Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-27-14 | LSU -2.5 v. Texas A&M | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 80 h 45 m | Show | |
I am playing on LSU. I am surprised LSU isn’t favored by sever al more points here and I see the Tigers using the rush and a swarming defense to dictate this game from start to finish. LSU pounds the ball for over 200 yards rushing per game and ranks 33rd in the nation in that category. It’s a big reason why they also rank ninth in the nation in time of possession while they hang onto the ball for an average of over 33 minutes per game. A&M , on the other hand, is the biggest sieve against the rush in the SEC which is why the Aggies have only won three conference games this season and have covered the spread only once in their past seven games. A&M owns the best passing attack in the conference and loves to score quickly, which is why they are 120th in the nation in time of possession with just over 26 minutes per game. They won’t have the luxury of blazing downfield against this LSU defense that allows only 16.4 points per game, ranks sixth in the nation in passing yards allowed and second best in the nation in passing efficiency defense. I expect it will be an uncomfortable game for A&M. I feel LSU is likely being undervalued here because of their 17-0 shutout loss to Arkansas last game. But that was against a vastly improved Razorbacks team, on the road and coming off an absolutely soul-crushing 20-13 overtime defeat to Alabama the week before. LSU offensive coordinator Cam Cameron said LSU’s locker room was one of the most emotional he’d ever seen after the loss to according to ESPN and I believe we saw a mentally hungover LSU team last week. That will work in our favor here because the Tigers don’t have to overcome a big spread and they know how to bounce back. They are 25-2 in the Les Miles era in the next game after a loss and the bye last week enables them to come into this game fully prepared and refreshed. 9* Turkey Day Roast |
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11-22-14 | USC v. UCLA -3.5 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 101 h 54 m | Show |
I am playing on UCLA. The Bruins control their own destiny in winning their first conference championship since 1998 and I believe they’ll get the win and cover at home against USC on Saturday. |
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11-22-14 | Oklahoma State +27 v. Baylor | Top | 28-49 | Win | 100 | 122 h 8 m | Show |
OKLAHOMA STATE at BAYLOR I am playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. I believe oddsmakers have inflated this spread way too much for a Baylor team that’s trendy to cheer for right now against an Oklahoma State team that many are loving to criticize right now. While the Cowboys have been underdogs this season, they haven’t been underdogs of within two touchdowns of this week’s number and I feel they’re going to give Baylor an effort that may surprise some. What I like is that there is no panic in the Cowboys, which is essential because head coach Mike Gundy knows many of his team’s offensive challenges come from a young offensive line that will take time to develop. “I’m not sure anger and frustration is a positive resource for improvement,” a calm Gundy told reporters after his team’s fourth straight loss last week. Gundy has managed to keep the focus on him this week also, which has turned some attention away from his struggling units on the field. Oklahoma State legend Boone Pickens said this week that he cheers for the Cowboys and “I don’t care who coaches ‘em”. That has everyone in Stillwater talking about an inferred snub of their coach and it means his players aren’t reading about how bad they are in every local news story. Gundy has been a master in the past of getting his players to pull for him and I believe that’s what will happen on Saturday in a spot where oddsmakers are being very generous with the points. 9* Saturday Shocker |
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11-22-14 | Arizona +4 v. Utah | Top | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 118 h 1 m | Show |
I am playing on ARIZONA. The Wildcats still have hopes of winning the Pac-12 South and I like that motivator, among other things, to propel them to a win on Saturday while preventing them from looking ahead to state rival Arizona State in their season finale. |
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11-22-14 | Louisville v. Notre Dame -3.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -106 | 99 h 20 m | Show |
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11-22-14 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan -1.5 | 32-20 | Loss | -101 | 117 h 54 m | Show | |
WESTERN MICHIGAN at CENTRAL MICHIGAN I am playing on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. The Chippewas have the benefit of home field in this rivalry game that could have ramifications on who wins the MAC West depending on how the last couple of weeks shake out. Central Michigan needs to beat Western Michigan and then have WMU topple NIU in the final game of the season in order to have a shot. So they’re playing for their conference lives right now and I like the fact they’ll be doing it with the conference’s best defense. CMU ranks first in the MAC in total defense (328.4 yards per game), pass defense (209.5), rushing defense (118.9), and scoring defense (22.4). And the Chippewas’ defense has been even better over their last three games where they’re allowing just 279.7 yards per game and a ridiculous 53.7 yards rushing. I feel that last number is the one that will give Western Michigan the most trouble, as its freshman running back Jarvion Franklin is expected to play on a sore ankle that he sprained last week against Eastern Michigan. Franklin is the top freshman running back in the country this year and is a huge part of Western Michigan’s offense with over 1,300 yards this season. Central Michigan has owned this rivalry in recent years with seven wins over the past 10 meetings and I like them to use home field and a stingy defense to take this game on Saturday. 9* Breakfast Club |
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11-21-14 | Air Force v. San Diego State -3.5 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 102 h 38 m | Show | |
I am playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. I like the Aztecs Friday night on home field with a low spread against a team that I feel is going to be hurt by the short week more than San Diego State will be. Air Force is coming off an emotional win – a 45-38 overtime victory over UNLV, which was the Falcons’ first overtime game since 2012. They failed to cover as short faves in their next game in 2012 and I feel it will be the same story this week. Air Force faces its third road outing in its last four games and and it’s a tight turnaround for this Friday night contest. The Falcons have failed to cover in their last five meetings against San Diego State and they are coming up against an angry Aztecs team that blew a 20-point lead in a loss to Boise State last week. San Diego State will be much more comfortable on home soil this week. Last week’s game on the blue turf in Boise was the team’s coldest game in school history with a temperature of just 9 degrees at kickoff. The Aztecs are playing their best offensive football of the season right now also led by Donnel Pumphrey, the top rusher in the conference with over 1,300 yards. They scored 64 points over their last two games, the most of any two-game stretch for them this season against FBS competition. 9* Friday Feast |
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11-20-14 | North Carolina +6.5 v. Duke | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 76 h 13 m | Show |
I am playing on NORTH CAROLINA. Last week I successfully faded Duke by releasing a play on Virginia Tech and I believe the Blue Devils are laying too many points once again this week in their annual Tobacco Road showdown. Besides having a dangerous offense that ranks 23rd in the nation in scoring, UNC is a team that causes turnovers and I feel that turnovers are going to be a huge factor in this game. The Tar Heels have recovered nine fumbles and picked off 11 passes this season and have forced at least one turnover in every game they’ve played. Duke, meanwhile, is coming off its worst turnover performance of the season after coughing the ball up three times against Virginia Tech. The Blue Devils seemingly fell apart in every aspect against the Hokies including missing two field goals by a perfect field goal kicker this season and they gave up four sacks after giving up just four all season combined. They won’t get away with more sloppy play against a UNC team that is playing its best football of the year with three wins in its last four games. The Heels also have a ton of motivation for this game. A win Thursday night would secure bowl eligibility for them and end arch rival Duke’s hopes of winning the ACC Coastal Division. 10* Thursday Best Bet - UNC |
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11-20-14 | Kansas State v. West Virginia -2 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 40 m | Show |
I am playing on WEST VIRGINIA. I feel the Mountaineers are being a little undervalued here by oddsmakers Thursday night after two straight losses. Those losses were to a Big-12 leading TCU squad on a last-second field goal and to a vastly improved Texas team that faced the Mountaineers while I believe they were facing a bit of a hangover from the TCU loss. WVU is still a very good team despite the losses and I believe they’ll be propelled by an incredible home atmosphere on Senior Night in front of a national TV audience. The Mountaineers have used a bye week to shake off the sting of the two-game slide and to get healthy while preparing for another tough opponent. One of the key matchups that has me liking West Virginia here is its outstanding passing game against a so-so pass defense for K-State. WVU ranks 12th in the country with 318 passing yards per game and the team has five receivers with at least 200 yards this year. One of the few weaknesses on this Wildcats team is its pass defense where it ranks 56th in the nation in passing yards allowed and 63rd in the nation in passing efficiency defense. I expect this game to be another exciting one for West Virginia but the determining factor for me is the Mountaineers’ top strength is playing against what I feel is K-State’s biggest weakness. That adds up to what I believe is a very strong play. 10* Thursday Personal Favorite |
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11-15-14 | LSU v. Arkansas -2.5 | Top | 0-17 | Win | 100 | 125 h 19 m | Show |
I am playing on ARKANSAS. Every SEC team that played the Razorbacks this season left the field wiping its brow and letting out a humongous sigh of relief. |
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11-15-14 | Utah v. Stanford -7.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -105 | 123 h 9 m | Show |
I am playing on STANFORD. The Cardinal need one more win to become bowl eligible, they are seeking revenge after losing to Utah last season, and Saturday marks their last home game of the season. |
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11-15-14 | New Mexico +16.5 v. Utah State | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 122 h 45 m | Show | |
I am playing on NEW MEXICO. The Lobos visit the travel-weary Aggies with a pile of points to work with in their back pocket Saturday afternoon. Utah State is coming off one of the worst two-week travel schedules in college football of the season that saw the Aggies ship off to Hawaii and then fly to Wyoming to face the Cowboys on a short week last week. Utah State won and covered both those games despite starting a true freshman, Kent Myers, at QB out of necessity. The Aggies are dealing with a much bigger spread this week and I believe they’ll suffer a bit of a letdown against a New Mexico squad that is much better on the road than it is at home. The Lobos are 0-5 at home this year (1-4 against the spread) and 3-1 straight up and ATS on the road. They use the Mountain West’s best and most bruising running game to get opponents on their heels, like they did last week against Boise State. New Mexico racked up 505 rushing yards in a 60-49 loss to the Broncos, which is the most rushing yards Boise State has ever given up to an opponent in school history. Because the Lobos were getting 17 points, they covered the spread with room to spare last week which marked their third straight cover and fourth in five games. Oddsmakers are once again giving them a lot to work with on Saturday. 9* Saturday Afternoon Shocker |
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11-15-14 | Mississippi State v. Alabama -7 | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -100 | 121 h 59 m | Show |
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11-15-14 | Virginia Tech +5.5 v. Duke | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 118 h 40 m | Show | |
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11-13-14 | California +14 v. USC | Top | 30-38 | Win | 100 | 79 h 50 m | Show |
I am playing on CAL. The Golden Bears haven’t beating USC since 2003 and at I believe the Trojans should be nervous about this year’s game even though it is at Los Angeles Coliseum. The reason is Cal brings one of the best quarterbacks and overall passing games in the nation and it will face a USC secondary that is neither incredible nor entirely healthy. USC ranks 101st in the nation in passing yards allowed per game Freshman starting safety John Plattenburg has a Charlie horse and is expected to be a game-time decision on Thursday. Outside linebacker/safety and arguably the team’s best defensive standout, Su'a Cravens, is expected to play but he suffered an MCL sprain in the last game against Washington State. I feel Bears quarterback Jared Goff will be able to keep Cal in this game and maybe even give them a shot at winning it. He ranks fourth in the nation with 3,119 passing yards and is four passing TDs away from tying a single-season record at Cal. Goff has only four interceptions compared to 10 last year and what makes him so dangerous is the way he spreads the ball around. Cal has six receivers with at least 20 catches this season. The Golden Bears are 4-0 against the spread on the road this season and I feel oddsmakers are being far to nice to them once again for this Pac-12 showdown. 10* Thursday Best Bet |
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11-13-14 | East Carolina -2 v. Cincinnati | Top | 46-54 | Loss | -106 | 77 h 57 m | Show |
I am playing on EAST CAROLINA. I like the Pirates to come away from Cincinnati with a win on Thursday for two main reasons. The first is that just about anywhere you look, the Pirates stack up better statistically. The second is that ECU is coming off one of its most baffling losses in recent school memory and I believe the Pirates will be extra hungry for a win against the Bearcats. There’s no real need to go through every statistic but ECU’s numbers are better than Cincy’s when you stack them up in just about every category on offense and defense. The Pirates have the No. 4 total offense and the No. 3 passing offense in the nation but the number I feel might have the biggest impact on Thursday is the Pirates’ rush defense. ECU’s rush defense ranks eighth in the country and allows just 96.8 yards per game. That will be key against a Cincy offense that used a run game to propel the team to a win over Tulane last week. The Bearcats had two 100-yard rushers in that contest for the first time in a game since 2003, which was a huge benefit for QB Munchie Legaux. Legaux is now the starting QB in place of Gunner Kiel, who has been bothered by a rib injury for several weeks. I don’t believe Legaux will have the comfort level he did against Tulane where a running game opened up the field and made passing easier. I expect ECU to stall the rush and put a tighter squeeze on executing an air assault. ECU is coming off a tough 20-10 loss to Temple and the baffling part is the Pirates never really threatened to win the game despite outgaining the Owls by 293 yards. Five turnovers in sloppy weather killed ECU in the end and I expect the Pirates to take better care of the ball against Cincy. The Pirates are 11-0 ATS following a straight up loss and they have outgained their opponents in yards in all eight of their games this season. 9* Thursday Roast |
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11-12-14 | Ball State +3.5 v. UMass | 10-24 | Loss | -113 | 54 h 8 m | Show | |
I am playing on BALL STATE. The Cardinals have the advantage of facing a Massachusetts squad that just dropped out of bowl eligibility after its last game, a loss to Toledo, followed by a bye week. Normally I’d say a bye week would benefit a team but I believe in situations like this where a team suffered its biggest motivational loss of the season, it’s not helpful to have the added time to dwell on the fact the team just officially failed to achieve its season goal. I don’t think the Minutemen will enter this game with quite the same mental focus as we’ve seen from them recently. I anticipate that leading to unfortunate turnovers against a ball-hawk Ball State team which I believe could be the ultimate decider in this game. The Cardinals have 19 takeaways on the season including 12 in the past three games. Ball State ranks 13th in the nation in turnover margin (+0.89), 18th in fewest turnovers lost (11) and 20th in turnovers gained (19). I feel Ball State will generate some key points from those cough-ups, especially with senior Jahwan Edwards leading the way in the backfield. Edwards has 920 yards rushing with nine touchdowns this season, making things much easier on sophomore QB Jack Milas, who took over the starting role four games ago. Milas has 923 passing yards and six touchdowns in those games and I think he’ll like the field position he has to work with on Wednesday. 9* Best Bet |
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11-12-14 | Kent State +13 v. Bowling Green | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 54 h 6 m | Show | |
I am playing on KENT STATE. You may be a little wary of the Golden Flashes when you see their 1-8 record and see a team that hasn’t won on the road or in MAC play. But this young team hasn’t quit on its season and I believe oddsmakers are being too generous with the points for this mid-week clash. Kent State alum and second-year head coach Paul Haynes has his team continuing to fight for wins and starting roles. Twenty different Golden Flashes have seen their first start this year as the program aims at building a consistent winner. The Flashes showed their fight in last week’s 30-20 loss to Toledo. Kent State outscored the Rockets 20-14 in the second half and managed to cover as 13-point underdogs, which is no small feat considering Toledo owns the best total offense in the MAC. Now the Flashes face the worst total defense in the MAC in Bowling Green, which is sometimes overlooked considering the Falcons lead the MAC East in the standings. Kent State brings a steadily improved offense into Bowling Green, which is most evident at the O-line where that unit has only given up one sack in its last five games. Don’t be fooled by Kent State’s record here. This team is still fighting and I believe they make a strong bet with so many points on their side Wednesday night. 9* Main Event |
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11-08-14 | Alabama -6.5 v. LSU | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 52 h 12 m | Show |
I am playing on ALABAMA. The Crimson Tide have perhaps their best and most balanced offense we’ve seen in years, which is a little scary for LSU and confidence boosting for this pick. |
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11-08-14 | Notre Dame v. Arizona State -2.5 | Top | 31-55 | Win | 100 | 47 h 12 m | Show |
I am playing on ARIZONA STATE. I like the Sun Devils here and it may not be for the reasons you might think. Most folks think offense when they look at ASU and it’s no wonder. The Sun Devils own the No. 22 total offense in the nation and they’ve scored at least 38 points in four games this year. But I like them to beat the Domers on Saturday with defense. Arizona State started a little more slowly than it would’ve liked on defense but the team also had to replace nine starters on defense coming into the season. Lately the Sun Devils are coming into their own and they’ve given up an average of just 15.33 points per game over their last three. They also allowed fewer than 300 yards in each of those games in quality wins over Utah, Washington and Stanford. "I don’t think any team will score more than 20 points on us the rest of the season," said WR Jaelen Strong this week. I think Arizona State will also be able to take advantage of a Notre Dame defense that has gone from stellar in the early season to sloppy recently. The Irish are giving up an average of 37.7 points over their last three contests and they just lost starting linebacker Joe Schmidt for the season to an ankle injury. 10* PERSONAL FAVORITE |
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11-08-14 | Duke v. Syracuse +3.5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -114 | 118 h 12 m | Show |
I am playing on SYRACUSE. Last week I played against Duke when the Blue Devils traveled to Pitt and the difference between covering that game and not was a missed 26-yard field goal by Pitt’s kicker that allowed the game to go to overtime. |
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11-08-14 | Georgia -10 v. Kentucky | Top | 63-31 | Win | 100 | 118 h 3 m | Show |
I am playing on GEORGIA. Any hopes the Wildcats had of Georgia overlooking them went out the window last week when the Bulldogs took a licking from Florida 38-20 with the Bulldogs favored by 11.5 points. |
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11-07-14 | Utah State v. Wyoming +7 | 20-3 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 59 m | Show | |
I am playing on WYOMING. Utah State head coach Matt Wells spoke at his weekly press conference about this being the toughest two-week stretch of the season for the Aggies after coming off a trip to Hawaii last week, which is a big reason why I really like Wyoming here. |
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11-04-14 | Bowling Green v. Akron -6 | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 11 m | Show | |
9* Akron. Analysis to follow before 9am PST. |
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11-01-14 | Notre Dame v. Navy +14 | 49-39 | Win | 100 | 72 h 16 m | Show | |
I’m playing on the Navy Midshipmen as my 9* Shocker. The Middies face a Notre Dame team sandwiched between two high-profile matchups and are getting little respect from oddsmakers in this classic rivalry game. The Fighting Irish are coming off a controversial loss to Florida State two weeks ago and are hanging their heads heading into this matchup with Navy. Notre Dame has another nationally televised game with Arizona State next week, so it could get caught looking past the Midshipmen in what will be the Irish’s third straight road game Saturday. Navy is always dangerous due to its triple-option offense. The Middies run a breakneck pass and pound on opponents with their relentless rushing game. They enter Week 10 ranked second the nation with 352.2 yards on the ground per game and have put big points on the board, averaging just under 31 per game, making them a very dangerous underdog. Outside of the Army-Navy finale, this yearly meeting with Notre Dame is the Midshipmen’s biggest game of the year. Navy will be going all out against a Fighting Irish program ranked seventh in the country and would relish the opportunity to spoil any chances Notre Dame has of making the College Football Playoff Final Four. The Middies have knocked off the Irish in three of the past seven years, so this Navy team is not intimidated by the boys from South Bend. Notre Dame’s lack of focus and a hungry run-heavy Navy squad is why I’m playing on Navy as my 9* Shocker Saturday. |
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11-01-14 | Oklahoma State +14.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 14-48 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 15 m | Show |
10* Best Bet, Oklahoma State, analysis posted shortly ... |
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11-01-14 | Tennessee v. South Carolina -7 | Top | 45-42 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 54 m | Show |
I am playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. I like the Gamecocks here Saturday as the Vols enter hostile territory in a tough SEC night game environment in Columbia. |
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11-01-14 | East Carolina v. Temple +7.5 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 64 h 46 m | Show | |
I am playing on TEMPLE. I love the fact that Temple is getting points at home here at a time when they are fighting for bowl eligibility against one of the conference’s top teams. |
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11-01-14 | Duke v. Pittsburgh -3.5 | Top | 51-48 | Loss | -103 | 64 h 35 m | Show |
I am playing on PITT. I’m expecting Pittsburgh to bounce back after a rough game last week that saw them cough up four turnovers on their first six plays that led to a drubbing before they even realized what time it was. I expect the Panthers to be much better against a more traditional offense like Duke’s this week after facing the triple offense of Georgia Tech last week. Pitt owns the 17th ranked overall defense in the country, the sixth ranked pass defense and the 11th ranked third down conversion defense. Those are the numbers that I feel will be the deciding factors in Saturday’s game. Pitt boasts a force on the ground in James Conner, who leads the ACC with 1,079 yards and 14 TDs. I believe it’s a great recipe for the Panthers in a game that might see some wintry weather with cold temperatures and a possibility of rain or snow. Duke’s rush defense is nothing to write home about with 193 yards against per game, which I expect to be a major advantage for Pitt in controlling the pace of this contest. 10* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR |
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11-01-14 | Utah State v. Hawaii +3 | Top | 35-14 | Loss | -112 | 63 h 53 m | Show |
I am playing on HAWAII. This is a popular game on college Saturdays because bettors easily get caught up in either chasing losses or grabbing one more ‘W’ before NFL Sunday rolls around. It’s the ‘last call’ of the betting world on Saturdays with home games starting around 11 p.m. ET due to Hawaii’s time zone. Despite that, I rarely offer plays on Warriors games unless I really like them and this week is one of those games. Hawaii is getting points on home turf against a team they matchup very similarly statistically with and that’s facing the tough travel to paradise. "Those guys play with their hair on fire," Utah State Matt Wells said this week. "They play hard, they chase the football and play with tremendous effort. I know that is something [Clune] has instilled in them and demanded out of them. I think that's very, very evident when you flip on the tape." The Warriors will have an improving O-line to help them do that that is finally getting healthy after some early injuries to start the year. The O-line has given up just three sacks through its first three conference games, which will come in handy against a Utah State squad that is best at stopping the run. What the Aggies aren’t so good at is getting yards when they need them. Utah State, which is seriously depleted at the QB position, ranks 118th in the country in third down conversions and nearly dead last at 124th in fourth down conversion percentage. Utah State also ranks near the worst in the country in penalty yards per game and Hawaii has long been known to get the benefit of the doubt on penalties at Aloha Stadium. The Warriors haven't forgotten last year's 47-10 blowout loss - they'll be looking for some payback here and will be anxious to show how much they've improved. As always, the visiting team is in tough when traveling to Hawaii. Utah State planned to leave Thursday, giving them shorter prep time than usual to prepare for Saturday’s game. 10* Revenge GOY |
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10-31-14 | Cincinnati v. Tulane +4.5 | 38-14 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 24 m | Show | |
I am playing on TULANE. I believe I have a strong handle on Cincinnati’s game right now after successfully taking them to cover last week in a Friday nighter against USF. This week I don’t believe the Bearcats will be quite so lucky against the number and they even face a possible outright upset in New Orleans against the Green Wave. Cincinnati has faced a week of turmoil after backup QB Jarred Evans was suspended from the team following an arrest for assault. That leaves the Bearcats a little thin at QB where starter Gunner Kiel is suffering from sore ribs even though he’s expected to play. Kiel had his two worst games of the season when his injury was at its worst and was banged up again last week against a physical USF team. Tulane isn’t having its greatest season ever but it does have some weapons on offense, like freshman running back Sherman Badie. Badie is expected to play after looking sharp in practice this week despite a twisted ankle suffered in last week’s game. I expect him to do some damage against a Cincy defense that allows a porous 200 yards on the ground per game and 275 yards passing per game. Cincy ranks a horrid 118th in the nation on D overall, a huge reason I like Tulane to cover this week. Another reason I like the Green Wave is they are an undervalued team on the verge of pulling through despite what the scoreboard may say at times. Last week they held a 278-233 edge in total yards against UCF and won the turnover battle 4-2 despite losing the game. I like them to build off that and earn what some will consider a surprise win this week. 9* Friday Feast |
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10-30-14 | Troy +26 v. Georgia Southern | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 26 m | Show |
I am playing on TROY. At first glance, you see the Trojans are just 1-7 straight up this season and struggling in the final year for their storied coach Larry Blakeney. Upon closer inspection we see that Troy is 4-4 against the spread this year and all four of their covers came against winning teams. In short, Troy gets up for better teams and it plays down to its competition. Georgia Southern is certainly one of those better teams as the current leader of the Sun Belt Conference and I expect a big effort from the Trojans in a nationally televised Thursday night game. Georgia Southern relies almost entirely on its ground game to move the chains for 402 yards per game rushing. That’s about 50 yards more than any other team in the country on the ground. The two things I like about that are: 1. A so-so Trojans defense doesn’t have to worry much about a passing game and 2. This offense has the potential to eat a ton of time on the clock. This is the biggest spread Ga. Southern has seen all season and I see the sand falling to the bottom of the hour glass before the Eagles have a chance to cover this lofty number. Troy is working with two QBs right now under center but both are mobile and can improvise when needed. I like that factor heading into Thursday along with kickoff threat Chandler Worthy, who ranks 15th in the country in kickoff returns this season. He’s returned two kicks for touchdowns and if Troy can’t get its offense moving, it will likely often work from decent field position at least. 10* Best Bet |
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10-25-14 | Alabama v. Tennessee +17.5 | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 102 h 18 m | Show |
I am playing on TENNESSEE. You may be looking at Alabama’s win 59-0 last week – its largest margin of victory since 1979 – and wondering why I’m taking the Vols this Sunday. It’s actually because of that big win. I believe oddsmakers have set this line too high in anticipation of Tide supporters who will inevitably jump on Bama no matter what the line was set at after a win like that. I feel Tennessee’s stout defense can grind this game down to an old-fashioned SEC hit fest, leaving the spread looking way too generous for the underdog by the time the final whistle blows. The Vols own the No. 6 pass defense and the 19th overall defense in the nation. They also own the seventh ranked third down conversion defense in the land, which is an area Bama has had success this season on offense. The Vols will use a sold out crowd (and an angry one thanks to Lane Kiffin) to help keep Bama off balance on those third down spots where the Tide normally keep the chains moving. I see that leading to some promising field position and a running clock for the Vols, factors which will help them cover the number. Another element I really like here is that it t’s no secret Alabama is much less comfortable on the road than at home lately. The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the spread in their last four road outings. 10* Best Bet |
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10-25-14 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State -1 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -104 | 93 h 49 m | Show |
I am playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. I believe the Cowboys will use a deafening home crowd at the ‘Greatest American Homecoming Celebration’ this Saturday to help propel them to a win over West Virginia. Oddsmakers are anticipating the public will overreact to the Cowboys’ 42-9 loss to TCU last week, which is why OK State isn’t favored by more points here. That game was the worst of the season for the Pokes and I expect them to bounce back this week. Part of the problem in that loss was an inability to establish a running game. Oklahoma State came into the contest hoping to establish a ground presence but was ultimately stymied by TCU’s 38th nationally ranked rush defense. This week the Cowboys face a weaker West Virginia run defense that allows 167 yards rushing per game. I believe that will help Oklahoma State set up its passing game and get back to scoring points after an off week versus TCU. Another factor I love about this game is that one of the key mismatches between these two teams is in the red zone. Oklahoma State owns the 15th best red zone offense in the country while West Virginia owns the 117th ranked red zone defense. I feel that will prove extra costly for a West Virginia team that is one of the absolute worst in the country in turnover margin (-1.57) ranked 123rd. OK State - 10* Personal Favorite |
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10-25-14 | North Carolina v. Virginia -7 | 28-27 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 5 m | Show | |
I am playing on VIRGINIA. The Cavaliers have the benefit of entering this game fully refreshed off a bye while UNC is coming off two of its most emotional contests in recent years. Last week the Heels bounced back to score a touchdown with 11 seconds left to defeat Georgia Tech 48-43 and the week before they nearly upset Notre Dame in South Bend. Now they run into a much more grounded team on the road in a letdown spot. Virginia has relied on its sturdy offensive line this season, which has allowed just five sacks in seven games, good for fifth best in the nation. The Cavs also love to run the ball with a respectable 171 yards per game. I believe they’ll be able to bully a less experienced Tar Heels defense, which is not only allowing a generous 218 yards per game rushing this season but also ranks second worst in the nation in scoring defense with 43 points against per game. That’s ultimately how I see Virginia dictating this game – by using the run to control possession and ultimately topple the Tar Heels by enough points to cover. Virginia has been a bit of an ATM for its backers this year with a 5-1-1 record against the spread and they are 4-0-1 against the number at home. I believe the combination of the Cavs being at home coming off a bye week with an O-line than can set its own mandate is the winning formula for a Virginia cover. 9* Breakfast Club |
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10-25-14 | Texas +10 v. Kansas State | 0-23 | Loss | -105 | 89 h 29 m | Show | |
I am playing on TEXAS. The Longhorns are getting a bundle of points on the road in this Big 12 Conference tilt just at a time when they are starting to find their groove offensively. The Horns have piled up 74 points over their last two games after struggling for an average of just 13.5 points per game in their previous four. Quarterback Tyrone Swoopes has been a huge reason for that as he finds his rhythm since taking over the starting role. Though he had a couple of turnovers, he's coming off his best game against Iowa State (a 48-45 win) in which he threw for 321 yards and one TD and ran for 95 yards and another score on the ground. The Texas defense has been strong through most of the season, in particular in the area of getting pressure on the passer. The Longhorns have 24 sacks from 12 different players, good for 13th in the nation. I anticipate another big effort here, which will be needed against one of the best QBs in the nation, Jake Waters, for K-State. The Longhorns are coming together off the field also as players continue to buy in to the systems and philosophies of new head coach Charlie Strong. Strong dismissed nine players this season in what has been a challenging start for the Longhorns, but as his players continue to commit, we are starting to see results. I feel we are seeing a Horns team that is starting to believe it can win every game and that’s something that oddsmakers have difficulty accounting for in the point spread. 9* Shocker |
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10-24-14 | South Florida v. Cincinnati -10.5 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 72 h 10 m | Show | |
I am playing on CINCINNATI. Normally revenge wouldn't be a driving force behind a play for me but last year's meeting with USF was one that changed the whole season for the Bearcats. Cincy lost 26-20 thanks to a blocked field goal that the Bulls returned for a touchdown and a fumble returned for six points. After that, the Bearcats reeled off six straight wins and kicked their offense into high gear. That's how Cincy's offense comes into this game after scoring 75 points and gaining over 900 yards during its past two games. The games have been a bounce back to form for quarterback Gunner Kiel and there's a good reason for it. Kiel badly bruised his ribs in a 50-28 loss to Ohio State on Sept. 27 and was hit again the following week in a loss to Memphis. Those were Kiel's two worst games of the season after opening the year with 14 TD passes and just two picks in three games. Kiel threw for 64 percent or higher in all three of those games and last week he appeared to be fully back to health with a 65 percent completion percentage. I don't anticipate South Florida being able to keep pace thanks to a scoring defense that allows 29 points per game and ranks a dismal 85th in the nation. The Bulls scored just 17 points or less in five of their seven games this season and I see this game getting away from them especially where they are on the road. Cincinnati is expecting over 30,000 fans for this Friday night contest. 9* Friday Feast. |
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10-23-14 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia Tech +3 | 30-6 | Loss | -112 | 49 h 15 m | Show | |
I am playing on VIRGINIA TECH. Everyone knows Blacksburg on a Thursday night is no place for a visiting team to feel comfortable and it will be no different this week. Oddsmakers have even shown Va. Tech the disrespect of giving the Hokies points, possibly because Miami is coming off a bye. I don't believe that will make enough of a difference for the Canes, who will face a deafening crowd and wild atmosphere at Lane Stadium. Virginia Tech leads all ACC schools with 20 wins on Thursday night against just eight losses. Starting quarterback Michael Brewer even said recently one of the key reasons he transferred from Texas Tech is to play in Blacksburg on a Thursday night. Besides all of that, Virginia Tech is being undervalued because of the loss to Pittsburgh last week. One of the key reasons was a punchless running game that managed a pathetic 23 yards. A big contributor of that was the injury to freshman Marshawn Williams, who was out with a sprained ankle. That left the Hokies with little depth in the backfield after Shai Williams was lost for the season in late September. Signs are positive that Williams will return Thursday and that's not good for a Miami team that ranks 108th in the nation in tackles for loss. The Canes also rank 84th in first down defense so I foresee the Hokies using the run to set things up for them offensively - something they sorely missed last week. The Canes are 0-3 straight up and against the spread on the road this season and 3-10 against the spread against Va. Tech in the last 10 meetings. I'm not expecting any improvement in those trends on Thursday. 9* Thursday best bet |
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10-21-14 | Arkansas State v. UL-Lafayette +3 | 40-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
I’m playing on LA LAFAYETTE. The visiting team has won the last two in this series. However, I believe the home team is offering value as a small underdog here. I won with the Rajin’ Cajuns last Tuesday, in a similar role. Listed as small underdogs vs. Texas State, they won convincingly. While he won at Arkansas State last year, Louisiana Coach Hudspeth hasn’t forgotten that it was the Red Wolves who handed him his first home loss, the last time that the teams played here. The Cajuns were negative five (5-0) in the turnover category in that one, also a Tuesday game, which didn’t help matters. With a O/U line in the low/mid 50s, note that the Cajuns are 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) the last five times that they played a home game where the O/U line ranged from 49.5 to 56. While Anderson has done a fine job at Arkansas State, this is his first year as coach. Asking his team to lay points here is asking a lot. I’ll grab all the points I can get but look for Hudspeth’s crew to score another “upset.” 9* main event |
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10-18-14 | Notre Dame v. Florida State -10 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
Jameis Winston (probable) and the Seminoles offense is on a three-week stretch of dominance, and that should continue unabated against a Fighting Irish team that has been solid defensively for most of the season, but inexplicably gave up 43 points at home to North Carolina last week. The Irish are fortunate to still be unbeaten at this point, having turned the ball over nine times in the last three games. Quarterback Everett Golson has thrown four picks in his previous three contests and completed barely 50 percent of his combined passes in wins over Stanford and the Tar Heels. The Seminoles turned three Syracuse turnovers into 10 points last week, and will make Golson and Notre Dame pay for not holding on to the football. And let’s be real: this pick is mostly about the Florida State offense, which should pick apart Notre Dame’s young, suspect secondary. The Seminoles have racked up 1,489 yards of total offense over their last three games, coinciding with Winston’s return to the lineup. They’re also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games, and have won their last 10 contests at Doak Campbell Stadium by an average of 41.8 points. I expect Winston to play and I expect a double-digit win. 10* - Main Event |
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10-18-14 | Oklahoma State +9 v. TCU | Top | 9-42 | Loss | -115 | 114 h 33 m | Show |
I’m playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. The Cowboys have yet to play a bad game this season - they gave top-ranked Florida State all it could handle before falling just short in the season opener, then reeled off five straight victories while scoring more than 35 points four times. Take them as an underdog against TCU? Don’t mind if I do. From a trends perspective, Oklahoma State has plenty going for it. It’s 21-6-1 ATS in its last 28 October games, and 7-3 ATS in its previous 10 conference tilts. The Cowboys are in the top 30 nationally in points per game, and have held opponents to 20 or fewer points in three of their last four games. Simply put, they’re one of the most balanced teams out there - not only in the Big 12, but in the NCAA. The Horned Frogs have an impressive offence in their own right, but they’ve been put in their place on the defensive end after a strong showing against a trio of pretenders. TCU surrendered 94 points against Oklahoma and Baylor, and should face a similar challenge against quarterback Daxx Garman and a relentless Cowboys attack. And while Horned Frogs junior QB Trevone Boykin is a talent, he completed just 41-of-85 passes against the Sooners and Bears - and that won’t fly against Oklahoma State. 10* - Best Bet |
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10-18-14 | Texas A&M v. Alabama -11.5 | Top | 0-59 | Win | 100 | 114 h 38 m | Show |
I’m playing on ALABAMA. Saturday’s matchup against visiting Texas A&M is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions, and until I see Kenny Hill and the Aggies prove they can play four solid quarters against quality opposition, they can’t be trusted - especially in hostile Tuscaloosa. Texas A&M’s once-formidable offense has all but disappeared over the first three quarters of its last three games, registering just 38 points over that span. Hill and the boys can’t seem to get things going until the fourth quarter - and if they wait that long against the Crimson Tide, they could find themselves down by four touchdowns - and no team comes back from that kind of deficit at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama looked shaky at times in a loss to Ole Miss and a narrow win over Arkansas, but I’m not betting against the Tide at home. Especially not with the Aggies having surrendered 83 points over their last two games and boasting a 1-6 ATS mark in their last seven conference games. This is also Alabama’s lone home game in a six-week stretch, so you know they’re going to come out firing. 10* - Personal Favorite |
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10-18-14 | Texas-San Antonio +8 v. Louisiana Tech | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 110 h 41 m | Show | |
I’m playing on TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO. Write off the Roadrunners at your peril; while their record is nothing to get pumped about, they’ve been in three of their four losses - a rout at the hands of Oklahoma State the only exception - and have an impressive road win over Houston and a home triumph over Florida International to their credit. Aside from the one-sided loss to the Cowboys and a drubbing at the hands of Marshall last season, UTSA has been a sensational road pick for the majority of the past three seasons. The Roadrunners went 5-1 ATS on the road in 2012 and repeated the feat in 2013; while they’re just 1-2 ATS away from Texas-San Antonio in 2014, they came within two points of covering in the loss at Florida Atlantic. I like teams with proven track records, and UTSA has two-plus years of success from which to draw. On the flip side, we have the Bulldogs. And the Bulldogs have not been a strong cover at home; in fact, they’re just 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games at Joe Aillet Stadium. And they haven’t just failed to cover - they’ve missed the mark significantly, failing to come within a touchdown of covering in five of their last eight home games. Louisiana Tech has been a monumental disappointment at home for most of the past two-plus seasons - and I see no reason why that won’t continue Saturday. 9* - Shocker |
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10-18-14 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma -8 | Top | 31-30 | Loss | -110 | 110 h 59 m | Show |
I’m playing on OKLAHOMA. The Sooners come into this one ready to prove that last week’s win over Texas wasn’t a fluke, even though the numbers suggest it may have been. Oklahoma remains a contender for the Big 12 title despite struggling in back-to-back games, and recent trends suggest they should have little trouble handling visiting Kansas State on Saturday. The Sooners have played down to the level of their competition at times over the past few years, but they’ve also shown an innate ability to get up for good teams. Oklahoma is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against teams with winning records. And the Sooners don’t let bad games affect them moving forward, having gone 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after surrendering more than 450 yards in their previous outing. Don’t expect Oklahoma’s defensive struggles to continue through the weekend. The Wildcats have played just one road game this season, and came nowhere near covering in that one, escaping with a 32-28 victory over Iowa State despite going in as an 11 1/2-point favorite. Kansas State boasts one of the more potent running games in the conference - averaging 4 1/2 yards per carry with 18 touchdowns - but could have fits against an Oklahoma defense limiting opponents to 3.2 yards per carry. And if the Wildcats can’t get the run game going, it could be a long day in Norman. 10* - Breakfast Club |
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10-17-14 | Temple v. Houston -7 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 96 h 31 m | Show | |
I’m playing on HOUSTON. The Cougars have had an up-and-down season, but have proven to be a tough match against good teams and clubs within their conference. Temple fits both criteria - and will be favored Friday night despite trailing in the fourth quarter before escaping with a home win over lowly Tulsa a week ago. Several trends favor the Cougars; they’re 15-6 against the spread in their last 21 games, 6-2 ATS in their last eight against teams with winning records and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 contests against American Athletic Conference opponents. And Houston is on a high after gutting out a 28-24 victory over the host Memphis Tigers last week despite going in as a 7 1/2-point underdog. Temple entered as a huge fave against the Golden Hurricane, but needed a pair of P.J. Walters touchdown passes - his only two of the game - to avoid an embarrassing home loss. Tulsa racked up 438 yards of total offence against the Owls, and had the ball for more than 36 1/2 minutes. And Temple dropped a 22-13 home decision to the Cougars last season, part of a 1-7 conference showing - so don’t be fooled by the fast start this year. 9* - Friday Feast |
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10-16-14 | Utah v. Oregon State +3 | 29-23 | Loss | -105 | 72 h 27 m | Show | |
I’m playing on OREGON STATE. The Beavers are coming off a much-needed win following an emotional win over the Colorado Buffaloes, and have been installed as home underdogs against a Utah team that needed a last-minute field goal to avoid squandering a 10-point fourth-quarter lead against UCLA two weeks ago. Few teams have taken better advantage of a bye week than Oregon State, which is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games following the rest period. Expect the week off to have helped the vaunted Beavers defense get back on track after allowing 66 points in its last two games; despite the recent hiccups, Oregon State still ranks second in the Pac-12 in yards against (331.4) and represents the toughest test Utah has faced this year. The Utes looked strong in their win over the Bruins, but that certainly hasn’t been the trend in conference play. Utah is just 4-10 in its last 14 games against conference foes, and 1-4 ATS in its last five meetings with Oregon State. Add in the fact that the Beavers have allowed just four passing TDs and fewer than 200 yards per game through the air, and Oregon State is a strong play Thursday night. 9* - Thursday Roast |
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10-14-14 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Texas State | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show | |
I’m playing on LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE. The Ragin’ Cajuns got a monkey off their backs with last week’s thrilling victory over Georgia State, and how has the privilege of squaring off against a Texas State side that needed everything it had to beat the woeful Idaho Vandals at home. Coming off three straight one-sided losses, Louisiana-Lafayette rebounded nicely behind 119 receiving yards and two touchdowns from Jamal Robinson and a much-needed boost from quarterback Terrance Broadway. The senior signal caller has had a miserable year, but may be turning the corner after going 20-of-26 for 216 yards and the two touchdown passes to Robinson; he added 35 rushing yards on five carries and was generally difficult to contain. The Bobcats haven’t looked good since the season opener, losing to Navy and Illinois before eking out victories over two teams - Tulsa and Idaho - with a combined 1-11 record. Terrence Franks bailed Texas State out against the Vandals, erupting for 284 rushing yards and three touchdowns to overshadow a dismal performance from Tyler Jones (11-for-20, 76 yards, TD, two INTs). Franks should expect the going to be a lot tougher Tuesday against a Ragin’ Cajuns defense that limited Georgia State to 138 rushing yards on 37 carries. With Broadway rolling, Jones struggling and history on ULL’s side - they waxed Texas State 48-24 last season - expect the Cajuns to come out firing. 9* - Best Bet |
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10-11-14 | LSU -1 v. Florida | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 138 h 54 m | Show |
I am playing on LSU. The Gators are in a bit of a mess entering this week while LSU will be hungry to rebound after a humbling loss to Auburn last week. Florida’s offense has been nothing to brag about amid quarterback struggles this season. But last week it appeared for a fleeting moment like they had a solution. Backup QB Treon Harris came off the bench and was just efficient enough to propel the Gators to a 10-9 win over Tennessee. The bad news for Florida is the team has placed him on interim suspension following sexual assault allegations against Harris that came on Monday. The incident allegedly took place in the wee hours of Sunday morning and the Gators have been dealing with all the distractions and the media circus that come with that kind of controversy. It means Florida will return to Jeff Driskel, who couldn’t find a Gator in the Everglades right now. He hasn’t been able to throw for even 100 yards in each of his last two games with one measly touchdown pass and five interceptions combined in those games. LSU has been having its own QB issues but the Tigers couldn’t have caught Florida at a better time here. LSU is also 4-1 against the spread its last five games coming off a straight up loss. Coach Les Miles knows how to get his team to rebound and I strongly believe LSU will take down the Gators in the Swamp. 10* Personal Favorite |
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10-11-14 | Houston +7.5 v. Memphis | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 138 h 31 m | Show | |
I’m playing on Houston as my 9* Saturday Shocker. The Cougars are coming off a heartbreaking loss last Thursday and have had extra time to prepare for the Memphis Tigers in Week 7. Houston has officially named Greg Ward Jr. its starting quarterback for Saturday, giving the playmaking sophomore his first career start. Ward stepped into last Thursday’s game against Central Florida with the Cougars trailing 17-6 in place of former starter John O’Korn and brought Houston to within a goal-line fumble of a comeback victory. Ward went 10 for 17 for 116 yards in just four drives. The nod to Ward and some offensive tweaks should wake up this Houston offense that failed to score a touchdown for the first time since 2003 last week. The Cougars do have the firepower to put up big numbers, having scored 47 points in wins over FCS Grambling State and UNLV already this season and face a Memphis team primed for a letdown in Week 7. The Tigers are riding high after an upset victory at Cincinnati last week, winning 41-14 as 3-point road underdogs. However, that win is a bit overblown with the Bearcats playing well below their standards in 2014. Memphis will run into a rejuvenated Cougars offense and a defense that has allowed only 18.2 points per game on an average of 313.6 yards against. That new-found balance on both sides of the ball is why I’m playing on Houston as my 9* Saturday Shocker. |
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10-11-14 | Penn State v. Michigan -1 | Top | 13-18 | Win | 100 | 138 h 49 m | Show |
I am playing on MICHIGAN. The Wolverines just might come into this game with the biggest home edge in all of college football this week. This will be the Wolverines’ first Big Ten night game in Michigan Stadium’s 88-year history and they’ll be playing it with huge revenge motivation after Penn State won and covered the last five meetings in the series. This is only the third home night game in Michigan’s history and the school set an attendance record each of the previous two occurences. I believe a hostile crowd of over 110,000 will make life miserable for Penn State on Saturday and the Nittany Lions will fall short in an old fashioned style Big Ten battle where two great defenses will gut it out. There isn’t much to separate these two on defense but where Michigan has a key advantage is the Wolverines are 15-for-15 in red zone opportunities this year. That makes them only one of five schools in the country to be perfect in that category. In a game where I anticipate limited red zone opportunities, I like Michigan to fulfill what the home crowd is looking for on Saturday. 10* Big Ten GOM |
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10-11-14 | North Carolina +16.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 43-50 | Win | 100 | 134 h 11 m | Show |
I am playing on NORTH CAROLINA. I believe there is a spot here to fade Notre Dame at a time where this very public Irish team is being lauded in the media and visions of national championships and Heisman Trophies are dancing in the heads of Irish supporters. The Tar Heels are 0-5 against the spread this year, but I see a quickly improving team that’s getting a generous helping of points on Saturday. Their weakness has been on defense – mainly its youth - where they brought an inexperienced batch of starters to the field. Things are starting jell now and last week they allowed the fewest number of yards since their season opening victory against Liberty. The Heels held Virginia Tech to a respectable 357 yards and eventually it was the offense’s three turnovers in bad spots, all of which led to touchdowns, that doomed UNC. I believe UNC will take better care of the ball this week and throw some things at Notre Dame that will keep the Irish guessing. The Heels say they’ll stick with a dual quarterback rotation of Marquise Williams and Mitch Trubisky. They’ll use the two to continue to run a no-huddle, up-tempo offense that aims to keep the Irish unsettled on defense and I believe that will ultimately help them cover this big number. 10* Best Bet |
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10-10-14 | Washington State v. Stanford -17 | 17-34 | Push | 0 | 116 h 50 m | Show | |
I am playing on STANFORD. In this matchup of offense versus defense, I just don’t feel Washington State can score enough to cover the number against what is probably the best defense in college football. Stanford ranks near the top of the nation in so many defensive categories it’s almost boring. They rank first in scoring defense, second in total defense, second in passing yards allowed, third in red zone defense… and you get the picture. It’s really because of some gritty competition (USC, Washington, Notre Dame) that the Cardinal are just 2-3 against the spread this year. The Cougars boast the best passing game in the nation and QB Connor Halliday broke an NCAA record with 734 passing yards in a 59-60 deflating loss to Cal last week. But the Cougars haven’t seen a defense like Stanford yet and I’m not expecting a shootout on Thursday. That’s not good for a WSU team that allows 35.2 points per game while Stanford is the only team in the nation allowing fewer than 10 per game on average. The Cardinal also haven’t allowed more than 20 in 12 straight regular season contests. I also expect to see a suffocating Stanford ‘D’ to squeeze some turnovers against a squad that has a -7 ratio in turnover margin this season, which ranks a dismal 114th in the nation. I forsee Stanford dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in this game and I believe they’ll earn their seventh straight victory over the Cougars by a decisive number. 9* Friday Main Event |
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10-09-14 | BYU v. Central Florida -3 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 90 h 27 m | Show | |
I am playing on CENTRAL FLORIDA. UCF is in another great Thursday night spot this week as the Golden Knights enter this matchup on a two-game straight up and against the spread winning streak. I believe it’s just the start of a hot run for UCF and I feel that oddsmakers haven’t fully adjusted to it yet. Last week I took UCF to cover on the road against Houston where they picked up a 17-12 win as underdogs. One of the factors I loved about that game is UCF entered that game with fully charged batteries coming off a bye week that followed an exhausting start to the season that no team in any conference would envy. The Knights opened the year by suffering a tough defeat to Penn State in Ireland then took a big loss at Mizzou against tough SEC competition. Now the Knights are gathering steam and their defense is leading the way with a stifling 19 points against and 11 sacks over their past two games. They rank in a tie for 16th in the nation in sacks per game this season, which is a key advantage to Thursday’s game. BYU ranks 110th in sacks allowed in college footbal this year with 15 against. What’s worse for the Cougars is they just lost their star starting quarterback , Taysom Hill, for the season to a knee injury in a stunning home defeat to Utah State last week. His replacement, Christian Stewart, struggled with the offense by leading it to just two field goal drives while throwing three interceptions in the second half. And with that the Cougars are suddenly in big trouble after Hill had them off to a 3-0 start. A couple of other quick reasons I like UCF here: BYU ranks second worst in the FBS with 10.6 penalties per game and has failed to cover in the spread in three straight games. 9* Thursday Roast |
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10-04-14 | LSU v. Auburn -7.5 | Top | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 94 h 26 m | Show |
I am playing on AUBURN. Auburn Tigers faithful have been waiting since 2010 to taste another victory against SEC West foe LSU and I believe they won’t have to wait any longer than this weekend. Auburn is in a perfect spot here with a drastically improved, stifling defensive unit that will face a freshman quarterback about to make his first college start. Auburn ranks better statistically in just about every defensive category compared to last year’s team, ranking in the top 20 in the nation in total yards, rushing yards, and points allowed. LSU, meanwhile, hasn’t seen the consistency it would like on offense which is why the Tigers are starting Brandon Harris. Harris led seven touchdown drives last game – but that was against New Mexico State in a friendly atmosphere. I’m anticipating he’ll learn some tough lessons on Saturday. 10* Personal Favorite |
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10-04-14 | Vanderbilt v. Georgia -33.5 | 17-44 | Loss | -106 | 92 h 17 m | Show | |
I am playing on GEORGIA. The big spread is nothing to be afraid of here with Georgia simply outmatching Vanderbilt by a significant margin in nearly every aspect. The Bulldogs will also have revenge on their minds after Vanderbilt upset them last year 31-27 and won’t be showing any mercy. Georgia owns the nation’s 9th best rushing attack and will go up against a Commodores defense that ranks near the bottom of the SEC by allowing 161 yards on the ground per game. Georgia also ranks 8th in the nation with 45.8 points per game while Vandy gets stomped on for 34.8 points per game. That puts Vandy at a lowly 94th in the country in that category and it’s not just against SEC competition - they gave up over 30 points each to mediocre Massachusetts and Temple. It gets worse for Vandy because Georgia also ranks in the top 30 in the country in kick returns and punt returns so I expect the Dogs to be starting with solid field position all day. It’s an ugly scene for Vandy this year and they’re in for another rough day on Saturday. In a poll this week on a popular Vanderbilt sports site, 57 percent of respondents said Vandy would win zero to 2 games this season. 8* Blue Marlin |
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10-04-14 | Baylor v. Texas +17 | 28-7 | Loss | -115 | 91 h 17 m | Show | |
I am playing on TEXAS. I see a ton of value in the underestimated Longhorns who are being generously handed a pile of points at home against in-state rival Baylor. There are a couple main reasons Texas isn’t being given much of a chance on Saturday, namely that Baylor has the No. 1 overall offense in the nation and Texas has been slow to jell under new head coach Charlie Strong. But I believe this will be the last time we see the Longhorns getting overlooked. I feel they are a team that’s turning the corner on its season and it starts with an incredible defense. Texas is surrendering just 17 points per game and has nine interceptions, second most in the nation. Those factors haven’t gone unnoticed by oddsmakers, who are respecting the Texas D unit by setting a total that is easily the lowest Baylor has seen this year. Another good sign for Texas bettors is that for two straight weeks Texas has shown it can cover the point spread with a passing game while opponents Kansas and UCLA loaded up the box. QB Tyrone Swoopes has thrown for four touchdowns with no interceptions and been efficient enough to earn bettors their money through the air. 9* |
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10-04-14 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +8 | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 91 h 16 m | Show | |
I am playing on NORTHWESTERN. This isn’t the same Northwestern squad we saw stumble out of the gates for two straight losses this year. This well-coached team has quickly found its stride and I see oddsmakers having a little trouble keeping up. The Wildcats sloppily allowed 54 points through their first two games in losses to Cal and NIU. The problem wasn’t the talent on defense, it just needed some time. That unit absolutely dominated Penn State last week in a 29-6 victory in a game that saw plenty of highly recruited freshman and sophomores shuffle in and out of the lineup. Ten Wildcats earned at least half a tackle for loss against PSU and they have now forced six turnovers over the past two weeks, both wins. No doubt Northwestern’s defense will have to find a way to slow Wisconsin’s run game - but with a young team that’s come a long way in a short period, I like that they will be able to have a singular focus on Saturday with some points in their back pocket. 9* |
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10-04-14 | Oklahoma v. TCU +5 | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 91 h 16 m | Show | |
I’m playing on Texas Christian. The Horned Frogs have had this Big 12 battle circled on the calendar since the schedule was inked, and planned accordingly with a bye the week prior in order to fine tune their sets before the program’s biggest game of the year. This TCU defense is one of the finest in the nation, currently ranking second overall in scoring defense and yards against. It locked down Minnesota in Week 2, forcing five turnovers – 3 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries – and then shutout Southern Methodist the next week, again causing chaos with one INT and two more fumbles. Oklahoma is a major step up in competition but this Horned Frog defense isn’t just beating up on cupcake opponents. Gary Patterson has built the foundation of his program on stingy ‘D’, which has kept TCU among the Top 25 in defensive prowess in recent years. Last season, the Horned Frogs narrowly missed an upset over OU in Norman, losing 20-17 as 10-point underdogs, limiting the Sooners to 20 first downs and forcing them to go 3 for 13 on third down. Texas Christian, fueled by a frenzied crowd inside Amon G. Carter Stadium, will again serve as a massive road block for this powerful Oklahoma attack, giving its offense extra chances with the football. The Horned Frogs have some playmakers on offense, including dual-threat QB Trevone Boykin, who will likely toss him name in the Heisman conversation when this game is said and done. The TCU defense will make key stops and probably force a couple takeaways, opening up the door for the Horned Frogs offense to keep this game tight on the scoreboard, which is why I’m going with TCU as my 9* play. |
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10-04-14 | Marshall v. Old Dominion +17.5 | 56-14 | Loss | -105 | 88 h 30 m | Show | |
I’m playing on OLD DOMINION. The relatively unknown Monarchs are in a fantastic spot here this Saturday getting a pile of points at home against a conference foe. If you hadn’t noticed that Old Dominion transitioned to the FBS this year, you’re probably not alone. That means you also might not know this team has a die-hard following in Norfolk, Virginia where the Monarchs incredibly have 39 straight sellouts at Foreman Field which holds 20,000. Old Dominion has already beaten defending conference champ Rice and hung with N.C. State to open the season. Make no mistake though, the Monarchs win with offense or not at all. Fortunately they have an incredible dual threat talent at quarterback in senior Taylor Heinicke, who uses a steady ground game to distribute the ball to whichever receiver happens to be open. Five receivers have over 100 yards this year and they’ve marched down field for 124 first downs this season. That would be good for 11th in the nation if they had officially completed the transition to FBS. Marshall plays a similar high-flying style to ODU’s and has over 40 points in every game so far, which is why this total opened in the 70s. I’m anticipating the scoreboard to be blazing sparks in a closely contested shootout on Saturday. 9* Breakfast Club |
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10-02-14 | Central Florida +3.5 v. Houston | 17-12 | Win | 100 | 48 h 50 m | Show | |
I am playing on CENTRAL FLORIDA. The Golden Knights are just starting to come together after a grueling 0-2 start to the season that started against Penn State in Ireland and then saw them travel to face the SEC’s Missouri Tigers. UCF is coming off a bye week that followed a 41-7 win over buttercup Bethune-Cookman, which is just what it needed before opening conference play at Houston Thursday night. Prior to the Bethune-Cookman game, the Knights didn’t have a rushing game to speak of with no one running for more than 34 yards in each of its first two contests. That was especially troublesome because it put added pressure on the throwing game of first-year starting quarterback, sophomore Justin Holman. William Stanback rushed for 104 yards on just 15 carries versus Bethune Cookman and it is the ground game where UCF provides bettors with a huge edge here that is being overlooked by the public. The Knights rank just 117th out of 125 FBS teams in rushing, but I believe that’s about to change. An offensive line that lost three starters from last year is just starting to jell and it should take advantage of a porous Houston rush defense that’s allowing a sloppy 174.5 yards rushing per game so far. UCF is 4-0 against the spread in its last four Thursday night games and I expect that to be 5-0 after this week. 9* Main Event |
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09-27-14 | Duke v. Miami (Fla) -7 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 82 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. Anyone that was expecting an early season drop off from Duke after the Blue Devils won the ACC Coastal last year has to be scratching their head. Then again the level of competition hasn't been too great for David Cutcliffe's team, which is now 4-0 SU after a 47-13 win over Tulane last week. Things definitely get tougher this week as Duke visits Coral Gables to play a Hurricanes team that will a) be out for revenge and b) angry after losing last week at Nebraska. The revenge comes from a 48-30 loss last year in Durham. Miami was coming off back to back losses there and were without Duke Johnson, who got injured in the Florida State game. Before last year, Miami had not lost to Duke going all the way back to 1976. Last week's loss to Nebraska saw Miami get run over and commit five personal foul penalties in the second half alone. The penalties can be corrected. The poor run defense could be an issue, but at least they won't be up against Ameer Abdullah again. The big difference for Miami on offense this year compared to last is the presence of their own running back Johnson. So far, he is averaging 6.1 yards per carry. Had the team not fallen behind in both losses, Johnson could perhaps have been used more effectively. QB Brad Kaaya has steadily improved over the course of four games. The freshman has thrown for over 300 yards each of the last two games. Against Nebraska, he was 28 of 42 for a career best 359 yards. Though one-point away from being 4-0 ATS, the competition just hasn't been that great for Duke, who has played Elon, Troy, Kansas and Tulane. While the stats may not support Miami being the favorite here, I'll still side with their superior athleticism and individual matchup advantages. 10* personal favorite. |
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09-27-14 | Stanford v. Washington +8 | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 79 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. This is a game that I expect to go down to the wire. Washington has played Stanford tough each of the last two years, including a 17-13 upset at home in 2012. Last year's game was 31-28 in favor of Stanford, but it was UW that held the 489 to 279 edge in total yards. They covered as eight-point underdogs. Now, we have a similar line, only this time in Seattle. Seems like a pretty good value to me. I know it's coach Chris Petersen's first year, but the Huskies are 4-1 ATS their last five as home dogs. Washington has started 4-0 for Petersen, which is the first time a coach has started that well at the school in over a century. It wasn't easy last week as they actually trailed Georgia State 14-0 (as five TD favorites!) before closing the game on a 45-0 run during which they would outgain their opponent 231 to 73. Winning the turnover margin, 4-0, did the Huskies a lot of favors obviously last week. Personally, I'm not putting a ton of stock into that early deficit. I had Washington the week previous when they blew out Illinois 44-19. Stanford is off a bye. Both wins this year have been shutouts. But they have suffered a very frustrating loss, to USC, even though they moved the ball well in that game. Coming off the bye, naturally you would expect the Cardinal to be "amped up." But those who have played in Husky Stadium aren't shy about letting you know that it's one of the toughest places to play in the entire country, if you're the road team. A young Stanford offensive line could struggle Saturday afternoon. Washington is 19-3 straight up its last 22 home games. 10* best bet. |
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09-27-14 | Kent State +27 v. Virginia | 13-45 | Loss | -109 | 78 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm playing on KENT STATE. When you look at the size of this pointspread, obviously I can't really make a case for Kent State to win this game. But I can make a case for taking the points. The favorite, Virginia, has certainly proven itself to be an improved team this year. They played UCLA tough (probably should have won) and also upset Louisville. But hitting the road for the first time saw them lose last week, 41-33, against BYU. Again, they did cover in defeat to improve to 4-0 ATS this season. But a record like that can lead to an overreaction in the marketplace. That's what we have here. Bettors quickly jumped on the Cavaliers here, taking them to nearly a four touchdown favorite. That is simply too many points. Those playing Virginia may have forgotten that this is a team with just four SU wins in its last 26 games over FBS competition. Kent State is just looking for a win. They've played three games, lost them all, and failed to cover the spread every time. Perhaps you remember that I played against them in their season opener, a 17-14 loss to MAC rival Ohio. I couldn't believe the Golden Flashes were laying points there. After a 23-13 loss to South Alabama at home, Kent went on the road to play Ohio State and as you'd expect the results were ugly. They fell 66-0 in Columbus and were outgained 628 yards to 126. But the good news is they've had a week to recover from that humiliation. I'd expect that with the extra week to prepare, they will come out strong Saturday. Playing on the road will be tough, but KSU isn't likely to have the same amount of attention from the Virginia players and coaching staff that next week's opponent, Pittsburgh, will. That should allow them to hang around and cover this number. 9* |
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09-27-14 | MINNESOTA v. Michigan -11 | 30-14 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MICHIGAN. How bad has it gotten for these Wolverines? In two words: real bad. Last week's 26-10 home loss to Utah places coach Brady Hoke firmly on the hot seat. Another loss this week, or even a closer game than expected, and the cries for Hoke's job would grow louder. Lucky for Michigan, they will be playing Minnesota. This is an opponent that the Wolverines have beaten six straight times - by an average of 28 points per game. Last year's result was 42-13. Minnesota is unfortunate in that they have to travel to the Big House in back to back years. The Gophers have won just twice in Ann Arbor since 1978. Michigan may have some real problems on offense, but not on defense. Their stop unit held Notre Dame and Utah both under 300 total yards. Minnesota brings a pretty one-dimensional offensive attack, so the Wolverines will be able to focus on stopping the run. In last week's win over San Jose State, Gophers quarterback Chris Streveler attempted just seven passes and completed one of them for only seven yards. There is some uncertainly at the QB position this week as Streveler is only playing because of an injury to starter Mitch Leidner. If healthly, coach Jerry Kill has said Leidner will play. But the last game he completed, the team through just 11 times for 67 yards. That was against Middle Tennessee. The game Leidner got hurt, against TCU, saw the Gophers score only seven points. The Michigan defense has not allowed more than 210 passing yards in a game this year. Look for them to contain a one-dimemsional Minnesota attack. Hoke can take solace in one thing. Even Rich Rodriguez beat Minnesota the only time he faced them (2008). That was during the worst year in the history of Michigan football. If Michigan can hold on to the football (10 turnovers L3 games), then they should be just fine here. Under Hoke, the Wolverines won their first 10 Big Ten home games before losing the last two. 9*. |
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09-27-14 | Maryland v. Indiana -4.5 | 37-15 | Loss | -100 | 76 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Hoosiers are off a big win last week, beating an SEC team (Missouri) on the road. The same could be said for Maryland, who beat old ACC foe Syracuse, also on the road. So both teams will have to be on guard for a letdown. Playing at home, Indiana is more apt to overcome any kind of hangover in what is the Big 10 opener for both schools. This is actually the first ever Big 10 game for Maryland. But will they be too hyped? There is also the chance the players could be looking ahead towards next week's home game vs. Ohio State. Indiana is known for being being a basketball school. No one will dispute this. But the football program is hungry for its first bowl bid since 2007. That year's appearance in the Insight Bowl is the one time they've played in a bowl going all the way back to 1993. Winning a game like this one, which again is at home, would go a long way to getting the team to six wins. History says the Big 10 schedule won't go well; IU has just 16 conference wins the past 10 seasons. There's also a sense of pride in not wanting to lose to the conference's new arrival. This will be a "different kind" of Big 10 game than we are accustomed to seeing. Two experienced teams that can score plenty of points. It's a matchup that Indiana is suited to win. The Hoosiers have a running back Tevin Coleman that leads the entire nation in rushing yards per game with 189.7. Coleman could be in for a big day facing a defense that's giving up nearly 200 yards per game on the ground. I'll call for Coleman to be the difference maker for an Indiana offense that has scored 73 points its last two games. Though they won last week, Maryland was outgained by Syracuse (589-369) and had nine less first downs (26 to 17). An 88-yard interception return that went for a touchdown swung the game right before the half. If Syracuse had scored there, it could have been a very different game. The week before, the Terrapins found themselves trailing by as many as 22 points and allowed almost 700 total yards vs. West Virginia. 9* |
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09-27-14 | Northwestern +10.5 v. Penn State | 29-6 | Win | 100 | 74 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NORTHWESTERN. Northwestern was a team I played against at the start of the season. They were laying more than a touchdown and lost outright, at home, to California. Then they lost at home to Northern Illinois, again when they were laying points. Finally, after a bye, Pat Fitzgerald's team finally won a game, albeit against Western Illinois. Now the Wildcats find themselves in the underdog role for the first time this season. That has a lot to do with the fact the team is just 2-9 SU its last 11 games. It also has to do with the fact they are playing at unbeaten Penn State. Before last season's debacle, Northwestern was 12-4 against the spread taking points on the road. They were just 1-2 ATS last year in that role, although one of the non-covers came in a 17-10 overtime loss at Iowa where they were getting three points. That was one of four straight games decided by eight points or less (two in OT, one other on a hail mary) the Wildcats would lose. Penn State is the only Big 10 team with a conference win as they spoiled Rutgers debut in the conference with a 13-10 victory. In addition to that game, which saw the Nittany Lions rally back from a 10-0 halftime deficit, PSU has one other close win. That was in the season opener, over in Dublin, where a last second field goal was the difference in a 26-24 final over UCF. While on one hand, you have to tip your cap to James Franklin for starting his career in Happy Valley with four straight wins. But this team could easily be 2-2. Each team is accustomed to playing close games. Of Northwestern's last 11, seven have been one score games. The same is true for six of Penn State's last 11. While Northwestern is just 1-6 SU in their "close" games and Penn State is 5-1 SU in theirs, the pointspread here takes care of the difference. 9* breakfast club. |
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09-27-14 | Tennessee v. Georgia -17 | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -106 | 74 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA. If the current number holds, this would be the largest pointspread in the history of the Georgia-Tennessee rivalry. Frankly, it's indicative of the way this SEC East matchup has gone in recent years. Georgia has won four years in a row, and while the last three have been pretty close games, this one figures to be a blowout. The Bulldogs come into this game off a 66-0 beatdown of Troy that saw them run for 367 yards, their most ever under coach Mark Richt. That's with Heisman candidate Todd Gurley running the ball only six times. So Gurley will be at full strength here and that's bad news for a Tennessee team that's coming off a 34-10 loss to Oklahoma. In doing so, the Vols allowed 7.4 yards per carry to a freshman running back. The Volunteers had an off-week after losing to OU, but I don't see it helping much against a far superior opponent. This has been a program on the decline for some time. Tennessee just can't hang with the big boys anymore. They did upset South Carolina last season, but also lost to Oregon, Florida, Alabama, Missouri and Auburn all by two touchdowns or more. Tennessee is a young team dealing with injuries. That's a bad combo when heading "between the hedges." Two of the team's top five receivers may not play here, which would be a crippling blow. It's already been confirmed that Von Pearson will not play in this game. Additionally, no team in America has played more true freshman this season than the Vols have. They've sent 22 such players onto the field after just four games. I've also been impressed with Georgia QB Hutson Mason, who is completing 71.2 percent of his passes this year. The Bulldogs are going to be just too much for the Vols. 10* main event |
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09-25-14 | Texas Tech +14 v. Oklahoma State | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 35 h 51 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TEXAS TECH. Both of these Big 12 schools were expected to take a step back this year. Both have started 2-1, but looking at the two schedules that should have been expected. With conference play now getting underway, we will now be able to get a true measure of both squads. No matter how their seasons play out, I just don't see Oklahoma State as being basically two touchdowns better than Texas Tech, even in Stillwater. The Red Raiders have yet to cover a game this season. That's probably why they're getting such little respect from the oddsmakers. They lost their last game, at home, 49-28 to Arkansas. Oklahoma State's only loss came on a neutral field against #1 Florida State. Though that was a loss, it definitely earned the Cowboys plenty of respect in the marketplace. OSU has also beaten Texas Tech five straight times and the last four have all been blowouts. Last year they won 52-34 in Lubbock. That was a tough situation though for Kliff Kingsbury's charges. They were coming off their first loss of the season the week prior at Oklahoma. Even though the two wins came against Missouri State and UT-San Antonio, what makes Oklahoma State's strong start so surprising is that they returned so few starters from last year's team. Obviously, you'd still expect them to win those last two games. But it was the surprising showing vs. the Seminoles that caught most off-guard. Not to rain on Mike Gundy's parade, but the Cowboys did have an entire offseason to prepare for that game vs. Florida State. The players were also very motivated to be playing the #1 ranked team in the country. I don't see their motivation level being as high this week against a team the seniors are already 3-0 SU/ATS against. This will also only be the 2nd career start for OSU quarterback Daxx Garman. It's his first real test. That's something to keep an eye on. Texas Tech is 10-4-1 ATS following a double digit loss at home. 9* main event. |
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09-25-14 | Appalachian State +19 v. Georgia Southern | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing on APPALACHIAN STATE. I've never been afraid to play "lesser known" teams if I think there's value (the money's "always green") and that's what I see here with Appalachian State playing Georgia Southern. Appalachian State will always be known for that upset of Michigan back in 2007. The Mountaineers are now a FBS program and somewhat ironically made the move coming off their first losing season since 1993. Also ironic is that they began this year, their 1st at the FBS level, with a 52-14 loss at Michigan. What I see here is their opponent, Georgia Southern, getting way too much respect because of narrow losses at North Carolina State and Georgia Tech. The Eagles are also a FBS-newbie and have "made it look easy" against this level of competition, going 3-0 ATS including a big 28-6 road win at South Alabama last Saturday. They also destroyed Savannah State 83-9 in the second game of the year. Appalachian State owns a big win of its own against a former FCS brethren, Campbell. Coming off a bye, they played Southern Miss tough, but ultimately lost on the road by a point as three-point favorites. Yes, Southern Miss won only one game last year. But I don't think that the Mountaineers should have been favored there. That being said, they did outgain USM 455 to 329 and finished the game with 13 more first downs. They also dominated the time of possession. Had it not been for three field goals that were either missed or blocked , or a fumble inside the 10-yard line, Appalachian State would have most likely won. This is Appalachian State's first ever Sun Belt game (their new conference). Georgia Southern won theirs last week. There's probably going to be tremendous motivation to "show they belong" from the Appalachian State side of things. These programs also know each other well from being conference rivals at the FCS level. This spread is way too high. 9* customer appreciation special. |
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09-20-14 | Oregon v. Washington State +24 | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 133 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON STATE. One could certainly make the argument that this game matches up the best team and worst team from the Pac 12. But the pointspread is referred to the "great equalizer" for a reason. Taking a generous amount of points at home this week, I like Washington State to cover against #2 Oregon. Though they are just 1-2 SU/ATS, Washington State has yet to be an underdog. So the disappointing start to the season that includes losses to both Rutgers and Nevada actually works in our favor here. It is likely that the Cougars wouldn't be getting nearly this many points had they lost only once and certainly not if they were unbeaten. The Cougars have actually covered four years in a row against the Ducks, every time as a big dog. Last year's game saw them lose 62-38 down in Eugene, but they were taking nearly 40 points. This will be the first time Oregon has played on the road this season. After covering the spread in each of the final eight road games under Chip Kelly, the Ducks fell to 3-2 SU/ATS outside of Eugene last year under Mark Helfrich. This is also the first time that Washington State has played UO in Pullman since 2010. The 2012 "home game" was actually played in Seattle. That 2010 matchup was the closest between the teams in recent memory as the Ducks won by "only" 20 points. As long as Mike Leach is the coach, you know WSU is going to put points on the board. While they certainly may have trouble stopping Oregon on offense, the Cougars should be able to score enough to stay within the generous number. The team averaged 31.0 points per game last season and is up over 36 PPG through three games this year. 10* main event. |
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09-20-14 | California v. Arizona -12 | Top | 45-49 | Loss | -110 | 132 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARIZONA. I believe Rich Rodriguez's team will be taking this game seriously as they very nearly lost to Cal last year in Berkeley as a big favorite. But this year's game is at home and this isn't the first time in 2014 that I've backed the Wildcats in Tucson. They came out of the gates with a real easy 58-13 win over UNLV in the opener. Since that time, it's been a pair of close calls for "Rich Rod." I went against his team in Week 2 as they visited UT-San Antonio and won by just a 26-23 margin. I laid off last week's home game vs. Nevada as they won 35-28, but still feel I've got a pretty good pulse on Arizona nonetheless. With the two narrow wins, bettors have lined up early to bet against the Wildcats. I feel that works to our advantage. A Cal team I played in the opening week against Northwestern (a win) is now being overvalued. I say that because the Bears have lost their last 14 Pac 12 games. That's the second longest conference losing streak in the entire country right now. Both teams are pretty good at stopping the run. But when it comes to offense, Arizona is much better. In fact, there are few better nationally on that side of the ball. They come in averaging 582.7 yards per game. That is tops among all Pac 12 teams and 8th overall in the country. The Wildcats may be averaging slightly less points than they were at this time last year, but the yardage is up, both on a per play and per game basis. Freshman QB Anu Soloman has been better than expected as has freshman running back Nick Wilson, who had big shoes to fill after Ka'Deem Carey went to the NFL. I just don't see Cal as being ready to compete with the upper echelon in the conference. 10* personal favorite. |
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09-20-14 | Utah v. Michigan -6 | 26-10 | Loss | -107 | 126 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MICHIGAN. The Big 10's already fading reputation has taken a drastic hit this season, but with that comes value in certain situations. I feel one of those situations presents itself Saturday afternoon as Michigan welcomes Utah to Ann Arbor. The Wolverines have that terrible 31-0 loss to Notre Dame on their resume and failed to impress last week despite beating Miami, Ohio 34-10. But at least the win gave Michigan some much needed confidence. On defense, they limited the RedHawks to just eight first downs for the game. Utah definitely provides a stiffer level of competition. However, the Utes are just 2-9 straight up on the road the past two seasons and 3-8 against the spread. They have not won a game east of the Mississippi since going to Pittsburgh back in 2011. Two blowout wins have them overvalued here, in my opinion. This is also a bit of an early start for the Utes as kickoff will be at 12:30 pacific time. Michigan is also more accustomed to playing big games in front of national TV audiences, even though this is now year #3 for Utah being in the Pac 12. Turnovers have killed Michigan so far. They have given the ball away eight times while forcing only one turnover themselves in three games. Thankfully, there aren't many teams with a fewer number of interceptions than Utah has over the last two years. The Utes have intercepted opposing QB's only one time in the last nine games and in 2013 were tied with a handful of other teams for the fewest number of INT's in the entire country. Last week's non-cover notwithstanding, the Wolverines remain a safe bet in "The Big House" going 8-3 ATS their last 11 home games. I'll lay a short number. 9* afternoon annihilator. |
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09-20-14 | Texas A&M v. SMU +31.5 | Top | 58-6 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on SMU. Sometimes, when taking a look at a given matchup, there's no disputing who the underdog should be. This is one of those instances as Southern Methodist hosts #6 Texas A&M. The Aggies are rightfully big favorites in this spot, but I think too big of favorites against a SMU team that will play desperate football here. I'm going to take the points. To say things haven't gone well for SMU thus far would be a mild understatement. They lost their first two games - against Baylor and North Texas - by a combined 88-6 margin. Then their coach June Jones resigned due to personal reasons. It's hard to imagine any team in the country being in worse shape after only three games than the Mustangs are. But they have had an extra week to prepare and should come out fired up to play this, their first home game of the season, for a new head coach. Tom Mason, who was the defensive coordinator under Jones, is taking over on an interim basis for the remainder of the year. I just think that this is too many points for any team to lay on the road. It would be easy for Texas A&M to look past this game and towards a stretch of four key SEC West battles that follow it. Also, the Aggies will be without one of their key playmakers, Speedy Noil. The aptly named wide receiver has suffered an unspecified injury according to coach Kevin Sumlin. The five-star recruit, who also returns punts and kicks, currently leads the team in all-purpose yardage. The Aggies "only" won by 28 points last week over Rice and that was at home. I can guarantee you that no matter where the line closes, it will be the most points the team has had to lay in any road game during Sumlin's tenure at College Station. 10* best bet. |
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09-20-14 | Iowa +6 v. Pittsburgh | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 123 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on IOWA. The Hawkeyes were a team that let me down last weekend. They blew a 14-3 halftime lead and ended up losing a game they were favored to win by double digits, 20-17, on a last second field goal. Quite frankly, it has not been an impressive start to the season in Iowa City. But I feel we're gettting good value here against a Pitt team that just a couple of weeks ago would have been closer to a pick 'em for this game. There is some familiarity between the two coaching staffs as Pitt coach Paul Chryst was formerly the offensive coordinator at Wisconsin, a main rival of Iowa's. So again, laying this many points is something I wouldn't want to be caught doing. Iowa's failure to impress to this point actually works to our benefit as they now find themselves in the underdog role for the first time this season. This is a team whose five losses last year came to Northern Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and LSU, all teams that were ranked in the top 25 for most of the season. Pittsburgh is not in that same class. The Hawkeyes have to get their run game going. Thought to be a strength coming into the year, they have averaged only 131 yards per game on the ground in three games. Pittsburgh has had no such problems running the football so far. I expect whichever team has more rushing yardage to win this game. Regardless though, I am anticipating a close game. Pittsburgh actually trailed FIU 16-0 at the end of the first quarter last week. After not allowing a touchdown for seven straight quarters, Iowa allowed two in the second half last week. The Hawkeyes actually dominated the stats in their two wins this year, even though both games were close. Iowa was 2-0 ATS as a road favorite last season. 9* breakfast club. |
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09-19-14 | Connecticut +3.5 v. South Florida | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 107 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CONNECTICUT. Both of these schools enter in at 1-2 as they get set to open conference (AAC) play Friday night. UConn is very close to being 0-3 as their only win came by three points at home vs. Stony Brook, but they have played two pretty good teams in BYU and Boise State. Like the Huskies, South Florida has played all three of its games at home and its one win came over a FCS squad, Western Carolina, which has been followed by back to back losses against Maryland and North Carolina State. Therefore, with this one taking place in Tampa you might be liable to give the edge to USF. But history shows that would be unwise. A key trend for me in playing this game is the Bulls' 3-17-1 ATS record at home since 2010. Another key trend is that the underdog has gone 4-0-1 ATS the past five teams UConn and USF have met. The Bulls went up to Storrs and won last year 13-10 as four-point underdogs. The year prior they did win by seven, 13-6 at home, but were laying seven points. So with the teams looking fairly even coming into this year's meeting, I feel as if taking the points is the correct way to go. USF won only one other game last year, so that puts them at 3-12 SU in two seasons under Willie Taggert. That's hardly an endorsement for them to be laying points against anyone, much less a conference foe. Furthermore, the coaching staff may be preoccupied with thinking about next week's visit to Wisconsin, which will certainly be seen by the players as the more "attractive" game. UConn at least has its more marquee opponents out of the way and thus can start thinking about competing for conference supremacy. USF was really dominated last week by NC State, getting outgained 589 to 159 in a 49-17 defeat. Again, that's hardly a ringing endoresement to be favored. The Bulls lost outright both times they were favored last year and that was against McNeese State and Florida Atlantic. Connecticut was at least competitive for three quarters last week against Boise State. 9* main event. |
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09-18-14 | Auburn v. Kansas State +9.5 | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 82 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on KANSAS STATE. Auburn deserves all the respect that it's getting here from the oddsmakers as they come into Thursday night on a 13-0 ATS run. But that being said, I still feel they're laying too many points against a ranked, non-conference foe that has treated its own backers well when playing at home. I'll be taking the points in this one. Kansas State boasts an 88-53 ATS home record in Bill Snyder's 22 years in Manhattan. That's 62.5%. They may not have covered the spread in the opening game this year, but they were also laying in excess of 40 points against Stephen F. Austin. Laying points on the road in these Thursday night situations is always tough. Take note of the fact Auburn has not played a true road game out of conference in the last two seasons. The have played one non-SEC foe at a neutral site each year. In 2012, they lost their opening game to Clemson in Atlanta and then of course last year fell to Florida State in the BCS Championship Game. Since Snyder came back to the school in 2007, Kansas State has a 27-7 SU home record. Surprisingly, they lost three times at home last year, matching the number of losses from the previous three seasons combined. But all three losses were by 10 points or less. The key for the Wildcats will be stopping the run. Auburn led the nation in rushing yardage last season and again is averaging well over 300 yards per game on the ground this year. But Kansas State has allowed just 174 yards rushing total in two games. 10* main event. |
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09-13-14 | Northen Illinois v. UNLV +9 | Top | 48-34 | Loss | -110 | 130 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV. It's been a pretty rough start to the season so far for these Rebels. I went against them in their first game as they lost a laugher at Arizona, 58-13 as big underdogs. Last week, though a win, was hardly any more impressive as they beat a lowly FCS squad, Northern Colorado, by only a 13-12 final margin. Though that kind of win isn't going to impress anyone, it should be mentioned that UNLV did turn the ball over four times, obviously making it harder on themselves. One positive is that they did run the ball for 211 yards. They are back to catching a big number this week as they host Northern Illinois, who is off a win over Northwestern, which was one of just a series of black eyes for the Big 10 last week. But despite beating a team from the Big 10 for a second straight year, I don't believe there's reason to think that this Huskies team will be as strong as the last couple of seasons. Sure NIU has won 16 consecutive road games. But they were held scoreless in the first half last week by a Northwestern defense that likely isn't very good. This is also the second of what will be three straight road games for the team. This is the sandwich game as they'll play Arkansas next week, again a foe from a bigger conference. I can see them looking past UNLV here. Last year when Northern Illinois was better and had Jordan Lynch at quarterback, they went out West once during the regular season and failed to cover an even larger number against a poor Idaho team. Ironically, they had just beaten Iowa the game previous, so it's a similar letdown situation this week. NIU was actually 0-2 ATS on the West Coast last year, also losing its bowl game to Utah State by a score of 21-14. 10* best bet. |
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09-13-14 | Georgia v. South Carolina +6 | Top | 35-38 | Win | 104 | 130 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. Who would have guessed that this would be the line for this all-important SEC East matchup just two weeks ago? But with the Gamecocks off to a lethargic start that includes that high-profile, embarrassing loss to Texas A&M in the opener and then a close call last week vs. East Carolina, they are now a decided underdog against Georgia. The Bulldogs have played just one game and looked impressive against Clemson. I was on Georgia there, laying the points. Though it ended up being a relatively easy cover, it was a three-point game going into the fourth quarter. They will not have the benefit of playing in Athens in this game. Last year it was Georgia that came into this matchup in somewhat of dire straits, off a LOSS to Clemson the week prior. Now that they are off a win AND a bye week, it's kind of easy to see why they'd be favored, especially with South Carolina struggling. But I think it's too many points. Before the season started, South Carolina absolutely would have been favored here. Remember that South Carolina came into the season owning the nation's longest home win streak at 18 games. A&M caught them off guard. I don't think Georgia will. Georgia had lost to South Carolina three straight times before winning last year. They have not won in Columbia since '08, scoring a total of only 13 points in two losses since. The Gamecocks' defense has taken it on the chin in the first two games, but the pass-happy attacks of A&M and East Carolina may very well have simply been bad matchups for their secondary. Georgia is a run-first team that I see them matching up better against. Speaking of running the ball, South Carolina will have to get Mike Davis going. He has just 116 yards rushing in the first two games. He went for 149 last year against Georgia. He was not healthy in the A&M game and the team falling behind early didn't help his production. Last week, he did run for 101 yards against East Carolina. This week, I'll call for a big game from him and South Carolina. 10* SEC best of the best. |
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09-13-14 | Illinois v. Washington -14.5 | Top | 19-44 | Win | 100 | 128 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Chris Petersen is perhaps finding out that life in the Pac 12 isn't all that it's cracked up to be. His Huskies have struggled to a 2-0 start, beating Hawaii and Eastern Washington by a combined 8 points. But I'll give them a bit of a pass as playing out on the Island can be tough as can the week after. If there's one conference you want to be playing right now, it's the Big 10. The once proud league got beat up badly last week with a number of high profile losses. Who would have guessed that Illinois would be among the few left at 2-0? But the Illini have certainly had a couple of close calls. In Week 1, they actually trailed Youngstown State (a FCS team) 9-7 entering the fourth quarter. Last week saw them neck and neck with Western Kentucky, again trailing at home as favorites entering the final 15 minutes. Oddsmakers are predicting another easy win for the Pac 12 over the Big 10 this week. This is hardly Oregon-Michigan State in terms of overall levels of talent, but might the discrepancy between the two teams be the same? Washington beat Illinois last year by 10 points in Chicago, a game they never trailed. Though it got close in the end, the Huskies led by as many as three touchdowns. They also rolled up 600-plus yards total offense, nearly double that of the Illini. Taking their act on the road this year is probably not going to end well for Illinois. They have lost eight of nine away games the last two years for coach Tim Beckman. They are also 1-8 against the spread. The last time they traveled West was two years ago against Arizona State and predictably they lost badly 45-14 (as only 4-point dogs?) Meanwhile, Washington has a pretty safe bet in Seattle, going 15-6 ATS its last 21. 10* personal favorite. |
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09-13-14 | Iowa State v. Iowa -12.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -100 | 127 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on IOWA. On a Saturday that saw the Big 10 pretty much embarrass itself nationally, Iowa came awfully close to putting itself at the top of the list. They trailed Ball State with a minute to go, at home, before scoring a touchdown to go ahead for good 17-13. After not being that impressive either in the first game against Northern Iowa, there's some real "soul searching" going on right now in Iowa City leading up to the big in-state rivalry game with Iowa State. Fortunately for the Hawkeyes, ISU is more down than they are. The Cyclones opened their season by getting blown out by North Dakota State, the second year in a row the Bison opened their season with a win over a Big 12 opponent. Then last week saw ISU come close, but ultimately fall short against Kansas State in a 32-28 loss. Though Iowa State left town with the cash last week and the last four matchups with Iowa have all been decided by six points or less, I'm still going to lay the points with the favorite this year. Iowa should be better while little was expected from the contingent from Ames. Iowa's goal this season is a Big 10 championship and with a favorable schedule and the conference being down, they should be a player. Their four top players on offense all returned. After throwing 2 or more touchdown passes in seven games last year, QB Rudock had a career-high in yards last week with 322. This offensive line, thought to be one of the best in the Big 10, should be better. I'll point out that the Hawkeyes missed three field goals last week against Ball State. That was part of the reason that the game was close despite Iowa having a 27-13 edge in first downs and a 455-219 edge in yards. The defense did not allow a touchdown in the game as the only time Ball State found the end zone came on an early fumble return. 10* best of the best. |
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09-13-14 | UMass v. Vanderbilt -17 | 31-34 | Loss | -101 | 124 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BUFFALO. Let me state the obvious. This is A LOT of points to be getting at home. Obviously, you have to know the opponent is formidable and in this case #8 Baylor most certainly fits the bill. But with an unsettled QB situation and playing on the road for the first time, I'd be nervous about laying this many points as everyone figures to expect a third straight blowout win for the Bears. Because of that, I'll take the points. Baylor's first two opponents were both nothing teams. SMU is so bad this year that their coach June Jones already resigned. Last week's opponent was Northwestern State, a FCS team. Buffalo will be their toughest opponent so far. That's even after the Bulls lost at home last week 47-39 to Army. That was a game they trailed 47-17 with 10 minutes remaining. What would have been a huge rally ultimately fell short, but being able to pile up 33 first downs and 554 yards of total offense has to be encouraging. With Buffalo having averaged 38.5 PPG on offense through two games means Baylor would nearly have to be perfect to cover a spread this large. Also you have the fact that this is a rare national TV appearance for Buffalo. In fact this will be the first time EVER that ESPN will televise one of their home games. So expect a tremendous amount of crowd support as a top ten opponent pays a visit. This is a rare trip East for Baylor, who hasn't hit the East Coast since a three-point win in the '09 opener against Wake Forest. Baylor's starting QB Bryce Petty got injured in the first game and did not play last week. He is probable to return this week. But with an off week looming before the start of the Big 12 schedule, don't look for Art Briles to leave Petty in longer than need be. Several receivers are also currently injured for the Bears. When the spread is this high, the backdoor is generally always open. 9* main event. |
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09-12-14 | Baylor v. Buffalo +32 | 63-21 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 4 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BUFFALO. Let me state the obvious. This is A LOT of points to be getting at home. Obviously, you have to know the opponent is formidable and in this case #8 Baylor most certainly fits the bill. But with an unsettled QB situation and playing on the road for the first time, I'd be nervous about laying this many points as everyone figures to expect a third straight blowout win for the Bears. Because of that, I'll take the points. Baylor's first two opponents were both nothing teams. SMU is so bad this year that their coach June Jones already resigned. Last week's opponent was Northwestern State, a FCS team. Buffalo will be their toughest opponent so far. That's even after the Bulls lost at home last week 47-39 to Army. That was a game they trailed 47-17 with 10 minutes remaining. What would have been a huge rally ultimately fell short, but being able to pile up 33 first downs and 554 yards of total offense has to be encouraging. With Buffalo having averaged 38.5 PPG on offense through two games means Baylor would nearly have to be perfect to cover a spread this large. Also you have the fact that this is a rare national TV appearance for Buffalo. In fact this will be the first time EVER that ESPN will televise one of their home games. So expect a tremendous amount of crowd support as a top ten opponent pays a visit. This is a rare trip East for Baylor, who hasn't hit the East Coast since a three-point win in the '09 opener against Wake Forest. Baylor's starting QB Bryce Petty got injured in the first game and did not play last week. He is probable to return this week. But with an off week looming before the start of the Big 12 schedule, don't look for Art Briles to leave Petty in longer than need be. Several receivers are also currently injured for the Bears. When the spread is this high, the backdoor is generally always open. 9* main event. |
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09-11-14 | Houston +18.5 v. BYU | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 85 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. With BYU's second thrashing of Texas in as many years, the Cougars are big favorites this week at home against Houston. But that, coupled with a similar lopsided win over UConn in Week 1, has led them to become overvalued this week. Some are even now saying BYU has the best chance of an unbeaten regular season of any team in the entire country. Already bettors have taken this number up and as a result we are able to get a more favorable line. Houston was beaten up pretty good in its first game, by a UTSA team that I played last Thursday in a win plus the points over Arizona. So don't frown upon that loss too much. Besides, when you go "inside" the box score, you'll find that Houston actually had more first downs (well, one more) than UTSA, but was undone by six turnovers that led to a drastically uneven time of possession. Last week saw the Cougars bounce back with a 47-0 beatdown over Grambling. They racked up 477 total yards of offense and this time it was they who benefited from turnovers. That's something they are used to as Houston currently owns the nation's longest streak when it comes to forcing at least one turnover, doing so in 25 consecutive games. They've forced at least two in 21 of the past 23 games. These teams played a very close game last year. The final score was 47-46 BYU. That game was at Houston and saw a then-unbeaten Cougars team easily cover as 10-point underdogs , even leading outright for much of the second half. Now Houston does have a problem in that their defense gave up 681 total yards to BYU last year. But that was also the schools' first ever meeting. I expect the Houston coaching staff to be better prepared this time around. The Cougars should by no means be intimidated by going to Provo as they are 7-0 ATS their last 7 road games. 9* Houston. |
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09-06-14 | Memphis v. UCLA -23.5 | 35-42 | Loss | -115 | 98 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UCLA. The Bruins were obviously a major disappointment last week. The defense scored three touchdowns while the offense only had one and they had to hold on for an uninspiring 28-20 win over Virginia. When your defense scores three times, in one half no less, you expect to win big. But UCLA's offense was that lost last week in Charlottesville. Remember, however, that it was a very early start time for the three touchdown favorite and a cross-country trip. I actually wasn't too shocked to see them struggle. The offensive line and receivers should play better in this game. QB Brett Hundley is one of 17 returning starters from a team that won 10 games in 2013. There was a reason many had this team in their Top 10 and as a playoff contender. They're pretty good. Memphis, despite a 63-0 win over Austin Peay in its opener, shouldn't provide the kind of resistence this week at the Rose Bowl. They also have 17 starters back, but that's from a team that went 3-9. I realize Virginia's 2013 record wasn't very good either, but they also play in a better conference. At home, UCLA should look a lot better. All five home wins last year came by a double digit margin. But the stat that impresses me most is that the Bruins have won 12 straight home games by an average of 22 points per game following a road game. "I think we may have come out there a little too juiced and had a lot of mental lapses and mental mistakes," Hundley said. "We just have to fix them and come back next week and play a better game." Don't sell on UCLA yet. They should win big here. 9* blue marlin. |
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09-06-14 | BYU v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 41-7 | Loss | -106 | 142 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS. I'm well aware that Longhorns QB David Ash is going to miss this game. But by now the team should be used to playing without him. Also, with the way the defense played for Charlie Strong in the opener, the impact of Ash's absence won't be as great. I know it was "only" North Texas, but the Mean Green have a veteran offensive line and it was dominated by the Texas front four. They forced two interceptions on the first seven pass attempts they faced and brought constant pressure throughout the game. They allowed only eight first downs and 94 total yards! That's what you call a dominating performance. Remember that Strong's defenses at Louisville were very good. Just last year he presided over a unit that ranked #1 against the run in the entire country. That will come in handy facing a BYU offense that averaged 5.5 yards per carry in last week's 35-10 win over Connecticut. Lest we forget the revenge angle that's in play. The Longhorns got embarrassed last year out in Provo, losing 40-21. They actually came into that game as seven-point favorites. That loss signaled the end of the Mack Brown era. As noted above, the defense BYU will run into here is going to be much tougher. Ash played last year against BYU and obviously wasn't much a difference maker. As I said before, they are used to being without him as he was lost for the year in game #3 (week after BYU) last season. The 'Horns responded by winning seven of their final nine regular season games. Look for the defense to carry Texas to victory in this game as we're getting good value and Ash won't be missed as much as you think. 10* revenge GOM |
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09-06-14 | East Carolina v. South Carolina -13.5 | Top | 23-33 | Loss | -118 | 141 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. Obviously, you couldn't have drawn up a worse start for Steve Spurrier and South Carolina as they got hammered by Texas A&M in their opening game, 52-28, at home. They obviously weren't ready for A&M quarterback Kenny Hill. None of us were. This week's opponent fortunately won't be nearly as challenging and this looks like a bounce back spot for the Old Ball Coach and his team. The opponent is East Carolina, a team that just two years ago the Gamecocks clobbered on this field by a score of 48-10. They easily covered the three touchdown spread in that one. The line for this matchup isn't nearly as high because of what happened last week. Unfortunately, some of the value is now gone because the number has been bet up, but that's still okay. I expect South Carolina to roll in this one. East Carolina is a team that like Texas A&M will look look to pass the ball quite a bit. Last week, it really didn't matter what the Pirates' offensive gameplan was because they were obviously going to defeat NC Central and they did by a score of 52-7. But I wouldn't count on Spurrier's defense being as bad as it was last Thursday. What I would count on is South Carolina bouncing back. Only once in the previous three seasons have they lost back to back games. That was in 2012 when they played at LSU and Florida in consecutive weeks. Don't forget that coming into the year, this was the team with nation's longest home winning streak. Laying two scores seems like a lot if you watched the Gamecocks last week, but considering the mood the coaching staff is likely to be in, plus how we all viewed this team before the A&M game, they're certainly up to the challenge. 10* personal favorite. |
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09-06-14 | Georgia Tech v. Tulane +10.5 | Top | 38-21 | Loss | -102 | 138 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on TULANE. Going against Tulane provided me with my first win of this college football season. I have to say that it was a fortunate one though. Playing at Tulsa and getting anywhere from 3.5 (where line opened) to 6.5 (where it closed), the Green Wave came out and took a 21-7 lead on the road. At that point, I was sweating pretty badly. But not only did Tulsa come back and win, but they prevailed by seven points in double overtime! A real bad beat if you were a Tulane bettor though. This week sees the Green Wave taking double digits at home against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets opened their season with a fairly uninspired 38-19 win over Wofford. That was at home too. Not sure if I'd want to be caught laying double digits on the road with this relatively inexperienced GT team this early in the season, so I'll go the other way. The Yellow Jackets were a double digit road favorite only once all of last season. They pushed at Virginia, winning 35-25. They went 0-3-1 ATS their final four road games in 2013. They are also 0-4-1 ATS their last five games following a SU win, showing that they can't maintain success typically. Since Paul Johnson's first two seasons when they went 5-0 ATS as road chalk, the Jackets are just 6-8-2 ATS in that role. Tulane is both 5-0 ATS off an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS its last four home games. The Tulsa team they played last week figures to be improved this year. I can't say the same about Georgia Tech. The Green Wave had over 500 yards of total offense last week. I like seeing that. They've also had two additional days to prepare for this game. 10* best bet. |
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09-06-14 | Missouri -6 v. Toledo | 49-24 | Win | 100 | 134 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MISSOURI. Neither of these teams received much of a challenge last week in defeating FCS opponents by wide margins. However, I think there's significant value here in taking a team from the SEC laying less than a touchdown against a team from the MAC. Missouri came out of nowhere last season to take the SEC East Division. Because of that, most are expecting the Tigers to take a step back this year. Only having nine returning starters plays a big role in that. But the drop off may not end up being as severe as some might think. And if it does happen, it won't be until the SEC portion of the schedule hits. Toledo lost to both SEC schools it faced last year, one of those games coming against Missouri. While it was a relatively close game for three quarters, the Tigers eventually took control and won 38-23. This time they only need to worry about covering a single digit spread as opposed to the 16 points they were laying in last year's game. Obviously, Toledo is going to be fired up to host an SEC team. Especially one whose coach was previously the coach here (from 1991-2000). But I trust that Gary Pinkel knows what he's doing by visiting the Glass Bowl. After all, Toledo has lost 10 of its last 11 games against Top 25 teams. That includes a 1-3 SU home record. A 54-20 win almost always looks impressive, but the Rockets actually trailed New Hampshire last week 14-3. They won't be able to climb out of a similar hole here. Missouri feasts off turnovers having forced one in a NCAA-record 45 consecutive games. If they win that battle, then this game should be not much of problem. After all, the Tigers are 9-1 SU/6-3-1 ATS in non-conference games. 9* breakfast club. |
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09-05-14 | Washington State v. Nevada | 13-24 | Loss | -127 | 121 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON STATE. After a disappointing start to their season, Washington State looks to rebound this week at Nevada. I apparantly am not the only one who is expecting a large bounce back performance as this number has been bet up quite a bit already. I'd recommend getting down as quickly as possible. Wazzu gained an incredible 538 total yards last week, almost all of them through the air as QB Connor Halliday attempted 56 passes for the game, five of them going for touchdowns. Twice they led in the fourth quarter, but like last year the defense could not protect either lead. Thankfully, this week there is a drop in class to Nevada, who barely managed to scrape by a FCS school in its opening game. Granted, the Wolfpack led Southern Utah 21-6 entering the fourth quarter and they too rolled to 500+ yards of total offense, but a 9-point win over a team in a lower division clearly isn't going to impress anybody. It certainly didn't impress me. Nevada won only four games last year and didn't fare well at all when stepping up to play the better teams on its schedule. They were outscored 161-50 in three games against ranked opponents. While Washington State certainly isn't going to be in anybody's Top 25 after last week, they are a Pac 12 team that's much better than what Nevada is used to seeing in the Mountain West. The Wolfpack are only 6-14-1 ATS their last 21 non-conference games. These teams play very different styles with Washington State almost exclusively looking to pass and Nevada favoring the run. If the favorite gets out to an early advantage, it will be in better shape compared to last week as the underdog is not built to come from behind and trade points. A trend I like here is that Washington State is 13-2-1 ATS coming off an ATS loss. They are also 6-1 ATS on the road. I'll lay the points. 9* best bet. |
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09-04-14 | Arizona v. Texas-San Antonio +7 | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 95 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UTSA. Arizona looked very impressive in its opening game. I was on them as they rolled to a 58-13 laugher over UNLV at home. It was probably one of the better overall performances we saw from any team in Week 1 of the College Football season. But now they are on the road laying more than one score against a team with a recent strong history as an underdog. In two years under Rich Rodriguez, Arizona is only 4-6 straight up on the road. They failed to cover last year as 16-point favorites at a horrible Cal team. One team that Arizona did beat big in 2013 was this UTSA team, 38-13. But that was in Tucson. This will also be the second straight opponent the Wildcats are facing that they blew out last year. But the difference between this one and UNLV last week is that instead of coming off a road win the previous year and now hosting, the roles are reversed in this situation. UTSA is a team that became that a contender in its first year in Conference USA, winning six of eight league games. Larry Coker has this program heading in the right direction and the thing I like most is that they have not only covered their last five games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, but they've won all five of those games outright! With 20 returning starters (10 on each side of the ball), the Roadrunners had a tremendous start to their season as well. They went to Houston and won outright, 27-7 as eight-point dogs. They dominated the time of possession battle at a 2:1 rate and held the Cougars to 208 total yards. It's not like UTSA couldn't move the ball against the Arizona D last year. Three of their five second half possessions went into Wildcats' territory, but they only scored 7 points. With a more experienced team and home field advantage, the dog is a great bet here. 9* thursday roast. |
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09-01-14 | Miami (Fla) v. Louisville -3 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. These teams just met in the Russell Athletic Bowl at the end of last season. Louisville dominated in a 36-9 rout. Though they won't have Teddy Bridgewater (NFL) or DeVante Parker (injured) for the 2014 opener, they do have Bobby Petrino back on the sidelines and as a result I don't expect the Cardinals to skip a beat. Look for them to win big in their first ever ACC home game. Miami will be starting a true freshman at quarterback themselves, so both teams are dealing with new starters at the position. At least Will Gardner has some previous experience for Louisville. Petrino won 41 games in his four-year previous stint at Louisville. Since then, his career has been marred in controversy. He famously quit the Atlanta Falcons to become the coach at Arkansas, but then was caught with a female student after he crashed his motorcycle. He resurfaced at Western Kentucky last year where he went 8-4 straight up. Obviously, he's still a very good coach. Every year we hear how Miami "is back." Every year this never really takes place. Last year's team lost four games. This year's returns fewer starters and plays a tougher schedule. This is a tough spot having to open their season on the road with Brad Kaaya making his first career start. Miami's top offensive weapon is running back Duke Johnson, who is coming back from a serious ankle injury that cost him the second half of last season. Louisville shockingly led the nation in rushing yards allowed last season. With this being a national TV game at home, Petrino and the new coaching staff are absolutely going to place a massive emphasis on winning here. They will with room to spare. 10* main event. |
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08-31-14 | Utah State +6.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -106 | 190 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH STATE. Tennessee owns the unique distinction of being the ONLY team in the country not to return a single starter along either the offensive or defensive line. This is a dangerous Utah State team they are laying points to and I think it's too many. When looking at Utah State this year, QB Chuckie Keeton is the name to remember. Considered to be one of the more irreplaceable players in all of CFB, Keeton was lost for the year at the midpoint of last season. The Aggies still made the Mountain West Championship Game and there gave Fresno State all they could handle. Keeton is back this year. Something you may not know is that at the time of the ACL injury he was second in the entire country in TD passes with 18. He makes Utah State infinitely better. The Aggies won't be intimidated by the environment of Neyland Stadium either. Three years ago with Keeton making his first career start they went into Auburn and nearly won as 23-point underdogs. That Auburn team was coming off a National Championship. This Tennessee team certainly is not. Utah State also brings in a quality defense. Last year saw them rank 2nd in the country, giving up just 2.8 yards per rush. It's pretty incredible to see how far Tennessee has fallen down the SEC pecking order. They've had four consecutive losing seasons. It's going to be tough avoiding a fifth as they face one of the nation's most difficult schedules. The SEC vs. the Mountain West is what's helped to inflate this line. But Tennessee is one of the SEC's worst teams and Utah State is one of the MWC's best. Take the points in this one. 10* GOM |
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08-30-14 | LSU v. Wisconsin +4.5 | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 168 h 27 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN. The Big 10's poor history against the SEC is well known. But for a neutral site game, I think this is too many points for a matchup of two seemingly pretty even teams. Especially because LSU will have to replace its starting QB, starting RB and two 1,000 yard receivers from last year. Wisconsin is always a solid team. They have won 10, 11, 11, 8 and 9 games the last five seasons. They did not miss a beat under Gary Andersen last year, appearing in the Big 10 Title Game for the second time in three years. They played another SEC foe (South Carolina) tough in the bowl game and all three regular season losses were by seven points or less. The key for the Badgers Saturday night in Houston will obviously be establishing the run. This is a team that ran for 200+ yards in all but three games a year ago. They bring the Big 10's best offensive line into this non-conference matchup and RB Melvin Gordon comes off a season where he ran for 1650 yards at a highly impressive 7.8 yards per carry. Wisconsin is not an underdog often. Last year, they covered in road losses to Arizona State and Ohio State. While not a true road game in this situation, it will be a fairly hostile environment as Houston is a lot closer to Baton Rouge than Madison. But the Badgers have proven they can handle this. The Badgers bring back only three defensive starters, but as mentioned above LSU isn't very experienced on offense either. Wisconsin also just doesn't lose many regular season games to non-conference opponents. They have won 31 of 33. They have also opened 1-0 16 straight years. LSU is going to have another great year, but it will take awhile for the young talent to gel. The points are attractive. 9* main event. |
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08-30-14 | Ohio +3 v. Kent State | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 166 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO. Let's get right into the revenge angle, shall we? Ohio was Kent's final opponent last year. This is a game Ohio has been waiting for all offseason as they were hammered 44-18 at home by a Kent team that finished only 4-8. That's one of those head scratchers when you look back at the previous season's results. I expect the Bobcats to gain a measure of revenge coming out of the gate. Last year's game saw Ohio fall into a huge hole early as Kent State scored two defensive touchdowns in the opening nine minutes. It was pretty much over from there. You'd have to believe that something similar won't happen again. This is actually a double revenge situation for Ohio as they lost here 28-6 in 2012. But that was a ranked Golden Flashes team that was the program's best since the 70's. This KSU team loses perhaps its best players on both sides of the ball from last season, RB Dri Archer and DT Roosevelt Nix. Ohio also loses a ton of talent, especially on offense, but does have eight starters back on defense. They were the better team overall last year and should be again this year. Taking the points in this MAC East rivalry has traditionally been the way to go. The underdog has taken the game outright in half of the past six matchups. Usually that has been Kent State getting points. That's not the case this year, however. I can't see the Bobcats failing to cover a 6th straight time against their division rivals. Kent was 0-4-1 ATS at home last year. 10* revenge game of the month. |
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08-30-14 | Clemson v. Georgia -7.5 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA. Two big things have me pointing towards Georgia in this matchup. One is revenge. Two is they should be much improved while Clemson is likely to go in the other direction. I'm not concerned about laying the points either as the Bulldogs have lost only one game "between the Hedges" the last two years. Georgia is off an 8-5 season where many things went wrong, namely an injury to starting quarterback Aaron Murray. Hutson Mason had to step in as his replacement and he certainly performed admirably. He led the team from 20 points back to defeat Georgia Tech in the final regular season game and then threw for 320 yards against Nebraska in the bowl game. Those performances bode well for this season. There were also a number of close losses for Georgia last season, most notably the one against Auburn with the ridiculous deflection on the Hail Mary. They also lost by four at Vanderbilt and by three at Clemson. This will be an improved team this year. That three-point loss to Clemson could have gone either way. The Bulldogs actually had the edge in total yards and did lead for most of the second quarter. Getting the rematch at home is a big deal, especially in a season opener. Clemson loses a number of its top players at the skill positions, most notably WR Sammy Watkins. But also gone is their all-time leading passer Tajh Boyd, who had 5 touchdowns and 312 total yards in last year's game. I'm not sure how the Tigers will replace that. Don't be surprised if Georgia RB Todd Gurley is the difference in this one. Last year, he ran for 154 yards against Clemson - on only 12 carries. He is perhaps the best running back in the entire country. 10* personal favorite. |
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08-30-14 | California +11 v. Northwestern | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 163 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. This line has been bouncing around since it opened. Many other bettors quickly joined me on the dog as Cal went from +12 to +10. There's since been some buyback on the chalk. Getting double digits, I feel the value is on California. This is a cross-country trip for the Bears, who hosted Northwestern in the 2013 opener and lost 44-30. That set the tone for a terrible first season under Sonny Dykes where they went 1-11 with no wins over FBS teams. But I think there's reasons to be a little more optimistic with this year's Cal team. They bring 15 starters back, nine of them on offense. As a freshman, QB Jared Goff set the passing record (for freshman) at the university. It's also unlikely that the team will finish -15 in turnover margin again as they did last season. Basically, what I'm saying is Cal can only go up. Northwestern is also coming off a terribly disappointing season. They were more competitive than California was, but no team (perhaps in the nation) had worse luck at the end of games. They too are almost guaranteed of improving on 2013's win total. But I'm still not sure I like the Wildcats in the chalk role. They failed to cover four of five times last season laying points in Evanston. Last year's game was a bit closer than the final score indicates. It was tied early in the 4th quarter and Cal was able to cut the lead to 7 points with just under five minutes to go. They also had to overcome two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns. That's basically a guaranteed loss right there and ended up being the difference in the final score. Northwestern is a team not known for winning games by big margins. I prefer to be on them as a dog, quite honestly. There is also the issue of RB Venric Mark, who was to be suspended for the first two games anyway, transferring out of the program. Grab the points. 10* best bet. |
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08-29-14 | UNLV v. Arizona -23 | 13-58 | Win | 100 | 146 h 6 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ARIZONA. Rich Rodriguez is probably going to always be maligned for a failed tenure at Michigan, but in many ways that's unfair. He's done a solid job here at Arizona and that's probably underselling things. He's gone 8-5 both years in Tucson and gone to two bowl games, winning both. The Wildcats open this season against a UNLV program that has fallen on some hard times. The Rebels also made a bowl game last year (first once since 2000). But they won't be going back to one this year, no matter the won-loss record, due to poor academics. That's too bad. It's also too bad for head coach Bobby Hauck that this game is taking place on the road. In his first three years in Vegas, his teams failed to win a single road game. Last year saw them win three, but I certainly don't expect them to even remotely threaten to add to that win total here. It's noteworthy that these teams did meet last year and that game was played in Vegas. Arizona still won 58-13, easily covering the 10-point spread. UNLV has lost 13 of its previous 14 road openers and done so in pretty convincing fashion. Their average margin of defeat has been by 23 points per game the last six seasons. The poor academic scores not only result in a bowl ban, but also the loss of four hours of practice time per week. That's a huge disadvantage, particularly when attempting to break in a new starting quarterback and running back. Rodriguez's teams always average a ton of points and this year should be no different. The average margin of victory for Arizona in home openers the last 13 years is 26 PPG. 9* main event |
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08-28-14 | Tulane v. Tulsa -4.5 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 120 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TULSA. Last season saw Tulsa finish 3-9, their lowest win total in the last 10 seasons. Tulane went 7-6 and actually made a bowl game. That was their highest win total in the last 10 seasons. Both teams played in Conference USA in 2013, but now find themselves in the AAC. I think that this is a clear case of the value actually being on the favorite after both teams had uncharacteristic years. That value is dwindling a bit with the number being bet up, so I recommend getting down as quickly as possible. Tulsa has revenge in this game from a 14-7 loss last year at Tulane. The Golden Hurricane actually had more first downs and total yards than did the Green Wave, but had several costly turnovers, one of them an interception at the Tulane goal line. Previously, Tulsa had beaten Tulane eight straight times by an average of over 30 points per game. The previous three years under Bill Blakenship had resulted in wins by 28, 28 and 35 points. The majority of signs this year point towards Tulsa being better and Tulane being worse. The Golden Hurricane have 10 starters back on defense. They were just 1-5 SU at home last year after going 7-0 at Chapman Stadium back in 2013. I expect them to be much better on their home field this year. Tulane has never won at Tulsa (0-4 SU/ATS all-time) and has just two road wins in two years for head coach Curtis Johnson. Both were outright upsets last year. The Green Wave aren't as likely to be as fortunate with turnovers as they were a season ago when they ranked second in the entire country forcing 35. Even in a new conference, look for "order" to be restored to this rivalry. 9* personal favorite. |
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08-28-14 | Texas Aandamp;M v. South Carolina -10 | 52-28 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. Believe it or not, but this is the first time these two schools have ever met as the Gamecocks avoided the Aggies both years in which they had "Johnny Football." Both are coming off strong seasons as South Carolina was 11-2 (won the SEC East) while Texas A&M was 9-4 (actually a bit disappointing). There will be a new starting QB for both teams here. A&M goes with Kenny Hill. South Carolina will have Dylan Thompson under center, replacing multi-year starter Connor Shaw. The difference is that Thompson has some starting experience (3 games) while Hill has none, only previously appearing in some "mop-up duty." It also helps South Carolina that this game is at home where they've won 18 in a row South Carolina also loses a star of its own in Jadeveon Clowney. But despite that, this could end of being one of Steve Spurrier's best teams. While lacking in the star power of 2013, the depth is probably greater. Spurrier has won 11 games three straight seasons and guided the program to its highest AP finish ever at #4 last season. Not only did A&M lose Manziel, but they also said goodbye to WR Mike Evans and OT Jake Matthews. All three players were taken in the first round of the NFL Draft. So Kevin Sumlin's offense will definitely be worse this year, especially early. That's bad news considering the defense gave up 30 or more points eight times last season. After some concern that South Carolina RB Mike Davis might miss this game, it was announced Monday that he's going to play. Typical Spurrier mind games there. Davis ran for over 1100 yards last season and the Gamecocks offensive line will again be one of the best in the country (four returning starters). I expect South Carolina to simply outscore Texas A&M in this one. 8* Thursday roast. |
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01-02-14 | Oklahoma v. Alabama -16.5 | Top | 45-31 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
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Ben Burns NCAA-F Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-27-14 | LSU -2.5 v. Texas A&M | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 80 h 45 m | Show | |
11-22-14 | USC v. UCLA -3.5 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 101 h 54 m | Show |
11-22-14 | Oklahoma State +27 v. Baylor | Top | 28-49 | Win | 100 | 122 h 8 m | Show |
11-22-14 | Arizona +4 v. Utah | Top | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 118 h 1 m | Show |
11-22-14 | Louisville v. Notre Dame -3.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -106 | 99 h 20 m | Show |
11-22-14 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan -1.5 | 32-20 | Loss | -101 | 117 h 54 m | Show | |
11-21-14 | Air Force v. San Diego State -3.5 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 102 h 38 m | Show | |
11-20-14 | North Carolina +6.5 v. Duke | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 76 h 13 m | Show |
11-20-14 | Kansas State v. West Virginia -2 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 40 m | Show |
11-15-14 | LSU v. Arkansas -2.5 | Top | 0-17 | Win | 100 | 125 h 19 m | Show |
11-15-14 | Utah v. Stanford -7.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -105 | 123 h 9 m | Show |
11-15-14 | New Mexico +16.5 v. Utah State | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 122 h 45 m | Show | |
11-15-14 | Mississippi State v. Alabama -7 | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -100 | 121 h 59 m | Show |
11-15-14 | Virginia Tech +5.5 v. Duke | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 118 h 40 m | Show | |
11-13-14 | California +14 v. USC | Top | 30-38 | Win | 100 | 79 h 50 m | Show |
11-13-14 | East Carolina -2 v. Cincinnati | Top | 46-54 | Loss | -106 | 77 h 57 m | Show |
11-12-14 | Ball State +3.5 v. UMass | 10-24 | Loss | -113 | 54 h 8 m | Show | |
11-12-14 | Kent State +13 v. Bowling Green | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 54 h 6 m | Show | |
11-08-14 | Alabama -6.5 v. LSU | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 52 h 12 m | Show |
11-08-14 | Notre Dame v. Arizona State -2.5 | Top | 31-55 | Win | 100 | 47 h 12 m | Show |
11-08-14 | Duke v. Syracuse +3.5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -114 | 118 h 12 m | Show |
11-08-14 | Georgia -10 v. Kentucky | Top | 63-31 | Win | 100 | 118 h 3 m | Show |
11-07-14 | Utah State v. Wyoming +7 | 20-3 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 59 m | Show | |
11-04-14 | Bowling Green v. Akron -6 | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 11 m | Show | |
11-01-14 | Notre Dame v. Navy +14 | 49-39 | Win | 100 | 72 h 16 m | Show | |
11-01-14 | Oklahoma State +14.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 14-48 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 15 m | Show |
11-01-14 | Tennessee v. South Carolina -7 | Top | 45-42 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 54 m | Show |
11-01-14 | East Carolina v. Temple +7.5 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 64 h 46 m | Show | |
11-01-14 | Duke v. Pittsburgh -3.5 | Top | 51-48 | Loss | -103 | 64 h 35 m | Show |
11-01-14 | Utah State v. Hawaii +3 | Top | 35-14 | Loss | -112 | 63 h 53 m | Show |
10-31-14 | Cincinnati v. Tulane +4.5 | 38-14 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 24 m | Show | |
10-30-14 | Troy +26 v. Georgia Southern | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 26 m | Show |
10-25-14 | Alabama v. Tennessee +17.5 | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 102 h 18 m | Show |
10-25-14 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State -1 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -104 | 93 h 49 m | Show |
10-25-14 | North Carolina v. Virginia -7 | 28-27 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 5 m | Show | |
10-25-14 | Texas +10 v. Kansas State | 0-23 | Loss | -105 | 89 h 29 m | Show | |
10-24-14 | South Florida v. Cincinnati -10.5 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 72 h 10 m | Show | |
10-23-14 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia Tech +3 | 30-6 | Loss | -112 | 49 h 15 m | Show | |
10-21-14 | Arkansas State v. UL-Lafayette +3 | 40-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
10-18-14 | Notre Dame v. Florida State -10 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
10-18-14 | Oklahoma State +9 v. TCU | Top | 9-42 | Loss | -115 | 114 h 33 m | Show |
10-18-14 | Texas A&M v. Alabama -11.5 | Top | 0-59 | Win | 100 | 114 h 38 m | Show |
10-18-14 | Texas-San Antonio +8 v. Louisiana Tech | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 110 h 41 m | Show | |
10-18-14 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma -8 | Top | 31-30 | Loss | -110 | 110 h 59 m | Show |
10-17-14 | Temple v. Houston -7 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 96 h 31 m | Show | |
10-16-14 | Utah v. Oregon State +3 | 29-23 | Loss | -105 | 72 h 27 m | Show | |
10-14-14 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Texas State | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show | |
10-11-14 | LSU -1 v. Florida | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 138 h 54 m | Show |
10-11-14 | Houston +7.5 v. Memphis | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 138 h 31 m | Show | |
10-11-14 | Penn State v. Michigan -1 | Top | 13-18 | Win | 100 | 138 h 49 m | Show |
10-11-14 | North Carolina +16.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 43-50 | Win | 100 | 134 h 11 m | Show |
10-10-14 | Washington State v. Stanford -17 | 17-34 | Push | 0 | 116 h 50 m | Show | |
10-09-14 | BYU v. Central Florida -3 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 90 h 27 m | Show | |
10-04-14 | LSU v. Auburn -7.5 | Top | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 94 h 26 m | Show |
10-04-14 | Vanderbilt v. Georgia -33.5 | 17-44 | Loss | -106 | 92 h 17 m | Show | |
10-04-14 | Baylor v. Texas +17 | 28-7 | Loss | -115 | 91 h 17 m | Show | |
10-04-14 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +8 | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 91 h 16 m | Show | |
10-04-14 | Oklahoma v. TCU +5 | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 91 h 16 m | Show | |
10-04-14 | Marshall v. Old Dominion +17.5 | 56-14 | Loss | -105 | 88 h 30 m | Show | |
10-02-14 | Central Florida +3.5 v. Houston | 17-12 | Win | 100 | 48 h 50 m | Show | |
09-27-14 | Duke v. Miami (Fla) -7 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 82 h 56 m | Show |
09-27-14 | Stanford v. Washington +8 | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 79 h 54 m | Show |
09-27-14 | Kent State +27 v. Virginia | 13-45 | Loss | -109 | 78 h 22 m | Show | |
09-27-14 | MINNESOTA v. Michigan -11 | 30-14 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 21 m | Show | |
09-27-14 | Maryland v. Indiana -4.5 | 37-15 | Loss | -100 | 76 h 21 m | Show | |
09-27-14 | Northwestern +10.5 v. Penn State | 29-6 | Win | 100 | 74 h 17 m | Show | |
09-27-14 | Tennessee v. Georgia -17 | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -106 | 74 h 9 m | Show |
09-25-14 | Texas Tech +14 v. Oklahoma State | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 35 h 51 m | Show | |
09-25-14 | Appalachian State +19 v. Georgia Southern | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 38 m | Show | |
09-20-14 | Oregon v. Washington State +24 | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 133 h 38 m | Show |
09-20-14 | California v. Arizona -12 | Top | 45-49 | Loss | -110 | 132 h 25 m | Show |
09-20-14 | Utah v. Michigan -6 | 26-10 | Loss | -107 | 126 h 8 m | Show | |
09-20-14 | Texas A&M v. SMU +31.5 | Top | 58-6 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 2 m | Show |
09-20-14 | Iowa +6 v. Pittsburgh | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 123 h 46 m | Show | |
09-19-14 | Connecticut +3.5 v. South Florida | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 107 h 52 m | Show | |
09-18-14 | Auburn v. Kansas State +9.5 | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 82 h 28 m | Show |
09-13-14 | Northen Illinois v. UNLV +9 | Top | 48-34 | Loss | -110 | 130 h 19 m | Show |
09-13-14 | Georgia v. South Carolina +6 | Top | 35-38 | Win | 104 | 130 h 31 m | Show |
09-13-14 | Illinois v. Washington -14.5 | Top | 19-44 | Win | 100 | 128 h 1 m | Show |
09-13-14 | Iowa State v. Iowa -12.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -100 | 127 h 14 m | Show |
09-13-14 | UMass v. Vanderbilt -17 | 31-34 | Loss | -101 | 124 h 58 m | Show | |
09-12-14 | Baylor v. Buffalo +32 | 63-21 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 4 m | Show | |
09-11-14 | Houston +18.5 v. BYU | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 85 h 12 m | Show | |
09-06-14 | Memphis v. UCLA -23.5 | 35-42 | Loss | -115 | 98 h 41 m | Show | |
09-06-14 | BYU v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 41-7 | Loss | -106 | 142 h 32 m | Show |
09-06-14 | East Carolina v. South Carolina -13.5 | Top | 23-33 | Loss | -118 | 141 h 3 m | Show |
09-06-14 | Georgia Tech v. Tulane +10.5 | Top | 38-21 | Loss | -102 | 138 h 1 m | Show |
09-06-14 | Missouri -6 v. Toledo | 49-24 | Win | 100 | 134 h 5 m | Show | |
09-05-14 | Washington State v. Nevada | 13-24 | Loss | -127 | 121 h 5 m | Show | |
09-04-14 | Arizona v. Texas-San Antonio +7 | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 95 h 53 m | Show | |
09-01-14 | Miami (Fla) v. Louisville -3 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
08-31-14 | Utah State +6.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -106 | 190 h 29 m | Show |
08-30-14 | LSU v. Wisconsin +4.5 | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 168 h 27 m | Show | |
08-30-14 | Ohio +3 v. Kent State | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 166 h 31 m | Show |
08-30-14 | Clemson v. Georgia -7.5 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
08-30-14 | California +11 v. Northwestern | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 163 h 4 m | Show |
08-29-14 | UNLV v. Arizona -23 | 13-58 | Win | 100 | 146 h 6 m | Show | |
08-28-14 | Tulane v. Tulsa -4.5 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 120 h 46 m | Show | |
08-28-14 | Texas Aandamp;M v. South Carolina -10 | 52-28 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 44 m | Show | |
01-02-14 | Oklahoma v. Alabama -16.5 | Top | 45-31 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |