Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-16-22 | Blazers +11.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 123-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:10 ET): While I don’t think that the Blazers are going to be able to match their most recent performance, which was an excellent 122-107 win (as 12-point underdogs!) at Milwaukee, the chances of them being blown out here in Memphis tonight also seem remote. This is the second game of a back to back from the Grizzlies, who were 121-109 winners last night in New Orleans thanks to holding the Pelicans to a paltry 15.4% shooting from three-point range. You’ve got to think Portland shoots better than that. Right? The Blazers have won three in a row, not only upsetting Milwaukee, but the Lakers and Knicks as well. HC Chauncey Billups called the win over Milwaukee “probably our best game.” Portland outrebounded Milwaukee 58-43 and got the lead up to 21 in the third quarter. That was a really impressive win for the Blazers, who reshaped the roster at the trade deadline as they look to hold on to the last play-in spot, which they currently occupy (holding a one-game lead over New Orleans). Memphis has an incredible first half to the season as they are 41-18 SU, the third best record in the league. I actually have them rated as the fourth best team in the conference (behind Utah), although still better than everyone from the East. I just think that this spot is not ideal, laying double digits without rest and returning home after a three-game road trip. Ja Morant is on the injury report (questionable) with an ankle. The Grizzlies have actually lost twice to the Blazers this season, once by five here at home. Take the points. 10* Portland |
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02-16-22 | Winthrop v. Gardner-Webb -3.5 | Top | 81-70 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
8* Gardner Webb (7:00 ET): I’ve got Gardner Webb rated as the best team in the Big South this year, better than either of the two division leaders: Longwood and Winthrop. Tonight’s game presents an opportunity for the “Runnin’ Bulldogs” to even up the score with Winthrop, for a two-point loss they suffered last month (they led that game by seven at halftime). A win here would also pull Gardner-Webb into a first place tie in the Big South’s South Division. So it’s a really important game and I expect the home team to deliver. Winthrop has a poor ATS record this season (6-15 overall), but has also managed to be one of the luckier teams in the country. The Eagles are 15-8 straight up, but have only outscored opponents by 1.5 points per game. Including the aforementioned win over Gardner-Webb, Winthrop is an extremely 8-2 SU in games decided by five points or less this season. They are 9-0 SU at home, but only 6-8 SU (3-10 ATS) when on the road or at a neutral site. Given all the luck in close games and the poor ATS record, you would be correct in guessing Winthrop has a pretty terrible ATS record when favored. You would be correct as the Eagles are 3-12-1 ATS in the chalk role. They are NOT favored tonight, nor should they be, as Gardner-Webb comes in hot with six consecutive victories - all by six points or greater - and they ran away with an 82-65 win over Charleston Southern on Saturday. Meanwhile, Winthrop is off another close win (65-61 over Presbyterian) and ripe to be “shown the door.” 8* Gardner Webb |
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02-16-22 | Mississippi State v. Alabama -6 | Top | 75-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
8* Alabama (7:00 ET): Alabama blew the cover for me on Saturday, but at least the fans in Tuscaloosa left happy as the Crimson Tide hung on for a key 68-67 win over Arkansas. That win got the Tide back in the Top 25. For a while now, I’ve been pretty adamant that this team is better than its record and absolutely deserves not just to be ranked, but ranked higher. They have beaten three of last year’s Final Four teams (Houston, Gonzaga, Baylor) and faced the #1 strength of schedule in the entire country! Tonight, on ESPN2, the Tide hosts Mississippi State. This is a big revenge game as Bama lost 78-76 in Starkville last month. Alabama led that game by four at the break, held Miss St to 2 of 16 shooting from three-point range and yet still somehow lost. One thing seems to be certain though; Alabama definitely knows how to defend the three-point line when facing the Bulldogs. In the previous three head to head matchups, they’ve held them to 4 of 47 (8.5%!) from behind the arc! That’s insane. At the same time, as I’ve said before, Alabama’s own three-point shooting should start to improve. Somehow they are hitting just 27.1% from three at home this season. They were right around that number at Starkville last month. I just feel that Nate Oats’ team is set to go on a major run here at the end of the regular season and with Kentucky (on the road) looming, the Tide can’t afford a letdown here. They led Arkansas by as many as 13 in the second half Saturday. Look for the win and cover this time. 8* Alabama |
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02-16-22 | Massachusetts +12 v. St Bonaventure | Top | 71-83 | Push | 0 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
8* UMass (7:00 ET): I think that this is a great spot to fade St. Bonaventure, who is coming off B2B big wins over St. Louis. I had the Bonnies on Friday when they went to St. Louis and recorded a 68-61 win as an underdog. Then they beat the Billikens 83-79 at home on Monday (as two-point favorites). A third game in six days, laying double digits, seems like a pretty rough spot for the Bonnies, so I’ll play accordingly and take the points. UMass was able to pull out a two-point victory over St. Joe’s on Saturday. Unfortunately, they just missed out on the covering as they were three-point favorites. Two late free throws sealed the game. Honestly, the Minutemen should just be thrilled that they won considering second leading scorer Rich Kelly was held to only three points. It was also a nice bounce back after losing outright, as eight-point chalk, to GW the previous game. There’s a gap between the top six and everyone else in the A-10 and these teams are on opposite sides. But UMass has the scheduling edge coming into this game having not played since Saturday. The Minutemen have actually won their last two road games, beating LaSalle and Rhode Island.I can’t see the Bonnies matching their shooting from the last two games vs. St. Louis (they were close to 52% overall) and it’s worrisome they just allowed the Billikens to make 56.8% from the field on Monday. 8* UMass |
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02-15-22 | Wisconsin v. Indiana -3 | Top | 74-69 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
10* Indiana (9:00 ET): I successfully faded Wisconsin over the weekend and will look to do the same again tonight. As I said before Saturday’s game vs. Rutgers, I don’t think the Badgers are quite Top 25 worthy, let alone Top 15. Despite being off to their best start in five years (19-5 SU overall) and just one game off the lead in the Big 10 title race, my power ratings have them as the EIGHTH best team in the conference. One of the seven above them is tonight’s opponent and - given the line - it looks like the oddsmakers agree. Indiana is three games back of Wisconsin, both in terms of overall and conference record. But, even at home, it speaks volumes that they are favorites over the #15 ranked team in the country. That’s even on a three-game losing streak. Saturday saw the Hoosiers lose up at Michigan State, 76-61 as four-point dogs. They did not shoot the basketball well (33.9% overall from the field). But this is a much different team at home where they are 13-2 SU and shooting 47.1% Also key here is that IU is holding the opposition to a 36.3 FG% when playing here in Bloomington. Honestly, that’s not far off from their overall season average as this is a top 20 team in adjusted defensive efficiency. Wisconsin is a top 10 team in the “luck” rating over at KenPom as they are an incredibly fortunate 11-1 SU in games decided by six points or less. I believe the Badgers’ luck will “run out” down the stretch. At home and on a three-game losing streak, you KNOW that Indiana is going to be highly motivated tonight. 10* Indiana |
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02-14-22 | Warriors -6 v. Clippers | Top | 104-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
10* Golden State (10:40 ET): The Warriors appeared to be headed for a third straight defeat on Saturday. They trailed the Lakers by six with 3:47 to play, but then Klay Thompson took over and ended up with a season-high 33 points. It was a 117-115 win for the Dubs, but they have still failed to cover five in a row, a streak that includes outright losses to the Jazz and Knicks. I expect a strong effort tonight against a Clippers team that just isn’t very good. Lay the points. The Clippers also won by two points on Saturday, outlasting Dallas 99-97, despite 45 points from Luka Doncic. Doncic had 51 when the teams played on Thursday. That game was won by the Mavericks 112-105. The two games prior saw the Clips surrender 135+ points. They currently sit eighth in the West and I don’t see any upward mobility for them. Not as long as Paul George and Kawhi Leonard both remain out. These teams have not met since November. Golden State has won both meetings this year, by two at home and by 15 on the road. I’m not all concerned about the five-game ATS losing streak as the Warriors had won nine in a row before that. They are #2 overall in my power rankings (only trailing Phoenix) and continue to play great defense (#1 in efficiency). The Clippers just don’t have enough answers offensively to keep pace. 10* Golden State |
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02-14-22 | Oklahoma State +10.5 v. Kansas | Top | 62-76 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma State (9:00 ET): Kansas figures to move up a spot or two in the polls when they are released later today. Currently ranked #8 in the country, that sounds about right for Bill Self’s team. It was a narrow escape vs. Oklahoma on Saturday, a two point win as 10.5-point favorites. The Jayhawks trailed for much of the game before a 15-2 second half run gave them the lead for good. Still, this team is only 2-6 ATS its last eight games and was a SU loser last Monday (at Texas). I’m taking the points here. Oklahoma State rolled to an impressive win on Saturday by blowing out West Virginia 81-58. While that was just the second win over the last seven games for the Cowboys, four of the five losses were by five points or less. It’s been a tough season in Stillwater, with a self-imposed NCAA Tournament ban. But playing on national television tonight should lead to an inspired effort, especially off the big win. The last time these teams played (Jan 4) Kansas won 74-63 despite missing 19 consecutive shots at one point. It was a tie game going into halftime. With OSU holding teams to just 40% shooting for the year, I think they still in this one from start to finish. Kansas is 0-4 ATS this season when playing with just one day of rest in between games. 8* Oklahoma State |
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02-14-22 | Mississippi Valley State v. Alabama State -11 | Top | 85-71 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
10* Alabama State (9:00 ET): I’ve won by going against Mississippi Valley State before and now seems like a good time to do it again. The Delta Devils, just 1-21 SU on the season, have surprisingly covered three in a row. That’s their longest ATS win streak of the season. They didn’t win any of the games, mind you, but lost to Jackson State by four, Alcorn State by eight and Alabama A&M by two. Their chances of staying close for a fourth straight game seem remote, given how the season has gone for them. Alabama State is coming off back to back losses and will be looking to rebound from getting upset 75-70 (as eight-point favorites) Saturday by Arkansas Pine-Bluff. The big difference in that game was Alabama State’s inability to take advantage of the fact they had eight more free throw attempts. Despite the B2B losses, the Hornets remain tied for second place in the SWAC’s Eastern Division. A strong close to the regular season means improved seeding for the conference tournament and this is a must win. Alabama State won the first meeting, 84-75, thanks to shooting 53.7% from the floor. MVSU is just a disaster defensively as they give up almost 90 PPG on the road while averaging just 63.4 themselves. I have them rated as the worst team in the country. Their last game went to FOUR overtimes and that was on Saturday, so there has to be a sense of fatigue here. Lay the points. 10* Alabama State |
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02-14-22 | William & Mary +13 v. NC-Wilmington | Top | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
8* William & Mary (2:00 ET): Save for Providence, I’m not sure there’s been a “luckier” team in College Basketball this season than UNC Wilmington. The current CAA leaders have been an underdog more times than they have been favored and are 9-2-1 ATS when getting points with eight outright upsets. It’s been the Seahawks’ record in close games that has really been the key, however. When the final margin is six points or less, UNCW is 9-2. That includes Saturday’s 85-79 win over Charleston. So the Seahawks aren’t blowing many teams out. That’s fine when you’re the underdog 50% of the time, but here they are double digit favorites for the first time in conference play. William & Mary is second to last in the Colonial, so perhaps this makes sense, but consider that it was just a few weeks ago that UNCW was actually an underdog (on the road) to the last place team (Northeastern). Things may not have gone well for W&M the first time they faced UNCW (lost by 22), but in this early start time I think they can stay within the generous number rather easily. Other than the win over William & Mary, UNCW has ZERO double digit wins in conference play. As I’ve stated before, there are FIVE teams in the CAA rated ahead of the Seahawks in my power ratings. Obviously, they’ve cleaned up at the betting window to this point, but this is a team to fade down the stretch. UNCW has won seven games this year where they trailed by double digits. Four of those DD deficits were overcome in the second half. I’m just not a believer. Take the points. 8* William & Mary |
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02-13-22 | Rams -4 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 152 h 17 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (6:30 ET): Cincinnati has been a wonderful story this season, making it to just their third Super Bowl in history. This is a franchise that had not won a playoff game going all the way back to 1990. But let’s be frank here; the Bengals have been outgained on a per play basis in each of the last three games. In their first AFC Championship Game appearance since 1988, they found themselves down 21-3 to the Chiefs, yet somehow pulled out a miraculous 27-24 overtime win. The Bengals feel like they will be a very “public dog” come Super Sunday, thus I’m going to fade them. I think people are forgetting that this is the second time in four years that the Rams are appearing in the Super Bowl. The last time didn’t go well as they lost 13-3 to the Patriots in the lowest scoring SB ever. But this Rams team is better AND playing on its home field. Now, SoFi Stadium isn’t exactly the strongest homefield advantage in the league. But the Rams are 7-3 SU here this season and know the place well. Let’s not forget what happened in LY’s SB when Tampa Bay, playing on its homefield, destroyed Kansas City. It’s pretty interesting that no team played in its home stadium for the first 49 Super Bowls and now it’s happened two years in a row. The Rams have pretty clearly been the better team in all three of their playoff games. They boat raced Arizona (in this stadium), then went on the road and took a 27-3 lead over Tampa Bay. That game should have never ended up being so close at the end. In the NFC Championship, the Rams did trail most of the way, but also outgained the 49ers 396-282. The big key in this matchup is the Rams’ defense, which is easily the best Cincinnati will have faced this season. Incredibly, the Bengals have faced just ONE top 10 defense in 2021-22! Again, it’s been a nice story out of Cincy, but look for it to end poorly and this team to regress next year. The Rams are simply better. 10* LA Rams |
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02-13-22 | Nebraska v. Iowa -16.5 | Top | 75-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
8* Iowa (2:00 ET): I think Iowa is better than its overall record (16-7) and certainly what they’ve done so far in the Big 10 (6-6). In fact, along with the KenPom ratings, I consider the Hawkeyes a top 20 team in the country. Out of the Big 10, only Purdue and Illinois rate higher in my own personal power ratings. This afternoon, before the Super Bowl, they’ve got a chance to shine in a spot they typically perform well in (16-4 ATS as home favorites of -12.5 or higher) and it comes against the conference’s worst team. Nebraska is the opponent in question here. As I just said, the Cornhuskers are off a win, their first this year in Big 10 play. The win came Wednesday, in Lincoln, 78-65 over Minnesota. That ended a 14-game regular season losing streak in conference play. But the ‘Huskers have still lost 11 in a row on the road. Yes, they have been covering spreads more often than not this year. But Iowa has just two home losses all season (Purdue, Illinois) and is outscoring visitors by 19.4 points per game. It was on the road that the Hawkeyes turned in their highest scoring game in Big 10 play since 1995. The game took place on Thursday when they went to Maryland and waxed the Terrapins 110-87. Iowa is a top five team in the country in offensive efficiency and averages 83.4 PPG for the year. I really sense that this game will quickly turn into a blowout. 8* Iowa |
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02-12-22 | Cincinnati v. Tulsa +3 | Top | 77-83 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
10* Tulsa (8:00 ET): It has been about as unfortunate a season as it can be for Tulsa, who carries the unfortunate distinction of having a bottom five luck rating over at KenPom. They’ve been much more competitive than their 7-15 SU record would suggest. In games decided by five points or less, they are somehow 1-9. This after losing, as seven-point favorites, to East Carolina here at home earlier in the week. The final score there was 73-71, really unfortunate as the Golden Hurricane had the halftime lead. But I think today is the day for Tulsa to break through. They are hosting a Cincinnati team that just isn’t as good as its been in recent years. That was evident when the Bearcats went down 80-58 at the hands of Houston last Sunday and that was at home. They did bounce back against South Florida, winning 70-59 on the road Wednesday. But Tulsa actually beat that same USF team by an even larger margin, 76-45, albeit it was at home. The Bearcats really benefited from some lousy USF three-point shooting (1 for 9) while sinking 10 of their own 21 attempts. This is also a revenge spot for Tulsa, who was blown out at Cincy, 90-69 back on Jan 20th. That was the Bearcats’ highest scoring game all season as they sank 55% of their 3PA. That won’t be repeated on the road where they are just 4-3 SU this season and shooting a paltry 38% overall. Meanwhile, Tulsa has covered seven consecutive times as a home dog of three points or less. Take the points here. 10* Tulsa |
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02-12-22 | Cavs +3.5 v. 76ers | Top | 93-103 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:40 ET): Two teams that won last night are back in action on Saturday with Cleveland traveling to Philadelphia. The Cavs continue to be one of the most pleasant surprises in the league as they are second in the East (!) with a 35-21 record after coming back to defeat Indiana 120-113 last night. They actually trailed by 21 points early on (in the first quarter) but outscored the Pacers 32-17 in the fourth. It was the second time in three games that the Cavs erased a 20+ point deficit to beat the Pacers. The Sixers are 1.5 games back of the Cavs, in fifth place in the East. They beat Oklahoma City 100-87 on Friday as Joel Embiid had his 22nd consecutive game with 25+ points. A dominant third quarter was the difference against the Thunder, whom Philly held to 38.9% from the field, including 6 of 35 from three-point range. That was a much needed defensive effort as the Sixers only shot 38.7% overall themselves and were 7 of 26 from beyond the arc. The key here is that Philly continues to be short-handed as James Harden and Paul Milsap, both acquired at the trade deadline, have not yet been cleared to play. Cleveland could be without Darius Garland (questionable), but remember they just went out and got Caris LeVert from Indiana. It had to be painful for Pacers’ fans seeing LeVert go for 22 last night. This Cavs team is pretty deep as seven players were in double figures last night. They are also #1 in the league in scoring defense. Take the points. 8* Cleveland |
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02-12-22 | Eastern Kentucky +1.5 v. Lipscomb | Top | 73-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
9* Eastern Kentucky (5:00 ET): Eastern Kentucky has been one of the unluckiest teams in the country so far this season, mainly due to a 1-6 SU record in games decided by five points or less. The one win in that scenario took triple overtime and that was a little over a week ago against Kennesaw State. Since that 3OT victory, the Colonels have lost to Liberty and Jacksonville, leaving them fourth in the Atlantic Sun’s West Division. But today they’ve got a wonderful opportunity to get on track against a team they are tied with in the standings. Lipscomb has lost three in a row and 8 of its last 10. Earlier in the week, they fell at Liberty 78-69, but did cover as 14-point underdogs. The Bisons really never had a shot at winning outright though. They were down 15 at the half and never seriously threatened, even though Liberty’s second leading scorer was just 2 of 11 from the field. Something else to consider with Lipscomb is that they only have seven wins over D-I teams and four of them have been by five points or less. So, in what’s projected to be yet another close game, I’m calling for a reversal of fortune for the road team. Both these teams do struggle to defend, but Lipscomb is worse when it comes to three-point percentage, allowing its opponents to hit 37.6%. The Bisons are just 2-8 ATS this season vs. teams that have losing records. While EKY is just 11-14 SU overall, they are the better team here and already beat Lipscomb by 14 points (86-72) last month. Look for them to make it a season sweep here. 9* Eastern Kentucky |
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02-12-22 | Rutgers +8.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 73-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
8* Rutgers (2:00 ET): Rutgers will be looking to pull its third consecutive upset here, having previously beaten Ohio State and Michigan State. They face a Wisconsin team that I believe is overrated at #14 in the country and the Badgers are coming off a big revenge game (that they won) over Michigan State. While this game does not take place at the RAC, the Scarlet Knights should be more than “up” for a trip to Madison, a place where they’ve never won since joining the Big 10. Take the points. Against Ohio State on Wednesday, Rutgers scored the game’s final 10 points to pull off a seemingly improbable 66-64 win. But they were dominant against Michigan State, winning that one 84-63 as a 2.5-point dog. Six of the Scarlet Knights’ last seven games have been decided by eight points or fewer, the exception being that win over Michigan State. So they don’t get blown out very often. In fact, five of Rutgers’ nine losses this season have come by three points or fewer. My own personal power ratings have been much lower on Wisconsin this season than the pollsters are. At 19-4, it’s the best start for the program in five years. But my power rankings still say they are a fringe Top 25 team at best. They have a very high “luck rating” (3rd in the country) over at KenPom. Though tied for the Big 10 lead, the Badgers are only the SEVENTH best team in the conference according to my power rankings! They have gone an incredibly fortunate 11-1 SU this season in games decided by six points or less. This is a potential outright upset. 8* Rutgers |
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02-12-22 | Arkansas v. Alabama -5 | Top | 67-68 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
8* Alabama (12:00 ET): The Crimson Tide handled their business Wednesday in Oxford, beating Ole Miss by a score of 97-83 and easily covering the 5.5-point spread. Make no mistake about it, despite the Tide having a losing record in conference play, I believe this is a Top 25 team. Joe Lunardi has them as a 5-seed in his latest edition of “Bracketology.” The reason that Bama is just 15-9 SU overall - and 5-6 vs. the SEC - is they have played the toughest schedule in the country. Note that before the win over Ole Miss, the Tide had faced Baylor, Auburn and Kentucky, all top five teams at the time. That’s also after facing (and defeating) both Houston and Gonzaga earlier in the year. Holding wins over three of last year’s Final Four is very impressive. But now the Tide must defeat a team that’s won nine in a row and just beat #1 Auburn, 80-76. That would be Arkansas, a team that also ought to be ranked. The Razorbacks hadn’t defeated a top ranked team since 1984 and needed overtime to do it on Tuesday. The game was in Fayetteville as well. As hot as the Hogs have been, this looks like a classic “letdown” spot for them. Four of their five losses, including the last two, have come on the road. Arkansas did lose to Hofstra earlier this year, remember. They’ve shot poorly in B2B games, making less than 38% overall and 25% from three-point range. I just trust Alabama to make more shots here, even though they’ve struggled from behind the arc themselves. But they shot a blistering 60% overall against Ole Miss, including 12 of 28 on threes. Other than a visit to Kentucky, I can see Nate Oats’ team running the table from now until the end of the regular season. Like I said, this is a very good team (they are #20 in my power ratings) and I think they show it on Saturday. 8* Alabama |
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02-11-22 | Fresno State +6 v. Colorado State | Top | 50-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
10* Fresno State (9:30 ET): This is a huge game for Fresno State, who I believe to be better than Colorado State, but the Bulldogs currently sit 1.5 games back of the Rams in the Mountain West standings. FSU is also three games off the conference lead (currently shared by Boise State and Wyoming). At this point, it’s highly unlikely that they can make a run at finishing first, but all that matters is getting into the NCAA Tournament. Right now, FSU is considered on the “outside looking in” in that department, so a win tonight would do wonders for their resume. Colorado State comes in at 18-3 SU on the season. Their first loss didn’t occur until January 8th, but it was by 30 to San Diego State (I had the Aztecs there). The Rams entered last Friday’s rematch with SDSU off B2B losses, but took a huge lead only to see it wither away. In the end, they prevailed 58-57. That was followed by a commanding 82-72 win over Nevada on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Fresno State has been idle since Saturday’s narrow home defeat (61-59) to Wyoming. I’d say the situation/schedule favors the underdog tonight. FSU has the best player in the Mountain West, Orlando Robinson, a seven-footer that averages 19 points and eight rebounds per game. But I think the real key for the Bulldogs in this matchup is on the defensive end as they rank just inside the top 25 (24th) nationally in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Colorado State is only 122nd, easily the lowest ranking of the top six MWC teams. The added rest leading into this game, plus the revenge factor (FSU is 0-6 SU/ATS L6 meetings) have me taking the points here. 10* Fresno State |
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02-11-22 | St Bonaventure +5.5 v. St. Louis | Top | 68-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
8* St. Bonaventure (9:00 ET): The A-10 does not have a dominant team this season. For a brief time (one week), Davidson was ranked in the Top 25. But with six consecutive wins, Saint Louis is certainly staking its claim as the conference’s best. The Billikens have covered the number in each of the last four wins, the most recent being a 75-57 beatdown of LaSalle on Tuesday. But tonight shapes up as a much tougher game than that as St. Bonaventure comes calling, desperate to get back in the race for one of the top spots in next month’s conference tournament. The Bonnies have certainly underperformed for much of 2021-22. Coming into the season, they were expected to contend for the A-10 title. Currently, they are just 5-4 SU in conference play and stuck in the middle of the pack. But a 76-51 blowout win over lowly Fordham on Tuesday was a step in the right direction. The team shot very well (50% from three-point range) and also got a season-high 21 points from Dominick Webb (to go along with 10 rebounds). I think this is a buy low spot on the Bonnies and conversely a good time to sell high on Saint Louis. While the Billikens have been racking up wins lately, most of them have come at the expense of the bottom tier of the Atlantic 10. St. Bonaventure is probably the fourth best team in the conference, at least that’s what my own power ratings say. I expect a tight battle throughout and believe an outright upset is more likely than a blowout loss for the underdog. Take the points. 8* St. Bonaventure |
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02-11-22 | Wolves v. Bulls -3.5 | Top | 122-134 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:10 ET): This game has the highest O/U line of the NBA season. Points are to be expected with the Timberwolves having gone Over in 11 of the last 12 games and the Bulls doing the same in seven of their last eight. But the key for me here is that the T’wolves are dealing with multiple injuries to their starting lineup, putting them at a distinct disadvantage. When they don’t have their full starting five intact, this is a much different team. Now obviously Chicago knows a thing or two about injuries as well. Missing Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso has really hurt the team defense, but the Bulls just turned in their best game in a while, beating Charlotte on the road, 121-109 as 1.5-point favorites. They’ve fallen out of first place in the Eastern Conference, but the Bulls still have won four of seven despite the recent defensive issues. It helps that they are fourth in the league in offensive efficiency and DeMar DeRozan has gone for 30+ points in four consecutive games. The team has shot better than 51% from the floor in six of its last nine contests. Minnesota is coming off a 132-119 loss at Sacramento. Six players are currently listed as questionable for tonight, including Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell and Patrick Beverley. This is the Timberwolves’ third road game in four nights and it comes after playing two (both in Sacramento) on the West Coast. The T’wolves’ offense hasn’t been nearly as efficient as the Bulls and defensively they are giving up 116.5 PPG on the road this season. This looks like a spot where the home team will roll. 10* Chicago |
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02-10-22 | Pacific +33 v. Gonzaga | Top | 51-89 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
8* Pacific (9:00 ET): For the second time in three nights, Pacific takes on a Top 25 team. They covered against USC on Tuesday, only losing by six as 19-point road underdogs. The Tigers won’t have a more challenging matchup than this one tonight as they travel up to Spokane to face Gonzaga, who is probably the best team in the country. But fortunately, Pacific doesn’t need to win here for us to cash, or really even come close to winning. All they need to do is stay within 30(ish) points. Now it’s been a bad season at the betting window for Pacific as their 5-16 ATS mark is the third worst cover rate in the country (ahead of only Morgan State and Marshall). But, as I just said, they covered the last game against a Top 25 opponent. They’ve actually now covered three of the last five games, including a shocking outright victory over BYU. This is an insane amount of points for a team that’s losing by less than 10 PPG this season. Now Gonzaga is obviously great and should have no problem winning here. But with a game against St. Mary’s on deck, will the Zags’ full attention really be on Pacific? Probably not. On Saturday, the Bulldogs did turn in an incredible performance, destroying BYU 90-57 in Provo. But off that game and with the #2 WCC team coming in this weekend, tonight has all the makings of a classic “letdown” spot. Gonzaga’s average margin of victory this season is around 25 PPG, but Pacific is far from the worst team they have faced. Too many points to pass up here as Gonzaga is 2-5 ATS this season laying more than 30. 8* Pacific |
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02-10-22 | Raptors v. Rockets +8.5 | Top | 139-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:10 ET): These two teams certainly couldn’t be trending in more opposite directions as Toronto has won and covered seven straight while Houston is 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS its last eight games. But they don’t call the pointspread “the great equalizer” for no reason. Tonight’s game not only marks the second game of a back to back for the Raptors, it is also their third road game in four nights. Eventually this team is going to run out of “steam” and not be able to win by a significant margin. Look for that to be the case here. Last night saw the Raptors win in OKC, 117-98. They scored a few more than I thought they would (I played the Under), thanks to shooting 51.1% from the floor. Shooting 68.4% in the 1Q essentially handed them the game right off the bat. But I don’t think that kind of shooting can/will continue. The current win streak, and last few games in particular, have seen the Raptors shoot far above their season average. It’s also worth noting that four of the seven wins have been by six points or less, or in overtime. Houston just got swept in a home and home by New Orleans. Incredibly, the last seven games have all seen Rockets’ opponents shoot better than 51% from the floor. You just don’t see that very often, even from teams as low in the standings as this one. Turnovers have been a massive issue for the Rockets, but I’m going to call for a “cleaner game” here tonight and coupled with inevitable defensive improvement, taking the points in this spot seems prudent. Toronto is 8-2 ATS playing with no rest, but only winning by four points per game and while this is their third game in a row being road favorites, it’s just the fourth time ALL YEAR (the first was an outright loss in Detroit). 10* Houston |
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02-10-22 | Georgia State +1.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 61-50 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
10* Georgia State (7:00 ET): The preseason favorite to win the Sun Belt, Georgia State has really languished this season. They are just 3-5 SU in conference play, which has them third from the bottom in a league with no real clear-cut favorite at this point. Those who follow the SBC may recall that it was around this time last year the Panthers had a similar conference record, then went on an eight-game win streak, taking them to the Tournament Final. Do not rule out history repeating itself here in 2022! The Panthers are off a win, 69-62 over South Alabama, last weekend. That was their third win in the last four games. What needs to be noted with GSU is how unlucky they have been for much of this season. They’ve lost a couple overtime games and also a one-point game to Appalachian State, the team currently in first place. One of those two OT losses was to Coastal Carolina, who the Panthers face again tonight. I smell a big win in this revenge spot as Georgia State was an atrocious 3 of 28 from three-point range in that first meeting, a performance that will certainly be improved upon here. Second leading scorer Kane Williams was 1 of 13 overall from the field in that first meeting. Georgia State’s shooting has been a bit of an issue all season, but like I said, you get the sense it will improve. Also, opponents cannot continue making almost 40% from three-point range against them. In this particular situation, look for a massive turnaround from the first game when Coastal Carolina shot 45.5% from behind the arc. By the way, the Chanticleers have dropped two straight coming into tonight, 69-64 at Texas State on Saturday and 73-66 to Arkansas State here at home. 10* Georgia State |
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02-09-22 | Louisville +7.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 57-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
8* Louisville (7:00 ET): The Cardinals were a real “dud” play for me on Saturday as they got waxed up in Syracuse 92-69. They never really were in it, as the game was 43-26 at halftime and Syracuse shot the lights out, including making 9 of its first 10 field goal attempts. What was so disappointing about that (lack of) effort from the Louisville side is that the two previous games had seen them “hang tough” with Duke and North Carolina. I know it’s been “tough times” for this program of late, with a coaching change and five straight losses. But leading scorer Malik Williams is set to return (from suspension) tonight. Meanwhile, Notre Dame cannot possibly play any better than it did Saturday at NC State. The Fighting Irish not only shot 53% from the floor themselves, but also held the Wolfpack under 30%. It wound up being a 12-point win in Raleigh, which was ND’s second straight road win after also upsetting Miami in Coral Gables earlier last week. But this team can certainly “run hot and cold.” In their last home game, the Irish only made 27.9% from the field and lost 57-43 to Duke. That’s their only loss in the past seven games, but also make note that three of the wins were by four points or less (one of them against Howard!). Williams being back is huge for L’ville as not only is he the team’s leading scorer, but he is also the leading rebounder. Even without him, the Cardinals took North Carolina to overtime last week. The game vs. Duke was even with seven minutes to go. Looking at each team’s most recent game, in my view, there’s no way Louisville’s defensive numbers won’t improve while at the same time ND’s will certainly regress. Take the points here. 8* Louisville |
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02-09-22 | Richmond -1 v. George Mason | Top | 84-87 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
10* Richmond (7:00 ET): The Atlantic 10 is an interesting league as there’s no dominant team and I think as many as six teams could win the Conference Tournament next month. One of those six is Richmond, who until recently was looking pretty “dead in the water.” But the Spiders have rattled off six wins in their last seven games. If not for a buzzer beater by Davidson and a couple of last minute shots by VCU, then Richmond would be entering tonight’s game vs. George Mason on a nine-game win streak. These teams just met Monday with Richmond prevailing 62-59 at home. They did so despite shooting below 40% for the game. I’m a little surprised how subpar the Spiders’ shooting has been for much of this season, particularly from three-point range, but there were certainly signs of “heating up” in previous wins over St. Bonaventure and Duquesne. Opponents have also shot much better than expected for much of the A-10 campaign. My view is that we’re going to see these numbers start to move in Richmond’s favor down the stretch. The Spiders did not cover the spread on Monday as 7.5-point favorites, but led most of the second half (were up by 10 at one point). It was a deserved win after losing five of its previous seven games decided by six points. All we need is a win here over a George Mason team that may be “mentally beaten” after three straight losses by five points or less (one in double overtime). GMU didn’t have its leading scorer (Josh Oduro) Monday because of a concussion and he is questionable here. Regardless, I like Richmond to get the cash. 10* Richmond |
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02-09-22 | Hampton v. North Carolina-Asheville -10 | Top | 53-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
8* UNC Asheville (6:30 ET): I took UNC Asheville last Wednesday, in a big spot, as they were a short home dog facing the #1 team in the Big South. Unfortunately, that play didn’t go as planned as the Bulldogs lost 56-48 to Longwood. Then they lost again Saturday, this time in a high-scoring game, 91-83 to High Point. That went to overtime. Most of this team’s decisions have come down to the wire in conference play. They’ve played three overtime games and lost two of them, plus there have been two other losses by a combined three points. The eight-point defeat to Longwood last week actually represents Asheville’s worst margin of defeat in conference play, for a game ending in regulation. Now they’ve also won a few close ones too. Their last win, which was on 1/29, came by a single point over Presbyterian. So all but ONE of the Bulldogs’ 10 conference games have been decided by eight points or less. The exception was an 82-59 win over Charleston Southern, back on Jan 8th. I expect tonight’s game, against a weak Hampton team, to go like that one did. Hampton, who has yet to be favored in a single Big South game this year, is off an upset win over Presbyterian on Monday. That win over Presbyterian came at home. Now on the road, playing for the second time in three days, it’s tough to see Hampton competing tonight. The Pirates are 1-4 SU/ATS with just one day of rest between games this season, while being outscored by double digits. They also haven’t won B2B games since early December and have just two road wins all year. Averaging only 58.4 PPG away from home this year isn’t an encouraging sign either. Hampton is a horrible three-point shooting team (28% for the year!) and UNC Asheville holds teams to 27.6% (for the year!) from behind the arc. This is a classic “get well game” for the home team. 8* UNC Asheville |
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02-08-22 | Air Force v. UNLV -10 | Top | 44-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
8* UNLV (10:00 ET): The Runnin’ Rebels are off an ugly 90-75 road loss where they let Utah State shoot 64% from the field. But this is a MUCH different team at home where they are 11-4 SU on the season. Their only two home losses in conference play came to a couple of the Mountain West’s “big boys” - San Diego State and Fresno State. It’s a much weaker opponent coming to the Thomas & Mack Center on Tuesday and the Rebels actually have revenge for a 69-62 loss in Colorado Springs earlier this year. Air Force is coming off TWO straight games where they didn't play any defense. They too let Utah State shoot north of 60% and then on Saturday, at home, they let New Mexico score 91 points on 58.9% shooting. Such a lack of defense is a real problem when you only average 60 PPG like the Flyboys do. The first game vs. UNLV, where they finished with 69 points, was the AFA’s highest scoring game of the conference slate. They shot 50% at home and it also helped that the Rebels were only 4 of 15 from three-point range. I don’t see those kinds of percentages existing again in tonight’s rematch, so expect a big UNLV win. Defensively, the Rebels are only allowing 62.5 PPG at home. This is a team that recently went to Colorado State and won 88-74 as a 15-point dog. Leading scorer Bryce Hamilton has been on a real roll of late, scoring 30+ points in four of the last six games. Air Force simply lacks the firepower to come into Vegas and compete. They’ve lost 28 of the L30 games here. Lay the points. 8* UNLV |
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02-08-22 | Clippers v. Grizzlies -8.5 | Top | 109-135 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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02-08-22 | Ohio +3.5 v. Toledo | Top | 62-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
10* Ohio (7:00 ET): This is the biggest regular season game in the MAC for 2021-22. Ohio is 10-1 in conference play while Toledo is 10-2. The conference leading Bobcats’ only loss to a MAC team this season came on January 21st, at home, and it was 87-69 to Toledo. The Rockets shot a blistering 59% that day in Athens. It is Ohio’s only home loss of the season and only loss period since Dec 1. Now they get a chance at revenge and can hand Toledo’s its first home loss. I’m taking the points in this one. Other than Toledo, the only other teams to defeat Ohio this season are LSU and Kentucky. So this is a very talented team. Since the loss to Toledo, the Bobcats have won five in a row, all by double digits. I love the idea of the better team, playing with revenge, getting points. A win here obviously gives the Bobcats a two-game cushion, but a loss would all but hand Toledo the regular season championship. So, like I said, this is a huge game for both teams. Ohio is 6-2 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss. While Ohio is coming off three home wins in a five-day span, Toledo was upset on Friday, losing 93-83 at Ball State as nine-point favorites. That ended the Rockets’ nine-game SU and ATS win streak. They trailed by as many as 20 in the 1H. For this game, not only do I NOT think Toledo will be able to match its torrid shooting from the previous meeting, but you should look for Ohio to shoot a lot better from three-point range. In that first meeting, the Bobcats were just 8 of 29 (27.6%) on threes and for the season teams are shooting just 30.3% from behind the arc against Toledo. That’s pretty preposterous. 10* Ohio |
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02-08-22 | Western Michigan v. Miami-OH -10.5 | Top | 57-62 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
8* Miami OH (7:00 ET): While the MAC will see its top two teams (Ohio and Toledo) battle on Tuesday, we’ve also got this matchup of the two bottom teams in the conference standings. There’s really no sugarcoating how miserable this season has been for both Western Michigan and Miami Ohio. The former is 4-19 straight up and has not won a game since 12/17 against Aquinas (non-board team). That’s 13 straight losses for the Broncos, who have only two wins against D-I opponents all season. Meanwhile, despite losing five a row, Miami has been a bit better than WMU. They have three MAC wins. But the RedHawks’ problem has been the betting window where they have not covered a single game since the conference opener, 12/29 vs. Buffalo! It’s a 10-game ATS losing streak entering Tuesday. I can’t remember the last time I saw a drought longer than that. You might be wondering, given Miami’s ATS skid, how I could possibly consider laying this many points. Well, Western Michigan is just that bad. Miami won the first meeting 70-62, but (obviously) did not cover. They were 10-point favorites on the road. But we’re actually getting a GREAT number with them here at home as the line is basically unchanged (from the first meeting) despite the change in venue. Western Michigan has not won a single road game all season, losing all 11 by an average of 20.6 PPG. Miami was only 5 of 21 from three-point range in the first meeting. After B2B rough shooting games vs. Akron, the RedHawks will find their touch here against a downtrodden opponent whose L5 losses have all been by double digits. 8* Miami OH |
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02-07-22 | Raptors -2.5 v. Hornets | Top | 116-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:10 ET): Teams trending in different directions meet Monday in Charlotte. The Raptors are 5-0 SU/ATS their last five games while the Hornets are 1-4 SU/ATS. After four straight close wins, one when I took them against Chicago, the Raptors beat Atlanta 125-114 on Friday. That was their second win over a Hawks team that is 8-3 SU its last 11 games. Toronto shot 56.8% from the floor, including 17 of 27 from three-point range. They’ve climbed into the top six in the Eastern Conference standings. Charlotte’s last two losses, to Cleveland and Miami, both occurred here at home. The Hornets held second half leads in both games, but really wilted Saturday vs. the Heat, eventually losing 104-86. Gordon Hayward was scoreless, on 0 for 7 shooting, in his second game back from an ankle injury. Let’s also not forget that Charlotte is dead last in the East in scoring defense, giving up 114.2 PPG. Thus, it’s a major concern that they are averaging just 96 PPG themselves over the last four contests. These teams met two weeks ago, north of the border, and the Raptors won 125-113. It was another efficient offensive game as the Raptors shot 52.4% and made 16 threes. Look for them to continue to roll tonight. 10* Toronto |
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02-07-22 | Lafayette v. Navy -9.5 | Top | 44-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
10* Navy (7:00 ET): I think that we’re getting a pretty good value here on the Midshipmen, who defeated Lafayette earlier this season, 69-55 as an eight-point road favorite. Having to lay an only slightly larger number with them at home, against the same opponent, seems like a steal. Now the Middies are just 2-6 ATS since beating Lafayette with four games decided by two points or less. But this is where they start to “set sail” again. They have the most conference wins (8) of any team in the Patriot League currently. Last week saw Lafayette win twice, but both games were at home. The Leopards were just 5-14 SU overall and 2-6 in conference play before picking up those two wins. Saturday’s victory over Bucknell went to OT and was decided on a layup with two seconds to go. Should be noted that Bucknell, who is in last place in the Patriot League, went just 8 of 19 from the free throw line in that game. Since November, Lafayette has just one road win and it came against American U, who is 6-16 SU this season. After suffering a shocking one-point loss to Lehigh last Wednesday, Navy bounced back with a one-point win over Loyola MD on Saturday. The team’s last three games have all been decided in the final 15 seconds and come down to the final possession. But I’m laying the points here because I expect a strong effort at the defensive end, as per usual from Navy, who allows just 60.3 PPG. Lafayette is shooting below 40% away from home this year and averaging just 61.8 points. 10* Navy |
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02-07-22 | Virginia +12 v. Duke | Top | 69-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
8* Virginia (7:00 ET): Duke is coming off a huge win, 87-67 over North Carolina, which was Coach K’s final trip to Chapel Hill. We know the Blue Devils are good, but by the time this game tips off (and the new rankings are out), I suspect they’ll be ranked a little higher than where I have them. The ACC is not particularly strong this year, as no other team in the conference is even ranked. But look out for Virginia in this spot as the Hoos have posted B2B wins and held three of their last four opponents under 60 points. This is clearly a “flat” spot for Duke, who just waxed its rival by 20 points on national television. Something to take note of with the Blue Devils is how poorly teams have shot against them. Opponents are hitting just 30% from three-point range and while some of the credit has to go to their length on the perimeter, a lot of these missed shots have been open looks. On the flip side, Duke just shot almost 58% against UNC. I just think these ridiculous shooting numbers are due for a “correction.” Virginia just shot 60% in an impressive double digit victory over Miami on Saturday. They won 71-58 despite allowing the ‘Canes to shoot 54%. As per usual, Tony Bennett’s team is playing very slow. They are dead last in the country in adjusted tempo, which is a great way to keep favored Duke in check here and limit the offensive damage. Five of the last seven Virginia-Duke games have been decided by two points or less. The underdog is on a 23-8-1 ATS run in this ACC rivalry. 8* Virginia |
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02-07-22 | NC-Wilmington v. Hofstra -7.5 | Top | 71-73 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
8* Hofstra (5:00 ET): UNC Wilmington has been one of the most surprising - and luckiest - teams in all of College Basketball this season. The Seahawks, despite recently taking their first conference loss, still lead the CAA with a 10-1 record. But they’ve gotten to the summit with a lot of “smoke and mirrors.” Prior to shooting almost 62% from the field against hapless William & Mary on Saturday, the Seahawks’ previous 12 wins over D-I competition had all been by eight points or fewer. Two of the wins required overtime while two others were by a combined three points. It’s not like UNC Wilmington is racing out to big leads and holding on either. Incredibly, they have trailed by double digits in NINE of their 14 wins over D-I opponents this year! That is preposterous. One of those nine occasions came against tonight’s opponent, Hofstra, who built a 15-point first half lead (on the road!) back on 1/29, only to lose 78-72 as a four-point favorite. The Pride only made 3 of 18 three-point attempts that day while UNCW was 10 of 27. Hofstra is one of FIVE CAA teams rated higher than UNCW over at KenPom. Incredibly, neither the KenPom ratings nor my own consider the Seahawks a top 200 team in the country right now! The performance they turned in Saturday vs. W&M was NOT the norm. Last Thursday, they were beaten by 13 at Elon. Another area where UNCW has been extremely fortunate is free throws. Opponents are shooting just 68.8% from the charity stripe this season! Well, Hofstra is 80.7% there. The home team has had this one circled for two weeks. Lay the points. 8* Hofstra |
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02-06-22 | Wyoming v. Fresno State -3 | Top | 61-59 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
10* Fresno State (7:00 ET): The Mountain West is a fairly strong league this season as you’ve got six quality teams, four of which are currently projected to be in the NCAA Tournament. Fresno State is currently on the WRONG side of the “bubble,” despite having the fourth best record in the conference. The Bulldogs are playing well right now as they’re off B2B blowout victories (by 30 and 17) and getting this key matchup vs. second place Wyoming at home is pretty huge. I’m laying the short number. When analyzing the top six in the MWC, what separates some from the herd is defense. Three of these teams are 24th or better in adjusted defensive efficiency and FSU is one of those three. (San Diego State and Boise State are actually both in the top seven with SDSU #1!). The Bulldogs are giving up only 57.5 PPG on the season and 54.5 at home (where they are 11-1 SU). In terms of scoring defense, FSU is top five NATIONALLY. They just don’t give up many points and I think that trend will continue tonight. Wyoming is only 108th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Right now, the Cowboys are running neck and neck with Boise State for first place (two back in the win column), but KenPom actually has Fresno State rated higher. The Pokes are coming off two huge wins, both at home, over Colorado State and Boise State. This feels like a letdown spot for them and the “glacial” pace at which Fresno plays at (third slowest in the country!) will give the road team problems in this one. Wyoming could easily be 0-4 in conference road games as both SU wins were by two points each. 10* Fresno State |
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02-06-22 | 76ers -1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 119-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (3:40 ET): The 76ers have lost two in a row. These losses leave them fifth in the East, but only two games out of first. Tied for first (with Miami) is Chicago, but I’m not banking on the Bulls finishing atop the heap. Five teams, the Sixers among them, have better point differentials over the course of the season. You may recall that just recently (Thursday), I played against the Bulls when they went to Toronto. They lost there, 127-120 in overtime, as a 4.5-point dog. It was impressive that they were able to bounce back the following night and beat the Pacers 122-115 on the road. But I see a downturn coming. Five of the last six games have seen Chicago shoot better than 51% from the floor. That’s quite the stretch of hot shooting and in my view, it’s likely to subside. Something to take note of is the Bulls are tied for 19th in defensive efficiency and give up 109.7 points per game. So it’s been imperative that they shoot as well as they have. But if the hot shooting starts to curtail, then the lack of defense probably means trouble. Case in point; they’ve shot poorly in two losses to Philly this season. The last time these teams met was back in November, but the Bulls made only 40.2% of their FG attempts and lost 114-105 here at home. They also lost 103-98 in Philly two days prior. In the two losses, they’ve gone just 13 of 50 from three-point range. The Sixers got off to a hot start in Dallas Friday night, but scored only 35 points in the 2H, mostly facing a zone. I just think the Sixers are better (notable they’re favored!), especially seeing as the Bulls will probably be short-handed. Philly has beaten Chicago nine straight times. 8* Philadelphia |
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02-06-22 | Maryland +9.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 67-82 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
8* Maryland (1:00 ET): There was a time, earlier this season, that the Terrapins found themselves in the Top 25. I didn’t necessarily agree with that, so it’s not shocking (to me) that they’ve been a bit of a “middling” team. But they should be better than 3-8 SU in the Big 10. The Terps have lost a few close ones, most recently 65-63 to Michigan State on Tuesday, that have cost them. I like this spot for them as they are getting a lot of points and Ohio State could be rusty after a week-long layoff. Take the points. Ohio State hasn’t played since last Sunday when they lost 81-78 at Purdue. The reason for this latest layoff was actually inclement weather, not COVID, as Thursday’s scheduled game vs. Iowa had to be postponed. Don’t be fooled by the fact the Buckeyes only lost by three at Purdue last week as they actually trailed by as many as 20 points in that one. The team is a perfect 9-0 SU here in Columbus, but their last two conference games here were both decided by single digits. I expect a slow start from OSU this afternoon. More often than not, Maryland is competitive. Their two losses to ranked teams have been by a total of three points. They also beat Illinois (by 16!) a couple weeks ago. I like the fact that the Terrapins lead the conference in free throws made and are second in attempts. The team has actually been better on the road than at home, at least in Big 10 play, so far. "I'm excited. We've been playing well on the road," Terrapins guard Eric Ayala said. "I'm looking forward to going out there and competing at a high level." 8* Maryland |
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02-05-22 | Suns v. Wizards +8.5 | Top | 95-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): For the Suns and Wizards, the last month or so has gone quite differently. Phoenix has raced to the best record in the NBA at 41-10 SU while Washington has fallen off and is now three games below .500, outside the top 10 in the East. But this is a lot of points that the Wizards are getting at home tonight. They just won for us, upsetting Philadelphia on the road Wednesday, 106-103 as a 10.5-point underdog. The Suns are off their first loss in more than three weeks. This is a good spot to take the points. Now Washington’s only two wins since Jan 12 have both come against the Sixers. They also beat them 117-98 on Jan 17. That’s still the last time the Wizards won a home game. Let it be known though that four of their five straight losses in the Nation’s capital have been by five points or less. Bradley Beal may be out, but Kyle Kuzma stepped up with 24 points on Weds, leading five players in double figures. This team averages just over 110 PPG at home, so I’m not worried about the offense here. Phoenix just gave up 124 points in its loss to Atlanta Thursday. That ended an 11-game win streak. Everyone is going to be expecting the Suns to get back in the win column here, but this feels like a total “letdown” spot as they’ve got “bigger games” (at Chicago and Philadelphia) on deck. When these teams met earlier this year, Phoenix was favored by only nine at home. I believe the home dog will play surprisingly well in this spot. 10* Washington. |
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02-05-22 | Northwestern State v. McNeese State -4 | Top | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
10* McNeese (5:00 ET): Gonna try again with McNeese (State), who let me down Thursday when they lost 83-78 to SE Louisiana. That was the Cowboys’ third straight loss, all of them coming at home, leaving them with a 8-15 SU record and way off the pace in the Southland. But this afternoon they’ll face a Northwestern State team that is due for a “nosedive” after winning its last three games, including a shocking performance Thursday where they shot 61.1% on the road. Lay the points in this one. There’s usually a lot of points when Northwestern State takes the floor. The Demons are off B2B 90+ point efforts, but what was so shocking about the last one wasn’t just the ridiculous shooting, it’s that they were previously 1-14 SU away from home. Therefore, it’s very difficult for me to envision them winning two road games in a three-day span. Defensively, the Demons are a disaster as they give up 80.7 PPG for the year and 85.9 when playing away from home. Thursday was actually their first “true” road win of the year; previously their only SU win away from home was a neutral site game vs. Incarnate Word. McNeese has allowed 80+ points in each of the L3 games, but I expect them to score a lot tonight against this soft Northwestern State defense that is 347th nationally (out of 358 teams) in efficiency. Northwestern State made a season-high 17 three-pointers in their last game, so look for regression there, especially with McNeese likely to defend the arc better than they did vs. SE Louisiana. With the next four games all on the road, this is a MUST win for McNeese. 10* McNeese |
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02-05-22 | Michigan +9.5 v. Purdue | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
8* Michigan (2:30 ET): The Wolverines, who were once ranked as high as #4 in the country, are in dire need of a big win to bolster their resume. Juwan Howard’s team is currently 11-8 SU and 7th in the Big 10. The Big 10 is a loaded conference mind you, and I still consider the Maize and Blue among the top 30 in the country. Beating Purdue, the current #4 ranked team in the country, is precisely the win that Michigan needs right now. Not sure they can pull off the outright upset Saturday, but I’m definitely taking the points. Purdue has won four in a row and will be facing Illinois (probably the Big 10’s second best team) on Tuesday. So they may not be taking their opponents all that seriously. If there is a “hole” in the Boilermakers’ resume, it is the fact they rank 91st in the country in defensive efficiency. Among teams in the KenPom Top 25, that’s easily the worst, with the exception of Iowa, who you’ll note is not in the “actual” Top 25 (AP/Coaches). I’m also not convinced the Boilermakers can continue their recent hot shooting. They made 55.6% against Minnesota and 61.2% at Iowa. Michigan has a top 20 offense in terms of efficiency and has some proverbial “momentum” after scoring the last six points of the game to defeat Nebraska 85-79 on Tuesday. That was a game where the Wolverines were down seven points at halftime and their season was very much “on the brink.” Note they have won in West Lafayette each of the last two seasons and are 8-0-1 ATS the L9 meetings overall. Purdue has not beaten Michigan since 2018! This is just the fourth time this season that Michigan has been a dog. 8* Michigan |
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02-05-22 | Louisville +7.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 69-92 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
8* Louisville (2:00 ET): It’s obviously been a very frustrating season for Louisville, who has already made a coaching change (fired Chris Mack) and continues to come up short in heart-breaking fashion. The last two games have seen the Cardinals go 0-2 ATS, despite being tied with Duke with seven minutes left in regulation and going to overtime against North Carolina. That leaves them an awful 1-10-1 ATS their L12 games, but the improved effort we’ve seen (since the coaching change) should continue here. Syracuse has put together a couple of high-scoring wins over the last week, beating Wake Forest and NC State. But it is highly unlikely that the Orange can continue shooting as well as they did in those two victories. They made 57.1% from the field against Wake Forest, then topped that with 59.3% against NC State. In the two games prior, the Orange averaged just 55 points in losses to Duke and Pitt. Now those losses were both on the road, but even at the Carrier Dome, the ‘Cuse won’t be able to match the three-point shooting of the last two games. Jim Boeheim’s team has made 21 of its last 38 3PA, which is pretty insane and simply not sustainable. Factoring in the likely offensive regression, and the fact the Orange simply aren’t that good defensively, this is a great spot to take the points. Syracuse ranks 237th in defensive efficiency (per KenPom), which is just horrible, and they give up 75.5 PPG. Look for the shots to start falling for L’ville, who has three players that shoot 36% or better from three-point range. 8* Louisville |
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02-05-22 | Tulsa +3.5 v. Temple | Top | 58-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
8* Tulsa (2:00 ET): It’s been a tough season for Frank Haith and Tulsa, who are just 7-13 SU overall and 1-8 in conference play, leaving them last in the American. But the Golden Hurricane have been really unlucky, losing eight of their nine games that were decided by five points or less and opponents seemingly can’t miss from three-point range against them (37.7%!) But I like them here, getting points in a revenge spot, against a Temple team that’s had a lot of luck go its way. Time for a reversal of fortune. Temple has won five of six coming into Saturday, however four of those wins were by five points or less. The largest margin of victory during this run came last time out when the Owls beat East Carolina 71-63. This is a rare time that the Owls are favored; the last time they were chalk was against ECU on Jan 8 and they failed to cover the four point spread (won by three). Tulsa went off as a 3.5-point favorite in the first meeting, a game where Temple got a career-high 24 points from Nick Jourdain. My feeling is that this is a rare opportunity to fade a lucky team laying points. Since losing to Temple, Tulsa has lost by two to Houston (a very good team) and by two to Memphis (blew a 15-point lead). The Golden Hurricane are certainly better than their record and should shoot better here than they did at. Wichita State on Tuesday. There, they scored a season-low 18 points in the second half. They made only 6 of 23 from behind the arc in the first meeting with Temple, yet led by five in the second half. This team is due! Take the points. 8* Tulsa |
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02-04-22 | Thunder +8.5 v. Blazers | Top | 96-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma City (10:10 ET): The Thunder obviously aren’t a very good team, but they are pesky. An underdog in all but two games this season, they have a 32-17 ATS record. That’s the top cover rate in the league. Despite not having leading scorer Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, the team has won its last two games - upsetting Portland and Dallas. It’s another matchup with Portland tonight, and don’t fall for the revenge angle. The Blazers are also not a very good team and are missing their top scorer (Damian Lillard). It was a 98-81 OKC victory when these teams met Monday. Portland was playing the second night of a back to back after losing 130-118 in Chicago Sunday afternoon. They scored just 50 points over the final three quarters in the loss to the Thunder. Offense was again an issue on Wednesday (another time I played against them) when they fell 99-94 to the LeBron-less Lakers. Once again, in three of the four quarters, the Blazers were held to 22 points or less. This isn’t a good defensive team either; they rank bottom five in the league in points allowed. The loss to the Lakers also dropped Portland to 2-8 ATS this season following a game where they allowed fewer than 100 points. They’re back in that same situation again here. This spread is just too high for a team that’s being outscored by four points per game this season. Oklahoma City is 16-9 ATS on the road and 9-4 ATS when coming off a SU win as a dog. Luguentz Dort has averaged 25 points over the L3 games, filling in nicely for Alexander. 8* Oklahoma City |
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02-03-22 | Kings +13.5 v. Warriors | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (10:10 ET): Though it’s the second game of a back to back and they’re facing the Warriors, I’m taking the Kings plus the points here. Last night, they defeated Brooklyn, at home, by a score of 112-101. While the Nets didn’t have Kevin Durant, both Kyrie Irving and James Harden suited up for them. The Kings didn’t have their leading scorer (De’Aaron Fox) or Marvin Bagley III in the lineup. So I’d say that was a pretty impressive win for them! Golden State was very lucky to beat San Antonio on Tuesday. They sat virtually half the roster and were down 17 in the third quarter. Somehow, they pulled off an improbable rally to win 124-120. It was the seventh straight win for the Warriors, however note that four of those have been by four points or fewer. Though Curry, Thompson and Wiggins are all expected to play tonight, several other contributors (including Draymond Green) remain out. Knowing they have the next three days off, the Dubs may not give this one their full attention. Sacramento is desperate to make the playoffs this year, even if it’s simply a play-in game. They have the longest active postseason drought in the league. Before beating the Nets last night, the Kings had lost seven in a row and 12 of 14. They can’t afford another bad performance. Do I think they win this game outright? Probably not. But I do see them keeping it close as the Warriors are 1-4 ATS coming off a win where they were the underdog. 10* Sacramento |
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02-03-22 | Southeastern Louisiana v. McNeese State -1 | Top | 83-78 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
10* McNeese (8:30 ET): So McNeese is in dire need of a win here after two straight losses, both here at home. The Cowboys had the halftime advantage Saturday against New Orleans, the team that leads the Southland Conference. But they couldn’t hold on, surrendering 46 points in the second half. That was a tough loss as McNeese allowed UNO to hit three three-pointers the entire game. But the Privateers were 25 of 28 from the free throw line. I can’t see McNeese dropping a third straight game at home. Especially not with the revenge angle in play here. The Cowboys lost to SE Louisiana 83-78, back on January 7th. That was a unique situation as both teams were in the midst of playing three days in a row and it was a neutral site game. SE Louisiana shot 50% overall and 13 of 23 from three-point range, a performance I can’t see them duplicating tonight as the Lions are just 2-8 SU in “true” road games. Then there is the matter that they are allowing nearly 80 PPG away from home this season. SE Louisiana enters this rematch off a 78-68 home win over Incarnate Word. That’s the worst team in the conference. They were down a point at halftime and needed a career-day (29 points) from Keon Clergeot to pull out the victory. Also, playing at home, the Lions enjoyed a massive edge in free throw attempts (+24). I really like how the situation sets up here for McNeese, who should be extremely motivated tonight. 10* McNeese |
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02-03-22 | Bulls v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 120-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:40 ET): The Raptors have some scores to settle tonight. They’ve lost to the Bulls twice this season, 111-108 (here at home) back in October and 111-105 last week in Chicago. But since that second loss to the Bulls, Toronto has rattled off three straight impressive victories, including 110-106 over Miami on Tuesday. Yes, the Raptors certainly appeared to take advantage of the fact Miami was playing for a fourth time in five nights. But Gary Trent Jr has been a “man on a mission,” scoring 30+ points in each of the last five games (had 33 vs. the Heat). Toronto is now eighth in the Eastern Conference. Like the six teams ahead of them, they are chasing the Bulls, who lead the conference with a 32-18 overall record. But I don’t see Chicago holding onto that top spot for much longer. They are actually sixth in the East in point differential. The Bulls have shot incredibly well each of the L4 games (54.8%, 52.3%, 55.6% and 51.1%). But I’m not sure they can count on that hot shooting to continue. The Raptors are pretty solid defensively, at least at home where they allow just 104.5 PPG. The last time these teams met, Toronto was in the second night of a back to back. This time, they have rest and are at home. The Bulls have given up more points than they’ve allowed on the road this year and the last time they played on the road, they gave up 130 to the Spurs. Going back to the start of December, they have just ONE road win by more than four points. The Raptors are 8-2 ATS their L10 games as a home favorite. 8* Toronto |
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02-02-22 | Blazers v. Lakers -3 | Top | 94-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (10:40 ET): Just as Anthony Davis returned, the Lakers lost LeBron James. It’s been “that kind of season” in Tinseltown as the Lakers are three games below .500 and in ninth place in the Western Conference. They’d gotten back to the Mendoza line (.500) a week ago when they beat Brooklyn 106-96. But after that it’s been three straight losses where every opponent has shot better than 50%. The Hawks shot 58.3% against LA in a game that ended up being 129-121 on Sunday. But tonight the Lakers are back at home and I think this one should go well. The team they are facing, Portland, is a pretty horrid 7-17 SU on the road and just got beat in OKC, 98-81 as a four-point favorite. The Blazers are 2-7 straight up and 1-8 against the spread when coming off an outright loss as a favorite this season. They too are dealing with injuries. Damian Lillard is out as are Cody Zeller and Larry Nance Jr. The Lakers have covered each of the last four times they’ve been off an ATS loss. They did not cover against the Hawks, just missing out as 7.5-point dogs. I think Davis should have his way here against a Portland team that gives up 113.7 PPG on the road. Defensively, the Lakers should start to improve as well. It can’t get any worse than it did vs. Atlanta. The Blazers scored just 50 points over the final three quarters vs. the Thunder, who were playing without their leading scorer. Lay the points. 8* LA Lakers |
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02-02-22 | Wizards +10.5 v. 76ers | Top | 106-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:10 ET): The Wizards have been in a real “rut” of late, losing six in a row. Things have been even more disastrous at the betting window with them not only failing to cover in each of those six straight losses, but also 12 of the last 13 games overall. Perhaps we all should have seen this downfall coming; the Wizards had been winning a lot of close games early on. They actually have the third worst point differential in the Eastern Conference, ahead of only lowly Orlando and Detroit. But tonight the Wiz are finally getting plenty of “help” (points) from the oddsmakers and I think it’s a good time to take them. Yes, they are currently without leading scorer Bradley Beal. But for 3+ quarters, they hung with the Bucks last night, even taking the lead with just under nine minutes to go. It was a one-point game with only five minutes left, but the Wizards scored only four points after that. It was a pretty brutal ATS loss. Of course, nothing like the previous Tuesday when they blew a 35-point lead and lost to the Clippers. I just think it’s time for Washington to punch a winning ticket. Philadelphia may be on a five-game win streak, but only one of those wins have been by greater than 10 points and the last two have been by a combined five points. The Wizards last win came against the Sixers, by 19 points. Philly is coming off a 122-119 win over Memphis, and Joel Embiid did not play, but they are 2-7 ATS this season off a SU win as a dog. The last time in that situation was when they faced Washington! Take the points here. 10* Washington |
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02-02-22 | Longwood v. North Carolina-Asheville +3 | Top | 56-48 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
8* UNC Asheville (6:30 ET): The Big South currently belongs to Longwood, who are 7-0 SU in conference play. The Lancers just beat the other division leader, Winthrop, on Saturday by a score of 92-88. They got a career-high 29 points from leading scorer Justin Hill, but still only covered the spread by half a point. There aren’t too many teams left with unbeaten conference records, in all of College Basketball, and this is one I expect to lose sooner rather than later. Longwood’s unbeaten run likely ends here. UNC Asheville looks to be the team to knock Longwood off its perch. The Bulldogs are coming off a one-point win over Presbyterian on Saturday, which got them back to .500 (4-4 SU) in conference play. It’s been a series of close calls for UNC Asheville, whose last six games have all been decided by six points or less. They are just 2-4 SU in those games. But getting the Big South’s top team, at home, should lead to some massive motivation, especially with the Bulldogs having lost three straight at home - all as favorites. With the exception of a blowout win over Hampton, all of Longwood’s conference wins have been close. They allowed 61 points in the second half against Winthrop, a scary sign. Also, the Lancers have a losing road record this year. Scoring drops to 71.7 PPG (on 42.7% shooting) away from home. UNC Asheville is putting up 81.9 PPG at home and we should be getting their best effort here. Defensively, they are holding teams below 40% shooting at home this year. Take the points as the Bulldogs are already 6-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. 8* UNC Asheville |
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02-02-22 | Chicago State v. Abilene Christian -17.5 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
10* Abilene Christian (6:00 ET): Abilene Christian is “middle of the pack” in the WAC this year with a 5-5 conference record. But while they have won each of their last three games straight up, the Wildcats continue to struggle at the betting window as they are just 1-7 ATS their last eight games. Prior to the current three-game win streak, the team had dropped five a row. But the wins have come against the bottom three teams in the WAC and now they face Chicago State, who also is very bad. It seems like a big number, but I’m laying it. While Chicago State may be ahead of two teams (UTRGV and Lamar) in the WAC standings and tied with Cal Baptist, I've got them rated as the worst team in the conference. The Cougars did beat Cal Baptist by two at home and then upset Lamar on the road a couple weeks ago. But that’s it for wins in conference play. The fact they were 7.5-point underdogs to Lamar should tell you what the oddsmakers think of them. Each of the Cougars’ last two games were 14-point losses and they surrendered 101 points to Utah Valley State. Abilene Christian has been putting up some nice point totals of late. They’ve averaged 83 PPG during the win streak and 80.9 PPG at home for the season. They only give up 59.5 PPG at home. Now some of that is skewed due to facing non-DI teams, but Chicago State is close to the bottom of the barrel when it comes to D-I. The Wildcats have been favored in most of their WAC games and when you analyze the numbers, all signs point to a big blowout here. 10* Abilene Christian |
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02-01-22 | Providence v. St. John's -3 | Top | 86-82 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
10* St. John’s (9:00 ET): This line speaks volumes. Providence is the #15 ranked team in the country right now, but getting points from an 11-8 St. John’s team that has a losing record in Big East play. But, as has been well-documented in the past, the Friars are vastly overrated. Yes, they have an 18-2 SU record. But KenPom calls them the luckiest team in America this season (7-0 SU in games decided by five points or less) and my own power ratings don’t even consider them a top 45 team in the country! St. John’s has already faced Providence once this year. It was when Providence was on the heels of an 88-56 loss to Marquette. The Johnnies started strong, taking a three-point lead into the break. But it was not to be as Providence rallied in the 2H for an 83-73 win and cover. A big difference in that game was that St. John’s was just 8 of 17 from the free throw line while Providence was 26 of 30. Don’t expect that discrepancy to repeat itself now that the Johnnies are the home team. Providence’s last two wins have been by a total of five points, over Xavier and Marquette, the latter being a big revenge spot for them. It was a buzzer-beater that lifted them over Xavier and against Marquette they rallied from a six-point halftime deficit. Now it’s St. John’s that’s playing with revenge and the Red Storm are a much different team at home where they’ve gone 10-2 SU this season and averaged 83.1 PPG. Expect a much better effort at the offensive end here, than what we saw Saturday at Villanova where the Red Storm went just 4 of 21 from three-point range. Leading scorer Julian Champagne is the key and will play better here, compared to the first meeting with Providence when he finished with only 11 points on 5 of 19 shooting. 10* St. John’s |
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02-01-22 | Kansas -4.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 70-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
8* Kansas (7:00 ET): I have not been a believer in Iowa State this season. The Cyclones started the year a perfect 12-0, which was a remarkable turnaround from a 2020-21 season that saw them finish 2-22 SU. But after opening the year with 12 straight wins, ISU has since dropped five of their last nine games. Big 12 play continues to be a “bugaboo.” They’ve lost 23 of their last 26 conference games, even though two of the three wins have come in the last two games. It’s time to fade them on Tuesday. Kansas is the benchmark in the Big 12. But stepping outside of conference play resulted in the Jayhawks getting “smacked in the mouth” Saturday as they were beaten soundly, 80-62 by Kentucky, at Allen Fieldhouse. KU had been “living dangerously” prior to that with four of their last five wins coming by three points or less. One of those close calls was against Iowa State, 62-61. Interestingly, the Jayhawks were 13-point favorites for that game. I know this one is in Ames, but it looks like we’re getting some decent value on the chalk. Kentucky is simply a much better team than Iowa State, so I’m not overly concerned about what happened on Saturday. Yes, the Jayhawks have just one win by more than three points going back to January 4th. But I still consider them a Top 10 team in the country. Iowa State is not even in my Top 25, or even Top 40, so consider them overrated by the pollsters. One of the Cyclones’ Big 12 wins was in OT and another by just four over Texas Tech. They simply aren’t in Kansas’ class. 8* Kansas |
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02-01-22 | Creighton v. Connecticut -9.5 | Top | 59-55 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
8* Connecticut (6:30 ET): This looks to be a good spot to lay the points with UConn, who is on a five-game win streak and up to #17 in the latest polls. This “resurgence” by the Huskies really isn’t all that surprising; I’ve had them in the Top 20 of my own power rankings for a while now, plus it’s St. John’s, Georgetown, Butler (twice) and DePaul that they’ve beaten during this win streak. Creighton isn’t very good either though and this should be yet another UConn blowout. It’s a triple revenge spot for UConn here as they lost three times to the Bluejays last season, the final meeting coming in the Big East Tournament. But they’re catching “the birds” wounded here as Creighton just blew a 17-point halftime lead and lost to Xavier over the weekend. The Bluejays ended up losing by 10, so that was a 27-point swing in the second half - at home. Not good. The previous game saw them lose by 17 at Butler, also a less than inspiring result. Over its L3 games, Creighton has averaged just under 60 PPG. That’s not good when facing a UConn team that is putting up 83.9 PPG at home this season. The Huskies have been a dominant home team, outscoring their visitors by an average of 24.5 PPG this season. My own power rankings say they should be a much larger favorite here and an early line move seems to concur with that assessment. Connecticut is on a 19-8 ATS run when off a conference win and a Creighton team that shoots just 30% from three-point range isn’t going to be able to keep up here. 8* Connecticut |
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01-31-22 | Northern Colorado v. Portland State +4 | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
8* Portland State (10:30 ET): Portland State, a five-win team out of the Big Sky, is probably NOT an outfit you’ve had your eye on lately. But I think the Vikings have been somewhat undervalued. They went 2-0 ATS last week, covering the spread in a three-point loss to Southern Utah and then going to Northern Arizona and winning 97-76 as a two-point dog. That win snapped a five-game losing streak and was probably PSU’s most impressive performance to date. Let it also be known that three of the four games the Vikings had lost before that were by five points or less. It’s been more than two months since Portland State last won a home game, which is truly incredible when you think about it. Back in early November, at the start of the year, they picked up a pair of wins over non-board teams. Since then, they’ve lost seven in a row at the Peter W. Stott Center. I think they’ve got a GREAT chance at breaking that streak here tonight. The Vikings are hosting a Northern Colorado team that’s been a bit more “lucky” than “good” this season and is coming off an 86-75 loss to Weber State. While Northern Colorado last played on Thursday and Portland State’s win over Northern Arizona was Saturday, I’m still taking the points here as the visitors are giving up 78.8 PPG away from home this year, which is just not good when laying points. I was a little surprised to see that the Bears have been road favorites four times previous to this, but they lost one of the four outright and two of the three SU wins were by a combined seven points. Take the points. 8* Portland State |
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01-31-22 | New Mexico v. San Diego State -14 | Top | 47-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
10* San Diego State (10:00 ET): The last time I went with San Diego State, things turned out rather well. Not only did the Aztecs (-2) hand Colorado State its first defeat of the season, they did so in emphatic fashion, winning 79-49 here at home. Since that time, however, the Aztecs have stumbled. They turned in a woeful 37-point performance against Boise State (but still only lost by five). Then, last week, they went out to Utah State and lost 71-57 as a 1-point favorite. The Aztecs are now fourth in the Mountain West and really lagging behind the top three teams (Boise, Wyoming, Colorado State). But it should be an easy win Monday as SDSU hosts New Mexico. Other than the 28% shooting night against Boise, the Aztecs have not lost at home all season. They are a perfect 4-0 straight up this year following a game where they were held to 60 points or less. Defensively, SDSU remains one of the top teams in the country (4th in defensive efficiency per KenPom). As long as they can get the shots to fall tonight, it will be a blowout. The fact that New Mexico gives up 84.6 PPG away from home is a positive sign. The Lobos were 86-70 winners Friday night, but that was at home against San Jose State, the last place team in the conference. Prior to that win, the Lobos had lost seven in a row. San Diego State has had more time to prepare for this game as they last played on Wednesday. The last time the Aztecs were at home, they won by 25 over UNLV. Look for this to be a rout. 10* San Diego State |
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01-31-22 | Warriors -10.5 v. Rockets | Top | 122-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10* Golden State (8:10 ET): The Warriors seem to have hit their stride again, winning their last five games. Those five victories have come by an average of 11 PPG, which is basically what the oddsmakers are calling for tonight. While that average margin of victory is somewhat skewed because of a 130-92 blowout of Dallas last week, the Dubs should have little difficulty blowing out a downtrodden Houston team that is playing without starting PG Kevin Porter Jr. The Rockets have lost 10 in a row at home, the last two coming by a combined 45 points. Golden State was able to down Brooklyn 110-106 Saturday night in a marquee matchup. Now the Nets did not have either Kevin Durant or James Harden, which made the task a lot easier for the Warriors. But the Warriors’ cold shooting and having only 10 players suit up kept that game close. I really think we’re due for a “big” Steph Curry game as he’s failed to hit his season average of 25.7 PPG in four of the last five games. He’s shooting 36.9% in January, which is odd. The Warriors can always seem to rely on their defense, which leads the league in scoring, giving up only 102.0 PPG. The Rockets are at the opposite end of the spectrum, giving up a league-high 116.8 PPG. This happens to be a matchup of my #1 ranked vs. #29 ranked team in the power ratings. So it’s about as big of a mismatch as you can have. I know that it ended up being just a two-point game when these teams met ten days ago in San Francisco. But Curry didn’t make a single shot until 48 seconds were left in the first half and Klay Thompson sat that game out. Lay the points tonight. 10* Golden State |
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01-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (6:30 ET): So the 49ers swept the regular season series and have now beaten the Rams six straight times (while going 5-1 ATS). I actually had the Niners in both regular season matchups. The first time they were 3.5 point underdogs at home on MNF. That was the game that really turned around their season. San Fran was just 3-5 SU at that time and hadn’t won a home game in more than a year. They ended up prevailing rather easily, 31-10. The second meeting had far more importance as this time the Niners needed to win to make the playoffs. That’s why I took them plus the points and it ended up being a 27-24 outright win in overtime. While the Niners were deserved winners here in LA back in Week 18 (ended up +184 in total yards), allow me to remind you that the Rams led 17-0 at halftime. It is the only time during his head coaching tenure that Sean McVay lost a game when leading at the break (45-0). The 49ers again rallied from a halftime deficit in the Divisional Round, ousting the top seeded Packers on a last second field goal, 13-10. But remember that wouldn’t have been possible without returning a blocked punt for a TD in the 4Q. I’m aware that the Niners have been real “road warriors” in recent years, but their luck is about to run out here. Let’s start with the fact that no team has won four straight games, all on the road, without a bye since 1961. Teams in the playoffs that are playing their fourth consecutive road game are 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS. I think the 49ers were a little lucky to prevail against both Dallas (who had bad clock management) and Green Bay (gained only 212 total yards). The Rams have been far more impressive in their two playoff wins, routing Arizona 34-11 and taking a 27-3 lead at Tampa Bay. I find it very hard to believe that the Rams would lose a seventh straight time to the Niners. They didn’t have anything to really play for the last time. Jimmy G remains a liability for a team that easily could have lost all of its last three games. Lay the points. 10* LA Rams |
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01-30-22 | Blazers +6.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-130 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
10* Portland (3:40 ET): I faded Chicago on Friday night and got a win from San Antonio. The Bulls now are set to face a Western Conference team with a slightly better record than the Spurs and that’s Portland, who already beat them once this season, 112-107 back in November. Despite not having top scorer Damian Lillard, the Blazers are fighting their way back up the Western Conference pecking order. They’ve won five of seven on the road and I don’t see them getting blown out here. Take the points. As I said in Friday’s analysis, Chicago’s point differential is only seventh best among Eastern Conference teams. So do not be surprised if they fall down a few spots in the standings. Injuries and COVID have been a factor for them this month. While the Bulls’ record at home remains solid, they have struggled defensively as they just allowed 131 points in the loss to the Spurs. Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso remain out, so they are still short-handed. The team is 0-2 SU this season after allowing 130+ pts last game. The Blazers are getting contributions from a wide variety of players right now. Three players scored 25 or more points in Friday’s 125-110 win at Houston. It was the team’s third straight win away from home. Obviously, Houston isn’t very good, but the Blazers have also won at Boston and Toronto recently. They’ve covered the previous six trips to the Windy City and right now a case could be made that they are playing better basketball than the Bulls. Since 1/9, Portland is 7-4. Chicago is 4-8. 10* Portland |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
8* Kansas City (3:00 ET): These teams met in the regular season and it quickly turned into a shootout with the Bengals eventually coming out on top, 34-31 as 3.5-point underdogs. But that game took place in Cincinnati. I don’t see these young upstarts beating KC twice in the same season. There’s only been one instance of Chiefs QB Mahomes losing twice to the same team in the same season. The loss to the Bengals is the only time KC has gone down since early November and they’ve put up 42 points in each playoff win. The Bengals have done well as underdogs this season, but KC is just the 11th team in the Super Bowl era to be favored in each of its first 19 games. The last four have all gone on to the Super Bowl. This will be the 13th consecutive time the Chiefs have been favored to win in the playoffs, the last 10 all coming with Mahomes as QB, a stretch that has seen the team go 7-3 ATS. They are 4-1 ATS when favored by at least four points, as they are here. Cincy just has the feeling of a “public dog” in this spot. They deserve kudos for making it thus far, but also beat a subpar Raiders team in the Wild Card Round, then arguably the weakest #1 seed we’ve ever seen (Tennessee) last weekend. Kansas City beat a subpar Pittsburgh team in Wild Card Weekend, but then ousted the #1 team in my power rankings (Buffalo) last week. The Chiefs’ offense has averaged 7.5 yards per play in the two playoff wins! The Bengals have actually been outgained on a per play basis in both of their playoff wins. Lay the points. 8* Kansas City |
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01-29-22 | Wizards +5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 95-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
8* Washington (8:10 ET): The Wizards have had three full days to get over the meltdown against the Clippers, which saw them blow a 35-point lead and lose 116-115. It’s tough times in the Nation’s Capital right now as the Wiz have lost four in a row and are on the precipice of falling out of the top ten in the Eastern Conference. Three of those four losses have been by four points or less, two by a single point each. Now some would call that “comeuppance” after their rash of close victories to start the season. Things are even more dire at the betting window where Washington is just 1-10 its last 11 games. However, they have gone off as the favorite in all but three of those 11 contests. Their lone cover in this stretch came as an underdog, when they beat Philadelphia 117-98. Rested, they are getting points here against a Memphis team that has been hot, but also is playing without rest. The Grizzlies won again last night, beating Utah 119-119. It was their second straight win after a five-game stretch where they went just 2-3 straight up. There haven’t been many losses for Memphis the last two months as they are 25-7 SU L32 games, including 11-3 SU and ATS this month. But this is a tough spot against a motivated team. Look for the visitors to at least keep within the number, or possibly take the game outright. Take the points. 8* Washington |
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01-29-22 | Illinois -3 v. Northwestern | Top | 59-56 | Push | 0 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
10* Illinois (4:30 ET): The Fighting Illini survived a scare on Tuesday, holding off #10 Michigan State for a 56-55 win. It was a game they led by double digits at the half, despite being without two of their top players. Kofi Cockburn could be back today while Andre Curbelo (COVID) is less likely to return. Both players are officially listed as questionable as of this writing. What I do know is that the Illini, in order to preserve their Top 25 ranking, can not afford a slip up here against Northwestern. I’ve got Illinois rated as the second best team in the Big 10 this year, only behind Purdue. The Illini are currently tied with Wisconsin for first place with a 7-2 SU conference record. They haven’t covered any of the last three games, but one of those was an OT loss to Purdue. This is a short number we’re dealing with here, and while I usually stay away from road favorites, the fact is Northwestern (Illinois’ opponent) is coming off a slew of disappointing setback and may have little left “in the tank” on Saturday. Six of N’western’s seven Big 10 losses have come by eight points or fewer, including 72-70 at Michigan on Wednesday. That was a game that saw the Wildcats only lead briefly after a late run in the second half. As many close calls as they’ve had, N’western is just 2-6 ATS vs. Big 10 teams thus far. They have struggled defensively, giving up an average of 78.0 points the L5 games. Even a possibly undermanned Illinois team can come into Evanston and win. They are 17-5 ATS L22 trips here. 10* Illinois |
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01-29-22 | Baylor v. Alabama +4 | Top | 78-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
8* Alabama (4:00 ET): This is a spot I couldn’t wait to jump on. Most will see Baylor, the defending National Champion, laying a short number on the road and want to lay the points. But give me Alabama, an underrated team that’s off a bad loss. The Crimson Tide still rank in the Top 20 of my power ratings, even after losing to Georgia (as a 15.5-point favorite) on Tuesday. They’ve beaten both Houston and Gonzaga this year and only lost by four to Auburn. I love the Tide getting points in Tuscaloosa. Bama is on a six-game ATS losing streak coming into this game, after the bad loss to UGA earlier this week. That’s not the first time a loss to the Bulldogs has angered the Alabama fan base this month. But this was the basketball team’s worst defeat of the season. It came about as a result of going just 9 of 34 from three-point range and a big disparity at the free throw line (-11 in makes). But now the Tide is back home, where they are 9-1 SU this year, the only loss coming against #1 Auburn. The same night ‘Bama got upset, Baylor dominated Kansas State for a 74-49 home win. But now they step into unfamiliar territory as this is part of the Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge and the Bears should expect a hostile environment. The Bears are certainly capable of winning on the road (they are 8-0 SU outside of Waco this season), but remember they did lose at home to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. I think Alabama is pretty comparable to Texas Tech. The respect shown here to the home team is not a surprise. They were favorites at home vs. Auburn! 8* Alabama |
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01-29-22 | Winthrop +3 v. Longwood | Top | 88-92 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
8* Winthrop (3:00 ET): The number of teams with an unbeaten conference record is rapidly dwindling across College Basketball. But we’ve got one of the few remaining here with Longwood out of the Big South. The Lancers have won all six league games so far. But other than a 73-49 thrashing of last place Hampton earlier this week, all of the wins have come by single digits. This afternoon, Longwood gets its stiffest Big South test to date with a visit from the other division leader, Winthrop. Now Winthrop has been a disaster for bettors so far this season. The Eagles are 3-13 ATS overall and haven’t covered a spread since December 7th! But they have also been favored in almost every game during this ATS slide. The lone exception was a blowout loss at Mississippi State. In fact, the last time Winthrop covered a game, came as a home underdog to Furman (they won that game outright). It is rather incredible to see a team with an 0-11-1 ATS record as favorites, but we don’t need to worry about laying points here. This is the third game in six days for both teams. Winthrop lost at High Point on Monday, but then bounced back with a four-point win at USC Upstate in overtime. Longwood had the win at Hampton on Monday, then beat North Carolina A&T by eight on Wednesday, at home. Winthrop has certainly had Longwood’s number the last couple years, winning all five meetings, four of those by double digits. Longwood trailed at the half on Wednesday. Take the points here. 8* Winthrop |
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01-28-22 | Bulls v. Spurs +2.5 | Top | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (8:40 ET): The Spurs remain one of the more “curious cases” in the league as they have the point differential of a team you’d expect to be right around .500, but instead they are 13 games below. At home, they’ve actually outscored their opponents this season, but somehow have a 9-16 SU record here. Coming off another tough home loss, 118-110 to red-hot Memphis, I’m banking on a strong effort from San Antonio and a much “overdue” win. Comparing the Spurs and Bulls, in certain metrics, is certainly interesting. The Spurs have the eighth best point differential in the Western Conference, despite their .367 win percentage. They should be, at least, in position for one of the play-in spots. As for the Bulls, they’ve spent time atop the Eastern Conference standings and currently sit second with a 30-17 SU record. But they only have the seventh best point differential in the East. It’s been a great start to the season in the Windy City, but I do see them as likely to drop down a few spots. Beating Oklahoma City and Toronto earlier in the week marked the first time that Chicago has won B2B games since January 7th. Injuries and COVID-19 have certainly been a factor with this team, but let’s also note that their two road wins this month both came by a single point. Going back to the start of December, the Bulls have just one road win by more than four points. San Antonio is getting great production of late from PG Murray, who already has 10 triple-doubles this season. Chicago will NOT shoot 39 of 58 again, from two-point range, like they did vs. Toronto. 8* San Antonio |
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01-28-22 | Akron +8.5 v. Toledo | Top | 76-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* Akron (7:00 ET): Toledo is on quite the run currently. They’ve won and covered seven straight, putting them squarely in first place in the MAC. The Rockets’ lone conference defeat this year came by just three points at Kent State back on New Year’s Day. This run hasn’t seen too many close calls, although there have been a couple upsets, like winning at Ohio last Friday. On Tuesday, they won here at home over Buffalo, 86-75. Note, however, that was a close game until the stretch run. I think now is the right time to take the points against Toledo as they are facing a pretty strong Akron team. Akron is 6-2 SU in MAC games as they too lost in Kent, but were also beaten at home by Ohio. The Zips have won four in a row coming into tonight, three of those by four points or less. So it’s not been as dominant of a win streak as Toledo’s, but the Zips have allowed an average of just 55.3 points the last three games. Strong defensive numbers are a big reason why this team is 5-1 ATS as an underdog this year. They are 13-5 ATS L18 times getting points. Toledo is the better offensive team here, but look for them to get stymied by Akron’s slow pace of play. The Zips play at the 15th slowest pace in the country, so by limiting possessions, they can limit the potential damage Toledo can do at the offensive end. It boils down to the visitors making shots and I think they can. Three times in conference play, Akron has scored at least 84 points. Toledo is allowing 72.8 points over its L5 games. 10* Akron |
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01-27-22 | Northeastern +4.5 v. NC-Wilmington | Top | 62-67 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
8* Northeastern (7:00 ET): These teams just met on Monday. UNC Wilmington won 74-68 as a 2.5-point underdog. What’s remarkable about that spread is UNC Wilmington entered the game with a perfect conference record. Northeastern is still winless in the CAA this season! It was also UNC Wilmington’s eighth consecutive victory against the spread and ninth win in a row overall (straight up). But all but ONE of those lined victories came as an underdog. Tonight the Seahawks are favored for just the second time since December 1st! Pulling off four consecutive upsets, not to mention seven in your last eight games, is a remarkable achievement and that is what UNC Wilmington has done. Clearly, they have made the oddsmakers look a little foolish. But all good things must end, and now as a favorite, they are ready to be faded. Northeastern actually shot much better in the game Monday night (46.3% to 40.0%). The key was that UNCW made eight threes to N’eastern’s four and they were also +8 in FT makes. N’eastern actually led at the break Monday. It is telling that despite being 0-8 SU in conference play that the Huskies are only a slight dog to the first place team, on the road. UNC Wilmington’s average margin of victory in conference play is less than five points per game. They’ve yet to win by double digits and three of the wins have come by four points or less. Four of Northeastern’s conference losses have been by six points or less. This is simply a case of regression/progression to the mean. 8* Northeastern |
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01-27-22 | Drexel v. James Madison -3.5 | Top | 88-82 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
10* James Madison (7:00 ET): JMU is off one of the worst “beats” in recent memory as they, as a three-point favorite, fell “victim” to a last second three. The Dukes still won the game 95-94, but if you bet them (like I did), that was some “tough luck.” That one-point win (over College of Charleston) took place Saturday night. It was the fourth straight ATS loss for JMU, although they have won two of the games straight up. Three have been decided by four points or less. The oddsmakers are expecting another close tonight vs. Drexel, but I do think the Dukes break through and cover the spread in this one. They have been a strong home team all year, winning 8 of 10 games here and averaging 82.1 PPG. Each of the last two games have seen a three-pointer hit at the buzzer. The last one, as I already mentioned, cost them a cover. The previous one was even more heartbreaking as they lost 71-70 to UNC Wilmington. While it is a little concerning how JMU has given up 90+ points in three of its last four games, don’t look for Drexel to do anywhere close to that kind of damage at the offensive end tonight. The Dragons are off a horrible loss, as 15-point favorites, to the worst team in the league (that being William & Mary). That came at home. JMU, while shooting over 50% themselves at home this season, is limiting the opposition to 40.3% here. This is the Dukes’ fourth straight game at home and they’ve only been an underdog one time since conference play began. Drexel has only been favored once. So I see the home side covering the short number, this time. 10* James Madison |
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01-26-22 | Suns v. Jazz +3.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
8* Utah (10:10 ET): I understand who the hotter team is here. Phoenix, who leads the NBA with a 37-9 SU record, has won its last seven games and 10 of the last 11. Meanwhile, Utah has been slumping over its last 10 games, going just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS. But the fact the Jazz, severely short-handed, were able to “keep up” with the Suns two nights ago on the road was an encouraging sign. Six of their nine top scorers did not play in the game Monday, including Mitchell, Gobert, Bogdanovic and Conley. Most of them are set to return tonight, so I’m taking the points as this is the 1st time all season the Jazz have been underdogs at home. Despite the recent slide, I’ve still got the Jazz rated #3 in my own power ratings. The last two games have seen them lose close decisions to the top two teams, Golden State and Phoenix, both on the road. Utah covered the spread in both games, much needed relief for their backers after going 4-14 ATS the previous 18 games. Even without most of their best players, the Jazz were up in the fourth quarter Monday in Phoenix, which is pretty remarkable when you think about it. Seven players actually finished in double figures. The Suns are also playing without some key pieces, namely Payne, Ayton and Crowder. So they aren’t at full strength either here. As I said earlier, this will be the first time this season that Utah is getting points at home. It does appear as if Gobert and Mitchell will again be out, but the other players should be back and if a skeleton crew could stick with the Suns on the road, then it stands to reason a more “complete” roster can also cover the number at home. The Jazz will badly want this win, knowing the game is on national television. 8* Utah |
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01-26-22 | Stephen F Austin v. Seattle University -2.5 | Top | 62-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
10* Seattle U (10:00 ET): The current leaders in the WAC have won seven in a row and now stand at 15-4 SU on the year. They’ve yet to drop a conference game and have covered the spread against five of their six WAC opponents thus far. I’ll look for the trend to continue tonight when Seattle hosts Stephen F Austin. The Lumberjacks, in their maiden season in the conference, currently stand at only 12-7 SU after suffering a 14-point loss at home to New Mexico State on Saturday. They are now just 1-5 ATS in their L6 games. Seattle is coming off a 76-68 win at Tarleton State where they were actually 1.5-point underdogs. It was the second straight outright win as a dog for the Redhawks, who also beat Abilene Christian 72-62 on the road two days earlier, as a six-point dog. As to why the team is performing so well of late, you can probably credit the defense, which is holding the opposition to below 40% shooting in conference play. That’s a problem for SF Austin St, which has been below 40% in three of its last four games. The Redhawks are the better team here and with the home court advantage, they should clearly be bigger favorites. They’ve gone 11-1 SU at home and averaged 80.7 PPG. So it’s not just the defense. Last time SF Austin St ventured on the road, they shot a hideous 26.2% from the floor in a 49-41 loss to Sam Houston State. This isn’t the Southland anymore and these road trips are about to get more daunting for the Lumberjacks, who are set to hit the West Coast for the first time as a WAC member. This number is way too short. 10* Seattle U |
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01-26-22 | Marquette v. Seton Hall -5 | Top | 73-63 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
8* Seton Hall (8:30 ET): Taking a flier on Seton Hall here as they have revenge and are off their worst loss of the season. The revenge angle stems from a controversial 73-72 loss to Marquette 11 days ago, a game that was decided on a late foul (which really could have gone either way). The bad loss came Saturday, 84-63 to St. John’s, a team the Pirates had just beaten at MSG two days prior. The loss occurred in historic Walsh Gymnasium and saw SH play without Bryce Aiken, who has been in concussion protocol ever since the loss to Marquette. Even if Aiken does not return here, I still believe in the Pirates and think this is an opportune time to “sell high” on Marquette. It was back on Jan 4 that I took Marquette in what ended up being an 88-56 romp over Providence. I took them again in their next game and they crushed Georgetown 92-64. A third straight double digit win (87-76 over DePaul) followed. Since then, the Golden Eagles have rattled off three consecutive upsets, all over ranked teams, to make it a six-game win streak. Now they come in ranked (#22) and are seemingly one of the hottest teams in the country. But two of those wins, the one over Seton Hall and then later a three-point win at Villanova, easily could have gone the other way. Seton Hall had a huge rebounding edge (47-26) in the first meeting, but could not overcome 20 turnovers. The other thing that hurt them was Marquette shooting much better from three-point range. With the rematch set to take place at home, the Pirates should take better care of the basketball and shoot better from behind the arc. Leading scorer Jared Rhoden, who was 6 of 28 on FG attempts in the L2 games, should be far more efficient and PG Richmond is a lock to improve after his disastrous showing Saturday (0 for 8 from the field). Aiken returning would be the “cherry on top,” but not necessary for SH to pull off a much-needed win. 8* Seton Hall |
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01-25-22 | Auburn v. Missouri +13.5 | Top | 55-54 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
8* Missouri (8:30 ET): Auburn is now ranked #1 for the first time in program history. This puts a big target on their back every game. I know that it’s been a great run of form for Bruce Pearl’s team as they have covered the spread in each of their last eight games. But Tuesday is a total letdown spot as the Tigers are coming off a home win against Kentucky and have Oklahoma (SEC/Big 12 Challenge) and rival Alabama on deck. Laying double digits on the road, they are ready to be faded here. Missouri has been a bit schizophrenic of late. But they have covered the number in each of the last three games. They’ve not been favored in a single SEC game so far. So the fact they are 2-4 SU in conference play isn’t that bad. They beat Alabama, as a 14-point underdog, here in Columbia. They also won by 25 at Ole Miss last week, a game where the Tigers were +7.5. Over the weekend, they fell in a rematch with Alabama, but easily covered the 18-point spread. They actually led by as many as 14 in that game. Three-point shooting has been pretty lousy for Mizzou all year. But there were signs of a turnaround in their last game, as they made 11 of 24 from behind the arc against Bama. Auburn will not shoot 56.8% again like they did vs. UK on Saturday. They trailed at halftime in that game, but scored 51 points over the final 20 minutes. Auburn’s last four road games have brought three single digit wins. We don’t even need that tonight. Look for the home dog to stay within the number here. Take the points. 8* Missouri |
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01-25-22 | Clippers v. Wizards -4 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:10 ET): The Wizards got off to a pretty nice start to the season, winning 10 of their first 13 games. But I saw some “holes” in their resume and there were some clear signs that regression would eventually take place. This is a team with a league-high eight wins by three points or less. Only the Magic and Pistons, the two obvious worst teams, have a worse point differential in the East. Sure enough, the Wiz are now reeling as they’ve lost four of five, all at home. They are 1-9 ATS in the L10 games. But, tonight is a situation I expect them to take advantage of. With road games at Memphis, Milwaukee and Philadelphia looming on the schedule, this game vs. the Clippers is a virtual “must-win.” After Sunday’s embarrassing loss to Boston, you’ve got to expect Washington will come out fired up at home. They can’t possibly shoot any worse than they did against the Celtics. They were just 35.5% overall and 23.5% from behind the arc. The good news is that they usually bounce back from games like that. They are 8-2 ATS this season and 21-8 ATS L3 seasons after a game scoring 100 points or less. The Clippers are still without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Don’t look for them to make a move into the top six out West. Had LA not made a stunning comeback against Philadelphia on Friday, they’d be coming into tonight as losers of five of their last six. The situation clearly favors the Wizards, who are playing their eighth straight home game while the Clippers are playing their fourth road game in seven nights, and the front end of a back to back. 8* Washington |
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01-24-22 | Alabama State v. Texas Southern -11 | Top | 66-73 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
9* TX Southern (8:30 ET): The last time I took Texas Southern, things went VERY well as the Tigers annihilated Mississippi Valley State 95-58. What followed (for them) were two close, painful losses - by one at Alcorn State and by three at Jackson State. But home court appears to be a “panacea” as they returned to Houston on Saturday and crushed Alabama A&M. The Tigers have only played three home games this season. But they are 3-0 and have won by 19, 37 and 34 points! So I’ll lay the number here. Can’t guarantee it will get as ugly as the last time I took them, or even Saturday. But Texas Southern is clearly a “different team” at home and shouldn’t have much difficulty thrashing Alabama State, who is 1-11 SU on the road so far. The Hornets just lost at Prairie View A&M, who is very bad, 70-67 on Saturday. They covered, but the fact they were underdogs speaks volumes. This is a bad basketball team. Consider that when Alabama State hosted Alabama A&M, they won by just four points. That’s the same opponent that TX Southern just beat by 34. For each of the last three games, Alabama State has been below 38 percent shooting. This is a team that’s been beaten by double digits on nine separate occasions this year. 9* TX Southern |
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01-24-22 | Hartford v. Binghamton +3 | Top | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
8* Binghamton (7:30 ET): Both of these teams come into Monday riding three-game ATS win streaks. But I’m not sure a 3-11 Hartford team deserves to be favored on the road, against anyone. The Hawks had nearly a month off (due to cancellations/postponements) when they beat New Hampshire 69-57 last week. They returned to their “losing ways” over the weekend, falling at Vermont 82-72. There’s really no shame in that loss (Hartford was +15.5), but again … a road favorite? Binghamton is 4-2 in conference play, so they’ve gotten in a lot more games than Hartford. Playing regularly keeps you in rhythm and thus I expect the Bearcats to be in better form this evening. They are off a 68-57 win over New Jersey Tech on Saturday, which was a revenge spot. With the next two games both coming against Hartford, there’s a real shot for Binghamton to put some distance between themselves and the middle of the pack in the America East. The only two teams ahead of them right now are Vermont and Stony Brook. Last time at home, Binghamton lost by three to Stony Brook in a game that could have gone either way. It was their second straight home loss, so motivation should be high coming into tonight. After not playing a single game for nearly a month, Hartford is now playing for a third time in less than a week. The Hawks are just 2-7 in “true” road games this year and after shooting 50%+ in the last two games, I see a downturn tonight. Take the points. 8* Binghamton |
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01-23-22 | Bills +2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -113 | 99 h 24 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (6:30 ET): The Bills looked pretty “Super” to me in destroying New England 47-17 last week, so - as underdogs - I’m making them my 10* Game of the Year this Sunday at Kansas City. Yes, the Chiefs looked pretty strong in their own right in the Wild Card Round. But that was against a subpar Steelers team that had no business even being in the playoff field. Let us not forget how the Bills came to Arrowhead Stadium earlier this season (Week 5) and really beat the Chiefs up, then walking away 38-20 winners. The Patriots team that the Bills destroyed last week were #3 in the league in regular season point differential. So that was a much more impressive win than what KC did vs. Pittsburgh. Really, I haven’t seen many more impressive performances than what the Bills turned in last Saturday. They scored touchdowns on all seven drives that did not end with a kneel down at the end of a half. This against a top five regular season defense. Prior to backup QB Mitchell Trubisky coming in for “mop-up duty” (three kneel downs), the Bills’ offense gained 480 total yards on just 51 total plays. Let’s talk about the Bills’ defense for a moment. It allowed the fewest points during the regular season, resulting in the league’s point differential. Another area where the Bills are #1 in the NFL in yards per play differential. So this is going to be a big step up in class for the Chiefs, who have a bit of a misleading 7-3 SU record vs. fellow playoff teams (including last week). Four of those seven wins were against the Raiders and Steelers, the two worst playoff teams. They also beat Philadelphia early in the season (Week 3) and Green Bay w/o Aaron Rodgers. Buffalo should have had a better record, but was 0-5 in one-score games. The Bills are my #1 rated team in the power rankings and should win here. Take the points. 10* Buffalo |
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01-23-22 | Massachusetts v. St. Louis -9 | Top | 59-90 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (2:00 ET): This is an immediate rematch from a game played on Thursday, which UMass (surprisingly) won 91-88. The Minutemen were three-point underdogs for that one, at home, but now must head to St. Louis where they’ve won just once in their last 10 tries. The Minutemen are also 1-7 SU away from home this season, including 0-4 in “true” road games. The likelihood of them matching their shooting from Thursday’s game is not likely here. St. Louis is holding visiting teams to 38.2% shooting this year. From the Billikens’ perspective, what made Thursday’s loss so disappointing is that they got a season-high 23 points from Gibson Jimerson as well as a career-best 20 points from Fred Thatch Jr. Of the two teams, St. Louis is far more likely to match Thursday’s offensive effort. I say that because UMass has been just dreadful at the defensive end all season. The Minutemen are allowing over 80 PPG on 50.2% shooting in conference play. All five A-10 opponents have scored at least 77 against them. My power ratings suggest a double digit spread here, so there’s value on the home team. UMass had lost six of seven, including all four conference games, prior to the upset on Thursday. St. Louis has covered the spread off each of its last three losses, all those games coming at home. While just 11-6 SU on the year, the Billikens could have a much better record. Five of their six losses have been by six points or less. Look for them to get their revenge with an emphatic win on Sunday. Lay the points. 8* St. Louis |
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01-22-22 | North Dakota v. UMKC -10 | Top | 74-79 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
8* UMKC (8:00 ET): The Roos proved to be a “bad take” the last time I had them (Monday vs. Denver) vs. they quickly bounced back with an 80-77 win over North Dakota State on Thursday. That win came as a two-point home underdog as they put together an excellent second half, rallying from a seven-point deficit at the break. I don’t know what happened on Monday when they lost outright to Denver, a team that had lost 10 in a row on the road, 63-55 as an 8.5-point favorite. This should be UMKC’s best performance in awhile. They host North Dakota, a team that also surprised me this week when it hung with Summit League power Oral Roberts. The line was +20.5 for the Fighting Hawks and they easily covered, only losing the game by a four-point margin. But it was still their seventh loss in a row and 10th in the last 11 games. North Dakota’s only win since November came against a non-board team. They are 4-15 SU overall and two of those wins came in the first three games of the season. The Fighting Hawks are 0-9 SU in “true” road games, losing by an average of 18.4 PPG. Going back further, they are 10-29 ATS L39 road games. As an underdog, they are 5-11 ATS and losing by an average of 13.1 PPG. I really see them struggling to keep up with Kansas City here, especially with them allowing 50% shooting in conference play. UMKC is holding teams to 38.1% shooting here at home. My power rankings say this line should be much higher and I won’t disagree! 8* UMKC |
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01-22-22 | Stetson v. North Alabama -3 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
9* North Alabama (4:30 ET): I love dabbling in these smaller conferences as that’s often where the most value is. Such is the case today in the Atlantic Sun where North Alabama hosts Stetson. Now both of these teams have been struggling in 2022. North Alabama has dropped six of seven with the one win coming by a single point. Stetson has dropped three in a row and four of its last five. But the key is home court advantage. Having it, North Alabama should be a much bigger favorite in this spot. The Lions have won six of seven at home this season, outscoring their opponents by 28.6 PPG! Now that’s a little skewed by them posting three blowout wins over non-DI teams. However, their last win came here in Florence as they upended Eastern Kentucky as 5.5-point underdogs. That’s an EKU team I just won with earlier this week. Since that win, the Lions have dropped two straight on the road, but one of them was in overtime. North Alabama has the distinction of having faced Gonzaga & Auburn this year (#1 and #2), so they won’t be intimidated by anyone from the A-Sun. Stetson is a team that’s only been favored in two games all year. Both times they were favored by two points or less. The Hatters are underdogs here, but it’s a short number. My point is this is typically not a team that the oddsmakers expect to win. They are 2-6 SU on the road. Earlier in the week, Stetson lost in OT to Florida Gulf Coast, which was extra painful as they battled back from a 15-point halftime deficit at home. The two games prior saw them average just 49.5 points. 9* North Alabama |
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01-22-22 | College of Charleston v. James Madison -2 | Top | 94-95 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
10* James Madison (4:00 ET): Both of these Colonial teams got off to respectable starts to the season, but after dealing with multiple cancellations because of COVID-19, conference play has been a surprising struggle. James Madison is a team I’ve won with before; I took them as a slight favorite when they crushed Northeastern 89-66 earlier this month. But since that win, the Dukes are 0-3 ATS including an ugly loss on the road to Elon and a loss at the buzzer to UNC Wilmington on Thursday. Between them and Charleston, I think JMU is the more likely team to bounce back on Saturday. Charleston is 0-4 ATS in CAA play, winning only one game straight up. That win was over the Elon team that blew JMU out. But the difference is Charleston got Elon at home. On Thursday, Charleston lost 74-67 to Towson as they could only score 24 points in the first half, a season-low for the team. Now 1-6 ATS in the L7 games overall, the Cougars are playing their second road game in three days, a scenario they’ve yet to face this season. On the road, this team is shooting just 40.4%. The loss suffered by James Madison on Thursday was just their second at home all season. This is a team my power ratings have felt has been underrated for awhile; they beat Virginia here at home! For the year, JMU is averaging 80.7 PPG at home while giving up only 61.6. They are shooting 50.5% from the field here (38.5% from three) while allowing just 39.3% overall shooting (27.9% from three). At the end of the day, I just can’t see the Dukes dropping a three straight game as chalk. 10* James Madison |
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01-21-22 | Fresno State v. Nevada -1.5 | Top | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
8* Nevada (11:00 ET): It’s been a tough run for the Wolf Pack as of late, particularly at the betting window. This team hasn’t covered a spread since November, although that’s a little misleading as they only played three games in December. One of those was not lined (against MN-Duluth), but it’s still an 0-6 ATS run heading into Friday. Nevada is 3-3 straight up in those six games, alternating wins and losses along the way. They are off a loss here, 77-67 to Wyoming, so if the pattern holds that means they are set to get back in the win column. A win would almost certainly mean a cover. That’s what I’m banking on here. Now Fresno State comes into Reno on a bit of a run. The Bulldogs have won and covered three straight, beating San Jose State, UNLV and Utah State, all as a favorite. FSU is 12-4 ATS on the year, which is one of the best cover rates in the country, but Nevada is an opponent that has given them all sorts of trouble through the years. The last eight head to head meetings have all been won by the Wolf Pack, including two double digit decisions here in Reno last season. Now it was a home loss for Nevada last time out. It was close most of the way vs. Wyoming, but things got away from the Wolf Pack down the stretch. The final margin was the most they trailed by the entire game. I see this team being eager to not lose two in a row at home. They’ve got the oddsmakers’ respect being favored against Wyoming and Fresno State, two of the four Mountain West teams that are 13-4 SU or better. That’s probably because all four of FSU’s losses this season have come on the road where they are averaging only 62.9 PPG. 8* Nevada |
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01-21-22 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -3.5 | Top | 122-118 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
10* Denver (9:05 ET): Memphis hasn’t lost B2B games since a three-game losing streak right before X-Mas. Since that three-game slide, they’ve won 12 of their last 14 games and now have a rather ridiculous 22-6 SU record over their last 28 games. But they have been blown out two of the last three times they’ve taken the court, including 126-114 at Milwaukee on Wednesday. I’ll call for them to lose B2B games - for the first time in almost a month - as they visit Denver tonight, short-handed. The Grizzlies likely will not have two of their top three scorers for this game. Dillon Brooks is out with an injured ankle while Desmond Bane is in health and safety protocol. That’s a tough break when getting set to face a Nuggets team that has scored 130 (or more) points in three of its last four contests. Now the last game saw Denver have to go to OT to beat the Clippers, but they got a triple double from MVP Nikola Jokic, who had 49 points. As the season progresses, expect the Nuggets to solidify themselves as a top six team in the West. Memphis is 14-7 SU on the road thus far, but their point differential indicates that might be a fortunate mark. They’re only scoring 0.4 PPG more than they allow away from home. This is a big double revenge game for Denver as they’ve lost twice at Memphis this season, including by just two points in the last meeting. Both those games were in early November. It’s not just two of the top three scorers that are out for the Grizzlies, three other players are in protocol as well. Look for the revenge-minded Nuggets to take advantage. 10* Denver |
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01-20-22 | North Dakota v. Oral Roberts -20.5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
10* Oral Roberts (8:00 ET): Oral Roberts is looking to keep pace with South Dakota State (who handed them their lone conference loss) in the Summit League. The Eagles are flying high with a 6-1 SU conference record and have won five straight since going down 82-76 at SDSU back on December 22nd (did cover as 9-point underdogs). It’s a fairly easy matchup on the docket for Thursday, one that I believe ORU is going to win in blowout fashion. North Dakota is at the opposite end of the Summit League spectrum right now. The Fighting Hawks are 0-5 SU in conference play and 4-14 SU overall this season. Things have been pretty ugly for some time now as they’ve dropped 13 of the last 15 games and both wins were against non-DI opponents. The last time ND won a game was December 14th. Their eight road games have all resulted in defeat, by an average of almost 20 PPG. They’ve covered the spread in just one of them. This promises to be one of the toughest road trips of the season. Oral Roberts has covered seven of its last eight games. They have dominated at home this season, averaging 90.7 PPG while allowing only 59.4. I expect the margin of victory tonight to approach 30 points. The Eagles are shooting above 44% from three at home while allowing opponents to shoot just 27.1%. North Dakota is getting torched on the defensive end with the first five conference opponents shooting better than 50%.. The Fighting Hawks are 24-47 ATS their L71 games, including 9-29 on the road. 10* Oral Roberts |
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01-20-22 | Georgetown +11 v. Providence | Top | 75-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
8* Georgetown (5:00 ET): Things have gone rather poorly for the Hoyas of late. They’ve lost four in a row, including three straight by double digits to open Big East play. COVID-19 has certainly played a significant role with even HC Patrick Ewing having to miss games. Ewing is expected back on the bench tonight though and I’m expecting a bit of an inspired effort. It also helps that G’town is facing an opponent that’s also been in a battle with COVID, causing them to be inactive for nearly two weeks. That would be Providence, a team who I already felt was overrated and not worthy of being ranked in the Top 25. The Friars have the #1 “luck rating” (per KenPom) in the country this season. Their record is 14-2 and they are ranked #21 in the country coming into this game. However, my power ratings don’t even think of them as a top 45 team. After a 12-day layoff, expect the Friars to struggle a bit here, especially at the outset. Earlier this month, before their COVID pause, I played against Providence twice. The first play went even better than expected as the Friars got destroyed by Marquette, 88-56, thus proving my point about them being overrated. Two days later, they bounced back with an 83-73 win over St. John’s (at home), but note they were down at halftime in that one. Georgetown is desperate and with Providence coming off such an extended (unplanned) layoff, I’m taking the points. 8* Georgetown |
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01-19-22 | Marquette v. Villanova -12 | Top | 57-54 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
8* Villanova (8:00 ET): This pains me a bit as Marquette treated me so nicely in convincing victories over Providence (88-56) and Georgetown (92-64) earlier this month. The Golden Eagles have now won four in a row after home wins over DePaul and Seton Hall in the L10 days. But they’re running into an even hotter - and better - squad this evening. Villanova is currently ranked #11 in the country and probably ought to be even higher. Both KenPom and my own power ratings have the Wildcats as a top five team. ‘Nova certainly looked like a Top 5 team on Sunday when they blasted Butler for a 40-point win. That was the Wildcats’ sixth consecutive victory, four of those coming by 15 points or greater. The 82-42 beatdown of Butler tied their largest MOV for the season, matching what they did all the way back in the very first game (beat Mount St. Mary’s 91-51). Jay Wright’s team shot almost 60% overall from the floor on Sunday and was 12 of 19 from three-point range. Now you may be thinking it will be difficult to repeat that kind of performance. That’s true, but we also don’t need a 40-point win here. Villanova is 6-0 SU at home with an average margin of victory of 29.1 PPG though! Marquette had some shooting issues in the 2H vs. Seton Hall on Saturday, a game they won by a single point on a late free throw. The ultra-slow tempo that Nova likes to play at will bother the Golden Eagles here. As good as they’ve looked recently, Marquette is still not a Top 40 team in the country. 8* Villanova |
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01-19-22 | Nets +2 v. Wizards | Top | 119-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:10 ET): I gotta believe this is where the Nets get back on track. I know that they are without Kevin Durant for the time being, but James Harden is still here and because tonight is a road game, that means Kyrie Irving is eligible to play. The Nets have been better this season on the road anyway, sporting a 15-5 SU record (as opposed to only 12-11 SU at home). They did lose in Cleveland on Monday, but have won four straight off a SU loss. Take the points. This play is also guided by the fact I’m not a big believer in the Wizards, who I think could fall out of the top ten in the Eastern Conference by season’s end. Propping the Wizards up so far is an extremely fortunate 8-2 SU record in games decided by three points or less. That’s the most “close wins” in the league right now. In fact, no other team has more than five. The Wiz are also 3-0 SU in OT games this season. Now I’ll give them some credit for an impressive 117-98 beatdown of Philadelphia the other night. But before that, Washington had failed to cover six straight games. Five of those ATS losses were as favorites. Brooklyn has also struggled at the betting window this month, going just 2-9 ATS their L11 games. So something will have to “give” in that regard tonight. I just find it hard to believe, that with Harden and Irving in the lineup, that the Nets are underdogs to a team like the Wizards, who have the third worst point differential and fourth worst net efficiency in the Eastern Conference. Brooklyn is 4-2 SU/ATS as an underdog this year. 10* Brooklyn |
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01-19-22 | Lehigh v. Navy -12.5 | Top | 69-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
10* Navy (7:00 ET): Navy will look to continue its mastery of Lehigh as it looks to stay atop the Patriot League standings after tonight. The Midshipmen come in sporting a 5-1 SU conference record, tied with Loyola MD for first place. All the Patriot League teams are in action Wednesday, including Loyola, who is also at home against Boston U. Of the co-leaders, the Middies have the easier matchup. They are 4-0 SU/ATS the L2 seasons against Lehigh, who comes in at just 6-12 SU overall on the year. Now Lehigh has been a bit pesky as an underdog this season, covering all four times the oddsmakers have given them 12.5 or more points. But the Mountain Hawks also lost all four of those games - to Rutgers, Virginia, Maryland and Yale - three of them by double digits. There was a 4-1 run to open conference play, including a rather shocking 97-64 win at Bucknell (as 3.5-point underdog), however Lehigh then “came back down to Earth” on Sunday, losing at Loyola MD by 12 as a two-point home dog. Navy is only 4-3 SU at home in 2021-22, which is somewhat surprising. Their lone conference loss did occur here in Annapolis, 69-50 to Colgate, just last Thursday. But the Midshipmen quickly responded by sinking Boston U on the road, 72-65, on Sunday. I can’t see them dropping B2B home games in league play. This Navy team plays solid defense as it gives up only 59.9 PPG. They are 9-2 ATS when favored this season and 27-10 ATS in the chalk role the L3 seasons. This number should be closer to -20. 10* Navy |
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01-19-22 | North Carolina A&T v. North Carolina-Asheville -3.5 | Top | 73-71 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
8* UNC Asheville (6:30 ET): While I don’t think UNC Asheville is going to win the Big South this year, the Bulldogs can certainly still be a “player” in the mix. But first they’ll need to get back on track after suffering a couple of close defeats. The previous seven days brought heartbreak against both Winthrop and USC Upstate as Asheville lost those respective games in overtime and in the closing seconds. They were 8.5 point favorites here at home against USC Upstate on Saturday. I can’t see B2B losses as home chalk. Against Winthrop, the Bulldogs had a decided edge in three-point shooting, but couldn’t stop the Eagles from inside the arc. Winthrop went a somewhat insane 31 of 49 on 2PA in that game. Then against USC Upstate, it was three-point shooting that killed Asheville. They let the opponents hit 60% from behind the arc while only hitting 15% themselves. I’m definitely sensing there will be a “reversal” in shooting percentage tonight as the Bulldogs face a team that’s shooting just 42.5% overall for the season, including 31.3% from three. North Carolina A&T had won four straight before running into High Point on Saturday. That 78-71 loss was the Aggies’ first setback in league play thus far. But this team is just 2-8 SU in “true” road games as well as 2-8 SU as an underdog. This line looks a bit “short,” doesn’t it? UNC Asheville is allowing only 59.4 PPG and 26.7% shooting from three this season at home, where it is 7-2 SU. The gap between these teams is bigger than what this number reflects. 8* UNC Asheville |
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01-18-22 | South Florida v. Houston -18.5 | Top | 55-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:00 ET): Houston, who was in the Final Four last season, is a team I believe should have been in the Top 10 long ago. They’re finally there after seven straight wins, most of which have been by double digits. But the Cougars did survive a close one Saturday at Tulsa, holding on for a two-point win as 11-point favorites. Injuries continue to mount for Kelvin Sampson’s team, but note they were up 17 at the half on Tulsa. Here they face a team that just beat by 17 on the road earlier this month. Including the one vs. Houston, South Florida had lost its first three conference games by an average of just over 14 PPG. But the Bulls then pulled off a somewhat shocking result on Saturday, beating UCF 75-51 as an eight-point dog. But that was at home and the opponent had an absolutely miserable shooting night, making only 33.3% for the game including 2 of 20 from three-point range. That led to USF’s biggest margin of victory over UCF in seven years. The other key was a near 2:1 rebounding edge (53-26). All of the Bulls’ victories this season have come when they have an edge on the boards. That is unlikely to happen tonight as Houston typically controls the glass and will be using a larger lineup due to the injuries in the backcourt. The Cougars are 9-0 SU at home this season, winning by an average of almost 30 PPG. USF is shooting just 38.4% for the season and can’t count on UH shooting the ball as poorly as UCF did. The Cougars have won all five meetings the L3 seasons, four of them by 17+ points. 8* Houston |
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01-18-22 | Butler v. Connecticut -12.5 | Top | 59-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
8* Connecticut (7:00 ET): UConn has (finally) cracked the Top 25 this week, but this is a team I’ve considered “worthy of being ranked” for some time now. The Huskies are actually 15th in my own personal power ratings. Were they a bit fortunate to get by St. John’s, in overtime, last Wednesday? Yes, they were. They tied the game on a foul shot with just 1.3 seconds left in regulation. But it was also a much-deserved result following close losses to Providence and Seton Hall. UConn has already played four OT games this season. After some postponements around the holiday, each of the L2 games have required “extra time.” But this one won’t as the Huskies host a Butler team that’s coming off a 40-point loss at Villanova on Sunday. UConn has been excellent in Storrs this season, going 7-1 and outscoring teams by almost 26 PPG. Their overall scoring margin for the season (+15.1 PPG) ranks 17th nationally and they are averaging 80.3 PPG, which is 24th. UConn had another postponement on Saturday as they were set to face Providence. So the schedule sets up quite nicely for them here. They’ve been off for five days while Butler is playing its third road game in five days and second in the last 72 hours. While Sunday was their worst loss of the season, the Bulldogs have been getting blown out regularly. Six times they’ve been beaten by at least 15 points. Tonight figures to add to that list. Rebounding has been a major concern thus far for Butler and UConn is strong on the boards. 8* Connecticut |
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01-18-22 | Lipscomb v. Eastern Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 72-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
10* Eastern Kentucky (7:00 ET): Eastern Kentucky’s maiden season in the Atlantic Sun Conference (they were formerly in the Ohio Valley Conference) has gotten off to a bit of a rocky start. The Colonels are 0-4 SU/ATS in league play and what’s shocking about that is the fact they were favored in all four games! Almost every game has been close and tonight is a spot where I figure EKU is set to get back on track. They are hosting a Lipscomb team that’s lost three in a row and is just 8-11 SU on the season. Now EKU is only 8-10 SU, but this number set by the oddsmakers really “speaks volumes” doesn’t it? The Colonels’ record really should be a whole lot better as they are 0-5 SU in games decided by five points or less. The first season in a new conference can be tough, but what is killing EKU right now is that they are shooting just 37.4% vs. A-Sun opponents. You’ve got to figure that number will improve, while at the same time they won’t be letting teams shoot 50.9% against them. At home, the Colonels are averaging 86.1 PPG while allowing only 67.7. Lipscomb has shot 52.8% so far in conference play, yet is only 1-3 SU in those four games, which should tell you something about how poorly they play defense. The Bisons are giving up over 80 PPG for the year and the last four road games have seen them allow 88, 93, 95 and 97! This is the first ever trip to Richmond, KY for Lipscomb and it doesn’t figure to go well. Look for the home team to record its first ever A-Sun victory! 10* Eastern Kentucky |
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01-17-22 | Suns v. Spurs +4.5 | Top | 121-107 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (8:40 ET): The Spurs FINALLY got back into the win column on Saturday, beating the Clippers 101-94 as a 1-point home favorite. It was just their second win since the day after X-Mas, the other was by just two points at Boston on January 5th. But, I’ve previously made the case that this team is better than its record (currently 16-27 SU) and they should find their way into the play-in round mix. At home, San Antonio has actually outscored opponents despite an 8-12 mark here. Phoenix is in the second game of a back to back. They played Detroit yesterday afternoon and that meant an easy win as they raced to a 135-108 decision over the worst team in the league. But not all the news was good as DeAndre Ayton was lost to an ankle injury in the first quarter and thus is likely to miss this game. Being without one of your top players is a tough break when playing w/o rest. This is also the Suns’ fourth straight road game and third in the past four days. San Antonio has been competitive in two previous meetings with Phoenix, losing both by just four points. I expect better offensive efficiency from the Spurs here than what they showed in the win over the Clippers. That game saw them score a season-low 36 points in the paint and shoot just 41.0% from the field. Yet seven players still finished in double figures, led by PG Murray’s 18. Phoenix will NOT shoot as well as they did on Sunday (58.6%), so take the points in this one. 10* San Antonio |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (8:15 ET): The Cardinals and Rams split two regular season meetings, both winning on the road. That’s the exact same scenario we had with Patriots-Bills on Saturday (a game where I backed the Bills, as part of a teaser, at home). I’ll do the same here with the Rams, figuring it’s highly unlikely that the home team would lose all three meetings in a season series. I know that Arizona has been the quintessential “road warrior” this season (8-1 SU/ATS), but my view is that the Rams are the better team. It wasn’t just the Cardinals’ road record that defied logic in the regular season. They also come into the playoffs a perfect 6-0 ATS as underdogs this year, winning straight up all six times. Per ESPN’s Stats & Info department, it’s the most outright wins as a dog in a single season, without a loss, during the Super Bowl Era! But this is no longer the same team that started the year 7-0 SU. They went just 4-6 SU down the stretch and no longer have WR DeAndre Hopkins, a major loss. This will also be QB Kyler Murray’s first playoff game. The Rams are better built for the playoffs than the Cardinals. They’ve also played better down the stretch. Los Angeles hasn’t lost a game in regulation since November 28th at Lambeau Field. That run includes a 30-23 win at Arizona on MNF. HC Sean McVay has owned Arizona during his tenure here, going 9-1 SU and ATS. Going back to that Arizona underdog trend, teams with a perfect ATS regular season record as dogs (at least two wins) cash only 40% in the playoffs. 10* LA Rams |
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01-17-22 | Denver v. UMKC -7.5 | Top | 63-55 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
10* UMKC (8:00 ET): Kansas City (UMKC) is a Summit League side that I feel has been underrated by the oddsmakers most of this season. This isn’t the first time I’ve backed the Roos. Back in December, they came through as a 10* play for me, beating Green Bay 64-55. They’ve gone just 3-3 SU in six games since that win and lost 84-72 as a 4.5-point home dog to Oral Roberts over the weekend. But this shapes up as the easiest matchup since that win over Green Bay over a month ago. I’m laying the number. Denver will be playing its third road game in five days here. That’s a tough spot, especially for a team that’s a hideous 1-11 SU away from home this season. They are 0-10 SU in “true” road games, including losses to South Dakota and South Dakota State last week. The Pioneers gave up 80 points in both games and never really threatened either time. They’ve now lost three in a row overall and their last four defeats have all been by nine points or more. UMKC has been a rather dominant home team thus far. They are 5-1 SU here and have outscored opponents by 27.6 points per game! They are scoring 81.8 PPG and allowing just 54.2. I expect solid shooting in this game from the Roos as Denver is giving up more than 80 PPG in conference play. Certainly, the home team is due for an uptick in shooting after making only 39.7% in their first four Summit League games.They are shooting 48.7% from the floor at home. The Roos captured both meetings last season by a 12 point margin. 10* UMKC |
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01-17-22 | Portland +10.5 v. Loyola Marymount | Top | 58-70 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
8* Portland (7:00 ET): Portland has been a hot team at the betting window, covering the spread in each of its last four contests. Last time out, the Pilots evened their SU conference record at 1-1 with a rather dominating 82-63 win at Pepperdine. What was impressive about that showing wasn’t just the fact that Portland was a 6.5-point road underdog, but that they were also coming off a narrow OT loss just 48 hours prior. This team easily could be 4-0 SU (as well as 4-0 ATS) its last four games as the two losses have been by a total of seven points. I’m definitely taking the points here. Meanwhile, Loyola Marymount is reeling a bit as they’ve dropped B2B games to open the WCC schedule, both on the road. After getting waxed 97-73 by San Francisco (2nd best team in the league), the Lions were upset (as three-point favorites) at San Diego on Saturday. LMU has now dropped four of five overall with three of the losses coming by exactly five points. Their lone win in that stretch came at Bellarmine. Loyola Marymount will be thrilled to be back home after, like Portland, playing its last four games on the road. But home court advantage alone does not justify a double digit spread here. The Lions have actually lost two straight at home, losing to New Mexico State and Grand Canyon, both times as a short favorite. I’m a little shocked at how big this number is, considering that Portland has held the L4 opponents to an average of 61 PPG in regulation. In both losses, they had a halftime lead. An outright upset would not surprise me here. 8* Portland |
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01-16-22 | Jazz -4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
10* Utah (8:15 ET): Even though they have lost four in a row and fallen to fourth place in the Western Conference standings, the Jazz remain second overall in my NBA power ratings (trailing only Golden State). When looking at this four-game losing streak, it is critical to note that Rudy Gobert has missed all of the games. Gobert has been cleared to return, giving the team its top defensive presence back, and I think that leads to a return to winning ways tonight in Denver. The Nuggets have seemingly established themselves as a top six team in the West with B2B dominant wins. It was a 140-108 drubbing of Portland on Thursday. That was a result I was happy to see, having laid the points with the Nuggets. But recall why I did so. The Blazers were extremely short-handed going into that game, including no Lillard or McCollum. Last night, Denver was a 133-96 winner over the Lakers, who are still without Anthony Davis. You’ve got to wonder if the Nuggets “used up” all of its good shooting last night. They made 57.5% from three-point range, a display that they cannot possibly hope to repeat here, especially if Gobert does return for Utah. Denver has really struggled on the second night of back to backs this season, going just 1-5 SU/ATS in this situation. The Jazz have had three days off to get ready for this game, so the schedule really sets up nicely for them to end this rare losing skid. 10* Utah |
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01-16-22 | 49ers v. Cowboys -2.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -125 | 43 h 21 m | Show |
8* Dallas (4:30 ET): This is the lone Wild Card game where the teams involved did NOT meet in the regular season. Perhaps the uncertainty of how this game will look is the reason oddsmakers set such a “vanilla” number, but in my opinion the line is far too low. Dallas led the NFC in point differential (+172) and while it should be noted they really did beat up on their lousy division (NFC East), part of their league-best 12-5 ATS mark was a 10-3 ATS record when favored. I really have a hard time believing that Jimmy Garoppolo is going to win a playoff game on the road. Now that may seem strange because of the fact I took Jimmy G and the Niners last week, plus the points, against the Rams. But that was a situation where they NEEDED to win and the Rams had already clinched a playoff spot. Despite that dynamic, SF found itself down 17-0 in the first half. They tied the game with a late TD in regulation before winning on a FG in overtime. Now had the 49ers been matched up with another team here in the Wild Card Round, I might have considered them. But this is a bad matchup. The 49ers’ defense allowed 51 pass plays of 20+ yards. That sounds bad when getting set to face this Cowboys’ offense. With receivers CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper healthy, which they are now, this is a tough group to stop. Dallas averages 36.4 PPG at home! On the flip side, San Francisco is 2-6 SU this season when Garoppolo throws two or more interceptions. The Cowboys have a +14 turnover differential. I have too much respect for the Cowboys, who are #1 in DVOA, not to take them here at home. 8* Dallas |
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01-16-22 | Georgetown v. St. John's -10.5 | Top | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
8* St. John’s (4:30 ET): The Red Storm suffered another tough loss on Wednesday, falling 86-78 at UConn in overtime. It was a game they thought they had won when Julian Champagnie hit a three-pointer with 4.8 seconds left in regulation, giving the Johnnies a 71-70 lead. But a late foul call, on a putback attempt, allowed for UConn to tie the game by making one of two free throw attempts. For St. John’s, that loss comes on the heels of blowing a halftime lead at Providence (and losing 83-73) last Saturday. On Sunday afternoon, the Johnnies are catching the right team. Georgetown has lost three in a row, all at home, as COVID has played a role. Two double digit scorers and coach Patrick Ewing were out for Thursday’s 72-58 loss to Butler. That came after a game I played against the Hoyas. They were three-point underdogs at Marquette on 1/7 and ended up losing 92-64. Ewing really ripped the team after that one, but as of yet, his words have had zero effect. G’town is 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season and this will be just their second “true” road game. All nine St. John’s wins this season have been at home where they are averaging 84.9 PPG. A possibly depleted G’town squad isn’t going to be able to stay within that kind of number. Even if they were at full strength, I wouldn’t like the Hoyas’ chances here. The Red Storm have three double-digit scorers, led by Champagnie’s 21.2 PPG. This is a team that’s better than its record. The oddsmakers seem to know that and I’ll lay the number. 8* St. John’s |
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01-15-22 | Bulls v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:40 ET): The Bulls didn’t just lose a game last night, they also lost Zach LaVine to a knee injury. LaVine did not travel with the team to Boston as he’s set to have a MRI. The belief is that the injury isn’t too serious, but obviously he isn’t playing Saturday. Chicago’s depth was already being tested with Alex Caruso, Derrick Jones Jr., Javonte Green and Tyler Cook all on the mend. Perhaps of greater concern is that the Bulls have now given up 138 points in B2B games, letting the Nets and Warriors both shoot 56% from the field. Now the Celtics aren’t as prolific as either of those two squads, but they are capable of hanging a big number on the Bulls here. Boston was also in action Friday night and the result wasn’t good as they fell 111-99 at Philadelphia. They were down by as many as 28 thanks to a terrible first quarter. But the game prior saw the C’s shoot rather well as they got 30+ point games from both Tatum and Brown. This is a better team at home where their SU record is 13-8. Chicago has lost its last two games by a combined 68 points, so they are reeling. That’s the first time since the NBA instituted the conference format (in 1970) that a first place team lost consecutive games by an average of 30 PPG. This is a big revenge spot for Boston, who blew a 14-point 4Q lead here at home and lost to Chicago back on Nov 1. Even before the LaVine injury, I was a bit skeptical of the Bulls’ ability to remain on top of the East. The Celtics, meanwhile, should be higher than they are in the standings. Lay the points. 10* Boston |
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01-15-22 | Texas -2 v. Iowa State | Top | 70-79 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
10* Texas (2:00 ET): Still not sold on Iowa State’s #15 rating as they are outside the top 40 in my own power ratings. The Cyclones have won just ONE of their last 22 Big XII games and that was by four points over Texas Tech last week. They are coming off B2B road losses here, the first of which was at Oklahoma last Saturday. ISU was a six-point dog to an unranked team there, which should tell you all you need to know. They were double digit dogs at Kansas on Wednesday and lost by one, 62-61. Texas just beat Oklahoma, though in Austin, 66-52 and comes into this game ranked #22. I’ve got them higher at #15 in my own power ratings, so it’s not at all surprising to see the Longhorns favored here in Ames. What I really like about this team is the fact they lead in the country in scoring defense at 53.0 PPG allowed. Against Oklahoma, they allowed just 40% shooting, including 1 of 13 from three-point range. Only Gonzaga, all the way back in the second game of the season, has been able to crack 64 against UT. Iowa State trailed Kansas by nine late in the game Wednesday. They shot just 40.7%. That was after shooting 55% against Oklahoma, an effort negated by them allowing 61.7% shooting in the same game. It was a poor shooting effort in the victory over Texas Tech at 30%. I’m just going to stick with what I said last Saturday when taking OU minus the points. The Cyclones are due to tumble out of the Top 25. Their recent offensive showings tell me it could be an ugly day at that end here. 10* Texas |
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01-14-22 | Davidson v. Richmond | Top | 87-84 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
10* Richmond (9:00 ET): This is a critical home game for Richmond, who already has two conference losses. They welcome in a Davidson team that is 13-2 SU overall and 3-0 in A-10 play. I say the Spiders should still be the favorites here; they are 7-1 SU at home and have had Davidson’s number the last few years. Head to head, Richmond has won seven of the last nine head to head matchups while also going 8-1 ATS. The circumstances dictate that they’ll be the more “desperate” (and aggressive) team tonight. Richmond did pick up its first league win last time out, beating UMass 80-72. They failed to cover the spread, but it was 10.5 points. Just a win is all we need here and the schedule certainly sets up well for the Spiders. That win against UMass took place on January 5th, nine days ago. They’ve had two games postponed since. Davidson was in action this past Tuesday, also against UMass (won 77-67). The Wildcats have actually played two games in the time since Richmond last took the court. The other was a 72-68 win over Rhode Island. Like the game vs. UMass, that was at home. Davidson is 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS in “true” road games thus far, but save for the cross-country trip to face San Francisco (which they lost), this is the toughest one. The Wildcats didn’t cover in either of those last two victories and Richmond is a place where they’ve lost AND failed to cover three straight times. Note that Richmond was up 19 at the half over UMass and won comfortably despite the Minutemen shooting 55% from three. This spot sets us quite well for the home team. 10* Richmond |
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01-14-22 | Magic +11 v. Hornets | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:05 ET): It’s been a great four-game run for Charlotte, who won by 29 over Detroit, beat Milwaukee twice (both times at home) and then went to Philadelphia to pick up a 109-98 victory on Wednesday. The Hornets are now up to seventh in the East and just one game out of fifth. This despite having a negative scoring differential on the season and the second worst scoring defense in the league. This is a big number for them to lay; they’ve only been favored in 10 games all season! Meanwhile, Orlando hasn’t been able to get over the hump. They suffered a 10th consecutive loss on Wednesday, falling in Washington 112-106 to the Wizards. I cashed them as underdogs though. Five of the Magic’s last six losses have been by six points or less. They’ve led or been tied going into the 4Q in four of those six games. Wednesday saw them dig an early hole (trailed 33-16 after 1Q) but they fought back valiantly. As they have gotten closer to full strength, the Magic have had four different leading scorers in the last five games. What will cost Charlotte the cover in this game is their defense. I know that they somehow held Milwaukee and Philadelphia below 100 points the L2 games. But for the season, the Hornets are allowing 115.5 PPG. Unless they “go off” at the offensive end (something I don’t see happening), it’s going to be incredibly difficult to cover a spread this large with the defensive regression I am projecting. Orlando does have double revenge here from two prior losses to the Hornets this season. Both losses were by single digits. 8* Orlando |
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Bryan Power ALL Sports Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-16-22 | Blazers +11.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 123-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
02-16-22 | Winthrop v. Gardner-Webb -3.5 | Top | 81-70 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
02-16-22 | Mississippi State v. Alabama -6 | Top | 75-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
02-16-22 | Massachusetts +12 v. St Bonaventure | Top | 71-83 | Push | 0 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
02-15-22 | Wisconsin v. Indiana -3 | Top | 74-69 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
02-14-22 | Warriors -6 v. Clippers | Top | 104-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
02-14-22 | Oklahoma State +10.5 v. Kansas | Top | 62-76 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
02-14-22 | Mississippi Valley State v. Alabama State -11 | Top | 85-71 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
02-14-22 | William & Mary +13 v. NC-Wilmington | Top | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
02-13-22 | Rams -4 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 152 h 17 m | Show |
02-13-22 | Nebraska v. Iowa -16.5 | Top | 75-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
02-12-22 | Cincinnati v. Tulsa +3 | Top | 77-83 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
02-12-22 | Cavs +3.5 v. 76ers | Top | 93-103 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
02-12-22 | Eastern Kentucky +1.5 v. Lipscomb | Top | 73-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
02-12-22 | Rutgers +8.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 73-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
02-12-22 | Arkansas v. Alabama -5 | Top | 67-68 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
02-11-22 | Fresno State +6 v. Colorado State | Top | 50-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
02-11-22 | St Bonaventure +5.5 v. St. Louis | Top | 68-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
02-11-22 | Wolves v. Bulls -3.5 | Top | 122-134 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
02-10-22 | Pacific +33 v. Gonzaga | Top | 51-89 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
02-10-22 | Raptors v. Rockets +8.5 | Top | 139-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
02-10-22 | Georgia State +1.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 61-50 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
02-09-22 | Louisville +7.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 57-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
02-09-22 | Richmond -1 v. George Mason | Top | 84-87 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
02-09-22 | Hampton v. North Carolina-Asheville -10 | Top | 53-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
02-08-22 | Air Force v. UNLV -10 | Top | 44-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
02-08-22 | Clippers v. Grizzlies -8.5 | Top | 109-135 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
02-08-22 | Ohio +3.5 v. Toledo | Top | 62-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
02-08-22 | Western Michigan v. Miami-OH -10.5 | Top | 57-62 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
02-07-22 | Raptors -2.5 v. Hornets | Top | 116-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
02-07-22 | Lafayette v. Navy -9.5 | Top | 44-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
02-07-22 | Virginia +12 v. Duke | Top | 69-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
02-07-22 | NC-Wilmington v. Hofstra -7.5 | Top | 71-73 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
02-06-22 | Wyoming v. Fresno State -3 | Top | 61-59 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
02-06-22 | 76ers -1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 119-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
02-06-22 | Maryland +9.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 67-82 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
02-05-22 | Suns v. Wizards +8.5 | Top | 95-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
02-05-22 | Northwestern State v. McNeese State -4 | Top | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
02-05-22 | Michigan +9.5 v. Purdue | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
02-05-22 | Louisville +7.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 69-92 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
02-05-22 | Tulsa +3.5 v. Temple | Top | 58-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
02-04-22 | Thunder +8.5 v. Blazers | Top | 96-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
02-03-22 | Kings +13.5 v. Warriors | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
02-03-22 | Southeastern Louisiana v. McNeese State -1 | Top | 83-78 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
02-03-22 | Bulls v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 120-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
02-02-22 | Blazers v. Lakers -3 | Top | 94-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
02-02-22 | Wizards +10.5 v. 76ers | Top | 106-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
02-02-22 | Longwood v. North Carolina-Asheville +3 | Top | 56-48 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
02-02-22 | Chicago State v. Abilene Christian -17.5 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
02-01-22 | Providence v. St. John's -3 | Top | 86-82 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
02-01-22 | Kansas -4.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 70-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
02-01-22 | Creighton v. Connecticut -9.5 | Top | 59-55 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
01-31-22 | Northern Colorado v. Portland State +4 | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
01-31-22 | New Mexico v. San Diego State -14 | Top | 47-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
01-31-22 | Warriors -10.5 v. Rockets | Top | 122-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
01-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
01-30-22 | Blazers +6.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-130 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
01-29-22 | Wizards +5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 95-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
01-29-22 | Illinois -3 v. Northwestern | Top | 59-56 | Push | 0 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
01-29-22 | Baylor v. Alabama +4 | Top | 78-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
01-29-22 | Winthrop +3 v. Longwood | Top | 88-92 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
01-28-22 | Bulls v. Spurs +2.5 | Top | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
01-28-22 | Akron +8.5 v. Toledo | Top | 76-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
01-27-22 | Northeastern +4.5 v. NC-Wilmington | Top | 62-67 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
01-27-22 | Drexel v. James Madison -3.5 | Top | 88-82 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
01-26-22 | Suns v. Jazz +3.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
01-26-22 | Stephen F Austin v. Seattle University -2.5 | Top | 62-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
01-26-22 | Marquette v. Seton Hall -5 | Top | 73-63 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
01-25-22 | Auburn v. Missouri +13.5 | Top | 55-54 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
01-25-22 | Clippers v. Wizards -4 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
01-24-22 | Alabama State v. Texas Southern -11 | Top | 66-73 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
01-24-22 | Hartford v. Binghamton +3 | Top | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
01-23-22 | Bills +2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -113 | 99 h 24 m | Show |
01-23-22 | Massachusetts v. St. Louis -9 | Top | 59-90 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
01-22-22 | North Dakota v. UMKC -10 | Top | 74-79 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
01-22-22 | Stetson v. North Alabama -3 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
01-22-22 | College of Charleston v. James Madison -2 | Top | 94-95 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
01-21-22 | Fresno State v. Nevada -1.5 | Top | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
01-21-22 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -3.5 | Top | 122-118 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
01-20-22 | North Dakota v. Oral Roberts -20.5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
01-20-22 | Georgetown +11 v. Providence | Top | 75-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
01-19-22 | Marquette v. Villanova -12 | Top | 57-54 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
01-19-22 | Nets +2 v. Wizards | Top | 119-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
01-19-22 | Lehigh v. Navy -12.5 | Top | 69-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
01-19-22 | North Carolina A&T v. North Carolina-Asheville -3.5 | Top | 73-71 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
01-18-22 | South Florida v. Houston -18.5 | Top | 55-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
01-18-22 | Butler v. Connecticut -12.5 | Top | 59-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
01-18-22 | Lipscomb v. Eastern Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 72-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
01-17-22 | Suns v. Spurs +4.5 | Top | 121-107 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
01-17-22 | Denver v. UMKC -7.5 | Top | 63-55 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
01-17-22 | Portland +10.5 v. Loyola Marymount | Top | 58-70 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
01-16-22 | Jazz -4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
01-16-22 | 49ers v. Cowboys -2.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -125 | 43 h 21 m | Show |
01-16-22 | Georgetown v. St. John's -10.5 | Top | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
01-15-22 | Bulls v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
01-15-22 | Texas -2 v. Iowa State | Top | 70-79 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
01-14-22 | Davidson v. Richmond | Top | 87-84 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
01-14-22 | Magic +11 v. Hornets | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |