Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 219 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. Now that this series is tied up at two games apiece, this is obviously a critical Game 5 matchup between the Bucks and Suns in Phoenix on Saturday night. Despite the fact that we're dealing with non-conference foes, this will now be the seventh matchup between these two teams this season. As I've said many times previously, familiarity generally lends itself to tighter, lower-scoring basketball (relatively speaking) and I believe we're in for that type of affair on Saturday night in the desert. Milwaukee actually allowed Phoenix to shoot 51.3% from the field in Game 4. You would have to go all the way back to February 10th and 12th to find the last time the Bucks allowed north of 50% shooting in consecutive games this season so I expect them to bounce back at the defensive end of the floor here. Devin Booker of course went off for 42 points last time out but it's worth noting the two previous times he scored 40 points or more in these playoffs, he followed it up with 21 and 20-point efforts in his next game. The Bucks managed to score 120 and 109 points in their two home victories but that was thanks in large part to a considerable free throw disparity (they got to the free throw line 55 times in those two games), something they're not likely to experience again with the scene shifting back to Phoenix for Game 5. While the Suns offense has been prolific this season, it's been their defense that has really shone here at home, allowing just 106.6 points per game. In these playoffs they've allowed only 103.6 points per game with their games averaging a total of 212.6 points. Bucks playoff games have averaged 214.9 total points. Look for this one to stay 'under' the total on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). |
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07-17-21 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
MLB on FOX F5 Innings Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Houston and Chicago at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. |
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07-17-21 | Giants v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between San Francisco and St. Louis at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Giants busted out for seven runs in last night's rout of the Cardinals. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair on Saturday - at least in the early stages of this one. Anthony DeSclafani will take the ball for San Francisco. He labored through a couple of starts against the Cardinals last season but he's obviously been a different pitcher here in 2021. DeSclafani checks in sporting a 2.14 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 11 road starts this season, with the 'under' cashing at an 8-3-1 clip. Better still, he has posted a 1.93 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 14 nighttime outings. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Giants bullpen that has blown 11 saves on the road this season. The Cards will give left-hander Kwang-Hyun Kim the nod. He owns a 3.27 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in seven home starts this season. Kim really rounded into form prior to the All-Star break, recording a sparkling 0.50 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over his last three outings. I do think the extra couple of days off should serve as a positive, however, as he had made five consecutive starts on just four days' rest. Note that he'll be facing a Giants club that has been slightly weaker offensively on the road and considerably so against southpaw pitchers this season. They certainly didn't fare well against Kim earlier this month as they were shut out over seven innings. With Kim averaging just 4 2/3 innings per start at home, we'll likely see plenty from the Cardinals bullpen here, which we'll look to avoid by playing the first five innings only as St. Louis' relief corps has posted a 4.06 ERA and 1.36 WHIP at home this season. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
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07-16-21 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday. While playing 'overs' can be tricky coming out of the All-Star break with rested starting pitchers and bullpens, I see this as an ideal spot to call for a relatively high-scoring affair. Chris Flexen will take ball for the Mariners. While he's posted impressive numbers overall this season, that's been due in large part to the fact that he's made 10 of his 16 starts at home. Things haven't gone nearly as smooth on the road, where he owns a 6.97 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 31 innings of work. Here, the Angels will be getting their second look at Flexen in less than a week after he shut them down in Seattle on July 10th. In their lone previous game against Flexen, the Angels had more success, scoring three earned runs and chasing him from the game after just four innings in late April. With Flexen averaging just over five innings per start on the road this season we'll likely see plenty of the Mariners bullpen in this one. Like Flexen, the Mariners relief corps has also been much better at home than on the road, where it has recorded a collective 5.12 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with 12 converted saves and 10 blown this season. Los Angeles will counter with left-hander Andrew Heaney. He checks in with a 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in eight home starts this season with the 'over' cashing at a 6-1-1 clip. The Mariners didn't do much against him in three tries last season but seemed to figure him out in his lone outing against them this year, scoring four earned runs including three home runs in only 3 1/3 innings. Note that Seattle has been a slightly better offensive club against left-handers and on the road this season. Like Flexen, Heaney doesn't tend to work deep into games, averaging just over five innings per start. While the Angels bullpen was better in the weeks leading up to the All-Star break, it still owns a less than impressive 4.67 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with 11 converted saves and eight blown here at home this season. Worse still, that ERA rises to 5.21 to go along with a 1.45 WHIP against division opponents. Take the over (10*). |
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07-16-21 | Costa Rica v. Suriname UNDER 3 | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Suriname and Costa Rica at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. Suriname had its chances to score against Jamaica in its Gold Cup opener but ultimately came up empty in a 2-0 defeat. Here, I believe those chances will be few and far between against an experienced Costa Rica side that is coming off a 3-1 victory over Guadeloupe. Costa Rica let its guard down during injury time before the end of the first half, giving up its lone goal of the match. In general it did do a nice job of neutralizing Guadeloupe's strength, which certainly lies up front with capable attackers in Mirval, Phaeton and Ramothe. Here, Costa Rica will face a tougher defensive side than it saw in its tournament opener. It should also find it a little more difficult to dominate the possession as it did last time out. Suriname actually held a 53% to 47% possession edge against Jamaica. I don't expect it to find the same level of success in that regard here, but it will get its share of the ball against the Costa Ricans - I'm just not sure it will lead to anything fruitful on the attack. The situation lends itself to the 'under' in my opinion. Credit Costa Rica for finding the back of the net three times on Monday. However, given the fact that Guadeloupe received a red card relatively early in the second half, the damage probably should have been worse had Costa Rica been in top form. Look for it to continue to search for that form on Thursday as it likely controls this match most of the way, but fails to do enough to eclipse this generous total. Take the under (9*). |
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07-16-21 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'm expecting a well-pitched game in Chicago on Friday night as the Astros send Lance McCullers Jr. to the hill against Dylan Cease. McCullers checks in sporting a 2.94 ERA 1.43 WHIP in six road starts this season. The White Sox have never really been able to figure him out, seeing him five times previously and managing to score just eight earned runs in 30 1/3 innings. Note that Chicago has been slightly weaker offensively both at home and against right-handed pitching this season. Behind McCullers is a solid Astros bullpen that has recorded a collective 3.99 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the road this season. Here, they'll have all hands on deck coming out of the break and it's worth noting they've posted a stellar 2.84 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over their last seven games with three saves converted and only one blown. Dylan Cease got hit hard by the Astros earlier this season but that was in Houston. He's been a completely different pitcher at home compared to on the road this season, posting a 1.81 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in eight starts. While he will be pitching on just four days' rest here, that hasn't been a problem this season - at least at home, where he has done so on three previous occasions, allowing just one earned run over 18 2/3 innings of work. With Cease averaging right around 5 2/3 innings per start at home we're likely going to need a significant contribution from the White Sox bullpen. That's fine as they've posted a collective 4.03 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 14 saves converted and eight blown here at home this season and like the Astros have been better lately, recording a 2.01 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over their last seven contests. Take the under (8*). |
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07-14-21 | El Salvador v. Trinidad & Tobago UNDER 2 | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 2.25 goals between El Salvador and Trinidad and Tobago at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. NOTE: I would recommend playing this total at 2.25 or 2.5 if that becomes available (totals have generally been rising throughout the day in this tournament), giving us the opportunity to still get a return should the final score land on two goals. El Salvador only managed to break through with two goals in the final stages of its opening match against lowly Guatemala - a team that only got in this tournament thanks to Curacao's Covid issues, which forced it to withdraw. While El Salvador will likely hold the majority of the possession once again in this match, the question remains whether it can break through, noting that it was previously held scoreless in a 1-0 loss to Qatar (which gave up three goals against Panama last night) in a pre-tournament friendly match. Trinidad and Tobago will certainly be looking to earn at least another point here after a stunning 0-0 draw against mighty Mexico in its tournament opener. There's little reason to expect it to switch up its gameplan and go on the attack in this one as it simply doesn't have the offensive firepower to keep pace in that type of affair. Trinidad and Tobago has scored just two goals in three matches going back to the start of June, and those two tallies came against Saint Kitts and Nevis - a team that holds a 135th FIFA ranking. With three points already under its belt, El Salvador is in the driver's seat in the group and ahead of a tough match against Mexico will certainly be content to earn at least a point in this match. Unlike what we saw in last night's two matches, I expect this to be a cagey, low-scoring contest, as the relatively low total implies. Take the under 2.25 goals (9*). |
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07-13-21 | Grenada v. Honduras UNDER 3 | 0-4 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 3.0 goals between Honduras and Grenada at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Grenada checks in as decided underdogs in its group here at the Gold Cup. I have a hard time envisioning it breaking down an experienced and talented Honduras back-end but on the flip side, Honduras isn't the side it once was and I'm not convinced that a blowout is imminent in this group stage opener. Honduras is undergoing a 'rebuild' of sorts right now, having been on the decline since missing out on the 2018 World Cup. You would have to go back to 2019 to find the last time it won a match inside 90 minutes, which is obviously a concern as it finds itself in a tough group that also includes CONCACAF outsider Qatar and Panama. Gaining three points from this match is obviously paramount but I believe a 1-0 or 2-0 result is the most likely outcome. Grenada won't be able to lean on a great deal of experience, with the majority of its attackers under the age of 25. That's what makes the prospect of finding a goal so difficult here as it goes up against a stout Honduras defense that just held Mexico without a shot on target last time out. One of the strengths of this Grenada squad is in its last line of defense as goalkeeper Jason Belfon is expected to make his 44th appearance. I would expect Grenada to play a somewhat conservative style here as it looks to contain Honduras and perhaps steal a point to open this tournament. The fact that Honduras is expected to give playing time to striker Jerry Bengston is telling when you consider that he hasn't featured in this tournament in a decade. Short on offensive firepower, I'm not convinced it will be looking to attack should it build a lead as expected. Take the under (9*). |
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07-13-21 | Panama v. Qatar OVER 2 | 3-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.0 goals between Qatar and Panama at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I'm fairly high on this Qatar side entering the Gold Cup as it makes its first tournament appearance by way of an invite in advance of hosting next year's World Cup. The 'outsiders' in this tournament are favored to advance from their group and rightfully so, with a cohesive squad featuring many players that play and train together at the club level in their home country. Qatar is brimming with talent up front, led by dynamic striker Akram Afif. Don't be fooled by the fact it was held to just a single goal against El Salvador in a friendly match earlier this month - Qatar was penalized with a red card in the first 20 minutes in that contest, forcing it to play back on its heels the rest of the way. While Qatar is on a run of clean sheets right now, it has also been facing inferior squads in World Cup Qualifying - the likes of Oman, India and Bangladesh. The fact that it was able to post a shutout despite being a man down most of the way against El Salvador was impressive but here it will go up against a Panama side that has lost only one group stage fixture in this tournament going all the way back to 2011. Panama may not be the same team it was when it reached the World Cup in 2018 but it still should pose a challenge here. Knowing that it is unlikely to keep Qatar off the scoresheet entirely, its focus should be on generating scoring opportunities after being shut out in each of its last two matches. Panama didn't start veteran striker Gabriel Torres in either of those two contests but he is expected to feature here. Prior to its last two matches, Panama had scored at least a goal in five consecutive contests in World Cup Qualifying. That included a 13-0 drubbing of Anguilla back in early June. While we won't see an offensive explosion from the Panamanians against a well-organized Qatar side here, I do expect it to do enough to help this one 'over' the relatively low total. Take the over (9*). |
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07-11-21 | Lynx v. Sparks OVER 158 | 86-61 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the Lynx most recent game - a stunning 10-point win in Las Vegas on Friday night. Minnesota is playing as well offensively as any team in the league right now and I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as it heads to Los Angeles to wrap up pre-Olympic play on Sunday night. While the Lynx scored just 77 points in that win over the Aces, that had more to do with game flow than anything else. After building a 15-point lead at the end of the first quarter, and with the Aces making Liz Cambage a late scratch, they didn't have to pour it on for four quarters and essentially pumped the brakes in the second half. Note that the last two times the Lynx have been held under 80 points they've put up 86 and 87 points in their next game with the 'over' going a perfect 2-0. The Sparks continue to struggle without a number of key players but should put forth a strong effort here as they look to snap a five-game skid prior to the Olympic break. Keep in mind, their last four games have come against the Aces and Storm. They got bogged down offensively in those contests but should bounce back here. While the Lynx are a quality defensive team, they do allow just shy of 80 points per game on the road this season and could suffer a bit of a letdown here after limiting the Aces to 35.8% shooting last time out. Having already won the first meeting in this series by 16 points this season it would be easy for them to overlook the Sparks here with the Olympic break on deck. Los Angeles does average nearly two points above its season scoring average at home this season. Look for a higher-scoring contest than most are expecting here. Take the over (10*). |
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07-11-21 | England v. Italy UNDER 2 | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' 1.0 goal between Italy and England at 3 pm et on Sunday. NOTE: I'm recommending playing the alternate first half total of 1.0 goal if your book offers such an option on Sunday. Consider this a 9* play if 'under' 0.75 goals in the first half is your only option. We won with the Spain-Italy full game 'under' and the England-Denmark first half 'over' in the semi-final round and I believe we're well-positioned to cash this first half total in Sunday's epic Final between Italy and England as well. England had its hand forced early on against Denmark in the semis. It was put back on its heels after Denmark managed to break through with an early free kick goal just outside the penalty box and the match essentially changed from there. The Three Lions were able to answer inside the first 45 minutes but that was it for scoring until extra time. Here, I'm anticipating another cagey affair between England and Italy - with the latter proving to be perhaps the most impressive outfit in this entire tournament. We've seen the Italians look dominant at both ends of the pitch. I do expect to see a bit of a 'feeling out process' early in this showdown on Sunday, however. The Italians perhaps haven't looked quite as decisive on the attack in recent matches, which has a lot to do with the level of competition it has faced. England has suddenly looked extremely dangerous offensively following a bit of a slow start to the tournament. With that being said, this is clearly its toughest test of the tournament to date. It's not going to be easy to break down a stout Italian defense. The argument can certainly be made that both teams are here thanks to their defensive prowess and form more than anything else. I just don't envision any early breakthroughs. A 0-0 halftime result seems most likely and while we're being asked to pay a considerable tariff to play the 'under' at a full goal, I believe the price is warranted. Take the first half under (10*). |
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07-11-21 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between New York and Houston at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. |
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07-10-21 | Royals v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Kansas City and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. |
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07-10-21 | Phillies v. Red Sox OVER 11 | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Boston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. This is obviously a very high posted total for a game not played at Coors Field but I believe it's warranted. Matt Moore gets the start for the Phillies. He's actually been solid in two starts since returning to the rotation in late June. Here, he'll be pitching on four days' rest for the first time this season, however. He'll also be facing a Red Sox club that has averaged seven runs per game in their last six games against left-handed starters. Behind Moore is a Phillies bullpen that has posted a collective 5.17 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in day games this season blowing eight saves while converting only four. Martin Perez will counter for Boston. He's having a fine season but is in a bit of a tough spot today, making his third consecutive start on four days' rest. It's also worth noting that he has posted an inflated 5.66 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in 10 home starts. We've seen him labor through his last three outings, allowing 21 hits in 14 1/3 innings of work. He's also topped out at three strikeouts in his last six starts. The Red Sox bullpen has been solid this season but if there's a spot they're vulnerable it's in day games as they've recorded a collective 4.28 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Take the over (10*). |
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07-09-21 | Lynx v. Aces UNDER 174 | 77-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Las Vegas at 10:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the Lynx last game on Wednesday night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they being a brief two-game road trip prior to the extended Olympic break. The Lynx are one of the WNBA's better defensive teams, even on the road where they allow just 81.2 points per game (that's actually 0.7 points below their season average) on 43.0% shooting. They're a fairly well-rested team right now as this will be just their third game this month. While Las Vegas is known for its explosive offense, it can play some defense as well, checking in allowing 81.4 points per game on 39.5% shooting here at home this season. With that being said, the 'over' has gone 7-3 in their previous 10 home games which affords us the opportunity to take the contrarian route at a generous number here. Note that the Aces have put up 90 points or more in consecutive games (even though they needed overtime to get there last time out). They've scored 90+ points in back-to-back games on five previous occasions this season with the 'under' going 4-1 in their next game with an average total points scored of just 148.8 points. Minnesota has scored 82 points or more in five straight games but I'm not sure that's a sustainable trend. Former Ace Kayla McBride has been red hot over the last few games but they'll need some help if Minnesota is to continue putting up big offensive numbers. The Lynx are short on scoring depth with little production off the bench on most nights. I don't believe they'll be interested in a track meet here. Take the under (10*). |
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07-09-21 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 9 | 2-4 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We saw a relatively low-scoring contest to open this series last night as the Twins rallied for a 5-3 victory. While Minnesota 'should' pick up a second straight win over the Tigers here, I'm more confident playing the 'over'. Matt Manning gets another start in the Tigers rotation but it's certainly not due to his fine pitching. Quite the contrary, he has been awful in four big league starts this season, allowing 15 earned runs on 25 hits while striking out only six in 17 innings of work. In two road starts Manning has posted an 11.42 ERA and 1.73 WHIP with those two games totaling 12 and 18 runs. Here, he'll be starting on four days' rest for the second time this season after getting tagged for nine earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings in his first opportunity at Cleveland on June 28th. With Manning averaging just 4 1/3 innings per start we should see plenty of the Tigers bullpen in this one as well. They've posted a collective 5.99 ERA and 1.57 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). Also note that Detroit hasn't had an off day in over a week. Kenta Maeda will get the call for Minnesota. He rebounded to deliver one of his best starts of the season in Kansas City last time out. That doesn't change the fact that he's struggled for the most part this season. Even here at home while he has managed to record a respectable 3.29 ERA, his WHIP stands at 1.61. Like Manning, Maeda will be starting on four days' rest - doing so for just the third time since the start of last season. In those two previous starts on short rest, Maeda allowed eight runs, six of them earned, in 10 innings of work with the two games totaling 11 and 13 runs. While Maeda has had previous success against Detroit, they'll be seeing him for the fifth time in the last 11 months. Note that the Tigers are generally good for at least a few runs off of Maeda in six or so innings (he's given up 15 earned runs in 30 previous innings pitched against them) and that just might be all we need from them here to help this one 'over' the total. Behind Maeda is a Twins bullpen that hasn't had an off day since June 28th and has been generally awful at home this season, recording a collective 4.96 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Worse still, they've posted a 5.70 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in night games. Take the over (10*). |
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07-09-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | 5-10 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between St. Louis and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Friday. |
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07-08-21 | Nationals v. Padres UNDER 7 | 8-9 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Washington and San Diego at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night. In fact, each of the first three games in this series have been high-scoring. I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday, however, at least in the early stages of this contest. Max Scherzer will take the ball for Washington. He'll be pitching on a full five days' rest for the first time since missing a turn in the rotation in mid-June. Note that short rest has fazed him as he has allowed just three earned runs in 17 innings over his last three trips to the hill. Scherzer checks in sporting a 2.30 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in eight road starts this season. The Padres had some success against Mad Max early in his career but we're talking over a decade ago. In his last six starts against them he's locked them up, allowing only six earned runs in 42 2/3 innings. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid a Nationals bullpen that has struggled on the road this season, posting a collective 4.49 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. The Padres will counter with their ace Yu Darvish. All he's done this season is record a sparkling 2.12 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 11 home starts. He'll be pitching on just four days' rest but that's not a big concern as he hasn't gone beyond the sixth inning in any of his last four starts and hasn't pitched on short rest since June 3rd. Darvish has no recent history against the Nationals, which should give him an advantage here. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 220 | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Suns in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Thursday. We saw some nerves early on in Game 1 but once the two teams settled down the offenses started flowing and we didn't see a great deal of tough defensive play. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 2. Generally, I like to play Bucks 'overs' when they come off a win, and 'unders' when they follow a loss. The trends bear it out as Milwaukee has posted an 11-20 o/u record when coming off a loss this season. Better still, the 'under' has gone 12-3 when the Bucks come off three consecutive 'over' results this season, as is the case here. Keep in mind, the 'under' is still 10-7-1 in all Bucks playoff games with an average total of just 214.1 points scored. The 'under' owns a slight 9-8 edge in Suns playoff games with those contests totaling an average of only 211.5 points. While Phoenix won Game 1 there are still adjustments for it to make here after Milwaukee shot 44% from beyond the arc, knocking down 16 three-pointers in the series-opener. Meanwhile, we should see some regression from the Suns in a couple of key areas here after Chris Paul poured in 32 points on 12-of-19 shooting and DeAndre Ayton put up 22 points on 8-of-10 shooting on Tuesday night. Note that it was only the fourth time in these playoffs that CP3 scored more than 22 points while Ayton averages just 14.4 points per game on 62.6% shooting this season. The Bucks obviously need to make some adjustments here and I'm confident they will noting that they allow just 104.5 points per game on 44.3% shooting in these playoffs. Take the under (10*). |
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07-07-21 | Wings v. Lynx UNDER 169.5 | Top | 79-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
WNBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off consecutive peak offensive performances but I'll go the contrarian route and back the 'under' in this one as they match up in Minnesota on Wednesday night. Dallas has shot 50% or better in consecutive games for the first time this season. Keep in mind, prior to those two performances the Wings had shot 42.3% or worse in consecutive contests. They check in shooting just 43.4% on the road this season. The Wings have seen the 'over' cash in three straight games - their longest 'over' streak of the season. In fact, only once this season have they seen the 'over' cash in three out of four games and on that occasion, their next contest totaled just 135 points. Minnesota has shot better than 50% from the field in three of its last four games but it's interesting to note that all three of those performances came on the road. Here at home the Lynx are shooting just north of 45% on the season. The 'over' has cashed in four of the Lynx last five games overall. That situation has come up twice previously this season and on both of those occasions their next game totaled exactly 158 points with the 'under' going 2-0. This is the highest total we've seen in three meetings between these two teams this season. Look for it to prove to be too high. Take the under (10*). |
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07-07-21 | Denmark v. England OVER 2 | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Euro First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' 0.5 goals between England and Denmark at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Yesterday's semi-final match between Italy and Spain saw a goalless first half as both teams' ball possession prowess was on full display. I'm anticipating a different type of contest on Wednesday - at least early on - as England and Denmark battle to decide which squad faces the Italians in the Euro 2020 Final. Unlike Italy and Spain, these two teams are unlikely to be content simply possessing the ball. I think both know that they're going to need to find the back of the net once, but more likely twice to secure victory here. England has recorded a clean sheet in each of its first five Euro matches. It's worth noting that no side has ever done so in six consecutive matches in World Cup/Euro history. The Three Lions will undoubtedly have their hands full trying to contain a Denmark side that has gotten stronger with each passing match and has managed to score at least a goal in 11 of its last 12 matches overall (the only shutout came against Finland under terrible circumstances with Christian Eriksen's on-field cardiac arrest in the Danes tournament opener). I like the confidence the English have shown as they've gone on the attack against Germany and Ukraine with the onset of the knockout portion of the tournament. Gareth Southgate has a wealth of options at his disposal, and most involve players that look to push forward and apply pressure on opposing defenses. Denmark has certainly found its form offensively with Kasper Dolberg supplanting Yussuf Poulson and tallying three goals in the last two matches. The Danes have managed to reach the target on 25 of 43 shot attempts over their last three matches after doing so on just 11 of 43 attempts in their first two contests. Jordan Pickford is an excellent keeper on the English side but he hasn't been all that busy in this tournament, recording just nine saves in five matches. Denmark has conceded at least a goal in four of its five tournament matches to date but has yet to concede a first half goal. I'm not sure that's a sustainable trend, however, and again I think we see a different type of affair compared to what we watched between two ball-possession minded squads in Italy and Spain yesterday. Getting out on the front foot will be paramount for both England and Denmark in this match and I believe an early breakthrough will be in the cards. If your book offers alternate first half totals I would suggest playing this one at a slightly steeper price at 0.5 rather than the standard 0.75 being offered, ensuring the win should the first 45 minutes see a single goal. Virtually all books offer the opportunity to play alternate first half totals by way of live betting as soon as the match kicks off. Take the first half over (10*). |
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07-06-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the first five innings 'under' in the D'Backs most recent game - a 5-2 loss to the Giants on Sunday. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as they open a series at home against the Rockies. Jon Gray will make his third start for the Rockies since returning from a stint on the I.L. He's held up well in his last two outings but I expect him to struggle here. Note that Gray has posted a 5.70 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in five road starts this season with the 'over' cashing in four of those games. The D'Backs will be getting their fourth look at Gray already this season and sixth going back to last August. They've had some success against him, particularly here at home, where they most recent chased him after scoring five runs, four of them earned, over six innings in a 7-2 victory on April 30th. With Gray averaging less than five innings per start on the road this season we'll likely see plenty of the Rockies awful bullpen which owns a 5.50 ERA and 1.58 WHIP on the road this season. Merrill Kelly will counter for Arizona. He has been pitching reasonably well of late but finds himself in a bit of a tough spot here, pitching on four days' rest for a fifth straight turn in the rotation. Kelly's overall numbers are fine this season but there's no question, the Rockies have had his number, already facing him twice this year and scoring eight earned runs on 16 hits in just 11 2/3 innings. Kelly's last four starts against Colorado have resulted in 9, 14, 10 and 12 total runs. Behind Kelly is a D'Backs bullpen that has recorded a collective 5.06 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with just four saves converted compared to five blown here at home this season. Worse still, against division opponents, the Arizona 'pen has posted a 6.35 ERA and 1.70 WHIP with three saves converted and eight blown. Take the over (10*). |
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07-06-21 | A's v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 6-9 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair as the A's and Astros open their series in Houston on Tuesday night. Chris Bassitt will take the ball for the A's. If you've followed my plays regularly you know that I've been high on Bassitt all season, even during a tough stretch to open the campaign. He brings excellent form into this start having posted a 1.35 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last three outings. Here, he'll be making his second straight start on five days' rest. Bassitt has certainly held his own on the road, where he has posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.14 WHIP this season, with the 'under' cashing in five of his nine starts. While he hasn't been great in his career against the Astros, given his current form I think Bassitt can overcome his previous struggles against them here. The A's bullpen got a much-needed off day yesterday and checks in sporting a collective 3.75 ERA and 1.31 WHIP on the road this season. Interestingly, they've converted 15 saves while blowing just five in night games this season. Left-hander Framber Valdez will counter for Houston. He's currently one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball. In three home starts he has recorded a sparkling 2.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Better still, in five nighttime starts he has posted a 1.95 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. The A's got two looks at Valdez last season and never figured him out, managing just three earned runs in 14 innings. Like the A's, the Astros bullpen also enjoyed an off day on Monday. The Houston relief corps has been at their best against division opponents this season, posting a collective 3.69 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 126 2/3 innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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07-06-21 | Spain v. Italy UNDER 2.25 | 1-1 | Win | 50 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Italy and Spain at 3 pm et on Tuesday. NOTE: I'm recommending a play on the 'under' at 2.5 goals rather than the standard 2.25 being offered at most books. This of course ensures we're paid out should the game land on two goals (excluding extra time). We've had a pretty good read on Italy in this tournament, cashing three tickets along the way. After getting bogged down against Austria in the knockout round we saw the Azzurri come up big in a 2-1 victory over number one ranked Belgium. Here, I think we'll see Italy have a difficult time breaking down a very well-organized Spain squad, however. That goes both ways though. Italy hadn't conceded a goal in this tournament (and well before that as well) before giving one up in extra time against Austria. On Saturday, the only goal it conceded against Belgium came by way of a penalty. Spain is obviously loaded with talent all over the pitch and particularly up front but it still couldn't break the deadlock against Switzerland in the quarters despite the Swiss going down a man due to a red card in the 77th minute. Switzerland managed to keep a clean sheet from there, including 30 minutes of extra time before falling in a penalty shootout. When you get to this late stage of the tournament, goals can come at a premium and that's precisely what I expect to see on Tuesday. These are two of the best ball possession teams in the field and a 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1 result after 90 minutes seems the most likely outcome. Take the under (10*). |
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07-05-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Stanley Cup Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Monday. We've alternated playing the 'over' and 'under' in the first three games in this series, going a perfect 3-0 along the way. I'll stick with that approach here in Game 4 as I anticipate a different type of affair than we saw in Saturday's wide-open 6-3 Lightning victory. Saturday's game essentially turned on two Tampa Bay goals in the opening four minutes. Were it not for the Lightning building a considerable lead it's unlikely they would have given up three goals, noting that they had allowed a grand total of just two goals through the first two games of the series. The Lightning check in allowing just 2.0 goals per game in the playoffs while the Canadiens have allowed 2.5. Note that the 'under' has gone 9-2 with the Lightning playing on the road after a game where nine or more goals were scored over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average of just 4.4 total goals. We've also seen the 'under' cash at an 8-1 clip with the Lightning looking to close out a series on the road over the last two seasons with an average total of just 4.0 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 9-2 with the Canadiens seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored five or more goals this season. That situation has produced an average total of 5.0 goals. The Lightning have certainly looked unstoppable offensively in this series but it's not as if that's been the case from start to finish in these playoffs. They've actually scored three goals or less in 10 of their last 15 games with the 'under' going 8-5-2 over that stretch (10-5-2 over their last 17 games). I was waiting this one out hoping the total might finally move off of 5.0 to 5.5 but it doesn't look like that's going to happen, rightfully so (although that's certainly an option as an alternate total at most books, albeit at a steeper price). Take the under (10*). |
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07-05-21 | Reds v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -118 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'over' in the Royals 6-2 loss to the Twins yesterday as the scoring simply started too late. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday night as the Royals open an Interleague series against the Reds. Vladimir Gutierrez will get the call for Cincinnati. He owns a 4.77 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in five nighttime starts this season. Here, he'll be making his second straight start on four days' rest. Considering he has posted an ugly ERA north of eight to go along with an 1.89 WHIP over his last three outings there's reason for concern as he prepares to face the Royals here. Behind Gutierrez is a Reds bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 4.77 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road this season. Also note that the Reds haven't had an off day since June 23rd. Mike Minor will counter for Kansas City. He'll inexplicably be making his ninth consecutive start on four days' rest. Note that Minor has recorded a 5.57 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in nine home starts this season. Over his last three trips to the hill he has posted an 8.64 ERA and 1.92 WHIP. The Royals bullpen has posted a collective 4.39 ERA and 1.39 WHIP at night this season, converting 10 saves to go along with seven blown. Take the over (10*). |
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07-05-21 | Dodgers v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Monday. The Marlins are coming off a wild, high-scoring extra innings loss in Atlanta yesterday but I look for a different story to unfold on Monday. Walker Buehler will get the start for the Dodgers in Monday's series opener. He has struggled in two previous starts here in Miami but those came long enough ago that I'm willing to take a flyer here (his last start in Miami came in August of 2019). He didn't give up a single earned run in two other previous outings against the Marlins in Los Angeles. Back to this season though, Buehler has been outstanding on the road, posting a 2.06 ERA and 0.79 WHIP, averaging just shy of 6 2/3 innings per start. He's coming off one of his better outings of the season and will be pitching on five days' rest for the first time since June 19th when he gave up just two earned runs over 7 1/3 innings in Arizona. The Dodgers bullpen hasn't been as dominant on the road as it has been at home but has certainly pitched well so far on this trip, entering yesterday's game sporting a collective ERA of 0.40 and a 0.94 WHIP over their last seven contests. L.A.'s relief corps checks in with a 3.01 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in night games this season. Trevor Rogers will counter for Miami. He's been terrific at home this season, recording a 2.45 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Better still, he has posted a 2.20 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 nighttime starts this season. I also like the fact that Rogers will be making his third straight start on at least five days' rest. The Miami bullpen has posted a collective 2.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home this season with eight converted saves and four blown. Take the under (10*). |
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07-04-21 | Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between San Francisco and Arizona at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. |
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07-04-21 | Dream v. Aces OVER 171.5 | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Las Vegas at 6 pm et on Sunday. The Aces are coming off an uncharacteristically-poor offensive performance against Los Angeles two nights ago as they scored just 66 points on 37.7% shooting. I don't expect it to turn into a slump, however, as the Aces return home where they average an impressive 94.9 points per game on 49.5% shooting this season. Atlanta meanwhile nearly staged a massive upset on the road against Seattle last time out, dropping a narrow 91-88 decision. The Dream have actually been a better offensive team on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 3.4 points per game above their season average. The problem is, they've allowed just shy of 89 points per contest on 46.7% shooting away from home. I have the Aces approaching the 100-point mark in this one which means we shouldn't need a peak performance from the Dream offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (9*). |
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07-04-21 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Rockies prevailed by a 3-2 score. Here, I look for a different story to unfold. Carlos Martinez will take the ball for the Cardinals. He has of course struggled at the best of times this season and here will be making his third straight start on just four days' rest. Martinez owns a 7.08 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the road this season. The Rockies have certainly had his number over the years, most recently scoring seven earned runs in 9 2/3 innings against him in two starts going back to the 2018 season. With Martinez averaging just 5.1 innings per start on the road this season we should see plenty of the Cardinals bullpen here. While St. Louis' relief corps hasn't been awful, it has posted a less than impressive 4.33 ERA and 1.44 WHIP with eight saves converted and five blown on the road this season. My concern is that St. Louis hasn't had an off day since June 21st so we're talking about an overworked 'pen. German Marquez will start on four days' rest for the Rockies after tossing a complete game shutout against the Pirates last time out. He's actually pitched well overall this season but hasn't been at his best in daytime starts, posting a 5.22 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in eight outings. In those eight starts he has lasted just 5.2 innings on average. That opens the door for an awful Rockies bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.43 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with just nine saves converted compared to 10 blown here at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-04-21 | Twins v. Royals OVER 10 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. This is an absolute smash spot for the Twins offense but I also expect the Royals to do their part to help this one 'over' the total. Kenta Maeda will take the ball for Minnesota. He just can't seem to get it right this season having posted a 6.49 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in nine road starts with the 'over' cashing in six of those games. Here, he'll be starting on four days' rest for just the second time this season. The last time he did, he allowed five runs, three of them earned, and lasted just four innings in a 7-6 loss to the A's on May 16th. Maeda averages less than five innings per start so we'll likely see plenty of the Twins bullpen which owns a 4.94 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the road this season. Brad Keller will counter for Kansas City. We won with the first five innings 'over' in his most recent start in Boston. He'll be pitching on just four days' rest, inexplicably for the eight consecutive outing on Sunday afternoon. Things haven't been going well for Keller as he has posted a 7.97 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in eight home starts with the 'over' cashing in five of those games. In nine daytime starts that WHIP rises to 1.97. The Twins will be getting their fourth look at Keller this season having already scored seven earned runs off of him in 14 1/3 innings. Keller averages just 4.4 innings per start here at home so an overworked Royals bullpen is likely to see plenty of action again today. Note that Kansas City hasn't had an off day since June 21st. The Royals 'pen owns a collective 4.16 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with just seven saves converted compared to eight blown against division opponents this season (entering yesterday's action). Take the over (10*). |
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07-04-21 | Brewers v. Pirates UNDER 8 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Brewers are absolutely rolling right now, riding an 11-game winning streak after yesterday's 11-2 victory. This isn't an ideal spot on getaway day against a left-handed starter, noting that they average just 3.6 runs per game against southpaw starters this season. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair. Freddy Peralta will take the ball for Milwaukee. He has posted a 2.86 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in seven road starts this season. Better still, he owns a 2.63 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in seven daytime starts. Behind Peralta is a solid Brewers bullpen that has posted a collective 3.42 ERA and 1.29 WHIP on the road this season. Tyler Anderson will counter for Pittsburgh. He certainly hasn't been great this season but has pitched better at home, where he has recorded a 3.83 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, averaging around 5 2/3 innings per start here at PNC Park. Behind Anderson is a Pirates bullpen that has posted a 3.40 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with five saves converted and only two blown at home this season. Take the under (9*). |
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07-03-21 | Lynx v. Mercury UNDER 163 | 99-68 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Saturday. As this is a travel day, I'll keep my analysis relatively short for this play. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these same two teams on Wednesday and I don't expect to see a much different result in Saturday's rematch. Minnesota got a big performance from Kayla McBride in that game but those type of shooting efforts have been few and far between from her since joining the Lynx in the offseason. Phoenix is a quality defensive team and after allowing Minnesota to shoot 51% from the field last time out I expect it to make the necessary adjustments here. Diana Taurasi's return has given the Mercury a bit of a boost offensively but this is a team that still hasn't really lived up to expectations this season. They were held to 46% shooting against the Lynx on Wednesday, including just 32 points in the second half. I'm not anticipating a great deal of improvement offensively as familiarity tends to lend itself to lower-scoring basketball more often than not. Take the under (10*). |
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07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 216.5 | 118-107 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Atlanta at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. These two teams were involved in a high-scoring Game 5 on Thursday night, ending a streak of three straight 'under' results in the series. I'm not anticipating another track meet here, however, as the Hawks return home to face elimination on Saturday night. We can expect Atlanta to make the necessary adjustments after a poor defensive showing on Thursday, as it allowed Milwaukee to shoot better than 50% from the field. Giannis isn't expected back for the Bucks and while Trae Young may or may not be able to return for the Hawks, I like this play regardless. Note that the 'under' has gone 29-16 with the Bucks playing on the road off an 'over' result over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the 'under' has cashed at a 17-7 clip with the Hawks playing the role of home favorite this season. Off Thursday's relatively lopsided game, I'm expecting a more tightly-contested affair here on Saturday and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring result, noting that Bucks playoff games have averaged just 212.8 total points while Hawks postseason games have resulted in an average total of 213.4 points. Take the under (10*). |
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07-03-21 | Dodgers v. Nationals UNDER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
MLB on FOX Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Washington at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Dodgers prevailed by a 10-5 score. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Saturday, however. Clayton Kershaw gets the nod for Los Angeles. He's off to a terrific start this season having posted a 3.86 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in eight road starts. Better still, he owns a 2.88 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 11 nighttime outings. The Nationals have never really been able to figure the veteran left-hander out. He already tossed six shutout innings against them earlier this season. Behind Kershaw is a Dodgers bullpen that has recorded a collective 3.13 ERA and 1.19 WHIP at night this season. Paolo Espino will counter for Washington. He's been sharp in his last two spot starts and will be facing the Dodgers for the first time in his career on Saturday. With Espino averaging less than five innings per start we're likely to see plenty from the Nats' bullpen and that's not a bad thing. They've posted a collective 3.06 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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07-02-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens OVER 5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 and the 'under' in Game 2 of this series and here, I'll go back to the well with the 'over' as the scene shifts to Montreal for Game 3. Tampa Bay is obviously rolling offensively right now. While the Lightning haven't been quite as explosive offensively on the road this season, they still average just a shade under 3.0 goals per game. I would expect them to at the very least approach that number again here with the Habs showing no considerable difference in their ability to keep the puck out of their own net at home compared to on the road. Where I do expect a shift from the Habs is at the offensive end of the rink. As long as Montreal continues to pour on the pressure, it should only be a matter of time before it breaks through. Note that the Habs fired 43 shots on Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy in Game 2 but only managed a single goal. They've averaged three goals per game over their last six home games here in these playoffs. Note that Tampa Bay averages 3.6 goals per game with those contests totaling 6.0 goals on average after an 'under' result over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Montreal averages 3.0 goals per game after scoring one goal or less in its previous game this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-02-21 | Twins v. Royals OVER 10 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Twins have seen the 'over' cash in five straight and seven of their last eight games overall and I expect that streak to continue on Friday night. J.A. Happ will take the ball for Minnesota. He'll be starting on just four days' rest and has struggled at the best of times on the road this season, posting a 7.98 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in six road starts with the 'over' cashing in five of those games. The Royals will be getting their third look at the left-hander this season having already scored seven earned runs in just 10 innings against him. Behind Happ is a Twins bullpen that owns a 5.64 ERA and 1.44 WHIP with just seven saves converted and five blown in night games this season. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. He'll be making his third straight start on four days' rest and owns a 5.02 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in eight nighttime starts this season. The Twins have only scored three earned runs in 7 2/3 innings against him this season but in five career starts against Minnesota, Singer owns a 4.83 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. With Singer averaging less than five innings per start we're likely to see plenty of a Royals bullpen that hasn't had a day off since June 21st and has struggled to the tune of a 4.49 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with nine saves converted and seven blown at night this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-02-21 | Sky v. Wings UNDER 165.5 | Top | 91-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Dallas at 8 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in this same matchup two nights ago but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as we deal with a higher opening total in Friday's rematch. Chicago shot better than 47% from the field in Wednesday's victory. I'm confident we'll see Dallas make the necessary defensive adjustments here, noting that it had held four straight opponents to 43.7% shooting or worse prior to that contest. Offensively, we've seen Dallas score more than 80 points in three straight games but I believe that streak could be in jeopardy here. The Wings have actually shot just 41.3% as a team at home this season. They're not getting the same offensive production from the secondary scorers such as Marina Mabrey and Satou Sabally right now. As I noted in Wednesday's analysis, the Sky are one of the league's best defensive teams, limiting opponents to 74.1 points per game on 41% shooting on the road this season. They were in a tough spot on Wednesday but still kept the Wings offense in check for all intents and purposes. Expect an even better effort here. Take the under (10*). |
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07-02-21 | Astros v. Indians OVER 9 | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Houston and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We'll back the 'over' in the first five innings only in this one as I look for both offenses to get going early in this contest. There's not a lot bad I can say about Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. right now. However, I will point out that he has been laboring a bit in recent starts, only able to last through the sixth inning once in his last four starts. He'll be facing an Indians lineup that has hit better at home, averaging 4.5 runs per game and not all that different of an order than the one he struggled against in a pair of starts here at Progressive Field back in 2017-18 when he was tagged for 12 earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings. Sam Hentges will counter for Cleveland. He'll be starting on just four days' rest which spells trouble considering the last time he did that he gave up six earned runs in just 1 2/3 innings against the Angels. Hentges owns a 5.14 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in a pair of home starts this season. In fact, overall he has recorded a 7.77 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in six starts. You have to wonder how many turns he'll get in the rotation but for now, we'll fade him by playing the 'over' in the first five frames on Friday. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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07-02-21 | Spain v. Switzerland UNDER 2.5 | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Switzerland and Spain at 12 noon et on Friday. Both of these teams were involved in extremely high-scoring affairs in the knockout stage with Switzerland upsetting France on penalties and Spain getting past Croatia in extra time. Here, I look for a much more cagey affair with goals coming at a premium. High-scoring games aren't generally the norm as these international tournaments progress but that's certainly what we saw in the knockout stage. While Switzerland managed to survive against France thanks to a thrilling comeback, I don't think it wants to put itself in a similar position again here. While Spain hasn't always looked its best in this tournament, or in recent months for that matter, it certainly has exceptional talent as we saw against Croatia. I don't think we'll see the Swiss look to open things up too much at the risk of getting exposed at its own end of the pitch or in transition. Prior to its 5-3 win over Croatia, Spain had conceded just one goal in its first three matches in this tournament. In fact, it had given up just one goal in its last five matches combined going back to a pair of friendlies leading up to the tournament. Take the under (10*). |
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07-01-21 | Padres v. Reds UNDER 9 | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between San Diego and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. |
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07-01-21 | Mariners v. Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Toronto at 1:05 pm et on Thursday. The totals are beginning to be shaded much higher for games played in Buffalo and I believe the number will prove too high on Thursday afternoon. Yusei Kikuchi will take the ball for Seattle. He's been terrific on the road this season, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in eight starts. Better still, he owns a 1.87 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in five daytime starts. Also note that the Jays have faced him just once, that coming back in 2019 when he tossed a complete game shutout. Behind Kikuchi is a Mariners bullpen that has been better in day games this season, recording a collective 4.06 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 10 converted saves and only five blown. Hyun-Jin Ryu hasn't been his Cy Young-contending self for much of the season but that doesn't mean he hasn't pitched well. Ryu checks in with a 3.49 ERA and 1.19 WHIP at home (games split between Dunedin and Buffalo). Like Kikuchi, he's been better in day games, recording a 3.27 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He'll have the advantage of having never faced the Mariners. The Blue Jays bullpen owns a collective 3.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in day games this season, recording eight saves while blowing three. Take the under (10*). |
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06-30-21 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8 | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. I think we're in for a high-scoring affair between these two A.L. West rivals on Wednesday night in Oakland. Kolby Allard will get the start for the Rangers. He has struggled mightily in three career starts against the A's going back to last August, allowing 11 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings of work. In his last two outings against Oakland, Allard managed to record just two strikeouts while giving up 13 hits in only seven innings. With Allard averaging just a shade over five innings per start this season we should see plenty of the Rangers bullpen which has had a tough time on the road, posting a collective 5.62 ERA and 1.54 WHIP with just five saves converted and four blown. Chris Bassitt will counter for the A's. While he has pitched well we could see some regression from the right-hander here, noting that the Rangers have managed just two earned runs in 13 innings in their last two looks at him but have collected 13 hits and five walks. Bassitt will be making his fifth start since June 8th so he's had a pretty heavy workload this month. The A's bullpen has been effective in converting saves here at home but have only managed to record a collective 4.43 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Against division foes this season they've posted a 5.28 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Take the over (10*). |
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06-30-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning UNDER 5 | 1-3 | Win | 103 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Lightning and the 'over' in Game 1 of this series on Monday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Wednesday. The Canadiens got a bit of a wake-up call in the series-opener as they had yet to face a team as good as the Lightning all season. Not surprisingly, they were badly outplayed in a 5-1 loss. I do expect them to make the necessary adjustments and do a better job of defending the Bolts here, noting that the Habs have still allowed just 2.3 goals per game in the playoffs. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-5 with the Habs revenging a loss by two goals or more against an opponent this season with those contests totaling an average of just 4.9 goals. While the Lightning are certainly known for their offense, they can keep the puck out of their own net as well, giving up just 2.2 goals per game on home ice this season. They've been even better in that regard in the playoffs, allowing only 2.0 goals per contest. The 'under' is 14-5 with the Bolts coming off a home win by two goals or more this season with those games totaling an average of just 4.8 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 14-6 when Tampa Bay is leading a playoff series over the last two seasons. Tampa can't expect things to come as easy as they did in Game 1. In these playoffs, we've already seen the Lightning score six goals in a game against the Panthers and then just one in the next, six goals against the Hurricanes and then two in the next, and eight goals in a rout of the Islanders and then two in the next. It's important not to get too carried away by what we saw in the previous contest. Expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Take the under (10*). |
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06-30-21 | Sky v. Wings OVER 163 | 91-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Dallas at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams enter this game riding three-game 'under' streaks. I don't think that trend is sustainable, however. Chicago is coming off a miserable 58-point performance in a blowout loss to Connecticut last time out. Candace Parker is certainly in line for a strong bounce-back performance here after shooting 3-of-11 for six points in that most recent contest. In general, I expect the Sky to rebound offensively here noting that prior to that last game they had scored 91 points or more in three straight contests. Dallas isn't exactly a defensive powerhouse - it actually allows 1.9 points per game more than its season average when playing at home this season. The Wings have posted consecutive wins, scoring 89 and 85 points in the process with Arike Ogunbowale bouncing back following a mini shooting slump. She poured in 30 points last time out and should pick up where she left off here. Chicago does check in as one of the league's better defensive teams but the Wings are terrific offensively here at home, averaging just shy of 86 points per contest. In fact, Dallas home games have averaged 168 total points this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-30-21 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and St. Louis at 1:15 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games in this series have stayed 'under' the total but I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Riley Smith gets his first start since mid-May for the D'Backs. He's been awful this season, recording a 7.36 ERA and 1.68 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in four of his five starts. The fact that he averages just 4.4 innings per start is concerning given the Snakes bullpen has been awful, entering last night's action sporting a 5.63 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with only three saves converted and eight blown on the road this season. Kwang-Hyun Kim will be making his third consecutive start on four days' rest and checks in sporting a 4.43 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in day games this season (the 'over' has cashed in four of his five daytime starts). Like Smith, Kim doesn't work deep into games, averaging just 4.5 innings per start and it's worth noting that the Cards haven't had a day off since June 21st so their 'pen has been extended. Take the over (9*). |
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06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 218.5 | 88-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Atlanta at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in Game 3 of this series on Sunday night. In fact, we've won with the 'under' in each of the last two games. Here, I look for a different story to unfold in Game 4. We're being given a discounted total here due in large part to Hawks superstar Trae Young's status being up in the air after he bruised his foot in Sunday's loss. I would expect Young to play in this game but even if he doesn't, I still expect to see a relatively high-scoring affair. I've noted before that the Bucks have been a solid 'over' bet when coming off a win this season. Better still, off two or more consecutive victories, Milwaukee has posted a 23-12 o/u mark this season with those contests averaging 237.1 total points. Also note that the 'over' is 15-5 with the Hawks playing at home after a double-digit home loss over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those games reaching an average total of 237.0 points. Keep in mind, the Bucks are allowing nearly two points per game higher than their season average points allowed when playing on the road this season. With the 'under' having gone a combined 19-9-1 in all Bucks and Hawks playoff games, it's not a surprise that the totals are starting to get shaded much lower than we're accustomed to seeing. We even saw a closing total as high as 234 points in a game between these two teams back in April. With this being a virtual must-win for the Hawks (few teams come back from a 3-1 series deficit in the NBA Playoffs, especially without home court advantage) I expect them to throw everything they've got at Milwaukee here, which lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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06-29-21 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
American League First Five Innings Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Kansas City and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair to open this series in the Boston heat last night and I expect for another high-scoring start at least to Tuesday's contest. Brad Keller will take the ball for Kansas City. He'll inexplicably be making his seventh straight start on just four days' rest. The signs of wear are showing as he's been tagged for a whopping 20 earned runs over his last four starts, spanning just 20 1/3 innings of work. Note that he checks in sporting an ugly 6.91 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in 15 nighttime starts this season. Things don't figure to improve against a Red Sox lineup that just saw him on June 18th, scoring five earned runs over five innings against him. Nick Pivetta will counter for Boston. He'll also be pitching on four days' rest after a lights out 6 2/3 innings performance against the Rays last time out. Keep in mind, he owns a 4.57 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in eight home starts this season. The Royals will be getting their second look at Pivetta in as many weeks as well, having scored three earned runs on six hits and three walks over five innings against him back on June 18th. By playing the first five innings only we should avoid factoring in two bullpens that have held up reasonably well. Much like we saw last night, I expect the starters to get roughed up early in this one. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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06-29-21 | Liberty v. Dream UNDER 170.5 | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams two days ago as New York did most of the scoring in a 101-78 rout. Here, I look for Atlanta to make the necessary defensive adjustments, noting that the Liberty had been held to 78 points or less in five consecutive games prior to that outburst. Atlanta has now seen the 'over' cash in four straight games but I'm not sure that's a sustainable trend. The Dream recently welcomed back starting point guard Chennedy Carter but as we saw on Sunday, she can't do it all. Atlanta isn't an overly deep offensive team, especially with highly-touted rookie Aari McDonald struggling to find her groove at the professional level this season. Interestingly, New York has been a better defensive team on the road than at home this season, allowing 85.9 points per game on 43.1% shooting. The Liberty average less than 80 points per game themselves away from home so again, a repeat of Sunday's 101-point effort is unlikely. The 'over' has cashed in both meetings between these two teams this season. Last year, we saw the 'under' cash in both matchups, including one game that totaled just 118 points. Expect this one to stay 'under' the generous total. Take the under (10*). |
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06-29-21 | Germany v. England UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Euro Knockout Stage Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between England and Germany at 12 noon et on Tuesday. After yesterday's two thrilling, high-scoring games, most will be quick to go 'over' this low total in Wednesday's first of two knockout stage matchups. I'll go the other way, however, as I envision England having a tough time breaking down Germany, and vice versa. Germany is certainly not without its flaws defensively. It has allowed five goals in three matches in this tournament to date, conceding in all three contests. With that being said, England has shown precious few flashes of brilliance on the attack, generally looking hamstrung in all three tournament matches to date. At its own end of the pitch, the Three Lions have looked well-organized, however, and while Germany offers a stiff challenge, I believe England will be up for it in front of the home faithful at Wembley Stadium on Tuesday. While we've become somewhat accustomed to high-octane, thrill-a-minute matches involving Joachim Low's German side in this tournament, I expect a different story to unfold here as things generally tend to tighten up in the knockout stage (you wouldn't know it by yesterday's results, of course). Take the under (10*). |
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06-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns OVER 214 | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Monday. NOTE: I'm recommending a play on the 'first half over' which is currently set at 106 points at the time of writing. While I would like to play the full game 'over' the total in this one off that ridiculously low-scoring Game 4 result on Saturday, I can't quite get there with the possibility that we see the Suns shift into cruise control should they build a sizeable second half lead in this one. In general, it seems that we've seen a trend this round with games starting out fairly high-scoring before petering out down the stretch. We can expect the Suns to come out with an attacking mindset here as they look to wrap up this series and give themselves even more rest heading into the NBA Finals. We certainly haven't seen their best over the last couple of games, particularly from Devin Booker after he broke his nose in Game 2. Back at home, I do expect to see a much better offensive showing from Phoenix, noting that it averages just shy of 59 points per game in the first half here this season. For the Clippers, this could be their last stand and off a miserable 32.5% shooting performance on Saturday we can expect them to bounce back and come out strong here, noting that they hadn't shot worse than 45% from the field since Game 1 against Utah last round and even in that contest they shot a respectable 42.4%. Game 4 marked the first time since back on April 1st that Los Angeles was held to fewer than 100 points in a game. Again, should the Suns build a considerable lead in the second half of this game we could very well see the Kawhi-less Clippers fold the tent and call it a season. With that in mind, we'll call for a relatively high-scoring start as this one gets 'over' the very reasonable first half total. Take the first half over (10*). |
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06-28-21 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 7 | Top | 4-14 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Monday. I'm expecting a low-scoring affair as the Cubs and Brewers renew their N.L. Central rivalry on Monday night in Milwaukee. Kyle Hendricks will take the ball for the Cubs. He has turned his season around after a rocky start, working at least six innings in eight straight outings and posting a sparkling 1.00 ERA and 0.67 WHIP over his last three starts. He's been at his best against divisional opponents this season, recording a 3.40 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. While the Brewers have had plenty of looks at Hendricks in recent years, they've never really been able to figure him out. He has allowed just four earned runs in his last five outings against Milwaukee, covering a span of 33 2/3 innings. Behind Hendricks is one of the best bullpens in baseball as the Cubs relief corps has posted a collective 2.88 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the road this season, blowing only two saves while converting 10. Freddy Peralta will counter for Milwaukee. He's been lights out in seven home starts this season, posting a 1.62 ERA and 0.59 WHIP. In seven nighttime starts he owns a 1.74 ERA and 0.70 WHIP with the 'under' cashing at a 4-2-1 clip. The Cubs have already seen Peralta three times this season but haven't had much success, scoring just three earned runs in 15 innings. The 'under' is 3-1 in his four previous career starts against Chicago. Like the Cubs, the Brewers have a solid bullpen that has been at its best in night games this season, recording a collective 3.47 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with a 10:4 converted save rate. Take the under (10*). |
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06-28-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning OVER 5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Monday. You would have to go back to 2015 to find the last time a Stanley Cup Final series-opener finished 'under' five total goals. I don't expect that trend to change on Monday. Note that the 'over' has gone 8-2 with the Lightning coming off consecutive games where they scored two goals or less this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.3 goals. Following an 'under' result over the last two seasons, Tampa Bay's next game has totaled an average of 6.1 goals. Meanwhile, the Canadiens average 3.1 goals per game when playing on the road off two or more consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Those games have averaged 5.6 total goals. I think there's always a bit of a tendency for teams to 'exhale' after reaching the Stanley Cup Final. Both teams have been involved in a number of tightly-contested low-scoring affairs recently but here I look for things to open up. Take the over (10*). |
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06-28-21 | Spain v. Croatia UNDER 2.5 | 3-3 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Croatia and Spain at 12 noon et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring results in their group stage finales with Spain rolling to a 5-0 victory over Slovakia and Croatia pulling out a 3-1 win over Scotland to book its place in the knockout stage. As we've seen so far in the knockout stage, however, goals should become much tougher to come by here. Croatia will be without arguably their top scoring threat in Ivan Perisic following a positive Covid diagnosis. We've seen Croatia revert back into its defensive shell at times during this tournament and that could very well be its best chance at staging an upset against Spain here on Monday. Spain is brimming with talent but it hasn't always come together the way it did against an overmatched Slovakia side last time out. La Roja have actually been held to one goal or less in three of its last five matches overall, including a pair of 0-0 draws against Portugal and Sweden. Spain knows it has the ability to stay well-organized and ultimately prevail in a 1-0 type of contest here. That's essentially the framework that it employed in the first two matches of this tournament before things opened up for it against the Slovaks'. Take the under (10*). |
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06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 224 | 113-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Atlanta at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. The first two games in this series have been relatively high-scoring although only one of those contests managed to find its way 'over' the total. We won with the 'under' in Game 2 on Friday night and I'll go back to the well with the same play here as the scene shifts to Atlanta on Sunday. The Bucks put up 125 points in Friday's blowout win. The last time we saw them put up that type of offensive performance, their next game easily stayed 'under' the total, reaching only 197 points in Game 3 of round one against Miami. Note that Bucks playoff games are averaging a total of just 212.1 points. Hawks playoff games are averaging just 212.9 total points. Atlanta, like most NBA teams, has been a better defensive team at home this season, where it gives up 108.5 points per game compared to its season average of 110.7 ppg allowed. I don't think they want to get involved in a track meet with Milwaukee here as that would play into the Bucks preferred pace of play. Take the under (10*). |
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06-27-21 | Sparks v. Mercury OVER 155.5 | 79-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 6 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' the last time these two teams met on June 18th but I believe the total will prove too low this time around, as the scene shifts to Phoenix for Sunday's matchup. The Mercury have actually been idle since that last game in Los Angeles nine days ago. They're expected to have Diana Taurasi back for Sunday's game. While I would usually think it might be tough for a player to get re-acclimated after an extended absence, Taurasi is a veteran that has been through it before and the with the team having had plenty of practice time between games, I look for the Mercury offense to do just fine. The Sparks are dealing with a cluster of key injuries right now but should still enter this game with confidence after scoring 89 points in a win over Washington last time out. Los Angeles is allowing 80.8 points per game on the road this season but the Mercury haven't been any better defensively at home, giving up 81.7 points per game. Note that the 'over' has gone 8-1 with the Sparks having lost four or five of their last six games ATS over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those contests totaling an average of 168.9 points. Take the over (10*). |
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06-27-21 | Portugal v. Belgium UNDER 2.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Belgium and Portugal at 3 pm et on Sunday. With so much scoring ability on both sides it may seem like a curious decision to back the 'under' in this star-studded knockout stage showdown on Sunday. However, I believe we'll see both teams mirror one another in what is likely a 1-0 or 1-1 outcome after 90 minutes. Belgium has conceded just a single goal in this tournament, that coming in the opening minutes against an emotional Denmark squad that was playing in front of the home faithful in Copenhagen following the stunning events involving Christian Eriksen in its opening match. Apart from that, Belgium has looked rock solid at its back-end and I would expect that to continue against the defending European champions on Sunday. Meanwhile, Portugal's 4-2 loss to Germany is still fresh in the minds of most entering this clash. Of course, Ronaldo and company did redeem themselves somewhat with a 2-2 draw against France to close out the group stage and wrap up an advancing third-place position in their group. I believe Portugal is a better-organized, more stout defensive squad than it has shown in its last two matches and here in the knockout stage against the top-ranked nation in the world, should settle into a slightly more conservative shape. We should see plenty of flashes of brilliance in this match but I believe the oddsmakers have it right setting a relatively low total on Sunday. Take the under (10*). |
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06-27-21 | Nationals v. Marlins UNDER 6.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating another low-scoring game between these two teams on Sunday afternoon as we have a terrific pitching matchup between Max Scherzer and Sandy Alcantara. Scherzer checks in sporting a 2.41 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in seven road starts this season. Better still, he owns a 2.01 ERA and 0.62 WHIP in six daytime starts. He's seemingly gotten stronger with each passing start against the Marlins, most recently holding them to one earned run in a complete game victory back on May 2nd. Behind Scherzer is a Nationals bullpen that has been at its best in day games this season, recording a collective 3.35 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with eight saves converted and only three blown. Sandy Alcantara is quietly having a fine season for the Marlins. He has posted a 2.19 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in eight home starts and a sparkling 0.74 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in five daytime outings. Like Scherzer, he has gotten stronger with each passing start against today's opponent, most recently allowing just one earned run over six innings against Miami last September. The Marlins bullpen has been terrific here at home this season, posting a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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06-26-21 | Austria v. Italy OVER 2.5 | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Italy and Austria at 3 pm et on Saturday. I'll take a shot with the 'over' but would recommend playing it at 2.0, even with the steeper price, if your book offers alternate totals on Saturday afternoon. Italy hasn't conceded a goal since late last year, covering a string of more than 1,000 minutes of action. With that being said, we have seen Austria at least show the ability to go on the attack when it wants to with the super duo of Christoph Baumgartner and David Alaba capable of creating some magic. That being said, Italy will be extremely difficult to break down but just a single goal from the Austrians would likely seal a win for us with this play. On the flip side, the indecisiveness the Austrians have shown in figuring out whether to sit back and defend or look to push forward could certainly leave them vulnerable against a clinical Italian attack here. Even if Austria is able to hold the Azzurri back for an extended stretch, the floodgates could certainly open late, similar to what we saw between Portugal and Hungary earlier in the tournament (we won with the 'over' 2.5 in that match despite a 0-0 score with less than 10 minutes remaining). Italy has a wealth of options to lean on up front and while it is extremely stout at the back, it will likely be without its experienced workhorse in Giorgio Chiellini for this one. Meanwhile, Austria welcomed back one of its top attacking threats in Marko Arnautovic from a one-game ban in its last match and he'll be a welcome sight against such a tough Italy defense. Take the over (10*). |
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06-26-21 | Mystics v. Wings OVER 164.5 | 74-85 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Dallas at 1 pm et on Saturday. |
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 225.5 | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Friday. Game 1 managed to creep over the total in the closing minute of the fourth quarter but I look for a different story to unfold on Friday night. Keep in mind, Hawks playoff games have totaled an average of just 212.6 points. Meanwhile, Bucks playoff games have totaled only 211.7 points on average. The Bucks have of course been a much better defensive team at home than on the road this season, allowing 111 points per game on 44.8% shooting. The Hawks on the other hand, average 1.5 points per game fewer and shoot 0.6% below their season average on the road. That's not a big difference by any means but still worth noting as they come off a peak performance away from home in Game 1. The 'under' is a perfect 10-0 the last 10 times the Hawks have played on the road coming off consecutive outright road underdog victories, as is the case here. Milwaukee has seen the 'under' go a solid 19-10 when coming off a loss this season with those games totaling an average of 220.3 points. Take the under (9*). |
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06-25-21 | Mariners v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 | 9-3 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. With both of these offenses struggling a bit right now and two in-form starting pitchers on the mound, I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair on Friday night. Yusei Kikuchi will start for the Mariners. He has posted a 2.85 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in seven road starts this season but due in large part to the Mariners unreliable offense, has only managed to post a 3-4 team record in those seven outings. Kikuchi checks in having allowed just one earned run in 14 innings in his last two starts. While he has struggled in two previous starts against the White Sox, both of those came during his rookie MLB season as he struggled to transition from Japan, posting an ERA north of five and a 1.50 WHIP. The Mariners bullpen hasn't been great on the road this season but has pitched well lately and comes off an off day yesterday. Carlos Rodon has quite simply been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season for the White Sox, checking in with a sparkling 1.99 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in five home starts, including a no-hitter. He's given up just three earned runs in 19 innings of work over his last three starts. Rodon has already shut the Mariners down once this season and has performed well in all four career outings against them with the 'under' cashing in each of the last three. Chicago's bullpen also comes off an off day and has recorded a collective 3.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP here at home this season. Take the under (9*). |
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06-25-21 | Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5 | 0-1 | Win | 115 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We've already won twice with the 'under' in this series, settling for a 'push' with that same play in Game 6. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well as the Isles and Lightning do battle in Game 7 on Friday night. While the Lightning have almost always been known for their offense, their Game 7 history is as low-scoring as it gets. In fact, the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 in their last eight Game 7 contests, with those games averaging a ridiculously-low total of just 2.4 goals. The 'under' is also 7-1 the last eight times the Lightning have played at home looking to close out a series with those contests averaging just 4.3 total goals. Under the guidance of head coach Jon Cooper the 'under' is a terrific 17-5 with the Lightning playing at home in potential series-clinching games with those contests all totaling just 4.3 total goals on average. The Islanders know they can ill afford to let down their guard after prevailing 3-2 in overtime last time out. We saw what the Lightning are capable of in Game 5 here in Tampa as they lit up the Isles in an 8-0 rout. New York may have a bit of an advantage here if Lightning superstar Nikita Kucherov isn't healthy enough to play after exiting in the first minute of Game 6 following an ugly cross check. Take the under (10*). |
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06-24-21 | Wings v. Fever OVER 162 | Top | 89-64 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Indiana at 7 pm et on Thursday. We missed with Dallas two nights ago as it dropped a disappointing 80-70 decision at the hands of Connecticut after blowing a big second half lead. Here, I look for the Wings to pick up the pieces and turn in a stellar offensive performance but I'm not counting on their defensive play to excel against a desperate Indiana squad. Dallas has shot 59-for-125 (47.2%) over its last two games and should feast in this bounce-back spot. Indiana actually turned in a terrific defensive effort last time out but still gave up 82 points in a losing effort despite holding Minnesota to a 37% shooting night. Keep in mind, prior to that game, the lowly Fever had allowed nine straight opponents to shoot 42.4% or better from the field with five of those opponents shooting 49.3% or better. The Fever are now a miserable 1-14 on the season but will perhaps look at this as a prime opportunity to pick up a rare win after just missing against the Lynx on Tuesday. Dallas has now allowed three of its last four opponents to score 80 points or more. Opponents are averaging 83.3 points per game when the Wings play on the road this season. The fact that the last five meetings in this series have all stayed 'under' the total and the Fever enter this one riding a three-game 'under' streak has actually set us up with a generously-low total. Take the over (10*). |
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06-24-21 | Royals v. Yankees UNDER 10 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and New York at 1:05 pm et on Thursday. This has been a high-scoring series so far with each of the first two games cruising 'over' the total. I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday afternoon, however. With a starting pitching matchup of Brad Keller and Jameson Taillon, neither of which having been able to work deep into ball games with any consistency, we should see plenty of the two bullpens in this game. That's not a bad thing for 'under' backers, giving both relief corps' have been solid this season. Keller hasn't been good this season but he has been marginally better on the road than he has at home, recording a 4.75 ERA - I realize that's not saying much. The 'under' has gone 4-2-1 in his seven road outings compared to his 5-3 o/u mark at home. Behind Keller is a Royals bullpen that has posted a 3.58 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with seven converted saves and only four blown on the road this season. Taillon has actually been solid at home this season, recording a 3.29 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in eight starts with the 'under' cashing in five of those. He faced the Royals once back in 2018 and tossed seven shutout innings. Interestingly, we have seen some continuity with the Royals lineup in recent years so that start is still worth mentioning in my opinion. The Yankees bullpen has been among the best in baseball this season, posting a 3.40 ERA and 1.18 WHIP here at home. They've posted six saves with only two blown in day games this season, recording a collective 3.24 ERA and 1.05 WHIP along the way. Take the under (9*). |
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06-23-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
NHL Elimination Game Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Lightning rolled to an 8-0 victory in Game 5 of this series on Monday (we won with Tampa Bay in that game). I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair on Wednesday as the scene shifts back to Long Island for Game 6. The Isles are of course known for their defensive play under head coach Barry Trotz and that's what makes the lopsided nature of Game 5 so stunning. Back at home, the Isles should respond favorably as they've allowed just 2.1 goals per game at Nassau Coliseum this season. Note that the Lightning have also been a weaker offensive team on the road this season, where they average 2.9 goals per game, well below their season average of 3.3 goals per contest. The 'under' has actually gone 7-1 the last eight times the Lightning have played on the road looking to close out a playoff series with those games averaging just 4.2 total goals. The 'under' is also 9-1 with Tampa Bay playing on the road off a home win this season with those contests totaling an average of just 4.3 goals. Meanwhile, the Islanders have posted a 1-8 o/u record when revenging a loss by three goals or more this season with those games totaling an average of only 3.6 goals. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 with the Isles coming off a shutout loss on the road over the last two seasons with that situation producing a staggeringly-low 2.7 total goals on average. We've yet to see consecutive games go 'over' the total in this series and I don't see it happening here either. Take the under (10*). |
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06-23-21 | Blue Jays v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 3-1 | Win | 104 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams last night and I expect more of the same on Wednesday. Robbie Ray will take the ball for the Blue Jays. The Marlins have faced him seven times over the course of his career and they've never really figured him out. In four looks at him since the start of the 2018 season they've managed to score just four earned runs in 24 innings. In 10 nighttime starts this season, Ray has posted a 3.41 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with the 'under' cashing at a 7-3 clip. The Blue Jays bullpen gets a bad rap, and perhaps rightfully so of late. However, they've performed reasonably well as a whole on the road this season, recording a collective 3.29 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 11 converted saves and only three blown. The Marlins will hand the ball to their ace Trevor Rogers. He has been terrific at home this season, posting a 1.93 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in five starts here in Miami. You would have to go back to May 2nd to find the last time Rogers allowed more than two earned runs in a start. He also averages just shy of six innings per start this season. Note that he has the advantage of facing the Blue Jays for the first time in his career. Behind Rogers is a Marlins bullpen that has recorded a collective 3.29 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with only four blown saves at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-23-21 | Lynx v. Dream UNDER 168 | 87-85 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The 'over' has cashed in the first two meetings in this series this season but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Both teams are coming off poor defensive efforts with the Lynx giving up 95 points on 50% shooting in a blowout loss in Dallas and Atlanta allowing 96 points on 49.3% shooting in a three-point loss in Washington. Keep in mind, prior to that, both teams had allowed sub-40% shooting in their previous contest. Here, we find both teams playing on extended rest with the Lynx idle since Saturday and the Dream having not played since last Thursday. Neither team has been consistent offensively, with Minnesota shooting 40.9% on the road and Atlanta shooting 40.8% at home. With this being the third meeting between these two teams this season, I believe that familiarity will lend itself to a relatively low-scoring affair on Wednesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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06-23-21 | Poland v. Sweden UNDER 2.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -150 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Sweden and Poland at 12 noon et on Wednesday. |
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06-22-21 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed our free play on the 'under' in the opener of this series last night as a hot start at the plate by the Padres proved to be our downfall. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well, however, as we have a fine pitching matchup between Clayton Kershaw and Blake Snell. Kershaw enters this start having lasted at least six innings in seven consecutive outings. He owns an outstanding 2.73 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 10 nighttime starts this season. He'll be pitching on five days' rest here. The Padres have never really been able to figure Kershaw out, somewhat incredibly scoring three earned runs or less in each of their last 23 games against him. The Dodgers bullpen has been terrific lately, posting a sub-3.00 ERA over their last seven games and check in sporting a collective 3.27 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 18 converted saves and only eight blown at night this season. Blake Snell has been a completely different pitcher at home compared to on the road this season. Here at Petco Park he owns a 1.65 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in six starts. He got lit up in his most recent outing but that was a less than ideal situation as he was pitching on four days' rest at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Colorado no less. The Dodgers have had four looks at Snell going back to last year's playoffs. They've managed to score only seven earned runs on just 13 hits in 20 1/3 innings against him in those four games. The Padres have one of the best bullpens in baseball, checking in with a 2.72 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 16 saves and only four blown saves at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-22-21 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 7.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in the opener of this series last night but I do think we're set up well to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday. Freddy Peralta will get the start for the Brewers. While he has been terrific this season you do have to wonder whether some regression is on the way. Here, the D'Backs will be getting their second look at him this season and I expect them to fare better than they did on June 4th when they managed just one earned run over 7 1/3 innings. That was in Milwaukee. Here at home, the D'Backs actually average a respectable 4.9 runs per game. Note that Peralta averages just 4 2/3 innings per start on the road this season. That could spell trouble for an overworked Brewers bullpen that hasn't had a day off in over two weeks and has converted nine saves compared to seven blown on the road this season. Zac Gallen will make his second start since returning form the I.L. for the D'Backs and he'll do so on just four days' rest. He hasn't been good at the best of times here at home this season, posting a 5.62 ERA and 1.63 WHIP, averaging just four innings per start. That opens the door for a D'Backs bullpen that has struggled to the tune of a 5.21 ERA and 1.51 WHIP with only three converted saves and four blown here at home. Like the Brewers, the D'Backs have an overworked bullpen that hasn't had an off day in over two weeks. Take the over (10*). |
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06-22-21 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights OVER 5 | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've yet to see a game produce more than five goals in this series but I still think it's coming. With so much criticism of the officials letting too much go in this series (and in Game 4 in particular) I would expect this one to be called a little tighter, perhaps leading to more power play opportunities for both teams. Apart from that, it's certainly worth noting that the 'over' has gone 13-5 with the Knights coming off a one-goal victory this season with those games averaging a whopping 6.6 total goals. Meanwhile, the Canadiens have allowed 3.3 goals per game when coming off a one-goal loss over the last two seasons, with those contests producing an average total of 6.4 goals. With Montreal coming off a game where four or less goals were scored, their next game has averaged 5.7 total goals over the last two seasons. Look for things to finally open up in this series on Tuesday night in Las Vegas. Take the over (9*). |
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06-22-21 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224 | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. Thanks to Game 1 finishing north of 230 points we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total than we saw in the series-opener, a move that I'm not convinced is warranted. The Clippers allowed the Suns to shoot better than 55% from the field in Game 1. Perhaps that wasn't all that surprising considering how little time they had to prepare for the Suns surging offense (which had a different look than they're used to with Chris Paul sidelined). Here, we can bank on the Clippers responding favorably from a defensive standpoint noting that on five previous occasions where they've come off a game where they've allowed the opposition to shoot better than 55% from the field they've given up just 103.6 points per contest. Note that the 'under' has gone 32-18 the last 50 times the Clippers have played as a road underdog, as is the case here. The Suns are known for their offense led by Devin Booker (who recorded a triple-double in Game 1) and Chris Paul (who as I mentioned remains sidelined). However, they're actually a quality defensive team, allowing just 106.5 points per game on 45.5% shooting at home this season. There's no question that Kawhi Leonard's absence makes the Clippers a weaker defensive team but it hurts them offensively as well. The Suns didn't do a great job of defending Paul George in Game 1 but just like Los Angeles, Phoenix should make the necessary defensive adjustments here. Noting that this will now be the fifth meeting between these two teams this season with only Game 1 finding its way 'over' the total we're dealing with for Game 2, familiarity has a tendency to lend itself to tighter, lower-scoring contests. Take the under (10*). |
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06-22-21 | England v. Czech Republic UNDER 2.25 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Czech Republic and England at 3 pm et on Tuesday. England hasn't looked all that creative on attack in its first two matches in this tournament, managing just a single goal - that coming in the second half of its opener against Croatia. Here, I expect the Three Lions to find life rather difficult once again as they face a Czech Republic squad that has been tough to break down in this tournament so far. The lone blemish on the Czech record came by way of a 1-1 draw against Croatia last time out. That result could be looked at as a success of course as it assured the Czech's of advancement to the knockout stage of the tournament thanks to a previous 2-0 win over Scotland. The only goal we've seen the Czech Republic allow in this tournament came on an incredible solo effort from Croatia's Ivan Perisic. England, however, has shown few glimpses of such ability here in this tournament with striker Harry Kane struggling to find much open field. We're likely to see some changes to the England lineup on Tuesday but I'm not expecting those changes to suddenly open the floodgates. Keep in mind, while first place in the group is up for grabs in this match, I'm not convinced that either side will be overly interested as that placing likely results in a matchup with one of the three top-flight squads in the 'Group of Death' (France, Germany and Portugal are likely the three to advance in that group). That's not to say we'll see both sides sit back on their heels in this one, but I'm not anticipating a free-flowing affair either. Take the under 2.5 goals (10*). |
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06-21-21 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the Brewers 7-6 win over the Rockies yesterday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they continue their road trip against the reeling D'Backs in Arizona. Brett Anderson will take the ball for the Brewers. He's coming off a surprisingly strong start against the Reds, tossing seven shutout innings. That was at home, however. He's been awful on the road this season, posting a 5.47 ERA and 1.46 WHIP while averaging just 3.5 innings per start. The fact that he hasn't been able to work deep into ball games doesn't bode well given the Brewers overworked bullpen hasn't had a day off in two weeks and checks in sporting a collective 4.76 ERA and 1.59 WHIP with two converted saves to go along with two blown over their last seven games. The D'Backs have already faced Anderson once this season, chasing him after just 4 1/3 innings, scoring three earned runs on eight hits and striking out only once. Merrill Kelly will counter for Arizona. The Brewers have seen him three times since the start of the 2019 season, including once this year. In their last two games against Kelly they've hit him hard, scoring 10 earned runs on 14 hits, including three home runs, in just 10 1/3 innings. Kelly owns a 5.19 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 11 nighttime starts this season. Working behind Kelly is an awful D'Backs bullpen that has posted a collective 5.29 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with only three converted saves and four blown here at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-21-21 | Netherlands v. North Macedonia OVER 3 | 3-0 | Push | 0 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Netherlands and North Macedonia at 12 noon et on Monday. |
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06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 216 | 103-96 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. This is the lowest total we've seen in this series so far. I believe it will prove too low. The Hawks have held the 76ers to 46.7% shooting or worse in three straight games but I think this is a game where they struggle to 'hold onto the rope' so to speak. Philadelphia is a better offensive team than it has shown over the last few games, averaging 117.9 points per game here at home this season. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-12 with the 76ers playing at home off an 'under' result over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 222.3 points. The 'over' is also 15-5 with the 76ers at home off an ATS victory, with that situation producing an average total of 231.8 points. Meanwhile, the Hawks have shot 47.6% or worse in five straight games since opening this series with a 51.2% shooting performance in a 128-124 victory. Atlanta really has nothing to lose in this one as few gave it any legitimate shot at winning this series from the outset. There's little reason for the Hawks to hold anything back and should they fall behind, we can expect them to shift into 'hack-a-Ben' mode in an effort to extend this game. Take the over (10*). |
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06-20-21 | White Sox v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 2-8 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Houston at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. We've won with the Astros in each of the last two games but I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as they close out their series with the White Sox on Sunday. Dallas Keuchel will get the nod for Chicago. He's rounded into form over his last three starts, posting a stellar 1.42 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 19 innings of work. Keuchel has been solid in six road starts this season, recording a 3.37 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Interestingly, he's never faced his former team, the Astros, perhaps giving him a bit of an advantage here. Behind Keuchel is a White Sox bullpen that has held its own in day games this season, posting a collective 4.04 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with 10 converted saves compared to only four blown. Lance McCullers Jr. will counter for Houston. We missed with the 'under' in his last start, only thanks to extra innings (that game was 2-1 in the ninth inning but ended 6-3 to go 'over' by half a run). That was his first start back off the I.L. and while he wasn't overly effective, he pitched well enough to keep the Rangers bats at bay into the fifth inning. I expect him to get stretched out a little more here. Note that he has recorded a 3.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in six home starts this season. The White Sox faced him twice during the 2018 season and weren't able to figure him out, scoring just two earned runs in 13 innings. Of course that can be taken with a grain of salt as we're talking about a largely different White Sox lineup today. Behind McCullers is an Astros bullpen that has been lights out lately, and entered last night's game sporting a collective 3.68 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home this season with seven converted saves compared to just three blown. Take the under (10*). |
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06-20-21 | Wales v. Italy UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
Euro Group Stage Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Italy and Wales at 12 noon et on Sunday. After we won with the 'over' in Italy's tournament debut against Turkey we cashed with the Azzurri but missed with our free play on the 'under' in their 3-0 victory over Switzerland last time out. Here, I'm confident we'll finally see a match involving Italy total less than three goals as they take on Wales with both sides looking for little more than a tune-up leading up to the knockout stage. At least seven changes are expected to Italy's starting lineup. The Azzurri are obviously a deep squad but there's no question we're going to see a drop-off in execution, particularly at their opponent's end of the pitch with the likes of Immobile, Barella and Insigne likely on the bench. Even Chiesa, who made a late entrance into the match against Switzerland may start this contest on the sideline. For Wales, it is coming off a somewhat improbable 2-0 victory over Turkey that all but assured it advancement to the next round. After looking rather punchless in its tournament opener against Switzerland, a game they somehow managed to draw 1-1, the Welsh did show much more promise against Turkey. Now that they have four points under their belt, however, we're unlikely to see the same type of fire from the Welsh here. Lineup changes are almost a certainty and the fact that they're such a sizable underdog against what is essentially Italy's 'B' squad is telling in my opinion. A 2-0 result is the most likely outcome in this contest. With that being said, a 0-0 or 1-1 result is well within the realm of possibility as well should Italy show no interest in playing for keeps. Take the under (10*). |
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06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 215 | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Brooklyn at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. Whether this is a competitive affair or a blowout, I like the chances of it being high-scoring after the first six games in this series have been predominantly low-scoring (relatively speaking), with the 'under' cashing at a 5-1 clip (or 5-0-1 depending on your number in Game 5). The Nets essentially 'folded the tent' and moved on to Game 7 after falling behind in Game 6 in Milwaukee on Thursday. Here, we can expect them to bounce back from a poor 89-point effort back home where they've put up 115, 125 and 114 points in this series. Note that the 'over' is 12-4 with the Bucks coming off a double-digit home win this season with those games totaling an average of 236.4 points. The 'over' has generally been a solid bet with Milwaukee following an 'under' result, going 46-33 over the last two seasons, producing an average total of 230.4 points. As for the Nets, they've actually allowed 113.3 points per game as a favorite this season, with the 'over' cashing at a 35-23 clip. That situation has produced an average total of 233.1 points. The Bucks just aren't the same defensive team on the road, where they allow 114.5 points per game this season. If they're going to finally steal a game here in Brooklyn when it matters most, they're going to need to put up a peak offensive performance, but given they average just shy of 118 points per game away from home, we know that they're capable. Take the over (10*). |
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06-19-21 | Lightning v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
NHL Stanley Cup Semis Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Game 3 of this series two nights ago but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' on Saturday as the Islanders look to answer back following consecutive losses. New York has to realize at this point that it's not going to win this series by sitting back on its heels. The Isles have now registered less than 30 shots in consecutive games. When they've been at their best in these playoffs they've been playing with an attacking mindset, as evidenced by their lone win in this series, a 2-1 victory in Game 1 where they fired 31 shots on goal. Note that the 'over' is 8-2 with the Isles playing at home after a game where three or less total goals were scored this season, as is the case here. That situation has produced a whopping 7.2 goals on average this season. The 'over' is also 22-12 with the Isles revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last two seasons with an average total of 6.4 goals scored in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lightning have posted a 13-6 o/u record when playing consecutive road games this season with that situation producing 6.4 total goals on average. Over the last two seasons, Lightning games following an 'under' result have averaged 6.0 total goals. The Lightning aren't likely to sit back and play conservatively just because they've grabbed a 2-1 series lead. I look for both teams to find more offensive success than we saw in a tightly-contested Game 3. We'll take advantage of the '5' being offered tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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06-18-21 | Mercury v. Sparks UNDER 157.5 | Top | 80-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
WNBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'under' in this same matchup two nights ago but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. We're being given a more favorable number to work with and I look for both teams to make the necessary defensive adjustments to help keep this one 'under' the total. The Sparks had no answers for Mercury star Brittney Griner on Wednesday as she shot 10-of-16 from the field and got to the free throw line 12 times on her way to a 30-point explosion. I fully expect to see the Sparks make some adjustments and do a better job of keeping her contained here. I also think we'll see things balance out a bit after the Mercury held a 28-6 free throw edge two nights ago. Credit Los Angeles for prevailing in that contest thanks to shooting 45% from the field. Keep in mind, this is a team that had shot 36.8% or worse from the field in their previous three games. Phoenix will undoubtedly respond with a better defensive effort, noting that it had previously held six straight opponents to 42.7% or worse shooting. The 'over' has now cashed in each of the Mercury's last two games. Note that they've yet to post three straight 'over' results this season. The last time they were in position to do so they totaled just 151 points in their next game. The Sparks on the other hand have yet to post consecutive 'over' results this season. Their two previous contests following an 'over' result totaled just 131 and 144 points. Take the under (10*). |
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06-18-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens OVER 5 | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in Game 3 between the Lightning and Islanders last night. In fact, in going 4-0 this round we've yet to step in with a play on the 'over'. We'll switch gears and do so here, however, as the Knights and Canadiens head north for Game 3 in Montreal. Vegas got off to a quick offensive start in this series but looked like a different team in Game 2, perhaps missing first-line center Chandler Stephenson, or perhaps taking the Habs a little too lightly after cruising to a 4-1 win in the series-opener. Whatever the case, I expect to see the Knights bounce back offensively in this one. The Canadiens haven't been a better defensive team at home this season, allowing an identical 2.9 goals per game to what they give up on the road. The Knights, meanwhile, haven't suffered much of a drop-off in offensive production away from home, averaging 3.2 goals per contest, just 0.1 goals per game lower than their season average. Keep in mind, Knights road games this season have averaged 5.5 goals per game while their playoff games have averaged just shy of that at 5.4 goals per game. The Canadiens have admittedly been involved in lower-scoring playoff affairs, with their games averaging just 4.8 total goals, however, it's worth noting that each of their last four games have totaled at least five goals. I simply feel that we're going to see totals back at 5.5 in this series, just as we saw back in Game 1. Look for the Knights to come out with an attacking mindset after a poor performance in Game 2 while the Habs aren't likely to lay down here at home, helping contribute to this one going 'over' the relatively low total. Take the over (10*). |
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06-18-21 | A's v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. This is being pegged as a potential slugfest between two hot-hitting teams in the Bronx on Friday night. I expect a different story to unfold, however. Rookie James Kaprielian will get the start for Oakland. Making your first career start at Yankee Stadium is always a big deal and I think Kaprielian will be up to the challenge. Keep in mind, his first big league start came at Fenway Park back in May and he gave up just one earned run over five innings in a 4-1 A's victory. Kaprielian has really had just one bad start in six turns in the rotation this season, that coming in Seattle back on May 31st. Consider he was making his second straight start on four days' rest in that situation. Here, he pitches on five days' rest for the third consecutive time. While Kaprielian averages just 5.4 innings per start this season that's not a major concern as the A's bullpen comes off an off day yesterday and has been terrific on the road this season, recording a collective 3.21 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Jameson Taillon looks to bounce back from one of the worst (and shortest) outings of his career. He's actually well-positioned to do so here at home, where he has been at his best this season recording a 3.22 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in seven starts. He averages just over five innings per start at home but again, that's not a big concern as the Yankees bullpen has been effective here at home, posting a collective 3.23 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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06-18-21 | Czech Republic v. Croatia OVER 2.25 | 1-1 | Loss | -50 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Croatia vs. Czech Republic 'over' 2 goals at 12 noon et on Friday. NOTE: I recommend playing this total at a slightly steeper price at 2 rather than the standard 2.25 being offered. Most books will allow you to play the alternate total of 2 priced around -145 at the time of writing. We saw a very uninspiring performance from Croatia - the 2016 World Cup runner-up - in its tournament-opening 1-0 loss to England (we won with England in that match). Here, I look for it to come out with an attacking mindset as it could certainly use the three points, already sitting three back of both aforementioned England and today's opponent, the Czech Republic following its impressive 2-0 victory over Scotland. While the Czechs managed to keep a clean sheet against Scotland it wasn't without some difficulty as the Scots generated a number of quality chances, ultimately firing 19 shots with four of them reaching target. I do think that Croatia boasts the finishing ability that Scotland lacks. Leading up to this tournament, Czech Republic had conceded at least a goal in five consecutive matches. In my analysis of my play in support of the Czechs and the 'over' in their last match I pointed to their dynamic scoring ability led by striker Patrik Schick. Right on cue, he delivered two goals in their opener, including what will likely go down as the goal of the tournament. I would certainly expect him to remain dangerous here as the Czechs should be eager to proceed forward knowing that three points would secure their place in the knockout stage. It's worth noting that we've seen one side score at least two goals in five of the six 'matchday two' contests at this tournament so far. It's not really until 'matchday three' that we look to take strong 'under' positions. With earning at least a point imperative for both sides, and neither all that likely to deliver a clean sheet, we'll look for some goals on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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06-17-21 | Brewers v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. With the Rockies coming off consecutive high-scoring wins over the Padres to complete an improbable series sweep here at Coors Field, I look for a much different story to unfold on Thursday. The Brewers will send Brandon Woodruff to the hill for the opener of this series. He's been phenomenal on the road this season, posting a minuscule 0.67 ERA and 0.57 WHIP in six starts this season. We shouldn't need much help from the Brewers bullpen given Woodruff averages just shy of seven innings per start on the road, but it's worth noting that it has been reliable away from home, posting a collective 3.51 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. In night games this season, the Brewers 'pen has recorded a 3.71 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with nine converted saves compared to only three blown. German Marquez will counter for Colorado. He's posted a strong home-road dichotomy as usual, recording a 3.99 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in nine home starts with the Rockies winning seven of those games. Note that Marquez has worked at least six innings in six of his last seven starts. The Colorado bullpen is certainly a concern here although the Brewers aren't exactly an explosive offensive club, averaging just 3.5 runs per game on .203 hitting at night this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-17-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | 2-1 | Win | 119 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in Game 1 of this series before switching gears and backing the Lightning in Game 2. Here, I'll go back to the well with the 'under' as the scene shifts to Long Island for Game 3 on Thursday night. The Islanders aren't going to win many games trying to run and gun with the Lightning in this series. Tampa Bay is simply too deep and explosive offensively for the Isles to last very long playing the way they did in Game 2. Penalties obviously played a role in that setback as well. I expect to see a much cleaner performance from the Isles back home if nothing else. Note that the Islanders have allowed just 2.1 goals per game on home ice this season. The 'under' has gone 12-4 with New York revenging a loss where their opponents scored four goals or more this season, as is the case here, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.2 goals. The 'under' is also 15-5 with the Isles playing at home off a road loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of just 4.6 goals. On the flip side, the Lightning have posted a 1-8 o/u record when playing on the road off a home win this season. That situation has produced an average total of just 4.5 goals. These two teams are somewhat familiar with one another having faced off in the Eastern Conference Final in last year's 'bubble' playoffs. Note that the 'under' has cashed in seven of the last 11 meetings in this series. While we'd like to be dealing with a '5.5' here, I do like the plus money return being offered at '5' here in what I would expect to be a 'first to three wins' type of affair. Take the under (10*). |
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06-17-21 | North Macedonia v. Ukraine OVER 2.5 | 1-2 | Win | 109 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Ukraine and North Macedonia at 9 am et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring tournament openers and I expect a similar story to unfold on Thursday. With both sides coming up empty point-wise on matchday one of this tournament, we can expect both to come out with an attacking mindset as they look to take all three points from this contest. For Ukraine, this is its most winnable match of the three and it should bring plenty of confidence after rallying from a 2-0 deficit only to fall 3-2 against the mighty Netherlands last time out. If you've followed my plays regularly, you know that I'm high on the Ukraine attack led by Yarmolenko, Yaremchuk and Zinchenko. As we saw against the Dutch, the Blue and Yellow are capable of scoring against the best of them and should feast in this favorable matchup against North Macedonia - the lowest-ranked team in the tournament. With all of that being said, I do think there's a goal out there for North Macedonia in this contest. They managed to find the back of the net once against Austria, albeit on a defensive miscue in the penalty area. As good as Ukraine is up front, it is vulnerable in the back and North Macedonia hasn't been held off the scoresheet entirely since last November, when it suffered a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Armenia. Take the over 2.5 goals (9*). |
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06-16-21 | Mercury v. Sparks UNDER 154.5 | 80-85 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Wednesday. This total has dropped from its opener and it's the right move in my opinion. Phoenix has now lost three games in a row but has scored over 80 points in four of its last six contests. The Mercury don't have much of a margin for error offensively, however, with Brittney Griner and Skylar Diggins-Smith providing the bulk of their production. Few teams get less scoring off the bench. If there's a night where Diggins-Smith goes cold or Griner gets into foul trouble, the Mercury just aren't going to put up many points. Los Angeles is in tough right now, missing a number of key players including the Ogwumike sisters and now Te'a Cooper as well due to a one-game suspension. The Sparks have been held to 71 points or less in three straight games, shooting no better than 36.8% from the field in any of those contests. If they're going to turn things around they'll need to step up their defensively play after allowing 80+ points in consecutive games. Note that in their last two home games (both victories) they allowed an identical 63 points and held the opposition to 34.3% and 33.9% shooting. Take the under (9*). |
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06-16-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 223.5 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in Game 4 of this series on Monday night but I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as the series shifts back to Philadelphia for Game 5. The Hawks aren't going to slow down the 76ers offense here in Philadelphia. That's a feat they've yet to accomplish in four previous tries this season, allowing 127, 127, 124 and 118 points. I fully expect to see them come out with an attacking mindset from the opening tip on Wednesday as they look to take advantage of a somewhat depleted 76ers defense with Joel Embiid playing on a bad knee. Monday's miserable 36.6% shooting performance from Atlanta had more to do with poor shot selection than it did the 76ers defense as far as I'm concerned. Look for the Hawks to do a better job of knocking down their shots on Wednesday night. For the 76ers this is obviously a critical contest as they look to avoid being pushed to the brink of elimination with the series going back to Atlanta for Game 6. Note that the Hawks have been a considerably weaker defensive team on the road compared to at home this season, allowing 112.9 points per game on north of 47% shooting. For their part, the 76ers check in averaging over 118 points per game here at home. Note that the 'over' has gone 14-5 with the 76ers playing at home after winning two of their last three games this season with those contests averaging a total of 229.7 points. The 'over' is also 15-5 with Philadelphia coming off a loss by six points or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 226.3 points over the last two seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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06-16-21 | Angels v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive relatively high-scoring games between these two teams to open this series and I expect more of the same on Wednesday afternoon. Griffin Canning will take the ball for the Angels. He has struggled on the road this season, posting a 5.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in five starts with three of those games finding their way 'over' the total. Worse still, he has recorded an 8.81 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in four daytime starts. After struggling against Canning in the 2019 season, the A's had a lot more success against him last year, facing him three times and scoring 10 earned runs in just 13 1/3 innings. With Canning averaging less than five innings per start this season we should see plenty of the Angels below-average and overworked bullpen, which allowed another three earned runs in last night's loss. L.A.'s 'pen has recorded a collective 5.15 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in day games this season. Left-hander Cole Irvin will counter for Oakland. The Angels will be getting their second look at him this season after scoring four earned runs off of him over six innings in a game back on May 30th. Of course, the Angels have been a far better hitting team against southpaw starters this season, hitting .275 and averaging 5.9 runs per game. Irvin has been good but certainly not great at home this season, posting a 4.30 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He's averaging right around 5 2/3 innings per start here in 2021. While the A's bullpen has been terrific in terms of converted save percentage here at home (12 saves converted compared to two blown), they will give up some runs. They allowed two earned runs in two frames in last night's 6-4 victory and now own a 4.54 ERA and 1.31 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-16-21 | Switzerland v. Italy UNDER 2.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Italy and Switzerland at 3 pm et on Wednesday. |
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06-15-21 | Sky v. Lynx OVER 159 | 105-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The return of Candace Parker has been just the spark the Sky needed to get back on track following a seven-game losing streak, reeling off back-to-back wins over the Indiana Fever - scoring 92 and 83 points in the process. The 'over' has now cashed in each of their last two games after the 'under' had hit in four of their last five. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair here. Minnesota has started rolling following a tough start to the season. The Lynx have won four of their last five games and enter Tuesday's contest having scored 80 points or more in four straight games. Like Chicago, Minnesota also dealt with injury issues earlier in the season The return of Napheesa Collier has certainly helped their cause in recent weeks. With that being said, Collier is coming off a 4-of-14 shooting effort in Saturday's win over the Sparks. Kayla McBride was also off the mark in that one, connecting on just 1-of-6 field goal attempts. Here, I look for both to bounce back and pace the Lynx offense. The Lynx benefited greatly from catching the Sparks without the Ogwumike sisters on Saturday, holding Los Angeles to 64 points on 32.9% shooting in that blowout win (we won with the Lynx on that night). Here, I expect them to have their hands full against a rejuvenated Sky squad led by Candace Parker. Both of last year's meetings between these two teams found their way 'over' the total. Expect a similar story to unfold on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 217 | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Brooklyn at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. We've seen an incredible swing in this total since the start of this series, largely due to the injuries to Nets superstars James Harden and Kyrie Irving, but also due to the general low-scoring nature of the series so far. Here, I look for a different story to unfold as far as the scoring output goes and feel the total is moving in the wrong direction. It's certainly worth noting that the Bucks defense is not the same on the road as it has been at home this season. They check in allowing 114.5 points per game on just shy of 46% shooting away from home this season with their games averaging 232.7 total points. While the Nets aren't the same explosive offensive team with only one of the 'big three', it's not as if they're completely devoid of talent. If anything Kevin Durant will take this as a challenge and we know he's capable of taking over a game all on his own. Now that they've evened this series at two games apiece and with the Nets suddenly missing two of their best three players, I expect the Bucks to carry an attacking mindset into this Game 5 matchup in Brooklyn. We haven't seen much of a drop-off in production from the Bucks offensively on the road this season, even if they did turn in an absolutely dreadful performance the last time they played here in Game 2. Coming off a series-high tying 107-point effort in Game 4 and knowing there is so much room for improvement (they've shot 44.6% or worse in all four games in this series), I believe a Bucks offensive breakout is imminent at this point. Note that the 'over' is 12-4 with the Bucks coming off a double-digit home win this season with those games totaling an average of 237.2 points. The 'over' is also 13-4 with the Nets coming off an upset loss as a road favorite over the last two seasons, with those contests reaching an average total of 238 points. Take the over (10*). |
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06-15-21 | Marlins v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in Marlins ace Trevor Rogers' most recent start last week against the Rockies as that game totaled 15 runs. In fact, that was the third time in Rogers' last four outings that the game reached exactly 15 total runs. While I'm not bold enough to call for that level of offensive production here, I do expect this one to find its way 'over' the very reasonable total. Rogers has been terrific this season. There's really no reason to knock him here. However, I will point out that the Cardinals did get a look at Rogers back in April and managed to chase him after just four innings, scoring three runs, two of them earned, on two hits and four walks. Note that St. Louis is 9-4 against left-handed starters this season, averaging 4.6 runs per game - well north of their season average. I'll also point out that Rogers will be starting on just four days' rest for a second straight time on Tuesday. Behind Rogers is an overworked Marlins bullpen that has blown eight saves compared to only six converted on the road this season. I say overworked because the Marlins haven't had a single day off here in June. Kwang-Hyun Kim will take the ball for the Cardinals. He was just activated off the I.L. after dealing with a back injury. While Kim got off to a solid start this season, it seems that as more teams get a look at him, he has started to struggle, posting a 6.58 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over his last three starts. His last two trips to the hill have resulted in 11 and 10 total runs. In fact, the 'over' is 6-2-1 in his nine starts overall this season. With Kim averaging just a shade over 4 2/3 innings per start this season and given the fact he's returning from the I.L., we should see plenty of the Cards bullpen on Tuesday. While they've posted a tremendous save conversion rate here at home (13 saves converted with only one blown), the rest of their numbers have been pretty pedestrian, posting a collective 4.34 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. In night games this season, the Cards 'pen has recorded a 4.89 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Take the over (10*). |
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06-15-21 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This series opens with a sneaky-good pitching matchup on Tuesday night as the Rangers send Kyle Gibson to the hill against Lance McCullers Jr. Gibson got lit up in his first start of the season but he's been terrific ever since. He checks in sporting a 3.41 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in six road starts this season. The Astros have had four previous looks at Gibson since the start of last season but they've yet to figure him out, managing to score just three earned runs off of him over 28 innings. While the Rangers awful bullpen is a concern, that concern is somewhat muted by the fact that Gibson averages a solid six innings per start and with the Astros likely to be out in front in the latter stages of this game, we may only have to deal with a couple of innings from the Texas 'pen. Lance McCullers Jr. will counter for Houston. He has posted a 3.14 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in five home starts this season and brings excellent current form into this start having recorded a 1.89 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over his last three outings. In three games against McCullers since the start of last season, the Rangers have managed to score just three earned runs in 15 innings. Working behind McCullers is an Astros bullpen that has has been solid at home, posting a collective 3.99 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with seven saves converted and only three blown. Take the under (10*). |
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06-15-21 | Portugal v. Hungary OVER 2.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Portugal and Hungary at 12 noon et on Tuesday. This is a critical match for both sides - in fact, all three matches will be critical for all four squads in this very difficult group that also includes mighty France and Germany. With that in mind, I fully expect Portugal to come out with an attacking mindset as it looks to take all three points against Hungary on Tuesday. Not to be outdone, Hungary also believes it has a good shot at advancing in this tournament and why not as it enters this contest riding an 11-match unbeaten streak. I think it's important not to get too carried away by Hungary's two recent international friendly results - a sleepy 1-0 victory over Cyprus before settle for a 0-0 draw in a rather uneventful affair against the Republic of Ireland last week. This isn't a team without creativity at the opposing end of the pitch, having scored a whopping 10 goals in three World Cup 2022 Qualifying matches back in March, including an impressive 3-3 draw against Poland. The duo of Sallai and Szalai up front are certainly capable of breaking through for at least one marker against a Portugal defense that isn't quite what it once was, especially with Joao Cancelo sidelined due to a positive Covid test. Of course, Portugal is more than able to overcome any sort of adversity here with a brilliant attack led by Cristiano Ronaldo and perhaps soon to become household name Diogo Jota. Portugal fielded its 'A' squad in a friendly match against Israel last week (we won with Portugal -1.5 in that contest) and while it got off to a bit of a slow start it eventually 10 shots on target, scoring four goals including a brace from Bruno Fernandes. With Spain and Sweden's 0-0 draw in yesterday's final match, not to mention Portugal's recent 0-0 draw with Spain (we won with Portugal +0.5 goals in that match) fresh in the minds of many bettors, I think some are hesitant to play the 'over' in this one. That's fine with us as it offers us a generous return with a very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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06-14-21 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 226 | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The 76ers have absolutely shot the lights out in this series, shooting 52.9% or better from the field in all three games. They've now shot better than 51% in four consecutive games, one game shy of their longest such streak of the season. They posted that five-game streak back in the first two weeks of March but that stretch included games against the likes of the Pacers, Bulls, Wizards and Spurs. The Hawks have actually been a solid defensive team, particularly at home where they allow 108.8 points per game on 45.1% shooting on the season. Despite the 'over' result in Game 3, the 'under' remains a profitable 21-17-1 in their 39 home games this season. Note that the 'under' checks in 8-1 with the Hawks playing at home off two or more consecutive ATS losses this season, with those games averaging just 212.5 total points. The 76ers have now allowed 100 or more points in six straight games, their longest such streak since April 14th to 24th. In their next game following that previous six-game streak they gave up only 90 points in a win over Oklahoma City. That game totaled just 211 points, staying comfortably 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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06-14-21 | Czech Republic v. Scotland OVER 2 | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2 goals between Scotland and the Czech Republic at 9 am et on Monday. |
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06-13-21 | Rangers v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. We keep seeing low posted totals in games starter by Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler and the 'over' has now gone 6-2 over his last eight outings. I look for that trend to continue on Sunday after these two teams took turns beating each other up over the last two nights. Dane Dunning will take the ball for the Rangers. To say he's been terrible on the road would be an understatement. He has posted a 7.20 ERA and 1.80 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in four of his six outings away from home. With Dunning averaging just over four innings per start on the road, we should see plenty of a Texas bullpen that has had a tough time getting outs on the road this season, posting a collective 5.63 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. In 86 1/3 innings worked in day games, the Rangers have managed to record just three saves while blowing three other opportunities. Walker Buehler is an outstanding pitcher, there's no reason to really knock him here. However, his 12 previous starts this season have resulted in 11, 1, 17, 5, 11, 11, 10, 4, 9, 13, 17 and 8 total runs, good for an average of 9.75 runs per contest. Buehler averages between six and seven innings per start here at home. While the Dodgers bullpen has been terrific for the most part this season, they have struggled a bit in day games, recording a collective 4.38 ERA and 1.48 WHIP with four blown saves compared to six converted. Take the over (10*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 219 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
07-17-21 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
07-17-21 | Giants v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
07-16-21 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
07-16-21 | Costa Rica v. Suriname UNDER 3 | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
07-16-21 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
07-14-21 | El Salvador v. Trinidad & Tobago UNDER 2 | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
07-13-21 | Grenada v. Honduras UNDER 3 | 0-4 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
07-13-21 | Panama v. Qatar OVER 2 | 3-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
07-11-21 | Lynx v. Sparks OVER 158 | 86-61 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
07-11-21 | England v. Italy UNDER 2 | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
07-11-21 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
07-10-21 | Royals v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
07-10-21 | Phillies v. Red Sox OVER 11 | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
07-09-21 | Lynx v. Aces UNDER 174 | 77-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
07-09-21 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 9 | 2-4 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
07-09-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | 5-10 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
07-08-21 | Nationals v. Padres UNDER 7 | 8-9 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 220 | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
07-07-21 | Wings v. Lynx UNDER 169.5 | Top | 79-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
07-07-21 | Denmark v. England OVER 2 | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
07-06-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
07-06-21 | A's v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 6-9 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
07-06-21 | Spain v. Italy UNDER 2.25 | 1-1 | Win | 50 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
07-05-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
07-05-21 | Reds v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -118 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
07-05-21 | Dodgers v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
07-04-21 | Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
07-04-21 | Dream v. Aces OVER 171.5 | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
07-04-21 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
07-04-21 | Twins v. Royals OVER 10 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
07-04-21 | Brewers v. Pirates UNDER 8 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
07-03-21 | Lynx v. Mercury UNDER 163 | 99-68 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 216.5 | 118-107 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
07-03-21 | Dodgers v. Nationals UNDER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
07-02-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens OVER 5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
07-02-21 | Twins v. Royals OVER 10 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
07-02-21 | Sky v. Wings UNDER 165.5 | Top | 91-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
07-02-21 | Astros v. Indians OVER 9 | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
07-02-21 | Spain v. Switzerland UNDER 2.5 | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
07-01-21 | Padres v. Reds UNDER 9 | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
07-01-21 | Mariners v. Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
06-30-21 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8 | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
06-30-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning UNDER 5 | 1-3 | Win | 103 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
06-30-21 | Sky v. Wings OVER 163 | 91-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
06-30-21 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 218.5 | 88-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
06-29-21 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
06-29-21 | Liberty v. Dream UNDER 170.5 | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
06-29-21 | Germany v. England UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
06-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns OVER 214 | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
06-28-21 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 7 | Top | 4-14 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
06-28-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning OVER 5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
06-28-21 | Spain v. Croatia UNDER 2.5 | 3-3 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 224 | 113-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
06-27-21 | Sparks v. Mercury OVER 155.5 | 79-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
06-27-21 | Portugal v. Belgium UNDER 2.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 19 m | Show | |
06-27-21 | Nationals v. Marlins UNDER 6.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
06-26-21 | Austria v. Italy OVER 2.5 | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
06-26-21 | Mystics v. Wings OVER 164.5 | 74-85 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 225.5 | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
06-25-21 | Mariners v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 | 9-3 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
06-25-21 | Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5 | 0-1 | Win | 115 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
06-24-21 | Wings v. Fever OVER 162 | Top | 89-64 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
06-24-21 | Royals v. Yankees UNDER 10 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
06-23-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
06-23-21 | Blue Jays v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 3-1 | Win | 104 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
06-23-21 | Lynx v. Dream UNDER 168 | 87-85 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
06-23-21 | Poland v. Sweden UNDER 2.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -150 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
06-22-21 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
06-22-21 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 7.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
06-22-21 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights OVER 5 | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
06-22-21 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224 | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
06-22-21 | England v. Czech Republic UNDER 2.25 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
06-21-21 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
06-21-21 | Netherlands v. North Macedonia OVER 3 | 3-0 | Push | 0 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 216 | 103-96 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
06-20-21 | White Sox v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 2-8 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
06-20-21 | Wales v. Italy UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 215 | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
06-19-21 | Lightning v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
06-18-21 | Mercury v. Sparks UNDER 157.5 | Top | 80-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
06-18-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens OVER 5 | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
06-18-21 | A's v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
06-18-21 | Czech Republic v. Croatia OVER 2.25 | 1-1 | Loss | -50 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
06-17-21 | Brewers v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
06-17-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | 2-1 | Win | 119 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
06-17-21 | North Macedonia v. Ukraine OVER 2.5 | 1-2 | Win | 109 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
06-16-21 | Mercury v. Sparks UNDER 154.5 | 80-85 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
06-16-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 223.5 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
06-16-21 | Angels v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
06-16-21 | Switzerland v. Italy UNDER 2.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
06-15-21 | Sky v. Lynx OVER 159 | 105-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 217 | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
06-15-21 | Marlins v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
06-15-21 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
06-15-21 | Portugal v. Hungary OVER 2.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
06-14-21 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 226 | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
06-14-21 | Czech Republic v. Scotland OVER 2 | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
06-13-21 | Rangers v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |