6 or less goals and almost all of those 22 have totaled 5 or less goals. The last time these teams met it was a 4-1 final earlier this season. Given the situation here, with both teams off tight losses, look for more of the same in the rematch. Look for just 5 or less goals in this one! Under is our play here. |
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01-26-23 | Penguins v. Capitals OVER 6.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 7 m | Show | |
#5/6 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6 or 6.5 Goals - Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals, Thursday at 7 PM ET - The Penguins top goalie, Jarry, is out. They are susceptible to allowing a lot of goals here and the Capitals will be amped because they lost 4-1 on home ice to the Pens early this season. Of course Ovechkin and the Caps are almost always excited to face Crosby and the Penguins. It is really amazing that in this day and age both Crosby and Ovechkin have been in the league since the 2005-06 season and both have remained with their same teams each in great careers that are approaching the 20-year mark! The fact is that this should be another highly entertaining battle with a lot of goals. The Penguins are off a wild 7-6 OT thriller over Florida as they struggled without Jarry in the crease but did score plenty as is so typical for this team. Capitals take advantage of the Pens goalie situation here but the Caps again struggle to slow down a talented Pens group that also got a boost with Letang coming back in most recent game. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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01-25-23 | Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 245.5 | Top | 120-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 245.5 Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Warriors have put up some big scores in recent games, but they came against bad defensive teams. Today they face the #1 rated defensive efficiency team in the Grizzlies who allow just 1.099-points per possession. The Warriors have faced some similar defensive teams in recent games (Cavs, Celtics, Bulls and Suns) and failed to top 120 points in any of those games. Golden State has scored more than 124 points against the Grizzlies just 1 time in their last 10 meetings. Memphis is coming off a horrible defensive showing against the Kings who scored 133-points versus them so expect a much better effort here. Memphis doesn’t have great overall offensive efficiency numbers on the season and in their last five games they have dipped dramatically in OEFF top 1.127PPP which is 22nd in the NBA. When these same two teams met on Dec 25th the O/U for that game was 233 and they scored 232 total points. These two teams have a strong dislike for each other stemming from the playoffs last season, so we expect both to ratchet up their defenses tonight. |
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01-25-23 | Canucks v. Seattle Kraken OVER 6.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
#81/82 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 Goals -Vancouver Canucks at Seattle Kraken, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - The Canucks had plenty of energy after the coaching change and dominated in their 5-2 win last night. Vancouver should keep the tempo up here as they feed off last night's win but they are facing a solid Kraken team here that is coming off a loss and hungry for a win in this one. Look for plenty of goals from each side in this one as a result. Seattle, prior to a 2-1 loss to Colorado, had won 9 of 11 games and scored an average of 4.3 goals per game during this host streak. The Kraken allowed 3.8 goals per game last 4 games on home ice before the low-scoring battle with Avalanche. The two games between Canucks and Kraken have been 5-4 and 6-5 finals this season. This could be another crazy one. In back to back spot, Vancouver could have some tired legs on defense and their goaltending has not been a strength and the Kraken have been scoring particularly well last 11 games! Canucks, prior to yesterday's 5-2 win, allowed an average of 4.5 goals per game in their 10 games preceding that one. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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01-25-23 | Northwestern v. Nebraska UNDER 130.5 | Top | 78-63 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
#729/730 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 130.5 Points – Northwestern vs Nebraska, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Defense is absolutely the strength of both teams in this match up. NW ranks 19th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and Nebraska ranks 35th in that category. That Cats allow just 61 PPG (15th nationally) and the Huskers are giving up only 67 PPG. Both are slower paced as well ranking outside the top 230 in adjusted tempo. The offenses are another story in this match up. The rank 235th (Nebraska) and 340th (NW) in eFG% along with each ranking outside the top 275 in 3 point shooting percentage. The Huskers rank dead last in 3 point % in Big 10 play (29%) and Northwestern is 9th hitting only 33%. Overall in Big 10 play the Wildcats rank last in FG% and Nebraska steps in at 11th in that statistic. On top of that, the strength of each defense matches up very well with the opposing offense. Despite not shooting 3’s very well, NW scores over 34% of their points from deep (91st most nationally) but Nebraska is very good a defending the arc allowing 32% shooting by opponents. The Huskers, on the other hand, shoot very few 3’s scoring almost 58% of their points inside the arc and the Wildcats are #1 nationally in 2 point FG% allowed at 41%. These 2 have combined to play 38 games so far this season and the Under has a record of 26-11-1 in those games. Another Big 10 low scoring, grinder. |
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01-24-23 | Hornets v. Suns UNDER 227 | Top | 97-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 227 Charlotte Hornets @ Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - This line has already dropped from the opening number of 231 but there is still enough value to be on the Under. Charlotte played last night in Utah and lost 102-120. When playing without rest this season their games have averaged 219 total points. Charlotte is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA this season averaging 1.102-points per possession. In fact, only the Rockets are worse in that category. The Bugs struggle to score with an offense that is 28th in overall FG% at 45.2% and worse yet when shooting from deep, ranking 30th in 3PT%. You may be surprised to know the Suns aren’t great offensively either. Phoenix is 20th in scoring at 112.6PPG and 22nd in overall FG%. They rank 14th in OEFF at 1.140PPP. This line is higher than it should be as a result of the Suns playing 5 straight games against either fast paced or high scoring teams. Charlotte is 10th in pace of play on the season but in their last five games they are playing much slower at 98.8 possessions per game. Both teams have multiple key injuries and will struggle offensively tonight. The Suns recently played Indiana at home, who is similar to the Hornets, and that game finished with 219 total points. We like the Suns to set a slow tempo tonight and a tired Charlotte team will oblige and play at their pace which leads to a low scoring game. |
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01-24-23 | Ducks v. Coyotes OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 101 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
#67/68 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Anaheim Ducks at Arizona Coyotes, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Ducks continue to be involved in high-scoring games night after night. Anaheim has had 8 straight games total at least 7 goals! Not only that, 6 of the 8 totaled at least 8 goals! The Ducks are struggling with defense and goaltending too no matter who has been guarding the cage. Gibson and Stolarz have been the ones in goal throughout this stretch and Anaheim has conceded an average of 5 goals per game in the 8 games. The Ducks have scored at least 3 goals in 5 of last 7 road games and should give the Coyotes some trouble here. Arizona could start Connor Ingram in goal here but he has allowed at least 3 goals in 12 of 14 games. The Coyotes are more likely to start Karel Vejmelka as he is off a strong start and has been getting the majority of work. One of the keys here is Vejmelka just does not usually come up with back to back strong starts. You have to go all the way back to mid-November to find the last time he had B2B starts in which he allowed less than 3 goals in each start. The Coyotes are coming off a big win over the Golden Knights - an upset victory - in which Vejmekla allowed just 1 goal. But in his 23 starts leading into that, he allowed at least 3 goals 20 times! In fact, before the strong start versus Vegas, Vejmelka allowed 3.5 goals per game in those 23 starts and 4 goals per game in 8 most recent starts. The Coyotes have allowed more goals than any of the 8 teams in the Central Division. The Ducks have allowed more goals than any team in the entire 32-team league! Arizona is not known for scoring well overall but on home ice they have averaged 3 goals last 14 games! Anaheim also not known for scoring but have been better of late on the road as noted above. Again the key here is you are talking about two teams that are known for surrendering plenty of scoring and the situation is ideal with Arizona off the big upset of Vegas. The Ducks will see plenty of open ice which will lead to scoring chances in this one but the Coyotes will battle back too with solid scoring opportunities of their own against a porous Anaheim defense. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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01-23-23 | Blue Jackets v. Flames OVER 6.5 | 3-4 | Win | 102 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
#49/50 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 Goals - Columbus Blue Jackets at Calgary Flames, Monday at 9:30 PM ET - Should be an electric atmosphere in Calgary for this one as Johnny Gaudreau makes his return to Calgary as a member of the Blue Jackets now. It has been a frustrating season for the Jackets so far but Gaudreau has 13 goals and 31 assists and you know he will be skating with extra energy tonight for a game like this. The Flames have not exactly been slamming the door shut on teams of late so you know Columbus should get their goals in this one. However, the Blue Jackets are having a horrible season in large part because their defense and goaltending has struggled badly. That is why Calgary is such a large favorite here and this one likely to work into a 5 to 3 type game in favor of the -$400 Flames! Other than a 1-0 loss to Washington in Blue Jackets last 11 games, they have allowed an average of 4.1 goals in the other 10 games. Calgary has allowed at least 3 goals in 5 of last 7 games and all signs point to that happening again tonight. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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01-22-23 | Jets v. Flyers OVER 6.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
#39/40 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 Goals - Winnipeg Jets at Philadelphia Flyers, Sunday at 7 PM ET - Many have to be shaking their heads at the latest roster move at goalie for Philly. Sandstrom is back up, from a conditioning assignment in the AHL while Ersson has been sent down to the AHL. Ersson was 5-0 with Flyers and playing very well while Sandstrom has played well at the AHL level but struggled at the NHL level this season. He is expected to be in goal tonight because Flyers #1 goalie Hart was in goal last night. Winnipeg also had their #1 goalie, Hellebuyck, in goal last night so they are expected to go with Rittich tonight. Rittich and Sandstrom both likely to be rusty tonight. Both teams off wins last night in which they each allowed just 1 goal. The Jets are more of an under team this season but with the back to back situation for each club plus the fact a pair of rusty back-up goalies are likely to be in action, you can see why this total moved from a 6 to a 6.5 as the day went on. This is one of those rare situations where, indeed, you should follow the money! You have the ideal situation for plenty of goals in this one. Philly scores well at home but can not stop Winnipeg either and that leads to a solid win for us here. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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01-22-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers OVER 46.5 | Top | 12-19 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 56 m | Show |
#317/318 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 46.5 Points – Dallas vs San Francisco, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - We were on the Over 45.5 in the Tampa Bay vs Dallas game last week and the game landed on 45 for a very tough loss considering the circumstances. The game should have been much higher scoring with Dallas missing 4 XP’s along with Tampa throwing an interception in the endzone taking points off the board, and Tampa getting down to the Dallas 2 yard line (1st and goal from the 2) in the 2nd half and coming away with 0 points. Needless to say, that game should have gone Over the total. Now we are getting the total at nearly the same number but with a SF offense that has been much better all season when comparing them to the Tampa offense from last week. We like the value on the Over here. Dallas scored only 6 pts in their regular season finale vs Washington but prior to that they had averaged 36 PPG their previous 9 games and scored at least 27 in each of those games. Then last week they scored 31 on a very solid Tampa defense. The Cowboys and their opponents reached at least 48 total points in 7 of those 10 games and as we mentioned really should have been in the 50’s last week. The Dallas defense allowed 15 PPG over their first 7 games of the season and over the final 10 they allowed 24 PPG. They “held” Tampa to 14 points but as we stated the Bucs left a number of opportunities on the field. San Fran should have their way on offense on Sunday. Since Brock Purdy took over at QB back in early December, the Niners have averaged 35 PPG and been held under 30 points only ONCE in those 7 games. They have been held under 6.0 YPP only twice in those 7 games with Purdy under center. SF has gone Over the total in 6 of those 7 games and they’ve reached at least 50 total points in 5 of their last 7 games. The 49er defense has very good overall numbers, but they have allowed at least 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games with Arizona (with Blough & McSorley at QB) being the only team during that stretch that didn’t reach 20. SF has also played the 28th most difficult schedule of opposing offenses and they are now facing a Dallas offense that is playing as well as anyone in the NFL the 2nd half of the season. Both of these teams have the ability to reach the mid to upper 20’s or even push into the 30’s here with the total set in the mid 40’s it’s simply too low. |
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01-22-23 | Maryland v. Purdue UNDER 134 | Top | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
#835/836 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 134 Points – Maryland vs Purdue, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Purdue’s defense has been lights out in conference play which is bad news for a struggling Maryland offense. The Boilers rank 18th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 13th in scoring defense allowing just 60 PPG. In conference play, since their opener vs Minnesota way back on December 4th, the Boilers have since allowed only 58 PPG over their last 7 Big 10 games. Maryland offense has scored 67 points or fewer in 5 of their 7 conference games and in their 4 Big 10 road games the Terps have averaged just 55 PPG. The strength of Maryland’s team is definitely their defense as they rank 37th nationally in both adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. Neither team shoots the 3 point all that well (both ranked outside the top 200 in 3 point %) and both are very good at defending the arc so we do not foresee many 3 balls today. Both also prevent their opponents from getting to the FT line very often, especially Purdue who ranks #1 nationally in that category. This has been a low scoring series with 6 of the last 7 meetings going Under the total and only 1 of the last 6 meetings has topped 123 total points. Both of these teams have gone Under the total in 8 of their last 10 games and they’ve combined for a record of 26-11 to the Under this season. Another low scoring, Big 10 grinder. |
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01-21-23 | Oilers v. Canucks OVER 7 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
8* OVER 7 in Vancouver @ 10 ET - We know that this total is big at 7 but we just can not pull ourselves away from this match-up as it should be a score-fest. The Canucks have allowed 33 goals in last 7 games for an average of nearly 5 goals conceded per game. Vancouver is off B2B losses in which they did not score well but this followed 6 straight games in which they scored at least 3 goals and averaged scoring nearly 4 goals per game. The Oilers have won 5 straight games and scored an average of 5.6 goals per game! Each of Edmonton's last 6 games have totaled at least 7 goals and these 6 games have averaged 8 goals per game. Nothing average about that. The bet here is the over! |
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01-21-23 | Pacers v. Suns OVER 229.5 | Top | 107-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 229.5 Indiana Pacers @ Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - The Pacers are coming off a game in altitude in Denver last night and also playing their 3rd game in four nights. The Pacers don’t play any defense as they give up 1.151-points per possession which is the 23rd worst number in the NBA. Indiana has allowed over 130 points in 3 of their last four games and 126+ in all four. The Suns are one of the slower paced teams in the league ranking 8th slowest but they are better than average or 14th in offensive efficiency (1.144PPP). Phoenix has slipped defensively themselves this season. Last year the Suns owned the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.074 points per possession. This season they currently sit 14th in the league allowing 1.139PPP. Phoenix just faced the Nets and the two teams combined for 229 total points. Brooklyn doesn’t play near as fast as the Pacers who average 101.3 possessions per game which is 5th fastest. This O/U number is barely higher than the league average and we expect it to get there with ease tonight. |
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01-19-23 | Red Wings v. Golden Knights OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
#77/78 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Detroit Red Wings at Vegas Golden Knights, Thursday at 10 PM ET - The Golden Knights are off their first shutout loss of the season on Monday! Vegas will be responding big time here off that rare goose egg on home ice! The Golden Knights are home again for this one and will bounce back but they continue to have shaky goaltending. Thompson has allowed 3.6 gpg in his last 5 home appearances and has given up at least 3 goals in all 5 of those. Hill's last 6 appearances in the crease featured two good ones but in the other 4 he allowed 11 goals on just 60 shots! No matter which goalie goes tonight, the Red Wings should enjoy some success. Detroit has scored an average of 4 goals per game in their last 5 games! Like Vegas, the issue for the Red Wings has been allowing too many goals no matter who is in goal. So we are not overly concerned with who is in goal here because Detroit has given up 4 goals per game last 15 games but we will mention Husso is the expected netminder here. Husso has had one good outing in his last 10 appearances. In the other 9, Husso has allowed 39 goals for an average of 4.33 goals per game! The goalie struggles of both Husso and Hellberg are a big reason that 9 of last 14 Red Wings games have totaled at least 7 goals. Those games have averaged about 8 goals apiece. Considering all the above plus a fired up Vegas team that will be relentless in the attacking zone off a home shutout loss, you have the ideal situation for plenty of goals in this one. Vegas scores well at home but can not stop Detroit either and that leads to a solid win for us here. Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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01-18-23 | Lightning v. Canucks OVER 6.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
#51/52 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 Goals - Tampa Bay Lightning at Vancouver Canucks, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - The Lightning are in the front end of a B2B and have a game at Edmonton on deck so there is a good chance Brian Elliott will be the starter here for Tampa Bay in goal and he has struggled badly in recent starts with 4 or more goals allowed in 2 of 3 starts. The Canucks seem to struggle stopping the opposition no matter who is in goal and so we look for plenty of goals here in this one. The Canucks 9 of last 12 games have totaled at least 7 goals. Vancouver has allowed 4.3 goals last 9 games but also scored 3.7 goals per game last 12 games. Tampa Bay will give up more than usual considering the situation and the possibility of back-up goalie but the Lightning can also pile up goals of their own here. Tampa Bay has scored 4.8 goals per game in their current 4-game winning streak. If Vasilevskiy would play in goal, he has allowed at least 3 goals in 4 of last 6 starts. We look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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01-17-23 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 238.5 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 238.5 Portland Trailblazers @ Denver Nuggets, 9 PM ET - We can’t help but grab the extra value and the Under in this game as the line opened 233 on this game but now sits at the current bloated number. Scoring overall is up this season in the NBA at 228 total points per contest so you can see for yourself this number is much higher than that. These teams can score as they are the 2nd and 9th most efficient offenses in terms of points per possession. But both are also very slow paced ranking 21st and 23rd in possessions per game. When it comes to defensive efficiency they both are slightly lower than league average. Denver though has been significantly better on the defensive end of the court in their last five games allowing just 1.103-points per possession which ranks 3rd best. The Blazers road games this season have averaged 220.1 total points, while the Nuggets have games have averaged 228.4 total points. The Nuggets will do everything possible to slow down Damian Lillard who has scored 36 and 40 in his last two games. The Blazers have a physical center of their own in Nurkic who matches up well with Jokic for the Nuggets. We will bet the value here and play UNDER! |
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01-16-23 | Cowboys v. Bucs OVER 45 | Top | 31-14 | Push | 0 | 66 h 2 m | Show |
#151/152 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 45.5 Points – Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Bucs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - These are 2 of the fastest paced teams in the NFL with TB rank 1st in seconds per play and Dallas 4th so we should be plenty of offensive snaps in this game. Dallas scored only 6 pts last week vs Washington but prior to that they had averaged 36 PPG their previous 9 games and scored at least 27 in each of those games. The Cowboys and their opponents reached at least 48 total points in 7 of those 9 games. Both of these defenses were regressing as the season wore on. TB’s defense has allowed at least 24 points in 4 of their last 5 and the only team that didn’t reach 24 was Arizona with 3rd string QB McSorely starting. Besides their season opener vs Dallas, TB faced 3 other top 10 offenses this season and they allowed 34, 35, and 41 points in their other 3 vs top 10. In their first game vs Dallas they held the Boys to 3 points, however Dak was injured in that game and it was the first game of the season back in early September so not much can be taken from that in our opinion. Speaking of regression, the Dallas defense allowed 15 PPG over their first 7 games of the season and over the final 10 they allowed 24 PPG. The Tampa offense was hit or miss at times this season, however they played well down the stretch. In Brady’s last 6 quarters as QB they scored 47 points, 30 vs Carolina and then 17 in first half last week before the sat the starters. Weather will be cool in the 40’s but light winds and no precipitation. The projected final score based on the total is around Dallas 24, Tampa 21 and we think both teams will eclipse those numbers. Over is the play on Monday Night. |
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01-16-23 | Raptors v. Knicks UNDER 219 | Top | 123-121 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 219 Toronto Raptors @ NY Knicks, 3 PM ET - These two teams have met twice this season with both games staying below the number with 220 and 219 total points being scored. The O/U numbers set by the oddsmakers on those two games were 216.5 so you can see for yourself the value in today’s number. Historically, if we look back at the last nine meetings the most combined points scored by these two teams is 225. All other meetings have been less than that. We are expecting both defenses to dominate in this game as the Raptors allow the 8th fewest points in the NBA, the Knicks allow the 7th fewest. Both teams are also slower paced so we know it won’t be a high possession game. The Raptors are the 4th slowest team in the NBA at 97.2 possessions per game, the Knicks are 8th slowest at 97.8 possessions per game. The Knicks are coming off a road game yesterday and their games average 218.7PPG when they play without rest. Unless both teams shoot well above their season averages, we can’t see this game going Over the Total. |
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01-15-23 | Canucks v. Hurricanes OVER 6.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
#3/4 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 Goals - Vancouver Canucks at Carolina Hurricanes, Sunday at 5 PM ET - The Hurricanes were in action yesterday so Pyotr Kochetkov the likely starter here for Carolina in goal and he has struggled badly in recent starts. The Canucks seem to struggle stopping the opposition no matter who is in goal and, like the Canes, Vancouver was in action last night. That said, look for plenty of goals here in this one. The Canucks 8 of last 11 games have totaled at least 7 goals. Vancouver has allowed 4.5 goals last 8 games but also scored 3.7 goals per game last 11 games. Carolina will give up more than usual considering the situation and the back-up goalie but the Hurricanes can also pile up goals of their own here. We look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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01-15-23 | Giants v. Vikings OVER 48 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 39 h 32 m | Show |
#147/148 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48 Points – NY Giants vs Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 4:40 PM ET - These 2 met a few weeks ago and we were on the Over in that game as well. It cashed with Minnesota winning 27-24 and it took a big 4th quarter to get there. However, watch that game from start to finish, both teams had a number of chances well before that to put points on the board and did not. NY threw 2 interceptions in the endzone in that game and there were 4 punts from right around midfield which usually kill an over but they were still able to top 50 points despite that. Both teams moved the ball well on offense as they combined to average around 6.0 YPP. Minnesota has been an Over machine when playing at home this season. 7 of their 9 home games have gone Over the total. The Vikes average 27 PPG at home this season and that includes their one stinker on offense where they scored 3 points vs Dallas back in November. They put up at least 23 points in every other home game and their average total points scored at home this season was 52.3. The Giants only put up 16 points last week vs Philly (one of the top defenses in the NFL) however they sat pretty much everyone including starting QB Jones. Prior to that they had scored at least 20 points in 6 straight games and they are facing a Minnesota defense ranks 31st in total defense and the Giants averaged 7 YPP in their meeting a few weeks ago. The Giants defense also ranks nearly the bottom of the league at 25th in total defense. We have a feeling both teams will have to keep up offensively here as we don’t see either defense stopping their opponent. Take the Over. |
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01-14-23 | Seahawks v. 49ers UNDER 42 | Top | 23-41 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
#141/142 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 42 Points – Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - These 2 already met twice and both games totaled just 34 points. Seattle scored ONE offensive TD in 2 games vs SF this year – the other TD was a block FG returned for a TD. Seattle averaged just 4.8 YPP in the 2 meetings and had less than 500 yards total in the 2 games combined. SF QB Purdy has been successful but the pressure really ramps up now making his first NFL playoff start. The Niners already run the ball 7th most in the NFL (rushing play %) and will lean on that heavily after rushing for 189 and 170 yards in their 2 meetings vs Seattle. If SF gets a lead as we suspect, the rushing attack will eat clock. The Seattle defense has played better down the stretch holding 3 of last 4 opponents to 21 points or less – KC was only one who topped that with just 24 point. We also think the Seahawks defense has a hidden advantage here as well facing QB Purdy for the 2nd time in a month. They will be the only defense that will have seen Purdy more than once. Lastly the weather in San Francisco doesn’t look great on Saturday with rain and winds of 20+ MPG which will benefit the defenses in this game. These two division rivals know each other very well and that leads to a low scoring game on Saturday. |
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01-12-23 | Cavs v. Blazers UNDER 223.5 | Top | 119-113 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223.5 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - These are two of the slowest paced teams in the league and getting to this number will be a tall task. In fact, the Cavaliers are THE slowest team in the NBA at 95.6 possessions per game. Portland isn’t much faster ranking 24th slowest. The Cavaliers have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the league as they allow just 1.098-points per possession. Portland ranks 17th in that category and give up 112PPG. Neither team is high scoring either as the Blazers average 112.1PPG (22nd) while the Cavs score 111.5PPG (26th). Portland has stayed Under in 4 straight games and 8 of their last nine. They recently played two similar teams to the Cavs in the Magic and Raptors and those games finished with 215 and 222 total points. Cleveland has played a stretch of games against either fast paced or higher scoring teams so this number is set higher than it should be. The Cavs are on a 6-0 Under streak when facing a team with a losing record. We will be on the UNDER here! |
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01-11-23 | Sharks v. Kings OVER 6.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show | |
#27/28 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 Goals - San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - The Sharks were in action last night and was rare 4-2 win as Kahkonen played well in goal. That means Reimer likely to start tonight and he has struggled this season with a 7-12-3 record and a 3.22 GAA thus far. Now San Jose in a back to back too and facing a Kings team that has won 7 of 10 games and has averaged 4 goals per game in the 7 victories. LA allowed 3.5 goals last 4 home games. San Jose's last 2 games have each totaled 6 goals but 8 in a row before that all totaled 7 or more goals and we look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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01-11-23 | Rutgers v. Northwestern UNDER 127 | Top | 65-62 | Push | 0 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
#745/746 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127 Points – Rutgers vs Northwestern, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Two of the top defensive teams not only in the Big 10 but in the country facing off here. Rutgers ranks 3rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and allows only 56 PPG (4th best nationally). Northwestern ranks 9th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency while allowing only 58 PPG (13th in the country). Both rank in the 10 top in the nation in FG% allowed, each right around 37%. Both rank in the top 30 in forcing turnovers so we should have plenty of empty possessions in the half court as neither team likes the up tempo game. Now to the offenses. Neither team shoots the ball very well ranking 241st (Rutgers) and 337th (NW) in eFG%. Both teams rank outside the top 265 in three point % both hitting right around 31% for the season. Despite not shooting it very well, the Wildcats do like to shoot 3’s with 34% of their points coming from deep but that plays right into Rutgers defensive strength as they limit opponents to only 27% from beyond the arc (8th best nationally). On the other end, Rutgers takes very few 3’s but their scoring inside should be limited here vs a NW defense that allows opponents to make just 41% of their 2 point shots (2nd best nationally). This one sets up as a low scoring, Big 10 grinder and we’re on the Under. |
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01-11-23 | Pelicans v. Celtics OVER 229 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 229 New Orleans Pelicans @ Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - This line is lower than it should be according to our computers and we will bet accordingly. The Celtics are the 8th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season yet are coming off a game in which they went 11 of 41 from Deep or 27%. We expect them to have a better shooting night here, even against a Pelicans defense that defends the Arc well. The Pels may be without one of their best wing defenders in this game with Herb Jones questionable. New Orleans is coming off a 132-point game against the Wizards on Monday. Boston is 2nd in the league in scoring at 118.5PPG while the Pelicans are 4th at 117.4. Both defenses are slightly better than average in terms of points allowed per game. Boston is 16th in the league in pace of play, New Orleans is 12th so we know we’ll get plenty of possessions from each team. These are essentially two top 10 teams in terms of team field goal percentage shooting so they don’t need a high possession game to put up points. This has been an Under series of late, but that changes tonight. Bet OVER! |
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01-10-23 | Flames v. Blues OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 105 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
#15/16 ASA TOP PLAY ON 6* OVER 6 Goals - Calgary Flames at St Louis Blues, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - It is very likely that Jacob Markstrom will get the start in goal here for the Flames tonight as he was the first one off the ice at this morning's skate. That is noteworthy as he was pulled from his most recent start after allowing 3 goals on just 11 shots. Markstrom has allowed at least 3 goals in 3 of his last 4 road starts. Even if he does not start we would like the over here as the Blues, even without Vladimir Tarasenko, continue to score well. By the way, last time Markstrom faced the Blues they scored 5 times against him. The problem for St Louis, other than the recent rare strong start (shutout!) by Thomas Greiss in most recent game, is that #1 goalie Jordan Binnington has struggled badly. He was in the starters crease at this morning's skate so he is expected to get the start here. Binnington has conceded 17 times in his last 4 starts so the Flames should enjoy success here. If Greiss would happen to start (odds are slim of that) he was not impressive prior to the unlikely shutout versus Wild over the weekend. St Louis is off the 3-0 win but this followed 9 of 11 Blues games totaling at least 7 goals. The Flames are hungry here as they are off a loss and they have scored an average of 3.6 goals per game in regulation time of their last 7 road games! Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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ASA ALL Sports Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-31-23 | Lakers v. Wolves UNDER 232.5 | Top | 123-111 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
03-28-23 | Oilers v. Golden Knights OVER 7 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show | |
03-27-23 | Bulls v. Clippers UNDER 224.5 | Top | 112-124 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
03-27-23 | Oilers v. Coyotes OVER 7 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
03-26-23 | Creighton v. San Diego State OVER 134.5 | Top | 56-57 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
03-25-23 | Pelicans v. Clippers UNDER 225 | Top | 131-110 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
03-25-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Kansas State OVER 144 | Top | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
03-24-23 | San Diego State v. Alabama UNDER 138 | Top | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
03-23-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Tennessee UNDER 129.5 | Top | 62-55 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
03-23-23 | Maple Leafs v. Panthers OVER 7 | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
03-21-23 | Thunder v. Clippers UNDER 236.5 | Top | 101-100 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
03-21-23 | Wisconsin v. Oregon UNDER 134.5 | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
03-21-23 | Blue Jackets v. Capitals OVER 6.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
03-20-23 | Bulls v. 76ers UNDER 226 | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
03-19-23 | Magic v. Lakers UNDER 231.5 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
03-19-23 | Michigan State v. Marquette UNDER 140.5 | Top | 69-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
03-18-23 | Islanders v. Sharks UNDER 6 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
03-18-23 | Northwestern v. UCLA UNDER 127.5 | Top | 63-68 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
03-18-23 | Wolves v. Raptors OVER 224.5 | Top | 107-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
03-17-23 | Vermont v. Marquette UNDER 144.5 | Top | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 37 h 20 m | Show |
03-17-23 | Kennesaw State v. Xavier OVER 154 | Top | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 21 m | Show |
03-16-23 | Avalanche v. Senators OVER 6.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
03-16-23 | Auburn v. Iowa UNDER 152 | Top | 83-75 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 26 m | Show |
03-15-23 | Avalanche v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
03-14-23 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 233 | Top | 116-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
03-14-23 | Bradley v. Wisconsin UNDER 127.5 | Top | 62-81 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 60 m | Show |
03-14-23 | Canadiens v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
03-12-23 | Wild v. Coyotes UNDER 6 | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
03-11-23 | Bucks v. Warriors OVER 240 | Top | 116-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
03-11-23 | Kent State v. Toledo OVER 148.5 | Top | 93-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
03-09-23 | Sharks v. Blues OVER 6.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
03-08-23 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin UNDER 131.5 | Top | 65-57 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
03-06-23 | Predators v. Canucks OVER 6 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
03-06-23 | North Dakota State v. South Dakota State UNDER 142 | Top | 89-79 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
03-04-23 | Wild v. Flames UNDER 5.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
03-03-23 | Nets v. Celtics OVER 227 | Top | 115-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
03-03-23 | Magic v. Hornets UNDER 225.5 | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
03-02-23 | Maple Leafs v. Flames OVER 6.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
03-01-23 | Nets v. Knicks UNDER 222 | Top | 118-142 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
02-28-23 | Blackhawks v. Coyotes OVER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
02-27-23 | Bruins v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -123 | 18 h 3 m | Show | |
02-26-23 | Lightning v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show | |
02-26-23 | Northwestern v. Maryland UNDER 130.5 | Top | 59-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
02-25-23 | Pacers v. Magic UNDER 232.5 | Top | 121-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
02-24-23 | Sabres v. Panthers OVER 7 | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
02-23-23 | Flames v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
02-22-23 | Jets v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 101 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
02-21-23 | Ducks v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
02-20-23 | Kansas v. TCU OVER 149.5 | Top | 63-58 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
02-19-23 | Blue Jackets v. Coyotes OVER 6.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 53 m | Show | |
02-19-23 | Ohio State v. Purdue UNDER 139.5 | Top | 55-82 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
02-16-23 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224.5 | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
02-16-23 | Purdue v. Maryland UNDER 133.5 | Top | 54-68 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
02-15-23 | Lightning v. Coyotes OVER 6.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 27 m | Show | |
02-15-23 | Alabama v. Tennessee UNDER 145.5 | Top | 59-68 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
02-14-23 | Panthers v. Blues OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles UNDER 51 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 245 h 13 m | Show |
02-12-23 | Michigan State v. Ohio State UNDER 137 | Top | 62-41 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
02-11-23 | Blue Jackets v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
02-10-23 | Bucks v. Clippers UNDER 227.5 | 119-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
02-10-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Rangers OVER 6 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
02-09-23 | Sharks v. Panthers OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -143 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
02-08-23 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 234 | Top | 122-125 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
02-07-23 | Knicks v. Magic UNDER 227 | Top | 102-98 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
02-07-23 | Sharks v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show | |
02-06-23 | Canucks v. Devils OVER 6.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
02-05-23 | Fordham v. Richmond UNDER 135.5 | Top | 58-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
02-04-23 | Blazers v. Bulls UNDER 232.5 | Top | 121-129 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
02-03-23 | Kent State v. Akron UNDER 133.5 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
01-31-23 | Hornets v. Bucks OVER 239 | Top | 115-124 | Push | 0 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
01-31-23 | Senators v. Canadiens OVER 6.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show | |
01-31-23 | Mississippi State v. South Carolina UNDER 128 | Top | 66-51 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
01-28-23 | Sharks v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
01-28-23 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 226.5 | Top | 115-122 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
01-27-23 | Devils v. Stars UNDER 6 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
01-26-23 | Penguins v. Capitals OVER 6.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 7 m | Show | |
01-25-23 | Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 245.5 | Top | 120-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
01-25-23 | Canucks v. Seattle Kraken OVER 6.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
01-25-23 | Northwestern v. Nebraska UNDER 130.5 | Top | 78-63 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
01-24-23 | Hornets v. Suns UNDER 227 | Top | 97-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
01-24-23 | Ducks v. Coyotes OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 101 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
01-23-23 | Blue Jackets v. Flames OVER 6.5 | 3-4 | Win | 102 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
01-22-23 | Jets v. Flyers OVER 6.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
01-22-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers OVER 46.5 | Top | 12-19 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 56 m | Show |
01-22-23 | Maryland v. Purdue UNDER 134 | Top | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
01-21-23 | Oilers v. Canucks OVER 7 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
01-21-23 | Pacers v. Suns OVER 229.5 | Top | 107-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
01-19-23 | Red Wings v. Golden Knights OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
01-18-23 | Lightning v. Canucks OVER 6.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
01-17-23 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 238.5 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
01-16-23 | Cowboys v. Bucs OVER 45 | Top | 31-14 | Push | 0 | 66 h 2 m | Show |
01-16-23 | Raptors v. Knicks UNDER 219 | Top | 123-121 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
01-15-23 | Canucks v. Hurricanes OVER 6.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
01-15-23 | Giants v. Vikings OVER 48 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 39 h 32 m | Show |
01-14-23 | Seahawks v. 49ers UNDER 42 | Top | 23-41 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
01-12-23 | Cavs v. Blazers UNDER 223.5 | Top | 119-113 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 49 m | Show |
01-11-23 | Sharks v. Kings OVER 6.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show | |
01-11-23 | Rutgers v. Northwestern UNDER 127 | Top | 65-62 | Push | 0 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
01-11-23 | Pelicans v. Celtics OVER 229 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
01-10-23 | Flames v. Blues OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 105 | 6 h 19 m | Show |