Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-02-18 | Cardinals +14.5 v. Packers | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 61 h 25 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over Green Bay. The Packers, at 4-6-1, have their proverbial backs against the wall, as they will need to win their last five games of the season if they are to have a chance at the post-season. Arizona, of course, doesn't have that problem, as it is 2-9, and won't be playing in January. The problem for Green Bay has been its defense. Since shutting out the woeful Bills in Week 4, the Packers have given up 31, 30, 29, 31, 12, 27 and 24 points, for an average of 26.3 ppg over their last seven. For the season, their number is not much better, at 24.3. It's dangerous to lay a lot of points with bad defensive clubs, no matter the opposition. Indeed, since 1980, favorites of -8 or more points, with a defensive ppg. average of 23.67, have gone 39-80 ATS at Game 6 forward. Arizona's 10-1 ATS its last 11 off back to back losses, if it owned a losing record. Take the points with the Cardinals. |
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12-02-18 | Rams v. Lions +11 | Top | 30-16 | Loss | -128 | 60 h 57 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams have scored 54, 36 and 35 points in their three previous games. In contrast, the Lions have scored just 16, 20 and 22 points in their last three games — a total of 58 points, or 67 points less than the Rams’ aggregate total of 125 points. Unfortunately for Los Angeles, NFL teams that scored 123 or more points over their three previous games have gone 0-9 ATS on the road since 2001 vs. opponents off a loss. Even better: Detroit's been installed as a double-digit home underdog. And home dogs of +10 or more points have gone 70-34 ATS since 1982 vs. opponents off a home win. Take the Lions + the points. NFL Shocker of the Month! |
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12-02-18 | Bills v. Dolphins -3.5 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 59 h 45 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins minus the points over Buffalo. The Dolphins are off back to back SU road losses to Green Bay and Indianapolis. But they were big underdogs (+9 vs. Indy; +11.5 vs. GB) in those two road games. That's not the case here, as Miami is favored at home. Meanwhile, Buffalo enters off back to back upset wins at the New York Jets, and at home vs. Jacksonville. But before one congratulates the Bills for those two wins, it's worth noting that the Jets are on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak, while Jacksonville has lost its last 7 games! Since 1980, NFL home favorites of -3 or more points, off back to back road losses, have covered 72% vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins. This season, the Dolphins 5-6 SU and 6-5 ATS. But all six of Miami's losses came when they were an underdog of +3 or more points. When Miami hasn't been an underdog of 3+ points, then it's 3-0 SU/ATS this season, and 10-3-2, 77% ATS its last 15. Take the Dolphins to blow out Buffalo. NFL Division Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-02-18 | Panthers v. Bucs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 58 h 11 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Tampa Bay/Carolina game. Tampa Bay has played 12 of its last 16 home games 'under' the total, including last week's 27-9 victory over San Francisco. And since 1980, teams that held their previous opponent to less than 10 points have gone 'under' the total 71% of the time when the line was greater than 54 points. Even better: the Panthers have gone 'under' 57-33 when they've been favored by more than 3 points, including 26-9 when playing a division rival. Finally, the 'under' falls into 162-97 and 55-24 Totals Systems of mine. This will be a relatively low-scoring game. Take the 'under.' NFL Total of the Week! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-02-18 | Ravens v. Falcons -125 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -125 | 57 h 17 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Baltimore. The Falcons are 4-7, and off three straight losses, while Baltimore enters this game off back to back wins. Of course, their competition had much to do with the results. Atlanta's last two games were against the Saints and Cowboys, among the league's hottest teams. In contrast, Baltimore's two wins were vs. the Raiders and the injury-riddled Bengals. We'll lay the points with Atlanta, as NFL home teams off 3+ losses have gone 92-53 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes off a double-digit win, if that foe also won two games back. Take Atlanta. NFL Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-01-18 | California v. St. Mary's -11.5 | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the St Mary's Gaels minus the points over California. The Gaels are on a 4-game losing streak, including back to back home losses as favorites of -7 and -9 points. I love the Gaels to snap their slide tonight, as NCAA home teams have cashed 73% in non conference games as favorites of -5 (or more) points, off back to back losses where they were favored by more than 4 points. Lay the double-digits with St. Mary's. |
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12-01-18 | Northwestern +14.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 3 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats + the points over Ohio State. Last week, the Buckeyes rolled over their rival, Michigan, with a 62-39 upset win. But off that huge upset win, we'll fade Ohio State on Saturday, as the Buckeyes fall into a negative system which is 0-21 ATS. What we want to do is play against any 8-point (or greater) favorite off an upset win, if they won that game by more than 10 points, and are now matched up against a .666 (or better) foe. Ohio State also falls into negative 27-66, 10-46 and 6-40 ATS systems. Take Northwestern + the points. NCAA Title Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-01-18 | Florida International v. Arkansas -16 | Top | 89-121 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Florida International. The Razorbacks have long been one of the best point spread-covering teams at home, including 59-42 ATS vs. non-conference foes, and 72-44 ATS on Saturdays. Florida International, meanwhile, has been poor vs. non-conference foes, including 4-16, 20% ATS as dogs of more than 11 if their foe was off an 11-point (or greater) win. This season, Arkansas is 4-1 ATS, and its only point spread defeat came when Montana State sank a 3-pointer to with 21 seconds left to end that game's scoring to cover by two points. Otherwise, it would be 5-0 ATS this season. Finally, the Razorbacks fall into a great 134-62 ATS system of mine which plays on certain favorites vs. foes off a SU win. I look for Arkansas to move its point spread record to 5-1 with a blowout win tonight. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-01-18 | Nets v. Wizards -5 | Top | 88-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Brooklyn. The Wizards have started to turn the corner, somewhat, from their disastrous 2-9 SU/ATS start, as they've gone 6-5 SU/ATS since November 10. But you wouldn't know it from their last two games. The Wizards were blown out by 21 in New Orleans, and by 25 last night at Philly. However, those two games were on the road. Washington's won and covered its last three home games. And each was against very good teams (Rockets, Clippers, Pelicans). So, I look for Washington to rebound tonight against a Brooklyn team which also played last night, but which had to extend itself for an additional two overtime periods vs. Memphis. Moreover, the Wizards play with revenge from a loss suffered to these Nets just 15 days ago, and fall into a super Revenge system of mine. Take Washington. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-01-18 | Maple Leafs v. Wild -120 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild over Toronto. The Wild have dropped their last 2 games. But I love them to bounce back against Toronto tonight. The Wild have actually excelled vs. the league's best teams at home, as they're 12-3 vs. foes that have a scoring margin of +0.5 goals (or more) per game. Even better, Toronto comes into this road game off 3 home wins, vs. Philly (6-0), Boston (4-2) and San Jose (5-3). Unfortunately for the Leafs, they're an awful 1-9 on the road off a win by 2+ goals, and 3-16 on the road off back to back home wins by 2+ goals. Finally, Minnesota is a spectacular 17-1 off back to back losses, while Toronto is a poor 71-105 on a 3-game (or better) unbeaten streak. Take Minnesota. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-01-18 | Northern Colorado v. Wyoming +1 | Top | 85-80 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys over Northern Colorado. Last season, the Bears went into Laramie, and upset Wyoming, 91-84, as a 9-point underdog. But that loss has triggered a great 70-31 ATS revenge system of mine. Also, the Cowboys are 29-11-1 ATS off a straight-up loss when not laying double-digits. Take Wyoming to blow out Northern Colorado. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-01-18 | UAB +1.5 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 62 h 45 m | Show |
At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the UAB Blazers + the points over Middle Tennessee State. The Blazers and Blue Raiders actually met last week (also here in Murfreesboro), and the Blue Raiders won, 27-3, as a 3-point home underdog. That was also the 2nd straight defeat suffered by UAB, as it lost out of conference to Texas A&M two weeks ago. I look for UAB to avenge last week's loss, as winning teams have cashed 61% the last 39 years off 21-point (or worse) SU/ATS losses, if they're on the road against a Conference foe off a SU/ATS win. And if our team is off back to back SU/ATS losses, then our 61% system zooms to 77%. Take UAB. NCAA Payback Payday! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-01-18 | Gonzaga v. Creighton +6.5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Blue Jays + the points over Gonzaga. The Gonzaga Bulldogs upset then-No. 1 Duke, 89-87, 10 days ago, in Maui, to ascend to the #1 ranking. But the Blue Jays are in a great position to hand the Bulldogs their first loss of the season. Creighton's on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak, and also plays with revenge from a 17-point loss suffered at Gonzaga last season. I love playing on great teams with revenge and strong home courts, and Creighton meets the criteria for all three, as they're 6-1 this season, and have won 35 of their last 42 home games (23-15 ATS). Take the Blue Jays. |
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12-01-18 | Sharks -165 v. Senators | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the San Jose Sharks over the Ottawa Senators. The Sharks are in the midst of a very tough road trip and probably can't wait to get back to the Bay Area. Sure, they've lost all three away from home by a combined 14-5, but those three have come against the likes of the red-hot Sabres, Golden Knights, and Maple Leafs. So they will step down in class in this Saturday matinee in Ottawa. The Senators have won two in a row over the Flyers (road) and Rangers (home) but they've paid a bit of a price with some injuries. And prior to those two wins, the Sens had lost four in a row by a combined score of 23-15. You can tell from those numbers what Ottawa's biggest problem this season has been. With a 4.12 goals-against-average, the Sens sport the worst defensive numbers in the league (and they're the only team with a GAA of more than 4.0). That porous defense has allowed an NHL-high 37.8 shots-on-goal per game. Ottawa shut-out the Rangers 3-0 last time, however the Sens are 3-11 in their last 14 home games after a win by three or more goals. Take the Sharks. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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11-30-18 | Northern Illinois +3.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 30-29 | Win | 100 | 44 h 13 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Buffalo. The Bulls are 10-2 this season, while the Huskies are 7-5. But one team Buffalo has not been able to beat, of late, has been Northern Illinois. Indeed, the Huskies have won the last 11 meetings, including all 10 since the Bulls joined the MAC in 1999. (Buffalo did defeat the Huskies once, back in 1968). Even worse for the Bulls: in the MAC Conference Championship games, teams with a win percentage greater than .800 have gone 1-10 ATS vs. foes with a win percentage of .800 (or less). Finally, Northern Illinois enters this game off back to back upset losses, including a 28-21 defeat at Western Michigan 10 days ago. But NCAA teams off road upset losses have cashed 64% in Conference Title games. Take Northern Illinois + the points. NCAA Football Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-29-18 | Saints v. Cowboys +8 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over New Orleans. The Saints have won their last 10 games. Even more improbably, they've covered the point spread in their last nine. Even with 9 ATS wins in a row, they're far away from the 14 straight games that the Patriots covered up until getting blown out by the Bears in the Super Bowl 33 seasons ago. Tonight, they'll face the Cowboys. And while Dallas isn't on a 9-game SU/ATS win streak, it is playing well, and is on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak. And home underdogs (or PK) on a 3-game (or better) SU/ATS win streak are 49-33-1 ATS since 1980. Meanwhile, road favorites (or PK) on a 5-game (or better) win streak are 12-22 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up win. The Saints also fall into negative 24-69, 4-17 and 38-68 ATS systems based on its recent results. Take Dallas + the points. NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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11-29-18 | Sabres v. Lightning -165 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Buffalo Sabres. The Sabres won another 3-2 OT game on Monday, this time against the San Jose Sharks. It's the 10th win in a row for the Sabres, and the 9th out of 10 decided by one goal -- and 7th outside of regulation time. You could say it's better to be lucky than good, or you could say that the Sabres have just been that much better than each of their competition over that span. But tonight's test in Tampa against arguably the most talented team in the Conference will be perhaps their toughest since the streak began. The Bolts have averaged four goals per game at Amalie Arena -- tops in the East -- while their 2.64 GAA here has resulted in a 1.36 home/road goal differential -- one of the best in the league. Tampa had a bit of bad luck in its last game, falling to the Ducks on Monday by a 3-1 score despite out-shooting them by a lopsided 35-22 margin. That was the Bolts' first loss in their last four games and only their second in their last seven. The Sabres are 4-13 in the last 17 meetings and 2-7 in the last nine in Tampa. Take the Lightning. NHL Game of the Week. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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11-28-18 | Cal-Irvine v. St. Mary's -6.5 | Top | 80-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the St Mary's Gaels minus the points over Cal Irvine. Randy Bennett's Gaels come into this home game off a rare home loss, 74-68, to Harvard. But the Gaels are an awesome 65-46-2 ATS at home vs. non-conference foes, including 9-0 ATS their last nine off an upset loss, if the Gaels were favored by 6 or more points in the current game. Take St. Mary's. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-28-18 | Portland v. Colorado -15.5 | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over Portland. The Pilots were blown out by Texas State, 91-68, as a 2-point home underdog on Saturday. But that's been "par for the course" for Portland as it's an awful 13-34-1 ATS as underdogs of 19.5 or less points vs. Non-Conference foes (and 2-16 ATS when priced from +9.5 to +19.5). Colorado routed Air Force, 93-56, and falls into a 101-48 ATS system of mine based on that victory. Take the Buffaloes. |
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11-28-18 | Virginia v. Maryland +3.5 | Top | 76-71 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins + the points over Virginia. The Cavaliers were my preseason pick (at 22-1 odds) to win the College Basketball championship this season. But this is a great spot to fade Virginia and take the home underdog Terrapins. Maryland enters off a momentum-building, 37-point blowout win over Marshall (as a 9-point favorite). And the Terrapins are a terrific 60% ATS at home off wins by 15+ points over the last 29 seasons, including 7-1 ATS as a home underdog! Take the Terps. |
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11-27-18 | Raptors v. Grizzlies +5.5 | Top | 122-114 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over Toronto. The Raptors are 17-4 and are outscoring their foes by 8.95 ppg. But Memphis has excelled over the years vs. foes with an average margin of 6.10 (or better). Indeed, in the regular season vs. such teams, Memphis is a superb 56-21 ATS when the Grizzlies entered with a winning record, and their opponent was off a straight-up win. And, although, there's certainly nothing wrong with 56-21, we can improve our mark to 47-11 ATS by not going against teams playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season (which Toronto is not). The Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS their last 12 home games, and 21-9 ATS their last 30 as home dogs vs. an Eastern Conference foe. Take Memphis. NBA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-27-18 | Sharks -115 v. Sabres | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Jose Sharks over the Buffalo Sabres. The Sabres beat Detroit on Saturday to extend their winning streak to nine games, which is the longest the franchise has enjoyed since the 2006-2007 season. But if ever there was a tenuous streak, it's likely this one. For one thing, eight of the nine victories have been by a single goal, and six have required OT or shootout. Second, five of the nine wins have come against teams with a losing record. Finally, the Sabres have been out-shot in six of the nine victories and the total shots-on-goal during the streak favor their opponents by a 306-284 margin. Now the Sharks come to town for the second meeting of these two in a little over a month. On October 18, San Jose handled Buffalo at home, 5-1, while out-shooting the Sabres by 39-25. With the victory, the Sharks have now won the last four meetings going back to February 2007. Despite their recent success, the Sabres don't do well at home against bad road teams as they are 5-16 in their last 21 here vs. teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Take the Sharks. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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11-26-18 | Bucks v. Hornets +5 | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets + the points over Milwaukee. These two teams actually met on Opening Night, and the Bucks eked out a 1-point victory, 113-112, here in Charlotte. However, Charlotte covered the 3-point spread. Tonight, they're getting more than that. And we will grab the points, as Charlotte is 6-3 SU and 6-3 ATS at home this season. Even better: none of its three home losses has come by more than 4 points. Last night, the Hornets suffered an embarrassing 124-123 defeat at the hands of the league's worst team, the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta had lost its previous nine games. But NBA teams upset by opponents on a 7-game (or worse) losing streak, when they were favored by 6+ points, generally bounce back in their next game, and have covered 92 of 154. Take Charlotte as a home dog tonight. NBA Payback Payday! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-26-18 | Wofford v. South Carolina -7.5 | Top | 81-61 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks minus the points over Wofford. The Gamecocks snapped their four-game ATS losing streak with a 90-55 win over George Washington. And that blowout win has triggered a very good 'momentum' system of mine which has cashed 63% over the last 29 years. The Terriers are 4-2, but this will be just Wofford's second road game vs. a Division 1 school. It failed to cover its first one vs. the Sooners, back on November 18. And it's a poor 8-20 ATS its last 28 road games vs. teams from major and mid-major Conferences on the regular Vegas rotation (as opposed to schools on the Added board). Meanwhile, South Carolina is a solid 26-10 ATS as favorites of -6 (or more) points vs. teams from minor conferences NOT in Vegas' regular rotation, including 12-1 ATS vs. foes that had a .500 (or better) record. Take South Carolina. NCAA Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-25-18 | Clippers v. Blazers -4.5 | Top | 104-100 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Los Angeles. The Clippers are 12-6 this season, but all of their profit has been at home, where they are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS. On the road, the Clippers are a pedestrian 4-5 SU/ATS. Likewise, the Blazers are 7-2 SU/ATS at home, but just 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS on the road. So, it wasn't much of a surprise when the Trail Blazers ended their 6-game road trip with back to back blowout losses at Milwaukee (143-100) and Golden State (125-97). But .630 (or better) home favorites are 95-55 ATS off back to back losses by more than 8 points. Coincidentally, this angle also applied to the Warriors in their 125-97 win over Portland this past Friday, as Golden State entered that game off double-digit losses to the Spurs and Thunder. I look for Portland to bounce back this evening. Take the Trail Blazers. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-25-18 | Ducks v. Predators -220 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Nashville Predators over the Anaheim Ducks. After winning their first eight road games of the season on their way to the best record in the league, the Predators' road dominance has come to a screeching halt. Nashville has now lost its last four away from Bridgestone Arena, including Friday's blow-out loss in St. Louis, 6-2. Should the Preds be worried? Probably not. If this were to happen in March, it could be a major concern heading into the post-season. But the Predators have plenty of time to figure out their road woes and make the proper adjustments. That's not a problem for tonight, of course, as the Preds are back home to face a 10-14 Anaheim team. D-man Hampus Lindholm is the latest to join the long list of the Ducks' wounded as his lower body injury will keep him out of action for an undetermined amount of time. In this series, the host is 4-1 in the last five meetings. In addition, the Ducks are 1-6 in the last seven meetings in Nashville. Take the Predators. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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11-25-18 | Knicks v. Grizzlies -8.5 | Top | 103-98 | Loss | -104 | 1 h 42 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the New York Knicks. The Knicks just pulled off back to back upsets. They earned the biggest upset yet this season when they knocked off Boston, as a 14.5-point underdog. Then they followed that up with a 114-109 win over New Orleans. But New York likely would have lost that game vs. the Pelicans had Anthony Davis not gotten injured in that game's 3rd quarter, and had been able to finish. Still, New York rides into Memphis on a 2-game win streak. But NBA teams off back to back upset wins as 8+ point underdogs have cashed just 36% since 1990. Take Memphis minus the points. NBA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-25-18 | Steelers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Pittsburgh. The Steelers snatched victory from the jaws of defeat last week, in Jacksonville. But the Jags have been in a death spiral, with six straight losses. Denver, on the other hand, comes into this game off an upset win over the LA Chargers, and have covered four of their last five. Denver's also 31-17-3 ATS as a home underdog (or PK), including 24-11-1 ATS vs. non-division foes. Finally, teams (like Pittsburgh) on a 6-game (or better) win streak, have been poor on the road as favorites vs. non-division foes, going 33-54 ATS since 1980. Take the Broncos. AFC Conference Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-24-18 | Celtics v. Mavs +2.5 | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over Boston. The Mavericks have been awesome over the last couple of seasons at home vs. opponents off a win, as they're 33-16-1 ATS their last 50 in this situation. The Celtics, on the other hand, have been dreadful on the road lately. Admittedly, Boston did win by 18 on the road last night in Atlanta. But the Hawks are the league's worst team, with a 3-16 (.157) record. And, speaking of 3-16, the Celtics are an awful 3-16 ATS their last 19 road games vs. opponents with a .200 (or better) win percentage. Take Dallas. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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11-24-18 | Nuggets v. Thunder -5 | Top | 105-98 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the OKC Thunder minus the points over Denver. The Nuggets had to play last night, at home, and then travel to take on the Thunder tonight. Unfortunately, Denver has covered just 76 of 179 road games off a home game the previous night. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is an awesome 24-9 at home vs. opponents that played a home game the previous night, including 10-0 ATS vs. .600 (or better) opponents off a win. Take Oklahoma City. |
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11-24-18 | Notre Dame v. USC +12 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans + the points over Notre Dame. The Trojans are off back to back SU/ATS losses, but they're an incredible 8-0 ATS off a SU/ATS loss, if they also lost 2 games back. Grab the points with the Trojans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-24-18 | Rockets -10 v. Cavs | Top | 108-117 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on Houston minus the points over Cleveland. The Cavaliers stunned the 76ers as a 13-point underdog last night. But that was just their 3rd win of the season. And bad teams rarely win back to back games. Indeed, double-digit home underdogs have cashed just 33% since 1995 off wins as double-digit dogs. Take Houston. |
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11-24-18 | North Texas -24.5 v. UTSA | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over Texas San Antonio. The Roadrunners have scored a sum total of 10 points over their last three games. Unfortunately for the Roadrunners, home underdogs have cashed just 38 of 116 games over the past 24 years if they didn't score more than 23 points over their three previous games (and just 1 of 13 if they didn't score more than 10). Lay the big number with North Texas. |
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11-24-18 | Kansas State v. Iowa State -12 | Top | 38-42 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over Kansas State. This is a major revenge spot for Iowa State, which has lost the last 10 meetings to KSU. And the Cyclones fall into a 64-34 ATS revenge angle of mine which plays on certain big favorites with revenge. Additionally, the Cyclones are 7-1 ATS off a road loss, while K-State is a poor 1-5 ATS off an upset win over a Big 12 Conference rival. Lay the points. |
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11-24-18 | Flyers v. Maple Leafs -155 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Philadelphia Flyers. We had a big play on the Flyers yesterday, and they got the first shutout performance of the season from their goalie Calvin Pickard, in a 4-0 home win against the Rangers. But it was from a netminder who had been one of the worst in the league, with a GAA over 4.00 and a saves percentage around .850. Anyway, one shutout does not make a season, so we will have to see some consistent play from Pickard and the Flyers' defense before declaring that there has been a turnaround. Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs' climb to the top of the NHL ladder took a little detour in their last game. After four straight wins, the Leafs went into Raleigh and Columbus in their last two where they proceeded to get thumped pretty good. But they're back home tonight where they've won three straight vs. some pretty good teams -- Columbus, New Jersey, and Vegas. Being the home team in this series is pretty important lately as the hosts have won five of the last six meetings between the Leafs and Flyers. And Toronto is also 35-17 in its last 52 games here at Scotiabank Arena. Take the Leafs. |
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11-24-18 | Bruins v. Canadiens -120 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Montreal Canadiens over Boston If the season ended today, these two teams would take the last two spots in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. And that would be quite an accomplishment for Montreal, which comes in off a year in which it won just 29 of 82 games. Last season, Montreal's failings were largely on offense. The Canadiens were a horrid offensive team, and ranked next-to-last, with a 2.5 goals per game average. This year, though, it's a different story, as the Canadiens are scoring 3.2 goals per game, and rank among the better NHL teams in that category. And that is one of the most important factors in the Canadiens' success in the early going. These two rivals met four weeks ago in Boston, and the Canadiens upset Boston, 3-0, behind a 33-saves performance by Carey Price. Boston, though, has been poor in the revenge role, as it's 27-32, minus 21 games on the money line, when playing with revenge. Even worse for Boston: it's underperformed vs. NHL teams that average 3.0 (or more) goals per game, as it's 34-44, minus 21 games on the money line. Take Montreal. |
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11-24-18 | Sabres v. Red Wings -115 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Red Wings over Buffalo. Both of these teams are playing very well. The Sabres have won eight straight games, and nine of their last 10. But Buffalo's streak shouldn't overshadow what the Red Wings are doing. Detroit has won nine of its last 12 games, including six of its last seven here, at home. And the Wings have won 31 of the last 41 games (+17 games on the money line) vs. Buffalo. Both teams played last night, with the Sabres using their #1 netminder, Carter Hutton, and Detroit employing its #2 netminder, Jonathan Bernier. Tonight, it should be Detroit's #1 goalie, Jimmy Howard, vs. Buffalo's #2 goalie, Linus Ullmark, so that will be in the Red Wings' favor. I look for Detroit to snap Buffalo's win streak this evening. Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-24-18 | Illinois +16.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini + the points over Northwestern. Last week, Illinois was thoroughly embarrassed by Iowa, in a 63-0 beatdown. But off that whitewash, I look for Illinois to bounce back in their final game of the season. Indeed, since 1998, teams that failed to cover the point spread by 35+ points in their penultimate game of the season, have rebounded to cash 68% in their final game. Take Illinois. Big 10 Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-24-18 | Pittsburgh v. Miami-FL -5 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 2 h 58 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Pittsburgh. The Hurricanes were 10-0 last season, and ranked #2 in the country, when they went into Pittsburgh last season. The Panthers roiled Miami's season with a 24-14 upset win. The 'Canes then proceeded to lose their next two games, as well, including the ACC Title game to Clemson, and the Orange Bowl vs. Wisconsin. This season, it's Pittsburgh which has ACC Championship hopes, as the Panthers will play Clemson in the ACC Title game next week. So, even if Miami wins today, the Panthers can still win the Conference next week. Regardless, I love Miami in this revenge match, as the 'Canes fall into a 53-27 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams that were winning clubs the previous season. Even worse for Pitt: It's covered its last six games, and falls into a 51-23 ATS "Last Road Game" system of mine which goes against certain teams off ATS wins. Lay the points with Miami. NCAA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-24-18 | Georgia Southern v. Georgia State +10.5 | Top | 35-14 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers + the points over the Georgia Southern Eagles. The Panthers have lost their last six games SU and their last five games ATS. But Georgia State falls into a 99-58 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off SU/ATS losses vs. foes off SU/ATS wins. Moreover, teams on a 5-game (or worse) point spread losing streak have gone 42-13 their last 55 vs. opponents on a point spread win streak (and home teams have gone 24-5 ATS their last 29 in this situation)! Take the Panthers + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-24-18 | Marist v. Buffalo -17 | Top | 49-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points over Marist. The Bulls are ranked #22 in the country, with a 4-0 SU record and a 3-0 ATS mark. Not to be outdone, Marist is now 4-0 ATS (though 1-3 straight-up) after covering the 7.5-point spread in a 64-60 loss at Stephen F. Austin. So, something will have to give today, with both teams entering the game with 100% ATS records. We will fade Marist, which is an awful 12-34-2 ATS as underdogs of more than 8 points off a point spread win. Meanwhile, Buffalo is a solid 21-7 ATS its last 28 as a favorite of more than 10 points, including a perfect 13-0 ATS if the Bulls won their two previous games. Lay the points with Buffalo. Perfect 10 Club Play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-24-18 | Detroit v. Eastern Michigan -10 | Top | 78-74 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles minus the points over Detroit. Eastern Michigan was blown out on the road, 63-36, by Rutgers, as a 7-point underdog, on Monday. But the good news for the Eagles is that they are back home this afternoon. And teams playing at home, or on a neutral court, have cashed 61% the past 29 years off a 23-point (or worse) defeat in which they scored 36 or less points. Take Eastern Michigan minus the points this afternoon. Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-23-18 | Pelicans -7 v. Knicks | Top | 109-114 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over the New York Knicks. New York pulled off the biggest upset yet this season when it won, 117-109, as a 14.5-point dog on Wednesday. And that was New York's second straight ATS win. Unfortunately for the Knicks, NBA teams off upset wins as dogs of more than 14 points, and also an ATS win two games back, have cashed their next game just 33% of the time. Take New Orleans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-23-18 | South Alabama v. Texas A&M -13 | Top | 62-74 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies minus the points over South Alabama. The Aggies have dropped four straight games. But three of those losses were on the road to #3-ranked Gonzaga (which just beat #1-ranked Duke), or at neutral sites against quality clubs from Power Conferences like Washington and Minnesota. This evening, then, will represent a major step-down in class for Texas A&M, and it should be able to re-enter the win column, here at home. The Aggies have done really well vs. non conference foes when playing at home (or on a neutral court) off a loss. And if Texas A&M was favored, or getting less than 9 points, then they've cashed 26 of 31 since Dec. 21, 2001. The Aggies also fall into 82-48 and 56-19 ATS systems of mine which play on certain favorites of more than 8 points off a defeat. Take the Aggies. NCAA Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-23-18 | Rockets v. Pistons +4.5 | Top | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Houston. These two teams met on Tuesday in Houston, and the Rockets came away with a 2-point victory. Since 1990, in regular season home-and-home (i.e., "back-to-back") meetings between winning teams, underdogs have cashed 62.1% if they lost the first of the 2-game set. Take Detroit. |
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11-23-18 | Central Florida v. South Florida +14.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points over Central Florida. The Knights have won their last 23 games, dating back to last season, while South Florida has dropped four straight (following a 7-0 start). I love the Bulls as a two touchdown underdog on Friday, as underdogs of +19 or less points have cashed 67.5% since 1980 in their final home game of the season, if they were playing a conference foe off back to back wins. Take the Bulls as the home dog. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-23-18 | Grizzlies v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the LA Clippers minus the points over Memphis. The Grizzlies have won their last five games -- both straight-up and ATS. But this game will likely end the win streak. The Clippers are a super 7-1 at home this season, including 7-0 after their loss to Denver on Opening Night. And road underdogs of more than 2 points, off 5+ wins and covers, have cashed just 63 of 150 games. Take the Clippers. |
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11-23-18 | East Carolina v. Cincinnati -17 | Top | 6-56 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over East Carolina. Cincy was blown out, 38-13, last week by Central Florida. But I love them to bounce back as a double-digit home favorite today, on Friday. Indeed, since 1988, teams playing their final home game of the season have cashed 66.0% if they were favored by 16+ points, and lost their previous game by 16+ points. Lay the points with the Bearcats. |
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11-23-18 | Rangers v. Flyers -143 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Flyers over the New York Rangers. In an effort to fix their goaltending issues, the Flyers used their third starting net-minder in as many games on Wednesday. After giving starts to veterans Brian Elliott (vs. Devils on Nov. 15), and Calvin Pickard (Lightning on Nov. 17), Philly turned to 2nd year NHLer Alex Lyon for his first start of the season. Unfortunately, Lyon couldn't turn around the Flyers' fortune. But the good news is that when the struggling Pickard replaced Lyon after four goals in 12 shots, Pickard was perfect the rest of the way. He should be back in goal in this matinee special against the visiting Rangers. This is the first meeting of the season between these two, and the last time they met -- April 7 -- the Flyers shut out the Rangers 5-0 while out-shooting them 40-17. This has been a very host-friendly series lately as the home team has won four of the last five meetings. Admittedly, the Rangers have won three straight by a combined score of 11-3. But they are a poor 4-14 in their last 18 road games after allowing two goals or less in each of their last two games. Take Philly. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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11-23-18 | Nebraska v. Iowa -8 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have won their last two games, but each of those were at home. And the Huskers were favored in both games. Now, they have to travel to Iowa City to take on the Hawkeyes in Iowa's final home game of the season. And Nebraska's an ugly 0-13 SU and 3-9-13 ATS as road underdogs of +3 or more points off back to back wins as a favorite. The Hawkeyes exploded for 63 points last week, in a 63-0 win at Illinois. And single-digit home favorites (or PK) have covered 62.8% since 1980 after scoring 60+ points in a win the previous week. Take Iowa. |
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11-22-18 | Falcons +13.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -115 | 38 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over New Orleans, as Atlanta falls into my best NFL system, which is 216-128 ATS. That angle is 4-1 this season, though it did lose last week on the Eagles against these Saints. New Orleans made a mockery of the defending Super Bowl champs last week, with a 48-7 blowout win. I'll go against the Saints as a double-digit favorite, as NFL teams that scored more than 85 points over their two previous games have cashed just 31% since 1980 vs. foes that weren't off an ATS win, including an awful 0-12 ATS in division contests against revenge-minded opponents. With Atlanta off an upset loss to Dallas last week, and also playing with revenge from a 43-37 loss to the Saints in September, we'll grab the points with Matt Ryan & Co. Take the Falcons. NFL Division Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-22-18 | Falcons v. Saints UNDER 61 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 38 h 0 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons 'UNDER' the total. Both of these teams went UNDER the total last week. And division games have gone UNDER the total 161-118-2 when both teams went 'under' in their previous game, the line was 43+ points. Additionally, the 'under' falls into 70-36 and 79-43 Totals systems of mine. This will be a relatively-low scoring game. Take the 'under.' NFL Total of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-22-18 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss +11.5 | Top | 35-3 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 9 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ole Miss Rebels + the points over Mississippi State. The Bulldogs blew out Arkansas, 52-6, last week, while their rival, Ole Miss, lost its fifth straight to the point spread, 36-29, at Vanderbilt. But the point spread has taken into account the poor play of Ole Miss, and it's already moved four points higher from the opening number on Sunday. We'll grab the points with the underdog, as we note that .200 (or better) home underdogs of +19 or less points have cashed 76% off 5+ ATS defeats, if they were playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Take the points with the Rebels. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-22-18 | Florida -6 v. Stanford | Top | 72-49 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Stanford. The Gators were upset, 65-60, by Oklahoma last night in this Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament. But that upset loss has triggered a very good 66% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses. Additionally, that was the 2nd straight ATS defeat suffered by Florida. But the Gators are 71-39-4 ATS off back to back ATS losses, including 14-0-1 ATS away from home vs. non-conference foes! Lay the points with Florida. NCAA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-22-18 | Villanova -13 v. Canisius | Top | 83-56 | Win | 100 | 1 h 22 m | Show |
At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats minus the points over Canisius. Jay Wright's men don't look like they will be defending their national championship this season. Last season, the Wildcats lost just four games the entire year. This season, after starting 2-0, they proceeded to lose their next two games. And they failed to cover the spread in those games by an average of 28.75 ppg! But off those two defeats, we'll play on Villanova, as they're 11-3 ATS their last 14 off an ATS loss. And Villanova also falls into a 62% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with a negative point spread differential. Take the Wildcats. NCAA High Roller Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions UNDER 44.5 | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
At 12:30 pm, our NFC NORTH DIVISION TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the 'under' in the Chicago/Detroit game. These two teams met just 11 days ago in Chicago. The Bears won a high-scoring contest, 34-22, as a 7-point favorite. In the NFL, when two teams met two games back, and played a high-scoring game that went 'over' the total, the rematch has gone 'under' the total 58% of the time. The Under also falls into a 158-97 Totals System of mine. Take the Bears and Lions UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-21-18 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Memphis. The Spurs have completely dominated this series over the last nine seasons, as they're 34-8 straight-up and 26-15-1 ATS since the 2011-12 season. San Antonio did lose its previous game, 140-126, to the Pelicans. But that wasn't a surprise to us, as we had our strongest play this month on New Orleans in that game. San Antonio is a solid 78-49 ATS off a loss when not installed as an underdog of more than 2 points, while the Grizzlies fall into a negative 6-32 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off 3+ ATS wins. Take the Spurs. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-21-18 | Blazers v. Bucks -6 | Top | 100-143 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Portland. The Blazers had to play last night in New York, while Milwaukee was resting at home. This will also be Portland's 3rd game in four nights. And Milwaukee will be playing with revenge from a loss in Portland on November 6. Portland's covered just 15 of 42 road games off back-to-back wins, if it's matched up against a revenge-minded foe with a .625 (or better) record. And the Bucks fall into a super 237-152 ATS revenge system of mine. Take the Bucks minus the points. |
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11-21-18 | Pistons v. Rockets -9 | Top | 124-126 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Detroit. This will be the first of a home-and-home series with the Pistons (they'll play in Detroit in Friday). The Rockets are finally playing up to their expectations, with four straight wins and covers. I look for them to make it five in a row, as home favorites off three straight double-digit wins, in which they scored 105+ points in each victory, are 109-69 ATS including 64-31 ATS vs. winning opponents. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-21-18 | Panthers v. Lightning -153 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Florida Panthers. If it's possible that a team can get a boost from a loss then the Lightning possibly just did that. Heading to Nashville to face the #1 team is no cake walk for any club in the NHL, but the Bolts basically played the Predators even for 60 minutes, finally succumbing by a slim 3-2 margin while holding their own in basically every phase of the game. The Bolts had won two straight before that loss -- in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia -- and tonight they go "down in class" by facing the Panthers at home. Tampa is 7-3 at Amalie Arena, and should penetrate Florida's defense, which has broken down on this road trip by allowing 16 goals in the last three games -- at Columbus, New York, and Ottawa. And the Bolts' offense has posted a league-leading 3.57 goals-per-game average. The Panthers are 0-5 in the last five meetings in Tampa while the home team is 8-1 in the last nine meetings of these two. Take Tampa. NHL Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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11-21-18 | Pelicans v. 76ers -4 | Top | 120-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over New Orleans. Dating back to last season, the 76ers are 35-4 straight-up and 27-12 ATS at home, including 15-0 SU and 13-2 ATS vs. foes with a losing ATS record (New Orleans is 8-9 ATS). Meanwhile, New Orleans is 3-20 ATS off a double-digit division win, if it's on the road, and not favored by 3.5. Take Philly minus the points. |
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11-21-18 | Pacers v. Hornets -2.5 | Top | 109-127 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over Indiana. The Pacers come into this game off an upset win as a 4-point underdog over Utah, 121-94, at home on Monday. But off that big win, we will fade the Pacers as a road dog tonight. Since 1990, underdogs have covered just 36.1% in the regular season after an upset win in which they covered the spread by more than 30 points, if they were on the road vs. an opponent also off a win. Take Charlotte. NBA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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11-21-18 | Flyers -105 v. Sabres | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Flyers over the Buffalo Sabres. Philly's on a 3-game losing streak (all at home, no less), even though they've outshot their opponents 104-83 over those three games. The problem hasn't been their offense, but rather their goaltending. The Flyers gave up six goals in their last game -- a 6-5 loss to Tampa Bay -- and that was all coach Dave Hakstol needed to pull the trigger on a goalie change. Tonight, 25-year-old Alex Lyon will make his first appearance of the season after being called up from the AHL last week. He will replace Cal Pickard, who had a 4.60 GAA and .852 saves pct. in eight appearances. I look for Lyon to be the catalyst for Philly to get back to its winning ways. The Flyers are 6-2 off 3 home losses, while Buffalo is a poor 29-53 when playing its fourth game in seven nights, and 6-12 after scoring 4+ goals in a road win. Take the Flyers. NHL Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-20-18 | Raptors v. Magic +6.5 | Top | 93-91 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over Toronto. The Magic won their 3rd straight game (both SU and ATS) on Sunday, when they blew out the Knicks, 131-117. And that followed a 130-117 upset win over the Lakers, on Saturday, and an upset win over Philly, on Wednesday. I look for Orlando to get its fourth straight cover, as .500 (or better) home underdogs (or PK) are 59-28-2 ATS off back to back double-digit SU/ATS wins. And Toronto is an awful 1-7 ATS on the road vs. foes off back to back wins. Take the Magic. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-20-18 | Clippers v. Wizards -1 | Top | 118-125 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards over the LA Clippers. The Clippers are outperforming expectations this season, as they are 11-5, including a 32-point blowout win over these Wizards in Los Angeles last month. This will be the 3rd game of a 3-game road trip for L.A., which won SU/ATS last night at Atlanta. L.A.'s been installed as a small underdog. But, unfortunately for the Clippers, .500 (or better) underdogs off a SU/ATS win are 16-40 ATS vs. foes playing with revenge from a 30-point (or worse) defeat. Meanwhile, Washington is an awesome 28-8 ATS at home when playing with revenge, and not favored by more than two points. Take the Wizards. NBA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-19-18 | Thunder v. Kings +2.5 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Kings have outperformed expectations in this young season, with a .500 record through the first month. One of their early wins was an 11-point upset win at Oklahoma City in the first week of the season. Some might look for the Thunder to avenge that defeat tonight, but Oklahoma City has been awful in that role of late, as it's 4-17 ATS its last 21 when playing with revenge from an upset loss earlier in the season, including 1-10 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes! And, yes, it's true that Sacramento is off back to back SU/ATS losses, while OKC is off 3 SU/ATS wins. But home underdogs off back-to-back SU/ATS losses have gone 110-66 ATS vs. non-division foes off 3 ATS wins. Take Sacramento. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams -155 | Top | 51-54 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City. This is the most anticipated Monday Night NFL game of the season, as it pits the 9-1 Chiefs vs. the 9-1 Rams. If history is any indication, the homestanding Rams will get the victory. First, in weekday (Monday/Thursday) games between teams with .715 (or better) records (at Game 7 forward), the favorites have gone 18-2 SU and 16-2-2 ATS since 1987. And, second, in Monday Night games since 1980, .430 (or better) home teams have gone 95-52-4 ATS off a win, if they were playing a non-division foe. It's true that the underdog Chiefs have won 4 straight games, while the Rams have lost their last three to the point spread. But the point spread has also started to catch up with Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs, as they've lost two of their last three to the spread. And NFL teams, like Kansas City, off 4+ wins, and an ATS loss in their previous game, are an awful 15.7% ATS vs. non-division foes off 3+ ATS losses. Finally, the Chiefs also fall into negative 2-17 and 27-57 ATS systems of mine that play against certain NFL underdogs off wins. Take Los Angeles. Monday Night Football Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-19-18 | Nuggets +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-104 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Milwaukee. The Nuggs lost at home, 121-111, to Milwaukee eight days ago. But that loss has triggered a 125-73 ATS revenge system of mine. Even better for Denver: it lost its previous game, 125-115, at New Orleans. But Denver is a solid 22-7 ATS off a loss when not favored by more than three points (including a perfect 10-0 ATS vs. .583 (or better) foes. Take Denver. Perfect 10 Club Play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-19-18 | Spurs v. Pelicans -7.5 | Top | 126-140 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over San Antonio. The Spurs have had more success than any franchise in our four major sports, but they've had NO SUCCESS in the Crescent City over the last 8 years. Certainly, the one game that most basketball fans would remember came on the last day of the 2014-15 season. The Spurs needed to win in New Orleans to secure the #2 seed in the playoffs. But they lost as a 5.5-point favorite, and that single defeat knocked them all the way down to the #6 seed (and they they lost to the Clippers in the first round). San Antonio is now 1-14 ATS in their last 15 meetings here in New Orleans, including the last eight in a row. And they've failed to cover the point spread by an average of 9.63 points per game. We played on San Antonio last night vs. Golden State, and the Spurs rewarded us by winning an emotional game vs. the defending NBA Champs. But NBA underdogs are a poor 21-33 ATS after defeating Golden State, including 0-9 ATS when priced from +6 to +7.5 points, and 3-12 ATS on the road if its opponent was playing with revenge. With the Pelicans indeed playing with revenge from a 14-point loss suffered in San Antonio earlier this month, we'll lay the points with Anthony Davis & Co. Take New Orleans. NBA Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-19-18 | Panthers -150 v. Senators | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the Ottawa Senators. The Panthers are in the midst of an eastern road swing that started out well enough with a win over the Flyers in Philadelphia. But since that one they've lost two straight in Columbus and New York and now they travel north to face the Senators for the second time this season. The Panthers jumped all over this club only eight days ago, taking a convincing 5-1 game in south Florida. And they did that with their back-up goalie, James Reimer, in net. Veteran Roberto Luongo should be back in goal tonight. And despite his ripe age of 39, Luongo is enjoying another solid season with a 2.48 GAA and .918 save pct., since returning to action just 17 days ago. With 81 goals allowed in their first 20 games, the Sens have the dubious distinction of having the worst defense in the NHL with a horrific 4.05 GAA. And they've allowed an absurd average of 38.4 shots on goal per game. Florida has a losing record so far this season at 7-7-3, but that may not be the best thing for Ottawa, as it's just 10-26 in its last 36 vs. losing teams. Take the Panthers. NHL High Roller Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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11-19-18 | Sabres v. Penguins -185 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -185 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins over the Buffalo Sabres. Two weeks ago, the Pens pulled a rare feat -- for them -- by losing five games in a row. They're staring at another four-game losing streak tonight. But two weeks ago, after losing three straight, they were facing the Caps followed by the Devils -- two teams that always give them fits. Tonight, it's perhaps the one team they'd MOST like to see in this situation as the Sabres come to town for the first time in almost a year. Pittsburgh has won the last five in a row and nine of the last 10 vs. Buffalo. The numbers are almost as lopsided here in PPG Paints Arena where the Pens are 24-7 in the last 31 meetings. Despite their recent success, the Sabres are still 14-26, -14 games on the money line, off a win. And they're an awful 28-53, -14 games on the money line, when playing their fourth game in seven days. Meanwhile, the Pens are 55-29 after allowing more than three goals, and 6-0 after allowing more than three goals in three straight games. After giving up 22 goals on 129 shots over his last six appearances, I look for goalie Matt Murray (and the Penguins) to bounce back tonight. Take Pittsburgh. NHL Game of the Month. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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11-18-18 | Warriors v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 92-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Golden State. Since the 1997-98 season, the Spurs have been the best franchise. And not just in the NBA, but in all of the major North American sports. And of all the great statistics to illustrate just how good this franchise has been, this one is my favorite. Since the 1997-98 season, the Spurs have had a record under .500 for a total of 48 days. The next closest NBA team: the Houston Rockets, who have been under .500 for 884 days! San Antonio will try to not go under .500 for the first time this season, as it enters this evening's game with a 7-7 record. The Spurs have lost their last three games. But I love them to bounce back at home tonight vs. a Warriors club which had to play last night in Dallas. San Antonio will be much more well-rested, as it has had the last 2 days off. The Spurs are 87-56-2 ATS vs. unrested foes. And they're 146-118-1 ATS when they had the previous 2 days off. Finally, the Spurs are 45-27-1 ATS in the regular season off 3+ losses, Take San Antone. NBA Elite INfo Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-18-18 | VMI v. Kentucky -33 | Top | 82-92 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over VMI. The Keydets are 3-1 on the season after defeating South Carolina Upstate, 78-72, on Tuesday. But the Wildcats are a Top 10-ranked team, so VMI will be clearly outclassed this evening. Indeed, VMI's lone loss this year was to ACC Conference member, Pittsburgh (94-55), while its three wins were vs. Goucher, Washington (MD), and South Carolina Upstate. It's tough even for winning teams to step up in class, as evidenced by the fact that .630 (or better) teams are a poor 41-78 ATS as road underdogs of more than 23 points. Kentucky comes into this game off a blowout win over another outclassed foe, North Dakota. Kentucky was favored by 26, and won by 38. And the Wildcats are 10-3 ATS at home their last 13 when favored by 26+ points. Take Kentucky to blow out VMI. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-18-18 | Eagles +9.5 v. Saints | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -125 | 84 h 45 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over New Orleans. The Eagles were upset by the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday night, as a 7.5-point favorite. We had a play on the Cowboys, so that result didn't surprise us. But off that upset loss, we'll look for Philly to bounce back on the road, at New Orleans, on Sunday. Indeed, defending Super Bowl champions have cashed 82.6% over the last 39 seasons on the road off a loss, if they weren't favored by 2+ points, and their opponent was off a point spread win! Even better: if our defending Champs were off an UPSET loss, then our 82.6% ATS angle zooms to a perfect 16-0-2 ATS. Additionally, the Eagles fall into 154-68, 224-118 and 101-45 ATS systems of mine. Take Philly. 5* NFL Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-18-18 | Raiders v. Cardinals OVER 41 | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Arizona/Oakland game. Both of these two teams have been hemorrhaging points on defense. In their last four games, the Raiders have given up 27, 42, 34 and 20 points (30.75 ppg), while Arizona has given up 27, 45, 15 and 26 points (28.25 ppg). The over falls into 79-56, 110-73 and 159-108 systems of mine. Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-18-18 | Raiders +6 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Arizona. This match-up is obviously one between two very bad teams. Oakland is 1-8, after dropping a 20-6 home game to the Chargers, while Arizona is 2-7 following its 26-14 loss at Kansas City. Certainly, I won't be able to extol any of Oakland's virtues (because there are none). Instead, I will just submit that it's dangerous in the NFL to lay points with bad teams, like Arizona. And that's even if their opponent is equally bad, or worse (as is Oakland). Indeed, since 1980, at Game 8 forward, NFL home favorites of more than 2 points, with a .225 (or worse) win percentage, have covered just 36 of 99 games, including just four of 18 games if their opponent had less than two wins on the season. The Raiders also fall into a 66-37 and 106-55 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams on 5-game (or worse) losing streaks, as well as 65-29 and 115-68 ATS angles that play on certain teams that failed to score 10 points in their previous game. Take Oakland. NFL Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-18-18 | Grizzlies v. Wolves -4.5 | Top | 100-87 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves minus the points over Memphis. Last night, Jimmy Butler showed why he is such a great player. The 76ers went to him for game-winning buckets, both at the end of regulation (he missed), and at the end of the overtime session (he converted). The 76ers were missing a player with his skill set to whom they could turn for end-of-game offense, so his acquisition has completely transformed their team. But just because the Timberwolves divested themselves of Butler's talent, it would a mistake to think that Minnesota will necessarily win less games. Chemistry is very important for an NBA roster, and Butler's personality didn't mesh with Minnesota's other star talent. Since trading him, the T-Wolves have gone 3-0 SU/ATS, and I look for them to stretch their win streak to 4 games this afternoon. Even though Minnesota hasn't been above .500 all season, they've actually played great at home, at the Target Center, where they're 7-1 straight-up and 6-2 ATS (compared to 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS on the road). Lay the points with Minnesota. NBA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-18-18 | Cowboys v. Falcons -3 | Top | 22-19 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Dallas. Last week, the Cowboys upset the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles, 27-20, as a 7.5-point underdog. But off that upset win, let’s fade the Cowboys in Atlanta. For technical support, consider that teams that pulled upset wins over the defending Super Bowl Champs, and covered the point spread by 14 or more points in that upset win, have gone 6-18 ATS in their next game if installed as a road underdog. Also, last week, the Falcons were upset as a 5.5-point road favorite by the Cleveland Browns. But home teams, off upset road losses, have gone 71-43 ATS since 1980 vs. opponents off upset wins. Take the Falcons minus the points. |
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11-18-18 | Bucs +3 v. Giants | Top | 35-38 | Push | 0 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs + the points over the New York Giants. Tampa Bay scored just three points last week, notwithstanding the fact it went up and down the field, and amassed 501 yards of offense. Turnovers, of course, were the primary culprit. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick had three turnovers, which marred a 29-of-41 passing day (for 406 yards). For the season, Tampa ranks dead last in turnovers, at 25. The good news, though, for this game is that the Giants rank as the 8th worst team in forcing turnovers, as they've only taken away the ball nine times. Last week, New York upset the San Francisco 49ers, 27-23, as a 3-point underdog. But the Giants are a miserable 1-8 ATS off a point spread win. Take Tampa Bay. |
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11-18-18 | Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 44 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens to go 'under' the total. The Ravens have issues at the quarterback position for this game, as starter Joe Flacco is out with a hip injury. Thus, rookie first-round pick, Lamar Jackson, is going to get the nod, with Robert Griffin III to serve as his back-up. Regardless, though, of who is going to be under center for Baltimore, I love the UNDER. Baltimore has played six of its last seven UNDER the total. And 12 of its last 16 home divisional match-ups have sailed UNDER the total. The Ravens also have gone UNDER in 20 of their last 24 games that were priced between 43.5 and 49.5 points, including 9-1 UNDER if the Ravens were favored in those games by 4+ points. The Bengals also will be without their best offensive player, A.J. Green. Take the Ravens/Bengals UNDER the total. AFC North Total of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-18-18 | Titans v. Colts -1.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Tennessee. The Titans have won their last two games -- both as underdogs -- against the Cowboys and Patriots. And they've covered their last three in a row (each in the underdog role). Tennessee is now 5-4 on the season, and will travel to Indianapolis today to take on its AFC South division rival. The Colts also have been playing well of late, as they're 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games, with the primary difference being that they were installed as a favorite (rather than an underdog) in each game. The Colts are 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 as a favorite. And they're 21-2 SU and 16-5-2 ATS when favored over a division rival. Finally, NFL road teams are a miserable 25.7% ATS over the last 39 years after covering the point spread as underdogs in each of their last three games. Take Indianapolis. AFC South Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-17-18 | UNLV v. Hawaii -5.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
At 11 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors minus the points over UNLV. The Runnin' Rebels upset San Diego St., 27-24, as a 24-point underdog last Saturday. That was the 2nd biggest upset on the road this season. Only Oregon State's 41-34 upset at Colorado, as a 26.5-point underdog, was a bigger upset. Not surprisingly, as a majority of teams do after pulling such upsets on the road, Oregon State failed to cover the spread the next week vs. USC. Indeed, since 1980, teams off a road upset as an underdog greater than 19 points, have covered just 35% their following game, including a paltry 18% if its opponent was off a point spread loss. And Hawaii is off an ATS loss, as it fell by 39 points to the Utah St. Aggies two weeks ago, as a 17.5-point underdog. The fact that Hawaii will play with an extra week of rest certainly won't hurt (Hawaii's cashed 64% at home since 1985 when playing with rest vs. an unrested opponent). Even worse for UNLV: it's just 2-14 ATS off a road win over a conference foe. Take Hawaii. Mountain West Conf. Game of the Year! Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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11-17-18 | Blues v. Sharks -188 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the San Jose Sharks over St. Louis. Last night, the Blues went into Vegas, and upset the Golden Knights. Can they make it two upsets in a row? It's not likely, as San Jose will be the more well-rested team this evening, as it had last night off. Moreover, the Sharks will be looking to avenge a 4-0 shutout loss to the Blues eight days ago. And San Jose is a super 24-9 when playing with revenge from a loss by more than 3 goals, and 9-3 when playing with revenge from a shutout loss. Take the Sharks. |
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11-17-18 | Oilers v. Flames -130 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over the Edmonton Oilers. Two teams that are seemingly treading water at this point in the season meet tonight in Calgary as the Oilers come in for their first visit since last Spring. Edmonton made two appearances here, 18 days apart on March 13 and 31 and the Flames won both of those. Sure, they feature the best player on the Planet in Connor McDavid, but is he enough to make the Oilers a legitimate Stanley Cup contender? Not when the rest of the team keeps under-achieving. And although they added some pieces in the off-season, they may not have done enough to differentiate themselves from other contenders. The results of the season so far seem to bear that out as the Oilers have gone just 9-8-1 in their first 18 games. The offense was there last season, but the Oilers needed to improve on Defense. And so far, at least, they haven't done that. The Oilers' 3.11 GAA is only slightly better than their 3.20 number from last season, which was highest in the Western Conference. The home team is 4-1 in the last five meetings of these two. Take the Flames. |
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11-17-18 | Kings v. Predators -224 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Nashville Predators over the Los Angeles Kings. After starting their season with eight straight road wins, the Predators hit the proverbial wall, and have lost their last three road games. The good news for the Preds is that they're back home tonight. And they'll have the added advantage of playing an unrested Kings team off an upset win over the Blackhawks last night. L.A. is an awful 53-88 on the road when the O/U line was 6 goals or more, and it's won just 17 of 50 games (minus 19 games on the money line) when playing an opponent with a winning record! Meanwhile, Nashville's a powerful 21-8, + 13 games on the money line, off back to back losses (and 6-1 off 3+ losses). Take the Predators. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-17-18 | Georgia Southern v. Coastal Carolina +7.5 | Top | 41-17 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers + the points over Georgia Southern. Coastal Carolina comes into this game -- its final home game of the season -- off back-to-back home losses. But home dogs have cashed 57% since 1980 in their final home game of the season off back to back home defeats. Moreover, the Chanticleers will be playing, perhaps, their biggest home game ever in their school history this afternoon. With a win, Coastal Carolina will become bowl-eligible, and will qualify to play in a Post-season Bowl game for the very first time. With that huge motivation on its side, we'll grab the points with the Chanticleers today. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-17-18 | Drexel v. La Salle -10.5 | Top | 89-84 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the La Salle Explorers minus the points over Drexel. The Dragons may be without point guard Kurk Lee (14.5 ppg) today. He sat out Drexel's 118-41 win over tiny Bryn Athyn (the smallest school in Division III) on Wednesday, but I expect him to play. Regardless, we will go against Drexel in this cross-town rivalry contest. Last year, Drexel went into La Salle, and upset the Explorers, 72-70, as a 12-point underdog. Today's game is also at La Salle, and I love the Explorers to avenge last season's upset loss. Indeed, over the last 29 seasons, double-digit home favorites have cashed 81% when playing with revenge from a loss as a double-digit favorite vs. a non-conference foe. Take La Salle. NCAA Payback Payday! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-17-18 | Syracuse +10.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 3-36 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange + the points over Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are 10-0, and ranked #3 in the country. And they enter this game off a 29-point win over Florida State last weekend. But College Football favorites of 15 points or less (or PK) have covered just 31.3% away from home since 1980 in the regular season, if they were on an 8-game (or better) win streak, and off a point spread win. Take Syracuse. |
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11-17-18 | Ohio State v. Maryland +14.5 | Top | 52-51 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins + the points over Ohio State. The Buckeyes have been a big money-burner in Las Vegas this season, as they're 4-6 ATS, including 2-5 ATS vs. Big 10 Conference foes. I don't expect things to change on this Saturday, as they will have to play a Maryland club desperate to earn a win in one of its final two games to qualify for a Bowl game. The Terrapins certainly had hoped to secure their 6th victory of the season in one of their two previous games, but they lost at home to Michigan State, and then last week at Indiana. The good news, though, for Maryland is that it's 11-2 ATS since 1980 in its last home game of the season, if it's off a SU/ATS loss, and facing a conference opponent (and 7-0 ATS if it's off back to back SU/ATS losses). Meanwhile, Ohio State has been awful vs. Big 10 Conference foes off back to back losses. Since 2006, it has gone 5-15 ATS, including 0-7 ATS when priced from -10.5 to -24 points. Finally, the Buckeyes fall into a negative 40-91 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off SU/ATS wins. Take Maryland. Big 10 Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-17-18 | Pittsburgh -6 v. Wake Forest | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Pitt Panthers minus the points over Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons pulled off a monstrous upset last week, when they went into Raleigh, and upended the NC State Wolfpack, 27-23, as a 19-point dog. Unfortunately, they're a horrid 1-12 ATS at home in competitively-priced games with a line less than 8 points, if they're off an upset win. And, generally speaking, teams off upset wins as underdogs of +19 or more points don't do very well in their next game. And especially not at home, where they've cashed just 30 of 79. I look for Pitt to cover its sixth straight game today. Lay the points. |
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11-17-18 | Middle Tennessee State v. Kentucky -16 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Middle Tennessee State. The Wildcats fall into my favorite College Football system, which is 89-39 ATS since 1980. And that angle plays on certain NCAA teams off blowout losses (Kentucky lost, 24-7, at Tennessee last Saturday). That was the 2nd straight blowout loss suffered by Kentucky (it lost, 34-17, to Georgia two weeks ago), which has seen its record fall to 7-3. But I love the 'Cats to bounce back vs. Middle Tennessee, as SEC Conference teams have covered 68.1% vs. non-conference foes, if our SEC team was off an upset conference loss, and also lost SU/ATS two games back. Even worse for the Blue Raiders: they've done very poorly vs. SEC Conference teams. This season, Middle Tenn was blown out by Vanderbilt (35-7) and Georgia (49-7); last year, it also got drubbed by Vandy (28-6). Dating back to 2009, it's 1-13 straight up vs. SEC Conference foes, and 4-10 ATS. Take Kentucky. Non-Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-16-18 | Boise State v. New Mexico +20 | Top | 45-14 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Boise State. The Broncos come into this game on a five-game win streak after upsetting Fresno State last week. Meanwhile, New Mexico has dropped its last five games. The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against the cold Lobos, and bet on the hot Broncos, including a 42-24 defeat, as a 14-point underdog, at Air Force last Saturday. But since 1980, home teams on 5-game (or worse) losing streaks have covered 67% vs. foes on 5-game (or better) win streaks, if our home team was also off an ATS loss, while our road team was off an ATS win. Take New Mexico. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-16-18 | Memphis v. SMU +7.5 | Top | 28-18 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over Memphis. SMU enters this game off back to back double-digit wins over Houston (45-31) and Connecticut (62-50). Off those two high-scoring wins, we'll grab the points with SMU, as it falls into a system of mine which has cashed 63% since 1980. What we want to do is play on any home underdog off back to back wins, if it scored 90+ points combined over its two previous games. SMU needs just one more win to achieve eligibility to play in a post-season Bowl game. With this being its final home game of the season, I expect a supreme effort tonight. Take the Mustangs + the points. NCAA Football Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-16-18 | The Citadel v. Texas -22 | Top | 69-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over The Citadel. The Bulldogs are 2-1 following a 137-60 blowout of Florida Christian College, while the Longhorns are 3-0 after their 65-55 win over Louisiana Monroe, as a 19-point favorite. It's true that Texas has yet to cash a ticket in Vegas, as it is 0-3 ATS this season. But I look for that to change tonight, as undefeated teams, with an 0-3 ATS record, have cashed 71% since 1992, if installed as a favorite. Lay the points with the Longhorns. NCAA Hoops High Roller Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-15-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1.5 | Top | 86-107 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Golden State, as Houston falls into an 89-48 ATS revenge system of mine. These two teams met for the "de facto" NBA Championship last season, in the Western Conference finals, and Houston lost a heartbreaking 7th game, 101-92, when it blew an 11-point halftime lead. Certainly, when the NBA execs drew up the schedule, this game would have been one of the most highly anticipated games of the season. But some of its luster has been lost due to the absence of Steph Curry, as well as by Houston's slow start to the season. The Rockets are a game below .500, at 6-7, but I expect it to be in the Conference's upper tier by season's end. For our purposes tonight, Houston's losing record has created significant point spread value, especially given that Golden State's best player (Curry) won't be in uniform. And even though Golden State owns the league's best record, at 12-3, it has gone 0-4 ATS this season on the road vs. teams that currently have a .400 (or better) win percentage. Finally, the Warriors are an awful 12-23 ATS as underdogs vs. .660 (or worse) opposition, including 1-9 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins. Take the Rockets. NBA TV Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-15-18 | Red Wings v. Senators -119 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Ottawa Senators over Detroit. The Sens are mired in last place in the Atlantic division, but I love them to get back into the win column on Thursday night. Ottawa's greatest problem has been its inability to win away from home, as it's lost five of its last six road games. At home, the Sens have been much more competitive, as they're 5-3 their last eight, including a perfect 4-0 when not installed as an underdog greater than +140. Here, of course, Ottawa's a slight favorite, and it's actually the first time all season (in 19 games) that the Sens were the favored club! It's true that Detroit does enter on a win streak, but the Red Wings are a poor 11-21, minus 10 games on the money line, off back to back wins. And they're also 11-22, minus 12 games on the money line, after not allowing 2+ goals in their previous game. Finally, Ottawa has the benefit of being well-rested, as it hasn't played in the last three days, while Detroit will be playing its fourth game in seven nights. The only other time this season that Ottawa played with 3+ days off was on October 20, vs. Montreal, and the Senators upset the Canadiens, 5-4. Also, Detroit's a poor 31-51, minus 17 games on the money line, when saddled with a 4th game in seven nights. Take Ottawa. NHL Division Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-15-18 | Devils v. Flyers -128 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -128 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Flyers over the New Jersey Devils. The 2018-2019 version of the Devils is a pretty good team, and they would be a very good team if it weren't for one glaring problem. They are terrible when playing on the road. In eight games at Prudential Center, the Devils are 6-1-1 and they have an average goal-differential of 1.62 (3.75 GF vs. 2.13 GA) -- second-best in the NHL (Boston 1.89). But away from New Jersey, this team is 1-7 with a -2.50 average differential (2.38 vs. 4.88). This makes them the biggest Jeckyll and Hyde team of the season so far. The Devils returned from a disastrous seven-game road trip where they went 1-6 and were out-scored in those losses, 33-12 to beat a very good Penguins team at home on Tuesday, 4-2. The Flyers had won three straight coming into the week but lost a tough one to the Panthers on Tuesday, 2-1, despite out-shooting them. Still, this a team on the right trajectory, having won five of its last seven, with the two losses being close, one-goal games. The home team is 6-2 in the last eight meetings of these two. Take Philly. NHL Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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11-14-18 | Blazers v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Portland. The Trail Blazers are currently on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak, and have sprinted out to a 10-3 record -- which is the 2nd best record in the Western Conference. But Portland is nowhere near the 2nd best team. Indeed, its gaudy record has more to do with its schedule than its true talent. The primary reason for Portland's record is that it has played nine of its 13 games at home. And three of its four road games were played against teams that currently sport losing records! Tonight, the Blazers will travel to Los Angeles to take on a Lakers team it already played twice at home. We played on Portland in the first meeting, and on the Lakers in the 2nd meeting, and cashed both games. We'll take the Lakers tonight, as LeBron James' teams have cashed 71% in his career as favorites vs. conference foes on a 4-game (or better) win streak. Lay the points. NBA GAME OF THE WEEK! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-14-18 | Ducks v. Golden Knights -165 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Anaheim Ducks. With Marc-Andre Fleury struggling of late, the Golden Knights decided to give their All Star goalie a break when they played their second game in as many days on Sunday. The switch to back-up Malcolm Subban didn't help however as Vegas dropped its second in a row (and third in its last four), by a 4-1 count to the Bruins. But Fleury has been a home-ice specialist this season as he is 4-2-1 with a 2.28 GAA in seven starts at T-Mobile Arena vs. just 3-5-0 with a 3.02 number in eight starts elsewhere. The Ducks are already thin on the front lines, with four wingers out due to injury tonight (Eaves, Rowney, Perry, Roy). And now there is more bad news for Anaheim as its #1 blue-line player, D Cam Fowler, took a puck to the face on Monday, so he will not be available either. The Ducks cannot afford to have offensive players sitting out as their goals-per-game ranks as the second-worst in the NHL, bettering only the LA Kings' 2.06 gpg. The Golden Knights are 14-5 after not scoring 2+ goals in their previous game, and are 4-1 their last five vs. the Ducks. Take Vegas. NHL HIGH ROLLER WINNER. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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11-14-18 | Marquette v. Indiana -5.5 | Top | 73-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Marquette. The Eagles are 2-0, with home wins over Maryland-Baltimore County (67-42) and Bethune-Cookman (92-59). Unfortunately, the Eagles are an awful 1-9 ATS their last 10 off a double-digit win. Even worse for Marquette: it has to play on the road at Assembly Hall vs. a Hoosiers team which won its first two games by a combined score of 184-90. Off those two wins, Indiana now falls into a 'momentum' system of mine which is 85-29 ATS since 1990. Finally, NCAA basketball teams that give up 45 ppg (or less) on defense have covered 73% at home since 1990 vs. foes off a win, if our home team also covered the spread by 10+ points its previous game. Take the Hoosiers. NCAA GAME OF THE WEEK. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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Big Al McMordie ALL Sports Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-02-18 | Cardinals +14.5 v. Packers | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 61 h 25 m | Show |
12-02-18 | Rams v. Lions +11 | Top | 30-16 | Loss | -128 | 60 h 57 m | Show |
12-02-18 | Bills v. Dolphins -3.5 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 59 h 45 m | Show |
12-02-18 | Panthers v. Bucs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 58 h 11 m | Show |
12-02-18 | Ravens v. Falcons -125 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -125 | 57 h 17 m | Show |
12-01-18 | California v. St. Mary's -11.5 | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
12-01-18 | Northwestern +14.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 3 m | Show |
12-01-18 | Florida International v. Arkansas -16 | Top | 89-121 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
12-01-18 | Nets v. Wizards -5 | Top | 88-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
12-01-18 | Maple Leafs v. Wild -120 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 57 m | Show |
12-01-18 | Northern Colorado v. Wyoming +1 | Top | 85-80 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
12-01-18 | UAB +1.5 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 62 h 45 m | Show |
12-01-18 | Gonzaga v. Creighton +6.5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
12-01-18 | Sharks -165 v. Senators | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
11-30-18 | Northern Illinois +3.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 30-29 | Win | 100 | 44 h 13 m | Show |
11-29-18 | Saints v. Cowboys +8 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
11-29-18 | Sabres v. Lightning -165 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
11-28-18 | Cal-Irvine v. St. Mary's -6.5 | Top | 80-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
11-28-18 | Portland v. Colorado -15.5 | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
11-28-18 | Virginia v. Maryland +3.5 | Top | 76-71 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
11-27-18 | Raptors v. Grizzlies +5.5 | Top | 122-114 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
11-27-18 | Sharks -115 v. Sabres | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
11-26-18 | Bucks v. Hornets +5 | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
11-26-18 | Wofford v. South Carolina -7.5 | Top | 81-61 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
11-25-18 | Clippers v. Blazers -4.5 | Top | 104-100 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
11-25-18 | Ducks v. Predators -220 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
11-25-18 | Knicks v. Grizzlies -8.5 | Top | 103-98 | Loss | -104 | 1 h 42 m | Show |
11-25-18 | Steelers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
11-24-18 | Celtics v. Mavs +2.5 | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
11-24-18 | Nuggets v. Thunder -5 | Top | 105-98 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
11-24-18 | Notre Dame v. USC +12 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
11-24-18 | Rockets -10 v. Cavs | Top | 108-117 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
11-24-18 | North Texas -24.5 v. UTSA | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
11-24-18 | Kansas State v. Iowa State -12 | Top | 38-42 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
11-24-18 | Flyers v. Maple Leafs -155 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
11-24-18 | Bruins v. Canadiens -120 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
11-24-18 | Sabres v. Red Wings -115 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
11-24-18 | Illinois +16.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
11-24-18 | Pittsburgh v. Miami-FL -5 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 2 h 58 m | Show |
11-24-18 | Georgia Southern v. Georgia State +10.5 | Top | 35-14 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
11-24-18 | Marist v. Buffalo -17 | Top | 49-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
11-24-18 | Detroit v. Eastern Michigan -10 | Top | 78-74 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
11-23-18 | Pelicans -7 v. Knicks | Top | 109-114 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
11-23-18 | South Alabama v. Texas A&M -13 | Top | 62-74 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
11-23-18 | Rockets v. Pistons +4.5 | Top | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
11-23-18 | Central Florida v. South Florida +14.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
11-23-18 | Grizzlies v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
11-23-18 | East Carolina v. Cincinnati -17 | Top | 6-56 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
11-23-18 | Rangers v. Flyers -143 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
11-23-18 | Nebraska v. Iowa -8 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
11-22-18 | Falcons +13.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -115 | 38 h 3 m | Show |
11-22-18 | Falcons v. Saints UNDER 61 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 38 h 0 m | Show |
11-22-18 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss +11.5 | Top | 35-3 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 9 m | Show |
11-22-18 | Florida -6 v. Stanford | Top | 72-49 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
11-22-18 | Villanova -13 v. Canisius | Top | 83-56 | Win | 100 | 1 h 22 m | Show |
11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions UNDER 44.5 | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
11-21-18 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
11-21-18 | Blazers v. Bucks -6 | Top | 100-143 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
11-21-18 | Pistons v. Rockets -9 | Top | 124-126 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
11-21-18 | Panthers v. Lightning -153 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
11-21-18 | Pelicans v. 76ers -4 | Top | 120-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
11-21-18 | Pacers v. Hornets -2.5 | Top | 109-127 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
11-21-18 | Flyers -105 v. Sabres | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
11-20-18 | Raptors v. Magic +6.5 | Top | 93-91 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
11-20-18 | Clippers v. Wizards -1 | Top | 118-125 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
11-19-18 | Thunder v. Kings +2.5 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams -155 | Top | 51-54 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
11-19-18 | Nuggets +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-104 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
11-19-18 | Spurs v. Pelicans -7.5 | Top | 126-140 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
11-19-18 | Panthers -150 v. Senators | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
11-19-18 | Sabres v. Penguins -185 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -185 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Warriors v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 92-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
11-18-18 | VMI v. Kentucky -33 | Top | 82-92 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Eagles +9.5 v. Saints | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -125 | 84 h 45 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Raiders v. Cardinals OVER 41 | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Raiders +6 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Grizzlies v. Wolves -4.5 | Top | 100-87 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Cowboys v. Falcons -3 | Top | 22-19 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Bucs +3 v. Giants | Top | 35-38 | Push | 0 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 44 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Titans v. Colts -1.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
11-17-18 | UNLV v. Hawaii -5.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
11-17-18 | Blues v. Sharks -188 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
11-17-18 | Oilers v. Flames -130 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
11-17-18 | Kings v. Predators -224 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
11-17-18 | Georgia Southern v. Coastal Carolina +7.5 | Top | 41-17 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
11-17-18 | Drexel v. La Salle -10.5 | Top | 89-84 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
11-17-18 | Syracuse +10.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 3-36 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
11-17-18 | Ohio State v. Maryland +14.5 | Top | 52-51 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
11-17-18 | Pittsburgh -6 v. Wake Forest | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
11-17-18 | Middle Tennessee State v. Kentucky -16 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
11-16-18 | Boise State v. New Mexico +20 | Top | 45-14 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
11-16-18 | Memphis v. SMU +7.5 | Top | 28-18 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
11-16-18 | The Citadel v. Texas -22 | Top | 69-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
11-15-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1.5 | Top | 86-107 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
11-15-18 | Red Wings v. Senators -119 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
11-15-18 | Devils v. Flyers -128 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -128 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
11-14-18 | Blazers v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
11-14-18 | Ducks v. Golden Knights -165 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
11-14-18 | Marquette v. Indiana -5.5 | Top | 73-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |