Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-14-18 | Washington v. Boise State UNDER 148.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (625) and the Boise State Broncos (626). Washington (20-12) enters the NIT having lost two straight games after losing to Oregon State in the Pac-12 Tournament by a 69-66 score last Wednesday as a 2.5-point underdog. The Huskies made only 38.3% of their shots in that game but did hold the Beavers to a 39.3% shooting percentage. Washington has then played 20 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival. The Huskies have also played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Washington was the lower seed in this game — but a conflict with the Boise State basketball arena tonight means that the Huskies will be hosting this game. The Huskies have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total. Washington has also played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And while this team has played their last two games Under the Total, they have then played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games Under the Total. |
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03-14-18 | Colgate v. San Francisco UNDER 140.5 | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colgate Raiders (633) and the San Francisco Dons (634). San Francisco (18-15) has lost two of their last three games after their 88-60 loss to Gonzaga as a 13-point underdog back on March 5th. The Dons played their worst defensive game of the season by watching the Bulldogs make 53.3% of their shots in that game. Expect a strong defensive effort from San Francisco tonight as they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. The Dons have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. San Francisco hosts this game where they hold their visitors to just a 42.6% shooting percentage — but they only make 42.8% of their shots as well. The Dons have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have also seen the Under go 11-4-1 in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, the game finished Under the Total 7 times. |
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03-14-18 | Arizona State v. Syracuse +2 | Top | 56-60 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Syracuse Orange (612) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (611). Arizona State (20-11) opened as a 1-point favorite in this game and now find themselves a 2-point favorite in most locations. The deeper analytics suggest that point spread is right in line for this matchup — but those metrics are valuing their earlier season success that simply might have been predicated on outlier performances. After twelve games into the season which included their wins over Kansas and Xavier, the Sun Devils were making almost 60% of their shots inside the arc while nailing 50% of their 3-point shots. Their 59.2% effective field goal percentage was simply unsustainable — only last year’s UCLA team had an eFG at that mark over the last ten seasons of college basketball. So, the Regression Gods were due to make a visit for this team. Furthermore, head coach Bob Hurley’s small-ball formula simply got exposed in Pac-12 Conference play. They only shot better than 50% from the field twice against conference opponents. Their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency that ranks 17th in the nation for the season is contrasted with a subpar Adjusted Offensive Efficiency that was merely 7th in the Pac-12 (with that number ranking 121st in the nation if extended to the entire season). They made only 33.7% of their shots from behind the arc in Pac-12 play while shooting under 50% of their shots inside the arc. So I take their full-season metrics with a big grain of salt. They limp into the Big Dance having lost five of six with their 97-85 upset loss to Colorado last Wednesday — and they have only covered the point spread once in their last six contests. I don’t think the blank slate of the NCAA Tournament helps this team. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Their declining effectiveness in shooting the basketball is not a good compliment to mediocre defensive play — they were 10th in the Pac-12 by allowing opponents to make 52.7% of their shots inside the arc. These factors explain why Arizona State is just 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 36 games played on a neutral court, the Sun Devils have failed to cover the point spread 26 times. |
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03-13-18 | Boston College v. Western Kentucky -5 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (554) minus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (553). Western Kentucky (24-10) had their NCAA Tournament dreams ruined on Saturday in their 67-66 upset loss to Marshall as a 6-point favorite in the Conference USA Championship Game. The Hilltoppers made only 35.5% of their shots in that game which was their worst offensive effort for the entire season. That was a surprising performance for a team that led Conference USA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Look for Western Kentucky to bounce-back against this Eagles team that was 14th of the 15 teams in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss. Western Kentucky has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. Getting to host this game will help this Hilltoppers team as they are 13-3 on their home court with an average winning margin of +13.3 PPG. Western Kentucky makes 50% of their shots on their home court — and that shooting prowess has helped them cover the point spread in 8 of their last 14 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. This is a good team led by a Virginia transfer in Darius Thompson who came over as a graduate transfer this season. The Hilltoppers defeated Purdue on a neutral court back in November. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against non-conference opponents. And in their last 6 games in Tournament play, the Hilltoppers have covered the point spread 5 times. |
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03-13-18 | Long Island v. Radford UNDER 139 | Top | 61-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
At 6:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Long Island Blackbirds (543) and the Radford Highlanders (544). Redford (22-12) earned an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament with their 55-52 win over Liberty last Sunday to win the Big South Conference Tournament. The Highlanders got it done by playing outstanding defense. They have held their last five opponents to just a 39.2% shooting percentage which is a bit lower than their 42.8% opponent’s field goal percentage for the season. Radford has then played 4 straight boarded games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 boarded games Under the Total after a win over a conference rival. Additionally, the Highlanders have played 6 of their last 7 boarded games Under the Total after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. Radford’s win over Liberty occurred despite the Flames making 43.9% of their shots which was the best shooting percentage of their last seven opponents. The Highlanders shot 36.2% from the field which sounds low — but it was actually their best field goal percentage over their last three games. Scoring is an issue for this Radford team that makes only 41.2% of their shots away from home. They are making only 39.6% of their shots over their last five games. The Highlanders scored only 61 points in their previous game — and they have then played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 65 points in two straight games. They only had 7 assists in their win over Liberty — and they have played 5 straight boarded games Under the Total after failing to generate at least 9 team assists in their last game. Long Island loves to shoot 3s as they average 23 shots from behind the 3-point line — but head coach Mike Jones coached teams have played 9 of their last 11 boarded games Under the Total against opponents who attempt at least 21 shots from behind the arc per game. Redford was 2nd in the Big South in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they led the conference by holding their opponents to just a 47.1% shooting percentage inside the arc. |
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03-11-18 | Houston v. Cincinnati -4 | Top | 55-56 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 57 m | Show |
At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (828) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (827). Cincinnati (29-4) has won six games in a row with their 70-60 win over Memphis yesterday as a 17-point favorite. The Bearcats have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning at least two straight games against conference rivals. The Bearcats get it done with defense as they are 2nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Cincinnati has not allowed more than 61 points in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 65 points in each of their last four games. This is expected to be another low-scoring game with the total in the 128 point range. The Bearcats have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set no higher than 130. Cincinnati will also be looking to avenge a 67-62 upset loss to the Cougars back on February 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with revenge. |
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03-10-18 | USC +4 v. Arizona | Top | 61-75 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (543) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (544). USC (23-10) has won six of their last seven games with their 74-54 win over Oregon yesterday as a 3-point favorite over the Ducks. Look for the Trojans to build off that momentum tonight and keep this game very close (if they do not pull the outright upset). They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four contests. Additionally, USC typically plays well on neutral courts as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Additionally, the Trojans have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. USC will be additionally motivated with revenge on their minds after losing to the Wildcats by an 81-67 score in Tuscon. The Trojans have covered then point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss on the road. |
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03-10-18 | West Virginia v. Kansas +1.5 | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 2 h 37 m | Show |
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (532) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (531). West Virginia (24-9) opened as a small underdog for this Big 12 Tournament Championship Game but betting action has moved the Mountaineers to a small favorite in this game. Perhaps bettors expect West Virginia to dominate down low against this Jayhawks team missing 7’0 Udoka Azubuike with a knee injury. More on that below. But this Mountaineers team has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 Tournament Championship Games. They enter this year’s Finals coming off their 66-63 win over Texas Tech as a 2-point favorite yesterday. West Virginia has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Mountaineers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a close win by 3 points or less against a conference rival. And while West Virginia has won five of their last six games (and six of their last eight games), they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Mountaineers will be motivated by the fact that they lost their two previous meetings with the Jayhawks this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last opportunities to avenge a loss to their opponent. The fact is that West Virginia does not match up very well with this Kansas team. “Press Virginia” is 2nd in the nation in forcing turnovers — but the Jayhawks are 2nd in the Big 12 by turning the ball over in just 16.7% of their possessions. This year’s Kansas team is 20th in the nation by making 39.8% of their 3-point attempts — and they led the Big 12 with 42.7% of their field goal attempts being from behind the arc. The Mountaineers are 8th in the Big 12 by allowing their opponents to make 38.0% of their 3-point attempts. It will be hard for West Virginia to keep up in the scoring department considering that they are making only 41.3% of their shots on the road. |
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03-09-18 | San Diego State v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 90-73 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (874) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (873). Nevada (27-6) has won seven of their last eight games with their 79-74 win over UNLV yesterday as a 5-point favorite. The Wolf Pack showed their resolve in that game as they went into the locker room at halftime down 8 points — and then they saw the Runnin’ Rebels make their first two baskets in the second-half. But this resilient Nevada team made 10 of their first 12 shots in the second-half — including five 3-pointers — to take re-establish their momentum to win the game. The Wolf Pack shot just 44.3% from the field in that game which was their worst offensive effort in their last three games. This is a dynamic offensive team that ranks 9th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they also rank 10th in the nation by making 40.3% of their 3-point shots. They will be very motivated tonight as they look to avenge a 79-74 loss to the Aztecs at San Diego State just last Saturday. Nevada has been very reliable in revenge situations as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 opportunities to avenge a loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. Nevada plays well in these tournament situations — they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with one day or less of rest and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em. This team certainly will feel comfortable shooting in the Thomas & Mack Center after their offensive display in the second-half yesterday. Furthermore, the Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after fifteen games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. |
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03-09-18 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee UNDER 133 | Top | 59-62 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (849) and the Tennessee Volunteers (850). Mississippi State (22-10) reached the Quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament yesterday with their 80-77 win over LSU as a 3-point favorite. The Bulldogs shot lights out in that game by making 58.3% of their shots which was not only their best field goal percentage over their last six games but also their third best offensive effort of the season. But Mississippi State has then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after shooting at least 55% from the field in their last game. The Bulldogs have also played 30 of their last 46 road games Under the Total when playing with one day or rest between games. Additionally, Mississippi State has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when an underdog or a pick ‘em. And while the Volunteers are outscoring their opponents by +8.1 PPG this season, the Bulldogs have played 5 straight games Under the Total against opponents that outscore their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG. |
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03-09-18 | Providence v. Xavier -8 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -104 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Xavier Musketeers (858) minus the points versus the Providence Friars (857). Providence (20-12) has won three of their last four games after their 72-68 upset win over Creighton yesterday in a game that went to overtime. Look for the Friars to suffer a letdown tonight — they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by 6 points or less. That win for Providence came after a 61-57 narrow win over St. John’s in their last game in the regular season — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after eking out two straight wins by 6 points or less. The Friars were 3.5-point underdogs against the Bluejays yesterday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Providence has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when winning two of their last three games. And in their last 17 games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range, the Friars have failed to cover the point spread 11 times. |
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03-09-18 | VCU v. Rhode Island -9 | Top | 67-76 | Push | 0 | 1 h 17 m | Show |
At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Rhode Island Rams (830) minus the points versus the VCU Rams (829). Rhode Island (23-6) enters the Atlantic-10 Tournament coming off two straight losses after their 63-61 loss at Davidson in a pick ‘em contest last Friday. That loss came on the heels of an embarrassing 30-point loss at home for Senior Night against St. Joseph’s. Get this Rams team remains the regular season champions of the conference with their 15-3 record. They should get back to their winning ways in A-10 play this afternoon while benefiting from the rest as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing just their second game in eight days. This team is built to play well in tournament situations as they some of the extra things to create more scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. Rhode Island is 2nd in the conference by rebounding 31.4% of their missed shots. These Rams also led the A-10 by forcing turnovers in 22.9% of their opponent’s possessions — and this is an area of vulnerability for VCU as they were 12th in the conference by turning the ball over in 19.5% of their possessions. These characteristics have helped Rhode Island cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick em. The Rams limited their turnovers against the Wildcats last week as they only committed 7 turnovers — and they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after not turning the ball over more than 8 times in their last contest. Furthermore, Rhode Island has allowed their last two opponents to pull down only 7 and 9 offensive rebounds — and they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after not allowing more than 9 offensive rebounds in each of their last two games. This team just needs to shoot the ball better — they made only 40.3% of their shots against Davidson after shooting an awful 28.1% from the field in that loss to St. Joe’s in their final home game of the season. Rhode Island makes a healthy 46% of their shots when playing on the road so don’t be surprised if they break out with a strong shooting effort this afternoon. |
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03-08-18 | San Diego State v. Fresno State UNDER 138 | Top | 64-52 | Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show |
At 5:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego State Aztecs (719) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (720). San Diego State (19-10) has won six straight games with their 79-74 win over Nevada last Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite. The Aztecs made 49.2% of their shots in that game which was their best shooting effort in their last four games. They also allowed the Wolf Pack to make 49.2% of their shots which was their worst defensive performance in their last seven contests. Both of those results should see some regression this afternoon which points to an Under. As it is, the Under is 5-0-1 in San Diego State’s last 6 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Aztecs have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning three straight games against conference rivals. Now this team goes back on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after playing their last two games on their home court. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Under is 4-1-1 for San Diego State. |
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03-07-18 | Florida Atlantic +10 v. UAB | Top | 72-83 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Florida Atlantic Owls (619) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (620). UAB (19-12) probably played their best game of the season last Saturday when they upset Western Kentucky by a 101-73 score as a 1-point underdog. The Blazers held the Hilltoppers to just a 42.9% shooting percentage which was impressive — but they also made a sizzling 61.7% of their shots from the field which was their best shooting performance of the season. Now as a double-digit favorite against a team they destroyed by a 75-44 score back on January 4th, it would not be the first time that a team in this situation did not bring their proverbial “A-Game.” As it is, UAB has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 18 games after a game where they made at least 57% of their shots while holding their opponents to no better than a 43% shooting mark. The Blazers have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least 20 points. Additionally, UAB has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games hitting the century mark in points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Blazers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when playing on a neutral court. |
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03-07-18 | Arkansas State v. Louisiana-Monroe -4 | Top | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the UL-Monroe Warhawks (590) minus the points versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (589). UL-Monroe (15-14) has lost two of their last three games entering the Sun Belt Conference Tournament after an upset lose to this Red Wolves team by an 83-79 score despite being a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Look for the Warhawks to exact their revenge tonight with this game being playing in the New Orleans Superdome in the Big Easy. UL-Monroe has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after an upset loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. Additionally, the Warhawks have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a point spread loss. And while this team has failed to cover the point spread in two straight games, UL-Monroe has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after suffering two straight point spread losses. These Warhawks have raised their level of play in the second-half of the season by winning eight of their last eleven games. The insertion of freshman guard Michael Ertel jumpstarted this group and completed two dynamic wing players in Travis Munnings and Sam McDaniel. This team can score with of their peers in the Sun Belt Conference — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a game where both teams scored at least 75 points. They also have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. This will be a very motivated Warhawks team as they lost both their games with the Red Wolves this season. But UL-Monroe has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with double revenge. |
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03-06-18 | CS Sacramento v. Portland State -7.5 | Top | 67-71 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
At 11:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Portland State Vikings (536) minus the points versus the Sacramento State Hornets (535). Portland State (19-12) has won four of their last five games with their 97-90 win over North Dakota on Saturday as an 8.5-point favorite. Look for the Vikings to build off the momentum of that victory as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win on their home court — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a home victory where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. This team finished 9-9 in the Big Sky Conference — and they will be at full attention against this Hornets team who earned two of their four conference wins this season against them. The Vikings to shoot the basketball in both these previous games this season — they made only 41.7% in the first meeting between these two teams back on December 30th before making just 34.4% of their shots in the rematch at home where they lost by a 71-61 score. Sacramento State has allowed their last five opponents to make 47.8% of their shots — so Portland State has a good chance to shoot better tonight. The Hornets made 48.9% of their shots in that February meeting and have made a sizzling 55% of their (100) shots from the field against the Vikings this season. But the Regression Gods will likely make an appearance tonight as Sacramento State is shooting only 40.9% on the road this year. Portland State should dominate the offensive glass once again tonight after pulling down 38.3% and 34.1% of their missed shots in the first two meetings between these two teams. The Vikings led the Big Sky by rebounding 35.8% of their missed shots — and the Hornets are last in the conference by allowing their opponents to rebound 28.8% of their missed shots. Moving forward, Portland State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. The Vikings have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 150 to 159.5 point range. |
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03-06-18 | BYU +9.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 54-74 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (527) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (528). Gonzaga (29-4) was absolutely dominant last night as they made 16 of their first 20 shots en route to a scorching 64.3% shooting percentage in the first-half which overwhelmed San Francisco in their eventual 88-60 victory. The Bulldogs cooled off with their shooting but still ended up making 53.3% of their shots. They held the Dons to a 36.7% opponent’s field goal percentage in what was their best defensive effort in their last five games. But I am expecting a letdown in this game for the National Championship runner-ups in a game that they do not need in qualifying for the Big Dance. Gonzaga is 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Bulldogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games are a win by at least 20 points. And while this Gonzaga team actually shot their lowest field goal percentage last night as they have in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after making at least 47% of their shots in three straight games. This Bulldogs team is usually a bit overvalued relative to their point spread expectations. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 11 games on a neutral court as a favorite in the 9.5 to 12 point range, Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread 7 times. |
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03-05-18 | NC-Wilmington v. Northeastern -7 | Top | 52-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Northeastern Huskies (730) minus the points versus the UNC-Wilmington Seahawks (729). Northeastern (22-9) is the hottest team in the Colonial Athletic Association as they have won eight straight games with their 74-50 blowout win over Delaware yesterday. The Huskies made 51.9% of their shots in a ho-hum effort for them when considering that they have shot better than that in five of their last eight contests. But perhaps the most encouraging aspect regarding that win over the Blue Hens was that they held them to just a 36% shooting percentage. Look for Northeastern to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a win by at least 20 points. Additionally, Northeastern has covered the point spread in 5 of the last 7 games after recording at least five straight wins — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after registering at least six straight victories. And in their last 4 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em, the Huskies have covered then point spread 3 times. |
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03-05-18 | Cleveland State v. Oakland UNDER 146 | Top | 44-43 | Win | 100 | 1 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland State Vikings (723) and the Oakland Grizzlies (724). Cleveland State (11-22) pulled off their third straight upset victory on Saturday with their 89-80 shocking 89-80 win over tournament favorite Northern Kentucky by an 89-80 score despite being a 14-point underdog. The Vikings have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset win over a conference rival. Cleveland State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Vikings have played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. Additionally, Cleveland State has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored at least 80 points — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games after a game that finished Over the Total as their game with Norse finished well above that 140 point total. Despite that high scoring game, the Vikings are playing better on defense which explains why they are pulling off these upsets. Cleveland State has held their last five opponents to just a 40.0% shooting percentage. Moving forward, the Vikings have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. |
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03-03-18 | Penn State v. Purdue -7 | Top | 70-78 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
At 4:50 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (638) minus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (637). Purdue (27-5) has bounced-back from a three-game losing streak last month by winning four straight games after they disposed of Rutgers yesterday by an 82-75 score. The Boilermakers may be a little under appreciated given that three-game slide — but it was a product of a grueling Big Ten schedule. Purdue lost a one possession game at home to Ohio State before traveling to Michigan State where they lost again by a single possession. They were then flat on the road in their third game in eight days against an improving young Wisconsin team (that lost by just 3 points to the Spartans yesterday). This remains an outstanding team that does many things quite well. Despite that losing streak, the Boilermakers still enjoyed the top Efficiency Margin in the Big Ten even with a more difficult schedule than Michigan State. They are 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while ranking 25th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their offense can is nearly unstoppable with 7’2 center Isaac Hays a beast down low while being surrounded by four players that can all nail 3-point shots. The Boilermakers are 2nd in the nation by making 42.1% of their 3-point shots. In their victory over the Scarlet Knights yesterday, Purdue made 13 of their 30 shots from behind the arc for a 43.3% mark. The Boilermakers have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after making at least 13 shots from 3-point land in their last game. This offensive juggernaut has shot at least 51.4% from the field in each of their last three games. Not only has Purdue covered then point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games but they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after making at least 50% of their shots in three straight games. Moving forward, the Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. And in their last 11 games on a neutral court as a favorite laying 6.5 to 12 points, Purdue has covered the point spread 9 times. With a rising superstar guard in sophomore Carsen Edwards surrounded by four seniors, this tight-knit team has the makeup to win high-stakes contests. |
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03-02-18 | Indiana State v. Illinois State -1 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Illinois State Redbirds (862) minus the point(s) versus the Indiana State Sycamores (861). Illinois State (16-14) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 68-61 loss at Loyola-Illinois as a 12-point underdog. The Redbirds should bounce-back with a strong effort tonight as they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up loss. Furthermore, Illinois State has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after winning two of their last three games. This team suffered some key injuries this season which contributed to their disappointing 10-8 record in Missouri Valley Conference play — but they have recently seen the return of two injured starters in Phily Fayne and Keyshawn Evans. On paper, this team is as talented as the Loyola-Ill team that has received much more attention this season. They have a Player of the Year candidate in Milik Yarbrough. This team is steady on both ends of the court with offensive and defensive effective field goal percentages that each rank 3rd nest in the conference. This Illinois State team is also 2nd in the Missouri Valley by making 51.2% of their shots inside the arc. The Redbirds are also tops in the conference by holding their opponents to just a 31.3% shooting mark from 3-point land. They will be motivated with revenge tonight after losing by an ugly 84-54 score to these Sycamores back on January 20th. But the Redbirds have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 opportunities to avenge a loss to their opponents. Furthermore, Illinois State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing on a neutral court. |
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03-02-18 | Ohio v. Miami-OH -3.5 | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Redhawks (838) minus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (837). Miami (OH) (15-15) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 90-83 loss at Kent State as a 3-point underdog. The Redhawks should bounce-back with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread setback. Additionally, while that game fished well above the 138.5 point total for that contest, Miami has then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Now this team returns home where they are 8-4 with an average winning margin of +12.6 PPG. This the 3rd best team in the Mid-American Conference when it comes to Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they hold their visitors to just a 41.9% shooting percentage. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. They will be motivated by revenge tonight after losing to the Bobcats on the road by a 92-87 score back on February 17th. Not only has this Miami covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when playing with same-season revenge but they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when looking to avenge a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. |
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03-02-18 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State UNDER 132 | Top | 60-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wisconsin Badgers (847) and the Michigan State Spartans (848). Wisconsin (14-17) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament yesterday afternoon with their 59-54 upset win over Maryland as a 2.5-point underdog. The Badgers won that game despite making just 36% of their shots. Wisconsin has won four of their last five games in large part because they have finally started limiting their turnovers. Not offering opponents fast break transition opportunities was a foundational principle for this program under head coach Bo Ryan as they finished in Top-Five nationally in limiting turnovers in the final seven seasons of his coaching tenure. But this Badgers’ team under head coach Greg Gard was turning the ball over in 20.7% of their possessions after their first four games in Big Ten play. This young Wisconsin team has improved significantly in this department as they have not turned the ball over more than 15.9% of their possessions in each of their last eight games. Protecting the basketball has helped the Badgers slow the tempo and grind games out. They have played 4 of their last 5 games in conference play Under the Total. Wisconsin will certainly try to shorten the game and limit the number of scoring possessions for the Spartans. Michigan State is outscoring their opponents by +17.5 PPG — and the Badgers have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +4.0 PPG. Wisconsin has also played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Under is 12-3-2 in the Badgers’ last 17 games played on a neutral court. Furthermore, Wisconsin is playing with double-revenge this season after losing to Sparty twice this season — and they have played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total when facing a team that has beaten them in at least two straight games. |
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03-01-18 | Oregon State v. Washington UNDER 139.5 | Top | 77-79 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon State Beavers (553) and the Washington Huskies (554). Oregon State (14-14) snapped their three-game losing streak on Saturday with their 79-75 win over Arizona State as a 2.5-point underdog. The Beavers made 52.8% of their shots in that game which was their best offensive effort in their last four contests. Oregon State has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory over a conference rival. Additionally, the Beavers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, while that game finished Over the 149.5-point Total, they have then played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. This Oregon State is one of the best defensive teams in the Pac-12 — they rank 4th in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, opponent’s effective field goal percentage and opponent’s 3-point percentage. But this Beavers team struggles on offense as they rank 8th in all three of those offensive categories as well. Oregon State makes only 43.2% of their shots on the road — but they do hold their home hosts to just a 42.8% shooting percentage. The Under is 4-0-1 in the Beavers’ last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, the Under is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% overall. |
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02-28-18 | Eastern Illinois v. Tennessee State -3 | Top | 73-71 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Tennessee State Tigers (768) minus the points versus the Eastern Illinois Panthers (767). Tennessee State (15-14) limps into the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament on a three-game losing streak after their lost by an 84-59 score at Belmont on Saturday as an 11.5-point underdog. The Tigers made only 36.1% of their shots in that contest which was their worst offensive effort in their last eighteen games. They also allowed the Bruins to make 56.6% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort in their last twelve games. But conference tournaments offer blank slates — and this Tennessee State team has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while Tennessee State has not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 3 straight games after going at least 0-3 ATS in their last three games. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 road games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Tennessee State is equipped to play well on a neutral court as they led the OVC by forcing turnovers in 22.9% of their opponent’s possessions — and the Panthers are 8th in the conference by committing turnovers in 19.8% of their possessions. Additionally, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 120 to 129.5 point range. |
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02-28-18 | Providence v. Xavier -10.5 | Top | 74-84 | Loss | -106 | 2 h 5 m | Show |
At 6:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Xavier Musketeers (720) minus the points versus the Providence Friars (719). Providence (18-11) snapped their two-game losing streak snapped on Saturday with their 74-69 win at Georgetown as a 2-point underdog. But the Friars have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a close win by 6 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win in general. Additionally, Providence has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 6-7 for the season while making only 44% of their shots. The Friars have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, Providence has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. |
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02-27-18 | Ball State v. Central Michigan OVER 150 | Top | 51-75 | Loss | -103 | 1 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (517) and the Central Michigan Chippewas (518). Ball State (19-10) saw their five-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 87-80 upset loss to Western Michigan as a 4.5-point favorite. The Cardinals allowed the Broncos to shoot 51.7% from the field in that game which was their worst defensive effort in their last six games. They did stay competitive in that game since they made 53.6% of their shots. Now this Ball State goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. The Cardinals have also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Now they travel to Muskegon to face this Chippewas team that is outscoring their opponents by +5.3 PPG — and Ball State has played 21 of their last 29 games against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +4.0 PPG. Furthermore, Central Michigan launches 28 shots from 3-point range per game — and the Cardinals have played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total against teams that average at least 21 shots from the 3-point line per game. |
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02-26-18 | Duke v. Virginia Tech +5.5 | Top | 63-64 | Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (724) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (723). Virginia Tech (20-9) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 75-68 upset loss to Louisville as a 4-point favorite. The Hokies have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Virginia Tech stays at home where they are 13-4 with an average winning margin of +14.7 PPG. The Hokies are scoring 84.2 PPG on their home court based on strong 52.2% shooting. Virginia Tech is one of the best offensive teams in the nation. They are 8th in the nation with a 57.5% shooting percentage inside the arc. They also are 8th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 58.1% which is buoyed by their 39.4% shooting mark from the 3-point line. The Hokies also hold their visitors to just a 41.8% shooting percentage. Virginia Tech is a decisive 27-12-1 ATS in their last 40 games on their home court. The Hokies have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. This team will be looking to avenge a 74-52 loss to the Blue Devils back on February 14th. Virginia Tech has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. |
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02-25-18 | Mercer v. Wofford OVER 139 | Top | 69-68 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 36 m | Show |
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Mercer Bears (857) and the Wofford Terriers (858). Mercer (17-13) has won seven straight games after their 83-70 win at the Citadel on Friday as a 6.5-point favorite. The Bears shot 49.2% from the field in that game which was actually their worst offensive effort in their last four games. This Mercer team won by playing one of their better games of the season on defense as they held the Citadel to just a 36.7% shooting percentage which was tied for the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six contests. The Bears have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and the Over is also 10-4-1 in their last 15 games after a point spread win. Mercer has also played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning at least four straight games. Now this team stays on the road where they have played 12 of their last 16 road games Over the Total as the underdog or as a pick ‘em. The Bears have also played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, Mercer has played 4 of these games Over the Total. |
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02-24-18 | Massachusetts v. George Mason OVER 147 | Top | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Massachusetts Minutemen (613) and the George Mason Patriots (614). UMass (11-17) has lost four games in a row after their 82-78 loss to VCU on Wednesday as a 2.5-point underdog. The Minutemen allowed the Rams to make 54.2% of their shots as their play on the defensive end of the court continues to falter. UMass has allowed their last three opponents to shoot at least 50.8% from the field — and seven of their last nine opponents have made at least 50.8% of their shots. Furthermore, all eight of their last eight opponents have scored at least 82 points. The Minutemen have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. Additionally, UMass has played 7 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Now the Minutemen go back on the road where they have played 4 straight games Over the Total. And while the Patriots attempt 21 shots from the 3-point line per game, they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams that average at least 21 shots from behind the arc per game. |
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02-24-18 | Valparaiso v. Drake -4.5 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -102 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Drake Bulldogs (548) minus the points versus the Valparaiso Crusaders (547). Drake (10-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their 89-81 loss at Illinois State as a 3.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs managed to make only 36.8% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Drake has then bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss to a fellow Missouri Valley Conference rival. Now this team returns home where they are 10-2 with an average winning margin of +11.2 PPG. Drake should shoot much better this afternoon as they are making 47.2% of their shots — and they are holding their visitors to just a 42.4% field goal percentage. The Bulldogs are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games on their home court. Drake has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as a favorite or pick ‘em. Drake will be looking to avenge a 77-60 loss to the Crusaders back on January 10th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge. |
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02-23-18 | Wofford v. East Tennessee State -8.5 | Top | 75-71 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the East Tennessee State Buccaneers (854) minus the points versus the Wofford Terriers (853). East Tennessee State (23-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 84-82 loss to the Citadel despite being an 18.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Buccaneers should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 11 straight games after an upset loss as a favorite laying at least 6 points. Additionally, East Tennessee State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, this team has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Now the Buccaneers return home where they are 12-2 this season with an average winning margin of +17.0 PPG. East Tennessee State averages a robust 81.1 PPG on 50.2% shooting on their home court while holding their visitors to just a 39.7% shooting percentage. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on their home court. East Tennessee State has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. |
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02-22-18 | Tennessee State v. Tennessee Tech UNDER 135.5 | Top | 64-69 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee State Tigers (651) and the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (652). Tennessee State (15-12) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their upset 72-59 loss to Eastern Kentucky. The Tigers allowed the Colonels to make 53.3% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort in their last ten contests. They should play much better on defense tonight as they are holding their conference opponents to just 41.6% of their shots this season. Tennessee State also made just 37.5% of their shots in that game — but they may not improve much on that mark when considering that they are making only 40.7% of their shots on the road. Moving forward, the Tigers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total. Tennessee State has also played 11 of their last 16 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. They will be looking to avenge an 87-81 loss to Tennessee Tech back on January 8th — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge for a loss at home to their opponents. |
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02-22-18 | Georgia Southern v. Texas-Arlington -5 | Top | 63-83 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UT-Arlington Mavericks (596) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (595). UT-Arlington (16-12) has lost two straight games with their 100-79 loss at UL-Lafayette last Saturday as a 9.5-point underdog. This was one of this team’s worst games of the season. They made only 38.1% of their shots which was their worst field goal percentage in their last seven games — and they allowed the Ragin’ Cajuns to shoot 50% from the field which was their worst defensive performance in their last ten contests. The Mavericks should bounce-back with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a loss by at least 20 points. UT-Arlington has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a point spread defeat. Furthermore, the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a loss on the road. UT-Arlington’s previous game was an 84-71 loss on the road at UL-Monroe — but they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last two games. Now this team returns home where they are 11-2 this season with an average winning margin of +9.5 PPG. They are holding their visitors to a low 37.7% shooting percentage. The Mavericks are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games on their home court. And this team will be motivated to avenge a 74-59 loss to Georgia Southern back on January 27th — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. Led by 6’7 forward Kevin Hervey, UT-Arlington is rebounding a healthy 31.4% of their missed shots which is 4th best in Sun Belt play. This is an area of vulnerability for the Eagles as they rank 10th in the conference by allowing their opponents to pull down 32.1% of their missed shots. |
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02-21-18 | San Diego State v. Air Force +8 | Top | 67-56 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Air Force Falcons (762) plus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (761). San Diego State (15-10) enters this game coming off their 95-56 blowout win over UNLV on Saturday as a 4-point favorite. But the Aztecs have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win against a conference rival where they scored at least 80 points. San Diego State did make 11 of their 13 free throw attempts in that game for a sizzling 85.7% rate — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where they made at least 78% of their free throw attempts. Getting to the free throw line is perhaps the biggest weakness of this team as they are last in the Mountain West Conference with a free throw attempt to field goal attempt ratio of 26.9%. San Diego State has won two straight games after they defeated Wyoming by an 87-77 margin — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 4-8 with an average losing margin of -3.3 PPG. The Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. San Diego State has struggled against this Falcons team as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 encounters — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five trips to Colorado Springs. |
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02-21-18 | Georgia v. South Carolina UNDER 130.5 | Top | 57-66 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
At 6:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (705) and the South Carolina Gamecocks (706). Georgia (15-11) has won two straight games — both upset victories — with their 72-62 win over Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. The Bulldogs have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while this Georgia team has played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two straight games Over the Total. The Volunteers committed a whopping 27 personal fouls in that game on Saturday which helped produce a 38 free throw attempts for the Bulldogs (they made 27 of these shots from the charity stripe). Georgia has then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where their opponent committed at least 22 personal fouls — and they have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a game where their opponent committed at least 27 personal fouls. Now this team goes back on the road where they are making only 41.5% of their shots. The Bulldogs have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have also played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. Georgia has also seen the Under go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% overall. The Bulldogs will be looking to avenge a 64-57 loss at South Carolina back on January 13th — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. |
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02-20-18 | Indiana v. Nebraska UNDER 138.5 | Top | 57-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Hoosiers (527) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (528). Indiana (16-12) has won four games in a row with their 84-82 upset win at Iowa on Saturday as an 11-point favorite. The Hoosiers pulled that game out despite allowing the Hawkeyes to make 55.1% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort in their last five games. Improving the play on defense for this team was priority number one for first-year head coach Archie Miller who came over from a Dayton program where he had very competitive NCAA Tournament teams predicated on strong defensive play. This team has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. Indiana has still held their last five opponents to just a 39.8% shooting percentage. The Hoosiers are also a surprising 3rd in the Big Ten in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Indiana has played 19 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Hoosiers have also seen the Under go 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Indiana won that game against Iowa because they made 56.1% of their shots which was actually their worst offensive effort in their last three games. Expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance tonight. Not only have the Hoosiers played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where they shot at least 50% of their shots but they have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after shooting at least 47% from the field in three straight contests. Now this team stays on the road where they are making only 44.4% of their shots this season. Indiana has seen the Under go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games on the road — and the Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Additionally, the Hoosiers have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams wit ha winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 6 games with the Total set in the 130-139.5 point range, Indiana has played 5 of these games Under the Total. |
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02-19-18 | Oklahoma v. Kansas UNDER 165.5 | Top | 74-104 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (715) and the Kansas Jayhawks (716). Oklahoma (16-10) has lost five straight games after their upset loss at home to Texas on Saturday as a 7-point favorite. The Sooners shot just 30.8% from the field in that game. At times, such a poor shooting effort may be a harbinger of a visit from the Regression Gods. However, this Oklahoma team has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after failing to make more than 33% of their shots in their last game — and this includes four Unders in those last five situations. The team’s struggles on offense start with freshman sensation Trae Young who is in the midst of a terrible shooting slump. He has made only 10 of the 51 shots from 3-point land he has hoisted up during his team’s losing streak. Young tends to force his shot when his teammates are not making their shots — and this problem gets worse when they are playing on the road. Oklahoma is still averaging 87.5 PPG on 47.1% shooting. But the Sooners are scoring over 13 PPG less than their season average over their last five games while making just 43% of their shots over that stretch. Unfortunately for this Oklahoma team, that low shooting mark is just about what they are shooting on the road given their 43.8% shooting percentage. The Sooners have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Oklahoma has also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss to a conference rival. Additionally, the Sooners have played 3 straight Unders after getting upset by at least ten points despite being the favorite in that game. And in their last 9 games after an upset loss to a conference rival, Oklahoma has played 6 of these games Under the Total. Additionally, the Sooners have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. |
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02-17-18 | Montana +1 v. Idaho | Top | 77-79 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Montana Grizzlies (699) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Idaho Vandals (700). Montana (20-6) looks to bounce-back from a 74-65 loss at Eastern Washington on Thursday as a 4-point favorite that snapped their thirteen game winning streak. The Grizzlies have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. And while this team has failed to cover the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 road games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. This Montana team remains the class of the Big Sky Conference with their 13-1 record: they lead the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking 2nd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are making 48.6% of their shots in conference play while holding their opponents to just a 39.6% shooting percentage. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have allowed only 5 offensive rebounds in each of their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 9 offensive rebounds in two straight games. Now this team stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games which includes covering the point spread in eight of their last ten games away from home. Additionally, Montana has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a winning record. Montana matches up well against this Vandals team that averages 21 shots from behind the arc per game as they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 34 games against teams that average at least 21 shots from 3-point land per game. |
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02-16-18 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 132.5 | Top | 76-71 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the IUPUI Jaguars (817) and the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (818). Milwaukee (14-14) has won two of their last three games — as well as five of their last seven contests — after their 74-73 upset win at Wright State as a 7-point favorite. The Panthers made 59.2% of their shots which was the best offensive effort in their last 27 games going all the way back to their first game of the season. The Regression Gods are likely to make an appearance with this team tonight — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after shooting at least 55% of their shots in their last game. Additionally, the Panthers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Milwaukee’s improved play has much to do with their improved play on the defensive end of the court. They have held their last five opponents to just a 40.8% field goal percentage. |
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02-16-18 | Pennsylvania v. Columbia +2 | Top | 74-62 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Columbia Lions (812) plus the points versus the Pennsylvania Quakers (811). Columbia (6-15) has lost two straight games after their 91-88 loss at Brown last Saturday. But these Lions typically respond well to adversity as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Columbia has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 gamers after a loss to a fellow Ivy League team. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two of their last three games. Now this team returns home where they are 5-3 while outscoring their visitors but 9.5 PPG. The Lions leads the Ivy League in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring a healthy 79.9 PPG on their home court while limiting their visitors to just a 41.7% shooting percentage. Columbia is 2nd in the Ivy by making 39.2% of their 3-point shots — and that number rises to a 40.3% clip on their home court. The Lions should enjoy a significant advantage on the boards tonight as they lead the Ivy League by pulling down 30.8% of their missed shots — and the Quakers are 5th in the league by allowing their conference opponents to rebound 25.7% of their missed shots. In the first meeting between these two teams, Columbia rebounded 32.4% of their missed shots — but they shot just 39.4% from the field while making only 6 of their 25 shots from downtown (25%) in a 77-71 loss at Penn. The Lions will be playing with revenge on their minds in this one — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. |
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02-15-18 | Weber State v. Portland State OVER 160.5 | Top | 95-86 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Weber State Wildcats (607) and the Portland State Vikings (608). Weber State (17-7) has won seven straight games with their 71-66 win over Northern Colorado on Saturday as a 3-point favorite. The Wildcats made just 43.5% of their shots which was their worst offensive effort in their last five contests. This Weber State team made up for their poor shooting performance by holding the Bears to just a 34.2% shooting mark which was their best defensive performance in their last ten contests. The Wildcats have seen the Over go 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Weber State has played 6 straight road games Over the Total after a win by 6 points or less. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 16 of their last 20 games Over the Total. They also have played 20 of their last 26 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. And in their last 9 road games as an underdog of 6 points or less, the Wildcats have played 8 of these games Over the Total. Weber State has covered the point spread in six of their last seven games — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. And in the last 9 road games against teams with a winning record after 15 games into the season, the Wildcats have played all 9 games Over the Total. |
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02-12-18 | TCU v. West Virginia -7.5 | Top | 66-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (716) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (715). West Virginia (18-7) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 88-85 upset loss to Oklahoma State as a 12.5-point favorite. That loss should ensure that Bob Huggins had the full attention of his team in practice since. The Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss as a home favorite laying at least 12 points. West Virginia has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. This team stays at home where they remain 11-3 with an average winning margin of +21.2 PPG. The Mountaineers are holding their visitors to scoring just 63.2 PPG on low 38.8% shooting. West Virginia has covered the point spread in 6 of the last 8 home games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 6 points. The Mountaineers are also 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, this West Virginia team will be motivated with revenge on their minds after losing to these Horned Frogs by an 82-73 score. Huggins’ teams at West Virginia have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. |
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02-10-18 | Gonzaga v. St. Mary's UNDER 146.5 | Top | 78-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Gonzaga Bulldogs (679) and the St. Mary’s Gaels (680). St. Mary’s (24-2) continues to roll as they enter this game coming off an 83-62 win at Loyola-Marymount on Thursday as a 13-point favorite. This is an excellent offensive basketball team — but they are not likely to come close to replicating their 64% shooting mark that they enjoyed against the Lions which was their best offensive performance in their last seven games. St. Mary’s has played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after shooting at least 55% from the field. And while the Gaels have made at least 50.8% of their shots in three straight games, they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after shooting at least 50% from the field in three straight games. St. Mary’s has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Under is also a decisive 64-29-2 in the Gaels’ last 95 games after a straight-up win. Now this team returns home where they have played 7 straight games Under the Total. St. Mary’s has also played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Gaels have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 16 games in conference play, the Under is 12-3-1. |
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02-08-18 | Cal Poly v. CS-Fullerton -8.5 | Top | 59-75 | Win | 100 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cal-State Fullerton Titans (574) minus the points versus the Cal-Poly SLO Mustangs (573). Cal-State Fullerton (12-9) has lost four of their last five games after their 63-58 loss to UC-Irvine on Saturday as a pick ‘em. The Titans shot just 32.8% from the field which was their worst shooting effort in their last 20 games. That was a surprisingly poor performance for this Cal-State Fullerton team that still leads the Big West with an effective field goal percentage of 53.1% this season. The Titans have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. This team should shoot much better tonight as they are making 47.7% of their shots in conference play. Cal-State Fullerton is 6-3 at home this season with an average winning margin of +9.8 PPG. They also play very good defense as they are holding their visitors to scoring just 63.2 PPG on low 38.2% shooting. The defense did their job on Saturday as they held the Anteaters to just a 38.6% shooting percentage in their losing effort. The Titans have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on their home court. Cal-State Fullerton has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Besides leading the Big West with their effective field goal percentage combining their 2-point and 3-point shooting, this Titans team also leads the nation with a Free Throw Attempt to Field Goal Attempt ratio of 49.5% — and they are hitting a healthy 72.0% of these shots from the charity stripe this season. This is an area where Cal-State Fullerton should seize a big advantage as Cal-Poly SLO is 265th in the nation with an opponent’s FTA/FGA ratio of 37.7%. The Mustangs are also last in Big West with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 54.0%. |
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02-07-18 | George Mason v. Fordham OVER 136.5 | Top | 66-67 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the George Mason Patriots (723) and the Fordham Rams (724). George Mason (10-13) snapped their four-game losing streak on Saturday with their 79-75 upset win at Richmond as a 7-point underdog. The Patriots held the Spiders to just a 38% shooting percentage which was their best defensive effort of the season. George Mason has still allowed their last five opponents to make 46.9% of their shots even with that strong effort — so the Regression Gods are likely to make an appearance tonight. The Patriots have allowed at least 75 points in eight straight games — and they have then played 8 straight games Over thew Total after allowing at least 75 points in two straight games. Additionally, George Mason has played a decisive 42 of their last 61 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 5 straight games Over the Total. The Patriots have also played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Furthermore, George Mason has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 8 games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, the Patriots gave played 7 of these games Over the Total. |
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02-02-18 | Green Bay v. Wisc-Milwaukee -7 | Top | 58-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (832) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix (831). Milwaukee (12-13) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday in a 74-56 upset loss to Illinois-Chicago despite being a 4-point favorite. The Panthers made just 35.1% of their shots in that contest which was their worst shooting effort in their last twenty-two games. Milwaukee also allowed the Flames to make 45.6% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort in their last four contests. Look for the Panthers to bounce-back with an outstanding effort as they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 26 games after a double-digit loss at home. Milwaukee has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss to a conference opponent. And in their last 32 home games after failing to score at least 60 points, the Panthers have covered the point spread 25 times. More passing to set up better shots should reap dividends for this team tonight. They had only 9 assists against Illinois-Chicago — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to dish out more than 9 assists in their last game. This team should be very focused tonight as they have now lost five straight times to their cross-town rivals after their 99-92 upset loss to the Phoenix as a 2.5-point road favorite back on January 15th. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 34 of their last 52 games when looking to avenge an upset loss — and this includes covering the point spread in eight of their last eleven of these situations. |
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02-01-18 | College of Charleston v. Northeastern -4 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 47 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Northeastern Huskies (534) minus the points versus the College of Charleston Cougars (533). Northeastern (14-8) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 68-67 loss at Drexel despite being a 6-point favorite in that game. The Huskies made just 42.4% of their shots which was their worst offensive effort in their last ten games. Northeastern has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Now this team returns home where they are 8-1 this season with an average winning margin of +10.0 PPG. The Huskies are scoring 77.2 PPG on 49.7% shooting on their home court so they should get back to looking like the team that leads the Colonial Athletic Association with an effective field goal percentage of 59.5%. Northeastern has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And while their loss to the Dragons finished below the 147.5 point total, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a game that finished Under the Total. Additionally, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They will be motivated to avenge an 82-66 loss to the Cougars back on January 11th where they only made 44.4% of their shots. More on why that game was an aberration below — as it is, Northeastern has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponent. |
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01-31-18 | Wyoming v. Colorado State OVER 149 | Top | 91-86 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (769) and the Colorado State Rams (770). Wyoming (14-7) has won three games in a row with their 90-86 win at San Jose State as an 11-point favorite on Saturday. The Cowboys have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played a decisive 44 of the last 58 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Wyoming has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. That win over the Spartans finished well over the 141.5 point total for that game — and they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished above the number. In fact, the Cowboys have played four straight Overs — and they have then played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Wyoming will be looking to avenge a 78-73 upset loss to the Rams back on January 13th — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss to their opponent. The Cowboys have also played 7 straight Overs when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. Furthermore, Wyoming has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against fellow Mountain Western Conference opponents. |
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01-31-18 | La Salle v. Davidson -8.5 | Top | 65-84 | Win | 100 | 2 h 10 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Davidson Wildcats (734) minus the points versus the LaSalle Explorers (733). Davidson (10-9) saw their five-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 66-63 upset loss to Richmond despite being an 11-point favorite. The Wildcats allowed the Spiders to make 49.4% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort in their last last eleven contests. Davidson has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after upset loss to a conference rival after being a favorite of at least 6 points. The Wildcats have also covered the point spread in 46 of their last 72 games after a loss to a conference rival. Davidson made 10 of their 12 free throw attempt in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after taking at least 12 free throws in their last game. The Wildcats also pulled down only 8 offensive rebounds in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not rebounding at least 9 offensive boards in their last game. Now this team returns home where they are 6-1 this season with an average winning margin of +19.3 PPG. They are scoring 80.6 PPG on a 49.4% shooting percentage while holding their visitors to just a 41.1% shooting mark. Additionally, Davidson is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against fellow Atlantic 10 opponents. |
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01-30-18 | Akron v. Miami-OH -3.5 | Top | 64-79 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Redhawks (532) minus the points versus the Akron Zips (531). Miami (OH) (11-10) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 58-48 upset loss to Eastern Michigan as a 1.5-point favorite. The Redhawks made only 30.4% of their shots which was their worst shooting effort of the season. Look for this Miami (OH) team to bounce-back as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Redhawks have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to score more than 55 points in their last game. They should shoot better tonight considering that the are making 47.5% of their shots on their home court. They are also making a sizzling 41% of their shots from behind the arc at home — and they are facing a Zips team that allows their home hosts to make 41.2% of their 3-point shots. Miami (OH) is 6-3 on their home court but they are outscoring their opponents by +15.5 PPG. The Redhawks thrive on the defensive end of the court as they rank 2nd in the Mid-American Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are holding their visitors to scoring just 64.2 PPG while shooting a low 40.6% from the field. Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. |
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01-29-18 | Kansas v. Kansas State +2 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (720) plus the point(s) versus the Kansas Jayhawks (719). Kansas State (16-5) has won four straight games with their 56-51 win over Georgia on Saturday as a 6.5-point favorite. The Wildcats won that game despite shooting just 38.3% from the field which was their worst offensive effort in their last seven contests. Kansas State made up for some of those missed shots was their free throw shooting as they made 17 of their 19 shots for a sizzling 89.5% mark. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after making at least 88% of their free throws in their last game. Kansas State has also covered the point spread in 3 straight games after a win by 6 points or less. And while the Wildcats had covered the point spread in five straight games before not meeting point spread expectations against the Bulldogs, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Kansas State has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games against Big 12 opponents. They stay at home where they are 11-1 with an average winning margin of +15.9 PPG. The Wildcats make 48.4% of their shots on their home court while limiting their opponents to just 61.5 PPG on low 38.8% shooting. Kansas State is 19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Wildcats have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, Kansas State has covered the point spread 5 times. The Wildcats are looking to avenge a 73-72 loss to the Jayhawks back on January 23rd. Kansas made 10 of their 23 shots from behind the arc (43.5%) that helped them squeeze by their in-state rivals. They are highly unlikely to repeat that mark again tonight as Kansas State limits their visitors to just a 28.2% shooting percentage from the 3-point line. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games when playing with revenge. |
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01-28-18 | Connecticut v. Temple -6 | Top | 57-85 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (846) minus the points versus Connecticut Huskies (845). Temple (10-10) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their ugly 75-42 loss at Cincinnati. That was worst offensive performance of the season for the Owls as they made just 28.6% of their shots against the tough Bearcats defense. Expect a much better effort from this Temple team tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Owls have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than 50 points in their last game. Temple trailed by a 35-19 score at halftime of that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games at home after trailing by at least 15 points at halftime of their last game. The Owls have not scored more than 58 points in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score at least 60 points in three straight games. Temple should shoot the ball better this game after bottoming out at Cincinnati. They made only 3 of their 23 shots from behind the arc (13%) — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to make at least 20% of their 3-point attempts in their last game. The Owls also only made 7 of their 18 free throw attempts for a 43.8% mark in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not making at least 45% of their free throw attempts in their last game. Fran Dunphy’s team had been showing steady improvement as of late as they have held their last five opponents to just a 40.7% shooting percentage from the field. And in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, Temple has covered the point spread 5 times. |
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01-28-18 | Michigan State v. Maryland +6.5 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 1 h 16 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Maryland Terrapins (820) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (819). Maryland (15-7) has lost three of their last four games this season after their 71-68 loss at Indiana as a 2-point underdog on Monday. But the Terrapins have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after loss to a conference rival on the road. Maryland has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. And while the Terrapins have played three straight games Under the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after playing at least two straight Unders. This Maryland team returns home to College Park where they are 12-1 this season with an average winning margin of +18.4 PPG. They are scoring 79.6 PPG at home on a strong 49.6% shooting percentage while holding their visitors to just 61.2 PPG on low 37% shooting. The Terrapins have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on their home court. This team will also be very motivated to redeem themselves from an ugly 91-61 loss at Michigan State back on January 4th. The Spartans could not miss from the field in that game as they made 16 of their 28 shots from behind the arc (57.1%) to fuel a 57.1 field goal percentage overall while holding Maryland to just a 37.7% shooting percentage. The Terrapins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when looking to avenge a double-digit loss to their opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponents. Additionally, Maryland has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games as the underdog. |
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01-27-18 | Kentucky v. West Virginia -10 | Top | 83-76 | Loss | -108 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (586) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (585). Kentucky (15-5) snapped their two-game losing streak on Tuesday with their 78-65 win over Mississippi State as a 7.5-point favorite. We had the Wildcats in that game — but this is a terrible matchup now for John Calipari’s team. As it is, Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. The Wildcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after a point spread cover. But this young team makes too many mistakes with their young roster to not play right into the Mountaineers’ formula which is to force mistakes from their opponent. “Press Virginia” is 2nd in the nation in forcing turnovers in 26.2% of their opponent’s possessions — and Kentucky is 231st in the nation by turning the ball over in 19.7% of their possessions. West Virginia plays very physical and pounds the offensive glass as well — they are 9th in the nation by rebounding 36.5% of their missed shots. The Wildcats are 248th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 30.8% of their missed shots — and that number has actually risen to a 31.3% mark in SEC play. Kentucky is 3-4 on the road this year where they are being outscored. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 14 games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread 9 times. |
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01-25-18 | Long Beach State v. Cal Poly OVER 150 | Top | 87-71 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Long Beach State 49ers (557) and the Cal-Poly SLO Mustangs (558). Long Beach State (10-12) has won three of their last four games with their 81-73 win over Cal-State Fullerton last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. The 49ers have then played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Additionally, while that game barely finished below the 156 point total, they have then played 6 straight games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Long Beach State has also played 22 of their last 32 road games Over the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em. And in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record, the Over is 4-1-1. |
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01-24-18 | DePaul +3.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the DePaul Blue Demons (747) plus the points versus the Georgetown Hoyas (748). Georgetown (13-6) enters this game coming off their 93-89 win over St. John’s as a pick ‘em back on Saturday. The Hoyas have then failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 53 men after a straight-up win. Georgetown has also failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 36 home games after a win by 6 points or less. And while the Hoyas have only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Georgetown stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on their home court. And in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record, the Hoyas have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these games. |
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01-23-18 | Creighton v. St. John's UNDER 156 | Top | 68-63 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Blue Jays (541) and the St. John’s Red Storm (542). Creighton (15-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 85-71 loss at Providence on Saturday as a 1.5-point underdog. The Blue Jays’ defensive effort was lacking in that contest as they allowed the Friars to shoot 53.4% which was their worst defensive effort in their last thirteen games. But Creighton also shot just 39.4% from the field in that game which was their worst offensive effort in their last fifteen contests. But while the Blue Jays are making 50.4% of their shots overall, they see that number drop to just a 45.4% mark when on the road — so a complete reversal of fortune on the offensive end of the court is unlikely. Creighton has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Blue Jays have also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total in Big East play. Additionally, Creighton has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the month of January. Moving forward, the Blue Jays have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as a favorite of 6 points or less. And in their last 15 games listed in the +/- 3-point range, Creighton has played 10 of these games Under the Total. |
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01-23-18 | Kansas v. Oklahoma -1.5 | Top | 80-85 | Win | 100 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (522) minus the point(s) versus the Kansas Jayhawks (521). Oklahoma (14-4) has lost two straight games after their 83-81 loss at Oklahoma State on Saturday despite being a 2-point favorite. That was on the heels of their losing at Kansas State earlier in the week despite being 2-point favorites in that contest. That has triggered a flurry of articles trying to dissect what is wrong with freshman sensation Trae Young who has not been quite as spectacular in conference play while seeing a few ugly games in the Turnover Department. I say that what is wrong with Young and this Sooners team is nothing more than a trip back home and a visit from the Regression Gods can fix. Oklahoma shot a season-low 34.1% against the Cowboys on Sunday. But now they return home where they are a perfect 9-0 with an average winning margin of +19.8 PPG. The Sooners make 52.8% of their shots on their home court which translates into 98.9 PPG — and they hold their opponents to just a 41.9% shooting clip. Young’s supporting cast should shoot better at home which will take the pressure off him and open things up again for better offensive efforts all the way around for this team. As it is, Oklahoma has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. The Sooners have also covered the point spread in 28 of their last 42 home games after losing two of their last three games — and this includes covering the point spread in eight of their last twelve games at home after dropping two of three. This is certainly a battle-tested team that will be facing their fifth opponent ranked in the Top-Ten — and they have won three of those four encounters entering the evening. Oklahoma has also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 58 home games when favored by 6 points or less. |
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01-22-18 | Nebraska v. Ohio State UNDER 139 | Top | 59-64 | Win | 100 | 1 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (725) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (726). Nebraska (14-7) has won two straight games after their 72-52 upset win over Michigan as a 5-point underdog. the Cornhuskers shot 55.3% from the field which was their best offensive performance in their last fifteen games. But now this Nebraska team goes back on the road where they are making just 39.3% of their shots. The Cornhuskers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Nebraska has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 7 games on the road, the Cornhuskers have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Furthermore, Nebraska has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 7 games against fellow Big Ten opponents, the Cornhuskers have played 6 of these games Under the Total. |
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01-18-18 | NC-Wilmington v. College of Charleston OVER 150 | Top | 76-80 | Win | 104 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Wilmington Seahawks (519) and the College of Charleston Cougars (520). UNC-Wilmington (5-13) has lost three of their last four games with their 81-77 loss to Northeastern on Saturday as a 4.5-point underdog. The Seahawks have then played 10 of their last 12 road games Over the Total after playing a game at home where both teams scored at least 75 points. UNC-Wilmington has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total. Additionally, the Seahawks have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 5 games against Colonial Athletic Conference opponents, UNC-Wilmington has played 4 of these games Over the Total. |
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01-16-18 | North Dakota v. North Dakota State OVER 148.5 | Top | 86-77 | Win | 100 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Dakota Fighting Hawks (547) and the North Dakota State Bison (548). North Dakota State (10-8) has won two of their last three games with their 82-64 win over Oral Roberts on Saturday as a 6.5-point favorite. We had the Over in that game and won that play with the number finishing around 140.5 despite the Bison holding the Golden Eagles to just a 31.7% shooting mark which was their best defensive performance of the season. North Dakota State has then played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 22 home games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. The Bison stay at home for this game where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% overall, North Dakota State has played 7 of these games Over the Total. |
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01-16-18 | Cincinnati v. UCF +7.5 | Top | 49-38 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Central Florida Knights (524) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (523). Central Florida (12-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday with their 62-53 win at UConn as a 1-point underdog. The Knights made just 36.5% of their shots which was their worst offensive effort in their last eleven games. They scored only 21 first-half points against the Huskies — but they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after failing to score more than 25 points in the first-half of their last game. This Central Florida team has rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a point spread setback. Head coach Johnny Dawkins’ team plays outstanding defense — they rank 4th in the nation Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (according to kenpom.com) and they have not allowed more than 65 points all season. They are led by their 7’6 junior Tacko Fall who leads the nation with a 76.8% shooting percentage while scoring 11.6 PPG along with 7.2 RPG and 2.0 Blocks-Per-Game. The team may also see the return of B.J. Taylor who was the team’s leading scorer at 17.4 PPG last year. Taylor has been nursing a broken foot and has yet to play this season — he will be a game-time decision for Dawkins. Returning home will help for this Knights team that is 8-1 on their home court this season with an average winning margin of +9.0 PPG. Offense has been an issue for this team — but they are scoring 71.2 PPG at home with a solid 47.9% shooting percentage. The UCF defense at home is outstanding as they hold their opponents to just 60.2 PPG along with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 37.9%. The Knights have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on their home court — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. And in their last 8 home games after winning three of their last four games, UCF has covered the point spread all 8 times. |
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01-12-18 | Marquette v. Butler -5 | Top | 83-94 | Win | 100 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Butler Bulldogs (822) minus the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (821). Butler (12-6) has lost three straight games with their 85-74 loss at Creighton on Tuesday as a 6-point underdog. The Bulldogs allowed the Blue Jays to make 54.1% of their shots in what was their worst defensive effort of the season. This has been a very difficult stretch in Big East play for this Butler team that was riding high after they upset the number-one ranked Villanova team (at the time) by a 101-93. They have since lost to Xavier, Seton Hall and Creighton that all rank in the Top-35 in the kenpom.com rankings system. The Bulldogs are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a point spread loss. And while Butler has not covered the point spread in these last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Now this team returns home where they are 9-1 with an average winning margin of +19.7 PPG. The Bulldogs shoot 53.6% from the field at home which translates into 88.0 PPG — and they hold their opponents to just 42.4% shooting on their home court. Butler has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. |
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01-11-18 | Denver v. North Dakota State OVER 138 | Top | 67-61 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Pioneers (587) and the North Dakota State Bison (588). North Dakota State (9-7) has won four of their last five games with their 84-79 upset win at South Dakota as an 8-point underdog. The Bison nailed 52.8% of their shots in that win — and that momentum may very well carry over into tonight’s game. North Dakota State has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And with that game with the Coyotes ending far above the 142.5 point total in that game, the Bison have now played a decisive 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total against fellow Summit League members. North Dakota State stays at home for this contest where they are shooting a slick 52.6% from the field. The Bison have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played eight of their last nine home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Defense is an issue for this team as they are allowing Summit foes to make 47% of their shots. Additionally, North Dakota State has played 6 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. |
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01-10-18 | LSU v. Arkansas -8 | Top | 75-54 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (776) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (775). Arkansas (11-4) has lost two straight games after their 88-77 loss at Auburn last Saturday as a 4-point underdog. The Razorbacks have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, Arkansas has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 75 points. The Razorbacks return home where they are a perfect 8-0 this season with an average winning margin of +22.6 PPG. The Arkansas offense cranks out 95.0 PPG on their home court while making 53.7% of their shots. They limit their opponents to just 41.7% shooting. The Razorbacks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. This team ranks 27th in the nation by making 39.7% from the field — and that number rises to a 41.2% mark when they are playing at home. |
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01-02-18 | Hofstra v. Northeastern OVER 149.5 | Top | 71-70 | Loss | -110 | 0 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Hofstra Pride (525) and the Northeastern Huskies (526). Hofstra (7-6) has lost three straight games after their 90-87 loss at William & Mary on Saturday as a 2-point underdog. The Pride have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Now Hofstra stays on the road where they have played 5 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Pride allow their home hosts to make 50.6% of their shots. That is one of the reasons why they have played 12 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6 or less points. |
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12-25-17 | Akron v. Davidson UNDER 149.5 | Top | 78-91 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
At 12:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Akron Zips (711) and the Davidson Wildcats (712) in the Diamond’s Head Classic. This game first consolation match on the last day of this holiday tournament in Hawai’i will be played at 7:30 AM local time to accommodate the early afternoon tipoff on the east coast for the ESPNU national audience. Expect both teams to be a bit sluggish for this one. Akron (6-4) has lost two straight games after their 64-62 loss to Princeton on Saturday as a 5.5-point underdog. The Zips have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Akron has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing their second game in three days — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing with one day or less between games. Furthermore, the Zips have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams outside the Mid-American Conference. And in their last 21 road games against non-conference foes, Akron has played 15 of these games Under the Total. And in their last 7 games played on a neutral court, the Zips have played 6 of these games Under the Total. |
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12-22-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Oakland -7 | Top | 81-86 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 6 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oakland Grizzlies (836) minus the points versus the Eastern Michigan Eagles (835). Oakland (7-5) will be looking to avenge a 95-89 loss at Eastern Michigan back on December 6th. The Grizzlies have won two of their last three games since that loss with their lone setback being a gritty 13-point loss to a might Michigan State team on a neutral court. Oakland has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games when looking to avenge a loss to their opponents. The Grizzlies come off a 97-86 loss to Towson State back on December 20th as a 4.5-point favorite — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Oakland is also 42-15-1 ATS in their last 58 games after a straight-up win. And in their last 15 games after scoring at least 90 points, the Grizzlies are 10-4-1 ATS. Oakland gets this rematch at home where they are a perfect 5-0 with season while outscoring their opponents by +14.2 PPG. This up-tempo Grizzlies team scores 89.6 PPG on 51.2% shooting. Oakland has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home. |
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12-09-17 | Cincinnati v. Florida +2 | Top | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (808)plus the point(s) versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (807). Florida (5-3) has lost three straight games after suffering an upset loss to Loyola-Illinois as a big 17-point favorite by 65-59 score back on Wednesday. The Gators were riding high with a win over Gonzaga that they followed up with a gritty but narrow loss to Duke on a neutral court two weeks ago. But then Florida got blown out by 17 points on their home court to Florida State before their loss to the Ramblers. The problems for the Gators are pretty simple to dissect: they have not been able to hit the side of the barn in their last two games while not passing the ball enough to find good shots. Florida made only 2 of their 19 shots from behind the arc against Loyola-Illinois. Over their last three games, they are shooting just 36.6% from the field while making only 8 of their 44 shots from behind the arc for an 18.2% shooting mark. They also have a terrible 14 assists in those three games while committing 25 turnovers which played a role in them not covering the point spread in three straight games. Additionally, Loyola-Illinois made 52% of their shots which is the second best effort any team has shot against the Gators this season. Yes, I am expecting a big bounce back from this team that returned four key pieces from the group that made a run to the Elite Eight last year while adding two solid transfers from Power Five Conference schools. The Gators have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 46 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after getting upset in two straight games as the favorite. And while they managed only 7 assists against the Ramblers, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after failing to register at least 9 assists in their last game. Florida is leading all SEC teams with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.6. In fact, the Gators only turn the ball in 13.4% of their possessions (4th in the nation) which should frustrate this Bearcats team that forces turnovers in 23.2% of their opponent’s possessions which is 32nd in the nation. Florida should find their stroke again — they make 48.6% of their shots when away from home and they are nailing a healthy 39.7% of their shots from behind the arc overall. This game is being played on a neutral court in Newark, New Jersey — and the Gators have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing on a neutral court as an underdog getting 3 points or less. Additionally, Florida has covered the point spread in a decisive 71 of their last 119 situations when the game is listed in the +/- 3-point range including twelve of the last nineteen. |
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12-05-17 | Gonzaga v. Villanova -4.5 | Top | 72-88 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (730) minus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (729). Gonzaga (7-1) was expected to take a step or two back this season after losing four key players from the team that lost in the National Championship Game to North Carolina last April. The Bulldogs lost their two big men in Przemek Karnowski and Zach Collins along with their best player in point guard Nigel Williams-Goss and starter Jordan Matthews which is simply a ton of talent even for elite program like Duke or Kentucky. Two starters in Johnathan Williams and Josh Perkins along with two players in the regular rotation of minutes return from last year’s team — but expectations have risen pretty quickly for this team once again. Gonzaga has two nice wins against Texas and Creighton while their only loss was a brutal defeat in double-overtime to an excellent Florida team. But the early returns may have this team feeling pretty, pretty, pretty good about themselves relative to the experienced talent on their roster. My read is that this is an overrated team right now — which offers us nice value in this non-conference showdown. The Bulldogs enter this game coming off a 91-74 win over Creighton on December 1st as a 9-point favorite. Gonzaga has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games. The Bulldogs shot 54.4% from the field against the Blue Jays’ often wavering defense — and this was exactly the same mark they shot in their last game against Incarnate Word. But Gonzaga has then failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 84 of their last 142 games after shooting at least 50% in their last two games under head coach Mark Few. The concern for Few has to be 3-point defense as opponents are making 38.7% of their shots from behind the arc which is 285th worst in the nation. Creighton made 12 shots from downtown against the Bulldogs which makes this matchup with Villanova a bit scary. This Gonzaga team is doing a good job of crashing the offensive glass as they are rebounding 35.8% of their missed shots — but the Wildcats are 17th in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding only 22.3% of their missed shots. |
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12-04-17 | Wisconsin v. Penn State -5 | Top | 64-63 | Loss | -115 | 0 h 25 m | Show |
Hollywood Sports’ 25* CBB BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH |
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11-29-17 | Duke -8.5 v. Indiana | Top | 91-81 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (765) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (766). Duke (8-0) is absolutely loaded with talent this season — this as an impressive a Blue Devils team as I have seen in many years. They should overwhelm this Hoosiers team that is in a major rebuilding mode after Tom Crean was let go and three of his players left the program to take their chances in the professional ranks. Duke did not play particularly well Sunday night but did what they needed to do to rally from an early 15-point lead and then another 14-point deficit with under 10 minutes to go to take an 87-84 victory. The Blue Devils only shot 43.9% from the field — but they did make 10 of their 23 shots from the 3-point line (43.5%). Frankly, this team is like the big and powerful North Carolina teams of the last few seasons — except this team will shoot and make more 3-pointers. 6’11 freshman Marvin Bagley deserves the hype he is receiving — he averaged 26.5 PPG while pulling down 13.5 Rebounds-Per-Game in four games last week. He is joined by 6’10 freshman Wendell Carter to give this team incredible size down low. The Blue Devils lead the nation by pulling down 43.2% of their missed shots. Mike Krzyzewski has embraced shot volume as his team’s defining characteristic — and that has helped them lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency so far this season. Look for Duke to build off this momentum as they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. The Blue Devils have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against Big Ten opponents. Additionally, Duke is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in the last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Blue Devils are 6-0-1 ATS. |
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04-03-17 | North Carolina v. Gonzaga +1.5 | Top | 71-65 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
At 9:20 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (602) plus the point(s) versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (601). North Carolina (32-7) looked very shaky down the stretch against Oregon on Saturday but managed to hang on for a 77-76 victory. That ended up being a very close game despite the Ducks making only 37.9% of their shots. The Tar Heels also made 8 of their 21 shots from the 3-point line for a 38.1% clip which was above their 36.2% season-average. But North Carolina made only 17 of their 47 shots inside the arc for a low 36.2% mark. Over their last three games, the Tar Heels are shooting just 40% from the field. These are all very concerning trends for a team that has shown a proclivity all season to blow leads when away from Chapel Hill this season. Furthermore, point guard Joel Berry II still looked to be hobbled with his two twisted ankles Saturday night despite having six days to recuperate. Over his last six games going back to the ACC Tournament, Berry II has made only 20 of his 68 shots. North Carolina is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. And in their last 4 games as a favorite laying less than 7 points, the Tar Heels are just 0-3-1 ATS. |
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04-01-17 | Oregon v. North Carolina UNDER 153.5 | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:45 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (813) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (814). Oregon (33-5) held Kansas to just 35% from the field en route to their 74-60 win last Saturday. The Ducks flexed their defensive muscles in that game by holding a potent Jayhawks offense that had averaged 96 PPG in their three previous Tournament games to scoring just those 60 points in 64 possessions. In the Ducks’ four tournament games, they have averaged 66 possessions so it is likely that head coach Dana Altman will look to slow this game down where both teams do not have more than 65 possessions apiece — and that makes the Under look rather appetizing with the Total set in the low 150s. Oregon has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 150-159.5 point range. The Ducks have also played 12 of their last 14 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150-159.5 point range. And while the Tar Heels average 66 shots per game, Oregon has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams that average at least 62 shots per game — and that includes 7 straight Unders when those games are the road. |
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04-01-17 | South Carolina v. Gonzaga -6 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
At 6:05 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (812) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (811). South Carolina (26-10) has pulled off three straight upsets in this NCAA Tournament — but expect for their bubble to burst tonight as they look more like the team that lost six of their last nine games before this Tournament started. These Gamecocks have covered the point spread in all four of their NCAA Tournament games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after covering the point spread in four or five of the last six games. Somehow this team is scoring at a crisp 1.16 Points-Per-Possession rate which is well above their 1.00 PPP rate in SEC play. Frankly, even if this Gamecocks team was not a prime candidate to get a visit from the Regression Gods, this is just a terrible matchup for them. The Bulldogs out-rebound their opponents by +7.0 RPG — and South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 24 games after fifteen games into the season against team who out-rebound their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG. Gonzaga also holds their opponents to just 60.9 PPG — but the Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who do not allow more than 64 PPG. And while the Bulldogs commit only 17 personal fouls per game, South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of the last 17 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who do not commit more than 17 personal fouls per game. To make things worse, Gonzaga has worked on pressure defenses for a full two weeks given their Sweet Sixteen matchup with West Virginia and now a full week to digest that game tape while preparing for the Gamecocks’ pressure. |
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03-30-17 | Georgia Tech v. TCU UNDER 134 | Top | 56-88 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (711) and the TCU Horned Frogs (712). Georgia Tech (21-15) held Cal-State Bakersfield to just 35.0% on Tuesday en route to their 76-61 victory as 3.5-point favorites to put them in the Finals of the NIT. The Under is then 5-2-1 in the Yellow Jackets’ last 8 games after a point spread victory. Josh Pastner’s team is playing outstanding defense in this tournament after finishing 2nd in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But this Georgia Tech team can struggle to find baskets after finishing last in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. This team shot just 43.3% from the field against the Roadrunners. Moving forward, the Yellow Jackets have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. Georgia Tech has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. And in their last 26 games as an underdog getting less than 7 points, the Under is 19-6-1. |
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03-29-17 | Furman v. St. Peter's -3 | Top | 51-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the St. Peter’s Peacocks (526) minus the points versus the Furman Paladins (525). St. Peter’s (21-13) reached the Semifinals of the College Insider Tournament with their 49-44 win at Texas State as a 1-point underdog. The Peacocks held the Bobcats to just 29.4% shooting — and their last five opponents have shot just 40.2% from the field. St. Peter’s has then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Tellingly, the Peacocks have covered the point spread in 9 straight games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. This team is a “Slow Killer” in that they play at a slow pace but generate extra possessions by forcing turnovers at a 20.9% range which is 41st best in the nation. The Paladins are vulnerable to turning the ball over as they rank 224th in the nation by turning the ball over in 19.1% of their possessions. Not after playing their last two games on the road in this tournament, the Peacocks return home for this contest. St. Peter’s has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored by less than 7 points. |
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03-28-17 | CS Bakersfield v. Georgia Tech -2.5 | Top | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (778) minus the points versus the Cal-State Bakersfield Roadrunners (777). Cal-State Bakersfield (25-9) has pulled off three straight upsets in this NIT to reach the Semifinals of this tournament in Madison Square Garden. Their last contest was an impressive 80-76 win at UT-Arlington last Wednesday where they were a 4-point underdog. But after playing on the road for the third straight game to pull off their third straight upset, we are expecting a significant emotional letdown as they travel across to the country to conclude this tournament in the Big Apple. This is quite an accomplishment for this Western Athletic Conference team. The Roadrunners have been on-fire with their 3-point shooting. After making 9 of their 21 shots from behind the arc in their win against Cal, they followed that up by making 11 of 19 shots from 3-point land against Colorado State and then made another 10 of 19 shots from behind the arc in their win against UT-Arlington. If the Roadrunners continue to make 50.8% of their shots from downtown, they will likely win this game. But expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance in Madison Square Garden tonight for this team that makes only 32.4% of their 3-point shots behind the arc. The Yellow Jackets allow their opponents to make just 33.3% of their 3-point shots. Their 3-point defense has been even better in the NIT. |
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03-27-17 | Wyoming v. Coastal Carolina +1.5 | Top | 81-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (744) plus (or minus) the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (743). Coastal Carolina (19-17) hosts the first-game of this three-game series before Wyoming hosts the last two potential games of this series on their home court in Laramie. The Chanticleers reached the Finals of this Tournament with their 89-78 victory over Illinois-Chicago last Wednesday. Coastal Carolina did allow the Flames to shoot 50% from the field in that victory which was their worst defensive effort in their last sixteen games. Expect a much better performance on the defensive end of the court tonight as the Chanticleers hold their visitors to just 39.0% shooting. Coastal Carolina is 14-6 on their home court where they outscore their opponents by +7.8 PPG. The Chanticleers are an impressive 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games on their home court. Coastal Carolina is also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 4 home games as an underdog, the Chanticleers are 3-0-1 ATS. |
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03-26-17 | Kentucky v. North Carolina -2.5 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
At 5:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (724) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (723). North Carolina (30-7) got their offense on track on Friday with their 92-80 victory over Butler. Justin Jackson and Joel Berry III broke out of their scoring slump in this Tournament by combining to make 17 of their 30 shots from the field. Overall, the Tar Heels made 54.4% of their shots in this game. North Carolina has then covered the point spread in 8 straight games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. This showdown will be a rematch of a game these two played in Las Vegas back on December 17th which Kentucky won by a 103-100 score in a shootout. The Tar Heels only pulled down 29.4% of their missed shots in that game. This team led the nation by rebounding 42.1% of their missed shots this season — and that mark has increased to a 43% mark in the NCAA Tournament. Except UNC to control the boards in this rematch — and it is this skill that has helped Roy Williams team go 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games played on a neutral court. The Tar Heels have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the NCAA Tournament. |
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03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga UNDER 145.5 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
At 6:05 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Xavier Musketeers (513) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (514). Gonzaga (35-1) held West Virginia to just 26.7% on Thursday in their 61-58 victory. The Bulldogs have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Gonzaga is playing outstanding defense in this tournament as their three opponents are shooting just 33.3% from the field while scoring at just a 0.85 Points-Per-Possession rate. Most impressively, the Bulldogs are holding their opponents to just 37% shooting inside the arc. Gonzaga needs their defense to continue to be outstanding when considering that they are shooting just 29% from behind the arc in this tournament. Moving forward, the Bulldogs have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total against teams outside the West Coast Conference. And in their last 8 games played on a neutral court, Gonzaga has played 6 of these games Under the Total. |
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03-24-17 | UCLA v. Kentucky UNDER 167 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
At 9:35 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (875) and the Kentucky Wildcats (876). UCLA (31-4) held the Cincinnati Bearcats to just 44.8% shooting to advance to the Sweet 16 with their 79-67 victory as a 4-point favorite. The Bruins have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The defensive struggles of this team is a tired meme that continues to offer us great value with the Under for Steve Alford’s team. This UCLA defense has improved since Alford installed a tricky 3-2 zone that presents opponents a challenging unique look. Save for their two games against Arizona and what the Bearcats shot against UCLA was their worst defensive performance in ten previous contests. The Bruins have seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against teams outside the Pac-12. And in their last 7 games played on a neutral court, UCLA has played 5 of these games Under the Total. |
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03-24-17 | UCLA v. Kentucky +1.5 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
At 9:39 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (876) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (875). Kentucky (31-5) has won thirteen straight games with their 65-62 win over Wichita State last weekend. Interior defense has been a vulnerability of this team all season — so the fact that the Wildcats held the Shockers to just a 38.7% shooting mark including a low 42% mark inside the arc is very encouraging for John Calipari’s team. Calipari’s teams always improve to peak during March Madness — and he wants his teams to constantly get better on the defensive end of the court. This team also has the benefit of reviewing the game tape of their 97-92 loss to UCLA back on December 3rd in Rupp Arena. Calipari had his team playing at a much quicker pace back then — expect a game plan now that does not attempt to simply outscore the Bruins. This Kentucky team has three future NBA first round draft choices on the roster with Bam Adebayo, Malik Monk and De’Aron Fox. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 NCAA Tourney games as an underdog. Kentucky is also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog on a neutral court. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Wildcats are 3-0-1 ATS. |
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03-23-17 | Xavier v. Arizona -7.5 | Top | 73-71 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 22 m | Show |
At 10:05 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona Wildcats (818) minus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (817). Xavier (23-13) reached the Sweet 16 with a dominant 91-66 win over Florida State as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. That was the Musketeers’ best offensive performance in their last twenty-one games. This has been an improbable run for Chris Mack’s team who lost his point guard to a season-ending injury early in the Big East campaign which helped lead to a difficult six-game losing streak that almost cost this team an At-Large bid to the NCAA Tournament. So this is a very nice accomplishment. But here comes the “but.” This team looks very ripe for a significant letdown now after the euphoria of shocking the Seminoles and making the Sweet 16. The Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after playing a game as an underdog. This is a team that can struggle to score — they were just 7th in the Big East by making just 33.0% of their 3-point shots. Xavier does consistently thrive by crashing the glass on both ends of the court — but Mack’s teams struggle against elite teams that can match his team on the boards. The Wildcats out-rebound their opponents by +6.7 RPG — and the Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against opponents who out-rebound their foes by at least +6.0 RPG. Additionally, Xavier has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 80%. |
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03-22-17 | CS Bakersfield v. Texas-Arlington -6.5 | Top | 80-76 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the Texas-Arlington Mavericks (770) minus the points versus the California State-Bakersfield Roadrunners (769). Cal-State Bakersfield (24-9) pulled their second straight upset in the NIT with their 81-63 win at Colorado State on Monday as a 4.5-point underdog. The Roadrunners shot 48.3% from the field against the Rams which was their best offensive effort — by far — in their last six games with their next best shooting effort being just a 41.8% shooting mark. This is a team that has shot just 37.0% from the field over their last five games. To make matters worse for this team, they do not make up for things on the free throw line as they rank 346th in the nation by making only 63.1% of their free throws. CS-Bakersfield does put their opponent’s on the line though given their rough 47.2% opponent’s Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio which is 340th in the nation. The Roadrunners also turn the ball over too much as they rank 309th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.6% of their possessions. The Mavericks do pressure the basketball as they ranked 2nd in the Sun Belt by forcing turnovers in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions. These are all dangerous signs forced to play their third straight game on the road in this tournament. |
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03-22-17 | Illinois v. UCF UNDER 130.5 | Top | 58-68 | Win | 100 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Illinois Fighting Illini (767) and the Central Florida Knights (768). Illinois (20-14) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the NIT with their 71-56 win over Boise State on Monday as an 8-point favorite. The Fighting Illini have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread win. This team has also played 8 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit win on their home court. Now the Illini go on the road where they have played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Fighting Illini are the favorites in this game. Illinois has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as the favorite when laying less than 7 points. |
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03-20-17 | George Washington v. Illinois-Chicago OVER 149 | Top | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 1 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the George Washington Colonials (629) and the Illinois-Chicago Flames (630). George Washington (20-14) won their opening game in the College Basketball Invitational with their 73-69 win over Toledo last Wednesday as a 6-point favorite. The Colonials have then played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. George Washington has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Now the Colonials go on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 Over the Total. GW has also played 4 straight games on the road Over the Total as a favorite laying less than 7 points. |
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03-19-17 | Cincinnati v. UCLA UNDER 154 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
At 9:40 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bearcats (731) and the UCLA Bruins (732). UCLA (30-4) enters this game coming off a hot shooting night where they nailed 62.7% from the field in their 97-80 victory over Kent State. The Bruins have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. UCLA has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Steve Alford’s team has the reputation for having a mediocre defense — but they have held their last five opponents to just a 42.5% shooting mark. The Bruins will be facing a Bearcats team that will be looking to slow the pace of this game way down — and they hold their opponents to just 60.8 PPG. UCLA has played 17 of their last 22 road games Under the Total against teams that do not allow more than 64 PPG. The Bruins have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as a favorite. And while both teams have scored 75 points in the last two games for UCLA, that helps place the Under in a historical angle that has been 79% effective since 1997. In games played on a neutral court, when teams who score at least 76 PPG (UCLA: 90.6 PPG) who have played two straight games where both teams scored at least 75 points and now faces a team that does not allow more than 63 PPG, these games then finished Under the Total in 42 of the last 53 situations where these conditions applied. |
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03-19-17 | Rhode Island +5.5 v. Oregon | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Rhode Island Rams (729) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (730). Interestingly, this game features the top two teams in the nation in blocked shots. That suggests that this will be a defensive-oriented game — and that typically offers value to the underdog. Rhode Island (25-9) has won nine straight games after their 84-72 win over Creighton on Friday. This team has covered the point spread in four straight games with Dan Hurley’s team finally healthy and playing at full strength. They have the defensive makeup to make this a very tough game for the Ducks. The Rams are 9th in the nation in defensive effective field goal percentage — and they are second in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 29.1% shooting mark behind the arc. This Rhode Island team has the talent to disrupt the Oregon offensive flow and get them out of their rhythm. Expect Hurley to have his team slow the pace of the game down to a slog. The Rams have covered the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral court. And in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, Rhode Island has covered the point spread all 4 times. |
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03-18-17 | Xavier v. Florida State -7 | Top | 91-66 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
At 6:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (524) minus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (523). Xavier (22-13) has won four of their last five games after pulling the upset on Thursday by defeating Maryland by a 76-65 score. The Musketeers shot 50% from the field which was their best offensive effort in their last twelve games since facing a suspect defensive team in Creighton — so regression is likely on that end of the court. This team has been an enigma to the oddsmakers for months as they failed to cover the point spread in seven straight games amidst a six-game losing streak. The team was suffering from the season-ending injury to point guard Edmond Sumner followed up by Myles Davis leaving the team after returning for just three games after serving a first-semester suspension. But now this Xavier team has recovered to win four of five games while covering the point spread in five straight games. Look for the bubble to burst on what is now a flawed basketball team after the losses of those two players. This team relies on a freshman point guard in Quentin Goodin who was at best a part-time player earlier in the season before losing Sumner. Despite the upset win on Thursday, the Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. Xavier has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 7 games outside the Atlantic-10, the Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. |
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03-17-17 | Marquette v. South Carolina +1 | Top | 73-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
At 9:50 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (820) plus (or minus) the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (819). South Carolina (22-10) stumbles into the NCAA Tournament with two straight losses after an ugly 63-54 loss to Alabama in the SEC Tournament. The Gamecocks shot only 36.7% in that game — and that was actually their best offensive effort in their last three games after making just 35.9% and 34% in their previous two contests. But scoring will be easier tonight when facing this Golden Eagles’ defense that was 9th in the Big East in Defensive Efficiency. South Carolina will enjoy a big geographical advantage with this game being played only 100 miles away in Greenville. And in a battle of Offense v. Defense, we will happily side with Frank Martin’s team. The toughness of this team should make the difference as they cut off driving and passing lanes. Marquette may have led the nation with a 43% shooting percentage from the 3-point line but the Gamecocks were 5th in the nation by holding opponents to just a 29.6% shooting percentage from behind the arc. South Carolina has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 expected higher scoring games with the Total set in the 140-149.5 point range. Additionally, the Gamecocks are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games played on a neutral court — and they are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games against non-SEC teams. |
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03-17-17 | Rhode Island v. Creighton UNDER 141.5 | Top | 84-72 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
At 4:30 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Rhode Island Rams (843) and the Creighton Bluejays (844). Rhode Island (24-9) has won eight straight games to win the Atlantic-10 Tournament with their 70-63 win over VCU on Sunday. The formula for success for this team now when facing the offensive juggernaut which is this Bluejays’ team is to slow the pace of the game, force bad shots on defense and crash the boards on offense — just like how they slowed down the Rams in their last contest. While that game finished just above the 132.5 point total, Rhode Island has still played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total when played on a neutral court. These Rams have also played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total with the number set in the 140-149.5 point range. Rhode Island has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams outside the A-10. Head coach Dan Hurley will try to make this game a slog. Creighton scores 82.1 PPG while throwing 22 shots from behind the arc per game. The Rams have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total against teams that score at least 77 PPG — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 21 shots from the 3-point line per game. |
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03-16-17 | Vermont +9.5 v. Purdue | Top | 70-80 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:27 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Vermont Catamounts (731) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (732). Vermont (29-5) played the role of Schoolyard Bully by going undefeated in American East play while rattling off twenty-one straight games. Yet they shot only 33.3% from the field against Albany to win the American East Tournament so this team will be focused on improving their effort after surviving their worst shooting performance of the season. This team has the profile that reminds me of the recent Harvard teams that dominated the Ivy but changed gears in the Big Dance to great success. The Catamounts made 39.7% of their 3-pointers in conference play but these shots accounted for only 25.4% of their points as opposed to the 30.4% national average. Why? Because this Vermont team eats teams up alive inside the arc where they make 55.6% of their shots which is 12th in the nation. And despite the Boilermakers’ size, they struggle with interior defense as the were just 6th in the Big Ten with these opponents making 47.4% of these shots. Look for the Catamounts to launch more 3s in this game while continuing to slow the pace — they averaged only 67.1 possessions per game. Vermont can also increase their pressure on defense — they forced turnovers in 19.4% of their opponent’s possessions which was 2nd in their conference while Purdue was vulnerable here by seeing turnovers in 18.0% of their possessions which was 7th in the Big Ten. Additionally, this Catamounts team plays good defense that led the American East in both Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and opponent’s effective field goal percentage. This helped Vermont cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral court as an underdog. |
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03-15-17 | Belmont +6.5 v. Georgia | Top | 78-69 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the Belmont Bruins (625) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (626). Belmont (22-6) takes the floor for the first time since their disappointing 65-59 loss to Jacksonville State back on March 3rd as an 8-point favorite in the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. The Bruins shot only 36.7% from the field after missing 30 of their 38 shots from behind the arc. Live by the 3 — die by the 3. But Belmont is a team that mostly lived quite well shooting 3-pointers like there was no tomorrow. The Bruins were 2nd in the nation with 56.2% of their shots coming from the 3-point line — and they were 10th in the nation with 39.1% of their points coming from made 3-pointers. Belmont is more than just a 3-point shooting machine either as the 62.4% shooting mark inside the arc leads the nation. Considering that this team made 37.2% of their 3-pointers in conference play and they finished 10th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.1%, this team should shoot better from the field tonight. The Bruins are disappointed to not win the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament — but they also lack a signature win this year after losing to Vanderbilt, Florida, Rhode Island and Middle Tennessee. But Belmont has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Bruins have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they covered the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. |
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03-15-17 | North Carolina Central v. UC-Davis UNDER 132.5 | Top | 63-67 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
At 6:40 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina-Central Eagles (621) and the UC-Davis Aggies (622). UNC-Central (25-8) won the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference on Saturday with their 67-59 win over Norfolk State as a 7-point favorite after holding the Spartans to just a 35.4% shooting percentage. The Eagles were 3rd in the MEAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UNC-Central needed this defensive effort as they only shot 39.3% from the field themselves. The Eagles have seen the Under go 13-3-1 in their last 17 boarded games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 boarded games after a point spread victory. UNC-Central was rewarded with their automatic bid by a trip to Dayton to play in the First-Four — and the Under is 13-3-1 in their last 17 boarded games played on a neutral court. This Eagles team has also played 5 of their last 6 boarded games Under the Total as a favorite laying less than 7 points — and the Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 boarded games on a neutral court as the favorite. Additionally, UNC-Central has played 4 straight boarded games Under the Total against a non-conference opponent. |
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03-14-17 | Kansas State -1.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 95-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
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03-11-17 | New Mexico State v. CS Bakersfield UNDER 127.5 | Top | 70-60 | Loss | -103 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
At 11:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (771) and the Cal-State Bakersfield Roadrunners (772). New Mexico State (27-5) has won four straight games with their 78-60 win over Missouri-KC as an 8.5-point favorite. The Aggies held the Kangaroos to just a 36.7% shooting percentage which was the third time over their last four games that they have held an opponent to no better than a 36.7% shooting mark from the field. New Mexico State sot a blistering 55.8% from the field themselves which was their best shooting performance over their last nine games. Expect the Aggies to come back to Earth with their shooting considering that they make only 45.1% of their shots away from home. New Mexico State has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Aggies have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow Western Athletic Conference opponents. Moving forward, New Mexico State has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total as a favorite. The Under is also 24-7-1 in their last 32 games when playing on a neutral court. |
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03-11-17 | Creighton v. Villanova UNDER 141.5 | Top | 60-74 | Win | 100 | 1 h 52 m | Show |
At 5:30 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Bluejays (745) and the Villanova Wildcats (746). Villanova (30-3) has won four straight games with their narrow 55-53 win over Seton Hall yesterday as an 11.5-point favorite. The Wildcats have then played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Villanova has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 7 games as a favorite laying 7-12.5 points, the Wildcats have played 6 of these games Under the Total. They face a Bluejays team that does nail 51% of their shots this season — but Villanova has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who shoot at least 45% from the field. |
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03-11-17 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin UNDER 124.5 | Top | 48-76 | Win | 100 | 1 h 16 m | Show |
At 3:30 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Northwestern Wildcats (731) and the Wisconsin Badgers (732). Northwestern (23-10) has won two straight games with their 72-64 win over Maryland as a 2-point underdog yesterday. The Wildcats shot a sizzling 55.3% from the field in that game which was the third time over their last four games where they made at least 52.9% from the field. Regression is likely for this team that makes just 43.8% of their shots this season — and that number drops to only a 43.2% mark when away from home. As it is, Northwestern has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after both a straight-up win as well as after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Under is 9-2-1 in the Wildcats’ last 12 games as an underdog. And in their last 13 games played on a neutral court, Northwestern has played 10 of these gams Under the Total. Now they face this Badgers team that outscores their opponents by +10.8 PPG — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG. |
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Frank Sawyer NCAA-B Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-14-18 | Washington v. Boise State UNDER 148.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
03-14-18 | Colgate v. San Francisco UNDER 140.5 | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
03-14-18 | Arizona State v. Syracuse +2 | Top | 56-60 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
03-13-18 | Boston College v. Western Kentucky -5 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
03-13-18 | Long Island v. Radford UNDER 139 | Top | 61-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
03-11-18 | Houston v. Cincinnati -4 | Top | 55-56 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 57 m | Show |
03-10-18 | USC +4 v. Arizona | Top | 61-75 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
03-10-18 | West Virginia v. Kansas +1.5 | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 2 h 37 m | Show |
03-09-18 | San Diego State v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 90-73 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
03-09-18 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee UNDER 133 | Top | 59-62 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
03-09-18 | Providence v. Xavier -8 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -104 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
03-09-18 | VCU v. Rhode Island -9 | Top | 67-76 | Push | 0 | 1 h 17 m | Show |
03-08-18 | San Diego State v. Fresno State UNDER 138 | Top | 64-52 | Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show |
03-07-18 | Florida Atlantic +10 v. UAB | Top | 72-83 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
03-07-18 | Arkansas State v. Louisiana-Monroe -4 | Top | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
03-06-18 | CS Sacramento v. Portland State -7.5 | Top | 67-71 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
03-06-18 | BYU +9.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 54-74 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
03-05-18 | NC-Wilmington v. Northeastern -7 | Top | 52-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
03-05-18 | Cleveland State v. Oakland UNDER 146 | Top | 44-43 | Win | 100 | 1 h 4 m | Show |
03-03-18 | Penn State v. Purdue -7 | Top | 70-78 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
03-02-18 | Indiana State v. Illinois State -1 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
03-02-18 | Ohio v. Miami-OH -3.5 | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
03-02-18 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State UNDER 132 | Top | 60-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
03-01-18 | Oregon State v. Washington UNDER 139.5 | Top | 77-79 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
02-28-18 | Eastern Illinois v. Tennessee State -3 | Top | 73-71 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
02-28-18 | Providence v. Xavier -10.5 | Top | 74-84 | Loss | -106 | 2 h 5 m | Show |
02-27-18 | Ball State v. Central Michigan OVER 150 | Top | 51-75 | Loss | -103 | 1 h 2 m | Show |
02-26-18 | Duke v. Virginia Tech +5.5 | Top | 63-64 | Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
02-25-18 | Mercer v. Wofford OVER 139 | Top | 69-68 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 36 m | Show |
02-24-18 | Massachusetts v. George Mason OVER 147 | Top | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
02-24-18 | Valparaiso v. Drake -4.5 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -102 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
02-23-18 | Wofford v. East Tennessee State -8.5 | Top | 75-71 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
02-22-18 | Tennessee State v. Tennessee Tech UNDER 135.5 | Top | 64-69 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
02-22-18 | Georgia Southern v. Texas-Arlington -5 | Top | 63-83 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
02-21-18 | San Diego State v. Air Force +8 | Top | 67-56 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
02-21-18 | Georgia v. South Carolina UNDER 130.5 | Top | 57-66 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
02-20-18 | Indiana v. Nebraska UNDER 138.5 | Top | 57-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
02-19-18 | Oklahoma v. Kansas UNDER 165.5 | Top | 74-104 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
02-17-18 | Montana +1 v. Idaho | Top | 77-79 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
02-16-18 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 132.5 | Top | 76-71 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
02-16-18 | Pennsylvania v. Columbia +2 | Top | 74-62 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
02-15-18 | Weber State v. Portland State OVER 160.5 | Top | 95-86 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
02-12-18 | TCU v. West Virginia -7.5 | Top | 66-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
02-10-18 | Gonzaga v. St. Mary's UNDER 146.5 | Top | 78-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
02-08-18 | Cal Poly v. CS-Fullerton -8.5 | Top | 59-75 | Win | 100 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
02-07-18 | George Mason v. Fordham OVER 136.5 | Top | 66-67 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
02-02-18 | Green Bay v. Wisc-Milwaukee -7 | Top | 58-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
02-01-18 | College of Charleston v. Northeastern -4 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 47 m | Show |
01-31-18 | Wyoming v. Colorado State OVER 149 | Top | 91-86 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
01-31-18 | La Salle v. Davidson -8.5 | Top | 65-84 | Win | 100 | 2 h 10 m | Show |
01-30-18 | Akron v. Miami-OH -3.5 | Top | 64-79 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
01-29-18 | Kansas v. Kansas State +2 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
01-28-18 | Connecticut v. Temple -6 | Top | 57-85 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
01-28-18 | Michigan State v. Maryland +6.5 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 1 h 16 m | Show |
01-27-18 | Kentucky v. West Virginia -10 | Top | 83-76 | Loss | -108 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
01-25-18 | Long Beach State v. Cal Poly OVER 150 | Top | 87-71 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show |
01-24-18 | DePaul +3.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
01-23-18 | Creighton v. St. John's UNDER 156 | Top | 68-63 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
01-23-18 | Kansas v. Oklahoma -1.5 | Top | 80-85 | Win | 100 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
01-22-18 | Nebraska v. Ohio State UNDER 139 | Top | 59-64 | Win | 100 | 1 h 21 m | Show |
01-18-18 | NC-Wilmington v. College of Charleston OVER 150 | Top | 76-80 | Win | 104 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
01-16-18 | North Dakota v. North Dakota State OVER 148.5 | Top | 86-77 | Win | 100 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
01-16-18 | Cincinnati v. UCF +7.5 | Top | 49-38 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 53 m | Show |
01-12-18 | Marquette v. Butler -5 | Top | 83-94 | Win | 100 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
01-11-18 | Denver v. North Dakota State OVER 138 | Top | 67-61 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
01-10-18 | LSU v. Arkansas -8 | Top | 75-54 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
01-02-18 | Hofstra v. Northeastern OVER 149.5 | Top | 71-70 | Loss | -110 | 0 h 22 m | Show |
12-25-17 | Akron v. Davidson UNDER 149.5 | Top | 78-91 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
12-22-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Oakland -7 | Top | 81-86 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 6 m | Show |
12-09-17 | Cincinnati v. Florida +2 | Top | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
12-05-17 | Gonzaga v. Villanova -4.5 | Top | 72-88 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
12-04-17 | Wisconsin v. Penn State -5 | Top | 64-63 | Loss | -115 | 0 h 25 m | Show |
11-29-17 | Duke -8.5 v. Indiana | Top | 91-81 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
04-03-17 | North Carolina v. Gonzaga +1.5 | Top | 71-65 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
04-01-17 | Oregon v. North Carolina UNDER 153.5 | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
04-01-17 | South Carolina v. Gonzaga -6 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
03-30-17 | Georgia Tech v. TCU UNDER 134 | Top | 56-88 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
03-29-17 | Furman v. St. Peter's -3 | Top | 51-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
03-28-17 | CS Bakersfield v. Georgia Tech -2.5 | Top | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
03-27-17 | Wyoming v. Coastal Carolina +1.5 | Top | 81-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
03-26-17 | Kentucky v. North Carolina -2.5 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga UNDER 145.5 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
03-24-17 | UCLA v. Kentucky UNDER 167 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
03-24-17 | UCLA v. Kentucky +1.5 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
03-23-17 | Xavier v. Arizona -7.5 | Top | 73-71 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 22 m | Show |
03-22-17 | CS Bakersfield v. Texas-Arlington -6.5 | Top | 80-76 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
03-22-17 | Illinois v. UCF UNDER 130.5 | Top | 58-68 | Win | 100 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
03-20-17 | George Washington v. Illinois-Chicago OVER 149 | Top | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 1 h 46 m | Show |
03-19-17 | Cincinnati v. UCLA UNDER 154 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
03-19-17 | Rhode Island +5.5 v. Oregon | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
03-18-17 | Xavier v. Florida State -7 | Top | 91-66 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
03-17-17 | Marquette v. South Carolina +1 | Top | 73-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
03-17-17 | Rhode Island v. Creighton UNDER 141.5 | Top | 84-72 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
03-16-17 | Vermont +9.5 v. Purdue | Top | 70-80 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
03-15-17 | Belmont +6.5 v. Georgia | Top | 78-69 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
03-15-17 | North Carolina Central v. UC-Davis UNDER 132.5 | Top | 63-67 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
03-14-17 | Kansas State -1.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 95-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
03-11-17 | New Mexico State v. CS Bakersfield UNDER 127.5 | Top | 70-60 | Loss | -103 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
03-11-17 | Creighton v. Villanova UNDER 141.5 | Top | 60-74 | Win | 100 | 1 h 52 m | Show |
03-11-17 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin UNDER 124.5 | Top | 48-76 | Win | 100 | 1 h 16 m | Show |