Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-05-19 | Rockets +3.5 v. Raptors | 107-95 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Raptors in a similar spot at home last week against the Celtics but then went ahead and faded them in Sunday's overtime loss in Detroit. Toronto will have Kawhi Leonard back at its disposal tonight but I'm not sure that will be enough. The Rockets have won five games in a row, scoring at least 115 points in all five contests. Sunday's game wasn't really as close as the final score indicated in Boston as the Rockets let up in the fourth quarter. They won't be afforded that luxury on Tuesday night as the Raptors present a bigger challenge. With that being said, I like catching points with a team playing as well, and with as much confidence as the Rockets. Take Houston (10*). |
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03-05-19 | Bulls +7.5 v. Pacers | Top | 96-105 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Indiana at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Bulls as they continue to play well despite most believing they're in 'tank mode'. Chicago has gone 5-2 ATS over its last seven games and has won four games in a row straight-up on the road. While the Bulls rank only 19th in the league in pace rating over their last five games, the Pacers have been far worse, ranking 29th. In terms of offensive rating, the Bulls sit just one spot behind the Pacers over that same stretch, ranking sixth. After a terrific run, the Pacers have now gone 1-3 straight-up and ATS over their last four games. The Bulls have grabbed the cash in three straight and five of the last six meetings in this series and I look for them to hang tough again tonight. Take Chicago (10*). |
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03-04-19 | Clippers +4.5 v. Lakers | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers plus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers at 10:35 pm et on Monday. Everything seemed to come unglued for the Lakers on Saturday night in Phoenix and now their chances of reaching the playoffs are all but gone. Meanwhile the Clippers are in the thick of the playoff picture sitting six games over .500 and with only two losses over their last six games, with both of those coming in altitude in Denver and Salt Lake City. Both of these teams are top 10 in pace rating over their last five games, with the Clippers leading the way in a tie for fifth in the league in that department. While the Clips have lagged a bit offensively, not making the most of that pace they've been playing at, they catch a favorable matchup here with the Lakers ranking 25th in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. By contrast, the Clippers rank an impressive sixth in that category. Not surprisingly, there's no home court advantage to speak of here with both teams calling Staples Center home. In fact, the 'road' team has won four straight meetings in this series. Take the Los Angeles Clippers (10*). |
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03-03-19 | Raptors v. Pistons +4.5 | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Toronto at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Pistons on Sunday as they host the Raptors in Auburn Hills. Detroit ranks last in the league in pace rating over its last five games but the slow play has actually been working for it. Note that the Pistons have won eight of their last 10 games overall. They also check in sporting a solid 18-13 home record. Over their last five contests, the Pistons rank second in the league in offensive rating and sit just one spot below the Raptors in defensive rating, ranking 11th. Toronto is certainly rolling along right now, but the Raps have been far from invincible on the road, where they've lost 11 games this season. The Pistons actually took the lone previous matchup in this series this season, delivering a 106-104 win in Toronto back in November. Take Detroit (10*). |
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03-02-19 | Lakers -6.5 v. Suns | 109-118 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. We cashed a ticket fading the Suns last night as the Pelicans rallied to win by double-digits right here in the desert. There's little reason to expect anything different on Saturday night as the highly-motivated Lakers challenge the lowly Suns off a hard-fought home loss against the Bucks last night. Phoenix has few redeeming qualities. Not only does it have only 12 straight-up victories this season, it has gone just 26-37 ATS. None of the three previous meetings between these two teams this season have been close, with the Lakers winning all three games by double-digits. Note that over their last five games, the Suns check in 25th in the league in offensive rating and 29th in defensive rating. They have done a nice job pushing the pace, ranking ninth in pace rating over that time frame, but the Lakers have been even better, ranking fifth in the league. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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03-01-19 | Pelicans -4.5 v. Suns | 130-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Friday. Not all that concerned with the status of Anthony Davis in this one. If he plays, we'll consider it a bonus. The fact is, I expect the Pelicans to roll past the Suns, who are coming off their first win in a long time last time out against Miami. The Suns currently rank 28th in the league in both offensive and defensive rating over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Pelicans appear poised to take advantage, ranking second in the league in pace rating over that same stretch. Coming off a narrow loss against the Lakers in Los Angeles two nights ago, look for the Pelicans to bounce back in the desert on Friday night. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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02-28-19 | Jazz +7 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Denver at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. The Nuggets are certainly rolling along right now, winners of five games in a row to move to an impressive 42-18 overall this season. I do expect them to face a serious challenge on Thursday night, however, as they host the Jazz. Utah continues to battle for playoff positioning, currently sitting sixth in the Western Conference. The Jazz just wrapped up a perfect 2-0 homestand last night which was much needed after dropping a couple of close ones on the road at Golden State and Oklahoma City. I like the way they've battled and believe they can hang here in Denver, where they lost 103-88 much earlier in the season. I do think they're a different team now and I like the way the spot sets up here as they hit the road for this one-gamer before returning home to host the Bucks on Saturday. Utah's pace of play may handicap it a bit in this particular matchup, but the Jazz have made up for it, ranking second in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. Take Utah (10*). |
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02-28-19 | Warriors v. Magic +6.5 | 96-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Golden State at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Magic are coming off a disappointing loss to the Knicks at MSG two nights ago which came on the heels of a stunning upset in blowout fashion in Toronto on Sunday. We won with Orlando in that win over the Raptors, and we also won fading the Warriors in their loss to the Miami Heat last night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Orlando here. Note that the Magic rank second in the league in defensive rating over their last five games while ranking fifth in offensive rating over the same stretch. They're also second in assist-to-turnover ratio over that same period. While the Warriors obviously pose some challenges, I believe the upstart Magic will be up for it. Take Orlando (10*). |
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02-27-19 | Pelicans v. Lakers -5.5 | 119-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over New Orleans at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Lakers are coming off a disheartening loss in Memphis two nights ago, after which Lebron James made some harsh comments regarding teammates that may or may not be 'distracted' by the playoff push. Take from that what you will but I do expect to see the Lakers bounce back as they host Anthony Davis and the Pelicans on Wednesday night. Of course, New Orleans just defeated Los Angeles four days ago, and did so without the services of Davis. We last got involved with the Pelicans last week, fading them in Indiana, where they ultimately lost by 15 points. It's certainly been a tough stretch for the Lakers lately, but they've actually played only one home game since Lebron James returned from injury and the result was a 111-106 win over the Rockets coming out of the All-Star break. I'll lay the points in what is a strong motivational spot for King James and co. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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02-27-19 | Warriors v. Heat +9 | Top | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Golden State at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Heat may be struggling on the heels of nine losses in their last 11 games but they did give the Warriors all they could handle in a narrow two-point loss, on the road no less, a little over two weeks ago, and I look for them to hang tough on Wednesday night as well. Miami can ill afford to let its slide continue for much longer as it currently sits in 10th place in the Eastern Conference, a game-and-a-half back of the eighth and final playoff spot. Knowing they have to travel to Houston for another extremely tough matchup tomorrow night, I do think we'll see the Heat's best effort against the Warriors here. Golden State is coming off an 11-point win in Charlotte on Monday but has still failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven contests. Call it a lull, or call it whatever you want, but the fact is the Warriors are an elite team, not an elite bet - in fact, they've been one of the worst bets in the league since the start of last season. Take Miami (10*). |
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02-26-19 | Celtics v. Raptors -4 | Top | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Boston at 8 pm et on Tuesday. We won by fading the Raptors on Sunday afternoon as they were in a clear letdown spot at home against the Magic coming off Friday's emotional (close) win at home against Demar Derozan and the Spurs. The Raps lost that game against the seemingly overmatched Magic outright, in blowout fashion no less. Here I’ll switch gears and back Toronto as it hosts a big game against the rival Celtics. There’s not a lot separating these two squads talent-wise even if the standings say otherwise. The Celtics have taken two of the previous three meetings this season. We've actually won with both sides in this matchup this season. The Raps have a rested Kawhi Leonard for this one and I’m confident they’ll be back up for it after Sunday’s no show against Orlando. Expect a competitive game but I'll lay the short number. Take Toronto (10*). |
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02-24-19 | Magic +9.5 v. Raptors | 113-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Toronto at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. On the heels of seven straight wins, the Raptors find themselves in a letdown spot on Sunday afternoon as they host the Magic. Toronto's win over San Antonio on Friday was an emotional one as they hosted Demar DeRozan for the first time since he was dealt for Kawhi Leonard in the offseason. The Magic are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games and capable of hanging tough here, noting they've split two meetings with the Raptors this season, with their lone loss coming by just two points. Take Orlando (10*). |
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02-23-19 | Pistons v. Heat UNDER 206 | 119-96 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Miami at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in South Beach on Saturday night. The Pistons continue to show out well across the board. Entering last night's action they ranked sixth in the NBA in defensive rating over their last 10 games. The Heat have actually been even better over that same stretch, ranking sixth in the league. Also playing in our favor is the fact that both of these teams rank in the bottom third in the league in terms of pace rating over their last 10 contests. This is a low total by today's NBA standards, but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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02-23-19 | Blazers v. 76ers -2 | 130-115 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Portland at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. Too much respect is being given to the Trail Blazers in this matchup on Saturday afternoon. Portland is coming off back-to-back wins, keyed by a blowout win over the mighty Warriors prior to the All-Star break. But the fact is, the Blazers are just 11-15 SU on the road this season. They rank 20th in the league in pace rating over their last five games while the 76ers rank ninth in the same category. While the Blazers do show out well in terms of both offensive and defensive ratings over that same stretch, the 76ers have been even better. This is an awfully early start for a west coast team. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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02-22-19 | Pelicans v. Pacers -5.5 | 111-126 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana minus the points over New Orleans at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I absolutely believe the Pacers can frustrate the Pelicans all night long on Friday as these two teams come out of the All-Star break in much different positions. The Pacers actually rank dead last in the league in terms of pace rating over their last five games. I don't think that's a bad thing as they prepare to face the Pelicans here. Note that Indiana ranks second in the league in defensive rating and top 10 in offensive rating over that same stretch. Meanwhile, the Pelicans check in bottom half of the league in both categories over that period. Take Indiana (10*). |
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02-22-19 | Wizards +5.5 v. Hornets | 110-123 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the Wizards in their last game before the break as they hung tough against the Raptors in Toronto. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here as they stay on the road to face the Hornets on Friday night. Washington should be comfortable pushing the tempo in this one, noting that the Wizards rank number one in the league in pace rating over their last five games. They're quietly top 12 in the NBA in offensive rating over that same stretch. Their defensive play leaves a lot to be desired, but let's face it, so does the Hornets'. Charlotte ranks just two places ahead of Washington in terms of defensive rating over their last five contests. Take Washington (10*). |
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02-21-19 | Kings +12 v. Warriors | 123-125 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Kings as they come out of the All-Star break and face the Warriors in Oakland. Sacramento has quietly been pushing the tempo lately, ranking fifth in the league in pace rating over the last five games. Their offensive rating hasn't been great over that stretch but I see this as a fine bounce-back spot against a Golden State squad that ranks 18th in defensive rating over their last five contests. The Kings aren't ones to back down from a challenge. While they've gone winless in three tries against the Warriors this season, those three losses have come by a combined 10 points, including a one-point setback the last time they played here in Oakland. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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02-21-19 | Rockets v. Lakers OVER 233 | 106-111 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. Oddly enough, the Rockets haven't been among the league leaders in pace over the last five games, ranking tied for 24th in the league in that department over that stretch. I'm not sure it matters here - I still like the 'over'. That's because the Rockets will be facing a disjointed Lakers defense that ranks 29th in the league in defensive rating over that same five-game stretch. Meanwhile, the Rockets rank third in the league in offensive rating over the last five contests. Given the short pointspread, the oddsmakers do think the Lakers can stay competitive in this game and I tend to agree. With that in mind, I'm anticipating a track meet at Staples Center on Thursday night. Take the over (10*). |
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02-17-19 | Team LeBron v. Team Giannis OVER 311 | 178-164 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Team Lebron and Team Giannis at 8 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Rising Stars Game on Friday night and I see no reason not to go right back to the well with the same play in Sunday's All-Star Game. The premise is the same. The two teams are loaded with offensive talent, and in this age of the NBA, we can only anticipate a track meet. There's really no incentive to play much defense in this game. The NBA has become a true offensive showcase and this is the 'grand daddy of them all' so to speak. Expect the losing squad to find its way well into the 150's in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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02-15-19 | World v. USA OVER 290 | 144-161 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Team USA and The World in the NBA Rising Stars Game at 9 pm et on Friday. I believe this total should be set north of 300 points to be completely honest. Track meets have become the norm in this game over the years and the 2019 edition should be no different. Both squads are loaded with talent and perhaps more importantly, athleticism. Last year's game was actually relatively low-scoring, reaching just 279 points as Team USA turned in a disappointing effort. Guys like Kuzma, Mitchell and Tatum are back and should be highly motivated to make amends. Expect a competitive affair all the way, which lends itself to a high-scoring affair in this setting. Take the over (10*). |
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02-14-19 | Thunder -4.5 v. Pelicans | 122-131 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Thunder as they try to stay hot heading into the All-Star break. It's worth noting that the straight-up winner has gone an incredible 31-2 in the Thunder's last 33 games overall. In other words, the spread simply hasn't played a factor. I do expect Oklahoma City to outlast the struggling Pelicans here. Note that the Thunder rank second in the NBA in pace rating and sixth in offensive rating over the last five games. They should be able to overwhelm a Pelicans squad that ranks 16th and 26th respectively in the same categories over the same time frame. This has been a relatively tight series with the last four meetings all decided by six points or less. With that being said, we're also dealing with a relatively low pointspread here, especially when you consider the disparity between these two teams in the standings. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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02-14-19 | Hornets v. Magic UNDER 216 | 89-127 | Push | 0 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Orlando at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Magic are red hot right now, having won six of their last seven games overall. However, off a perfect three-game homestand I can't help but think a letdown could be in order. Note that the Hornets actually rank 30th in the league in terms of pace over their last five games. The Magic on the other hand are in a tie for 10th in that department over the same time frame but again a letdown could be on the way here. What has been most impressive about the Magic's recent surge has been their defensive play. They rank third in the league in defensive rating over the last five games, sitting behind only the Pacers and Bucks. Both the Hornets and Magic do rank top 12 in terms of offensive rating over the last five games but both drop off considerably when you stretch that range out to the last 10 games. Take the under (10*). |
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02-13-19 | Wizards +11 v. Raptors | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors may be the vastly superior team in this matchup as far as overall records go but the Wizards are actually just a half-game behind the Raps in terms of ATS marks. Toronto loaded up prior to the trade deadline, acquiring Marc Gasol in a blockbuster deal with Memphis. There's no question it's going to take Gasol some time to get acclimated, however, noting that he has split time with Serge Ibaka, playing off the bench, since joining Toronto. Washington put together back-to-back wins before dropping a nine-point decision in Detroit last time out. That result should have served to shake off most potential Wiz backers leading up to this one. The Raptors do check in having won five games in a row SU, but are just 3-5 ATS over their last eight contests. They rarely blow out the Wizards and I don't see it happening here either. Take Washington (10*). |
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02-13-19 | Nets v. Cavs UNDER 221 | 148-139 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in the Nets last game in Toronto on Monday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears here as Brooklyn makes the short trip to Cleveland to face the Cavs. While it's true the Nets rank number one in the league in pace rating over the last five games, the Cavs rank 27th and should be able to set the tempo to some extent here at home. While Brooklyn has been playing at a fast pace, its offensive efficiency has lagged as it ranks 26th in the league in that category over that same five-game stretch. The Cavs have been even worse in that regard, ranking 28th over that time frame. Both previous meetings between these two teams this season have easily stayed under the number we're working with tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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02-13-19 | Bucks v. Pacers UNDER 219.5 | 106-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Indiana at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. While the Bucks are known for their efficient, up-tempo offense, which has certainly busted out with some consistency recently, I believe the oddsmakers have this one priced right with the Pacers checking in as a small home underdog and anticipate a competitive affair all the way. I've been more impressed by both teams' defensive efficiency lately. In fact, over the last 10 games the Bucks rank first in the league in defensive rating while the Pacers check in ranked fourth. As I mentioned, the Bucks have been pushing the pace, ranked third in the league in pace over that same 10-game stretch but the Pacers are at home here, and should be able to impose their will to some extent and it's worth noting that they rank 25th in the league in pace over that same time frame. Indiana also ranks a less than impressive 21st in the league in offensive rating over that stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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02-12-19 | Lakers v. Hawks OVER 236 | 113-117 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. This may look like a high total at first glance, but I actually believe it could be even higher. The Lakers last two games have produced 257 and 263 total points. Meanwhile, the Hawks have given up 129 and 124 points over their last two games and have seen two of their last four contests total at least 249 total points. I just don't believe either of these teams will enter this game thinking they can do anything to slow the opposition. The Hawks are allowing opponents to shoot better than 48% from the field here at home this season. The Lakers have given up an average of over 128 points per game on 51% shooting over their last five contests. This shapes up as a track meet. Take the over (10*). |
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02-11-19 | Nets v. Raptors OVER 226.5 | 125-127 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Nets have really picked up the pace lately, playing among the quickest tempos in the NBA in recent weeks. The Raptors on the other hand are coming off a relatively low-scoring affair against the Knicks at MSG on Saturday night - Marc Gasol's first game with his new team (he came off the bench playing only 18 minutes). I don't believe the Raps will shy away from pushing the pace here and they should get plenty of open looks against a sagging Nets defense. Until Gasol gets fully acclimated I do think the Raps will be somewhat vulnerable defensively. The last meeting between these two teams produced 227 total points back on January 11th. My simple angle here is that pace and offensive efficiency alone should get this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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02-10-19 | Heat v. Warriors UNDER 222 | 118-120 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Golden State at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' as the Warriors return home to host the Heat on Sunday night. Miami certainly isn't one of the league's elite offense teams, averaging right around 105 points per game this season. This isn't an ideal spot for the Heat as they play their third straight road game and face what will be a highly-motivated Warriors squad coming off a poor showing in Phoenix, albeit in a winning effort on Friday night. Keep in mind, none of the last four meetings in this series have eclipsed the total we're dealing with tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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02-09-19 | Hornets v. Hawks OVER 228.5 | 129-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. The last two meetings between these two teams in Atlanta have gotten well into the 240's and I'm anticipating another 'defense-optional' affair on Saturday night. The Hornets are allowing just shy of 115 points per game on the road this season, yielding just under 48% shooting to the opposition. Meanwhile, the Hawks have been torched for around 118 points per contest at home, allowing opponents to shoot better than 48% from the field. Both teams are coming off poor showings, but both were also in tough situations with the Hornets playing the second of back-to-back nights and the Hawks returning home following a seven-game road trip. Take the over (10*). |
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02-08-19 | Heat v. Kings -2.5 | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Miami at 10:05 pm et on Friday. I like the Kings here after they made moves to strengthen their team prior to the trade deadline. Unlike previous years where Sacramento was a seller, we saw it do some buying this year and I expect the players to get an emotional boost from that. Note that the Kings are already an impressive 17-11 straight-up at home this season. Here, they'll benefit from staying home for a fifth consecutive game. The Heat did win in Portland two nights ago, but that was their first victory in their last four games. They've actually posted three straight road wins but I believe some regression is in order. We've seen Miami post a strange home-road dichotomy this season, going 11-16 in South Beach but 14-11 on the road. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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02-08-19 | Bucks v. Mavs +8 | Top | 122-107 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Friday. The Bucks are one of the hottest teams in the league right now and certainly look unstoppable on the heels of five consecutive SU and ATS victories. However, here they'll be playing their seventh game in the last 13 nights in a seventh different city. The Mavs are no slouches here at home, where they own one of the strongest home court edges in the NBA, having gone 19-7 SU. Like the Bucks, the Mavs have also been tearing it up ATS, having reeled off five straight victories and gone 7-0-1 ATS over their last eight contests. The Bucks haven't won a game here in years. In last season's meeting on this floor the Mavs won by 32 points. Take Dallas (10*). |
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02-07-19 | Lakers v. Celtics -8.5 | 129-128 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Celtics as they host the unraveling Lakers on Thursday night. Los Angeles is obviously in complete limbo right now with the trade deadline coming up in a few hours. Maybe the roster remains intact, or maybe it will be looking for players off the street to court a team on Thursday night in Boston. Either way, I'm confident we see the Celtics show up and win this one going away. Boston is rolling along nicely right now and the beat goes on against the disjoined Lakers. Take Boston (10*). |
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02-07-19 | Raptors -9 v. Hawks | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. No doubt the Raptors have been watching what the Bucks have been doing lately and after picking up a statement win in Philadelphia on Tuesday night, I look for them to build on that performance with another rock-solid effort against the Hawks on Thursday night. Atlanta is back home following a seven-game road trip that took it all over the map. The Hawks should be a little 'fat and happy' off back-to-back wins to close out that trip. Keep in mind, those victories came against the lowly Suns and Wizards. Take Toronto (10*). |
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02-07-19 | Wolves +2 v. Magic | 112-122 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Orlando at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. While these two teams boast similar overall records, I do feel there's a class difference that isn't being properly reflected in the line. The T'Wolves have been coming out on the wrong end of some close games lately, but I'm confident they do get it figured out tonight in Orlando. The Magic simply ran out of gas in Oklahoma City on Tuesday and I think they're a little worn down right now, showing some real inconsistency of late. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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02-06-19 | Rockets v. Kings +2.5 | 127-101 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Houston at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm willing to bet against the Rockets winning three road games in a row on Wednesday night in Sacramento. Houston is coming off relatively lopsided victories in Utah and Phoenix but now heads to Sacramento where the Kings are playing excellent basketball. The Kings check in 17-10 straight-up at home this season, including a perfect 3-0 on their current homestand. It would be easy for the Rockets to look past the Kings to a return home after this one. That's especially true when you consider Houston already defeated Sacramento by 20 points in their lone previous meeting this season. The Rockets may own the superior SU record but the Kings have been a much better bet this season, going 31-22 ATS. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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02-05-19 | Magic v. Thunder UNDER 223 | 122-132 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Okahoma City at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. When these two teams met last week they combined to score a whopping 243 total points in a Thunder victory in Orlando. Perhaps the Magic were in an up-tempo mood after facing the likes of the Hawks, Wizards and Rockets in three of their four previous games heading into that one. Since then, we've seen back-to-back 'under' results from Orlando, moving their o/u mark to 23-30 on the season. The Thunder are back home following a three-game road trip out east that saw all three contests go 'over' the total (including that aforementioned win over the Magic). Orlando shoots below 44% as a team on the road this season and doesn't shoot particularly well from beyond the arc. The Thunder have held the opposition to 33.8% shooting from three-point range at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-04-19 | Nuggets v. Pistons +4 | 103-129 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Denver at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Bettors will almost certainly be off the Pistons on Monday night after they absolutely imploded in the fourth quarter against the Clippers on Saturday afternoon at home. Here, they catch a favorable matchup, however, as they remain at home to wrap up a four-game homestand against the Nuggets. Denver is coming off a hard-fought one-point win at Minnesota on Saturday night. Now the Nuggets will be playing their fifth game in the last eight nights, with those five games coming in five different cities. Take Detroit (10*). |
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02-03-19 | Clippers v. Raptors OVER 229.5 | 103-121 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. The Raptors have had plenty of time to stew over Thursday's double-digit home loss to the Bucks and I expect to see them come out guns' blazing on Sunday afternoon as they aim to jump all over a Clippers squad playing its second the second game of back-to-backs out east. With that being said, the Clips have generally been fast starters this season, averaging nearly 30 points in the first quarter (and the second as well). They rallied back from a big halftime deficit to defeat the Pistons in Auburn Hills yesterday afternoon and I don't expect them to back down as a double-digit underdog in Toronto on Sunday. The last time these two teams met back in December the Clippers didn't bring their 'A' game and ultimately fell by 24 points. Expect a more competitive affair this time around and I believe that lends itself to a high-scoring game. Take the over (10*). |
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02-02-19 | Rockets v. Jazz -7 | 125-98 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Houston at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The fact that this is a back-to-back spot for the Rockets has obviously been factored into this line. I actually feel the number is warranted, however, with Houston in a brutal spot here playing its second of back-to-backs in elevation. We won with the Jazz last night as they pulled away for a cover against the Hawks. I expect more of the same from Utah here. The fact of the matter is, the Rockets aren't a very good team right now. They have just four wins in their last eight games, with only one of those coming on the road, that against the lowly Knicks by just four points. Houston has fallen to 23-27-1 ATS on the season and owns just 10 straight-up victories in 24 road games. Utah is rolling along with 12 wins in its last 15 games. The Jazz have been extremely consistent at the offensive end of the floor over that stretch and should certainly have their way with the defense-optional Rockets. Note that Utah took the last meeting on this floor by 27 points back in early December. Take Utah (10*). |
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02-01-19 | Rockets v. Nuggets OVER 227 | 122-136 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Denver at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Rockets don't play a great deal of defense at the best of times and now they head out on the road to play at altitude on Friday night in Denver and I'm anticipating a track meet. There hasn't been much of a difference between the way the Rockets have played defensively on the road or at home this season, allowing opponents to shoot better than 47% from the field. Likewise, the Nuggets shoot 47% as a team here at home, where they average over 111 points per game. These two teams just met back on January 7th and the result was a 125-113 Rockets victory in Houston. I do expect the Nuggets to return the favor here but rather than lay the points, I'll play the 'over' as the Rockets should play with plenty of fire following an ugly home loss to the undermanned Pelicans on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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02-01-19 | Hawks v. Jazz -11.5 | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Atlanta at 9:05 pm et on Friday. We cashed a ticket fading the Hawks in their most recent game - a blowout loss in Sacramento on Wednesday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as Atlanta remains on the road and plays at altitude in Salt Lake City on Friday night. The Hawks have to be a little road weary as they play their fifth game of this trip. They haven't been home in over a week while the Jazz are coming off a brief two-game trip that saw them win in Minnesota and lose in Portland. The Jazz are 15-9 at home this season and should have their way with a Hawks squad that gives up over 118 points per game on the road. The Hawks have taken two straight meetings in this series but don't count on a repeat performance here. Take Utah (10*). |
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01-31-19 | Mavs v. Pistons -2 | 89-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Dallas at 7 pm et on Thursday. We won (some pushed) with the Mavs in this same matchup last Friday night in Dallas but I won’t hesitate to switch gears this time around as the scene shifts to Auburn Hills on Thursday night. The Mavs did notch a very rare road victory last night but will be hard-pressed to follow it up with another one here against the revenge-minded Pistons. There’s no shame in the Pistons most recent loss, that coming against one of the league’s best teams in the Milwaukee Bucks. Solid value with the Pistons at home as a short favorite here. Take Detroit (10*). |
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01-30-19 | Hawks v. Kings -5.5 | 113-135 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Atlanta at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. This is an excellent spot to back the Kings as they return home to host a Hawks squad that is coming off an outright upset win over the Clippers in Los Angeles two nights ago. The Hawks are still not a good team and Sacramento has done a tremendous job of taking care of business against losing opposition this season, particularly at the betting window, where it has gone 16-5 ATS. The Kings aren’t going to land on most bettors’ radar on this night and I believe we’re being asked to lay a very reasonable number on their home floor. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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01-29-19 | 76ers -6.5 v. Lakers | 121-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Tuesday. Tough spot for the undermanned Lakers here as they try to follow up a win over the lowly Suns but take a considerable step up in class against the 76ers. This is obviously a big building spot for the Sixers as they will continue on to face the Warriors in Oakland on Thursday night. After dropping their last game in Denver, they can ill afford another setback here as things could really start to snowball. I don’t often lay this many points on the road, but I believe the spot warrants a play with Philadelphia welcoming back Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler on Tuesday night. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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01-25-19 | Pistons v. Mavs -4.5 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Detroit at 8:35 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with the Mavericks in this spot as they host the Pistons. Dallas has shown a strong home-road dichotomy this season, going 17-6 here at home compared to 4-20 on the road. I like the fact that the Mavs will have played six of their last nine games here at home while Detroit will be playing its seventh of its last 10 games on the road. The Pistons are coming off a win in New Orleans on Wednesday night, but keep in mind, that's a Pelicans squad that is currently playing without Anthony Davis. Detroit opened its current road trip with a blowout loss against the Wizards. Take Dallas (10*). |
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01-25-19 | Wizards v. Magic -3.5 | 95-91 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. These two teams may have similar straight-up records but I don't think there's any question the Magic carry more optimism and upside. Also consider that the Wizards are in a letdown spot here, even off a loss last night against the Warriors. That was a nationally-televised game and one that the Wiz were competitive in. Here, I don't believe Washington will be competitive, where it has gone a miserable 5-18 SU on the road this season. Also note that the Magic have taken the last two meetings on this floor by exactly nine points. Washington is being outscored by nearly 10 points per game on the road this season. Take Orlando (10*). |
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01-24-19 | Pelicans +12 v. Thunder | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Thunder have won three straight games both SU and ATS but I believe they're laying too many points in this spot. Keep in mind, Oklahoma City is outscoring the opposition by less than seven points per contest here at home this season. They haven't defeated the Pelicans by double-digits since way back in December of 2016. Mind you, the Pelicans are without Anthony Davis right now and have dropped four of their last six games overall. Over that stretch they've lost just one game by double-digits, however. The Thunder have not fared particularly well in this pointspread range at home in recent years. I'm confident we'll see the undermanned Pelicans stay inside the inflated number tonight. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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01-16-19 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Warriors | 140-147 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors are fresh off a record-setting offensive performance in a rout in Denver last night but now find themselves in a tough spot returning home on no rest to host a surging Pelicans squad. Keep in mind, Golden State still isn't a good bet on the season having gone 19-25 ATS. The Pelicans haven't been much better but have been sharp lately, going 4-1 ATS over their last five games. They're coming off a key road win over the Clippers in Los Angeles. They haven't been able to stack many road victories on the campaign, but are actually getting outscored by barely over a single point away from home. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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01-16-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -1.5 | 129-109 | Loss | -118 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Utah at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this spot sets up for the reeling Clippers, who check in having dropped three games in a row both SU and ATS. The Jazz are rolling, fresh off four consecutive wins but have actually dropped the cash in their last two games, and those came against the lowly Bulls and Pistons. Motivation will be high for the Clippers as they have also dropped three straight meetings against the Jazz. Their last win in this series did come right here in Los Angeles where they've gone 14-8 SU this season. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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01-16-19 | Spurs v. Mavs +1 | 105-101 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over San Antonio at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Spurs were all the talk last week, capping off an incredible run with a thrilling double-overtime win over the Thunder on national TV. Since then, they've dropped back-to-back games at Oklahoma City and at home against Charlotte. I'm not convinced they'll regain their footing here on Wednesday night as they hit the road to face the upstart Mavs in Dallas. The Mavs are also coming off a loss but it was a close one (by five points) against the Warriors so I'm confident in their ability to bounce back here, noting that they've gone 16-5 straight-up at home this season. Take Dallas (10*). |
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01-15-19 | Warriors v. Nuggets +2 | 142-111 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. Like the value being offered with the Nuggets as a small home underdog against the Warriors on Tuesday night. Denver actually has the better straight-up record and the vastly superior ATS record in this matchup. Not only that, but the Nuggets have taken five of the last nine meetings in this series. The Warriors are getting plenty of support, however, as they come in on a four-game winning streak. Still they've only managed to go 2-2 ATS over that stretch, dropping the cash in both road games. Denver has been a little uneven lately, and comes off back-to-back ATS losses, but remains a profitable 4-3 ATS over its last seven contests. Take Denver (10*). |
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01-09-19 | Pacers +6.5 v. Celtics | 108-135 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. With a blowout loss in Toronto suffered on Sunday night still fresh in their minds, I don't expect the Pacers to suffer any sort of letdown following last night's bounce-back win in Cleveland. Indiana has had some success here at TD Garden, coming away with straight-up victories in its last two stops. Also note that the Pacers took the lone previous meeting in this series this season by a single point in Indiana back in November. The Pacers check in having won seven of their last eight games overall. The Celtics are suddenly rolling, having won three straight games on their current homestand. Keep in mind, those wins came against the T'Wolves, Mavs and Nets. Note that the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 28-0 ATS in the Celtics last 28 games. If you're playing the Pacers, you might want to throw a little bit at the moneyline as well. Take Indiana (10*). |
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01-07-19 | Spurs v. Pistons +3.5 | 119-107 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over San Antonio at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with the Pistons as they catch the Spurs in a big-time letdown spot coming off a perfect homestand. San Antonio was certainly up for a three-game homestand featuring showdowns with the Celtics, Raptors (and Kawhi Leonard) and the Grizzlies. Now the Spurs will need to get back up for a trip out east to face the lowly Pistons. That's a tall task in my opinion. Detroit has struggled lately but still owns a winning record at home and will be high on motivation following a narrow five-point loss on this floor against Utah. The last time these two teams met at the Palace of Auburn Hills, the Pistons rolled to a 93-79 win last December. Take Detroit (10*). |
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01-03-19 | Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 226 | 135-134 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. None of the last six meetings in this series have even come close to sniffing the posted total we're working with on Thursday night, but I'm not one bit surprised we're dealing with such a high number. It's the nature of today's NBA, with totals regularly reaching into the 220's and 230's. The Rockets continue to roll along without Chris Paul among others, but look at who they've faced lately. Houston's current five-game winning streak has come at the expense of the Spurs, Thunder, Celtics, Pelicans and Grizzlies, with four of those games coming at home. Elite defensive squads are few and far between in that mix. Meanwhile, the Warriors exploded for 132 points last time out, but that was against the lowly Suns. The 'under' has actually cashed in three of their last four contests. Take the under (10*). |
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01-02-19 | Hawks +5 v. Wizards | 98-114 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Hawks were actually victorious in their last trip to the nation's capital last April, as double-digit underdogs no less. They've also managed to split a pair of meetings in Atlanta this season. While they may own an inferior overall record, they've actually performed better than the Wizards against the spread. That's not to mention the fact that they've gone 5-2 SU and ATS over their last seven contests. There's little reason to have much faith in the Wizards right now as they've won just three times in their last 12 games. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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12-25-18 | Lakers v. Warriors -8.5 | 127-101 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'm not sure this is going to be the barn-burner that the TV execs are hoping for on Christmas Night. The Lakers have certainly held their own this season, exceeding most expectations to this point. Meanwhile, the Warriors haven't been nearly as dominant as we've been accustomed to seeing and have quite simply been an awful bet so far this season. With that being said, I believe we're being asked to lay a relatively short number with the defending champions here. This is without question a game that the Warriors have had circled as they look to make a statement against King James and the Lakers. Los Angeles has been a different team away from Staples Center and I look for it to struggle again in this spot. Take Golden State (10*). |
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12-25-18 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 222.5 | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 44 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Boston at 5:35 pm et on Tuesday. This matchup was a bit of a dud on the opening night of the regular season as Boston cruised to a 105-87 victory, not coming anywhere close to eclipsing the posted total. Now we're dealing with a considerably higher total but is it warranted? I believe it is. Both teams bring excellent form to the table, at least from an offensive standpoint. The 76ers took full advantage of a Raptors squad that was missing Kawhi Leonard on Saturday night, scoring 126 points in an eventual blowout victory. Meanwhile, the Celtics 'got right' with a 119-103 win over the Hornets on Sunday. The 76ers didn't have Jimmy Butler the last time these two teams met. Look for a track meet on Christmas Day in Beantown. Take the over (10*). |
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12-22-18 | Suns v. Wizards -5.5 | 146-149 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Phoenix at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Suns are on a bit of a roll right now, having won four games in a row, with three of those coming in underdog fashion. I'll go the other way on Saturday, however, as they stay on the east coast to face what should be a highly-motivated Wizards squad. Washington has lost six of its last seven games, but it's worth noting that five of those losses came on the road. They're 8-6 at home this season while the Suns check in a miserable 3-13 on the road. Note that Phoenix has won just once here in Washington since 2014. Take Washington (10*). |
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12-21-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -1 | 120-107 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Milwaukee at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Bucks have won three games in a row while the Celtics have dropped back-to-back contests, including a stunning home defeat at the hands of the lowly Suns last time out. I expect to see Boston bounce back in this Eastern Conference showdown, however. Note that the Celtics are still 9-4 at home this season. The Bucks are 7-6 on the road compared to a dominant 14-3 at home. This has been a home-dominated series, with the Celtics having gone 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Celtics are a little banged-up right now but I'm confident they'll rise to the occasion against one of the NBA's best teams on Friday night. Take Boston (10*). |
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12-21-18 | Pacers -2 v. Nets | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Friday. The Pacers are coming off back-to-back losses but both of those games could have gone either way, including a narrow defeat in Toronto on Wednesday night. I expect to see Indiana bounce back in Brooklyn on Friday night, where it hasn't lost a game in over two years. The Pacers are a quality road team, checking in at 9-7 away from home this season. Meanwhile, the Nets are coming off seven straight victories but keep in mind, they've been favored in three of their last four games and a short underdog in the other contest, at home against the Lakers. Brooklyn is still just 7-10 at home this season. Take Indiana (10*). |
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12-19-18 | Spurs v. Magic +1 | 129-90 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over San Antonio at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the Magic as they host the surging Spurs on Wednesday night in Orlando. While San Antonio has been playing better lately, the fact is, the Magic are still the superior ATS squad in this matchup. Orlando has also turned things around again, heading into this one off back-to-back home victories. Note that the Magic have already defeated the Spurs once this season, coming away with a seven-point road win back in early November. Orlando continues to be undervalued in the betting marketplace and we'll take advantage once again here. Take Orlando (10*). |
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12-14-18 | Warriors v. Kings +8.5 | 130-125 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Golden State at 10:05 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the points with the Kings on Friday night as they host the Warriors in Sacramento. Golden State may own the better straight-up record in this matchup but the Kings have been the considerably stronger bet this season, going 17-10 ATS compared to the Warriors 13-16 ATS mark. Note that the first meeting between these two teams this season went the Warriors, but by only a single point, in Oakland back on November 24th. Sacramento is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. The Kings are a winning team at home this season and I don't believe they'll back down from this challenge on Friday night. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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12-14-18 | Knicks v. Hornets -11 | 126-124 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte minus the points over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with the Hornets as they aim for their fourth straight win on Friday night. The Knicks are reeling and this doesn't figure to be a favorable bounce-back spot as they've allowed the opposition to shoot better than 48% from the field on the road this season. Meanwhile, Charlotte is knocking down 47.6% of its shots at home. Despite getting outshot from beyond the arc and outrebounded, the Hornets still took the first meeting between these two teams this season by 12 points in New York. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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12-11-18 | Blazers +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Portland has already gone into Houston and won this season and even last April we saw the Blazers battle the Rockets in an eventual two-point loss on this floor. Now the Blazers have plenty of motivation as they've lost four straight games on the road but have to feel confident after delivering back-to-back wins (and covers) on their home floor. The Rockets were in a nice revenge spot in Dallas on Saturday but still came up short, suffering their third straight loss. Their offense is by no means functioning at a high level right now and I don't see a turnaround coming here. Note that Houston has been one of the league's worst bets this season, going 9-16 ATS. Take Portland (10*). |
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12-08-18 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -2.5 | 111-88 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. I liked what I saw from the Grizzlies last night as they were in a tough spot in New Orleans but still managed to rally for a big road victory. Meanwhile, the Lakers faced a Spurs squad looking for quick revenge in San Antonio and absolutely buckled in the fourth quarter in a double-digit loss. I like the Grizzlies to keep it rolling on Saturday night as they return home, where they've gone 8-3 this season. The Lakers have five road wins to their credit this season but those have come against the Suns, Blazers, Kings, Heat and Cavs - all teams that are inferior to the Grizzlies. Memphis went through a bit of a lull in late-November but outside of that it has been consistently good this season, going 15-9 ATS overall. That's a stark contrast to the Lakers 10-14-1 ATS mark. Take Memphis (10*). |
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12-08-18 | Nets v. Knicks -3 | 112-104 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. It took a miserable shooting performance from the Raptors for the Nets to prevail in overtime last night, snapping an eight-game losing streak in the process. Now the Nets make the quick trip to Manhattan to face the Knicks at MSG, where they haven't managed a victory since March of 2017. New York is coming off back-to-back losses, first falling on a last-second three at home against the Wizards and then getting blown out in Boston. I do like the bounce-back spot here at home, where they've defeated the Nets by 21, 16 and 19 points in their last three meetings. Brooklyn owns the slightly better overall record but the Knicks have actually been better ATS, going 13-12-1 compared to the Nets 12-15 mark. Take New York (10*). |
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12-08-18 | Rockets -2.5 v. Mavs | 104-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Dallas at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the short number with the Rockets as they try to salvage one victory on their current three-game road trip. It hasn't been a good trip for Houston so far as it has been held to 91 points in back-to-back losses in Minnesota and Utah. I do expect a strong bounce-back performance here, however, as they face an opponent they've been beating up on for years. Yes, Dallas did take the first meeting between these two teams this season but it needed to shoot the lights out to do so, hitting 54% overall and 50% from beyond the arc. Note that the Mavs are expected to be without Dennis Smith Jr. on Saturday. He has been a key contributor this season, averaging over 13 points and four assists per game. Dallas has been terrific at home this season, going 10-2, but I do believe some regression is in order. Note that the Mavs haven't defeated the Rockets at home since April of 2016. Take Houston (10*). |
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12-07-18 | Raptors -9 v. Nets | 105-106 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Friday. I think the loss earlier in the week at home against Denver keeps the Raptors focus where it needs to be on Friday as they head out on the road for a sandwich game against the Nets. After this one, the Raps will head back home for a big showdown with the Bucks on Sunday. Toronto has played exceptionally well on the road this season, going 10-2 straight-up, winning by an average margin of over eight points per contest. The Nets limp into this one on the heels of eight straight losses. On their current homestand they've come up just short against the Cavs and Thunder. They played a near perfect game against Oklahoma City for three quarters on Wednesday but simply couldn't close the deal. Note that they hit nearly 42% of their three-point attempts in that game. I don't expect them to approach that level of efficiency against a Raptors squad that has held the opposition to 31.2% shooting from beyond the arc on the road this season. Take Toronto (10*). |
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12-05-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +11.5 | Top | 129-105 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Golden State at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors own the far superior overall record this season, having gone 16-9 straight-up compared to the Cavs ugly 5-18 mark. With that being said, Cleveland has been the better bet, going 12-11 ATS in contrast to the Warriors 11-14 ATS record. Golden State got off to a tremendous start on Monday night in Atlanta and ultimately cruised to a 17-point victory. It is worth noting, however, that the Warriors were actually even with the Hawks over the final three quarters of that game. The Cavs snapped a four-game losing streak with a 99-97 win in Brooklyn last time out and are now 5-3 ATS over their last eight contests. They've gotten a nice boost from rookie Collin Sexton, not to mention the addition of Alec Burks by trade, as he has scored in double figures in three straight games since joining the Cavs. This is a clear sandwich spot for the Warriors as they'll head to Milwaukee for a date with the Bucks on Friday. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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12-04-18 | Blazers v. Mavs -2 | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Portland at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Blazers may have the slightly better overall record but the Mavs have been far superior ATS, going 14-7 compared to Portland's 11-12 mark. That's not to mention the fact that Dallas has posted a terrific 9-2 SU record at home while the Blazers check in 5-6 on the road. And of course current form sees the Mavs playing far better than the Blazers right now, winners of eight of their last 10 games overall while Portland has dropped five of its last six contests. Bettors aren't as quick to dismiss the Mavs as they were earlier in the season, which is why we're seeing them favored in this particular matchup. With that being said, I like the way the spot sets up for Dallas as it stays home off a day of rest while the Blazers travel after playing in San Antonio on Sunday. Take Dallas (10*). |
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12-03-18 | Nuggets v. Raptors -6 | 106-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Denver at 7:35 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the points with the Raptors on Monday night as they host the red hot Nuggets. Denver comes in riding a five-game winning streak, both SU and ATS. In fact, the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 15-0 ATS over the Nuggets last 15 contests. I just don't like the spot for the Nuggets here as they head across the continent following a 113-112 victory in Portland on Friday night. The Raptors make the short trip back from Cleveland, where they won by 11 points on Saturday night. Toronto hasn't suffered a loss since falling in overtime in Boston back on November 16th (we won with the Celtics in that game). The Raps have gone just 4-4 ATS over their last eight games but only once over that stretch were they favored by less than seven points, as is the case here. They won by eight points as a 5.5-point road favorite in Memphis last week. Take Toronto (10*). |
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11-30-18 | Pelicans v. Heat +3 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The public is quick to back the Pelicans on the road on Friday night, and why not? After all, the Heat are reeling, losers of eight of their last 10 games overall. With that being said, I like the spot for Miami, noting that New Orleans has gone a miserable 2-9 straight-up on the road this season and has just one win over its last five games, that coming against the dysfunctional Wizards. New Orleans has taken back-to-back meetings in this series, but Miami is actually 5-1 ATS in the last six matchups between these two teams. This is a big spot for the Heat coming off an embarrassing loss against the Hawks to open this homestand. Take Miami (10*). |
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11-28-18 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 218 | Top | 89-128 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' in Minnesota on Wednesday night. The Spurs needed everything they had to get past the lowly Bulls by a single point in Chicago on Monday night. It did mark their seventh straight game scoring over 100 points and I don't think they'll have much trouble eclipsing that number again on Wednesday. Note that San Antonio has scored 117 and 112 points in two meetings with the T'Wolves since the start of 2018. Minnesota has seen the 'under' cash in seven straight games. While they have allowed just 96 and 95 points over their last two games, those contests came against the Cavs and Bulls - two of the league's weakest teams. They'll face a much tougher challenge here, although based on the pointspread being in their favor, I'm certainly anticipating a competitive game from start to finish, and that should lend itself to a high-scoring affair in this case. The first meeting between these two teams this season totaled 220 points. I'll call for more of the same here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-27-18 | Knicks v. Pistons -7 | Top | 108-115 | Push | 0 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Knicks are riding a season-high three-game winning streak with all three of those wins coming in outright underdog fashion. Keep in mind, they were at least eight-point underdogs in all three of those contests. We're dealing with a shorter number here at the time of posting, and I believe we're getting value with the Pistons, who are also playing some terrific basketball right now. Detroit has won six of its last eight games overall, going 7-1 ATS over that stretch. The Pistons will benefit from staying home for a third straight game here, coming off a double-digit win over the Suns on this floor two nights ago. While Detroit checks in 6-3 at home this season, New York has won just four times in 12 road games. Note that the Knicks have already lost games by 11, 23, 13, 16, 25 and 14 points on the road this season. Take Detroit (10*). |
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11-21-18 | Kings +9.5 v. Jazz | 119-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Utah at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Kings on Wednesday night as they aim to begin their short two-game road trip on a winning note in Utah. Sacramento not only has the better overall record in this matchup, it also owns the superior ATS mark. The Kings are 10-7 ATS while Utah has gone just 8-9 ATS this season. The Kings just endured their first winless road trip last week, dropping games in Memphis and Houston. They did respond with a win over the Thunder back at home and I believe their motivation level will remain high for this one before heading to Oakland to face the Warriors. The Jazz will be back home for the first time following a five-game road trip. They've dropped three of their last four games both SU and ATS. Utah will simply be looking for a win here, not necessarily to win by margin. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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11-21-18 | Blazers +6 v. Bucks | 100-143 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I believe too much weight is being placed on the fact that the Blazers are playing on back-to-back nights, leaving the Bucks overvalued in this spot on Wednesday night. Keep in mind, Portland is coming off back-to-back road wins, improving to 5-3 SU away from home this season. It has already defeated Milwaukee once this season, by a 118-103 score at home on November 6th. While the Bucks have taken four of the last five meetings in this series, only two of those victories came by more than three points and one of those came nearly two years ago. Having gone just 2-2 in their first four games on this road trip, the Blazers will be eager to secure another win here before wrapping up the trip against the Warriors in Oakland. Take Portland (10*). |
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11-20-18 | Nets v. Heat -3 | Top | 104-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Nets have had success here in South Beach in recent years but I like the way this spot sets up for the Heat as they aim to bounce back from an ugly home loss to Lebron James and the Lakers. Miami is now a miserable 3-6 SU at home this season but this is a fine opportunity to get a little back against a struggling Nets squad. Brooklyn checks in following another loss, its fourth in its last five games. The Nets lone victory over that stretch came against the lowly Wizards. This is a key spot for the Heat as they'll get a couple of days off for Thanksgiving before hitting the road for games in Chicago and Toronto. It's not a must-win by any means but I certainly expect their motivation level to be high. In previous years we've seen them overlook the Nets here at home, but I don't believe that will be the case on Tuesday. Take Miami (10*). |
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11-20-18 | Raptors v. Magic +7.5 | 93-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Raptors snapped their three-game losing streak with a blowout win in Chicago on Saturday night but I believe they're overvalued as they head into Orlando to face the Magic on Tuesday. Note that while Toronto has the better overall record this season, the Raps and Magic have actually posted identical 9-8 ATS marks. This has been a competitive series since the start of 2017 with the Raptors taking four of six meetings (including four in a row heading into this one) but the Magic have gone 3-2-1 ATS. Orlando will see this as a measuring stick game coming off three straight victories and five in their last six games. I'm simply expecting a competitive affair at Amway Center on Tuesday night and believe the Magic are catching a couple of points too many. Take Orlando (10*). |
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11-16-18 | Raptors v. Celtics -1.5 | 116-123 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the Raptors in the first meeting between these two teams this season but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Celtics this time around. Toronto is by no means playing its best basketball right now, coming off back-to-back losses at home against the Pelicans and Pistons. The Raptors are dealing with several key injuries while the Celtics check in healthy for the most part. Boston is coming off one of its most complete performances of the season, shaking off a slow start to roll past the Bulls by 29 points. The win improved the Celtics to 4-1 at home this season. Note that the home team has won eight straight meetings in this series. Take Boston (10*). |
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11-14-18 | Blazers +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 117-126 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. We're getting considerable value with the superior squad in this matchup, largely due to the presence of LeBron James, not to mention the strong current form the Lakers bring to the table, on paper at least. Los Angeles does check in having won five of its last six games but that's been thanks in large part to a charmin-soft schedule. Yes, the Lakers did beat these same Blazers over that stretch but you have to think that only adds to Portland's motivation here. The Blazers are coming off two days' rest which comes on the heels of an extended homestand. I believe Portland is in excellent position to lay the hammer down on the Lakers in this spot. Take Portland (10*). |
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10-22-18 | Hornets +9.5 v. Raptors | 106-127 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Hornets as they head to Toronto to face the undefeated Raptors. Charlotte is coming off a big road win in Miami on Saturday night but there isn't likely to be a letdown here after the Hornets were outscored by 19 points in the second half against the Heat, holding on to win by a single point. The Hornets always seem to play the Raptors tough here in Toronto and this should be a better Charlotte squad than we've seen in recent years. Toronto sat Kawhi Leonard in an early season back-to-back spot in Washington on Saturday night but still found a way to win on the strength of a big performance from Kyle Lowry. We actually won with the Raptors on Friday night as they outlasted the Celtics 113-101. However, I won't hesitate to switch gears in this spot as Toronto is laying a much loftier number in what I expect to be a competitive affair. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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10-19-18 | Celtics v. Raptors -2.5 | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Boston at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Celtics took care of business in their season opener against the 76ers but it wasn't a clean performance by any means. Boston was sloppy with the basketball at times and it was obvious that Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving are going to be slowly re-acclimated into the offense in the early stages of the season. Meanwhile, the Raptors also posted a victory in their opener, rolling to a double-digit win over the Cavaliers. I like the way the Raptors have stepped up in these big statement games at home in recent years - at least in the regular season. The Celtics are going to get better as the season goes on but right now, I believe the Raptors are the superior team. Take Toronto (10*). |
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10-16-18 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 208.5 | 87-105 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Boston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair between the 76ers and Celtics as the NBA regular season tips off on Tuesday night at TD Garden. We saw a relatively high-scoring playoff series between these two teams last spring and there's little reason to expect any sort of shift here. The 76ers appeared to be in midseason form offensively during the preseason while the Celtics were able to get Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving loose as they work their way back from long-term injuries. The C's are thought of as the team to beat in the Eastern Conference and I'm confident we'll see them come out and push the envelope against one of their biggest threats in the 76ers. I don't believe that slowing things down and drawing out possessions is in either team's DNA. I feel this total could have been set higher, and would likely still consider the 'over'. Look for higher numbers in games involving these two teams in the coming weeks. Take the over (10*). |
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06-08-18 | Warriors -5 v. Cavs | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 36 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Cleveland at 9 pm et on Friday. We backed the Warriors in Game 3 of this series and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with them again in the potential series-clincher on Friday night in Cleveland. Many believed this series was over before it started. While I did feel the Cavs could be competitive and push the Warriors a bit, after the way they lost the series-opener it became all about how they would respond in Game 2. The short answer was, they didn’t. Cleveland looked like a defeated squad in the second game of the series and while the Cavs did put up a fight in Game 3 on Wednesday, it wasn’t enough. Now it’s just a question of whether the Warriors have the motivation to end this on Friday night. I believe they will. Golden State has been very business-like in taking care of the Cavs so far in this series. They very much look like a team that wants to wrap this up as quickly as possible and not drag things out. As much as the Warriors fans would like to see their team win another championship at home in Oakland, I’m sure the Warriors themselves will be happy to board a plane back home with the Larry O’Brien Trophy in tow. It’s worth noting that the straight-up winner has now gone an incredible 16-1 against the spread since the start of the NBA Conference Finals. I’ll stick with that trend and call for the Warriors to finish the job on Friday night in Cleveland. Take Golden State (10*). |
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06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 216 | Top | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 36 h 35 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Golden State and Cleveland at 9 pm et on Friday. The Warriors have had four previous series-clinching opportunities in these playoffs, going 3-1 straight-up in those games. For our purposes with this play, it’s worth noting that those games have averaged just 198.3 total points, with only one of those games surpassing the total we’re working with on Friday night. The Cavs played about as well as we could have expected in Game 3 of this series but could still only muster 102 points in a losing effort. They know they’re not coming back to win this series at this point, and I certainly don’t think they’re interested in getting involved in a track meet with the Warriors on Friday night. Meanwhile, after three games, and with Andre Iguodala back in the rotation, the Warriors should have a pretty good handle on how to contain the Cavs less-than-complex offense at this point. It’s really up to Golden State how it wants this game to play out and based on its track record in these playoffs, I look for it to lock down the Cleveland offense as it stares down an opportunity to wrap up this series rather than drag it out another few days. Steph Curry isn’t going to go 0-for-9 from three-point range again but I’m also not sure we’ll see Kevin Durant go off the way he did in Game 3. Cleveland made every effort to push the pace early in Game 3 and got off to a fantastic start in the first two minutes, but it wasn’t able to keep up that frantic tempo and certainly wasn’t effective getting back on defense while doing so. As I mentioned, the Cavs know they aren’t going to beat the Warriors at their own game. The last time the Warriors wrapped up an NBA title here on this floor in Cleveland back in 2016, they did so with a 105-97 victory in Game 6. I expect to see a similar story unfold on Friday night. Take the under (10*). |
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06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 217 | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Cleveland at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games in this series have gone 'over' the total (we won with the over in Game 1 but missed with the under in Game 2) but I expect a different story to play out on Wednesday night at the Q. First of all, we have a catalyst for change in place here as the series shifts to Cleveland. It's also worth noting that the two teams are relatively well rested having had two off days following each of the first two games of the series. While the Warriors carry a reputation as being an offensive juggernaut and an 'over' machine for betting purposes, the fact is they've actually trended toward the 'under' with a 46-54-1 o/u mark this season and have only posted three or more consecutive 'over' results on two different occasions - with both of those streaks coming during the regular season. Last year's NBA Finals were high-scoring throughout, although the first game of that series did stay 'under' the total. In the last three Finals series' between these two teams we have yet to see the first three games all go 'over' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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06-06-18 | Warriors -4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 59 h 46 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Cleveland at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We were always going to see the Cavs’ resilience level in Game 2 of this series on Sunday night. After the way the series opener played out, the Cavs were either going to show up with their best effort of the postseason or they were going to look down-trodden and very much like a team that is resigned to the fact that they cannot, and will not be able to win this series. We certainly saw the latter on Sunday night. Save for a couple of brief bursts early on, the Cavs appeared to be a beaten squad, both emotionally and physically. While Lebron James has appeared visibly frustrated for much of these playoffs, it certainly looked like all of the joy was zapped from his being after Game 1’s overtime loss. So now the series shifts to Cleveland and while the Cavs faithful would like to remain hopeful and ultimately help lift Lebron and company back into this series, I just don’t see it happening. The Cavs are being given respect still from the betting marketplace - otherwise we would be looking at a line approaching double-digits in favor of the Warriors, even on the road. I’m just not sure that respect is due at this point. The Warriors have looked disjointed at times in these playoffs – disinterested even. That comes with the territory as they aim for their third NBA title in the last four years. However, after toying with the Cavs in Game 2, I believe they can sense another championship in their grasp and I don’t think they’ll have any interest in messing around with the Cavs any longer than they absolutely have to. It’s time to move on from this “rivalry”. Take Golden State (10*). |
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06-03-18 | Cavs +11.5 v. Warriors | 103-122 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Golden State at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Cavs in Game 1 of this series and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 2 on Sunday night. The Cavs didn't force overtime by fluke on Thursday night. In fact, they just as easily could have won that game before overtime were it not for J.R. Smith losing sight of the score. There's no reason for the Cavs to hang their heads after that loss. If anything it should give them encouragement heading into this contest. The Warriors have now taken all three meetings in this series this season, going 2-1 ATS in the process. However, none of those victories came by more than 10 points. The Cavs know that they need a split here in Oakland if they want to have any hope of making a series of it. While I'm not sure if they'll be able to get the outright win, I will gladly grab the generous helping of points. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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06-03-18 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 215 | 103-122 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Golden State at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Sunday night. Both teams got off to blazing starts in the opener, and the result was a high-scoring opening quarter. But from there things did settle down and we saw some stretches of sloppy basketball - the type of basketball that has been fairly common in both teams' current playoff runs. I'm not sure we're going to see another peak Lebron effort in Game 2. But on the flip side, I also haven't loved what I've seen from the Warriors, who have looked far more disjointed than in previous playoff campaigns. Keep in mind, these two teams were involved in a game that reached only 191 total points in the regular season so the potential is there for a relatively low-scoring, physical affair. I expect to see that physicality ramp up in the second game of the series. Take the under (10*). |
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05-31-18 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214 | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. In last year's Finals opener we saw the lowest scoring game of the series, reaching just 204 total points. In fact, that was the only 'under' result in the series as the next four games flew 'over' the number. I expect a different story to unfold here in the 2018 Finals. The Warriors won't be afforded the luxury of having the Cavs missing over and over again from three-point range the way the Rockets did last round. While the Cavs are likely going to be missing Kevin Love once again, they won't be missing arguably their most important player the way the Rockets were at the end of the Western Finals either. With all of that said, I don't think we'll see the Cavs offer much resistance defensively. The Celtics seemed to bail the Cavs out last round, particularly in Game 7 of that series as they displayed some poor shot selection and couldn't really get into any sort of offensive groove. Here, I'm confident the Warriors will be on the attack for 48 minutes and find plenty of success against a vulnerable Cavs defense. The last time these two teams met in January we saw a closing total of 233.5. We're obviously working with a much different number here and that has everything to do with the Warriors 1-9 o/u record over their last 10 games. That has little bearing in the opener of this series though. Take the over (10*). |
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05-31-18 | Cavs +12.5 v. Warriors | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. The vast majority of folks seem to think that this series is a foregone conclusion and that the Warriors are going to win in a walk. That was certainly the case last year as the Cavs managed to take only one game from the Warriors. I expect a different story to unfold this year, however, and actually see Cleveland giving Golden State a run. This may be one of the weakest teams Lebron James has ever carried this far in the playoffs, but I feel that only motivates King James more. He took his game to another level in the final two games against the Celtics and I look for some carry-over in the opener of The Finals on Thursday night. The Warriors have posted consecutive ATS wins only twice in these playoffs, reeling off three straight ATS victories just once (that was the first three games of the playoffs against San Antonio). Prior to that, the last time the Warriors won three in a row ATS was way back in February (8th to 12th). Neither of these teams have been good bets this season - when in doubt, grab the points with the underdog. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-28-18 | Warriors -5.5 v. Rockets | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Houston at 9:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the Warriors in Game 6 of this series on Saturday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them in Game 7 on Monday night. As I've mentioned this round, the SU winner has done a tremendous job of also covering the spread here in the Conference Finals, including a perfect 6-0 ATS mark in this series (perfect 13-0 ATS overall this round). That's a trend I see continuing here. The Rockets seemed to peak in Game 5 of this series, at least from an emotional standpoint. They didn't have it on Saturday night in Oakland, at least from the second quarter on, and now I'm just not sure they truly believe they can beat the three-time defending Western Conference champions in a winner-take-all affair. Golden State couldn't have played any worse than it did the last time it played on this floor in Game 5. We saw the Warriors finally wake up after a dreadful first quarter in Game 6 and I look for some carry-over from that performance here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 208.5 | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Houston at 9:05 pm et on Monday. We saw a very low-scoring game between the Cavs and Celtics last night (we won with the 'under') and while I don't expect that type of slugfest here in Game 7 of the Western Finals, I am confident this contest will stay 'under' the posted total. We've seen the totals drop drastically over the course of this series, but it's been warranted in my opinion. Even in Game 6, when the two teams took turns going on monster runs, the game still stayed comfortably 'under' the number. I certainly expect some pushback from the Rockets here after they were run out of the gym on Saturday night. But I'm not convinced Houston's offense can figure things out, clearly mired in a major shooting slump, particularly from beyond the arc, in this series. Whether Chris Paul is able to play or not, I'm not anticipating a track meet between these two teams who are obviously extremely familiar with one another at this point. Take the under (10*). |
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05-27-18 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 200 | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Boston at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Game 7 between the Cavs and Celtics on Sunday night. It's certainly worth noting that the 'under' has gone 3-0 in three games in Boston in this series while the 'over' has cashed in two of three games in Cleveland. The Cavs actually took a step back in Game 6, putting up 109 points after scoring 116 and 111 points in Games 3 and 4 in Cleveland. Lebron James turned in one of the biggest performances of his career in Game 6 but he'll have a tough time replicating that feat in Boston, where the Celtics have done a good job defending him in this series. While the Celtics have enjoyed plenty of success in this series, particularly at home, this is still a young team hosting a squad of seasoned veterans with a spot in the NBA Finals on the line - I do think we'll see them display some nerves, at least early in this contest. This is the lowest total we've seen in this series so far, but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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05-27-18 | Cavs +3 v. Celtics | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Boston at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. It seems as though the Celtics have won over the betting public as folks are lining up to back the C's at home in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday night. While we've won with the Celtics at home twice in this series I won't hesitate to switch sides here in Game 7 as I feel the value has swung in the Cavs favor after Lebron James' incredible performance in Game 6 on Friday. Even if the Cavs are without Kevin Love for this one, I still expect them to put forth a much better showing than we've seen in their first three games here in Boston. There's no question the Celtics are an emerging team in the East, they've more than proved that during this playoff run. I'm just not sure their time has come just yet. It's not often we see the home team run the table in the NBA Conference Finals, and I don't see it happening here either. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-26-18 | Rockets v. Warriors -11.5 | Top | 86-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Houston at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Warriors couldn't have played much worse in Game 5 of this series on Thursday night, as the Rockets rode a wave of emotion to a narrow three-point win. The fact that Golden State was in that game right until the end was telling in my opinion. I expect to see a much sharper performance from the Warriors on Saturday. While we're being asked to lay a steep price for sure, I do believe it's warranted, especially considering the Rockets will be without Chris Paul after he re-aggravated a hamstring injury in Game 5. Despite being up 3-2 in this series you have to think Houston is feeling a sense of doubt as it heads to Oakland - not a good feeling when you're looking to close out the defending champs. It's worth noting that the after the Cavs win and cover last night, the SU winner has now gone a perfect 11-0 ATS in this round. I certainly don't expect the Warriors to go down without a fight and feel confident they'll force a Game 7 in Houston. Look for that SU/ATS combo trend to continue here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-25-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -7 | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Boston at 8:35 pm et on Friday. There's been a pretty strong trend when it comes to Lebron James-led teams in the playoffs over the years, that being the SU winner more often than not covers the spread as well, no matter the pointspread range. We saw that trend break early in these playoffs but lately it has come back strong, with the SU winner going 8-1 ATS in the Cavs last nine games overall. I don't expect the Cavs to lose this series on their home floor on Friday night. We won with the Celtics on Wednesday in a game that was never really close. But the Celtics have yet to sniff out a victory here in Cleveland and don't expect anything to change on Friday night. Look for Lebron James to turn in his best performance of the series as the Cavs force a seventh and deciding game. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-24-18 | Warriors -1 v. Rockets | 94-98 | Loss | -103 | 24 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State over Houston at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. I don't think there's any panic at all in the Warriors as they head back to Houston with this series all knotted at two games apiece. Golden State was completely outplayed in two of four quarters in Game 4, ultimately falling by three points. Steph Curry and Kevin Durant combined to shoot 19-of-50 in the loss. Needless to say, I'm anticipating a strong bounce-back performance from that duo, especially if Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala can't go on Thursday night. The Rockets can't play much better than they did on Tuesday, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. I fully expect Warriors head coach Steve Kerr to make the necessary gameplan adjustments while the Warriors stars execute. Golden State knows it can win on this floor, having come away victorious in the series opener here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. This has been the classic homer series so far and I don't see that trend reversing on Wednesday night in Boston. Everyone is quick to write off the Celtics after back-to-back losses in Cleveland, just as they were quick to write off the Cavs following the first two games in Boston. There are those suddenly questioning Celtics head coach Brad Stevens' decisions and his ability to make the necessary adjustments against Lebron James and company. I'm not buying into any of it. The Celtics have been a completely different team on their home floor in these playoffs, and really all season long. Boston is an impressive 36-14 SU at home this season while the Cavs are just a .500 team on the road. I like the fact that the Celtics didn't fold the tent after a miserable first quarter on Monday in Cleveland, outscoring the Cavs in each of the next three quarters in an eventual nine-point loss. I don't believe they'll be intimidated or crumble under the pressure in Game 5. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-22-18 | Rockets +8.5 v. Warriors | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Rockets in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday night in Oakland. Houston put forth a miserable effort in Game 3, unable to build on what was certainly a strong performance in a blowout win in Game 2. Now it's up to the Rockets to come up with some answers and I do expect them to show up. Whether that leads to an outright win remains to be seen, but I do think the Rockets are going to stay inside the lofty pointspread here, noting that the Warriors remain a losing bet on the season at 41-53-1 ATS. Stay aware of the status of Andre Iguodala for the Warriors as he may be forced to miss Tuesday's game due to injury, which would obviously be a key absence. I'll make this play on the Rockets assuming he's good to go, however. Take Houston (10*). |
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Sean Murphy NBA Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-05-19 | Rockets +3.5 v. Raptors | 107-95 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
03-05-19 | Bulls +7.5 v. Pacers | Top | 96-105 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
03-04-19 | Clippers +4.5 v. Lakers | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
03-03-19 | Raptors v. Pistons +4.5 | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
03-02-19 | Lakers -6.5 v. Suns | 109-118 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
03-01-19 | Pelicans -4.5 v. Suns | 130-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
02-28-19 | Jazz +7 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
02-28-19 | Warriors v. Magic +6.5 | 96-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
02-27-19 | Pelicans v. Lakers -5.5 | 119-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
02-27-19 | Warriors v. Heat +9 | Top | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
02-26-19 | Celtics v. Raptors -4 | Top | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
02-24-19 | Magic +9.5 v. Raptors | 113-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
02-23-19 | Pistons v. Heat UNDER 206 | 119-96 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 13 m | Show | |
02-23-19 | Blazers v. 76ers -2 | 130-115 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
02-22-19 | Pelicans v. Pacers -5.5 | 111-126 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
02-22-19 | Wizards +5.5 v. Hornets | 110-123 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 33 m | Show | |
02-21-19 | Kings +12 v. Warriors | 123-125 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show | |
02-21-19 | Rockets v. Lakers OVER 233 | 106-111 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
02-17-19 | Team LeBron v. Team Giannis OVER 311 | 178-164 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
02-15-19 | World v. USA OVER 290 | 144-161 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
02-14-19 | Thunder -4.5 v. Pelicans | 122-131 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
02-14-19 | Hornets v. Magic UNDER 216 | 89-127 | Push | 0 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
02-13-19 | Wizards +11 v. Raptors | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
02-13-19 | Nets v. Cavs UNDER 221 | 148-139 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
02-13-19 | Bucks v. Pacers UNDER 219.5 | 106-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
02-12-19 | Lakers v. Hawks OVER 236 | 113-117 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
02-11-19 | Nets v. Raptors OVER 226.5 | 125-127 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
02-10-19 | Heat v. Warriors UNDER 222 | 118-120 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
02-09-19 | Hornets v. Hawks OVER 228.5 | 129-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
02-08-19 | Heat v. Kings -2.5 | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
02-08-19 | Bucks v. Mavs +8 | Top | 122-107 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
02-07-19 | Lakers v. Celtics -8.5 | 129-128 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
02-07-19 | Raptors -9 v. Hawks | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
02-07-19 | Wolves +2 v. Magic | 112-122 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
02-06-19 | Rockets v. Kings +2.5 | 127-101 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
02-05-19 | Magic v. Thunder UNDER 223 | 122-132 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
02-04-19 | Nuggets v. Pistons +4 | 103-129 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
02-03-19 | Clippers v. Raptors OVER 229.5 | 103-121 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 7 m | Show | |
02-02-19 | Rockets v. Jazz -7 | 125-98 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
02-01-19 | Rockets v. Nuggets OVER 227 | 122-136 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show | |
02-01-19 | Hawks v. Jazz -11.5 | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
01-31-19 | Mavs v. Pistons -2 | 89-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
01-30-19 | Hawks v. Kings -5.5 | 113-135 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
01-29-19 | 76ers -6.5 v. Lakers | 121-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
01-25-19 | Pistons v. Mavs -4.5 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
01-25-19 | Wizards v. Magic -3.5 | 95-91 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
01-24-19 | Pelicans +12 v. Thunder | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
01-16-19 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Warriors | 140-147 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
01-16-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -1.5 | 129-109 | Loss | -118 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
01-16-19 | Spurs v. Mavs +1 | 105-101 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
01-15-19 | Warriors v. Nuggets +2 | 142-111 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
01-09-19 | Pacers +6.5 v. Celtics | 108-135 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
01-07-19 | Spurs v. Pistons +3.5 | 119-107 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
01-03-19 | Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 226 | 135-134 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 23 m | Show | |
01-02-19 | Hawks +5 v. Wizards | 98-114 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
12-25-18 | Lakers v. Warriors -8.5 | 127-101 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 39 m | Show | |
12-25-18 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 222.5 | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 44 h 16 m | Show | |
12-22-18 | Suns v. Wizards -5.5 | 146-149 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
12-21-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -1 | 120-107 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
12-21-18 | Pacers -2 v. Nets | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
12-19-18 | Spurs v. Magic +1 | 129-90 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 51 m | Show | |
12-14-18 | Warriors v. Kings +8.5 | 130-125 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
12-14-18 | Knicks v. Hornets -11 | 126-124 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
12-11-18 | Blazers +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
12-08-18 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -2.5 | 111-88 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
12-08-18 | Nets v. Knicks -3 | 112-104 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
12-08-18 | Rockets -2.5 v. Mavs | 104-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
12-07-18 | Raptors -9 v. Nets | 105-106 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
12-05-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +11.5 | Top | 129-105 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
12-04-18 | Blazers v. Mavs -2 | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
12-03-18 | Nuggets v. Raptors -6 | 106-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
11-30-18 | Pelicans v. Heat +3 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
11-28-18 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 218 | Top | 89-128 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
11-27-18 | Knicks v. Pistons -7 | Top | 108-115 | Push | 0 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
11-21-18 | Kings +9.5 v. Jazz | 119-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
11-21-18 | Blazers +6 v. Bucks | 100-143 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
11-20-18 | Nets v. Heat -3 | Top | 104-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
11-20-18 | Raptors v. Magic +7.5 | 93-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
11-16-18 | Raptors v. Celtics -1.5 | 116-123 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
11-14-18 | Blazers +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 117-126 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
10-22-18 | Hornets +9.5 v. Raptors | 106-127 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
10-19-18 | Celtics v. Raptors -2.5 | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
10-16-18 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 208.5 | 87-105 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
06-08-18 | Warriors -5 v. Cavs | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 36 h 38 m | Show | |
06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 216 | Top | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 36 h 35 m | Show |
06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 217 | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
06-06-18 | Warriors -4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 59 h 46 m | Show |
06-03-18 | Cavs +11.5 v. Warriors | 103-122 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
06-03-18 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 215 | 103-122 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
05-31-18 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214 | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
05-31-18 | Cavs +12.5 v. Warriors | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
05-28-18 | Warriors -5.5 v. Rockets | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 208.5 | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
05-27-18 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 200 | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
05-27-18 | Cavs +3 v. Celtics | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
05-26-18 | Rockets v. Warriors -11.5 | Top | 86-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
05-25-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -7 | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
05-24-18 | Warriors -1 v. Rockets | 94-98 | Loss | -103 | 24 h 52 m | Show | |
05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
05-22-18 | Rockets +8.5 v. Warriors | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show |