03-09-20 |
St. Mary's v. BYU -3.5 |
Top |
51-50 |
Loss |
-106 |
6 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (894) minus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (893) in the semifinals of the West Coast Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: BYU (24-7) takes the court again tonight having won nine straight games after their 81-64 victory at Pepperdine back on February 29th as a 6.5-point favorite. Saint Mary’s (24-7) advanced to the semifinals of this tournament with their 89-82 victory over Pepperdine in double-overtime on Saturday as a 7-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory over a conference rival where they scored at least 80 points. The Cougars are an outstanding shooting basketball team — they are 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while leading the nation by making 42.0% of their shots from behind the arc. BYU made 53.1% of their shots in their victory over the Waves. That was the third straight game where the Cougars shot at least 48.4% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after making at least 47% of their shots in three straight games. BYU has also scored at least 81 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 80 points in three straight games. The Cougars make 49.2% of their shots away from home which results in them scoring 77.1 PPG — and they lead the nation with a 42.4% shooting percentage from 3-point land when playing on the road. BYU also leads the West Coast Conference by forcing turnovers in 19.0% of their opponent’s possessions. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored. Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. And while the Gaels have played four straight games Over the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing at least three straight Overs. BYU has a field goal percentage of 50.4% — and Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 52 road games against teams who make at least 48% of their shots. The Gaels also allow their opponents to make 35.4% of their shots from behind the arc when they are playing away from home. Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games when playing on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. The Gaels have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games played on a neutral court as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Saint Mary’s will be looking to avenge an 81-79 loss at BYU back on February 1st — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Game of the Year with BYU Cougars (894) minus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (893). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-08-20 |
North Dakota +6 v. South Dakota |
Top |
74-71 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the North Dakota Fighting Hawks (863) plus the points versus the South Dakota Coyotes (864) in the Quarterfinals of the Summit League conference tournament. THE SITUATION: North Dakota (12-17) has lost their last two games after losing at South Dakota last Saturday by a 77-67 score as a 7.5-point favorite. South Dakota (20-11) snapped a three-game losing streak with that victory. This game is being played on a neutral court in Sioux Falls.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: North Dakota made only 5 of their 10 free throw attempts in that game which is uncharacteristic for this team that ranks 22nd in the nation by making 76.6% of their free throws this season. The Fighting Hawks have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to shoot better than 53% of their free throws in their last game. This is a good shooting basketball team that ranks 25th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 52.4% when playing away from home on neutral courts or hostile environments. North Dakota is led by an All-League performer in guard Marlon Stewart. This team usually plays its best basketball in tournament situations. The Fighting Hawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 tournament contests — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games in the Summit League conference tournament. Furthermore, North Dakota has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in March. Additionally, the Fighting Hawks are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games played on a neutral court — and they are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games on a neutral court as an underdog. South Dakota does nail 39.0% of their 3-pointers — but North Dakota has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who shoot at least 37% from 3-point land. The Coyotes shot 54.2% from the field in their victory last Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. But this South Dakota team shoots only 45.1% when playing any from home. While the Coyotes rank 9th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.8%, that number drops to a 51.6% clip when they are playing away from home arena. South Dakota has failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. The Coyotes win over the Fighting Hawks finished below the 155 point total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And in their last 7 games played with at least seven days of rest, South Dakota has failed to cover the point spread 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: The Coyotes swept the two regular-season games with North Dakota this season as they also defeated them on the road by an 82-68 score on February 8th. This is considered a semi-home game for South Dakota with it being played in Sioux Falls — but it is still 116 miles away from their home campus in Vermillion. Look for the Fighting Hawks give the Coyotes their biggest fight in this single-elimination contest. 25* CBB Summit League Game of the Year with the North Dakota Fighting Hawks (863) plus the points versus the South Dakota Coyotes (864). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-07-20 |
Murray State v. Belmont UNDER 141 |
Top |
75-76 |
Loss |
-107 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Ohio Valley Conference championship game between the Murray State Racers (751) and the Belmont Bruins (752). THE SITUATION: Murray State (23-8) reached the finals of this tournament with their 73-61 win over Austin Peay as a 1-point favorite yesterday. Belmont (25-7) joined them yesterday as they won their eleventh straight game with their 60-50 win over Eastern Kentucky as a 13.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral court in Evansville, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Racers have played 9 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Murray State is playing excellent defense right now after holding the Governors to just 39.3% shooting. The Racers have held their last five opponents to just 39.6% shooting from the field which has resulted in only 61.0 PPG. Moving forward, Murray State has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 12 games as an underdog, the Racers have played 9 of these games Under the Total. Furthermore, they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Belmont has played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a victory over a conference opponent. They also have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Bruins made only 33.8% of their shots in that game — but they held Eastern Kentucky to just 29.9% shooting to win the game handily. Belmont has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 60 points. The Bruins have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a defensive struggle between the top two defenses in the Ohio Valley Conference in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. Murray State has played 7 of their last 8 games after fifteen games into the season Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Belmont has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Ohio Valley Conference championship game between the Murray State Racers (751) and the Belmont Bruins (752). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-07-20 |
Utah State v. San Diego State UNDER 133 |
Top |
59-56 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Mountain West Conference tournament championship game between the Utah State Aggies (741) and the San Diego State Aztecs (742). THE SITUATION: Utah State (25-8) has won two straight games as well as eight of their last nine games with their 89-82 win over Wyoming as a 15-point favorite yesterday. San Diego State (30-1) has won their last four games after suffering their first loss of the season with their 81-68 win over Boise State yesterday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies outlasted the Cowboys by shooting 56.1% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last eleven games. Utah State has then played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road after a point spread win. The Aggies have also played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. And while yesterday’s game flew Over the 136 point Total, Utah State has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. San Diego State has played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 80 points. The Aztecs rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season. In their fifteen games away from home this year, San Diego State has held these opponents to just 39.9% shooting and only 60.9 PPG. The Aztecs have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total that were played on a neutral court. San Diego State has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in tournament action. And while Utah State makes 46.1% of their shots this season, the Aztecs have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams who shoot at least 455 from the field. The Aggies are outscoring their opponents by +12.7 PPG — but San Diego State has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Utah State hopes to avenge an 80-68 loss to San Diego State back on February 1st — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when motivated by revenge. The Aggies have also played 6 straight games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. Expect a lower scoring game between the top two defensive teams (in terms of Adjusted Efficiency) in the conference). 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Mountain West Conference tournament championship game between the Utah State Aggies (741) and the San Diego State Aztecs (742). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-07-20 |
Kentucky +3.5 v. Florida |
Top |
71-70 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (615) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (616). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (24-6) saw their eight-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 81-73 upset loss at home to Tennessee despite being an 8.5-point favorite. Florida (19-11) has won two of their last three games after their 68-54 win at Georgia as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Kentucky allowed the Volunteers to make 52.8% of their shots which was not only the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage for them all season but also the worst defensive performance in their last twenty games. The Wildcats should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They also have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three games. Now Kentucky goes back on the road where they are 8-4 this season. The deeper analytics rank the Wildcats as the 6th best road team in the nation when looking at Adjusted Net Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Wildcats have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a win on the road against an SEC rival. The Gators have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after allowing no more than 60 points in their last contest. And while Florida has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Gators return home where they are 11-3 this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games on their home court. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 18 home games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: The Gators are looking to avenge a 65-59 loss at Kentucky back on February 22nd — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 25* CBB SEC Underdog of the Year with the Kentucky Wildcats (615) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (616). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-20 |
VCU v. Davidson UNDER 137 |
Top |
65-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Virginia Commonwealth Rams (861) and the Davidson Wildcats (862). THE SITUATION: VCU (18-12) has lost six of their last seven games with their 80-77 loss at home to Duquesne on Wednesday as a 5.5-point favorite. Davidson (15-14) has lost their last two contests after their 80-63 loss at Richmond on Wednesday as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: VCU has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread setback. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored
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03-06-20 |
Georgia Tech v. Clemson -4 |
Top |
65-62 |
Loss |
-108 |
17 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (854) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (853). THE SITUATION: Clemson (15-14) has lost two of their last three games with their 70-58 loss at Virginia Tech as a 1.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Georgia Tech (16-14) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 73-57 win over Pittsburgh on Wednesday as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Clemson looks to bounce-back from one of their worst games of the season against the Hokies. They made only 35.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. They also allowed Virginia Tech to make 54.2% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed all season. The Tigers allowed Florida State to make 50% of their shots in their previous game — but they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 home games after allowing two straight opponents to shoot at least 50% of their shots. Head coach Brad Brownell’s team has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with one or no days of rest. They return home where they are 11-5 this season with an average winning margin of +8.3 PPG. The Tigers play the 32nd stingiest defense in the nation when playing at home according to their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — they limit their guests to just 40.4% shooting which translates into only 62.6 PPG. Clemson should shoot better tonight — they have still made 47.9% of their shots over their last five games even after the difficult shooting effort against the Hokies. Clemson takes tons of 3s — but they do lead the ACC by making 53.2% of their shots inside the arc. Their efficiency inside the arc improves at home as they are making 56.5% of their 2-point shots which is the 26th best mark in the nation. Georgia Tech does hold their opponents to just 40.2% shooting — but the Tigers have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after fifteen games into the season when facing a team that does not allow their opponents to shoot better from 42% from the field. And while the Yellow Jackets shoot 45.3% from the field, Clemson has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who make at least 45% of their shots. Georgia Tech may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by at least 15 points. They made 49.1% of their shots in what was the best shooting effort in their last four games. They also held the Panthers to 30.9% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last fourteen games. But this will be the Yellow Jackets third game since Saturday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing their third game in seven days. Additionally, Georgia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two straight games against conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least three in a row against ACC foes. The Yellow Jackets go back on the road where they are 6-8 this season. Georgia Tech has covered the point spread in five of their last six games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 road games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Jackets have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 road games with the Total set in the 130 to 134.5 point range. Georgia Tech has two weaknesses that undermine the tough defense they play for head coach Josh Pastner. The Yellow Jackets foul too much to give their opponents freebies at the charity stripe — especially on the road. Georgia Tech ranks 315th in the nation with an opponent’s Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 44.4% when playing away from home. The Yellow Jackets also turn the ball over in 22.8% of their possessions which is 342nd in the nation — and Clemson forces turnovers in 19.9% of their opponent’s possessions which is a solid 105th best in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: Clemson will have revenge on their minds as well for this game after losing to Georgia Tech in Atlanta by a 68-59 score back on February 25th. Not only have the Tigers covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities to play with revenge but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when looking to avenge a loss where they did not score at least 60 points. 25* CBB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Clemson Tigers (854) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (853). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-20 |
UMKC v. Utah Valley OVER 136 |
Top |
61-51 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Missouri-Kansas City Kangaroos (679) and the Utah Valley State Wolverines (680). THE SITUATION: UMKC (15-14) has won three games in a row with their 80-58 win over Chicago State last Saturday as a 20-point favorite. Utah Valley State (11-18) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday in a 73-66 loss at Cal-Baptist where they were 6-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 24 of their last 33 road games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Kangaroos have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. UMKC is hot with its shooting right now as they are making 48.5% of their shots over their last five contests. Now they go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total. The Kangaroos have also played 8 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog. Utah Valley State made only 43.9% of their shots last week in their loss to Cal-Baptist — that was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. The Wolverines have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. And while Utah Valley State has lost five of their last seven games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. Over their last five games, they are still making 49.8% of their shots which has resulted in them averaging 76.8 PPG. They have also allowed 75.0 PPG over those last five games. They return home where they are scoring 74.9 PPG while allowing their opponents to average 70.4 PPG. Hosting this Kangaroos team will help their shooting as UMKC is 285th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.8% when they are playing on the road. Utah Valley State has played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Wolverines have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as a favorite or pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Utah Valley State makes only 30.3% of their shots from behind the arc — but the Kangaroos have played 14 of their last 17 games Ove the Total against opponents who do not shoot better than 31% from behind the 3-point line. 25* CBB Western Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Missouri-Kansas City Kangaroos (679) and the Utah Valley State Wolverines (680). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-20 |
Illinois State v. Drake -4.5 |
Top |
65-75 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Drake Bulldogs (712) minus the points versus the Illinois State Redbirds (711) in the first round of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Drake (18-13) has lost three straight games after their 70-43 loss at home to Northern Iowa as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Illinois State (10-20) has won two of their last three games with their 71-60 upset win at Evansville as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. The Missouri Valley Conference tournament is played on a neutral court at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Drake made only 30.2% of their shots which was the lowest shooting mark in their last twenty games. The Bulldogs made only 3 of their 21 shots from behind the arc (14.3%) in their loss to the Panthers — but the have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road after a game where they did not make at least 20% of their 3-point attempts. Drake should shoot better tonight as they have made 36.3% of their shots from downtown in their last ten games away from home in games played on neutral courts and true road games. The Bulldogs should respond with a strong effort as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a double-digit loss which includes them covering the point spread in those last four opportunities. Drake has been a reliable team when playing on neutral courts as well as they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games on a neutral court — and they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games played on a neutral court when favored. Illinois State played their best defensive game of the season against the Purple Aces by holding them to just 32.8% shooting. But the Redbirds are only 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. They stay on the road where they are just 1-14 this season with an average losing margin of -10.4 PPG. Illinois State allows their opponents to make 47.2% of their shots when playing away from home which results in them scoring 75.5 PPG. They also make just 42.2% of their shots in those fifteen games away from Normal. The Redbirds have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral court. Illinois State is also just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games when playing as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Drake will be looking to avenge a 57-53 upset loss at Illinois State where they were 1.5-point underdogs back on February 22nd. The Bulldogs play sound fundamental basketball as they made 52.9% of their shots inside the arc which is 2nd best in the MVC. They also hold their opponents to just 46.0% shooting inside the arc which is 2nd best in the Missouri Valley Conference. Illinois State may struggle to score as they make only 45.9% of their shots inside the arc which is 10th in the conference. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year with the Drake Bulldogs (712) minus the points versus the Illinois State Redbirds (711). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-04-20 |
Georgetown v. Creighton -12.5 |
Top |
76-91 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Creighton Bluejays (778) minus the points versus the Georgetown Hoyas (777). THE SITUATION: Creighton (22-7) saw their five-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 91-71 upset loss at St. John’s as a 5.5-point favorite. Georgetown (15-14) has lost four games in a row after their 66-63 loss at home against Xavier as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUEJAYS MINUS THE POINTS: Creighton played one of their worst games of the season after perhaps enjoying their most positive stint of the year during their previous five-game run. The Bluejays allowed the Red Storm to make 55% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last twenty-three games. They also made only 37.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. But Creighton has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 15 points. The Bluejays have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread defeat. Creighton has still won nine of their last eleven games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning at least six or seven of their last eight games. The Bluejays return home where they are 16-1 this season with an average winning margin of +15.7 PPG. Creighton holds their opponents to just 39.7% shooting from the field — and they also make 49.5% of their shots at home which translates into 83.1 PPG. The Bluejays have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on their home court with four victories all by at least 11 points. Creighton has also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 home games against teams who do not have a winning percentage better than 40% on the road. Additionally, the Bluejays have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 150 to 154.5 point range. This team ranks 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency according to KenPom — and the analytics also say they have the best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home. Creighton has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games as a favorite in the 6.5 to 12 point range — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. Georgetown has been reduced to an eight-man rotation after four programs left the program in December. Head coach Patrick Ewing’s team will be furthered shorthanded tonight with Omer Yertseven and Mac McClung both doubtful with ankle and foot injuries. Those two players are the Hoyas’ top two possession and shot takers on the team — so their potential loss is devastating. As it is, Georgetown has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They are making only 41% of their shots over their last five games which have resulted in them scoring only 67.8 PPG. Now they go back on the road where they are just 4-6 — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road. This team struggles in defending the perimeter as they rank 302nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 35.9% of their shots from behind the arc — and they allow their home hosts to nail 37.5% of their shots from 3-point land which is 298th in the nation. Creighton is 5th in the nation by making 42.1% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. The Hoyas have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Furthermore, Georgetown has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Creighton will be motivated to avenge an 83-80 loss at Georgetown back on January 15th. The Bluejays have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games when avenging a narrow loss by 3 points or less. 25* CBB Big East Game of the Year with the Creighton Bluejays (778) minus the points versus the Georgetown Hoyas (777). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-04-20 |
Texas-San Antonio v. Old Dominion OVER 143 |
Top |
59-84 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (801) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (802). THE SITUATION: UTSA (13-16) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 66-59 victory over UAB as a 3-point favorite. Old Dominion (12-17) also ended their two-game losing streak when they defeated Florida Atlantic on Sunday by an 85-80 score as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: UTSA has played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a victory at home against a conference rival. The Roadrunners have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, UTSA has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Toal after holding their last opponent to no more than 60 points — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Roadrunners held the Blazers to just 36.1% shooting — but now they go back on the road where they allow their home hosts to make 46.5% of their shots which results in them scoring 82.9 PPG. Defense is an issue for this team as they rank 290th in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency along with just 11th in conference play. UTSA has played 7 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Roadrunners have played 11 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. UTSA is a solid offensive team that scores 77.8 PPG while averaging 65 shots per game along with 10 made 3-pointers per contest. Old Dominion has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who score at least 77 PPG. The Monarchs have all played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who average at least 62 shots per game — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who make at least 8 shots from behind the arc per game. Old Dominion committed only eight personal fouls in their win over the Owls on Sunday with FAU getting whistled for 19 personal fouls — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after being called for at least 10 personal fouls than their opponent in their last game. The Monarchs have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games against Conference USA foes. Now this team stays at home where they are 9-4 this season. Old Dominion has played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% on the road. The Monarchs have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams who are winning 40-49% of their games this season.
FINAL TAKE: Old Dominion will be looking to avenge an 85-81 loss at home to UTSA back on February 6th — and the Monarchs have played 18 of their last 21 home games when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (801) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (802). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-03-20 |
Purdue v. Iowa -5 |
Top |
77-68 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (648) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (647). THE SITUATION: Iowa (20-9) has won three of their last four games with their 77-68 victory at home against Penn State as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (15-14) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 57-49 win at against Indiana where they were 6.5-point favorites on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa should build off their momentum as they are 7-3-3 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they are 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread victory. The Hawkeyes stay at home where they are 14-1 this season with an average winning margin of +14.2 PPG. Iowa makes 47% of their shots on their home court which has resulted in them scoring 81.7 PPG. The Hawkeyes are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Additionally, Iowa is 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 home games when favored — and they are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Hawkeyes rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. And while the Boilermakers launch 21 shots from behind the arc this season, Iowa has covered the point spread in 8 straight home games who take at least 21 shots from 3-point land per game. Purdue played their best defensive game of the season last week by limiting the Hoosiers to just 25.4% shooting from the field. But the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on the road after a victory at home against a Big Ten rival. Purdue has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. And while the Boilermakers are 14-4 at home this season, they are just 4-10 when playing on the road. They are making just 37.4% of their shots on the road which has resulted in only 60.0 PPG. Purdue makes only 28.1% of their 3-pointers and just 43.1% of their shots inside the arc on the road which ranks 318th and 335th in the nation. Their 42.8% effective field goal percentage on the road is just 338th in the country. These struggles with shooting the basketball have contributed to the Boilermakers going just 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 road games — and they are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on their home court. Purdue has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. The Boilermakers defeated Indiana despite them making only 37.5% of their shots. Purdue has a low 39.7% field goal percentage over their last five games — it will be difficult to keep up with this Iowa team that is highly efficient on offense.
FINAL TAKE: Iowa will be looking to avenge a brutal 104-68 loss at Purdue back on February 5th. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (648) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (647). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-02-20 |
Idaho State v. Weber State OVER 145 |
Top |
78-70 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (865) and the Weber State Wildcats (866). THE SITUATION: Idaho State (6-20) has lost twelve straight games after their 89-76 loss at home to Portland State as a 4-point underdog last Thursday. Weber State (11-17) has lost three of their last four games after their 89-83 upset loss to Portland State as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by double-digits. Idaho State has also played 7 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bengals have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after losing at least two in a row — and they have played 18 of their last 22 games Over the Total after losing at least fifteen of their last twenty games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to nail 50.7% of their shots which has produced 74.5 PPG. Idaho State has played 6 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 19 of their last 26 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Bengals have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog. Weber State has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and this includes them playing four straight Overs after a victory. Furthermore, the Wildcats have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. Weber State stays at home where they are scoring 80.8 PPG on 49.4% shooting from the field. The Wildcats have played 5 straight home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% on the road. Furthermore, the Over is 10-4-1 in Weber State’s last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% overall.
FINAL TAKE: Idaho State is just 318th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 347th in the country by allowing their opponents to make 56.0% of their shots inside the arc. The Bengals have a defensive field goal percentage of 48.3% — and the Wildcats have played 15 of their last 20 home games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45% or higher. Weber State is 3rd in the Big Sky Conference with a 53.3% of their shots inside the arc — they should score plenty of 2-pointers against this Idaho State team. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (865) and the Weber State Wildcats (866). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-29-20 |
Michigan State v. Maryland UNDER 138 |
Top |
78-66 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (705) and the Maryland Terrapins (706). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (19-9) has won two straight games with their 78-70 win at home over Iowa as a 9.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Maryland (23-5) has won ten of their last eleven contests with their 74-73 win at Minnesota as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spartans have seen the Under go a decisive 39-16-3 in their last 58 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a victory over a Big Ten rival. Michigan State has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Now Sparty goes back on the road where they are just 8-6 this season while making only 43.6% of their shots which is translating into just 70.2 PPG. Michigan State sees their effective field goal percentage of 53.9% drop to a 50.3% mark when they are playing away from their home at the Breslin Center in East Lansing — that ranks 91st in the nation. But the Spartans’ outstanding defense does travel as they hold their home hosts to just 38.7% shooting which results in only 67.6 PPG. The Under is 14-6-1 in their last 21 games on the road — and the Under is also 18-7-1 in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Under is 22-8-1 in Michigan State’s last 31 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, in the Spartans’ last 13 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, Michigan State has seen 11 of these games finish Under the Total. Maryland allowed the Golden Gophers to make 45.6% of their shots on Wednesday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last eight contests. The Terrapins have a bad habit of starting slowly which requires them to dig themselves out of big holes — they had to rally from a 16-point halftime deficit to defeat Minnesota. The Terrapins average only 33.4 points in the first half this season with that number dropping to 31.8 points in the first 20 minutes in conference games. They are making only 43% of their shots at home with an effective field goal percentage of 49.1% which ranks 243rd in the nation. Overall, their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the season ranks 35th in the nation — but that number plummets to 73rd in the country when they are playing on their home court in College Park. But Maryland holds their guests to just 36.7% shooting which results in a mere 59.8 PPG when they are playing at home. The Terrapins have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s. Maryland has also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These are two of the best defensive teams in the nation with the Spartans and Terrapins ranking 13th and 12th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency respectively. Maryland holds their opponents to just 39.1% shooting — and Sparty has played 8 straight games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or less. And while Michigan State out-rebounds their opponents by +7.6 RPG, the Terrapins have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against opponents who out-rebound their opponents by at least +7.0 RPG. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (705) and the Maryland Terrapins (706). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-28-20 |
Georgia Southern v. Georgia State -5.5 |
Top |
79-70 |
Loss |
-108 |
19 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (852) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (851). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (18-11) has lost two straight games after their 86-78 loss at Texas State last Saturday as a 4-point underdog. Georgia Southern (17-12) snapped their two-game losing streak on Saturday with their 81-61 upset victory at UT-Arlington as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia State should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss on the road. The Panthers have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 85 points in their last game. Now after being on a road underdog in their last two games, they return home where they are 11-1 this season with an average winning margin of +16.9 PPG. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after being an underdog in two straight games. The Panthers score a healthy 84.2 PPG on their home court while limiting their guests to just 37.9% shooting from the field which has translated into only 67.3 PPG. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 5 straight home games with the Total set in the 150 to 159.5 point range. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games as a favorite of no more than 6 points. Georgia Southern made 52.8% of their shots on Saturday in what was the best shooting effort in their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where they scored at least 80 points in their last game. They also held the Mavericks to just 31.8% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last eleven games. But the Eagles have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of the last 7 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset win against a Sun Belt Conference foe. Furthermore, Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 15 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a double-digit win over a Sun Belt rival. Now the Eagles stay on the road where they are just 7-9 this season where they are making only 42.7% of their shots from the field. Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after fifteen games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year with the Georgia State Panthers (852) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (851). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-20 |
Arizona v. USC UNDER 140 |
Top |
48-57 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (651) and the USC Trojans (652). THE SITUATION: Arizona (19-8) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 73-72 upset loss at home to Oregon as a 5.5-point favorite. USC (19-9) has lost their last two games with their 75-69 loss at Utah as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats allowed the Ducks to shoot 42.6% from the field which was the best shooting effort from an opponent in their last four games. Arizona should tighten up on defense — they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. The Wildcats rank 21st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that mark rises to them being the 5th best team in the nation when playing on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Arizona holds their home hosts to just 39.8% shooting which is resulting in them allowing only 67.7 PPG in their eleven road games. The Wildcats make only 28.2% of their 3-pointers on the road which is 313rd in the nation — and their effective field goal percentage of 44.3% on the road ranks 318th. Arizona has played 4 of there last 5 road games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as the favorite. USC has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Trojans have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after a point spread defeat. USC allowed the Utes to make 48.2% of their shots on Sunday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. The Trojans have the 40th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that ranking has improved to 31st best in the country in that metric over their last ten games. USC has held their last five opponents to just 37.6% shooting from the field and now they return home after playing their last two games on the road. The Trojans have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. USC is 11-2 at home while holding their guests to scoring 64.5 PPG on 39.5% shooting from the field. But USC only makes 43.2% of their shots at home given their 47.5% shooting percentage inside the arc which is 285th in the nation. The Under is 39-18-1 in the Trojans’ last 58 home games — and they have played 7 storage home games Under the Total in February. Furthermore, the Trojans have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: USC will be looking to avenge an 85-80 loss at Arizona back on February 6th. The Trojans have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (651) and the USC Trojans (652). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-20 |
TCU v. Iowa State -2.5 |
Top |
59-65 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (606) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (605). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (11-16) has lost two straight games after their 87-57 loss at home to Texas Tech as a 5-point underdog on Saturday. TCU (15-12) has won two of their last three games with their 67-60 upset victory over West Virginia as a 5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa State played one of their worst games of the season on Saturday against one of the hottest teams in the nation in that Red Raiders team. The Cyclones shot just 35.8% from the field which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last ten games. Iowa State also allowed Texas Tech to make 57.1% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last twenty-two contests. The Cyclones have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. Iowa State suffered a terrible blow a few weeks ago with the season-ending injury to their best player, Tyrese Halliburton. Yet Steve Promm’s team immediately responded with an 81-52 blowout win at home against Texas in their first game without Halliburton before losing at Kansas and then at home to the Red Raiders which are two teams that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks in the top-15 in the nation according to his numbers. This team should respond with a strong effort in this winnable game. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least 20 points to a fellow Big 12 rival. And while Iowa State has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after failing to cover the point spread in three of the last four games. The Cyclones are 10-5 at home with an average winning margin of +7.3 PPG while limiting their opponents to just 41.2% shooting from the field. They have covered 4 straight home games as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when favored by up to 6 points. And in their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, Iowa State has covered the point spread in 4 of these contests. TCU made 44.4% of their shots in their upset win over the Mountaineers which was the best shooting mark in their last eight games. They also held West Virginia to just 40.3% shooting which was also the best defensive effort in their last twelve games. But the Horned Frogs have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road after a win over a conference opponent. Additionally, TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. Now the Horned Frogs go back on the road where they are just 2-8 this season. While TCU ranks 90th in the nation in Net Adjusted Efficiency overall, they plummet to 206th in the nation with their Net Adjusted Efficiency when playing on the road. They rank 351st in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 58.2% when playing on the road — their home hosts are making 47.4% of their shots overall which has resulted in 70.6 PPG. They also have an effective field goal percentage of 42.4% on the road which is 343rd in the nation while making only 37.5% of their shots which is producing just 56.9 PPG. The Horned Frogs are also making only 38.8% of their shots over their last five games which is why they are averaging just 55.8 PPG. TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on the road — and they ave failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games on the road against teams who are winning at least 60 % of their games at home. The Horned Frogs are also just 6-19-2 ATS in the last 27 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Head coach Jamie Dixon only uses eight players in his rotation — and TCU may be without starting guard Francisco Farabello who is questionable with a concussion. This has been a disappointing season for the Cyclones — and their postseason aspirations are likely gone with Halliburton’s injury — but look for them to play a good game after their embarrassing loss to Texas Tech. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPNU Game of the Year with the Iowa State Cyclones (606) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (605). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-20 |
Oklahoma State v. Kansas OVER 134.5 |
Top |
58-83 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys (877) and the Kansas Jayhawks (878). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (14-13) has won three of their last four games after their 83-66 win over Oklahoma on Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite. Kansas (24-3) has won twelve straight games with their 64-61 upset win at Baylor as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the total after a straight-up win. Oklahoma State has also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games against fellow Big 12 opponents. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. They also have played 6 of tiger last 9 road games as a double-digit underdog. The Cowboys will be challenged by the outstanding defense that this Jayhawks team plays. Kansas is limiting their opponents to averaging just 60.7 PPG — but Oklahoma State has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against opponents who do not allow more than 64 PPG. The Cowboys rank 98th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency this season — but they have the 46th best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency mark over their last ten games. Kansas has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a narrow victory by 3 points or less — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Jayhawks victory over the Bears fell below the 131 point total, they have then played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Kansas has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points. Kansas returns home where they are 12-1 this season while making 49.6% of their shots which is resulting in 78.7 PPG. The Jayhawks have the 9th best offense in the nation based on Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have the 2nd highest Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on their home court. Kansas makes 58.3% of their shots inside the arc when playing at home which is the 11th best mark in the country. Oklahoma State is vulnerable on the defensive end of the court as they rank 9th in the Big 12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they allow their home hosts to shoot 50% of their shots inside the arc on the road which is the 138th worst mark in the nation. The Over is 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Jayhawks have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 18 of their last 28 home games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite. Kansas has also played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 130 to 139.5 point range. And while the Cowboys hold their opponents to 40% shooting this season, the Jayhawks have played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against opponents who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas won the first meeting between these two teams back on January 27th by a 65-50 score. Oklahoma State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on their home court. 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys (877) and the Kansas Jayhawks (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-20 |
Stanford v. Washington State UNDER 135 |
Top |
75-57 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (865) and the Washington State Cougars (866). THE SITUATION: Stanford (17-9) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 72-64 upset win at Washington as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday. Washington State (14-13) has lost three straight games with their 66-57 upset loss to California as a 6.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinal has seen the Under go 8-3-2 in their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Stanford has also played 8 of their last 11 games after an upset loss. The Cardinal is one of the best defensive teams in the nation as they rank 6th in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank 7th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They hold their hosts to just 42% shooting from inside the arc which helps them post an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.5% — both those numbers are 3rd best in the nation for teams playing on the road. The Under is 9-4-2 in Stanford’s last 15 games on the road — and the Under is also 9-4-1 in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better when playing at home. Furthermore, the Under is 3-0-1 in the Cardinal’s last 4 road games as a favorite — and they have also seen the Under go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games as a favorite. Washington State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Cougars have played 4 straight games Under the Total after losing two in a row — and they have played a decisive 36 of their last 51 games at home Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. They made only 29.8% of their shots against the Golden Bears after shooting just 28.6% from the field in their previous game against USC. Over their last five games, Washington State is shooting just 35.8% which has resulted in only 63.8 PPG. They stay at home where they are making just 40.9% of their shots while ranking 302nd in the nation with a 46.4% field goal percentage inside the arc. Overall, the Cougars have an effective field goal percentage of 46.6% when playing at home which is the 313th lowest mark in the nation. Moving forward, the Cougars have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: To make matters worse, they may be without their point guard Isaac Bonton who is questionable with a leg injury. Boston leads the team in touches when he is on the court while ranking second in shots — so the Washington State offense will likely suffer if he is not able to play or if he is hindered with his leg. 25* CBB Sunday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (865) and the Washington State Cougars (866). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-20 |
Southern Utah v. Weber State OVER 136 |
Top |
71-82 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between Southern Utah Thundercats (771) and the Weber State Wildcats (772). THE SITUATION: Southern Utah (14-12) has lost three straight games after their 68-66 loss at Northern Colorado as a 7-point underdog on Thursday. Weber State (10-16) has lost their last three games with their 77-63 loss at Montana State as a 5-point underdog last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Thunderbirds have played 7 of their last 10 games over the total after a loss on the road by 3 points or less. They also have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Southern Utah has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing three straight games to Big Sky opponents. Now the Thunderbirds go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Southern Utah has not made more than three shots from behind the arc in two straight games — but they have then played 22 of their last 30 games Over the Total after failing to make more than three shots from 3-point range in two straight games. They now face a Wildcats team that is 328th in the nation by allowing their opponents to nail 37.3% of their shots from downtown. Weber State allows their opponents to make 45.1% of their shots this season — and the Thunderbirds have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who allow their opponents to make at least 45% of their shots. Southern Utah has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games. Weber State has played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. The Wildcats have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after losing two straight games. They return home where they are 7-4 while making 49.4% of their shots which is generating 80.5 PPG. Weber State has played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as an underdog. The Wildcats’ play on the defensive end of the court has waned as of late. They have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.9% of their shots which has resulted in them averaging 71.0 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Southern Utah will be looking to avenge a 75-65 upset loss at home to Weber State back on January 30th. The Thunderbirds have played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between Southern Utah Thundercats (771) and the Weber State Wildcats (772). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-21-20 |
Wisc-Milwaukee +4.5 v. Oakland |
Top |
68-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (871) plus the points versus the Oakland Grizzlies (872). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (12-14) looks to rebound from their 94-90 upset loss to Wisconsin-Green Bay last Saturday as a 2-point favorite. Oakland (10-17) has won their last two games with their 72-64 win over Youngstown State as a 4-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee allowed the Phoenix to make 56.9% of their shots last Saturday which was the worst defensive effort of the season. The Panthers should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a Horizon League rival. Milwaukee has also covered the point spread in a decisive 34 of their last 52 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots — and this includes them covering the point spread in three of these last four situations. Even after that defensive effort last week, the Panthers have held their last five opponents to just 40.4% shooting from the field. They go back on the road where they have won their last two contests — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 40 road games with the Total set in the 135 to 139.5 point range. Milwaukee has also covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 road games after scoring at least 85 points in their last game — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Panthers are 2nd in the Horizon League by forcing turnovers in 20.5% of their opponent’s possessions — and this is an area of weakness for the Grizzlies because they rank 7th in the conference by turning the ball over in 19.6% of their conference possessions. Milwaukee is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Oakland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on their home court. They stay at home for the third straight game where they are getting outscored this season despite their 6-5 record. But the advanced metrics rank the Grizzlies as 308th in the nation in home-court advantage when it comes to net Adjusted Efficiency — and Milwaukee ranks 202nd in the nation in net Adjusted Efficiency when playing on the road. Oakland has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games against Horizon League opponents. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 home games against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after fifteen games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. Oakland has also been an unreliable favorite as they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 47 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee plays at an up-tempo as they average 62 shots per game — and the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games against teams who average at least 62 shots per contest. 25* CBB Horizon League Underdog of the Year with the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (871) plus the points versus the Oakland Grizzlies (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-20 |
South Alabama +3 v. Appalachian State |
Top |
78-70 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the South Alabama Jaguars (601) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (602). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (16-11) has won four straight games with their 50-49 win over UL-Monroe last Saturday as a 10-point favorite. Appalachian State (15-12) has won three of their last four games with their 62-57 upset win at Georgia Southern last Saturday as a 6-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: South Alabama won that game last week despite making only 31.6% of their shots which was the lowest shooting mark for them all season. The Jaguars survived that game due to holding the Warhawks to just 31.5% shooting. South Alabama has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. The Jaguars have not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in a decisive 42 of their last 65 games on the road after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. South Alabama has held its last five opponents to just 38.7% shooting from the field. Now the Jaguars go back on the road where they are 7-6 this season. South Alabama forces turnovers — and this attribute travels. The Jaguars 3rd in the Sun Belt Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.4% of their opponent’s possessions — and that mark improves to a 20.5% clip when they are playing on the road which is 53rd best in the nation. This is an area of vulnerability for the Mountaineers as they are 7th in the Sun Belt by turning the ball over in 20.0% of their conference possessions — and that number worsens to a 20.9% clip where they are playing at home which is the 306th worst mark in the nation. South Alabama is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. The Jaguars are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games as a dog. Appalachian State may be due for a letdown as they are just 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games after a point spread victory. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. The Mountaineers return home where they are 8-4 this season but with a small average winning margin of +4.4 PPG. Appalachian State makes only 41.8% of their shots at home which results in just 68.7 PPG — they also rank 310th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on their home court. The Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 home games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range. Appalachian State has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when favored
|
02-19-20 |
Kansas State v. Texas Tech OVER 128.5 |
Top |
62-69 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (839) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (840). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (9-16) has lost five straight games with their 68-57 loss at TCU on Saturday as a 3-point underdog. Texas Tech (16-9) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 73-70 upset loss at Oklahoma State as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats held the Horned Frogs to just 44.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Kansas State has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Wildcats stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Kansas State has played 19 of their last 26 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 9.5 to 12 points. The Wildcats have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog overall. And in their last 15 games with the Total set at no higher than 129.5, Kansas State has played 12 of these games Over the Total. Texas Tech has splayed 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a loss by three points or less — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Red Raiders return home where they are 12-2 this season while making 48.1% of their shots which has generated 76.6 PPG. Texas Tech has played 6 straight home games Over the Total with the number set no higher than 129.5. They also have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas State will be looking to avenge a 77-63 loss at home to Texas Tech back on January 14th — and the Wildcats have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (839) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-18-20 |
Oklahoma State v. West Virginia -10 |
Top |
47-65 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (616) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (615). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (18-7) has lost three straight games after their 70-59 loss at Baylor on Saturday as a 5-point underdog. Oklahoma State (13-12) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 73-70 upset victory at home against Texas Tech as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS MINUS THE POINTS: West Virginia allowed the Bears to make 51.8% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. The Mountaineers remain the second best team in the nation in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least three straight games. West Virginia should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they are 12-1 this season with an average winning margin of +17.3 PPG. The Mountaineers hold their guests to just 36.4% shooting from the field which translates into only 59.2 PPG. West Virginia has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. While the Mountaineers make 45.9% of their shots at home, they do a few other things quite well to give them extra scoring opportunities. West Virginia leads the nation by pulling down 40.3% of their missed shots — and the Cowboys are 202nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 28.5% of their missed shots. The Mountaineers also lead the Big 12 by forcing turnovers in 24.6% of their opponent’s possessions — and Oklahoma State is 168th in the nation by turning the ball over in 19.0% of their possessions. The Cowboys may be due for a letdown after pulling off two straight upset wins as they also knocked off Kansas State on the road as a 3-point underdog before pulling off the same feat against the Red Raiders. But Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning three of their last four games. They stat on the road where they are 6-6 despite making only 43.6% of their shots from the field. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 9.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys will be looking to avenge a 55-41 loss at home to the Mountaineers back on January 6th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the West Virginia Mountaineers (616) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (615). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-17-20 |
Idaho v. Portland State -10.5 |
Top |
69-90 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Portland State Vikings (868) minus the points versus the Idaho Vandals (867). THE SITUATION: Portland State (12-14) has lost two of their last three games with their 89-81 upset loss to Eastern Washington as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Idaho (7-17) had lost eight of their last nine games before they upset Eastern Washington last Thursday as a 15-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Portland State should respond with a strong effort as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They stay at home where they are 7-3 this season with an average winning margin of +10.0 PPG. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Portland State has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. The Vikings shoot 46.5% on their home court but there are a few things they do that give them extra possessions which helps them get to their 83.6 PPG scoring average on their home court even their shots are not falling. Portland State is 8th in the nation by pulling down 36.1% of their missed shots — and that mark rises to a 37.4% mark when they are playing at home. The Vikings are also 3rd in the Big Sky Conference by forcing turnovers in 19.6% of their opponent’s possessions. This is an area of weakness for the Vandals as they are last in the Big Sky by turning the ball over in 20.8% of their conference possessions. That mark rises to a 21.5% clip when they are playing on the road which is 272nd in the country. Idaho has not been very consistent after victories as they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a win over a conference rival. Additionally, the Vandals have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset win as a road underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a win on the road. Furthermore, Idaho has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. They made 50% of their shots against Eastern Washington after shooting 52.3% from the field in their previous game against Montana — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after shooting at least 50% from the field in two straight games. The Vandals stay on the road where they are just 3-9 this season with an average losing margin of -7.0 PPG. Idaho scores only 62.7 PPG on the road while ranking 307th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Vandals are also last in the Big Sky in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.
FINAL TAKE: Portland State will be looking to avenge a 72-61 upset loss at Idaho despite being a 6.5-point underdog in that game. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Game of the Year with the Portland State Vikings (868) minus the points versus the Idaho Vandals (867). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-15-20 |
Arizona v. Stanford +4.5 |
Top |
69-60 |
Loss |
-105 |
14 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Stanford Cardinal (808) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (807). THE SITUATION: Stanford (16-8) has lost three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 74-69 upset loss at home to Arizona State on Thursday. Arizona (17-7) has won five of their last six contests with their 68-52 win at California on Thursday as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINAL PLUS THE POINTS: Stanford shot a healthy 52% from the field on Thursday — but it was their defense that let them down as they allowed the Sun Devils to make 54.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. The Cardinal is one of the best defensive teams in the nation — they rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also topping the Pac-12 in that metric. Stanford should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing with one day of rest. The Cardinal has also covered the point spread in 28 of their last 42 home games after losing at least two games in a row. They stay at home where they are 12-3 this season with an average winning margin of +12.2 PPG. Stanford is 2nd in the Pac-12 with an effective field goal percentage of 52.6% — and they rank 38th in the nation with an eFG of 55.7% on their home court. Overall, the Cardinal has a field goal percentage of 48.9% at home which has translated into 71.9 PPG — and they are limiting their guests to just 39.6% shooting what results in only 59.7 PPG. Stanford has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 40 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games against Pac-12 foes. Furthermore, the Cardinal has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 home games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games as an underdog getting no more than 6 points. Arizona made 48.1% of their shots on Thursday in their win over the Golden Bears which was the best shooting mark in their last thirteen games. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win on the road. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games when playing with one day of rest. The Wildcats are not playing their best basketball as of late. They have allowed their last five opponents to make 43.5% of their shots which is well above their opponent’s 39.4% field goal percentage for the season. And while they are averaging 78.3 PPG this season on 46.1% shooting, those numbers have dropped to just a 69.2 PPG scoring clip over their last five games on 39.3% shooting. Now this team stays on the road where they make only 44.6% of their shots inside the arc which drags down their effective field goal percentage to 45.0% when on the road — those marks rank 279th an 287th in the nation. Arizona averages 78.3 PPG this season — but Stanford has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games against teams who score at least 77 PPG. And while the Cardinal has an opponent’s field goal percentage of 39.3%, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 42%.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games against teams who are winning 60 to 80% of their games —and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last thirteen games against opponents who are winning at least 60% of their contests. Stanford will be without their 6’9 junior forward Oscar Da Silva who is out with a head injury — but they do have 6’9 Jaiden Delaire and 6’10 Lukas Kisunas who are regular rotational players off the bench who will be asked to play more in this contest. It is also Da Silva’s absence which explains why the Cardinal are underdogs in the 4-point range despite the analytics projecting a 1-point win for the Wildcats. 25* CBB Pac-12 Underdog of the Year with the Stanford Cardinal (808) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (807). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-20 |
Rider v. Siena UNDER 147.5 |
Top |
64-73 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Rider Broncs (857) and the Siena Saints (858). THE SITUATION: Rider (14-9) has won five of their last six games with their 73-58 victory over Niagara last Saturday as a 9-point favorite. Siena (11-10) has won four of their last five games with their 65-49 win over Fairfield as an 8-point favorite last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Rider has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total after a victory. The Broncs won that game over the Purple Eaters by making 54.5% of their shots which was the best shooting effort of their season. But now Rider goes back on the road where they are making just 42.3% of their shots. The Broncs have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road. Rider is playing their best defense of the year at this point of the season after holding Niagara to just 33.3% shooting on Sunday. The Broncs have held their last five opponents to just 39% shooting which has resulted in just 64.6 PPG which is -6.0 PPG below their season average. Rider will be challenged to defend their defensive glass against this Saints team that leads the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference by pulling down 34.5% of their missed shots. The Broncs are 43rd in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding 24.5% of their missed shots. Rider has held their last two opponents to just 5 and 7 offensive rebounds in their last two games — and they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 offensive rebounds in two straight games. And while Siena averages a +4.6 net Rebounding Per Game margin this year, the Broncs have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who are outrebounding their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG. The Saints have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Siena has also played 8 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. The Saints stay at home where they have held their guests to just 41.2% shooting which has generated only 64.7 PPG. Siena has played 21 of their last 28 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Siena is also playing their best defense of the season after limiting the Stags to just 30.2% shooting last Friday. The Saints have limited their last five opponents to only 38% shooting which has resulted in just 63.2 PPG. Siena has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have then played 9 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games.
FINAL TAKE: Siena will be looking to avenge an 85-77 loss at Rider back on January 5th — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing with revenge where they allowed at least 75 points. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Rider Broncs (857) and the Siena Saints (858). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-13-20 |
SIU-Edwardsville v. Eastern Illinois OVER 140.5 |
Top |
76-74 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville Cougars (651) and the Eastern Illinois Panthers (652). THE SITUATION: SIU-Edwardsville (6-19) snapped their four-game losing streak last Saturday with their 83-75 upset victory against Eastern Kentucky as a 2-point underdog. Eastern Illinois (12-12) snapped their three-game losing streak on Saturday with their 71-65 win over Morehead State as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL:
|
02-08-20 |
Purdue v. Indiana -1.5 |
Top |
74-62 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (642) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (641). THE SITUATION: Indiana (15-7) has lost three straight games after their 68-59 loss at Ohio State last Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog. Purdue (13-10) has won three of their last four games after their 104-68 blowout win at home against Iowa as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Boilermakers are likely due for a big emotional letdown after playing their best game of the season. Purdue nailed 19 shots from behind the arc en route to a 63.1% shooting percentage which was — by far — their best offensive effort of the season. But the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Additionally, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a blowout victory by at least 30 points. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after a win over a Big Ten opponent — and they have generally been inconsistent this season as they failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up victory. In terms of Adjusted Efficiency, the Boilermakers rank number one in the nation when playing at home in Mackey Arena — but they plummet to just 96th in the nation in that metric when playing on the road. Purdue is 3-8 away from home with an average losing margin of -5.3 PPG. Offense is the biggest weakness of this team — they rank 12th in the Big Ten by scoring 68.8 PPG while also ranking 12th with their meager 65.8% free throw percentage along with their 45.0% shooting mark inside the arc. Their shooting is even worse when they are playing on the road where they are making just 36.5% of their shots which is translating into just 59.0 PPG. The Boilermakers are 345th in the nation on the road with an effective field goal percentage of 41.5% due to their 26.5% shooting from behind the arc (335th in the nation) and their 42.8% shooting clip inside the arc (317th in the nation). Purdue is 0-4-1 ATS in the last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games in Big Ten play. The Boilermakers are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 road games with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. Indiana is desperate for a victory — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a loss on the road to a Big Ten opponent. The Hoosiers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. Now after playing their last two games on the road where they were the underdog, they return home where they are 12-2 this season with an average winning margin of +13.9 PPG while ranking 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. Indiana makes 48.6% of their shots at home which generates a healthy 80.0 PPG. The Hoosiers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. Indiana leads the Big Ten with a Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 38.6%. And while Purdue leads the Big Ten by pulling down 34.0% of their missed shots, the Hoosiers also lead the conference by limiting their opponents to rebounding just 24.5% of their missed shots. The Boilermakers average +4.6 net RPG versus their opponents — but Indiana has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after fifteen games into the season against opponents who average at least +4.0 RPG.
FINAL TAKE: Bobby Knight is expected to make his first return to Assembly Hall since 1999 with the University honoring the 1980 National Championship team — so emotions will be very high. Indiana has defeated Michigan State, Ohio State, and Florida State on their home court this season that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy currently ranks in his Top-19 teams in the nation with his analytics. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Indiana Hoosiers (642) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (641). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-05-20 |
Temple v. Memphis UNDER 136.5 |
Top |
65-79 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Temple Owls (827) and the Memphis Tigers (828). THE SITUATION: Temple (11-10) snapped their four-game losing streak on Saturday with their 76-64 win at home against East Carolina as a 10.5-point favorite. Memphis (16-5) has won their last two games with their 70-63 win over UConn as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Owls made 48.9% of their shots on Saturday in their victory over the Pirates which was the best shooting mark in their last ten games. But Temple has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now the Owls go back on the road where they are making only 36.4% of their shots which is translating into just 63.4 PPG. Temple ranks only 350th in the nation (out of 353 Division I teams) with an effective field goal percentage of 39.4% due mostly to their 37.7% shooting mark inside the arc which is also 350th in the nation — and they rank 310th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. The Owls have played 26 of their last 36 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Temple has also played 6 straight road games Under the Total with the number set in the 135 to 139.5 point range. The Owls are last in the American Athletic Conference overall in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they play strong defense for head coach Aaron McKie. Temple ranks 33rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with that ranking improving to 24th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Memphis has been outstanding on defense this season for head coach Penny Hardaway — they rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency based on their nation-leading opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 41.7%. The Tigers have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total after a win over a conference opponent. Memphis has also played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. But this team has struggled to score points as of late as they are making just 41.5% of their shots over their last five games which is has resulted in just 59.8 PPG. The Tigers stay at home where they are limiting their guests to only 34.2% shooting from the field which has translated into just 59.8 PPG. Memphis has the 3rd best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on their home court. They have played 15 of their last 22 home games Under the Total as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Temple has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Temple Owls (827) and the Memphis Tigers (828). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-01-20 |
Colorado v. USC UNDER 135.5 |
Top |
78-57 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Buffaloes (819) and the USC Trojans (820). THE SITUATION: Colorado (16-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Thursday with their 72-68 upset loss at UCLA as a 4.5-point favorite. USC (17-4) has won five of their last six contests with their 56-52 win over Utah as an 8-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buffaloes have played their last two games Over the Total — and they have then played 27 of their last 36 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Colorado stays on the road where they are making only 38.9% of their shots which is resulting in just 65.6 PPG. The Buffaloes are making just 41.3% of their shots inside the arc on the road which is 338th in the nation. This difficulty in shooting 2-pointers has dragged their effective field goal percentage on the road to just a 44.2% mark on the road which is 300th in the country. Colorado has played 25 of their last 34 road games Under the Total — and they have played 20 of their last 26 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. But this Buffaloes teams does play excellent defense — they rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. And that ranking improves when only looking at how teams play on the road where Colorado ranks 13th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. USC has played 30 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Trojans have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a win against a Pac-12 rival — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning at least two in a row against conference opponents. USC has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. The Trojans stay at home where they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record after fifteen games into the season. USC also plays tough defense — they rank 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also ranking 2nd in the Pac-12 in that metric in conference play. They hold their visitors to just 38.7% shooting on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado out-rebounds their opponents by +6.1 RPG — but the Trojans have played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who out-rebound their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG. And while USC is outscoring their opponents by +6.3 PPG, the Buffaloes have played 6 straight games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who outscore their opponents by +4.0 PPG. 25* CBB FS1-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Buffaloes (819) and the USC Trojans (820). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-01-20 |
Connecticut v. Memphis UNDER 134.5 |
Top |
63-70 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Connecticut Huskies (619) and the Memphis Tigers (620). THE SITUATION: UConn (11-9) snapped their four-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 78-63 win over Temple as a 4.5-point favorite. Memphis (15-5) ended their two-game losing streak on Wednesday when they defeated Central Florida in their gym by a 59-57 score as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. UConn has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points. The Huskies managed that victory despite making just 35.5% of their shots. UConn has not shot better than 39.7% over their last three games — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after failing to shoot better than 40% in three straight games. Over their last five contests, the Huskies have a 39.5% field goal percentage. UConn is last in the American Athletic Conference with an effective field goal percentage of just 42.5% — and they are also last in the conference by making just 26.0% of their 3-point attempts. It gets even worse for the Huskies when they are playing on the road where they are scoring just 64.0 PPG. UConn’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency is just 307th in the nation when playing on the road — and they are making only 24.2% of their 3-pointers in their true road games. But the good news for head coach Dan Hurley’s team is that they play very good defense on the road as they rank 20th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. UConn has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Huskies have also played 6 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog getting no more than 6 points. Memphis has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Tigers have also played 6 straight home games Under the Total after a narrow win by 6 points or less. Memphis averages 73.7 PPG this season but that mark has plummeted over their last five games to a mere 59.4 PPG scoring average with a 42.8% field goal percentage. But head coach Penny Hardaway can lean on the outstanding defensive this team played. The Tigers lead the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 41.8% fueled by their tough interior defense that is limiting their opponents to just 39.2% shooting inside the arc which is 2nd best in the country. Overall, Memphis ranks 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that number improves to them being 7th in the nation in that metric when they are playing on their home court. The Tigers limit their guests to scoring just 60.9 PPG on 34.3% shooting. Memphis has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s. 25* CBB CBS-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Connecticut Huskies (619) and the Memphis Tigers (620). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-31-20 |
Wright State v. Wisc-Milwaukee +6 |
Top |
65-61 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (878) plus the points versus the Wright State Raiders (877). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (10-11) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 70-53 upset loss at Cleveland State as a 3-point favorite. Wright State (18-4) has won two straight games with their 95-63 win over Northern Kentucky last Friday as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after an upset loss by double-digits. The Panthers have also covered the point spread in a decisive 54 of their last 81 games after a loss by at least 10 points to a Horizon League rival — and this includes them covering the point spread in 8 of these last 12 situations. Milwaukee allowed the Vikings to make 51.1% of their shots in that game which was the most defensive field goal percentage in their last seven games. Even worse, the Panthers made only 25.4% of their shots in that game which was the worst shooting performance for them all season. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a game where they did not make at least 28% of their shots. This team does have ways to generate more scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. The Panthers lead the Horizon League by forcing turnovers in 21.8% of their opponent’s possessions. Milwaukee also returns home where they are pulling down 36.9% of their missed shots which is 19th best in the nation. The Panthers are 7-3 on their home court with an average winning margin of +7.1 PPG while holding their opponents to just 42.9% shooting. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. Wright State enjoyed their best shooting mark of the season last week as they nailed 61.1% of their shots. The Raiders rushed out to a 48-28 halftime lead against the Norse — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after being up by at least 20 points at halftime of their last game. Wright State has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Raiders go back on the road where they are making just 43.2% of their shots. Wright State also makes only 65.5% of their free throws when on the road which is 310th worst in the nation — so don’t give up hope if the Raiders are covering the point spread late in this game. Wright State averages 81.5 PPG — but Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who score at least 77 PPG. And while the Panthers make just 40.5% of their shots, the Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who do not make more than 42% of their shots. Furthermore, Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record after fifteen games into the season.
FINAL TAKE: The Panthers will be looking to avenge an 82-70 loss to Wright State back on December 30th. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* CBB Horizon League Game of the Month with the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (878) plus the points versus the Wright State Raiders (877). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-20 |
Northeastern v. William & Mary OVER 141 |
Top |
58-59 |
Loss |
-113 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Northeastern Huskies (619) and the William & Mary Pride (620). THE SITUATION: Northeastern (11-10) has lost two of their last three games with their 76-74 loss to Delaware on Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. William & Mary (15-7) has lost two of their last three games as well after their 70-58 loss to Towson State as a 5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 26 of their last 38 games Over the Total after a narrow loss by 3 points or less — and this includes them playing 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a narrow loss by 3 points or less at home. This is an outstanding team in shooting the basketball that ranks 6th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.3%. Northeastern also ranks 4th in the nation by making 40.4% of their shots behind the arc. Those numbers do not fall off much when they are playing away from — they nail 37.7% of their 3-pointers on the road which is 26th best in the country which helps maintain their effective field goal percentage of 55% which is 11th best in the nation for teams playing on the road. The Huskies have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. Northeastern should score plenty of points against this Pride defense that ranks 232nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Huskies average 72.7 PPG on the road — and they are scoring 76.8 PPG in their last five games while making 48.5% of their shots from the field. But Northeastern has allowed their last five opponents to also make 48.5% of their shots as well. William & Mary has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. And while that game finished Under the 137 point Total, the Pride have then played 11 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. William & Mary should be able to keep up with the Huskies scoring as they rank 14th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.8%. The Pride will likely live inside against Northeastern — they rank 19th in the nation by making 54.7% of their 2-point shots while the Huskies rank 321st in the country by allowing their opponents to make 54.3% of their shots inside the arc. William & Mary is making 47.9% of their shots on their home court which has resulted in 76.7 PPG. The Pride have played 36 of their last 52 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, William & Mary has played 23 of their last 34 home games Over the Total as the favorite — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of William & Mary’s 66-64 upset victory over the Huskies back on January 4th. Northeastern shot just 43.5% from the field in that game while making just 6 of 19 (31.6%) of their shots from behind the arc in a game that saw only 65 respective possessions. The tempo should be quicker in this rematch (with the Huskies making more shots) — the Pride average 67.6 possessions per game while Northeastern averages 67.5 possessions in conference play. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Northeastern Huskies (619) and the William & Mary Pride (620). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-29-20 |
Alabama +5.5 v. LSU |
Top |
76-90 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (809) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (810). THE SITUATION: Alabama (12-7) has won four games in a row with their 77-74 win over Kansas State on Saturday in the Big 12/SEC Challenge as a 9.5-point favorite. LSU (15-4) has won eight games in a row with their 69-67 upset win at Texas on Saturday in their Big 12/SEC Challenge matchup where they were 2-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE PLUS THE POINTS: Alabama has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while that game finished above the 146 point total, the Crimson Tide have then covered the point spread in 11 straight games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Alabama allowed the Wildcats to make 35.1% of their shots which — while low — happened to be the worst defensive effort in their last five games. The Crimson Tide have the second-lowest Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in SEC play — and they have held their last five opponents to just 34.7% shooting from the field. Now Alabama goes back on the road where they are outscoring their opponents despite a 4-6 record. The Tide have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. LSU is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after narrow win on the road by 3 points or less. The Tigers have been very fortunate to eke out close games. LSU has won their last six games by a combined 15 points with all those victories by 4 points or less and with three of them decided by 1 or 2 points. The Tigers return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Head coach Will Wade lost three starters from last year’s Sweet Sixteen squad — but he did return five contributors from that group while complementing them with five transfers. Yet scoring may be a problem for this team against this Crimson Tide defense. LSU is making only 44.0% of their shots over their last five games — and they make only 25.8% of their 3-pointers on their home court which is 341st in the nation. The Tigers do lead the SEC by rebounding 41.1% of their missed shots in conference play — but Alabama is 2nd in the SEC by limiting their opponents to rebounding just 26.9% of their missed shots.
FINAL TAKE: The Crimson Tide are beginning to thrive under first-year head coach Nate Oaks who has this team playing at the quickest adjusted tempo in the nation. Over their last ten games, the advanced metrics list Alabama as the 21st best team in the nation — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Those metrics rank LSU at just 45th in the nation over their last ten games despite them being ranked once again in the Top-25 for the first time in ten weeks. The Tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. 25* CBB Underdog of the Month with the Alabama Crimson Tide (809) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (810). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-28-20 |
Purdue v. Rutgers -2.5 |
Top |
63-70 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (628) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (627). THE SITUATION: Rutgers (15-5) has won three of their last four games with their 75-72 win over Nebraska as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (11-9) snapped a two-game losing streak last Friday with their 70-57 victory over Wisconsin as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SCARLET KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Boilermakers are likely due for a letdown after playing one of their best games of the season against the Badgers. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Boilermakers ave failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road after a win over a Big Ten opponent. But Purdue has still only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Now this team goes back on the road where they have a completely different team than they are at home where they are 9-2 this season at Mackey Arena. But the Boilermakers are just 2-7 on the road where they are being outscored by -6.0 PPG. Purdue is not a good shooting team — they are 256th in the nation in effective field goal percentage and that number drops to 42.9% in Big Ten play which is last in the conference. The Boilermakers also have the worst Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the Big Ten. Their shooting is even worse away from home as they are making just 35.4% of their shots which is resulting in just 58.3 PPG. Pursue has an effective field goal percentage of 39.5% on the road which is 348th in the nation. They make only 23.8% of their 3-pointers on the road while making just 41.5% of their shots inside the arc on the road which ranks 345th and 327th in the nation. The Boilermakers also make things very difficult for themselves on the road by not getting to the free-throw line — they rank 329th in the nation with a Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 21.3%. Purdue is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 road games against Big Ten opponents. Rutgers is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a victory over a Big Ten opponent. And while the Scarlet Knights have won nine of their last eleven games, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning at least four or five of their last six games. Rutgers won seven games in Big Ten play last season with head coach Steve Pikiell returns seven of the top eight scorers from that team. The Scarlet Knights stay at home where they are 14-0 with an average winning margin of +17.1 PPG. This Rutgers team plays outstanding defense as they rank 9th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Scarlet Knights hold their guests to just 35.6% shooting on their home court which results in 56.0 PPG. Rutgers rank 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. They will make things very difficult for the Boilermakers’ shooters as they rank 20th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.0%.
FINAL TAKE: The Scarlet Knights have already defeated Seton Hall, Penn State, Indiana, and Minnesota on their home court — metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks all four of those teams in the top 39 teams in the nation. Purdue is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (628) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (627). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-20 |
North Carolina v. NC State -5.5 |
Top |
75-65 |
Loss |
-109 |
22 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (866) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (865). THE SITUATION: NC State (14-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 64-58 loss at Georgia Tech as a 1-point underdog. North Carolina (9-10) snapped their five-game losing streak with their 94-71 win at home against Miami (FL) as a 7-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK MINUS THE POINTS: NC State should respond with a strong effort as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Wolfpack have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 48 games after a loss on the road where they did not score at least 60 points. And while NC State has only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. This is an experienced team that returned six of their top seven starters from last year's 24-win team. The Wolfpack are 11-1 on their home court where they are outscoring their opponents by +14.3 PPG. NC State holds its opponents to just 40.4% shooting on their home court which has resulted in only 64.3 PPG. The Wolfpack have also held their last five opponents to just 38.1% shooting. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread 9 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. The Tar Heels made 58.1% of their shots which was by far the best shooting performance of this team all season — the next highest field goal percentage they enjoyed was in their first game of the season where they made 46.7% of their shots against Notre Dame. But North Carolina is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Yet this remains a highly disappointing season for head coach Roy Williams who lost his top five scorers from last year’s team. Injuries have further exposed the talent deficit on the roster this season. Veteran big man Sterling Manley and four-star freshman Anthony Harris are out the season with injuries. But the biggest loss has been with five-star freshman guard Cole Anthony who has out for a month and a half with a knee injury. At one point, Anthony was considered the possible number one pick in the June NBA draft. The Tar Heels go back on the road where they are just 4-5 this season while making only 40.4% of their shots. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on their home court. North Carolina has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in those last three situations. The Tar Heels only make 27.6% of their shots from behind the arc in true road games which is 308th in the nation — and their 43.7% effective field goal percentage in true road games is just 304th in the country. North Carolina only makes 58.2% of their free throws in hostile environments as well which is 304th in the nation. The Tar Heels try to make up for these shooting deficiencies by crashing the offensive glass — they are out-rebounding their opponents by +9.4 RPG. North Carolina out-rebounded the Hurricanes on Saturday by a 41 to 21 margin — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after out-rebounding their last opponent by at least 20 boards. Furthermore, NC State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams that out-rebound their opponents by at least +5.0 RPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Wolfpack are outscoring their opponents by +7.2 PPG while holding these foes to just 41.9% shooting from the field. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 42% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +4.0 PPG. 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Game of the Month with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (866) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (865). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-25-20 |
TCU v. Arkansas -6.5 |
Top |
67-78 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (692) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (691). THE SITUATION: Arkansas (14-4) has lost two straight games with their 72-70 loss at Mississippi State as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday. TCU (13-5) snapped a two-game losing streak on Tuesday with their 65-54 upset victory over Texas Tech as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAZORBACKS MINUS THE POINTS: Arkansas needs to get focused back on sharing the basketball to establish better looking shots — they have managed only 12 and 8 assists in each of their last two games. The Razorbacks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not generating more than 12 team assists in two straight games. Arkansas only attempted 11 free throws on Wednesday as well while the Bulldogs got to the line 31 times which resulted in a -21 point differential for them at the line. The Razorbacks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a game where they attempted at least 20 fewer free throws than their opponent. Arkansas returns home where they are 10-1 this season with an average winning main of +17.9 PPG. The Razorbacks are playing sound fundamental defense under first-year head coach Eric Musselman who came over from Nevada — they are holding their guests to just 56.9 PPG on 38.4% shooting on their home court. Arkansas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage at 40% or less on the road. The Razorbacks are 20th in the nation in forcing turnovers in 23.5% of their opponent’s possessions — and the Horned Frogs are vulnerable on this front as they turn the ball over in 20.2% of their possessions (238th in the nation) with that mark being even worse in Big 12 play at a 21.9% clip. TCU also likes to force turnovers — they are 26th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.5% of their opponent’s possessions. But good luck forcing turnovers against this Arkansas team that leads the SEC by turning the ball over in just 12.2% of their possessions. The Horned Frogs made 46.9% of their shots in their upset win over the Red Raiders which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after pulling off an upset win in conference play. The Horned Frogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up victory. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 2-3 with an average losing margin of -7.0 PPG. TCU is likely to get a visit from the Regression Gods this afternoon when it comes to their shots falling as they make only 37.0% of their shots away from home. They are also nailing just 36.8% of their shots over their last five games. Jamie Dixon’s team is taking 49.5% of their shots from behind the arc in Big 12 play — but that will be a chore against this Razorbacks’ team that leads the nation by holding their opponents to just 23.9% shooting from behind the arc. The Horned Frogs had also allowed their previous two opponents to make 53.7% and 57.7% of their shots before holding Texas Tech to just 43.1% shooting. TCU ranks a dismal 347th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 58.7% when they are playing on the road. The Horned Frogs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. TCU has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: The Horned Frogs are just 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 road games as an underdog. And while they hold their opponents to 62.3 PPG, Arkansas has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 48 home games after fifteen games into the season against opponents who do not allow more than 64 PPG. 25* CBB Big 12/SEC Challenge Game of the Year with the Arkansas Razorbacks (692) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (691). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-25-20 |
Illinois v. Michigan -4 |
Top |
64-62 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (610) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (609). THE SITUATION: Michigan (11-7) has lost three straight games as well as four of their last five contests after their 72-63 upset loss at home to Penn State on Wednesday as a 4.5-point favorite. Illinois (14-5) has won five straight games with their 79-62 win at Purdue as a 5.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan made only 35.3% of their shots against the Nittany Lions which was the worst shooting effort in their last ten games — and it was their lowest field goal percentage they have generated all season when playing on their home court. The Wolverines certainly miss Isaiah Livers who has been over a month with a groin injury. But keep in mind that three of the four losses they have suffered over their last five games have been on the road in the rugged Big Ten against teams who all are projected to make the NCAA Tournament. This is a battled tested team that is desperate for a victory this afternoon. Michigan did defeat a good Purdue team at home this month even without Livers by a 84-78 score in their other home game this month before this contest. Even without Livers in five of their seven Big Ten contests so far this season, they are still 2nd in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Look for the Wolverines to respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after suffering an upset loss. They are also 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread loss. Michigan is 8-2 on their home court with an average winning margin of +15.7 PPG. They are making 49.2% of their shots on their home court which has translated into 83.1 PPG — so the Wolverines should nail more of their shots than they did on Wednesday. Michigan is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games at home — and they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 22 home games against Big Ten foes, the Wolverines have covered the point spread 16 times. Illinois nailed 55.1% of their shots in their upset win on the road against the Boilermakers which was the best shooting mark they have enjoyed in their last twelve games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. The Fighting Illini are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a point spread victory. The Illini stay on the road where they are 3-4 this season while making only 42.3% of their shots. Illinois make only 28.2% of their 3-pointers away from home which is 292nd in the nation. The Fighting Illini are 11th in the Big Ten with an effective field goal percentage of 46.1%. And Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 37 road games with the Total set in the 135.5 to 139 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan will also be motivated to avenge a 71-62 loss at Illinois back on December 11th where they were 1.5-point underdogs. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games then playing with revenge from a loss on the road. Michigan still has their wily veteran point guard leader in Xavier Simpson along with big man Jon Teske and a cadre of scrappy role players that rookie head coach Juwan Howard has done a good job in empowering this season. 25* CBB FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Michigan Wolverines (610) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (609). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-24-20 |
Marquette v. Butler -6 |
Top |
85-89 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Butler Bulldogs (868) minus the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (867). THE SITUATION: Butler (15-4) has lost three games in a row with their 76-61 loss at Villanova as a 3.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Marquette (14-5) has won three in a row with their 82-68 win over St. John’s as an 8-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Butler needs to stop their three-game losing streak in Big East play but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after losing three in a row to conference rivals. And their loss at Villanova came upon the heels of a 13-point upset loss at DePaul — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after suffering two straight double-digit losses to Big East rivals. Furthermore, while the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least three straight games. Butler returns home where they are 9-1 with an average winning margin of +17.0 PPG. The Bulldogs made only 40.6% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. They should shoot better tonight as they are making 47.8% of their shots at home which has resulted in 72.1 PPG. Butler has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 130s. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games as a favorite laying 6.5 to 9 points. This team is playing outstanding defense as they are 19th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They have held their last five opponents to just 39.2% shooting from the field — and they limit their guests to just 54.1 PPG on 36.0% shooting on their home court. Butler is vulnerable to teams that force turnovers as they are coughing it up in 20.2% of their conference possessions — but that is not this Golden Eagles team who only force turnovers in 12.4% of their Big East opponent’s possessions which is last in the conference. Marquette has scored at least 82 points in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 80 points in three straight games. And while they 20 fewer shots than the Red Storm on Tuesday, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after attempting at least 20 fewer shots than their opponent in their last contest. Now the Golden Eagles go back on the road where they are 4-4 but being outscored by -3.0 PPG. They make only 41.6% of their shots on the road — and they are making just 41.6% of their shots in their last five contests. Marquette has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Big East Game of the Month with the Butler Bulldogs (868) minus the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (867). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-20 |
UCLA v. Oregon State -7.5 |
Top |
62-58 |
Loss |
-106 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oregon State Beavers (684) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (683). THE SITUATION: Oregon State (12-6) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 89-76 loss at Washington State as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. UCLA (9-9) snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday with their 50-40 win at home against California as a 9-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEAVERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oregon State allowed the Cougars to nail 50.9% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort of the season. The Beavers should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after a point spread setback. Oregon State is a strong offensive team that ranks 18th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Beavers take 44.2% of their shots at the rim which is the 20th highest mark in the nation. They also get to the free-throw line with a free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 40.4% which is 23rd in the nation. Oregon State should get to the free-throw line plenty of times tonight against this Bruins team that has an opponent’s FTA-to-FGA ratio of 37.9%. Now head coach Wayne Tinkle’s team returns home where they are 8-1 this season with an average winning margin of +14.0 PPG. The Beavers’ reliable method of generating points at the rim or the free-throw line has helped them score 80.8 PPG on their home court where they also make 50.4% of their shots. Oregon State also played solid defense at home as they limit their guests to just 40.7% shooting. The Beavers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. UCLA’s win against California was ugly by both teams. The Bruins made just 41.3% of their shots which happened to also be their best offensive effort in their last three games. The Golden Bears made only 30.4% of their shots which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last ten games. However, Cal probably needs to take more of the credit/blame for that ghastly number that the UCLA defense considering they experienced a scoreless spell lasting 10:59 minutes in that game. The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a straight-up victory. Now after playing their last three games at home, UCLA goes back on the road where they are 2-5 with an average losing margin of -4.5 PPG. The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after playing their last three games on the road. UCLA struggles to score points under first-year head coach Mick Cronin — they rank 252nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 47.4%. They are making only 42.3% of their shots on the road which has resulted in only 65.9 PPG in those seven games away from home. The Bruins are making just 40.6% of their shots in their last five contests. UCLA does get much of their offense from second-chance opportunities as they pul down 36.1% of their shots which is 13th best in the nation. The Beavers are doing a good job in Pac-12 play of limiting second-chance opportunities as are limiting conference opponents to rebounding just 26.1% of their missed shots. UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Bruins beat Washington earlier this season but they have also endured a bad loss at home to Cal-State Fullerton. UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. This Oregon State team returned four key contributors from last year’s group that finished 18-13 — and they have already register quality wins against Arizona, Colorado, and Iowa State at home in Corvallis. 25* CBB Thursday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Oregon State Beavers (684) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (683). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-20 |
Connecticut v. Houston UNDER 130 |
Top |
59-63 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Connecticut Huskies (663) and the Houston Cougars (664). THE SITUATION: UConn (10-7) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 61-55 loss at Villanova on Saturday as a 9.5-point underdog. Houston (15-4) has won two straight games as well as eight of their last nine games after their 65-54 upset win at Wichita State on Saturday as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. UConn made 49% of their shots in their losing effort to the Wildcats in that game which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. Yet the Huskies are only making 40.3% of their shots still over their last five games. They stay on the road where they are making just 41.8% of their shots which is resulting in just 64.7 PPG. UConn has played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Houston has played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road. And while the Cougars have only allowed 25 and 20 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total at home after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in at least two straight games. Houston returns home where they are holding their visitors to just 35.2% shooting from the field which is resulting in just 60.9 PPG. The Cougars are improving on the defensive end of the court as they have held their last five opponents to just 38.2% shooting. But Houston is not as dynamic on offense when playing on their home court this season. The Cougars are 13th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while posting an effective field goal percentage of 49.5% — but when playing at home, their effective field goal percentage drops to 49.1% while their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency plummets to just 64th in the nation. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: UConn has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 straight road games Under the Total when getting the points as the underdog. 5* CBB Thursday ESPNU Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Connecticut Huskies (663) and the Houston Cougars (664). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-22-20 |
North Dakota State v. South Dakota State -1 |
Top |
73-78 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (824) minus the points versus the North Dakota State Bison (823). THE SITUATION: South Dakota State (14-8) saw their five-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 99-84 loss at South Dakota as a 2.5-point underdog. North Dakota State (13-6) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 83-74 win over North Dakota as an 8-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JACKRABBITS MINUS THE POINTS: South Dakota State allowed the Coyotes to make 64.4% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed all season. The Jackrabbits do have the lowest opponent’s effective field goal percentage in Summit League play at 48.3% — and they are 2nd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. South Dakota State is 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games after a point spread loss. Now they return home where they are a perfect 11-0 this season with an average winning margin of +19.8 PPG. The Jackrabbits hold their guests to just 38.8% shooting from the field which has resulted in only 62.4 PPG. South Dakota State was expected to take a couple of steps back this season after the graduation of their senior leader Mike Daum. Head coach T.J. Otzlelberger than departed to Las Vegas to take the UNLV head coaching gig and All-Summit League shooting guard David Jenkins decided to transfer to the Runnin’ Rebels to join him in Vegas as well. But assistant head coach Eric Henderson has maintained the consistency with this basketball since, despite losing 83% of their scoring from last season, they are leading the Summit League on Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Jackrabbits are 10th in the nation with a 54.9% effective field goal percentage — and that mark rises to a 61.3% mark in conference play. South Dakota State has made at least 50% of their shots in seven straight games — and they are averaging 82.2 PPG on their home court while making 50% of their shots. The Jackrabbits are a decisive 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. South Dakota State has also covered the point spread in 7 straight home games as the favorite. North Dakota State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a game where they scored at least 80 points. This Bison team returns ten of their eleven regular contributors that lost to Duke in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. But this team was just 9-7 in Summit League play last season before their depth helped them win the conference tournament to seize the automatic tournament bid. They then defeated a mediocre NC Central team in the four-four in Dayton before getting clobbered by the Blue Devils. This team lacks a superstar and relies on their depth to keep them competitive. They are just 5-5 on the road this season where they are making only 39.6% of their shots. North Dakota State is just 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 games on the road as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em. This team is also just 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: North Dakota State’s best win was against East Tennessee State that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks as the 57th best team in the nation. Their next best win was a 2-point win at home against South Dakota that Pomeroy ranks as the 187th in the country. The Bison have a very bad loss at home to Utah Valley who Pomeroy ranks at 276th in the nation. South Dakota State has an impressive 7-point loss earlier in the season at Arizona. Lay the points with the Jackrabbits. 25* CBB Summit League Game of the Month with the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (824) minus the points versus the North Dakota State Bison (823). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-20 |
Illinois v. Purdue -5.5 |
Top |
79-62 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (606) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (605). THE SITUATION: Purdue (10-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 57-50 loss at Maryland on Saturday as a 6.5-point underdog. Illinois (13-5) has won four games in a row with their 75-71 win over Northwestern on Saturday as a 12.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Purdue should respond with a strong effort as they are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. This team has been a much different team at home than on the road this season. The Boilermakers are 8-1 at Mackey Arena this season where they are outscoring their opponents by +22.8 PPG. Purdue has won fifteen straight home games in Big Ten play — and they have outscored the five major conference opponents they have hosted this season by +24 points per 100 possessions. The Boilermakers are an outstanding defensive team — they rank 6th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held six of their opponents to under 50 points. Purdue has held their guests to just 36.8% shooting which has translated into only 54.6 PPG. Scoring has been the problem for this Boilermakers team when playing on the road. They made only 35.7% of their shots in their loss at Maryland on Saturday. But Purdue ranks 10th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home — and that has helped them also post the top home-court rating in Adjusted Efficiency this season. The Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on their home court — and they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. Illinois comes off a 50% shooting mark against the Wildcats which was the best shooting mark in their last five games. But the Fighting Illini are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. And while the Illini have won five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. This Illinois team will likely struggle to score baskets tonight against this outstanding Boilermakers defense as they rank just 10th in the Big Ten in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Illini are 11-1 at home this season but just 2-4 away from home where they are being outscored by -6.0 PPG. Illinois makes only 40.6% of their shots on the road which translates into just 65.5 PPG. The Illini are also making only 39.5% of their shots over their last five contests. Illinois ranks 256th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 44.9% due to their low 3-point shooting percentage of 25.3% which is 331st in the nation. Nailing 3-pointers will be very tough in Mackey Arena where the Boilermakers are holding their visitors to just 26.2% shooting from behind the arc which is the 22nd lowest mark in the nation. Additionally, the Fighting Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Purdue will also be looking to avenge a 63-37 loss at Illinois back on January 5th in a game where they made only 15 of their 60 shots from the field. The Boilermakers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games as the favorite. The Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Purdue Boilermakers (606) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (605). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-20-20 |
Weber State v. Portland State -4 |
Top |
76-92 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Portland State Vikings (882) minus the points versus the Weber State Wildcats (881). THE SITUATION: Portland State (9-10) has won two of their last three games with their 82-76 win over Idaho State on Saturday as a 7.5-point favorite. Weber State (6-11) snapped their three-game losing streak on Thursday with their 76-68 victory at Idaho State as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Portland State is 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a straight-up win. And while the Vikings have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Portland State is led by Holland Woods who might be the best point guard in the Big Sky Conference. He leads an offense that tops the conference in Adjusted Efficiency. The Vikings also live off their offensive glass as they rank 7th in the nation by pulling down 37.1% of their missed shots. Portland State should get plenty of second-chance opportunities against this Weber State team that is 11th in the Big Sky by allowing their opponents to rebound 32.8% of their missed shots. The Vikings stay at home where they are 5-2 with an average winning margin of +12.1 PPG. Portland State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Weber State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win. The Wildcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a point spread victory including failing to cover the point spread in five straight after cover the spread. It has been a disappointing season for head coach Randy Rahe in the thirteenth season with the program. The Wildcats have a good backcourt consisting of Jerrick Harding and Cody John but they are not getting much help in the frontcourt. They stay on the road for a third straight game where they are just 2-8 with an average losing margin of -13.1 PPG. Weber State makes only 40.9% of their shots on the road — and they allow their home hosts to make 50.1% of their shots from the field. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Weber State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games as an underdog. Portland Sate has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 3.5 to 6 points. Look for the Vikings to overwhelm this struggling Wildcats team. 25* CBB Big Sky Game of the Month with the Portland State Vikings (882) minus the points versus the Weber State Wildcats (881). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-18-20 |
Utah State v. Boise State +2 |
Top |
83-88 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (822) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (821). THE SITUATION: Boise State (11-8) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 85-78 upset loss at Air Force on Wednesday as a 1-point favorite. Utah State (14-5) snapped a three-game losing streak last Saturday with their 80-70 win at home over Nevada as a 9.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Boise State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. Head coach Leon Rice has five of his top six scorers from last season return from a group that finished a disappointing 13-20 — that was the first time in the last seven seasons that the Broncos did not register at least 20 wins. This Boise State team expects to return to the postseason. All three of their most recent losses were on the road — now they return home where they are 8-1 this season with a signature victory over BYU. The Broncos are outscoring their guests by +21.8 PPG due to a prolific offensive attack that scores 83.8 PPG with a 47.9% field goal percentage. They also hold their visitors to just 39.3% shooting from the field. Boise State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games as an underdog. The Broncos do a great job of protecting their defensive glass as they rank 14th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 22.8% offensive rebounding rate. Utah State played one of their best games of the season last Saturday to end their losing streak as they made 46.3% of their shots while holding the Wolf Pack to just 39% shooting from the field — both those marks were the best statistical performances in their last four games. But the Aggies have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Expectations are very high for this team that returned four starters from last year’s 28-7 team that made the Big Dance after winning the Mountain West Conference tournament. But this team has struggled away from home with a 5-4 record which includes recent losses at UNLV and the Air Force. Utah State is making only 41.8% of their shots when on the road which has resulted in only 67.8 PPG. Their effective field goal percentage of 44.1% when on the road ranks a disappointing 282nd in the nation — and they are making only 26.5% of their 3-pointers on the road which is 317th in the country. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Utah State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games as a road favorite. Their struggles on offense extend beyond shooting poorly when on the road. The Aggies are making just 39.3% of their shots in conference play — and their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 98.9 against MWC foes is just 9th in the conference. Furthermore, interior defense has been a concern for this group as they rank 8th in the MWC by allowing their opponents to make 50.5% of their shots inside the arc.
FINAL TAKE: This is not a good matchup for Utah State. Boise State averages 8 made 3-pointers per game — and the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games against teams who make at least 8 shots from downtown per game. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB ESPNU Game of the Year with the Boise State Broncos (822) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (821). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-16-20 |
California v. USC UNDER 133 |
Top |
56-88 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (693) and the USC Trojans (694). THE SITUATION: California (8-8) has won two straight games with their 61-58 upset win at home against Washington on Saturday as a 6.5-point underdog. USC (13-3) has won seven of their last eight games after their 74-63 upset win at UCLA last Saturday as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trojans shot 57.4% from the field in their upset win over the Bruins which was their best shooting effort of the season. USC also held UCLA to just 37.9% shooting with that defensive performance being more indicative of their level of play since they have held their last five opponents to just 37.3% shooting from the field. USC has played an eye-popping 15 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where they made 57% of their shots while holding their opponent to no better than 43% shooting from the field. Additionally, the Trojans have played 29 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now after playing their last three games on the road, USC returns home to make their Pac-12 debut in front of their home fans this season. The Trojans have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total after playing their last three games on the road. The Under is 35-16-1 in USC’s last 52 games at home — and the Under is 21-8-1 in their last 30 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 9 home games in conference play, the Trojans have played 8 of these games Under the Total. California has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win over a Pac-12 opponent — and they have played 10 straight games on the road Under the Total after playing a game at home as an underdog. And while the Golden Bears have covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their last two games. Cal looks to build off their best defensive performance of the season as they held the Huskies to just 29.5% shooting from the field. But now the Golden Bears go back on the road where they are scoring just 56.0 PPG while making only 36.2% of their shots. Cal ranks 353rd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of just 35.3% in their three true road games. And over their last five games, the Golden Bears are making just 39.6% of their shots. Cal has played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total. The Golden Bears have also played 35 of their last 55 games Under the Total as an underdog including the Under going 3-0-1 in their last 4 games when getting the points.
FINAL TAKE: Cal has played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 20 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (693) and the USC Trojans (694). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-16-20 |
Texas State v. Louisiana-Monroe +6 |
Top |
64-63 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (646) plus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (645). THE SITUATION: Louisiana-Monroe (6-10) has lost three straight games with their 84-62 loss at Georgia State as a 12.5-point underdog last Saturday. Texas State (10-8) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 82-57 win over Appalachian State as a 7-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: UL-Monroe allowed the Panthers to nail 57.7% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort of the season. The Warhawks should respond with a stronger effort as they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Furthermore, UL-Monroe has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing at least two straight games to Sun Belt Conference opponents. Now after playing their last three games on the road, the Warhawks return home where they are 6-3 this season with an average winning margin of +9.2 PPG. UL-Monroe should play better on defense as they limit their visitors to just 40% shooting this season. The Warhawks have covered the point spread in a decisive 38 of their last 60 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game — and this includes them covering the point spread in twelve of these last seventeen situations. UL-Monroe has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games as a dog getting up to 6 points. Texas State nailed 53.8% of their shots last Saturday against the Mountaineers which was their second-best shooting effort all season. The Bobcats have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Now Texas State goes back on the road where they are just 2-6 with an average losing margin of -4.1 PPG. A concern for this team is finding offense after their three-year starter on the wing in Nigel Pearson. The Bobcats are making only 41.6% of their shots on the road — and they have made just 41.3% of their shots in their last five games despite their nice shooting performance on Saturday. Much of the Texas State offense comes from getting to the free-throw line — they rank 12th in the nation with a Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 41.6%. Getting these calls is not as reliable when playing in hostile environments. The Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a favorite. Additionally, Texas State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less.
FINAL TAKE: The Bobcats will have success forcing turnovers as they rank 2nd in the Sun Belt by forcing turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions — and the Warhawks are 10th in the conference by turning it over in 22.2% of their conference possessions. But UL-Monroe should be able to make this up to stay competitive with their 3-point shooting. The Warhawks are 2nd in the Sun Belt by making 39% of their shots from behind the arc — and they are 22nd in the nation by nailing 41.7% of their 3-pointers at home. Texas State is 287th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 36.0% of their 3-point shots. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Underdog of the Month with the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (646) plus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (645). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-15-20 |
St. John's v. Providence -5 |
Top |
58-63 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Providence Friars (838) minus the points versus the St. John’s Red Storm (837). THE SITUATION: Providence (10-7) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Friday with their 70-58 loss at home to Butler as a 1-point underdog. St. John’s (12-5) snapped a three-game losing streak last Saturday with their 74-67 win at home to DePaul as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FRIARS MINUS THE POINTS: Providence made only 31.7% of their shots against the Bulldogs which was their second-worst shooting effort of the season. They also allowed Butler to make 55.6% of their shots which was the highest mark any opponent has shot against them all season. This was probably the worst overall effort for Ed Cooley’s team all season which was a disappointment because they had registered quality wins against Texas, Georgetown, DePaul, and then Marquette before the loss to the Bulldogs. This team returned all five starters from last year’s team that made the NIT. Expect a strong effort tonight as the Friars ave bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home. This veteran group needs to get back to sharing the basketball after managing only 8 assists on Friday — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to generate more than 9 assists in their last game. Providence stays at home where they are 7-2 this season with an average winning margin of +17.4 PPG. They play tough defense at home by limiting their opponents to just 39.1% shooting which translates into just 60.8 PPG. The Friars rank 17th in the nation in Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin when playing on their home court. St. John’s has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home against a fellow Big East rival. The Red Storm made 40.3% of their shots which seems pretty low — but it was actually the best shooting effort in their last five games. St. John’s is one of the worst shooting teams in the nation — they rank 308th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 45.6%. They have made only 36.8% of their shots over their last five games which has contributed to them playing six straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing at least three straight Unders. The Red Storm will be playing in just their third true road game tonight — they are 351st in the nation on the road with an effective field goal percentage of 37.6% while making only 17.1% of their 3-point shots on the road which is 352nd in the nation. St. John’s are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road. This Red Storm team compensates for this poor shooting with a full-court press under first-year head coach Mike Anderson. His “forty minutes of hell” approach has led the Red Storm to 18th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.2% of their opponent’s possessions. The Friars are vulnerable as they turn the ball over in 19.0% of their possessions (140th in the nation) but that mark has dipped to a 17.5% mark in their four conference games. Providence does force turnovers as well at a 23.0% rate which is 36th in the nation. The Friars should seize an advantage in the possession battle on the offensive boards as they pull down 32.6% of their missed shots which is 57th in the nation — and St. John’s allows their opponents to pull down 31.2% of their missed shots which is 294th in the nation. The Red Storm have been out-rebounded by at least 7 boards in four straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after being out-rebounded by at least six rebounds in three straight games.
FINAL TAKE: St. John is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Providence has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Wednesday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Providence Friars (838) minus the points versus the St. John’s Red Storm (837). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-10-20 |
Maryland v. Iowa +2 |
Top |
49-67 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (838) plus the points versus the Maryland Terrapins (837). THE SITUATION: Iowa (10-5) has lost their last two games after their 76-70 upset loss at Nebraska on Tuesday as an 8-point favorite. Maryland (13-2) has won three in a row after their 67-55 win at home over Ohio State on Tuesday as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss on the road. The Hawkeyes have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. Iowa played one of their worst games of the season against the Cornhuskers. They allowed Nebraska to make 49.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. They also shot just 41.6% from the field which was the worst offensive effort in their last eight contests. The Hawkeyes made only 4 of their 33 shots (12.1%) from 3-point land — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to make at least 20% of their shots from behind the arc in their last game. Iowa made it to the second round of the NCAA Tournament but suffered a tough blow last month when Jordan Bohanan decided to take a medical redshirt this season to fully recover from the hip surgery he had in the offseason. While the loss of Bohanan probably lowers the ceiling regarding the potential of the team, the Hawkeyes are likely still an NCAA Tournament team again this season given their depth along with two very good players in junior Luka Garza and sophomore Jon Weiskamp who is a likely future NBA player. Iowa has defeated Texas Tech and Cincinnati this season on neutral courts while also recording a nice win at home against Minnesota. The Hawkeyes are 6-1 at home this season where they are outscoring their opponents by +18.3 PPG due to their potent offense that scores 83.6 PPG on 48% shooting from the field. Head coach Fran McCaffrey has built an offensive juggernaut in Iowa City as this team ranks 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. They are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Maryland comes off their biggest win of the season against a Buckeyes team that was ranked number one in the nation earlier in the season. They held Ohio State to just 31.3% shooting from the field in that game in what was the best defensive effort in their last six contests. But the Terrapins have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after a double-digit win at home. Maryland has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two games in a row against Big Ten opponents. And while they have covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in their last two contests. The Terrapins also reached the second round of the Big Dance last season but expectations are higher for this team with all but one of their contributors from that team back this season. However, the departure of big man Bruno Fernando to the NBA has left a void with Maryland missing his 13.0 PPG, 10.6 RPG, and 2.0 APG. The lack of a consistently reliable scorer in the post has held back this team at times. They have been riddled with slow starts which have them living on the edge before senior point guard Anthony Cowan bails them out. They have been much too loose with the basketball as they are turning the ball over in 19.5% of their possessions in Big Ten play. This is also not a great shooting basketball team as they rank just 227th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 48.0% — and they are making just 38.2% of their shots on the road. Furthermore, now after playing their last three games at home in College Park, the Terrapins go on the road for just their third true road game in a hostile environment — and they have lost their first two road games at Seton Hall and Penn State. Shooting has been the biggest problem for this team in those games as they rank just 303rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road due to their terrible 36.2% effective field goal percentage in those games which is the worst mark of all Division I teams. Maryland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Terrapins have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 4 road games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 34 road games as a favorite of 3 points or less.
FINAL TAKE: Shot volume may make the difference in this game. Maryland was outshot by the Buckeyes in their last contest by a 67 to 46 margin — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after being outshot by at least 20 in their last game. Iowa outshot Nebraska by a 77 to 53 margin in their loss on Tuesday — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after outshooting their last opponent by at least 20. 25* CBB Friday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (838) plus the points versus the Maryland Terrapins (837). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-07-20 |
Providence v. Marquette -5 |
Top |
81-80 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Marquette Golden Eagles (602) minus the points versus the Providence Friars (601). THE SITUATION: Marquette (11-3) has won six of their last seven games with their 71-60 win over Villanova as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Providence (9-6) has won three in a row as well with their 66-65 win at DePaul as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Marquette should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win at home over a conference rival. The Golden Eagles defeating the Wildcats despite making only 37% of their shots which was their worst shooting effort of the season. This team can overcome bad shooting performances because they get plenty of easy ones at the free-throw line — they rank 8th in the nation with a Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 42.5% which is 8th best in the nation. The Friars will put them on the free-throw line tonight as they rank 231st in the nation with an opponent’s FTA/FGA ratio of 34.3%. Marquette only made 5 of their 21 shots from behind the arc for a low 23.8% shooting mark — and that is far below their 40.8% shooting percentage from 3-point land which is 3rd best in the nation led by their superstar guard Markus Howard. The Golden Eagles are a perfect 8-0 at home with an average winning margin of +20.7 PPG. They are playing much better defense under head coach Steve Wojciechowski than in past seasons — they are holding their visitors to just 34.9% shooting which has resulted in 60.0 PPG. Marquette has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games as a favorite. Providence has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread victory. Expectations were high for head coach Ed Cooley’s team this season that returned all five starters from a team that missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time in six seasons. They have registered their three best wins of the season in their current winning streak with victories against Texas, Georgetown, and DePaul — but they have also endured bad losses to Long Beach State, Penn, and Charleston. The Friars have struggled on the road where they are just 2-5 while being outscored by -8.6 PPG. Providence makes only 36.4% of their shots when playing on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Friars have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after playing a game where they were an underdog on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Providence has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Marquette has been bolstered with the strong play of Utah State transfer Kobe McEwan to complement Howard as a second scoring threat. The Golden Eagles are top-40 in both Adjusted Offensive and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. 25* CBB Tuesday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Marquette Golden Eagles (602) minus the points versus the Providence Friars (601). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-20 |
Purdue v. Illinois -2 |
Top |
37-63 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Illinois Fighting Illini (846) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (845). THE SITUATION: Illinois (9-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 76-56 loss at Michigan State on Thursday as a 10-point underdog. Purdue (9-5) has won their last two games with their 83-78 win against Minnesota at home in double overtime as a 7-point favorite on January 2nd.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING ILLINI MINUS THE POINTS: Illinois shot just 29.3% from the field against the Spartans in what was their worst shooting effort of the season. Illinois has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. This team returned eight of their top nine scorers from last year’s team that had just a 12-21 record last season. But they also added a 7’0 290-lb freshman in Kofi Cockburn who has helped the team rank 3rd in the nation by pulling down 39.3% of their missed shots. The Illini return home where they are 8-1 with an average winning margin of +24.5 PPG. Illinois is making 51.6% of their shots on their home court which is generation an 86.7 PPG scoring average. They also limit their visitors to just 41.1% shooting. The Illini are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home — and they are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games when laying the points. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games after a win at home against a Big Ten rival. This team lost three starters from last year’s team with the biggest hole being the graduation of Carsen Edwards that has left this team without a reliable go-to scorer. The Boilermakers go back on the road where they are just 2-4 while scoring just 60.0 PPG because they are making only 36% of their shots. Purdue really struggles to make baskets away from home — they rank 314th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of just 41.5% when playing on the road. The Boilermakers connect on only 24.7% of their 3-pointers on the road which is 325th in the nation. They are also making a mere 52.3% of their free throws in true road games which is 343rd in the nation. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record. Together, these team trends produce our specific 50-14-2 ATS combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: Purdue’s best win this season was at home against a Virginia team who does not look nearly as good as advertised when entering the season. The Boilermakers also lost on the road at Nebraska by 14 points to a Cornhuskers team that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks as just the 152nd best team in the nation. Pomeroy places Illinois at 44th in the nation who has a signature win at home against Michigan. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as the underdog. 25* CBB Sunday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Illinois Fighting Illini (846) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (845). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-02-20 |
SE Missouri State v. Austin Peay OVER 142 |
Top |
63-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (669) and the Austin Peay Governors (670). THE SITUATION: SE Missouri State (4-9) snapped their five-game losing streak on Sunday with their 74-59 win over Missouri Baptist. Austin Peay (6-7) has lost two of their last three games with their 78-48 loss at Georgia on Monday as a 13-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Governors shot just 26.6% from the field in their loss to the Bulldogs — but they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after failing to make at least 33% of their shots in their last game. Austin Peay has also played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, the Governors have play 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after failing to score at least 50 points in their last game. Austin Peay returns home where they are shooting 52.5% from the field which has translated into 90.6 PPG in their five games on their home court. The Governors have an effective field goal percentage of 59.2% at home which is the 27th best mark in the nation. Austin Peay has played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total at home — and they have also played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Governors do struggle on the defensive end of the court as they have allowed five of their last six opponents make at least 50.7% of their shots. Over their last five games, Austin Peay is allowing 75.6 PPG with those five opponents shooting 51.3%. SE Missouri State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. And while the Redhawks have only covered the point spread once in their last five boarded games, they have then played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. SE Missouri State opens conference play having played 25 of their last 36 games Over the Total against Ohio Valley foes. They have also played 10 of their last 14 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Redhawks are allowing their home hosts to make 47.3% of their shots — and they have also allowed their last five opponents to shoot 47.4% from the field.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams that struggle on defense with SE Missouri State ranking 276th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and Austin Peay ranking 321st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (669) and the Austin Peay Governors (670). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-19 |
Houston +1 v. Washington |
Top |
75-71 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (827) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Washington Huskies (828) in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic. THE SITUATION: Houston (10-3) reached the finals of this holiday tournament with their 70-59 win over Georgia Tech on Monday as a 7.5-point favorite. Washington (10-2) joined them with their 72-61 victory over the host team in Hawai’i by a 72-61 score as a 7-point favorite. This game is being played in Honolulu on the Rainbow Warriors home court.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Houston has not allowed more than 63 points in seven straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 65 points in at least five contests. Head coach Kelvin Sampson lost four starters from last year’s Sweet Sixteen team — but six contributors did return from that club. Sampson has built a strong program in Houston that is built on discipline, defense, and rebounding. For the first time since taking over this basketball team, the frontcourt may be a strength for Sampson with 6’8 junior Brison Gresham and 6’10 senior Chris Harris Jr. The Cougars out-rebounded the Yellow Jackets by +17 boards on Monday while pulling down 16 offensive rebounds. This team is second in the nation by rebounding 40.7% of their missed shots — and this is an area of vulnerability for the Huskies as they allow their opponents to rebound 28.0% of their missed shots which is 168th in the nation. The X-factor for this team is the transfer from Kansas in Quentin Grimes who started in all 36 games for the Jayhawks as a freshman. The former McDonald’s All-American scored 26 points against Georgia Tech. This Cougars’ offense is dependent on their athleticism which translates well when playing away from home as they rank 13th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road or neutral courts. Houston has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Washington lost four starters from last year’s NCAA Tournament team — but head coach Mike Hopkins has two McDonald’s All-American freshmen in Isaiah Stewart and Jaden McDaniels. Hopkins deploys a similar 2-3 matchup zone similar to the Syracuse system where he served as an assistant. They held the Rainbow Warriors to just 28.4% shooting — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing their last opponent to make at least 33% of their shots. This Washington team thrives inside the arc where they are making 55.4% of their shots which is 20th in the nation. That number does drop to them making 51.6% of their 2-point shots when playing on the road or neutral courts — and they will be challenged by this Cougars defense that is 15th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 41.3% shooting inside the arc. Washington has covered the point spread in their last three games as the favorite — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in their last three games as the favorite. The Huskies have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games playing on a neutral court with the Total set in the 135 to 139.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Washington’s best win was their opening game of the season when they defeated Baylor — they have since lost to their best two opponents in Tennessee and Gonzaga. Houston’s best win was against South Carolina with their three losses to BYU, Oregon, and Oklahoma State. I like how this Cougars team is developing and their style of play is both a good fit for a neutral court as well as when matching up against the Huskies. 25* CBB Diamond Head Classic Game of the Year with the Houston Cougars (827) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Washington Huskies (828). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-18-19 |
St. Mary's v. Arizona State UNDER 137 |
Top |
96-56 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Saint Mary’s Gaels (697) and the Arizona State Sun Devils (698). THE SITUATION: Saint Mary’s (9-2) enters this game coming off an 89-77 win at California as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Arizona State (8-2) has won five games in a row with their 79-59 win over Georgia as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be playing a neutral court at the Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Gaels have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 13 road games Under the Total after a win on the road where they scored at least 85 points. Saint Mary’s made 54.3% of their shots in their game against the Golden Bears which was their second-highest shooting percentage of the season. But the Gaels need to tighten things up on defense after allowing Cal to make 50% of their shots after Dayton made 53.8% of their shots in their previous game. Saint Mary’s has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Additionally, the Gaels have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. And in their last 75 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Under is 50-24-1. Arizona State has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Sun Devils have also played 7 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points. Arizona State made 49.3% of their shots which was their best shooting mark of the season. The Sun Devils have scored at least 77 points in three straight games — but they have then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight contests. But now this team travels from Tempe to play this game in Phoenix — and they are making just 43.6% of their shots on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when the favorite — and the Under is 23-9-1 in their last 33 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Hall of Fame Showcase Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Saint Mary’s Gaels (697) and the Arizona State Sun Devils (698). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-17-19 |
Miami-FL v. Temple -2.5 |
Top |
78-77 |
Loss |
-107 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (632) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (631). THE SITUATION: Temple (7-2) has won three of their last four games with their 108-61 win over St. Joseph’s last Tuesday as an 11.5-point favorite. Miami (6-3) has won two in a row with their 88-74 win over Alabama A&M as a 26.5-point favorite last Saturday. This last game of the Hall of Fame Invitational is being played on a neutral court at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS MINUS THE POINTS: Temple has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. The Owls have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on the road after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. This team has eleven players returning from last year’s group that finished 23-10 with a trip to the NCAA Tournament. Fran Dunphy retired but first-year head coach Aaron McKie who was a long-time assistant for Dunphy at his alma mater has this team continuing to play outstanding defense. Temple is 20th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency due to their strong half-court defense as they are holding their opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 42.5% which is 15th best in the nation. This stout play on defense has helped the Owls play well away from home where they are 4-1 with an average winning margin of +8.6 PPG. Temple holds its opponents to just 59.4 PPG on 35.2% shooting when playing away from home. The Owls played an outstanding Maryland team very tough on a neutral court last month as they held a lead with under 4 minutes to play before ultimately losing by 7 points. They also held a lead with under 5 minutes to go in their other loss to Missouri before letting that game slip away. Temple has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games played on a neutral court. Miami has won six of their last eight games but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The Hurricanes have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after a straight-up win. And while Miami has scored at least 81 points in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. This Hurricanes team is trying to re-establish themselves after going just 14-18 last year where they failed to make the Big Dance for the first time in four seasons. Miami is making 39.8% of their 3-pointers this season but they are attempting 3s in just 32.3% of their field goal attempts which is 282nd lowest in the nation. Defense is a big problem for head coach Jim Larranaga as they rank 200th in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Hurricanes are getting killed on their defensive glass as their opponents are pulling down 34.4% of their missed shots which is 330th in the country — and second-chance opportunities should help the Owls when playing on a neutral court. Miami is being outscored in their five games away from home by -6.0 PPG while allowing those opponents to make 49.7% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: The Hurricanes are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games played on a neutral court while failing to cover the point spread in 7 straight games played on a neutral court as an underdog. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog overall. 25* CBB Hall of Fame Invitational Game of the Year with the Temple Owls (632) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (631). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-14-19 |
Gonzaga v. Arizona -1.5 |
Top |
84-80 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arizona Wildcats (758) minus the point(s) versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (757). THE SITUATION: Arizona (10-1) enters this game coming off a 99-49 dominant win over Nebraska-Omaha on Wednesday as a 20.5-point favorite. Gonzaga (10-1) has won their last two games after their 83-76 win at Washington last Sunday as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINT(S): This is an important game for head coach Sean Miller’s team after his team limped to a 17-15 record with their season ending with an opening round loss in the Pac-12 tournament. Four players returned from that team while Miller reloaded his roster with the 5th best recruiting class. The team is led by a dynamic freshman point guard in Nico Mannion who is scoring 14.9 PPG while averaging 6.2 Assists-Per-Game. This Wildcats team is much better of the offensive end of the court this season. They rank 13th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency led by strong 3-point shooting as they are making 40.6% of their 3-pointers which is 17th best in the nation. Perimeter defense is a vulnerability for this Bulldogs team as they are allowing their opponents to make 34.9% of their 3-point shots which is 244th in the nation. What is encouraging for Miller is the outstanding play he is getting on defense despite having three freshmen in his starting lineup. The Wildcats held Nebraska-Omaha to just 26.6% shooting on Wednesday — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing their last opponent to shoot better than 28% from the field. Arizona’s only loss this season was in their previous game at Baylor where they lost by a 63-58 score — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. The Wildcats are very tough at home where they are a perfect 8-0 so far this season with an average winning margin of +30.2 PPG. Arizona limits their visitors to just 36.2% shooting which has translated into only 59.4 PPG. The Wildcats are also making 53.7% of their shots at home which has resulted in them averaging 89.6 PPG. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 75 points. And while the Bulldogs limited the Huskies to just 2 offensive rebounds, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after not allowing more than 5 offensive rebounds in their last game. Gonzaga lost 79.8% of its scoring along with four starters from last year’s team Elite Eight team — so this is also a group that is highly dependent on freshmen with eight newcomers on the roster. Led by the 6’10 Killian Tillie, this is a big team that relies on their frontcourt — but they will be facing a Wildcats team that is holding their opponents to just 39.4% shooting inside the arc which is 5th best in the nation. This is not a good matchup for this Bulldogs team. Arizona has an opponent’s field goal percentage of 36.7% — and Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against teams who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 42%. And while the Wildcats average 18 Assists-Per-Game, the Bulldogs have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their 10 games against teams who average at least 16 Assists-Per-Game.
FINAL TAKE: This is an important rivalry game for both teams — and Gonzaga won last year’s meeting between these two teams in the Maui Invitational by a 91-74 score. Miller will be using this rematch as a measuring stick for his team. 25* CBB Saturday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Arizona Wildcats (758) minus the point(s) versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (757). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-11-19 |
Wisconsin v. Rutgers UNDER 125 |
Top |
65-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wisconsin Badgers (635) and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (636). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (5-4) snapped their three-game losing streak on Saturday with their 84-64 win over Indiana as a 2-point underdog. Rutgers (6-3) has lost their last two games with their 77-65 loss at Michigan State as a 14-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Badgers have played 7 straight games Under the Total after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have played 27 of their last 32 games after an upset victory over a Big Ten rival. Wisconsin made 53.6% of their shots in that game which was their best shooting effort of the season. But this Badgers team has struggled to make baskets this season. They are 280th in the nation by making only 30.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Wisconsin is solid with a 52.9% shooting percentage inside the arc (75th in the nation) but they are facing a Scarlet Knights team that is 41st in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 43.1% shooting inside the arc. Now this team goes back on the road where they are scoring a mere 54.7 PPG on low 37% shooting. But Wisconsin is still playing solid defense on the road as they are holding their home hosts to just 63.7 PPG on 44.4% shooting. The Badgers have played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Additionally, Wisconsin has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total as an underdog. Rutgers has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. And while the Scarlet Knights have played four straight Overs, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Now this team returns home where they are holding their opponents to just 56.5 PPG while limiting them to making only 35.6% of their shots. Rutgers has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Scarlet Knights have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Rutgers is getting much of their offense from crashing the offensive glass — they are pulling down 33.7% of their missed shots which is 47th in the nation. But the Badgers are still doing a good job of protecting their defensive glass this season as they rank 22nd in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding just 23.0% of their missed shots. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Wisconsin Badgers (635) and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-03-19 |
Michigan v. Louisville -4.5 |
Top |
43-58 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (746) minus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (745). THE SITUATION: Louisville (7-0) hosts this game after their 71-54 win over Western Kentucky as a 10-point favorite last Friday. Michigan (7-0) won the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament on Friday with their 82-64 upset win over Gonzaga as a 4.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a big letdown spot for the Wolverines after they pulled off two straight upsets last week over North Carolina and the Bulldogs with a third victory over a good Iowa State team to begin that tournament. The travel will be difficult for this team that returned from the Bahamas to Ann Arbor over the week before getting on a plane again for this high-profile showdown between what is now two teams ranked in the Top-Five in the nation. Michigan has covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in four straight contests. The Wolverines have been simply lights out with their shooting so far this season — they rank 9th in the nation by making 42.4% of their 3-pointers. Credit certainly goes to rookie head coach Juwan Howard who has installed some NBA level schemes into the mix. But this is also the Wolverines’ first true road game of the season — and they will be challenged by the Pack-Line defense of Louisville’s Chris Mack which is difficult to prepare for. Michigan’s role players have been a pleasant surprise so far this season — but I suspect the shots will start to not fall for this team. A problem then for this team given the style that Howard has deployed is that this team does not do many things to create additional scoring chances. Michigan was not a big offensive rebounding team under John Beilein and this year’s team is pulling down only 23.6% of their missed shots. But the Wolverines became very good at forcing turnovers in the half-court when Luke Yaklich became an assistant coach. Yet this year this Michigan team is forcing turnovers in just 16.8% of their opponent's possessions which is 303rd in the nation. I worry this team is becoming “live-or-die” with their 3-point shooting. The Cardinals are holding their opponents to just 28.7% shooting from behind the arc so far this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams that make at least 41% of their 3-point shots. Expectations are high for Louisville in Mack’s second season because they returned six of their top seven scorers from last year’s 20-14 team that made the NCAA Tournament — and they added a half-dozen four and five-star recruits along with Saint Joseph transfer Lamar Kimble to make this a very deep roster of talent. While the Cardinals have not faced a daunting schedule, they still rank 2nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 8th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Louisville has only covered the point spread twice in their last six games — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Cardinals have also outrebounded their last three opponents by at least 12 boards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after out-rebounding their last three opponents by at least 10 rebounds.
FINAL TAKE: With Michigan’s success last week in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament, this has become a very important game for this Cardinals team since it is their highest-profile matchup before conference play begins. Getting to host the Wolverines just four days later after they won that tournament is a very favorable situation. 25* CBB ACC-Big Ten Challenge Game of the Year with the Louisville Cardinals (746) minus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (745). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-28-19 |
Michigan v. North Carolina UNDER 147 |
Top |
73-64 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 1:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (769) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (770) in the Semifinals of the Battle 4 Atlantic Tournament. THE SITUATION: Michigan (5-0) won their opening round game in this three-day tournament with their 83-76 win over Iowa State as a 2-point favorite. North Carolina (5-0) joined them in the Semifinals of this event with their 76-67 win over Alabama as a 10-point favorite yesterday. This game will be played on a neutral court in Nassau.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wolverines have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Michigan has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. The Wolverines made 10 3-pointers yesterday en route to a 57.7% shooting percentage from the field. That effort came on the heels of their 55.8% shooting mark at home against Houston-Baptist where they nailed 14 shots from behind the arc. This team is playing at a faster pace with the players having more of a green light to shoot under first-year head coach Juwan Howard. Howard is dialing up some nice schemes for this team — but this Wolverines group lacks a reliable go-to scorer. They are also settling for a bunch of lower percentage of 2-point shots. As it is, Michigan has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after making at least 55% of their shots in two straight games. The Wolverines have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after making at least 10 3-pointers in two straight games. Michigan will likely struggle to score while playing their worst offensive game of the season against this Tar Heels team that ranks 7th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Wolverines have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total on a neutral court. Michigan has also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. North Carolina has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. Additionally, the Tar Heels have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. North Carolina also pulled down 60 rebounds yesterday — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after grabbing at least 51 boards in their last game. The Heels allowed the Crimson Tide to shoot 38.2% from the field which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed all season. This is a team that has not scored more than 78 points this season which is uncharacteristic of recent Roy Williams teams in Chapel Hill. It is not surprising that the Tar Heels have struggled to find themselves on offense after they lost their top five scorers from last year’s team with three of those players drafted in the first round of the NBA. Williams has a star in freshman Chase Anthony — but he has a very tough assignment with the Wolverines’ Xavier Simpson likely getting the defensive assignment. The Wolverines also have an outstanding post defender in Jon Teste nicknamed the Big Sleep for his defensive abilities down on the block. Michigan ranks 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
FINAL TAKE: Norther Carolina has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. The Tar Heels have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. 25* CBB Battle 4 Atlantic Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (769) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (770). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-26-19 |
Butler v. Stanford UNDER 124.5 |
Top |
68-67 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Butler Bulldogs (673) and the Stanford Cardinal (674) in the championship game of the Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City, Missouri. THE SITUATION: Butler (6-0) reached the finals of this two-day tournament with their 63-52 upset win over Missouri as a 2-point underdog. Stanford (7-0) comes off a 73-54 upset win over Oklahoma yesterday as a 4.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Butler pulled the upset over the Tigers in large measure by making 47.8% of their shots which was the highest shooting percentage for them all season. The Bulldogs have three starters along with two other significant contributors from last year’s team that finished 16-17 after losing in the first round of the NIT. Third-year head coach LaVall Jordan also added three new big men into his rotation this season. Butler is thriving on the defensive end of the court as they rank 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Bulldogs have not allowed more than 61 points in a game this season — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in at least two straight games. Additionally, Butler has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big East — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as the favorite or as a pick ‘em. Stanford has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Cardinal pulled the upset over the Sooners despite making just 38.5% of their shots which was their worst shooting effort of the season. Not coincidentally, that was Stanford’s first game of the new season that they played away from home. The Cardinal has played 8 of their last 10 games on a neutral court Under the Total — and the Under is 20-8-1 in their last 29 games on a neutral court. Stanford has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. The Cardinal is also played solid defense under fourth-year head coach Jerod Haase. They rank 30th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Stanford has played three straight Unders — and they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games Under the Total. The Cardinal has also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the Pac-12.
FINAL TAKE: Stanford is living by the 3-point shot as they rank 8th in the nation by making 42.4% of their shots from downtown. But Butler ranks 5th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 23.0% shooting from the 3-point line. The Bulldogs have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total in November while the Cardinal has played 15 of their last 222 games Under the Total in November. 25* CBB Hall of Fame Classic Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Butler Bulldogs (673) and the Stanford Cardinal (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-26-19 |
Wright State -7 v. La Salle |
Top |
70-72 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Wright State Raiders (633) minus the points versus the LaSalle Explorers in the championship game of the Gulf Coast Showcase tournament in Estero, Florida. THE SITUATION: Wright State reached the finals of this two-day tournament with their 72-57 win over Weber State yesterday as a 7.5-point favorite. LaSalle (2-2) joined them in this game with their 75-64 upset win over Murray State yesterday as a 7-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wright State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when playing their second game in three days. This team returned their top three scorers in center Louden Love, forward Billy Wampler, and guard Cole Gentry back from last year’s Horizon League regular season champions. Wright State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Horizon League. The Raiders have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored or a pick ‘em on a neutral court. LaSalle has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Explorers made 51.1% of their shots from the field which was their best shooting effort of the season. LaSalle also nailed 13 of their 28 shots (46.4%) from behind the arc to help them pull the upset. But it will be difficult for this team to come close to replicating that performance — especially on a neutral court where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games. The Explorers were 10-21 last year under first-year head coach Ashley Howard. LaSalle has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Explorers are thin in the frontcourt which is an area that the Raiders should exploit. Wright State is pulling down 35.9% of their missed shots this season which is 29th in the nation — and LaSalle is allowing their opponents to rebound 32.1% of their missed shots which is 274th in the nation. 25* CBB Gulf Coast Showcase Game of the Year with the Wright State reached the finals of this two-day tournament with their 72-57 win over Weber State yesterday as a 7.5-point favorite. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-12-19 |
Memphis v. Oregon UNDER 145.5 |
Top |
74-82 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (819) and the Memphis Tigers (820). THE SITUATION: Oregon (2-0) has won their first two games this season after their 106-75 win over Boise State on Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite. Memphis (2-0) has also won their first two games of the new season with their 92-46 win over Illinois-Chicago on Friday as a 20-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Moda Denver in Portland.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ducks were on fire on Saturday as they shot 70% from the field to torch the Broncos. But Oregon has then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making at least 60% of their shots in their last game — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. The Under is also 10-3-1 in the Ducks last 14 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 9-2-1 in their last 12 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Oregon has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win at home by at least 20 points. The Ducks have played very good defense so far this season — they held Boise State to just 42.9% shooting from the field after limiting Fresno State to just 34.5% shooting in their opening game. This will be Oregon’s first game away from their home court this season — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after playing two straight games at home. And while their win over the Broncos flew over the 136.5 total on Saturday, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Furthermore, Oregon has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total with the number set in the 140s — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games against teams outside the Pac-12. Memphis has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Tigers made 59.3% of their shots in their victory on Friday while holding the Flames to just a 24.% shooting mark. Memphis has then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a game where they shot at least 57% while holding their opponent to no better than 43% shooting. Their victory over Illinois-Chicago was preceded by a 97-64 win over South Carolina State where they held them to just 36.2% shooting — and they have played 17 of their last 22 road games Under the Total after winning their previous two games by at least 20 points. Freshman James Wiseman will likely play in this game with the court-ordered injunction still in effect that has blocked the NCAA’s decision to make him ineligible — the seven-footer had five blocks on Friday. Wiseman should be dominant on defense inside the paint against this Ducks team that lacks size. Moving forward, the Under is 6-0-1 in Oregon’s last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Oregon has seen the Under go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games played on a neutral court — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 6 points. Memphis has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. 25* CBB Phil Knight Invitational Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (819) and the Memphis Tigers (820). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-05-19 |
Michigan State v. Kentucky UNDER 141 |
Top |
62-69 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (689) and the Kentucky Wildcats (690). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (0-0) returns two starters from last year’s team that lost to Texas Tech in the Final Four. Kentucky (0-0) has one starter back from last year’s group that lost in overtime to Auburn in the Elite Eight. This game is the second contest in the two Champions Classic games being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spartans closed out last season having played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten. This Michigan State team will once again be led by a Player of the Year candidate in Cassius Winston. But this team lacks a reliable second scoring option given the injuries to Joshua Langford that will keep off the court until at least January at the earliest. It looks like Kyle Ahrens will be able to play tonight but he will not likely be close to 100% given the high angle sprain he is dealing with. The Spartans closed out last season playing 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Michigan State has also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have also played 11 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court when favored or listed as a pick ‘em. Kentucky is led by sophomore Ashton Hagans who was the co-Defensive Player of the Year in the SEC last year. The Wildcats closed out last season playing 6 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the SEC. Kentucky has also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Wildcats closed out last season playing 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as an underdog getting no more than 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: I am comfortable putting some stock in these team trends because they reflect the core personality of the respective head coaches in Tom Izzo and John Calipari. Lastly, because the Spartans out-rebounded their opponents by +8.8 RPG last season, the Under is also supported by an empirical angle that has been 86% effective over the last five seasons. In games played on a neutral court in the first ten games of the season with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, when one team out-rebounded their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG last season and has two starters back from that team, these games then finished Under the Total in 24 of these last 28 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFB Champions Classic Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (689) and the Kentucky Wildcats (690). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-08-19 |
Texas Tech v. Virginia UNDER 118 |
Top |
77-85 |
Loss |
-105 |
24 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (811) and the Virginia Cavaliers (812). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (31-6) reached the National Championship game on Saturday with their 61-51 upset victory over Michigan State as a 2-point underdog. Virginia (34-3) joins them in this showdown with their 63-62 win over Auburn as a 6-point favorite. This game will be played in U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis as a neutral court.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We know about the strong defenses both these teams play. Texas Tech leads the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while Virginia ranks 5th in the nation in that metric. The question is whether the oddsmakers have installed the Total too low with it currently residing in the 118 range. While the Over might look for very tempting to many bettors, don’t take the bait. The Red Raiders allowed only 58.8 PPG this season while limiting their opponents to just 36.8% shooting from the field. Their five NCAA Tournament opponents are scoring at just a 0.85 Points-Per-Possession rate which is the lowest since mark in the Big Dance since 2006. What makes this Texas Tech defense so tough is their ability to seamlessly switch off as defenders to fight off picks with all five of their players on the court. The Red Raiders have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big 12. Texas Tech has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total as a pick ‘em or underdog of 3 points or less when playing on a neutral court. Additionally, the Red Raiders have played 18 of their last 25 games in the postseason Under the Total — and this includes them playing five of their last six games in the Big Dance Under the Total. Virginia has played 8 of their last 9 road games against teams who do not allow more than 64 PPG. The Cavaliers are holding their opponents to just 55.5 PPG this season while limiting these foes to just 38.4% shooting from the field. Texas Tech has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 39% or lower. On paper, Virginia has the third highest Adjusted Offensive Efficiency number in the nation. In practice, the Cavaliers have only matched or eclipsed that number once in their last six games this season (against Purdue). Virginia made 49% of their shots against Auburn which was actually their best shooting effort from the field in their last four games — yet they scored only 63 points. The Cavaliers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a close win by 3 points or less — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Virginia has only scored 28 and 29 points in the first half of their last two contests — and they have then played 7 straight games on the road Under the Total after failing to score at least 30 points in the first half in two straight games. The Cavaliers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. Virginia has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: I would not be shocked if one of these teams gets hot with their shooting. However, I do not see both teams torching the nets — and it is much more likely that both teams will struggle to hit baskets with the pressure of winning a National Championship on the line. Both these teams complement their stout defenses with a slow deliberate pace on the offensive end of the court. The strong fundamental play here is with the Under. 25* College Basketball Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (811) and the Virginia Cavaliers (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-08-19 |
Texas Tech +1.5 v. Virginia |
Top |
77-85 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (811) plus the point(s) versus the Virginia Cavaliers (812). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (31-6) reached the National Championship game on Saturday with their 61-51 upset victory over Michigan State as a 2-point underdog. Virginia (34-3) joins them in this showdown with their 63-62 win over Auburn as a 6-point favorite. This game will be played in U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis as a neutral court.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Texas Tech defeated the Spartans on Saturday despite making only 43.1% of their shots which was tied for the lowest field goal percentage in their last nine games. The Red Raiders did it with defense as they held Michigan State to just a 31.9% field goal percentage. Texas Tech has upset Michigan, Gonzaga, and then Sparty all in a row with all three of those teams ranking in metrics guru Ken Pomeroy’s top seven teams in the nation. And while the Red Raiders have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Red Raiders allowed only 58.8 PPG this season while limiting their opponents to just 36.8% shooting from the field. Their five NCAA Tournament opponents are scoring at just a 0.85 Points-Per-Possession rate which is the lowest since mark in the Big Dance since 2006. What makes this Texas Tech defense so tough is their ability to seamlessly switch off as defenders to fight off picks with all five of their players on the court. The Red Raiders have covered the point spread in 11 straight games against teams with a winning record. Texas Tech has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or underdog. Furthermore, the Red Raiders have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games when playing their second game in three days. Virginia survived their game with Auburn while making 49% of their shots which was the best shooting performance in their last four games. The Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow victory by 3 points or less. Virginia has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing their second game in three days. On paper, Virginia has the third highest Adjusted Offensive Efficiency number in the nation. In practice, the Cavaliers have only matched or eclipsed that number once in their last six games this season (against Purdue). This team just does not seem to play at the same level of efficiency on offense in the Big Dance as they do during the regular season. Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in the NCAA Tournament. Much of their improved success on offense during the regular season was head coach Tony Bennett’s move to more ball screen offensive sets. However, that will be difficult to execute given the ability of Texas Tech to switch defenders. The Cavs are likely to lean on their conventional Blocker-Mover offense which has been the source of their past struggles to score baskets in the NCAA Tournament. That offensive system is also slow — and this hinders Virginia from finding good shot opportunities when they need to score buckets in a hurry. Too often, the Cavaliers settle for launching ill-advised long 3-pointers when they get into trouble late in games. Furthermore, Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite of no more than 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: Virginia has been very fortunate to eke out their last two games against Purdue and Auburn. Pomeroy ranks those teams as the 9th and 11th best in the nation — and that places them all below the Red Raiders’ last three opponents. Texas Tech has developed secondary scorers who have been reliable in offering a scoring punch to complement their star, Jarrett Culver. 25* CBB Texas Tech-Virginia A-List Special with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (811) plus the point(s) versus the Virginia Cavaliers (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-06-19 |
Texas Tech v. Michigan State UNDER 133 |
Top |
61-51 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (801) and the Michigan State Spartans (802). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (30-6) reached the Final Four last Saturday with their 75-69 upset victory over Gonzaga as a 5-point underdog. Michigan State (32-6) joined them the next day when they upset Duke by a 68-67 score as a 2.5-point underdog. The Final Four takes place U.S. Bank Stadium on a neutral court in Minneapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: In theory, the Red Raiders were facing their biggest defensive challenge of the season against a balanced and dynamic Bulldogs offense last week. In practice, Gonzaga scored at just a 0.97 Points-Per-Possession pace which was just the third time all season that the Bulldogs failed to score at least 1.0 PPG against their opponent. Yet even still, the 42.4% shooting clip that Gonzaga managed against Texas Tech was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage the latter had allowed in their last five games. The Red Raiders are holding their NCAA Tournaments to only 57 PPG. A key to their defense is the play of their rim protector, the 6’8, 250-lb Norense Odiase who is holding opponents to scoring at a minuscule 0.429 Points-Per-Possession in Post-Up plays which is in the 95th percentile in the nation this season. The issue for this Texas Tech team is that their offense tends to stall if Chris Mooney or Davide Moretti are not providing a scoring boost to complement Jarrett Culver. Mooney scored 17 points against Gonzaga but that was his highest scoring output in two months. Moretti made a whopping 62.5% of his 3-pointers in the two games in Anaheim after missing all seven of his 3-pointers in the first two games in the Big Dance. When neither of those players are contributing points, the Red Raiders offense becomes too one-dimensional as they rely on Culver to create shots in isolation. Texas Tech has played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. Furthermore, the Red Raiders have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big 12 — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s. Texas Tech has also found more offense by scoring in transition — but they are now facing a Spartans team that did not allow Duke to score a single point in transition last Sunday. The Under is 28-10-1 in Michigan State’s last 39 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 20-7-1 in their last 28 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Spartans have only allowed 30 and 28 points in the first half of their last two games — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 30 points in their last game. Michigan State has held their opponents in the NCAA Tournament to just 61.3 PPG while limiting them to only 28.2% shooting from behind the arc. The Under is 19-7-1 in the Spartans’ last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, Michigan State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament.
FINAL TAKE: Texas Tech averages 18.3 seconds per possession which is the 267th slowest in the nation. With the Red Raiders boasting the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation and Sparty not far behind by ranking 9th in the nation in that metric. Points should be hard to come by in this contest. 25* CBB Final Four Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (801) and the Michigan State Spartans (802). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-06-19 |
Auburn v. Virginia -5.5 |
Top |
62-63 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (804) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (803). THE SITUATION: Virginia (33-3) reached the Final Four last Saturday with their 80-75 victory in overtime against Purdue as a 4.5-point favorite. Auburn (30-9) joined them on Sunday with their 77-71 upset victory in overtime over Kentucky as a 4.5-point underdog. The Final Four takes place on a neutral court in Minneapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: I suspect that the victory over the Boilermakers was a breakthrough for the Virginia program under head coach Tony Bennett. For starters, advancing to the Final Four is the farthest a Cavaliers team has enjoyed in his ten years with the program. Furthermore, Virginia was forced to flex all of their offensive muscles to survive against Purdue’s Carson Edwards who was simply unconscious in that game in scoring 42 points while making 10 of 19 (52.6%) of his shots from behind the arc with many being well beyond NBA range. The rap on this Cavaliers’ program under Bennett has been that while their Pack-Line defense is very difficult to penetrate, the slow pace that the team deploys on offense makes them vulnerable when their middle-of-the-pack scoring threats are not making shots. This came to a head in their upset loss to the 16-seed Maryland-Baltimore County in the first round of last year’s Big Dance. But this year’s team was elite on the offensive end of the court during the regular season — they rank 2nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. With De’Andre Hunter who is a legitimate future top-ten NBA draft pick and Kyle Guy who nails 42.7% of his 3-pointers, Bennett has the most dynamic scoring threats in his tenure in Charlottesville. They should build off the momentum from their victory against Purdue as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after a win by 6 points or less. And while the Cavaliers have only allowed 30 and 19 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half of their last two games. Moving forward, Virginia has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the ACC — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, the Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 130s — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court where they were favored by 3.5 to 6 points. Auburn pulled off two straight upset in the Regional Finals with their victory over the Wildcats preceded by a win over North Carolina. What made the win over Kentucky even more impressive is that the Tigers did it even after the season-ending knee injury to their big man Chum Okeke. They were a team that remained determine to finally defeat their SEC rivals on Sunday after losing two them twice during the regular season. But the absence of Okeke and the burden of being the underdog once again may finally be too much for Bruce Pearl’s team. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after being an underdog in their last two games. And while the Tigers have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three of their last four games. Frankly, this matchup with Virginia is not a good one for this Auburn team. The Tigers lead the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.9% of their opponent’s possessions — but the Cavaliers only turn the ball over in 14.7% of their possessions which is 12th lowest in the country. Auburn also nails 38.3% of their 3-pointers which is 15th best in the nation — but that Caves’ Pack-Line defense is very tough to shoot over as Virginia is 3rd in the nation with their opponent’s making just 28.7% of their 3-point attempts. Without Okeke, Auburn is without their best offensive rebounded. Virginia allows only 55.4 PPG — and the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who do not allow more than 57 PPG. And while the Cavaliers average 21 shots from behind the arc per game, Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 37 of their last 57 games on the road after fifteen games into the season against opponents who launch at least 21 shots from behind the arc per game. And while the Tigers average 11 made 3-pointers per game, Virginia has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams who average at least 9 made 3-pointers per game.
FINAL TAKE: I expect the bubble to burst for Auburn in this game. Even after a Herculean effort by Edwards, Virginia was too much for a very good Purdue team in the Elite Eight who had a seven-footer patrolling the middle. The absence of Okeke down low will allow for the Cavaliers to extend their Pack-Line a little further out which will force the Tigers to launch even longer 3-pointers. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year with the Virginia Cavaliers (804) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (803). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-04-19 |
Green Bay v. Marshall -5 |
Top |
70-90 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (734) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix (733). THE SITUATION: Marshall (22-14) reached the Finals of the College Insider Tournament on Tuesday with their 80-78 victory over Hampton as a 7.5-point favorite. Green Bay (21-16) joined them in the Finals of this tournament with their 87-86 win in overtime over Texas Southern as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD MINUS THE POINTS: Marshall has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. They get to host this championship game — and they are 15-3 at home with an average winning margin of +8.3 PPG. The Thundering Herd have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 56 home games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 6 points. Marshall plays at a blistering pace — they average only 14.3 seconds per possession which is the third fastest in the nation. The Thundering Herd score 86.0 PPG on their home court. They have scored at least 80 points in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after scoring at least 75 points in three straight games. Marshall has also improved their play on the defensive end of the court as they have held their last five opponents to just 41.1% shooting. The Thundering Herd have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a victory by 6 points or less in their last contest. And while the Phoenix have won five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Green Bay dished out 24 assists as a team on Tuesday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a game where they had at least 24 assists. Now the Phoenix go back on the road for the first time in their last four games where they are just 6-13 this season with an average losing margin of -7.7 PPG. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games after playing their last three games on their home court. The Phoenix will be happy to play at the fast pace that the Thundering Herd will push as they rank 8th in the nation by averaging 14.9 seconds per possession. But Green Bay shoots under 44% from the field when playing away from home. The Phoenix have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road - -and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as a pick ‘em or underdog getting no more than 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Phoenix are not a good defensive team — their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 55.3% on the road in hostile environments is 295th in the nation. Marshall should outrun Green Bay tonight. 25* CBB CIT Game of the Year with the Marshall Thundering Herd (734) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix (733). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-02-19 |
Texas v. TCU UNDER 138 |
Top |
58-44 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (711) and the TCU Horned Frogs (712). THE SITUATION: Texas (19-16) reached the Semifinals of the NIT last Wednesday with their 68-55 win over Colorado as a 5-point favorite. TCU (23-13) joins them in the NIT Semifinals care of their 71-58 won over Creighton as a 3.5-point favorite last Tuesday. The way meet in the Madison Square Garden where the Semifinals and Finals of this event take place.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns held the Buffaloes to just 32.7% shooting in their win on Thursday. This is a strong defensive unit for head coach Shaka Smart — they rank 35th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Under is 38-17-1 in Texas’ last 56 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total after a straight-up victory. And while they held Colorado to just 19 first-half points — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. Now the Longhorns go on the road after playing their last three games — and they shoot just 41.5% from the field away from home. Over their last five games, Texas is shooting only 40.2% from the field. They have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 135 to 139.5 point range. TCU is also playing their first game away from home in their last four contests. The Horned Frogs have played 31 of their last 43 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. And while their victory over the Bluejays was preceded by an 88-72 win over Nebraska, TCU has then played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after winning their last two games at home by double-digits. Head coach Jamie Dixon’s squad is also very good on the defensive end of the court as they rank 33rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after holding Creighton to just 36.2% shooting. The Horned Frogs have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the Total set in the 135 to 139.5 point range. And in their last 87 games in expected close contests where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, TCU has played 53 of these games Under the Total — and this includes them playing five of these last seven situations.
FINAL TAKE: The Horned Frogs have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Longhorns have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Texas is looking to avenge a 69-56 upset loss at home laying 7 points to TCU back on March 9th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss. These two teams have played 10 of their last 12 meetings Under the Total — expect another low scoring game between these two teams in the third meeting between these Big 12 opponents this season. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (711) and the TCU Horned Frogs (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-01-19 |
DePaul v. South Florida -1 |
Top |
61-63 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the South Florida Bulls (702) minus the point(s) versus the DePaul Blue Demons (701). South Florida (21-13) reached the Finals of the College Basketball Invitational with their 56-47 win over Loyola-Marymount on Thursday as a 4-point favorite. DePaul (18-15) joined them the day before with a 92-87 win over Coastal Carolina as an 8-point favorite. The Bulls host the opening game of this best-of-three series before this event travels to Chicago with the Blue Demons hosting the second and potential third games to determine the champion.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS MINUS THE POINT(S): South Florida should build off the momentum of their victory against the Lions as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a point spread victory. Second-year head coach Brian Gregory has done a great job with this team that was predicted to finish last in the American Athletic Conference. Instead, the Bulls finished 8-10 in conference play based on a defense-first physical style of play. South Florida is 41st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed just 61 PPG in this tournament. The Bulls generated points second-chance opportunities and getting to the free throw line. South Florida is 10th in the nation by pulling down 36.4% of their missed shots — and they lead the nation with a Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 49.9%. The Bulls will want to win this opening game on their home court with this series moving to DePaul the rest of the way. South Florida is 16-5 on their home court this season with an average winning margin of +6.5 PPG. They hold their guests to just 64.5 PPG on 41.9% shooting from the field. Additionally, the Bulls have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. DePaul may be due for a letdown as they are just 11-28-3 ATS in their last 42 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. The Blue Demons have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. DePaul is a high scoring team that has averaged 96.1 PPG in this tournament. But they have played all three of these games at home. Now they go on the road where they are just 3-9 this season with an average losing making of -5.7 PPG while allowing their home hosts to score 80.3 PPG. The Blue Demons have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. DePaul is not a good defensive team — they rank 217th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have allowed their last five opponents to score 87.0 PPG while shooting 49.7% from the field. The Blue Demons have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Big East.
FINAL TAKE: This is a contrast of styles with the bruising style of South Florida countering DePaul’s high-scoring finesse attack. With the Blue Demons playing in a hostile environment, the Bulls’ defense should have the upper hand. 25* CBB CBI Game of the Year with the South Florida Bulls (702) minus the point(s) versus the DePaul Blue Demons (701). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-31-19 |
Michigan State +2.5 v. Duke |
Top |
68-67 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (691) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (692). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (31-6) has won eight straight games after their 80-63 win over LSU on Friday as a 6-point favorite. Duke (32-5) reached the Elite Eight on Friday with their 75-73 win over Virginia Tech as a 7-point favorite. This East regional game takes place in Washington D.C.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: The Blue Devils may not be at full strength in this game with both Cam Reddish and Jack White listed as questionable with injuries. Duke’s rotation is already thin so not having the services of either player — especially Reddish — would really hurt this team’s chances this afternoon. One could say that the Blue Devils are a team of destiny after surviving two missed layups to advance in each of their last two games. I think these scares are indicative of a very young team who have sky-expectations on them. This Duke team only makes 32.9% of their shots from behind the arc (329th in the nation) so they are often at a disadvantage trading 2 points for 3. The Blue Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up victory. Duke did shoot 55.4% from the field on Friday which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. But the Blue Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. Duke has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 road games after winning at least fifteen of their last twenty games. Additionally, the Blue Devils are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a neutral court. Furthermore, Duke has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan State has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Spartans have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after a double-digit victory. I suspect the difference in this game will be the leadership of Cassius Winston. While he will be checked by a fabulous defensive player in freshman Tre Jones, Winston elevated his game this year to dominate an even better defensive player in Michigan’s Xavier Simpson three times this season. Michigan State has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams outside the Big Ten. The Wolverines have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played with the Total set in the 150s — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Duke has struggled this season when defending ball screens — and the Spartans thrive in this department with Winston running the point. Look for Michigan State to pull the upset — but take the points for some insurance (because winning the bet is more important than a small bump in a money-line payout). 25* CBB Elite Eight Game of the Year with the Michigan State Spartans (691) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (692). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-30-19 |
Purdue v. Virginia -4 |
Top |
75-80 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (682) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (681). THE SITUATION: Virginia (32-3) reached the Elite Eight with their 53-49 win over Oregon on Thursday as an 8.5-point favorite. Purdue (26-9) joined them in the Elite Eight with their 99-94 win in overtime over Tennessee as a 1.5-point underdog. This South regional contest take place in Louisville.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: Purdue is a team that lives-by-the-3 and dies-by-the-3. The Boilermakers take 45.2% of their shots from behind the arc (36th in the nation) with made 3-pointers representing 39.2% of their points production (21st in the nation). Their alpha-male on the offensive end of the court is Carsen Edwards who has been inconsistent this season: he entered the Big Dance by shooting just 34% from the field in the Big Ten while making only 30% of his 3-pointers against Big Ten foes. After shooting only 37.7% from the field and scoring at just a 0.94 Points-Per-Possession pace in their opening round win over Old Dominion, the Boilermakers have exploded on offense with a 53.7% field goal percentage in their win over Villanova before making 54% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last six games in their victory over the Volunteers. Purdue has made 31 of their 61 shots from behind the arc over their last two games — and, needless to say, if they continue to shoot 50.8% from 3-point land, they will win this game too. But now the Boilermakers are facing the nation’s second most difficult team to convert 3s against as Virginia’s opponents are making only 28.2% of their shots from behind the arc. Purdue would be more likely to continue their shooting spree if they were playing at home where they convert 39.3% of their 3-pointers. But on the road, the Boilermakers make only a pedestrian 35.8% of their 3-pointers which ranks 74th in the country. Purdue experiences the 344th biggest drop in overall efficiency on both ends of the court when playing on the road in hostile environments or neutral courts. They have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 120s. Defense is also an issue for the Boilermakers who rank 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. While that is a solid ranking, it begins to stand out when we are down to the final eight teams in the tournament. Purdue’s effectiveness on defense owes much to their ability to force turnovers in 18.9% of their opponent’s possessions. However, they face a Virginia team now that ranks 13th in the nation by turning the ball over in 14.9% of their opponent’s possessions. What is worrisome for the Boilermakers in this matchup is that they have an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 49.0% which is 97th in the nation — and they rank 169th in the nation by allowing their opponents to hit 34.3% of their 3-point attempts. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a game where they allowed at least 90 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a game where at least a combined 175 points were scored. Virginia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory by 6 points or less. They survived their game with Oregon despite making only 35.7% from the field which was the worst shooting effort in their last twenty-six contests. This Cavaliers’ team is the best offensive unit in the Tony Bennett era at Virginia. They rank 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while also ranking 7th in the nation by making 39.6% of their 3-pointers. This team looks due for an offensive explosion — and it will likely be led by Kyle Guy who has missed 23 of his 26 shots from behind the arc in this tournament despite his 42.7% shooting clip from 3-point land this season. Even if the Cavaliers do not get their offensive clicking tonight, their defense should lead them to a point spread cover. Virginia also ranks 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have held their last five opponents to just 56.2 PPG. Gardner Webb’s 56 points in the opening game of the NCAA Tournament is the most points that the Cavs have allowed in their last three games — and they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not allowing at least 60 points in three straight games. Virginia has only covered the point spread twice in their last six games — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. The Cavaliers have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road against teams outside the ACC.
FINAL TAKE: The way to defeat Virginia’s Pack-Line defense is to shoot over it — but that is much easier said than done. Purdue runs a very efficient offense due to the outstanding schemes drawn up by their head coach Matt Painter. But the Boilermakers lack the players who can create scoring opportunities in isolation. Texas Tech demonstrated how a Pack-Line defense can overwhelm opponents whose offense relies on strong tactics when they suffocated the Michigan offense orchestrated by John Beilein. 25* CBB TBS-TV Game of the Year with the Virginia Cavaliers (682) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (681). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-30-19 |
Texas Tech v. Gonzaga UNDER 140 |
Top |
75-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (683) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (684). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (29-6) reached the Elite Eight on Thursday with their 63-44 upset win over Michigan as a 2-point underdog. Gonzaga (33-3) joined them in the Elite Eight with their 72-58 win over Florida State on Thursday as a 7.5-point favorite. This West regional contest takes place in Anaheim.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Red Raiders absolutely stifled the Wolverines offense in that game as they held them to just a 32.3% shooting percentage while watching them miss 18 of their 19 shot from behind the arc. Texas Tech not only has the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation but they rank as the second-best all-time defense according to metrics guru Ken Pomeroy since he started measuring those numbers in 2002. The Red Raiders have held their last five opponents to just 38.0% shooting from the field which has translated into only 62.2 PPG. Texas Tech has then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. The Pack-Line defense that head coach Chris Beard deploys is very difficult to prepare for — and they have played 31 of their last 45 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. The Under is also a decisive 46-21-1 in this team’s last 68 games against teams outside the Big 12 that are less familiar with their defensive schemes. But the concern for this Red Raiders team is their ability to score baskets themselves. Texas Tech scored only 24 points in the first half against a tough Wolverines defense — and they have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. They will be facing another outstanding defensive team in the Bulldogs who hold their opponents to just 38.7% shooting from the field. The Red Raiders have played 9 of their last 10 games away from home Under the Total against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 39% or less. Texas Tech has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. Additionally, the Red Raiders have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the Big Dance — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or a favorite of no more than 6 points. The Bulldogs have then top Adjusted Offensive Efficiency numbers in the nation — but they will be challenged by this elite Red Raiders’ defense. Gonzaga’s offense slows down if point guard Josh Perkins has to overcome pesky defensive ball hawks — and Texas Tech has that type of player in Matt Mooney. With their offensive prowess gets most of the attention, the Bulldogs defense is under appreciated as they rank 12th in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency. With Killian Tillie back in the mix after being out with an injury, a strength of this group is that they have athletic players that can effectively play off switches. The Red Raiders make 47.2% of their shots — but Gonzaga has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams that shoot at least 45% from the field. The Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Gonzaga will want to push the pace to generate scoring opportunities in transition as they play the 7th fastest tempo in the nation. This is why the Total is set in the 130s. The Bulldogs will struggle to score in their half-court sets — but the Red Raiders will also struggle as well. 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (683) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (684). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-29-19 |
Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Duke |
Top |
73-75 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 9:39 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (669) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (670). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (26-8) has won four of their last five games with their 67-58 win over Liberty last Sunday as a 9.5-point favorite. Duke (31-5) survived a big scare last Sunday to advance to the Sweet Sixteen with their 77-76 win over Central Florida as a 13-point favorite. This East regional matchup takes place in Washington D.C.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Duke has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. And while the Blue Devils have only covered the point spread once in their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Duke is uber-talented but their formula for success is antithetical to modern basketball that maximizes 3-point shooting. The Blue Devils only make 30.7% of their 3-pointers which ranks 329th in the nation — and they do not have a player in their regular rotation that makes more than 33% of their shots from behind the arc. One of the things that the Knights did well is to pack the paint and dare Duke to shoot from outside. They had their big man, Tacko Fall, barely shadow freshman Tre Jones while begging him to shoot from outside — and missed eight of his nine shots from behind the arc. Expect Virginia Tech to replicate this strategy as Jones is shooting only 23.2% from the field. The Blue Devils are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the NCAA Tournament, Furthermore, Duke is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral court. Virginia Tech is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread win. Justin Robinson seems to be in fine shape after he returned for the NCAA Tournament after being out with an injury — he scored 13 points on Sunday. This is the type of team that can make trouble for the Dukies because they rank 9th in the nation by making 39.5% of their shots from behind the arc — and they are making 42% of their 3-pointers so far in the NCAA Tournament. Head coach Buzz Williams will be thrilled to trade 3-pointers with Zion Williamson scoring buckets in the paint. He has a diverse lineup with Robinson back in the mix with four players that score at least 13 PPG. The Hokies rank 12th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they are also outstanding on the other end of the court as they rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Virginia Tech allows only 61.7 PPG which is ninth best in the nation. They have allowed only 52 and 58 points in the first two games of the Big Dance — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 65 points in their last two games. The Hokies have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court. And while they make 47.2% of their shots from the field, the Blue Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who shoot at least 45% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech will not lack for confidence in this game as they defeated Duke back on February 26th by a 77-72 score as a 3-point underdog. The Blue Devils did not have an injured Williamson in that game but the Hokies were also without Robinson. With four freshman playing key roles, this Duke team is very young while Virginia has three seniors and a junior in the core of their rotation — and this experience edge should help them keep this game very close (especially because 3-pointers count for one more point that 2-pointers). 25* CBB Sweet Sixteen Underdog of the Year with the Virginia Tech Hokies (669) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (670). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-29-19 |
Auburn v. North Carolina UNDER 164 |
Top |
97-80 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:29 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (673) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (674). THE SITUATION: Auburn (28-9) reached the Sweet Sixteen last Saturday with their 89-75 win over Kansas as a 2.5-point favorite. North Carolina (29-6) joined them on Sunday in the Sweet Sixteen with their 81-59 victory over Washington as an 11.5-point favorite. These two teams meet in Kansas City for this Midwest region showdown.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Auburn shot 52.5% from the field against the Jayhawks in what was the best shooting effort in their last eighteen games. The Tigers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Auburn has also played 7 of their 11 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. With both these teams loving to play at a fast pace while scoring many of their baskets in transition, it is tempting to think the final score will finish well above the Total. The Tigers get over 20% of their points from transition which places them seventh in the nation in that metric. But head coach Bruce Pearl may decide it is a losing battle to getting into a drag race with the Tar Heels who thrive in transition and are one of the six teams in the country that generate more points than Auburn that way. Duke also scores more points in transition than the Tigers — and Pearl had his team slow things down when they played earlier this season. That contest saw a moderate 71 possessions in that game with the result being a 78-72 win over the Blue Devils. Expect Pearl to slow the pace of this game down as well with the hopes that his team’s 3-point shooting and ability to force turnovers will make the winning difference. North Carolina averages 67 shots per game which translates into 86.0 PPG. Auburn has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams that score at least 84 PPG — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 62 shots per game. Furthermore, the Tigers have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road against teams who are winning at least 80% of their games. And in their last 19 games with the Total set in the 160s, Auburn has played 14 of these games Under the Total. North Carolina has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 160 to 169.5 point range. The Tar Heels have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, North Carolina has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. While the Tar Heels are a high-scoring team, their good play on the defensive end of the court is under-appreciated. North Carolina is 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have held their last five opponents to just a 40.1% field goal percentage. But the Tar Heels are only making 44.6% of their shots over their last five contests which is a few notches below their 46.5% mark for the season. Moving forward, North Carolina has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. Additionally, the Tar Heels have played 5 straight games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: With the Total set in the mid-160s for this game, expect Auburn to try to slow things down to keep the Tar Heels offense in check. 25* CBB TBS-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (673) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-28-19 |
Oregon v. Virginia -8 |
Top |
49-53 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 9:59 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (654) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (653). THE SITUATION: Virginia (31-3) has won eleven of their last twelve games after their 63-51 win over Oklahoma on Sunday as a 10.5-point favorite. Oregon (25-12) has won ten straight games with their 73-54 win over UC-Irvine on Sunday as a 4.5-point favorite. This South regional game will be played at the Yum-Yum Center in Louisville.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: We have been this Oregon team for a handful of nice wins during the Pac-12 season when it became evident to me that head coach Dana Altman had made some effective changes with this team after dealing with some injuries earlier in the season. But the lone double-seeded team in the Sweet Sixteen is due for a rude awakening now. Give the Ducks credit for their continued improvement — but winning eight straight games in a subpar Pac-12 before defeating a regressing Wisconsin team before another double-digit seed in UC-Irvine is not the most challenging schedule. Virginia will be, by far, the best team that this Oregon squad has faced all season. First and foremost, the Ducks are going to struggle to score points against this outstanding Cavaliers’ Pack-Line defense. Oregon is just 72nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they ranked 8th in the Pac-12 in that metric. This is not a good shooting team as they rank 109th in the nation with a 52.1% effective field goal percentage with that mark dropping to a 51.0% mark in Pac-12 play. The Ducks only make 35.1% of their 3-pointers which ranks 133rd in the nation — and that mark dropped to a 33.9% mark in Pac-12 action. They only pull down 29.8% of their missed shots which is 115th in the nation — and that mark, too, fell in conference play to a 28.9% mark. While Oregon’s offensive efficiency has been better during their ten-game winning streak, their lack of a go-to scorer remains an issue. And Oregon ranks 272nd in the nation in free throw rate. Virginia’s Pack-Line defense has stymied far more explosive offenses. What is the Ducks’ Plan B if their shots are not falling? It will now be difficult to force turnovers to get extra possessions against Virginia who ranked 14th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 14.9% of their possessions. The Cavaliers also ranked 3rd in the ACC in limiting their opponents to pulling down only 26.0% of their missed shots. Virginia out-rebounded their opponents by +5.2 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after out-rebounding their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG. Clearly, the formula for success for Altman tonight will be by frustrating the Cavs with his matchup zone defense. The Ducks have held their last seven opponents to shooting no better than 40% from the field — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing at least their last four opponents to shoot at least 40% from the field. Virginia head coach Tony Bennett is well-versed in combatting zone defenses from the rigors of ACC play over the years — particularly with the Syracuse 2-3 zone, the matchup zones that Rick Pitino would deploy when he was the steward at Louisville, and with Duke using zone defenses over the last few seasons against them. The Cavaliers usually thrive against fellow elite defensive teams. Oregon holds their opponents to just 62.5 PPG along having an opponents’ field goal percentage of 39.9%. Virginia has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams with an opponents’ field goal percentage no higher than 42% — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who do not allow more than 64 PPG. The Ducks have held their last six opponents to just a 23% shooting percentage from behind the arc — but Virginia is 6th in the nation by making 40.1% of their 3-pointers with four different players each nailing at least 40% of these shots. I suspect that the Cavaliers may be due for an offensive explosion tonight. In their scare against Gardner-Webb last Friday, Virginia committed 15 turnovers, shot just 30% from behind the arc, and made only 62% of their free throws — yet they still scored at a 1.13 Points-Per-Possession rate. Then against a Top-25 Sooners’ defense on Sunday, the Cavs scored at a 1.12 PPP rate despite their top scorer, Kyle Guy, missing all ten of his 3-pointers. Virginia still won both those games by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning their last two games by at least 10 points. The Cavaliers have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the ACC. The low Total may entice some bettors to take the 8-9 points with Oregon — but that logic is typically Fool’s Gold when fading Virginia. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games with the Total set at no higher than 129.5 — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a victory where no more than 115 combined points were score. Virginia ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and these efficiency numbers are what point to their point spread victories even in slower tempo contests.
FINAL TAKE: Oregon’s offense is dictated by senior guard Peyton Pritchard — but he will have his hands full with the Cavs’ pesky 5’9 defender in Kihei Clark. Virginia’s NCAA Tournament struggles have often been mental — but I think the new challenge of the Ducks’ matchup zone will help them focus on executing their tasks at hand rather than worry about not fulfilling their vast potential. 25* CBB Sweet Sixteen Game of the Year with the Virginia Cavaliers (654) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (653). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-28-19 |
Florida State v. Gonzaga UNDER 148.5 |
Top |
58-72 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:09 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (655) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (656). THE SITUATION: Florida State (29-7) reached the Sweet Sixteen with their 90-62 blowout win over Murray State as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Gonzaga (32-3) joined them in the Sweet Sixteen with an 83-71 win over Baylor as a 14-point favorite on Saturday. This West regional game is being played in Anaheim.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seminoles shots 50.7% from the field against the Racers on the strength of nailing 11 of their 27 shots (40.7%) of their shots from behind the arc. They are unlikely to replicate that effort tonight against this Bulldogs team that ranks 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Gonzaga is even better in defending the half-court as they rank 7th in the nation with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 44.0% — and they also rank 21st in the nation by limiting their opponents to just a 30.5% shooting mark from behind the arc. Despite torching the nets against Murray State, Florida State is making only 42.8% of their shots over their last five games — and they rank just 210th in the nation by making only 33.7% of their 3-pointers. The Seminoles raced out to a 50-34 halftime lead on Saturday in that game — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after enjoying at least a 15 point lead at halftime of their last game. That result finished well above the 146.5 point total — but Florida State has then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road after a game that finished Over the Total. And while the Bulldogs have an opponents’ field goal percentage of 38.7%, the Seminoles have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams that do not allow their opponents to make more than 38% of their shots. Additionally, Florida State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. The Bulldogs have given up only 23 and 17 points in the first half of their first two games in the NCAA Tournament — and they have then played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half of their last two games. However, it is Gonzaga’s 60-47 loss to Saint Mary’s in the West Coast Conference championship game which may have borne the fruit for how Florida State head coach Leonard Hamilton will have his team play. Admittedly, Hamilton will have his team play at a much faster pace than the crawl that the Gaels usually engage. But Saint Mary’s found success in dropping their guards off ball screens who allowed them to contest 2-point shots that frustrated the Bulldogs. Gonzaga point guard Josh Perkins also was bothered by the Gaels’ pressure they applied against him — and Perkins is susceptible to having very bad games. When that happens, the Zags’ offense can stall. Hamilton has five tall guards with length who can throw at Perkins with pressure to veer the Bulldogs offensive flow off balance. Florida State has the tenth best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation with their outstanding athleticism and length — and Hamilton can play position-less basketball with his one through five players all being able to switch off ball screens. Furthermore, the Seminoles out-rebound their opponents by +4.9 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Gonzaga has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams that out-rebound their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG. Additionally, the Bulldogs have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams outside the West Coast Conference.
FINAL TAKE: The Total for this game is set in the high-140s because both teams like to play at a quick tempo. But both defenses should have the upper hand in this contest — so expect a lower-scoring game. 25* CBB Sweet Sixteen Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (655) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (656). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-27-19 |
Lipscomb v. NC State UNDER 163 |
Top |
94-93 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Lipscomb Bisons (625) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (626). Lipscomb (27-7) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the NIT on Saturday with their 88-69 upset win at UNC-Greensboro as a 2-point underdog. NC State (24-11) joined them in the Quarterfinals with their 78-77 victory over Harvard on Sunday as a 9.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Lipscomb has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road. The Bison has also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road after a victory on the road. This team stays on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total. Lipscomb has also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. The Bison led the Ohio Valley Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They limit their home hosts this season to just 40% shooting from the field. This team will be challenged by the Wolfpack who led the ACC by pulling down 34.9% of their missed shots — but Lipscomb is very good at defending their defensive glass. The Bison are 14th in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding only 22.4% of their missed shots. Furthermore, the Bison have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 160s. NC State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when the Total was set in the 160 to 169.5 point range. And while the Wolfpack have not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread for three straight contests. NC State shot only 40% from the field in their win over Harvard. Over their last five games, the Wolfpack are making only 40.9% of their shots. They survived the Crimson Tide despite allowing them to make 52.7% of their shots. Yet NC State has played better defense as of late as they have held their last five opponents to just a 41.0% shooting clip which is a bit better this than their 43.9% opponents’ field goal percentage for the season. Now the Wolfpack return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 10 home games as a pick ‘em or favorite laying no more than 6 points, NC State has played 9 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is set in the 160s since both these teams play at a fast pace. Despite that up-tempo play in this game, expect a lower scoring game. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Lipscomb Bisons (625) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-26-19 |
Wichita State v. Indiana -3.5 |
Top |
73-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (618) minus the points versus the Wichita State Shockers (617). Indiana (19-15) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the NIT on Saturday with their 63-60 victory at home over Arkansas as a 5.5-point favorite. Wichita State (21-14) joined them in the Quarterfinals on Sunday when they upset Clemson on the road by a 63-55 score as a 7-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana should build off the momentum of their narrow victory over the Razorbacks over the weekend as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games after a win by 3 points or less. The Hoosiers have also covered the point spread in 7 straight home games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Indiana defeated Arkansas despite making only 41.2% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Yet the Hoosiers are still making 49.3% of their shots over their last five games. They have the advantage of staying at home for the third straight game in this tournament where they will be favored for the third straight time — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 home games after playing their last two games at home where they were laying the points. Indiana is 15-5 on their home court this season — and they are outscoring their opponents by +10.5 PPG. The Hoosiers make 48.1% of their shots at home — but they also play very good defense in Bloomington as they are holding their visitors to just 62.9 PPG on 39.9% shooting from the field. This team ranks 29th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Indiana has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court. The Hoosiers have covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, Indiana has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Big Ten. Their star freshman, Romeo Langford, remains questionable for this game with his back injury — but they have played their previous two games in the NIT without him already. Wichita State has pulled off two straight upsets in this tournament as their win at Clemson was preceded by an upset win at Furman. But the Shockers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing their last two games as an underdog. Playing their third straight game on the road on short rest will likely catch up with this team. Wichita State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games on the road after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games after a game where they did not allow more than 55 points in their last contest. And in their last 8 games when playing just their second game in three days on the road, the Shockers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests. Head coach Gregg Marshall has done a great job in getting improvement out of his young team after seeing all five of his starters graduate last season. But this team struggles to score baskets — they make only 39.4% of their shots when away from home. Wichita State went to the free throw line 21 times less than the Tigers did not Sunday which may be a bad sign for them moving forward as they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a game where they attempted at least 20 fewer free throws than their opponent. The Hoosiers were fourth in the Big Ten in free throw rate — so they should have a big advantage in the free throw department tonight.
FINAL TAKE: While I am impressed with the continued improvement of Wichita State this season, this is a difficult challenge for them to play on the road for a third straight game in this tournament as an underdog. With the opportunity to play in Madison Square Garden in the Semifinals of the NIT, this should be a motivated Indiana team — and their second-year head coach, Archie Miller, needs his team to get more postseason experience. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Indiana Hoosiers (618) minus the points versus the Wichita State Shockers (617). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-25-19 |
Norfolk State v. Colorado -13.5 |
Top |
60-76 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Colorado Buffaloes (602) minus the points versus the Norfolk State Spartans (601). Colorado (22-12) has won six of their last seven games with their 78-73 win over Dayton as a 4.5-point favorite last Tuesday in the opening round of the NIT. Norfolk State (22-13) upset an Alabama team by an 80-79 score in overtime as a 16-point underdog in their gym last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUFFALOES MINUS THE POINTS: Norfolk State shocked a Crimson Tide team that was one of the four number one seeds in this tournament. It is not uncommon for teams that failed to get off the bubble and into the NCAA Tournament then show little interest in exerting much effort in the NIT — especially on those opening Tuesday games just 48 hours after the deflating news that they were not selected for the Big Dance. Alabama then fired their head coach, Avery Johnson, later in the week. But the Spartans will be facing an engaged opponent in this game. Norfolk State’s twenty-two wins came from the 5th easiest schedule in college basketball according to metrics guru Ken Pomeroy. Even with that soft schedule, the Spartans rank 282nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and rank 199nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Norfolk State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 boarded games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Spartans have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road boarded games after winning three of their last four games — and they are just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 boarded games after a point spread win. Colorado has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. They get to host this second-round game given the Crimson Tide being upset as the top seed in their bracket. The Buffaloes have a strong home-court advantage — they are 14-3 at home this season with an average winning margin of +11.7 PPG. They score 80.2 PPG on their home court while making 48.8% of their shots. Colorado has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. The Buffaloes should control the boards in this contest as they pull down 31.4% of their missed shots — and Norfolk State ranks 220th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 29.0% of their missed shots. The Spartans also commit tons of fouls — they rank 338th in the nation with an opponent’s Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 42.7%. Colorado makes 75.1% of their free throws which is 38th in the nation. The Buffaloes made 16 of their 18 free throws (89%) against the Flyers last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after making at least 88% of their free throws in their last game. Norfolk State will struggle to score points against this Colorado team that ranks 40th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. And while the Spartans make 37.4% of their 3-pointers, the Buffaloes also ranks 39th in the nation with their opponents making only 31.6% of their 3-pointers. Colorado has also held their last five opponents to shooting just 40.8% from the field. Norfolk State is shooting just 40.6% from the field over their last five games. The Buffaloes are laying around 14 points in this game — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as a double-digit favorite.
FINAL TAKE: It is also a challenge for east coast teams to adjust to playing in the high altitude in Boulder. Head coach Tad Boyle missed the postseason for the first time in eight seasons at Colorado last season — and with his top seven rotation players all coming back next year, this tournament is an opportunity for this team to take the next step to prepare for a possible NCAA Tournament bid next year. 25* CBB NIT Round Two Game of the Year with the Colorado Buffaloes (602) minus the points versus the Norfolk State Spartans (601). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-24-19 |
Cal-Irvine +5 v. Oregon |
Top |
54-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the UC-Irvine Anteaters (873) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (874). THE SITUATION: UC-Irvine (31-5) has won seventeen straight games after the upset Kansas State on Friday by a 70-64 score as a 4-point underdog. Oregon (24-12) has won nine straight games after they upset Wisconsin on Friday by a 72-54 score as a 2-point underdog. This South regional game is being played in San Jose.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ANTEATERS PLUS THE POINTS: UC-Irvine will enter this game with tons of confidence that they can advance to the Sweet Sixteen. They are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. This team thrives with their play on defense. They lead the nation by holding their opponents to just a 40.7% shooting percentage inside the arc as they are buoyed by three giant rim protectors 6’9 or taller led by the 6’10 Jonathan Galloway. They held Kansas State on Friday to just a 43.7% shooting clip inside the arc. Head coach Russell Turner ensures that at least one of these three players is on the court at all times. The Anteaters also defend the perimeter as they hold their opponents to just a 33.2% shooting percentage inside the arc. UC-Irvine is also a quality offensive team that does plenty of things well on that side of the court. With their size, the Anteaters are 32nd in the nation by pulling down 33.5% of their missed shots. UC-Irvine led the Big West Conference by making 52.4% of their shots inside the arc — and they make a healthy 36.1% of their 3-pointers. The Anteaters play at the 275th slowest pace in the nation — yet they still manage to score 72.8 PPG. Over their last six games, UC-Irvine has raised their scoring average to 82.6 PPG. This balance on offense and defense has helped them cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Anteaters have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em. And in their last 11 games with the Total set at 129.5 or lower, UC-Irvine has covered the point spread 10 times. Dana Altman has done a great job with his Oregon team. His decision at the beginning of the Pac-12 season to have his team press more was an effective way to create more scoring opportunities for his challenged shooting team. The Ducks’ defense also improved when Altman inserted the 6’9 freshman Francis Okoro into the starting lineup. But winning eight games in a row against suspect Pac-12 competition needs to be taken with a grain of salt. And while I strongly endorsed Wisconsin to cover the point spread on Friday, I was anxious to bet against them in this round given the deterioration of Ethan Happ’s game for the Badgers (his shooting woes had become a negative). I think the Oregon bubble gets burst against this outstanding Anteaters defense. The Ducks made 54.9% of their shots against Wisconsin which was the best shooting effort for them in their last thirteen games. Oregon ranks 99th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and that number drops to 129th in the nation when they playing away from Eugene. This Ducks team just does not do many things well on that side of the court. They ranked 9th in the Pac-12 with an effective field goal percentage of 51.0 while ranking 7th in that mediocre conference in offensive rebounding rate and 11th in getting to the free throw line. They also made only 66.7% of their free throws in conference play. Oregon has made 9 of 11 and 20 of 22 shots at the charity stripe in each of their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after making at least 78% of their free throws in two straight games. The Ducks have only scored 25 and 28 points in the first half of their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score at least 30 points in the first half of their last two games. Oregon was 2nd in the Pac-12 by forcing turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions — but UC-Irvine turned the ball in just 16.0% of their possessions in conference play. The Anteaters allow only 63.3 PPG — and the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams who do not allow more than 64 PPG. And in their last 13 games played on a neutral court as a favorite laying 3.5 to 6 points, Oregon has failed to cover the point spread 8 times.
FINAL TAKE: Oregon plays at the 318th slowest pace in the nation — so this shapes up to be a slog between two strong defensive teams. The Ducks are overrated by those observers who failed to appreciate the moves Altman made to make his team better during conference play. This should be a coin flip game that the Anteaters can pull out — making their 4-5 points as the underdog very valuable. 25* CBB Bailout Game of the Year with the UC-Irvine Anteaters (873) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (874). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-24-19 |
Washington v. North Carolina UNDER 151 |
Top |
59-81 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 2:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (867) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (868). THE SITUATION: Washington (27-8) has won three of their last four games with their 78-61 upset victory over Utah State on Friday as a 3.5-point underdog. North Carolina (28-6) has won nine of their last ten games with their 88-73 victory over Iona on Friday as a 24.5-point favorite. This Midwest regional game is being played in Columbus, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies made 49% of their shots against the Aggies which was the best shooting mark in the last five games. That was an outlier effort for this challenged team on offense — Washington ranks 109th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while also ranking 102nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 52.3%. Overall, the Huskies score 70.1 PPG on 45% shooting from the field — but those numbers drop to just 63.4 PPG along with a 41.0% shooting mark when playing away from home. Washington has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while that game finished Over the 136 point total, the Huskies have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. What this Washington team thrives at is playing defense as they rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Senior guard Matisse Thybulle may be the best defensive player in college basketball. Head coach Mike Hopkins was a long time assistant of Jim Boeheim at Syracuse so this team deploys a similar 2-3 matchup-zone which can be very difficult to prepare for in tournament action on the weekend with the short turn-around time. The Huskies have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. Furthermore, Washington has played a decisive 37 of their last 55 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the Pac-12. North Carolina made 46.7% of their shots over the Gaels on Friday which was the best shooting mark in their last eight games. The Tar Heels are only making 43% of their shots over their last five games. North Carolina has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 15 points. The Tar Heels did control the glass against Iona as they pulled down 52 rebounds. The vulnerability of the 2-3 zone is that it leaves open space in front of the basket for offensive rebounds. Even if North Carolina gets plenty of second-chance opportunities, it helps the Under since it extends possession length. The Tar Heels have played 13 of the last 17 games Under the Total after rebounding at least 52 boards in their last contest. They have also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing their second game in three days. What is underappreciated about this North Carolina team this season is just how good they are playing on defense. Roy Williams’ team ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have held their last five opponents to just a 39.2% field goal percentage. This strong defensive play has helped the Tar Heels plate 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. Furthermore, North Carolina has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament.
FINAL TAKE: Washington will try to slow this game down to limit possessions. With the Total creeping into the 150s, expect a lower scoring game. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (867) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (868). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-23-19 |
Murray State v. Florida State UNDER 148 |
Top |
62-90 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Murray State Racers (839) and the Florida State Seminoles (840). THE SITUATION: Murray State (28-4) pulled the upset in the Round of 64 with their 83-64 win over Marquette as a 3-point underdog on Thursday. Florida State (28-7) has won seven of their last eight games with their 76-69 victory over Vermont as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday. This West regional game takes place in Hartford.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Racers shocked a strong scoring team in the Golden Eagles by holding them to just 32.4% shooting from the field. While Ja Morant gets all the headlines for this team as he pushes up his NBA draft stock, what is underappreciated about this upstart mid-major is their strong half-court defense. Head coach Matt McMahon’s team ranks 18th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.1% — and they are also 3rd in the nation with their opponents making just 28.4% of their 3-pointers. When playing away on the road or neutral courts, the Racers’ opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45% is 6th best in the country. The Seminoles can struggle with their shooting as their effective field goal percentage of 50.5% ranks 180th in the nation — and they make only 33.4% of their 3-pointers which is 223rd in the nation. Murray State has played 17 of their last 22 games on the road Under the Total after an upset victory. The Racers have also played 5 straight games Under the Total on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or underdog of no more than 6 points. Additionally, Murray State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher. And while the Racers made 9 of their 18 shots from behind the arc against Marquette, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their 3-pointers. Murray State does not rely on the 3 — they are making just 34.8% of their 3-pointers which is 149th in the nation. Led by Morant’s ability to create his own shot or dish to an open teammate, the Racers rank 5th in the nation by making 57.2% of their shots inside the arc. But Morant and this team may face their most difficult test of the season against the deep Seminoles team loaded with long and athletic defenders. Florida State is 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Seminoles’ defense is outstanding inside the arc as they hold their opponents to just a 46.0% field goal percentage with their 2-pointers which is 27th best in the country — and that mark lowered to a measly 41.9% clip in ACC play. Florida State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while their game with Vermont finished Over the 133 point total, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after a game that finished Over the Total. Furthermore, the Seminoles have played 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total played on a neutral court with the number set in the 140s. And while Murray State outscores their opponents by +15.6 PPG, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +12.0 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Morant is a star in the making — but he will be harassed by a horde of tough defenders from Florida State who will try to coax him to rely on his teammates. The Seminoles will also struggle to score in their half court offense. 25* CBB TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Murray State Racers (839) and the Florida State Seminoles (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-22-19 |
Oregon v. Wisconsin -2 |
Top |
72-54 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (826) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (825). Wisconsin (23-10) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 67-55 loss in the Semifinals of the Big Ten tournament to Michigan State as a 5.5-point underdog. Oregon (23-12) has won eight straight games after their 68-48 victory over Washington last Saturday as a 2-point favorite to win the Pac-12 tournament. This South regional game is being played in San Jose.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Ducks are a very trendy pick in this game with many bettors discovering the continued improvement of Dana Altman’s team this season. Careful observers should have realized that this Oregon team changed their identity entering the Pac-12 season (after enduring some tough injuries especially to Bol Bol who suffered a season-ending foot injury) as Altman had his team deploy more full-court presses to create more offensive opportunities. The Ducks forced turnovers in 20.9% of their opponent’s possessions (50th in the nation) — and that number rose to a 21.9% mark in Pac-12 play. But this is a terrible draw for this strategy this afternoon as this Badgers’ team is very stingy with the basketball as they turn the ball over unjust 14.4% of their possessions which is 8th best in the country. Oregon enters this tournament as one of the hottest teams in college basketball — but let's remember that their wins were against suspect Pac-12 competition. I expect a big emotional letdown for this team now. They made 52.5% of their shots in their victory over Washington which was the best shooting mark in their last 12 games. The six-day break will likely cool off this team as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with a five or six-day break between games. And while the Ducks made 20 of their 22 free throws (91%) against the Huskies, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after making at least 88% of their free throws in their last game. This team will not get to the line 22 times today as the Badgers do not foul — they rank 20th in the nation with an opponent’s Free Throw Attempt to Field Goal Attempt ratio of 25.9%. This is a subpar scoring group that Altman has this season as they rank 108th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and just 8th in the Pac-12 in Adjusted Efficiency despite it being a down year for the conference. The Ducks usually do not get to the free throw line either as they ranked 11th in the Pac-12 in FTA: FGA ratio. Their 51.7% effective field goal percentage ranked 126th in the nation — and their offensive rebounding was just 7th in the Pac-12. Most of the Pac-12 teams are playing some version of a zone defense — so the tight man-to-man defense that the Badgers deploy will be a challenging look for them. Wisconsin plays outstanding defense — they rank 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also ranking 9th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44%. The Badgers hold their opponents to only 61.4 PPG along with a 39.3% field goal percentage. Altman’s teams tend to struggle against elite defensive opponents. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams who do not allow more than 64 PPG. The Ducks have held their last five opponents to no better than a 40% field goal percentage — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing at least their last four opponents to a 40% or less field goal percentage. Wisconsin makes 45.8% of their shots on offense — and Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after 15 games into the season against balanced teams who make at least 45% of their shots while holding their opponents to no better than 42% shooting from the field. The Badgers played one of their worst games of the season against the Spartans last Saturday (our Big Ten Tourney Game of the Year on Michigan State) as they shot just 35.3% while allowing Sparty to make 43.4% of their shots. That was Wisconsin’s worst shooting effort in ten games — and while that was not a bad defensive effort, per se, it was the highest field goal percentage they had allowed an opponent to make in their last eight contests. The Badgers made only 2 of their 19 (11%) of their shots from behind the arc in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not making more than 20% of their 3-pointers. Wisconsin has not covered the point spread in four of their last six games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. And in their last 8 games played on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite of no more than 6 points, the Badgers have covered the point spread 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin usually imposes their slow grinding pace on to their opponents. They are the more battle-tested team having played Virginia and Oklahoma in their non-conference schedule before battling Big Ten opponents in a 20-game schedule. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. And this Wisconsin team’s style frustrated the Ducks in the Round of 32 in both the 2014 and 2015 NCAA Tournaments. 25* CBB NCAA Tourney Round of 64 Game of the Year with the Wisconsin Badgers (826) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (825). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-21-19 |
Minnesota v. Louisville UNDER 137 |
Top |
86-76 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 12:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (773) and the Louisville Cardinals (774). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (21-13) enters the NCAA Tournament looking to bounce-back from a 76-49 loss to Michigan in the Semifinals of the Big Ten tournament last Saturday as a 9-point underdog. Louisville (20-13) has lost two of their last three games with their 83-70 loss to North Carolina last Thursday as a 7-point underdog. This East regional game is being played in Des Moines, Iowa.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Rick Pitino should have his team play tough defense after they allowed the Wolverines to make 51.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last ten games. The Golden Gophers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Minnesota has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. And while that game with Michigan finished below the 131 point total, the Golden Gophers have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road after a game that finished Under the Total. Pitino has this team playing better defense to close out the regular season (despite getting stung by Michigan). They have held their last five opponents to just a 42.9% field goal percentage — and those last five opponents made just 32.8% of their shots from behind the arc. Overall, Minnesota has the 40th best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation. But this team can struggle to score points especially on the road where they make only 40.7% of their shots which translates into just 63.6 PPG which is over 7 PPG below their season average. The Golden Gophers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 60% — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog. Louisville has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. First-year head coach Chris Miller has this team playing a tough pack-line defense that has the Cardinals ranked 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Louisville will be protecting the rim in this game and daring this Gophers team that makes just 32.1% of their 3-pointers (285th in the nation) to shooting from the outside. The Cardinals have held their last five opponents to just a 37.5% shooting percentage. But Louisville is only making 40.3% of their shots over that span. This team can struggle versus zone defenses that Pitino may have his team deploy at times. The Cardinals rely heavily on 3-point shooting as 43.7% of their shots from the field come from downtown (55th in the nation). But Minnesota defense the perimeter well as they ranked 27th in the nation by limiting their opponents to taking just 33.7% of their shots from behind the arc (27th in the nation) — and only 29.1% of their opponent's points come from 3s. Furthermore, Louisville has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams play a little slower than the national average of 17.5 seconds per possession. Look for Minnesota to play very physical against this Louisville team that is small and can be a bit soft. This should be a grinding low-scoring game to open the Round of 64. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (773) and the Louisville Cardinals (774). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-20-19 |
Arizona State v. St. John's +2.5 |
Top |
74-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the St. John’s Red Storm (714) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (713). THE SITUATION: St. John’s (21-12) limps into the NCAA Tournament having lost four of their last five games after their 86-54 loss to Marquette in the Big East tournament last Thursday as a 4-point underdog. Arizona State (22-10) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Friday with their 79-75 loss in overtime to Oregon as a 3-point favorite in the Pac-12 tournament. This First Four game is being played on a neutral court in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED STORM PLUS THE POINTS: St. John’s was the last team to make the NCAA Tournament — and considering that they have lost twelve of their last twenty-one games, it is easy to understand why bettors are scared-off this team. But the blank slate of the NCAA Tournament can often serve as a great elixir to break out of a losing streak — and rid the stench from a bad loss. The Red Storm has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, St. John’s has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 45 games when playing on the road after a loss by at least 25 points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss by at least 30 points. Furthermore, head coach Chris Mullin’s team has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after losing five or six of their last seven contests. They shot just 32.8% from the field against the Golden Eagles which was the worst shooting effort for them all season. The Red Storm made the Big Dance because they have accrued impressive wins against other NCAA Tournament teams in Villanova, Seton Hall, VCU, and Marquette twice. This team will have the best player on the court in Shamorie Ponds who is averaging 19.5 PPG along with 5.2 Assists-Per-Game — and he makes 81% of his free throws. Ponds has a very favorable defensive matchup tonight as he will likely be guarded by sophomore Remy Martin. I think the charity stripe plays a big role in tonight’s contest. The Sun Devils foul in bunches — they ranked 301st in the nation with an opponent’s Free Throw Attempt to Field Goal Attempt ratio of 38.6% with that mark rising to a 39.6% clip in Pac-12 play. When playing away from home, this Arizona State foul rate rises even more to a 41.2% mark. St. John’s made 74.0% of their free throws in Big East play so they have a great potential to generate plenty of points from the line. The Red Storm should also create additional scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers as they were second in the conference by forcing turnovers in 19.2% of their opponent’s possessions — and the Sun Devils turn the ball over in 19.1% of their conference possessions which ranked 8th. Additionally, St. John’s has struggled against bigger teams this season which makes sense since the tallest player in their rotation is 6’7. But while head coach Bobby Hurley like to play two bigs in his lineup, Arizona State does not have a player taller than 6’8 in their regular rotation. Mullin usually has his team roll out four guards to spread the court to give space for Ponds to create his own shot — and I suspect this scheme will dictate how the Sun Devils then play. Arizona State has won six of their last eight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. This is the second year in a row that this team is playing in Dayton in the First Four but this group for Hurley has four new starters from last year’s group. Yet the Sun Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games in first round of a tournament. This Arizona State team has been wildly inconsistent with bad losses to Vanderbilt, Princeton, and Washington State. They tend to struggle when forced into their half-court offense as their top two scorers, Martin and freshman Luguentz Dort, both shot under 41% from the field and just 33% from behind the arc. Much of the team’s offense comes in transition as they forced turnovers in 19.3% of their Pac-12 opponent’s possessions. But with their four guards, this Red Storm is very protective of the basketball as they are 6th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 14.1% of their possessions. The Sun Devils’ effective field goal rate of 50.8% ranks just 168th in the nation. Arizona State is going to get to the free throw line tonight — but they only make 67.1% of their shots from the charity stripe which ranks 310th in the nation. This team also allowed their Pac-12 opponents to make 48% of their shots from the field.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona State comes out of a weak Pac-12 this season — and they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams outside the Pac-12. St. John’s opportunity to redeem themselves from a disappointing beginning to March while also having the best player on the court in Ponds should make the difference. 25* CBB NCAA Tourney First Four Game of the Year with the St. John’s Red Storm (714) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (713). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-19-19 |
Dayton v. Colorado -4 |
Top |
73-78 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Colorado Buffaloes (692) minus the points versus the Dayton Flyers (691). THE SITUATION: Colorado (21-12) saw their five-game winning streak snapped on Friday with their 66-61 loss to Washington as a 2.5-point underdog in the Pac-12 tournament. Dayton (21-11) lost last Friday in the Atlantic 10 tournament to St. Louis by a 64-55 score despite being a 4-point favorite. Colorado hosts this first round game as the higher four seed.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUFFALOES MINUS THE POINTS: This Colorado was a young team this season with a core of sophomores who were starters last year in McKinley Wright IV, Tyler Bey, and Dallas Walton. This team played its basketball in the last month of the season for head coach Tad Boyle as they have won ten of their last thirteen contests. They return home to host this game where they are 13-3 with an average winning margin of +12.2 PPG. The Buffaloes score 80.4 PPG on their home court while making 49.1% of their shots from the field. They also hold their visitors to just 42.9% shooting from the field. Colorado usually retains a significant home-court edge against teams from the midwest and east since they are not familiar with playing in the higher altitude. The Buffaloes have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games on the road home court — and this includes them covering the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. This team continues to improve on the defensive end of the court as they have held their last five opponents to just a 37.0% shooting percentage. Colorado has held their last three opponents to a 39.6%., 34.0%, and 34.0% shooting percentages — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight home games after not allowing their last three opponents to make more than 40% of their shots from the field. The Buffaloes should thrive on the boards in this game against this Flyers dream that ranked 12th in the Atlantic 10 conference by allowing their opponents to pull down 29.1% of their missed shots. Colorado was 4th in the Pac-12 by rebounding 30.2% of their missed shots. The Buffaloes have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Dayton has overachieved late in the season by covering the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Furthermore, the Flyers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against non-conference opponents. Dayton thrives by making shots inside the arc where they rank 6th in the nation with 57.6% of their points coming from 2-pointers. But the Flyers struggle against good shooting opponents. The Buffaloes make 45.6% of their shots overall — and Dayton has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who make at least 45% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: The Flyers are a physical team — but I don’t like how that will translate in the thin air against this Buffaloes team that steadily improved this season. Look for Colorado to pull away in this game. 25* CBB NIT First Round Game of the Year with the Colorado Buffaloes (692) minus the points versus the Dayton Flyers (691). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-19-19 |
Belmont v. Temple OVER 155 |
Top |
81-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Belmont Bruins (671) and the Temple Owls (672). THE SITUATION: Belmont (26-5) was upset in the Finals of the Ohio Valley Conference tournament back on March 9th by a 77-65 score as a 2-point favorite. Temple (23-9) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Friday with their 80-74 upset loss to Wichita State as a 1.5-point favorite. The First Four games take place on a neutral court in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bruins shot only 39.1% from the field which was the worst field goal percentage for them in their last 15 games — their second-lowest shooting mark over that span was much higher at 47.3%). This uber-efficient Belmont team is 3rd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 57.8%. They execute Houston Rockets offensive basketball by shunning midrange jump shots for 3-pointers or shots at the rim: they are 2nd in the nation with a 59.5% shooting percentage inside the arc while also averaging 10.5 made 3-pointers per game. They also play at a fast pace as their 15.9 seconds per possession average is the 29th fastest in the nation — and that tempo increased in conference play where they averaged 15.2 seconds per possession. This up-tempo attack generated 64 shot attempts per game — and the Owls have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams that average at least 62 shots per game. The Bruins have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset loss by at least 10 points. And while Belmont has still covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after covering five or six of their last seven games. The Bruins should find plenty of success attacking the thin Temple frontline that is allowing their opponents to make 52.2% of their shots inside the arc which was second-to-last in the American Athletic Conference. Belmont averages a robust 87.4 PPG this season — and they have played 33 of their last 52 games Over the Total when favored. And while they have played three straight Unders, the Bruins have then played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Belmont has also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite laying no more than 6 points — and they have played their last three games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 6 points on a neutral court. Temple made only 39.1% of their shots in their loss to the Shockers on Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Owls has the third best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the AAC while averaging 74.8 PPG for the year. Their trio of starting guards, Shizz Alston, Jr., Quinton Rose, and Nate Pierre-Louis combined to average 49.5 PPG together. Temple has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while this is just their second game since March 9th, the Owls have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when playing no more than their second game in seven days. Furthermore, while Temple has won six of their last eight games, they have then played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Owls finished 3rd in the conference by making 35.3% of their 3-point shots — and this Bruins team allowed their OVC opponents to make 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc which was 9th in the conference. Belmont is an elite passing team that is 7th in the nation by assisting on 61.9% of their made field goals — and they average a 20 Assists-Per-Game. Temple has played 31 of their last 47 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that average at least 16 Assists-Per-Game. The Owls have also played 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, the Over is 16-4-1 in their last 21 games played on a neutral court — and they have played four of their last five games Over the Total when playing as an underdog or pick ‘em on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: These are two mediocre defensive teams. While Belmont had the 3rd best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Ohio Valley Conference, they were just 127th in that metric for the entire season. Temple ranked 7th in the American Athletic Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking 90th overall for the entire season. The Owls also played at the third fastest pace in a conference that has many teams play at a crawl. Expect a higher-scoring game. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Four Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Belmont Bruins (671) and the Temple Owls (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-16-19 |
San Diego State v. Utah State UNDER 135 |
Top |
57-64 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego State Aztecs (627) and the Utah State Aggies (628). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (21-12) reached the Finals of the Mountain West Conference tournament with their 65-56 upset win over Nevada yesterday as a 9-point underdog yesterday. Utah State (27-6) joined them with their 85-60 blowout win over Fresno State as a 4-point favorite yesterday. The MWC tournament takes place in the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas so this is a neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aztecs have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win over a conference rival. San Diego State has also played a decisive 15 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Aztecs made only 42.6% of their shots last night in their victory — yet that was the best shooting effort for them in their last four contests. San Diego State had made only 34.6% and 29.8% of their shots in their previous two contests — and they are shooting just 39.6% from the field over their last five games. This team is very susceptible to experience long scoring droughts. They rank 8th in the MWC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency as they struggle to shoot the basketball: they also rank 8th in the conference with an effective field goal percentage of 49.9%. Much of the Aztecs’ offense comes from second-chance opportunities as they rank 4th in the conference by pulling down 28.4% of their missed shots. But good luck with that against this Aggies team that leads the MWC by limiting their opponents to rebounding just 22.8% of their missed shots. San Diego State does play strong defense as they rank 2nd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have limited their last five opponents to just a 39.2% field goal percentage. Furthermore, the Aztecs have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. Utah State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Aggies have the best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the MWC. They have made at least 48.5% of their shots in three straight games while scoring at least 81 points in four straight games. But Utah State has then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after making at least 47% of their shots in three straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in three straight games. And while the Aggies have played four straight Overs, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Furthermore, Utah State has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games this season with the Aggies winning the last meeting by a 70-54 score on their home court back on February 26th. San Diego State has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego State Aztecs (627) and the Utah State Aggies (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-16-19 |
Tennessee v. Kentucky -1.5 |
Top |
82-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (612) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (611). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (27-5) advanced to the Semifinals of the SEC tournament yesterday with their 73-55 win over Alabama as a 12.5-point favorite yesterday. Tennessee (28-4) joined them in the Semifinals with their 83-76 victory over Mississippi State as a 5-point favorite yesterday. The SEC tournament is being played in Nashville so this is a true neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Kentucky should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. The Wildcats have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last contest. Kentucky also held the Crimson Tide to just a 30.4% field goal percentage — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing their last opponent to make more than 33% of their shots. Head coach John Calipari has his young team once again playing elite level defense — this group ranks 8th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also got a boost yesterday with the return of their senior guard Reid Travis who played 23 minutes and scored 8 points in the blowout win. Kentucky matches up well against this Volunteers’ team because they are prepared to exploit a few of the weaknesses of head coach Rick Barnes’ team. The Wildcats pull down 36.6% of their missed shots which is 10th best in the nation — and Tennessee allows their opponents to rebound 30.1% of their missed shots which is 259th in the country. Kentucky also gets to the free throw line as they rank 8th in the nation with a free throw attempt to field goal attempt ratio of 42.8% — and the Vols rank 233rd in the nation with an opponent’s FTA: FGA ratio of 34.5%. These characteristics have helped Calipari’s teams at Kentucky to go 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games played on a neutral court — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite of no more than 6 points. The Wildcats have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing their second game in three days. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing their second game in three days. The Volunteers have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. And in their last 7 games after winning at least four of their last five contests, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread 5 times. The Vols made 51.5% of their shots against the Bulldogs yesterday which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. And while Tennessee has played two straight games Over the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least two straight Overs. This Volunteers team is very tough to defeat at home in Knoxville where they are undefeated. But while their efficiency offensive performances remain consistent when playing on the road, their defensive efforts decline significantly. Tennessee ranks just 107th in defense when playing away from home — and since February 1st, while they rank 3rd in the nation in defense when playing at home, that number drops to 139th in defense when playing on the road. The Vols allow 77.9 PPG on the road with their opponents making 43.9% of their shots which are both well above the 67.9 PPG and 39.5% opponents field goal percent overall this season. And while Tennessee is uber-efficient on offense, their lack of a scorer who can create his own shot nor a pure outside shooter likely spells trouble against elite opponents. Only 31.7% of their points come from 3-pointers which is the 329th in the nation. Not surprisingly then, the Volunteers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher. Kentucky has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 80%.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games with Tennessee winning the most recent showdown by a 71-52 score in Knoxville as a 3-point favorite on March 2nd. The Wildcats were without an injured Travis in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge. 25* CBB SEC Tournament Game of the Year with the Kentucky Wildcats (612) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (611). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-16-19 |
Wisconsin v. Michigan State -4.5 |
Top |
55-67 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan State Wolverines (606) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (605). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (25-6) has won three straight games after they defeated Ohio State on Friday by a 77-70 score as a 10.5-point favorite. Wisconsin (22-9) joins them in the Semifinals of the Big Ten tournament with their 66-62 win over Nebraska on Friday as an 8-point favorite. The Big Ten tournament is taking place in the United Center in Chicago — so this is a neutral site for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Badgers are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games. While defeating the upstart Cornhuskers was a positive result, there are storm clouds surrounding the victory. Supposed Player of the Year candidate Ethan Happ only scored 4 points in this game while committing a whopping 7 turnovers in just 20 minutes of work. Happ has been the team’s leading scorer this season with his leadership for the team garnering national Player of the Year attention, his inability to shoot away from the rim has become a significant liability. Happ has only attempted five shots from behind the arc this year (missing all five). Even worse, Happ is making a woeful 46.8% of his free throws this season which has often compelled head coach Greg Gard to take him off the court in crucial situations. Wisconsin ranks only 9th in the Big Ten in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with this team often finding it difficult to score. Most of their offense comes from shooting 3s — they make 37.4% of their 3-pointers although that mark dropped to a 35.9% mark in Big Ten play. The Spartans defend the perimeter quite well — they ranked 3rd in the Big Ten by holding their opponents to just a 30.5% field goal percentage behind the arc. Michigan State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams who make at least 37% of their 3-point shots. The problems get even worse for the Badgers when getting closer to the basket. They rank 7th in the Big Ten by making 478% of their 2-point shots — and the Spartans interior defense is the second-best in the nation as they limit their opponents to just a 41.0% shooting percentage inside the arc. Overall, Michigan State has an opponent’s field goal percentage of 37.6% — and the Badgers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams who do not allow their opponents to make more than 39% of their shots. Wisconsin does not do other things to generate scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. They only pull down 22.4% of their missed shots which is second-to-last in the Big Ten. They also do not get to the free throw line as their free throw attempt to field goal attempt ratio of 27.4% is 12th in the conference. The matchup concerns for this team extend to other areas. This is one of head coach Tom Izzo’s best 3-point shooting teams in his tenure in East Lansing. Michigan State makes 38.2% of their shots from behind the arc while averaging 8-made 3-pointers per game — and the Badgers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams who average at least 8-made 3-pointers per contest. This Spartans team is also a typical Izzo team that hits the glass hard — they out-rebound their opponents by +9.1 Rebounds-Per-Game. Yet Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams who out-rebound their opponents by at least +7.0 RPG. Michigan State got a boost on Friday with the return of forward Nick Ward into their rotation after he missed a handful of games with an injury. Ward played well as he scored 8 points in 14 minutes of action. The Spartans have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. And while Michigan State has covered the point spread in six of their last eight games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. This is a very balanced team that ranks 4th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have a superstar leader at point guard in Cassius Winston. They also rank 22nd in the nation by pulling down 34.5% of their missed shots — and that number rose to a 35.1% mark in Big Ten play. A vulnerability this team has is that they turned the ball over in 18.8% of their possessions in the conference which was the eighth highest mark — but the Badgers are unlikely to exploit this weakness as they rank just 8th in the conference by forcing turnovers in just 16.8% of their opponent's possessions. Michigan State is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan State won the first meeting between these two teams in Madison by a 67-59 score. Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 encounters with the Spartans. With the Badgers’ best player in Happ now in a funk as they face a team that does not match up well with, expect Michigan State to be too much for this Wisconsin team. 25* CBB Big Ten Tournament Game of the Year with the Michigan State Wolverines (606) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (605). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-15-19 |
Fresno State +4 v. Utah State |
Top |
60-85 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (853) plus the points versus Utah State Aggies (854). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (23-8) has won four straight games with their 74-50 win over Air Force yesterday as a 10-point favorite yesterday. Utah State (26-6) has won eight straight games after their 91-83 win over New Mexico yesterday as a 13-point favorite yesterday. The Mountain West Conference tournament takes place at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas so this is a neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Fresno State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least 20 points. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after a win on the road by at least 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games after a win on the road by at least 15 points. This is a dangerous team led by two productive scoring guards in Braxton Huggins and Deshon Taylor who score 19.3 PPG and 18.4 PPG respectively. Fresno State leads the Mountain West Conference by making 39.1% of their shots from bind the arc. They nailed 16 of their 38 (41.2%) shots from 3-point land against the Falcons yesterday — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after making at least 10 shots from downtown in their last game. The Bulldogs also led the MWC by holding their opponents to just a 30.8% shooting mark from behind the arc. Fresno State has covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, Fresno State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road against a conference opponent. And the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games as an underdog. Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with no more than one day of rest between games. The Aggies have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning at least three straight games. And this team has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a victory against a Mountain West Conference opponent where they scored at least 80 points. Utah State has made at least 47.1% of their shots in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after making at least 47% of their shots in three games in a row. The Aggies have the top offense in the Mountain West Conference — but they are second-to-last in the conference by allowing their opponents to make 38.8% of their 3-point shots. And while Utah State is second in the MWC by pulling down 30.8% of their missed shots — but the Bulldogs do a pretty good job of protecting their defensive glass by rebounding 72.6% of their opponent’s missed shots. Furthermore, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Fresno State will be motivated to avenge a narrow 82-81 loss at home to Utah State back on February 5th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 3 points or less. These two teams split their two games in the regular season — but the Aggies may be feeling the pressure as a loss in this semifinals contest may push them off the NCAA Tournament bubble. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Game of the Year with the Fresno State Bulldogs (853) plus the points versus Utah State Aggies (854). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-15-19 |
Louisiana-Monroe v. Georgia Southern -2.5 |
Top |
67-81 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Georgia Southern Eagles (830) minus the points versus the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (829). Georgia Southern (20-11) enters the Sun Belt Conference tournament looking to bounce-back from a 90-85 upset loss at home to Georgia State as a 5.5-point favorite. UL-Monroe (18-14) has won three straight games after their 80-50 thrashing of Coastal Carolina yesterday as a 2.5-point favorite. The Sun Belt conference tournament takes place in New Orleans so this is a neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia Southern should respond to their loss last Saturday with a strong effort. They have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home to a conference rival. Furthermore, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on the road after a game where at least 175 combined points were scored. And while Georgia Southern has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. This team has a nice balance — they rank 2nd in the Sun Belt in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while also ranking 3rd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have made 52% of their shots over their last five games while also holding their last five opponents to just 43.6% shooting. The Eagles should be able to generate offense tonight as they rank 2nd in the Sun Belt by making 56.1% of their shots inside the arc — and this Warhawks team ranks last in the conference by allowing their opponents to make 54.9% of their 2-point shots. Georgia Southern has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court. UL-Monroe is likely due for a letdown after their big win yesterday — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Warhawks held Coastal Carolina to just a 29.5% field goal percentage in what was their best defensive effort of the season. But UL-Monroe has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after not allowing their last opponent to make more than 33% of their shots — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest. This defensive effort may have said more about the Coastal Carolina offense as the Warhawks rank last in the Sun Belt in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their conference opponents shot 47.6% from the field against them. UL-Monroe thrives by making 3-pointers — they rank 2nd in the Sun Belt by making 38.1% of their shots from behind the arc. But Georgia Southern defends the perimeter well as they rank 2nd in the conference by holding their opponents to just 31.5% shooting from the 3-point land. The Warhawks have the top Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the Sun Belt — and they make 45.4% of their shots from the field. But the Eagles have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams that make at least 45% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games but Georgia Southern will have revenge on their minds after an 88-79 loss to UL-Monroe back on February 8th. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Tournament Game of the Year with the Georgia Southern Eagles (830) minus the points versus the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (829). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-15-19 |
Florida State +8.5 v. Virginia |
Top |
69-59 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (839) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (840). THE SITUATION: Florida State (26-6) has won five straight games with their 65-63 upset win in overtime versus Virginia Tech yesterday as a 1-point underdog. Virginia (29-2) has won nine straight games after their 76-56 win over North Carolina State yesterday as an 11.5-point favorite. With the ACC tournament being played in Charlotte, this is a true neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES PLUS THE POINTS: Florida State is one of the most underrated teams in the nation. Head coach Leonard Hamilton returned basically the same team that made a run to the Elite Eight last season. The team struggled early while dealing with some injuries — but they have rattled off thirteen wins in their last fourteen contests as they have only lost once since January 20th. This team is very athletic with tons of length which wreaks havoc with opposing shooters. The Seminoles rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have held their last five opponents to just a 38.2% shooting percentage. Florida State proved their mental resolve in making two big shots at the end of regulation and in overtime to survive a very good Virginia Tech team. They should build off that momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset victory. They have held their last three opponents to no more than 64 points (despite two of those games needing overtime to resolve) — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 65 points in at least two straight games. Furthermore, the Seminoles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Florida State has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 42 games played on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or an underdog. This team can do things to create more scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. The Seminoles rank 42nd in the nation by pulling down 33.1% of their missed shots. They also rank 61st in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.5% of their opponent’s possessions. They present a very challenging matchup for the composition of this Virginia team. The Cavaliers’ pack-line defense suffocates opposing shooters — they lead the nation by holding their opponents to just a 26.5% shooting mark from behind the arc. But Florida State gets only 29.9% of their points from 3-point shooting. Instead, Hamilton loves getting his team racing up-and-down the court in transition — and Virginia ranks 335th in the nation in Points-Per-Possession allowed in transition. In the Cavaliers’ two losses to Duke, they surrendered 32 points generated from fast breaks. The slow pace the Cavaliers’ deploy will make it more difficult for them to cover this point spread in the 8 to 9 point range. Additionally, Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing their second game in three days. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in a tournament semifinal. And while the Cavs have played three straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after playing at least three straight Overs. Florida State’s athleticism typically fares well against teams like Virginia. The Cavaliers hold their opponents to just 54.6 PPG — but the Seminoles have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after 15 games into the season against teams who do not allow more than 64 PPG. And while Virginia shoots 48% from the field, Florida State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a field goal percentage of at least 48%.
FINAL TAKE: The Seminoles will be looking to avenge a 65-52 loss at Virginia back on January 5th. That game took place before this Florida State team started playing their best basketball back at full strength. The Seminoles have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 opportunities to avenge a loss. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Year with the Florida State Seminoles (839) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-14-19 |
UC-Davis v. CS-Fullerton UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
71-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cal-Davis Aggies (763) and the Cal-State Fullerton Titans (764). THE SITUATION: Cal-Davis (11-19) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 71-70 upset loss at home to UC-Riverside last Saturday as a 9-point favorite. CS-Fullerton (14-16) has lost three of their last four games with their 71-59 upset loss at home to Hawai’i as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Big West tournament is played on a neutral court at the Honda Center in Anaheim.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 33 of their last 50 games Under the Total after a loss on their home court. Furthermore, the Under is a decisive 38-16-1 in Cal-Davis’ last 55 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 42-15-1 in their last 58 games after a point spread loss. The Aggies got upset in that game despite them making 52.7% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. Cal-Davis ranks only 8th in the Big West in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They also score only 63.7 PPG when playing away from home while making just 41.9% of their shots. But the Aggies should play better on the defensive end of the court after allowing UC-Riverside to nail 52.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them in their last six games. Cal-Davis ranks 3rd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130s. Additionally, the Aggies have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. CS-Fullerton has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Titans have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival — and this includes them playing five of their last six games Under the Total when that loss to a conference rival took place on their home court. Furthermore, Fullerton has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road after losing three of their last four games. The Titans play very good defense as they rank 2nd in the Big West in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have held their opponents to just a 42.6% field goal percentage when playing on the road. But Fullerton only ranks 7th in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making just 42.8% of their shots over their last five games. The Titans have played 7 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have also played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: CS-Fullerton will be looking to avenge a 66-59 loss to Cal-Davis back on March 2nd. The Titans have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they failed to score at least 60 points. 25* CBB Big West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cal-Davis Aggies (763) and the Cal-State Fullerton Titans (764). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-14-19 |
Creighton v. Xavier UNDER 141.5 |
Top |
61-63 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Bluejays (683) and the Xavier Musketeers (684). THE SITUATION: Creighton (18-13) has won five straight games after their 91-78 win over DePaul as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Xavier (17-14) has won six of their last seven games with their 81-68 victory over St. John’s as a 2-point favorite. These two teams meet in the Quarterfinals of the Big East taking place at Madison Square Garden which makes this a neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Musketeers winning streak over the last month or so has been due to significantly improved play on the defensive end of the court. Xavier has held their last five opponents to just a 42% field goal percentage. The Musketeers have played 7 of the last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Xavier has also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Musketeers made 51.9% of their shots against the Red Storm which was the best shooting mark in their last five games. But Xavier makes only 44.9% of their shots away from home. The Bluejays allow their opponents to make 45.8% of their shots — but the Musketeers have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45% or higher. Xavier has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range. Additionally, the Musketeers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. Creighton has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory on their home court. And while the Bluejays have covered the point spread in five straight games with the last two contests being in games where they were favored, Creighton has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering their last two games as a favorite. Furthermore, the Bluejays have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Creighton is very dependent on making 3-point shots — they are 2nd in the Big East with 48.7% of their field goal attempts being from behind the arc. But while the Bluejays are making 39.6% of their 3-point shots, that clip drops to a 35.8% mark when playing away from home. Creighton has played 21 of their last 31 games on the road Under the Total against conference opponents. The Bluejays have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite of no more than 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: Creighton will also have revenge on their minds after seeing Xavier split their two regular-season games with a 64-61 upset win as a 1-point underdog back on February 13th. The Bluejays have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss by no more than 3 points. 25* CBB Big East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Bluejays (683) and the Xavier Musketeers (684). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-13-19 |
Florida Atlantic v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 134 |
Top |
56-57 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Atlantic Owls (659) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (660). THE SITUATION: FAU (17-14) has lost their last two games with their 76-61 loss at Marshall as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday. Louisiana Tech (19-12) snapped their two-game losing streak last Wednesday with their 72-69 upset win at Florida Atlantic as a 2-point favorite. The Conference USA tournament takes place in Frisco, Texas which makes this a true neutral home court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Owls have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, FAU experienced a massive scoring drought in the final ten minutes in the first half of their game with the Thunder Herd as they managed only 4 points — and they went into halftime with just 28 points scored overall to neutralize their fast start. The Owls have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road after failing to score more than 30 points in the first half of their last game. Scoring is a problem for this team as they rank 11th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in Conference USA — and they are making only 40.4% of their shots over their last five games. This team only makes 40.5% of their shots when playing away from home. FAU is playing very good defense as of late as they have held their last five opponents to just a 37.6% shooting. The Owls rank 2nd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. FAU has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and the Under is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games when playing on a neutral court. Louisiana Tech has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Louisiana Tech made 47.9% of their shots against the stout Owls’ defense which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But this Bulldogs team is just 9th in Conference USA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making only 41.9% of their shots on the road. But this Louisiana Tech team also plays strong defense as they rank 3rd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are holding their conference foes to a 41.7% field goal percentage. Moving forward, the Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: FAU won the first meeting between these two teams by a 69-61 score back on January 31st — and the Owls have played 10 of the last 16 games Under the Total when avenging a close by 3 points or less. 25* CBB Conference USA Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Atlantic Owls (659) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (660). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-13-19 |
CS Sacramento v. Northern Arizona UNDER 142.5 |
Top |
72-60 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento State Hornets (671) and the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (672). Sacramento State (14-15) enters the Big Sky Tournament coming off an 86-68 loss at home to Montana last Saturday as a 4.5-point underdog. Northern Arizona (10-20) snapped their three-game losing streak on Saturday with their 89-78 upset win at Northern Colorado as a 13-point underdog. The Big Sky tournament is played in Century Link Arena in Boise, Idaho which makes it a true neutral court for both these teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Brian Katz will want his team to improve their efforts on defense after allowing the Grizzlies to make 59.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. The Hornets play pretty good defense away from home as they hold those opponents to just a 44.9% field goal percentage. Sacramento State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while that game with Montana finished above the 137 point Total, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The bigger challenge for this team will be scoring baskets as they rank ninth in the Big Sky in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are making only 41.3% of their shots over their last five games — and they average just 65.3 PPG along with a 41.4% field goal percentage when playing away from home. Furthermore, the Hornets have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Northern Arizona made only 43.7% of their shots on Saturday and still pulled off the upset victory as a double-digit underdog — and yet that was still the best shooting effort for this team in their last three games. The Lumberjacks are making only 41.8% of their shots from the field in their last five games. But this team is playing solid on the defensive end of the court as they have held their last five opponents to only a 43.5% field goal percentage. Northern Arizona has played 17 of their last 23 games on the road Under the Total after a game where at least 165 combined points were scored. Now this team stays away from home for the fourth straight game where they are making just 43.7% of their shots. The Lumberjacks are just seventh in the Big Sky conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Furthermore, Northern Arizona has played 23 of their last 30 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have also played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. The Lumberjacks have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Sacramento State will be motivated by revenge from a 78-66 upset loss to Northern Arizona as a 7-point home favorite back on February 16th — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when looking to avenge an upset loss to their opponent as a home favorite in their last encounter. These two teams have played their 6 straight meetings Under the Total. Lastly, the cherry on top for this situation is that it will be played at 9:30 AM local time. While these early tip-off situations should never be automatic plays since the tendency for teams to be a bit groggy at the unconventional early hour, this still represents only another piece of evidence. In these circumstances, it certainly helps in making a strong Under play even better. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento State Hornets (671) and the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-12-19 |
St. Mary's v. Gonzaga UNDER 140 |
Top |
60-47 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Saint Mary’s Gaels (615) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (616). THE SITUATION: Saint Mary’s (21-11) has won six of their last seven games to reach the West Coast Conference tournament championship game with their 69-62 loss to San Diego last night as a 4.5-point favorite. Gonzaga (30-2) comes off a 100-74 win win over Pepperdine last night as a 24-point favorite. This tournament is being played at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas which makes it a true neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs made 59.7% of their shots last night which was the sixth straight games where they made at least 52.8% of their shots. Gonzaga had 26 team assists against the Wave last night as they assisted on a whopping 70.3% of their made field goals — but they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where they had at least 24 team assists. The Bulldogs have also played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after playing at least four straight games where they made at least 50% of their shots. Gonzaga enjoyed a 47-26 halftime lead last night — and they have played 24 of their last 34 games Under the Total after leading by at least 15 points at halftime of their last game. The Bulldogs have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win by at least 20 points — and they have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Gonzaga has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. This Bulldogs team has the top Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the nation — but they are also an underrated defensive team. They were lax at times in the first two months of the season in their effort — and they were exposed in back-to-back losses to Tennessee and North Carolina. In West Coast Conference play, the Zags limited their opponents to score at just a 0.863 Points-Per-Possession clip. Gonzaga also ranks 7th run the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of just of 44.1% — and that is particularly important when facing this Gaels’ team that relies on their shooting. The Bulldogs have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and this includes them played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total again teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Head coach Mark Few should have his team focused on playing better on the defensive end of the court after they allowed Pepperdine to make 44.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed in their last nine games. Saint Mary’s made 53.1% of their shots last night in their victory over the Toreros which was the highest shooting mark they have enjoyed in their last nine contests. The Under is then 35-14-2 in the Gaels’ last 51 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 54-24-1 in their last 79 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Saint Mary’s has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. This Gaels’ team has the second best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the West Coast Conference. Moving forward, Saint Mary’s has played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Gonzaga swept the first two meetings between these two teams in the regular season with Saint Mary’s scoring at just a 0.67 PPP and 0.87 PPP rate. The Gaels’ defense improved in the second game after allowing the Zags to torch them for a 1.45 PPP scoring rate. Saint Mary’s improved to see the Bulldogs score at a 1.10 PPP mark which, while still efficient, was below their season average. The Gaels have played 7 straight games Under the Total when playing with at least double revenge. Lastly, these two teams have played 20 of their last 26 meetings Under the Total. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Saint Mary’s Gaels (615) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (616). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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