Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-30-21 | Capitals v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams combined to score nine goals thanks to a wild third period on Sunday in Washington (the Capitals led the game 3-0 entering the third period before hanging on for a 5-4 win). I expect a lower-scoring affair in Tuesday night's rematch in Manhattan. The Caps have now scored four goals or more in three straight games but should face a tough challenge keeping that streak alive here, noting that the Rangers have allowed just 2.3 goals on average following a loss this season and have given up just 2.1 goals per game in 14 situations coming off a game where 9+ goals were scored over the last three seasons. Keep in mind, they held the Caps to just three goals combined in splitting a two-game set in Washington a couple of weeks ago. The Capitals will be venturing out on the road for the first time since March 15th. They boosted their scoring average away from home thanks to their last four road games coming against two of the league's worst defensive teams in Philadelphia and Buffalo. Here, they'll face a Rangers squad that allows just 2.7 goals per game on home ice this season. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-29-21 | Wild v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Monday. While both of these teams are coming off relatively low-scoring affairs last time out I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Monday night in San Jose. The Wild are coming off a perfect 3-0 homestand that also saw the 'under' go a perfect 3-0. They shut out the Blues 2-0 the last time they took the ice on Thursday. Note that the road hasn't been quite as kind to Minnesota this season as it has allowed 3.0 goals per game in a visitors role. I'll also point to the fact that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 when the Wild come off six or seven wins in their last eight games this season, allowing a whopping 4.5 goals per game in that spot with those contests totaling an average of 6.7 goals. The Sharks couldn't keep the positive momentum building off consecutive home wins over the rival Kings, dropping back-to-back games in Arizona on Friday and Saturday. They were held off the scoreboard entirely in Saturday's 4-0 drubbing but I do expect a solid bounce-back performance here. Note that San Jose is averaging 3.4 goals per game following an 'under' result over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.5 goals. Playing at home off a shutout loss, the Sharks have averaged 3.3 goals per game in the long-term picture, with the 'over' cashing at a 41-21 clip. The three previous meetings between these two teams this season have averaged 7.0 goals. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor UNDER 148.5 | 72-81 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Baylor at 9:55 pm et on Monday. The potential is obviously there for this to turn into a track meet on Monday night but that's ultimately been factored into the total. I like what both teams bring to the table defensively and with a spot in the Final Four hanging in the balance, look for points to come at a premium in this one (relatively speaking, of course). Note that Baylor has allowed just north of 57 points per game when playing for just the second time in eight days over the last two seasons. Saturday's win over Villanova wasn't overly taxing on the Bears as far as I'm concerned and I expect them to be extremely active at the defensive end of the floor in this one, noting that they entered the tournament ranked an impressive seventh in the nation in steals per possession and top-75 in block percentage. For Arkansas' part, it has been a top-25 team in terms of opponents floor percentage this season and top-65 in opponents effective field goal percentage. After a loosely-played affair that featured 138 combined field goal attempts against Oral Roberts, look for this game to take on a more defensive tone. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-29-21 | Cavs v. Jazz UNDER 222 | 75-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Monday. This is obviously a game that the Jazz can all but circle as a win as they look for their 20th victory at home on Monday night. While I'm not interested in laying the boatload of points in a spot where Utah should be able to name its score, I will call for a lower-scoring game than betting marketplace is accounting for. Note that the Cavs are averaging just north of 98 points per game on the road this season and don't figure to bust out against one of the league's best defensive teams statistically speaking. Jarrett Allen was becoming a big part of what the Cavs do offensively, scoring in double-figures in five straight games before going down with a concussion against the Lakers on Friday. He won't play on Monday. While Utah is coming off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results against Memphis (we won with the 'over' in Friday's game), the Jazz are actually locked in defensively right now, having held four straight opponents to 45.4% or lower shooting, limiting three of those opponents to 40.6% or worse. Again, the Cavs don't figure to be the team to throw the Jazz off course. Utah did shoot 50% from the field in Saturday's win over the Grizzlies, but that only served to snap a skid of 10 straight games shooting worse than 49%. It's certainly something worth noting should the pace slow a bit in this one once the Jazz are able to build a sizeable lead. The 'under' has gone 57-39 when the Jazz host non-conference opponents under the guidance of head coach Quin Snyder, with those games totaling just 202.1 points on average. Likewise, the 'under' is 87-64 when the Jazz play at home off a win under Snyder, with those contests reaching an average of 202.9 total points. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-29-21 | Oilers v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
NHL North Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The front half of this two-game set found its way 'over' the total no Saturday night as the Leafs delivered a 4-3 victory on home ice. I see value with the 'under' on Monday, however. While both teams are known for their offenses, both have also proven capable defensively, with Edmonton allowing just 2.7 goals per game on the road and Toronto giving up 2.6 goals per game on home ice. Note that the 'under' has gone 13-4 when the Oilers play on the road off a road game where both teams scored at least three goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with those games producing an average total of 5.3 goals. The 'under' has also gone 50-29 when the Oilers come off a game where there were seven or more goals scored over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 5.8 goals. Edmonton has generally been a solid bounce-back play on the road, giving up just 2.3 goals per game when playing away from home off a loss over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Toronto averages only 2.3 goals per game coming off a one-goal win at home over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-29-21 | Islanders v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Monday. While the Islanders have managed to take four of a possible six points on their current road trip, head coach Barry Trotz can't be happy with his team's performance over the last two games as they've given up a whopping nine goals, including a 6-3 loss to these same Penguins on Saturday. That sets us up well to play the 'under' in Monday's rematch, noting that the 'under' is 11-3 when the Isles play on the road revenging a loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, with those games totaling just 4.8 goals on average. Also note that New York has allowed just 1.6 goals per game after allowing three goals or more in consecutive games this season, with the 'under' going 9-2 in that spot and those contests totaling an average of just 4.1 goals. For their part, the Pens have posted an 0-6 o/u record when playing at home off three straight wins by multiple goals, as is the case here. That situation, albeit with a small sample size, has produced an average of just 4.1 total goals. Finally, the Isles check in having given up a minuscule 0.8 goals per game when coming off consecutive 'over' results this season. That situation has only come up six times with the 'under' going a perfect 6-0. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC UNDER 138 | 68-82 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and USC at 9:45 pm et on Sunday. When these teams met during the Pac-12 regular season they combined to score only 130 points and I anticipate more of the same here with a lot more to play for in the Sweet 16. While the Ducks put up a whopping 95 points in an extremely high-scoring affair against Iowa last time out, note that Oregon checks in 262nd in the nation in possessions per game and won't have much interest in a track meet here. Likewise, USC ranks north of 200th in the country in possessions per game and should be comfortable playing this one in the 50's or 60's. I like the disruptive nature of both defenses, with USC in particular being stingy around the basket, ranking an impressive 11th in the country in block percentage. The Trojans will let Oregon run its offense here, likely deep into the shot clock on most possessions, noting that USC ranks 316th in steals per possession. Conversely, while Oregon sits just inside the top-90 in block percentage, it ranks 45th in steals per possession. But again, what it does with those extra possessions should support our cause with the 'under' as the Ducks don't generally look to push the pace. Note that USC allows just 64.5 points per game playing away from home off a double-digit win over the last two seasons while Oregon gives up 64.2 ppg after an ATS win over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-28-21 | Panthers v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Dallas at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Panthers last night as they pulled out an overtime victory to snap their three-game losing streak. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as I anticipate a low-scoring affair in Big D. While Florida does average an impressive 3.6 goals per game on the road this season it remains undermanned with Sasha Barkov unlikely to return to the lineup on Sunday and Patric Hornqvist sidelined for an extended period. Note that the Stars have given up just 2.3 goals per game when coming off a loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just 4.8 goals. On the flip side, the Stars average just 2.1 goals per game following consecutive contests where both teams scored three or more goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Prior to last night's contest, the first three meetings between these two teams this season all produced five goals or less. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-28-21 | Florida State v. Michigan UNDER 143.5 | 58-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida State and Michigan at 5 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Florida State's blowout win over Colorado in the Round of 32 and I won't hesitate to go back the well with the same play here as the Seminoles challenge top-seeded Michigan on Sunday afternoon. This game will pit two elite defensive teams with Michigan ranking sixth in the nation in opponents effective field goal percentage and third in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Florida State is a top-20 team in opponents effective field goal percentage and a very respectable 48th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage this season. Both teams also rank inside the top-60 in opponents floor percentage. We'll see a contrast in styles here as Michigan will look to use most of the shot clock as it checks in 245th in the country in possessions per game while Florida State will undoubtedly try to speed things up, ranking 132nd in that category. I do believe both teams will be able to run their offenses without a great deal of disruption. Note in particular that Michigan ranks a woeful 337th in the nation in steals per possession this season. That's beneficial to Florida State given it doesn't always take great care of the basketball, ranking 251st in the nation in turnovers per possession. While I have a lot of respect for both of these offenses, I simply feel this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-28-21 | Suns v. Hornets OVER 220.5 | Top | 101-97 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Charlotte at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. Phoenix is coming off a low-scoring victory over the Raptors in Tampa on Friday, prevailing by a 104-100 score. The 'under' is now 4-1 in the Suns last five games overall. Meanwhile, the Hornets posted an 'over' result in Friday's win over the Heat. Still, the 'under' has gone 4-1 in their last five contests. Here, I'm anticipating a reversal of sorts as far as the recent 'under' trend goes for both teams. Note that the 'over' is 18-7 when the Suns have won four of their last five games over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 228.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 8-1 when the Hornets come off three ATS wins in their last four games this season, with those games totaling 228.4 points on average. The first meeting between these two teams took place back on February 24th in Phoenix and totaled a whopping 245 points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-28-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis UNDER 135.5 | 64-77 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Memphis at 12 noon et on Sunday. Both of these teams overwhelmed their opponents in yesterday's NIT matchups with Memphis scoring 90 points and Mississippi State putting up 84 points in blowout victories. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair. While the Bulldogs shot 56% from the field including 50% from beyond the arc yesterday, they can go cold just as quickly as they get hot, noting they've been held to fewer than 60 points on eight different occasions this season. Here, they'll be up against an elite Memphis defense that has only allowed one opponent to break 70 points since the beginning of March - that being Elite Eight-bound Houston. The Tigers also shot a blistering 56% from the field yesterday including 52% from beyond the arc but will have to deal with a Mississippi State defense that ranks 34th in the nation in block percentage. Also note that the Bulldogs do an excellent job cleaning up on the glass, ranking 12th in the country in total rebounding percentage. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-27-21 | Mavs v. Pelicans OVER 229.5 | 103-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and New Orleans at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. There's still some uncertainty as to whether Luka Doncic will play on Saturday night after missing last night's home game against the Pacers due to tightness in his back. That was more of a maintenance-related absence than anything else as far as I'm concerned and I expect to see Luka back on the floor in this second of back-to-backs for the Mavs. New Orleans played last night as well, suffering a home loss against the Nuggets. With both teams coming off subpar offensive showings last night I expect to see both bounce back with big performances on Saturday. Note that the 'over' has gone 12-2 when the Pelicans revenge a road loss against an opponent this season, with those games totaling 237.1 points on average. They've also posted a 16-6 o/u record after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 239.7 points. The lone previous meeting between these two teams this season totaled a whopping 273 points. When they met last March they combined to score 250 points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-27-21 | Pistons v. Wizards UNDER 225.5 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Washington at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have been generally trending to the 'under' lately even though the Pistons are coming off consecutive 'over' results (the 'under' is 5-3 in their last eight games). I'm not anticipating a track meet as the Pistons and Wizards match up for the first time this season on Saturday. Note that Detroit averages a miserable 95.1 points per game when coming off six or seven ATS wins in their last eight games over the last three seasons, with those games totaling just 206.2 points on average. They also average just 104.4 points per game - below their current season scoring average of 107.3 ppg - after scoring 110 points or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 217.6 points. Washington isn't in top form offensively, having scored 113 points or less in three straight games. I'm not sure how easy it will be for the Wizards to get up for this matchup with the lowly Pistons on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-27-21 | Oral Roberts v. Arkansas OVER 159 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 21 m | Show |
CBB Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oral Roberts and Arkansas at 7:25 pm et on Saturday. This will be the second meeting between these two schools this season with Arkansas cruising to a 87-76 victory back on December 20th. Here on Saturday, I believe the Razorbacks scoring 100 or more points is well within the realm of possibility - a bold prediction, I know, but the situation sets up well for a track meet between these two up-tempo teams. Oral Roberts entered this tournament ranked a miserable 292nd in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 187th in opponents effective field goal percentage. The Golden Eagles have rode their offense to consecutive upset victories over Ohio State and Florida to reach the Sweet 16 but now face a whole other sort of challenge, as they're well aware of after running into the Hogs during the regular season. I don't expect ORU to shy away from its regular gameplan here, as it entered the tourney ranked 42nd in the nation in possessions per game. That of course plays right into the hands of an Arkansas team that likes to play at a break-neck pace, entering the tournament ranked 12th in possessions per game. There's little reason to believe the Golden Eagles can offer much defensive resistance here as they rank north of 200th in the country in steals per possession and do an awful job rebounding, checking in north of 300th in total rebounding percentage. The hope for ORU here is that Arkansas gets a little carried away running the floor and lacks a bit of focus at the defensive end of the floor. After getting bogged down in a narrow win over defensive-minded Texas Tech, the Hogs will certainly welcome the opportunity to get loose in this one but it may come at the expense of their own defense. Either way, much like the regular season matchup did, I'm confident this one finds its way 'over' the lofty but not unreasonable posted total, noting that Arkansas averages a whopping 93.8 points per game when the total is set between 150 and 159.5 this season, with those contests totaling an average of 167.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-26-21 | Jets v. Flames OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -119 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Calgary at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Flames ran into a wall offensively on their most recent road trip, scoring just two goals over their last three games in Toronto and Ottawa after opening the trip with a four-goal outburst against the Leafs. At the face of it, scoring two goals in two games against the Senators looks awful. However, the Sens have been doing a much better job of keeping the puck out of their net, clearly placing a major emphasis on playing sound defense during their homestand. Just ask the Leafs, who scored just two goals in regulation time before escaping with an overtime win in Ottawa last night. Now Calgary finally returns home, where it averages 3.3 goals per game this season. It catches the Jets in a favorable situation here, noting that Winnipeg has allowed 3.9 goals per game when coming off a division road win over the last two seasons, with the 'over' going 12-2 in that situation, and those games averaging 7.3 total goals. Winnipeg has also allowed 3.7 goals per game following a win by four goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here following Wednesday's 5-1 win. The Jets have been one of the best offensive teams on the road this season, averaging 3.2 goals per game in enemy territory. Winnipeg averages 3.5 goals per game when revenging a loss against an opponent this season, with those games totaling just north of six goals on average. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz OVER 228 | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. As the total suggests, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the Grizzlies and Jazz in Salt Lake City on Friday night. The Grizzlies have been a different team on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 3.4 points per game above their season scoring average in a visitors' role. Not surprisingly, the 'over' has cashed at a 9-7-1 clip when they play on the road compared to a 9-15 o/u mark at home. They enter this game off three consecutive ATS victories which sets up well for the 'over', noting that it has gone 12-3 when Memphis plays after consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of 234.7 points. Of course, Utah boasts one of the most efficient offenses in the league. Even during a recent hiccup, the Jazz still continued to rack up the points and check into this one having scored 114 points or more in 13 straight games. That's even more impressive considering eight of those 13 games were played on the road. Here at home, Utah averages 117.8 points per game. It's worth noting that the Grizzlies have allowed 119.8 ppg as an underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points over the last two seasons. The last two meetings between these two teams have produced 238 and 239 total points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-25-21 | Boise State v. Memphis UNDER 143 | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and Memphis at 9 pm et on Thursday. Boise State has given up 80+ points in back-to-back games which I don't think speaks to the identity or quality of this Broncos team. Meanwhile, Memphis has been playing like an elite defensive team for weeks and does match up well with the Boise offense here. Note that the 'under' is 9-2 when Memphis checks in playing away from home off consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 128.9 points. The Tigers have allowed just 62 points per game in lined contests as a favorite this season. Meanwhile, Boise State has allowed just 67 points per game after scoring 80 points or more in its previous game over the last three seasons. Here, the Broncos will run into a Memphis squad that ranks top-three in the nation in opponents floor percentage this season. The Tigers also rank eighth in the country in steals per possession and 15th in block percentage. Boise State is what I would consider a 'tough out', however, noting that the Broncos do rank a respectable 63rd in the nation in defensive efficiency and 60th in turnovers per possession on offense. I'm not expecting a third straight track meet for Boise here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-25-21 | Red Wings v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in this matchup two nights ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Thursday. Detroit has been shutout in each of its last two games and checks in averaging a miserable 2.0 goals per game on the road this season. There's little reason to anticipate much progression here, noting that Detroit averages just 1.7 goals per game when playing on the road off a road loss over the last two seasons and 1.9 goals per game when revenging a road loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the same period. While the Wings are by no means a good defensive team, the Predators aren't likely to run it up on them, noting that Nashville averages only 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season and has scored more than three goals in regulation time just once in its last eight games. It's worth noting that Nashville averages just 2.2 goals per game after winning four of its last five games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. We've seen the 'under' cash in three of the last five meetings between these two teams in Nashville. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-25-21 | Blazers v. Heat UNDER 220 | Top | 125-122 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Heat have gone ice cold offensively over the course of a four-game losing streak which seemingly came out of nowhere. If Miami is going to snap its skid on Thursday night, I believe it will have to lean on its defense, which has the potential to be one of the best units in the league. Note that Miami checks in having allowed just 106.8 points per game when coming off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of 217.5 points. The Heat have been a positive momentum play from a defensive standpoint, having allowed just 104.3 points per game after consecutive 'under' results, with those contests totaling an average of just 213.6 points. Meanwhile, the Blazers have given up 109.9 points per game after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games over the last three seasons. That's not an impressive number on the face of it, but when you consider they give up an average of 115.5 points per game overall this season, it's worth noting. The 'under' has gone 19-7 in that situation over the last three seasons. It seems that outside of a 50-point outburst against New Orleans last week, Damian Lillard has been a little off his game since C.J. McCollum returned to the Blazers lineup. Expect some carry-over in the face of a tough defensive challenge against what should be a desperate Heat squad tonight. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-25-21 | Hurricanes v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. This will be the fourth consecutive game between the Hurricanes and Blue Jackets with the previous three all staying 'under' the total. I look for that trend to continue on Thursday. After Tuesday's 3-0 shutout loss, it's worth noting that the Jackets haven't exactly thrived in a bounce-back role, averaging just 2.4 goals per game when revenging a loss by three goals or more over the last three seasons, with those games averaging a total of just 5.3 goals. The 'under' has gone 25-9 when Columbus plays at home after winning two of its last three games, with those contests totaling an average of 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes average a miserable 1.7 goals per game when playing on the road following a game where three goals or less were scored, as is the case here, with those games averaging only 4.8 total goals. That same situation has produced a 3-12 o/u record over the last two seasons. I always like to say that familiarity lends itself to low-scoring games and with this being the seventh meeting between these two teams this season, I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-25-21 | NC State v. Colorado State UNDER 146 | Top | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between N.C. State and Colorado State at 7 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams put up 75 points in their NIT openers but I expect them to have a tough time approaching that number as they match up in this quarter-final game on Thursday night. Note that N.C. State ranks just 225th in the nation in possessions per game while Colorado State checks in 205th. I do think the Wolfpack will be able to run their offense in this one as the Rams rank 258th in steals per possession and 232nd in block percentage. However, Colorado does rank an impressive 64th in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage, not to mention 25th in opponents floor percentage. The Rams offense will be taking a step up in class against N.C. State here, noting that the Wolfpack rank 11th in the country in steals per possession and 34th in block percentage. I do think Colorado State will have a tough time getting comfortable at the offensive end of the floor. Keep in mind, this is a Rams squad that shoots below 44% from the field away from home this season. Also alarming for Colorado State is the fact that it ranks 251st in the nation in extra scoring chances per game. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-24-21 | Kings v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
NHL Rivalry Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a low-scoring affair two nights ago as the Sharks skated to a 2-1 victory on home ice. I'm expecting a higher-scoring contest on Wednesday night. Note that while San Jose gave up just one goal in Monday's game, it has still allowed 3.6 goals per game on home ice this season. The 'over' is 19-9 when the Sharks come off a game in which they allowed one goal or less over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.5 goals. I'll also point out that the 'over' is 16-6 when San Jose plays at home off a win over a division opponent over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 7.0 goals. The Kings average a respectable 2.9 goals per game when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons but also allow 3.6 goals per game coming off a game where four goals or less were scored over the last three seasons. Prior to Monday, the two previous meetings between these two rivals this season both produced at least seven goals. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-24-21 | Suns v. Magic OVER 213 | 111-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'over' in the Magic's double-digit loss to the Nuggets last night. Despite Orlando's awful night offensively the game still ended up approaching the posted total. Tonight, I look for the Suns and Magic to eclipse what is a relatively-low total by today's NBA standards. Note that the Suns were also involved in a relatively low-scoring affair last night, posting a 110-100 win in Miami. Phoenix falls into an interesting situation here, as it has posted a 17-7 o/u record after winning four of its last five games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 228.4 points. Meanwhile, the Magic are a solid negative momentum play defensively, supporting our cause with the 'over', as they give up 115.3 points per game after allowing 110 points or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons. That situation has produced an average total of 222.8 points. I can certainly understand the logic behind the low posted total here as the first meeting between these two teams produced just 199 points in a Suns rout back on February 14th. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams met in Orlando they combined to produce a whopping 242 total points in a Magic upset victory last season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-23-21 | Lightning v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in this same matchup last week but I'm going to come back with the same play in the rematch on Tuesday night. We won with the Lightning on Sunday as they poured it on late for a 5-3 victory over the Panthers. While they're certainly the superior team in this matchup, Dallas is set up reasonably well having allowed just 2.2 goals per game coming off a loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, and giving up just 2.6 goals per game on average at home this season. Note that the 'under' is 20-6 when the Stars play at home off of three losses in their last four games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.9 goals. This will mark the 10th meeting between these two teams since the start of 2020 with Tampa holding Dallas to three goals or less in seven of the last nine matchups. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-23-21 | Red Wings v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Obviously the looming possibility of Thomas Greiss getting the start in goal for the Red Wings is concerning (Greiss has been awful this season) but I think it is offset by the way this situation sets up in general, supporting a play on the 'under'. The Predators are coming off an encouraging road trip that saw them win four games while also grabbing a point in an overtime loss over the course of eight games. This quote from Ryan Johansen has me concerned a letdown could be in order on Tuesday, however. "This was a make-or-break trip for us. We had to find a way to get points and win some games, and then we did that." Note that the 'under' has gone 10-2 with the Preds returning home following a road win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.0 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 10-1 when the Preds return home following a road win in which they scored four or more goals over the last three seasons, as is the case here. That spot has produced an average total of just 3.8 goals. Meanwhile, the Red Wings scoring woes have been well-documented. They average just 1.9 goals per game when playing on the road following a division game over the last two seasons. On a positive note for Detroit, Nashville averages just 2.1 goals per game after winning three of its last four games over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-23-21 | Nuggets v. Magic OVER 216 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results on Sunday but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Nuggets and Magic square off in Orlando. Denver still managed to shoot 50% from the field in Sunday's home loss to the Pelicans - its third straight game shooting 50% or better. Of course, that's nothing out of the ordinary as the Nuggets have shot 50% or better from the field in seven of their last 10 games overall. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 8-0 when the Nuggets come off a home loss this season, with those games averaging 226.6 total points. We've also seen an average total of 223.6 points scored when the Nuggets come off consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons. Orlando got bogged down in a matinee affair in Boston on Sunday, scoring just 96 points in a blowout loss. Keep in mind, in their most recent home game, the Magic scored 121 points in an upset win over the Nets (we won with Orlando in that contest). The Magic have been getting healthier and generally playing better basketball lately and should be able to take advantage of a Denver squad that ranks bottom-five in the league in both opponents' floor percentage and opponents effective field goal percentage over its last three games. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-23-21 | Devils v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 112 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Devils are coming off six consecutive 'under' results but it's worth noting that five of those games were played at home (where they've been involved in mostly low-scoring affairs this season) and the lone road game came in Pittsburgh against a Penguins team that has been involved in a string of low-scoring games lately. We've seen quite a contrast in the Devils results at home compared to on the road. Note that New Jersey is averaging 3.2 goals per game away from home this season while giving up 3.0 goals per contest on a whopping 35.6 shots on goal per game. The 'over' has cashed at an 8-4 clip when New Jersey plays on the road compared to a 4-13 o/u mark on home ice. We won with the 'under' in the Flyers overtime loss here at home against the Islanders last night, snapping Philadelphia's streak of seven straight 'over' results. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 7-0 when the Flyers come off two straight losses against division opponents over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 8.3 goals. The 'over' is also a perfect 7-0 when Philadelphia checks in having lost three of its last four games over the last two seasons with that situation producing 8.4 total goals on average. After being held to just six goals in a three-game set with the Penguins, the Devils should be excited at the prospect of facing a Flyers squad that has given up at least four goals in six of their last eight games overall. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-22-21 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 230 | Top | 113-140 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Milwaukee at 9:10 pm et on Monday. There's a good chance that Giannis Antetokounmpo will be forced to miss Monday's game due to a nagging injury but that has only resulted in a slight shift in the total. After the first meeting between these teams sailed 'over' the total earlier this season, I believe the number will prove too high on Monday night. Note that the 'under' is 28-15 when the Pacers come off consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons with those games totaling just 215.6 points on average. The Pacers average just 107.8 points per game after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games this season, as is the case here. That scoring average is well below their season average of 113.1 points per game. Likewise, with Indiana coming off of three straight games that reached 215 or more points this season, its next game has averaged just 220.7 total points, well south of the total we're dealing with tonight. The Bucks check in allowing just 103 points per game against division opponents over the last two seasons. After allowing 113 points in a win over a road-weary Spurs team that was playing the second of back-to-back nights on Saturday, and likely without Giannis in the lineup, I look for the Bucks to clamp down defensively in this one. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-22-21 | Colorado v. Florida State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
CBB Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Florida State at 7:45 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in second round action on Monday night. The Buffaloes exploded for 96 points in a rout of Georgetown on Saturday but I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. Monday's opponent, Florida State, entered the tournament ranked 12th in the nation in block percentage and 32nd in opponents effective field goal percentage this season. For its part, Colorado entered the tournament ranked a very respectable 41st in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 30th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. The Buffaloes 96-point outburst in the opening round was unlikely considering they rank north of 300th in the country in possessions per game. I expect a much different type of game to unfold against the Seminoles on Monday. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 when Colorado comes off a game where 155 or more points were scored over the last two seasons with those contests totaling just 126.6 points on average. The 'under' is also 24-8 when Colorado plays after winning four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just 132.3 points. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-22-21 | Islanders v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. While I don't generally play a lot of Flyers 'unders' (for obvious reasons), I do like the way the spot sets up on Monday night. The Isles have of course shown a strong home-road dichotomy when it comes to totals this season. The 'under' has gone 14-2 in their 16 road games to date, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.5 goals. Also note that the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 when the Isles play on the road after a home win against a division opponent over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of just 3.7 goals. Meanwhile, the Flyers have posted a 1-8 o/u mark when at home revenging a loss by 4+ goals against an opponent over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just 4.6 goals. The 'under' is also 11-3 when the Flyers play on home ice after three consecutive games that saw at least seven goals scored, as is the case here. That situation has totaled an average of 4.8 goals. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-21-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 1-3 | Win | 102 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'under' in this matchup on Friday night as the Knights skated to a 4-2 win to send it 'over' the total. I'll make the same play again on Sunday, however, noting that the 'under' has gone 24-12 when the Kings play at home after losing three of their last four games over the last two seasons. The Knights are giving up just 2.1 goals per game following an 'over' result this season. The 'under' is a solid 56-36 when they play for the fourth time in the last seven days over the last three seasons as well. With the 'over' having cashed in three straight meetings, we're seeing the total shaded to the over again here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-21-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois UNDER 133.5 | 71-58 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Loyola-Chicago and Illinois at 12:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Illinois' opening round win over Drexel and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday as the Illini take in Loyola-Chicago. The Ramblers play at one of the slowest paces in the entire nation, yet they're coming off an 'over' result in their opening round matchup - a 71-60 win over Georgia Tech. Note that in 10 games where the Ramblers played on the road off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, those contests totaled an average of just 126.7 points. Loyola-Chicago entered the tournament ranked tops in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 14th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Of course, Illinois is no slouch defensively as we saw on Friday as it held Drexel to 30.6% shooting. While Loyola-Chicago will likely improve on that shooting performance here, I'm not convinced it will be enough to get this one 'over' the total. In what has the potential to be a tightly-contested affair it's worth mentioning that Illinois ranks 234th in the country in free throw percentage. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-20-21 | UCLA v. BYU OVER 138.5 | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
CBB First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and BYU at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in UCLA's overtime victory over Michigan State in Thursday's First Four matchup and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Saturday as the Bruins take on the Cougars of BYU. As I noted in Thursday's analysis, Bruins head coach Mick Cronin noted during the Pac-12 Tournament that his team had 'hit a wall' both mentally and physically. I mentioned that I felt the week off following their exit from the Pac-12 Tournament might serve them well and that's precisely what appeared to be the case on Thursday as the Bruins played loose and scored 86 points (77 of those in regulation time), shooting better than 46% from the field and turning the ball over only eight times. I like the way this sets up as another relatively high-scoring affair on Saturday. Note that UCLA checks in 38th in the nation in offensive efficiency and an even better 27th in floor percentage. For its part, BYU also ranks highly at the offensive end of the floor, sitting 42nd in offensive efficiency and 59th in floor percentage. While the Cougars also check in as a solid defensive team, it's certainly worth noting that they didn't face many elite offenses outside of Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference. In two matchups against Gonzaga, BYU gave up 82 and 88 points. While UCLA is by no means on the same level as Gonzaga, the point is still worth making as a now-healthy Bruins squad is certainly capable of giving the Cougars some heartburn defensively. I like the fact that neither team causes a great deal of chaos at the defensive end of the floor. UCLA ranks a miserable 299th in steals per possession and 214th in block percentage. For its part, BYU ranks 329th and 220th in those two categories, respectively. While the Bruins don't prefer a fast pace, ranking 288th in possessions per game, they do make up for it by ranking 61st in extra scoring chances per game. This may not turn out to be a track meet, but it doesn't have to be with the total sitting in the 130's. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-19-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We've somewhat surprisingly seen a pair of high-scoring games between these two teams this season but I look for a return to 'normal' on Friday night as Vegas puts its four-game winning streak on the line in Los Angeles. Note that Vegas is giving up just 1.5 goals per game when going on the road off a one-goal victory over the last two seasons, with the 'under' cashing at a 10-2 clip in that situation. The Knights are of course coming off consecutive one-goal wins over the Sharks earlier this week (we won with San Jose on the puck-line in both of those games). Meanwhile, the Kings have posted a 1-11 o/u record when playing at home off a win by 2+ goals against a division opponent over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of just 3.6 goals. The Kings posted a 4-1 victory over the reeling Blues two nights ago after that game was postponed on Monday with L.A. stuck in Denver due to a snowstorm. The Knights are allowing just 2.2 goals per game on the road this season but the Kings have been no slouches at home either, giving up just 2.7 goals per contest. They haven't given up more than three goals in a game here at Staples Center since back on February 9th against San Jose. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-19-21 | Drexel v. Illinois UNDER 143.5 | 49-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Drexel and Illinois at 1:15 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Illinois' Big Ten Championship Game win over Ohio State last Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Illini begin what they hope will be a deep NCAA Tournament run. While the Illini should handle Drexel without too much heartburn, there are a number of reasons why I believe the Dragons can at least keep things respectable and ultimately help keep this one 'under' the total. Drexel actually ranks 42nd in the nation in offensive efficiency this season and 50th in floor percentage. Against an Illinois defense that ranks 263rd in steals per possession and 224th in block percentage I do think the Dragons will be able to run their offense to a certain extent but I question how many productive possessions (possessions resulting in points) they'll have given Illinois ranks 34th in the nation in opponents effective field goal percentage. Note that Drexel ranks 319th in the country in possessions per game so it isn't going to look to push the pace in this one. That's obviously a stark contrast to Illinois, which ranks 70th in possessions per game but I do think the Dragons can at least make a concerted effort to bog things down a little bit in this one - it's really their only hope of staying competitive. I'll also point out that Drexel ranks 235th in extra scoring chances per game while Illinois has also been quite average in that category, ranking 130th. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-18-21 | UCLA v. Michigan State OVER 134.5 | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Michigan State at 9:55 pm et on Thursday. In previous years this matchup may have set up as a defensive slugfest but given the current state of both programs, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair on Thursday night. Note that both UCLA and Michigan State have given up well north of 70 points per game away from home this season. Michigan State enters this game riding a six-game 'under' streak and admittedly played pretty solid defense down the stretch. I believe UCLA will give it some trouble on Thursday night, however. The time off since the Bruins made their unceremonious exit from the Pac-12 Tournament should have served them well as this was a team that head coach Mick Cronin admitted had 'hit the wall' near the end of a trying season due to injuries and otherwise. This 'First Four' berth gives the Bruins a new lease on life, so to speak. Note that UCLA ranks an impressive 28th in the nation in floor percentage this season and also checks in 62nd in the country in extra scoring chances per game. The problem for the Bruins is that they rank 199th in opponents effective field goal percentage, really not able to make life difficult on opposing offenses with any consistency over the course of the season. Michigan State got bogged down offensively at times but that's pretty much par for the course against some elite defensive teams in the Big Ten. Keep in mind, prior to the onset of conference play, the Spartans averaged 84.8 points per game in six non-conference tilts. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-18-21 | Pelicans v. Blazers OVER 239.5 | 93-101 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. These two teams were involved in an absolute thriller two nights ago with Damian Lillard bringing the Blazers all the way back in a 125-124 come-from-behind victory. I'm anticipating another high-scoring affair on Thursday, as the seemingly lofty total would suggest. I actually feel the total could be even higher than it is. Note that the 'over' is 13-2 when the total is set at 230+ points in games involving the Pelicans this season. That situation has produced an average total of 247.9 points. Interestingly, the Blazers have posted an 11-0 o/u record when playing at home off a game they won but failed to cover the spread, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 244.4 points. This series couldn't be much more higher-scoring with the last four meetings producing 249, 250, 243 and 255 total points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-18-21 | Stars v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Detroit's most recent game - a 4-2 victory over Carolina on Tuesday night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as the Wings host the Stars on Thursday night. Dallas suffered a 4-3 shootout loss against Tampa Bay two nights ago as it continues to struggle to post consecutive victories. Now the Stars head back on the road where they average just 2.4 goals per game this season. While the Red Wings are coming off a four-goal outburst on Tuesday, their offensive struggles have been well-documented. Note that they've posted an 0-6 o/u record when revenging a loss where they gave up 5+ goals this season, averaging just 1.3 goals per game in that situation. The 'under' is also 9-2 when the Wings come off a home win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, with those games averaging just 5.1 total goals. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-18-21 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Hurricanes will undoubtedly be in a foul mood on Thursday night after dropping a 4-2 decision against the lowly Red Wings in Detroit on Tuesday. That game saw three power play goals scored in the first 13 minutes but only three more were scored the rest of the way including a Wings empty net goal. I look for a strong bounce-back performance from the Canes here at home against the Blue Jackets, who average just 2.1 goals per game on the road this season. Columbus is also looking to bounce back after suffering a 2-1 shootout loss against the Stars on Sunday. Note that the 'under' is 30-16 when the Blue Jackets come off a one-goal loss in their last game over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State UNDER 141 | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Drake and Wichita State at 6:25 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up as more of a grind-it-out, defensive battle than the oddsmakers are accounting for on Thursday. I expect to see both teams run their offenses in this one, with not a lot of fast break and transition points with both sides adept at taking care of the basketball. Note that Drake ranks an impressive ninth in the country in fewest turnovers per possession while Wichita State checks in a very respectable 24th. Drake is also 299th in the country in possessions per game with Wichita State in the middle of the pack in that department, ranking 168th. I'm not expecting either team to stray from their preferred style and really look to speed things up here with a berth in the field of 64 on the line. Drake is expected to have ShanQuan Hemphill back in the lineup for the first time since February but it remains to be seen how much he will contribute in his first game back. Both teams rank top-100 in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage this season, with Wichita State sitting in the top-50. Note that the 'under' is 10-2 when Wichita State follows two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 129.5 points. With the Missouri Valley Conference being quite top-heavy this season, Drake was able to pad its offensive stats against some weak opposition. Meanwhile, Wichita State - a former MVC member - now resides in the American Athletic Conference, which is known for its high-scoring, up-tempo teams. It all adds up to a relatively high posted total for this one, and I believe that number will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-16-21 | Lightning v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Lightning finally saw their 'over' streak come to an end at five games in yesterday's 4-1 home loss to the Predators. While Tampa Bay had been lighting it up offensively prior to that contest, that had a lot to do with its schedule, having faced only the Blackhawks, Red Wings and Predators since the beginning of March. The last time the Lightning faced the Stars was on February 27th, when they skated to a 5-0 victory. That actually sets up the 'under' well in this spot, noting that Dallas has posted a 3-12 o/u record at home when revenging a road loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons with those games averaging just 4.4 total goals. While Dallas has been a general disappointment this season, it has performed reasonably well at home, where it gives up just 2.4 goals per game. Also note that the Stars have posted a 3-13 o/u record when returning home off a road game over the last two seasons, giving up just 2.2 goals per game in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-16-21 | Cavs v. Heat UNDER 213 | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Miami at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is a low total by today's NBA standards but it's warranted in my opinion. The Cavs will be playing just their third game since the All-Star break with neither of the previous two going well at all - blown out by 34 and 18 points at the hands of the Pelicans and Hawks. With that in mind, I do expect to see them play some defense here tonight and they draw perhaps a more favorable matchup with the Heat unlikely to really push the pace. Note that Miami's offense is below-average - the Heat haven't shot better than 50% from the field in a game just once since February 20th. On the flip side, Miami has been an excellent defensive team on its home floor, giving up just north of 107 points per game on below 44% shooting. This isn't a likely breakout spot for the Cavs offense, noting that they average just 98.7 points per game on the road this season. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-15-21 | Oilers v. Flames UNDER 6 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Flames went back to basics against the Canadiens over the last two games and it paid off as they posted consecutive low-scoring victories, 2-1 and 3-1. They'll host the rival Oilers on Monday night and I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair. The Oilers had a couple of offensive explosions against the Senators last week but outside of that, they've had a bit of a tough time offensively, scoring three goals or less in seven of their last nine games overall, including a 2-1 loss in Vancouver on Saturday. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-3 when the Oilers play on the road off a loss over the last two seasons, with those games averaging just 5.2 total goals. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 when Edmonton plays on the road after scoring one goal or less in its last game over the last two seasons, with those contests averaging just 4.3 total goals. Calgary has been pretty tough defensively on home ice this season, allowing just 2.6 goals per game and 27.2 shots on goal per game. Both numbers represent vast improvements over how they've performed on the road. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-15-21 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 225 | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Brooklyn at 8:05 pm et on Monday. New York turned in a peak offensive performance in Saturday's 119-97 rout of the Thunder in Oklahoma City with R.J. Barrett and Julius Randle going off for a combined 58 points on 20-of-36 shooting. Here, they'll obviously be facing a much tougher test against a Nets squad that while known for their offense, can play some defense as well. Brooklyn held Detroit to an almost unheard of (by today's NBA standards) 95 points on Saturday - the third time it has held an opponent to fewer than 100 points in its last nine games. Here, the Nets catch the Knicks in a favorable spot, with New York having averaged just 103.1 points per game after being involved in three straight games where at least 215 points were scored over the last three seasons. For whatever reason, the Knicks seem to get stronger defensively the longer they stay on the road. Off two consecutive road games this season, New York is allowing just 100.1 points per game. All Knicks road games have totaled an average of only 206.2 points, with the 'under' cashing at a 14-7 clip. The only previous meeting between these two teams this season totaled 225 points and that's likely why we're seeing a considerable bump in the total here (that first matchup saw a closing total of just 216.5 points). Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-15-21 | Capitals v. Sabres UNDER 6 | Top | 6-0 | Push | 0 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Sabres are in dire straights right now, having lost 10 consecutive games with no signs of turning things around. On a positive note, they did hold the Penguins to a single goal before giving up a pair of empty-net goals late in Saturday's 3-0 loss. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 8-0 when the Sabres come off a shutout loss over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 4.7 goals. The Capitals have won four games in a row and check in having scored exactly five goals in three straight games. That's obviously not a sustainable trend, noting that prior to that stretch the Caps had scored a grand total of nine goals in their last four games. The 'under' has gone an incredible 41-14 when a team that has allowed three goals or more in four straight games faces an opponent coming off three straight games where eight or more total goals were scored. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-15-21 | Bruins v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I'll call for a relatively low-scoring game between these two rivals on Monday night as the Bruins look to rebound following Saturday's 4-0 drubbing at the hands of the Rangers while the Penguins aim to keep rolling off five straight victories. Note that the previous two meetings between these two teams this season have both stayed 'under' 5.5 goals. The 'under' is 8-1 when the Bruins play on the road off a loss by two goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons with those games totaling just 4.9 goals on average. The Pens have been outstanding at home this season, going 11-2 while averaging an impressive 3.9 goals per game. However, they average just 2.4 goals per game when coming off a win by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling just 4.8 total goals on average. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-14-21 | Hurricanes v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 106 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Detroit at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. The Red Wings have been involved in some improbably high-scoring games lately (considering how many low-scoring contests they were involved in during the first month of the season. The 'over' actually checks in 6-1 in the Wings last seven games. I believe we're in line for a low-scoring affair in the Motor City on Sunday, however, with the Hurricanes rolling into town. This is obviously a bit of a tough spot for the Canes from a motivation standpoint. They come in on the heels of seven straight wins and a four-game homestand. That homestand is notable as they average just 1.0 goal per game (you read that right) the last seven times they've gone on the road following four consecutive games at home over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Red Wings have averaged just 1.7 goals per game when playing at home revenging a loss where they gave up five goals or more (as is the case here) over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-14-21 | Ohio State v. Illinois UNDER 148.5 | 88-91 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Illinois at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. Illinois has absolutely lit it up through two games at this tournament, scoring 90 and 82 points in wins over Rutgers and Iowa. It faces a much tougher defensive challenge on Sunday, however, in the form of a streaking Ohio State squad. The Buckeyes limited a terrific Michigan team to 67 points on 35% shooting yesterday, and the Wolverines only got to that number thanks to a desperate late scoring flurry. While Illinois obviously poses a stiff test, the Buckeyes did hold the Illini to 73 points despite allowing them to shoot 52% from the field in a losing effort just last weekend. I certainly don't anticipate Illinois shooting better than 50% today with a Big Ten Championship on the line. Illinois gave up 71 points in yesterday's win but that was the first time it allowed north of 70 points since February 23rd against Michigan State. Don't count on Ohio State shooting better than 50% from three-point range again today. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-13-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State UNDER 128.5 | Top | 57-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah State and San Diego State at 6 pm et on Saturday. This has all the makings of one of Saturday's most entertaining games but that certainly doesn't mean we should expect a track meet. Both teams are capable of playing lock down defense although San Diego State is coming off an uncharacteristically high-scoring affair in last night's 77-70 win over Nevada. I expect a return to 'normal' here on Saturday. Utah State had little trouble getting past a good Colorado State team last night, allowing just 50 points in a double-digit victory. The Aggies check in eighth in the country in defensive rating. For their part, the Aztecs rank 11th in defensive rating. When these two teams met back on January 16th they combined to score 123 points. This feels like it could be a 'first to 60 wins' type of game. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-12-21 | Sharks v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 6-0 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Ducks have now seen the 'over' cash in three straight games but I look for that streak to come to an end on Friday night. Note that the last 11 times the Ducks have come off three consecutive 'over' results, the 'under' has gone 9-2 with those contests totaling an average of just 4.5 goals. The 'under' is also a stellar 10-1 when the Ducks play at home revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, with those games totaling a ridiculously low average of 4.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Sharks notched a win over the Blues last time out but that sets them up poorly here as they average just 1.8 goals per game off a victory this season. The last two meetings in this series have totaled just five and three goals. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Blackhawks v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -122 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Tuesday's matchup between these two teams but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Thursday. Note that the Stars are allowing just 2.1 goals per game at home off a home win by two goals or more over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.6 goals. Dallas' six-goal outburst on Tuesday was uncharacteristic, noting that it has averaged just 2.4 goals per game after losing four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons. As far as the Blackhawks go, virtually all signs point to a high-scoring result as that has been the long-term trend. However, this season they're averaging just 2.4 goals per game on the road. They've scored a grand total of 10 goals in the last six meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Rangers v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Bruins are coming off consecutive low-scoring results with a grand total of just three goals scored in regulation time in losses against the Devils and Islanders. I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday as they welcome the Rangers to TD Garden. Note that the Rangers have seen the 'over' go 5-2-1 over their last eight contests. The main reason we're dealing with a reasonably low total here is the fact that three of four meetings between these two teams this season have totaled five goals or less. This one sets up well as a high-scoring affair, however, noting that the 'over' has gone a perfect 7-0 when the Bruins come off consecutive games where four goals or less were scored with those games totaling an average of 7.8 goals. Also note that the Rangers have posted a 9-1 o/u record when coming off a road loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 7.6 goals. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-10-21 | Kings v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -125 | 24 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Anaheim at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in this matchup on Monday night as the Kings and Ducks were involved in an uncharacteristically high-scoring affair. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday night, however. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 7-0 when the Ducks follow two consecutive games in which they scored four goals or more over the last three seasons. In those games, Anaheim averaged just 1.6 goals with the games reaching an average total of just 4.4 goals. Meanwhile, the Kings have posted a 2-13 o/u mark after scoring five goals or more in their previous contest over the last three seasons, averaging just 2.1 goals per game with those games totaling an average of only 4.4 goals. Keep in mind, prior to Monday's game, the last three meetings in this series had produced no more than four total goals. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-09-21 | Blackhawks v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We were involved in a couple of games involving these teams over the weekend, cashing with the Stars in Saturday's 5-0 victory over Columbus and successfully fading the Blackhawks in Sunday's 6-3 loss to the Lightning. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair between these division rivals. Note that the Blackhawks are averaging just 2.5 goals per game on the road this season. Interestingly, playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games the Blackhawks have played to an average total of just 3.4 goals. The Stars have posted a 3-12 o/u mark when playing at home after losing two of their last three games over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of just 4.6 goals. This series has been an 'under' bettors dream in recent years with each of the last five matchups, including both this season, totaling three goals or less. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-08-21 | Kings v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -128 | 25 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring results last time out with the Kings defeating the Blues 4-3 and the Ducks upsetting the Avalanche by a 5-4 score. Here, I look for a return to 'normal' for both teams as they tangle in what figures to be a low-scoring affair on Monday night. Note that the Kings have averaged just two goals per game when on the road after allowing three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons. They're averaging an identical two goals per game after scoring four goals or more in a home victory over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Ducks average a miserable 1.9 goals per game as well after recording a one-goal win in their last game over the last two seasons. The last three meetings in this series have totaled just three, four and four total goals, with the latter coming in the lone previous matchup this season. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-04-21 | Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 234.5 | Top | 112-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Memphis at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Memphis is coming off consecutive offensive explosions away from home, scoring 133 and 125 points in victories over the Rockets and Wizards, respectively. Of course, it will be taking a major step up in class here against one of the league's best defensive teams in the Bucks. Note that Milwaukee will certainly be in a foul mood after suffering a 128-97 loss at home against the Nuggets on Tuesday. That flat spot probably should have been expected given it was coming off consecutive close wins in nationally-televised games against the Pelicans and Clippers. That blowout result sets us up well with the 'under' in this matchup, noting that the Bucks have allowed just 106.6 points per game following an outright loss as a favorite over the last three seasons. Those 50 games totaled an average of just 223.6 points. To take it a step further, Milwaukee has allowed just north of 100 ppg when coming off a double-digit upset loss as a favorite over that same period, with those contests reaching just 216.5 total points on average. With the Grizzlies coming off consecutive road games, their next contest has averaged just north of 215 total points over the last three seasons. Keep in mind, Memphis actually owns a losing record at home compared to a winning mark on the road this season, scoring around three points per game below its season average in the host role. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-03-21 | Blues v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Anaheim at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Blues are coming off two straight high-scoring games, including a 5-4 win here in Anaheim two nights ago. I'm expecting a reversal of sorts on Wednesday night as the Ducks look to bring an end to their seven-game losing streak. Note that the 'under' is 11-2 when the Blues come off consecutive games where at least seven goals were scored, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.5 goals. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-1 when the Ducks look to revenge a one-goal loss against an opponent, with those games reaching an average total of only 3.9 goals. Finally, the Ducks have posted a 4-14 o/u mark following five or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, with those games averaging exactly five goals. This could certainly be seen as a flat spot for the Blues off back-to-back wild, one-goal road wins while Anaheim needs to ratchet up the intensity and snap their long skid before a tough two-game set in Colorado. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-02-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 215.5 | Top | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. It's quite surprising that the books haven't sent out a higher total for this one, knowing full well bettors will be itching for action and quick to pull the trigger on the 'over' in this high-profile late night matchup on Tuesday. With all of that being said, I can't help but feel this total has been set too low, and believe both offenses are in line for strong performances in this intriguing Western Conference showdown. Note that the Suns will be playing their third road game in the last five days, a situation that has produced an average total of 234 points over the last two seasons. There have been 11 occasions where the Suns have played on the road after winning four of their last five games over the last three seasons, and those contests have reached an average total of over 231 points. Meanwhile, the Lakers have seen their games average just shy of 223 total points when playing at home off a double-digit home win, as is the case here. The 'under' has cashed in the Suns last two games and the Lakers last three and both teams rank well in most defensive categories. That's why we're seeing such a low total (by today's NBA standards) but I believe it will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
03-01-21 | Miami-FL v. Virginia OVER 124 | Top | 51-62 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Virginia at 6 pm et on Monday. There's no question, Virginia is more known for its defensive prowess than its offensive exploits, but the fact is the Cavaliers enter Monday's game riding a three-game 'over' streak and the 'over' has cashed at a 7-3-1 clip when they play at home this season. Miami has lost five games in a row and should throw everything it has at the Cavaliers in this spot. Note that the Hurricanes haven't posted consecutive 'under' results since back on January 19th and 24th. Since then, the 'over' has gone 5-3 in their last eight games. Also note that the 'over' is 16-6 when Virginia plays at home off an upset loss against a conference opponent, with those games reaching an average total of more than 138 points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-25-21 | Devils v. Sabres OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 109 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. After seeing a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams two nights ago I look for a reversal of sorts on Thursday as the scene shifts to Buffalo for the rematch. The Devils have been held to three goals or less in four straight games but despite scoring just once in Tuesday's loss, they did manage to fire 42 shots on goal in what was actually a fairly wide-open affair despite only five goals being scored (79 combined shots on goal). Note that the 'over' has gone 23-9 when the Devils come off three losses in their last four games over the last three seasons with those games reaching an average total of 6.9 goals. The 'over' is a perfect 6-0 when the Devils come off a home loss against a divisional opponent over the last two seasons with New Jersey allowing a whopping 4.8 goals per game in that situation and those contests totaling an average of 7.5 goals. While the 'under' has gone 18-8 when the Sabres are coming off five or six losses in their last seven games over the last two seasons, those contests have actually totaled an average of six goals. The total has quite simply been set too low for this one. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-24-21 | Pistons v. Pelicans OVER 222 | Top | 118-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. Despite the most recent meeting between these two teams in Detroit less than two weeks ago reaching 235 points (we won with the Pistons in that game) we aren't seeing much of an adjustment to the total here. The Pelicans were flat in Detroit in that recent Sunday night contest yet still managed to score 112 points. Here, I'm expecting a much better offensive performance, but the Pistons should be dragged along for the ride as well. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 9-0 the last nine times the Pelicans have followed up an outright underdog win over the last two seasons with those games averaging a whopping 242.8 total points. The 'over' is also an incredible 15-3 when New Orleans plays at home off a win of any sort over the last two seasons with those games reaching an average of 241.8 total points. The Pistons have seen the 'under' cash in each of their last four games, however we saw a similar situation earlier this month where the 'under' had gone 3-1 in their last four games as they went to L.A. to wrap up a road trip and that game totals 264 points. Here, the Pistons will be finishing up a five-game road trip before heading home to host the Kings on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-22-21 | Wizards v. Lakers UNDER 226 | 127-124 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Monday. We're not surprisingly working with a high total in this one as the Wizards play at a faster pace than any team in the NBA while the Lakers are in bounce-back mode following Saturday night's loss to the Heat - their second loss in a row. I'm not sure we'll see a track meet, however, for a number of reasons. Note that the 'under' has gone 34-15 when the Lakers come off an upset home loss over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just north of 119 points. Keep in mind, the Lakers rank tops in the league in defensive efficiency this season. With Anthony Davis sidelined, they're going to need to lean on their defense to snap out of their mini-skid. While the Wizards won't be thought of as a defensive juggernaut anytime soon, they do rank in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency away from home this season. They're catching the Lakers at the right time as only five teams have been worse than Los Angeles in terms of offensive efficiency over their last three games. I'm not sure that the Wiz want to awake a sleeping giant in this one by baiting them into a high-scoring affair. Note that Washington's recent 6-4 SU/ATS run has coincided with a 3-7 o/u stretch. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-20-21 | Heat v. Lakers UNDER 213 | Top | 96-94 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
NBA TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Los Angeles at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game in last Saturday night's ABC showcase game but I'm confident we'll see a much different type of game unfold this week as the Heat travel to Los Angeles to take on the Lakers. We won with Miami in Thursday's win in Sacramento. This is obviously a tougher matchup, even with the Lakers missing some key cogs. Jimmy Butler admitted yesterday that his team just 'isn't very good' right now. I believe the Heat will have some trouble stringing together quality possessions in this game. Meanwhile, the Lakers are playing without Anthony Davis, obviously striking a major hit at both ends of the floor, but particularly on offense. While we can expect a better performance than we saw on Thursday, it's worth noting that game saw 117 first half points but still didn't come close to toppling the total. I'm anticipating some old school basketball on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-19-21 | Panthers v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the Red Wings most recent game - a 2-0 home loss to the Blackhawks on Wednesday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Red Wings host the Panthers. Florida has won consecutive games but has been playing with fire a little bit, giving up seven goals in those two victories and a whopping 13 goals over its last three games overall. Look for the Panthers to make a concerted effort to settle things down here on Friday and the Red Wings should oblige them. Detroit has struggled to score goals all season and a breakout doesn't figure to be anywhere in sight. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 7-0 when the Panthers come off consecutive games where both teams scored three or more goals over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.6 goals. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 7-1 when the Red Wings revenge a loss versus their opponent this season, with those games reaching an average of 4.5 total goals. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-18-21 | Kings v. Coyotes UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Kings 4-0 win over the Wild two nights ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Thursday. Note that the 'under' is 13-1 when the Kings come off a home win by three goals or more over the last three seasons with those games averaging just 4.5 total goals. When you consider only road games in that particular situation, the 'under' has gone 8-1 and those games totaled an average of only four goals. While the Coyotes have posted a 4-4-1 o/u record at home this season, games here in Glendale are averaging just 4.8 total goals. Also note that six of the last seven meetings in this series have stayed 'under' the total. We'll stick with the trends here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-17-21 | Blackhawks v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams skated to a low-scoring game two nights ago with the Blackhawks emerging victorious by a 2-1 score in overtime. I believe we're in for another low-scoring contest on Wednesday as Chicago aims for its third straight win. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 when the Blackhawks have won two of their last three games this season, with those games averaging just four total goals. The 'under' is also a perfect 6-0 when the Red Wings follow a one-goal home loss over the last two seasons, with those contests averaging just 4.1 total goals. Detroit has been one of the league's best 'under' bets this season and I look for that trend to continue tonight. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-16-21 | Wild v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. With the Kings coming off four straight 'over' results, I look for things to return to 'normal' on Tuesday night with a low-scoring contest in Los Angeles. Note that the Kings fall into a 12-1 'under' situation here where they come off a win by three goals or more. That situation has produced games averaging just 4.6 total goals over the last three seasons. Factor in the fact that the blowout win came against a division opponent and that scoring average in the next game drops to just 4.3 goals. Note that the Wild have gone 3-2 on the road this season with those games totaling an average of just 4.6 goals. This will be Minnesota's first game in two weeks due to Covid protocols. We saw what happened when the Avalanche returned to the ice following a long layoff on Sunday as they were shutout 1-0 in Las Vegas. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-14-21 | Michigan v. Wisconsin OVER 131.5 | 67-59 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Michigan and Wisconsin at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Wisconsin's last game - a double-digit win over Nebraska earlier this week. Now the value has swung the other way as I look for this one to find its way 'over' the total. Note that the 'over' is 8-1 when Wisconsin follows a double-digit win over a conference opponent over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 137.5 points. The 'over' is also 8-2 after a game in which the Badgers cover the spread this season with those contests reaching an average of 137.6 points. Michigan is averaging just shy of 80 points per game against opponents that average 71.3 ppg this season. After facing Penn State, Illinois and Nebraska over their last three games, the Badgers will obviously be facing a tougher challenge against the Michigan offense here. Meanwhile, the Wolverines haven't played since January 22nd and I can't imagine they bring peak defensive intensity in this one. Wisconsin is averaging just shy of 75 ppg at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-13-21 | Pacers v. Hawks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 125-113 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. The Pacers are coming off four consecutive 'under' results and I look for more of the same on Saturday as they head to Atlanta to face the reeling Hawks. Note that the 'under' has cashed at a 25-12 clip when Indiana comes off three or more straight 'unders' over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just over 210 points - a very low total by today's NBA standards. Also note that the 'under' is 55-37 when the Pacers follow up an ATS win over the last three seasons, with those games reaching an average of 214 points - well south of tonight's posted total. The Hawks haven't been a terrible defensive team this season. Quite the opposite, in fact. Atlanta is allowing 111.4 points per game against opponents that average 112.7 ppg. Here at home, it is giving up 110 ppg on the season. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-13-21 | North Carolina v. Virginia UNDER 129.5 | Top | 48-60 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Virginia at 6 pm et on Saturday. This game will feature a contrast in styles but I expect Virginia to dictate the pace at home as usual, leading to a relatively low-scoring game. The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in North Carolina's last seven games in the current o/u range, with those games totaling an average of just 117.3 points. Also note that Virginia has posted a 32-54 o/u mark when coming off a game as a road favorite, with those games averaging around 126 total points. While Virginia is certainly known for its defense and that has held true this season as it has given up just north of 59 points per game against opponents that average 73.5 ppg, North Carolina has also fared well defensively, giving up just over 70 ppg against opponents that average over 73 ppg. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-13-21 | 76ers v. Suns UNDER 225.5 | 111-120 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Phoenix at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the 76ers loss against the Blazers on Thursday but did cash with Portland. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the 'under' again as Philadelphia continues its road trip with an early start matchup in Phoenix. The Suns, of course, have been one of the league's better 'under' bets this season but come into this game off of consecutive 'over' results. Keep in mind, games involving the Suns have totaled an average of just over 218 points this season. This play is supported by a trend that has seen the 'under' cash at a 41-14 clip over the last five seasons when the Suns have won four or more games in a row and face a quality opponent. Also note that the 76ers are allowing just over 109 points per game when coming off a road loss over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-11-21 | UCLA v. Washington State UNDER 129.5 | 73-81 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UCLA and Washington State at 11 pm et on Thursday. This game features a matchup of two good defensive teams and I like the way the situation sets up for the 'under' with both coming off a loss. UCLA is allowing just north of 67 points per game this season against opponents that average over 72 points per game. Here, they'll face a subpar Cougars offense that puts up a shade under 68 ppg against opponents that give up almost 70 ppg. Note that the 'under' has gone 38-15 the last 53 times Washington State has lost five or six of its last seven games, as is the case here. The 'under' has also gone a solid 48-24 in games involving Washington State where the total has settled at 129.5 or less (as is the case at the time of writing). This is a low total by both teams' standards this season but I believe it's warranted as the Bruins and Cougars look to tighten things up in an important Pac-12 matchup on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-11-21 | 76ers v. Blazers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 114-118 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
NBA on TNT TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Portland at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. This is being billed as a showdown between two of the league's top scorers in Joel Embiid and Damian Lillard. I believe the game may come down to defense, however. Keep in mind, these two teams just met earlier this month with the Blazers stunning the 76ers by a 121-105 score in Philadelphia. That was an uncharacteristically sloppy performance from Philadelphia as it committed 18 turnovers and gave up 19 offensive rebounds, directly contributing to the Blazers getting off 98 field goal attempts. Note that only the Lakers have been better than the 76ers in terms of defensive efficiency away from home this season. While the Blazers rank near the bottom of the Association in that category overall they actually sit sixth over their last three games. On the flip side, the Blazers somewhat surprisingly rank in the bottom-third of the NBA in floor percentage at home. I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-11-21 | USC v. Washington OVER 145.5 | 69-54 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between USC and Washington at 10 pm et on Thursday. USC is coming off a dominating 66-48 win over UCLA but could certainly be in for a letdown against the lowly Washington Huskies on Thursday. Rather than grab the points with the Huskies, though, I'll play the 'over' as this sets up as a high-scoring affair. Note that the Trojans are averaging 75.7 points per game against opponents that give up just under 68 ppg. They should absolutely feast on a Washington defense that gives up nearly 79 ppg against opponents that allow an average just north of 73 ppg. Washington has posted a 10-2 o/u record when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. As bad as the Huskies overall record is, they have shot better than 50% from the field in four of their last eight games overall. Their only shot of making a game of this likely comes from pushing the pace. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-10-21 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska UNDER 137 | Top | 61-48 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Nebraska at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. This spot sets up ideally as the Badgers head to Nebraska off a disappointing 15-point loss at Illinois on Saturday. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 when Wisconsin plays on the road off one or more losses over the last two years, with those games averaging a total of just 116.5 points. The 'under' is also 9-1 in the Badgers last 10 games following an ATS loss with those games reaching an average of just 118.7 points. Nebraska is one of the Big Ten's worst teams but should be up for this one after getting crushed in back-to-back road games last week. Note that while the Huskers are by no means a strong defensive team, they have held their last two opponents below 40% shooting. Also note that the first meeting between these two teams this season reached just 120 points with only 40 made field goals. The Huskers are a long-term 'under' play here at home, where they've posted a 90-127 o/u record over their last 217 lined contests. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-10-21 | Cavs v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | 95-133 | Loss | -114 | 23 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Denver at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. With both of these teams desperate to get back in the win column and both ranking in the bottom-five in the league in terms of pace rating, I'm not sure the relatively high posted total is warranted in this situation. The Cavs improbably scored 113 points in Monday's loss to the Suns in Phoenix - their highest scoring output since putting up 122 points in a win over the Pistons back on January 27th. I'm not counting on a repeat performance in the high altitude of Denver on Wednesday night, however. Note that the Cavs serve as somewhat of a relic in today's NBA, averaging a league-low 9.2 three-pointers made per game this season. Denver's offensive numbers have actually been just fine this season - at least in terms of efficiency. As noted, the Nuggets haven't really been pushing the pace, ranking 28th in the league in pace rating. They desperately need to snap their three-game losing streak on Wednesday and I suspect they'll lean on the fundamentals, playing tough defense and taking care of the basketball at the offensive end of the floor. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-10-21 | Hornets v. Grizzlies UNDER 226 | Top | 114-130 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Memphis at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. On the heels of four straight losses and after giving up 128 points in Monday's loss to the Raptors, you have to think the Grizzlies will be hyper-focused on improving their defensive play in this seemingly winnable game against the Hornets on Wednesday night. Despite their recent slide, the Grizz still rank top 10 in the league in defensive rating. Unfortunately their offense has gone cold, with Ja Morant in particular really struggling to regain his shooting touch since returning from injury late last month. The Hornets have scored exactly 119 points in consecutive games, but still rank T21st in the league in field goal percentage and in the bottom half of the NBA in terms of pace rating. The last time these two teams met back on New Year's Day they combined to score just 201 points. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-10-21 | Maple Leafs v. Canadiens UNDER 6.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Montreal at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. I think bettors had come to expect high-scoring results from the Leafs every night after they drummed the Canucks to the tune of 12 goals in consecutive games last week. However, on Monday night, Toronto scored just three times, albeit in another victory over Vancouver. As the Leafs schedule toughens up I expect to see a continued reversion to the mean offensively. The last time these two rivals met was on opening night when the Leafs rallied from 3-1 and 4-3 down to secure a 5-4 overtime victory. Since then, the Canadiens have given up more than three goals in a game only once - and that was in a shootout victory over the aforementioned Canucks. Like the Leafs, the Habs had been on fire offensively but have since cooled, scoring just four goals in their last two games, against the lowly Senators no less. Sure, these two teams have the potential to light up the scoreboard, but I'll take the contrarian route and call for a lower-scoring affair than we saw in the season-opener. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-10-21 | Bruins v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
NHL TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rangers may have plenty of offensive firepower on paper but that hasn't translated to much success on the ice, noting that they rank 24th in the league in goals per game. They'll be in tough looking for a breakout performance against a Bruins squad that ranks T2nd in goals per game allowed and tops in the league in shots per game allowed. That's not to mention their second overall rank in terms of penalty kill percentage. Perhaps the Rangers saving grace here will be that the B's have been idle for nearly a week due to a couple of Covid-related postponements and the fact that they rank in virtually the middle of the pack in terms of goals per game. New York ranks in the league's top 10 in goals per game allowed and should hold its own in this Original Six matchup. Take the under (10*) |
|||||||
02-09-21 | Sharks v. Kings UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -121 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. Incredibly, 14 of the last 16 regular season meetings between these two California rivals (dating back to the start of the 2016-17 season) have topped out at five goals or less with only one of those contests surpassing the six-goal mark. Thanks to Covid-related postponements, the Sharks will be playing just their third game in February on Tuesday night. Note that they've been held to a goal or less in two of their last three games overall. Meanwhile, the Kings are coming off a tough winless two-game jaunt to Las Vegas and have now dropped four games in a row overall. Los Angeles has one of the league's most punchless offenses by most accounts. The Kings check in ranked T19th in goals per game and 23rd in shots on goal per game. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
02-09-21 | Blackhawks v. Stars OVER 5.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams last time out as the Blackhawks prevailed by a 2-1 score in overtime. Of course, that's not par for the course when it comes to the Blackhawks as they've proven to be one of the league's most vulnerable defensive teams and have certainly been involved in their share of high-scoring games. Offensively, it's only a matter of time before Chicago breaks out and shows some consistency, noting that it ranks 11th in shots on goal per game but 21st in shooting percentage. On the flip side, the Stars are second in shooting percentage and third in goals per game. Both of these teams check in top four in the league in power play percentage. It all adds up to a relatively high-scoring contest in Big D on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
02-06-21 | Canucks v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. These two teams are coming off a high-scoring affair on Thursday night but what else is new? The Canucks have seen their last three games total eight, eight and 10 goals. 10 of their 14 games this season have totaled at least seven goals. Meanwhile, the Leafs haven't been involved in a game totaling less than seven goals since January 24th against Calgary. With the Canucks desperate to snap a three-game losing streak, I'm expecting them to get baited into another high-scoring affair here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
01-31-21 | Stars v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Carolina at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a fairly 'low event' game between these two teams last night as the Hurricanes skated to a 4-1 victory. That contest featured just 37 shots on goal, including only 11 from the Blackhawks. Carolina has been a rock defensively in the early going this season while Dallas' offense has only been good in fits and starts, scoring seven goals on two occasions but a grand total of just five goals in regulation time in their other three contests. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
01-29-21 | Hawks v. Wizards OVER 232 | 116-100 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I believe the case could be made for this total to be set in the 140's. The Hawks have quietly gotten back to playing good basketball lately, going 4-2 over their last six games with their only two losses coming on the road against the Bucks and at home in overtime against the Nets. With that of course comes terrific play at the offensive end of the floor and I have no doubt they can expose a bad Wizards defense here. Washington continues to get out of this world production from Bradley Beal. While the Wiz have just three wins on the season, they're still fun to watch. Off a few blowout losses on the road, I'm confident we see them force the issue a little bit against a beatable Hawks defense on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
01-27-21 | Celtics v. Spurs OVER 224 | 106-110 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and San Antonio at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting a track meet between the Celtics and Spurs on Wednesday night. The Celtics have finally gotten healthy again and it has showed in their last two games, as they posted consecutive wins, scoring 141 and 119 points in the process. Meanwhile, the Spurs will be eager to get back on the floor after Monday's game in New Orleans was postponed. They notched a win over the Wizards on Sunday, scoring 121 points despite getting just nine points from Demar Derozan and not having a single starter score more than 16 points. The most recent matchup between these two teams came last January, with the Spurs winning a wild one by a 129-114 score. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
01-27-21 | Senators v. Canucks OVER 6.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Vancouver at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. The Canucks have been involved in high-scoring game after high-scoring game this season and there's little reason to anticipate a shift as they host the Senators for the second time in three nights on Wednesday. I am higher on the Sens than some, even after a tough start to the season. I certainly expect them to punch back here tonight after getting routed by a 7-1 score on Monday. With that being said, I'm not convinced that they can keep the Canucks surging offense at bay. Vancouver got off to a slow start this season but we've seen its best players begin to round into form in recent contests. Even with Elias Pettersson struggling a bit, there's a lot of upside right now. Let's call this one 4-3 either way. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
01-25-21 | Senators v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | 1-7 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Monday. I'll go the contrarian route and back the 'under' as the Sens and Canucks do battle in the only game on Monday's NHL board. Both teams have been involved in their share of high-scoring games out of the gate this season. Keep in mind, they've both faced very high-scoring opposition. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday as both teams look to bounce back after disappointing losses on Saturday night. Expect a tightly-contested affair. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
01-23-21 | Warriors v. Jazz UNDER 225.5 | Top | 108-127 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Utah at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Jazz are coming off a high-scoring game against the Pelicans on Thursday night but that was to be expected given the recent history between those two teams. Here, I look for Utah to control proceedings defensively and ultimately keep this one 'under' the posted total. The Warriors have been playing better lately and rank third in the league in pace rating but I'm not sure that up-tempo play will be all that fruitful against the Jazz given they're one of the league's better defensive teams (6th in defensive rating) and the fact that Golden State ranks 22nd in field goal percentage. While the Warriors aren't known for their strong defensive play, they do rank in the top half of the league in terms of defensive rating. Note that prior to Thursday's 129-point outburst against an awful Pelicans defense, the Jazz had scored 118 points or less in five consecutive games. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
01-23-21 | Flyers v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | 1-6 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams on Thursday night as the Bruins prevailed by a 5-4 score in a shootout. It's worth noting that we didn't see a goal in that game until around 26 minutes in, however. Flyers goaltender Carter Hart has struggled in the early going this season but it's only a matter of time before he settles in, and Thursday's performance was positive in the sense that he did keep the Bruins off the scoresheet for the first two periods. Hart faced a barrage of shots in that contest but I expect the Flyers to do a better job of defending in this one. Thursday's game marked the B's first real offensive breakthough of the season after three games in which they scored a grand total of three goals in regulation time. They're undoubtedly missing puck-moving defenseman Torey Krug (who is now with St. Louis) and superstar forward David Pastrnak. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
01-20-21 | Wild v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Anaheim at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a true 'low-event' game between these two teams on Monday (we won with the Ducks) and I expect more of the same in Wednesday night's rematch in Anaheim. It might only be a matter of time before we start seeing 5's on the board in games involving both the Wild and Ducks - harkening back to the 'dead puck' era of the NHL. I just don't see a breakout offensive performance coming from either squad here, with Minnesota getting ready to head home following four straight road games to open the season and Anaheim aiming to collect at least a point in a third straight game before a tough two-game set against the Avalanche. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs OVER 57 | 17-22 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Kansas City at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. While last night's anticipated shootout in Buffalo fizzled, I don't expect this game to suffer the same fate on Sunday afternoon. The Browns offense has shown the ability to hit big plays and score points in bunches, clearly evolving over the course of the season and absolutely playing their best football entering this game. I don't expect Baker Mayfield and company to back down from a shootout here. The matchup actually sets up well with Cleveland's strength running the football and Kansas City struggling to contain opposing running backs all season, allowing north of 4.5 yards per rush. Meanwhile, the Chiefs offense has mismatches all over the field with WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce in line for monster afternoons on Sunday. Cleveland's secondary has been ravaged by Covid protocols in recent weeks but should be back to virtually full strength here. I just question whether they snap back into action and contain two of the league's best playmakers in Hill and Kelce. QB Pat Mahomes will undoubtedly get his against a beatable Browns front. This total is sky high for a reason. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
01-16-21 | Ravens v. Bills OVER 50 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -102 | 55 h 22 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. I believe this has the potential to be the most entertaining - and highest-scoring - game of the Divisional Round. Baltimore got 'over the hump' so to speak with a come-from-behind win in Tennessee last Sunday. This Ravens offense has seemingly been getting better with each passing week - no longer the run-first (and run-only) offense that we saw a year ago. QB Lamar Jackson did it with his arm and his legs in last week's contest and should pick up right where he left off against what I consider to be an overrated Bills defense. Buffalo didn't get after Colts statue-esque QB Philip Rivers last Saturday and will be hard-pressed to do so against Jackson here. Of course, the Bills offense can score with the best of them and while this is a tough matchup against a stout Ravens defense, I believe QB Josh Allen and his terrific receiving corps will be up to the challenge. Last week it was the Stefon Diggs show but here against the Ravens I look for John Brown and Cole Beasley to step up as well. I don't expect to see Buffalo do too much running in this game, which certainly works in our favor, lending itself to shorter, but still productive, drives. I don't expect either side to back down in what I project as a back-and-forth shootout. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
01-16-21 | Islanders v. Rangers OVER 5.5 | 0-5 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between the Islanders and Rangers at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw just four total goals in the season-opener between these rivals on Thursday night, with a big goose egg in the third period. The Rangers will need to regroup after showing little spark in that one, outshot by a 12-3 margin in the third period. I do think we'll see some improvement from the Blueshirts offensively - there's really no other option after getting shutout after all. Keep in mind, they did have one goal called back and numerous other quality scoring chances during a strong second period in that contest. It's not as if the Islanders are a rock between the pipes with veteran Semyon Varlamov. The Isles certainly appeared to be in midseason form offensively on Thursday, with their best players living up to expectations. Look for them to find continued success here, helping this one 'over' the relatively low total (by today's NHL standards). Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama OVER 75 | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 23 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ohio State and Alabama at 8 pm et on Monday. I'll keep it simple with this play. Alabama finished number one in the nation in points per play this season and it wasn't all that close. The Crimson Tide should score at will in this game - even against an elite Ohio State defense. The Tide simply have too much NFL level talent on offense to be slowed in this game. However, we're talking about a matchup with a single-digit pointspread, and I do believe Justin Fields and the Buckeyes offense can keep pace for much of this game. Ohio State checks in ninth in the country in points per play and should be able to make some headway against an Alabama defense that is always exceptional but certainly not invincible. We're dealing with a high total in this one but it's in the 70's for a reason. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
01-10-21 | Bears v. Saints OVER 47.5 | 9-21 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and New Orleans at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. While the Saints defense should certainly be respected here, I believe the potential is there for a shootout at the Superdome on Sunday afternoon. Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky certainly exceeded expectations once he reclaimed the starting QB job in Chicago, albeit against a relatively easy schedule down the stretch. Here, Trubisky will likely be leading the Bears offense in catch-up mode for much of the day and he has just enough weapons to inflict some damage against the Saints stout defense. New Orleans has the potential to go off with RB Alvin Kamara back on the field against an overrated and undermanned Bears defense. While QB Drew Brees has been relegated to more of a 'game manager' role on many occasions at this stage of his career, I expect him to have a big day on Sunday afternoon. The Chicago defense is very beatable and Brees is likely to have WR Michael Thomas back on the field for this one. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team UNDER 44.5 | 31-23 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Washington at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. The Washington Football Team hasn't posted an 'over' result since its Thanksgiving Day game against the Cowboys and I don't see that streak ending, even against the high-scoring Bucs on Saturday night. Washington can certainly use the 'no one believes in us' mantra as a near-double-digit underdog entering this contest. There's reason for it to be somewhat confident as it boasts a fierce defensive front that should put Bucs legendary QB Tom Brady under duress all night long - or at least that's the hope. Brady's struggles when under pressure have been well-documented, particularly in recent years. Of course it generally takes two teams to topple a total and in this particular matchup, Washington is relatively hamstrung on offense. QB Alex Smith is dealing with a calf strain and while he's likely to start, it remains to be seen whether he can finish this game. Standout RB Antonio Gibson has been dealing with a turf toe injury while WR Terry McLaurin had to shake off a high ankle sprain to suit up last week. Despite playing the 'under' in this game, we actually want the Washington offense to find some success moving the football and eating some clock in this game, and I'm confident they can do that against a Bucs defense that will yields plenty of completions in the short passing game - an area of strength for this WFT offense. Having scored 23 points or less in 12 of 16 games this season, there's little reason to anticipate a sudden breakout on the scoreboard from Washington here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 42.5 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 4:40 pm et on Saturday. We won with this same play the last time these two teams met in Week 16 - a game that totaled just 29 points. While I'm not going to count on another sub-30-point result here, I do expect this third meeting of the season to say 'under' the low posted total. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson threw just one touchdown compared to two interceptions in two regular season meetings between these two NFC West rivals. There's little reason to expect a sudden breakout here, with Wilson being asked to do far less down the stretch during the regular season, as the Seahawks defense rose to prominence. Meanwhile, the Rams offense has a big question mark under center - will it be Wolford or Goff under center? Regardless which quarterback gets the start, they're likely to struggle against a Seattle defense that absolutely rounded into form at the most critical point of the season. I do believe Los Angeles can have some success moving the football and orchestrating long, clock-churning drives in this game (the return of left tackle Andrew Whitworth is key) but I'm not confident in its ability to end many of those drives with 7's on the board. Much like the Rams, the Seahawks defense has the ability to take away big plays downfield, and the presence of Wolford (or Goff for that matter) also keeps a cap on that big-play potential. These two teams know each other inside and out and their recent matchups have been un-exciting for those that love wild, high-scoring shootouts. Expect another hard-fought, low-scoring affair on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
01-09-21 | Colts v. Bills OVER 51 | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Buffalo at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm expecting plenty of offense as the Bills host a playoff game for the first time since 1996 on Saturday afternoon against the Colts. Indianapolis boasted an elite defense during the early stages of the season but the wheels came off a little bit down the stretch and now it draws a nightmarish playoff-opening matchup in Buffalo. The Bills got some good news on Thursday with underrated WR Cole Beasley returning to practice and superstar WR Stefon Diggs indicating that he's good to go for Sunday's game despite a nagging oblique injury. I fully expect Bills QB Josh Allen to let it fly against a Colts defense that has had a penchant for giving up big plays through the air. The question is whether the Colts can do enough on offense to help this one up and over the relatively high total. I believe the answer is yes. Indy RB Jonathan Taylor was positively dominant down the stretch, albeit benefiting from some positive game scripts. You can run on the Bills and I'm confident that Taylor can do enough to open things up for veteran QB Philip Rivers. Big plays will be tough to come by against this Bills secondary, but look for the Colts to grind out enough Taylor-fueled touchdown drives to help this one along. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
01-07-21 | 76ers v. Nets UNDER 225 | 109-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The 76ers were involved in a wild, high-scoring game against the defense-optional Wizards last night but I look for the scoring to settle down considerably as they head to Brooklyn to face the Durant-less Nets on Thursday night. Note that Philadelphia ranks tops in the league in defensive efficiency while Brooklyn isn't far behind sitting in eighth. It's also worth noting that the 76ers are second in the league in block percentage with the Nets once again ranking eighth. We won with the Nets in their last game as they routed the Jazz thanks in large part to a tremendous defensive start to that game. Without Kevin Durant sidelined, the Nets need to keep the emphasis on playing fundamentally-sound defensive basketball, even in the face of a tough challenge against the surging 76ers on Thursday. Meanwhile, Kyrie Irving will once again get his, but don't count on Brooklyn hanging another 130-spot on the board against what is sure to be a highly-motivated 76ers squad. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
01-03-21 | Vikings v. Lions OVER 54 | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game sets up as a shootout between the NFC North division rival Vikings and Lions in friendly conditions at Ford Field on Sunday afternoon. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins won't have RB Dalvin Cook in the backfield to relieve the pressure on Sunday afternoon but he should find plenty of success nonetheless with the Lions having no semblance of a stout defense whatsoever. Detroit doesn't get after opposing quarterbacks, doesn't subdue ground attacks and certainly does not contain opposing wide receivers. While Cook's absence isn't ideal, the Vikes still have a terrific stable of running backs to lean on. Meanwhile, Cousins should absolutely feast on a deplorable Lions secondary with both Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson in line for big days. Detroit may actually get QB Matt Stafford back on the field on Sunday afternoon and regardless of all the injuries he's dealing with, I still expect him to go all out against a very beatable Vikings defense. Detroit's offense was a complete no-show last Saturday against Tampa Bay as it was completely thrown out of rhythm by Stafford's early exit. Here, I do expect to see Detroit find the end zone on multiple occasions and aim to end another disappointing campaign on a relative high note. Take the over (10*). |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Sean Murphy ALL Sports Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-30-21 | Capitals v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
03-29-21 | Wild v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor UNDER 148.5 | 72-81 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
03-29-21 | Cavs v. Jazz UNDER 222 | 75-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
03-29-21 | Oilers v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
03-29-21 | Islanders v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC UNDER 138 | 68-82 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
03-28-21 | Panthers v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
03-28-21 | Florida State v. Michigan UNDER 143.5 | 58-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
03-28-21 | Suns v. Hornets OVER 220.5 | Top | 101-97 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
03-28-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis UNDER 135.5 | 64-77 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
03-27-21 | Mavs v. Pelicans OVER 229.5 | 103-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
03-27-21 | Pistons v. Wizards UNDER 225.5 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
03-27-21 | Oral Roberts v. Arkansas OVER 159 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 21 m | Show |
03-26-21 | Jets v. Flames OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -119 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
03-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz OVER 228 | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
03-25-21 | Boise State v. Memphis UNDER 143 | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
03-25-21 | Red Wings v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
03-25-21 | Blazers v. Heat UNDER 220 | Top | 125-122 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
03-25-21 | Hurricanes v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
03-25-21 | NC State v. Colorado State UNDER 146 | Top | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
03-24-21 | Kings v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
03-24-21 | Suns v. Magic OVER 213 | 111-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
03-23-21 | Lightning v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
03-23-21 | Red Wings v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
03-23-21 | Nuggets v. Magic OVER 216 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
03-23-21 | Devils v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 112 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
03-22-21 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 230 | Top | 113-140 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
03-22-21 | Colorado v. Florida State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
03-22-21 | Islanders v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
03-21-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 1-3 | Win | 102 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
03-21-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois UNDER 133.5 | 71-58 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
03-20-21 | UCLA v. BYU OVER 138.5 | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
03-19-21 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
03-19-21 | Drexel v. Illinois UNDER 143.5 | 49-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
03-18-21 | UCLA v. Michigan State OVER 134.5 | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
03-18-21 | Pelicans v. Blazers OVER 239.5 | 93-101 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
03-18-21 | Stars v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
03-18-21 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State UNDER 141 | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
03-16-21 | Lightning v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
03-16-21 | Cavs v. Heat UNDER 213 | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
03-15-21 | Oilers v. Flames UNDER 6 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
03-15-21 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 225 | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
03-15-21 | Capitals v. Sabres UNDER 6 | Top | 6-0 | Push | 0 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
03-15-21 | Bruins v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
03-14-21 | Hurricanes v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 106 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
03-14-21 | Ohio State v. Illinois UNDER 148.5 | 88-91 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
03-13-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State UNDER 128.5 | Top | 57-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
03-12-21 | Sharks v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 6-0 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
03-11-21 | Blackhawks v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -122 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
03-11-21 | Rangers v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
03-10-21 | Kings v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -125 | 24 h 58 m | Show | |
03-09-21 | Blackhawks v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
03-08-21 | Kings v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -128 | 25 h 36 m | Show | |
03-04-21 | Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 234.5 | Top | 112-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
03-03-21 | Blues v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
03-02-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 215.5 | Top | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
03-01-21 | Miami-FL v. Virginia OVER 124 | Top | 51-62 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
02-25-21 | Devils v. Sabres OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 109 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
02-24-21 | Pistons v. Pelicans OVER 222 | Top | 118-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
02-22-21 | Wizards v. Lakers UNDER 226 | 127-124 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
02-20-21 | Heat v. Lakers UNDER 213 | Top | 96-94 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
02-19-21 | Panthers v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
02-18-21 | Kings v. Coyotes UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
02-17-21 | Blackhawks v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
02-16-21 | Wild v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
02-14-21 | Michigan v. Wisconsin OVER 131.5 | 67-59 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
02-13-21 | Pacers v. Hawks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 125-113 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
02-13-21 | North Carolina v. Virginia UNDER 129.5 | Top | 48-60 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
02-13-21 | 76ers v. Suns UNDER 225.5 | 111-120 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
02-11-21 | UCLA v. Washington State UNDER 129.5 | 73-81 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
02-11-21 | 76ers v. Blazers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 114-118 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
02-11-21 | USC v. Washington OVER 145.5 | 69-54 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
02-10-21 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska UNDER 137 | Top | 61-48 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
02-10-21 | Cavs v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | 95-133 | Loss | -114 | 23 h 27 m | Show | |
02-10-21 | Hornets v. Grizzlies UNDER 226 | Top | 114-130 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
02-10-21 | Maple Leafs v. Canadiens UNDER 6.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
02-10-21 | Bruins v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
02-09-21 | Sharks v. Kings UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -121 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
02-09-21 | Blackhawks v. Stars OVER 5.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
02-06-21 | Canucks v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
01-31-21 | Stars v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
01-29-21 | Hawks v. Wizards OVER 232 | 116-100 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
01-27-21 | Celtics v. Spurs OVER 224 | 106-110 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
01-27-21 | Senators v. Canucks OVER 6.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
01-25-21 | Senators v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | 1-7 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
01-23-21 | Warriors v. Jazz UNDER 225.5 | Top | 108-127 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
01-23-21 | Flyers v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | 1-6 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
01-20-21 | Wild v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs OVER 57 | 17-22 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
01-16-21 | Ravens v. Bills OVER 50 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -102 | 55 h 22 m | Show |
01-16-21 | Islanders v. Rangers OVER 5.5 | 0-5 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama OVER 75 | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 23 h 0 m | Show | |
01-10-21 | Bears v. Saints OVER 47.5 | 9-21 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team UNDER 44.5 | 31-23 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 26 m | Show | |
01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 42.5 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
01-09-21 | Colts v. Bills OVER 51 | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
01-07-21 | 76ers v. Nets UNDER 225 | 109-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
01-03-21 | Vikings v. Lions OVER 54 | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show |