12-09-23 |
Northern Illinois +1.5 v. Monmouth |
|
71-74 |
Loss |
-120 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (625) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Monmouth Hawks (626). THE SITUATION: Northern Illinois (5-3) has lost two games in a row after their 90-67 loss to Indiana State as a 7-point underdog on Tuesday. Monmouth (4-4) returns to the court after losing their second straight game in a 91-87 loss at Cornell as a 12.5-point underdog on November 29th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINT(S): Northern Illinois only made 39.1% of their shots against the Sycamores in what was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contests. But the Huskies have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a straight-up loss at home in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 road games after a double-digit loss at home. They also allowed Indiana State to make 52.4% of their shots in what was the second-worst defensive effort of their season. Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after allowing 80 or more points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 90 or more points in their last contest. The Huskies are battle-tested already with losses to Marquette, Northwestern (who upset Purdue), and the Sycamores who all rank in the top-60 according Ken Pomeroy’s advanced analytics. They also beat an Appalachian State team that upset Auburn. Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Monmouth nailed 53.3% of their shots against the Big Red which was the best shooting effort of the season — but they may be rusty in their return to the court with a week and a half between games. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after losing two or more games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: Monmouth has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games as a favorite or pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a pick ‘em or a favorite of up to six points. And in their last 23 home games with the Total set in the 150s, the Hawks have failed to cover the point spread 17 times. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Northern Illinois Huskies (625) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Monmouth Hawks (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-09-23 |
Purdue v. Alabama +6.5 |
|
92-86 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 1:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (622) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (621). THE SITUATION: Alabama (6-2) enters this game coming off an 89-65 win against Arkansas State as a 25-point favorite on Monday. Purdue (8-1) rebounded from their loss at Northwestern with an 87-68 victory against Iowa as a 13.5-point favorite on Monday. This game is being played on a neutral favorite at the Coca-Cola Coliseum in Toronto, Ontario.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE PLUS THE POINTS: I don’t think the market is giving enough respect to this Alabama team after they got upset by Ohio State and Clemson earlier this season. Head coach Nate Oaks is still working out some chemistry issues with two transfers coming in, Aaron Estrada from Hofstra and Grant Nelson from North Dakota State, adjusting to his analytics-driven 3-pointer or shoot-at-the-rim tendencies. The Crimson Tide have also struggled with their defense — but they should get better as the season moves on. This is a big opportunity to make a statement against one of the top teams in the country. Alabama has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a win by 15 or more points. The Crimson Tide ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank 10th in the nation by making 40.9% of their shots from behind the arc — and they are taking 3s in 42.8% of their shots from the field, the 64th most aggressive rate from 3-point land. After making 11 shots from distance in their loss to Clemson, they nailed 13 shots from 3-point range against the Red Wolves — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after hitting 10 or more shots from behind the arc in two or more games in a row. Many consider Purdue the best team in the country after beating Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Marquette in the Maui Invitational — but they demonstrated their vulnerabilities in their loss at Northwestern last week. While they did follow that up with a 19-point win against the Hawkeyes, Purdue has then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a win on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a win at home by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a win by 15 or more points. And while the Boilermakers have covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contest. Head coach Matt Painter has his team playing at a faster pace this season after his team was upset by Fairleigh Dickinson in the NCAA Tournament last March. After playing at one of the slowest paces in the nation, Purdue is shooting quicker this season — and their adjusted possessions per game of 70.0 ranks 129th in the nation. While this adjustment should help them avoid getting upset by potential Cinderellas in the Big Dance, the Boilermakers are still vulnerable to teams like Alabama that maximize efficiency on offense. Purdue is making 39.7% of their 3-pointers — but they only take 35.9% of their shots from 3-point range, ranking 216th in the nation. The Total set is set in the 160s with the Boilermakers playing at the faster pace — and this plays into the Crimson Tide’s style of play as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games with the Total set in the 160s.
FINAL TAKE: Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 36 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. 10* CBB Purdue-Alabama Fox-TV Special with the Alabama Crimson Tide (622) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (621). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-23 |
Indiana v. Michigan -6.5 |
|
78-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (648) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (647). THE SITUATION: Michigan (4-4) has lost two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after their 86-83 loss in overtime at Oregon as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. Indiana (6-1) has won three games in a row as well as six of their last seven contests after their 65-53 win at home against Maryland as a 2-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan was expected to take a step back this season after losing Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin to the first round of the NBA draft along with Hunter Dickinson transferring to Kansas. But despite all that talent, the chemistry of that team was not great. The Wolverines missed going to the NCAA Tournament with an 18-16 final record — their season was defined by a rough 4-13 record in games decided by six points or less. Head coach Juwan Howard brought in several impact transfers to help restructure the identity of his team. Olivier Nkamhoua comes in from Tennessee to develop his post-up play from Howard after being a contributor for the Volunteers for four years. He scored 27 points against Duke in the NCAA Tournament last season — and his defense is needed for this team. Nimari Burnett is a former McDonald’s All-American with immense talent who has been slowed by injuries while playing at Texas Tech and then Alabama. Dug McDaniel has stepped in as a big-time scorer at point guard for this team in his sophomore season after his trial-by-fire last season. He scored 30 points in the loss to the Ducks — that was a heartbreaker with Oregon nailing a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to win that game. Michigan has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where both teams scored 80 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. Furthermore, while they have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five contests. This is the Wolverines’ second game since November 24th — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when playing for the second time in eight days. They return home for the first time since getting upset by Fresno State in their first loss of the season — but they are nailing 52.3% of their shots at home which has resulted in 92.3 Points-Per-Game. Michigan has played a difficult schedule with three of their losses against Memphis, Texas Tech, and Oregon being against teams that rank in the top-52 in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. Pomeroy’s metrics rank the Wolverines schedule as the 27th most difficult in the nation. The Hoosiers, on the other hand, rank just 230th in the nation according to Pomeroy in their non-conference schedule. Indiana held the Terrapins to just 35.7% shooting which was tied for the lowest opponent field goal percentage so far this season. The Hoosiers have covered the point spread in their last two games as the favorite — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering two or more games in a row as the favorite. Indiana lost four of their top five players from last year’s team that reached the Round of 32 in the Big Dance — and head coach Mike Woodson leaned on the transfer portal as well to replenish his roster. By adding 7’0 Kel-El Ware from Oregon, Indiana measures as the fifth tallest team in the nation — but the Wolverines rank 67th in size according to that metric. Despite their big frontline, the Hoosiers are only pulling down 27.0% of their missed shots, ranking 246th in the nation. Defensive rebounding has been a problem for Michigan as they rank 243rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 31.7% of their missed shots. Defending the perimeter has also been a problem for the Wolverines with their opponents making 39.4 of their 3-pointers, the 343rd worst mark in the nation. But Indiana ranks 350th in the nation by making only 25.0% of their 3-pointers. And while the Hoosiers rank fourth in the nation in getting to the free throw line, the Wolverines rank 39th in the nation in defensive free throw rate. This is not a good matchup for the Hoosiers.
FINAL TAKE: Indiana is playing their first true road game of the season tonight after playing three games on neutral courts. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em. Michigan has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as a favorite against Big Ten opponents. 10* CBB Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with the Michigan Wolverines (648) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (647). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-29-23 |
Tennessee +2.5 v. North Carolina |
|
92-100 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (677) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (678). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (4-2) has lost two games in a row after their 69-60 loss to Kansas as a 1.5-point underdog in the Maui Invitational last Wednesday. North Carolina (5-1) rebounded from their overtime loss to Villanova in the Battle 4 Atlantis with an 87-72 win against Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite in that tournament on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee faced a gauntlet in the Maui Invitational with a victory against Syracuse before losing to Purdue and then the Jayhawks — two teams that rank in the top-eight teams in the nation using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. Pomeroy ranks their schedule as the 15th most difficult in the nation so far this season. They should play better tonight even against a very good Tar Heels team. Their 31.0% shooting percentage against Kansas was their worst shooting effort of the season. And while the Jayhawks’ 51.9% shooting percentage was the highest opponent’s shooting percentage against them this season, they still rank number one in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency using Pomeroy’s metrics. The Volunteers only made 33.3% of their shot against the Boilermakers — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to make at least 37% of their shots in two straight games. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 55 of their last 88 games after losing two games in a row. And while they did not cover the point spread in those final two games in Maui, Tennessee has then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight contests. North Carolina nailed 49.1% of their shots against the Razorbacks which was the best shooting effort in their last five contests. The Tar Heels have scored at least 81 points in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. And while this is their third game since last Thursday, they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when playing for at least the third time in the last seven days. This is not a great matchup for this North Carolina team that may be without starter Cormac Ryan who missed the Arkansas game with an ankle injury. The Volunteers launch 41.3% of their shots from behind the arc — and the Tar Heels rank 312th in allowing open 3s. North Carolina is making 36.9% of their shots from 3-point range — but now they face a Tennessee team that ranks 27th in the nation with their opponents making only 26.7% of their 3-pointers. The Tar Heels only make 51.2% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 157th in the nation. And while North Carolina plays at a fast pace and averages 62 shots per game, the Volunteers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams who average 62 or more shots per game. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games in November — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Pomeroy ranks North Carolina’s schedule as the 127th most difficult so far this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record. And while Tennessee is outscoring their opponents by +12.2 net Points-Per-Game, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. 10* CBB Tennessee-North Carolina ESPN Special with the Tennessee Volunteers (677) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (678). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-23 |
Boise State +2.5 v. Virginia Tech |
|
75-82 |
Loss |
-107 |
2 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (775) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (776) in the ESPN Events Invitational. THE SITUATION: Boise State (2-1) looks to bounce back from their 85-68 loss at Clemson as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday. Virginia Tech (3-1) has won two games in a row with their 98-76 victory against Wofford as an 18-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Field House in Kissimmee, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: This is an “In Leon Rice, I Trust” situation after Boise State lost their first game of the season. The head coach has led his team to the NCAA Tournament in two straight seasons — and he has three starters back from that group. Losing point guard Marcus Shaver to graduation is a big loss — but Rice has several players auditioning to take on those responsibilities. Rice also hit the transfer portal by bringing in Cam Martin from Kansas and O’Mar Stanley from St. John’s to offer this team great depth. They got burned on the road at Clemson because the Tigers nailed 8 of their 15 shots from 3-point range en route to their 50.8% shooting clip. Rice has overseen a top-30 defense in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the previous two seasons — and opponents made only 31.2% of their shots from behind the arc last year so their perimeter defense should tighten up tonight. Boise State did limit a solid San Francisco team to just 4 of 19 shooting (21.0%) from behind the arc earlier this month so the Clemson game may have simply been an aberration in this young season. The Dons rank 79th in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. The Broncos are usually very tough when defending their defensive glass — they have ranked 17th and 11th in the nation in the previous two seasons in Defensive Rebounding Rate. So far this season, Boise State is allowing their opponents to pull down 31.7% of their missed shots, ranking 238th in the nation after the Tigers pulled down 41.9% of their missed shots. The Broncos got outrebounded by a 40-25 margin in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 31 games after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Virginia Tech has benefited from an easy schedule with their victory against Wofford being the best line on their resume so far this season — the Terriers rank 256th in the nation according to Pomeroy. Their most challenging opponent was South Carolina who they lost to on a neutral court by two points. This is the Hokies second game in the last eight days — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when playing for the second time in eight days. I have two overriding concerns about this team. First, while the strength of this team is their backcourt, the X-factor for this team was the development of Rodney Rice who surprised the program with his decision to transfer earlier this month. Virginia Tech still has a nice backcourt led by Sean Padulla and Hunter Cattoor — but it was their priced top recruit in 2022 in Rice who had the potential to be a go-to scorer with his upside in athleticism. Secondly, the Hokies underachieved last season by going 8-12 in the ACC primarily because of the substandard play of their defense — they ranked 139th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. While head coach Mike Young knows that the play of his defense must improve, they only rank 122nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency despite a strength of schedule that Pomeroy ranks as the 347th most difficult. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road after a win by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after winning two or more games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: The Hokies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in Tournament play. Boise State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140-144.5 range — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or as an underdog of up to three points. 10* CBB Boise State-Virginia Tech ESPNU Special with the Boise State Broncos (775) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (776). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-21-23 |
Kansas v. Marquette +4.5 |
|
59-73 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Marquette Golden Eagles (658) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (657) in the semifinals of the Maui Invitational. THE SITUATION: Marquette (4-0) advanced in this tournament with their 71-69 victory against UCLA as a 5.5-point favorite yesterday. Kansas (4-0) had the easiest opening-round draw as they beat the host Chaminade team in an 83-56 victory yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the SimpliFi Arena at the Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, Hawai’i.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Marquette will enter this game with confidence after beating two very good teams in a row in Illinois and then the Bruins yesterday. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a victory by three points or less. Head coach Shaka Smart’s teams have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 road games after a win by three points or less. Marquette returns almost every contributor except big man Olivier-Maxence Prosper from last year’s group that won both the Big East regular season title and the Big East tournament — that team finished tenth in the nation in Ken Pomeroy’s final rankings using his metrics. This is an experienced and tough team led by perhaps the best point guard in the nation by senior Tyler Kolek. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with one day or less of rest — and Smart’s teams have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 road games when playing for the second time in three days. Marquette has covered the point spread in 42 of their last 62 road games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games as an underdog. Kansas has beaten Kentucky already this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning four or more games in a row. The Jayhawks have assisted on at least 22 made field goals in all four of their games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after posting 19 or more team assists in their last contest. They have held all four of their opponents to 35.1% or lower shooting from the field — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after holding three straight opponents to no higher than 40% shooting and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding four straight opponents to 40% or lower shooting. Kansas has been impressive with Michigan transfer Hunter Dickinson playing great for his new team — but depth is an issue for this team which will now be tested playing without a day of rest. The Jayhawks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games when playing for the second time in three days or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games in November.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas lost to the same Fighting Illini team that Marquette beat by seven points — and while that was an exhibition game, head coach Bill Self did play his starters in that nationally televised game. The Jayhawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 150s — and the Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games with the Total set in the 150-159.5 point range. 10* CBB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Marquette Golden Eagles (658) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (657). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-07-23 |
Auburn -1 v. Baylor |
|
82-88 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (615) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (616). THE SITUATION: Auburn (0-0) tips off their season after losing to Houston by an 81-64 score in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament on March 18th. Baylor (0-0) lost in the Round of 32 the next day in an 85-76 loss to Creighton. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: This Baylor team projects to be very good — they begin the season ranked 9th in the nation using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. But it will likely take some time for this team to develop chemistry. Head coach Scott Drew claims that he has “never had so many new players” on a squad. This will not be a problem when they play John Brown on Thursday (the school, not a guy) — but opening up against an Auburn team that Pomeroy ranks as the 16th-best team in the nation is a challenge. The Bears have an entirely new backcourt after Keonte George got drafted by the Utah Jazz and Adam Flagler got signed by Oklahoma City as an undrafted free agent. Baylor also lost L.J. Cryer who transferred to Houston. While those players were great scorers, they were liabilities on the defensive end of the court. The Bears ranked 107th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their small backcourt was one of the problems. Drew is likely to get his team back to playing better defense — but he may have to sacrifice too much offensive production to do so. Much is being asked of RayJ Dennis who transferred from Toledo where he won the Mid-American Conference Player of the Year — but playing elite teams from Power Five conferences is a major step up in competition. Drew needs immediate offensive production from freshman Ja’Kobe Walter who is an uber-talented wing but will be asked to score right away. Interior defense was also an issue last season — the Bears ranked 348th in the nation in defending shots at the rim. Opponents made 53.5% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 315th in the country — and opponents pulled down 30.9% of their missed shots, ranking 293rd in the nation. Drew’s front-court rotation is roughly the same — so these issues likely remain a problem. Baylor’s style of play is described as a Gambling Giant: they shoot lots of 3s, they crash the offensive glass, they focus on perimeter defense — but they sacrifice defensive rebounding to accomplish these tasks. Everything is a tradeoff — and these teams tend to struggle against styles of play described as Slow Killers. Enter the Tigers coached by Bruce Pearl who has had great success with precisely this approach. Slow Killers want to lull a game to a crawl’s pace while they focus on offensive rebounding and defending against the 3-point shot. The Tigers ranked 6th in the nation by holding their opponents to making only 28.6% of their opponent’s shots. They also ranked 49th in the nation by pulling down 32.8% of their missed shots. John Broome and Dylan Cardwell both return from last year to give Pearl a two-headed monster at the center with one of them on the court at almost all times. Jaylin Williams is a 6’8, 230-lb fifth-year senior coming off his best season — and there is plenty of forward depth that should ensure that the frontcourt remains imposing once again this year. The key to this Auburn team will be the play of their backcourt which has struggled with shot selection the last two seasons. Wendell Green is gone to the NBA G-League. KD Johnson returns with Pearl hoping he is ready to make a jump in development. But it is Denver Jones and Aden Holloway who raise the ceiling of potential for this squad. Jones transfers in from Florida International where he scored more than 20 Points-Per-Game as a sophomore. Holloway is a five-star freshman regarded as one of the best shooters in the national class. If the backcourt is improved, then the Tigers should be even better this season.
FINAL TAKE: If styles make fights, I like Pearl versus Drew in this opening contest for both teams. Baylor averaged 26 shots from behind the arc last season — and Auburn has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games against teams who launch 21 or more 3-pointers per game. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher — and while that is not this Bears team yet, that is their projection. 10* CBB Auburn-Baylor ESPN Special with the Auburn Tigers (615) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (616). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-03-23 |
San Diego State v. Connecticut -7 |
Top |
59-76 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (712) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (711) in the National Championship Game of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UConn (30-8) has won five games in a row — and 11 of their last 12 — after their 72-59 victory against Miami (FL) as a 6-point favorite on Saturday. San Diego State (32-6) has won nine games in a row after their 72-71 win against Florida Atlantic as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at NRG Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: UConn has been a freight train in the Big Dance with all five of their victories by 13 or more points. They dominated a well-coached Hurricanes despite Jordan Hawkins dealing with a stomach bug and Andre Jackson, Jr. only playing 22 minutes due to foul trouble. Both players are primed for big games tonight. Jim Larranaga did not have many answers to slow down the Huskies — and now San Diego State head coach Brian Dutcher has 48 hours to address this conundrum. UConn demonstrated their vast potential in the fall — and after hitting a couple of bumps early in Big East play, they are steamrolling teams again. The Huskies have covered 16 straight games against non-conference opponents with an average winning margin of +24.7 points per game — and they have covered the point spread by +11.9 points per game in those 16 contests. There is a logic to that success. Head coach Dan Hurley feels his team is particularly difficult to prepare against — especially if the team lacks familiarity with the Huskies approach. As Gonzaga head coach Mark Few said after their 28-point loss to UConn last weekend, only 48 hours to prepare his team to play UConn was overwhelming. Handling Adama Sanoga’s post-up game is a chore — and then Donovan Clingan presents an entirely different challenge in the lob game. Defending Hawkins coming off the Huskies’ multiple off-ball sets and screens is demanding. Jackson presents a challenge in his role as a point forward. UConn has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning their four previous games by double-digits. Their floor for scoring in this game is probably at least 68 points — they have reached that number in ten straight games while scoring at least 82 points six times in that stretch. But is the play of the Huskies’ defense that is even more impressive. They held the Hurricanes to just 32% shooting and below 60 points despite them ranking sixth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They stymied Gonzaga to just 54 points despite the Bulldogs leading the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Now they play an Atzecs team that is susceptible to scoring droughts. San Diego State has scored no more than 75 points in ten straight games — and they have scored 64 or fewer points in six of those contests. They are only making 33.3% of their 3-pointers in this tournament — so a hot shooting night from outside the arc is unlikely. The Aztecs take many of their shots from the midrange — and now they play a UConn team that ranks sixth in the nation by holding their last ten opponents on the road to 42.9% shooting inside the arc. The Aztecs are the first team in NCAA Tournament history to win their Elite Eight game and then their Final Four game by just one point. They have endured a difficult schedule — but they have been good matchups for them since FAU, Alabama, Creighton, Furman, and the College of Charleston all live (and die) by their 3-point shooting. While UConn is a good 3-point shooting team, they probably have the most reliable scoring threats inside the arc that San Diego State will have played. Sanoga shoots 63.9% from inside the arc — and Clingon makes 65.9% of his 2-point shots. Jackson makes 54.1% of his shots inside the arc — and starter Alex Karaban makes 59.8% of his 2-pointers. The Aztecs have dug themselves into several holes in this tournament — but they used their defense and offensive rebounding to climb back against Alabama, Creighton, and FAU. Not only does UConn have reliable scoring options to stop scoring slumps but they also rank 67th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding 25.9% of their missed shots. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by three points or less. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning six or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning nine or more games in a row. UConn has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court. They hold their opponents to 40.1% shooting while making 46.5% of their shots. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 42% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams who make at least 45% of their shots while holding their opponents to 42% or lower shooting.
FINAL TAKE: UConn is the sixth team in the history of the NCAA Tournament to win their first five games in the tournament by 13 or more points. Four of those previous five teams then went on to win the Championship Game by double-digits: Michigan State won by 13 points in 2000; Duke won by 10 points in 2001; North Carolina won by 17 points in 2009; Villanova won by 17 points in 2018. The 2016 Tar Heels were the lone team to lose in the Championship Game after beating their first five opponents by 13 or more points — and they played a Villanova team with more balance and scoring threats than this Aztecs’ group. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year with the Connecticut Huskies (712) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (711). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-01-23 |
Miami-FL v. Connecticut -5 |
Top |
59-72 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (704) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (703) in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UConn (29-8) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 82-54 win against Gonzaga as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Miami (FL) (29-7) has won six of their last seven games after their 88-81 upset victory against Texas a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at NRG Stadium in Houston.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: The Hurricanes nailed 59.2% of their shots against the Longhorns in what was the best shooting effort in their last 20 games. Miami (FL) has pulled off three straight upsets against Indiana, Houston, and then Texas while scoring at least 85 points and making at least 48.6% of their shots in each of those games. But the Hurricanes only make 46.6% of their shots away from home which generates 76.2 Points-Per-Game — so I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods for this team. As it is, Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. When playing away from home, the Hurricanes score -2.9 fewer points per 100 possessions. But of even greater concern is their defense which ranks just 104th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Miami’s interior defense is the biggest weakness of the team. They allow their opponents to make 51.6% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 246th in the nation. Now they face a Huskies team with head coach Dan Hurley rotating Adama Sanogo with Donovan Clingan in the middle to ensure the team always has a reliable scorer down low. UConn makes 53.6% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 50th in the nation. They only made 41.7% of their shots against the Bulldogs on Saturday — so their 28-point victory could have been even worse. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a win by 20 or more points. Furthermore, UConn has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. And while they put up 88 points in their Sweet Sixteen game against Arkansas, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring 80 or more points in two straight games. UConn should slow down the Hurricanes' offensive attack since they rank 8th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they rank 8th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road in their last ten games. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 15 games against teams outside the Big East.
FINAL TAKE: Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games on a neutral court when listed as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. UConn has offered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on a neutral court as a favorite or a pick ‘em. 25* CBB Final Four Game of the Year with the Connecticut Huskies (704) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (703). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-01-23 |
Florida Atlantic v. San Diego State -1.5 |
|
71-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 6:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (702) minus the points versus the Florida Atlantic Owls (701) in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: San Diego State (31-6) has won eight games in a row after their 57-56 upset win against Creighton as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Florida Atlantic (35-3) has won 11 games in a row after their 79-76 upset victory against Kansas State as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at NRG Stadium in Houston.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS MINUS THE POINTS: FAU looks to pull off a third straight upset victory after stunning Tennessee and then the Wildcats last week. They made 48.1% of their shots against Kansas State which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. They also outrebounded the Wildcats by a 44-22 margin — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after outrebounding their previous opponent by 20 or more boards. FAU scores -4.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home as well. And they are very dependent on making 3-point shots with 44.0% of their shots from the field coming from behind the arc, ranking 35th in the nation. They are a similar but not quite as dynamic opponent as Alabama — and the Aztecs coaxed the Crimson Tide into missing 24 of their 27 shots from 3-point range in the Sweet Sixteen and a 32.4% field goal percentage overall. Alabama ranked 344th in the nation in terms of consistency from game to game going into that contest with San Diego State — and FAU is not much better with their consistency rating being 219th in the nation. The Aztecs usually have a strong defense — but this year’s team has taken things to another level. They have not allowed more than 64 points in eight straight games. The Bluejays made 40% of their shots against them which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have surrendered in eight games with their previous six opponents not making more than 38.6% of their shots against them. San Diego State will slow the pace to a crawl — using “math” to their advantage by limiting FAU’s scoring chances and letting the pressure of the moment kick in for this mid-major Cinderella. The Aztecs are loaded with experience with three seniors and two juniors in the starting lineup with depth on the bench. Despite their opponents attempting 40.1% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 282nd in the nation, these shots are only falling at a 27.8% rate which is the second-best mark in the nation. In their last ten games on the road, not only does San Diego State hold their opponents to 22.2% shooting from behind the arc, they lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Owls average 10 made 3s per game — and the Aztecs have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after 15 games into the season against teams averaging 8 or more made 3s per game. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. The Aztecs usually have a strong defense — but this year’s team has taken things to another level. They have not allowed more than 64 points in eight straight games. The Bluejays made 40% of their shots against them which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have surrendered in eight games with their previous six opponents not making more than 38.6% of their shots against them.
FINAL TAKE: San Diego State is a physical team that brings elite-level defense into this game — and that is the most reliable dynamic in this game. They are 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games played on a neutral court. 10* CBB FAU-San Diego State CBS-TV Special with the San Diego State Aztecs (702) minus the points versus the Florida Atlantic Owls (701). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-30-23 |
UAB -1.5 v. North Texas |
|
61-68 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (665) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (666) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: UAB (29-9) has won four in a row — and 12 of their last 13 contests — after their 88-86 win in overtime as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. North Texas (30-7) has won four in a row — and seven of their last eight contests — with their 56-54 win against Wisconsin as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: UAB outlasted the Wolverines on Tuesday despite them making 41.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last opponent to score 85 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. UAB scores +1.1 points per 100 possessions when on the road versus when they are playing at home. UAB has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. North Texas has held all four of their opponents in the NIT to no higher than 37.9% shooting after the Badgers only made 37.5% of their shots against them — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after holding three or more opponents in a row to no better than 40% shooting from the field. The Mean Green allows +3.5 more points per 100 possessions when playing away from home.
FINAL TAKE: North Texas is playing smaller lineups and at a quicker pace in this tournament with 6’10 Abou Ousmane now away from the team — and they will miss his size in this fourth meeting between these two teams. This is the fourth meeting between these two teams — with each game seeing a steady increase in scoring. North Texas won the first game between these teams on January 21st with a 63-52 victory. They then won the rematch on February 29th by an 82-79 score in double-overtime that had a 62-62 score after regulation. UAB avenged those two losses in the Conference USA Semifinals with a 76-69 victory on March 10th. The Blazers have scored at least 10 more points against the Mean Green in each of their rematches this season. UAB has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 tournament games. 8* CBB UAB-North Texas ESPN2 Special with the UAB Blazers (665) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (666). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-28-23 |
Utah Valley +5 v. UAB |
Top |
86-88 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Utah Valley Wolverines (663) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (664) in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Utah Valley (28-8) has won three games in a row after their 74-68 victory against Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite last Wednesday. UAB (28-9) has won three games in a row — and 11 of their last 12 contests — after their 67-59 victory at Vanderbilt as a 1.5-point favorite on Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: Utah Valley beat the Bearcats despite only making 45.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They are an underrated — and undervalued — team that has won seven of their last eight contests including impressive wins in this tournament at Colorado and at New Mexico who all rank in metrics guru Ken Pomeroy’s top-71 teams in the nation as of this writing. The Wolverines won the Western Athletic Conference regular-season crown but failed to reach the NCAA Tournament after getting upset in the Semifinals of the WAC Tournament by Southern Utah. They have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a point-spread victory. Additionally, Utah Valley has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after winning two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four games. Furthermore, the Wolverines have covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Led by 7’0 Aziz Bandaogo, Utah Valley has one of the nation’s stingiest interior defenses in the nation. He ranks third in the nation with 105 blocks — and Utah Valley blocks 14.8% of opposing team’s shot attempts, ranking third in the nation. They rank fourth in the nation in opponent’s effective field goal percentage at 44.0% — and their opponents make only 30.8% of their shots from behind the arc and 42.9% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 28th and third in the nation respectively. Overall, the Wolverines rank 30th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UAB held the Commodores to just 33.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. The Blazers have held their last two opponents in this tournament to just 27 points in the first half — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. UAB ranks only 75th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Their opponents pull down 31.6% of their missed shots when playing away from home, ranking 279th in the nation. The Blazers are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games after a point-spread win. UAB has covered their last two games as a favorite in this tournament — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 46 games after covering the point spread as the favorite in their previous two games including four of those last five situations this season.
FINAL TAKE: One of the power rankings I follow ranks UAB as the 30th-best team in the nation in their last ten games — but Utah Valley ranks close at 37th in those ratings. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year with the Utah Valley Wolverines (663) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (664). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-26-23 |
Miami-FL v. Texas -3.5 |
|
88-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (656) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (655) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas (29-8) has won seven games in a row with their 83-71 victory against Xavier as a 4-point favorite on Friday. Miami (FL) (28-7) has won five of their last six games after their 89-75 upset victory against Houston as an 8-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Miami converted on 11 of their 25 (44%) shots from 3-point range en route to a 51.7% shooting percentage in that game which was the best effort in their last four games. But now they play a stout Longhorns defense that has played three opponents in this Big Dance that entered the game with a top-ten shooting percentage from behind the arc yet held those three foes to 18 of 60 (30%) shooting from 3-point range. The Hurricanes only made 30.2% of their shots in their opening game against Drake — so clunkers are in the repertoire. The Hurricanes have pulled off two straight upset wins after their 85-69 win against Indiana last Sunday — so an emotional letdown may be on the horizon. Miami’s scoring drops by 3.8 points per 100 possessions when they play away from home. Texas holds their opponents to -3.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home, ranking fourth best in the nation. And in their last ten games overall, the Longhorns boast the second-best defense in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation. Texas is nailing 53.9% of their shots inside the arc this season, ranking 33rd in the nation — and this is an area they should exploit against the Hurricanes. Miami ranks 204th in the nation with their opponents making 51.7% of their shots inside the arc in their last ten games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Texas is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a neutral court. 8* CBB Miami (FL)-Texas CBS-TV Special with the Texas Longhorns (656) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (655). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-26-23 |
Creighton v. San Diego State +2.5 |
Top |
56-57 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (658) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (657) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: San Diego State (30-6) has won seven games in a row after their 71-64 win against Alabama as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. Creighton (24-12) has won six of their last seven games with their 86-75 victory against Princeton as a 10-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: San Diego State found themselves down 48-39 with just 11:30 minutes left in the second half to a Crimson Tide team that many observers considered the best team in the country. But head coach Brian Dutcher called on his team to rededicate themselves to their efforts on defense to then create scoring opportunities — and the Aztecs went on a 12-0 run to seize control of that game. They held the heavily reliant Alabama scoring attack to just 3 of 21 shooting from behind the arc and a 32.4% field goal percentage overall. San Diego State usually has a strong defense — but this year’s team has taken things to another level. They have held seven straight opponents to no better than a 38.6% shooting percentage — and they have not allowed more than 64 points in those seven games. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 65 points in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after holding three or more opponents in a row to no better than 40% shooting. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. San Diego State ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank third in the nation by limiting their opponents to 28.1% shooting from behind the arc. Dutcher’s team has two significant edges in this game: depth and experience. The Aztecs have a nine-player rotation without any drop-off in talent — they rank 31st in the minute bench minutes. This reliable second unit allows the team to play so physically — and it will certainly help with just a day of rest between games. This is also a very experienced team with seven seniors and two juniors in that regular rotation. One of the power rankings systems I rely on places San Diego State as the ninth-best team in the nation — and the fifth-best team over their last ten games. Those analytics rank them the 11th-best team in the nation when playing on the road led by their defense that leads the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games away from home. They are 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games against teams with a winning record. Creighton made 58.2% of their shots on Friday in their victory against Princeton — but that was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games. I appreciate that this Bluejays team is better than their record given the midseason injury to Ryan Kalkbrenner that kept him out of three of their 12 losses this year. But Creighton has benefited from a relatively easy road to the Elite Eight against NC State, Baylor, and then the Ivy League champions. Only the Wolfpack rank in the top 100 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are just 82nd in the nation in that metric. This is a very steep step in competition for the Bluejays when they have the basketball. As it is, Creighton has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And after their 85-76 win against Baylor last weekend, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road after playing two straight games where they scored 75 or more points. Depth is a problem for head coach Greg McDermott’s team as they only have a six-man rotation after the injury to Mason Miller in the NC State game last week. This is a young group with three sophomores and a freshman joining a junior and a senior in their rotation. Stylistically, I worry that the Bluejays lack a Plan B if their 3-pointers are not falling. Like Alabama, they live by the 3-point shots with 42.0% of their field goal attempts coming from behind the arc, ranking 63rd in the nation. But Creighton does not go for offensive rebounds — they pull down only 25.2% of their missed shots, ranking 283rd in the nation. They only force turnovers in 13.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 359th in the nation. San Diego State is the wrong opponent to rely almost exclusively on 3-point efficiency — as the Crimson Tide found out. The power rankings referenced above rate the Bluejays as the 14th-best team in the nation — and they fall to 18th in their last ten games. And in their last ten games on the road, Creighton ranks only 22nd in the nation due to a defense that is giving up +7.7 more points per 100 possessions during that span than they are at home. I think the wrong team is favored in this one — but I am quite happy to take the points for some insurance (and I consider money-line bets with underdogs to be giving away money).
FINAL TAKE: San Diego State will have revenge on their minds after losing to Creighton in the Big Dance by a 72-69 score in overtime last March. This veteran team has been carrying that disappointment with them for over a year. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the NCAA tournament. 25* CBB Elite Eight Underdog of the Year with the San Diego State Aztecs (658) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (657). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-25-23 |
Connecticut -2 v. Gonzaga |
Top |
82-54 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (653) minus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (654) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Connecticut (28-8) has won three in a row and nine of their last ten games with their 88-65 victory against Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday. Gonzaga (31-5) has won 12 games in a row after their 79-76 win against UCLA as a closing-line pick ‘em on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: UConn demonstrated how high the ceiling of their potential is by outclassing a solid Razorbacks team backed by one of the best head coaches in the business in Eric Musselman on Thursday. The Huskies made 57.4% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last 25 games — and they held Arkansas to just 31.7% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 24 games. Typically, I would then expect a team to fall victim to the Regression Gods — but this is a team that ranked number one in their last ten games before that performance in one of the power rankings systems that I lean on. The Huskies did lose four of six games during a tough stretch from late December to mid-January — but four of those games were on the road and all six of those opponents currently rank in the top-82 using the Ken Pomeroy metrics including three teams in his current top-12. Their lone win in that stretch that spoiled their 14-0 start was against Creighton who is also in the Elite Eight. UConn is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They are also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a win by 20 or more points. And in their last 8 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games, they have covered the point spread in 7 of those games. Gonzaga survived a UCLA team that did not have the 6’10 Adem Bona suit-up due to his bum shoulder (although Bona did play 21 minutes in his previous game after missing the two prior contests). The Bulldogs were able to control the offensive glass by pulling down 16 offensive rebounds representing 45.7% of their missed shots. If Bona plays, those second chances on offense go down — and the Bruins do not go the ten minutes or so in the second half without making a field goal. I think UCLA wins the game if Bona plays 15 minutes in that game. Leaving the emotional disappointment of losing that play, Gonzaga remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road after winning their previous game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by six points or less. And while they have scored 77 or more points in 12 straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games after scoring 75 or more points in three or more games in a row. The Bulldogs lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but their vulnerability is on the other end of the court. Gonzaga ranks 73rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with the biggest problem being their half-court defense given their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 51.5%, ranking 235th in the nation. It is this imbalance that often holds the Bulldogs back against their top competition — they are just 7-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Gonzaga is 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the NCAA Tournament. UConn has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games in the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Elite Eight Game of the Year with the Connecticut Huskies (653) minus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (654). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-25-23 |
Florida Atlantic +2.5 v. Kansas State |
|
79-76 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Atlantic Owls (651) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (652) in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Florida Atlantic (34-3) has won ten straight games after their 62-55 upset win against Tennessee as a 4-point underdog on Thursday. Kansas State (26-9) has won three in a row and seven of their last nine games after their 98-93 win in overtime against Michigan State as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: The narrative and sentiment are with Kansas State with Markquis Nowell living out a Hollywood ending with his return home to New York — but the laptops love FAU in this spot. One of the power rankings systems I lean on ranks the Owls as the ninth-best team in the nation over their last ten games. And in their last ten games on the road, FAU ranks ninth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency using those same metrics. They stepped up their game in the second half against the Volunteers by scoring 46 points in the final 24 minutes of that game. This team has depth with multiple weapons and ways to score amongst the five players who score at least 7.0 Points-Per-Game. Shot volume is also a hidden strength of this team as they combine a low turnover percentage with a high offensive rebounding mark to ensure they usually get shots off (which are 3-point attempts 44.0% of the time, ranking 35th in the nation). In their last ten games, they are turning the ball over in just 15.4% of their possessions, ranking 73rd in the nation. And after rebounding 37.9% of their missed shots against a big and physical Tennessee team, they are pulling down 33.8% of their missed shots in their last ten games, ranking 40th in the nation during that span. With the 7’1 Vladislav Goldin in the middle, FAU should get points inside against a Wildcats defense that ranks 239th in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to make 52.7% of their shots inside the arc. The Owls are nailing 55.2% of their shot inside the arc in their last ten games on the road. This team also ranks 13th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.7%. Florida Atlantic is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a point-spread win. Nowell and this Kansas State team may be due for a letdown after their historic night on Thursday. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring 90 or more points in their last game. And while Kansas State has covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Nowell may not be 100% tonight after turning his ankle in that game. Under the hood, the Wildcats have some troubling concerns. When playing on the road, they turn the ball over in 20.8% of their possessions, ranking 302nd in the nation. And while they rank fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they plummet to 107th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home on neutral courts or hostile environments. Kansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games played on a neutral court when favored by up to three points or listed as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: FAU is 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. 10* CBB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Florida Atlantic Owls (651) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (652). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-24-23 |
Princeton v. Creighton -9.5 |
|
75-86 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Creighton Bluejays (650) minus the points versus the Princeton Tigers (649) in the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Creighton (23-12) has won five of their last six games after their 85-76 victory against Baylor as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Princeton (23-8) has won six games in a row after their 78-63 upset victory against Missouri as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUEJAYS MINUS THE POINTS: Led by the 7’1 Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton has a significant size advantage against this Princeton team that only has two players over 6’6 in their rotation — and the Tigers do not have a player on the roster taller than 6’9. The Bluejays are a balanced team that ranks 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 14th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Princeton may be due for a letdown after three straight upset victories going back to the Championship Game in the Ivy League Tournament — and they have covered the point spread in six straight games. But the Sweet Sixteen is often when Cinderellas from the previous weekend in the Big Dance goes to die. The Tigers will try to shoot their way into the Elite Eight — but they are only making 33.4% o their 3-pointers, ranking 201st in the nation. Even after their recent good run, Princeton ranks only 69th in the nation in their last ten games in the power rankings system I lean on. And when playing on the road, they rank 73rd in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: Creighton is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the NCAA Tournament. 8* CBB Princeton-Creighton TBS Special with the Creighton Bluejays (650) minus the points versus the Princeton Tigers (649). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-24-23 |
Miami-FL v. Houston -7.5 |
|
89-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (644) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (643) in the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Houston (33-3) has won 15 of their last 16 games with their 81-64 victory against Auburn as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. Miami (FL) (27-7) has won four of their last five games after their 85-69 upset win against Indiana as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: The Hurricanes shot 48.6% of their shots against the Hoosiers in their best shooting effort in their last three games. They also pulled down 19 offensive rebounds which led to 29 second-chance points. That level of productivity is not likely to continue tonight against this Cougars team that holds their opponents to 27.9% shooting in the midrange. And while Miami (FL) out-rebounded the Hoosiers by a 48-to-31 margin, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after out-rebounding their last opponent by +15 or more boards. The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in both their NCAA Tournament games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Miami (FL) sees their scoring drop by -5.5 points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. Houston might have played their best 20 minutes of the season in the second half against Auburn by scoring a whopping 41 points against the stout Tigers’ defense. But the defense played a big role in that final 20 minutes as they held Auburn to just four baskets on 17% shooting from the field — and their defense should travel to Kansas City for this contest. It is the Cougars’ defense that leads the way for head coach Kelvin Sampson. Houston ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the nation with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 36.1%. They lead the nation by blocking 16.8% of their opponent’s shots. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road after winning two of their last three games.
FINAL TAKE: The Cougars have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130s. 8* CBB Miami (FL)-Houston CBS-TV Special with the Houston Cougars (644) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (643). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-24-23 |
San Diego State +7.5 v. Alabama |
Top |
71-64 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (647) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (648) in the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: San Diego State (29-6) has won six in a row and 12 of their last 13 contests with their 75-52 win against Furman as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. Alabama (31-5) has won five games in a row with their 73-51 win against Maryland as an 8.5-point favorite as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: Alabama will beat everyone in the country if they are making their 3s — they rank 8th in the nation by taking 47.5% of their shots from behind the arc. If they get hot, we’re in trouble (just as we were in catching outlier shooting nights earlier this month with Arizona State in the play-in game and then Northwestern in the first round of the Big Dance). Being on the wrong end of a red-hot shooting night is simply part of the deal when investing daily in college and NBA basketball. The Crimson Tide are a great team because their defense is so good that it offers them a great Plan B if they are only making an average number of their 3-pointers. But Alabama is not likely to cover big point spreads against good teams if they are not nailing a high percentage of the 3s they take. They only make 34.1% of their 3-pointers, ranking 272nd in the nation — and this mark drops to 33.2% when they are playing away from home. And in their last ten games away from home, they are only making 33.0% go their shots from behind the arc which means they are actually a little below base-level efficiency in using “math” to their advantage by lauding almost half of their shots from distance. Alabama ranks 344th in the nation in terms of consistency from game to game. While they have held their last six opponents to 35.2% shooting, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games after not allowing their last two opponents to make 40% or more of their shots. Now here comes this Aztecs team that plays with a style that can give the Tide fits. San Diego State is a physical team that plays elite-level defense. They will slow the pace to a crawl — using “math” to their advantage by limiting Alabama's scoring chances and letting the pressure of the moment kick in for this number one seed. The Aztecs are loaded with experience with three seniors and two juniors in the starting lineup with depth on the bench. Despite their opponents attempting 40.5% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 288th in the nation, these shots are only falling at a 28.7% rate which is the fourth-best mark in the nation. In their last ten games on the road, not only does San Diego State hold their opponents to 25.5% shooting from behind the arc, they lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Alabama averages 10 made 3s per game from their 30 shots on average from distance. But the Aztecs have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after 15 games into the season against teams averaging 8 or more made 3s per game. San Diego State not only plays with a deliberate pace on offense but their opponents take 18.5 seconds per possession, ranking as the 346th slowest in the nation. The Aztecs crash the glass and outrebound their opponents by +4.9 Rebounds Per-Game — and the Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after 15 games into the season against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. San Diego State does not use “math” to their advantage on offense since they like to take midrange jumpers — but Alabama’s focus on taking away from shots from 3-point land plays into the Aztecs' hands in this matchup. The Crimson Tide are due for a visit from the Regression Gods in this regard as the 32% their opponents are shooting from midrange deviates significantly from the expected 38% field goal percentage based on national averages from where those shots are being taken. Alabama also ranks 290th in the nation in post-up defense — and they foul too much, ranking 222nd in the nation in defensive foul rate. San Diego State has not allowed more than 57 points in four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not allowing more than 65 points in four straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Aztecs’ style of play has helped them generate a 12-3-2 ATS mark in their last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court. The Crimson Tide has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Sweet Sixteen Underdog of the Year is with the San Diego State Aztecs (647) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (648). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-23-23 |
Gonzaga v. UCLA -1.5 |
Top |
79-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (642) minus the point(s) versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (641) in the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UCLA (31-5) has won 14 of their last 15 games after their 68-63 victory against Northwestern as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Gonzaga (30-5) has won 11 games in a row with their 84-81 victory against TCU as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINT(S): The first order of business in assessing UCLA for this game is taking stock of their injury situation. Freshman Jayden Clark is already out the season. Adem Bona missed two games in a row with a shoulder — but he did return to the court on Saturday to play 21 minutes (which is his typical usage). While he is listed as questionable, it is reasonable to assume that Bona can play again five days later. The primary importance for the 6’10 freshman is to play defense against Drew Timme — and an impaired shoulder does not impact his defensive effectiveness as much as it would if his shooting was needed tonight. David Singleton is also questionable after rolling his ankle late in Saturday’s game. Singleton claims that “I’m fine,” for what that is worth. It’s another Patrick Mahomes situation where are guessing at the severity of an ankle injury from television. Head coach Mick Cronin confirmed that the ankle is not broken. He probably plays but is not 100% (like Armando Bacot for North Carolina in last year’s National Championship Game). Singleton is a 6’4 senior who is the team’s best 3-point shooter — but he is still a secondary scorer. I waited until Thursday morning to confirm this play — and there is no morning update so it will likely be a game-time decision for both players. Even if both players do not play, Cronin still has answers with players who have been consistently in the rotation. Kenneth Nwuba is a 6’10 senior who played more minutes in the two games Bona recently missed. Freshman Dylan Andrews gets more time on the court if Singleton is out. The injuries are mounting, but I think the crisis point for Cronin is he loses one more rotation player (assuming Bona and Singleton do not play). The key players for this team remain Jaime Jaquez, Jr. and Tyger Campbell — if either of these players got hurt, it would be devastating. Jaquez, Jr. may be the best player in college basketball this season — and Campbell might be the best point guard in the country. So, let’s keep that perspective in mind. These two have now led the Bruins to their third straight Sweet Sixteen. UCLA will bring an elite defense into this game that is second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They allowed Northwestern to make 37.3% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread. Their outstanding defense helps them rank third in the nation in Net Adjusted Efficiency when playing away from home. UCLA is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a neutral court. Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road after winning their previous game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by six points or less. And while they have scored 77 or more points in 11 straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after scoring 75 or more points in three or more games in a row. The Bulldogs lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but their vulnerability is on the other end of the court. Gonzaga ranks 75th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with the biggest problem being their half-court defense given their opponent’s field goal percentage of 51.7%, ranking 245th in the nation. It is this imbalance that often holds the Bulldogs back against their top competition — they are just 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. I don’t like this matchup for head coach Mark Few’s team. Who will guard Jacquez? UCLA has multiple perimeter players who will likely frustrate the Zags. Furthermore, the Bruins’ elite transition defense will slow down the Gonzaga offensive attack and force them to execute in the half-court. Finally, while Timme leads a formidable frontcourt, the Bulldogs’ backcourt may get exposed in this matchup. Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Cronin, Jaquez, and Campbell will all have revenge on their minds after losing in overtime to Gonzaga in the Final Four of the 2021 Big Dance. They then lost the rematch the following November to that Bulldogs team — but that group was probably better than Few’s team now with future NBA players Chet Holmgren and Andrew Nembhard (and that 2020-21 team also had Jalen Suggs and Corey Krispert). Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games in the NCAA Tournament — and the Bruins have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in the Big Dance. 25* CBB Sweet Sixteen Game of the Year with the UCLA Bruins (642) minus the point(s) versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (641). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-23-23 |
Florida Atlantic +5.5 v. Tennessee |
|
62-55 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Florida Atlantic Owls (635) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (636) in the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: FAU (33-3) has won nine games in a row — and 12 of their last 13 games — with their 78-70 victory against Fairleigh Dickinson as a 16-point favorite on Sunday. Tennessee (25-10) has won three of their last four games with their 65-52 upset win against Duke as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS: FAU is a dangerous underdog in this game. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after winning four or more games in a row — and they are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after a point spread loss. The Owls are a good shot volume team who will take advantage of most of their scoring opportunities against the great defense they will face with the Volunteers. FAU only turns the ball over in 16.4% of their possessions — ranking 64th in the nation. They also pull down 30.9% of their missed shots, ranking 97th in the nation — and they have 33 offensive rebounds in their two games in this Big Dance. And this is a team that launches 3s with 43.8% of their shots from the field coming from behind the arc, ranking 38th in the nation. The Owls make 36.7% of their 3-pointers, ranking 41st in the nation. FAU’s outside shooters complement Vladislav Goldin, a 7’1 big man who gives them a legitimate scoring threat inside. Tennessee may be due for a letdown after upsetting Duke and now playing a nine-seed mid-major. As it is, the Volunteers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Vols miss their spark plug on offense in point guard Zakai Zeigler who suffered a season-ending torn ACL in late February. They have only scored 123 combined points in their two Big Dance games. Tennessee sees their scoring drop by -8.0 points per possession when playing away from home.
FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on a neutral court when favored or a pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in the NCAA Tournament. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. FAU has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 10* CBB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Florida Atlantic Owls (635) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-22-23 |
Utah Valley v. Cincinnati |
|
74-68 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Utah Valley Wolverines (627) minus the point(s) versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (628) in the Quarterfinals of the NIT. THE SITUATION: Utah Valley (27-8) pulled off their second-straight upset in this tournament with their 81-69 upset win at Colorado as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Cincinnati (23-12) has won four of their last five games after their 79-65 win at Hofstra as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINT(S): Utah Valley followed up their 83-69 upset win at New Mexico with their upset victory in Boulder against the Buffaloes. Colorado did make 46.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 28 games. The Wolverines rank fourth in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.2% propelled by an interior defense that holds their opponents to 43.1% shooting of their 2-point shots, also ranking fourth in the nation. Utah Valley State has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after winning three of their last four games. Cincinnati made 52.6% of their shots against the Pride which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. They also held Hofstra to 37.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last three games.
FINAL TAKE: This is a tough road assignment for the Bearcats having to play in the small Wolverines’ gym seating 8500 fans — and it is telling that they are underdogs (or a pick ‘em) in this game. Utah Valley has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games when favored. 8* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Utah Valley Wolverines (627) minus the point(s) versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-21-23 |
Wisconsin v. Oregon -2.5 |
Top |
61-58 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (616) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (615) in the Quarterfinals of the NIT. THE SITUATION: Oregon (21-14) has won two straight games — and six of their last seven contests — after their 68-54 win against Central Florida as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Wisconsin (19-14) has won three of their last four games after their 75-71 win against Liberty as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Oregon entered the season with high expectations — but injuries and inconsistencies kept this team from making the NCAA Tournament. They beat Arizona in mid-January — but they also suffered two three-game losing streaks. The Ducks are dealing with some injuries with three regulars in their rotation, Will Richardson, N’Faly Dante, and Jermaine Couisnard, all questionable to play tonight. But for big programs like Oregon, the NIT is an opportunity to establish momentum for next season by giving the younger players an opportunity — and this trio of players has yet to play in the NIT due to these injuries. The absence of the 6’11 Dante has created more opportunities for a pair of seven-footers in Nate Brittle and Kel’el Ware. Brittle is a sophomore who has scored 21 and 17 points for the Ducks in their two NIT victories. Ware is a freshman who has added 11 and 9 points in the NIT. Without Richardson and Couisnard, some veterans have stepped up with senior Quincy Guerrier scoring 16 points against Central Florida and senior Rivaldo Soares contributing 21 points in their first NIT game which was an 84-58 win against UC-Irvine. Remember, Oregon was considered to have one of the top ten rosters in the nation entering the season. They have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 home games after winning two games in a row by double-digits. Playing at home at Knight Arena certainly helps where they are holding their opponents to just 38.7% shooting which has resulted in only 63.3 Points-Per-Game. They have a 15-5 record with a +10.5 net point differential. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 home games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 51% to 60% of their games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. Wisconsin is back to full strength after dealing with injuries during the Big Ten conference play — but this is not one of head coach Greg Gard’s more talented teams. They shot a season-high 54.0% from the field in their win against Liberty — but that was at home where they have a 50.4% effective field goal percentage. But on the road, the Badgers are making only 41.0% of their shots. Wisconsin is 0-9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home.
FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who are winning 60% to 80% of their games. Oregon has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. If Richardson, Dante, and/or Couisnard can play tonight, that is even better for Altman. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Oregon Ducks (616) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (615). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-19-23 |
TCU +5 v. Gonzaga |
|
81-84 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (851) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (852) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: TCU (22-12) has won two of their last three games with their 72-70 victory against Arizona State as a 5-point favorite on Friday. Gonzaga (29-5) has won ten games in a row with their 82-70 victory against Grand Canyon as a 15-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bulldogs tend to be overvalued by the betting market. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a double-digit victory. Gonzaga has scored at least 77 points in ten straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after scoring at least 75 points in three games in a row. And in their last 5 games on the road for a second game in three days, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests. The Bulldogs lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they score -3.6 fewer points per 100 possessions when they are playing away from home. While head coach Mark Few’s team is outstanding on offense, they are lacking on the other end of the court. They rank 81st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams outside the West Coast Conference — and they are 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. TCU survived the Sun Devils’ more difficult defense despite making only 35.5% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. Their game with Arizona State finished Under the Total — and the Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games on the road after playing an Under in their last game. TCU has covered the point spread just once in their last five games — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when playing for the second time in the last eight days. Head coach Jamie Dixon’s team is balanced. They rank 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They force turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 23rd in the nation. They pull down 32.5% of their missed shots, ranking 58th in the nation. They can struggle against teams with an elite defense — but that is not this Gonzaga team.
FINAL TAKE: TCU has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court as an underdog or as a pick 'em. 10* CBB Sunday Late Show Bailout with the TCU Horned Frogs (851) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (852). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-19-23 |
Miami-FL +2 v. Indiana |
|
85-69 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (839) plus the point(s) versus the Indiana Hoosiers (840) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (26-7) has won three of their last four games with their 63-56 win against Drake as a 2.5-point favorite on Friday. Indiana (23-11) has won three of their last four games after their 71-60 victory against Kent State as a 4-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the MVP Arena in Albany, New York.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES PLUS THE POINTS: Miami survived their game with the Bulldogs despite shooting a season-low 30.4% from the field. They should shoot better tonight and approach or exceed their 48.1% field goal percentage on the season. The Hurricanes rank 21st in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with an effective field goal percentage of 54.4%, ranking 24th in the nation. Their Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road ranks 18th in the nation — and it is due to their improved play on defense when playing away from home. Miami (FL) allows -11.8 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a double-digit victory. The Hoosiers rank 34th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road — which makes them a questionable favorite in this game. And while they improve to 26th in the nation in their last ten games when playing away from home, the Hurricanes rank 14th in the nation in their last ten games on the road. Indiana scores -4.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing away from home. They are only making 32.7% of their shots from behind the arc on the road in their last ten games, ranking 237th in the nation during that span.
FINAL TAKE: The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games as an underdog. 10* CBB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (839) plus the point(s) versus the Indiana Hoosiers (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-19-23 |
Creighton +1.5 v. Baylor |
Top |
85-76 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Creighton Bluejays (849) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Baylor Bears (850) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Creighton (22-12) has won four of their last five games after their 72-63 win against NC State as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Baylor (23-10) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 74-56 win against UC Santa Barbara as a 10.5-point favorite on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUEJAYS PLUS THE POINTS: Creighton was undervalued as a six seed: one of the power rankings systems I use rates them as the 14th best team in the nation, one spot ahead of Baylor at #15. The Bluejays are a balanced team that ranks in the top-27 in both Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency using those metrics. They match up well with the Bears whose biggest weakness is their interior defense which has open spaces from the zone defenses head coach Scott Drew likes to deploy. Baylor ranks 315th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 53.4% of their shots inside the arc. Creighton converts on 54.8% of their 2-point shots, ranking 22nd in the nation. The Bears allow their opponents to make 45.4% of their shots — and head coach Greg McDermott’s team has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after 15 games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45% or higher. The Bluejays are outstanding on the other end of the court where they rank 13th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Baylor wants to shoot 3s when they have the ball — they rank 31st in the nation with a 37.1% shooting percentage from behind the arc. But Creighton makes it hard for their opponents to get off 3-pointers as they rank ninth in the nation with their opponents only taking 29.6% of their shots from behind the arc — and their opponents only generate 27.6% of their points from made 3-pointers, the 289th lowest mark in the nation. And while the Bears crash the glass by pulling down 34.5% of their missed shots, ranking 15th in the nation, the Bluejays limit their opponents to rebounding a mere 23.3% of their missed shots in their road games, ranking fifth best in the nation. This combination of characteristics has helped Creighton cover the point spread in 31 of their last 48 games against teams with a winning record. Baylor made 54.9% of their shots against the Gauchos but that was the best shooting effort in their last 27 games They have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by 15 or more points. And in their last 7 games when playing for just the second time in eight days, Baylor has failed to cover the point spread 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: Creighton has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Second Round NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Creighton Bluejays (849) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Baylor Bears (850). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-19-23 |
Pittsburgh v. Xavier -5 |
|
73-84 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 12:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Xavier Musketeers (846) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (845) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Xavier (26-9) has won six of their last seven games after their 72-67 victory against Kent State as a 12-point favorite on Friday. Pittsburgh (24-11) has won two games in a row with their 59-41 upset victory against Iowa State as a 4-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MUSKETEERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Panthers have pulled off two straight upsets in this tournament after beating Mississippi State by a 60-59 score as a 2.5-point underdog in a play-in game on Wednesday. Head coach Jeff Capel has pulled off a minor miracle this week in getting his team to play better defense. They held the Cyclones to 23.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort for them all season. And when they limited the Bulldogs to 38.1% shooting earlier in the week, that was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. Unfortunately for the Pittsburgh faithful, the bad shooting from Mississippi State and Iowa State deserves some of the credit/blame for those numbers. The Panthers enters this tournament allowing their previous five opponents to make 50.3% of their shots which resulted in 85.0 Points-Per-Game that they were giving up. In their loss to Duke in the ACC Tournament, the Blue Devils made 62.1% of their shots. Now Pittsburgh has to play a Musketeers team that ranks 8th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Panthers enter this game ranked 127th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — so I do expect a visit from the Regression Gods this afternoon. Furthermore, the Panthers have pulled off these upsets despite making a season-low 34.1% of their shots against the Cyclones after a 38.9% shooting effort against Mississippi State. And there is nothing really under the hood that is explaining these victories outside facing opponents that were even more dreadful shooting the basketball. Pitt has only pulled down 13 offensive rebounds in both games. The Bulldogs turned the ball over too much on Wednesday but Iowa State committed only eight turnovers representing 12.9% of their possessions. The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after holding their previous opponent to a field goal percentage of 28% or less. Xavier is a rock-solid team that ranks 16th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency using the Ken Pomeroy metrics. The Musketeers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning their previous one as a favorite but not covering the point spread. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road after a point spread loss. They rank 10th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 55.4% — and they are fourth in the nation with a 39.1% shooting percentage from behind the arc. on the road, Xavier still ranks ninth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with a 54.6% effective field goal percentage — and their 3-point shooting actually improves to 40.2%, ranking fourth in the nation. The Musketeers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road when playing their second game in three days. They have also covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games on the road in the postseason.
FINAL TAKE: Xavier is 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they are 24-8-2 ATS in their last 34 games in the Big Dance. 10* CBB Pittsburgh-Xavier CBS-TV Special with the Xavier Musketeers (846) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (845). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-18-23 |
Maryland +9 v. Alabama |
|
51-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Maryland Terrapins (805) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (806) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Maryland (22-12) has won two of their last three games after their 67-65 upset win against West Virginia as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday. Alabama (30-5) has won eight of their last nine games with their 96-75 win against Texas A&M Corpus Christi as a 24-point favorite on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Legacy Arena in Birmingham, Alabama.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TERRAPINS PLUS THE POINTS: Maryland will present a stiff challenge to the Crimson Tide — they rank 21st in Ken Pomeroy’s Net Adjusted Efficiency rankings system. The Terrapins rank in the top-33 in both Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. This balanced and well-rounded team has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after scoring at least 85 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games after scoring at least 90 or more points in their last game.
|
03-18-23 |
Penn State v. Texas -5.5 |
|
66-71 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (812) minus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (811) in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas (27-8) is on a five-game winning streak after their 81-61 win against Colgate as a 12.5-point favorite on Thursday. Penn State (23-13) has won nine of their last 11 games with their 76-59 upset victory against Texas A&M as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Wells Fargo Center in Des Moines, Iowa.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas held the Raiders to just 43.1% shooting which was actually the highest-opponent field goal percentage in their last five games. Colgate missed 12 of their 15 shots from behind the arc. The Longhorns rank seventh in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when they are playing on the road. They have not allowed more than 61 points in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 65 points in two or more games in a row. Texas has played six straight Unders — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. Penn State made 48.2% of their shots in their upset win against the Aggies while nailing 13 of their 22 (59.1%) from behind the arc. Not only was that the best shooting effort in their last four games but their 3-point shooting performance was well above their 37.9% shooting percentage from behind the arc when playing on the road. Texas A&M only made 33.3% of their shots which was the lowest opponent field goal percentage in the Nittany Lions' last three games. But defense is not a strength for Penn State which ranks 106th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. The Nittany Lions have played their last two games Under the Total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. Penn State lives and dies by the 3-point shot — and they partied like it was 1999 on Thursday against the Aggies. But when the shots stop falling and the hangover arrives, they lack a credible Plan B. They rank 357th in the nation by rebounding 19.4% of their missed shots when playing on the road. They rank 363rd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 11.6% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Texas has covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the NCAA Tournament. 20* CBB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Texas Longhorns (812) minus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (811). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-18-23 |
Princeton v. Missouri -6 |
|
78-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (814) minus the points versus the Princeton Tigers (813) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Missouri (25-9) won for the sixth time in their last seven games with their 76-65 upset win against Utah State as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. Princeton (22-8) is on a five-game winning streak after their 59-55 victory against Arizona as a 15-point underdog on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California.
REASONS TO TAKE MISSOURI MINUS THE POINTS: The Tigers from the SEC should build off their momentum in this game as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a double-digit victory. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 20 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Missouri is one of the best offensive teams in the nation — not only do they shoot the ball well but they protect the basketball to help take full advantage of each of their possessions. When playing on the road on neutral courts or hostile environments, they rank 24th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 53.4% — and they are top-30 in the nation in both 3-point shooting and shooting inside the arc when away from home. They also only turn the ball over in 15.6% of their possessions, ranking 26th in the nation. This combination of qualities helps Mizzou to rank fourth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They also force turnovers in 23.4% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on the road, ranking seventh in the nation. While one of the power rankings I track considers Missouri the 52nd-best team in the nation, they zoom up to 24th in the nation when assessing play on the road. Princeton has pulled off two straight upset wins after beating Yale as the host team in the Ivy League Tournament last Saturday before their win against Arizona on Thursday. But that triumph may have had more to do with the Wildcats giving that game away. Arizona only shot 42.1% from the field while missing 33 shots. The Wildcats turned the ball over 13 times and only pulled down seven offensive rebounds. They had six of their shots blocked while only blocking one shot themselves. The Tigers from the Ivy League only shot 40.6% from the field while converting a mere 4 of their 25 (16%) shots from behind the arc. They have only made 29.8% of their shots from 3-point range in their last ten games away from home, ranking 317th in the nation. Princeton has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset win in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning five or more games in a row. This team ranks just 86th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home.
FINAL TAKE: Princeton makes 45.5% of their shots — but Missouri has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams who make 45% or more of their shots. Head coach Denis Gates 'team has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. 20* CBB Princeton-Missouri TNT Special with the Missouri Tigers (814) minus the points versus the Princeton Tigers (813). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-18-23 |
Furman v. San Diego State -5 |
|
52-75 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 12:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (802) minus the points versus the Furman Paladins (801) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: San Diego State (28-6) has won five straight games — and 11 of their last 12 contests — after their 63-57 victory against the College of Charleston as a 5.5-point favorite on Thursday. Furman (28-7) comes off their 68-67 upset victory against Virginia as a 5.5-point underdog on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS MINUS THE POINTS: The Mountain West Conference champions are peaking at the right time of the season - and they should continue their momentum in this game. The Aztecs are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread victory. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Head coach Brian Dutcher’s team is tightening things up on the defensive end of the court. They have held their last five opponents to 35.3% shooting which is resulting in them only scoring 54.6 Points-Per-Game. San Diego State has not allowed more than 61 points in five straight games while playing nine games in a row Under the Total. They have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 65 points in four or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. They now rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. Furman lives by their 3-point shooting — they rank 12th in the nation by taking 46.5% of their shots from behind the arc. The Paladins attempt 27 shots from 3-point range per game — and they average eight made 3s per contest. But the Aztecs have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after 15 games into the season against opponents who attempt 21 or more shots from distance per contest — and they have covered the point spread in 9 straight games after 15 games into the season against teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers per game. San Diego State limits their opponents to just 28.9% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking sixth best in the nation. The College of Charleston entered their game with the Aztecs on Thursday ranked ninth in the nation by taking 47.4% of their shots from behind the arc — but San Diego State held them to just a 5 of 24 (20.8%) shooting clip on those shots. Furman has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing for the second time in eight days. The Paladins have played three straight Overs — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 38 of their last 56 games on the road after playing two straight Overs.
FINAL TAKE: Furman has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on a neutral court as an under of six points or less. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games played on a neutral court when favored by 3.5 to 6 points. 10* CBB Furman-San Diego State CBS-TV Special with the San Diego State Aztecs (802) minus the points versus the Furman Paladins (801). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-17-23 |
Kent State +4.5 v. Indiana |
Top |
60-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 10:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Kent State Golden Flashes (771) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (772) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Kent State (28-6) has won six games in a row and 10 of their last 11 contests after their 93-78 victory against Toledo in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game in a pick ‘em contest last Saturday. Indiana (22-11) was on a two-game winning streak before their 77-73 upset loss to Penn State as a 3.5-point favorite in the Semifinals of the Big Ten Conference Tournament last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at MVP Arena in Albany, New York.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN FLASHES PLUS THE POINTS: Kent State is a veteran team that will be very confident that they can pull the upset tonight. They lost to Houston and Gonzaga by just five points and seven points earlier in the season. They engage in a style of play that produces upsets. They are a very good defensive team that led the Mid-American Conference and ranked 41st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 20th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.6% of their opponent’s possession. They were second in the MAC by pulling down 33.0% of their missed shots. And they can slow games down with their tough defense — their opponents averaged 17.7 seconds per possession, the 201st slowest mark in the nation. The Golden Flashes are 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 games after a straight-up win. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 20 games after a point-spread victory. They have scored at least 79 points in six straight games — and not only have they covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after scoring 75 or more points in two straight games, they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after scoring 75 or more points in three straight games. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral court. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset loss in their previous game. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Hoosiers are a good team that one of the power rankings I use has as the 31st team in the nation — but they do fall to 42nd in the nation when playing away from home. Kent State ranks 76th in that power rankings system — and they jump to 66th in the nation when playing away from home. Indiana’s style of play makes them vulnerable if their shots are not falling. They only pull down 28.0% of their missed shots, ranking 201st in the nation. They force turnovers in just 16.3% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 295th in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: As a team from the Mid-American Conference, Kent State would love to shock a blue blood Big Ten program. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams outside the MAC. They are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when seeded at four or higher (better) in the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB First Round NCAA Tournament Underdog of the Year with the Kent State Golden Flashes (771) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (772). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-17-23 |
Drake v. Miami-FL -2.5 |
|
56-63 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:25 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (770) minus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (769) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (25-7) had their two-game winning streak snapped in an 85-78 loss to Duke as a 2.5-point underdog in the Semifinals of the ACC Tournament last Friday. Drake (27-7) has won three in a row — and 13 of their last 14 contests — after their 77-51 victory against Bradley as a 2-point favorite in the Championship Game of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament on March 5th. This game is being played on a neutral court at MVP Arena in Albany, New York.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS THE POINTS: Miami (FL) has been one of the most effective teams when playing away from home this season — they rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on a neutral court or hostile environment. It starts with the efficiency of their offense as they rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Drake ranks 50th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency using those same power rankings — but they drop to 70th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from using those metrics. They give up +3.0 points per 100 possessions when playing on the road — and they are allowing +5.4 more points per 100 possessions versus playing at home in their last ten games on the road. Now they face an angry Hurricanes team that allowed Duke to nail 54.9% of their shots last week which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. Miami (FL) lost Norchad Omier early in that game to an ankle injury — and his absence was felt in their interior defense. At 6’7, Omier and Jordan Miller are the two tallest players in their starting five lineup. While he helps their offensive efforts by scoring 13.6 Points-Per-Game this season, he is important for their frontcourt defense and keeping opponents off their offensive glass. Duke pulled down 36.0% of their missed shots with Omier missing most of that game.
FINAL TAKE: Miami is 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. 8* CBB Drake-Miami (FL) TBS-TV Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (770) minus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (769). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-17-23 |
NC State +5.5 v. Creighton |
|
63-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (793) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (794) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: NC State (23-10) limps into the NCAA Tournament having lost three of their last four games after their 80-54 loss to Clemson as a 1-point underdog in the ACC Tournament last Thursday. Creighton (21-12) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 82-60 upset loss to Xavier as a 3.5-point favorite in the Semifinals of the Big East Conference Tournament last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK PLUS THE POINTS: NC State only made 35.0% of their shots against the Tigers which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They also allowed Clemson to make 50% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games. The Wolfpack gets to take advantage of the big reset that the NCAA Tournament offers — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Wolfpack have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. This is a team that is better than their overall record since starting forward Jack Clark has missed 11 games earlier in the season to injury — and three of NC State’s losses were without a healthy Clark. The laptops like this team because they are solid across the aboard in most areas (except for getting to the free throw line). They rank in the top-118 teams in the nation in both forcing turnovers and grabbing offensive rebounds — so they have credible Plan Bs and Cs if their shots are not falling. They also rank second in the nation by turning the ball over in just 13.4% of their possessions — so they usually take advantage of their scoring opportunities. They have two high quality guards in Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner. NC State presents a challenge matchup against the Bluejays since they are willing to take so many 3s. The Wolfpack attempt 24 shots from behind the arc per game while nailing an average of eight per contest. Creighton has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams who throw up 21 or more 3-point attempts per contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams who nail eight or more 3-pointers per game. The Bluejays are a good team but they can be too dependent on making their shots since they do not create additional scoring opportunities. Creighton ranks 352nd in the nation by forcing turnovers in just 14.3% of their opponent’s possessions. They rank 271st in the nation by rebounding only 25.5% of their missed shots. Additionally, they rank 290th in the nation in getting to the foul line. In their last four losses, they shot only 28.7% from behind the arc — missing 72 of their 101 shots from 3-point land in those four games. The Bluejays may struggle getting off the mat after getting thumped by the Musketeers in the Big East tournament. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after an upset loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams winning 60% or more of their games.
FINAL TAKE: NC State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams outside the ACC. Creighton has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored on a neutral court by 3.5 to 6 points. 10* CBB Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (793) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (794). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-17-23 |
Vermont +11 v. Marquette |
|
61-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Vermont Catamounts (743) plus the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (744) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. Vermont (23-10) rides a 15-game winning streak after their 72-59 victory against UMass-Lowell as a 6.5-point favorite in the America East Conference Tournament Championship Game last Saturday. Marquette (28-6) is on a nine-game winning streak after their 68-51 victory against Xavier as a 2-point favorite in the Big East Tournament Championship Game last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CATAMOUNTS PLUS THE POINTS: Vermont took the America East title last week despite making only 44.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. The Catamounts typically feed off their momentum as they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a point-spread victory. Vermont will attempt to steal this game by making 3-pointers from their five-out offensive scheme. In their last ten games away from home, they are nailing 38.2% of their 3-pointers, ranking 36th in the nation. Marquette is vulnerable against sharpshooters like this — they allow their opponents to make 36.0% of their shots from behind the arc when they are playing on the road in hostile environments or neutral courts. The Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 58 of their last 90 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Vermont has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. Marquette has not covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the NCAA Tournament. 8* CBB Vermont-Marquette CBS-TV Special with the Vermont Catamounts (743) plus the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (744). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-16-23 |
Penn State v. Texas A&M -2.5 |
Top |
76-59 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 9:55 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (754) minus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (753) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (25-9) saw their four-game winning streak end in the SEC Championship Game in an 82-63 loss to Alabama as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday. Penn State (22-13) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 67-65 loss to Purdue as a 7.5-point underdog in the Big Ten Championship Game last Sunday, This game will be played on a neutral court at Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: I am wary of upstarts entering the Big Dance after a surprising run in their conference tournament — and the Nittany Lions fit this profile to a T. This group went from being on the bubble last week at this time to a trendy pick to reach the Elite Eight in some (woozy) circles. Slow down, everybody. Penn State’s three victories in the Big Ten tournament against Illinois, Northwestern, and Indiana benefited from those three teams combining to make only 14 of their 59 shots from behind the arc (23.7%). The expected score projections based on shot quality and national field goal percentage averages (the equivalent of expected goals in soccer) indicate that Penn State should have lost each of the games during their five-game winning streak. Now this team makes a rare appearance in the NCAA Tournament — and they are primed for a letdown given the personality of this team. The Nittany Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning eight or more of their last ten games. And while this “red-hot” Penn State team has covered the points spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. This is a team who lives or dies by their outside shooting — and those are very vulnerable teams playing in single-elimination games in unfamiliar environments. The Nittany Lions rank 362nd in the nation in forcing turnovers and 362nd in the nation in offensive rebounding (and they are the worst team from a Power Five conference in both categories). They also rank 361st in the nation in getting to the free throw line. Instead, Plan A is to launch 3s, and Plan B is to launch another 3. But Penn State’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency does drop by 2.4 points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. And they do not complement this approach with stout defense. Their small-ball style that facilitates their 3-point shooting has them vulnerable inside — their Big Ten opponents made 51.9% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 13th in the conference. In their last ten games playing away from home, the Nittany Lions ranks 173rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Now here comes a Texas A&M team that beat two teams ranked in Ken Pomeroy’s top-five teams in the nation according to his KenPom analytics. The Aggies also beat Arkansas and Auburn twice who rank in his top-29. They only made 29.7% of their shots against the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game which was a season-low for them — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning four of their last five games. Another power rankings system I use puts this team 9th in the nation in their last ten games — and they also rank them 10th in the nation in their last ten games when only evaluating play away from home. Head coach Buzz Williams’ style of play travels — this team crashes the glass, forces, turnovers, and gets to the free throw line. The Aggies rank second in the nation by pulling down 38.0% of their missed shots. They rank third in the nation in getting to the free throw line where they led the SEC by making 77.9% of their shots at the charity stripe. They rank 16th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.1% of their opponent’s possessions. Texas A&M is not a great shooting team — but they will have a size edge tonight with a Plan B, C, and D if their shots are not falling. This formula has helped them cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first NCAA Tournament appearance for this team under head coach Buzz Williams — but the seeds were planted last year when the Aggies reached the title game of the NIT to give his group deep tournament experience. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Round One NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Texas A&M Aggies (754) minus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (753). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-16-23 |
UL - Lafayette +11.5 v. Tennessee |
|
55-58 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (741) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (742) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (26-7) has won five games in a row after their 71-66 victory against South Alabama as a 1.5-point favorite in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament Championship Game as a 1.5-point favorite back on March 6th. Tennessee (23-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 79-71 upset loss to Missouri as a 5.5-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: UL-Lafayette outlasted the Jaguars to win the Sun Belt tournament despite allowing them to make 48.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after a straight-up win. And while the Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. In their last ten games away from home, they are nailing 37.2% of their 3-pointers which could be their recipe in pulling the upset. The Volunteers are learning to live life without their starting point guard and leader in assists, Zakai Zeigler, who has not played in their last three games — and his loss was critical in their upset loss to the Tigers in the SEC tournament last week. Tennessee can fall into scoring lulls — they rank 262nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 47.5% when playing away from home.
FINAL TAKE: UL-Lafayette has the opportunity to play the role of the spoiler against an undermanned Tennessee team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. 8* CBB UL-Lafeyette-Tennessee CBS-TV Special with the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (741) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (742). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-16-23 |
Furman +6 v. Virginia |
|
68-67 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 12:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Furman Paladins (739) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (740) in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Furman (27-7) has won six games in a row after their 88-79 victory over UT-Chattanooga to win the Southern Conference Tournament as a 3.5-point favorite on March 6th. Virginia (25-7) was on a five-game winning streak before their 59-49 loss to Duke in the Finals of the ACC Tournament as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PALADINS PLUS THE POINTS: Virginia only shot 33.3% from the field against the Blue Devils on Saturday — and they are ripe to get upset this afternoon if their shots are not falling. While the Cavaliers boast a 52.9% effective field goal percentage when playing at home, that mark drops to 49.8% when they are playing away from home in hostile environments or neutral courts, ranking 149th in the nation. Virginia is 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. That game with Duke finished far below the 124-point total for that contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after playing an Under in their last game. Additionally, the Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of their games this season after failing to score at least 60 points in their last game. As it is, Virginia’s style of play makes them vulnerable to upsets in one-and-done situations like this. They play at a snail's pace — they rank 343rd in the nation by averaging 19.4 seconds per possession. This results in 61.5 adjusted possessions per game in their contests this season, ranking 360th. Fewer possessions in a game allow for more short-term variance — and what if Virginia’s shots are not falling? They do not create additional scoring chances on the offensive end as they only pull down 25.2% of their missed shots, ranking 270th in the nation. And they rank 249th in the nation with a 70.1% mark at the charity stripe. Head coach Tony Bennett’s team is known for their pack-line defense that can make it tough for teams to find open looks inside — but teams that are comfortable shooting from distance can find success. The Cavaliers see 39.7% of their opponent’s shots come from behind the arc, ranking 268th in the nation. And here comes the Paladins who rank 13th in the nation by taking 46.4% of their shots from 3-point range. Head coach Bob Richey deploys a five-out system to facilitate this outside shooting — and six of his players have nailed 20 or more 3-pointers this season. Furman also leads the nation with a 59.1% shooting percentage inside the arc with this five-out scheme helpful in creating opening looks closer to the basket. The Paladins do a solid job of creating extra-scoring possessions if their shots are not falling. They led the Southern Conference by pulling down 31.1% of their missed shots. They force turnovers in 18.4% of their opponent’s possessions which is above the national average. Virginia is adept at forcing turnovers — but Furman was second in the Southern Conference by turning the ball over in just 14.7% of their possessions. They also make 74.6% of their free throws. In their last ten games away from home, the Paladins' Adjusted Offensive Efficiency ranks sixth in the nation. They come into this game with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win while covering the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory.
FINAL TAKE: Furman has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in the NCAA Tournament — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 opening-round games in the Big Dance. 10* CBB Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Furman Paladins (739) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (740). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-15-23 |
Arizona State v. Nevada +2.5 |
Top |
98-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (704) plus the points versus the Arizona State (703) in the First Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Nevada (22-10) limps into the NCAA Tournament on a three-game losing streak after losing to San Jose State in overtime by an 81-77 score as a 4-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament last Thursday. Arizona State (22-12) had won two in a row before their 78-59 loss to Arizona as a 7.5-point underdog in the Semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK PLUS THE POINTS: The betting public seems to generally consider Nevada an unworthy recipient of an NCAA Tourney bid when compared to slighted teams like Rutgers or Oklahoma State. The Mountain West Conference is not given much respect given recent results in the Big Dance. And the Wolf Pack got upset in three straight games against non-NCAA Tournament teams coming into this game. They got upset against Wyoming before losing in overtime to UNLV in their last regular season game before getting upset against the Spartans last Thursday. Perhaps the Regression Gods were playing head coach Steve Alford’s team back from some good luck regarding close wins earlier in the season? Those things tend to even out. Contrary to the betting public, the laptops like the Mountain West Conference and this Nevada. Ken Pomeroy’s ranking system currently has the Wolf Pack as his 44th team in the nation — and the Sun Devils only rank 70th according to his metrics. Nevada has impressive wins against San Diego State and Utah State that Pomeroy ranks in his top-18 teams — and they lost in overtime on the neutral court to a Kansas State team that Pomeroy ranks 25th in the nation. There is nothing like a First Four NCAA Tournament game to quickly reverse a lazy narrative while igniting some momentum for this team after a bad start to the month. As it is, the Wolf Pack has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two games in a row to conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after suffering two straight upset losses. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two games in a row by six points or less. Nevada is 18-8-2 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record — and they are not a good matchup for this Arizona State team. The Sun Devils want to create scoring opportunities in open play to take advantage of their speed and athleticism. They thrive when forcing turnovers — but the Wolf Pack rank 25th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 15.2 % of their possessions. Nevada also ranks fifth in the nation in opponent transition scoring opportunities. When Arizona State gets stuck in the half-court, they struggle to score points. They rank 308th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 47.5%. They rank 315th in the nation with a 31.4% clip from behind the arc. They rank 274th in the nation with a 47.9% clip inside the arc — and that mark falls even further to just a 44.5% shooting percentage with their 2-pointers when playing away from home, ranking 300th in the nation. The Sun Devils are a great defensive team, especially in the half-court — but they foul too much in their zeal to create turnovers. Arizona State ranks 235th in the nation in defensive foul rate — and Nevada ranks 22nd in the nation in drawing fouls. On the line, the Wolf Pack make 79.2% of their free throws which is the sixth-best mark in the nation. Nevada will have a size advantage as well if this game becomes a slog — they rank 17th in the nation in average height with a tall starting five leading the way while Arizona State ranks 180th in average height. The Sun Devils are erratic and inconsistent. While they have high-profile wins against Arizona and Creighton, they lost to Texas Southern along with three other Pac-12 teams who did not make the Big Dance. Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Sun Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court. Nevada has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Nevada Wolf Pack (704) plus the points versus the Arizona State (703). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-15-23 |
Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati -5 |
Top |
72-81 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (716) minus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (715) in the First Round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (21-12) lost in the Semifinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament to Houston by a 69-48 score as a 9.5-point underdog on Saturday. Virginia Tech (19-14) got eliminated in the ACC Tournament in a 97-77 loss to North Carolina State as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati shot a season-low 25.5% from the field against the Cougars. They also allowed Houston to make 50.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. The NIT presents this team some measure of redemption from that disappointing performance. The Bearcats have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 straight games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 20 or more points. They get this game at home where they have a 15-3 record with a +15.9 net point differential — and they rank 36th in the nation in their last ten games when playing on their home court. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or lower on the road. Virginia Tech had a 13-4 record at home — but they were only 6-10 away from home. In their 11 true road games in hostile environments, the Hokies were only 2-9 — and they ranked 201st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. What drags this team down the most when playing in those road games is their interior defense as they allow their home hosts to make 54.2% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 283rd in the nation. The Hokies have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road — and they are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 tournament games. 25* CBB First Round NIT Game of the Year with Cincinnati Bearcats (716) minus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (715). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-14-23 |
Mississippi State -2 v. Pittsburgh |
|
59-60 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (701) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (702) in the First Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (21-12) enters the Big Dance having lost two of their last three games after their 72-49 loss to Alabama as an 8-point underdog in the SEC Tournament on Friday. Pittsburgh (22-11) has lost three of their last four games after their 96-69 loss to Duke as a 5.5-point underdog in the ACC Tournament on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State is not a good shooting team — but their 31.0% shooting percentage against the Crimson Tide in the Quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament was the worst shooting effort in their last 19 games. The advanced metrics do indicate that the Bulldogs should be getting a visit from the Regression Gods regarding their expected field goal percentage eventually matching up to their actual field goal percentage this season. Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 50 points in their last game. Additionally, the Bulldogs are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a loss by 20 or more points. Mississippi State plays defense at an elite level. Not only do they rank sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency but have the lowest Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation when playing away from home in their last ten games. The Bulldogs also rank 18th in the nation by pulling down 34.4% of their missed shots on the road — and the Panthers allow their opponents to pull down 34% of their missed shots when playing away from home, ranking 344th in the nation. Pittsburgh is just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a loss by 20 or more points. They are also 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 90 or more points in their last game. And while the Panthers allowed the Blue Devils to make 62.1% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort of their season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing their previous opponent to nail 55% or more of their shots. Pittsburgh ranks 218th in the nation in their last ten games away from home in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
FINAL TAKE: The Panthers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games in the NCAA Tournament. Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 10* CBB Mississippi State-Pittsburgh truTV Special with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (701) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-12-23 |
Memphis +6 v. Houston |
Top |
75-65 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (657) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (658) in the Finals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Memphis (25-8) has won five of their last six games after their 94-54 victory against Tulane as a 6.5-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament yesterday. Houston (31-2) has won 13 games in a row after their 69-48 victory against Cincinnati as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis flexed their muscles yesterday by nailing 13 of 30 (43.3%) shots from behind the arc while holding the Green Wave to just 25.8% shooting in their dominant 40-point victory. That is a great sign for them this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival. The challenge gets much greater now against the number one team in the nation in this Cougars team — but the Tigers’ style of play makes them a dangerous underdog. If Memphis’ shots are not falling, they create additional scoring opportunities by crashing the offensive glass and forcing turnovers. They rank 98th in the nation by pulling down 31.0% of their missed shots. They rank 41st in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.1% of their opponent’s possessions. Houston is a dominant rebounding team that out-rebounds their opponents by +7.3 Rebounds-Per-Game — but the Tigers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last nine games after 15 games in the season against teams who out-rebound their opponents by +7.0 or more RPG. Head coach Penny Hardaway’s team has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against teams winning 80% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 135-139.5-point range. Houston is a great team — but we are betting numbers. They played their best defensive game in their last 27 contests by holding the Bearcats to 25.5% shooting. The Cougars have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points. And while Houston crushed East Carolina by a 60-46 score in the quarterfinals of this tournament on Friday, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two games in a row by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning nine or more games in a row. Houston does have some weaknesses that should contribute to this being a close game. They foul too much by ranking 285th in the nation in defensive foul rate — and Memphis makes 75.2% of their free throws. They only make 34.8% of their 3-pointers, ranking 137th in the nation. And they are vulnerable to good rebounding teams as they allow their opponents to rebound 27.3% of their missed shots, ranking 125th in the nation. And while the Tigers hold their opponents to 40.5% shooting, Houston has failed to cover the point spread 6 in their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who hold their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting.
FINAL TAKE: Houston swept the two regular-season meetings between these teams — but Memphis has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with double-revenge. The Cougars won the first game at home by a 72-64 score but the Tigers were without Kendric Davis in that game. Houston eked out a 67-65 win in the rematch last Sunday with Davis scoring 26 points for the Cougars. Memphis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 opportunities to exact some same-season revenge. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the Memphis Tigers (657) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (658). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-11-23 |
Tulane v. Memphis -5.5 |
Top |
54-94 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (622) minus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (621) in the Semifinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Memphis (24-8) has won four of their last five games after their 81-76 victory against Central Florida as a 5.5-point favorite yesterday in the Quarterfinals of this tournament. Tulane (20-10) has won three games in a row with their 82-76 victory against Wichita State as a 2.5-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis is a reliable team when playing away from home since they are not dependent on hot shooting. They pull down 31.0% of their missed shots, ranking 100 in the nation — and they should own the glass against this Green Wave team that allows their opponents to rebound 30.4% of their missed shots, ranking 273rd in the nation. The Tigers also create additional scoring possessions by forcing turnovers in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking second in the American Athletic Conference. Memphis ranks 14th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games when playing for the second time in three days. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, while the Tigers have won seven of their last nine games, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 road games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Memphis has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games played in March. Tulane held the Shockers to 37.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last nine games. But the Green Wave rank just 135th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They had not covered the point spread in five straight games before yesterday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. This is the first time Tulane is not the favorite in their last six games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when favored in their two previous games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after being favored in at least three games in a row before this one. The Green Wave risks being fatigued in this game as well as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with one day or less of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing for the third or more time in seven days. Memphis sacrifices defensive rebounding for getting out on the fast break — making them vulnerable to teams who crash the offensive glass. But this is not Tulane who ranks 361st in the nation by rebounding only 18.9% of their missed shots. The Green Wave have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Tulane swept the two regular season games between these two teams — shooting 52.4% and 48.3% from the field in both games despite a 46.7% field goal percentage for the season. After upsetting the Tigers at home by a 96-89 score on January 1st, the Green Wave followed that up with a 90-89 score in Memphis as a 7-point underdog in that game. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games when avenging a loss by three points or less. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Memphis Tigers (622) minus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (621). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-10-23 |
Duke v. Miami-FL +3 |
|
85-78 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (850) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (849) in the Semifinals of the ACC Tournament. THE SITUATION: Miami (25-6) has won nine of their last ten games after their 74-72 victory against Wake Forest as a 6.5-point favorite in the ACC Tournament Quarterfinals yesterday. Duke (24-8) is on a seven-game winning streak after their 96-69 win against Pittsburgh yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES PLUS THE POINTS: The Blue Demons nailed a season-high 62.1% of their shots yesterday afternoon — but Duke has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Blue Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by 20 or more points. Duke has still failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Miami has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a point spread in their previous game. Furthermore, the Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Miami has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season games with the Hurricanes winning the most recent contest by an 81-59 score on February 6th. Duke has revenge on their minds — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss. 20* CBB Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (850) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (849). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-10-23 |
Temple +5.5 v. Cincinnati |
|
54-84 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (823) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (824) in the Quarterfinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Temple (16-15) lost two of their last three games to conclude their regular season after an 83-82 loss at Tulane as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (20-11) won three of their last four games to close out their regular season with a 97-74 victory against SMU as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: The Owls allowed the Green Wave to make 50.9% of their shots last Sunday which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. They should tighten things up on the defensive end of the court. Temple is 14-5-2 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, they are 5-1-1 ATS. Cincinnati is just 23-50-3 ATS in their last 76 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after a point spread win. Cincinnati has a 14-3 record when playing at home — but they experience the 261st biggest drop of Adjusted Net Efficiency in the nation when then going on the road on neutral courts or hostile environments.
FINAL TAKE: These two team split their two regular season games after Cincinnati avenged a 70-61 loss on New Year’s Day with an 88-83 win in overtime on their home court. The Owls have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities to avenge a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Temple Owls (823) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (824). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-09-23 |
Mississippi State -4.5 v. Florida |
|
69-68 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (757) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (758) in the second round of the SEC Tournament. THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (20-11) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 77-72 upset loss at Vanderbilt as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. Florida (16-15) has won two in a row after a 79-67 victory against LSU as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State allowed the Gators to nail 49.1% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort in 17 games going back to January 3rd at Tennessee when the Volunteers nailed 69.2% of their shots against them. The Bulldogs are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games after losing their previous game — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset loss in their previous game. Mississippi State’s style of play translates well to neutral court environments. They play ferocious defense as they rank seventh in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also have a good Plan B if their shots are not falling as they pull down 35.1% of their missed shots, ranking 18th in the nation. The Gators are vulnerable in this area as they rank 12th in the SEC by allowing their opponents to pull down 34.5% of their missed shots. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games when playing for the second time in eight days. I do not like the Gators’ style of play when it comes to winning single-elimination tournaments. If their shots are not falling, they can get into trouble since they do not create additional scoring opportunities. They are last in the SEC by pulling down 22.9% of their missed shots. They only force turnovers in 16.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking seventh in the conference. And they only make 31.2% of their 3-pointers in conference play, ranking 11th in the SEC. To compound matters, Florida only ranks seventh in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. It is not surprising that the Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Mississippi State got upset at home against Florida by a 61-59 score on January 21st — but the Bulldogs have then covered the point spread in 39 of their last 62 games when avenging an upset loss. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (757) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (758). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-08-23 |
St. Peter's v. Rider -6.5 |
Top |
70-62 |
Loss |
-107 |
5 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Rider Broncs (692) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (691) in the Quarterfinals of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. THE SITUATION: Rider (16-13) has lost two of their last three games after an 80-78 loss to Iona as a 7-point underdog on Saturday. Saint Peter’s (13-17) has won three of their last four games after a 70-52 upset win against Fairfield as a 2-point underdog yesterday in the first round of this tournament. This game is being played on a neutral court at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCS MINUS THE POINTS: Saint Peter’s has registered two straight upset victories after they ended their regular season on Saturday by beating Siena by one point — but bettors are making a mistake if they think this team is poised to enjoy another strong March Madness run like last year when they reached the Elite Eight. Shaheen Holloway parlayed that supreme coaching job to get the Seton Hal gig — and the players left the program along with him en masse. In all, nine players transferred including all five starters from that team and the top-six scorers from the group that lost to North Carolina in the Elite Eight. So when bettors see that the Peacocks have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games played on a neutral court, the only neutral court game this new group played under new head coach Bashir Mason, formerly of Wagner, was yesterday. They held the Stags to just 37.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last seven games. Yet this team still ranks 287th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games and they finished 9th in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference in that metric. A letdown is likely as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games this season after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win. Furthermore, Saint Peter’s has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 8 games played with one day or less of rest, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of those contests. The Peacocks made 48.0% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting mark in their last three games. This team can’t score — they rank 325th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Their effective field goal percentage of 44.1% ranks 359th in the nation — and they only make 29.3% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 354th in the nation. They led the MAAC in offensive rebounding pulling down 35.4% of their missed shots — but the Broncs rank third in the conference by holding their opponents to rebounding 27.5% of their misses. Additionally, the Peacocks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 120s. Rider settled for second place in the MAAC with a 13-7 conference record after their 2-point loss to the regular season champions in the Gaels with head coach Rick Pitino’s team avenging an earlier loss to the Broncs. The Broncs should rebound tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss to a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Rider has size with three of their six regulars 6’7 or taller. They were second in the conference by making 50.6% of their shots inside the arc. They also ranked second in the MAAC by pulling down 33.4% of their missed shots — and in their last ten games away from home, they rank seventh in the nation by rebounding 36.6% of their misses. The Peacocks are vulnerable on the defensive glass with their opponents rebounding 32.3% of their missed shots, ranking 321st in the nation. The laptops indicate that Rider has value on the road — especially as of late. While one power rankings system places them 207th in the nation, that mark jumps to 155th in the nation when playing away from home in their last ten games. Those are the teams I am looking for this week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in March.
FINAL TAKE: The Broncs swept both games in the regular season after a 73-60 victory at Saint Peter’s as a 3.5-point favorite last Thursday — and the Peacocks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities for revenge. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Game of the Year with Rider Broncs (692) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (691). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-07-23 |
Fairleigh Dickinson v. Merrimack -3.5 |
Top |
66-67 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Merrimack Warriors (306566) minus the points versus the Farleigh Dickinson Knights (306565) in the Finals of the Northeast Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Merrimack (17-16) reached the championship game of this tournament with their 71-60 victory against Sacred Heart as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. Farleigh Dickinson (19-14) has won four of their last five games after a 70-50 victory against St. Francis-PA as a 4-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Merrimack is not eligible to play in the NCAA Tournament they have yet to complete four years as a Division I member which is an NCAA regulation. Given that they will be motivated to not only claim the Northeast Conference championship but also avenge two losses to the Knights in the regular season, this is the Warriors’ Super Bowl — and they get to play this contest in front of their home crowd. Merrimack has won ten games in a row — and 17 of their last 20 contests coming into this game. While they rank 282nd in the nation in one of the power ranking systems I use, they rise to 180th in their last ten contests using those metrics. That bodes well for them tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against a conference opponent. The Warriors have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning three or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning five or more games in a row. This is a very good defensive team that leads the nation by forcing turnovers in 26.2% of their opponent’s possessions. They also rank 101st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that is more difficult than it first appears because the Northeast Conference is statistically the worst conference in Division I. Looking at the conference numbers is probably more illuminating for this contest — and Merrimack not only leads the way in forcing turnovers but they are first in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and second with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.9% while ranking in the top two in 3-point and 2-point defense. Admittedly, their national offensive numbers are lousy — but they rank fifth in the Northeast Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and fourth in the conference when measuring efficiency on their home court. They make a very healthy 38.0% of their shots from behind the arc at home against conference opponents — so this team is fine. They have an 8-6 record at home with a +6.5 net point differential — and it is the play of their defense that stands out. They hold their guests to 38.5% shooting which results in only 56.4 Points-Per-Game. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home when favored by 3.5 to 6 points. Farleigh Dickinson has clinched their ticket to the Big Dance by reaching this game and facing a team ineligible to advance — so while I still expect them to play hard, a little bit of the edge is off since this is not a truly “do or die” situation. As it is, the Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by 15 or more points. They have covered two of their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering twice in their last three contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing for the third time in seven days. Farleigh Dickinson held St. Francis (PA) to 40.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. But this is one of the least effective defensive teams in the nation — they rank 361st in the nation and eighth in the Northeast Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Knights’ opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 56.2% ranks 358th in the nation — and they simply do not have the excuse of their non-conference schedule since they rank ninth in the Northeast Conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 55.9%. Fairleigh Dickinson relies on their offensive attack to win games — but their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 108.3 at home drops to 105.2 when they are playing away from home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in a tournament setting.
FINAL TAKE: The Knights won the first meeting between these teams on December 29th with a 71-63 win at home before following that up with a 78-71 upset win at Merrimack as a 2.5-point underdog on January 28th. Fairleigh Dickinson shot 53.7% from the field in that rematch including a sizzling 10 of 22 (45.4%) clip from behind the arc that is not likely sustainable tonight. The Warriors blew second-half leads in both games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 opportunities to avenge an upset loss. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Game of the Year with the Merrimack Warriors (306566) minus the points versus the Farleigh Dickinson Knights (306565). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-23 |
Cleveland State -2 v. Wisc-Milwaukee |
|
93-80 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cleveland State Vikings (871) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (872) in the Semifinals of the Horizon League Tournament. THE SITUATION: Cleveland State (20-12) has won six of their last seven games after their 75-70 victory in overtime as a 6.5-point favorite on Thursday. Wisconsin-Milwaukee (21-10) has won three games in a row after their 81-70 upset victory against Wright State as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland State beat Robert Morris despite them shooting 43.5% from the field — not a bad defensive number but it was the best a team has shot against the Vikings in their last eight games. Cleveland State ranks second in the Horizon League with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 49.4%. The Vikings have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games. Cleveland State remains effective when playing away from home since they work hard at generating additional scoring opportunities for themselves. They rank 17th in the nation by pulling down 35.1% of their missed shots, ranking 17th in the nation. They also rank 53rd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.9% of their opponent’s possessions. The Panthers are vulnerable in both of these areas. They allow their opponents to pull down 32.9% of their missed shots, ranking 338th in the nation. They also turn the ball over in 21.9% of their possessions, ranking 347th in the nation. Milwaukee pulled off their second-straight upset in this tournament with their victory against the Raiders. But while they have scored at least 81 points in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 75 or more points in two straight games. And while their last game finished Under the 161.5-point total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after playing an Under in their last contest. The Panthers benefitted from a 9-2 record in conference play in games decided by five points or less — and that suggests they are overvalued relative to their overall record. This is also a team that thrived when playing at home — but they rank 358th in the nation in their decline in their play away from home in Net Adjusted Efficiency.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee swept both games against the Vikings in their two regular-season games — and both were upset victories which should have the Vikings very fired up for this third encounter. Cleveland State has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when playing with revenge. These two teams last played on February 25th with the Panthers pulling off an 81-72 victory as a 1.5-point home underdog — but the Vikings have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when avenging a loss on the road and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when avenging a loss where they allowed 75 or more points. 10* CBB Monday Late Show Bailout with the Cleveland State Vikings (871) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-05-23 |
South Florida +8.5 v. Wichita State |
Top |
49-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the South Florida Bulls (781) plus the points versus the Wichita State Shockers (782). THE SITUATION: South Florida (14-16) has won three games in a row after a 72-56 win against Tulsa as a 14-point favorite on Wednesday. Wichita State (15-14) has lost two of their last three games after an 83-66 loss at Houston as a 17.5-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: South Florida defeated the Golden Hurricane despite only shooting 42.4% from the field. The Bulls have won four of their last five games with them shooting 48.9% from the field in those contests and scoring +4.2 Points-Per-Game above their season average. They have also held their last five opponents to just 40.9% shooting. South Florida has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 34 of their last 52 games on the road after beating a conference rival in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a point spread cover in their last game. On the road, the Bulls are outscoring their opponents by +0.1 PPG despite a 5-7 record. They are 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 games on the road with nine-point spread covers in their last ten games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. South Florida is second in the American Athletic Conference by pulling down 33.2% of their missed shots. The Shockers are vulnerable in this department as they rank sixth in the AAC by allowing their conference opponents to rebound 29.2% of their missed shots. Wichita State lost by 17 points to the Cougars despite making 64.9% of their shots to waste their best shooting effort of the season. The Shockers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a point spread cover. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. They return home where they are 7-9 this season. Wichita State is 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 games at home after failing to cover the point spread in 12 of their 16 home games this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 26 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. The Shockers are not a good defensive team — and they are regressing in that area. They rank ninth in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to score 79.2 PPG which is +10.3 PPG above their season average. Their last five opponents have made 46.9% of their shots despite their 40.8 defensive field goal percentage for the season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 140s.
FINAL TAKE: South Florida may be without their seven-footer Russel Tchewa who missed the last game with an undisclosed ailment. This situation still warrants an investment with the market adjusting by making the Bulls a bigger underdog. Wichita State won the first meeting between these two teams by a 70-66 score as a 2-point road underdog — and the Bulls have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road when avenging a loss. 10* CBB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the South Florida Bulls (781) plus the points versus the Wichita State Shockers (782). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-04-23 |
SE Missouri State +1.5 v. Tennessee Tech |
Top |
89-82 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (757) plus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (758) in the Finals of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Southeast Missouri State (18-16) has won three games in a row after their 65-58 upset victory against Morehead State as a 4.5-point underdog yesterday. Tennessee Tech (16-16) also advanced in their semifinals contest in this tournament with their 78-63 upset victory against Tennessee-Martin as a 1.5-point underdog. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Ford Center in Evansville, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Southeast Missouri is tough to beat in these neutral court games under third-year head coach Brad Korn. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court including all five of their games this season. Korn’s style of play for his team translates into these situations. First, Southeast Missouri plays at a blistering pace — they rank sixth in the nation with 73.0 adjusted possessions per game. Second, they pressure the basketball to force turnovers — they lead the Ohio Valley Conference by forcing turnovers in 19.4% of their opponent’s possessions. The Redhawks are also a reliable shooting team near the basket as they lead the conference by making 54.7% of their shots inside the arc — and this percentage actually improves when they are playing away from home where they are making 55.4% of their 2-pointers. Southeast Missouri is rolling now — and they have covered the points spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where neither team scored more than 65 points. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when playing without a day of rest. And in their last 17 games with the Total set in the 140s, Southeast Missouri State has covered the point spread in 12 of these contests. Tennessee Tech may be primed for a letdown after winning and covering the point spread in three straight games. The Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two or more games in a row after conference rivals — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. Tennessee Tech has won and covered the point spread in six of their last eight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. The Golden Eagles force turnovers as well — but they are not as effective at it as the Redhawks who also do a better job of protecting the basketball. Tennessee Tech then has a Plan B problem. They do not create additional scoring opportunities as they are last in the conference by pulling down 22.7% of their missed shots. They do shoot plenty of 3s — and they nail an impressive 40.4% of these shots when playing at home, ranking 21st in the nation. But when playing away from home, their 3-point shooting plummets to just a 34.6% clip, ranking 101st in the nation. They only made 10 of their 30 (33%) shots from behind the arc yesterday. And while Southeast Missouri State at least makes their 2s, the Golden Eagles rank 10th in the Ohio Valley by making just 44.4% of their shots inside the arc. Tennessee Tech has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court as a favorite of up to three points or as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings with the Golden Eagles winning the most recent contest by an 82-80 score on their home court on February 24th — but Southeast Missouri State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when avenging a same-season loss. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year is with the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (757) plus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (758). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-23 |
Bellarmine +3 v. North Florida |
Top |
76-74 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Bellarmine Knights (306519) plus the points versus the North Florida Ospreys (306520) in the first round of the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Bellarmine (14-17) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 79-67 loss at North Florida as a 5-point underdog on Friday. North Florida (14-16) has won two in a row and six of their last eight with the victory. This game is being played on a neutral court at Liberty Arena in Lynchburg, Virginia.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Bellarmine should respond with a strong effort with this quick turnaround and opportunity for revenge from their loss on Friday. The Knights have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after a point spread loss. Bellarmine stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 road games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road against Atlantic Sun rivals. The Knights are a solid team when playing away from home because of their ability to make shots inside the perimeter — they rank 63rd in the nation by making 53.2% of their 2-pointers. Bellarmine has only covered the point spread once in their last four games — but they then have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. North Florida loves to shoot from 3-point land — the “Birds of Trey” rank 7th in the nation by attempting 47.6% of their field goal attempts from behind the arc. In their win on Friday, they nailed 12 of their 24 shots (50%) from 3-point range despite carrying a 32.3% mark from 3-point range when playing at home. That hot shooting is not likely to continue tonight with the pressure on. As it is, the Ospreys rank 116th in the nation with a 33.4% shooting percentage away from home from deep — and they rank only 10th in the Atlantic Sun with a 34.0% mark from behind the arc on the road in conference play. Bellarmine ranks 3rd in the Atlantic Sun by holding their opponents to just 34.3% shooting from 3-point range. North Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after nailing 50% or more of their 3-pointers in their last game. The Ospreys have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread win. Additionally, North Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two in a row after conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after winning four or five their last five games. The Ospreys have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Bellarmine head coach Scott Davenport is a gem who oversaw this team finishing no worse than second place in the Atlantic Sun in their first two seasons in Division I before settling for a 9-9 conference record this year. The Knights won the conference tournament last year (but did not get a bid to the Big Dance with the regular season champion earning the automatic bid). Bellarmine returned two starters and 56.2% of the minutes from that team — and it has been senior Garrett Tipton, a reserve who averaged under 15 minutes per game last year, who has stepped in as their best player this season. This is a battle-tested team that played UCLA, Kentucky, and Duke in the non-conference part of their schedule to prepare for this moment. The Knights have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to avenge a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Underdog of the Year with the Bellarmine Knights (306519) plus the points versus the North Florida Ospreys (306520). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-23 |
Manhattan +9 v. Quinnipiac |
Top |
72-70 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Manhattan Jaspers (821) plus the points versus the Quinnipiac Bobcats (822). THE SITUATION: Manhattan (10-16) has lost two of their last three games after an 81-58 upset loss at home to Marist as a 4-point favorite on Friday. Quinnipiac (19-9) has won two in a row after their 90-88 victory in double-overtime against Rider as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JASPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Manhattan should rebound from their disastrous effort on Friday. They only made 32.8% of their shots which was the worst shooting of their season. They also allowed the Red Foxes to shoot 51.8% from the field which was the worst defensive performance in their last seven games. But the Jaspers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a loss by 20 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Manhattan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing for the second time in three days — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing for just the second time in the last seven days (their previous game was last Sunday). The Jaspars lead the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.5% of their opponents' possessions — and the Bobcats are vulnerable in this area as they rank 203rd in the nation by turning the ball over in 18.5% of their possessions. This ability to create extra scoring possessions helps them play better away from home — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 140s. Furthermore, Manhattan has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. Quinnipiac has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after beating two straight conference opponents. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after allowing 85 or more points in their last game. Additionally, the Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when playing for just the second time in eight days. While they are shooting 43.1% from the field this season, that mark has dropped to a 40.7% clip in their last five games. Furthermore, their last five opponents have made 46.1% of their shots against them as compared to their 41.4% opponent’s field goal percentage for the season. They stay at home where they are 9-3 this season but only outscoring their guests by +7.0 Points-Per-Game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. They are just 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. Furthermore, Quinnipiac has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40%.
FINAL TAKE: Manhattan will be looking to avenge an 84-65 loss at home to Quinnipiac as a 5-point underdog on January 1st — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 opportunities for revenge. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year is with the Manhattan Jaspers (821) plus the points versus the Quinnipiac Bobcats (822). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-23 |
Siena +3 v. Rider |
|
66-69 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Siena Saints (871) plus the points versus the Rider Broncs (872). THE SITUATION: Siena (17-10) was on a two-game winning streak before their 66-63 upset loss to Quinnipiac as a 2.5-point favorite last Friday. Rider (14-11) has lost two games in a row after their 90-88 loss at Quinnipiac as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: Siena made only 37.9% of their shots last Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. But the Saints have bounced back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss against a conference rival. Siena ranks second in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they go back on the road where they have a 9-6 record with a +2.8 net point differential. The Saints have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. They have also covered the point spread in 33 of their last 49 road games as an underdog of three points or less or as a pick ‘em. Siena has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Rider has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 85 or more points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games after a game where both teams scored 80 or more points. The Broncs return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games with the Total set in the 130-134.5 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games when favored or in a pick ‘em contest.
FINAL TAKE: Siena has registered impressive wins against Seton Hall and Iona this season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Rider has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Siena Saints (871) plus the points versus the Rider Broncs (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-23 |
Western Carolina +11.5 v. NC-Greensboro |
|
52-71 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Western Carolina Catamounts (675) plus the points versus the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (676). THE SITUATION: Western Carolina (16-13) has won four of their last five games after a 71-68 upset win at Mercer as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. UNC-Greensboro (19-10) has won five of their last six games after their 93-76 victory at UT-Chattanooga as a 3-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CATAMOUNTS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Carolina should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a victory against a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory as an underdog getting six or more points. They stay on the road where they are 8-8 with a net point differential of just -3.6 Points-Per-Game. The Catamounts have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road with the Total set in the 130s. Western Carolina should match up well against the Spartans who thrive in creating additional scoring opportunities. UNC-Greensboro leads the Southern Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.1% of their opponent’s possessions and they are second in the conference by pulling down 30.7% of their missed shots on offense. But Western Carolina ranks 38th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 16.0% of their possessions — and that mark lowers to a 14.6% clip in conference play. The Catamounts lead the Southern Conference by limiting those opponents to rebounding just 24.7% of their missed shots. The Spartans nailed 55.9% of their shots on Saturday in their win against the Moccasins which was the best shooting effort in their last 17 games. But UNC-Greensboro has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring 90 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after a win on the road where they scored 85 or more points. The Spartans return home where they have a 10-3 record — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: UNC-Greensboro crushed Western Carolina earlier this season on December 29th by a 72-47 score — but they only pulled down 29.0% of their missed shots and forced turnovers in 14.9% of the Catamounts’ possessions which was below their season averages in both categories. That 25-point loss can be attributed to Western Carolina shooting just 20% from the field which was the worst shooting effort of their season (by far). The Catamounts have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 10* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Western Carolina Catamounts (675) plus the points versus the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (676). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-18-23 |
Lafayette +4.5 v. Army |
Top |
43-53 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Lafayette Leopards (306605) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (306606). THE SITUATION: Lafayette (9-19) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 73-70 upset loss at Loyola-Maryland as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday. Army (14-14) has lost three of their last four games after a 93-86 loss at Colgate as a 12-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LEOPARDS PLUS THE POINTS: Lafayette allows the Greyhounds to make 53.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Leopards lead the Patriot League in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — so they should play better on that end of the court today. While that game with Loyola-Maryland flew Over the 124-point Total, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last contest. Lafayette should bounce back today as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less in their last contest. And while the Leopards have lost four of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. Lafayette usually dictates the pace of play in their games as they rank 356th in the nation by averaging 20.0 seconds per possession. The 63.2 adjusted possessions per game in Patriot League play is the lowest mark in the conference. The Leopards also lead the Patriot League by forcing turnovers in 21.4% of their opponent’s possessions — and the Black Knights are vulnerable in this area. Army is sixth in the conference by turning the ball over in 20.1% of their possessions. Lafayette has a 3-4 record in the Patriot League when playing on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their 17 road games this season. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. Additionally, the Leopards have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 road games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after a point spread loss. Army nailed 56.9% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last nine contests. But they also allowed Colgate to shoot 55.0% from the field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing 90 or more points in their last contest. And in their last 9 games after a game where 175 or more combined points were scored, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of those contests. Now after playing the last two games on the road where they were the underdog, the Black Knights return home where their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency drops from ranking 167th on the season overall to just 229th in the nation on their home court. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after being the underdog in their previous two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored or as a pick ‘em. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Army is an elite defensive rebounding team that leads the Patriot League by holding their opponents to pulling down just 22.8% of their missed shots — and they rank seventh in the nation in defensive rebounding when playing at home. But alas, Lafayette sacrifices crashing the offensive glass for getting back on defense — so this will not be a big edge for the Black Knights today. Army allows their opponents to make 45.3% of their shots — and their last five opponents are making 47.0% of their shots against them which is resulting in them allowing 75.0 Points-Per-Game, up 4.3 net PPG above their season average. The Black Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Lafayette will be looking to avenge an 82-65 upset loss at home to Army on January 2nd as a 1.5-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to avenge a loss at home. 25* CBB Patriot League Underdog of the Year with the Lafayette Leopards (306605) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (306606). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-16-23 |
Southern Indiana v. Arkansas-Little Rock +2.5 |
|
82-81 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (806) plus the points versus the Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles (805). THE SITUATION: Little Rock (8-19) has lost three of their last four games after their 84-61 loss at UT-Martin as a 5.5-point underdog last Saturday. Southern Indiana (14-13) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 74-64 win against Lindenwood as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: Little Rock shot only 36.4% from the field on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 18 games. They only made 2 of their 19 (10.5%) of their shots from behind the arc in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games after failing to make 20% or more of their 3-pointers in their last game. The Trojans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 games after a loss by 20 or more points. They return home where they have a 6-4 record with a +5.2 net point differential. Little Rock is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games as an underdog of six points or less or as a pick ‘em. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last six games against teams with a winning record, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these contests. Southern Indiana held Lindenwood to just 40.4% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. They go back on the road where they are 4-10 this season — and they rank 9th in the Ohio Valley Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Screaming Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Southern Indiana has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. Furthermore, the Screaming Eagles are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Little Rock will be looking to avenge a 74-67 loss at Southern Indiana on January 12th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 10* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (806) plus the points versus the Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles (805). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-15-23 |
Army +12 v. Colgate |
|
86-93 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (306551) plus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (306552). THE SITUATION: Army (14-13) has lost two of their last three games after their 70-53 loss at Navy as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Colgate (19-8) has won two in a row and 13 of their last 14 contests after their 76-56 win at Bucknell as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Army only made 30.8% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort of the season. The Black Knights should shoot better tonight as they rank 30th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.0%. They are facing a Raiders team that ranks 261st in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 52.0%. Army has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 60 points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a loss on the road where they did not score more than 60 points. The Black Knights have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. Army is outstanding in defending their defensive glass as well — they rank 19th in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down only 23.6% of their missed shots. The Black Knights stay on the road where they are only getting outscored by -0.7 Points-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Colgate made 7 of their 14 shots from behind the arc on Saturday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after nailing 50% or more of their shots from 3-point range in their last contest. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Colgate crushed Lehigh by an 81-53 score in their previous contest — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row by 10 or more points. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Army will be looking to avenge a 77-75 loss at home to Colgate as a 7.5 point underdog on January 9th — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. 10* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Army Black Knights (306551) plus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (306552). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-23 |
Nebraska v. Rutgers -13.5 |
|
82-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (632) minus the points versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (631). THE SITUATION: Rutgers (16-9) has lost two games in a row after their 69-60 loss at Illinois as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Nebraska (12-14) has won two of their last three contests after their 73-63 upset win against Wisconsin in overtime as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SCARLET KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Rutgers only made 34.8% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst-shooting effort in their last six games. They also allowed the Fighting Illini to make 48.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last 18 contests. Rutgers ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — so they should play better tonight. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they are 13-2 with a net point differential of +21.1 net Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 34.7% shooting which results in 52.8 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home when playing for just the second time in the last seven days. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. Nebraska held the Badgers to just 36.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last seven contests. But the Cornhuskers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after upsetting their last opponent by double-digits as a home underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games after upsetting a Big Ten rival as a home dog. Additionally, Nebraska has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they are just 3-11 with a net point differential of -10.7 net PPG. They only score 62.4 PPG on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games away from home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road with the Total set in the 130s. The Cornhuskers are too loose with the basketball as they turn the ball over in 19.0% of their possessions, ranking 227th in the nation. Now they face a Scarlet Knights team that ranks 22nd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.7% of their opponent’s possessions.
FINAL TAKE: I don’t love laying 13-14 points — but we are dealing with an angry Rutgers team that ranks number one in terms of Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home according to one of the metrics systems I follow. Those same analytics rank the Cornhuskers at 344th in the nation when playing away from home. The Scarlet Knights have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when a double-digit favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when laying 12.5 or more points. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (632) minus the points versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (631). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-12-23 |
Temple +9 v. Memphis |
|
77-86 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (829) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (830). THE SITUATION: Temple (14-11) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in a 72-71 upset loss at SMU as a 1.5-point favorite. Memphis (18-6) has won six of their last seven games with their 99-81 win at South Florida as a 6-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: Temple should rebound with a good effort this afternoon as they are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 games after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 straight games after not covering the point spread in their last two contests. The Owls stay competitive because of their play on defense. They rank 2nd in the American Athletic Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their defense travels. Temple ranks 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road in hostile environments. They are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road — and they are a decisive 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em. They are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Memphis is just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. The Tigers can struggle to cover the point spread when laying plenty of points for a couple of reasons. First, they foul way too much — not only are they last in the American Athletic Conference in defensive foul rate, but they rank 304th in the nation in putting their opponents on the line. The Owls should take advantage here as they rank 22nd in the nation by nailing 76.6% of their shots at the charity stripe. Second, Memphis gives up too many second-chance scoring opportunities as their opponents pull down 32.0% of their missed shots, ranking 314th in the nation. Temple is a solid offensive rebounding team as they rank fifth in the conference by pulling down 30.5% of their missed shots. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning road record. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Temple will be seeking to avenge a 61-59 loss to Memphis on January 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when motivated by revenge. 20* CBB Temple-Memphis ESPN2 Special with the Temple Owls (829) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (830). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-11-23 |
Seton Hall +5.5 v. Villanova |
Top |
54-58 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Seton Hall Pirates (779) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (780). THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (15-10) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 75-62 loss to Creighton as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Villanova (11-13) ended a three-game losing streak with their 81-65 victory against DePaul as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE POINTS: Seton Hall played their worst defensive game of the season as the Bluejays nailed 61.4% of their shots on Wednesday — the highest opponent's field goal percentage they allowed all season. The Pirates still rank 20th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season. They have two impressive victories against UConn and Rutgers who rank 6th and 17th in the nation in the KenPom rankings. They should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a double-digit loss. They go back on the road where they have a 7-6 record this season — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games away from home. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 130 to 134.5 point range. Seton Hall ranks 10th in the nation in getting to the free throw line — and the Wildcats are vulnerable in this area as they rank sixth in the Big East in defensive free throw rate. Villanova has taken a step or two back in their first season since their legendary head coach Jay Wright retired. Under first-year head coach Kyle Neptune, the team’s best win was against Oklahoma which only ranks 60th in Ken Pomeroy’s metrics ranking system. The Wildcats rank just 103rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They made 51.7% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best offensive effort in their last six contests. But Villanova has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. And while their hot shooting helped that game finish Over the Total set at 141 for that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They now have a 7-3 record at home — but they are only outscoring their opponents by +5.8 Points-Per-Game in those contests which include the bottom-floor teams in the Big East conference. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. After shooting 36.0% from behind the arc last season in conference play, they are only making 32.4% of their 3-pointers this season, ranking 11th in the Big East.
FINAL TAKE: Villanova has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored. 25* CBB FS1-TV Game of the Month is with the Seton Hall Pirates (779) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (780). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-10-23 |
Fairfield +4.5 v. Rider |
|
57-58 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Fairfield Stags (877) plus the points versus the Rider Broncs (878). THE SITUATION: Fairfield (10-13) has lost three games in a row after their 70-61 loss to Iona as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Rider (13-9) has won seven games in a row after their 67-56 victory at Manhattan as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STAGS PLUS THE POINTS: Fairfield has rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after losing three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three in a row to a Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference opponent. The Stags are one of the best defensive units in the conference — and this helps them be competitive in road games. Fairfield ranks third in the MAAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also lead the conference with the lowest opponent free throw rate — and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.8% is the second-best in the MAAC. They have a 5-8 record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Additionally, the Stags have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 road games with the Total set in the 130s. Rider has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after winning at least three in a row versus conference rivals. The Broncs have a 6-2 record at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court. Furthermore, Rider has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games with the Total set in the 130-134.5 range. Additionally, the Broncs have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games when favored or listed as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Fairfield is looking to avenge a 78-69 upset loss at home to Rider as a 2.5-point favorite on January 29th — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Fairfield Stags (877) plus the points versus the Rider Broncs (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-09-23 |
UC-Santa Barbara -1 v. Long Beach State |
|
75-72 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (833) minus the point(s) versus Long Beach State (834). THE SITUATION: UC-Santa Barbara (18-4) had their five-game winning streak end in a 72-67 upset loss at CS-Northridge as a 13-point favorite on Saturday. Long Beach State (14-10) is on a six-game winning streak after a 93-88 victory at CS-Northridge as a pick ‘em on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GAUCHOS MINUS THE POINT(S): UC-Santa Barbara only shot 32.8% from the field on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 19 contests. The Gauchos have rebounded too over the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. UC-Santa Barbara leads the Big West Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank second in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They stay on the road where they have a 7-3 record in true road games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. The biggest weakness for the Gauchos is that they are last in the Big West by allowing their opponents to nail 37.4% of their shots from behind the arc — but the Beach struggles with their outside shooting as they are at the bottom of the conference with a 25.1% shooting percentage from 3-point range. Long Beach State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread win. The Beach has also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 58 games after allowing 85 or more points in their last contest. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Long Beach State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and UC-Santa Barbara has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (833) minus the point(s) versus Long Beach State (834). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-04-23 |
Gonzaga v. St. Mary's -2.5 |
Top |
70-78 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Saint Mary’s Gaels (822) minus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (821). THE SITUATION: Saint Mary’s (19-4) is on a ten-game winning streak after their 68-59 victory against San Francisco as a 12-point favorite on Thursday. Gonzaga (19-4) has won three in a row after their 88-70 victory against Santa Clara as a 13-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GAELS MINUS THE POINTS: Saint Mary’s only shot 32.7% from the field two days ago which was the worst shooting effort for them this season. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. This is their second game since last Saturday — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing for the second time in the last seven days. They stay at home where they make 46.8% of their shots while ranking 29th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But it is on the other end of the court where head coach Randy Bennett’s team thrives. The Gaels rank 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their stout defense helps them rank as the 4th best team in the nation when playing on their home court. They have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after not allowing more than 65 points in their last game. Saint Mary’s does not allow many second-chance scoring opportunities either — they lead the nation by holding their guests to rebounding only 17.7% of their missed shots when playing at home. They held the Dons to just six offensive rebounds on Thursday — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than five offensive rebounds in their last game. Gonzaga comes off one of their best games of the season in their 18-point win against the Broncos. They nailed 59.3% of their shots in what was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. And they held Santa Clara to 40.0% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last nine contests. But the Bulldogs are 6-17-3 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win on the road. They are also just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win and point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning three of their last four games. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% at home. Head coach Mark Few’s teams have some glaring weaknesses when compared to some of his recent teams. They are too dependent on scoring inside the arc since they only take 33.0% of their shots from outside the arc, the 291st lowest rate in the nation. And while they do make 57.5% of their shots inside the arc, that clip lowers to 54.3% when they are playing on the road. Now they face this Gaels’ defense that holds their opponents to just 43.5% shooting inside the arc, ranking 10th in the nation. Additionally, this is Few’s worst statistical defense at Gonzaga since the 2007-08 campaign with this group ranking 80th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. When playing on the road, their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency ranking plummets to 201st in the nation with the problem being that their opponents enjoy an effective field goal percentage of 56.3%, ranking 327th in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: Saint Mary’s beat Gonzaga by 10 points on their home court last season — but they will be looking to avenge their 82-69 loss to the Bulldogs in the West Coast Conference tournament on March 8th. Gonzaga is just 6-18-3 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Game of the Year with the Saint Mary’s Gaels (822) minus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (821). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-04-23 |
Wyoming v. San Jose State |
|
64-84 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Jose State Spartans (816) minus the point(s) versus the Wyoming Cowboys (815). THE SITUATION: San Jose State (13-9) has lost three of their last four games after their 72-51 loss at San Diego State as a 13.5-point underdog last Saturday. Wyoming (7-14) has won two of their last three games after their 85-62 victory against Fresno State as a 5-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINT(S): San Jose State made only 34.7% of their shots from the floor against the Aztecs last week which was the third-lowest shooting mark for them all season. San Jose State has rebounded to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a loss by 10 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a loss by 10 or more points on the road. And in their last 21 games after a point spread loss, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their games. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games this season — and they have covered the point spread in all 4 of their games at home when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. Wyoming made 50.9% of their shots on Tuesday in their 23-point win against the Bulldogs — and that was the second-best shooting mark in their last six games. They also held Fresno State to just 37.9% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they rank 322nd in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage in their four games when playing they are playing on their opponent’s home court this season. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in all 4 of their road games this season.
FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has won only one game away from home all season -- a 7-point victory against Howard on a neutral court on November 18th. In their last six games away from home since December 1st, they have lost all six games by at least five points with a net point differential of -15.3 Points-Per-Game. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with San Jose State Spartans (816) minus the point(s) versus the Wyoming Cowboys (815). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-03-23 |
Fairfield +4.5 v. Quinnipiac |
|
51-66 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Fairfield Stags (873) plus the points versus the Quinnipiac Bobcats (874). THE SITUATION: Fairfield (10-11) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 78-69 upset loss to Rider as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Quinnipiac (16-6) has won seven of their last eight games after a 72-66 victory against Marist as a 10.5-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STAGS PLUS THE POINTS: Fairfield should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when playing for just the second time in the last eight days. The Stags rank 2nd in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their defense travels as they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Fairfield ranks 19th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line. They also rank 24th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 30.0% shooting percentage from behind the arc — and they have been even stingier in conference play by holding their MAAC rivals to just a 26.3% shooting clip from 3-point range this season. They also rank 2nd in the conference in opponent free throw rate which will help against the Bobcats who lead the conference in free throw rate. Quinnipiac nailed 11 of their 22 shots from 3-point range on Tuesday — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after shooting 50% or better from 3-point range in their last game. The Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning three of their last four games. Quinnipiac stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games at home against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Fairfield Stags (873) plus the points versus the Quinnipiac Bobcats (874). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-23 |
North Carolina Central +5.5 v. Norfolk State |
|
71-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the North Carolina-Central Eagles (306503) plus the points versus the Norfolk State Spartans (306504). THE SITUATION: North Carolina-Central (10-10) has lost two games in a row after their 71-67 loss at Howard as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Norfolk State (14-7) has won five of their last seven contests after their 82-68 victory at South Carolina State as a 15-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: North Carolina-Central appears poised to be a feisty underdog in MEAC play after enduring the 23rd most difficult non-conference according to the numbers of metrics guru Ken Pomeroy. This is a battle-tested team that lost by just 12 points at Virginia and at Marquette. Howard made 52.0% of their shots against them on Saturday which was the worst defensive effort in their last ten games. The Eagles do lead the MEAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — so they should play better tonight in this matchup against the preseason conference favorite. North Carolina-Central is 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog. The Eagles were making 3-pointers earlier in the season — they rank 44th in the nation by nailing 37.2 of their shots from behind the arc when playing on the road. But they have gone cold in their outside shooting in conference play as they are only making 29.0% of their 3-pointers against MEAC foes. Head coach LeVelle Moton seems to have directed his team to take fewer 3s -- they shot 54.2% of their shots on Saturday despite making only 3 of 12 (25%) from 3-point range. What North Carolina-Central does well is force turnovers as they rank 75th in the nation by forcing their opponents to turn the ball over in 20.6% of their possessions. Pressure on the ball travels — and the Spartans are loose with the basketball by turning the ball over in 19.3% of their possessions, ranking 243rd in the nation — and that clip rises to 20.6% in conference play. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Norfolk State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. They stay at home where they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage at 40% or lower on the road. The Spartans' resume is very thin right now — their best victory was against Maryland-Eastern Shore who ranks 260th in the nation at KenPom. North Carolina-Central has beaten Gardner Webb and UNC-Asheville who rank 174th and 181st at KenPom.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have covered the points spread in 8 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and Norfolk State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when favored. 10* CBB Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the North Carolina-Central Eagles (306503) plus the points versus the Norfolk State Spartans (306504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-28-23 |
Auburn +4 v. West Virginia |
Top |
77-80 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (601) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (602). THE SITUATION: Auburn (16-4) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 79-63 upset loss to Texas A&M as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. West Virginia (12-8) has won two of their last three games after their 76-61 upset win at Texas Tech as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: This Big 12/SEC Challenge matchup features two teams with similar profiles. Both of these teams are tough to score on in the half-court while forcing turnovers and crashing the offensive glass. These two teams also foul too much and are not great shooting teams. Auburn should be motivated to earn a high-profile non-conference win after their flat effort against the Aggies. They only made 42.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They also allowed Texas A&M to nail 47.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 contests. The Tigers are an outstanding defensive team that ranks 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to just a 43.1% effective field goal percentage, ranking 5th in the nation, led by their perimeter defense. They hold their opponents to just a 25.7% mark from behind the arc, ranking 2nd best in the country. They should play better this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. And while they went into halftime trailing by a 45-30 score to the Aggies on Wednesday, they have then covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after trailing by 15 or more points at halftime in their previous game. They go back on the road where they rank 24th in the nation by making 55.2% of their shots inside the arc. And while Auburn ranks 18th in the nation by pulling down 35.3% of their missed shots, they are even more aggressive on the boards when playing on the road where they rebound 37.3% of their misses, ranking 8th best in the nation. The Mountaineers are vulnerable in this regard as they allow their opponents to pull down 28.2% of their missed shots, ranking 168th in the nation. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. And while they have still covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. West Virginia is better than their record — they endured a six-game losing streak in the brutal Big 12 grind which included an overtime loss at Kansas State, a five-point loss at home to Baylor, and a one-point loss at Oklahoma. They played their best defensive game in their last eight contests by holding the Red Raiders to just 38.9% shooting on Wednesday. But the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset victory by 15 or more points. West Virginia gets this game at home in Morgantown — but while they rank 21st in the nation according to one of the advanced analytical systems I track, their ranking when using those metrics when evaluating home court advantages drops to 44th in the nation. The Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 home games with the Total set in the 140s.
FINAL TAKE: West Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Auburn has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games played in January. 25* CBB Big 12/SEC Challenge Game of the Year with the Auburn Tigers (601) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (602). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-23 |
Buffalo v. Kent State -10 |
Top |
68-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Kent State Golden Flashes (888) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (887). THE SITUATION: Kent State (16-4) had their ten-game winning streak snapped with an 86-76 loss at Northern Illinois as a 13-point favorite on Tuesday. Buffalo (9-10) has won two of their last three games after their 91-65 upset victory at Ball State as a 6-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN FLASHES MINUS THE POINTS: Kent State allowed the Huskies to make 51.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them this season. The Golden Flashes are a very good team that only lost by five points at Houston earlier this season. They rank 24th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. They return home where they are 9-0 with a +21.6 net point differential. They hold their guests to just 38.3% shooting which translates into just 63.4 Points-Per-Game. They are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games at home — and they are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. Kent State should blow out the Bulls due to their ability to force turnovers. The Golden Flashes rank 14th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.7% of their opponent’s possessions — and Buffalo turns the ball over in 19.8% of their possessions, ranking 261st in the nation. The Bulls nailed 59.7% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. They also held the Cardinals to just 40.0% shooting — but here come the Regression Gods as Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a game where they nailed at least 57% of their shots while holding their opponent to no better than 43% shooting. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. The Bulls stay on the road where they are only 2-8 while allowing their home hosts to make 46.5% of their shots which results in 81.7 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Buffalo only makes 62.8% of their free throws in Mid-American Conference play — the lowest mark in the conference. As a double-digit dog, the Bulls need every point they can muster — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games on the road getting 9.5 to 12 points. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Kent State Golden Flashes (888) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (887). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-25-23 |
Army +3.5 v. American |
Top |
61-63 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (1521) plus the points versus the American Eagles (1522). THE SITUATION: Army (11-10) has lost two games in a row after their 77-71 upset loss to Navy as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. American (12-7) has lost four games in a row after their 62-61 loss at Colgate as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Army is one of the best shooting teams in the nation — they rank 11th in the country with an effective field goal percentage of 55.9%. They actually are even more effective at shooting the basketball when they are playing on the road in hostile environments. When playing in another opponent’s gyms, the Black Knights rank 2nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 58.9%. They rank 39.3% of their 3-pointers in true road games, ranking 18th in the nation, and they are making 58.9% of their shots inside the arc in their eighth true road games, ranking 5th in the nation. American does not play great defense on their home court — they rank 239th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 50.4% when playing at home and both of their opponent 3-point and 2-point field goal percentage ranks 209th or worse in the nation. Army has a 5-3 record when playing in a hostile environment on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straights on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road with the total set in the 130s. Army also thrives in keeping their opponents off the offensive glass — they rank 27th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding just 24.2% of their missed shots. The Black Knights have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 47 games in January. They are also 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 7 games as an underdog, Army has covered the point spread all 7 times. American has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a loss by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after a loss by three points or less against a Patriot League rival. Additionally, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after a loss on the road by three points or less. Furthermore, American has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing a game where they covered the point spread as the underdog. They return home where they are 5-2 this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 130s. The Eagles have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: American will be looking to avenge a 72-60 loss at Army on November 11th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Patriot League Underdog of the Month with the Army Black Knights (1521) plus the points versus the American Eagles (1522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-20-23 |
VCU v. Richmond -1 |
|
74-62 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Richmond Spiders (890) minus the point(s) versus the VCU Rams (889). THE SITUATION: Richmond (11-8) has won four of their last five games after their 64-57 win against Rhode Island as an 8-point favorite on Tuesday. VCU (14-5) has won four in a row and nine of their last ten contests with their 83-55 win against UMass as a 10-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPIDERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Richmond held the Rams to just 38.9% shooting which was actually the worst defensive effort in their last three games. The Spiders have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. And while Richmond has only covered the point spread twice in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Spiders now have a 9-1 record on their home court with a +14.0 net point differential. They are making 47.0% of their shots on their home court — and they rank 30th in the nation by nailing 58.0% of their shots inside the arc at home. They are also holding their opponents to 37.6% shooting at home which is resulting in their guests' 58.8 Points-Per-Game. They rank 32nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. VCU played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Minutemen to 29.2% shooting this week. But the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a double-digit win over a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by 20 or more points versus an Atlantic 10 rival. But now they go back on the road where they are just 3-4 this season while making only 42.2% of their shots. VCU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage at home of 60% or higher. The Rams lead the Atlantic 10 by nailing 47.5% of their shots from behind the arc — but that mark plummets to a 33.9% clip when they are playing away from home in all their games this season. Now they face a Spiders defense that limits their guests to 27.5% shooting from 3-point range when playing at home, ranking 42nd in the nation. And while VCU leads the conference by forcing turnovers in 25.8% of their opponent’s possessions, Richmond only turns the ball in 16.0% of their possessions at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams face a tough matchup against Chris Mooney’s team that protects the basketball while playing at a grindingly slow place — and who plays tough half-court defense on their home court. VCU’s Plan A is to hit their 3s which is more of a challenge when playing on the road. Their Plan B is to force turnovers which the Spiders are good at defending against. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog of up to three points. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Richmond Spiders (890) minus the point(s) versus the VCU Rams (889). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-19-23 |
Cal-Riverside +4.5 v. UC-Davis |
|
74-72 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UC-Riverside Highlanders (795) plus the points versus the Cal-Davis Aggies (796). THE SITUATION: UC-Riverside (13-6) has won four games in a row after their 83-78 win in overtime against Cal Poly-SLO as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. Cal-Davis (11-70 has won four games in a row as well with their 78-70 win at Cal-San Diego as a 3-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HIGHLANDERS PLUS THE POINTS: UC-Riverside allowed the Mustangs to make 50.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. But the Highlanders have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a point spread victory. UC-Riverside goes back on the road where they have an 8-4 record this season. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Highlanders match up well with the Aggies. They lead the Big West Conference by nailing 40.1% of their 3-pointers — and this shooting proficiency helps them rank 3rd in the conference with an effective field goal percentage of 52.0%. Cal-Davis is last in the conference by allowing their opponents to make 40.2% of their 3-pointers — and they are also last in the Big West with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.6% against conference opponents. And while the Aggies lead the Big West by pulling down 37.3% of their missed shots, UC-Riverside leads the conference by holding their opponents to rebounding just 20.7% of their missed shots. Cal-Davis made 50.8% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. But the Aggies are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win against a conference rival in their last contest. Furthermore, Cal-Davis has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after winning two or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after winning four games in a row. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they are 1-5-3 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and the Highlanders have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 10* CBB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the UC-Riverside Highlanders (795) plus the points versus the Cal-Davis Aggies (796). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-16-23 |
CS Bakersfield v. CS-Fullerton -9 |
|
46-76 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cal State-Fullerton Titans (908) minus the points versus the Cal State-Bakersfield Roadrunners (907). THE SITUATION: CS-Fullerton (9-9) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 83-79 loss at Cal-Davis as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. CS-Bakersfield (6-11) ended their two-game losing streak in a 56-52 upset win against Cal-San Diego as a 2-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS: CS-Fullerton allowed the Aggies to make 45.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 games. The Titans have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing their second game in three days. They return home where they have a 7-1 record with a +13.2 net point differential. CS-Fullerton should play their defense much better tonight as they limit their guests to 39.0% shooting which is resulting in only 60.9 Points-Per-Game. The Titans have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. This is the first meeting between these two teams — and it is a good matchup for CS-Fullerton. The Titans lead the Big West Conference with a free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 47.1% — and the Roadrunners are 10th in the conference with an opponent free throw rate in Big West play. CS-Fullerton will get to the charity stripe a lot tonight — and they are nailing 76.3% of their free throws in conference play. The Titans also pull down 32.0% of their missed shots in conference play, ranking 4th in the Big West. CS-Bakersfield allows conference opponents to rebound 30.2% of their missed shots, ranking 7th in the Big West. CS-Fullerton is also nailing 37.3% of their 3-pointers in conference play, ranking 3rd in the Big West right now. On their home court, the Titans are making 39.0% of their 3-pointers. CS-Bakersfield made 42.6% of their shots on Saturday to end their losing streak — and that was actually the best shooting effort from them in their last seven games. But the Roadrunners have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread victory. CS-Bakersfield has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, the Roadrunners have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. CS-Bakersfield ranks 345th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — they had scored just 48 points in each of their two previous games before their upset victory on Saturday. But the Roadrunners have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after scoring 65 or more points in their last contest. They go back on the road where they are just 2-7 this season with a -9.4 net PPG differential. They only make 38.3% of their shots on the road which is translating into just 55.4 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Titans have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games with the Total set at 129.5 or lower. 10* CBB Monday Late Show Bailout with the Cal State-Fullerton Titans (908) minus the points versus the Cal State-Bakersfield Roadrunners (907). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-11-23 |
TCU +6.5 v. Texas |
Top |
75-79 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (747) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (748). THE SITUATION: TCU (13-2) had their 11-game winning streak snapped in a 69-67 upset loss to Iowa State as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. Texas (13-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 56-46 win at Oklahoma State as a 3-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS PLUS THE POINTS: TCU allowed the Cyclones to nail 52.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. They should rebound tonight as they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a loss to a Big 12 opponent. They are also 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread loss. Head coach Jamie Dixon has one of the most experienced teams in the nation — they rank 3rd in Division I with 77% of their minutes back from the club that took Arizona to overtime in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The Horned Frogs play with a style that travels well to hostile environments. They rank 19th in the nation by pulling down 35.5% of their missed shots. They rank 16th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.2% of their opponent’s possessions. Not only does this team create extra-scoring possessions, but they also play outstanding defense. TCU ranks 255th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are led by a superb point guard Mike Miles, Jr. who leads the team in scoring, assists, and steals. The Horned Frogs have won all five of their games on the road this season while making 47.0% of their shots. — and they are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games on the road. They are also 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a point spread win including their last four contests after covering the point spread. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games when playing their second game in five days. Interim head coach Rodney Terry is doing a fine job with this team — but the firing of head coach Chris Beard certainly hurts this squad. The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 7 games since Beard was suspended (and later fired when police pressed battery charges against him for what he did to his wife). If there is a flaw to this team, it is that they foul too much — they rank 246th in the nation in opponent free throw rate. Additionally, while Texas ranks 31st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, that mark plummets to 112th in the country in defensive efficiency when playing at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. TCU is 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the TCU Horned Frogs (747) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (748). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-10-23 |
Illinois v. Nebraska +3.5 |
|
76-50 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Nebraska Cornhuskers (654) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (653). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (9-7) has won three of their last four games after an 81-79 victory at Minnesota as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Illinois (10-5) has won two of their last three games after their 79-69 victory against Wisconsin as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CORNHUSKERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Fighting Illini won their first game against a conference opponent over the weekend as they took full advantage of a Badgers team playing without their best player and leading scorer Tyler Wahl. Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Now they go back on the road where they have just a 2-4 record away from home while getting outscored by -5.5 net Points-Per-Game. They only make 43.6% of their shots on the road. The Illini have talent — but they are way too loose with the basketball. They rank 292nd in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.7% of their possessions with four of their rotation players each turning the ball over at least 20% or more of their possessions. It gets worse on the road where they turn the ball over in 22.3% of their possessions, ranking 320th in the nation. Illinois lives and dies with the 3-pointer as well — they rank 25th in the nation by attempting 45.5% of their shots from behind the arc. But the Fighting Illini only make 33.3% of their 3-pointers when playing away from home, ranking 131st in the country. Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Illini have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 130s. Nebraska returns home after playing their last two games on the road where they are 6-1 this season. They have beaten Iowa at home — and their lone loss at home was in overtime against a loaded Purdue squad that ranks 6th in the nation using the metrics at KenPom. The Cornhuskers outscore their guests by +13.6 net PPG while nailing 47.2% of their shots. They hold these visitors to 38.4% shooting which translates into only 61.7 PPG — and they rank 57th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. Nebraska has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 6 road games when favored by 3.5 to 6 points. 20* CBB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Nebraska Cornhuskers (654) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (653). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-23 |
Tennessee State v. SIU-Edwardsville -6.5 |
Top |
72-81 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the SIU-Edwardsville Cougars (772) minus the points versus the Tennessee State Tigers (771). THE SITUATION: SIU-Edwardsville (10-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 82-73 upset loss to SE Missouri State as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Tennessee State (9-6) has won three of their last four games after a 94-69 victory against Arkansas-Little Rock as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: SIU-Edwardsville allowed SE Missouri State to nail 48.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. They return home where they hold their opponents to just 39.2% shooting which results in only 61.3 Points-Per-Game for their guests. SIU-Edwardsville has a 5-1 record at home with a net point differential of +15.9 net PPG. They have covered 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40% on the road. The Cougars pulled down 32.7% of their missed shots, ranking 67th in the nation. They now face a Tigers team that allows their opponents to rebound 30.4% of their misses, ranking 244th. Tennessee State made 58.9% of their shots in what was a season-high shooting effort for them this season. They nailed 14 of their 25 shots from behind the arc. But the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a game where they hit 13 or more of their 3-pointers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after making 50% or more of their 3-pointers. Additionally, Tennessee State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 90 or more points in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning three of their last four games. They go back on the road for the first time since December 3rd after playing seven straight games at home. They are just 1-4 on the road while getting outscored by -10.0 PPG. They only make 39.2% of their shots on the road and just 28.4% of their 3-pointers which translates into just 62.8 PPG. They are 10-26-1 ATS in their last 37 games on the road — and they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Tennessee State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games after playing three or more straight games at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Cougars are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN News Game of the Month with the SIU-Edwardsville Cougars (772) minus the points versus the Tennessee State Tigers (771). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-14-22 |
South Carolina v. UAB -16 |
Top |
70-84 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (638) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (637). THE SITUATION: UAB (7-2) had their six-game winning streak snapped with an 81-70 loss at West Virginia as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. South Carolina (5-4) has won three of their last four contests after their 68-57 win against Presbyterian as a 9-point favorite on December 11th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: UAB lost for just the second time this season after losing to Toledo on a neutral court. They have bounced back to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while the 50.0% shooting percentage of the Mountaineers on Saturday was the Blazers’ worst defensive effort of the season, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. This is a loaded team that returns six of the top nine players from last year’s group that won 27 games and lost to Houston in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. UAB has one of the best backcourts in the nation with high-scoring returning guard Jelly Walker now joined by LSU transfer Eric Gaines. They return home where they are 5-0 with an average winning margin of +31.2 points. They are nailing 50.9% of their shots at home with a 37.6% clip from behind the arc — and that is translating into 93.8 PPG. They hold their opponents to just 36.6% shooting on their home court which results in 62.6 PPG. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on their home court. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 140s. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight home games after a loss on the road. Covering 16 or so points is a difficult challenge — but UAB plays a style that produces blowouts against inferior competition. They play at a blistering pace which is the 4th quickest in the nation. They force turnovers in 20.5% of their opponent’s possessions (#91st in the nation) with four players in the top-80 percentile in steal rate — and the Gamecocks turn the ball over in 20.2% of their possessions, ranking 239th in the nation. They also crash the glass by pulling down 36.2% of their missed shots — and South Carolina allows their opponents to rebound 28.7% of their missed shots, ranking 183rd in the nation. The Gamecocks are rebuilding after firing head coach Frank Martin in the offseason after an 18-13 record and what they considered a disappointing 8th-place finish in the SEC. Only 15.4% of the minutes return from that team — and while two starters are back, they combined for under 25 minutes per game between them. The new head coach is Lamont Paris who built a strong program at Chattanooga. He brought in a handful of transfer players and recruited five-star G.G. Jackson to the school — and while Jackson oozes with potential, he is still only 17 years old. South Carolina upset Clemson early in the season — but they have lost to Colorado State, Davidson, Furman, and George Washington. They beat an overmatched Presbyterian team while shooting a season-high 49.1% from the field — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. But they allowed the Blue Hose to make 52.2% of their shots which was the fourth opponent of theirs this season that made at least 50% of their shots against them. The Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams who are winning 60% or more of their games on their home court. In their six road games, South Carolina has lost four times with an average losing margin of -11.0 PPG. They are only making 39.4% of their shots which is generating just 61.7 PPG. They allow their opponents to nail 49.8% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: The real question for this game seems to be what UAB’s winning margin will be. The Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road as a double-digit underdog — and the Blazers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games when laying 10 or more points. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the UAB Blazers (638) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (637). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-22 |
San Diego State +2 v. Arizona |
|
70-87 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Diego State (659) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (660) in the Maui Invitational. THE SITUATION: San Diego State (4-0) has won their first four games of the season after their 88-77 victory against Ohio State as a 4.5-point favorite in their opening game in the Maui Invitational. Arizona (4-0) beat Cincinnati yesterday in this tournament by a 101-93 score as a 9.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: San Diego State has been an elite defensive team under head coach Brian Dutcher — but scoring has been an issue. Their efficiency on offense improved in the second half of the season last year which helped them earn an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament. The Aztecs returned most of the core of that team led by their leading scorer from last year Matt Turner. San Diego State brought in several transfer players who have already provided the team with additional scoring boosts. Darrion Trammel, a transfer from Seattle, has scored 20 or more points twice this year including 21 points against BYU. Jaedon LeDee, a transfer from TCU, scored 23 points against BYU. After making at least 51.0% of their shots in two of their first three games, the Aztecs made 50.8% of their shots against the Buckeyes last night. They are scoring 81.0 Points-Per-Game on 48.5% shooting -- and they rank 26th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Led by the reigning Mountain West Conference Defensive Player of the Year in big man Nathan Mensah, they remain elite on defense as well by ranking 9th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after making at least 50% of their shots in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 85 points in their last contest. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Aztecs have played a challenging non-conference schedule which has included a 7-point win against BYU and a 12-point win at Stanford in their last game before this tournament. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. Arizona has made at least 54.5% of their shots in all four of their games after nailing 80% of their shots in the second half last night against the Bearcats en route to a 62.3% shooting clip for the game. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing 90 or more points in their last game. Second-year head coach Tommy Lloyd has a loaded roster again this season with six players averaging double-digits. But they have demonstrated some weaknesses. They are turning the ball over in 21.8% of their possessions, ranking 284th in the nation. The Aztecs force turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 79th in the nation. Arizona is also allowing their opponents to make 39.3% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 312th in the nation. San Diego State is not crashing the glass on offense as they have in the past — but they are nailing 40.5% of their shots from 3-point land, ranking 23rd in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: This will be a clash of styles with Arizona leading the nation in Adjusted Tempo while scoring 104.3 PPG. But San Diego State ranks 331st in the nation in opponent possession length. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CBB San Diego State-Arizona ESPN Special with the San Diego State (659) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (660). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-04-22 |
North Carolina +4.5 v. Kansas |
Top |
69-72 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (721) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (722) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (29-9) won their 11th game in their last 12 with their 81-77 upset victory against Duke as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas (33-6) won their tenth straight game with their 81-65 victory against Villanova as a 4-point favorite in their Final Four game on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS PLUS THE POINTS: David McCormack may have played the best game of his career on Saturday by making 10 of 12 shots in the field en route to his 25 points. He dominated the Wildcats inside and took full advantage of their lack of size. But McCormack has been enigmatic his entire career — he has a high ceiling but his biggest challenge has been maintaining consistency from game to game. McCormack is emblematic of this entire Kansas team: when they are playing at their best, they look unbeatable. But too often this Jayhawks team gets in their own way as they seem to lose focus. After trailing Miami (FL) 35-29 at half-time in their Elite Eight, Kansas has probably their best 60 consecutive minutes all season. But, frankly, I will pay to see if they can nail 13 of 24 (54%) of their 3-pointers as they did against Villanova. The Jayhawks had only made 33% of their shots from behind the arc in their 11 previous games on a neutral court before Saturday. Kansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after nailing at least 13 shots from 3-point land in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after making at least 50% of their shots from behind the arc in their last game. This Jayhawks team was flat in the first half against the Hurricanes last weekend. They struggled against an injured Creighton team playing without their best two players. They let Providence back in their Round of 32 game despite the Friars not being able to hit the side of a barn for most of that contest.
Before the season started, I vowed to try to pay attention to teams who made significant advances midseason with the benefit of coaching kicking in after the chaos of the COVID-tainted campaign the year before. It took North Carolina’s victory against a very good UCLA team for me to finally appreciate what rookie head coach Hubert Davis has done with this Tar Heels team. I thought that Bruins' team that went to the Final Four last year was really good — but North Carolina rallied from a 56-51 deficit with under nine minutes to go to cleanly win by a 73-66 score. A 22-10 run to close out that game was impressive. A mistake the analytics community in all-sports can make is not knowing when to pivot away from season-long stats to privilege recent data — ask those bettors who did not figure out the Cincinnati Bengals. One of the power rankings systems I use considered the Tar Heels the best team in the nation going into Saturday in terms of Net Adjusted Efficiency over their last ten games. Those numbers also ranked North Carolina with the fifth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency since February 17th (before the Duke game). What stands out for me with this team is their balance. Four different players have led them in scoring in each of their four NCAA Tournament games. Brady Manek scored 28 points in their opening win against Marquette. R.J. Davis poured in 30 points in their dethroning of the reigning champion Baylor. Caleb Love scored 30 points in the win against UCLA. And then Armando Bacot scored 22 points and added 20 rebounds in their 20-point win against St. Peter’s. It was then Love on Saturday who took charge for this team by scoring 28 points against the Blue Devils. What these Tar Heels can do that too many of the teams under Roy Williams could not is make their 3s. North Carolina has seen at least one player nail at least four 3s in each of their games in the Big Dance. And while them taking 38.2% of their shots from behind the mark is just above the 37.7% national average, there were many years under Williams where they were not taking more than 30% of their shots from 3-point range. The Tar Heels are rolling — and I expect the momentum to continue after the continued confidence they have after beating a Duke team loaded with future NBA talent. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread win.
FINAL TAKE: I will not be surprised if Kansas does not play as well as they did on Saturday. But even if they play at the same high level as they did in the second half against Miami (FL) and Villanova, I still expect North Carolina to be very competitive. The Jayhawks will not be able to dominate the offensive boards like they did the Wildcats by pulling down 37.0% of their missed shots. North Carolina ranks second in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding only 21.6% of their missed shots. The Tar Heels are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as an underdog. I think North Carolina wins straight-up — but I do not recommend “sprinkling” (such a lame phrasing for throwing one’s money away) any money on them with the money-line. Why forego the insurance that is the 4 or so points they are getting in this game? If you want to make more money, then parlay the Tar Heels (with the points) with my totals play for this game. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year on the North Carolina Tar Heels (721) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-02-22 |
North Carolina +4.5 v. Duke |
Top |
81-77 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (703) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (704) in the Final Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (28-9) has won 10 of their last 11 games after a 69-49 victory against Saint Peter’s as an 8.5-point favorite in the Elite Eight last Sunday. Duke (32-6) has won six of their last seven games with their 78-69 win against Arkansas last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS PLUS THE POINTS: Before the season started, I vowed to try to pay attention to teams who made significant advances midseason with the benefit of coaching kicking in after the chaos of the COVID-tainted campaign the year before. It took North Carolina’s victory against a very good UCLA team for me to finally appreciate what rookie head coach Hubert Davis has done with this Tar Heels team. I thought that Bruins' team that went to the Final Four last year was really good — but North Carolina rallied from a 56-51 deficit with under nine minutes to go to cleanly win by a 73-66 score. A 22-10 run to close out that game was impressive. A mistake the analytics community in all-sports can make is not knowing when to pivot away from season-long stats to privilege recent data — ask those bettors who did not figure out the Cincinnati Bengals. One of the power rankings systems I use considers the Tar Heels the best team in the nation in terms of Net Adjusted Efficiency over their last ten games. Those numbers also rank North Carolina with the fifth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency since February 17th. What stands out for me with this team is their balance. Four different players have led them in scoring in each of their four NCAA Tournament games. Brady Manek scored 28 points in their opening win against Marquette. R.J. Davis poured in 30 points in their dethroning of the reigning champion Baylor. Caleb Love scored 30 points in the win against UCLA. And then Armando Bacot scored 22 points and added 20 rebounds in their 20-point win against the Peacocks. What these Tar Heels can do that too many of the teams under Roy Williams could not is make their 3s. North Carolina has seen at least one player nail at least four 3s in each of their games in the Big Dance. And while them taking 38.2% of their shots from behind the mark is just above the 37.7% national average, there were many years under Williams where they were not taking more than 30% of their shots from 3-point range. The Tar Heels are rolling — and I expect the momentum to continue. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning four of their last five games. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. Additionally, North Carolina is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog. We have backed Duke in their last two wins (and covers) against Arkansas and Texas Tech — but I hate this spot for them. I suspect this the game that the enormous pressure this young team has in carrying the legacy of head coach Mike Krzyzewski in his final games before retirement. I heard some pundits comment that the pressure was higher in their final home game at Cameroon Indoor against this Tar Heels team with all the alumni in the house. While I appreciate there was pressure then, to suggest that a regular-season game on the second Saturday in March presented more pressure than a Final Four is ludicrous. And, by the way, this team did not handle that pressure very well in that 94-81 loss. The team trends point to this being a letdown spot for Duke. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least four in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. They have scored at least 78 points in each of their games in the Big Dance — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 75 points in four straight games. The Blue Devils have some issues. They only rank 45th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they fall slightly to 51st in the nation in that metric in their last ten games. It is their half-court defense that is the biggest weakness as their opponents have a 47.0% effective field goal percentage against them, ranking just 48th in the nation. Duke has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament. These teams share more than having campuses within eight miles of each other. The profile of both teams is dynamic offenses with athletes that crash the glass on both ends of the court — and while neither team forces turnovers, they both rank in the top seven in the nation in opponent foul rate. But it is North Carolina that ranks second in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding only 21.2% of their missed shots.
FINAL TAKE: Duke has the revenge angle here from that 13-point loss as an 11-point favorite — but the historical numbers in the NCAA Tournament regarding teams looking to avenge a same-season loss favor the team that won the previous game. Admittedly, that is from a limited sample size over many years — but it suggests that the market might be overvaluing Duke as if the revenge angle means they “really, really” want to win as opposed to just “really” wanting to beat UNC. Furthermore, the Blue Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss where they were favored by at least seven points — including failing to cover the spread in three of those four opportunities this season. Duke has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home under Coach K. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Year with the North Carolina Tar Heels (703) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-02-22 |
Villanova +4.5 v. Kansas |
|
65-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 41 m |
Show
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At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (701) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (702) in the Final Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Villanova (30-7) is on a nine-game winning streak after their 50-44 upset victory against Houston as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas (32-6) has won nine games in a row after beating Miami (FL) by a 76-50 score as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats will have to play this game without their leader in minutes, Justin Moore. The junior is second on the team with a 14.8 Points-Per-Game scoring average while adding 4.8 Rebounds-Per-Game and 2.9 Assists-Per-Game. All four of Villanova’s other starters are very good — and the team does not miss a beat when Caleb Daniels comes off the bench. Depth is an issue for head coach Jay Wright — but that has been a challenge all year despite dealing with injuries and COVID issues all season. Wright uses a smaller bench by choice, John Wooden-style. Look for the team to rally together for this game and play quite well. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory. They have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. And while Villanova has held their last two opponents to 55 or fewer points, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than 55 points in two straight games. The Wildcats rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency -- and that number improves to ranking 9th in the nation when evaluating Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on a neutral court. Over their last ten games, the Jayhawks rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Kansas thrives when getting out in transition to score baskets — but this will be easier said than done against Villanova. The Wildcats do not turn the ball over to allow for these opportunities — they rank 29th in the nation by turning the ball over just 15.5% of the time. Head coach Jay Wright’s team is also masterful in switches — so they are comfortable defending in transition. The Jayhawks had been listless of many of their NCAA Tournament games against probably the easiest draw of all the four teams in New Orleans this weekend. They do come off the best 20 minutes of basketball they played in the Big Dance when they steamrolled the Hurricanes — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a win by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last eight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests.
FINAL TAKE: Head coach Bill Self’s Jayhawks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament — and the Wildcats have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 27 games in the Big Dance. In Jay Wright, I Trust to at least keep this one a coin flip at the end. 10* CBB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Villanova Wildcats (701) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-31-22 |
Xavier v. Texas A&M -4 |
Top |
73-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 18 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (652) minus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (651) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (27-12) has won 11 of their last 12 games with a 72-56 victory against Washington State as a 1.5-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament on Tuesday. Xavier (22-13) has won five of their last six games after their 84-77 upset victory against St. Bonaventure as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Buzz Williams complained loudly about the tragic injustice it was that his Texas A&M team did not get an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament after beating Florida, Auburn, and Arkansas in the SEC Tournament before losing to Tennessee in the championship game. It’s shame this small private school scarping for money can’t catch a break — especially after losing nine of ten games during a midseason slump. No one is feeling sorry for Texas A&M — and often teams that feel robbed from an at-large bid then fall flat in the NIT. Credit goes to Williams for keeping his team focused as they have beaten all four of their opponents in this tournament by at least 12 points. Now with one game away from taking the title, look for another strong effort from the Aggies. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. The calling card for this team is defense — they rank 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while rising 10th in the country in that metric over their last ten games. After limiting the Cougars to just 34.5% shooting on Tuesday, they have held their last five opponents to no better than 39.3% field goal percentage. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing at last three straight opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field. Xavier made 53.1% of their shots in their victory against the Bonnies which was the best shooting mark in their last five games. But the Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Xavier has faced turmoil all season. After an 11-2 start to their Big East campaign, they lost 11 of their next 17 conference games which cost them a spot in the Big Dance. After beating Cleveland State in the first round of the NIT, the program let head coach Travis Steele. Assistant coach Jonas Hayes took over on an interim basis with the university re-hiring Sean Miller after his tumultuous run at Arizona. The team also lost their fifth-year senior point guard Paul Scruggs to a season-ending injury in their second NIT game against Florida. This leaves the Musketeers short-handed with just a six-man rotation. Scruggs was the team’s second-leading scorer averaging 11.7 Points-Per-Game — and he led the team by dishing out 4.1 Assists-Per-Game. He is critical in protecting the basketball against pressure as well — in that game against the Gators where he got injured, Xavier turned the ball over 18 times representing 24.0% of their possessions. Now they face a Texas A&M team that is eighth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.9% of their opponent’s possessions. The Aggies’ depth is also a strength as they rank 23rd in the nation in bench minutes with 11 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game. Williams will be able to throw waves of players and pressure at a Xavier team missing their floor general.
FINAL TAKE: The Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral court. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year is on the Texas A&M Aggies (652) minus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (651). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-27-22 |
St. Peter's v. North Carolina -8 |
|
49-69 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
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At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (644) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (643) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (27-9) has won nine of their last ten games with their 73-66 upset win against UCLA as a 2.5-point underdog on Friday. Saint Peter’s (22-11) won their tenth game in a row with their 67-64 upset win against Purdue as a 13-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: North Carolina was considered a top-15 team in the nation in the preseason — and after a sluggish start to the season, they are peaking at the right time now in March. The Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after winning four or five of their last six games. North Carolina has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. Saint Peter’s has pulled off three straight upsets in this tournament despite losing all three games using the expected baskets from the analytics department at Shot Quality. The Peacocks were able to handle the Boilermakers' size — but that may speak more about Purdue than it does them with hindsight. Saint Peter’s is going to have their hands full dealing with Armando Bacot and Brady Manek. Saint Peter’s has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing their second game in three days. The Peacocks' fortunes have extended to the free-throw line where they ranked 234th in the nation by making 70% of their shots at the charity stripe. In the NCAA Tournament, the Peacocks have made 60 of their 73 shots from the free-throw line. They got to the line 21 times against Purdue where they made 19 of their freebies (90.4%) — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after making at least 88% of their free throws in their last game. Getting to the free-throw line is Saint Peter’s game as they rank 17th in the nation in free throw rate — but the Tar Heels do not foul as they rank 8th in the nation in putting their opponents on the free-throw line. This Peacocks team remains below average on offense with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 216th in the nation. They only make 46% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 314th in the nation. They also turn the ball over in 20.4% of their possessions, ranking 298th. Eventually, these characteristics catch up to big underdogs. And while they rank 71st in the nation by pulling down 31.4% of their misses, North Carolina is the second-best defensive rebounding team in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding 21.4% of their misses.
FINAL TAKE: Saint Peter’s will continue to play good defense — but they will need an outlier effort on offense from behind the 3-point line to stay competitive with this surging Tar Heels team. 20* CBB Saint Peter’s-North Carolina CBS-TV Special with the North Carolina Tar Heels (644) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (643). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-27-22 |
Miami-FL v. Kansas -6 |
Top |
50-76 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (646) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (645) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Kansas (31-6) has won eight games in a row after their 66-61 victory against Providence as a 7-point favorite on Friday. Miami (FL) (26-10) has won six of their last seven contests with their 70-56 win against Iowa State as a 3.5-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the United Center in Chicago.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas can be a frustrating team to watch — but they have a significant talent edge in this game which should shine through in the end. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after winning at least two in a row without covering the point spread as a favorite. Kansas is playing well on the defensive end of the court. They have not allowed a tournament opponent to make more than 35.6% of their shots after holding the Friars to just 33.8% shooting — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing their last two opponents to shoot better than 37% of their shots. The Jayhawks are a bit better than their metrics suggest now that Remy Martin is healthy again and fully in the mix. He has scored double-digits in five straight games while leading the team with 58 points so far in this tournament. Kansas is efficient on offense as they usually take good shots — they rank fifth in the nation with a 1.27 Points-Per-Possession in Shot Quality. The Jayhawks' big edge in this game is their offensive rebounding. Kansas ranks 35th in the nation by pulling down 33.3% of their missed shots — and the Hurricanes allow their opponents to rebound 30.5% of their missed shots, ranking 271st in the nation. Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a victory by double-digits. They have played three straight Unders — but the Hurricanes have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after playing at least two straight Unders. And while Miami has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. The Hurricanes are a potent offensive team that does not turn the ball over while shooting 55.0% inside the arc. They force turnovers on defense which facilitates their transition offense. But this is not a good defensive team in the half-court. Miami ranks 114th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 283rd in the country with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 52.5%. They allow their opponents to make 52.9% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 299th in the country — and this will likely be the source of their demise against the Jayhawks.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. 25* CBB Elite Eight Game of the Year with the Kansas Jayhawks (646) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (645). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-26-22 |
Arkansas v. Duke -3.5 |
|
69-78 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
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At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (642) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (641) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (31-6) won their fifth game in their last six with their 78-73 win against Texas Tech in a pick ‘em on Thursday. Arkansas (28-8) has won four of their last five games with their 74-68 upset win against Gonzaga as a 9.5-point underdog on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Chase Center in San Francisco.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: Duke made a statement by scoring at a 1.16 Points-Per-Possession rate against a Red Raiders team that was ranked number one in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Blue Devils amped up their intensity in the second half by nailing 71% of their shots while not missing a shot from the field in the final seven or so minutes of the game. Peak Duke has as high a ceiling as any team in the country (they did beat Gonzaga earlier in the year). Head coach Mike Krzyzewski demonstrated he still has a trick or two up his sleeve by having his team come out in the second half playing a zone defense. The rotation might have four or five first-round draft picks in the next NBA draft. After shooting 33.1% from behind the arc in the regular season, Paolo Banchero, the potential top-pick in the summer NBA draft has nailed 7 of his 13 (53.8%) of his 3-pointers in this tournament. A.J. Griffin scored 11 points while not showing any after-effects from the ankle injury that kept him out of the game late against Michigan State last weekend. But what has been the difference for this team in this tournament has been the play of point guard Jeremy Roach who Coach K re-inserted into the starting lineup after their loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. Roach scored 15 points on 7 of 11 shooting and added five assists. He is averaging 13.4 PPG in his last seven games while making 9 of his 24 shots from behind the arc. Arkansas may be poised for an emotional letdown after sleighing the Goliath that is Gonzaga as a 9.5-point underdog. Critical in their win was forcing the Bulldogs into 15 turnovers while holding them to 37.5% shooting. Gonzaga missed 16 of their 21 shots from 3-point range. The Razorbacks were able to slow the Bulldogs down — and then they frustrated them in the half-court. Duke is more effective in the half-court offense. They are not likely to indulge Arkansas in turnovers. The Blue Devils rank 21st in the nation by turning the ball over 15.1% of the time. Against a more-effective turnover-forcing team in the Red Raiders, Duke only turned it over 10 times. Roach only has one game where he turned the ball over four or more times this season. Arkansas also wants to get to the free-throw line as they rank 26th in the nation in getting to the line — and 22.7% of their points come from the charity stripe. But the Blue Devils ran second in the nation in defensive free throw rate. Frankly, the stars were aligning for the Razorbacks on Thursday. Jaylin Williams nailed two shots from behind the arc after making only 17 shots from 3-point range in the regular season. Trey Wade made three of his four shots from distance after making only 12 in the regular season. Arkansas is not built to stay competitive by bombing from 3 — they rank 316th in the nation by making only 30.4% of their 3-pointers. J.D. Notae was given the green light to shoot from anywhere by head coach Eric Musselman — but he only made 9 of his 29 shots while missing 10 of his 12 shots from behind the arc. Notae has not made more than two shots from distance since February 19th.
FINAL TAKE: Duke should not Remy Martin-us (Kansas last night) if they are trying to stay just ahead of the point spread late in the game at the free-throw line. While Martin missed three free throws late in the game against Providence, the Blue Devils have only missed seven of their 47 shots at the charity stripe in this tournament for an 85% clip. Duke has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the Big Dance. 20* CBB Arkansas-Duke TBS-TV Special with the Duke Blue Devils (642) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (641). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-26-22 |
Houston v. Villanova +3 |
|
44-50 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (640) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (639) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Villanova (29-7) won their eighth straight game with their 63-55 victory against Michigan as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday. Houston (32-5) has won six straight after their 72-60 upset win against Arizona as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the AT&T Center in San Antonio.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a matchup of two similar teams in that they are both as well-coached as any group in college basketball with programs that feature the system over the talent. There are likely not any future NBA All-Stars on the court tonight — but the basketball will remain top quality. With Villanova getting a basket as an underdog, the value lies with Jay Wright’s team. He has overseen two National Championships with this program since 2016. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games in the NCAA Tournament including five of their last six Big Dance contests. They covered the point spread against the Wolverines despite shooting just 37.3% from the field which was their worst effort so far in this tournament. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing their third game in seven days. The Cougars will have difficulty forcing turnovers against this Wildcats small-ball lineup that ranks 28th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 15.5% of their possessions. Where Villanova has an edge is at the charity stripe — and not only will their free throws play a role to keep this game close during the game, but it will help in clutch time. The Wildcats are making 82.6% of their freebies which is not only the best mark in the nation but also on pace to break the NCAA record for the highest team free throw percentage in history. They have made 38 of their 44 (86.4%) free throw attempts. The flip-side to the Cougars’ aggressiveness in forcing turnovers is that they get called for fouls — they rank 291st in the nation in putting their opponents on the free-throw line. And for all the good things Houston does well, they give away points at the charity stripe as they only make 66.7% of their freebies, ranking 291st in the nation. In their first three games in this tournament, they have made only 37 of their 57 (64.9%) of their free-throw attempts. The Cougars did make 9 of their 20 (45%) shots from behind the arc against Arizona — after only making 6 of 22 (27.3%) of their 3-pointers versus Illinois. Houston is not a great 3-point shooting team as they only make 34.5% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 115th in the nation. This is another area where Villanova has an edge as they rank 54th in the nation by making 36.0% of their 3-pointers. The Cougars are third in the country in offensive rebounding — they will get second-chance opportunities against the Wildcats. But Houston ranks only a middling 165th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 27.8% of their missed shots — and Villanova is solid in this department by ranking 76th in the country by rebounding 31.1% of their misses. And while the Cougars’ defense is elite, their best work was done on their home court where they led the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Away from home, they fall to 29th in the nation in that defensive metric — and they are 13th in the nation when only evaluating their play on neutral courts.
FINAL TAKE: Villanova may have the best player and leader on the court tonight in Collin Gillespie at point guard. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set no higher than 129.5 — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Wildcats have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road after 15 games in the season against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Houston-Villanova TBS-TV Special with the Villanova Wildcats (640) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (639). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-26-22 |
Portland +4 v. Southern Utah |
Top |
66-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Portland Pilots (883) plus the points versus the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (884) in the Quarterfinals of the Basketball Classic. THE SITUATION: Portland (19-14) has won two of their last three games with their 94-73 win against New Orleans as a 9-point favorite last Saturday. Southern Utah (22-11) has won four of their last five games with their 82-69 upset win at UTEP as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PILOTS PLUS THE POINTS: Portland has the rest advantage with three extra days off than the Thunderbirds — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with five or six days of rest. This Pilots team has been steadily improving all season under first-year head coach Shantay Legans. The former Eastern Washington coach has one of the youngest rosters in the country — but with a handful of international transfers as well as three important cogs to his Eastern Washington team last year, this team has talent. They also play better away from home as they rank 129th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency margin as opposed to their 151st overall ranking in that metric. Portland has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. The Pilots have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Southern Utah nailed 58.2% of their shots against UTEP which was the best shooting effort in their last nine games. They also held the Miners to a 37.5% shooting clip which was the best defensive effort in their last seven contests. But the Thunderbirds have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win. And while they have won four of their last five contests, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after winning four of their last five games. Southern Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They have scored 83 points in their four-point upset win against Kent State in the opening game of this tournament — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. The Thunderbirds have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And while both those games finished Over the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 home games after playing two straight Overs. Southern Utah ranks 179th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they fall to a ranking of just 208th in the country in that metric when playing at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 60 home games when favored including seven of their eleven games at home laying points this season. The strength of this team is protecting their defensive glass as they limit their opponents to pulling down only 22.7% of their missed shots, ranking 16th in the nation. But the Pilots sacrifice offensive rebounding for getting back on defense as they only rebound 24.0% of their misses, ranking 299th in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: Southern Utah won the Big Sky Conference regular-season title last year — but, in hindsight, that accomplishment looks like a fortunate by-product of the instability from a season played during COVID. Portland is on the rise — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Basketball Classic Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Portland Pilots (883) plus the points versus the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (884). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-25-22 |
Iowa State +3.5 v. Miami-FL |
|
56-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 9:59 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (637) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (638) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Iowa State (22-12) advanced to the Sweet 16 with a 54-49 upset win against Wisconsin as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Miami (FL) (25-10) has won five of their last six games with their 79-61 upset win against Auburn as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the United Center in Chicago.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS THE POINTS: In this battle of the Hurricanes' potent scoring attack against the stout defense of Iowa State, I expect the defense will reign supreme. The Cyclones held the Badgers to just 29.8% shooting after holding LSU to 37.0% shooting in their opening-round upset. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. The Cyclones rank fifth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. After forcing 17 turnovers against a Badgers team that is second in the nation in offensive turnover rate, they now rank fourth in the country by forcing turnovers in 24.7% of their opponent’s possessions. They also rank eighth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 28.7% shooting from behind the arc. The weakness of this Iowa State team is their scoring — but they do have three players in Izaiah Brockington, Caleb Grill, and Aljaz Kunc all hit at least 35% of their shots from behind the arc. Miami ranks 121st in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 304th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 53.2% of their shots inside the arc. They also rank 255th in the nation with their opponents nailing 34.9% of their shots from distance. Breaking down those 3-point defensive numbers makes it look worse for the Hurricanes. Miami ranks 337th in the country in catch-and-shoot 3-point defense, 160th in open 3-point defense, and 289th in rim and 3-point defense. Miami did hold Auburn to 30.4% shooting on Sunday but that was the best defensive effort of their season. They also made 48.5% of their shots in what was the best shooting performance in their last three games.
FINAL TAKE: Miami is 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games when favored on a neutral court — and they have failed to cocker the point spread in 5 straight games in the NCAA Tournament when favored. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. The Cyclones have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. 10* CBB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Iowa State Cyclones (637) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (638). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-25-22 |
North Carolina v. UCLA -2 |
|
73-66 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 9:39 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (632) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (631) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UCLA (27-7) has won seven of their last eight games with their 72-56 win against Saint Mary’s as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. North Carolina (26-9) has won eight of their last nine games after their 93-86 upset win in overtime against Baylor as a 5-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINTS: The biggest question for UCLA regards the status of Jaime Jacquez who injured his ankle late in the game against the Gaels. He did take part in practice on Thursday and the reports are that he will take the court tonight. Even without Jacquez, the Bruins remain a veteran team with all the key pieces back from the group that reached the Final Four last season. This is a balanced team that ranks in the top-14 in the nation in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UCLA has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in March. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams outside the Pac-12. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored. North Carolina may be due for a letdown after pulling off the upset against the reigning National Champions. They made 49.1% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. They also held the Bears to 34.6% shooting was tied for the best defensive performance in their last 15 contests. But the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 85 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after playing a game where at least 80 combined points were scored. And while North Carolina held Marquette to just a 35.6% shooting percentage in the opening round of the Big Dance, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing their last two opponents to make more than 37% of their shots. The Tar heels have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: North Carolina is 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games played on a neutral court — and they have fooled to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games played on a neutral court when an underdog of three points or less. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament as an underdog. UCLA has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the NCAA Tournament. 10* CBB Friday Night Discounted Deal with the UCLA Bruins (632) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (631). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-25-22 |
Providence v. Kansas -6.5 |
Top |
61-66 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:29 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (636) minus the points versus the Providence Friars (635) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Kansas (30-6) has won seven straight games after their 79-72 victory against Creighton as a 12.5-point favorite on Saturday. Providence (30-6) has won six of their last eight games with their 79-51 win against Richmond as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the United Center in Chicago.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Providence ranks as the luckiest team in the nation according to the deeper metrics of Ken Pomeroy. They have an 11-2 record in games decided by five points or less. While I do think that winning close games is not purely an embodiment of chance, I passed on both of the Friars’ first two games in the NCAA Tournament. The analytics indicate that Providence was fortunate in both contests to win the game. The Spiders’ bubble was perhaps destined to explode after pulling off four straight upset victories. Richmond missed 13 of 21 free throws and 21 of their 22 shots from behind the arc in the 28-point loss to the Friars. But the Spiders did make 20 of 31 (64.5%) of their shots inside the arc which is a concern when now playing the Jayhawks. Playing Kansas is a significant step up in class after getting a favorable draw against South Dakota State and Richmond in the first two rounds of the Big Dance. Providence has been exposed this season in a number of their losses. Creighton scored 85 points in a 27-point victory against them in the Big East Tournament. Marquette scored 88 points in a 32-point win against them. Villanova scored 89 points against them. Virginia beat them by 18 points. The Friars ranked just seventh in the Big East in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This is not a great matchup for them either. Providence led the Big East in getting to the free-throw line — and they led the conference by making 37.6% of their 3-pointers. But the Jayhawks were second in the Big 12 in defensive free throw rate while leading the conference by holding their opponents to just 27.5% shooting from behind the arc. They are not likely to make 51.9% of their shots again tonight as they did against Richmond which was the best shooting mark in their last 15 games. While they ranked 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 54th in the nation in that offensive metric when playing away from home. Kansas only made 40.9% of their shots in their victory against the Bluejays which was the lowest shooting mark in their last five games. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning at least seven games in a row. This Jayhawks team continues to improve on the defensive end of the court. After holding Texas Southern to just 32.8% shooting, they held Creighton to a 35.6% field goal percentage. Kansas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing their last two opponents to make more than 37% of their shots. When playing on the road, the Jayhawks rank second in the nation in Adjusted Offense Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral court. Providence has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog. The Friars have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year with the Kansas Jayhawks (636) minus the points versus the Providence Friars (635). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-25-22 |
St. Peter's v. Purdue -12.5 |
|
67-64 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 7:09 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (634) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (633) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Purdue (29-7) has won five of their last six games with their 81-71 victory against Texas as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Saint Peter’s (21-11) has won nine games in a row with their 70-60 upset victory against Murray State as an 8-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Purdue is playing better on the defensive end of the court as they held the Longhorns to just a 39.7% shooting percentage after holding Yale to a 39.7% field goal percentage in the first round of the Big Dance. The Boilermakers rank second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are fourth in the country by making 39% of their shots from behind the arc and they rank 13th in the nation by shooting 56% inside the arc. Purdue has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams from outside the Big Ten — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court when laying 12.5 to 18 points. Saint Peter’s has pulled off two big upsets against good Kentucky and Murray State teams — but the road likely ends here against a Purdue team with huge size in their frontcourt and a potential NBA lottery pick in Jaden Ivey. The Peacocks rank just 224th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They turn the ball over in 20.6% of their possessions, ranking 310th in the nation. they also rank 348th in putting their opponent on the free-throw line — and that is what did Texas on Sunday with the Boilermakers going to the charity stripe 46 times and gaining a net edge of 24 points against them. And while the calling card of Saint Peter’s is their defense, their ranking of 15th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency drops to 59th in the country when playing away from home.
FINAL TAKE: Purdue has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament. While the two previous 15 seeds that advanced the Sweet 16 covered the point spread in their losses, that’s not a sample size I put any credence in. 20* CBB Saint Peter’s-Purdue CBS-TV Special with the Purdue Boilermakers (634) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (633). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-24-22 |
Houston v. Arizona -1 |
Top |
72-60 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 9:59 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona Wildcats (624) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (623) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Arizona (33-3) has won eight straight games after their 85-80 win in overtime versus TCU as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday. Houston (31-5) has won five in a row and 11 of their last 12 with their 68-53 victory against Illinois as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINT(S): Of course, it is true that Houston was underseeded by the NCAA Tournament committee. And not only is head coach Kelvin Sampson one of the best in the business but he has perhaps enjoyed his finest coaching season by recovering from early season injuries to Marcus Passer and Tramon Mark to have his team in the Sweet 16. But the seeding mistakes are corrected by the point spread. And while I know that the Cougars’ efficiency numbers place them as the second-best team in the nation using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics, this remains a team that is greater than the sum of its part. Credit Sampson for that — but when they face elite competition, Houston tends to hit their head on the ceiling. After reaching the Final Four last season, the Cougars lost by a 78-59 score to a Baylor team loaded with talent. The previous time they played a team ranked in Pomeroy’s top ten was in 2019 in the Sweet 16 of that Big Dance — and they lost 62-58. And while the American Athletic Conference features good teams but not a ton of NBA talent, the lone exception to that situation has been Penny Hardaway’s Memphis squad — and the Tigers handed Houston two of their five losses. Sticking with Pomeroy, the best win the Cougars have this season was on Sunday in their victory against the Illini -- a team with an NBA player in Kofi Cockburn but who has otherwise been inconsistent and disappointing. This Arizona team is not only the most talented group that Houston will have played all season — but they are probably better than that P.J. Washington and Tyler Herro Kentucky team from three years ago who lost in the Elite Eight to Auburn. The Cougars stifled Illinois to just 34.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Sampson out-coached Brad Underwood (and I incorrectly took the Illini to cover). But eventually, coaches cannot outscheme talent — and this Arizona team is seventh in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Also note that while Houston ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, that number drops to 33rd in the nation when they play on the road where they allow almost 10 more points per 100 possessions (based on adjusted numbers). And while the Cougars have covered the point spread in five straight games and nine of their last ten games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in eight or more of their last ten games. Arizona only made 45.6% of their shots against the Horned Frogs which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They made only 5 of their 27 shots (18.5%) from behind the arc. Point guard Kerr Kriisa struggled in his return to the court after not playing in their opening-round win against Wright State — he missed nine of his ten shots from behind the arc. But he did play 27 minutes and have a positive +/- number while quarterbacking the team. Furthermore, the Wildcats held TCU to just 35.1% shooting after limiting the Raiders to 34.8% shooting in the opening round of this tournament. Arizona got a scare — but that experience should sharpen them for this showdown. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games (including their last four this season) after not making at least 20% of their shots from 3-point range in their last game. TCU dominated Arizona in the offensive glass by pulling down 20 boards — that kept the Horned Frogs in the game. Houston is also one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation — but the Wildcats have a size edge. The Cougars’ success getting second-chance opportunities speaks to their schemes and ambition to get offensive rebounds rather than NBA talent. Memphis’ size gave Houston problems — and I expect Arizona’s side edge to do the same with head coach Tommy Lloyd having a few days to work on this concern. The Wildcats beat one of the tallest teams in the nation in USC by 20 and nine points respectively this year. And Lloyd can play some very tall lineups by giving more minutes to the 7’0 Oumar Ballo along with regulars in the 6’11 Azuolas Tubelis and the 7’1 Christian Koloko. Arizona has been more effective playing away from home where they rank fifth in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency as compared to their ranking of 11th in the country in that metric when playing at home. They have covered the point spread 7 of their last 8 games on the road when playing their third game in seven days. They have covered the point spread 13 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: Houston allows only 59.0 Points-Per-Game this season — but Arizona has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who do not allow more than 64.0 PPG. 25* CBB Thursday Television Game of the Year with the Arizona Wildcats (624) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (623). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-24-22 |
Texas Tech v. Duke +1 |
|
73-78 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 9:39 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (630) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (629) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (30-6) has won four of their last five games with their 85-76 victory against Michigan State as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. Texas Tech (27-9) has won four of their last five games with their 59-53 win against Notre Dame as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Chase Center in San Francisco.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The Red Raiders are a trendy pick tonight against a Duke team that everyone seemingly wants to fade. I get it. But these folks are hitching their ride on a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by six points or less. Texas Tech has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road after winning at least two games in a row. They held the Fighting Irish to just a 32.7% field goal percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. But the Red Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after not allowing their last opponent to shoot better than 33% from the field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. I appreciate the outstanding defense this team plays under head coach Mark Adams who was the architect as Chris Beard’s assistant coach. But this Texas Tech lacks elite talent that will likely make a difference at the next level. They also turn the ball over in 20.0% of their possessions, ranking 285th in the nation. The Red Raiders only make 32.7% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 252nd in the nation. Texas Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court. Duke covered the point spread four the first time in their last five games with their victory against Michigan State — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after not covering the point spread in three of their last four games. I held off on making a call in this game until I saw a status update on freshman A.J. Griffin — but head coach Mike Krzyzewski indicated that he expected him to play tonight. He joins Paolo Banchero, Mark Williams, and sophomore Wendall Moore who all likely be playing in the NBA. Banchero is the best player on the court tonight. Coaching counts — and schemes are important. But don’t underestimate talent. Duke has a distinct edge in talent in this one.
FINAL TAKE: Texas Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games played when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CBB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Duke Blue Devils (630) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (629). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-24-22 |
Michigan v. Villanova -4.5 |
|
55-63 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 7:29 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (626) minus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (625) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. Villanova (28-7) has won seven in a row and 12 of their last 13 games with their 71-61 win against Ohio State as a 5-point favorite on Sunday. Michigan (19-14) has won three of their last four games with their 76-68 upset win against Tennessee as a 7-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the AT&T Center in San Antonio.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: The narrative that lays out the best-case scenario for the Wolverines is that they are a team that needed time to develop after losing three players who moved on to the NBA including two players who are getting regular minutes as a rookie in Franz Wagner and Isaiah Livers. Michigan was considered a top-five team to begin the season because of an outstanding freshman class joining a core group of veterans led by Hunter Dickinson. But injuries, COVID, head coach Juwan Howard’s end of the year suspension along with a very challenging non-conference campaign tarnished the Wolverines’ record. Yet here they are back in the Sweet 16 for the fifth consecutive Big Dance. If the freshman play at their potential, this will be a very hard team to beat. But Caleb Houstan and Missousa Diabate have still been too streaky even in the postseason. Michigan desperately needs Houstan to make outside shots — and his 3 of 8 effort from downtown helped the Wolverines get past Colorado State in the opening round. But Houstan did not score against the Volunteers — and he has not made more than three shots from behind the arc since February 23rd. Diabate stepped up and scored 13 points against Tennessee — but that was just the second time in his last six games where he scored more than 7 points. Throw in a questionable DeVante Jones into the mix — and I am not sure Michigan has enough firepower to keep up with a consistently excellent Wildcats’ team. Jones missed the opening game against the Rams with a concussion. He did play against the Vols — he has 2 points and 3 assists in 12 minutes — before suffering a knock that kept him out of the entire second half. Howard says that Jones is “on track” to play after practicing the last two days — but even if that is the case, he is at significant risk of suffering another blow that will require him to leave the game out of necessary precaution. Freshman Frankie Collins has stepped up nicely at the point in his absence — but the 14 points he scored against Colorado State was a season-high. The Wolverines are not likely to shoot the lights from 3-point land. They have made only 10 of their 30 shots from downtown in this Big Dance — and the last time they made at least 10 shots from behind the arc in a game was February 10th. They rank 166th in the nation by making 33.9% of their 3-pointers. They rank 77th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They do not force turnovers — they rank 337th in that category. Michigan is a solid rebounding team that pulls down 30.9% of their misses — but by ranking 83rd in the nation, that is not an elite figure. There is so much that has to go right for the Wolverines to stay competitive. The Volunteers had eight net turnovers against them, four more offensive rebounds, and made 53% of their shots inside the arc. Michigan won the game because they made 50% of their shots (after shooting 54.2% from the field against the Rams) and Tennessee missing 16 of their 18 shots from distance. Villanova will not be as generous. This looks like a letdown spot for the Wolverines as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning three of their last four games. And while they covered the point spread in their first two games in the Big Dance, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Villanova may be smaller — but they are well-practiced in making it hard for opponents to get the ball down in the post. And for every advantage Michigan might have on offense with their size, those big men are then put at a disadvantage when they have to guard a player like the 6’8 Eric Dixon on the perimeter. Dickinson struggled when trying to defend Tennessee big men who drew him outside paint on Saturday. Villanova makes 36.2% of their shots from distance. Their defense has been spectacular lately as they held their last five opponents to 58.8 Points-Per-Game on 39.8% shooting and just a 21.9% mark from behind the arc. They also have perhaps the best team captain in the nation in Collin Gillespie who has 34 points and eight assists so far in this tournament.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan’s fifth straight Sweet 16 appearance warrants their involvement as one of the top programs in the nation. But Villanova is already in that mix with two national championships since 2016 including their 2018 title when they beat the Wolverines in the finals. The Wildcats have registered 15 double-digit wins in the Big Dance since 2016 under head coach Jay Wright. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 NCAA Tournament games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court laying up to six points. The Wildcats’ formula for success has a great track record — and they make 78.6% of their free throws to boot so the late cover is a distinct possibility if we need a Plan B to cash tickets with this play. 10* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Villanova Wildcats (626) minus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (625). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-24-22 |
Arkansas v. Gonzaga -9.5 |
Top |
74-68 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
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At 7:09 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (628) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (627) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Gonzaga (283) is on a four-game winning streak after outlasting Memphis by an 82-78 score as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. Arkansas (27-8) has won eight of their last ten games after their 53-48 victory against New Mexico State as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Chase Center in San Francisco.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Gonzaga got a scare against a talented Tigers’ team as they had to rally from a double-digit halftime deficit to advance to the Sweet 16. There were times in both that game and their opening-round victory against Georgia State where Drew Timme simply took over. He scored 57 points while grabbing 27 rebounds in the two games last week. Memphis was ranked in the top ten in a few power rankings since February — Gonzaga beat one of the best teams in the country that was playing much better when finally healthy. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a victory there they did not cover the point spread. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning at least four games in a row. And while Gonzaga has only covered the point spread twice in their last eight games, they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after not covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Bulldogs have scored at least 81 points in their last four games since their loss to Saint Mary’s — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 80 points in four straight games. Gonzaga is the best scoring team in the nation — they lead in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency along with their effective field goal percentage of 59.3% and their 61.0% shooting clip inside the arc. They are also second in the country by averaging only 14.6 seconds per possession — and their fast pace will make it easier for them to cover a point spread in the 10-point range. The Bulldogs also sport the ninth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while leading the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 43.0%. Arkansas made only 27.5% of their shots in their victory against the Aggies which is why they did not cover the 6.5-point spread despite holding New Mexico State to 48 points. This lack of scoring punch is a big problem — they are only making 38.7% of their shots in their last five games while not making more than 43.4% of their shots over that span which is why they are scoring just 69.0 PPG during that span. In theory, the Razorbacks are at their most dangerous if J.D. Notae can put them on his back. In practice as of late, the senior guard is slumping. He has not scored more than 19 points in four postseason games starting with the SEC Tournament. He has made only 25 of his last 88 shots (31.8%) in his last six contests. And he has not made more than two shots from behind the arc since February 19th. Furthermore, after collecting nine personal fouls in the first two rounds of the tournament, he is at risk of drawing fouls against the Bulldogs — and head coach Eric Musselman is dogmatic about not keeping a player on the floor before halftime if he collects two personal fouls in the first half. Arkansas has a short bench that gets into trouble if Notae and Jaylin Williams are not playing together at the same time. If the Razorbacks fall behind, they are not likely to shoot themselves back in the game because they only make 30.5% of their 3-pointers, ranking 314th in the nation. The Arkansas formula for success is forcing turnovers — they rank 58th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.5% of their opponent’s possessions — and getting to the free-throw line where they rank 15th in the country in free throw rate. But the Bulldogs rank 22nd in the nation defensive free throw rate -- and they are 29th in the country by turning the ball over in just 15.5% of their possessions. The Razorbacks may be too small to hang with Gonzaga as well — they rank 209th in team size while the Bulldogs are seventh in that metric. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games played on a neutral court with the Total in the 150s. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the Big Dance.
FINAL TAKE: Arkansas will engage in the pace Gonzaga wants to play — they rank 45th in the nation by averaging 16.4 seconds per possession while ranking 52nd in the country with their opponents ranking 17.0 seconds per possession. Look for Gonzaga to pull away and cover the point spread in this one. 10* CBB Arkansas-Gonzaga CBS-TV Special with the Gonzaga Bulldogs (628) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (627). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-22-22 |
Vanderbilt +2.5 v. Xavier |
Top |
73-75 |
Win
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100 |
1 h 6 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Vanderbilt Commodores (611) plus the point versus the Xavier Musketeers (612) in the Quarterfinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Vanderbilt (19-16) has won two in a row and five of their last six contests with their 70-68 victory against Dayton in overtime as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Xavier (20-13) has won three of their last four games after their 72-56 victory against Florida as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMODORES PLUS THE POINTS: Vanderbilt beat the Flyers despite only making 37.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. The Commodores have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. Vanderbilt ranks ninth in the nation in getting to the free-throw line — and they are 38th in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have wins against Arkansas, Alabama, and LSU who all made the NCAA Tournament. Vanderbilt is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Xavier held the Gators to just 32.8% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 24 games. The Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Xavier ranked just sixth in the Big East in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 51.6% was 10th in the conference. They host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Xavier may be without their second-leading scorer Paul Scruggs who injured his knee in the game against Florida. The Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when favored. Vanderbilt has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Game of the Year on the Vanderbilt Commodores (611) plus the point versus the Xavier Musketeers (612). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-20-22 |
Texas +3.5 v. Purdue |
Top |
71-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
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At 8:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (819) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (820) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas (22-11) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 81-73 victory against Virginia Tech as a 1.5-point favorite on Friday. Purdue (28-7) has won four of their last five games with their 78-56 victory against Yale as a 16.5-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: In this battle of elite defense versus elite offense, I give the decided edge to the Texas defense. First-year head coach Chris Beard’s “no middle” schemes are aggressive in attacking the ball in the post to force perimeter or bad-angle side looks to the basket. His Texas Tech teams were outstanding in coaxing their opponents into taking bad shots. The Longhorns team he has assembled in Austin has warmed to his scheme as they rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and I expect Beard’s bunch to play their best defense of the season in the NCAA Tournament. The challenge is stiff against this Boilermakers team that ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But Purdue’s strength is in the interior with their twin towers of Trevion Williams and Zach Edey. But Texas ranks in the top-20 in defense at the rim and in the top-10 in post-up defense — so they should have success in getting Purdue to rely on their outside shooting. The Boilermakers still have an outstanding player maker and scorer in Jaden Ivey — but that is where the Longhorns’ Courtney Ramey enters the picture. Ramey is an outstanding defender who stymied Kansas’ Ochai Agbaji in two regular-season contests. Not only did Agbaji endure his two fewest-shot attempt games against Texas but he only had one field goal in the final regular-season game with Ramey hounding him. Texas’ issues have been on the other end of the court — but they were impressive against a red hot Virginia Tech team on Friday. The Longhorns scored at a 1.19 Points-Per-Possession rate while making 10 shots from behind the arc. Texas may prove to be a better offensive team than their numbers suggest now that they are outside the Big 12 competition that boasts stout defensive clubs like Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech, and TCU. The Longhorns had failed to cover the point spread in four straight games before beating the Hokies (and six of seven) — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Furthermore, Texas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with one day of rest — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing their second game on the road in three days. Purdue held Yale to just a 36.5% shooting percentage in their win on Friday — that was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. But the Boilermakers are not a great defensive team as they rank 90th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This is the weak link for them in this contest. Purdue is outside the top-100 in protecting the rim — and the Longhorns are seventh in the nation in shot attempts at the rim. Texas has struggled to score baskets against teams who force turnovers — but that is not the Boilermakers who rank 346th in the nation by forcing turnovers in just 14.2% of their opponent’s possessions. Additionally, the potent Purdue offense is not quite as dynamic when playing away from West Lafayette. While the Boilermakers lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home, they drop to fifth in the country when playing on the road. That’s still pretty good — but while they make 40.5% of their shots from behind the arc at home, that mark drops to a 37.1% clip when playing away from home. Purdue is 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after winning four or five of their last six games. And while Purdue had gone seven straight games without covering the point spread before playing Yale, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games.
FINAL TAKE: The Boilermakers are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 games when favored. Texas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing on the neutral court as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in tournament settings including three of their four tourney games this season under Beard. 25* CBB Round of 32 Game of the Year with the Texas Longhorns (819) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (820). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-20-22 |
Notre Dame v. Texas Tech -8 |
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53-59 |
Loss |
-105 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (828) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (827) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (26-9) has won three of their last four games after their 97-62 win against Montana State as a 15-point favorite on Friday. Notre Dame (24-10) has won three of their last four games with their 78-64 upset win against Alabama as a 4-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Viejas Arena in San Diego.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas Tech made a season-high 66.7% of their shots against the Bobcats — and I expect them to build off their momentum tonight. The Red Raiders have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread win. If Texas Tech is operating at even a pretty high level on offense, they are very tough to beat. The Red Raiders lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their defense travels as they also rank number one in the country in that metric when playing away from home. Texas Tech will be difficult to upset because they generate additional scoring opportunities. They pull down 33.2% of their missed shots, ranking 39th in the nation. They also force turnovers in 23.6% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 10th in the nation — and the Irish turn the ball over in 22.1% of their possessions, ranking 334th in the country. If there is a weakness to this team, it is that they turn the ball over in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions — but Notre Dame ranks 333rd in the country by forcing turnovers in 15.2% of their opponent’s possessions. This is a difficult spot for the Fighting Irish playing their third game in five days — and remember that they survived double overtime in the First Four so the physical and mental road has been grueling. They made 10 of their 16 (62.5%) of their shots from behind the arc continuing a theme this week of teams we bet against enjoying outlier performances from behind the arc. But this is a small team that may get overwhelmed by the physical style of the Red Raiders. Furthermore, while Notre Dame made 39.3% of their 3-pointers at home, that number dropped to a 37.0% clip when playing on the road. Additionally, their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency ranking of 49th in the nation at home drops to a ranking of 128th on the road while giving up more than 5 points per 100 possessions in adjusted projections.
FINAL TAKE: The Fighting Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court as an underdog. Texas Tech has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. 10* CBB Notre Dame-Texas Tech TBS-TV Special with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (828) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (827). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-20-22 |
Iowa State v. Wisconsin -3.5 |
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54-49 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
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At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (822) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (821) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (25-7) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 67-60 victory against Colgate as a 7.5-point favorite on Friday. Iowa State (21-12) ended their three-game losing streak with their 59-54 upset win against LSU as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin’s record and seeding may be tainted by a fortunate 12-2 record in games decided by one possession, but bettors are making a mistake in presuming that make this team overvalued vis-a-vis the point spread. The analytics that influences the point spread already this intangible into account. Furthermore, these same bettors (and other observers) are making a mistake in assuming that winning close games is exclusively a function of luck. Some characteristics make winning close games more likely to occur. And when a team has a star player who can close out games like the Badgers’ Johnny Davis, then the good record in close games becomes not so much based on luck. The Chicago Bulls won plenty of close games with Michael Jordan. Let’s not overreact to Wisconsin’s 25 wins — but let’s not overreact to a 12-2 record in close games either. The Badgers’ slide late in the season coincided with an ankle injury to Davis — but after a slow start against the Raiders on Friday that appeared to be triggered by nerves (from my vantage point watching the game), he stepped in the second half and ended the game with 25 points and eight rebounds. He tweaked his ankle at the end of the game so he may not be 100% today — a reason why I kept this play at just 10*s. Those of us backing the Badgers should have cashed winning tickets. While it will be impossible to forget the garbage time layup Colgate scored to conclude the game (rather than take a 3-pointer), the Raiders stayed competitive in the game by making a red hot 10 of 22 (45.6%) of their shots from behind the arc. Wisconsin usually holds their opponents to 32.7% shooting from 3-point range. The Badgers rank 34th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they improve to 17th in the country when looking exclusively at numbers away from home. Their play on defense jumps to ranking 22nd in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when on the road. Wisconsin has covered the point spread in 4 straight games with the Total set at 129.5 or less — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court with the Total below 130. Iowa State ranks eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency due to forcing turnovers in 24.7% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking fourth-best in the country. But good luck trying to get turnovers against this Badgers’ team that leads the nation by only turning the ball over in 12.6% of their possessions. The Cyclones’ defensive aggressiveness does lead them to foul too much — they rank 313th in the nation in putting their opponents on the foul line. Wisconsin is the wrong team to foul — they make 74.2% of their free throws. Iowa State got a fortunate draw against LSU just fired their head coach Will Wade. While a Steve Fisher situation for Michigan in 1989 was a possibility with the Tigers playing inspired basketball for an interim coach, a flat performance was also a distinct possibility. The Tigers made only 37.0% of their shots which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in the Cyclones’ last seven games. And Iowa State’s Tyrese Hunter came out of nowhere to make 7 of his 11 shots from behind the arc despite only shooting 28.3% from 3-point land this season. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with no more than one day of rest.
FINAL TAKE: Iowa State started the season 12-0 as they thrived on a soft non-conference schedule. They limped into the Big Dance have lost 12 of their last 19 games. Playing away from Ames against NCAA Tournament teams that were seeded no lower than a six, the Cyclones lost all five of those games with an average losing margin of -14.6 Points-Per-Game. 10* CBB Iowa State-Wisconsin TNT Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (822) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (821). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-20-22 |
Ohio State +5 v. Villanova |
|
61-71 |
Loss |
-109 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
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At 2:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (823) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (824) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (20-11) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 54-41 win against Loyola-Chicago in a pick ‘em matchup on Friday. Villanova (27-7) has won six in a row after their 80-60 victory against Delaware as a 14.5-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Kyle Young and Zed Key both returned to action for head coach Chris Holtmann against the Ramblers — and this is a different team when Ohio State has this added front-line depth. Both players missed time late in the regular season which played a large role in them losing four of their last five games. If there is a silver lining to an early exit in a conference tournament, it is the additional practice time it affords teams that are already safely in the Big Dance. Holtmann was able to use the week off to integrate Young and Key back into the mix to prepare for the NCAA Tournament — something he really could not do for over a month. I don’t think the analytics are accurately reflecting this team at this point given the injuries they endured during the season. The Buckeyes’ defensive numbers are not very good for the season — but Ohio State’s defensive effort was encouraging against Loyola. While the Ramblers endured some bad shooting luck in making only 26.8% of their shots, the Buckeyes deserve some credit in posting their best defensive effort of the season. Getting two 6’8 forwards back into the mix certainly helped the interior defense. Young scored 9 points and added 7 rebounds back in the starting lineup while Key came off the bench to grab 7 boards in 12 minutes of play. Additionally, Ohio State held the Ramblers to just 18 points in the first half after limiting Penn State to just 24 first-half points in the Big Ten Tournament — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after allowing no more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing a game where no more than 125 combined points in their last contest. And in their last 9 games playing with one day or less of rest, they have covered the point spread in 7 of these contests. The Buckeyes advanced to the second round despite making only one of their 15 shots from behind the arc. The Regression Gods should aid more of their 3s landing this afternoon. Ohio State ranks 13th in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency — and I think that underrates what their true value is now that they are healthy. They rank 37th in the nation by nailing 36.6% of their shots from downtown — so Friday was an aberration. The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when the Total is set in the 130s. Villanova may be due for some shooting regression after making 50.9% of their shots against Delaware. That was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread win. Furthermore, Villanova has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with one day or less of rest. I worry about the Wildcats as a multiple-possession favorite against good teams because they are proverbial “live by the 3, die by the 3” team. They rank 18th in the nation by taking 46.2% of their shots from behind the arc. They did nail 13 of their 28 shots from distance against the Hens on Friday — but they were playing a Delaware team ranked 275th in the nation in 3-point defense. Ohio State holds their opponents to 33.7% shooting from behind the arc — and that mark improves to a 32.5% clip when they are playing away from Columbus. Most telling, Villanova does their best shooting at home where they rank sixth in the nation by making 41.3% of their 3-pointers. But when they go on the road, that mark plummets to a 33.% clip — a very mediocre mark that ranks 167th in the nation. Plan A for head coach Jay Wright is 3-point shooting. If he needs a Plan B on offense, that will be tough with the reinvigorated Buckeyes’ frontline that ranks 30th in the nation by holding their opponents to 45.7% shooting inside the arc.
FINAL DEPTH: Villanova plays small-ball — so they may face some difficulties with the size Ohio State has again. The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games played on a neutral court. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog dog on a neutral court. 10* CBB Ohio State-Villanova CBS-TV Special with the Ohio State Buckeyes (823) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (824). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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