Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-23-21 | Wolves v. Bucks -10.5 | Top | 112-139 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. After an extended slump, we've seen an unwinding of the Bucks of sorts in recent days as they've delivered blowout wins over the Thunder and Kings. I look for that trend to continue here as they host the T'Wolves on Tuesday night. Minnesota rallied to nearly upset the Knicks on the road on Sunday night but ultimately fell short and now ride a four-game SU and ATS losing streak. It hasn't proven to be a good bounce-back team in recent years, going 7-17 ATS after dropping the cash in five or six of its last seven games over the last two seasons and 20-34 ATS following an ATS loss over the same period. Meanwhile, the Bucks are an excellent positive momentum play having gone 52-33 ATS after winning two of their last three games over the last three seasons. Despite their recent struggles, they're still a terrific 57-37 ATS at home over the last three seasons. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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02-22-21 | Wizards v. Lakers UNDER 226 | 127-124 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Monday. We're not surprisingly working with a high total in this one as the Wizards play at a faster pace than any team in the NBA while the Lakers are in bounce-back mode following Saturday night's loss to the Heat - their second loss in a row. I'm not sure we'll see a track meet, however, for a number of reasons. Note that the 'under' has gone 34-15 when the Lakers come off an upset home loss over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just north of 119 points. Keep in mind, the Lakers rank tops in the league in defensive efficiency this season. With Anthony Davis sidelined, they're going to need to lean on their defense to snap out of their mini-skid. While the Wizards won't be thought of as a defensive juggernaut anytime soon, they do rank in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency away from home this season. They're catching the Lakers at the right time as only five teams have been worse than Los Angeles in terms of offensive efficiency over their last three games. I'm not sure that the Wiz want to awake a sleeping giant in this one by baiting them into a high-scoring affair. Note that Washington's recent 6-4 SU/ATS run has coincided with a 3-7 o/u stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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02-21-21 | Nets +5.5 v. Clippers | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Clippers in Friday's victory over the red hot Jazz but I won't hesitate to go the other way on Sunday as they find themselves in a much different situation, favored against the surging Nets. I like what I've seen from Brooklyn lately, as it has played a very cohesive brand of basketball, even with Kevin Durant sidelined. There's little reason for the Nets to roll over in this spot as they've had ample time to get down off their pedestal following Thursday's rout of Lebron and the Lakers. The Clips have been inconsistent all season and should get the Nets best shot in this one, especially with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George back in the fold. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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02-20-21 | Heat v. Lakers UNDER 213 | Top | 96-94 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
NBA TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Los Angeles at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game in last Saturday night's ABC showcase game but I'm confident we'll see a much different type of game unfold this week as the Heat travel to Los Angeles to take on the Lakers. We won with Miami in Thursday's win in Sacramento. This is obviously a tougher matchup, even with the Lakers missing some key cogs. Jimmy Butler admitted yesterday that his team just 'isn't very good' right now. I believe the Heat will have some trouble stringing together quality possessions in this game. Meanwhile, the Lakers are playing without Anthony Davis, obviously striking a major hit at both ends of the floor, but particularly on offense. While we can expect a better performance than we saw on Thursday, it's worth noting that game saw 117 first half points but still didn't come close to toppling the total. I'm anticipating some old school basketball on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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02-19-21 | Jazz v. Clippers +4 | Top | 112-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Utah at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We saw plenty of bettors looking to fade the Jazz in the front half of this two-game set in Los Angeles but were ultimately burned as Utah pulled away against the Kawhi Leonard and Paul George-less Clippers. I believe now is the time to back the Clips as they've been an excellent bounce-back team in recent years and whether they have Kawhi or George back on the floor or not, I like them to give the Jazz a run on Friday night. Note that Los Angeles is an impressive 24-11 ATS after a loss over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average margin of 12.5 points. They've also gone 17-7 ATS after giving up 105+ points in three straight games, as is the case here, winning those contests by an average margin of over 10 points. The Jazz found themselves in a similar situation to this back at the end of January as they looked to defeat the Nuggets on the road for a second time in two weeks. After notching a 109-105 victory on January 17th they fell by 11 points in the return trip on January 31st. Similarly, I look for Utah to get tripped up here, noting it was also riding a long winning streak (11 games) entering that contest. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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02-18-21 | Heat -1 v. Kings | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Sacramento at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. Bettors have seemingly lost faith in the Heat, and perhaps for good reason as they've dropped the cash in three straight games. They've generally been a terrific bounce-back team in recent years, however, and I see this as a fine 'get right' spot against a reeling Kings squad. Note that Miami is 30-18 ATS after a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.5 points in those games. They've also gotten stronger the longer road trips go on, posting a 37-18 ATS mark in road games after playing at least four straight games away from home. The Kings have dropped four games in a row, both SU and ATS, and check in just 7-10 SU at home this season. The Heat need this win and I'm confident they'll get it. Take Miami (10*). |
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02-17-21 | Blazers v. Pelicans -3 | Top | 126-124 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Portland at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Pelicans 'got right' with a win in Memphis last night and we were along for the ride, backing them in that victory. Now New Orleans makes the quick trip home to host the Blazers on Wednesday night and I like the Pelicans to deliver the cash again. For Portland, this will be its third game in four nights, in three different cities. The Blazers have undoubtedly been playing well but this might be the spot where tired legs catch up with them. New Orleans ran into a flat spot in its schedule last weekend, culminating with a double-digit loss in Detroit on Sunday night. I liked the way it bounced back last night in Memphis and expect to see some carry-over from that performance here. The Pels' are quite simply catching the Blazers in the right place at the right time as far as I'm concerned. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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02-16-21 | Pelicans +1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 144-113 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Memphis at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. In our fade of the Pelicans on Sunday night in Detroit we made note of the fact that it would be a very difficult matchup to get up for. That turned out to be exactly the case as New Orleans was flat and ultimately suffered an 11-point loss. This is a different story altogether as the Pelicans always seem to get up for the Grizzlies with the Zion vs. Ja matchup taking center stage. Note that New Orleans has won four straight meetings in this series, most recently grabbing a 118-109 decision on February 6th. Also note that Stan Van Gundy-coached teams have gone 117-84 ATS off a double-digit loss and 95-67 ATS after losing three of their last four games, as is the case here with the Pelicans. While New Orleans hasn't been a good road team this season, going 4-10 SU, the Grizzlies haven't been much better at home, going 4-7 SU. I believe a letdown is in order for the Grizz after they won by 14 points in Sacramento on Sunday. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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02-15-21 | Hawks -1.5 v. Knicks | Top | 112-123 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over New York at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Knicks have caught favorable matchups in their last two games, going on the road against a Bradley Beal-less Wizards squad on Friday before hosting a struggling Rockets team on Saturday. This should be a different story on Monday as Atlanta will be highly-motivated off back-to-back losses and with revenge in mind after the Knicks won by a 113-108 score in Atlanta back on January 4th (we won with New York in that game). Note that Tom Thibodeau-coached teams (the Knicks in this case) have gone 5-18 ATS in home games following a 20+ point win at home over the course of his career. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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02-14-21 | Lakers -2.5 v. Nuggets | 105-122 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Denver at 10:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Lakers in Friday's 10-point win over the Grizzlies and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them here. Los Angeles got the wake-up call it needed in the first quarter against Memphis on Friday, falling behind 20-2 out of the gates. From the second quarter on, it did what great teams do, reaching to another gear and ultimately winning the game comfortably. There's no question, we've seen the Lakers scuffing their heels lately. Remember, earlier in the week the undermanned Thunder took them to overtime in consecutive games, in Los Angeles no less. Here, I look for L.A. to rise to the occasion against a quality opponent in Denver. Note that the Lakers have taken seven of eight meetings with the Nuggets, including a 4-1 playoff series win last Summer, since the start of 2020. The Lakers have thrived on heading out on the road recently, going 14-3 ATS in their first game of a road trip over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average margin of 12 points. The Nuggets are a miserable 11-24 ATS following back-to-back wins over the last two seasons. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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02-13-21 | Pacers v. Hawks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 125-113 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. The Pacers are coming off four consecutive 'under' results and I look for more of the same on Saturday as they head to Atlanta to face the reeling Hawks. Note that the 'under' has cashed at a 25-12 clip when Indiana comes off three or more straight 'unders' over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just over 210 points - a very low total by today's NBA standards. Also note that the 'under' is 55-37 when the Pacers follow up an ATS win over the last three seasons, with those games reaching an average of 214 points - well south of tonight's posted total. The Hawks haven't been a terrible defensive team this season. Quite the opposite, in fact. Atlanta is allowing 111.4 points per game against opponents that average 112.7 ppg. Here at home, it is giving up 110 ppg on the season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-13-21 | 76ers v. Suns UNDER 225.5 | 111-120 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Phoenix at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the 76ers loss against the Blazers on Thursday but did cash with Portland. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the 'under' again as Philadelphia continues its road trip with an early start matchup in Phoenix. The Suns, of course, have been one of the league's better 'under' bets this season but come into this game off of consecutive 'over' results. Keep in mind, games involving the Suns have totaled an average of just over 218 points this season. This play is supported by a trend that has seen the 'under' cash at a 41-14 clip over the last five seasons when the Suns have won four or more games in a row and face a quality opponent. Also note that the 76ers are allowing just over 109 points per game when coming off a road loss over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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02-12-21 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -7.5 | Top | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Game of the week. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Memphis at 10:05 pm et on Friday. This is an excellent spot to back the Lakers at a reasonably short number coming off consecutive overtime wins over the Thunder and three straight non-ATS covers. Memphis just snapped a four-game losing streak with a resounding 130-114 win over Charlotte on Wednesday but now heads to Los Angeles where it has lost its last two meetings with the Lakers by 29 and 12 points. Note that Memphis is dealing with a number of key absences, but perhaps one is flying under the radar with Desmond Bane expected to miss due to personal reasons. He has been giving the Grizzlies around 25 productive minutes per game off the bench and his absence will be felt here. Of course, there's uncertainty around Lakers star Anthony Davis' availability but that has been more than factored into this price in my opinion. Note that the Lakers have owned the Southwest Division over the last two seasons, going 21-10 ATS. They swept consecutive games in Memphis back in early January. We actually won with the Grizzlies in the second game of that set but that was after the Lakers took the first game by 14 points. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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02-12-21 | Clippers -6.5 v. Bulls | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the Clippers in their most recent game - a seven-point victory in Minnesota on Wednesday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Los Angeles got off to a very slow start in that game, perhaps caught looking past a bad T'Wolves squad that got an emotional boost from the return of Karl-Anthony Towns. With that being said, the Clips had every opportunity to earn the ATS cover were it not for a letdown in the closing minutes. Here, we're being asked to lay a much shorter number and this time I like L.A. to come away with a comfortable victory. Chicago is off a double-digit win in an underdog role against the Pelicans on Wednesday. Note that the Bulls haven't won consecutive games since reeling off three straight wins from January 17th-22nd. Fading the Bulls here is supported by a situation that has cashed at a 66-34 ATS clip over the last five seasons which involves fading underdog teams coming off a high-scoring upset win. Note that the Clips are 32-15 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in their previous contest over the last three seasons. On the flip side, the Bulls are 12-27 ATS when playing at home after an ATS win over the same stretch. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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02-11-21 | 76ers v. Blazers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 114-118 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
NBA on TNT TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Portland at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. This is being billed as a showdown between two of the league's top scorers in Joel Embiid and Damian Lillard. I believe the game may come down to defense, however. Keep in mind, these two teams just met earlier this month with the Blazers stunning the 76ers by a 121-105 score in Philadelphia. That was an uncharacteristically sloppy performance from Philadelphia as it committed 18 turnovers and gave up 19 offensive rebounds, directly contributing to the Blazers getting off 98 field goal attempts. Note that only the Lakers have been better than the 76ers in terms of defensive efficiency away from home this season. While the Blazers rank near the bottom of the Association in that category overall they actually sit sixth over their last three games. On the flip side, the Blazers somewhat surprisingly rank in the bottom-third of the NBA in floor percentage at home. I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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02-11-21 | 76ers v. Blazers +5.5 | Top | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Philadelphia at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. This situation sets up nicely for the Blazers as they host the red hot 76ers on Thursday night. Philadelphia opened this western road trip with a 119-111 win in Sacramento on Tuesday night, marking their second straight ATS victory and sixth in their last seven games. Note that Philadelphia is a woeful 11-26 ATS after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three seasons. The Sixers are also a long-term loser in this pointspread range on the road, going 9-21 ATS, outscored by an average of around three points per game, when laying six points or less away from home. Meanwhile, Portland has gone 105-75 ATS as a home underdog of six points or less. The Blazers are feeling some good vibes right now having won three of their last four games. They'll let weaker opponents hang around here at home, as we saw in Monday's single-digit win over the injury-depleted Magic. However, they're also capable of stepping up against quality opponents such as Philadelphia. Take Portland (10*). |
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02-11-21 | Raptors v. Celtics -157 | 106-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston (moneyline) over Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Raptors have seemingly turned things around and come off a monster offensive performance in Washington last night. With that being said, I believe they'll be up against it in Boston on Thursday as the Celtics should be in foul mood coming off consecutive losses in Phoenix and Utah. Ordinarily, I'm not a big fan of backing teams in their first game back home following a long road trip, but here I'm willing to make an exception. The C's have played an uneven brand of basketball this season, largely due to injuries. They are getting healthier now, though, and will welcome the opportunity to face an Eastern Conference foe following an extended stretch against Western Conference opponents. Note that Boston is 11-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by nearly 11 points per game in that situation. While Boston is just 23-22-1 ATS in its last 46 meetings with Toronto, it has gone 33-13 straight-up over that stretch. Because I respect the Raps offense right now, rather than lay the handful of points with the Celtics, I'll back them on the moneyline at a very reasonable price in this spot. Take Boston moneyline (9*). |
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02-10-21 | Cavs v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | 95-133 | Loss | -114 | 23 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Denver at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. With both of these teams desperate to get back in the win column and both ranking in the bottom-five in the league in terms of pace rating, I'm not sure the relatively high posted total is warranted in this situation. The Cavs improbably scored 113 points in Monday's loss to the Suns in Phoenix - their highest scoring output since putting up 122 points in a win over the Pistons back on January 27th. I'm not counting on a repeat performance in the high altitude of Denver on Wednesday night, however. Note that the Cavs serve as somewhat of a relic in today's NBA, averaging a league-low 9.2 three-pointers made per game this season. Denver's offensive numbers have actually been just fine this season - at least in terms of efficiency. As noted, the Nuggets haven't really been pushing the pace, ranking 28th in the league in pace rating. They desperately need to snap their three-game losing streak on Wednesday and I suspect they'll lean on the fundamentals, playing tough defense and taking care of the basketball at the offensive end of the floor. Take the under (10*). |
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02-10-21 | Hornets v. Grizzlies UNDER 226 | Top | 114-130 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Memphis at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. On the heels of four straight losses and after giving up 128 points in Monday's loss to the Raptors, you have to think the Grizzlies will be hyper-focused on improving their defensive play in this seemingly winnable game against the Hornets on Wednesday night. Despite their recent slide, the Grizz still rank top 10 in the league in defensive rating. Unfortunately their offense has gone cold, with Ja Morant in particular really struggling to regain his shooting touch since returning from injury late last month. The Hornets have scored exactly 119 points in consecutive games, but still rank T21st in the league in field goal percentage and in the bottom half of the NBA in terms of pace rating. The last time these two teams met back on New Year's Day they combined to score just 201 points. Take the under (10*). |
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02-10-21 | Clippers -10 v. Wolves | Top | 119-112 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. Off back-to-back losses we can anticipate the Clippers will be in a foul mood and ready to take out their frustrations on the hapless T'Wolves on Wednesday night. Last season the Clips ranked fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency but they've taken a step back in that regard this year, middling in 15th position in that category. Here, they catch a break however, as Minnesota ranks 28th in the league in offensive efficiency with no discernible difference between their poor results on the road and at home. Interestingly, the Clips check in tops in the league in offensive efficiency on the road and despite the fact they're off consecutive losses, they rank sixth in that category over their last three contests. There's reason to believe we'll see a breakout performance from Los Angeles here. I'm fine with laying the double-digits in this spot. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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02-09-21 | Warriors v. Spurs -1.5 | 114-91 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Golden State at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Spurs last night in their come-from-behind victory over the Warriors and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Warriors entered last night's game on a red hot shooting tear but certainly cooled off over the course of that defeat, ultimately shooting just 44% from the field and making 13-of-37 three-point attempts. It might be tough for them to get it right back here on Tuesday. The Spurs will be determined to keep their winning streak (currently three games) intact before they head east on a long seven-game road trip. Meanwhile, Golden State has been largely inconsistent this season and is still just a .500 team despite its strong showing in late January (and even in a nationally televised rout of the Mavs last Thursday). I believe the Spurs are once again being discounted here and we'll take advantage again. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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02-08-21 | Warriors v. Spurs +1 | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio over Golden State at 8:35 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up as a fade/letdown spot for the Warriors after an draining two-game set in Dallas which they only managed a split. Steph Curry is of course coming off a 57-point outburst in front of a national TV audience on Saturday night but that wasn't enough to secure the victory. Now the Warriors head to San Antonio to face a Spurs squad that may not draw as much motivation but is a formidable opponent nonetheless. San Antonio has won five of its last seven games overall and should be a galvanized unit off consecutive tight victories over the Timberwolves and Rockets. With this being the first of a back-to-back set here at the AT&T Center, look for the Spurs to put their best foot forward on Monday night. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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02-07-21 | Celtics v. Suns -3 | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Boston at 2:05 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Suns as they catch the Celtics coming off a big road win over the Clippers. Note that Phoenix ranks an impressive sixth in the league in defensive efficiency this season with that ranking rising to number three in the league at home. By contrast, the Celtics sit 18th in the same category on the road. The Suns are obviously a much better team with a healthy Devin Booker on the floor. Since returning to the lineup three games ago he has scored 24, 25 and 23 points despite topping out at 31 minutes. Look for him to get extended a little more in this game on Sunday afternoon. While the C's are off a big win, they've actually posted just two victories in their last five games overall. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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02-06-21 | Blazers v. Knicks +1.5 | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Portland at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. The Blazers are coming off consecutive wins on this eastern road swing, taking down the Wizards and 76ers. We actually won with Portland in the win in Washington. Here, I'll go the other way as it continues its trip with an early start game in Manhattan. Keep in mind, the Blazers continue to play without a number of key cogs. Damian Lillard has been carrying the load but even he is nursing an abdomen injury. The Knicks have shown some growth already this season. It's worth noting that they rank an impressive 7th in the league in defensive efficiency while Portland sits a miserable 28th in that category. Take New York (10*). |
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02-05-21 | Raptors v. Nets -4.5 | 123-117 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Friday. The Raptors 'got right' with back-to-back wins over the reeling Magic earlier this week, capped off by Fred Van Vleet's incredible 54-point outburst last time out. Keep in mind, those two wins came on the heels of three straight losses. The Raps remain a disappointing 9-12 on the season. Brooklyn has won five of its last six games to move five games over .500 on the campaign. While a letdown could certainly be in order off a four-point win over the Clippers, I think we'll instead see Brooklyn ramp up before heading out on the road for two games in Philadelphia and Detroit. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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02-04-21 | Nuggets +5 v. Lakers | 93-114 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Nuggets appear to have turned the corner again with wins in six of their last seven games and they enter this contest in a terrific spot having been idle since Sunday's double-digit win over the Jazz. Meanwhile, the Lakers return home following a long seven-game road trip out east - a traditional flat spot in the NBA. Note that Los Angeles has topped out at 107 points over its last four games. That might not be enough on Thursday. Take Denver (10*). |
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02-03-21 | Mavs v. Hawks +2 | 122-116 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Dallas at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Hawks are coming off a close loss to the Lakers on Monday night but that doesn't change the fact that they've been playing well and should be in fine bounce-back position against a struggling Mavericks squad on Wednesday night. Dallas just hasn't been the same consistent force this season and it enters this contest off yet another disappointing performance in a one-point loss to Phoenix - its sixth consecutive loss. I believe a better get-right spot will come back at home as they open a seven-game homestand following this one. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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02-02-21 | Blazers +2 v. Wizards | 132-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland plus the points over Washington at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Blazers in Chicago on Saturday and I won't hesitate to back them again on Tuesday as they once again find themselves as a short underdog on the road. The Wizards are coming off a thrilling three-point win over the Nets on Sunday but will be hard-pressed to top that 149-point outburst here. Keep in mind, that was just their fourth victory of the season and first since January 11th. After dropping a tough one in Milwaukee last night, look for Portland to bounce back here. Take Portland (10*). |
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02-01-21 | Kings v. Pelicans -3.5 | 118-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Sacramento at 8:05 pm et on Monday. I like the rebound spot for the Pelicans here as they look to get back in the win column after a blowout loss to the Rockets on Saturday. That was a clear letdown spot for New Orleans as it had just won two games in a row, including an upset victory over the Bucks one night earlier. Here, the Pelicans should respond with a positive effort against a middling Kings squad. Sacramento has gone 2-1 on this road trip so far, with its last two games settled by a grand total of just three points. Off those two tight, emotional contests, look for the Kings to suffer a bit of a flat spot here. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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01-31-21 | Jazz +2 v. Nuggets | 117-128 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Denver at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Jazz just keep rolling along, having not lost a game since way back on January 6th. Here, they go on the road to face what can only be considered an overrated Nuggets squad at this point. Denver had won five games in a row before dropping a 10-point decision in San Antonio last time out. Keep in mind, the Nuggets recent winning streak came against struggling opponents in the Suns (twice), Mavs and Heat. Utah continues to be an undervalued commodity despite its scorching hot play. Take Utah (10*). |
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01-30-21 | Blazers +2 v. Bulls | 123-122 | Win | 101 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland plus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. I like the Blazers to bounce back from Thursday's narrow three-point loss in Houston as they head to Chicago to face the Bulls on Saturday night. Chicago was put in its place in consecutive home setbacks against the Lakers and Celtics, bringing a halt to a three-game winning streak in the process. The Blazers will be looking to snap a two-game skid of their own in this spot, noting that they've yet to lose more than two games in a row this season. Take Portland (10*). |
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01-29-21 | Hawks v. Wizards OVER 232 | 116-100 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I believe the case could be made for this total to be set in the 140's. The Hawks have quietly gotten back to playing good basketball lately, going 4-2 over their last six games with their only two losses coming on the road against the Bucks and at home in overtime against the Nets. With that of course comes terrific play at the offensive end of the floor and I have no doubt they can expose a bad Wizards defense here. Washington continues to get out of this world production from Bradley Beal. While the Wiz have just three wins on the season, they're still fun to watch. Off a few blowout losses on the road, I'm confident we see them force the issue a little bit against a beatable Hawks defense on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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01-27-21 | Celtics v. Spurs OVER 224 | 106-110 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and San Antonio at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting a track meet between the Celtics and Spurs on Wednesday night. The Celtics have finally gotten healthy again and it has showed in their last two games, as they posted consecutive wins, scoring 141 and 119 points in the process. Meanwhile, the Spurs will be eager to get back on the floor after Monday's game in New Orleans was postponed. They notched a win over the Wizards on Sunday, scoring 121 points despite getting just nine points from Demar Derozan and not having a single starter score more than 16 points. The most recent matchup between these two teams came last January, with the Spurs winning a wild one by a 129-114 score. Take the over (10*). |
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01-27-21 | Kings v. Magic -1.5 | 121-107 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Sacramento at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Magic two nights ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again here as they draw a winnable matchup against the Kings. Sacramento is coming off a win over the Knicks, but that was last Friday. Its last two games were scheduled to be played in Memphis but were postponed due to Covid protocols. The Kings haven't won a road game since posting a two-point victory in Denver back on December 23rd. Now they travel across the country after four full days off to face a Magic squad that is looking to find some consistency and post consecutive wins for the first time since January 4th and 6th. I like the upside the Magic offer after a tough stretch, noting that they could just as easily be entering this game on a four-game winning streak after a couple of heartbreaking two and three-point setbacks over the weekend. Take Orlando (10*). |
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01-26-21 | Knicks +11 v. Jazz | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Utah at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. I have no problem fading the red hot Jazz here as they aim to extend their eight-game winning streak, but do so with an eye on a three-game in five-night stretch against the Mavs and Nuggets up next. The Knicks betting bandwagon was loading up on the heels of three straight victories last week but has since cleared following consecutive losses to the Kings and Trailblazers. I expect New York's best effort here as it tries to avoid a losing four-game road trip before a couple of off days. Note that New York took the first meeting between these two teams this season, by double-digits no less, back on January 6th at home. While the Jazz will be looking to get their revenge here, I'm still not sure a losing squad like the Knicks will garner their complete attention. Take New York (10*). |
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01-25-21 | Hornets v. Magic +2 | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark with the Magic last night as they fell on a buzzer-beater in the first half of this back-to-back set. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Orlando here as it is well-positioned to rebound against a beatable Hornets squad. The Magic controlled proceedings much of the way last night before falling apart in the fourth quarter. With that being said, they still managed to tie the game up with eight seconds remaining. Their motivation level will certainly be high on Monday night as they look to get back in the win column at home. Take Orlando (10*). |
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01-24-21 | Hornets v. Magic -1.5 | 107-104 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. The Magic have been scuffing along, having dropped seven of their last eight games overall but they have an excellent opportunity to get back on track against a sliding Hornets squad on Sunday evening. Note that Charlotte has lost four games in a row. Orlando is coming off a narrow overtime loss on the road against the Pacers last time out and should be able to use that performance as a springboard, noting that it had won the game prior to that, albeit by a single point against the lowly T'Wolves. Take Orlando (10*). |
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01-23-21 | Warriors v. Jazz UNDER 225.5 | Top | 108-127 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Utah at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Jazz are coming off a high-scoring game against the Pelicans on Thursday night but that was to be expected given the recent history between those two teams. Here, I look for Utah to control proceedings defensively and ultimately keep this one 'under' the posted total. The Warriors have been playing better lately and rank third in the league in pace rating but I'm not sure that up-tempo play will be all that fruitful against the Jazz given they're one of the league's better defensive teams (6th in defensive rating) and the fact that Golden State ranks 22nd in field goal percentage. While the Warriors aren't known for their strong defensive play, they do rank in the top half of the league in terms of defensive rating. Note that prior to Thursday's 129-point outburst against an awful Pelicans defense, the Jazz had scored 118 points or less in five consecutive games. Take the under (10*). |
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01-22-21 | Knicks +4 v. Kings | 94-103 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Sacramento at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Knicks continue to get no respect from the oddsmakers as they check in as an underdog in Sacramento on Friday night. Of course, the narrative will be that they're in for a letdown after last night's double-digit win over the Warriors, but I don't see it happening. New York is back to the .500 mark on the season and this is without question a winnable game against a Kings squad mired in a 5-10 start, having dropped four in a row and six of their last seven overall. Yesterday Sacramento got word that its next two games after this one, scheduled to be played in Memphis, have been postponed. That serves as another distraction for a team that certainly doesn't need any given its recent struggles. Look for the Knicks to keep rolling here. Take New York (10*). |
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01-21-21 | Pelicans +7 v. Jazz | 118-129 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Utah at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans suffered a third quarter lapse in Tuesday's meeting between these two teams, and it ultimately cost them in an eventual 16-point loss (that result was actually flattering as the Pelicans closed the gap in garbage time in the fourth quarter). I do expect a strong bounce-back performance from New Orleans here. Note that while Utah took three of four meetings between these two teams last season, they did so by a combined six-point margin. We're catching that many points in this game alone with the number potentially moving higher closer to tipoff. Despite their 5-8 record, I do think the Pelicans have the potential to be an improved team and I'm confident head coach Stan Van Gundy will have them ready following an off day in Utah yesterday. I'll call for the Pels' to at the very least take this one down to the wire against a red hot Jazz squad. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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01-20-21 | Heat v. Raptors -160 | 111-102 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto (moneyline) over Miami at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. If you're looking for a 'buy signal' from the Raptors look no further than the recent performances from Kyle Lowry. After slumping out west he has bounced back, shooting 21-of-35 and racking up 58 points and dishing out 25 assists over his last three games - all Raptors victories here at home. Of course, it's not just Lowry that has been playing well - his supporting cast has also been more productive, helping Toronto score 111, 116 and 116 points over its last three contests. Tonight's opponent, the Miami Heat, is a shell of its former self right now, largely due to injuries and Covid protocols. To put it simply, the Raptors are catching the Heat at the right time. Miami did rally for a win over the Pistons to snap a three-game skid last time out but now plays its sixth game in the last 12 nights with a Covid-related postponement mixed in as well. Rather than lay the points with the Raptors in this spot, I'll back them on the moneyline as we're being offered a very reasonable price. Take Toronto moneyline (10*). |
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01-19-21 | Thunder v. Nuggets -9.5 | 101-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Oklahoma City at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Nuggets have been scuffing their heels all season, off to a disappointing 6-7 start although we did cash with them last Thursday night in their double-digit win over the Warriors - the same Warriors team that stunned the Lakers last night in Los Angeles. Here, I look for a focused effort from Denver as it looks to close out its three-game homestand on a winning note before heading out on the road for five games. Oklahoma City was expected to be a bottom-feeder in the Western Conference this season but has surprised by going 6-6 through 12 games including a 5-1 mark away from home. The Thunder really got rolling out east earlier this month, reeling off four wins in five games on the road but since then they've gone just 1-2 with both losses coming by double-digit margins. I believe their lack of depth catches up with them in this spot as they play their fifth game in eight nights against a highly-motivated Nuggets squad that has the talent to win this one going away provided it stays focused. Take Denver (10*). |
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01-18-21 | Wolves +8 v. Hawks | 97-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Atlanta at 2:35 pm et on Monday. The Hawks have lost six of their last seven games overall and now return home off a three-game road trip that got limited to two due to a Covid-related postponement in Phoenix. The T'Wolves have just three wins in 11 games this season and now have to deal with the absence of numerous key cogs, including Karl-Anthony Towns due to a positive Covid diagnosis. I do look for them to step up in his absence on Monday, however, and we're being given a generous helping of points to work with. After blowing a double-digit fourth quarter lead and losing by 11 points against the Grizzlies last time out, look for Minnesota to bring its best effort on Monday afternoon. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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01-17-21 | Pelicans v. Kings +2 | 128-123 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over New Orleans at 9:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the home side in this matchup of two struggling Western Conference teams. New Orleans enters this game having dropped five in a row. In spite of that, it finds itself in a bit of a letdown spot off consecutive games against two of the West's best teams in the Clippers and Lakers in Los Angeles. The Pelicans will also be looking ahead to back-to-back tough games in Utah up next. The Kings have lost their last two games and four of their last five overall. They've been home since January 6th and will be up for finishing this homestand on a high note before playing seven of their next eight contests on the road. I believe the case can be made that the wrong team is favored in this one. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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01-15-21 | Mavs +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:35 pm et on Friday. The Mavs have been in catch-up mode ever since starting the season with consecutive losses. They've certainly done a nice job lately, reeling off four straight victories entering Friday's showdown with the Bucks. I expect them to give Milwaukee all it can handle in this one. Unlike the Bucks last few opponents (their current three-game winning streak has come at the expense of the Cavs, Magic and Pistons), the Mavs aren't going to beat themselves. Dallas ranks eight in the NBA in fewest turnovers per offensive play. By contrast, the Bucks actually rank 17th in that category. Also note that the Mavs are top three in the league in opponents effective field goal percentage. It's not as if Dallas has faced a soft schedule either. The Mavs opponents have included the Suns, Lakers, Clippers, Heat, Rockets and Nuggets. Meanwhile, the Bucks have gone 1-3 SU in their four toughest matchups to date, against the Celtics, Heat (twice) and Jazz. Outside of that they really haven't been challenged. This should be a tightly-contested affair. Take Dallas (10*). |
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01-14-21 | Warriors v. Nuggets -4.5 | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Golden State at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Nuggets as they return home to host the Warriors on Thursday night. The Denver bandwagon effectively cleared in last Thursday's overtime loss to the Mavs but the Nuggets quietly rebounded with consecutive wins after that, before falling to the Nets in Brooklyn earlier this week. Here, I expect to see Denver bounce back in a big way against a Warriors squad that has somewhat surprisingly righted the ship of late, winning four of their last six games to pull back over the .500 mark. I didn't like the way they faded in the second half against the Pacers last time out and believe they could be in for a rude awakening here after playing each of their first seven January games at home. Take Denver (10*). |
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01-13-21 | Mavs v. Hornets +4.5 | 104-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Dallas at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Hornets just keep rolling along, winners of four games in a row entering Wednesday's matchup with the Mavericks. They might be catching Dallas at the right time as the Mavs return to the floor following a postponed game due to Covid concerns on Monday in New Orleans. The Mavs had won three straight games heading into that postponement but could certainly be off their game here, especially with a clear look-ahead to a showdown in Milwaukee on Friday night. I simply feel Dallas is laying a couple of points too many in this spot. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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01-12-21 | Spurs -1.5 v. Thunder | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Thunder are coming off a 4-1 road trip that saw them sweep a pair of games in New York against the Knicks and Nets over the weekend. Now I expect them to suffer a letdown as they return home to host the Spurs on Tuesday night. San Antonio had its three-game winning streak snapped last time out in Minnesota. Demar Derozan's likely absence will give the rest of the Spurs an opportunity to step up and fill the void on Tuesday night and I'm calling for a strong bounce-back perfromance before they return home for consecutive games against the Rockets on Thursday and Saturday. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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01-09-21 | Hawks -4 v. Hornets | 105-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Hawks as they look to get back at the Hornets after suffering a 102-94 loss in this same matchup on Wednesday night. Atlanta fell behind by 16 points after the first quarter in that game and never really recovered. It was certainly an off shooting night for the Hawks as they knocked down just 38% of their FG attempts and shot 7-of-40 from beyond the arc. Trae Young contributed just seven points. Needless to say, I expect a strong bounce-back effort from Atlanta here as it looks to snap its three-game skid. Heading on the road might be a good thing for this team right now as they might have gotten a little high on the horse after a red hot start to the campaign. Charlotte is still just 4-5 on the season and will be playing the second of back-to-back nights after delivering a second straight outright underdog win on the road in New Orleans last night. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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01-08-21 | Thunder v. Knicks -145 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
NBA Moneyline Game of the Month. My selection is on New York (moneyline) over Oklahoma City at 7:35 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Knicks as they aim to extend their three-game winning streak on Friday night against the Thunder. In my opinion, New York is more likely to get tripped up in one of its next two games - at home against Denver on Sunday or at Charlotte on Monday. The Knicks have been as steady as they come lately, posting five wins in their last six games - seemingly toughening up late in each of those contests. Last time out they got just nine points on a 4-of-14 shooting night from super sophomore R.J. Barrett. Expect a big bounce-back performance from the Canadian here. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is just 3-4 on the campaign but has won two of its last three contests. The Thunder almost gave away their most recent victory, narrowly holding on for a one-point win over the Pelicans after entering the fourth quarter with a double-digit lead. Here, I don't think they'll be so fortunate. Take New York moneyline (10*). |
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01-07-21 | Mavs v. Nuggets -134 | 124-117 | Loss | -134 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver (moneyline) over Dallas at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Nuggets as they try to string together their first three-game winning streak of the season on Thursday night. It's not often you'll find me betting against Luka Doncic but in this particular spot, I simply feel the Mavs are going to have a tough time matching the Nuggets depth. Keep in mind, Dallas is still without Kristaps Porzingis, whose return doesn't appear to be far off. Trey Burke will also miss Thursday's game due to an illness. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are expected to have Michael Porter Jr. back in the lineup after he dealt with Covid protocols. While it remains to be seen how much he can contribute in his first game back, his return is a boost for sure, noting he poured in 30 points against the Kings the last time he was on the floor back on December 30th. This is a key spot for the Nuggets as they look to get back to the .500 mark on the season before heading east for three tough games in four nights against the 76ers, Knicks and Nets. Rather than lay the points I'll back Denver on the moneyline at an increasingly reasonable price here. Take Denver moneyline (10*). |
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01-07-21 | 76ers v. Nets UNDER 225 | 109-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The 76ers were involved in a wild, high-scoring game against the defense-optional Wizards last night but I look for the scoring to settle down considerably as they head to Brooklyn to face the Durant-less Nets on Thursday night. Note that Philadelphia ranks tops in the league in defensive efficiency while Brooklyn isn't far behind sitting in eighth. It's also worth noting that the 76ers are second in the league in block percentage with the Nets once again ranking eighth. We won with the Nets in their last game as they routed the Jazz thanks in large part to a tremendous defensive start to that game. Without Kevin Durant sidelined, the Nets need to keep the emphasis on playing fundamentally-sound defensive basketball, even in the face of a tough challenge against the surging 76ers on Thursday. Meanwhile, Kyrie Irving will once again get his, but don't count on Brooklyn hanging another 130-spot on the board against what is sure to be a highly-motivated 76ers squad. Take the under (10*). |
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01-06-21 | Rockets +2 v. Pacers | 107-114 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Indiana at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets are coming off a poor showing against the Mavs on Monday - a disappointing result after they swept a back-to-back set with the Kings. I do expect Houston to bounce back on Wednesday, however, as it catches Indiana returning home following an overtime win in New Orleans two nights ago, having alternated wins and losses over its last four games. For the Rockets, this is a key road tilt before returning home for their next three games. I expect a positive response from both James Harden and John Wall after the duo combined to shoot 9-of-27 from the field on Monday night. While controversy has swirled around Harden as he looks to get out of Houston, his play hasn't showed it as he is averaging 33 points and 10.8 assists per game this season. Take Houston (10*). |
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01-06-21 | Wizards +7 v. 76ers | 136-141 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Wizards could easily suffer a letdown here off a big upset win in Brooklyn on Sunday but having had two days off since that contest, I'm confident we'll see them use that victory as a building block. After all, the Wiz are off to a rough 2-5 start so they can ill afford to let down their guard, especially against a 76ers squad that has posted a 6-1 record. Keep in mind, this is a rematch from opening night, when the 76ers turned in a near-flawless performance yet still only won by six points. The Wizards were without sophomore Rui Hachimura in that game which is notable as he has been a steady contributor since returning, scoring 14.3 points per game and adding nearly four rebounds per contest. Also notable has been the steady improvement of Washington C Thomas Bryant, who has scored 28, 18 and 21 points over his last three games, hauling in 14 rebounds in Sunday's win over Brooklyn. The 76ers are obviously off to a tremendous start but they've also faced a fairly light schedule. Of their seven games, four have come at home and the list of teams they've faced is as follows; Washington, New York, Cleveland, Toronto, Orlando and Charlotte (twice). I look for the Wizards to give the Sixers a run in this one. Take Washington (10*). |
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01-05-21 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +9 | Top | 94-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Lakers had little trouble brushing aside the Grizzlies two nights ago, cruising to a 14-point victory. Keep in mind, Memphis shot just 41% from the field and got to the free throw line only eight times in that contest. The 14-point margin of victory for the Lakers was probably a little flattering for the Grizzlies in actual fact. Here, I look for the Grizzlies to turn in a better showing, while the Lakers turn in less than a peak performance with an eye on a three-game in four night stretch beginning on Thursday. There will obviously be games where the Lakers conserve a little energy over the course of this unique 2020-21 season, and this might just be one of them. The Grizzlies have actually held their own since losing star sophomore Ja Morant to injury. He went down early in their eventual overtime win over the Nets on December 28th. Including that game, they've gone 2-2 since losing Morant. This is a key spot for the Grizzlies as they aim to give themselves at least a chance of posting a winning homestand, with two winnable games against the Cavs and the perceiveably Durant-less Nets up next. Take Memphis (10*). |
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01-04-21 | Knicks v. Hawks -6 | 113-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over New York at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Knicks got past the Pacers in an early season revenge spot on Saturday night thanks to shooting the lights out and dominating the glass. I don't expect them to do either of those things on Monday as they head to Atlanta to face the Hawks. Atlanta should be in a foul mood after an extremely poor second half showing against the Cavs on Saturday (we won with the Cavs in that game). The Hawks jumped out to an early lead but couldn't make it stand up. Perhaps the fact they were playing on the second of back-to-back nights after closing out a tough two-game split in Brooklyn played a role. While the Hawks bandwagon mostly cleared after that loss to Cleveland, I expect them to respond with a big effort on Monday night against the upstart Knicks. One thing we know is while Atlanta is off to a solid start, it certainly isn't good enough to overlook a team like New York. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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01-03-21 | Clippers -136 v. Suns | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles (moneyline) over Phoenix at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. The Clippers are coming off a tough loss to the Jazz in Utah on Friday night - always a tough trip for even the best teams in the NBA. That was an easy game to forget about for L.A. as it fell behind by double-digits early and never really recovered. With that being said, I don't think it will be difficult for the Clips to get motivated for this bounce-back spot against the red hot Suns on Sunday evening. Phoenix enters this game on the heels of four straight wins and sits a game ahead of Los Angeles in the Western Conference standings. While we cashed our easiest winner of the season to date fading the Clips one week ago today against Dallas, they bounced back nicely from that defeat, posting a 23-point win over the T'Wolves two nights later. While this game certainly doesn't look like a potential blowout, I do expect Los Angeles to prevail. Rather than lay the points we'll back the Clips on the moneyline as we're being offered a very reasonable price to do so. Take Los Angeles moneyline (10*). |
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01-02-21 | Cavs +7 v. Hawks | 96-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. While we've been high on the Hawks in the early going this season, I see this as a fine spot to fade them as they return home following a two-game set in Brooklyn. We're going to see all kinds of odd scheduling quirks over the course of this unique 2020-21 season. Here, Atlanta returns home on no rest after playing the Nets twice in three nights in Brooklyn. The Hawks managed to split those two contests and now I'm not sure we're going to see a peak effort from them against the Cavs on Saturday night. Cleveland has been an Eastern Conference doormat in recent years but is off to a fine 3-2 start this season, getting far more consistent production from its starting five than we've been used to seeing. We actually won by fading the Cavs in their most recent game - a 20-point loss in Indiana on New Year's Eve. That was an excellent spot for the Pacers, however, and Cleveland could have made a game of it were it not for an off night from the free throw line (it shot 13-of-24). Take Cleveland (10*). |
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01-01-21 | Blazers -165 v. Warriors | 123-98 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland (moneyline) over Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Friday. The Blazers did about as best as we could have expected in their two-game stint in Los Angeles, beating the Lakers before falling to the Clippers in blowout fashion. That latter result had more to do with being in the wrong place at the wrong time than anything else as the Clips were in a foul mood off an ugly blowout loss to the Mavs. Here, I look for the Blazers to bounce back against the Warriors, who are fresh off consecutive road wins. Steph Curry has performed as we have anticipated in the early going, leading the Warriors charge to a .500 record. I do expect to see some regression in terms of Steph's scoring here, however, as he comes in off back-to-back 30+ points performances. The Blazers have the edge in terms of depth and Damian Lillard will obviously be a key after he shot a miserable 3-of-14 from the field last time out. Expect a big bounce-back effort from Lillard here. Rather than lay the points we'll go the moneyline route here as we're being offered a very reasonable price to do so. Take Portland moneyline (10*). |
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12-31-20 | Cavs v. Pacers -7.5 | 99-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Cleveland at 3:05 pm et on Thursday. These two teams check in with identical 3-1 records this season but I don't think there's any question Indiana is the superior squad. Keep in mind, the Cavs three victories have come against the Hornets, Pistons and Joel Embiid-less 76ers. While Collin Sexton and Andre Drummond have been impressive for Cleveland, I expect the depth of the Pacers to wear it out on Thursday afternoon. Of course there's a chance we see a Pacers letdown here off consecutive tough battles against the Celtics but I think there's a better chance we see a focused effort from Indiana given it dropped its most recent game against Boston by a 116-111 score. Indiana continues to get production from up and down its lineup - most recently registering six players in double-figures. The Cavs have been living off of extra possessions, ranking tops in the league in steals per game. Indiana, however, is top nine in fewest turnovers and I look for it to do a fine job of taking care of the basketball here. Take Indiana (10*). |
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12-30-20 | Hawks v. Nets -6 | 141-145 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We've already backed the Hawks in all three games this season, going 2-1 ATS in the process, with our lone miss coming as a free play in Monday's win but non-cover against the Pistons. Here, I'll go the other way and fade Atlanta as it opens a two-game set against the Nets. Brooklyn is coming off a home loss to the Grizzlies but that was without both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving on the floor after they played big minutes against the Hornets the night previous. For a team like the Nets, who are certainly top-heavy and a little depth-shy, they're going to need to find reasons to motivated themselves over the course of this unique 2020-21 season. I do think the Hawks perfect 3-0 record will garner their attention and we'll see a focused effort as the Nets look to snap their two-game skid. I've sung the Hawks praises in the early going this season and have them pegged as a possible breakout team in the East, but they're not a top contender by any means. That should be evident in Tuesday's game against an elite Nets squad, albeit one that is still looking to find its footing. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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12-29-20 | Raptors v. 76ers -2 | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Raptors certainly haven't looked like a top contender in the Eastern Conference out of the gate this season, going winless through two games. I don't see this as an ideal bounce-back spot for the Raps as they stay on the road to face a 76ers squad that is coming off a blowout loss in Cleveland - a game in which they were without Joel Embiid after he experienced some back tightness in warmups. All indications are he will be back on Tuesday but even if he's not, I like the Sixers chances of handing the Raps a third consecutive loss. With Pascal Siakam still struggling (picking up where he left off in last summer's 'bubble' playoffs) and minimal bench production with key contributor Norm Powell having shot 2-for-16 through two games, Toronto is left looking for answers right now. I simply feel a better opportunity for it to get on track will come back in Tampa on Thursday against the Knicks. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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12-28-20 | Jazz v. Thunder +7.5 | 110-109 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Utah at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Thunder were pegged by many to finish near the bottom of the Western Conference standings this season but they're off to a 1-0 start after defeating the Hornets in their opener on Saturday. I believe OKC is catching too many points again in this spot as it hosts its home opener against the 1-1 Jazz. It's worth noting that the Thunder posted eight blocks in their opener - that's more than the usually defensive-minded Jazz have recorded in their first two games combined (7). The Thunder also notched eight steals in their season debut - while they may lack the talent of a playoff contender, they're hungry and out to prove their many doubters wrong. That's often a recipe for success - at least early in the season. I do think OKC is catching Utah at the right time as the Jazz looked out of sync last time out and star guard Donovan Mitchell has shot just 12-of-39 from the floor through two games - clearly still shaking off the rust after a unique offseason. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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12-27-20 | Mavs +5 v. Clippers | 124-73 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Mavericks as they look to record their first victory of the season on Sunday afternoon. This is obviously a tough matchup against the undefeated Clippers but I expect the Mavs to be up for the challenge after pushing the Clips to six games in last summer's 'bubble' playoffs. Los Angeles shot the lights out in its most recent victory against Denver, hitting 55% overall, 50% from three-point range and 83% from the free throw line. The Mavs have their work cut out for them but should be much tougher on the Clips than they were on the Lakers when they allowed 56% shooting on Friday night. While we won with L.A. on opening night, that was in an underdog role against the rival Lakers. Off consecutive wins to open the campaign, I look for the Clips to sputter here. Take Dallas (10*). |
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12-26-20 | Raptors -1 v. Spurs | 114-119 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over San Antonio at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. The best thing for the Raptors may be to hit the road at this point after they opened their season with a disappointing 'home' loss to the Pelicans in Tampa. Toronto simply went ice cold from the field in the second half against New Orleans. I don't expect to see much carry-over from that performance here, however. Meanwhile, San Antonio lit it up in its season-opener against Memphis, scoring 130+ points in the process. Demar Derozan not surprisingly led the way in that contest. I'm not all that high on the Spurs and figure they're in for a bit of a letdown here. I'll bank on the Raps responding with a sharp performance on Saturday night. Take Toronto (10*). |
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12-25-20 | Pelicans v. Heat -160 | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami (moneyline) over New Orleans at 12:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Heat on the moneyline as they look to bounce back from a tough season-opening loss to the Magic. New Orleans caught fire shooting the ball in the second half against the Raptors in its season-opener with journeyman J.J. Redick shooting 8-of-14 from the field in a 23-point performance off the bench. I don't expect a repeat performance here. While I'm certainly high on Zion Williamson - as are most - I question how much depth the Pelicans really have. The other five Pelicans bench players to see action on Wednesday combined to score nine points. Miami got a miserable five made three-pointers from its starting five in Wednesday's narrow loss in Orlando. There's reason to believe we'll see a solid bounce-back performance here, however. The fact that the Heat were even in that game at all was impressive considering Orlando shot 48% from the field and got to the free throw line a whopping 30 times. Rather than lay the points here, I'll back the Heat at a very reasonable price on the moneyline. Take Miami moneyline (10*). |
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12-23-20 | Hawks -1.5 v. Bulls | 124-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Hawks endured another miserable season last year, ultimately ending up one of only eight teams to miss out on the 'bubble' invite this past Summer. While there will be no shortage of motivation in Atlanta, I believe the Hawks also have the pieces in place to take a significant step forward here in 2020-21. With a number of new faces in the mix there's reason to think that they could struggle in the early going as they try to find some chemistry but the preseason was encouraging as they were competitive in three of four games (in their lone blowout loss Trae Young made just four field goals in 26 minutes of action). I see this as the perfect opening night matchup for the Hawks as they travel to Chicago to face a Bulls squad that is also looking to turn things around following a dismal campaign. For the Bulls, I believe the road back to respectability might take a little longer. There's a lot to be excited about with Coby White ready to emerge as a star in the league and plenty of role players capable of stepping up around him. I'm just not convinced they have the offense to keep pace with the Hawks at this early stage of the season. Atlanta scored 112, 116, 106 and 117 in four preseason games with a real key being the steadying performances of veteran free agent acquisitions Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic off the bench - something it has really been missing in recent years. Behind big opening night performances from Trae Young and Cam Reddish, look for the Hawks to prevail. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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12-22-20 | Clippers +3.5 v. Lakers | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Clippers plus the points over the Lakers at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll take the points with the Clippers on opening night as they look to put an awful preseason behind them against the defending champion Lakers. There will be no shortage of motivation in the Clippers locker room this season after a 2019-20 campaign that turned out to be a disappointment. I think this is the perfect matchup for them to start the season with. While the Lakers showed flashes of brilliance in the preseason, I'm not convinced they're putting too much stock in this opening night result. As they work their way back into form, we'll grab the points with the underdog Clippers in a game where I fully expect them to bring their 'A' effort. Take the Clippers (10*). |
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12-22-20 | Warriors v. Nets -7 | 99-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Golden State at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. While expectations are obviously quite high in Brooklyn with both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving back healthy, I believe they're warranted. Meanwhile, the Warriors season essentially went by the wayside before it even started with Klay Thompson going down with a season-ending injury. While a healthy Steph Curry obviously means Golden State should be improved compared to last year, I don't like the roster they currently have assembled (note that Draymond Green is expected to miss the opener). Maybe Curry shoots the lights out and keeps this one competitive, but I think there's a better chance that the Nets run away and hide with a decisive opening-night victory. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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10-11-20 | Lakers -5 v. Heat | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Sunday. Game 5 on Friday night had very much the look of a 'last stand' of sorts from Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat. Left exhausted at the end of that thrilling affair, I'm not convinced the Heat can keep pace with the Lakers for four quarters on Sunday night. Lebron James' critics have once again come out of the woodwork following that missed opportunity to close this series out in Game 5 - despite his 40-point, 13-rebound performance. I certainly expect another positive response from Lebron (and perhaps more importantly, his supporting cast) here. The Lakers have essentially controlled this series from the jump and I'm not going to knock them for slipping up in their first shot at closing out the series on Friday. Miami has shown plenty of resiliency throughout these playoffs and has proven to be the very definition of a 'tough out'. However, now we're dealing with a very reasonable price to back what is sure to be a determined Lakers squad eager to bring an end to 'bubble life' and deliver the Larry O'Brien trophy back to Los Angeles. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-09-20 | Heat v. Lakers OVER 216 | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Game 2 of this series which was the highest scoring game of the series to date. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in what could be the clincher for the Lakers on Friday night. The Heat have obviously not backed down at any point in these playoffs and I'm confident we'll see them bring their best effort on Friday. If they're going to extend the series they're obviously going to need to shoot much better than they did in Game 4, when they connected on just 43% of their field goal attempts. On the flip side, I think we can expect a better shooting performance from the Lakers after they made good on just 44% of their attempts in Game 4. We've once again seen a downward shift in the posted total, which much like in Game 2, plays right into our favor here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-02-20 | Heat v. Lakers OVER 216 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Friday. This total is going the wrong way in my opinion following an 'under' result in Game 1. Keep in mind, prior to that relatively low-scoring series-opening result, seven straight games involving these two teams (in the Conference Finals) had gone 'over' the total we're dealing with here in Game 2. The Heat will likely be undermanned in this one with Bam Adebayo dealing with a neck strain. His absence shouldn't be underestimated as he was named to the NBA All-Defensive Second Team just last month. I do think we'll see the Heat punch back after their no-show in Game 1, although the lopsided spread would seem to indicate otherwise. In fact, neither team performed quite up to standards offensively in the series-opener - yet the final score still nearly eclipsed the total. Even the Lakers have room for impnrovement offensively. I expect a different story to unfold here on Friday night and we're being offered a very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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09-22-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets +6.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Tuesday. While the nature of that Game 2 loss may have broken most teams, I don't expect the Nuggets to fold the tent. Denver has shown plenty of resiliency throughout the playoffs and should bounce back here as it has a lot of positives to build on following Game 2. While I also lean to the 'under' in this matchup, I'll stick with the side and back the Nuggets to at the very least take this one down to the wire. Take Denver (10*). |
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09-17-20 | Heat v. Celtics -132 | 106-101 | Loss | -132 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston moneyline over Miami at 7 pm et on Thursday. The Miami Heat are on some kind of roll right now but Game 1 of this series could have certainly gone either way, and even with Kemba Walker still in a funk, the Celtics were in it. Here, I look for Boston to make the necessary adjustments and even up the series at a game apiece. The C's third quarter performance in Game 1 - in which they held Miami to just 16 points - has to carry some weight here. I do expect Boston to come in with plenty of confidence even after a disappointing overtime loss. This has all the makings of a long, hard-fought series and I'll back the Celtics on the moneyline here in Game 2. Take Boston moneyline (10*). |
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09-15-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -7.5 | 104-89 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The Clippers clearly got caught looking ahead to a date with the rival Lakers at halftime of Game 6, ultimately blowing a 16-point lead en route to an eventual double-digit loss. L.A. really couldn't have played much worse. It only serves to make bouncing back that much easier on Tuesday as I'm confident the Clips motivation level will be sky-high and I expect their play to match it. Give Denver all the credit in the world, first battling its way through a tough series against the Jazz and now giving the favored Clips all they can handle in another seven-game series. We have, however, seen L.A.'s ability to reach another gear in this series and there's simply too much on the line as a franchise to lay another egg on Tuesday night. All of that has certainly been factored into the line, but I still look for the Clips to cover the number. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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09-11-20 | Celtics -128 v. Raptors | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston (moneyline) over Toronto at 9 pm et on Friday. I picked the Celtics to win this series at the onset and I won't waver from that position here in Game 7. Give the defending champion Raptors credit, they've battled all the way back in this series but what else would you expect? There was no way a team as talented, experienced and well-coached as the Raptors were going to roll over. With that being said, the Raps are fortunate to have forced a Game 7 with a miracle buzzer beater leading to one win and another coming by way of double overtime. This is a huge game for Celtics head coach Brad Stevens as he needs to respond to Nick Nurse's adjustments and get his team over the hump. Desperation has shifted to the Celtics now and I look for their stars to respond accordingly. Take Boston moneyline (10*). |
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09-09-20 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 210 | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Boston at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors haven't had much of a prayer of slowing down the Celtics multi-dimensional offensive attack during this series and as a result they're facing the prospect of elimination on Wednesday night. I don't expect the Raps to suddenly come up with an answer for the four-headed monster of Brown, Tatum, Walker and Smart on Wednesday. With that being said, I also don't expect to see Siakam and Lowry combine to make a paltry eight shots again either. The Raptors are the defending champions and as such, I don't think we'll see them go away quietly. This is the lowest posted total we've seen in this series so far, and I believe it will prove far too low on Wednesday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-03-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -8.5 | Top | 97-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 9 pm et on Thursday. I really think this is a blowout in the making as the weary Nuggets take on the Clippers just one day removed from outlasting the Jazz in what was an opening round war of attrition. Los Angeles is well-rested, and likely to keep rolling after rounding into form in the latter stages of the first round. The Clips didn't exactly come roaring out of the gates here in the "bubble" but they didn't have to. Here, I look for them to get off to a blazing start to the second round as they do a far better job of containing Jokic and Murray than the Jazz did in the Nuggets last series. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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09-02-20 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 221 | Top | 116-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Milwaukee at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a considerable adjustment to the total in this matchup since Game 1, despite the fact that the series-opener did manage to reach 219 total points (not much lower than the closing total of 224). I believe we'll consider to see the totals drop as this series progresses as we should be in for another relatively low-scoring affair (by today's NBA standards) on Wednesday. Keep in mind, both teams shot the ball pretty well, particularly from three-point range, two nights ago. As expected, Miami was able to slow down the Bucks pace, something I think we'll continue to see as the series goes on. The Bucks got punched in the mouth in Game 1 but I'm confident we'll see them punch back on Wednesday. But am I confident enough that I'm willing to lay a handful of points with them against a gritty Heat squad? Not a chance. Instead we'll focus on the total and call for a tightly-contested affair in Game 2. Take the under (10*). |
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09-01-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 217.5 | 78-80 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. This series has been an 'over' bettors' dream and while I understand the logic behind posting a lower total with this being Game 7 and all, I'm not about to jump off the 'over' train. Generally, we see the defensive intensity ramp up in Game 7 but these aren't typical circumstances. Without the raucous atmosphere these players are accustomed to, not to mention home court advantage, we just haven't seen that same level of defensively intensity, regardless what point of a series we're talking about. Here, I look for both teams to continue to get the looks they want on offense, and continue to execute at a very high level at the offensive end of the floor. Take the over (10*). |
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08-30-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -2.5 | 112-94 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Boston at 1 pm et on Sunday. I look for the Raptors to get an early jump on the Celtics in this series as they return from an extended layoff on Sunday afternoon. Boston looked a little disjointed at times early in its series against the 76ers but got stronger as it went on, ultimately prevailing against an undermanned Philadelphia squad. This should be a different story as it faces the challenge of a full-strength Raptors squad that is playing some of its best basketball here in the "bubble". All indications are that Kyle Lowry's ankle should be good to go for Game 1, with a few extra days off helping him get ready for the opener. Take Toronto (10*). |
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08-29-20 | Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 223 | 122-131 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Saturday. The Blazers will try to avoid elimination at the hands of Lebron and co. on Saturday night but they'll be hard-pressed to do so without the services of Damian Lillard. We've seen a considerable adjustment to the total here, but I still believe it will prove too high as Portland makes a desperate attempt to stay in the series, ultimately missing plenty of shots against what will be a motivated Lakers squad. Los Angeles has gotten better as this series has progressed and while it has given up its share of points, I expect it to tighten things up and completely shut down the Blazers on Saturday night, helping this one stay 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | 111-154 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with the Clippers on Tuesday night as they bounce-back from a very disappointing overtime loss on Sunday afternoon. Luka Doncic simply took over that game on Sunday, turning in a performance for the ages with his running mate Kristaps Porzingis sidelined. Now I look for a big response from Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers as they look to take back control of the series and silence some of their doubters in the process. A big early lead may have been the worst thing that could have happened to the Clippers on Sunday as they let down their guard against the undermanned Mavs and ultimately paid the price with an 'L'. Look for a sharper, more focused effort from the Clips on Tuesday. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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08-25-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 221 | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Denver at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. We've been playing the 'over' every game in this series and it has paid off nicely. There's no reason to jump ship on Tuesday as we should once again see a high-scoring affair between these familiar foes. While in some cases I would shy away from playing the 'over' in an elimination game here in the "bubble" I believe this situation is a little different. The Nuggets still believe they can get back in the series and should really push the pace in this one noting the last game was decided by just two points in favor of the Jazz, with Denver shooting 49% from the field overall and 39% from three-point range. That contest got to 252 total points despite the Nuggets getting to the free throw line only 13 times (making 12 of those attempts). Take the over (10*). |
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08-24-20 | Pacers v. Heat OVER 216.5 | Top | 87-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
NBA First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Miami at 6:30 pm et on Monday. This has been a relatively low-scoring series to this point (by today's NBA standards at least). I look for some carry-over from Game 4 on Monday, however, noting that Saturday's game reached a series-high 239 total points. This is it for the Pacers. They'll be in desperation mode on Monday and they at the very least have proven they can score against Miami, having put up at least 100 points in all four previous games in this series. As for Miami, it managed to score 124 points despite shooting just 45% from the field in Game 4. The Heat were certainly aggressive, however, getting to the free throw line a whopping 52 times in that contest. Expect they to make a concerted effort to close out the Pacers here, leading to a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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08-23-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 217 | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Utah at 9 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Friday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday. That missed call obviously had a lot to do with a slow start as well as a poor shooting performance from the Nuggets (38% from the field). Here, the Nuggets will need to bounce back with a better effort as this is a pivotal game in this series with the Jazz up 2-1. The first two games in the series easily eclipsed the total but the low-scoring Game 3 has helped keep the number in check here on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-22-20 | Bucks v. Magic UNDER 226 | 121-107 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Orlando at 1 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game by today's NBA standards in Game 2 of this series on Thursday and I look for more of the same on Saturday. The Bucks quite simply got caught flat-footed in the series-opener and Orlando took full advantage. After making the necessary adjustments, Milwaukee was able to hold the Magic to a miserable 35% shooting overall and 21% from beyond the arc in Game 2. I'm not convinced we see a big bounce-back performance from Orlando in that regard here. The Bucks will get theirs offensively but I'm not sure they'll need to keep their foot on the gas right to the final whistle. Take the under (10*). |
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08-21-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 218.5 | 87-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Utah at 4 pm et on Friday. We've won with the 'over' in each of the first two games in this series and there's no reason to stray from our thinking here. We can expect to see major pushback from the Nuggets after their poor showing in Game 2. There were positives for them to take away from that blowout loss as they did ultimately shoot 46% from the field and 48% from three-point range. Here, I look for them to push the pace a little more and force the issue against a beatable Jazz defense. Utah turned in an incredibly clean performance in Game 2, dishing out 32 assists compared to only six turnovers. The Jazz also got whatever they wanted in the paint, holding a 48-28 scoring edge. At some point you have to figure we'll see an adjustment to this total but so far the oddsmakers are holding steady. I believe the number will prove too low once again. Take the over (10*). |
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08-20-20 | Heat -4 v. Pacers | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Indiana at 1 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Heat in Game 1 of this series and we'll come right back with them again in Game 2 on Thursday afternoon. This is a mismatch as far as I'm concerned, even if it didn't look that way in the early stages of the series-opener. Once the Heat settled in they were able to essentially do whatever they wanted and ultimately stretch out the margin against the Pacers in Game 1. There's little reason to expect anything different on Thursday. The 'zig-zag theory' produced a 3-1 ATS record in yesterday's playoff contests, but I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday. Take Miami (10*). |
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08-19-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 217.5 | 124-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Denver at 4 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 in this series eclipsed the total with ease and while the oddsmakers have raised the total slightly for Game 2, I don't believe it will be enough. It's interesting that the series-opener got to a whopping 260 points despite the fact there were only 32 made free throws in the game. Both teams got all the open looks they wanted and I don't see a whole lot changing here in Game 2. The Jazz are obviously going to need more production from players not named Donovan Mitchell after he poured in 57 points in Game 1. I'm expecting Utah to do a much better job of capitalizing on its opportunities at the offensive end of the floor, noting that it did pull in 16 offensive boards on Monday. Meanwhile, the Jazz didn't have an answer for the Nuggets offense last time out and I don't see much changing on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-18-20 | Heat -4.5 v. Pacers | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Indiana at 4 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with the Heat as they open their first round playoff series with the Pacers on Tuesday afternoon. This will actually be the third meeting in just over a week between these two teams with each side winning one of those matchups. Both games were ultimately blowouts but we can put a lot more stock in Miami's 114-92 win back on August 10th as the second matchup saw most key cogs sit. The Pacers have enjoyed a nice run here in the "bubble" but I'm much higher on the Heat and had this line pegged 1.5 points higher than we're dealing with at the time of writing. Take Miami (10*). |
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08-17-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6 | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the points with the Clippers in the opener of their series with the Mavericks on Monday night. After getting off to a rocky start here at Disney dropping two of their first three contests, the Clippers turned it around winning four of their last five. That included a 15-point rout of the Mavericks on August 6th. Dallas has been marred by inconsistent play, particularly at the defensive end of the floor, here in the "bubble" and I simply don't see it getting off to a roaring start to the playoffs against a Clippers squad that will be looking to make a statement right out of the gates. All things considered, I believe we're being asked to lay a very reasonable number with the vastly superior team on Monday night. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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08-17-20 | 76ers +6 v. Celtics | 101-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 6:30 pm et on Monday. The Celtics were red hot near the tail-end of regular season play in the "bubble", reeling off four straight wins before falling with most of their key cogs resting in their finale against the Wizards. Here, they draw a tough opening round matchup against a 76ers squad they struggled against during the regular season, dropping three of four meetings. Of course, Philadelphia is a different team without Ben Simmons. That being said, the Sixers have held up well in "bubble" action to this point, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. They've learned to play without their star guard and I believe they enter the playoffs with a big chip on their shoulder against the favored Celtics. Look for a tightly-contested affair in Game 1 on Monday. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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08-17-20 | Nets +10 v. Raptors | 110-134 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Toronto at 4 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Nets on Monday as they aim to take their first step in dethroning the defending NBA champion Raptors. While that will be a tall task indeed, here we're only looking for Brooklyn to give Toronto a run. The Raptors are generally slow starters in playoff series' having gone an absolutely dreadful 4-15 SU and 5-14 ATS in their last 19 series openers. The Nets have been one of the most undervalued commodities in the "bubble". While they have a ton of absences, there's no question they've come together and played their best basketball of the season here at Disney. The Raps win Game 1 but it should be close. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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08-06-20 | Pacers -3 v. Suns | Top | 99-114 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Phoenix at 4:05 pm et on Thursday. This is an ideal spot to fade the red hot Suns as they come off a thrilling buzzer-beating win over the Clippers two days ago. Phoenix has gone a perfect 3-0 since the NBA restart to keep its slim playoff hopes alive. Here it faces a less talked about but equally hot opponent in the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers have also gone a perfect 3-0 since the restart but the difference is Indiana has been a quality team all season long. The Suns will certainly draw the Pacers attention here after that huge upset victory over the NBA title contending Clippers. I believe we're being asked to lay a relatively short number with the much better all-around team. Take Indiana (10*). |
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08-05-20 | Raptors v. Magic +6.5 | 109-99 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors have impressed through two games since the restart, notching wins over the Lakers and Heat. I believe there's a chance we see them overlook the Magic on Wednesday, however, as they have a date with the Celtics looming on Friday. Orlando has gone 2-1 here in the 'bubble' but is coming off a double-digit loss against the Pacers last time out. While Toronto will be looking to sweep the 'season series' with the Magic I expect it to be in tough. Take Orlando (10*). |
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08-05-20 | Grizzlies +5.5 v. Jazz | 115-124 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Utah at 2:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies have struggled since the restart, going 0-3 but they've been competitive in all three games. They're coming off their worst effort though against the Pelicans last time out so I look for them to come out strong in this winnable game against the Jazz on Wednesday. Utah will certainly be motivated coming off back-to-back losses but I simply feel they're being asked to lay too many points in this spot. Note that this will be the first of a three game in four days stretch for the Jazz. Look for this one to go down to the wire. Take Memphis (10*). |
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08-03-20 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans OVER 238.5 | 99-109 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and New Orleans at 6:35 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' in the Grizzlies narrow loss to the Spurs yesterday afternoon but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' as they match up against the struggling Pelicans on Monday. New Orleans is off to an 0-2 start so it will certainly be highly motivated to break out of its funk on Monday evening. This appears to be an ideal matchup for the Pelicans to do just that as they should be able to get out and run against a weary Grizzlies squad playing on no rest. Meanwhile, the Grizz have had two highly contrasted games so far with a high-scoring track meet against the Blazers followed by yesterday's relatively tight affair against the Spurs. Here, I'm confident we'll see them get loose and find some offensive success against a Pelicans that has struggled defensively all season long. Take the over (10*). |
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08-02-20 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 234.5 | 108-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between San Antonio and Memphis at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Travel day today. Full analysis will return on Monday. |
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07-31-20 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 218.5 | 112-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Milwaukee at 6:30 pm et on Friday. We saw both games stay 'under' the total in yesterday's double-header but I expect a different story to unfold as the Celtics and Bucks match up on day two of the NBA restart. Despite yesterday's results, I still believe we'll see some high-scoring affairs in the early going here at Disney as the teams have had more than enough time to get back into shape and acclimated with their surroundings. The Celtics and Bucks are two of the league's most dynamic offensive tams and I'm comfortable playing the 'over' at what I consider to be a low number. Take the over (10*). |
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Sean Murphy NBA Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-23-21 | Wolves v. Bucks -10.5 | Top | 112-139 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
02-22-21 | Wizards v. Lakers UNDER 226 | 127-124 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
02-21-21 | Nets +5.5 v. Clippers | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
02-20-21 | Heat v. Lakers UNDER 213 | Top | 96-94 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
02-19-21 | Jazz v. Clippers +4 | Top | 112-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
02-18-21 | Heat -1 v. Kings | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
02-17-21 | Blazers v. Pelicans -3 | Top | 126-124 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
02-16-21 | Pelicans +1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 144-113 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
02-15-21 | Hawks -1.5 v. Knicks | Top | 112-123 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
02-14-21 | Lakers -2.5 v. Nuggets | 105-122 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
02-13-21 | Pacers v. Hawks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 125-113 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
02-13-21 | 76ers v. Suns UNDER 225.5 | 111-120 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
02-12-21 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -7.5 | Top | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
02-12-21 | Clippers -6.5 v. Bulls | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
02-11-21 | 76ers v. Blazers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 114-118 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
02-11-21 | 76ers v. Blazers +5.5 | Top | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
02-11-21 | Raptors v. Celtics -157 | 106-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
02-10-21 | Cavs v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | 95-133 | Loss | -114 | 23 h 27 m | Show | |
02-10-21 | Hornets v. Grizzlies UNDER 226 | Top | 114-130 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
02-10-21 | Clippers -10 v. Wolves | Top | 119-112 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
02-09-21 | Warriors v. Spurs -1.5 | 114-91 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
02-08-21 | Warriors v. Spurs +1 | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
02-07-21 | Celtics v. Suns -3 | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show | |
02-06-21 | Blazers v. Knicks +1.5 | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
02-05-21 | Raptors v. Nets -4.5 | 123-117 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
02-04-21 | Nuggets +5 v. Lakers | 93-114 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
02-03-21 | Mavs v. Hawks +2 | 122-116 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
02-02-21 | Blazers +2 v. Wizards | 132-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
02-01-21 | Kings v. Pelicans -3.5 | 118-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
01-31-21 | Jazz +2 v. Nuggets | 117-128 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
01-30-21 | Blazers +2 v. Bulls | 123-122 | Win | 101 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
01-29-21 | Hawks v. Wizards OVER 232 | 116-100 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
01-27-21 | Celtics v. Spurs OVER 224 | 106-110 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
01-27-21 | Kings v. Magic -1.5 | 121-107 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
01-26-21 | Knicks +11 v. Jazz | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
01-25-21 | Hornets v. Magic +2 | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
01-24-21 | Hornets v. Magic -1.5 | 107-104 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
01-23-21 | Warriors v. Jazz UNDER 225.5 | Top | 108-127 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
01-22-21 | Knicks +4 v. Kings | 94-103 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
01-21-21 | Pelicans +7 v. Jazz | 118-129 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
01-20-21 | Heat v. Raptors -160 | 111-102 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
01-19-21 | Thunder v. Nuggets -9.5 | 101-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
01-18-21 | Wolves +8 v. Hawks | 97-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
01-17-21 | Pelicans v. Kings +2 | 128-123 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
01-15-21 | Mavs +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
01-14-21 | Warriors v. Nuggets -4.5 | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
01-13-21 | Mavs v. Hornets +4.5 | 104-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
01-12-21 | Spurs -1.5 v. Thunder | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
01-09-21 | Hawks -4 v. Hornets | 105-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
01-08-21 | Thunder v. Knicks -145 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
01-07-21 | Mavs v. Nuggets -134 | 124-117 | Loss | -134 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
01-07-21 | 76ers v. Nets UNDER 225 | 109-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
01-06-21 | Rockets +2 v. Pacers | 107-114 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
01-06-21 | Wizards +7 v. 76ers | 136-141 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
01-05-21 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +9 | Top | 94-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
01-04-21 | Knicks v. Hawks -6 | 113-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
01-03-21 | Clippers -136 v. Suns | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
01-02-21 | Cavs +7 v. Hawks | 96-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
01-01-21 | Blazers -165 v. Warriors | 123-98 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
12-31-20 | Cavs v. Pacers -7.5 | 99-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
12-30-20 | Hawks v. Nets -6 | 141-145 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 5 m | Show | |
12-29-20 | Raptors v. 76ers -2 | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
12-28-20 | Jazz v. Thunder +7.5 | 110-109 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
12-27-20 | Mavs +5 v. Clippers | 124-73 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
12-26-20 | Raptors -1 v. Spurs | 114-119 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
12-25-20 | Pelicans v. Heat -160 | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
12-23-20 | Hawks -1.5 v. Bulls | 124-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
12-22-20 | Clippers +3.5 v. Lakers | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
12-22-20 | Warriors v. Nets -7 | 99-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
10-11-20 | Lakers -5 v. Heat | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
10-09-20 | Heat v. Lakers OVER 216 | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show | |
10-02-20 | Heat v. Lakers OVER 216 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
09-22-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets +6.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
09-17-20 | Heat v. Celtics -132 | 106-101 | Loss | -132 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
09-15-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -7.5 | 104-89 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
09-11-20 | Celtics -128 v. Raptors | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
09-09-20 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 210 | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
09-03-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -8.5 | Top | 97-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
09-02-20 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 221 | Top | 116-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
09-01-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 217.5 | 78-80 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 59 m | Show | |
08-30-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -2.5 | 112-94 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
08-29-20 | Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 223 | 122-131 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | 111-154 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
08-25-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 221 | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
08-24-20 | Pacers v. Heat OVER 216.5 | Top | 87-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
08-23-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 217 | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
08-22-20 | Bucks v. Magic UNDER 226 | 121-107 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
08-21-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 218.5 | 87-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
08-20-20 | Heat -4 v. Pacers | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
08-19-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 217.5 | 124-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
08-18-20 | Heat -4.5 v. Pacers | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
08-17-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6 | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
08-17-20 | 76ers +6 v. Celtics | 101-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
08-17-20 | Nets +10 v. Raptors | 110-134 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
08-06-20 | Pacers -3 v. Suns | Top | 99-114 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
08-05-20 | Raptors v. Magic +6.5 | 109-99 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
08-05-20 | Grizzlies +5.5 v. Jazz | 115-124 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
08-03-20 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans OVER 238.5 | 99-109 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 3 m | Show | |
08-02-20 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 234.5 | 108-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
07-31-20 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 218.5 | 112-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |