Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-18-18 | Eagles +9.5 v. Saints | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -120 | 90 h 45 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (4:25 ET): Needless to say, less than one year removed from winning the Super Bowl, the Eagles did not bank on being in this position. That position being more than a touchdown underdog to an opponent. Now this is opponent is New Orleans, who is at home and historically lethal in the Mercedes Benz Superdome. The Saints also come into this one on an eight-game SU and ATS win streak. Since losing Week 1 (here at home) to Tampa Bay, they've outscored opponents by almost two touchdowns per game. Most, including myself, have them as the top team in the league right now. In their last home game, Drew Brees and company beat the Rams (pretty handily) to take over that honor. Last week, they obliterated Cincinnati on the road, 51-14. So the Eagles, only 4-5 SU and off a primetime loss to Dallas, definitely are "up against it" a bit here. Even though the NFC East is weak overall, with Washington currently 6-3, Philly's season is very much hanging in the balance here (although they still play the Redskins twice). I do have to say that this spread did require a bit of a double take. And in handicapping the matchup, I uncovered a key trend that only confirmed my belief that the road dog is the correct play here. The last five times the previous year's Super Bowl winner was a dog of seven or more in a game (and this is obviously a rare spot), that team has covered the spread four times. I think the Eagles are being undervalued here. You have to remember that on their run to the SB last season, they were an underdog in every playoff game. Last week's outright loss to Dallas dropped the Eagles to 2-8 ATS the L10 times they have been favored (w/ 5 outright losses). But as an underdog, they have covered six straight times (this excludes Wk 17 LY when they rested starters). They've been favored in every game this year with one exception, Week 1 vs. Atlanta (a game they won 18-12). This team still has Carson Wentz at QB, a relatively strong defense (20.3 PPG allowed) and all five losses have been by seven points or less. Another good trend here is that teams off a SU loss by 14+ pts on Sunday or Monday Night Football this year have gone 8-2 ATS the following week. Yes, I'll jump in front of the New Orleans' train. Take the points. 10* Philadelphia |
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11-18-18 | Panthers v. Lions +4 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 115 h 11 m | Show |
10* Detroit (1:00 ET): Both of these teams would just as soon burn the Week 10 film as Carolina got hammered 52-21 in Pittsburgh Thursday night while the Lions lost in Chicago, 34-22. For the Lions that final score was actually a bit misleading considering they were down 26-0 midway through the second quarter. Either way, it was still a third straight double digit loss for Matt Patricia's team, whose season is basically on the brink this week as the team is 3-6 SU overall. Even after losing by 31, the Panthers are still in okay shape at 6-3 SU, but I've had my doubts about just how good this team is. On the road, they're now just 1-3 SU/ATS and averaging 20.7 PPG. That one win was a come from behind effort in Philadelphia, a game where they trailed 17-0 in the 4Q. It wasn't the Carolina offense that had the problem in Pittsburgh, though their 21 pts scored were the lowest in a game since the last time they played on the road. In fact, they haven't scored more than 24 all season on the road. Rather, it was the defense getting torched for 52 points and 457 total yards. Excluding the Steelers running out the clock to end the 1st half, they scored on each of their first seven drives. Now, whether or not the Detroit offense can have a big day remains to be seen. But one thing that would certainly help the Lions here is protecting the football. Twice in the last three weeks, they've finished w/ a -3 TO ratio. Keep in mind that the Lions have been a home dog to only one other team all season. That would be New England back in Week 3, a Sunday night game where they pulled a massive 26-10 upset as seven-point chalk. Few saw that one coming. The Lions' last two road games have been on the road. The last time they were at home, I actually played against them and they lost 28-14 to Seattle. But that game saw them turn the ball over TWICE in the end zone. Again, protecting the football is paramount here (as it is for any NFL game). Carolina has won a lot of close games the L2 seasons and has only outscored their opponents by seven points for the year. Take the points. 10* Detroit. |
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11-18-18 | Steelers v. Jaguars +7 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 115 h 11 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): What is heaven's name has gone wrong with the Jaguars? After Week 2, this team was perceived as a legit threat to win the AFC as they'd just avenged LY's Championship Game loss to New England, beating the Patriots pretty handily, 31-20. But as you know, Week 2 was a LONG time ago. Since then, the Jags have lost six of seven, including five straight. Their only win during that time was against the lowly Jets. Last week saw them get knocked off by the division rival Colts, 29-26, a game where the once-proud defense was torched for all 29 pts in the first half. The task gets no tougher this week as the Jags play Pittsburgh. But the game is at home and the number is inflated. I'm going to take a "flier" on the dog here as they look to salvage their season. Salvaging the season is still a possibility for Jacksonville, mind you. Their next two games are: at Buffalo and a rematch w/ Indy at home. So if they were to win here, they could easily be back at .500 after 12 games. I have no idea what went wrong w/ the defense in the 1H last week, though it isn't exactly refreshing to hear the personnel refer to the mistakes as "brain farts". What I do know is they shut the Colts out in the 2H. Maybe this defense isn't what it was a year ago, but it's a prideful bunch and I think they'll bounce back. Of course, we also need the offense to get back on track as well with QB Blake Bortles being the biggest offender. The good news is RB Leonard Fournette is back in the lineup and prior to last week's loss, the team was 2-0 SU w/ him on the field and 1-5 SU without. For Pittsburgh, this is obviously a double revenge game. They lost twice to the Jaguars last year, including at home in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. If you recall, I had a sizable play on Jacksonville in that playoff meeting. Pittsburgh is definitely hot right now and with the double revenge angle, figures to be a popular side this week. They've won and covered five straight games following a 1-2-1 SU start. But, as noted earlier, this line is inflated. The Steelers have not won a road game this year by more than seven points and under HC Tomlin they are just 7-18 ATS all-time as a road favorite of six or more points. Take the points here with a desperate dog. 8* Jacksonville |
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11-18-18 | Wake Forest v. Valparaiso +1.5 | Top | 69-63 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
8* Valparaiso (10:30 AM ET): The Myrtle Beach Invitational wraps up Sunday. This is a consolation game as both Wake and Valpo lost their first game. The team that Valpo lost to - Western Kentucky - will be playing in the Championship Game later tonight. There was not shame in losing to the Hilltoppers considering Valpo was a seven-point dog. WKU would also go on to upset West Virginia on Friday. Wake Forest lost its first game to a St. Joe's team that would go on to get blown out by UCF. The Demon Deacons did gain a measure of redemption Friday by beating CS-Fullerton in spite of shooting 33.9% for the game. Valpo beat Monmouth 64-53 as a six-point favorite. Wake lost 20 games last season, the fourth under HC Danny Manning. The season started well enough w/ a 90-pt effort over North Carolina A&T, but even then they only won by 12 as 21.5-pt favorites. Then came the St. Joe's loss where they fell victim to 16 three-pointers. Given that kind of shooting, the Demon Deacons had little chance and lost by 20. They did bounce back w/ a 66-59 win over CS-Fullerton. But even then, they needed to score the game's final seven points. To win here, they'll either need to shoot better than they did vs. CS-Fullerton or defend better than they did vs. St. Joes. Maybe both. Regardless, my numbers indicate the wrong team is favored this morning. Valpo was outshot badly by Western Kentucky in the first game here, but as I said earlier, that's no longer looking like a bad loss. They bounced back w/ a nice shooting night against Monmouth, also holding the Hawks to just 53 points. Over three games, the Crusaders are shooting 53%. At the same time, they're allowing just 39.7% shooting. Again, in my opinion, they're the better team here and I'll take the points. 8* Valparaiso |
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11-17-18 | Arizona State v. Oregon -3.5 | Top | 29-31 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
8* Oregon (10:30 ET): The Ducks are off a bad loss last week as they lost to Utah. It's not like a seven-point loss in Salt Lake City is bad on face value. But when you consider the Utes were w/o their starting QB AND RB, then it's pretty shocking Oregon came up short. It was the third loss in four games for UO, although all three losses took place away from Eugene. This is the final game of the year at Autzen and the home team should be highly motivated. Last year, their 10-game win streak over Arizona State got snapped when the Sun Devils kicked a last second field goal. So that's even more motivation. The Ducks are 11-2 SU at home the L2 years, have a NFL QB and this is a really good price on them. Lay the short number. No one is laughing at the Herm Edwards hire anymore. He has Arizona State in position to win the Pac 12 South! If the Sun Devils win out, which would require victories here and in the Territorial Cup (at Arizona), they are going to Los Angeles. All four losses this year have come by exactly a touchdown. But three of six wins have also come by a field goal. So that's a lot of close games. Last week, they outlasted UCLA 31-28 as 12.5-pt chalk. It was only the second Pac 12 game where ASU was favored, so clearly they've beaten expectations. But the road has been a bit of a challenge for them. They're 1-3 SU away from Tempe w/ the only win coming by a field goal over USC. They've lost at San Diego State, Washington and Colorado. This may be the toughest trip of the season. Making this game even more difficult than it needed to be for Arizona State is the fact that Merlin Robertson will miss the 1st half due to an ejection for targeting last week. That makes stopping Justin Herbert and the rest of the Oregon offense even more daunting. I'd also worry about this Sun Devils offense being able to keep pace. Sure, they average 29.9 PPG for the year. But that number comes slightly down on the road and Oregon also averages 43.0 PPG at home. The ASU defense has allowed a 70% completion percentage to four of their last five opponents. Herbert has thrown only one interception his L6 games. One final key trend worth mentioning is that Arizona State is 1-6 ATS when off B2B wins the L3 seasons. They've overachieved already this season, but won't here. 8* Oregon |
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11-17-18 | Blues +1.5 v. Sharks | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -150 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
8* Puck Line St. Louis (10:35 ET): Please note that this is a Puck Line play only where I am backing St. Louis at +1.5. The Blues played last night and they're certainly hoping that what happens in Vegas does NOT have to stay in Vegas as they beat the Golden Knights 4-1. It was a dominant performance w/ a three-goal second period. It was their third time scoring 4 goals in the last five games and their only losses during that stretch both came by one goal each. Speaking of dominant performances, the Blues shutout the Sharks 4-0 back on November 9th. The Sharks are looking to rebound from a 5-3 loss to Toronto that occurred here at home Thursday. There's no shame in losing to a team as good as the Maple Leafs, but San Jose has to feel like they let one slip away given they scored three times in the 1st period and had 45 shots on goal for the game. One positive sign for the Sharks tonight is that they're 4-0 SU this season when off a loss by two or more goals. But I don't see them winning by multiple goals tonight. In fact, five of San Jose's last six wins have been by exactly one goal. Three of their last five losses have also been by one goal. I'll take either result here (or another Blues' blowout, obviously!). It would be easy to look at this matchup simply through the prism of the division standings. San Jose is in first place in the Pacific while St. Louis resides in the basement of the Central. However, the six point difference between the teams is a result of the Sharks having played three more games and they have three more wins. Also, I should point out that despite where they are in the standings, the Blues actually have the better season goal differential as they've outscored opponents while the Sharks have allowed the same exact number of goals (64) that they have scored. Since Jake Allen was in goal last night, that probably means Chad Johnson will start tonight and he was the one who authored the 4-0 shutout in the last meeting. Take the +1.5. 8* Puck Line St. Louis (+1.5) |
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11-17-18 | 76ers v. Hornets -2.5 | Top | 122-119 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): These teams squared off last Friday in Philly. Despite falling behind by as many as 21 pts in the 1st half, the Hornets covered easily - and probably should have won the game outright. They led by five w/ just over a minute to go in regulation, but let the Sixers force OT. The final score was 133-132, but at least Charlotte was +6.5. The Hornets have had terrible luck in close games the L3 seasons and five of their seven losses this season have come by four points or fewer. But tonight, they'll be looking to rebound from a truly embarrassing defeat, one that saw them go down by 24 to an undermanned Cleveland team that they had just blown out the previous week. It was just Cleveland's second win of the season. Charlotte is favored for this rematch and for good reason. They've had three days off to sit and stew about what happened in Cleveland. They should be highly motivated. Meanwhile, the Sixers will have had very little time to recoup from last night's hard fought 113-107 win over the Jazz. That was the home debut for the newly acquired Jimmy Butler, so there was a lot of emotion going into that game. Butler scored 28 pts to lead the team, but the real key was Utah shooting only 18.2% from behind the three-point arc (4 of 22). The Jazz also missed 16 of 37 free throw attempts in a six-point game. So the Sixers were both somewhat lucky to cover and win. This is a tough back to back as it's also Philly's third game in four nights and sixth in nine nights. It'll also be the fourth road game in the last week for a Sixers team that is just 2-7 SU away from home (8-0 SU at home). The last time they took their act on the road, they lost SU as a favorite to Orlando. They're giving up nearly 116 PPG on the road this season. Charlotte is playing at home for the 1st time in 11 days and should be very motivated off a bad loss and playing w/ revenge. Note Charlotte has lost twice to Philly this season w/ the two losses coming by a total of three points. They've lost to them eight times in a row. If they can't break through tonight, then I don't know when they will as the spot is more than ideal. The Sixers are 0-4 SU/ATS in the second game of a back to back this year, all those games taking place on the road, and the four losses have come by an average of nearly 16 PPG. 10* Charlotte |
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11-17-18 | Montana State v. UC-Santa Barbara -9 | Top | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
10* Cal Santa Barbara (5:00 ET): The Gauchos have already treated me well this season. I took them in the season opener when they went to Wyoming and came away w/ an outright 76-66 victory as 6.5-pt dogs. Now, we know Wyoming isn't very good as we faded them again last night and came away w/ another outright winner, this time on Niagara getting 6.5 points. UCSB losing its second game, 82-63 at North Dakota State, has created a ton of value on this pick. Note the Gauchos were w/o Max Heidegger in that game as he was out w/ a concussion. He is expected back today as the team plays its second home game. They successfully rebounded from that loss to North Dakota State by thrashing D-III Cal Lutheran 88-32 on Tuesday. Lay the points here. Montana State is a team we tried fading Wednesday, but they surprised me w/ a strong effort in covering at Colorado State. They still lost, mind you, 81-77 as 12.5-pt chalk. The Bobcats had not fared well at all in their first two games (more on that in a second), but were able to keep pace in Ft. Collins due to outshooting CSU from behind the three-point arc. Montana State made a season-best 14 three-pointers in that game while CSU went just 6 of 30 from behin the arc. I think I should reiterate the fact that the Bobcats first two games of the season saw them lose by 30 to Utah State (at home) and then by 45 at Indiana. This isn't a good team. Their one win came against non-board team Presentation College. These teams played last year w/ UCSB winning in a rout, 91-69. That game was Bozeman (on the road) and the Gauchos were actually slight dogs going in. I expect a somewhat similar result here today. The likely return of Heidegger, an All-Big West selection last year, will have the Gauchos going 12 deep for this game. This is an underrated team by the oddsmakers right now, so keep an eye on them moving forward. Montana State is playing its second road game in four days and I don't believe they're capable of playing as well as they did Wednesday at Colorado State (who was a little short-handed). Lay the points. 10* Cal Santa Barbara |
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11-17-18 | Air Force +2.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 27-35 | Loss | -105 | 94 h 12 m | Show |
10* Air Force (4:00 ET): I think there are a lot of people (myself included) that think proud Wyoming alum Josh Allen is going to be a bust in the NFL (he was a 1st rd draft choice of the Bills). But don't tell that to the alma mater, who misses its old QB dearly. Coming into the season, I thought Wyoming was as likely to regress (in terms of record) as any team in the entire country. They only went 8-5 SU w/ Allen at the helm last year and that came w/ a +24 turnover margin (easily tops in the country). Points off turnovers accounted for roughly 40% of all Cowboys' scoring last year. The team was actually outgained by 52 YPG in MWC play. So what I'm saying is that it was a minor miracle that team won eight games even w/ Allen. Without him, they have indeed nosedived down to 4-6 SU. I don't think they should be favored here and will fade them instead. When Wyoming's schedule came out, it was known that five opponents would be looking for revenge against them. They've played three of the five so far and only Colorado State (who has fallen even harder that the Cowboys have) failed to exact that revenge. Both Hawaii and Utah State did and now it's Air Force's turn. The Flyboys lost to the Pokes last year in Colorado Springs, 28-14. despite being three-point home favorites and having a +149 edge in total yards. Now its time for payback. Both of these teams need to win out in order to become bowl eligible, but obviously only one can. I'll side w/ the 4-6 SU team that has both outscored and outgained opponents this season as opposed to the one that's done neither. Wyoming has won B2B weeks, but those wins were against two of the MWC's weaker teams: Colorado State and San Jose State. The offense in Laramie is downright putrid as it averages only 18.2 PPG. The defense is still missing standout Youhanna Ghaifan, a key cog in the defensive line. His absence is especially problematic when facing an AFA offense that goes for 265 yards rushing per game and just went for a season-high 478 in a 42-24 win over New Mexico last week. The Pokes do have the benefit of being off a bye, but I just don't see their offense being able to score enough to get the job done. Air Force is better than its record as four of its six losses have been by six points or less. I expect them to win a relatively close game Saturday afternoon, but take the points anyway. 10* Air Force |
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11-17-18 | Bowling Green v. Akron -7 | Top | 21-6 | Loss | -100 | 94 h 42 m | Show |
10* Akron (3:30 ET): On their way to an eventual MAC Title Game appearance, the Zips ended an eight-game SU/ATS losing streak to Bowling Green last season. They beat them 34-23 as 2-pt road chalk, which was also their 1st win @ BG since '05. Given the current state of the Bowling Green program, you would think that Akron is perhaps about to start their own win streak in this MAC East rivalry. BG is just dreadful, having already fired HC Mike Jinks midseason. They've got zero to play for moving forward as their record is 2-8 SU. I do think it helps Akron that BG won last week (24-13 @ Centgral Michigan), meaning the Falcons now won't go winless in conference play. Avoiding that distinction was the only real thing they had left to play for. I believe this spread should be closer to two touchdowns. Lay the points. Akron wasn't the best team in the MAC East last year, but won the division anyway thanks to pulling a couple upsets. Neither the MAC Championship nor the Boca Raton Bowl went well for them, but right now the Zips are looking at a situation where they need to win two of their final three games to get back to the postseason. Winning this game is a must as the two final regular season games are at Ohio and South Carolina and they'll be a big dog in each. Last week's game @ Eastern Michigan could not possibly have gone worse as QB Kato Nelson was out w/ an ankle injury. They turned it over four times, including three straight possessions w/ an INT, and gained less than 100 total yds. They should be eager to atone for that performance in this final home game. Thankfully, BG should more than oblige to Akron's need for victory. The Falcons remain a bottom 10 team in the country as they've been outscored by more than 17 PPG over the course of the season. I was truly shocked to see them win last week as 7.5-pt road dogs as they were down 13-0 at the half to Central Michigan (who ended up gaining only 166 yds for the game). How shocking was that defensive performance by BG? Consider that they still allow 469.2 YPG. Prior to last week, they had not beaten a single FBS team all season w/ the lone win coming at home over Eastern Kentucky where they had to rally late. Remember that this Akron team holds a win over Northwestern, who will be playing in the Big 10 Championship Game! This is - on paper - the Zips' easiest FBS game of the season. I'll keep my fingers crossed that QB Nelson returns, but even if he doesn't, this is still a play w/ the backup Ramart under center. 10* Akron |
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11-17-18 | Pittsburgh v. Wake Forest +6 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -108 | 90 h 12 m | Show |
8* Wake Forest (12:00 ET): The Demon Deacons treated me nicely last week as they rallied back from a 13-3 halftime deficit and beat #14 NC State 27-23 as 17.5-pt road dogs. Perhaps you may recall my analysis for that Thursday night matchup. A lot of it was based on the notion that NC State being called the 14th best team in the country was utter nonsense. But I've always been impressed w/ how Wake "shows up" for HC Dave Clawson. While the Demon Deacons are a little bit "down" this year, bowl eligibility is still on the table for a team that's 5-5 SU overall. This is also the final home game in Winston-Salem and it comes w/ two extra days to prepare. With the regular season finale being at Duke, I think a motivated Demon Deacons squad comes up big here. Take the points. Pitt also has something to play for, that being the ACC Coastal, a race for which they are in the driver's seat. A win here would send them to Charlotte to face Clemson for the Conference Championship. So the Panthers shouldn't be lacking for motivation themselves. But they are road favorites for just the second time all year. The first time, I played against them and they lost outright to a North Carolina team that hasn't beaten anybody else all season. Overall, the Panthers are just 1-3 SU on the road this season. After a 1-3 overall start to the season, they've kind of come from nowhere to win four of their last five, the only loss coming at Notre Dame. But of note is the fact they've been favored only once in those L5 games, that coming in LW's 52-22 demolition of Va Tech. Believe it or not, despite being in the same conference, these teams have NEVER met. So Winston-Salem is foreign territory for the favorites. I think the sense of urgency is far greater for the home dog, which is seeking to go bowling for a third straight year, something that has only happened ONE time in the history of the program! Pitt doesn't even need a win here to clinch the division; they can have Virginia lose at Ga Tech as well. Or just beat struggling Miami next week. The big question here surrounds Wake Forest's ability to stop a Pitt run game that has gone for 484+ yds twice in the last three weeks. I think they can as this Demon Deacons' stop unit has improved ever since a midseason change at defensive coordinator. Last week, they allowed only 47 yds rushing to NC State. To me, the biggest mismatch in this game is Wake Forest's receivers going against a Pitt pass defense that is shaky at best. The Panthers' dream of being the 6th difference school to represent the ACC Coastal in the Conf Champ Game may have to be put on hold for another week. 8* Wake Forest |
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11-16-18 | Memphis v. SMU +7.5 | Top | 28-18 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 20 m | Show |
8* SMU (9:00 ET) - SMU was a tremendous winner for me two weeks ago. As 14-point underdogs, they WON by two touchdowns, beating a red-hot Houston team 45-31. At the time, the Mustangs were just 3-5 SU overall, but I wrote that they were improving and am not about to back off that assessment. Last Saturday's win wasn't nearly as impressive as they failed to cover against UConn despite scoring 62 points. But then again, it was the 1st time all year that the Ponies were favored to beat a FBS opponent. This week, they're back in their more customary role of underdog and looking to gain a "leg up" in what is currently a three-way tie atop the West Division of the American Conference. I like them plus the points and also give them an excellent shot at pulling another outright upset. Memphis is 3-3 SU in conference play and thus NOT one of the three teams atop the division (Tulane and Houston are). The Tigers still have a chance to win the West, but a ton of things would have to go their way. Many consider them to be the best team in the division, though I would still give a slight nod to Houston (who Memphis hosts next Friday). The Tigers should have probably beaten undefeated UCF earlier in the year, but instead ended up blowing a double-digit lead in the Liberty Bowl. It's one of two 1-pt losses they've taken this year. Memphis did win the division LY (lost to UCF in 2 OT's in the Conf Champ Game) and comes into this week having scored 100 pts the L2 wks. But SMU has done the same, making this too many points to lay for the Tigers. I think homefield matters a lot here. Memphis is just 1-3 SU on the road w/ the lone victory coming two weeks ago against East Carolina (who has zero conference wins), but that was a close game until the very end. Earlier in the year, the Tigers dropped a game (as two-touchdown chalk) at Tulane. I think the biggest reason for this large spread is that Memphis has beaten SMU four straight times, by an average of 41 PPG! But this SMU team is a lot better than years' past. Not only are they playing for a division crown here, but they still need one more win for bowl eligibility. Their offense is averaging 38.5 PPG since junior QB Ben Hicks became the permanent starter. That makes this number extremely attractive at home. 8* SMU |
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11-16-18 | Niagara +6.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 72-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
8* Niagara (9:00 ET): Despite the reputation of having a strong homecourt advantage (due to the hight altitude in Laramie), I had no problem fading Wyoming in their season opener. They lost - outright - as six-point favorites to UC Santa Barbara, 76-66. The Cowboys followed that up w/ another loss, at Oregon State, in their next game. They finally won for the first time on Wednesday, 86-78 over Grambling, but did not cover as 12-pt chalk. So their ATS record is now 0-3 as they return home to face Niagara. While the Purple Eagles may not be as formidable as UCSB, they can still cover the spread here, if not pull the outright upset. They've already pulled one upset, 80-72 over St. Bonaventure, though that one was at home. Take the points. The follow up to that upset wasn't as good for Niagara as they went down 75-62 at the hands of Loyola IL. But they still covered that game as 16.5-pt dogs. Remember that Loyola-IL was a Final Four team last March! Amazingly, the Purple Eagles stayed inside the number despite shooting less than 30% for the game! I have to imagine they'll be more productive on the offensive end tonight and a huge key to this game could be free throw shooting. Niagara shot 17 of 19 from the FT line in their last game and is 48th in FTA rate. Wyoming is 288th in opponents FTA rate. I also look for the underdog to have the rebounding edge in this battle. They are 32nd in the country so far, pulling down 38.9 boards per game. Wyoming is allowing 39.1 rpg, which ranks 303rd nationally. I just don't think this Wyoming team is very good this year. In my analysis for Opening Night against UCSB, I cited the fact the Pokes lost four of their top five scorers from a year ago and they project as a terrible defensive team also. Right now, the team simply can't shoot. Through the first three games, they are at just 40% overall from the field, including a dreadful 27.6% from behind the arc. That's trouble for a team that was 317th in the country in points allowed last season. So far, all three Wyoming opponents have scored at least 76 points. Giving up that many points makes it hard to cover as a favorite and it's right in line w/ what they gave up last year as well (78.7 PPG allowed). 8* Niagara |
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11-16-18 | Miami-OH v. North Dakota State +2.5 | Top | 89-78 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
8* North Dakota State (2:00 ET): I do believe that the wrong team may be favored here in a 1st round matchup of the Bahamas Showcase. Miami OH might be off a 91-42 win, but it was against an overmatched opponent (Midway) w/ extreme shooting percentages. We won't be seeing the RedHawks shoot 56% again in this game nor will we see the hold the opposition to just 26%. Note that in the RedHawks' first game, they lost 90-68 at Butler with the shooting percentages basically flipped. Here they face a North Dakota State team off an impressive 82-63 win over Cal Santa Barbara. They held the Gauchos to just 37% shooting. That was a nice bounce back after losing out in Las Cruces (New Mex St) in the season opener. The Bison really struggled to shoot the ball in that first game, but were much better offensively on Sunday. After taking a 15-13 lead midway through the first half, they would never trail again. An interesting bit of handicapping here - Miami has not played in a true bracketed regular season tournament in a decade. So this format may not favor them. They are just 2-9 ATS their L11 neutral site games and don't have a ton of depth. Like I said at the outset, I think the Bison are the better team here, so I'll take the points. 8* North Dakota State |
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11-15-18 | Florida Atlantic v. North Texas -3 | Top | 38-41 | Push | 0 | 77 h 46 m | Show |
10* North Texas (9:30 ET): Last year, these two teams played in the C-USA Title Game w/ a red-hot FAU prevailing at home 41-17 as 11-pt chalk. Getting the Title Game at home, the Owls jumped out to a 34-0 lead after 33 minutes and cruised from there. It was actually their second victory of the year over the Mean Green as they'd won 69-31 in the regular season, also in Boca Raton. This year, North Texas gets the game in Denton w/ some good old fashioned double revenge on its mind. Neither team will be making it to this year's C-USA Title Game, so the double revenge angle is pretty key in handicapping this matchup. So too is the homefield advantage as UNT is 4-1 SU in Apogee Stadium, outscoring teams by 22 PPG. I'm laying the short number here. Florida Atlantic was one of the darlings of College Football last season as Lane Kiffin came in and let a tremendous turnaround. His predecessor (Charlie Partridge) had delivered three seasons of just three wins each, but left Kiffin w/ the most experienced team in the country. Kiffin took full advantage, leading the Owls to an 11-win season, including a 50-3 rout of Akron in the Boca Raton Bowl. The Owls swept the C-USA schedule, winning all nine games by a total of 201 points. Still, there were obvious signs that this season would not go as well and those were confirmed early on as FAU lost its first game 63-14 to Oklahoma. After going 10-3-1 ATS last season, the Owls are just 3-7 at the betting window so far this season. Some of the regression boils down to being a less experienced team (not having QB Jason Driskell hurt), the rest was probably just inevitable. The Owls are just 3-3 in C-USA this year and playing on the road has been a major problem for them both in and out of league play. They are 1-4 SU/ATS outside of Boca Raton w/ three of those losses coming by at least 20 points. The defense is allowing 37.8 PPG on the road and the number would look even worse were it not for winning the "Shula Bowl" against rival FIU two weeks ago, 49-14. Perhaps North Texas got caught looking ahead to this game as they were upset Saturday by Old Dominion, blowing a 28-point lead (were favored by 15.5). The Mean Green were looking quite good this year before losing two of the last three games. Their three losses have been by a total of 13 points. All 10 UNT games have stayed Under this year, thanks to a defense that allows only 20.3 PPG (18.4 at home). Superior defense, homefield advantage and a case of double revenge have me on the home fave here. 10* North Texas |
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11-15-18 | Hawks v. Nuggets -12 | Top | 93-138 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
8* Denver (9:05 ET): After looking like one of the best teams in the league through its first 10 games, Denver has shockingly dropped four in a row, all as favorites. Most shocking of all is that the last three losses all came at home where the typically enjoy a tremendous advantage. Tonight should signal the turnaround that they've been looking for, however, as lowly Atlanta pays a visit. The Hawks have lost 9 of 10 and are playing their third road game in five nights. Most would consider them to be the worst team in the league and I cannot disagree. Lay the points. Tuesday marked the Nuggets' first double digit loss of the season as they fell to Houston, 109-99. That was also only the second time getting held below 100 pts. Two of their previous three losses had come by just two points. Poor defense has cost them the L2 games as they allowed Milwaukee and Houston to shoot 57.1% and 54.9%. Fortunately, the Hawks are not either Milwaukee or Houston and should be a much easier team to defend. Atlanta is just 28th in offensive efficiency and has shot better than 50% from the floor in just two games all season, one of them against Cleveland. The Hawks also could be a little short-handed here w/ three players listed as questionable for various reasons. With a weak overall roster, that amount of absence can be devastating. Despite the losing skid, I still believe in this Nuggets team. Before losing to Houston two nights ago, the team was 6-2 ATS when on a losing streak of at least three games (over the L3 seasons). Atlanta is just 1-7 SU on the road, giving up over 118 PPG. After actually competing against both the Lakers and Warriors (who were short-handed themselves) in the last four days, the Hawks may very well run out of gas in the thin air tonight. 8* Denver |
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11-15-18 | Fresno State +11.5 v. TCU | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
10* Fresno State (9:00 ET): Earlier in the week, I took exception w/ LSU being included in the Top 25. So I faded them and came away w/ an ATS win on Memphis. I feel even more strongly against TCU's placement in the Top 25. The Horned Frogs will come into tonight's game ranked #21 in the country, but I do not have them in my own personal top 50! So this looks like another great spot to take advantage of the pollsters and the perception they place on the betting public. I realize that TCU has a strong core group of players, but outside of their "big three" this is a relatively inexperienced team. Fresno State is only two years removed from a NCAA Tournament berth and won 21 games last season. They are absolutely capable of pulling the upset tonight in Ft. Worth. Take the points. Desmond Bane, JD Miller and Alex Robinson are going to have to carry this TCU squad early in the season because w/ PG Jaylen Fisher out, the other nine players are essentially all new faces. Throw in the fact that two of the new starters, Kouat Noi and Lat Mayen, are both out with knee injuries and depth has already become a bit of a concern for HC Jamie Dixon. The Horned Frogs are 2-0 thus far, but failed to cover against both CS-Bakersfield and Oral Roberts. The former matchup saw them win by only five despite being favored by 18. Dixon has never lost a November game since becoming the HC at TCU, but it could very well happen tonight, even though the Horned Frogs are double digit favorites. Not only is Fresno State a little underrated in my eyes, the Bulldogs are also well rested coming into tonight's game. They've only played one game and it was last Tuesday against Alaska-Anchorage, an easy 91-63 win. New Mexico State transfer Braxton Higgins led the way w/ 23 points. I have to say that I'm a little shocked that the media picked this team to finish 5th in the Mt West given that FSU has won 20+ games each of the last three seasons as well as four of the last five. This rested underdog is also playing w/ a bit of revenge as they lost to TCU in the 2017 NIT, 66-59, but covered as nine-point dogs. Bottom line is that I have this game being way closer than the oddsmakers do. 10* Fresno State |
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11-15-18 | Packers v. Seahawks -2.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
8* Seattle (8:20 ET): This could prove to be an incredibly important game for two teams on the fringes of playoff contention. Seattle has played better than its 4-5 SU record indicates. They've actually outscored teams by 27 points. The issue is they've gone only 1-4 SU in games decided by seven points or less. The other loss was by eight to a very talented Chargers team, here in the last home game. Last week, for a second time this year, they lost to the mighty Rams in a close affair despite putting up 31 points. While I feel the Seahawks may very well be "underrated," I'm not so sure I can say the same for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. In fact, I think quite the opposite. Their four wins feature two miracle come from behind efforts (against Chicago & San Fran), both at home. Their other two wins are against Buffalo & Miami, two terrible teams. I think you can tell which way I'm leaning here. Seattle is deserving of far more respect here at home, especially considering Green Bay's 0-4 SU road record. Lay the short number. With five home games left, Seattle is definitely still capable of making some noise. They're only 1-2 SU at home so far, but the two losses were to the Rams & Chargers, two of the league's best. It seems like eons ago, but their only home win this year came in Week 3 against Dallas. Despite this, the Seahawks remain a team to be feared at Century Link Field where they've won 27 of their last 37 games, particularly in primetime. Another reason to like them is they simply do not lose three games in a row very often. The last time it happened was 2011, the year before Russell Wilson arrived. Since then, they've gone 6-0 SU/ATS when off B2B losses, including that home win over Dallas back in Wk 3. Seattle has the league's top ranked rushing attack at 152.2 YPG. Expect them to exploit a Packers' run defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league, giving up 4.5 yards per carry. That YPC average is what's huge because no team runs the ball more than Seattle. Last week against Miami, even though they won 31-12, Green Bay surrendered 131 yds on just 23 carries (Dolphins had to abandon the run when they fell behind). Over the last four weeks, they've given up 141.5 yards per game on the ground. Again, the Pack have not won a road game this year. They've allowed 30.5 PPG in the four losses. West Coast teams usually have an edge facing non-West Coast teams in primetime games (look up Circadian Advantage). 8* Seattle |
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11-14-18 | Montana State v. Colorado State -11.5 | Top | 77-81 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* Colorado State (9:00 ET): Colorado State has had to start the year short-handed thanks to redshirting and a suspension. But it's hardly mattered as they easily disposed of two non-board teams (Colorado Christian and Ark-Pine Bluff) by an average of nearly 30 PPG. The Rams have been able to sustain the personnel losses to the fact they're a deep team this year w/ multiple freshman already contributing. First year HC Niko Medved is doing a good job w/ this team and they should have very little difficulty dominating a terrible Montana State team Wednesday night. Lay the points. Montana State won for the 1st time on Sunday, beating a school named "Presentation College," (a NAIA school). But before that, the Bobcats had been absolutely annihilated in their first two games, losing 101-71 to Utah State and 80-35 at Indiana. I don't think tonight's game will go a whole lot better for them. Against Indiana, which was a road game, the Bobcats shot a dismal 25.5% from the field, which is one of the lowest percentages you'll see all season. I think the fact we're getting this team off a rare win is helpful. Not only is the spread not as high as it should be, but the players themselves might now be a bit overconfident. When it comes to depth, this matchup is a no-contest. Six different players are averaging at least 12 PPG for Colorado State while two players account for 44% of total scoring for Montana State. If the Rams can shut down either MSU standout, Keljin Blevins or Tyler Hall, then they'll have no problem winning this game in a romp. Turnovers should also be key here as the Bobcats have been giving away possessions quite regularly so far. They had 25 turnovers against Indiana, for example. In two games, CSU has turned it over just 15 times. Montana State is a program w/ eight straight losing seasons and they simply are overmatched again tonight. 10* Colorado State |
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11-14-18 | Heat v. Nets +2 | Top | 120-107 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): I have these teams rated fairly even, so it looks like the wrong one is favored when you take into account where the game is being played. Miami is hardly a bunch of "world beaters" (lost three in a row & six of eight), so they really shouldn't be road favorites against anybody right now, save for the dregs of the league. Granted, the Nets have spent several seasons being counted among the dregs, but they appear to be much improved for 2018-19. They haven't played a ton of home games so far, but have managed to start the season at a respectable 6-8 SU. Take the points. The Nets were 6-6 SU before dropping their last two games, both of which were on the road and one was at Golden State. Monday night saw them lose 120-113 in Minnesota where the story was a scary looking injury to Caris LeVert. Thankfully, it appears as if the injury is not as serious as initially believed and LeVert can still return later this season. I suspect the injury has a lot to do w/ the Nets being underdogs here. LeVert was their leading scorer (18.4 PPG), so him being out definitely hurts. But I think there's enough remaining talent on hand to compete and certainly win this game. Miami's defense hasn't been good of late w/ them allowing an average of 114 pts over the L8 games. The Heat have won 11 of the previous 15 meetings w/ the Nets. But these are two franchises trending in opposite directions right now. Brooklyn took three of the four meetings last season. Miami is a bit of a mess having turned the ball over 15+ times in 10 of their 13 games. They were also called for 30 fouls in Monday's 124-114 loss to Philadelphia. Something else to note is that Miami's last three losses all came at home. Their two road wins this year have been by a total of six points w/ one coming by a single point at sorry Washington. They too are missing personnel and it's pretty clear to me that they're an overvalued team in the marketplace. 10* Brooklyn |
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11-14-18 | Buffalo v. Ohio -1.5 | Top | 17-52 | Win | 100 | 50 h 22 m | Show |
10* Ohio (7:00 ET): This is a big revenge game for Ohio, who lost last year in Buffalo as six-point favorites, 31-24. It was an absolutely horrendous spot for Frank Solich's Bobcats as they'd just been upset the week prior, at Akron, basically costing them a shot at the MAC Title Game. The situation is alarmingly similar Wednesday w/ Ohio having been upset by rival Miami last week, a result that severely hurt their chances of getting to this year's MAC Title Game. Had they won in Oxford, then this game basically would have been a de facto MAC East Championship. As it stands now, Ohio is now two games back in the division and would need to win out plus have Buffalo lose next week at Bowling Green (which is highly unlikely to happen). Still, there are some notable differences between this matchup and the one that took place last year. For starters, the game will be played in Athens where OU is 4-0 SU and averaging a whopping 49.2 points per game. Their average margin of victory in those four contests is 23.7 points. The home team has won eight straight times in this MAC East rivalry. The Bobcats are probably better than their overall record as three of their four losses this year have been by 4 points or less (9 pts total). While I would have loved to get them as a dog here, the bottom line is that this team is 47-13 SU its L60 home games and laying the shortest of numbers. With the division now all but wrapped up, I believe that it's UB that's more likely to overlook this week's matchup. When these teams met last year, Ohio was in the dumps and Buffalo was looking to become bowl eligible (it was the regular season finale). The two teams came out and played like you'd think, based on the respective emotions, with the Bulls taking an early 24-7 lead before holding on for the seven-point victory. The job that Lance Leipold has done here at UB is quite remarkable and I give his Bulls an excellent shot at beating Northern Illinois next month in Detroit (MAC Champ Game). But Wednesday should belong to a revenge-minded Ohio team fighting to keep its own dreams alive. Remember, I played AGAINST Ohio last week in Miami, another game where they fell into a huge early hole (down 28-7) before fighting back and ultimately coming up short. Ohio is still the (slightly) better team here though and at home. 10* Ohio |
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11-13-18 | Memphis +11 v. LSU | Top | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
8* Memphis (7:00 ET): This looks to be too many points that LSU is laying in their first "real" test of the season. Like every other game in this package, it's also a revenge spot for the team I'm taking. Memphis, in its first year under Penny Hardaway, figures to be a lot better than they were the last couple of seasons. They won their 1st game for Hardaway, as expected, 76-61 over Tennessee Tech. But they just missed out on the cover as 16-pt favorites. I'm going to like this Tigers team more as a dog anyway, like tonight. A dreadful shooting night cost them last year against LSU. The same thing won't happen again this time. Take the points. LSU is 2-0 having topped 90 pts in both games. But there is some cause for concern, especially at the defensive end of the floor. In a 97-91 win over UNC Greensboro over the weekend, they allowed 19 made three-pointers, the most EVER by a visiting team in Baton Rouge! Overall, the Tigers are allowing 46.4% shooting from behind the arc, which will absolutely come back to bite them if that number can't come down. Memphis is a big step up in class for them after facing SE Louisiana and UNC Greensboro. LSU is a young team as well w/ freshman accounting for more than 50% of their total pts so far. Memphis has a lot of freshman they're hoping to see contribute as well. The four newcomers to the program struggled against Tenn Tech, but I see their collective numbers improving after they combined to shoot just 5 of 24 in that opening game. Hardaway luckily can rely on his seniors, one of them being Mike Parks Jr, who had to miss the opener due to a back injury. I mentioned earlier that Memphis shot the ball terribly LY vs. LSY. They were just 37.3% from the field, including 4 of 22 from three-point range, in the 71-61 loss as 2-pt home dogs. This year's squad is going to do better. I'm not sure why LSU finds itself in the Top 25 this week; I barely count them among my top 50 teams in the country. 8* Memphis |
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11-13-18 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Florida International -4.5 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
10* Florida International (7:00 ET): Wisconsin-Milwaukee has started out the season quite poorly w/ losses to Boston College (by 20) and North Dakota. Expect FIU to have little sympathy for the Panthers however, as this is a revenge spot for them. It stems from a 66-51 loss last season, which took place in Milwaukee where "our" Panthers were 13-pt underdogs. This time around, it would appear that FIU has a sizable edge, though it's not being properly accounted for by the oddsmakers. I'll gladly step in and lay the short number here as the favorite should take care of business. It may been two clearly overmatched opponents, but FIU is certainly feeling optimistic about its chances here based on a 2-0 start. They topped 100 pts against both Webber College and Johnson & Wales, two non-board teams. They averaged 113.5 PPG on 52.3% shooting in the pair of wins. Looking ahead, it may never again be quite that easy offensively, but the Panthers should definitely find ways to score in this game. 1st year HC Jeremy Ballard, the latest to be plucked from the VCU coaching tree, walked into a great situation here by inheriting four returning starters. Offense was the primary concern coming into the year, but Ballard's boys seem well on their way to blowing past LY's production when FIU ranked 317th nationally in three-point shooting. FIU is also playing some defense as it held the first two opponents to just 31.1% shooting while forcing 55 turnovers! Again, I realize the teams that they played had no chance. But the performances will definitely give this team some confidence for its first "real" test of the season. Wisc-Milwaukee is shooting a dreadful 30.3% from the floor so far and managed only 17 first half pts Saturday at home vs. North Dakota. It's a bad sign when you're leaning on a transfer who only averaged 1.4 PPG last season. Wisc-Milwaukee has just three players total back from LY's sub-.500 squad, including only one starter. They are going to struggle this year. 10* Florida International |
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11-13-18 | NC-Greensboro v. NC-Wilmington +6.5 | Top | 82-61 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
8* UNC Wilmington (7:00 ET): Yet another revenge spot! Although unlike the other two matchups in this report, this is NOT a battle of teams w/ the same nickname. It is, however, a battle of in-state rivals. UNC Greensboro won LY's meeting, 71-58, as 8.5-pt home chalk. It would appear as if the oddsmakers are giving the Spartans a bit too much "credit" out here on the road. I can only assume that has to do w/ them taking #22 LSU down to the wire in Baton Rouge over the weekend. By making 19 three-pointers in the contest, the Spartans were easily able to cover the 10-pt spread in a 97-91 loss. But I don't think they'll replicate that kind of shooting here. UNC Wilmington is 0-2 on the year, so they enter tonight as a desperate team. A 97-93 loss to Campbell was an auspicious start to the year, but be aware that game went into overtime. It was close the whole way. That game was on the road, so the Seahawks hoped for better in their home debut Friday vs. Stanford where they were drawing an opponent making a rare cross-country trip. Unfortunately, the Seahawks lost that game by 13 on a bad offensive night (shot just 35.2% overall). They did lead by as many as eight early, but actually went into the break down 14 thanks to a 7 1/2 minute stretch w/o a field goal. So you have one team, laying points on the road, coming off a historically great shooting night. Then you have a home dog coming off a poor shooting performance. I'll side with the latter here in what should be a bounce back performance. It was poor shooting that cost the Seahawks last year's meeting. But I don't see that happening again. This is more points than they were getting against Stanford, which seems crazy. This is also UNC Greensboro's third straight road game to open the year, all played within a span of a week. Good spot to fade them. 8* UNC Wilmington |
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11-12-18 | Giants +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (8:15 ET): For a second straight week, the 49ers find themselves involved in a less than stellar primetime matchup. Only this time QB Nick Mullens is more of a "selling point." Making his 1st career start last Thursday vs. Oakland, Mullens stunned just about everyone by throwing for 262 yards and three touchdowns in 34-3 win, just the Niners' second victory of the year. Statistically speaking, it was considered the finest debut by any QB in league history. That's made all the more impressive by the fact Mullens is an undrafted free agent that spent time on the practice squad. But he won't be sneaking up on anybody this time, even if "anybody" means the lowly 1-7 Giants, who are about as desperate for a win as a team could possibly be. They're off a bye and I'll take the points. No matter what Odell Beckham Jr says, the Giants aren't going to make the playoffs. But with this game and hosting Tampa Bay next week, they at least have some winnable games on the horizon. Eli Manning's days as a viable starter in this league are over, but it's inexcusable how poorly this offense has performed given the talent at the skill positions, whether you're talking Beckham or Saquon Barkley. It's not all Manning's fault mind you; the offensive line is bad as well. However, something to keep in mind here is that the Giants are a better team than the Raiders, who basically laid down last Thursday vs. the 49ers. I expect effort from the G-Men coming off the bye. Another important point when handicapping this game is the line itself. The 49ers actually closed as a slight dog vs. the Raiders for the Thurs night home game. But off the shockingly great performance from Mullens, they are now favorites this week. That's critical to note because the Niners are money-burning 1-12 ATS as chalk w/ eight outright losses. Again, the Giants have had plenty of time to prepare for Mullens, a luxury the Raiders did not have. The Giants have lost a number of one score games this season while SF had not won a game by more than three points in 2018 before facing the Raiders. The Giants are the play here. 10* NY Giants |
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11-12-18 | Louisiana-Monroe +19.5 v. Texas | Top | 55-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
8* LA Monroe (8:00 ET): This is a bad spot for Texas to be laying so many points. Shaka Smart's Longhorns just survived an overtime game against Arkansas over the weekend, winning 73-71. Despite leading at the half, the Horns were somewhat lucky to even get the game into OT considering they went almost 10 minutes in the 2H w/o making a single field goal. Close games have somewhat become the norm in Austin under HC Smart as half of their games LY were decided in the final minute or overtime. Heck, they only won their opener against Eastern Illinois by 12 points. LA Monroe is an underdog deserving of respect. The Warhawks won't win, but they'll keep it close. There was some fear in Monroe that this team might struggle to score in 2018-19 due to being fairly thin along the front line. However, so far, those fears have proven to be unfounded. Four players are averaging double figures so far, led by senior Daishon Smith (17.0 PPG), a transfer from Wichita State. And the concern about a lack of big men hasn't really mattered as the Warhawks have blocked 15 shots in two games, both wins. They've won at Jackson State (75-66) and then clobbered non-board team Millsaps 94-52 Saturday in the home opener. Against Millsaps, they shot better than 50%. Obviously, it's going to be a far greater challenge tonight. But this dog can score enough to stay within a generous number, in my opinion. These squads met last year w/ Texas winning easily, 80-59 as 17.5-pt chalk. Both teams are better this season, so I'm a bit surprised to find the spread has increased for this rematch. LA Monroe shot very poorly LY here in Austin, making only 30% of their total shot attempts, including 8 of 34 from three-point range. They also attempted only 11 free throws. It's been established that the Warhawks are much better offensively now than they were at this time a year ago. We'll see about the size issue, but the Longhorns might still be gassed from playing an OT game 48 hrs ago. Plus they struggled to score, making covering a large number like this problematic. 8* LA Monroe |
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11-12-18 | Troy State v. Pittsburgh -4.5 | Top | 75-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (7:00 ET): Pitt is off to a nice start this season w/ a pair of double digit wins over Youngstown State and VMI coming by an average of 27.5 PPG. That may not sound like a whole lot to get excited about, but remember the Panthers hit a program low point last year when they went winless in ACC play. Right now, this team is underrated (and should continue to be in the early part of the season) as I love the Jeff Capel hire as HC. Capel learned under Coach K. While he has a young team, it's one that is coming together more quickly than expected. Lay the points. Troy comes into this game 1-1. They did lead by as many as 13 at St. Louis on Saturday, but could not hold on due to poor shooting. The Trojans shot just 38.9% for the game, including a woeful 23.8% from three-point range. It was certainly a far cry from their 96-50 victory in the season opener against Fort Valley State, but then again that was to be expected given FVS is a D-II team. My view is that the Trojans are going to continue to struggle to score as Wesley Person (graduated) is going to be missed this season. Person scored more than 2,000 points and shot better than 37% from 3-pt range in his four years here. Adding to Troy's offensive problems here is the fact Pitt held its first two opponents to 26.9% and 33.9% shooting and an average of 54 points. At the same time, Pitt shot 63% from the floor against VMI (who admittedly is NOT known for its defensive prowess). Three freshman have stepped up for the Panthers, who also got senior Jared Wilson-Frame back in the lineup vs. VMI. Pitt has covered its last six non-conference games and while Troy did cover at St. Louis, they're just 1-4 ATS when off an ATS win. 10* Pittsburgh |
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11-11-18 | Bucks v. Nuggets -3 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* Denver (8:05 ET): This already figured to be a terrible spot for Milwaukee as it's their fifth game in eight days, third in four and second of a back to back. It's also the finale of a four-game trip out West and they're ending in Denver after playing in the Pacific Time Zone (LA) yday. Losing that hour is critical as going from the West Coast to Denver has long been one of the most brutal spots any NBA team can face not just b/c of the time change, but also due to the thin air here, which leads to added fatigue. Never mind the fact that the Nuggets are also now one of the NBA's best teams. So that's what Milwaukee was already up against coming into Sunday and now the situation is made worse by the fact they lost an overtime game Saturday to the Clippers. The Bucks are a big-time fade for me tonight. Milwaukee was "riding high" coming into the weekend as they were 9-2 and coming off a 134-111 thrashing of the Warriors (in Oakland) on Thursday. But the OT loss to the Clippers yesterday afternoon had to take a lot out of them. They were down 15 early, but battled back and it's a game they could have won. But they lost on a buzzer beater instead. While on the subject of winning, I should point out that's something that Milwaukee has NOT done here in Denver since 2010. Also, the Bucks are only 3-3 SU on the road this year. They've lost three of the past four road games in fact. Don't expect the Nuggets to feel the least bit sorry for the Bucks tonight. They are coming off B2B two-point losses to Memphis and Brooklyn, the latter coming right here at home. It was Denver's 1st home loss of the season. But they're still 6-1 SU here and outscoring visitors by 10 PPG. Despite losing to Brooklyn 112-110 on Friday (I had the Over!), Nuggets star Nikola Jokic had a breakout game w/ 37 points and 21 rebounds. Jokic been shockingly quiet in the team's previous four contests, so it was nice to see him assert himself. I'll call for another big game from him tonight. This may be a battle of two teams in the top five in the league right now, but one has a clear advantage. Last weekend, the Nuggets beat Utah by double digits in a similar situation. 10* Denver |
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11-11-18 | Chargers v. Raiders +11 | Top | 20-6 | Loss | -135 | 119 h 59 m | Show |
10* Oakland (4:05 ET): Ok, so I KNOW what you're already saying. "Not the Raiders!" This team has certainly become somewhat of a "dumpster fire" here in 2018 w/ HC Jon Gruden totally dismantling the roster and the results (1-7 SU record) speak for themselves. But I have tremendous faith in my own personal power rankings and they say that - getting double digits at home - the Raiders are a tremendous value this week. Consider for a moment that when they played the Chargers out in LA last month, they were "only" a six-point dog. Now they lost the game 26-10 and have certainly not played much better since. But this is a ton of points at home. Take 'em. The Chargers are a hot team right now as they've won five straight to get to 6-2 SU on the year. They are off perhaps their most impressive victory to date, 25-17 at Seattle. Before that, the list of teams that Los Angeles had beaten - Bills, 49ers, Raiders, Browns, Titans - wasn't all that impressive. Note that LW's game in Seattle hinged on an INT return for a TD early in the 4Q. But total yds were relatively even in that game (375-356 in favor of the Chargers). To me, this sets up to be the classic "trap game" for the Lightning Bolts, who have not been DD road favorites since 2009. Three of their last five victories have been by eight points or less. Oakland was humiliated on national TV in its last game, a 34-3 loss to a 49ers team starting a 3rd string QB. That was on a Thursday, so at least they've had extra time to prepare here. As bad as things look right now for the Raiders, this is a division game coming on the heels of being mocked by everyone for a terrible effort. If they can't "get up" for this game, then you might as well just move them to Vegas on Monday. Too many points, not to take here. 10* Oakland |
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11-11-18 | Falcons v. Browns +7 | Top | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): There was a brief glimmer of hope early in the season (started 2-2-1), but it's back to the "same old Browns" as Cleveland has lost four in a row coming into this week. They fired both their HC (Hue Jackson) and OC (Todd Haley) two weeks ago, but that hardly mattered as the defense couldn't stop Kansas CIty in a 37-21 loss on Sunday. But few teams have been able to stop the Chiefs' offense this season. What's interesting here is that the lookahead line for this game had Cleveland getting only two points from the oddsmakers. After another blowout loss and Atlanta crushing Washington last week, the spread has moved substantially. To the point where now I believe we're getting some nice value w/ the Browns. Take the points. The Falcons have fought their way back to 4-4 SU, winning three in a row. I don't think there's any denying that they are off their best game of the season, a 38-14 win over the Redskins where they rolled up nearly 500 total yds on a pretty good defense. But it was also the first time all season that Atlanta won a game by more than seven points. This is the second of back to back road games for the team, a situation they have not yet faced in 2018 and won't be in again for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Cleveland is getting to play a second straight home game. The knock on Atlanta for years is that they aren't as good outdoors and Cleveland should be pretty chilly on Sunday. Incredibly, the Browns are on a 13-game ATS losing streak in the month of November. They have a banged up secondary coming into this game, which isn't good when facing a QB like Matt Ryan. But, despite the lack of success, the Browns have been largely competitive this season. They've gone to overtime FOUR times (1-2-1) and only three of their nine games have been decided by more than four points. All three have been in the last four weeks. I like the spot here and expect them to be competitive as QB Baker Mayfield actually played well last week, throwing for almost 300 yards. The Browns' defense is better than what it showed last week and has forced 23 turnovers on the year, a league-high. Meanwhile, the Atlanta defense is still 4th worst in the league in efficiency due to a combo of injuries and a tough schedule. The Falcons were 1-3 ATS as road favorites of a FG or more last season. 8* Cleveland |
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11-11-18 | Lions +7.5 v. Bears | Top | 22-34 | Loss | -135 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
8* Detroit (1:00 ET): Another game where the line has shifted somewhat significantly from the lookahead. In this instance, the Bears are now favored over the Lions by about a touchdown, rather than a field goal. The shift has a lot to do w/ last week as the Bears routed Buffalo (41-9) while the Lions lost at Minnesota, 24-9. But sometimes looks can be deceiving as Chicago was actually outgained by the Bills (264-190) only to feast on Nathan Peterman turnovers, two of which were returned for touchdowns. Meanwhile, Detroit wasn't as bad as the final score showed last week. They had more first downs than the Vikings, but unfortunately allowed QB Matt Stafford to be sacked 10 times. The Lions have beaten the Bears 9 of the last 10 meetings. Take the points. With Chicago now "expected" to win, let's see how they perform. At the start of the year, this was a team that I said could surprise and get to 9-7 SU and the playoffs. That's precisely the trajectory that we're looking at right now. Perhaps their 5-3 SU record should not come as any shock seeing as they've been favored in six of their eight games. It's impressive that they are 5-3 ATS, but now the spreads are starting to get bigger. While they did cover last week as big road favorites, as I mentioned there were extenuating circumstances there. Before the last two weeks, only one of their games (a 48-10 win over Tampa Bay) had been decided by more than seven points. I'm just not convinced this team is ready to cover a third straight game as a big favorite. Detroit should have the edge at QB in this game. The Bears' Mitchell Trubisky threw for only 355 yards (total) the last two weeks. For Chicago, this could be a lookahead spot as they have a huge home game vs. Minnesota next week (for 1st place in the NFC North). Meanwhile, Matt Patricia's Lions are fighting for relevancy. Another loss for them and the season would basically be over at 3-6 SU. We should be getting their best shot. I just feel this number is an overreaction to the final scores we've seen from both sides the L2 wks. Detroit isn't as bad and Chicago isn't as good as we've seen during that time. 8* Detroit |
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11-11-18 | Patriots v. Titans +7.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Titans picked up a much needed win on MNF, going to Dallas and beating the Cowboys 28-14 as 4-pt underdogs. Now they're on a short week against the Patriots, who are off a primetime win themselves, theirs coming Sunday night at home against Green Bay. While facing Bill Belichick on a short week is hardly ideal, at least the Titans have a former player for Belichick on their sidelines in the form of HC Mike Vrabel. So that helps. So too does getting this game in Nashville where they've won 12 of their last 15 games. New England hasn't been nearly as impressive on the road this year, losing at both Detroit and Jacksonville and needing a tackle on the 1-yd line to win in Chicago. Their lone road win this year by more than seven points was in Buffalo and even then they needed a late "pick-six" to cover. Take the points. Two of Tennessee's four losses this year have been by a single point. They have just one loss by more than seven points and that was the last time they played a home game, three weeks ago vs. Baltimore (lost 21-0). That game saw them get completely overwhelmed by the Ravens' top-ranked defense, but I don't see that happening again here. Also, in four road games, the Patriots offense has only scored seven touchdowns, three of those in one game (Chicago). The Titans have a really good defense having not allowed more than 20 pts in regulation since Week 1. Another key factor in handicapping this game is Tennessee had its bye two weeks ago, so they are relatively "fresh." New England has yet to have its bye (comes next week) and is playing a 10th consecutive week. Both teams won by two touchdowns last week, but for the Patriots, things were actually much closer than they ended up. The game was tied 17-17 and Green Bay was marching down for the go-ahead score when they fumbled the ball away. Meanwhile, the Titans largely dominated the Cowboys, outgaining them 340-297 and holding them scoreless in the second half. The Titans' offensive numbers for the year may not seem that impressive, but few teams have faced a tougher slate of defenses and they just scored their season high in points. The New England defense isn't that great as they have given up over six yards per play on the road. I'm actually expecting this to be a pretty low-scoring game, which will give the Titans a chance at the upset. 8* Tennessee |
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11-10-18 | UNLV +23 v. San Diego State | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 29 h 1 m | Show |
8* UNLV (10:30 ET): Second week in a row I'm playing against San Diego State in the late Saturday timeslot. Last week was a pretty easy win w/ New Mexico getting double digits at home. The Lobos scored a defensive touchdown early and led almost the whole way. Eventually, the Aztecs pulled out the win - and they should have, given a massive 401-142 edge in total yards - but it took three late scores to do so. Despite this, and all the team's deficiencies we discussed last week, we again find SDSU laying a big number, only this time at home. And again, I'll grab the points. UNLV comes into this game off a 48-3 loss at home (to Fresno State) and w/ an uncertain QB situation. The team desperately is hoping for Armani Rogers to be healthy enough to play here, but he probably won't start. Out since September 22nd, Rogers' absence has played a significant role in the Rebels' disappointing season. They haven't won since the injury, losing six straight, many of the blowout variety. No longer do the Rebels have a shot at being bowl eligible, but knocking off a team like San Diego State could be a season highlight. Now an outright win here would surprise me, but I do think the Rebels can certainly keep it close, especially with Rogers back. If Rogers were to play, it would create a situation where San Diego State would have to prepare for two very different QB's, the more mobile Rogers and the traditional passer Max Gilliam. Last week was not indicative of where this UNLV program is really at right now. They were up against the best team in the Mountain West and were w/o their best offensive player (Rogers). With Rogers back, the Rebels become a much more effective offense when it comes to running the ball. As discussed last week, San Diego State has not been able to blow teams out this year. This is due to a combination of committing too many penalties and an offense that averages only 22.2 PPG (less than the spread here!). Last week was actually the Aztecs' highest scoring effort of the year! They're 0-6 ATS as favorites in 2018 and have not won a game by more than eight points. Their six wins over FBS schools have come by a total of 31 points. 8* UNLV |
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11-10-18 | Rockets -2 v. Spurs | Top | 89-96 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:35 ET): It's still only November, but the Rockets REALLY need a win here. Call it the "curse of Carmelo Anthony" or whatever else you'd like, but this team is only 4-6 SU and just lost to the Russell Westbrook-less Thunder on Thursday. It was their third straight game getting held under 100 points and the fourth time in the last five games! This is a team that was neck and neck w/ Golden State for the top spot in offensive efficiency last year and was within one game of the NBA Finals. There were only seven instances all of last year's regular season where the Rockets were held below 100 pts and one of them was the meaningless final game. I'm expect an 'A' game from them tonight in San Antonio. This isn't the same Spurs team as we're used to seeing as the entire core of the past several seasons is gone. But they still have Greg Popovich coaching and DeMar DeRozan has somewhat stepped into a leadership role. But, like Houston, the Spurs are off a pretty poor performance as they were held to only 88 points on 33.3% shooting Wednesday night in Miami. It was the lowest shooting percentage in a game by any Spurs team dating back to '08. LaMarcus Aldridge was a woeful 2 of 14 from the floor despite grabbing 16 rebounds. It was also San Antonio's second straight loss as they fell here at home to Orlando on Sunday. San Antonio has played only twice since Sunday while this is Houston's fifth game in nine days. There's no sugarcoating how bad the Rockets played in OKC as they trailed for the entire second half and got down by as many as 25 points. But before that they'd won three in row and were starting to show signs of a turnaround. Slow start to the season or not, I believe they are the better team here and I will lay the short number. They won three of four against the Spurs last season. 10* Houston |
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11-10-18 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Hurricanes | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
8* Puck Line Detroit (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking Detroit +1.5. It was a tough start to the season for this once proud franchise, but the Red Wings have started to turn things around with five wins in the last six games. Their only loss during that span came by a single goal. Here, they're matched up with a Carolina club that has been on an opposite trajectory in that they started the year strong, but have dropped five of six. They won Thursday night, 4-3 over Chicago, but have not won a game by more than one goal since 10/22 over ... Detroit. So this is a revenge game for the Red Wings to boot. Detroit is a young team, but they're starting to come together. Their last two wins have both come beyond regulation, but remember that getting to overtime is all we'd need for a winning ticket here. I was impressed by the way they came from behind to defeat the Rangers last night, winning 3-2 in OT after going into the final period trailing 2-0. Nearly one-third of the Red Wings' games this season have gone past regulation. Over the last five, they're averaging 3.6 goals per game, which is way up from how the started the year offensively. Another good sign is that the scoring is coming from multiple players. Carolina goaltenders have a terrible .873 save percentage at home this season. This will be the Hurricanes' first home game of November. It's a tough road trip that they are coming off of w/ games in Arizona, Vegas, St. Louis and Chicago. Ironically, the win over Chicago was the first time all season that the 'Canes had been outshot in a game all season. While Detroit may rank only 27th in the league in goals scored per game, Carolina isn't too far ahead at 26th. So this could very well be a low-scoring game, making the +1.5 all the more valuable. I just don't trust the Hurricanes' goaltending situation enough to think they'll be able to win this game by multiple goals. 8* Puck Line Detroit (+1.5) |
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11-10-18 | Mississippi State +26 v. Alabama | Top | 0-24 | Win | 100 | 94 h 25 m | Show |
8* Mississippi State (3:30 ET): Yep. I'm willing to step in front of the Alabama train here. This may very well go down as Nick Saban's best team EVER in Tuscaloosa (think about that for a second), but the situation this week is hardly favorable. The Crimson Tide are coming off the quintessential "statement" game, having shutout rival LSU 29-0 last week. This would be the proverbial letdown spot. Not that I expect Bama to lose mind you, but look for the game to be closer than the experts think. As is the case for most Bama opponents, Mississippi State will treat this as their biggest regular season game. The Bulldogs are starting to gain traction offensively (scored 45 pts last week) and have gone 6-3 ATS this year despite being an underdog only twice. Take the points. Here's a "dirty little secret." Mississippi State is actually giving up fewer points per game than Alabama this season. The Bulldogs allow just 12.3 PPG (2nd nationally) while Bama is allowing 14.1 (7th). MSU has not given up more than 19 pts in any game since a 28-7 loss at Kentucky back on September 22nd. Now they have been held to 7 pts or less in all three losses. But I don't expect that to be the case here.This will be the first time this year that Alabama is facing a defense allowing fewer points per game than they do. I expect a little bit of a good old fashioned SEC "slugfest" here. Mississippi State has lost 10 straight to Alabama, but it was a 7-point game LY in Starkville, also the week after the Crimson Tide faced LSU. A big key (at least to me) in handicapping this game is that while Alabama was busy facing LSU last week, Mississippi State enjoyed a virtual "bye" in a 45-3 thrashing of Louisiana Tech. Don't forget that Alabama still has the Iron Bowl left (after they face The Citadel next week). Mississippi State is 8-5 ATS as an underdog the L3 seasons w/ five outright wins. Again, I'm not expecting an outright win here, I just think the situation lends itself to taking a big number and I'd also like to point out that I have MSU ranked in the top 10 of my own personal power rankings. Look for them to keep this game within three touchdowns. 8* Mississippi State |
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11-10-18 | Troy v. Georgia Southern | Top | 35-21 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 56 m | Show |
10* Georgia Southern (1:00 ET): Though my own personal numbers indicated they should have been a much bigger favorite, I stayed away from Georgia Southern last Saturday, feeling that it was an absolutely horrible spot for them to lay points, on the road no less, coming off the huge win over Appalachian State. Turns out that feeling was correct as the Eagles went down at the hands of LA Monroe, 44-25, in what was easily their worst performance of the season. They found themselves down 27-3 before halftime and were outgained 573-216 for the game. But you have to keep in mind that the only other team to beat Ga Southern this year was #2 Clemson. In what shapes up as their most important game of the year, I'll call for the Eagles to bounce back in Statesboro. Troy is the only team w/o a conference loss in the Sun Belt. They are 5-0 SU, meaning they're up by one game over both Ga Southern and Appalachian State. Earlier in the year, the Trojans treated me to a nice upset over Nebraska, although we didn't know just how bad the Cornhuskers were yet and the Troy was actually held to only 243 total yards in that game. Still, the Trojans are 7-2 SU at this point in the season (same as Ga Southern) w/ their only losses coming to Boise State and Liberty. They have not yet faced Appalachian State as that game is the regular season finale, in Boone. Troy has hardly faced the most challenging schedule so far in conference play and wasn't all that impressive in a 26-16 win over Louisiana last week as seven-point home favorites. If Ga Southern were to win here, then they control their own destiny in the Sun Belt East Division and would have the tiebreaker over both Troy and Appalachian State. So you can see just how important this game truly is. A loss and the division likely goes to the winner of Troy-App State at the end of the year. The good news is this game being in Statesboro where the Eagles are a perfect 5-0 SU this year and outscoring opponents by nearly 23 PPG. They'd also beaten Troy six straight times prior to LY's 38-16 loss. But Ga Southern was not a good team last year (went just 2-10 SU). This year, they're back up to 7th in the country in rushing offense. They steamrolled a very good App State team on this field two weeks ago. They are the better team and should be favored here. 10* Georgia Southern |
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11-10-18 | North Carolina v. Duke -10.5 | Top | 35-42 | Loss | -108 | 91 h 16 m | Show |
8* Duke (12:20 ET): Every season, for certain teams, there comes a time when one must reconcile expectations w/ reality. For North Carolina, that time has long since passed. Coming off a 3-9 SU season, the Tar Heels were widely expected to be a lock to improve in 2018. That simply has not happened. It was a bit of an auspicious offseason w/ HC Larry Fedora having questionable takes on CTE. There was the early season disruption of Hurricane Florence. But the bottom line is that this team simply hasn't been any good this year. I did take them back in Game 3, against Pitt, when they were off an unexpected bye due to the Hurricane (and, for UNC's sake, thank goodness that game vs. UCF was cancelled!). They won that game, but that's their ONLY win this year. With nothing left to play for, I expect these last couple weeks to go very poorly for the Tar Heels. Expect Duke to have no sympathy for their rival this weekend in Durham. The Blue Devils are coming off their first road win over Miami FL since 1976. They were outgained 411-290, yet still pulled the 20-12 upset as nine-point dogs. Though its unlikely that they'll win the ACC Coastal, I expect Duke to play well down the stretch. They'd dropped B2B games before beating Miami. Here, they'll be looking for their first home win since Sept 22. They'll also be looking for a fifth win in seven years over UNC. Though that's the case, they've won only 5 of the past 28 meetings. So there's still a sense of "payback" for the program. Expect the Duke offense to have little difficulty scoring on a UNC defense that is allowing 34.7 PPG. In five of its last six games, the Tar Heels have allowed at least 31 points. The Blue Devils are just two weeks removed from a 45-point, 600+ yard performance against Pitt. Last week, they were forced to play in the slop at Miami. Conditions should be a lot more conducive to a big offensive day here and that includes facing this porous UNC defense. The Tar Heels have been outscored by nearly 16 PPG on the road. My power rankings indicate a similar, if not slightly larger, margin of victory for the favorite here. 8* Duke |
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11-09-18 | Fresno State v. Boise State +3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 59 h 59 m | Show |
10* Boise State (10:15 ET): A home underdog on the blue turf? That's virtually unheard of. In fact, it has not happened in more than a decade! The last time they were a home dog to a conference opponent was 1999. So enter Fresno State, ranked #23 in the country and an incredible 18-3-2 ATS in 23 games under HC Jeff Tedford. This is a rubber match of sorts with the teams splitting a pair of meetings last season, each winning at home. Boise State's win turned out to be more important as it came in the Mt West Champ Game. They were also nine-point favorites in the 17-14 win. While FSU is - without question - improved this year, I do not believe they deserve to be the favorite here. Boise State is still outscoring its visitors by almost three touchdowns per game this year. Fresno State has been blowing out the competition. They are 5-0 SU/ATS in conference games w/ an average margin of victory of almost 30 PPG. In four of the five games, they've given up seven points or less! But it's been "competition" in name only as the Bulldogs haven't exactly been taking on the best that the Mountain West has to offer. They're coming off games against Nevada, Hawaii, Wyoming, New Mexico and UNLV. They also play San Jose State (at home) in the season finale. I don't have any of those teams rated higher than 86th in my power rankings. Remember that Fresno State lost to Minnesota earlier this year. The next two weeks, this game and San Diego State, will be the true referendum on their season. It won't be easy for Boise State to move the ball against this Fresno State defense, however, QB Brett Rypien will be the best that FSU has seen all season. Rypien has a 24-6 TD-INT ratio and the Broncos are 20th in FBS in total offense. Fresno State has lost nine straight trips here and I just can't get over Boise State as a home dog. They are 2-0 ATS as dogs in this, their 5th year under HC Bryan Harsin. Both times came last year and one resulted in an outright upset of San Diego State. The Broncos have a pretty good defense as well, having allowed 20 pts or fewer five times. As impressive as Fresno State has been so far, it's come at the expense of a pretty weak schedule. This is - easily - their toughest test to date. 10* Boise State |
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11-09-18 | Hornets +6 v. 76ers | Top | 132-133 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Philadelphia finally won a road game, doing so Wednesday at Indiana, 100-94 as a 2.5-pt dog. Now they return home where they've yet to taste defeat (6-0 straight up). Two of those six wins have been by two points or less, however, one of them against Charlotte back on October 27th. It was a 105-103 final, a game where neither side had a lead of more than six points the entire second half. Therefore, taking the points in this rematch would seem prudent, especially considering the Hornets have the better YTD point differential (6th best in NBA!) and easily covered the last time. Since losing to the 76ers, the Hornets have won three of four. The only loss was to Oklahoma City by four points. All three wins came by double digits. Though Kemba Walker is currently 2nd in the league in scoring at 28.1 PPG, this is a deep Charlotte team. Seven players were in double figures in a 32-point win over Cleveland and then five were in Tuesday's win over Atlanta. You may recall that I faded the Hornets in that spot vs. Atlanta (and came away w/ a half-point cover!), but it's important to note they were also double digit favorites. Here, they are underdogs, a role that has seen them go 3-1 ATS this season. Of the team's five losses, four have been by four points or less. Going back to last season, Philly has taken the last five meetings from Charlotte. They swept the season series last year, also going 4-0 ATS, but all four games were contested after March 1st when the Hornets were pretty much out of contention. Charlotte missed 26 of 35 three-pointers in the last meeting, which probably won't happen again here considering the team is shooting a much more reasonable 36.5% from behind the arc for the season. Philadelphia's offensive production has been far more inconsistent and they've averaged just 102 PPG the L3 contests. Philly is a top five team in defensive efficiency, but Charlotte is top five in offensive efficiency. This could then boil down to the fact Charlotte is 11th in defensive efficiency while Philadelphia is 20th offensively. 10* Charlotte |
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11-09-18 | UL-Lafayette +16.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 65-87 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
8* UL Lafayette (7:00 ET): Tennessee is a top 10 team playing at home, but they're laying too many points here. Let's not put a ton of stock into the Vols' 81-46 over non-board team Lenoir-Rhyne either. The Bears did not have a single starter w/ more than one made field goal and they barely shot 20% from the field. Clearly, they were not a formidable opponent. But I believe the Ragin Cajuns can be as they too dominated a lesser opponent in their opener, scoring 121 points. Take the points. Louisiana shot a ridiculous 67.1% from the field en route to scoring 121 pts on the University of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Obviously, as is the case for UT, things will be nowhere near that easy tonight. But with six players scoring in double figures in the opener, the Ragin Cajuns certainly are capable of making a "run at it" this evening. This team shot 58.3% from three-point range in the opener. Am I a little concerned about the defense? Sure. But ULL can score enough to hang within a huge number. They won 27 games last season. This was a top 15 team nationally in scoring too. Tennessee has a lot of hype, which may be working against it right now. I think there could be some defensive regression this year in spite of what we saw in the opener and all the talent back. Consider that over the last two seasons, the Vols are just 1-4 ATS when laying more than 12.5 points at home. They have bigger games they might be looking ahead to on the docket. This is the highest preseason ranking in school history. Two guards, Jalen Johnson and Lamonte Turner, are battling injuries and could be limited here. 8* UL Lafayette |
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11-08-18 | Evansville +13.5 v. Illinois | Top | 60-99 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
8* Evansville (8:00 ET): Both of these teams are in rebuild mode. Illinois is in the second year of their rebuild under HC Brad Underwood while Evansville is set to embark on its own, under 1st year HC Walter McCarty (yes, the former Kentucky standout). The situation almost begs for you to take the points as scoring should be at a premium in this game where both teams are trying to find their way. Both teams are expected to finish near the bottom of their respective conferences. Illinois, the favorite, allowed 73.8 PPG last season. Take the points. The Illini bring back only four players from last season, one of them being talented guard Trent Frazier. He's pretty much the only holdover worth mentioning as the other key player figures to be highly touted freshman Ayo Dosunmu. Overall, Underwood will have SIX freshman playing for him this season, so this is a really young Illinois team. Such a young team could be likely to overlook an opponent like Evansville and is not a good candidate to lay points with. In the games that they were favored to win last season, the Illini only won by an average of 8.1 points per game. Evansville is going to have to deal w/ a press, but I feel the 1st game of the season allows you adequate time to prepare for that. Like Illinois, there is a lot of roster turnover here for the Purple Aces. It's top three scorers from last year are all gone and the three most talented players on the roster are all ineligible right now. That's hardly a good sign, but this team can play defense and hopefully that continues under McCarty. Lsat season, the Purple Aces ranked 11th in the country, giving up just 63.9 PPG. If they can keep Illinois close to that number, then they should cover w/ ease tonight. 8* Evansville |
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11-08-18 | Wake Forest +17 v. NC State | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 32 h 4 m | Show |
8* Wake Forest (7:30 ET): I don't believe for a second that North Carolina State is the 14th best team in the country entering this weekend. In fact, I don't even count the Wolfpack among my top 40 teams in the country! That rationale is the basis for this Thursday night ACC play as Wake Forest comes calling to Raleigh. Now I'm not particularly high on the Demon Deacons either. But this is a generous pointspread for a team that generally competes hard for HC Dave Clawson. NC State is likely still reveling in last week's 47-28 beatdown of Florida State, which isn't all that impressive (the Seminoles are BAD), but still meant a lot to the program. Wake is only 1-5 ATS as a dog TY, but had previously gone 11-2 in that role. They also beat NC State last year, 30-24 in Winston-Salem. I have to say that I'm a bit surprised to see NC State at 6-2 on the year. Granted, the West Virginia game getting cancelled (Hurricane Florence) probably helped considering that would have been a likely loss to the Mountaineers. My regulars will recall the Wolfpack were an easy fade (for me) when they squared off against #2 Clemson in a battle of unbeatens. The market "tipped its hand" by installing NC State as large underdogs in that one (closed +18.5), but it still wasn't enough in an embarrassing 41-7 loss. Now, this isn't Clemson that they're facing this week. But be aware that last week was the team's first win by more than 17 points since beating a terrible Georgia State team 41-7 back in Week 2. This will be their 1st time as DD chalk since that game. NC State came in ranked (#25) for LY's meeting w/ Wake as well. The upset marked the third straight year the Demon Deacons beat a ranked team. They're 0-3 SU in such situations in 2018 and this is probably their last time facing a Top 25 team. They also need to win two of the final three games in order to be bowl eligible. Clawson is faced w/ a QB dilemma here as starter Sam Hartman is out for the rest of the regular season w/ a leg injury. So it will either be Kendall Hinton (who has previous starting experience) or redshirt soph Jamie Newman under center for this game. Maybe that doesn't sound ideal, but recall that the Demon Deacons were w/o their best offensive player (WR Greg Dortsch) when they upset the Wolfpack. I just don't like the idea of laying so many points w/ NC State. 8* Wake Forest |
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11-08-18 | Canucks +1.5 v. Bruins | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
8* Puck Line Vancouver (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Canucks +1.5. Despite losing in a shootout Tuesday night, Vancouver remains a pleasant surprise in this league. They are tied for 1st in the Pacific w/ 19 points and would be coming into this game on a four-game win streak had they not blown a 2-0 lead to Detroit. That's one more point than tonight's opponent, Boston, has and the Canucks also beat the Bruins back on October 20th, 2-1. I'll call for them to do no worse than a one-goal loss here. Vancouver had been a bit of a scoring machine recently, totaling 16 goals in a three-game win streak over Minnesota, Chicago and Colorado. All those games were at home. They began what will be a 6-game swing out East, Tuesday in Detroit, and it looked as if the scoring barrage would continue as they led 2-0 midway through the second period. But it was not to be. They allowed the Red Wings to answer w/ two of their own and then lost in a shootout. It will be tough cracking a Bruins team that is 2nd in the league in goals allowed. But the Canucks were able to win a low-scoring game at home and there's still plenty to be excited about with this team, namely rookie Elias Petterson and his 10 goals. Over its last four games, Boston has been shutout twice and won two games by a goal apiece. So the Puck Line seems like it could be a very useful tool tonight. Half of the Bruins' last eight contests have been decided by one goal, including the last one where they beat Dallas 2-1 in OT. They gave up a short-handed goal early in that contest, but were able to answer on a later power play w/ a goal of their own. Interesting that Boston is only 24th in goals per game despite having the 5th highest power play percentage in the league. That tells me that this is a team struggling to score when at even strength. I also don't think there's anyway that goalie Jaroslav Halak, who is likely to get the start tonight, can maintain his current hot streak (.962 save percentage L4 games). 8* Puck Line Vancouver (+1.5) |
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11-07-18 | Toledo +3 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 15-38 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
8* Toledo (8:00 ET): Last week, I was on Toledo while also playing against Northern Illinois, so I suppose I have a bit of a built-in "predilection" towards the Rockets here. But this play is certainly based on more than just the results of one week. Toledo appears to be peaking at the right time as they ended October w/ B2B blowout wins over Western Michigan and Ball State coming by a combined 59 points. As per usual, this matchup w/ NIU is likely to determine the MAC West Champion. The Huskies lead the division as they are the only MAC team - besides Buffalo - w/o a conference loss. But they've been living dangerously much of this season, winning close and not scoring a ton of points. I believe Toledo is set to come into DeKalb and pull the upset. The Toledo offense definitely seems to be back on track. They've scored 96 points and gone over 1,000 total yards the L2 games and run for at least 200 yards in four of the last five contests. Despite five turnovers LW (also had five takeaways), they had little difficulty vs. Ball State, jumping out to a 21-0 halftime lead. As mentioned in last week's analysis, 2018 is the 1st time in eight years that the Rockets suffered four losses in their first eight games. They've produced a winning ATS record seven of the last eight years, but currently stand at just 4-5 vs. the number. The QB carousel has not mattered as this offense is now averaging over 40 PPG and 6.0 yards per play. Eli Peters will get the start at QB Wednesday, his 3rd of '18. He has thrown for nearly 1,000 yds on the season. Northern Illinois does not have an offense that can compare to Toledo's. In fact, the Huskies had not topped 26 pts in a game prior to LW's 36-26 win at Akron. Note that was a three-point game until NIU had a key "pick-six" in the 4Q. The offense is averaging less than 20 PPG, so laying points w/ them is less than ideal. The Huskies have actually been held to seven points or less in three of their nine games! All but one win this year (last week!) has been by one score w/ three coming by a FG or less. In the win over Ohio three weeks ago, the Huskies were able to rally from a double digit deficit. Then came the ugliest of victories, 7-6 over BYU, where they barely gained 200 yards total offense. I believe Toledo is the better team here and thus I'll take the points. 8* Toledo |
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11-07-18 | Ohio v. Miami-OH +3.5 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
10* Miami OH (7:00 ET): This is a rivalry game. "The Battle of the Bricks" takes place every year between Ohio and Miami, two schools separated by 189 miles (on opposite sides of Columbus). This is the 95th all-time meeting and Ohio has had the edge under HC Frank Solich, going 11-2 SU w/ five consecutive victories. There have been some real "lean" years for Miami during that time, but there's no reason this year's team shouldn't compete, if not finally break the losing skid. The RedHawks are also in a situation where they must win out to become bowl eligible. The last two years have been relatively disappointing in Oxford, but a win over their rival would go a long way in changing that. This spread seems too heavily influenced by last week's results. Take the points. In 2016, Miami became the 1st team in NCAA history to open 0-6 and then win its final six regular season games. After that, there was some real optimism surrounding the program after it had made just one postseason appearance (2010) since the Ben Roethlisberger era. But the last two years have been disappointing. They finished just 5-7 SU a year ago and enter this game 3-6 SU after a loss to MAC East leader Buffalo last week. However, two of the RedHawks' last three losses have been by one point and LW's game was back & forth, tied 42-42 entering the 4Q. My view is that this team is better than its record. They have a very capable QB in Gus Ragland, who threw for 313 yards last week on 20 of 35 passing. Ohio controls its own destiny in the MAC East w/ a potentially huge first place showdown looming next week against Buffalo. Though this is a rivalry game, I can see the Bobcats looking past it. There is no doubt in my mind that this game would have been closer to a pick 'em if not for Ohio absolutely destroying Western Michigan last week (in Kalamazoo!) 59-14. That game saw the Bobcats take an astonishing 45-0 halftime lead. Note that they were +6 in turnover differential, had three scoring drives of less than 20 yards plus a blocked punt returned for touchdown. I know Ohio has covered four straight and averaged 53.3 PPG in the last three. But they were just 1-3 SU away from Athens prior to last week and their rival will be more than ready, having had two extra days to prepare. 10* Miami OH |
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11-07-18 | Western Carolina +17.5 v. Wright State | Top | 73-96 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
8* Western Carolina (7:00 ET): Wright State should not be laying this many points, in my opinion. They did win 25 games and the Horizon League last season, but this year's squad lost two of that team's key players - Grant Benzinger and Justin Mitchell - both of whom were double digit scorers. Now it has been B2B 20+ win seasons for the Raiders under HC Scott Nagy and my projections for this year have them right line for that win total again this year. But this is a big number to lay for a team that was not a double-digit favorite all that often last year. Take the points. Western Carolina finished sixth in the SoCon last season w/ a sub-.500 record and was 13-19 SU overall. It was a poor finish to the regular season as the lost seven of their final 10 games, then were one and done in the Conference Tournament. For this year, the Catamounts have a new head coach (Mark Prosser), though he will need a find a way to replace lost production from the top two scorers from LY both graduating. While it may seem like Western Carolina has no chance here, don't be surprised to see them be a better shooting team than they were last year (were 327th in FG%). It may seem odd that I'm calling for improved offense against a Wright State team that held its opponents under 60 PPG last year. But with this promising to be a pretty low-scoring game overall, taking the points is definitely the way to go. Wright State failed to score more than 65 points in almost a third of its games last season. Look for the underdog to find a way to stay under the big number. 8* Western Carolina |
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11-06-18 | UC-Santa Barbara +7.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
10* Cal Santa Barbara (10:00 ET): Wyoming traditionally has one of the top homecourt edges in the sport (high elevation!), but I don't think that alone wil be able to carry them against what is a gutty underdog. Truthfully, I'm not convinced that the better team isn't the one getting points here. Under the guidance of a 1st year HC (Joe Pasternack), UCSB completed the second best single-season turnaround in D-I history last year, going from 6 to 23 wins. They were denied a postseason berth as they lost in the Big West Tourney semis, but did go 11-4 ATS on the road last season. Wyoming was a terrible defensive team LY and also lost four of its five top scorers. Take the points. UCSB also must deal with some key departures as they have only one starter back from last year's turnaround team. Max Heidigger (19.1 PPG) is the one key holdover. But unlike Wyoming, the Gauchos appear to be well-positioned to replace that departed talent. They had the best recruiting class in the Big West plus added a few key transfers, Devearl Ramsey from Nevada, JaQuori McLaughin from Oregon State and Ar'mond Davis from Alabama. Ramsey is a speedy point guard while the other two will definitely help the Gauchos' shooting from long-range. Wyoming is off B2B 20+ win seasons. They also won 10 conference (Mt West) games LY, just the 2nd time in 16 years they'd done that. But as mentioned above, four of the top five scorers are gone and that's not good news for a team that didn't really shoot the ball all that well anyway. Even worse is the team's defensive outlook. Last year, the Cowboys ranked a horrendous 317th in scoring, allowing 78.7 PPG. That makes them a dicey proposition to lay points with, and they had a losing ATS record at home last year anyway. 10* Cal Santa Barbara |
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11-06-18 | South Alabama +20 v. Auburn | Top | 58-101 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
8* South Alabama (9:00 ET): Auburn will start the season ranked #11 as most consider them the third-best team in the SEC, behind Tennessee and, of course, Kentucky. The Tigers were a 4-seed in LY's NCAA Tournament, but bowed out in embarrassing fashion in the Round of 32, losing by 31 to Clemson. They were not a healthy team come Tourney time and a couple of key offseason departures have me a little "lukewarm" on them to start the year, even though they're still expected to score plenty of points here in 2018-19. But this is a big number to lay in the first game and I'll take the points. South Alabama has a new HC, Richie Riley, who comes over from Nicholls State. Riley, a former assistant at both UAB and Clemson, led Nicholls State to the regular season championship in the Southland. After five straight losing seasons, the Jaguars should be significantly improved this season and be a player in the Sun Belt. They return the majority of LY's roster, including their top five scorers. Riley inherits a team that was in the top 15 in the country in forcing turnovers, doing so on 22.4% of opponents' possessions. The Jaguars will have to improve their shooting, both from three-point rang and the free throw line. They should do that. You may have forgotten that Auburn opened last season by winning 16 of its first 17 games. At one point, people were buying Bruce Pearl's team as a possible #1 seed (I did not). The key to their eventual downfall was a season-ending injury to Anfernee McLemore. He is back, but Mustapha Heron (transferred to St. John's) is not, nor is LY's leading rebounder Desean Murray (transferred to Western Kentucky). Also, Danjel Purify is ineligible for the season's first nine games due to the scandal that has engulfed the sport. Austin Wiley, like Purify, was ineligible LY due to the scandal. He had actually been cleared, but is now doubtful for the season opener due to a foot injury. I believe we're not going to see the Tigers score the way they did last season, at least initially. 8* South Alabama |
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11-06-18 | Hawks +11.5 v. Hornets | Top | 102-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): On paper, Charlotte probably could not have asked for an easier set of back to back games than what they're getting here. After easily dispatching of Cleveland Sunday night (won by 32!), they'll get Atlanta tonight, also at home. The Hornets are 5-5 SU on the season, but actually own the East's third best point differential at +7.6 points per game. They are an impressive 4th in offensive efficiency. However, I don't see things going quite as easy tonight as they did Saturday vs. Cleveland when seven Hornets finished in double figures, including five off the bench. I'll take the big number in this one. Coming into the year, most had Atlanta finishing at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. This is definitely a rebuilding project, but the team has won three games, including its last one. Saturday night, they upset Miami (at home) by a score of 123-118 (as 5.5 pt dogs). Rookie Trae Young led the way w/ 24 points and a career-best 15 assists. The team made 13 three-pointers and led by as many as 15 in the second half. This will be among the biggest numbers that the Hawks have gotten so far and it's one worth grabbing. Now the Hornets have largely controlled this Southeast Division rivalry, winning and covering seven of the past eight meetings, including all four here in Charlotte. But they are usually not this large of a favorite. The Hornets are 2 for 2 as double digit chalk so far this year, easily beating both Chicago and Cleveland. But I see a team prone to a letdown in this spot, especially w/ a more marquee battle (at Philadelphia Friday night) looming on the horizon. Note that Charlotte is 2-5 ATS after scoring 125+ points in their previous game. 10* Atlanta |
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11-05-18 | Rockets v. Pacers -1 | Top | 98-94 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Pacers were my *10* Game of the Week on Saturday and despite being in the second game of a back to back, they rallied to beat Boston on Victor Oladipo's jumper w/ just a few seconds remaining. I thought they were a "steal" as a home dog in that matchup and here that's the case as well against a Rockets team that simply is not playing very well in the early going. Right now, Indiana is one of only six teams in the league with a win percentage of .700 or higher and outscoring its opponents by five or more points per game. I think they should be favored by more here and I'll take them for a second straight time at home at what looks to be an excellent value. Houston, who won 65 regular season games a year ago, was a massive disappointment in opening the season 1-5. They've won B2B road games, but those came against Brooklyn and Chicago and neither were easy despite both victories coming by eight points. They actually trailed at the half in both games. With Chris Paul and James Harden each missing multiple games, it would be easy to pin the Rockets' problems on that. But I believe the team's issues run a bit deeper. They've already suffered four double digit losses, all at home no less. They're 3-1 SU on the road, but won't be able to overwhelm Indiana in a quarter like they did to both Brooklyn and Chicago. With Eric Gordon still out, Rockets' HC Mike D'Antoni has had to use five different starting lineups in eight games. Indiana's three-game win streak has been by a total of nine points, so they're by no means blowing teams out recently. But they were earlier on in the season w/ their first four wins all coming by double digits. Compare that to a Houston team that has yet to win any game by double digits. The Rockets' scoring is way down this year (106.2 PPG) due them shooting just 42.3% from the floor. At the same time, the defense has gotten way worse, though numbers have slightly improved because of the last two games. But right now, Indiana is simply the better team here and I'll take them at home. 10* Indiana |
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11-04-18 | Chargers v. Seahawks +1 | Top | 25-17 | Loss | -108 | 43 h 41 m | Show |
8* Seattle (4:05 ET): This is a good matchup of two teams that appear to be playoff caliber. Seattle won big for me last week as my *10* Game of the Week, going into Detroit and winning outright (were three point dogs) 28-14. After an 0-2 start, the Seahawks have won four of five and what's most impressive about that is only one of their last four games was played here at Century Link Field. Ironically, that happens to be the last loss they suffered, but it was by only two against the still unbeaten Rams. So much for the breakup of the "Legion of Boom" as this defense is giving up just 18.7 points and 327.3 yards per game, both top five marks in the league. QB Russell Wilson continues to make plays for an offense averaging 28.3 PPG the last three weeks. LA is 5-2. Their only losses have been to the Chiefs and Rams. Somewhat uncharacteristic, but the Chargers are 2-0 in games decided by three points or less. (For years, they have had one of the worst records in close games). But while there's no shame in losing to teams like the Chiefs and Rams, let's take a look at those five teams the Chargers have defeated: Buffalo, San Francisco, Oakland, Cleveland and Tennessee. Those are all teams with losing records and four of them (sans Tennessee) just might be bottom five teams in the league. They barely survived Tennessee over in London two weeks ago, needing to stop a 2-pt conversion attempt on the game's final play (won 20-19). Despite being off a bye, RB Melvin Gordon is questionable to play this week. Seattle enjoys one of the league's strongest homefield advantages, so I'm surprised they're not favored here. Through the years, it's been exceedingly rare to get the Seahawks laying three points or less at home. They were underdogs to the Rams, easily covering the spread there. Their only other home game was a 24-13 win over Dallas. The offense has run for 155+ yards in four straight games. The Chargers' run defense did allow 164 yards on 33 carries to the Titans, so they might be susceptible. The Chargers have not beaten a good team yet this year, so I give the Seahawks a significant edge at home. 8* Seattle |
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11-04-18 | Steelers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -118 | 113 h 57 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (1:00 ET): Pittsburgh won big for me last week, as expected, beating Cleveland 33-18 as 8-pt favorites. I thought it was an ideal spot to play the Steelers as they were coming off a bye, at home, and the Browns had just played their fourth overtime game of the season. Plus, they'd actually drastically outplayed Cleveland in a tie earlier in the season. As it turns out, the Browns wound up firing BOTH their head coach and offensive coordinator after the game. This week is a far less ideal spot for the Black & Gold as they head to Baltimore to face the rival Ravens. Baltimore has dropped B2B games to fall to 4-4 SU, but they did win in Pittsburgh earlier in the year. I took the Ravens in that first meeting as they rolled to a 26-14 win and cover. I expect the rematch to go pretty similarly. After that win in Pittsburgh, the Ravens looked like one of the best teams in the AFC as they were 3-1. But they've since dropped three of four, two of the losses coming in brutal fashion. One was in overtime at Cleveland, a 12-9 final. The other was at home vs. New Orleans where usually sure-footed kicker Justin Tucker missed what would have been the game-tying XP in the final minute of regulation. Last week was the team's weakest effort of the year as they went down in Carolina 36-21. Being -3 in turnovers did them no favors there. The Ravens defense continues to lead the league in scoring (17.1 PPG allowed) and is the ONLY one in the league allowing fewer than 300 YPG. That will come in quite handy this week for their biggest game of the year. The Ravens haven't lost B2B games very often under HC John Harbaugh. They did so twice last year, but both times they came back w/ a double digit victory the next game. Only having to lay a short number w/ them at home here is quite ideal as they're 5-2 SU and ATS the L7 times as a home favorite of three points or less. They really dominated that first meeting in Pittsburgh, outgaining the Steelers 451-284 w/ a 24-14 edge in first downs. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger fractured his index finger last week and while he's going to be on the field, don't think it won't negatively impact his play. 10* Baltimore |
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11-04-18 | Chiefs v. Browns +9 | Top | 37-21 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 60 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): The Browns were my top go against last week as I was on the Steelers. I thought it was a horrible spot for the Browns as Pittsburgh was off a bye and they were off their fourth OT game of the year w/ the defense having played a season-high 95 snaps. The Browns couldn't beat the Steelers at home in Week 1 despite a torrential downpour and being +5 in turnovers. Turns out, I was right. Cleveland lost 33-18 (scored a garbage-time TD) and subsequently fired its head coach (Hue Jackson) and OC (Todd Haley). DC Gregg Williams now takes over as the interim, trying desperately to provide a spark for a team that has lost three in a row. The Browns have an exciting rookie QB in Baker Mayfield, but let's face it: this has been the most miserable franchise in the entire NFL for two decades. Meanwhile, things couldn't be any more different for Kansas City. They are one of top teams in the league, led by QB Patrick Mahomes, who has thrown 4 TD passes in three straight games. The Chiefs lead the league in offense, averaging 36.2 points per game. There has been only one game where they didn't score at least 30 points and their only loss was by a field goal at New England. But if there is one albatross, it's a defense that is permitting 432.4 yards per game. Despite that great offense, the Chiefs have actually been outgained on the year as the defense ranks 31st. They've been outgained in six of eight games overall! Cleveland has struggled to close games, but they've lost only twice by more than a field goal, one of those last week. The Browns' defense has been quite opportunistic, leading the league w/ 22 forced turnovers. The pass defense has been one of the best in the league, particularly at home where visiting QB's are posting the lowest QBR in the league. Really, the team should have a better record than 2-5-1. I mentioned last week that it looked as if Mayfield had been regressing, well now he's freed from the Jackson-Haley power struggle. This is simply too many points for KC to lay on the road as I expect the Browns to play inspired after the coaching change. 8* Cleveland |
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11-03-18 | San Diego State v. New Mexico +10.5 | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 57 h 32 m | Show |
8* New Mexico (10:15 ET): Needless to say, HC Rocky Long has enjoyed an unparalleled amount of success in the long standing rivalry between San Diego State and New Mexico. When Long was the HC at New Mexico, his Lobos won eight straight over the Aztecs from 2001-08. Now as the HC at San Diego State, it's the Aztecs that currently enjoy a six-game win streak in this Mt West rivalry! So I realize it's risky to try and fade Long in this matchup late Saturday night, especially considering San Diego State is 12-0 SU against teams w/ losing records the L3 seasons. But this is a pretty big number to lay in Albuquerque for an Aztecs team that only averages 21.1 points per game. San Diego State lost as favorites last week on the road, falling to Nevada 28-24. They were just a two-point choice there. Despite outgaining the Wolf Pack 456-297 (24-14 in first downs), the Aztecs were shutout in the second half. This has simply not been a good ATS team in 2018 as their only win by more than a touchdown came against FCS school, Sacramento State. Their other five wins have been by a total of 23 points. So I don't see how they can be asked to lay this number on the road. They only beat a terrible San Jose State team by three at home and have not scored more than 24 points in any conference game. They are 0-5 ATS when favored this season. Now New Mexico is off a 61-19 drubbing at the hands of Utah State last week and a 38-7 loss to Fresno State the game before. But those just might be the two best teams in the MWC this year. Having never beaten Long, UNM HC Bob Davie is going to be particularly motivated here, especially w/ his Lobos needing to win three of the final four games to be bowl eligible. Not that it would have changed the final outcome, but five turnovers killed this team last week. Davie's future is very much up in the air, so he badly needs a big win and to get the Lobos to the postseason. Davie has made another change at QB for this game as it will Colton Gerhart taking snaps, bringing a run-pass mix option to the table. The change makes the underdog a little tougher to prepare for and I think they keep it close. 8* New Mexico |
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11-03-18 | Celtics v. Pacers +3.5 | Top | 101-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:05 ET): After trailing by as many as 18 in the first half, the Pacers were able to come back and beat the lowly Bulls Friday night w/ Darren Collison's jumper in the final seconds being the difference in a 107-105 final. It was the team's second straight "close" win as they beat the Knicks by only six on Wednesday. But now, for just the fourth time all year, Indiana gets to play a home game. They won their first two, beating both Brooklyn and Memphis pretty handily, but lost to Portland earlier in the week. This won't be an easy three-game homestand for the Pacers as they face the Celtics, Rockets and 76ers. But I think they'll up to the challenge tonight from Boston. While Indiana is the team playing the second night of a back to back, I'm wondering if it's not the Celtics in the worse situation here. They're being asked to lay points on the road after a big home win Thursday night over previously unbeaten Milwaukee. I see no way the Celtics will match their prolific shooting from that game where they made a record 24 three-pointers. That three-point shooting helped nullify that the Bucks had a ridiculous 62-22 edge in points in the paint. The Celtics did have a double-digit lead going into the 4Q, but things quickly got tight and they had to hold on a for 117-113 victory. While Boston has won four in a row, three of those wins have been by six points or less. I'm certain that the Indiana players and coaching staff will treat this as a "measuring stick" game as to determine where the team is at in the Eastern Conference pecking order. Last year, they played four tight games w/ the Celtics and the road team surprisingly won all four. Three of the games were decided by a total of nine points, so going w/ the underdog here seems logical. The way that Boston was outscored in the paint by Milwaukee makes me thinks that the Pacers' Domantas Sabonis is going to have a big game here. Sabonis is shooting 70.7% from the field so far. Jaylen Brown is currently listed as questionable for the Celtics. Take the points. 10* Indiana |
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11-03-18 | Houston v. SMU +14.5 | Top | 31-45 | Win | 100 | 53 h 17 m | Show |
8* SMU (7:00 ET): Houston treated me very well last week as my top American Conference Game of the Year. They routed USF 57-36, gaining nearly 700 total yards of offense in the process. Not surprisingly then, the Cougars are the quintessential "public side" this week at SMU, a team w/ a losing record. Houston has scored at least 41 points in every game this season and outside of still unbeaten UCF, should be viewed as the top team in this conference. But this shapes up to be the proverbial letdown game, a situation where they're off the biggest win of the year and have another big home game on deck, vs. Temple, next week. Meanwhile, this could be viewed as SMU's biggest home game of the year outside of TCU. The Mustangs have played a fairly challenging schedule to this point and generally been competitive. I'll take the points. Earlier this year, I took SMU as a home dog and came out w/ a winning ticket. It was against Navy, a game they won outright 31-30. It was at a time when the team was coming off B2B losses to TCU and Michigan. Last week was another OT game, only this time the Ponies lost on a pick-six to Cincinnati. There was only overtime because Cincinnati drove for a game-tying FG at the end of regulation. Still, SMU covered as 8.5-pt dogs, so they're 4-1 ATS the last five times they have taken points. The only ATS loss during that time came at unbeaten UCF. Note that the Mustangs were within two scores of Michigan in the Big House in the 4th quarter earlier in the year. They also upset Tulane on the road two weeks ago. Houston was only a six-point favorite at home when it beat SMU 35-22 last season. They certainly haven't forgotten their last trip here to Gerald J. Ford Stadium either as two years ago saw SMU record its first win over a ranked opponent at home in five years w/ a resounding 38-16 triumph. A key here w/ UH laying so many points is that they have a defense that gives up 480 yards per game and who knows if DE Ed Oliver will be held out again. Look for the Mustangs to score enough to hang around and stay inside the number. 8* SMU |
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11-03-18 | Tulane +7.5 v. South Florida | Top | 41-15 | Win | 100 | 50 h 52 m | Show |
10* Tulane (3:30 ET): I will continue to play against South Florida as they may have the most misleading record in the entire country right now. I've been saying it for weeks (months?) now and it finally came to fruition last week as the Bulls were blown out at Houston, losing 57-36. It was USF's first loss of the year, but by no means their first shaky - or even poor - performance. In my analysis last week, I noted that I didn't even have USF ranked among my top 80 teams in the country! So the fact they were Top 25 was quite laughable to me. Despite taking the loss, this is still a team overvalued in the marketplace because of its record. This will be the fourth consecutive game I play against the Bulls - and fifth time overall this season. I expect to be 5-0 ATS by the time Saturday night rolls around. The first time I played against USF this year was when they hosted East Carolina on Sept 24th. They were on the heels of two narrow, come from behind victories over Georgia Tech and Illinois the previous two weeks. Somehow - despite ECU having a 24-9 edge in first downs - USF was able to sneak by the Pirates, 20-13. But they did not cover as 22-pt chalk. Nor did they cover the second time I faded them, a weeknight game at Tulsa, which required another late comeback. Tulsa and Illinois are a combined 4-12 SU, yet USF trailed both by two scores in the 4th quarter. The next week, I took a big number w/ UConn (+33) and USF never even came close to covering that, winning only 38-30 against one of the worst teams in the entire country. Then came last week's loss to Houston where the defense surrendered 57 pts and nearly 700 total yards. It was the 3rd game this year that USF has been outgained by at least 150 total yards. They've been down at the end of the 1st quarter in six of their eight games. Tulane comes in at 3-5 SU overall and will need to win three of its final four games to be bowl eligible. Considering a road date w/ Houston looms, the Green Wave probably need to win this game. They've won 4 and 5 games in two years under HC Willie Fritz, last year getting denied a sixth win in the final regular season game when they were stopped at the goal line on the final play. The key here for them is a change at QB where LSU transfer Justin McMillan has replaced senior Jonathan Banks. McMillan averaged nearly 10.0 yards per carry last week in a 24-17 win at Tulsa where the offense gained 312 yards on the ground. They also gained 300+ yards rushing earlier in the year in an upset of Memphis. Over the L3 wks, USF's defense has allowed 220, 322 (to UConn!) and 263 yds rushing. 10* Tulane |
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11-03-18 | Kansas State v. TCU -8 | Top | 13-14 | Loss | -106 | 50 h 47 m | Show |
10* TCU (3:30 ET): The Horned Frogs are off one of the more embarrassing defeats of the Gary Patterson era as they fell to Kansas last week, 27-26 as 13.5-pt favorites. They "should have" won; note a near +200 edge in total yards and the fact they fumbled on the KU six-yard line in the final minute. But still, that's no excuse to lose to a team that had dropped its previous 38 October games! Shockingly, TCU has won just one of its last six games, but two of the last three losses coming by a field goal or less. They've also had to take on both Ohio State and Oklahoma this year and they played the former very tough in what was a neutral site game. Last week "should have" been the Horned Frogs' easiest game of the year, instead it was their most embarrassing. I'll now call for their "best" performance to date as they're back home to face Kansas State. Lay the points. Kansas State did pull an upset a few weeks ago over Oklahoma State, but did so at home. This is simply not one of Bill Snyder's better teams. Coming off the upset of OSU and a bye, the Wildcats were trounced last week down in Oklahoma, 51-14. Certainly, no one gave them a real shot of beating the Sooners, but they were completely dominated. OU outgained them 702-245 for the game and led 48-7 heading into the fourth quarter. Kansas State is 0-3 on the road this season w/ two of the losses coming by at least 29 points. Next week, they host rival Kansas, which may be what the coaching staff is more focused on right now. TCU has been upset three times already this year, so their coaching staff isn't looking past anybody at this point. Facing a backup QB last year, the TCU defense held Kansas State to a season-low 216 yards and won 26-6. Now neither team is as good as they were in 2017, but I think it's instructive to note the Horned Frogs were six-point chalk LY in Manhattan and now barely more than that here in Ft. Worth. The Frogs have performed shockingly poor at home ATS the L3 seasons (just 2-15!), but this line is a bargain. Despite the three-game losing skid, TCU is still 38-15 SU off a loss under HC Patterson and has NEVER dropped four in a row during his tenure. Last week saw them average 7.0 yards per play while allowing only 4.6. Had they not lost that game to Kansas, we're probably looking at a double digit line here. Good value. QB Michael Collins, only starting because of an injury to Shawn Robinson, threw for 351 yards last week and Kansas State's secondary is suspect to say the least. 10* TCU |
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11-02-18 | Colorado +3.5 v. Arizona | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 46 m | Show |
8* Colorado (10:30 ET): When "unpacking" this College Football season, you may not find a more shocking result than what happened last week between Colorado and Oregon State. It's not that the Buffs lost per se, although losing to team that was 0-22 its previous 22 road games is pretty embarrassing. It's HOW they lost. They actually led 31-3 midway through the third quarter, which is when the wheels began to come off. Oregon State put together a 24-point fourth quarter to send the game into OT and won 41-38 as 26-pt underdogs. Colorado had more total yards, but failed to put the game away by missing field goals and turning it over on downs. Needless to say, a Buffaloes team that was once 5-0 SU (now 5-3) should be plenty motivated in the desert Friday night. Meanwhile, Arizona is off its biggest win of the season. I'm proud to say that I was on it as the Wildcats treated me to a 44-15 upset of #19 Oregon late last Saturday night. Key was not just the return of QB Khalil Tate, but also three Oregon turnovers. I have to say that, even as someone who was holding a ticket on the Wildcats, it was pretty shocking how easily dominated the Ducks. After all, this is a team that had been blown out twice this year (at Houston, at Utah) and also had lost twice at home (BYU, USC). They entered that Oregon game off B2B losses, having even dropped a one-point game to lowly 2-6 UCLA. I think it's important we don't overreact too much to one great performance from the Wildcats. This game is very important for both teams' bowl eligibility. Being bowl eligible once seemed like a formality for Colorado, but not anymore as they've dropped three straight. Make no mistake about it; they "should have" won last week. Arizona has won five of the previous six meetings, including 45-42 LY in Boulder, which is when Tate came onto the scene and set a FBS rushing record for QB's w/ 327 (!) yards. The road team has won three straight in this Pac 12 rivalry and I can't help but think Colorado is the value play here coming off a loss while Arizona simply is not as good as it looked last week. 8* Colorado |
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11-02-18 | Pittsburgh +7.5 v. Virginia | Top | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (7:30 ET): So I decided to take a "second look" at this game this morning and have come to the conclusion that I can't see Virginia winning by more than one score. We have two hot ACC teams here, both on three-game ATS win streaks. Pitt did lose once SU during that span, but that was by only five points at Notre Dame. It feels like the Panthers are still being unfairly weighed down by a bit of a rough start to the season. Similarly, it feels as if Virginia is being overvalued on the heels of a three-game win streak. I'm taking the points here in what feels like an even matchup. The biggest concern I have w/ Pitt here is they are 0-3 on the road. Their offense simply hasn't performed as well as it has at home, but let's be fair and note two of their road games came against teams that are still unbeaten, UCF and Notre Dame. The other was a three-point loss (to North Carolina) where they scored 35 points. Last week saw them roll up a season-high 634 yards (484 on the ground) and 54 points in a win over a very good Duke team. Note the final score of 54-45 is a little misleading as the Panthers scored the go-ahead TD and a safety in the final five seconds. Still, it's going to be very difficult for Virginia to outscore this team, especially by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here. UVA has lost only two games this year, both on the road (Indiana, NC State). They're a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS here in Charlottesville, but that record has clearly inflated this line. It's interesting to see Pitt basically getting the same number as UNC did last week. Yes, UNC beat Pitt, but the Panthers were still favored to win that game in Chapel Hill. Virginia is now ranked, another influence on the line. I don't think for one second that the Cavaliers are one of the top 25 teams in the country. They've lost to Pitt three straight times, including 31-14 last year. Whomever wins this game will be in first place in the ACC Coastal, so it's not like Pitt won't be highly motivated. The Panthers are 4-2 ATS as underdogs this year, winning three of those games outright. 8* Pittsburgh |
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11-01-18 | Raiders +3 v. 49ers | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -125 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
8* Oakland (8:20 ET): What a terrible Thursday night matchup this is. We have the 1-6 Raiders, clearly going through an .. ahem .. "transitional" phase under HC Jon Gruden. Then there's 1-7 49ers, who are as decimated by injury as any team in the league. While they're by no means playing "well," my view is that Oakland is the better team here and their issues are more correctable. San Francisco's season basically ended when QB Jimmy Garoppolo went down w/ an ACL injury. Backup CJ Beathard certainly wasn't capable of saving things, especially w/ an injury riddled supporting cast. Now Beathard is hurt too and may not be able to play Thursday. That means it could be third string QB Nick Mullens making his first career start. Yikes. The Raiders actually led at the half in each of the first three games, only to lose every time, before finally picking up a win (in overtime) at the Browns' expense. Since that win, things have not gone well w/ three straight double digit losses, another Gruden trade and reports of malcontent in the locker room. The fact of the matter is that the Khalil Mack trade (right before the start of the reg season) set an ominous tone. But the team has actually played well in spots for Gruden. Not against the Chargers or the Seahawks in London, mind you, but last week they led Indianapolis into the fourth quarter. QB Derek Carr certainly played well, accounting for 4 TD passes. Carr is completing 72% of his passes this season. Carr will certainly be better than whomever the 49ers trot out at the QB position. Beathard injured his thumb in Sunday's 18-15 loss to Arizona. Note that Cardinals team has two wins in 2018 and both were at the 49ers' expense. Mullens has never taken a NFL regular season snap and things are so dire here that the team has signed Tom Savage to be a backup! Right now, San Francisco is as talent bereft as any team in the league. As bad as things have been for the Raiders, they've actually only been favored in one game and that was the one they won against Cleveland. So it's not like they're falling short of oddsmakers' expectations. They're underdogs again this week, but the 49ers are simply not a team that deserves to be favored at this point. 8* Oakland |
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11-01-18 | Kings v. Hawks +2 | Top | 146-115 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Improbably, the Kings have won four straight - all as underdogs. I was willing to bet that streak would end at three, but was wrong as they downed Orlando on Tuesday, 107-99 as 4.5-pt road dogs. Over the past three seasons, this is just the third time that Sacramento has won more than three straight games. Tonight, they look to continue the streak, but have a couple things clearly working against them. One is that this will be their third road game in four nights. Two, for the first time all season, they find themselves favored. That's problematic considering they have lost 11 straight times in Atlanta and are just 4-16 ATS in their last 20 visits here. Last season, the Kings were road faves all of four times and didn't cover once (0-3-1 ATS). Atlanta, like Sacramento, is a young team that no one expected much from in 2018-19. Ten players on this Hawks' roster have two or less years of NBA experience. Take away Vince Carter and the average age of the roster drops pretty significantly. As is the case w/ many young teams, the Hawks are currently going through some growing pains. They've lost three in a row, including a bad 136-114 decision at previously winless Cleveland Tuesday night. The Hawks are just 2-5 SU and ATS overall, however they've had to play the majority of their games on the road. Rookie Trae Young has been as good as advertised, leading the team in both points (19.1 per game) and assists (6.6 per game). Teams that are seldom favored often make for good fades when in the chalk role. Just ask Atlanta. The lone time the Hawks were favored to win a game this year, I played against them. That was Saturday vs. Chicago and sure enough, they lost outright 97-85. I think the scheduling catches up w/ the Kings here as does the inevitability that they've been overachieving of late. 8* Atlanta |
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11-01-18 | Northern Illinois v. Akron +6.5 | Top | 36-26 | Loss | -125 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
10* Akron (7:00 ET): Northern Illinois enters the week at 5-3 overall. They are the only MAC West team w/o a loss (4-0) in conference play and they've won four in a row overall. So they are your current leaders in the division and on pace to play in the Conference Title Game. However, looks can be deceiving. This is not the normal dominant team out of DeKalb; in fact they've been outgained and outscored on the year despite the winning record. Last week was an all-time ugly 7-6 win over BYU where they gained only 204 total yds and 11 first downs. They had just 84 total yds in the second half, 65 of those coming on their one TD drive that saw them convert three third downs, one via penalty. I'll get more into it later, but I want no part of laying pts w/ this Huskies team on the road. Akron has won B2B games, keeping its hopes of bowl eligibility alive. The Zips did win the MAC East a year ago, though they were pretty clearly NOT the division's best team. However, the key was beating both Buffalo and Ohio here at Infocision Stadium. The Zips are 7-2 SU overall at home the L2 years, one of those losses coming this year in a game where they turned it over five times. The other was to an Iowa State team that won 8 games LY. On Saturday, they beat Central Michigan here, 17-10 as four-point chalk. They did so despite losing the turnover battle by three (led 17-0 at halftime). Assuming they can take better care of the football here, Akron is more than capable of pulling the outright upset. This will be the 1st time they've been a home dog in 2018. This is a team that won at Northwestern earlier in the year and also covered against Iowa State in Ames. All three Northern Illinois losses this year have come by double digits. All five wins have been by eight points or less, including three by three points or less. So that plays a significant role in me wanting to fade them in the role of road favorite. The Huskies have not had to make the trip to Akron since 2012. Akron's last win over NIU was 2005 so they'll be motivated. The Northern Illinois offense is averaging just 17.1 PPG and 4.0 yards per play. They have yet to score more than 26 pts in any game. In what is projected to be a very low scoring game (check that total!), I'll gladly take the points w/ the home team in this Thursday night matchup. 10* Akron |
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10-31-18 | Ball State v. Toledo -17 | Top | 13-45 | Win | 100 | 51 h 53 m | Show |
10* Toledo (7:30 ET): It looks as if I may have been a week early on the Toledo resurgence. Two weeks ago, I took the Rockets (as they were a rare home dog) and unfortunately, they came up short for me in a 31-17 loss to Buffalo (who has been the MAC's best team this year). But last week finally saw the Rockets blast off w/ a dominant 51-24 win at Western Michigan. They totaled over 500 yards of offense in the contest and did not commit a single turnover, a far cry from four giveaways they had vs. Buffalo. This is the first time in eight years that Toledo has four losses in its first eight games and lost two out of its first four conference games. An ATS resurgence should also be on the way as they've produced a winning record for bettors seven of the last eight years as well. Back at the Glass Bowl, I expect them to win big Wednesday night. Ball State is not a very good team. Let's use that statement as our starting point. The Cardinals are just 3-6 SU w/ one win coming against a FCS school and another by one point at Central Michigan. Last week saw their defense get run over to the tune of 411 yards rushing by Ohio in a 52-14 beatdown. It was a 52-7 game heading into the fourth quarter w/ BSU giving up all those points in just two quarters of play! As you might expect, the Cardinals' defensive numbers are pretty horrific overall as they've allowed 94 pts total the L2 games. They're not too much better on offense where they are averaging just 16.0 PPG on the road. Even worse is that they're now going to be w/o starting QB Riley Neal after he suffered a knee injury in the loss to Ohio. Toledo is also dealing with an injury at the QB position as starter Mitchell Guadagni is questionable to play after exiting the Western Michigan game w/ a shoulder injury. But there are two reasons as to why the Rockets are far better equipped to deal w/ their QB injury than is Ball State. One is that backup Eli Peters has already started two games this season and he also threw three second half TD passes last week. The other is no matter who the QB is, they can rely on a run game that has gone for 225+ yards three of the last four games. Toledo should move the ball at ease in this game (again, regardless of who is playing QB) and, by the way, Ball State will probably be w/o its leading tackler (Jacob White, who was also injured in the Ohio game) and leading rusher James Gilbert is questionable as well. 10* Toledo |
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10-30-18 | Kent State +1 v. Bowling Green | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
8* Kent State (8:00 ET): Bluntly speaking, there are many matchups of terrible teams on this week's CFB slate (UTEP-Rice definitely taking the cake). This one is definitely the first. Kent State and Bowling Green are both 0-4 in MAC play and 1-7 overall. Both can also be counted among my bottom 10 teams in the entire country. That said, Kent State is obviously the better team here, a fact that should be obvious by the fact Bowling Green isn't even laying the standard three points here at home. Further illustrating the Falcons' futility is the fact that they have been outscored by 22.1 points per game this season. Kent State is by no means a "good team," but they are only -12.0 PPG. This is easily the best chance for both teams to pick up a conference win this year and I think the Golden Flashes get it. Kent State has actually had a couple of close losses in the L3 wks, both times outgaining their opponent. One came 10 days ago, their last game, against rival Akron. It was a very minor edge they had in total yards (371-362) and the game went into overtime. In OT, the Golden Flashes elected to go for two and the win after scoring a touchdown. They obviously failed. Two weeks prior, they led Ohio virtually the entire way (by as many as 14 pts), but gave up the lead with just under 90 seconds remaining. So they've at least come close to winning a couple of MAC games. They also played Illinois tough in the season opener, losing by just a touchdown on the road. I had them in a cover at Ole Miss earlier in the year as well. Like Kent State, BG's only win came against a FCS team. Kent State beat Howard while Bowling Green beat Eastern Kentucky. But let's now focus on the clear differences. Kent State blew out their FCS opponent, 54-14. Bowling Green barely beat theirs, only winning by a touchdown. They were even down by two touchdowns early and outgained for the game! Another difference is the Falcons have never come close to beating a MAC opponent. The closest they came was a touchdown. The other three losses have all been by 15+ or more. They have already fired their coach (Mike Jinks), making this a "lost season." Neither team has a very good defense, but the Golden Flashes have been slightly better on that side of the ball, particularly in the red zone. That's pretty much the story of these two teams as Kent State is simply slightly better in all facets. They also have revenge for five straight losses in the series. 8* Kent State |
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10-30-18 | Kings v. Magic -4 | Top | 107-99 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): Can Sacramento really pull a fourth consecutive outright upset, tonight? I'm willing to bet that the answer is "no." Last night, the Kings went to Miami and upset the Heat, 123-113 as nine-point dogs. Like I alluded to, it was their third straight outright win as a dog. The previous two were at home and saw them beat Memphis 97-92 (as a 3-pt dog) and Washington 116-112 (as a 5-pt dog). Tonight, they are a pretty short dog in Orlando. I get that the Magic have dropped four of five and aren't exactly inspiring as home favorites (were 2-10-1 ATS in that role LY). But they are well rested (two days off) while the Kings are playing the second game of a back to back. Sacramento is also 1-13 SU/2-12 ATS when coming off a double-digit win the L3 seasons. Orlando should play a lot better here than what we saw from them on Saturday in Milwaukee. There, they lost 113-91 while shooting only 32.7% from the field. But that was on the road and against an unbeaten team. The Magic have actually taken on a pretty challenging schedule in the early going, facing the Sixers, Celtics, Blazers and Bucks in the last four games and three of those (not the Blazers) were on the road. Tonight will be the 1st time all season that they are favored and they have previously pulled upsets over both the Heat and Celtics. I see them playing their "best game" of the season tonight. While you have to hand it to Sacramento for winning three straight, a lot of history is against them tonight. For starters, they are just 1-3 ATS the L3 seasons when on a win streak of three or more games. They have only two win streaks of more than three games during that time. Playing w/o rest has been unkind to this team as well as they are just 12-24 SU in the second game of a back to back. They did win one earlier this year, vs. Memphis, but that was also at home. This is the second of back to back road games. It just seems like a logical spot for them to fall. 10* Orlando |
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10-29-18 | Patriots v. Bills +14 | Top | 25-6 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (8:20 ET): This is a real "hold your nose and take the points" type situation. But before you go and write off this Bills chances here, be aware that they weren't as bad as the final score showed last week vs. Indianapolis. Total yardage was only -73 and the offense gained a strong 5.51 yards per play. The problem was five turnovers. As long of a season as it's been in upstate NY, the Bills still are fielding the fourth best defense in the league. This would be just the 4th time in the history of MNF that a home team is an underdog of 14 points. The three previous teams have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS. I think that defense can keep them in this one, even w/ Derek Anderson back at QB. New England seems to be humming along again after a 1-2 SU start. They've won four straight. But they've also given up a total of 71 pts the last two weeks. Now those games came against two quality foes, including Kansas City. But note that LW's game at Chicago was somewhat of a struggle. They needed TWO special teams TDs and a Hail Mary stop at the goal line on the game's final play. The road hasn't been that kind to the Patriots this season as LW was their 1st win after a pair of double digit losses. Something else to note is that they've committed at least one turnover in every game this season. Buffalo hasn't won a MNF game since 1999. They haven't won a MNF home game since '94! So, despite being seemingly outgunned and outmanned, expect a spirited atmosphere and motivated underdog. As ugly a season debut as it was last week, Derek Anderson's 175 yards passing were actually the team's most in four weeks. I think the potential loss of LeSean McCoy is somewhat overblown considering the tandem of Chris Ivory and Marcus Murphy combined to average 6.1 yards per carry last week. Since 2012, as a double digit road favorite, the Patriots are just 1-4-1 ATS w/ two outright losses. The Bills have been a DD home dog only three times in the last 30 years and have covered twice. No matter the teams, my view will almost always be that this is too many points to lay on the road. 10* Buffalo |
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10-29-18 | Blazers v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 103-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:05 ET): This is a pretty interesting Monday night matchup in NBA. Both teams fancy themselves as legit contenders in their respective conference, more so than the public probably does. Both are off to decent starts. Portland is 3-2 SU w/ one of its losses coming by a single point in overtime. All five of their games have gone Over the total. Indiana is 4-2 SU and just won B2B games on the road, both by double digits. They're a short favorite here at home tonight and I'll lay the number considering the Blazers are playing a third road game in five nights. The Pacers also have double revenge from last season when they lost both meetings. Indiana beating Cleveland rather convincingly might not seem all too impressive considering the Cavs' winless record. But note it was still a road game for the Pacers, who were outrebounded and w/o sixth man Tyreke Evans (who is averaging 12.5 PPG). Still, led by Victor Oladipo's 24 pts, six Pacers finished the game in double figures (including all five starters) and the team shot a blistering 64.9% overall from the floor! That probably speaks to how bad Cleveland is defensively, but I still think it's impressive the Pacers could win a game by double digits on the road despite there being some obvious areas for improvement (like FT shooting). Evans will be back in the lineup tonight. Indiana is also 2-0 at home so far, having won both games by 20+ points. Portland is not that great defensively (giving up 117.2 PPG), so it could be another big night for Indiana offensively. While they rallied to take the lead in the fourth quarter Saturday night, the Blazers actually trailed by as many as 19 down in Miami. This is a team that has given up 108 or more points in regulation in every game this season. They've allowed 114 or more in all but one game. Look for an Indiana team that's actually playing some defense (102.8 PPG allowed) to exploit this. Both teams are top six so far in offensive efficiency, but the key is that the Pacers are also top five on the defensive end. They're at home and have covered all three times they've been favored so far this year. 10* Indiana |
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10-28-18 | Jazz -4 v. Mavs | Top | 113-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
8* Utah (7:05 ET): After an impressive 132-111 win last night in New Orleans, the Jazz are a perfect 3-0 on the road. It's too bad then that they're 0-2 SU at home or we'd be talking about them living up to the preseason hype. Many, myself among them, feel this team is destined to finish #2 in the West (behind the Warriors). Last night was definitely a step in the right direction as they hung 132 on an unbeaten Pelicans squad. Tonight's game should be pretty easy as well. Lay the points. Dallas is the exact opposite of the Jazz as they're 2-0 at home, but 0-3 on the road. They're off B2B losses in Atlanta and Toronto, though they were able to at least cover in the latter. But that came as 11-pt underdogs. Save for the Raptors, it's not exactly been a challenging slate of opponents for the Mavs. They have also faced the Suns, T'wolves, Bulls and Hawks, four bad teams. The biggest problems has been poor shooting as they are at just 43.9% overall and that would be even lower if not for the 140-pt game (shot 50%) against Minnesota. What makes this an ideal matchup for Utah is they have held three straight opponents below 43% shooting. They projected as the best defensive team in the league before the year started. They were #2 in defensive efficiency last season. Remember that Dallas was one of only two teams that did NOT average 100 PPG LY. The Mavs are also letting their opponents shoot 48% from three-point range, the worst mark in the league. Utah is off its best offensive game of the year last night and that should carry over. 8* Utah |
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10-28-18 | Colts v. Raiders +3 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -100 | 90 h 37 m | Show |
8* Oakland (4:05 ET): Needless to say, the Raiders are officially at "rock bottom." Reports of discontent are rampant with anonymous players questioning the leadership of both HC Jon Gruden and QB Derek Carr. The team is 1-5 SU w/ its only win coming in overtime against Cleveland, a game in which they trailed by two touchdowns in the second half. Two weeks ago, they were humiliated over in London in a 27-3 loss to the Seahawks (just 185 total yds). The Khalil Mack trade was obviously highly questionable in retrospect and now Gruden has chosen to deal top receiver Amari Cooper. But the Silver and Black are off a bye, which came at an opportune time I think. As bad as things have been, I don't think Oakland should be a home dog to the Colts. Take the points. Indianapolis is off a win, a rarity, and it was easily their most impressive showing to date. Of course, it helped playing Buffalo, who was starting its third QB of the year (Derek Anderson), just signed off the street. Going inside the numbers reveals the Colts may not have been as dominant as you think. They only had a +73 edge in total yards, enough to justify a win, but certainly not indicative of the final margin of victory. The key was being +5 in turnovers, which is a margin that will almost always guarantee victory. The Colts' often leaky defense still permitted 5.5 yards per play. Of course, they entered the game ranked 30th in total defense. As bleak as things may look in Oakland right now (no Marshawn Lynch!), things can't get any worse. Indianapolis being a road favorite seems like a case of putting the "cart before the horse" as it's a role they haven't found themselves but one time since 2015. My numbers still indicate the Raiders should be favored here. One player that could still make a difference is TE Jared Cook. The Colts defense is giving up 8.4 yards per attempt to tight ends this year. This is one of those times you just have to "hold your nose" and take advantage of the public's poor perception of the Raiders right now. The numbers say we're getting a good value. 8* Oakland |
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10-28-18 | Seahawks +3 v. Lions | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 122 h 7 m | Show |
10* Seattle (1:00 ET): I see the better team getting points in this one AND the Seahawks are off a bye. Sounds like a good play to me. Early on in the season, it appeared as if Seattle could be headed toward a rebuilding year as they started out w/ road losses to Denver and Chicago. But both of those were one-score games and ever since, they've won three of four w/ the only loss coming by two points to the undefeated Rams. Interestingly enough, it's been a somewhat similar story for the Lions, who also opened 0-2, including that embarrassing performance on MNF against the Jets. But they too have won three of four, not to mention covered five straight. They had the benefit of the bye last week, but this week the tables will be turned. Take the points. The last time we saw Seattle, they turned in their most impressive performance of the year, blowing out Oakland over in London by a score of 27-3. It was a total blowout from start to finish w/ the defense holding the Raiders to 185 total yards. So much for this group taking a step back in the post Legion of Boom era. In each win, they've allowed 17 pts or fewer. Now, off the bye, LB K.J. Wright is set to make a season debut. On the offensive side of the ball, so too is tight end Ed Dickson, who will be a nice target for Russell Wilson. But the real key to this game probably resides at the line of scrimmage. Whichever team runs the ball better is probably going to win. Obviously, you've figured out by now that I think that's going to be Seattle. Detroit's defense is simply not very good, against the run or the pass. They are allowing 5.7 yards per carry, which should mean a big day for the Seahawks RB group of Chris Carson, Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny. As for the passing game, the Lions were shredded three weeks ago by Aaron Rodgers. That was actually a very lucky win as the Packers outgained them 521-264, but were -3 in turnovers. When coming off back to back wins, the Lions are just 5-5 SU and 3-6-1 ATS the L3 seasons. I look for their SU - and ATS - win streaks to come to an end here. 10* Seattle |
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10-28-18 | Browns v. Steelers -8 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 122 h 7 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): The Browns have not fared well against the Steelers returning to the league back in 1999, which honestly is par for the course for this franchise's miserable second existence. Just six times they've beaten their rival and two of those wins came in the 1999 and 2000 seasons. So that means they are 4-31-1 their L36 meetings. Note the "1" at the end of that record. These teams tied back in Week 1 and I was on Cleveland, plus the points, which wound up being a relatively easy cover all things considered. But look at the value we're getting on the rested Steelers for this rematch. Whereas they were four-point favorites in Cleveland (and that line opened much higher), now they're only laying a little more than a touchdown at home. If Cleveland couldn't beat Pittsburgh at home back in Week 1, then I'm not sure when they'll beat them. Weather was terrible and the Browns were +5 in turnover margin in that 21-21 tie. If you can't win at home w/ a +5 TO margin, there's something seriously wrong. According to a widely circulated tweet after that game, "Since the Browns returned to the NFL, teams with a turnover margin of +5 or better in a game are 132-4-1. The Browns are responsible for two of those losses and the tie." The Browns should be thankful that they were +5 in TO's in that game, however, as they were outgained 472-327. It's very unlikely that they will benefit from such a TO margin again this week. It might rain again, but it'll take more than Mother Nature to stop the Steelers this time. Browns' fans will want to point to the fact that #1 overall DC Baker Mayfield was not yet the starting QB back in Week 1 (Tyrod Taylor). Again, Mayfield's presence alone is not enough to change the result. In fact, since leading his team to a win over the Jets in Week 3, I feel that Mayfield's play has gotten progressively WORSE. Something to keep in mind here is that rookie QB's are just 4-20 SU vs. the Steelers since 2004 and the Browns have not won at Heinz Field since '03. The Steelers are coming off a bye and ready to roll. Meanwhile, the Browns defense just played a season-high 95 snaps in last week's OT loss at Tampa Bay, which was already their FOURTH OT game of the season. 10* Pittsburgh |
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10-28-18 | Ravens -1 v. Panthers | Top | 21-36 | Loss | -120 | 86 h 28 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (1:00 ET): Many might be, but I am not surprised that the Ravens come in as a slight favorite here in Carolina. My numbers agree as despite the Panthers winning 16 of their last 23 games, they still grade out as a fairly average team. Last year, they were an extremely fortunate 7-2 SU in one-score games. They were 11-5 SU overall, but only outscored opponents by a meager 36 points, which is more indicative of a 9-win team. This year, the team is 4-2, but only +11 in point differential. They have two wins by four points or less and their only game decided by more than eight points was a win over Cincinnati where they finished +4 in turnovers. The Panthers have consistently proven to be more "lucky" than "good" and that was again the case last week as they made a stunning comeback (trailed 17-0 in 4Q) to beat the Super Bowl Champion Eagles on the road. Baltimore is 4-3 SU, but has only played one bad game all year, that being a Thursday night road game in Cincinnati. Last week was a brutal 1-pt home loss to New Orleans when usually sure-footed kicker Justin Tucker missed the potential game-tying XP. They also allowed 17 fourth quarter points last week to the Saints, highly irregular for them. I've said it before, but in a league where offense rules, the Ravens have attempted to be the exception to the rule. They've allowed 14 pts or less in five of seven games, the exceptions being the Thurs night game and last week vs. the high-powered Saints. This defense is #1 in the league in both scoring and yards allowed as well as sacks. I like the Ravens' chances of bouncing back from last week's tough defeat as they are a perfect 5-0 ATS off their previous five losses. Their previous loss was in overtime at Cleveland, a game their defense only allowed 12 points. They bounced back from that w/ a 21-0 shutout over the Titans. While the running the ball may be difficult against Carolina, expect QB Joe Flacco to find plenty of success through the air as the Panthers have already allowed 13 completions of 20+ yards, third most in the league. On the flip side, Carolina's run-heavy offense figures to have a lack of success against this Ravens' defense and that will be a problem. The Panthers are actually being outgained this year on a per play basis while Baltimore is +0.6, not to mention +106.4 YPG. 8* Baltimore |
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10-27-18 | Oregon v. Arizona +9.5 | Top | 15-44 | Win | 100 | 72 h 8 m | Show |
8* Arizona (10:30 ET): Oregon has played a pretty tough slate of Pac 12 opponents thus far and I can see them overlooking this game "after dark." We all recall the Ducks letting one slip away vs. Stanford last month, a game they pretty clearly should have won. But then they got a little lucky the next two games. Sure, winning at Cal 42-24 looks pretty convincing. But that had as much to do w/ being +5 in turnover margin as anything. Then came the big upset over Washington, 30-27 in Eugene. That game saw the Ducks outgained despite winning in overtime. Last week, "Lady Luck" caught up w/ them in what was a terrible spot up at Washington State. With ESPN in Pullman for the very 1st time, Oregon found themselves down 27-0 at the half. Playing a second straight road game does the Ducks no favors here and I'll take the points w/ Arizona. Year one of the Kevin Sumlin era in Tucson got off to quite the rocky start. Back to back losses to BYU and Houston opened the season, but ever since the Wildcats are a respectable 3-3 SU w/ two of those losses coming by four points or less. In fact, the team has three losses by five pts or less already this year. So save for Houston and Utah, both of which were road games, Sumlin's team has been competitive this year. I expect that to be the case again this week as they're not getting nearly enough respect as a home dog Saturday night. The big question mark will be QB as Khalil Tate is banged up and may not start. But Rhett Rodriguez (yes, the son of RichRod) seemed more than serviceable last week vs. UCLA as the offense gained 520 total yards. A real key to this game is who can win at the line of scrimmage. Arizona averages almost 200 yards rushing per game, but the Oregon defense is only giving up 3.23 yards per carry, which is top 20 in the country. Last year's meeting in Eugene did not go well for the Wildcats, but consider it was late in the season and they were playing for a lame duck HC (RichRod!). So the fact they lost by 20 doesn't really affect my handicapping of this game, one way or another. Arizona doesn't often get this many points here in Tucson and Oregon is just 3-10 SU and 3-9-1 ATS in road games the L3 seasons. As a road favorite, they are just 2-4 ATS w/ four outright defeats. 8* Arizona |
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10-27-18 | Hawaii v. Fresno State -24 | Top | 20-50 | Win | 100 | 72 h 3 m | Show |
8* Fresno State (10:30 ET): I believe Hawaii is a team whose unexpected early season success has begun to work against it. This was a 3-win team LY that was not projected to do well in 2018. Nevertheless, figuring there had to be "some" improvement, I took them plus a big number (+17) in the season opener at Colorado State. They shockingly won that game outright, 43-34. Little did we know at the time just how bad Colorado State would turn out to be. Even more shocking is that Hawaii would go on to win six of its first seven games overall, doubling last season's win total by the first weekend of October. Almost all of those wins came against really bad teams though and they also were fortunate to get Navy at home. Over the last two weeks, a bit of reality has set in w/ the Warriors dropping B2B games to BYU and Nevada by a combined 44 points. Fresno State may be one of the most underrated teams in the country. HC Jeff Tedford did one of the best jobs in America last season taking a team that had gone 1-11 SU the previous year and taking them to a 10-4 SU record w/ an appearance in the Mountain West Championship Game. Anyone expecting a dropoff in year 2 under Tedford seems to have been mistaken as the Bulldogs are now 6-1 SU themselves with every win coming in blowout fashion. They are outscoring opponents by more than 25 PPG and are also 6-1 ATS. That puts them at 16-3-2 ATS overall under Tedford, which has to be the best ATS record in the country over the last two years. The last three weeks have seen them outscore Nevada, Wyoming and New Mexico by a combined score of 86-13! While FSU is blowing everyone out (save for an early season loss at Minnesota), Hawaii's point differential is only +2.0 PPG w/ a very minor edge in yardage as well. So you can see why they're such a huge dog this week. I played against them late last Saturday when they were upset at home by Nevada, a team FSU beat 21-3 on the road. Hawaii is far less dangerous off the Island as you probably know. When I played against them earlier in the year at San Jose State (my *10* Game of the Month for September), I noted that they were only 6-32 SU in road games dating back to 2012. Well, they won that game, but never came close to covering as it was a 5OT affair. The Warriors are now 7-33 SU their L40 road games after getting blown out at BYU two weeks ago. This one has blowout written all over it as well. 8* Fresno State |
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10-27-18 | Bulls +5.5 v. Hawks | Top | 97-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
8* Chicago (7:35 ET): Personally, I don't think Atlanta should be favored by this many points against anybody. Even though they've won B2B games, I still have the Hawks as the lowest rated team in my own personal power ratings. Chicago is right ahead of them, so the spread here should be nothing more than the token three points for homecourt advantage. I realize the Bulls are in the second night of a back to back, and without multiple players, but this is a good value and I have them at least covering the spread. The Hawks two upsets have come at the expense of Cleveland and Dallas, two teams that aren't exactly world-beaters. Cleveland is still winless (only team in Eastern Conference w/o a win), so beating them isn't all that impressive and the Dallas win saw them down 26 points at one juncture. That was here at home and had they not shockingly come back to win, I think we'd be viewing them in a much different light coming into this game. As far as them being favored here, that happened only 12 times all of last season. Never were they asked to lay this many points and there were only two times they were favored by more than three points. I have to see more from them before we start calling them "improved." The Bulls are just 1-4 overall and 0-3 on the road. But two of their losses have been by six points or less. Last night was an ugly showing in Charlotte as they gave up a season-high 135 points. That caused HC Fred Hoiberg to quip "I know we are throwing a lot of makeshift lines out there, but it is not an excuse to not go out there and play hard." While w/o Kris Dunn, Lauri Markkanen, Denzel Valentine and Bobby Portis, the Bulls still have Zach LaVine, who is averaging 32.5 points per game. Tonight is also a homecoming for top draft pick Wendell Carter, Jr, who I expect to play well. Take the points. 8* Chicago |
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10-27-18 | Washington State v. Stanford -3 | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -103 | 104 h 16 m | Show |
10* Stanford (7:00 ET): Washington State remains the nation's lone remaining unbeaten team against the spread. They are 7-0 ATS and coming off their biggest win of the year, 34-20 over Oregon LW in Pullman. But in many ways, that was the most ideal setup for Wazzu. They were off a bye and had the added emotion of ESPN's College GameDay coming to their campus for the very first time. This week shapes up as a pretty clear letdown spot to me as it will be their toughest road game to date. I know Stanford has been somewhat of a disappointment thus far and was pretty fortunate to beat Arizona State last week. But even if they don't have RB Bryce Love at 100%, they've had two extra days to prepare for this game and it's a short number to lay at home. Stanford was outgained last week in Tempe, 437-358, but was +3 in turnovers. One of those three TO's turned the game and it came at the end of the first half w/ the game tied 3-3. Arizona State was driving, but attempted a trick play that was intercepted. Stanford drove down to kick a FG and never trailed again. In fact, they were up 20-6 heading into the 4th quarter. This despite Love, clearly bothered an injured ankle, gaining only 21 yards on 11 carries. He didn't even play in the second half. Love being healthy would be a nice added bonus this week, but not a prerequisite to victory. Even w/ his worst game of the season LY coming against the Cougars, the Cardinal still only lost by three up in Pullman. They actually have double revenge coming into this game after winning the eight previous matchups. While this will be Washington State's fourth road game of the season, they lost one to USC and the other two were against Wyoming and Oregon State, two bad teams. I concede that the defense has gotten a lot better under Mike Leach, something I never thought I would say, but they did give up 37 to Oregon State and 39 to USC. The numbers say Stanford's defense is pretty susceptible to the pass, but at home they are giving up just 15.7 PPG and they've allowed only seven passing touchdowns all season. If you ask me, Wazzu is due to not cover a game and coming off one of the most emotional victories in program history seems like an opportune time for that to happen. 10* Stanford |
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10-27-18 | South Florida v. Houston -7 | Top | 36-57 | Win | 100 | 65 h 4 m | Show |
10* Houston (3:30 ET): This isn't the first time I've targeted South Florida and even if they were to lose here, it may not be the last. Easily the weakest of the six remaining unbeatens in College Football, USF is living on "borrowed time." Let's start w/ the fact they have trailed at the end of the first quarter in five of their seven games so far. They trailed in the fourth quarter against both Illinois and Tulsa - two teams w/ a combined 4-10 SU record - by two scores each. Georgia Tech and East Carolina both outgained the Bulls by 150+ yards. USF was able to beat Ga Tech w/ two kick returns for touchdowns. They were somehow able to beat East Carolina despite a 24-9 first down deficit. Then came last week's "blah" 38-30 win over UConn, who was a 33-pt underdog. Believe it or not, but this will be just the second time USF has been an underdog this season. (The other was vs. Ga Tech). It will be the first time they've had to face an opponent w/ a winning record! I've noted this previously, but it's a borderline joke that USF is even ranked in the top 25. For the sake of reference, I don't even have them in my top 80! To put things in further perspective, this is the first time EVER that an unbeaten team that's 7-0 SU or better is more than a field goal underdog to an unranked opponent. Furthermore, Houston has had USF's number the last couple years, including a 28-24 win in Tampa LY as 10-pt dogs. USF came into that game ranked (#17) and 7-0 SU as well and you saw what happened. This year's team is nowhere near as strong. Houston likely won't have DL Ed Oliver, a top NFL prospect, for this game. But they will have QB D'Eriq King, who has a 23-3 TD-INT ratio. Last week, King directed an offense that gained 570 yards and scored 49 points despite just 17:27 TOP in a win over Navy, in Annapolis. Ironically, King reminds many of USF's former QB, Quinton Flowers. Unfortunately for the Bulls, Flowers' replacement (Blake Barnett) has throw just 10 TD passes and has seven interceptions. Note Houston is outscoring teams by 32.7 PPG here at home this season. They've lost just once, at Texas Tech, and have scored 41 or more points in every game. USF's unbeaten run comes to an emphatic end here. 10* Houston |
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10-27-18 | Texas Tech +3.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 31-40 | Loss | -112 | 62 h 35 m | Show |
8* Texas Tech (12:00 ET): I love the Red Raiders as an underdog in this spot as the line doesn't add up. Yes, Iowa State is at home and off a bye. And I had the Cyclones in their 30-14 upset over WVU two weeks ago, which was even more lopsided than the final score indicates. ISU has actually pulled B2B upsets as the week before WVU, they went to Stillwater and upset Oklahoma State 48-42 as 10-pt underdogs. I'm not surprised that the Cyclones are only 1-3 SU entering this game as I had them regressing before the season even started after they pulled four outright upsets LY en route to an 8-5 SU record. To me, this is a pick 'em type game and it should be mentioned the Red Raiders beat the same TCU team that beat ISU. They also beat another team off a bye last week, albeit it was Kansas. There are multiple factors that have me on the dog here. One is that for the 1st time in the history of the rivalry, Iowa State has beaten Texas Tech two years in row. Now, neither game was close and the last meeting here in Ames (2016) saw the Red Raiders handed their worst defeat in five years, 66-10 (and they were four-point favorites in that game!). Last year in Lubbock, ISU came in and pulled another upset, this time winning 31-13 as seven-point road dogs. I think it's important to mention here that the Cyclones are not often favored in conference play. The last time they were favored against someone other than Baylor or Kansas was 2014 against ... Texas Tech. They lost that game outright here at home. There is no denying that Iowa State has been a much better team since the change to Brock Purdy at QB. I noted as such in my analysis two weeks ago for the game vs. WVU. But last week saw Alan Bowman return to the field as Texas Tech's QB and the result was a 400+ yard passing day in a 48-16 blowout. I was very impressed w/ the way the Red Raiders were able to upset TCU w/o Bowman and a big reason for they did was a defense that is MUCH better than past years. In three Big 12 wins, the defense (returned 10 starters from LY) has allowed 17, 14 and 16 points. It's not too often we've been able to say this through the years, but do not be surprised if it is the Red Raiders' DEFENSE that leads them to pulling the upset this week. 8* Texas Tech |
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10-26-18 | Clippers v. Rockets -3 | Top | 133-113 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:05 ET): Even w/o James Harden, I'm rolling w/ the Rockets here as they are the clearly superior team compared to the Clippers. Now you might not think that given their 1-3 SU start to the season w/ one of the losses coming out in LA. But that first meeting w/ the Clippers was the second half of a back to back as the Rockets had just beaten the Lakers in a spirited contest the previous night. Even worse, a fight at the end of that game w/ the Lakers left PG Chris Paul suspended for two games. So the Rockets are not strangers to being down a superstar when facing these Clippers. The difference last time was the Clippers bench scoring 56 points. Even so, the Rockets still only lost by three on the road. Things will be different this time around. Paul was also suspended for Houston's last game, a 100-89 home loss to Utah. It's definitely been a challenging slate of games for the Rockets so far w/ Paul's suspension only compounding matters. But he'll be back in the lineup tonight, just in time to offset Harden's absence. Note that it was a tight game in the 4th quarter vs. Utah when Harden left w/ an apparent hamstring issue. The Jazz would go on to score the game's next 10 points and take control for good. I don't think much of Carmelo Anthony anymore, but he's here and had a season-high 22 points vs. Utah. With Harden out, expect him to be a bigger factor in the Rockets' offense. Certainly, having Paul and Anthony is enough to offset the loss of Harden. Note that Houston had only ONE losing streak of at least three games LY and it came around the X-Mas holiday. The Rockets shot only 40.2% from the field against the Jazz, who are one of the league's better defensive teams. Expect that shooting percentage to be way up tonight against the Clippers, who will be playing on the road for just the second time. Like Houston, LA got to know first hand what New Orleans is "all about" this season as they lost down in the Big Easy, 116-109, Tuesday night. The depth is there for HC Doc Rivers, but he wishes he had the "high end" talent Houston has. I look for the Rockets to be highly motivated in this early season revenge spot and I love the value we are getting due to the overreaction to the Harden injury. 10* Houston |
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10-26-18 | Indiana v. Minnesota +2.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 50 h 4 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:00 ET): Despite both being long-time members of the Big 10, Indiana and Minnesota don't play each other very regularly. In fact, Friday will mark just the second meeting since 2008! The last one came back in '13 and saw the Golden Gophers go to Bloomington and pull off a 42-39 upset of the Hoosiers, as 7.5-pt underdogs. That of course means very little for handicapping this year's installment. What we do know though is that conference play has not treated either of these teams well in 2018. They've gone a combined 1-7 straight up w/ the only win being IU's over Rutgers and even that was only by a touchdown. Coming off close loss to a top ranked team (like Indiana is) can be a worse situation than is coming off a blowout loss to a bad team (like Minnesota is). I like the home dog in this one. Minnesota is all too familiar w/ the situation their opponent is in this week. Two weeks ago, the Gophers had given it their all in a home loss to Ohio State that was a lot closer than the 30-14 final score indicates. So going on the road to face a winless Nebraska team should have been a nice bounce back spot. But it wasn't. They were instead humiliated in a 53-28 defeat w/ the defense giving up over 600 yards. PJ Fleck's defense is really struggling right now having allowed over 1100 yards the last two weeks. But I'm predicting this to be a bounce back spot at home. They opened this season by going 3-0 at home, allowing just 9 PPG. That was before a 48-31 loss to Iowa here at TCF Bank Stadium. I think Fleck and the coaching staff are going to treat this as the most important game of the season. So here we find Indiana off a tough 33-28 home loss to Penn State where they had a 554-417 edge in total yardage. Note they lost one of their two QB's in that game, freshman Michael Penix, to a season-ending ACL injury. So it will have to be Peyton Ramsey exclusively the rest of the way. Minnesota also has a potential injury at QB w/ Zack Annexstad. But the difference is they have an advantage in the sense that the Indiana defense doesn't know who to prepare for, Annexstad or redshirt freshman Tanner Morgan, who completed 11 of 16 attempts last week for 214 yards in the second half. I don't think Indiana deserves to be a road favorite, a role they are just 2-5 ATS in the L3 seasons. Minnesota is 5-2 SU/ATS the L7 games w/ a line of three points or less. 10* Minnesota |
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10-25-18 | Georgia Tech v. Virginia Tech -3 | Top | 49-28 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
8* Virginia Tech (7:30 ET): This is almost always an important game in the ACC Coastal. This year will be no different as Virginia Tech comes in as the only team in the division still w/o a loss. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, is quickly bordering on being irrelevant. They're 1-3 SU in the ACC after losing two weeks ago at home to Duke, a game where I played against them. You'd think that record would have the Yellow Jackets as the more motivated side this week, but that may very well not be the case considering the Hokies are at home and will be looking to exact a case of double revenge (lost L2 yrs to Ga Tech). The Yellow Jackets have actually won each of their last two trips into Blacksburg, as a 7 and 14-pt underdog no less, but this is a Thursday night game at Lane Stadium. Rumors about HC Paul Johnson's future in Atlanta does his team no favors here. Virginia Tech's bye probably came at a good time. They'd lost here at home to Notre Dame three weeks ago and were probably lucky to win at North Carolina in their most recent game. They were outgained 522-375 in Chapel Hill, yet were still able to rally from a 13-pt second half deficit to win 22-19. The game-winning TD came w/ just 19 seconds left. Of course, the Hokies may never be able to live down their loss at Old Dominion earlier in the season, but I will point out they handily beat the same Duke team that beat Ga Tech, 31-14 on the road, and were basically dead even in total yardage w/ Notre Dame. Remember the Hokies are playing w/o QB Josh Jackson, so the bye was also handy in that regard as it allowed for backup Ryan Willis to get more practice time. Another reason the bye is handy is that it gives the Hokies' defense extra time to prepare for Georgia Tech's vaunted triple option. When I played on Duke against Georgia Tech two weeks ago, I noted that the Blue Devils (who were also off bye) had a decided edge. Sure enough, they held the Yellow Jackets to only 3.75 yards per rush. I think we can all agree that the best move Va Tech HC Justin Fuente ever did was to retain the longtime defensive coordinator of his predecessor, Frank Beamer. That would be Bud Foster, who has presided over a number of top defenses during his time in Blacksburg. This particular Hokies' defense has held four of its six opponents under 20 pts. Georgia Tech has just one win over a Power 5 team this year. It was Louisville, who has pretty much quit on the season, on a short week. Lay the short number. 8* Virginia Tech |
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10-24-18 | Grizzlies v. Kings +3 | Top | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
8* Sacramento (10:05 ET): Because they find themselves playing in the second night of a back to back, the Kings are better than expected value tonight as they return home to host the Grizzlies. The Kings did lose last night, which was to be expected as they were in Denver. The final score was 126-112 and thus they just missed covering as 12-pt dogs. Now they were down 20+ heading into the fourth quarter, which is pretty shocking considering they ended up shooting 52.3% for the game, including 13 of 31 from three-point range. But I expect them to bounce back at home tonight as a) they're back home, b) the Grizzlies don't deserve to be road favorites and c) a back to back isn't that big of a deal this early in this season. Take the points. Memphis had a rough season last year as they lost 60 games. Now they were as banged up as any team in the league and figure to improve this year. They've already started 2-1, including a huge upset of Utah Monday night as 11-pt underdogs. They allowed just 84 points in a shocking defensive performance that saw them hold the Jazz to just 35.4 percent shooting. Still though, the Grizzlies haven't shot the ball particularly well themselves so far (40.2 FG%). They did cover as a seven-point favorite against Memphis last week, but that was at home. As a road favorite, the team was 0-4 SU and ATS last season and it's a role I'm not ready to trust them in just yet. Sacramento came into last night's game second in the league in scoring at 125.7 PPG and was the first team to top 100 against Denver so far. So that's at least one positive takeaway from last night. Free throw shooting was definitely not positive as they missed 11 of 20 attempts. That number should definitely go up tonight. The Kings are a dead even 17-17 ATS in the second night of a back to back the L2 seasons, so they're no worse in this situation ATS than they are normally. In fact, there's no difference at all as the team's overall ATS record since the start of 2016-17 is 81-81! No starter played more than 24 minutes last night. The Kings have shot better than 50% from the floor in every game this season and have enough offensive firepower to potentially pull the outright upset. 8* Sacramento |
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10-23-18 | Dodgers +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -163 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
8* Run Line LA Dodgers (8:09 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Dodgers at +1.5. Clayton Kershaw getting an additional run and a half to work with, at anything but a totally exorbitant price, is virtually unheard of. So I'll jump on this rare opportunity in Game 1 of the World Series. I've expected the Dodgers to be in this position for some time now. Long ago, I called them the best team in the National League and while it took seven games to dispose of the Brewers, here we are. Boston eliminating Houston, in five games no less, was a tad bit more surprising. What's not surprising is that the Red Sox are making this a battle of lefty aces, sending Chris Sale to the mound. As much as we should fear the Red Sox lineup inside Fenway Park, the Dodgers do benefit from a DH here and Sale's health has become a bit of a concern. Kershaw has already pitched three times this postseason. He has a 2.50 ERA and 0.833 WHIP and was lights out ttwo wo of the three times. Now the exception did come on the road. That was Game 1 of the NLCS at Milwaukee where he was betrayed by a shocking mistake (HR allowed to a relief pitcher) as well as his defense. But he immediately bounced back by holding the Brewers to one run and three hits (in 7 IP) in Game 5. Perhaps most importantly, he had nine strikeouts. Kershaw's overall resume obviously needs little introduction as he's been one of the top pitchers in baseball for several years now. The Dodgers are 10-1 in his L11 starts w/ that one loss coming by - one run - a result we'd also take in this situation. The big news w/ Sale is less about performance and more about health. Over the last week, he's had to battle a stomach illness, which was serious enough to cause an overnight stay at a hospital. There's been some debate over the cause of that illness, but the bottom line is that Sale has thrown only four innings in the last 17 days and just 21 1/3 innings since August 12th. The Dodgers' lineup, which already averages 5.3 rpg on the road, now benefits from the designated hitter. The DH rule will also benefit Kershaw, who doesn't have to worry about hitting. In their last five games at American League parks, the Dodgers went 4-1 and scored eight or more runs three times. They're my call here plus the 1.5 runs. 8* Run Line LA Dodgers (+1.5) |
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10-22-18 | Giants v. Falcons -3.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 47 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:15 ET): I really don't understand the "love" that the Giants are getting here. The G-Men do benefit from having not played since last Thursday. But they'll need more than that (and more points from the oddsmakers) for Eli Manning and his pop-gun arm to compete w/ the high-flying Falcons in this building. Atlanta has been a disappointment in its own right this year, but they did win big for me last Sunday, beating Tampa Bay 34-29 as three-point chalk (late FG got the cover!). They have scored 31 or more points in every home game thus far, so again, I don't see how a Giants team that has scored 30 or more only ONCE in the L3 seasons is going to be able to keep pace. Despite having been a 'dog in every game this year, the Giants are only 2-4 ATS. The Falcons are 5-2 SU and ATS when laying between 3.5 & 7 pts the L3 seasons. The Giants are 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS as a dog in that same range during the same time frame. When considering why the Falcons (2-4 SU) have overachieved to this point, one must consider the multitude of injuries they have been hit with, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. But DT Grady Jarrett is back this week and stopping the Giants' anemic offense (19.5 PPG overall) shouldn't prove difficult. Also, two receivers - Mohammed Sanu and Calvin Ridley - have both been cleared to play tonight. With a full compliment of receivers, look for Falcons QB Matt Ryan to have a big night. The L3 weeks have seen the Giants surrender 33, 33 and 34 points. Again, assuming Atlanta is able to follow suit and hang 30+ points, I just don't see how the Giants can keep pace. Saquon Barkley was chosen #2 overall in the Draft by the Giants and there's been a lot of debate about that pick. There is no denying Barkley is going to be a great player in this league. But the problem is Eli Manning is still directing this offense, so even though it's quite loaded at RB/WR, it really doesn't matter. The Giants have topped 18 points in only two games this season. Manning, who has thrown as many INT's as he has touchdown passes the last three games, has been sacked 20 times already this season. Also, when considering Atlanta's deficiencies when it comes to pass rushing, note the Giants are one of only three teams w/ fewer sacks. Look for the Falcons to simply outscore the Giants here. 10* Atlanta |
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10-21-18 | Warriors v. Nuggets +3.5 | Top | 98-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
10* Denver (8:05 ET): Golden State finds itself in the second leg of what insiders know is the toughest road trip in the sport, the Utah-Denver double shot. The Warriors were lucky to beat the Jazz Friday night, 124-123, getting a last second tip-in from Jonas Jerebko. The two-time defending champs are now 0-2 ATS on the year as they also failed to cover against the Westbrook-less Thunder on Opening Night. It's pretty shocking that the Dubs needed a last second tip-in to squeak by the Jazz given that they shot 56.3% for the game. They aren't likely to shoot the ball that well again here and as I stated earlier in the week, this Denver team is for real. Take the points. The Nuggets are also 2-0 straight up, but unlike Golden St they've covered both games. I took them in the first game as they rallied late to put away the Clippers, 107-98. Last night, they predictably blew out the Suns 119-91 w/ Nikola Jokic's triple double (35-12-11) leading the way. Jokic also didn't miss a single shot, going 11 for 11 from the field. Not all the news was good coming out of the game, however, as Will Barton was lost to a hip injury and could miss extended time. He won't play tonight. But despite that injury and the fact the Nuggets are in the second night of a back to back, I still think the situation favors them. They traditionally own one of the league's best home court advantages (31-10 SU LY) due to the high altitude other teams aren't used to playing at. Remember - it was a blowout win last night, so the B2B game scenario isn't that bad here for the Nuggets. They led 30-16 after one quarter. Losing Barton could be significant, but thankfully this is one of the league's deeper teams. The Nuggets should also be "up" for playing the Warriors at home. Typically, they have matched up well against the Dubs, even beating them twice outright last year. They are one of only three teams (Spurs & Jazz are the others) to hold at least five regular season victories against Golden State in the Steve Kerr era. A number of the Warriors' top players have struggled in this venue previously. Kevin Durant is a woeful 34% from three-point range in his career here while Klay Thompson has never scored more than 21 pts in a game at the Pepsi Center. I'll take the points, expecting an outright win. 10* Denver |
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10-21-18 | Patriots v. Bears +3.5 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 18 m | Show |
8* Chicago (1:00 ET): Last week proved it might be a bit premature to start printing those Bears' playoff tickets as they suffered an upset loss at the hands of a Dolphins team sans its starting QB. Sure, Chicago was lucky to even have a chance in OT after Miami's Kenyon Drake fumbled at the goal line. But they did lead the game by double digits in the fourth quarter. The news that Miami would be starting Brock Osweiler in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill came late and I wished I could have got down on the 'Fins as a home dog as the Bears were clearly being overvalued at 3-1 SU and coming off a bye. But this week, they're back in a more customary underdog role. Granted, they have to face the Patriots, but I believe they'll be up to the challenge. New England picked up a big win last Sunday night, beating Kansas City 43-40 in an absolute thriller. Once again, reports of Bill Belichick's demise turned out to be greatly exaggerated as since that 1-2 start, the Pats have won three straight while averaging almost 40 points per game. However, key is that all three games were played in Foxboro. This one comes on the road against a team that - unlike the Chiefs - can actually play defense. Remember that the Patriots are 0-2 on the road this year, losing by double digits to both Jacksonville and Detroit. Those were easily their two lowest scoring games of the year as well. Obviously, there's a big worry here for the Bears w/ Khalil Mack's ankle limiting him in practice. They'll certainly need him in order to pull any potential upset this week. But Chicago has done just fine as a home dog - even preceding Mack - going 8-2-1 ATS their L11 times in the role w/ five outright wins. I still believe in this team as one that can "win ugly" and get to the playoffs. Winning this week would be a giant step in the right direction. One positive from last week is that QB Mitchell Trubisky averaged 10.2 yards per pass attempt while the running game gained 5.3 yards per carry and that was against a pretty good Dolphins defense. At home, I believe the Bears are capable of pulling the upset. 8* Chicago |
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10-21-18 | Lions v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 4 m | Show |
10* Miami (1:00 ET): The Dolphins may seem to be "living dangerously," but fact is they're getting the job done. They're now 4-2 following last week's upset of the Bears. Truthfully, with the exception of that bad 38-7 loss to the Patriots, this team has played quite well this season. They didn't even need QB Ryan Tannehill to beat the Bears, though they did need overtime. But led by Brock Osweiler, they outgained Chicago 541-467 and could have put the game away earlier if not for a Kenyon Drake fumble at the goal line. They'll continue to be w/o Tannehill for the forseeable furture, but as we saw last week, Tannehill's value to the pointspread is minimal at best. That's why I'm so surprised to see the Dolphins come in as underdogs at home to the Lions this week. Detroit is off a bye. Before that, they pulled their own upset, beating Green Bay 31-23. But that game took place at Ford Field and saw the Lions get significantly outgained by the Packers, 521-264. It's very rare that a NFL team wins when getting outgained on a 2:1 basis. The Lions did it thanks to a +3 turnover margin and GB kicker Mason Crosby missing four of five field goal attempts. The Lions are now 4-0 ATS since that MNF disaster vs. the Jets to open the season, including a win over New England, but they've also yet to win a road game. They were beaten at both San Francisco (yikes) and Dallas. Miami is 3-0 SU and ATS at home this year. As a home underdog, the Dolphins are on a 7-3-1 ATS run after last week and all seven covers have seen them take the game straight up! Meanwhile, as you might expect, Detroit isn't a road favorite too often. They're just 7-13-1 ATS in the role since 2010 w/ 10 outright losses. I definitely wouldn't want to lay points w/ Matt Patricia's team on the road. The Dolphins should be able to run the ball effectively in this game given that the Lions rank 30th defensively at stopping the run and aren't much better against the pass. Miami WR Albert Wilson is a nightmare to cover, just ask the Bears, who saw him make six catches for 155 yards, two of those going for touchdowns. If the Fins can gain 500+ total yards against a very good Bears defense, then they should have their way here as well. Miami's defense remains underrated. 10* Miami |
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10-21-18 | Bills +8.5 v. Colts | Top | 5-37 | Loss | -130 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): I've played the Bills before and not only "lived to tell the story," but cashed them as an outright winner over the Titans back in Week 5. So even as they are forced to turn to their third starting QB of the year already (Allen hurt, Peterman terrible), I'm not afraid to take them if I think the situation is right. Anderson won't represent any kind of significant downgrade from either Allen or Peterman, in fact, it might actually be an upgrade even though he just signed w/ the team! This play reminds me a lot of that Bills-Titans matchup in that just like Tennessee, Indianapolis has something in common w/ Buffalo: they've yet to be favored a single time in '18. The Colts are not a team I would want to lay points with, so grab the underdog in this one. Since that disastrous Week 1 showing against the Ravens (who have the league's top defense, by the way), the Bills have shown a reasonable level of competency. They've won twice, beating Minnesota and Tennessee, and last week should have finished off the Texans were it not for Peterman rearing his ugly head. The Bills led 13-10 w/ less than two minutes to go in regulation, but then gave up the game-tying field goal w/ 1:34 remaining. No problem though, there's always overtime, right? Well, not in this case. Peterman, only playing because rookie Josh Allen was hurt, threw an atrocious "pick-six" to lose the game on the very next drive. Still though, the Bills easily covered as 10-point road underdogs. I think they can do the same here, thanks to a defense that is 10th in total yards. The Bills have allowed 22 pts or fewer in four straight games. The Colts are a bad team, off to their worst start since the dreaded 2011 season that was the bridge between Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. They've lost four in a row and already given up 34 or more points four times this season, including each of the last three weeks. So again, this is not a team I'd want to be laying points with, especially this many. While Luck has been throwing the ball a lot this year, he's been very inefficient doing so, ranking 29th in yards per attempt. He does get WR T.Y. Hilton back this week, but the return of one receiver alone cannot cure all that ails this team. This is the first time the Colts have been favored by seven points or more since 2014. Take the points. 8* Buffalo |
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10-21-18 | Titans +7 v. Chargers | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 141 h 25 m | Show |
10* Tennessee (9:30 AM ET): "Wanna Get Away?" is a tagline for a popular airline company and right about now the Titans would gladly take them up on the offer. The team is off B2B "stinkers" as they lost outright to Buffalo and then were humbled by Baltimore at home. The offense has scored a grand total of 12 points in those two losses and against the Ravens, QB Marcus Mariota was sacked more times (11) than he had completed passes (10). I was highly skeptical of the Titans' 3-1 start, but now that they've lost the two games in a row, I see some value on them as they head across the pond to play the Chargers in London. They'll be going up against a much worse defense than what they've seen so far this season. Take the points in this one. The Chargers have handled their business each of the L3 weeks, going 3-0. But they've beaten three bottom-feeders (i.e. last place teams) in San Francisco, Cleveland and Oakland. In fact, it's tough to know exactly where Philip Rivers and company are really at right now as their only other win came against another terrible team (Buffalo), but their two losses came against two of the best teams, the Rams and Chiefs. They've covered the spread in three of their four wins (only failed vs. SF) and did not cover in either loss. My guess is that the pointspread comes into play Saturday morning in Wembley Stadium. The early start time isn't exactly favorable to the West Coast team as kickoff will be at 6:30 AM Pacific time. They are staying in Cleveland this week to practice. The Chargers' 38-14 win over the Browns last week was a little misleading in that they got up big early despite not possessing the ball much. They had no problem moving the ball when they had it (449 total yards), but the edge in total yards really didn't become substantial until the end of the game when they were simply running it down the Browns' throats. Consider that Tennessee is 3-3 SU despite being favored only once (at Buffalo) and they have wins over Jacksonville and Philadelphia. Their offense cannot possibly be worse than it was against Baltimore, who probably has the best defense in the league. Off B2B losses, the Titans have gone a perfect 4-0 ATS the L2 years. The Chargers have not been a good opponent for them through the years (1-9 SU, 0-9-1 ATS L10 meetings), but they'll at least cover the spread here. 10* Tennessee |
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10-21-18 | Nevada +3 v. Hawaii | Top | 40-22 | Win | 100 | 55 h 36 m | Show |
8* Nevada (12:00 AM ET): We're going really late night for this LAST CHANCE POWER-DRIVE as went head out to the Island. Both these teams went just 3-9 SU last season and have already matched or exceeded that win total here in '18. Nevada was the one supposed to improve, but ironically they're only 3-4 SU while Hawaii is a rather stunning 6-2 SU. The Warriors immediately turned heads in their first game of the season when they upset Colorado State, 43-34, as 17-pt road underdogs. Even though I took the points w/ them in that game, I was stunned at the ease in which they won outright. (Of course, we also didn't know how bad Colorado St was yet). More upsets have followed, but this week the Warriors are favored for the very first time against a team that isn't either from the FCS or in my bottom 10 in of my FBS rankings. I'll take the points. Nevada is off B2B home losses, but they had to play the two teams that were in LY's Mt. West Championship Game, Boise State and Fresno State. They were double digit dogs to both, so you can't really fault them for losing. In fact, last week saw them go down to the wire against Boise State in an eventual 31-27 loss. The Wolf Pack have only been favored twice all year, so I'm not really faulting them for a 3-4 SU record to this point. Hawaii is a tough place to play if you're the visitor, but Nevada won't be intimidated as they've already played at Vanderbilt, Toledo and Air Force. They turned in a pretty remarkable effort in upsetting the AFA, holding them to just 250 total yards, including just 154 rushing on 51 carries. Nevada has to win three of its last five games to become bowl eligible. They'll be favored to win two and will be dogs in two others, so this probably represents the "swing game." The road team has actually been favored in the last two Nevada-Hawaii matchups, only to lose outright both times. Last season, the Wolf Pack won 35-21 as three-point dogs in Reno. They rolled up 566 total yds of offense in that game, led by QB Ty Gangi, who missed the Fresno State game but is now back and ready to produce. Hawaii's defense isn't much better than it was last year as they've already given up 40+ pts three times including 49 last week to BYU, not to mention nearly 500 total yards. I look for a minor "upset" late Saturday night. 8* Nevada |
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10-20-18 | Rockets v. Lakers +3.5 | Top | 124-115 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): LeBron lost his Lakers' debut Thursday night, falling at Portland, 128-119. I wouldn't be overly concerned with that result, however, considering James also lost his pro debut in Cleveland, his 1st game in Miami and his 1st game back in Cleveland. In the case of the last two stops, his teams immediately bounce back w/ a win. As for James individually, he was his usual efficient self against the Blazers, totaling 26 points, 12 rebounds and six assists. What has the potential for more concern was Houston's woeful performance in their first game. At home, they were blown out 131-112 by the Pelicans and it looks as if they are prepared to take a step back this season. One of these teams is going to be 0-2 SU after tonight and I'll take the points. Last year was one of the best seasons in recent Rockets' history as they finished w/ the best record in the league (won 65 games) and took the eventual champion Warriors to a 7th game in the Western Conference Finals. But like most, I have them taking a bit of a step back in 2018-19. For one, I hate the Carmelo Anthony acquisition. No team w/ Melo on the roster has ever been a legit championship contender and this is now his 4th franchise. Last year's team was actually competent defensively, but w/ the losses of Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute in the offseason, that might not be the case again this year. We saw clear signs of defensive regression against the Pelicans, who shot 53.1% from the floor en route to a blowout victory. Bad news for Houston is that the Lakers were just 7 of 30 from three-point range against Portland and missed their first 15 attempts. That might actually sound like "good news," but I don't see any way the Lakers aren't better from distance tonight and that's not even factoring in the Rockets' poor defense. While I do think the expectations for the Lakers are a little high this season, this team does have plenty of talent beyond just James. It's a more talented group than he had LY in Cleveland. Meanwhile, I'm concerned that Rockets' HC Mike D'Antoni had to make the excuse "I thought they were tired" in reference to his team's performance vs. New Orleans. It was the 1st game of the season! 8* LA Lakers |
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10-20-18 | Connecticut +34 v. South Florida | Top | 30-38 | Win | 100 | 84 h 19 m | Show |
8* Connecticut (7:00 ET): I know. I know. This is really going to test my reputation as an "underdog bettor." UConn has not been good by any stretch of the imagination. This is a bottom five team in the country, in fact, as the Huskies are 1-5 SU w/ the lone win coming in a game against a FCS school (Rhode Island) where they still gave up 550 total yards. In the five games vs. FBS foes, they have been outscored by 39, 55, 30, 42 and 41 points. That's an average loss of 41.4 PPG! This week finds them playing a team that they've lost to six straight times and is still unbeaten this season. Certainly, this one gets out of hand in a hurry, right? Not so fast! I'm actually taking the points! Even after last Saturday's myriad of upsets, there are still eight teams without a loss in College Football. Surprising is that three of them hail from the American Conference, including - pretty clearly - the weakest one, that being USF. The Bulls are UConn's opponent this week and pretty fortunate to still be unbeaten after LW's near failure at Tulsa. I faded USF in that one, calling them the weakest of the unbeatens then too, and they trailed for most of the game. Despite ending up w/ a 487-299 edge in total yardage, the Bulls trailed by two touchdowns entering the fourth quarter. They were still down eight w/ just over two minutes to go, but a TD (missed 2-pt try) and field goal in the closing seconds got them the one-point win they needed to remain unbeaten. Last week wasn't the first time it looked like USF might lose this season. Both East Carolina and Georgia Tech outgained them by more than 150 yards. Wins over ECU and Illinois came by a total of just 13 points. Four of the Bulls' six wins this year have been by 11 pts or less and the 49-38 win over Ga Tech actually saw them down 10 in the 4Q. I understand that the pollsters are gonna have this team ranked because of the "0" in the loss column, but not only is USF not counted among my Top 25, they barely crack my top 70! I know the home team has typically dominated this conference rivalry (two very different climates!), but this is a huge number to lay when USF only won 37-20 LY in Storrs as 23-pt chalk. UConn is off a bye here and USF has trailed at the end of the 1st quarter in four of its six games. One of the two they did not was a 7-0 lead over FCS Elon. Hold your nose and take the points! 8* Connecticut |
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10-20-18 | NC State v. Clemson -16 | Top | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 123 h 25 m | Show |
10* Clemson (3:30 ET): Both of these teams enter in this Week 8 ACC showdown off a bye. Both are also undefeated. However, that's where the similarities end. I've been pretty clear in the past that "not all undefeated records are created equal" and that is most definitely the case here. Clemson, having participated in the College Football Playoff each of the last three years (and winning it all two years ago, is a top three team in the country right now. NC State is only ranked because of the "0" in the loss column as "that's what the pollsters do." I don't even have the Wolfpack ranked in my top 40! Most will see this line as inflated, but I don't think it's nearly high enough. I expect Clemson to absolutely roll Saturday afternoon. Lay the points. Something else to consider is that Clemson will absolutely be taking NC State seriously. That's because they've failed to cover the spread against them each of the last two years. In 2016, they needed OT to win 24-17 as 19-pt home favorites. Last year, they trailed at the half in Raleigh (despite a special teams TD) and needed an interception in the end zone on the final play to seal a 38-31 victory. This year, the Wolfpack won't be sneaking up on the Tigers. Dabo Swinney's team seemingly hit its stride right before the bye week as they obliterated Wake Forest 63-3 on the road. Clemson is 16-1 SU hosting ACC teams the past five seasons w/ the only loss coming by a single point. I expect a highly motivated favorite Saturday afternoon in Death Valley. NC State is a team I actually though would take a step BACK in '18, so I'm surprised to see that they're still undefeated. Then again, they have been favored in all five games so far. A game where they would NOT have been favored (Week 3 vs. West Virginia) was cancelled due to Hurricane Florence. Not playing that game really hurts their preparation for this, their 1st real test of the season, in my estimation. The Wolfpack do have a NFL QB in Ryan Finley, but little else, and Finley is going to feel the heat all afternoon long from a Clemson defensive front filled w/ NFL caliber talent. Look for the Clemson defense to make NC State one-dimensional on offense and Finley can't come close to beating the Tigers by himself. 10* Clemson |
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10-20-18 | Florida Atlantic v. Marshall +3 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 45 h 7 m | Show |
8* Marshall (2:30 ET): Last year, Lane Kiffin's FAU Owls were the darlings of the College Football universe. They ended the year on a 10-game win streak and absolutely plowed through the Conference USA portion of the schedule, winning all eight games by an average of 22.1 PPG. They didn't even trail for a single minute in the last 5 1/2 games! However, under the weight of expectation, the 2018 edition has crumbled some. One of the big reasons why is their dropoff in play away from Boca Raton. The Owls are 0-3 SU/ATS away from home this year, including an outright loss to Middle Tennessee two weeks ago. The other two saw them completely unable to stop either Oklahoma or UCF, giving up over 100 points and 100 total yards. With FAU struggling some, the door to the C-USA East title is a lot more wide open now than it was a season ago. Marshall figured to be one of the top challengers anyway and getting FAU in Huntington is a big advantage in getting to the division summit. The Thundering Herd's last win came against Old Dominion, who happens to also be the last team FAU played. The Owls are the ones coming off the bye here, but the Herd posted a slightly better margin of victory (22 pts) over ODU than FAU (19 pts) did. Marshall is a surprising 1-2 SU so far at home, so they'll be looking to make a statement here. Under HC Doc Holiday, the Thundering Herd have gone 37-15 straight up. We've already gone over FAU's struggles on the road this season. Neither team has been impressive against the pointspread thus far w/ Marshall 2-4 ATS and FAU just 1-5. That's a big change for Kiffin, whose team was one of the top teams in the country against the number last year. In addition to homefield advantage, another edge for Marshall lies on the defensive side of the football where they are giving up just 3.0 yards per carry compared to 4.7 for FAU. That difference is potentially huge when considering the two star running backs in this game, Tyler King for Marshall and Devin Singletary for FAU. Singletary had more hype coming into the year, but King is averaging 1.3 more yards per carry. In my estimation, the better team is getting points here and Marshall has revenge here for a five-point loss last year in Boca Raton where they were -4 in turnovers. 8* Marshall |
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10-20-18 | Buffalo v. Toledo +1.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -113 | 43 h 39 m | Show |
10* Toledo (12:00 ET): Before the start of the season, I think that few (if anyone!) woud have expected Buffalo to go into the Glass Bowl and pick up a win, let alone be FAVORED over Toledo. But here we are in October and HC Lance Leipold (who made the jump from D-III power Wisc-Whitewater) has this Bulls team playing awfully well. They're 6-1 and unbeaten in MAC play, holding wins over Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan and Akron. Not to mention, they've also gone on the road and beaten both Temple and Rutgers. It's looking like there's a very good chance that this UB team ends up w/ more wins than either the '08 or '13 editions (8 each) that represent the only two times the program has ever been to a bowl game. Toledo, who has been the team to beat in the MAC West the last few seasons, feels like a disappointment right now. The Rockets enter this game 3-3 and are off a disappointing 28-26 loss LW at Eastern Michigan, a team Buffalo beat by a TD (at home, though). That loss saw Toledo battle back from a 28-3 halftime deficit, only to have the potential game-tying two-point conversion denied in the final minute. The Rockets' other two losses were to Miami FL and at Fresno State, games where they came in as double digit underdogs. So while the 2018 season may feel like a disappointment thus far, last week was the only time that the Rockets lost in a situation where they were expected to win. I think that returning to the Glass Bowl is huge as they've scored 63 and 52 pts the L2x here. I just can't get over the fact Buffalo is now favored here. It's largely been public money that caused this number to "jump the fence" and that has me jumping in on the other side. Buffalo has never won here at the Glass Bowl where Toledo has lost only twice in three years under HC Jason Candle and one of the losses to Miami FL. Plus, the Bulls have hardly faced the strongest slate of opponents in compiling their 6-1 SU record. They do have the upset over Temple, but that was back in Week 2 when the Owls weren't playing nearly as well as they are now. And they were humbled by the best team they've faced, Army, 42-13. This will be UB's eight straight week playing w/o a bye. Toledo has not been a home dog to a MAC opponent since 2013 vs. a Northern Illinois team that was nationally ranked and had won 22 of its previous 23 games. 10* Toledo |
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10-19-18 | Thunder +2 v. Clippers | Top | 92-108 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (10:35 ET): In this PERFECT 4-0 start to the NBA season, both of these teams have treated me well, albeit in different ways. Oklahoma City was my 1st winner of the season as they stayed inside the number against Golden State on Opening Night despite not having Russell Westbrook. Then I played against the Clippers the following night as they hosted Denver and lost 107-98 here at home. I'm sticking with those preferences tonight and taking the Thunder. They have had the Clippers number in recent years, going 6-1 ATS the previous seven meetings, including a season sweep in 2017-18. Plus, as I said in the earlier analysis, I simply don't think much of this Clippers team whose ceiling is probably no higher than 11th in the Western Conference. There have been conflicting reports about the status of Westbrook for tonight's game. Initially, he was thought to be rule out, but he's officially listed as questionable. Clippers' HC Doc Rivers claims to have an "inside source" and believes that Westbrook will play. Consider him playing to be an added bonus, one that we don't need. Despite 27 points from Paul George, the Thunder shot only 36.3% from the field Tuesday night, including 10 of 37 from three-point range. They also missed 13 of 37 free throws and were outrebounded, a rarity for them, by the Warriors. I expect all shooting numbers to go up here and for the rebounding to improve as well tonight. The Clippers were soundly outrebounded by the Nuggets on Wednesday and one of the reasons I believe it'll be a similar story here vs. OKC is that Thunder are traditionally one of the top rebounding teams in the league. Like the Thunder, the Clippers didn't shoot particularly well in their season opener, but the difference is that they don't really have the horses to project any kind of improvement for tonight. The starting five is barely recognizable from past years and Patrick Beverely was 0 for 8 from the floor against the Nuggets. The team's best scored, Lou Williams, comes off the bench. The Thunder are the better team here, with or without Westbrook, and I'll gladly take the points. 10* Oklahoma City |
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10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals +2 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 38 m | Show |
8* Arizona (8:20 ET): It's certainly not the most marquee Thursday night battle this week as two struggling teams, Denver and Arizona, meet out in the desert. The Broncos are 2-4, but have lost four straight, while the Cardinals are 1-5 SU and last in the league in most offensive categories. Despite their offensive deficiencies, I see some value on the home team here. Home teams usually have the edge in these Thursday night games (well, not the Giants last week) and I'm not sure Denver is a team that should be laying points on the road. The Broncos' two wins this year, both at home, were by a combined four points. Their two road games have seen them lose by a combined 31 points. Take the points here. Neither team has had a friendly schedule so far. Arizona lost at Minnesota last week, 27-17, and didn't look impressive at all in doing so. They have yet to gain even 300 total yards in a game this season, which is incredible in today's NFL. Last week's 269 was actually a season-high even though they'd won the previous week at San Francisco. I thought the Cardinals' defense did a decent job pressuring Vikings QB Kirk Cousins, but there were few, if any, other positives. I will say that w/ Josh Rosen as the QB, the team is going to be better offensively than they were w/ Sam Bradford. The Cards' last two home games saw them fight down to the wire, losing to Seattle and Chicago by only a combined five points. They went 0 for 12 on 3rd/4th down last week, which isn't likely to be repeated here. Denver fought valiently against the Rams on Sunday, but ultimately went down by a score of 23-20. They had a few games go down to the wire ATS w/ results varying, so last week was the first time the Broncos definitely covered for anybody. Under Vance Joseph, the team has gone 5-15-2 ATS, the worst such record in the league during that time. The biggest problem Joseph has faced is at QB as the franchise has gotten poor play out of the position ever since Peyton Manning retired. Truthfully, Manning wasn't very good his final season, so it's been three years of bad QB play here. Case Keenum isn't looking like the answer as he's tossed at least one INT in every game. The Denver offensive line is thin coming into this game w/ guard Ronald Leary out w/ an ACL. The defense has allowed an incredible 593 yards rushing the last two weeks and gave up over 500 total yds to the Jets in their last road game. 8* Arizona |
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10-18-18 | Red Wings v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
10* Puck Line Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a Puck Line play only where I am taking the Lightning at -1.5. Detroit remains the lone winless team in the league with four of the six losses coming in regulation. Their -16 goal differential is easily a league worst and unfortunately for them the task gets no easier tonight as they're in Tampa Bay. The Lightning have absolutely owned the Red Wings in recent years, taking all nine meetings since the start of the 2015-16 season. As you can tell from the money line, this is a total mismatch and thus I have no problem calling for Tampa Bay to win this one by multiple goals. They've also played only four games to Detroit's six. Furthermore, the schedule has set up nicely for the Lightning in the early part of the season. Not only have they only played four times so far (tied for fewest number of games played), but they have yet to leave home ice! They did suffer a rather shocking 4-1 loss to Vancouver back on 10.11, but that came after a long layoff. Here, we find them two days removed from a 4-2 win over Carolina. That was led by a Tyler Johnson hat trick, one of his goals coming short-handed. The Lightning have quite the PK unit thus far, having killed off all 18 opposing power plays! What's really scary about this team is that it's off to fast start despite minimal contributions from both Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov. Just imagine when those two superstars get going. Meanwhile, there are few positives to talk about w/ this Detroit club, which has been trending downward for a couple seasons. This season could very well be rock bottom as they've been outscored 30-14 in six games. Tonght will be their third consecutive road game after losses at Boston (8-2) and Montreal (7-3). As nice as the Lightning's early-season schedule has been, the Red Wings' has been equally as difficult. They've only gotten to play twice at home and this will be the 5th road game in 11 days. I have no idea how they're going to stop the high-scoring Lightning as goalies Jimmy Howard and Jonathan Bernier have combined for a woeful .850 save percentage. Tampa Bay's save percentage (.937) is at the top of the league w/ likely starter Andrei Vasilevskiy having stopped 96 of the 101 shots he's faced thus far. The Lightning win big here. 10* Puck Line Tampa Bay (-1.5) |
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Bryan Power ALL Sports Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-18-18 | Eagles +9.5 v. Saints | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -120 | 90 h 45 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Panthers v. Lions +4 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 115 h 11 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Steelers v. Jaguars +7 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 115 h 11 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Wake Forest v. Valparaiso +1.5 | Top | 69-63 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
11-17-18 | Arizona State v. Oregon -3.5 | Top | 29-31 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
11-17-18 | Blues +1.5 v. Sharks | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -150 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
11-17-18 | 76ers v. Hornets -2.5 | Top | 122-119 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
11-17-18 | Montana State v. UC-Santa Barbara -9 | Top | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
11-17-18 | Air Force +2.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 27-35 | Loss | -105 | 94 h 12 m | Show |
11-17-18 | Bowling Green v. Akron -7 | Top | 21-6 | Loss | -100 | 94 h 42 m | Show |
11-17-18 | Pittsburgh v. Wake Forest +6 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -108 | 90 h 12 m | Show |
11-16-18 | Memphis v. SMU +7.5 | Top | 28-18 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 20 m | Show |
11-16-18 | Niagara +6.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 72-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
11-16-18 | Miami-OH v. North Dakota State +2.5 | Top | 89-78 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
11-15-18 | Florida Atlantic v. North Texas -3 | Top | 38-41 | Push | 0 | 77 h 46 m | Show |
11-15-18 | Hawks v. Nuggets -12 | Top | 93-138 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
11-15-18 | Fresno State +11.5 v. TCU | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
11-15-18 | Packers v. Seahawks -2.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
11-14-18 | Montana State v. Colorado State -11.5 | Top | 77-81 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
11-14-18 | Heat v. Nets +2 | Top | 120-107 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
11-14-18 | Buffalo v. Ohio -1.5 | Top | 17-52 | Win | 100 | 50 h 22 m | Show |
11-13-18 | Memphis +11 v. LSU | Top | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
11-13-18 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Florida International -4.5 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
11-13-18 | NC-Greensboro v. NC-Wilmington +6.5 | Top | 82-61 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
11-12-18 | Giants +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
11-12-18 | Louisiana-Monroe +19.5 v. Texas | Top | 55-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
11-12-18 | Troy State v. Pittsburgh -4.5 | Top | 75-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
11-11-18 | Bucks v. Nuggets -3 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
11-11-18 | Chargers v. Raiders +11 | Top | 20-6 | Loss | -135 | 119 h 59 m | Show |
11-11-18 | Falcons v. Browns +7 | Top | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
11-11-18 | Lions +7.5 v. Bears | Top | 22-34 | Loss | -135 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
11-11-18 | Patriots v. Titans +7.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
11-10-18 | UNLV +23 v. San Diego State | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 29 h 1 m | Show |
11-10-18 | Rockets -2 v. Spurs | Top | 89-96 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
11-10-18 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Hurricanes | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
11-10-18 | Mississippi State +26 v. Alabama | Top | 0-24 | Win | 100 | 94 h 25 m | Show |
11-10-18 | Troy v. Georgia Southern | Top | 35-21 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 56 m | Show |
11-10-18 | North Carolina v. Duke -10.5 | Top | 35-42 | Loss | -108 | 91 h 16 m | Show |
11-09-18 | Fresno State v. Boise State +3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 59 h 59 m | Show |
11-09-18 | Hornets +6 v. 76ers | Top | 132-133 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
11-09-18 | UL-Lafayette +16.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 65-87 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
11-08-18 | Evansville +13.5 v. Illinois | Top | 60-99 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
11-08-18 | Wake Forest +17 v. NC State | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 32 h 4 m | Show |
11-08-18 | Canucks +1.5 v. Bruins | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
11-07-18 | Toledo +3 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 15-38 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
11-07-18 | Ohio v. Miami-OH +3.5 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
11-07-18 | Western Carolina +17.5 v. Wright State | Top | 73-96 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
11-06-18 | UC-Santa Barbara +7.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
11-06-18 | South Alabama +20 v. Auburn | Top | 58-101 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
11-06-18 | Hawks +11.5 v. Hornets | Top | 102-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
11-05-18 | Rockets v. Pacers -1 | Top | 98-94 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
11-04-18 | Chargers v. Seahawks +1 | Top | 25-17 | Loss | -108 | 43 h 41 m | Show |
11-04-18 | Steelers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -118 | 113 h 57 m | Show |
11-04-18 | Chiefs v. Browns +9 | Top | 37-21 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 60 m | Show |
11-03-18 | San Diego State v. New Mexico +10.5 | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 57 h 32 m | Show |
11-03-18 | Celtics v. Pacers +3.5 | Top | 101-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
11-03-18 | Houston v. SMU +14.5 | Top | 31-45 | Win | 100 | 53 h 17 m | Show |
11-03-18 | Tulane +7.5 v. South Florida | Top | 41-15 | Win | 100 | 50 h 52 m | Show |
11-03-18 | Kansas State v. TCU -8 | Top | 13-14 | Loss | -106 | 50 h 47 m | Show |
11-02-18 | Colorado +3.5 v. Arizona | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 46 m | Show |
11-02-18 | Pittsburgh +7.5 v. Virginia | Top | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
11-01-18 | Raiders +3 v. 49ers | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -125 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
11-01-18 | Kings v. Hawks +2 | Top | 146-115 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
11-01-18 | Northern Illinois v. Akron +6.5 | Top | 36-26 | Loss | -125 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
10-31-18 | Ball State v. Toledo -17 | Top | 13-45 | Win | 100 | 51 h 53 m | Show |
10-30-18 | Kent State +1 v. Bowling Green | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
10-30-18 | Kings v. Magic -4 | Top | 107-99 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
10-29-18 | Patriots v. Bills +14 | Top | 25-6 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
10-29-18 | Blazers v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 103-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
10-28-18 | Jazz -4 v. Mavs | Top | 113-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
10-28-18 | Colts v. Raiders +3 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -100 | 90 h 37 m | Show |
10-28-18 | Seahawks +3 v. Lions | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 122 h 7 m | Show |
10-28-18 | Browns v. Steelers -8 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 122 h 7 m | Show |
10-28-18 | Ravens -1 v. Panthers | Top | 21-36 | Loss | -120 | 86 h 28 m | Show |
10-27-18 | Oregon v. Arizona +9.5 | Top | 15-44 | Win | 100 | 72 h 8 m | Show |
10-27-18 | Hawaii v. Fresno State -24 | Top | 20-50 | Win | 100 | 72 h 3 m | Show |
10-27-18 | Bulls +5.5 v. Hawks | Top | 97-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
10-27-18 | Washington State v. Stanford -3 | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -103 | 104 h 16 m | Show |
10-27-18 | South Florida v. Houston -7 | Top | 36-57 | Win | 100 | 65 h 4 m | Show |
10-27-18 | Texas Tech +3.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 31-40 | Loss | -112 | 62 h 35 m | Show |
10-26-18 | Clippers v. Rockets -3 | Top | 133-113 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
10-26-18 | Indiana v. Minnesota +2.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 50 h 4 m | Show |
10-25-18 | Georgia Tech v. Virginia Tech -3 | Top | 49-28 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
10-24-18 | Grizzlies v. Kings +3 | Top | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
10-23-18 | Dodgers +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -163 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
10-22-18 | Giants v. Falcons -3.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 47 m | Show |
10-21-18 | Warriors v. Nuggets +3.5 | Top | 98-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
10-21-18 | Patriots v. Bears +3.5 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 18 m | Show |
10-21-18 | Lions v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 4 m | Show |
10-21-18 | Bills +8.5 v. Colts | Top | 5-37 | Loss | -130 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
10-21-18 | Titans +7 v. Chargers | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 141 h 25 m | Show |
10-21-18 | Nevada +3 v. Hawaii | Top | 40-22 | Win | 100 | 55 h 36 m | Show |
10-20-18 | Rockets v. Lakers +3.5 | Top | 124-115 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
10-20-18 | Connecticut +34 v. South Florida | Top | 30-38 | Win | 100 | 84 h 19 m | Show |
10-20-18 | NC State v. Clemson -16 | Top | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 123 h 25 m | Show |
10-20-18 | Florida Atlantic v. Marshall +3 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 45 h 7 m | Show |
10-20-18 | Buffalo v. Toledo +1.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -113 | 43 h 39 m | Show |
10-19-18 | Thunder +2 v. Clippers | Top | 92-108 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals +2 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 38 m | Show |
10-18-18 | Red Wings v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |