Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-03-23 | Jets v. Browns OVER 33.5 | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Cleveland at 8 pm et on Thursday. We're working with at typically low total for this year's Hall of Fame Game in Canton on Thursday - no surprise at all given neither team is expected to give their starters any sort of run in this contest. I'm confident both offenses can move the football and ultimately put some points on the board though. The Jets will give Zach Wilson the start at quarterback but we're more likely to see plenty of Tim Boyle and Chris Streveler, with the latter proving to be a big-time preseason producer last year (five touchdowns and one interception). Kellen Mond will start for Cleveland and likely play the better part of the first half. He's got a lot to prove after getting cut by the Vikings prior to last season. Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson will take over in the second half and I'm confident the former UCLA star can make some plays against what is likely to be Jets second and third-string defensive units. Dual-threat quarterbacks have long enjoyed considerable preseason success and Thompson-Robinson should be next in line for that role for Cleveland. We don't need anything close to resembling a shootout to get 'over' this total. Remember, last year's Hall of Fame Game saw the Jaguars produce only 11 points and that contest still found its way 'over'. Take the over (8*). |
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08-02-23 | Padres v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | 11-1 | Push | 0 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. We're working with a typically high posted total in the finale of this three-game series on Wednesday afternoon. I believe it will prove too high. Padres starter Joe Musgrove is as consistent as they come having posted a 3.54 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 17 starts covering 97 1/3 innings this season. He struggled in a couple of starts against the Rockies last season but will facing a much different looking lineup this time around. Note that this will be his first outing against Colorado this year and he still owns a career 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in eight previous starts in this matchup. Kyle Freeland will counter for the Rockies. He should be happy to be facing the Padres, noting that he's held them to just one earned run in 11 innings in two previous starts against them this season. Freeland has been a much better pitcher in the daytime this year, logging a 3.40 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in nine afternoon outings. Of course, the Rockies bullpen is always a concern but the Padres have excelled at the back-end of games lately, with their 'pen sporting a collective 2.01 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over the last seven contests (entering last night's game). Take the under (8*). |
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07-31-23 | Red Sox v. Mariners OVER 8 | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Red Sox have seen each of their last six games stay 'under' the total while the Mariners are coming off a three-game series in Arizona in which all three contests played to the 'under' as well. I look for a different story to unfold on Monday. Nick Pivetta will get his first start since May for Boston. The veteran right-hander has proven effective pitching in long relief and owns a 4.14 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 81 innings of work this season. With that said, I do think there's regression on the way noting that he has held opposing hitters to just 6.8 hits per nine innings this season. That's a career-low by a considerable margin. You would have to go back to 2020 to find the last time he allowed fewer than 8.0 hits per nine innings. George Kirby will counter for Seattle. He has allowed at least five earned runs in four of his last 11 starts and that's notable as he had done so just once over his previous 12 outings. Perhaps we're seeing signs of a young starter hitting the wall as he approaches his career high in innings pitched and we have yet to flip the calendar page over to August. Kirby did get the better of the Red Sox in a 10-1 Mariners victory at Fenway Park earlier this season. However, Boston has plated nine earned runs in 16 2/3 innings in three looks at Kirby since the start of last season. His three career starts against Boston have totalled 18, 13 and 12 runs. The Red Sox bullpen has been taxed lately and yesterday's extra innings affair in San Francisco didn't help matters. The Mariners relief corps enters this series in much better shape but I'm confident the Boston bats can do enough damage against Kirby to help this total along. Take the over (8*). |
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07-30-23 | Calgary v. Montreal OVER 47.5 | 18-25 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Montreal at 7 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams enter Sunday's contest riding two-game 'over' streaks and I anticipate a similar result here. Calgary has posted a perfect 7-0 'over' record when coming off a non-conference game over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 61.7 points. The Als, despite having lost three games in a row, did quietly get their offense back on track before their bye week, scoring 27 points in a losing effort against Toronto. Here, they'll face a Stamps defense that is currently dealing with a number of key injuries in their secondary. In four matchups in this series going back to 2019, Montreal has produced 40, 21, 22 and 27 points. Calgary has scored 28 or more points in three of the last four meetings. Take the over (8*). |
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07-29-23 | Mariners v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams last night, despite a high-scoring start as the Mariners jumped ahead 4-0 in the first frame and cruised to a 5-2 victory. I think we'll see the Diamondbacks bounce back and help the total along on Saturday as they send Brandon Pfaadt to the hill against Bryan Woo. Pfaadt is a highly-touted prospect and has enjoyed some success at the minor league level. That hasn't translated to success in the majors, however, as he checks in sporting a 7.64 FIP and 1.64 WHIP in seven starts spanning 31 2/3 innings. He hasn't been able to keep the ball in the yard, allowing a whopping 3.4 home runs per nine innings. It's been a similar story for Mariners starter Bryan Woo lately. He's been tagged for four home runs in his last two outings. It seems the book may be out on Woo following a solid stretch as he has allowed 10 earned runs on 12 hits and four walks over his last two starts covering a span of 9 1/3 innings. Neither bullpen has been all that impressive. In the case of the D'Backs, their 'pen has logged an 8.37 ERA and 1.90 WHIP over the last seven games and has converted just 10 saves while blowing eight at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-29-23 | Saskatchewan v. Toronto OVER 47.5 | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Saskatchewan and Toronto at 4 pm et on Saturday. Last year's Touchdown Atlantic game featured this same matchup with Toronto prevailing by a 30-24 score on a late pick-six. We're working with a slightly higher posted total than we saw in last year's game but I don't think enough of an adjustment has been made. The Roughriders are coming off a miserable offensive showing last week, dropping a 19-9 decision on the road against arguably the league's best defense in B.C. That was Mason Fine's first start for the team this season after Trevor Harris went down to injury. The good news is, Fine threw for just shy of 300 yards and is in his third year with the Riders. It's time for him to step up and show off his arm, keeping in mind he ran a high-powered offense effectively in his days with North Texas in the college ranks. The Argonauts are missing a number of key cogs on the defensive side of the football. That didn't hurt them last week as they benefited from facing a punchless Tiger-Cats offense that was down to its third-string quarterback. On the flip side, Toronto's offense excelled once again, at one point scoring three touchdowns in an 18-minute stretch in the first half. The biggest question here is probably whether Saskatchewan can do its part offensively to help this total along. Note that the Riders have shown a solid scoring floor in this particular matchup, putting up at least 21 points in 11 consecutive meetings. Take the over (10*). |
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07-27-23 | Guardians v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring affairs on Wednesday, albeit with much different outcomes as the Guardians defeated the Royals 8-3 while the White Sox blew a big lead in a 10-7 loss to the Cubs. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as Cleveland sends impressive rookie Tanner Bibee to the hill against Chicago's ace Dylan Cease. Bibee checks in sporting a 3.52 FIP and 1.19 WHIP on the season, allowing just 103-of-334 batters he has faced to reach base. After a bit of a rocky start to his big league career he has been baffling opposing hitters lately, giving up just 17 hits and one home run over his last five starts spanning 29 2/3 innings of work. Dylan Cease has been similarly effectively lately. He has held his last two opponents to just two earned runs on six hits over 11 innings. Over his last nine outings he has allowed only 43 hits and four home runs in 51 innings of work. Going back to 2021, Cease has been incredibly consistent recording FIP's of 3.41, 3.10 and 3.63 so far in 2023. Neither bullpen has been all that reliable lately, or this season for that matter. With that being said, both of tonight's starters have shown the ability to work effectively deep into ball games (Bibee has lasted at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts and Cease has done so in eight of his last nine outings), somewhat mitigating that concern. Take the under (10*). |
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07-27-23 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | 10-3 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are scoring runs in bunches right now but I look for tonight's starting pitching matchup to help reverse that trend. Justin Steele will get the start for the visiting Cubs. He continues to impress having recorded a 2.97 FIP and 1.11 WHIP this season including a 2.93 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on the road. Familiarity hasn't led to success for the Cards bats against the left-hander as he has limited St. Louis to six earned runs over 18 1/3 innings in three outings in this matchup this season. Behind Steele is a Cubs bullpen that did the job again last night after entering that game sporting a collective 3.29 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over the last seven contests. Miles Mikolas will counter for the Cardinals. If there's been one constant in his big league career, it has been his success against the Cubs bats here at home. In eight previous outings against Chicago in St. Louis, Mikolas has allowed just eight earned runs in 50 innings of work. While there have been a few rough patches along the way, Mikolas checks in with a respectable 3.89 FIP and 1.31 WHIP on the campaign. The less said about the Cardinals bullpen the better but I do think this total has been set high enough that any late inning pitching concerns from St. Louis are manageable. Take the under (8*). |
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07-26-23 | Braves v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Off a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams last night (eight total runs), we'll call for a higher-scoring contest in Wednesday's rematch at Fenway Park. Note that the 'under' has now cashed in each of Atlanta's last three games. We haven't see the Braves post a four-game 'under' streak since May 30th to June 3rd. In a similar vein, the Red Sox are coming off consecutive 'under' results. We haven't seen three straight games involving Boston stay 'under' the total since June 28th to 30th. The 'under' has also cashed in two straight meetings in this series - the first time that's occurred over the last 11 matchups going back to 2021. The Braves bats are in line for a bounce-back performance here as they see Red Sox starter Brayan Bello for the second time this season. Also note that Boston's bullpen has been severely overworked lately, logging a collective 41 innings over the last seven games. The Red Sox will face a tough test at the plate against Braves ace Spencer Strider but I'm confident they can at least do enough to help this total along, noting that they check in averaging 5.7 runs per game at home this season and have plated at least four runs in 14 of their last 15 contests overall. Take the over (8*). |
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07-23-23 | Ottawa v. Calgary OVER 44.5 | 43-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Calgary at 7 pm et on Sunday. The RedBlacks offense found its spark, albeit late in last week's incredible 31-28 overtime victory against Winnipeg. QB Dustin Crum has now enjoyed back-to-back breakout performances and if you follow the CFL regularly, you know that quarterbacks can come out of seemingly nowhere to take over an offense - especially dual-threat types like Crum. The Stampeders have endured an early season slump from QB Jake Maier and check in just 2-3 on the campaign. They did produce a thrilling 33-31 win over the Riders in Saskatchewan last Saturday, however, and I look for them to build off that performance here. It is worth mentioning that both teams are dealing with a number of key injuries on the defensive side of the football. Note that the 'under' has cashed in the last four meetings in this series (including a 26-15 result in favor of Calgary earlier this season) - the longest such streak since way back in 2002-03. Here, we'll note that the Stamps have tended to get involved in barn-burners as a home favorite of a touchdown or less, with that situation producing an average total of just 50.5 points (and a point difference of just 0.5 points in their favor) over the last three seasons (13-game sample size). Take the over (8*). |
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07-22-23 | Dodgers v. Rangers UNDER 9 | 16-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Texas at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon. Rookie Bobby Miller has impressed in limited action for the Dodgers this season, posting a 3.59 FIP and 1.19 WHIP in 48 2/3 innings of work. While the Dodgers did drop his most recent start by a 2-1 score against the Mets in New York, he allowed just one earned run over 4 2/3 innings. In fact, in four road appearances this season, Miller owns a 2.11 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Dane Dunning will counter for Texas. He is having a renaissance season of sorts, recording a 3.90 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in 21 appearances spanning 99 innings. Dunning didn't fare well in his lone previous start against the Dodgers but that came back in 2021, when he logged a 1.44 WHIP in 117 2/3 innings. The two bullpens in this matchup have been terrific lately. Entering last night's action the Dodgers 'pen had recorded a collective 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over the last seven games while the Rangers relief corps had logged a 3.57 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). |
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07-21-23 | Giants v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. While the Giants have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total following an 11-10 slugfest in Cincinnati on Tuesday, the Nationals check in riding a six-game 'over' streak. I expect the latter to continue as San Francisco sends Alex Wood to the hill against Jake Irvin of the Nationals on Friday. Take a look up and down the Nats' lineup right now and you'll see a pretty dangerous group of hitters. I was of the opinion that Washington had a lineup built for Nationals Park entering this season but it hasn't worked out that way as the Nats' have actually produced far more offense on the road. With that being said, they do average 4.7 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching and they'll have the opportunity to face soft-tossing southpaw Alex Wood on Friday. Wood checks in sporting a 4.78 FIP and 1.53 WHIP on the season, allowing a whopping 88-of-243 batters he has faced to reach base. He's had a tough time settling in due to injuries and here will be starting on just four days' rest after making his first start since June last Sunday. Wood isn't fooling many opposing hitters this season and has topped out at four strikeouts over his last four starts. Jake Irvin remains in the Nats' starting rotation out of necessity only as he has logged a 5.25 FIP and 1.49 WHIP in 13 starts this season. Like Wood, Irvin has put far too many men on base, allowing 98-of-276 batters he has faced aboard. Perhaps a bigger issue for Washington right now is its sagging bullpen. Nationals relievers have combined to record an 11.92 ERA and 2.18 WHIP over the last seven games and are down a key arm in closer Hunter Harvey. While the Giants 'pen has held up well lately, it hasn't had a day off since the All-Star break and certainly falls in the 'overworked' category having logged well north of 400 innings collectively this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-20-23 | Twins v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Seattle at 3:40 pm et on Thursday. The first three games in this series have all gone 'over' the total with a two-run home run in the ninth inning doing the trick for the Twins last night. I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's series-finale as Minnesota sends Pablo Lopez to the hill against George Kirby of the Mariners. Lopez is quietly having an All-Star season for the Twins, logging a 3.37 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. He did get rocked by the A's in his most recent outing. Strange things can happen when pitchers make their first start following the All-Star break and I'm willing to give Lopez a mulligan for that poor showing. George Kirby hasn't suffered any sort of sophomore slump this season, recording a 3.49 FIP and 1.07 WHIP. Like Lopez, Kirby was also an American League All-Star selection. As I've noted previously, these two bullpens are well-positioned down the stretch with both only recently having eclipsed the 300-inning mark. Take the under (8*). |
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07-19-23 | Twins v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive high-scoring games between these two teams to open this series but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Kenta Maeda will take the ball for the visiting Twins. While his overall numbers aren't anything special this season, he has been reasonably effective since returning from the I.L. in June, allowing six earned runs on only 15 hits over 20 innings of work. Note that he has certainly fared better on the road compared to at home this season, recording a 3.15 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in five starts away from home. Mariners ace Luis Castillo wasn't particularly sharp last time out against the Tigers but is just one start removed from allowing just one unearned run over seven innings in a tough assignment in Houston. Castillo has lived up to billing this season, logging a 3.93 FIP and 1.03 WHIP, recording a 2.78 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 12 home outings. The two bullpens remain well-positioned to succeed down the stretch with the Twins 'pen entering last night's action having logged just 312 1/3 innings collectively while the Mariners relief corps had worked only 307 2/3 innings. Seattle's 'pen did get roughed up last night but it's hard to fault a group that had recorded a collective 2.45 ERA and 0.77 WHIP over the previous seven games. Minnesota's relief corps entered last night's game sporting a 3.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP on the road this season. Take the under (8*). |
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07-19-23 | Yankees v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a pair of relatively low-scoring contests to open this series but I anticipate a much higher-scoring affair on Wednesday. The Angels are playing like a team that has nothing to lose right now, producing 5, 5, 13, 8, 4 and 5 runs over their last six games. They'll face a tough opponent in Yankees starter Carlos Rodon on Wednesday. While I do expect continued improvement from Rodon, he has given up six earned runs in 10 1/3 innings in his first two starts since returning from the I.L. On the flip side, I'm confident the Yankees bats will wake up against the Angels pitching staff here. Chase Silseth will get the start for Los Angeles. His big league returns have not been good since breaking in with the Halos last year. In 47 1/3 career innings, Silseth has recorded a 5.93 FIP and 1.59 WHIP. Behind him is an overworked Angels bullpen that has logged a collective 8.40 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in 30 innings over the last seven games. Speaking of struggling bullpens, the Yankees relief corps has posted a 6.43 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (8*). |
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07-18-23 | Twins v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Mariners took the series-opener by a 7-6 score. I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday as Minnesota hands the ball to Bailey Ober against impressive rookie Bryan Woo of the Mariners. Ober has given up just one earned run over 13 innings in his last two starts with those two contests totalling just one and four runs. He owns a terrific 3.39 FIP and 0.97 WHIP at the big league level this season, picking up right where he left off following an early stint in the minors where he baffled opposing hitters. Ober has allowed just 83 of the 321 batters he has faced to reach base. Bryan Woo has been similarly difficult to reach base against, albeit with a smaller sample size to consider. He has allowed only 37-of-141 batters to reach base, logging a 3.08 FIP and 1.07 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings of work. I like the way both bullpens are set up, noting that Twins relievers have worked a very reasonable 310 innings combined this season, posting a collective 3.63 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while the Mariners 'pen has logged only 303 2/3 innings while recording a 3.62 ERA and 1.27 WHIP (all numbers entering last night's action). Of course, the All-Star break isn't far in the rear-view mirror, helping both relief corps check in reasonably fresh this week. Take the under (10*). |
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07-15-23 | Red Sox v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as Boston rolled to an 8-3 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as the Red Sox send James Paxton to the hill against Marcus Stroman of the Cubs. Paxton is having a renaissance year of sorts, logging a 3.66 FIP and 0.98 WHIP in 10 starts spanning 56 innings of work (he had pitched just 1 1/3 innings over the last two seasons combined). Behind Paxton is a Red Sox bullpen that certainly needed the break as it had worked north of 40 innings collectively over the previous seven games. Still, the Red Sox 'pen owns a 3.80 ERA and 1.22 WHIP on the road this season. Marcus Stroman struggled in his last few starts prior to the break but has still posted a 3.41 FIP and 1.09 WHIP on the campaign. I look for him to bounce back here noting that he has recorded a terrific 2.91 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home this season. The Cubs bullpen had logged a collective 3.51 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at home this season entering last night's action. Take the under (10*). |
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07-14-23 | Padres v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | 8-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Friday. In any other year, this would appear to be a starting pitching mismatch as Yu Darvish has been a Cy Young Award contender four times previously in his career while Christopher Sanchez is a relative unknown for the Phillies. The shoe has been on the other foot this season, however, as Darvish has struggled to the tune of a 4.03 FIP and 1.27 WHIP. I do think he can use the second half of the season of a restart of sorts. He should be happy to see the Phillies as he owns a career 2.35 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in nine career starts against them. Sanchez has been terrific in five starts this season, logging a 3.56 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while allowing just 26-of-99 batters he has faced to reach base. Behind Sanchez is a Phillies bullpen that has been elite this season, posting a collective 3.75 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with 25 saves converted and only eight blown. The Padres bullpen hasn't been quite on the same level and struggled leading into the break. I do think that had something to do with their relief corps being overworked and the All-Star break should have served them well in that regard. Take the under (8*). |
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07-13-23 | Hamilton v. Edmonton Elks OVER 42.5 | Top | 37-29 | Win | 100 | 48 h 1 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Edmonton at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Edmonton Elks are off to an unsurprisingly awful start to the season, losers of five games in a row heading into Thursday's matchup with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. Edmonton could only muster 18 points in its last two games - both on the road - but I do think it made some progress offensively going back to QB Taylor Cornelius at quarterback in last week's ugly 12-11 defeat in Saskatchewan. In that contest, the Elks racked up 369 total yards, often moving the football down the field at will in what is usually a hostile environment in Regina. They ended up with little to show for it but I do think that changes back at home this week. Note that the last time we saw Edmonton play here it put up 31 points in a game that totalled 73 points against Toronto. It should be happy to see Hamilton noting that it has scored 23 and 29 points in two matchups between these two teams over the last two seasons. The Tiger-Cats scored only 21 points against a better-than-expected Ottawa defense last Saturday but did manage to make a late goal-line stand to earn their first win of the season. Note that Hamilton has displayed a rock solid scoring floor and a sky-high ceiling in this particular matchup in recent years, putting up at least 25 points in each of the last nine meetings while producing 38 points or more on three occasions over that stretch. The Elks are currently allowing a lofty 5.6 yards per rush and 8.7 yards per pass attempt this season. Hamilton hasn't been much better against the run, yielding 5.2 ypr and even worse against the pass, giving up a whopping 9.6 yppa. The 'under' is 4-1 in games involving Edmonton this season but it has yet to post three consecutive 'under' results. Meanwhile, the Ti-Cats have yet to record back-to-back 'under' results and are of course coming off an 'under' last week against Ottawa. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 24-11 with the Elks listed as a home underdog of three points or less, leading to an average total of 55.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
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07-08-23 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these division rivals last night but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon in San Francisco. Connor Seabold will inexplicably get another turn in the Rockies starting rotation. He enters this start sporting a 5.98 FIP and 1.47 WHIP in 66 2/3 innings of work this season. Seabold remains in the Rockies rotation out of necessity only and he's not likely to get a lot of support from the Colorado bullpen, noting that it has been as overworked as any relief corps in baseball this season, logging a collective 359 2/3 innings while posting a 4.91 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Over the last seven games those numbers rise to 6.67 and 1.59, respectively. Ryan Walker will get the start in an 'opener' role for the Giants. He's fared well in that role this season. But again, we're only talking about a cameo appearance. Like the Rockies relief corps, the Giants 'pen has also been overworked this season, logging north of 370 collective innings. San Francisco's relievers have held up reasonably well, but not so much lately as they've recorded a collective 5.58 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over the last seven games. The Giants offense in particular has struggled lately but I see this as an ideal bounce-back spot for both lineups on what should be a pleasant afternoon for hitters on Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
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07-07-23 | Cubs v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring affairs on Thursday but I look for a different story to unfold as they open a three-game Interleague series on Friday in the Bronx. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for the visiting Cubs. He's had a miserable season for the most part but there's been some reason for encouragement over his last couple of outings. In those two starts, he struck out 14 while walking only one in 10 innings of work (he had struck out only 13 batters combined over his previous four outings). He continues to be bitten by the long ball far too often but perhaps a return to his old stomping ground at Yankee Stadium can help his cause. Note that Taillon logged a 3.94 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while making the majority of his starts in the Bronx as a member of the Yankees last season. He's capable of stepping up at times on the road, noting that he held the Dodgers to five scoreless innings in April and the Padres to one run over 5 2/3 innings in June, with both of those starts coming away from home. New York isn't exactly tearing the cover off the ball right now and continues to strike out way too much while not walking nearly enough. Carlos Rodon will get his first start of the season for the Yankees following a lengthy stint on the injured list. Rodon looked no worse for wear in three minor league outings, posting a 0.84 ERA and 0.56 WHIP in 10 2/3 innings of work, allowing only 6-of-38 batters he faced to reach base. You have to figure he's happy to be facing the Cubs in his first start back in the majors, noting that he's gone against them three times since the start of the 2021 season, allowing just two earned runs on seven hits over 17 1/3 innings of work (striking out 31 and walking only three). While the Yankees bullpen has been overworked this season, they do boast plenty of depth in that department and have held up reasonably well, logging a 3.06 ERA and 1.21 WHIP here at home (entering last night's action). Yankees relievers have converted 25 saves while blowing only 11. Chicago's 'pen has struggled for the most part with the exception of a few key arms. Interestingly, Cubs relievers seem better suited to 'pitching from behind' (trailing in games) rather than holding down leads. On a positive note, the Chicago relief corps entered yesterday's action having yet to eclipse the 300-inning mark this season. Take the under (8*). |
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07-06-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Saskatchewan OVER 42.5 | Top | 11-12 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 19 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Saskatchewan at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Elks are coming off a low-scoring affair in Ottawa last week as they dropped a 26-7 decision in QB Jarrett Doege's first CFL start. They'll turn back to Taylor Cornelius at quarterback this week and it's the right move in my opinion after he had his best game of the season (before getting inexplicably benched in favor of Doege) two weeks ago against Toronto. Edmonton has indicated that it wants to simplify its offensive gameplan and play much faster this week. I think that means we'll see the Elks let Cornelius cut it loose in the passing game, noting that their ground attack has been virtually non-existent in the early going this season. This will be the second matchup between these two teams already this season after the Roughriders edged the Elks 17-13 in Edmonton back in Week 1. Note that the Elks have shown a much higher scoring floor here in Regina in recent years, scoring 24 and 26 points in two road matchups with the Riders going back to 2021 (those two games totalled 50 and 53 points). Of note, Taylor Cornelius was the Elks quarterback for both of those contests. The Elks defense has been alarmingly bad against the run this season, giving up 135, 119, 191 and 208 yards on the ground. I question how many second-and-long situations they'll be able to put the Riders in on Thursday. Saskatchewan QB Trevor Harris likely benefited most from the bye week as he was dealing with nagging hip and back injuries. Edmonton didn't give up a ton of yardage through the air in the last two games but that was largely game-script related as it dropped lopsided decisions against Toronto and Ottawa (the Argos and RedBlacks attempted only 23 and 20 passes, respectively). The Riders have aired it out 30+ times in all three games this season (their most recent contest did go go overtime). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 36-18 with the Elks seeking revenge for a loss in which they scored 14 points or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 55.0 points. The 'over' is also 11-2 with the Riders playing at home off a win by three points or less, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 53.6 points in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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07-05-23 | Mets v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between the Mets and Diamondbacks yesterday afternoon but I expect a different story to unfold in Game 2 of this series on Wednesday. Kodai Senga will take the ball for the visiting Mets. He owns a 4.02 FIP and 1.35 WHIP this season. Command has certainly been an issue as he has handed out 5.1 walks per nine innings. With that said, he's been able to limit the damage by allowing just 7.1 hits and 1.0 home run per nine innings, while striking out an average of 11.1 batters per nine innings. The D'Backs don't boast an overly patient lineup and I expect Senga to find some success as he faces them for the first time in his career. Tommy Henry will counter for Arizona. He got off to a rocky start this season but has since settled down, holding seven of his last 10 opponents to two earned runs or less. Henry has worked at least into the sixth inning in eight of his last 11 outings. Behind Henry is a D'Backs bullpen that entered yesterday's game in terrific position having worked just 20 innings over the last seven games, logging a 2.25 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. While the Mets 'pen entered this series sporting a collective ERA north of four, it owns a respectable 1.27 WHIP with 20 saves converted and only 11 blown. Take the under (8*). |
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07-04-23 | Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair to open this series last night as the Dodgers prevailed by a 5-2 score. I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Pirates send Luis Ortiz against impressive Dodgers rookie Emmet Sheehan. Ortiz had a cup of coffee at the big league level last season and pitched relatively well. In extended work this year, that hasn't been the case as he has logged a 5.68 FIP and 1.65 WHIP in 50 1/3 innings. While Ortiz is just one start removed from allowing only one earned run against the Marlins, performances like that have been few and far between. In his most recent outing, Ortiz labored through 4 2/3 innings against the Padres, allowing four earned runs on six hits, including two home runs, and three walks. He's giving up a whopping 10.4 hits and 4.5 walks per nine innings this season and that's a recipe for disaster against a loaded Dodgers lineup. To illustrate just how badly Ortiz has struggled, 84 of the 227 batters he has faced have managed to reach base. Behind Ortiz is a Pirates bullpen that has been effective lately but still owns a less than impressive 4.44 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). Emmet Sheehan will get his fourth career big league start for the Dodgers. Of note, he'll be starting on short rest (four days) for the first time on Tuesday. Sheehan has pitched well but has also had some good fortune, allowing just 5.3 hits per nine innings in a small sample size of just 17 innings. He wasn't particularly sharp in his most recent start in Colorado but his saving grace was the fact that he didn't issue a single walk (he allowed seven hits and three earned runs while striking out only five over five innings). Keep in mind, even at the Double-A level earlier this season, Sheehan issued an average of 3.9 walks per nine innings and he had handed out four free passes in his first 12 innings of work with the Dodgers this year. Los Angeles' bullpen has been overworked this season, logging a collective 318 2/3 innings (entering last night's contest). Dodgers relievers entered this series having posted a 3.94 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with only nine saves converted and six blown at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-03-23 | Braves v. Guardians UNDER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Sunday but I look for a different story to unfold as they open an Interleague series in Cleveland on Monday. Bryce Elder will get the start for the visiting Braves. He went through a bit of a rough stretch in early June but has since figured it out again, allowing just three earned runs in 19 innings of work over his last three outings. The 'under' has incredibly cashed in 10 of his last 11 trips to the hill. Elder enters this start sporting a 3.79 FIP and 1.13 WHIP on the season which is right in line with his career big league numbers. Rookie Gavin Williams will counter for Cleveland. He apparently shook off the nerves we saw in his first big league outing as he bounced back to hold the Royals to just one hit over seven shutout innings last time out. While we are talking about a small sample size, he has allowed just 10-of-46 batters he has faced to reach base. Keep in mind, Williams got the call to the bigs after logging a 2.39 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 60 1/3 innings spread across Double and Triple-A earlier this season. Both bullpens are in fairly good shape at this stage of the season with neither having eclipsed the 300-inning mark. The Braves 'pen has been lights out lately, sporting a collective 1.23 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over the last seven games. While the Guardians relief corps had a bit of a shaky weekend in Chicago, it does own a stellar 2.24 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only four blown here at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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07-01-23 | Rays v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Seattle at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair as the Rays rallied for a 15-4 victory in the opener of this series last night. I expect a much different story to unfold on Saturday as we have a premier starting pitching matchup between Tyler Glasnow and George Kirby. Glasnow was lights out in his minor league rehab stint earlier this season and has been good but not great since returning to the Rays starting rotation, posting a 3.84 FIP and 1.32 WHIP in 30 1/3 innings of work. I do think his best days are ahead of him and like the matchup here as he faces the Mariners for the first time in his career. Note that Glasnow is coming off a 12-strikeout performance last time out - his highest strikeout total since April of 2021 - clearly showing that he is rounding back into form. Since scoring 23 runs over a two-game stretch last week, the Mariners have gone into the tank again offensively, scoring four runs or less in five of their last six games. George Kirby is having a tremendous season, having logged a 3.27 FIP and 1.07 WHIP in 15 starts spanning 94 innings. While the Rays lineup is daunting for the best of pitchers, Kirby probably doesn't mind facing them after tossing six shutout innings of four-hit ball against them last season. Behind Kirby is a Mariners bullpen that has struggled lately, but should theoretically be in good shape right now having worked only 271 2/3 innings collectively this season. Mariners relievers have combined to record a 3.88 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season. The Rays 'pen has been as good as advertised lately, posting a collective 0.91 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over the last seven games. They've had to work 351 1/3 innings on the campaign but that's been more strategy-based than anything else given the nature of their starting rotation. Take the under (8*). |
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06-30-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Ottawa UNDER 42.5 | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Friday. It will be battle of backup (or worse) quarterbacks as two winless teams match up in Ottawa on Friday. Edmonton will turn to Jarrett Doege in place of an ineffective Taylor Cornelius. While Doege did throw a pair of touchdown passes in last Sunday's 43-31 home loss to the Argos, those two scores came in the game's final three minutes when the contest was already well in hand (Toronto was leading 43-17). Doege also threw a pick-six in that game and I tend to think the Elks will handle Doege's workload carefully here as they play on a short week, on the road no less. On the flip side, the Elks defense has actually held up well for stretches this season. Last week, they limited the Argos impressive offense to only one touchdown in the game's first 28 minutes before Toronto was able to open things up. Here, Edmonton will certainly be taking a step down in class after facing the Riders, Lions and Argos in its first three contests. The RedBlacks continue to run a patchwork offense with QB Jeremiah Masoli sidelined. Tyrie Adams will take over at quarterback after Nick Arbuckle was able to accomplish much in the first two games. Adams is known more for his running ability than his passing and I don't envision Ottawa really opening the playbook for him here. The RedBlacks have actually run the football only 25 times through the first two games but that's been largely game-script dependent as they've been trailing most of the way. Here, in a home favorite role, I expect them to use their ground attack more generously, especially when you consider the Elks have allowed more than 100 rushing yards in all three games this season. Defensively, the RedBlacks will be fresh having not played in over two weeks. They allowed just one offensive touchdown in the game's first 38 minutes against Calgary last time out. Credit Ottawa for allowing a grand total of just 41 points in its first two games against the Alouettes and Stempeders. The Elks and RedBlacks have met six times since 2019 and we've seen a fairly low scoring floor with three of those six contests totalling 32 points or less with a low-water mark of 28 points. Only one of those six games reached more than 43 points. Take the under (8*). |
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06-29-23 | Phillies v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Phillies delivered an 8-5 victory - their second in a row to open this series. I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday as Philadelphia sends Taijuan Walker to the hill against Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs. Walker has turned things around after a shaky start to the season, allowing just two earned runs on 14 hits over his last four starts, covering a span of 26 innings. He should be happy to be facing the Cubs, noting that he's gone up against them four times since 2021, yielding just five earned runs in 22 innings of work. Note that his last four outings against Chicago have totalled 3, 3, 5 and 4 runs. Kyle Hendricks has faced a similar path to that of Walker this season, albeit on a shorter time frame as he started the year on the injured list. Hendricks has lowered his FIP to 3.56 and his WHIP to 0.98 after holding his last three opponents to only three earned runs in 19 1/3 innings. You'd be hard-pressed to find two bullpens in better shape as we head toward the end of June. The Phillies 'pen entered last night's action having logged just 276 innings collectively this season and only 22 1/3 innings over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Cubs relief corps had worked just 267 2/3 innings including only 24 over the last seven contests. Thanks to trailing for the majority of the first two games in this series, Chicago was able to keep two of its key relief arms in Mark Leiter Jr. and closer Adbert Alzolay idle. Take the under (8*). |
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06-27-23 | Brewers v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and New York at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair in Queens on Tuesday as the Brewers and Mets continue their four-game series. Milwaukee will give the start to veteran Julio Teheran. He's burst back on the scene recording a 1.53 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 35 1/3 innings of work this season. I simply wonder how long he can keep it up. Note that the last time we saw Teheran pitch a full big league season was in 2019 when he logged a 4.66 FIP and 1.32 WHIP with the Braves. In limited work in 2020 and 2021, Teheran recorded an 8.62 and 6.37 FIP, respectively. At the minor league level this year, Teheran had posted a 5.62 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 40 innings with the Padres Triple-A affiliate. Behind Teheran is a Brewers bullpen that has pitched well lately but still checks in sporting a collective 4.47 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). David Peterson makes his return to the Mets starting rotation, starting a MLB game for the first time in over a month. Keep in mind, he has struggled to the tune of a 4.78 FIP and 1.74 WHIP at the big league level this season. He hasn't fared much better in the minors, posting a 4.86 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 37 innings at Triple-A. The Brewers don't figure to be a favorable opponent for Peterson to return against, noting they've lit him up to the tune of nine earned runs in eight innings in two games against him going back to last year. The Mets bullpen entered this series having recorded a collective 4.24 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take the over (10*). |
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06-26-23 | White Sox v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. The Angels scored a whopping 25 runs in Saturday's win over the Rockies at hitter-friendly Coors Field but it was right back to the doldrums on Sunday as they plated only three runs, losing for the fifth time in their last six games, including a pair of shutout losses. It's been a similar struggle for the White Sox offense as they've scored four runs or less in eight of their last 10 games overall. Dylan Cease will get the start for Chicago on Monday. After a shaky start to the season, he's settled down, allowing two earned runs or less in each of his last four outings. Cease owns a 3.99 FIP and 1.32 WHIP on the season - rather pedestrian numbers to be sure - however, those numbers have been trending doward. Cease faced the Angels once last season, tossing seven shutout innings in a 3-0 victory. Reid Detmers will counter for Los Angeles. He'll have the advantage of facing the White Sox for the first time in his career and comes in hot, having allowed just two earned runs in 18 2/3 innings over his last three starts. What I like about Detmers is the fact that he's yet to be asked to pitch on short rest (four days) this season. He checks in sporting a career-best 3.27 FIP and 1.36 WHIP. As far as the bullpens go, the White Sox relief corps has pitched much better lately, entering yesterday's action sporting a collective 4.05 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven games. While the Angels 'pen has struggled lately, it still went into Sunday's action with a solid 3.65 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, not to mention 27 converted saves and only 13 blown. Take the under (10*). |
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06-25-23 | Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair last night as the Dodgers rallied for an 8-7 victory. I expect a much lower-scoring contest on Sunday as Houston looks to salvage the finale of this three-game series. Hunter Brown will get the start for the Astros. He's coming off a poor outing against the Mets as he allowed six earned runs in just 5 2/3 innings of work. On a positive note, he has worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts. He'll also be making his fourth straight start on full rest (five days). The Astros bullpen has admittedly struggled lately but I do think it's only a matter of time before they turn it around, noting they entered last night's contest sporting a 3.34 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the road this season. Like Brown, Tony Gonsolin is coming off a rocky outing last time out, yielding seven earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. He still owns a 2.92 ERA and 1.01 WHIP this season. The right hander has posted a 4.11 FIP, allowing onlyi 58-of-217 batters to reach base. The Dodgers bullpen has slowly been rounding back into form, entering Saturday's contest with a 4.25 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over the last seven contests. On the season, they've converted 19 saves while blowing only seven. Take the under (8*). |
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06-24-23 | Astros v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a low-scoring game to open this series last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. Ronel Blanco will take the ball for the visiting Astros. While he's posted terrific minor league numbers for stretches over the course of his career, that hasn't translated to success at the big league level. Last season, Blanco recorded a 5.32 FIP and 1.90 WHIP in very limited work with the Astros, pitching just 6 1/3 innings. So far this season, he's logged 29 innings with the big club, posting a 5.58 FIP and 1.69 WHIP. Of the 132 batters he has faced, 50 have reached base. All told, Blanco has allowed 10.4 hits and 5.0 walks per nine innings at the major league level. Behind Blanco is an Astros bullpen that entered last night's contest sporting a collective 6.23 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over the last seven games. Rookie Bobby Miller will counter for Los Angeles. After a red hot start to the campaign, he was brought back to Earth against the Giants last time out, yielding seven earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. I can't help but think more regression is coming for Miller, noting that he has held opponents to only 6.0 hits and 0.3 home runs per nine innings this season. At the Triple-A level earlier this season, Miller posted a 5.65 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings, allowing twice as many home runs (2) in around half the number of innings that he has at the major league level. The Dodgers 'pen entered last night's game with a collective 6.07 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last seven contests with only six converted saves and six blown. The Astros offense has been hit-or-miss lately but has shown a fairly strong bounce-back pattern lately, scoring 3, 7, 1, 4, 10 and 2 runs over their last six games. Take the over (10*). |
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06-24-23 | Saskatchewan v. Calgary UNDER 46 | 29-26 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Calgary at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Roughriders enter this game on the heels of two straight 'over' results to open this season but I look for that trend to change on Saturday. This is somewhat of a statement game for Saskatchewan after last week's ugly defensive effort against the Blue Bombers. While the Riders defense was generally awful in that game, I came away more concerned about their offense with veteran WR Derel Walker sidelined for the next six weeks. The Riders found the end zone three times in the game's first 33+ minutes but then never scored another touchdown the rest of the way, despite the wide-open nature of that ultimately lopsided affair. Here, they'll go on the road to face a Stampeders defense that should be able to generate plenty of pressure on QB Trevor Harris. Calgary's offense has sputtered a little in the early going this season but did perform better in last week's win in Ottawa. I do think it will be taking a step up in class here, however, and I believe the jury is still out on the Stamps offense with the likes of WR Reggie Begleton and RB Ka'deem Carey sidelined. Calgary managed only one offensive touchdown in the first 38 minutes and change against Ottawa last week. While we've seen some high-scoring matchups between these two teams over the years, the scoring floor has been around the 37-point mark while the ceiling hasn't been hit with much consistency going back to 2019. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 8-1 with the Riders playing on the road off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 44.2 points. Take the under (8*). |
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06-23-23 | Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This game features a sneaky-good starting pitching matchup as J.P. France takes the ball for the Astros against rookie Emmet Sheehan of the Dodgers. France's early big league returns have been somewhat mixed as he has posted a 4.94 FIP and 1.20 WHIP. With that said, he has settled in lately, working at least into the sixth inning in five straight starts entering Friday's contest. Last time out he held a surging Reds lineup to only two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings. Emmet Sheehan absolutely lit it up at the Double-A level before getting the call to the big club and proceeded to toss six shutout innings against the Giants last weekend. In the minors, Sheehan had recorded a 1.86 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 53 1/3 innings before getting the call to the majors. Only 52 of the 211 batters he had faced managed to reach base. Both bullpens have struggled lately and in the case of the Dodgers has been a general disappointment this season. With that said, both teams are coming off an off day on Thursday meaning it should be all hands on deck for this one and I believe both starters are capable of working deep into the game pitching on full or extended rest. Take the under (8*). |
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06-22-23 | BC v. Winnipeg OVER 49 | 30-6 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between B.C. and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. Something has to give on Thursday in Winnipeg as the Lions enter sporting an 0-2 o/u mark while the Blue Bombers have seen both of their contests go 'over' the total. Despite key injuries on both offenses, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair. The Lions will be without perhaps their top offensive threat in WR Dominique Rhymes as he deals with a foot injury. Vernon Adams Jr. has proven to be an effective 'point guard' type distributor in this offense and I'm confident we'll see others step up including RB Taquan Mizzell who has not only run for 174 yards in two games but has also hauled in seven catches. The Bombers have yet to hit their stride defensively, most recently allowing a banged-up Saskatchewan offense to find the end zone three times in the game's first 34 minutes last week. On the flip side, the Winnipeg offense has been electric early on. Last week it scored three offensive touchdowns over a 21-minute stretch last week against the Riders. The Bombers will likely be without RB Brady Oliveira on Thursday. I do think that forces their hand a little here and limits their ability to churn out long, clock-eating drives. The Lions have to realize they'll need to produce a lot more offense than they did against the punchless Elks last Saturday if they want to keep their flawless record intact. Note that the 'under' has cashed in the last two meetings in this series but we haven't seen three consecutive matchups between these two teams stay 'under' the total since 2012-13. Take the over (8*). |
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06-17-23 | Edmonton Elks v. BC OVER 46 | Top | 0-22 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 49 m | Show |
Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and B.C. at 7 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams were involved in relatively low-scoring affairs last week with Edmonton falling by a 17-13 score at home against Saskatchewan and B.C. delivering a 25-15 win in Calgary. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair as they match up in Vancouver on Saturday. While Edmonton is expected to be one of the league's worst teams this season, I do think their offense will be better than it showed last week against Saskatchewan. The Elks have plenty of talent at the wide receiver position with veterans Eugene Lewis and Emmanuel Arceneaux leading the way. Lewis showed an excellent rapport with QB Taylor Cornelius last week, hauling in five catches for 148 yards and a touchdown. While the Elks defense seemed to hold up well against the Riders, an injury to Saskatchewan's offensive focal point WR Derel Walker likely played a role in that. Here, the Elks will be up against a Lions offense that was humming in last week's win in Calgary. B.C. found the end zone twice in the game's first 16 minutes and QB Vernon Adams Jr. contributed two passing touchdowns and one on the ground. On the flip side, the Lions defense played exceptionally well but did benefit from Stampeders RB Ka'Deem Carey going down to injury, not to mention QB Jake Maier working with a depleted wide receiving corps. The 'over' has cashed in three of the last four meetings in this series with a 'floor' of 45 points. Take the over (10*). |
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06-16-23 | Reds v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Two unheralded starters will match up as the Reds and Astros do battle in the opener of their three-game series on Friday. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most. Andrew Abbott has battled command issues but has still yet to allow an earned run in his first two big league starts, logging 11 2/3 innings of six-hit ball. Abbott has posted a 3.36 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in those two outings, seemingly picking up where he left off after recording a 2.50 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 54 innings of work at the minor league level. It's worth mentioning that the Astros have walked only 212 times as a team this season, among the lowest totals in the majors. Behind Abbott is a Reds bullpen that enjoyed an off day on Thursday and has been better than expected this season, recording a collective 3.80 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. On the road, Cincinnati has converted 14 saves while blowing only five. J.P. France will take the ball for Houston. He's had an up-and-down start to his big league career and is coming off an outing in which he issued an uncharacteristic six walks against the Guardians. With that said, he has worked at least into the sixth inning in four straight starts. The Reds just got finished beating up on one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball in Kansas City but should find the going a little tougher in Houston. Note that the Astros bullpen has been terrific this season, posting a collective 3.25 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 17 saves converted and only seven blown. Take the under (10*). |
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06-15-23 | Calgary v. Ottawa UNDER 43.5 | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams were involved in relatively low-scoring season-openers last week and I expect a similar story to unfold as they match up in Ottawa on Thursday. Calgary couldn't find the end zone until B.C. had the game well in hand past the midway point of the fourth quarter last week, up 22-6. It wasn't the best defensive performance from the Stampeders either as they allowed two touchdowns in the game's first 16 minutes but they did hold the Lions out of the end zone for a 32-minute stretch from there. Here, they'll take a step down in class against what appears to be a punchless Ottawa offense still trying to figure things out with QB Jeremiah Masoli sidelined (Nick Arbuckle is likely to start again this week after an ineffective no touchdown and three interception performance against Montreal last Saturday). The RedBlacks failed to score a touchdown in their loss to the Alouettes last week. On a positive note, their defense held up well, allowing a touchdown in the first three minutes of the game but holding the Als out of the end zone for the remainder of the contest. They'll catch a break here as the Stamps are expected to be without RB Ka'Deem Carey - one of the league's best rushers. Take the under (8*). |
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06-15-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Thursday. After a pair of wild, high-scoring affairs to open this series we saw the two offenses take a bit of a breather last night. I expect the scoring to pick back up on Thursday afternoon as Philadelphia sends Aaron Nola to the hill against Ryne Nelson of Arizona. Nola has faced the D'Backs four times in his career, posting a lofty 8.41 ERA and 1.67 WHIP with those four contests totalling 13, 9, 13 and 15 runs. While the right-hander has posted solid overall numbers this season, his recent results haven't been stellar as he has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four outings. Note that he'll be making his third consecutive start on short rest (four days) here. Nelson has not looked comfortable at all pitching at Chase Field this season, logging a 6.62 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in seven home starts. He has generally struggled against teams getting a second (or third, or fourth) look at him over the course of his young career. Here, the Phillies will be seeing him for the second time this season. Note that Nelson owns a 4.67 FIP and 1.46 WHIP this season with 98 of the 289 batters he has faced managing to reach base. Neither bullpen brings much confidence into this contest with the Phillies relief corps having posted a collective 8.34 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over the last seven games and the D'Backs 'pen logging a 5.19 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (8*). |
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06-14-23 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen plenty of offense in the first two games of this series and I expect more of the same on Wednesday as the Angels send Reid Detmers to the mound against Andrew Heaney of the Rangers. Detmers has been reasonably effective for the Halos so far this season, logging a 3.40 FIP, however he hasn't shown the ability to work deep into games thanks in large part to a lofty 1.51 WHIP. On three previous occasions he has come off a team victory in his most recent start and in those three outings he allowed 11 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings of work. Detmers faced the Rangers once previously this season, allowing three earned runs on seven hits over just four innings in a 10-1 home defeat. While much has been made of the overworked and undermanned nature of the Rangers bullpen, the Angels 'pen has perhaps labored even more lately, logging a collective 30.0 innings over the last seven games and no having been afforded a day off since June 5th. Andrew Heaney has posted fairly typical numbers so far this season but has struggled to settle in here at Globe Life Field, posting a 5.67 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in seven home outings. His 4.80 FIP and 1.25 WHIP certainly leave something to be desired and I suspect he'll have his hands full with a red hot Angels offense that has produced just shy of 6.0 runs per game over the last week. The Rangers bullpen allowed the Halos to pull away in the ninth inning last night. Their relief corps got off to a terrific start this season but have now seen their collective ERA rise to 4.57 and their FIP to 1.26. On the season, Texas has only converted 12 saves while blowing 10. Take the over (10*). |
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06-13-23 | Panthers v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Vegas at 8:20 pm et on Tuesday. The last two games managed to stay 'under' the total which has been par for the course for this particular matchup in Sunrise. It's been a much different story in Las Vegas and I expect that to continue to be the case on Tuesday, noting that all seven previous meetings on the Strip have totalled at least six goals. In this series we saw Games 1 and 2 reach seven and nine total goals. It's desperation time for the Panthers now and here we'll note that the 'over' is 10-3 when they come off a one-goal loss this season with that spot producing an average total of 7.6 goals. The 'over' is also 22-11 with the Golden Knights playing at home following a one-goal victory over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Interestingly, Vegas hasn't been as stingy from a defensive standpoint at home this season, allowing 2.9 goals per game compared to its season average of 2.7 goals allowed per contest. Florida checks in giving up 3.5 goals per game on the road compared to its season average of 3.3. Take the over (10*). |
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06-13-23 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring extra innings affair to open this series last night as the Angels rallied for a 9-6 victory. I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday. Jaime Barria will get the start for the visiting Angels. He's made 14 appearances but only three starts for the Halos this season and has pitched well, logging a 3.04 FIP and 0.97 WHIP in 39 innings of work. Barria should be happy to see the Rangers in the opposing dugout as he owns a career 3.27 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 10 previous starts against them. The Angels bullpen continues to impress. Last night, after digging an early 5-1 hole, Los Angeles' pitching staff hung tough and ultimately limited the Rangers to only one run over the final nine innings. The Halos relief corps entered last night's contest sporting a collective 0.68 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the last seven games. It sounds like the Rangers are leaning toward giving Cody Bradford his third big league start on Tuesday (with Jon Gray sidelined due to a blister). The results have been mixed in Bradford's first two starts but he did shake off the nerves to hold the Orioles to only two earned runs over five innings last time out. He had made 10 starts previously at the Triple-A level, recording a 1.82 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. The Rangers bullpen has been good but not great this season but did enter Monday's action sporting a collective 1.16 WHIP in 99 innings pitched at home and has been 'underworked' in the big picture at least, logging a combined 197 innings this season (it did eclipse the 200-inning mark in last night's marathon). Take the under (8*). |
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06-12-23 | Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 209.5 | Top | 89-94 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Monday. This series has taken a low-scoring tone for the most part with three of the first four games staying 'under' the total. As I've noted in my analysis of the last two contests, Miami hasn't been able to break through the offensive ceiling against Denver this season, making good on 39, 39, 39, 38, 34 and 35 field goals in six matchups. On the flip side, the Heat have held an incredible 20 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. In this series, Miami has limited Denver to 40, 39, 41 and 39 made field goals. There are still plenty of bettors chasing the 'over' in this series and as a result the oddsmakers can only set this number so low. It's not low enough in my opinion, noting that the 'under' is 16-7 with the Heat coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less this season and 14-6 with the Nuggets following five consecutive games in which they shot 47% or better from the field, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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06-10-23 | Golden Knights v. Panthers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 112 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
Stanley Cup Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Florida at 8:20 pm et on Saturday. We saw a reversal of sorts in this series in Game 3 as the Panthers won in overtime in a low-scoring affair. Keep in mind, Games 1 and 2 had totalled seven and nine goals. I expect another lower-scoring contest than most are anticipating on Saturday noting that the 'under' is a long-term 30-16 with the Golden Knights playing on the road seeking revenge for a one-goal loss against an opponent. While all seven all-time meetings between these two teams in Las Vegas have totalled at least six goals, four of the last five matchups here in Sunrise have reached five total goals or less. Here in the 2022-23 campaign, the Knights have held the opposition to just 2.6 goals per game on the road. The Panthers haven't been as stout defensively at home, but have still been better in that regard than on the road, limiting foes to 3.0 goals per contest (compared to their 3.3 goals allowed per game overall). Take the under (10*). |
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06-10-23 | Ottawa v. Montreal UNDER 44.5 | 12-19 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Montreal at 7 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between the Tiger-Cats and Blue Bombers last night but I expect nothing of the sort as the RedBlacks and Alouettes kick off their CFL season on Saturday in Montreal. Ottawa will be forced to start Nick Arbuckle at quarterback as Jeremiah Masoli remains sidelined due to injury. Arbuckle was a big disappointment in his first year with the RedBlacks in 2022, throwing for a high completion percentage but finding the end zone only six times through the air to go along with 14 interceptions. I suspect Ottawa will take a rather cautious approach offensively here, likely feeling it can win even by hanging a low number on the scoreboard against an undermanned Alouettes offense. Montreal enters the season with newly-signed QB Cody Fajardo under center. He didn't show much chemistry with the Als unproven receiving corps (they lost Eugene Lewis to free agency and will start the campaign without Greg Ellingson and Tyson Philpot due to injuries). Montreal is likely to lean heavily on its ground attack led by veteran William Stanback, who is healthy entering the 2023 season. That should be music to the ears of the RedBlacks defense though, noting that they're dealing with some key injuries in the secondary. With Fajardo still learning the Als playbook, I'm not expecting them to let him cut it loose too often on Saturday. Take the under (8*). |
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06-10-23 | A's v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Milwaukee at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The A's saw their five-game 'over' streak come to an end in last night's series-opener in Milwaukee but Oakland did manage to stun the Brewers for its third straight victory. I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair on Saturday as the A's hand the ball to Paul Blackburn against Julio Teheran of the Brewers. Blackburn has posted a 4.05 FIP and 1.67 WHIP through two starts, spanning nine innings of work. Of the 42 batters he has faced, 15 have reached base. More concerning is the fact that Blackburn had struggled mightily at the Triple-A level, logging a 7.50 ERA and 2.17 WHIP in six outings covering a span of 18 innings. Of the 90 batters he faced in the minors, 39 managed to reach base. Behind Blackburn is an A's bullpen that has posted a collective 6.40 ERA and 1.72 WHIP on the road this season, blowing five saves while converting only four (entering last night's action). Veteran Julio Teheran has made two big league starts this season and has pitched surprisingly well, recording a 3.97 FIP and 0.92 WHIP. That's in stark contrast to his performance at the Triple-A level where he had posted a 5.62 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in the Padres organization. The A's have been consistently applying pressure on opposing pitching staffs over the last week, plating 5, 4, 11, 9 and 5 runs over their last five contests. As bad as they've been overall this season, they are still averaging just north of 4.0 runs per game away from home. They may be catching the Brewers bullpen at the right time as Milwaukee relievers have combined to post a 5.56 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven contests (entering last night's action). Take the over (10*). |
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06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 211.5 | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Friday. We'll stick with the program on Friday and back the 'under' as the Nuggets carry their 2-1 series lead into Game 4 of The Finals in Miami. The Heat have yet to show they can break through their offensive ceiling against Denver this season, knocking down 39, 39, 39, 38 and 34 field goals in five meetings. On the flip side, however, Miami has limited an incredible 19 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Nuggets made good on more than 41 field goals. Here, we'll note again that Denver has seen the 'under' go 21-9 after shooting 50% or better from the field in consecutive games this season, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 15-7 with the Heat coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less this season. Take the under (8*). |
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06-07-23 | Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 214.5 | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. While the Heat did outlast the Nuggets 111-108 in Game 2 of this series, they still failed to break through the offensive ceiling, connecting on only 38 field goals in another relatively slow-paced affair. Note that Miami has now knocked down 39, 39, 39 and 38 field goals in four meetings with the Nuggets this season. On the flip side, the Heat have now held an incredible 18 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. They've limited six straight and 10 of their last 11 foes to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. The Heat exploded for 17 made three-pointers in Game 2 but I'm not anticipating a repeat performance here, noting that the Nuggets have held opponents to an average of 12 made threes per contest on the road this season. The 'under' is 20-9 with Denver coming off consecutive games in which it shot 50% or better from the field, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone a long-term 129-96 with the Heat playing at home on two or more days' rest, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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06-06-23 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams met for a three-game series in Arizona back in early May and two of those contests flew 'over' the total, reaching 15 and 17 runs. I'm anticipating a similarly high-scoring start to this series in Washington on Tuesday. Tommy Henry will take the ball for the visiting Diamondbacks. He had his best outing of the young season last time out as he tossed seven shutout innings against the Rockies. That was at home though. Henry has logged a 5.74 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in three road starts. For the season, Henry sports a 5.21 FIP and 1.24 WHIP, allowing 52-of-167 batters he has faced to reach base. That coming after he posted a 5.88 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in 47 big league innings last year. Jake Irvin will counter for Washington on Tuesday. He owns a 5.80 FIP and 1.63 WHIP on the season and has worked beyond the fifth inning only once in six starts so far. That doesn't bode well as the Nationals bullpen has recorded a collective 6.65 ERA and 1.75 WHIP over the last seven contests. On the season, Washington has converted only eight saves while also blowing eight here at home. Going back to Irvin, he has faced 124 batters with 47 of them managing to reach base. Arizona is capable of applying plenty of pressure on opposing pitchers when reaching base, having already racked up 55 stolen bases this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-01-23 | Reds v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 2-8 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Reds had their four-game 'over' streak snapped in last night's 5-4 victory here in Boston. I look for a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting in Thursday's series-finale. Reds starter Hunter Greene's most recent outing went 'over' the total but it had everything to do with the Cincinnati offense as it rolled to a 9-0 victory over the Cubs. Greene actually worked six hitless frames in that victory, striking out 11 along the way. That marked his second straight start in which he recorded double-digit strikeouts. Greene has lowered his FIP to 3.62 and his WHIP to a still-lofty 1.38. It's worth noting that he should be in line for some regression to the mean in terms of hits allowed, noting he has given up 8.8 hits per nine innings this season after allowing just 7.4 in 125 2/3 innings last year. Chris Sale will counter for Boston. He checks in sporting a 3.90 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in 10 starts spanning 55 1/3 innings of work this season. Sale brings excellent form into this start having allowed just 10 hits and four earned runs in his last three outings, covering a span of 20 innings. The two bullpens have exceeded expectations this season. While the Reds 'pen has suffered a bit of regression lately, logging an ERA north of five over the last seven games, it has also converted four saves without a single blown over that stretch. Between the two clubs, they've combined to convert 31 saves while blowing only 13. Take the under (8*). |
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05-31-23 | Brewers v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Blue Jays picked up their second straight win in the opener of this interleague series last night. They'll likely need to get their bats out again on Wednesday as they hand the ball to a struggling Alek Manoah against Julio Teheran of the Brewers. Teheran has made just one big league start this season - his first since 2021. He held up well in that outing against the Giants but I think it's important to keep that brief start in perspective. At the Triple-A level, with the Padres organization, Teheran had recorded a 5.62 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 40 innings of work. Of the 185 batters he faced, 70 reached base. Manoah has of course struggled this season, posting a 6.15 FIP and 1.79 WHIP in 11 starts. You would have to go back seven outings to find the last time he lasted six innings or more. While the Blue Jays bullpen behind him has held up well, they also haven't had a day off (as a team) since May 11th. The Brewers 'pen entered last night's action sporting an ugly 6.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over the last seven games. Take the over (8*). |
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05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 203.5 | 103-84 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' on Saturday and we'll come right back with the same play in Game 7 of this series on Monday. The pace has slowed considerably in this series over the last few games and there's little reason to expect anything different here. Note that Miami has now held 15 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, Boston has been limited to 43 or fewer made field goals in 12 straight contests. The 'under' is now a perfect 9-0 with the Celtics facing elimination over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of just 199.1 points. Take the under (8*). |
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05-28-23 | Cardinals v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Cleveland at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has cashed in the first two games in this series but I expect a different story to unfold in Sunday's series-finale. Jordan Montgomery has been completely out of sorts for the Cardinals lately, allowing 13 earned runs in his last three starts, spanning 14 1/3 innings. He has issued at least three walks only twice in his last 26 starts but those two times have come in his last three outings. He's also inexplicably had the yips in terms of home runs allowed, tagged for six long balls over his last four starts. Hunter Gaddis will counter for Cleveland. He shut the White Sox down over six innings in his most recent start, allowing just two hits without allowing a single earned run. We've seen this story play out before this season though, noting that he didn't allow an earned run over six innings against Oakland back in April before getting lit up for eight earned runs in three innings in his next outing. In 19 1/3 innings pitched at the Triple-A level this season, Gaddis had posted a 5.12 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. He has been better with the Guardians, posting a 3.64 FIP and 1.21 WHIP but I do think regression will be in order over his next few outings (note that he owns a career 6.25 FIP and 1.49 WHIP). Both bullpens have been solid lately but the Guardians have blown 11 saves already this season while the Cardinals relief corps has been overworked, having not had a day off since May 11th. Take the over (8*). |
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05-27-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 210.5 | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. We've seen a major shift in this series, not only with the Celtics winning the last two games, but from a pace perspective. Game 4 saw the Celtics get off 84 field goal attempts while Miami managed to hoist up only 78. In Game 5, Miami got off only 79 field goal attempts with Boston attempting 79. Of course, the Celtics have shot a blistering 51.2% and 50.6% over the last two contests to get back in the series. I do expect a response from the Heat defensively here after Boston shot the lights out from beyond the arc in Game 5. On the flip side, we'll note that the 'under' is now a perfect 8-0 with the Celtics facing elimination in the playoffs over the last two seasons, allowing only 93.1 points per game in the process. That situation has produced an average total of just 198.1 points. Boston has now been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in 11 straight games while Miami has held the opposition to 43 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 14 consecutive contests. Take the under (8*). |
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05-27-23 | Stars v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Vegas at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Stars have now been held to three goals or less in six straight games - matching a season-high. We've seen three straight games in this series stay 'under' the total. That's worth noting as the Golden Knights haven't seen more than three games in a row stay 'under' since back in January. We'll also note that the 'over' is 11-3 with the Knights playing at home seeking revenge for an in-season loss against an opponent this season with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. As we've noted previously in this series, Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger appears to be wearing down and that's not surprising as he'll be between the pipes for an 80th time this season on Saturday. Knights goaltender Adin Hill has performed admirably but he's also faced a ton of shots in this series, 36, 28, 34 and 42 through four games, and will be starting a season-high eighth straight game with only one stretch of more than one day off between contests over that stretch. I expect both offenses to produce here. Take the over (8*). |
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05-27-23 | Cardinals v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Cleveland at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. These two teams were involved in a relatively low-scoring affair to open this series last night and the Guardians posted their fourth straight 'under' result in a 4-3 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. St. Louis will send Jack Flaherty to the hill for his 11th start of the season. He checks in sporting a 4.88 FIP and 1.59 WHIP, having allowed a whopping 85-of-223 batters he has faced to reach base. I don't need to tell you that spells trouble as he prepares to face a Guardians lineup that, while struggling to hit for the most part, does generally apply a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers with their speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths. Meanwhile, the Cards bullpen behind Flaherty is as overworked as it gets having not had a day off since May 11th, entering last night's action with a collective 4.98 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the last seven games. Tanner Bibee will get the start for Cleveland. His overall numbers this season are solid but he has proven vulnerable at times. He's just two starts removed from allowing four earned runs over just 3 2/3 innings against the light-hitting Tigers for example. He was fortunate to give up only two earned runs over six innings against the Mets last time out as he was tagged for seven hits and issued four walks (while striking out only three). The Cards bats were relatively quiet last night but we know they're capable of breaking out, noting that they've scored eight runs or more four times since May 15th. The Guardians bullpen has posted terrific numbers overall but used a number of key arms last night and has blown 11 saves to date (and nearly blew another last night). Take the over (10*). |
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05-26-23 | Cardinals v. Guardians OVER 8 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'm not convinced that this will be the pitcher's duel that many are expecting as the Cardinals send Matthew Liberatore to the hill against Guardians ace Shane Bieber. Liberatore will be making his third appearance and second start for the Cardinals this season. He pitched well in his lone previous start, out-duelling Brewers ace Corbin Burnes in a 3-0 victory back on May 17th. The left-hander has yet to find much consistency at the big league level, however, noting that he logged a 5.02 FIP and 1.73 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings with St. Louis last season. He has allowed 9-of-27 batters he has faced to reach base in limited work this year and I do expect the Guardians to apply plenty of pressure with their aggressive base-running on Friday. Perhaps the bigger concern should be the Cardinals bullpen as they haven't had a day off since May 11th and check in sporting a collective 4.98 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the last seven games. For the season, the Cards 'pen has converted only 11 saves while blowing 10. Shane Bieber has been somewhat un-Bieber-like this season, posting a 3.98 FIP and 1.21 WHIP. His walks per nine innings are up and his strikeouts are down (considerably). Here, he'll be starting on short rest (four days) for a third consecutive turn in the rotation. Compounding matters is the fact that he worked eight innings, throwing 106 pitches in his most recent start. The Guardians bullpen has been good but has had a tendency to cough up late leads, blowing two saves in the last seven games alone and 11 on the season so far. Take the over (8*). |
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05-25-23 | Golden Knights v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We've seen consecutive low-scoring games in this series as the Golden Knights have taken a 3-0 stranglehold, pushing the Stars to the brink of elimination on Thursday. Vegas took Game 3 by a score of 4-0 and that's notable as only twice previously this season have the Knights played on the road following a shutout with those two contests totalling seven and eight goals (both victories). While the Stars were held off the scoresheet in Game 3, it wasn't for lack of trying. They carried the play over the game's final 50 minutes, peppering Knights goaltender Adin Hill at times. There were a number of posts and near-misses - I'm confident they convert some of those opportunities on Thursday. Dallas will be without Jamie Benn (suspension) and Evgeni Dadonov (injury) but neither are consistent point producers (11 and 10 points in the playoffs respectively). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 7-0 with Dallas playing at home seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent this season, with that situation producing a staggering average total of 8.7 goals. The 'over' is also 16-8 with Dallas at home having lost at least two consecutive meetings with an opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 6.6 goals in that spot. There's been no letdown from the Knights offensively in similar situations this season as they average 4.0 goals per game when playing on the road after posting a road win in which they scored four or more goals. As I've noted previously, Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger has been extremely overworked, approaching 80 appearances this season (this will mark his 79th). His save percentage has dipped to .895 in the playoffs and .876 over his last four games. Take the over (10*). |
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05-25-23 | Mets v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The wind was blowing in at Wrigley Field last night and as a result we saw an exceptionally low total, not to mention another 'under' result, the second straight to open this series. I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's series-finale, however. New York will give the start to Carlos Carrasco. To say he has struggled this season would be an understatement. Carrasco checks in sporting a 6.97 FIP and 1.55 WHIP through only four starts spanning 18 2/3 innings due to a stint on the I.L. He did pitch reasonably well in two rehab appearances at the minor league level but that was at Double-A Binghamton. Here in the bigs he has allowed 32-of-86 batters he has faced to reach base including four home runs. Carrasco did pitch six shutout innings in his lone start against the Cubs last year but I think we can agree that he was a much different pitcher a year ago than he is now. Kyle Hendricks will get his first start of the season for the Cubs. He's had extended work at the minor league (Triple-A) level and hasn't looked particularly good, posting a 5.75 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, allowing 28-of-85 batters he has faced to reach base including a pair of home runs in 20 1/3 innings. Keep in mind, Hendricks has struggled at the big league level over the last two seasons, recording a 4.89 FIP and 1.35 WHIP in 2021 and a 4.82 FIP and 1.29 WHIP in 2022. The Mets entered last night's action averaging north of 5.0 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching this season. I don't expect either of tonight's starters to work deep into this game and that should open the door for some late runs, noting that the two bullpens have really struggled lately. New York's relief corps checks in sporting a collective 5.55 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night's action) while the Cubs 'pen has posted a 6.45 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over the same stretch (also prior to last night's contest). Take the over (10*). |
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05-24-23 | Marlins v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. We're starting to see this total creep down following consecutive 'under' results to open this series. I believe it's the wrong move. Sandy Alcantara will get the start for the visiting Marlins. This 2023 campaign hasn't gone particularly well for the Marlins ace as he checks in sporting a 5.05 ERA in 57 innings of work. He hasn't been as bad as that ERA indicates, logging a 3.59 FIP and 1.23 WHIP but there is still reason for concern as he has allowed a whopping 30 earned runs over his last seven starts and now pitches on short rest (four days) for just the third time this season. The Marlins bullpen has been overworked, having been called into action for just shy of 190 innings already this season. Note that Miami relievers entered last night's contest sporting a collective 4.38 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road this season. Karl Kauffmann will get his second big league start for the Rockies on Wednesday. I'm confident the Marlins bats can inflict plenty of damage against the right-hander. Note that he'll be starting on just four days' rest after allowing 9-of-21 batters he faced to reach base in his debut against the Rangers last week. Kauffmann inexplicably got the call to the bigs after getting rocked to the tune of a 7.78 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in 37 innings of work at the Triple-A level earlier this season. He allowed a ridiculous 69-of-174 batters to reach base with Albuquerque. The Rockies bullpen has held up alright so far in this series but is still a subpar relief corps having entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.61 ERA and 1.55 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (8*). |
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05-23-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 216.5 | Top | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. Game 3 ultimately sailed 'over' the total thanks in large part to the lopsided nature of that contest. The game was actually well on track to stay 'under' the total until the floodgates opened in the final eight minutes or so of the fourth quarter. While most expect the Celtics to roll over on Tuesday, I do think we'll see them show some fight and that ultimately projects to a much tighter affair than we saw on Sunday. While the Heat did allow 98 field goal attempts in Sunday's victory, the Celtics could only connect on 39 of them. On the flip side, Miami shot the lights out, making good on 46-of-81 field goal attempts. I would anticipate seeing a similar tempo from the Heat here, noting that they've gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 12 of their last 15 contests. While the Celtics haven't lived up to expectations defensively this season, and allowed 46 made field goals in Game 3 of this series on Sunday, it is worth noting that they haven't allowed 46 or more successful FG attempts in consecutive games since November 30th and December 2nd and that was the only occasion in which they did all season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 103-64 with the Heat coming off a game in which they shot 55% or better from the field, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 205-159 with Miami checking in off a win by 15 points or more. Take the under (10*). |
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05-23-23 | White Sox v. Guardians OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is a rematch of the same starting pitching matchup we saw last Thursday - a game the Guardians won by a score of 3-1. Both starters worked their way into and out of trouble on a number of occasions early in that contest and it ultimately turned out to be a low-scoring affair. I expect a different story to unfold here as both Dylan Cease and Logan Allen start on short rest (four days). In the case of Cease, he'll be starting on four days' rest for a fourth consecutive turn in the rotation. He hasn't come close to reaching the heights he saw in the 2022 campaign (he finished second in A.L. Cy Young Award voting), logging a 4.20 FIP and 1.39 WHIP. Of the 237 batters he has faced, 79 have reached base. Since striking out 18 in his first two outings this season, Cease has topped out at just six K's over his last eight trips to the hill. Allen will be making his first career big league start on short rest. He struck out eight in each of his first two starts this season but has K'd only 13 in his last three outings combined, covering a span of 15 2/3 innings. Not helping matters is the fact that White Sox hitters just saw him (and had some success with seven hits and a walk in 5 2/3 innings) less than a week ago - the first time he'll face an opponent for a second time in his big league career. Last week, I noted that the two bullpens have been a mixed-bag this season, combining to blow 17 saves at the time. Well, they've gone on to blow two more saves since then, so that's 19 blown saves on the campaign between the two 'pens. Take the over (10*). |
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05-22-23 | Marlins v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Monday. The Rockies return home licking their wounds after getting swept at the hands of the Rangers in Texas, outscored by a 31-10 margin in that three-game series. They'll be in tough again on Monday as they hand the ball to Chase Anderson, who is with his third organization already this season, for his second start of the campaign. Since lasting four years with the Brewers from 2016 to 2019, Anderson has now bounced around five different clubs since 2020. I don't need to tell you there's a reason for that. Incredibly, only 5-of-35 batters Anderson has faced at the big league level this season have managed to reach base. I can't help but feel that regression is coming, however, noting that Anderson had allowed 37-of-100 minor league batters to reach base, including four home runs, in 23 innings of work at the Triple-A level earlier in the campaign. Behind Anderson is an awful Rockies bullpen that has been severely overworked, logging 189 innings this season including 30 1/3 frames over the last seven games alone. Over their last seven contests they've posted a collective 5.64 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. Edward Cabrera will counter for Miami. He was dealing with a blister on his finger in his most recent outing but appears on track to make this start on Monday. Note that he'll be starting on short rest (four days) for just the fourth time this season, having allowed eight earned runs in 13 1/3 innings in his previous three outings on four days' rest. Like the Rockies, the Marlins 'pen has also been overworked this season, called into action for a collective 183 innings, recording a 4.18 ERA and 1.31 WHIP along the way. Take the over (8*). |
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05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 214 | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. The first two games in this series have both gone 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Miami for Game 3 on Sunday. Note that the Heat haven't been involved in three consecutive 'over' results since their first round series against the up-tempo Bucks. The pace wasn't necessarily there for an 'over' result in either of the first two games in this series. Game 1 saw the Heat and Celtics get off 85 and 81 field goal attempts, respectively. In Game 2, the Heat picked up the pace thanks to trailing by double-digits for stretches, hoisting up 92 field goal attempts. The Celtics were once again stymied, getting off only 79 FG attempts. The Heat have now held five straight opponents to 81 or fewer FG attempts. Meanwhile, Game 2 sticks out as an anomaly for the Celtics defensively as they've limited seven of their last nine foes to fewer than 90 FG attempts. The last time they allowed 90 or more FG attempts in a game they followed it up by allowing only 79 in their next contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 25-14 with the Celtics installed as a road favorite of six points or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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05-21-23 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 9 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Texas at 2:35 pm et on Sunday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams yesterday as the Rangers continued their onslaught of the Rockies pitching staff in an 11-5 victory. I expect more of the same on Sunday. Connor Seabold will take the ball for the visiting Rockies. He remains in the Colorado starting rotation out of necessity only as he has struggled to the tune of a 5.12 FIP and 1.61 WHIP in 10 appearances including three starts this season. Of the 131 batters he has faced, a whopping 50 of them have reached base. Behind Seabold is a Rockies bullpen that has been extremely overworked, logging a collective 33 1/3 innings over the last seven games alone. For the season, Rockies relievers have combined to post a 3.90 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. The Rangers will give Andrew Heaney the start. He's been a bit of a mixed-bag, recording a lofty 5.11 FIP but a respectable 1.19 WHIP. The hits simply haven't been falling in against the left-hander as he has allowed just 6.9 hits per nine innings. I do think we'll see some regression to the mean in that department, noting he has still given up 8.6 hits per nine innings over the course of his career. The Rangers bullpen hasn't lived up to expectations this season and has really struggled lately, logging a collective 8.53 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with just one save converted and two blown over the last seven games. Take the over (8*). |
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05-20-23 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this game sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Orioles and Blue Jays on Saturday afternoon at Rogers Centre. The Orioles offense kept rolling along last night, putting up six runs in a lopsided victory thanks to tacking on a couple of late runs against a banged-up Blue Jays bullpen. In fact, both bullpens are probably a little weary right now with neither team having had a day off since May 11th. The O's 'pen in particular has been overworked this season, logging 167 2/3 innings collectively. It has admittedly held up well but figures to be pressed into action early on Saturday noting that starter Grayson Rodriguez has yet to last six innings in a start in his big league career. Speaking of Rodriguez, he checks in sporting a 5.46 FIP and 1.73 WHIP and will start on short rest (four days) for the fourth time already this season. He hasn't fared well in his three previous outings on short rest, allowing 12 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings of work. Of the 170 batters Rodriguez has faced this season, 64 have reached base including nine home runs in 37 innings. Alek Manoah has been an abject disaster for the Blue Jays so far this season. To make matters worse, like Rodriguez, he'll be starting on short rest here. Manoah owns a 6.45 FIP and 1.80 WHIP and has allowed a whopping 85-of-214 batters to reach base. The Orioles are capable of applying significant pressure on the right-hander, noting they're among the league leaders in stolen bases with 42. In fact, they've averaging 5.7 runs per game away from home. With the Jays bullpen still sorely missing Zach Pop and Adam Cimber and having logged 4 1/3 innings, using five different relievers, last night, I look for plenty of offense from start to finish in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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05-19-23 | Twins v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Angels were involved in a wild affair in Baltimore yesterday afternoon, rallying for a 6-5 victory to wrap up that four-game series. Now they travel back across the country to host the Twins on Friday and I believe we're in for a relatively low-scoring contest. Joe Ryan will take the ball for the visiting Twins, who were idle yesterday after a three-game series against the Dodgers, also in California. Ryan has been terrific this season, logging a 2.54 FIP and 0.84 WHIP, allowing just 43-of-192 batters to reach base. It really doesn't get much better in terms of starting pitchers this season. Current Angels hitters have gone 4-for-12 in limited action against Ryan with only one extra-base hit (a double from Mike Trout). The Twins offense exploded over a three-game stretch from last Saturday to Monday, plating a whopping 35 runs. Since then, they've been held to eight runs in two games and I expect them to be in tough here as well, noting they average just 3.6 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season and will face a southpaw in Reid Detmers on Friday. Detmers has been a mixed-bag so far this season but it certainly capable of giving the Angels a quality start. Working 129 innings last season, Detmers posted a solid 3.79 FIP and 1.21 WHIP. While he hasn't been able to reach those same heights so far this season, I do think he's been better than his lofty 4.89 ERA indicates as he owns a 3.90 FIP. He has allowed a disappointing 10.0 hits per nine innings but I do expect some regression to the mean in that department, and a lowering of his 1.51 WHIP to go along with it. Current Twins hitters are just 8-for-35 against Detmers including a home run from Carlos Correa. In fact, that home run is the only extra-base hits they've managed to collect off of him. This matchup pits two of the best bullpens in baseball this season. What I really like about the Twins 'pen is the fact that it is one of the freshest in the majors having logged less than 150 innings collectively. Having the day off yesterday certainly helps their cause as well. The Angels 'pen has posted a collective 3.59 ERA and 1.19 WHIP (entering yesterday's action). While the 'over' cashed in Los Angeles' victory yesterday, it hasn't posted consecutive 'over' results since a three-game 'over' streak from May 6th to 8th. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 5-1 in the Twins last six games but they've still posted a 19-22-3 o/u mark this season. Take the under (8*). |
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05-18-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 31 h 3 m | Show |
Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. These two teams went off for 258 combined points in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. In my analysis prior to that contest I noted that the Lakers offensive ceiling would be considerably higher against the Nuggets (or had proven to be) than it was against the Warriors last round, with a similar floor. Los Angeles essentially hit that ceiling, or came awfully close, in the series-opener. In Game 2, I anticipate some regression with the Lakers likely falling closer to that typical 'floor' production level in this particular matchup. By that I mean Los Angeles had made good on 41 or fewer field goals in two of four regular season meetings in this series. The Lakers pace in Game 1 certainly wasn't indicative of the 126 points they ended up scoring as they actually got off only 84 field goal attempts in the contest. In fact, the Nuggets have now held four straight and 10 of their last 13 opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. The Lakers, meanwhile, haven't gotten off more than 87 field goal attempts in a game since Game 2 against the Warriors last round (they scored a series-low 100 points in that contest). While the Nuggets hoisted up 91 FG attempts on Tuesday that type of up-tempo performance has been the exception rather than the rule. Generally-speaking, it's not easy to speed up Denver. To find the last time the Nuggets got off 90 or more FG attempts in consecutive games you would have to go back to March 31st and April 2nd and both of those contests actually stayed 'under' the total with Denver scoring just 93 and 112 points. After shooting the lights out in consecutive games going back to the series-clincher against the Suns last round, I'm anticipating some regression from the Nuggets here offensively. Keep in mind, in four regular season meetings between these two teams, Denver knocked down 'only' 42, 41, 39 and 46 field goals, scoring 122 points in the latter outlier performance in which they got off a whopping 99 FG attempts in early January (that game still totalled 'only' 231 points). Take the under (10*). Finally, we'll note that while the Lakers average 116.6 points per game overall this season, that number drops to 114.9 ppg when coming off consecutive ATS wins (22-game sample size), as is the case here. The Nuggets average 116.0 ppg this season with that scoring average dropping to 113.7 ppg when coming off three or more consecutive wins, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-18-23 | Panthers v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Carolina at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Panthers enter this series on a season-high five-game 'under' streak but I look for it to come to an end on Thursday in Raleigh. Florida did have one previous 'under' streak last five games this season, that coming from February 24th to March 7th. I simply feel the Panthers are going to have their hands full trying to defend the Hurricanes relentless offensive attack in this series. While Carolina has become known for its smothering defense and back-checking, it has also shown that it can score in bunches. Note that in the only two games in which it held New Jersey to fewer than 29 shots on goal last round, Carolina ended up finding the back of the net a combined 11 times. In other words, if the Hurricanes aren't giving up a lot of opportunities, that only means they're spending considerable time in the opposing team's zone, and likely capitalizing. It certainly seems that the Canes have had Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky's number. They've faced him seven times since he joined the Panthers, scoring at least three goals in six of those games. Of course, the same could be said for the Panthers against Canes netminder Frederik Andersen, albeit with a smaller sample size. Since joining the Canes, Andersen has faced Florida three times, allowing a whopping 11 goals. The Panthers, despite being listed as the underdog in all 12 playoff games to date, have displayed a fairly reliable offensive floor, held to fewer than two goals on only two previous occasions. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 20-10 with the Panthers seeking revenge for a loss by two goals or more against an opponent this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.1 goals. Take the over (8*). |
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05-18-23 | Guardians v. White Sox OVER 8 | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The White Sox have taken the first two games of this series in lopsided fashion and they're favored again in Thursday's finale. I do think the Guardians give them a run here, but rather than back Cleveland in an underdog role, we'll go with the 'over' as I believe this total will prove too low. Logan Allen will get his fifth big league start for the Guardians. It seems as if the book might already be out on him after he looked terrific in his first two outings before getting roughed up in his last two. All told, Allen has posted a solid 3.26 FIP but a less-than-impressive 1.48 WHIP in 21 innings of work this season. Of the 95 batters he has faced, 31 have reached base including two home runs allowed. Dylan Cease will counter for Chicago. He's been terrific in his last three starts against the Guardians (all coming last season) but I don't believe this is a particularly favorable matchup for the right-hander this season. As I've noted time and time again this season, the Guardians do put a lot of pressure on opposing pitchers that have a tendency to put runners on base as they have speed to burn and are ultra-aggressive on the basepaths. Cease certainly fits the bill as one of those pitchers as he has allowed 72-of-212 batters he has faced to reach base in 46 1/3 innings of work this season. Note that Cease hasn't come close to matching last season's scintillating numbers (he finished second in American League Cy Young Award voting), logging a 4.12 FIP and 1.45 WHIP here in 2023. Also note that he'll be making his third straight start on short rest (four days). The two bullpens have been a mixed bag. The Guardians relief corps has generally been terrific, posting a collective 3.17 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. The White Sox 'pen on the other hand has struggled to the tune of a 5.77 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Between the two bullpens we've seen 17 blown saves (compared to 24 converted) so far this season. The Guardians are still without Jose Ramirez and possibly Josh Naylor as well but that's been properly factored into the total in my opinion. Take the over (8*). |
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05-17-23 | Cubs v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games in this series both went 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold in Wednesday's series-finale. Chicago has now seen the 'over' cash in a season-high seven straight games. Its longest previous 'over' streak lasted only three games (twice). The interesting thing about this run of 'over' results is the fact that the Cubs aren't actually scoring with much consistency. They've plated 4, 10, 6, 1, 3, 4 and 3 runs during the streak. The question becomes whether the Cubs pitching staff can turn the tide and I believe it can on Wednesday. Veteran left-hander Drew Smyly will get the start for Chicago. He's been a bright spot in the Cubs rotation - turning back the clock to the tune of a 3.57 FIP and 0.97 WHIP in eight starts covering a span of 44 1/3 innings. Of the 176 batters Smyly has faced, only 45 have reached base. Chicago elected to essentially wave the white flag from the seventh inning on last night, keeping its best bullpen arms in reserve. The Cubs 'pen has struggled lately but still entered last night's contest sporting a collective 3.17 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in night games this season (4.11 ERA and 1.21 WHIP overall). J.P. France will get his third straight start in the Astros rotation having impressed in the first two. He got the call to the Show after posting a 2.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level earlier this season. Since joining the Astros, France has recorded a 3.82 FIP and 0.69 WHIP, allowing just 9-of-44 batters to reach base. Behind France is a terrific Astros bullpen that has posted a collective 3.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only four blown this season (entering last night's action). Take the under (8*). |
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05-16-23 | Twins v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams were involved in an extra innings slugfest to open this series last night. In fact, the 'over' has now cashed in each of the Twins last four games following a six-game 'under' streak. I look for that run of high-scoring contests to come to an end here. Bailey Ober will get the start for the visiting Twins. He has impressed since getting the call to the bigs this season, posting a 3.31 FIP and 0.90 WHIP in 24 1/3 innings of work. He did get tagged for two home runs in his last start but those were his first two long balls allowed this season. Of the 92 batters Ober has faced this season, only 22 have managed to reach base. Behind Ober is a Twins bullpen that wasn't up to par last night but has generally been solid this season, recording a collective 3.66 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. On the road Minnesota's relief corps has converted five saves while blowing only two. Clayton Kershaw will counter for Los Angeles. He's enjoying another terrific campaign, logging a 3.55 FIP and 0.95 WHIP. Like Ober he has been bitten by the long ball over his last couple of outings but has still allowed just 1.3 home runs per nine innings this season and I would anticipate continued positive regression in that department noting he hasn't given up more than 1.2 HR/9 since the 2019 season. Kershaw has allowed just 48-of-193 batters to reach base and will have the benefit of starting on full rest (five days) here. He faced the Twins once last season, tossing seven shutout innings in a 7-0 Dodgers victory in Minnesota. The Los Angeles bullpen has settled down after a shaky start to the season, posting a collective 4.18 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only four blown. Take the under (8*). |
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05-16-23 | Diamondbacks v. A's OVER 9 | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Diamondbacks cruised to a 5-2 victory. I expect a much different result from a totals perspective on Tuesday as we have an unappealing starting pitching matchup between Tommy Henry of Arizona and Kyle Muller of Oakland. Henry will be making his second straight start on short rest (four days) and that doesn't bode well after he pitched a season-high 6 2/3 innings in his most recent outing. Note that Henry has posted a 5.01 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while allowing 32-of-93 batters he has faced to reach base so far this season. That's after he had logged a lofty 6.33 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 21 1/3 innings of work at the Triple-A level. Behind Henry is a D'Backs bullpen that has posted a collective 4.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP this season but hasn't had an off day since May 4th. A's starter Kyle Muller was a key piece coming over in the Sean Murphy trade to Atlanta in the offseason. So far this year, Muller hasn't panned out, recording a 5.75 FIP and 1.95 WHIP with 77 of the 185 batters he has faced managing to reach base. The A's bullpen has been among the worst in baseball this season, posting a collective 6.79 ERA and 1.70 WHIP with four saves converted and nine blown. Note that the A's haven't had a day off since May 1st, obviously further complicating their late inning decisions in this series. Take the over (8*). |
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05-16-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets OVER 222.5 | 126-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. The oddsmakers did a good job of setting totals in the Lakers previous series against the Warriors with five of the six games finishing within 4.5 points of the closing total. We saw the totals edge lower as that series went on and here in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals we're seeing a significantly lower total than we saw in Game 1 against the Warriors. With all of that being said, I don't believe the shift is warranted. Last round I talked on numerous occasions about how the Lakers had a solid floor in terms of scoring production against the Warriors but not all that high of a ceiling. I believe we're dealing with a different set of circumstances here against the Nuggets, noting that Los Angeles has knocked down 40 or more field goals in six straight meetings in this series but has also shown the ability to break out, making good on 46 or more field goals in three of those six contests. On the flip side, Denver has knocked down more than 40 field goals in six of the last seven matchups in this series, making good on 46 or more in four of those contests. The Nuggets are in excellent form off a series against Phoenix in which they connected on 42 or more field goals in five of six games. The Lakers continue to afford their opponents a ton of scoring opportunities having allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 games. While Los Angeles' offense did get bogged down a bit as the series went on against Golden State, that will happen when you're playing every other day over a 10-day stretch. Note that the Lakers have played on three or more days' rest, as is the case here, on four previous occasions this season (not including their season-opener) and have knocked down 43, 42, 49 and 43 field goals in those four contests, producing an average point total of 124.3 points in that situation. Take the over (8*). |
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05-16-23 | Cubs v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring series-opener between these former N.L. Central rivals last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday. While Cubs starter Justin Steele saw his last start fly 'over' the total in a 10-4 Cubs rout of the Cardinals. We'll continue to smash the 'under' button with Steele on the hill, however, noting that he has logged a 3.22 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while allowing just 53-of-192 batters he has faced to reach base this season. That coming on the heels of a 2022 campaign in which Steele impressively posted a 3.20 FIP and 1.35 WHIP in 24 starts spanning 119 innings of work. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. He recorded a 3.16 FIP and 0.95 WHIP last year yet was snubbed in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. So far this season, Javier has posted a 3.37 FIP and 1.01 WHIP. He has struck out 35 batters over his last four outings. It's also worth noting that both of tonight's starters will be taking the ball on full rest (five days). While the Cubs bullpen has wobbled a bit lately, it still owns a collective 4.11 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the season. Meanwhile, the Astros 'pen has posted a terrific 3.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with those numbers lowering to 2.53 and 0.84 respectively over the last seven games. Take the under (10*). |
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05-15-23 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 8-9 | Win | 105 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring games yesterday. In fact, the Rockies have seen the 'under' cash in each of their last four games, matching their longest such streak of the season. The last time they posted four straight 'under' results, their next game totalled 14 runs right here at home against the Diamondbacks. I look for a similar story to unfold here as they open a series against the Reds on Monday. Hunter Greene will take the ball for Cincinnati. We were fairly high on the young right-hander earlier in the campaign but the numbers don't lie at this point and he has really struggled lately. Greene checks in sporting a 3.48 FIP and 1.49 WHIP with 61-of-176 batters he has faced reaching base. It gets a lot worse when you consider he has been tagged for seven earned runs on 13 hits, including three home runs, over his last two outings, covering a span of just 11 innings of work. Greene has pitched here at hitter-friendly Coors Field just once previously in his career (last season), allowing four earned runs on six hits including two home runs in just 4 1/3 innings. Connor Seabold will counter for Colorado. He's made just two big league starts so far this season but has also logged time out of the bullpen. All told, Seabold owns a 5.33 FIP and 1.44 WHIP, allowing 39-of-107 batters he has faced to reach base including four home runs in only 23 2/3 innings of work. Note that the Reds actually faced Seabold last September and chased him after scoring four earned runs in five innings. Both bullpens have held up better than expected so far this season but I would also firmly place both in the 'overworked' category at this point, the Reds' in particular as it entered yesterday's action having logged a whopping 38 collective innings over the last seven games. Also note that the Reds haven't had a day off since last Monday, which obviously doesn't help matters. Take the over (8*). |
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05-14-23 | Rangers v. A's OVER 9 | 11-3 | Win | 105 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Texas and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams yesterday but I expect a different story to unfold in Sunday‘s series-finale. Andrew Heaney will take the ball for the Rangers. As I’ve noted on previous occasions this season, he’s pitching for his fourth different team since 2021. Heaney has struggled so far this year, logging a 5.73 FIP and 1.22 WHIP. The A’s will be getting their second look at the left-hander this season after collecting five hits and two walks over six innings on April 22nd. Drew Rucinski will get another turn in the A’s starting rotation out of necessity only. He’s been predictably awful in his return to the majors (prior to this year he last pitched for the Marlins in 2018), posting a 7.27 FIP and 2.09 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings this season. Of the 73 batters he has faced, 31 have reached base. To make matters worse, Rucinski will be making his second straight start on short rest (four days). Of course, the A’s bullpen has been awful as well, logging a collective 6.72 ERA and 1.72 WHIP with only four saves converted and nine blown. The Rangers relief corps has been far better but still has just eight saves converted compared to six blown so the door should be open for potential late offense if needed here. Take the over (8*). |
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05-13-23 | Cubs v. Twins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Minnesota at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. This matchup will feature two underrated starting pitchers in Hayden Wesneski of the Cubs and Joe Ryan of the Twins. While last night's series-opener snuck 'over' the total, I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon. Wesneski will start on full (five days) rest for the first time in his last five outings. He's pitched well nonetheless, allowing just three earned runs in 17 innings of work over his last three starts. After getting off to a shaky start that included six walks and three home runs allowed in his first two outings this season (covering a span of just six innings), Wesneski has really settled down and checks in having allowed 44-of-145 batters he has faced to reach base. The Twins have had to scratch and claw for seemingly every run lately, scoring 2, 3, 0, 1, 4, 5 and 2 runs over their last seven contests. Joe Ryan will take the ball for Minnesota. He's been lights out in the early going this season and doesn't get enough credit for how well he has pitched over the course of his three-year big league career. Ryan owns a 2.82 FIP and 0.84 WHIP in seven starts spanning 44 innings this season. Only 38-of-169 batters he has faced have managed to reach base. Both bullpens have held up reasonably well so far this season with the Cubs relief corps' in particular shining lately to the tune of a collective 1.45 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over the last seven games. They did use two key relievers in Adbert Alzolay and Mark Leiter Jr. in last night's game but both have proven capable of working back-to-back games this season. The Twins 'pen has logged a collective 3.81 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this season and they kept two key relief arms in Jhoan Duran and closer Jorge Lopez idle last night. Take the under (10*). |
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05-12-23 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 221.5 | Top | 101-122 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Friday. We're finally seeing a significant adjustment made to the total in this series, even after Game 5 ended up sneaking 'over' the closing number. I still feel Friday's total will prove too high. The Warriors went off offensively, knocking down 47-of-92 field goal attempts in Wednesday's victory. That was at home. They've made good on 43 or fewer field goals in five of their six playoff road games. On a similar note, the Lakers have now held their opponents to 36, 35, 42 (overtime game), 29, 36 and 40 made field goals in seven home playoff games (including the Play-In Tournament game against Minnesota). As I've mentioned throughout this series, while Los Angeles does have a fairly solid floor in terms of offensive production against the Warriors, it doesn't have a particularly high ceiling, topping out at 43 made field goals in nine matchups going back to the start of the regular season. Both teams are dealing with injury issues, as is often the case at this stage of the playoffs, with the Warriors listing Andrew Wiggins as questionable to play due to a rib injury and Anthony Davis probable after a possible concussion. I would anticipate both playing on Friday but certainly Wiggins - a key offensive contributor for the Warriors - won't be 100% healthy. As I've also noted throughout this series, the Warriors are on quite a defensive run having held 21 of their last 22 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals with the 'under' going 12-10 over that stretch. Finally, I'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 36-17 with Golden State playing on the road off a double-digit win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-12-23 | Oilers v. Golden Knights OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Vegas at 10:10 pm et on Friday. We've now seen each of the last three games in this series stay 'under' the total after a wild, high-scoring series-opener that produced 10 goals. Here, I believe we're well-positioned to back the 'over' as the Golden Knights look to answer back following a 4-1 loss in an animosity-filled Game 4. Of course, both teams will be without a defenseman due to suspension in this contest with Darnell Nurse of the Oilers and Alex Pietrangelo of the Knights forced to sit. Neither has provided much offensive spark in these playoffs but certainly play key roles on the blue line and will be missed here. I believe Pietrangelo's absence in particular further opens things up for the Oilers explosive offense as the Knights simply don't have anyone waiting in the wings capable of replacing the veteran's steadiness in critical moments (most notably against a lethal Oilers power play as Pietrangelo works on the Knights top penalty kill unit). Here, we'll note that Edmonton averages an impressive 4.1 goals per game on the road this season but that number rises to 4.6 when facing division opponents (18-game sample size). Note that the Oilers will likely be facing Knights goaltender Adin Hill again here, noting that they've now seen him in two previous starts, scoring eight goals on 56 shots (good for a weak .857 save percentage on Hill's part). Vegas checks in averaging 3.3 goals per game on home ice this season but that number rises considerably to 4.3 when coming off a road loss (seven-game sample size). Also note that we've seen the 'over' go 9-1 with the Knights seeking revenge for a road loss by three goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 7.3 goals in that situation. Better still, even with the 'under' cashing in the last three games in this series, the 'over' is 21-9 with Edmonton coming off an 'under' result this season, resulting in 7.7 total goals on average in that spot. We haven't seen four straight meetings in this series stay 'under' the total since a four-game 'under' streak from April 2019 to March 2020. Take the over (10*). |
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05-11-23 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 213.5 | 95-86 | Win | 100 | 31 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We've now seen each of the last three games in this series go 'over' the total which sends Game 6 into 'uncharted territory', at least in recent years. I say that because we haven't seen four straight matchups between these two teams go 'over' the total since 2016-17. The pace certainly wasn't there to dictate such a high-scoring result in Game 5 on Tuesday. Boston got off 83 field goal attempts in that game while Philadelphia countered with only 79. The 76ers quite simply shot the lights out but I expect the Celtics to make the necessary defensive adjustments here as they face potential elimination on Thursday night. Since allowing the Sixers to knock down 45 field goals in Game 1 of this series, Boston has held Philadelphia to just 31, 31, 42 and 40 made field goals over the last four contests. On the flip side, the 76ers have now limited each of their last 10 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. In fact, nine of Philadelphia's last 10 opponents have gotten off 87 or fewer FG attempts. The lone outlier came back in Game 2 of this series last week - the only game that happened to stay 'under' the total in this series to date. Here, we'll note that the 'under' remains a long-term 231-187 with the Celtics seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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05-11-23 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 10 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. Thursday's series-finale between these two A.L. Central cellar-dwellers features a subpar starting pitching matchup between Mike Clevinger of the White Sox and Brady Singer of the Royals. The book seems to once again be out on Clevinger as he re-acclimates himself with the American League after spending the last couple of years with the Padres. Of course, Clevinger missed the entire 2021 season before returning to log 114 1/3 innings last year. He struggled to the tune of a 4.97 FIP and 1.20 WHIP and has been even worse in the early going this season, recording a 5.19 FIP and 1.53 WHIP in seven starts spanning 35 1/3 innings. Of the 160 batters Clevinger has faced, 56 have reached base including six home runs - all coming in his last four outings. Note that Clevinger will be starting on short rest (four days) for the third time this season. On the two previous occasions he was tagged for five earned runs and lasted only eight innings. Singer has been a bit of an enigma in the first several years of his big league career. He had a terrific 2022 campaign by most accounts, logging a 3.58 FIP and 1.14 WHIP. That appears to be an outlier, however, as he has struggled again this season, posting a 5.40 FIP and 1.60 WHIP, allowing 57 of the 156 batters he has faced to reach base. Like Clevinger, Singer will also be pitching on just four days' rest on Thursday. In three previous starts on short rest this season, Singer has been lit up for 18 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings of work. This matchup also pits two of the worst bullpens in baseball with the White Sox relief corps' entering last night's action sporting a collective 6.21 ERA and 1.63 WHIP on the season and the Royals 'pen logging a 5.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Prior to last night's contest, the two bullpens had combined to blow 11 saves (while converting 11) already this season. Take the over (8*). |
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05-10-23 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games in this series have stayed 'under' the total but I look for a different story to unfold in Wednesday's series-finale. Edward Cabrera will take the ball for the visiting Marlins. He's coming off a 2022 campaign in which he posted a terrific 3.01 ERA but that didn't tell the whole story as he logged a 4.59 FIP in 14 starts, spanning 71 2/3 innings. Perhaps that was a sign of things to come as he has labored through seven outings this season, posting a 5.13 FIP and 1.66 WHIP while allowing a whopping 54-of-148 batters he has faced to reach base. He'll be starting on four days' rest for just the third time this season having allowed four earned runs in 10 innings in his previous two outings on short rest. Merrill Kelly will counter for Arizona. He owns an impressive 2.75 ERA this season but again, that doesn't tell the whole story as he has logged a 3.88 FIP. The Marlins have seemingly had Kelly's number as he has faced them three times previously, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. That includes a start here in Arizona last season in which he was tagged for three earned runs on seven hits, including a home run, over five innings in an 11-3 defeat. Like Cabrera, Kelly will also be starting on just four days' rest for the third time this season having allowed seven earned runs in 11 innings in his two previous outings on short rest. The Marlins bullpen has posted a collective 4.94 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road this season while the Arizona relief corps' has struggled lately to the tune of a collective 5.64 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the last seven games. In fact, over the last seven contests, the two teams have combined to convert only two saves while blowing five. Take the over (8*). |
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05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 228.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 36 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Denver at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The last two games in this series both flew 'over' the total as the Suns answered back after digging an 0-2 hole in Denver with consecutive wins on their home floor. The pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring affair in Game 4 (it reached 153 total points) as the Nuggets hoisted up 89 field goal attempts while the Suns got off only 81. Both teams simply shot the lights out. I don't anticipate a repeat performance from either team as the series shifts back to Denver on Tuesday. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 44-21 with the Nuggets playing at home after allowing their opponent to shoot 55% or better from the field in their previous contest, as is the case here. Denver has been stingy defensively at the best of times at home this season, yielding just 108.5 points per game but that number drops to 107.0 ppg when coming off an 'over' result with that spot producing an average total of 225.2 points (Nuggets home games have averaged 227.2 points overall this season). The fact that the 'over' has cashed in consecutive matchups between these two teams is worth noting as we haven't seen three straight 'over' results in this series in the same season since the 2020-21 campaign (and in that case the third game totalled just 227 points). Take the under (8*). |
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05-08-23 | Nationals v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Sunday and I expect more of the same as they open a three-game series in San Francisco on Monday. Jake Irvin will get the start for the visiting Nationals. He's in the Washington starting rotation due to necessity only at this point. In his first big league start he gave up just one earned run on two hits over 4 1/3 innings but did walk four batters while hitting another with a pitch (and only struck out three). Note that in five starts at the Triple-A level this season, Irvin allowed 36-of-98 batters he faced to reach base and was tagged for three home runs in 22 1/3 innings of work. His counterpart on Monday will be Anthony DeSclafani. The right-hander probably hasn't been quite as good as his sparkling 2.18 ERA would indicate, logging a 3.38 FIP. He does own an impressive 0.82 WHIP as he has issued just three walks in 38 innings of work. Some regression is almost a certainty at this point and here he'll face a Nationals club that has been at its best on the road this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Washington just finished a series in Arizona in which it scored 17 runs across three games. Also note that the Nats scored 28 runs on 45 hits in a three-game series here in San Francisco last year. Neither bullpen inspires much confidence. Nationals relievers have combined to post a 4.35 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with 10 saves converted and seven blown. Meanwhile, the Giants 'pen has been among the worst in baseball, recording a collective 6.04 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with nine saves converted and six blown. Take the over (10*). |
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05-07-23 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 228 | Top | 124-129 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Phoenix at 8 pm et on Sunday. It seems like the oddsmakers are playing 'catch-up' with the totals in this series, making the usual adjustments after the fact but ultimately overreacting in hindsight (as is often the case). Game 1 saw 232 total points so the total was adjusted a couple of points higher for Game 2, which ended up reaching only 184 points. For Game 3, the total was adjusted considerably lower only for that contest to sail 'over' with 235 total points. Here, we're again working with a higher posted total and I believe it will prove too high. The Nuggets were baited into a much faster-paced affair than they probably would have liked in Game 3, hoisting up 97 field goal attempts themselves while allowing the Suns to get off 95. As we anticipated, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant relished the opportunity to play 'hero ball' down 2-0 in the series and with most counting them out with Chris Paul sidelined. The pair combined to knock down 32 field goals and score a whopping 86 points in the victory. I'm confident we'll see the Nuggets make the necessary adjustments here, noting that they had held 10 straight and an incredible 19 of their last 20 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals prior to Phoenix knocking down 48 in that contest. As I mentioned, Denver got off 97 FG attempts in Friday's loss. You would have to go back to March 31st and April 2nd to find the last time it hoisted up more than 90 FG attempts in consecutive games though, and those previous two contests still totalled only 193 and 222 points. Phoenix didn't look good defensively in Game 1 of this series but has held Denver to just 36 and 43 made field goals in two games since. Note that the Suns have limited 30 of their last 37 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. While Phoenix went off in Game 3, it had previously been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in five consecutive meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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05-07-23 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Diego at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. This matchup screams 'pitcher's duel' on paper with the Dodgers handing the ball to their ace Julio Urias against Joe Musgrove on Sunday. We'll go the other way, however, as neither starter has been able to find their form - at least not consistently - in the early going this season. Of course, in Joe Musgrove's defense, he's only made two starts since returning from injury. Neither outing went well, however, as he has logged an 8.16 FIP and 1.68 WHIP in 8 1/3 innings of work, allowing 15-of-39 batters to reach base including four home runs allowed. Concerning is the fact that he also struggled in a pair of minor league starts, allowing 15-of-43 batters to reach base. The Dodgers saw Musgrove four times last season, scoring nine earned runs in 23 1/3 innings. Dodgers starter Julio Urias didn't have a good Spring, or World Baseball Classic for that matter, and has struggled to find any sort of consistency so far this season. Urias checks in sporting a 4.40 FIP and 1.11 WHIP, allowing 45-of-160 batters he has faced to reach base. While he is coming off one of his best outings, allowing just one earned run over seven innings against the slumping Phillies, he'll now be starting on short rest (four days) for the second straight outing - the first time he's done that since last season (June 29th and July 4th). Neither bullpen has been overly impressive in the early going this season. The Dodgers relief corps entered Saturday's action sporting a collective 4.38 ERA and 1.42 WHIP while the Padres 'pen had logged a 4.03 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Needless to say, both lineups have the ability to put a lot of pressure on opposing pitching staffs and after a couple of low-scoring games to open this series, I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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05-07-23 | Hurricanes v. Devils UNDER 5.5 | 4-8 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and New Jersey at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. The first two games of this series have gone 'over' the total with the Hurricanes doing most of the heavy-lifting, scoring 11 goals compared to the Devils' two. Note that we haven't seen three straight meetings between these two teams go 'over' the total in the same season since way back in the 2013-14 campaign. You would have to go back to a three-game stretch that spanned between 2019 and 2022 (thanks to Covid) to find the last time any three consecutive matchups between these division rivals went 'over' the total. I would anticipate the Devils turning to Vitek Vanecek between the pipes in Game 3. He's played a big role in New Jersey's incredibly stingy nature here at home this season, where it has allowed just 2.6 goals per game. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 23-9 with the Devils playing at home seeking revenge for a loss by four goals or more against an opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Canes have seen the 'under' go 11-3 when coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, resulting in an average total of just 4.8 goals in that situation. Finally, we'll note that Carolina has averaged just 2.3 goals per game with an average total of only 5.2 goals when playing on the road after winning four of its last five contests over the last two seasons (26-game sample size), which is also the situation here. Take the under (8*). |
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05-06-23 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 228 | 97-127 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The first two games of this series both went 'over' the total (using the closing total for Game 2, noting the final score fell right around the number) but I look for a different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Los Angeles for Game 3 on Saturday. Yes, the Warriors continue to give up a ton of scoring opportunities, yielding 90 or more field goal attempts in an incredible 15 straight games. However, there's been a method to their madness as they've held 18 of their last 19 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. The Lakers don't figure to be the ones to break through, at least not right now as they've knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in six of their last seven games and that's despite hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in each of their last six contests. Speaking of defense, Los Angeles turned in a poor effort at that end of the floor in Thursday's predictable Warriors bounce-back game. Still, the Lakers have held eight of their last nine and 12 of their last 15 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. While the Warriors can still get hot at times, as we saw in Game 2 of this series, they've actually made good on 43 or fewer field goals in six of nine games in these playoffs. Also note that while the 'over' has cashed in the first two games of this series, Golden State hasn't seen three straight games go 'over' the total since a four-game 'over' streak way back in early February. The Lakers have had just one 'over' streak last more than two games going all the way back to December 28th, but it was a long one with eight straight contests finding their way 'over' the total from March 26th to April 9th. Take the under (8*). |
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05-05-23 | Red Sox v. Phillies OVER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams enter Friday's series-opener riding 'over' streaks with the Red Sox having seen each of their last four games (all against the Blue Jays) sail 'over' the total and the Phillies coming off a three-game set against the Dodgers in which all three contests went 'over' the total as well. I expect a similar story to unfold on Friday. One week ago tonight the Red Sox put plenty of pressure on Guardians ace Shane Bieber but couldn't break through in a 5-2 defeat. Since then, they've exploded for 8, 7, 6, 7, 8 and 11 runs over their last six games. Of course, they've also allowed five runs or more in 10 of their last 12 contests but we'll get to that in a moment. While the Sox draw a tough matchup in Phillies ace Zack Wheeler on Friday, I'm confident they'll be able to find continued success. After a shaky start to the season, Wheeler has turned it around over his last several starts, lowering his FIP to 2.54 and his WHIP to 1.22. Those numbers are relatively on par with what we've seen from the underrated right-hander going back to the start of 2021. With that being said, I do think he's in for some regression to the mean in terms of home runs allowed (he's given up just one in 32 2/3 innings of work this season) and what better opponent to contribute to that than the Red Sox, who have already mashed 46 home runs this season. I'll also point out that Wheeler has yet to work beyond the sixth inning this season and just twice in his last 18 outings going back to last year, leaving the door open for a struggling Phillies bullpen to step in and make things interesting, noting it has logged a collective 5.59 ERA and 1.56 WHIP this season. Chris Sale will get the start for the visiting Red Sox. He was terrific in his most recent outing against the slumping Guardians. That start came at home, where he's pitched reasonably well this season. The road has been another story as he has posted an 8.36 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in three outings spanning 14 innings of work. Overall, Sale checks in sporting a 4.63 FIP and 1.47 WHIP with 47 of the 134 batters he has faced reaching base. He'll be up against a rejuvenated Phillies lineup that just welcomed back Bryce Harper earlier this week. Harper proceeded to go 3-for-3 in his second game back. Table-setter Trea Turner enters this series on a five-game hitting streak. There's danger up and down the Philadelphia lineup and this is obviously a team built for its home ballpark, averaging 4.6 runs per game in 13 home games so far this season (compared to its season scoring average of 4.3 rpg). The Red Sox bullpen has held up well, much better than I expected at the outset of the season, logging a collective 3.44 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. However, it does enter this contest having not had a day off since April 27th and we're talking about a relief corps that has been overworked, having already been called into action for 128 1/3 innings this season. I can't help but think some regression will be coming for the Boston 'pen and the Phillies lineup poses a significant challenge. Take the over (10*). |
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05-03-23 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 217 | Top | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Boston at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 of this series sailed 'over' the total witb both teams shooting the lights out in a 119-115 76ers victory in Boston. I expect a much different story to unfold on Wednesday. The pace certainly didn't dictate such a high-scoring affair in the series-opener. Philadelphia hoisted up 89 field goal attempts while Boston got off just 75 in a stunning home defeat. Note that the 76ers knocked down 45 field goals - just the fourth time in their last 17 games that they managed to connect on more than 42 field goals. On the flip side, the 44 made field goals they allowed served as the first time in six games they yielded 40 or more successful field goal attempts. In fact, Philadelphia has still limited 18 of its last 23 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While Boston hasn't been as stout defensively as we've become accustomed to seeing in these playoffs, I am confident it can bounce back from Monday's poor showing in Game 2. Note that the Celtics have held 18 of their last 21 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals - not a bad high-water mark in that department when you consider they've allowed 89 or more FG attempts in 10 straight and 14 of their last 15 contests. As I've noted previously in these playoffs, the C's have been yielding too many scoring opportunities but the 76ers are unlikely to continue to push the pace the way they did in Game 1, noting they've hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in 13 of their last 16 games and average just 84 FG attempts per game this season. Finally, we'll note that the Celtics are heading into uncharted territory having matched their longest 'over' streak of the season at five games. Interestingly, the only previous time they posted five consecutive 'over' results, their next game stayed 'under' the total against these same 76ers. Take the under (10*). |
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05-03-23 | Devils v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Jersey and Carolina at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pair of relatively high-scoring affairs to open the second round of the NHL Playoffs last night. I expect nothing of the sort as the Devils and Hurricanes do battle in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semi-final series on Wednesday, however. New Jersey has averaged 3.4 goals per game this season but its offensive production fell off a cliff in round one against the Rangers, partly by design. The Devils averaged only 2.4 goals per contest during that seven-game series and we got a pretty good indication of how they want to play in the postseason as they often sat back defensively, waiting for the opportunity to counter-attack, ultimately firing fewer than 30 shots on goal in five of seven contests. I don't think Lindy Ruff's team will want to trade scoring opportunities with Carolina either, certainly not in the first two games of the series here in Raleigh. Note that the Hurricanes offense wasn't exactly humming in the opening round either, averaging 2.7 goals per game over the course of that six-game series against the Islanders. The Canes have of course had to make some adjustments with Andrei Svechnikov - scoring option 1B to Sebastian Aho's 1A - going down with a season-ending injury late in the regular season and then losing Teuvo Teravainen to a broken hand in round one as well. Carolina boasts one of the strongest defensive corps of any team remaining in the NHL Playoffs and I believe that group will prove difficult to break down in this series. The Canes have allowed just 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season with that number dropping to 2.2 when coming off a victory over a divisional opponent (13-game sample size), as is the case here. It's worth mentioning that while these two teams have met eight times since the start of 2022, we could be seeing a new goaltending matchup here as Devils breakout netminder Akira Schmid has never faced Carolina while Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen hasn't taken the crease against New Jersey since he was a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs (he owns a 2.11 goals against average .934 save percentage in nine career games vs. the Devils). Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 157-109 with the Devils coming off a home win in which they scored four goals or more, which is the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-03-23 | Guardians v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games of this series have been of the low-scoring variety with the two teams trading victories. I expect a different story to unfold in Wednesday's series-finale in the Bronx. Shane Bieber will take the ball for the visiting Guardians. While he's pitched well in the early going this season, he perhaps hasn't quite lived up to lofty expectations. Note that his 3.63 FIP would serve as a career-high while his 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings would mark a career-low. In his most recent start last Friday, he worked himself in and out of trouble on numerous occasions in an eventual 5-2 win over the Red Sox. Note that Bieber has recorded more than four strikeouts in a game only once in six starts this season and that's despite working at least into the sixth inning in all six of those outings. I'll also point out that this will be his first start on short (four days) rest this season. He owns a 5.73 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in six career starts against the Yankees. Clarke Schmidt remains in the Yankees starting rotation out of necessity only. You have to wonder if he's long for a big league rotation based on how things have gone for the right-hander so far this season. Schmidt checks in sporting a 5.53 FIP and 1.68 WHIP in 25 innings of work - a far cry from the 3.60 FIP and 1.20 WHIP he posted mostly working out of the bullpen last year. Of the 119 batters Schmidt has faced this season, 44 have reached base. He's already been tagged for seven home runs. Now he faces a Guardians lineup that as I've mentioned on numerous occasions this season is ultra-aggressive and has speed to burn on the basepaths, having already racked up 35 stolen bases this season. They're going to apply plenty of pressure on Schmidt and you have to figure they're in line for a breakout performance after being held to just six runs over the last three games. Note that Cleveland entered last night's contest averaging 4.5 runs per game on the road this season. Both bullpens are elite and have certainly excelled so far this season. I will point out that the Yankees have used key reliever Wandy Peralta in each of the first two games in this series meaning he's likely unavailable on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Guardians 'pen has been dealing with a tough stretch from usually-reliable setup man James Karinchak. I do think the terrific overall numbers from both relief corps' have been properly factored in when you consider this relatively-low posted total. Take the over (8*). |
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05-02-23 | Lakers v. Warriors OVER 227 | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams wrapped up round one of the NBA Playoffs with consecutive 'under' results. In fact, the 'under' went 4-1 in the final five games of the Lakers 4-2 series win over the Grizzlies. The 'under' cashed in four of the last six games in the Warriors 4-3 series victory over the Kings. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 1 of this Western Conference semi-final round series on Tuesday, however. Both of these teams invite up-tempo play from the opposition. Interestingly, the Lakers allowed 93, 106 (aided by overtime), 99 and 96 field goal attempts over their last four games against the Grizzlies. Memphis was simply unable to take advantage of its wealth of scoring opportunities, running cold at the absolute worst time (the Grizzlies made good on 44 or fewer field goals in all six contests). I don't expect the Warriors to suffer the same fate. The ramped up offensively as the series went on against the Kings, knocking down 40 or more field goals and hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in four of the final five games in the opening round. In fact, Golden State has gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in nine of its last 12 contests and has hoisted up 100 or more FG attempts on five different occasions since February 23rd. On the flip side, the Warriors have yielded 90 or more FG attempts to their opponents in an incredible 13 straight games. With the Lakers rounding into form offensively, making good on more than 40 field goals in 11 of their last 14 contests and getting off 90 or more FG attempts in 11 of their last 13 overall, I believe this game sets up as a potential track meet. Keep in mind, the Lakers - despite not always being at full strength - managed to knock down 40 or more field goals in all four regular season meetings with the Warriors. Meanwhile, Golden State had little trouble finding looks, hoisting up 99, 96, 105 and 91 FG attempts in those four matchups. In eight meetings between these two teams since the start of last season, the low water mark in terms of points scored for either team was 103 with both teams putting up more than 110 points in five of those eight contests. Take the over (10*). |
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05-02-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars OVER 5.5 | 5-4 | Win | 109 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Dallas at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams enter this series riding 'under' streaks. The final four games of the Kraken's stunning first round upset of the defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche stayed 'under' the total while the Stars saw each of their last three contests against the Wild cruise 'under' the total as well. I expect a different story to unfold as the two teams meet in the postseason for the first time on Tuesday. While Kraken goaltender Philipp Grubauer certainly appeared to have the Avs number in round one, I think he'll be hard-pressed to repeat his heroics here in round two. Note that Dallas has faced Grubauer twice in the brief series history between these two teams, scoring nine goals in those two contests. It's actually a similar story for the Kraken against Stars netminder Jake Oettinger. He's been between the pipes for Dallas in all six previous meetings in this series with Seattle scoring 18 goals and no fewer than two goals in any of those games. Of course, it's not all about the goaltenders. We're going to need this game to open up considerably compared to what we saw in the latter stages of the two teams' respective opening round series'. Here, we'll note that while Seattle averages 3.4 goals per game on the season, that average rises to 3.8 when playing on the road off a road victory (29-game sample size), as is the case here. The Stars have been fairly stingy on home ice, allowing just 2.7 goals per game this season but that average jumps to 4.0 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it scored five goals or more (eight-game sample size), which is also the situation here (Kraken won the last meeting 5-4 in Dallas). In fact, the 'over' has gone a perfect 5-0 with Dallas playing at home seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent this season, with that spot producing an average total of 9.2 goals. While playoff hockey tends to be lower-scoring, I would argue that the stakes were similarly high for both teams - keeping in mind this is only Game 1 of this series - when they matched up three times over an 11-day span back in March (the Kraken were fighting to get in the playoffs while the Stars were battling for playoff seeding). Those three games totalled seven, seven and nine goals (the last result was aided by overtime). Take the over (8*). |
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05-02-23 | Reds v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The series-opener between these two teams sailed 'over' the total last night as the Padres cruised to an 8-3 victory - their third win in a row. After a red hot stretch at the plate last week (30 runs in four games), Cincinnati has cooled off, scoring only 10 runs over their last three contests. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair at Petco Park on Tuesday. Graham Ashcraft will get the start for the visiting Reds. I consider him to be one of the more underrated young starters in baseball, noting that he posted a 4.21 FIP and 1.42 WHIP in 105 innings of work during his rookie campaign last year - not bad numbers at all when you consider the majority of his starts take place at the bandbox that is Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. So far this season, Ashcraft has recorded a 3.82 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, working at least six innings in four of his five starts to date. Note that he held opponents to less than 1.0 home run and 3.0 walks per nine innings last season. He's once again keeping the ball in the park this year, yielding just one home run in 30 frames of work - that coming in his first outing of the season. His walks are up but I am confident he can regain his command and he's made up for it by increasing his strikeouts per nine innings and limiting his hits allowed. All told, only 36-of-123 batters he has faced have reached base. With only 16 stolen bases so far this season, the Padres don't tend to put a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers with men on base. Note also that San Diego entered this series averaging just 3.2 runs per game at Petco Park this season. Veteran Michael Wacha will take the ball for the Padres. He's been better than his inflated 6.75 ERA would indicate, logging a 4.46 FIP and 1.58 WHIP through five starts. Not impressive numbers by any means but they're largely due to consecutive rocky outings in mid-April. He pitched reasonably well last time out, holding a good Cubs lineup to four hits, one walk and three earned runs over five innings. Behind Wacha is a Padres bullpen that I believe is in for some positive regression having entered this series sporting a collective 4.43 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. On a positive note, San Diego has converted 11 saves while blowing only four (entering Monday's action). The Reds bullpen has actually been getting stronger as the season goes on. Entering this series, Cincinnati relievers had logged a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over the last seven games. Blown saves have been an issue with six on the season but the Reds don't project to be playing with a lead late in this game (of course it's always a possibility). Both teams were able to keep most of their key relievers rested last night, especially the Padres, who got six solid innings from starter Blake Snell and only used two relief arms in Steven Wilson and Domingo Tapia. Take the under (8*). |
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05-01-23 | Phillies v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively low-scoring weekend series'. In fact, the Phillies saw all three games in Houston stay 'under' the total and enter the new week on a four-game 'under' streak. Meanwhile, the Dodgers seven-game 'over' streak ground to a halt in a 1-0 victory over the Cardinals on Saturday before yesterday's game snuck 'under' the total as well. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday. Philadelphia will hand the ball to Taijuan Walker. He's had a bit of a rocky start to the campaign and doesn't figure to turn it around against a Dodgers club that has given him plenty of trouble over the course of his career (4.85 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 12 career starts against them). Last season, Walker faced the Dodgers twice, allowing five earned runs on 12 hits and four walks while striking out only seven in 11 innings. So far this season, Walker has been about as bad as his 4.97 ERA indicates, sporting a 5.28 FIP and 1.38 WHIP with 35 of the 108 batters he has faced managing to reach base. Tony Gonsolin will counter for Los Angeles. He'll be making just his second start of the season after a brief return last week. He's certainly not in midseason form just yet, noting that he has allowed five walks in just 6 1/3 innings split between Triple-A and the bigs so far this season. The Phillies are seeing right-handed starters well this season, averaging 5.0 runs per game against them. Note that Gonsolin is unlikely to work deep into this game in just his second start back from injury and that's notable as the Dodgers bullpen hasn't been nearly as steady as we've become accustomed to, logging a collective 4.76 ERA and 1.45 WHIP so far this season. It's been a similar story for the Phillies bullpen, which has posted a 4.42 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Take the over (8*). |
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05-01-23 | Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 227.5 | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Denver at 10:05 pm et on Monday. Game 1 of this series managed to creep 'over' the total thanks to a tremendous offensive performance from the Nuggets. That contest marked only the second time all season that Denver hoisted up 100 or more field goal attempts in a game. I certainly feel that the Suns expected the Nuggets to employ a different, slower-paced offensive gameplan than they did in the series-opener so now it's on Phoenix to make the necessary adjustments defensively. Note that the Suns have only had eight previous what I would term 'outlier' poor defensive efforts - games in which they allowed 48 or more made field goals (as they did in Game 1 of this series). Following those contests, they've allowed 95, 128, 111, 121, 112, 106, 94 and 115 points in their next game, so a bit all over the place, but generally-speaking, they've allowed just north of 110 points per game in that situation, which is right around two points per game below their season average. All that is to say, I do expect Phoenix to bounce back from a defensive standpoint in Game 2. On the flip side, however, I think the Suns are still going to be in tough. Note that Denver has now held 16 of its last 19 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Only four of their last 19 opponents have gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts and one of those was aided by overtime. The 'over' has now cashed in consecutive games involving the Nuggets for the first time since March 10th to 14th. Note that they've incredibly had just three 'over' streaks last three games or more this season with none of those lasting longer than four contests. Take the under (8*). |
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05-01-23 | Cubs v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Nationals avoided a sweep at the hands of the Pirates with a 7-2 victory yesterday, also marking their second straight 'over' result. Note that they've recorded an 'over' streak lasting three games only once previously this season and that came during a series at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Denver. Drew Smyly will take the ball for the visiting Cubs on Monday. He of course flirted with a perfect game two starts back before allowing two earned runs over five innings in a 5-3 loss to the Padres last time out. There's no denying Smyly has enjoyed a renaissance of sorts so far this season, recording a 3.24 FIP and 0.93 WHIP. He's allowed just 28 of the 110 batters he has faced to reach base. In his lone outing against Washington last season, Smyly gave up just two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work in a 3-2 victory here in D.C. Of note, neither of Smyly's last two starts have stayed 'under' the total. He hasn't gone three consecutive outings without an 'under' result since back in 2021 when he posted a five-start 'over' streak. Mackenzie Gore will counter for Washington. He was one of the big pieces coming over in the Juan Soto trade last Summer. Gore has been good but not great so far this season although his numbers are somewhat skewed by one bad outing in which he couldn't make it through the fourth inning against the Angels back on April 12th (that game still totalled only five runs). Through five starts, the left-hander has logged a 3.53 FIP and 1.30 WHIP. Walks have certainly been an issue as he has handed out north of 5.0 free passes per nine innings. However, Gore does have the ability to erase those walks thanks to his high strikeout rate. He is K'ing just shy of 12.0 batters per nine innings. The Cubs should help his cause, noting that they've already struck out 224 times this season - an average of over eight K's per game. The two bullpens are a bit of a mixed bag. Cubs relievers have posted a collective 3.98 ERA and 1.23 WHIP but have converted only three saves while blowing four. Meanwhile, the Nationals 'pen has recorded a 4.38 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with seven saves converted and four blown. What I do like about the two bullpens is the fact that neither has been truly overworked with the Cubs logging 97 1/3 innings and the Nats' working 96 2/3 frames. Take the under (8*). |
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04-30-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Colorado at 9:30 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has now cashed in three straight games in this series and that's not a trend I expect to reverse in Game 7 on Sunday. Keep in mind, we've previously seen a six-game 'under' streak between these two teams and that's notable when you consider there have only been 12 all-time meetings. Similarly, the Avalanche's current three-game 'under' streak has been topped by four previous 'under' runs lasting four games or more this season and that includes a December stretch that saw nine straight games stay 'under' the total. The Kraken have had three previous 'under' streaks lasting more than three games this season as well. We know Seattle will want to make this game as ugly as possible as it looks to pull off the major round one upset in enemy territory. Note that the 'under' is 22-11 with Seattle coming off a game in which it allowed four goals or more this season, as is the case here. The 'under' has gone 24-17-3 in Colorado's home games this season, where it has given up just 2.7 goals per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08-03-23 | Jets v. Browns OVER 33.5 | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
08-02-23 | Padres v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | 11-1 | Push | 0 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
07-31-23 | Red Sox v. Mariners OVER 8 | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
07-30-23 | Calgary v. Montreal OVER 47.5 | 18-25 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
07-29-23 | Mariners v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
07-29-23 | Saskatchewan v. Toronto OVER 47.5 | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
07-27-23 | Guardians v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
07-27-23 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | 10-3 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
07-26-23 | Braves v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
07-23-23 | Ottawa v. Calgary OVER 44.5 | 43-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
07-22-23 | Dodgers v. Rangers UNDER 9 | 16-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 6 m | Show | |
07-21-23 | Giants v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
07-20-23 | Twins v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
07-19-23 | Twins v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
07-19-23 | Yankees v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
07-18-23 | Twins v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
07-15-23 | Red Sox v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
07-14-23 | Padres v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | 8-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
07-13-23 | Hamilton v. Edmonton Elks OVER 42.5 | Top | 37-29 | Win | 100 | 48 h 1 m | Show |
07-08-23 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
07-07-23 | Cubs v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
07-06-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Saskatchewan OVER 42.5 | Top | 11-12 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 19 m | Show |
07-05-23 | Mets v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
07-04-23 | Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
07-03-23 | Braves v. Guardians UNDER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
07-01-23 | Rays v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
06-30-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Ottawa UNDER 42.5 | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
06-29-23 | Phillies v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
06-27-23 | Brewers v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
06-26-23 | White Sox v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
06-25-23 | Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
06-24-23 | Astros v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
06-24-23 | Saskatchewan v. Calgary UNDER 46 | 29-26 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
06-23-23 | Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
06-22-23 | BC v. Winnipeg OVER 49 | 30-6 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 35 m | Show | |
06-17-23 | Edmonton Elks v. BC OVER 46 | Top | 0-22 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 49 m | Show |
06-16-23 | Reds v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
06-15-23 | Calgary v. Ottawa UNDER 43.5 | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
06-15-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
06-14-23 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
06-13-23 | Panthers v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
06-13-23 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
06-12-23 | Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 209.5 | Top | 89-94 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
06-10-23 | Golden Knights v. Panthers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 112 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
06-10-23 | Ottawa v. Montreal UNDER 44.5 | 12-19 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
06-10-23 | A's v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 211.5 | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
06-07-23 | Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 214.5 | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
06-06-23 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
06-01-23 | Reds v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 2-8 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
05-31-23 | Brewers v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 203.5 | 103-84 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
05-28-23 | Cardinals v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
05-27-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 210.5 | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 60 m | Show | |
05-27-23 | Stars v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
05-27-23 | Cardinals v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
05-26-23 | Cardinals v. Guardians OVER 8 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
05-25-23 | Golden Knights v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
05-25-23 | Mets v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
05-24-23 | Marlins v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
05-23-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 216.5 | Top | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
05-23-23 | White Sox v. Guardians OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
05-22-23 | Marlins v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 214 | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 4 m | Show | |
05-21-23 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 9 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
05-20-23 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
05-19-23 | Twins v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
05-18-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 31 h 3 m | Show |
05-18-23 | Panthers v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 25 m | Show | |
05-18-23 | Guardians v. White Sox OVER 8 | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
05-17-23 | Cubs v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
05-16-23 | Twins v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
05-16-23 | Diamondbacks v. A's OVER 9 | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
05-16-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets OVER 222.5 | 126-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
05-16-23 | Cubs v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
05-15-23 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 8-9 | Win | 105 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
05-14-23 | Rangers v. A's OVER 9 | 11-3 | Win | 105 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
05-13-23 | Cubs v. Twins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
05-12-23 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 221.5 | Top | 101-122 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
05-12-23 | Oilers v. Golden Knights OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
05-11-23 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 213.5 | 95-86 | Win | 100 | 31 h 0 m | Show | |
05-11-23 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 10 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
05-10-23 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 228.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 36 h 38 m | Show | |
05-08-23 | Nationals v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
05-07-23 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 228 | Top | 124-129 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
05-07-23 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
05-07-23 | Hurricanes v. Devils UNDER 5.5 | 4-8 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
05-06-23 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 228 | 97-127 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
05-05-23 | Red Sox v. Phillies OVER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
05-03-23 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 217 | Top | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
05-03-23 | Devils v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
05-03-23 | Guardians v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
05-02-23 | Lakers v. Warriors OVER 227 | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
05-02-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars OVER 5.5 | 5-4 | Win | 109 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
05-02-23 | Reds v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
05-01-23 | Phillies v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
05-01-23 | Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 227.5 | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
05-01-23 | Cubs v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
04-30-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show |