03-19-22 |
Memphis +10 v. Gonzaga |
|
78-82 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (795) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (796) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Memphis (22-10) has won seven of their last eight games after their 64-53 victory against Boise State as a 3-point favorite on Thursday. Gonzaga (27-3) has won three games in a row with their 93-72 win against Georgia State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament as a 22.5-point favorite on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Moda Center in Portland, Oregon.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis is a dangerous underdog in this game — even against Gonzaga. When head coach Penny Hardaway was bickering with the press, his team was not at full strength because of injuries. Now this team has won thirteen of their last fifteen contests — and one of the power rankings systems I use for analytics lists them as the ninth-best team in the nation in terms of Net Efficiency over their last ten games. The Tigers are certainly loaded with talent. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. This team possesses the characteristics that can make life difficult for the Bulldogs. They create extra scoring opportunities on both ends of the court. They are fifth in the nation by rebounding 37.5% of their missed shots. They force turnovers in 20.7% of their opponent’s possessions. They can also get hot from behind the arc as they make 36.0% of their shots, ranking 56th in the country. They have also continually improved their play on defense — they rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games. This group is far from perfect — their biggest weakness is being too loose with the basketball. They turn the ball over in 22.9% of their possessions, ranking 302nd in the nation — opponents steal ball in a nation-high 13.2% of their possessions. But if there is one thing that Gonzaga does not do well, it is forcing turnovers. The Bulldogs only water steals in 8.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 214th in the country. Their defensive turnover rate is 16.7%, ranking 285th. Memphis has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on a neutral court. Gonzaga has been showing some chinks in the armor since losing to Saint Mary’s. The Panthers gave them a serious run for 35 minutes on Thursday. They are just 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Furthermore, the Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games as an underdog — and Gonzaga is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Tigers present a similar profile to the Alabama team that upset the Bulldogs early in the season. Expect a close game. 10* CBB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Memphis Tigers (795) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (796). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-19-22 |
New Mexico State v. Arkansas -6.5 |
Top |
48-53 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (786) minus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (785) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Arkansas (26-8) has won two of their last three games with their 75-71 victory against Vermont as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday. New Mexico State (27-6) won their fourth straight game with their 70-63 upset win against Connecticut as a 6-point underdog on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAZORBACKS MINUS THE POINTS: New Mexico State nailed 11 of their 17 shots from behind the arc against the Huskies to trigger that upset victory — that was the best shooting mark from 3-point range all season. History is not likely to repeat itself tonight given that this Aggies team only makes 33.8% of their 3-pointers, ranking 173rd in the nation. New Mexico State has now covered the point spread in four straight games — but they may be due for an emotional letdown now. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in four straight contests. New Mexico State held UConn to just 22 first-half points after limiting Abilene Christian to just 21 first-half points in the WAC Tournament Championship Game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after not scoring more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. This Aggies’ team is solid and consistent — but they do not have the characteristics to produce variable events that can overcome the talent gap they will face tonight (unless they make 65% of their 3-pointers again — the 3-point shot is the great equalizer which can be very frustrating for us, in the short-term). The strength of this team is their rebounding — and they will impede the Razorbacks’ ambitions for second-chance points. But while New Mexico State is 41st in the nation by pulling down 33% of their misses, Arkansas holds their opponents to rebounding only 25.5% of their missed shots. The Aggies defense was much better at home in Las Cruces where they ranked 53rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they plummet to just 126th ranking in that metric when playing on the road. New Mexico State is much too loose with the basketball as they turn the ball over in 20.6% of their possessions, ranking 309th in the nation. Away from home, it is even worse as they lose possession 21.2% of the time. These bigger underdogs are more likely to pull upsets and cover point spreads when they can slow the pace of the game. The Aggies’ turnover problem works against this ambition — and the Razorbacks want to push the pace as they average 70.6 possessions per game, ranking 28th in the nation. Arkansas is a rock-solid -- ranking 20th in the nation at KenPom while registering wins against Tennessee, Auburn, Kentucky while sweeping all three against LSU. The Razorbacks rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. New Mexico State scores most of their points inside the arc — but Arkansas ranks 47th in the nation by holding their opponents to 46.5% shooting on their 2-point shots with that mark lowering to a 45.2% clip against SEC opponents. The Razorbacks also rank 18th in the nation in free throw rate — and they make 75.5% of their freebies so they should pull away late. This team’s biggest problem is they foul too much — but the Aggies were 11th in the WAC by making only 66.2% of their shots at the charity stripe. They should build off the momentum of their win on Thursday as they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a point spread loss.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first time New Mexico State is playing in the second round of the Big Dance in their last 12 appearances in this tournament. They have still failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in the NCAA Tournament. Arkansas is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Round of 32 Blowout Game of the Year is on the Arkansas Razorbacks (786) minus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (785). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-19-22 |
St. Peter's v. Murray State -8 |
|
70-60 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Murray State Racers (790) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (789) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Murray State (31-2) won their 21st game in the row on Thursday with their 92-87 win in overtime against San Francisco as a 1.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RACERS MINUS THE POINTS: We had San Francisco on Thursday — and it would have been great to see the Racers win by two points at the end of regulation time. This Murray State team is good — and they should overwhelm a Saint Peter’s team we were also on in their upset of the Wildcats. The Racers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a win by six points or less — including covering 6 of these last 7 situations. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games when playing their second game in three days. And while Murray State has only covered the point spread twice in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Additionally, the Racers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set at 129.5 or less. Saint Peter’s enjoyed the best shooting performance in their last 13 games by making 50.9% of their shots including nailing 9 of 17 (52.9%) from 3-point range. Expect a visit from the Regression Gods tonight. What was a bit troubling is that they pulled the upset despite Kentucky making 42.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seven games. The Peacocks’ ranked 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — but the red flag for this team is that they plummeted to 79th in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Saint Peter’s has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing their second game on the road in three days. The Peacocks are a dangerous underdog because they can make 3s and generate extra scoring possessions by crashing the boards and forcing turnovers — but the Racers do a good job defending these tactics. Murray State only turns the ball over in 17.0% of their possessions, ranking 88th in the country. They hold their opponents to rebounding only 25.3% of their misses, ranking 66th in the country. And their opponents only make 29.8% of their 3-pointers against them, ranking 20th in the country. Murray State also generates additional possessions — so they have ways to get out of trouble. They rank 11th in the nation by pulling down 35.3% of their missed shots. They also force turnovers in 20.6% of their opponents' possessions.
FINAL TAKE: Murray State is a more athletic version of what Saint Peter’s identity — but with a more efficient offensive attack that ranks 32nd in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency. The Racers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. The Peacocks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 120s. 20* CBB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Murray State Racers (790) minus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (789). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-19-22 |
North Carolina v. Baylor -5 |
|
93-86 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 12:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (792) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (792) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Baylor (27-6) has won six of their last seven games with their 85-49 victory against Norfolk State as a 20.5-point favorite on Thursday. North Carolina (25-9) has won seven of their last eight games with their 95-63 victory against Marquette as a 4-point favorite on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Baylor should keep their momentum going to tip off the Saturday card as they are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a point spread win. They are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. The reigning National Champions are dealing with injuries with big man Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua out the season and guard L.J. Cryer still out with a foot injury. This hurts head coach Scott Drew’s depth as he has now dropped down to a six-man rotation — but I don’t think this is the game where the lack of a good bench burns them. The Baylor team playing this afternoon is the same group that has rallied together since this pair of injuries in mid-February. The Bears ended the regular season winning five games in a row including a 10-point against Kansas despite these injuries. Freshman Jeremy Sochan has emerged as a versatile piece for Drew who has revved his scoring to 12 points-per-game since these injuries. North Carolina looked great against the Golden Eagles — but this is the same team that lost by 13 points to Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. The Tar Heels are solid but not spectacular on defense as they rank 53rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Baylor, on the other hand, ranks 11th in the nation in that metric. This North Carolina team shoots from distance better than some of the previous Roy Williams squads — but the Bears hold their opponents to just 29.7% shooting from behind the arc, ranking 18th in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: The Tar Heels are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games on a neutral court as an underdog. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the Big Dance — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight in the NCAA Tournament as a dog. Baylor is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games in the Big Dance. 10* CBB North Carolina-Baylor CBS-TV Special with the Baylor Bears (792) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (792). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-18-22 |
Colgate v. Wisconsin -7.5 |
Top |
60-67 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 9:50 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (762) minus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (761) in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (24-7) limps into the NCAA Tournament with two straight losses after their 69-63 upset loss to Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament as a 3.5-point favorite last Friday. Colgate (23-11) has won 15 games in a row after their 74-58 victory against Navy as a 7-point favorite to claim the Patriot League Tournament title back on March 9th. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin has been upset in two straight games — after previously riding a five-game winning streak. An ankle injury to Johnny Davis in their regular-season finale setback to Nebraska played a big role in those losses. Davis has not been at 100% — but I am betting (literally) that the week off will have him in better shape for this one tonight. And the Badgers are still the Badgers — a solid team with a reliable system under head coach Greg Gard. What potentially makes this group special is Davis is an All-American talent. Critics point to Wisconsin’s 12-2 record in games decided by five points or less to suggest that the Badgers are overrated. These observers are confusing seed value with point spread value. If you are going to invoke that the Ken Pomeroy metrics indicate that the Badgers were the seventh luckiest team in the nation, you might want to also mention that his same metrics predict Wisconsin as a 7-point winner in this one. So, the line is not off (unless you think a 0.5 to 1.0 difference is offering an actionable edge — I don’t). But I take the Pomeroy analytics with a grain or two of salt because they do not account for home/road splits. In another power rankings system I use, while the Badgers rank 31st in the nation overall, they rise to 14th in the country when evaluating play on the road or neutral courts. Wisconsin thrives away from home because their overall Adjusted Defensive Efficiency ranking 33rd in the country rises to a ranking of the 13th when evaluating road and neutral court play only. After only making 36.7% of their shots against Sparty last week — the worst shooting effort in their last 21 games — they should hit more shots tonight. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after losing two in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after losing two in a row by six points or less. Wisconsin has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Colgate covered the point spread in all three of their Patriot League Tournament games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering three in a row as a favorite. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three games in a row. The Raiders have become the cream of the crop in the Patriot League with a 54-12 mark in conference play in the last three seasons. But their most challenging contests this season were against St. John’s and Vermont which Pomeroy ranks as the 59th and 56th best teams in the country. Colgate lost by 18 points to the Red Storm and by 10 points to the Catamounts. By the way, Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin as the 32nd best team in the nation ever after their luck-tainted analytics. The Raiders are the prototype School Yard Bully whose style helps them bully lesser opponents before they cower in fear against stiffer competition. They don’t force turnovers (16.2%, 297th) or crash the glass (26.5%, 276th). Plan A to pull an upset is to nail their 3s. They shoot from behind the arc in 42% of their shot attempts — and they do nail 40% of them. But, while making 41.4% of their bombs when playing in their familiar gym, their 3-point shooting drops to 38.9% when away from home. That is still a good mark — but it is moving away from elite — and now they are facing a Badgers’ defense predicated on stopping 3-point shooting. Wisconsin ranks 59th in the country in limiting shots from behind the arc — and their opponents make just 32.3% of these shots. Their opponents generate just 27.8% of their points against Wisconsin from behind the arc, the 299th lowest mark in the country. Gard’s teams make it tough to beat the Badgers with a barrage of 3-pointers — and this Colgate team lacks a Plan B if Plan A fails. Finally, the Raiders’ play on defense is below average. They rank 198th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they plummet to 283rd in the country in that metric when they play away from home (and this highlights my biggest disagreement with the Pomeroy/Vegas point spread projection). Even worse, Colgate ranks 202nd in defending ball screens and they struggle against isolation — and these offensive tactics are the bread and butter of this Wisconsin team with Davis.
FINAL TAKE: Colgate has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams outside the Patriot League. Wisconsin is 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 games in the Big Dance — and playing down the street in Milwaukee sure doesn’t hurt. 25* CBB Round of 64 Game of the Year is on the Wisconsin Badgers (762) minus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (761). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-18-22 |
Notre Dame v. Alabama -3.5 |
|
78-64 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 4:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (776) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (775) in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Alabama (19-13) limps into the NCAA Tournament on a three-game losing streak after their 82-76 upset loss at Vanderbilt as a 5.5-point favorite last Thursday. Notre Dame (23-10) survived double-overtime on Tuesday with their 89-87 upset win against Rutgers in the First Four game in the NCAA Tournament. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Viejas Arena in San Diego, California.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: Congratulations to the Fighting Irish for advancing to the first round of the Big Dance — but these are terrible circumstances. As if playing an extra 10 minutes of physically and emotionally-grueling basketball on Wednesday was not enough, they then had to get on a plane to fly west from Dayton, Ohio to San Diego to play in an afternoon game that tips at 1:15 PM ET from their body clocks from earlier in the week. Notre Dame has allowed 87 points in each of their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games on the road after allowing at least 75 points in two straight games. The Fighting Irish beat (a now eliminated) Kentucky in December when John Calipari was still putting that team together — but this team is just 4-9 in their 13 games against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams. Alabama is wildly inconsistent who tends to live by the 3 and die by the 3 — but they are battle-tested after enduring perhaps the most difficult schedule in the nation. They were 8-8 against Quad 1 teams including a signature victory against Gonzaga. Granted, the Crimson Tide takes 48% of their shots from behind the arc — but the Irish do like to play zone defenses to cover for their lack of depth and size. The teams that give Alabama trouble tend to crash the offensive glass and force turnovers. The Crimson Tide allows their opponents to pull down 30.7% of their missed shots and they turn the ball over in 19.8% of their possessions. But Notre Dame only forces turnovers in 15% of their opponent’s possessions — and they only pull down 22.1% of their missed shots. Alabama should make more than the 35.8% of their shots that converted in their loss to the Commodores in the SEC Tournament. The Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three of their last four games.
FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games in the Big Dance. 10* CBB Notre Dame-Alabama TNT Special with the Alabama Crimson Tide (776) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (775). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-18-22 |
Miami-FL v. USC -2 |
|
68-66 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 3:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (756) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (755) in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: USC (26-7) limps into the NCAA Tournament losing three of their last four games after their 69-59 loss to UCLA as a 6-point underdog last Friday. Miami (FL) (23-10) had their three-game winning streak snapped with their 80-76 loss to Duke in the ACC Tournament as an 8.5-point underdog last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS MINUS THE POINTS: USC was flat last week in their rematch against their cross-town rivals — and the Bruins were extra-motivated to avenge an earlier loss to the Trojans this season. The Trojans only made 39.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last ten games. They also allowed UCLA to nail 48.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three contests. Head coach Andy Enfield’s team should rebound this afternoon — they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss. After a perfect 13-0 start this season, this Trojans team has some issues — but they don’t emerge against teams that have the size that can battle them on the boards like Arizona and Stanford. With four players in the starting lineup at 6’9 led by the 6’10 Isaiah Mobley, USC is the fourth-tallest team in the nation. They thrive off the glass where they pull down 33.8% of their missed shots, ranking 22nd in the nation. The Hurricanes allow their opponents to pull down 30.3% of their missed shots, ranking 268th in the country. And they forego offensive rebounding to get back on defense — they only rebound 23.4% of their missed shots, ranking 310th in the nation. USC is also very tough to score against in the perimeter — they hold their opponents to only 41.6% shooting inside the arc, ranking second in the nation. The Trojans have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the NCAA Tournament — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when playing on a neutral court as a favorite. Miami allowed Duke to make 50% of their shots — that was the fourth time in their last five games where they allowed an opponent to make at least 50% of their shots. This Hurricanes team struggles on defense as they may be the worst defensive team in head coach Jim Larranaga’s tenure at South Beach. Miami (FL) ranks 152nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they allow their opponents to nail 35.2% of their shots from downtown, ranking 267th in the nation. USC is a good shooting team from the perimeter as they make 35.4% of their shots from downtown, ranking 74th in the country. This Hurricanes team is a potent scoring team that thrives in transition where they lead the nation in scoring. But this transition game is not going to get as many opportunities with the Trojans controlling the glass. Miami is eighth in the nation in protecting the basketball — but this won’t help much against this USC team that does not force turnovers. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after winning at least three of their last four games. Miami is just 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament.
FINAL TAKE: USC is an unreliable favorite because they give away points on the free-throw line — they only make 66.6% of their shots at the charity stripe. But while blown free throws can ruin point spread covers for favorites laying multiple points — it is less of an issue when the favorite is not laying more than one possession’s worth of points. Tellingly, the Trojans have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CBB Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the USC Trojans (756) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (755). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-17-22 |
San Francisco +2.5 v. Murray State |
Top |
87-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Francisco Dons (731) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (732) in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (24-9) was eliminated in the West Coast Conference Tournament in an 81-71 loss to Gonzaga as a 14-point underdog on March 7th. Murray State (30-2) has won 20 straight games after winning the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament with a 71-67 victory against Morehead State as a 7.5-point favorite on March 5th. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DONS PLUS THE POINTS: San Francisco should be rested and ready for this contest. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a conference loss. The Dons are in a great situation against the Racers — but the initial challenge in assessing this game is determining the extent of the impact of them being without their 6’9 starting center Yauhen Massalski who was declared out tonight with a knee injury. For starters, San Francisco was without him for the game against Gonzaga — and that was the closest margin of victory for the number one ranked Bulldogs all season. Head coach Todd Golden has another reliable big man getting minutes in 6’9 Patrick Tape. Golden desperately needed size for this year’s team so he brought in both Massalski from San Diego and Tape from Duke. Tape was a three-year starter at Columbia where he scored 11.3 Points-Per-Game and pulled down 5.9 Rebounds-Per-Game before drawing the attention of Mike Krzyzewski, which is not too shabby. Massalski is the better offensive player — but Tape has been in the rotation all season and is capable and experienced. The cogs to the Dons’ offense remain guards Jamaree Bouyea and Khalil Shabazz. The scoring loss from Massalski’s absence should be covered by the emerging wing Julian Rishwain. The former Boston College transfer has scored at least 13 points in four of his last five games — and he netted 20 points against Gonzaga. Golden gets the most of his team’s talent by deploying analytics — this is a team that takes 44.4% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 38th in the nation or they look for shots near the basket. The defense ranks 21st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 44th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Dons do a solid job of generating additional scoring opportunities as they rank in the top-150 in both forcing turnovers and offensive rebounding. What is intriguing about San Francisco is that while they rank 21st in the nation in one of the power ranking systems I use, they rise to 13th best in the country when playing away from home on neutral courts and true road environments using those metrics. They rank sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road while holding their opponents to 27.8% shooting from behind the arc, ranking seventh in the nation. This package helps explain why the Dons have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in tournament settings. After dominating the regular season and conference tournament, the bubble may be ready to burst for Murray State as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games on the road after a win. Furthermore, the Racers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after winning at least 15 of their last 20 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after winning at least five games in a row. I avoided betting against this team during the Ohio Valley Conference season for good reason — but I have noted that only two of their 30 victories were against teams that made the Big Dance. Murray State beat UT-Chattanooga — and their victory against Memphis was when the Tigers were imploding while playing undermanned. This is a young roster that has been untested when compared to the Dons who are a veteran team who played in a very competitive West Coast Conference. The Racers have great analytics — but we need to take them with a grain of salt given the teams they played. And San Francisco matches up well. Murray State ranks 11th in the nation in offensive rebounding — but the Dons are 33rd in the country by holding their opponents to just a 23.8% defensive rebounding rate. The Racers rank 28th in the nation in forcing turnovers — but San Fran only turned the ball over in 15.4% of their possessions in conference play. And I know Murray State ranks 25th in the country by holding their opponents to just a 30.1% shooting percentage from behind the arc — but let’s dig deeper. The Racers rank only 116th in the country in allowing open 3s and they are 118th in the nation in opponents' shots at either the rim or behind the arc — so they may be due a visit from the Regression Gods when it comes to opponent 3-point conversion rates. Murray State also only makes 69.2% of their free throws, ranking 267th in the nation — and we watched Notre Dame almost give away their game with Rutgers last night from misses at the charity stripe. Most importantly, the Racers put up their best numbers at home where they ranked 19th in the nation according to the power rankings system referenced earlier. But their ranking drops to 61st in the nation when they are playing away from home with their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at 74th and their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at 52nd. They make 44.3% of their shots away from home which generates 71.5 PPG which is 7.8 PPG below their season average. Tellingly, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court when the Total is in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: We are getting point spread value in this game with the public already disrespecting the Dons because they were on the wrong side of the bubble for many NCAA Tournament projection systems — and now add on the injury to Massalski. Injuries tend to be overestimated — especially in the short-term — vis-a-vis point spread aspirations. San Fran has talent and depth still that will be motivated to step up in his absence. I like Murray State — and I wish they were playing as an underdog against a bloated power conference foe. Instead, they face another mid-major upstart — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. 25* CBB Round of 64 Underdog of the Year with the San Francisco Dons (731) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (732). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-17-22 |
St. Peter's +18 v. Kentucky |
|
85-79 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (733) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (734) in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Saint Peter’s (19-11) won the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Championship Game with their 60-54 victory against Monmouth as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Kentucky (26-7) had their three-game winning streak end in the SEC Championship Game in a 69-62 upset loss to Tennessee as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PEACOCKS PLUS THE POINTS: Saint Peter’s won the conference championship despite only making 41.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in the MAAC tournament. They should feel confident entering this game. They are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a point spread victory. The Peacocks have the profile of a team that can make this very uncomfortable for head coach John Calipari. Saint Peter’s is one of the best defensive teams in the nation. They rank 35th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while making it very difficult on opposing shooters. The Peacocks rank 14th in the nation with their opponents making only 29.4% of their shots from behind the arc — and they rank 11th in the country with their opponents making just 44.0% of their shots inside the arc. They have held their last seven opponents to a mere 31% field goal percentage which translates into only 52 Points-Per-Game. With rim protector K.C. Ndefo who averages 2.9 blocks-per-game, Saint Peter’s has a big man who can give the Wildcats’ Oscar Tshiebwe some trouble down low. This stout defense travels as they hold their opponents on the road to just a 46.1% effective field goal percentage, ranking 19th in the nation. Admittedly, the Peacocks are not an offensive juggernaut — but they have some characteristics that keep them feisty and competitive. They will slow the game down — they average 18.4 seconds per possession, the 283rd slowest rate in the country. Their games see an average of 66.1 adjusted possessions, the 240th lowest number in the nation. Saint Peter’s is active in generating more scoring opportunities for themselves to get their shots to fall. They force turnovers in 20.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 41st in the nation. They also pull down 31.5% of their missed shots, ranking 70th in the country. The Peacocks do not take many 3s — but they are good when they shoot them. They nail 34.8% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 102nd in the nation — and that mark actually rises to a 36.1% clip when on the road, ranking 44th in the country. This formula for success works as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on a neutral court as an underdog. Kentucky will be frustrated after losing the SEC Championship Game — but they are just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a straight-up loss. The Wildcats can get in trouble — they only force turnovers in 17.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 232nd in the nation. Their offense can stagnate if they get lulled into the halfcourt slog that Saint Peter’s covets. Kentucky only makes 49.2% of their shots inside the arc when playing on the road, ranking 144th in the nation. And they are unlikely to pull away from 3-point shooting as they only make 32.1% of their shots from distance on the road, ranking 231st in the nation. The Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored — and the Peacocks are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog. The Wildcats are playing a lot of points for a game likely to not see more than 67 possessions. 10* CBB Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (733) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (734). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-16-22 |
Notre Dame v. Rutgers |
Top |
89-87 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
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At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (695) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (696) in the First Four Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (22-10) enters the Big Dance after losing in their first game in the ACC Tournament to Virginia by an 87-80 score in a pick ‘em matchup last Thursday. Rutgers (18-13) lost their opening game in the Big Ten after getting a double-bye into the quarterfinals in an 87-74 loss to Iowa as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Notre Dame has been the more consistent team this season — and their style of play is better situated to pull-out single-elimination contests. Head coach Mike Brey’s team should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after playing a game where both teams scored at least 80 points. Despite the early loss in the ACC Tournament, the Irish come into this game nailing 49.3% of their shots in their last five games which is generating 79.4 Points-Per-Game — and they have held these last five opponents to just 42.4% shooting from the field. Brey’s teams are usually efficient on the offensive end of the court. This Notre Dame team ranks 30th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and that mark rises to 29th in the country when they are playing away from South Bend. The Irish play at a slow pace but get the most out of their possessions — they are 28th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 15.5% of their possessions. They nail their 3s — they rank 18th in the nation by making 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc with that mark rising to a 39.6% clip in conference play. Their defense is solid with them doing a few things quite well. They limit their opponents to pulling down just 24.1% of their missed shots, ranking 39th in the nation. They have the 22nd lowest opponent free throw rate in the country. They were second in the ACC by holding their opponents to just a 29.6% shooting percentage from behind the arc. Overall, the Fighting Irish were second in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking third with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.9%. Some may quibble with their resume — their best victory was against a Kentucky team still finding their identity in December. They have a 4-9 record in their 13 contests against Q1 and Q2 teams. But they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Rutgers befuddles some observers because of their inconsistency this season. They went through a stretch in mid-February where they upset four-ranked teams in a row in Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Illinois. Yet they got upset by DePaul, UMass, and Lafayette (on their home court). I am not as puzzled by Rutgers — they play a high-floor but low-ceiling style of play that is much more effective when playing at home. They have a go-to scorer in Ron Harper, Jr. and they rank 42nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UConn won a National Championship with Kemba Walker with a star player and great defense. But that Huskies team did several other things pretty — like crash the glass. These Scarlet Knights don’t. They rank outside the top-100 in 3-point shooting, offensive rebounding, forcing turnovers, and free-throw rate. Plan-A is to make their shots while playing great defense. There is no Plan-B since they don’t create additional scoring possessions or steal points by making 3s or even make freebies at the charity stripe. They are a jump-shooting team — and these are the teams that go to die in the Big Dance. They rank 33rd in the nation in most mid-range jumpers — yet they rank in just 218th in the nation in making these shots. Big Ten teams usually play man-to-man defense — but they played zone against this team and Rutgers only scored at a .858 Points-Per-Possession rate against zone defense which was in the lowest-24th percentile. Now here comes this Irish team that plays plenty of zone defense to compensate for their lack of size and short bench. This is a bad matchup for the Knights. They rank 108th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — making only 33.6% of their 3-pointers and 49.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 181st and 203rd in the nation respectively. And their best defensive efforts have been on their home court. While they ranked 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, that defensive plummets to a 149th in the country slot when they are playing away from home. On the road, opponents make 34.4% of their 3-pointers and 52.4% of their 2-pointers, ranking 199th and 227th in the nation. Notre Dame should hit enough 3s to pull away in this game.
FINAL TAKE: Rutgers has the impressive five wins against Q1A teams this season — but they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (695) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (696). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-15-22 |
Santa Clara +3.5 v. Washington State |
|
50-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 46 m |
Show
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At 11:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Santa Clara Broncos (677) plus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (678) in the first round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Santa Clara (21-12) had their three-game winning streak end with their 75-72 loss to Saint Mary’s as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday in the West Coast Conference Tournament. Washington State (19-14) had their four-game winning streak end in a 75-65 loss to UCLA as a 9-point underdog in the Pac-12 Tournament on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Santa Clara only made 40.6% of their shots against the Gaels — after upsetting them in their previous regular-season meeting — which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. The Broncos do better tonight — they are one of the best shooting teams in the nation. They rank 18th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 55.2% fueled by their nailing 38.8% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking fifth in the nation. On the road, Santa Clara remains efficient with their shooting as they rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency playing away from home. Their effective field goal percentage of 54.6% is 14th in the nation — and they make 41.9% of their 3-pointers, ranking third-best for teams playing away from home. On the defensive end of the court, the Broncos rank seventh in the nation in putting their opponents on the free-throw line. And while they allow their opponents to make 42.8% of their shots which results in 71.8 Points-Per-Game, that marks drops to 69.7 PPG with those opponents hitting just 42.1% of their shots. Santa Clara has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games in the postseason. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. Washington State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Cougars have played three straight games Over the Total — and not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after playing two straight Overs, but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games after playing at least three straight Overs. Washington State plays stout defense — they rank 39th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But the Cougars can’t shoot — they make only 41.2% of their shots on their home court due to them only posting a 47.9% shooting clip inside the arc, ranking 294th in the nation. They make up for this shooting by generating more scoring possession by forcing turnovers in 21.4% of their opponent’s possessions and rebounding 33.6% of their missed shots. But the Broncos are tough to beat in these areas. They rank 43rd in the nation by turning the ball over in just 16.1% of their possessions — and that mark dropped to 15.3% in the West Coast Conference. They also hold their opponents to rebounding just 26.4% of their missed shots.
FINAL TAKE: The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored including four of their last five games at home when laying the points. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as an underdog. 10* CBB Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Santa Clara Broncos (677) plus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (678). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-13-22 |
Iowa +2.5 v. Purdue |
Top |
75-66 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
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At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (651) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (652) in the Championship Game of the Big Ten Tournament. THE SITUATION: Iowa (25-9) has won two straight games and seven of their last eight after their 84-74 victory against Rutgers as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (27-6) has won two straight and five of their last seven with their 69-61 victory against Penn State yesterday as a 10.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa should build off their momentum this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Hawkeyes’ offense is clicking — they are scoring making 49.2% of their shots in their last five games which are generating 86.4 Points-Per-Game. Iowa ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they lead the nation in that metric when playing on the road. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. They are also 16-7-2 ATS in their last 25 games played on a neutral court. Purdue held the Nittany Lions to just 40.7% shooting yesterday which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. But the Boilermakers are 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with one day or less of rest. The Boilermakers have not covered the point spread in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not covering the point spread in at least two games in a row. Purdue leads the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but there is a drop-off when are away from West Lafayette as they fall to fourth in the country in that metric when playing on the road. The Boilermakers are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games when favored — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing a team that is winning at least 60% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Purdue swept the two regular-season games against Iowa after beating them by an 83-73 score on January 27th. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 opportunities for same-season revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with double-revenge. 25* CBB Big Ten Conference Tournament Game of the Year with the Iowa Hawkeyes (651) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (652). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-12-22 |
Louisiana Tech +3.5 v. UAB |
Top |
73-82 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (635) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (636) in the Championship Game of the Conference USA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (24-9) reached the finals of this tournament with their 42-36 upset win against North Texas as a 4-point underdog yesterday. UAB (26-7) joined them in the Championship Game with their 102-98 victory in overtime against Middle Tennessee State as a 7-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Ford Center in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisiana Tech ground out a slugfest yesterday afternoon with both teams weary after playing the previous night. The Bulldogs held the Mean Green to just 24.1% shooting in the win. Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 50 points in their last contest. Louisiana Tech has won six of their last eight games — and they have covered the point spread in three straight contests. They should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning at least three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Bulldogs are effective on the defensive end of the court where they rank second in Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They lead the conference by holding their opponents to just 46.0% shooting inside the arc. This team also ranks second in the conference by making 52.1% of their shots inside the arc when on the road — and the Blazers allow their conference opponents to make 55.4% of their 2-pointers when they are playing on the road, ranking 12th in Conference USA. Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games with the Total set in the 130s — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral court. UAB is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. The Blazers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing with one day or less of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning at least four games in a row. And while UAB has scored at least 80 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 80 points in at least two straight games. The Blazers thrive in protecting their defensive glass — they hold their Conference USA opponents to rebounding just 24.1% of their missed shots. But this will not be much of a net advantage tonight against this Bulldogs team that sacrifices offensive rebounding for getting back on defense to defend against potential fast breaks. UAB also is 11th in the conference in putting their opponents on the free-throw line. The Blazers had a short turnaround yesterday afternoon after playing Thursday night -- so the extra overtime they endured will not help them tonight.
FINAL TAKE: UAB swept the two regular-season games this season after beating the Bulldogs by an 87-74 sore on March 5th — but Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities for revenge when they allowed at least 75 points in the loss. 25* CBB Conference USA Tournament Game of the Year with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (635) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-12-22 |
Memphis -4.5 v. SMU |
Top |
70-63 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (619) minus the points versus SMU (620) in the Semifinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Memphis (20-9) has won five straight games and 11 of their last 12 after their 85-69 victory against Central Florida as a 9.5-point favorite yesterday. SMU (23-7) has won three in a row and five of their last six after their 83-58 win against Tulsa as a 9.5-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Penny Hardaway bickered with the media earlier this season when his team was struggling — and he was adamant that his group should not be judged too harshly until they got back to full health. Cut to March — and the Tigers are playing some of the best basketball in the country. Over their last ten games, Memphis ranks third in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. Hardaway has his team generate extra scoring possessions by crashing the offensive glass and forcing turnovers on defense. The Tigers force turnovers in 21.2% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 35th in the nation. They pull down 37.4% of their missed shots, ranking fifth in the country — and that mark has risen to a 38.2% rebounding clip in their last ten games which is the top mark in the nation during that span. But what makes this Memphis so tough to beat now is that are taking better advantage of their scoring opportunities. The Tigers are nailing 37.8% of their shots behind the arc in their last ten games. In their last five games, they are nailing 49.3% of their shots which is generating 78.4 Points-Per-Game. They are holding their opponents to 39.2% shooting in their last five games which is translating into 63.0 PPG. Memphis ranks 24th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have improved to 13th in the country in that metric in their last ten games. They should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 after a point spread victory. And while the Tigers have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in four of their five games. Memphis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court. SMU held the Golden Hurricane to just 33.3% shooting yesterday which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. For the second straight game, the Mustangs made 13 shots from 3-point land — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after making at least ten shots from downtown in two straight games. SMU is also 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Tigers have held their last ten opponents to just 29.9% shooting from 3-point range. SMU makes 38.4% of their 3-pointers when playing at home — but their percentage drops to 34.7% when playing away from home. The Mustangs are also vulnerable against teams who crash the glass — they allow their opponents to pull down 33.0% of their missed shots when playing on the road, ranking 318th in the nation. SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog. And in their last 6 games in a tournament setting, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: SMU upset Memphis in their two regular-season games — and their 73-57 victory against them on February 20th was the only loss for the Tigers since January 20th. Memphis has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games when avenging a loss. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Memphis Tigers (619) minus the points versus SMU (620). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-11-22 |
USC +6.5 v. UCLA |
|
59-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (877) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (878) in the Semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament. THE SITUATION: USC (26-6) snapped their two-game losing streak in the Quarterfinals of this tournament yesterday with their 65-61 win against Washington as a 6.5-point favorite. UCLA (24-6) has won seven of their last eight games with their 75-65 win against Washington State as a 9-point favorite in their Quarterfinals contest on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: USC is getting their offense going by making exactly 49.0% of their shots in the second-straight game. They did not cover the point spread in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after a point spread loss. The Trojans have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing two of their last three games. And while USC has still won seven of their last nine games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 29 road games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Trojans have also covered the point spread in 4 straight road games when playing their second game in the last three days on the road. USC has a 13-3 record away from home on the strength of their stout play on defense as these opponents to 38.3% shooting which is resulting in 64.2 Points-Per-Game. The Trojans lead the nation in interior defense as they limit their opponents to just 42.3% shooting inside the arc. They also pull down 34.0% of their missed shots on the other end of the court — and that mark rises to a 35.5% clip in conference play, the top mark in the Pac-12. USC has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. UCLA made 47.5% of their shots which was the best shooting mark in their last three games. And by holding the Cougars to 41.5% shooting, they played the best defensive game in their last three contests. But the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least four games in a row. And while UCLA has played four straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing at least two straight Overs. Away from Pauley Pavilion, the Bruins only make 42.3% of their shots which results in 71.6 PPG — a 5.0 PPG drop from their season average. UCLA is not a very good shooting team — and that problem worsens in unfamiliar environments. They rank 260th in the nation by possessing a 47.0% effective field goal percentage on the road. They make only 32.8% of their 3-pointers on the road and just 46.2% of their shots inside the arc away from home, ranking 205th and 269th in the country. This poor shooting helps explain why the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings with the Trojans winning by a 67-64 score on February 12th before losing on the road by a 75-68 on March 5th. USC has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when avenging a loss where they gave up at least 75 points. 10* CBB Friday Late Show Bailout with the USC Trojans (877) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-11-22 |
Portland State +4.5 v. Northern Colorado |
Top |
79-86 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Portland State Vikings (873) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (874) in the Semifinals of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Portland State (14-16) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven after their 77-65 upset win against Southern Utah as a 6-point underdog yesterday. Northern Colorado (19-14) won their third game in their last four with their 68-67 victory against Eastern Washington as a 4-point favorite last night. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Idaho Central Arena in Boise, Idaho.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: I think we catching a much-improved team that is still beneath the radar of the betting market. First-year head coach Jase Coburn assembled the proverbial Island of Misfit Toys of castoffs from other conferences — but with six former Division I players coming in, this Portland State team has tons of talent for a Big Sky team. After a rocky start, the Vikings are putting it together late with 10 wins in their last 13 games. The biggest improvement has been on defense where they have held their last five opponents to 40.3% shooting which is resulting in 67.4 Points-Per-Game which is -4.3 PPG below their season average. Portland State is also making 45.5% of their shots over that span, a few notches above their 43.3% field goal percentage for the season. They were feeling it last night by nailing 51.9% of their shots at the Idaho Central Arena — so they will be comfortable playing in this gym. They also held Southern Utah to just 36.8% shooting. This good play should carry over as Portland State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset victory. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games playing away from home when playing without a day of rest. The Vikings will deploy one of the most effective full-court presses in the nation tonight. They rank 15th in the nation by forcing 23.2% of their opponent’s possessions — and they rank second in the country in their last ten games by forcing turnovers in 26.8% of their opponent’s possessions. This ability to force turnovers travels — Portland State ranks 11th in the nation in the net improvement they see in their play when on the road. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog including seven of these last nine occasions. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games played on a neutral court. Northern Colorado only made 11 of their 33 shots from inside the arc yesterday — but they bailed themselves out by nailing 13 of their 31 shots from 3-point range for a 41.9% clip. But the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they made at least 13 shots from behind the arc. Northern Colorado was also very fortunate that Eastern Washington made only 43.3% of their shots which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last ten games. The Bears can shoot the basketball — but they can’t defend. They rank 331st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they were tenth in the defensively-challenged Big Sky Conference. They allow their conference opponents to make 39.3% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 11th in the Big Sky. Their last five opponents have shot 49.7% from the field which has resulted in 79.8 PPG. Bad defensive teams make unreliable favorites. Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when laying the points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 tournament games.
FINAL TAKE: Portland State swept both regular-season games against the Bears — beating them by a 79-76 score on January 31st before holding them off again three days later in a 106-99 victory. Northern Colorado does not match up well against the Vikings since Portland State’s subpar shooting gets better scoring opportunities against the Bears. The Vikings forego protecting their defensive glass by looking for fast-break scoring opportunities — and Northern Colorado does not crash their offensive glass well as they only pull down 21.4% of their missed shots, ranking 344th in the nation. And the Portland State press was effective in both those earlier meetings as they forced 16 and 19 turnovers accounting for 21.9 and 23.7% of the Bears’ possessions. The Vikings are playing their best basketball of the season and will love the fast pace Northern Colorado embraces. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Tournament Game of the Year with the Portland State Vikings (873) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (874). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-11-22 |
Richmond v. VCU -3.5 |
|
75-64 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Virginia Commonwealth Rams (830) minus the points versus the Richmond Spiders (829) in the Quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: VCU (21-8) had their eight-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 69-65 loss at Saint Louis as a 2.5-point underdog. Richmond (20-12) ended a two-game losing streak with their 64-59 win against Rhode Island as a 6-point favorite in the second round of this tournament yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Capital One Arena in Washington D.C.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: VCU only made 45.5% of their shots against the Billikens which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. They should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss. VCU is a good basketball team that ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Rams’ identity on defense is founded on forcing turnovers — they are second in the country by forcing turnovers in 25.2% of their opponent’s possessions. This team also ranks third in the nation by holding their opponents to just 26.8% shooting from behind the arc. These attributes travel on the road which explains why VCU has covered the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court when favored. Additionally, the Rams are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games when favored — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. VCU does sacrifice protecting the defensive glass in the attempt to get fast-break scoring opportunities in transition — and the Spiders are not the team to punish them for this approach as they pull down only 22.7% of their missed shots, ranking 319th in the nation. Richmond has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral court, the Spiders have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: VCU demonstrated how well they matched up against this Richmond team by sweeping them in their two regular-season games this season. They last played on February 10th when VCU won by a 77-57 score. The Spiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 60 points in the loss — and they have to cover their 3 opportunities when playing with double-revenge. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Virginia Commonwealth Rams (830) minus the points versus the Richmond Spiders (829). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-10-22 |
Seton Hall +4.5 v. Connecticut |
Top |
52-62 |
Loss |
-107 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seton Hall Pirates (743) plus the points versus the Connecticut Huskies (744) in the Quarterfinals of the Big East Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (21-9) won their sixth straight game with their 57-53 victory against Georgetown last night as a 9.5-point favorite. Connecticut (22-8) has won six of their last seven with their 75-68 victory against DePaul as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE POINTS: Seton Hall survived a feisty Hoyas team last night that was motivated to pull off the upset of their season to offer some redemption from an otherwise disappointing year. The Pirates were flat to start the game as they found themselves trailing by 10 points with four minutes left in the first half while only scoring 24 points in the first 20 minutes of the game. But now with a game under their belt at Madison Square Garden, look for Seton Hall to play much better against a good Huskies team. The Pirates only made 38.6% of their shots last night which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They did hold Georgetown to just 30.6% shooting as they continued their torrid pace on the defensive end of the court. Seton Hall ranks 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 20th in the country with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.5%. They have held their last five opponents to 39.0% shooting which is resulting in just 61.4 Points-Per-Game. On the road, the Pirates limit their opponents to making only 44.8% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 12th lowest in the nation. They also pull down 34.4% of their missed shots on the road in Big East play, the top mark in the conference. Seton Hall has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court as a dog. Connecticut held the Blue Demons to just 39.4% shooting over the weekend which was the best defensive effort in their last four contests. They out-rebounded DePaul by a 49-31 margin in the win — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after out-rebounding their last opponent by at least 15 boards. The Huskies are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. UConn has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning at least four of their last five contests. The Huskies have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. Sometimes when a team is not covering spreads, it is because they are underachieving relative to their potential. However, point spread losing streaks can also indicate that a team is overrated relative to market expectations — and I think that is the case with UConn. The Huskies only make 48.4% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 230th in the nation. In Big East play, that shooting mark with their 2-pointers drops to 47.7%, the eighth-best in the conference. And when playing on the road, UConn is 318th in the country in putting their opponents on the free-throw line — and Seton Hall makes 76% of their freebies, ranking 39th in the country. The Huskies are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games when favored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two meetings this season — but it will be Seton Hall with the extra motivation of revenge after losing at UConn by a 70-65 score on February 16th. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and the Huskies are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 25* CBB Big East Game of the Year with the Seton Hall Pirates (743) plus the points versus the Connecticut Huskies (744). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-10-22 |
Vanderbilt +5.5 v. Alabama |
|
82-76 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Vanderbilt Commodores (751) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (752) in the second round of the SEC Tournament. THE SITUATION: Vanderbilt (16-15) has won two games in a row with their 86-51 victory against Georgia as an 8.5-point favorite last night. Alabama (19-12) limps into the SEC Tournament on a two-game losing streak with their 80-77 loss at LSU as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMODORES PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Jerry Stackhouse’s Vanderbilt team will be a tough out in the SEC Tournament. They rank 39th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also are third in the SEC by making 36.6% of their shots from behind the arc. If their shots are not falling, the Commodores should generate extra scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers. They rank 31st in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.3% of their opponent’s possessions. The Crimson Tide are vulnerable to pressure as they turn the ball over in 19.7% of their possessions, ranking 263rd in the nation — and that make worsened to a 20.2% clip against SEC competition. Vandy also gets to the free throw at the 14th most prolific rate in the country — and the Tide rank 263rd in the country in putting their opponents on the free-throw line. The Commodores have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after a victory. Away from home against conference opponents, Vanderbilt has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. The Crimson Tide are playing too many higher-scoring games which put them in jeopardy given their mediocre play on defense. They rank 13th in the SEC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 186th in the nation in that metric when playing on the road while giving up 80.5 Points-Per-Game. Their last five opponents have made 47.5% of their shots which has translated into 80.0 Points-Per-Game. Alabama’s last three games have seen at least 157 combined points scored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after playing two straight games where at least 155 combined points were scored. The Crimson Tide are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games when favored. And in their last 8 games with the Total set in the 140s, Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Alabama beat Vanderbilt in Tuscaloosa earlier this season by a 74-72 score — but the Commodores have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games opportunities to avenge a loss on the road. 10* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Vanderbilt Commodores (751) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (752). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-10-22 |
UC-Santa Barbara -2 v. Cal-Irvine |
Top |
78-69 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (793) minus the point(s) versus the UC-Irvine Anteaters (794) in the Quarterfinals of the Big West Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: UC-Santa Barbara (16-10) has won five in a row after their 67-60 victory against Hawai’i as a 7-point favorite last Thursday. UC-Irvine (15-9) has won two of their last three games after their 66-61 victory at Cal-State Bakersfield as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Dollar Loan Center in Henderson, Nevada.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GAUCHOS MINUS THE POINT(S): UC-Santa Barbara comes into the Big West Tournament with momentum. The Gauchos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning at least three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning at least four games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games after winning five or six of their last seven games. UC-Santa Barbara beat the Rainbow Warriors despite allowing them to make 50% of their shots in what was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last 12 games. And while they made 53.1% of their shots, that was the lowest field goal percentage in their last three games. The Gauchos have nailed at least 52.3% of their shots in seven of their last nine games. This is a potent scoring team that ranks 37th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 53.5%. They are 19th in the nation with a 55.4% shooting percentage inside the arc. They also rank 17th in the country in getting to the free-throw line. UC-Santa Barbara maintains their scoring prowess when playing away from home. They led the Big West with an effective field goal percentage of 54.5% when playing away from home in conference play. They also led the conference by making 40.4% of their shots from behind the arc when on the road. The Gauchos have a 5-7 record on the road — but they outscored those opponents. If their shots are not falling, they create additional scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers in 21.1% of their opponent’s possessions in conference play, the second-best mark in the Big West. The Anteaters are loose with the basketball as they rank 317th in the nation in turnover rate — and they were ninth in the Big West by turning the ball over in 22.2% of their possessions. On the road, UC-Irvine’s turnover rate rose to a 23% clip in conference play. UC-Santa Barbara comes into this game rested — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road when playing with five or six days of rest. Additionally, they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 tournament games. UC-Irvine comes into this tournament as the winner in nine of their last eleven games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning at least eight of ten. Their victory against the Roadrunners finished Over the 126.5 point total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They are just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Anteaters play great half-court defense — but they do struggle to score points, especially on the road. They have a 6-8 record on the road while getting outscored by -3.0 Points-Per-Game. They rank ninth in the Big West in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road in conference play — and they make only 41.2% of their shots away from him which translates into just 60.6 PPG. They only make 30.9% of their shots from 3-point range on the road in conference play, ranking ninth in the conference. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: UC-Irvine won the only meeting between these two teams on February 3rd by a 53-52 score. The Anteaters did turn the ball over 20 times in that — representing 32.8% of their possessions. The Gauchos have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 opportunities for same-season revenge. 25* CBB Big West Game of the Year with the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (793) minus the point(s) versus the UC-Irvine Anteaters (794). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-10-22 |
TCU +6 v. Texas |
|
65-60 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (753) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (754) in the Quarterfinals of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: TCU (19-12) limps into the Big 12 Tournament on a two-game losing streak after their 70-64 loss at West Virginia as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. Texas (21-10) has lost two games in a row after their 70-63 loss at Kansas as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS PLUS THE POINTS: TCU should play better this afternoon as they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. And while TCU has still covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 contests after covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games. The Horned Frogs have three high-profile victories against Texas Tech, Kansas, and LSU who all rank in the top-17 in the nation according to the Ken Pomeroy metrics. Head coach Jamie Dixon’s team ranks second in the nation by pulling down 37.9% of their missed shots. This is an area of vulnerability for the Longhorns as they allow their opponents to rebound 29.6% of their missed shots, ranking 237th in the country. TCU also ranks 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their loss to the Mountaineers fell Under the 137 point total — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. They are also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Horned Frogs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on a neutral court as a dog. Texas lost to the Jayhawks over the weekend despite holding them to just 31.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after not allowing their last opponent to make more than 33% of their shots. Texas is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games when playing their second game in eight days. The Longhorns have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing at least two games in a row. Another flaw with head coach Chris Beard’s team is they put their opponents on the foul line too much — they rank 311th in the nation in defensive foul rate. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. The Longhorns have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored or a pick ‘em on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Texas swept the two regular-season meetings with TCU this season after their 75-66 win in Austin on February 23rd. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when motivated by double revenge. 10* CBB Thursday Afternoon Matinee with the TCU Horned Frogs (753) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (754). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-09-22 |
Butler +6.5 v. Xavier |
|
89-82 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Butler Bulldogs (669) plus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (670) in the first round of the Big East Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Butler (13-18) limps into the Big East Tournament on a five-game losing streak after their 78-59 loss to Villanova as an 8.5-point underdog on Saturday. Xavier (18-12) snapped their five-game losing streak with their 97-75 win against Georgetown as a 13-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: We had Butler on Saturday in what I thought would be a better effort — but they laid an egg. The Bulldogs only made 36.4% of their shots in what was the worst shooting effort in their last four games — and the 49.2% field goal percentage they allowed the Wildcats to enjoy was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four contests. But Butler has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a loss at home where they did not score at least 60 points. Furthermore, Butler has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after losing at least two in a row to conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after losing at least three games in a row. Despite their losing record, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog. Butler has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130s — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 27 opening games in a tournament. Xavier made 54.7% of their shots against the Hoyas on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last 16 games. But the Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after a win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win by 20 or more points. Xavier has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored. Additionally, the Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when favored on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Xavier swept the two regular-season contests against Butler after a 68-66 win at home in Cincinnati on February 2nd as an 11-point favorite. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 opportunities for revenge. 10* CBB Wednesday Afternoon Matinee with the Butler Bulldogs (669) plus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (670). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-08-22 |
North Dakota State +6.5 v. South Dakota State |
Top |
69-75 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the North Dakota State Bison (621) plus the points versus the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (622) in the Summit League Championship Game. THE SITUATION: North Dakota State (23-9) has won three straight games and nine of their last ten contests with their 92-72 victory against Oral Roberts as a 1-point favorite in the Semifinals of this tournament last night. South Dakota State (29-4) is on a 20-game winning streak after their 83-60 win against South Dakota as a 9-point favorite in the semifinals nightcap last night. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Sanford Premier Center in Sioux Fallas, South Dakota.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BISON PLUS THE POINTS: North Dakota State was feeling it last night with their stroke as they nailed 60.3% of their shots in the win against the Golden Eagles. While I do not expect them to match that performance tonight, it is safe to say that they are comfortable shooting in this gym. The Bison have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after a double-digit win against a Summit League opponent. North Dakota State thrives when playing half-court defense. They lead the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.9%. The Bison lead the Summit in both 3-point and 2-point defense. They hold their conference opponents to 31.7% shooting from behind the mark — and that mark lowers to a 24.9% clip when playing away from home. They also limit their Summit League foes to just 48.1% shooting inside the arc — and that mark drops further to a 46.8% clip when playing away from home. North Dakota State has a 7-2 record away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against Summit League opponents. South Dakota State played one of their best games of the season last night. Their 59.6% field goal percentage was the best shooting mark in their last five contests — and by holding the Coyotes to just 44.6% shooting, they played their best defensive game in their last four contests. South Dakota State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning their last game by 20 or more points. And while the Jackrabbits have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. South Dakota State leads the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 62.6%. But this team is vulnerable against teams who can shoot the basketball because of their play on defense. The Jackrabbits rank 303rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.7% ranks 290th in the country fueled by their opponents nailing 37.4% from behind the arc, ranking 307th in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: South Dakota State swept both games against North Dakota State this season — but both victories were by just four points. The Jackrabbits have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court when favored — and the Bison have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when playing on a neutral field as an underdog. 25* CBB Summit League Game of the Year with the North Dakota State Bison (621) plus the points versus the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (622). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-07-22 |
Santa Clara +5 v. St. Mary's |
Top |
72-75 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Santa Clara Broncos (889) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (890) in the Semifinals of the West Coast Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Saint Mary’s (24-6) is on a four-game winning streak after upsetting Gonzaga by a 67-57 score as a 10.5-point underdog back on February 26th. Santa Clara (21-11) has won three straight games after their 91-67 victory as an 8.5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of this tournament on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Saint Mary’s comes off their biggest win all season — and their biggest victory since 2019 when they upset Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference Tournament Championship Game to clinch their last berth into the NCAA Tournament. An emotional letdown is likely for the Gaels. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win against a West Coast Conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after an upset win by 10 or more points under head coach Randy Bennett. And while Saint Mary’s has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. This did hold the Bulldogs to just 36.7% shooting after holding San Diego to 36.5% shooting in a 60-46 victory two days prior — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after not allowing their last two opponents to shoot better than 37% from the field. The Gaels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two games by 10 or more points. The other troubling aspect for Saint Mary’s tonight is the nine days off since they last played — they could be rusty in this contest, especially when playing on an unfamiliar neutral court. The Gaels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with at least seven days between games. While Saint Mary’s was a perfect 16-0 on their home court, they were only 8-6 in their 14 games away from home where they only made 44.4% of their shots. The Broncos are vulnerable to teams who can make 3s — but the Gaels only make 33.3% of their 3-pointers when playing away from home, ranking 195th in the nation. Saint Mary’s is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on a neutral court — and they are 1-3-1 ATS In their last 5 games played on a neutral court. The Gaels led the West Coast Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.3% of their opponent’s possessions — but Santa Clara protects the basketball as they led the conference by only turning the ball over in 15.1% of their conference possessions played away from home. The Broncos have won eight of their last ten games and 14 of their last 19 contests after overcoming some key absences early in the season. Their 6’9 star forward, Josip Vrankic, missed early games after a case of mono, and center Jaden Bediako missed some time in December leaving the team without depth upfront. But Santa Clara is rolling now with their last six losses all being against the big three in the conference in Gonzaga, San Francisco, and this Saint Mary’s team along with Boise State — all four of these teams rank 27 or better in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings and will all be in the big dance. The Broncos should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. They made 53.4% of their shots against the Pilots — although that was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. Santa Clara is fourth in the nation by making 38.8% of their 3-pointers — and their shooting proficiency improves to 42.1% from 3-point range when playing on the road this season, ranking the third-best in the country. The Gaels are vulnerable in this regard as they rank 190th in the nation away from home by allowing their opponents to make 34.4% of their shots from behind the arc. The Broncos are efficient inside the arc as well as they make 54.3% of their 2-pointers, ranking 34th in the nation. And Santa Clara’s interior defense is good — they rank 59th in the nation by holding their opponents to 46.9% shooting inside the arc. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They are have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they are 14-6-2 ATS in their last 22 games on a neutral court as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: After losing by just eight points at Saint Mary’s in January, the Broncos upset the Gaels when they played on February 8th by a 77-72 score as a 3-point underdog. Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities for revenge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Game of the Year with the Santa Clara Broncos (889) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (890). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-22 |
Georgia State v. Appalachian State +3.5 |
Top |
71-66 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Appalachian State Mountaineers (838) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (837) in the Semifinals of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Appalachian State (19-13) won their third game in their last four with their 73-60 victory against Georgia Southern as a 5.5-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of this tournament yesterday. Georgia State (16-10) is on an eight-game winning streak after their 65-62 win against Arkansas State as a 4-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia State was the preseason favorite to win the Sun Belt — and after a slow 6-9 start to the season with some COVID issues likely impacting those results, the Panthers are on a 10-1 run making them a favorite in many bettors eyes. But I think they are overvalued in this spot against the reigning conference champions — and the Mountaineers match up very well against them. After holding UL-Lafayette to 58 points in their last regular-season game two Fridays ago, the Panthers held the RedWolves to just 35.6% shooting yesterday in what was the best defensive effort in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. Georgia State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 5 games when playing their second game in eight days, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests. Georgia State is a dangerous team because they generate extra scoring opportunities. They lead the Sun Belt Conference by rebounding 35.7% of their missed shots. They also lead the conference by forcing turnovers in 23.5% of their opponent’s possessions. But Appalachian State presents a feisty opponent in both of these areas. The Mountaineers are third in the Sun Belt in defensive rebounding and they rank 76th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down just 25.8% of their missed shots. Appalachian State also leads the conference and is 31st in the nation by only turning the ball over in 15.5% of their possessions — and that mark improves to just a 14.3% turnover rate when playing on the road against conference opponents. The problem for Georgia State is that they need to generate these additional scoring opportunities because they can’t shoot. The Panthers rank 347th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 44.6%. They only make 30.7% of their 3-pointers, ranking 300th in the country — and their 43.7% shooting percentage inside the arc ranks 346th in the nation. Georgia State is vulnerable against teams who can make 3-pointers. They are 330th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.4% of their shots from behind the arc — and that mark rises to a rough 39.3% clip from 3-point land from their opponents when they are playing away from home, ranking 341st in the country. Appalachian State can make 3s — they rank fourth in the Sun Belt with a 34.6% mark from downtown. In their last ten games, the Mountaineers were making 35.6% of their 3-pointers — and away from Boone, they made 35.1% of their 3-pointers in conference play. They are led by senior guard Adrian Delph who scores 17.2 Points-Per-Game while nailing 39.0% of his 3-pointers. Appalachian State does not make things easy on their opponent either as they put their opponents on the free-throw line at the 11th lowest rate in the nation. The Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread win — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after playing the day before. Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road against conference opponents. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings but it will be the Mountaineers with revenge on their minds after losing the last encounter with the Panthers by a 58-49 score despite playing that game in Boone. Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year with the Appalachian State Mountaineers (838) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (837). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-22 |
Binghamton +7.5 v. New Hampshire |
|
72-69 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Binghamton Bears (306211) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (306212) in the Quarterfinals of the America East Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Binghamton (11-16) has lost three in a row as well as six of their last seven games after their 78-68 loss at Maryland-Baltimore County as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday. New Hampshire (15-12) has won three in a row and five of their last seven contests after a 64-48 upset win at UMass-Lowell as a 3.5-point underdog on Tuesday. The Wildcats host this tournament game.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Binghamton has the second-best opponent’s effective field goal percentage in the America East with a 48.7% mark. Their defensive play should keep them competitive in this game. They did allow Maryland-Baltimore County to make 52.8% of their shots earlier this week — but that was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Bearcats are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a loss to a conference rival. They are also 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread loss. They go on the road where they have a 6-8 record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. Additionally, Binghamton has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 road games as an underdog. New Hampshire played their best defensive game in their last five by holding UMass-Lowell to just 37.5% shooting in their upset win earlier this week. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They are 10-3 on their home court -- but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: New Hampshire swept the two regular-season games between these two teams after beating the Bearcats by a 66-62 score at home on February 26th. Binghamton has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 opportunities when avenging at least two straight losses to their opponent. 10* CBB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Binghamton Bears (306211) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (306212). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-22 |
UC-Davis +4.5 v. CS-Fullerton |
Top |
59-62 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cal-Davis Aggies (735) plus the points versus the Cal-State Fullerton Titans (736). THE SITUATION: Cal-Davis (12-9) has lost two of their last three games after a 68-65 loss at Long Beach State as a 5.5-point underdog on Thursday. CS-Fullerton (17-10) has lost two in a row with their 75-72 upset loss to UC-Riverside as a 2-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES PLUS THE POINTS: Cal-Davis has been resilient after setbacks as they are 19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road where they covered the point spread. The Aggies play outstanding interior defense — they are 27th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 45.6% clip inside the arc. They stay on the road where they are second in the Big West Conference by making 36.8% of their shots from behind the arc. They should have success from distance against this Titans team that allows their guests to nail 37.5% of their 3-points, the 315th highest mark on a home court in the nation. Cal-Davis is 5-4 on the road while holding their home hosts to just 41% shooting from the field. They are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games as an underdog. The Aggies are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 135-139.5 range. Furthermore, Cal-Davis is 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog — and they are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games against teams winning at least 60% of their game. CS-Fullerton allowed UC-Riverside to make 55.3% of their shots in their upset loss. The Titans have allowed their last four opponents to make at least 51.9% of their shots. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Furthermore, CS-Fullerton has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss against a Big West opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by six points or less. The Titans have a 10-2 record at home but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 135-139.5 point range. CS-Fullerton has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Cal-Davis will be looking to avenge a 74-58 loss to CS-Fullerton on January 27th. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities for avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Big West Underdog of the Year with the Cal-Davis Aggies (735) plus the points versus the Cal-State Fullerton Titans (736). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-22 |
Boise State +4 v. Colorado State |
|
68-71 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (727) plus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (728). THE SITUATION: Boise State (24-6) has won five games in a row with their 73-67 win against Nevada as a 9.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Colorado State (23-4) has won two straight games and seven of their last nine with their 66-55 upset win at Utah State as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Boise State allowed the Wolf Pack to make 50% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games and tied for their worst in their last 13 contests. They did make 50% of their shots against Nevada which was the fourth time in their last five games where they made at least half their shots. They are making 51.6% of their shots in their last five games. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 road games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread. Boise State goes back on the road where they hold their home hosts to 40.6% shooting which translates into only 59.7 Points-Per-Game. The Broncos rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Defense travels — they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Colorado State out-rebounded the Aggies by a 43 to 26 margin on Thursday in that victory — but that will be difficult to replicate against this Broncos team. Boise State ranks fourth in the nation by holding their opens to rebounding only 21.4% of their missed shots — and they lead the Mountain West Conference in by rebounding 29.4% of their missed shots. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after out-rebounding their last opponent by at least 15 boards. And while Colorado State has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Rams have a 13-1 record at home but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on their home court. Colorado State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Boise State lost the last meeting between these two teams by a 77-74 score despite being a 1-point favorite at home in that game on February 13th. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. 10* CBB Boise State-Colorado State CBS Sports Network Special with the Boise State Broncos (727) plus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (728). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-22 |
Drake v. Missouri State |
Top |
79-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri State Bears (768) minus the point(s) versus the Drake Bulldogs (767) in the Semifinals of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Missouri State (23-9) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven with their 67-58 victory against Valparaiso yesterday as a 10.5-point favorite. Drake (23-9) won their sixth straight game with their 65-52 victory against Southern Illinois as a 3-point favorite in their quarterfinals contest yesterday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Enterprise Center in Saint Louis, Missouri.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINT(S): Missouri State outlasted the Crusaders despite only making 44.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Not only are the Bears the best team in the Missouri Valley Conference in terms of Adjusted Offensive Efficiency but they rank 24th in the nation in that metric. They are 20th in the country with an effective field goal percentage of 54.9%. They might have the two best players in the conference in wing Isiaih Mosley and 6’9 big man Gaige Prim. Together, this inside-out pair combine to average 36.3 points per game. The Bears are 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a point spread loss. Missouri State has not covered the point spread in two straight games and four of their last five contest. The Bears have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Missouri State has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — including covering the point spread in eight of these last ten circumstances. This is a fundamentally sound team that ranks 24th in the nation in turnover rate on offense while limiting their opponents to rebounding just 23.6% of their missed shots, ranking 34th in the nation. On the road, they are 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 16th in the nation respectively by nailing 38.1% of their 3-pointers and 54.8% of their shots inside the arc when playing away from home. They also lead the conference by holding their opponents to 47.1% shooting inside the arc — and they rank 15th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just a 45.3% mark with their 2-point shots. These characteristics have helped the Bears cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games when favored. The Tigers are vulnerable against teams who can make 3s — but the Bulldogs are last in the Missouri Valley Conference by making only 30.8% of their 3-pointers. Drake has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover them in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. The Bulldogs have seen their last two games combine for 122 or fewer points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing two straight games where no more than 125 combined points were scored. Drake is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. They are also 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Missouri State swept the Bulldogs in their two meetings this season after beating them on the road by a 66-62 score as a 3.5-point underdog on February 9th. Drake has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss this season — and they have failed all 3 opportunities to avenge an upset loss this year. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year with the Missouri State Bears (768) minus the point(s) versus the Drake Bulldogs (767). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-22 |
Villanova v. Butler +8.5 |
Top |
78-59 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Butler Bulldogs (606) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (605). THE SITUATION: Butler (13-17) lost their fourth game in a row with their 64-56 loss at Marquette as an 8.5-point underdog last Saturday. Villanova (22-7) won their sixth game in their last seven with a 76-74 victory against Providence as a 10.5-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: It is Senior Day for Butler this afternoon -- and hosting the Wildcats gives them an opportunity to end their regular season on a high note before the Big East Tournament starts next week. Head coach LaVall Jordan’s team is better than their record with eight of their 13 losses in conference play being by seven points or less. They should play well this afternoon. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Butler has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after losing at least three in a row. They return home where they are 9-6 this season — but they have impressive victories against Marquette, Creighton, and Oklahoma. They hold their opponents to just 41.8% shooting which translates into 64.5 Points-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 straight games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Villanova may not be completely dialed-in for this game with zero chance to claim the Big East regular-season title. They are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. And while they have won 15 of their last 18 games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least 12 of their last 15 contests. They are just 10-6 away from home this season where they boast a 12-1 record. They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Butler will have extra motivation to redeem themselves from an 82-42 loss at Villanova on January 16th in what was their worst game of the season. They shot 30.8% from the field in what was their worst shooting effort of the season. They also allowed the Wildcats to make 59.6% of their shots which included them nailing 12 of their 19 shots (63.2%) from behind the arc. History is not likely to repeat itself since Villanova makes 41.3% of their 3s at home but sees that number plummet to a 33.1% clip on the road, ranking 185th in the nation. Butler has held their opponents to just a 29% clip from 3-point range since that embarrassing loss — and they hold their guests to just 28.1% shooting from behind the arc when playing at home, ranking 24th best in the country. These are two of the slowest-paced teams in the nation with Villanova averaging 63.0 possessions per game (345th slowest in the nation) and Butler just behind them at 63.5 possessions per game (341st in the nation). Finally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered 11 of their last 14 home games when avenging a loss on the road and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Big East Underdog of the Year with the Butler Bulldogs (606) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (605). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-04-22 |
Morehead State +4.5 v. Belmont |
Top |
53-51 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Morehead State Eagles (861) plus the points versus the Belmont Bruins (862) in the Semifinals of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Morehead State (22-10) has won two of their last three games after their 73-56 win as an 8-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of this tournament yesterday. Belmont (24-6) has won 11 of their last 12 games with their 87-67 victory against Tennessee State as a 16-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Ford Center in Evansville, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles advanced in this tournament yesterday despite making only 39.1% of their shots in what was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Morehead State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a win by 15 or more points. And while they have only covered the point spread twice in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Eagles play stout defense which keeps them in this game. They rank second in the Ohio Valley Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they top the conference in that metric when playing away from home. They are led by 6’10 sophomore John Broome who is sixth in the nation in block rate. Facing Belmont is always a challenge since they lead the nation by making 61.4% of their shots inside the arc. Morehead State leads the Ohio Valley with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.7% when playing away from home. Broome helps them play very tough interior defense: they rank 28th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 45.7% shooting percentage inside the arc — and they led the conference with their opponents only making 43.8% of their 2-pointers. In their two meetings this season, the Bruins did not shoot better than 45.9% inside the arc in either game — and they converted only 31 of these 72 shots for an underwhelming 43.1% mark with their 2-pointers. On the other end of the court, Morehead State is dangerous from 3-point land with four players in their rotation who all nail at least 35% of their shots from behind the arc. They are second in the conference with a 35.0% shooting percentage from distance. The Bruins’ perimeter defense is an area of vulnerability as they allow their opponents to make 34.8% of their shots in conference play, ranking 10th in the Ohio Valley. Belmont played their best defensive game in their last five by holding Tennessee State to just 37.5% shooting. And their 56.2% field goal percentage was their best mark in their last four games and second-best in their last eight contests. But the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit victory against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Belmont can struggle against opponents who are athletic and offer length to combat their movement and shooting on offense. They lack a Plan B if their interior shots are not falling. They only make 31.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home, ranking 246th in the nation. And they only pull down 23.1% of their missed shots away from home, ranking 310th in the country. They do force turnovers in 21.0% of their opponent's possessions, the 50th best mark in the country — but this will be the third time the Eagles have faced their pressure. In their 83-74 victory at home against the Bruins on January 20th, Morehead State only turned the ball over seven times representing just 10.6% of their possessions. They did turn the ball over 16 times in the rematch which helps explain why Belmont was able to eke out a 48-47 victory at home as a 9-point favorite. The Bruins did not cover the point spread in their four meetings against Morehead State and Murray State — the two most athletic teams in the conference. Belmont has failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games away from home after 15 games into the season against teams winning 60-80% of their games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Morehead State had a 39-29 lead at the 14:25 minute mark of the second half in their meeting last month before getting outscored in Nashville by a 19-8 rock fight to close out that game. They should be motivated to redeem themselves from that setback — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games when avenging a loss on the road. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court — and the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year with the Morehead State Eagles (861) plus the points versus the Belmont Bruins (862). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-04-22 |
Southern Illinois +3.5 v. Drake |
|
52-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Southern Illinois Salukis (857) plus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (858) in the Quarterfinals of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Southern Illinois (16-14) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 62-60 loss at Drake as a 7-point underdog on Saturday. Drake (22-9) won their seventh-straight game with their victory against the Salukis. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Enterprise Center in Saint Louis, Missouri.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SALUKIS PLUS THE POINTS: Southern Illinois should respond to their narrow loss to the Bulldogs with a strong effort. Southern Illinois is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss to a Missouri Valley Conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. The Salukis play hard-nosed defense while playing at a snail’s pace — and they are dangerous with their 3-point shooting. The 62.5 possessions per game in their contests this season is the 350th fewest in the nation — and getting the points in lower-scoring games does offer increased value. Southern Illinois ranks third in the Missouri Valley in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 23rd in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down just 23.0% of their missed shots. Their 36.0% shooting percentage from 3-point range is 64th best in the country — and they lead the conference by nailing 38.3% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home in conference play. The Bulldogs are seventh in the conference by allowing their opponents to shoot 35.1% from 3-point range — and they rank 297th in the nation with their opponents making 36.9% of their 3-pointers when they are playing away from home. The Salukis are dangerous dogs who are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court as an underdog. They are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Drake may be caught looking ahead to a possible semifinals showdown with Missouri State rather than put all their attention on a conference opponent they have defeated twice this season. But the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up win — and they are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a point spread loss. Drake is solid and fundamentally sound with a good point guard in Roman Penn. This makes them good underdogs but unreliable favorites — they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when laying the points. They are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. The Bulldogs give away too many points as they are last in the Missouri Valley in putting their opponents on the free-throw line — and they rank 324th in the country in putting opponents on the line when playing away from home. Drake does not hit 3s either — they only hit 29.2% of their 3-pointers when playing on the road against conference opponents. Furthermore, Drake is 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on a neutral court — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on a neutral court when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Southern Illinois lost both their games to the Bulldogs by three combined points — so they will be chippy and confident to finally defeat this team. The Salukis have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when looking to avenge at least two straight losses to their opponent. Don’t be surprised if the Salukis pull the upset — but please take the points for some insurance in what should be another close game between these two teams. 10* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but take the points) Special with the Southern Illinois Salukis (857) plus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (858). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-04-22 |
The Citadel +5.5 v. East Tennessee State |
|
84-76 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing The Citadel Bulldogs (847) plus the points versus the East Tennessee State Buccaneers (848) in the first round of the Southern Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: The Citadel (12-17) limps into the conference tournament having lost four of their last five games after their 94-59 loss to Furman as a 9-point underdog on Saturday. East Tennessee State (15-16) has won two of their last three games after a 73-69 upset victory at UNC-Greensboro as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Harrah’s Cherokee Center in Asheville, North Carolina.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: The best thing for The Citadel is that they can quickly get the bad taste out of their mouth from their 35-point loss to Furman by making noise in the conference tournament. They allowed the Paladins to make 57.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. The Citadel only made 36.1% of their shots themselves which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Head coach Duggar Baucom should get a better performance from his team this afternoon. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss to a Southern Conference rival. Additionally, The Citadel has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a loss by 20 or more points. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. If you want to invest in a team that has a player that can put his teammates on his back, then you will like The Citadel with Hayden Brown. The senior is scoring 18.5 Points-Per-Game while pulling down 9.4 Rebounds-Per-Game — and he makes 59.4% of his shots inside the arc. Brown helps the Bulldogs to make 51.9% of their 2-pointers which ranks inside the top-100 in the country — and the thin Buccaneers front court allows their opponents to make 55.0% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 339th in the country. East Tennessee State has allowed their conference opponents to make 57.3% of their 2-pointers which is last in the Southern Conference. Brown’s shooting inside the arc is the key that opens up “Duggar Ball” which is The Citadel playing at a frenetic pace while launching tons of 3s. The Bulldogs’ games average 71.0 possessions per game, ranking 31st most in the nation. The Citadel takes 50.4% of their shots from behind the arc, the fourth-most in the country — and made 3-pointers account for 42.4% of their points which is the sixth-highest percentage in the nation. East Tennessee State will be accommodated this approach — they rank 352nd in the country with their opponents taking 47.0% of their shots from 3-point range, and these opponents are generating 38.6% of their points from made 3s, the 17th highest clip in the nation. The Citadel made 36.1% of their 3-pointers in conference play — but what is intriguing about this contest is that they led the Southern Conference by nailing 40.2% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home. East Tennessee State ranks ninth in the Southern Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they allowed their conference opponents to make 35.9% of their 3-pointers when they were playing away from home, the sixth-highest mark in the conference. The Buccaneers made 49.0% of their shots on Sunday against the Spartans which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But East Tennessee State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after an upset win on the road as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. And in their last 17 games when playing in just their second game in seven days, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of these contests. The Buccaneers are just 7-10 away from home while getting outscored by -5.1 Points-Per-Game.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season contests - but The Citadel will have revenge on their minds after losing 77-67 in the last meeting on February 19th. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court — and East Tennessee State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. 10* CBB Friday Afternoon Matinee with The Citadel Bulldogs (847) plus the points versus the East Tennessee State Buccaneers (848). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-03-22 |
Central Arkansas v. Jacksonville -9.5 |
Top |
69-79 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Dolphins (306190) minus the points versus the Central Arkansas Bears (306189) in the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (19-9) had their five-game winning streak snapped with a 76-69 loss at the Florida Gulf Coast as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Central Arkansas (11-19) has won two of their last three games with their 74-73 win in a pick ‘em contest against Stetson in the opening round of this tournament on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville should respond with a stronger effort tonight as they have covered the pint spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. The Dolphins are a strong defensive team that ranks 97th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 37th in the nation in opponent’s effective field goal percentage fueled by a stingy perimeter defense that limits their opponents to 28.9% shooting from behind the arc, the tenth best mark in the country. They also rank 30th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding just 23.4% of their missed shots. They return home where they are a perfect 14-0 with a net point differential of +20.3 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 36.5% shooting at home which is translating into only 54.1 PPG. The concern with this Jacksonville team is their shooting — but they are much better at home where they make 49.9% of their shots which is generating 74.4 PPG. The Dolphins are second in the Atlantic Sun by nailing 38.4% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play when at home. Jacksonville also does a great job of crashing the glass — they rank 34th in the nation by rebounding 33.6% of their missed shots which that mark rising to a conference-best 34.6% against Atlantic Sun foes. The Dolphins are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 130s. Furthermore, Jacksonville is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games when favored. Central Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by six points or less. Now they go on the road where they are 3-13 this season with a -18.2 PPG net point differential. The Purple Bears are one of the worst defensive teams in the nation. They rank 337th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while allowing their opponents to make 55.9% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 348th in the nation. Inexplicably, head coach Anthony Boone has them play at the 20th fastest pace in the nation which is resulting in an average of 72.4 possessions per game, the 12th most in the country. Yet this team does not force turnovers, or crash the glass, or shoot (or make) a bunch of 3s — so the increased pace is not accentuating the things they try to do well. Central Arkansas is 338th in the nation by making only 29.6% of their missed shots. They are 344th in the nation run getting to the free-throw line. The Dolphins should get plenty of fast-break scoring chances in transition which is another reason why I am not as worried about their shooting tonight. Jacksonville outrebounds their opponents by +7.6 Rebounds-Per-Game — and the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games against opponents who out-rebound their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG. Central Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 130s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Bears are looking to avenge a 79-59 loss at Jacksonville as an 11.5-point underdog on January 29th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by 20 or more points. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Game of the Year with the Jacksonville Dolphins (306190) minus the points versus the Central Arkansas Bears (306189). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-02-22 |
Auburn v. Mississippi State +4 |
|
81-68 |
Loss |
-104 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (712) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (711). THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (17-12) has won three of their last four games after their 74-69 win against Vanderbilt as a 7-point favorite on Saturday. Auburn (25-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 67-62 loss at Tennessee as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State needs a victory tonight to bolster their NCAA Tournament resume — I expect a strong effort. They allowed the Commodores to make 46.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Bulldogs have not covered the point spread in their last three games — but they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 51 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. The Bulldogs only made 1 of 6 shots from behind the arc on Saturday — and that came on the heels of them going 0-14 from 3-point range in their previous game at South Carolina. But Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not making at least 20% of their 3-point attempts in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after not making at least 20% of their shots from behind the arc in two straight games. This team only makes 30.2% of their 3-pointers on the season — but they are much better at home with a 35.2% clip from distance. What the Bulldogs do well is crash the glass and get to the line — and these strengths should expose weaknesses of this Tigers’ team. Mississippi State gets to the free-throw line at the 18th best rate in the nation — and Auburn ranks 301st in the country in putting their opponents on the line. The Bulldogs are 31st in the nation by pulling down 33.8% of their missed shots — and that mark improves to a 36.4% slip when playing at home, ranking 21st in the country. The Tigers allow their home hosts to rebound 32.5% of their missed shots, ranking 296th in the nation. Mississippi State is 14-2 at home with signature wins against Alabama and Arkansas. They have a +13.5 net point differential at home where they hold their opponents to 40.9% shooting which translates into only 62.2 Points-Per-Game — and they nail 49.9% of their shots at home. The Bulldogs are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on the road. Auburn can’t shoot 3s either — they rank 276th in the nation with a 31.8% clip from behind the arc which drops to a 29.4% mark when playing on the road. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after a point spread loss. They are 10-4 on the road — but they only make 42.7% of their shots in those games which lowers their season 79.1 PPG mark by -3.2 PPG. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games with the Total set in the 130s. Furthermore, Auburn has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games when favored or a pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games when favored by up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams this season. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Mississippi State is 27-13-2 ATS in their last 42 games at home as an underdog. 10* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (712) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (711). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-02-22 |
Old Dominion v. Louisiana Tech -8 |
Top |
54-67 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (672) minus the points versus the Old Dominion Monarchs (671). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (20-8) had won four of five games before their 56-49 loss at North Texas as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Old Dominion (12-17) won their second-straight game with their 83-63 win against Florida International as an 8-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Louisiana Tech should respond with a strong effort tonight. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 50 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last contest. And while the Bulldogs have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Louisiana Tech ranks second in Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They lead the conference by holding their opponents to just 45.0% shooting inside the arc. It will be difficult for the Monarchs to score tonight as they only hit 30.1% of their shots from behind the arc, the 320th worst mark in the nation. The Bulldogs return home where they are 12-3 this season with a net point differential of +14.9 Points-Per-Game. Louisiana Tech holds their guests to just 39.5% shooting which translates into 65.8 PPG. They also make 47.4% of their shots at home which is generating 80.7 PPG. This team ranks 62nd in the nation by making 55.1% of their shots inside the arc — and this proficiency should help them pull away in this game. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games with the Total set in the 130s. Louisiana Tech is also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Old Dominion comes off one of their best games of the season where they nailed 57.4% of their shots while holding the Golden Panthers to just 40% shooting. But the Monarchs have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a game where they shot at least 57% from the field while holding their opponent to no higher than a 43% field goal percentage. Furthermore, Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home by 20 or more points. Additionally, the Monarchs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two of their last three games. And while this is their third game since Thursday, Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing their third game in seven days. The Monarchs can’t shoot — they rank 286th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 47.5%. Now after playing their last two games at home, Old Dominion goes back on the road where their effective field goal percentage drops to 44.9%, ranking 306th in the nation. The Monarchs are just 3-13 away from home while making only 41% of their shots which is resulting in 61.2 PPG. Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road against teams winning at least 60% of their games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams this season. Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record. 25* CBB Conference USA Game of the Year with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (672) minus the points versus the Old Dominion Monarchs (671). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-01-22 |
Missouri v. South Carolina -6.5 |
|
69-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (618) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (617). THE SITUATION: South Carolina (17-11) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 90-71 loss at Alabama as an 11-point underdog on Saturday. Missouri (10-19) has lost five games in a row with their 75-55 loss at LSU as a 13.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GAMECOCKS MINUS THE POINTS: South Carolina allowed the Crimson Tide to make 47.5% of their shots in what was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. South Carolina has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. They return home where they are 11-4 this season. They should play better on defense tonight as they hold their guests to just 41.5% shooting which results in 68.3 Points-Per-Game. The weakness of Frank Martin’s team is their shooting — but while they only make 44.5% of their shots at home, they have been shooting better as of late with a 47.5% clip in their last five games. But what the Gamecocks do well is create more scoring opportunities for themselves to get their shots to fall. South Carolina is 22nd in the nation by pulling down 34.4% of their missed shots — and they rank 33rd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.8% of their opponent’s possessions. These characteristics should give them a big edge against the Tigers who are vulnerable in both these areas. Missouri allows their opponents to pull down 31.0% of their missed shots, ranking 289th in the nation. Mizzou also turns the ball over in 21.4% of their possessions, ranking 328th in the country. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. Missouri has fled to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road after a point spread loss. The Tigers’ loss in Baton Rouge came on the heels of an 80-61 loss at home to Tennessee — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 75 points in two straight games. They stay on the road where they are just 3-11 with a -14.9 net point differential. Missouri allows their home hosts to make 47.6% of their shots — an ominous sign when facing the Gamecocks team. They also only make 40.2% of their shots on the road which results in just 59.7 PPG. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 road games as an underdog. Missouri has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and South Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored. 10* CBB Missouri-South Carolina ESPNU Special with the South Carolina Gamecocks (618) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (617). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-28-22 |
College of Charleston +5.5 v. Hofstra |
Top |
84-89 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the College of Charleston Cougars (863) plus the points versus the Hofstra Pride (864). THE SITUATION: Charleston (16-13) had their two-game winning streak snapped with an 80-79 loss at Drexel as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Hofstra (20-10) has won seven of their last eight games with their 83-67 victory against William & Mary as an 18-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: Charleston should respond with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games after a loss. And while this is the Cougars’ fourth straight game on the road, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 road games after playing at least two straight games on the road. Head coach Pat Kelsey’s team plays at the second-highest pace in the nation. They also rank 12th in the nation by pulling down 35.3% of their missed shots — and offensive rebounding travels. Charleston is scoring 80.2 Points-Per-Game in their last five games on 48.7% shooting. They have a 7-7 record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. Charleston has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last games against teams with a winning record. Hofstra has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games after a straight-up win at home against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games at home after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Pride have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing with one day of rest. Hofstra has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They are now 11-2 at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games at home. Furthermore, the Pride have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games when the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored in all situations.
FINAL TAKE: The College of Charleston will be looking to avenge a 76-73 loss at Hofstra as a 2-point underdog on January 27th. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when motivated with revenge. 25* CBB Underdog of the Month with the College of Charleston Cougars (863) plus the points versus the Hofstra Pride (864). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-22 |
Louisville v. Wake Forest -8.5 |
Top |
77-99 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (750) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (749). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (21-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 80-69 upset loss at Clemson as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday. Louisville (12-15) has lost eight of their last nine games after their 70-63 loss at North Carolina as a 9.5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DEMON DEACONS MINUS THE POINTS: Wake Forest allowed the Tigers to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games and the third-highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. The Demon Deacons only made 41.0% of their shots as well which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 16 games. Wake Forest should play better tonight — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Demon Deacons rank second in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are second in the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.0%. They return home where they have a 14-2 record with a +15.0 net point differential. Wake Forest holds their guests to just a 38.6% field goal percentage which is resulting in 67.2 Points-Per-Game. The Demon Deacons are nailing 49.0% of their shots on their home court which is generating 82.2 PPG. Wake Forest is usually a very good shooting team — they rank 16th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 55.5% fueled by a 57.9% shooting clip inside the arc, ranking fourth-best in the country. The Cardinals are vulnerable with their interior defense as they rank ninth in the ACC by allowing their opponents to make 51.6% of their 2-pointers. Louisville ranks 12th in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Wake Forest can get into trouble against teams that force turnovers — the Deacons rank second-to-last in the ACC with a 19.9% turnover rate. But the Cardinals also rank second-to-last in the conference by forcing turnovers in only 14.2% of their opponent’s possessions. Wake Forest has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 140s. The Demon Deacons have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Louisville continues their lost season that saw the parting of ways with head coach Chris Mack midseason. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. And while the Cardinals have covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. They stay on the road where they are just 4-8 this season. They are making only 40.3% of their shots away from home which is resulting in just 64.6 PPG. Louisville is just eleventh in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They only make 32.1% of their 3-pointers, ranking 12th in the conference — and their 67.1% free throw rate that is last in the ACC will not help them cover the point spread. The Cardinals are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road as an underdog. They are also just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 140s, Louisville has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest will be looking to avenge a 73-69 loss to the Cardinals on December 29th. The Demon Deacons have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 opportunities for revenge against their opponent. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (750) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (749). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-22 |
Binghamton +8 v. New Hampshire |
Top |
62-66 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Binghamton Bearcats (1001) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (1002). THE SITUATION: Binghamton (11-14) has lost four of their last five games after a 66-49 loss to Vermont as a 15-point underdog on Wednesday. New Hampshire (13-12) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 83-55 win against the New Jersey Institute of Technology as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Binghamton only made 30.5% of their shots against the Catamounts on Wednesday in what was the worst shooting effort of the season. They should play better this afternoon as they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. Binghamton has also covered the point spread in 8 straight-road games after a straight-up loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a point spread loss. Their solid play on the defensive end of the court should keep them competitive in this game. The Bearcats are third in the America East Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to just a 32.9% shooting clip from behind the arc which is best in the conference — and they also lead the America East with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.2%. They go back on the road where they are 6-6 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games. Additionally, Binghamton has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. New Hampshire made 55.6% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the best shooting effort of the season — so I do expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win against a conference opponent. New Hampshire has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. The Bearcats can struggle on defense as they rank only eighth in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are 9-3 at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: New Hampshire won the first meeting between these two teams on February 12th by a 69-60 score in a pick ‘em match-up — but the Bearcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 opportunities this season to avenge a loss at home. 25* CBB America East Underdog of the Year with the Binghamton Bearcats (1001) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (1002). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-22 |
Texas-Arlington v. South Alabama -7.5 |
Top |
52-62 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the South Alabama Jaguars (892) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (891). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (18-10) has lost two games in a row after their 55-52 upset loss to Texas State as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday. UT-Arlington (11-16) has lost two in a row and five of their last seven after their 59-53 loss at Troy as a 4.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINTS: South Alabama has only scored 103 points in their last two games — but they should find the form that has tagged ranked second in the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and tops in the conference with a 51.9% effective field goal percentage against the Mavericks. UT-Arlington ranks 11th in the Sun Belt Conference in opponent’s effective field goal percentage — and they rank 227th in that metric when playing away from home with opponent’s posting an effective field goal percentage of 52.3%. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 65 points in two straight games. But they have also covered the point spread in 9 straight games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last contest. South Alabama has played their last two games Under the Total — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after playing at least two straight Unders. They stay at home where they are 8-3 this season with a +18.9 net points differential. The Jaguars hold their guests to just 57.9 Points-Per-Game. They rank 32nd on their home court with an effective field goal percentage of 56.0% while ranking in the top-74 in the nation in both 3-point shooting and shooting inside the arc. South Alabama has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored. The Jaguars have also covered the pint spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. South Alabama ranks second in the Sun Belt with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.5% — this is a balanced team on both ends of the court. UT-Arlington held the Trojans to host 36.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 14 games. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. UT-Arlington has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points. The Mavericks have played their last two games Under the Total by only allowing 58 and 59 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after playing two straight Unders and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. They stay on the road where they are just 3-12 this season with a -8.6 net point differential. They only make 40.1% of their shots on the road which results in only 63.5 PPG. UT-Arlington struggles with shooting the basketball — they rank 321st in the nation in effective field goal percentage. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: South Alabama will be looking to avenge an 89-87 upset loss to the Mavericks on December 30th as a 2.5-point favorite. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 75 points. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month with the South Alabama Jaguars (892) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (891). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-22 |
Louisiana-Monroe +3.5 v. Georgia Southern |
|
75-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UL-Monroe Warhawks (869) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (870). THE SITUATION: UL-Monroe (13-16) has lost four games in a row after their 82-70 loss at Georgia State as a 12-point underdog on Wednesday. Georgia Southern (11-15) has lost six games in a row with their 82-69 loss to Louisiana-Lafayette as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: UL-Monroe allowed the Panthers to make 47.0% of their shots which was the highest opponent's field goal percentage in their last four games. The Warhawks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up loss. UL-Monroe has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after losing two in a row to Sun Belt rivals — and they have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 63 road games after losing at least two in a row to conference opponents. The Warhawks stay on the road where they are 6-9 this season — and they are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 road games. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games as an underdog — and they are 4-1-1 ATS In their last 6 games as an underdog overall. Georgia Southern made 44.8% of their shots against the Ragin’ Cajuns in what was the best shooting effort in their last six games. But the Eagles are still only making 38.8% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in only 60.0 Points-Per-Game. They rank 12th in the Sun Belt in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Georgia Southern also turns the ball over in 22.0% of their possessions, ranking 341st in the nation — so they can’t afford to shoot so poorly if they are not even getting to a shot before coughing the ball up. UL-Monroe forces turnovers in 19.5% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 116th in the nation. Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss to a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing two games in a row. And in their last 7 games when playing with only one day of rest, they have failed to cover the point spread 6 times. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored. And in their last 5 games against losing teams, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread all 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: UL-Monroe will be motivated to avenge a 50-45 upset loss at home to Georgia Southern where they were a 1-point home favorite. The Warhawks have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite to their opponent. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the UL-Monroe Warhawks (869) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (870). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-22 |
Eastern Washington +6.5 v. Northern Colorado |
|
85-76 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Eastern Washington Eagles (791) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (792). THE SITUATION: Eastern Washington (14-13) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in an 83-80 upset loss at Idaho as a 4.5-point favorite. Northern Colorado (16-12) has won six of their last seven contests with their 77-70 win against Idaho State as a 14-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Eastern Washington played their worst defensive game in their last nine contests by allowing the Vandals to make 54.4% of their shots. But the Eagles are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a point spread setback. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a narrow loss by three points or less. Eastern Washington has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games after winning two of their last three games. They are hitting 48.5% of their shots in their last five games. They stay on the road where they are 7-10 this season — but they are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games on the road. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Eastern Washington has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games as an underdog getting up to six points. Northern Colorado’s victory against Idaho State finished above the 144 point total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after playing an Over in their last game. The Bears have scored 83 and 77 points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 75 points in each of their last two games. They are 8-3 at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games when favored. And in their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road, Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Eastern Washington will be motivated to avenge an 87-83 loss at home to Northern Colorado as a 2-point home underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 20* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Eastern Washington Eagles (791) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (792). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-22 |
North Carolina-Asheville +6 v. Gardner-Webb |
Top |
59-60 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306143) plus the points versus the Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (306144). THE SITUATION: UNC-Asheville (15-12) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in an 84-79 loss to Winthrop as a 2-point underdog. Gardner-Webb (15-11) has won seven of their last eight games with their 76-68 victory at Presbyterian as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: UNC-Asheville allowed Winthrop to nail 50.9% of their shots over the weekend in what was the worst defensive effort in their last ten games. Winthrop made 12 of their 30 shots (40%) from behind the arc which was a surprise when considering that the Bulldogs rank sixth in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 28.5% clip from 3-point range this season. UNC-Asheville is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a point spread loss. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. And while this is just their second game since Thursday of last week, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing their second game in seven days. On the positive side, UNC-Asheville made at least 50% of their shots for their third straight game with their 53.2% clip against the Eagles over the weekend. In their last five games, the Bulldogs are making 48.3% of their shots which has bumped up their scoring average +5.3 Points-Per-Game to a 79.8 PPG mark over that span. This team also ranks 32nd in the nation in getting to the free-throw line where they then make 73.9% of their freebies, ranking in the top-100 in the nation. The Runnin’ Bulldogs rank 278th in the nation in putting opponents on the free-throw line. UNC-Asheville goes on the road where they are 7-6 this season. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. They are also 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Gardner-Webb has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning at least three of their last four games. The Runnin’ Bulldogs are no slouches defending the 3-point shot either — they rank seventh in the nation in opponent’s field goal percentage behind the arc. UNC-Asheville is vulnerable to teams who crash the glass — but Gardner Webb ranks only seventh in the conference in offensive rebounding when playing at home. The Runnin’ Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored. Gardner Webb has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 135 to 139.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: UNC-Asheville will be motivated to avenge a 61-55 upset loss at home to the Runnin’ Bulldogs as a 1.5-point favorite on January 27th. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* CBB Big South Game of the Month with the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306143) plus the points versus the Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (306144). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-22 |
San Diego State +2.5 v. Boise State |
Top |
57-58 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (645) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (646). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (17-6) won their fifth straight game with a 61-44 victory at Fresno State as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Boise State (21-6) has won four of their last five games with their 68-57 win against Utah State as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: After a narrow one-point loss at Colorado State, San Diego State has gotten on a roll by winning their last four games by double-digits. A discovered scoring touch has triggered the upsurge in play for head coach Brian Dutcher’s team. They are shooting 49.0% from the field in their last five games. They had shot 62.5% and 51.7% from the field in their previous two games before posting a 47.9% field goal percentage in their win against the Bulldogs. The Aztecs should continue their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a win on the road against a Mountain West Conference rival. San Diego State leads the Mountain West in offensive rebounding rate — and they are very tough to beat if they are hitting their shots. This Aztecs team boasts the top-ranked defensive in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in the nation — and this defense travels. San Diego State holds their home hosts to just a 39.7% field goal percentage which translates into only 60.7 Points-Per-Game — and they rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 40 road games with the Total set in the 120s. San Diego State has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Boise State played their best defensive game in their last eight contests by holding the Aggies to just 43.4% shooting on Saturday. But the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning two games in a row after conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning four of their last five contests. Boise State’s defense has taken a step back as of late — they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.0% of their shots. This is concerning because this Broncos team cannot shoot. Boise State ranks 349th in the country by making only 64.5% of their free throws — a troubling characteristic for a team expected to be in a close game. And they only make 32.4% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on their home court, ranking 246th in the nation. One of the power rankings systems I use lists the Broncos as the 28th best team in the nation — but those analytics drop them to 60th in the country when exclusively evaluating teams playing on their home court. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games. The Broncos lack depth with head coach Leon Rice relying mostly on seven players — but that seventh player, Name Smith, is questionable tonight with an undisclosed injury.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams met on January 22nd with Boise State winning by a 42-37 score as a 4.5-point road underdog. The Aztecs were rusty coming off a two-week hiatus due to COVID outbreaks — and they only shot 28.1% from the field while missing 15 of their 19 shots from behind the arc. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Tuesday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the San Diego State Aztecs (645) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-21-22 |
Maryland-Eastern Shore +6 v. North Carolina Central |
Top |
79-66 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks (306109) plus the points versus the North Carolina-Central Eagles (306110). THE SITUATION: Maryland-Eastern Shore (8-13) has lost three games in a row after their 70-63 loss at South Carolina State as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. North Carolina-Central (15-11) has won four games in a row with their 84-79 win against Delaware State as a 12-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Maryland-Eastern Shore only made 37.6% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. The Hawks should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road. And while they have lost four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing four or five of their last six contests. After being one of ten Division I programs that did not play a single game last season because of the COVID pandemic, many college basketball prognosticators projected Maryland-Eastern Shore to be the worst team in the country this season. Not so — this group beat Fordham in double-overtime earlier this season. They lost by just nine points at Connecticut. Granted, this is a team that is still just 3-7 in conference play — but head coach Jason Crafton has done a fine job with his squad. And his team does some things that make them intriguing road warriors. For starters, they are one of the best teams in the nation in forcing turnovers. The Hawks rank 15th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.3% of their opponent’s possessions. In Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference play, they lead the league by forcing turnovers in 26.3% of their opponents' possessions. The Eagles are very vulnerable in this department — they rank 238th in the nation by turning the ball over in 23.8% of their opponent’s possessions. In conference play, North Carolina-Central turns the ball over 24.3% of the time. This defensive pressure helps Maryland-Eastern Shore boast the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in conference play using one of the analytics formulas I track — and they are second in the MEAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road using those metrics. The Hawks also do a couple of things that make them dangerous. They are third in the conference by rebounding 31.7% of their missed shots when playing on the road. They also nail 36% of their 3-point shots on the road in conference play. Maryland-Eastern Shore has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road. And while this is their second game since last Monday, the Hawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games when playing second games in seven days. Furthermore, Maryland-Eastern Shore is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. North Carolina-Central has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Eagles are considered one of the favorites to win the MEAC despite COVID limiting them to just 13 practices all season last year. The Eagles are not a great defensive team by conference standards. They rank seventh in the MEAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that ranking remains seventh of the eight teams in the conference in that m metric when playing at home. North Carolina-Central has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Eagles have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: North Carolina-Central won the first meeting between these two teams by a 75-63 score as a 3-point favorite on the road. The Eagles made 11 of their 25 shots (44%) from behind the arc which is a number they are not likely to replicate since they rank 276th in the nation by making only 31.6% of their 3-point shots. Tellingly, North Carolina-Central committed 18 turnovers in that game while turning the ball over in 27.3% of their possessions against the Hawks’ pressure. Maryland-Eastern Shore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks (306109) plus the points versus the North Carolina-Central Eagles (306110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-22 |
Mississippi State v. Missouri +4.5 |
|
58-56 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (860) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (859). THE SITUATION: Missouri (10-16) has lost three of their last four games after a 68-49 loss at Mississippi State as a 10.5-point underdog on Friday. Mississippi State (15-11) snapped a four-game losing streak with the win.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Missouri only made 31.4% of their shots on Friday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 11 games. The Tigers have not scored more than 57 points in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not scoring more than 65 points in two straight games. Missouri has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a double-digit loss on the road. Missouri has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. They return home where they are 7-6 — but they did upset Alabama. They hold their guests to just 41.1% shooting. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. Missouri has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games as an underdog getting up to six points. Mississippi State played their best defensive game in their last 24 contests by holding the Tigers to just 31.4% shooting. But the Bulldogs are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a point spread loss. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after covering the point spread in at least two games in a row. This rematch is on the road where they are 0-7 in true road games this season while ranking 306th in the nation in effective field goal percentage with a 45.1% mark. Mississippi State makes only 25.4% of their 3-pointers when playing in a hostile environment, ranking 335th in the nation. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Missouri missed 14 of their 17 shots from behind the arc on Friday — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to make at least 20% of their shots from 3-point range in their last contest. 10* CBB Sunday Late Show Bailout with the Missouri Tigers (860) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (859). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-22 |
East Carolina v. UCF -9 |
Top |
66-69 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Central Florida Knights (832) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (831). THE SITUATION: Central Florida (15-9) looks to rebound from a 70-52 loss at Houston on Thursday as a 13.5-point underdog. East Carolina (13-12) has won two of their last three games with their 65-57 victory at South Florida as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Central Florida could not get anything going on the offensive end of the court against the Cougars. Their 28.3% field goal percentage in that game was the lowest of the season. Johnny Dawkins’ team should shoot much better this afternoon. Central Florida has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not making at least 33% of their shots in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not scoring at least 55 points in their last game. Additionally, the Knights have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a double-digit loss. Central Florida has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss. And while this is the Knights’ third game since Monday this week, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when playing their third game in seven days. They return home where they are 11-3 this season. Dawkins’ team thrives on the defensive end of the court where they hold their guests to just a 40.9% field goal percentage which results in only 61.9 Points-Per-Game. UCF makes a modest 45.2% of their shots at home — so they should make more baskets than they did against the Cougars. But what makes this Knights’ team so dangerous is that they do a good job in generating additional scoring opportunities. Central Florida pulls down 31.6% of their missed shots, ranking 68th in the nation. The Knights also lead the American Athletic Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.8% of their opponent’s possessions — and that turnover rate improves to a 22.7% clip when playing at home. The Pirates are loose with the basketball — they rank seventh in the conference by turning the ball over in 19.9% of their possessions. Central Florida has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. East Carolina held South Florida to just 34.4% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 23 games. The Pirates had lost six in a row before winning two of their last three — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after losing four or five of their last six games. And while East Carolina has not scored more than 30 points in the first half in eight straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after not scoring more than 30 points in the first half in at least two straight games. They stay on the road where they are just 3-8 this season. The Pirates struggle to score -- and it starts with their shooting inside the arc where they rank 322nd in the nation by making only 45.7% of their 2-pointers. On the road, East Carolina has a 40.4% field goal percentage — and they rank 341st in the country with an effective field goal percentage of 43.7% on the road. The Pirates have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 130s. East Carolina has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Pirates will be motivated to avenge a 92-85 loss in overtime at home to the Knights on January 18th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 85 points. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Game of the Month with the Central Florida Knights (832) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (831). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-19-22 |
Northern Colorado +6 v. Weber State |
|
83-79 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Northern Colorado Bears (775) plus the points versus the Weber State Wildcats (776). THE SITUATION: Northern Colorado (14-12) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Thursday in a 61-58 upset loss at Idaho as a 7-point favorite. Weber State (19-8) ended their three-game losing streak with a 65-50 win against Sacramento State as a 15.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUFFALOES PLUS THE POINTS: Northern Colorado only made 38.5% of their shots on Thursday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 13 games. The Bears have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss to a Big Sky rival by six points or less. They are also 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games after a point spread loss. Northern Colorado should shoot better tonight — they rank seventh in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.7%. Even after Thursday’s subpar effort, they are still making 50.8% of their shots in their last five games. The Buffaloes are making 50.1% of their shots in conference play which is generating 81.1 Points-Per-Game. They lead the Big Sky with a 39.1% shooting mark from behind the arc — and they now face a Wildcats team that ranks just seventh in the conference by allowing their opponents to make 36.1% of their 3-pointers. Northern Colorado is 32-15-1 ATS in their last 48 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting no more than six points. Weber State made 56.8% of their shots against Sacramento State in what was the best shooting effort in their last six games. They held the Hornets to just 34.0% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last 17 games. But Weber State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. The Wildcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Weber State has not covered the point spread in six straight games. Not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in at least three straight games. The Wildcats host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Weber State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Weber State won the first meeting between these two teams by an 85-76 score on January 27th. The Bears have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Saturday Night Special Feature with the Northern Colorado Bears (775) plus the points versus the Weber State Wildcats (776). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-19-22 |
Utah v. California +2.5 |
|
60-58 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (740) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (739). THE SITUATION: California (11-16) had their two-game winning streak end on Thursday with their 70-62 loss at home to Colorado as a 2.5-point underdog. Utah (10-16) comes off a 60-56 upset win at Stanford as a 4-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: California should play better tonight. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread setback. California got out-worked on the boards by a 43-28 margin to the Buffaloes in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after getting out-rebounds by at least 15 boards in their last game. Cal has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing their second game in three days. They stay at home where they have won nine of their eleven games this season — and they are holding their opponents to just 41.8% shooting from the field. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40% on the road. California has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. Utah held the Cardinal to just 36.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 14 games. But the Utes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. Utah stays on the road where they are just 3-10 this season with a -6.7 net point differential. They only make 40.5% of their shots on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games on the road. The Utes have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games with the Total set in the 130s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Utah won the first meeting between these two teams by a 66-58 score in Salt Lake City on December 5th. California has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 30 opportunities for revenge from a loss on the road. The Golden Bears have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Utes have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 20* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the California Golden Bears (740) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (739). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-19-22 |
Long Island v. Mt. St. Mary's +2 |
Top |
66-61 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (306034) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Long Island Sharks (306033). THE SITUATION: Mount St. Mary’s (12-13) has lost three of their last four games after their 64-55 upset loss to St. Francis-NY as a 5-point favorite on Thursday. Long Island (12-13) has won three games in a row with their 81-63 win at St. Francis-PA as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Mount St. Mary’s allowed St. Francis-NY to make 47.4% of their shots which was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 15 games. The Mountaineers have the top defense in the Northeast Conference in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. They have held their last two opponents to 29 and 27 points in the first half in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half of their last two games. They stay at home where they have a +10.4 net point differential while holding their guests to just a 41.5% shooting percentage and 61.2 Points-Per-Game. Mount St. Mary’s have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. On their home court, the Mountaineers pull down 37.6% of their missed shots, the 13th highest mark in the nation. Mount St. Mary’s also leads the Northeast Conference by making 35.6% of their shots — and they face a Sharks team that allows their home hosts to mane 36.7% of their shots in conference play. Long Island held St. Francis-PA to just a 32.9% shooting percentage which was the second-lowest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed all season and the lowest mark in 16 games. The Sharks also made 47.1% of their shots which was the best mark in their last 13 games. But Long Island has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a double-digit win on the road. The Sharks have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Long Island won their previous game by a 99-88 score against Bryant but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning their last two games by double-digits. The Sharks stay on the road where they are just 3-12 this season with a -9.5 net point differential. They only make 40.4% of their shots away from home. Long Island has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Mount St. Mary’s will be looking to avenge a 74-57 loss at Long Island on January 6th as a 5-point underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 opportunities to avenge a loss on the road where they did not score at least 60 points. The Mountaineers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Game of the Year with the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (306034) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Long Island Sharks (306033). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-18-22 |
St. Peter's +1.5 v. Fairfield |
Top |
70-59 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (877) plus the point(s) versus the Fairfield Stags (878). THE SITUATION: Saint Peter’s (11-10) has lost two straight games after their 70-61 loss to Iona as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Fairfield (12-14) has lost four of their last six games after their 74-67 upset loss to Manhattan as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PEACOCKS PLUS THE POINT(S): The Stags could not take care of business against an undermanned Jaspers squad earlier this week — and now they continue their jam-packed schedule this week by playing for the fourth time since Saturday. As it is, Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread 4 of their last 6 games when playing for the second time in three days. The Stags have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss to a conference rival. They do stay at home tonight — but they are just 5-8 on their home court. And while a power ratings analytics model I use ranks them 208th in the nation, that system drops them to 269th in the country when measuring home court performance. Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 120s. Playing every other day for the fourth time tonight is challenging on the shooting legs — and this Stags’ team is very dependent on making baskets since they do not do much to create more scoring chances. Fairfield ranks ninth in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference by rebounding only 25.3% of their missed shots — and they only force turnovers in 16.7% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking ninth in the conference. Furthermore, Fairfield’s defense is middling — they rank only seventh in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Saint Peter’s comes in rested with this being just their second game since last Friday — and this is their first game on the road since January 30th. Led by KC Ndefo, the two-time Defensive Player of the Year in the conference, the Peacocks have the best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in the MAAC. Saint Peter’s usually has a strong defense under head coach Shaheen Holloway — and this season is no exception. The Peacocks lead the conference by forcing turnovers in 21.5% of their opponent’s possessions. They also lead the conference in opponent’s effective field goal percentage with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45.1% inside the arc and 29.0% from 3-point land, both the best marks in the MAAC. Saint Peter’s also ranks second in the conference by pulling down 31.4% of their missed shots — and they lead the MAAC by nailing 38.3% of their 3-pointers. And this team is 26th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line — and the Stags are 230th in opponent’s free throw rate. There is a lot to like about this Peacocks team moving forward. They have held their last two opponents to 30 and 26 first-half points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games when an underdog getting up to six points. Saint Peter’s has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games after playing at least three straight games at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Peacocks under Holloway are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog — and the Stags have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (877) plus the point(s) versus the Fairfield Stags (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-17-22 |
Creighton v. DePaul -1.5 |
Top |
71-59 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the DePaul Blue Demons (850) minus the point(s) versus the Creighton Bluejays (849). THE SITUATION: DePaul (12-10) has lost two games in a row after their 73-71 upset loss to Butler as a 5-point favorite on Tuesday. Creighton (16-8) won their third straight game with their 86-77 victory against Georgetown as an 11-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLEU DEMONS MINUS THE POINT(S): DePaul may have lost six of their last eight games but they are still playing pretty good basketball this month. They lost to Providence in overtime over the weekend before losing by one possession to the Bulldogs. They upset Xavier on the road last week. They only made 41.3% of their shots against Butler which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. This DePaul team is better than their record — they played seven games without their leading scorer Javon Freeman-Liberty who was out with an injury. He is scoring 20.6 Points-Per-Game after his 20-point effort on Tuesday. The Blue Demons are 9-6 on their home court this season with impressive wins against Seton Hall and the upset machine that is Rutgers. They hold their guests to just 41.7% shooting from the field when playing at home. DePaul has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 140s. The Blue Demons have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games at home when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Creighton made 53.8% of their shots in their victory against the Hoyas — but that was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games. The Bluejays have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning three of their last four games. This is not a good shooting team this season — they only make 31.4% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 290th in the nation. They are also too loose with the basketball as they are turning the ball over in 21.3% of their possessions, ranking 324th in the nation, and it is has been worse in conference play as they are last in the Big East by turning the ball over in 22.0% of their possessions. Creighton is 7-5 on the road but they are getting outscored by -2.0 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: DePaul will be motivated to avenge a 60-47 loss at Creighton where they blew a double-digit lead in the second half by scoring only two points over a 12-minute span. But the Blue Demons played that game without Freeman-Liberty who is now back with the team — and they missed 14 of their 17 shots from 3-point land. Back at home, DePaul makes a solid 34.1% of their shots from distance. They get to play the role of spoiler tonight against a Creighton team firmly on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Thursday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the DePaul Blue Demons (850) minus the point(s) versus the Creighton Bluejays (849). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-15-22 |
Kentucky v. Tennessee -1.5 |
|
63-76 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (660) minus the point(s) versus the Kentucky Wildcats (659). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (18-6) has won four straight games and seven of their last eight after a 73-64 victory against Vanderbilt as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. Kentucky (21-4) has won six games in a row with their 78-57 win against Florida as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Tennessee is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a point spread loss. They have also held their last three opponents to no more than 64 points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 65 points in their last three games. The Volunteers have the sixth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in the nation. They stay at home where they are 13-0 this season with a +20.5 net point differential. They nail 38.1% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games when favored by up to six points. They have also covered the point spread in five of their last seven games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. During their six-game winning streak, they have won their last three games by double-digits — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning at least three games in a row and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning three in a row by 10 or more points. They are making 49.1% of their shots this season but that mark drops to a 46.6% clip when playing on the road which contributes to them scoring -7.7 Points-Per-Game in those road games versus their season average — and they allow their home hosts to score +3.4 PPG above their season average. The Wildcats are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 140-144.5 point range. Kentucky has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. And in their last 11 games as an underdog, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: Kentucky won the first meeting between these two teams on January 15th by a 107-79 score in a game where they made 11 of their 18 (61.1%) of their 3-pointers. The Wildcats only make 31.8% of their 3-pointers on the road, ranking 223rd in the nation — and the Volunteers hold their opponents to just 32.8% shooting on their home court. 10* CBB Kentucky-Tennessee ESPN Special with the Tennessee Volunteers (660) minus the point(s) versus the Kentucky Wildcats (659). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-15-22 |
Northern Iowa v. Illinois State +4.5 |
|
72-70 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Illinois State Redbirds (644) plus the points versus the Northern Iowa Panthers (643). THE SITUATION: Illinois (11-15) has lost six of their last seven games after a 60-57 loss at Indiana State as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Northern Iowa (14-10) had their five-game winning streak snapped in an 85-58 loss at Loyola-Chicago as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDBIRDS PLUS THE POINTS: Illinois State made only 33.3% of their shots on Sunday in their worst shooting effort of the season. The Redbirds have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road to a Missouri Valley Conference opponent. They return home where they are 10-4 this season with a +7.6 net point differential. Illinois State makes 46.5% of their shots on their home court which is generating 78.8 Points-Per-Game. Even better, the Redbirds shoot 37.8% from behind the arc when on their home court, ranking 54th best in the nation. They also lead the conference with a 42.7% shooting clip from downtown in their conference home games. The Panthers have struggled in defending the perimeter when playing away from Cedar Falls — they rank 327th in the nation with their opponents nailing 38.4% of their shots in their road games or neutral courts. Illinois State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. A weakness for the Redbirds is their defending their defensive glass — they rank ninth in the conference in defensive rebounding. But this will not likely be an issue when hosting this Panthers team that only rebounds 21.1% of their missed shots, ranking 343rd in the country. Northern Iowa embarrassed themselves on Sunday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a loss by 20 or more points. The Panthers have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 90 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss to a conference opponent. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — so resiliency is an issue with this team. This is their third game since last Wednesday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when playing their third game in seven days. They have a 6-6 record on the road — but they only make 44.9% of their shots which makes their offensive rebounding issues a concern. They also allow their home hosts to make 47.1% of their shots. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored. Additionally, Northern Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored overall — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Illinois State will be looking to avenge a 79-64 loss at Northern Iowa on January 29th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Underdog of the Month with the Illinois State Redbirds (644) plus the points versus the Northern Iowa Panthers (643). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-22 |
Virginia v. Virginia Tech -4.5 |
|
53-62 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (880) minus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (879). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (15-10) won their fifth straight game with their 71-59 win against Syracuse as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Virginia (16-9) has won four games in a row with their 63-53 victory as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES MINUS THE POINTS: Virginia Tech beat the Orange despite only making 38.3% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 14 games. The Hokies are still making 52.1% of their shots in their last five games fueled by them begin on-fire from behind the arc. Virginia Tech had made 66 of their last 124 shots (53.2%) from 3-point range in their previous five games before only making 8 of their 27 shots from behind the arc against Syracuse. Virginia Tech has the top-rated offense in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are second in the country in 3-point shooting with a 41.5% shooting percentage which fuels their 56.0 effective field goal percentage for the season, ranking 12th in the nation. They should have success shooting over the Cavaliers’ pack-line defense that ranks 232nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 34.8% of their shots from behind the arc. Virginia Tech has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games after winning at least four games in a row. They stay at home where they are 9-3 with a +15.5 net Points-Per-Game differential. They make 49.4% of their shots at home — and they hold their guests to just 41.2% shooting which is resulting in only 59.6 PPG. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight home games with the Total set no higher than 129.5. Virginia is just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a double-digit victory. The Cavaliers have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 34 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last contest. Virginia goes back on the road where they are 6-5 this season despite being outscored. This Cavs team once again struggles to score baskets under head coach Tony Bennett — they rank 7th in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while being last in the conference with a 32.0% shooting mark from behind the arc. But the defense is a surprising concern for a Bennett team. Virginia ranks 7th in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech will be looking to avenge a 54-52 loss at Virginia on January 12th. The Hokies made 7 of their 19 (38.6%) of their shots from behind the arc but spotted the Cavaliers 13 more shots from the charity stripe which resulted in eight net points. Virginia may not get as many calls from the refs on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. 10* CBB Virginia-Virginia Tech ESPN Special with the Virginia Tech Hokies (880) minus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (879). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-13-22 |
Colorado State +2 v. Boise State |
|
77-74 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
I have made my calls for my Super Bowl prop bets. I am offering as a free bonus with this CBB play here at Sportscapping. Here is the summary:
Best Bet: Cam Akers Under 82.5 rushing/receiving yards (-120 at DraftKings). I also like Akers under 63.5 rushing yards but prefer this receiving yards included if you can get it. Akers has five catches for 62 yards in three playoff games but that is propped up by one 40-yard gain against the Raiders. Is he 100% with a shoulder injury? Did he come back too soon from his torn Achilles? He is averaging only 2.8 YPC in the postseason and has not topped 55 rushing yards in all three games. And he fumbled twice against Tampa Bay — so it might be Sony Michel who gets the touches if the Rams have the lead in the fourth quarter (Michel had 10 carries versus San Fran). Plus, Darrell Henderson was activated yesterday — and he averaged 4.6 YPC in the regular season. Expect a three-way time-share.
Top Overlay Bet: C.J. Uzomah Under 29.5 receiving yards. While HC Taylor says he is “on track” to play after injuring his knee early against KC, he might not play despite his pronouncements that he is “not missing the biggest game of his life” (he is officially listed as questionable). I mean, why declare him out even if it looks grim (and, to be fair, he did practice on Friday). If he does play, his snaps will likely be limited. The other tight end is Drew Sample who they drafted in the second round a few years ago as a pass catcher from Washington. I would think that Taylor thinks he can get some snaps out of Uzomah, but he will want to use him carefully. Even if Uzomah was 100%, there is still an edge with the Under — while his two full playoff games this year saw more than 29.5 receiving yards, this prop finished Under in 8 of his 15 regular season games when he played the full game.
Long Shot Bet: Tee Higgins to lead all players in receiving yards (+600). Cooper Kupp is the betting favorite, but at underlay value at +120. Ja’Marr Chase is at +400 — but he will probably be covered by Jalen Ramsey. A game script where Joe Burrow throws for a lot of yards with Higgins getting the majority of that production against the Rams’ quarters zone defense is highly plausible scenario.
Thanks, Frank At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (857) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (858). THE SITUATION: Colorado State (19-3) has won three in a row and eight of their last ten after their 65-50 win against Fresno State as a 6-point favorite on Friday. Boise State (19-5) has won two in a row and 16 of their last 17 with their 69-63 win against UNLV as an 8.5-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a good matchup for Colorado State in the first meeting between these Mountain West Conference powers. Boise State can’t shoot a lick — more on that below, but they play great defense and are tough to score on. The Broncos own their defensive glass — they rank third in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound just 21.0% of their missed shots. But this will not be a problem for Niko Medved’s Colorado State team who sacrifice crashing the glass to get back on defense. The Rams only rebound 21.4% of their missed — ranking 342nd in the nation. They only two offensive rebounds in their 15-point win against the Bulldogs on Friday — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not rebounding more than five offensive boards in their last game. Colorado State has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. What the Rams do well is execute on offense without relying on second chances. They rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are 13th in the country with their shooting inside the arc and at the free-throw line respectively — and their 37.6% shooting clip from behind the arc is the 23rd best mark in the nation. Colorado State also takes advantage of their scoring opportunities since they rank 12th in the nation with a low turnover rate of just 14.9% — and this will frustrate a Broncos team that is fourth in the Mountain West in forcing turnovers. The Rams are second in the conference in that category — they force turnovers in 20.1% of their opponent’s possessions. These characteristics travel — while Colorado State ranks 54th in the nation in one of the computer models I use, that ranking elevates to 26th in the nation when focusing only on how teams perform in true road games. The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Boise State completes their three-game homestand this afternoon where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games (they were favored in all four of those games). They have not covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 home games with the Total set in the 130-134.5 point range including these last seven circumstances. While the Broncos rank 32nd in the nation in the computer model referenced earlier, that ranking drops to 65th in the country when only evaluating home performances. Boise State has not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning at least two games in a row at home despite not covering the point spread in either game. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning at least four of their last five games. And while this is their second game since last Saturday, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing their second game in the last eight days.
FINAL TAKE: About that Boise State shooting — the Broncos rank 215th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 49.1% dragged down by their 31.9% clip from behind the arc that ranks 261st in the nation (and their 3-point shooting drops to a 30.5% clip when playing at home, ranking 300th in the country). Boise State also makes only 63.9% of their free throws at home, ranking 342nd in the country. No wonder the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a favorite. 10* CBB Colorado State-Boise State FS1-TV Special with the Colorado State Rams (857) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (858). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-12-22 |
Cincinnati v. Tulsa +2.5 |
Top |
77-83 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (776) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (775). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (7-15) has lost three in a row after their 73-71 upset loss to East Carolina as a 7-point favorite on Tuesday. Cincinnati (16-7) has won two of their last three contests with their 70-59 win at South Florida as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN HURRICANE PLUS THE POINTS: Tulsa has lost ten of their last eleven games — but they have been a very tough out on their home court while not getting many breaks in close games. Besides losing to the Pirates by just a basket during this rough stretch, they also lost at home to Houston and Memphis by just two points — and they lost at home to SMU and Temple by just five points apiece. Earlier in the season. Tulsa upset Rhode Island on their home court. The Golden Hurricane allowed East Carolina to nail 50.9% of their shots after not allowing their last three opponents to make more than 41.3% of their shots. Tulsa has been playing better on the defensive end of the court — they held those three previous opponents to just 34.7% shooting. The Golden Hurricane have bounced back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Tulsa has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 home games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Tulsa has covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after losing three games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. The Golden Hurricane are just 6-7 on their home court but they are outscoring their guests by +6.7 Points-Per-Game. Tulsa has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games when an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight home games as a dog getting up to three points. Cincinnati may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a double-digit loss. The Bearcats are also 13-38-3 ATS in their last 54 games after a straight-up win — and they are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a point spread victory. Now they stay on the road where they are only making 38.9% of their shots. Cincinnati can’t shoot the basketball — they rank 266th in the nation in effective field goal percentage with a 47.8% clip while ranking no higher than 255th in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. The Bearcats are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games when favored. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games with the Total set in the 130s — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Tulsa will be motivated to avenge a 90-69 loss at Cincinnati as a 7.5-point favorite on January 20th. The Bearcats nailed 16 of their 29 shots from 3-point range in that game — but they are not likely to come close to repeating that 55.2% clip from downtown on the road where they make just 33.3% of their 3-pointers. The Golden Hurricane has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games when avenging a loss. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Underdog of the Month with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (776) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (775). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-11-22 |
Fresno State +6 v. Colorado State |
|
50-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (893) plus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (894). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (18-7) looks to rebound from a 61-59 upset loss at home to Wyoming as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. Colorado State (18-3) has won two in a row after their 82-72 win at Nevada as a 6-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Fresno State should respond with a strong effort tonight. They have are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after an upset loss as a home favorite including their last four games after those circumstances. Now they go on the road where they are 7-5 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after a loss at home. Fresno State has been playing outstanding defense — they rank 24th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and they have held their last five opponents to just 39.1% shooting which is resulting in 57.6 Points-Per-Game. They have not allowed more than 61 points in three straight games and four of their last five games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. Colorado State may be 11-1 on their home court but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored. They are making 49.3% of their shots which is generating 77.5 PPG this season — but in their last five games, they are only shooting 46.4% from the field which has resulted in their scoring average dropping by -3.7 PPG. Colorado State is experiencing a decline on defense as well. They allow their opponents to make 42.9% of their shots which results in 67.4 PPG — but in their last five games, they are allowing their opponents to shoot 46.5% from the field which is generating +6.0 more PPG for these opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado State ranks fifth in the Mountain West Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank sixth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Fresno State ranks ahead of the Rams in both metrics — they are second in the MWC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and fourth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. 10* CBB Fresno State-Colorado State CBS Sports Network Special with the Fresno State Bulldogs (893) plus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (894). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-11-22 |
St Bonaventure v. St. Louis -5 |
|
68-61 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Saint Louis Billikens (890) minus the points versus the St. Bonaventure Bonnies (889). THE SITUATION: Saint Louis (17-6) has won six straight games after their 75-57 victory at LaSalle as a 7.5-point favorite on Tuesday. St. Bonaventure (13-7) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 76-51 victory against Fordham as a 12.5-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLIKENS MINUS THE POINTS: Saint Louis should build off their momentum. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win. They have covered the point spread in their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games after covering the point spread in at least two games. They return home where they are 11-3 this season with an average winning margin of +17.5 Points-Per-Game. They are making 47.5% of their shots at home — and they are holding their opponents to just 38.1% shooting which is resulting in just 62.0 PPG. The Billikens have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. Saint Louis ranks third in the Atlantic 10 Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 41.9% is second-best in conference play. The Billikens also rank second in the Atlantic 10 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank 13th in the nation by pulling down 35.6% of their missed shots — and they should have success getting second-chance scoring opportunities against this Bonnies team that ranks ninth in the conference by allowing their opponents to pull down 29.3% of their misses. St. Bonaventure held the Rams to just 31.7% shooting on Tuesday which was the best defensive effort in their last 15 games. But the Bonnies have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by 10 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they are 5-5 but getting outscored by -4.7 Points-Per-Game. They only make 41.8% of their shots on the road which results in just 63.9 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games with the Total set in the 130s. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams this season. St. Bonaventure has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog. Saint Louis has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. 10* CBB St. Bonaventure-Saint Louis ESPN2 Special with the Saint Louis Billikens (890) minus the points versus the St. Bonaventure Bonnies (889). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-11-22 |
Oakland v. Robert Morris +7 |
|
71-68 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Robert Morris Colonials (880) minus the points versus the Oakland Grizzlies (879). THE SITUATION: Robert Morris (6-18) has lost two of their last three games after their 79-62 loss to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog. Oakland (16-8) has lost three in a row after their 78-71 upset loss at Youngstown State as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COLONIALS PLUS THE POINTS: Oakland is in a tailspin right now — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Now they complete their disastrous four-game road trip tonight. While they do have a 9-8 record on the road, they have been outscored in those games overall — and they are only making 40.7% of their shots on the road. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored. One of the flaws of this Oakland team is they give up too many offensive rebounds — they rank 337th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 33.2% of their missed shots. Robert Morris is a solid team on the glass — they are rebounding 29.9% of their shots in Horizon League play. The Colonials allows the Titans to make 50.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. Robert Morris has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss to a conference opponent. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 41 games when playing their third game in seven days, the Colonials have covered the point spread in 28 of these contests. Robert Morris is only 4-7 at home — but they are outscoring their guests by +3.5 Points-Per-Game. They make a healthy 47.0% of their shots on their home court — and they hold the visitors to just 41.4% shooting. The Colonials defense should keep them in this game. Robert Morris has held their last five opponents to 40.6% shooting which is resulting in just 64.2 PPG. They are second in the Horizon League in opponent’s field goal percentage inside the arc.
FINAL TAKE: Oakland won the first meeting between these two teams by a 79-61 score as a 12-point favorite playing on their home court. But the Grizzlies have since failed to cover the point spread in their last 5 games when favored. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with Robert Morris Colonials (880) minus the points versus the Oakland Grizzlies (879). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-10-22 |
Stanford v. Oregon -8.5 |
Top |
60-68 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (838) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (837). THE SITUATION: Oregon (15-7) has won three straight games and nine of their last ten after their 80-77 win at Utah as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Stanford (14-9) has lost three of their last five games after their 79-70 loss to UCLA as a 7.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: It may have taken some time for this Oregon team to develop some chemistry and establish an identity — but they are starting to roll now. Head coach Dana Altman has assembled a very intriguing roster with four former top-100 recruits at center and four ball-handling two-way guards. Altman can do a lot with this group, and his defenses are at their best when he has rim protectors. And Altman’s teams are always good on offense — this Ducks team leads the Pac-12 with an effective field goal percentage of 53.6% fueled by ranking second in the conference in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. Oregon should continue to feed off its momentum. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win on the road against a Pac-12 rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win on the road by three points or less. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 6 games after winning at least four or five of their last six games, they have covered the point spread 5 times. They only made 43.9% of their shots against the Utes which was the second-worst shooting effort in their last six games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they are 9-3 this season with a +14.1 net point differential. They make 50.9% of their shots on their home court which is generating 78.9 Points-Per-Game. They also hold their guests to 40.4% shooting — and they have held their last five opponents to just 38.1% shooting. Oregon has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. The Ducks have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Stanford shot 53.7% from the field in their loss to the Bruins which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. But now after playing their last four games at home, they go back on the road where they are 4-6 this season with a -7.7 net point differential. The Cardinal only makes 42.5% of their shots on the road which is resulting just 62.7 PPG. Stanford is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Cardinal has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games with the Total set in the 135-139.5 point range. Stanford has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Oregon will be motivated to avenge a 72-69 loss at Stanford in a pick ‘em contest on December 12th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Oregon Ducks (838) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (837). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-10-22 |
Georgia State v. Coastal Carolina +2 |
|
61-50 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (784) plus the point(s) versus the Georgia State Panthers (783). THE SITUATION: Coastal Carolina (12-10) has lost two straight games after their 69-64 loss at Texas State as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Georgia State (9-10) has won three of their last four games with their 69-62 win against South Alabama as a 3-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHANTICLEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Coastal Carolina should respond with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread setback. They return home where they are 9-4 this season with an +16.9 net point differential. They are making 48.6% of their shots on their home court which is generating 79.8 Points-Per-Game. They are also holding their guests to just 36.9% shooting which is resulting in just 62.9 PPG. Coastal Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog including an upset victory against South Carolina — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog in all situations. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against winning teams. The Chanticleers are 30th in the nation by pulling down 34.0% of their missed shots. They also lead the Sun Belt Conference in 3-point shooting and 3-point shooting defense — and they now host a Panthers team that is last in the conference in 3-point shooting and 3-point defense. Georgia State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after a win on their home court. The Panthers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They go back on the road where they are 4-6 despite making just 39.2% of their shots in these games — and they allow their home hosts to nail 47.5% of their shots. This team can’t shoot the basketball — it is the one area holding them back the most. They rank 340th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 44.6% — their 42.8% shooting inside the arc, ranking 351st in the country — is holding them back. Georgia State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Furthermore, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia State will want to avenge a 72-68 upset loss at home in overtime as a 5-point favorite against the Chanticleers on January 22nd — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. Don’t be surprised if Coastal Carolina pulls the upset again — but take the points for some insurance. 10* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (784) plus the point(s) versus the Georgia State Panthers (783). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-08-22 |
Butler v. Creighton -7 |
|
52-54 |
Loss |
-106 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Creighton Bluejays (658) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (657). THE SITUATION: Creighton (13-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 74-55 loss at Seton Hall as a 5-point underdog on Friday. Butler (13-8) has lost two in a row and six of their last eight games with their 75-72 loss to St. John’s in a pick ‘em contest on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUEJAYS MINUS THE POINTS: Creighton made only 36.2% of their shots against the Pirates on Friday which was the second-lowest field goal percentage in their last seven games. They also allowed Seton Hall to shoot 49.1% from the field in what was the worst defensive effort in their last 16 games. The Bluejays should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, Creighton has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a double-digit loss. And in their last 12 games after losing two of their last three games, the Bluejays have covered the point spread in 10 of these contests. Creighton should play better on defense tonight — they rank second in the Big East and 40th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank ninth in the nation by limiting their opponents to just a 42.6% shooting percentage inside the arc. They return home where they limit their opponents to just 37.3% shooting which is generating only 60.7 Points-Per-Game. The Bluejays have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Butler made 51.8% of their shots on Saturday in their narrow loss to the Red Storm which was the best shooting mark in their last 16 games. This is the Bulldogs’ third game since last Wednesday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing their third game in seven days. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. They go back on the road where they are just 2-7 this season — and they rank 336th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of just 43.5% when they are playing away from home. Butler has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when an underdog. And in their last 9 games with the Total set in the 120s, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread 6 times.
FINAL TAKE: Creighton will be looking to avenge a 72-55 loss at Butler on January 26th as a 2.5-point favorite in a game where the Bluejays made only 2 of their 22 shots from behind the arc. Back at home, Creighton is making 36.4% of their 3-pointers in Big East play. The Bluejays have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when playing with revenge. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 10* CBB Butler-Creighton CBS Sports Network Special with the Creighton Bluejays (658) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (657). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-22 |
Loyola-Chicago -1.5 v. Missouri State |
|
71-62 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (845) minus the point(s) versus the Missouri State Bears (846). THE SITUATION: Loyola-Chicago (17-4) has won three of their last four games after their 78-64 win against Illinois State as a 14.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Missouri State (17-7) has won six of their last seven games with their 69-54 win at Southern Illinois as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMBLERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Loyola-Chicago should build off their momentum this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a double-digit win against a conference opponent. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, the Ramblers have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after not covering the spread in their last two games. Loyola-Chicago ranks eighth in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.3% — they rank in the top-22 in the country in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. The Ramblers also sport the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency mark in the Missouri Valley Conference. They go on the road where they are 7-2 this season. They hold their home hosts to just 40.2% shooting which is resulting in just 60.0 Points-Per-Game. Loyola-Chicago is 9-3-4 ATS in their last 16 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games in conference play. The Ramblers are also 8-3-3 ATS in their last 14 road games when favored. Missouri State can live-or-die by their shooting since they rank just 257th in getting to the free-throw line and they only pull down 25.7% of their missed shots, ranking 259th in the nation. The Bears come off when of their better games of the season after making 54.3% of their shots and limiting the Salukis to just 36.2% shooting. Both those marks were the best in their last four games. They return home where they are 9-3 this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams winning at least 60% of their games on the road. Missouri State has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Bears are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Loyola-Chicago will be looking to avenge a 79-69 upset loss at home to Missouri State on January 22nd. The Ramblers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing with revenge — and they have won their last two games against the Bears in Springfield. 10* CBB Loyola-Missouri State ESPN Special with the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (845) minus the point(s) versus the Missouri State Bears (846). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-05-22 |
Eastern Washington +7.5 v. Southern Utah |
Top |
72-84 |
Loss |
-108 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Eastern Washington Eagles (813) plus the points versus the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (814). THE SITUATION: Eastern Washington (11-11) has lost three in a row and four of their last five games after their 90-84 loss at Weber State as an 11-point underdog on Monday. Southern Utah (14-6) has won three straight games and five of their last six contests with their 75-59 victory against Idaho as a 15-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Eastern Washington gave Kansas a scare in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament last season — but with every player who scored a point or pulled down a rebound in that game now gone, this was an expected rebuilding season for the program. Head coach Shantay Legman’s also left to rebuild the Portland program so assistant coach Dave Riley was given the reigns of the team. The 32-year-old served on the coaching staff here for ten years — and he has pretty much kept the systems and philosophies that got them to the Big Dance last season. Riley was also able to snag some key transfers to re-inject the roster with talent. Eastern Washington proved that they were still a handful to deal with after upsetting a Washington State team early in the season that currently ranks 32nd in the nation in the KenPom rankings. They are on a losing streak right now — but their four most recent losses were all settled by six points or less. They allowed the Wildcats to make 53.7% of their shots on Monday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Eagles are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss to a Big Sky opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They stay on the road where they are 7-8 this season — but they are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 games on the road including covering the point spread in twelve of their last fourteen road games this season. This team continues to be road warriors under Riley’s leadership — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games as an underdog. Eastern Washington has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games with the Total set in the 150s. This Eastern Washington team is once again a good shooting team from deep. They are third in the Big Sky by nailing 37.1% of their 3-pointers. They should have success shooting from behind the arc against this Thunderbirds team that is ninth in the conference by allowing their opponents to make 36.8% of their 3-pointers — and they have been even worse in this department when playing at home with their opponents making 39.0% of their 3-pointers. The Eagles play good perimeter defense by holding their opponents to just 33.0% 3-point shooting, the second-best defensive mark in the conference. Eastern Washington also leads the Big Sky by limiting their opponents to pull down just 20.6% of their missed shots — this should frustrate their home hosts who lead the conference in offensive rebounding. Southern Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. The Thunderbirds are 9-2 on their home court — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing at home. Southern Utah has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Thunderbirds have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored — and they host an Eagles squad that has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Southern Utah did win the first meeting between these two teams by an 89-76 score on December 2nd — but Eastern Washington has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Underdog of the Year with the Eastern Washington Eagles (813) plus the points versus the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (814). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-05-22 |
Mercer v. Chattanooga -11 |
|
68-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Chattanooga Mocs (608) minus the points versus the Mercer Bears (607). THE SITUATION: Chattanooga (18-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped with an 80-72 upset loss at Samford as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. Mercer (12-10) ended their two-game losing streak with a 67-62 upset win against Wofford as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOCS MINUS THE POINTS: Chattanooga should respond with a big effort back on their home court this afternoon. They are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss to a conference rival. Additionally, Chattanooga is 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. They return home where they are 9-1 this season with a +21.8 net point differential. They are making 49.3% of their shots at home which is generating 80.0 Points-Per-Game — and they are holding their guests to just 37.3% shooting. Chattanooga has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored. The Mocs are a powerful scoring team that ranks 32nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They pull down 35.1% of their missed shots, ranking 18th in the country. Mercer is 278th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They will likely give Chattanooga plenty of scoring opportunities when considering they turn the ball over in 20.5% of their possessions in conference play — last in the Southern Conference. The Bears have played seven straight Unders after their upset win on Monday — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at least two straight Unders. They go back on the road where they are 4-8 this season. They only make 42.8% of their shots on the road — but they allow their home hosts to shoot 46.8% from the field. Mercer has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. 10* CBB Mercer-Chattanooga ESPNU Special with the Chattanooga Mocs (608) minus the points versus the Mercer Bears (607). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-03-22 |
Drexel +5 v. Delaware |
|
76-68 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Drexel Dragons (729) plus the points versus the Delaware Blue Hens (730). THE SITUATION: Drexel (9-10) has lost three of their last four games after their 70-63 loss at UNC-Wilmington as a 2-point underdog on Monday. Delaware (15-7) has won four of their last five games after their 85-69 upset win at James Madison as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DRAGONS PLUS THE POINTS: Drexel is a veteran team that returns the two best players from the group that made the NCAA Tournament after winning the Colonial Athletic Association tournament. Head coach Zach Spiker may have the best point guard in the conference in Camren Wynter — and he is joined by center James Butler to give Drexel a strong inside-out game. The Dragons have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. They stay on the road to complete a four-game road trip where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Drexel is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation — they rank 35th in the county by making 36.8% of their shots from behind the arc. The Dragons lead the CAA by nailing 42.1% of their shots from downtown. They maintain their 3-point efficiency on the road as well where they see their shooting percentage rise to a 37.4% clip. They face a Blue Hens perimeter defense that allows their opponents to make 36.8% of their shots, ranking 315th in the nation. In conference play, Delaware ranks eighth by allowing their opponents to make 38.4% of their 3-pointers. Drexel has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. The Blue Hens may be primed for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win —and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Delaware has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Blue Hens return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Delaware has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Drexel will be motivated to avenge an 81-77 loss at home to the Blue Hens as a 1.5-point favorite on January 11th — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge. 20* CBB Drexel-Delaware CBS Sports Special with the Drexel Dragons (729) plus the points versus the Delaware Blue Hens (730). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-02-22 |
Drake v. Indiana State +4.5 |
|
85-67 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Indiana State Sycamores (684) plus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (683). THE SITUATION: Indiana State (9-11) has lost five of their last six games after their 67-52 loss at Bradley as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday. Drake (16-6) has won six of their last seven games after their 77-68 upset win at Loyola-Illinois as a 2-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SYCAMORES PLUS THE POINTS: Indiana State only made 34.0% of their shots against the Braves which was the worst shooting effort of their season. The Sycamores have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing at least five of their last six games. They return home where they are 7-2 this season including a victory against a Missouri State team ranked 59th in the nation at kenpom. Indiana State outscores their guests by +17.5 points per game — they hold these opponents to just 38.4% shooting which is resulting in only 62.4 Points-Per-Game. The Sycamores have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when getting up to six points as an underdog. Drake has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. Now they go back on the road where they are 5-5 but getting outscored by -1.3 net PPG. They allow their home hosts to make 45.9% of their shots — and their last five opponents to make 48.0% of their shots which is generating 74.4 PPG. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. Drake has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games when the favorite. Indiana State is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. 10* CBB Don’t Need the Points (but take the points) Underdog Special with the Indiana State Sycamores (684) plus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (683). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-01-22 |
Ole Miss v. LSU -12 |
|
76-72 |
Loss |
-111 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (646) minus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (645). THE SITUATION: LSU (16-5) has lost four of their last five games after their 77-68 loss at TCU as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Mississippi (11-10) has won two of their last three games with their 67056 upset win against Kansas State as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: LSU played one of their worst games of the season in their loss to the Horned Frogs in the SEC-Big 12 Challenge. They only made 36.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. And the 49.1% field goal percentage they allowed TCU to enjoy was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. The Tigers remain the top defense in the nation in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing four or five of their last six games. They return home where they are 11-1 this season a net point differential of +23.2 net Points-Per-Game. LSU holds their guests to a 34.1% field goal percentage which is resulting in a mere 55.9 PPG. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games at home — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games when favored on their home court. They should generate plenty of scoring opportunities in transition tonight. LSU is sixth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 25.4% of their opponent’s possessions — and they are facing a Rebels team that is 12th in the SEC by turning the ball over in 22.5% of their possessions. Ole Miss held the Wildcats to just 30.2% shooting on Saturday which is tied for the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed this season. But the Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while Mississippi has covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Now after playing their last three games at home, they go back on the road where they are just 1-6 this season. They are getting outscored by -8.7 PPG on the road while making just 40.7% of their shots which is resulting in just 59.3 PPG. Ole Miss has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: The Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. LSU has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when favored by at least 10 points. 10* CBB Blowout Bookie Buster with the LSU Tigers (646) minus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (645). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-01-22 |
South Carolina v. Mississippi State -8.5 |
Top |
64-78 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Mississippi State (622) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (621) THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (13-7) has lost two straight games after their 76-50 loss at Texas Tech as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. South Carolina (13-7) won their third straight game with their 74-63 upset win at Texas A&M as a 7-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State played one of their worst games of the season in their SEC-Big 12 Challenge showdown with the Red Raiders. They allowed Texas Tech to make 61.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. And they only made 39.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting performance in their last 11 contests. Ben Howland’s team should bounce back with a strong effort. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss — and they are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a loss by 20 or more points. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after failing to score at least 60 points in their last contest. This team has also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after losing two in a row. They return home where they are 11-1 this season with a +15.6 net Points-Per-Game differential. They make 49.6% of their shots on their home court which is generating 77.3 PPG. They are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home. They should control the glass against the Gamecocks. Mississippi State ranks 21st in the nation by pulling down 35.0% of their missed shots — and South Carolina allows their opponents to rebound 31.9% of their misses, ranking 308th in the nation. And while the Gamecocks rebound 34.9% of their misses, ranking 23rd in the country, the Bulldogs limit their opponents to just 24.1% rebounds of their missed shots, ranking 41st in the nation. The other area where Mississippi State has an edge in getting to the free-throw line. The Bulldogs rank 55th in the nation in free throw rate — and they are facing a South Carolina team that is 350th in the nation with a Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 43.9%. The Gamecocks played their best defensive game in their last nine against the Aggies over the week by holding them to just 34.4% shooting. But South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win by at least 10 points. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in each of their games during their three-game winning streak but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least three in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in three games in a row. South Carolina stays on the road where they are 4-5 on the road but getting outscored by -5.9 PPG. They only make 39.0% of their shots on the road which is resulting in just 62.9 PPG. Frank Martin’s team struggles to shoot the basketball. They rank 262nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 47.7% — and they only make 63.6% of their free throws, ranking 346th in the country. The Gamecocks rank 13th in the SEC on Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Mississippi State has played Florida and Kentucky tough on the road but lacks a marquee win away from home — but their biggest victory of the season was on their home court against Alabama. They will be without Tulu Smith with a knee injury who is a spark plug coming off the bench. But the Bulldogs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home when favored — and they host a Gamecocks team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Mississippi State (622) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (621). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-29-22 |
Tennessee v. Texas -3.5 |
|
51-52 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (768) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (767). THE SITUATION: Texas (15-5) has won two straight games after their 73-50 victory at TCU as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Tennessee (14-5) is on a three-game winning streak with their 78-71 win against Florida as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas continues to improve under first-year head coach Chris Beard as the team becomes more comfortable with his systems and style of play. They raced out to a 43-23 half-time lead in Fort Worth against a Horned Frogs team that just registered a high-profile victory against LSU this afternoon.
|
01-29-22 |
VCU +3.5 v. Richmond |
|
64-62 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Commonwealth Rams (681) plus the points versus the Richmond Spiders (682). THE SITUATION: VCU (12-6) has won two games in a row after their 70-68 upset win at Davidson as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Richmond (13-7) has won three games in a row with their 70-63 win at Rhode Island as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: VCU should off the momentum of their big win against the Wildcats. The Rams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after an upset win against an Atlantic 10 rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two games in a row. This is their second game since last Saturday — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing just their second game in a week. This is an interesting matchup since some of the strengths and subsequent weaknesses are mitigated by the tendencies of their opponent. VCU is second in the nation by forcing turnovers in 26.8% of their opponent’s possessions. But good luck turning over the Spiders who are sixth in the nation by turning the ball over in just 13.6% of their possessions. But on the other hand, the Rams sacrifice defensive rebounding to get out on the break — they allow their opponents to pull down 33.6% of their missed shots, ranking 332nd in the nation. But Richmond sacrifices offensive rebounds to defend fast breaks — they only rebound 22.3% of their missed shots, ranking 326th in the nation. VCU still holds an edge in two distinct areas. First, they lead the Atlantic 10 by making 40.9% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play. The Spiders are vulnerable in this regard — they rank 282nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 35.7% of their 3-pointers with that mark rising to 38.7% in conference play. Second, VCU is outstanding on the defensive end of the court. They rank second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On the road, they hold their opponents to just a 37.5% field goal percentage which is resulting in only 61.8 Points-Per-Game. The Rams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Richmond has covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after covering at least three in a row. They return home for the first time since January 14th after playing their last three games on the road. The Spiders are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home after playing their last three games on the road. While they are 7-2 on their home court this season, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home when favored. Richmond has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. And in their last 37 home games with the Total set in the 130 to 134.5 range, the Spiders have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: VCU has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog. 20* CBB VCU-Richmond CBS Sports Network Special with the Virginia Commonwealth Rams (681) plus the points versus the Richmond Spiders (682). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-28-22 |
Manhattan +6 v. St. Peter's |
Top |
51-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Manhattan Jaspers (883) plus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (884). THE SITUATION: Manhattan (10-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 78-62 loss at Monmouth as an 8.5-point underdog on Sunday. Saint Peter’s (8-7) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 69-62 upset win at Marist as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JASPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Manhattan should play better tonight against a team that carries a similar profile. The Jaspers only made 35.6% of their shots against the Hawks which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. Manhattan us 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Jaspers are led by 6’5 senior Jose Perez. The Marquette transfer came to Manhattan for his final season — he is scoring 17.9 Points-Per-Game and averaging 4.6 Assists-Per-Game. Head coach Steve Masiello’s team is the second-best in the nation in getting to the free-throw line with a 45.0% free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio. The Jaspers should get plenty of chances at the charity stripe tonight (where they make 74.5% of their free throws) against this Peacocks team that ranks 350th in the nation with an opponent’s free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 43.2%. This Manhattan team is shooting much better inside the arc this season (after making only 44.4% of their 2-pointers last year) with a 54.2% shooting clip in conference play, the top mark in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Association. The Jaspers stay on the road where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Saint Peter’s is just 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread win. They return home where they are 4-2 on the season — but they are only making 40.4% of their shots which is resulting in only 66.8 PPG. After playing their last three games on the road, the Peacocks play a home game for the first time since January 18th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games after playing at least three straight games on the road. Saint Peter’s are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams that can struggle to make shots — and they turn the ball in 20.9% and 20.8% of their possessions. Manhattan has the most impressive victory between these two teams — they beat a Liberty team currently ranked 96th in the nation in the kenpom rankings by 16 points. Saint Peter’s defeated Monmouth who rank 117th at kenpom. The Jaspers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and the Peacocks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Association Underdog of the Month with the Manhattan Jaspers (883) plus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (884). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-22 |
Purdue v. Iowa +2.5 |
Top |
83-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (824) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (823). THE SITUATION: Iowa (14-5) has won three of their last four games after their 68-51 win against Penn State as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (16-3) has won four of their last five games with their 80-60 win against Northwestern as a 12-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa is once again dynamo on offense under head coach Fran McCaffrey. They rank seventh in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But what is exciting about this Iowa team is their improved play on defense. After holding Rutgers to just 31.0% shooting eight days ago, they followed that up limiting the Nittany Lions to only 33.3% shooting on Saturday in that win. The Hawkeyes held Penn State to just 25 points in the first half — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. Iowa has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three games. The Hawkeyes stay at home where they have an 11-1 record with a net point differential of +22.5 Points-Per-Game. Iowa makes 48.5% of their shots at home which generates a whopping 90.2 PPG — and they rank fourth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on their home court. They limit their guests to 41.0% shooting. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Boilermakers have out-rebounded their last four opponents by at least seven rebounds per game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after out-rebounding their last four opponents by at least six rebounds per game. Purdue has demonstrated some vulnerabilities on defense in Big Ten play — their opponents' effective field goal percentage in conference play of 51.9% ranks ninth. They allow Big Ten opponents to make 34.1% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking ninth. Big Ten foes are also nailing 51.0% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 10th in the conference. The Boilermakers do rank number one in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they do drop to sixth in the country in that metric when playing in true road games. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Furthermore, the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored by six points or less. Additionally, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored overall — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Purdue won the first meeting between these two teams by a 77-70 in West Lafayette. Iowa played that game with their All-American Keegan Murray who is third in the nation with a 22.8 Points-Per-Game scoring average. The Hawkeyes made only 5 of their 21 shots (23.8%) from behind the arc as well in that game — but now they return home where they make 36.8% of their shots from distance. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when avenging a same-season loss. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (824) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (823). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-26-22 |
Drake v. Illinois State +4.5 |
|
89-88 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Illinois State Redbirds (720) plus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (719). THE SITUATION: Illinois State (10-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 56-53 upset loss as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Drake (14-6) has won four of their last five games with their 82-74 upset victory at Northern Iowa as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDBIRDS PLUS THE POINTS: Illinois State should respond with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss on the road. They return home where they are 9-2 this season with a +10.0 net point differential. They make 47.1% of their shots at home which results in 78.9 Points-Per-Game — and they hold their opponents to just a 40.9% field goal percentage. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on their home court. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. The Redbirds will be without Sy Chatman who suffered a torn ACL in the loss to the Purple Eagles on Sunday. He was the team’s leading rebounder with a 6.0 Rebounds-Per-Game clip — and he was second on the team with a 13.6 PPG scoring average. But they still have their leading scorer Antonio Reed who is scoring 20.2 PPG and they have forwards who can step up in Chatman’s absence including 6’9 forward Abdou Ndiaye who was expected to compete with Chatman for playing time — Ndiaye is averaging 6 minutes per game before tonight. Drake has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after playing a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. They go on the road where they are just 4-5 this season. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Drake has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Illinois State will be looking to avenge an 85-76 loss at Drake on January 12th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 opportunities to avenge a loss this season. 10* CBB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Illinois State Redbirds (720) plus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (719). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-26-22 |
Iowa State +3.5 v. Oklahoma State |
Top |
84-81 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (721) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (722). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (14-5) has lost two in a row and four of their last five after a 59-44 upset loss at home to TCU as a 6-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma State (10-8) has their two-game winning streak end on Saturday in a 56-51 loss at Texas as a 10-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State opened the season with 12 straight wins — but they are now facing the difficulties of playing in an uber-competitive Big 12 conference. But it would be a mistake to discount this team that has high-profile victories against Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa, Xavier on a neutral court, and Creighton on the road. They lost by just one point at Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse. They only made 30.9% of their shots on Saturday against the Horned Frogs which was their second-lowest mark of the season. Iowa State is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to score more than 50 points in their last game. Their previous loss was a 72-60 setback last Tuesday at Texas Tech motivated by revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after two straight losses by 10 or more points. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring more than 60 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing their second game in eight days. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 55 points in their last game. Scoring baskets is an issue for this team — they have not scored more than 64 points in eight straight games since a 98-93 win against Cleveland State on December 13th. To compound matters tonight, Oklahoma State will be without point Bryce Williams who is out with an ankle injury. The Cowboys are balanced on offense (or they lack reliable scorers …) — but Williams does lead the team with meager 10.6 Point-Per-Game and 3.3 Assists-Per-Game averages. In their last five games, they are making just 37.9% of their shots which is resulting in 57.2 PPG. They are only 3-3 on their home court where they have lost to the Xavier team that the Cyclones beat on a neutral court — and they also got upset at home to Oakland this season. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games when favored by 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: These are two similar teams who rank sixth and seven in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency fueled by the fourth and twelfth best defensive turnover rates in the nation (Iowa State has the better numbers in both instances, by the way). Both teams also are loose with the ball when they have possession (the Cyclones have slightly better seasonal turnover numbers but have been worse in conference play relative to the Cowboys). But Iowa State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when favored. 25* CBB Big 12 Underdog of the Month with the Iowa State Cyclones (721) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-24-22 |
Towson +1.5 v. Delaware |
Top |
69-62 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Towson Tigers (871) plus the point(s) versus the Delaware Hens (872). THE SITUATION: Towson (14-6) had their five-game winning streak snapped with an 81-77 upset loss to UNC-Wilmington on Saturday. Delaware (14-6) has won three games in a row with their 80-77 win against Elon as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Towson should rebound with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Just ignore last year’s 4-13 record for Towson in a year impacted by COVID and injuries. Head coach Pat Skerry is a veteran head coach with a good track record — and he was aggressive in the transfer market to bolster the talent on his roster. This is a balanced team with four players scoring at least 10.7 Points-Per-Game. As usual, Skerry’s teams attack the offensive glass — the Tigers rank 19th in the nation by pulling down 35.7% of their missed shots. They should get plenty of second-chance opportunities against a Blue Hens team that allows their opponents to rebound 37.1% of their missed shots, 321st in the nation — and they are last in the Colonial Athletic Association by allowing their conference opponents to rebound 39.7% of their misses. This Towson team is different because they are taking many more shots from behind the arc. It is not uncommon for the Tigers to take fewer than 30% of their shots from 3-point range but this year they are taking 38.7% of their shots from distance which is just over the 38.1% national average. Even better, Towson is nailing 36.4% of their 3-pointers, ranking 49th in the nation. The Tigers defense is steadily improving as well — they rank second in the Colonial in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and top the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.0%. Offensive rebounding and defense travels which is why Towson is 7-4 away from home with an average winning margin of +7.3 net Points-Per-Game. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Towson has covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road as a dog. Delaware has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home when playing with one day or less of rest. The Blue Hens have won five of their last six games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while Delaware has enjoyed halftime leads of at least seven points in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after leading by at least five points at halftime in at least three games in a row. The Blue Hens are 7-0 at home this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court. Furthermore, Delaware has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. The Blue Hens are led by George Washington transfer Jameer Nelson, Jr., the son of the former NBA player. But the vulnerability of this Delaware team is their defense.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are tied in conference play with a 5-2 record — but the Blue Hens have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Towson has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against winning teams — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Underdog of the Month with the Towson Tigers (871) plus the point(s) versus the Delaware Hens (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-22 |
Sacred Heart +3.5 v. Mt. St. Mary's |
Top |
59-98 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Sacred Heart Pioneers (306207) plus the points versus the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (306208). THE SITUATION: Sacred Heart (8-11) has won two games in a row after their 74-66 win against Central Connecticut State as a 9-point favorite on Monday. Mount St. Mary’s (6-12) has won two of their last three games after their 57-50 win at Merrimack as a 3-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIONEERS PLUS THE POINTS: This Sacred Heart team almost everyone from the young team that surprised expectations by finishing tied for third in the Northeast Conference last season. The Pioneers got clocked in the conference tournament against Bryant by 30 points — but they demonstrated their growth earlier this season by only losing by three points at Bryant on December 31st. Sacred Heart also scored an impressive opening victory to begin their season with an overtime win at LaSalle. The deeper analytics suggested that the Pioneers overachieved last season — however, the positive impact of head coach Anthony Latina should not be dismissed. Sacred Heart should play well in this game. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after a point spread loss. They are 3-1 so far in conference play. Latina runs a four-guard attack that is led by Tyler Thomas and Aaron Clarke who score 19.1 and 16.2 Points-Per-Game. This team is also one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation that ranks 109th in the country by pulling down 30.8% of their missed shots — and the lead the Northeast Conference by rebounding 37.7% of their misses. This is an area of weakness for the Mountaineers as they rank 233rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 29.6% of their misses. Sacred Heart has not covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Their offensive rebounding travels — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Mount St. Mary’s has covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. And while the Mountaineers have played two straight Unders, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after playing at least two straight Unders. Now after playing their last four games on the road, they return home to play for the first time since December 18th. Mount St. Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after playing at least three straight games on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home. The Mountaineers have a big frontline with Mezzo Offurum, Nana Opoku, and Malik Jefferson who are 6’8, 6’9, and 6’9 respectively. It is this trio that helped them win the Northeast Conference tournament and go to the Big Dance last March. But these big men don’t shoot from distance - they are a combined 8 of 28 from 3-point land this season with Offurum dominating those numbers by taking 22 of those shots (but only making five). With these three a non-threat from distance with that 28% shooting mark from 3-point land, opponents are happy to play zone defenses against them. Mount St. Mary’s went on their late-season run a year ago because Damian Chong Qui became their Mr. Everything as the primary ball-handler and scorer. He transferred to Indiana-Fort Wayne in the offseason. Head coach Dan Englestad responded by bringing in Jalen Benjamin from UAB to take over that role — but Benjamin has not been as prolific in scoring, rebounding, and assists as Chong Qui, especially in clutch time. The Mountaineers rank 323rd in the nation in eight in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.
FINAL TAKE: Mount St. Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Underdog of the Month with the Sacred Heart Pioneers (306207) plus the points versus the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (306208). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-20-22 |
Purdue v. Indiana +4.5 |
|
65-68 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (744) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (743). THE SITUATION: Indiana (13-4) has won three of their last four games after their 78-71 win at Nebraska as an 8-point favorite on Monday. Purdue (15-2) has won three straight and seven of their last eight games after their 96-88 upset win in double-overtimes at Illinois on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Hoosiers defeated the Cornhuskers despite allowing them to make 47.1% of their shots — that was the worst defensive effort in their last ten games. Indiana has quickly become one of the best defensive teams in the nation in the first season under head coach Mike Woodson who has brought his vast experience as a head coach in the NBA to Bloomington. Indiana ranks 13th in the nation and second in the Big Ten in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. They return home where they are 11-0 this season with an average winning margin of +22.4 net Points-Per-Game. They have already beaten Ohio State at home this season. They have covered 8 straight games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Hoosiers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games as an underdog. Purdue played their best defensive game in their last five contests after holding the Illini to 41.6% shooting. The Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after playing a game where at least 175 combined points were scored. Purdue has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. One of the Boilermakers’ two losses this season was on the road as a favorite against Rutgers. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Indiana has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 10* CBB Purdue-Indiana FS1-TV Special with the Indiana Hoosiers (744) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (743). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-20-22 |
St. Louis v. Massachusetts +3.5 |
Top |
85-91 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Massachusetts Minutemen (734) plus the points versus the Saint Louis Billikens (733). THE SITUATION: UMass (7-9) has lost four in a row and six of their last seven contests after their 81-68 loss to Rhode Island as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. Saint Louis (11-5) won their third game in their last four with their 63-45 win against Fordham as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MINUTEMEN PLUS THE POINTS: UMass only shot 35.7% from the field on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 14 games. The Minutemen rank 35th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. UMass ranks third in the nation by nailing 41.4% of their shots from behind the arc — and they take 41.4% of their field goal attempts from 3-point land. In conference play, the Minutemen are making 46.4% of their 3-pointers. They face a Billikens team that has allowed their five opponents away from home to shoot 36.3% from 3-point land — and their three games in true road games in hostile environments, their home hosts have made 39.7% of their shots from downtown, the 319th worst mark in the nation. UMass has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. And while they have allowed at 77 and 81 points in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 75 points in two straight games. They stay at home where they are 6-2 on the season with an average winning margin of +6.5 Points-Per-Game. They score 80.1 PPG at home — and they have already upset Penn State and Rutgers at home this season. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after playing a game at home. They are also 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games as an underdog. The Billikens made 45.3% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But they have scored just 63 points in each of their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games after not scoring more than 65 points in two straight contests. They held the Rams to only 28.6% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last 13 games. But Saint Louis has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 29 road games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest. Away from home, the Billikens are 3-2 while making only 41.4% of their shots — and they allow their opponents to make 47.5% of their shots away from home. Saint Louis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Billikens have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when favored by up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: UMass has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Underdog of the Month with the Massachusetts Minutemen (734) plus the points versus the Saint Louis Billikens (733). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-19-22 |
American v. Army -9 |
Top |
66-76 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (1142) minus the points versus the American Eagles (1141). THE SITUATION: Army (10-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 68-54 upset loss at Lafayette as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. American (5-10) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 63-55 win at home against Bucknell in a pick ‘em contest on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Army should respond to their upset loss with a strong performance tonight. They only made 33.9% of their shots on Sunday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 13 games. The Black Knights have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring at least 60 points on the road in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a loss on the road. Head coach Jimmy Allen has three starters back from the group that finished 15-15 last season. They were the only Patriot League team that played non-conference games in a year impacted by COVID. They are 4-2 so far in conference play. This team does not give away many freebies at the charity stripe — they rank 11th in the nation in opponent free throw rate. They are also second in the conference by forcing turnovers in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions — and they now host a team in the Eagles that is last in the Patriot League by turning the ball over in 19.1% of their possessions. Army returns home where they are 7-1 this season with an average winning margin of +16.7 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to 37.4% shooting which results in just 59.5 PPG. The Black Knights have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. American was a difficult team to gauge entering this season. They only played ten games last year, winning just four times. They only played three different opponents in their nine regular-season games in the skewed Patriot League schedule impacted by COVID. Their best player from that group, Jamir Harris, transferred to Seton Hall. After an opening game overtime victory against a Marist team that ranks 169th in the currently kenpom rankings, they have since not defeated a team ranked higher than 290th using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. The Eagles are last in the Patriot League in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are also last in the conference by making only 28.1% of their shots from behind the arc. They go back on the road where they are just 2-8 this season — and they are getting outscored by -16.5 PPG. They only score 62.7 PPG on the road — and they give up 79.2 PPG on 49.6% shooting. American has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Patriot League Game of the Month with the Army Black Knights (1142) minus the points versus the American Eagles (1141). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-18-22 |
Missouri v. Ole Miss -7 |
|
78-53 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET Tuesday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (628) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (627). THE SITUATION: Ole Miss (9-7) has lost two in a row and four of their last five games after their 80-71 loss to Auburn as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. Missouri (7-9) has lost two in a row and four of their last five contests after their 67-64 loss to Texas A&M as a 5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS MINUS THE POINTS: Mississippi allowed the Tigers to make 50% of their shots — and that came after Texas A&M made 55.8% of their shots against them in their previous game. Ole Miss has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. The Rebels have not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Mississippi has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing four of their last five games. They stay at home where they are 8-2 this season — and they are outscoring their visitors by +10.6 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 41.5% shooting. Ole Miss has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Missouri made 47.2% of their shots against the Aggies which was the second-best shooting mark in their last seven games. And by holding Texas A&M to just 38.1% shooting, they enjoyed the best defensive effort in their last seven games. But the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after losing two of their last three games. Missouri goes back on the road where they are just 1-6 this season while getting outscored by -23.3 PPG. They only make 35.4% of their shots on the road which is resulting in just 56.6 PPG. They allow their home hosts to make 51.0% of their shots. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home.
FINAL TAKE: Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. Mississippi has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Mississippi Rebels (628) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (627). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-22 |
Indiana v. Iowa -4.5 |
Top |
74-83 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (840) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (839). THE SITUATION: Iowa (11-4) had their four-game winning streak snapped with an 87-78 loss at Wisconsin as a 3.5-point underdog last Thursday. Indiana (12-3) won their fifth game in their last six with their 73-60 victory against Minnesota as an 11.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa allowed the Badgers to make 50.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. The Hawkeyes should bounce back tonight as they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a loss on the road. And while Iowa has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games including the last four of these circumstances. The Hawkeyes are an outstanding offensive team that ranks third in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They make the most of their scoring opportunities as they lead the nation with the lowest turnover rate in the nation. Iowa also leads the nation with the lowest block rate in the country — and that is a great attribute to have when facing the Hoosiers’ Trayce Jackson-Davis who blocks 10.5% of the shots in his direction this season. Iowa returns home where they are 9-1 with an average winning margin of +24.2 net Points-Per-Game. The Hawkeyes made 49.5% of his shots at home which generates 93.1 PPG. They also hold their opponents to just 68.8 PPG on 40.8% shooting. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they are 15-6-3 ATS in their last 24 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win against a Big Ten opponent. The Hoosiers preceded their victory against the Golden Gophers with a 67-51 win at home against Ohio State — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row against conference foes. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games after winning two straight games by double-digits against conference opponents. Indiana is too loose with the basketball — they turn the ball over in 19.5% of their possessions, ranking 209th in the nation. The Hawkeyes do force turnovers — their opponents turn the ball over in 20.0% of their possessions, ranking 107th in the country. Now the Hoosiers go back on the road for just the fifth time in a true road game. They have lost three of those four games while making just 44.7% of their shots. Indiana is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 60% on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: The Hoosiers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored. 25* CBB Thursday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (840) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (839). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-11-22 |
Ball State v. Akron -8.5 |
|
74-84 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Akron Zips (640) minus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (639). THE SITUATION: Akron (8-4) had their six-game winning streak snapped with a 69-63 upset loss to Ohio as a 1.5-point favorite last Tuesday. Ball State (7-7) has won three of their last four games with their 78-72 upset win at Eastern Michigan as a 1-point underdog on January 8th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ZIPS MINUS THE POINTS: Akron should rebound with a strong effort. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset loss. The Zips have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss to a Mid-American Conference opponent. They only made 9 of 17 (52.9%) of their free throws against the Bobcats — but they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after not making at least 53% of their free throws in their last game. Head coach John Groce’s team is not a great shooting team from the charity stripe — they make only 65.4% of their free throws. But Akron is third in the nation in free throw rate with a free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 44.7%. They should be living at the free-throw line tonight against this Cardinals team that ranks 293rd in the nation in opponent free throw rate. This team is talented — they lost by just one point, 67-66, at Ohio State to begin their season. They stay at home where they are 5-1 with an average winning margin of +14.7 Points-Per-Game. They score a healthy 82.2 PPG at home. The Zips have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games teams with a losing record on the road. Akron has also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games with the Total set in the 140s. Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after winning four or five of their last six games. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after covering the point spread in at least two in a row. Ball State stays on the road where they are just 2-6 this season with an average losing margin of -13.3 PPG. They only make 42.2% of their shots on the road — and they are allowing their home hosts to score 84.0 PPG on 47.6% shooting. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Akron Zips (640) minus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (639). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-07-22 |
Brown +3.5 v. Harvard |
Top |
84-73 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Brown Bears (879) plus the points versus the Harvard Crimson (880). THE SITUATION: Brown (8-8) has lost four games in a row after their 77-73 upset loss to Pennsylvania as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Harvard (8-4) is on a three-game winning streak after their 77-69 win against Howard as a 7-point favorite back on December 21st.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Harvard has had their last three scheduled games postponed because of COVID issues. They face rust concerns taking the court for the first time in almost three weeks. As it is, the Crimson have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Harvard plays their fourth straight game at home but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning their last two games on their home court. This is the Ivy League debut for the Crimson who have played a pretty light schedule that ranks 303rd most difficult according to the metrics at kenpom. They are making only 40.7% of their shots in their last five games — and they have a 43.3% field goal percentage in their seven home games. Harvard has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Crimson will not have the advantage of cheering fans either given the restriction of fans attending games given COVID regulations. Head coach Tommy Amaker recruits well for this team — but Brown head coach Mike Martin has followed his lead by bringing long and athletic talent to his program which makes this team stand out in the league. Led by the reigning Defensive Player of the Year (when the Ivy last played in 2019-20) in Jaylen Gainey who protects the rim down low, the Bears ranks 117th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. That defensive ranking is more impressive considering that Brown ranks 110th in strength of schedule at kenpom. The Bears have beaten Bradley on a neutral court while losing to North Carolina by just a 94-87 score (with the score tied going into the final ten minutes of the game) and losing to Colorado by just two points. Brown has also played Creighton, Maryland, Syracuse, and Vermont — this is a battle-tested group. They were without their top playmaker, Tamenang Cho in four early games including the narrow loss in Chapel Hill. Having played three times since Christmas, Martin’s team is in midseason form. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing four of their last five games. And while they have played seven straight Overs, they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 road games after playing at least two straight Overs. Brown is 4-6 on the road this season — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Brown swept the two regular-season games against Harvard in 2019 before the season got canceled because of COVID. The Bears have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Harvard has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against Ivy League opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Brown Bears (879) plus the points versus the Harvard Crimson (880). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-06-22 |
Texas-Arlington v. Georgia State -7.5 |
Top |
70-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (760) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (759). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (6-5) has lost four of their last six games after their 72-62 loss to Georgia Tech in overtime as a 5-point underdog on December 21st. UT-Arlington (6-7) won their third straight game with their 62-57 victory against Troy as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia State made only 28.2% of their shots against the Yellow Jackets which was the worst shooting effort of the season. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. And while the Panthers got outrebounded by a 51-33 margin, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after getting outrebounded by at least 15 boards in their last game. Georgia State returns all five starters from the group that lost in the Sun Belt Conference tournament championship game last season. COVID has slowed this team down so far this season but they are mostly healthy now in making their conference debut tonight. They are 4-0 at home where they are outscoring their opponents by a whopping +39.0 net Points-Per-Game. The Panthers make 48.9% of their shots at home which is generating 88.0 PPG — and they are holding their opponents just 33.8% shooting and 49.0 PPG. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. The Panthers are 25th in the nation by making 38.0% of their 3-point shots — and they nail 39.4% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. UT-Arlington is 250th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 34.8% of their shots from behind the arc — and they rank 272nd in the nation with their opponents making 37.0% of their shots from 3-point range when playing away from home. The Mavericks played their second-best defensive game of the season by holding the Trojans to 30.0% shooting — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after holding their last opponent to no better than 33% shooting. UT-Arlington has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning three of their last four games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when playing their second game in a seven-day span. They go back on the road for the first time since December 19th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games after playing their last three games on the road. The Mavericks are just 1-6 on the road where they are scoring only 55.1 PPG on 37.3% shooting. They are getting outscored by -16.8 PPG on the road. UT-Arlington has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia State should force plenty of turnovers tonight — they rank 46th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.0% of their opponent’s possessions. UT-Arlington is 324th in the nation by turning the ball over in 22.5% of their possessions — and they have turned it over in 23.1% of their possessions on the road. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month with the Georgia State Panthers (760) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (759). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-04-22 |
Kentucky v. LSU -2 |
Top |
60-65 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (622) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (621). THE SITUATION: LSU (12-1) lost their first game of the season in a 70-55 loss at Auburn as a 4.5-point underdog on December 22nd. Kentucky (11-2) has won four games in a row with their 92-48 victory against High Point as a 27-point favorite on December 31st.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: LSU should respond with a strong effort as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with five or six days of rest. The Tigers played their worst game of the season against Auburn. Their 28.6% shooting percentage was the lowest of the season for them — and the 43.4% mark they allowed those Tigers to hit was actually their worst defensive effort of the year. LSU is the top-rated team in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at KenPom. They return home where they are 8-0 this season with an average winning margin of +32.7 Points-Per-Game. They score 84.6 PPG on 49.4% shooting from the field. They hold their guests to 32.1% shooting and just 51.9 PPG. They are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games at home — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games when favored. The Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Kentucky shot 59.1% from the field against High Point which was the best shooting mark for them all season. And the 31.1% shooting they allowed was also the best defensive mark for them all year. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Kentucky has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after winning at least three games in a row. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Wildcats play their first road game away from home since December 11th. Kentucky is just 1-2 away from home this season — and they allow teams not playing in their Rupp Arena to make 47.1% of their shots. The Wildcats are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Kentucky does not get to the free-throw line either — they rank 320nd in the nation in free throw rate. Not getting freebies against a team that is so good on defense will be tough.
FINAL TAKE: LSU has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Game of the Month with the LSU Tigers (622) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (621). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-22-21 |
Arizona v. Tennessee |
Top |
73-77 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (752) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Wildcats (751). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (8-2) has won two in a row after their 96-52 victory against USC Upstate as a 35.5-point favorite on December 14th. Arizona (11-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 84-60 victory against Cal-Baptist as a 28-point favorite on December 18th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on their home court — and they are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games after a win by 20 or more points. This is an outstanding defensive team that ranks second in the nation at kenpom in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last four opponents to 36.8% or lower shooting from the field. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after not allowing their two opponents to make no better than 37% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing their last three opponents to make more than 37% of their shots. They have generated 15 and 13 steals in each of their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 20 home games after registering double-digit steals in two straight games. The Volunteers are 6-0 on their home court with an average winning margin of +32.8 net Points-Per-Game average margin of victory. The conventional wisdom regarding Tennessee is that they struggle against elite defenses. But their two losses this season to Villanova and Texas Tech in overtime were both on neutral courts. They have also beaten North Carolina on a neutral court and Colorado in Boulder. Back home in Knoxville, the Volunteers make 49.1% of their shots and score 87.0 PPG. They also make 41.7% of their shots from 3-point range at home as compared to their 23.2% shooting clip from behind the arc when on the road. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored overall. Arizona held Cal-Baptist to just 33.3% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game at home where they won but did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Additionally, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least eight games in their last ten contests — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after winning at least three straight games. The Wildcats have beaten Illinois on the road in Champagne and Michigan on a neutral court in Las Vegas — but they needed overtime to defeat Wichita State in that same tournament in Vegas the night before beating the Wolverines. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games as an underdog getting up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: It has been a surprising start for first-year head coach Tommy Lloyd — but this will be the biggest test for the former Gonzaga assistant who has brought in several transfer players to Tuscon to form an interesting squad. The Wildcats are just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in December. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Tennessee Volunteers (752) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Wildcats (751). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-11-21 |
Mississippi State v. Colorado State |
Top |
63-66 |
Loss |
-116 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (625) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Colorado State Rams (626). THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (6-2) had their two-game winning streak end in an 81-76 upset loss to Minnesota as an 11.5-point favorite on Sunday. Colorado State (9-0) remained undefeated this season after their 74-58 win against Saint Mary’s as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Mississippi State probably played their worst game of the season against the Golden Gophers. Their 43.7% shooting percentage was the second-lowest of the year — and the 49.2% shooting mark by Minnesota was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage this season. Head coach Ben Howland should have his team prepared for this contest. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by six points or less. Mississippi State has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss. The Bulldogs have not covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. This team should play well on a neutral court — they pull down 37.6% of their missed shots, ranking 12th best in the nation. Colorado State comes off their biggest win of the season in what was their second straight victory by double-digits. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. And while Colorado State has covered the points spread in two straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Rams lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 61.3% fueled by them nailing 44.0% of their shots from behind the arc, the best 3-point shooting percentage in the country. But seven of Colorado State’s nine games have been at home. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Rams go back on the road for just the third time this season. Colorado State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their three previous games at home. The Rams have seen their 3-point shooting drop to 40.3% away from home — and now they face this Bulldogs team that holds their opponents to just 31.9% shooting from 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado State is vulnerable on defense as they rank 104th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on a neutral court as an underdog. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, Colorado State is 2-5-1 ATS. 25* CBB ESPNU Game of the Month with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (625) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Colorado State Rams (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-08-21 |
Marquette +2 v. Kansas State |
Top |
64-63 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Marquette Golden Eagles (711) plus the point(s) versus the Kansas State (712). Marquette (7-2) looks to rebound from an 89-76 loss at Wisconsin as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas State (5-2) comes off a 65-59 upset win at Wichita State as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN EAGLES PLUS THE POINT(S): Marquette allowed the Badgers to make 50.8% of their shots on Saturday in what was their worst defensive performance of the season. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 road games after a double-digit loss on the road. Marquette has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after a game where both teams scored at least 75 points. The Golden Eagles have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. First-year head coach Shaka Smart has this team playing like his “Havoc” teams at Virginia Commonwealth at a rapid pace and with a full-court 1-2-2 pressing zone. The Eagles lead the nation by averaging only 14.8 seconds per possession. Smart did not inherit a returning starter from last season — under 20% of the production from last year returned. But he did bring in Darryl Morsell from Maryland after he won the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Award last season. Smart’s Havoc tactics help to compensate for the lack of experience. Marquette has already pulled off upset victories against Illinois, West Virginia, and Mississippi. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. Smart’s teams are 41-23-1 ATS in his last 65 road games as an underdog — and his teams have covered the point spread in eight of their last eleven games on the road as an underdog going back to last season with Texas. Kansas State appears to be without their leading scorer Nigel Pack who is in the concussion protocol. He is scoring 15.8 Points-Per-Game while nailing 49.6% of their shots from 3-point range. Pack did not play in their upset win against the Shockers - but they only made 33.9% of their shots in the win. The Wildcats hosts this game at Bramage Coliseum — but the home fans are not quite as rowdy in non-conference games in December as they will be once the Big 12 schedule begins. As it is, Kansas State is just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games at home. Furthermore, the Wildcats are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 home games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when laying up to six points. Kansas State has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Marquette should have an edge at the charity stripe tonight. The Golden Eagles rank 15th in the nation in free throw rate — and Kansas State is 227th in defensive free throw rate in putting their opponent on the line. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Marquette Golden Eagles (711) plus the point(s) versus the Kansas State (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-21 |
Gonzaga v. UCLA +7 |
Top |
83-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (618) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (617) in the Finals of the Empire Classic tournament. THE SITUATION: UCLA (5-0) has opened the season with five straight victories after their 75-62 victory against Bellarmine last night in their opening game in this two-day tournament. Gonzaga (5-0) has won five games in a row to open the season with their 107-54 win against Central Michigan as a 34-point favorite last night in their first game in this event. The Empire Classic takes place on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: UCLA continues to be undervalued by the market after their improbable run to the Final Four last season. The Bruins were the beneficiaries of some shooting luck in the NCAA Tournament — but shooting luck did not account for them going blow-for-blow with that loaded Gonzaga team in the National Semifinals. UCLA improved as the season went on under second-year head coach Mick Cronin teaching his defensive principles in a season marred by COVID. The Bruins return three players that are on the preseason Wooden Award watch list in Johnny Juzang (who single-handedly beat Michigan in the Elite Eight), Tyger Campbell (started every game at point guard for Cronin at UCLA), and Jamie Jaquez, Jr. (last year’s second-leading scorer). Cronin won’t have big man Cody Riley tonight as he recovers from an MCL injury — but he brought in Myles Johnson as a transfer from Rutgers with his seven-foot-seven wingspan. He was 19th in the nation last year in block rate. Peyton Watson is a top-ten recruit who also gets added into the mix of a group that has 91% of the returning minutes back from the Final Four team. This is a loaded group that continues to improve under Cronin. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. UCLA only made 45.2% of their shots last night which was the worst shooting effort for them so far this season — and the 45.1% shooting they allowed last night was the second-highest of the year. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss after failing to cover the 22.5-point spread last night. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Gonzaga held the Chippewas to just 30.4% shooting last night which was the best defensive effort of the season. After a 12-point win against Texas in their second game of the year, the Bulldogs have won their next three games by at least 27 points — but that was against a Bellarmine team ranked 188th in the nation in KenPom’s rankings. Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning three in a row by at least 15 points. They have covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after only failing to cover the point spread once in their last four games. And while they have scored at least 84 points in each of their games this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after scoring at least 80 points in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games on the road after scoring at least 80 points in five straight games. Gonzaga’s stiffest competition was against a Texas team under new coach Chris Beard coaching a group of high-profile transfers. That Longhorns team is a few months away from successfully executing Beard’s no-middle defense that attempts to trap the ball to one side of the court. Gambling on that guess was pure guesswork early in the season (which is why I tend to embrace caution in the November CBB games — especially with the transfer market now even busier in the offseason). What was telling in that game, for me, was that the Zag’s 7’0 freshman phenom Chet Holmgren made just one of three shots for 2 points. I think it remains to be seen if he is a good fit when playing on the floor with the 6’10 Drew Timme. The twin towers look is not as successful for modern basketball — and Holmgren’s ability to defend the perimeter is an issue (and it is not a strength for Timme). Gonzaga should be great once again this year — but this group is a work in progress for head coach Mark Few after losing a top-five pick in Jalen Suggs along with two other starters in outside shooter Corey Krispert and a glue guy in Joel Ayayi.
FINAL TAKE: UCLA’s victory over Villanova this season is more impressive than Gonzaga’s win over the Longhorns. Cronin will have his team very motivated to avenge their 93-90 loss to the Bulldogs in the Final Four last year — and he has had all the off-season to scheme a defensive play against Timme. The Bruins are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog. UCLA has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Game of the Month with the UCLA Bruins (618) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (617). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-12-21 |
Villanova v. UCLA -2.5 |
|
77-86 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (888) minus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (887). THE SITUATION: UCLA (1-0) opened their season with a 95-58 victory against Cal-State Bakersfield as a 23-point favorite on Tuesday. Villanova (1-0) began their campaign with a 91-51 victory against Mount St. Mary’s as a 25.5-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINT(S): UCLA is being undervalued by the market after their improbable run to the Final Four last season. The Bruins were the beneficiaries of some shooting luck in the NCAA Tournament — but shooting luck did not account for them going blow-for-blow with that loaded Gonzaga team in the National Semifinals. UCLA improved as the season went on under second-year head coach Mick Cronin teaching his defensive principles in a season marred by COVID. The Bruins return three players that are on the preseason Wooden Award watch list in Johnny Juzang (who single-handedly beat Michigan in the Elite Eight), Tyger Campbell (started every game at point guard for Cronin at UCLA), and Jamie Jaquez, Jr. (last year’s second-leading scorer). Cronin won’t have big man Cody Riley tonight as he recovers from an MCL injury — but he brought in Myles Johnson as a transfer from Rutgers with his seven-foot-seven wingspan. He was 19th in the nation last year in block rate. Peyton Watson is a top-ten recruit who also gets added into the mix of a group that has 91% of the returning minutes back from the Final Four team. This is a loaded group that continues to improve under Cronin. They get to host this game at Pauley Pavilion where they are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games. The Bruins are also 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after a straight-up win — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a point spread victory. Villanova has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a point spread win. This is a very tough spot for head coach Jay Wright’s team to travel across the country early in the season to then play when their body clocks tell them it is 11:30 PM ET. The Wildcats return Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels who are great college basketball players — but Wright is not bringing in the NBA talent that he was just a few years ago. Four starters return from the group that lost to Baylor in the Sweet 16. But Wright is replacing Jeremiah Robinson-Earl who was the lynchpin of what was an otherwise suspect team on defense — he was drafted by the Oklahoma City Thunder early in the second round of the NBA draft. Villanova tends to live-by-the-tree but die-by-the-three — they nailed 53% of their 3-pointers on Tuesday. Defending the arc will be a point of emphasis for Cronin after allowing Cal-State Bakersfield to make 41% of their 3-pointers. The Bruins held their opponents to 33.7% of the shots from downtown last season.
FINAL TAKE: Villanova has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. UCLA is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. 10* CBB Villanova-UCLA ESPN2 Special with the UCLA Bruins (888) minus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (887). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-05-21 |
Baylor +5 v. Gonzaga |
Top |
86-70 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 0 m |
Show
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At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (811) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (812). THE SITUATION: Baylor (27-2) has won five straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 78-59 win against Houston as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Gonzaga (31-0) survived overtime in a 93-90 buzzer-beating win against UCLA as a 14-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: In assessing this potential National Championship matchup for the last few months, I presumed I would take Baylor plus the points in a matchup between two teams that I considered roughly even. The events from Saturday make the Bears’ play a bit better. Gonzaga having to expend more physical and emotional energy by playing an extra five minutes against the Bruins. This game with UCLA also continued to expose some flaws with this, albeit, great Bulldogs’ team. Their half-court defense is not elite. They allowed the Bruins to make 57.6% of their shots — and the Zags have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. Gonzaga ranks only 55th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.5%. The Bulldogs were also a bit loose at times with the basketball — taking ill-advised chances — which might be the result of a team that has become overconfident from winning all their games. There is a reason that the last team to finish a season undefeated was during the Jimmy Carter Administration (granted, his last year in office). And the flip-side of this coin is that overconfidence can suddenly become insecurity when threatened. The pressure of making history make become a factor for Gonzaga. It is one thing for Jalen Suggs to make an improbable from 35-feet when the game is tied— it is another to make winning shots when missing the shot risks infamy for the shooter. As it is, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. And while the Zags had covered the point spread in their previous four games before not coming close to covering the point spread against UCLA, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Baylor should build off their momentum from their easy victory against a good Houston team. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a win by at least 10 points. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road when playing their second game in three days. What I like about this Bears team is that they have multiple ways to create more scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. They are sixth in the nation by pulling down 36.9% of their missed shots. They are also third in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.6% of their opponent’s possessions. But as they demonstrated against the stout Cougars defense that went into the Final Four with the nation’s top statistical defense in terms of effective field goal percentage, Baylor makes their shots more often than not. The Bears shot 52.7% from the field against Houston — including making 11 of 24 (45.8%) from behind the arc. Baylor leads the nation by making 41.2% of their 3-pointers. Leading the nation in 3s, while ranking top-six in offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers is a great formula for winning a National Championship. The Bears are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games under head coach Mark Few.
FINAL TAKE: I think the laptops may actually be undervaluing this Baylor team -- their three-week COVID pause took them a few weeks to recover and get back to playing in their earlier form. This Bears team is playing much better in April than they were in February. And this group will likely have a chip on their shoulder installed as an underdog for the first time all season. Baylor has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games as an underdog under Drew. 25* CBB Game of the Year on the Baylor Bears (811) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-03-21 |
UCLA v. Gonzaga -13.5 |
Top |
90-93 |
Loss |
-104 |
9 h 25 m |
Show
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At 8:34 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (804) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (803). THE SITUATION: Gonzaga (30-0) reached the Final Four on Tuesday with their 85-66 win against USC as a 12-point favorite. UCLA (22-9) won their fifth straight game in this Big Dance with their 51-49 upset win against Michigan as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Gonzaga has won all four of their NCAA Tournament games by at least 16 points — and they should continue to roll against the Bruins. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Gonzaga has covered the point spread in all four of their games in the Big Dance — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. The Bulldogs made 50% of their shots against USC after they made 59.6% of their shots against Creighton — and they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 51 games after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. UCLA may be due for a letdown after pulling off their second straight upset victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning five games in a row. The Bruins have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points. UCLA only had 12 team assists against the Wolverines after generating only 12 team assists against Alabama in their previous game. They have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not generating more than 12 team assists in two straight games. The Bruins too often have resorted to Johnny Juzang playing “hero ball” to bail them out. The lack of ball movement will get them burned against Gonzaga. Frankly, UCLA has been pretty fortunate to make it this far in this Big Dance. They survived overtime against Michigan State and Alabama. Michigan had many opportunities to score a final basket to either force overtime or win the game in regulation. The Wolverines made only 6 of their 11 free throws. The Crimson Tide made just 11 of their 25 free throws. In their Round of 64 game against BYU, the Cougars made only 9 of 16 free throws. None of their five opponents have shot better than 33% from 3-point land — Michigan was 3 of 11 (27.2%), Alabama was 7 of 28 (25%), Abilene Christian was 4 of 19 (21.0%), BYU was 3 of 19 (15.8%), Michigan State was 6 of 18 (33%). Now UCLA faces a confident Gonzaga team that makes 37.1% of their 3-pointers.
FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in all 4 games in this NCAA Tournament. UCLA is due for a letdown and have been fortunate to survive — while the Zags are a machine. 25* CBB Final Four Game of the Year with the Gonzaga Bulldogs (804) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (803). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-03-21 |
Houston +5 v. Baylor |
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59-78 |
Loss |
-106 |
3 h 19 m |
Show
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At 5:14 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (801) plus the points versus the Baylor Bears (802). THE SITUATION: Houston (28-3) won their 11th straight game on Monday with their 67-61 win against Oregon State as an 8-point favorite. Baylor (26-2) won their fourth straight game with their 81-72 victory against Arkansas as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston has only played one team this season ranked in the top-20 by metrics guru Ken Pomeroy — that was Texas Tech back on November 29th. But the Cougars did defeat the Red Raiders by a 64-53 score. Baylor played Texas Tech twice this season — they beat them twice by 8 and 15 point margins. The laptops project this to be a 1-point game with one of the systems I track protecting Houston as the small favorite (Pomeroy has Baylor by 1-point). I think the market is wrong — the Bears have been a public team all season, and bettors are backing Baylor against this Cougars team from the unheralded American Athletic Conference. Houston should relish in their role as the underdog for the first time since that November game against the Red Raiders. They should shoot better than 32.3% of their shots as they did against the Beavers which was the lowest shooting mark of the season for them. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after a point spread loss. Houston’s defense should keep them competitive in this game. They have held their last five opponents — all NCAA Tournament teams — to 55.4 PPG on a 36.3% field goal percentage. The Cougars lead the nation with an opponent effective field goal percentage of 43.3% while ranking in the top-11 in 2-point and 3-point defense. Baylor outlasted the Razorbacks while making 48.4% of their shots which was the best shooting mark in their last five games. The Bears have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering at least three of the last four games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after winning at least 18 of their last 20 games. Baylor also allowed Arkansas to make 48.1% of their shots which resurrected concerns about the play of their defense that took a step or two back in February after their three-week pause because of COVID. Teams can shoot on the Bears — they have an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.9% which is just 120th in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: It strikes me how similar both these teams are. They both are top-seven in the nation in offensive rebounding. Houston is second nationally by pulling down 39.8% of their missed — and Baylor allows their opponents to rebound 30.6% of their misses. Both force turnovers in at least 21.3% of their opponent’s possessions. While the Bears lead the nation in 3-point shooting, the Cougars are 11th in opponent’s 3-point shooting defense. This is going to be a tough matchup for a Baylor team that is supposed to be awaiting coronation for a championship game date with Gonzaga on Monday. Houston has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog on a neutral court. 10* CBB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Houston Cougars (801) plus the points versus the Baylor Bears (802). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-30-21 |
UCLA v. Michigan -6.5 |
Top |
51-49 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 30 m |
Show
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At 9:57 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (660) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (659). THE SITUATION: Michigan (23-4) has won four of their last five games after their 76-58 win against Florida State as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. UCLA (21-9) won their fourth game in this Big Dance with their 88-78 win in overtime against Alabama as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan held the Seminoles to just 40% shooting — and that was the highest opponent field goal percentage against them so far in this Big Dance. The Wolverines are an outstanding defensive team that ranks eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They held Florida State to under 60 points for the first time all season. Michigan also had their offense clicking by making 49.2% of their shots against a tough Seminoles’ defense whose length was supposed to overwhelm the Wolverines. Juwan Howard has this team operating an NBA-style offense with pick-and-rolls designed to create mismatches and open players. Everyone in the rotation is a competent scorer. Michigan should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win. The Wolverines are averaging 81.7 PPG in this tournament with the 76 points against Florida State being their lowest scoring output. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. The loss of Isaiah Livers has been absorbed by several players on this team. Brandon Johns took his spot in the starting lineup — he scored 14 points with six rebounds on Sunday. Johns gives the team more of a post-up presence alongside freshman phenom Hunter Dickinson as opposed to Livers who thrived on the perimeter as a slasher and 3-point shooter. He is averaging 10.7 PPG in this tournament. Wake Forest transfer Chaundee Brown is getting more playing time with Livers on the shelf — and he has scored 33 points in the last two games. Michigan has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games when favored. UCLA scored 23 points in the overtime session to smother the Crimson Tide in overtime on Sunday — but that additional energy may come back to haunt them on short rest for this game. Head coach Mick Cronin has survived this season despite losing his best player, Chris Smith, to a season-ending injury in late December. And forward Jalen Hill did not make the trip to the bubble with this team which further depleted the depth of this team. The Bruins have played one extra game in this tournament with their play-in game First Four victory against Michigan State in another overtime game. But the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least four games in a row. And while UCLA has allowed only 29 and 21 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. The Bruins are playing better on defense after a bad first half against the Spartans — but this is still an area of weakness. While UCLA ranks 54 in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 92nd in that metric when playing on the road. They allow their opponents to make 49.1% of their shots inside the arc away from Pauley Pavilion, ranking 155th in the nation. Overall, the Bruins rank 13th in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they fall to 31st in that metric on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan is one of three teams — joining Gonzaga and Baylor — who rank in the top ten in both Adjusted Offensive and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UCLA is outside the top ten in both categories. The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games played on a neutral court as an underdog in the 6.5 to 12 point range. Michigan has covered the point spread in 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 games on a neutral court — and they are 13-4-2 ATS in their last 19 games in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite. 25* CBB TBS-TV Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (660) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (659). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-30-21 |
USC +9 v. Gonzaga |
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66-85 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 49 m |
Show
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At 7:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (657) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (658). THE SITUATION: USC (25-7) has won six of their last seven games after their 82-68 win against Oregon as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Gonzaga (29-0) remained undefeated this season with their 83-65 win against Creighton as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: USC should enter this game with confidence — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road after a double-digit victory. The Trojans have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. While they held the Ducks to just 37.7% shooting, that was the highest field goal percentage that USC has allowed in this tournament. Andy Enfield’s team has held their last five opponents to just 36.1% shooting. With the 7’0 freshman Evan Mobley patrolling the middle, the Trojans’ defense can help them be a Giant Killer tonight. USC leads the nation by holding their opponents to just 41.5% shooting inside the arc. The Trojans are red-hot with their shooting as well — they have shot at least 50% from the field in four straight games. They have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after making at least 47% of their shots in four straight games. USC has two other characteristics of successful Giant Killers. First, they can make 3-pointers. The Trojans hit 36.0% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 60th nationally. Second, they get second-chance scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. USC is 12th in the nation by rebounding 35.4% of their missed shots. Gonzaga made 59.6% of their shots on Sunday in their win against the Bluejays which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. The Bulldogs are rolling — but the personality of the team suggests they are due for a letdown while perhaps being a bit overvalued by the betting public. Gonzaga has covered the point spread in all three of the tournament games, winning all three by at least 16 points. But the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning three in a row by at least 15 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their four games this season after going at least 3-1 ATS in a fora-game stretch. And while Gonzaga has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of the last 10 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Zags have scored at least 83 points in four straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: USC took some time to gel — but with four transfer players along with the freshman Mobley, they are peaking at the right time. USC has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. The Trojans have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games in the NCAA Tournament — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games played on a neutral court. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the USC Trojans (657) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (658). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-29-21 |
Arkansas v. Baylor -7 |
Top |
72-81 |
Win
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100 |
13 h 38 m |
Show
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At 9:57 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (654) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (653). THE SITUATION: Baylor (25-2) has won seven of their last eight games with their 62-51 win against Villanova as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Arkansas (25-6) has won three in a row with their 72-70 victory against Oral Roberts as an 11.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Baylor endured an outlier performance with their 3-point shooting on Saturday. Despite being (now) second in the nation with a 40.8% shooting percentage from the 3-point range this season, the Bears only made 3 of 19 (15.8%) shots from behind the arc against the Wildcats. Davion Mitchell missed all three of his shots from 3-point range despite entering the game as a 46% shooter from 3-point land. Jared Butler missed eight of his nine shots from behind the arc despite being a 39.9% shooter from distance. Don’t be surprised if Baylor ignites from behind the arc tonight. What is so impressive about this team is that they pulled away to win (and cover the point spread) anyways. Scott Drew had his team bypass 3-point shooting for scoring in the paint in the second half against the Villanova zone defenses — and they shot 53% in the final 20 minutes of the game. Even if the Bears’ 3s are not falling, they thrive in getting second-chance opportunities — they rank sixth in the nation by pulling down 36.8% of their missed shots. They also generate more scoring chances by forcing turnovers — they rank third in the nation in forcing turnovers in 24.8% of their opponent’s possessions. And Baylor plays stifling half-court defense that was on full display against the Wildcats as they held them to just 37.5% shooting in the second half with them missing all nine of their 3-point attempts. Throw away any remaining concerns about the Bears’ defense that struggled after a three-week COVID pause in February: Baylor has held their three opponents in this tournament to just 56.3 PPG on 41.3% shooting. This is a great sign for this team as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. The Bears have not allowed more than 63 points in this Big Dance — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. Baylor has won all three of their NCAA Tournament games by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning at least three in a row by 10 or more points. And in their last 6 games when playing their second game in three days, the Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. Arkansas once again skirted danger by falling behind by double-digits against the Golden Eagles before rallying for the win. The Razorbacks cannot afford to do that for the fourth straight time against this Baylor team — the Bears will start hitting more 3s and the lead will be 20. Arkansas was able to pull away from Colgate, but they survived two-point victories against Texas Tech and then Oral Roberts on Saturday. But the Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a win by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two in a row by three points or less. And in their last 10 games after winning three in a row, Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these games. The Razorbacks rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home, but they fall to 39th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency when on the road. Let’s put a microscope on that. Arkansas has the eighth-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, but they fall to 43rd in that metric on the road. Looking even closer, while the Razorbacks held their opponents to just 27.9% shooting from behind the arc at home, ranking 31st in the nation, their opponents make 39.1% of their 3-pointers on the road, ranking 317th nationally. Baylor is the wrong opponent for them playing outside Fayetteville. And while Arkansas wants to force turnovers with their full-court press, the Bears’ four-guard lineup only turns the ball over in 16.2% of their possessions away from Waco, ranking 42nd nationally. The Razorbacks only make 32.6% of their 3-pointers away from home, ranking 187th in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on a neutral court as an underdog. Baylor has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. 25* CBB Elite 8 Game of the Year with the Baylor Bears (654) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (653). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-29-21 |
Oregon State v. Houston -7.5 |
Top |
61-67 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 58 m |
Show
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At 7:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (656) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (655). THE SITUATION: Houston (27-3) won their tenth straight game with their 62-46 victory against Syracuse as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Oregon State (20-12) has won nine of their last ten games after their 65-58 upset win against Loyola-Chicago as a 7-point underdog on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston easily defeated the Orange despite making only 38.3% of their shots from the field and just 7 of their 26 shots from behind the arc.
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