At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Grizzlies will be playing the 2nd of their back-to-back games here at Staples Center.  Last night, Memphis upset the Clippers, 120-114, as a 4-point underdog.  Unfortunately, NBA underdogs have only covered 33% over the last 32 seasons when playing back to back nights against the Clippers and Lakers, if they won outright on the first night.   That doesn't bode well for Memphis tonight.  Nor does it help matters that Los Angeles has started the season 0-2 here at Staples Center, and will be looking to get off the schneid tonight.  Indeed, this is the 9th time since 1990 that an NBA team opened the season with 3 straight home games, and dropped their first two.  Of those eight previous teams, only 1 of them (Golden State, 2004) failed to cover the spread in its 3rd home game.  The Lakers are also 16-11 ATS their last 27 vs Memphis, and they're 11-4 ATS at home off back to back home ATS losses, when playing a foe off an ATS win.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Houston Rockets.  The Ime Udoka Era hasn't started off well for the 0-2 Celtics.  But I love them to break into the Win Column on this Sunday evening.  The Celts lost at home to Atlantic division rival, Toronto, on Friday, 115-83, as a 7-point favorite.  But Boston is an awesome 31-8 ATS its last 39 off an upset loss to a division foe, if Boston was favored by 4+ points in that defeat.  Meanwhile, Houston's 0-11 ATS vs. rested foes that don't own a winning record, provided Houston wasn't favored by more than 2 points.  Take the Celtics minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over the New York Knicks.  The Magic and Knicks are playing back to back games this weekend.  New York took the first meeting in Orlando, on Friday, 121-96, so the Magic will be playing with revenge here, at Madison Square Garden.  We'll grab the double-digits, as road teams playing with revenge from a 22-point (or worse) defeat in their previous game to the same opponent have gone 83-53 ATS since 1990, including 20-9 ATS when getting 12+ points.  Take Orlando.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Phoenix.  The Suns went into Staples Center last night, and upset the Los Angeles Lakers, 115-105.  But off that big win, we'll fade Chris Paul & Co. tonight in Portland.  This is Phoenix's 3rd game in four nights to open the season.  And NBA teams in this season-opening scheduling situation have gone 5-20 ATS in Game 3 off an upset win, if their opponent was off a SU loss.  With the Blazers off an upset loss to Sacramento in their opener, we'll take Portland minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Chicago.  This is a tough spot for Chicago, as it is unrested after defeating New Orleans here last night.  It's also a big revenge game for Detroit, which lost at home, 94-88, to the Bulls to open the season.  We'll take Detroit in this road game, as it's 19-7 ATS its last 26 off a SU home loss, while Chicago is a money-burning 6-19 ATS at home off a SU win, if it's playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take the Pistons.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Toronto.  The Mavericks were blown out on the road by Atlanta, 113-87 to open its season, and will look to bounce back tonight against an unrested Raptors team.  Toronto played last night in Boston, and blew out the Celtics, 115-83.  Dallas has been tremendous over the years off a SU road loss when matched up against a foe off a win, as it's 68-27-4 ATS.  And NBA teams off a loss by 15+ points in their season opener have covered 73% vs. foes off a 15 point (or greater) victory.  Lay the points with Dallas.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over the Utah Jazz.  Both of these teams come into this game off season-opening wins.  The Kings upset Portland, 124-121, while Utah routed Oklahoma City, 107-86.  We'll back Sacramento as a home underdog in its home opener, as rested, winning underdogs have cashed 64% of their home openers the past 42 years, if they were off an upset win in their previous game.  Take the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Denver.  The Nuggets won their season opener at Phoenix, on Wednesday.  And that was a big revenge win for Denver, as the Suns swept the Nuggets out of the Playoffs last season with a 4-0 series win in the quarter-finals.  We'll take the Spurs as a road underdog, as Denver's a poor 37-64-1 ATS in the regular season as a favorite of more than 3 points off a road upset win.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over Chicago.  The Bulls enter tonight's game off a 94-88 victory over the Detroit Pistons.  We'll grab the points with New Orleans, as Chicago is 35-57 ATS when favored by 3 (or more) points at home off a SU win.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets over the Philadelphia 76ers.  The Nets were throttled, 127-104, in their opener by Milwaukee, while Philly blew out New Orleans, 117-97.  But we'll go against the 76ers in their home opener, as they've covered just one of seven home openers vs. an opponent off a SU loss.  And the Nets are a solid 25-7 ATS vs. .500 (or better) opposition when priced from -4 to +6.5 points, including a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. division rivals.  Take the Nets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Washington.  When these two teams last met, the Wizards bounced the Pacers out of the playoffs with a 142-115 blowout in the Play-In round.  I look for Indiana to avenge that playoff ouster tonight with an upset win.  The Pacers lost a tough one in Charlotte on Wednesday, as they were a 1.5-point road favorite, but blew a 23-pont lead, and lost by a single point, 123-122.  But Indiana is a super 76-42 ATS as a road underdog (or PK) off an upset loss.  Meanwhile, the Wizards upset Toronto, 98-83 on Wednesday.  But the Wizards are a wallet-busting 18-45 ATS at home vs. a revenge-minded foe, if they were off an upset win.  And they're 37-64 ATS off an upset win by more than 10 points.  Take the Pacers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Charlotte.  The Cavaliers are a perfect 4-0 as a home underdog in their home openers since 2010, and they won each of those four games outright.  Meanwhile, the Hornets are a horrid 2-11 SU and 3-9-1 ATS in their road openers, including 1-6-1 ATS if their opponent wasn't off a win.  And Charlotte's 7-14-1 ATS its last 21 vs. the Cavaliers.  Take Cleveland.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over Golden State.  The Warriors upended the Los Angeles Lakers, 121-114, on Tuesday night.  But off that upset win, we will fade the Warriors here against the Clippers.  Golden State is an ugly 0-10-1 its last 11 off an upset win, if priced in its current game from -2 to -6 points.  Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 11-0 ATS its last 11 on the road vs. a foe off an upset win.  And LA is also 5-1 ATS in its last six season openers.  Take the Clippers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Milwaukee got its title defense off to a winning start with a blowout of Brooklyn on Tuesday night.  But off that win, we will fade Milwaukee tonight, as NBA defending champs have covered just 36.8% in their first road game of the season following a win at home in their previous game.  Moreover, the Heat are 9-4 ATS their last 13 home openers, and they're 11-4 their last 15 regular season games when installed as a home underdog vs. a foe off a win.  Grab the points with Erik Spoelstra's men tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Last season, we cashed the Milwaukee Bucks (at 13-2 odds) to win the NBA title, and also cashed our preseason pick on Baylor (at 12-1 odds) in College Basketball to win the NCAA championship.  This season, our preseason NBA pick is on the Brooklyn Nets (currently at +260 at BetOnline) to win the title.  And we'll take them in this season-opening game against the team which ousted them from the quarterfinals last season.  But it was the narrowest of victories for Mike Budenholzer's men, as Kevin Durant was just two inches in front of the three-point arc on what turned out to be a game-tying (rather than a game-winning) shot.  However, Brooklyn outscored Milwaukee in that 7-game series by 2.86 ppg, and were (in my eyes) the better team, even in defeat.  But I was more than happy to have the Bucks win that series, and eventually the NBA title.  Now, it's a new season, and we'll take James Harden & Co. to avenge that playoff loss, and get Brooklyn off to a 1-0 start.  Take the Nets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Mike Budenholzer's men come into this Game 6 off wins in each of the three previous games, including an upset win on Saturday night in Phoenix.  Unfortunately, Milwaukee has been consistently awful off three (or more) wins, as it's 98-166-7 ATS, including 1-9 ATS since March 24, 2021.  Even worse, if the Bucks are off an upset win, and playing a rested opponent, then they're 1-20 ATS when priced from +3 to -8 points, including 0-13 ATS their last 13.  That doesn't bode well for Giannis Antetokounmpo & Co. tonight.  And neither does the fact that .667 (or worse) teams, up 3-games-to-2 in a series, are 0-9 ATS as home favorites of more than 2 points off an upset win!  The Suns are a perfect 7-0 ATS their last seven off a home upset loss.  Grab the points with Phoenix tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Milwaukee.  The Suns and Bucks have traded 2 SU/ATS wins -- each winning (and covering) the two games on their own home court.  The scene now moves back to the Valley of the Sun, and that bodes well for Phoenix.  As I mentioned in our analysis of Game 3, Phoenix has gone 35-11 SU and 30-16 ATS this season at home, while covering the point spread by an average of 3.40 ppg!  On the road, though, it's been a different story for Monty Williams' men, as the Suns have a negative point spread differential of -.02, so Phoenix's home/road differential is +3.42. Meanwhile, the Bucks' record at home this year, at Fiserv Forum, is 35-11, and they've covered the spread at home by 1.86 ppg (which very favorably compares to their negative road point spread differential of -2.66 ppg). So, when you put it all together, Milwaukee's road/home point spread differential is -4.52 ppg on the road, while Phoenix's home/road point spread differential is +3.42 -- a relative difference of +7.94.  That's the primary reason we are backing the Suns on Saturday night.  But it also bodes well that the Suns were competitive in defeat on Wednesday.  They led for much of Game 4, and only lost by six points.  This season, NBA teams off SU/ATS playoff losses by six points (or less) are 14-2 ATS.  Take the Suns to bounce back in Game 5.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  We played on the Bucks in Game 3, and were rewarded with a 20-point win.  But off that blowout loss, we'll take Chris Paul & Co. to bounce back on Wednesday.  The Suns are a super 20-7 ATS off a loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if their opponent is off a SU win.  Even better:  over the last 31 NBA Finals, teams off losses in which they failed to cover the spread by more than 14 points have covered 70.3% of the time away from home, including 87% if priced from +2.5 to +8.5 points.  Take the Suns as a road underdog on Wednesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns to go 'under' the total.  We played Game 3 under, and the total opened at 222.5.  It remained between 222.5 and 220.5 throughout the 3 days of betting action until 90 minutes before game time when many books dropped the line to 220.  Game 3's final score was 120-100, so it was an 'under' or a 'push' for 99+ percent of bettors.  The key to Game 3 going under was the Phoenix Suns' offensive output (or lack thereof), as they scored 18 less points than they did in either Game 1 or Game 2, when they scored 118 in each of their home games.  That actually bodes very well for another low-scoring game tonight.  In 31 years of the NBA Finals, teams that come off a loss -- which also didn't go Over the total -- where they scored 15 (or less) points than they did two games back, greatly tend to play another low-scoring game, as their next game also didn't go Over the total 83% of the time.  Even better:  Game 4s of the NBA Finals have historically been very low-scoring games, and especially in competitive series (that is, series that are not being led 3-games-to-none), as those have gone 'under' 18 of 24.  This will be a relatively-low scoring game.  Take the 'under' in Game 4.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Phoenix Suns.  The Suns drew first (and second) blood in this series with back-to-back blowout wins over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Of course, those two games were in the Valley of the Sun, where Phoenix has gone 35-11 SU and 30-16 ATS this season, while covering the point spread by an average of 3.40 ppg!  On the road, it's been a different story for Monty Williams' men, and that's the key factor for our play on the Bucks on Sunday night.  The Suns have only covered the spread by 0.36 ppg on the road this season, which is 3.04 ppg less than they do at home.  Meanwhile, the Bucks' record at home this year, at Fiserv Forum, is 33-11, and they've covered the spread at home by 1.56 ppg (which very favorably compares to their negative road point spread differential of -2.66 ppg).  So, when you put it all together, Milwaukee's home/road point spread differential is +4.22 ppg at home, while Phoenix's road/home point spread differential is -3.04 -- a relative difference of +7.26.  So, while many will overreact to the Suns' dominance on their home court, we will not.  Instead, we'll look for a reversal here, in Milwaukee.  And, for technical support, consider that home favorites (or PK) have covered the point spread 90% over the last 31 years in Game 3 of a Playoff series after losing Game 2, if their relative home/road point spread differential was at least 6 points better than their opponent's relative road/home point spread differential.  Additionally, Milwaukee is 37-12 ATS at home off back to back losses when not favored by more than 5 points.  Lay the points with Mike Budenholzer's Bucks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns 'under' the total.  The Suns and Bucks have played all four meetings this year 'over' the total, and they've gone 'over' in all six meetings played this year, and last.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game on Sunday night, especially after the Suns scored 118 in each of the first two games of this Finals.  But consider that NBA games involving teams (like Phoenix) off back to back playoff games, where they scored more than 116 in each game, have gone 'under' the total 63.2% since 1992.  Take Game 3 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks + the points over Phoenix.  We played on the Suns in Game 1 of this series, and were rewarded with a relatively easy 13-point win, 118-105.  Tonight, we'll switch gears and take the road underdog, as we look for Milwaukee to level the series at 1 game apiece.  Indeed, Milwaukee had the distinction in this year's Playoffs to be one of only two teams (along with the Clippers) that had a win percentage of .636 both this season, and last season.  One of the things I love to do in the NBA Finals is to take these strong teams off a SU/ATS loss, provided they're not laying more than 4 points.  Since 1991, they've covered 71.9% of the time.  That bodes well for Mike Budenholzer's men tonight.  As does the fact that Phoenix is a woeful 41-71-3 ATS as a home favorite of 2+ points off a double-digit home win, when matched up against a rested opponent.  Take the Bucks as a road underdog in Game 2.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Milwaukee.  Over the last 22 seasons, the NBA's Western conference has been dominant against the Eastern conference, as its teams have won 56.46% of the games.  And this season was no different, as the West went 242-208 (53.77%) vs. the East.  This intriguing NBA Finals match-up will pit the #2-seeded Suns (who last made the Finals in 1993) against the #3-seeded Bucks (who last made the Finals in 1974, when they were a Western conference team).  Prior to the season, I predicted the Bucks (at 13-2 odds) would win the NBA title.  Unfortunately, their best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo, sustained an injury in Game 4 vs. Atlanta, so he won't be at 100%, even if he suits up for all the games.  But regardless of Antetokounmpo's health, this Game 1 is a horrible situation for the Bucks.  Indeed, Eastern conference teams are 0-12 straight-up, and 1-11 ATS since 2005 when playing away from home in Game 1 of the NBA Finals against a Western conference foe with a better record.  The closest that any of these 12 Eastern conference teams has come in Game 1 was in 2015, when Cleveland lost to Golden State by eight points, as a 6-point underdog.  And the only time an Eastern conference team has covered away from home in Game 1 since 2005 was in 2018, when the Cavs lost by 10, as a 13-point underdog to the Warriors.  Finally, each of these two finalists has done much better vs. the point spread at home, than on the road.  The Suns have covered by 3.25 ppg at home (compared to 0.36 ppg on the road), while the Bucks have covered by 1.56 ppg at Milwaukee (compared to -2.47 ppg away from home).  This is key, as NBA finalists, since 1991, have gone 9-0 SU/ATS at home in Game 1 when their home point spread differential was 1.75 ppg greater than their opponent's road point spread differential.  Take the Phoenix Suns minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks over the Atlanta Hawks.  Tuesday's 110-88 loss by Milwaukee was doubly-painful, as their best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo, went down in a heap in the 3rd quarter.  So, this will be the sternest test yet for Mike Budenholzer's Bucks, as they'll have to play tonight's critical Game 5 without the services of their superstar.  But I believe they're up to the task.  The good news for Budenholzer is that they've had ample experience over the last few seasons to play games without their MVP.  This year, Milwaukee went 6-5 without him in the lineup.  Budenholzer -- a Gregg Popovich protege -- will emphasize ball movement, and player movement, and rely on his team's "corporate knowledge," system, and talent to win out.  Atlanta is a horrible 48-88-2 ATS vs. rested opponents off a 20-point (or worse) defeat, including 0-13-1 ATS on the road when priced from -2.5 to +9 points vs. .540 (or better) foes.  And NBA Playoff teams have cashed 67.8% over the last 31 seasons if they lost their previous game on the road by more than 21 points, and don't have an inferior record than their opponent.  Take Milwaukee tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns over the Los Angeles Clippers.  We played on the Clippers in Game 4, as they were a big road underdog, and down 2 games in the series.  Los Angeles easily won by 14, as a 6.5-point underdog (covering the spread in Game 5 by 20.5 points).  They're still down now (though only by one game), but the point spread is considerably shorter.  That's enough reason for me to take the road team in this close-out Game 6.  Indeed, road teams up 3-games-to-2 have historically done very well in Game 6, as they're 66-40 ATS, including 32-13 ATS off an ATS loss in Game 5.  Moreover, .655 (or better) teams have gone 33-15 ATS off a playoff loss in which they failed to cover the spread by 20+ points, if they were not favored by more than 1 point in the current game.  Finally, the Suns are 32-14 ATS on the road when rested, off a loss, and not getting more than three points.  And they're 57-31-1 ATS off a point spread loss by more than 20 points, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in the playoffs.  Take the Suns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers over the Phoenix Suns.  Phoenix leads this series three-games-to-one, even though it has been outscored 403-400 in the four games.  Certainly, with just a little more good fortune, the Clippers could be tied, or even leading this series.  We'll grab the points with Los Angeles, as teams down 3-games-to-1 that have actually outscored their opponent over the three previous games combined, have gone 14-7 ATS in the NBA playoffs since 1991.  Even better:  .600 (or better) underdogs of more than 5 points, off a loss, and down exactly two games in a playoff series, have gone 7-0 ATS away from home since 2015, and 22-7 ATS since 1993.  The Clippers are 30-12 ATS away from home off a straight-up loss.  Take LA + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Atlanta.  The #5-seeded Hawks are trying to win their 3rd straight NBA Playoff series without home court advantage -- something which rarely happens in the chalk-heavy NBA.  Atlanta won Game 1 outright, 116-113, as an 8-point road favorite.  But my money is against the Hawks duplicating that feat tonight.  Indeed, NBA teams, seeded #5 or worse, off back to back playoff wins, are a poor 2-34 SU and 7-29 ATS away from home as an underdog of more than 7 points, including 0-8 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back road games.  That doesn't bode well for Atlanta tonight.  Nor does the fact that Milwaukee is a reliable 28-3 SU and 23-8 ATS as a home favorite of 4 (or more) points off a straight-up loss, including 9-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins.  The Bucks know that they need to win tonight's game, lest they be forced to win at least 2 of 3 games on Atlanta's home court (a venue where Atlanta is 22-4 SU its last 26).  Take Milwaukee minus the points in this critical Game 2.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Atlanta.  Before the start of the season, I published my NBA futures selection, and predicted the Milwaukee Bucks (at 13-2 odds) would win the NBA title.  But, for much of the season, it did not look like it would come to fruition, as the Bucks, frankly, underwhelmed.  After finishing with the #1 margin of victory in each of 2019 (8.87), and 2020 (10.08), the Bucks took a major step back this season, and only outscored their opponents by 5.89 points per game.  Still, that was good enough for #1 in the Eastern Conference, and #3, overall.  Indeed, only the Utah Jazz (9.25) and Los Angeles Clippers (6.18) ranked ahead of the Bucks at the end of the regular season.  Atlanta, meanwhile, was a distant ninth (2.32).  It's true that the Bucks were unceremoniously bounced out of the playoffs the past two seasons, notwithstanding their #1 ranking in victory margin.  The Toronto Raptors eliminated the Bucks in 2019, while Miami sent the Bucks packing last season.  But a primary reason for Milwaukee's failures was its subpar play away from home.  However, when playing in front of its home faithful, Milwaukee has actually maintained its strong regular season numbers in the playoffs.  Including this season (and dating back to 2018), Milwaukee is 14-2 straight-up, and 11-5 ATS at home, and has covered the spread by an average of 5.47 ppg.  This season, Milwaukee took 2 of the 3 meetings vs. Atlanta, including the only meeting here, in Milwaukee (129-115, on Jan. 24).  The Hawks did defeat the Bucks, as a 5.5-point home underdog, in the most recent meeting (on April 25).  But that's not necessarily a good thing as, in the NBA semi-finals or finals, revenge-minded teams have gone 13-0 ATS at home in the first game of a Playoff series, if they were not getting 4+ points.  Moreover, Atlanta is a wallet-busting 46-76-1 ATS on the road if it upset its opponent in the previous meeting.  Finally, the Hawks are a horrid 7-32 SU and 8-31 ATS on the road when priced from +4.5 to +9.5 points.  Take the Bucks minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers 'under' the total.  We played on the 76ers and the 'under' in Game 6, and got the $$$ with each.  For Game 7, we'll come right back with the 'under,' as each of the last three games in this series has been low-scoring.  Game 4 went 'under' by 23.5 points; Game 5 by 9 points; and Game 6 by 20.5 points!  One of the reasons, of course, is that after playing the same team for several games, the defenses understand fully the other team's offensive sets, and don't allow the shooters to get the best looks.  So, it's no surprise that, for example, the 76ers have shot 43.4% over the last three games (compared to 55.2% over the first three games).  Likewise, Atlanta's shooting percentage has dropped from 48.2% to 41.0%.  This season, Philly ranked #2 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and has also allowed just 108.2 ppg.  For the year, Atlanta's gone 'under' 65.5% of the time vs. the better defensive teams that allow less than 109.3 ppg.  This will be another low-scoring game.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets to go 'under' the total.  These two teams met on Thursday night for Game 6 in Milwaukee. Milwaukee was favored by 4.5 points, and the total was 220.  The Brooklyn Nets entered that game with a 3-2 series lead, so it was an elimination game for the Bucks.  But Milwaukee sprinted out to an 18-5 lead in the first quarter, and finished the quarter with a 26-19 lead. Brooklyn could never mount a comeback, and when the final gun sounded, the Bucks earned a 104-89 victory. The Bucks covered the 4.5-point number, and it went under the total by 27 points.  The over/under line for this Game 7 is lower than it was for Game 6, but it's not low enough.  And we'll look for another 'under' tonight.  Indeed, seven of the nine meetings between these clubs have gone 'under' the number this season.  Even better:  Brooklyn has gone 17-7 'under' vs. winning teams, and 12-4 'under' in competitively-priced games with a point spread of 3 or less.  Likewise, Milwaukee has gone 'under' 36-22-1 vs. winning teams, and 27-18 in games priced from +3 to -3.  Take the Bucks and Nets to go 'under' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz over the Los Angeles Clippers.  This series is emblematic of the injury woes that have been front-and-center for the NBA this Playoffs season.  Los Angeles will be without Kawhi Leonard for the remainder of this series, while Utah has been playing without Mike Conley, but with a hobbled Donovan Mitchell (both Conley and Mitchell are officially listed as 'questionable' for this game).  We'll take Utah to bounce back off its Game 5 loss, as it is 34-14 ATS when playing with revenge, if it was off a SU/ATS home loss.  And road favorites have cashed 73% off back to back playoff losses since 2004.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Atlanta.  Philadelphia has had a great season, as it won 55 regular season games.  But if it doesn't win its next two games, it will be on the golf course next week.  We'll lay the small number on the road tonight, as NBA teams with a win percentage greater than .600, off back to back upset losses, have cashed 64.4% since 1991 when playing away from home, and not laying more than 4 points.  Take Philly.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers and Atlanta Hawks to go 'under' the total.  The 76ers now face elimination after back to back upset losses to the Hawks.  But teams tend to go 'under' after back to back upset playoff defeats, as they've gone 'under' in 52 of 82 games.  And the Sixers have gone 'under' in 27 of 41 road games when installed as a favorite.  Take the 'under.'

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Brooklyn.  The Bucks fell apart on Tuesday and blew a 17-point lead to put them in a precarious spot.  Milwaukee must win its next two games, or it will once again be labeled a post-season paper tiger.  One thing Milwaukee can certainly hang its hat on is that it is an awesome 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS at home over the last four post-seasons.  Even better, over the last 31 years, home favorites of more than 4 points, that failed to cover their previous game by 7+ points, have cashed 69% in Playoff elimination games if they trailed in the series by exactly 1 game.  Milwaukee has won all four home games this season vs. Brooklyn (3-1 ATS), and is 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS its last 13 home games in this series.  And it's 21-3 SU and 17-7 ATS as a home favorite of more than 3 points off an upset loss.  Take the Bucks minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  Utah's been terrific at home this season, as it's 35-6 SU, and has covered the point spread by an average of 4.07 ppg (compared to a negative mark (-1.10 ppg) on the road).  Meanwhile, the Clippers have also performed better this season at its home at Staples Center than it has done on the road (a .136 differential).  So, it's not exactly a surprise that the Jazz won both home games, while they lost both road games.  The good news for Utah is that it's back home in Salt Lake City tonight.  The Jazz are 59-36-2 ATS as a home favorite in the Playoffs, including 13-7-1 ATS off back to back losses.  Meanwhile, the Clippers are an awful 67-115-4 ATS vs. .589 (or better) revenge-minded opponents, including 6-25-1 ATS if their foe lost the season's two previous meetings!  Finally, when playing at home, and not laying 10+ points, the Jazz are 21-2 SU their last 23, and 20-3 ATS, including 11-0 SU/ATS when favored by less than 7 points.  Take Utah minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over Milwaukee.  The Bucks leveled this series at 2 games apiece with a 107-96 upset win in Game 4.  Even worse for Brooklyn:  the Nets are down two stars, with G Kyrie Irving and G James Harden sidelined.  But it would be a mistake to think they're devoid of talent -- especially with Kevin Durant on the court.  And with the Nets being installed as a sizable home underdog for this pivotal Game 5, we'll grab the points with the wounded underdog.  Indeed, .600 (or better) NBA underdogs of +2.5 (or more) points have cashed 75% since 1991 in the Playoffs if they were off a double-digit upset loss, and matched up against an opponent with a win percentage less than .700.  Moreover, Milwaukee is a wallet-busting 12-22 ATS off a double-digit home upset win, while Brooklyn is a solid 42-28 ATS when playing with revenge from a road defeat, and 7-3 this season as a home underdog.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Los Angeles.  We played on the Clippers in Game 3, and got the $$$$ with an easy 132-106 blowout win.  But off that 26-point loss, we'll take the Jazz to bounce back at Staples Center tonight.  For technical support, consider that .714 (or better) teams have gone 32-10 ATS as underdogs off a loss by more than 21 points!  Even better:  the Clippers are an awful 67-115 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes with a .589 (or better) win percentage, including 11-27 ATS in the playoffs.  Take Utah + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over Philadelphia.  After upsetting the #1-seeded 76ers in Game 1, 128-124, the Hawks suffered back-to-back blowout losses (118-102, 127-111).  But off those two 16-point defeats, we'll grab the points with Atlanta in this critical Game 4.  Indeed, NBA teams have cashed 62% at home in the Playoffs after back to back losses by more than 15 points.  Moreover, Philadelphia is an awful 6-23-1 ATS on the road, when favored by 10 points or less, if the 76ers were off back to back wins, and owned a win percentage of .625 (or better).  And Atlanta is 11-1 ATS as a home dog of +3 (or more) points off back to back losses by more than 15 points.  Take the Hawks + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Phoenix.  The Nuggets are down 3-games-to-none, but I wouldn't count them out of Game 4 -- especially because they're playing at home, and have been installed as an underdog.  Indeed, home underdogs of less than 8 points, that trail in a 7-game series, three-games-to-none, have actually done quite well against the spread, with a 28-20-3 ATS record since 1991, including 8-1-1 ATS if our home underdog's win percentage was .625 (or better).  Moreover, Denver has been terrific at home off a straight-up home loss, when it's owned a winning record, as it's 6-0-1 ATS its last seven (and 23-12-2 ATS its last 37).  Meanwhile, Phoenix has covered just one of its last seven as road favorites vs. winning teams.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets 'under' the total.  All three games of this series have sailed UNDER the total, including Game 3, which generated just 169 points (against an over/under line of 235).  And that game went 'under' by a whopping 66 points.  So, the oddsmakers have adjusted this Game 4 line but, by my math, it's not been adjusted enough.  We'll take the 'under' this afternoon and note, for technical support, that NBA playoff games with O/U lines of 200 (or more) have gone 'under' the total 71% over the last 31 years if the previous game totaled 172 (or less) points.  Even better:  in competitively-priced games with point spreads of less than 4, Milwaukee has gone 'under' in 7 straight (and 42 of 72), while Brooklyn has also gone 'under' seven straight, and in 78 of 127.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Utah Jazz.  After dropping the first two games of this series, the Clippers cannot afford to go down three-games-to-none.  Los Angeles was in a similar spot in its last series -- vs. Dallas -- and rebounded from a 2-0 deficit to win that series in seven games.  While Utah is no doubt a much more difficult foe than the Mavericks, the Clippers will be able to draw inspiration from that Mavericks series, and I believe that will serve them well in this Game 3.  One fact stands out about the Jazz:  they are dominating at home this season, as they're 35-6 SU, 27-14 ATS, and covering the point spread by an average of 4.07 ppg.  But they're actually failing to cover the spread by 0.35 ppg on the road!  That doesn't bode well for Utah tonight.  Nor does the fact that .610 (or better) NBA favorites of -3+ points, down 2-games-to-none in a playoff series, have covered 60% over the past 31 seasons.  Finally, since Kawhi Leonard joined the Clippers, they're a solid 31-18 ATS as a favorite off a SU/ATS loss, including 7-1 ATS vs. .625 (or better) opponents.  Take Los Angeles to blow out Utah tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Phoenix Suns.  The Suns swept the first two games of this series to take a 2-0 lead.  But those two games were in Phoenix, where the Suns have gone 31-10 SU, 27-14 ATS, and have covered the spread by an average of 4.02 ppg.  On the road, Phoenix has been less successful, as it's failed to cover the spread by an average of 0.5 ppg.  Denver, meanwhile, covers the spread at home by an average of 1.34 ppg.  We'll take the Nuggets in this Game 3, as they've been terrific at home off back to back losses by more than 10 points, and especially when priced from +1.5 to -4.5 points, as they're 19-3 ATS their last 22.  Even better:  Denver lost the first two games 122-105 and 123-98.  But NBA teams off back to back Playoff losses that gave up more than 120 points in each game, have cashed 64% since 1990.  This is a virtual 'must-win' game for Mike Malone's men.  Lay the small number.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over Utah.  The Jazz drew first blood in this series with a three-point win in Game 1.  But off that loss, we'll step in and take the points with the underdog Clippers.  It's true that the Jazz rolled to the best record in the league this year, and are 34-6 at home.  But consider that #1 seeds are a poor 58-91 ATS as a favorite in the Playoffs when they lead in a series against a .600 (or better) opponent.  Even better:  the Clippers are 23-10 ATS on the road when playing with revenge, including 11-1 ATS if the game was competitively-priced with a point spread of 4 points or less.  And Los Angeles is an awesome 39-14 ATS off exactly one loss.  Take L.A. + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Brooklyn.  The Bucks were embarrassed in Game 2, as they were blown out, 125-86, by Brooklyn.  But that 39-point defeat sets up our play tonight, as .250 (or better) teams have gone 35-5 SU and 28-11-1 ATS at home off a blowout loss by 39+ points, if they were favored by more than 2 points in their current game (and a perfect 6-0 ATS if their win percentage was greater than .600).  Moreover, Milwaukee is 44-17-1 ATS at home off back-to-back losses.  Take Milwaukee minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over the Phoenix Suns.  The Nuggets dropped Game 1, 122-105, as a 6-point underdog.  But Mike Malone's men have been exceptional in the Playoffs, when trailing in a series, as they're 10-5 SU and 12-2-1 ATS their last 15, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they failed to cover the spread in their previous game.  That bodes well for Denver tonight.  As does the fact that .700 (or better) teams are a poor 35% ATS at home in the Playoffs since 1991 when not favored by 8+ points, if they won their previous game in the series by more than 11 points.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  Kawhi Leonard & Co. were extended to seven games by the Dallas Mavericks, while Utah had a much easier time of it vs. the Memphis Grizzlies.  Unfortunately for the Clippers, teams off home SU/ATS wins in a Game 7 have covered just 35% since 1991 when they've played on the road in Game 1 of the following series, provided their opponent won its previous series in less than 7 games.  That doesn't bode well for Los Angeles tonight.  Nor does the fact that the Jazz have won the last five meetings here in Salt Lake City (4-1 ATS), and are 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings, overall.  The Jazz were the #1 home point spread team in the league this season, as they covered the spread at home by 4.56 ppg.  The Clippers, meanwhile, had a road point spread differential of just 0.11 this season.  Utah's an awesome 33-4 SU and 25-12 ATS at home its last 37, while the Clippers are 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS on the road in the playoffs after winning their two previous games.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Atlanta.  The Hawks drew first blood on Sunday, with a 128-124 upset win over the Sixers.  But off that defeat, we'll play on the 76ers in Game 2 tonight.  Indeed, that 128 points was the most points the Sixers have given up in a loss, with Joel Embiid in the lineup, this season.  The good news, however, is that NBA teams that give up 125+ points in an upset playoff defeat are a perfect 8-0 ATS the last four playoff seasons, and 67% ATS the past 31 years.  Take Philadelphia to bounce back strong on Tuesday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Los Angeles Clippers/Dallas Mavericks game.  The last three games in this series have gone 'under' the total, and have done so by wide margins (32.5, 12.5 and 16 points).  We played on the 'under' in Game 6, and that's the way we will look again in this Game 7.  Indeed, eight of the last 10 meetings between these clubs have gone UNDER.  And the Mavericks are now 23-6 UNDER their last 29 games when they've been installed as the underdog.  Finally, NBA games have gone UNDER 72.5% if the season's previous three meetings went under, in the aggregate, by 59+ points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Our preseason pick to win this year's NBA championship was Milwaukee (at 13-2 odds), but it will be an uphill climb for the Bucks to do it, as they're seeded #3 in the Eastern conference.  Tonight, Milwaukee will have to go into Brooklyn to face a very tough Nets team which boasts three offensive superstars in Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and James Harden.  It's true that Milwaukee was impressive in its 4-game sweep over the Miami Heat.  But NBA teams off 4-0 Sweeps have covered just 36% over the last 31 years in Game 1 of their next series if they weren't laying 7+ points, and their opponent was NOT off a series sweep.  Even worse for Milwaukee:  Brooklyn is playing tonight's game with revenge from back-to-back losses to the Bucks last month.  And revenge-minded teams have gone 23-8 ATS (in the quarterfinal round, forward) at home in Game 1 of a series.  Finally, Milwaukee's been horrific away from home off 4+ wins, when facing a revenge-minded, rested opponent, as it's covered just 25.8% ATS since 1990, including 0-9 ATS since March 31, 2019.  Take Brooklyn minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the under in the Dallas/Los Angeles game.  The Clippers were upset by the Mavericks, 105-100, as a 7.5-point home favorite on Wednesday, which sets up this 'do-or-die' game for Tyronn Lue's men tonight.  Los Angeles has now gone 'under' in 10 of its last 13 games off a straight-up loss, while Dallas is 17-11 'under' vs. opponents off a loss.  Even better:  these two teams come into tonight's game off two very low-scoring contests (105-100, 106-81) that went under the total by 32.5 and 12.5 points, respectively.  And that sets up tonight's play, as competitively-priced playoff games, with point spreads of 3 (or less) points, have gone 'under' 60.9% since 1991, if the two teams also went under in their two previous games.  We'll look for another low-scoring game tonight in Game 6.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Phoenix/Los Angeles game.  These two teams have played four of their five games in this 1st round series UNDER the total.  And the last three have gone 'under' by wide margins (9.5, 17.5 and 7.0 points).  That bodes well for another low-scoring game on Thursday, as NBA playoff games have gone 'under' 67% since 1991 after the three previous games went 'under' by at least 5.0 ppg.  Take Game 6 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over the Denver Nuggets.  The Blazers lost Game 5 at Denver, in double-overtime, to fall behind in this series, three-games-to-two.  But we'll look for the Blazers to level this series at three games apiece tonight, as teams favored by more than 4 points, and facing elimination in a first round series, have cashed 68% since 2001, including 88% vs. foes with a win percentage greater than .620.  Additionally, Denver is 39-68 ATS on the road off a SU/ATS win.  Take Portland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  The road team has gone 4-0 SU/ATS in this playoff series (and is 8-1 the last nine meetings), and we'll back the road team, Dallas, tonight.  The Mavericks are a solid 118-74 off a loss vs. an opponent off a win.  And underdogs have cashed 67.6% since 1991 off a 22-point (or worse) playoff defeat, if they don't trail in the series.  Take Dallas.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz/Memphis Grizzlies game to go under the total.  The Grizzlies have lost their last three games to face elimination tonight.  We'll look for a relatively-low scoring game, as 1st Round elimination games have gone 'under' the total 57% since 1991 if the team facing elimination was not getting more than 10 points.  And Utah has gone 'under' 62-44 at home in the playoffs.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks.  The Knicks swept the Hawks, 3-games-to-none, in the regular season, but have dropped the last two games (by 11 and 17 points) to fall behind in this series, 3-games-to-1.  So, if the Knicks can't win tonight, they'll be ousted from the playoffs.  We'll lay the points, as favorites off back to back double-digit losses, have gone 63% ATS at home in the playoffs since 1991.  Take New York.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Memphis/Utah game.  The Grizzlies find themselves in a virtual 'must-win' situation tonight, as they're down 2-games-to-1 after dropping Games 2 + 3 by scores of 141-129 and 121-111.  Clearly, the Grizzlies will need to shore up things on the defensive end if they hope to get back into this series with an upset win tonight.  I look for a much better defensive effort by the home team, and a lower-scoring game tonight, on Monday.  Indeed, NBA playoff games have gone under the total 71% of the time since 1990 if a team was off back to back losses, in which it gave up more than 120 points.  And the Grizzlies have also gone 'under' 33-13-1 their last 47 after giving up 120+ points in their previous game.  Take the 'under' tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  Phoenix finds itself in a 2-1 series hole after dropping Games 2 + 3 to the Lakers by scores of 109-102 and 109-95.  The good news for Phoenix is that NBA teams down 2-games-to-1 have gone 16-4 ATS if they lost Game 3 by 14+ points, including 8-0 ATS if their win percentage was not worse than their opponent's.  The Suns are 6-2 ATS their last eight off back to back point spread defeats.  And NBA road underdogs are 73-54 ATS in the playoffs off two ATS losses if they owned a better W/L percentage than their opponent.  Take the Suns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the game between Memphis and Utah.  The Jazz exploded for 141 points on Wednesday, as they won SU/ATS as a 10-point home favorite, 141-129.  But off that high-scoring game, we'll look for a much lower-scoring game on Saturday.  Indeed, NBA teams off 138+ point games have gone 'under' 90-67 since 1991 when the O/U line was 224+ points.  Moreover, the Grizzlies have gone 'under' in 34 of their last 48 home games, and 32-14-2 'under' off a loss by more than 8 points.  Meanwhile, the Jazz are 33-16-1 'under' in their road playoff games off a SU win.  Take the Grizzlies/Jazz Game 3 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Denver.  The Nuggets won here in Game 3, but are a miserable 43-69 ATS on the road off a point spread win, including 1-10 ATS off back to back SU/ATS wins vs. an opponent off back to back SU/ATS losses.  That doesn't bode well for Denver this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that #3-seeded teams are a poor 32-56 ATS off an upset playoff win, if they don't trail in the series.  Take Portland minus the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Portland/Denver game.  The Nuggets have won the past two games by scores of 128-109 and 120-115.  But off those two high-scoring wins, we'll look for a lower-scoring affair this afternoon, as teams have gone 'under' the total 65.0% since 1991 if they scored more than 116 in back to back playoff games.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Miami is just one loss away from its summer vacation, so this is a 'must win' game for Erik Spoelstra's men.  I believe it will rise to the occasion, as Miami is 53-25 ATS off back to back losses, when matched up against an opponent off a straight up win.  Additionally, in the first 3 rounds of the NBA playoffs, home underdogs of less than 6 points have cashed 64.9% since 1991 off a SU/ATS home playoff loss.  Take Miami.

At 9:35 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Dallas Mavericks.  We played on Los Angeles in Game 2, and were (obviously) disappointed with the result, as the Mavericks upset L.A. for the 2nd straight game, 127-121, as a 7-point underdog.  But that upset win has triggered a powerful 144-67 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off upsets that are not favored by 2+ points in their current game.  Even worse for the Mavericks:  they're 2-13 ATS their last 15, and 33-66-1 ATS their last 100, off back to back underdog ATS wins when they're not getting 6+ points in their current game.  And the Clippers are 22-8 ATS on the road off a loss.  Finally, NBA favorites off back-to-back SU/ATS losses, and down exactly two games in a Playoff series (i.e., 0-2 or 1-3), are 60-39-3 ATS since 1991.  Lay the points with the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Denver Nuggets/Portland Trail Blazers game.  These two teams come into tonight's game off back to back high-scoring affairs.  Portland won Game 1, 123-109, while Denver took Game 2, 128-109.  We'll look for a lower-scoring game tonight, as NBA playoff games have gone 'under' the total 60% of the time since 1991 after back to back games that totaled 230+ points.  Additionally, the 'under' falls into several of my favorite Totals systems that are 92-58, 177-131, and 136-101 since 1991.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks made a statement in Games 1 + 2, as they were able to win a nail-biter (109-107) as well as a blowout (132-98).  Certainly, the Bucks are out to avenge last year's playoff ouster at the hands of the Heat.  But before we dismiss the Heat entirely, we must note that the first two games were at Fiserv Forum, where the Bucks have gone 28-10 this season.  It's been a completely different story outside of Wisconsin, as Milwaukee is a pedestrian 20-16 on the road this year (and a wallet-breaking 14-22 ATS).  We'll take Miami to bounce back in Game 3, as the Heat are an awesome 53-24-3 ATS off back to back losses, when playing an opponent off a SU win.  Even better:  NBA underdogs of less than 6 points, off defeats by more than 32 points, have cashed 88% in the Playoffs since 1991.  Take Miami.  Good luck, a always...Al McMordie. 

At 10:05 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies struck first in this series with a 112-109 upset win at Salt Lake City, on Sunday night.  And that followed an upset post-season win at Golden State in the play-in round.  But we'll take Utah to rebound in Game 2 of this series.  Indeed, the Jazz are at their best as a favorite when coming off a home loss, and playing with revenge, as they're 33-14 ATS.  Even better:  #8-seeded underdogs are a nasty 3-18-1 ATS off a playoff win (and back to back wins, overall).  And underdogs off back to back upset post-season wins are a wallet-breaking 17-34-2 ATS.  Take the Jazz minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Dallas Mavericks.  The Clippers lost Game 1 here, at home, on Saturday, 113-103, as a 6-point favorite.  But we'll take Kawhi Leonard & Co. to bounce back on Tuesday in Game #2.  Indeed, since 2020, the Clippers have been one of the best teams in the league off a loss, as they're 53-17 SU and 46-24 ATS, including 12-1 ATS off a double-digit loss when not laying more than 7 points.  Even better:  Dallas is a dreadful 0-11 ATS in the Playoffs following a SU/ATS win as an underdog (or PK) when getting more than five points from a team which owns a better W/L percentage.  Finally, the Clippers fall into 158-90, 85-35, 83-35, 94-39 and 75-21 ATS Playoff systems of mine.  Lay the points with the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Portland Trail Blazers.  The Trail Blazers have not had much playoff success over the years, as they're 68-103 ATS their last 171 including 32-53 ATS on the road.  But Portland went into Denver in Game 1 of this series, and pulled the upset, 123-109, as a 1-point dog.  We'll fade the Blazers in Game 2, as .700 (or worse) road teams up 1-0 in a playoff series are 0-9-2 ATS if matched up against a division rival, and not getting 7+ points.  Additionally, the Nuggets are 5-0-1 ATS their last six, and 36-11-1 ATS their last 48 at home, off a home loss by more than 10 points, provided the Nuggets weren't getting more than 2 points in their current game.  Take the Nuggets to level this series at 1-game apiece.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Denver.  If the Trail Blazers win this game, they will avoid the dreaded play-in round, and be seeded #6 in the Western conference.  Denver also would like to win, but their benefit of securing the #3 seed rather than the #4 seed isn't as great as Portland's.  It's true that Denver won its 3rd straight game (and 2nd straight by double-digits) when it defeated Detroit, 114-103, on Friday.  But the Nuggets are a poor 3-14 ATS off back to back double-digit wins.  Meanwhile, Portland falls into a 28-6 ATS division revenge angle of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded home favorites of -6 (or more) points in the regular season.   Lay the points with the Trail Blazers.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Thunder have lost 23 of their last 24 games, and are clearly pointing ahead toward the draft lottery.  They've lost their last five games by 21, 39, 28, 16 and 16 points.  Los Angeles still has an incentive to win this game for playoff positioning, and will also look to remove the stench from a 122-115 loss at Houston on Friday.  The Clippers are 22-7 ATS their last 29 on the road off a loss.  Take the Clippers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Cleveland.  The Cavs have not been competitive down the stretch, as they've lost 12 of 13 games, including a 15-point defeat at the hands of Washington, on Friday.  Interestingly, the Nets have dropped both meetings this season to the woeful Cavaliers.  And they lost each by 12 points!  With that as a backdrop, we'll take Brooklyn to close out their season with a big win this evening.  Brooklyn falls into a 166-98 ATS revenge angle of mine, while Cleveland is a nasty 13-31 ATS off a point spread defeat this season, and 27-48 ATS off a loss by 15+ points.  Take the Nets.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Houston.  The Rockets are 17-54 this season after upsetting the Clippers to snap a 7-game slide.  But faithful followers know I love playing against bad teams off wins.  And this is a great spot to do so, given it's Houston's final road game of the season.  The Rockets fall into a 13-57 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams in late season games, while Atlanta applies to a 120-55 ATS 'momentum' system, based on its 116-93 victory over Orlando on Thursday.  Lay the points with the Hawks.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies won their fifth straight game on Friday, with a 1-point triumph over Sacramento.  They'll now travel to San Francisco to play a critical game (for both teams) vs. Golden State.  Because of the importance of this afternoon's game, Warriors' coach Steve Kerr rested his stars on Friday because this Sunday game would be for "all the marbles" anyway.  But the Warriors won that Friday game, 125-122.  That was the Warriors' fifth straight win and cover, and I look for them to stretch their streak to six straight this afternoon.  The Warriors fall into an 84-45 "Last Home Game" system of mine, while Memphis applies to a negative 48-76 ATS "Last Road Game" system which goes against certain teams in their final road game that are headed to the playoffs.  And Memphis is also a wallet-breaking 24-42 ATS off 5+ wins.  Take the Warriors minus the points.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Charlotte.  This season finale is important to each of these two teams because of playoff positioning.  But we'll take the homestanding Wizards, who play this game with revenge from a double-digit home loss to the Hornets on March 30.  The Wizards are 51-33 ATS when playing with revenge, including 17-9 ATS this season.  Moreover, Washington won its previous game, 120-105, on Friday vs. Cleveland.  And the Wizards are 11-1 ATS this season off a double-digit win.  Lay the points.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over Boston.  Last night, the Knicks defeated Charlotte, 118-109, in overtime, and they'll now take on the Boston Celtics, who are locked into the #7 seed after winning yesterday vs. the Timberwolves.  That win by the Celtics snapped their four-game losing streak, which was important for Brad Stevens' team.  But off that win, I expect a less intense effort by the Celtics this afternoon, given there's really nothing to play for.  New York lost by two points in the previous meeting vs. Boston, but is 15-6 ATS when playing with revenge this season.  And the Knicks also fall into 74-37 and 64-34 ATS "Last Home Game" systems of mine.  Take New York minus the points.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Chicago.  The Bulls were officially eliminated from the Playoffs last night when the Washington Wizards bested the Cleveland Cavaliers, 120-105.  Chicago will now travel to play the Nets, who are still locked in a battle with Milwaukee for playoff seeding.  These two teams met earlier this week in the Windy City, and the Nets won that game, 115-107.  That was, ironically, the same score of the teams' first meeting this season -- but that game was won by Chicago.  We'll take the homestanding Nets, as they fall into a 27-3, 90% ATS late season system of mine, which is based on their current win streak.  Even better:  coach Steve Nash has stated that his All-Star triumvirate of Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving will all play in this game.  And it will be the first time this troika has played together vs. the Bulls, and just the 8th time all season they all suited up for a game.  Take Brooklyn to blow out Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat over the Philadelphia 76ers.  These two teams played back-to-back games in January, and the Sixers won both meetings.  But both were in Philadelphia.  And each game was played when the Heat was playing awful basketball.  The defending Eastern conference champs got off to a 7-14 start (6-13-1 ATS), but they've been playing very good basketball since.  Indeed, over its last 48 games, Miami is 31-17 SU and 26-21-1 ATS).  This will be Miami's final home game of the season, while it will also be the 76ers' final road game.  And that set of events has triggered a very good 99-59-4 ATS "last home game" system of mine, which has gone 26-7-2 ATS since 2013, as well as a second "last home game" system which has cashed 84 of 129 since 1991.  Although both of these teams would certainly like to win tonight's game for playoff positioning, it's less important to the 76ers, as they only need to win one of their final three games to secure the conference's #1 seed.  And Philly has two very winnable home games vs. the Magic on deck.  The Heat, on the other hand, are locked in a three-way battle for home court advantage with the Hawks and Knicks.  And Miami has a difficult finishing schedule with road games at Milwaukee and Detroit on the weekend.  I look for Miami to get the win tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Utah.  After dropping seven of eight games in April, the Blazers have caught fire.  Since April 27, they've won eight of nine, including 5-1 SU/ATS on the road.  Tonight, they'll be in Salt Lake City to take on the league's #1 team, Utah.  Portland has yet to defeat Utah this season, but the Jazz are currently playing short-handed, as Donavan Mitchell and Mike Conley remain sidelined.  Portland blew out the Spurs (124-102) and Rockets (140-129) at home in their last two games -- both at home.  And that bodes well for Portland tonight, as it's 27-10 ATS on the road off back to back home wins, including a perfect 8-0-1 ATS when priced from +3 to +5.5 points.  Finally, the Jazz are a wallet-breaking 5-24-1 ATS vs. double-revenging foes, if the Jazz were not favored by 7+ points.  Take the Trail Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over the Dallas Mavericks.  Memphis comes into this game off back-to-back wins over Toronto and New Orleans, and now sits just a half-game behind Golden State for the all-important #8 seed in the Play-In Round.  Likewise, Dallas is playing well, with four straight wins.  And the Mavericks also triumphed over Memphis in the first two meetings this season.  But we'll take the revenge-minded Grizzlies as a home underdog tonight, as they're 21-12 ATS as an underdog this season.  Even better:  Memphis is 21-1 ATS at home when playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a win, provided Memphis was not favored by more than 2 points.  Take the Grizzlies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over New Orleans.  The NBA's Western conference has a great race between the Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors coming down the stretch.  Both teams have lost 33 games and, as it now stands, would meet each other in the 'play-in' round should the season end today.  But there will be a significant advantage conferred to the team which finishes with the better record, as it will only have to win one of two 'play-in' games, while the team with the lesser record will have to win two 'play-in' games to advance into the conference quarterfinals.  So, these final games are ultra-important for Memphis.  We'll lay the points tonight, as the Grizzlies play with revenge from a 31-point blowout loss to New Orleans earlier in the season.  And NBA teams with a better record than their opponent, have gone 71-48-2 ATS if they were playing with revenge from a 25-point (or worse) defeat, and their opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  With the Pelicans in off an upset win over Charlotte on Sunday, we'll fade Stan Van Gundy's men tonight.  Take Memphis.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Denver.  We played against Denver last night, and got the $$$ with the Utah Jazz, who won, 127-120, as a 4.5-point home favorite.  "Out of the frying pan, and into the fire" would certainly apply to Denver's situation tonight, as it has to go from playing the league's #1 team to a game against a rested Nets squad.  And, to make matters worse, the Nets have lost their last four games SU/ATS, so they'll be in an ornery mood tonight.  Denver is a poor 52-96-1 ATS at home when playing without rest.  And it's 0-8 ATS its last eight (and 8-29 ATS its last 37) against the Nets, if it wasn't favored by 5+ points.  Take Brooklyn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points with New York.  Last week, we took the Suns at the Knicks, and were rewarded with an 8-point win, 118-110.  And we'll come right back with Phoenix in this rematch.  The Suns were upset by Atlanta, 135-103, on Wednesday.  But they're 45-14 ATS their last 59 off an upset road loss.  Take Phoenix.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Sacramento.  San Antonio dropped its fifth straight game on Wednesday, 126-94, at Utah, while the Kings won for the fourth straight time, 104-93, at Indiana.  The Spurs are in the 10th spot right now, and need to stay ahead of Sacramento and New Orleans to qualify for the play-in round.  Coming into tonight, the Spurs are 1.5 games in front of the Pelicans, and 2.5 games clear of Sacramento.  This game is the only match-up left on the schedule which pits two of the three teams, so this game will be critical in determining which of the three teams earns a post-season berth.  We'll take the Spurs minus the points, as the Silver and Black have gone 42-12 ATS as a favorite off a loss by 18+ points, if their opponent was off a point spread win in its previous game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Denver.  The Nuggets blew out New York, 113-97, on Wednesday, for their 18th win over their last 22 games.  But off that 16-point blowout, we will fade the Nuggets tonight, as they're 16-38 ATS on the road off a win by more than 8 points.  Lay the points with the Jazz.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Dallas.  The Cavaliers come into this game on an 8-game SU/ATS losing streak, and will play the Mavericks twice this weekend (today, and Sunday).  We'll grab the points with Cleveland in this game, as rested road underdogs off a SU/ATS loss, and 7 ATS losses in a row, are a solid 88-54-3 ATS, including 29-10 ATS vs. foes playing their third game in four nights.  And that's the situation here, as the Mavericks played last night vs. Brooklyn, as well as on Tuesday, at Miami.  Take Cleveland + the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over the Atlanta Hawks.  Atlanta comes into tonight's game off a 3-game SU/ATS sweep of its home stand, including a blowout win last night over Phoenix.  Meanwhile, the Pacers check in off back to back SU/ATS wins.  We'll take Indiana tonight, and go against the Hawks, as unrested NBA road teams off 3 SU/ATS home wins are a poor 31% ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take the Pacers as a home underdog on Thursday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Dallas.  The Nets were drilled, 115-98, earlier this season by Dallas, so they will seek revenge in this rematch in Texas.  And they're 45-22 ATS on the road when playing with revenge, so that bodes well for the Nets tonight.  It's true that Brooklyn comes into this game off 3 straight losses.  But .650 (or better) road favorites have covered 57% over the last 31 years as road favorites of 3+ losses.  Take Brooklyn.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over Charlotte.  The Bulls are favored on the road tonight, even though they have a worse record than Charlotte, and have dropped each of their last four games, SU/ATS.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the home underdog Hornets.  But consider that NBA road favorites (or PK), that are off back to back SU/ATS losses, have covered the spread 67% since 1990 against .400 (or better) foes that have a better W/L record.  More good news for Chicago:  leading scorer Zach Levine (27.5 ppg) should return to action tonight.  Lay the points with Chicago.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Sacramento.  The Pacers were defeated, 154-141 by the Wizards on Monday, while Sacramento won last night, 103-99, in Oklahoma City.  That was Sacramento's 3rd straight win, and 8th cover (against just two ATS losses) in its last 10 games.  When these two teams met in Sacramento earlier this season, the Kings upset the Pacers, 127-122.  But I love Indiana to turn the tables tonight, as it's 22-11 its last 33 as a revenge-minded favorite.  And it's 49-24 ATS off a loss by 13+ points, if it's now matched up against a .400 (or better) foe.  Take the Pacers minus the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans over the Golden State Warriors.  Last night's loss to the Warriors may have been New Orleans' death knell, as it now trails the 8th-seeded Warriors by four games, and the 10th-seeded San Antonio Spurs by 2.5 games, with just seven to play.  Tonight, the Pelicans will get another crack at Golden State in the 2nd of this 2-game series.  And New Orleans knows it must win this home game, as it faces an extremely difficult schedule down the stretch.  After tonight, the Pels will hit the road for 5 straight games -- all against teams currently qualifying for the Playoffs.  And then New Orleans will come back home to face the Lakers to end the regular season.  We'll take New Orleans tonight as a small favorite, as they fall into a 64% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams in the 2nd of a back to back set against the same opponent.  Additionally, the Warriors are 30-50 ATS their last 80 games off a SU win.  Take New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the New York Knicks.  The Knicks won (and covered) again on Sunday, as they blew out the Houston Rockets, 122-97.  That was New York's 14th ATS win in its last 15 games played.  Tonight, New York will be saddled with playing without rest, while Memphis will be rested following its shocking loss on Saturday at Orlando.  Memphis was up by nine points entering the 4th quarter, but fell, 112-111, to the Magic.  But off that loss, Memphis falls into an 83% ATS (since 1991) system of mine which has won 14 in a row.  Even better:  the Grizzlies lost in overtime, 133-129, earlier this year at New York (also blowing a 15-point lead in that game), but are 36-21 ATS, 63%, when playing with revenge from an upset defeat.  Meanwhile, the Knicks are 4-14 ATS, 22%, on the road vs. a foe it upset in the previous meeting.  And, finally, revenge-minded teams that gave up 125+ points in an upset loss are 102-68 ATS, 60%, when playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win.  With Memphis in off a game where they blew a big lead, and playing with revenge against an opponent that also mounted a big comeback win, I fully expect the Grizzlies to be ultra-focused tonight.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks over the Portland Trail Blazers.  Damian Lillard & Co. went into Beantown yesterday, and upended the Celtics at TD Garden, 129-119. That was Portland's 4th straight win (and cover), which sets up our play tonight.  The Hawks have been dominant over the years here, in Atlanta, vs. opponents off 4+ wins, as they're 72-46 ATS, including 28-8 ATS vs. unrested foes.  And they're also 41-27 ATS at home when rested, and not laying 7+ points vs. unrested Western conference foes.  Finally, the Blazers are a wallet-busting 13-30 ATS vs. revenge-minded, winning Eastern conference foes when Portland isn't getting 3+ points.  Take the Hawks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over New York.  The Knicks come into this game off a 17-point blowout win over Chicago at Madison Square Garden - their 13th ATS win in 14 games.  But this will be a difficult task for New York as it's favored by a huge amount on the road.  And it's the biggest number New York has been favored by on the road since March 21, 2014, which is troubling considering the fact that it's 6-18 ATS its last 24 as a road favorite of more than 6 points.  We played against Houston last night, and got the $$$ with Miami, in a 26-point blowout.  The Rockets will once again play at home tonight, and we'll grab the points with Houston, as I look for them to bounce back today.  Indeed, home teams that lost by 15+ points at home the previous day, have cashed 69% since 1990 when matched up against opponents off a SU/ATS home win.  Take the Rockets + the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Charlotte.  Miami won its second straight game last night, with a 124-107 blowout of Cleveland.  It will seek its 3rd straight win and cover tonight, as it travels to Charlotte to play the Hornets.  It's true that Charlotte has defeated Miami in each of the first two meetings this season.  But double-revenging road favorites (or PK) have cashed 59% in the regular season since 1990 if they were off a SU win.  Take Miami.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Sacramento.  These two teams met six days ago, and the Mavs were upset on the road, 113-106, by Sacramento.  Dallas hasn't lost since, and it eked out a 1-point win against Washington last night.  Today, Dallas will go for its 4th straight win and cover, and has been installed as a big favorite vs. the Kings, who upset the Lakers on Friday.  Unfortunately for Sacramento, it's covered just 50 of 122 games off a win, if it was a road underdog against a revenge-minded foe.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Denver Nuggets.  These two Western conference rivals are battling it out for 3rd place, so this game will go a long way toward determining the teams' playoff seeding.  We'll go against Denver off its double-digit victory against Toronto, and take Los Angeles to bounce back off its 109-101 defeat at Phoenix on Wednesday.  That was the Clippers' second straight defeat.  But each of those losses was on the road; tonight's game is at home.  And L.A. is a solid 45-20 ATS off a loss, including 10-1 ATS when favored by 7 or less points against a winning team.  Meanwhile, Denver is a horrid 15-38 ATS away from home off a win by 9+ points.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met three weeks ago, and Minnesota thoroughly embarrassed New Orleans, 135-105, as an 8-point underdog.  That 30-point loss was the first time in franchise history that New Orleans lost by 30+ points as a favorite of -5 (or more) points.  But we'll lay the points with the Pelicans tonight, as favorites have covered 62.6% since 1990 when playing with revenge from a 15-point (or worse) upset loss as an 8-point (or greater) favorite.  Take New Orleans.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Houston.  The Rockets come into this game off an upset win over the Milwaukee Bucks, 143-136, while Golden State checks in off 2 SU/ATS losses.  We'll lay the points with the Warriors tonight, as Golden State is 33-17 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS losses, if it was playing an opponent off a win.  Even better:  NBA home teams not favored by 7+ points, have cashed just 32% since 1991 off an upset home win as a 7-point (or greater) underdog, if they were playing an opponent off a SU loss in their current game.  Take the Warriors.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over the Phoenix Suns.  We're coming down to the wire in this NBA season, so this game will go a long way toward determining the #1 seed in the Playoffs.  Currently, Utah resides in first place, while Phoenix is just one game behind.  This has been an underdog-oriented series of late, as the dog has cashed each of the last four meetings.  Tonight, Utah's the underdog, primarily because it will play without All Stars Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley.  But there's still enough firepower on Utah's roster to get the 'W.'  Indeed, the Jazz scored 154 points on Wednesday (the most points scored by an NBA team this season), in a 49-point blowout of the Sacramento Kings.  We played on the Jazz in that game, and will come right back with them tonight.  For technical support, consider that .720 (or better) NBA road underdogs of 2+ points have covered 73.6% in the regular season since 1990 when playing with double revenge.  Take the Jazz + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Two nights ago, the Thunder snapped their 14-game losing streak with an upset win over the Boston Celtics.  But off that rare victory, we'll fade OKC as a home underdog on Thursday.  Indeed, home dogs of +8 (or more) points off an upset win have covered just 33% since 1991 vs. non-division foes off a straight-up loss.  Take the Pelicans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Sacramento.  The Kings upset Dallas, 113-106, on Monday, while the Jazz come into this game off back to back upset losses -- both to the Minnesota Timberwolves.  We played on Utah in its last game and (unfortunately) lost.  But we'll come right back with the Jazz tonight, as Sacramento is a terrible 19-40 ATS at home off a SU/ATS win, when it is playing an opponent off a SU/ATS loss.  And NBA favorites are 71.1% ATS since 1991 off a SU loss as a double-digit road favorite, if they're playing an opponent off a win.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.