Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-04-20 | Virginia Tech +7 v. Virginia | Top | 39-65 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
8* Virginia Tech (2:00 ET): How appropriate I would be stepping out for this rivalry game! The annual battle for the Commonwealth Cup was my 10* Game of the Year in College Football and I had Virginia has they ended a frustrating 15-year losing streak to Va Tech with an outright upset. On the basketball court, however, the in-state rivalry has been owned by the Hoos. True to form, I'll be backing the underdog in this one as I feel Virginia is living off its reputation from the last several years. This team is nowhere near as good as it was the last two years. Take the points. One year after suffering the humiliation of being the first #1 seed to ever lose to a #16 in the NCAA Tournament, Virginia bounced back to win the National Championship. This is a program that we've been consistently high on throughout Tony Bennett's tenure. Once again, the Cavaliers are leading the country in points allowed (47.3 per game). But they are pretty bad offensively, ranking an ugly 178th in efficiency. Honestly, even at 10-2 SU, I'm not sure they deserved to be ranked in the top 25. The Cavs have yet to score more than 65 in a game this season, so they're not a team I'd be confident betting as a favorite - even with that defense. Sure enough, they are 3-8 ATS in that role so far this season. After covering the first two games of the season, UVA is just 1-9 ATS its L10 overall. Virginia Tech is 10-3 SU and comes in riding a four-game win streak. While they've played just one "true" road game so far (won it, at Clemson), you can't say the Hokies aren't battle tested. They beat Michigan State in Maui (71-66 as 13-point dogs) and have also faced Duke. Since losing to the Blue Devils, Va Tech has given up an average of just 49 PPG in its 4-game win streak. In what figures to be a low-scoring game, grabbing the points seems like the right move. Plus, Va Tech is the much better three-point shooting team here. 8* Virginia Tech |
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01-03-20 | Ohio -7.5 v. Nevada | Top | 30-21 | Win | 100 | 48 h 13 m | Show |
10* Ohio (3:30 ET): Of the 78 FBS teams that made it into a bowl game, we have Nevada rated as the worst. The Wolf Pack went 7-5 SU in what was a "down year" in the Mountain West Conference and had only two wins by more the seven points. Those two wins were against UTEP and New Mexico, who combined for a 3-21 SU record. Two stunning upsets - over Purdue and San Diego State (both coming as 17-pt dogs) - are what got them to Idaho for the Famous Potato Bowl. Ohio had a disappointing regular season as many, myself included, figured this was the year they'd finally win a MAC Championship for HC Frank Solich (15th season in Athens). But the Bobcats still are w/o a MAC Championship going all the way back to 1968. The reason for that is tey underachieved this year, losing four different times as a favorite. But even though neither played in the Conference Championship Game, we still consider OU right next to Western Michigan as the best teams the MAC had to offer this year. The Bobcats offense averaged nearly 35 PPG and is led by QB Nathan Rourke, who threw for 2,676 yards w/ a 20-5 TD-INT ratio. Adding to the list of Nevada issues is that five players have been suspended for this game. Four of them are defensive starters. Three are among the top six tacklers on an already suspect defense (32.1 PPG allowed). Three of the four suspended defensive starters won't play at all, the fourth will miss only the 1st half. The reason for the suspensions was a fight w/ UNLV at the end of the regular season finale. The Wolf Pack were outscored by nearly 11 PPG this year, a stunning margin for a bowl team. Basically the entire defensive coaching staff was let go after the loss to the UNLV. While this number has already moved some, that's okay as we have Ohio as almost a two-touchdown favorite for this one! 10* Ohio |
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01-02-20 | Montana v. Southern Utah -3.5 | Top | 60-58 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
10* Southern Utah (9:00 ET): We head out to Big Sky country for this one and I think Southern Utah is ready to snap its losing streak to Montana. Since joining the Big Sky Conference, Southern Utah has NEVER beaten Montana, losing all 12 head to head matchups. They haven't had much luck at the betting window in those games either, failing to cover seven in a row (all double digit losses). Yet it speaks volumes that the Thunderbirds come in as the favorites this time around (never happened before) and deservedly so. Lay the short number. Another streak on the line here is Montana's six-game conference win streak. They haven't lost a Big Sky game since March 7th of last year when they were upset by Portland State. But this year's Golden Grizzlies simply aren't as good as past editions. Though they've opened 2-0 SU in conference play, those wins were at home and close. They are 0-6 SU on the road so far, scoring only 59.5 PPG. They are also just 1-5 ATS as underdogs, losing all six games outright. They are just 3-15 SU their L18 times as a dog. Southern Utah is the better team here. The Thunderbirds rank 2nd in the Big Sky in offensive rebound rate. They have also won four in a row here in Cedar City where they are averaging 92.8 PPG. The key here is to get to 73 points, very doable, as Montana has yet to win a game when allowing that many. The Golden Grizzlies have three players who have accounted for 81% of all points the L5 games. That's not a lot of balance. This is SUU's "time to shine." 10* Southern Utah. |
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01-02-20 | Raptors +6 v. Heat | Top | 76-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:35 ET): Oddsmakers seem to be doubting the Raptors in this matchup of top Eastern Conference teams. The defending NBA Champs have certainly proven that they are still going to be a force despite losing Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard. I know they've been dogged by injuries more than just about any team besides Golden State (oh, the irony!) but even w/o Pascal Siakam the Raptors were able to go to Boston recently and win by 16. I'll take the points in this revenge spot. Miami had a five-game winning streak going into their final contest of 2019. But four of those five wins had been by four points or less, including three straight by a total of five pts. Those close calls caught up with them in Washington where they suffered a shocking outright loss as 14-point favorites to a severely undermanned Wizards team. Thus, the Heat have now failed to cover four in a row. While they are 15-1 SU at home, I don't buy that they should be laying more than three points to this particular opponent. As alluded to above, this is a revenge game for the Raptors. Almost exactly one month ago, they lost at home to the Heat 121-110 as 5.5-point favorites. That was Kyle Lowry's first game back from his injury and he shot terribly, missing all 11 three-point attempts in addition to his first 11 shots overall. That won't happen again. The Raptors swept the season series from the Heat last year. While Miami is coming off a terrible defensive effort (gave up a 42-point quarter), Toronto has held three straight opponents below 100 points. That makes them attractive as the underdog. 8* Toronto |
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01-02-20 | Tennessee v. Indiana +2.5 | Top | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:00 ET): Indiana has not won a bowl game since the '91 Copper. Granted, they've been to only four since, but this program is dying for something resembling a "marquee" victory. Beating Tennessee in the Gator Bowl would certainly qualify. The Hoosiers have perennially struggled to beat the top teams they face as is evident by a shocking 1-16 SU record as an underdog under HC Tom Allen (third year here). But A LOT of those games have been close. My own power rankings say IU should be the favorite here, so I'll take them with the added value. Things were not looking good for Tennessee after a 1-4 SU start that included a home loss to Georgia State. But credit HC Jeremy Pruitt for turning things around in Knoxville as the Vols finished on a 6-1 SU run w/ the lone loss coming to Alabama. But as far as SEC schedules go, the one UT made its run against was pretty easy. It has only two wins over bowl teams, those being Kentucky (by 4) and Mississippi State (by 10). They lost to Florida, Georgia and Bama by an average of nearly four touchdowns per game. I'm really not sure why the Volunteers were bet to the role of favorite here. Admittedly, you could say some of the same things about Indiana as they didn't beat a single bowl team and all of its losses were to teams ranked at the time. But I come back to the Hoosiers wanting that elusive bowl win. In the two years before Allen's arrival, they were close, losing by three in overtime to Duke (Pinstripe) then by two to Utah (Foster Farms). The latter was actually Allen's first game as HC (was interim). I'm trusting my own numbers and for the Hoosiers to be the more motivated side here. 10* Indiana |
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01-02-20 | James Madison v. NC-Wilmington +3.5 | Top | 64-60 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
8* UNC Wilmington (6:30 ET): A pretty ugly matchup to ring in the New Year with, out of the Colonial. Both teams are already 0-2 in conference play. James Madison started by losing two straight at home, to Hofstra by six and to Northeastern by 16. UNC Wilmington's two CAA defeats both came on the road as they lost by 14 at Delaware and by five at Drexel. Overall, the Seahawks have now lost seven in a row. But it isn't often JMU is favored, especially on the road. I'll take the points. UNC Wilmington did recently have team assist leader Kai Toews bolt the program. That was right before conference play began. I know he ws the starting point guard. But considering the Seahawks had lost five in a row with Toews on the floor, I don't think he'll be all that missed. Look for UNCW to get back to scoring more in this game as James Madison is allowing 76.5 PPG. I know little has gone right for this team so far, but this is a rare time the Seahawks should feel confident that they can win. These teams also have a history of close games. Three of the last four meetings were decided by three points or less. The road team won both times last season, but JMU has yet to be a road favorite at all this season. In fact, the Dukes have been favored in only five games total. Their defensive issues are pretty glaring as five of their last seven opponents have gone for at least 82 points. JMU also is only shooting 36.9% away from home. 8* UNC Wilmington |
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01-01-20 | Utah State -7 v. UNLV | Top | 53-70 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
8* Utah State (11:00 ET): So a big key here is that Aggies' leading scorer Sam Merrill has been upgraded to probable. The last game Merrill played saw Utah State upset Florida down in Miami, 65-62, led by his 21 points. But even without him, Utah State was able to put 129 points on the board Saturday, albeit against Eastern Oregon. This remains a very underrated team, one that's going to compete with still undefeated San Diego State for Mountain West Conference supremacy. Even if Merrill doesn't play tonight, we'll still lay the short number tonight in Vegas. UNLV is only 6-8 SU and that's after winning their last two games. Both were here at home as they rolled to double digit victories against Eastern Michigan and Robert Morris. But Utah State is a team that the Rebels have struggled to deal with the last couple seasons. It's an 0-3 SU/ATS record the L3 meetings and it's tough to see this one going any better. The Rebels are 2-7 ATS this season vs. teams with winning records and they're going to struggle to score here vs. a team that allows a FG% of just 38.2 on the year. Offensively, USU is 18th in the country at 81.8 PPG. The last game, where they blitzed a NAIA school, obviously helped to inflate that scoring average. But they had plenty of big scoring nights prior to that and remember they were without Merrill vs. Eastern Oregon. I seem to be a bit higher on the Aggies than the marketplace is. Perhaps the reason we're getting such a good number on USU is because prior to them upsetting Florida, they'd failed to cover six in a row. But whatever the reason for the short spread, I'm laying it. 8* Utah State |
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01-01-20 | Baylor v. Georgia -4 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
10* Georgia (8:45 ET): A stunning number of Georgia players (13!) will be sitting out here in order to avoid injury. As a result, the 5th ranked team in the country has been bet down considerably for this Sugar Bowl matchup w/ Baylor on New Year's Day. Almost all the players that are sitting out can be counted among the two-deep on the roster and six are starters. But it sure seems as if people are "forgetting" how good the Bulldogs were this year. Those who do suit up are going to be motivated and with the number being bet down so much, I'm willing to lay it! Georgia has one of the best defenses in the country. Sure, they gave up 37 points to LSU in the SEC Championship Game. But given how the top-ranked Tigers looked against Oklahoma in the CFP Semifinal Saturday, that's really not all that bad. It was actually 12 pts below LSU's season average and one of only three times the Tigers were held below 40 pts in the regular season. I know Baylor HC Matt Rhule has an incredible ATS record when getting points (34-14 all-time). But even with QB Charlie Brewer back under center (suffered concussion in Big 12 Champ Game), I believe the Bears are going to struggle to score here. Those Georgia players that do take the field New Year's Night will be motivated. Not just because everyone is seemingly "writing them off," but also because of what happened in this game last year. The Bulldogs were 12-point favorites against Texas, came in and gave an uninspired effort and lost outright 28-21. I had the Under on that game, which was also a double-digit winner. I don't see history repeating itself w/ UGA laying an egg in B2B Sugar Bowls. This is great value as Baylor overachieved this year, winning four games by less than three points or in overtime. 10* Georgia |
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12-31-19 | Temple -2 v. UCF | Top | 62-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
8* Temple (2:00 ET): Under 1st year HC Aaron McKie, Temple has started 8-3. The Owls just beat a Rider team that had previously won five in a row and did so fairly convincingly, winning 77-68 as a 9-point favorite. That was a nice bounce back for McKie's team, which had just lost to Miami FL by one point (78-77) four days earlier. Something notable about this group is that it ranks #24 in the country in defensive efficiency as its opponents are shooting only 36.2% for the year. UCF also suffered only three losses in non-conference play. Two of them were by just a single point, the most recent coming 10 days ago when they fell 53-52 at Oklahoma. The Knights are 9-3 SU overall and 5-1 ATS vs. teams with winning record. They were nine-point underdogs to the Sooners, so that was an easy cover despite them shooting just 31.3% from the field. Still, I don't feel UCF is in Temple's same class as they are really lacking in signature wins and aren't as strong at either end of the floor. Safe to say, oddsmakers made a mistake not opening Temple as a larger favorite. Even though UCF has suffered just one loss by more than one point, look for them to struggle to score against the strong Temple defense today. The Owls already have "true" road wins over LaSalle, USC and Texas A&M and can also say they hung tough on a neutral court vs. Maryland. McKie inherited a pretty experienced team and we saw what they were capable of in that 27-point beatdown of St. Joe's earlier this month. 8* Temple |
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12-30-19 | Seton Hall -1 v. DePaul | Top | 74-66 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
10* Seton Hall (8:30 ET): DePaul has lost only one game this year, but they're a team I don't put much stock in. Now that Big East play is about to begin, expect the Blue Demons' 12-1 SU record to take a major hit. I count at least seven teams in the conference that I rate higher than DePaul right now. One of them is Seton Hall, who comes to Chicago tonight. The Pirates have been without their best player, Myles Powell (21.2 PPG), due to a concussion. But there seems to be some positive news on that situation as Powell could play tonight. Whether or not he does, take the Pirates. Seton Hall has already proven that they can win without Powell as they went to Maryland and handed the Terps their first loss of the year. I think it speaks volumes that Seton Hall isn't an underdog here, even with Powell's uncertain status. With Powell, they are a top 25 team in my view. After the upset of Maryland, things did get a bit "dicey" for a half against Prairie View A&M last week. But they wound up shooting 57.6% in the second half and still won by 20 points. The official report on Powell is that he "definitely" will be back for the Georgetown game on Friday. He has practiced the L2 days. Again, with or without him, Seton Hall is the call here. DePaul has had plenty of close wins this season, the most recent coming against Northwestern nine days ago. But they've failed to cover three of the last four games including their only SU, which was here at home to Buffalo. Seton Hall has double revenge here for a pair of losses LY that were by a combined five points. They were favored in both games. Seton Hall shows who's best! 10* Seton Hall |
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12-30-19 | Western Michigan +3.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
8* Western Michigan (12:30 ET): If Western Michigan doesn't show up motivated for the First Responder Bowl on Monday afternoon (in Dallas), then I don't know what to say. They lost the regular season finale (as a 10-point favorite) at Northern Illinois, which cost them a chance to play for the MAC Championship. The Broncos were probably the best team in the MAC this year. They beat both teams that ended up in the Championship Game - Miami by 22 and Central Michigan by 16. They have both the Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year from the conference. Western Kentucky went 3-9 SU last year. So not many people were expecting a bowl appearance in Tyson Helton's first season in Bowling Green. But the Hilltoppers improved all the way to 8-4 SU on the back of pulling five outright upsets, one of them 45-19 over Arkansas, which was ironic because that's where QB Ty Storey transfered from. I am surprised that WKU is favored here. They were a favorite just four times in the regular season, none of those against bowl teams (one was a FCS team). They faced only four bowl teams all year and went 2-2 SU in those games (beat Southern Miss & UAB). Another motivating factor for Western Michigan here is their 1-8 SU record in bowls. They got embarrassed out in Idaho LY by BYU 47-18. I realize that the Broncos had just one win outside Kalamazoo this year, but I believe they are the better team here. Thus, getting points, I'm on board. They were an underdog in only four games in the regular season and the only one where they were getting more than 3.5 points was against Michigan State. Western Kentucky is just 4-12-1 ATS its L17 games as a favorite w/ eight outright losses. Take the points. 8* Western Michigan |
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12-29-19 | Falcons v. Bucs | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): HC Dan Quinn has improbably saved his job in Atlanta thanks to a 5-2 run down the stretch. (GM Thomas Dimitroff will be returning as well). While the decision by Falcons' owner Arthur Blank had to be a nice "late Christmas gift" for the Quinn and Dimitroff families, I think it saps a lot of the supposed motivation we were supposed to see from this team in Week 17. Before the decision was made on Saturday, I was reading a lot of Falcons backers that felt the motivation to preserve their coach's job would carry the team here. Remember that one of Atlanta's two losses in these last seven games came to the team they facing in Week 17, that being Tampa Bay. The Bucs (7-8) have a better record than the Falcons (6-9) and looked every bit the better team back in Week 12 when they won 35-22 as a three-point underdog. For us, the Bucs were a signature *10* Ultimate Power release that day. The score was even a bit misleading as Tampa Bay missed THREE extra points and Atlanta scored a TD in garbage time. While Atlanta seems to be getting a lot of credit for how its played in the second half of the season, the Bucs are the better team and have also improved during the same timeframe. Really, they should have a better record than 7-8 SU as they've outgained and outscored their opponents this season. Last week was a classic "false final" as they outgained the Texans by over 200 yds, but lost by a field goal thanks to FOUR James Winston interceptions (one returned for a TD). While Winston's 28 INT's lead the league, he also has 31 TD passes and leads the league in passing yards. Despite missing both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin last week, he still threw for 335 yards, so the absences hardly hurt the offense. My numbers suggest TB should be laying almost a touchdown here. 10* Tampa Bay |
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12-29-19 | Browns v. Bengals +3 | Top | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): Backing the team with the worst record in the league may not sound good on paper, but Cincinnati is "free and clear" here having already sewn up the #1 pick in next spring's Draft. Were they in a position where a win might hurt them (i.e. draft position), the tendency would be to lay off. But expect the Bengals to come out motivated for Week 17 against division rival Cleveland in what looks like a very winnable game. Meanwhile, the underachieving Browns may very well mail this one in. Take the points. Cincinnati almost won last week, but came up just short in overtime, losing at Miami 38-35. They had an improbable rally just to get to OT, scoring two touchdowns and two 2-pt conversions in the final 30 seconds to tie the game. QB Andy Dalton is still auditioning to be a starting QB for next year (likely somewhere else), so he won't be phoning it in here. Despite coming at 1-14 SU, the Bengals are better than you think as last week was their 8th loss by one score. Back in Week 14, they outgained the Browns by 118 yards (451-333) w/ a 27-17 edge in first downs, but lost 27-19 as Cleveland had an early pick-six. The Browns have been miserable as a favorite this year, a reflection of their disappointing season. They've lost four of the nine games in which they've been favored. Three of those four losses have been on the road. Two of those have been to backup quarterbacks and the other was by two scores at Arizona two weeks ago. Freddie Kitchens is in way over his head as a NFL head coach and was yet another poor hire by the Browns. 8* Cincinnati |
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12-29-19 | Saints v. Panthers +14 | Top | 42-10 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
8* Carolina (1:00 ET): New Orleans appears to be "peaking" at the right time as they've won five of their last six games to get to 12-3 SU. They still have a chance to earn a first round bye. In addition to obviously needing to win themselves, they would need either a loss by the Packers (unlikely) or by the 49ers. If both the 49ers and Packers were to lose, then the Saints could even move up to the #1 seed in the NFC. But because of these playoff scenarios, this line is inflated. I'm taking the points. The Panthers' season has gone off the rails as they fired Ron Rivera (foolish) a few weeks back. That came after four straight losses and the streak has now hit seven under interim HC Perry Fewell. Last week was a horrific showing in Indianapolis as they lost 38-6 by giving up two special teams touchdowns. They were also -3 in turnovers. This is a different team than the one that should have beaten the Saints in New Orleans back in Week 12 (lost 34-31). Will Grier is now starting at QB as opposed to Kyle Allen. But still, this number is way too large. Interestingly enough, the Saints have lost outright as a division favorite of -6 or more each of the last two years in Week 17. Both losses came with them having clinched a playoff berth. Ironically, last year's loss was to a Carolina team that came in on a seven-game losing streak. While it may seem like the Saints are peaking now, they did trail Tennessee on the road 14-0 last week. Just too many points to lay in a NFL road game. 8* Carolina |
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12-28-19 | Clemson v. Ohio State +2.5 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 3 m | Show |
10* Ohio State (8:00 ET): One bad first half (Big 10 Champ Game vs. Wisconsin) and it seems as if everyone is flocking to get off the Ohio State bandwagon. That has me scratching my head as the Buckeyes were the best team in the country during the regular season, covering the spread by an average of 11.8 PPG, the highest mark of any team. I did NOT agree with the Buckeyes being moved down from #1 to #2 in the final CFP Rankings and think they now offer a tremendous value as an underdog (1st time all season) going for revenge against the team that embarrassed them in their last CFP appearance. Take the points. Now Clemson is not without its own merits. They are the defending National Champions and come in with the best ATS record in the country at 10-3 (covered 4 in a row). But it's difficult (for me) to look past the massive difference in strength of schedule that exists between them and Ohio State. The ACC was easily the weakest of the Power 5 conferences this year as no other team finished inside the top 40 of my own personal power rankings! The only Top 40 team Clemson faced was Texas A&M and that was early in the year at home. While the Tigers appeared to peak down the stretch, they were going up against some really depleted and overmatched opponents. You can go ahead and throw out that 1H Ohio State played vs. Wisconsin. It was a really tough spot for the Buckeyes as they went into the game not even needing to win to make the playoff. The fact they still ended up winning by double digits is quite impressive. Nine of Ohio State's wins this year came against teams that are currently in my Top 40 and remember they won every game by double digits. Compare that to the one Top 40 win Clemson has. Once I saw the Buckeyes open as the underdog, I knew this had to be my top bowl selection. The only time they have been a dog since 2014 was LY's game vs. Michigan, which they ended up winning 62-39. The program has won outright the L7 times its been a dog! 10* Ohio State |
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12-28-19 | Nets +9.5 v. Rockets | Top | 98-108 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (8:05 ET): Both teams are off results they'd just as soon forget. The Rockets lost on X-Mas Day to the suddenly resurgent Warriors, 116-104, as an 11.5-point favorite. The following night saw the Nets lost at home to the sorry Knicks, 94-82 as seven-point chalk. Something will have to give here as both teams are perfect ATS on the year when coming off a DD loss. Brooklyn is 5-0 after losing by 10 or more while Houston is 3-0 vs. the number. I'm taking the points, even though the Nets remain short-handed. Kyrie Irving isn't even accompanying the team on this road trip and Caris LeVert is still out as well, even though he's reportedly "getting closer" to returning. Spencer Dinwiddie (who has been a godsend for this team amidst all the absences) said it best when he said it was a case of "too mugh egg nog" for the Nets Thursday night. They shot 26.9% from the field, which was the lowest FG% by any NBA team in almost seven years. Their eight two-point field goals were the fewest made in a game since 1950. Needless to say, the Nets are going to shoot a whole heck of a lot better tonight. Houston isn't any "great shakes" defensively as they are a mediocre 16th in efficiency. That's three spots lower than Brooklyn. Obviously, the Rockets offense is a concern for the Nets. But Houston, factoring out James Harden, was also victimized by poor shooting in the last game. They made only 37.0% against the Warriors w/ players not named "Harden" combining to miss 54 of 82 attempts. While the Rockets' shooting figures to improve just like the Nets, I just don't see them running away w/ this one, especially w/ a back to back in New Orleans looming tomorrow night. 10* Brooklyn |
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12-28-19 | CS-Northridge v. Boise State -8 | Top | 72-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
10* Boise State (6:00 ET): Cal State Northridge has made one of the more curious "turnarounds" over the last month or so. The Matadors are by no means a "good team." That can easily be confirmed by their poor 3-10 SU record. But they have been cashing tickets at the betting window recently. Since starting 0-4 ATS, they've come back to cover six of their last seven games and that doesn't even include an 85-50 blowout of San Francisco State (non-board team) earlier in the week. But I don't look for this ATS surge to continue. My own power rankings say tonight's line vs. Boise State is WAY off. Boise State is 8-2 ATS its last 10 games and is coming off a strong showing in Hawaii in the Diamond Head Classic over Christmas. After losing the first game (to Georgia Tech), the Broncos ended up finishing fifth in the tournament by beating UTEP and Portland. Maybe its because they just played three games in four days. But bettors aren't taking Boise State seriously enough in my opinion. This should be an easy double digit win for the home team. They are 5-1 SU in Boise, outscoring opponents by an impressive 24.5 PPG. CS-Northridge is 1-8 SU away from home and giving up 83.9 PPG in those contests. While the Matadors just got All-American Lamine Diane back from suspension, Boise State just added a transfer to its ranks as Abu Kigab debuted in Hawaii. Cal State Northridge has lost 52 of the last 59 times it has been an underdog. 10* Boise State |
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12-28-19 | Iowa State v. Notre Dame -3.5 | Top | 9-33 | Win | 100 | 97 h 40 m | Show |
8* Notre Dame (12:00 ET): I get the sense coming out of South Bend that the Fighting Irish faithful view the 2019 season, Brian Kelly's 10th leading the program, as a step back. I suppose that makes sense. Notre Dame was in the CFP last year, though that certainly didn't end well. But the Irish did go 10-2 SU this year. One of those losses was to Georgia and they covered the spread. The other was to Michigan, which was NOT a good performance, but that game was also played in a driving rainstorm. Since going down to the Wolverines, ND has won five in a row and is 4-1 ATS. Iowa State is looking to finish 8-5 SU for a third straight year under HC Matt Campbell. Four of their five losses this year were by a TD or less. They did spend a good part of the season in the Top 25, but also lost three of their last five games to fall out of the rankings. Ranked opponents were generally the ones that gave the Cyclones trouble as they lost 2 of 3 such games and that doesn't even include a loss to Baylor, who was not ranked at the time. The one win over a ranked opponent was Texas, who did not finish the year in the Top 25. Notre Dame is #15, which is where they should be. Interesting is that both of the Fighting Irish's losses came as dogs. They were a perfect 10-0 SU as favorites, covering the spread in all but three of those games. While ISU's record as a dog (14-4 ATS w/ six outright wins L3 yrs) must be respected, I believe this line should be closer to a touchdown than a field goal. Because they've struggled in bowls recently, I expect Notre Dame to come out motivated for this one. 8* Notre Dame |
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12-28-19 | Central Michigan +20 v. Purdue | Top | 62-97 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
8* Central Michigan (12:00 ET): I am absolutely on board with the notion that Purdue is better than its record. The KenPom ratings have the Boilermakers rated as the 13th best team in the country while I've got them at #22 in my own power ratings. This despite them already having five losses, the most recent coming exactly one week ago to Butler (on a neutral court). But they're also coming in way overvalued for today's tilt with Central Michigan. I'm taking the points. Central Michigan has the same 7-5 SU record as Purdue. Obviously, they have not faced the same level of competition. But they should have handed then-unbeaten DePaul its first loss back on November 26th as they led by double digits at halftime (on the road!) only to fail to even cover the DD spread! More recently, the Chippewas have lost three straight, all on the road. But after a 10-day break, I think they're ready to compete. Those L3 road games were all played within a 10-day span. Central Michigan can definitely score as they average 87.9 PPG, which is 3rd most in the entire country. Furthermore, they are top 10 in adjusted tempo, so they play fast. There have been a couple "clunkers" from the Chips (against Minnesota & Valpo) and Purdue is very good defensively. But I still see the underdog scoring enough to stay within what is a very generous number. Purdue is only 314th in the country in points per game and their 2nd leading scorer is dealing with a concussion. 8* Central Michigan |
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12-27-19 | 76ers v. Magic +3 | Top | 97-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): The Magic have already beaten the Sixers once this year and they were actually favored in that game. Now they're an underdog and catching Philadelphia at what looks to be a very opportune time. Philly just played one of its best games of the year as they blew out the Bucks on X-Mas Day. Can you say letdown? Take the points. The 121-109 win over Milwaukee was the Sixers' third consecutive win and cover. They are now 23-10 SU, which is the 4th best record in what is rapidly becoming a "top heavy" Eastern Conference. But while beating the Bucks was very impressive (led by as many as 29!), the win came at home where the Sixers are now 16-2 SU. But on the road, they have a losing record (7-8 SU). I can all but guarantee that we won't seeing a repeat of the Sixers' shooting on Christmas. They hit a franchise record 21 three-pointers. We know Orlando can play defense as they are allowing just 104.9 PPG, which is third fewest in the entire NBA. They held the Bulls under 40% from the field in Monday's 103-95 victory. That snapped a three-game losing skid and was just the second win for the Magic in their L8 games. But this is a pretty clear "ambush spot" from where I sit. Leading scorer Nikola Vucevic is back in the lineup and he makes this a pretty formidable team. 10* Orlando |
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12-27-19 | Michigan State -3.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 76 h 0 m | Show |
8* Michigan State (3:20 ET): There's no denying that Michigan State underachieved this year. That can be quickly confirmed by their 3-9 ATS record. But I'm still surprised to see Sparty laying such a short number in this year's Pinstripe Bowl to a clearly inferior Wake Forest side. I still consider Mark Dantonio's team to be a top 30 team (in the country) despite its pedestrian 6-6 SU mark. There are issues offensively, but the same can be said for their opponent, who is dealing with uncertainty at QB and a depleted receiving corps. I'm going to lay the short number here. Wake Forest has won and covered three straight bowl games under HC Dave Clawson. But there is some uncertainty over who will be starting at QB in the Pinstripe Bowl after Jamie Newman got hurt in the final regular season game. If Newman can't go, it will be Sam Hartman under center. Regardless if it's Newman or Hartman, the Wake Forest receiving corps has been hit hard by injuries this year. All the injuries resulted in the Demon Deacons losing three of their last four games. They haven't won a game outside of Winston-Salem since beating Boston College 27-24 in the final weekend of September. Their only other road win was against Rice. The Pinstripe Bowl is unique in that it is played in cold weather (NYC). Sure enough, that's led to the Big 10 (more accustomed to the cold) going 4-1 SU/ATS vs. the ACC in the bowl's short history, the only loss coming in overtime. The Big 10 is clearly better than the ACC this year. While their offense struggles, the Spartans have a massive defensive edge here as WF gives up nearly 35 PPG away from home. Being in a bowl was clearly important for MSU as they won their final two regular season games to get here. Sparty is 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 pts the L3 seasons. WF is 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS as an underdog in the same price range. 8* Michigan State |
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12-26-19 | Knicks v. Nets -7 | Top | 94-82 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): Tip your cap to the Nets, who have managed to stay relevant despite lengthy injury absences from both Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert. Of course, Kevin Durant hasn't even suited up this season, but that was expected when he was signed. Still, when Irving and Durant were both brought in, there was a lot of internal optimism from the franchise. Being 7th in the Eastern Conference probably isn't want they had in mind, but given the injuries, it's not all that bad. This team should still easily make the playoffs. The Knicks lost out on both Irving and Durant in free agency and when then happened, the team was pretty much resigned to another losing year. Sure enough, New York comes in at 7-24 SU. Only the Hawks have a worse record and point differential. The Knicks don't score much (tied for last at 103.5 PPG) nor do they play very good defense. They're currently on a three-game losing skid that has seen them allow an average of 124.3 PPG. The emergence of Spencer Dinwiddie has been huge for the Nets as he's come in and averaged 26.1 PPG on 44.5% shooting as a starter. He's scored 20+ points in 16 of his last 18 games including a career-best seven in a row. Brooklyn is 8-3 ATS its L11 games and clearly superior to their NY rivals. The Knicks are a miserable 3-12 SU on the road, 0-8 SU in division games and 0-6 ATS when playing with exactly two days rest. The Nets should have no problem winning this game by a big margin. 10* Brooklyn |
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12-26-19 | Miami-FL -6 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 0-14 | Loss | -104 | 53 h 12 m | Show |
8* Miami FL (4:00 ET): Miami does not have a good recent history in bowl games. They've gone 1-8 ATS in their last nine, including last year's complete "no-show" vs. Wisconsin (lost 35-3). This year, "The U" heads to Shreveport, LA for what will be a de facto road game against Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl. Despite that history of failing to "get up" for bowl games, I am shocked to see how this number has been bet down so much. The Hurricanes are simply more talented than their opponent, which played the weakest schedule in all of the FBS. Yes, some players have elected to sit this one out for Miami (preparing for NFL Draft), but I believe the holdovers will indeed "show up" Thursday afternoon. Lay the points. I thought Miami would contend for the ACC's Coastal Division title. Interestingly enough, they did defeat division champ Virginia 17-9 in a game they were favored to win! They also easily could have beaten the team favored to win this year's Orange Bowl, that being #9 Florida, but blew a 4Q lead in that one (season opener). Three terrible outright losses down to the stretch (Ga Tech, FIU, Duke) definitely took the shine off Manny Diaz's team. But they still have a tremendous defense that ranked 13th in the country in yards allowed (307.6 per game). Louisiana Tech simply did not face a team this talented all year w/ the possible exception of Texas, who crushed them by 31 points. La Tech's recent bowl history is good as they have won five straight. But the Bulldogs also have to shake off some disappointment from the way they ended the regular season. QB J'Mar Smith was among the key suspensions down the stretch that cost this team the chance to play in the C-USA Title Game. The suspended players are all back, but it's difficult to look past the fact that La Tech is just 2-3 SU vs. bowl teams w/ those wins coming over FIU and Southern Miss. Also, the defense is going to be without its top cornerback as he's sitting out for the Draft. I think the Bulldogs' offense is going to struggle against this Miami defense and the undervalued favorite (which should be laying double digits) is going to come through 8* Miami FL |
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12-25-19 | Pelicans v. Nuggets -9.5 | Top | 112-100 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 3 m | Show |
8* Denver (10:35 ET): They don't have the star power of many of their Western Conference contemporaries, but the Nuggets storm into Christmas night on a seven-game win streak and in second place, which is right where they finished last year. I think the most surprising thing about the team this year has been its defense, which leads the league by giving up just 102.1 PPG. They are big favorites here at home vs. New Orleans, but for good reason. Lay the points. The Pelicans have had a dreadful 1st half, which has included a 13-game losing streak. They snapped that last week with a 107-99 win at Minnesota, a team dealing w/ its own DD losing skid currently. Then after a four-point loss at Golden State, NO won again, surprising Portland Monday as six-point dogs, 102-94. The bad news here for the Pelicans is that they are 0-4 SU/ATS this season coming off a SU win as a dog. This will also be their 4th straight game on the road. Denver is not an easy place to play either. The Nuggets have a 13-3 SU home record and tighten up their already stout defense a little more here. Believe it or not, Denver has some revenge here for an Opening Night loss in the Big Easy. It's really surprising to see that they are 0-5 ATS vs. the Pelicans since the start of last season with three outright defeats. Look for that streak to come to a resounding end tonight as the Pelicans are no match for the vastly superior Nuggets. New Orleans allows the most points per game in the Western Conference. 8* Denver |
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12-25-19 | Clippers v. Lakers -2 | Top | 111-106 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (8:00 ET): These teams haven't met since Opening Night when the Clippers dealt the Lakers a 122-112 defeat. I played the Clips in that one, stating I was unconvinced that the Lakers could emerge the top team in the Western Conference. While I was right about the game, I was wrong about the Lakers' prospects as they come into X-Mas leading the West w/ a 24-6 record. That said, they are currently on a season-worst three-game losing streak (LeBron sat Sunday's game vs. Denver). With LeBron obviously playing I have the Lakers getting it done in this revenge spot. The Clippers are currently 4th in the West with a 22-10 record. They have a similar YTD point differential to the Lakers and another thing they have in common is some recent stumbles. The Clips have dropped three of five, including a 118-112 decision at OKC on Sunday. Also like the Lakers, this team is much better when both of its superstars - Kawhi Leonard and Paul George - both play (11-3 SU in those games). But I'm not convinced that they are as good as the Lakers. The fact that the Lakers have lost three in a row is pretty significant in that it should have them really motivated (as if they needed any extra motivation) for this X-Mas Day game. Plus there's the revenge angle. Following the Opening Night loss to the Clippers, the Lakers would go on to win 24 of their next 26 games. I wouldn't put much stock into the three-game losing streak as one of the losses came against Milwaukee and another w/o LeBron. The Lakers rate higher than the Clippers in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Lay the short number. 10* LA Lakers |
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12-23-19 | Packers v. Vikings -5 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 11 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:15 ET): Green Bay may very well end up winning this division, but in the opinion of myself and many others, Minnesota is the best team in the NFC North. The Vikings have a top four point differential in the league entering Week 16 (+119), more than double that of the Packers (+47). In the first head to head meeting (back in Week 2), which was at Lambeau Field, Green Bay did win 21-16. But the Vikings outgained them 7.0 to 4.9 on a per play basis, a huge margin for any game, let alone for the loser. At home (where they're a perfect 6-0 SU), look for the Vikings to get their revenge Monday night. Green Bay winning that first meeting in spite of the yard per play differential is somewhat emblematic of the kind of "fluky" season that they are having. Despite being 11-3, they've been outgained on both a per game and per play basis. That's very rare. They are also a very fortunate 7-1 SU in games decided by eight points or less. That YTD point differential is not what you'd expect from an 11-3 team. There have been a number of games throughout the year where the Packers probably did not "deserve" to win, but did. One of them was a Monday night game at Detroit where they trailed nearly the entire game but won 23-22. The Vikings are the league's only undefeated team at home. They aren't just winning these home games either; they're blowing teams out by an average margin of 13.5 PPG. Now a lot will be made of Kirk Cousins' 0-8 ATS record on MNF and the fact he'll be without RB Dalvin Cook here. But Green Bay is just 2-6 ATS its last eight appearances on MNF. Cousins is also 13-3 ATS as a single digit favorite, including 8-1 ATS at home, since joining the Vikings. Green Bay has not won here at U.S. Bank Stadium since it opened in 2016. Bottom line is the Vikings are the better team here. 10* Minnesota |
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12-23-19 | Georgia State +8.5 v. SMU | Top | 76-85 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
10* Georgia State (7:00 ET): After an 8-0 start to the year, SMU has now lost B2B games. The most recent was a double overtime affair at Georgia. All three of the Mustangs' "true" road games have been decided by four points or less. While they do return to Dallas for this last game before X-Mas, the last time SMU played here at home, they got beat 91-74 by a Georgetown team that was on the verge of being depleted by the transfer portal. Looking at the early line movement, I think people are selling on the notion of SMU losing three straight. I remain a little more skeptical of them. Georgia State comes in on a seven-game win streak. They are also 8-2 ATS this season including a perfect 4-0 ATS as underdogs. The Panthers have also lost to Georgetown, but their game was closer (lost by only eight) and it was on the road. They haven't lost since falling to the Hoyas. The only other two losses were to Duke and by four at College of Charleston. An underdog that averages over 80 PPG is very attractive. The Panthers have covered all five "true" road games as well. In their last game, Georgia State held Texas State to 36.5% shooting, which shows they can play some defense as well. That was their second straight win to open conference play and right now they should probably be considered the favorites to win the Sun Belt. The Panthers play at a very fast pace, rank third in the country in three-point percentage (41.2), don't turn it over much and are efficient in rebounding and at the FT line. This is a very live dog against a SMU team that really hasn't beaten any opponent of real consequence. 10* Georgia State |
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12-22-19 | Chiefs v. Bears +7 | Top | 26-3 | Loss | -133 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
8* Chicago (8:20 ET): The Bears saw their already slim playoff hopes dashed last week and to make matters worse it came at the hands of old nemesis Aaron Rodgers. At the start of the season, I called the Bears a prime candidate to regress and regress they have as they've dropped from 12 to 7 wins (w/ two games still to play). But in spite of said regression, not everything is bad in the Windy City. They've got a defense that's still giving up only 18.1 PPG. While they may have lost 21-13 to the Packers last week, the Bears actually finished with a 415-292 edge in total yards and had eight more first downs. It was a -3 turnover margin that bit them in the end. Kansas City has won the AFC West again and is just looking to improve its playoff position these last two weeks. As a division champ, they could still finish anywhere from the #1 to #4 seed. A first round bye, which the top two seeds get, is looking less likely after New England's win Saturday. But still this is a team that obviously must be respected as they come in riding a four-game win streak, during which they've even played some defense! The last four opponents have scored a combined 45 points, a big reason why the Chiefs are also 4-0 ATS during that stretch. In taking the points here, there obviously is a bit of concern over whether or not the Bears' offense will be able to "keep up" with the Chiefs. But I expect QB Mitchell Trubisky, who was infamously drafted ahead of Patrick Mahomes (and DeShaun Watson), to come out motivated for the final home game. Trubisky has played better down the stretch and even owns the NFL's longest active streak of five games without an interception. He's also 7-2 ATS in his career in primetime games. Don't discount the ability of the Bears' defense to keep KC's offense in check either. Then there's the homefield advantage as the L3 seasons have seen Chicago go 15-8 ATS at Soldier Field, including 6-1-1 ATS when getting points. This spread was bet up and is now simply too high, having hit a key number. 8* Chicago |
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12-22-19 | Raiders v. Chargers -6.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -120 | 65 h 27 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers (4:05 ET): Looking at the AFC West standings, something immediately jumps out to me. No, I'm not talking about the fact that the Chiefs have already clinched another division title. It's the fact that the Raiders, with a -112 YTD point differential, are somehow still in second place. Meanwhile, the Chargers are in last place despite having actually outscored opponents this season. LA can at least pull even with Oakland in the standings (were they to win this week), and I think they will. I'll lay the points as the Chargers are clearly the superior team here despite having one less win coming in. Last week's game was all too emblematic of the kind of season the Chargers are having. They basically had the same number of total yards as the Vikings (345-344). But SEVEN turnovers resulted in a 39-10 loss. Another game worth pointing to is what happened the first time they faced the Raiders. That game, which took place on a Thursday night, saw LA lose the turnover battle 3-0. They outgained the Raiders and had eight more first downs. But if you can't protect the football, you're not going to win in this league. Still, last week was the first time all year that the Chargers lost a game by more than a touchdown. Oakland was once 6-4 and getting talked up as a potential playoff darkhorse. Since that time, the Silver and Black have gotten badly exposed, losing four straight. Three of those losses were by a combined 83 points. Then came last week's gag job vs. Jacksonville, the final game they'll ever play in Oakland. I was on the Jaguars, noting the Raiders' poor point differential, which by the way now is 4th worst in the league. This is a really bad team as five of their eight losses have been by at least 18 points. 10* LA Chargers |
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12-22-19 | Saints v. Titans +3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): Saturday's win by the Texans officially ended the Titans' hopes of winning the division (AFC South). Losing here at home to the Texans last week really stung, but Tennessee can still make the playoffs as a Wild Card. It's down to them or Pittsburgh. Let us not forget that last week was just the second time the Titans lost since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB for the ineffective Marcus Mariota (6-2 SU). My power rankings say they should be favored in this spot and under HC Mike Vrabel, the team is 4-2 ATS as a home dog w/ four outright wins. New Orleans is off a very impressive performance on Monday Night Football. They throttled the Colts 34-7 to clinch their own division. Drew Brees set two NFL records in the win, one for single-game completion percentage (29 for 30, 96.7%) and he also became the NFL's all-time leader in TD passes. Coming off high-profile win like that, it's no wonder the public loves Brees and the Saints here, but it's a short week and now they are on the road (outdoors too). The Titans' defense (19.9 PPG allowed) is a lot better than the Colts, so look for Brees to be far less comfortable this week. I was skeptical at first, but Tannehill has done a great job as the starter for Tennessee, leading the league in yards per pass attempt (9.5). Reports on the status of RB Henry are conflicting, but the Saints have given up an average of 28.2 points in four games vs. top 8 rushing offenses (Titans are 8th in rushing). A change at kicker will be a positive as the Titans are last in the league in field goals made. Tennessee easily could have scored more last week as they gained 6.4 yards per play. But they had a FG blocked and Tannehill threw an INT near the goal line. 8* Tennessee |
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12-21-19 | Rockets v. Suns +6 | Top | 139-125 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): Leading scorer Devin Booker returned last night for the Suns, but it wasn't enough to turn the tide as the team lost 126-108 out in Oklahoma City. That's five losses in a row now for the Suns, who have tumbled down the standings as a result. But the numbers still suggest that this is a competitive ballclub as they're only being outscored by 0.3 PPG on the year. Tonight, they return home. While they came up short the L2 home games, those losses were by a combined three points. It's not an easy opponent coming in tonight, but I'll take the points w/ Phoenix. The Rockets are coming off a big win out in LA as they beat the Clippers on Thursday, 122-117 as five-point dogs. But it wasn't easy. They trailed by as many as 16 in the second half and needed 40 points from Russell Westbrook in addition to 28 from James Harden. It was actually the second straight game where Houston rallied from a big deficit to win. Monday night at home vs. San Antonio, they trailed by as many as 25 before coming back to win 109-107. There's no denying the Rockets are a good team, but needing these kind of comebacks isn't a great sign. This is the 4th time Houston has won B2B games since Thanksgiving. They have yet to put together a three-game win streak as they are 0-3 SU/ATS off B2B wins w/ every loss coming in a game where they were favored to win by at least 7 points. With Booker, Phoenix can definitely score (116.6 PPG at home) and they are 13-4 ATS when playing with revenge. Two weeks ago, they lost by only six in Houston (were +11.5). While that was their 12th straight loss to the Rockets, the final margin being close only confirmed that the Suns are a lot better now than they've been in past years. 10* Phoenix |
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12-21-19 | Kansas State -1.5 v. St. Louis | Top | 63-66 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
10* Kansas State (7:00 ET): This game takes place at a neutral setting (Kansas City, MO). Kansas State doesn't exactly come in peak form as they've dropped four of six, including a 67-61 setback at the hands of Mississippi State last weekend. That was also a neutral site game, which took place in Newark, NJ. Poor shooting was the clear culprit as the Wildcats made only 32.3% of their FG attempts, including just EIGHT two-point field goals. I expect an improvement on offense here against a St. Louis side that just let a non-DI opponent shoot better than 50%. St. Louis is 9-2 SU w/ their only losses coming to Seton Hall and Auburn. The Auburn loss was exactly one week ago and it was a very uninspired follow-up on Tuesday as they beat Maryville, a non-board team, 82-69. Most concerning for the Billikens is they allowed 51.9% shooting. While they were never really in danger of losing, SLU allowed Maryville to make a stunning 23 of 38 two-point field goals. That's shocking for that caliber of opponent. Kansas State has not played since last Saturday, giving them a bit of an advantage. I realize it's been a bit of a disappointing stretch for the Wildcats, but two of St. Louis' top three scorers are dealing w/ injuries. KSU is also 5-1 SU and ATS the L6 head to head meetings. The Wildcats are still solid defensive (only 59.0 PPG allowed) and I see this as being a "breakout" game. 10* Kansas State |
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12-21-19 | SMU v. Florida Atlantic +3.5 | Top | 28-52 | Win | 100 | 97 h 42 m | Show |
***Note: This analysis was written prior to the announcement that several FAU players would be suspended. But I am still recommending a play on FAU at the current number!*** 10* Florida Atlantic (3:30 ET): The Boca Raton Bowl is a home game for FAU, who won this very bowl game 50-3 (over Akron) two years ago to cap an incredible first season under Lane Kiffin. Ironically, this same bowl is where the next chapter of FAU football will begin as Kiffin has moved on to Ole Miss and won't be coaching Saturday. Kiffin departs having gone 26-13 SU in his three seasons in Boca Raton, twice winning 10+ games and a C-USA Championship. Willie Taggart, fresh off failing over at Florida State, will be Kiffin's replacement. But DC Glenn Spencer will serve as the interim for the bowl. SMU was shaping up to be a really nice story, starting 8-0 for the first time since 1982 (program's heyday, pre "Death Penalty") and there was talk that Sonny Dykes' team would be making it to the Cotton Bowl, which would have been one heck of a story. But the Mustangs dropped two of their final four regular season games and were pretty much an afterthought in the AAC race going into the final weekend. That shouldn't take away from what the team has accomplished in two years under Dykes, but the only bowl teams it beat were Arkansas State, Temple and Tulane. Were it not for Kiffin leaving, you'd have to think FAU would be the favorite here. A coach leaving is obviously a very big deal, but this is still a home game for the Owls, who have won six in a row. There were no signs of "packing it in" in the C-USA Title Game when they dismantled UAB 49-6 on this field. I was 3-0 ATS taking FAU this year, including that C-USA Title Game. They are +14.5 PPG at home and it should be pointed out that since opening 0-2 (lost to UCF and Ohio St!), the Owls are 10-1 SU and have scored 31 or more pts in every game but one! They aren't as strong as the team that covered this game as a 22-point favorite two years ago. But they shouldn't be getting points either. 10* Florida Atlantic |
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12-21-19 | Texans v. Bucs +3 | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 94 h 6 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): Houston took a big step towards winning its second straight AFC South title Sunday by beating Tennessee 24-21 as a three-point underdog. However, they were outgained in the contest (432-374) and gave up 6.4 yards per play. I had to sweat out an Under, which was my 10* Total of the Year. The fact is I was lucky to win it as the Texans defense forced only three punts (just 1 in the second half) as it predictably is not the same since JJ Watt went down with a pec injury. I believe an explosive Bucs offense is going to be able to have its way in this one. Credit the job HC Bruce Arians is doing in his first season in Tampa Bay. When this team was 3-7 SU, they easily could have rolled over and "packed it in" for the season. Instead, the Bucs have won four in a row for the first time since 2016. While they haven't beaten anyone the caliber of Houston during this stretch, the Bucs have beaten two other AFC South teams - Indianapolis & Jacksonville. Despite QB Jameis Winston's propensity for turning the ball over, he is leading an attack that has scored 38 pts B2B weeks. Winston has thrown for 467 and 446 yards in those games. It was a mistake I made going against the Bucs last week as they easily beat the undermanned Lions 38-17. But I didn't like them laying points on the road. Now they are a home dog in a situation where my own power ratings say they should be a slight favorite! The Texans are 1-5 ATS as favorites this season. You might be shocked to learn that the Bucs have the league's 13th best point differential (+18), which is just ahead of the division leading Texans. Houston can clinch the AFC South this week w/ a win here, but w/ a rematch against Tennessee set to take place next week, doesn't it seem almost "preordained" that that game would decide the division? 10* Tampa Bay |
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12-20-19 | Liberty v. Towson +7 | Top | 66-54 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
8* Towson (5:00 ET): Raise your hand if you were aware that Liberty was one of the four remaining unbeatens left in College Basketball. Quite frankly, the entire quartet includes names you wouldn't expect as Liberty is one of two teams not even ranked (Duquesne is the other). Auburn and San Diego State are the other two unbeatens, but I don't think anyone is really talking about either of them (well maybe Auburn) as a potential Final Four team. Liberty is 12-0 SU, which is the best record in the country. But the Flames haven't exactly had to "run the gauntlet" schedule-wise. In terms of strength of schedule, KenPom says they've played among the 10 easiest in the entire country! Tip your cap to the job done so far as they have blown out a majority of their opponents. They also just went on the road and beat Vanderbilt last Saturday. That was the fifth straight lined game that they covered. But I remain very suspect of this team's success. I won't sell you on the notion that Towson is any kind of great team. But the Tigers should certainly be coming in motivated for this game against an undefeated foe. The game takes place in Washington D.C. as part of the "Battle for the Capital" Tournament. Towson has had nine days off since they beat UMBC 77-71 (didn't quite cover as 8.5-pt dogs). While Liberty is going to look to establish its usual methodical pace in this one, I see the underdog staying within the number as they've already taken on a number of stronger opponents like Florida and Xavier. The Tigers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in neutral court games when the total is 120 to 129.5. 8* Towson |
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12-19-19 | Montana State v. CS Bakersfield -4 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
8* CS-Bakersfield (10:00 ET): Cal State Bakersfield has had all sorts of problems covering spreads this season. They enter this game at 1-8 ATS and have also lost three in a row straight up. Two of those games, vs UC Santa Barbara and at Idaho, were close. The Roadrunners were even favorites at Idaho (-5.5) last Saturday, but eventually went down in OT by a score of 76-70. That final six-point margin was the largest lead either team enjoyed the entire game. Such are the breaks when you're a struggling team. But I see the Roadrunners earning a rare win tonight at the expense of Montana State, who is playing its second road game in four days. The first saw them lose by 14 at North Dakota State. Since a 4-1 start, the Bobcats have now lost three of five. They haven't dropped B2B games yet this season, but I think it speaks volumes that they come in as the underdog here. So far Montana State has been favored in only two games. That's two fewer times that Cal State Bakersfield. I'm counting on homecourt advantage playing a role tonight. CS-Bakersfield has averaged 81 PPG at home so far and all four wins this season have come right here. While its true three of those were against non-DI foes, they did also beat Hampton 70-57 as a seven-point favorite. Montana State, meanwhile, is averaging only 62 PPG on the road. Despite shooting just 35.1% their last game, CS-Bakersfield still managed to almost win on the road. They are "due" for a win tonight and get the job done. 8* CS-Bakersfield |
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12-18-19 | Cal Poly +11 v. CS Sacramento | Top | 56-57 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
10* Cal Poly SLO (10:05 ET): Cal Poly is off a terrible loss (to Fresno State), but thankfully is catching generous number tonight at Sacramento State. Obviously, those two things are tied together. Scoring only 37 points isn't an easy thing to do, but that's what the Mustangs finished with Saturday vs. Fresno. And that was a home game. They shot a dreadful 24.5% from the field including 1 of 16 from three-point range. But, believe it or not, it was just a three-point game at halftime. Sacramento State is a team probably not on your radar, but they should be as they are the only perfect ATS team left in the country. Though they lost Saturday, the Hornets improved to 6-0 ATS by staying within the number at Santa Clara. The final score was 60-58. It was only the second loss of the year for Sacramento State, the other coming at Colorado. They actually led Santa Clara much of the game, but could not overcome their own poor shooting night. The key for tonight is that this is the most points Sacramento State has had to lay in any game so far this season. Looking at Cal Poly's resume, that should not be a surprise. But Sacramento State has been a dog in half of its lined games so far and it's a big jump to DD favorite. Cal Poly has faced better teams than Sacramento State and I'm willing to chalk Saturday up to "one of those nights." The fact that the number came down rather quickly only confirms my suspicions here. 10* Cal Poly SLO |
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12-15-19 | Ohio State v. Minnesota +8.5 | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (6:30 ET): #3 Ohio State is set to open conference play on Sunday with a visit to Minnesota. The Big 10 is once again absolutely loaded with three teams currently in the AP Top 5 and seven in the top 25 of the KenPom ratings. Minnesota may not be one of those teams, but they still present a formidable challenge for the unbeaten Buckeyes on Sunday. We've seen unbeatens "drop like flies" over the past week, so I'm taking the points here. Minnesota's Big 10 opener did not go well as they were beaten by 20 at Iowa on Monday. It was the Gophers' worst loss of the season as they shot just 36.8% from the field. Looking at the game by game shooting percentages, it's easy to identify which games the Gophers have won and which they have lost. In their four wins, they are shooting better than 50%. In the five losses, they are below 38%. Three of those five losses were on the road, however. Ohio State has been dominant at both ends of the floor. They just scored 106 points on Penn State last Saturday, a performance that was preceded by a 74-49 beatdown of North Carolina in Chapel Hill. While a case could be made that the Buckeyes have played better than anyone in the country so far, I think this is a spot where they can slip up. They've been off for over a week and it's just their second "true" road game. The Gophers have revenge for an ugly 20-point loss in Columbus last year (I had the Buckeyes in that one), plus can OSU really cover for an eighth straight time? 10* Minnesota |
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12-15-19 | Jaguars +7 v. Raiders | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 50 h 44 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (4:05 ET): Well, we're going with some real "beauties" in this 3-pack, no? This Jags-Raiders game is as ugly as any on the slate not named "Dolphins @ Giants." While Oakland would seem to be a respectable team because of its 6-7 SU record, they have lost three straight games - all by 21 points or more. They've failed to cover four in a row. There may not be a team w/ a more misleading record in the league right now as the Silver and Black have a YTD point differential of -108, just seven points better than the 2-11 Giants. The Raiders should not be laying a touchdown to anybody right now. Not to be outdone, Jacksonville is on a five-game losing streak - SU and ATS - and all five losses have been by at least 17 points. It hasn't mattered whether it's been Gardner Minshew II or Nick Foles in at QB, the results have not been pretty. Last week the Jags got thoroughly outclassed at home by the Chargers, losing 45-10 in a game where they were outgained by more than a 2:1 margin. Still it's interesting to see how the market has shifted against Jacksonville for this one. It was never more than a 4.5-point underdog in any of those L5 games. This is likely to be the final game the Raiders ever play in Oakland. They are scheduled to move to Las Vegas for the 2020 season. While I'm sure there will be some emotion in the "Black Hole," that still doesn't justify the Raiders laying more than 3.5 points for just the second time all season. The first was here at home vs. Cincinnati (were -12.5) and they only won that game 17-10. They haven't won since. Oakland has gone off as the favorite in only three games all season! I see Jacksonville playing better than usual this week as these are two teams I have rated very evenly. 8* Jacksonville |
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12-15-19 | Bucs v. Lions +4 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 39 m | Show |
8* Detroit (1:00 ET): The Lions' season has taken a drastic downturn with six straight losses. They've lost 9 of 10 since a 2-0-1 start and what makes that all the more frustrating is they've been in a majority of these games. Last week's 20-7 loss to the Vikings was the first game all season in which the Lions never led. Incredibly, they have led or at least been tied in the 4th quarter in all but three games (two vs. Minnesota, one vs. Dallas). Injuries have certainly taken a toll, but I still don't believe they should be getting more than a field goal this week at home vs. the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has fought its way back to 6-7 SU by winning three in row. They probably deserved a better fate than pushing as three-point favorites in 38-35 win last week over Indianapolis, considering they outgained the Colts 542-309. But because they turned the ball over four times (three interceptions by Jameis Winston), they actually needed to come back from a two touchdown deficit. Winston is now dealing w/ a thumb injury, which won't help his ball security issues. Note Tampa Bay has not won four in a row since 2016. This is the most points they've had to lay in any road game since the 2013 season opener (which they lost outright to the Jets). My own power rankings have this spread as a pick 'em. Yes, I am aware that Detroit has managed all of 17 points in the last seven quarters w/ third stringer David Blough at QB. But that doesn't change the fact TB shouldn't be laying this many points. Like the Lions, the Bucs have experienced a six-game ATS losing streak this year. They have only four wins by more than a field goal. The injured Winston won't have Mike Evans to throw to either as the Bucs top WR may be done for the season. Detroit's secondary only has five interceptions all season, but they could easily double that number here. 8* Detroit. |
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12-15-19 | Seahawks v. Panthers +7 | Top | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 39 m | Show |
8* Carolina (1:00 ET): When talking about teams whose season went south in a hurry, few can compare to the Panthers, who shockingly fired HC Ron Rivera two weeks ago. The coaching change failed to turn the tide last week in Atlanta where the Panthers lost 40-20 as 3.5-point underdogs. They've now lost five in a row - by an average of 13 points per game. But both blowouts came against Atlanta. The other three losses have all been one-score games as have been five of the team's eight total losses this season. In the first home game under interim HC Perry Fewell, I am expecting an inspired effort. Seattle has had just the opposite luck as Carolina this season. They entered last week's game w/ the Rams at 10-2 w/ a YTD point differential of +36. No team in NFL history had ever won 10 of its first 12 games w/ a point differential that small. Sure enough, we faded them out in LA last week and they were beaten 28-12, further exposing that point differential. I've said it before and I'll say it again here. The Seahawks have been more lucky than good this season by going a ridiculously fortunate 9-2 SU in one-score games. Their ONLY win that came by more than eight points was Week 4 at Arizona. I know the bloom is off the "Kyle Allen rose" and that the Panthers defense has had some real difficulties stopping teams of late. But, with "the world" figuring to be on Seattle this week, this is a great chance to step in and "buy low" on the home dog. This is a spread that should be no larger than a field goal. Seattle's rushing attack took a hit w/ Rashaad Penny tearing his ACL last week. The Panthers have also been unfortunate to be -12 in turnover margin during their 5-game losing streak. They get these issues correct this week and at least cover against a Seattle team that isn't as good as its record. This will be the Seahawks' FIFTH trip to the Eastern Time Zone. 8* Carolina |
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12-14-19 | Thunder +7 v. Nuggets | Top | 102-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (9:05 ET): With the exodus of talent that took place in the offseason (both Russell Westbrook and Paul George leaving), most expected the Thunder's win total to take a serious nosedive in 2019-20. But they've remained competitive and actually have a positive point differential and net efficiency rating entering Saturday. Only six teams in the West have winning records right now, so the Thunder could actually end up making the playoffs if they can maintain their level of play from the first quarter of the season. I like them as an underdog tonight in Denver. The Nuggets won the Northwest last season w/ a 54-28 SU record. That was second best among all teams in the conference (behind only Golden State), but it came w/ a caveat, that being a 13-3 record in games decided by three points or less. So I anticipate a little regression from Denver this year. But, like the Thunder, so far they've been able to outperform expectations, largely due to giving up the fewest number of points in the league (101.6 PPG). They are 5th in the West right now, which honestly is where I expect them to finish. Over the previous two seasons, the Thunder are 0-8 ATS vs. the Nuggets and 1-7 straight up. They've lost all four games here in Denver. But I like the number we are getting tonight. Over those last eight head to head meetings, the Nuggets have been favored just one time. OKC has covered four straight, the last three all coming on the road, and the only SU loss during that stretch was by a single point. They've held their L3 opponents all under 100 points. In what could be a low-scoring game, taking points is a premium. 10* Oklahoma City |
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12-14-19 | CS Sacramento v. Santa Clara -7 | Top | 58-60 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
10* Santa Clara (5:00 ET): Whenever I see Santa Clara, I think back to when I was a kid and they pulled that big 1st Round NCAA Tournament upset against Arizona. It was one of the first times a 15-seed ever won a 1st round Tournament game. Just to illustrate how long ago that was, Steve Nash was on that team! He's retired from the NBA now, I'm not a kid anymore and Santa Clara really hasn't done anything notable since. But I'm looking for them to make a "new memory" for me this afternoon as they host Sacramento State. Santa Clara has actually been pretty good this year. Their only two losses have been on the road, at Nevada and Stanford. At home, they are 9-0 SU and winning by an average margin of 21.1 PPG. True to form, the Broncos beat Cal by 19 here last Saturday. Every win this year has been by double digits. The Broncos are getting the job done at both ends of the floor, shooting over 50% at home while keeping their opponents down at 39.4%. Sacramento State's only loss this year came on the road to a ranked Colorado team. So the Hornets will be a real test for Santa Clara this afternoon. Sacramento State is one of only two teams left in the country w/o an ATS loss (5-0 ATS), the other being UTEP, who has played only three lined games. It was a close call last week on the road against CS-Fullerton as they pulled off a 62-59 win as 2-point favorites. I don't like the chances of a team that has topped 62 only once against a D-I opponent here. 10* Santa Clara |
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12-13-19 | Pacers -6 v. Hawks | Top | 110-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:35 ET): The Pacers just picked up a big conference win on Wednesday, beating Boston 122-117 here at home. They came from behind, overcoming a 10-point deficit and 44 points from Kemba Walker, in doing so. Now they'll be taking on a far less formidable foe in Atlanta, a team they have beaten six straight times. While the game is on the road, the spread should be a lot higher than where it opened at. The Hawks have surrendered 130+ points in three of the last four games. Lay the points. I faded Atlanta in its most recent game, Wednesday in Chicago, noting what a horrible spot it was for such a bad team. Just the night before, they'd blown a six-point lead in the final minute of regulation and lost to Miami in overtime. Sure enough, the Hawks came out like a defeated team on Wednesday, allowing the Bulls to shoot an insane 57.4% from the field. It was the Bulls' best game of the season, which isn't exactly a ringing endorsement of what's going on in Atlanta right now. This is a team that's won just twice in its last 15 games. The Hawks are very clearly one of the worst teams in the league this year. They are being outscored by 10 points every 100 possessions and are second to last (tied w/ Cleveland) in defensive efficiency. A couple weeks ago, they were able to stay within one point of the Pacers in Indiana, but that was an off-shooting night for the Pacers. Trae Young also went for a career-high 49 points. While that game may have been close, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect Indiana to win by a larger margin tonight. They just scored 122 on one of the league's better defensive teams. 10* Indiana |
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12-12-19 | Northern Iowa v. Grand Canyon +6 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
10* Grand Canyon (9:00 ET): Back on Sunday, Grand Canyon failed in its attempt to become the first team to knock off (still) unbeaten Liberty. They lost 70-61, but did cover for me as 9.5-point dogs. Tonight the Antelopes face another hot team, that being Northern Iowa, who just knocked off Colorado. While off to a strong 9-1 SU and 7-1 ATS start to the season, I think this is a dangerous spot for UNI to be laying points. Their last five games have either been non-lined or seen them as underdogs. Grand Canyon went scoreless for about 6:30 in the second half Sunday, which ended up costing them the game. Poor shooting has been a problem for Dan Majerle’s team this year, but eventually these open shots will start falling. This is a team that’s been in every game but one (at San Diego State). They are 31-8 SU L39 home games. Northern Iowa’s win over Colorado was their first over a ranked opponent in the last seven tries. They were red-hot from the floor, especially from three-point range where they made over 50 (14 of 26). Can’t see that kind of shooting happening again in a second straight road game. It’s also their second road game in three days, a tough spot. Four of the Panthers wins so far have been by five points or less. 10* Grand Canyon |
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12-12-19 | Jets +17.5 v. Ravens | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -130 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (8:20 ET): With three games left in the season, the Jets have already improved on last year's season-win total. This despite a 1-7 SU start w/ QB Darnold missing time due to mono. The Jets were a team that I predicted would improve upon LY's win total. Granted, I thought they'd win have more wins than five at this point and maybe they would had Darnold not missed those three games (all losses). Certainly no one is expecting the Flyboys to win Thursday as they visit Baltimore to face the 11-2 Ravens. But I do think they can stay within the number. Take the points. The Ravens emerging as the NFL's best team is NOT something I saw coming. But here we are and they have the best record, best point differential and highest scoring offense. They are 3-0 SU against the league's other 10+ win teams. But the last two games have seen John Harbaugh's team cut it a little close as they needed a last second FG to get by the 49ers here at home, then last week it was just a 7-point win at Buffalo. But the biggest concern right now is the health of QB Lamar Jackson, who is listed as questionable for this game due to a quad injury. He announced Wednesday that he would play, but the short week does him no favors. Another reason to be concerned about Jackson this week is that his left tackle Ronnie Stanley is listed as doubtful due to a concussion. The Ravens have only been double digit favorites three times and failed to cover twice. The Jets have won four of their last five and with the exception of that ugly loss in Cincinnati, they haven't been beaten by more than 14 pts since the MNF disaster vs. the Patriots. Note the Jets defense leads the league in yards per carry allowed (3.03) which is huge when facing the Ravens. This play stands regardless if Jackson plays or not. 10* NY Jets |
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12-11-19 | Hawks v. Bulls -5 | Top | 102-136 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:05 ET): I would consider this line to be too low even if the Hawks weren't playing in the second night of a back to back. But they are and the situation really couldn't be much worse as the Hawks really let one slip away last night. They led Miami by six points in the final minute of regulation, prompting Trae Young to proclaim "It's Over!" to the Heat bench. Already carrying the burden of being the guy the franchise got when it traded the draft rights to Luka Doncic, it's going to be tough for Young to live last night down. To add injury to insult, the final score ended up being 135-121, the NBA's largest margin of victory in an overtime game in over a decade! So that's what Atlanta is up against here. For Chicago, this is a great chance to pick up a much needed win. The Bulls have won just twice in the past eight games, but they've generally been losing close. The last four losses have been by a total of 12 points. They've lost their last three games, but that includes a two-point loss to Golden State (blew 9-pt 4Q lead), their own OT loss to Miami (led by as many as 11 in that one) and then a one-point loss to Toronto (blew 8-pt 4Q lead). The Hawks are one team the Bulls have actually had some success against these last few years. They are 6-2 SU and ATS the last eight head to head meetings, including a 20-pt win down in Atlanta last month. The Bulls are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS when on a three-game losing streak this season. With the Hawks just 3-10 SU and giving up 123.2 PPG on the road, the line should be several points higher for this one. 10* Chicago |
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12-10-19 | Butler v. Baylor -5 | Top | 52-53 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
8* Baylor (9:00 ET): Butler (9-0) is one of eight unbeatens still standing, but tonight the Bulldogs are facing arguably their toughest test to date. They head down to Waco to face a 7-1 Baylor team that just knocked off another previously unbeaten team (Arizona) on Saturday. For Butler, this game comes on the heels of a hard fought home win over Florida. That win extended the nation's longest non-conference home win streak to 56 games. But the Bulldogs are just 6-17 SU their L23 on the road. I'm going to lay the points here. A number of unbeatens fell on Saturday and soon enough there will be none left. For Butler, this just seems like the spot. Baylor has lost only once (by 3 at Washington) and comes in on their own six-game win streak, which includes wins over Villanova and Arizona. The most impressive thing about this Bears team is that they are allowing just 33.2% shooting at home, including 22.1% from three-point range. So for the first time all season, you can look for Butler to struggle to score tonight. Villanova is the only Baylor opponent to top 67 pts thus far. Butler hasn't let any opponent score more than 67 this season. However, the three times they have played away from home, they've allowed opponents to shoot 46.7%. Baylor is one of the few teams in the country not struggling with the new three-point distance as they're currently making 37.8% from behind the arc. Over the last three seasons, Butler has never won a game in which it was a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. That won't change here. 8* Baylor |
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12-10-19 | Wizards -1.5 v. Hornets | Top | 107-114 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): No one is going to claim that Charlotte's 9-16 SU record is anything to "crow about," but the fact of the matter is the Hornets are lucky to have won that many games. They've got a per game point differential of -7.7, which ranks 5th worst in the league. So expect the losses to pile up as the season progresses. They've dropped four of five, including a loss to a terrible Atlanta team on Saturday where they gave up 122 points. This is a another shot where we don't have to lay many points to fade this very bad team. Washington is interesting because they are very good offensively (top three in PPG) but also very bad defensively (allow most PPG). So you can always expect a wild game when this team takes the court. They gave up 135 pts their last time out, but that was to the Clippers. Tonight marks the first time this season that the Wizards have been installed as road favorites, which tells you all you need to know about Charlotte. Recently, the Wiz have been have had to face a number of the league better teams, which helps explain why they've lost seven of nine. This is a rare game that they should win. Again, it's telling that they are favored here despite having a slightly worse WL record than Charlotte. While both teams struggle defensively, Washington's offensive prowess should be enough to get the 'W' here. Three weeks ago, they beat the Hornets 125-118 in D.C. Expect a similar result tonight. 10* Washington |
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12-09-19 | Pistons +2 v. Pelicans | Top | 105-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
8* Detroit (8:05 ET): I just don't see how the Pelicans can be favored over anybody right now. They've lost eight in a row w/ three of those coming by at least 20 points. The most recent was the worst one yet as they lost by 46 in Dallas Saturday. They are 1-6-1 ATS during the eight-game SU losing streak. Incredibly, that hasn't stopped oddsmakers from favoring them for the third time in the last five games. Detroit might not be a good road team, but they are better than the Pelicans. The Pistons have won three of four with the only loss coming to Milwaukee. Two of the wins were blowouts (San Antonio, Cleveland), then they rallied to beat Indiana 108-101 on Friday. With games against Dallas and Houston coming up, winning here is a must. Note that despite a 9-14 SU record, the Pistons have both a positive point differential and net efficiency rating this year. New Orleans' YTD point differential and their net efficiency rating are both among the worst in the league. Only five teams have been outscored by a wider margin overall. They have the third worst defensive efficiency rating in the league. I've got them rated as the 7th worst team in my own personal power ratings. Injuries have been rampant. Just not a good team and they shouldn't be favored here. 8* Detroit |
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12-09-19 | Columbia +11.5 v. Duquesne | Top | 54-90 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10* Columbia (7:00 ET): Since Saturday, the list of unbeaten teams has fallen from 16 to 8 w/ DePaul being the latest victim. Of the eight remaining unbeatens, we have Duquesne rated the weakest. The Dukes are in action Monday, hosting Columbia. The Dukes have been favored in all seven games so far, as they are tonight, but this is a team that ranks outside the top 100 nationally in offensive efficiency. No other unbeaten ranks lower than 78th in that category. Columbia is just 3-7. This is the second time in the last three games that they are facing an unbeaten foe. Last Monday it was Delaware. They lost by eight to the Blue Hens, who have since tasted defeat for the first time. On Friday, the Lions lost by two at Bryant as they turned it over in the final seconds, which led to the game winning basket. Incredibly, that was Columbia’s third loss by exactly two points already this year. I feel they are better than their record. Will the Ivy League contingent pull the outright upset here? Not sure. But it’s definitely worth a try plus the points. They’ve faced a tougher schedule than Duquesne. I mentioned earlier that the Dukes have been favored in every game. Well, they are just 3-4 ATS including 0-2 ATS when laying double digits. 10* Columbia |
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12-08-19 | Seahawks v. Rams +1 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 76 h 13 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (8:20 ET): The line move here is certainly interesting as it would seem to support my own previously stated skepticism of Seattle. The Seahawks moved up to the #1 spot in the NFC w/ Monday's 37-30 win over Minnesota. They are now 10-2 SU, but that record comes with a bit of an asterisk as they are 9-1 in one-score games. That's an awful lot of good luck as there are four NFC teams (including 6-7 Dallas) that have better YTD point differentials. Bottom line is Seattle is "due" to drop one and we don't see them sweeping the season series from the Rams, who have revenge for a 30-29 loss back in Week 5, which was also in primetime. The season appeared to be getting away from the Rams when they were blown out 45-6 by Baltimore in their own Monday night appearance. But they bounced back last week with one of their most complete efforts of 2019. They beat the Cardinals 34-7 w/ a 549-198 edge in total yards. A defense, which had been badly gashed by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, held Arizona to just 3.2 yards per play. I just can't see the Rams losing B2B primetime home games. Nor can I see the Seahawks winning outright for a fourth time on the road as an underdog. From a scheduling perspective, the Rams have the edge as Seattle is working on a short week. For that Week 5 meeting, Seattle was only a 1.5-pt favorite at home. So the oddsmakers have definitely adjusted, but I think they've overreacted. Again, the Seahawks having all these close wins is simply not a sustainable blueprint for success. The Rams were a missed 44-yard FG away from taking that first meeting. They finished w/ slightly more total yards. A big difference between then and now is you can expect a bigger workload from RB Todd Gurley. The Rams defense has allowed 17 pts or less in five of the last six games, the loss to Baltimore two weeks ago being the only exception. 10* LA Rams |
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12-08-19 | Liberty v. Grand Canyon +9.5 | Top | 70-61 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
10* Grand Canyon (6:30 ET): What would your reaction be if I told you that Liberty is the team w/ the best SU record in the country? You'd probably be surprised, right? Well, it's the case as the Flames were the first team in the country to get to 10 wins w/o a loss. Tonight they put that unblemished mark on the line against Grand Canyon University. Yesterday saw FIVE unbeatens fall in College Hoops, leaving us w/ just nine left. My view is a couple more are likely to fall this week, this Liberty team being one of them. Take the points here. Looking at Liberty's 10-0 SU record, they've been favored eight times and played two non-board teams. So them being unbeaten was actually expected from the oddsmakers' perspective. The Flames have yet to play anyone of any real substance and their last two opponents - Kentucky Xian and Trinity Baptist - hardly even qualify as real College Basketball teams. While they won those two games by a combined 105 pts, not all the news was good. Guard Caleb Homesley, who is second on the team in scoring and first in assists, suffered a hamstring injury. He may not be able to go tonight. Grand Canyon is just 4-6, but they've stepped up and taken on some tougher teams like Illinois and San Diego State. Earlier this week, the Antelopes earned a 78-67 OT win over Mt St Mary's here at home. This is a holiday tournament w/ GCU as the host, so there's no better way to make an impact than by knocking off one of the nine unbeatens left in College Hoops. I'm just not a believer in Liberty's ability to remain unbeaten. 10* Grand Canyon |
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12-08-19 | Bulls v. Heat -7.5 | Top | 105-110 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
10* Miami (6:05 ET): The Heat have firmly established themselves among the top six teams in the Eastern Conference. You have to figure Milwaukee is going to finish first. But after that, the order of Miami, Boston, Toronto, Philadelphia and Indiana is anyone's guess. Something I do feel comfortable in saying is you shouldn't expect Chicago to be entering that discussion anytime soon. The Bulls foolishly thought they were playoff contenders entering this season. But it's been "same old, same ol" as they come into Sunday sporting an 8-15 SU record. Lay the points here. The Bulls lost outright as a favorite their last time out. It was at home to Golden State, one of the worst teams in the league (doesn't that still sound odd to say!). The Bulls let the Warriors shoot 53.5%. Prior to that loss, Chicago had actually won B2B games. But looking at the slew of recent opponents, this is a big step up in class. The Bulls last seven games have all come against losing teams. That includes TWO losses to Golden State. The last time they faced a team with a winning record was November 22nd. It was the Heat, oddly enough. The Bulls lost by eight - at home. At the time, that was Miami's fifth straight win. They've now won 10 of 13 overall. As a favorite, the Heat are 9-2 ATS. They are also 9-0 SU at home, 7-1-1 ATS. Boston and Philadelphia are the only other teams yet to lose at home. It would be one thing if the Heat were just winning at home. But they're outscoring opponents here by an incredible 17.1 PPG! That's several points better than the two other unbeaten teams at home. Keep in mind the Heat the entire way the last time they faced the Bulls. 10* Miami |
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12-08-19 | Ravens v. Bills +6.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 56 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Baltimore has established itself as the best team in the league in many people's eyes, including my own. However, there comes a time when the pointspread eventually catches up w/ you and for the Ravens, it was last week when they failed to cover in a 20-17 win over the 49ers. That snapped a 5-game ATS win streak, but didn't stop oddsmakers from asking them to lay a pretty big number on the road this week to a good Buffalo team. My own power rankings say this spread should be closer to a "pick 'em," so there's plenty of value on the dog. I took the Bills on Thanksgiving as they upset the Cowboys, 26-15 as a six-point road dog. In my analysis for that game, I talked about how many continue to hold Buffalo's weak scheduled against them. But the bottom line is that this team now has a top 6 point differential (+69). The defense is allowing just 15.7 PPG, fewer than Baltimore and third best in the entire league. Only once this season have the Bills allowed more than 21 pts in a game. This is a team uniquely suited to slow down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense. The Bills are 4-1 ATS as underdogs this season, winning three of those games outright. Baltimore was held to just 283 total yards last week by San Francisco and outgained substantially on a per play basis. While much will be made of the Bills defense's susceptibility to the run, they've only allowed 211 yards rushing (total!) the L3 weeks. Some of that can be attributed to being ahead and forcing the opponent to pass, but even the Cowboys' ground game could only muster 103 yards against them. Having a few extra days to prepare is also huge for this Bills defense. 8* Buffalo |
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12-08-19 | Colts v. Bucs -3 | Top | 35-38 | Push | 0 | 69 h 54 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): The Bucs have finally "woken up" and started to play better. They've won B2B games by double digits, beating the Falcons and Jaguars, both on the road. Now they try for that elusive cover at home. Prior to winning each of the L2 weeks, TB had failed to cover seven straight games. But as noted when I made them a *10* ULTIMATE POWER release two weeks ago, there's plenty of talent here and the team would have a better overall record had it not shot themselves in the foot on a regular basis. I think they'll continue their strong play at home this week. Lay the short number. Speaking of shooting itself in the foot, the Colts really let one get away last week vs. Tennessee. An Adam Vinateri FG attempt was blocked and returned for the game-winning TD. It was the Colts' fourth loss in the last five games. Vinateri won't play this week, which is probably for the best as he's been downright awful. But WR T.Y. Hilton's absence looms large. The team is 1-4 ATS w/o him as opposed to 6-1-1 ATS when he suits up. This Colts' offense hasn't done much in the way of scoring the L2 games, scoring 17 pts each time in defeat. Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS at home this year. They are the only team in the league yet to cover a game at home. Note those records include a "home game" in London. The Bucs have performed better on a per play basis this year than have the Colts. They do deserve to be the favorite here as Colts HC Frank Reich is just 3-8-1 ATS against teams w/ losing records. Against non-division foes this year, the Colts are just 2-5 SU. 8* Tampa Bay |
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12-07-19 | Suns +10 v. Rockets | Top | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
8* Phoenix (8:05 ET): It's okay to be skeptical of the Suns. After all, this is a team that's finished dead last in the Western Conference each of the last three seasons. But they are clearly improved now and what's most impressive about that is they're doing it without the services of the suspended Deandre Ayton, last season #1 overall draft choice. Right now, the Suns project to be a better than .500 team by season's end and have the league's 12th best point differential. If that holds, they could likely snap what is the league's 2nd longest playoff drought. Houston is obviously one of the "big boys" in the Western Conference and their goals are a lot different than those of tonight's opponent. After somewhat of a rough start to this season, the Rockets clearly have gotten their act together as they've won 11 of their last 15 games. James Harden and Russell Westbrook form a deadly scoring combo and the team just won in Toronto Thursday night, something that is not easy to do. But tonight marks just the 4th time this year that the Rockets have been asked to lay double digits. The previous two were against Atlanta and Golden State, the two worst teams in the league. Phoenix is a much higher class opponent. The Suns have not beaten the Rockets since April 2016, losing the last 11 head to head matchups. But all of those came when they were one of the league's bottom-feeders. Tonight is a chance to prove themselves as a legit playoff contender as they look to finish a four-game road trip at 3-1 SU. Not saying Phoenix will win tonight, but they should at least keep it close. This line is several points off from where own power rankings say it should be at. 8* Phoenix |
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12-07-19 | Virginia +28.5 v. Clemson | Top | 17-62 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 28 m | Show |
8* Virginia (7:30 ET): After what they did for me last week, how could I not come back with the Hoos here? As my *10* College Football Game of the Year last Friday, they ended what had been a 15-year losing streak to rival Va Tech w/ an outright 39-30 win as 2.5-point dogs. Thus all seven teams in the ACC Coastal have now won the division in the last 7 years. Hopefully, Virginia is not just "happy to be here" as defending Nat'l Champ Clemson awaits them in the Conference Championship Game. I'm willing to bank on that NOT being the case and will grab a HUGE number. Anyone who follows my plays knows I have no loyalty to any team. This play is clearly more about the number than what Virginia did last week. It's actually the second year in a row Clemson comes into the ACC Title Game as a four-TD favorite. They covered last year, beating Pitt 42-10, but that was an inferior foe to what they'll be facing here. Yes, the #3 ranked Tigers have destroyed everything in their path the last two months, winning seven straight by an average of more than 41 PPG. Their only ATS loss during that stretch was to FCS Wofford as they were laying 49 in a 45-point win. But Virginia is the strongest team Clemson will have faced these L2 months. It has not always been pretty for Virginia, but they've averaged over 41 PPG during a current four-game win streak. Their largest loss (in terms of margin) this season was 15 to Notre Dame and that was a game that they actually led at the half. They still ended up outgaining the Fighting Irish, but could not overcome five turnovers, one of which was a fumble returned for a touchdown. The other two Cavaliers' losses were by 7 and 9 points. As we saw last week, QB Bryce Perkins is a playmaker. Clemson doesn't need "style points" here. They just need to win. Look for the dog to stay within the number. 8* Virginia |
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12-07-19 | Georgia +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 8 m | Show |
10* Georgia (4:00 ET): What separates this game from the two other Conference Championship Games involving unbeaten teams (Big 10, ACC) is that the underdog also happens to be playing for a chance to make the College Football playoff. #4 Georgia will be in the CFP w/ a win Saturday over LSU. While that's "easier said than done," I don't think the gap between these two SEC schools is as large as the oddsmakers seem to believe. I've got the line closer to a field goal than a touchdown and that's some pretty substantial value on a side that has everything to gain. Take the points. Georgia's only loss this year was in double overtime to South Carolina. You may recall that I was on the right side of that one. However, let it be noted that the Bulldogs were -4 in turnovers in that game, negating a rather huge 468-297 edge in total yardage. So they easily could be undefeated coming into this game, just like LSU. Were that the case, this line would be a whole lot shorter. The Bulldogs' defense has a claim to be the best in the country as it gives up only 10.3 PPG (2nd best behind Clemson). It's a better defense than Alabama and the best LSU will have faced all year. Offensively, UGA is going to have to run the ball effectively here. They should considering LSU has allowed running backs to average more than 6.0 YPC the L5 games. There's no denying how good LSU is, but I just don't think they are a full TD better than Georgia on a neutral field. Obviously, it's pretty rare for Georgia to be an underdog. They are 3-0 ATS in that role under HC Kirby Smart. Remember that LSU's only two "comparable" opponents would be Bama and Auburn and the Tigers only won those games by a combined eight points. This is Georgia's third straight year playing for the SEC Title, which is a bit of an advantage as well. They also have big time revenge for an ugly 36-13 loss in Baton Rouge last year where they actually came in as a 7-point road favorite. Special teams edge goes to the underdog here as well. 10* Georgia |
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12-07-19 | UAB v. Florida Atlantic -7.5 | Top | 6-49 | Win | 100 | 62 h 28 m | Show |
10* Florida Atlantic (1:30 ET): UAB should be commended for a remarkable "rebirth." Three years ago, there wasn't even a football program! But after two years of suspending operations, HC Bill Clark has helped lead one of the great stories in College Football. Over the last three seasons, the Blazers have won 8, 11 and 9 games. This is the second year in a row they are playing for the C-USA Championship. They won it last year, beating Middle Tennessee 27-25 as a 1-pt home dog. But this year they have to travel to face Florida Atlantic, who won this game two years ago. FAU had a down year in 2018, winning only five games. But Lane Kiffin has the Owls right back where they were in 2017. Well, maybe they aren't quite as good as that team, but they have blown through the conference schedule. They are 7-1 SU in C-USA play, outscoring teams by 17.3 points per game. Since losing to Marshall on 10.18, the Owls have won five straight - all by double digits. Twice in the regular season they were a big play for me, once against Charlotte and the other against Western Kentucky. Both times they were drastically undervalued, which is again the case here. While UAB should be lauded for what it has accomplished these last three seasons, the fact is they played arguably the weakest schedule in the entire country this year. They faced only four bowl teams (Western Kentucky, Tennessee, Southern Miss, La Tech) and the only one they beat (La Tech) was dealing w/ a bunch of suspensions. Plus that was the only one of the four games that was at home. In six road games during the regular season, the Blazers averaged only 18.2 PPG. Other than Marshall, FAU's only other losses were to Ohio St and UCF, the first two games of the season. The Owls are again the class of C-USA and will demonstrate that on Saturday. 10* Florida Atlantic |
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12-06-19 | Oregon +7 v. Utah | Top | 37-15 | Win | 100 | 70 h 11 m | Show |
10* Oregon (8:00 ET): Since losing at USC on a Friday night (a result I was on the right side of!), Utah has won eight in a row - both SU and ATS - and only once during that win streak has the final margin been LESS than 25 points. But they've really not had to face many quality opponents either. Only three of the teams they played went on to become bowl eligible and none won more than seven regular season games. The one close game they did play over the L2 months was at Washington where they had to rally for a 33-28 win as three-point chalk. The Utes did not face North Division Champ Oregon in the regular season. Oregon actually wrapped up its division sooner than Utah, despite having the inferior overall record. Maybe that says something about the North, but it actually had more teams finish bowl eligible than the South did. The Ducks' two losses this year have been by a total of nine points and one of the games (season opener vs. Auburn) saw them in the lead for 59+ minutes. There is no shame in losing to Auburn nor Arizona State, who got Oregon two weeks ago in what was my Pac 12 Game of the Year. While Utah can lay claim to having beat ASU 21-3, the Ducks can claim to have beaten USC 56-24 and that was on the road. (Utah got ASU at home). Utah lost the Pac 12 Championship Game last year (10-3 to Washington), so that'll serve as extra motivation. Not to mention a win here would place them in the discussion for the College Football Playoff. But you can't discount an Oregon side that has been an underdog just one time this year (the Auburn game) and gives up only 15.8 PPG. The Utes were fortunate to extend their ATS win streak last week as they scored late to cover the 29-point spot against Colorado. Oregon will easily be Utah's toughest opponent to date while the Ducks have the confidence knowing they should have beaten a comparable Auburn team (that just beat Alabama). Take the points. 10* Oregon |
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12-06-19 | Wolves v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 127-139 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): Two records that are applicable to this matchup make little sense to me. One is that the Thunder are 0-8 ATS the last 8 meetings with the T'wolves. For most of that timeframe, OKC has been the better team. It would be one thing if they were winning and not covering, but they are also 2-6 straight up in those eight games. The other record that has me "scratching my head" is Minnesota's 7-3 SU road record this year. They are only 3-7 SU at home. Normally, you would not see a home vs. road split like that. I'm laying the points here. My guess is you're going to start to see that home vs. road split start to "even out" for Minnesota. In fact, it's already happening as Wednesday night they lost in Dallas, 121-114, even with the Mavs being in the second night of a back to back. Two key players for Minnesota are on the injured list here - Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) and Andrew Wiggins (thumb). The status of the latter seems more questionable for tonight. Monitor the injury situations, but regardless this play stands. The T'Wolves have dropped six of nine with Towns and Wiggins in the lineup and I don't like them here getting such a short number. Everyone expected Oklahoma City to drop precipitously in the standings this year due to losing both Paul George and Russell Westbrook. But they've been surprisingly competitive for HC Billy Donovan. The Thunder have a nearly identical point differential compared to the T'wolves and a slightly better net efficiency rating. So I agree with them being a favorite here. They've won 6 of the 7 times they've been a favorite this year. They are long overdue to cover a spread against Minnesota. 10* Oklahoma City |
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12-05-19 | 76ers v. Wizards +7.5 | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): The Wizards have definitely had their share of struggles (especially on the defensive end) to start the year, but I don't think the Sixers should be laying this many points. They may be undefeated at home (10-0!), but Philadelphia has gone just 5-6 on the road. They have given up more points than they've scored on the road and while they'll enter tonight on a four-game winning streak, three of those four wins were by six points or less. Take the points. Washington obviously needs to get its act together defensively if it wants to be taken seriously. They are allowing 122.9 points per game, which is easily the most in the league. That would also be the most points allowed per game by any team since the 1980's. Incredibly, there have already been seven games this season where the Wizards scored 120+ pts and LOST! Despite this, they make for a good underdog by averaging 118.9 PPG, third most in the NBA. Bradley Beal leads the way by averaging 28.9 PPG himself. The Wiz are 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency. Philadelphia will then obviously need to score a lot to cover the spread tonight. While Washington's defense is definitely questionable, there's been only one time all season that the 76ers have scored 120+ in a game. Over the L5 games, they are averaging just 103.2 PPG. There have been two previous times when Washington has lost three in a row. Both times they won and covered the next time out. Bottom line is they'll score enough to cover the number here. 10* Washington |
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12-04-19 | CS-Northridge v. Portland -4 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:00 ET): Is this line a joke? I'm being serious when asking that question. Cal State Northridge just won its first game, beating Fresno State by a single point (73-72) as seven-point home underdogs. The Matadors had opened the year 0-7 and were 0-5 ATS the first five games. Only one of those losses was by single digits. Portland isn't Gonzaga (or even San Francisco for that matter!), but the WCC contingent should win rather easily at home tonight. Lay the short number. Portland's only loss so far was down at USC where they were a 23-point dog. Since then, they've rattled off five consecutive victories, all of them coming by fairly comfortable margins. Sunday's 65-56 triumph at the expense of Incarnate Word was the first game all year that the Pilots failed to cover. The reason for the ATS loss was a slow start as the Pilots actually trailed at halftime. But they were caught laying a bigger number than they are tonight, so a similar slow start (if that even happens) wouldn't be an issue. Hopefully Portland plays well from start to finish. They certainly should. CS-Northridge is allowing 88.1 PPG and is one of the worst defensive teams in the country right now. They are 321st in defensive efficiency (there are only 353 D-I schools) and only two teams are allowing more points per game. In other words, the home team should have a big offensive night. At home, the Pilots are 4-0 SU so far, shooting 50.2% themselves while allowing an opposing FG% of just 34.2. Last year, Portland was able to beat CS-Northridge on the road. They should do the same at home. 8* Portland |
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12-04-19 | Texas Tech -1.5 v. DePaul | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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12-04-19 | Virginia v. Purdue | Top | 40-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
8* Purdue (7:15 ET): This is an interesting number as Purdue opened as the favorite, but the line has swung in Virginia's direction and I think there's a good shot the Hoos go off as the favorite at tipoff. Before you go chastising the oddsmakers for how they set the line, note that Purdue's 4-3 SU record is highly misleading as the three games they lost were all close. Most still consider the Boilermakers to be one of the best teams in America, most notably the KenPom rankings, which have them at 13th! I'll call for them to hand Virginia what would only its 4th loss since the start of last season! Virginia is 7-0 and winning games in its typical fashion. Tony Bennett's defense is allowing a minuscule 40.3 points per game so far, which is impressive even by its yearly standard. They just held Maine to 26 points (for the game!) last week. No one has scored more than 55 and the next highest point total they allowed was 46! But the competition also hasn't exactly been fierce. Note the Cavaliers are actually 0-5 ATS the L5 games because they are only averaging 55.1 PPG themselves. They may not be as stout as Virginia, but Purdue is giving up just 58.4 PPG. They are a top 10 team in defensive efficiency. This game figures to be a "rock fight." But don't discount the home court advantage. The Boilermakers have won 34 of their last 36 games in West Lafayette. A 63-60 loss over the weekend to Florida State may have dropped them to 1-5 SU L6 games vs. the ACC, but this is a massive revenge game for a five-point loss in LY's Elite 8 where Virginia had to make a last-second 3-pointer to force OT. This year, the Cavaliers are really struggling from behind the new 3-pt line, shooting just 25%! 8* Purdue |
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12-03-19 | Rutgers +3.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 60-71 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
10* Rutgers (9:00 ET): Michigan-Louisville isn't the only game I'm playing in the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge Tuesday night. While far from being the most marquee game on the slate, Rutgers-Pitt happens to offer the most value. Not sure the home team even deserves to be favored here. Though off to a 6-2 start this year, remember that the Pitt program had fallen on some real "hard times" recently. They were a combined 16-43 SU the previous two seasons. I remain unconvinced that they've taken any real significant steps. Take the points here. Pitt is playing at a very slow pace so far as only 15 teams in the country average a fewer number of possessions per game. HC Jeff Capel, now in his second season, would like to play faster. It just hasn't happened for the Panthers so far. Now they've been mostly winning, so tempo hasn't been an issue. They just held both Kansas State and Northwestern to 59 points in a Thanksgiving Weekend tournament down in Fort Myers. But if Rutgers can push the pace here and score like they have their L2 games, then Pitt is going to be in a lot of trouble here. Remember Pitt did lose as an 18.5-point favorite to Nicholls State here at home earlier in the year. They also lost by 15 to West Virginia, also at home. Rutgers has yet to play a "true" road game and it's only loss was to St. Bonaventure as an 8.5-point neutral court favorite. The Scarlet Knights have topped 80 pts in B2B games and also beat the same SF Austin team that beat Duke. The last game was an 82-57 blowout of UMass. I just don't think Pitt has the scoring to keep up here. 10* Rutgers |
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12-03-19 | Mavs -4 v. Pelicans | Top | 118-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
8* Dallas (7:35 ET): I'm not sure that the market has truly caught up to how good the Mavericks really are. Beating the Lakers by double digits Sunday night, on the road no less, certainly should have served notice. Yet the line for tonight's game with the middling Pelicans remains far too short. Dallas has won and covered seven of its last eight games, the only loss coming to the Clippers. They own the 2nd best point differential and net efficiency rating in the West. I have them #4 overall in my own power rankings. Lay the short number here. New Orleans comes in as losers of five straight, so that's another reason to be suspect of this short number. The Pelicans were just swept in a home and home by the Thunder. Both losses were close, but the Thunder came in at just 1-8 SU on the road. Dallas is 7-2 SU and ATS away from home so far. Defense has been a big problem so far in the Big Easy as the Pelicans are allowing 118.7 PPG, most in the Western Conference. That's going to be an even bigger problem tonight when facing the league's most efficient offensive team. The Mavericks are currently averaging more than 120 PPG on the road. They just beat a Lakers team that was on a 10-game win streak, so a Pelicans team that's on a five-game losing skid should be no match, especially w/o Zion Williamson. 8* Dallas |
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12-03-19 | Michigan v. Louisville -5 | Top | 43-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
8* Louisville (7:30 ET): Michigan has gone from unranked to #4 in the country. It's not just that the Wolverines were unranked to start the season - they were unranked just last week! But a stunning showing at last week's Battle 4 Atlantis, which included wins over Iowa State, North Carolina and Gonzaga, caused Juwan Howard's team to skyrocket into the Top 25. The move matches the biggest jump in the history of the poll as Kansas also went from unranked to #4 back in 1989. So now is probably as good a time as any to "sell high" on Michigan. While pollsters aren't always a reliable judge, the fact the Maize and Blue started unranked still means something. Sure, we are all guilty of a misread, but I still wouldn't consider the Wolverines a Top 10 team despite what they pulled off last week. Back in the 1st game of the season, I faded them as they failed to cover against Appalachian State. That's one of just two games Michigan hasn't covered this year. Louisville is #1 in the country, by the way! They are the fourth team to occupy the top spot in the season's first five weeks. They moved up to #1 thanks to Duke's stunning loss to Stephen F. Austin last week. Like Michigan, the Cardinals are 7-0. But the difference is that they opened the year ranked #5 in the country. This is Michigan's first "true" road game under Howard, so expect a downturn from the offensive efforts in Atlantis. L'ville is allowing just 36.3% shooting for the year. 8* Louisville |
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12-02-19 | Vikings +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:15 ET): Endless throughout the telecast of tonight's game, you are bound to hear that Kirk Cousins is 0-7 (straight up) all-time on Monday Night Football. Were Al Michaels calling the game, you might also hear he's 0-7 ATS. But what you may not be told is that Cousins hasn't ever quarterbacked for a team this good. The Vikings are 8-3 SU and own the league's fourth best overall point differential (+84). This line implies that these teams would be considered "even" on a neutral field. That's simply not the case as the Vikings have been more impressive in my eyes. Take the points. Seattle has been living dangerously. Granted, they are 9-2 SU and have a chance to move up to the #1 seed in the NFC w/ a win tonight. But the vast majority of their games this year have been close. They are 7-1 SU in one-score games this season, 8-1 if you count last week's 8-point win at Philadelphia. Only New Orleans has a higher win percentage in games decided by one score this season. The Seahawks have just one win this year by greater than eight points and it came at the expense of last place Arizona. Those who have followed my picks for any length of time know that I lean heavily on scoring differential as a reliable indicator of future outcomes. I'm just not fully buying into this Seattle team yet. Their YTD point differential is only +29, which is outside the Top 10. Teams like Tennessee (7-5) and even Dallas (6-6) have outscored their opponents by more. The Seahawks are just 1-4 ATS in their home games. The Vikings are off a bye here. Cousins is the only QB in the league w/ a higher passer rating than Russell Wilson. The Vikings also have the better defense. 10* Minnesota |
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12-01-19 | Jazz v. Raptors -2 | Top | 110-130 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
10* Toronto (6:05 ET): Despite injuries to multiple key players (Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka), the Raptors keep on winning. They're on six-game win streak entering Sunday when they'll host Utah. While the Jazz are a formidable foe, Toronto has posted the league's third best scoring differential and net efficiency rating, so I have little hesitation in laying this short number at home. Plus they could be getting both Ibaka and Lowry back tonight. Utah is in the midst of a tough five-game road trip, one that started w/ losses at Milwaukee and Indiana. They bounced back with a win over lowly Memphis on Friday, but this is now their 4th road game in 7 nights, which isn't exactly a great spot to be in. Especially since the Jazz are just 4-6 SU on the road and averaging 103.1 PPG. Also, Toronto hasn't lost at home this year! They are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS, winning by an average of almost 15 PPG! Overall, the Raptors are 9-2 ATS when favored this season. They are clearly being undervalued right now because of the injuries. Norman Powell scored a career-high 33 in Friday's 90-83 win over Orlando, so they are getting contributions from a wide variety of players. Pascal Siakam has been another main contributor. Right now, the Raptors are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. Utah actually trailed Memphis by 15 at halftime Friday. This line is just too low as the reigning NBA Champs remain an elite team despite injuries and Kawhi Leonard being gone. 10* Toronto |
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12-01-19 | Packers v. Giants +7 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -120 | 48 h 53 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): At first blush, there's really no good reason to back the Giants here. They've lost seven straight games to fall to 2-9 SU on the season. But four of those seven losses have been one-score games. Eventually, the G-Men have got to win one, right? Green Bay was humbled last Sunday night in an ugly 38-7 loss out in San Francisco. The expectation of a bounce back has turned them into a very "public side" for this week. I think it's worth a fade. Take the points. I played against the Packers last week, noting they were shaping up to be a "public dog." Bettors see that 8-3 SU record and think this team is better than it actually is. Flaws were apparent last week in San Francisco, particularly along the offensive line, which is dealing with injuries. But the bottom line is that the Packers aren't as good as their record. I've talked about this for. They have been outgained this season and their defense, which was once thought to be an improved unit, is actually dead last in the league in yards per play allowed (6.4). I thought the Giants would be a little better in 2019. The decision to bench Eli Manning in favor of rookie Daniel Jones was the correct one. What's shocking though is how RB Saquon Barkley is struggling. He's averaged just 3.5 yards per carry the L4 weeks and has not scored a TD in three straight games. Look for him to break that streak here though against the suspect Packers' defense. The Packers' offense has been held below 200 total yards in its last two road games. Look for the home dog to keep this one close in what is a very strong "anti-public fade." 8* NY Giants |
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12-01-19 | Browns v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 52 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Two weeks ago, in a game that ended w/ a much publicized brawl, the Browns beat the Steelers. It was only their seventh win over Pittsburgh since returning to the league in 1999 and the just the second in 14 tries. Cleveland was a 3-point home favorite for that game. I realize the final score was 21-7, but why are they road favorites here? I suppose a three-game win streak and the fact Pittsburgh is starting Devlin Hodges at QB play a role in that. But, to me, the Browns are back to where they were at the start of the season - overvalued. The last time Cleveland was favored in Pittsburgh was 30 years ago, Week 1 of the 1989 season and they won 51-0. That was Chuck Noll's final season! So it's been a long time since this situation presented itself. The Browns managed to sweep a three-game homestand to get back to 5-6, but last week's win was against the worst team in the league, Miami. History is simply not on Cleveland's side here. They have not swept a season series from the Steelers since 1988. Each of the last 8 times they've won the 1st meeting, they've gone 0-8 SU/ATS the second go around. They are 0-15 SU their L15 visits to Pittsburgh. The move from Mason Rudolph to Hodges is probably for the best. There's minimal distraction w/ Rudolph on the sideline. Also, the Steelers' numbers in the passing game actually go up when Hodges is under center. The number of yards per play, per pass attempt and third down conversion rate are all better. Granted it's a small sample size, but I took Hodges in his 1st career start when the Steelers ended up beating the Chargers. QB's making their 1st or 2nd career start have gone 14-4 ATS this season. The Steelers, who are 5-1 SU L6 games, have the better defense here. In addition to missing Myles Garrett, the Browns are going to be w/o LT Greg Robinson and S Damarious Randall. Pittsburgh is only w/o center Pouncey. The Steelers are 9-3 ATS as underdogs L3 seasons. 10* Pittsburgh |
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12-01-19 | Army +3 v. Hawaii | Top | 31-52 | Loss | -110 | 109 h 7 m | Show |
8* Army (11:59 ET): Everything about this situation screams "Army!" They have to win to get bowl eligible. They are coming off a bye. Before the bye, they had easy wins over UMass and VMI. Hawaii's situation could not be any more different. They are off a huge 14-11 win over San Diego State that guaranteed them a spot in next week's Mountain West Championship Game vs. Boise State. With that lookahead, the last thing the coaching staff wants to do is spend time preparing for the unique Army offense. Even before factoring in the obvious situational edge Army has, they should not be an underdog in this game. Take the points. Army won 21 games the previous two seasons, so 2019 has been a bit of a disappointment. All six losses this year have been by single digits, three of them by five points or less. Disappointment aside, this is such a favorable matchup. Not only because of the extra week to prepare for the long trip to Honolulu, but also because Hawaii's defense can be quite bad at stopping the run. The Warriors are bottom 10 in the country in yards per carry allowed and figure to have face the run 60+ times in this game. Earlier in the year, Hawaii faced Air Force and gave up 353 yards rushing on almost 7.0 YPC! Yikes! That ended up being a 56-26 loss. As if the situation couldn't be less favorable for Hawaii, the forecast is calling for high winds, which will limit their passing attack. Tip your cap to the job HC Nick Rolovich has done in his two years in Honolulu. No one expected the Warriors to make it to the Mt West Champ Game this season. But the excitement of doing so works against the team this week. Keep in mind Hawaii needed a missed FG last week to preserve the win over San Diego State. The offense has scored only 35 total pts the last two games. 8* Army |
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11-30-19 | Arizona +13.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 107 h 37 m | Show |
8* Arizona (10:00 ET): Things couldn't have possibly gone any better for Arizona State last week as they upset Oregon 31-28 as a 2 TD underdog. The win got the Sun Devils bowl eligible while simultaneously killing any shot Oregon had of making the CFP. But that result sets up this rare spot where ASU is unlikely to be able to have the same intensity for their rivalry game as they did last week. Arizona will treat this year's edition of the "Territorial Cup" as its "bowl game" as they come in at 4-7 SU. Last year, the Wildcats needed to beat ASU to get bowl eligible but lost. They'll certainly be hungry for some payback here. Take the points. Failing to make a bowl in B2B seasons is hardly how the faithful in Tucson envisioned the Kevin Sumlin era starting. But that's the reality here. The Wildcats have not covered since a 35-30 win at Colorado (were +2.5) back on October 5th. Since pulling that upset, they are 0-6 SU and ATS. While an outright win here seems unlikely, if the Wildcats can't show some pride, then Sumlin's stay here could be a short one. You can't keep getting blown out, week after week. Winning this rivalry game would at least be a nice way to end a disappointing season. While I struggle to write anything positive about Arizona here, this is more of a fade on ASU. Not only is it a difficult spot due to being off a big-time upset, but the Sun Devils have not been good as favorites. They are 0-5 ATS as chalk for Coach Herm this season including three outright losses. The split in two years under Edwards is now pretty severe. ASU is 2-8-1 ATS when favored. Getting points, they are 9-5 ATS w/ six outright wins. This is just the 6th time under Edwards that they've been favored in a Pac 12 game and they've failed to cover the last four including three outright losses this year! The Sun Devils have only had to lay more than 7.5 pts twice in 2019 and those games resulted in ATS losses vs. Sacramento State & Kent State. 8* Arizona |
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11-30-19 | Colorado +29 v. Utah | Top | 15-45 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 8 m | Show |
8* Colorado (7:30 ET): Well, Arizona was unable to get the job done last week. But you can expect more motivation from Colorado here against #6 Utah. I was impressed by the effort from Mel Tucker's team in a 20-14 upset of Washington last week where they were 2 TD home underdogs. The Buffaloes do to hit the road this week and while another upset is unlikely, it would give them bowl eligibility. Because of that, I don't see this turning into another Utah blowout. The Utes are red hot, but could be looking ahead to next week's Pac 12 Championship Game vs. Oregon. They'll win, but won't cover. Utah technically has not qualified for the Pac 12 Championship Game yet They need to win this game. Obviously, judging by the pointspread, winning seems like a formality. The Utes have won and covered seven straight since losing at USC on a Friday night back in September. That 7-game ATS win streak is currently the longest in the country. There is no doubt that this is an impressive team that has the credentials to make the College Football Playoff were they to win out. But even though six of their last seven wins have come by at least 25 points, I see this being "closer than the experts think." It's the biggest number the Utes have had to lay to any FBS opponent all season. Colorado dominated the line of scrimmage in last week's upset of Washington, running for 207 yds at 5.0 YPC. They held the Huskies to just 238 total yds, including only 32 on the ground. It was the second game in a row the much maligned Buffaloes defense allowed 14 pts or less. It's not going to be that easy here, but they enticement of a bowl opportunity should keep the underdog motivated throughout. The Buffs played a couple "stinkers" at Oregon and Washington State, but three of their other four losses have been by a TD or less. Utah is entering a game w/ some real pressure for the 1st time and I think they play this one pretty "close to the vest." They've not been a 28+ pt favorite vs. a FBS foe in the L5 seasons. 8* Colorado |
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11-30-19 | Wisconsin -2 v. Minnesota | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 100 h 8 m | Show |
10* Wisconsin (3:30 ET): This game will determine the winner of the Big 10 West and who goes on to face Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship Game. The Big 10 West was thought to be pretty wide open coming into the year, so it's not that big of a surprise to see a team like Minnesota coming from "relative obscurity" to challenge for the crown. But it also should be pointed out that the Gophers have played the easiest Big 10 schedule possible by avoiding both Ohio State & Michigan. They've been favored in almost every game, save for the loss to Iowa and a game against Penn State where they gave up over 500 yards. Wisconsin is the better team here. The Badgers are a team I once considered to be "top 5 worthy." Their season obviously changed w/ B2B weeks where they lost to Illinois as a 29-point favorite and then were blown out by Ohio State. After allowing just 29 pts total the first six games (FOUR shutouts!), the Badgers have given up 21 or more to the L5 opponents. Yet all but one win this year has come by at least nine points. They have outgained opponents by 173.1 YPG this season. Not afraid to lay the short number here as Wisconsin is 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS the L3 seasons as a road favorite. This is actually the oldest rivalry in College Football as it dates back to 1890. Minnesota snapped a 15-year losing streak last year w/ a convincing 37-15 win in Madison, a game which they came in as 11-point underdogs. I'm sure the Badgers remember and revenge will be a factor. The Golden Gophers have not won "Paul Bunyan's Axe" (trophy the teams play for) B2B years since 1993-94. This boils down to the fact that I have simply been more impressed w/ Wisconsin this year. Minnesota is still a team I'm not sure deserves to be mentioned among the top 15 nationally, even w/ their WL record. There were five different games they easily could have lost this year. 10* Wisconsin |
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11-29-19 | Utah State +4 v. St. Mary's | Top | 73-81 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
10* Utah State (11:30 ET): I'm not sure I understand this line at all. Utah State is ranked #15 and is one of 31 unbeaten teams left in the country. There really is no objective measure by which one could consider St. Mary's the better team here. The game is at St. Mary's. But last year Utah State won so convincingly on a neutral court (80-63 as 4-point underdogs), the home court advantage doesn't even matter to me. The Aggies have played a weak schedule, save for the win over LSU, but getting to 7-0 w/o stud big man Neemias Queta has to have them happy in Logan. Take the points. I had USU when the beat LSU. Granted, the win required a shocking comeback as the Aggies trailed by as many as 19 points. But that was a quality non-conference win on a neutral court (Jamaica). This is Utah State's first "true" road game of the season. But the Jamaica trip, which also included a 68-59 win over North Texas, should have them ready. St. Mary's has already lost a home game, as 18-point favorites to Winthrop. The Aggies have held five of their seven opponents below 60 points. St. Mary's just yielded a season-high 66 in a win over Lehigh last weekend. So in what promises to be a low-scoring game, taking the points seems optimal. Plus, in its first five games, Utah State had four different leading scorers while averaging over 80 PPG. The win over North Texas on Sunday marked the first time this season that the Aggies didn't score at least 80. I had them in a 32-point win over UTSA where they allowed just 28.6% shooting. I like this team quite a bit and feel they're being undervalued. 10* Utah State |
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11-29-19 | Virginia Tech v. Virginia +3 | Top | 30-39 | Win | 100 | 86 h 28 m | Show |
10* Virginia (12:00 ET): While much of the College Football world will be focusing in on the big Ohio State-Michigan game this weekend and whether or not the underdog can reverse an ugly series history in that particular rivalry, the same narrative also rings true here in the Commonwealth Cup. In fact, things have been even more one-sided here, if you can believe it. Virginia has lost to Va Tech a record 15 consecutive times with many of the recent battles being close. Last year's defeat was among the most painful as UVA blew a 4Q lead and fell in OT. Virginia came into this season w/ its eye on winning the ACC's Coastal Division. That goal will be accomplished if they can finally beat the Hokies. Despite the dreadful series history, there is some good news here for the Cavaliers. The game is in Charlottesville where they are a perfect 6-0 SU this season, winning by an average of 20 points per game. Their offensive output jumps up to 41.2 PPG here at Scott Stadium, which is well above what the average is on the road. The Hoos have been the most consistent Coastal team in 2019 and this is the first time they have been a home dog all season. The bad news is Virginia Tech comes in hot. The Hokies share the same records as UVA as both are 8-3 overall and 5-2 in conference. But the path Va Tech to get here is a little different. They've caught fire in the second half of the season, winning six of seven (only loss was by 1 pt @ Notre Dame) after suffering what was a humiliating 45-10 defeat to Duke in a Friday night home game. The Hokies are also on a 6-0 ATS run after starting 0-4 ATS. Because they're hot and have had Virginia's number, this number has already changed significantly from the time it opened. I keep coming back to "if not now, when?" for Virginia. My projections say they should be a 5-pt favorite here. I'll trust those numbers and the fact Va Tech has failed to cover 5 of its last 6 games w/ a line of 3 pts or less. 10* Virginia |
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11-28-19 | Bills +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (4:30 ET): Last year saw the Cowboys win the NFC East with a 10-6 SU record (despite only a +18 point differential). This year's team is every bit as talented, if not more so given they have a full season of Amari Cooper plus the return of TE Jason Witten. America's Team has the 4th best point differential in the league right now at +85. Yet they are stuck w/ a 6-5 SU record. If you've got a keen eye, the reason for the difference in record is easy to spot. Last year's team was a league-best 9-2 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less (lucky!). This year, they are 0-4 in such contests. Funny how those things work out! Despite only losing by 4 pts last week, to one of the league's best teams (New England), owner Jerry Jones of course had to open up his big yap. Certainly I didn't need Jones to identify that Bill Belichick is a better coach than Jason Garrett. That's pretty well understood. Missing the playoffs may very well cost Garrett his job and unfortunately for him, that's how I see things ending up. I know they were facing an elite defense last week, but the Cowboys were held to just 9 points. They face another strong defensive team this week. Buffalo has certainly taken advantage of a weak schedule to get to 8-3 SU. But look at whom the Cowboys have beaten. Five of their six wins have been against the Giants (2), Redskins, Dolphins and Lions. Those teams are a collective 9-34-1 SU! So you can't penalize the Bills for their weak schedule in handicapping this matchup. I just cannot see Dallas blowing out a team that allows only 15.7 points per game. Buffalo dominated Denver last week, winning 20-3 while allowing less than 3.0 yards per play. There's been only one game all season where the Bills allowed more than 21 points. They are 3-1 ATS as underdogs, including their own cover at New England. This is just the 2nd time they've gotten more than 3.5 pts in a game this year (NE being 1st). I expect this to be a close game and all the outside distraction this week certainly doesn't help the favorite. 10* Buffalo |
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11-27-19 | Wolves v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 113-101 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (8:35 ET): While Golden State's year-to-year decline may be unlike anything we've ever seen, there are actually TWO Western powers that have fallen off this year. San Antonio is the other and theirs is a case where the oddsmakers have been very slow to react. Betting against the Spurs is very fruitful as their 3-14-1 ATS record happens to be a league worst. Eventually though, you know there will be a point where the market begins to undervalue them. I believe that time is tonight as they are just a small favorite hosting Minnesota. Lay the number here. Despite currently being 7th in the Western Conference, the T'wolves are a slightly below average team from where I sit. They did just clobber the Hawks down in Atlanta, 125-113, as a 4.5-point favorite. But before that they'd dropped four of five - all of those losses coming at home. They actually trailed by 10 at halftime vs. the Hawks. Like the Spurs, there are legit concerns over Minnesota's defense. They also are allowing 115 PPG, which is a high number. It's strange that the T'wolves are 6-2 SU on the road and just 3-5 SU at home. I don't see their winning ways away from home continuing, however. They are just 9-51 SU all-time here in San Antonio, including 11 straight losses. From 11/9 to 11/2, the Spurs were 0-8, the worst ever losing streak under Greg Popovich. They snapped that streak w/ a 111-104 win over the sorry Knicks on Saturday. But then they reverted back to their losing ways Monday against the Lakers. Still, I don't mind that loss and neither did Popovich, who seemed pleased w/ his team's effort against one of the league's best teams. "It was the first game after a long road trip, and that's always tough," said Popovich. "All in all, I was pleased with a lot of things that I saw. We're on the right track." I'll take the coach's word for it. All three Spurs' ATS wins have come as favorites. Minnesota is 0-3-1 ATS off a DD win this year. This is a revenge game for San Antonio as they lost by 15 two weeks ago up in the Twin Cities. 10* San Antonio |
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11-26-19 | Central Michigan +12 v. DePaul | Top | 75-88 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
10* Central Michigan (7:00 ET): Central Michigan enters this game at 5-1, but hasn't yet beaten an opponent of any real substance. Three of the Chippewas' five wins came against non-board teams while the other two were at the expense of Sam Houston State and Miss Valley State. In their only loss, they were blown out at Minnesota 82-57 as 10-pt underdogs. So it easy to see why the oddsmakers would be a little skeptical of them here at DePaul Tuesday night. But my own personal power rankings indicate the spread for this game should be much lower. Take the points. DePaul is unbeaten at 6-0 w/ wins over Iowa (were 9.5-pt dogs) and most recently, Boston College. Both Power 5 wins came on the road. This is the Blue Demons' best start in 33 seasons. That 1986-87 team started 16-0 en route to 28-3 and a Sweet 16 appearance. Eventually the accomplishments of that season had to be vacated due to NCAA rules violations, but it was still probably the best DePaul team ever. I'm not ready to put this group on par w/ that one. These schools actually just met in March w/ DePaul winning a 1st round CIT matchup 100-86 as 6.5-pt favorites. That game was played right here in Chicago, so as you can see, oddsmakers have definitely boosted the Blue Demons' rating. I remain unconvinced. Central Michigan leads the country in scoring right now (99.7 PPG!) and also turns their opponents over on more than one-quarter of possessions, good for 26th. I know the Chips were held to just 57 by Minnesota, but I don't see that happening again here. They led DePaul 33-21 in the first half of that game last March. One of the Blue Demons' starting guards, Devin Gage, sprained his ankle in practice last week and his status remains in limbo. 10* Central Michigan |
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11-25-19 | Magic +4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 88-103 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:05 ET): Certainly, the Nikola Vucevic injury matters for the Magic. He is second on the team in scoring and the leading rebounder. Any time you lose a player that averages a "double-double," it hurts - literally and figuratively. PF Aaron Gordon is also out w/ an ankle injury. so the Magic are really hurting down low. But this line seems like an overreaction. We've recently seen oddsmakers do the same thing w/ the Raptors, who are still winning despite injuries. Orlando is a better team than Detroit and I'll take the points. With Vucevic and Gordon both out, one thing the Magic can continue to rely on is their defense. They are allowing just 102.9 points per game, the lowest average in the Eastern Conference. Some of that is owed to the fact they play at the slowest pace in the league, in terms of number of possessions per game. But that's also an excellent "underdog strategy" to adopt (playing slow, that is) and should suit them well here. The Magic have yet to win a road game this year, but you have to figure that first one is coming. They only lost by five at Indiana two nights ago. Detroit isn't exactly playing well right now either. They've lost six of seven w/ the only win coming against a bad Atlanta team. The Pistons were held to 90 points in a blowout loss to Milwaukee on Saturday, a game which Blake Griffin sat out for rest purposes. Griffin is expected back here, but there are other injuries the team is dealing with. At 5-11 SU, the Pistons aren't a team you can really trust as a favorite. So far, they are 2-4 SU and ATS as chalk. They have just three wins this season by more than four points. 8* Orlando |
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11-25-19 | Butler +1.5 v. Missouri | Top | 63-52 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
10* Butler (7:00 ET): In an amazing coincidence, both Butler and Minnesota are coming off wins over Wofford and Morehead State by a combined 37 points. It doesn't stop there, however. Each team beat Wofford by 19 (Butler 80-61, Missouri 75-56) and Morehead State by 18 (Butler 68-50, Missouri 70-52)! Butler won its first two games by a combined 59 pts, beating IUPUI 80-47 and New Orleans 79-53. Missouri won its first two games by a combined 55 points, beating Incarnate Word 82-42 and Northern Kentucky 71-56! The only difference then is that Butler has a win over a major conference team, 64-56 against Minnesota as a 7.5-point favorite. Missouri lost by five at Xavier as a 5.5-pt underdog. Each of those games saw the ATS result decided by one-half point. So it seems like a pretty even battle tonight in Kansas City as part of the Hall of Fame Classic. But I've got Butler rated as the better team by a few points. I like them as an underdog. Both teams have been excellent defensively. Missouri actually ranks #6 in the country right now in defensive efficiency. No opponent has shot above 38.0% against the Tigers. But four of the five opponents were likely to anyway. Butler has the edge offensively in this matchup. They have four players averaging double figures. Missouri had only two players in double figures in their last game. Through the years, Butler has excelled in these neutral court games, going 77-43 ATS. 10* Butler |
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11-24-19 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | Top | 8-37 | Win | 100 | 79 h 39 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (8:20 ET): The 49ers have certainly looked vulnerable the L3 weeks, but here they are standing at 9-1 SU coming into SNF on NBC. Those L3 games were all against division rivals that traditionally give them trouble (Arizona & Seattle). Here they'll be hosting a Green Bay team that certainly appears stronger on paper (at least compared to the Cardinals), however, when you dig a little deeper, you discover the Packers aren't nearly as dominant as their 8-2 record would seem to indicate. They've been outgained on the year and most of their wins have been nailbiters. That the Pack are coming off a bye is irrelevant to me in this situation. Lay the short number. The 49ers were lucky to cover, let alone win last week against Arizona. They scored the game-winning TD w/ just 31 seconds left on the clock, then picked up a Cardinals fumble on the final play and ran that in for a TD to make it a 36-26 final. For some that fumble return changed the ATS result (my apologies if you were caught on the wrong end of that one). However, let's not totally writeoff what the Niners did, okay? They outgained the Cards 442-266 for the game and had a huge edge in yards per play (6.7 vs. 4.3). Though the defense has suddenly allowed an average of 26 PPG the L3 wks, it still ranks second in both yards and points allowed for the year. Green Bay's defense turned in one of its better efforts two weeks ago when I cashed the Under in their game vs. Carolina as my 10* Total of the Month. But they had to hold off the Panthers on the final play (inside the 10-yd line) to preserve the 24-16 victory. Something to keep an eye on here is the trenches as Green Bay can't run the ball at all on the road (82 YPG) while the Niners are averaging 159 YPG rushing at home. At home, the 49ers are +15.4 points and 152.6 yards per game. The Packers, despite being 3-1 on the road, are -123.5 YPG! This line indicates these teams are even on a neutral field, but that's simply not the case. 10* San Francisco |
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11-24-19 | Panthers +10.5 v. Saints | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 71 h 20 m | Show |
8* Carolina (1:00 ET): Those in Carolina that were looking to make the case that Kyle Allen was a better option at QB than Cam Newton now have a little "egg on their face" after watching Allen regress mightily the last few weeks. I was always willing to concede that Allen is better than a banged up Newton. But the notion he was better than a healthy former league MVP was somewhat laughable. The Panthers now sit at 5-5 and are big dogs this week at New Orleans. This will easily be the most points they've been catching for any game this season. Despite what I just wrote about Allen, I'm willing to take the points here as I'm not nearly as high on New Orleans as the market is. The Saints crushed me last week by beating Tampa Bay 34-17. The Bucs were my Game of the the Year and I thought an outstanding play as a home dog. Unfortunately, they committed four turnovers - all of them as ill-timed as they were inexplicable. Total yardage in the game was basically even and the Bucs averaged more yards per play. Even w/ Drew Brees back, I still have some suspicions about a New Orleans team that has been fortunate to go 5-0 SU this season in one-score games. Four of those five wins were with Teddy Bridgewater at QB. But Brees was back when the Saints lost outright to the Falcons here at home two weeks ago, 26-9 as 14-pt chalk. Carolina found itself on the WRONG end of a +4 turnover margin last week against Atlanta. That and allowing a special teams TD spelled disaster for the Panthers in their own horrible home loss to the Falcons (29-3 as 4-pt chalk). But prior to last week, Carolina had suffered only one loss all year by more than eight points. New Orleans has failed to cover five of the last six times they've been a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. An Atlanta pass rush that had previously been lackluster gave Brees and the Saints fits two weeks ago. The Panthers lead the league in sacks. As far as the Carolina offense, don't forget about Christian McCaffery, who leads the league in yards from scrimmage. 8* Carolina |
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11-24-19 | Bucs +4.5 v. Falcons | Top | 35-22 | Win | 100 | 71 h 20 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): I'm not ready to give up on the Buccaneers just yet, even though SIX STRAIGHT ATS losses might seem to indicate that it's time to rethink things. I haven't been on all those losses, or even most of them for that matter. But I did have the Bucs last week as my Game of the Year and that was about as frustrating a watch as I can remember. This hard-luck team just can't seem to get out of its own way. Despite losing to the Saints 34-17 last week, TB actually finished with slightly more yards for the game and outgained New Orleans on a per play basis. But FOUR turnovers - all of them as ill-timed as they were inexplicable - proved to be their undoing. Now it's onto Atlanta where all of a sudden the Falcons seem to be pointed in the right direction. You may recall it was two weeks ago that I took the Dirty Birds plus the points in the Big Easy and the pulled off the shocker of the year, beating the Saints 26-9 as a 14-point dog. They then made it B2B division road wins as they slammed Carolina last week 29-3 (were +4.5). After producing all of seven in the first eight games (went 1-7), the Falcons' pass rush has exploded for 11 sacks these L2 games. But it's important to check the box score a little bit more. Atlanta was just the opposite of Tampa Bay last week in that they benefited from a +4 TO margin. The Falcons beating the Saints two weeks ago is was proof again that "anything can happen" in the NFL. So there's no reason to give up on the Bucs. They have a positive yardage differential for the season. On the injury front, the news is good w/ LB Carl Nassib set to return. Tampa Bay's defense is bad against the pass, but is #2 against the run w/ Nassib being their best stopper. Atlanta is going to be w/o RB Devonta Freeman and TE Austin Hooper this week. WR Julio Jones has also missed practice time. The L2 games aside, the Falcons have been far from a pointspread juggernaut themselves. They are 0-2 ATS as favorites this season, losing both games outright. Take the points. 10* Tampa Bay |
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11-24-19 | Seahawks v. Eagles | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -125 | 71 h 19 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): This was originally going to the Sunday Night Game, but was flexed out in favor of Packers-49ers (which I am also playing). This Seahawks-Eagles matchup happens to be the rare instance of the public loading up on the underdog. I suppose it's fairly easy to understand why. Seattle has covered seven straight times in the road underdog role and is a perfect 3-0 outright as a road dog this season. They are also 8-2 (Philly just 5-5) and coming off a bye. Before that bye week, they handed the 49ers their first loss of the season in an upset on MNF. But I still see some flaws w/ Russell Wilson and company. This team is extremely fortunate to have gone 7-1 SU this year in one score games. Their only win of 2019 that was by more than a touchdown came back in Week 4 at Arizona. Five of their wins have been by 4 pts or less. Their last two wins were both overtime games. On the year, they have a point differential of only +21. The Seahawks simply do not have the statistical profile of a team you'd expect to be 8-2. Down the stretch, I'm going to act accordingly and look to fade when appropriate. This is one of those times. Though Lane Johnson remains in the concussion protocol, the Eagles still should be getting more respect coming into this game. They hung tough w/ New England last week here at home, even jumping out to an early 10-0 lead. Really, it's a game they could have won. Though battling some injuries, I don't believe anything is truly "wrong" w/ the Eagles offense. The defense is allowing just 18.2 PPG at home. The last three games, the Eagles have allowed just 44 points total. 8* Philadelphia |
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11-23-19 | Utah v. Arizona +23 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 15 m | Show |
8* Arizona (10:00 ET): You'd be hard-pressed to find two teams going in more opposite directions than these two Pac 12 South rivals. Utah saw it's impressive run continue last week w/ a 49-3 beatdown of UCLA. The Utes have now won and covered six straight since suffering their only loss of the year - on a Friday night at USC. Those six wins have come by an average of 34.1 PPG! Clearly, this is a team worthy of its Top 10 ranking in the CFP (currently #7) and they appear to be on a collision course w/ fellow 1-loss team Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship Game. Speaking of Oregon, Arizona lost to them last week by score of 34-6. That leaves the Wildcats on the cusp of missing out on a bowl for a second straight season, hardly the way Kevin Sumlin envisioned his Tucson tenure starting. They are currently 4-6 SU and would need to win the next two games (at Arizona St next week) just to be bowl eligible. Given the pointspread in this game, the likelihood of an outright win is rather minute. But the pointspread is called "the great equalizer" for a reason. I see a desperate home team getting a lot of points and like the situation. I realize Arizona has failed to cover five in a row. But coupled w/ Utah's six-game ATS run, this game just feels like it's going to be tighter than expected. Getting blown out again this week would be a severe blow to the Sumlin regime, which has already seen midseason turnover on the staff. It's worth noting the Utes do give up 19.2 PPG on the road (about 8.0 more than season average) and while they only allowed 3 pts last week, UCLA certainly moved the ball on them. Not that they would have won, but five Bruins turnovers were huge in that game, especially since one was returned for a TD and another occurred at the Utah goal line. UCLA also threw an INT in Utah territory and missed a FG. When it came to covering the spread, those plays were the difference. Hopefully, Arizona plays a clean game. If they do, look for them to cover. 8* Arizona |
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11-23-19 | Oregon v. Arizona State +14 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 23 m | Show |
10* Arizona State (7:30 ET): Oregon is #6 in the latest CFP ranking and may actually have a path to the playoff were there to be some late-season chaos in the SEC. But of course, the Ducks must handle their own business between now and Selection Sunday. They've already clinched the Pac 12 North and a likely showdown w/ fellow 1-loss team Utah looms in the Conference Championship Game. It's ironic that the SEC holds Oregon's fate because the Ducks' lone loss came in the season opener vs. Auburn, a game which they led for all but nine seconds. Arizona State is just trying to get bowl eligible. This will be the fifth try for Herm Edwards team, which enters in on a four-game losing streak. Were they to lose again this week, then the Sun Devils would need to win next week's Territorial Cup against Arizona for that elusive sixth victory. They'd obviously like to avoid that as there's an ever-so-slight chance the Wildcats could also enter that game needed a win for bowl eligibility. I like this spot for Coach Herm as he is 8-5 ATS as a dog since returning to the College game w/ six outright wins. The three times he's been a DD dog (2-1 ATS, one SU win), his defense has allowed just 55 total pts. Going back to before Edwards got here, ASU is 9-2 ATS the L11 times it has been a DD dog, including SIX outright wins. Furthermore, Oregon has not had the most pleasant experiences when visiting The Grand Canyon State. They've lost three of the past four times playing either Arizona or Arizona State and were favored in all three losses. That includes their previous visit to Tempe (2017) where they were -15 and lost 37-35. Not saying the Ducks lose this one, but it's a lot of weight to lay. They were pretty fortunate to beat Washington and Washington State (both wins by 4 pts or less). Three of ASU's five losses have been by five points or less and only one (Utah) by more than 10. Sun Devils QB Jayden Daniels has still looked good during the losing skid, save for that Utah game, completing 69% of his passes w/ a 9-0 TD-INT ratio in those other three games. ASU should score enough to at least cover here. 10* Arizona State |
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11-23-19 | Tennessee v. Missouri -3.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 45 m | Show |
10* Missouri (7:30 ET): Well, Mizzou has definitely done a good job of letting us down the last two weeks. One of the two losses was somewhat understandable as they were stuck w/ a backup QB against Georgia. But after teasing his return for that game and not delivering, Kelly Bryant did return last week vs. Florida and it shockingly meant little as the Tigers were held to only six points in a 4th straight loss. The first three losses were all on the road. Now the Tigers are in the position of still needing a win just to become bowl eligible. I think they'll get it on Senior Night. Lay the short number here. Like Missouri, Tennessee comes into this game needing one more win for bowl eligibility. Same as the Tigers, the Vols are going to be favored next week against a last place conference foe. So, as far as the postseason goes, both teams remain in fine shape. But the difference is right now UT seems to have the "momentum" (hate that word!) after three straight wins. The Volunteers are 5-0 ATS the L5 games and 4-1 SU w/ the only loss coming against Alabama. Still, I think it's important to look at the whole picture and not just a small sample size. Missouri was once ranked and has been favored in all but two games. Tennessee hasn't sniffed the Top 25 and has been a dog in every SEC game this season! Things are due to turn for both teams. After scoring 31+ in each of the first six games, Missouri has scored only 27 pts total its last four games. Not to keep using that same word, but I cannot stress just how "shocking" this freefall truly is. Good for them then that Tennessee has averaged just 11.0 points and 255.3 yards per game on the road this season. The Tigers' defense is allowing just 13.5 PPG here in Columbia. So the Volunteers aren't going to score much. Not to make excuses, but LW's game vs. Florida swung on a couple bad calls that went against Mizzou. It was just a 6-3 game at halftime. They won't be falling for Tennessee coach Jeremy Pruitt being so "coy" with his QB situation (Jarrett Guarantano is getting the bulk of the snaps). 10* Missouri |
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11-23-19 | Ole Miss v. Memphis -4 | Top | 86-87 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
8* Memphis (1:00 ET): The Tigers were a team I expected to have on my "overrated" list this year, but the James Wiseman suspension has actually created a situation where they're now underrated. Penny Hardaway's team may have only managed to beat Arkansas Little-Rock by 10 points, but my suspicion is we will be getting an 'A effort' here. Saturday afternoon finds them hosting an unbeaten Ole Miss team that has yet to play a road game. Lay the (very) short number. Ole Miss' four victories this season have all come by double digits. While that may sound impressive, it's less so when you consider the Rebels were favorites of at least 18.5 points in every game. They've looked good defensively, but have yet to face a team as talented as Memphis. The last two seasons have seen the Rebels go just 7-15 in "true" road games. They've also lost 23 of 29 as underdogs. I don't expect Blake Hinson to be that much of a factor today in his season debut. Memphis is a talented team even w/o Wiseman and I expect them to show that here. They did not shoot particularly well against Little Rock, making only 38.7% of their field goal attempts, including 23.8% from three-point range. Yet they still won by 10. I think that bodes well moving forward as you can expect the Tigers to have better shooting nights. This is a chance for them to show that they remain a force, even when Wiseman is sidelined. The team has covered five straight times as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. 8* Memphis |
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11-22-19 | Cavs +10.5 v. Mavs | Top | 101-143 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:35 ET): After a surprisingly decent start to the season (4-5 SU first 10 games), the Cavs have lost five in a row while failing to cover the spread in the last four. There's really nothing "out of the ordinary" to help explain the skid, although they have faced both Philadelphia and Miami twice. Those are two of the better teams in the Eastern Conference. Tonight, the Cavs face one of the more improved teams out West, Dallas. While it may seem like the underdog is "up against it" here, it's a lot of points they're getting and we've already seen the Mavs lose outright once (to the Knicks) as a favorite of this size. In fact, the Mavs lost twice to the Knicks this year! Take the points. Dallas certainly was NOT upset in its last game as they crushed Golden State by 48. That was easily their biggest MOV of the season and their third straight win/cover to boot. Of course, beating the Warriors doesn't mean what it used to as they've been decimated by injuries It's hard to type this, but the Dubs are the worst team in the league right now! The Mavs led 44-16 by the end of the 1st quarter, Luka Doncic had 33 pts by halftime and the team ended up shooting 57.9% from three-point range. Needless to say, it's highly unlikely that they'll play that well again the rest of the season. A win like that is going to catch the eye of the oddsmakers, however. Thus, Dallas is a DD favorite for just the third time all year. The first was an outright loss to the Knicks. The other was the Golden State game. Those are obviously very different results. Dallas is just 5-6 ATS as a favorite and 0-2 ATS when coming off a DD win though. The Cavs get Tristan Thompson back tonight (sat out last game) and I expect this to go much differently than when the teams met in Cleveland earlier this month. This is all about fading a team that's off a performance it cannot possibly match. 10* Cleveland |
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11-22-19 | Utah State -1.5 v. LSU | Top | 80-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
10* Utah State (7:00 ET): This will be my second time taking Utah State this week, although this time the competition is a whole lot stiffer and they're down in Jamaica. On Monday, the Aggies (ranked #14 in the country) blew out an overmatched UTSA team 82-50 to move to 5-0 on the year. Now they face LSU, who will be the most challenging opponent to date. But USU should be up for said challenge. Like I said Monday, this team is absolutely worthy of its ranking. They deserve to be favored by more than this as it's the names of the front of the jerseys giving us value here. LSU drubbed MD-Baltimore County in its last game, 77-50 as a 17.5-pt favorite. But that was a game where the Tigers benefited from some atrocious shooting by the opposition as the Retrievers made only 5 of 33 three-point attempts. They can't rely on that happening again tonight as Utah State is shooting very well (48.7%) on its way to averaging 86 PPG. Now the competition hasn't been that tough for the Aggies so far. But this is still the 1st time since the 1986-87 season that they have scored 80+ points in their first five games. They are 21-10 SU the L3 seasons after scoring 80+ in their previous game. LSU actually trailed UMBC early due to the fact they didn't make a single basket in the first 7:10 of the game! They would eventually overwhelm the Retrievers with their size, but that won't happen here. The Tigers don't shoot well from 3-pt range (28.6%) and turnovers have been an issue so far as well (especially in the loss to VCU). Utah State has had four different players lead the team in scoring these first five games while holding the last four opponents all below 40% shooting. They are the superior side in this one and that's not fully reflected in this line. 10* Utah State |
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11-22-19 | Maryland-Baltimore County -1 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 45-62 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
8* UMBC (2:00 ET): UMBC is basically the "Appalachian State of College Hoops" in the sense that the program will always be associated w/ one famous upset. It was 20 months ago that the Retrievers did the unthinkable as they became the first 16-seed to ever beat a 1-seed, doing so at Virginia's expense. That upset is all the more remarkable considering Virginia bounced back and won the National Championship last season. In case you're wondering how UMBC did last season, they went 21-13 overall (11-5 in the America East), but did not qualify for the NCAA Tourney. This year, the Retrievers have started 4-1. The one loss came Tuesday at LSU, in emphatic fashion as the final score was 77-50. UMBC shot just 31.1% in the contest, basically giving them no chance against a team with superior athletes and size. Though it should be mentioned the Retrievers actually did enjoy an early 16-10 advantage. They held LSU w/o a field goal for the first 7:10 of the game! That they still lost by 27 shows how quickly things fell apart. Now it's on to Jamaica for a tournament and the 1st round opponent is undefeated Eastern Michigan (4-0). Like UMBC, Eastern Michigan started its season by playing several non-DI schools. All were double digit wins (by 13 or more), but nothing can really be ascertained from those. Then the Eagles did pull an upset last Saturday in Denton, beating North Texas 56-51 as a nine-point underdog. But don't let that fool you, UMBC is still the better team here. The Retrievers were 5 of 33 from three-point range against LSU, which won't be happening again, and they do a good job at forcing turnovers. EMU does not have the length of an LSU, which bothered the UMBC shooters so much in the last game. 8* UMBC |
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11-21-19 | NC State +2 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 26-28 | Push | 0 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
8* NC State (8:00 ET): When Georgia Tech was initially bet up for this Thursday night matchup, I didn't understand the line move at all. NC State, for all their issues right now, still has a chance at becoming bowl eligible (if they were to win out). As injury-laden as the Wolfpack might be right now, their issues don't run as deep as those for Ga Tech, who is experiencing the expected growing pains in moving from the triple option to a more "pro-style" offense. Last week's 45-0 loss to Virginia Tech shows the Yellow Jackets still have a ways to go. Take the underdog here. Now NC State has lost four in row themselves - both SU and ATS. But a win here would potentially set up a game w/ North Carolina next week where the winner becomes bowl eligible and the loser stays home for the postseason. The game will take place in Raleigh. While November has been ugly so far, let's note that the Wolfpack did outgain Louisville last week in a 34-20 loss, 377-326. They led at halftime. But their undoing was a -3 turnover margin. Incredibly, NC State's defense has not forced a turnover since a win over Ball State on Sept 22nd! That can't continue. Georgia Tech has been pretty generous in giving the ball away this season (1.7 turnovers per game), so look for the Wolfpack's turnover-less streak to end here. That'll be key to victory. Georgia Tech is just 2-8 and has nothing left to play for this season. Their offense is averaging just 16.5 PPG and they got steamrolled last week here at home, 45-0. Virginia Tech outgained them 451-132 in what was a major step back for HC Geoff Collins' first year in Atlanta. While the Yellow Jackets have typically owned this ACC rivalry (12-3 SU L15), those were better teams they were putting on the field. This team is last in the country in red zone efficiency. NC State has won five straight non-division ACC contests and the motivation of becoming bowl eligible is the difference in this one. Georgia Tech has been favored only one time this year vs. a FBS opponent. 8* NC State |
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11-21-19 | Charlotte v. Appalachian State -3.5 | Top | 55-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
8* Appalachian State (7:00 ET): An outright win here by Charlotte would make it three straight upsets for them and I don't see that happening. The last two games have seen the 49ers beat Davidson 71-58 (+10) and Wake Forest 67-65 (+2), but both of those upsets took place at home. The team's only prior road trip resulted in a five-point loss to James Madison (the season opener). App State has played twice the number of games (6) as had Charlotte and after an ugly performance Monday at UNC-Greensboro, they'll be eager to bounce back. Lay the short number. These two Tar Heel State schools are separated by less than 120 miles and they've met rather regularly through the years. This will be the 1st matchup since 2016, but also the 10th since 2001. Charlotte has taken the previous four, but none of the players from that last meeting are still around and the coaching staffs are different as well. Sunday's win over Wake Forest, which required overtime, makes the 49ers prone to a letdown here. The win snapped a 13-game losing streak to ACC opponents. The team has still lost 22 of its last 27 road games. Appalachian State is battle-tested in its own right as they just played a mini-Tournament in Greensboro. Things didn't end well w/ a dreadful shooting night (29.1 FG%) against the hosts, but the Mountaineers did hold UNC Greensboro to 32.1% shooting as well. Since losing the season opener to Michigan (a game where we cashed plus the points), ASU has not allowed more than 62 pts in any game. Having also dropped their most recent home game (last Friday), there will be no shortage of motivation for the home team tonight. 8* Appalachian State |
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11-21-19 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Washington State -7.5 | Top | 85-77 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
8* Washington State (7:00 ET): Omaha is not only playing its third straight road game, but also its second in three days and it's a long trip from Dayton, OH (where they were Tuesday) to Pullman, WA. Seeing as the Mavericks have dropped all three road games this year - by an average of 18 PPG - it's pretty difficult to like their chances here tonight. Washington State has shown signs of improvement following the dreadful 11-21 campaign last season. This is one of those games the Cougars will need to take advantage of, as they figure to be an underdog most nights this season. Wazzu's season started w/ a 31-point win over Seattle here in Pullman. Then, it was an ugly shooting night at Santa Clara, a game they lost 70-62. It was a six-minute stretch in the second half - where they were 0 of 8 from the field - that killed their chances there. While the Cougars did not cover against Idaho State in their return home Sunday, they did at least turn in another solid defensive effort, holding the Bengals to 61 points. An injury to PG Jaylen Shead isn't great, but this is arguably the weakest opponent that WSU will face all season. Omaha did not defend well against Dayton, allowing the Flyers to shoot almost 58% for the entire game. It was their second straight game allowing 80 or more points. In addition, the Mavericks have not shot the ball well on the road this year, averaging just 40% from the field. 1st year HC Kyle Smith has a deep team here in Pullman as eight players are averaging double digit minutes. So the Shead injury may not be that big of a deal. CJ Elleby is still the team leader in points at 20.0 per game. The home team certainly has enough to win this game by a comfortable margin. 8* Washington State |
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11-21-19 | Xavier v. Towson +9.5 | Top | 73-51 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
8* Towson (7:00 ET): This is a live dog we've got on our hands Thursday and not just because Xavier comes in at 0-4 ATS. Towson just played Florida really tough (lost by only 6 in Gainesvile) and despite what the pollsters have to say about it, we believe the Gators are a better team than the Musketeers. Xavier might be #18 in the AP Top 25 right now, but they don't even make the Top 45 in our own power rankings. Among the teams currently in the Top 25, the Musketeers appear to be the most overrated. Definitely take the points in this 1st Rd matchup of the Charleston Classic. While Xavier is 0-4 ATS, they are also 4-0 straight up and that's the record the coaching staff cares about. Still, the last two games have been very tight as they beat Missouri by five in overtime and then Missouri State by only three. Though Missouri State is the preseason favorite to win the MVC, it was a game the Musketeers were expected to win by 13.5 points. The Bears' 1-3-1 zone defense gave Xavier all sorts of fits as they could only make 5 of 22 three-point attempts. But three-point woes were not new for this team. They were 3 of 21 from behind the arc against Missouri and are shooting just 20.6% there for the year. Remember the line was moved back this year. Xavier is clearly struggling to adjust. Towson has permitted its first four opponents to shoot just 27.3% from behind the 3-pt arc, so expect those Xavier struggles to continue. Towson led Florida with just 5:46 remaining before going cold from the field. I know the tendency is to view the Gators as a disappointing team right now, but they came into the year ranked #6 in the country! Towson may only be 2-2 SU, but those two losses were by a total of 10 points. They've had a different leading scorer in each game. 8* Towson |
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11-20-19 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Memphis -14.5 | Top | 58-68 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:00 ET): I have to say, coming into the year, Memphis figured to be more of a fade for me than a take. But with a loss (to Oregon) already on their resume and this whole James Wiseman debacle playing out, might the Tigers actually now be (gasp) underrated? Penny Hardaway's team rebounded nicely from that loss to Oregon by blowing out SWAC member Alcorn State, 102-56. That was their first game w/o Wiseman, who has been ruled ineligible by the NCAA. As we saw against Alcorn State, this can be a good team even w/ Wiseman sidelined. Lay the points here. Now Arkansas Little-Rock is no Alcorn State. The Trojans can be a competitive team as they've shown Memphis in the past. Over the last six meetings, ALR is 5-1 ATS even though they've lost every game straight up. The last two years have seen them fall by 8 and 10 points. Both times they were getting 14 from the oddsmakers. Already this year, the Trojans have pulled one upset, winning 67-66 at Missouri State as a 12.5-point dog. They also covered at Illinois State, their only SU loss. But this game is obviously a big step up in class from previous opponents. It should be pointed out that Memphis' loss to Oregon was a de facto road game (played in Portland). So there was no shame in losing there. This is clearly a talented team w/o Wiseman and I expect that to show Wednesday night. Something that Little Rock does NOT do well is shoot the three. They are hitting just 26.9% from behind the arc, which simply won't cut it in a game like this. The only concern w/ Memphis is FT shooting, but they should have a big enough edge here that won't matter. 10* Memphis |
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Bryan Power ALL Sports Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-04-20 | Virginia Tech +7 v. Virginia | Top | 39-65 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
01-03-20 | Ohio -7.5 v. Nevada | Top | 30-21 | Win | 100 | 48 h 13 m | Show |
01-02-20 | Montana v. Southern Utah -3.5 | Top | 60-58 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
01-02-20 | Raptors +6 v. Heat | Top | 76-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
01-02-20 | Tennessee v. Indiana +2.5 | Top | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
01-02-20 | James Madison v. NC-Wilmington +3.5 | Top | 64-60 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
01-01-20 | Utah State -7 v. UNLV | Top | 53-70 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
01-01-20 | Baylor v. Georgia -4 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
12-31-19 | Temple -2 v. UCF | Top | 62-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
12-30-19 | Seton Hall -1 v. DePaul | Top | 74-66 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
12-30-19 | Western Michigan +3.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
12-29-19 | Falcons v. Bucs | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
12-29-19 | Browns v. Bengals +3 | Top | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
12-29-19 | Saints v. Panthers +14 | Top | 42-10 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
12-28-19 | Clemson v. Ohio State +2.5 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 3 m | Show |
12-28-19 | Nets +9.5 v. Rockets | Top | 98-108 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
12-28-19 | CS-Northridge v. Boise State -8 | Top | 72-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
12-28-19 | Iowa State v. Notre Dame -3.5 | Top | 9-33 | Win | 100 | 97 h 40 m | Show |
12-28-19 | Central Michigan +20 v. Purdue | Top | 62-97 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
12-27-19 | 76ers v. Magic +3 | Top | 97-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
12-27-19 | Michigan State -3.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 76 h 0 m | Show |
12-26-19 | Knicks v. Nets -7 | Top | 94-82 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
12-26-19 | Miami-FL -6 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 0-14 | Loss | -104 | 53 h 12 m | Show |
12-25-19 | Pelicans v. Nuggets -9.5 | Top | 112-100 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 3 m | Show |
12-25-19 | Clippers v. Lakers -2 | Top | 111-106 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
12-23-19 | Packers v. Vikings -5 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 11 m | Show |
12-23-19 | Georgia State +8.5 v. SMU | Top | 76-85 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
12-22-19 | Chiefs v. Bears +7 | Top | 26-3 | Loss | -133 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
12-22-19 | Raiders v. Chargers -6.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -120 | 65 h 27 m | Show |
12-22-19 | Saints v. Titans +3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
12-21-19 | Rockets v. Suns +6 | Top | 139-125 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
12-21-19 | Kansas State -1.5 v. St. Louis | Top | 63-66 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
12-21-19 | SMU v. Florida Atlantic +3.5 | Top | 28-52 | Win | 100 | 97 h 42 m | Show |
12-21-19 | Texans v. Bucs +3 | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 94 h 6 m | Show |
12-20-19 | Liberty v. Towson +7 | Top | 66-54 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
12-19-19 | Montana State v. CS Bakersfield -4 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
12-18-19 | Cal Poly +11 v. CS Sacramento | Top | 56-57 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
12-15-19 | Ohio State v. Minnesota +8.5 | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
12-15-19 | Jaguars +7 v. Raiders | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 50 h 44 m | Show |
12-15-19 | Bucs v. Lions +4 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 39 m | Show |
12-15-19 | Seahawks v. Panthers +7 | Top | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 39 m | Show |
12-14-19 | Thunder +7 v. Nuggets | Top | 102-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
12-14-19 | CS Sacramento v. Santa Clara -7 | Top | 58-60 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
12-13-19 | Pacers -6 v. Hawks | Top | 110-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
12-12-19 | Northern Iowa v. Grand Canyon +6 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
12-12-19 | Jets +17.5 v. Ravens | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -130 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
12-11-19 | Hawks v. Bulls -5 | Top | 102-136 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
12-10-19 | Butler v. Baylor -5 | Top | 52-53 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
12-10-19 | Wizards -1.5 v. Hornets | Top | 107-114 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
12-09-19 | Pistons +2 v. Pelicans | Top | 105-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
12-09-19 | Columbia +11.5 v. Duquesne | Top | 54-90 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
12-08-19 | Seahawks v. Rams +1 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 76 h 13 m | Show |
12-08-19 | Liberty v. Grand Canyon +9.5 | Top | 70-61 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
12-08-19 | Bulls v. Heat -7.5 | Top | 105-110 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
12-08-19 | Ravens v. Bills +6.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 56 m | Show |
12-08-19 | Colts v. Bucs -3 | Top | 35-38 | Push | 0 | 69 h 54 m | Show |
12-07-19 | Suns +10 v. Rockets | Top | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
12-07-19 | Virginia +28.5 v. Clemson | Top | 17-62 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 28 m | Show |
12-07-19 | Georgia +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 8 m | Show |
12-07-19 | UAB v. Florida Atlantic -7.5 | Top | 6-49 | Win | 100 | 62 h 28 m | Show |
12-06-19 | Oregon +7 v. Utah | Top | 37-15 | Win | 100 | 70 h 11 m | Show |
12-06-19 | Wolves v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 127-139 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
12-05-19 | 76ers v. Wizards +7.5 | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
12-04-19 | CS-Northridge v. Portland -4 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
12-04-19 | Texas Tech -1.5 v. DePaul | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
12-04-19 | Virginia v. Purdue | Top | 40-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
12-03-19 | Rutgers +3.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 60-71 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
12-03-19 | Mavs -4 v. Pelicans | Top | 118-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
12-03-19 | Michigan v. Louisville -5 | Top | 43-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
12-02-19 | Vikings +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
12-01-19 | Jazz v. Raptors -2 | Top | 110-130 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
12-01-19 | Packers v. Giants +7 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -120 | 48 h 53 m | Show |
12-01-19 | Browns v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 52 m | Show |
12-01-19 | Army +3 v. Hawaii | Top | 31-52 | Loss | -110 | 109 h 7 m | Show |
11-30-19 | Arizona +13.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 107 h 37 m | Show |
11-30-19 | Colorado +29 v. Utah | Top | 15-45 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 8 m | Show |
11-30-19 | Wisconsin -2 v. Minnesota | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 100 h 8 m | Show |
11-29-19 | Utah State +4 v. St. Mary's | Top | 73-81 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
11-29-19 | Virginia Tech v. Virginia +3 | Top | 30-39 | Win | 100 | 86 h 28 m | Show |
11-28-19 | Bills +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
11-27-19 | Wolves v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 113-101 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
11-26-19 | Central Michigan +12 v. DePaul | Top | 75-88 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
11-25-19 | Magic +4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 88-103 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
11-25-19 | Butler +1.5 v. Missouri | Top | 63-52 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
11-24-19 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | Top | 8-37 | Win | 100 | 79 h 39 m | Show |
11-24-19 | Panthers +10.5 v. Saints | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 71 h 20 m | Show |
11-24-19 | Bucs +4.5 v. Falcons | Top | 35-22 | Win | 100 | 71 h 20 m | Show |
11-24-19 | Seahawks v. Eagles | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -125 | 71 h 19 m | Show |
11-23-19 | Utah v. Arizona +23 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 15 m | Show |
11-23-19 | Oregon v. Arizona State +14 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 23 m | Show |
11-23-19 | Tennessee v. Missouri -3.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 45 m | Show |
11-23-19 | Ole Miss v. Memphis -4 | Top | 86-87 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
11-22-19 | Cavs +10.5 v. Mavs | Top | 101-143 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
11-22-19 | Utah State -1.5 v. LSU | Top | 80-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
11-22-19 | Maryland-Baltimore County -1 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 45-62 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
11-21-19 | NC State +2 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 26-28 | Push | 0 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
11-21-19 | Charlotte v. Appalachian State -3.5 | Top | 55-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
11-21-19 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Washington State -7.5 | Top | 85-77 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
11-21-19 | Xavier v. Towson +9.5 | Top | 73-51 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
11-20-19 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Memphis -14.5 | Top | 58-68 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 30 m | Show |