03-28-21 |
Oregon v. USC -1.5 |
Top |
68-82 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (644) minus the point(s) versus the Oregon Ducks (643). THE SITUATION: USC (24-7) has won five of their last six games after their 85-51 win against Kansas as a 1-point favorite last Monday night. Oregon (21-6) has won seven of their last eight games after their 95-80 upset win against Iowa as a 5-point underdog on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS MINUS THE POINTS: The laptops love this USC team — metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks them 6th in the nation. It starts on defense where the Trojans lead the nation by holding their opponents to just 41.4% shooting inside the arc. Head coach Andy Enfield has length that makes it difficult on opposing shooters. Evan Mobley is a rising star — the 7’0 freshman center patrols the paint and helps USC block 13.6% of their opponent’s shots, 18th best in the nation. The Trojans should build off the momentum of their 34-point win against the Jayhawks as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after a double-digit win. USC made 57.1% of their shots against what had been an improving Kansas defense. That was the third straight game that the Trojans made at least 50% of their shots — and it was the fourth time over a six-game stretch where they shot at least 50% from the field while never shooting less than 47.2% during that span. The personality of this team suggests they will continue to build off this success. USC has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after shooting at least 47% from the field in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after making at least 47% of their shots in five straight games. And while the Trojans nailed 11 of their 18 shots from 3-point land against the Jayhawks, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after shooting at least 50% from 3-point range in their last game. Oregon probably pulled off the best win of their season by upsetting the Hawkeyes last week. We had the Ducks in that game after benefitting from getting a bye from not playing a VCU team that has to cancel because of COVID protocols. Those turn of events not only kept the Oregon players rested but it allowed for the coaching staff to get a jump on preparing for Iowa rather than decompressing from a Saturday night game. Oregon versus VCU was my favorite situation from the Round of 64 — so I feel robbed that we didn’t get the chance to profit from it. And that sentiment should demonstrate that I like this Ducks team — just not in this spot. Oregon has won twelve of their last fourteen games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning at least twelve of their last fifteen games. The Ducks have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Oregon is not a great defensive team. They rank 60th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — and they plummet to 103rd nationally in defense when playing on the road. Head coach Dana Altman deploys several zone defenses that can be tricky to adjust to for those opponents unfamiliar with them — but that will not be the case against this USC team. Half-court defense is a particulate concern — they have an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.1% which is 238th in the nation. Oregon is also reliant on 3-point shooting — they are 14th in the nation by converting 38.2% of their 3-pointers. The Ducks may become reliant on their 3s against the stout Trojans’ interior defense. But while Oregon averages 22 shots from distance per game, USC has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games against teams who average at least 21 shots from 3-point range per game. The Ducks outscore their opponents by +7.3 PPG as well — but the Trojans have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after 15 games into the season against teams who outscore their opponents by at least +4.0 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: USC has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored on a neutral court. The Trojans have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games in the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the USC Trojans (644) minus the point(s) versus the Oregon Ducks (643). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-28-21 |
UCLA +7.5 v. Alabama |
|
88-78 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (645) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (646). THE SITUATION: UCLA (20-9) won their third straight game in the Big Dance with their 67-47 victory against Abilene Christian as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. Alabama (26-6) has won eight in a row after their 96-77 win against Maryland as a 6-point favorite on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: This is contrarian play — going against an Alabama team off an outlier performance against a UCLA team that appears to be a bit undervalued. The odds have been pushed up to the Crimson Tide laying 7 points in many spots despite the laptops projecting around a four-point spread. That’s just a guide for me — but getting close to a field goal of value for a single-digit underdog in the Big Dance is always intriguing. Alabama made 53% of their shots against the Terrapins which was the best shooting performance in their last ten games. They also made 16 of 33 shots from behind the arc — despite shooting only 31.1% of their 3-pointers in their previous nine games combined. It is more likely that the Tide shoot closer to the number they have been in their previous nine games. The Crimson Tide have outrebounded their last three opponents by at least 7 boards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least 6.0 RPG. Alabama will not own the boards against UCLA as they have in their last three games — the Bruins led the Pac-12 by holding their opponents to rebounding only 24.5% of their missed shots. UCLA has improved their play on defense after a rough opening half against Michigan State in the play-in (ruining our Under). The Bruins held Abilene Christian to just 29.8% shooting while keeping them at just 47 points. UCLA has covered all three of their NCAA Tournament games which is a good sign for them tonight since they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. The Bruins are also 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a point spread win. Head coach Mick Cronin will need to slow this game down to get Alabama out of their rhythm — and that is his preferred style given his years of overseeing a grinding style as the coach of Cincinnati. This team has more offensive threats than his Bearcats’ teams — UCLA is making 43% of their shots from behind the arc in this Big Dance.
FINAL TAKE: The Bruins have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams outside the Pac-12. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on a neutral court with the number in the 145 to 149.5 point range. If the Tide shoots 50% from 3-point land again, it will be a rout — but that is true for any team left in the tournament. The problem with launching so many 3s as Nate Oats’ team is that when the pressure mounts, the 3s start clanking more and more off the rim. I am reminded of the Houston Rockets missing 27 straight 3-pointers in a Game Seven against Golden State in the NBA — and they had James Harden. 10* CBB UCLA-Alabama TBS-TV Special with the UCLA Bruins (645) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-28-21 |
Florida State v. Michigan -2 |
Top |
58-76 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (628) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (627). THE SITUATION: Michigan (22-4) advanced to the Sweet 16 with their gritty 86-78 victory against LSU as a 5-point favorite last Monday. Florida State (18-6) has won three of their last four games after their 71-53 upset win against Colorado as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan was resilient to take the Tigers’ best punch but still rally from a 9-point deficit to defeat an LSU team that is loaded with talent and playing at a high level. Juwan Howard displayed his coaching acumen making many in-game adjustments that changed the momentum. And the Wolverines had several role players step up to make big shots. The loss of Isaiah Livers has been absorbed by several players. Eli Brooks led the team with 21 points with the senior making several clutch baskets. Transfer Chaundee Brown is getting more playing time with Livers on the shelf — he responded with 21 points himself. Michigan has played worse this season in the times when Brooks has been hurt rather than Livers — his role on the team is more vital this season given the emergence of freshman phenom Hunter Dickinson at center. Brandon Johns took Livers' spot in the starting lineup — he had a solid 7 points with 5 rebounds in 27 minutes. Johns is a former five-star recruit under John Beilein who can create his own shot as more of a post-up player than Livers. Michigan should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win. The offense was clicking even without Livers with the Wolverines making 53.8% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Wolverines scored 82 points in their opening-round game against Texas Southern — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 80 points in two straight games. Only Gonzaga, Baylor, and Michigan rank inside the top-ten in Adjusted Efficiency in both offense and defense. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games when favored. I take a backseat to no one in my respect for Florida State head coach Leonard Hamilton. We had them in their upset in against Colorado — but that was likely an outlier performance. The Seminoles made 52.2% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. But Michigan may be catching Florida State at the right time. This is the best 3-point shooting team in Hamilton’s tenure at Florida State — but they have hit only 6 of their 26 shots (23.0%) 3-pointers in the Big Dance which may be a harbinger of things to come under tournament pressure facing elite defenses. As it is, the Seminoles are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Florida State has flexed their muscles on defense by holding their first two opponents to 53.5 PPG in the Big Dance. But the Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after not allowing their last two opponents to score more than 55 points. Florida State has balanced scoring and a deep bench — but I am not sure they have a reliable go-to scorer in the half-court when they need a basket. The Seminoles rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home — but they fall to 31st in that metric when playing on the road. And while their length on defense will disrupt Michigan, they lack a post-defender who can handle Dickinson down low. The 7-footer will likely be a difference-maker in this game — especially on the boards. The Seminoles allow their opponents to pull down 31.6% of their missed shots, ranking 296th nationally. Florida State is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan is 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games played on a neutral court — and they are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite. Florida State is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (628) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (627). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-27-21 |
Syracuse v. Houston -6 |
|
46-62 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:55 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (648) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (647). THE SITUATION: Houston (26-3) has won nine straight games after their 63-60 win against Rutgers as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Syracuse (18-9) has won five of their last six games after their 75-72 win against West Virginia as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Field House in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston point guard Dejon Jarreau is dealing with a hip injury — but he practiced on Thursday, and he has been upgraded to probable to play in this game. I am expecting Jarreau to be around 75% effective. The Cougars should play well tonight after dodging a bullet against the Scarlet Knights. Houston has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 straight games after a point spread loss. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite — and this includes them covering the point spread in all six of these situations this season. Syracuse has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after winning at least four of their last five games. And while the Orange have covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in at least six straight games. Additionally, while Syracuse has been outshot by 20 and 18 shots in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after getting outshot by at least 20 attempts in two straight games. The Orange get dominated on the glass — they allow their opponents to pull down 34.2% of their missed shots, ranking 340th in the nation. North Carolina rebounded 53.3% and 56.5% of their missed shots in their two games against the Orange. Granted, the Tar Heels are the number one team in the nation in offensive rebounding — but the Cougars are the second-best team in the country by rebounding 39.9% of their misses. Syracuse’s plan is to make 3-pointers — they have averaged 11.5 made 3-pointers per game in their last six contests. They have made 15 and 14 shots from behind the arc in their previous two games. Can they keep that up tonight? Against a Houston team that is 12th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 29.3% from behind the arc? As it is, the Orange have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after making at least 13 shots from 3-point land in the last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after making at least 10 shots from behind the arc in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: If Syracuse makes another 14 or so 3-pointers, they will likely cover the point spread tonight. But teams who live by the 3, usually and eventually die by the 3. Houston has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as a favorite. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing on a neutral court. 10* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Houston Cougars (648) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (647). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-27-21 |
Oral Roberts v. Arkansas -11 |
|
70-72 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:25 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (624) minus the points versus the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (623). THE SITUATION: Arkansas (24-6) reached the Sweet 16 with their 68-66 win against Texas Tech as a 2-point underdog last Sunday. Oral Roberts (18-10) has won seven in a row with their 81-78 upset win against Florida as a 9-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Banker’s Life Fieldhouse.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAZORBACKS MINUS THE POINTS: Oral Roberts has been on a magical run pulling off two upsets as a 15-seed. I expect the bubble to burst for the Golden Eagles tonight. Oral Roberts has won fifteen of their last twenty games — but this is a program that has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after winning at least fifteen of their last twenty. The Golden Eagles have also failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after pulling off two straight upset victories. They survived two close games settled by three points against Ohio State and Florida — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning their last two games by six points or less. And while they have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in at least five straight games. This team has some glaring weaknesses. It starts with their defense as they rank 239th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Florida made 55.2% of their shots against them — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after allowing their last opponent to shoot at least 55% from the field. They also are weak in defending their defensive glass — they allow their opponents to pull down 33.2% of their missed shots, ranking 332nd in the nation. The Buckeyes and Gators pulled down 39.3% and 35.1% of their missed shots against them. Oral Roberts was out-rebounded by 17 and 13 boards in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after getting out-rebounded by at least ten boards in two straight games. Arkansas has advanced despite not playing very well in their previous two games — they had to rally from a double-digit deficit on both occasions. The Razorbacks only shot 27% from behind the arc in those two games — and they averaged just 1.09 and 1.00 Points-Per-Possession. They did not even register a steal against the Red Raiders which was a first in program history. Arkansas averages 1.12 PPP in Adjusted Efficiency while ranking 63rd in the nation by stealing the ball in 10.6% of their opponent’s possessions — so they should see better days on both fronts. The Razorbacks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. This is a team that ranks eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the total set in the 150s. Arkansas has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of a meeting between these two teams on December 20th which Arkansas won by an 87-76 score. The Razorbacks fell behind by 10 points but rallied to win despite only making 4 of their 24 shots from 3-point range. Arkansas dominated the offensive glass by pulling down 49% of their missed shots — and they outscored the Golden Eagles by a 57-36 margin in the second half. Eric Musselman is well-equipped to make adjustments from that game — he already inserted Jaylin Williams in the starting lineup for the 7’3 Connor Vanover who is more versatile in defending the perimeter. And their 6’7 center Justin Smith is one of the most versatile defenders in the nation. 10* CBB Oral Roberts-Arkansas TBS-TV Special with the Arkansas Razorbacks (624) minus the points versus the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (623). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-27-21 |
Villanova v. Baylor -7.5 |
|
51-62 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 5:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (622) minus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (621). THE SITUATION: Baylor (24-2) has won six of their last seven games after their 76-63 victory against Wisconsin as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Villanova (18-6) reached the Sweet 16 with an 84-61 victory against North Texas as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Baylor got their defense working as they forced 14 Badgers’ turnovers representing 21.9% of their possessions. The Bears have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a double-digit victory. Baylor is a reliable favorite because they multiple ways to generate more scoring possessions even if their 3-pointers are not falling — and they lead the nation by making 41.5% of their 3-pointers. The Bears are third nationally by forcing turnovers in 24.7% of their opponent’s possessions. They are sixth in the nation by pulling down 36.7% of their missed shots. Villanova allows their opponents to make 34.9% of their 3-pointers, ranking 238th in the nation — and that is an ominous number when facing this Baylor team that leads the nation by converting 41.2% of their 3-pointers. The Wildcats’ defense worsens when playing on the road — while they rank 65th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 122nd in that metric on the road. Villanova comes off one of the best games of their season on Sunday. They made 15 of their 30 shots from behind the arc en route to a 55.4% field goal percentage which was the best shooting effort in their last nine games.
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03-27-21 |
Oregon State v. Loyola-Chicago -6.5 |
|
65-58 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 2:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (626) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (625). THE SITUATION: Loyola-Chicago (26-4) has won eight in a row with their 71-58 win against Illinois as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. Oregon State (19-12) has won eight of their last nine games with their 80-70 upset win against Oklahoma State as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Field House in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMBLERS MINUS THE POINTS: Will Loyola-Chicago suffer a letdown after defeating their in-state rival that dodges them in non-conference play? Maybe — but maybe not. It is the Ramblers that has the most recent Final Four run back in 2018 of the two-state programs. Cameron Krutwig was a significant piece on that team — and is now a senior leader of this group. Looking to the team trends, Loyola has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after a win by 10 or more points. This is a team that thrives off momentum — they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win, and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. And while the Ramblers have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in at least four straight games. This is a balanced team that ranks third in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. Loyola leads the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home.
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03-27-21 |
Memphis -3.5 v. Colorado State |
Top |
90-67 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (629) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (630). THE SITUATION: Memphis (18-8) has won three of their last four games after defeating Boise State by a 59-56 score as a 4-point favorite in the NIT Quarterfinals on Thursday. Colorado State (20-6) has also won three of their last four games after their 65-61 upset win against North Carolina State as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday in their NIT Quarterfinals contest. This game will be played on a neutral court at Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis advanced despite making only 42.9% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last three games. Penny Hardaway’s team should build off their momentum — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win by 6 points or less. And while Memphis had covered the point spread in seven straight games before not covering against the Broncos, they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Furthermore, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning at least two in a row. Hardaway has been criticized for his coaching — but the former NBA star has overseen the development of his team rising to be number one in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation. Memphis has played two straight Unders — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after playing their last two games Under the Total. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. And in their last 6 games when playing their second game in three days, Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of these contests. Hardaway’s team has played better away from home — while they rank 50th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they improve to 31st in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games in games with the total set in the 130s. Colorado State may be due for a letdown after rallying in the second half to defeat the Wolfpack on Thursday. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win. Despite the win, they are scoring only 68.8 PPG over their last five games with a 40.6% field goal percentage over that span which is a dropoff of -5.5 PPG from their season average where they are making 46.9% of their shots. Colorado State has been more effective at home at Fort Collins where they rank 63rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. When away from home, the Rams fall to 87th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. The biggest problem is with the play of their offense — consistent with the decline in their recent five games. While Colorado State ranks 65th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 134th in that metric on the road. Protecting the basketball has been an issue — they turn the ball over in 19.6% of their possessions, ranking 205th nationally. Memphis forces turnovers in 22.3% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 28th nationally.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado State is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on a neutral court as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on a neutral court as a dog getting 3.5 to 6 points. Memphis has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. 25* CBB NIT Semifinals Game of the Year with the Memphis Tigers (629) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (630). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-25-21 |
NC State +1 v. Colorado State |
Top |
61-65 |
Loss |
-112 |
19 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (613) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus Colorado State (614). THE SITUATION: NC State (14-10) has won six of their last seven games with their 75-61 win against Davidson as a 2.5-point favorite last Thursday. Colorado State (19-6) has won two of their last three games with their 75-73 win against Buffalo as a 2-point favorite last Friday. This quarterfinals match in the National Invitational Tournament is being played on a neutral court at Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK PLUS THE POINTS: NC State nailed 58.8% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the best shooting effort of the season. That typically is a red flag for me as an outlier effort that is due for regression. But that was the fifth time in their last seven games that NC State has made at least 50% of their shots. This is a team peaking in March — despite losing their top-scorer, Devon Daniels, to a season-ending ACL tear at the end o January. Kevin Keatts kept coaching — and he has redesigned the offense to rely more on his frontcourt. Junior forward Jericole Hellems has averaged 13.8 PPG in his last 13 games. 6’10 senior D.J. Funderburk led the team with 21 points against Davidson. Four of the Wolfpack’s best graded net efficiency performances have taken place since February 6th. The team trends suggest the strong effort last week is a sign of good things to come for this team — they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. And while the Wolfpack’s with the Wildcats finished Under the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing an Under. NC State also tends to play better on the road. While they rank 93rd nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they rise to 27th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road fueled by a ranking 13th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Another metrics projection system I consider ranks the Wolfpack as the 11th best team in the nation on the road. Colorado State has played their basketball at home in Fort Collins where they have an edge given their familiarity with the higher altitude. The Rams rank 64th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home — but they fall to 90th nationally in that metric on the road. The biggest dropoff away from home is the performance of their offense. While Colorado State is 68th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 124th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road. This is not a great matchup for the Rams either given their propensity to commit turnovers. Colorado State turns the ball over in 19.8% of their possessions, the 222nd worst mark in the nation. They were even worse in the Mountain West Conference with a turnover rate of 21.9%, ninth-worst. The Wolfpack forced turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 40th nationally. Colorado State has not committed more than 11 turnovers in four straight games — but not only have the Rams failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not committing more than 11 turnovers in two straight games, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not committing more than 11 turnovers in three straight games. Despite protecting the basketball better as of late (albeit against opponents not as adept at forcing turnovers as NC State), the top-five performances this season for Colorado State, in terms of efficiency, all took place before February.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on a neutral court with the total set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. NC State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court as a favorite or picks ‘em — and they have covered the point spread 9 of their last 14 games on a neutral court with the number set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (613) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus Colorado State (614). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-24-21 |
Coastal Carolina v. Pepperdine -4 |
Top |
61-84 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Pepperdine Wave (610) minus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (609). THE SITUATION: Pepperdine (14-12) advanced to the Championship Game of the College Basketball Invitational with their 82-71 win against Bellarmine as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Coastal Carolina (18-7) won their semifinals game against Stetson with a 77-72 win in overtime as a 7.5-point favorite. The CBI is being played at a neutral court at Oceans Center in Dayton Beach.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Pepperdine had high expectations to begin the season with four starters back from the group that finished 16-16. Lorenzo Romar has talent on his team — led by senior Colbey Ross who is averaging 17.6 PPG and junior Kessler Edwards who added 17.5 PPG. The Wave suffered close losses to good teams last season — including 2-point losses to Gonzaga and Arizona. It was more of the same for Romar’s team this season with an early triple-overtime loss to UCLA (when the Bruins still had a healthy Chris Smith) and a 5-point loss to San Diego State. The Wave then endured a front-loaded schedule in the West Coast Conference given COVID cancellations — they still played Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s twice and BYU three times (including the conference tournament) but did not benefit from getting to load up on the bottom half of the conference. Pepperdine did defeat Saint Mary’s and BYU in the regular season — but they lost an overtime heartbreaker to the Cougars in the West Coast Conference tournament, despite a spectacular effort from Ross. The Wave should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Pepperdine has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with one day or less of rest. The Wave are playing their best basketball of the season now in March with four wins in their last five games. They have scored at least 77 points in each of their last five games while averaging 81.4 PPG with a 48.5% shooting clip over that span. Pepperdine has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. The Wave have also been more effective on the road. While Pepperdine ranks 141st in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they improve to 66th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150. Pepperdine is also 38-14-2 ATS in their last 54 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Coastal Carolina has the burden of playing without rest after a game that required overtime — and, as it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win. And while the Chanticleers have played two straight games Over the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after playing two straight Overs. This is a big step-up in competition for this team whose best opponent this season was a Wofford team that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks at 126th in the nation — and they lost by 11 points. Pomeroy ranks Pepperdine as the 105th team nationally. Twenty-two of the 25 teams Coastal Carolina played this season are ranked 211th or lower by Pomeroy.
FINAL TAKE: Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em — and the Wave have covered the point spread in 7 straight games played on a neutral court as a favorite. 25* CBB CBI Game of the Year with the Pepperdine Wave (610) minus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (609). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-22-21 |
USC v. Kansas +1.5 |
|
85-51 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
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At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (822) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the USC Trojans (821). THE SITUATION: Kansas (21-8) has won four straight games after their 93-84 win against Eastern Washington as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. USC (23-7) has won four of their last five games after their 72-56 victory against Drake as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Kansas is getting back to complete health after their COVID shutdown during the Big 12 tournament. Their freshman, Jalen Wilson, a rising star, was cleared to leave quarantine after missing Saturday’s game — he will be available for this game. Center David McCormack seemed in fine form after the long pause as he scored 20 of his 22 points in the second half. McCormack will have the responsibility of slowing down the Trojans’ Evan Mobley. The Jayhawks may have been a step slow on defense after their return from quarantine as they allowed Eastern Washington to make 50% of their shots which was tied for the highest opponent field goal percentage in their last ten games. Kansas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game — including all four of those circumstances this season. The Jayhawks trailed the Eagles by a 46-38 score at halftime — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 22 games after allowing at least 45 points in the first half of their last game. Kansas has won nine of their last ten games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games after winning their last ten. Furthermore, the Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when playing their second game in three days. And in their last 30 games with the Total set in the 130s, Kansas has covered the point spread in 20 of those games. USC was outstanding against Drake — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win. And while the Trojans had not covered the point spread in three straight games before covering against the Bulldogs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after covering the point spread only once in their last three games. USC nailed 8 of their 15 shots from behind the arc to help their 50% field goal percentage for the game. The Trojans have made at least 48.3% of their shots in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after making at least 48% of their shots in three straight games. USC is 13th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home — but they drop to 49th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when on the road. They held Drake to just 29.4% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after holding their last opponent to no better than 33% shooting.
FINAL TAKE: In Bill Self, I Trust — at least in this virtual pick ‘em. He is the best in the business in drawing up plays — and he is elite in making second-half adjustments. USC only makes 65.4% of their free throws, ranking 328th in the nation — and I hate that part of their game in a contest expected to be so close. Kansas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em. 10* CBB Monday Late Show Bailout with Kansas Jayhawks (822) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the USC Trojans (821). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-22-21 |
Colorado v. Florida State -1.5 |
Top |
53-71 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (828) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (827). THE SITUATION: Florida State (17-6) has won two of their last three games after their 64-54 win against UNC-Greensboro as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. Colorado (23-8) has won seven of their last eight games after their 96-73 win against Georgetown as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Indiana Farmers Coliseum.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES MINUS THE POINT(S): Fascinating situation here with metrics guru Ken Pomeroy projecting Colorado as a 2-point winner with another analytics guru I peruse projecting the Bufaloes as a 4-point winner. Yet the numbers I lean most heavily on — that values home/road splits the most — has Florida State a 1-point favorite which correlates with what the oddsmakers are thinking. I am with the oddsmakers in this one. While Colorado is 5th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency, ranking 7th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they drop to 15th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency while ranking 21st on offense and 38th on defense. And the Buffaloes come off a wild outlier performance on Saturday where they torched the nets against a helpless Hoyas team by nailing 11 of their 17 shots from behind the arc. Colorado made a season-high 60.7% of their shots in that game — but I fully expect that the Regression Gods will be making an appearance tonight. The Seminoles are 26th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.1%. Their ability to use all five players on the court to switch off makes it very difficult on opponents. They are the tallest team in the nation according to Pomeroy’s numbers. Colorado is led by star guard McKinley Wright — but he’s just 6’0 who will likely struggle against the length that Florida State deploys. The Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing their second game on the road in three days. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Then there is head coach Tad Boyle. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 postseason games under Boyle including four of their last five games in the Big Dance. Florida State did not make a 3-pointer on Saturday against the Spartans — so the Regression Gods can kill two birds with one stone when they make their appearance tonight. The Seminoles are sixth in the nation by making 39.0% of their 3-pointers, so they will start falling. Florida State only pulled down five offensive rebounds in that game as well — no wonder I passed on that situation. The Seminoles are 16th in the nation by rebounding 35.1% of their missed shots — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not rebounding more than five offensive boards in their last game. Florida State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a game where both teams scored at least 65 points. And in their last 6 games where it was just their second game in eight days, the Seminoles have covered the point spread in 5 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: I think Leonard Hamilton is the most underrated head coach in any sport in the country. His teams tend to be overvalued as big favorites — but they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or dog up to three points. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Second Round Game of the Year with the Florida State Seminoles (828) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (827). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-22-21 |
LSU v. Michigan -4 |
|
78-86 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (826) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (825). THE SITUATION: Michigan (21-4) has won two of their last three games after their 82-66 win against Texas Southern on Saturday as a 28.5-point favorite. LSU (19-9) has won five of their last six games with their 76-61 victory against St. Bonaventure as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan will miss the senior leadership of Isaiah Livers who is likely not available for the NCAA tournament with the stress fracture in his foot — but his loss is being overstated by the pundits and betting public with the Wolverines falling to just a 4-point favorite in many spots. The Wolverines were significantly worse last year when they had to play without Livers — but there is a substantial difference between that team and the one that will take the court tonight. This group is more mature and more seasoned with another year under Juwan Howard’s guidance. Howard is a fantastic coach. And this Michigan team has freshman phenom, Hunter Dickinson. It will be junior Brandon Johns who will take Livers spot in the starting lineup — and the junior has improved significantly since last season. Johns is a former five-star recruit, so it’s not like he is a scrub. The loss of Livers’ shooting means players like Mike Smith need to step up. Smith was a prolific scorer in the Ivy League before transferring to Ann Arbor where he embraced the role of distributor. He did lead the team in scoring with 18 points on Saturday. Michigan has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a point spread loss. LSU seems to be peaking in their support by the betting public right now with five wins in their last six games. They held the Bonnies to just a 33.3% shooting percentage which was the lowest opponent field goal percentage in their last 26 games. While I appreciate that this is a talented roster, I am not convinced they figured things out to finally discover consistency. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 60 of their last 99 games on the road after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 15 points. They are thin inside as they allow their opponents to make 50.9% of their shots inside the arc — and they allow their opponents to pull down 32.4% of their missed shots, 320th in the nation. Dickinson is going to have a field day in the middle — and, frankly, so is Johns, who is more of a post player than Livers. And there is a big discrepancy between Howard and Will Wade who does not coach defense. LSU ranks 191st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road.
FINAL TAKE: LSU is just 5-12-2 ATS in their last 19 games on a neutral court as an underdog. Michigan is 33-15-3 ATS in their last 51 games on a neutral court as a favorite — and they are 11-4-2 ATS in the Big Dance as a favorite. 10* CBB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Michigan Wolverines (826) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (825). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-22-21 |
Oregon +5.5 v. Iowa |
Top |
95-80 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 12:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (823) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (824). THE SITUATION: Oregon (20-6) advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday after VCU pulled out of the tournament after a positive COVID case. The Ducks saw their six-game winning streak snapped in the semifinals of the Pac-12 tournament in a 75-64 upset loss to Oregon State as an 8-point favorite. Iowa (22-8) defeated Grand Canyon by an 86-74 score as a 17.5-point favorite on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Fieldhouse.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: I am not worried about how the cancellation of Friday’s game impacted the Ducks — I see it as just another day of rest that should help with their legs in the second half. Oregon only made 41.7% of their shots against the Beavers in the Pac-12 Championship Game — far below their 47.2% shooting percentage for the season. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by double-digits in a game where they were laying at least 7 points. Oregon was hit pretty hard by COVID which interrupted their season twice. And those circumstances were in addition to them dealing with some injuries with Eric Williams banged up for much of the season and Will Richardson out until early February with a thumb injury. The Ducks have won eleven of their last thirteen games since February 6th while exceeding point spread expectations in five straight games before getting upset in the Pac-12 tournament. Oregon has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Ducks tend to play better on the road this season. While they rank 56th in Adjusted Net Efficiency in Eugene, they improve to 40th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency when on the road. They have a dynamic set of players that ranked 16th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Oregon has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They also have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games played on a neutral court. Iowa made 53.7% of their shots on Friday which was the best scoring effort in their last 16 games. But the Hawkeyes are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Iowa is one of the best scoring teams in the nation — but they are held back on defense given the limitations of Luke Garza in the interior. The Hawkeyes ranked 60th in the nation and seventh in the Big Ten in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This suspect play on defense explains why they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. Furthermore, Iowa is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games when favored — and they are 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 games on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: While I don’t put too much stock into conference performance after three days in the Big Dance, I certainly have observed how well the Pac-12 is doing — and how disappointing the Big Ten has been. Oregon has the better head coach this afternoon — and not only are the Ducks 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games, but they have covered 6 straight games in the Big Dance under Dana Altman as the underdog. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 NCAA Tournament games when favored under Fran McCaffrey. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Second Round Underdog of the Year with the Oregon Ducks (823) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (824). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-21-21 |
Oregon State v. Oklahoma State -6 |
|
80-70 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (812) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (811). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (21-8) has won four of their last five games after their 69-60 win against Liberty as a 7-point favorite on Friday. Oregon State (18-12) has won seven of their last eight games after their 70-56 upset win against Tennessee as a 9-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma State should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have coved the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. And while the Cowboys have covered the point spread in nine of their last ten games, that bodes well for them moving forward as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in at least six of their last seven games. And they defeated the Flames despite only making 40.4% of their shots which was the lowest shooting effort in their last 11 games. Liberty made only 37.5% of their shots in that game — and Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Oregon State has pulled off four straight upsets with their 70-56 win against Tennessee as a 9-point underdog. The Beavers held the Volunteers — missing their best post player in John Fulkerson who did not play because of his concussion from the SEC tournament — to just 33.3% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in their last 15 games. Trying to defend Cade Cunningham will be a stiffer test than the Volunteers who too often disappeared on offense. Oregon State upset Colorado to win the Pac-12 tournament — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after pulling off two straight upset wins. The Beavers have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after winning at least four games in a row. Oregon State’s zone defense under head coach Wayne Tinkle holds opponents to just 30.9% shooting from behind the arc — but the Cowboys are not reliant on shooting 3s. Only 31.7% of their field goal attempts are from behind the arc which is the 299th lowest mark in the nation — and just 24.5% of their points come from made 3-pointers, the 315th lowest mark in the nation. But Oregon State is vulnerable in the interior with opponents making 52.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 263rd in the nation. Oklahoma State was second in the Big 12 by making 52.6% of their 2-point shots. They should get to the line tonight — they ranked 2nd in the Big 12 in free throw rate, and the Mean Green ranked 298th in the nation in defensive free throw rate. North Texas also allows their opponents to pull down 29.4% of their missed shots, 235th in the nation — and the Cowboys pull down 31.8% of their missed shots. Head coach Mike Boynton has many ways for his team to score points against the Beavers’ zone defense.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. 10* CBB Sunday Late Show Bailout with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (812) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (811). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-21-21 |
North Texas v. Villanova -5.5 |
Top |
61-84 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 8:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (804) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (803). THE SITUATION: Villanova (17-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 73-63 win against Winthrop as a 6-point favorite on Friday. North Texas (18-9) has won five games in a row with their 78-69 upset win in overtime against Purdue on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: North Texas has now pulled off two straight upsets that needed overtime as they pulled off the same to defeat Western Kentucky to win the Conference USA tournament. I suspect the bubble bursts for the Mean Green tonight. Before their victory against the young Boilermakers on Friday, the best team that North Texas had beat was probably Louisiana Tech that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks as the 74th best team in the nation. They lost by double-digits against Arkansas and West Virginia earlier in the season — and they lost to 8 points to North Texas. Grant McCasland is a great coach, and it is a nice story for this team. But they turn the ball over in 19.9% of their possessions — and that number rises to 20.6% of their possessions on the road, ranking 238th in the nation. They also do not get many freebies as they rank 283rd in free throw rate. Turnovers and lack of free throws are giving too many scoring opportunities to a Wildcats team that ranks eighth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. North Texas did hold the Boilermaker stock 36.2% shooting which was the highest opponent field goal percentage in their last three games. But not only have they then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not allowing their last two opponents to make better than 37% of their shots but they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after not allowing their last three opponents to shoot better than 37%. As expected, Jay Wright made adjustments to his schemes with the eight days he had since losing in the Big East quarterfinals to Georgetown. With point guard Collin Gillespie out the rest of the season, Wright had the offense structured around senior Jeremiah Robinson-Earl who is having an All-American worthy season. He scored 22 points on Friday. Sophomore Justin Moore is a rising star who can handle the point guard duties. This is Jay Wright. This is still Villanova. The program is loaded with talent. There is a reason this team has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in the Big Dance — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games when favored in the NCAA Tournament. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. In their two previous upset losses before the tournament, the one against Providence was after Moore suffered an injury that kept him out of the second half. Their upset loss to Georgetown then was by one point against a Hoyas team that looks much better ten days later. Don’t overreact to one close loss.
FINAL TAKE: Villanova is 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games when playing on a neutral court — and North Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. 25* CBB TNT Game of the Year with the Villanova Wildcats (804) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (803). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-21-21 |
Oral Roberts v. Florida -8 |
|
81-78 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (808) minus the points versus the Oral Roberts Golden Griffins (807). THE SITUATION: Florida (15-9) has won two of their last three games with their 75-70 upset win against Virginia Tech as a 1.5-point underdog on Friday. Oral Roberts (17-10) pulled off the upset of the tournament with their 75-72 triumph against Ohio State as a 15-point underdog on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Indiana Farmers Coliseum.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS MINUS THE POINTS: After pulling off the upset win against the Buckeyes, I suspect it is time for the bubble to burst for the Golden Griffins. Oral Roberts upset won the Summit League title game by a 75-72 score against North Dakota State in another nail-biter — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning their last two games by 6 points or less. And while they have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in five straight games. Before beating Ohio State, the Golden Eagles’ best win was against a South Dakota State team that metrics guru ranks at 114th in the country. They have suffered double-digit losses to Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Mississippi. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the SEC. Florida should be ready to roll as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with one day of rest. And while the Gators’ upset win against the Hokies was their first point spread cover in their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. They should have plenty of success hitting 3s against this Oral Roberts team that allows their opponents to make 34.9% of their shots from downtown, 237th in the nation. Florida hits 35.8% of their shots from behind the arc. Led by a rising superstar in Tre Mann, the Gators should overwhelm these upstarts.
FINAL TAKE: Oral Roberts has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in the postseason — including three of their last four appearances in the NCAA Tournament. Florida is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the Big Dance. 10* CBB Oral Roberts-Florida truTV Special with the Florida Gators (808) minus the points versus the Oral Roberts Golden Griffins (807). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-21-21 |
Wisconsin +6.5 v. Baylor |
|
63-76 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 2:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (801) plus the points versus the Baylor Bears (802). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (18-12) has won two of their last three games after their 85-62 upset win against North Carolina as a 2-point underdog on Friday. Baylor (23-2) has won five of their last six games after their 79-55 win against Hartford as a 25.5-point favorite on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin played one of their best games of the season in their upset win against the Tar Heels. They made 13 of their 27 shots from behind the arc. Regulars know that I typically want to fade teams coming off outlier performances. While it is one of the factors I look at, it is not a controlling variable. I do not expect the Badgers to replicate that effort. However, I do take heart that Wisconsin has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least 20 points. Greg Gard’s team has a psyche that feeds off positive or negative vibes — this is why I value team trends. Frankly, I thought this Wisconsin team was overvalued in December — but I find them undervalued now after bettors shied away from them after they lost six of eight games heading into the Big Dance. I still think it is somewhere in the middle. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games on the road after losing four of five of their last six games. The laptops love this Wisconsin team — they rank 12th by Ken Pomeroy, and they rank 11th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. Gard’s system attempts to control the tempo with a slow-pace — they rank 319th in pace this season. This helps them keep games close — they are 10-4-3 ATS in their last 17 games on a neutral court as an underdog. Baylor held Hartford to just 35.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 10 games. The Bears have struggled on the defensive end o the court — they entered the Big Dance just 180th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the last three weeks of the season. The COVID pauses they have endured have taken away important practice time where Scott Drew can address footwork issues. I think Baylor should play better defense in their tournament run — but this is not likely to be peak-Drew defensive intensity. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. Baylor has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after winning five or six of their last seven games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning at least twelve of their last fifteen games. But the Bears have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not covering the point spread in three of their last four games. These team trends tell me that Baylor is primed to experience some nervy moments this afternoon. They have generated at least 16 more shots than their last two opponents — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after attempting at least 10 more shots than their opponents in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin has five battle-tested seniors with tons of chemistry, cohesion, and experience. I think they will be a tough-out — and have thought so for months if they were in a situation like this in the tournament. Baylor is great — but these favorites with National Championship aspirations can succumb to the pressure in situations like this (see Illinois). What do the team trends say? The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite. Wisconsin is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games under Gard in the Big Dance — and they are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games in the NCAA Tournament as an underdog. 10* CBB Wisconsin-Baylor CBS-TV Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (801) plus the points versus the Baylor Bears (802). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-21-21 |
Loyola-Chicago +7 v. Illinois |
|
71-58 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 12:10 PM ET On Sunday, we will be playing the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (809) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (810). THE SITUATION: Loyola-Chicago (25-4) won their seventh game in a row with their 71-60 win against Georgia Tech as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday. Illinois (24-6) has won eight straight games with their 78-49 win against Drexel as a 19.5-point favorite on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMBLERS PLUS THE POINTS: Loyola outlasted the ACC Tournament champions in their opening-round game despite shooting 47.2% from the field which is pretty good but still their lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. The Ramblers are an outstanding shooting team that ranks 9th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.4%. Loyola should build off the momentum from that win as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a point spread win. The Ramblers are ranked 10th in the nation by metrics guru Ken Pomeroy — and they perform similarly by other analytics projections. I am trusting the laptops a bit on this one. Loyola has the pedigree of a team that should be very competitive against an, albeit, outstanding Illini team. They rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are second in the country in limiting their opponents to rebounding just 20.7% of their missed shots. They have the fifth-lowest opponent free-throw rate. They nail a healthy 35.9% of their 3-pointers. They play at the 305th slowest pace in the nation — fewer possessions lulls the opponent into their style which can be very dangerous for favorites with national championship aspirations. The Ramblers also play better on the road where they have the sixth-best Adjusted Net Efficiency — and they lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Illinois was nearly flawless against the Dragons on Friday — it will be tough for them to maintain that high, high level of play. They held Drexel to 30.6% shooting which was their lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 23 games. The Fighting Illini have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. Their 57.1% shooting percentage was their best mark in their last 25 games. The Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. They only committed five turnovers on Friday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after not committing more than five turnovers in their last game. And while the Illini raced out to a 39-21 lead at halftime, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after owning a halftime lead of at least 15 points in their last game. Additionally, Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing their second game in three days. The only negative thing I can say about this Illini team is that they are not great at the free-throw line — and that might help down the stretch for the Ramblers to keep things close. Illinois makes 68.6% of their shots at the charity stripe, ranking 244th in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: Loyola is a live dog who would love to upset their in-state rival who will not put them on their non-conference schedule. The Ramblers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the NCAA Tournament including a Final Four run in 2018 under head coach Porter Moser. They will be confident — and they are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Sunday Afternoon Tip-Off with the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (809) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (810). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-20-21 |
UCLA v. BYU -3.5 |
|
73-62 |
Loss |
-102 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (788) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (787). THE SITUATION: BYU (20-6) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in the semifinals of the West Coast Conference in an 88-78 loss to Gonzaga as a 14-point underdog on March 9th. UCLA (18-9) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 86-80 win in overtime as a 2.5-point underdog against Michigan State in the play-in game on Thursday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU had a second half lead late in the game before the undefeated Bulldogs pulled away — but they have probably played the number one team nation closer than any of their other opponents which includes Iowa, West Virginia, and Virginia. They should respond with a confident and resilient effort. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss by at least 20 points. BYU has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a game where at least 165 combined points were scored. The Cougars are a balanced team who have been more effective away from Salt Lake City. While they rank 51st in the nation i Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they improve to 15th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road. They are 26th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 25th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games with the total set in the 130s. UCLA may be due for a letdown after rallying from a 14-point deficit to eke out the win against the Spartans in overtime. The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. And while UCLA has scored at least 79 points in their last two games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. Their star player, Johnny Juzang, twisted his ankle late in the game on Thursday — he is questionable for this one. His loss would be tough to overcome — this group already lost Chris Smith in late December two a season-ending injury, who bypassed the NBA draft last spring. The Bruins played their best basketball at home where they ranked 28th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. They fall to 60th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road with a big decline in their effectiveness on defense. UCLA ranks 149th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road as compared to their rank of 60th when at home. Furthermore, the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games played on a neutral court as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the NCAA tournament as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. BYU is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 20* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the BYU Cougars (788) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (787). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-20-21 |
St Bonaventure +2 v. LSU |
|
61-76 |
Loss |
-106 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 1:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the St. Bonaventure Bonnies (781) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (782). THE SITUATION: St. Bonaventure (16-4) has won three in a row as well as six of their last seven games after winning the Atlantic 10 tournament with a 74-65 win against VCU as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. LSU (18-9) lost in the finals of the SEC tournament in an 80-79 loss to Alabama as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Assembly Hall in Bloomington.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BONNIES PLUS THE POINTS: With five-straight point spread covers, many basketball observers think this LSU team has “found another gear”. Maybe. Will Wade’s team has the talent to hang with any team in the nation. The problem has been their discipline and focus — and I am very worried about them entering the NCAA Tournament feeling themselves after a good week in the SEC tournament. LSU played their best basketball at home where they were 11-2 while ranking 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. But the Tigers were just 7-7 on the road with a +0.6 net points-per-game differential — and they fall to 44th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency away from home. The biggest area of concern is the decline in their play on defense away from Baton Rouge. While LSU ranks a mediocre 84th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 218th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Defensive rebounding is the main source of these troubles. The Tigers rank 325th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 32.8% of their missed shots. They have allowed their last four opponents to get at least 15 second-chance scoring opportunities — and Arkansas and Alabama pulled down a whopping 40% of their missed shots. LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 15 offensive rebounds in two straight games. This is a program that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the Big Dance — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament when favored. Enter St. Bonaventure who ranks 30th in the nation by pulling down 33.6% of their missed shots. This is a young-but-talented team that returned all five starters (albeit one transferred after losing his starting gig) from last year’s group that finished 19-12 last year. Head coach Mark Schmidt has overseen at least 18 wins in seven straight seasons — but this is just his team’s second appearance in the Big Dance during that span. After winning the Atlantic 10 regular season and conference titles, the Bonnies will be confident and anxious to prove themselves on this stage. St. Bonaventure has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a win against a conference opponent. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after winning three of their last four games. The Bonnies are an outstanding defensive team that has not allowed more than 65 points in seven straight games. St. Bonaventure has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. They are fourth in the nation by holding their opponents to 60.1 PPG. A slow tempo helps — they operate at the 319th slowest-rate in the nation. I expect this plodding pace to frustrate LSU who wants to run — and tempo showdowns tend to favor the slower team. But it not just fewer scoring opportunities as to why the Bonnies are outstanding on defense. St. Bonaventure ranks 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.5% is the 14th best in the nation. Furthermore, while the Bonnies rank 45th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they rise to 17th best in the nation in that metric when on the road. St. Bonaventure has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Defense travels — St. Bonaventure has covered the point spread in 8 straight games played on a neutral court. LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as a favorite. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon Tip-Off with the St. Bonaventure Bonnies (781) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (782). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-19-21 |
Winthrop v. Villanova -6.5 |
|
63-73 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 9:57 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (730) minus the points versus the Winthrop Eagles (729). THE SITUATION: Villanova (16-6) has lost three of their last four games with their 72-71 upset loss to Georgetown as a 6-point favorite in the Big East tournament last Thursday. Winthrop (23-1) has won seven straight games after their 80-53 win against Campbell to win the Big South conference tournament on March 7th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Winthrop is a trendy upset pick tonight by the same folks who wanted to build a shrine to Jay Wright after he won his last NCAA Tournament a couple of years ago. The Wildcats suffered a big blow with the season-ending injury to their senior point guard leader, Colin Gillespie. But the cupboard ain’t bare in Philadelphia — and Wright has had over a week to fine-tune how he will live life without Gillespie. Point guard duties go to sophomore Justin Moore who is a rising star. Villanova has been upset twice in a row — they were stunned by Providence, 54-52, in their final regular-season game before the Big East tournament. Moore was injured in that game and did not play in the second half. He is healthy again — but it contextualizes that loss. The Wildcats have a star player in Jeremiah Robinson-Earl as well. Villanova is 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games after a point spread loss. They are also 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Does Winthrop feel the pressure of expectations with this golden opportunity to topple a nouveau-blue blood without their floor general? They have covered the point spread in their last three games with victories by at least 21 points in all three games. Yet the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. Winthrop has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after winning three in a row all by double-digits including failing to cover the point spread in all three of those situates this season. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning at least seven in a row. This team plays at the 11th fastest tempo in the nation — that is a good way to blowout lesser teams, but it goes against the Giant Killer principles since more possessions allow for more opportunities for the Regression Gods to correct outlier performances (or, in the other words, more possessions helps favorites and teams with more talent). Winthrop’s strength of schedule is simply not impressive: their best win is against a Furman team that Ken Pomeroy ranks as the 92nd team in the nation. Only three of the Eagles’ opponents (representing four games) rank in Pomeroy’s top 207 teams! Winthrop has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Winthrop has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight NCAA Tournament games. Villanova has covered the point spread in 7 straight NCAA Tournament games when favored. Trust Jay Wright. 20* CBB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Villanova Wildcats (730) minus the points versus the Winthrop Eagles (729). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-19-21 |
Syracuse v. San Diego State -2.5 |
|
78-62 |
Loss |
-114 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (750) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (749). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (23-4) won the Mountain West Conference tournament with their 68-57 win against Utah State as a 2-point favorite last Saturday. Syracuse (16-9) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 72-69 loss to Virginia as a 5.5-point underdog last Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Field House in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS MINUS THE POINTS: Syracuse has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after winning two of their last three games. The Orange were 13-1 on the home court this season — but they were just 3-9 away from the Carrier Dome where they were outscored by -2.9 PPG. The deeper metrics are pretty ugly. Syracuse ranked 38th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency when at home but they drop to 58th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when on the road. The vaunted Jim Boeheim 2-3 zone is supposed to take over to perplex teams in March. But while the Orange ranked 41st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 206th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency wen away from the troubling sightlines at the Carrier Dome. Their opponents made 35.6% of their 3-pointers away from the Carrier Dome, ranking 227th nationally. Perhaps it just took some time during a pandemic for Boeheim to teach his complicated principles this season? In their last ten games, Syracuse’s opponents made 35.2% of their 3-pointers, ranking 214th nationally. San Diego State makes 37.5% of their 3-pointers, ranking 27th best in the nation. They also pull down a healthy 29.9% of their missed shots, 109th nationally, so they should be able to exploit the open space in the key which is the vulnerability of the 2-3 zone. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road after a double-digit win. And while San Diego State has only covered the point spread once in their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. The Aztecs played better on the road this season. While they ranked 19th in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home (not bad!), they rise to 10th in the nation with that metric on the road. Defense travels — they are 10th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to just 60.6 PPG on 38.8% shooting, ranking 8th, and 7th respectively. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road against non-conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court when favored by 6 points or less. Syracuse has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the San Diego State Aztecs (750) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (749). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-19-21 |
Wisconsin +1.5 v. North Carolina |
|
85-62 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (727) plus the point(s) versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (728). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (17-12) has lost four of their last five games after losing to Iowa by a 62-57 score as a 5-point underdog last Friday in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament. North Carolina (17-12) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 69-66 loss to Florida State as a 3-point underdog in the semifinals of the ACC tournament last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Mackay Arena in West Lafayette.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin only made 38.6% of their shots against the Hawkeyes which was the worst effort in their last four games. The Badgers are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games after a loss. Wisconsin has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 31 road games after losing four or five of their last six contests. The pundits were too high on this team early in the season enamored with the Badgers returning five seniors that all scored at least 8.7 PPG from a group that shared the Big Ten title. The Wisconsin starting five is older than the Chicago Bulls’ starting five. But the problem with having so many seniors is that none of them were talented enough to leave early for the NBA. There is a talent issue with the Badgers which explains why they lost nine games against teams ranked ahead of them in the AP poll. Now, these same pundits feel burned by their early love for Wisconsin and jumped off the bandwagon. But this remains a scrappy, veteran team that is battle-tested and remained loved by the laptops. Metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks the Badgers’ 12th best in the nation while ranking 13th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Wisconsin is 9-4-3 ATS in their last 16 games on a neutral court as an underdog. North Carolina tends to underachieve when playing after an extended break. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when playing with five or six days of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread when playing their second game in eight days. And while North Carolina has pulled down at least 42 rebounds in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after rebounding at least 41 boards in three straight games. The Tar Heels live off the glass — they lead the nation by pulling down 41.3% of their missed shots. The problem is that they miss too many shots. They rank 248th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 48.5% — and they make only 31.7% of their 3-pointers, ranking 270th, with Roy Williams still playing 1980s-style basketball. North Carolina averages only 5.6 made 3-pointers per game, which was 13th in the ACC. They also turn the ball over in 20.5% of their possessions, 256th nationally, which mitigates their offensive rebounding. It is telling that this is Williams’ third-worst offensive unit in his 18-year tenure with the program. While the Tar Heels rank 60th in the nation and second in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home, they fall to 82nd nationally while crashing to 12th in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road.
FINAL TAKE: This North Carolina team is very young — they rank 330th in team experience while starting two freshmen guards. The experience of this Ohio State team — who remains very good and consistently competed against teams better than the Tar Heels every week in the Big Ten — should make a big difference. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament. Wisconsin is 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament. 10* CBB Wisconsin-North Carolina CBS-TV Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (727) plus the point(s) versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (728). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-19-21 |
Liberty v. Oklahoma State -7 |
|
60-69 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 6:25 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (748) minus the points versus the Liberty Flames (747). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (20-8) had their three-game winning streak snapped in the Big 12 Championship Game in a 91-86 loss to Texas as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. Liberty (23-5) won the Big South tournament by defeating Northern Alabama by a 79-75 score as a 13-point favorite on March 7th. This game is being played on a neutral court at Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Liberty is a trendy underdog pick in this game because they are outstanding at shooting the basketball. They are 10th in the nation by making 38.8% of their shots. However, most of this good work was done at home with the friendly rims bought by Jerry Falwell, Sr. The Flames nail 44.5% of their 3-pointers at home which is the third-best mark in the nation. But they only make 35.4% of their 3-pointers on the road, ranking just 81st nationally. Liberty plays at a slow pace which is good for Giant Killers as it can trap big favorites into some anxiety-ridden moments. The problem for the Flames is they have no Plan B if their 3-pointers are not falling (expect “shoot more 3s” — they are 15th in the nation in 3-point attempt ratio). Liberty is 298th nationally by pulling down 23.2% of their missed shots, and they are 261st in forcing turnovers in just 173.% of their opponent’s possessions. This team had a chance to shoot their way into upset wins against Purdue and Missouri this season but lost by 13 and 9 points respectively. Liberty ranks 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they fall to 79th in that metric away from campus. They do play a “pack-line” defense — but too often basketball pundits assume the warrant is in the claim when making that assertion. Not all “pack-lines” are built the same, or everyone would be copying the Virginia defense (and Liberty is not Virginia). The Flames have covered the potion spread in 6 of their last 8 games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread loss. The Cowboys allowed the Longhorns to make 49.1% of their shots last Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. Furthermore, while the Cowboys rank 35th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they improve to 29th nationally when playing on the road. The Liberty backline plays a little farther out to ward off 3s — but that is not Oklahoma State’s primary focus on offense. Cade Cunningham can create his shot that drives this offense — he is the straw that stirs the drink. What Liberty player is defending the number one pick in the NBA draft? Ultimately, the Cowboys have fared well against opponents that profile like the Flames. Liberty averages 10 made 3s on 26 attempts per game. Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after 15 games into the season against teams who launch at least 21 shots from distance per game, and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games who average at least 8 made 3s per contest. And while the Liberty packline holds their opponents to just 41.0% shooting, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or lower.
FINAL TAKE: Maybe Liberty makes close to 40% of their 3s to keep this game close — or pull the upset. Oklahoma State is ranked 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while holding their opponents to making only 31.7% of their 3s. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. A good way to beat a Giant Killer is to counter them with NBA talent. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (748) minus the points versus the Liberty Flames (747). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-19-21 |
Virginia Tech v. Florida +1 |
|
70-75 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 12:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (738) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus Virginia Tech (737). THE SITUATION: Florida (14-9) enters the NCAA Tournament having lost three of their last four games after their 78-66 loss to Tennessee as a 6.5-point underdog in the semifinals of the SEC tournament last Friday. Virginia Tech (15-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 83-71 loss to North Carolina as a 0.5-point underdog in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament last Thursday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Florida played one of their worst games of the season against the Volunteers — they allowed Tennessee to make 46.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 games. Even worse, they made just 34.5% of their shots which was a season-low. The Gators have not covered the point spread in their last four games — but they have then covered the point spread in 39 of their last 62 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. This is a team that has handled adversity all season — including overcoming the loss of their best player, Keyonte Johnson, when he had that scary collapse on the court early in the year. Sophomore point guard Tre Mann developed into perhaps the Most Valuable Player in the SEC this season. This team plays great defense for head coach Mike White — they rank 36th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency fueled by them blocking 14.4% of their opponent's shots, 12th best in the nation. The ceiling is pretty high for this team — they have defeated Tennessee, West Virginia, and LSU this season. I like this spot for them to erase the bad memories of their recent slide with a victory this afternoon. This team ranks 32nd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency at both home and on the road — so this is not a team like Michigan State who played significantly better on their familiar home court. The Gators improve to 29th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road as compared to their 64th ranking in that metric when playing at home. Florida has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games on a neutral court as a favorite of three points or less to a pick ‘em (in case they move to a favorite before tip-off). I hate this situation for Virginia Tech — they have played only one game since February 27th and have just three games under their belts in the last six weeks! A two-week COVID pause before the ACC tournament is the reason that this team has been so inactive. The Hokies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after losing two of their last three games. Virginia Tech has only covered the point spread once in their last five games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Hokies were tops in ACC play in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but while they ranked 54th nationally and led the ACC in that metric when playing at home, they dropped to 77th nationally and sixth in ACC play in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. The Hokies have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games with the Total set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament. Florida has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 first-round games in the NCAA Tournament. 10* CBB Friday Afternoon Tip-Off with the Florida Gators (738) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus Virginia Tech (737). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-18-21 |
UCLA +2.5 v. Michigan State |
|
86-80 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 9:57 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (717) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (718). THE SITUATION: UCLA (17-9) has lost four games in a row after their 83-79 loss in overtime to Oregon State as a 5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament on March 11th. Michigan State (15-12) has lost two of their last three games after their 68-57 loss to Maryland as a 2-point underdog in the second round of the Big Ten tournament on March 11th. This play-in game for the 11-seed in the west region. This game is being played on a neutral court at Mackay Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: UCLA did not have their best player, Johnny Juzang, in the regular-season finale against USC, and he was only able to play 24 minutes against the Beavers in that overtime loss in the Pac-12 tournament. With an additional seven days off since that game, Juzang should be in better condition this game. The Bruins are on a four-game losing streak, but all four of their losses were to NCAA Tournament teams with the Trojans winning on a last-second shot (even without Juzang) and Oregon State forced overtime with a buzzer-beater in regulation. The loss to the Beavers does not look as bad now that they won the Pac-12 tournament either. UCLA has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after losing at least three games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. The Bruins only made 42.9% of their shots against Oregon State which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. Despite that effort and not having Juzang in the USC loss, UCLA is still making 50% of their shots in their last five games. Michigan State really missed Cassius Winston from last year. They lack a quality point guard this season — and they do not have a player that can create his own shot. Head coach Tom Izzo eventually moved Rocket Watts away from point guard responsibilities — but he only made 29.9% of his shots in Big Ten play with a 23.1% clip from behind the arc so the problems with this team were deeper than Watts playing out of position. UCLA forces their opponents to play at the 318th longest mark per possession which is not a good sign for Sparty that struggles to create shots. Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. The Spartans pulled off their upset wins against Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio State on their home court. Michigan State ranked 35th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home at the Breslin Center where they were 12-3. But the Spartans are 3-9 on the road where they are outscored by -10.8 PPG. They plummet to ranking 117th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road — and they were 13th in the Big Ten in that metric away from home. Sparty also ranked 13th in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road in Big Ten play. They rank 71st in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home but just 151st in that metric on the road. They rank 27th in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home but fall to 99th on the road. This is not a good team away from home which is a testament to the inexperience Izzo brought back this season. That is not a good sign for Izzo when considering his teams have not covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 NCAA Tournament games. Michigan State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when favored. UCLA has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. 10* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the UCLA Bruins (717) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (718). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-18-21 |
Norfolk State +3.5 v. Appalachian State |
Top |
54-53 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Norfolk State Spartans (711) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (712). THE SITUATION: Norfolk State (16-7) has won six straight games after winning the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference tournament with their 71-63 victory against Morgan State as a 2.5-point favorite on March 13th. Appalachian State (17-11) has won four in a row after taking the Sun Belt conference tournament title with their 80-73 victory against Georgia State as a 7-point underdog on March 8th. This play-in game in the First Four earns the 16th seed in the west region. This game is being played on a neutral court at Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE NORFOLK STATE PLUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State found lightning in a bottle in the Sun Belt tournament with three straight upset victories against Texas State, Coastal Carolina, and then the Panthers to claim the title. They limped into the conference tournament with six losses in their previous seven games. I expect an emotional letdown for the Mountaineers now. They have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games on the road after an upset victory against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with at least seven days between games. Appalachian ranks 217th in the nation in the advanced metrics I rely on — yet in their most recent ten games, they fall to 236th during that span. They only made 43.6% of their shots against Georgia State but that was still tied for the best shooting effort in their last six contests. The Mountaineers struggle to score baskets. They are making just 37.8% of their shots in their last five games. They rank 227th nationally with a 3-point shooting percentage of 32.6% while ranking 283rd in the nation by making just 46.7% of their shots inside the arc. Their shooting struggles intensify when playing away from home where they make just 39.3% of their shots. And while they rank 192nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they fall to 241st in the nation in that metric when playing on the road. Appalachian State played better at home this season where they ranked 193rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they fall to 239th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. Norfolk State ranks 208th in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and while they rank 252nd when playing at home, they improve to 182nd nationally when playing on the road. They only made 42.4% of their shots in winning the MEAC Championship Game which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. But they should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Spartans are still making 46.6% of their shots in their last five games. This is a good shooting team that ranks 32nd in the nation by making 37.4% of their 3-pointers. This is also a team this improving on the other end of the court. They have held their last five opponents to 37.6% shooting which resulted in only 58.4 PPG — and none of those opponents scored more than 65 points. Norfolk State has then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. They are led by a do-it-all senior point guard in Devante Carter who scores 15.5 PPG while adding 5.3 RPG and 4.0 APG. The Spartans have balanced scoring with six players scoring at least 7.6 PPG. Overall, this team has a nice pedigree to advance (and earn the right to lose to Gonzaga on Saturday).
FINAL TAKE: Norfolk State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on a neutral court. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Four Game of the Year with the Norfolk State Spartans (711) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-18-21 |
Mt. St. Mary's v. Texas Southern +1.5 |
|
52-60 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 5:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Texas Southern Tigers (716) plus the point(s) versus Mount St. Mary’s (715). THE SITUATION: Texas Southern (16-8) won the Southwest Athletic Conference tournament with their 80-61 upset win against Prairie View A&M as a 1.5-point underdog on March 13th. Mount St. Mary’s (12-10) has won four in a row after winning the Northeast Conference tournament with their 73-68 upset win at Bryant on March 9th. This play-in game for a 16th seed is being played on a neutral court at Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: I leaned to Texas Southern — but with the steam all on Mount St. Mary’s which was pushed the oddsmakers to install them as a small favorite this afternoon, the value is now on the Tigers. The conventional wisdom is that in this battle of styles, the Mountaineers will coax Texas Southern into a slower-pace. Maybe … but I still expect the Tigers to outscore Mount St. Mary’s even in a lower-scoring game. Texas Southern is long and fast — and their athleticism could simply overwhelm the Mountaineers. They will have the best player on the court in Michael Weathers. The former Oklahoma State transfer is averaging 16.5 PPG with 5.2 RPG, 3.5 APG, and 2.2 steals-per-game. The Tigers are battle-tested from a non-conference schedule that included Oklahoma State, St. Mary’s, Auburn, and BYU. They have won nine straight games as well as 14 of their last 15. Texas Southern is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win. They have scored at least 80 points in two straight games and in four of their last five games — and they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 80 points in two straight games. Texas Southern ranks 227th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they rise to 175th in that metric when playing on the road. Mount St. Mary’s ranks 212th in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they fall to 281st when on the road. The Mountaineers play elite defense with a frontline that boasts three players at 6’9. They rank 15th nationally with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.5%. Duly noted. But while they have an overall opponent’s field goal percentage of 40.5%, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against opponents who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 42% from the field. Mount St. Mary's struggles to score baskets. While they are 239th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 281st nationally when playing on the road. Even if this is a low-scoring game, the Mountaineers will need to score. Texas Southern uses their athleticism to help them make 45% of their shots — and Mount St. Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who make at least 45% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: A weakness of Texas Southern is that they can be sloppy with the basketball — they turn the ball over in 21.5% of their possessions, ranking 295th nationally. Yet Mount St. Mary’s does not try to force turnovers as they rank 308th in the nation with a defensive turnover rate of 16.4%. The Mountaineers only forced 8 turnovers against Bryant — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not forcing more than 8 turnovers in their last game. Texas Southern is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games on a neutral court. 10* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Texas Southern Tigers (716) plus the point(s) versus the Mount St. Mary’s (715). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-17-21 |
Western Kentucky +2 v. St. Mary's |
Top |
69-67 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (707) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (708) in the first round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (20-7) had their three-game winning streak snapped in the Conference USA Championship Game in a 61-57 upset loss to North Texas as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Saint Mary’s (14-9) last played on March 8th when they lost to Gonzaga by a 78-55 score as an 18.5-point underdog in the West Coast Conference tournament semifinals. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Comerica Center in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky took the Mean Green to overtime despite making only 34.0% of their shots in what was a season-low. And while they held North Texas to just 39.3% shooting, that was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. Head coach Rick Stansbury’s team should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after an upset loss to a Conference USA rival. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not scoring more than 60 points in their last game. The Hilltoppers are led by an NBA prospect in junior Charles Bassey who scores 17.7 PPG and pulls down 11.5 RPG. They will be without senior Carson Williams who is out for this game due to personal reasons — but the senior was only scoring 7.5 PPG, and Stansbury’s team is blessed with depth. Western Kentucky beat Alabama earlier in the season so the potential is high for this team. They have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games as an underdog. Saint Mary’s may have more trouble getting up for this game as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Gaels made only 36.1% of their shots against the Bulldogs -- but they have not shot better than 39.5% of their shots in five straight games. Saint Mary’s replaced their top three scorers from last season — and they simply were not a good shooting team this year. After ranking 4th in the nation by nailing 38.7% of their shots from behind the arc last year, the Gaels plummeted to 328th nationally by making only 29.3% of their 3-pointers. The problem for Randy Bennett is that the Hilltoppers interior play is the strength of their defense with Bassey patrolling the paint. Western Kentucky limited their opponents to just 45.8% shooting inside the arc, 38th best nationally. As it is, Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after not shooting better than 40% in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after not shooting better than 40% in four straight contests. To compound matters, the Gaels played their best when at home where they were 9-3 and ranked 40th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. Saint Mary’s had a losing 5-6 record away from home while dropping to ranking 115th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency. Their offensive numbers tell the story: while ranking 128th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they are 269th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. The Gaels lack quality wins — their highest-profile win was against Colorado State who is in the NIT. They had troubling losses to Pepperdine and Santa Clara. The oddsmakers are relying on statistical projection models that are vulnerable because of the lack of a large sample size of non-conference play that can help accurately gauge relative conference strengths. I suspect Saint Mary’s gets exposed in this game as being just not very good. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better.
FINAL TAKE: Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games played in the postseason. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games as an underdog playing on a neutral court. 25* CBB NIT First Round Game of the Year with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (707) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-14-21 |
Ohio State +6 v. Illinois |
Top |
88-91 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (657) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (658) in the championship game in the Big Ten tournament. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (21-8) reached the finals of this tournament with their 68-67 upset win against Michigan as a 5-point underdog yesterday. Illinois (22-6) has won five in a row with their 82-71 win against Iowa as a 3-point favorite yesterday. The Big Ten tournament is being played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Ohio State won yesterday despite making only 35.1% of their shots which was the lowest mark in their last three games and their second-lowest field goal percentage in their last 14 games. The Buckeyes are making 46.2% of their shots away from home — and they rank second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Chris Holtmann’s team can score. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Buckeyes have also covered the pints spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing their third game in five days. This is a veteran, battle-tested team — they have won 30 of their last 41 games with 32 of those games in the rugged Big Ten over the last two seasons. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. Additionally, Ohio State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court when getting up to 6 points. Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 80 points in a victory against a Big Ten opponent in their last game. And while the Illini raced out to a 45-37 halftime lead yesterday, they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games on the road after scoring at least 45 points in the first half of their last game. Illinois has covered the point spread in six straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. Furthermore, the Illini has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court with the number in the 145 to 149.5 point range. And in their last 25 games played on a neutral court as a favorite laying 3.5 to 6 points, Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of these games. The Illini ranks 10th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home — but they fall to 26th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. This team also makes only 68.8% of their free throws, ranking 247th nationally. If Illinois is leading in this game, the Buckeyes may still be able to scratch out a point spread cover by playing the fouling game. The Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 tournament championship games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season showdowns with Ohio State winning in Champagne by an 87-81 score on January 16th before getting upset in Columbus on March 6th by a 73-68 score as a 2.5-point favorite. The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 61 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (657) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (658). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-13-21 |
Cal-Irvine v. UC-Santa Barbara -2.5 |
Top |
63-79 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (634) minus the points versus the UC-Irvine Anteaters (633) in the championship game of the Big West tournament. THE SITUATION: UC-Santa Barbara (20-4) has won four games in a row with their 71-55 win against Cal-Davis as a 10.5-point favorite yesterday. UC-Irvine (17-8) has won six in a row after their 78-61 win against UC-Riverside as a 1.5-point favorite last night. The Big West tournament is being played in the Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GAUCHOS MINUS THE POINTS: UC-Santa Barbara won last night despite making only 42.6% of their shots which was tied for their lowest mark in their last four games. The Gauchos are still making 47.3% of their shots on the road which is generating 75.1 PPG — and they are outscoring their opponents away from home by +6.9 PPG. UC-Santa Barbara’s offense has executed much better when playing away from home. While the Gauchos rank 136th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they improve to 67th in offensive efficiency when playing on the road. UC-Santa Barbara is 37th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 53.4% — and they are also 14th nationally in free throw rate. The Gauchos should feed off their momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, UC-Santa Barbara has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after winning at least two in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road after winning at least three in a row. And in their last 11 games after winning at least four in a row, head coach Joe Pasternack’s teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games. The Gauchos did not commit one turnover last night either — and they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after not turning the ball over in their previous game. Additionally, UC-Santa Barbara has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. UC-Irvine has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win against a conference opponent. The Anteaters are also 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread win. UC-Irvine has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two in a row against conference opponents. And while the Anteaters have covered the point spread in twice of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after covering two of their last three games. UC-Irvine made 46% of their shots last night in what was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But this team makes only 41.1% of their shots on the road which generates only 66.5 PPG. While the Anteaters rank 110th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they plummet to a 144th ranking in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. They have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119th nationally when playing at home — they are 272nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road. Overall, UC-Irvine ranks 284th nationally with an effective field goal percentage of 47.3%. The Anteaters’ strength is their defense — they have held their last four opponents to no better than 37.4% shooting. But UC-Irvine has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing their last four opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field.
FINAL TAKE: UC-Irvine swept the two regular-season meetings between these two teams — but both of those games were played on their home court in December. UC-Santa Barbara has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with double-revenge. 25* CBB Big West Game of the Year with the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (634) minus the points versus the UC-Irvine Anteaters (633). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-13-21 |
Iona -8 v. Fairfield |
Top |
60-51 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iona Gaels (613) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (614) in the championship game of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Iona (11-5) won their fifth game in a row with their 70-64 win against Niagara as a 6-point favorite yesterday. Fairfield (10-16) pulled off their fourth straight upset yesterday in a 52-47 upset victory against St. Peter’s as a 6-point favorite. The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament is being played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GAELS MINUS THE POINTS: Fairfield upset Manhattan twice in a row before dispatching Monmouth before the St. Peter’s yesterday. Not exactly a Murderer’s Row — St. Peter’s is ranked 220 by metrics guru Ken Pomeroy while he has Monmouth 228 and Manhattan at 316. Iona is a significant step up in competition — Pomeroy ranks them 185th with some of the other power rankings I use placing them in the 140s. Look for the Stags’ bubble to burst. They are just 9-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 50 points. The Peacocks are a great defensive team — but these Gaels are in another class when it comes to the offense so this will be a much harder test on the Stags’ defensive play this afternoon. As it is, Fairfield ranks 273rd nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which is worse than their 258th ranking in that metric when playing at home. The Stags are going to struggle to keep up as they only make 39.8% of their shots on the road which is generating just 60.5 PPG. Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 55 points. And in their last 5 games when playing their third game in five days, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests. Iona leads the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are averaging 75.2 PPG in their last five games. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning three in a row after conference rivals. The Gaels have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing their second game in three days. Iona has been more effective away from home. While they rank 175th in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they rise to 122nd nationally in that metric on the road. They rank 41st nationally and tops in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They have held their last five opponents to just 36.3% shooting which is resulting in only 63.0 PPG. While they are outscoring their opponents by +6.1 PPG this season, they have outscored their last five opponents by +12.2 PPG during their winning streak. Iona is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. They are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Iona will also have a chip on their shoulder to avenge a 67-52 upset loss at home to Fairfield on December 12th as a 7.5-point underdog. The Gaels ahem covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games when avenging an upset loss as a favorite of at least 7 points. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Iona Gaels (613) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (614). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-13-21 |
Iowa +3.5 v. Illinois |
|
71-82 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (603) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (604) in the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament. THE SITUATION: Iowa (21-7) has won four straight games as well as eight of their last nine with their 62-57 win against Wisconsin as a 5-point favorite yesterday. Illinois (21-6) has won four in a row as well with their 90-68 victory against Rutgers as an 8.5-point underdog yesterday. The Big Ten tournament is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Illinois had a laugher yesterday in their 22-point win against the Scarlet Knights. They made 52.5% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. But the Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while they raced out to a 47-28 halftime lead, Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 45 points in the first half of their last game. The Fighting Illini have covered the point spread in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 42 of their last 67 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. Illinois has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. Furthermore, the Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games played on a neutral court as a favorite laying 3.5 to 6 points. Iowa survived the Badgers yesterday despite making only 40.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. They made only 2 of their 20 shots from behind the arc yesterday — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not shooting better than 20% from 3-point range. Iowa ranks 65th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they rank eighth nationally in that metric over their last ten games in demonstrating a dramatic improvement in play on that end of the court. Iowa is 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: The Hawkeyes will be looking to avenge an 80-75 loss to Illinois on January 29th. Expect a close game with Iowa in a position to pull the upset. 10* CBB Iowa-Illinois CBS-TV Special with the Iowa Hawkeyes (603) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (604). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-12-21 |
New Mexico State v. Utah Valley +6.5 |
Top |
78-62 |
Loss |
-103 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Utah Valley State Wolverines (866) plus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (865) in the Semifinals of the Western Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Utah Valley State (10-10) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 74-64 loss at Grand Canyon as a 7-point underdog. New Mexico State (11-7) won their fourth straight game as well as their sixth of their last seven in a 77-61 victory against Utah Rio Grande Valley last night as a 12-point favorite. The WAC tournament is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: Utah Valley State is rested and motivated by revenge tonight. In their last loss to Grand Canyon last week, they allowed the Antelopes to make 50% of their shots in the worst defensive effort in their last six games. Utah Valley State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. The Wolverines have also covered the points spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Utah Valley State tends to play better on the road where they rank 169th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency as opposed to their 198th ranking when playing at home. The Wolverines are just 271st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — but they climb to 110th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when on the road. It is as if head coach Mark Madsen has constructed his team to be the slayers of this New Mexico State team that has been the perennial powerhouse in the WAC. The Aggies are typically one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation — this season, they rank 11th in the nation by rebounding 36.0% of their missed shots. But the Wolverines limit their opponents to rebounding only 23.9% of their missed shots, 33rd in the nation. Utah Valley also draws tons of fouls — they are third nationally in free throw rate. New Mexico State is 202nd in the nation in defensive free throw rate. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And while they make a healthy 47.5% of their shots, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams who make at least 45% of their shots. New Mexico State made 52% of their shots last night which was the highest field goal percentage in their last five games. But the Aggies are still only making 40.7% of their shots on the road — so the Regression Gods may be making an appearance tonight. New Mexico State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. The Aggies have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against a WAC foe by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a win by at least 15 points. New Mexico State has won their last four games by double-digits — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning four in a row by 10 or more points. The Aggies have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season games with the Wolverines winning the first game on February 19th by a 69-66 score as a 9-point underdog before losing to the New Mexico State, 67-60, on February 20th. Look for this third and final meeting to be a close game where having the points will be very valuable. 25* CBB WAC Game of the Year is on the Utah Valley State Wolverines (866) plus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (865). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-12-21 |
North Carolina v. Florida State -2 |
Top |
66-69 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (854) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (853) in the Semifinals of the ACC Tournament. THE SITUATION: Florida State (15-5) advanced in their quarterfinals matchup with Duke when the Blue Devils pulled out of the tournament after a positive COVID test yesterday. North Carolina (18-9) has won three in a row after their 81-73 win against Virginia Tech as a -0.5-point favorite yesterday. The ACC tournament is being played at the Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES MINUS THE POINTS: Florida State not only dodged Duke yesterday but they gained a situational edge with an extra day of rest against a Tar Heels’ team playing their third game in three days. Leonard Hamilton may very well be the most underrated head coach in the country (all sports) -- and his teams play with energy and a fast pace. Look for the Seminoles to pull away late in this game — they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when playing just their second game in eight days. Florida State will be anxious to get the back taste out of their mouth when they last played on Saturday when they were upset at Notre Dame by an 83-73 score as a 5.5-point favorite in a result that cost them the top seed in this tournament. The Seminoles allowed the Irish to make 42.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. Florida State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. The Seminoles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games under Hamilton. North Carolina may be due for a letdown after their nice recent run. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after winning two in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after winning three in a row. And while North Carolina has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering four of their last five. Roy Williams’ team leads the nation in offensive rebounding — and they are at their best when controlling the glass. They have outrebounded their two opponents in the ACC Tournament by 11 and 23 boards. But the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after outrebounding their last two opponents by at least rebounds. Florida State pounds the offensive glass as well — they rank 16th in the nation in offensive rebounding rate. North Carolina ranks third in the ACC and 60th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they drop to 12th in the ACC and 76th nationally when playing on the road. This is not a good shooting team — they only make 31.6% of their shots from behind the arc which is 273rd in the nation. They rely on shots inside the arc where they make 49.5% of their 2-point attempts — but that is only 101st in the nation. The Seminoles play tough interior defense — they rank 11th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 44.2% shooting inside the arc. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on a neutral court as an underdog getting up to 3 points. And while Florida State averages 79.6 PPG, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who score at least 77 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season encounters — but North Carolina won the last battle in a 78-70 upset win in Chapel Hill as a 2-point dog on February 27th. Florida State has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Year with the Florida State Seminoles (854) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (853). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-12-21 |
Maryland +8.5 v. Michigan |
|
66-79 |
Loss |
-101 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Maryland Terrapins (811) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (812) in the Quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament. THE SITUATION: Maryland (16-12) looks to build off their 68-57 win against Michigan State yesterday as a 2-point favorite. Michigan (19-3) hopes to bounce-back from a 70-64 loss at Michigan State as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Big Ten tournament is being played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TERRAPINS PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan will likely be without senior guard Eli Brooks for at least this game after be sprained his ankle on Sunday. Losing Brooks is devastating for this team. Not only is one of the top-two defenders on this team, but he is glue for the offense with his steady hand on the floor. Two of the Wolverines’ three losses (Michigan State and Minnesota) occurred with Brooks on the sidelines for most or all of the game — and that is not a coincidence. Without Brooks, head coach Juwan Howard has to use Zeb Jackson for up to 10 minutes — and the freshman is simply not ready for prime-time action. Jackson is a huge drop-off on defense and he is not as comfortable executing the complex offense with NBA principles that Howard has brought to his alma mater. Howard is a fantastic coach — but Jackson puts a limit on what he can do. Maryland defeated Sparty yesterday despite making only 38.2% of their shots which was the lowest mark in their last nine games. The Spartans made 41.5% of their shots which was actually the Terrapins’ worst defensive effort in their last five games. I discussed yesterday about how good Maryland plays defense on the road. The Terrapins have been on my radar ever since I realized how good of defense they are playing away from home (for our Big Ten Total of the Year last Wednesday). While they rank 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after yesterday, they rise to 5th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. Wow — even better than yesterday! Maryland has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing their second game in three days. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on a neutral court as an underdog. And while the Wolverines make 38.6% of their 3-pointers, the Terrapins have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games against teams making at least 37% of their 3-point attempts.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan swept the two meetings between these teams in the regular season after crushing Maryland on January 19th by an 87-63 score as a 13.5-point favorite. The Terrapins have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road when avenging a loss of 20 or more points. Without Brooks, this shapes up to be a nervy opening game for Michigan who could feel the pressure of losing their expected number one seed in the Big Dance next week. 10* CBB Friday Morning Tip-Off with the Maryland Terrapins (811) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-11-21 |
Minnesota v. Ohio State -10.5 |
|
75-79 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (674) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (673) in the second round of the Big Ten tournament. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (18-8) has lost four games in a row after their 73-68 upset loss to Illinois as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Minnesota (14-14) snapped a seven-game losing streak yesterday in a 51-46 upset win against Northwestern as a 1-point underdog. The Big Ten tournament is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota played one of their best games of the season yesterday. They held the Wildcats to just 31.0% shooting which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 18 games. And while they made only 36.7% of their shots, that was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But the Golden Gophers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. And while that game flew Under the 139 point total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after a game that finished Under the Total. Minnesota is much better when playing at home where they rank 37th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency. They plummet to 110th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. The Golden Gophers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against Big Ten opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games played on a neutral court as an underdog. Minnesota has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a dog. Ohio State should bounce-back as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. The Buckeyes only made 40% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 11 games — and the 51.9% shooting they surrendered to the Illini was the worst defensive effort in their last three contests. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral court as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes will be looking to avenge a 77-60 loss at Minnesota on January 3rd — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. 20* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Ohio State Buckeyes (674) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (673). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-11-21 |
Mississippi State +4 v. Kentucky |
|
74-73 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (701) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (702) in the second round of the SEC tournament. THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (14-13) has lost two of their last three games with their 78-71 loss at Auburn as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. Kentucky (9-15) has won four of their last six games with their 92-64 blowout win against South Carolina as an 11.5-point favorite on Saturday. The SEC tournament is being played at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Bettors are on Kentucky this morning with the expectation that John Calipari’s team will make a Hail Mary run in this tournament since that is their only chance to make the Big Dance next week. They made 49.3% of their shots on Saturday in what was the best shooting effort in their last 14 games. They also held the Gamecocks to 38.2% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last three games. But the personality of this team has been consistent inconsistency — they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a point spread win. They are also just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by 20 or more points. Kentucky has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. This Wildcats team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. Mississippi State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they are 42-20-1 ATS in their last 63 games after a straight-up loss. The Bulldogs are outstanding on the offensive glass — they rank 12th in the nation by pulling down 35.7% of their missed shots. This ability should keep them in this game as Kentucky allows their opponents to pull down 30.2% of their missed shots, ranking 261st in the nation. Rebounding travels — and so does defense. Mississippi State is 26th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. These attributes explain why the Bulldogs play so well away from home. While the Bulldogs rank 73rd in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home, they rise to 55th in the nation in that metric when playing on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Kentucky won the first meeting between these two teams by a 78-73 score on January 2nd — but Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 49 of the last 79 games when avenging a same-season loss. 10* CBB Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (701) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-11-21 |
Michigan State v. Maryland +1 |
|
57-68 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Maryland Terrapins (672) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Michigan State Spartans (671) in the Big Ten tournament. THE SITUATION: Maryland (15-12) looks to bounce-back from a 66-61 upset loss at home to Penn State as a 6-point favorite on Monday. Michigan State (15-11) has won five of their last seven games after their 70-64 upset victory against Michigan as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TERRAPINS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Maryland had been riding a five-game winning streak before getting upset against Northwestern and then the Nittany Lions. The Terrapins have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after suffering two straight upset losses — and they have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 71 games on the road after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games, Maryland has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two in a row in the Big Ten. Michigan State made 44.4% of their shots against the Wolverines which is both not great but yet their best shooting effort in their last four games. But the Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win. Furthermore, the Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by 6 points or less.
FINAL TAKE: Maryland has been on my radar ever since I realized how good of defense they are playing away from home (for our Big Ten Total of the Year last Wednesday). While they rank 31st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they rise to 10th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games on the road games against teams with a winning record. Sparty thinks they are in the Big Dance — but a loss in this one may burst their bubble and they will be feeling that pressure. 20* CBB Thursday Morning Tip Off with the Maryland Terrapins (672) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Michigan State Spartans (671). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-10-21 |
Middle Tennessee v. North Texas -15.5 |
|
56-76 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (648) minus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (647) in the second round of the Conference USA tournament. THE SITUATION: North Texas (13-9) enters the Conference USA Tournament on a three-game losing streak after getting upset at home against UAB as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. Middle Tennessee (5-17) has lost six games in a row after their 63-54 loss at FAU as a 10-point underdog on March 5th. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE NORTH TEXAS MINUS THE POINTS: North Texas was upset twice at home over the weekend against the Blazers last weekend. They should play better tonight to take advantage of the opportunity to get the bad taste of their mouths from last week. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points. The Mean Green rank 82nd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but while they are only 89th in that metric when playing at home, they improve to 77th nationally when playing away from home. North Texas is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a losing record. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games with the Total set in the 120s. Middle Tennessee shot only 29.3% from the field last Friday — but that is not likely an outlier since that is exactly what they shot in their previous game. The Blue Raiders did hold the Owls to 45.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six contests. This is Middle Tennessee’s third game since last Thursday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing their third game in a week. The Blue Raiders rank 277th in the Adjusted Net Efficiency — but while they improve to 230th when playing at home, they fall to 323rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when play on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 16 games when playing on a neutral court. This is a team going nowhere who also lost their leading scorer, Dontrell Shuler, who left the program last month.
FINAL TAKE: I tend to shy away from double-digit point spread since the end game that is detached from the actual winner and loser can wreak havoc with the point spread. But I take solace in the fact for this situation that the Blue Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games as a double-digit underdog — and the Mean Green have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games as a double-digit favorite including all four games this season. 10* CBB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the North Texas Mean Green (648) minus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (647). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-09-21 |
Manhattan -2.5 v. Fairfield |
|
58-59 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Manhattan Jaspers (815) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (816) in the opening round of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Manhattan (7-12) enters the conference tournament having lost three of four after their 85-74 upset loss at home to these Stags as a 4-point favorite on Friday. Fairfield (7-16) has won two of their last three games. The MAAC tournament is being played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JASPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Manhattan allowed the Stags to make 49.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games. Manhattan is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after an upset loss. The Jaspers rank 287th in Adjusted Net Efficiency overall this season — but they fall to 308th in that metric when playing on their home court. Manhattan fares better on the road where they rise to a 259th ranking in Adjusted Net Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on a neutral court when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 opening games in a tournament. Fairfield enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last six games with that effort on Friday. But the Stags make only 39.5% of their shots away from home which generates only 59.7 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a double-digit victory. Fairfield has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games including five of their seven games after an upset win this season. The Stags are also just 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games after a win while failing to cover the point spread in five of their last six games after a victory this season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40%.
FINAL TAKE: Manhattan has covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 opportunities to avenge a loss at home this season. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Manhattan Jaspers (815) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (816). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-07-21 |
Drexel -4.5 v. College of Charleston |
Top |
80-75 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Drexel Dragons (757) minus the points versus the College of Charleston Cougars (758) in the Quarterfinals of the Colonial Athletic Association tournament. THE SITUATION: Drexel (9-7) looks to build off the momentum of their 84-78 upset win at James Madison as a 1.5-point underdog back on February 26th. Charleston (9-9) takes to the court again for the first time since February 20th when they defeated Columbus State in a non-boarded game, 86-83. This game is being played at the Atlantic Union Bank Center in Harrisburg, Virginia.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DUKES MINUS THE POINTS: Drexel should be comfortable playing on this court with it being the home of James Madison who they just defeated in this building. While the Dragons made 49.1% of their shots in that game, that was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. Drexel has the top Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the CAA — and they rank 28th in the nation by making 54.6% of their shots inside the arc. Defense travels — but so does making shots closer to the basket. The Dragons are a more effective team when playing on the road. While they rank 141st in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they fall to 192nd nationally when playing on their home court. But when Drexel is playing on neutral courts or the opposing team’s court, they rise to 123rd nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency. The Dragons have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court. They also have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games when favored. Drexel also allowed the Dukes to make 50.9% of their shots in their last game which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven contests — so they should play better on that end of the court. Charleston has won four of their last five games — but they are likely to be rusty having not played in more than two weeks. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with more than seven days between games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home where they scored at least 85 points, so any potential momentum is likely a moot point. COVID has it the Colonial Athletic Association hard would plenty of games canceled — that is why the team added their glorified scrimmage with Columbus State. The most recent Division One opponent they have faced was Elon back on February 14th — and they were upset by 11 points as an 8-point favorite. Incredibly, this is just their third game away from home in conference action this season. The Cougars rank 215th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency but fall to 231st in that metric when playing away from home. They are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral court — and they are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games on a neutral court as an underdog. Expectations were pretty high for this season entering the season — but they lost their best player, Brevin Galloway, to a season-ending leg injury in December. Charleston has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The cherry on top for this situation is that Drexel will be motivated by double-revenge. They lost twice on the road to the Cougars this season in early-January by a combined six points with the last meeting being on January 10th in a 73-68 upset loss as a 2-point favorite. The Dragons have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Game of the Year with the Drexel Dragons (757) minus the points versus the College of Charleston Cougars (758). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-21 |
Butler v. Creighton -12 |
|
73-93 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Creighton Bluejays (644) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (643). THE SITUATION: Creighton (17-7) lost their second-straight game on Wednesday in a 72-60 loss at Villanova. Butler (9-13) won their second-straight game with their 73-61 upset victory against Villanova last Sunday as a 12.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUEJAYS: Creighton made only 38.7% of their shots against the Wildcats in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 15 games. Their loss to Villanova came after an upset loss at Xavier last Saturday. The Bluejays have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 70 games after losing two in a row. The program is also dealing with the Greg McDermott controversy regarding his comments after the loss against the Musketeers — he has been suspended by the team and will not be on the sidelines. Creighton is a better team when playing at home. While they rank 21st in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they improve to 15th nationally when measuring play on home courts. They are outscoring their guests by +14.5 PPG — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when laying 6.5 to 12 points. The Bluejays have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games against teams with a losing record. Butler made 50% of their shots against the Wildcats in the best shooting effort in their last ten games. They also held Villanova to just 36.9% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last ten games. Yet the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two in a row against conference opponents. Butler is a much better team when playing at home. They rank 108th in Adjusted Net Efficiency overall with 107th mark in that metric when playing at home. But Butler falls to 132nd nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Creighton will want to avenge a 70-66 upset loss at Butler on January 16th — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. 10* CBB Butler-Creighton Fox-TV Special with the Creighton Bluejays (644) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (643). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-21 |
Old Dominion v. Western Kentucky -7 |
Top |
57-60 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (650) minus the points versus the Old Dominion Monarchs (649). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (17-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped last night in a 71-69 upset loss to the Monarchs as a 7-point favorite. Old Dominion (15-6) has won four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky made only 39.6% of their shots last night in what was the worst shooting effort in their last ten games. But they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games after a loss to a conference rival. Additionally, Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a narrow loss by 6 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. They should play better in this one — they are still averaging a 48.3% field goal percentage along with an opponent’s field goal mark of 40.9% in their last five games even after last night. They dropped to 10-2 at home but they are outscoring their visitors by +10.7 PPG. The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite. Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win against a Conference USA foe where they were an underdog getting at least 6 points. Despite pulling the upset on the road last night, the Monarchs are not as good on the road as they are at home. Old Dominion ranks 156th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and they improve to 139th when playing on their home court. But the Monarchs fall to 189th in the nation when playing on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog — and they are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. Furthermore, Old Dominion is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a narrow loss by three points or less. 25* CBB Conference USA Game of the Year with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (650) minus the points versus the Old Dominion Monarchs (649). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-21 |
Illinois v. Ohio State -2 |
|
73-68 |
Loss |
-105 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (636) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (635). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (18-7) has lost three straight games after their 73-57 loss at home to Iowa on February 28th as a 2-point favorite. Illinois (19-6) has won three in a row with their 76-53 upset victory against Michigan on Tuesday as an 8.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State should bounce-back — they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss a home — and they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread loss. The Buckeyes may have lost at home to the Hawkeyes but they have still covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Illinois experienced their best win of the season on Tuesday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last six games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They are still without their best player and senior point guard leader in Ayo Dosunmu — they will miss his 21.0 PPG along with his 6.3 Rebounds-Per-Game and 5.3 Assists-Per-Game in this one. The Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 road games as an underdog of up to three points.
FINAL TAKE: Illinois will be motivated to avenge an 87-81 upset loss to the Buckeyes on January 16th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 85 points. 10* CBB Illinois-Ohio State ESPN Special with the Ohio State Buckeyes (636) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (635). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-21 |
Alabama v. Georgia +7.5 |
|
89-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (628) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (627). THE SITUATION: Georgia (14-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 91-70 upset loss at home to South Carolina as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. Alabama (20-6) has won three straight and six of their last seven with their 70-58 win against Auburn as a 10.5-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia should respond with a big effort after their embarrassing 21-point loss to the Gamecocks. The Bulldogs made only 36.7% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last nine games — and they allowed South Carolina to hit 53.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. Georgia has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 27 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. They stay at home where they are 12-4 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. Additionally, Georgia has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Alabama held the Tigers to just 39.6% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last seven games. And while they only made 39.7% of their shots, that was the best shooting mark in their last three contests. The Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Alabama has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored. Additionally, the Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia will be looking to avenge a 115-82 loss in Tuscaloosa on February 13th as an 11.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* CBB Alabama-Georgia CBS-TV Special with the Georgia Bulldogs (628) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (627). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-05-21 |
Colorado State v. Nevada -1 |
|
82-85 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (858) minus the point spread versus the Colorado State Rams (857). THE SITUATION: Nevada (14-9) has lost two straight games after their 87-66 loss at Utah State as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday. Colorado State (17-4) has won five straight games after their 87-73 win against New Mexico as a 19-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK MINUS THE POINTS: Nevada should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss. The Wolf Pack have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two in a row. Nevada gave up 75 and 87 points in their two losses at Utah State last week. The Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 75 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after losing two of their last three games. They return home where they are 8-2 this season with an average winning margin of +8.4 PPG. Nevada has covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against a team with a winning percentage of 60% or better on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to 6 points. Colorado State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning at least four in a row — and they have failed to cover the potion spread in 19 of their last 27 games on the road after winning at least five games in a row. They go back on the road where they are not as good as they are at home. The Rams rank 76th in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and they improve to 62nd when playing at home. But Colorado State falls to 113th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. This is the Rams’ first road game since February 6th after playing their last three games at home — and they are just 7-20-3 ATS in the last 30 road games after playing at least three straight games at home.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado State can not afford to lose this game with them on the NCAA Tournament bubble — and that pressure may not help them tonight. Nevada has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. The Wolf Pack have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored. 10* CBB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Nevada Wolf Pack (858) minus the point spread versus the Colorado State Rams (857). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-05-21 |
Ball State v. Toledo -9 |
Top |
70-89 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (828) minus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (827). THE SITUATION: Toledo (19-7) looks to bounce back from an 81-79 upset loss at Central Michigan as a 17-point favorite on Tuesday. Ball State (10-11) won their third straight game on Tuesday with their 100-65 blowout win against Eastern Michigan as an 8-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS MINUS THE POINTS: Toledo made only 43.9% of their shots against the Chippewas which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. They also allowed Central Michigan to make 47.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent field goal percentage in their last four contests. The Rockets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they are 11-1 with an average winning margin of +15.7 PPG. They make 48.0% of their shots at home which is generating 82.4 PPG. They also hold their guests to just 40.4% shooting. Toledo has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. The Rockets are 16th in the nation by making 38.4% of their 3-pointers. The Cardinals are one of the best teams defending the perimeter as they rank 29th nationally by holding their opponents to just 30.3% shooting from behind the arc. But they are vulnerable against teams that attack the glass — they allow their opponents to pull down 33.2% of their missed shots, 305th nationally. Toledo is third in the MAC by rebounding 31.5% of their misses when playing at home. The Rockets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games when favored. Ball State held the Eagles to just 36.7% shooting on Tuesday in what was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 30 points against a conference foe. Ball State has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Cardinals have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after winning at least two in a row. Now they go back on the road for the first time since January 30th (not a typo) — they have played seven straight games at home. Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 road games after playing at least three straight games at home. They are just 3-7 on the road while making only 42.9% of their shots for 69.7 PPG — those numbers are a far cry from the 52.1% shooting they enjoyed on Tuesday on their home court. The Cardinals play their best basketball at home. They rank 141st in Adjusted Net Efficiency — they climb to 125th when playing at home. But Ball State falls to 194th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. The Cardinals have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games against a team with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 150s.
FINAL TAKE: Ball State upset Toledo in their previous meeting on February 6th in an 81-67 victory as a 9-point underdog. The Rockets made only 7 of 32 shots from behind the arc — but they make 38.7% of their 3-pointers at home. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Game of the Year with the Toledo Rockets (828) minus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (827). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-04-21 |
Texas v. Oklahoma -2 |
Top |
69-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (750) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (749). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (14-8) has lost three in a row after their 79-75 upset loss at Oklahoma State as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Texas (15-7) has won four of their last six games after their 81-67 win at Iowa State as a 12.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma lost their third straight close game on Monday — their three losses were by a combined 13 points. The Regression Gods should be making a visit to Norman soon. They allowed the Cowboys to make 52.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 19 games. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss. Oklahoma has also covered the point spread in 29 of their last 42 home games after losing two in a row against Big 12 foes. And while this is the Sooners’ third game since Saturday, they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 home games when playing their third game in seven or fewer days. Oklahoma does return home where they are 10-2 with an average winning margin of +15.1 PPG scoring average. The Sooners hold their visitors to 39.2% shooting — and they are scoring a healthy 80.2 PPG at home. While they rank 28th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they improve to 16th in that metric when evaluating how teams play on their home court. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games with the Total set in the 140s. Furthermore, the Sooners have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games. Texas made 51% of their shots on Tuesday against the Cyclones which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. Yet the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 10 or more points on the road. Furthermore, the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after winning four or five of their last six games after winning four or five of their last six. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 140s. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Longhorns are just 1-6-1 ATS.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma won the first meeting between these two teams on January 26th by an 80-70score with the Longhorns undermanned given COVID issues at the time. But Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN Game of the Year with the Oklahoma Sooners (750) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (749). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-01-21 |
Oklahoma +1 v. Oklahoma State |
Top |
75-79 |
Loss |
-113 |
7 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (845) minus the point(s) versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (846). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (14-7) lost their second-straight game on Saturday in a 94-90 loss in overtime at home to the Cowboys. Oklahoma State (16-6) has won four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Oklahoma should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. Additionally, the Sooners have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after losing two in a row. Oklahoma travels to Stillwater for this rematch — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Sooners are a defense-first team that ranks 39th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 19th in opponent’s field goal percentage inside the arc. They are led by senior point guard Austin Reaves who leads the team in scoring, rebounds, and assists. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. They also have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games with the total set in the 140s. And in their last 20 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Sooners have covered the point spread in 14 of these contests. Oklahoma State may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread 13 of their last 20 games after an upset victory against a Big 12 rival as an underdog getting at least 6 points. Additionally, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Furthermore, Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after winning at least two in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games after winning at least three in a row. The quick turnaround will not help either as the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Oklahoma State is overvalued when playing at home. They rank 32nd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but while they are 34th nationally on the road, they plummet to 51st nationally when playing at home in Stillwater. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games as an underdog getting up to 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Game of the Month with the Oklahoma Sooners (845) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (846). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-01-21 |
North Carolina v. Syracuse +2 |
|
70-72 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Syracuse Orange (840) plus the point(s) versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (839). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (13-8) has lost two in a row after their 84-77 loss at Georgia Tech on Saturday as a 4.5-point underdog. North Carolina (15-8) has won three of their last four games with their 78-70 upset win against Florida State as a 2-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ORANGE PLUS THE POINT(S): Syracuse allowed the Yellow Jackets to make 50% of their shots on the heels of allowing Duke to shoot over 53% against them last Monday in an 85-71 loss. The Orange have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Syracuse returns home where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games as an underdog. The Orange are better at home according to the laptops. While Syracuse ranks 68th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they climb to 47th nationally when playing at home. The Orange have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. North Carolina may be due for a letdown after their big win against the Seminoles. The Tar Heels are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a straight-up win — and they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. North Carolina hits the road again for the first time since February 13th after playing their last four games at home. The Tar Heels rank 27th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they fall to 64th in that metric when evaluating how teams play on the road. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when favored by up to 6 points. The Tar Heels are also just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Syracuse will be looking to avenge an 81-75 loss at North Carolina as a 4-point underdog on January 12th. The Orange have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss. 10* CBB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Syracuse Orange (840) plus the point(s) versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (839). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-28-21 |
Lafayette -3 v. Lehigh |
Top |
71-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Lafayette Leopards (1511) minus the points versus the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (1512). THE SITUATION: Lafayette (8-5) has won three of their last four games with their 75-69 win at home against the Mountain Hawks yesterday. Lehigh (4-9) has now lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LEOPARDS MINUS THE POINTS: Lafayette should build off their momentum from yesterday as they are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a win against a Patriot League foe. The Leopards have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with one day or less of rest. They now go on the road where the metrics say they play better. Lafayette ranks 234rd nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but while they are 236th when at home, they climb to 217th when on the road. The Leopards are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 road games with the number in the 140s. Additionally, Lafayette has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as a favorite. The Leopards have the second-best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency numbers in the Patriot League — and they lead the conference by nailing 37.5% of their 3-pointers on the road. Lehigh has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss on the road to a conference rival. The Mountain Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games when playing day or less of rest. Lehigh is 1-4 at home where they are getting outscored by -13.0 PPG — and they have retained more value as a road underdog yesterday. The Mountains Lions are 306th in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they are even worse at home with a 337th ranking as compared to their 268th rating when playing on the road. Lehigh has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. This is not a good basketball team — they rank 10th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 8th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Patriot League. They have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.4% of their shots while making only 37.3% of their shots over that span. The Mountain Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Lehigh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a loss. The Mountain Lions beat the Leopards on January 2nd but have since lost the next two meetings this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when motivated by double-revenge. 25* CBB Patriot League Game of the Month with the Lafayette Leopards (1511) minus the points versus the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (1512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-28-21 |
Pittsburgh +7 v. NC State |
|
62-65 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (807) plus the points versus the North Carolina State (808). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (9-9) has lost four in a row after their 79-72 loss to Florida State as a 7-point underdog back on February 20th. NC State (11-9) has won three in a row with their 68-61 upset win at Virginia as an 11.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a good spot to fade the Wolfpack after they played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Cavaliers to just 37.0% shooting. NC State is still allowing their ACC opponents to make 47.1% of their shots which is generating 73.0 PPG. The Wolfpack have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 19 games at home after a point spread win. Now after playing their last three games on the road, they return home for the first time since February 13th. But NC State does not retain a big home-court advantage. Let’s get out one of my secret weapons: net efficiency rating home/road splits. The metrics I lean on rate the Wolfpack as the 62nd team in the nation Adjusted Net Efficiency. But while NC State is 36th nationally on the road in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they plummet to just 97th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home. That helps to explain why the Wolfpack are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games when favored. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Pittsburgh has not played in eight days — and they have since lost Xavier Johnson and Au’Diese Toney who decided to transfer from the program. Those two players account for 28.6 PPG — and that is why we are getting a few more points in this game than what the laptops are projecting. These kinds of absences tend to get overrated by the betting public. Head coach Jeff Capel still has his leading scorer in Justin Champagne who is scoring 18.8 PPG — and this is an opportunity for other players to step up. Often disgruntled players leaving a program is addition by subtraction (ask Duke). Even with Johnson and Toney, the Panthers shot only 38.2% from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Pitt has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after losing two in a row at home. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games after playing their last two at home. The Panthers rank 83rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but while they drop to 109th at home, they rise to 68th when playing on the road. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Pitt is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a favorite — and they are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Panthers (807) plus the points versus the North Carolina State (808). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-21 |
CS-Northridge +10 v. CS Bakersfield |
Top |
90-87 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the CS-Northridge Matadors (771) plus the points versus the CS-Bakersfield Roadrunners (772). THE SITUATION: CS-Northridge (8-10) has lost three of their last four games after their 84-58 loss at CS-Bakersfield last night as an 8-point underdog. CS-Bakersfield (15-9) snapped a two-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MATADORS PLUS THE POINTS: Just a bad night for CS-Northridge as they made only 39.0% of their shots — and they allowed the Roadrunners to shoot 54.1% from the field in what was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. But head coach Mike Gottfried’s team has rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Matadors usually are competitive against good teams as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. CS-Northridge is also 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams who win at least 60% of their games at home. Additionally, the Matadors have covered the point spread 12 of their last 17 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games as a dog getting 6.5 to 12 points. CS-Bakersfield had their best shooting effort in ten games with their 54.5% clip last night. They also enjoyed the best defensive effort in their last ten games by holding the Matadors to 39.0% shooting. They raced out to a 47-22 halftime lead — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after holding a halftime lead of at least 20 points. Additionally, the Roadrunners have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least 20 points. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. CS-Bakersfield remains just 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games at home — and they are only 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 home games when favored. The Roadrunners are just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: CS-Northridge has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games when avenging a loss by at least 20 points. Last night was an outlier — the Matadors will play better and we are getting two more points of value from last night’s point spread. 25* CBB Big West Underdog of the Year with the CS-Northridge Matadors (771) plus the points versus the CS-Bakersfield Roadrunners (772). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-21 |
Portland State +2 v. Northern Colorado |
Top |
73-65 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Portland State Pilots (643) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (644). THE SITUATION: Portland State (8-10) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Thursday in a 66-64 loss at Northern Colorado in a pick ‘em matchup. Northern Colorado (10-8) has won two in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PILOTS PLUS THE POINTS: Portland State made only 32.8% of their shots on Thursday in the worst shooting effort in their last 14 games. They should shoot better this afternoon being more familiar with the gym. As it is, the Pilots have covered the point spread 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss on the road to a conference foe. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, head coach Barret Peery’s team has been very good playing on short rest. They have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 24 games when playing with one day or less of rest including six straight games under those circumstances. Portland State has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing their second game on the road in three days. Peery has his team do the little things to create more scoring opportunities — so they should be in good shape in this rematch if they can approach making 40% of their shots. The Pilots lead the Big Sky by pulling down 32.5% of their missed shots. They also lead the conference in forcing turnovers in 25.7% of their opponent’s possessions — and the Bears are 8th in the Big Sky by turning the ball over in 19.1% of their possessions. Portland State may be just 1-6 on the road but they are losing these games by an average of -1.5 PPG. They hold their home hosts to just 42.8% shooting. The Pilots are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games as an underdog. Northern Colorado played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Pilots to 32.8% shooting. This is the Bears’ third game since Monday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games when playing their third home game in seven days. They rank 237th in Adjusted Net Efficiency by the deeper metrics — but they fall to 255th in the Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home. Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total in the 130s. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored overall.
FINAL TAKE: Portland State has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 26 games when playing with revenge including five of these last seven situations. They also have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Big Sky Underdog of the Year with the Portland State Pilots (643) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (644). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-21 |
Tennessee State v. Morehead State -11 |
|
60-74 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Morehead State Eagles (742) minus the points versus the Tennessee State Tigers (741). THE SITUATION: Morehead State (18-7) has won two in a row with their 56-48 win at SIU-Edwardsville on Monday as a 13-point favorite. Tennessee State (4-17) has lost seven of their last eight games with their 77-76 loss to Jacksonville State as a 7-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Morehead State should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They return home for the first time since February 6th where they are 10-1 this season with an average winning margin of +11.2 PPG. The Eagles hold their guests to just 59.1 PPG on 38.4% shooting from the field. Morehead State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have coved the point spread in 4 straight games at home against a team with a losing record on the road. Tennessee State allowed Jacksonville State to make 52.8% of their shots — they were the fourth opponent in their last five games who shot at least 50% from the field against them. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss. They go back on the road for the first time since February 6th after playing their last four games at home. Tennessee State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games after playing their last three games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against a team with a losing record. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Morehead State Eagles (742) minus the points versus the Tennessee State Tigers (741). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-21 |
South Carolina +6 v. Mississippi State |
|
48-69 |
Loss |
-109 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (681) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (682). THE SITUATION: South Carolina (5-11) has lost five straight games with their 93-78 loss at home to Missouri as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Mississippi State (12-11) snapped a two-game losing streak on Saturday with their 66-56 win at Ole Miss as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GAMECOCKS PLUS THE POINTS: South Carolina allowed the Tigers to make 57.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. The Gamecocks have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a double-digit loss to a conference opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by 10 for more points at home. South Carolina has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. They stay go back on the road where they are ranked 80th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — as compared to their ranking at home of just 129th in Adjusted Net Efficiency. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road as a dog getting 3.5 to 6 points. Mississippi State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Bulldogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a win on the road. They return home where they are just 8-5 and likely overvalued. The analytics rank Mississippi State as 80th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home as compared to their ranking of 16th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when they are playing on the road. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. Furthermore, Mississippi State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: South Carolina is avenging a 75-59 upset loss at home to Mississippi State as a 3-point favorite on February 6th — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 20* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the South Carolina Gamecocks (681) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (682). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-21 |
NC State v. Wake Forest +1.5 |
|
80-62 |
Loss |
-109 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (636) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (635). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (6-10) has lost two games in a row with their 84-60 loss to Duke on Wednesday as a 6-point underdog. NC State (9-9) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 74-73 upset win at Pittsburgh on Wednesday as a 4.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DEMON DEACONS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: Wake Forest allowed a Blue Devils team (seemingly liberated from freshman Jalen Johnson after he opted-out for the rest of the season) to make 54.1% of their shots from the field in what was the worst defensive effort this season. The Demon Deacons have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss to a conference rival. Wake Forest has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Demon Deacons have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two in a row to ACC opponents. Wake Forest stays at home where they are 5-3 with an average winning margin of +6.5 PPG. The Demon Deacons have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Wake Forest has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when priced in the +/- 3-point range. NC State nailed 56.9% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort for them this season. But the Wolfpack have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after an upset win — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread loss. NC State stays on the road where they are just 3-5 this season. They are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Wolfpack are far from 100% for this game. They have already lost their leading scorer, Devon Daniels, to a season-ending knee injury last month. Thomas Allen did not play against the Panthers — he has led the team in scoring in three of his last nine starts. Braxton Beverly is dealing with back and hip issues — while he scored 12 points on Wednesday, he is questionable for this game. NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Wolfpack won the previous meeting between these two teams on January 27th in a 72-67 win as a 7.5-point favorite. The Demon Deacons have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities to avenge a loss. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (636) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (635). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-21 |
Georgia Tech v. Miami-FL +3.5 |
|
87-60 |
Loss |
-104 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (606) plus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (605). THE SITUATION: Miami (7-12) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 71-61 loss at Notre Dame last Sunday as a 7-point underdog. Georgia Tech (10-8) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 71-65 victory against Pittsburgh as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES PLUS THE POINTS: Miami shot just 32.4% from the field on Sunday against the Irish in what was the worst shooting effort of the season. They should shoot better this afternoon. The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games after a loss on the road against a conference rival. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home after two straight losses to ACC foes — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after losing three of their last four games. Head coach Jim Larranaga’s team has been riddled with injuries this season — at one point, they were down to just six scholarship players. These absences have opened space for rising sophomores, Isaiah Wong and Harlond Beverly, to step into scoring and leadership roles. They return home were they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games while holding their guests to just 41.9% shooting. The Hurricanes are better on their home court where they rank 116th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency as compared to their 186nd ranking in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games as an underdog of up to 6 points. One thing this Miami team will not do is put the Yellow Jackets on the line — they are second best in the nation in free throw rate. Georgia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games when playing with five or six days off since their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 130s. They are just 2-5 on the road while only making 44.3% of their shots. The Yellow Jackets allow their home hosts to make 40.5% of their 3-pointers, 316th in the nation, and these home teams are pulling down 33.5% of their missed shots, 307th nationally. Georgia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games when favored by 3.5 to 6 points. Head coach Josh Pastner’s team has faltered on defense as well as of late — their last five opponents have made 48.2% of their baskets.
FINAL TAKE: The Yellow Jackets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon Tipoff with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (606) plus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (605). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-19-21 |
Jacksonville v. Stetson -5.5 |
|
75-91 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Stetson Hatters (307094) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (307093). THE SITUATION: Stetson (8-11) has lost two of their last three games after their 83-75 upset loss at Kennesaw State as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Jacksonville (10-12) has lost eight of their last nine games with their 71-69 loss to Lipscomb as a 7-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HATTERS MINUS THE POINTS: Stetson allowed Kennesaw State to make 49.0% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. The Hatters have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road. Stetson has also covered the points spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Now after playing their last two games, the Hatters return home where they are 5-3 with an average winning wagon of +12.1 PPG. Stetson has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after playing their last two games on the road. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 130 to 134.5 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. The Hatter hold their visitors to just 42.6% shooting which translates into just 63.0 PPG on their home court. Stetson is much better at home — they rank 198th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home as opposed to their 257th mark on the road. They are also averaging 47.2% shooting and 78.6 PPG over their last five games which are both improvements over their 70.1 PPGand 41.9% shooting averages for the season.
|
02-18-21 |
Iowa v. Wisconsin +1 |
|
77-62 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (740) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (739). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (15-7) has lost two of their last three games after their 67-59 loss at home to Michigan on Sunday as a +0.5-point underdog. Iowa (15-6) has won two in a row after their 88-58 blowout win at home against Iowa as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The Hawkeyes played one of their best games of the season on Saturday. They held the Spartans to just 35.5% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last eight games — and their 49.2% field goal percentage was the best shooting mark in their last four games. But Iowa is just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 30 points. The Hawkeyes have nailed 13 and 11 shots from behind the arc in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on the road after converting at least 10 shots from 3-point land in two straight games. They go back on the road where they are just 4-4 — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games away from home. Iowa is also a rough 19-40-2 ATS in their last 61 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Hawkeyes have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Wisconsin should respond with a strong effort tonight — they are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. The Badgers have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a loss to a Big Ten rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. They stay at home where they remain ranked 5th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. Wisconsin is 10-3 at home with an average winning margin of +13.2 PPG — they hold their opponents to 39.1% shooting and only 60.3 PPG. And while Iowa scores 87.4 PPG, the Badgers have covered the point spread in 51 of their last 84 home games against teams who average at least 77 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 140s. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They might be undermanned for this game with CJ Fredricks questionable with a leg injury. 10* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Wisconsin Badgers (740) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (739). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-17-21 |
The Citadel v. Wofford -8.5 |
|
67-81 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Wofford Terriers (690) minus the points versus the Citadel Bulldogs (689). THE SITUATION: Wofford (12-8) has lost two in a row after their 71-49 loss at East Tennessee State on Saturday as a 2-point underdog. The Citadel (11-8) saw their two-game winning streak end on Saturday in a 70-66 loss at UT-Chattanooga as a 10-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TERRIERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wofford made only 34.0% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last ten games. They also allowed the Buccaneers to shoot 49.0% from the field in what was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. The Terriers should play better as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not scoring more than 50 points in their last game. And while they only managed 21 points in the first half against East Tennessee State, they have then covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games when playing at home after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. Wofford has only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — but they have then covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Terriers return home where they torch the nets at a 52.5% clip which generates 83.2 PPG. Wofford is 7-3 on their home court while outscoring their opponents by +13.1 PPG. The Citadel allows their home hosts to shoot 50.4% from the field which is producing 90.7 PPG. The Bulldogs are 1-5 on the road with an average losing margin of -8.7 PPG. The Citadel is just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games against a Southern Conference opponent. The Bulldogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a loss on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home.
FINAL TAKE: Wofford will be looking to avenge a 77-69 upset loss at the Citadel as an 8.5-point favorite on January 7th. The Terriers have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 55 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss where they were laying at least 7 points. 10* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Wofford Terriers (690) minus the points versus the Citadel Bulldogs (689). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-17-21 |
Marquette v. Butler -2 |
Top |
73-57 |
Loss |
-108 |
7 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Butler Bulldogs (672) minus the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (671). THE SITUATION: Butler (7-11) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in a 78-63 loss at Georgetown as a 1.5-point underdog. Marquette (9-12) has lost three in a row after their 57-51 loss at Seton Hall as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Butler made only 39.0% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Bulldogs have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. And while Butler has lost four of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. They return home where they are 6-3 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on their home court. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. Butler has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games in expected close contests when they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. Head coach LeVall Jordan’s team ranks 27th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding only 23.3% of their missed shots. This skill will come in handy against this Golden Eagles team that rebounds 30.4% of their misses shots, ranking 97th nationally. Marquette lost to the Pirates on Sunday despite holding them to just 37.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. The Golden Eagles have still allowed their last five opponents to make 46.6% of their shots. Marquette has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a loss by 6 points or less. Marquette is slumping with six losses in their last seven games while only covering the point spread twice in their last eight games. That is not a good sign for them tonight. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after losing at least four or five of their last six games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They stay on the road for the third game of a rough five-game road trip. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their home games. The Golden Eagles are just 3-5 on the road — and they allow their home hosts to make 38.1% of their 3-pointers, 282nd in the nation. Marquette has not covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Golden Eagles miss freshman Justin Lewis who has missed the last two games doe to a leg injury that leaves him questionable tonight. While he is is scoring only 8.1 PPG, he is one of their best defenders. Butler will be motivated to avenge a 70-67 loss at Marquette on February 2nd as a 4.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Wednesday FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Butler Bulldogs (672) minus the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (671). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-21 |
Fairfield v. St. Peter's -10 |
Top |
49-66 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (820) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (819). THE SITUATION: Saint Peter’s (9-7) had won three of their last four games before getting upset at home yesterday to the Stags, 55-50, despite being an 11-point favorite. Fairfield (5-13) has pulled off two straight upset victories.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PEACOCKS MINUS THE POINTS: When Saint Peter’s struggles, it is because they can’t make baskets. The Peacocks made only 32.7% of their shots yesterday which was the third-lowest shooting mark for them all season and their worst shooting effort when playing at home. Leading scorer KC Ndefo was in foul trouble all game and played only 22 minutes — so the reset today will help. These two teams went into halftime yesterday with the score tied, 17-17. Saint Peter’s has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. Saint Peter’s has also covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games after playing at home where they did not score more than 60 points. Head coach Shaheen Holloway’s group does play ferocious defense — Saint Peter’s ranks second in the nation by holding their opponents to just 41.2% shooting inside the arc. They held Fairfield to 37.3% shooting which was actually the highest opponent field goal percentage they allowed in their last six games. The Peacocks’ also force turnovers in 22.0% of their opponent’s possessions which is 42nd in the country. The Stags are loose with the basketball — they turn the ball over in 21.2% of their possessions away from, 245th in the nation. They turned the ball over 17 times yesterday accounting for 27.7% of their possessions. Saint Peter’s should get plenty of easy scoring chances tonight — they just need to make more than just 2 of 17 shots from behind the arc as they did yesterday. The Peacocks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They suffered their first loss at home in six games yesterday — but they are still outscoring their visitors by +7.9 PPG due to their defense that holds their opponents to 55.8 PPG on 35.4% shooting. Saint Peter’s has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by 9.5 to 12 points. Fairfield is 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. The Stags have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after an upset win as a road underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after an upset win against a conference opponent. Fairfield’s defensive effort was out of the ordinary — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after holding their previous opponent to 33% of less shooting. The Stags have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after not allowing more than 50 points. They allow their home hosts to made 45.3% of their shots which results in 70.0 PPG — and they allow conference foes to shoot 46.5%. Fairfield may not crack 50 points in this rematch either as they score only 58.0 PPG on the road on 38.4% shooting. The Stags have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their shots at home. Fairfield has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total under 130.
FINAL TAKE: Four of Saint Peter’s nine wins have been by double-digits — so they have been able to generate enough offense to cover 10 or so points. The Peacocks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when playing with same-season revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite laying 7 or more points. Saint Peter’s has also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (820) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (819). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-13-21 |
Utah v. Stanford -4 |
|
66-73 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Stanford Cardinal (774) minus the points versus the Utah Utes (773). THE SITUATION: Stanford (12-8) looks to bounce-back from their 69-51 loss at home to Colorado on Thursday as a 1-point underdog. Utah (9-7) has won their last three games after their 76-75 win at California as a 4-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINAL MINUS THE POINTS: We had Stanford on Thursday against the Buffaloes — and they were a big disappointment after making only 39.6% of their shots in what was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. We don’t want to chase our losers — but we also do not want to forego good investment opportunities simply because we were burned in the past. Examining the team trends regarding the personality of a team is helpful to avoid these pitfalls. The Cardinal has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not scoring more than 60 points in their last game. Stanford has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss at home. The Cardinal has not covered the point spread in two straight games as well as four of their last five contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not covering the point spread in their last two games and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 home games after only covering the point spread once in their last five games. Stanford stays at home where they are 5-2 this season while making 49.9% of their shots — so they should shoot better tonight. The Cardinal has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games after playing their last game at home in Palo Alto — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. Utah made 51.1% of their shots on Thursday in the best shooting effort in their last four games. The Utes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against a Pac-12 opponent. The Utes have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. Utah stays on the road where they are just 3-4 — and they allow their home hosts to make 48.7% of their shots so I am reasonably confident that the Cardinal shoots better tonight. The Utes have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games as an underdog. 10* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Stanford Cardinal (774) minus the points versus the Utah Utes (773). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-13-21 |
Weber State -1.5 v. Montana |
|
91-82 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Weber State Wildcats (687) minus the point(s) versus the Montana Grizzlies (688). THE SITUATION: Weber State (11-5) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Thursday in their 80-67 upset loss at Montana as a 2-point favorite. Montana (8-9) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINT(S): Weber State allowed the Grizzlies to shoot 52.6% from the field in what was the worst defensive effort of their season. The Wildcats have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. Weber State did themselves no favors on the other end of the court either as they made only 44% of their shots in the worst shooting effort in their last five games. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after an upset loss to a conference opponent. They also have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they are 26-9-2 ATS in their last 37 games after a point spread loss. They have still covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite. Montana enjoyed the best shooting day in their last seven contests with that 52.6% clip. But they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread win. And in their last 12 games at home after a win on their home court, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of those contests. They are 5-2 on their home court this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Weber State has covered the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games when avenging a loss on the road by at least 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Weber State Wildcats (687) minus the point(s) versus the Montana Grizzlies (688). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-13-21 |
Charlotte +4.5 v. Old Dominion |
|
45-64 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Charlotte 49ers (673) plus the points versus the Old Dominion Monarchs (674). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (9-10) suffered their third-straight upset loss on Wednesday in their 78-76 loss in overtime at home to the Monarchs. Old Dominion (10-5) has won three of their last four games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: Charlotte also lost to Middle Tennessee on the road by a basket over this recent stretch of tough luck. But they need to tighten things up on defense after allowing Old Dominion to make 61.7% of their shots in the worst defensive effort of their season. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 60% of their shots. Charlotte has been resilient — they are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss at home against a conference rival. They are also 22-8-2 ATS in the last 32 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 6 opportunities to redeem themselves from an upset loss at home, the 49ers have covered the point spread in all 6 occasions. The 49ers have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after only covering the point spread once in their last five games. Charlotte has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games are a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread victory. The Monarch’s 61.7% shooting clip on Wednesday was the best shooting effort of their season. But they have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games after a close win by 3 points or less — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in seven of these last ten situations. They host this rematch where they are 6-1 — but they only have net winning margin of +3.7 PPG in these seven games. Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Old Dominion has covered the point spread in all 3 of their opportunities to avenge a loss at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. Don’t be surprised if the 49ers finally win a close game again (five games have finished in overtime for them this season) — but take the points for the insurance. 20* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but take the points) Underdog Special with the Charlotte 49ers (673) plus the points versus the Old Dominion Monarchs (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-13-21 |
Samford v. VMI -5 |
Top |
56-85 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the VMI Keydets (616) minus the points versus the Samford Bears (615). VMI (10-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 74-72 loss at Western Carolina on Wednesday as a 1.5-point underdog. Samford (6-10) has lost three straight games as well as seven of their last eight with their 77-70 loss to Mercer as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KEYDETS MINUS THE POINTS: VMI allowed the Catamounts to make 45.2% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. They should play better this afternoon since they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — including covering the point spread in seven of these last eight situations. The Keydets have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss to a Southern Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road. This is VMI’s just second game since February 3rd — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games if they are not playing more than their second game in the last week. They return home where they are 9-1 this season with an average winning margin of +16.1 PPG. They make 50.6% of their shots at home which is generating 89.2 PPG — and they hold their guests to just 40.8% shooting from the field. The Keydets have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games including their last seven games. They also have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. This is VMI’s first home game in their last four games after playing their last three contests on the road. Their last home game was on January 27th — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games after playing at least their last three games on the road. The Keydets are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation as they are 24th nationally with a 38.2% shooting mark from behind the arc — and they improve to a 43.6% shooting percentage from downtown when playing in their own gym, 10th best in the nation. Defending the perimeter is an area of weakness for the Bulldogs as they rank 332nd nationally by allowing their opponents to nail 47.7% of their 3-pointers when they are playing on the road. Samford is also 323rd in the nation with an opponent's free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 41.0% — and VMI makes 78.7% of their free throws at home, ranking 23rd nationally. The Bulldogs make 47.3% of their shots on Wednesday in a losing effort which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. But Samford has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after losing two in a row. The Bulldogs have surrendered at least 77 points in their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 75 points in two straight contests. They go back on the road where they are just 2-5 this season — and they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games. Additionally, Samford has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the total set in the 150s — and they are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Bulldogs make only 29.4% of their 3-pointers, 313th nationally, so it may be difficult for them to stay competitive in this one. VMI averages 11 made 3-pointers per game — and Samford has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after 15 games into the season against teams who average at least 8 made 3s per contest. The Bulldogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games with the Total in the 150s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: VMI will be motivated to avenge an 84-71 loss at Samford as a 2.5-point underdog on December 30th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Southern Conference Game of the Year with the VMI Keydets (616) minus the points versus the Samford Bears (615). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-11-21 |
Colorado v. Stanford +1 |
Top |
69-51 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Stanford Cardinal (718) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus Colorado Buffaloes (717). THE SITUATION: Stanford (12-7) has won two games in a row after their 76-70 win against California as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday. Colorado (15-5) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 78-49 win against Oregon State as a 13-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINAL PLUS THE POINT(S): The Buffaloes made 55.8% of their shots for the second-straight game to defeat the Beavers. But Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. They also held Oregon State to just 32.7% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last 15 games. But the Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing no more than 50 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win against a Pac-12 foe — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after winning at least 15 of their last 20 games. Now after getting rich at home in the high-altitude of Boulder where they are 8-1 this season after a four-game homestand, they go back on the road for the first time since January 23rd. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning their previous two games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on the road after winning their last two games at home. Furthermore, the Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games after playing at least three straight games at home. Colorado ranks 7th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home fueled by them nailing 44.0% of their 3-pointers in Boulder, 8th best in the nation. But in their eight true road games on their opponent’s home court, the Buffaloes make only 29.7% of their 3-pointers, 269th in the nation, while falling to 68th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in true road games. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 42 of their last 56 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 47 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Stanford has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a win at home against a Pac-12 foe. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after winning at least two in a row. The Cardinal made 58.3% of their shots against the Golden Bears — but that was the third straight game when they shot at least 51.9% from the field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after shooting at least 55% in their last contest. This is a very tough team to beat if they are making their shots as they rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are also 9th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line. They are 5-1 at home where they are making 51.4% of their shots while holding their guests to 41.1% shooting. Stanford is 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games at home — and they are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Cardinal will be looking to avenge a 77-64 loss at Colorado on January 16th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with same-season revenge. Stanford has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Thursday ESPNU Game of the Year with the Stanford Cardinal (718) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus Colorado Buffaloes (717). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-10-21 |
Virginia v. Georgia Tech +4.5 |
Top |
57-49 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (670) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (669). THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (9-6) has won two of their last three games with their 82-80 win against Notre Dame as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. Virginia (13-3) has won nine of their last ten with their 73-66 victory against Pittsburgh as an 11-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YELLOW JACKETS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia Tech should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a home win against an ACC rival. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by 6 points or less. Additionally, the Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home as a favorite where they did not cover the point spread. Georgia Tech shot a season-high 58.3% from the field on Saturday which would usually give me pause — but that was the fifth time in their last nine games where they shot at least 50% from the field. Furthermore, good offensive efforts are usually a good sign for this team as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after shooting at least 55% from the field — including both times this season. They stay at home on North Avenue in Atlanta where they rank 22nd in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Yellow Jackets are 7-2 at home with an average winning margin of +8.6 net PPG. Georgia Tech scores 83.0 PPG at home where they make 48.7% of their shots. The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games as an underdog. They did allow the Fighting Irish to make 59.3% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst defensive effort of their season — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. And while Georgia Tech has not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in two straight contests. This is a program that has covered the point spread in 50 of their last 74 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Virginia made 53.2% of their shots on Saturday against Pitt which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. The Cavaliers have allowed only 27 and 24 points in the first half in two straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. Virginia has been favored in ten straight games since their showdown with Gonzaga — but not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after being favored in at least four straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after being favored in at least five straight games. They go back on the road where they are just 4-3 this season — and they are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record at home. The Cavaliers are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when favored — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia Tech will be looking to avenge a narrow 64-62 loss to the Cavaliers in Charlottesville on January 23rd as an 8.5-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 53 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 3 points or less. 25* CBB ACC Underdog of the Year with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (670) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (669). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-10-21 |
Furman v. NC-Greensboro -1 |
|
58-64 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (646) minus the point(s) versus the Furman Paladins (645). THE SITUATION: UNC-Greensboro (13-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Monday in their 68-49 loss at Furman as a 4-point underdog. Furman (12-6) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNC-GREENSBORO MINUS POINT(S): The Spartans only made 29% of their shots on Monday in what was the worst shooting effort of the season. UNC-Greensboro should respond with a better effort today — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 50 points in their last game. Sparty missed 16 of their 18 shots from behind the arc in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not making more than 30% of their 3-point shots in their last game. UNC-Greensboro has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Spartans should get back to business in this one as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while this is UNC-Greensboro’s second game since last Wednesday, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing just their second game in seven days. They return home for this rematch where they hold their opponents to just 40% shooting — and they rank 21st in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency when playing on their home court. Furman has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. And while the Paladins’ last two opponents have only committed 12 and 7 personal fouls in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing two straight games where their opponent did not commit more than 15 personal fouls. Holding UNC-Greensboro to just 29.0% shooting was the best defensive effort of the season. They return home where they are just 4-5. Furman has an effective field goal percentage of 62.3% when playing at home which is third-best in the nation — but their eFG drops to 53.3% when playing away from home which is the 42nd best mark (still good, but not uber-elite) in road games on their opponent’s home court. The Paladins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home.
FINAL TAKE: Furman has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. UNC-Greensboro has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games when favored. 10* CBB Furman-UNC-Greensboro EPNU Special with the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (646) minus the point(s) versus the Furman Paladins (645). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-08-21 |
Oklahoma State v. Kansas -4.5 |
Top |
66-78 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (864) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (863). THE SITUATION: Kansas (12-7) has lost five of their last seven games after their 91-79 loss at West Virginia on Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. Oklahoma State (12-5) has won three of their last four games after their 75-67 win in double-overtime against Texas on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas allowed the Mountaineers to make 50% of their shots — that was just the fourth time all season that they have allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field. The Jayhawks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing their last opponent to score at least 90 points in their last game. The five losses for head coach Bill Self’s team were all on the road during this recent tough stretch of games — and the two wins were their only two games at home at Allen Fieldhouse. This is just their third game at home since January 9th. Playing at home will help — Kansas is 8-1 on their home court this season while outscoring their opponents by +12.1 PPG. The Jayhawks should play much better on the defensive end of the court as they hold their guests to just 38.5% shooting which is resulting in just 60.8 PPG. This team has been very reliable under Self when bouncing-back from losses. Kansas is 46-21-3 ATS in their last 70 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss to a Big 12 rival. The Jayhawks have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a loss on the road by 10 or more points. Kansas has only covered the point spread twice in their last eight games — but they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games including covering the point spread in four of these last five situations. Playing at home should help the Jayhawks get a few more whistles (even without fans) as their opponents have only been called for 12 and 13 personal fouls in their last two games. Kansas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing two straight games where their opponents did not get call for more than 15 personal fouls in their last game. Oklahoma State held the Longhorns to just 25.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort of their season. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding their previous opponent to no better than 33% shooting. Additionally, Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset win as a home dog. Furthermore, the Cowboys are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning three of their last four games. Now Oklahoma State goes back on the road for just the third time since January 9th. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 50 of their last 77 road games as an underdog of 6 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 6 point range. Oklahoma State has been living on the edge as they have allowed their last two opponents to attempt 11 and 12 more shots from the field. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after taking at least 10 fewer shots than their opponent in two straight contests.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas will be motivated to avenge a 75-70 upset loss at Oklahoma State as a 3.5-point underdog on January 12th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging an upset loss. 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Game of the Year with the Kansas Jayhawks (864) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (863). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-21 |
Mississippi State +3 v. South Carolina |
Top |
75-59 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (671) plus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (672). THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (10-9) has lost four of their last five games after their 61-45 loss at Arkansas on Tuesday as a 7.5-point underdog. South Carolina (5-6) has won two of their last three games with their 72-66 upset win at Florida as an 8.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State made only 30.6% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 18 games going back to their opening game of the season on November 25th. Head coach Ben Howland’s team should respond with a strong effort this afternoon — they are 39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 games after a straight-up loss including covering the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after a loss. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by at least 15 points. Additionally, Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. And in their last 12 games after a loss to an SEC opponent, the Bulldogs have responded to cover the point spread 10 times. Howland’s team plays consistently well on the defensive end of the court — they have held their last three opponents to just 37.0% or worse shooting. They have held their last five opponents to just 39.9% shooting which has resulted in only 63.6 PPG. This strong defense travels — Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Their game with the Razorbacks finished well below the 144 point total — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not scoring more than 60 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 55 points. Mississippi State should get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities — they rank 6th in the nation by pulling down 36.8% of their missed shots. The Gamecocks are vulnerable in this area as they rank 11th in the SEC with a 33.2% defensive rebounding rate — and they allow their opponents to pull down 30.7% of their misses overall which is 264th in the nation. South Carolina may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they have played only four times this season — and they make only 42.2% of their shots at home. The Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 48 home games with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range — including four of these last six situations. And in their last 47 home games when favored by 3 points or less, South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread 31 times.
FINAL TAKE: Head coach Frank Martin’s team also likes to crash the glass — they are 11th in the nation in offensive rebounding rate. But the Bulldogs are a better defensive rebounding team that limits their opponents to just 26.2% second-chance opportunities. Mississippi State out-rebounds their opponents by +7.7 RPG — and South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against opponents with a +7.0 or better RPG clip. 25* CBB SEC Underdog of the Year with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (671) plus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-05-21 |
UTEP v. UAB -7.5 |
|
51-63 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (876) minus the points versus the UTEP Miners (875). THE SITUATION: UAB (14-2) has won four in a row after their 63-52 win against Middle Tennessee as a 15-point favorite on Sunday. UTEP (8-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 69-51 win against UTSA as a 4-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UAB MINUS THE POINTS: The Blazers made only 38.5% of their shots against the Blue Raiders which was the worst shooting effort in their last ten games. UAB has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. The Blazers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games after a win against a conference rival. The Blazers are rolling with all four of their wins on their current streak being by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning at least two in a row by double-digits. They return home where they shoot better — they make 47.1% of their shots which generated 78.1 PPG. UAB is 11-1 at home with an average winning margin of +19.5 PPG. They hold their opponents to just 38.1% shooting and only 58.6 PPG. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams who are not winning more than 40% on the road. UAB has also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 54 home games when laying 6.5 to 9.5 points. UTEP held the Roadrunners to just 29.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last ten games. But the Miners have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win against a Conference USA rival. UTEP goes back on the road where they are just 2-6 while making only 39.2% of their shots which is resulting in them scoring 64.7 PPG. The Miners also allow their home hosts to make 47.6% of their shots which is why this one may be a blowout. UTEP has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road with the total set in the 130 to 134.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: UTEP has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and UAB is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the UAB Blazers (876) minus the points versus the UTEP Miners (875). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-03-21 |
East Tennessee State +2.5 v. Mercer |
Top |
70-64 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the East Tennessee State Buccaneers (677) plus the points versus the Mercer Bears (678). THE SITUATION: East Tennessee State (9-6) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 67-62 loss at Wofford as a 2-point underdog. Mercer (10-6) has lost their last two games after their 72-69 loss at Wofford on Saturday as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: East Tennessee State should bounce-back with a strong effort. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. East Tennessee State has also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games on the road after a loss to a conference rival. They allowed Wofford to make 51% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort of the season. Yet the Buccaneers allowed The Citadel to shoot 53.8% from the field in their previous game which was their worst defensive effort — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. East Tennessee State has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after winning at least three of their last four games. The stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in the 140s. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their home games. Mercer has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread cover where they lost the game as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games after a straight-up loss. The Bears return home where they are 6-1 this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on their home court. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Mercer has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored. East Tennessee State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Southern Conference Underdog of the Year with the East Tennessee State Buccaneers (677) plus the points versus the Mercer Bears (678). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-03-21 |
South Carolina +8.5 v. Florida |
|
72-66 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (673) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (674). THE SITUATION: South Carolina (4-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 93-81 upset loss at Vanderbilt as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Florida (10-4) has won their last four games with their 85-80 upset win at West Virginia as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GAMECOCKS PLUS THE POINTS: South Carolina should play better tonight — they have covered the point spewed in 9 of their last 11 games after a double-digit loss to a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. The Gamecocks have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Head coach Frank Martin expects to have Trae Hannibal available for this game after he took a rough fall early in that game again the Commodores — he is listed as probable despite a sore back. South Carolina stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 150 to 154.5 point range. The Gamecocks have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win by 6 points or less. The Gators have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Florida has covered point spread expectations in three of their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games after covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games against teams with a losing record — and the Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games as an underdog. 10* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the South Carolina Gamecocks (673) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-02-21 |
North Carolina v. Clemson +3 |
|
50-63 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (624) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (623). THE SITUATION: Clemson (10-5) has lost four of their last five games after their 79-53 loss at Duke on Saturday as a 5.5-point underdog. North Carolina (11-5) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six of their last seven games with their 75-65 victory at Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Clemson has played three of their last four games on the road — so getting back home where they are 6-1 with an average winning margin of +7.2 PPG will help head coach Brad Brownell’s team. The Tigers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 home games after a loss by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing four of their last five games. Clemson has not made more than 35.8% of their shots in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after not shooting better than 37% in at least two straight games. The Tigers’ defense should keep them in this game (even if their shots continue to not fall) — they hold their guests to just 41.2% shooting at home and they rank 20th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on their home court. Clemson should get good scoring opportunities in transition against this Tar Heels’ team that has been uncharacteristically loose with the basketball for a Roy Williams-coached team. North Carolina turns the ball over in 20.6% of their possessions which is 242nd in the nation — and they are even worse on the road by turning the ball over in 23.1% of their possessions, 296th in the nation. The Tigers are 30th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.6% of their opponent’s possessions. Clemson is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games as an underdog. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning at least three games in a row. And they may be rusty after not playing since last Tuesday. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when playing just their second game in eight days. They stay on the road where they are 5-5 but where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. The Tar Heels have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored by up to 6 points. Additionally, North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 130s — and they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 34 games when favored. This is a desperate Clemson team that needs a win. Expect a close game. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Clemson Tigers (624) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (623). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-29-21 |
Manhattan v. St. Peter's -8 |
Top |
55-59 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (870) minus the points versus the Manhattan Jaspers (869). THE SITUATION: Saint Peter’s (7-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 47-40 loss at Siena on Saturday as a 4-point underdog. Manhattan (5-4) has won three straight games in a row — all upset victories — after their 58-55 win against Niagara as a 1.5-point underdog back on January 16th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PEACOCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Saint Peter’s made only 26.8% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage for them all season. They only scored 18 points in the first half as well — but they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. The Peacocks have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 43 games after not making more than 33% of their shots in their last game. They also made only 4 of their 8 free throws in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not making more than 53% of their free throws in their last game. Shooting the basketball is not the strength of head coach Shaheen Holloway’s team. But he has his group ferocious defense — Saint Peter’s ranks fifth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 41.2% shooting inside the arc. The Peacocks’ also force turnovers in 22.1% of their opponent’s possessions which is 40th in the country. The Jaspers are loose with the basketball — they turn the ball over in 22.0% of their possessions, 304th in the nation. Saint Peter’s should get plenty of easy scoring chances tonight. They should play better as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing three of their last four games. Now after playing their last seven games on the road, they return home for just the fourth time all season. The Peacocks are 3-0 on their home court while holding their guests to just 36.9% shooting and only 57.0 PPG. Saint Peter’s has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home when favored. Manhattan will likely be rusty having not played in two weeks — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after not playing for at least seven days. The Jaspers made 41.7% of their shots in that game which was the shooting effort in their last seven contests. Manhattan has won four of their last five games with two straight upset wins against Niagara precedent by an upset victory against Quinnipiac — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after playing their last two at home as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after pulling off upsets in two straight games as a home dog. Now they go back on the road for just the fourth time this season. In their three road games, they have made only 32.8% of their shots. The Jaspers rank just 347th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Manhattan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Jaspers have not played much of a schedule yet this season — Niagara was the best team they have played so far this season with them ranking 237th in the nation according to the metrics by Ken Pomeroy. Manhattan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Saint Peter’s ranks 164th by Pomeroy. Holloway deploys a deep bench that has ten players who average more than 10 minutes-per-game. The Peacocks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a losing record. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Game of the Month with the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (870) minus the points versus the Manhattan Jaspers (869). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-28-21 |
Oregon State v. USC -11.5 |
|
62-75 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (714) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (713). THE SITUATION: USC (12-3) has won seven of their last eight games with their 76-68 win at California on Saturday as an 8.5-point favorite. Oregon State (8-5) pulled off their third straight upset victory on Saturday with their 75-64 win at Oregon as a 9-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Beavers held the Ducks to just 38.9% shooting from the field in what was the best defensive effort in their last seven games. Four of those opponents made at least 50% of their shots — so I am not ready to consider this team a defensive juggernaut. An emotional letdown is likely — Oregon State has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after an upset win by at least 10 points. The Beavers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after pulling off an upset as a dog getting at least 6 points. Oregon State started this run by upsetting Arizona State before handing the Trojans their lone loss in their last eight games in a 58-56 win as a 9.5-point dog on January 19th. But the Beavers have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after upsetting two straight opponents. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. This will be Oregon State’s just third true road game this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road with the total set in the 130s. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. USC has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. And while the Trojans have only covered the point spread once in their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They return home where they are 8-1 this season with an average winning margin of +14.2 PPG. USC is averaging 80.1 PPG when playing at home while making 47.7% of their shots. They are also holding their guests to just 38.5% shooting. They have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 home games this season when laying 9.5 to 12 points. And while this game is their first home game since playing their last two games on the road where they were favored, the Trojans have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after being a road favorite in their last two contests.
FINAL TAKE: USC has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a same-season loss. 10* CBB Oregon State-USC ESPNU Special with the USC Trojans (714) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (713). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-21 |
Creighton v. Seton Hall +2 |
Top |
85-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Seton Hall Pirates (670) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (669). THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (9-6) has lost two of their last three games with their 76074 loss at Villanova as a 9-point underdog last Tuesday. Creighton (11-4) snapped a two-game losing streak on Saturday in their 74-66 win against UConn as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE POINTS: The Pirates have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. And while their game with the Wildcats flew Over the 140 point total, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Seton Hall returns home where they are 5-1 with an average winning margin of +13.3 PPG. They are scoring 77.3 PPG at home while making 47.6% of their shots. They are also holding their opponents to just 39.9% shooting on their home court. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set at 145 to 149.5. Additionally, Seton Hall has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when getting the points. The Pirates have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Creighton has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games are a win against a conference rival. And with their contest against the Huskies going Over the 135.5 point total, the Bluejays have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Now Creighton goes back on the road where they are 3-2 this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored by up to 4 points. The Bluejays have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Seton Hall is looking to avenge an 89-53 loss to Creighton on January 6th. The Bluejays nailed 59.6% of their shots in that game including making 13 of their 24 shots from downtown. But Creighton played at home in that game where they make 37.1% of their 3-pointers while ranking 7th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Yet the Bluejays make only 34.9% of their 3-pointers away from home, 109th in the nation, while dropping to 55th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Wednesday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Seton Hall Pirates (670) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (669). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-26-21 |
Butler v. Connecticut -5 |
Top |
51-63 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (634) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (633). THE SITUATION: UConn (7-3) has lost two games in a row with their 74-66 loss at Creighton on Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog. Butler (5-7) has won two straight games after they upset DePaul on the road last Tuesday as a 2-point underdog by a 67-53 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: UConn lost their previous game to St. John’s on January 18th before the loss to the Bluejays — and they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two in a two to Big East opponents. The Huskies have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games when playing just their second game in eight days. Head coach Dan Hurley’s team may have played their worst game of the season Saturday. They made only 36.5% of their shots which was their lowest shooting percentage in their last six games. They also allowed Creighton to make 51.1% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort in the last nine games. UConn has not covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in their previous two games. They return home where they are scoring 79.4 PPG — and they are limiting their guests to just 41.9% shooting from the field. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored — and they are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. Butler did play their best game of the season against the Blue Demons — their 50.0% field goal percentage was a season-high and their 33.3% opponent’s field goal percentage was a season-best as well. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in their last two games after they upset Creighton by a 70-66 score as a 7-point underdog in their previous game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. They stay on the road where they are 1-5 with an average losing margin of -8.2 PPG. They allow their home hosts to make 47.1% of their shots. Butler has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after playing a game on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 6 point range. Additionally, the Bulldogs are just 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Butler will be looking to avenge a 72-60 loss at home to UConn on January 9th as a 1.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 51 when attempting to avenge a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Tuesday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Connecticut Huskies (634) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (633). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-26-21 |
North Carolina v. Pittsburgh +3.5 |
|
75-65 |
Loss |
-107 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (620) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (619). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (8-3) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in their 76-75 upset loss at Wake Forest as a 4.5-point favorite. North Carolina (10-5) has won two straight as well as five of their last six games with their 86-76 win against NC State on Saturday as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh allowed the Demon Deacons to make 46.4% of their shots in that game which was the highest opponent field goal percentage in their last four games. The Panthers have still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning three of their last four contests. They return home where they are 5-2 with an average winning margin of +8.9 PPG. They are holding their guests to just 40.8% shooting from the field — so they should play better defense in this one. Pitt has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. Additionally, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. The Tar Heels have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning two in a row. Furthermore, North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a win at home where both teams scored at least 75 points. After playing their last two games at home in Chapel Hill, they go back on the road where they are 4-5 where they are only outscoring their hosts by +1.4 PPG — and they make only 42.9% of their shots away from home. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games when favored by up to 6 points. Furthermore, North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after playing at home in their last two games. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these two teams crash the glass — North Carolina outrebounds their opponents by +11.4 Rebounds-Per-Game while Pitt outrebounds their opponents by +7.0 RPG. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG — and the Panthers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Panthers (620) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (619). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-24-21 |
Notre Dame v. Miami-FL -3 |
|
73-59 |
Loss |
-108 |
3 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (834) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (833). THE SITUATION: Miami (6-7) has lost two of their last three games after their 83-57 loss at Syracuse as a 3.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Notre Dame (4-8) snapped a four-game losing streak last Saturday with their 80-70 victory against Boston College as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS THE POINTS: Miami allowed the Orange to make 52.5% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort of the season. Head coach Jim Larranaga’s team should bounce-back as the Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games at home after a loss to a conference rival. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. They return home where they are 5-4 this season while holding their opponents to just 39.5% shooting which has resulted in just 64.2 PPG. Injuries have impacted the Hurricanes this season — this is a better team than their record. But this group is at full strength now and poised to make a run to try to make the NCAA Tournament. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on their home court. The Hurricanes only made 39.3% of their shots against Syracuse including just 4 of their 25 shots from behind the arc. Perhaps the Irish are just what the proverbial doctor ordered. Notre Dame ranks 212th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 12th in the ACC in that metric. They also allow their opponent to nail 38.0% of their 3-pointers, 308th in the nation. The Irish made 47.7% of their shots last Saturday against the Eagles in what was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a double-digit win at home. And while they converted on 14 of their 31 shots behind the arc last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after making at least 13 shots from 3-point land in their last game. The Fighting Irish may be rusty in this game with eight days off since last taking the court. Head coach Mike Brey’s team has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with at least seven games between games. They go back on the road where they are just 1-7 this season with an average losing margin of -7.7 PPG. The Irish are making only 41% of their 3-point attempts. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Miami (FL) is 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games at home as the favorite. 20* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (834) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (833). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-21 |
UC-Santa Barbara v. CS-Northridge +12 |
Top |
80-66 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the CS-Northridge Matadors (756) plus the points versus the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (755). THE SITUATION: CS-Northridge (5-5) looks to bounce-back from an embarrassing 105-58 loss home to the Gauchos yesterday as a 9.5-point underdog. UC-Santa Barbara (8-3) has won five games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MATADORS PLUS THE POINTS: I almost pulled the trigger on CS-Northridge yesterday but could not get confirmation on the status of their leading scorer, T.J. Starks, who is listed as questionable after not playing in their previous game at CS-Fullerton which ended in a 85-77 loss last Sunday. Thankfully, we avoided that train wreck as the Matadors (not Mustangs, Frank) allowed UC-Santa Barbara to make 60.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. CS-Northridge also only made 36.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. But the silver lining is that Starks returned to action and scored 29 points. The Texas A&M transfer just needs help tonight — and look for head coach Mike Gottfried to coax a much better effort from his team. The Matadors have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, CS-Northridge has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a home loss to a Big West opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Matadors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. CS-Northridge has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. UC-Santa Barbara enjoyed their best shooting night of the season with that 60.9% clip. And by holding the Matadors to 36.7% shooting, that was the Gauchos’ second-best defensive effort in their last nine games. But UC-Santa Barbara has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win on the road. The Gauchos have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 95 points in their last game. UC-Santa Barbara has still failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road (with last night being the exception) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games when laying 9.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: CS-Northridge has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games when avenging a loss by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. 25* CBB Big West Underdog of the Month with the CS-Northridge Matadors (756) plus the points versus the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (755). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-23-21 |
Montana v. CS Sacramento +3 |
|
83-89 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 2:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Sacramento State Hornets (650) plus the points versus the Montana Grizzlies (649). THE SITUATION: Sacramento State (5-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 78-66 loss to the Grizzlies on Thursday as a 3-point underdog. Montana (6-7) has won four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS PLUS THE POINTS: Sacramento State allowed the Grizzlies to make 49% of their shots in what was their worst defensive effort of the season. But the Hornets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a loss to a conference opponent. Sacramento State has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after losing two of their last three games. They stay at home where they are 4-1 this season with an average winning margin of +20.2 net PPG. The Hornets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning percentage at 40% or less on the road. Montana has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after winning four of their last five games. The Grizzlies have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing just their second game in seven days. Montana has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set at 129.5 or less. They are just 2-5 on the road with a shooting percentage of 42.3%. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Grizzlies have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Montana has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home. Sacramento State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 10* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but take the points) Underdog Special with the Sacramento State Hornets (650) plus the points versus the Montana Grizzlies (649). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-23-21 |
Eastern Washington -4 v. Northern Colorado |
Top |
82-76 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Eastern Washington Eagles (633) minus the points versus Northern Colorado Bears (634). THE SITUATION: Eastern Washington (3-6) has lost two games in a row after their 78-76 upset loss at Northern Colorado on Thursday as a 2.5-point favorite. Northern Colorado (8-6) has won three games in a row after that victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Eastern Washington should avenge that upset loss this afternoon. The Eagles are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Eastern Washington has also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when playing with one day of rest — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road playing their second game in three days. This will be an ornery group after suffering two straight upset losses after getting upset against Southern Utah last Saturday by a 99-94 score as a 5-point favorite. The Eagles are the reigning Big Sky champions who have two of the best players in the conference in Kim Aiken and preseason conference MVP Jacob Davison. This team embraced a very challenging non-conference schedule to begin the season with 3-point losses to Arizona and Washington State along with a 5-point loss to Saint Mary’s. But this team needs a conference win now. They allowed the Bears to make 46% of their shots which was the second-worst defensive effort of the season — after allowing Southern Utah to make 56.1% of their shots last Saturday — so a better defensive effort is likely. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row to Big Sky rivals. Eastern Washington has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after upsetting a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 after an upset win at home. And while the Bears have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. They host this game again but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. Northern Colorado has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: Eastern Washington has covered the point spread in 37 of their last 57 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when motivated by same-season revenge. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Game of the Month with the Eastern Washington Eagles (633) minus the points versus Northern Colorado Bears (634). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-19-21 |
Ball State v. Miami-OH +3.5 |
Top |
71-81 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (610) plus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (609). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (4-4) looks to rebound from their 78-61 loss at Ohio last Tuesday as a 9-point underdog. Ball State (6-5) has won their last two games after their 78-58 win against Northern Illinois on Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami allowed the Bobcats to make 57.4% of their shots last week which was their worst defensive mark of the season. The RedHawks made only 40.4% of their shots as well which was their lowest shooting percentage in their last three contests. Now having lost three of their last four games, this is a crucial game for head coach Jack Owens who is running out of time in his fourth year coaching the program. He has seen his team cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a double-digit loss to a Mid-American Conference rival. And while Miami has played their last two games Under the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after playing at least two straight Unders. Returning home will help where the RedHawks are 4-1 this season. Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 130s. They are also 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games as an underdog. This team leads the MAC in protecting their defensive glass as opponents only rebound 25.0% of their missed shots. The Redhawks also force turnovers in 21.1% of their conference opponent’s possessions which is also best in the MAC. The Cardinals can struggle in this area as they are turning the ball over in 18.6% of their possessions, 6th conference play. Ball State held the Huskies to just a 34.9% shooting mark on Saturday which was their best defensive performance of the season. But the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning two in a row against conference opponents. And while Ball State has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. Now this goes back on the road where they are just 3-4 this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Cardinals have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 road games when favored by 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Look for this to be a close game with the RedHawks in a position to win. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Underdog of the Month with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (610) plus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (609). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-16-21 |
Michigan v. Minnesota +6 |
Top |
57-75 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Minnesota Golden Gophers (645) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (646). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-4) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four after their 86-71 loss at Iowa as an 11.5-point underdog back last Sunday. Michigan (11-0) remained undefeated on Tuesday with their 77-54 thrashing of Wisconsin at home in Ann Arbor as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN GOPHERS PLUS THE POINTS: We had the Badgers on Tuesday but the Wolverines were on fire with a 51.6% field goal percentage in that game. Michigan also held Wisconsin to just a 30.8% field goal percentage which was their best defensive effort of the season. I thought the Wolverines were underrated to begin the season — and I continue to think that second-year head coach Juwan Howard is underappreciated. The Michigan alum is getting every ounce of talent out of his roster — just wait for when the five-star recruits start coming to Ann Arbor next fall. But this is not the most talented group of players in the Big Ten (or the State of Michigan). They have benefited from a soft early schedule where their 82-57 victory against these Golden Gophers at Crisler Arena on January 6th was their highest-profile victory before their win against the Badgers. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in five straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in five straight games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Now Michigan goes on the road for just the third time this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. The Wolverines went to the free-throw line only four times on Tuesday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not attempting more than seven free throws in their last game. Minnesota is 30th in the nation with a free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 41.5%. They average 26 free throw attempts per game — and Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games against teams who average at least 25 free throws per game. The Golden Gophers should respond with a big effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, Minnesota has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after a point spread loss. The Golden Gophers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a double-digit loss. Minnesota returns home where they are 10-0 with an average winning margin of +14.8 PPG. Not only do the Gophers score 85.5 PPG on their home court but they hold their guests to just a 37.8% field goal percentage — so expect the Wolverines to struggle to make baskets with the unique sightlines at Williams Arena. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home with the Total set in the 145.5 to 149.5 point range. The Gophers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games getting the points — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan is outscoring their opponents by +16.2 PPG — but Minnesota has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +8 PPG. The Golden Gophers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when avenging a loss where they gave up at least 75 points. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (645) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-16-21 |
Ohio State v. Illinois -6.5 |
|
87-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Illinois Fighting Illini (602) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (601). THE SITUATION: Illinois (9-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in their 66-63 upset loss at home to Maryland as a 10-point favorite. Ohio State (10-3) has won their last two games after their 81-71 win against Northwestern on Wednesday as an 8.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ILLINI MINUS THE POINTS: Illinois made only 41% of their shots against the Terrapins in what was their worst shooting effort of the season. They shoot the ball better this afternoon — they rank 11th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 57.9% — and they have the ninth-best offense in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency according to the metrics of Ken Pomeroy. The Illini have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss at home. They should be anxious to take the court again after their game with Nebraska was postponed because of a COVID outbreak within the Cornhuskers program. Illinois stays at home where they are 6-1 this season with an average winning margin of +23.4 PPG. They are making 50.9% of their shots at home which is generating 83.4 PPG — and they are holding their guests to just 36.1% shooting. The Illini are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games when favored — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a win against a Big Ten rival. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They go back on the road where they are just 3-3 this season while being outscored in those games. They are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Defense is an issue for head coach Chris Holtmann's team — they rank 60th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency by Pomeroy. And while they hold their opponents to 40.6% shooting, that mark rises to 45.6% in their road games.
FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points — and the Illini have covered a decisive 32 of their last 44 home games when laying 6.5 to 9 points. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Illinois Fighting Illini (602) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (601). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-13-21 |
Mercer v. Chattanooga +1.5 |
|
80-83 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the UT-Chattanooga Moccasins (668) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Mercer Bears (667). THE SITUATION: UT-Chattanooga (9-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 92-87 upset loss at The Citadel on Saturday as a 6-point underdog. Mercer (7-3) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four with their 83-80 loss at Furman as a 10.5-point underdog back on January 2nd.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOCCASINS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): UT-Chattanooga has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Moccasins have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games are a game on the road where both teams scored at least 75 points. They return home where they are 4-1 this season while making 48.1% of their shots. UT-Chattanooga has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games with the Total set in the 150 to 154.5 point range. The Moccasins have also covered the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games as an underdog including all three of their games this season when getting the points. UT-Chattanooga is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games as an underdog. Mercer has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. The Bears have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. Mercer made 55.6% of their shots against Furman which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. They stay on the road where they are favored — yet they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as a road favorite. And in their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: UT-Chattanooga has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 10* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the UT-Chattanooga Moccasins (668) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Mercer Bears (667). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-13-21 |
Auburn v. Georgia +2 |
Top |
95-77 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET Wednesday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (682) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Auburn Tigers (681). THE SITUATION: Georgia (7-3) has their last three games after falling to Arkansas on Saturday by a 99-69 score as a 5.5-point underdog. Auburn (6-6) has lost four games in a row with their 94-90 loss against Alabama on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The Bulldogs allowed the Razorbacks to make 52.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. Head coach Mike Crean was not happy with the effort of his team in that 30-point loss — so expect a more spirited effort with his team looking to win their first SEC game of the season. Georgia has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 30 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. Georgia returns home where they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games after losing at least three games in a row. They are 7-1 in Athens this season with an average winning margin of +13.1 net PPG. Crean’s team should play much better on defense as they limit their guests to just 40.7% shooting and 67.0 PPG. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Georgia should score plenty of easy baskets inside against the Tigers — they are 61st in the nation with a 53.9% shooting percentage inside the arc. Auburn allows their opponents to make 52.3% of their 2-pointers which is 242nd in the country. The Bulldogs also pull down 35.6% of their missed shots which is 20th in the nation. The Tigers have been bet into a small favorite as I write this — the likely logic is that their getting freshman Sharife Cooper eligible is a game-changer for this team. The 6’1 guard scored 26 points while adding 9 assists against the Crimson Tide. Yet the laptops still project the Bulldogs to win this game even with Cooper back in the mix. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They also have failed to cover the point spewed in 6 straight games after allowing at least 85 points. Auburn goes back on the road where they are 2-4 while making only 39.8% of their shots. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games away from home with the Total set in the 155 to 159.5 point range. Auburn has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog including 6 of their last 8 games at home as a dog. The Tigers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 25* CBB SEC Underdog of the Month with the Georgia Bulldogs (682) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Auburn Tigers (681). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-12-21 |
Wisconsin +4 v. Michigan |
|
54-77 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (615) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (616). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (10-2) has won two straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 80-73 win against Indiana in double-overtime as a 9-point favorite last Thursday. Michigan (10-0) remained unbeaten last Wednesday with their 82-57 win against Minnesota as an 8-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin outlasted the Hoosiers despite making only 42.4% of their shots which was their lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. The Badgers should continue their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win at home against a Big Ten rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning four of their last five games. Wisconsin’s win against Indiana came on the heels of their 71-59 win at home in Madison against the Golden Gophers team the Wolverines just beat. The Badgers have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two in a row on their home court. And while Wisconsin has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Head coach Greg Gard has a veteran team with five seniors who were all in the rotation for the group last year that tied for the Big Ten regular-season title. All five players are averaging at least 9.8 points-per-game this year. Now they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games away from home. Michigan has now covered the point spread in their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. Head coach Juwan Howard’s team has covered the point spread in seven of their last eight games — but that might be setting up this team to suffer a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Howard is a great coach — and this Wolverines team was undervalued in November and December. But now they are perhaps a tad overvalued. Eight of their ten games have been played at home. Using the Ken Pomeroy ratings, their best non-conference opponents were Central Florida while their best win was against the Golden Gophers in their last game. Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when laying up to 6 points. The Wolverines have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games with the total set in the 130 to 139.5 range.
FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin is battle-tested with victories against Louisville and Michigan State as well as that Minnesota team that is the feather in the Wolverines’ cap. The Badgers will be the best defensive team that Michigan will have played this year — and Wisconsin is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Expect a close game with the Badgers in a position to pull the upset (but take the points for some insurance). 10* CBB Wisconsin-Michigan ESPN Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (615) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (616). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-11-21 |
Colorado v. Utah +3 |
|
65-58 |
Loss |
-111 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
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At 6:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (864) plus the points versus Colorado Buffaloes (863). THE SITUATION: Utah (4-4) has lost three games in a row after their 79-73 loss to Oregon on Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. Colorado (8-3) has won two of their last three games after their 79-72 win against that Oregon team two earlier on Thursday as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES PLUS THE POINTS: The Utes’ loss to the Ducks came on the heels of them losing both games in their Los Angeles swing against UCLA and USC. Head coach Larry Krystowiak’s team needs a win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing two games in a row to conference rivals. And while Utah has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. They stay at home where they are 4-1 this season with an average winning margin of +14.0 PPG. They are making 47.1% of their shots on their home court while holding their opponents to just 38.9% shooting. They also are 49th in the nation by limiting their guests to just 26.8% shooting from behind the arc on their home court. The Buffaloes are taking 39.0% of their shots from 3-point land when playing away from Boulder. Utah is also good at applying pressure as they are generating turnovers in 22.8% of their opponent’s possessions which is 35th best in the country. The Utes have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on their home court — and then have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, Utah has covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 home games when playing their second game in three days. And in their last 57 home games with the Total set in the 135 to 139.5 point range, the Utes have covered the point spread in 36 of these contests. Colorado made 46% of their shots on Thursday in their win over the Ducks which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. The Buffaloes have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a victory against a Pac-12 foe. They go back on the road where they have lost all three of their games this season — and they are making only 43.8% of their shots away from home. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 55 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games when favored. The Buffaloes are allowing their last five opponents to make 47.3% of their shots. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Head coach Tad Boyle’s team leads the nation by making 85.6% of their free throws. Yet they are not likely to get many freebies on the charity stripe against this Utah team that is 12th in the nation with a defensive free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 22.6%. 10* CBB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Utah Utes (864) plus the points versus Colorado Buffaloes (863). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-09-21 |
Rider v. Niagara -5.5 |
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55-66 |
Win
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100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
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At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Niagara Purple Eagles (686) minus the points versus the Rider Broncs (685). THE SITUATION: Niagara (4-5) looks to rebound from getting upset at home last night to the Broncs by a 76-70 score as a 6.5-point favorite. Rider (3-7) won just their third game of the season with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PURPLE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Niagara has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread defeat. They stay at home for this game where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Rider made 54.7% of their shots last night which was their best shooting performance of the season. But they just 8-17-2 ATS in their last 27 games after a point spread win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. And they are only 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Rider has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and Niagara has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage not better than 40%. Look for the Purple Eagles to make some adjustments on defense this afternoon to avenge last night’s loss. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Niagara Purple Eagles (686) minus the points versus the Rider Broncs (685). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-08-21 |
Arkansas-Little Rock v. UL - Lafayette +3 |
Top |
64-66 |
Win
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100 |
6 h 47 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (848) plus the point(s) versus the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (847). THE SITUATION: UL-Louisiana (7-2) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 71-59 upset loss at home to Texas State as a 2.5-point favorite. Little Rock (6-3) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 75-62 win against UT-Arlington on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINT(S): Lafayette might have played their worst game of the season last Saturday. They made only 34.6% of their shots which was the second-lowest mark all season. They also allowed the Bobcats to hit 60% of their baskets which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have given up this year. The Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing their last opponent to shoot at least 60% from the field. Lafayette has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a game where they did not shoot better than 38% while allowing their opponent to nail at least 60% of their shots. The Ragin’ Cajuns have also bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss. Lafayette has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after getting upset by double-digits as a home favorite. They stay at home where they are 6-1 with an average winning margin of +6.4 PPG. They hold their opponents to just 40.8% shooting which is resulting in 68.6 PPG. The Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games at home with the Total set in the 150s. Lafayette does a good job of forcing turnovers — their opponents are coughing it up in 20.6% of their possessions which is 81st in the nation. This is a significant area of concern for the Trojans — they are 325th in the nation by turning the ball over in 24.7% of their possessions. Little Rock exposed a vulnerable Mavericks’ defense in their two-game swing last week. They made a whopping 70% of their shots against UT-Arlington in the opener before making 56.1% of their shots on Saturday in what was their best two shooting efforts of the season. And by holding the Mavericks to just 31.8% shooting, the Trojans played their best defensive game of the season. But the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning at least two straight games in a row at home. And while Little Rock has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after covering their last two games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with five or six days of rest. They go back on the road where they are just 1-3 this season while allowing their opponents to make 46.1% of their shots which is resulting in 77.0 PPG. The Trojans are 19th in the nation by making 39.4% of their 3-pointers — but that mark plummets to a 32.1% clip when playing away from their home court this season. Little Rock has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road with the total in the 150-154.5 point range. To compound matters, the Trojans may be without their best player in Markquis Nowell who is listed as doubtful with an undisclosed issue. He leads the team with a 17.0 PPG average while adding 8.9 Assists-Per-Game and 4.7 Rebounds-Per-Game.
FINAL TAKE: Little Rock is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and the Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Underdog of the Month with the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (848) plus the point(s) versus the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (847). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-06-21 |
Oklahoma v. Baylor -10.5 |
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61-76 |
Win
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100 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (696) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (695). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (9-0) remained unbeaten this season on Saturday with their 76-65 win at Iowa State as a 15.5-point favorite. Oklahoma (6-2) has won four of their last five games with their 75-71 win against West Virginia on Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: I think Baylor is undervalued in these spots after coming off one of their worst efforts of the season on Saturday. Baylor did not make a 3-pointer in the first half against the Cyclones before setting for 4 of 19 shooting mark from behind the arc. The Bears shot 47.3% from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Baylor is third in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while making 43.8% of their 3-pointers which is the second-best mark in the nation. They also allowed Iowa State to make 48.1% of their shots which was the second-highest opponent field goal percentage they surrendered all season (and worst since their opening game). Head coach Scott Drew’s team is 5th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, Baylor has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least 10 points against Big 12 foes. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. And while the Sooners raced out to a 38-20 lead at halftime, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after owning a lead of at least 15 points in their last game. I don’t like this matchup for Oklahoma under head coach Lon Kruger who emphasizes offense over defense. The Sooners are 21st in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with their three-guard attack — but this will be the best defensive team they will have faced this season. But Oklahoma ranks 64th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while allowing their opponents to make 39.6% of their 3-pointers which is the 320th mark in the nation. Baylor scores 92.9 PPG — and the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams who score at least 77 PPG. Oklahoma has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams who shoot at least 45% from the field.
FINAL TAKE: Baylor will overwhelm the Sooners’ with their offense playing on their home court — and their defense will make it hard for Oklahoma to keep up. The Bears have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Baylor has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored. 10* CBB Oklahoma-Baylor ESPN2 Special with the Baylor Bears (696) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (695). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-06-21 |
St. John's v. Xavier -6.5 |
Top |
61-69 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Xavier (688) minus the points versus the St. John’s (687). THE SITUATION: Xavier (8-2) has lost their last two games after their 85-68 upset loss as a 3-point favorite last Wednesday. St. John’s (6-4) snapped a three-game losing streak back on December 20th with their 94-83 win against Georgetown as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MUSKETEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Xavier made only 43.1% of their shots which was tied for the third-worst shooting effort this season. The Musketeers had covered the point spread in five straight games before that loss to the Pirates. Xavier has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in at least four of their last five games. The Musketeers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Xavier now returns home where they are 7-1 this season with an average winning margin of +12.3 PPG. The Musketeers are making 50.2% of their shots at home which is generating 83.0 PPG. They are also holding their opponents to just 39.7% of their shots when playing on their home court. Xavier matches up quite well against the Red Storm who deploy head coach Mike Anderson’s “40 minutes of hell” full-court press. St. John’s is 29th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.5% of their possessions. But the Musketeers get good guard play from seniors Paul Scruggs and Nate Johnson. Xavier only turns the ball over in 16.0% of their possessions which is 37th best in the nation. They have not turned the ball over more than 11 times in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not turning the ball over more than 11 times in their last four. If and when the Musketeers break the Red Storm press, they should torch their defense. St. John’s has an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 56.7% which is 325th in the nation — and they are allowing their opponents to make 39.6% of their 3-pointers. Xavier has an eFG of 55.9% which is 25th in the country — and they are making 37.2% of their 3-pointers which is 51st in the nation. St. John’s has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win over a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit victory against a Big East foe. The Red Storm shot 47.6% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five games while making 13 of their 29 shots from behind the arc. But St. John’s has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after making at least 13 shots from 3-point land in their last game. The Red Storm also held the Hoyas to just 43.5% shooting which was their second-best scoring effort in their last eight games. Anderson’s team may be rusty in this game having not played in 17 days. They go back on the road where they have lost three of their four games while allowing their home hosts to make 50% of their shots. St. John’s have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Red Storm have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and Xavier has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Xavier (688) minus the points versus the St. John’s (687). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-05-21 |
Kansas -5.5 v. TCU |
Top |
93-64 |
Win
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100 |
7 h 28 m |
Show
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At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (639) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (640). THE SITUATION: Kansas (8-2) had won eight games in a row before losing at home to Texas on Saturday by an 84-59 score as a 4.5-point favorite. TCU (9-2) has won five straight contests after their 67-60 win at Kansas State on Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas played their worst game of the season on Saturday. They made only 30.8% of their shots from the field including missing 20 of their 23 shots from behind the arc. That 30.8% field goal percentage was their lowest mark of the season. They also allowed the Longhorns to make 49.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. Kansas has an opponent’s field goal percentage of 40.5% so they should play better tonight. Head coach Bill Self has been remarkably reliable in getting his team to respond with good efforts after bad losses. The Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 9 straight games after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 10 points against a conference rival. Additionally, Kansas is a dominant 43-19-3 ATS in their last 65 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread setback. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to score at least 60 points in their last game. Perhaps the Jayhawks were primed for a letdown after defeating two ranked teams in Texas Tech and West Virginia in their previous two games. Now they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 130s. Kansas has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. TCU is 4-2 at home this season — but with just a +4.8 net points-per-game differential. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set in the 135.5 to 139.5 point range. Additionally, the Horned Frogs have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a win over a Big 12 opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread victory. TCU has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games at home after winning at least two games in a row. The Horned Frogs’ best win this season was against Oklahoma State — their losses were against Providence and Oklahoma. Head coach Jamie Dixon’s team is perhaps best at defending the arc — they are holding opponents to just a 28.2% shooting percentage from 3-point land which is 41st in the nation. But Self’s team is not reliant on 3-pointers — they only take 36.2% of their shots from behind the arc which is the 206th most reliant on 3s in the nation. Kansas should dominate the interior in this game with their size — the Horned Frogs allow their opponents to make 49.6% of their shots inside the arc which is 160th. The Jayhawks should also get plenty of second-chance opportunities. Kansas pulls down 35.1% of their missed shots which is 31st in the nation — and TCU ranks 150th by allowing their opponents to pull down 27.1% of their misses.
FINAL TAKE: Marcus Garrett is questionable for Kansas after suffering a head injury against Texas -- Self said he seemed good yesterday (but would be a game-time decision). The point guard is solid but his potential absence is not devastating for this balanced Jayhawks team. TCU is not in Kansas’ league — they rank 76th and 60th in the nation in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency while the Jayhawks rank 36th and 19th in those metrics. Kansas has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Horned Frogs would be more dangerous as a home dog in this spot if they were playing in front of a packed gym full of fans. Alas … 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Game of the Month with the Kansas Jayhawks (639) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-04-21 |
West Virginia v. Oklahoma State |
|
87-84 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 4 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (873) minus the point(s) versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (874). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (8-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 75-71 loss at Oklahoma as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. Oklahoma State (7-2) snapped a two-game losing streak on Saturday with their 82-77 win in overtime at Texas Tech as an 8-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Cowboys are a young team with intriguing talent led by freshman Cade Cunningham who might be the first player taken in the next NBA draft. But one of the biggest concerns for young teams is consistency. Upsetting the Red Raiders is Oklahoma State’s best win on their resume so far this season — but they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with one or fewer days of rest. They return home where they are 3-1 this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court. Their game with Texas Tech was their first contest since December 20th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when playing not more than their second game in eight days. West Virginia made only 40% of their shots against the Sooners which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. Head coach Bob Huggins’ team should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing their game on the road in three days. The Mountaineers’ have a style of play that travels well since they do so many things to generate more shooting opportunities if their shots are not falling. West Virginia is 17th in the nation by pulling down 37.6% of their missed shots. They also force turnovers in 20.5% of their opponent’s possessions which is 72nd in the country. “Press Virginia” should have success against the Cowboys who can be loose with the ball — they are turning the ball over in 19.1% of their possessions which is 147th in the nation. Huggins is dealing with a significant roster shakeup with the loss of Oscar Tshiebwe and Isaiah Cottrell for the season. Cottrell is their top-rated freshman but who was not playing much coming off the bench to offer depth at forward. Tsheibwe leaving the team for personal reasons is more disruptive as he formed a potentially awesome twin-tower front line with forward Derek Culver. That said, Tsheibwe was playing less than 20 minutes-per-game while not producing as much as he did in his freshman season. Huggins has a deep roster — and I suspect the loss will create the opportunity for even more full-court pressure. West Virginia still has a size edge over Oklahoma State with Culver down low.
FINAL TAKE: The Mountaineers were competitive against Gonzaga and Kansas in their other two losses this season. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as an underdog getting no more than 6 points. 10* CBB West Virginia-Oklahoma State ESPN2 Special with the West Virginia Mountaineers (873) minus the point(s) versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (874). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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