Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Ben Burns NCAA-F Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-08-11 | Auburn v. Arkansas -10 | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 128 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ARKANSAS. While I did successfully play against them when they lost at Clemson, the Tigers beat me last week, as I expected them to lose at South Carolina. I'm willing to bet that they won't do it again this Saturday though. The Tigers are
The Razorbacks come off a momentum-building 42-38 victory over a strong Texas A@M team. Arkansas racked up more than 500 yards through the air in that game, bad news for an Auburn secondary that has allowed four of five teams to throw for at least 198 yards and which is giving up 456.5 yards per game on the road overall. Prior to last week's narrow victory, all of Arkansas' victories had come by double-digits. Its lone loss came on the road - and that was at Alabama. With back to back road games on deck, the Razorbacks know they could use a big win here. Note that they're 3-0 at home, outscoring opponents by an average score of 47 to 12.7 here. They're now a lucrative 11-4 ATS their last 15 lined home games. The Razorbacks were a very strong team last year, going 10-2 in the regular season. In fact, they outgained opponents by 101.7 yards per game, which was best in the SEC and even better than Auburn's +91.7 differential.) Last year, Arkansas' lone home loss was vs. Alabama. That was a very close game (24-20) and the Tide were #1 at the time. The only other loss was vs. these Tigers and that came at Auburn. The final score of that game shows that Auburn won 65-43, which is all that really counted at the time. However, if you remember that one, Arkansas actually had a 43-37 lead in the fourth quarter, before giving up 28 unanswered points. In other words, despite being on the road, they went toe-to-toe for three quarters with a much stronger Auburn team. In addition to the fact that they're now playing at home, the Razorbacks are a far more experienced team than Auburn, as this year's Tigers suffered significantly more personnel losses than did the Razboracks. Indeed, Arkansas returned 13 starters from last season while Auburn only returned six. The last meeting here saw Arkansas destroy Auburn by a score of 44-23. The Razorbacks were winning that one 34-3 before putting it on "cruise control." I expect another double-digit victory here. *9 Big Easy |
|||||||
10-08-11 | Iowa v. Penn State -3.5 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 28 h 54 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on PENN STATE. The Nittany Lions haven't fared too well in this series lately and got blown out by the Hawkeyes last year. That was at Iowa though and that was a young Penn State team. Now the Nittany Lions are far more experienced and playing at home. They also have payback on their minds, as last year's loss was the worst in the history of the series. I haven't been particularly impressed with Iowa. The Hawkeyes lost to Iowa State and needed a furious 4th quarter comeback to sneak by Pittsburgh, at Iowa. Their other two wins came against the likes of Tennessee Tech and LA. Monroe. While the Hawkeyes lost to lowly Iowa State, the Nittany Lions lone loss came against Alabama. Speaking of Alabama, the Crimson Tide was the only one of Penn State's five opponents which scored more than 10 points. Indeed, even with linebacker Michael Mauti out for the season, this unit ranks among the best. The same cannot necessarily be said of the Iowa defense, normally a team strength. In their only road game, the Hawkeyes allowed 44 points. Each of their last three opponents has thrown for a minimum of 285 yards. The Nittany Lions are 18-6 SU the last six years when hosting Big Ten opponents. Looking for payback from last season, I expect them to improve on those stats, covering the relatively small number along the way. *9
|
|||||||
10-08-11 | Missouri -3.5 v. Kansas State | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 53 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on MISSOURI. Kansas State has the better record, the higher ranking and is playing at home. Yet, Missouri is favored? Many will be wondering "what gives?" and will likely be quick to back the home underdog here. I feel that the Tigers are favored for good reason though. While they came up a field goal short vs. Iowa in last year's bowl game, the Tigers still won 10 games last season. In addition to blowing out (30-9) the Texas A@M on the road, the Tigers even upset #3 Oklahoma. While they did lose at Oklahoma this season, the Tigers returned 15 starters from last season's team - they still covered at Oklahoma and are now 3-0 ATS their last three. This is a team that is loaded with talent, one which knows a big road win would really prove helpful. Note that the Tigers beat the Wildcats by 10 last season. The Tigers have also won their last two trips to Manhattan, most recently a 38-12 blowout win here in 2009. The Wildcats are certainly off to a great (4-0) start and are worthy of respect. I don't feel they're quite as talented as Missouri overall though. Perhaps more importantly, they're off an emotional win last week while Missouri had the week off to prepare - and to recover from the Oklahoma loss. I expect the Tigers to make the most of the extra preparation time. Coach Gary Pinkel had this to say: "We had a good week this past week. It was our bye week schedule, which has worked out really well for us in the past. It gets a little rest for our players and we also get a jump on the Kansas State game plan." I expect Pinkel and co. to make the most of their extra time as the Tigers cool off the 'Cats and continue their recent dominance in this series. *9
|
|||||||
10-06-11 | California +24 v. Oregon | Top | 15-43 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. The Ducks are a good team. Ok, they're probably even a VERY good team. That said, the Bears are also a lot more talented than many people seem to realize and I believe this pointspread will prove to be too high.
The Ducks lost 40-27 vs. LSU in their opener. No real shame in that, as LSU has an excellent team. Still, the 40 points allowed was a little concerning. They won each of their next two games in blowout fashion. However, those were both against very weak teams and both those victories came at home. In their last game, the Ducks won by 25 (56-31) at Arizona. That was an impressive result and final score. However, a look at the total yards (516-480) shows that the game could have easily been much closer and that the Ducks defense was again vulnerable to giving up a lot of points. The Bears are solid on both sides of the ball. They beat Fresno State by more than two touchdowns in their opener and followed it up with a road win at Colorado in their next game. That was followed by a 63-12 pasting of a bad team, before they suffered their first loss of the season in their last game. That loss, which came at Washington, came by only eight points though and the Bears had a 457 to 409 edge in total yards. As strong as they've been in recent seasons, note that the Ducks are just 5-8 ATS their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. During that stretch, they've gone just 2-4 ATS when coming off a bye and 1-2 ATS when playing on a Thursday night. Going back further finds them at 4-6 ATS their last 10 on a Thursday. I won with the Bears when they hosted the Ducks last season. Getting +19 points, they lost by only two, 15-13. The Bears haven't been this big an underdog in some time. Going back a bit finds them at 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were underdogs in the +21.5 to +31 range. I expect them to improve on those stats Thursday, as they give the Ducks a tougher game than expected for the second straight season. *10 Thurs. Best Bet |
|||||||
10-06-11 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tenn State -9.5 | Top | 36-33 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIDDLE TENN. STATE. I really like how this one sets up for the home team. The Blue Raiders won last week but didn't cover. The Hilltoppers, on the other hand, covered the spread but didn't win. Not only did those results help to keep this line somewhat reasonable, with both teams now playing on a short week, I feel the team that's playing at home and coming off a close SU win will have a significant emotional advantage over the team that's playing on the road and off a close SU loss. Note that close losses can be difficult to bounce back from, often even harder for college kids playing on a short week.
Speaking of playing on a short week, note that Western Kentucky is a terrible 2-18 SU the last 20 times that it played with six or fewer days' rest in between games while Middle Tennessee State is 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS when doing so. The Blue Raiders first three games were tough, as they were double-digit underdogs in each. They nearly won at Purdue, losing by only three. Off that close loss, they got blown out by Georgia Tech. (As noted, close losses can be tough to recover from!) Next, the Blue Raiders followed it up by losing by only three at Troy, nearly scoring the upset. Off that painful loss, they weren't able to blow out Memphis on Saturday. Still, they did get the SU victory - which was what all they were really after. Now, having gotten those three tough games out of the way and fully recovered from the letdown from the loss at Troy, I feel they're ready to build off Saturday's victory by blowing out a weak Western Kentucky team. While Western Kentucky was able to remain competitive with Arkansas State last week, its previous three games all resulted in double-digit losses. That includes a 41-14 blowout home loss vs. lowly Indiana State, a game in which Western Kentucky was laying -14 points. The Blue Raiders won by only one at Western Kentucky last season. However, they crushed the Hilltoppers by a score of 62-24 the last time that the teams met here. They're 12-5 SU/ATS their last 17 conference games and I look for them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win on Thursday. *10 Roast |
|||||||
10-01-11 | Auburn v. South Carolina -10.5 | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -105 | 101 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. I won with the Gamecocks last week, a 21-18 victory over Vanderbilt. That result worked out very well.
The Gamecocks covered the spread for me but didn't "destroy" Vanderbilt on the scoreboard. That has helped to keep this line a little lower than it could potentially have been, had South Carolina won by a greater margin. After that game, Spurrier was quoted as saying: "I apologize to Gamecock fans for such a putrid offensive performance. But we won the game." The fact is they didn't just win - they dominated. They just did so with defense. Indeed, the Gamecocks held the Commodores, who had previously been 3-0, to a mere 77 yards and just five first downs. In the end, South Carolina would finish with a commanding 367-77 edge in total yards, with a 17-5 edge in first downs. The Gamecocks defense harrassed Vanderbilt starting QB James Smith, sacking him six times. They eventually knocked him out of the game entirely in the third quarter. Vancerbilt coach James Franklin said this of the South Carolina defense: "We got manhandled up front. Their athleticism up front was obvious. We struggled with that all night." The South Carolina offense can indeed play better than it did last week - we saw that when the Gamecocks scored 56 vs. East Carolina and 45 vs. Georgia. However, the Auburn defense may not find it so easy to improve on its poor performances. The Tigers are allowing an average of 31 points per game and they allowed 38 points (and 624 total yards!) in their lone road game. The Gamecocks, 7-4 ATS the last 11 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range, haven't forgotten last year, when Auburn beat them in both the regular season and the SEC Title game. I expect them to earn some payback with a convincing double-digit victory. *10 Personal Favorite |
|||||||
10-01-11 | Wake Forest v. Boston College -1 | 27-19 | Loss | -102 | 16 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BOSTON COLLEGE. The Eagles got off to an extremely disappointing start to this season. They're off a confidence-building blowout win (over a bad team) though and they know that they've got a series of very difficult road games on deck. In other words, they better win this one, or their record could be looking very bad by the end of October. I expect them to respond with their best effort off the young season.
While the Demon Deacons have won back to back games, both were at home; one came against a banged-up NC State team and the other came against 1-AA Gardner Webb. Note that Wake Forest is 0-3 SU/ATS the last three times it was off back to back victories. Due to Boston College's poor record, we're not having to lay any points here - a straight-up victory should also get us a pointspread victory. Given that Wake Forest is just 2-10 SU (3-9 ATS) its last 12 road games, including 0-1 this season - that's offering excellent value. Note that Boston College was laying -4 at Wake Forest last season and won 23-13. The previous season, here at Boston College, the Eagles won 27-24. More of the same on Saturday afternoon. *9 |
|||||||
10-01-11 | Buffalo v. Tennessee -28.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. After a trio of ATS wins to start the season, the Bulls came back to earth last week, losing by 14 as 8.5 point home underdogs. Now, they're up against a better team and playing in a very hostile environment. I expect a one-sided blowout.
While they "pushed" as 26-point favorites in this season's opener, last year's Volunteers proved to be capable of blowing bad teams out. The two biggest pointspreads they saw were -38.5 and -19.5. The Vols won those games by scores of 50-0 and 50-14, respectively. This year's team is arguably deeper and stronger. The Vols, who are off a bye, also figure to be motivated to earn themselves a big win. That's because they're last game resulted in a loss at Florida and their next four games, after Buffalo, come against the likes of Georgia, LSU, Alabama and South Carolina. This is arguably the easiest game left on the Vols' schedule and they could use the confidence that comes from crushing a team. Even with a couple of ATS victories this season, the Bulls are still 6-12 ATS as underdogs the past few seasons. During that stretch, the Vols are 9-6-1 ATS when laying points. That includes a 2-1-1 ATS mark as home favorites in the -21.5 to -31 range. I expect the Vols to improve on those stats here, as this one turns into one of the bigger mismatches of the weekend. *9 (Big Easy) |
|||||||
10-01-11 | Air Force +3.5 v. Navy | Top | 35-34 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on AIR FORCE. I believe that we're getting excellent value with the Falcons here. Both teams are 2-1 SU. Both have beaten up on a pair of bad teams while both have lost their only game vs. a quality opponent. The Falcons beat South Dakota and Tennessee State and their only loss came vs. TCU. The Midshipmen beat Western Kentucky and Delaware, while losing vs. South Carolina. Not much difference there. Yet, due to the venue, Navy is laying more than a field goal.
True, Navy has enjoyed recent pointspread success in this series and covered the spread last year. However, that game saw Air Force laying -9.5 points. The Falcons still won but "only" by eight. The previous season, at Navy, the Midshipmen won by three. (The Falcons missed a fg at the buzzer in that one that would have forced OT.) This year's Air Force team is arguably even more talented than last year's team and has high expectations. The Falcons are also in one of their best roles as we find them at a profitable 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. On the other hand, Navy is just 1-4 ATS the last five times it was listed as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -7 range. Navy did have last week off to regroup but is still coming off a tough loss. On the other hand, Air Force enters with plenty of confidence having racked up a school record 792 yards of offense last week. I'll gladly grab the points but won't be at all surprised if the Falcons win this one for the second straight year. *10 |
|||||||
09-29-11 | South Florida v. Pittsburgh +3 | Top | 17-44 | Win | 100 | 57 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. I feel that this line, which has climbed from its opener, is providing us with outstanding value. These teams met last season at South Florida and the Panthers were a -3 point favorite. (Pittsburgh won 17-10) Now, they're meeting at Pittsburgh and the Bulls are the ones which are laying points. Given the swing from one season to the next, one might assume that the Bulls brought back significantly more starters from last year. That's not the case though. In fact, the Panthers brought back 13 starters to USF's 11.
So, why the big swing with South Florida going from home underdog to road favorite in the course of a single season? While, in addition to Pittsburgh having a new coach, the main reason is that USF is 4-0 while Pittsburgh is 2-2. The Bulls even have a victory over a team (Notre Dame) which defeated the Panthers. Many will assume that because USF beat Notre Dame and because Notre Dame beat Piitsburgh, that USF will surely defeat Pittsburgh. That type of logic doesn't often hold up though, as one needs to look at things on a much deeper level. While the Bulls deserve credit for beating Notre Dame, it should be noted that they were outgained by a 508-254 margin in that game. Meanwhile, their other three games all came at home and all came against extremely weak opponents. Seeing as the Bulls were favored by more than 20 points for each of those games, its no surprise that they resulted in victories. The Panthers lost a tough one at Iowa as they blew a big lead. Perhaps a bit "hungover" or "deflated" from that game, they lost 15-12 to the Irish. Still, having been "only" outgained by a 398-268 yard margin by the Irish, from a yardage standpoint, Pitt. actually played ND a lot tougher than USF did. Yet, here we have the Panthers getting points at home - based largely on the fact that they lost to ND while USF won vs. ND. As for the coaching change, Graham should be an improvement over Wannestedt and this is his chance to show that to the world, in a nationally televised game. The Panthers have beaten the Bulls three times in a row. Graham inherited a very good defense and now he's had a handful of games to work with the offense, which he has averaging greater than 27 points per game. The Panthers know they need this one badly, both to stop their current skid and to keep their goal of winning the Big East within reach. They were 8-1 SU in Weeks 5-9 the past couple of seasons, going 7-1 ATS in those games. I expect them to score the "upset" but will happily grab whatever points are being offered. *10 (Main Event) |
|||||||
09-24-11 | Vanderbilt v. South Carolina -15.5 | 3-21 | Win | 100 | 32 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. The Gamecocks won by 14 at Vanderbilt last season. That game was close (7-7) at halftime but the Gamecocks defense dominated in the second half. Indeed, the Commodores managed a mere 70 yards in the second half and didn't even cross into South Carolina territory until the final play of the half. South Carolina would win by 14, 21-7.
Really, last year's score could have easily been even more lopsided as the Gamecocks held a 25-11 edge in first downs and a massive 484-250 edge in total offense, while controlling the clock for nearly two thirds of the game. Now, the teams are meeting in South Carolina and this arguably an even stronger Gamecocks team while the Commodores are now with a first year coach, James Franklin. While Franklin is off to an impressive 3-0 start, this is the Commodores first road game and by far their toughest opponent yet. Note that Vanderbilt is only 6-12-1 ATS as an underdog the past few seasons, including 3-7-1 ATS as an underdog in the +10.5 to +21 range. While Franklin seems to have things moving in the right direction, I expect Spurrier to give him a taste of what playing on the road in the SEC is all about, as the more talented home team wins one in convincing fashion. *8 |
|||||||
09-24-11 | Tulane v. Duke -10 | 27-48 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DUKE. Both teams bounced back from a blowout loss in their second game to earn a victory last week. Tulane blew out UAB
by a score of 49-10. Duke squeaked by Boston College by a single point. One could certainly argue that Tulane's much larger margin of victory was "more impressive." I wouldn't even disagree. However, one could also point out that Boston College is also a tougher place to win than UAB. Either way, Tulane's "more impressive" victory has worked in our favor as the line is a little lower than it would have been otherwise. In fact, the Green Wave were a larger underdog at UAB last week and I consider Duke to be a more talented team. In addition to the added line value that last week's results have provided us with, I like how those results have set this game up from an "emotional" standpoint. The Blue Devils played well but left a lot of points on the table and needed Boston College to miss a field goal at the end of regulation in order to "hang on" for their victory. Those type of wins can often build momentum. On the other hand, the Green Wave are off their biggest win in years. Off that massive win, they're now playing their second straight road game AND they've got a road game at Army on deck - a team that they play every year and which embarrassed them at home last year. That said, I believe this one sets up well for a Tulane "letdown." Even with last week's upset victory, the Green Wave are still 7-15 ATS as underdogs the past few seasons. They're 3-14 SU on the road vs. current BCS teams and 1-5 SU/ATS their last six against teams from the ACC. I expect a one-sided win for the home team. *8 |
|||||||
09-24-11 | Oklahoma State v. Texas A&M -4 | Top | 30-29 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS A&M. Needless to say, this is a huge game for both teams. Each are undefeated. Each are highly ranked. Each have big goals this season. Playing at home and with a "score to settle," I expect the Aggies to be the team which emerges victorious.
Many of you will recall last year's meeting, a wild affair to say the least. The Aggies were up 21-7 at halftime. However, the Cowboys ended up winning 38-35. Turnovers were the story in that one. The Aggies turned the ball over five times; one of those turnovers was a 4th quarter fumble which was returned 63 yards for a touchdown. Then, with 16 seconds left, the Aggies threw an interception which was returned 28 yards to set up the Cowboys' game-winning field goal. Ouch! That was at Stillwater though, while this is at College Station. Big difference. A closer look at last year's stats shows that the Aggies dominated statistically, turnovers notwithstanding. In fact, Texas A&M significantly outgained the Cowboys on both the ground AND through the air. Overall, the Aggies finished with 535 total yards (109 and 426) while the Cowboys only had 351 (67 and 284). Its true that this year's Cowboys team could potentially be even more explosive than last year's, although I feel that its too early to say that yet. The Cowboys returned 14 starters, including nine on offense. Receiver Blackmon is truly the real deal. However, while the Cowboys returned 14 starters, the Aggies returned a whopping 18. Ten on offense and eight on defense. In his fourth year here, this is clearly the most talent that Mike Sherman has had to work with. Speaking of Sherman, this guy is no slouch. He gets little media attention - arguably less so than other coaches of ranked teams. Perhaps partly because he's not particularly "flashy" and doesn't seem to care for the spotlight. He's a proven winner in the pros though (57-36 as a head coach in the NFL w/ 4 playoff trips) and he's got his Aggies headed in the right direction. They were 10-15 his first two years here, including a blowout loss at Oklahoma State in 2008 and a close loss to the Cowboys here in 2009. However, in his third season, Sherman turned the corner, as the team went 9-4, including wins over Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska and Texas Tech. As noted, they easily could also have beaten Oklahoma State. Last year was a relatively young Aggies team - now they're experienced. Now, they're playing at home. Sherman has now beaten every other team "in the area" but not this one. Obviously, he's had this one circled and it means a great deal to him. The Aggies are 12-6-1 ATS their last 20 "home" games and 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they were favored by four or fewer points. Ultimately, I expect them to be a little "hungrier" and for their superior defense, combined with homefield advantage, to be the difference. *10 (NCAA Personal Favorite.) |
|||||||
09-24-11 | Temple v. Maryland -8.5 | 38-7 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MARYLAND. Both these teams lost vs. quality opponents last week. The Terrapins lost 37-31 at home to #18 West Virginia. Hosting Penn State, the Owls lost 14-10. The Owls loss was arguably more "impressive." After all, they covered the spread while the Terrapins did not. However, I believe their loss will also prove more difficult to bounce back from. While the Terrapins were behind the entire way against WVU, Temple was actually beating Penn State. They share the same state with the Nittany Lions and a victory in that game would have been truly monumental. To come that close, only to lose, figures to be a tough pill to swallow.
While they played Penn State tough at home last week, the Owls are 0-13 their last 13 road/neutral site games against teams from BCS conferences. They were blown out by an average of 35 points in those losses. Coach Edsall has had some time to get used to the strengths and weaknesses of his new players. He's got the offense putting up plenty of points and I expect them to have success against a Temple team which returned only five defensive players from last season. True, the Temple defense performed well against Penn State. However, as noted, that may have had a "draining" effect on the Owls and I expect the Terps' up tempo attack to give them trouble. As for the Owls offense, quarterback Mike Gerardi completed just nine of his 22 passes against the Nittany Lions and also tossed two interceptions. The Terps should be able to load up the box to stop the run and force Gerardi to beat them. If the Terps can get a solid lead, which I feel is likely, Temple doesn't have the type of passing attack needed to get back in the game, or to exploit the Terps' potentially suspect pass defense. Note that the Maryland defense was lit up by the WVU passing attack but limited the Mountaineers to less than 100 yards on the ground. The Terps are 6-0 all-time vs. Temple, most recently a 38-7 beatdown in 2005. I expect them to improve on those stats Saturday afternoon, earning the cover along the way. *9 (Big Easy) |
|||||||
09-22-11 | North Carolina State +8 v. Cincinnati | Top | 14-44 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on NC STATE. I won with the "under" when these teams played last year. This year, I feel that the pointspread is too high and I'm grabbing the points with the visiting underdog.
Both teams have blown out a pair of bad teams and each has lost in their only game against a half decent opponent. The Wolfpack lost by seven at Wake Forest. The Bearcats were blown out at Tennessee. The Wolfpack, who were 2-0 on Thursdays last season, return 13 starters from a team that went 9-4 last season. That included a 30-19 victory over Cincinnati. Granted, that was at Raleigh and the Wolfpack still had QB Russell Wilson, now at Wisconsin. Cincinnati gained only 75 yards on the ground in 31 rushing attempts in last year's game. NC State, on the other hand, gained 158 rushing yards on 36 attempts. The Bearcats should certainly be improved this year. However, keep in mind that they were only 4-8 last season. So, asking them to beat a team, that dominated them last year, by more than a touchdown is asking a lot. Its true that the NC State defense, which originally returned eight starters from last season, has been hit by several injuries. Naturally, that's not a good thing. However, that's been factored into this line already and it should be remembered that the Cincinnati defense has also been less than impressive. Despite facing 1-AA Austin Peay and Akron, one of the weakest teams in 1-A football, the Bearcats have allowed all three opponents to rush for at least 125 yards. They've also allowed all three opponents to pass for a minimum of 150 yards, including 405 by Tennessee. Overall, the Vols gained a whopping 531 total yards. Even without Wilson, the Wolfpack offense is more than capable of also having success here. Coach Tom O'Brien had this to say of his new QB: "I think Glennon has done better than I would have expected him to be at this point. When you complete 17 out of 20 and it's the second best completion percentage in school history only to Philip Rivers, who is the marquee marker here as far as quarterback goes. Mike Glennon had three incompletions, one was a throw away and the other two hit guys in the hands. From halftime of Wake Forest through now it's been, for a guy that's only played three games, it's been a pretty remarkable stretch..." The Wolfpack are 3-0 ATS their last three against teams from the Big East. They're also 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were listed as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range. During that stretch, the Bearcats were just 0-3 ATS as favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range. I feel that this one could well come down to the wire and will grab the points with Glennon and the Wolfpack. *10 |
|||||||
09-17-11 | Stanford v. Arizona +10 | 37-10 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ARIZONA. Stanford has certainly gotten off to an impressive start. Indeed, with Andrew Luck running the offense, this is a very dangerous team. The Wildcats are no slouches though and I believe they're providing us with plenty of value.
Off a blowout loss vs. Oklahoma State, one which was nationally televised, the betting public is pretty down on Arizona. Getting blown out at Stillwater could happen to any team though. Not only has that result helped to provide us with excellent line value - but it should be a good motivator for the Wildcats and will have given this year's team a taste of bigtime competition. Stanford, on the hand, has yet to face a "good" team, having faced San Jose State and Duke, thus far. Note that the Cardinal are quite inexperienced (outside of Luck) have a new coach and are playing their second straight road game. While not as well known as Luck, Arizona also has a good QB and a very capable offense. The Wildcats, who beat Stanford here in 2009, are looking to avenge last year's loss at Stanford - when they were ranked #13. Having had a couple of extra days to prepare, I expect the revenge-minded Wildcats to give their guests all they can handle, improving to 9-5 ATS in lined home games the past few seasons. *9 |
|||||||
09-17-11 | Hawaii v. UNLV +18.5 | 20-40 | Win | 100 | 43 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UNLV. I successfully played against the Warriors last week and I feel that this will be a good spot to do so again. While Hawaii has an experienced QB, the rest of the team is relatively in experienced. Now, off their first loss and playing far away from home (in a venue loaded with distractions) the Warriors are playing the second of back to back road games and being asked to lay a very large number, one which has risen from its opening number. Facing a revenge-minded UNLV team which is playing its home opener, I believe it will prove to be too high.
The Rebels are 12-8 their last 20 home openers, incl. 11-3 when their opponent wasn't from a BCS Conference. While they got blown out at Hawaii in 2010, the Rebels beat the Warriors here in 2009. The Rebels have had a taste of bigtime competition, having played at Wisconsin. Despite being blown out, they still fought hard enough to cover the big number in that one. The Rebels are 5-1 as home underdogs in the +17.5 to +21 range and I expect them to improve on those stats here. *9 |
|||||||
09-17-11 | Oklahoma State v. Tulsa +14 | Top | 59-33 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on TULSA. Oklahoma State is a dangerous and explosive team, one which is capable of putting up big points. The betting public is well aware of this. Off the big win over Arizona, they'll be quick to want to back the Cowboys here. However, the oddsmakers are also well aware of this and have posted a rather large number. I believe it'll prove too large and that the value lies with the revenge-minded home underdog.
Like the betting public and the oddsmakers, Tulsa knows full well how potent the Cowboys are. After all, Oklahoma State crushed the Golden Hurricane by a score of 65-28 last Sept. 18. That was at Stillwater though, while this one's at Tulsa. True, the Cowboys offense is among the best around. The same can't necessarily be said of the team's defense or discipline though. While they have had a couple of extra days of preparation time, the Cowboys are off a big "bowl rematch" (vs Arizona) and have a huge game at Texas A&M on deck. That one ranks among their biggest games of the year. In other words, this game may not mean quite as much to the Cowboys as it does to Tulsa. While the Golden Hurricane do have a new coach this year (Bill Blankenship) they're loaded with experience. In fact, this team brought back 18 starters from last year's team, losing just 13 lettermen. By the end of the year, they could well be the best team in Conference USA. True, the Golden Hurricane did suspend star receiver Damaris Johnson. His loss hurt initially - but Bryan Burnham has helped pick up the slack wtih 10 catches for 162 yards and three touchdowns. The Golden Hurricane have already played a bigtime opponent, getting blown out at Oklahoma in Week 1. That was on the road though, their first game with the new coach. They bounced back with a convincing 31-3 victory at Tulane last week. That gives them some positive momentum and should give them some much needed confidence for Saturday night's big home opener. After the blowout loss at Stillwater last season, the Golden Hurricane closed out the regular season on a 8-1 run (lone loss was on the road and by only 3 points) before crushing Hawaii 62-35 in the Hawaii Bowl. In other words, this is a team which has become accustomed to winning. Its also a team which hasn't forgotten last year's debacle in this series. The Golden Hurricane are 7-1 ATS (6-2 SU) the last eight times that they were off a conference victory. Off their big win over Tulane, I expect them to give the Cowboys all they can handle here. *10 (Top Revenge play) |
|||||||
09-17-11 | Arkansas State v. Virginia Tech -24 | Top | 7-26 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA TECH. At first glance, this line many appear fairly high. However, if Arkansas State wasn't off a big win and a 2-0 ATS start and if Virginia Tech wasn't off an ATS loss, the line could easily be higher. As it is, I don't feel that it will prove to be high enough.
The Hokies are certainly capable of delivering a blowout. Their lone home game resulted in a 66-13 victory. Laying -27 points, they won by 53 points. Note that Virginia Tech is a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the last five times that it was a favorite in the -21.5 to -31 range. During that stretch, Beamer's squad has gone an impressive 18-8 ATS as a favorite overall. The Red Wolves lone road game resulted in an 18-point loss, as a 19-point underdog. Even with that cover, Arkansas State remains a poor 6-9 ATS its last 15 road line games and 6-8 ATS (1-13 SU) its last 14 as underdogs. The Hokies believe that this year's team has a shot at a perfect season. As such, they'd like to make sure that they crush teams like this, to "look good" for the polls. Three meetings in this series have seen the Hokies win by an average score of 49-5. The Hokies had a 422-191 edge in average yards in those games. I expect this one to also be very one-sided. *10 (Big Easy) |
|||||||
09-17-11 | Michigan State v. Notre Dame -4 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 60 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. I respect the Spartans. In fact, I played on them last week and they rewarded me with a 44-0 victory. That was a home game against Florida Atlantic though. This week, they're playing a road game at Notre Dame. Big difference.
Off back to back losses, including a true heartbreaker vs Michigan, the Irish figure to be seeing red. Keep in mind that this is a very good Notre Dame - just one which has been snakebitten by turnovers thus far. As coach Brian Kelly said: "The one stat that really matters for me is the turnover takeaway, and there's a direct correlation to percentage of winning when you turn the ball over. There's no stat for me that tells the story more than that." That's true - but for the record, the Irish have put up more than 500 yards of offense in each of their first two games. They've outgained opponents by an average of 508 to 254 at home and 510.5 to 353 overall. Those aren't the stats typical of an 0-2 team. Rather, with numbers like that, one would expect most teams to have been 2-0 with a pair of convincing victories. Off the Michigan loss, some teams might really react badly. This is Notre Dame though - a team with a ton of pride and a team with a passionate and competitive coach in Kelly that won't allow them to hang their heads. Kelly had this to say of his team: "If we do not beat ourselves, we've got a chance to be the kind of football team that we all believe that we can be. I can see it. I've coached almost 250 football games. I can feel and see a football team coming together. They've got to take care of the football. They've got to execute better, and they will..." The Spartans, who took on lowly Youngstown State before the FAU game, are just 5-10 ATS since 2008, when listed as underdogs, including 3-5 ATS the last eight. They were last underdogs in the bowl game vs Alabama and lost 49-7. Prior to that, they were underdogs vs. Iowa on 10/30 and lost 37-6. The Spartans won last year's game by 34-31, in OT. That was at Michigan State. This year, the Spartans returned 12 starters while the Irish returned 17. Playing at home and desperate for a victory, I expect the Irish to avenge that loss in a big way here. *10 (NCAA Personal Favorite) |
|||||||
09-17-11 | Pittsburgh +3.5 v. Iowa | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Hawkeyes have the advantage of playing at home, which is the primary reason that they're favored. I believe the Panthers are currently the stronger team though.
Wannestedt had some success here at Pittsburgh. However, he was never particularly well liked and was forced out. Todd Graham comes in from Tulsa, where he had an impressive 36-17 record as a head coach in four years. Last year, he took Tulsa from a 5-7 record to a 10-3 record. Wannestedt certainly didn't leave the cupboard bare, as Graham inherited a talented team with 13 returning starters. With eight defensive starters back, the Panthers have arguably the most talented defense in the Big East. On offense, Graham brings a new more "QB friendly" system, which the players have now had a couple of real games to learn. This will be the Panthers' first true test under Graham as the first two games came against Buffalo and Maine. Naturally, the Panthers won both those first games. However, the fact that they failed to cover in either, is helping us in terms of line value here. Iowa is well coached and is usually tough. That said, this year's team is quite inexperienced. In fact, with only nine returning starters, they're the least experienced team in the Big East. The Hawkeyes' lack of experience caught up with them last week, as they were upset at rival Iowa State, 44-41. The fact that the setback came in the third overtime figures to make it extra "draining," both physically and emotionally. Indeed, it was the first OT game in the 59 game series between Iowa and Iowa State and the highest-scoring to boot. After the loss at Iowa State, coach Kirk Ferentz said this of his team: "Right now, we've got a lot of work to do. It became pretty evident today..." The last meeting between these teams (back in 2008) was decided by a single point, a 21-20 victory for Pittsburgh. I expect the Panthers to score the outright victory here. However, in game that could easily also "go down to the wire," I'll gladly grab the points. *10 (Annihilator) |
|||||||
09-16-11 | Boise State v. Toledo +20.5 | Top | 40-15 | Loss | -105 | 41 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on TOLEDO. Boise State is very good, as usual. However, I believe this line has gotten a little out of control. It was high to begin with an has climbed even higher since its opener. With all due respect to the Broncos, I believe it will prove to be too high.
The Rockets are generally tough at Toledo. Indeed, they're 51-19 SU their last 70 home lined games. That includes an 8-4 SU (7-5 ATS) mark the past couple of seasons. This year's lone home game came against an inferior opponent (New Hampshire) but saw the Rockets put up 58 points on 591 yards. More impressive, last week the Rockets nearly beat the Buckeyes, at Ohio State. They eventually lost 27-22, easily covering as +17.5 point underdogs. That was at Ohio State. Yet, now they're at home and getting even more points. Some might feel that the close loss to Ohio State will be difficult for Toledo to "recover" from, as can sometimes be the case. The Rockets weren't really expecting to win that game though - at least not going into it. So, I don't feel there will be much of a "letdown" effect. Not when they're playing a home televised game against a nationally ranked opponent which embarrassed them last season. While we know Boise is very well coached, I believe the same can be said of Toledo. Speaking of last season, this year's Toledo team returned a whopping 18 starters, most in the MAC, losing just nine lettermen. Even with the loss on the blue turf, they were still a solid 8-5. After the loss at Boise, the Rockets won all four of their remaining home games last year, one by a touchdown and the other three by double-digits. While it may seem that they're always blowing teams out, note that the Broncos are just 2-4 ATS the past couple of seasons when favored in the -10.5 to -21 range. Against a Toledo team with plenty of experience and offense talent, I expect the Broncos to face a much tougher test than most will be expecting. *9 |
|||||||
09-15-11 | LSU v. Mississippi State +4.5 | Top | 19-6 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on MISSISSIPPI STATE. Obviously, this is a huge game for both teams. LSU wants to stay undefeated. Mississippi State wants to bounce back from last week's loss to Auburn and to avenge a string of losses in this series. The Tigers bring the higher seed to the table and a victory against Oregon on their resume. Clearly, they're a talented team. The Bulldogs are better than many realize too though and I feel that this season's early results are helping to provide us with excellent value.
Mississippi State won nine games last season, including victories over teams like Georgia and Florida. Its only home losses were a 3-point setback against Auburn, the eventual national champion and a double-OT loss against Arkansas, ranked #13 at the time. (It should be noted that the Bulldogs did get "blown out" at LSU - however, it should also be noted that turnovers led to the lopsided score.) This year's Mississippi State squad brought back a whopping 16 starters, the most in Dan Mullen's career here yet. The Bulldogs may not be "fancy" but that doesn't mean they don't possess a potent offense. Through two games, they're averaging 585 yards and 46.5 points. Even with some injuries on the offensive line, this is still a very experienced Bulldog offense and I expect them to have success here. Note that the Bulldogs are playing their home opener and that they're 15-5 SU their last 20 home openers, including 3-0 the last three years. The Tigers are 4-5 ATS in road lined games the past few seasons, 1-2 ATS as road favorites. Off to a 2-0 start, note that the Tigers are also an ugly 35-53 ATS in lined games, when coming off two or more consecutive victories, including a 4-8 ATS mark their last 12 in that situation. The Bulldogs have the physical talent to match up against LSU. They're playing at home on a Thursday night and they're getting a field goal (or more) to boot. They very nearly knocked off the Tigers here in 2009, outgaining them by a 151 to 30 margin on the ground in that game. That one was eventually decided by four points. While I feel the Bulldogs have an excellent shot at the outright victory, in a game that could once again easily come down to the wire, I'll gladly grab the points. *10 |
|||||||
09-10-11 | Houston v. North Texas +22 | 48-23 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NORTH TEXAS. I played on both these teams in Week 1, winning with Houston while losing with North Texas. While I respect the Cougars, I feel that lastweek's results have helped provide us with excellent value with the home underdog Mean Green.
Yes, North Texas struggled in its opener. That was on the road though and after an awful first quarter, the Mean Green more or less got ittogether. Now, they're playing their home opener - while doing so against an "instate rival." Naturally, the Mean Green should be "fired up." At least, arguably, more so than their guests. The Cougars certainly do have a bigtime passing attack. The defense is "nothing special" though and they're coming off a big "revenge" win last time out. This is their first road game of the season and they're just 2-6 ATS the past couple of seasons, when laying points on the road. Going back further finds them at a money-burning 11-23-1 ATS the last 35 times that they were laying points. Note that the Cougars are also just 3-17 their last 20 road openers. The Mean Green haven't played since Thursday, so have had a couple of extra days of preparation time. They went 1-0 ATS the past couple of seasons, when playing with eight or more day's worth of rest. During that time, they were also 1-0 ATS as an underdog in the +21.5 to 31 range, a role they'd previously struggled in. Ultimately, I feel this number will prove to be too high. *9 |
|||||||
09-10-11 | South Carolina v. Georgia +3 | Top | 45-42 | Push | 0 | 45 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA. Once again last week's results have worked in our favor again here. Georgia lost vs. Boise State while South Carolina beat up on East Carolina. That's among the reasons we're able to get a very talented Georgia team as an underdog, which I feel provides us with excellent value.
Naturally, this is a huge game in the SEC East, as both these teams feel they have the necessary talent to win the division. Its arguably bigger for Georgia though. Not only are the Bulldogs off a loss but they're also playing at home and have a coach on the hot seat. Additionally, the Bulldogs will be looking to avenge a loss at South Carolina from last season. That meeting also came in Week 2 and the setback started a 3-game losing skid for the Bulldogs - they haven't forgotten and should deliver a much better effort, now that they're the ones playing at home. South Carolina did win by 19 last week but still failed to cover. The defense gave up five touchdowns and South Carolina could have easily lost outright if not for having five East Carolina turnovers go their way. The Gamecocks are now just 6-9 ATS the last 15 times that they were laying points. Note that the Gamecocks are also just 5-11 their last 16 road openers. They last played here at Athens in 2009 (also in Week 2) and lost by four points. In the end, I look for homefield to be the difference as a highly motivated Georgia squad rises to the occasion and scores the upset. *10 SEC Main Event |
|||||||
09-10-11 | Stanford v. Duke +21.5 | 44-14 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DUKE. Last week's results have worked in our favor here, as we're getting a much larger line than we might have otherwise. Stanford looked impressive in blowing out SJ State last week. Meanwhile, Duke lost outright to lowly Richmond, an FCS team. While its important to learn from Week 1 results, its also important not to over-react to them.
While it didn't slow them down much in the opener, keep in mind that the Cardinal have a new coach and that QB Andrew Luck lost a number of key weapons. Additionally, lets not forget that this is Stanford's first road game of the season and that they've got their Pac-10 Opener, a road game at Arizona, on deck. In other words, it might be easy to overlook lowly Duke. The Blue Devils, on the other hand, should be extremely focused. Coach David Cutcliffe is in his fourth season at Duke and this was supposed to be his strongest team yet. Needless to say, Cutcliffe was not pleased with last week's effort and will be demanding more of his players. Also, note that the Blue Devils return 14 starters from last year's team. While that squad went only 3-9, not that only two of those nine losses came by greater than 15 points - one was on the road vs. Virginia Tech and the other was against Alabama, when the Tide were ranked #1 in the country at the time. Yet, even though Alabama was arguably stronger at the time than Stanford is now - the line wasn't that much different than this one. It should be remembered that Duke also lost its opener vs Richmond a couple of seasons ago, in 2009. The next week, playing at Army, the Blue Devils won by double-digits. While Stanford is obviously a much tougher opponent than Army, the point is that Cutcliffe was able to get his team to bounce back with a much better effort. I look for him to have his team ready to go and for them to give their guests a much tougher game than most will be expecting. *9 |
|||||||
09-10-11 | Hawaii v. Washington -6 | Top | 32-40 | Win | 100 | 50 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. This line came out low and immediately climbed from its opener. That won't stop me from playing on the Huskies though, as I feel the line should have been higher than a touchdown to begin with. Indeed, last week's results have worked in our favor by keeping the low line lower than it easily could have been. Hawaii won and covered vs. Colorado while Washington barely squeaked by lowly Eastern Washington.
The Warriors were playing at home though, a late Saturday night game. Now, they make their first road trip of the season - often a big deal for a young team. True, the Warriors return QB Bryant Moniz. However, he only has two of last year's offensive starters around him. Overall, the Warriors return only nine starters from last year. On the other hand, the Huskies lost QB Locker yet return 15 starters overall. True, Locker was a star. However, the Huskies showed last season that they were more than about Locker, as he was banged up almost the entire year. This year's team will be anxious to show they can win big without Locker while looking to build some confidence and positive momentum for next week's big showdown at Nebraska. I feel that last week's "squeaker" will prove to be a good wakeup call for them. Losing outright would have been disastrous but winning a close one Keep in mind that the Huskies beat ranked teams like USC and Oregon State last season while closing out the regular season with three straight victories (California, UCLA, Washington State) to advance to a bowl. They then proceeded to knock out Nebraska, avenging an earlier loss, 19-7 in the Holiday Bowl. I had the Huskies in that game, as well as some other big wins on them, incl. the UCLA one - so, followed this team closely. In addition to being inexperienced, the Warriors are an ugly 2-9 ATS (1-10 SU) the last 11 times that they were road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. The Huskies are 12-4 SU their last 16 against teams from the WAC and 7-1 SU the last eight times that they were laying points. I expect them to improve on those stats, covering the still relatively low number along the way. *10 (Personal Favorite) |
|||||||
09-10-11 | Florida Atlantic v. Michigan State -32 | Top | 0-44 | Win | 100 | 46 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE. Laying more than four touchdowns, obviously the Spartans have some major advantages in this one. I feel the line could easily be higher. The Owls were +34 point underdogs at Florida last week and lost by 38. I feel this year's Michigan State team, arguably Dantonio's strongest here, may currently be even better than Florida.
After last week's lost Owls coach Schnellenberger said this of his team: "I was disappointed in our football team because, as I watched the game unfold, it became obvious that we weren't prepared for the game or we didn't expect them to be as good as they were. I can't determine how hard they played or the talent or lack of talent because we made an error on almost every play." Don't expect Michigan State to show the Owls any sympathy. After not properly "hammering" Youngstown State last week (they won 28-6) the Spartans should be anxious to lay a beating on someone and I expect them to have plenty of motivation to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here. I say that as they faced the Owls last year and were leading 27-7 and then let FAU get back in the game. After last week's game Dantonio had this to say: "I think everyone has got to take a look at themselves, coaches, players, everybody and go back and get ready to play the next one against Florida Atlantic. I think it can certainly serve to motivate us by asking the question, 'Who are we? Who are we as a football team?' Hopefully that wasn't us out there...." Clearly, he'd like his team to deliver a convincing blowout. The Owls blowout loss in Week 1 was nothing new - they finished last season by losing their last three games by scores of 34, 24 and 37 points. In fact, the Owls are an awful 2-14 ATS the last 16 times that they were listed as road underdogs of greater than 21 points. That includes an 0-4 ATS mark as underdogs of greater than 31 points. The Spartans, on the other hand, are 3-2 ATS the last five times that they were listed as favorites of greater than 31 points. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10 |
|||||||
09-08-11 | Arizona +14.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARIZONA. If you're a fan of college football, you'll probably remember that these teams faced each other in a bowl game (Alamo Bowl) last December 29th. You also may recall that Oklahoma State won that game by a score of 36-10. My friend, who manages a large sportsbook, told me that game was among the most one-sided, in terms of everyone wagering on one team, of the bowl season. The betting public firmly backed the Cowboys and the sportsbooks took it on the chin. Looking back at the "internet consensus reports" from that game shows a similar tendency with the players heavily supporting the Cowboys. Roughly 75% of the 5000+ contest players won with Oklahoma State.
The majority of people that watched that game will remember that Oklahoma State "easily" won and covered. Indeed, for many of them it was probably among their most "lopsided" victories of the bowl season. As a result and with the Cowboys playing at home and coming off a blowout win in Week 1, many will be quick to again back Oklahoma State here. Well aware of this, the oddsmakers have been forced to put up a very big number. I believe this has provided us with excellent line value with what should be a very hungry Arizona squad. A closer look at the bowl game shows that the game could have easily been closer than the final score suggests. In fact, Arizona had a solid edge in total yards, (370-312) first downs, (25-17) and a commanding 37:31 to 22:29 advantage in terms of time of possession. Given those stats and given the final score, one can easily see that turnovers must have played a factor. That indeed was the case. The Wildcats had six possessions in OSU territory in the first half alone, yet managed only a touchdown. Even Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Bill Young acknowledged: "...we had a good score in the bowl game, but it really wasn't indicative of how the game was. There was a couple of interceptions that turned it and big plays on offense and so forth that sometimes you don't get those, so we have to be ready to play." Needless to say, the Wildcats will be fired up to try and avenge that loss and show that they are better than the score of the Alamo Bowl suggests. True, the Cowboys are a very dangerous and explosive team. They've got an excellent QB and one of the best receivers (Justin Blackmon) in the country, The Wildcats have the type of offensive weapons that should allow them to keep up though. While the competition (Northern Arizona) was obviously inferior, note that senior QB Nick Foles threw for FBS-best 412 yards and five touchdowns last week. He's got a bigtime target in Juron Criner, last year's leading receiver in the Pac-10. Criner had six catches for 151 yards and a touchdown last week. Coach Stoops said this: "Foles and Criner are our go-to guys and are very established players, and that is what we expect from those guys every time they step on the field." Oklahoma State, also facing inferior competition, did rack up 61 points against Louisiana-Lafeyette last week. The Cowboys also gave up 34 points though and QB Weeden was picked off three times. Obviously, Arizona is a big step up in class. While the Cowboys are 1-3 ATS the last four times that they were favored in the -10.5 to -21 range, the Wildcats are 1-0 ATS as underdogs in +10.5 to +21 range. They're also 2-0 ATS the last two times that they played a road game where the O/U line ranged from 63 to 70 points. I expect them to improve on those stats on Thursday night. *10 |
|||||||
09-03-11 | Rice v. Texas -24.5 | 9-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TEXAS. These teams met exactly one year ago. That game was played at Reliant Stadium in Houston, yet Texas, which was playing its first regular season game without Colt McCoy, was laying -31.5 points. The Longhorns won by "only" 17. This year's game is being played at Texas. Yet, the Longhorns are laying roughly a touchdown less. Considering that I expect them to be improved this season, I feel that provides us with excellent value. Last year was disappointing for the Longhorns and their fans and I look for them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here, to begin this season by erasing those memories in convincing fashion.
The Longhorns have won 11 straight openers. While they by only 17 at Rice last season, they've still beaten the Owls 11 straight times and 39 of 40. The last meeting here at Texas saw them win by a score of 52-10. Even last year's meeting could have easily been more lopside as the Owls got a very fortunate (fluke) TD right before half, off a tipped pass. Even QB McHargue admitted: "You get lucky every now and then. Really that's it." Overall, the Longhorns are 6-2 ATS (8-0 SU) the last eight times they were a host in the series. The Owls are only 3-14 ATS (0-17 SU) the last 17 times that they were listed as underdogs in the +21 to +30 range. During the same stretch, the Longhorns are 20-10 ATS (30-0 SU) as favorites in the -21.5 to -31 range. Looking to make a statement "they're back," I look for the Longhorns to improve on those stats here. *9 |
|||||||
09-03-11 | Boise State v. Georgia +3.5 | Top | 35-21 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA. This is one of the biggest games of opening week. Led by a Heisman trophy candidate at quarterback, the Broncos check in with the #5 ranking. They're very well-coached and have proven to get it done, year after year. The Bulldogs are off a losing season (their first since 1996) and therefore aren't getting much respect by the betting public. However, make no mistake, this team is also loaded with talent. Indeed, they're still ranked in the top 20 to start the season.
Kellen Moore has proven to be legit star at QB for Boise. That said, he lost a number of key players around him this year. Also, the Bulldogs have a very capable QB of their own. Indeed, Murray had 24 touchdowns last season against just eight interceptions. He also had a 61% completion rate and threw for more than 3,000 yards in the air. Keep in mind that was his first year and that he was up against SEC opponents. Speaking of the SEC, for all their success, the Broncos are 0-4 SU this millennium against teams from the SEC. In 2000, they lost 38-31 vs. Arkansas. The following season, they were beaten 32-13 by South Carolina. The next year, in 2002, they lost 41-14, again vs. Arkansas. Then, in 2005, facing Georgia, the Broncos were destroyed 48-13. Note that Georgia was laying more than a touchdown for that game. Now, the Bulldogs are getting a field goal or more. Excellent line value, in my opinion. We know the Broncos are great on the Blue Turf at home at Boise - this game is being played at the Georgia Dome though and the Dawgs aren't too shabby on turf themselves. Indeed, they're a profitable 14-5 ATS their last 19 games played on turf. True, the Broncos really want to win this game. Not only would it get them some payback for the 2005 loss but it would get them on the right track in their quest for another undefeated season. Don't think the Bulldogs are any less motivated though. This is their backyard and they're off a losing season. A win here would be a great way to start the season the right way and to stop the critics from immediately jumping all over them. While I like Georgia to win outright, in a game that could easily come down to the wire, I'll happily grab the points. *10 |
|||||||
09-03-11 | San Jose State +29 v. Stanford | 3-57 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ STATE. Normally, when backing an underdog, I like to feel my team has a legit shot at winning the game outright. That's not entirely realistic when backing a massive underdog like this one though, nor is it necessary. Rather, we just need our team to "hang around." I believe the Spartans are entirely capable of doing just that.
Stanford was very good last year. With star QB Andrew Luck returning to the fold, the Cardinal, currently ranked #7, should be strong once again. That said, with a new coach and only 11 returning starters, it might take some time before they start really clicking. Keep in mind that Luck will be missing three starters from last year's offensive line. He'll also be without Doug Baldwin and Ryan Whelan, his top receiving weapons last season. Given all the new faces around Luck, being asked to win this game by more than four touchdowns is asking quite a lot, in my opinion. Last year's SJ State team, which had a new coach, was very young and inexperienced. Consequently, it struggled early in the year. Actually, at 1-12, the Spartans struggled to get wins all year. They started putting it together towards the end of the season though and that resulted in four of their final five games being decided by a touchdown or less. This year's team returns 18 starters, including 11 on defense. I expect them to be much more competitive this season. Some of you may recall that the Spartans upset the Cardinal 35-34 five years ago. If you're older than me and a serious fan, you may also recall that the Spartans pulled off an upset of Stanford back in 1982. That was significant as it came when John Elway was in his senior season for the Cardinal. More recently, note that the Spartans lost by "only" 25 when playing at Stanford two years ago. (The time of possession in that game was nearly identical and the teams had an equal number of first downs.) The teams didn't meet last year, which was coach MacIntrye's first. Now, its his second year here though and his first chance to play in this "rivalry" game. MacIntrye and co. insist that they aren't in awe of Luck and the Cardinal and that they're coming here to win. MacIntyre said this of his team facing Luck: "I don't think they'll be in as much awe because they're right here in the backyard with him. I think they just learned how to handle all the extra activities, the pregame hype. All it is is football. And what happens between the lines is all that matters." I expect MacIntrye to have his team ready and for them to give their "rivals" a much tougher tester than most will be expecting. *9 |
|||||||
09-03-11 | UCLA v. Houston -2.5 | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. I had a big win on the 'under' when these teams faced each other last season. The O/U line was 66 and they combined for only 44 points, a 31-13 victory for the Bruins. Despite playing on the road, the Cougars were favored by -3.5 points for that game. This year, despite now playing at home, Houston is favored by (slightly) fewer points. Considering that I feel they are an improved team from last season, I feel that's providing us with excellent value.
The Bruins have not been a good road team in recent seasons. They're 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS their last dozen away from UCLA. Note that they're also just 5-12-1 ATS (4-14 SU) the l8 times that they were listed as underdogs and 0-3 SU/ATS the last three times that they played a game where the line ranged from the +3 to -3. The Cougars feel they have a score to settle. Not only did the Bruins embarrass them last season but UCLA also knocked out Houston's star QB. Case Keenum is back this year though and he and the Cougars believe they have an outside shot a perfect season, if they can win this game. Naturally, I expect them to be extremely motivated. While I respect the Bruins, I feel that home-field will ultimately prove to be the difference. The Cougars are 7-3 SU/ATS their last 10 home lined games and I look for them to step up and get some payback on Saturday afternoon. *10 |
|||||||
09-01-11 | North Texas +14.5 v. Florida International | Top | 16-41 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTH TEXAS. Both teams have some issues and both are likely to make a few mistakes in their opening game. Each team has some matchup advantages. While the Golden Panthers do have the advantage of playing at home, I believe this is simply a case of the favorite laying too many points.
This is a big game for the Mean Green. They've got a lot of new excitement about this year's team but they also haven't forgotten that the Golden Panthers embarrassed them, at North Texas, last year. What better way to start this season than by getting some payback. Note that last year's line was -4.5 and that the line for the 2009 meeting, here at Florida International, was only -3. (FIU won that game by a touchdown.) In fact, all six meetings between these teams have had lines of less than a touchdown. Even with last year's cover at North Texas, the Golden Panthers are still just 5-7-1 ATS as favorites the past few seasons. During that time, they're only 3-7 ATS in lined home games. They're also 0-1 ATS as favorites in the -10.5 to -21 range. Meanwhile, North Texas checks in at 3-1 ATS the last four times it was an underdog in the +10.5 to +21 range and 7-5 ATS its last dozen road lined games. As of this writing, the O/U line is 53.5 or 54. Therefore, its worth mentioning that FIU is just 2-4 ATS (1-5 SU) the last six times it played a home game with an O/U line in the 52.5 to 56 range. That includes an 0-2 ATS mark the past few seasons. On the other hand, North Texas is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times it played a road game with an O/U line in the 52.5 to 56 range, going 9-2 ATS its last 11 in that situation. I'm grabbing all the points I can get. *10 |
|||||||
01-10-11 | Oregon +3 v. Auburn | Top | 19-22 | Push | 0 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on OREGON. By now, most everything has been said about this game. Everyone knows both teams are undefeated and that both looked very good. Many will point to the fact that Auburn has the "best player" and that they played in the better conference. However, when its all said and done, I feel that Oregon will be the team left standing.
Many believe that the SEC still remains #1. Its been the dominant conference for years now. Many of their teams didn't far particularly well in the bowls this season though. At the least, they didn't "completely dominate." True, Alabama looked very good in dismantling Michigan State and Miss. State looked equally impressive in crushing Michigan. Also, LSU pretty much had its way with A&M. However, look at some of the other games. Florida did beat Penn State, but the cover came on a late interception. Meanwhile, Tennessee lost. Georgia lost. South Carolina lost. Arkansas was beaten by Ohio State. Most recently, Kentucky was blown out by Pittsburgh. Some Pac-10 highlights saw Stanford destroy Virginia Tech 40-12 while Washington had its way with Nebraska. True, neither of those opponents were from the SEC. However, they were both still considered to be very good teams. Note that Oregon pounded both Stanford and Washington. True, he SEC has won six national titles in the 12 years, while the Pac-10 has won only one. Note that none of the SEC's six BCS title victories came against a Pac-10 school though. This was especially true in 2003, when LSU and USC shared the championship. Had those teams met for the title, USC would have been favored ... USC coach Lane Kiffin noted: "It's an interesting argument. In normal years, the SEC is stronger every year. This is the one year when it may have flopped." (Of course, Kiffin has some first-hand knowledge, as he's also a former SEC coach. That's a debate which will be settled on the field tonight. However, my point is that the SEC isn't head and shoulders above the Pac-10 right now, today. Yet, the perception that it is so much better, is helping us, as that's the reason Auburn is favored. While Auburn is 0-2 ATS (1-1 SU) the last two times it played with two or more week's rest, during the same stretch, the Ducks were 4-1 SU/ATS when they did so. During that time, Oregon was 5-2 SU/ATS when playing a line with a -3 to +3 range. Looking back further and we find the Ducks at an impressive 37-16 ATS in that role. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10 |
|||||||
01-07-11 | Texas A&M +3 v. LSU | Top | 24-41 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS A&M. With the perception that teams from the SEC are in a class of their won, the line has been climbing on LSU. The SEC has hardly been unbeatable though. True, Alabama looked very good in dismantling Michigan State and Miss. State looked equally impressive in crushing Michigan. However, look at some of the other games. Florida did beat Penn State, but the cover came on a late interception. Meanwhile, Tennessee lost. Georgia lost. South Carolina lost. Most recently, Arkansas was beaten by Ohio State.
Speaking of Arkansas, that's the same Razorback team which defeated LSU, in the Tigers most recent game. That was just LSU's second defeat of the season. Given that their only other loss came vs. Auburn, that loss cost them a shot at a much bigger bowl. (They were 7-0 before the Auburn loss, so actually were thinking National title before that.) While the Tigers are still saying all the right things about being happy to be here, there still has to be a feeling of "what could have been." On the other hand, the Aggies should definitely be happy to be here. Coach Sherman was quoted as saying: "As a football team we are very excited about playing in the AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic. This is a great reward for a group of players and coaches who have worked hard. Our players have family and friends who will be able to attend and we know we will face a quality SEC opponent." In addition to potentially being the "hungrier" team, the Aggies also enter as the "hotter" team. They closed out the season with six straight victories. While Kansas (who the Aggies crushed 45-10) was a bit "easy" this season, those other five games came against the likes of Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas. In other words, their winning streak is legit. LSU does have a very good defense and did manage some big wins this season. The Tigers were also "fortunate" a couple of times though and they're still a money-burning 7-13 ATS their last 20 against teams with a winning record. The Aggies are 3-1 ATS the last four times that they played a game with a line in the +3 to -3 range. They're also 5-0 ATS the last five times that they were off a conference victory. Playing in Texas and motivated from last year's blowout bowl loss to an SEC team, I expect the Aggies to keep on rolling. *10 |
|||||||
01-01-11 | TCU -2 v. Wisconsin | Top | 21-19 | Push | 0 | 438 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on TCU. Naturally, with a combined record of 23-1, these are both very good teams. Not only have both won, they've both won big. While TCU has the better record, many will point to the fact that Wisconsin played a tougher schedule. While the Mountain West Conference has a few good teams, the Big Ten is stronger, from top to bottom. I don't think the gap was quite as big this season, as the national media is making it out to be though. I also don't think the Horned Frogs should be "penalized" for what conference they play in. After all, they simply dismantled teams in their conference.
Indeed, with the exception of a 40-35 win vs. San Diego State, the Frogs beat every team in the MWC by double-digits. I had San Diego State when the Aztecs covered against the Frogs so that did not surprise me. Not only are the Aztecs a very solid team but they were catching TCU off its "game of the year," a 47-7 dismantling of the previously undefeated Utes, at Utah. Other notable conference victories included a 31-3 blowout of BYU and a 38-7 win and cover vs. Air Force. I had the Frogs in that one and pointed out that I felt they'd be the only team to "blow out" the Falcons. That proved to be the case as Air Force didn't lose any other game by more than five points all year. (lost by five vs. Utah, by three at Oklahoma and by two San Diego State.) In other words, blowing out the Falcons by 31 points was actually quite impressive. While the non-conference schedule admittedly wasn't that difficult, the Frogs did face both Oregon State and Baylor, a couple of relatively capable teams. TCU won those games by a combined score of 75-31. In four road games this season, the Frogs won by a combined score of 188-30! Yes, Wisconsin deserves credit for beating both Ohio State and Michigan. Note that the victory vs. Ohio State came at home though and that this year's Michigan team wasn't as good as usual. The Badgers did also win at Iowa, another "quality" victory. That only came by a single point though and the Badgers won it on fake punt. Other road games saw the Badgers win at UNLV and Purdue. Both those teams were relatively weak. Their other road game came at Michigan State and the Badgers lost that one by 10. Their non-conference schedule included a 1-point home win vs. Arizona State and games against teams like San Jose State and Austin Peay. They've gotten a lot of recognition for some major "blowouts" down the stretch. However, they came at home against the likes of Indiana and Northwestern. In other words, while the Badgers did play a "few" tough conference games, it wasn't like they were playing an "SEC" schedule. Therefore, I don't think the argument about them playing a "vastly superior schedule" holds that much weight. The Horned Frogs may be favored here but they don't feel that they're getting much respect. They keep hearing how the "big bad Badgers" are going to "steamroll" them. I feel that will give them a chip on their shoulder and I expect them to respond accordingly. This is a team which believes it may well be the most talented in the entire country. It thought so last season, too. This is their chance to finally earn some respect. Speaking of last season, I like the fact that the Frogs were an undefeated team which lost a big (17-10 loss vs. Boise in the Fiesta) bowl game, beaten thanks in part to a fake punt. This year's team, which brought back 16 starters, including QB Dalton, hasn't forgotten. This is a very well-coached team and Patterson will be sure that his players know that life doesn't often provide second chances and that one needs to make the most of them when they come around. Patterson was quoted as saying: "I have always said it doesn't matter what conference you are in, you should be judged by what type of football team you have. We feel like we have a very good football team." Speaking of Dalton, he had 26 TDs with only 6 INTs. He rushed for over 400 yards and was sacked only eight times. He has continued to improve each season and this year had his career best 66.2 completion percentage, and a career best nine yards per pass attempt. While he'll rely on his powerful running game a lot, I also expect Dalton to be much better than he was in last year's bowl game, when he threw three interceptions. Note that Dalton, the nation's active wins leader with 41 career victories, had previously been a bowl-game MVP twice. On the other side of the ball, TCU, which has out-gained 32 of its last 33 opponents, allowed 215 yards per game - by far the fewest in the country. Last year was TCU's BCS debut. Now, the Frogs are "experienced." While I really respect the Badgers, I fully expect the Frogs to prove to be both the better and the "hungrier" team, covering the small number along the way. *10 |
|||||||
01-01-11 | Penn State v. Florida -7 | 24-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FLORIDA. The Gators had a down year and many expect them to get upset here. Don't count this team out though. The Gators were still 6-4 ATS as favorites this season and they're an outstanding 24-12 ATS (31-5 SU) in that role the past few seasons. Perhaps even more impressive, note that the Gators are a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS the last six times that they played with two or more week's rest in between games. You may remember what they did in last year's Sugar Bowl, delivering a 51-24 destruction of Cincinnati.
Unlike the Gators, the Nittany Lions are just 2-2 SU/ATS the last four times that they played with two or more week's rest in between games. They're also only 1-4 SU/ATS the last five times that they were listed as underdogs. The Gators may not be what they were. They're still arguably more athletic than the Nittany Lions though, who have also seen better days. They're also 4-1 in bowl games under Meyer. Playing their final bowl game with him as their coach and doing so in the state of Florida, I expect them to rise to the occasion with a convincing win and cover. *9 |
|||||||
12-31-10 | Florida State +3 v. South Carolina | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 417 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA STATE. These teams had a similar W/L pattern down the stretch. They both lost in their conference championship game, after both having won three straight to get there.
Of course, both teams are disappointed to have lost that conference championship game. That doesn't mean that they don't want to win this game though. The perception is that this year was South Carolina's chance. Its probably true that this is/was Spurrier's best team here so far. I wouldn't say that this was their one chance though. In fact, looking ahead to next season and the Gamecocks have a chance to be even better. The Seminoles, of course, have talent every season. This year's team was extra "special" in my opinion, though. While it wasn't what they hoped for, a win here will get them 10 wins for the first time since 2003, a notable accomplishment in Fisher's first year without Bowden. In my opinion, this year's team has shown more heart than we've seen from recent FSU teams, while displaying more of a "never-quit attitude." While the Seminoles hope that Christian Ponder will be back and healthy for the game, they've got an extremely capable backup in EJ Manuel, who did a solid job against Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game. "We have all the confidence in the world when EJ is out there," Fisher said. "The players have confidence in him and he is the future of this program." Whoever is behind center has plenty of weapons at his disposal - the Seminoles returned nine offensive starters from last year's team. Both teams also have very similar stats. Both finished the season at 9-4. South Carolina averaged 32 points per game. Florida State averaged 31.8. (*Note that the Seminoles scored 30.5 on the road while the Gamecocks scored 26.3 on the road.) South Carolina allowed 22.9 points. Florida State was a bit better in that department, allowing only 19.8. (That means the Seminoles outscored teams by 12 ppg while the Gamecocks outscored them by 9.1 ppg) Yet, despite the similar numbers, the Gamecocks are laying points. Of course, that has a lot to do with the fact that they are an SEC team and the SEC is still considered to be the strongest conference. I won't disagree about the SEC being the best and its true that the Gamecocks had to play some very tough opponents. In fact, they played Auburn twice (lost both games) Georgia, Arkansas, Florida and Alabama, to name a few. I had them against Alabama and while they certainly deserve credit for that impressive win, it was a great "setup." Not only were the Gamecocks at home, but they were coming off a bye and they were catching the Tide off a big win vs. Florida. They caught Georgia early in the season when the Bulldogs weren't playing well yet and the Gators weren't as good this year as they've been. They were blown out by Arkansas (21 point loss) and they also lost vs. a mediocre Kentucky team. They did beat Tennessee but the Vols are also down a notch from what we've seen in the past. It should also be noted that South Carolina did look very good in beating up on Clemson - other victories came against the likes of Southern Miss, Furman and Troy. Ok, I'll admit, it was indeed quite a challenging schedule. However, with the exception of the win vs. Alabama - and I noted that why I played on the Gamecocks in that one and that it was a favorable setup - this is not a team which has "blown me away." Given the opportunity to avenge the earlier loss vs. Auburn, the Gamecocks were destroyed by a score of 56-17. A look at the Seminoles' schedule reveals that perhaps the difference in quality of opponents played isn't as big as many would have you believe. No, the Seminoles did not have to contend with Auburn or Alabama. They did have to play at Oklahoma though - a far more difficult non-conference game than the Gamecocks had. I successfully played on the Sooners in that game, so wasn't surprised that the Seminoles stumbled. Their next two losses (vs. NC State and UNC) both came by four points or less though - and easily could have been victories. Like South Carolina, the Seminoles defeated Clemson. Like South Carolina, they blew out Florida. Other notable blowout wins include a 34-10 pasting of BYU and an impressive 45-17 win at Miami. Therefore, while they didn't play in the SEC and while some may disagree, I would argue that the Seminoles' schedule was comparable to South Carolina's schedule, in terms of difficulty. At the very least, it wasn't "world's apart," as seems to be the popular opinion. Yet, the fact that South Carolina hails from the "mighty SEC" and the perception that the Gamecocks have played a far tougher schedule is the main reason why we're getting extra points to work with on the Seminoles. While I expect the Seminoles to win outright, I also know that those points could prove valuable. Consider that four of Florida State's final seven games were decided by five points or less. Even with the victory over Clemson, note that the Gamecocks are still 2-3 ATS the last five times that they were favored by four or less. On the other hand, including last year's 33-21 bowl win vs. West Virginia, a game in which I also played Florida State, the Seminoles are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were underdogs of four or less. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10 |
|||||||
12-31-10 | Notre Dame v. Miami (Florida) -3 | 33-17 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MIAMI. The Irish closed out the regular season in more impressive style than the Hurricanes. They've also currently got more coaching "stability" than Miami currently does. While Notre Dame is set with Brian Kelly, the Canes are in transition. Randy Shannon is out and Al Golden is in. However, he won't coach in the bowl game - as that duty will fall to holdover offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland. For those reasons, many will expect the Irish to win this game. However, I believe the Canes were favored for good reason and feel that the low number is providing us with excellent value.
Both teams finished with 7-5 records. Both had difficult schedules. I've read that Notre Dame had the "toughest schedule in the country" and I agree that it was tough. However, I have my own method of determining strength of schedule and believe that Miami's schedule was every big as difficult, if not more so. While that's debatable, there's no debating that Miami was considerably more impressive against the lone common opponent, Pittsburgh. The Irish got to host the Panthers. They won 23-17. Pittsburgh outgained them both on the ground and through the air. On the other hand, Miami had to travel to Pittsburgh. Not only did the Canes win, they dominated. They won that game 31-3, enjoying a solid edge in total yards. I've already noted that I believe the schedules are comparable. If we look at the overall numbers, the Canes have both scored more points AND allowed fewer. Despite playing at tough venues like Ohio State, Pittsburgh and Clemson, the Canes outscored teams by a 27.8 to 17.8 margin on the road. For the season, the Canes outgained teams by a 422.6 to 317.2 margin, in terms of total yards per game. Notre Dame had a much smaller advantage. The Irish only outgained teams by a 378.2 to 353.2 margin. While many are always quick to dismiss the team which is "in between coaches," these teams often have a point to prove and are still more than capable of winning. Many have said they want to win this one for Shannon. Even though Golden is not coaching, this is his team, and he has already started to "instill his persona" throughout. He's spoken to the Canes about how important winning this game is and knows a victory will help in recruiting and setting the tone for a "return to glory." I believe the Canes, 8-4 ATS their last dozen non-conference games, are the more talented team and look for them to rise to the occasion and show it here. *9 |
|||||||
12-30-10 | Washington +14 v. Nebraska | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. We saw a Big 12 team beat up on a Pac-10 team last night. Many will be expecting a repeat performance in tonight's Holiday Bowl. After all, Nebraska already crushed Washington this season and finished with a far superior record overall. While anything is always possible, I expect a far better showing from the Pac-10 tonight.
I believe that the game means more to the Huskies and that they've really got something to prove. They've got a quarterback looking to prove to the nation why he was often touted as the best NFL QB prospect, entering this season. They've also got a team which is happy to be in a bowl and which is looking to redeem itself after these same Huskers embarrassed them back in September. On the other hand, the Huskers already won this bowl last season and they've already beaten the Huskies this year. Make no mistake. The Huskers are a very talented team. Beating them won't be easy. However, I believe the Huskies are in much better position to do so now than they were earlier. Locker has proven to be a leader to his team, battling through a rib injury to help his team become bowl eligible. Now, with the extended rest, he's "virtually pain free" and I expect him to perform well. Locker was quoted as saying: "Feeling great, feeling awesome. I feel normal. Yeah, like I always had before." With Locker at less than 100%, the rest of the team elevated its game. I had the Huskies when they beat UCLA on 11/18. That was a real turning point for this team. They came out of the locker from the second half and dominated the Bruins, a team which had previously owned them. They followed that up by winning on the road at California (no easy task) and then avoided a letdown to beat rival Washington State in the Apple Cup. That gives them both momentum and confidence heading into tonight's rematch. On the other hand, the Huskers really have to be thinking about "what could have been." They were up 17-0 in the Big 12 Title game and ended up losing 23-20. That would have meant a much bigger bowl and its only human nature to be disappointed. The Huskers are only 3-7 ATS the last 10 times that they were listed as favorites in the -10.5 to -21 range. Facing a revenge-minded Huskies team which comes in on a roll, I expect them to have their hands full the entire way. *9 |
|||||||
12-30-10 | Kansas State v. Syracuse | Top | 34-36 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on SYRACUSE. Long before my time, the Orange were involved in the first college football game at the "original" Yankee Stadium. The history books show that they won that Oct. 23, 1923 game by a 3-0 score, over Pittsburgh. One day, I expect the history books to also show that the Orange won the first game ever at the "new" Yankee Stadium.
While both teams were somewhat "up and down" this season, both are happy to be here. Neither program has been to a bowl for some time and both will be anxious to take the next step and earn a victory. The fact that the game is in the Bronx figures to have some added significance to the Orange though, particularly head coach Doug Marrone. Marrone, a Bronx native, was quoted as saying: "When the announcement was made that a bowl game was going to be played in Yankee Stadium for the first time, my thought was that if we were not going to play in a BCS game, then how great would it be to play in the first college bowl game in Yankee Stadium in my first head coaching job. The opportunity to play in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl in my hometown is part of the whole dream. New York State is our foundation. This is another step in our return to prominence." Both teams like to run the ball and both have very capable rushing attacks. The Wildcats did average considerably more points on the season. However, the Orange have a far better defense. While winning the turnover battle is also always critical, I believe that the team that does a better job in stopping its opponent from running the ball will have an excellent shot at winning this game. I believe that team will be Syracuse. I successfully played against the Wildcats in their last game and saw them surrender 41 points and 298 rushing yards vs. lowly North Texas. (Nebraska rushed for 451 against them.) Over their last three games, the Wildcats allowed 232, 251 and 298 rushing yards, giving up a total of 123 points. That's more points than the Orange have given up over their last six games. Snyder's Wildcats didn't fare well off their bye this year, getting crushed (at home) by Nebraska. On the other hand, given the extra time, Marrone has the Orange ready to go. Off their bye, the Orange traveled to South Florida and won outright as +8 point underdogs, holding the Bulls to nine points. Including that result, they're 4-0 ATS when playing with two or more week's worth of rest. I expect Marrone to have them ready to go once again. *10 |
|||||||
12-29-10 | Arizona +6 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 10-36 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Cowboys had a much better record this season. They were 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS. The Wildcats were 7-5 SU and 5-6 ATS. Those records have Oklahoma State listed as a solid favorite and with many expecting them to record a convincing victory. As often seems to be the case, I see things differently.
In most cases, for the "bigger" January bowl games, both teams are happy to be there. December bowl games are a bit different though. Some teams are happy to be there and/or have much to prove. Other teams, usually ones who had a chance of something bigger right up until the end of the season, aren't necessarily thrilled to be involved in a "smaller" bowl game and have a feeling about "what could have been." I believe that this is one of those cases. Naturally, Arizona would have preferred to be playing on New Year's Day, too. However, the Wildcat players have been aware that wasn't realistic ever since a Nov. 6th loss at Stanford, which triggered a losing streak. Therefore, they've had plenty of time to get used to the idea that they weren't going to any big bowl game. In fact, the chance to play a quality Big 12 team actually is better than it could have been, given the 7-5 record. This team, which started 7-1, believes its better than its overall record indicated. They don't like the way that they closed the season and this is a chance to redeem themselves. Also, throw in the fact that they got crushed by a team from the Big 12 (Nebraska) and I believe that we'll see a very motivated group of Wildcats. Coach Stoops was quoted as saying: "It's great to be the first league team to play in this first year of the new Alamo Bowl affiliation with the conference. Our players are excited to be playing in an outstanding bowl against a quality opponent like Oklahoma State." On the other hand, even though it was a great year, the Cowboys figure to be somewhat disappointed about not being involved in a bigger game. They finished in a 3-way tie on top of the Big 12 South but didn't get a chance to play for the Big 12 Championship. They know that things would have been different if they beat Oklahoma in their final game. Seeing the Sooners get a New Year's Day bowl game (Fiesta) vs. an opponent (UConn) which is arguably not as good as this Arizona team that they will face, also figures to rub them the wrong way. Yes, Oklahoma State is very good offensively. In fact, they averaged more than 500 yards per game, the #1 mark in the country. They also have a suspect defense though. They gave up 27.7 points per game with opposing teams generating more than 400 yards per game. Keep in mind Arizona is actually a very talented team. The Wildcats were 7-1 at one point, including wins vs. the likes of Iowa and California. The Wildcats only lost two games by more than three points all season and those were both on the road, at Stanford and at Oregon. Their "worst" home loss was a 3-point setback vs. USC. While the Wildcats don't have quite the ridiculous offensive numbers that the Cowboys do, they are very capable on that side of the ball. They averaged 29.7 points per game on the season. They were able to score on the road too, averaging 28 points per game on the road, while putting up an impressive 477.4 yards. Its on the defensive side of the ball that Arizona should have the advantage. The Wildcats allowed 21.6 points and 342 yards per game. They also held five opponents to 14 or fewer points. Note that two of Oklahoma State's victories (Troy and Texas A@m) this season came by a field goal. Also, note that three of Arizona's losses (USC, Oregon State) came by three or fewer points. They also won a game (Cal) by a single point. While I believe the Wildcats have an excellent shot at the outright "shocker," in a game that could also easily come down to the wire, I'll gladly grab the points. *10 |
|||||||
12-28-10 | North Carolina State v. West Virginia -3 | Top | 23-7 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on WEST VIRGINIA. Give the Wolfpack credit for a great season and for making it this far. I believe that they'll find themselves in over their heads here though.
I played against the Mountaineers in last year's bowl game. Listed as small favorites, they lost 33-21 to Florida State. That team wasn't rolling the way that this year's team was though and that loss, also against an ACC opponent, should provide them with some added motivation here. Last year, WVU entered its bowl game having gone 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) its final six games. However, a closer look at those four victories shows that they came by 3, 3, 8 and 4 points. This year, the Mountaineers enter their bowl game having gone 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS their final four games. They scored 35 or more in three of those games and won the four by a combined score of 124-44. Coincidentally, those four teams (Pitt, Cincy, Rutgers, Louisville) were the exact same four teams that they faced to close out last season. While some of those opponents (Cincy) admittedly weren't as good as they were last season, there's still no denying that this year's WVU team enters its bowl playing better football than last year's team. While many tend to make jokes about the Big East, the Mountaineers are a very talented team. They've got a balanced offense which is clicking right now and which can beat teams with both the run and the pass. Perhaps more importantly, they've got an extremely stingy defense. Indeed, the Mountaineers allowed an average of just 12.7 points per game on the season. Opposing teams gained just 251.3 yards per game. Those numbers rose on the road - but not my much. On the road, WVU allowed 15.4 points per game and 281 yards. A closer look reveal that the Mountaineers never gave up over 21 points this entire season. Additionally, the 15 TDs they allowed were the fewest in the entire country. They were very tough against both the run and pass. The Wolfpack had a strong offense this season, thanks largely to QB Russell Wilson. Wilson had an exceptional season. He's hasn't faced many defenses like this one though and he doesn't have the type of balanced offense that WVU brings to the table. Facing a WVU defense which had 22 takeaways and 40 sacks, I won't be surprised if he run into some trouble. Its on the other side of the ball that the Mountaineers have the real advantage though. While they allow less than 13 points per game, the Wolfpack come in allowing 22.5 per game. That number climbs to 26.5 (373 total yards) on the road. The Mountaineers were 2-0 SU/ATS when playing with two or more week's worth of rest this season. They won those games by scores of 49-10 and 37-10. I expect them to be ready to go here. *10 |
|||||||
12-24-10 | Tulsa v. Hawaii -10 | Top | 62-35 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on HAWAII. I successfully played against the Warriors when they were blown out 42-7 on 11/6. That was at Boise though, facing a very good Broncos team on the blue turf. While Hawaii got destroyed in that game, I've been really impressed with how the Warriors have responded. It would have been easy to hang their heads and/or to "go through the motions", particularly when they accepted this bowl bid very early on. The Warriors didn't though. Rather, they responded by closing out the season on a 3-0 SU/ATS roll, winning by a combined score of 159-52. Naturally, they would have preferred to be playing on New Year's Day (what team wouldn't) but the fact that they did accept this bowl bid early on has given them plenty of time to get used to the idea. Spending Christmas at home, when you go to school in Hawaii, isn't so bad, anyway. (However, the exotic location can sometimes prove distracting to visiting teams.)
Note that the Warriors are 6-0 their last six games here. Five of the victories came by a minimum of 20 points. During that span, the only team to stay within single digits was a very good Nevada team - the Warriors beat the Wolfpack by six. In fact, the only loss the Warriors had here all season was against USC way back in Week 1. Hawaii was still getting used to its new team, yet nearly scored the outright victory. The Golden Hurricane have also had a strong season. Like the Warriors, they were blown out in one game. (They were crushed by Oklahoma State) Like the Warriors, they responded well and closed out the season on a winning roll. Tulsa certainly has a capable offense. The Golden Hurricane average 39.7 points and 503.5 yards. Those numbers are extremely close to Hawaii's 39.9 points and 496.8 yards. Although it should be noted that Tulsa averaged "only" 33.2 points and 438.3 yards on the road while Hawaii averaged 45 points and 555.7 yards at home. Its on the defensive side of the ball that the Warriors figure to have the advantage though. They allowed 22.7 points per game on the season, including 19.4 here at home. Opposing teams managed only 317.3 yards per game here. On the other hand, Tulsa allowed a whopping 32.7 points per road game while allowing opposing teams to pile up 470.2 total yards per road game. Tulsa has been particularly bad against the pass. In fact, the Golden Hurricane have one of the worst pass defenses in the nation, allowing an obscene 305.7 yards per game. As usual, Hawaii has the type of passing attack which is capable of taking advantage of a suspect secondary. The fact that Warriors lost this event the last time (2 years ago vs. ND) they were here figures to provide some added motivation. They were 7-0 ATS as favorites this season and I expect them to pad those stats with another double-digit win. *10 |
|||||||
12-23-10 | Navy v. San Diego State -3 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. Everyone saw Navy win and cover vs. Army in the final week of the regular season. Even though Army had a real shot at covering at the end and actually outgained the Midshipmen, the fact that Navy won has lingered in the minds of many casual bettors. While they know Navy and see them every year, many of these same bettors don't know much about San Diego State, which remains relatively unknown. That's helped in causing this line to fall considerably from its opener. What many don't seem to realize is that the Aztecs are a very good team. In fact, I already would have liked them before the line move - now, getting a better line, I like them even more.
I successfully played on the Aztecs in their game against TCU. While the Aztecs lost that game, the fact that they lost by only five (at TCU) was actually an accomplishment in itself, when considering that no other team stayed that close to the Horned Frogs all season. Oregon State stayed within nine of TCU but BYU, Utah, Baylor and Air Force lost by a combined score of 161-27. None of San Diego State's other losses came by greater than four points. Note that the Aztecs only home loss all season came vs. Utah (lost by 4) and that came right after the near upset of TCU, so the Aztecs may have been a little flat. I mention the Aztecs' home record as this game will be played at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego. Note that San Diego State outscored opponents by a 36.8 to 17.2 margin at home this season, outgaining teams by a 497.5 to 322.3 count. Don't think that the Aztecs are disappointed not to be going somewhere a little further from home though. Indeed, with this being their first bowl game since 1998, they're more than happy to be here and to show the nation how far they've come. Getting to play at San Diego gives them that much more confidence. Head Coach Brady Hoke noted: "We are excited to be playing a bowl game here in San Diego in front of our great students, fans and community." Before closing it should also be noted that these teams did have a common opponent (Air Force) this season. The Aztecs beat Air Force. The Midshipmen did not. Not just happy to be here, playing at Qualcomm, I look for the Aztecs to earn a bowl victory, covering the small number along the way. *10 |
|||||||
12-22-10 | Utah +17.5 v. Boise State | Top | 3-26 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. I had the Utes as my "Bowl GOY" in their bowl win against Alabama a couple of years ago. Listed as +9.5 point underdogs, most weren't giving them much of a chance. Yet, they rose to the occasion and delivered a 31-17 upset. I had a number of reasons for making them such a big play - one of them was that I felt they were the team which would be "happier" to be there. This year, the Utes are again matched up against an elite team and this time they're an even bigger underdog. Once again, however, I feel that they'll be the team which is "happier to be here." Once again, despite the huge number, I feel that they've got a real shot at the outright win.
Of course, winning at bowl games is nothing new for this well-coached Utah program. Including last year's double-digit win over Cal, the Utes have won nine consecutive postseason games. That's currently the longest streak in the country and the second best of all-time. Naturally, Utah would have liked to been involved in a bigger bowl game. In fact, for a time the Utes were really thinking big. However, the Utes have known that wasn't "reality" for quite some time, as they lost in early November to TCU. Utah coach Kyle Whittingham had this to say after his Utes accepted the invitation to be here: "We are very excited about our invitation to play in the MAACO Las Vegas Bowl. It's been a while since we have played a bowl game in Las Vegas and our players and coaches are looking forward to the opportunity. We are proud to represent the Mountain West Conference in its top bowl game and anticipate a strong turnout by our fans." While the Utes are expected to be without QB Jordan Wynn, backup Terrance Cain has enjoyed success when given the opportunity and he's surrounded by plenty of weapons. While the Broncos will also say that they are happy to be here, the reality is that this is not even close to where they wanted to be. The Broncos and their fans thought they had a real shot to play for the National title, right up until their kicker missed some critical field goals that cost them the game against Nevada. That heartbreaker came in late November, so they haven't had nearly as much chance to "accept their fate." While there is no denying that Boise is an extremely talented team, the Utes are no slouches either. They're very well-coached and are looking to redeem themselves from the embarrassing beatings handed to them by TCU and Notre Dame. The Utes are 43-22-1 ATS the last 66 times that they were listed as underdogs. During that stretch, they were also 26-10 ATS (30-6 SU) when playing with two or more week's worth of rest. I expect them to pad those stats here. *10 |
|||||||
12-21-10 | Louisville v. Southern Mississippi +3 | Top | 31-28 | Push | 0 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTHERN MISS. Despite going only 6-6 SU on the season, the Cardinals find themselves favored over a Southern Miss. team which was 8-4. I feel that provides us with excellent value.
Louisville is favored, even with its inferior record, primarily for a couple of reasons. For starters, the Big East is considered to be a stronger conference than Conference USA. I'll agree with that. However, its not exactly the SEC and the Cardinals were still 3-4 in Conference play. Louisville's victories came against Eastern Kentucky, Arkansas State, Memphis, Connecticut, Syracuse and Rutgers. The Cardinals lost to most of the better teams in the Big East (West Virg, Pitt, USF, Cincy) and their only "difficult" non-conference game (Oregon State) resulted in a loss. The Golden Eagles may have hailed from the weaker conference but at least they had a winning record (5-3) in conference play. Their most difficult non-conference game (at South Carolina) was arguably far more difficult than Louisville's toughest non-conf. game at Oregon State. They beat a WAC opponent (LA Tech) while also beating a Big 12 team (Kansas) by double-digits. Granted, those teams weren't that great - however, the point is that the Golden Eagles did win, both inside and outside their conference. (It should also be noted that Southern Miss went on the road at Central Florida and won by double-digits. That was the only conference loss for UCF, which finished 8-1 in conference play.) Coincidentally, these teams had a common opponent in Memphis. Both teams won convincingly. Louisville got to face the Tigers at Louisville and won 56-0. Southern Miss had to face the Tigers at Memphis, which obviously is more difficult than playing at home, and won 41-19. Both teams held a commanding edge in total yards. I would argue that those victories were equally impressive. Louisville won by more but did so at home. While that point is debatable - and really a matter of what impresses you more, I find it interesting that both teams were laying exactly the same number of points (-16.5) for their game vs. Memphis. In other words, given that Southern Miss. played the Tigers on the road, the Golden Eagles were being given considerably more respect by the oddsmakers, at the time. The Golden Eagles are an experienced bowl team, as they've been "bowling" in 12 of the last 13 years. Note that they've gone 7-5 in the previous 12 of those. The fact that one of those losses came last season figures to have them extra hungry here and they should be happy to have a chance to beat a team from the Big East. Coach Larry Fedora was quoted as saying: "We are extremely excited about the opportunity to play in St. Petersburg in Florida. It is a great area with great weather and we have the opportunity to play a quality opponent from the Big East. We are thrilled about being able to play another game." The Golden Eagles have a balanced offense, which is very capable of both running and passing. QB Austin Davis completed over 60 percent of his passes and had 18 TDs with only six interceptions. While he's thrown for more than 240 yards per game, he's complemented by a potent ground game which averaged greater than 200 yards per game, featuring a number of talented backs. I feel they'll have some success on the ground against the Cardinals. The Golden Eagles are generally fairly tough against the run as they allowed a respectable 3.6 yards per carry. If they have a weakness, its in the secondary. However, with Louisville's QB situation somewhat unsettled and Louisville being primarily a running team, the Cardinals don't necessarily have the offense to exploit that. Another reason that Louisville is favored is that the Cardinals were more impressive in the final game of the regular season. And, the final game tends to leave a lasting impression in people's minds. However, let's keep in mind who the opposing teams were. Louisville beat up on a bad Rutgers team, one which finished 1-6 in Big East play. Southern Miss lost a close one (6 point loss) at Tulsa, the best team from the CUSA West Division. Other than that six point loss at Tulsa, and their opening loss at South Carolina, note that the Golden Eagles' other two losses both came by only one point. Additionally, in regards to the results from the final game, note that Cardinals 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS the last four times that they were coming off a conference victory. On the other hand, the Golden Eagles are 2-0 SU/ATS off this season's previous two conference losses. The Golden Eagles are 18-9-1 against Louisville. They lost the last meeting (in 2009) but that loss came by two points on a last minute field goal. While I look for the Golden Eagles to win this game outright, in a game that could also be close, I'll gladly grab any points they're offering. *10 |
|||||||
12-18-10 | Ohio +2.5 v. Troy State | Top | 21-48 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
I
|
|||||||
12-04-10 | Nebraska v. Oklahoma -4 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. This is a big game featuring a pair of big name programs. Both teams are talented, well-coached and playing well. The Huskers, who head to the Big 10 next season, would love to exit the Big 12 on top. Many will expect them to do so. I'm not one of them. While the Big 12 conference may have belonged to the Huskers in the late 90s, for the most part, its belonged to Oklahoma (and Texas) since that time. The last thing Stoops and the Sooners want to do is to let the Huskers leave as the best team. Anyway, my point is that while some may expect Nebraska to be the more motivated team, in my opinion, both teams should be equally "hungry." That said, it should come down to talent and matchups and I feel that will provide Oklahoma with the advantage.
The Huskers beat the Sooners last season. That was at Lincoln though, while tonight's game will be at Arlington. The Huskers won that game in large part because they were able to shut down Oklahoma QB Landry Jones. He's got another year under his belt now though and he's on absolute fire at the moment. In fact, he's thrown for 1,853 yards in his last five games - the best total in the country since Oct. 30 - and a whopping 17 touchdowns. While the Nebraska defense remains worthy of respect, I expect Jones to have a MUCH better showing here than he did last season. While Oklahoma should benefit from improved QB play from last season, Nebraska has some issues behind center. QB Taylor Martinez, the player largely responsible for the Huskers' offensive success this season, is banged up with an ankle injury. He'll probably see at least some playing time here, but as running is a big part of his game, an ankle injury figures to have an effect. Nebraska coach Bo Pelini was quoted as saying: "We'll play the guy we feel is going to give us the best chance to win the game, and it might be a combination of the two." Stoops may not always come through in the bowls but his Sooners are 4-0 in the Big 12 Championship game since 2004. That includes a 21-7 win over the Huskers in 2006. I expect another victory for Stoops' crew here and look for them to cover the small number along the way, avenging last season's loss and improving to 8-3-1 ATS the last dozen times that they played on a neutral field with an O/U line in the 52 to 56 range. *10 |
|||||||
12-04-10 | Nevada v. Louisiana Tech +8.5 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA TECH. I had Nevada last week. However, I feel this will prove to be an excellent spot to go against them.
If there's ever a good spot for a letdown for the Wolfpack, this figures to be it. Nevada coach Chris Ault called last week's win: "It is the greatest victory this university's ever had in football I can tell you that. I wasn't here in 1898, but some of my players think I was." Off a victory of that magnitude, even though this is still a big game, it may be easy for the Wolfpack to "relax" a little vs. lightly regarded LA Tech. That will prove costly though as the Bulldogs are quietly playing well. Note that Nevada is just 3-6 ATS the last nine times it was favored in the -3.5 to -10 range, including an 0-2 ATS mark as a road favorite in the -7.5 to -10 range. The Bulldogs are off back to back road wins, scoring 86 combined points in the process. They're 2-2 SU their last four home games but both losses came by six points or less, one by only a single point. Looking back further and we find the Bulldogs at a profitable 11-3 ATS their last 14 home lined games. They're also an excellent 11-2 ATS their last 13 games against teams with a winning record, going 6-2-1 ATS the last nine times that they were underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range. The Bulldogs were blown out at Nevada last season but they played the Wolfpack tough when the teams met here in 2008, losing by only four. Playing their final home game and desperate to become bowl eligible, I expect them to give their guests all they can handle again here. *10 |
|||||||
12-03-10 | Illinois v. Fresno State +6 | Top | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on FRESNO STATE. The Illini have been a more "profitable" team than the Bulldogs. Illinois is a lucrative 8-3 ATS on the season. Fresno State, on the hand, is just 4-6 ATS in its lined games. However, at 7-4 SU, Fresno State still has the better SU record, as Illinois is only 6-5. In this case, a SU win will also ensure an ATS victory. In fact, we're even getting more than a field goal to work with on the home underdog. I believe that provides us with excellent value.
The Bulldogs have long been excellent as home underdogs in this range. They're 6-2 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. Five of those games resulted in outright wins. On the other hand, during the same stretch, the Illini were 1-3-1 ATS (2-3) SU, when listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. They're 6-11 ATS as favorites overall the past few seasons, 0-3 ATS as road favorites. While the Illini offense has been clicking, the defense has been vulnerable. In fact, they've given up more than 130 points their past three games. The Illini did have last week off - but this is still a long ways from home - for a regular season non-conference game, against a team which traditionally isn't a 'rival,' even one which beat them (53-52) last season. This game may not have an impact on where the Bulldogs go bowling. Its still their final home game of the season though, the final home game ever for the seniors. It also may have an impact on Pat Hill's future. Even though, he's got a contract, until the Bulldogs start beating the likes of Nevada and Boise, Hill's job may not be entirely secure. A victory on National TV here would go a long way, particularly with the 51-0 loss to Boise still in everyone's recent memory. In other words, there should be no shortage of motivation. These teams met last season and played a thriller that was decided by a single point. Additionally, the Bulldogs have seen three of their last four games decided by six points or less while the Illini have seen two of their last three decided by four or less. Given those results, I feel that this one could also easily come down to the wire and am grabbing the points. *10 |
|||||||
11-27-10 | Kansas State v. North Texas +15 | Top | 49-41 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTH TEXAS. Some may argue that the Wildcats have more to play for. They've got six wins on the season. However, they're off back to back losses and a seventh victory would strengthen their case for a bowl bid. In my opinion, however, the Mean Green have every bit as much to play for, if not more.
Not only is this the home finale for the Mean Green but its also their final home game ever at Fouts Field. Naturally, they'd really like to close the doors with a victory. True, the Wildcats play in a much better conference than North Texas. They've been inconsistent though and with four losses in their last five games, I don't feel that they deserve to be laying 2+ touchdowns here. Not when they're below .500 on the road, where they give up more than 444 yards and 31 points per game. Note that this is the third straight road game for the Wildcats, who gave up 44 points and nearly 500 yards at Colorado last week. While outright wins haven't been easy to come by, the Mean Green have been competitive nearly every week, for the past couple of months. They're 3-5 SU their last eight games but only one of those eight games resulted in a loss of greater than 12 points - and that was more than a month ago, before the coaching chance. In their last home game, the Mean Green covered vs. a solid Troy team, losing by six. Note that the Mean Green lead the Sun Belt Conference and rank among the top 25 teams in the country in terms of rushing offense. They've averaged 193.5 yards per game on the ground. They'll be up against a K-State defense which has been abused on the ground for weeks now. Clearly, North Texas has played much better under Mike Canales, who is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS as interim coach. Canales is a candidate to keep the job and one would have to think that a win here would certainly improve his chances. I expect Canales to have the Mean Green ready and I look for them to be in this one the entire way. *10 |
|||||||
11-27-10 | Washington Huskies v. California -6.5 | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. I had a big win with the Huskies in their last game. That was a home win vs. UCLA though, on a rare Thursday night game in Washington. I knew the Huskies hadn't beaten UCLA in recent seasons and I knew they'd be hungry to do in front of the national audience, particularly as it was the final home game of Locker and the Huskies' many other seniors career. The Huskies rose to the occasion and came through with a double-digit win. Now, however, they step up in class to take on a California team which will be playing its home finale and which figures to be extremely motivated.
Cal has a ton to play for. The Bears come off back to back losses. Those games were against Oregon and Stanford though, teams that defeated the Huskies by a combined score of 94-16. So, they'll be looking to snap their skid. Most importantly, they also need a win to reach 6-6 on the season which would make them bowl eligible. Additionally, the Huskies upset them last season, embarrassing them in the process. Lastly, this is their home finale and the final game at Memorial Stadium until 2012, as it will undergo renovations. While the Huskies did beat them 42-10 at Washington last season, the Bears pounded them 48-7 when the teams met here in 2008. True, the Huskies also need a win to keep their bowl hopes alive. However, while this is Cal's final game, the Huskies would have to win here and then also go on the road and win at Washington State. Yes, they'd love to win both those games. However, having won their home finale - even if they lose this one - if they can beat rival Washington State next week, the Huskies would still probably be somewhat happy with themselves - even though they'd never admit it. Not so for Cal. Anything less than a win here will be a major disappointment for the Bears. Note that Cal has gone to seven straight bowls. Even with last week's win, the Huskies are still 4-6 and QB Locker is still struggling and still less than 100% healthy. Last week, it was the ground game, not Locker, which won it for the Huskies. He was just 10-of-21 for 68 yds with an INT last week. For the season, the Huskies are only 1-3 on the road, where they've been outscored by an average score of 37.7 to 19.7. The Bears have been much better at home than on the road all season. The only two losses here were against Oregon and Stanford and they nearly beat the Ducks, losing by a score of only 15-13. Even factoring in the blowout loss to Stanford, the Bears are still outscoring opponents by a commanding 36 to 16 margin here. Opposing teams are managing a mere 247 yards per game here. While the Huskies are 2-10 SU/ATS the last 12 times that they played a road game where the total ranged between 49.5 and 52, the Bears are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS when playing a home game with a total in the 49.5 to 52 range and a perfect 10-0 SU/ATS when playing a home game with a total in the 49.5 to 56 range. The Bears don't lose two in a row often. They're 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they did though. I expect them to pad those stats with a convincing win and cover to close out Memorial Stadium this afternoon. *10 |
|||||||
11-26-10 | Boise State v. Nevada +14.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEVADA. I narrowly won with the Wolfpack when these teams faced each other last season. Getting +12 or +13 points, Nevada rallied from a larger deficit and lost by 11. The previous season's game, the most recent here at Nevada, also finished very close to the number. Boise State was favored by -6.5 points and won by seven. This year's game is back at Nevada. Yet, we're getting an even higher number on the underdog Wolfpack than we were for last year's game on the blue turf. With all due respect to the Broncos, who are indeed a very strong team, I believe that provides excellent value with the home underdog.
Boise State has yet to really be challenged since the opening week of the season and the Broncos did come through for me in a big way against Hawaii. That was at home though and their road schedule has been quite 'easy.' To their credit, the Broncos did win a close game vs. a good Virginia Tech team at a 'neutral site.' However, just like last season, when they caught Oregon in the opening week, they may have been fortunate to face the Hokies before they really got rolling. Either way, that was the Broncos only difficult game, that wasn't on the blue turf, and they only won by three points. Other road games came at Idaho, San Jose State, New Mexico State and Wyoming. Idaho, San Jose St. and New Mexico St. all have losing records and are a combined 3-16 in WAC play. Meanwhile, Wyoming is 3-9 on the season and 1-7 in the Mountain West. Needless to say, Nevada is a far better team and a far more difficult venue than Wyoming, New Mex. St, San Jose St or Idaho. Indeed, the Wolfpack are 10-1 on the season including 6-0 at home. While Boise squeaked past V-Tech in non-conference action, Nevada beat both California AND BYU by double-digits, when stepping outside the WAC. Since their lone defeat (lost by 6 at Hawaii) the Wolfpack are averaging greater than 50 points per game. They've got the offense to go toe to toe vs. the Broncos and I look for them to do just that, improving to 9-3 ATS in November the past three seasons. *10 |
|||||||
11-26-10 | Buffalo v. Akron -1 | 14-22 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm playing on AKRON. This game features a pair of teams which have both had very disappointing seasons. While Buffalo (2-9) does have the better record, Akron (0-11) has arguably been playing better football in recent weeks.
While they're still winless on the season, the Zips have been very close in their last two games. Two games ago, they lost to Ball State in overtime. Last week, the Zips fell 19-14 to Miami-Ohio, a game that they were leading in the third quarter and were in the entire way. I had them in that game and I was impressed with their effort. Now, they get a chance to face a team which is struggling arguably even more than they are. That provides the Zips with an excellent chance to snap the winless streak and I look for them to make the most of it. The Bulls also lost a close game last time out. That was at home against a bad Eastern Michigan team though and they still couldn't win. (Akron never got to play Eastern Michigan, the team with the worst record in the MAC West.) Prior to that, the Bulls had lost five straight by double-digits. Its safe to say that Akron coach Rob Ianello really wants this one, as this is his first year and he's still winless. He was quoted as saying: "We are looking forward to playing at home this week. This is the last opportunity for the 2010 team to be together. It is Senior Day here at Akron and we have some players who have done a lot for this program, and who are going to be honored this Friday in front of our home crowd. I know our team is looking forward to the opportunity against Buffalo." In addition to playing at home, the Zips have had a couple more days of preparation. They last played on 11/17, Buffalo last played on 11/20. A victory here makes this dismal season seem a whole lot better to the Zips. They're 4-1 SU the last five times that they hosted the Bulls and I look for them to improve on those stats here. *9 |
|||||||
11-25-10 | Texas A&M v. Texas +3.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS. I won with the Longhorns last week. Laying roughly three touchdowns against Florida Atlantic, they won by a score of 51-17, recording more than 500 yards of offense. That victory snapped a 4-game losing skid and kept their bowl hopes alive. Having gotten the monkey off their back, if only partially, I expect the Longhorns to build some positive momentum and look for them to follow it up with another victory here.
The Aggies are also off a victory and they've admittedly been playing very well in recent weeks. They're far from unbeatable on the road though. In four games away from College Station, they've gone 2-2. They won at Baylor and Kansas while losing at Oklahoma State and a "neutral site" (Arlington) game vs. Arkansas. While the Aggies would clearly love to win, the Longhorns have plenty of motivation. Not only would a victory, on National TV, help to ease their disappointment but it would also make them bowl eligible. As Mack Brown noted: "If we can do our job Thursday night, there's absolutely no doubt that we'll be excited to go wherever. There's no such thing as a bad bowl." Texas linebacker Emmanuel Acho added. "...This is going to be the biggest game of the season, but if we take what we did Saturday and improve on it, we are going to do very well." Yes, the Aggies come in with the higher ranking. The Longhorns are still arguably the more talented team though and they've playing at home. Its also interesting to note that the last time these teams faced each other when only Texas A&M was ranked was back in 1998. The Aggies were #6 at the time while the Longhorns were unranked. Texas still won. With an O/U line in the high 40s, note that the Aggies are a dismal 2-12 ATS the last 14 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range and 4-10 ATS when playing on a Thursday. During the same stretch, the Longhorns have gone 9-4 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range and 6-3 SU/ATS when playing on a Thursday. I'll grab the points but I look for the Longhorns, 16-1 SU their last 17 home finales, to improve on those stats by scoring the outright "upset." *10 |
|||||||
11-20-10 | San Jose State +29.5 v. Hawaii | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE STATE. I successfully played against the Warriors in their last game, a blowout loss at Boise State. They're back home now and they've had an extra week to "lick their wounds" and to prepare for San Jose State. As a result, most will expect them to bounce back with a blowout victory. After all, they'd been pretty impressive before those loss to the Broncos. While they may indeed bounce back with a solid win, in my opinion, asking them to win by greater than four touchdowns is asking too much.
The Warriors, 1-2 SU/ATS the last three times they were coming off a bye, had a big winning streak snapped in the loss at Boise. That was a huge game for them - this one is not. I believe that it will have been hard for them to put Boise out of their heads these past two weeks and that fully focusing on San Jose State will have been difficult. Keep in mind that the Warriors have already accepted an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl. The Spartans haven't been winning. However, they have been competitive - at least recently. Last week, they lost by four points vs. Utah State. The previous week, in their last road game, they lost by two at New Mexico State. Before that they lost by 15 vs. Fresno State and before that they lost by 22 at Nevada. Other than the Nevada game, which was still a cover, their only "blowout loss" in conference play was vs. Boise State. As already mentioned, Hawaii was also blown out by the Broncos. These Spartans are a "battle-tested bunch" and their ugly overall record is due in part to the fact that they played a killer non-conference schedule. They began the season at Alabama. The next week, they were at Wisconsin. Two weeks later, they were at Utah. Overall, the Spartans have been outgained pretty significantly - again, that's partly due to the schedule. However, over their last three games they've only been outgained by a 437 to 406 margin, in terms of total yards. Led by senior quarterback Jordan La Secla, the Spartans have thrown for 300-plus yards in three straight games with seven touchdown passes. The Spartans finished only 2-10 last season but still played Hawaii very tough, as they have for a few seasons in a row now. The Warriors won last season's meeting by a 17-10 score, in overtime. The previous season, at Hawaii, San Jose State scored an outright win. Before that, in 2007, the Spartans hung within seven, losing 42-35. I look for this one to be closer than most are expecting once again and am grabbing the generous points. *10 |
|||||||
11-20-10 | Florida Atlantic v. Texas -21 | Top | 17-51 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS. As you know, its been a very disappointing season for the Longhorns. A "blowout" win over Florida Atlantic won't change that fact. That said, it would make this team feel a lot better about itself. It would also keep the Longhorns' "bowl" hopes alive and give them some much needed momentum for next week's final vs. Texas A&M. The Longhorns have serious talent edges in this game and I expect them to come together and demonstrate that this afternoon.
While there's no denying Texas has the talent and athletic advantage, some may fear that the Longhorns have quit on the season. I don't expect that to be an issue though. Coach Mack Brown concurs. He was quoted as saying: "We've asked the kids to make sure they've committed for 12 days on Saturday. ... We want the kids to keep fighting. We said you cannot have the season you want, but you can't ever quit. If you quit, what an awful message to you in the rest of your life -- I don't see them doing that." While the Longhorns are 14-0 SU against teams currently in the Sun Belt, the Owls are 0-5 SU/ATS their last five against teams from the Big 12. The Owls have been terrible in non-conference road games for years. The last time that they played a non-conference opponent with any type of talent on 10/2, when they visited South Florida. That resulted in a 31-3 blowout loss. Including that result, they're just 7-12 SU/ATS on the road, the past few seasons. Given the fact that they need a win to keep their bowl hopes alive, there will be no looking past the Owls. Texas senior James Kirkendoll said this of the team's current state of mind: "I think at this point we have a sense of urgency. It doesn't matter who we play. We have to win the next two games if we want to go to a bowl game." These teams met here in 2008. Before the game Florida Atlantic coach Howard Schnellenberger suggested that Texas was "soft" and vulnerable against "smash-mouth football." The Longhorns went on to punish the Owls with a commanding 232-37 edge on the ground, which led to a 31-13 advantage in first downs. The final score was 52-10 in favor of the Longhorns. They've got a lot of frustration to take out and I look for a similarly lopsided result here. *10 |
|||||||
11-20-10 | Wisconsin v. Michigan +4.5 | 48-28 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MICHIGAN. You probably heard about Wisconsin's 83-20 victory over Indiana last week. Admittedly, that's pretty impressive.
However, a home game against Indiana and a road game at Michigan are two entirely different matters. Of course, the Badgers are well aware of this fact as they're an absolutely awful 1-17 their last 18 here in Ann Arbor, including 0-5 the last five. Now, in part because of last week's lopsided score, the Badgers are being asked to win by more than a field goal. I believe that's asking too much and feel that we're getting excellent value with the talented home underdog. Note that the Badgers were favored by -4.5 points here in 2008. Michigan erased a 19-0 halftime deficit and won 27-25. Including that result, the Badgers are 0-2 SU/ATS the last two times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. The Wolverines haven't been covering - which has helped us even further, in terms of line value. However, they are off back to back wins. They average better than 520 yards per game while scoring 37.7 points. In a game that could come down to the wire, I'll grab the points. However, I expect the Wolverines to continue their homefield dominance in the series and look for them to score the outright upset. *9 |
|||||||
11-20-10 | North Carolina State v. North Carolina -2.5 | 29-25 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. The Wolfpack come in with the better record. However, I believe that the Tar Heels are favored for good reason. In fact, while I respect Russell Wilson and the Wolfpack, I feel that the Tar Heels could easily be laying more points.
Keep in mind that the Tar Heels were -6 point favorites at NC State last season and -13 point favorites here the previous season. While the Wolfpack are 3-5 SU off a conference victory the past few seasons, (0-3 this season) the Tar Heels are 7-3 when coming off a conference loss. Note that the Wolfpack have lost back to back road games. This is the 100th meeting in this fierce instate rivalry and it goes without saying that both teams badly want to win. I expect the Tar Heels to be just a little "hungrier" though. Not only have the Wolfpack beaten them three straight times, but this is the Tar Heels final home game. This team had dealt with a lot of adversity and has many seniors. They want to go out on top and what better way than by beating the hated Wolfpack in the 100th all-time meeting of the series and their final game in front of their home fans. I look for them to get it done, covering the small number along the way. *9 |
|||||||
11-20-10 | Penn State v. Indiana +10.5 | 41-24 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on INDIANA. As you know, the Hoosiers were absolutely destroyed last week. That type of loss is embarrassing and players generally follow it up by working hard in practice and giving their best effort the next game. I expect that to be the case here.
The Nittany Lions also come off a loss - theirs may be tougher to bounce back from though. They were up on Ohio State but fell apart and ended up getting blown out. Note that Penn State is 2-3 ATS its last five when coming off a conference loss. Note that prior to last week's loss, the Hoosiers had seen their previous two games (vs. Iowa and Northwestern) decided by three and five points. The Hoosiers covered against the Nittany Lions each of the past two seasons, including a 11 point loss at Penn State (as 24 pt dogs) last season. I expect them to bounce back with a highly motivated effort and for that to lead to at least another cover here. *9 |
|||||||
11-19-10 | Fresno State +30.5 v. Boise State | Top | 0-51 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on FRESNO STATE. There is no denying that the Broncos are a powerful team, particularly here on their blue turf. Indeed, they've outscored opponents by an average of 46.2 to 16.2 in going undefeated here this season. Tonight's opponent is a lot more talented than the majority of the other teams that the Broncos have been beating up on recently. That said, I believe this line is too high.
The Bulldogs lost their last game. That was by just a single point vs. a potent Nevada team though. Speaking of the Wolfpack, note that Boise plays at Nevada next week. As the Broncos have had that game circled, as this season's one possible stumbling block, it may be pretty easy to look past Frenso here, particularly considering that they've (mostly) handled the Broncos with ease over the years. (Fresno did win 27-7 in 2005.) Speaking of Nevada, the Bulldogs very nearly beat the Wolfpack last week. They were winning in the fourth quarter and lost by a score of 35-34. While that was certainly a tough loss, it also showed that the Bulldogs are capable of trading punches with a high-scoring team - there were seven lead changes in that game. Granted, a home game against Nevada is a whole different story from a game on the blue turf, against this Bronco team. However, my point is that Fresno has been playing at a high level and should have confidence to believe it can compete. Prior to that, the Bulldogs had won three straight, outscoring opponents by a 106-62 margin. Two of those wins came on the road. While the Boise run defense is admittedly very good, Fresno's Robbie Rouse has rushed for more than 500 yards the past two weeks alone. By keeping the clock moving, the Fresno ground game should help lessen the amount of time that Kellen Moore and the Boise offense spends on the field. Speaking of Moore, he'll be up against a Fresno State defense which is holding opponents to 193.9 passing yards per game. In the WAC, only Boise allows less. The Broncos are currently giving up 165.9. The Bulldogs, who lost by 17 vs. Boise last season, are 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were underdogs of greater than three touchdowns. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight, giving their hosts a tougher game than most are expecting and hanging within the inflated number. *10 |
|||||||
11-18-10 | UCLA Bruins v. Washington Huskies -2 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. These teams both had last week off. That break figures to have come at a better time for the Huskies. That's because they'd been absolutely destroyed in their last three games, losing by a combined score of 138-30. In fairness, those three games came against three of the best teams in the conference (Arizona, Stanford and Oregon) and two of them came on the road.
That said, after losing three in a row by 30 or more, a break was much-needed. On the other hand, after beating Oregon State last time out, the Bruins probably wouldn't have minded if they played at Washington last week. Also, the added time gives the Huskies more time to prepare for the "pistol" offense, which UCLA has been running. While the Bruins do have the slightly better record, they've still lost their last two road games by a combined score of 95-20. Looking back further and we find the Bruins at an ugly 5-15 SU their last 20 road games. Admittedly, the Bruins have dominated the Huskies, from a w/l standpoint, in recent years. UCLA is 3-0 SU the last three meetings and 11-3 SU the last 14. However, a closer look reveals that the Huskies have actually gone 3-2 ATS the last five meetings. Last season's meeting, which was played at UCLA, was decided by a single point, 24-23 in favor of the Bruins. The Huskies brought back more returning starters (18-13) from those teams than did the Bruins, incl. QB Jake Locker. Speaking of Locker, while he's still listed as questionable, I fully expect him to get the start here. After Tuesday's practice Coach Sarkisian 'tweeted,' "Jake Locker is cleared to play!" Clearly, this was not the year that Locker had in mind. However, this is a chance for some redemption. He gets to play his final home game ever and he gets to do it on National TV, against a team which has always dominated his team. A big win here will go a LONG way. He's highly talented and I expect him to be the "leader" that his team needs here. Thursday games don't come around here very often. In fact, the Huskies haven't played anywhere on a Thursday since a 1999 game at BYU. That makes this is a very BIG game, particularly with former coach Neuhisal returning to town. Even bigger, the Huskies need to win this game to keep their bowl hopes alive. Find a way to win here - and there's still hope. Needless to say, the crowd should be very enthusiastic. Locker is just one of 16 seniors playing their final home game. Its been a long haul and this is their chance to go out on top. Wearing their black uniforms and with the crowd all in black, I expect Locker and co. to come away with the victory, covering the small number along the way. *10 |
|||||||
11-17-10 | Miami v. Akron +9.5 | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on AKRON. Miami Ohio has a winning record and comes in on a roll. Akron is winless. No brainer on the visitors, right? Not in my opinion!
This is a huge game for the Zips. This is their chance to earn a win and to do it on "TV" (ESPNU). I believe that they've got the "situation" in their favor. Akron was competitive last time out. Playing on the road, at Ball State, they lost by seven. That was back on 11/6, so they've had plenty of preparation time. Miami Ohio, which has shown a tendency to let teams back in the game, is also off a close road game. The Redhawks won by three, at Bowling Green. They've had a "normal" week of rest, as that game was also on a Wednesday. However, this will be their third straight road game, which can be challenging. In fact, this is their fifth road game in their past six games. The Redhawks have won three of their last four games. However, the three wins came by an average of only seven points. In fact, only one of the Redhawks six road games resulted in a win of greater than seven points and that came by just 12. Even with last week's victory, the Redhawks are still 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS in November the past few seasons. With an O/U line in the high 40s, it also worth noting that the Redhawks are a dismal 1-11 SU/ATS the last dozen times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range, incl. 0-5 SU/ATS their last five in that situation. The Redhawks, who have a banged-up starting QB, haven't fared as well as road favorites in this range. With Akron, 14-5 its last 19 November home games, "desperate" for a win, I'm grabbing all the points that I can get. *10 |
|||||||
11-13-10 | Oklahoma State Cowboys v. Texas +5.5 | 33-16 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TEXAS. Texas is among the biggest disappointments in the country this season. The Longhorns have been an elite team for many years and most figured that this year would be the same. While that hasn't proved to be the case, the Longhorns are still loaded with talent. I've only played on the Longhorns once this season and that was the game in which they won at Nebraska. I believe that they're more than capable of delivering another upset this evening.
Even with this season's disappointing results, the Longhorns are still an awesome 90-19 their last 109 at home, including 14-3 the last 17. The Longhorns have also dominated the Cowboys, winning 12 straight. In fact, the last (and only) time that the Cowboys ever won here in Austin was way back in 1944! The Cowboys know that Texas will be tough, regardless of its recent results. Oklahoma State senior Shane Jarka had this to say of the Longhorns: "There's not been a game that I've played Texas that they have not come out and played hard-nosed, smashmouth football..." Including the win at Nebraska, the Longhorns are 28-15 ATS the last 43 times that they were getting points. Texas is a home underdog for the first time since October of 1999, a game they won outright. While I'll grab the points, the Longhorns haven't lost four consecutive home games in a single season since 1956 and I look for them to step up and score the 'upset,' continuing their longstanding dominance in this series. *9 |
|||||||
11-13-10 | Oregon v. California +20.5 | 15-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. We know that Oregon is a very good football team. The Ducks are very well-coached and they're extremely potent on the offensive side of the ball. I successfully played on them against Stanford several weeks ago and they've continued to roll, ever since. That said, with everyone else aware of how good they are, the lines on the Ducks have really started to get "out of control." I feel that's the case here and that this line is simply too high.
Consider that in Oregon's last road game (at USC) the Ducks were laying only a touchdown or less. Earlier in the season, playing at Arizona State, they were laying -12.5. (The Ducks won those games by 21 at USC and 11 at ASU.) Now, they're being asked to lay nearly three touchdowns against a talented California team. I believe that's asking too much. I won with the Ducks in last year's game against Cal. However, that was at Oregon and the Bears were favored. That now seems hard to believe, which again emphasizes my point about this line being too high. The previous season, in the most recent came here at Cal, the Bears won by a score of 26-16. While the Bears have had trouble on the road, they're a perfect 4-0 here at home. They've won those games by a combined score of 189-34, which works out to an average of 47.2 to 8.5. They're now an awesome 12-3 ATS (13-2 SU) their last 15 home lined games. The Ducks failed to cover last week and are now 3-5 ATS in November the past 2+ seasons. I expect them to have their hands full here. *8 |
|||||||
11-13-10 | South Carolina v. Florida -6.5 | Top | 36-14 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA. The Gamecocks have been good to me in recent seasons, both on and against. This season, I've only been involved in one of their games. I had a big (10*) play on them in their game against Alabama. Getting +6.5 or +7 points, the Gamecocks won the game outright. While that win showed the Gamecocks are capable of beating any opponent, it should be noted that it came at home. It should also be noted that South Carolina has been inconsistent since that victory. In fact, even though they've been favored in all four games, they're just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS since the win over Alabama. Last time out, they were crushed 41-20 by Arkansas. Now, they'll face a talented Florida team which has started to click on all cylinders, seemingly just at the right time.
Both teams come in at 6-3 and both are 4-3 in conference play. That makes this is an absolutely huge game, for both teams. Indeed, the winner heads to Atlanta for the SEC Championship game. Obviously, South Carolina desperately wants this game. The program has never been there. The Gamecocks have been humbled by Florida over and over again and got absolutely destroyed last season. Of course, there's also the "Spurrier factor," as the former Gator legend would dearly love a win on Saturday. Don't think the Gators don't want this game every bit as much though. Center Mike Pouncey had this to say of the Gators' mindset and about what this week's game means: "...I feel like we're back on track. It means a lot. Our whole goal in the offseason is to get to Atlanta. If you would have told me we would have lost three games and still had a chance to win this last game and go to the SEC championship, I wouldn't take it back for nothing in the world." We can probably cut South Carolina a little slack for last week's blowout loss vs. Arkansas. After all, the Gamecocks knew they were going to have to beat Florida, no matter what happened. That said, they still would have surely preferred to be heading into this week's game with some positive momentum and one can't simply ignore the fact that they were outgained by a 443-295 margin. On the other hand, the Gators followed up a momentum-building victory over Georgia by destroying Vanderbilt. They outgained the Commodores by a 480-109 margin. Admittedly, Arkansas is a much tougher opponent than Vanderbilt. However, my point is that the Gators enter the game with positive momentum, while the Gamecocks do not. While the Gamecocks did manage a win at Vanderbilt in their last road game, they're still an awful 4-11 their last 15 road games, going 1-4 ATS in the last five of those. South Carolina's secondary is an area of weakness that Florida should be able to exploit. The Gamecocks' pass defense (264.7 yards per game) ranks just 109th in the nation. Note that Chris Culliver is out for the season and fellow starting cornerback C.C. Whitlock is currently recovering from a concussion. Speaking of "pass defense," note that the Florida secondary has 18 interceptions, tied for first in the country. Florida coach Urban Meyer had this to say of his team: "It's not how you start; it's how you finish, and I think we're finishing strong." Speaking of finishing strong, note that Meyer's Gators are now a perfect 10-0 SU in November the past 2+ seasons, going 7-2 ATS in lined games. In fact, my assistant tells me that the Gators are 19-0 their last 19 November games, going 11-2 ATS their last 13. Its also worth noting that the Gators are 9-2 SU/ATS the last 11 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. I expect Meyer's team to keep on rolling for another day, recording another double-digit victory and continuing the Gators' long-standing dominance in this "rivalry." *10 |
|||||||
11-13-10 | San Diego State Aztecs +28.5 v. TCU Horned Frogs | 35-40 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. We know that TCU is a very good football team. The Horned Frogs are very well-coached and they're extremely tough on both sides of the ball. I played on them to blow out Air Force a few weeks ago and they did exactly that, earning a convincing 38-7 victory. The Frogs have followed that up with back to back blowout victories, including a 47-7 destruction of undefeated Utah, on the road, last week. Off that huge win and with the Frogs seemingly determined to "impress" by blowing out as many teams as possible, the betting public will see them laying "only" around four touchdowns here and will think that they're getting a "bargain" on the home team. With all due respect to TCU, I don't believe that will prove to be the case.
Even though this is their home finale and even though they are very well coached, if there's ever a spot for a "letdown," this could well be it. That's because last weeks' game was among the very biggest in Mountain West Conference history. As mentioned, everyone knows how strong TCU is. Many are unaware that San Diego State is quietly having an outstanding season. Indeed, the Aztecs are 7-2 on the year and are just outside the Top 25. Both losses (at Missouri and at BYU) came by only three points. They enter this game with a 4-game winning streak. Playing their best football in years has given the Aztecs confidence. They've got no pressure on them at all here, as most everyone expects them to get blown out. They're determined to do everything that they can to spoil TCU's season and final game at the current version of Amon G. Carter Stadium. While an outright upset will likely ultimately prove to be too much to ask, I do expect the Aztecs to give the Frogs their toughest game yet. They Aztecs are 8-3 ATS the last 11 times that they were road underdogs of greater than three touchdowns and I look for them to improve on those stats here. *8 |
|||||||
11-13-10 | Utah v. Notre Dame +6 | Top | 3-28 | Win | 100 | 52 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. Last Saturday, I successfully played against a couple of teams (Michigan State and Missouri) which had just suffered their first loss. In each case, they'd been undefeated and really starting to "dream big." In each case, those dreams were shattered with a blowout loss. Neither was able to respond with a cover. This week, Utah is among the teams which is coming off its first loss. Once again, just like the Spartans and Tigers, the Utes were really starting to get excited about their bowl prospects. However, playing one of their biggest games in years, they were absolutely destroyed by TCU. They'd love to immediately "bounce back" with a blowout victory of their own and many will expect them to. That's a lot easier said than done though. While the Utes are a well-coached team, the players are still only kids. Seeing all one's dreams suddenly go "up in smoke" is difficult and emotional losses generally do have an affect.
Don't expect the Irish to "feel sorry" for the Utes though. They've had a disappointing season thus far. A big win over a Top 20 team like Utah would get them to .500 and would make things seem a whole lot better. It would also get them back to .500 on the season. While the Utes were busy getting crushed, the Irish had last week off. That bye came at a good time as it allowed the Irish more time to prepare for a tough Utah team. That figures to be particularly valuable for freshman QB Tommy Rees. Note that Rees came on in relief of Crist last game and threw for over 330 yards with four touchdowns. Of course, it helps having a bigtime receiver like Michael Floyd to throw to. Note that Rees and Floyd connected on 11 passes for 104 yards and two touchdowns, Coach Kelly said this of Rees: "You can see the strengths that Tommy has in picking up a game plan, where it comes natural to him. It's you go into a practice and he understands what you're trying to accomplish..." For all their overall success, the Utes are just 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as favorite in the -3.5 to -10 range. During that stretch, the Irish are 4-2-1 ATS as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range and 3-0 ATS when coming off a bye. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10 |
|||||||
11-13-10 | Boston College Eagles v. Duke +3.5 | 21-16 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DUKE. I've won with Duke two games in a row, so I'm well aware that the Blue Devils have quietly started to play very well. Last week, the Blue Devils defeated Virginia. The previous week, they upset Navy. Looking back further and we find that the Blue Devils have actually gone a profitable 4-1 ATS their last five games. I successfully played on them in ALL four of those pointspread victories, while staying off the game (at V-Tech) in which they lost. While I rarely continue to ride a team, that's usually because I usually find that they start to offer less and less line value. However, in this case, with the majority of the betting public still refusing to believe, I feel that the Blue Devils remain "under-valued."
Like the Blue Devils, the Eagles are also 2-0 SU/ATS their last two games, earning wins against Clemson and Wake Forest. They're just 3-7 ATS (4-6 SU) the last 10 times that they were off back to back victories though. During that stretch, note that they were just 1-5 ATS when facing a team with a losing record. Even with their last two wins, the Eagles are still below .500 on the season. Prior to those victories, both of which came by 10 or fewer points, the Eagles had lost five straight. Their only other victories this season came against Weber State and Kent State. Their biggest problem has been a one-dimensional offense. Boston College comes in averaging only 19.2 points and less than 300 yards of offense. As you can imagine, those are not the type of offensive numbers that typically lead to teams covering spreads as a road favorite. The Eagles are also just 1-2 SU on the road, getting outscored by an average score of 27 to 19. Their lone road win was at Wake Forest a team that Duke also almost beat. Looking back further and we find them at a dismal 3-8 SU their last 11 road games. All three victories came by 10 or less and two of them came by four or less. While the Eagles do admittedly have the edge on defense, playing on the road, I feel that they'll have trouble keeping up with a Duke offense which has exploded for 89 points the past two weeks. In a game that could easily come down to the wire (Four of Duke's last 8 games were decided by a TD or less) I'll grab the points. However, I look for the Blue Devils to continue to surprise, scoring their third consecutive upset and improving to 5-1 ATS since the beginning of October. *9 |
|||||||
11-11-10 | Pittsburgh v. Connecticut +6 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UCONN. I won with both these teams in their last game, so have respect for each of them. If we only look at the scores, Pittsburgh's win was more impressive. The Panthers won by a score of 20-3. The Huskies, on the other hand, only won by a score of 20-17. However, that doesn't take into consideration the strength of the opponent. The Huskies were taking on a tough West Virginia team. The Panthers were facing a mediocre Louisville squad.
A closer look reveals that the Panthers dominated defensively but managed only 255 yards on offense. Now, the Panthers are being asked to lay nearly a touchdown, on the road, against an opponent which is arguably better than Louisville. (Some would argue otherwise, as UConn did lose badly at Louisville.) With all due respect to the Panthers, I believe that's asking too much. The Panthers have only played three road games. They lost by three at Utah to begin the season. While there's no real shame in that, note that the Panthers were dominated statistically. They also lost at Notre Dame. (The Irish are currently a team which is below .500.) The Panthers lone road win came at Syracuse. The Huskies have had real trouble on the road, going 0-4. They've been outstanding here at home though. In fact, they're a perfect 4-0 here, outscoring opponents by a 40.7 to 14.5 margin. Looking back further and we find them at 9-5 ATS (10-4 SU) their past 14 home lined games and 32-19-1 ATS their last 52. While the Panthers are just 3-4 ATS their last seven when coming off a bye, the Huskies are 5-2 ATS their last seven off a bye. They're also a profitable 7-1 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range, going 15-7 ATS their last 22 in that role. Both teams have been involved in some "close" games and I could easily see this one also coming down to the wire. With the win over the Mountaineers, the Huskies have now seen two of their past three games decided by a field goal or less. As for the Panthers, two of their three road games were decided by six or fewer points. In fact, dating back to last season, the Panthers have now seen four of their last five road meetings decided by a touchdown or less. Also, two of the last four meetings between these teams were decided by three or fewer points, including a 24-21 win by the Panthers last season. With the home dog getting more than a field goal here, I believe that grabbing the points will prove to be the way to go. *9 |
|||||||
11-06-10 | Missouri Tigers v. Texas Tech Red Raiders +4.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS TECH. After upsetting Oklahoma the previous week, the Tigers saw their perfect season come to an end at Lincoln last week, getting pounded in the process. I feel that they'll have a difficult time recovering from that loss.
While the Tigers are certainly a talented team, I don't think that they were as good as last week's perfect record indicated. However, that doesn't mean that they weren't starting to believe they were headed to the National Title game, or, at least a very "big" bowl game. Having those dreams shattered so suddenly can be hard on a team. As coach Gary Pinkel noted: "It's our first loss of the year. It's very difficult for all of us." Note that Pinkel's Tigers are just 3-5 ATS the last eight times that they were coming off a conference loss. During that stretch, they've also gone just 2-6 ATS in their games played in the month of November. Admittedly, the Red Raiders have had a frustrating season. Still, they're more talented than their 4-4 record indicates. They're well coached and there are several reasons why they should be highly motivated for a victory. For starters, the Tigers are a conference rival and still rank in the Top 15 in the country. Any visit from a ranked team is a big deal. Also, the Tigers have beaten Texas Tech three straight times. Even though those games were before Tuberville arrived here, that's still reason to be extra "fired up." Most importantly, at 4-4, the Red Raiders still need two more victories to become bowl eligible for an 11th straight season. A look at the upcoming schedule shows that the Red Raiders travel to Oklahoma next week. Naturally, winning there isn't going to be easy. The other two games come against Weber State and Houston. Of course, they're going to beat Weber State. However, a victory in that one doesn't count towards bowl eligibility. Therefore, assuming that they will beat Houston and lose at Oklahoma, then becoming bowl eligible comes down to beating Missouri. Obviously, that makes this a very important game. While the results didn't come under Tuberville, the Red Raiders are 6-2 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. Note that all six of those pointspread victories also came in "SU" fashion. While I'll grab the points, I expect Tech to step up and score another outright win here. *10 |
|||||||
11-06-10 | Hawaii Warriors v. Boise State -21 | Top | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOISE STATE. I successfully played against the Broncos in their last game. They beat LA Tech 49-20 but didn't cover the huge number. However, even at the time, I noted that I thought the Broncos were an outstanding team, I just felt that the LA Tech offense was a bit better than people realized and that the line was too high. That result worked out just about perfectly. For starters, I was able to cash my ticket on the Bulldogs. Also, as they didn't 'cover,' a few bettors jumped off the Boise bandwagon. That's helped us in terms of line value, by keeping the line slightly lower than it might have been otherwise. Additionally, as the Broncos won by "only" 29 points, they actually lost some ground in the polls. As a result, in an effort to "impress," the Broncos know that they could really use a "bigtime blowout" here.
I believe that the Broncos are better than Hawaii on both sides of the ball. In addition to playing at home, they've also got a significant scheduling advantage. The Broncos last played on 10/26. That was here on the blue turf. Prior to that, their previous game had been on 10/16. So, that's two games since 10/16, each with an extra gap in the middle. During the same span, the Warriors have played three games. Making matters worse, the Warriors have been going back and forth from Hawaii every week. On 10/2, they played at Hawaii. On 10/9, they played at Fresno. On 10/16, they were back at Hawaii. On 10/23, they were at Utah State and last week, they were back home at Hawaii. Now, they're again on the "mainland." Give the Warriors credit, as they've done a great job. However, at some point that much traveling tends to take a toll and I expect that to be the case here. Note that the Warriors accepted an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl after last week's. Even though this is a huge game, after missing the bowls last season, that could be cause for a bit of a letdown. That's particularly true given that the players now know that nothing will change, from a bowl perspective, even if they somehow beat Boise. Also, note that the Warriors are an ugly 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) the last six times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +17.5 to +21 range. While the Broncos may have won their last game by only 29 points, they've now win 21 games in a row. That's the longest streak in the country. The Broncos also have a 19-game conference winning streak. That's also the best in the country. Additionally, they've won 29 straight at home. Their last four victories have come by 29, 48, 43 and 59 points. Given their remarkable run of success, the Broncos have plenty of excellent ATS stats in their favor. A couple that are particularly impressive are their 8-2 ATS run against teams with a winning record and an extremely impressive 31-10 ATS mark in the month of November, dating back to the 90s. Looking at last season's meeting and we find that the Broncos traveled to Hawaii and hammered the Warriors by a score of 54-9. The score was 34-0 at halftime. The Warriors have shown that they are a better football team this season. However, the Broncos are also arguably better and this season they're playing on their own turf. They've got a scheduling advantage and plenty of motivation. Yet, they're laying fewer points than they were on the road for last year's game. In a game that I feel could turn ugly, I feel that provides us with plenty of value. *10 WAC Blowout GOY |
|||||||
11-06-10 | Minnesota Golden Gophers +25 v. Michigan State | 8-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. While I respect the Spartans, I've I played against them in each of their last two games. I've simply felt that they were overvalued and/or in a difficult spot. I lost my play when they played at Northwestern, a tough defeat indeed. Northwestern was getting a decent handful of points and had a big lead in the fourth quarter, but still managed to cough up the cover. Last week, I again went against the Spartans, this time making it an even bigger (10*) play. This time, facing a tough Iowa team, the bubble finally burst and the Spartans got destroyed. I feel that will be a tough loss to bounce back from. Prior to that, the Spartans had been entertaining serious thoughts of an undefeated season. Now, those dreams have been taken away from them. As a result, there's likely to have been a lot of time spent this week, thinking about "what could have been" rather than fully focusing on the task at hand. After all those "big games" and with a bye on deck, it may be easy to overlook the Gophers.
Granted, a home game against Minnesota is a far less daunting task than a road game at Iowa, or even a road game at Northwestern. Still, The Spartans aren't just being asked to win, they're being asked to win by more than three touchdowns. Given the situation, I feel that's asking too much. True, the Gophers have a terrible W/L record and they just got hammered by Ohio State. Prior to that, however, they'd been very competitive. ALL seven of their previous losses came by 18 points or less. That includes games against opponents like USC, Wisconsin and Penn State. In other words, they've played some good teams and have mostly been able to 'hang around.' They were getting 21.5 at Wisconsin (lost by 18) and are now getting even more than that here, which I feel is very generous. The Spartans are a horrible 25-48 ATS the last 73 times that they were coming off a conference loss. During that stretch, they were also a money-burning 2-11 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56 to 63 range. The Gophers are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three games in this series. They're also 3-0 ATS the last three times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 56 to 63 range and 9-4 ATS the last 13 times that they were road underdogs of greater than three touchdowns. Overall, including the cover at Wisconsin, they're also 9-4 ATS their last 13 road games. Catching the Spartans off last week's beatdown, I expect them to improve on those stats here. *9 |
|||||||
11-06-10 | North Carolina State v. Clemson Tigers -3.5 | 13-14 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CLEMSON. The Wolfpack come in with the better record and the higher ranking. However, I believe that Clemson is favored for good reason.
Having won with them in last week's upset, I certainly respect the Wolfpack. That said, I expect this to be a much tougher match up for them. Last week, they were playing at home against a Florida State team which was starting to believe it was better than it really was. This week, the Wolfpack are on the road and facing a Clemson team which is angry after getting upset last week and which is looking to take out the frustration of a disappointing season on someone. True, Clemson is only 4-4. However, those four losses were all close, including an OT loss at Auburn. Also, lets not forget that last week was the Tigers first home loss of the season and that they're still 4-1 here at home. While the Tigers may have to go without tailback Andre Ellington, I feel that QB Kyle Parker and the rest of the Clemson offense will be able to pick up the slack vs. a mediocre NC State defense. While he hasn't been at his best this season, note that Parker should be highly motivated for a big game as both he and NC State QB have signed baseball contracts with the Rockies and therefore have a bit of a rivalry going. While NC State has been better offensively, Clemson has been far superior defensively. The Wolfpack are allowing 23.8 points per game. The Tigers are allowing only 18.1. coach O'Brien and his players were calling last week's game the biggest in his tenure at NC State. Off that big win and now with a national ranking it should be easy for this overachieving team to get caught patting itself on the back a little. Coach O'Brien was quoted as saying: "We have to get our heads out of the clouds and our feet on the ground..." However, that's often easier said than done. Speaking of O'Brien, he knows his team will have its hands full. The Tigers have won each of their three meetings against O'Brien-coached N.C. State teams by an average of 20 points. O'Brien was quoted as saying: "They still have pretty good backs down there. They've got a lot of talent. They're a big, powerful football team, and a lot of the guys we played last year are still playing." NC State defensive end David Akinniyi said this of the Tigers: "Clemson's more of the type of offensive line that will just try to maul you, run the ball down your throat. I think it's probably going to be one of the most physical games we've been in so far." In addition to having beaten NC State six straight times, the Tigers are 6-3 ATS the last nine times that they were off a conference loss and 7-2 ATS the last nine times that they were listed as favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range. Clemson tight end Dwayne Allen said this of his team: "We're a 4-4 team with 8-0 talent." Expect Allen's Tigers to play up to their talent level this afternoon as they take out some frustration and continue their dominance in this series. *9 |
|||||||
11-06-10 | Virginia Cavaliers v. Duke Blue Devils +1 | 48-55 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DUKE. Both these teams are coming off fairly major upset victories. I wasn't all that shocked that Duke upset Navy, (34-31) as the Blue Devils were one of my plays. (I grabbed the +13 points though.) The Cavaliers' victory was arguably even more surprising, at least to me. (I didn't play their game.) Listed as +14.5 point underdogs, the Cavs beat Miami 24-19. That was at home though. Now the Cavs take to the road where they have yet to win a game.
Duke won outright at Virginia last season. This year's team is stronger and returned numerous starters. Virginia didn't return as many starters and is now playing on the road. Yet, the Cavs are still small favorites. I feel that's based more on perception than on reality. The general public knows that Duke is a "basketball school" and has seen the Blue Devils football team struggle over the years. They have a natural tendency to think of Virginia as the better team. That opinion is strengthened by the fact that Virginia has twice as many wins as Duke so far this season. While the win over Miami was impressive, the Cavs other two victories came vs. the likes of Richhmond, VMI and Eastern Michigan. That's a pair of 1-AA teams and a team which is 1-8 this season after going winless last year. Not that Duke's other win, (Elon) prior to beating Navy, was anything special either - however, I'm only trying to point out that Virginia having four victories is a little misleading. It should also be noted that the Cavs were outgained by a 448-361 margin in last week's win. Duke, on the other hand, had a 446-375 edge. The Cavs are 0-8 SU (3-5 ATS) in the month of November the past two seasons. They're also 0-2 SU/ATS the past few seasons, when playing a game with a line in the +3 to -3 range. During the same stretch, the Blue Devils were 2-1 SU/ATS when playing a game with a line in the +3 to -3 range. Looking back further and we find Duke at 4-1-1 ATS the last six times it was listed as a home underdog of three points or less. The Blue Devils beat Virginia two years in a row and I look for them to do so again here. *9 |
|||||||
11-03-10 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights v. South Florida Bulls -10.5 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA. I won with the Bulls their last game. Getting +9.5 points, they won outright at Cincinnati. Now, off a bye last week, they return home to take on a struggling Rutgers squad. I expect the Bulls, who should have plenty of motivation, to follow up the win over Cincy with a double-digit "blowout" win here.
There are several reasons why I say that the Bulls should have "plenty of motivation." Here are a few of them. For starters, every team likes to win on National TV. That goes for both teams though, so that by itself isn't a real advantage. However, the fans also tend to get extra "fired up" when the cameras are around and some of that excitement/energy often gets passed on to to the players of the home team, making a positive difference. For the Bulls, there's also have a matter of some "payback." Last season, Rutgers hammered them by a score of 31-0. The previous year, in the most recent game here, Rutgers embarrassed them by a score of 49-16. Yes, this year's team has a new coach (Skip Holtz) who wasn't here for those losses. However, with 15 returning starters, there are plenty of lingering bad memories. Additionally, Holtz and co. would love to accomplish something that the previous regime failed to do in recent seasons. Additional motivation should come from the fact that the Bulls lost their last home game, getting upset by Syracuse. Nothing like a blowout win to erase the bad taste of that game. Perhaps most important, with the win over the Bearcats, the Bulls have gotten themselves back into contention in the Big East. A win here and they're at 2-2 (in Big East play) and alone in third place. A win also would give them a shot at finishing over .500 in the conference for the first time in three years. While the Bulls are off a big win, the Knights check in off a blowout loss (41-21) vs. Pittsburgh. They're 4-3 on the season but just 1-6 at the betting window. The Bulls offense admittedly hasn't been that great, but I feel they're moving in the right direction. The Bulls average 30.7 points and 339 yards at home. The same can't be said for Rutgers. The Knights are averaging just 21 points and a mere 208.3 yards on the road. Defensively, the Bulls are allowing 10.5 points and 270.7 yards at home. Rutgers, on the other hand, is allowing 25 points and 423.9 yards per game on the road. Holtz had this to say about this game and his players: "They understand what they've got to get done and the way this football team has kind of owned us, especially the last two years." I expect his team to respond accordingly. *10 |
|||||||
11-02-10 | Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders -1.5 v. Arkansas State Red Wolves | 24-51 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE. The Blue Raiders are 9-2 against Arkansas State and that includes a 38-14 blowout victory last November. The Blue Raiders were laying -10 or -10.5 points for that one. They enjoyed a massive 427-220 edge in total yards. While they have to play on the road for this year's meeting, I still feel that the Blue Raiders are the stronger team. Note that they returned 14 starters from last season's 10-3 squad while the Red Wolves brought back 11 starters from a team that went 4-8.
The Blue Raiders entered this season with hopes of winning the Sun Belt. While they're still 2-1 in conference play, a loss to Troy made those hopes appear bleak. However, Troy was upset this past weekend. Closing as high as -17 point favorites, the Trojans were beaten 28-14 by UL-Monroe. That result gives Middle Tenn. State new hope. The Trojans will still hold the head-to-head advantage but the Blue Raiders now know that they could claim a share of the title by winning out, or that they could win the championship outright if some other SBC team beats Troy. That makes this a very big game, an opportunity which they can't afford to squander. While the Blue Raiders offense can be potent and strike quickly, the defense is coming off a game, prior to last week's bye. The Blue Raiders tweaked their defensive scheme prior to facing Louisiana-Monroe. The result? Six sacks, 11 tackles for losses and two interceptions; those were their first two INTs of the season against an FBS opponent. The big effort by the secondary prompted cornerback Rod Issac to note: "Now that we've got some interceptions, it's like we set a fire. Once you set that fire, you want it to continue to burn. We hope our interceptions last week were just the beginning of our fire. We want it to spread more and more, and we want to pour some gasoline on that fire. We want it to catch on and spread and just keep burning." Including last year's blowout win over Arkansas State, the Blue Raiders were 6-1 ATS (7-0 SU!) in November the past two seasons. On the other hand, the Red Wolves were just 1-7 ATS in their November games, during the same stretch. Its also worth noting that the Red Wolves are a dismal 1-9 SU/ATS the last 10 times that they played a game with a line in the +3 to -3 range. The Blue Raiders are 6-2 SU/ATS the last eight times that they were listed as road favorites of -3 points or less, including 2-0 SU/ATS the last two seasons. I expect them to pad those stats here. *9 |
|||||||
10-30-10 | Auburn Tigers v. Mississippi Rebels +7 | Top | 51-31 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on MISSISSIPPI. With a perfect record and a top 5 ranking, the Tigers are obviously a very solid team, one which I respect. In fact, many of you will recall that I had a big play on them a couple of weeks ago, when they crushed Arkansas by a 65-43 count. They followed that victory up by beating LSU by seven points last week. Those games were both at home though. Now, the Tigers take to the road, where things have been far more challenging. I expect them to have their hands full.
The Tigers have only played two road games, at Kentucky and Mississippi State. In both cases, they won by only a field goal. The Rebels lost each of their last two games. Those were both on the road, at very difficult venues though, Arkansas and Alabama. Note that in both cases, they still stayed within 14 points. Now, they're back home though, where they beat Kentucky and Fresno State in their last two games. While most have now become familiar with Cam Newton, Auburn's big star QB, the Rebels have a very capable "dual-threat" QB of their own. Masoli three for 327 yards and three TDs against Arkansas last time out and he'll be facing an Auburn pass defense which ranks 101st in the country. Auburn's coach Gene Chizik said this of the Rebels' passing attack: "When (Masoli) gets outside the pocket and he throws the ball down the field, they're making a lot of big things happen. He brings definitely a dimension to the team that's two-fold, and his athletic ability is the reason he's able to do those things." While they lost at Auburn last season, the Rebels had an edge in both first downs and time of possession. The last time that they hosted the Tigers was in 2008 - Ole Miss won that game by a score of 17-7. Note that the Rebels are 7-2 SU the last nine times that they were coming off a conference loss. They're also 6-2 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as underdogs. Looking back further and we find them at a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 56 to 63.5 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *9 |
|||||||
10-30-10 | Duke Blue Devils +13.5 v. Navy Midshipmen | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DUKE. I really like how this one sets up for the visitors. The Midshipmen are off a huge win over Notre Dame. In addition to helping provide us with some additional line value, that may have them patting themselves on the back a bit. At the very least, Navy may find it easy to overlook the 'lowly' Blue Devils, who are just 1-6. I feel that will prove costly.
True, the Blue Devils are a poor 1-6. That's not entirely their fault though. They're home games came against Elon, Alabama, Army and Miami. They did beat Elon and probably should have been able to beat Army - (they did outgain the Knights.) However, beating Miami or Alabama wasn't very likely. They've also had road games at Wake Forest, Maryland and Virginia Tech. While they didn't win any of those games, they were highly competitive at both Wake Forest and Maryland, losing each game by less than a touchdown. Anyway, my point is, that they've played quite a tough schedule. So, while they could be better than 1-6, the poor overall record isn't that shocking. A closer look at Duke's difficult schedule reveals that five of their seven games were decided by 15 points or less. Navy has also been involved in a number of close games this season. Yes the Midshipmen won by 18 vs. the Irish last week. However, their previous six games were ALL decided by 14 or fewer points, five of them being decided by eight or less. The Blue Devils beat Navy by 10 when these teams met in 2008 and this is arguably a more talented team. I expect the Blue Devils to give the Midshipmen all they can handle again here, earning at least the cover and improving to 6-2 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range. *9 |
|||||||
10-30-10 | Michigan State Spartans v. Iowa Hawkeyes -6.5 | Top | 6-37 | Win | 100 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on IOWA. A few weeks back, the Spartans beat the Badgers. Last week, the Badgers beat the Hawkeyes, who are now 5-2. At 8-0, the Spartans also bring the better record to the table. Therefore, given those results and records, many will expect the Spartans to also beat the Hawkeyes. As usual, I see things differently.
Historically, homefield tends to be significant in this series. In fact, the home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings in this series. The exception was last season, when the Hawkeyes scored on the final play to earn a road win. Speaking of homefield advantage, the Hawkeyes are playing their second straight home game. The Spartans are playing their second straight on the road. That's the first (and will be the only) time that the Spartans have done that this season. Last season, when playing the second of back to back road games, they were 0-1 SU/ATS. Listed as +2 point underdogs, they lost by eight. Looking back further and we find the Spartans at 0-4 SU since 2006, when playing the second of back to back reg. season road games. That includes a 0-1 SU/ATS mark here at Iowa. (The Spartans also 1-3 the last four years after having faced Northwestern in their previous game.) While the perfect record is certainly impressive, keep in mind that last week's win at Northwestern was Michigan State's first game outside the state of Michigan. They were also somewhat fortunate to win, as they had to rally for a big second half combeback. As MSU QB Kirk Cousins noted: "We are a second-half team..." Having the ability to come from behind is certainly important. That said, if/when they fall behind again here, I expect the Spartans to find "coming back" a lot more difficult. Keep in mind that Iowa returned 14 starters from last year's 11-2 team, which won the Orange Bowl. The Hawkeyes are both well-coached and talented. They're also a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this millennium, when hosting the Spartans. All four of those victories came by a minimum of five points and they came by an average of 15.5. I look for those stats to improve here, as the Hawkeyes bounce back and hand the Spartans their first loss of the season. *10 |
|||||||
10-30-10 | Louisville Cardinals v. Pittsburgh Panthers -9 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. Louisville comes off an impressive 26-0 victory. Give the Cardinals credit. However, lets not forget that they were facing a UConn team which is now 0-4 on the road. Now, its the Cardinals which are playing on the road. Making matters worse, this time, they'll be facing a far stronger opponent, arguably the most talented team in the conference.
True, the Cardinals are a respectable 4-3. However, last week's win over UConn was arguably their biggest win and I already noted that the Huskies are winless on the road. (The Cardinals also caught the Huskies breaking in a new QB.) Prior to that, Louisville's other three victories came against Eastern Kentucky, Arkansas State and Memphis - all three of those teams are weaklings this year. Yes, the Huskies defense has been solid. The offense is fairly one-dimensional though and I believe that the Panthers are stronger on both sides of the ball. Note that the Huskies' strength on offense is running the ball and that plays right into Pittsburgh's hands. The Panthers' strength on defense has been shutting down the run. The Panthers are allowing a mere 92.4 ypg on the ground. The Panthers began the season with big expectations. While they started slowly, they've now begun to click on all cylinders. They've won three of their last four games, all three victories coming by double-digits, incl. a 41-21 blowout of Rutgers last week and a 45-14 destruction of Syracuse, the previous week. Including those results, the Panthers are now 9-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in October, the past few seasons. Clearly, this has been Wannestedt's "time of year." It's also worth noting that the Panthers are a profitable 34-18 ATS (excluding pushes) their last 52 lined games, when coming off a conference win. That includes a 7-3 ATS mark the past few seasons. I mentioned that the Panthers have been strong in October. One of their recent October victories was last season, at Louisville. Pittsburgh was laying -6.5 points and won by 25, a 35-10 victory. The most recent meeting here at Pittsburgh also resulted in a blowout victory for the Panthers. Pittsburgh won that one by a score of 41-10. The Panthers are the lone undefeated team remaining in the Big East. Playing at home, I expect another double-digit victory. *10 |
|||||||
10-29-10 | West Virginia Mountaineers v. Connecticut Huskies +6.5 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UCONN. Both these teams played poorly on Saturday. The Huskies got pounded 26-0 at Louisville. As ugly as that loss was, West Virginia's loss was more surprising and arguably even more disappointing. Playing at home and laying roughly two touchdowns, West Virginia was beaten outright by lowly Syracuse. The team which is best able to "bounce back" from that loss will get the cover here. I expect that to be the Huskies.
Last week's loss was clearly disappointing for the Huskies. However, given that they're winless on the road, it wasn't exactly 'shocking.' They've been an entirely different team at home though. In three games here, the Huskies have gone a perfect 3-0. All three victories came by double-digits and the Huskies won them by an average score of 49-15. True, the Huskies have some issues at QB right now. (Prior to last week's game, starting QB Cody Endres was suspended for the season following a violation of school policies.) However, I feel that they'll be able to overcome them. QB Box now has a start under his belt while Zach Frazer, who began the season as the starter, is also available. Taking pressure off the QB, the Huskies have an got excellent ground game. Jordan Todman already has 841 yards and eight TDs. As for the Mountaineers, they've gone 1-1 on the road. They lost by six at LSU and they won by only three at Marshall. They're now a money-burning 9-16 ATS the last 25 times that they were laying points, including 3-5 ATS when listed as road favorites. Both teams are playing on a short week. That may also favor UConn. The Huskies are 12-6 ATS the past few seasons, when playing with six or fewer day's rest. During that stretch, WVU was just 4-10 ATS when playing with six or fewer day's rest. The Huskies are 14-7 ATS the last 21 times that they were listed as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range, including 6-1 ATS their last seven in that role. The Huskies are also a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times that they were coming off back to back SU losses and 15-5 ATS the last 20 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 49 range. Playing at home, I expect the Huskies to bounce back with their best effort and improve on those stats here. *9 |
|||||||
10-28-10 | Florida State v. North Carolina State +4 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on NC STATE. The Seminoles have only lost one game all season, a 47-17 blowout loss at Oklahoma. I successfully played against them that day and feel that this will prove to be another good spot to do so.
The Seminoles are a strong team and they come in on a roll. However, the Wolfpack have proven to be better than expected this year and they'll be extremely motivated to deliver the upset in front of their home fans and the national audience. The Wolfpack are an improved team from last year. However, even last year, playing at Talahassee, they lost by only three points. Now they get to play the Seminoles at Raleigh. They've gone 3-1 SU/ATS at home, the lone loss coming vs. Virginia Tech, a team they outgained. QB Russell Wilson, has had some turnover issues of late. However, he's still got excellent numbers overall. For the season, he's averaging 303.4 passing yards per game and he's tossed 18 TDs. He's also rushed for 200 yards and two more scores. While this is a huge game for both teams, one could argue its bigger for the Wolfpack. Coach O'Brien certainly knows how important it is. When asked if it was the most important game since he's been here, he was quoted as saying: "Yeah, certainly. Without question it is." Both teams had last week off. The O'Brien and the Wolfpack have already shown that they can capitalize on extra preparation time this season. When playing with nine days in-between the Cincinnati and Georgia Tech games, they responded by playing their best game, crushing the Jackets (at Georgia Tech) by a score of 45-28. Note that the Wolpack, who have 12 days off between games here, are 3-0 ATS after a bye the past 2+ seasons. Speaking of "crushing" victories, in their most recent home, the Wolfpack hammered Boston College by a score of 44-17. Coincidentally, the Seminoles hosted Boston College last time out. Unlike NC State, they barely won, earning a 24-19 victory. Note that the Seminoles are an ugly 4-11-1 ATS the last 16 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. While the Seminoles have an excellent pass rush, the Wolfpack are also capable of getting after the quarterback. They're averaging three sacks a game. With FSU QB Ponder still nursing a sore elbow and with the FSU offensive line missing a starter (right guard David Spurlock) its fairly safe to expect the Pack to bring some pressure. The Wolfpack are a profitable 14-7-1 ATS the last 22 times that they were getting points, including 3-1 SU/ATS when listed as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. Playing their "biggest game in years," I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10 |
|||||||
10-26-10 | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +38 v. Boise State | 20-49 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA TECH. When I bet on an underdog, I usually like to feel that the underdog has a real shot at winning the game outright. While anything is possible, in cases where the pointspread is as big as this one, expecting an outright upset isn't exactly realistic. That doesn't mean that I won't pull the trigger on the underdog though, if I feel that the spread is simply too high. With all due respect to the Broncos, I feel that's the case.
Boise State is on a roll. (What else is new?) The Broncos are also playing at home and we know how tough they've been at home over the years. Naturally, the Broncos would also like to run the score up, given their place in the national polls and given that they get a chance to impress a national audience. All that's already been factored into the line though and I feel that laying more than 37 points against an LA Tech team, which is off back to back wins, is simply asking too much. The Broncos have won their last three games by 59, 43 and 48 points. Those games came against New Mexico State, Toledo and San Jose State though. Toledo is a fairly mediocre team from the MAC while New Mexico State and San Jose State are two of the very worst in the WAC. The Bulldogs are much better than either of those other two WAC opponents though and I expect them to prove more competitive than Toledo was. With a change in coaches, the Bulldogs switched offenses this season. As a result, it took some time to learn the new schemes. They seem to have started to figure things out though. Two weeks ago, the Bulldogs beat Utah State 24-6. (Remember, Utah State crushed BYU and lost by only three at Oklahoma.) Last week, they followed that up with a 48-35 win vs. Idaho, racking up a whopping 683 total yards of offense. I had a big play on the Bulldogs (+20) when they covered vs. Boise State last season. The Broncos won 45-35. While Boise State is arguably even better than it was last season, (the Broncos were pretty darn good last year too!) I believe that the same can be said of the Bulldogs. This is a team which returned 13 starters and received a number of highly rated transfers, one which has plenty of confidence after its biggest offensive output in ages. In their last game here, which came in 2008, the Bulldogs lost by 35. That didn't result in a cover, as they were getting "only" 24 points. We're getting an extra two touchdowns to work with here though, which means that a similar result would result in a cover. I feel that provides us with excellent line value. Including last year's cover, the Bulldogs are an impressive 10-1 ATS their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. I expect them to score enough points to hang within the big number and improve on those stats here. *9 |
|||||||
10-23-10 | Air Force Falcons v. TCU Horned Frogs -18 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on TCU. I respect the Falcons. They're a solid squad that plays hard. They've got a 5-2 record and both their losses came by a field goal or less. In fact, they even hung within a field goal of the Sooners, at Oklahoma. That said, this is a very difficult spot for them and I feel that this will be their toughest game of the year. I look for them to suffer their first - and probably only - blowout loss of the season.
I say this is a "tough spot" for Air Force for a number of reasons. Here are a few of them. For starters, the Falcons are playing the second of back to back road games. The last time they did so, they barely beat a bad Wyoming team, failing to cover the spread. (TCU beat Wyoming 45-0.) That marked the start of the Falcons' current 0-4 ATS run. Also, last week's loss figures to be a difficult one to bounce back from. It was a big game. The Falcons were #23 in the nation and had a chance to be perfect in conference play and 6-1 going into the showdown with TCU. It was close the entire way but the Falcons came up short, losing 27-25. With two minutes left, Air Force scored a touchdown to pull within 20-18. The ensuing 2-point conversion was initially ruled good, making it 20-20. A review caused it to be overturned though. That's a difficult pill to swallow and that defeat may have them thinking about "what could have been." Note that Air Force is a dismal 17-40 ATS, dating back to the early 1990s, when coming off a conference loss. Of course, the Horned Frogs are again among the best teams in the country. They've been perhaps the best non-BCS team each of the past two seasons and this is arguably their best team ever. They're undefeated on the season, excellent on both sides of the ball and very well-coached. They've won their last three games by a combined score of 104-3. The average score of their home games is 45.7 to 5. The fact that Air Force played Oklahoma so tough figures to give the Frogs plenty of incentive here. After all, if the Sooners only beat the Falcons by three points and then TCU comes in and smashes them by 30+, it makes the Frogs look that much better. Note that TCU has been unbeatable here and that the Frogs have been particularly tough when playing home games with O/U lines in this range. In fact, they're a profitable 13-2 ATS the last 15 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 45 to 49.5 range. The Falcons have been able to play the Frogs tough at home recently. Last year, at Air Force, TCU only beat them by a score of 20-17. That score could have easily been more lopsided though. Not only did TCU have a big statistical edge, but the Frogs had a few key turnovers, including two inside the AF 10. They also had to contend with nasty (icy rain) weather. It was a different story the last time that the teams met here at Forth Worth though. In that game, laying between -19.5 and -20.5 points, the Frogs won by a score of 44-10. TCU had a commanding 30-7 edge in first downs and a massive 504-161 edge in total yards. Patterson saw what Oregon did on National TV on Thursday night and he'll be looking to have his team "look good." I expect another one-sided affair. 10* |
|||||||
10-23-10 | Hawaii Warriors v. Utah State Aggies +3.5 | Top | 45-7 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH STATE. I had the Aggies in their last home game. Hosting BYU, they were listed as small (opened at +6.5 and closed at +4.5) point underdogs. The Aggies didn't need the points though as they won convincingly, 31-16. The Aggies had a big edge in total yards, particularly on the ground. They finished with 242 rushing yards. BYU finished with 65 rushing yards. The Aggies did lose their most recent game. That was on the road though and they've since had enjoyed a bye week. The extra preparation time figures to come in handy, as Hawaii has been rolling.
True, the Warriors are "hot" and are off back to back upset victories. They're also in a difficult scheduling spot. They began October with a home game vs. LA Tech. That was followed by a trip to Fresno State. That was followed by a return back to Hawaii to host Nevada. Now, they are again flying back to the "mainland." That's a lot of travel time. Also, off those two huge victories it could be quite easy for them to suffer a bit of a "letdown" against a smaller-named opponent, such as Utah State. As BYU found out, that can be costly. Including the win over the Cougars, the Aggies are now 9-4 ATS their last 13 home lined games. That includes a 5-2 ATS mark when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range. Speaking of that BYU game, here's a small excerpt from inside my writeup from that game, which I feel is applicable again here: "...the Aggies did get blown out at San Diego State last week. They played Fresno State fairly tough in their most recent home game though. That game was tied at halftime and also entering the fourth quarter. The Aggies easily won their other home game, a blowout vs. a weak Idaho State program. More impressive, however, was the way they played Oklahoma. Indeed, this team actually outgained the Sooners and lost by only seven points, at Oklahoma. Unlike BYU, the Aggies could be considered an 'experienced team,' as they brought back 16 starters from last season's team. While the Cougars no longer have Max Hall, the Aggies bring back QB Diondre Borel. You may recall that Borel was 20 of 28 for 213 yards at BYU last year..." The Aggies are 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were coming off a bye. Off last season's bye, they covered by double-digits at Texas A&M. They're also 8-3 ATS the last 11 times that their previous game was a loss vs. a WAC opponent. While they aren't happy with their 2-4 record, the Aggies still believe that they can make it to a bowl game. They can only afford two more losses - and they've got road games at both Nevada and Boise State to come. In other words, this game is absolutely massive for them. (Their three November games: New Mexico State, San Jose State and Idaho are all very winnable.) The Aggies did lose (49-36) at Hawaii last season. They beat the Warriors when the teams played here in 2008 though. Listed as +5 point underdogs, they won outright by a score of 30-14. This year's Utah State team is arguably much more talented than that one. While I'll grab the points, playing a huge game, with the schedule and venue in their favor, I look for this year's Aggies to step up and score another upset. 10* |
|||||||
10-23-10 | Kansas State Wildcats v. Baylor Bears -6 | Top | 42-47 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on BAYLOR. The Wildcats come in with the better record. However, I believe that the Bears are the stronger team. Playing at home, in one of their very best roles, I look for them to demonstrate that here.
After losing to Texas Tech two weeks ago, the Bears got off to a slow start in last week's game at Colorado. They rallied in the second half for a victory though, which gives them some positive momentum heading into today's game. The same can be said of K-State, as the Wildcats bounced back from a loss vs. Nebraska by punishing Kansas in their last game. Colorado is a tougher opponent than Kansas this year though and the Bears outgained the Buffaloes by a whopping 543-399 margin. That win over Kansas was the Wildcats first true road game of the season. Now, while they've had some extra preparation time, they're playing their second straight road game, which can often be difficult. (K-State is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS the last three times it played the second of b2b road games.) Also, as impressive as a 59-7 win over Kansas may sound, keep in mind that Baylor also blew out (55-7) Kansas and that the Jayhawks are horrible this season. The Wildcats got destroyed by Nebraska and arguably their "biggest" win came at home against UCLA, a team that just lost 61-14 on Thursday night. This Baylor team really wants to get to a bowl. However, with nothing but tough games remaining, this game against Kansas, which is also the Bears' homecoming game, is absolutely critical. The Wildcats are 7-8 ATS the lat 15 times that they were listed as underdogs. That includes a 1-3 ATS mark when they've been listed as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range. During the same stretch, the Bears have gone 7-2 ATS as favorites, including a perfect 5-0 ATS when listed as favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10 |
|||||||
10-23-10 | Michigan State v. Northwestern Wildcats +6.5 | 35-27 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 4 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NORTHWESTERN. Give the Spartans credit, as they've been having a dream season. Their 7-0 start is the best at Michigan State since the 1960s. That said, this figures to be a difficult spot. The Spartans have been playing "big game" after "big game," having faced Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois already in October. They also have a showdown with Iowa, a team which beat them last season, on deck, to close out the month. That figures to be an absolutely huge game for the Spartans and it may be easy to get caught looking past a "lesser" opponent like Northwestern. That will prove costly though as the Wildcats are better than many realize.
Northwestern did suffer a disappointing loss last time out, their first of the season. The Wildcats have had an extra week off to regroup and prepare for this week's big game though. Note that they're 12-7 ATS the last 19 times that they were coming off a bye, including 2-1 the last three. While they have played a fairly soft schedule so far this season, keep in mind that Northwestern is now a solid 13-6 SU the last two seasons. They covered at Michigan State (24-14 loss as +14 point underdogs) last season and this year's team is arguably stronger. A closer look at that game reveals that the Wildcats had an edge in first downs for the game and that they held the lead at halftime. It should also be noted that the Wildcats are in one of their best roles. In fact, they're 11-4 ATS the last 15 times that they were listed as underdogs, including a perfect 6-0 ATS record when they were listed as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range. Looking back further and we find them at a highly profitable 33-14 ATS their last 47 in that role. Given that the Wildcats are getting a handful of points here, note that four of their six games have been decided by five points or less. (The other two were blowout victories.) I expect the Wildcats to be 'refreshed' off their bye and look for them to bounce back and continue their success in the underdog role. *9 |
|||||||
10-22-10 | South Florida Bulls +8 v. Cincinnati Bearcats | Top | 38-30 | Win | 100 | 55 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA. Both these teams played on "weeknight" TV last week. The Bulls lost. The Bearcats won. That's worked in our favor here, as many bettors personally watched those games and will be far more likely to favor the team that won last week. However, keep in mind that Cincinnati was playing at Louisville while South Florida was taking on West Virginia, a much tougher opponent. Therefore, even though many will do so, comparing those results isn't exactly fair.
Many will remember Cincinnati's great run the past two seasons. This year's team isn't quite as strong though and already has three losses. They returned 12 starters from last season's team. On the other hand, South Florida returned 15 starters from last year's team. While the Bulls are only 3-3, two of those losses have been on the road at very difficult venues. In addition to last week's game at West Virginia, they lost at Florida. Don't be fooled by last week's loss and the "disappointing" record, these Bulls have both speed and talent. The offense has struggled so far - but did return 10 starters on that side of the ball, so I feel its only a matter of time. The defense has been stout and held the potent WVU to less than 300 yards last week. While they have yet to beat a "quality" opponent, this is their best opportunity to do so and they'd love nothing more than to prove that to the nation by upsetting the defending conference champs on National TV. The Bearcats did play Oklahoma tough, losing by only two. They haven't really beaten a good team yet though, as their three victories came vs. Louisville, Miami Ohio and Indiana State. The loss vs. the Sooners can certainly be forgiven. However, losses at Fresno State and NC State show that they're far from unbeatable. While the Bearcats arguably had an edge in the coaching department the past couple of years, I don't feel that's necessarily the case any longer. Cincinatti's Butch Jones has enjoyed success in his past coaching jobs. Skip Holtz is also a proven winner though, one who is coming off back to back conference titles at East Carolina. I expect him to have the Bulls, who have had one more day of preparation than the Bearcats, "ready to go" and look for them to improve to 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were coming off back to back losses. *10 |
|||||||
10-16-10 | Arkansas Razorbacks v. Auburn Tigers -4 | Top | 43-65 | Win | 100 | 53 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on AUBURN. These are both very good teams and both are off to excellent starts. Both have bigtime quarterbacks and both have been playing solid defense. The Razorbacks are 4-1 and their only defeat came against Alabama, a close loss in which they covered the spread. From a win/loss standpoint, the Tigers have been even better. They're a perfect 6-0. They've earned close road wins at Mississippi State and Kentucky, while beating the likes of Clemson and South Carolina here at home.
Clearly, its a huge game for both teams. In my opinion, the Tigers could "want it" just a little bit more though. Last season, they finally became ranked (moved up to #17) for the first and only time, before their game at Arkansas. Yet, they were blown out 44-23 and never returned to the Top 25 the rest of the regular season. Perhaps more important than any feelings of 'revenge,' the Tigers know that if they can win this game, that they've got a real shot at being undefeated, when they face Alabama in late November. In other words, if things work out, there's a possible path to the National Title game in front of them. A closer look at last season's shows that the Tigers were playing their second straight road game, as they were off a big (upset) win at Tennessee, the previous week. This time, its Arkansas which will be playing away from home, for the second straight week. (Last week, they faced Texas A&M, at Arlington.) For last year's meeting, in addition to playing back to back road games, the Tigers were still a team which was in the first year of a new coach's system. This year, in addition to playing at home, the Tigers brought back 15 starters, now in their second year of the system. Big difference. We know Arkansas has a potent passing attack. Teams still generally need to be able to run to be able to pass effectively though and I expect Arkansas to have trouble doing so. Auburn defensive coordinator Ted Roof had this to say: "They throw the ball more than they run the ball, but they were able to run it on us last year. That's something that we have to make sure we do a good job on is limiting their running game." For the season, Auburn is allowing only 95.7 rushing yards per game, at a clip of just 2.8 yards per attempt. I respect the Razorbacks and did win with them in their ATS win vs. Alabama. The fact that they've scored only three second half points in back to back games is concerning though. The Tigers have had three games decided by a field goal, two of them on the road. Many will point towards those close games and say that they're fortunate to have a perfect record. Maybe so. I tend to agree with coach Chizik though, when he says that close games benefit a team. He was quoted as saying: "You cant schedule close games. It works wonders in how it builds team chemistry." The Tigers followed up their last 3-point win (vs. Clemson) with an 8-point win vs. South Carolina. I expect them to follow up last week's close game with a more convincing victory, avenging last year's loss and remaining undefeated. *10 |
|||||||
10-16-10 | Texas Longhorns +10.5 v. Nebraska Huskers | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 40 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS. Talk about a turnaround from one year to the next. Last season, Texas was laying two touchdowns when these teams faced each other. This season, Nebraska is now the team which is laying more than a touchdown. With all due respect to the Huskers and the fact this this season's game is at Lincoln, I believe that's too big a swing.
The Huskers are off an impressive blowout victory over Kansas State. That came on TV, so everyone saw them dominate. That's worked in our favor here, in terms of line value. The Longhorns' last game was a blowout loss vs. Oklahoma, also on National TV, which again has worked in our favor. While this Texas team won't be winning any national titles, its still got plenty of bigtime talent. The Huskers were able to crush K-State, due to the fact that their quarterback kept breaking off huge runs and couldn't be tackled. To his credit, Taylor Martinez is having a great season. However, running against K-State and running against Texas are entirely different matters. True, Texas has lost two straight games. The Longhorns haven't lost three straight in the regular season since the year before Mack Brown arrived (1997) though. Also, they've had a much-needed bye, since the loss to the Sooners. There is no denying that Nebraska badly wants to win this game. They felt they got screwed in last year's game and they know that an undefeated record gives them a shot at playing for the national title. Also, as they're leaving for the Big-Ten, a win here would be extra sweet. That said, wanting and doing are entirely different matters. Keep in mind that the Longhorns have beaten the Huskers in eight of the last nine meetings. Bo Pelini knows beating Texas won't be easy. He was quoted as as saying: "The coaches and players over there have a lot of pride. They've won a lot of football games for a long time. They're going to come out firing. We understand that and know that's going to be the case..." Looking back a number of years and we find Texas is 10-4 SU the last 14 times it was coming off back to back losses. During that stretch, the Longhorns were 33-10 SU when coming off a bye. During that stretch, they've also gone a profitable 27-15 ATS when listed as underdogs. Last year's game was decided on the final play of the game. I could easily see this one also coming down to the wire, which makes getting more than a touchdown very attractive. *10 |
|||||||
10-16-10 | Miami (Florida) v. Duke Blue Devils +19.5 | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 74 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DUKE. Playing on the road and laying nearly three touchdowns, obviously Miami has some advantages. That said, given the situation, schedule and venue, I feel that the line is too high.
I feel that this will be a tough spot for the Hurricanes. Off three straight tough road games, last week, they returned home and faced rival Florida State. While Miami was favored, the Seminoles delivered a one-sided 45-17 beating. While the Hurricanes would surely love to bounce back with a blowout of their own, that's often easier said than done. That was their first 'bad' loss of the season (their only other loss was at Ohio State and that was expected) and its not always easy for kids to focus the following week, particularly against a "lesser" opponent, like Duke. Note that Miami is just 2-5 ATS the last seven times that it was coming off a conference loss. Making it even easier to overlook Duke, it should also be noted that the Hurricanes have a big game vs. North Carolina on deck. Not only is coach Shannon closely connected to UNC (he was a player and an assistant under Davis) but the Tar Heels have beaten Miami three years in a row. I played on Duke in its last game. The Blue Devils didn't win. They did play one of their better games though and easily covered the spread at Maryland, eventually losing by five. Note that Duke had a 399 to 294 edge in total yards. Off that pointspread victory, their first of the season, the Blue Devils had a bye last week. That gives them some extra time to prepare. Looking back to last season and we find that Duke won outright (beat Maryland 17-13) following its bye last season. Speaking of last season, the Blue Devils managed to earn a cover in last year's game at Miami. The Hurricanes did pull away for a final score of 34-16. The Blue Devils, who were +18.5 or +19 point underdogs, actually led that game (16-13) in the fourth quarter. In other words, Duke played the Hurricanes very tough for three quarters last season. Knowing that they could do that on the road, should give this far more experienced Duke team (than last year's Duke team) the confidence to know that they can compete with the 'Canes here at home. Including last season's cover at Miami, the Blue Devils are 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range. Including the cover at Maryland two weeks ago, they've also quietly gone a profitable 5-0-1 ATS their last games played in the month of October. Coming off a bye and catching their guests in a difficult spot, I expect them to improve on those stats here. *9 |
|||||||
10-16-10 | Vanderbilt Commodores v. Georgia Bulldogs -15.5 | Top | 0-43 | Win | 100 | 74 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA. After a very disappointing 1-4 start, the Bulldogs took out their frustrations on Tennessee last week. They limited the Volunteers to a mere nine rushing yards (on 26 carries) en route to a one-sided 41-14 victory. I had a big play on the Bulldogs in that game. This week, I look for them to build positive momentum off that big win and put together another dominant effort.
Last week, the Bulldogs were hosting a Tennessee team which was off an emotional loss at LSU. This week, they're facing a relatively weak Vanderbilt team, one which they've dominated for years. Last season, laying -7.5 points, the Bulldogs traveled to Vanderbilt and won by 24 points. This year, the game is being played at Georgia and the gap in talent is arguably even bigger. Note that Georgia returned 15 starters from last year's 8-5 team. On the other hand, the Commodores returned only 11 starters from last season's 2-10 team. It should be mentioned that junior RB Caleb King was arrested and will serve a two game suspension starting Saturday. That said, I expect QB Aaron Murray to have no trouble leading the offense. In last week's play on Georgia, I noted the following: "...It should be noted that Georgia got receiver A.J. Green back from a four-game suspension last week. Green, a big-time talent, had seven catches for 119 yards and two touchdowns. Needless to say, he's a welcome addition..." Green followed up that performance by catching six passes for 96 yards, with another touchdown, vs. the Vols. The Georgia defense was particularly dominant. The Vols scored only 14 points and had just 12 first downs. They also managed a mere nine rushing yards on 26 carries. That victory was desperately needed. However, Richt and co. know that they badly need to follow it up with another. The Commodores have alternated pointspread wins and losses. In Week 1, they covered at Northwestern, losing by two. In Week 2, they got blown out at LSU, losing by two. That was followed by a solid win at Mississippi State. They haven't been able to string together back to back strong performances though, as they were blown out at Connecticut in their following game. Last week, to their credit, they blew out a bad Eastern Michigan team. Needless to say, the competition they'll face here will be far tougher. Based on last week's big win over Eastern Michigan and based on Georgia's poor overall record, many will probably favor the underdog here. However, I expect the Commodores "pattern" of alternating pointspread wins and losses to continue, with the more talented Bulldogs building off last week's victory and delivering another double-digit blowout. *10 |
|||||||
10-13-10 | Central Florida v. Marshall +5.5 | Top | 35-14 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on MARSHALL. I successfully played on the Thundering Herd when these teams faced each other last season. Listed as seven point underdogs, the Thundering Herd led that game 20-14 in the closing minutes. However, the Knights' Bruce Miller (C-USA defensive Player of the Year) forced a fumble that UCF recovered. The Knights turned that into the game-winning touchdown, earning the 21-20 victory. While that was a heartbreaker for Marshall players and fans, those of us who took the points with the Herd earned a relatively easy cover. I believe that Marshall is again providing us with excellent value.
The Knights come in as the much hotter team. They crushed UAB last week, improving to 7-0 their last seven league games, dating back to last season. Marshall, on the other hand, is off a blowout loss at Southern Miss. Marshall's loss came on the road though while UCF's victory came at home. Note that the Knights lost their last road game (at K-State) and that their lone road victory came vs. a fairly weak Buffalo team. Looking back further and we find that the Knights are just 5-10 SU their last 15 road games, although they did win their last game here at Marshall. Central Florida's coach George O'Leary knows that Marshall will provide a tougher test than one might expect from their record. He was quoted as saying: "This game here concerns me..." While the Herd are only 1-4 overall, note that two of their losses came to 2nd ranked Ohio State, and 22nd ranked West Virginia and that three of the four losses came on the road. Also, note that they took WVU all the way to Overtime, losing 24-21. (The Herd had a 21-6 edge in that one.) That was one of their two home games. Their other home game was against Ohio - and the Herd won that one. So, that means that they're 1-1 here with both games being decided by a field goal or less. Brian Anderson is expected to be back under center for the Herd. In this season's two starts here, he's completed 41 of 59 passes for 524 yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions. Looking back further and we find that the Herd are 6-4 their last 10 home games, dating back to their 2008 loss vs. UCF here. Note that ALL four of those losses came by seven points or less and that three of them came by four or fewer. In other words, Marshall has been very competitive here, for quite some time now. Note that the Herd are coming off a bye, giving them some extra preparation time here. Additionally, it should also be noted that are a perfect 4-0 ATS (3-1 SU) the last four times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. During the same stretch, the Knights were just 2-5 ATS (3-4 SU) when listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. This a very big game for the Herd and they've been offering free and discounted tickets in an effort to pack the 40,000-seat stadium. In a game that could easily come down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points with the home underdog. *10 |
|||||||
10-09-10 | USC Trojans +10 v. Stanford Cardinal | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 33 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm playing on USC. Both these teams suffered their first loss last week. One could argue that the Trojans' loss was more "disappointing," as it came vs. a team (Washington) that the Trojans thought they should have beaten and as the loss came by only a point. I feel that Stanford's loss may be even more difficult to bounce back from.
True, the Cardinal were underdogs at Oregon, so they weren't really expected to win. However, all that changed when they got up 21-3. At that point, Stanford knew it had a great shot at scoring the upset and that it would have become a legit player among the nation's top teams. That didn't happen though, as the Ducks bounced back and crushed the Cardinal by a 52-31 score. That type of disappointing defeat could easily have at least some of the Stanford players thinking about "what could have been." As I mentioned last week, I do have a lot of respect for Stanford. That didn't stop me from playing on Oregon though and it won't stop me from backing USC here. The Trojans may have lost last week and they may not be what they were a few years ago, but they're still a powerful program with plenty of talent across the board. They're hungry to prove that they're still an elite team and should also be motivated to avenge last year's blowout loss. While I've noted that this is a different team, its still worth noting that the Trojans are 30-12 SU the last 42 times that they were coming off a conference loss, including a perfect 5-0 SU their last five in that situation. (During the same stretch, Stanford is 3-4 SU/ATS when coming off a Conference loss. Here, the Trojans are getting more than a touchdown to work with. Note that the line has climbed from its opener. In a game that could easily come down to the wire, I feel that provides us with excellent value on the visitors. *9 |
|||||||
10-09-10 | Alabama v. South Carolina +7.5 | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. I didn't play last week's Alabama/Florida game. I did play against the Crimson Tide in their most recent road game though, at Arkansas, two weeks ago. The Tide won
that game but it wasn't easy and they didn't cover. Now, off last week's big home win vs. Florida, they'll be playing their third road game in the past four weeks and third straight top 25 team. Eventually, that tends to take a toll. Once again, the Tide will be matched up against a talented, well-coached and hungry opponent. Once again, as they have in each of their past two regular season SEC road games, I expect them to have their hands full. I say that the Tide had their hands full in each of their last two regular season road games, as prior to Arkansas, their previous SEC reg. season road game was against Auburn last season. (Laying -10 points, the Tide won by five, 26-21. Auburn outgained Alabama 332-291 in that game and dominated on the ground 151-73. The game was close the entire way with Alabama winning in the final 90 seconds.) We know Alabama is an excellent team. As noted, South Carolina is no slouch either though. The Gamecocks can run the ball. They're also efficient at throwing the ball. While the defense hasn't been quite as stout as Spurrier probably would have liked thus far, the talent is there and the Gamecocks are also very capable on that side of the ball. Also, note that the Gamecocks already have 12 sacks through four games. The Tide won last year's meeting, at Alabama. The Gamecocks covered though, losing by 14. Spurrier is now 2-1 vs. Saban. Additionally, the home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings in the series. This year's Alabama team is extremely strong but did lose a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball from last year. South Carolina, which returned 16 starters (2nd most in the SEC) is arguably stronger. The Gamecocks, who are coming off a bye, are 12-3 SU and 9-5-1 ATS their last 15 home lined games. That includes a 1-0-1 ATS (1-1 SU) mark as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. I believe that homefield and the advantage of having the bye will both prove to be extremely important. While I'll grabe the points, I won't be at all surprised if Spurrier's Gamecocks step up and shock the champs with an outright victory. *10 |
|||||||
10-09-10 | Tennessee v. Georgia -10.5 | Top | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA. I really like how this one sets up for the home team. The Volunteers are a relatively young team, one with a new coaching staff. Last week, they went on the road and played their first road game of the season. It wasn't exactly an "easy" venue either, as they were playing at Baton Rouge vs. an undefeated LSU squad.
Give the young Vols credit, as they played a terrific game. Listed as double-digit underdogs, they very nearly scored the outright upset. In fact, if not for an absolutely bizarre final play, the Vols would have done so. With Tennessee leading by four, the Tigers, who were right down near the goal line, had one play left to punch it in. They snapped the ball for the final play but the QB wasn't ready and it resulted in a fumble. As time expired, Tennessee players and coach ran on the field, thinking that they had won the game. It wasn't meant to be though, as the officials ruled that the Vols had too many men on the field on the previous play. Given another chance, the Tigers made the most of it and scored the winning touchdown. Talk about a devastating loss. To come that close to scoring a huge, season-changing upset. Only to have it snatched away from you at the last second. That's difficult for any team. Its even worse for a young team which is now playing back to back road games for the first time - while doing so against a talented but under-achieving Georgia team which figures to have absolutely no sympathy. The Bulldogs were expecting to have a strong season but have gotten off to a terrible 1-4 start. Like the Vols, Georgia is also off a very difficult loss - although it arguably wasn't quite as devastating as Tennessee's defeat. The Bulldogs are an experienced team though (they're 15 starters was the 3rd most in the SEC) and they've got a veteran and proven head coach in Mark Richt. They're also playing at home, where they've gone 72-29 SU in lined games, dating back to the early '90s. Three of this season's four losses came on the road - and the lone home loss was against a good Arkansas squad. It should be noted that Georgia got receiver A.J. Green back from a four-game suspension last week. Green, a big-time talent, had seven catches for 119 yards and two touchdowns. Needless to say, he's a welcome addition. They're poor record notwithstanding, I believe that the Bulldogs are the more talented team. I also feel that they'll be able to do a better job in "dealing with" last week's loss. Even with last week's loss, the Bulldogs are still a profitable 13-3 ATS the last 16 times that they were off back to back losses. I expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit victory on Saturday afternoon. *10 |
|||||||
10-08-10 | Oklahoma State v. UL Lafayette +24 | 54-28 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Louisiana-Lafayette. The Cowboys come in off a "thrilling victory," with a perfect record and having earned themselves a top 25 ranking. That should all work in our favor here. For starters, the record and ranking have helped to provide us with a generously high pointspread. Additionally, they could easily have the Cowboys "patting themselves on the back" a little and starting to read the headlines about how good they are.
At the very least, this figures to be a difficult spot for the Cowboys to focus on the task at hand. This is a relatively young team, one which returned only eight starters. They just played a "thriller," against a quality opponent on National TV. With another showdown vs. Texas Tech on deck (followed by their homecoming game vs. Nebraska) it may be easy to overlook an opponent like Louisiana, from the "lowly" Sun Belt Conference. Note that Oklahoma State is already 0-1 ATS against the Sun Belt this season, beating Troy by only three points. More importantly, note that this is the young Cowboys' first road game of the season. The Ragin' Cajuns are 8-3 ATS their last 11 games against teams from the Big 12 and they were 6-2 SU/ATS in October the past two years. They've got a veteran QB (Chris Masson) and are coming off a momentum-building 28-27 win over North Texas. Speaking of Masson, he threw for a career-high 310 yards last week, adding two TD's. Naturally, the Rajin' Cajuns should be "fired up" for a rare chance to play on National TV (ESPN 2.) True, its going to be hard for Louisiana to stop Oklahoma State from scoring. They should be able to score some points themselves though, particularly when considering that the Oklahoma State defense permitted 535 total yards last week. The Cajuns are 9-4 SU (7-5 ATS in lined games) at home since the start of the 2008 season. A closer look at those four home losses shows that they all came by 22 points or less. I look for them to keep this one close for longer than expected, doing enough to cover the big number. *9 |