Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-20-18 | Oklahoma -4 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 81-83 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma (2:00 ET): Just in case you hadn't been paying close attention, the Big 12 is absolutely stacked this year. The league could send as many as 8 of its 10 members to the Big Dance in March, which would be quite the remarkable achievement. It's also somewhat of a "top-heavy" conference w/ five teams currently ranked in my top 18, none of whom have emerged as the clear favorite (let's be honest though, would anyone be shocked if Kansas wins the regular season crown again?). Oklahoma is one of those five teams and is off a SU loss here, perhaps its worst of the season, 87-69 at Kansas State. But this afternoon, the Sooners find themselves playing one of the two "also-rans" in the conference, that being Bedlam rival Oklahoma State. I'll lay the short number on the road. OU has lost just three times this year, all to quality opponents. The infamous "Octagon of Doom" in Manhattan, KS is a tough place to play, so there's no shame in the Sooners losing to Kansas State earlier in the week. But it clearly was a bad performance as leading scorer Trae Young had arguably his roughest night of his outstanding freshman campaign. The Sooners' guard was held to only 20 pts, his fewest in a game since the opener, on 8 of 21 shooting. "I didn't do very well tonight. I played terrible," the freshman guard said. "I blame a lot of the loss on me. All of the loss on me. I didn't play very well tonight," said Young after the game. Obviously, I would expect him to be significantly better tonight. It was 20 turnovers, more than anything else, that prevented OU from coming anywhere close to its scoring average of 93.6 PPG (#1 in the nation!) against KSU. Now Oklahoma is absolutely NOT the 4th best team in the country (current ranking) right now. They'll drop b/c of Tuesday's loss, however, this remains an ideal bounce back situtation. They've already faced Oklahoma State once and put up 109 pts on them in Norman. Young had 27 pts, 10 assists and 9 rebounds in that game. Keep in mind that not only does Young lead the country in scoring (29.5 PPG), he is also #1 in assists (9.8). Oklahoma State is just 1-6 ATS this season vs. teams averaging 77+ points per game. Though they haven't played since Monday (lost 76-60 at Baylor), having to take a bus home from Waco (inclement weather) does the Pokes no favors coming into this one. 8* Oklahoma |
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01-20-18 | St. John's v. Georgetown -1.5 | Top | 89-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
8* Georgetown (12:00 ET): Patrick Ewing's Hoyas are off an absolutely humiliating loss to Villanova earlier in the week, as they fell 88-56. While there's no shame in losing to one of the best teams in the country, doing so by that kind of margin (at home no less!) is clearly no good. But today, G'town not only gets to stay at home, but face an opponent they've already beaten. In fact, I took them +6.5 when they went to the Big Apple and beat St. John's outright, 69-66, on January 9th. That happens to be the Hoyas' last win as they'd go onto lose at Seton Hall last Saturday, then came the Villanova debacle. But St. John's is in much worse shape right now as the Red Storm remain winless in Big East play at 0-7 SU. Lay the small number. Georgetown was actually one of the last remaining unbeatens nationally as they opened the season 8-0 SU. But few took them seriously as they took on an incredibly weak non-conference schedule, one that saw them play just a single "true" road game. Sure enough, we've watched them go 4-6 SU the L10 games, including a 2-5 mark in Big East games. But the perception that the Hoyas padded their schedule was well-known and something that I believe created a "desire" to play against them, even at inflated prices. They haven't covered the last two games, but before that they were 5-1-1 ATS their L7. Coming off a terrible loss like the one they took against 'Nova and already having beaten St. John's, I think the Hoyas are pretty clearly undervalued in this spot. Of course, the Hoyas' recent level of losing does not compare to that of St. John's, who last won a game before X-Mas! There have been numerous close calls in this 0-7 start to Big East play (five losses by 7 pts or less), but that actually works against them here as I seriously doubt they'll be able to match Wednesday's effort at Xavier where they shot 50% from the field, including 11 of 24 from three-point range. This is also the second of B2B road games. Meanwhile, G'town isn't about to let another opponent shoot 60% (like Villanova did Weds) and their own shooting is set to drastically improve as well (four straight games below 40%!). Consider the Hoyas were able to beat St. John's the first time despite shooting only 33.3% and that was on the road! 8* Georgetown |
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01-19-18 | Heat v. Nets +3 | Top | 95-101 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): Miami is as hot as any team in the league right now as they've won eight of nine. Remember, though they didn't make the playoffs last year, there was a tremendous second half run where they went 30-11 SU. However, one thing I have to point out here about the Heat is that despite currently being in fourth place in the East, they've been outscored this season. There are seven teams in the East w/ positive point differentials and they are not one of them. So while it may be tempting to lay a small number against a "bad" Brooklyn team, don't fall into the trap. Also, from a scheduling perspective this is not a good spot for Miami. It's their third consecutive road game and fourth game overall in six nights. Take the points. Brooklyn has lost three straight to fall to 16-29 SU on the season. That awful deal they made w/ Boston a few years back (to land an over the hill Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett) still haunts the franchise as they don't even have a 1st round draft pick this offseason (Cleveland now owns the rights to it via the Kyrie Irving trade). So, it's very likely this franchise will continue to suffer for some time. But, as for the present, it may not be quite as bad as you may think. They're only being outscored by 3.2 ppg this year. Now they have lost five in a row at home. But they only lost by five here to San Antonio on Wednesday and that's despite shooting a pretty woeful 42.2% from the field. They pushed as five-point dogs, but are still 17-7 ATS this season vs. teams w/ a winning record. Miami has kept winning in spite of some injuries, but I feel that can't continue. Dion Waiters is done for the year and Tyler Johnson (ankle) is listed as OUT for this game. The last time these played, the Nets actually blew the Heat out, 111-87 as six-point dogs, and that was in Miami! The Heat shot just 33.7% from the field, including a horrific 3 of 26 from three-point range. Given the result though, I just don't understand the line for this one. My own power rankings rate this game as a pick 'em and I have to go back to the number of games the Heat have played recently as something that will catch up to them. I also think they're NOT as good as their won-loss record. The Heat are also just 7-11 ATS when favored this year and this is just the FIFTH time they've been favored on the road. 10* Brooklyn |
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01-18-18 | Michigan -3.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 52-72 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
10* Michigan (9:00 ET): Coming off their huge upset of Michigan State last weekend, I played against the Wolverines on Monday night and was successful in doing so. They barely got by a short-handed Maryland squad (won 68-67 as 8-pt favorites), needing two free throws in the closing seconds just to pull out the SU victory. They even trailed by 10 at halftime and remember, the game was in Ann Arbord. But I can look past that as it was a pretty obvious letdown spot for the now-ranked (#23) Wolverines. Now that it's out of the way, they can concentrate on what appears to be - on paper - a pair of very winnable games coming up. Going back to early December, Michigan has lost only one game and that was by a single point to Purdue, who is perhaps the best team in the country right now. They won't lose here. Nebraska is the opponent tonight and the Cornhuskers are coming off three consecutive close games, two of them wins. They edged Illinois 64-63 (as 4-pt chalk) on Monday. Like Michigan's one-point victory that same night, the game was not decided until the final seconds. In Nebraska's case, it was a running three-pointer from James Palmer right before the buzzer sounded that gave them the win. That came on the heels of an overtime loss to Penn State last Friday where I once again faded the Cornhuskers. That was their 1st loss of the year in Lincoln, but I'll continue to maintain this team isn't all that impressive. They've really struggled offensively here in Big 10 play, connecting on only 39.5% of their field goal attempts. That's bad news against a Michigan team allowing just 62.8 PPG for the season. You'd have to go all the way back to the start of the season to find the last time the Wolverines failed to cover in consecutive games. They're 2-0 SU/ATS thus far as a road favorite, including a win at Iowa earlier this month. Nebraska is still dealing w/ changes to its starting lineup as HC Tim Miles inserted two new starters for the Illinois game and they didn't really yield anything in the way of positive results. After getting a (needed?) scare from Maryland earlier in the week, I'll lay the points w/ Michigan here as they are simply the better team in this matchup. 10* Michigan |
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01-17-18 | Seton Hall +5 v. Creighton | Top | 63-80 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
8* Seton Hall (8:30 ET): The Big East is a top-heavy league this year w/ four perceived NCAA Tournament "locks," these being two of them. Ironically, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Creighton ended up finishing ahead of Seton Hall in the standings when all was said and done. But, here, I think the Blue Jays are laying too many points. Sure, they should be highly motivated after being routed by Xavier over the weekend (92-70). But this is a Seton Hall team that's already beaten them once, 90-84 as five point favorites, and given that result and corresponding spread, I'm a little "miffed" by the oddsmakers call for this one. Revenge can often be overrated in this sport and if Creighton does win here, it would likely be by the slimmest of margins. Prior to beating crushed at Xavier Saturday, Creighton's only loss in its previous 10 games was the one to Seton Hall. The Pirates have really had their number the last couple seasons, taking four of the previous five meetings. The last one, which saw both teams come in on the fringes of the Top 25, saw Seton Hall rally back from a 13-point 2H deficit. Since then, the Pirates' ranking has only continued to rise (currently #19). Creighton, meanwhile, won its next four games, but then was severely outclassed by Xavier. The Blue Jays committed 20 turnovers in the loss and second leading scorer Khyri Thomas was 0 for 8 from the field. This team is 40-18 ATS the last 58x it has been favored, plus 11-0 SU at home this year (averaging 93.5 PPG). So I understand, it's somewhat scary to fade them in this spot. But, realize that Seton Hall is 22-8 ATS the L30x it has been an underdog! There have been only two instances of the Pirates getting points this season. They won both outright. Both were narrow wins, at Butler and at Louisville, but that's impressive nonetheless. Now, Seton Hall was recently routed as well, losing 84-64 at Marquette last week. But they quickly bounced back to take care of Georgetown, 74-61 as 12-pt chalk, on Saturday. The Pirates come in averaging a healthy 80.0 PPG themselves, so it will be difficult to defeat them by any kind of margin. These teams just seem so close that it seems foolish to want to lay points. 8* Seton Hall |
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01-17-18 | Pelicans -2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 93-94 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (7:35 ET): Admittedly, this seems like a difficult spot for the visiting Pelicans, who are off a pretty thrilling overtime victory last night in Boston. But a similar spot (albeit in a different sport) didn't deter me from taking Dallas in NHL last night and nor will it deter me here where once I again I simply bank on the fact that the road team is significantly better than its host. In this case, we only have to lay a short number to go against an Atlanta team that has the worst SU record in all of basketball at 12-31 SU. Seems easy enough, no? Furthermore, it might be the Hawks that are in prime letdown mode here. On Monday, they upset San Antonio here at home, 102-99 (+5.5). Keep in mind that was a Spurs team that came into the game w/o Kwahi Leonard and then lost Manu Ginobili to injury in the 1st quarter. With an edge in both rebounds and fast break points, it seemed simply as if the Hawks "wanted" that one more than the Spurs did. But something to keep in mind is that this has not been a good team to bet when off a SU victory. They're just 1-10 SU in that role this season, 3-7-1 ATS. With the number so short in this one, a fade is heavily advised. New Orleans is looking for a fourth straight win here, which would be a season-high. This is the fourth time they've won three in a row. Anthony Davis has been just plain ridiculous lately w/ 93 pts and 33 rebounds the last two games. Yes, defensively, the Pelicans have their issues. Fortunate for them then that Atlanta isn't a great offensive team. Meanwhile, the Pelicans currently rank 7th in offensive efficiency (average 111.2 PPG). Something else to keep mind here is that New Orleans led Boston by double digits much of the way last night. So don't let the fact the game went into OT fool you. The Pelicans looked like the better side most of the way and that was against the #1 team in the league in defensive efficiency. They now have a winning road record this season. 8* New Orleans |
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01-17-18 | Tulsa v. Temple -6.5 | Top | 58-59 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
8* Temple (6:00 ET): This is not the same Temple team we've been accustomed to seeing through the years. They have just one conference win; ironically it came at SMU, who had a 33-game home win streak at the time. That's probably the most shocking singular result we've seen in AAC play so far this season. Unfortunately for the Owls though, they couldn't follow up. Saturday saw them lose here at home, in overtime and at the buzzer to UCF, 75-72. They were 7.5-pt favorites as Memphis had not won a road game all season prior to that. In their last five games, the Owls have lost by three points or fewer three times. Similar to yday's winner on Northern Iowa, I find it "curious" that a team near the bottom of their conference would be favored like this. It worked yday, so I'll lay it again! Tulsa hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire either. They come into tonight's game on a three-game losing skid. They did just take Wichita State to the limit on Saturday, losing only 72-69 as 12.5-pt home dogs. But I say it's fair to question what the Golden Hurricane will have left "in the reserve" here. They led by 10 in the first half, but attempting only five free throws (for the game!) really hurt. Also, while Tulsa may have started 3-0 in AAC play, let's remember how badly they were beaten last week in their most recent road game. It was a 104-71 loss at Houston. Their lone "true" road win this year came at Tulane on New Year's Eve. Temple actually has some revenge to exact here as they lost LY's only meeting, 70-68, right here in Philly. They also lost the second meeting of 2016, by 19, at Tulsa. With so many close calls in a 1-6 (SU) stretch, I have to believe the worm will soon "turn" for the Owls. Their shooting also has to improve, right? (Been below 35% three of the last four games). Tulsa allowed its opponents to shoot 55.2% and 50% in its previous two road games. Though they lost close last time out, the Golden Hurricane pulled off a number of close wins earlier in the year (beat UConn in 2OT), so their record could easily be worse. After playing well and coming up short against Wichita State, I see this being a major letdown spot on the road. 8* Temple |
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01-16-18 | Drake v. Northern Iowa -5.5 | Top | 54-68 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
10* Northern Iowa (8:00 ET): Needless to say, it had been a very bad stretch of results for Northern Iowa prior to Saturday's 81-76 win and cover (were 4-pt favorites) over Missouri Valley newbie Valaparaiso. They'd lost seven in a row and four of those (all to MVC opponents) had come by seven pts or less. Truth be told, the Panthers' RPI (outdated metric) was always a bit misleading anyway, but still, no one expected these kind of struggles once conference play hit. Good news tonight though; they'll host perennial MVC doormat Drake, a team whose number UNI has had for many years now. The last four matchups - whether your're talking SU or ATS - have all gone the Panthers way and I think they'll make it five straight after tonight. Lay the short number. Drake actually comes into tonight playing pretty well as they've won six of their last seven overall and are in first place in the Missouri Valley (5-1). Ironically, their lone conference loss came at the hands of Valparaiso, who is the only MVC team that UNI has beaten. But the Bulldogs have had a much different fortune in close games than has UNI, that being they're 3-0 SU in games decided by three points or less so far. It's pretty telling that the last place team in a conference would be favored over the first place team, even at home, isn't it? Drake used a strong 1st half to blow by Evansville over the weekend, 81-65, as they shot 54% from the floor. However, I think you still have to worry about this team away from home where they're just 4-8 SU (7-0 at home) and allowing 81.1 PPG. That includes "true" road games as well as neutral site affairs. Prior to beating Valpo, Northern Iowa had lost three in row here in Cedar Falls. That's after winning their first seven here. The key here will be pace of play. Drake is the most efficient offense team in the conference (so far) while Northern Iowa plays at one of the slowest paces in the entire country. I simply can't see teams continuing to make over 40% of their three-point shots against the Panthers moving forward. Nor can I see Drake continuing to shoot as well as it has to this point. Note that, at home, UNI still is allowing only 57 PPG. 10* Northern Iowa |
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01-16-18 | Pelicans v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:35 ET): Without even playing, the Celtics have gotten a lot of help in their quest to finish atop the Eastern Conference this year. Both Toronto and Cleveland have been losing of late, so the Celtics (who have been off for five days) now have a four game lead over the former and 7.5 game lead over the latter. Not that Boston necessarily wanted the time off. They are unbeaten in 2018 and have won seven in a row overall. Their latest triumph came last Thursday over in London where they overcame a 22-pt deficit to beat Philadelphia, 114-103 as 1.5-pt favorites. Tonight's line is every bit as curious as that one was, considering the Celtics remain the top ATS team in the sport. Lay the points against an inferior opponent. New Orleans is looking like it might be a playoff team this year. They haven't made the playoffs since being ousted as the 8-seed (by Golden State) three seasons ago. Certainly, it's going to be a tight race w/ four teams battling for those final three spots in the Western Conference as the Pelicans, Clippers, Nuggets and Blazers come into today separated by just one-half game in the standings. So its an important game from the New Orleans side. The Pelicans come off B2B wins, beating Portland and the Knicks, but both games could have gone either way and Sunday's win over the Knicks required overtime. That was w/ 48 pts and 17 rebounds from Anthony Davis and the Pelicans also rallied back from 14 down to start the 4th quarter. It was a fortunate win. Davis scored 36 against Portland, a game where the team shot almost 55% as a whole. Don't expect those kind of offensive number tonight though against a Boston team that leads the league in defensive efficiency by a comfortable margin. The Celtics are the ONLY team in the league that's allowing less than one point per possession. They are also 18-5 SU at home. New Orleans, meanwhile, is a terrible defensive team as they allow 111.0 PPG, third most in the league and not far from the bottom. Bottom line is that this is a bad matchup for the Pelicans, especially w/ it being their 2nd road game in three nights. Boston is both well rested and 5-1 SU the L3 seasons against New Orleans. 8* Boston |
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01-15-18 | Florida State -2.5 v. Boston College | Top | 75-81 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 56 m | Show |
8* Florida State (7:00 ET): Truth be told, I got very lucky w/ the Seminoles on Saturday. Hosting Syracuse, they blew a 10-pt halftime lead and had to go to overtime. But OT was actually a massive break for me as I was laying the points and for most of the second half, it appeared as if they had little shot to cover. The same held true in OT. Thankfully, the game then went into double OT and that's where the 'Noles took over, outscoring the Orange by 11 and getting the shocking cover. Playing on the road 48 hrs later hardly seems like an ideal spot to follow up w/ a play on them, but Boston College I believe is "ripe for the picking here." The Eagles faced Dartmouth over the weekend, making this a large step up in class for them. B.C. had lost three of four in ACC play prior to beating Dartmouth on Saturday. That includes a 30-pt loss at North Carolina in their last conference game. Dartmouth, predictably, was a much easier task, though the Eagles only led by three at halftime. They took over though after the break, thanks to guard Ky Bowman. Now B.C. did beat Duke here in Chesnut Hill earlier this season. They're 10-1 SU at home overall, outscoring opponents by 13 PPG. That one home loss came to Clemson, by four, right after the New Year. They've already faced most of the ACC heavyweights, not to mention a very good Texas Tech team in the non-conf portion of the schedule. However, I think it's important to remember this was just a nine-win team last season (already 12 wins TY!) including a 2-16 SU record in ACC play. I'm not sure they've improved to the point we should regularly expect them to be winning. Florida State should still find itself in the Top 25 when the new poll comes out. That's despite sustaining close losses to both Miami and Louisville prior to outlasting Syracuse. There is some concern here w/ leading scorer Terrance Mann potentially out due to a concussion. But the 'Noles are deep enough to overcome that, at least against this opponent. In last year's lone matchup w/ B.C., they won by 32. Has that much really changed in one year's time? The 'Noles were 19-pt favorites for that matchup as well. They have covered 7 of the 10 times they have been favored this season. 8* Florida State |
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01-15-18 | Maryland +7 v. Michigan | Top | 67-68 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
10* Maryland (6:30 ET): The Big 10 has become a lot more wide open, thanks to the sudden struggles of Michigan State. Michigan is one of the teams that recently beat Sparty, doing so on Saturday as they went into East Lansing and prevailed 82-72 as 9.5-pt underdogs. That impressive win for the Wolverines came on the heels of them losing by only one to mighty Purdue. Now comes the inevitable letdown though. It certainly seems dangerous to lay points w/ the Maize and Blue right now, given the emotion involved from the last two games. Maryland won't be lacking in motivation here as it was embarrassed at Ohio State on Thursday, 91-69. Having had the weekend off is a nice edge for the Terps. Take the points. Maryland has actually suffered two bad defeats in its last three games, the other coming at Michigan State. But other than that, they've played well. They'd won eight of nine heading into the Ohio State game where they shot just 36.7% from the floor while allowing the Buckeyes to make 56.1% of their field goal attempts. Sure enough, bad defense was also the culprit in the loss to Michigan State, but the good news is the Terrapins are 9-2 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 80+ pts the previous game. They just covered in this spot, in between the losses to Michigan State and Ohio State, beating Iowa 91-73 last Sunday. Injuries have taken a big toll on this team recently, but I think the extra time off will be a big "boon" Monday. Maryland hasn't played many close games recently, but they have been involved in six that were decided by six points or less this year. That includes two Big 10 victories, over Illinois and Penn State. Michigan comes in red hot, having won 8 of 9 w/ the only loss coming to Purdue. But this just seems like a good spot to fade as they're off a huge upset over a rival. They didn't cover their last game as a favorite, beating Illinois by only 10. Also, the last three meetings between these two have all been decided by seven points or less. Maryland won both games last year and I fully anticipate a close game at Crisler Arena tonight. In beating Michigan State, Michigan saw Sparty sink only three of 13 three-point attempts. Maryland will be more prolific than that tonight. 10* Maryland |
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01-15-18 | Bucks v. Wizards -4.5 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
8* Washington (2:05 ET): This is the second game of a back to back for Milwaukee (who really let me down yday) and third game in four days. An ugly showing Sunday in Miami (scored only 79 pts) made it four consecutive ATS losses (1-3 straight up), but they'll be getting no sympathy here from the Wizards, who are 0-5 ATS their L5 games and have revenge on their minds from a 110-103 loss to the Bucks right here in D.C. nine days ago. Note Washington has been a favorite in all five games it did not cover, so they still carry plenty of respect in the marketplace. They come in averaging a whopping 111.0 PPG at home and I really like this spot for them, given the scheduling set up and revenge angle. Lay the points. Note that I actually played AGAINST the Wiz Saturday night when they hosted Brooklyn. I caught a major break w/ the Nets being able to force overtime as they trailed by as many as 23 pts. For Washington, that night found them playing in the second game of a back to back (just like Milwaukee here. A lack of consistency in closing out games is a bit of a concern w/ this Washington team as there have been multiple instances this year of them blowing double digit leads and losing. But, I think, being able to still win Saturday night is a step in the right direction. They never trailed in the game, despite it going to OT. Offensively, there are no issues with this team right now. Their top two scorers - Beal and Wall - shot a combined 12 of 38 in the 1st meeting w/ the Bucks, but I can't see that happening again given how poor the Bucks' defense has been of late. Opponents shoot better than 40% from three-point range, on the road, for the season. Milwaukee shot only 31.6% from the floor yesterday in its 97-79 loss at Miami. This team has been outscored on the year and is overrated. In fact, they have a worse YTD point differential than do the 16-25 Hornets! I just can't see the winning twice here in D.C. in a nine-day span. Yes, they'll probably shoot significantly better here compared to yday. But a decline in defense should offset that. Interestingly enough, the last visit to the Nation's capital saw the Bucks off a double digit loss and playing the second game of a back to back. But consecutive day games is a rare thing in this league and certainly won't help. 8* Washington |
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01-14-18 | St. Joe's v. Massachusetts -1.5 | Top | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
10* UMass (5:00 ET): Looking back at the preseason projections, St. Joe's probably wasn't banking on coming in as an underdog to UMass (even here in Amherst) nor being only 7-8 SU at this point of the season. Keep in mind they recently beat both VCU and St. Bonaventure as well, albeit both at home. The Hawks have been one of the A-10's bigger disappointments thus far and that continued earlier this week when they were beaten by George Mason at the buzzer. Now they find themselves playing a second straight road game for the first time since November. Sure, they're 5-2 ATS as a dog this season, but they've still been outscored by an average of over five points per game in those contests. They have just two wins away from home all year (2-7 SU) w/ the lone "true" road win coming all the way back in the 2nd game against IL-Chicago. So as you can sense, I'll be on the other side Sunday afternoon. UMass comes in off an 86-79 win over LaSalle (here at home) and an upset at Dayton before that. Not a ton was expected of the Minutemen coming into the season, but they are 8-2 SU at home and that's where this game is taking place! Now the teams has gone to overtime twice in it last three games, winning one and losing the other. They had to overcome a 21-pt deficit against LaSalle on Wednesday and needed a program-record 44 pts from Luwane Pipkins to do it, eventually prevailing 86-79 in OT. That win came on the heels of another come from behind effort, this one at Dayton as eight-point underdogs (won 62-60). Those two close wins were long overdue as previously the Minutemen had gone only 1-5 SU in games decided by six points or less, or overtime. I look for UMass to have a strong game offensively here. They already are shooting 47.6% from the floor at home this year, including 39.5% from three-point range. St. Joe's isn't exactly what I'd call "stout" defensively as they allow 76.7 PPG. Meanwhile, the Hawks have somehow been able to average 77.8 PPG in conference play despite barely shooting 40% from the floor. That isn't likely to continue. Coming off a loss at the buzzer, you have to question the Hawks mindset here and I think they'll struggle to contain Pipkins and the Minutemen's other top scorer, Carl Pierre, as well. 10* UMass |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 113 h 57 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (1:05 ET): All the way back in Week 9, the Jaguars beat the Steelers 30-9, right here in Pittsburgh. The final score was misleading though. Total yardage was actually in favor of the Steelers (371-313), yet that hardly mattered as Ben Roethlisberger threw a career-high 5 INT's, two of them returned for Jaguars' touchdowns (in a three-minute span). Jags RB Leonard Fournette then gallivanted his way for a 90-yard touchdown late to make the game REALLY seem like a blowout. Oddsmakers seem unfazed by the result, essentially installing the Steelers as the same size favorite for Sunday's rematch. So now worries for those Terrible Towel wavers, right? After all, Big Ben is highly unlikely to toss another five interceptions here and no team has ever won in Pittsburgh twice in the same season. Well, except the 2007 Jaguars. But that's irrelevant to the discussion, right? Probably, but I'm taking the points anyway. I don't think Pittsburgh is as good as its 13-3 SU record would seem to indicate. They may come into the playoffs as the "hottest" team (won 10 of 11), but their +98 point differential was "only" 7th best in the league (barely ahead of the rival Ravens, who didn't make the playoffs). The key to their record was a league-high eight wins by a TD or less (lost only two such games, ironically one of which came to the Patriots, costing them homefield). Also, despite being off a bye week, it's not like they're w/o attrition. WR Antonio Brown is still recovering from a calf injury. While he's expected to play, the league's top receiver won't be at 100 percent and that's a problem going against the league's top pass defense. On the other side of the ball, CB Artie Burns is still battling knee issues and is one of three defensive players listed as questionable. Then there is the ongoing sage of RB Le'Veon Bell, who essentially told the front office they better not franchise him in the offseason. That could be a distraction. As for the Jags, their 10-3 Wild Card win over Buffalo was about as unimpressive as it gets. But there's plenty of reason to like this team in an underdog role Sunday. As mentioned before, they come in w/ the top ranked pass defense in the league. Both times the team was a road dog of 3.5 to 7 pts in the regular season, they won and (obviously) covered. Jacksonville actually outscored its regular season opponents by a wider margin than did Pittsburgh, ranking third in the league in point differential, trailing only New England and Philadelphia (each conference's top seed). Jacksonville also impressively swept the AFC North (Pittsburgh's division) this year, going 4-0 SU/ATS. The Jags top-ranked rushing offense should find success against a Steelers' defense that ranks just 20th at stopping the run. In the reg season matchup, Fournette went for a career-best 181 yds w/ TWO TD's. 10* Jacksonville |
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01-14-18 | Bucks +2 v. Heat | Top | 79-97 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (1:05 ET): Truthfully, I'm not too surprised where each of these teams currently reside in the Eastern Conference pecking order as I wasn't quite as high on Milwaukee as some (coming into the season) while Miami made my list for Most Likely To Improve. However, said improvement for the Heat hadn't really taken hold until this month where they've now won six in a row, the latest two coming on the road against Toronto and Indiana. The Heat have certainly had ample time to prepare for this game as in three days off since those pair of outright victories (were +4 in both games). But this is a team that's still been outscored over the course of the season. You could say the same for Milwaukee, but they have the better efficiency numbers as well. Take the points. The Bucks come into this game off a home loss to Golden State on Friday. In that game, they were able to overcome a 14-pt halftime deficit, even taking the lead after three quarters, yet still wound up losing by 14 anyway as they were outscored 28-12 in the fourth. There was no Steph Curry for the Dubs either. Yet, I hardly would call that a "bad" loss for the team and the good news here is that the Bucks have been alternating wins and losses for the first two weeks of 2018. By that measure, they're "due" for a win here. Don't look for them to shoot as poorly here as they did against the Warriors (42.4%) nor allow the same kind of shooting percentage they did against the defending champs (55.0%). This is a team that actually averages more points per game on the road than at home. Miami 'fans' are thinking about last year when the team went on an amazing 13-game run right around this time of the season. However, note that this six-game stretch has hardly been dominant; every win has come by single digits, two of them by a single point and another in overtime. What's also been key for the Heat is a 14-4 SU record against teams below .500. Prior to the previous two games, they'd been just 8-13 SU vs. winning teams. They've been surprisingly bad at home so far (11-9 SU, 5-13-2 ATS) and are clearly overachieving given they're just 6-11 ATS when favored. Milwaukee is the better team here and getting points. Miami is just 3-7 ATS this year off a SU win as a dog. 10* Milwaukee |
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01-13-18 | Titans +14 v. Patriots | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 7 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (8:15 ET): No one, and I do mean NO ONE is going to give the Titans a chance in this one. Why should they? This is a team that was outscored during the regular season, only to own seven victories by a TD or less. The most recent came on Wild Card Weekend, in improbable fashion, as they rallied back from a 21-3 deficit to defeat Kansas City 22-21 as 9-pt underdogs. Now they must travel to Foxboro to take on the defending Super Bowl Champion Patriots, who are rested and highly unlikely to lose. Thankfully, however, we don't need anything close to a SU win here. The oddsmakers (predictably) are being all too generous in this one, installing Tennessee as a near 2-TD dog. My own power rankings say the spread should be closer to 10. I, for one, don't believe New England is as impervious as they're made out to be, thus I'm fading them in this spot. Take the points. Last week saw the Titans take advantage of a suspect Chiefs' defense, one that has been "bend but don't break" for years under Andy Reid. KC was middle of the road in PPG allowed during the regular season (21.2), but 28th in yards at 365.1. I bring this up because New England's own "bend but don't break" mentality is far more severe. The Patriots are a completely misleading 5th in points allowed (18.5 per game) coming into this game as they happen to also rank 29th in yards allowed per game (366.0). Eventually, that catches up w/ a defense. For all the talk about how weak the AFC South (Tennessee's division) is, New England gets to play six games every year against Buffalo, Miami and the Jets. No wonder they win 12+ games every year. Then there is the matter of the reported inner turmoil engulfing the Patriots' organization. Normally, I put very little stock into such stuff, but here it makes sense. Also, both coordinators (Josh McDaniel and Matt Patricia) may very well have "one foot out the door" at this point as both are heavily rumored to be taking head coaching jobs elsewhere next season. The Patriots are not "as dominant as ever" in 2017 as they were only +28.1 YPG and barely outgained their opponents on a per play basis (6.1 to 6.0). That number of YPP allowed was one of the worst marks in the league. I like the Tennessee offense better w/ Derrick Henry as the feature back as he had 147 yds in the 2nd half alone last week. New England's defense ranks 31st against the run. I don't think this will be a blowout. 8* Tennessee |
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01-13-18 | Nets +9.5 v. Wizards | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:05 ET): Second night of a back to back for the Wizards and I don't trust them enough to cover against a lesser opponent following a SU win. Last night saw them down the atrocious Magic, 125-119, a game which featured little to no defense (both teams scored 30+ in each of the first three quarters!), but Washington failed to cover as 10.5-pt chalk. That makes it four ATS losses in a row for them. Brooklyn comes in on a bit of an ATS role having covered seven of its last eight games, including an outright win last night in Atlanta as 2.5-pt dogs. So often, we see a team playing on the road and w/o rest be undervalued. I believe that to be the case here. Take the points. Washington is now just 8-20 ATS as a favorite and 8-16 ATS vs. teams w/ losing records. They've allowed 100 pts in 13 consecutive games, so it would take a really impressive outburst offensively for them to cover a spread as large as this. They couldn't last night, despite shooting 56.8% from the field. Now they were only 4 of 16 from three-point range, but any gains made in that area tonight will be offset by the extreme likelihood of them not coming anywhere close to going 50 of 79 (63.1%!) from two-point range again. The 74 pts scored in the paint last night were a season-high. The Wizards were very lucky that Orlando missed 16 of its 22 field goal attempts in the 4th quarter, because before that they were at 60 percent for the game themselves! Washington is just plain bad defensively as they are allowing an average of 107.8 pts the L5 games. Brooklyn is far more respectable this season than in year's past as they're "only" being outscored by an average of 2.8 points per game (-6.7 PPG last year). While they are by no means a good shooting team they should find success against a leaky Wizards defense for all the reasons listed above. Also, it's not like the Nets haven't found success against the Wiz this season. They're 2-0 SU/ATS in head to head matchups, including a 119-84 win last month where they led by as many as 40 points! Washington has been pretty dreadful in revenge spots this season. Most shocking of all is the level of defense the Nets have played against the Wiz this year, holding them to an average of 91 PPG on less than 40% shooting, including 9 of 42 from three-point range. 10* Brooklyn |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles +3 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 92 h 17 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (4:30 ET): For the 1st time ever, we have a #6 seed favored over a #1 seed in the Divisional Round. In fact, according to my own research this will be just the third time under the current playoff format (dates back to 1990) that the team coming off a bye is a dog. The first two instances, both recent, have produced mixed results. The first occurred in 2011 w/ the Alex Smith-led 49ers beating the Saints 36-32 as 4-pt pups in a great game. The next time (2013) again involved the 49ers, but this time the proverbial "shoe was on the other foot" as they came in as 1.5-pt faves at Carolina and won 23-10. There really was no extenuating circumstance as two why either home team was a dog in those two situations, other than that they were considered inferior to their opponent. Here, there is most definitely an "extenuating circumstance." The Eagles are w/o their starting QB Carson Wentz, a MVP candidate that was lost to a season-ending injury late in the regular season. Even if you are adamant about Wentz's importance to the team, it is difficult to justify the change in spread here. My own power rankings, if Wentz were playing, would have the Eagles laying about a touchdown. Even Wentz's biggest supporters could not possibly claim he's worth 10 pts to the spread, a number only reserved for the likes of Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady and even they may not be worth quite that much. Philly is 7-1 SU at home this year, their lone loss coming in the meaningless regular season finale when they rested key players. Yes, I know the offense did not look good in the last two games. But, the coaching staff and first team offense has now had ample time to prepare for Nick Foles being the starter. Foles has been a starter before in this league and looked good against the Giants three weeks ago. The Eagles have a good enough team where the QB does not have to carry them. Atlanta impressed many w/ their 26-13 win at Los Angeles last week. However, that was in many ways a "phony blowout." The Falcons were actually outgained 361-322 w/ the difference being 10 pts off two costly Rams' special teams turnovers. Also, there was a late "goal line stand" where the Rams normally would have kicked a FG and it appeared on 4th down that the Falcons got away w/ pass interference. Just last year, the Eagles' defense shut down a far more potent Falcons' offense, holding them to a season-low 15 pts. As discussed in last week's analysis (had Under Atlanta-LA), this year's Falcons' offense is scoring way less than LY (22.3 PPG vs. 34 PPG). Though the weather isn't expected to be nasty Saturday night, Atlanta still is a dome team playing outdoors. Sure, they won last week, but that was in warm in LA where the homefield advantage is about as minimal as anywhere in the league. I expect Foles to play well here and the Eagles' defense (#1 in the league against the run!) to be the difference maker. Atlanta may very well run out of gas after needing to beat Carolina in the reg season finale, then flying out West LW to beat the Rams (now coming back East). They are just 3-6 ATS this year on the road. 10* Philadelphia |
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01-13-18 | Oregon +9 v. Arizona | Top | 83-90 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
8* Oregon (2:00 ET): The Ducks came up big for me on Thursday, upsetting what was a highly overrated Arizona State team. Naturally, you'd call for a letdown here, but they're getting points against an Arizona team that has its own set of problems right now. Wildcats HC Sean Miller recently went on the record, saying he can't get his team "to play for him" and "can't reach" them. I don't think a solitary win over Oregon State (didn't cover) Thursday at home was the cure-all either. Now you may be wondering what Miller is taking about considering his team is 13-4 SU and ranked 17th in the country. But more was expected from this team, even if they still should be considered the "class" of the Pac 12. Take the points here. Back to back wins over ranked opponents, both on the road no less, would obviously be huge for Oregon. Remember the Ducks were a Final Four team last year. Now they did lose a ton from that team, but HC Dana Altman is 30-15 ATS the L3 seasons in Pac 12 play and 26-9 ATS off a conference win. The Ducks destroyed Arizona State on the interior Thursday, outscoring the Sun Devils 38-16 in the paint and 15 offensive rebounds led to 15 second chance points. They are the 1st road team to win in Tempe this season. Now can they turn the trick in Tucson? History says "yes" as they are 21-5 ATS their L26 games against teams averaging 77+ PPG (Arizona comes in averaging 82.5). Oregon averages 81.3 PPG themselves, so they can hang. Arizona is only 5-10 ATS when favored this season. They're also just 2-8 ATS against teams that have winning records. So you can start to understand Miller's criticism. It came after a loss at Colorado last Saturday. They never led in that game and it simply wasn't as close as the 80-77 final suggests as the Wildcats shot just 30 percent in the 1st half and fell behind 45-29. The 62-53 win over Oregon State was also a tad bit misleading as they trailed at the half and did not start to pull away until the final six minutes of the game. It helped that they were facing a drastically inferior opponent that shot only 39.3% from the floor. But Arizona only scored 62 and like Oregon State, the Ducks employ a zone (which always seems to befuddle the Wildcats). Also, the Ducks won't be lacking in confidence here as they won their last visit to Tucson, which ended Arizona's 49-game home win streak. 8* Oregon |
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01-13-18 | Syracuse v. Florida State -5.5 | Top | 90-101 | Win | 100 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
10* Florida State (2:00 ET): This is a spot that I'm all too apt to jump on as the home favorite is off a SU loss (in that same role) its last time out. Florida State lost to Louisville on Wednesday, 73-69 as 6.5-pt chalk, but lucky for them Syracuse is not Louisville. This is a really crucial game for the 'Noles as they've dropped three of four (every loss by 7 pts or less), but note the one win during this stretch came over North Carolina (here in Tallahassee). The L'ville loss was their first at home all season. This is a team I still have ranked in my top 30 nationally. As for Syracuse, not only are they not Louisville, they're not even your usual Orange squad under Jim Boeheim. They've lost three straight ACC games following the usual Jim Boeheim cupcake-filled non-conference schedule (bereft of "true" road games). Lay the points For the record, it's not just me that thinks highly of the Seminoles. They come into this game ranked #23 in the country (loss occured after latest poll was released). The loss also snapped a 28-game home win streak. It's not like they came out of the gates slowly either. They had a 13-pt halftime lead and it was looking like they were well on their way to another home victory. But after connecting on 18 of 39 FG attempts in the 1st half, they went just 8 of 26 from the field in the 2H. It also didn't help that they committed six turnovers in the first six minutes after halftime. This is a squad that averages 83.6 PPG overall and 88.9 at home. So, they were held well under their scoring average. I don't expect that to be the case for a second straight game. Like FSU, Syracuse's three ACC losses have all been by seven points or less. The win came against Virginia Tech. Despite a relatively strong defense (trademark zone!), the Orange can't seem to hit "water from a boat" themselves as they're off B2B sub-40% efforts from the field, averaging just 55 PPG. If you can't win a game, at home, where you hold the opposition to a 30.0 FG% (like the 'Cuse did vs. Notre Dame), then I don't know what to say. Even against said zone, I expect FSU to shoot better from three-point range than they have in their L2 games (27.1%). This is a brutal spot for the Orange, who simply lack offensive firepower, three days after playing on the road at Virginia. They got all of ZERO bench pts in that game. That won't cut it. 10* Florida State |
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01-12-18 | Grizzlies +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 78-87 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
10* Memphis (9:05 ET): I came into this season thinking it wouldn't be a particularly good one for the Grizzlies. However, I had no idea things could get this dire. They enter Friday w/ the second worst record in the Western Conference, only one-half game ahead of Sacramento. Injuries, particularly Mike Conley's Achilles, have been the primary culprit, but at least the team is showing signs of life lately. They've at least been competitive in going 5-1 ATS the L6 games and just beat New Orleans on Wednesday, 105-102, as a small home underdog. They're getting enough points here where I like them against a Denver team that is on a season-worst three-game losing skid w/ two of those defeats coming to Sacramento and Atlanta. Take the points. The Nuggets are thought to have one of the strongest home court advantages in the league. They are 14-5 SU here and averaging 110.9 points per game. But they lost, to Atlanta, last time out. They scored only 97 points (on 40.0% shooting) and what's key here is the Hawks are one of the few teams in the league w/ a worse record than the Grizzlies. Also, as mentioned above, the Nuggets also recently lost to the Kings, albeit that was on the road and they (Denver) were in a horrible scheduling spot. Still, if the Nuggets want to be a playoff team, they can't be losing to such opponents. They are only 9-12 ATS vs. teams w/ losing records this season. Memphis is still w/o Conley and Chandler Parsons, but is in a good place due to the schedule. Playing in Denver in the second night of a back to back is terrible, but not only did the Grizz have last night off, they've played just one time in the previous six days! They were able to beat the Pelicans despite not even shooting the ball very well (42.0%) and lost to the Wizards by only two points despite shooting even worse (40.7%). Yes, both those games were at home, but the team has shot better than 52% in two of its previous three road games. This is a team that's only being outscored by 3.3 PPG on the season. While Denver just got beat by Sacramento, the Grizzlies hammered the Kings the week before (also in Sacramento), by 18 points. (They were in the second game of a back to back as well). I expect this to be a close game. 10* Memphis |
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01-12-18 | Nebraska +7 v. Penn State | Top | 74-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
10* Nebraska (7:00 ET): The Big 10 weekend slate gets started a little early in Happy Valley as Penn State hosts Nebraska Friday night. In what is a VERY top-heavy league this year, these two squads are presumed for the "middle of the pack," but Nebraska comes into tonight actually tied for 4th at 3-2 SU (12-6 overall). Penn State has the same overall record, but is 2-3 SU in Big 10 play. Granted, the Nittany Lions' three losses have all come by margins of six points or fewer, but they've also yet to play either of the two heavyweights - Michigan State and Purdue. Those two are who handed Nebraska its two losses and both games were on the road. Last time out, the Cornhuskers upended Wisconsin (in Lincoln) 63-59 as 1.5-pt faves. The 'Huskers led by as many as 13 in the 2H vs. Wisconsin in what (as you can see by the line) was no upset. Now, free throws were a key in the win as Nebraska went 21 of 28 from the line while Wisconsin was just 4 of 10. They probably can't count on such an edge taking place here tonight, on the road. State College has also not been kind to them as they've won just one of their previous six visits here. But might this team be a little different as it has gone 3-2 SU against five NCAA Tourney teams from LY? This has been a strong spread team as well (11-5 ATS overall) and they play defense too. Their last three opponents have been held to 42.4%, 44.3% and 29.2% overall from the floor and all were Big 10 teams. Even better is that none of the three shot better than 29% from three-point range (key!). While Nebraska was beating Wisconsin on Tuesday, Penn State lost to Indiana despite outshooting the Hoosiers, pretty drastically. The Nittany Lions finished 50% from the floor while IU was at just 40%. How then, do we explain that result? Well, the bench was outscored 25-1 and IU made 18 of its 22 free throws while Penn State made just 12 of its 18. Also, the Nittany Lions committed 14 turnovers to the Hoosiers' nine. But consider this: PSU's top two players - Carr and Stevens - combined for 48 pts and they still lost (on an overall good shooting night for the team). Nebraska managed to defeat Wisconsin despite shooting only 5 of 19 from three-point range. This spread is too high. Penn State, keep in mind, lost to Rider back on 12.22. 10* Nebraska |
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01-11-18 | Oregon +8 v. Arizona State | Top | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
10* Oregon (10:00 ET): I think I speak for many when I say that I never took Arizona State seriously, not even as the Sun Devils could still claim to be one of the few remaining unbeatens in the country. They got as high as #2 in the polls, but this is barely a Top 25 team in my opinion. So, OK, they did win at Kansas in their lone "true" non-conference road game. They also upset Xavier here in Tempe. But a team that was projected to finish as low as sixth this year in the Pac 12 has predictably come back "down to Earth" now that conference play has commenced. ASU lost B2B games at Arizona and Colorado to bookend the New Year and followed that up w/ a close call in Salt Lake earlier this week (beat Utah by three). I'll take the points here as the (now) #11 team in the country is still due to tumble down the rankings a bit more. Oregon comes into this game well-rested. They're also angry as last Friday saw them fall to rival Oregon State, in Corvallis, 76-64 as 2.5-pt favorites. It was the second time in three Pac 12 games that the Ducks lost outright as favorites as they also lost at home to Utah in the opener (beat Colorado in between). This will be the 1st time in conference play that they are getting points. It's only the third time all season that the Ducks have been a dog. They're 8-3 ATS in that role the L3 seasons, not to mention they're also 6-1 ATS the L7x they have taken the court w/ five or six days rest. They've also been exceptional against high scoring teams such as ASU, going 20-5 ATS their L25 games vs. opponents that average 77+ PPG. Now Arizona State has enjoyed its own success at the betting window this year, covering all but two lined games, one of those coming when they were 38-pt favorites. They're also 9-0 ATS this season after scoring 80+ pts the previous game and haven't lost at home. This is their first time hosting in Pac 12 play as the first three games were all on the road. That said, their recent shooting decline is a concern and I don't think a simple return to Tempe is a "cure-all." Oregon (a Final Four team LY, remember!) can both rebound (+6.0 rpg) and defend (opponents shooting below 40% for the year) and that can keep an underdog in any game. 10* Oregon |
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01-11-18 | Clippers v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 121-115 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (10:05 ET): The Kings are, in my opinion, the worst team in basketball. Sure, there are teams w/ worse records (two to be precise) and they are tied w/ two others (Lakers, Grizzlies) for the worst record in the Western Conference. But no team in the league can "touch" their -8.7 PPG scoring differential. That being said, there are two factors pointing to me taking the points here. One is that they are at home. Whereas the Kings are being outscored by double digits on the road, they're "only" -5.7 PPG at home and a respectable 7-12 straight up. They even won outright over Denver here, last Saturday, 106-98 while taking 8.5 pts from the oddsmakers. That win is relevant to the discussion here because like the Nuggets there, Sacramento's opponent for tonight is coming in w/o rest. Take the points. Not only are the Clippers coming into this game w/o rest, it also happens to be a massive letdown spot as last night saw them STUN Golden State, 125-106 as 12-pt underdogs. That game was in Oracle Arena too and the Clips were short-handed (no Blake Griffin)! They absolutely destroyed the Dubs on the glass, outrebounding them 61-37, but the real story was Lou Williams scoring a career-best (easily!) 50 points. Needless to say, Williams probably won't come close to that point total tonight nor will reserve Tyrone Wallace be scoring 22 pts here (That was his career-high last night as well!). Furthermore, the Clippers have been absolutely dreadful in the second of back to back games this season, going 0-6 straight up. This is not a good spot for them. The Kings have won just one of their previous six games and just lost at the Lakers, by double digits, scoring only 86 points. Prior to that, they did play San Antonio tough here at home (lost by only 7) and then there was the win over Denver. They also beat Cleveland here at home right before the New Year. I know it seems a little scary taking the Kings in this price range, but when the Clippers visited earlier in the year, it was only a two-point game. Following last night's huge win, there is simply no way that the Clips will be able to have the same intensity and it really can't be overstated just how short-handed they are right now (as many as six players out!). 10* Sacramento |
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01-10-18 | Colorado v. USC -11 | Top | 58-70 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
10* USC (10:00 ET): This is a classic set up w/ the favorite off a SU loss (as road favorites) taking on an underdog off a PAIR of outright wins as a dog. Things aren't going quite as planned for Andy Enfield's USC Trojans as they'll enter this game w/ only an 11-6 SU record. This is a team that was predicted to finish 2nd in the Pac 12, prior to the start of this campaign. But they've already lost twice in conference play, one of those coming at Stanford (77-76) their last time out. The Trojans were five-point favorites in that contest. They'll be favored again tonight as they host a Colorado team that has to be feeling pretty good about itself following upsets of Arizona State and Arizona. But both upsets took place in Boulder. Not here. Lay the points. USC's loss to Stanford was as brutal as it gets as the Cardinal's Deajon Davis hit a 50-foot desperation heave at the buzzer to win the game. The Trojans had led by 11 at the half and by as many as 15. Considering Stanford was coming off a double OT game three nights prior, blowing that kind of lead - even on the road - should not happen. Southern Cal is now just 5-6 SU its last 11 games, including a home loss (in OT) to Princeton. That said, this is still a good offensive team that averages 83.5 PPG at home. They have three losses by two points or less or in overtime. I anticipate them going on a bit of run here w/ a favorable stretch of games this month, making tonight a good "buy low" situation. Following a SU loss this year, the Trojans have gone 4-1 ATS w/ the avg MOV coming by double digits. Meanwhile, now would be an opportune time to "sell high" on Colorado. As stated above, the Buffaloes just upset both Arizona schools and did it as nine (Arizona St) and 8.5 (Arizona) pt underdogs respectively. ASU was one of the final teams to suffer a loss nationally, but is way overrated. Arizona is also struggling right now, something their own HC will readily admit. A huge key here is venue as "true" road games have been unkind to CU. They are 0-4 SU/ATS in them, including double digit losses at both Oregon and Oregon State in Pac 12 play. So, it's been a very different Buffaloes team we've seen on the road compared to Boulder. This game is in L.A., so it's a no-brainer. 10* USC |
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01-10-18 | Thunder +4 v. Wolves | Top | 88-104 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): Last night saw OKC stop back home for the only time in a six-game stretch. They lost, 117-106, to Portland as eight-point favorites. It was their second consecutive SU loss in that price range as the game prior saw them suffer an embarrassing double-digit defeat in Phoenix. Meanwhile, Minnesota is off arguably its most impressive win of the Tom Thibodeau-era as they waxed Cleveland 127-99 here at home Monday night. So, the two Northwest Division foes head into tonight's game feeling quite different. I can see this being a potential 1st round (#4 vs. #5) playoff matchup and being that it's a national TV game, the Thunder aren't about to take it lightly, especially given what's happened to them the L2 games. I'm also banking on the T'wolves not being as sharp as they were last tine out. Take the points. One thing the Thunder have going for them here is that they are a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season. Not only that, they won all four times straight up! Despite the respective records and recent form, I still believe OKC to be the better of the two teams here. Already, this will be the fourth meeting of the season between the pair and Minnesota has gone 3-0 ATS in the previous three. However, all three games were decided by four points or less and by nine points total! The Thunder did win the last one SU though, 111-107 as five-point chalk, for what was at the time their first win all season by eight points or less. (They've subsequently won eight such games!). The first two meetings (both won by Minnesota) were played very early in the season and one of them was decided on a buzzer-beater. This will be the final meeting of the regular season and I'm guessing OKC is going to want to make a statement. Now the Thunder failed to make a statement last night, losing at home to a Portland team that was w/o its best player (Damian Lillard). They did not shoot nor defend well. Here's the thing though; OKC is a far better defensive team than Minnesota as the two teams rank 6th and 19th respectively in efficiency at that end of the floor. Now the T'wolves have led by 34 and 41 points in each of their last two games and could get PG Jeff Teague back. But what goes up, must come down, and in this case I'm riding w/ a Thunder team that rarely catches points like they are here. 10* Oklahoma City |
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01-09-18 | Georgetown +6.5 v. St. John's | Top | 69-66 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
8* Georgetown (6:30 ET): There seems to be a bit of a desire (from the general public) to play AGAINST Pat Ewing's Hoyas these days. That probably has a lot to do w/ all we've heard about just how weak the Hoyas' non-conference schedule was. Ironically, G'town wasn't a good bet in the non-conference as they often faced lofty spreads and weren't covering them. But now that Big East play has started and they're a dog every time, we've seen more ATS success. Yes, they were severely routed by Creighton over the weekend, 90-66, as six-point home dogs. But prior to that, they'd gone 2-0-1 ATS in conference games, upsetting DePaul and losing to Butler (2 OT) by just two points (pushed as nine-point dogs at Marquette). Here, Ewing is fortunate to be facing St. John's at a time when the Red Storm have lost four in a row and will be w/o second leading scorer Marcus LoVett. Take the points. The build up for this game will center around the two coaches, Ewing and Chris Mullin, each of whom led their respective alma maters to greatness over 30 years ago. That makes sense, but also masks the fact both teams are struggling right now. St. John's, like G'town, is off an ugly loss as they were beaten at home (as seven-point favorites), 91-74 by DePaul. The Red Storm have played two Big East home games thus far and lost them by a combined 39 points. They're off to an 0-4 start in conference play and that is largely owed to some terrible defensive efforts. They're giving up 84.5 PPG on 49.8% shooting in league play. There seemed to be a real lack of effort at defending the three-point line vs. DePaul. G'town is 3-0 ATS the L3 times it has been a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and 17-7 ATS its last 24. St. John's clearly misses LoVett (knee) and as a result one player (Shamorie Ponds) has had to carry the scoring burden. Ponds has really struggled to shoot the ball of late, including a 7 of 24 effort in the loss to DePaul. Again, the Red Storm just lost - at home - by 17 points to DePaul. That is not good. Georgetown has a sizable (pun intended!) edge in the frontcourt and I anticipate them exploiting that. The Hoyas might never have been as good as their record this season, but they are worth taking plus the points here in what could be an outright upset. 8* Georgetown |
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01-08-18 | Alabama -4 v. Georgia | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -105 | 149 h 60 m | Show |
10* Alabama (8:45 ET): It's an all-SEC National Championship Game and so it's only appropriate that it will be played in Atlanta. Strangely enough, Alabama and Georgia don't play all that often. This will be just the fifth meeting in the Nick Saban-era (and only the 3rd since '09) and first w/ his fmr DC Kirby Smart as Georgia HC. UGA last beat 'Bama in '07 (Saban's 1st year) and hasn't visited Tuscaloosa since. The last meeting, held two seasons ago in Athens, was won by the Crimson Tide 38-10, as 1.5-pt dogs. The Tide also beat the 'Dawgs here in Atlanta (in the Georgia Dome) back in the 2012 SEC Championship. Ironically, Bama has played the team they just ousted from the playoff, Clemson, more times in the L3 seasons than they have this conference rival. So this is really nothing like the last all-SEC National Champ Game, Bama vs. LSU, back in '11. Alabama beat Clemson in the CFB Semifinal (Sugar Bowl), 24-6, as 3.5-pt favorites. That was a heavily hyped revenge game from LY's Champ Game and the end of a compelling trilogy. Compared to most games, and particularly UGA's Rose Bowl win over Oklahoma (more on that later), Bama-Clemson III was a real defensive affair. The Tide held the Tigers to just 188 total yards (gained only 261 themselves). A late INT return made the final score seem more lopsided than the game actually was (10-6 game late in 3Q). That said, Bama remains the dominant force in College Football. They are #1 in the country in defensive efficiency, key because UGA is #2! The key is they allow 4.6 PPG fewer than the Bulldogs. In 9 of 13 games, they've allowed 10 pts or less. This is a team that has won 40 of its last 43 games straight up, including 24 of 26 against the SEC. They've won 11 straight games on turf (9-2 ATS). While playing for the National Championship has become "old hat" for Saban and Alabama, Georgia is gunning for its 1st title since 1980, the days of Herschel Walker! Don't be surprised if the spot is a little "big for them." QB Jake Fromm is a true frosh and no team has won a Nat'l Title w/ a true frosh as its starting QB since '85. Yes, they were facing Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl, but the defense giving up 48 pts and 531 total yds is a little concerning, no? Also, there's the matter of Smart being a Saban disciple. Saban is 11-0 SU all-time against former assistants w/ every game decided by at least two touchdowns. Talk about the teacher knowing how to beat the student. Yes, these teams are built similarly, but Bama is better and used to the stage. I don't make a habit of betting against Nick Saban and won't here. Remember that Georgia did lose at Auburn earlier this year, 40-17. 10* Alabama |
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01-08-18 | Cavs -1 v. Wolves | Top | 99-127 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): In the past, I've been quite criticial of Cleveland and their inability to defend well. They come into this game ranked a rather unsightly 27th in defensive efficiency after allowing 127 pts in a win (!) over Orlando Saturday night. As a result, the Cavs have been HUGE money-burners in the favorite role this season, now 6-24 against the spread. So, what's w/ the endorsement here? Well, Minnesota happens to be a good matchup for LeBron and company as the Timberwolves are in the same boat in terms of offensive vs. defensive splits. While ranking 5th in offensive efficiency (Cavs are 3rd), the T'wolves are 20th on the defensive end. They have also struggled against the East this year, going just 2-11 ATS (4-10 SU). Fortunately for Cleveland, they were able to turn in one of their highest scoring efforts of the year Saturday in Orlando, finishing the game w/ a 131 pts on relatively mediocre shooting. They built a lead as large as 20 pts going into the 4Q, which is when the poor defense made things closer than they ought to have been. (Magic scored 40 pts in the 4Q). Still, as you can tell, there is nothing wrong w/ the Cavs offensively right now as they come into tonight averaging 110.5 PPG. Unlike most of their games, there's no real worries about a pointspread here as a SU win basically equates to a cover. Remember that Isaiah Thomas is now in the Cavs lineup as well. It's a small sample size, but the two games where Thomas has played have seen the team average 129 pts! Minnesota has been unusually stout at the defensive end lately, holding each of its previous five foes below 100 pts (94.6). But they've played some weak teams during that stretch, such as Brooklyn and the Lakers. For the season, the T'wolves are allowing 47.8% shooting at home, including 37.8% from three-point range. Cleveland is one of the better three-point shooting teams in the league right now and I expect them to score plenty tonight. How much they give up is another matter, but the number won't be as many as they score. Having dropped five of eight, the Cavs have fallen five games back of Boston for the top spot in the East, so it's imperative they finish this road trip strong. 10* Cleveland |
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01-07-18 | Hawks v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (9:35 ET): Two bottom feeders meet late Sunday night, so I don't anticipate a huge handle on this game. That said, I do think it's worth a shot taking the Lakers (even as a favorite!), who are desperate right now to snap a nine-game losing skid that started before X-Mas. Even worse is the fact that six of those losses took place here at Staples Center. But absences have played a role and while the idiotic LaVar Ball remains an annoyance, I feel tonight is a case of "if not now, when?" for the team. Atlanta comes in as the only team w/ a worse record than the Lakers and will be playing its third consecutive road game here. Lay the short number. While six of the Lakers last seven losses have come by double digits, the Hawks have been a surprisingly "tough out" as they've covered 12 of the last 18 games (including one push). But they too were routed their last time out, 110-89 by Portland as they trailed by as many as 25 pts in the fourth quarter. The Hawks have actually been favored in five games this year, winning and covering four of them. But otherwise, they rarely win as their SU record as a dog is 6-27. They lose those games by an average of 6.2 points per game, but w/ the pointspread usually generous, they can at least reward those taking them ATS. But here, the number is short and you don't see that often w/ this team, at least on the road. They are just 3-17 SU on the road this season, the worst such record in the league. The Lakers defense has ranged from horrific to non-existent of late and that has to stop. There was a time earlier in the year when they actually ranked in the top ten in defensive efficiency (currently 15th). HC Luke Walton seems cognizant of that. "Early in the year, if we had off-shooting nights, like we've had a lot of, we were still right in ball games, because we were defending our tails off," he said. The Lakers need to win here to avoid matching the franchise's longest losing streak in history (set in the dreadful period when Magic Johnson was coaching the team in '94). Fortunately here, Atlanta happens to rank 27th in defensive efficiency. The Lakers beat the Hawks both times last season and can do it again tonight. 8* LA Lakers |
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01-07-18 | Iowa +8.5 v. Maryland | Top | 73-91 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
10* Iowa (8:00 ET): Maryland is a team that would find itself squarely on the bubble if this were March as most "Bracketology experts" have them right on the cutline as one of the final four teams in the field of 68. However, the Terps certainly did NOT look like a NCAA Tournament team earlier in the week when they were thrashed (by 30!) at top ranked Michigan State. Iowa isn't even thinking Tourney right now after it dropped B2B home games to Ohio State and Michigan. Just when it appeared as if the Hawkeyes had things turned around (five straight wins to end 2017), they drop a pair in Iowa City to start the new year. They have yet to win a single Big 10 game (0-4 SU!), so expect a desperate dog tonight in College Station. Take the points. Maryland is 2-2 vs. the Big 10 and 13-4 SU overall. The two losses did come to Purdue and Michigan State, not only the two best teams in the league, but two of the best teams in the country. However, the two wins are by a combined seven points, one of them (at Illinoi) by only one. That's significant b/c Illinois is the only other Big Ten team besides Iowa w/o a win in league play. Every Terrapins' Big 10 tilt, besides the last one, was close. Thursday in East Lansing, however, they were completely decimated in a 91-61 defeat. They had no answer for the Spartans' depth or shooting (57.7% overall), which included a season-high 16 three-point FGs made. Will tonight's game be a significant drop in class for Maryland? Certainly. But might the Terps also still be "licking their wounds?" Probably. Iowa has its issues defensively as they've given up at least 73 points in four consecutive games and 92 the last time out, vs. Ohio State. This is a young and not particularly deep team (though they do play 11), but still, falling behind by as many as 17 pts (in the first half) in your own gym is pretty unacceptable. It was the second straight game where the Hawkeyes got off to a bad start. They also allowed the Buckeyes to shoot 53.0% from the field. But this looks to be a generous spread as the Hawkeyes haven't really been a dog of this magnitude, save for once, this season. Maryland has been good at home so far, but they've yet to blow a Big 10 opponent out. 10* Iowa |
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01-07-18 | Panthers +6.5 v. Saints | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 121 h 20 m | Show |
8* Carolina (4:25 ET): This is lone matchup between division rivals on Wild Card Weekend, thus we're bound to hear about "how hard it is to beat the same team three times in a season" (Saints won both reg season matchups and thus the division, which is why they have homefield advantage here). That's not necessarily true as this situation has seen the team that won both regular season matchups go 11-5 SU since 1990 (but only 8-7-1 ATS). However, we have not seen a three-game season sweep take place in the NFL since 2009 when the Cowboys did it to the Eagles. To me what's even harder to do is cover against the same opponent SEVEN straight times, which is what the Saints are trying to do here. Take the points. When New Orleans rolled into Carolina all the way back in Week 3, they were 0-2 SU/ATS on the season and little was being expected from them. Boy, how things changed in a hurry. The Saints would go onto win, 34-13 as 5.5-pt underdogs, and never looked back as they won 11 of their next 13 games. Interestingly enough, that Wk 3 matchup was the ONLY time the Saints won as an underdog all season. They'd go onto beat the Panthers here in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, 31-21, this time as six-point favorites in Week 13. How impressive was it for the Saints to score 30+ in both matchups vs. Carolina? Well, the Panthers allowed only one other 30+ pt game ALL SEASON, to the Patriots back in Week 4. For the year, Carolina allows just 20.4 PPG (same as New Orleans!) and is 7th in yards allowed. While New Orleans has won five straight home playoff games, Carolina has never lost in the Wild Card round, going 3-0 SU/ATS all-time. A big difference between this rubber match and the two regular season games will be the presence of Cam Newton's favorite target, TE Greg Olsen (didn't play either reg season game). While I'm not saying Carolina will win outright here, a close loss certainly seems like the strongest possibility. The Panthers were 7-1 SU in one-score games during the regular season and with regression likely to take hold, I can see them losing one here. Getting back to something I mentioned earlier, the Panthers are 0-6 ATS the L6 H2H meetings vs. the Saints, but they have won three of those straight up. Four of those six games have been decided by 5 pts or less. The Panthers were 5-2 SU and ATS as dogs this year. 8* Carolina |
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01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars -8 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -103 | 118 h 45 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (1:05 ET): What a story. The Buffalo Bills have ended what was professional sports' longest postseason drought, which embarrassingly dated all the way back to 1999. In a bit of irony, the last time the Bills made the playoffs saw the Titans, Rams and Jaguars all in the field, same as this year! That '99 season (w/ Doug Flutie as the QB!) ended w/ the now infamous "Music City Miracle" in Tennessee. I'm not sure exactly how this one will end, but I'm confident that the time and place will be this Sunday and Jacksonville. Not to ruin a nice story, but the Bills are pretty easily the worst team in the playoff field, if not one of the weaker playoff teams in recent memory. They were outscored during the regular season by 57 pts, yet got in over more qualified teams - Baltimore and Los Angeles - due to a convoluted tiebreaker that only came about when the Ravens shockingly allowed Andy Dalton and Cincinnati to drive the ball down the field and beat them. I'm laying the pts in this Wild Card matchup. Jacksonville comes into the playoffs off B2B losses, but do not let that erase what was a very impressive regular season. I was certainly a little disappointed to see them lose 15-10 at Tennessee last week (played all starters) and the week before, they gave up a season-high 44 pts to Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers. But over the course of 16 games, only the Patriots and Eagles outscored their opponents by larger margin. The Jags' defense, particularly against the pass, underwent a radical transformation this season. They allow only 169.9 YPG through the air (easily #1), had 55 sacks (#2) and allowed the second fewest points per game (16.8) overall. Facing a Buffalo offense w/ Tyrod Taylor at QB and possibly no RB LeSean McCoy, I look for the Jags to turn in a dominant defensive performance in this one. Buffalo's offense averages only 18.9 PPG, easily the fewest among playoff entrants. On the road, that number dips even further, down to 17.6. Their strength is running the ball (126 YPG), but w/o McCoy, they are going to be in a lot of trouble. Taylor, left for dead by this organization midseason, averages only 169.5 YPG passing. This is a battle of the league's second worst passing offense against the top passing defense, which is obviously a complete mismatch. Jacksonville also comes in sporting a +10 turnover margin (was higher earlier in the season) and is #2 in the league in takeaways. Buffalo, admittedly, only gave the ball away 16x. Still though, with or w/o McCoy (particularly w/o him!), I see the Bills' offense struggling in this one. There's another mismatch too, this one w/ the Jags' offense going against the Bills' defense. The former led the league in rushing offense while the latter was 30th at stopping the run. For all the talk about Buffalo's "Cinderella Story," let's not forget that this is Jacksonville's 1st playoff appearance since '07 and tickets went very fast for this home game. 10* Jacksonville |
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01-06-18 | Celtics -5 v. Nets | Top | 87-85 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
8* Boston (6:05 ET): The Celtics withstood a tough challenge from the T'wolves Friday night, holding them to 84 points in a seven-point win and cover. Playing on the road and w/o rest here may not be an ideal combo, but consider that the opponent is lowly Brooklyn. While the Nets too beat Minnesota in their last game (Wednesday), which was their second straight win and fourth consecutive cover, the Celtics are not a good matchup for them. I say that knowing full well that the Nets covered in Beantown back on December 30th, as 9.5-pt dogs, in a 108-105 loss. But that was an atypical game for the Celtics as they allowed 59 pts in the 1st half and then also went scoreless from the field over the final 4:27. Lay a shorter number here. That last meeting also marked the seventh straight time Boston beat Brooklyn. They did so despite some of the factors listed above, plus they were only 16 of 25 from the free throw line. It was - easily - the Celtics' worst defensive showing in the last five games and also only one of four times in the L11 games that they surrendered more than 100 pts. They come into tonight ranked #1 in defensive efficiency and PPG allowed (97.9) after holding B2B opponents below 90 pts. Both of those opponents - Cleveland and Minnesota - came in ranked in the top five in OFFENSIVE efficiency, mind you! Brooklyn is tied for only 18th in that department as they may average 106.9 PPG for the season, but do so thanks to a high number of possessions per game. If and when Boston limits the number of possessions and turns this into a halfcourt game, it will be a frustrating affair for the Nets. That's the big edge the Celtics have here. Brooklyn's B2B wins have been by a total of three points. Both were at home, against Orlando and Minnesota. Before that, they'd lost 8 of 10. They have won three in a row at home, but have not won three in a row overall (what they're gunning for here) at any point this season. In fact, it's just the third time they've won consecutive times. The last time (early December) saw them lose their next game by double digits, here at home. Furthermore, only one time all of last season (towards the end of the year) did the Nets win three straight times. Boston has won five straight and is holding opponents to 93.2 PPG on 37.5% shooting. One final point to make here centers around three-point shooting. Boston beat Minnesota last night despite shooting a season-worst 6 for 36 from behind the arc. They'll obviously improve upon that number here. Meanwhile, Brooklyn needed to hold Minnesota to 1 of 11 from three-point range to prevail by one point on Wednesday. Their three-point defense is bound to regress. 8* Boston |
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01-06-18 | North Carolina +5 v. Virginia | Top | 49-61 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
8* North Carolina (1:00 ET): In all due respect to the Big XII matchup between WVU and Oklahoma later in the day, the standout game on Saturday's slate takes place in the ACC. Both Virginia and North Carolina are probably better than their current rankings, #8 and #12 respectively, and today we'll find out who is better overall (albeit not necessarily permanently). This is a rivalry dominated by the home team recently w/ four straight wins and seven of the last nine. But North Carolina is likely the more motivated side here after losing at Florida State Wednesday (by a single point!) and thus, they'll be the proverbial "tough out" plus the points. I'm taking the underdog here. Now, I must concede that Virginia is a very good basketball team. How good? Well, at the defensive end, they are allowing just 52.7 points per game. That's the fewest in the country right now and perhaps more impressive is the fact the Hoos have held every opponent thus far to either its lowest or second lowest point total of the season! They allow 6.2 PPG fewer than the #2 team defensively (Miami). They also don't turn the ball over much, doing so just 9x per game, fewest in the country. But Saturday afternoon will certainly be their toughest test to date as UNC comes in averaging an impressive 84.9 points per game. Off their previous two losses, the Tar Heels have won by double digits the next time out, each time scoring 86 pts. It's rare that UNC loses B2B games. It didn't happen at all last season en route to them cutting down the nets in April. This team may not be as good as that one, but remember they don't even need to necessarily win straight up here. Prior to routing Va Tech in Blacksburg earlier in the week (1st win there in four years), Virginia was lucky to win its ACC opener (here in Charlottesville) as they escaped w/ a one-point win over Boston College. Getting back to North Carolina, they are 35-17-2 ATS their L54 games following a SU loss. That's good enough for me as you have to figure they've been favored in almost all of those contests. There's some real nice value here taking them plus the points. 8* North Carolina |
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01-05-18 | Wizards v. Grizzlies +5 | Top | 102-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
8* Memphis (9:35 ET): This is a rare TV showcase (ESPN) for the Grizzlies, so I expect them to be up for it. They host a Washington team who is well-known to either play up - or down - to its level of opponent. Case in point, the Wizards have won three in a row, one of those games against Houston. (All three were also at home.) But they've also suffered recent losses - by double digits - to Atlanta and Brooklyn. Those were two of their last three road games. The Wiz have a losing road record this year (9-10 SU) while being outscored as well. I like that this number has been bet up in the A.M. and I'll take advantage by grabbing the points. For Memphis, this is their 1st home game since before Christmas! They just wrapped up a five-game West Coast trip w/ a 113-105 loss at the Clippers. They at least managed to beat both the Lakers and Kings on the trip and only lost to Phoenix by two. When they met Washington earlier in the season (in D.C.), they lost by just six and that was as 7.5-pt favorites. Not sure why the line would be so high for the rematch. Memphs is also averaging an impressive 111.3 points over its L6 games. Washington will have John Wall in the lineup tonight (and tomorrow). Usually, HC Scott Brooks has been resting Wall in the front end of a back to back. But with the team being so inconsistent, he's "changing it up" a bit. I reckon that Wall's presence is what has influenced this line so much. The Wizards are only 11-10 SU against teams w/ losing records and 8-13 ATS in those same games. Those losses I mentioned earlier - to Brooklyn and Atlanta - were by a combined 49 points! 8* Memphis |
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01-05-18 | Bulls v. Mavs -4.5 | Top | 127-124 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): Winners of five in a row ATS (4-1 straight up), the Mavs face an ideal opponent tonight in the Bulls. Dallas has seen its offensive efficiency rise pretty dramatically over the last month or so while Chicago still languishes (ranked 29th) in that department. I still feel that the Bulls are being overvalued due to that somewhat shocking seven-game win streak in December. They're 12-3 ATS the L15 games, but let's not forget just how poorly they played over the first two months of the season. Sure enough, they've begun to regress again w/ three consecutive losses, the latest coming at home to Toronto (Wednesday) by a score of 124-115. They're just 4-15 SU on the road, getting outscored by almost 10 PPG and have gone just 1-13 SU, 2-9-3 ATS against the Western Conference. Lay the points here. Dallas also had a very rough start to the season, but despite their 13-26 SU overall record, they're still only being outscored by 2.4 points per game. That's a far better YTD point differential than Chicago, who is -5.6 points per game. In fact, only two teams in the league can lay claim to having a worse point differential than the Bulls, those being Phoenix and Sacramento. Per 100 possessions, the Bulls are being outscored by 6.5 points, tied for second worst in the league. Dallas isn't favored too often (this will be just the 10th time this season), but it's a good spot as they have outscored their opponents at home, largely due to the fact they hold opponents to 43.9% shooting here. Also, they are a perfect 3-0 ATS after scoring 115+ pts the last game. Alas, 122 pts was not enough for the Mavs on Wednesday as they went up against Golden State, but only lost by three. They covered as 8.5-pt dogs. Prior to the loss, they'd won four in a row. Certainly, losing to the Warriors is no crime, especially if its by only three points. Steph Curry made a three-pointer in the closing seconds to decide the game. As for the Bulls, while their offense still languishes, the defense has now surrendered 114 or more points in three straight games. Again, those have all been losses. I liked how Dallas had seven players score in double figures (2nd time in 3 games!) against the Dubs and that they shot 19 of 43 from three-point range. 10* Dallas |
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01-05-18 | Elon v. Northeastern -5.5 | Top | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
10* Northeastern (7:00 ET): Off an outright loss as a home favorite earlier in the week, I expect the Huskies to be highly motivated for this Friday night home date. On Tuesday, they lost to Hofstra, 71-70 as 5.5-pt chalk. That snapped a five-game home winning streak and was an extremely disappointing result given that N'eastern led early on by double digits. In the second half, no more than three points separated the two teams over the final 10 minutes. In a contest determined by the slightest margin possible, the keys were Hofstra shooting 49 to 45.5 percent from the floor, outscoring N'eastern 36-24 in the paint and four more free throws made. Tonight they face an Elon team in the exact opposite situation, that being off a SU win as a (slight) dog at home. I'll lay the points. Elon got me their last time out, beating Towson 75-72 as a 1.5-pt dog. Again, that game mirrored Northeastern's last game, only w/ the opposite result for the team in question. The Phoenix trailed virtually the entire first half and was still down six w/ just over seven minutes to go in the game. Like the N'eastern-Hofstra game, Elon and Towson were never separated by more than five pts after that. The Phoenix did not take the lead for good until the final minutes. They've now won three in a row and started 2-0 in CAA play, but both conference games were at home. Speaking of close games, these teams played a pair last season, each winning by 2 pts or less on the other's home floor. They were very different games. Elon won at N'eastern 51-49 and then the rematch went the Huskies way, 105-104, after two overtimes. Speaking of overtimes, Elon has been a very lucky team so far this season, winning three different OT games including one double OT game and one triple OT game! Four of their five losses have been by nine points or greater, three of those coming by 16 pts or more. All five losses were also on the road. As for Northeastern, I simply can't see them dropping B2B home games. The Huskies are allowing just 63 PPG at home this year while limited teams to 26% shooting from behind the arc. I'm banking on their defense showing up in a major way here and avenging what happened earlier in the week. Elon is just 1-5 ATS away from home this year. 10* Northeastern |
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01-04-18 | Houston v. Wichita State -8.5 | Top | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
10* Wichita State (7:00 ET): This season has seen Wichita State make the "move up" from the Missouri Valley, a conference which they dominated seemingly for forever, to the American. The expectation is that it will the Shockers competing w/ Cincinnati for supremacy here. Sure enough, those are the only two AAC teams ranked, currently. Wichita State won its first league game on Saturday, 72-62 over UConn, but failed to cover (barely) as 10.5-pt favorites. It was the fourth consecutive game where they did not cover. For tonight, the number is more manageable (1st time not favored by DD since SU loss to Oklahoma), but the task more difficult as they host 12-2 Houston. The Cougars are off to a 2-0 SU start in AAC play. Houston's two losses this year are by a combined seven points, but to Drexel and LSU, games in which they were favored. They've only been an underdog once and that game happens to be their best performance of the season, a stunning 91-65 beatdown of Arkansas. But that was at home. The Cougars were a busy team prior to the New Year, playing twice in three days and beating USF and Temple. However, those two wins did not come w/o some attrition as starting forward Breaon Brady (scored 21 pts vs. Temple) sustained an ankle injury. He may not play tonight. Going into Charles Koch Arena, one definitely wants to be at full strength. That's because Wichita State is 65-1 straight up here the last five seasons! Wichita State will certainly be Houston's toughest opponent to date. While the Shockers didn't play particularly well last month against Oklahoma, the Sooners are also a tougher opponent against Houston. WSU's only other loss this year was to Notre Dame (who was ranked #13 at the time) in Maui and they blew a double-digit halftime lead in that one. The key to the Shockers' success has been rebound margin as they rank #4 in the country in that department at +11.6 per game. This being their 1st AAC home game, I expect a very motivated effort from WSU. Lay the points. 10* Wichita State |
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01-04-18 | Lightning v. Canadiens +1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
6* Puck Line Montreal (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I'm taking the Canadiens +1.5. Tampa Bay has clearly emerged as the "team to beat" in the NHL's Eastern Conference as their 60 points and +53 goal differential are both league bests (the latter easily so). But, that being said, I feel this could be a somewhat tricky road game against a division foe. Certainly, the Habs come in "wounded" as losers of five in a row. They've scored just four goals total during the losing streak, but to be fair, they are also coming off a hellacious road trip, one of that took them to Western Canada for three games and then to the Southeast U.S. for three more. Thus, I was NOT surprised to see them struggle in their return home Tuesday night, which ended up being a 4-1 loss to San Jose. All five losses have been by 2+ goals while the Lightning are off B2B shutouts (both on the road). So, I get that this looks like a pretty severe mismatch. However, it is Tampa Bay's third road game in five nights and considering the two teams they just beat (Columbus, Toronto), it would only be natural to have somewhat of a "letdown" here. In fact, the Lightning are just 3-6 SU this season when coming off a division game. Their strong start to the season hasn't been w/o some good fortune as they've gone 11-5 SU in one-goal games. That's 16 out of 39 games decided by a one-goal margin. Either way, we'll take that result tonight. Montreal would be well-served to try and get on the man advantage in this game as TB's one weakness is the penalty kill where they rank just 23rd. I also think it would be a mistake to start doubting Carey Price as he still owns a .940 save percentage against division foes this season (10 starts). He can keep the Habs in this one. It's not like the offense does a poor job of getting the puck on net, at least here at home where they average 33.6 shots per game. I look for the Habs to do no worse than a one-goal loss here, so take the +1.5. 6* Puck Line Montreal (+1.5) |
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01-04-18 | Texas-San Antonio v. Louisiana Tech -7.5 | Top | 78-76 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
8* Under UTSA/La Tech (7:30 ET): Here's a somewhat "off the radar" matchup as we travel to Conference USA where both UTSA and Louisiana Tech are looking to bounce back from losses. The latter was expected to challenge Middle Tennessee for conference supremacy this season, but has opened C-USA w/ B2B losses, albeit both taking place on the road. But it can't all be blamed on the schedule here as the Bulldogs have had lineup issues and turn the ball over too much. Jalen Harris, the team's second leading scorer, asked for and was granted a release from the program after only 11 games. Leading scorer Dequan Bracey has battled back issues, which have limited him over the L2 games, and he's also the primary culprit for all the turnovers. UTSA won its C-USA opener (over Rice), but then lost to North Texas by a single point on Saturday. Unlike La Tech, the Roadrunners got to play both of their first two league games at home. Not much is expected from UTSA this season as they were picked to finish in the middle of C-USA and they're simply not very good away from home. Their lone "true" road win this year came by a single point at Texas State in the second game of the season. The loss to North Texas was the Roadrunners' fourth game this season decided by four points or less and they've lost three of those. They blew a seven-point halftime lead to North Texas and missed two layups in the closing seconds. This is not a team noted for its defense as they've allowed 100 pts TWICE in regulaton this season. Like UTSA, La Tech can score. They average 79.7 PPG and 90.0 PPG at home. UTSA averages 85.5 PPG (still not in the top 20), but also allows 77 PPG. These teams have a history of going Over against one another w/ seven of the previous eight meetings going that way, including all four the last two seasons. But notable here is the fact the O/U line some 20 pts higher than it was for either meeting last year. Both 2017 matchups BARELY went Over as in by 2 pts and 1 pt. Five of La Tech's last six games have stayed Under and while, again, both were on the road, they are averaging just 66.5 in conference games. UTSA is also coming off its lowest scoring effort to date. 8* Under UTSA/La Tech |
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01-03-18 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Jazz | Top | 108-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (9:05 ET): I expect both of these teams to be in the battle for the last couple (few?) playoff spots in the Western Conference, all season long. The five teams I consider "locks" in the West to make the playoffs are: Golden State, Houston, San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Minnesota. That leaves three spots, likely to be filled by some combo of the Pelicans, Jazz, Blazers, Clippers and Nuggets (so two teams will be left out). Given the way Utah played in December, the playoffs might seem like a remote possibility. Though they did end 2017 w/ an upset of the Cavs (here at home), the Jazz have gone just 3-10 SU since December 5th to fall to 16-21 SU overall. New Orleans, despite B2B losses, sits ahead of them (currently in that coveted 8th place position). Both teams are well-rested coming into tonight as they've each been off for three days. The Pelicans failed to take advantage of what looked like, on paper, to be a favorable homestand to close out 2017 (favored in all three games). They lost the last two, to Dallas and New York, "thanks" to a combo of poor defense and collapsing down the stretch. It was the defense that cost them against the Mavs, a poor offensive team that the Pelicans let make 22 three-pointers and score a season-high 122 pts. Then against the Knicks, NO blew an eight-point lead w/ under three minutes to go. So they should be highly motivated, not to mention this is a revenge spot as they lost here in Salt Lake City back on 12.1 (114-108). Interestingly though, they were 3.5-pt road favorites that night. Utah doesn't have Rudy Gobert, which is problematic to begin with, but especially when facing a team that has Anthony Davis and Boogie Cousins on its roster. I'm not sure how the Jazz plan on stopping them. Sure, they can slow the pace down, but that will be tough against a Pelicans team that plays at the sixth fastest pace in the league. I concede the fact Utah allows only 95.5 PPG at home, but since their problems started back on 12.5, they've held only two opponents below 100 pts. The December schedule was pretty brutal for the Jazz, so I can't say I was shocked to see them struggle. But while the pointspread is somewhat negligible here, it's only the 2nd time they've been favored in the L10 games. Only twice in the L18 games have they been favored by more than two points! 8* New Orleans |
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01-03-18 | Oklahoma State +10 v. Oklahoma | Top | 89-109 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma State (9:00 ET): Bedlam is renewed on the basketball court tonight w/ Oklahoma hosting rival Oklahoma State in the second Big 12 game for each side. The faithful in Norman may still be "licking their wounds" after the football team's disappointing loss in the Rose Bowl Monday, but they've got a pretty good basketball team too. The Sooners come in at 11-1 SU and ranked #7 in the country. In the (very deep) Big XII, they are the second highest rated team right now according to the pollsters (ahead of Kansas!). But it wasn't easy New Year's Eve, handing TCU its first loss of the season, and OK State will come in highly motivated off a loss at home to WVU. Take the points w/ the Pokes in this one. The Big 12 looks to be loaded this year w/ five teams currently ranked in the top 18 and three in the top 10. Personally, I have OU rated as the fourth best team in the league (ahead of TCU among those ranked). I don't think they're the 7th best team in the country, by any means. Oklahoma State is in the next tier (along w/ Texas, Baylor and Kansas State) in what is potentially shaping up to be a seven-bid league in the NCAA Tournament. Certainly, they don't want to (can't afford to?) start 0-2 in conf play. They led WVU by seven at halftime in Stillwater on Friday, but shockingly the nation's #2 free throw shooting team (80.5%!) faltered down the stretch (11 for 19 in 2H). While the Cowboys were picked to finish last in the preseason poll, clearly, they're better than that as their only three losses so far have come to Top 10 teams (WVU, A&M, Wichita State). Winners of nine in a row, the Sooners are clearly going to be motivated here by the double revenge they have from last year (lost to OK State both times). But three of the past four meetings between these two (including both LY) have been decided by four points or less. In other words, expect a close game tonight. OU just outlasted TCU on New Year's Eve, coming from behind to win 90-89. At one point, the Sooners trailed by as many as 13 in the second half. Having had two more days to prepare here is a big edge for the underdog. Oklahoma certainly can score, but they give up plenty of points too (79.9 PPG). Maybe that's why they're just 3-6 ATS laying points this season. 8* Oklahoma State |
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01-02-18 | Hornets -3.5 v. Kings | Top | 131-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (10:05 ET): Tonight marks a sort of "crossroads" for me as it pertains to the Hornets. In the interest of full disclosure, I tabbed this team as one of my most improved for 2017-18, presupposing they'd experience a lot better luck - whether you're talking injuries or record in close games. Instead, they've gotten neither. They currently sit 10 games below .500, have been w/o Nic Batun (since returned) and Cody Zeller (out indefinitely) for significant time, and seen their record in games decided by three points or less dip to an almost unfathomable 0-13 (straight up) since the start of last season! Even their head coach Steve Clifford has not been immune as he has been M.I.A. for three weeks due to an undisclosed health issue. But I'm willing to take a stab (one last one?) tonight as they visit the team I rate as the worst in the entire league, that being Sacramento. Sure, there is a handful of teams w/ worse records than the Kings. But in my estimation, no team has played worse. They have - by a fairly wide margin - the worst per game point differential in the league at -8.7. Mirroring that, they are giving up 10.3 more points per 100 possessions than they are scoring. The next worst team is only -6.4 in that department. That discrepancy is largely owed to a league worst defense that is giving up 1.1 points per possession. Offensively, the Kings are also dead last in efficiency and they average only 97.0 points per game. They won't have either their starting (rookie De'Aaron Fox) or even backup (Frank Mason) point guard for tonight's game as both are out w/ injuries. Yikes! The last two games have seen Sacramento get outscored by 28 pts. That may not mean surprise you, but consider the opponents were Memphis and Phoenix. So there is hope for a team like Charlotte here. Against the Grizzlies, the Kings trailed by as many as 30 in the second half and that that was here at home! Whereas the Kings are simply a bad team, the Hornets are a decent one, hurt by poor luck. I know that they're only 3-13 SU on the road this season, so it seems odd to lay points, but the line actually isn't high enough. Expect Kemba Walker to shoot better than he has recently, in this game. 10* Charlotte |
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01-02-18 | Hawks v. Suns -1 | Top | 103-104 | Push | 0 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
8* Phoenix (9:05 ET): Two bottom-feeders face off Tuesday in the desert w/ the Suns hosting the Hawks. Both teams entered 2017-18 "knowing their lot" and that it would be a long season. Neither has "disappointed" in that regard. Phoenix is 14-24 SU and really could be a lot lower in the Western Conference standings as three of the four teams w/ worse records have better YTD point differentials. The Hawks are at the bottom of the Eastern Conference (10-26 SU), yet off a rare SU win. That latter component makes them strong fade material in my book as bad teams rarely post B2B wins, especially on the road. The Suns are 28-12 ATS the L40 H2H meetings, including a perfect 4-0 ATS the L2 seasons. Lay the short number. For Atlanta, this game marks the start of a five-game trip out West. They beat Portland at home Saturday, 104-89 as 2-pt home dogs. In addition to much better than usual defense, the Hawks used a second-half scoring "explosion" to down the Blazers. They scored 32 points in the 4Q alone and the difference in the last 12 minutes was almost the difference in the game. They also benefited from shooting 14 of 30 from three-point range while Portland was only 7 of 25. The Hawks are middle of the road offensively, but it's the other end where they often struggle. They'll come into this game ranked 27th in defensive efficiency. (Phoenix is one of three teams rated lower). The 89 pts allowed to Portland were the fewest by any Hawks opponent since Sacramento scored only 80 back on November 15th. The Hawks promptly lost the next game, by 11, to Boston. On the road, things have not gone well for Atlanta either. They're just 3-15 straight up and being outscored by six points per game. Their last road win came back on December 2nd at Brooklyn. I'm actually a little shocked to see the Hawks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall. But, as you might have guessed, that's a byproduct of a lot of large spreads. With that not being the case here, it's good to think "the other way," and here w/ Phoenix, they'll be looking to bounce back from a double digit loss here at home on New Year's Eve to Philadelphia. Prior to that, they'd won 5 of 7. Against teams w/ losing records, the Suns do have a winning SU record, something the Hawks cannot say about themselves. The Suns' home record would be better if not for the games leading scorer Devin Booker missed. 8* Phoenix |
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01-02-18 | Towson -2 v. Elon | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
8* Towson (7:00 ET): The Colonial is nowhere close to what it was in its "heyday" (w/ VCU and George Mason's Final Four runs bring the conference to nat'l prominence) and the team that has dominated the last couple seasons (UNC Wilmington) is expected to take a step back in 2018. Thus, we have ourselves yet another a wide-open race. Both teams here figure to be "players" in the CAA race, along w/ favorite (College of) Charleston. Now, that being said Towson does not come into this game playing well. They've lost three in a row, all "true" road games, including their CAA opener - at the aforementioned Charleston. Here, they play a fourth straight "true" roadie, at Elon, who won (here at home) over Drexel Saturday. Prior to the current three-game skid, Towson had started the year 10-1 SU. I still rank them as the 2nd best team in the CAA (after Charleston) despite the losses. Something to note is that the Tigers were actually favored at Pitt last week. Even though they lost, that's a lot of respect from the marketplace. The Tigers are quite battled-tested by this point as they've played only four home games (won them all). Despite that, and the three-game skid, they're still outscoring foes by an impressive 9.4 points per game. Usually, their defense is very stout (allowing 39.0 FG% for the year), but on Saturday, they let Charleston shoot above 51%. I don't see that happening again, especially not in B2B games. Elon is 5-0 SU at home after a 90-75 win over Drexel as 6.5-pt favorites. Prior to that, they went to Terre Haute and upset Indiana State as six-point dogs. So the Phoenix are playing well right now? But can they summon up a third straight quality performance? I'm not convinced. They're only +1.8 PPG despite the 9-5 SU record and Saturday's offensive showing, where they scored 90 pts on 49.1% shooting, is atypical compared to what we usually see from them. We're only two weeks removed from the Phoenix losing by 16 at Canisius and three weeks from them losing by 31 at UNC Greensboro. They scored just 95 pts - total - in those two games and shot terribly. They're also just 1-4 ATS as underdogs this season. 8* Towson |
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01-01-18 | Georgia v. Oklahoma +3 | Top | 54-48 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 41 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma (5:00 ET): It's not a "classic" (Big 10 vs. Pac 12) Rose Bowl matchup, but the first of two CFP semifinals could be a classic nonetheless as it's a battle of offense vs. defense here w/ Oklahoma taking on Georgia. OU was #4 in the country during the regular season in points per game while UGA is #3 in points allowed. In fact, the top three teams in the country in points allowed (Bama-Clemson-UGA) all made the CFP, leaving the Sooners as the outlier in the department. But Heisman winner Baker Mayfield (sick or not) can more than make up for that discrepancy as Oklahoma has a huge edge at the most important position (QB) in this game. Remember, Georgia's starting QB (Jacob Fromm) is a true freshman. Only one true frosh in the history of College Football (ironically, Oklahoma's Jamelle Holieway, in 1985) has led his team to a National Championship. Due to concerns over Mayfield's health (he's playing obviously!), this line has been bet up and there's now plenty of value on the Sooners. Led by Mayfield, who meshes so well w/ coordinator turned HC Lincoln Riley, the OU offense averaged 44.9 PPG in the regular season and a FBS-high 583.3 yards per game. The offense is more than just Mayfield, however, as it is loaded at all the skill positions not to mention the offensive line is also one of the best in the country. The running back and receiver groups are both incredibly deep and TE Mark Andrews won the Mackey Award for being the best at his position. There is no doubt in my mind that OU is going to score plenty in this game. The fewest pts they scored in any game this year was 31 and they won both times they were an underdog, beating Ohio State and Oklahoma State on the road. But what about the Sooners' defense? Clearly, it will be labeled the "worst" of the four defenses in the CFP and that's fair. But it's a group that improved down the stretch, most notably holding TCU to 20 and 17 points in two matchups. Georgia's defense, save for the loss to Auburn, is pretty sick. But it should be noted that they have not faced a passing attack anywhere close to what Oklahoma brings to the table. Generally speaking, QB play is pretty subpar in the SEC these days. I worry about Fromm and the UGA offense, even though they come in averaging almost 35 PPG. I expect the Sooners' defense to "stack the box" and dare Fromm to beat them through the air. The Georgia passing attack only averages 170 YPG and if they fall behind here, that could mean big-time trouble. It's worth mentioning that OU did open as a 1-pt favorite here, so again, I think we've gotten to a point where there's value in taking them. Oklahoma has won and covered the last three times it has taken on a SEC opponent, including bowl wins over Alabama (2013) and Auburn (last year). They averaged 40 PPG in those two bowl wins. 8* Oklahoma |
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01-01-18 | West Virginia -2 v. Kansas State | Top | 77-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
10* West Virginia (5:00 ET): This is a potentially great matchup for New Year's Day w/ two of the heavyweights from the Big 12 facing off. Both won their respective conference openers, WVU over Oklahoma State and Kansas State over Iowa State. Even more impressive is that both wins came on the road. Can Bob Huggins' Mountaineers now make it B2B road wins? Well, considering they've won their last 12 games, I'd answer in the affirmative. WVU has ascended to 7th in the latest national rankings and while they may not be quite that good, I definitely have them ahead of Kansas State, whose 11-2 SU record hasn't exactly come at the expense of many good times. It's tough winning at the "Octagon of Doom," but WVY can do it. In fact, they almost did it last year, losing by only four (were -3.5). Note that after that loss, they'd go on to drub K-State in Morgantown (by 19) and then beat them again in the Big 10 Tourney. Overall, they've beaten the Wildcats in seven of the previous eight head to head meetings. As per usual, "Press Virginia" is creating a lot of turnovers; 21 per game, in fact, for the season. This is a very balanced (and deep) team that ranks in the top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency (per KenPom). Only three other teams in the country - Michigan St, Purdue and Kansas can also lay claim to that. Six different Mountaineers scored in double figures Saturday in Stillwater as they outscored OK State 46-33 in the 2nd half. Six Big XII teams currently find themselves ranked in the Top 25, but Kansas State is NOT one of them, which is somewhat telling. I don't always agree w/ the pollsters and this is one of those cases where I'm "with them" as I don't have Bruce Weber's team ranked in my top 40 despite their 11-2 SU record! Remember that they lost outright to Tulsa last month. They do hold road wins over Vandy and Iowa State, but that's about it. The win Saturday over Iowa State was KSU's first in Ames since 2011. I seriously doubt we'll see a repeat performance from junior Dean Wade, who went for a career-high 34 pts in that game. As a team, the Wildcats shot better than 55% from the floor Saturday, including 13 of 26 from three-point range (Iowa St was just 4 of 15 from 3-pt range). That also won't be duplicated. 10* West Virginia |
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01-01-18 | Sabres +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
6* Puck Line Buffalo (1:00 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I'm taking the Sabres +1.5. For the Sabres, today's game might as well be the Stanley Cup Finals. By every objective measure, they are the worst team in the Eastern Conference, so a national platorm should definitely have them "hyped up" and ready to go come New Year's Day. Will that be enough, though? Not sure, but that's where the Puck Line comes in as I definitely don't see the Rangers winning this game by more than one goal. It should be noted that Buffalo is off a win here (4-3 at New Jersey) and a one-goal loss (to the Islanders) prior to that. Meanwhile, each of the Rangers last four games have been decided by one goal margins. Take the +1.5 here. Not sure how much it would change things, but the Sabres are tied for the most losses in OT or a shootout in the league (8). The win over the Devils Friday did come in overtime. I was impressed, however, with them rallying back from a 3-1 deficit on the road. That improves them to 2-3-2 the L7 games, so they come into the New Year at least being competitive. Seven of their last 10 goals have been decided by one goals, a margin that would work for us either way here. Overall, 17 of their 38 games this season have been decided by one goal. They've also done a pretty good job recently at getting the puck on the net. Four times in the last six games, they've finished w/ 36 or more shots. Remember that whatever home ice edge the Rangers would have otherwise enjoyed here is mitigated by playing outdoors at Citi Field. While they're 15-6-3 at MSG this season, they're just 5-7-2 on the road. I'm interested to see how this team performs once it starts playing more away from home. One thing we can expect is they will give up plenty of shots. So far this season, they are allowing an average of 38.5 shots per game on the road. That has to be the highest number in the entire league. They've also been allowing a high number of shots, period, of late and that's contributed to them losing three of four overall. Are the Rangers the better team here? Yes. But don't discount the fact that Buffalo has a relatively hot goaltender going today in Robin Lehner, who has a .935 save percentage his L4 starts. Just like the Sabres, 17 of the Rangers' 38 games this season have been decided by exactly one goal. 6* Puck Line Buffalo (+1.5) |
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01-01-18 | Central Florida +11 v. Auburn | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 40 h 11 m | Show |
Update: Auburn's top corner, Carlton Davis, is now out (illness) and that's huge for Central Florida and their offense! 10* Central Florida (12:30 ET): We have seen the "Group of 5" team step up in the "New Year's Six" Bowl Game before, even winning outright the first two years of the current format w/ Boise State upsetting Arizona in the 2015 Fiesta Bowl and Houston doing the same to Florida State in the 2016 Peach Bowl. Last year, your ATS results may vary as Wisconsin beat Western Michigan 24-16, a game that fell right on/near the number. But the MAC always stinks in bowl games and this year we're back to an AAC team, UCF, who was the ONLY team in the country to finish the regular season unbeaten. Auburn, after losing the SEC Championship Game to Georgia, has to be a little disappointed w/ this bowl assignment and I'm taking the points. UCF comes in w/ the top ranked offense in the country, averaging an astounding 49.4 points per game. That's a big reason why HC Scott Frost was hired away by Nebraska. Frost will coach this game though and the "Group of 5" teams have become used to this spot as Houston's Tom Hermann and Western Michigan's PJ Fleck were both set to depart when they coached their bowl games the L3 years. Now, UCF's conference brethren Memphis (who was #2 in FBS in scoring) was just held in check in its bowl game by Iowa State. UCF will have to deal w/ an even more stout defense (Auburn #7 in def efficiency), but as alluded to above, it will also probably be a less motivated one than what Memphis faced vs. Iowa State. It needs to be stated the the Golden Knights scored 45+ pts eight times during the regular season, including each of the last four games. Let's point out that Auburn did lose three times this year. Now those losses were to Clemson, Georgia (both in CFP!) and LSU (who they led by 20). But still, it's not like they are infallible. All their big wins this year, most notably the Alabama one and the first Georgia game, came at Jordan-Hare. This is always a tough matchup for the Power 5 school because it's hard to get motivated to play a smaller school, especially when you're in a position like Auburn is here, that being you hoped to be in the playoff (before losing the SEC Champ Game). Note the Tigers were only 3-4-2 ATS as favorites this year, including 2-3-2 laying double digits. Now those seven games all found them favored by 15 or more pts, but still, it was also against lesser competition. RB Kamryn Pettway will not play here for the Tigers and despite missing the L5 games, he still led the SEC in rush yards per game. Auburn has lost three of its last four bowl games. 10* UCF |
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12-31-17 | Wolves -2 v. Pacers | Top | 107-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (5:05 ET): There is some question as to who will exactly be suiting up here (on both sides!), but I believe that in the end, the T'wolves will have the stronger lineup, especially if Victor Oladipo can't go for the Pacers. Oladipo is currently listed as "doubtful" for Sunday's game due to a knee injury that has kept him out the last two games. Honestly, I'd be shocked if he played here as HC Nate McMilan has already gone on the record in saying Oladipo will likely be out. The results haven't been good w/o Oladipo, the team's leading scorer, as the Pacers have lost three in a row. Not only did they lose by double digits twice, but they lost to Dallas at home. Minnesota could be w/o Andrew Wiggins, but they're better built to sustain in his absence and they've been a hotter team of late. On Thursday, the T'wolves had a five-game win streak snapped in Milwaukee (lost by six). Now, that was the first game played w/o PG Jeff Teague, but that still didn't stop Minny from racing out to a 20-pt lead in the third quarter. It was their third game in four nights, so that prob helps explain why they blew the lead, contributing to a night of incredible comebacks all around the league. Despite not having Teague, the T'wolves probably still should have won that game (were outscored 27-12 in 4Q). They're better rested now (2 days off!) and it needs to be stated how this is legitimately a very good team. Minnesota has not lost B2B games since before Thanksgiving! This is the second matchup of the year between these two teams. Indiana won the 1st, 130-107, as they shot a season-best 66.7% from the floor. Needless to say, that kind of percentage isn't going to be repeated here. Furthermore, it's the Pacers that now need to be concerned about defense as they just allowed a Chicago team (that was dead last in the league in offensive efficiency) to go 18 of 39 from three-point range on Friday. It was the Pacers' fourth consecutive ATS defeat, all of them coming to subpar teams. This will be Indiana's fourth game in six nights as well. No Oladipo means trouble for the Pacers. 8* Minnesota |
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12-31-17 | Jaguars +6 v. Titans | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 116 h 59 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (4:25 ET): Tennessee has everything (playoff berth!) to play for here while Jacksonville has nothing to play for here. The Jags have already clinched the AFC South and will host a playoff game on Wild Card Weekend as the AFC's #3 seed. That said, "stranger things" have happened in Week 17 and by all accounts, the Jags are playing their starters here. If this were a "regular week," Jacksonville would absolutely be favored here, even on the road. Their #1 scoring defense giving up 44 pts to the 49ers last week has to have left a "bad taste" in the players' mouths and I'm banking on that there's nothing they'd rather do, then knock out a division rival from playoff contention. The Titans have lost three in a row and have been outscored and outgained this season. Take the points. This is a revenge spot for the Jags, who lost at home to the Titans, 37-16 all the way back in Week 2. It's their worst loss of the season and was the most points allowed, until last week. However, that performance is in no way indicative of the kind of season the Jags have enjoyed. They are #3 in the league in point differential (#1 among AFC teams) and outgaining foes by an impressive 86.5 YPG (they are +0.8 yards per play). As mentioned earlier, the defense was #1 in scoring going into last week (now #2) and is still #3 in yards allowed. The offense will be w/o WR Marquise Lee for a second straight game, but also gets back Allan Hurns after a six-week absence. Yes, a +13 turnover margin has been huge for this team. But they are very good and worthy of being AFC South Champs. Tennessee, on the other hand, is very fortunate to even be in playoff contention. As mentioned earlier, they have been outscored and outgained over the course of the season. They've dropped three in a row, by only a total of 14 pts, but that was "due" as they'd previously gone 5-1 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less. This is the first time in his career that QB Marcus Mariota will even suit up for a Week 17 game. He has not been good down the stretch and the offense will also be w/o DeMarco Murray for the first time in two seasons here. On the defensive side of the ball, the Titans' top CB (Logan Ryan) may also be out. I'm counting on a Titans' gagjob here as Jacksonville is a much better team. 8* Jacksonville |
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12-31-17 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 59 m | Show |
10* Carolina (4:25 ET): Ok, so here's the setup for this one. If Atlanta wins, then they grab the NFC's final playoff spot. (They can still make it w/ a Seattle loss too). Carolina has already clinched a playoff spot, but in a field that is already pretty well set, the Panthers position is the most volatile. They can finish anywhere from #2 to #5 based on how the day goes. The best case scenario for them involves both Minnesota and New Orleans losing (note: both are favored) and them winning. That would result in Carolina leaping to the #2 seed, winning the NFC South and getting a 1st round bye! Minnesota plays at 1:00 ET and if they win, then that scenario is dead, but regardless, the Panthers will take the field at 4:25 ET knowing they have a chance to win the South (New Orleans also plays at 4:25 ET): As long as the Saints don't take a huge early lead (presuming the Panthers are scoreboard watching), we shouldn't worry about effort here. Take the points w/ the better team. Carolina won the season's 1st meeting, 20-17 as three-point favorites. I felt that anything above a field goal for this rematch would mean value on the Panthers and because of the situation the Falcons are facing, the oddsmakers have obliged. Atlanta did finish w/ a slight edge in total yds in that 1st meeting, but Carolina had more first downs and ran for 200 yards. The Panthers also held a 10-pt lead for most of the 4th quarter. They've been outstanding in the underdog role all season long, going not only 5-1 ATS, but also 5-1 straight up. They've won three straight - all by a TD or less - and while they were certainly lucky to win at Tampa Bay LW, this has been the BEST team in the league at winning close this year, going 7-1 straight up in one-score games. While Carolina ran for 200+ yards in that Week 9 matchup, Atlanta had no such success over land as their RB combo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman were held to 51 yds - total. Carolina's defense, which has been one of the best in the league this season, will be back at full strength this week as both DE Charles Johnson and LB Thomas Davis will return from suspensions. While both of these teams allow just 20.3 PPG, Carolina holds its foes to fewer yards per game. Atlanta is surprisingly only 4-3 SU/ATS at home this season while Carolina is 5-2 SU/ATS on the road. 10* Carolina |
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12-31-17 | Missouri State v. Valparaiso -1 | Top | 67-50 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
8* Valparaiso (4:00 ET): Missouri Valley play got underway this week and in the case of Valpo, it did not go well. The Crusaders lost at Indiana State, 73-64, as one-point road favorites. But let's look at that situation, shall we? The game came at the end of a ridiculous SIX-game road swing (all "true" road games, at that), one that had taken them out to the West Coast for a couple of games prior to the Holiday break. Now, they're back at home - for the 1st time in December! I think that counteracts the fact that their opponents here, Missouri State, have been off for nine days since winning their MVC opener, 64-59 over Loyola (at home). The Bears come into this game having won 9 of 10, but I'm not ready to buy into them. I've said this before, but the Missouri Valley is wide open this year due to the departure of Wichita State. Valpo replaced the Shockers, keeping this a 10-team league, but it is Missouri State that was labeled by many as the new favorite. Tip your cap to the Bears for holding Loyola, who was thought to have the best offense in the league coming into the season, to just 59 points. The game before that, the Bears held Wright State to only 28.1% shooting. For the season, the Bears are allowing just 38.2% shooting. Therefore, it shouldn't come as much of a shock to find that the one time this year they allowed better than 50% shooting, happens to be their last loss. That was also their last "true" road game, at Oral Roberts, who went for 73 pts on 53.1% shooting. Again, Valpo has got to be thrilled to be back on campus as they are a perfect 5-0 straight up here this season and are outscoring their visitors by an incredible margin of 28.0 points per game! The Crusaders can play a little defense as well as they're holding foes to just 39.0% shooting for the year. At home, that percentage dips down to 33.0% (just 24.4% from 3-pt range!) and opponents score only 54.8 PPG here. They went just 1-5 SU on that brutal road trip, but had started out 8-0 SU before that. Note too that the Crusaders are off B2B outright losses as a favorite. In addition to being a very short favorite over Indiana State on Thursday, they were laying 6.5 to UC Riverside in a 73-60 loss on 12.20. The market still respects them though, and so do I. 8* Valparaiso |
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12-31-17 | Redskins v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 10-18 | Win | 100 | 113 h 48 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): This is a game where nothing is on the line as both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. In the case of the 2-13 Giants, they've been out of playoff contention for some time in what has been a complete disaster of a season. Now, I had them ranked pretty high on my list of "likely disappointments" for 2017, but even at my most pessimistic, I could not have envisioned this. Already, there have been changes at head coach and GM, so clearly the organization is already thinking about next season when they'll likely be starting someone at QB not named Eli Manning. But in what could be Eli's final start at Giants Stadium, I expect the G-Men to show up. It's not like 7-8 Washington has any reason to be motivated. This will be just the third time in the last dozen years that the Redskins are a road favorite over a NFC East rival. They didn't fare too well the 2nd time, which was earlier this year in Dallas, as they were routed (38-14!) by a short-handed Cowboys team (no Elliott). I'll take the points here. The Giants have not won since Ben McAdoo was fired, but they did play hard in their last home game, which came against a division rival (Eagles). In that game, they actually finished w/ a nice edge in total yards (504-341). Despite him being an alleged "offensive guru," the Giants NEVER scored 30+ points under McAdoo. It was back to their old selves last week as they were shut out 23-0 in Arizona. That said, they also had the edge in total yds there, albeit just barely (293-289). One of the Cardinals' three touchdowns came from the defense late in the game and over half their total yardage came on just two drives. The Giants are w/o two key members of their secondary (Landon Collins and Eli Apple, who ironically are feuding), but the offense showed enough life in the Philly game to give me confidence here. Washington is not favored often (only five times previously this season) and they've been decimated by injuries - on both sides of the ball. The offense's yards per play have gone WAY down this season and speaking of potentially departing QB's, Kirk Cousins may have "one foot out the door" here. The defense, which is second worst in the league at stopping the run, are w/o key players at all levels. On the road this year, the Redskins are -7.5 PPG. 8* NY Giants |
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12-30-17 | Wisconsin -4.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
8* Wisconsin (8:00 ET): The Big 10 has proven itself to be quite formidable this bowl season, topping all conference's w/ a perfect 5-0 SU record (4-1 ATS), led by Ohio State's 24-7 win over USC last night. Wisconsin is the team the Buckeyes beat in the Conference Championship and while they're prob NOT the Big 10's 2nd best team (Penn State is), the Badgers were unbeaten going into their last game and that should be respected, even though the Orange Bowl against Miami qualifies as a "true" road game. This is a line that dropped quite a bit during the week (I didn't really understand why), but has since risen back. That reminds me of the Va Tech-OK State betting pattern where I was on the favorite (who ended up covering). Lay the points here. Remember when "The U was back?" How long is this tired narrative going to be pushed. Like Wisconsin, Miami was undefeated late in the year. They were thinking playoff following a 41-8 demolition of Notre Dame here in Coral Gables and then the team ran its mark to 10-0 (SU) after beating Virginia 44-28 the following week. But then, the bottom dropped out. They were upset at Pitt (24-14), as 12-pt favorites, in the regular season finale. Then, Clemson absolutely hammered them in the ACC Title Game, 38-3. Now injuries played a significant role in that late season swoon, but it's not like they've gone away. TE Chris Herndon is out as is WR Ahmmon Richards. That's two of the team's top receivers right there. QB Malik Rosier was awful down the stretch, completing less than 50% of his passes the L6 games. Oh by the way, the 'Canes are also w/o RB Mark Walton. None of that is good news when getting set to face what is, statistically speaking, the top defense in all the land. Wisconsin gives up just 253.2 YPG (only 92.6 on the ground) and 13.2 points per game. All the focus here will probably be on Miami's turnover chain and while it's true they did force 30 turnovers over the course of the season, Wisconsin wasn't far behind w/ 26. The 'Canes live and die by TO's, but I'll trust QB Alex Hornibrook to be careful w/ the ball here. The Badgers were 5-0 SU in the reg season as a road favorite, covering the spread in four of those games. 8* Wisconsin |
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12-30-17 | Cavs -3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 101-104 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Thus far, it has not been a positive West Coast swing for the Cavs as they first dropped a game to the Warriors on X-Mas Day, then came in w/ a "Holiday Hangover," losing to the lowly Kings on Wednesday. So my view is that the reigning three-time Eastern Conference Champs will be pointing to this game as a "get well spot" and thankfully the reeling Jazz will be all too kind to oblige them. Utah has dropped six of seven, the most recent loss coming by 25 pts at Golden State. They have been as bad as any team in the league this month (2-10 SU overall since December 5th), thus I'll disregard the fact LeBron and company are a money-burning 5-22 ATS as favorites this season (that eventually has to turn around, right?). Lay the points. Cleveland beat the Jazz earlier this month, 109-100, at home obviously. They didn't cover however (were laying -9.5), yet I'm a little surprised no real adjustment has been made by the oddsmakers for this rematch. As I stated above, Utah has not been good recently. Their last five losses have all come by double digits (14 or more), four of those coming by 20+! Now this is a much better team here at home and the recent schedule hasn't been kind w/ a plethora of road games. But there's no Rody Gobert either and that's had a real adverse effect on the team defense, which has allowed the L5 opponents to shoot 49.5% from the floor while averaging 106.5 PPG. Cleveland is all offense, but has been shut down dramatically the L2 games. They shot a mystifying 25% from two-point range against the Warriors and then just 43.2% overall against a Sacramento team that is awful defensively. Something I've been harping on for weeks now is that the Cavs are awful defensively themselves, but that should NOT hurt them here as Utah plays at a slow pace (bottom five in possessions per game). Before getting held under 100 pts in B2B games, Cleveland had topped the century mark in 26 consecutive games. They've made 10 or more three-pointers in 20+ consecutive games. Too much offense here from the road favorite and this is LeBron James' birthday, so he should be highly motivated. This is a small number the oddsmakers have attached, so a SU win likely = a cover. 10* Cleveland |
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12-30-17 | Davidson -5.5 v. Richmond | Top | 58-69 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
10* Davidson (4:30 ET): Steph Curry's alma mater is off a 7th place finish in the Diamond Head Classic as they won their final game out on the island (Hawaii), thereby avoiding finishing last in the eight-team field. Now it's time to start Atlantic 10 play and the Wildcats do so here w/ a very favorable matchup against a Richmond squad that is struggling mightily. The host Spiders have dropped eight of nine, the lone win during that stretch coming by three over James Madison. Adding to the motivation, this is a double revenge spot for Davidson as they dropped both meetings LY, including one as 11-point home favorites on New Year's Eve. Though Richmond hasn't played in a week, they are off an OT loss (to Boston College) and a game that was actually delayed a day (weather) before that. I'm laying the points. Davidson's 91-78 win over Akron on Christmas was their best offensive effort of the month, led by Kellan Grady's career-best 30 points. In retrospect, things could have gone much better for the Wildcats out in Hawaii, but they dropped two close games, one to the host. They shot only 38.1% from the field against Hawaii and that was preceded by a last-second loss to New Mexico State (by one). That loss to NMSU was particularly brutal when you consider a second half rally had Davidson in front by seven w/ 7:35 to go (trailed by eight at halftime). Richmond is only 1-5 SU on its home court this season, largely due to the fact they are allowing visitors to shoot at a 53.3% clip here. So I'm expecting a second straight strong offensive showing from Davidson (average 79.3 PPG already) here. The Spiders are just 2-10 SU overall and getting outscored by 11.5 points per game. As I mentioned earlier, they did take their last opponent (Boston College) to overtime and that came after the game vs. Bucknell was delayed a day due to weather (5" snow). Even after the long break and this still being relatively early in the season, you have to wonder what the Spiders have left to give. Right now, they project as the weakest team in the Atlantic 10, so this is a game Davidson simply MUST win if it wants to remain remotely relevant in the conference race. 10* Davidson |
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12-30-17 | Washington +3 v. Penn State | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -125 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
10* Washington (4:00 ET): What a difference one year as makes as last year at this time, we were having a discussion over which of these two teams belonged in the College Football Playoff. Washington got the nod and was generally outclassed by Alabama, losing 24-7 as 2-TD underdogs. Penn State was "relegated" to a Rose Bowl appearance and after an impressive start to that game (led big), they lost to USC, 52-49. So both schools will be looking for a bit of atonement in this year's edition of the Fiesta Bowl. Both teams went 10-2 SU in the reg season, neither making their respective conference title game. Washington lost to Arizona State and Stanford (both on the road) while Penn State fell to Ohio State and Michigan State (also both on the road). It seems like an even matchup, but I'll take the points. The Fiesta Bowl has been kind to Penn State in the past as they are 6-0 SU all-time in this game, including a win in the de facto 1986 Title Game (vs. Miami FL). Their two losses this year came by a combined four points and over the L2 seasons, four of their five losses have been by a field goal or less (49-10 loss at Michigan the exception). I went "against the grain" w/ this Nittany Lions team for 2017 and predicted they would disappoint, so two reg season losses did not surprise me. They are a VERY public side here, something else that doesn't surprise me, as they're the more "known" commodity. But what bettors really need to know is that Washington has one of the top run defenses in the country (just 2.6 YPG allowed) and that's the key to beating Penn State. In their losses to Ohio State and Michigan State, the Nittany Lions ran the ball for only 156 yds total, despite the presence of Saquon Barkley. I expect them to struggle to establish the run again here. Note that this game marks the first time all season UW has been an underdog. Over the L2 seasons, the playoff game vs. Alabama is the ONLY time Chris Petersen's team has been getting points. We have two offenses that have both scored 30+ pts ten times during the regular season, but both also allow 15.5 PPG or fewer (UW allows 14.5 PPG). Penn State's offensive line is a little suspect (74th in sack rate allowed) and I believe the Washington defense, led by Myles Gaskin, will be the difference in this one. 10* Washington |
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12-30-17 | Iowa State v. Memphis -4 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
8* Memphis (12:30 ET): So, Iowa State entered bowl season tied w/ Fresno State (who ended up covering their bowl game) for the best ATS record in the country. Led by a defense which allowed just 21.0 PPG, they pulled upsets of Oklahoma and TCU along the way. So the Cyclones certainly won't be intimidated here by the high-flying offense of Memphis (47.7 PPG). However, there are several disadvantages they are facing here. Not only is Memphis' offense far superior (ISU only +21 YPG), they also have a large edge on special teams. Then there is a matter that this is the Liberty Bowl, Memphis' home stadium. The Tigers won all seven home games during the regular season, by an average of 19.3 PPG, while averaging 50.1 themselves. Memphis averaged slightly more PPG than both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, ISU's two Big 12 rivals. I think it's definitely fair to say that Iowa State overachieved in 2017. They were only favored in four games. They won all four of those, also going 4-0 ATS. But the key was pulling three different outright upsets and going 6-2 ATS as a dog. I don't see them "sneaking up" on Memphis here. Originally picked for second to last in the 10-team Big XII, the 'Clones are looking for their first bowl win since 2009. They have not been to a bowl since 2012. Each of the previous four seasons saw them win three games or fewer. It was not a particularly strong finish to the regular season w/ them dropping three of the final four games. I just don't see the offense necessary here to keep pace with the favored Tigers. A similar call-back I have is to the Va Tech-OK State game where I sided w/ the latter (was correct). Also, I should point out that the 1st time we saw a team play its bowl at home, it was a complete blowout w/ FAU burying Akron. The Memphis' offense was not only second nationally in points per game, it was also fourth in yards per game (548.2). Led by QB Riley Ferguson, who completed 63% of his pass attempts for 3,971 yds and 36 TDs, they are lethal. All-American WR Anthony Miller had 92 catches for 1400+ yds, 17 of them going for TD's. RB Darrell Henderson averaged a ridiculous 8.9 yards per carry w/ he and Patrick Taylor, Jr combining for over 1900 yards over land. A final key here is turnovers. Iowa State won all seven games where it was positive in TO margin and winless when it did not win that battle. They have not lost a single fumble this season, which is somewhat preposterous. However, Memphis actually has a better TO margin at +14 vs. +11. 8* Memphis |
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12-29-17 | Washington +11 v. USC | Top | 88-81 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
8* Washington (10:30 ET): Pac 12 play commences on Friday and this is an interesting conference to handicap. Arizona is usually the favorite here, but it is their Territorial Cup rival (Arizona State) that has taken the nation by storm as the Sun Devils are currently one of only three teams w/o a loss this year. However, it's safe to say that ASU is nowhere close to its #3 ranking in terms of true talent (I have them barely cracking the Top 25). Beyond the two Arizona teams, it's anyone's guess as right now I don't see the Pac 12 sending a ton of teams to the NCAA Tournament. USC is the presumed third-best team, but there's a gap between them and ASU and I certainly wouldn't want to be caught laying double digits w/ the Trojans in this spot. Take the points. USC is off a successful trip to Hawaii as they won the Diamond Head Classic over the Holiday. The Championship Game of that tournament was played Christmas Day w/ the Trojans prevailing 77-72 over New Mexico State. Not that the Aggies are a bad team (they aren't), but I think it speaks volumes that USC was only a four-point favorite in that spot. They won and covered all three tourney games, but two of the wins (also Akron) were by five points or less. This team struggled after Thanksgiving, losing three straight, although that was against a pretty tough competition. But, remember, they also lost here at home to Princeton (overtime). Southern Cal was tied at the half against New Mexico State and needed a Ryan Boatwright three-pointer w/ 4.1 seconds left in the game, just to pull out the SU win. I view this as an EXCELLENT spot to fade the Trojans. Washington actually comes in w/ the better non-conf record of the two as they are 10-3 as opposed to USC's 9-4. After suffering two early season losses (Providence, Va Tech), the Huskies have won eight of nine, including three straight. Like USC, there have been some close calls lately w/ two (Loyola Marymout, Montana) of those three straight wins coming by three points or less. This is actually Washington's first "true" road game of the season, but I'm expecting a closely contested affair as they're better rested having not played a game in the last week. They average a healthy 80.5 PPG. 8* Washington |
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12-29-17 | Nets v. Heat -6.5 | Top | 111-87 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:05 ET): Looking at the current Eastern Conference landscape and what I thought it might look like back at the start of the season, it's safe to say Miami has been one of the bigger disappointments. Now, some of that is owed to the 13-game absence of Hassan Whiteside, who returned to the lineup earlier this week. But were it not for a loss at sorry Atlanta, the Heat would be coming into this game as winners of six of seven. In Whiteside's return, they dominated a bad Orlando team on Wednesday, winning 107-89 (4th quarter scoring was mostly responsible for that MOV). They host another bad team tonight, that being Brooklyn, who has dropped seven of eight including all three on the current road trip. I'll lay the points. Brooklyn's one win in the last two weeks came by a 35-pt margin (at home) over Washington. Other than that, they've been outscored by 88 pts in the seven losses. This team is a disaster defensively as they are allowing an East-high 110.7 PPG. Three times in the last seven games, they allowed 120 or more. This is owed to the fact they play at one of the fastest paces in the league, but like fellow also-rans (the Lakers, Phoenix and Orlando), it's not really working out for them. Nor has playing Miami as the Nets are just 1-7 SU/ATS the previous eight meetings, including a loss down in Mexico City (101-89) earlier this month. I expect Whiteside to play more minutes here than he did vs. Orlando (18) and for the Heat to drastically slow the tempo of this game down. In terms of number of possessions, no team's games see fewer than this one, at least in the East. Whiteside being back will also dramatically help Miami's defense, which just gave up only 89 pts to an Orlando team that (like I mentioned earlier) likes to place "fast," just like the Nets. D'Angelo Russell remains out for the Nets, by the way. There's just "something" about Friday nights for the Heat as they're a perfect 7-0 ATS on this day this season. 10* Miami |
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12-29-17 | Kentucky v. Northwestern -7 | Top | 23-24 | Loss | -115 | 533 h 32 m | Show |
10* Northwestern (4:30 ET): The reality of the modern bowl structure is that you're going to always have a fair number of subpar teams in the postseason. This year saw seven teams make a bowl that were outscored during the regular season. One of those is Kentucky, who - at least among "Power 5" (conference) reps - may be the weakest school involved. Not only were the Wildcats outscored by an average of about a full field goal per game, but they were also outgained by about 75 yards per game as well! Being that they are an overachiever, you also might be surprised to learn that they were 3-9 ATS, the worst such record among bowl teams. They rode a very easy SEC schedule (no 'Bama, Auburn or LSU!) to get here. Northwestern, unlike UK, closed its regular season strong. While it was apparent that no one would overtake Wisconsin in the Big 10 West, the Wildcats tried their best by winning and covering the last seven games! They did lose to both Penn State and Wisconsin (two top 10 teams), but besides a head-scratcher against Duke, that was it. Their 9-3 ATS record is among the best in the country and they were 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS favorites. Furthermore, while Kentucky was outscored and outgained during the year, N'western not only outgained opponents by almost 50 YPG, they also outscored them by almost 10 PPG. Basic metrics indicate that this year's Music City Bowl is a real mismatch. UK was outscored 86-20 in its final two regular season games, which came against Georgia and Louisville. Overall, they've dropped four of six. Defensively, Northwestern would appear to have a giant edge. They allowed just 20 points - total - the last three games (just 1 TD in the last two) while UK allowed 40+ pts three different times and 35.8 PPG overall over the second half of the season. There are also two specific areas where the Wildcats have the edge defensively. One is against the run (which will be handy here as run is what both offenses like to do). N'western is top 10 in the nation in yards allowed per carry (3.3) while UK is 89th (4.8). In the red zone, the Wildcats are dead last among bowl teams allowing points on over 92% of possessions. N'western is third best at 67.7%. Kentucky has not been successful in bowl games recently, last winning one in 2009 (lost last three). This is, on paper, one of the biggest mismatches of the entire bowl season. 10* Northwestern |
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12-29-17 | Texas A&M +3 v. Wake Forest | Top | 52-55 | Push | 0 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
8* Texas A&M (1:00 ET): After going 3-9 SU in each of Dave Clawson's first two seasons on the job, Wake Forest has now put forth B2B 7-win campaigns and is now in position to achieve its most wins in any season since the 2008 team. But they'll have to get by Texas A&M in this year's Belk Bowl to do so. While the Demon Deacons somewhat surprised me w/ a 7-5 SU reg season, A&M was largely a disappointment in finishing w/ the same record and that cost (now) fmr HC Kevin Sumlin his job. While they're thrilled to be welcoming in Jimbo Fisher (left Florida State) next year in College Station, there has been some question over the Aggies' level of motivation. I'm not buying it and will take the points even though WF is playing a virtual home game in Charlotte (not far from campus in Winston-Salem). Wake Forest finished w/ the same efficiency rating at Miami did in the reg season, which may surprise some folks. QB John Wolford improved exponentially this year, going from a negative TD-INT ratio his first three seasons as the starter to 25-6 this year. That improvement is also tied to an experienced offensive line, but that group will have its hands full in this game w/ an A&M front seven that was top five nationally in sacks (despite losing Myles Garrett to the NFL!). This is - easily - the best offense WF has had under Clawson, but remember they are w/o top WR Greg Dortch. His absence made the winning record all the more surprising to me. At 8-3-1 ATS overall, the Deacons definitely qualify as a "surprise." They did win their bowl game LY (as a 12-pt underdog!) against another school (Temple) that was going through a HC change, but I'm interested to see how they now perform in the role of favorite. There were just two times in the reg season that WF was asked to lay more than a TD against a FBS foe, one of them being the finale against Duke, which they promptly lost outright. Certainly, laying a field goal to a SEC opponent is uncharted territory for the Demon Deacons. I see two pretty evenly matched teams here w/ the coaching change for A&M being the reason for the field goal advantage. Like A&M, the Deacons have a suspect defense, one that allows 444 YPG for the season and 569 yards over the L4 games. So, look for the Aggies to be able to move the ball in this one. In the five games w/ Nick Starkel as the starting QB, their offense averaged 36 PPG. He will play here. The five teams that beat A&M this year were: LSU, Auburn, Miss St, Alabama and UCLA. With the exception of the Bruins (who A&M led big in the season opener), all those teams are better than Wake Forest. 8* Texas A&M |
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12-28-17 | 76ers v. Blazers -3 | Top | 110-114 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:35 ET): I think we've gone from "trusting" back to questioning "the process" in Philly. Make no mistake about it, the 76ers have been built the "right way" and will eventually be a force in the Eastern Conference. But I thought oddsmakers and the public were being far too optimistic w/ a win projection approaching .500 this season. Remember, they only won 28 all of last year (against 54 losses). I did NOT think the Sixers would be a playoff team this year and sure enough, a surprisingly hot start has subsided and the team now finds itself three games below .500, even after the win on X-Mas Day over the Knicks. Prior to that, they had gone 0-5 SU and ATS their L5 games. Lay the points w/ Portland here. The Blazers have had some time off to recoup. They did not play X-Mas, nor did they play either of the L2 days. They've been off ever since a 95-92 win over the Lakers on 12.23. That was a game where the bench actually scored 41 of the 95 pts, led by Maurice Harkless' 22. I expect a MUCH better performance from the starting five tonight, especially seeing as PG Damian Lillard (DNP vs. Lakers) is expected back. Lillard ranks sixth in the league in PPG (26.2) and also missed the team's 102-85 loss to Denver on 12.22. This is a really important game for the Blazers, who have not won on their home floor since November 18th against Sacramento (lost six straight!). It's also a revenge spot as they lost out in Philly, 101-81 (as 4-pt dogs), last month. In that game, the Blazers shot only 33.3% from the field. They'll almost certainly improve upon that number tonight. This will be the third straight road game for Philadelphia, who before holding the Knicks to 98, had allowed 100+ in 15 straight games. They've actually covered five straight meetings w/ Portland, but when visiting the Moda Center are accustomed to getting more points than this. While both of these teams can expect to compete for one of the final playoff spots in their respective conferences the rest of the way, Portland is better and there's value here laying the points. Over the L5 games, the Blazers are giving up an average of only 97.2 PPG and are the much better defensive team here. 10* Portland |
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12-28-17 | Michigan State v. Washington State +1.5 | Top | 42-17 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
8* Washington State (9:00 ET): We've seen a significant line move for this year's edition of the Holiday Bowl. Clearly, early bettors are banking on the notion that Michigan State will be "motivated" by being "slighted" in favor of rival Michigan, who got the better bowl spot on New Year's Day (Outback Bowl vs. S Carolina) despite losing to Sparty in the regular season. In my mind, what we now have is some nice value on a Wazzu team that should be hungry to atone for LY's bowl "no-show" against Minnesota. This is a program that still only has ONE bowl victory going all the way back to 2003. Perhaps, all things considered, it should be the Cougars that are the more motivated side come Thursday night. Take the points. Both teams finished their respective regular seasons 9-3 SU. Both come in ranked in the top 20. Truthfully, I wasn't as high as the pollsters were on either team. I said it multiple times throughout the regular season, but Michigan State was among the most fortunate teams in the country, record-wise. Consider that their point differential in Big 10 play was only +15 despite a 7-2 SU record. To put that number in its proper perspective, consider that Penn State (also 7-2 SU in Big 10 play) outscored its Big 10 foes by 186 points! Ohio State's point differential was +238! Sparty's Big 10 point differential was actually "in the black" (negative!) before thumping Rutgers, 40-7, in the last game. All other Big 10 wins were by 10 pts or less, four by a TD or less and that doesn't even include "stealing" a cover vs. Indiana w/ a late TD (won by 8). Wazzu outgained opponents by 132.2 YPG, better than MSU's 80.5. I have them rated slightly higher than Sparty in my own personal power ratings, so that's where the value comes in. I concede that the Cougs haven't done a whole lot worth mentioning outside Pullman this season. However, a key here is that their defense is far better than most realize. I expect this to be a low-scoring game where points could be at a premium. Note that in HALF their games this year, Michigan State failed top 18 points on offense! Led by QB Luke Falk, Wazzu comes in averaging 446.4 YPG on offense. They scored 30+ in eight games. Maybe they're held in check, but plus the points they are the play. 8* Washington State |
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12-28-17 | Detroit +4 v. Green Bay | Top | 83-95 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
10* Detroit (8:00 ET): Horizon League play commences on Thursday and w/ Valparaiso having bolted for the "greener pastures" of the Missouri Valley, this particular conference race seems to be wide open. Well, to be fair, Oakland is probably the favorite, followed by the team that won the Conf Tourney LY, Northern Kentucky. The two teams playing here, Detroit and Green Bay, are probably "middle of the pack" teams, but that doesn't make this game any less important. Especially w/ both entering conference play having losing records. Detroit, in particular, appears to be in real trouble as they've lost SEVEN in a row. But that will have them as the more "desperate" side here and thus I'll take the points. The Titans of Detroit will play their first two Horizon League games on the road w/ a date in Milwaukee following this one, on Saturday. There are definitely some defensive issues that need fixing here - in a hurry - if they are going to have any success in the conference portion of the schedule. Giving up 89.8 PPG is not a reciepe for success and counteracts the fact they average 84.4 PPG themselves. Five of those seven straight losses have been by single digits (other two to UCLA and Michigan) and some of those could have been flipped to W's w/ some better defensive effort. Thankfully, here, they may have found the perfect opponent. Green Bay comes in shooting only 41.1% from the field for the season and was held to 60 pts in its last game. Now that last game for the Phoenix was against Wisconsin. But they also dropped their previous home game, to Bowling Green. Overall, it's four losses in the past six games and both wins were against non-board teams. In fact, Green Bay has just one win over a lined foe and it was a two-point win, as a home dog, over Eastern Illinois. So I wouldn't be in a rush to lay points w/ this team right now. They were favored in both meetings vs. Detroit LY, but failed to cover each time, once losing outright (as 5-pt road favorites). Consider that they shot better than SIXTY PERCENT in the two games combined, something they almost assuredly will NOT be doing here, and still failed to cash. These teams have a history of playing close games. All signs point to taking the points. 10* Detroit |
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12-28-17 | Virginia Tech v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma State (5:15 ET): Both of these squads had bigger aspirations than the Camping World Bowl, but ironically I thought both had the potential for more severe regression in 2017. Va Tech was coming off a 10-4 SU year where they represented the Coastal in the ACC Title Game. But, from the start this year, I preferred Miami over them. A 7-1 SU start was a total mirage as the Hokies were, in fact, hammered down in Coral Gables. To be frank, they played a pretty weak schedule for an ACC squad and lost by double digits to both top 10 teams they faced. Their defense is good, but I just don't see them having the offense neccessary to keep up w/ QB Mason Rudolph and the Pokes. Lay the points. Oklahoma State finished their regular season 9-3 SU, same as Virginia Tech. A win here and they make it three straight 10-win seasons for HC Mike Gundy (and 4 out of 5!). In essence, the Cowboys' hopes and dreams for the year ended w/ a 62-52 loss to rival Oklahoma in early November. (Bedlam played early this year). I'm not putting much stock into a late season loss to Kansas State as the Pokes had little to play for while the Wildcats were fighting for bowl eligibility. Another similarity (besides WL record) to Va Tech is the Pokes lost to the two best teams on the schedule and beat West Virginia. But they also beat Iowa State, which is a better win than anything Va Tech has on its resume. There were actually two common opponents (that both beat) - WVU and Pitt. Oklahoma State's MOV was 49 pts while Va Tech's was only 13. This is the classic "clash of styles" matchup. Oklahoma State averages 46.3 PPG (3rd in FBS). Va Tech allows only 13.5 (5th). When I look at which unit is likely to come closer to its average, I heavily lean to the former's offense. For the 1st time in Big 12 history, we saw a 4,000+ yd QB (Rudolph), a 1,000+ yd RB (Justice Hill) and TWO 1,000+ yd WR's (James Washington and Marcell Ateman). Washington is the nation's top receiver. The Pokes were #2 in total yardage per game (575.5) and #1 in passing (392.3). Yes, Va Tech posted three regular season shutouts, but two of those were against Delaware (FCS) and Old Dominion. Getting back to the Hokies' inability to "keep pace" here, an already suspect offense will be w/o its leading rusher (Travon McMillian) and receiver (Cam Phillips). QB Josh Jackson only has a 9-7 TD-INT ratio vs. Power 5 teams and the Cowboys' defense is better than you think. 8* Oklahoma State |
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12-27-17 | Raptors v. Thunder -4 | Top | 107-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): Even though they are off (arguably) their biggest win of the season to date (over Houston, 112-107, on Christmas Day), I expect no letdown from the Thunder here as you should look for this team to quietly move up the standings in the Western Conference once we hit 2018. In fact, their predictable ascension has already started to take hold w/ five straight wins (7-1 SU L8) putting them into a fifth place tie (w/ Denver) entering play on Wednesday. As for the opponent, Toronto, they may have already hit peak value as they lost last night in Dallas, 98-93, snapping a six-game win streak. A weak schedule was a big reason for a 10-1 SU start to December, North of the Border. The Raptors are 16-2 SU against sub-.500 foes in 2017, but only 7-7 SU against winning teams. Lay the points. Playing in the second night of a back to back (on the road, no less) puts Toronto even more "against the wall" tonight. Yes, in the past, I've often said that teams are UNDERvalued in the second leg of a B2B and while - from a strict power ratings perspective - that appears to be the case here, looks can also be deceiving. It really can't be overstated just how weak the Raptors' recent schedule had been as they'd played struggling Philly twice, not to mention Charlotte, Sacramento (twice), Brooklyn, Phoenix (twice!) as well as the depleted Clippers and Grizzlies. This is a big step up in class, nevermind the fact they just lost to a bad Dallas team last night. DeMar DeRozan had one of "those nights" on Tuesday, shooting just 3 of 16 from the field and finishing w/ only eight points. As a team, the Raptors shot just 33.7% from the field. You might be thinking "well, Toronto will definitely improve on that shooting tonight." That's probably accurate, but to what degree. As I've been harping on for weeks now, OKC is #3 in the league in defensive efficiency. The "key" to this team starting worse than expected was that they went 0-5 SU in games decided by six points or less. They've since gone 9-1 SU in such contests. They're 11-3 SU overall in December, which is fairly comparable to the Raptors' record this month. Toronto isn't nearly the team on the road that they are at home while, conversely, OKC is significantly better at home than on the road. 10* Oklahoma City |
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12-27-17 | CS Bakersfield v. Arkansas -21.5 | Top | 68-95 | Win | 100 | 29 h 59 m | Show |
8* Arkansas (8:00 ET): The Razorbacks may not be ranked, but they do find themselves near the top of the "others receiving votes" category as they've only lost twice, albeit both times in blowout fashion. The first was a NCAA Tournament rematch w/ North Carolina while the other occurred in their only "true" road game to date (at Houston). Tonight should be another blowout, only this one being in their favor as they come off extended rest (last played eight days ago). The last game was another blowout that went their way, that one being a 104-69 demolition of Oral Roberts. They had no problem covering a 24-pt spread there, making it four consecutive SU and ATS wins for the Hogs. Make it five in a row here as we lay the points. They may not be ranked, but I could make a case for the Razorbacks being one of the 15 best teams in America (they are #7 in RPI!). They are top 50 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, ranking 18th in the former. Despite the two blowout losses, they have still managed to outscore opponents by an average of 16 PPG and here in Fayatteville, that number jumps all the way up to 25.3 PPG. During the current 4-game SU/ATS win streak, they've been a favorite of 16.5 or more points three times (and obviously covered every time). Only one of their six wins has been decided by fewer than 16 pts and that was against Minnesota (who came in ranked #14), a game they covered by double digits. Coming off the layoff, I expect little to no rust as the Hogs' ATS record when playing w/ 7+ days rest is 8-2. Last time out, they led Oral Roberts by 29 at halftime. They shot nearly 60% for the game and forced 27 turnovers. I should probably mention the opponent, no? Just like Oral Roberts, CS-Bakersfield is going to be ill-equipped to deal w/ the highest scoring team in the SEC and the pressure it brings. Four times this season, the Razorbacks have forced 19+ turnovers. While the WAC contingent has been better at protecting the basketball lately, that's only b/c they've been facing a weaker slate of opponents. Earlier in the year, they turned it over 25x against Northern Arizona. Despite the weak slate, the Roadrunners have still lost 5 of 8. This is just their fifth lined opponent of the season, and EASILY the toughest, save for Arizona (whom they lost to by 32). 8* Arkansas |
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12-27-17 | Boston College v. Iowa -2.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 35 m | Show |
10* Iowa (5:15 ET): The Hawkeyes have (infamously) not won a bowl game since 2010, dropping five in a row - both SU and ATS. But there's a big difference between this year's Pinstripe Bowl and those last five postseason appearances, that being they'll be favored here! Sure enough, four of those last five bowl games saw an unranked Hawkeyes squad "stepping up in class" to take on a ranked foe. That won't be the case this year vs. Boston College. B.C. does enter this game having won five of six, including victories over bowl teams Florida State, Virginia and Louisville. But they also lost starting QB Anthony Brown late in the season. I'm "hanging my hat" on Iowa being highly motivated here and I shouldn't have to remind you that they absolutely walloped Ohio State 55-24 last month. This will not be confused with a Big 12 regular season game. These two squads like to run the ball and play good defense. Both are top seven nationally against the pass. The final result will likely be decided by who runs the ball more effectively. Boston College RB AJ Dillon, a freshman, went for 1432 yards. Twice he went for 200+ yds in a game. Not to be outdone, Iowa's Akrum Wadley was a 1,000+ yard back and is also a receiving threat. The key though is the rushing defenses. B.C. is 103rd in the nation, giving up 5.0 yards per carry (198 YPG!). Iowa is significantly better in that area, allowing only 4.1 YPG and they also allowed only nine rushing TD's ALL YEAR! The Eagles defense may also be w/o DE Harold Landry, which would be significant. Again, Iowa beat Ohio State 55-24 this season. Thus, it was somewhat head-scratching that they finished w/ losses in two of the final three games, including one to Purdue. They scored just 29 pts total in the two games after beating Ohio State. But they did win six of the seven games they were favored in (straight up). They actually average 28.3 PPG and give up only 19.9. That's a better scoring margin than B.C. against what grades out as a harder schedule. I feel this line has decreased solely based on past Iowa bowl failures, but this is the first time in a long time where the Hawkeyes enter the bowl as the better team on paper. I have them rated as better on BOTH sides of the football. 10* Iowa |
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12-27-17 | Southern Miss v. Florida State -16.5 | Top | 13-42 | Win | 100 | 23 h 51 m | Show |
8* Florida State (1:30 ET): Save for Florida Atlantic (covered!), no team is a bigger favorite this bowl season than the Seminoles. This may surprise you given that this was the most disappointing season down in Tallahassee in recent memory. Not only did the 'Noles need to reschedule a 12th reg season game (vs. LA Monroe!) just to get to six wins, there's been some debate over their bowl eligibility as one of those wins was against a Delaware State program and maybe shouldn't have counted. But where there's no debate is FSU's talent level compared to that of Southern Miss. Playing for an interim HC, there is a question of motivation here, but I feel the 'Noles show up "ready to play" and I'll lay the points. Comparing the stats between these teams is not "apples to apples" as one team plays in the ACC and the other in Conference USA. Southern Miss won three straight and six of eight to finish the reg season at 8-4 SU, but the teams they beat are a real "rogue's gallery." Their "best" wins were on the road against La Tech and Marshall, both on the road. But those also came by a combined eight points. The other six wins were all against non-bowl teams. In fact, the Golden Eagles didn't even play a single opponent ranked in my top 65! So that's why they're such a prohibitive underdog in this spot. They shared one common opponent w/ FSU in the reg season, that being La Monroe. While the Seminoles beat the WarHawks by 32, the USM prevailed by just 11. Florida State's season essentially was tanked in the opener, when they lost to Alabama (were ranked #3 in the country at the time!) w/ QB Deondre Francois being lost for the season to injury. There's also a number of "healthy scratches" here with some players electing to skip the Independence Bowl in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. But those who remain will play hard for interim HC Odell Haggins, who has been a position coach here dating back to 1994 and may be coaching for his job w/ the Willie Taggert regime set to take over next year. It's also interesting that despite the majority of bets in this game being place on the underdog, the line has actually increased. That's typically a sign of "sharper dollars" being on the other side. 8* Florida State |
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12-26-17 | Kansas State v. UCLA +7 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -130 | 34 h 35 m | Show |
8* UCLA (9:00 ET): This is one of two bowl games on Tuesday's slate where the line has been dramatically impacted by the status of one team's QB. In this instance, Josh Rosen (concussion) is still not cleared to play for UCLA and that has them now listed as sizable underdogs to Kansas State in this year's edition of the Cactus Bowl. Rosen, who I would choose if I had the #1 draft pick in April (assuming he declares), would undoubtedly be a significant loss for UCLA. But often times, with injuries such as this one, we see an overreaction by the marketplace and that's what I'm banking on here. There's always the outside chance Rosen does play (and we'd have a great line if he did!), but at the same time, it's not as if Kansas State's defense is very good. Take the points. Yes, UCLA's defense is very bad at stopping the run and K-State has a significant edge on special teams. However, as far as the UCLA run defense goes, will the Wildcats be able to take advantage? Their offense is down to a third-string QB (Skylar Thompson). Tip your cap to the way this team finished its reg season (wins over Iowa State and Oklahoma State), but those two victories came by a combined six points. Kansas State is a program that I'd prefer much more in the underdog role, not as a favorite. They were favored only FIVE times in the reg season, one of those against a FCS program, another against one of the worst FBS teams in the country (Charlotte) and then also Baylor and Kansas (went a combined 2-22). They're being overvalued here. It's not like the Kansas State pass defense is very good either. So either Rosen or backup Devon Modster, should have a very big night here. The Wildcats' secondary allowed a completion percentage of 62.2 in the reg season with opposing QB's averaging 310 YPG. They gave up 432 YPG overall. As maligned as UCLA's run defense has been (rightfully so), they improved down the stretch (held USC to only 153 yds on 41 carries!) and Kansas State's offensive line will be w/o its starting right tackle Dalton Risner. If this is HC Bill Snyder's "swan song" for K-State, the team will certainly want to send him out a winner. But the UCLA players will certainly want to impress the incoming Chip Kelly regime as well. 8* UCLA |
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12-26-17 | Utah v. West Virginia +7 | Top | 30-14 | Loss | -113 | 26 h 16 m | Show |
8* West Virginia (1:30 ET): Most are simply writing WVU off here as they enter the Heart of Dallas Bowl w/o their starting QB, Will Grier. That's definitely a big blow, but NOT something they can't overcome and in the past, I've seen bowl teams overcome greater adversity. Furthermore, as a result of the Grier injury, the oddsmakers have gotten REALLY generous here. Remember that w/o Grier, the Mountaineers still scored 31 points and gained nearly 400 yds in the regular season finale. Now, they still lost because they were facing Oklahoma and the Sooners' offense is an absolute juggernaut. But Utah is not Oklahoma and won't be scoring anywhere near 59 points. I like the idea of WVU HC Dana Holgorsen having this much time to prepare. Take the points. Rather than "roll over" w/o their starting QB, I expect this dog to be quite motivated Tuesday afternoon. The West Virginia seniors have yet to cover a bowl game, winning only one and that was the 2015 Cactus Bowl (by a single point!) over Arizona State. Things were going quite well in Morgantown before the Grier injury as the team was 7-3 SU (went 10-3 SU last season). But they lost the L2 games to Texas and Oklahoma. Both of those teams are better than what they'll face here. Yes, I concede not having Grier does put a damper on the 16th ranked offense in FBS. But we saw Holgorsen get creative in the Oklahoma game (wildcat!) and I'm sure he'll have multiple wrinkles here. Also, the irony is that it many be the WVU defense that keeps them in this one. Exotic blitzing is something we see regularly from DC Tony Gibson and Utah's offensive line is not good. In addition to the Grier injury, another reason the Utes are getting plenty of "love" here is HC Kyle Whittingham's 10-1 SU bowl record. But how many times during that stretch have the Utes been an underdog? (A: more than not). The Utes were 6-2 SU/ATS as favorites this regular season, but just two of those games were away from Salt Lake and both came early (as in September). They also won both (Arizona, BYU) by just six points each. Too many people are writing off the Mounties here and I'll play 'contrarian' and grab the points. 8* West Virginia |
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12-25-17 | Wolves v. Lakers +3.5 | Top | 121-104 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 39 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): Minnesota made most people's "most improved list" for this season and thus far they have not disappointed, jumping out to a 20-13 SU start, which is good enough for fourth in the rugged Western Conference. Entering this game, they have won three straight (and six of eight) despite some defensive deficiencies. We've begun to see this team favored more often, even on the road, but it hasn't treated them too well as they're just 9-14-2 ATS as chalk. On Christmas Night, they'll travel to LA and face another team that's improved from last year, albeit not by as much as the T'wolves have. But the Lakers are a tough out (6-2 ATS) and a SIGNIFICANTLY better team on the defensive end here. So I'll take the points. Last year, the Lakers ranked dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. This year, they have risen to 7th! Don't look simply at points per game allowed; the Lakers typically play higher possession games than do the T'wolves. Let's credit the defensive efficiency as the primary reason LA has jumped up closer to respectability. Yes, their record is only 11-20 SU (inverse of Minnesota!). But they've only been outscored by 2.5 points per game. Consider the T'wolves have the opposite record despite a per game point differential of only +1.7. Off a three-point loss to Portland (where HC Luke Walton called the team out for "pouting"), expect a motivated Lakers squad here. This team has recently played Golden State tough (twice!). Due to an injured quad, Brandon Ingram did not play vs. Portland, but I won't be surprised to see him in the lineup here. I just don't trust a T'wolves team that is allowing opponents to shoot better than 48% for the season to lay points away from home. They've allowed 104+ point in four consecutive games. This will also be their third consecutive road game in a six-day span. The Lakers were actually favored against Portland (closed -3), which I didn't understand, but the underdog role certainly suits them better. Sure enough, we find them at 10-4 ATS this season when taking on a team that has a winning record. 10* LA Lakers |
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12-24-17 | Houston v. Fresno State +2 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 32 h 48 m | Show |
10* Fresno State (8:30 ET): When you talk about this year's biggest "surprise" teams, the name Fresno State simply must be on your short list. In the 1st year under HC Jeff Tedford (remember him?), the Bulldogs improved from 1-11 to 9-4 SU, making it the best turnaround job in the entire country. They won a division (MWC West) that was supposed to be San Diego State's for the taking and played Boise State very tough in the Conference Championship Game (I had 'em plus the points). It's been a LONG time since FSU won a bowl game (2007), so they will be highly motivated, something that I'm not sure will be the case on the Houston side. Also, Fresno State is no stranger to making this trip to the Island as they played here during the regular season. Houston is a program two years removed from upsetting Florida State in the Peach Bowl. They did not fare well in LY's bowl game, a 34-10 loss to San Diego State in Las Vegas. Now in their first year under the direction of Major Applewhite (Tom Herman bolted for Texas), they'll again have to play through some coaching turbulence as OC Brian Johnson has left for the same gig at Florida. Applewhite was previously the OC under Herman, so that may not matter much, but it's certainly not a positive. While the Cougars did upset USF during the regular season, they also suffered outright losses to both Tulsa and Tulane. We've seen teams unaccustomed to making the trip to Hawaii struggle in the bowl game before (Middle Tenn LY, Cincy two years ago). I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen to UH here. Fresno State won on this field, 31-21, as 9.5-pt favorites just last month. That started a four-game ATS win streak to end the regular season. Overall, this Bulldogs team was tied (w/ Iowa State) for the best ATS record in the country at 10-2-1. I was pretty shocked to see Houston scored more than 28 pts only four times in the reg season. Fresno State has a top 10 defense nationally in scoring, allowing just 17.2 PPG. (They rank 9th). Three of the teams above them are in the College Football Playoffs, plus you have the likes of Wisconsin, Penn State and Washington. So this is a very good defense, the more motivated side and a team more accustomed to venue. 10* Fresno State |
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12-24-17 | Giants +4 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-23 | Loss | -115 | 125 h 38 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (4:25 ET): These are two bad teams that I wouldn't want to lay points with, so the Cardinals are the ones to be faded this week, simply by default. Arizona is 4-9-1 ATS overall and is just 1-3 SU when favored, winning those games by an average of just one point per game. This is an offense that has not topped 16 pts in three consecutive games and is now being piloted by QB Drew Stanton again. Stanton was the starter for two games before spraining his knee back in Week 12. According to HC Bruce Arians, Stanton's knee "isn't completely recovered" and "he's still in a fair amount of pain." That should tell you all you need to know about Blaine Gabbert, who started the previous five games. The Cards were able to win two of those five games w/ Gabbert as the starter, both wins at home, those being somewhat shocking upsets of Jacksonville and Tennessee. But they have failed to gain even 300 total yds in B2B games and haven't scored a touchdown in 10 quarters! So again, not sure why you'd want to lay points with this team right now. All they've put on the scoreboard the last two weeks is nine Phil Dawson field goals. Defensively, they've been good. But the Giants' offense finally showed some life last week w/ a 29-point effort against the Eagles. It was their most points scored in any game the L2 seasons and they also gained a season-high 504 yards! Now this season has obviously been a disaster for the G-Men. Even I, who predicted big-time regression from them at the start of the season, could not have envisioned things would be this bad. HC Ben McAdoo was fired for his atrocious handling of QB Eli Manning, who is probably playing for pride at this point. Going back to the numbers last week, we saw what he's still capable of doing. With McAdoo gone, the team can at least play loose. Also, NY is pretty much "locked" into the #2 draft position next Spring. So, a win wouldn't necessarily "screw things up" either. While they're 0-3 SU and ATS as favorites, the Giants are a more respectable 6-5 ATS getting points this season. They're also 4-3 ATS on the road as opposed to 2-5 ATS at home. This one just boils down to the fact I don't see why you'd lay points w/ Arizona, who has not been favored since Week 9. 8* NY Giants |
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12-24-17 | Seahawks +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-12 | Win | 100 | 125 h 38 m | Show |
8* Seattle (4:25 ET): Since I became a professional handicapper (back in 2011), I'm not sure if there's been a single instance of "Seahawks stock" being any lower than it is right now. A number of injuries, primarily on the defensive side of the ball, was going to make qualifying for the playoffs a sixth straight time a "tall order." But last week's humiliation at the hands of the Rams (lost 42-7 at HOME) all but ended that aspiration. Now Russell Wilson and company have to hit the road to face a fellow 8-6 team, one that has renewed optimism due to the return of RB Ezekiel Elliott. That team is of course the Cowboys, who have now won three straight after being "left for dead" themselves on Thanksgiving. Dallas was fortunate to win last week in Oakland as Raiders QB Derek Carr fumbled through the end zone when it appeared his team was on the verge of going in for the game-winning score. Before that, the Cowboys had beaten the Redskins and Giants, two other "also-rans." I realize this is a "different team" w/ Elliott in the backfield, but they still could be w/o their best offensive lineman (Tyron Smith) and as we saw in the Atlanta game last month, that's a very big deal. Even w/ Elliott back and the Seahawks hurting, this game represents the Cowboys' toughest test since getting clobbered by the Chargers on Thanksgiving. When facing a team that has a winning record, in the second half of the season, America's Team is just 2-9 ATS the previous three seasons. I view this as a GREAT "buy low" spot on Seattle. First off, Wilson is 13-5-1 ATS as an underdog in his career. The L3 weeks have seen the Seahawks play the Eagles, Jaguars and Rams, who I - collectively - have rated as the top three teams in the league. It's been a much more challenging set of games than what the Cowboys faced as none of their previous three opponents rank inside my top 19. It's rare to find Seattle coming in off B2B losses, but they're 2-0 SU/ATS in that situation the L3 seasons. Furthermore, underdogs of three points or more, that are off a loss by 35+ points, have cashed in at an extraordinary 72.5% rate (37-14-2 ATS). Dallas is only 3-4 SU and ATS at home this season and 21-33-2 ATS laying points to fellow NFC foes. 8* Seattle |
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12-24-17 | Dolphins +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-29 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 14 m | Show |
8* Miami (1:00 ET): The Chiefs recorded a huge win last Saturday, beating the Chargers 30-13 at home. That all but assures they're going to win the AFC West for a second consecutive year (barring them losing both of their remaining games and LA winning theirs). So, in essence, we've got a bit of a "flat spot" on our hands this week. While the narrative here will center around "KC being back on track," all they've done is win B2B home games against the division. It will be easy for them to overlook the Dolphins this week and I feel that taking the points is the way to go here. The Chiefs are only outscoring opponents by roughly four points per game this season and have not been favored by this many point at any other point this season. In fact, the Chiefs are 0-2 ATS the L3 seasons as DD favorites. This team simply isn't built to blow teams out, even though they have won by double digits each of the last two weeks. But again, keep in mind those were familiar foes they were playing for the second time this season. Miami is a team they have not seen since 2014 and that was a different Dolphins' regime. There are also a number of players on the Chiefs' roster battling an illness this week. The list includes LB Justin Houston, TE Travis Kelce and LT Eric Fisher. All have missed practice time this week and even if any/all play Sunday, they likely won't be 100 percent. Miami still does have an outside shot at the playoffs, so don't expect them to go down easily here. They must win both remaining games and hope for some help. It's a long shot, but again, expect effort this week after a poor showing in Buffalo. Remember we're less than two weeks removed from them upsetting the Patriots! There are two other factors that have me believing the Dolphins keep this game close. One is that the weather forecast calls for high winds, meaning a low-scoring game is a very real possibility. Two, the Chiefs are 0-6-1 ATS their last seven games hosting a sub-.500 foe. They were favored by at least six points (as they are here) in all seven contests. My best guess for this one is that KC wins a very close game. 8* Miami |
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12-24-17 | Chargers v. Jets +7.5 | Top | 14-7 | Win | 100 | 121 h 14 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (1:00 ET): A Chargers resurgence is something that I'd been calling for the better part of the last two seasons. But I have to admit; once they started 0-4 this year, I'd pretty much given up all hope. The inability to stay healthy, play turnover free football or win close games kept dooming them and thus when they were 3-6 SU, most (myself included) considered them a mere afterthought. But then they won four straight games - three of them by 17 pts or more - to get back into the playoff hunt. It was "put up or shut up" time last Saturday in Kansas City as LA had a chance to take over first place in the AFC West. One of the (several) reasons I laid off there was the Chiefs were simply a stronger opponent than what the Chargers had faced recently. Sure enough, the Bolts lost 30-13 and their playoff hopes are now on "life support." The Chargers are basically looking at just the Wild Card at this point. They'll obviously need some help to get it as Baltimore has an easy schedule, and thus is likely to claim one of the two WC's. Tennessee is a game up, but has two difficult home games to play. The Chargers have the tiebreak (head to head) over a Bills team they crushed in the "ill-fated" Nathan Peterman start. Best case; LA wins out and somehow ends up in a 9-7 tie w/ Buffalo for the final spot. But you have to wonder about the psyche of the team after last week's humbling at the hands of the Chiefs (8th straight loss to KC). This is also an early start time for the West Coast team and they won't have TE Hunter Henry (done for year), one of QB Philip Rivers' favorite targets. RB Austin Ekeler, injured last week, is dealing w/ a broken hand. On the defensive side of the ball, they will be w/o MLB Denzel Perryman and DT Corey Liuget. Special teams are also still a major concern here as the kicking game has made a league-low 70.4% of its FG attempts this season. The Jets have already exceeded their projected win total for the season and have been competitive here at home. Their record at MetLife Stadium is 4-3 SU and that includes a win over the same Chiefs team that has beaten LA twice. None of the three home losses have been by more than eight points. Of course, Bryce Petty is the QB of Gang Green now, but that didn't stop them from cashing for me last week (at New Orleans!). To me, if the Chargers are to win this game, it will be close (something they are due to do). The Jets are only being outscored by 4 PPG for the year. 10* NY Jets |
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12-23-17 | Appalachian State v. Toledo -7 | Top | 34-0 | Loss | -100 | 74 h 47 m | Show |
8* Toledo (7:00 ET): This would be a rare bowl rematch from the previous year as Toledo, now the favorite, takes on Appalachian State. The two schools met in LY's Camellia Bowl w/ App State prevailing 31-28 in what was a very even game. Four times the Mountaineers scored a TD, only to be answered by Toledo doing the same. It wasn't until a FG w/ just over five minutes remaining that they took the lead for good. This year saw Toledo finally capture that elusive MAC Championship (1st since '04) while App State had to settle for sharing first place in the Sun Belt (where there is no Champ Game). As I mentioned earlier, the Rockets are the favorite this year as the teams line up in the Dollar General Bowl in Mobile, AL. Being the underdog has not suited Appalachian State well recently. They are 0-6 straight up in such games the L3 seasons. Twice they were getting points this season and both times they were a trend call to pull the upset. Both times, they (obviously) failed. One was the season opener against Georgia, the other at home vs. Wake Forest. Toledo might not be as good as either of those two side (obviously not as strong as Georgia), but they are an 11-win outfit that is superior to the vast majority of App State opponents this year. Interestingly, the Mountaineers avoided both of the other top teams in the SBC, those being Troy and Arkansas State. As I've mentioned in past analysis this bowl season, the SBC was really weak this year beyond the top three. Of note is that ASU scored only 10 and 19 pts the two games in which they were dogs. Toledo's offense is very strong, led by QB Logan Woodside, who was the only signal caller in the nation besides Heisman winner Baker Mayfield to throw for 25+ TD passes w/ fewer than eight interceptions (28-5 ratio). He finished the reg season w/ 3,758 yds passing as the Rockets averaged 11th nationally in scoring (39.2 PPG) and 8th in total (509.9 YPG) offense. They will be the best unit on the field Saturday night. While App State lost to the likes of UMass and LA Monroe (two bad teams), Toledo's only two losses were to Ohio U and Miami, both on the road. Turnovers were the story in both losses. Assuming the Rockets can protect the ball here (had zero TO's LY vs. App State), then they should win going away. 8* Toledo |
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12-23-17 | Ohio State v. North Carolina -6.5 | Top | 72-86 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
10* North Carolina (1:30 ET): This is a case of "wrong place, wrong time" for Ohio State on Saturday afternoon in New Orleans, as part of the CBS Sports Classic. North Carolina is off a humiliating 79-75 loss to Wofford at home on Wednesday and I suspect will be "out for blood" as a result. Despite that embarrassment, I think it's still fair to consider the Tar Heels to be one of the top 10 teams in the country. They come into today WAY undervalued against an Ohio State team that has a similar record (10-3 SU) but is still not even in my top 40. The Buckeyes have played only one "true" road game so far, and while it was a very impressive win (83-58 over Wisconsin!), it was a conference game. Lay the points here in a "get well spot" for Roy Williams' team. The last time UNC lost B2B games was February of 2016. Prior to the shocker vs. Wofford, their only other loss was to #2 Michigan State and they immediately responded w/ a double digit win over another Big 10 squad, that being Michigan. Making the Wofford loss all the more perplexing is the fact UNC attempted a season-high 38 free throws in that game, even making 28. They'd won 23 straight in Chapel Hill previously, but couldn't make a shot Wednesday as they were limited to 36.4% shooting for the game. Wofford, who was picked to finish SIXTH in the SoCon, was a 25.5-pt dog and led the entire second half. Simply put, you won't see a more shocking upset the rest of this College Basketball season. Remember though; it was Sunday where I cashed these Tar Heels in an impressive road win over Tennessee. Ohio State has played only one ranked team all season and that game did not go well as they were trounced by Gonzaga, 86-59. Gonzaga is of course the team that lost to UNC in last April's National Champ Game. The Buckeyes are only 8-15 straight up, all-time, against top five foes. They have largely feasted on a weak non-conf schedule w/ most of the games taking place in Columbus. I'd say hosting William & Mary, Appalachian State and The Citadel (OSU's last three opponents) is hardly "good primer" for this nationally televised matchup. The Bucks are just 2-7 ATS their last nine neutral court games while UNC is 6-1 ATS laying between 6.5 and 9 pts at a neutral setting. 10* North Carolina |
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12-23-17 | Tennessee -1 v. Wake Forest | Top | 79-60 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY.... PLEASE DISREGARD! |
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12-23-17 | Texas Tech v. South Florida -2.5 | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 67 h 48 m | Show |
10* South Florida (12:00 ET): I realize that there's a legit question of motivation on the side of USF, who can't be too thrilled about a return trip to the Birmingham Bowl given that they came into this season w/ thoughts of crashing the "New Year's Six" party. They only lost twice, one of those coming in what was quite possibly the "Game of the Year" in College Football, to unbeaten UCF. (Ironically, that 49-42 result enabled UCF to usurp USF's dreams and go on to play in the Peach Bowl vs. Auburn). Regardless though, on paper, the Bulls should have little difficulty w/ a pedestrian 6-6 Texas Tech squad that may just "be happy to be here" after upsetting Texas in the regular season finale. Lay the short number. South Florida HC Charlie Strong knows this opponent well from his own time in Texas. His Longhorns teams went 2-1 SU/ATS vs. the Red Raiders, twice scoring 45 pts against them. The offense he brings in this time is far superior than any edition he had in Austin. Led by sensational QB Quinton Flowers, the Bulls averaged 38.3 points per game (15th nationally) and north of 500 YPG. Usually, Texas Tech has the offensive edge over its opponents, but that is NOT the case here. In fact, over their last three games, the Red Raiders averaged just 22.7 points per game and 4.9 yards per play. Defensively, the Bulls have the edge as well. They allow just 22.5 PPG, as opposed to 31.7 for Texas Tech. Granted, you have to factor in that Texas Tech played the more challenging schedule, but still, the stats are slanted far enough in USF's direction that I'm willing to overlook that. This is just the third bowl in five seasons for TT under Kliff Kingsbury. Many in Lubbock felt Kingsbury was on the proverbial "hot seat" coming into 2017 as he was off a 5-7 SU season and projected to finish as low as 8th in the 10-team Big XII. As mentioned above, they needed to win their reg season finale (as 7.5-pt dogs at Texas) just to become bowl eligible. Getting back to the question of motivation for USF, I think the opportunity to knock off a Power 5 school is enough for them to "get up" for this game. They're the better team and laying a small number, I expect them to roll. Over the L3 seasons, in games where the line is three points or less, USF is 4-1 SU/ATS while TT is 1-5 both ways. 10* South Florida |
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12-23-17 | Harvard +4.5 v. George Washington | Top | 48-58 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
8* Harvard (12:00 ET): Credit the Ivy League contingent for taking on a challenging non-conf schedule as Thursday's 74-63 triumph over Boston U marked just the THIRD home game of the season to date! It's now B2B wins for the Crimson, who treated me well w/ an "ugly" 47-45 win over Fordham, all the way back on December 6th. So even though this is their second game in three days, this won't be a tired team as it's also only their second game in 17 days! Now there is some possible attrition here as two players - Bryce Aiken and Robert Baker - are both listed as questionable for this afternoon. Aiken, the team's leading scorer, injured his knee vs. Fordham and would be a big loss if he did not play. (Baker is a reserve whose presence won't matter much). Aiken or not, I like Harvard plus the points in this spot. GW snapped a two-game losing streak on Wednesday, but it was close as they only beat New Hampshire (non-board team) by four points. The Colonials even had to rally back from a small halftime deficit just to win the 1st ever meeting between the two schools. The team does hold an impressive upset of Temple (as 11.5-pt dogs) last month, but do not have a win by greater than 11 pts all season. Ironically, that 11-pt victory came against another Ivy League school (Princeton), but since that time GW has not shot the ball well, particularly in the losses to Penn State and Miami (both sub 37% performances). Against New Hampshire, they were actually outshot, allowing the Wildcats to connect on 52% of their field goal attempts. Meanwhile, following B2B poor shooting nights against Kentucky and Fordham, Harvard was able to regain its shooting touch by hitting 55.3% of its FG attempts vs. Boston U. Keep in mind that came w/o Aiken, which is why I'm willing to somewhat "roll the dice" here w/ the Crimson. The team's five starters made only 10 baskets against Boston U, a number which will certainly go up here, with or w/o Aiken. That will counteract any regression from the reserves, who were sensational (16 of 28 from the field!) the last game. Over the L3 seasons, Harvard has gone 11-1 ATS in the month of December (light schedule due to exams) while George Washington is 16-23 ATS the L39x it has been a favorite. 8* Harvard |
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12-22-17 | Hornets +5 v. Bucks | Top | 104-109 | Push | 0 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (8:05 ET): Things are rapidly falling apart in the "Queen City" where a Hornets team that was due to improve this season simply can't buy a break. Consider for a moment that since the start of last season, this team is 0-13 straight up in games decided by three points or less! (I shouldn't need to tell you that is - by far - the worst such record in the league during that time). Also, injuries continue to take their toll w/ Cody Zeller out indefinitely (just as Nic Batum was getting going) and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist hurt his shin in the last game (listed as probable for tonight though!). The "cherry on top" has to be that HC Steve Clifford is away from the team for an indefinite period due to a "health issue." Despite everything you just read, however, I'm going in big on the Hornets tonight. Yes, they've lost 11 of 13 w/ Wednesday's 18-pt home loss to Toronto being their worst (in terms of margin) since November 25th. But they'd won their game previous to that one, 109-91 over the Knicks. The road has been unkind to Charlotte this season (2-11 SU), but despite that record they're "only" being outscored by 5.4 points per game. Milwaukee is off an emotional win (here at home) over Cleveland earlier in the week (Tuesday), but continues to play poor defense as they've allowed 115, 115, 115 and 116 pts their last four games. One positive sign for the Hornets was that reserve Jeremy Lamb scored a career-high 32 pts in the game vs. Toronto. This is the front end of a home and home between the two teams. "It's tough to beat a team two times in a row whether it's back to back like it is this week or within a couple weeks or a month," Bucks wing Khris Middleton said. That was proven true earlier this year when these teams split a pair of matchup in late October/early November, each winning on their home floor. The Hornets didn't have Batum for either matchup, but Kemba Walker scored 26 pts (on 8 of 12 shooting) in the win (126-121). Even though they lost on Wednesday, it was Charlotte's second highest scoring game this month. I believe the Bucks will come out flat tonight and their poor defense will cost them in the end. Note that they've been favored only one time in the last five games and lost that game, at home to Chicago. 10* Charlotte |
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12-22-17 | UAB +7.5 v. Ohio | Top | 6-41 | Loss | -130 | 48 h 5 m | Show |
8* UAB (12:30 ET): Off to the Bahamas we go Friday afternoon where we're likely to find a highly motivated underdog, one that NO ONE could have possibly predicted would be in a bowl game this year. UAB HC Bill Clark just might be the Coach of the Year in College Football as he led a team that didn't even play a single game last season (program was temporarily dropped after 2014) and guided them to a stunning 8-4 SU regular season. Meanwhile, I can't say that Ohio U will be very motivated for this trip. Not only did the Bobcats blow what was a golden opportunity to win the MAC East at the regular season, but they're currently dealing with numerous injuries. I have a ton of respect for the job Frank Solich has done in Athens, but he's only 2-8 straight up in bowl games here. Take the points. Adding to UAB's motivation here is that they have NEVER won a bowl game in school history. The last and only time they were in one was '04 (Roddy White era!) and they lost the Hawaii Bowl 59-40 to ... Hawaii. Though again "off the mainland," this is a far better matchup for them. The Blazers' one weakness is stopping the run, so lucky for them that OU is likely to be w/o its top two leading rushers for this game, not to mention their leading receiver as well! As you might have guessed, UAB sprung numerous upsets during the reg season as they were 5-2 ATS as dogs, winning four of those games outright. Five of their games were decided by five points or less. All things considered, they did have some head-scratching losses, including one to Ball State (a MAC team). But they closed by winning four of five, the lone loss coming at Florida. When Ohio beat Toledo 38-10 on November 8th (as 3-pt home underdogs), it appeared as if they were in the drivers' seat to win the MAC East. Unfortunately, they then tanked, losing games at Akron and Buffalo, missing the spread by over 30 pts in those two games. The combination of injuries and disappointment likely take their toll here. Also, don't sleep on the UAB defense, which allows just 24.3 PPG (47th in the country) and only 188 passing yards per game. The MAC traditionally struggles in bowl games and I wouldn't want to lay this many points given the likely disparity in motivation. 8* UAB |
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12-21-17 | Gonzaga -3.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 48 m | Show |
8* Gonzaga (10:00 ET): Compared to last season, when they were still unbeaten and on their way to playing for the National Championship, Gonzaga seems a little bit "under the radar" (ranked #12). However, it should be pointed out that the 'Zags were only ranked 7th at this time last year and this year's squad has taken on a slightly more challenging schedule w/ both losses coming to Top 10 teams (at the time), one of them coming in double overtime. While that 2OT loss to Florida may look worse now, their only other defeat came at the hands of #1 Villanova at a neutral setting. The Bulldogs have had to settle for a pair of OT wins themselves, one of them against North Dakota (!) last week, but are off a 30-pt win on Monday. This may only be their 2nd "true" road game of the year tonight, but I like the Zags laying a small number. San Diego State is the opposition here and they probably can't wait to take the court, given that they've been off for 12 days and last time we saw them, they dropped a stunner (as 16.5-pt chalk) to Cal on this very floor. The Aztecs have just three losses, all of them to Pac 12 schools, and haven't been an underdog since the second game of the year (at Arizona State). However, they don't exactly have any quality wins to speak of, unless you want to count Georgia (I don't!), who I have rated as the 75th best team in the country. Defense remains the calling card here, even w/ Steve Fisher having been succeeded by long-time assistant Brian Dutcher. The Aztecs are holding opponents to 38.6% shooting and 64.2 points per game. The problem here though is Gonzaga averages 91.8 PPG on 51.4% shooting. Few teams shoot the ball better. At the same time, SDSU is only shooting 30.5% themselves from three-point range. With the five top scorers from LY's team gone, Gonzaga was expected to take a step back this year. The fact they've only lost twice says something positive about this group though and Mark Few's coaching. They blitzed IUPUI on Monday, 101-71, with Killian Tillie scoring a career-high 27 points. In their only other "true" road game thus far, the Zags crushed Washington by 27 points. I'm not sure what the deal was against North Dakota over the weekend (other than they didn't shoot well), but this spread is a bargain. 8* Gonzaga |
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12-21-17 | Grizzlies v. Suns +1.5 | Top | 95-97 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): Both of these teams lost last night, which is par for the course. We haven't even hit the New Year yet (which is when I really start to re-evaluate my preseason projections in NBA), but suffice to say neither the Grizzlies nor Suns will be finding themselves in the playoffs in the Spring. For Phoenix, that's not a shock as they were expected to be one of the worst teams in the league. "True to form," they are 11-22 SU and have the second worst point differential (Kings) overall. Memphis, a team I personally expected to take a step back in 2017-18, has been a disaster ever since PG Mike Conley went down. They actually have a worse record than the Suns (9-22 SU) as they've lost 18 of their last 20 games w/ the two wins coming a month apart and by only four points total. At home here, I believe Phoenix to have the edge and there's actually value on them in this price range. Sure, they're 4-12 SU home record is a league-worst. But note that before losing to the Clippers last night, they'd started their three-game road trip w/ B2B wins, first over Minnesota, then over Dallas. This team has not been favored in a game since 11.19 (at home vs. Chicago) and there is a chance they could close in that role here. They are 7-3 ATS here in December and 5-3 ATS this season playing in the second night of a back to back. Last night, they never led in LA (trailed by 18 at halftime) in an awful shooting night. You have to think they'll play better here against a lesser opponent. Last night was also ugly for the Grizz as they scored only 33 pts in the second half on 10 of 44 shooting (yikes!), had 17 turnovers for the game and went 12 of 31 from three-point range. This is among the very worst offensive teams in the league right now and I imagine that w/o Conley, a case could be made that they are the worst on that end of the floor. It's five straight games (and counting?) that they've been held below 100 pts, three of those 87 or less, which is almost unfathomable in today's NBA. They've been just as bad against the spread as they've been straight up since the Conley injury, going 4-15-1 at the pay window. It doesn't matter the opponent; if you don't have to lay points against Memphis right now, then you should jump on the opportunity. 10* Phoenix |
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12-20-17 | Lakers +14 v. Rockets | Top | 122-116 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (8:05 ET): Playing against the Rockets may seem insane right now, but eventually they'll have to "tail off" as the current run has reached a peak of unsustainability. They come into tonight as winners of 14 straight and 20 of their last 21 overall. With Chris Paul in the lineup, they haven't lost a game all season! But tonight, while the SU result may not be in doubt, the oddsmakers have attached a very high spread for this matchup w/ the Lakers. While still not a "playoff team," the Lakers are much improved this year and will likely end up with a better record than the Clippers by season's end. They've only won two of their last 10 games, but the last two losses came against Cleveland and Golden State (by a combined 11 pts). Take the points here. When assessing the improvement of the Lakers this year, the easiest factor to identify is defense. Last year, they ranked dead last in the league in efficiency. This year, they are 8th. While the L3 games have seen them allow an average of 116.7 PPG, note that they took Golden State to overtime on Monday (tied 102-102 at the end of regulation) in an inspired effort, the night Kobe Bryant's jersey(s) were retired. The Lakers obviously covered the spread in that game, something they also did vs. Cleveland on the road. Their worst loss over these L10 games did come against Houston (by 23), back on 12.3, but they also shot really poorly in that game (38.1 FG%). That was their worst shooting effort in any game in the last month. Houston crushed Utah by 21 on Monday, their latest in a long line of blowout victories. Tonight marks their sixth straight home game, so the schedule has definitely been friendly. They are 7-1 SU/ATS the last eight meetings w/ the Lakers, but this is a much better LA team than past years. Two of the Lakers' last three losses have come in OT and they've lost to Golden State twice by a combined six points in the last month. The Rockets eventually HAVE to slow down or have at least one slip up. Don't let Monday's final score vs. the Jazz fool you as Houston actually TRAILED going into the fourth quarter. Prior to that, they'd allowed at least 100 pts in five of six games. I believe the Lakers should easily stay within the number here. 10* LA Lakers |
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12-20-17 | Louisiana Tech +5 v. SMU | Top | 51-10 | Win | 100 | 57 h 34 m | Show |
8* Louisiana Tech (8:00 ET): It was an "up and down" first day of Bowl games for C-USA's perspective w/ two wins and two losses on Saturday. League champ FAU's result (check Tuesday) is not in yet as of press time. Overall, C-USA sent NINE teams bowling this year, which has to come as a shock to those who don't really pay attention to the league during the regular season. Here, we have a La Tech team that won the West Division LY, but dipped down to 4-4 SU in league play and 6-6 SU overall this season. They had to win their final two regular season games, over UTEP and UTSA (two of C-USA's five NON-bowl teams), just to get here. But the Bulldogs' senior class is 3-0 SU in bowl games (favored every time), so it's easy to like them plus the points here. SMU became bowl eligible back in late October, but then sputtered down the stretch, losing three of their final four reg season games. The only win was the finale, against lowly Tulane, while they lost to AAC heavyweights UCF, Navy and Memphis. The big story here is that HC Chad Morris has bolted for the Arkansas job and will be replaced by Sonny Dykes. Running backs coach Jeff Traylor was to serve as the interim here, but decided to follow Morris to Fayatteville. So Dykes is jumping straight into the fire here in the Frisco Bowl. SMU does have an edge in location w/ this game taking place in Frisco and Dykes was previously the HC at La Tech (before leaving for Cal). But those two factors aside, this is a tough spot for Dykes, who has to coach a team he hasn't had much time to learn about (will have been on the job for only NINE days by gameday!). While La Tech is 3-0 SU in bowls under HC Skip Holtz (Dykes' replacement!), SMU has not been to a bowl since 2012 (when they stunned Fresno St in the Hawaii Bowl, 43-10, as 13-pt underdogs). SMU has the edge offensively in this matchup, but La Tech is clearly better defensively. SMU did win all seven games that they were favored in during the regular season, but was only 4-3 ATS. I just think that the whole coaching situation is going to be a major detriment for the Mustangs. As for La Tech, this game is not a far trip for them either and I think they'll be the more motivated side as they're ecstatic to just be in a bowl. 8* Louisiana Tech |
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12-20-17 | North Texas v. Georgetown -9.5 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
8* Georgetown (7:00 ET): Because so much has been made of just how weak the Hoyas' schedule has been to this point, there's going to be a desire amongst bettors to fade this team, almost blindly, on a game by game basis. Those who chose to do so on Saturday got a huge break w/ OT as Syracuse was able to prevail 86-79 as 5.5-pt chalk, handing G'town its first loss of the season. It's important to note that at no point in regulation were the Orange covering the spread, and in fact they were down by as many as 13 in the second half! It remains to be seen how HC Patrick Ewing deals w/ his first career loss, but my guess is that North Texas isn't likely to put up much of a fight here. Lay the points. Yes, Georgetown's schedule has been VERY weak. All but one of their games have been at home as they didn't even bother to play in any holiday tournaments. Their eight wins have come against teams that are currently 24-64 straight up. That being said, they have "taken care of business" against most of these lesser foes. Other than the one "true" road game they played (82-76 win at Richmond), the Hoyas have won every game by at least nine points. Now that still wasn't good enough for the oddsmakers most of the time as there were some huge spreads. But one thing I'm counting on tonight is that G'town won't be shooting 2 for 17 from three-point range. Again, mock the schedule all you want, but the Hoyas had Syracuse beat. North Texas is in the middle of a four-game trip that will take them all the way around the country. Last time out (Saturday), they upset San Diego, 86-3 as 10-pt dogs. It was the Mean Green's third consecutive victory, two of those come as dogs. Overall, they've covered their last five games, which is the exact opposite of Georgetown. But, even though they've played plenty of road games, UNT's schedule (save for Oklahoma) hasn't been that impressive either. Note that the road win they pulled off on Saturday was pretty rare. Prior to that, they'd lost seven straight "true" road games. So, what are the chances of them now winning two, back to back? Not good, I'd say and G'town is still outscoring its opponents by 15 PPG this season. There will be plenty of spots to fade the Hoyas later in the season, but this is NOT one of them! 8* Georgetown |
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12-19-17 | Auburn -4 v. Murray State | Top | 81-77 | Push | 0 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
10* Auburn (8:00 ET): The need to adapt on the fly is a prerequisite for handicapping any sport and in the case of College Basketball something very interesting has happened over the last several seasons. It seems, almost, as if "mid-majors" are getting TOO MUCH respect in games vs. teams hailing from power conferences. This mainly applies to the 1st weekend of the NCAA Tournament, but it also applies in a situation like this when the mid-major gets to play host and you have a short number. Tempting as it may be to take the home dog, in this instance Auburn happens to be significantly better than Murray State and I simply cannot justify this line being this low. Lay the points! Auburn comes into tonight w/ a 9-1 SU record and is averaging an impressive 86.0 PPG. They may not have a ton of impressive wins, but their only loss came on a neutral floor to Temple. That was over a month ago and since then the Tigers have won seven in a row, five by double digits. Now last week brought a pair of close encounters as they beat UAB by five and Middle Tennessee by six. I have Middle Tennesse rated higher than Murray State and the same holds true for Temple. So unlike Murray State, this will NOT be Auburn's most difficult opponent to date tonight. Note that the Tigers held a 17-pt lead at half over MTSU, who wound up shooting 50% from three-point range. Auburn typically shoots far better than 27.6% from behind the arc (what they shot vs. MTSU), so expect improvement in that area here. Murray State is a very good offensive team as they are currently making over 50% of their FG attempts for the year. They've outscored opponents by 17.6 points per game, but considering Auburn is +14.3 PPG against a slightly more challenging schedule, the Racers' point differential isn't all that impressive. Murray State's only loss came at St. Louis, exactly one week ago, before bouncing back w/ a 100-pt effort against Marist over the weekend. That performance is what likely has the Racers overvalued here as there's simply no way they are going to shoot 62.5% from the field again, especially against a taller and longer opponent. Also, Auburn has won its last four "true" non-conf roadies. 10* Auburn |
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12-19-17 | Akron +23 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 3-50 | Loss | -115 | 295 h 52 m | Show |
10* Akron (7:00 ET): This spread is the largest for any bowl in the past two decades and is simply begging for a call to take the points. That's what I'll do here, even though Akron is pretty clearly "up against it," playing a "true" road game in Boca Raton. The Zips were the surprise winners of the MAC East this year and finished 7-6 SU despite being outscored and outgained rather severely against FBS competition. But a late season upset over Ohio enabled them to win their division and then they "backdoored" Toledo in the MAC Championship Game, losing by only 17 as 20.5-pt pups. I see, at worst, a similar situation presenting itself here as the underdog should be highly motivated by the "disrespect card." FAU made my short list for most improved teams in the country this year as Lane Kiffin walked into a great situation as he was inheriting the most experienced team in the entire country! Also, the Owls were bound to improve upon a 1-4 SU record in close games. However, close games were not the reason this team made an unforseeable quantum leap in 2017 as they simply rolled the rest of Conference USA, going 9-0 (including Title Game) while outscoring opponents by 200 points. However, I worry about overconfidence from the Owls coming into this game as they really aren't accustomed to being this level of favorite. It wasn't until the final three games of the regular season that they were even asked to lay double digits! This is their second largest spread of the season, topped only by a matchup w/ Charlotte, who is one of the worst teams in the country. Kato Nelson, who took over late in the season for Thomas Woodson, will remain Akron's starting QB for this bowl game. Nelson played well enough down the stretch to justify the decision. But it's an opportunistic Akron defense that has me more intrigued as this group ranked 2nd in interceptions and #16 in turnover margin. They also are stingy in the red zone, ranking 25th in points allowed per trip. The Zips were 6-3 ATS as underdogs in the regular season and even w/ the homefield edge, I feel FAU should be closer to a two TD favorite rather than three. 10* Akron |
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12-18-17 | North Dakota State v. Arizona -22 | Top | 53-83 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
10* Arizona (9:00 ET): Sean Millers' Wildcats certainly expected better than being on the fringes of the Top 25 coming into the season, but the real shocker for this perennial Pac 12 power is that - right now - they're not even being recognized as the best team in their own state. Arizona State (still undefeated) has caught everyone by surprise, though I assure you that the Sun Devils are certainly NOT one of the five best teams in America. In fact, were the two Territorial Cup rivals to play tomorrow, I can say w/ full confidence that Arizona would be the betting favorite. Aside from a poor showing in the Bahamas (where all three losses took place), Miller's team has been just fine and I'm looking for them to role tonight in Tucson. Arizona has won five in a row since that ill-fated trip to the Battle 4 Atlantis and many of those wins have been close (three by six pts or less). But that was against some quality competition, better than what they'll face here. Also, on Saturday, they picked up a nice win at New Mexico (Albuquerque is a tough place to pay), by 16 points, as they shot a blistering 64% from the field. Leading scorer Allonzo Trier was right near his average w/ 22 pts and making his first start of the season, Rawle Alkins scored a career-high 26 pts. Alkins being back from injury is huge as it coincides w/ a time where the team's overall depth is hurting due to injuries to a pair of reserves. Against a more formidable opponent, I might be concerned about that. But not here. North Dakota State has won B2B games, but this is massive jump up in class from last week when they beat Valley City State (non-board team) 101-58. The Bison did play another Pac 12 team (USC) tough earlier in the year, losing by only 10. But they simply lack the firepower to compete here as they're averaging only 64.2 PPG on the road, which is a far cry from the 94.8 PPG Arizona averages at home. NDSU had its own three-game losing streak shortly after Thanksgiving and it included a 34-pt loss at Mississippi State. The Wildcats will - easily - be the toughest team the Bison face all year and I just don't think they're up for the challenge. Over the L3 seasons, the team is only 9-22 ATS in road games and 6-16 ATS as a dog. 10* Arizona |
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12-18-17 | Falcons -6.5 v. Bucs | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (8:30 ET): It seems as if no one wants any part of the Buccaneers this week on Monday Night Football, and I can't really blame them. TB was a prime candidate to regress in 2017 and regress they have falling from 9 to (right now) 4 wins. Last year's squad led the league in net upsets (+6) and it's important to recall was only favored in THREE games. This year, they've been favored six times and fared okay (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS), but the underdog role has been quite unkind as they're 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS. This line does seem inflated, but it's a virtual "must win" for the Dirty Birds, who already got a couple gifts yday w/ Seattle and Dallas both losing. The first meeting between these NFC South rivals took place just three weeks ago and saw the Falcons win by two touchdowns. Not enough has changed since then to make me think this one will go any differently. Lay the points. Furthermore, Atlanta has had extra time to prepare here as they last played two Thursdays ago when they picked up a huge win, beating New Orleans 20-17 as 2.5-pt home favorites (that line was quite volitaile throught the week). I, fortunately, was on the Falcons that game as they moved to 8-5 SU and maintained control of their playoff destiny. New Orleans and Carolina both won yday, but if Atlanta wins out, then they will repeat as NFC South Champs as they play those two teams the final two weeks. After some midseason struggles, Matt Ryan and company have won four of their last five and the defense has allowed 20 pts or less four times. Tampa has lost three straight and last week fell "at the gun" (last second FG) at home to Detroit. That result all but ended their season and it's fair to question how motivated the home dog will be here. Aside from a 30-20 win over Miami on 11.19, the Bucs have failed top 21 pts in any of the last seven games. They are averaging only 17.8 PPG at home this year. Even worse, on the defensive end, stud DT Gerald McCoy is out w/ a biceps injury. He led the team in sacks w/ five and the rest of the defense has just 12 on the year. (They rank last overall in sacks). TB's defense had no answers for Julio Jones in that first meeting, allowing him 12 catches for 253 yards. Atlanta's defense just held NO to 306 total yds, including only 50 on the ground. 8* Atlanta |
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12-18-17 | 76ers -1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 115-117 | Loss | -123 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Somebody break up the Bulls! What was once a "slam dunk" choice for being "worst team in the league," has all of a sudden won five straight (covered six in a row!) and beaten some good teams along the way (Boston, Utah, Milwaukee). Tonight's opponent certainly won't be the toughest they've faced during this "mini-renaissance," but considering Chicago won't go on winning forever, it's an opportune time to fade them. Plus, the spread is basically a non-factor. The 76ers have been trending in the wrong direction the last couple of weeks, going 1-5 SU and ATS their last six games, but this is a good "get well" spot after suffering some close losses, including that 3 OT affair vs. OKC Friday night. I anticipate the Sixers battling for one of the final playoff spots in the East the remainder of the year. Remember, it may not even require a .500 SU record to make the postseason in the Eastern Conference. The team started out quite well this year, getting as high as four games above .500. But right now it's fair to call them "average" as they are allowing the same number of points per 100 possessions that they are scoring. Joel Embiid will NOT play here, nor will Trevor Booker, but I still like the Sixers in the spot nevertheless. Remember, they already hold victories over both Golden State and Cleveland. While they haven't fared well off a SU loss as a favorite this season (0-5 ATS!), I suspect that will change here. Chicago's brief resurgence has been led by Nikola Mirotic, who apparently has not been "clued in" to the franchise's plan for tanking. Mirotic has averaged 25 points the L3 games, which have seen the Bulls beat the Celtics, Jazz and Bucks. Each team he has guaranteed victory. He's done so again for tonight, but this "gimmick" can only go on for so long. Before winning their last five games, the Bulls had lost 10 in a row, remember. They are still dead last in the league in offensive efficiency and are being outscored by 8.8 pts per 100 possessions. This spread should be bigger. 10* Philadelphia |
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12-17-17 | Cowboys v. Raiders +3 | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 101 h 33 m | Show |
10* Oakland (8:30 ET): When this game was initially announced as a nationally televised affair, clearly, the schedule-makers had in mind that more would be at stake. But both Dallas and Oakland have essentially been confined to "also-ran" status at this juncture of the season. The Cowboys have been victimized by the Ezekiel Elliott suspension, not to mention some key injuries on both sides of the ball. The Raiders have fallen prey to some good old regression, which I warned their faithful was likely to take hold after a 2016 that saw them go 12-4 SU despite only outscoring opponents by 31 pts. Coming into Sunday night, "America's Team" has posted B2B victories, but within their own division against two inferior foes. I don't agree w/ how this line has moved (early in the week) - at all - and will be taking the points w/ the Silver and Black. |
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12-17-17 | Cavs -1.5 v. Wizards | Top | 106-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (6:05 ET): The last three games, all SU wins, have nevertheless seen the Cavs fail to cover the spread. However, with one more made basket in each game, or just one more point in the case of the last two, they would be 3-0 ATS! Overall, they're just 2-7 ATS their L9, but all Cleveland fans will want to talk about is the fact the team has lost just ONCE since November 10th, going 17-1 SU in the process. Tonight, a SU win would almost certainly equate to an ATS win as the Cavs are very short road favorites over a Wizards team that has failed to cover four in a row themselves. I know this is the second game of a back to back for Cleveland, but I like them to win big here. The Cavs still need to improve pretty dramatically on the defensive end for me to buy them as a legit NBA Title contender. Granted, they could still easily win the East, but a 27th place ranking in defensive efficiency won't treat you so well when faced w/ the Warriors or Rockets in a potential NBA Finals matchup. However, those are the only teams that currently rank above Cleveland on the offensive end as last night saw the Cavs shoot better than 50% for a third straight game and they beat a short-handed Utah squad, 109-100. LeBron James is having a great year, even by his standards, and just turned his 60th career triple double last night (third in the last four games!). The team has made at least 10 three-pointers in 19 consecutive games. Tristan Thompson (their best rebounder) is also back in the lineup after missing 19 games. While the Cavs continue to lean on LeBron, Washington just got back its main superstar, John Wall. In his second game back from injury, Wall scored 15 in a 100-91 win over the Clippers on Thursday. Washington would seem to have the edge here, with Wall back and having had two days off. But Cleveland has won its last three trips to D.C. and that includes one earlier this year where LeBron scored 57 points. The Cavs have been money-burners as favorites (5-0 ATS a dog!), but this is a number we can work with tonight. The Wizards are just 4-9 ATS on their home floor this season. 10* Cleveland |
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12-17-17 | North Carolina -1 v. Tennessee | Top | 78-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
8* North Carolina (3:00 ET): We have a Top 25 matchup Sunday afternoon in Knoxville w/ Tennessee hosting UNC. However, while the Tar Heels are probably deserving of their current #7 ranking (that's where I have them), I'm not sure I can say the same for the Vols, who to me, are a fringe Top 25 team at best. Now, it's not as if I think Roy Williams' team should be a prohibitive favorite in this spot; it's just that I believe in them winning here. Therefore, with that line of thinking, how could I resist taking them? North Carolina certainly comes into this game well-rested. They've been off since December 6th when they drubbed Western Carolina, 104-61 as 32.5-pt favorites. It was their fourth straight win, all of them coming by double digits. The Tar Heels' only loss this year was to Michigan State (at a neutral setting) where they shot an abysmal 24.6% from the floor. Despite that game, they still come in averaging an impressive 88.1 PPG, which is 15th most in the country. UNC is one of only seven teams in the country to rank in the Top 20 in offensive/defensive efficiency at KenPom. They're one of only four to rank in the Top 15 in both categories (11/14), joining the likes of Villanova, Mich State and Purdue. They have played one "true" road game previously this season and it was a rout (24 pts) of Stanford. Tennessee also has just one loss and it also came to a team currently ranked in the Top 2, in their case being #1 Villanova. That took place back on November 23rd (three days prior to UNC's only loss) and like the Tar Heels, the Vols have bounced back w/ four consecutive wins. However, three of the four wins were by 10 pts or less, including the last one (against Lipscomb). That game was played last Saturday, so Tennessee isn't quite as well-rested as their counterparts are here. Much will be made of the fact the Vols have won five straight times here in Knoxville when hosting the defending National Champion (no matter who it is). Also, HC Williams is just 4-7 SU in "true" road games if the opponent is ranked. But this is the first time UT is hosting a Top 25 opponent when ranked themselves in seven years. I think the spotlight will be "too bright" for them. 8* North Carolina |
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Bryan Power ALL Sports Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-20-18 | Oklahoma -4 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 81-83 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
01-20-18 | St. John's v. Georgetown -1.5 | Top | 89-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
01-19-18 | Heat v. Nets +3 | Top | 95-101 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
01-18-18 | Michigan -3.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 52-72 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
01-17-18 | Seton Hall +5 v. Creighton | Top | 63-80 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
01-17-18 | Pelicans -2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 93-94 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
01-17-18 | Tulsa v. Temple -6.5 | Top | 58-59 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
01-16-18 | Drake v. Northern Iowa -5.5 | Top | 54-68 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
01-16-18 | Pelicans v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
01-15-18 | Florida State -2.5 v. Boston College | Top | 75-81 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 56 m | Show |
01-15-18 | Maryland +7 v. Michigan | Top | 67-68 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
01-15-18 | Bucks v. Wizards -4.5 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
01-14-18 | St. Joe's v. Massachusetts -1.5 | Top | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 113 h 57 m | Show |
01-14-18 | Bucks +2 v. Heat | Top | 79-97 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
01-13-18 | Titans +14 v. Patriots | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 7 m | Show |
01-13-18 | Nets +9.5 v. Wizards | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles +3 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 92 h 17 m | Show |
01-13-18 | Oregon +9 v. Arizona | Top | 83-90 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
01-13-18 | Syracuse v. Florida State -5.5 | Top | 90-101 | Win | 100 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
01-12-18 | Grizzlies +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 78-87 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
01-12-18 | Nebraska +7 v. Penn State | Top | 74-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
01-11-18 | Oregon +8 v. Arizona State | Top | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
01-11-18 | Clippers v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 121-115 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
01-10-18 | Colorado v. USC -11 | Top | 58-70 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
01-10-18 | Thunder +4 v. Wolves | Top | 88-104 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
01-09-18 | Georgetown +6.5 v. St. John's | Top | 69-66 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
01-08-18 | Alabama -4 v. Georgia | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -105 | 149 h 60 m | Show |
01-08-18 | Cavs -1 v. Wolves | Top | 99-127 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
01-07-18 | Hawks v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
01-07-18 | Iowa +8.5 v. Maryland | Top | 73-91 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
01-07-18 | Panthers +6.5 v. Saints | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 121 h 20 m | Show |
01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars -8 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -103 | 118 h 45 m | Show |
01-06-18 | Celtics -5 v. Nets | Top | 87-85 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
01-06-18 | North Carolina +5 v. Virginia | Top | 49-61 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
01-05-18 | Wizards v. Grizzlies +5 | Top | 102-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
01-05-18 | Bulls v. Mavs -4.5 | Top | 127-124 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
01-05-18 | Elon v. Northeastern -5.5 | Top | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
01-04-18 | Houston v. Wichita State -8.5 | Top | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
01-04-18 | Lightning v. Canadiens +1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
01-04-18 | Texas-San Antonio v. Louisiana Tech -7.5 | Top | 78-76 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
01-03-18 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Jazz | Top | 108-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
01-03-18 | Oklahoma State +10 v. Oklahoma | Top | 89-109 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
01-02-18 | Hornets -3.5 v. Kings | Top | 131-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
01-02-18 | Hawks v. Suns -1 | Top | 103-104 | Push | 0 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
01-02-18 | Towson -2 v. Elon | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
01-01-18 | Georgia v. Oklahoma +3 | Top | 54-48 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 41 m | Show |
01-01-18 | West Virginia -2 v. Kansas State | Top | 77-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
01-01-18 | Sabres +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
01-01-18 | Central Florida +11 v. Auburn | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 40 h 11 m | Show |
12-31-17 | Wolves -2 v. Pacers | Top | 107-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
12-31-17 | Jaguars +6 v. Titans | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 116 h 59 m | Show |
12-31-17 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 59 m | Show |
12-31-17 | Missouri State v. Valparaiso -1 | Top | 67-50 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
12-31-17 | Redskins v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 10-18 | Win | 100 | 113 h 48 m | Show |
12-30-17 | Wisconsin -4.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
12-30-17 | Cavs -3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 101-104 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
12-30-17 | Davidson -5.5 v. Richmond | Top | 58-69 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
12-30-17 | Washington +3 v. Penn State | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -125 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
12-30-17 | Iowa State v. Memphis -4 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
12-29-17 | Washington +11 v. USC | Top | 88-81 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
12-29-17 | Nets v. Heat -6.5 | Top | 111-87 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
12-29-17 | Kentucky v. Northwestern -7 | Top | 23-24 | Loss | -115 | 533 h 32 m | Show |
12-29-17 | Texas A&M +3 v. Wake Forest | Top | 52-55 | Push | 0 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
12-28-17 | 76ers v. Blazers -3 | Top | 110-114 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
12-28-17 | Michigan State v. Washington State +1.5 | Top | 42-17 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
12-28-17 | Detroit +4 v. Green Bay | Top | 83-95 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
12-28-17 | Virginia Tech v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
12-27-17 | Raptors v. Thunder -4 | Top | 107-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
12-27-17 | CS Bakersfield v. Arkansas -21.5 | Top | 68-95 | Win | 100 | 29 h 59 m | Show |
12-27-17 | Boston College v. Iowa -2.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 35 m | Show |
12-27-17 | Southern Miss v. Florida State -16.5 | Top | 13-42 | Win | 100 | 23 h 51 m | Show |
12-26-17 | Kansas State v. UCLA +7 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -130 | 34 h 35 m | Show |
12-26-17 | Utah v. West Virginia +7 | Top | 30-14 | Loss | -113 | 26 h 16 m | Show |
12-25-17 | Wolves v. Lakers +3.5 | Top | 121-104 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 39 m | Show |
12-24-17 | Houston v. Fresno State +2 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 32 h 48 m | Show |
12-24-17 | Giants +4 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-23 | Loss | -115 | 125 h 38 m | Show |
12-24-17 | Seahawks +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-12 | Win | 100 | 125 h 38 m | Show |
12-24-17 | Dolphins +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-29 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 14 m | Show |
12-24-17 | Chargers v. Jets +7.5 | Top | 14-7 | Win | 100 | 121 h 14 m | Show |
12-23-17 | Appalachian State v. Toledo -7 | Top | 34-0 | Loss | -100 | 74 h 47 m | Show |
12-23-17 | Ohio State v. North Carolina -6.5 | Top | 72-86 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
12-23-17 | Tennessee -1 v. Wake Forest | Top | 79-60 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
12-23-17 | Texas Tech v. South Florida -2.5 | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 67 h 48 m | Show |
12-23-17 | Harvard +4.5 v. George Washington | Top | 48-58 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
12-22-17 | Hornets +5 v. Bucks | Top | 104-109 | Push | 0 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
12-22-17 | UAB +7.5 v. Ohio | Top | 6-41 | Loss | -130 | 48 h 5 m | Show |
12-21-17 | Gonzaga -3.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 48 m | Show |
12-21-17 | Grizzlies v. Suns +1.5 | Top | 95-97 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
12-20-17 | Lakers +14 v. Rockets | Top | 122-116 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
12-20-17 | Louisiana Tech +5 v. SMU | Top | 51-10 | Win | 100 | 57 h 34 m | Show |
12-20-17 | North Texas v. Georgetown -9.5 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
12-19-17 | Auburn -4 v. Murray State | Top | 81-77 | Push | 0 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
12-19-17 | Akron +23 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 3-50 | Loss | -115 | 295 h 52 m | Show |
12-18-17 | North Dakota State v. Arizona -22 | Top | 53-83 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
12-18-17 | Falcons -6.5 v. Bucs | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
12-18-17 | 76ers -1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 115-117 | Loss | -123 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
12-17-17 | Cowboys v. Raiders +3 | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 101 h 33 m | Show |
12-17-17 | Cavs -1.5 v. Wizards | Top | 106-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
12-17-17 | North Carolina -1 v. Tennessee | Top | 78-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |