Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-26-24 | Wolves v. Suns -4 | 126-109 | Loss | -109 | 39 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Minnesota at 10:30 pm et on Friday. This spot sets up beautifully for the Suns as they return home down 2-0 against the Timberwolves on Friday. All is not yet lost for Phoenix as it brings confidence to Game 3 knowing it has gone 25-16 on its home floor this season. Minnesota has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven straight-up losses on the road. Also note that the T'Wolves are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games when leading a playoff series and 1-4 ATS this season following consecutive ATS wins as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Suns are 35-21 ATS in their last 56 contests as a home favorite of six points or less including a 12-10 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're also 6-3 ATS when coming off a double-digit road loss this season, as is the case here. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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04-26-24 | Clippers v. Mavs OVER 209 | Top | 90-101 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 51 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 8 pm et on Friday. The first two games in this series both stayed 'under' the total. In fact, neither contest came close to toppling the total and as a result we're working with a much lower number in Game 3 on Friday. I see a catalyst for change at work here as the scene shifts to Dallas. I certainly don't expect either team to shoot as poorly as they did in Games 1 and 2. Note that the 'over' is 26-23 in the Clippers last 49 games after giving up 100 points or less in their previous contest including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 25-21 with the Clips coming off a game where they scored 100 points or less including a 5-3 record this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 45-37 in the Mavericks last 82 contests as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points including a 17-13 mark in that situation this season. The two regular season meetings between these two teams here in Dallas totalled 270 and 231 points. Take the over (10*). |
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04-25-24 | Nuggets v. Lakers +1.5 | 112-105 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Denver at 10 pm et on Thursday. Most have already advanced the Nuggets past the Lakers as they head to Los Angeles with a commanding 2-0 series lead. In fact, we're already hearing talk of Denver's impending championship repeat. Usually when that starts happening, the team runs into some trouble and I expect that to be the case with the Nuggets on Thursday. Note that Denver is just 19-23 ATS in its last 42 road games with the line set between +3 and -3 including a 5-8 ATS mark this season. The Nuggets are also 24-42 ATS in their last 66 contests following three straight wins, going 7-15 ATS in that situation this season. The Lakers are 12-10 ATS in their last 22 games following consecutive road losses including a 3-2 ATS mark in that spot this season. They're also 31-20 ATS in their last 51 contests after scoring 105 points or less in their previous game, as is the case here, including an 8-2 ATS record in that situation this season. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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04-25-24 | Knicks v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 36 h 42 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Knicks held serve at home, winning each of the first two games in this series to head to Philadelphia ahead 2-0. I still think the potential is there for this to be a long series and look for the 76ers to bounce back in Game 3. With that being said, it's worth noting that the Knicks have gone 1-17 ATS in their 18 road losses this season. New York is a long-term 39-54 ATS when coming off a home win by three points or less including a 3-6 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons and 1-2 ATS this season. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 62-49 ATS in its last 111 contests as a home favorite including a 21-12 ATS record this season. The 76ers are also 31-23 ATS in their last 54 games following a road loss including a 13-6 ATS mark this season. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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04-23-24 | Mavs -2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 96-93 | Win | 100 | 40 h 46 m | Show |
Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. One record-setting poor shooting quarter effectively sunk the Mavericks in the opener of this series on Sunday. Dallas didn't get off to the start it had hoped for in that contest but still had hope after trailing by 12 points following the first quarter. From there it was a 22-8 second frame in favor of the Clippers and that was essentially that for Game 1. With that being said, the Mavs did show some fight, ultimately making the final score respectable thanks to a hot shooting second half. I do think we'll see them carry over some of the positive momentum from that strong second half in Game 2 on Tuesday. As indicated by the line, the Mavs are still the superior team in this matchup and check in 29-18 ATS in their last 47 games as a road favorite of six points or less including a 15-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Clips are just 12-16 ATS in their last 28 contests as a home underdog including a 2-4 ATS record this season. Take Dallas (10*). |
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04-21-24 | Mavs v. Clippers OVER 222.5 | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Los Angeles at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. We've seen this total drop considerably since opening but I think it's moving in the wrong direction. Both teams were trending faster down the stretch. The Clippers, while enduring their share of struggles, were actually rather consistent offensively over the final month of the regular season. They check in having connected on 40 or more field goals in six straight and 13 of their last 15 games overall. The problem is, their defensive play has left a lot to be desired this season. They've allowed eight of their last nine opponents to get off at least 88 field goal attempts. The Mavericks essentially punted their final two games of the regular season but prior to that had made good on 46, 50 and 43 field goals over their last three contests. They've hoisted more than 90 field goal attempts in eight of their last 15 games. Note that the 'over' is 23-20 in the Mavs last 43 road games with the total set in the 220's including a 7-4 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 36-28 in the Clippers last 64 games following consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here, including an 11-9 record this season. Take the over (8*). |
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04-20-24 | Lakers v. Nuggets -7 | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 36 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. We'll fade the Lakers off their play-in victory over the Pelicans earlier this week. The Nuggets are rested and waiting to begin defense of their NBA title and I look for them to come up with a big performance on Saturday. Note that Los Angeles is 61-69 ATS in its last 130 road games including a 19-22 ATS mark this season. The Lakers are also 16-33 ATS in their last 49 contests following consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here, including a 5-10 ATS record in that situation this season. Denver is a long-term 78-68 ATS in its last 146 games played on three or more days' rest including a 10-6 ATS mark over the last three seasons. Keep in mind the Nuggets are also 21-18 ATS as a home favorite this season. I'm not convinced this will be a quick series but I do anticipate Denver gaining the upper hand in the opener. Take Denver (8*). |
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04-17-24 | Hawks +3 v. Bulls | 116-131 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Chicago at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Bulls enter this game on the heels of three straight ATS victories and they're a long-term loser in that situation having gone 117-143 ATS including an 8-17 ATS mark over the last three seasons. Few will give the Hawks a chance in this game given they're riding a six-game losing streak, however, they're 45-38 ATS in their last 83 contests following six straight defeats. Also note that the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series, winning six of those games outright including each of the last four. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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04-16-24 | Lakers v. Pelicans | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
Play-in Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While the Pelicans were there in body they certainly weren't in spirit in Sunday's regular season ending 124-108 loss to these same Lakers. I expect a different story to unfold in Tuesday's 7 vs. 8 play-in tournament matchup. Neither team's back is against the wall, so to speak, in this contest as the one that loses will live to fight another day, against the winner of the 9 vs. 10 matchup between the Warriors and Kings. The Pelicans have enjoyed a terrific season and prior to Sunday's loss to the Lakers, had reeled off four straight wins - all coming on the road. I certainly anticipate them bouncing back here, noting they've gone 20-11 ATS in their last 31 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 9-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Lakers are 21-39 ATS in their last 60 contests following consecutive wins including a 9-15 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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04-14-24 | Bucks v. Magic OVER 214.5 | Top | 88-113 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Orlando at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Magic have been trending in the wrong direction defensively, allowing three straight and four of their last five opponents to connect on at least 42 field goals. They've also been playing faster down the stretch, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in three of their last five contests. The Bucks can seemingly bait any opponent into an up-tempo affair, noting that they've allowed 89 or more field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 games. Even without Giannis in the lineup, they've been clicking offensively, making good on 41 or more field goals in six of their last eight contests. The 'over' is 32-21 in the Bucks last 53 games following a road loss including a 10-8 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 49-39 in Orlando's last 88 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 13-7 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-12-24 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 219.5 | 114-109 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Pelicans are coming off an exceptionally high scoring affair in Sacramento last night as both teams quite simply shot the lights out. The pace wasn't necessarily there for a contest that approached 260 total points. I expect a lower-scoring contest on Friday as the Pelicans wrap up their road trip in San Francisco. Golden State is trending slower having gotten off just 80 and 77 field goal attempts in its last two games with the latter performance coming in last night's 100-92 win in Portland. While the Warriors have been red hot shooting the basketball I do think the Pelicans can tame them here, noting that New Orleans has had a penchant for bouncing back from subpar defensive efforts (it allowed Sacramento to connect on 46 field goals last night). The Pelicans have still held 20 of their last 25 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, New Orleans has gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games. This doesn't figure to be the spot where it suddenly starts playing fast as the tail-end of a long road trip near the end of the regular season. The Warriors have incredibly limited 10 of their last 11 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (8*). |
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04-11-24 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Kings | 135-123 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Sacramento at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans are 2-0 on their current road trip, successfully bouncing back from a four-game losing streak. They're as locked in defensively as it gets having held three of their last four opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals and 12 of their last 14 foes to 43 or fewer. The Kings have been playing faster lately but it hasn't translated into offensive success. They've gotten off 99, 94 and 96 field goal attempts over their last three contests but were limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in all three. They're likely to be left with little margin for error in this particular matchup with the Pelicans having held an incredible 14 straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Keep in mind Sacramento has connected on 42 or fewer field goals in 10 of its last 11 contests. The Pelicans are 28-24 ATS in their last 52 games as a road underdog of six points or less including a 10-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Kings are 33-47 ATS in their last 80 contests as a home favorite including a 13-21 ATS record this season. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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04-10-24 | Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. As is the case with many teams on Wednesday, both the Timberwolves and Nuggets are in a back-to-back spot here. I think this sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair between these Northwest Division rivals. Note that the Timberwolves have been the picture of consistency from a defensive standpoint this season. They're not getting run out of the gym by many opponents having held an incredible 17 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Over that stretch, only two opponents made good on more than 42. It's a similar story for the Nuggets but with even more dominance. They've limited seven of their last eight foes to fewer than 40 made field goals. You would have to go back 15 games to find the last time they allowed an opponent to connect on more than 42. The 'under' is 13-10 in Minnesota's last 23 games after scoring 130 points or more in their previous contest, as is the case here, including a 1-0 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 29-21 in the Nuggets last 15 contests as a home favorite of six points or less including a 9-4 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-24 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 226.5 | Top | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Suns last three games and I look for a similar story to unfold on Tuesday. Phoenix has held six straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and three in a row to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back eight games to find the last time the Suns connected on more than 44 field goals. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been limited to 43 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven games. They've held four straight and six of their last seven foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 60-45 in the Clippers last 105 games with the total set in the 220's including a 19-12 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 61-57 in the Suns last 118 contests as a home favorite including an 18-16 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-07-24 | Kings v. Nets OVER 220 | 107-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively low-scoring results and the Nets find themselves in a back-to-back situation following last night's victory over the Pistons. I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair on Sunday in Brooklyn. The Kings have shown signs of speeding things up lately, getting off 92 and 99 field goal attempts in two games sandwiched around a matchup with the slow-paced Knicks. They should get theirs against a matador-like Nets defense on Sunday, noting that Brooklyn has allowed 42, 53, 46 and 42 made field goals over its last four contests. While the Kings have been stout defensively, the Nets have shown flashes offensively in recent weeks, connecting on more than 40 field goals in four of their last six games (they didn't reach that number last night but still scored 113 points against Detroit). The 'over' is 64-54 in the Kings last 118 games following an 'under' result including a 21-17 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' has cashed in four straight games with the Nets playing the second half of back-to-backs. Take the over (8*). |
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04-07-24 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. New Orleans is reeling right now having lost four straight games both SU and ATS. I look for the Pelicans to give the Suns all they can handle on Sunday, however. Note that New Orleans is trending in the right direction offensively having knocked down 42 or more field goals in two of its last three games. It has also held five straight and 10 of its last 12 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Suns while coming off three straight victories both SU and ATS have been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. It's not as if they're blowing the doors off the opposition. Note that the Pelicans are 19-11 ATS in their last 30 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including an 8-3 ATS record in that situation this season. The Suns are 18-34 ATS in their last 52 contests following a double-digit home win including a 4-8 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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04-06-24 | Cavs v. Lakers OVER 228.5 | 97-116 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 3:40 pm et on Saturday. Sometimes these early start matchups on the west coast can be sleepy affairs but I don't expect that to be the case here. The Lakers have connected on 42 or more field goals in six of their last seven games. They're playing fast having gotten off 101 and 91 field goal attempts over their last two contests. Meanwhile, the Cavs haven't been their usual effective selves defensively and that's been the case for weeks. They've allowed five straight and seven of their last eight opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. While Cleveland hasn't been playing particularly fast lately, the Lakers have a knack for speeding up the opposition, sometimes to their own detriment. Their opponents have gotten off 89 or more field goal attempts in an incredible 30 of their last 31 games. The last time these two teams squared off back in November Cleveland hoisted up 91 field goal attempts in a game that reached 236 total points. The 'over' holds a slight edge in the long-term picture with the Cavs facing non-conference foes going 42-41 in their last 83 contests including a 16-10 mark this season. The 'over' is also 94-91 in Cleveland's last 185 contests following a loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here, including a 3-0 record in that situation this season. The Lakers have seen the 'over' go 123-102 in their last 225 games with the total set at 220 points or higher including a 43-31 record in that situation this season. Take the over (8*). |
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04-05-24 | Wolves v. Suns UNDER 219 | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair the last time they met but that was back in November. Phoenix is trending slower right now having gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight and eight of its last 10 games. The Suns have also played some defense lately, limiting seven of their last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Of course the Timberwolves have been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season and they enter this contest having held 11 straight and 13 of their last 14 foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. Minnesota's offense exploded last time out but that was against a matador-like Raptors defense. Prior to that, the T'Wolves had been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in seven straight contests. Note that the 'under' is 50-44 in Minnesota's last 94 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110 points or more, as is the case here, including a 15-5 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' holds a slight edge in all Suns home games recently, going 67-63 in their last 130 contests in the desert including a 19-18 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-04-24 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 210 | 109-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. We saw a glimpse of how the 76ers are likely to play with Joel Embiid back in the lineup on Tuesday and that's relatively slow as they got off just 78 field goal attempts in that come-from-behind victory. We also saw Philadelphia bounce back defensively in that contest, holding Oklahoma City to just 37 made field goals. Note that the Sixers haven't allowed more than 90 field goal attempts since way back on March 6th against Memphis. Miami has seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total but the numbers point to that trend being unsustainable. Note that the Heat have held 12 of their last 15 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. None of their last 12 foes have gotten off more than 88 field goal attempts. The 'under' is 39-24 in Philadelphia's last 63 games as a road underdog including a 12-7 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 45-40 in the Heat's last 85 contests following three straight double-digit victories, as is the case here, including a 1-0 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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04-04-24 | Kings v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 109-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Sacramento at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Knicks after suffering a 109-99 setback in Miami two nights ago. New York couldn't get anything going offensively in that loss. Off three straight losses, the Knicks will catch a Kings squad that is probably feeling pretty good about itself following victories over the Jazz and Clippers. That latter win came by 14 points against Los Angeles. Note that Sacramento is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games following a win by double-digits over a division opponent including a 1-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Kings are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests after allowing 95 points or less in their previous game including a 1-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 28-23 ATS in their last 51 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 7-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're also 16-10 ATS in their last 26 contests following a double-digit road loss including a 6-2 ATS record this season. Take New York (10*). |
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04-03-24 | Cavs v. Suns -5.5 | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Cleveland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Cavaliers are coming off a win in Utah last night but haven't strung together consecutive ATS victories since March 11th and 13th. They'll be hard-pressed to accomplish that feat as they challenge a rested Suns squad in Phoenix on Wednesday. Note that the Suns have 6-3 ATS over their last nine games despite facing a pretty tough recent schedule. This homestand will only get tougher with matchups against the Timberwolves, Pelicans and Clippers on deck. Look for Phoenix to make the most of this winnable matchup. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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04-03-24 | Raptors +15.5 v. Wolves | 85-133 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors haven't shown much life lately and find themselves in a back-to-back spot on Wednesday in Minnesota. With that being said, the Timberwolves are 1-2-1 ATS in their last four contests and will be hard-pressed to cover a spread this lofty given the way they're playing right now. Note that Minnesota has gotten off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games and 88 or fewer in seven straight. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time it knocked down more than 42 field goals. The Raptors are actually trending in the right direction offensively after connecting on 47 and 43 field goals in their last two contests. Take Toronto (8*). |
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04-02-24 | Knicks +3 v. Heat | 99-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Knicks enter this contest off consecutive losses with the most recent coming in demoralizing last-second fashion at home against the Thunder on Sunday. I look for them to bounce back on Tuesday as they head to Miami to take on a Heat team that is 'fat and happy' off consecutive victories. I don't trust the Heat in a home favorite role and note that they're just 14-22 ATS here in South Beach this season. For the Knicks, this is a key 'right the ship' game before returning home to face the Kings followed by a difficult four-game road trip. New York checks in 32-25 ATS in its last 57 contests as a road underdog of six points or less including a 9-7 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take New York (8*). |
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04-02-24 | Bucks v. Wizards +13.5 | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Bucks are 18-20 on the road this season but they're laying double-digits in Washington on Tuesday. Off a win and cover in Atlanta on Saturday, I'll fade Milwaukee here. The Bucks have been playing with a rather small margin for error on their current three-game road trip, getting off just 78 and 82 field goal attempts in the first two contests. On the flip side, they've allowed three straight opponents to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. That's not a recipe for success from a pointspread perspective when you're laying as many points as they are here. The Wizards have lost three games in a row following a three-game winning streak. Note that they've held three of their last four opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Take Washington (8*). |
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04-01-24 | Blazers v. Magic OVER 207.5 | 103-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Blazers have been one of the league's worst defensive teams in recent weeks, allowing four of their last six opponents to knock down at least 44 field goals and three of their last four to hoist up more than 90 field goal attempts. While Orlando's preferred pace is methodical, I do expect it to get out and run taking what Portland gives it on Monday. Note that the Magic, while an elite defensive team, have been giving up their share of opportunities lately (by their standards anyway), yielding 87, 90, 85 and 86 field goal attempts over their last four contests. The Blazers were held to just 35 made field goals last time out against Miami. However, they have shown the ability to bounce back offensively in recent weeks, connecting on 42 or more field goals in three straight games after being held to fewer than 40 in their previous contest. The 'over' is 52-49 in Portland's last 101 games as a road underdog including a 19-17 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 22-10 in Orlando's last 32 contests following a double-digit home win, as is the case here, including a 12-6 mark in that spot this season. Take the over (8*). |
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03-31-24 | Heat v. Wizards UNDER 218 | Top | 119-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Washington at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Miami is coming off a stunning 142-point explosion against Portland last time out. Keep in mind, the Heat are just one game removed from a stretch that saw them score 92 points or fewer in three of five games. The Wizards continue to see wild swings offensively. They were held to only 87 points in an 'upset' loss at home against the Pistons last time out. They've been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in six of their last eight contests. However, on the flip side, Washington has held four of its last five foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. Miami continues to play smothering defense (by today's NBA standards), limiting 10 straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 39-35 in Miami's last 74 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent score 110 points or more, as is the case here, including a 10-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 10-3 in the Heat's last 13 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 4-0 record in that spot this season. The 'under' is 12-8 in Washington's last 20 contests following consecutive home defeats including an 8-4 mark this season. Off an upset loss at home, the Wiz have seen the 'under' go 15-3 in their last 18 games including 3-0 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-30-24 | Grizzlies v. Magic OVER 207.5 | 88-118 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Magic are in a back-to-back situation after suffering a three-point loss at home against the Clippers last night. That contest totalled only 197 points but I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair as Orlando welcomes the Grizzlies to Amway Center on Saturday. Memphis has been getting its shots off regardless the opposition lately, hoisting up 94 or more field goal attempts in four of its last five games. While it does face a difficult challenge against one of the league's best defensive teams in Orlando on Saturday, it's worth noting that the Magic have allowed three of their last four foes to connect on 40 or more field goals (after holding 10 of their previous 11 opponents to fewer than 40). Orlando's offense has struggled in the last two games but it should be happy to see Memphis on Saturday, noting the Grizzlies have been tagged for 42 or more made field goals in six of their last seven contests including 45 or more in four of those matchups. Note that the 'over' is 38-33 in Memphis' last 71 games as a road underdog including an 18-13 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 23-19 in Orlando's last 42 contests after allowing 100 points or less in its previous game including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Take the over (8*). |
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03-29-24 | 76ers v. Cavs UNDER 212.5 | 114-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Cavaliers are coming off a much higher-scoring contest than expected in Charlotte two nights ago as they were upset by the Hornets. Meanwhile, the 76ers dropped a one-point decision at home against the Clippers. Philadelphia has held an incredible 10 of its last 11 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, however, it has been limited to 41 or fewer made field goals in 18 of its last 20 contests. Cleveland actually allowed Charlotte to get off only 76 field goal attempts last time out. The Hornets quite simply shot the lights out in a quick revenge spot. Note that the Cavs have limited five straight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. Cleveland has hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight contests. The 'under' is 39-23 in the 76ers last 62 games as a road underdog including a 12-6 mark in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 33-28 in Cleveland's last 61 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent including a 7-5 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-27-24 | Clippers -5.5 v. 76ers | 108-107 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. What's wrong with the Clippers? That question has come up countless times after they went 0-2 on their most recent homestand, including a blowout loss against the same 76ers that they'll face on Wednesday. After a red hot run that lasted from early December until early February, the wheels have come off for Los Angeles as it has dropped the cash in 16 of its last 22 games. I do like the revenge spot on Wednesday, however, noting that the Clippers are 26-21 ATS in their last 47 games following an upset loss, as is the case here, including a 7-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Better still, they're 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests following consecutive home defeats including a 2-0 ATS record in that spot this season. Philadelphia checks in 11-13 ATS in its last 24 games as a home underdog including a 2-5 ATS record in that role this season. The 76ers will be playing on just one day of rest following a four-game western road trip and looking ahead to playing five of their next six games away from home as well. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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03-27-24 | Cavs v. Hornets UNDER 206.5 | Top | 111-118 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams found their way 'over' the total in the front half of this home-and-home set on Monday in Cleveland. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday in Charlotte. Note that the Cavaliers knocked down 46 field goals in that victory. They simply shot the lights out but were by no means volume-shooters, getting off just 86 field goal attempts. In fact, the Cavs have hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight and eight of their last nine games. They haven't connected on more than 40 field goals in consecutive games since a three-game streak from February 25th to 28th. The Hornets have been far worse offensively in recent weeks. They've made good on 38 or fewer field goals in five straight games. They've have a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down, attempting just 82, 79, 84 and 80 field goals over their last four games. While Charlotte is by no means an elite defensive team, it has at least been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities, holding eight of its last 10 foes to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 10-4 in the Cavs last 14 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including an 8-0 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 25-18 in the Cavs last 43 contests following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, including an 8-6 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 22-11 in the Hornets last 33 games as a home underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 14-5 mark this season. Finally, the 'under' is 29-20 in Charlotte's last 49 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent including an 11-8 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-26-24 | Lakers v. Bucks OVER 232 | Top | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Bucks are well-positioned to go off offensively on Tuesday as they wrap up their three-game homestand against an injury-depleted Lakers squad. Milwaukee has connected on 51, 45, 43 and 49 field goals over its last four games. It has also been playing faster, hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in three of its last four contests. That spells trouble for a matador-like Lakers defense that has allowed more than 40 made field goals in seven of its last eight games, yielding at least 96 field goal attempts in four straight games and 92 or more in 10 of its last 11 contests. I do think the Lakers offense can be brought along for the ride in this game so to speak. Keep in mind, the Bucks have a poor track record as home favorites, going 57-62 ATS in their last 119 games in that role including a 15-18 ATS record this season. Milwaukee has allowed three of its last four opponents to connect on at least 40 field goals. The 'over' is 54-33 in the Lakers last 87 contests as a road underdog including a 13-8 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 27-25 in the Bucks last 52 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 13-9 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-25-24 | 76ers v. Kings UNDER 222 | 96-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The 76ers entered Sunday's game against the Clippers on a 7-0-1 'under' run but that game ended up sailing 'over' the posted total. I look for a return to 'normal' on Monday as Philadelphia wraps up its western road swing with a stop in Sacramento. Philadelphia has now held eight of its last nine opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. It has also limited 10 of its last 11 foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. While the Sixers did bust out for 48 made field goals against the Clips on Sunday they had been limited to 41 or fewer in 11 straight and 16 of their last 17 contests prior to that. The Kings figure to offer considerable resistance here as they've held eight straight and 11 of their last 12 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, Sacramento has connected on 42 or fewer field goals itself in four of its last five contests. Note that the 'under' is 45-30 in the Kings last 75 games as a home favorite including a 19-10 mark in that situation this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-25-24 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets OVER 213.5 | Top | 103-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Grizzlies are coming off a low-scoring victory in San Antonio on Friday but I look for a different story to unfold as they head to Denver to face the Nuggets on Monday. Note that Memphis has been trending toward higher-scoring affairs on its current road trip having hoisted up 92 and 96 field goal attempts in regulation time in two of three contests. Denver has actually proven vulnerable defensively, or at least more than usual, in recent contests allowing three of its last four foes to connect on at least 42 field goals. Speaking of vulnerability at the defensive end of the floor, Memphis has allowed 44 or more made field goals in regulation time in four of its last seven games. The Nuggets continue to thrive offensively having connected on 40 or more field goals in 14 of their last 16 games and 45 or more nine times over that stretch. Note that the 'over' is 37-33 in Memphis' last 70 games as a road underdog including a 17-13 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 10-6 in the Nuggets last 16 home games with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points including a 3-2 record in that spot this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-24-24 | Warriors v. Wolves OVER 218.5 | 110-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Warriors continue to give up far too many scoring opportunities having allowed four straight opponents to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. In fact, nine of their last 11 opponents have connected on more than 40 field goals. Minnesota has been far stingier defensively - one of the best defensive teams in the league, in fact. However, Golden State has been rather matchup-proof from an offensive standpoint, knocking down more than 40 field goals in 11 of its last 13 contests. I do think the Warriors will put up a fight in this game off that tough home loss against the Pacers on Friday. The Timberwolves have been as steady as they've been all season offensively in recent weeks, connecting on 40 or more field goals in five straight and seven of their last eight games. The 'over' is 44-36 in Golden State's last 80 games as an underdog including a 16-10 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 12-10 in the Timberwolves last 22 contests with the total set between 210 and 219.5 including a 6-3 record in that spot this season. Take the over (8*). |
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03-23-24 | Kings v. Magic UNDER 216 | 109-107 | Push | 0 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Magic are coming off consecutive 'over' results but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday. Sacramento has seen the 'under' cash in six of its last seven contests. The Kings have held seven straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. They'll face a challenge against a consistent Magic offense here but Sacramento has been relatively matchup-proof defensively having limited 21 of its last 24 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Orlando has held an incredible 13 straight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Like the Kings, the Magic are also limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, giving up 88 or fewer field goal attempts in an incredible 12 straight and 16 of their last 17 games. At home, Orlando should be able to dictate the pace and it has hoisted up 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 31 of its last 33 contests. The 'under' is 41-29 in Sacramento's last 70 games as a road underdog including an 11-7 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-4 in Orlando's last 17 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 6-1 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-22-24 | 76ers +8 v. Lakers | 94-101 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. The 76ers offense has struggled but I think they can be brought along for the ride against the Lakers on Friday. Los Angeles has allowed six straight and 27 of its last 28 opponents to connect on more than 40 field goals. In fact, the Lakers have allowed eight of their last nine opponents to get off at least 92 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Los Angeles knocked down 52 field goals in its most recent game against Atlanta on Monday. Note that the Lakers are just 1-4 straight-up following a game in which they made good on 50 or more field goals this season. Philadelphia checks in 27-23 ATS in its last 50 games following a road loss including a 9-6 ATS mark in that situation this season. Los Angeles is 15-17 ATS in its last 32 contests following a double-digit home victory including a 4-6 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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03-22-24 | Pacers v. Warriors UNDER 240 | Top | 123-111 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Pacers aren't the same team they were earlier in the season, playing at a slower pace and doing a much better job defensively. They check in with the 'under' having cashed in 11 of their last 14 games and we'll go that way again as they continue their road trip in San Francisco on Friday. Note that Indiana has held three straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only six of its last 17 opponents have managed to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. The Warriors have shot incredibly well over the last three games but are likely to face some resistance here. On the flip side, they've held five of their last six and 20 of their last 25 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 26-21 in the Pacers last 47 games as a road underdog of six points or less including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-6 in the Warriors last 15 contests following an ATS win as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here, including a perfect 2-0 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-21-24 | Hawks +10 v. Suns | 115-128 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Phoenix at 10:40 pm et on Thursday. The Suns are coming off a win and cover last night at home against the 76ers but I expect them to have a tougher time covering the lofty pointspread against a rested Hawks squad on Thursday. The injuries are certainly piling up for Atlanta with Jalen Johnson the latest to go down. With that being said, the Suns have consistently been bringing the opposition along for the ride so to speak, regardless the competition level, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in 26 of their last 30 games. They've allowed their foes to knock down at least 40 field goals in nine of their last 10 contests. On the flip side, Phoenix has hoisted up 90 or fewer field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. While Atlanta hasn't exactly been the picture of consistency at either end of the floor, it does check in having limited eight of its last 12 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Hawks are finding their scoring opportunities, getting off more than 90 field goal attempts in three of their last five contests and connecting on 41 or more field goals in three straight games. Despite last night's victory, Phoenix is still just 20-29 ATS in its last 49 games as a home favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 2-6 ATS mark in that situation this season. Worse still, the Suns are 14-35 ATS in their last 49 contests following a double-digit home win including a 1-8 ATS showing in that spot this season. While there are numerous fade signs flashing when it comes to the Hawks, they have reeled off four straight wins in this particular series, both SU and ATS including three in outright underdog fashion. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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03-20-24 | 76ers v. Suns UNDER 220.5 | 102-115 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. To say there's a low ceiling on the 76ers offense right now would be an understatement. Philadelphia has been held to 41 or fewer made field goals in nine straight and 14 of its last 15 games. The only occasion where it broke through that ceiling was on March 1st at home against the lowly Hornets. On the flip side, the 76ers continue to play tough defense. They've held six straight and 14 of their last 15 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Better still, they've limited nine straight foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. The Suns are coming off a bad defensive effort against the Bucks in Milwaukee on Sunday. They are capable of rising to the occasion in that department, however, as they've held nine of their last 14 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Suns offense while carrying a reputation of playing fast, has gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in two straight and five of their last six games. Note that the 'under' is 36-22 in the Sixers last 58 games as a road underdog including a 9-5 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 35-17 in Phoenix's last 52 contests when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent including a 10-3 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-18-24 | Wolves v. Jazz +7.5 | Top | 114-104 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Minnesota at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Timberwolves easily brushed aside the Jazz in the first half of this two-game set in Utah on Saturday. I expect Utah to provide a lot more resistance in Monday's rematch. Note that the T'Wolves have now won back-to-back road games. They're just 29-43 ATS in their last 72 contests following consecutive road wins including a 6-9 ATS record in that situation over the last three seasons. Minnesota is also just 3-9 ATS this season after holding consecutive opponents to 105 points or less. Meanwhile, Utah is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 games as a home underdog including a 13-7 ATS mark this season. Additionally, the Jazz are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games played with triple-revenge, as is the case here. Take Utah (10*). |
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03-17-24 | Hawks +9.5 v. Clippers | 110-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. Atlanta has lost three games in a row both SU and ATS including the first two games of its current road trip. I look for the Hawks to put up a fight on Sunday in Los Angeles, however. The Clippers will be hard-pressed to cover spreads like this when they've gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in eight of their last nine games. In stark contrast, the Hawks have hoisted up 87 or more field goal attempts in six of their last seven contests. The Clips aren't exactly locked-in defensively right now having allowed four straight opponents knock down more than 40 field goals. Note that the road team has covered the spread in four straight meetings in this series. The underdog has gone 7-5 ATS in the last 12 matchups. Finally, we'll note that Los Angeles is 48-57 ATS in its last 105 contests following a loss including a 10-13 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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03-17-24 | Nuggets v. Mavs +2.5 | 105-107 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Denver at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. We'll fade the Nuggets on Sunday as they come in feeling good about themselves off consecutive wins to open their current road trip. Note that Denver is just 24-27 ATS in its last 51 games as a road favorite of six points or less including an 8-10 ATS mark int hat situation this season. Meanwhile, Dallas checks in off a loss in Oklahoma City on Thursday and is 36-27 ATS in its last 63 contests following a road loss including a 7-6 ATS record in that spot this season. The Mavs are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when seeking revenge for consecutive double-digit losses against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Dallas (8*). |
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03-16-24 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 237 | Top | 128-121 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. Steph Curry is expected to return for the Warriors on Saturday and they could use the offensive boost as they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last 11 games. They'll run into a Lakers team that has shown signs of life defensively recently, limiting three straight and four of their last five foes to 46 or fewer made field goals (that's actually progress given the way they had been playing). While the Lakers have been shooting well themselves, they're playing with a relatively small margin for error having gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. Meanwhile, Golden State has limited the opposition to 44 or fewer made field goals in six of its last eight games. Note that the 'under' is 27-16 in Golden State's last 43 games played on two days' rest including a 6-3 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-17 in the Lakers last 37 contests played in the same situation including a 7-4 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-16-24 | Cavs v. Rockets UNDER 215.5 | 103-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Houston at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. The Rockets shot the lights out in their most recent game but that came against the lowly Wizards. They've actually gotten off just 84, 80 and 87 field goal attempts over their last three games and now face a stingy Cavaliers defense that has limited four of its last five opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. Like Houston, Cleveland is also coming off a strong offensive showing last time out against the Pelicans. It has still been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in seven of its last eight contests and 44 or fewer in 15 of its last 18 overall. The Rockets last game snapped a streak of seven straight contests in which they had limited the opposition to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. That was only due to the fact that Washington was desperately trying to get back in the game down big most of the way. Note that the 'under' is 14-12 in Cleveland's last 26 games following a win by 20 points or more, as is the case here, including a 5-3 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 48-45 in Houston's last 93 contests as a home underdog including a 12-6 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-15-24 | Clippers v. Pelicans -6 | 104-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Pelicans got schooled by an injury-depleted Cavaliers squad, on their home floor no less, two nights ago but I look for them to bounce back as they catch the Clippers in the second of back-to-backs on Friday. Los Angeles took care of business in Chicago last night, winning virtually wire-to-wire over the Bulls to snap a brief two-game skid. Interestingly, they're just 2-4 ATS over their last six games with both of those wins coming against Chicago. The Pelicans are just one game removed from a four-game winning streak and they're one of the league's few healthy teams at this late stage of the regular season. Los Angeles is just 23-29 ATS in its last 52 games against Southwest Division opponents including a 7-8 ATS mark this season. Meanwhile, New Orleans is 20-12 ATS in its last 32 games following an upset loss including an 8-5 ATS record in that situation this season. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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03-14-24 | Mavs v. Thunder -9.5 | Top | 119-126 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Dallas at 10 pm et on Thursday. Tough spot for the Mavericks here as they hit the road in the second of back-to-backs off a double-digit home win over the Warriors last night and on the heels of four straight victories. While Golden State wasn't able to take advantage last night, Dallas does continue to give up too many scoring opportunities on a nightly basis. The Mavs have allowed five of their last eight opponents to get off at least 92 field goal attempts. Oklahoma City figures to take advantage having knocked down 42 or more field goals in four straight and 15 of its last 17 games. The runway is cleared for takeoff for the Thunder here as they're rested having not played a back-to-back since March 3rd and 4th and with this being the finale of a four-game homestand. Note that Dallas is just 33-34 ATS in its last 67 games as a road underdog including a 10-14 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 32-18 ATS in its last 50 contests as a home favorite including an 18-9 ATS record this season. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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03-13-24 | Nets v. Magic UNDER 206 | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This game pits two teams that have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down lately. The Nets have been held to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. You would have to go back seven contests to find the last time they connected on more than 42 field goals. In fact, they've been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in 14 of their last 17 games. They don't figure to get any sort of break here as the Magic, while struggling to find wins lately, have continued to play tough defense. Orlando checks in having held an incredible seven straight foes to 40 or fewer made field goals and 10 of its last 11 to 41 or fewer. The Magic have allowed more than 80 field goal attempts just twice in their last seven contests. On the flip side, Orlando has knocked down 44 or fewer field goals in 10 straight and 12 of its last 13 games overall. Last time out the Magic broke a streak of six straight games in which they had hoisted up 81 or fewer field goal attempts. The 'under' is 66-45 in Brooklyn's last 111 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 21-12 record in that situation this season. The Nets have also seen the 'under' go 16-10 in their last 26 contests following a double-digit road win including a 3-1 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-5 in the Magic's last 14 contests with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points including a perfect 3-0 record this season. Finally, the 'under' is 44-35 in Orlando's last 79 games following consecutive losses including an 8-4 mark this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-12-24 | Bucks v. Kings +2.5 | Top | 94-129 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Milwaukee at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Bucks picked up a much-needed win over the Clippers on Sunday, snapping their brief two-game losing streak to open their current four-game road trip. I look for them to stumble on Tuesday, however, as they head to Sacramento to face the revenge-minded Kings. Sacramento has undoubtedly had this rematch circled on its calendar after dropping a heart-breaking 143-142 decision in Milwaukee on January 14th. The Kings enter this contest off a home loss against the Rockets which marked their second straight ATS defeat. Note that Sacramento is still 17-12 on its home floor this season. The Kings continue to do an excellent job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, holding an incredible 16 of their last 19 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and three of their last four to 84 or fewer. Despite the poor showing against Houston last time out, Sacramento has still knocked down 52 or more field goals in two of its last three contests. Milwaukee on the other hand has allowed all three opponents on its current trip to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. In fact, the Clippers hoisted up 104 field goal attempts against the Bucks on Sunday. Note that Milwaukee is a long-term 73-80 ATS when coming off a win including an 18-22 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Kings are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 contests following an upset loss at home including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Better still, they're 34-12 ATS in their last 46 games following consecutive ATS losses including 9-1 ATS this season. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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03-11-24 | Suns v. Cavs +6.5 | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Phoenix at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Cavs go from being seven-point favorites last night against the Nets to just shy of seven-point underdogs on Monday as they host the Suns in the second of a back-to-back situation. Phoenix dropped a 10-point decision at home against the Celtics on Saturday. While the Suns are expected to welcome Devin Booker back for Monday's game, I'm still not high on their offense noting they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in 12 straight games. On the flip side, Phoenix has been playing far too loose defensively, allowing an incredible 17 straight and 23 of its last 25 opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts with each of its last six foes getting off at least 94 (one game was aided by overtime against Denver). Cleveland is missing a number of key contributors right now but off last night's embarrassing beatdown at home against Brooklyn I do expect a positive response on Monday. Note that the Cavaliers have held six straight and 16 of their last 19 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Their offense has struggled without Donovan Mitchell but again there should be no shortage of scoring opportunities based on tonight's opponent. The Suns check in a long-term 53-53 ATS when laying between 3.5 and 9.5 points, as is the case here at the time of writing, but just 12-19 ATS in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Cavs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss by 15 points or more including a 2-1 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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03-10-24 | 76ers +5.5 v. Knicks | 79-73 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over New York at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Knicks are coming off a rout of the Magic on Friday while the 76ers had their comeback fall just short in a loss to the Pelicans. I look for Philadelphia to bounce back on Sunday as it hits the road to face New York. Note that the 76ers have held seven of their last nine opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. In fact, they've limited eight of their last nine opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. Despite the win on Friday, New York has knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in 12 straight games. On the flip side, the Knicks have been inconsistent defensively, allowing two of its last four foes to connect on exactly 44 field goals. The 76ers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games played with double-revenge, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Knicks are just 12-25 ATS in their alst 37 games played at home with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points including an 0-7 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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03-10-24 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 229 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The Heat enter this game off consecutive 'under' results but that's not of major concern noting they've had five previous 'under' streaks last longer. While Miami has dropped back-to-back games it remains in excellent form defensively. The Heat have held an incredible 15 of their last 16 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, the Wizards check in having knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in three straight and six of their last nine contests. On the flip side, Miami isn't likely to push the pace, even against a matador-like Wizards defense. the Heat have hoisted up 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 straight and 19 of their last 22 games. They've connected on more than 42 field goals just once in their last six contests. Note that the 'under' is 45-38 in Washington's last 83 games played with double-revenge including a 17-15 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 27-24 in Miami's last 51 home games with the total set at 220 points or higher including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-09-24 | Jazz +12.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 121-142 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Nuggets are coming off a key bounce-back win over the Celtics at home two nights ago. That came on the heels of an overtime loss at home against the Suns two nights earlier. Utah is reeling having lost nine of its last 11 games but has played competitive basketball lately, recording three straight ATS wins entering Saturday's contest. On a positive note, the Jazz have held seven straight opponents to 46 or fewer made field goals. That may not seem like much of an accomplishment but given how they had been playing previously it's a step in the right direction. They're missing some key contributors offensively but have managed to knock down 42, 49 and 44 field goals over their last three games and should get Keyonte George back from a one-game absence on Saturday. I don't think Denver is well-positioned to cover too many big spreads like this given it has connected on 45 or fewer field goals in three of its last four and seven of its last 11 contests. Note that the Jazz are 14-7 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU loss but ATS victory, as is the case here, including a 5-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Utah is also 19-15 ATS in its last 34 contests following three straight ATS wins, including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, Denver is a middling 15-16 ATS in its last 31 games as a double-digit favorite including 5-6 ATS this season. The Nuggets are just 11-14 ATS in their last 25 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they were a road favorite, which is the situation here, going 4-6 ATS in that spot this season. Finally, Denver is a long-term 73-82 ATS following a win including 18-22 ATS this season. Take Utah (10*). |
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03-09-24 | Celtics -5.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-107 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Phoenix at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. The Celtics are off to an 0-2 start on their current road trip with consecutive close losses coming at the hands of the Cavaliers and Nuggets. I look for them to 'get right' on Saturday as they continue their trip in Phoenix. The Suns are just 2-6 ATS over their last eight games. Their offense remains a bit of a mess with Devin Booker still sounding like he's a game or two away from returning. Note that Phoenix has been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in 11 straight games. On the flip side, the Suns continue to give up way too many scoring opportunities. They've allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in an incredible 16 straight games. The Celtics figure to take advantage. Despite being held to just 39 and 41 made field goals in the first two games of their current road trip, they've averaged 43 made field goals on 90 field goal attempts per game on the road this season. Note that Boston is a long-term 54-28 ATS in its last 82 games following consecutive losses by six points or less, as is the case here, including a 4-2 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Phoenix is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog of six points or less including an 0-4 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Boston (10*). |
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03-08-24 | Magic v. Knicks +1 | Top | 74-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York plus the points over Orlando at 7:40 pm et on Friday. Everyone is down on the Knicks right now. Perhaps rightfully so as they've lost eight of their last 11 games and could be without Jalen Brunson again on Friday as he nurses a knee injury. The Magic have to feel pretty good about themselves as they ride a five-game winning streak and are already off to a perfect 2-0 start on their current road trip. They're playing with a rather small margin for error, however, noting that they've gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games and 88 or fewer in 16 of their last 17 contests. The Knicks can apply some defensive pressure here, noting they've held 14 of their last 16 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Offensively, New York is struggling, however it did get off a whopping 99 field goal attempts against Atlanta two nights ago. The shots simply weren't falling. Note that the Knicks have lost four straight meetings in this series and that's notable as the Magic haven't defeated them in five straight matchups since recording a six-game winning streak from 2009-2011. Orlando is just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 road games with the line set between +3 and -3, which is likely to be the case here, including a 2-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Magic are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 contests following a win over a division opponent. Following consecutive wins over divisional foes they've gone 0-2 ATS over the last three campaigns. Additionally, they're 13-26 ATS in their last 39 games following three consecutive double-digit victories including an 0-1 ATS record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 21-17 ATS in their last 38 home games with the line set between +3 and -3 including a 5-2 ATS mark this season. They're also 27-20 ATS in their last 47 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent including a 5-3 ATS record this season. Take New York (10*). |
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03-07-24 | Heat v. Mavs UNDER 231.5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Heat have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last two games while the Mavericks are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair against the Pacers two nights ago. I expect a different story to unfold as these non-conference foes match up on Thursday in Dallas. Miami has held an incredible 13 of its last 14 opponents to 42 made field goals or less. In fact, the Heat have limited three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 successful field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to get off 90 or more field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Heat have connected on at least 46 field goals just twice since December 6th. They've gone eight straight games without hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts. We know what the Mavs are all about and that's offense. With that said, they've made good on 45 of fewer field goals in three straight and five of their last seven contests. On the flip side, Dallas has struggled defensively this season. However, it has generally bounced back following exceptionally poor performances and that's the situation it is in on Thursday after allowing Indiana to make good on 50 field goals last time out. On five previous occasions this season, the Mavs have yielded at least 50 made field goals and in their next contest they've held the opposition to an average of just 43.6 with the 'under' going 3-2. Note that the 'under' is 30-21 in the Heat's last 51 road games with the total set at 220 points or higher and 19-14 in their last 33 contests following consecutive home wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 65-54 with the Mavs playing at home and 9-7 in their last 16 contests after allowing 135 points or more in their previous game. Take the under (10*). |
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03-06-24 | Kings +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 130-120 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Kings are coming off a 113-109 loss at home against the surging Bulls on Monday. I look for them to bounce back against the Lakers on Wednesday. Los Angeles delivered an impressive 116-104 victory over the Thunder on Monday. Keep in mind, the Lakers caught the Thunder on the second night of a back-to-back. What I like about the Kings is their ability to limit their opponents' scoring opportunities. Sacramento has held five straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts and 14 of its last 16 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. On the season it has held opponents to an average of 87 field goal attempts per contest on the road. The Lakers have quite simply been shooting the lights out lately but I don't believe that is sustainable. On the flip side, Los Angeles continues to give up a boatload of scoring chances, yielding 92 or more field goal attempts in eight of their last nine and 15 of their last 17 contests. Note that the Kings are 36-18 ATS in their last 54 games following a home loss and 25-16 ATS in their last 41 contests following an upset loss. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 24-29 ATS in their last 53 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, and 25-28 ATS in their last 53 contests as a home favorite of six points or less. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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03-06-24 | Grizzlies v. 76ers UNDER 209.5 | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not sure they can set the total low enough in this non-conference matchup on Wednesday. Both teams are actually coming off 'over' results, oddly enough both of those games came against the Nets. With that being said, those contests totalled just 208 and 219 points, respectively so it's not as if we're talking about track meets. Memphis checks in having held three of its last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals and seven of its last nine foes to 42 or less. Philadelphia seems to have realized that it's not going to enjoy much success by pushing the pace, not with its current healthy personnel. The 76ers have gotten off just 88 and 82 field goal attempts over their last two games. Note that they've connected on 41 or fewer field goals in seven of their last eight contests. On the flip side, we have seen the Sixers lock-in defensively, holding eight straight and 10 of their last 11 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Part of that success comes from slowing the pace as I mentioned. Philadelphia has limited seven consecutive opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. The undermanned Grizzlies don't figure to offer a stiff test in that regard as they've hoisted up 83 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. Note that the 'under' is 21-18 in the Grizzlies last 39 games as a road underdog of six points or less and 41-25 in their last 66 contests after holding their previous opponent to 105 points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 14-5 in Philadelphia's last 19 games with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points, which is the case at the time of writing, and 62-44 in its last 106 contests following an upset loss on the road. Take the under (8*). |
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03-05-24 | Pelicans v. Raptors OVER 228 | 139-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. I see this as a blow-up spot for the Pelicans offense as they come in with fresh legs having not played since Friday (they barely broke a sweat and scored 129 points in that win over Indiana) and facing a depleted Raptors squad. With that being said, the Pelicans do have a tendency to let teams stick around on the road and I think there's reason to believe the Raptors can help this total along. Toronto has allowed its last five opponents to knock down 46, 46, 52, 44 and 43 field goals. Each of those five foes managed to hoist up at least 92 field goal attempts. The Pelicans don't play particularly fast but I don't think they'll be able to resist the temptation to push the pace in this matchup (note they attempted 104 field goals in the first meeting this season, scoring 138 points). New Orleans has allowed three of its last four opponents to get off at least 95 field goal attempts so the scoring opportunities should be there for Toronto. The Raptors have at least been consistent offensively, connecting on 41 or more field goals in seven straight games. They certainly don't mind pushing the pace, hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in seven of their last eight contests. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 3-0 with the Pelicans playing on three or more days' rest this season and 4-1 in their last five contests following five or more consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 3-1 in the Raptors last four games when seeking revenge for a loss by 30 or more points against an opponent. Take the over (8*). |
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03-04-24 | Thunder v. Lakers OVER 238.5 | 104-116 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. You would be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse defensive basketball than the Lakers right now. I'm not just talking about the short-term picture either - this has been going on for months. Los Angeles checks in having allowed nine of its last 11 and 14 of its last 18 opponents to knock down at least 45 field goals. The Lakers have been giving up scoring opportunities aplenty with seven of their last eight and 14 of their last 16 foes hoisting up at least 92 field goal attempts. Oklahoma City figures to apply plenty of pressure on Monday, noting the Thunder have knocked down 44 or more field goals in eight straight games. On the flip side, Oklahoma City has 10 straight and 13 of its last 14 opponents to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. While the Lakers defense has struggled their offense has not, connecting on 47 or more field goals in five straight games. You would have to go back 10 games to find the last time the Lakers were held to fewer than 43 made field goals. Note that the 'over' is 21-13 in the Thunder's last 34 games played on the second of back-to-back nights including a 7-2 mark in that situation this season. They've also seen the 'over' go 43-39 in their last 82 contests played with double-revenge, as is the case here, including a 6-2 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 66-53 in the Lakers last 119 contests following a loss including a 16-11 mark this season. Take the over (8*). |
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03-03-24 | Thunder -4.5 v. Suns | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Phoenix at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. The Suns had a rough night on Saturday. Not only did they lose to the Rockets but Jusuf Nurkic and Devin Booker were forced to leave with injuries and are questionable to return on Sunday. Regardless who is on the floor, Phoenix is having a miserable time slowing the opposition right now having allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in 13 straight and 15 of its last 16 games. That should be music to the ears of the Thunder as they look to bounce back from a surprisingly loss in San Antonio to open their four-game road trip. Oklahoma City will have the rest advantage here having not played since Thursday. The Thunder are playing as well as any team in the league offensively right now having made good on 44 or more field goals in seven straight games. The Suns have reached that number just twice in their last seven contests. It's been a struggle for Phoenix just to run its offense, hoisting up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 17 of its last 22 games. That's not likely to cut it against an explosive Thunder offense on Sunday. For the Suns it would be easy to punt this one and get ready for a trip to Denver (they are 2-1 on their current homestand after all), especially if they're missing Nurkic and/or Booker. Meanwhile, the Thunder know that this trip is going to get tougher with a stop in Los Angeles to face the Lakers tomorrow night. Oklahoma City is 18-10 ATS in its last 28 games following an upset road loss by double-digits, as is the case here, including a 2-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. Better still, the Thunder are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 contests after giving up 130 points or more including a 3-1 ATS record this season. The Suns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of six points or less including an 0-3 ATS mark this season. They're also just 33-36 ATS in their last 69 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 points or more including a 6-10 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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03-02-24 | Rockets v. Suns OVER 228.5 | Top | 118-109 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. |
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03-01-24 | Wizards v. Clippers -15 | Top | 115-140 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Washington at 10:40 pm et on Friday. This sets up as a smash spot for the reeling Clippers who enter this game losers of two straight and five of their last seven games overall. Los Angeles has faced a brutal stretch of opponents lately, going up against the Timberwolves, Warriors, Thunder, Grizzlies, Kings and Lakers over its last six contests. Only the date with Memphis offered any sort of reprieve and the Clippers did take advantage and win that game (albeit failing to cover the spread). Here, the Clips catch the Wizards off an 'empty the tank' overtime loss against the Lakers last night. Yes, last night's numbers were helped along by overtime but the Wizards have now allowed four of their last six opponents to make good on at least 50 field goals. They've yielded at least 47 made field goals in seven of their last nine contests. For the Clips, I believe their problems are fixable, at least in the short-term. They suffered a major collapse in the fourth quarter against the rival Lakers two nights ago, blowing a 21-point lead. They have now held each of their last four opponents to 91 or fewer field goal attempts which is a stride in the right direction after the way they had been playing previously. The Lakers quite simply went off offensively in the fourth quarter two nights ago. I don't expect the Wizards to replicate that performance here, noting that they average just 43 made field goals per contest on the road this season while the Clippers have held the opposition to an average of 41 successful field goal attempts per game at home. The Wiz are just 46-53 ATS in their last 109 games following an ATS victory including a 12-16 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Clips are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 contests following consecutive upset losses at home, as is the case here. That situation has come up just once in the last three seasons and Los Angeles did cover the spread in its next game on that occasion as well. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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02-29-24 | Hawks v. Nets UNDER 223.5 | 97-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Hawks enter this game riding a four-game 'under' streak while the Nets have seen each of their last five contests stay 'under' the total. I look for those streaks to continue on Thursday. Atlanta is obviously a different team without Trae Young. In two games since his injury, the Hawks have actually knocked down 41 and 46 field goals but got off 90 or more field goal attempts in both of those contests. It's defensively where Atlanta has really turned it up, allowing just 35 made field goals in each of its last two games. The Hawks catch a plum draw here with the Nets reeling offensively. Brooklyn has knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in five of its last six games and 41 or less in eight of its last 10 contests. In fact, it's been a struggle for the Nets just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. They check in having hoisted up 81 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last six games. With that being said, Brooklyn has at least been slowing the opposition, allowing 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games. Meanwhile, the Hawks aren't quite the same offensive team on the road compared to at home. They have made good on 40, 42, 40, 36, 39, 43, 42 and 36 field goals over their last eight road contests. The 'under' is 17-15 in the Hawks last 32 games following a double-digit home win including a 3-1 mark in that situation this season. Brooklyn has seen the 'under' go 12-9 in its last 21 contests following a loss by 20 points or more including a 5-2 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*). |
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02-28-24 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 235.5 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Opponents are walking all over the Lakers right now, getting off 93 or more field goal attempts in each of their last five and 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Clippers should be salivating at the opportunity for an offensive breakout here after being held to 42 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven games. Paul George won't be in the lineup for the Clips on Wednesday but I still expect them to thrive offensively against a Lakers squad that has been lit up for 44 or more made field goals in 12 of its last 15 games. On the flip side, the Lakers have connected on more than 40 field goals in eight straight games and 47 or more in five of those contests. The Clippers have surprisingly been matador-like defensively in recent weeks, allowing four straight and 12 of their last 16 opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts. Note that the 'over' is 35-17 in the Lakers last 52 road games with the total set at 230 points or higher including a crisp 15-3 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 32-25 in the Clippers last 57 contests following an upset loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, including a 4-1 record in that situation over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-24 | Cavs v. Bulls UNDER 216.5 | 123-132 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Cavaliers were involved in a high-scoring barn-burner at home against the Mavericks last night, securing a 121-119 victory thanks to a last season Max Strus heave. It wasn't a banner performance defensively from Cleveland but there's reason to believe we'll see it bounce back in that regard on Wednesday. Note that last night marked only the 11th time all season the Cavs allowed an opponent to knock down 45 or more field goals. On the 10 previous occasions, they allowed an average of just 37.5 made field goals in their next contest. The Bulls aren't exactly thriving offensively right now as they've connected on 40 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. In fact, it's been tough enough for them to just get shots off let alone knock them down, hoisting up 83 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, Chicago does check in having held eight of its last 10 foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Bulls allowed an opponent to get off more than 88 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Cavs have knocked down 44 or fewer field goals in six straight contests. The 'under' is 59-51 in the Cavs last 110 road games including a 17-10 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 31-16 in the Bulls last 47 division games including a 7-4 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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02-27-24 | 76ers +12.5 v. Celtics | Top | 99-117 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The 76ers got crushed by the Bucks in front of a national audience on Sunday afternoon as their struggles without Joel Embiid continued. I do think there's a path for Philadelphia to stay competitive in Boston on Tuesday, however. The 76ers do have the ability to effectively shorten proceedings having held three straight opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts and 10 of their last 14 foes to 87 or less. The Celtics may actually be willing partners here noting that they've limited three of their last four opponents to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. Despite Philadelphia's recent struggles it has held six of its last seven opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. There's certainly plenty of room for improvement for the Sixers offense after they connected on just 36-of-97 field goal attempts in a failed comeback against Milwaukee on Sunday. Note that Philadelphia has hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in eight of its last 11 contests so it is at least finding a way to generate plenty of scoring opportunities. Note that Philadelphia has dropped the last two matchups in this series but has gone 22-12 ATS in its last 34 games playing with double-revenge. The Sixers are also 21-17 ATS in their last 38 contests after being held to 100 points or less in their previous game including a 3-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Boston is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 contests following three straight ATS wins as a favorite, as is the case here, including a 1-2 ATS record in that spot this season. The Celtics are also just 26-28 ATS in their last 54 games following eight straight victories including a 2-4 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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02-26-24 | Pistons v. Knicks UNDER 224 | Top | 111-113 | Push | 0 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Pistons have seen the 'under' cash in each of their last five games while the Knicks ride a two-game 'under' streak into Monday's contest. Both teams are coming off losses on Saturday with Detroit falling on a last-second shot against Orlando and New York suffering a blowout loss at the hands of Boston. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Monday at the Garden. Detroit has shot about as well as you could expect in two games since the All-Star break, making good on 47 and 43 field goals in losses against the Pacers and Magic. It still scored 'only' 115 and 109 points in those two contests. Note that the Pistons haven't produced 109 or more points in three straight games since January 28th to February 2nd. On the flip side, Detroit has limited five straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Knicks don't figure to test that streak, noting that they've hoisted up just 84, 79 and 82 field goal attempts in their last three contests. In fact, they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 22 of their last 28 games. On the flip side, the Knicks have held an incredible eight straight opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. While the opposition has shot well against New York in recent weeks, I believe Detroit is better-suited for volume-shooting success but I don't see it accomplishing that against the slow-paced Knicks on Monday. Note that the 'under' is 26-20 in the Pistons last 46 games following five straight 'under' results and 10-7 in their last 17 contests after suffering a loss by three points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 40-24 in New York's last 64 games following consecutive 'under' results including a 14-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 25-22 in the Knicks last 47 contests following a double-digit loss including a 5-4 record in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-25-24 | Spurs v. Jazz -6 | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. The Jazz are reeling right now, losers of five straight games both SU and ATS. Their recent struggles really came out of nowhere as they had notched consecutive impressive home wins over the Bucks and Thunder prior to their current losing skid. I see Sunday's matchup against the road-weary Spurs as an ideal 'get-right' spot. The wheels have come off for San Antonio defensively in recent weeks. It has allowed 49 or more made field goals in five of its last six games with each of its last four opponents getting off at least 92 field goal attempts. The Jazz had an awful shooting night against the Hornets on Thursday but I'm willing to chalk that up to rust following a week-long layoff due to the All-Star break. Note that Utah has still made good on more than 40 field goals in seven of its last eight contests. On the flip side, the Jazz put forth a better defensive effort in their first game following the break, holding Charlotte to just 40-of-92 shooting. Note that they've limited six of their last seven foes to 92 or fewer field goal attempts. San Antonio has been thriving in a more up-tempo environment. The Spurs check in having knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in seven of their last 10 games. Note that San Antonio is just 39-43 ATS in its last 82 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent including a 12-14 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Utah is 27-25 ATS in its last 52 home games with the total set at 230 points or higher including a 14-7 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Utah (8*). |
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02-25-24 | Bucks v. 76ers +4.5 | Top | 119-98 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Milwaukee at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Bucks are coming off a much-needed upset win in Minnesota on Friday as they snapped their two-game losing streak. Milwaukee is still just 4-7 SU and ATS over its last 11 games. It figures to be hard-pressed to cover many spreads as a favorite when it has been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in a staggering eight straight games. Over that stretch, the Bucks were held to 87 or fewer field goal attempts on five different occasions. On the flip side, they've allowed six of their last eight foes to connect on at least 43 field goals. They were fortunate that the Timberwolves didn't take advantage of their opportunities on Friday as they did hoist up 98 field goal attempts. Philadelphia brought its two-game losing streak to a halt with a 104-97 win over the Cavaliers on Friday. The 76ers have now delivered the cash in three of their last five games ATS. They haven't exactly been setting the world on fire offensively either, but they're not the ones laying points in this spot. Note that Philadelphia has connected on 40 or more field goals in nine of its last 10 contests. Defensively, the 76ers have shown improvement lately, limiting three straight and six of their last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals including just 38 and 34 over their last two contests. The Bucks check in just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset win. Meanwhile, the 76ers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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02-24-24 | Nets v. Wolves -8 | Top | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Brooklyn at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Timberwolves dropped a 112-107 home loss against the Bucks last night. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday as they host the reeling Nets. Brooklyn has had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. The Nets check in having made good on fewer than 40 field goals in four of their last five games. They've mustered up just 79, 81 and 80 field goal attempts over their last three contests. Despite the loss last night, the T'Wolves continued to play well defensively. They've limited five straight and nine of their last 10 foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. In fact, only one of their last 19 opponents has gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts. Offensively, Minnesota has been far more consistent than Brooklyn, knocking down 46 or more field goals in three of its last five games and 40 or more in 18 of its last 23 contests. Brooklyn hasn't proven to be a good bounce-back team this season, going just 11-16 ATS in 27 games following an ATS loss including a 6-9 ATS mark following consecutive ATS defeats. The Nets are also just 23-29 ATS in their last 52 contests when seeking revenge for home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 5-9 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 17-12 ATS in its last 29 games following a loss by six points or less including a 5-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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02-23-24 | Bucks v. Wolves UNDER 225.5 | Top | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Minnesota at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is undoubtedly a game the Bucks have had circled on their calendar since getting throttled 129-105 on their home floor on February 8th. The Timberwolves shot the lights out in that game but I'm not anticipating a repeat performance here. While the Bucks have struggled to find the win column lately, they've continued to do a good job of limiting opposing offenses, holding six of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Minnesota isn't a team that's going to push the pace on them, noting the T'Wolves have hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 14 of their last 18 games. On the flip side, you'd be hard-pressed to find a team that was as locked-in defensively as the T'Wolves prior to the All-Star break. They enter this game having limited four straight and an incredible 19 of their last 25 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. In fact, Minnesota is allowing just 37 made field goals per contest at home this season. The 'over' has now cashed in consecutive meetings in this series but we haven't seen three straight 'over' results since way back in 2006. The 'under' is 28-14 in Milwaukee's last 42 games as a road underdog and 12-7 in its last 19 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 32-19 in the T'Wolves last 51 home contests with the total set between 220 and 229.5 and 7-3 in their last 10 games played on three or more days' rest. Take the under (10*). |
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02-23-24 | Heat +3.5 v. Pelicans | 106-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. New Orleans looked like it emptied the tank in its first game back following the All-Star break last night, unloading on Houston in a 127-105 victory. The Pelicans played at an uncharacteristically fast pace in the game, hoisting up 96 field goal attempts. As a result, they reached 50 made field goals for a second straight game. I don't expect them to enjoy similar offensive success on Friday. Note that Miami quietly reeled off five straight ATS victories prior to the All-Star break. It checks in having limited eight straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. It has also held five of its last six foes to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the Heat are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games played on three or more days' rest and a long-term 81-59 ATS in that situation. They're also 42-28 ATS in their last 70 contests as a road underdog. Meanwhile, New Orleans is just 17-18 ATS in its last 35 games played on the second of back-to-back nights and 9-14 ATS in its last 23 contests following a win by 20 points or more over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take Miami (8*). |
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02-23-24 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +9.5 | Top | 101-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Grizzlies have to feel pretty good about their chances as they catch the Clippers in the second of back-to-backs on Friday night in Memphis. Los Angeles is struggling defensively right now having allowed six straight and eight of its last nine opponents to make good on at least 45 field goals. The Clippers have had no success slowing the opposition, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in five of their last seven contests. The Grizzlies, despite being undermanned, did show some signs of life offensively prior to the All-Star break, knocking down more than 40 field goals in four of their last six games. On the flip side they also held each of their last three opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Clippers have covered the spread in consecutive matchups in this series but haven't won three games in a row ATS over the Grizzlies since back in 2018. Note that Los Angeles is a long-term 40-54 ATS in its last 94 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 6-8 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The Clips are also just 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests following a road loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. Memphis on the other hand is 23-15 ATS in its last 38 games as a home underdog and 29-14 ATS in its last 43 contests when playing with double-revenge. Take Memphis (10*). |
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02-22-24 | Lakers v. Warriors OVER 243 | 110-128 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Golden State at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers won't have the services of Lebron James on Thursday night in San Francisco but they didn't last time out either and still defeated the Jazz by a 138-122 score, on the road no less. I don't think they mind being volume shooters one bit and the Warriors figure to afford them the opportunity to do so on Thursday. Note that Golden State has allowed 92 or more field goal attempts in four of its last six games. With that being said, the Warriors have done a fairly good job defensively but their opposition has displayed a solid scoring floor, making good on 43, 41, 44 and 43 field goals over their last four games. On the flip side, Golden State has been red hot offensively, knocking down 45 or more field goals in six straight and 13 of its last 16 games overall. Not only that but the Warriors have been pushing the pace, hoisting up 92 or more field goal attempts in nine straight contests. Meanwhile, the Lakers have been matador-like defensively, allowing five straight and 10 of their last 12 foes to make good on 45 or more field goals. They've also allowed nine of their last 10 opponents to hoist up at least 96 field goal attempts. The 'over' is 54-30 in the Lakers last 84 games as a road underdog including a 13-5 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 16-10 in the Warriors last 26 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including 7-1 this season. Take the over (8*). |
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02-22-24 | Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 229.5 | Top | 105-127 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams went into the All-Star break off 'over' results but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up for the fourth time this season on Thursday in New Orleans. Note that the three previous meetings in this series this season totalled just 205, 210 and 209 points. The Rockets had a recent stretch where they connected on 50 or more field goals in six of 11 games but have since cooled off, making good on 44 or fewer field goals in four straight contests prior to the break. Defensively, Houston has quietly been locked-in, limiting nine of its last 11 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. While the Rockets have continued to give up their share of scoring opportunities, the Pelicans don't figure to push the pace, noting that New Orleans has hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five straight games. The Pelicans did make good on 50 field goals in their most recent game against the lowly Wizards but have been held to 46 or fewer made field goals in 13 of their last 16 games overall. Like the Rockets, the Pelicans have been terrific defensively in recent weeks, holding seven of their last nine foes to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and a rock-steady 27 of their last 32 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 51-44 in the Rockets last 95 games when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent including a 10-4 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 60-40 in New Orleans' last 100 contests following an 'over' result including 19-6 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-18-24 | Western v. Eastern OVER 362 | 186-211 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between the Eastern Conference and Western Conference at 8 pm et on Sunday. We've seen some lower scoring results in the NBA All-Star Game in recent years but that's really only been due to the Elam Ending rules that were enforced, implementing a target score that would end the game. It's back to the regular rules this year, along with the conference format meaning we'll see four 12-minute quarters. Keep in mind, the last two times the East and West squared off we saw 369 and 374 points in 2016 and 2017, respectively. I don't expect to see any defense played in Sunday's showcase as the offensive talent is as good as it's ever been in today's NBA, while defense has become optional with the exception of a few select teams. Simply put, I'm not sure they can set this total high enough. Take the over (8*). |
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02-15-24 | Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 223.5 | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Memphis at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. The Grizzlies were involved in a high-scoring victory over the Rockets last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday. Memphis actually got off just 79 field goal attempts (making good on 39 of them) in that win. In fact, the Grizzlies have been held to 81 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last five games. Incredibly, Memphis has connected on 44 or fewer field goals in 27 straight and 34 of its last 35 contests representing an iron ceiling when it comes to its scoring potential. On the flip side, the Grizzlies have limited three of their last four opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals and last night marked the first time in five games they allowed an opponent to get off more than 86 field goal attempts (that was largely game-script dependent as Houston fell behind by 15 points after the first quarter). Milwaukee continues to struggle under the guidance of head coach Doc Rivers. The Bucks have been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in six straight games and continue to play without an excellent complimentary piece in Khris Middleton. The good news is, Milwaukee continues to play tough defense having held six of its last seven opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and eight of its last 11 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 10-7 in the Bucks last 17 games following an upset loss by 15 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 8-4 in the Grizzlies last 12 games as a home underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points and 8-6 in their last 14 contests following an upset victory at home. Take the under (8*). |
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02-14-24 | Clippers v. Warriors -2.5 | 130-125 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. This sets up as a smash spot for the red hot Warriors as they host the Clippers on Wednesday night. Golden State has been on an incredible offensive tear, connecting on 44 or more field goals in an incredible 13 of its last 14 games. Over its last four contests it has knocked down 47, 52, 45 and 48 field goals. The Clippers are as vulnerable as it gets defensively right now having allowed four straight opponents to make good on 45 or more field goals. In fact, they've allowed six of their last seven foes to connect on 45 or more field goals. On the flip side, Los Angeles has sunken into a shooting slump itself, making good on 37 or fewer field goals in four of its last five contests. Note that the Clips are just 14-19 in their last 33 games as a road underdog of six points or less and 24-35 ATS in their last 59 contests following a home loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. The Warriors are 41-27 in their last 68 games when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent and 28-11 ATS in their last 39 contests when playing with double-revenge, which is the situation after the Clips took the last two meetings in December. Take Golden State (8*). |
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02-14-24 | Kings v. Nuggets UNDER 229.5 | 102-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Kings are coming off a wild, high-scoring 130-125 loss in Phoenix last night extending their o/u record to 6-0-1 over their last seven games. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday as these two teams play their final game prior to the All-Star break. Sacramento has actually held five straight and eight of its last nine opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. The Nuggets aren't exactly lighting it up offensively right now as they've connected on 44 or fewer field goals in 10 of their last 12 games including 42 or fewer in four of their last six contests. On the flip side, Denver continues to hold up well defensively, limiting 10 straight and 16 of their last 18 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Better still, Denver has held an incredible 15 of its last 18 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 19-16 in the Kings last 35 games played on the second of back-to-back nights and 19-11 in their last 30 contests following six consecutive 'over' results. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 26-20 in Denver's last 46 games as a home favorite of six points or less and 15-13 in its last 28 contests following an upset loss on the road, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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02-13-24 | Kings +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Kings suffered a heart-breaking loss the last time they played in Phoenix back on January 16th as they let the Suns off the hook in a 119-117 defeat (they still covered the spread). I say they let them off the hook because they led that game by 17 points at halftime and 12 points entering the fourth quarter. I like the spot for Sacramento here as it looks to get on track following a 127-113 loss in Oklahoma City on Sunday - its third defeat in its last four games. Sacramento continues to play well offensively. It has made good on at least 42 field goals in an incredible 15 of its last 17 games, connecting on 45, 51 and 44 field goals over its last three contests. The Suns have become rather forgiving defensively, allowing at least 90 field goal attempts in six straight and 12 of their last 14 games overall. Of course, Phoenix has been red hot offensively but I do think the Kings are capable of at least limiting the Suns scoring opportunities, noting that Sacramento has held three straight and six of its last eight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts (it allows an average of 42-of-87 shooting on the road this season). Note that the Kings are 33-23 ATS in their last 56 games following a double-digit loss, including 8-5 ATS in that situation this season. They're also a long-term 52-43 ATS in their last 95 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 points or more. Meanwhile, Phoenix is just 17-22 ATS in its last 39 games played on two days' rest (note that this is the first time it has had two days between games since January 16th-19th). The Suns are also just 15-17 ATS in their last 32 home games with the total set at 230 points or higher. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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02-12-24 | Wolves v. Clippers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 121-100 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. I think this game has the potential to have an 'old school' feel as the Timberwolves take the court for the first time since last Thursday while the Clippers wrap up a three-game homestand that has seen them go 0-2 ATS so far. Minnesota's most recent game found its way 'over' the total thanks to a lights out shooting performance in Milwaukee. The pace wasn't necessarily there as the T'Wolves hoisted up 87 field goal attempts in a 129-105 rout. Keep in mind, Minnesota has gotten off 90 or fewer field goal attempts in 11 of its last 12 games and averages just 86 per game on the road this season. Also note that the T'Wolves have knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in six of their last nine contests. On the flip side, Minnesota is locked-in defensively having held eight of its last nine opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals in regulation time. The Clippers have had a tough enough time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down lately. They've gotten off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. You would have to go back six contests to find the last time they hoisted up more than 89 field goal attempts. They've been held to 38 or fewer made field goals in four of their last seven games. Los Angeles is coming off an uncharacteristically bad defensive effort against Detroit on Saturday. Note that the Clippers have allowed three of their last four foes to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. I do think the fact that Minnesota hasn't played since Thursday and that it plays at a relatively slow pace works in Los Angeles' favor here. Keep in mind, the Clips have limited the opposition to just 41 made field goals per game at home this season. Note that the 'under' is 6-3 in Minnesota's last nine games played on three or more days' rest and 24-21 in its last 45 contests following an upset win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-15 in Los Angeles' last 35 games following a victory by six points or less and 29-20 in its last 49 home games with the total set between 220 and 229.5 points, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take the under (10*). |
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02-11-24 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 226.5 | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Celtics are coming off a wild, high-scoring game against the Wizards on Friday. Interestingly, they haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since January 8th and 10th. While Boston continues to give up too many scoring opportunities (that's been somewhat game-script dependent lately), it has held four straight and 12 of its last 14 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals. That's not all that stingy of a number by any means but considering the Celtics have allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in 10 straight games, it's worth noting. It's never easy to bait the Heat into a track meet. Miami has gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 12 of its last 15 games and averages only 86 per game at home this season. The Heat are once again locked-in defensively, limiting five straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals entering Sunday's contest. Note that the 'under' is 31-22 in Boston's last 53 games as a road favorite of six points or less and 26-13 in its last 39 contests following a victory by six points or less. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-9 in Miami's last 22 games as a home favorite of six points or less and 11-9 in its last 20 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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02-10-24 | Suns v. Warriors +2 | Top | 112-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Phoenix at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. The Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season right now but so are the Suns. I do think Golden State is well-positioned to keep it rolling as it returns home on Saturday. Note that the Warriors have been red hot offensively, connecting on 43 or more field goals in 12 straight games including 47 or more in eight of those contests. They'll be facing a rather forgiving Suns defense on Saturday, noting that Phoenix has allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games. Golden State on the other hand has limited four of its last six foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. More impressively, the Warriors have held five of their last six opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. The Suns are on a tear offensively but their shots have also been falling at an unsustainable rate as they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five straight and 12 of their last 14 contests. Phoenix is a long-term 15-31 ATS in its last 46 games and 1-5 ATS this season off a home win by 10 points or more, as is the case here. The Suns are also 12-16 ATS in their last 28 contests following three straight ATS victories. Golden State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 contests playing with triple-revenge (off three straight losses against an opponent). Take Golden State (10*). |
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02-09-24 | Hawks v. 76ers +4.5 | 127-121 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The 76ers check in 0-3 on their current homestand (which wraps up tonight), having lost seven of their last eight games overall. The wheels have clearly come off since Joel Embiid went down to injury but I don't expect Philadelphia to fold the tent. This is an important game as they look to salvage the finale of this homestand and I'm confident they'll give the Hawks all they can handle. Note that Atlanta defeated Philadelphia 139-132 in overtime at home back on January 10th. Atlanta checks in off consecutive losses including a taxing 125-117 loss in Boston two nights ago in which it battled hard for four quarters but ultimately fell just short. My concern with the Hawks here is their defensive play. They've allowed seven of their last eight opponents to knock down at least 47 field goals. The 76ers are primed for a breakout offensively as they've been pushing the pace but the shots simply haven't been falling. Note that they've gotten off 93 or more field goal attempts in four straight games. Atlanta is just 9-19 ATS in its last 28 games as a road favorite of six points or less and a miserable 30-61 ATS in its last 91 contests following an ATS win. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 29-15 ATS in its last 44 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent and 13-3 ATS in its last 16 contests following three straight ATS defeats. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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02-09-24 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 242.5 | Top | 127-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams just met back on January 10th in Atlanta and produced a total of 271 points (aided by an overtime period). I'm anticipating another high-scoring affair in Friday's rematch. The Hawks are on a scoring tear right now. They've connected on 51, 44, 53, 49, 55 (overtime game against Golden State), 51 and 43 field goals over their last seven contests. They've also hoisted up at least 93 field goal attempts in 10 straight games. The 76ers don't figure to stand in their way on Friday. Philadelphia has sagged defensively in the absence of Joel Embiid, allowing six straight and eight of their last nine opponents to knock down at least 42 field goals. On the flip side, I do think it's only a matter of time before the Sixers shots start falling. They've gotten off 93 or more field goal attempts in four straight games, making good on 47, 44, 40 and 41 over that stretch. The door is wide open for a breakout performance here, noting that Atlanta has allowed five straight and seven of its last eight opponents to connect on at least 47 field goals. Note that the 'over' is 22-18 in the Hawks last 40 games as a road favorite. The 'over' is also 16-11 in the Sixers last 27 home games with the total set at 230 points or higher. Take the over (10*). |
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02-08-24 | Wolves v. Bucks UNDER 228.5 | 129-105 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Neither of these teams are playing their best basketball right now. The Timberwolves check in 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS over their last 10 games while the Bucks have lost four of their last five contests both SU and ATS. Minnesota did give up 129 points in an overtime defeat in Chicago two nights ago but remains locked-in defensively having held five straight and nine of its last 11 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals in regulation time. It might be catching Milwaukee at the right time as Khris Middleton is among those sidelined while Damian Lillard is questionable to play on Thursday after missing Tuesday's contest in Phoenix. Offensively, it's been a bit of a slog for the T'Wolves as they've connected on 42 or fewer field goals in three straight and six of their last eight contests. Here, they'll run into a Bucks squad that should have one of their key stoppers back on the floor in Brook Lopez after he missed a few games due to personal reasons. While Milwaukee certainly hasn't been dominant defensively during its recent slide, it has still limited eight of its last 10 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 22-15 in the T'Wolves last 37 games following an upset loss including 7-2 this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-6 in the Bucks last 16 home games with the line set between +3 and -3. Take the under (8*). |
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02-07-24 | Hawks v. Celtics -12 | 117-125 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. First off, it's worth noting that the straight-up winner has covered the spread in 17 straight meetings between these two teams. I look for that trend to continue on Wednesday. Atlanta had an off day on Tuesday but you have to wonder how much it has in the tank as it heads on the road for this two-game trip. Note that the Hawks have been involved in six straight wild, high-scoring affairs with five of those contests decided by nine points or less and three settled by five or less. The Celtics on the other hand are coming off what amounted to little more than a glorified scrimmage against the undermanned Grizzlies at home on Sunday. In fact, Boston will be playing just its third game in the last eight nights, all at home. The Celtics have turned things around defensively over their last two contests, holding the Lakers and Grizzlies to 38 and 35 made field goals, respectively. It's a much different story for the Hawks as they've allowed six of their last seven opponents to knock down at least 46 field goals in regulation time despite four of those six foes hoisting up fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Atlanta checks in 27-45 ATS in its last 72 games as a road underdog and 17-28 ATS in its last 45 contests following a home loss. Boston is 52-36 ATS in its last 88 contests following a home win and 12-10 ATS in its last 22 games after a home win by 20 points or more, including a 3-1 ATS mark this season. Take Boston (8*). |
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02-07-24 | Warriors v. 76ers +2.5 | Top | 127-104 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Golden State at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The 76ers have lost two games in a row and six of their last seven overall as they struggled to adapt to life without Joel Embiid. I don't think Philadelphia is as bad as it has looked lately, however, and do think it will get things straightened out sooner rather than later. Note that the 76ers opponents have been shooting the lights out during their current slide. The good news is, the Sixers have continued to limit the opposition's scoring opportunities, allowing 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six games. On the flip side, it's only a matter of time before the Sixers start cashing in on their own opportunities, noting that they've hoisted up 94, 96 and 93 field goal attempts in their last three contests. The Warriors have gotten a little too loose for my liking defensively, allowing nine of their last 14 opponents to get off at least 89 field goal attempts. While it looks like Golden State has been lighting it up offensively during its current 3-1 run, it has actually been fairly muted, connecting on 44, 46, 46 and 43 field goals in regulation time over that stretch (still impressive numbers but not overwhelmingly so). For Golden State this will be its fifth game in five different cities in the last nine nights. Philadelphia on the other hand has the advantage of staying home for a third straight contest. Note that the Warriors are just 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games as a road favorite of six points or less and 10-13 ATS in their last 23 contests following a double-digit road win. Meanwhile, the 76ers are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Philadelphia is also 21-17 ATS in its last 38 contests following a double-digit loss. Finally, we'll note that the favorite has covered the spread in three straight meetings in this series. It hasn't done so in four consecutive matchups between these two teams since 2010-12. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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02-07-24 | Raptors v. Hornets OVER 225.5 | 123-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors have seen each of their last three games go 'over' the total while the Hornets are coming off a high-scoring affair against the Lakers as well. I expect more of the same as these two struggling teams match up on Wednesday. The Raptors look like a tired team right now, certainly disinterested in playing much defense having allowed 47 or more made field goals in regulation time in six of their last nine contests and 44 or more in eight of those games. Not only that but they've had no success (or interest in) slowing their opponents' pace, allowing seven of their last eight foes to hoist up at least 93 field goal attempts. The Hornets have been pushing the pace a little more lately, getting off 90 or more field goal attempts in three of their last four contests. Similar to Toronto, Charlotte has been getting lashed defensively, allowing seven straight and 10 of its last 12 opponents to knock down 44 or more field goals. Note that the 'over' is 17-15 in the Raptors last 32 games as a road favorite and 5-1 in their last six contests after giving up 135 points or more in their previous game. Meanwhile, the 'over' is a long-term 59-50 in the Hornets last 109 games with the total set between 220 and 229.5 points. The 'under' cashed in the most recent matchup between these two teams on December 18th but we haven't seen consecutive 'under' results in this series over the last six meetings. Take the over (8*). |
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02-06-24 | Mavs v. Nets +2.5 | 119-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams had very different results last night as Dallas defeated Philadelphia in blowout fashion while Brooklyn dropped a double-digit decision against Golden State. I look for the Nets to bounce back on Tuesday as they look to avenge an earlier five-point loss against the Mavs in Dallas. Note that Dallas has now won four straight meetings in this series. It hasn't delivered five consecutive wins over Brooklyn since 2009-2011. The Nets have given up way too many scoring opportunities over the last couple of games, yielding 96 and 93 field goal attempts against the 76ers and Warriors, respectively. They get a bit of a reprieve here as the Mavs haven't been pushing the pace, getting off 69, 76, 81 and 87 field goal attempts over their last four games. On the flip side, Dallas has allowed six of its last seven opponents to knock down at least 43 field goals. Brooklyn has held 10 of its last 12 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Dallas is just 15-17 ATS in its last 32 games played on the second of back-to-back nights and 21-29 ATS in its last 50 contests following a road victory. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is 28-23 ATS in its last 51 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent and 8-5 ATS when coming off a home loss this season. Take Brooklyn (8*). |
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02-05-24 | Kings v. Cavs UNDER 235.5 | Top | 110-136 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. Sacramento has posted consecutive 'over' results as it wraps up its long seven-game road trip on Monday in Cleveland. I expect a different story to unfold here. The Kings have been ultra-efficient offensively but it's not as if they've been playing at a break-neck pace. They check in having connected on 43 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games. Here they'll run into a Cavaliers squad that is locked-in defensively and has been for weeks. Cleveland has held an incredible nine of its last 11 opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, the Cavs have certainly been good but aren't exactly blowing the doors off the opposition, making good on 46 or fewer field goals in 11 of their last 13 contests. The Kings, while not known for their defensive prowess, have been terrific at that end of the floor as well, limiting four of their last five foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 38-25 in the Kings last 63 games as a road underdog and 21-12 in their last 33 contests as a road underdog of six points or less. The 'under' is also a modest 26-24 in their last 50 games after consecutive 'over' results. Meanwhile, the Cavs have seen the 'under' go 12-6 in their last 18 contests with the total set at 230 points or higher. The 'under' is also 19-12 in their last 31 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-04-24 | Grizzlies v. Celtics -16.5 | 91-131 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Memphis at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. This is a steep line even by today's NBA standards but I think it will prove too short. Memphis is missing a number of key contributors right now and checks in having lost four straight games, going 2-2 ATS over that stretch. Note that the one thing the Grizzlies have been able to hang their hat on at times this season has been their defense but even that has sagged lately. Memphis has allowed its last four opponents to knock down 44, 43, 41 and 46 field goals. That's despite three of those four opponents getting off 86 or fewer field goal attempts. Boston figures to push it much more on Sunday, noting that the Celtics have hoisted up 93 field goal attempts per game on average at home this season. Boston is inexplicably mired in a four-game ATS losing streak. The Celtics do have the rest advantage here having not played since Thursday's no-show against the Lebron and A.D.-less Lakers. On a positive note, Boston has connected on more than 40 field goals in six of its last seven games. The problem defensively has been the fact that the Celtics have been far too loose, allowing more than 90 field goal attempts in seven straight games. The Grizzlies don't figure to push the pace here, however, noting that Memphis has gotten off 90 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of its last 11 games. The Grizzlies are just 25-37 ATS in their last 62 games as a road underdog and 17-20 ATS in their last 37 games following a home loss. Meanwhile, the Celtics are 38-23 ATS in their last 61 games after scoring 105 points or less in their previous game and 19-13 ATS in their last 32 contests following an upset loss at home. Take Boston (8*). |
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02-04-24 | Clippers v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | 103-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Miami at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Kawhi Leonard called out his team for its poor defensive play in Friday's 136-125 win in Detroit. In that contest, the Clippers allowed 45 made field goals for a second straight game. While the Clips haven't exactly been locked-in defensively on their current road trip, it's not as if they've been getting lit up either. Note that Los Angeles has held 10 straight and 17 of its last 18 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals. The Heat have rebounded following a seven-game losing streak to deliver consecutive wins over the Kings and Wizards. In those two contests they allowed the opposition to knock down just 41 and 37 field goals. Terry Rozier in particular has shown a renewed commitment to defense, even if it has come at the expense of his offensive production. Offensively, the Heat remain capped by a relatively low ceiling, noting they've connected on 42 or fewer field goals in an incredible 18 straight games. You would have to go back five games to find the last time they got off more than 88 field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 16-6 in the Clippers last 22 games following a win but non-cover and 7-4 in their last 11 contests after scoring 125 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-6 in the Heat's last 15 games following consecutive ATS wins as favorites and 12-9 in their last 21 contests as a home underdog of six points or less. Take the under (8*). |
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02-03-24 | Bucks v. Mavs OVER 246.5 | 129-117 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. The Bucks will certainly be in a foul mood entering this game after they dropped consecutive matchups in Denver and Portland to open their current road trip. I believe this contest has track meet potential as the Mavericks also look to bounce back following a drubbing at the hands of the Timberwolves last time out. Milwaukee continues to push the pace having hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in 12 of its last 16 games. While it hasn't been as consistent shooting-wise as we've become accustomed to it has still managed to connect on 45 or more field goals in three of its last five games and seven of its last 11 contests. Dallas is just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS over its last seven contests. The Mavs rested a number of players in their most recent game in Minnesota on Wednesday and struggled mightily as a result. Note that prior to that game, the Mavs had connected on 43 or more field goals in four of their last five games. They continue to have a tough time slowing the opposition, allowing four of their last five foes to knock down at least 45 field goals. You would have to go back nine games to find the last time they held an opponent to 40 or fewer made field goals. The first meeting between these two teams was a high-scoring one as they combined to score 257 points. Note that the 'over' is 26-21 in the Bucks last 47 games following an upset loss and 12-10 in their last 22 contests following consecutive defeats. Meanwhile, the Mavs have seen the 'over' go 24-17 in their lat 41 games following a double-digit loss and 23-18 in their last 41 contests after scoring 100 points or less in their previous game. Take the over (8*). |
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02-03-24 | Kings v. Bulls -1.5 | 123-115 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Sacramento at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Kings drilled the Pacers in Indiana last night as they were in a smash spot, rested and revenge-minded facing a Pacers team that had just suffered an emotional loss in New York the night previous. This is a much different situation as the Kings play the second of back-to-backs against a rested Bulls squad that last played on Wednesday, when they delivered a 117-110 win in Charlotte. Chicago has been playing reasonably well, going 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS over its last seven contests. The Bulls have impressively held seven of their last nine opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, they've connected on 48, 47, 45, 47, 42, 38 and 45 field goals over their last seven contests. They figure to get their opportunities against a road-weary Kings squad here. Sacramento has allowed 42 or more made field goals in seven of its last nine games. While the Kings took full advantage of a tired Pacers team last night, connecting on 51 field goals, they've actually been limited to 43 or fewer made field goals in four of their last six contests. Note that Sacramento has won three straight meetings in this series ATS but hasn't delivered four or more consecutive ATS victories over the Bulls since 2013-14. The Kings check in 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a double-digit road win and 15-17 ATS in their last 32 road contests with the line set between +3 and -3. Chicago is 29-21 ATS in its last 50 games as a home favorite of six points or less and 25-21 ATS in its last 46 contests following a road win. Take Chicago (8*). |
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02-02-24 | Magic v. Wolves UNDER 212 | 108-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This game figures to have a bit of an old-school feel as the Magic and Timberwolves have proven to be two of the more slow-paced teams in the league while also proving elite defensively. Orlando has held five of its last six opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts. Going back further, nine of its last 12 opponents have gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts. It's a similar story with the T'Wolves as they've limited four of their last five foes to fewer than 80 field goal attempts. In fact, of Minnesota's last 18 opponents, only five have managed to connect on 40 or more field goals. As I mentioned, both teams are also playing at a slow pace themselves. Orlando has gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of its last 11 contests. Minnesota has hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games. The first meeting between these two teams totalled just 205 points back in early January. Note that the 'under' is 19-14 in Orlando's last 33 games following a road win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 17-8 in Minnesota's last 25 games as a home favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points and 6-1 in its last seven contests following an ATS win as a double-digit favorite (including a perfect 3-0 this season). Take the under (8*). |
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02-02-24 | Suns v. Hawks OVER 247 | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Friday. This projects as a track meet between the Suns and Hawks in Atlanta on Friday. Few teams are as locked-in offensively as the Suns right now as they've knocked down more than 40 field goals in 11 straight games, connecting on at least 46 field goals in eight of those contests. They draw a smash spot on Friday as the Hawks have been matador-like defensively, allowing their last six opponents to make good on 43, 43, 51, 51, 41 and 48 field goals. Note that three of the Hawks last five foes have gotten off at least 90 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Atlanta is quietly thriving offensively, knocking down 51, 44 and 53 field goals over its last three games. It was only a matter of time before the shots started falling and the Hawks preferred pace is fast, noting they've hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts in 14 of their last 17 contests. Once stingy, the Suns have been far more forgiving defensively of late, allowing seven of their last nine foes to get off at least 92 field goal attempts. Note that the 'over' is 22-11 in the Suns last 33 road games with the total set at 230 points or higher. The 'over' is also a perfect 8-0 in their last eight contests following a win by 15 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 15-12 in the Hawks last 27 games as a home underdog and 20-11 in their last 31 contests after scoring 136 points or more in their previous game. Take the over (8*). |
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02-02-24 | Clippers v. Pistons OVER 237.5 | Top | 136-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Clippers may be known for their defensive prowess but it's been their offense that has paced them to 30+ wins this season. Los Angeles enters this game on a tear offensively having knocked down 45 or more field goals in eight of their last 11 games. The Clips are also playing at a faster pace than we've been accustomed to seeing, hoisting up 95 or more field goal attempts in three of the first four games on their current road trip. They should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities on Friday as the Pistons have allowed 21 of their last 28 opponents to connect on at least 44 field goals. That's not to mention the fact that eight of their last 11 foes have gotten off 90+ field goal attempts. The question is whether Detroit can produce enough to help this total along. I believe it can. Note that the Pistons have made good on 43 or more field goals in eight of their last 10 games. They're catching the Clips at the right time as they've allowed six of their last seven foes to knock down at least 42 field goals and haven't exactly been smothering in nature, giving up 90+ field goal attempts in five of their last six contests. Note that the 'over' is 33-25 in the Clippers last 58 games following a double-digit win, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 27-22 in Detroit's last 49 contests after posting consecutive ATS victories. Take the over (10*). |
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02-01-24 | Pacers v. Knicks -3.5 | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Indiana at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. This is undoubtedly a game the Knicks have had circled on their calendar since dropping an ugly 140-126 decision in Indiana back on December 30th. Since then, New York has gone 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS over its last 16 games. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team that's more locked-in defensively than the Knicks right now. They enter Thursday's action having held 10 straight and 15 of their last 16 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. The Pacers obviously pose a stiff challenge as they can score with the best of them but I think the Knicks can make them uncomfortable here, noting New York has limited four straight and 15 of its last 18 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Knicks have been scoring in bunches lately, knocking down 44 or more field goals in five of their last six contests. Indiana, meanwhile, has allowed 44 or more made field goals in seven of its last 10 games. Note that the Pacers are just 29-37 ATS in their last 66 games following a road loss and 5-11 ATS in their last 16 contests after an ATS win but SU loss on the road, as is the case here. The Knicks are 25-21 ATS in their last 46 contests as a home favorite of six points or less and 26-19 ATS in their last 45 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent. Take New York (8*). |
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01-31-24 | Magic v. Spurs OVER 227.5 | 108-98 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Magic offense is flashing right now, showing steady improvement in each of its last three games. It draws a mouth-watering matchup on Wednesday as the Spurs have been matador-like defensively allowing 47, 49, 48, 54, 38, 45 and 46 made field goals over their last seven contests. Orlando tweaked its starting five last time out and scored a whopping 77 first half points in an eventual 131-129 loss in Dallas. I do think the Magic are vulnerable defensively right now as they've allowed their last four opponents to knock down 45, 42, 41 and 43 field goals. That's not bad on the face of it but is concerning when you consider three of those opponents hoisted up 80 or fewer field goal attempts. The Spurs have been reasonably matchup-proof when it comes to pace, attempting more than 90 field goals in seven of their last 10 games. Offensively, San Antonio has quietly been on a roll, connecting on 42 or more field goals in seven straight games. Note that the 'over' is 23-17 in Orlando's last 40 games as a favorite and 35-20 in its last 55 contests following consecutive ATS victories. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 29-14 in the Spurs last 43 games as a home underdog of six points or less and 9-5 in their last 14 contests following three straight 'under' results, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). |
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Sean Murphy NBA Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-26-24 | Wolves v. Suns -4 | 126-109 | Loss | -109 | 39 h 33 m | Show | |
04-26-24 | Clippers v. Mavs OVER 209 | Top | 90-101 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 51 m | Show |
04-25-24 | Nuggets v. Lakers +1.5 | 112-105 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
04-25-24 | Knicks v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 36 h 42 m | Show |
04-23-24 | Mavs -2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 96-93 | Win | 100 | 40 h 46 m | Show |
04-21-24 | Mavs v. Clippers OVER 222.5 | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
04-20-24 | Lakers v. Nuggets -7 | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 36 h 17 m | Show | |
04-17-24 | Hawks +3 v. Bulls | 116-131 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
04-16-24 | Lakers v. Pelicans | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
04-14-24 | Bucks v. Magic OVER 214.5 | Top | 88-113 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
04-12-24 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 219.5 | 114-109 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
04-11-24 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Kings | 135-123 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
04-10-24 | Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
04-09-24 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 226.5 | Top | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
04-07-24 | Kings v. Nets OVER 220 | 107-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
04-07-24 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
04-06-24 | Cavs v. Lakers OVER 228.5 | 97-116 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
04-05-24 | Wolves v. Suns UNDER 219 | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
04-04-24 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 210 | 109-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
04-04-24 | Kings v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 109-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show |
04-03-24 | Cavs v. Suns -5.5 | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
04-03-24 | Raptors +15.5 v. Wolves | 85-133 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
04-02-24 | Knicks +3 v. Heat | 99-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
04-02-24 | Bucks v. Wizards +13.5 | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
04-01-24 | Blazers v. Magic OVER 207.5 | 103-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
03-31-24 | Heat v. Wizards UNDER 218 | Top | 119-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
03-30-24 | Grizzlies v. Magic OVER 207.5 | 88-118 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
03-29-24 | 76ers v. Cavs UNDER 212.5 | 114-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
03-27-24 | Clippers -5.5 v. 76ers | 108-107 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
03-27-24 | Cavs v. Hornets UNDER 206.5 | Top | 111-118 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
03-26-24 | Lakers v. Bucks OVER 232 | Top | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
03-25-24 | 76ers v. Kings UNDER 222 | 96-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
03-25-24 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets OVER 213.5 | Top | 103-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
03-24-24 | Warriors v. Wolves OVER 218.5 | 110-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
03-23-24 | Kings v. Magic UNDER 216 | 109-107 | Push | 0 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
03-22-24 | 76ers +8 v. Lakers | 94-101 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
03-22-24 | Pacers v. Warriors UNDER 240 | Top | 123-111 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
03-21-24 | Hawks +10 v. Suns | 115-128 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
03-20-24 | 76ers v. Suns UNDER 220.5 | 102-115 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
03-18-24 | Wolves v. Jazz +7.5 | Top | 114-104 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
03-17-24 | Hawks +9.5 v. Clippers | 110-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
03-17-24 | Nuggets v. Mavs +2.5 | 105-107 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
03-16-24 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 237 | Top | 128-121 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
03-16-24 | Cavs v. Rockets UNDER 215.5 | 103-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
03-15-24 | Clippers v. Pelicans -6 | 104-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
03-14-24 | Mavs v. Thunder -9.5 | Top | 119-126 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
03-13-24 | Nets v. Magic UNDER 206 | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
03-12-24 | Bucks v. Kings +2.5 | Top | 94-129 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
03-11-24 | Suns v. Cavs +6.5 | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
03-10-24 | 76ers +5.5 v. Knicks | 79-73 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
03-10-24 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 229 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
03-09-24 | Jazz +12.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 121-142 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
03-09-24 | Celtics -5.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-107 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
03-08-24 | Magic v. Knicks +1 | Top | 74-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
03-07-24 | Heat v. Mavs UNDER 231.5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
03-06-24 | Kings +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 130-120 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
03-06-24 | Grizzlies v. 76ers UNDER 209.5 | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
03-05-24 | Pelicans v. Raptors OVER 228 | 139-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
03-04-24 | Thunder v. Lakers OVER 238.5 | 104-116 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
03-03-24 | Thunder -4.5 v. Suns | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
03-02-24 | Rockets v. Suns OVER 228.5 | Top | 118-109 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
03-01-24 | Wizards v. Clippers -15 | Top | 115-140 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
02-29-24 | Hawks v. Nets UNDER 223.5 | 97-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
02-28-24 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 235.5 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
02-28-24 | Cavs v. Bulls UNDER 216.5 | 123-132 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
02-27-24 | 76ers +12.5 v. Celtics | Top | 99-117 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
02-26-24 | Pistons v. Knicks UNDER 224 | Top | 111-113 | Push | 0 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
02-25-24 | Spurs v. Jazz -6 | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
02-25-24 | Bucks v. 76ers +4.5 | Top | 119-98 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
02-24-24 | Nets v. Wolves -8 | Top | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
02-23-24 | Bucks v. Wolves UNDER 225.5 | Top | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
02-23-24 | Heat +3.5 v. Pelicans | 106-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
02-23-24 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +9.5 | Top | 101-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
02-22-24 | Lakers v. Warriors OVER 243 | 110-128 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
02-22-24 | Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 229.5 | Top | 105-127 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
02-18-24 | Western v. Eastern OVER 362 | 186-211 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
02-15-24 | Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 223.5 | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
02-14-24 | Clippers v. Warriors -2.5 | 130-125 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
02-14-24 | Kings v. Nuggets UNDER 229.5 | 102-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show | |
02-13-24 | Kings +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
02-12-24 | Wolves v. Clippers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 121-100 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
02-11-24 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 226.5 | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
02-10-24 | Suns v. Warriors +2 | Top | 112-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
02-09-24 | Hawks v. 76ers +4.5 | 127-121 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
02-09-24 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 242.5 | Top | 127-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
02-08-24 | Wolves v. Bucks UNDER 228.5 | 129-105 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
02-07-24 | Hawks v. Celtics -12 | 117-125 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
02-07-24 | Warriors v. 76ers +2.5 | Top | 127-104 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
02-07-24 | Raptors v. Hornets OVER 225.5 | 123-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
02-06-24 | Mavs v. Nets +2.5 | 119-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
02-05-24 | Kings v. Cavs UNDER 235.5 | Top | 110-136 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
02-04-24 | Grizzlies v. Celtics -16.5 | 91-131 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
02-04-24 | Clippers v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | 103-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
02-03-24 | Bucks v. Mavs OVER 246.5 | 129-117 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
02-03-24 | Kings v. Bulls -1.5 | 123-115 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
02-02-24 | Magic v. Wolves UNDER 212 | 108-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
02-02-24 | Suns v. Hawks OVER 247 | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
02-02-24 | Clippers v. Pistons OVER 237.5 | Top | 136-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
02-01-24 | Pacers v. Knicks -3.5 | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
01-31-24 | Magic v. Spurs OVER 227.5 | 108-98 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 37 m | Show |