At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Toronto.  These Atlantic division rivals met six days ago here, in Tampa (the Raptors' home base for the season), and the Raptors prevailed, 114-103.  That game, though, was a good set-up for Toronto, as it was well-rested, while the Nets had played the previous night.  And neither Kevin Durant nor James Harden played for Brooklyn in that game.  Durant is healthy again, and Brooklyn is currently riding a two-game win streak, with impressive wins over Boston and Phoenix.  The Nets are a super 44-21 ATS on the road when playing with revenge.  Take Brooklyn minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Charlotte.  The Bucks were stung by the Hornets in the last meeting, as Charlotte upset them, 127-119.  But with revenge on its mind, and also off an upset loss in its previous game, we'll look for Milwaukee to bounce back this evening.   And Charlotte's win a few weeks ago must be taken with a grain of salt, as Giannis Antetokounmpo didn't play in that game.   But the MVP is back on the court now, and scored 31 points on Sunday vs. Atlanta.  Milwaukee's 45-20 ATS as a road favorite, priced from -5.5 to -10.5 points, while Charlotte is a horrible 46-89 ATS at home vs. non-division foes playing back to back road games, if such foe failed to cover the spread in its previous game.  Lay the points with the Bucks.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over the Indiana Pacers.  Portland plays this game with revenge from a 24-point upset home loss to these Pacers on January 14.  And that bodes well for the Blazers, as they've cashed 75% over the last 31 years as a favorite of -2 (or more) points, when playing with revenge from a double-digit home loss.  And, notwithstanding its loss to Indiana in January, the Trail Blazers are still 13-3 ATS vs. the Pacers in the last 16 meetings, including 6-1 here in Indianapolis, and 7-0 ATS if Indy was off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Lay the points with Portland.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met two nights ago in Salt Lake City, and the T-Wolves stunned the Jazz, 101-96, as a 12-point underdog.  And even more stunning is the fact that the 17-44 Timberwolves also defeated the 44-16 Jazz in the season's first meeting -- also in Salt Lake -- as a 9.5-point underdog, 116-111.  But with revenge from those two losses, we'll lay the points with Utah tonight, as double-revenge-minded road teams have cashed 90% over the last 31 seasons if they owned a win percentage at least 33% greater than their opponent.  Even worse for the T-Wolves:  in the regular season, teams playing back to back games against the same opponent are a horrible 23.8% ATS since 1995 if they won the first meeting on the road as an underdog of 7 (or more) points.  As faithful followers know, I love playing against bad teams off wins.  And Minnesota is a wallet-breaking 5-17-1 ATS off an upset win, including 0-12 ATS when priced as an underdog from +6 to +17 points.  Take Utah to blow out Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over New York.  The Knicks come into this game off nine straight wins, including double-digit upset wins over Atlanta (137-127) and Toronto (120-103) in their last two.  Unfortunately for New York, underdogs off back to back double-digit upset wins, in which they scored 120+ points, have gone 0-10 ATS.  Take Phoenix to blow out New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Orlando Magic.  The Lakers come into tonight's game on a 3-Game SU/ATS losing streak.  But those three losses were to the Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks (twice).  Tonight's game is against the Orlando Magic, who are on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak (and who have lost 11 of their last 12 games).  The problem for the Magic is that they've had a "red carpet" defense of late.  Four of their last five opponents have shot 50% from the floor.  The Magic are an atrocious 4-17-1 ATS at home vs. foes off a loss, including 1-10-1 ATS as an underdog.  Lay the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Atlanta.  These two teams have already met twice this season, with each game won by the Hawks.  But both games were competitive (Detroit lost by eight, 128-120, on December 28, and in overtime on January 20), and both games were in Atlanta.  Tonight's game is in the Motor City, and we'll grab the points with the home underdog.  The Pistons are competing hard this season for coach Dwane Casey, and they're at their best when they're off an ATS loss, as they're 20-5 ATS in that situation, including 8-1 ATS as a home underdog.  Atlanta will be at a scheduling disadvantage tonight, as it will be unrested, and playing its 3rd game in four nights (and fifth game in seven nights).  Meanwhile, the Pistons are rested.  And revenge-minded NBA teams off a loss have cashed 59.2% ATS vs. unrested foes off a win that were playing their 3rd game in four nights.  Take the Pistons.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Charlotte.  This series has been dominated lately by the Celtics, as they've won the last four meetings by 21, 26, 17 and 30 points.  Even better for Boston:  it's 16-3-1 ATS over the last 20 meetings, including 10-1 ATS if the Hornets were off a win, and 7-0 ATS if Boston was laying 7+ points.  Boston does come into this game off a SU/ATS loss to the Brooklyn Nets, but it's a solid 34-18-2 ATS as a rested favorite, away from home, off a loss.  Meanwhile, the Hornets are a wallet-busting 24-47-2 ATS at home off a SU/ATS win, if matched up against a rested, non-division foe off a loss.  Lay the points with the Celtics.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Detroit.  This game will be the 2nd in two nights for Detroit, and also its fifth game in seven nights.  Unfortunately for Detroit, the Spurs have generally done well vs. unrested teams, as they've gone 100-73 ATS.  But those numbers zoom to 25-9 ATS if the Spurs are off an upset loss, including 5-1 ATS if San Antonio's foe was playing its fifth game in seven nights.  Last night, Gregg Popovich's crew were embarrassed here, at home, by the Miami Heat, 107-87.  We'll play on the Silver and Black to rebound this evening, as San Antonio is 41-12-2 ATS as a favorite off a loss by more than 17 points, when matched up against a foe off an ATS win.  Take San Antone.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met here, in Sacramento, last night.  And the Timberwolves came away with a 134-120 upset win.  Unfortunately for Minnesota, unrested teams off upset wins the previous day, have covered just 37% since Dec. 21, 1990, if they scored more than 130 points in that upset win.  Moreover, Minnesota is a poor 27-46-1 ATS off an upset road win, including 6-21 ATS when priced between +3 and +8 points.  Take the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Detroit.  The Mavs were upset by Sacramento, here at home, in their previous game, while Detroit upset the Cavaliers in its most recent game.  That bodes well for the Mavericks, as they're 116-72 ATS off a loss when playing an opponent off a win.  Lay the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over the New York Knicks.  Last night, New York covered the point spread in its 10th straight game.  But we'll fade New York tonight, as home teams have covered just 13% of the time off 10+ ATS wins in the regular season, if they also covered the spread by 5+ points in their previous game.  Take Atlanta + the points.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over the New York Knicks.  It's often said that "all good things must come to an end," and that's the case today with the Knicks ATS win streak.  Dating back to April 3, New York has covered its last eight games.  But New York is a horrid 0-12 ATS if it was on a 7-game (or better) ATS win streak, and wasn't getting 6+ points in its current game.  This is also a rematch of a game won by the Knicks, 116-106, in New Orleans this past Wednesday.  But New York is a wallet-breaking 34.6% ATS over the last 31 years as a favorite of more than 2 points against a non-conference foe it upset in the previous meeting earlier in the season.  Finally, New Orleans comes into this game off back to back upset defeats.  However, the Pelicans are 8-1 ATS their last 9 off two straight upset losses.  Take the points with New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over the Minnesota Timberwolves.  This will be Miami's final game in its 4-game road trip.  And, after losing back to back games against Phoenix and Denver, Miami will no doubt be happy to play the NBA's worst team tonight.  Minnesota has won just 14 of its 56 games this season.  And, since 1990, losing teams are a poor 43% ATS as home dogs in non-division games vs. rested, winning teams off back to back losses.  Additionally, Miami is 25-6 ATS away from home off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take the Heat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks over the Atlanta Hawks.  Giannis Antetokounmpo has just been upgraded to 'probable,' so we'll put the trigger on the Bucks.  Both teams do come into this game on win streaks.  The Bucks routed the Magic by 37, and the Timberwolves by 25.  Meanwhile, Atlanta's won its last three in a row, including back to back upset wins over Charlotte and Toronto in their last two.  Generally speaking, I like to go against teams off back to back upset wins, and especially if they're matched up against foes also in good form, off back to back wins, themselves.  Dating back to 1990, our teams off back to back upset wins are a poor 166-228 ATS.  That doesn't bode well for Atlanta tonight.  Nor does the fact that the Hawks have lost 11 of the last 12 meetings, straight-up, vs. Milwaukee.  And Atlanta's only win was by a single point, 136-135, in overtime.  Finally, Atlanta's a poor 20-39 ATS as home dogs off a win, if they're matched up against a non-division foe.  Lay the points with Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks over the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Mavs come into tonight's game off back to back home losses, including an 18-point blowout at the hands of the Philly 76ers.  I love Dallas to rebound off those defeats, and get the W tonight at Memphis.  Indeed, the Mavs are 24-6 straight-up, and 23-6-1 ATS their last 30 as road favorites of less than 7 points, including a perfect 4-0 ATS off back to back losses.  Even better:  Dallas is a terrific 77-39-1 ATS off a loss by 14+ points.  And it's 116-71 ATS off a loss, if its opponent was off a straight-up win.  Take the Mavericks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors. It has just been announced that Trae Young will not play for Atlanta, so that's enough for us to pull the trigger on the Raptors. Take Toronto tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over the Phoenix Suns.  We played on Houston last Monday vs. these Suns, and got the cash when the Rockets lost by just three points, 133-130, as a 14-point home underdog.  And we also played on the Suns in their last game, which was an easy win for us vs. the Wizards (134-106).  Tonight, we'll once again take Houston as a double-digit underdog, as it comes into this game off back to back blowout losses, at the Clippers, and at the Warriors.  But Houston is a solid 91-59 ATS on the road as an underdog off back to back ATS losses, including 39-17 ATS when playing with revenge.  And Phoenix is a horrid 9-29 ATS as a favorite of 9+ points, if it was off a win, in which it covered by 9+ points.  And the Suns are also 0-7 ATS their last seven vs. Houston, if the Suns were off a double-digit win.  Take the Rockets + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Orlando Magic.  Milwaukee's banged-up right now, as many key players (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Donte DiVincenzo, Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton) missed its last game -- a 127-119 loss to Charlotte.  The good news tonight is that Milwaukee should still have its way with the Magic, regardless of which Bucks players suit up for this game.  Orlando's lost four straight, and 17 of 21.  And it's an awful 16-33 ATS its last 49 vs. .595 (or better) foes.  Milwaukee, meanwhile, is 34-17 ATS vs. sub-.650 foes, if Milwaukee lost its previous game.  Finally, over the last 31 years, road favorites with a win percentage greater than .600, have covered 65% off 3 SU/ATS losses, if matched up against a non-division foe.  Lay the points with Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Charlotte.  These two teams are surprisingly having strong seasons, as they sit in the 4th (Charlotte) and 5th (Atlanta) spots in the Eastern conference.  So, this game is critical for playoff positioning.  We'll take the Hawks, as they fall into a 145-66 ATS revenge system of mine, after losing, 113-105, to the Hornets in the last meeting.  Additionally, the Hawks are 11-3 ATS when playing with revenge from a road loss.  And, since 1990, they've cashed 67% as road favorites vs. winning teams, if Atlanta was playing with revenge from an upset loss.  Lay the points with Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Washington Wizards.  Yesterday, the Wizards upset Golden State, 110-107, as a 4.5-point road underdog.  But off that upset win, we'll fade Washington in the Valley of the Sun tonight, as Phoenix is playing with revenge from a 128-107 upset loss to Washington earlier this season.  The Suns are 33-18 ATS this season -- an NBA best -- and they're doing their best work at home, where they've covered the spread by 3.37 points per game.  The Suns are 15-5 ATS their last 20 at home, and they also fall into a 58-22 ATS system of mine which plays on certain .673 (or better) teams playing with revenge from losses by more than 20 points.  Finally, since 1997, Phoenix has covered 63% at home off a loss vs. foes off upset road wins.  Take Phoenix to blow out Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies and Hawks both played last night.  Memphis went into Miami, and upset the Heat, 124-112, for its 3rd straight win (and 5th straight cover).  Meanwhile, Atlanta defeated New Orleans here, at home, 123-107, for its fourth straight win and cover.  We'll go against Memphis tonight, as this will be its 3rd road game in four nights.  And NBA teams that were playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights, have covered just 37% over the past 31 seasons if they were off two wins, and matched up against an opponent with a better W/L record, which was off back to back SU/ATS wins.  The Hawks are a super 105-56-4 ATS at home in the regular season vs. foes off 3+ wins, including 31-8-2 ATS its last 41 if its opponent was unrested.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Philadelphia.  These two teams met earlier this season in Philadelphia for a back-to-back set.  And the 76ers won each of those two games, by 8 and 12 points, respectively.  But this game is in Boston, and we'll take the homestanding Celtics to avenge those defeats.  Boston comes into this game off back-to-back blowout wins over Houston (118-102) and Charlotte (116-86), and has gone 5-2 ATS its last seven.  That bodes well for Brad Stevens men tonight, as they're 56-23 ATS off a home blowout win by more than 20 points.  And they're 32-12 ATS at home when not favored by 3+ points, including a perfect 9-0 ATS off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Philadelphia, meanwhile, has dropped four of its last five to the point spread.  And the 76ers are a poor 8-22-1 ATS as road favorites vs. .500 (or better) foes off a win, including 0-7-1 ATS if their foe was playing with revenge.  Take the Celtics.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over the Phoenix Suns.  The Rockets are 2-25 straight-up, and 5-22 ATS over their last 27 games.  Their problems started when forward Christian Wood sustained an injury in the February 4 game at Memphis, and the Rockets lost their next 20 games.  But Wood returned to action on March 17.  And, then, over the next week, Houston made roster moves to bring in Kelly Olynyk, Avery Bradley, D.J. Augustin, and D.J. Wilson.  And it is now playing better basketball, as it's 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS its last seven, and has "only" been outscored by an average of 4.42 ppg over this stretch.  Tonight, Houston has been installed as a huge home underdog against the Western conference's #2 seed, the Phoenix Suns, who are on a 5-game winning streak.  This is a letdown spot, as the Suns blew out Oklahoma City by 37 points on Friday, and have games against the two teams (Jazz, Clippers) that sit above and below them in the standings, on Wednesday and Thursday.  We'll take Houston tonight, as double-digit home underdogs, with a win percentage less than .285, off a straight-up loss, have gone 140-73 ATS vs. .630 (or better) foes that are off a straight-up win.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Atlanta.  The Warriors were blasted, 130-77, by the Toronto Raptors on Friday.  But off that loss, we'll take Golden State to rebound this evening against the Hawks.  The good news for Steve Kerr's troops is that superstar Steph Curry will be back on the court tonight.  Curry has missed six of the Warriors' last eight games, due to a tailbone contusion, but was upgraded to 'probable' on Saturday afternoon.  As faithful followers know, I love to play on teams off big losses.  And they don't get much worse than 53 points.  Indeed, NBA favorites (or PK) off losses by more than 40 points have cashed 68.1% over the last 31 seasons!  That bodes well for Golden State on Sunday night.  As does the fact that the Warriors will be playing this game with revenge from a 124-108 loss earlier this season in San Francisco.  And Golden State is a super 51-25 ATS on the road when playing with revenge.  Meanwhile, the Hawks have covered just 34 of 95 as underdogs against rested, revenge-minded foes that they beat by more than 10 points earlier in the season (and just 14 of 55 if their opponent was off a SU/ATS loss).  Take the Warriors.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Last night, the Kings were blown out here, at home, by the injury riddled Los Angeles Lakers.  Los Angeles played without LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and newly-signed Andre Drummond, which made Sacramento a 5-point home favorite.  No matter.  The Lakers won without their stars, 115-94.  Perhaps Sacramento thought it was going to have it easy, and lost focus?  But, as luck would have it, tonight they will face Milwaukee without MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.  However, with last night's result fresh in the minds of the Kings, I fully expect them to NOT take the Bucks lightly tonight.  Instead, I look for Sacramento to be focused, with an eye toward redeeming itself off its 21-point home loss last night.  The Bucks come into this game off back to back road wins.  But, since 1999, Milwaukee's covered just 38% on the road off back to back road wins.  Take Sacramento.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Orlando.  Will this finally be the year that Utah wins an NBA title?  The Jazz certainly are playing like it.  They're 2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency; 3rd in adjusted defensive efficiency; and #1 (by a mile) in Net adjusted efficiency.  Indeed, the only other teams that rank among the top 10 in both adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency are the Suns and Bucks.  But they're 3.75 and 4.24 points, respectively, behind Utah in Net adjusted efficiency.  Not surprisingly, the Jazz are also doing great "in Vegas," as they're #2 in the NBA with a .625 ATS win percentage (30-18 ATS), trailing only the Phoenix Suns (32-16 ATS).  Utah did, however, fail to cover the point spread in each of its two previous games.  But in the 2nd half of the NBA season (Game 42 forward), NBA teams with a .625 (or better) ATS win percentage, off back to back ATS losses, have rebounded to cover the spread 72.4% over the last 31 years when they were playing at home.  Even better:  Utah's 17-4 ATS its last 21 at home; 8-2 ATS its last 10 at home when playing without rest; and 151-109 ATS at home off back to back ATS losses.  Lay the points with the Jazz.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Cleveland.  The Sixers will once again play without center Joel Embiid tonight.  But Cleveland's injury problems are even worse.  We'll lay the points with Philly tonight, as it's playing with double-revenge from two losses to Cleveland earlier this season, including a 112-109 defeat as an 11.5-point favorite in the last meeting.  The good news for Philadelphia in this game is that winning NBA teams are 93-65 ATS when laying more than 6 points against a losing team, if our winning team was playing with double revenge.  Even better:  if our revenger was favored by 8+ points in the previous meeting, then our 93-65 stat zooms to 28-10 ATS, including a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven.  It's true that Cleveland does come into this game off an embarrassing 39-point loss at Utah.  But the Cavaliers are 0-11 ATS their last 11, and 74-125-4 ATS their last 203 off a 17-point (or worse) defeat.  Take Philadelphia minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Sacramento.  These two teams met on Monday, here in the Alamo City. And the Kings blew out the Spurs, 132-115.  We'll lay the points with the Spurs in this rematch, as the Spurs are 29-12 ATS in the regular season at home, when playing with revenge.  Even better:  the Spurs are 64-27 ATS off a loss by 15+ points, if they weren't an underdog of more than 2 points in their current game, and their opponent wasn't off a SU/ATS loss.  And, finally, when the Spurs have played an opponent who the Spurs lost to in their previous game, they've gone 48-24-3 ATS if they were favored (or PK'em) in that next game.  Take San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over Washington.  The Wizards pulled off an upset, 132-124, last night, as a 7-point home underdog vs. Indiana.  Unfortunately, unrested teams off an upset home win, in which they scored 130+ points, have covered just 28% over the past 31 seasons.  That doesn't bode well for Washington tonight.  Nor does the fact that Charlotte blew it out by a 119-97 score when these two Southeast division rivals met last month.  And Washington is a poor 16-36 ATS at home when playing with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) defeat when it wasn't getting 4+ points in the current game.  Take Charlotte.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Houston.  The Rockets won for just the 2nd time over their last 24 games when the upset Minnesota, 129-107, on Saturday.  But off that upset win, we'll fade Houston tonight vs. Memphis, as sub-.300 home underdogs have covered just 28% over the last 31 years off an upset road win, if they were matched up against a division opponent off a SU/ATS road loss.  Take Memphis minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Memphis.  These two teams met here in Salt Lake City last night, and the Jazz won, 117-114, as a 10-point home favorite, but failed to cover the spread.  But that game was an outlier for this Memphis team, as it had been 0-12 ATS its previous 12 road games when getting more than 4 points.  I look for a reversion to form tonight, and for Utah to blow out Memphis.  The Jazz are 12-1 ATS at home off back to back wins, and they're also 196-142-7 ATS at home vs. unrested foes when priced from -2 to -15 points.  Take the Jazz.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met last night here in the Twin Cities, and Minnesota emerged victorious with a 107-101 victory as a 4.5-point home favorite.  We'll take the Rockets in the rematch, as .400 (or worse) teams have only covered the spread 33% of the time in back to back meetings since 1990, if they won the first meeting.  And Houston's 79-38 ATS as a road underdog off back to back ATS losses, if they also lost their previous game, straight-up.  Take the Rockets.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Houston/Minnesota game.  The Rockets have gone 'under' 28-13 in 2021, including 9-1 'under' in games with O/U lines greater than 227.  And they're also 13-0 'under' their last 13 when priced from +3 to +6 points.  Meanwhile, Minnesota's gone 'under' 13-4 when priced as a home favorite, including 7-0 'under' when laying more than 4 points.  Take the 'under.'

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Toronto.  The Suns pulled a clunker on Wednesday night, as they were upset by the Magic, 112-111, as a 9.5-point road favorite.  But we'll look for Phoenix to rebound tonight, as it's 12-1 ATS its last 13, and 44-13 ATS its last 57, off an upset road loss, including 8-0 ATS vs. an opponent off an upset win.  With Toronto, indeed, off an upset of Denver in its last game, we'll fade the Raptors tonight.  Take Phoenix minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Los Angeles.  The Clippers led wire-to-wire last night, and blew out San Antonio, 134-101.  Off that blowout defeat, we'll back San Antonio tonight in the rematch.  For technical support, consider that San Antonio is 29-11 ATS its last 40 at home in the regular season when playing with revenge.  Likewise, the Clippers are an awful 15-38 ATS off a SU/ATS win, when favored by 4+ points against a revenge-minded foe.  And, league-wide, NBA home dogs of +6 (or more) points, that lost by 19+ points the previous day at home, have cashed 61.1% over the past 31 seasons.  Take San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Brooklyn.  This is a huge revenge game for the Jazz, who suffered their worst loss of this season earlier this year against the Nets.  Brooklyn won that game by 34 points.  But tonight's game is a great set-up for the homestanding Jazz.  Brooklyn had to play Portland last night in a game which went down to the wire.  The Nets did win that game (their second straight), but teams off back-to-back wins are a wallet-busting 31-54 ATS when playing without rest on the road against a rested Jazz team, and not getting more than 10 points.  And rested Northwest division teams, with a .600 (or better) record, are 91-54 ATS in the regular season off a win, if they were playing with revenge.  Take Utah to blow out Brooklyn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Los Angeles.  The Spurs already defeated the Clippers once this season.  And they'll get two more tries at it this week, as this is the first of a 2-game home series vs. ex-Spur Kawhi Leonard's Clippers.  The Spurs come into this game off back to back losses to Milwaukee + Charlotte.  But San Antone is 86-50 ATS at home off an upset loss as a 3-point (or greater) favorite.  Take the Spurs as a home underdog.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Thunder finished off their four-game road trip with back to back upset wins over the Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves.  But those two teams have a combined record of 22-63.  Memphis, on the other hand, is a .500 ball club.  It's true that OKC recently upset Memphis, 128-122, as a 9.5-point home underdog, on March 14.  But the Grizz are an awesome 27-5 ATS when playing with revenge against an opponent off a win, when Memphis not getting more than 7 points.   And losing teams are a poor 61-100 ATS as underdogs when playing a revenge-minded team they upset as 9-point (or greater) underdogs in the previous meeting.  Take Memphis minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors over the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets won at Orlando lat night, 110-99.  But off that win, we will fade Nikola Jokic & Co. this evening.  Indeed, Denver is a dreadful 3-19 ATS as a road favorite off a win by more than 8 points.  Meanwhile, Toronto is 95-62 ATS off back to back losses.  I look for Nick Nurse's men to snap their losing streak tonight.  Take Toronto.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Brooklyn.  We played against Portland on Sunday, and got the $$$ when Dallas blew them out by 40 points, 132-92.  We'll take the Trail Blazers to bounce back on Tuesday, as rested home teams have gone 61% ATS off a blowout home loss by 25+ points, if they were matched up against a winning opponent which won its previous game.  Take the Trail Blazers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks over the Portland Trail Blazers.  Dallas lost by 6 points here to the Blazers on Friday.  But the Mavs are 100-50 ATS off a road loss, when playing a non-division foe off a win.  Take Dallas to avenge that defeat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Cleveland.  Toronto finally is getting its full team back on the hardwood.  So, it will have to quickly get back into the win column, if it is to make a run at the post season.  Tonight, it will attempt to snap its 7-game losing streak, and we'll lay the points, as Cleveland is a poor 6-18 ATS off a point spread loss.  Meanwhile, NBA favorites of more than 6 points, have cashed 62% off 6+ losses over the past 31 years.  Take Toronto.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Washington.  The Nets lost a rare ballgame on Friday, as they fell to Orlando, 121-113, as an 11-point road favorite.  But off that loss, we'll lay the points with Brooklyn tonight, as home teams have cashed 79.1% over the last 31 years off an outright loss as a road favorite of more than 10 points, if their opponent was off a win.  With the Wizards, indeed, off a win over Utah, we'll take Brooklyn to blowout Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Indiana.  The Heat were blown out here, at home, by Indiana, 137-110, on Friday.  We'll take the Heat in this rematch, as winning NBA teams, playing with revenge against an opponent which upset it in the previous game by 25+ points, have gone 67% ATS since 1990.  Take Miami.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over San Antonio.  The Bucks have won 5 straight, and 10 of their last 11.  Tonight, they'll welcome San Antonio to Fiserv Forum, where the Bucks are 15-5 this season.  San Antonio had to play last night and, although it won, it is a poor 4-9 ATS on the road if it won the previous night.  The Spurs have also covered just 30.4% since 1990 when getting 2+ points at a rested Eastern Conference opponent, if the Spurs were playing without rest.  Take Milwaukee to blow out San Antone.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Sacramento.  The Kings won on the road last night, when they upset the Boston Bruins.  That was also the Kings' 2nd straight upset win.  We'll go against them tonight, as they're playing without rest, while Philly had the last two nights off.  And unrested teams off back to back upset road wins have covered just 32% since 1991 vs. foes that had the previous two nights off.  Take Philly.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Golden State.  If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.  That will be the attitude of Memphis tonight, as it gets a second chance to defeat Golden State.  Last night, the Warriors won their second straight, when they upset Memphis by 13 points, even though Steph Curry was sidelined.  He will once again be in street clothes, but after losing last night, you can rest assured Memphis won't take the Warriors lightly.  The Warriors are a poor 1-10 ATS their last 11, and 8-24-1 ATS their last 33, off back-to-back wins.  Take Memphis minus the points.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met here last night, and the Suns blew a 15-point, 3rd quarter lead to lose, 123-119.  We'll take Phoenix in the rematch, as NBA teams have gone 27-9 ATS when playing the 2nd of back-to-back games against a foe which upset it as a 9.5-point (or bigger) underdog, provided that foe's W/L percentage was .600 (or less).  Additionally, the Suns are 11-3 ATS off a loss, while the Timberwolves are 0-23 SU and 6-17 ATS as an unrested underdog off an upset win.  Take the Suns minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over the Detroit Pistons.  Toronto comes into tonight's game off a 118-95 loss at Chicago on Monday.  The Raptors are also currently mired in a 5-game losing streak, including a 129-105 home loss to these Pistons just 14 days ago.  But that upset defeat sets up Toronto in a very good revenge situation tonight.  What we want to do is play on any .633 (or worse) NBA team which is favored, and playing with revenge from an upset loss by more than 18 points.  These revengers have cashed to the tune of 64.4% in the regular season, including 4-1-1 ATS already this season.  Indeed, we had one of these plays come up just two days ago when the Clippers avenged a 51-point defeat to the Mavericks.  Even better:  Toronto is 94-59 ATS off back to back losses, and 13-5 ATS its last 18 off a loss by more than 11 points.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers over the Dallas Mavericks.  When these two teams met in December, the Clippers were annihilated by the Mavs, 124-73.  We had one of our two strongest plays of the season-to-date on the Mavericks in that game, but we will go against Dallas tonight.  Our key factor, of course, is the magnitude of the loss by Los Angeles.  Indeed, teams that lose by 50+ points have covered the spread in the next regular season match-up 75% (12-4 ATS) of the time.  And, if we relax our margin of victory from 50 points to 30 points, and then add a couple of other factors:  our opponent is off a SU/ATS win, while our revenge-minded team failed to cover the spread in its previous game (against a different opponent) by 7+ points, then our team playing with 30-point revenge is 19-0 ATS since 1991 if it was also installed as the favorite.  Moreover, before losing by 51 to Dallas, the Clippers had actually dominated this series, with a 7-3 SU/ATS record over the previous 10 meetings.  I look for the Clippers to get the win tonight.  Lay the small number.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over the Phoenix Suns.  The Pacers led most of last night's game at the Los Angeles Lakers, but only scored 14 of the game's final 45 points, and lost, 105-100.  The Pacers will try to bounce back tonight in the Valley of the Sun.  And we'll grab the points with the road underdog.  After losing ATS last night, the Pacers' point spread losing streak has now been stretched to seven games.  However, NBA road underdogs, off a SU/ATS road loss, and 7+ ATS losses, overall, are a solid 57-29-2 ATS.  Grab the points with the Pacers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Minnesota.  The Timberwolves snapped their nine-game losing streak with a 30-point blowout win over the New Orleans Pelicans.  But Minnesota is still a god-awful team.  And I love going against bad teams off wins because -- one of the reasons they are bad -- is that they don't often put two good games together, back-to-back.  This year, for example, Minnesota is 2-5 ATS off a win.  And it's 12-21 ATS its last 33 off a straight-up win, including 2-11 ATS when priced from +4.5 to +14.5 points.  The Trail Blazers lost their first game after the All-Star Break, 127-121, to the Phoenix Suns.  But NBA teams that lose SU/ATS in their first game after the All-Star Break generally rebound in their next game, and have gone 92-68-3 ATS since 1990.  Finally, the Blazers are 10-1 ATS off a loss, if the game is competitively-priced with a point spread of 6 points or less.  I look for Portland to rout the Timberwolves on Saturday.  Lay the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over the Utah Jazz.  Right now, the Rockets are as bad as an NBA team can be.  They've lost 14 straight, and have covered just one of those 14 games.  But the oddsmakers have adjusted, so the Rockets are now getting 18.5 points.  And that's enough for me to pull the trigger on Houston tonight.  For technical support, consider that NBA teams on 7-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks are a solid 131-91-5 ATS on the road, including 26-12 ATS when getting more than 11 points.  That bodes well for the Rockets today.  As does the fact that NBA teams are just 12-28 ATS when laying more than 11 points in their first game after the All-Star Break.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over New Orleans.  The Pelicans upset Utah, 129-124, on Monday, while Chicago lost at home, 118-112, to Denver that same night.  We played on the Pelicans against the Jazz, but will go against them tonight.  Notwithstanding its win, New Orleans is still just 15-19 this season, and I don't trust it as a favorite, as it's covered just 11 of its last 36 as a home favorite.  Moreover, over the last 31 years, NBA home favorites with a losing record have covered just 36% off an outright win as a home dog of +6.5 (or more) points, if they were now matched up against an opponent off a SU/ATS home loss.  Take the Bulls + the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Denver.  The Nuggets won and covered last night in Chicago, 118-112, as a 4.5-point road favorite.  But off that SU/ATS win, we'll fade Nikola Jokic & Co. tonight in Milwaukee, as Denver is a dreadful 31-62 ATS on the road off a point spread win.  Meanwhile, under coach Mike Budenholzer, the Bucks are 35-17 ATS at home when priced from -3 to -10.5 points.  Not surprisingly, the Bucks struggled somewhat (5-5 SU; 4-6 ATS) without Jrue Holiday over a 10-game stretch in February.  But Holiday returned to the court on Sunday, in Milwaukee's 105-100 win over the Clippers.  The quality of his play will no doubt improve as he gets his conditioning back, and Milwaukee should eventually round into the form it displayed the previous two seasons.  For the moment, I believe the Bucks are still a tad undervalued, and the point spread for tonight's game is very favorable.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over Utah.  The Pelicans return home off back to back road losses to San Antonio and Milwaukee.  And they also play with revenge from two road losses to the Utah Jazz.  I look for New Orleans to issue a bit of payback to Utah tonight, as the Pelicans are 25-10 ATS at home when playing with revenge from two road losses earlier in the season, including 13-2 ATS as an underdog.  And the Pels are a fantastic 34-8-1 ATS as a home underdog priced from +5 to +9.5 points against an opponent off a win.  Take New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over Miami.  We played on the Heat on Friday, and easily got the $$$$ when they upset the league's best team (Utah), as a 6.5-point home underdog.  But NBA favorites of -3.5 points (or more) generally have letdowns after upsetting .801 (or better) teams as a home dog of +3.5 (or more) points, when matched up against a foe off a loss, as our favorites are 0-16-1 ATS their last 17.  With Atlanta, indeed, in off a loss to Oklahoma City, we'll take the Hawks + the points on Sunday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Nuggets come into tonight's game off an upset loss at home to the Wizards.  And Denver was favored by 8 points in that game.  Meanwhile, the Thunder upset the Hawks, 118-109, here last night.  Unfortunately for OKC, unrested, sub-.500 NBA home dogs have covered just 29.4% over the last 31 seasons against rested, winning teams, if our road team was off an upset loss in a game where it was favored by more than five points.  The Nuggets will bounce back strong tonight.  Take Denver minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over Washington.  It's true that Minnesota's riding a 6-game SU/ATS losing streak.  But upon close scrutiny, it's clear the Timberwolves are not playing all that poorly.  Indeed, a review of these six games reveals that they failed to cover by 2 points against the Lakers; by a half-point against the Pacers; by 2.5 points against the Raptors; by 1 point against the Knicks; and by 2.5 points against the Bulls.  They played just one horrible game among these six, and that was when the Bucks blew them out by 27 as a 10-point favorite.  But Milwaukee's among the most offensively-explosive teams in the league, so that's hardly unexpected.  We'll look for Minnesota to break through tonight vs. a Washington team off an upset win over the Nuggets as an 8-point underdog.  Unfortunately, the Wizards now fall into a negative 124-206 ATS system of mine that goes against certain .400 (or worse) teams off upset wins.  Even better:  they're 6-26 ATS at home off a road win, if they were not favored by more than three points inthat road game.  Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over Utah.  The Heat are getting healthier, as PG Goran Dragic returned to the lineup two nights ago.  Miami won and covered its fourth straight game, and is 8-3 SU its last 11.  Meanwhile, Utah blew out the Lakers by 25, as an 8.5-point favorite in its last game.  Unfortunately for the Jazz, road favorites have covered just 40% the past 31 years after covering by 10+ points in their previous game, and now playing an opponent off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Take Miami + the big number.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings over Detroit.  After last night's loss at New York, the Kings' losing streak has now reached 9 games.  We'll take Luke Walton's men tonight, as NBA teams on 9-game (or worse) losing streaks have gone 247-183 ATS on the road, including 103-66 ATS off back to back ATS defeats.  Take the Kings.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Chicago Bulls.  The Suns were favored by 9, but upset by Charlotte, 124-121, in their last game.  They'll look to bounce back tonight against a hot Chicago squad which has won and covered 3 straight.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with the Bulls as a home dog.  But be careful, as home dogs off 3 SU/ATS wins have covered just 28% since 1990 vs. .625 (or better) non-division foes off an upset loss in which they failed to cover by 10+ points.  The Suns are 19-6 ATS their last 25 away from home, and they're 30-12 ATS as a favorite away from home off a straight-up loss.  Take the Suns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies blew out Los Angeles last night, 122-94.  But off that 28-point defeat, we'll step in and take Tyronn Lue's men on Friday night.  The Clippers are a super 39-16 ATS their last 55 off a loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS on the road off a double-digit loss.  Even better:  .645 (or better) teams are 12-0 ATS in the regular season if they were playing with revenge from a loss the previous day to a .400 (or better) opponent.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points with Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over Brooklyn.  Both of these teams have played well lately.  The Nets are 7-0 SU/ATS their last seven, though Kevin Durant remains sidelined.  And the Magic are 5-2 ATS their last seven, including outright upset wins over Sacramento, New York, and Golden State (though they were upset, 105-93, by Detroit in their last game).  When these two teams last met -- also here in Brooklyn -- the Nets held off Orlando for a 122-115 victory.  But the Magic covered the number, and it was the 3rd straight meeting here in Brooklyn covered by Orlando.  We'll fade the Nets today, as NBA teams on a 6-game SU/ATS win streak have covered just 39% over the last 41 years vs. foes off an ATS loss by double-digits.  And Brooklyn also falls into negative 23-58 and 11-40 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off a SU/ATS win vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss.  Finally, revenge-minded road teams, off double-digit upset home losses, have gone 81-45 ATS in the regular season vs. foes off SU/ATS wins.  Take the Magic + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings over the New York Knicks.  The Kings have been streaky this season, as they've had ATS losing streaks of 4, 5 and 8 games.  And they've also had an 8-game ATS win streak.  Their latest 8-game SU/ATS losing streak has immediately followed that 8-game ATS win streak, but it's worth noting it has come largely against good teams.  Indeed, the Kings were underdogs in six of their last eight, and were only favored by a single point in one of the two games they weren't an underdog.  So, it's best to not overreact to Sacramento's current losing streak.  Tonight, they'll take on the 15-17 New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden, and have been installed as a small underdog on the opening number.  We'll take Sacramento, as it falls into 225-142, 117-66, and 160-94 ATS systems of mine that play on certain road teams off back to back losses.  Additionally, rested road underdogs, off a SU/ATS loss, and 7+ ATS losses overall, have gone 64% ATS since 1990.  Take  the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  These two teams are among the NBA's three worst teams in February, as the Rockets are 2-9, while the Cavaliers are 2-10 (the Timberwolves are 2-11).  But Cleveland did win last night in dramatic fashion, as Lamar Stevens dunked with 4.1 seconds left to give the Cavs a 112-111 victory over the Atlanta Hawks, as a 7.5-point home underdog.  We'll go against Cleveland off that win, as home dogs are an awful 14-36 ATS off an upset win as a home dog of more than 7 points, if they were playing an opponent off a straight-up loss.  Meanwhile, Houston is 126-80 ATS on the road off back to back losses (and 63-38 ATS on the road off 3+ losses).  And the Rockets are also 24-8 SU and 20-12 ATS their last 32 vs. the Cavaliers.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Washington.  The Wizards pulled off a huge upset last night -- their 3rd upset win in a row -- when they defeated LeBron James' Lakers, in overtime, 127-124.  But off that big upset win, we'll fade the Wizards tonight vs. the Clippers.  Indeed, teams off 3 straight upsets are now 1-21 SU and 5-16-1 ATS their last 22, including 0-10-1 ATS their last 11.  That doesn't bode well for Washington tonight.  Nor does the fact that the Clippers are 38-16 ATS their last 54 off a straight-up loss.  With LA looking to bounce back off its home defeat to Brooklyn on Sunday, we'll lay the points with Kawhi Leonard & Co. tonight.  Take the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Brooklyn.  The Clippers showed what they can do when fully healthy, as they defeated Utah -- the league's best team -- with Kahwi Leonard, Patrick Beverley and Paul George back in the fold.  Tonight, the Clippers will set their sights on Brooklyn, which defeated it in New York, 124-120, earlier this season.  The good news for the Clippers tonight is that Kevin Durant won't be on the court, and he had 28 points and 9 rebound in that first meeting.  It's true that the Nets have won and covered five straight, including a win over the defending champion Lakers on Thursday.  But road dogs of more than 2 points, off an upset win, and off 5 SU/ATS wins overall, are a poor 36.6% ATS since 1990.  Lay the points with the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over Toronto.  The Raptors upset Milwaukee last night -- their 2nd straight upset over the Bucks.  And Toronto was getting 7.5 points last night.  But off those two big road wins, we'll fade the Raptors as a road favorite on Friday night.  And key for us is that Minnesota has dropped its last two games -- both at home.  But the good news for the T-Wolves is that rested home underdogs -- off back to back home losses -- have covered 79% since 1992 vs. unrested foes off back to back road wins!  Even better:  the Timberwolves are 17-2-1 ATS their last 20 when getting 2+ points off back to back home losses.  Take Minnesota + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Bucks are mired in a long 5-game losing streak -- their longest under coach Mike Budenholzer.  And among those five losses was a 114-109 defeat to this Thunder team in Oklahoma City.  But that should serve as ample motivation for this Bucks team to come out like a "house on fire" tonight.  Notwithstanding its current troubles, Milwaukee is still 42-16 ATS its last 58 at home off back to back losses, including a perfect 4-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite.  And it also falls into a 90-46 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain team that were upset by their opponent in their previous meeting.  Lay it.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Toronto.  The Bucks are currently riding a 4-game losing streak -- their longest in almost three years, a span of 236 games.  This spate of poor play has coincided with the absence of Jrue Holiday, but he will be eligible to play tonight after completing COVID protocols.  We'll lay the points with Milwaukee, as it's 42-15 ATS at home off back to back losses, including 11-2 ATS off an upset loss.  And the Bucks also fall into a 136-85 ATS regular season revenge system of mine which plays on certain home teams with revenge from a double-digit loss to their opponent earlier in the season.  Lay the points with Mike Budenholzer's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over the New York Knicks.  It certainly isn't a surprise that coach Tom Thibodeau is turning around the Knicks.  After all, his track record with Chicago, and as a defensive assistant with Boston, is stellar.  New York is currently riding a 3-game win streak, and is 5-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS its last seven games.  But New York has now been installed as a mid-priced road favorite at Orlando, even though it's 14-15 on the season.  And the last time New York was favored by 4 (or more) points on the road was back on March 28, 2016 -- 349 games ago!  By my math, New York is overvalued tonight, and we'll grab the points with an Orlando club which is also starting to play better basketball after a 1-6 SU/ATS stretch in which it lost six games by 9+ points.  However, in its last three (all on the road), it notched an upset win, 123-112, at Sacramento, and played Golden State tough in a six-point loss, 111-105.  The Magic lost, 109-90, at Phoenix on Sunday, but coach Steve Clifford still remarked that his team's play over the four-game road trip was "the best....that [it's] played."  Tonight, Orlando will be back home, where it's 26-9 ATS vs. losing teams when priced from +2.5 to +6 points.  And NBA road favorites off a win, and 4 ATS wins, overall, have covered just 208 of 480 vs. non-division foes.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans over the Memphis Grizzlies.  These two teams met 10 days ago, and the Pels defeated the Grizzlies, 118-109, as a 1-point home underdog.  Tonight's game is also near-Pk'em, and we'll take New Orleans to snap its current 3-game losing streak.  These latest three losses immediately followed a season-best 4-game win streak.  And the reason New Orleans lost each of these three games is obvious.  They were the three worst defensive games the Pelicans have played this season, as they allowed Chicago, Dallas and Detroit to each shoot over 53% from the floor.  But in New Orleans' 4-game win streak immediately before these losses, it held its opponents to 46, 44, 44 and 41% FG shooting.  After the loss to Detroit, coach Stan Van Gundy lamented his team's defense, and said, "Nobody blocked out.  We didn't compete...as hard as they did."  I expect a much better effort on the part of New Orleans tonight.  And it should have a lot of confidence vs. the Grizzlies, as it's won the last four meetings by 10, 28, 10 and 9 points, and is 6-1 SU/ATS since 2019, with the average win by 12.42 ppg.  Take New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Denver.  The Nuggets come into this game off a blowout win over the defending champion Lakers, while Boston enters off back-to-back losses to Eastern conference-cellar dwellers Washington and Detroit.  The good news for Boston is that .500 (or better) teams off back-to-back upset losses to sub-.333 teams have cashed 62% since 1990 vs. foes off SU/ATS wins.  That bodes well for Brad Stevens' men tonight.  As does the fact that Denver is a horrid 4-24 ATS on the road off a point spread win vs. foes off a double-digit loss.  And it's 5-30 ATS on the road vs. non-division foes, if Denver was off a win by more than 8 points (and 1-19 ATS if the Nuggets also won two games back).  Take Boston to blow out Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets over the Washington Wizards.  The Rockets come into this game on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak, including an upset loss at New York on Saturday.  The Wizards pulled off a big upset yesterday when they won here vs. the Celtics, 104-91, as 6.5-point underdogs.  But off that win, we'll fade Washington tonight, as it's 0-4 SU/ATS its last four off a SU win, and 16-33-1 ATS its last 50 off an upset win.  Even better:  Houston's 49-24-2 ATS on the road vs. a foe off a win, if Houston was off back to back SU/ATS losses.  And NBA home teams, off an upset home win, are a poor 171-244 ATS in the regular season vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the Rockets on Monday evening.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  After a solid stretch of basketball which saw Cleveland win five of six games (and go 4-2 ATS), the team has hit the skids with a 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS mark over its last nine.  I look for it to snap its ATS losing streak tonight, as rested NBA teams off 6 (or more) losses, are 255-176, 59% ATS when getting more than 9 points, including 114-65, 64% ATS off back to back ATS defeats.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over Detroit.  The Pistons pulled off an upset at Boston two nights ago, 108-102, as a 7-point road underdog.  Faithful followers know I love to go against bad teams off wins.  And this would be such an instance.  Indeed, the last time Detroit won two games in a row was more than a year ago (Jan. 18, 2020).  And this will be the 50th game the Pistons have played since then.  Detroit is an awful 3-24 SU and 7-18-2 ATS its last 27 off a win, including 1-8 ATS at home.  Take New Orleans minus the points.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Washington.  Two nights ago, the Celts were upset, 108-102, as a 7-point home favorite by the Detroit Pistons.  They're now on the road in the nation's capital, and will face a Wizards club reeling from back-to-back blowout losses to Toronto (137-115) and New York (109-91).  We'll lay the points with Boston, as it's 25-14 ATS off a loss, and 12-1 ATS its last 13 vs. the Wizards when priced from -1.5 to -8.5 points.  Take the Celtics minus the points.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Utah Jazz.  Both teams are playing good basketball.  The Heat have come around after a slow start, and currently sport a 4-game win streak.  Meanwhile, the Jazz have won 17 of 18, including a win over Milwaukee -- the NBA's best team over the past 2+ years -- last night.  But NBA teams have generally suffered letdowns after defeating Milwaukee over the last two seasons, including 0-10 ATS when priced from +2 to -6.5 points.  Tonight's game sets up well for the Heat, as they'll be playing with a day of rest following Thursday's 101-94 victory at Houston, while the Jazz had to play last night.  And the Heat are 31-15 ATS on the road when rested, and playing an unrested foe (including 10-1 ATS if playing a non-division foe off a win).  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Detroit.  The Pacers were buried last night by Brooklyn, as they trailed 62-30 at the half, en route to a 104-94 defeat.  So, perhaps it's a good thing that the Pacers won't get any time off to think about that performance, and instead get thrown right back into the fire tonight, in Detroit.  The Pistons, coincidentally, also played the Nets in their previous game, but had an opposite result, as they upset the Nets by 11 points, 122-111.  Unfortunately for the Pistons, NBA home dogs have only covered 30% over the last 31 years off an upset win, if they were matched up against an unrested division foe off an upset road loss.  Even worse, the Pistons are 0-9 SU their last nine division contests, and have covered just six of their last 27 division affairs!  Take Indiana.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Minnesota Timberwolves.  The Clippers don't lose very often -- they're 17-8 this season.  And with Kawhi Leonard in the fold, they hardly ever lose twice in a row.  But it happened for the first time this season, this past weekend, when they were upset at home by both Boston and Sacramento.  We'll take the Clippers in this bounce-back situation, as rested road favorites, off back to back upset home losses, are 27-4 SU and 25-5-1 ATS.  Even better:  the Clippers are 37-15 ATS their last 52 off a loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS on the road when laying 4+ points.  And they're 35-18-2 ATS at Minnesota.  Lay the points with the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Milwaukee.  The Bucks are currently riding a 4-game SU/ATS win streak.  But that's not necessarily a good thing when it comes to betting on the Bucks, as they're a dreadful 93-152-7 ATS off 3+ wins.  Even worse:  this will be the Bucks' 3rd game in four nights.  And Eastern Conference teams have covered just 23 of 63 in the high altitude of Denver when playing their 3rd game in four days, if they weren't getting 4+ points.  Denver is 22-4 SU its last 26 home games vs. Eastern Conference foes, including 6-1 ATS if the Nuggets lost their previous game.  Grab the points with the home team.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Sacramento Kings.  This will be the third meeting this season between these Pacific division rivals, and the Clippers easily took the first two by 115-96 and 138-100 scores.  The Clippers had Saturday off following their home upset loss to the Celtics, 119-115, as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday.  Meanwhile, the Kings upset Denver, 119-114, in Sacramento yesterday afternoon for their 6th win in 7 games (and 7th straight ATS win).  The good news for Kawhi Leonard & Co. is that the Clippers have been exceptional over the last several seasons off a straight-up loss, as they're 42-9 SU and 37-14 ATS off a defeat, including a perfect 5-0 ATS vs. double-revenging foes.   Even better:  NBA road underdogs of +8 (or more) points off 5+ ATS wins are a dismal 65-102 ATS in the regular season.  Lay the points with the Clippers on Sunday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Golden State.  These two teams met on Thursday, and it was an embarrassing 31-point loss for the homestanding Mavericks.  But Dallas will get a 2nd bite at the apple tonight, and we'll play on the Mavericks in this rematch.  For technical support, consider that home teams have cashed 70.7% in the regular season when playing with revenge from a home upset loss by more than 20 points.  Meanwhile, the Warriors have covered just eight of 25 off an upset win, when matched up against an opponent off a SU loss.  Lay the points with Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the Sacramento Kings.  Both of these teams are playing their best basketball of the season.  Denver has won six of its last eight games SU/ATS (though it was blown out by the Lakers, 114-93, two nights ago), while Sacramento has gone 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS its last six.  These two teams met here on December 29, and the Nuggets were upended by the Kings, 125-115.  And that was the 2nd straight loss by the Nuggets to the Kings this season.  We'll take Denver to avenge that defeat as it's 36-18 ATS when playing with double-revenge, including 7-0 ATS if the Nuggets lost by 15+ points its previous game, and 23-8 ATS if its opponent was off a win.  Even better:  the Kings are a wallet-busting 16-37 ATS at home off a SU/ATS win vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss.  Take Denver to crush the Kings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Washington.  These two Southeast division rivals met last night, here in South Florida, and the Wizards came away with an upset win, 103-100, as a 9-point road underdog.  The price is significantly lower for tonight's game, primarily because Russell Westbrook will be on the floor for the Wizards this evening after not playing on Wednesday, while the Heat's Avery Bradley will be sidelined with a calf injury.  We'll lay the points with Miami, as it's 43-20 ATS off three point spread defeats, as well as a very strong 50-20 ATS off back to back losses, when matched up against an opponent off a straight-up win.  Meanwhile, the Wizards are a wallet-busting 34-63 ATS off an upset road win.  Lay the points with the Heat.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over the Phoenix Suns.  These two teams met in Phoenix on Dec. 29, and the Suns blew out New Orleans by 25 points, 111-86, as a 2-point home favorite.  Tonight's game is in New Orleans, and we'll take the Pelicans as a home underdog to avenge that blowout loss.  Indeed, the Suns are a horrible 46-73-4 ATS when playing a revenge-minded foe they defeated by 20+ points earlier in the season, including 6-23-1 ATS on the road if their opponent was off back to back losses, while New Orleans has gone 10-0-1 ATS at home when playing with revenge from a 25-point loss.  And the Pelicans are also 14-8 ATS in the last 22 meetings with the Suns.  Finally, the Pelicans fall into a 93-36 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back SU/ATS losses vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take New Orleans + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies played last night in San Antonio, and completed a 2-game sweep of the Spurs with 133-102 blowout win.  And that followed a 129-112 victory over San Antonio on Saturday.  But off those two huge upset wins, we'll fade the unrested Grizzlies in Indianapolis tonight.  Indeed, teams off back-to-back upset wins, in which they scored 120+ points, have gone 0-14-1 ATS if they won their previous game by double-digits, and weren't favored by 10+ points in their current game.  Even better:  the Pacers are off back-to-back upset losses to Philly and Charlotte.  But Indiana is an awesome 69-33 ATS off back to back ATS losses, if they were favored by less than 14 points at home, and matched up against an opponent off a win.  Lay the points with Indiana.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks over Phoenix.  The Mavs are currently on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak following a six-point loss to these Suns two nights ago.  But Dallas will get a 2nd bite at the apple this evening, and we'll lay the points with the revenge-minded Mavs.  Dallas is a super 24-9 ATS off a loss, when playing with revenge from a home loss against an opponent off a SU win.  And Phoenix is an awful 11-22 ATS when off an upset road win, and not getting double digits.  And it's 21-32 ATS vs. revenge-minded losing teams.  Finally, Dallas falls into 232-119 and 83-52 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Utah.  The Jazz have won and covered 11 straight, including a 109-105 win over the Nuggets when these two teams met in Salt Lake City two weeks ago.  Today's game is in Denver, and we'll take the homestanding Nuggets to avenge that loss.  Indeed, NBA teams off 5 straight ATS wins are a soft 47-83 ATS when not favored by 3+ points, if their opponent lost and failed to cover by more than 9 points in its previous game.  With the Nuggets in off a double-digit SU/ATS loss to the Spurs, 119-109, on Friday, and also 29-19 ATS their last 48 when playing with revenge, we'll grab the points with the home dog today.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Sacramento.  The Kings won last night against Toronto, as an underdog.  And that was their 2nd straight upset win, as they won at Orlando on Wednesday.  Sacramento now will play a Miami team which should be in an ornery mood following five straight losses.  But all five of those games were vs. talented opposition (Raptors, Nuggets, Clippers, Nets (twice)).  The Heat will no doubt relish tonight's game against the 8-10 Kings.  And Miami is 50-19 ATS off back to back losses when playing an opponent off a SU win.  And it's 43-18 ATS on a 3-game point spread losing streak.  Take Miami minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, on ESPN-TV, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over Utah.  The Jazz blew out the Mavs, 116-104, on Wednesday night, but we'll come right back with Dallas in this rematch.  The Jazz have now won and covered 10 straight.  But NBA home teams on 10-game ATS win streaks have cashed just 1 of 15 if they covered by 5+ points in their previous game.  And Dallas is a solid 112-66 ATS off a loss, if its opponent is off a win, including 20-10 ATS as a road underdog with revenge.  Take the Mavericks + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Thunder return home off back to back upset wins over the Trail Blazers and Suns, and will welcome the Nets, who they defeated earlier this month in Brooklyn, 129-116.  We'll go against OKC, and take the revenge-minded Nets, as underdogs have covered just 97 of 241 off back to back upset wins, if they were playing a non-division foe who it defeated earlier in the season.  Additionally, the Nets are a super 42-19 ATS on the road when playing with revenge.  Take Brooklyn minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  Last night, Los Angeles went into Miami, and upset the Heat, 109-105, as a 5-point underdog.  And that was L.A.'s eighth win in its last nine games.  But off that win, we will fade the Clippers in this game, as they're 0-11 ATS as an underdog (or PK) in non-division games, if they pulled off an upset win in their previous game.  Take Orlando.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over Utah.  The Jazz have ripped off 9 straight wins (and covers), and now welcome the Mavericks for a 2-game series in Salt Lake City.  The Mavericks are an awesome 88-48 ATS off a SU/ATS loss when they're playing an opponent off a win, including a terrific 35-11 ATS when Dallas owned a losing record, and its opponent had a winning record.  Even better:  Utah falls into a negative 13-42 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams on extended win streaks.  Take Dallas to upset the Jazz tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards over the Houston Rockets.  In their previous two games, the Rockets pulled upsets on the road, as they defeated Detroit, 103-102, as a 3-point dog, and Dallas, 133-108, as a 7-point dog.  Houston's now back home to take on the Wizards, who lost by 20 at San Antonio on Sunday.  We'll take Washington, as .400 (or worse) teams (like Houston) have covered just 29.6% since 1990 off back to back upset road wins, if they were matched up against an opponent off a double-digit loss.  Take the Wizards.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Cleveland.  The Cavaliers have won their last three games, and all three were upset wins, including 147-135 and 125-113 victories over the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday and Friday.  Cleveland will now take to the road, and play a Celtics team looking to snap a 3-game losing streak.  We'll go against Cleveland, as teams off back to back upset wins, in which they scored 120+ points in those two triumphs, are 2-19 ATS their last 21.  Even worse for Cleveland:  winning teams are 0-9-1 ATS as underdogs, if the were off 3+ upset wins, and were matched up against a .500 (or better) foe.  Take the Celtics minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over Utah.  The Jazz own the longest win streak in the league this season -- currently at 7 games.  And they've also covered the spread in each of those seven victories.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on Utah tonight against a Warriors team off a 15-point upset loss to the Knicks on Thursday.  But teams on a 5-game (or better) ATS win streak have only covered 38% over the last 31 years vs. foes off 15-point (or worse) upset losses.  That bodes well for Steve Kerr's men tonight.  As does the fact that Golden State is an awesome 16-0 ATS as a road underdog priced from +4.5 to +8.5, if it lost its previous game, and it was matched up against a winning opponent which won its previous game.  Take Golden State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over the New York Knicks.  Last night, Tom Thibodeau's troops pulled off their 3rd straight upset, as they whipped the Warriors, 119-104, as 5-point road underdogs.  They're now installed as an underdog against the Sacramento Kings, who had last night off after dropping their 4th straight game on Wednesday, 115-96, vs. the Clippers.  Unfortunately for the Knicks, teams off 3 straight upset wins are a poor 3-14 ATS their last 17 when not favored by more than 3 points.  Even better:  unrested teams off an upset win, and 3 ATS wins, overall, have cashed just 38% on the road since 1990 vs. foes off 3 ATS losses.  Take Sacramento to blow out New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.