03-12-19 |
Northeastern v. Hofstra +2.5 |
Top |
82-74 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Hofstra Pride (612) plus the points versus the Northeastern Huskies (611). Hofstra (27-6) has won their last four games after reaching the Finals of the Colonial Athletic Association tournament with their 78-74 win over Delaware as an 11-point favorite. Northeastern (22-10) has won six straight games as well as eleven of their last twelve with their 70-67 win over the College of Charleston yesterday as a 3-point favorite. With this event taking place in Charleston, this is a true neutral court for both teams.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PRIDE MINUS THE POINTS: Hofstra survived the upstart Blue Hens yesterday despite shooting just 44.6% from the field which was the worst shooting effort for them in their last five games. Led by their superstar guard, Justin Wright-Foreman, the Pride are one of the best offensive teams in the nation. They rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They also are the second-best free throw shooting team in the country as they make 80.1% of their free throw attempts. Wright-Foreman will be the best player on the court tonight — he is averaging 27.0 PPG this season while making 43.7% of his 3-point shots. Despite their disappointing shooting effort yesterday, Hofstra is still shooting 51.4% over their last five games. The Pride also allowed Delaware to make 49.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive in their last four contests. Hofstra should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 road games after failing to cover the point spread in their last game. Additionally, while the Pride have not covered the point spread in six of their last seven games including their last two contests, they have then covered the point spread in 43 of their last 61 games on the road after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Furthermore, Hofstra has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight contests. The Pride are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Northeastern may be due for a letdown playing their third game in three days as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games when playing at least their third straight game in a seven-day period. And while this team has won fifteen of their last seventeen games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after winning at least fifteen of their last twenty games. The Huskies have also played their last two games Under the Total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after playing their last two games Under the Total. Additionally, while Northeastern has not allowed their last six opponents to pull down more than 31 rebounds overall, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 31 rebounds by their opponents in at least four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in these last four situations where their last five opponents have not rebounded more than 31 boards.
FINAL TAKE: Northeastern won the last meeting between these two teams to split the regular season record them back on February 2nd by a 75-61 score. I don’t like this situation for the Huskies after finally catching their proverbial white whale in the College of Charleston who defeated them three times last year including in the Finals of this tournament after a 14-4 record during the regular season. This team will feel tons of pressure to not blow this opportunity while also being susceptible to a letdown after defeating the Cougars. And it will be the Pride who will have the best player on the court — with a good mix of complementary players. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Tournament Game of the Year with the Hofstra Pride (612) plus the points versus the Northeastern Huskies (611). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-11-19 |
San Diego +4.5 v. St. Mary's |
Top |
62-69 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Diego Toreros (887) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (888). San Diego (21-13) reached the Semifinals of the West Coast Conference tournament on Saturday with their 80-57 drubbing of BYU as a 3.5-point underdog. Saint Mary’s (20-11) takes the court again after their 69-55 loss at home to Gonzaga as a 9.5-point underdog back on March 2nd. This tournament is taking place down the street at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TOREROS PLUS THE POINTS: Frankly, San Diego’s victory over the Cougars was even more dominant than the 23-point margin suggests. BYU went on a 21-5 run over the last 6:42 of that game with their backups taking out a significant chunk of what was a 38-point lead. This Toreros team is much better than their record suggests. San Diego returned four starters from last year’s team that won 20 games. With high ambitions entering the season, the Toreros embraced a challenging non-conference schedule that included competitive losses at Washington and OIe Miss along with a win over Colorado. But this team was then hit by the injury bug with starting center Yauhen Massalski missing three games in December before starting point guard Isaiah Wright missed four games in January and then starting shooting guard Olin Carter III missed five straight games spanning into February. It was until February 7th that this team was completely healthy again for the first time since November. Yet it took some time for this group to rekindle their chemistry and gel. They closed out the regular season with a bad 87-73 loss at BYU. Head coach Sam Scholl used that loss to re-focus his team by establishing their identity on the defensive end of the court. In their three games in the WCC tournament, San Diego has allowed 47, 45, and 57 points for a stingy 49.7 PPG average. BYU entered that rematch on Saturday as the second-highest scoring team in the conference by averaging 79.7 PPG. They have held each of their three tournament opponents to no better than 33.3% shooting. The Toreros should build off their momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a victory by at least 20 points. And while San Diego has played three straight Unders, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after playing at least three straight Unders. Furthermore, the Toreros have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral court. Saint Mary’s (20-11) had failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. This is a very well-coached team by Randy Bennett — but talent is an issue for this year’s team after losing three starters and five of their last top seven scorers from last season. Much of the Gaels success has been on their home court where they continue to shoot lights out in those familiar surroundings. But Saint Mary’s makes only 32.7% of their 3-pointers when playing away from home which is a far cry from their 37.9% shooting mark behind the arc overall. This team has also gotten away from sharing the basketball to find better shots. Just two years ago, the Gaels’ ranked 8th in the nation by assisting on 63.1% of their made field goals. However, this year Saint Mary’s are assisting on just 39.2 % of their field goals which is the second-lowest number in the nation. The Gaels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: San Diego has lost eleven straight meetings with Saint Mary’s after losing at home to them on February 23rd by a 66-46 score. The Toreros have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 41 games when avenging a double-digit loss at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss by at least 20 points on their home court. Lastly, San Diego has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games when playing with double-revenge. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Game of the Year with the San Diego Toreros (887) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (888). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-11-19 |
Monmouth +5 v. Iona |
Top |
60-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Monmouth Hawks (895) plus the points versus the Iona Gaels (896). Monmouth (14-20) has won four straight games to reach the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament championship game after their 73-59 win over Canisius as a 1-point favorite yesterday. Iona (16-15) joined them in the finals of this event with their 73-57 win against Siena as a 2-point favorite. This is a true neutral court for both teams with this tournament hosted by Siena in Albany.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach King Rice has had some good teams during his tenure with Monmouth but he has yet to lead his team to the NCAA Tournament. It would be a great accomplishment for this team predicted to finish in the middle of the pack to achieve what those more heralded teams in the past could not accomplish. This team succeeds because they play very good defense — they rank second in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also lead the MAAC by limiting their opponents to just a 45.8% shooting percentage inside the arc. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Monmouth has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win over a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning at least two straight games against MAAC rivals. Additionally, the Hawks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Rice’s team also does things to create extra possessions in case their shots are not falling. Monmouth forces turnovers in 21.3% of their opponent’s possessions which is 39th best in the country — and that number rose to 22.2% in conference play. The Hawks also crash the offensive glass as they pull down 29.6% of their missed shots which is third best in the conference. Monmouth has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. The Hawks have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court with the total set in the 135 to 139.5 point range. Iona shot 49.1% from the field yesterday against the Saints which was the best shooting mark in their last three games — and they also held Siena to just 37.3% shooting from the field which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. The Saints may be due for a letdown after covering the point spread in two of their last three games — they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three contests. Siena has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games. Iona will be looking to win their fourth straight MAAC tournament championship. However, as usual for head coach Tim Cluess’ teams at Iona, this team is vulnerable on the defensive end of the court where they ranked 7th in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season. The Gaels have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams with a losing record. Iona has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Iona will be looking to avenge an 83-81 upset loss at Monmouth back on January 20th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite with this including them failing to cover the point spread in five of these last seven situations. Monmouth has little pressure on them in this championship game as they get to revel in the role as the spoiler. Their strong defensive play should keep this game close. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Monmouth Hawks (895) plus the points versus the Iona Gaels (896). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-10-19 |
South Dakota v. IUPU Ft Wayne +1.5 |
Top |
70-96 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Purdue-Fort Wayne Mastodons (868) plus the point(s) versus the South Dakota Coyotes (867). Purdue-Fort Wayne (17-14) limps into the Summit League tournament having lost four in a row after their 69-66 upset loss to North Dakota State last Saturday as a 4-point favorite. South Dakota (13-16) has won four of their last five games after their 78-63 win over North Dakota last Saturday as a 6-point favorite. These two teams meeting in the final Quarterfinals contest in the Summit League tournament.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MASTODONS PLUS THE POINT(S): Purdue-Fort Wayne made only 40.3% of their shots in their loss to the Fighting Hawks which was the worst shooting effort in their last ten games. Despite the losing streak, the Mastodons remain one of the best teams in the conference — and they were one of just two teams to defeat the regular season champions in South Dakota State (who were upset in the Quarterfinals yesterday). Purdue-Fort Wayne finished third in the regular season in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while also finishing fourth in the Summit in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The team is led by jack-of-all-trades 6’5 senior John Konchar who is scoring 19.7 PPG while pulling down 8.5 RPG and dishing out 5.3 Assists-Per-Game. The Mastodons launch tons of 3s — their 305 made 3-pointers is the second most in the nation. After suffering two straight upset losses to end the regular season, this team should play very well with the opportunity to clear the slate in this tournament. Purdue-Fort Wayne has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing three straight games in conference play. The Mastodons have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a loss by 3 points or less against a conference rival. Furthermore, Purdue-Fort Wayne has allowed 42 and 44 points in the first half of their last two games — but they ave then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 40 points in the first half in two straight games. South Dakota may have trouble regaining the momentum they enjoyed to close out the regular season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when playing their first game in over a week. The Coyotes are a good defensive team that ranks third in the Summit League in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But South Dakota ranks only sixth in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency as they struggled to replace the productivity of Chris Mooney who was their Mr. Everything for the basketball program for years. The Coyotes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games played on a neutral court as a favorite of no more than 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: South Dakota is the host team for this tournament but this is not a true home game for them. The tournament is being played in the Sanford Premier Center rather than their campus home court at the Coyote Sports Center. The Coyotes do have the geographical advantage — and they have played one game this season already in the Premier Center — but that is not enough for me to assign a significant home advantage for this team. South Dakota will be looking to avenge a 102-71 loss to Purdue-Fort Wayne back on January 30th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. 25* CBB Summit League Game of the Year with the Purdue-Fort Wayne Mastodons (868) plus the point(s) versus the South Dakota Coyotes (867). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-09-19 |
Oregon v. Washington UNDER 126 |
Top |
55-47 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (713) and the Washington Cougars (714). THE SITUATION: Oregon (18-12) has won three straight games with their 72-61 win at Washington State last Wednesday as a 6.5-point favorite. Washington (24-6) has won their last two games after they defeated Oregon State on Wednesday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ducks have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Oregon has played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total after winning their last two games. Now this team stays on the road where they are scoring only 64.0 PPG on low 40.9% shooting. But the Ducks hold their home hosts to just a 42.9% shooting mark from the field. Head coach Dana Altman’s team has the second best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Pac-12 — and they have held their last vet opponents to just 41.6% shooting. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have also played 11 of their last 15 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, Oregon has played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Washington has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 26 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Huskies have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They shot 54% from the field against the Beavers which was the best shooting margin in their last ten games. Washington is only making 44.9% of their shots over their last five games despite that strong shooting effort on Wednesday. The Huskies stay at home where hold their guests to just 59.7 PPG on low 38.8% shooting from the field. Washington has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Huskies have the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Pac-12.
FINAL TAKE: Washington won the first meeting between these two teams back on January 24th when they pulled off a 61-56 upset win in Eugene as a 2.5-point underdog. That game finished below the 132 point Total which made it 6 straight Unders between these two teams. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (713) and the Washington Cougars (714). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-09-19 |
Michigan +4 v. Michigan State |
Top |
63-75 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (649) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (650). THE SITUATION: Michigan (26-4) has won their last two games after losing at home to the Spartans by a 77-70 score back on February 24th despite being a 4.5-point favorite in that game. The Wolverines come off an impressive 69-62 win at Maryland as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Michigan State (24-6) has won six of their last seven games after their 91-76 win over Nebraska as a 13.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The winner of this game clinches at least a share of the Big Ten regular-season title.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: The loss at home to the Spartans was a good wake-up call for this Michigan team that has not played as well on the offensive end of the court as they were earlier in the season when they defeated Villanova and North Carolina. Too often, the Wolverines have been comfortable resorting to playing “hero ball on offense” rather than execute head coach John Beilein’s outstanding schemes. In this regard, the injury to Charles Matthews may have been a small blessing in disguise as it helped coax the group that lost in the NCAA Championship Game last season to get back to ball movement to find open shooters. Admittedly, Michigan is much better with a healthy Matthews on the court — but inserting Isaiah Livers into the starting lineup again has helped to stabilize this team because he is a secondary scorer who is content to be doing the little extra things to help the team. Livers was a consistent starter last year. At times this season, the Wolverines have been indecisive regarding who should take the initiative on offense since they have a handful of solid but unspectacular creators. This team is much better when faithfully executing Beilein’s offensive game plan. Additionally, the Spartans changed their ball-screen strategy in the first meeting between these two teams which effectively stymied the Michigan routine — yet Beilein has had almost a full week to practice the adjustments he wants his team to make in this rematch. The other problem the Wolverines had in the first meeting between these two teams was that Michigan State was on-fire with their shooting. They were shooting at a torrid pace for the first ten minutes of this game and the 50% shooting clip that they ended the game with was the second highest shooting percentage a team has enjoyed against the Wolverines all season. Assistant head coach (and “defensive coordinator) Luke Yaklich should have a few important adjustments up his sleeve for this rematch. Michigan has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a win on the road. The Wolverines stay on the road where their defensive play which ranks second best in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency keeps their games close. Michigan has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Wolverines have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 130s. Furthermore, Michigan has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after fifteen games into the season against teams with a winning percentage over 80%. Michigan State has been riddled with injuries this season. They are already down to original starters with Nick Ward and Joshua Langford on the shelf. Now their floor general, Cassius Winston, has reports of tendinitis in his knee and current starter Kyle Ahrens is dealing with a back injury. While both players will take the court tonight, they are not at 100%. As it is, Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after winning at least 15 of their last 20 games. Additionally, the Spartans have not met point spread expectations once the month of March hits as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in March. And while Michigan is outscoring their opponents by +12.4 PPG, Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after fifteen games into the season against teams that are outscoring their opponents by at least +12.0 PPG. Furthermore, while the Wolverines average only 16 free throw attempts per game, the Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after fifteen games into the season against opponents who do not attempt more than 18 free throws per game.
FINAL TAKE: Xavier Simpson owned Winston in the last two meetings between these two teams last season — with their last encounter being in the Big Ten tournament. Winston was particularly motivated to avenge those losses in the first meeting between these two teams. Now it is Simpson who has something to prove — and he leads a Wolverines team that has covered the point spread in 9 straight games when avenging a same-season loss. Lastly, Michigan has covered 4 of their last 5 trips to East Lansing to face the Spartans. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (649) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (650). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-09-19 |
Bradley +6 v. Loyola-Chicago |
Top |
53-51 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 3:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Bradley Braves (717) plus the points versus the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (718). THE SITUATION: Bradley (18-14) reached the Semifinals of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament yesterday with their 61-58 upset win over Missouri State yesterday getting 2.5-points. Loyola-Chicago (20-12) defeated Valparaiso by a 67-54 score yesterday as a 7.5-point favorite. “Arch Madness” takes place on a neutral court in St. Louis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES PLUS THE POINTS: Bradley started MVC play losing five straight games before rallying to win 10 of their last thirteen contests. Their victory yesterday was impressive because that Tigers team had swept their two games against Loyola-Chicago in the regular season. The Braves have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games after a win by 3 points or less. Bradley held Missouri State to just 5 offensive rebounds yesterday — and they have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 5 offensive rebounds in their last game. The Braves are the second-best 3-point shooting team in the MVC as they are making 39.1% of their shots from behind the arc. This is a major area of weakness for the Ramblers as they are last in the conference by allowing their opponents to nail 40.3% of their 3-point shots. Their 3-point shooting should keep this upstart Bradley team competitive in this game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Braves have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games played on a neutral court. And in their last 25 games with the Total set no higher than 125, Bradley has covered the point spread in 16 of these contests. Loyola-Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least four of their last five games. The Ramblers returned three starters from last year’s Final Four team. But this group is not nearly as good on the defensive end of the court as they rank a lowly 8th in the MVC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This team is very reliant on making 3s as they lead the conference by making 39.6% of their shots from downtown — but this Braves team defends the perimeter quite well as their opponents only make 31.0% of their 3-point shots which is the best mark in the Missouri Valley. Loyola-Chicago is the familiar name to the betting public that has pushed this line up a bit higher than what the computer generations predict the score to be (for what that is worth …). The Ramblers have been favored in each of their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after being favored in at least their last two games. These last two games have finished Over the Total as well — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing at least two straight Overs. This Total is set in the 119.5 range today — and Loyola-Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games with the Total set no higher than 119.5. And the Ramblers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court when favored in the 3.5 to 6 point range.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played just last Saturday where Loyola-Chicago won by an 81-68 score on their home court. But Bradley won the first meeting between these two teams so they will be confident they can pull the upset. This is a feisty Braves team that should keep this game very close. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Underdog of the Year with the Bradley Braves (717) plus the points versus the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (718). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-08-19 |
Yale +1 v. Pennsylvania |
Top |
66-77 |
Loss |
-109 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Yale Bulldogs (873) plus (or minus) the points versus the Pennsylvania Quakers (874). Yale (19-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 83-75 upset loss to Columbia last Saturday as a 12.5-point favorite. Penn (17-11) has won two of their last three games with their 65-51 win at Dartmouth as a 2-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: Yale made only 37.9% of their shots against Columbia which was the worst shooting mark in their last nine games. The Bulldogs are still making 52.0% of their shots in their last five games — and they are one of the best shooting teams in the nation as they rank 14th in the country in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Yale has scored at least 75 points in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 75 points in five straight contests. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games when playing just their second game in seven days. Now after playing their last four games at home, Yale goes back on the road where they are 9-4 this season while making 48% of their shots and holding their opponents to just a 41.3% field goal percentage. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Furthermore, Yale has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and this includes them covering the point spread in six of their last eight games on the road when listed from +3 points to -3 points. Penn has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. And while the Quakers have played three straight games Under the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after playing at least three straight Unders. Now Penn returns home where they are 8-4 this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on their home court. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games again teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. This team returned four starters from last year’s group that made the NCAA Tournament. Head coach Steve Donahue loves for his team to launch 3s: they lead the Ivy League by attempting 44.7% of their shots from downtown. But this year’s team is making only 32.7% of their 3-point shots which is 7th in the conference — and this Yale team does a great job of defending the perimeter as their opponents are making only 31.8% of their shots from behind the arc. The Quakers are making only 41.9% of their shots over their last five games — they must shoot better than that to keep up with this great shooting Bulldogs team.
FINAL TAKE: Penn will be looking to avenge a 78-65 loss at Yale back on February 9th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 opportunities to avenge a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* CBB Ivy League Game of the Year with the Yale Bulldogs (873) plus (or minus) the points versus the Pennsylvania Quakers (874). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-07-19 |
NJIT v. Lipscomb -11.5 |
Top |
55-78 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Lipscomb Bisons (307140) minus the points versus the New Jersey Institute of Technology Highlanders (307139). THE SITUATION: Lipscomb (24-6) reached the Semifinals of the Atlantic Sun tournament on Monday with their 86-71 win at home over Kennesaw State as a 26.5-point favorite. NJIT (21-11) pulled the upset in the Quarterfinals of the Atlantic Sun tournament on Monday when they defeated the Florida Gulf Coast on the road by an 83-78 score as a 3.5-point underdog. Higher seeds (determined by NET rankings) earn hosting rights in this event so this game will be played on Lipscomb’s home court in Nashville.
REASONS TO TAKE LIPSCOMB MINUS THE POINTS: I expect a big letdown for the Highlanders in this showdown with the best team in the conference. NJIT nailed 10 of their 17 shots (53.6%) of their shots from behind the arc to shock the Gulf Coast on Monday — but they are not likely to replicate those results tonight. The Highlanders are making only 34.0% of their 3-pointers in conference play this season which is only 6th best. And they are facing a stingy Bison perimeter defense that leads the Atlantic Sun by limiting their opponents to just a 30.7% shooting mark from behind the arc. NJIT will want to slow down the pace in this game and hope they make enough 3s to make Lipscomb start feeling nervous that their NCAA Tournament bubble will burst. But that leaves little margin for error for a team being asked to go on the road to pull a second straight upset. The Highlanders only rank 6th in the Atlantic Sun in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are last in the conference in offensive rebounding rates as they sacrifice second-chance opportunities to get back on defense where they play solid but spectacular half-court defense. They rank 6th in the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.3%. They do commit to protecting their defensive glass as their conference opponents are only pulling down 24.0% of their missed shots which is second best in the conference — but this comes at the expense of transition scoring opportunities. NJIT’s best win on the road was at Duquesne that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks as the 165th best team in the nation. For comparison's sake, Pomeroy ranks this Lipscomb team as the 50th best team in the country. The Highlanders lost twice to the Bison this season — but perhaps their best effort away from home all season was their 81-77 loss at Lipscomb back on February 25th. Lipscomb returns their top six players from last year’s team that won the Atlantic Sun tournament to then play North Carolina in the Big Dance. This year’s Bison are tops in the Atlantic Sun in both Adjusted Offensive and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are 13-2 on their home court — and they do a number of things that should help them cover a double-digit point spread. They lead the Atlantic Sun by hitting 40.7% of their 3-point shots which helps to boost their league-leading 55.7% effective field goal percentage which is helped by Rob Marberry who is making 61.2% of his shots inside the arc. But the Bison also do many things to create additional scoring chances if their shots are not falling. They are third in the conference by rebounding 28.9% of their missed shots. They are second in the Atlantic Sun by forcing turnovers in 20.1% of their possessions — and they are facing a Highlanders team that turns it over 18.2% of their conference possessions. And Lipscomb places at a blistering pace that is 13th fastest in the nation. Finally, the intangible for this third encounter is the points that will likely be generated at the free throw line. The Bison lead the conference with a 38.4% Free Throw Attempt to Field Goal Attempt ratio — and the Highlanders are 8th in the league with an opponent’s FTA: FGA ratio of 31.6%. Yet, somehow, NJIT’s opponents have been hexed as they have made only 67.0% of their free throw attempts against them this season (32nd lowest in the nation) — and the New Jersey voodoo has been even better in conference play with Atlantic Sun opponents making only 63.8% of their free throw attempts! Lipscomb made only 11 of their 17 (64.7%) of their free throws against them in their last meeting which is far below their 75.2% mark for the season at the charity stripe which is the 32nd best mark in the nation. Remarkably, the Bison’s opponents make the most of their free throw opportunities as they are making 75.3% of their free throws which is the ninth highest mark in the nation. These are underlying numbers that are screaming for regression — and even if it accounts for only 3 or 4 points, that could make the difference to cover this double-digit number. Then again, those points may very well be gravy when considering that NJIT needed to nail 7 of their 17 (41.2%) 3-pointers while converting 16 of 20 free throw attempts on the road against Lipscomb (a +5 point advantage) to still lose by 4 points.
FINAL TAKE: The close game two weeks ago at home against the Highlanders should ensure that Lipscomb is very focused for this game. While I worry that the Bison will be facing the pressure of being on the NCAA bubble if they do not earn the automatic bid by winning this tournament, I think that plays a larger role in a potential championship game on Sunday against Liberty. Lipscomb does enough things to generate momentum and scoring opportunities to eventually blowout this overachieving NJIT team. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Game of the Year with the Lipscomb Bisons (307140) minus the points versus the New Jersey Institute of Technology Highlanders (307139). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-19 |
Louisiana Tech v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 134 |
Top |
72-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (833) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (834). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (18-12) has lost two straight upset losses in a row after their 83-76 loss at Florida International as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Florida Atlantic (17-12) has won three of their last four games after their 60-54 upset win at North Texas as a 7.5-point underdog last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 21-10-2 in the Bulldogs’ last 33 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total off a road loss to a conference rival. Louisiana Tech has the third-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in Conference USA — but they also have just the 9th best offense in terms of that metric. They have held their last five opponents to just a 42.6% shooting percentage. Now they go on the road where they are scoring only 69.0 PPG while making just 41.6% of their shots from the field. The Under is a decisive 20-5-1 in their last 26 games on the road — and they have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em. Additionally, the Bulldogs have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the number in the 130s. Florida Atlantic has seen the Under go 21-9-1 in their last 31 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Owls have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after an upset victory. This will be FAU’s second game in their last eight days — and they have then played 9 straight games Under the Total when playing just for the second time in eight days. The Owls sport the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in Conference USA. They have held their last five opponents to just a 36.6% shooting percentage. But FAU struggles to score baskets as they rank 12th in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making only 40.1% of their shots over their last five games. The Owls return home where they hold their opponents to only 63.7 PPG on low 40.4% shooting. Yet FAU only makes 42.3% of their shots at home. They have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total — and the Under is also 16-5-1 in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Owls have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the number in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech is looking to avenge a 69-61 loss hosting FAU back on January 31st when they were 4.5-point home favorites in that game. The Bulldogs have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and this includes them playing nine of these last eleven situations Under the Total. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (833) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (834). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-19 |
Youngstown State +8.5 v. Oakland |
Top |
84-88 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Youngstown State Penguins (843) plus the points versus the Oakland Grizzlies (844). Youngstown State (12-19) has lost three straight games after their 89-80 loss in overtime at home to Cleveland State last Saturday as a 5.5-point favorite. Oakland (16-16) has won four straight games after their 74-63 win over IUPUI on Saturday as a 3-point favorite. The Grizzlies are the third seed in the Horizon League tournament with the higher seed earning the right to host the Quarterfinal contests in this event — so this game is being played on the Oakland campus (where this handicapper happened to have been born).
REASONS TO TAKE THE PENGUINS PLUS THE POINTS: Youngstown State had won six straight games to put themselves in position to qualify as one of the top eight teams to make the conference tournament. They then lost on the road to the top two teams in the Horizon League at Northern Kentucky and Wright State before returning home to lose that game in overtime to the Vikings. Look for second-year head coach Jarrod Calhoun to have his team ready to be very competitive in this tournament game. The Penguins have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 80 points in a loss to a conference opponent. Calhoun was a longtime assistant to Bob Huggins who has deployed a similar style with this program. While the full-court press was generating its share of turnovers, it was leaving the Penguins very vulnerable in their half-court defense. Calhoun eventually scrapped the reliance on the press to help his half-court defense which helped trigger their winning streak. He has also overseen the continued development of his young team dominated by sophomores and a rising freshman star in Darius Quisenberry who is the team’s leading scorer. Like Huggins’ teams at West Virginia, this team still does many of things that the Mountaineers deploy which makes them dangerous in tournament situations. First, Youngstown State crashes the glass: they rank 30th in the nation by pulling down 34.0% of their missed shots — and this is a vulnerability for the Grizzlies who rank 336th in the nation by allowing their opponent to pull down 33.6% of their missed shots. The Penguins also launch tons of 3s as they rank 50th in the nation with 43.9% of their shots from the field being from behind the arc. Oakland can be burned by outside shooting as they allowed their opponents to make 35.2% of their 3-pointers which is 219th in the nation. Maximizing second-chance opportunities, as well as the extra point from 3-point attempts, has helped the Penguins be overachievers on the road. Youngstown State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Penguins usually match-up well against high-scoring teams. The Grizzlies average 77.6 PPG on 47.1% shooting from the field. Youngstown State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams who make at least 45% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after fifteen games into the season against teams that score at 77 PPG. Head coach Greg Kampe has also done a nice job of coaching this Grizzlies team that lost 90% of their scoring from a very talented team that was upset in the Semifinals of the Horizon League tournament by a 44-43 score to Cleveland State. Frankly, Kampe’s offensive schemes too often devolve into 1-on-1 hero ball which can become a dangerous proposition during the pressure of tournament basketball. As it is, Oakland has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40%. The Grizzlies have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games after fifteen games into the season against teams with a losing record. Youngstown State does allow their opponents to make 46.4% of their shots — but Oakland has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after fifteen games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of at least 45%. The Penguins average 64 shot attempts per game helped by all those second-chance opportunities — and the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games against teams who average at least 62 shots per game.
FINAL TAKE: Oakland is an unreliable favorite as they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 home games when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. Youngstown State lost at home by just 2 points in the first meeting between these two teams in late December before pulling the upset on Oakland’s home court on January 31st by a 75-74 score. With Oakland facing the pressure to keep up their winning streak against what will be a confidence Penguins team that can stay competitive in this game even if they are not red-hot from the field, expect a third close game between these two teams. 25* CBB Horizon League Tournament Underdog of the Year with the Youngstown State Penguins (843) plus the points versus the Oakland Grizzlies (844). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-19 |
Kentucky v. Ole Miss UNDER 139 |
Top |
80-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (639) and the Mississippi Rebels (640). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (24-5) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with a 71-52 loss at Tennessee as a 3-point underdog. Mississippi (19-10) has lost their last two games after their 74-73 loss at Arkansas as a 2-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kentucky has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Wildcats have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning at least fifteen of their last twenty games. Kentucky is without their floor general in senior Reid Travis who is dealing with a knee injury. The Wildcats made only 31.8% of their shots against the Volunteers without Travis running the offense. Head coach John Calipari will want his team to play better on defense tonight. While the 43.8% field goal percentage that the Volunteers achieved was not a bad effort, it was still the worst defensive performance for the Wildcats in their last twelve contests. Kentucky has held their last five opponents to just a 38.5% field goal percentage. The Wildcats stay on the road where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Additionally, Kentucky has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Ole Miss has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Rebels made 53.7% of their shots in that narrow loss to the Razorbacks which was the best shooting mark for them in their last nineteen games. Ole Miss is only making 43.9% of their shots over their last five contests. They have also played four straight games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games Under the Total. They return home where they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total at home against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Rebels have played 8 of their last home games Under the Total as a pick ‘em or underdog of no more than 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: With Kentucky without Travis, expect this to be a lower-scoring contest. 25* CBB Super Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (639) and the Mississippi Rebels (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-19 |
Pittsburgh v. Miami-FL UNDER 136 |
Top |
63-76 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Panthers (627) and the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (628). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (12-17) has lost twelve games in a row with their 73-49 loss at Virginia on Saturday as an 18-point underdog. Miami (FL) (12-16) has lost their last two games after their 87-57 loss at Duke as a 15-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers have played 36 of their last 51 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Pittsburgh has also played 13 of the last 17 games Under the Total after failing to score at least 55 points in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to reach at least 50 points in their last contest. The Panthers are making only 34.2% of their shots over their last five games — and they are 13th in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. More importantly, when playing on the road, head coach Jeff Capel needs to his team to play better on the defensive end of the court after allowing the Cavaliers to make 58.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. Pitt has played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. The Panthers score only 65.5 PPG away from home while making only 38.9% of their shots. Furthermore, the Panthers have played a decisive 38 of their last 55 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 30 of their last 42 games Under the Total as an underdog. Miami has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss on the road. Furthermore, the Hurricanes have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after suffering at least two straight losses to conference opponents. Miami also comes off a disappointing defensive effort as they allowed the Blue Devils to make 57.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Hurricanes have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. This has been a disappointing season for head coach Jim Larranaga with injuries and the declaration of their best player, Dewan Hernandez, being declared ineligible after accepting payments from an agent. Hernandez never took the court this season and has already declared that he will make himself eligible for the NBA draft in June. Without him anchoring the offense, this team cannot score. Miami is 10th in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are making only 38.0% of their shots over their last five games. The Hurricanes return home where they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight encounters Under the Total. With both these programs struggling to score baskets this season while coming off disappointing efforts on defense, expect another lower-scoring game. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Panthers (627) and the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-04-19 |
Weber State -3.5 v. Idaho State |
Top |
74-78 |
Loss |
-106 |
3 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Weber State Wildcats (873) minus the points versus the Idaho State Bengals (874). THE SITUATION: Weber State (16-12) has lost their last two games after their 85-61 loss at Northern Colorado last Thursday as a 4.5-point underdog. Idaho State (9-17) has lost five straight games with their 71-62 loss at Northern Colorado as a 13-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Weber State should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by at least 20 points — and they are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Wildcats have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. And while this will be Weber State’s third straight game on the road, Weber State has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after losing their last two games on the road. The Wildcats are a team that returned four starters from last year’s team that finished 13-5 in conference play. This year’s team is a disappointing 10-7 in conference play this year — but three of those losses were by 3 points or less with a fourth loss being in overtime. Weber State is shooting 49.7% from the field in Big Sky play while holding their opponents to just a 42.9% shooting mark in conference play. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record on their home court. Idaho State is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread victory. The Bengals struggle on the defensive end of the court. Idaho State is last in the Big Sky by allowing their opponents to make 38.9% of their shots from behind the arc. The Bengals’ last five opponents have made 48.7% of their shots. Idaho State returns home where they are just 4-6 this season. The Bengals are just 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on their home court — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, Idaho State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games as an underdog getting no more than 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Bengals rank 350th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. While it has been a disappointing regular season for the Wildcats, this Weber State team remains a veteran group that will be looking to make a run in the Big Sky conference tournament next week. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Game of the Year with the Weber State Wildcats (873) minus the points versus the Idaho State Bengals (874). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-02-19 |
Bradley v. Loyola-Chicago -8 |
Top |
68-81 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (614) minus the points versus the Bradley Braves (613). THE SITUATION: Loyola-Chicago (18-12) has won two of their last three games with their 56-55 win at Northern Iowa on Wednesday as a 1.5-point favorite. Bradley (17-13) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 67-42 blowout win over Valparaiso on Wednesday as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMBLERS MINUS THE POINTS: Loyola-Chicago has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by 6 points or less. The Ramblers have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. Furthermore, Loyola-Chicago has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after winning two of their last three games. And while the Ramblers have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. Now this team returns home where they are 12-4 this season with an average winning margin of +13.0 PPG. Loyola-Chicago makes 52.9% of their shots when playing at home — and they limit their visitors to just 58.7 PPG on low 42.3% shooting from the field. The Ramblers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 120 to 129.5 point range. Loyola-Chicago has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when favored in the 6.5 to 9 point range. Bradley held Valparaiso to just a 26.8% shooting percentage in their win on Wednesday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after playing a game with an opponent’s field goal percentage no higher than 28%. The Braves have held their last four opponents to 38.6% or less shooting from the field — yet they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing their last four opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field. Bradley is also just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. The Braves will be challenged by this Ramblers team that leads the Missouri Valley Conference in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and effective field goal percentage. Bradley goes back on the road where they are 7-7 this season while being outscored by their home hosts. They make only 43% of their shots away from home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 44 of their last 65 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points.
FINAL TAKE: Loyola-Chicago will be motivated to avenge a 61-54 upset loss at Bradley as a 3-point favorite back on February 13th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they failed to score 60 points. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year with the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (614) minus the points versus the Bradley Braves (613). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-01-19 |
Siena v. Canisius UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
62-68 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (863) and the Canisius Golden Griffins (864). Siena (15-14) has won two straight games with their 67-55 win over Marist last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Canisius (13-16) has lost two straight contests after their 86-84 loss to Niagara as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have seen the Under go 19-6-2 in their last 27 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 straight games Under the Total after a win over a Metro Athletic Association team. Siena has also played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Saints has played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. Additionally, while Siena has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their previous two contests. Now after playing their last four games at home, the Saints goes back on the road for the first time since February 10th. The Under is 5-1-1 in Siena’s last 7 road games after playing at least their last three games at home. They are making just 42.7% of their shots when playing away from home — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total on the road. The Saints have also played 4 straight games against teams with a losing record on their home court — and the Under is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games against teams with a losing record. Siena has the top Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the MAAC — and they have held their last five opponents to just a 42.6% field goal percentage. The Saints have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s. Canisius has played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130 to 134.5 point range. The Golden Griffins have seen the Under go 15-7-1 in their last 23 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 17-8-2 in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Canisius has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Now after losing three of their last four games, the Golden Griffins have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Canisius made 52.5% of their shots against the Purple Eagles on Wednesday after making 51.7% of their shots at Iona in their previous game after shooting a miserable 29.8% from the field three games ago at Monmouth. The Golden Griffins have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after shooting at least 50% from the field in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Siena is looking to avenge a 70-66 loss to Canisius back on January 5th — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (863) and the Canisius Golden Griffins (864). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-28-19 |
Arizona State v. Oregon -1.5 |
Top |
51-79 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (660) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (659). THE SITUATION: Oregon (15-12) has lost three straight games with their 90-83 loss at UCLA as a 1.5-point underdog last Saturday. Arizona State (19-8) has won three straight contests with their 69-59 win over California last Sunday as a 17-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Oregon raced out to a 44-28 halftime lead before letting the Bruins rally to seize the win in the second-half. The Ducks have covered the point spread in a decisive 55 of their last 85 games after enjoying a lead of at least 15 points in their last game. Oregon has been hit hard by injuries this season with the biggest being the loss of big man and likely NBA first-round pick this summer in Bol Bol whose foot injury kept him out of conference play. The Ducks have only covered the point spread once in their last six games after failing to cover the point spread in their last three games. But they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Oregon needs to play better on the defensive end of the court after seeing UCLA make 50.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. USC also made 50% of their shots in their previous game — and the Ducks have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Now after playing their last three games on the road, returning home to Eugene will be a big help where they are 11-4 this season with an average winning margin of +12.1 PPG. Oregon has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games after playing their last three games at home. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 135 to 139.5 point range. They should play better defense tonight as they hold their visitors to just 63.3 PPG on low 40.8% shooting from the field. The Ducks also make a strong 48.1% of their shots on their home court. Oregon has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. And despite it being a down year for head coach Dana Altman, the Ducks have still covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games after fifteen games into the season against teams with a winning record. With the injuries his team has endured, Altman has had his team pressure the basketball to create more scoring opportunities — they are second in the Pac-12 by forcing turnovers in 21.6% of their opponent’s possessions. This is an area of weakness for the Sun Devils as they turn the ball over in 19.3% of their conference possessions which ranks seventh in the Pac-12. Arizona State is a young team that has been wildly inconsistent this season. They have nice wins against Kansas, Mississippi State, and Washington — but they also have ugly losses to Utah, Washington State, and Princeton. That Cal team they played on Sunday may be the worst team playing in a major conference — yet they trailed by 6 points at halftime. The Sun Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after a victory over a conference rival. And while Arizona State has won five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Now after playing their last two games at home — as well as five of their last seven — they go back on the road where they are just 6-5 this season. This team can struggle to score baskets as they are making only 42.2% of their shots on the road. They are 5-12-2 ATS in their last 19 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Sun Devils have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Oregon will be motivated to avenge a 78-64 loss to Arizona State back on January 19th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. The Sun Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month with the Oregon Ducks (660) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (659). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-19 |
Ohio v. Kent State -7 |
Top |
73-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Kent State Golden Flashes (622) minus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (621). THE SITUATION: Kent State (19-8) has lost two straight games after their 80-57 loss at Buffalo on Friday as a 15-point underdog. Ohio (12-14) saw their six-game losing streak snapped on Friday with their 92-87 upset win over Bowling Green where they were 4.5-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN FLASHES MINUS THE POINTS: Kent State should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to a conference rival. The Golden Flashes have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss where they allowed at least 80 points. And while Kent State has failed to cover the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three contests. This is a team that endured a disappointing 17-17 season last year but returned a star player in senior Jaylin Walker who leads a talented backcourt. Their 8-6 record in conference play leaves a little to be desired — but after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they are 12-3 with an average winning margin of +8.0 PPG. The Golden Flashes need to share the ball more. After generating 16 team assists in their 71-58 win at home over Eastern Michigan, they have produced only 8 and 7 assists respectively in their last two games. But Kent State has then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after generating no more than 9 assists in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after failing to top 9 assists in two straight games. They should be able to generate extra scoring chances against this Bobcats team. The Golden Flashes pull down 32.1% of their missed shots (3rd in the MAC) — and Ohio ranks 8th in the conference by allowing their opponents to rebound 29.5% of their shots. Kent State also ranks 3rd in the Mid-American Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.1% of their possessions — and the Bobcats rank 8th in the conference by turning the ball over in 19.0% of their possessions. Ohio is moving in the wrong direction under fifth-year head coach, Saul Phillips, who fell to a 14-17 record last year after two straight 20-win seasons. This team is just 4-10 in conference play this season. They are last in the MAC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while ranking second-to-last in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are not likely to sustain their momentum from Friday as they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. Additionally, while the Bobcats had failed to cover the point spread in their previous six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after only covering the point spread once in their last five games. Ohio has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 2-10 with an average losing margin of -16.0 PPG. They are scoring only 62.0 PPG on the road with just a 39.6% feel goal percentage — and they are allowing their home hosts to make 47.6% of their shots. The Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. And with the Total set in the mid-140s for this game, Ohio has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games with the Total in the 140s.
FINAL TAKE: Ohio will be looking to avenge a 65-52 upset loss as a 4-point favorite at home to the Golden Flashes back on January 15th, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games when looking to avenge a double-digit loss at home. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Game of the Year with the Kent State Golden Flashes (622) minus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (621). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-19 |
Michigan State v. Michigan UNDER 134 |
Top |
77-70 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (833) and the Michigan Wolverines (834). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (22-5) has won four straight games with their 71-60 win over Rutgers on Wednesday as a 15.5-point favorite. Michigan (24-3) has won four of their last five games with their 69-60 win at Minnesota on Thursday as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spartans have seen the Under go 22-6-1 in their last 29 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on their home court. Furthermore, Michigan State has played 9 straight games Under the Total after winning two straight games against fellow Big Ten opponents. This is a team hit hard by two big injuries. Joshua Langford is out the season with an ankle injury while Nick Ward is out indefinitely with a hand injury. That leaves much of the offensive burden on guard Cassius Winston — and he was absolutely owned last year by the Wolverines’ elite defender Xavier Simpson. In their two upset losses to Michigan last season, Winston made only 6 of his 17 shots from the floor while going 1 for 6 from behind the arc while averaging just 11.0 PPG with 3.5 assists. Scoring is going to be hard to come by for Sparty in this game as they are making only 44.8% of their shots over their last five games dealing with these injuries — they will have to rely on their strong defensive play to stay competitive in this game. Michigan State goes on the road where they do hold their home hosts to just a 38.8% field goal percentage. The Spartans have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Under is also 13-3-1 in Michigan State’s last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Under is also 18-7-1 in Michigan’s last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Wolverines have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This is Michigan’s just second game since last Saturday — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing just their second game in eight days. The Wolverines return home where they are 16-0 this season while holding their visitors to just a 39.7% field goal percentage. Michigan has played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. This Wolverines team can suffer through cold stretches on offense. While Simpson is one of the best defensive players in the nation, he is not a threat from his outside shooting which allows opposing defenses to play off him and help on other players. John Beilein offenses emphasize 3-point shooting but they are making only 33.2% of their 3-pointers in Big Ten play (7th in the conference).
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams play outstanding defense: the Spartans rank 8th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while the Wolverines rank 2nd in the nation in that metric. These teams do not like each other — and this is a very heated rivalry after Michigan upset them twice last season. This will slow and physical with the first team to reach 60 points the likely winner. 25* CBB Sunday CBS-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (833) and the Michigan Wolverines (834). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-19 |
Louisiana-Monroe v. Texas-Arlington UNDER 138.5 |
Top |
86-91 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UL-Monroe Warhawks (659) and the UT-Arlington Mavericks (660). THE SITUATION: UL-Monroe (14-11) has won three of their last four games with their 63-60 win at Texas State on Thursday as a 5-point favorite. UT-Arlington (12-15) has lost three straight games after suffering their second straight upset loss on Thursday when they lost at home to UL-Lafayette by a 76-64 score as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Mavericks on Thursday in a situation I really liked — so that result was a big disappointment. But in researching that game, it afforded me the opportunity to dig deep into what Chris Ogden is doing with this UT-Arlington program in his first year as their head coach. Ogden inherited only 15% of the minutes from UT-Arlington’s senior-laden team the year before. After working as an assistant for Chris Beard at Texas Tech and Rick Barnes both at Texas and Tennessee, it is clear that Ogden knows how to teach defense. The Mavericks lead the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and in opponent’s effective field goal percentage. After allowing Arkansas State to shoot 51.9% from the field, I expected a much better defensive effort — and I was correct on that front as UT-Arlington held the Ragin’ Cajuns to just a 40.6% field goal percentage. The problem was that the Mavericks made only 42.9% of their shots against a Red Wolves team that does not play good defense. Unfortunately for Ogden, that field goal percentage was still their best shooting mark in their last three contests. This is simply not a good shooting team — they are last in the Sun Belt in both effective field goal percentage and Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. What UT-Arlington does best on offense is crash the boards as they rank 3rd in the conference by pulling down 32.1% of their missed shots. I thought this is where they would dominate Louisiana (and they did pull down 10 offensive boards representing a 30.3% rate). But getting second-chance scoring opportunities will be much harder this afternoon against this War Hawks team that leads the Sun Belt by holding their opponents to just a 25.0% offensive rebound rate. The Mavericks will have to lean on their defense — they have held their last five opponents to just a 39.2% shooting mark. UT-Arlington has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Mavericks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after suffering two straight point spread losses. Additionally, UT-Arlington has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. And while their loss to the Ragin’ Cajuns finished below the 150.5 point total, the Mavericks have then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. UT-Arlington stays at home where they are 7-5 this season but where they are making only 40.7% of their shots. The Mavericks have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. UL-Monroe has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a narrow win by 3 points or less against conference rivals. The Warhawks have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. UL-Monroe made 49.1% of their shots in that game — and they have made at least 47.5% of their shots in three straight games. But the Warhawks have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after shooting at least 47.5% of their shots in three straight contests. Head coach Keith Richard emphasizes 3-point shooting — his team is second in the Sun Belt by collecting 37.9% of their points from 3-pointers. But Ogden has been very good teaching his team to defend the arc and force opposing shooters to take low percentage jump shots inside the arc. Only 30.9% of their opponent’s points are coming from made 3-pointers which is the third-best mark in the conference — and UT-Arlington then leads the conference by holding their opponents to just a 46.2% field goal percentage inside the arc. UL-Monroe stays on the road where they are 3-10 while making only 42.7% of their shots. The Warhawks have played 39 of their last 55 road games Under the Total — and they have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em. Furthermore, UL-Monroe has played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total in Sun Belt play. And in their last 38 road games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, the game finished Under the Total 28 times — and this includes ten Unders in these last thirteen situations.
FINAL TAKE: Expect this to be a defensive battle between two teams that struggle to make shots. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UL-Monroe Warhawks (659) and the UT-Arlington Mavericks (660). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-19 |
Green Bay v. Illinois-Chicago -4.5 |
Top |
63-62 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Illinois-Chicago Flames (862) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix (861). THE SITUATION: Illinois-Chicago (14-13) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 81-73 upset loss at Youngstown State as a 1-point favorite. Wisconsin-Green Bay (14-13) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 82-73 win over Detroit as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES MINUS THE POINTS: Illinois-Chicago has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after a loss to a Horizon League rival — and this includes them covering the point spread in four of their last six games after an upset loss to a conference rival. The Flames have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Now after playing their last three games on the road, Illinois-Chicago returns home for the first time since February 3rd. The Flames are 11-3 on their home court with an average winning margin of +7.7 PPG — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games after playing their last three games on the road. They make a healthy 47.2% of their shots at home while holding their opponents to just a 40.9% field goal percentage. Illinois-Chicago has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, the Flames have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 41 home games when favored in the 3.5 to 6 point range. Steve McClain is an underrated head coach who has assembled a nice trio of scorers on the perimeter with Marcus Ottey, Tarkus Ferguson, and Godwin Boahen. McClain has his team defend the 3-point line well to force opponents to take lower percentage jumpers inside the arc. Illinois-Chicago has the second best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Horizon League while leading the conference in opponent’s effective field goal percentage due to their opponent’s 42.7% shooting percentage inside the arc which is also best in the league. Green Bay makes only 32.8% of their shots from 3-point land — so they are reliant on shooting inside the arc. The Flames lead the Horizon League in taking shots from behind the 3-point line — and they are making 36.6% of their 3-pointers led by their trio of good guards. The Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning their last two games at home. And while the Phoenix have covered the point spread in their last two games as the favorite, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering two straight games as the fave. Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 4-11 with an average losing margin of -8.9 PPG. Green Bay makes only 43.2% of their shots on the road — and their up-tempo pace results in home teams scoring 86.6 PPG on 47.7% shooting against them. The Phoenix have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Illinois-Chicago will be looking to avenge a 90-85 loss to Green Bay back on January 9th. The Phoenix have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Chicago to play the Flames. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Game of the Year with the Illinois-Chicago Flames (862) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix (861). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-21-19 |
UL - Lafayette v. Texas-Arlington -3 |
Top |
76-64 |
Loss |
-107 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UT-Arlington Mavericks (624) minus the points versus the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (623). THE SITUATION: UT-Arlington (12-14) has lost two straight games after their 83-79 loss at Arkansas State last Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite. UL-Lafayette (14-10) has won their last two games with their 83-76 win over UL-Monroe as a pick ‘em on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS MINUS THE POINTS: Expect UT-Arlington to play a good game tonight as they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after a loss by 6 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 75 points. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year in Arlington after this team returned only 15% of the minutes from a senior-laden team last year. Expectations are sky-high internally with this program which is why head coach Scott Cross was dismissed after last season’s 21-13 campaign that ended in disappointment by losing to Georgia State in the conference tournament. The school hired Chris Ogden who has an outstanding pedigree as a longtime assistant to Rick Barnes at Texas and Tennessee before working with Chris Beard the last two seasons at Texas Tech. This team entered the year a big mystery with most of the roster consisting of junior college transfers and freshmen. As usual, the team endured a brutal non-conference schedule with games against Gonzaga, Texas, Indiana, Arkansas, and Missouri. But Ogden was able to use that experience to mold his team as they won eight of nine games in Sun Belt play before losing third last two games on the road. Now they return home where they have won 8 of their last 9 games after losing two of their last three games. This team is playing outstanding defense — they lead the Sun Belt in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while holding their last five opponents to just a 38.9% field goal percentage. Ogden should have had an attentive group in practice this week after they allowed the Red Wolves to make 51.9% of their shots which was their third worst defensive effort of the season and their worst over their last fifteen games. UT-Arlington is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games on their home court — and they are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Mavericks have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games as a favorite of no more than 6 points. UT-Arlington is not a good shooting team — but they make up for that by crashing the glass. They are second in the conference by pulling down 32.2% of their missed shots — and this is a vulnerability of the Ragin’ Cajuns who are 10th in the Sun Belt by allowing their opponents to rebound 29.7% of their missed shots. UL-Lafayette is also the worst defensive team in the conference in terms of Adjusted Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 51.8% of their missed shots so this is a good matchup of the Mavericks. In their win over the Warhawks, they allowed them to make 47.5% of their shots which actually represented the BEST DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCE IN THEIR LAST EIGHT GAMES! The Ragin’ Cajuns are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, UL-Lafayette has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning two of their last three games. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Ragin’ Cajuns go back on the road where they are 6-7 win the average losing margin of -5.0 PPG. They allow their home hosts to score 82.5 PPG while making 47.2% of their shots. But what I realized when we successfully backed this team a couple Fridays ago against Georgia State, they struggle on offense in the half court. This is an athletic team with three senior starters back from last year’s NIT team, but they are making only 41.8% of their shots on the road. In fact, the 50% shooting clip they produced last Saturday was the best offensive effort in their last fifteen games. UL-Lafayette has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in the 150 to 159.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: UT-Arlington’s strong defensive play and offensive rebounding should stymie the Ragin’ Cajuns who struggle on defense and in their half-court offense. UL-Lafayette has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year is with the UT-Arlington Mavericks (624) minus the points versus the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (623). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-19 |
North Carolina v. Duke UNDER 165.5 |
Top |
88-72 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (819) and the Duke Blue Devils (820). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (20-5) has won eight of their last nine games after their 95-57 win at Wake Forest as a 17-point favorite on Saturday. Duke (23-2) has won nine games in a row with their 94-78 win over North Carolina State as a 17-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It is certainly tempting to expect a high-scoring game between these two offensive juggernauts that play at the 3rd and 11th fastest paces in the nation. However, the Over tends to be overvalued in situations like this by the betting public. While my handicapping is very much informed by empirical situational angles, I rarely include them in my (already too long) Reports. I will share two historical angles that speak loudly to tonight’s situation with the Total set in the mid-160s. North Carolina and Duke are two elite teams that are outscoring their opponents by +12.2 PPG and +20.3 PPG — yet when teams that are outscoring their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG in the second half of the season with the Total set in the 160s, the game has then finished Under the Total in 72 of the last 106 (68%) situations where these conditions applied. This simple angle exposes two truths: (1) elite teams also tend to play very good defense and (2) the pressure inherent in heavyweight matchups tends to negatively impact shooting. Furthermore, great teams tend to rebound the ball well which leads to extending offensive possessions (with a new shot clock) and short-circuited the opponent’s offensive possessions (who often rely on second-chance points for their effectiveness). The Tar Heels and the Blue Devils out-rebound their opponents by +9.4 RPG and +7.2 RPG — and after 15 games into the season in contests between two teams that out-rebound their opponents by at least +6.0 RPG with the Total set in the 160s, the game finished Under the Total in 26 of these last 34 (77%) situations. Both these teams play outstanding defense: North Carolina is 20th in the nation Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while Duke ranks 5th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Tar Heels have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Blue Devils have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Both these teams have significant flaws on offense that their opponent will attempt to expose tonight. Bettors may still remember Duke’s torrid 3-point shooting in their high-profile showdown with Virginia two Saturdays ago where they nailed 13 of 21 (62%) of their shots from behind the arc. But the Regression Gods have since visited the Blue Devils as they have since made only 10 of their 44 (22.7%) of their 3-point attempts in their next two games. Duke is 305th in the nation with a 31.3% mark from behind the arc — and that number drops even further to a 30.5% clip in ACC play. My concerns for North Carolina on offense are qualitative when facing outstanding opponents. Roy Williams wants to play two traditional big men still — yet his best five on the court probably requires him to use a smaller (and more explosive) lineup with Luke Maye playing at the 5. I also don’t like the matchup Coby White faces tonight against the Blue Devils’ Tre Jones who is an absolute menace on defense. White has tended to disappear this season with games — and that stalls the Tar Heels offense: White scored 12 points in a loss to Michigan where his team put up 67 points; he scored 4 points in a loss to Louisville where UNC scored 62 points; he scored 8 points in a loss to Kentucky where UNC scored 72 points. The Tar Heels usually score 87.5 PPG but those three results represent three of their four lowest point outputs this season (with their most recent loss to Virginia who plays at a crawl being the fourth sample). Additionally, North Carolina may be due for a visit from the Regression Gods after they shot a season-high 62.3% in their win over the Demon Deacons. They made 16 of 25 (64%) of their 3-pointers in that win — but they have then played 6 straight Unders after making at least 50% of their 3-pointers in their last game. The Tar Heels 3-point shooting by a Duke team that is 14th in the nation with an opponent’s 3-point shooting percentage of 29.7% that lowers to a 27.3% mark when at home. Speaking of regression, the Blue Devils have played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Finally, North Carolina has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total with the number set in the 160s while Duke has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the number in the 160 to 169.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Team trends can be very helpful in identifying how teams typically respond to situations like this — and this particularly true in college basketball when dealing with established coaches like Williams and Mike Krzyzewski who deploy consistent styles of play from year-to-year. The Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams with the Under also 3-0-1 in the last 4 encounters at Cameron Indoor. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (819) and the Duke Blue Devils (820). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-19 |
Florida v. LSU -5.5 |
Top |
82-77 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (788) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (787). THE SITUATION: LSU (21-4) has won four straight games with their 83-79 win at Georgia on Saturday as a 7.5-point favorite. Florida (14-11) has won two straight games after their 71-53 upset win at Alabama as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Gators probably played their most complete game of the season against the Crimson Tide — but I do not see them sustaining that effort tonight. Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. The Gators have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. Injuries to Keith Stone and Chase Johnson have robbed this team of the depth that head coach Mike White was hoping for this season. This is a gritty team that has solid computer rankings in the various models due to a number of close losses: five of their losses this season were by 5 points or less with four of those coming against teams that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks in his top-43 teams in the nation. But this Florida team is also just 2-9 against Quadrant I teams according to the NET rankings. The Gators crumble against elite competition as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 80%. This proclivity to play close games against close games might make them intriguing to some bettors - but the data reveals that they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games in the underdog role. Their lack of size makes them vulnerable to bigger teams. They also struggle to score points while too often living or dying behind the 3-point line. Florida is 48th in the nation taking 44.8% of their shots from behind the arc with that number rising to a 45.2% mark in SEC play. But this team is making only 40.1% of their shots over their last five games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they are 5-7 this season while scoring only 61.9 PPG and shooting just 39.4% from the field. Despite shooting a high volume of their shots from downtown, they are doing this more out of necessity rather than skill because they are making just 32.9% of these shots in conference play (ranking 9th in the SEC). LSU does a fine job defending the arc as their opponents are making only 33.1% of their 3-pointers (4th in the SEC) — and only 28.8% of their opponent’s points are from these shots. Florida averages 9 made 3-pointers per game — but the Tigers have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after 15 games into the season against visitors who average at least 8 made 3-pointers per contest. The Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 130s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 trips to Baton Rouge to face the Tigers. LSU has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. The Tigers return home for a big three-game stretch where they are 12-1 with an average winning margin of +14.6 PPG. LSU is loaded with young talent led by sophomore Tremont Waters who made the All-SEC Freshman team last year along with two five-star recruits in freshmen Naz Reid and Emmit Williams. Reid at 6’10 leads a dominant frontline that is tops in the SEC by pulling down 38.4% of their missed shots which should feast on this small Florida team that ranks 11th in the conference by allowing their opponents to rebound 33.9% of their misses. The Tigers live inside the arc where they are second in the SEC by making 52.0% of their shots — and the Gators allow their opponents to make 52.0% of their 2-pointers which is 11th in the conference. At home, LSU makes 48.6% of their shots overall which translates into a healthy 85.8 PPG. The Tigers have won four games in a row — but all have been close results with the widest margin being by just 5 points. But keep in mind this team played three of those last four games on the road — and they have still covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games overall against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: That Florida has played some close losses while LSU has some recent narrow wins may make some bettors prefer to take the dog. That is Fool’s Gold logic. Styles make fights — and the Tigers match-up very well with this visiting Gators team. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the LSU Tigers (788) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (787). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-19-19 |
Florida State v. Clemson -1 |
Top |
77-64 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (630) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (629). THE SITUATION: Clemson (15-10) has lost two straight games after their 56-55 loss at Louisville on Saturday as a 4.5-point underdog. Florida State (20-5) has won seven straight games after they easily dispatched of Georgia Tech on the road on Saturday by a 69-47 margin as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Clemson has suffered two straight brutal losses on the road. The Tigers lost a heartbreaking 65-64 loss at Miami (FL) on a haphazard buzzer-beating step back jumper that rattled off the glass before circling the rim before deciding to drop into the cylinder to cost them that game. Head coach Brad Brownell’s team picked themselves off the mat on Saturday at Louisville before then losing that game via a last-second game-winning shot. I do expect the Tigers to maintain their resiliency — and they are absolutely desperate to earn a Quadrant I victory to improve their NCAA Tournament resume. As it is, Clemson has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less on the road. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Clemson made only 38.6% of their shots against the Cardinals which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. But now they return home where they make a healthy 47.4% of their shots which includes 35.3% of their shots from behind the arc. Scoring is the biggest weakness for this team — but they do shoot the ball better on their home court where they are 11-2 this season with an average winning margin of +11.5 PPG. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. This Clemson team plays elite level defense — they rank 13th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last five opponents to just a 31.2% field goal percentage. They hold their visitors to just 60.2 PPG on low 39.0% shooting from the field. This outstanding play on defense has helped them cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Florida State held the Yellow Jackets to just 27.1% shooting from the field which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage for them all season. That game finished well below the 130.5 point total — but the Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a game that finished Under the Total. And while Florida State has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. The Seminoles are loaded with talent and athleticism that head coach Leonard Hamilton deploys by having his team play at a fast pace. They thrive when crashing the offensive glass as they are 28th in the nation by pulling down 34.5% of their missed shots after out-rebounding their last two opponents by +12 and +16 boards. But Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after out-rebounding their last two opponents by at least +10 rebounds. But Clemson will be a tough opponent as they rank 15th in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding only 23.8% of their missed shots. Florida State does struggle to score baskets if they cannot take advantage of second-chance opportunities. The Tigers tend to struggle against teams that can make their 3s — but this is not the Seminoles as they rank 212th in the nation with a 33.7% shooting percentage from behind the arc. Florida State foes back on the road where they are 7-4 this season — but they are making only 43.8% of their shots away from home. The Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 road games after playing their last two games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Florida State’s 77-68 win at home over the Tigers back on January 22nd as a 6-point favorite. Clemson has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 opportunities to avenge a loss. Despite that earlier result, the Tigers match up well to the Seminoles. Look for them to earn their first signature win of the season back on their home court tonight. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPNU Game of the Year with the Clemson Tigers (630) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (629). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-14-19 |
Oral Roberts v. North Dakota State OVER 145 |
Top |
73-85 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (667) and the North Dakota State Bison (667). THE SITUATION: Oral Roberts (10-17) has won two straight games with their 86-72 upset win at South Dakota as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. North Dakota State (13-12) has won four straight games with their 81-71 win over Denver on Saturday as an 8.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Golden Eagles have played 38 of their last 53 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played a decisive 22 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Oral Roberts has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Additionally, the Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 31 of their last 40 games Over the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last game which includes thirteen of those last fifteen situations going Over the Total. This Oral Roberts team may have found their shooting stroke as they made 56.1% of their shots against South Dakota after making 51.1% of their shots against Denver in their previous game. The Golden Eagles have also 14 of 15 and 17 of 20 from the free throw line in their last two contests — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after shooting at least 78% from the charity stripe in at least two straight games. Now Oral Roberts stay on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Golden Eagles have also played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points. North Dakota State has played 24 of their last 32 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Furthermore, the Bison has played 37 of their last 54 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and this includes them playing eight of these last nine situations going Over the Total. And while North Dakota State has covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight contests. The Bison stay at home where they are scoring 79.6 PPG while making 49.3% of their shots. North Dakota State has played 22 of their last 29 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Additionally, the Bison have played 14 of their last 16 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Oral Roberts is looking to avenge a 67-57 loss to North Dakota State loss to the Bison back on January 26th — and they have played 25 of their last 38 games when playing with revenge. In the last 7 meetings between these two teams in Fargo, the game finished Over the Total 5 times. 25* CBB Summit League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (667) and the North Dakota State Bison (667). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-13-19 |
Minnesota v. Nebraska UNDER 137.5 |
Top |
61-62 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (829) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (830). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (16-8) has lost three straight games with their 79-55 loss at Michigan State last Saturday as a 13.5-point underdog. Nebraska (13-11) has lost seven in a row with their 81-62 loss at Purdue as a 13-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Gophers should play better on defense after allowing the Spartans to make 51.7% of their shots from the field. That was the second-worst opponent’s field goal percentage that they have allowed in their last seven games. Minnesota has been consistently inconsistent this season — so a good effort looks likely for this veteran team that plays tough and physical when at their best. The Golden Gophers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. And while Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Golden Gophers stay on the road where they are 4-6 this season. They struggle to score points when away from home as they average just 63.4 PPG on the road while making just 38.9% of their shots. The Under is 9-1-1 in Minnesota’s last 11 games on the road — and the Under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Nebraska has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Furthermore, the Cornhuskers have played 33 of their last 51 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. Nebraska should play much better on defense tonight after allowing the Boilermakers to make 50.9% of their shots. That was the worst defensive effort in their last 15 games. Tim Miles’ team usually plays strong on defense as they rank 35th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also ranking 14th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.3%. Miles will want his team to work harder on the boards after being out-rebounded by a 39 to 24 margin. The Cornhuskers have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after being out-rebounded by at least 15 boards. The problem for this team during their losing streak has been their inability to hit a side of a barn on offense. They are making just 32% of their shots over their last five games which translated into just 56.4 PPG. While the Regression Gods may decide to let all their bank shots from behind the arc rattle into the basket — I do not think that happens tonight with Isaac Copeland, Jr. out with a knee injury. The forward is the team’s second-leading scorer with a 14.0 PPG average. Nebraska returns home where they are 9-4 this season but making only 42.7% of their shots. The Cornhuskers' recipe for success at home is on defense where they hold their opponents to only 56.8 PPG while holding their opponents to just a 35.7% field goal percentage. Nebraska has played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Additionally, the Cornhuskers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: This will be a rematch of the meeting between these two teams back on December 5th where the Golden Gophers won in Minnesota by an 85-78 score. Nebraska has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 85 points. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (829) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (830). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-13-19 |
South Florida +7.5 v. UCF |
Top |
65-78 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the South Florida Bulls (793) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (794). South Florida (17-6) has won five straight games after their 72-68 win over East Carolina as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday as a 12.5-point favorite. Central Florida (17-5) has won two of their last three games after their 71-65 upset win at SMU as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: South Florida is clicking on all cylinders right now — and they should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Bulls have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a win over a conference rival. And while USF did not cover the point spread against the Pirates, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. This team is 4-4 on the road — but they are outscoring these eight opponents to +5.1 PPG where their 45.0% field goal percentage is higher than their overall 43.8% field goal mark. The Bulls have two characteristics that travel well. First, they pound the offensive glass as they rank 3rd in the American Athletic Conference by pulling down 35.5% of their missed shots — and the Knights are 8th in the conference by allowing their opponents to rebound 31.5% of their missed shots. Second, USF forces turnovers — they are tops in the AAC by forcing turnovers in 22.9% of their opponent’s possessions and they are facing a UCF team that is 7th in the conference by turning the ball over in 18.2% of their possessions. South Florida has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Bulls allowed East Carolina to make 45.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. USF is second in the AAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and this tough defense has helped them covered the spin spread in 14 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Central Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Knights played one of their best games of the season in their upset win against the Mustangs. They made 52% of their shots from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games — and they held SMU to a 39.7% which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. UCF also made 12 of their 13 (92.3%) free throw attempts which was a spectacular accomplishment for a team that ranks 336th in the nation by making only 63.2% of their shots from the charity stripe. But the Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after making at least 78% of their free throws in their last game. UCF returns home where they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Central Florida’s best win is against an Alabama team that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks just at 48th in the nation. They are 0-2 against Quadrant 1 teams for the NCAA’s NET rankings — and they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Expect a close game from an underrated Bulls team that does a lot of things to keep them competitive in games. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the South Florida Bulls (793) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (794). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-12-19 |
Butler v. St. John's -3.5 |
Top |
73-77 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the St. John’s Red Storm (628) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (627). THE SITUATION: St. John’s (17-7) has lost two of their last three games with their 70-56 upset loss to Providence on Saturday as a 5-point favorite. Butler (14-10) has won their last two games with their 73-69 win at Georgetown as a 2-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED STORM MINUS THE POINTS: St. John’s should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home. Additionally, the Red Storm have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. St. John’s got killed on the boards in their loss to the Friars on Saturday as they were out-rebounded by a 43 to 23 margin. The Red Storm play small-ball and do not privilege rebounding — they are last in the Big East in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage but that is, in large measure, a reflection of head coach Chris Mullin wanting his team to get back on defense to stop transition baskets while getting out in transition when their opponents miss their shots. But getting out-rebounded by 20 boards was a reflection of a lack of effort as it was the worst divide this team has seen all season. St. John’s has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after being out-rebounded by at least 20 boards. The Red Storm have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a loss at home. They stay at home as they attempt to redeem themselves from that loss where they are 10-3 with an average winning margin of +11.4 net PPG. Led by Shamorie Ponds, this St. John’s team is one of the most talented groups in the Big East. They score 81.3 PPG while making 48.1% of their shots on their home court so they should fare much better than they did on Saturday where they made only two shots from behind the arc while shooting just 37% from the field. The Red Storm have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games after playing their previous game at home. Butler has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games on the road after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. The Bulldogs win over the Hoyas came off a narrow 2-point win over Seton Hall — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning at least two straight games. Butler is nailing their 3-pointers as they have made 10 and 12 shots from behind the arc in each of their last two games. But the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after making at least 10 shots from the 3-point line in two straight games. These Butler teams under head coach LaVell Jordan do not crash the offensive glass as they have in the past — they have managed only 7 and 4 offensive rebounds in their last two games. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after failing to rebound at least 9 boards in two straight games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 4-7 this season. Butler shoots only 42.3% from the field on the road while making only 33.8% of their 3-point shots. The Bulldogs are making only 42.6% of their shots over their last five games — and they are also allowing their last five opponents to make 48% of their shots. Defense is an issue for this team as they are last in the Big East by allowing their conference opponents to make 53.5% of their shots inside the arc.
FINAL TAKE: St. John’s will have the extra motivation of avenging an 80-71 loss at Butler earlier this season back on January 19th. The Red Storm have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Tuesday CBS Sports Network Game of the Year with the St. John’s Red Storm (628) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (627). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-09-19 |
Colorado v. USC -4.5 |
Top |
69-65 |
Loss |
-109 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (768) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (767). THE SITUATION: USC (13-10) has lost two of their last three games with their 77-70 loss to Utah as a 6-point favorite on Wednesday. Colorado (13-9) pulled off their second straight upset victory when they shocked UCLA at Pauley Pavilion on Wednesday as a 6-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS MINUS THE POINTS: Look for the Buffaloes to suffer an emotional letdown tonight after making 53.8% of their shots in the best shooting effort in their last seven games. Colorado also made 13 of their 24 (54.2%) from behind the arc — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after making at least thirteen 3-pointers. The Buffaloes have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 26 games after winning at least two games in a row. Their win over the Bruins was preceded by a 73-51 upset win at home over Oregon as a 1-point underdog. The Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning their last two contests by double-digits. Despite their recent success, this Colorado team lacks consistent shooters. They stay on the road where they are 5-6 while making only 43% of their shots and a mere 33.3% of their shots from behind the arc. The Buffaloes have been a notorious underachiever away from the high altitude in Boulder that gives them an advantage over their visitors: they are a decisive 18-45-1 ATS in their last 64 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. The Buffaloes have also failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 road game as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in six of these last seven situations. USC has covered the points spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset loss to a Pac-12 rival. The Trojans made just 38% of their shots on Wednesday which was the worst shooting effort for them in their last thirteen games. USC has a likely one-and-doner in freshman Kevin Porter, Jr. who has returned to action after serving a suspension for some off-the-court issues for much of the season. This team can still make a push to qualify for postseason tournaments — and, given the quality of competition in the Pac-12, head coach Andy Enfield has to feel that winning the Pac-12 Tournament remains a possibility for his team. The Trojans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two of their last three games. They stay at home where they are 11-3 this season with an average winning margin of +12.7 PPG. USC makes 47.6% of their shots on their home court — but they thrive with their defensive efforts on their home court where they limit their opponents to just a 38% field goal percentage. Over their last five games, USC has held its opponents to just a 37.7% field goal percentage. Overall, the Trojans have an opponents’ field goal percentage of 41.7% — and these are the type of teams that give the Buffaloes trouble. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games against teams that do not allow their opponents to make more than 42.0% of their shots. USC has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 13 home games as a favorite or pick ‘em, the Trojans have covered the point spread in 9 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: Porter has only played in 12 games this season but has played in the last five games for Enfield. Not only does he have the highest upside when it comes to putting the ball in the net for this team, but his presence helps deal with the depth issues the Trojans have encountered this season given the unholy trinity of injuries, suspensions, and transfers. Look for USC to soundly defeat a Colorado team due for a big letdown on the road. 25* CBB Saturday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the USC Trojans (768) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (767). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-09-19 |
Ohio v. Miami-OH UNDER 132.5 |
Top |
59-79 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (631) and the Miami (OH) Redhawks (632). THE SITUATION: Ohio (11-10) has lost two straight games after their 65-53 loss to Akron last Saturday as a 2-point favorite. Miami (OH) (12-11) has lost two of their last three games with their 70-67 loss at Kent State as a 4-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bobcats have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 10 points. And while Ohio has only covered the point spread twice in their last twelve games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. This team is last in the Mid-American Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and now they go on the road where they are scoring only 59.8 PPG with a low 38.4% field goal percentage. The Bobcats have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Ohio has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against fellow MAC opponents. Miami (OH) has seen the Under go 28-11-1 in their last 40 games against conference opponents. The Redhawks have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 21-8-1 in their last 30 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Miami has played 7 straight games at home Under the Total after a loss. This is a team that sacrifices offensive rebounding to get back on defense — they are last in the MAC by pulling down only 24.6% of their missed shots. Over their last five games, the Redhawks are allowing only 60.4 PPG while holding their opponents to just a 39.6% field goal percentage. But during that span, Miami is scoring only 65.4 PPG themselves on 41.5% shooting (and few second-chance opportunities). Now after playing their last two games on the road, the Redhawks return home where they hold their opponents to just 63.8 PPG on 41.3% shooting from the field. Miami has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 meetings at Miami. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (631) and the Miami (OH) Redhawks (632). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-08-19 |
Georgia State v. UL - Lafayette +1 |
Top |
72-76 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (864) plus the point(s) versus the Georgia State Panthers (863). Louisiana-Lafayette (12-10) has lost three straight games after their 103-86 loss to Georgia Southern on Wednesday as a 1.5-point underdog. Georgia State (16-7) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their 82-76 loss at UL-Monroe as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINT(S): Louisiana should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home after a loss to a fellow Sun Belt Conference rival. Additionally, the Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a loss by at least 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight home games after a double-digit loss. This Louisiana team was 16-2 last season in conference play before losing in the first round of the Sun Belt Conference opponents. The team has three seniors back from that group in JaKeenan Gant, Malik Marquette and Marcus Stroman that lead the way this season. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on their home court with the Total set in the 160 to 169.5 point range. Georgia State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss to a Sun Belt rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road to a conference opponent. Furthermore, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread setback. This team returns four starters from the group that made the NCAA Tournament last season. But this team lacks size — they rank last in the Sun Belt by allowing their opponents to pull down 33.4% of their missed shots. Now Georgia State stays on the road where they have lost six of their seven games this season while having a negative point differential in those contests. The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. Georgia State makes only 44.9% of their shots when playing on the road which is a few notches below their 46.8% season average. The Panthers have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against Sun Belt Conference rivals.
FINAL TAKE: Louisiana will be playing with revenge on their mind from an 89-76 loss to Georgia State back on January 10th — and the Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (864) plus the point(s) versus the Georgia State Panthers (863). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-07-19 |
College of Charleston v. Delaware +5.5 |
Top |
83-75 |
Loss |
-112 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Delaware Blue Hens (604) plus the points versus the College of Charleston Cougars (603). THE SITUATION: Delaware (14-10) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 84-63 loss at William & Mary on Saturday as a 5.5-point underdog. College of Charleston (18-6) has won four straight contests after their 54-53 win over Towson on Saturday as a 11.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE HENS PLUS THE POINTS: Delaware played one of their worst games of the season on Saturday. They made only 33.9% of their shots which was the worst offensive effort in their last ten games — and they allowed the Pride to make 50.9% of their shots which as the worst defensive performance in their last five games. The Blue Hens should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a loss by at least 15 points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Delaware is also a decisive 39-19-3 ATS in their last 61 games after a point spread loss. The Blue Hens have failed to cover the point spread in four straight contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 36 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games while also covering the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in four straight contests. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they are 8-4 this season where they are making 49.1% of their shots while holding their visitors to just a 42.6% field goal percentage. Delaware has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after losing their last two games against Colonial Athletic Association rivals — and they have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Blue Hens have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games as an underdog or pick ‘em. Charleston has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a game where both teams failed to score more than 65 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after failing to reach at least the 60 point threshold in their last game. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning at least three straight games. Now after playing four straight games at home where they were favored in each game, Charleston goes back on the road where they are just 7-5 this season. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after playing at least two straight games as a home favorite. Charleston’s worse loss of the season was at a James Madison team that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks as just the 279th best team in the nation. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Charleston had covered the point spread in three straight games before their narrow win over Towson on Saturday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread just once in their last four games. And while the Cougars have not allowed more than 59 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 60 points in four straight contests.
FINAL TAKE: Delaware will also have revenge on their mind after their 71-58 loss at Charleston back on January 12th. The Blue Hens have covered the point spread in 10 of the last 16 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Underdog of the Year with the Delaware Blue Hens (604) plus the points versus the College of Charleston Cougars (603). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-06-19 |
California v. Oregon UNDER 139.5 |
Top |
62-73 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 14 m |
Show
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At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (831) and the Oregon Ducks (832). THE SITUATION: California (5-16) has lost ten straight games after their 84-81 loss at home to Stanford last Sunday as a 4-point underdog. Oregon (13-9) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 73-51 upset loss at Colorado as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Bears have played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a loss to a fellow Pac-12 rival. Cal has also played 10 straight road games Under the Total after losing at least two games in a row. Cal lost seven contributors from last year’s 8-24 team — and they have continued to struggle this season as they are last in the Pac-12 in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and with their effective field goal percentage of 45.5%. They have allowed their last three opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Golden Bears go back on the road where they are 0-9 this season while making just 42.9% of their shots which is resulting in only 67.6 PPG. Cal has played 12 of their last 16 road games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 16 road games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games at home. Furthermore, the Golden Bears have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 12.5 to 18 points. Oregon has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. The Ducks have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Oregon returns home where they are 9-4 this season while holding their opponents to just 64.8 PPG on a low 42.0% field goal percentage. The Ducks have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. Oregon has also played 24 of their last 33 home games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a Pac-12 rival. The Ducks have been hit hard with injuries this season with the biggest being to Bol Bol who is out the year with a left foot injury. While Dana Altman’s team is back to full strength — save for Bol — the offensive chemistry of this team has been disrupted. Oregon ranks 10th in the Pac-12 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But the Ducks have been solid on defense as they rank 5th in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as the favorite laying 12.5 to 18 points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams play at the two slowest paces in the Pac-12 — Cal’s 18.2 seconds per possession in conference action is only quicker than Oregon’s 19.0 seconds per possession. The Ducks do force pressure to create scoring opportunities — they are second in the Pac-12 by forcing turnovers in 24.4% of their conference opponents possessions. But protecting the basketball may be what this Bears team does best as they are second in the conference by only turning the ball over in 15.9% of their possessions in conference play. Expect a slog. 25* CBB Wednesday FS1 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (831) and the Oregon Ducks (832). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-05-19 |
Drake v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 130 |
Top |
64-86 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 27 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (615) and the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (616). THE SITUATION: Drake (17-6) has won five of their last six games with their 68-62 upset victory at Indiana State on Saturday as a 1-point underdog. Loyola-Chicago (14-9) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 65-57 loss to Illinois State as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Drake has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bulldogs stay on the road where they are holding their hosts to just a 41.7% field goal percentage. Drake has the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Missouri Valley Conference — and they have played 6 of their last 7 conference games Under the Total. But the Bulldogs make only 44.7% of their shots away from home as compared to their 47.5% field goal mark for the season. Drake has played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. This team has seen their scoring output derailed with the season-ending ACL injury to Nick Norton. The senior guard was the second-leading scorer on the team with a 14.0 PPG scoring average — and by taking 22.2% of the team’s shots for the season, he was taking the second most percentage of shots on the team. Moving forward, the Bulldogs have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Loyola-Chicago has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. The Ramblers have played two straight games where neither team scored more than 65 points. Not only has Loyola-Chicago played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points but they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after playing two straight games where neither team scored at least 65 points. The Ramblers return home where they are 10-3 this season while holding their visitors to just 57.9 PPG on low 40.7% shooting from the field. Loyola-Chicago has played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Ramblers have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Drake will be looking to avenge an 85-74 loss to Loyola-Chicago back on January 5th. The Bulldogs have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total when on the road playing with revenge from a same-season loss. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams on the Ramblers’ home court. 25* CBB Tuesday CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (615) and the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (616). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-02-19 |
Middle Tennessee v. UAB -11 |
Top |
79-78 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (742) minus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (741). THE SITUATION: UAB (14-8) has the opportunity for immediate revenge as they host Middle Tennessee (6-16) after getting upset in their gym by a 71-65 score despite being a 6-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: UAB should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset loss as a favorite. The Blazers made only 41.1% of their shots in that game — but now they return home where they are making 50.1% of their shots this season. UAB is 10-1 on their home court this season while outscoring their guests by +13.1 PPG. The Blazers lead Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are holding their visitors to just 62.7 PPG with a low 37.8% field goal percentage. UAB has covered the point spread in 4 straight games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range. Furthermore, the Blazers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when laying 6.5 to 12 points. And while UAB has played two straight games Over the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing two straight Overs. Middle Tennessee is due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Now the Blue Raiders go back on the road where they are 0-12 this season with an average losing margin of -18.1 PPG. Middle Tennessee only scores 59.2 PPG away from home on 38.2% shooting which is not surprising when considering that they rank 12th in Conference USA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Blue Raiders are not much better on defense either where they rank 11th in the conference in Adjusted Efficiency. Middle Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Blue Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Middle Tennessee travels to Birmingham for this rematch where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 trips to face the Blazers. We are on a great College Basketball run right now with the conference sample sizes now large enough to make some strong comparative assessments — and this play really popped when I got to it on the large CBB card where I look closely at every game on the docket to find hidden gems (and I hope I did not just jinx it for us — great situations still do not always win). 25* CBB Conference USA Game of the Year with the UAB Blazers (742) minus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (741). Bets of luck for us — Frank.
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02-01-19 |
Maryland v. Wisconsin UNDER 131 |
Top |
61-69 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (869) and the Wisconsin Badgers (870). THE SITUATION: Maryland (17-5) snapped a two-game losing streak on Tuesday with a 70-52 win over Northwestern as a 7.5-point favorite. Wisconsin (15-6) has won four straight games after their 62-51 upset win at Nebraska as a 3.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Terrapins played a great game on defense against the Wildcats as they held them to just a 31% field goal percentage. Maryland has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. And while that game finished below the 132.5 point total, the Terrapins have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished below the number. Maryland’s defense has traveled this season — they are holding their home hosts to just 62.2 PPG on low 39.6% shooting. The Terrapins have held their last five opponents to just a 39.4% field goal percentage as head coach Mark Turgeon continues to see improvement from his team on that end of the court. But while Maryland is loaded with talent, their offense can stall out. Turgeon decided early on to move his best player, Anthony Cowan, off the ball to put him in better positions to score while lowering his work rate as he did with Melo Trimble’s final year with the program. But while it was Cowan who glided into the point guard position then, freshman Eric Ayala is struggling with this transition this season. The Terrapins starting point guard has a higher turnover rate than assist rate and he is one of the reasons that this team ranks 13th in the Big Ten by turning the ball over in 21.0% of their possessions. Maryland scored 78.7 PPG when playing at home — but that number drops to just 68.6 PPG when they are playing on the road. Over their last five games, the Terrapins are making just 42.8% of their shots. The Terrapins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against Big Ten opponents — and they have played 3 of their last 4 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Wisconsin has played 26 of their last 31 games Under the Total after an upset victory over a Big Ten rival. The Badgers play outstanding defense — they rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also ranking 12th in the country with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.8%. Wisconsin has held their last five opponents to just 33.6% shooting from the field — and Big Ten opponents are making only 37.8% of their shots against them. Furthermore, the Badgers are holding their visitors to just 61.7 PPG on low 40.4% shooting — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. One of the reasons why the Badgers are so tough to score on is that their games are almost entirely consisting of slogs in the half-court. Wisconsin is 9th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 14.9% of their possessions. But the Badgers’ half-court offense has slowed down as opponents have made the decision to key on D’Mitrik Trice. While the 6’0 guard is averaging 13.9 PPG, he is scoring 12.2 PPG over his last five games which includes only 8 points against the Cornhuskers and only 6 points against Michigan. Senior Ethan Happ gets most of the headlines for this team — but he is not a good natural shooter given his 47% free throw percentage along with zero made 3-pointers this season. Wisconsin is making just 43.8% of their shots over their last five games. Head coach Greg Gard does have an assortment of players who can make 3-pointers — they rank 3rd in the Big Ten by making 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc. But the Terrapins defend the perimeter well — they rank 4th in the Big Ten with an opponent’s 3-point mark of just 31.1% and home teams are making only 29.1% of their 3-pointers against them when they are playing on the road. The Under is a decisive 38-18-4 in Wisconsin’s last 60 games against Big Ten opponents — and the Badgers have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. With two head coaches that preach defense facing offenses that have significant holes, expect a lower scoring game once again between these two teams. 25* CBB Friday FS1 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (869) and the Wisconsin Badgers (870). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-01-19 |
Northern Kentucky v. IUPU-Indianapolis +3.5 |
Top |
77-83 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the IUPUI Jaguars (864) plus the points versus the Northern Kentucky Norse (863). THE SITUATION: IUPUI (13-9) has won three of their last four games with their 80-65 win over Detroit last Saturday as an 8-point favorite. Northern Kentucky (18-4) has won six games in a row with their 73-60 win over Wisconsin-Milwaukee last Saturday as a 16.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: Northern Kentucky has established themselves as the class of the Horizon League in his fourth year with the program. But this is basketball team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after winning at least three straight games in conference play. The Norse held Milwaukee to just a 36.9% field goal percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last seven games. But Northern Kentucky has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing no more than 60 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Norse has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win on their home court. Now after playing their last two games at home, Northern Kentucky goes back on the road where they experienced all four of their losses including a 2-point conference loss at Oakland that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks as the 209th best team in the nation (as compared to the #179 ranking for IUPUI, for comparisons sake). The Norse have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. IUPUI defeated the Titans last week despite seeing them shoot 51.1% from the field which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. The Jaguars stay at home where they are 8-2 this season with an average winning margin of +11.7 PPG. IUPUI should play better on defense tonight as they hold their visitors to just a 43.2% field goal percentage. But what makes the Jaguars tough to beat when playing at home is their ability to score points — they are averaging 84.3 PPG while making 49.6% of their shots on their home court. IUPUI leads the Horizon League by pulling down 36.7% of their missed shots. Former 4-star recruits coming out of high school are rare commodities in the Horizon League but head coach Jason Gardner has one in Vanderbilt transfer Camron Justice who left that program to liberate himself from a crowded backcourt situation. The Jaguars rise to the occasion against good teams as they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. IUPUI has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog getting no more than 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars will also have revenge on their minds after losing to the Norse on the road back on December 28th by a 92-77 score. IUPUI has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road to their opponents. 25* CBB Horizon League Underdog of the Year with the IUPUI Jaguars (864) plus the points versus the Northern Kentucky Norse (863). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-31-19 |
Cal-Irvine v. UC-Santa Barbara UNDER 133 |
Top |
66-62 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UC-Irvine Anteaters (647) and the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (648). THE SITUATION: UC-Irvine (17-5) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 82-64 win over UC-Riverside last Saturday as a 13-point favorite. UC-Santa Barbara (15-4) has won seven of their last eight games with their 82-71 win at Long Beach State as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: UC-Irvine has played 27 of their last 38 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Anteaters made 52.5% of their shots on Saturday which was the best offensive effort in their last six games. But now UC-Irvine goes back on the road where they are making just 41.6% of their shots. The Anteaters’ defense should travel — they lead in the Big West Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also leading the conference with an opponent’s effective goal percentage of 46.1%. UC-Irvine holds their home hosts to just a 38.3% field goal percentage. The Anteaters have played 15 of their last 19 road games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as the favorite. Additionally, UC-Irvine has played 12 of their last 14 games on the road Under the Total against fellow Big West opponents. UC-Santa Barbara has played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and this includes them playing eight of their last nine home games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now the Gauchos return home where they are a perfect 9-0 while holding their visitors to just 56.3 PPG on low 36.4% shooting. The Under is a decisive 34-15-2 in UC-Santa Barbara’s last 51 games on their home court — and they have also seen the Under go 6-1-1 in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Gauchos can struggle to score points — they are 8th in the Big West in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Over their last five games, UC-Santa Barbara is making only 42.8% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams typically play lower scoring games. The Under is 19-7-2 in the last 28 meetings between these two teams — and this includes them playing four straight Unders when facing off in Santa Barbara. Expect another lower-scoring game between these two teams. 25* College Basketball Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UC-Irvine Anteaters (647) and the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (648). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-31-19 |
Cleveland State v. Detroit -5 |
Top |
64-78 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Detroit Mercy Titans (606) minus the points versus the Cleveland State Vikings (605). THE SITUATION: Detroit Mercy (8-13) has lost three straight games after their 80-65 loss at IUPUI last Saturday as an 8-point underdog. Cleveland State (6-16) snapped their eight-game losing streak on Saturday with their 72-62 win over Youngstown State as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS: Detroit should bounce-back to play a good game tonight as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after double-digit loss on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. And while Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 contests after failing to cover the point spread in three straight contests. Now after playing their last two games on the road, the Titans return home where they are 5-4 this season with an average winning margin of +6.4 PPG. Detroit has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, the Titans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. Detroit has a good head coach running things in Mike Davis — and they are the second best team in the Horizon League in terms of Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Titans are making 48.1% of their shots over their last five games. They are also second in the Horizon League with a 38.9% shooting mark from behind the arc — and the Vikings are 7th in the conference by allowing their opponents to make 36.5% of their 3-pointers. Detroit should also find success forcing turnovers — they lead the Horizon League by forcing turnovers in 21.2% of their opponent’s possessions. Cleveland State is 8th in the conference by forcing turnovers in 19.5% of their possessions. The Vikings are due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. And while Cleveland State has only covered the point spread once in their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least three of their last four games. This Vikings team is not good — they are last in the Horizon League in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Now after playing their last three games at home, Cleveland State goes back on the road where they are 0-9 with an average losing margin of -13.5 PPG. The Vikings make only 40.6% of their shots on the road — and they allow their opponents to score 84.3 PPG on 47.6% shooting away from home. Cleveland State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games after playing their last three games at home. Additionally, the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 150 to 154.5 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points. Furthermore, Detroit is 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games when playing at Detroit.
FINAL TAKE: This should be a hidden gem on tonight’s big college basketball card as this Vikings team has been not good at all when playing on the road. Detroit is not great either — but they have bee respectable when playing in front of their home crowd. By making their 3s and forcing turnovers, Davis’ team does a few things that should help them win this game comfortably. 25* CBB Horizon League Game of the Month with the Detroit Mercy Titans (606) minus the points versus the Cleveland State Vikings (605). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-30-19 |
UCLA v. Washington State +4.5 |
Top |
87-67 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (836) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (835). THE SITUATION: Washington State (8-12) has lost three straight games as well as nine of their last ten games with their 78-58 loss at Oregon on Sunday as a 13-point underdog. UCLA (11-9) has won three games in a row with their 90-69 blowout win over Arizona on Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: After playing their last two games on the road as well as seven of their last nine games away from home, Washington State returns home to play for just the third time since December 19th. This is the anti-Duke college basketball schedule who played in their first true road game on January 8th. Washington State defeated Cal by an 82-59 score in one of these lonely two home games before getting upset as a small 2-point favorite to Stanford. The Cougars are 8-3 on their home court this season with an average winning margin of +10.6 net PPG. They play much better defense at home where they hold their visitors to just a 43.4% field goal percentage. But where Washington State thrives back on the familiar home court is in shooting the basketball where they make 49.1% of their shots including 37.9% of their shots from behind the arc. The Cougars should have a field day from outside against this Bruins team that has allows their home hosts to drill 40.9% of their 3-point shots. Washington State has covered the point spread in a decisive 34 of their last 54 home games after losing at least four of their last five games. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 33 home games, as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points, Washington State has covered the point spread 21 times. Washington State should certainly get more whistles tonight after getting to the line only four times when playing in Eugene against the Ducks and Nike University. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a game where they did not attempt at least 7 free throws. Washington State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 expected high-scoring games with the Total set at least 160. This team has a good player who bypassed the NBA last year in forward in Robert Franks who is scoring 21.2 PPG while averaging 7.6 Rebounds-Per-Game — and he missed five games this season including four of the nine losses this team has experienced during this recent stretch of games. UCLA has plenty of talent with rotational players returning from last year’s NCAA Tournament team along with five top-100 freshman recruits. However, this team has been an inconsistent mess that has already cost head coach Steve Alford his job. Admittedly, the Bruins played one of their best games of the season in their blowout win over the Wildcats on Saturday. UCLA made 57.9% of their shots in that game in what was the best shooting performance of the season — and they held Arizona to just a 33.3% field goal percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last thirteen contests. But a letdown is highly likely for this wildly inconsistent team that has lost eight of their nine games by double-digits. The Bruins have failed to get the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a win by at least 20 points. Perhaps it is the lack of a senior on the roster that contributes to the immaturity of this squad. They also cannot make their free throws which is a very dangerous characteristic for a small road favorite. UCLA is 345th in the nation by making just 60.8% of their shots at the charity stripe — and that number drops to an incredible 58.9% mark in conference play. The worst-case scenario playing out early tonight could be still salvaged by the Cougars putting the Bruins on the line so they can trade missed free throws for made 3-pointers. Then again, this UCLA team is just 1-5 on the road with an average losing margin of +14.7 PPG. The Bruins make only 41.8% of their shots on the road — and they allow their home hosts to make 47.6% of their shots which translates into 86.2 PPG. UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when favored by no more than 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: I have considered this Washington State team a little underrated this season in the weak Pac-12 given that their record includes not having their best player for five games. It took some elbow grease researching this game to discover just how skewed the Cougars schedule has been — but this offers us a very nice opportunity now against a reliably unreliable UCLA team. 25* CBB Pac-12 Game of the Month with the Washington State Cougars (836) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (835). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-19 |
Memphis v. Tulsa +2 |
Top |
79-95 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (810) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (809). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (12-9) has lost three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 77-65 loss to Houston as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (13-7) has won four of their last five games with their 77-57 win over Central Florida as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN HURRICANES PLUS THE POINTS: Tulsa should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Head coach Frank Haith has a solid team this season that returned six of the top ten players from last year’s squad that finished 19-12. The Golden Hurricanes will be happy to stay at home after playing four of their last six games on the road. Tulsa has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games after a straight-up loss. The Golden Hurricanes have endured a difficult schedule at home as of late. Metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks that Cougars team they played on Sunday as the 20th best team in the nation. The other loss at home over their last six games was in overtime against a Cincinnati team that Pomeroy ranks as the 24th best team in the country. Tulsa has registered a win at home against UConn that Pomeroy ranks at #76 and they also have a win on a neutral court against Dayton that Pomeroy ranks at #68 — so hosting this Memphis team that Pomeroy places at #71 is a very winnable game for them. The Golden Hurricanes are 10-2 at home this season with an average winning margin of +5.9 PPG. They make a healthy 46.6% of their shots on their home court — but their more impressive play is on defense where they limit their guests to just a 39.9% field goal percentage. Tulsa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Golden Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games with the Total set in the 150 to 159.5 point range. Tulsa thrives at getting to the free throw line — they rank 4th in the nation with a Free-Throw-Attempt to Field-Goal-Attempt ratio of 46.3%. Memphis plays at the 10th fastest pace in the nation — but this blazing tempo has the side effect of producing plenty of fouls. The Tigers are 281st in the nation with an opponent’s FTA:FGA ratio of 37.7%. Memphis is due for a big emotional letdown after their big win over the Knights on Sunday. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games after a win by at least 10 points over an American Athletic Conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a victory by at least 20 points over a conference opponent. This young Memphis team has been tough at home in that rejuvenated environment under first-year head coach and local icon Penny Hardaway. The Tigers are 11-1 on their home court this season. But Memphis is just 2-6 when playing away from home this year where they are being outscored by -6.6 PPG. The Tigers are allowing 80.2 PPG when on the road with those opponents making 46.0% of their shots. Memphis also sees their 46.2% field goal percentage on the season drop to just a 42.4% mark when playing away from home. The Tigers’ two wins away from home do not inspire confidence in this situation. Memphis defeated Tulane in a true road game while also beating Canisius on a neutral court — yet Pomeroy ranks those teams as his 301st and 241st teams in the nation (to offer some context for those accomplishments). The Tigers are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Those six returning players on the Golden Hurricanes will also have revenge on their mind as it was Memphis who handed them their twelfth loss to end their season last year by a 67-64 last March in the American Athletic Conference tournament. These are two teams fighting for a second-tier postseason tournament this year — Tulsa’s home court edge along with their likely spending a lot of time on the free throw line tonight should make the differences. 25* College Basketball Underdog of the Month with the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (810) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (809). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-29-19 |
Georgia v. Arkansas UNDER 153.5 |
Top |
60-70 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (603) and the Arkansas Razorbacks (604). THE SITUATION: Georgia (10-9) snapped their four-game losing streak on Saturday with their 98-88 upset win over Texas as a 4.5-point underdog. Arkansas (11-8) has lost five of their last six games with their 67-64 loss at Texas Tech as a 10-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs made a season-high 66.7% of their shots in their rout of the Longhorns. The Regression Gods are highly likely to make a visit to Fayetteville for this Georgia team that makes only 45.2% of their shots on the road. And in their six conference games this season, they are hitting just 41.4% of their shots. The Bulldogs have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Georgia has also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bulldogs have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last contest. Furthermore, while Georgia has played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. The Bulldogs go back on the road where they are scoring just 69.1 PPG. They have played 15 of their last 21 road games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Arkansas has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total. And while the Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Arkansas returns home where they are 8-4 while holding their opponents to just 70.7 PPG on low 40.7% shooting from the field. The Razorbacks have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is in the 150s for this contest given Arkansas’ fast “40 Minutes of Hell” pace. But the Razorbacks have still played six of their last eight games Under the Total — and they are hosting a Bulldogs team that is likely to see their hot shooting disappear in a hostile environment. 25* CBB SEC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (603) and the Arkansas Razorbacks (604). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-28-19 |
TCU v. Texas Tech -5 |
Top |
65-84 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (856) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (855). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (16-4) snapped their three-game losing streak on Saturday with their 67-64 win over Arkansas as a 10-point favorite. TCU (15-4) has won two straight games with their 55-50 win over Florida as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas Tech has the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency mark in the nation. They have not allowed more than 64 points in thirteen straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 65 points in at least two straight games. This is the Red Raiders’ third game since last Tuesday — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing their third game in a week’s span. And while Texas Tech has only covered the point spread once in their last ten games, they have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 home games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Red Raiders stay at home where they are 11-1 this season with an average winning margin of +21.3 PPG. The conventional wisdom regarding this Texas Tech team is that they lack a reliable second scoring option after their superstar sophomore Jarrett Culver. But his supporting cast plays better on their home court — the team had a 51.2% field goal percentage in their win over the Razorbacks on Saturday. The Red Raiders make 49.6% of their shots at home which has translated into 73.3 PPG. They also limit their guests to just 52.0 PPG along with a filthy low 32.7% field goal percent. Texas Tech should also be able to create scoring opportunities in transition against this Horned Frogs team that is 9th in the Big 12 by turning the ball over in 20.8% of their possessions. The Red Raiders are 6th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.0% of their opponent’s possessions. TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. The Horned Frogs win over the Gators on Saturday was preceded by a 65-61 win at home against Texas last Wednesday — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning two straight games by 6 points or less. TCU has played three straight games Under the Total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after playing at least two straight Unders. Now the Horned Frogs go back on the road where they are making only 44.9% of their shots — and they are shooting just 40.1% from the field over their last five games. TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 30 road games with the Total set in the 130 to 134.5 point range — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in those last three situations. This is a bad matchup for this Horned Frogs team coming off their best two wins of the season against Florida and Texas. The Red Raiders hold their opponents to just 56.3 PPG on 35.7% shooting. TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games after fifteen games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 39% of lower — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games against teams that do not allow more than 57 PPG. And while the Horned Frogs make 47.2% of their shots overall with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 40.5%, the Red Raiders have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games against teams who make at least 45% of their shots and who hold their opponents to no better than 42% from the field.
FINAL TAKE: Jamie Dixon has done a great job with the TCU basketball program — but scoring will be very hard to come by in Lubbock against this defensive dynamo that Chris Beard has constructed at Texas Tech. 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Game of the Month with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (856) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (855). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-19 |
UCF v. Memphis -1 |
Top |
57-77 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (834) minus the point(s) versus the Central Florida Knights (833). THE SITUATION: Memphis (12-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Thursday with their 85-76 loss at Temple as a 5-point underdog. Central Florida (15-3) has won their last two games after their 75-50 win at Tulane as a 12-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Memphis should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. The Tigers made only 39.7% of their shots in that game which was the worst offensive performance in their last twelve games. Memphis should shoot much better back at home where they are making 49.1% of their shots which has translated into 90.8 PPG in head coach Penny Hardaway’s fast pace offense. The Tigers are averaging 75.3 possessions per game which is the 6th fastest tempo in the nation (and far above the 68.6 national average for possessions). Memphis returned four starters from last year’s 21-13 team with Hardaway bringing in a nice five-person freshman class led by a rising star in Tyler Harris. This fast pace has contributed to the team leading the American Athletic Conference with a 56.8% shooting percentage inside the arc. The Tigers are 10-1 at home with an average winning margin of +16.0 PPG. Memphis also plays tough defense at home as they have held their visitors to just a 41.7% field goal percentage. The Tigers have also held their last five opponents to a low 41.1% shooting mark. Memphis has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set in the 145 to 149.5 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games as a favorite laying no more than 6 points. Central Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a double-digit win over a conference rival. Furthermore, the Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, UCF has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning at least twelve of their last fifteen games. The Knights go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. Central Florida has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog of no more than 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: This is Memphis’ first opportunity to avenge a 68-84 loss at home to the Knights when they last played back on February 11th. Look for the new-look Tigers under Hardaway to earn the win. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Game of the Month with the Memphis Tigers (834) minus the point(s) versus the Central Florida Knights (833). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-26-19 |
Arkansas v. Texas Tech -9.5 |
Top |
64-67 |
Loss |
-107 |
4 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (700) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (699). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (15-4) has lost three straight games after their 58-45 loss at Kansas State as a 2.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Arkansas (11-7) snapped a four-game losing streak on Wednesday with a 72-60 win over Missouri as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: After a 15-1 start, Texas Tech has lost three straight games. I am chalking this up to just a tough stretch in the challenging Big 12 with their last two games being played in hostile territory. The Red Raiders lost by a 72-62 score at Baylor in their game prior to their contest with the Wildcats with their losing streak beginning with a 4-point loss at home to Iowa State. Metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks all three of those opponents in his top-43 teams in the nation. Texas Tech has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after suffering two straight losses by double-digits on the road. And while the Red Raiders have only covered the point spread once in their last nine games, they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games on their home court after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The conventional wisdom regarding this Texas Tech team is that they lack a credible second scoring threat after their superstar Jared Culver. Returning home to Lubbock will help these secondary scorers — the Red Raiders are making 49.5% of their shots on their home court which has translated into 73.9 PPG. Texas Tech is 10-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +23.0 PPG — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 135 to 139.5 point range. The Red Raiders also need to share the ball more — they only had 7 assists in their loss to the Wildcats. But Kansas State has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 home games after failing to generate at least 9 assists in their last contest. But what makes this Texas Tech team tick is their outstanding play on the defensive end of the court. The Red Raiders lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they hold their visitors to only 50.9 PPG along with a very low 31.8% field goal percentage. Texas Tech is 7th in the nation in forcing turnovers in 23.9% of their opponent’s possessions — and the Razorbacks are 12th in the SEC by turning the ball over in 20.2% of their possessions. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. The Razorbacks have covered the point spread twice in their last eleven games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight road games after failing to cover the point spread in eight of their last ten games. Arkansas has also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games on the road after losing four of their last five games. The Razorbacks are led by 6’10 sophomore Daniel Gafford who has a future in the NBA but has sometimes looked lethargic and disinterested with this team that has ten new players from last year’s NCAA Tournament team. Arkansas struggles to shoot the basketball on the road where they are making 43.6% of their shots. This team will likely struggle with the slow pace that the Red Raiders will attempt to dictate. The Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams outside the SEC.
FINAL TAKE: The Razorbacks score many of their points in transition with their head coach Mike Anderson’s “40 minutes of Hell” approach. But Arkansas will turn the ball over as much as they will force turnovers in this game — and it will be the half-court defense of the Red Raiders that will eventually overwhelm this young Arkansas team playing in a very difficult place to play. 25* CBB Big 12-SEC Challenge Game of the Year with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (700) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (699). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-25-19 |
Michigan v. Indiana +5.5 |
Top |
69-46 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (852) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (851). THE SITUATION: Indiana (12-7) has lost five straight games after their 73-67 loss at Northwestern on Tuesday as a 2-point underdog. Michigan (18-1) bounced-back from their first loss of the season at Wisconsin by defeating Minnesota back in Ann Arbor by a 59-57 score as a 12.5-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Indiana was out-rebounded by a 44 to 29 margin against the Wildcats — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after being out-rebounded by at least 15 boards in their last game. The Hoosiers have been the victim of a brutal stretch of games in the highly-competitive Big Ten conference — each of their last five opponents (Michigan, Maryland, Nebraska, Purdue, Northwestern) ranks in metrics guru Ken Pomeroy’s top-56 ranked teams. Indiana has registered impressive wins against Louisville, Marquette, and Butler who Pomeroy ranks 16th, 33rd, and 44th in the nation. This is a talented team that returned six of the top ten players from last year’s team with second-year head coach Archie Miller bringing in a strong freshman class led by Romeo Langford. Indiana has only covered the point spread once in their last six games — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Now after on the road for four of their last five games against these strong Big Ten teams that are all likely to make the NCAA Tournament, the Hoosiers return home to Bloomington where they are 10-1 with an average winning margin of +18.6 PPG. Indiana is 4th in the nation by making 57.5% of their shots inside the arc — and they are making 54.2% of their shots on their home court. The Hoosiers also tighten things up on defense at home where they are holding their guests to just 60.9 PPG along with a low 39.1% field goal percentage. Indiana has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 home games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage over 80%. Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow win by no more than 3 points against a Big Ten rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. And while the Wolverines have covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Michigan is struggling to score points as of late — they are experiencing difficulties choosing good shots to take while lacking a true go-to scorer. The Wolverines have a nice collection of offensive talent but they are all more comfortable being the second guy. Last year’s group had two experienced veterans who wanted the basketball when it was time to make a basket in Moritz Wagner and the underrated Muhammad-Ali Abdur Rahman. The Wolverines are only making 44.4% of their shots over their last five games. Michigan held the Gophers to just a 40.4% field goal percentage in their win on Tuesday which was the best defensive effort in their last six contests. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games as a favorite laying no more than 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: Indiana will be looking to avenge a 74-63 loss in Ann Arbor as a 9-point underdog back on January 6th. Don’t be surprised if the Hoosiers pull the upset — but take the points for some nice insurance in what should be a close game. 25* CBB Friday FS1 Game of the Month with the Indiana Hoosiers (852) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (851). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-24-19 |
St. Mary's v. BYU +1.5 |
Top |
66-71 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (664) plus the point(s) versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (663). THE SITUATION: BYU (12-9) saw their three-game winning streak on Saturday with their 82-63 loss at San Francisco as a 7-point underdog. Saint Mary’s (13-7) has won four straight games with their 76-59 win over San Diego as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Gaels have covered the point spread in four straight games as well as five of their last six contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And while Saint Mary’s has played their last two games Under the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after playing their last two games Under the Total. This team’s best win this season came in non-conference play when they defeated a New Mexico State team back in November that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy currently ranks as the 60th best team in the nation. The Gaels were 27-4 last year but their lack of a convincing non-conference schedule kept them out of the NCAA Tournament. Five of their top seven players from that team graduated including Jock Landale who had been the leader of this team for years. Now Saint Mary’s goes back on the road where they are 3-5 this season while making just 43.9% of their shots which is far below their 48.9% clip for the season. Playing away from home at McKeon Pavilion detracts from this team’s outside shooting — and this team has not been doing a great job of sharing the basketball. Last year with Landale keying the offense, the Gaels assisted on 54.9% of their field goals which was 104th best in the nation. This season. Saint Mary’s have seen their assist rate on made field goals drop to 42.3% which is 342nd in the nation. The Gaels have dished out only 10 team assists in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the points spread in 8 of their last 13 games are failing to produce at least 12 team assists in two straight contests. Saint Mary’s have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after winning four or five of their last six contests. BYU should bounce-back after their disappointing loss on Saturday as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss on the road. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a loss to a fellow West Coast Conference opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a loss on the road to a conference foe. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in seven of their last nine games — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games while also covering the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home after a point spread loss. The Cougars made only 44.2% of their shots in that game which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games but things were much worse on the defensive end of the court as the Dons’ 63.6% field goal percentage was by far the worst defensive effort of the year. Now this team returns home where they are 9-1 with an average winning margin of +16.2 PPG. BYU should shoot much better tonight back at home where they are scoring 83.9 PPG while making 48.1% of their shots. The Cougars are 10th in the nation by making 56.9% of their shots inside the arc. BYU should also play much better defense as they hold their visitors to just a 39.4% field goal percentage. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: BYU has registered a nice non-conference win over a Utah State team that Pomeroy ranks as the 40th best team in the nation. The Cougars only lost one important contributor from last year’s team that finished 24-11 after losing in the NIT in what was considered a rebuilding year. BYU will have revenge on their mind after losing to the Gaels by an 88-66 score back on January 5th. The Cougars have their best opportunity in years to hop Saint Mary’s in the WCC standings so winning this rematch is very important to David Rose’s basketball team. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the BYU Cougars (664) plus the point(s) versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (663). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-24-19 |
Samford v. Wofford OVER 146.5 |
Top |
106-107 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Samford Bulldogs (673) and the Wofford Terriers (674). THE SITUATION: Samford (12-8) has lost four of their last five games with their 93-87 loss to Mercer as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Wofford (15-4) has won six games in a row with their 59-54 win over Furman as an 8-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Terriers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a victory. Wofford is one of the best mid-majors in the country after returning all five starters and some depth from last year’s team that finished 21-13 with a win over North Carolina. This year’s team lost to North Carolina on opening night of the season by 9 points but they later earned a win over South Carolina. This team uses four guards in their starting lineup that deploys an offense that is highly proficient in making 3s. The Terriers are 28th in the nation by making 38.2% of their 3-point shots — and that number rises to a 39.9% mark when they are playing at home. Wofford averages 88.3 PPG on their home court while making 51.4% of their shots. The Terriers have paled 37 of their last 51 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Wofford has also played 18 of their last 23 home games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have also played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total when laying double-digits. The Terriers made only 38.9% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst offensive effort in their last ten games. Yet over their last five games, the Terriers have made 52.6% of their shots even after that subpar effort. Overall, Wofford ranks 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They should have a field day against this Bulldogs team that has allowed their last five opponents to make 47.5% of their shots. Samford is 8th in the Southern Conference by allowing their conference opponents to make 37.9% of their 3-point shots. The Bulldogs have played a decisive 50 of their last 69 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 16 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, Samford has played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a loss to a conference rival. The Bulldogs tend to play more Overs because they play at a quick pace. They average 16.3 seconds per possession which is the 67th fastest pace in the nation — and that tempo has risen in conference play to 15.9 seconds per possession. Samford has allowed their last five opponents to score at least 76 points — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing at least 75 points in four straight contests. The Bulldogs go back on the road where they have played 5 stage games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Samford has also played 6 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings in Wofford’s gym Over the Total. Expect another high scoring game between these two teams with the Terriers scoring plenty of points in response to Samford’s preferred quick pace. 25* CBB Southern Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Samford Bulldogs (673) and the Wofford Terriers (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-19 |
Missouri v. Arkansas -6.5 |
Top |
60-72 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (822) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (821). THE SITUATION: Arkansas (10-7) has lost four straight games with their 84-67 loss at Ole Miss on Saturday as a 6.5-point underdog. Missouri (10-6) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 66-43 loss at Texas A&M as a 5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAZORBACKS MINUS THE POINTS: Arkansas has suffered through a tough stretch with their last four games being losses against Florida, LSU (in overtime), Tennessee, Mississippi all ranking in metrics guru Ken Pomeroy’s top-40 teams in the nation. The Razorbacks have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss by at least 8 points against a conference rival. Arkansas has allowed at least 84 points in three straight games - -but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 80 points in two straight contests. The Razorbacks have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after losing four straight contests. Head coach Mike Anderson has taken this team to the Big Dance in three of the last four seasons but this season was always going to be a struggle with only three players returning from last year’s team. Anderson has ten new players on his roster with the most exciting being the 6’5 freshman Isaiah Joe. Anderson did an All-SEC player return in 6’11 sophomore Daniel Gafford who can single-handedly keep the Razorbacks competitive in every game they play. Arkansas is 7-4 at home this season but they are outscoring these opponents by +8.5 PPG. The Razorbacks have cord the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range — and this includes them covering the spread in eight of their last twelve games at home with the Total set in that range. As usual, Anderson has his team implementing his “40 minutes of hell” pressure defense — and this group ranks 67th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.1% of their opponent’s possessions. This is an area of vulnerability for the Tigers who have three freshman and a sophomore in their five-man rotation at guard. Missouri ranks 290th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.9% of their possessions — and that number has risen to a 21.9% clip in conference play. The Tigers are due for a letdown as they are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a win by at least 20 points. Injuries have held back this Mizzou program in the first two years of the Cuonzo Martin. Last year, Michael Porter played only one game before not taking the court again with his ankle injury. The plan this year was to run the offense around his brother Jontay Porter but an early ACL/MCL tear in a scrimmage ended his season prematurely as well. The Tigers have a second promising big man in Jeremiah Tilmon but he has not been as comfortable or proficient in passing out of double-teams as the focus of the offensive attack. This has made Mizzou mostly a perimeter team as they are nailing 39.2% of their 3-point shots. But that number drops to a 37.3% mark when playing away from home — and they face a Razorbacks team that ranks 56th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 31.3% mark from behind the arc which drops even lower to a 29.2% mark when they are playing at home in Fayetteville. Missouri makes only 42.8% of their shots on the road with their offense lacking a go-to scorer. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Missouri has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And while the Tigers have played two straight Unders, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after playing two straight games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is a bad matchup for Missouri who has struggled with turnovers in their losses this season — in their six losses they have suffered turnover numbers of 35.7%, 21.9%, 23.4%, 27.1%, 28.6%, and 17.2% in terms of possession percentages. With Arkansas due to play better back at home — where they have defeated Indiana this season, expect the Razorbacks to earn a decisive win. 25* CBB SEC Game of the Month with the Arkansas Razorbacks (822) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (821). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-22-19 |
Central Michigan v. Akron -6.5 |
Top |
67-70 |
Loss |
-104 |
1 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Akron Zips (614) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (613). THE SITUATION: Akron (10-8) has lost three of their last four games with their 68-61 loss at Miami (Ohio) as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Central Michigan (14-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 83-72 loss to Ball State on Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ZIPS MINUS THE POINTS: Akron has failed to cover the point spread in five straight games after their upset loss to the Redhawks — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least three straight games. The Zips are not getting much help from the officials as they have only gotten to the charity stripe 12 and 8 times respectively in their last two games. But Akron has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on their home court after not getting more than 12 attempts at the free throw line in two straight games. The Zips have played three straight games Under the Total — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games at home after playing at least two straight games Under the Total. Akron returns home where they are 8-1 this season with an average winning margin of +18.1 net PPG. The Zips play outstanding defense — they rank 57th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They limit their visitors to just 55.1 PPG on their home court while holding them to only a 35.6% field goal percentage. Akron has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 home games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range — and this tightens to them covering the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. Central Michigan has played two straight games Under the Total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing two straight Unders. The Chippewas go back on the road where they are making only 44.3% of their shots as compared to their 47.3% overall field goal percentage. The Zips have an opponent’s field goal percentage of 40.9% — and Central Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who do not allow their opponents to make more than 42% of their shots. The Chippewas have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 meetings with the Zips — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played at Akron.
FINAL TAKE: Central Michigan did cover the point spread in the last meeting between these teams when they pulled off an 88-86 upset victory over the Zips back on January 8th. The Chippewas have won four more games than the Akron — but the Zips only lost to a loaded Nevada team in their building by 6 points while also losing to Clemson on a neutral court by just 3 points. Look for Akron to avenge that loss with a decisive victory in this rematch. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month is on the Akron Zips (614) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (613). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-21-19 |
Marshall v. Western Kentucky -4.5 |
Top |
59-68 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (862) minus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (861). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (9-9) snapped a three-game losing streak on Saturday with their 72-66 win over Florida Atlantic as a 10.5-point favorite. Marshall (12-6) has won five in a row with their 105-97 win over Florida International as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a win on their home court. In head coach Rick Stansbury I trust who was one of only two head coaches to take his team from outside analytics guru Ken Pomeroy’s top-100 at the start of the season to inside his final top-50 at the close of the season. Western Kentucky was 14-4 in Conference USA play last year before making a run to the Semifinals of the NIT. Stansbury lost three of his top four scorers from that team — and graduate transfer DeSean Murray left this team in early December — but he has done a fine job of incorporating a new batch of players as he continues to add depth to his roster in his third year with the program. Stansbury recruited a five-star freshman in Charles Bassey who has made an immediate impact while sophomores Tavern Hollingsworth and Josh Anderson stepping up into leadership roles and sophomore Marek Nelson’s improvement taking time away from Murray whose decision to leave the program may have related to his concerns overseeing his potential professional prospects decline. These Hilltoppers have pulled off impressive wins at home over Wisconsin and St. Mary’s along with a win on the road versus Arkansas and a neutral court win over West Virginia. They stay at home for the third straight game tonight where they are 5-2 while making 49.6% of their shots. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after playing their last two games at home. The Hilltoppers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 160 to 169.5 point range. This team is clamping things down on the defensive end of the court as they have held their last five opponents to just a 40.8% field goal percentage. But Western Kentucky made only 42.9% of their shots on Saturday against the Owls which was the worst offensive effort in their last eight contests. They should shoot much better tonight against this Thundering Herd team that ranks second-to-last in Conference US play in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking last in conference play by allowing their opponents to make 55.2% of their shots inside the arc and by seeing them drain 40.6% of their 3-pointers. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after winning at least five games in a row. Furthermore, the Thundering Herd has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after scoring at least 80 points in their last contest. Head coach Dan D’Antoni returned six of the top seven scorers from last year’s group that made the NCAA Tournament — but depth is an issue for this team that plays at the 11th fastest tempo in the nation. But Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games where the Total is set in 160s. They are getting outscored by -10.2 net PPG due to their struggles on defense as they allow their home hosts to score 88.0 PPG on 49.5% shooting. The Thundering Herd are aggressive in attempting to force turnovers — but if that fails, they are likely to then be scored on in transition or in the half-court. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky will be looking to avenge a 70-69 loss at Marshall back on January 12th where they were 2.5-point underdogs. The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 3 straight games when attempting to avenge a narrow loss by 3 points or less. 25* CBB Monday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (862) minus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (861). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-17-19 |
Texas-San Antonio v. Middle Tennessee UNDER 144.5 |
Top |
86-89 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (621) and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (622). UTSA (10-7) has won seven straight games with their 76-74 win over North Texas as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Middle Tennessee (3-14) has lost three straight games after their 73-56 loss at Louisiana Tech on Saturday as a 13-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: UTSA has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win against a conference rival. The Road Runners have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. UTSA has held their last five opponents to just a 40.1% field goal percentage. The Road Runners lead Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in four games so far this season — and they rank 105th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall. But UTSA also ranks a low 328th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 45.3%. The Road Runners make just 38.3% of their shots on the road. UTSA has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on their home court. The Road Runners have also played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Middle Tennessee has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Blue Raiders made only four of their ten free throws in that game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after shooting no better than 53% from the charity stripe in their last game. Middle Tennessee struggles to make baskets — they are 339th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 44.0% and the Blue Raiders are 329th in the country in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But this team does hold their visitors to just a 39.3% opponent’s field goal percentage. They have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Middle Tennessee has also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. And in their last 24 games as an underdog, the Blue Raiders have played 15 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams struggle to score baskets — but they are solid on the defensive end of the court (particularly with Middle Tennessee playing at home). These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — expect another lower-scoring game between these two teams. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (621) and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (622). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-17-19 |
James Madison v. Delaware -3.5 |
Top |
69-76 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Delaware Blue Hens (610) minus the points versus the James Madison Dukes (609). James Madison (12-7) had won four in a row before their 71-58 loss at the College of Charleston as a 10.5-point underdog on Saturday. James Madison (9-9) has won two straight games after their 74-65 win over Towson on Saturday as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE HENS MINUS THE POINTS: Delaware shot just 35.9% from the field which was the worst shooting effort for them in their last five games. They also allowed the Cougars to make 51% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last five contests. The Blue Hens should bounce-back with a strong effort as they are 38-16-3 ATS in their last 57 games after a point spread loss — and this includes them covering the point spread in four of their last five games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Delaware has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road where they have failed to score at least 60 points. The Blue Hens have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two of their last three games. They return home where they are 6-3 with an average winning margin of +6.1 PPG. Delaware makes a healthy 48.9% of their shots on their home court while limiting their guests to just a 41.7% field goal percentage. The Blue Hens have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Delaware has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against conference opponents. When this team is on, they are making their 3s as they rank 43rd in the nation with a 37.7% shooting percentage from behind the arc. James Madison has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The Dukes go back on the road where they are just 3-7 with an average losing margin of -8.0 PPG. James Madison scores only 63.5 PPG when playing on the road where they are making just 39.9% of their shots — and they are also allowing their home hosts to make 46.2% of their shots. The Dukes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Lastly, James Madison has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Delaware has been a surprise team in the Colonial Athletic Association — look for them to bounce-back with a decisive victory back on their home court against a James Madison team that is not very good when playing away from home. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Game of the Month with the Delaware Blue Hens (610) minus the points versus the James Madison Dukes (609). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-14-19 |
Florida State v. Pittsburgh UNDER 146 |
Top |
62-75 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (869) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (870). THE SITUATION: Florida State (13-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 80-78 loss to Duke as an 8-point underdog on Saturday. Pittsburgh (11-5) has also lost two of their last three contests with their 86-80 loss at NC State on Saturday as an 11-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Florida State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Additionally, the Seminoles have played 27 of their last 37 games Under the total after a loss by 3 points or less. Now this team goes on the road where they are making only 43.1% of their shots. But this Florida State team plays outstanding defense as they rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Seminoles have held their last five opponents to just a 40.6% field goal percentage. Florida State has played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Under is also 9-3-1 in the Seminoles’ last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Pittsburgh has played 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total — and this includes them playing six straight games Under the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Now the Panthers return home where they have played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total. Pittsburgh has also played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. This team also plays well on the defensive end of the court. They rank 37th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency led by an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.2% which is 13th best in the nation. The Panthers hold their guests to just 65.1 PPG on their home court with a low 38.4% field goal percentage. Pittsburgh has also played 40 of their last 57 games Under the Total in ACC play.
FINAL TAKE: This is an important game for Pittsburgh who are probably on the outside-looking-in right now in earning an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament. Defeating Florida State would be the best win on their resume. Expect this to be a lower-scoring game. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (869) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (870). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-11-19 |
Wright State v. Northern Kentucky -4.5 |
Top |
64-68 |
Loss |
-104 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Northern Kentucky Norse (804) minus the points versus the Wright State Raiders (803). Northern Kentucky (13-4) has won five of their last six games with their 95-73 win at Detroit last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. Wright State (8-9) looks to build off their 89-73 win at Oakland last Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NORSE MINUS THE POINTS: Northern Kentucky dominated the Titans — they made 57.1% of their shots in that game while limiting them to just a 42.6% field goal percentage. The Norse have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after making at least 55% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last games after a contests where they shot at last 57% from the field while holding their opponent to no better than a 43% field goal percentage. Furthermore, Northern Kentucky has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games after a double-digit win — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. Head coach John Brannen has built one of the strongest programs in the Horizon League — the Norse represented the conference in the NCAA Tournament two years but just missed out last year to this Wright State team last year after losing to them twice during the regular season (two of their three Horizon League regular season losses) before being relegated to the NIT after getting upset as the top seed in the conference tournament to Cleveland State. Northern Kentucky has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against Horizon League opponents. Now they return home where they are a perfect 10-0 with an average winning margin of +20.0 PPG. The Norse are making 48% of their shots at home while limiting their visitors to just 60.6 PPG on 37.7% shooting. Northern Kentucky has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Wright State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a game where they scored at least 85 points. The Raiders like to create pressure as they rank 2nd in the Horizon by forcing turnovers in 21.3% of their opponent’s possessions — but they are facing a Norse team that only turns it over in 17.0% of their possessions this season which ranks 68th in the country. This is Wright State’s third straight game on the road where they are just 1-7 with an average losing margin of -7.5 PPG. They allowing their home hosts to make 51.8% of their shots which is an ominous proposition against a Northern Kentucky team that leads the Horizon League with both a 61.7% shooting percentage inside the arc and a 60.2% effective field goal percentage. The Raiders will have difficulties keeping up as they make only 43% of their shots on the road — and they have a low 40.5% field goal percentage over their last five games. Wright State has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 road games with the Total set in the 135-139.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Northern Kentucky was upset as a double-digit favorite at home last January in the first meeting between these two teams. Defeating the Raiders is very important to this team that looks to win the Horizon League and gets back to the Big Dance. 25* CBB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Month is on the Northern Kentucky Norse (804) minus the points versus the Wright State Raiders (803). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-10-19 |
South Alabama v. Arkansas State -2 |
Top |
65-66 |
Loss |
-106 |
1 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (638) minus the points versus the South Alabama Jaguars (637). THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (7-8) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 85-75 loss at UL-Monroe as a 7.5-point underdog. South Alabama (9-6) has won five of their last six games with their 84-77 win over Coast Carolina as a 1-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED WOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Arkansas State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss to a Sun Belt Conference rival. The Red Wolves have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread setback. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Arkansas State returns home to Jonesboro where they are 5-0 this season while scoring 81.0 PPG and outscoring their opponents by +16.4 PPG. The Red Wolves flex their muscles on defense when playing at home as they hold their visitors to host 65.4 PPG along with only a 33.8% field goal percentage. Arkansas State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Red Wolves have also covered the point spread in a decisive 41 of their last 65 home games after playing their last two games on the road. Arkansas State should control the offensive glass in this contest — they pull down 33.5% of their missed shots which ranks 113th in the nation. The Jaguars are very vulnerable to teams that hit the boards when they have the basketball — they are allowing their opponents to rebound 33.2% of their missed shots which is 332nd worst in the country. South Alabama likes to shoot 3s with 43.6% of their field goal attempts coming from behind the arc. The Jaguars are making a healthy 38.6% of these shots — but the Red Wolves defense the perimeter well by limiting their opponents to just a 32.6% shooting mark from the 3-point line which is 115th best in the country. Arkansas State is very stingy in defending the arc when playing at home — they hold their visitors to just a 23.8% mark from behind the arc. South Alabama has played their last four boarded games Over the Total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing at least three straight Overs. Now after playing their last six games on the road, the Jaguars go back on the road for the first time since December 5th. South Alabama is 0-5 on the road this year where they are being outscored by -17.5 PPG. They are shooting just 40.5% from the field away from home which is translating into just 61.7 PPG. They are also allowing their home hosts to make 50.2% of their shots. The Jaguars are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread on the road after playing their last three games at home.
FINAL TAKE: These are two middling teams in the Sun Belt — but the Jaguars winning record is skewed with a lack of games away from home. Arkansas State matches up well and plays much better on their home court. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month with the Arkansas State Red Wolves (638) minus the points versus the South Alabama Jaguars (637). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-09-19 |
Marquette v. Creighton -3 |
Top |
106-104 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Creighton Bluejays (800) minus the points versus the Marquette Golden Panthers (799). Creighton (10-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 84-69 loss at Butler as a 4.5-point underdog. Marquette (12-3) has won nine of their last ten games after their 70-52 win over Xavier on Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUEJAYS MINUS THE POINTS: Creighton has bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home after a double-digit loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after playing a game on the road as an underdog. Furthermore, the Bluejays have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road to a conference rival. And in their last 8 games at home after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. Head coach Greg McDermott’s team is not playing very good defense — but this team can shoot the rock. Creighton is 11th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are 3rd in the nation in effective field goal percentage with a 60.0% mark due to their strong 3-point shooting as they make 42.0% of their 3-point shooting which is 5th best in the nation. Now the Bluejays return home where they are 6-2 this season with an average winning margin of +16.3 PPG. Creighton scores 86.0 PPG on their home court while making 53.3% of their shots along with an incredible 48.6% of their 3-pointers. In the Bluejays’ defense, their play on the defensive end of the court is much better at home as they hold their visitors to just a 43.3% field goal percentage. Creighton has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games again teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Marquette may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a win by at least 15 points. And while the Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Marquette held the Musketeers to just a 31.5% field goal percentage which was their second-best defensive effort of the season. But the Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games after holding their last opponent to no better than a 33% field goal percentage. Now this team goes back on the road for just the fifth time this season. Marquette has lost both their true road games this year — they are 1-3 overall away from home playing in road or neutral court contests while getting outscored by -12.3 PPG in these contests. The Golden Eagles make just 41.4% of their shots away from home. Even worse, Marquette allows their opponents to make 50% of their shots including 41.9% of their 3-pointers when playing away from home — and this has translated into 84.0 PPG. The Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Marquette swept the two-games between these two teams last season. Look for Creighton to flex their shooting muscles back on their home court with the opportunity to avenge those two losses last year. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Creighton Bluejays (800) minus the points versus the Marquette Golden Panthers (799). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-08-19 |
Iowa State v. Baylor +2.5 |
Top |
70-73 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (606) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (605). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (12-2) has won five straight games after their 77-60 win over Kansas as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Baylor (8-5) looks to bounce-back from their 85-81 loss at TCU as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cyclones were the toast of the College Basketball punditry world on Saturday after their huge win over the Jayhawks — but they may be due for a letdown now. This is a team that was just 13-18 last season so head coach Steve Promm’s core group of players are not experienced at sustaining success. Iowa State benefited from Bill Self’s decision to not use Udoka Azubuike after he sprained his wrist the day before — that left the Jayhawks without much size and neutralized a vulnerability that the Cyclones had in that matchup with four of their starters in the 6’4 to 6’6 height range. Iowa State also nailed 13 of their 25 shots from behind the arc in that game including making 9 of 13 3-pointers in the second-half of that game. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in each of their last three games while laying points in all three of those contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread as the favorite in at least three straight games. Iowa State now goes on the road where they are making only 44.4% of their shots as compared to their 48.3% field goal percentage overall. The Cyclones only make 32.9% of their 3-pointers when playing on the road which is far below their 36.1% field goal percentage. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Cyclones have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 road games when laying no more than 3 points. Baylor has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. The Bears have covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three straight contests. Baylor was 19-15 last year after losing in the second round in the NIT but they lost the top four scorers from that team. However, last year was the first time that the Bears did not make the Big Dance so a rebuild may be in order for Scott Drew who brought in two impact transfers and two four-star freshman to the mix this season. 6’9 freshman Matthew Mayer and Yale graduate transfer Makai Mason have played very well for this team while senior King McClure has stepped up his game as the team’s top returning scorer from last year. Baylor’s length should give the Cyclones problems tonight. They are 3rd in the nation by blocking their opponent’s shots in 17.7% of their attempts — and they also rank 16th in the country by pulling down 37.1% of their missed shots. The Bears return home where they are 6-2 this season with an average winning margin of +14.7 PPG. Drew once again has his team playing very good on the defensive end of the court. Baylor holds their opponents to just 58.2 PPG when playing at home while limiting their visitors to just a 38.3% field goal percentage. The Bears have also held their last five opponents to just 36.6% shooting. Baylor has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Iowa State is due for a letdown after their big win over Kansas — and this Baylor team is very tough when playing at home in Waco. 25* CBB Big 12 Underdog of the Month with Baylor Bears (606) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (605). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-04-19 |
Ball State v. Toledo OVER 151.5 |
Top |
79-64 |
Loss |
-108 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (805) and the Toledo Rockets (806). Ball State (9-4) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 116-57 win over Delaware State last Saturday as a 29.5-point favorite. Toledo (12-1) looks to build off their 77-45 win over Penn on Saturday as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Ball State has also played 7 straight games on the road Over the Total after a double-digit win on their home court. The Cardinals made 55.7% of their shots in that game which was the sixth time in their last seven games where they shot at least 50.9% from the field. Ball State has played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after making at least 55% of their shots. This is a veteran team with four returning starters along with three impact transfers from last year’s team that finished 19-13. The Cardinals are 39th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while ranking 11th in the country with an effective field goal percentage of 57.3%. Ball State makes 38.2% of their 3-point shots which is the 36th best mark in the nation. They go on the road where they are making 49.2% of their shots while scoring 76.0 PPG and allowing 77.0 PPG. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Cardinals have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Toledo has played 26 of their last 38 home games Over the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. The Rockets are also an explosive offensive team that ranks 42nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 16th in the nation with a 3-point field goal percentage of 39.8%. Toledo stays at home where they are 7-0 this season while scoring 86.7 PPG and making 47.3% of their shots. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 35 of their last 54 home games Over the Total as the favorite laying no more than 6 points. Furthermore, the Rockets have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Coincidentally, both these teams are coming off their best defensive performances of the season with Ball State and Toledo holding their last opponent to just 30.1% and 30.5% field goal percentages. These two teams have played 14 of their last 20 meetings Over the Total. Expect a higher-scoring game between these teams that will be competing to with the Mid-American Conference championship. 25* CBB Friday CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (805) and the Toledo Rockets (806). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-18 |
Northern Colorado v. Portland State OVER 155 |
Top |
73-60 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 5:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Northern Colorado Bears (763) and the Portland State Vikings (764). THE SITUATION: Northern Colorado (7-5) snapped a four-game losing streak on Saturday with their 70-65 victory at Sacramento State as a 2-point favorite. Portland State (5-6) has lost three straight games with their 76-71 loss to Cal-State Bakersfield as a 1-point favorite back on December 20th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Northern Colorado has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Over their last five games, the Bears are scoring a robust 88.6 PPG while making 51% of their shots from the field. But now this team stays on the road where they are allowing their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots this season. Northern Colorado has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing on the road. Portland State has played 9 straight games Over the Total after a loss on their home court — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after an upset loss at home. They stay at home for this contest where they are scoring 89.2 PPG while making 46.9% of their shots which is well-above their 41.9% shooting clip overall (mental note: be on the lookout to fade this team in their conference road games). If and when the Vikings miss their shots, there is a very good chance they will get a second-chance scoring opportunity since they lead the nation by pulling down 44.2% of their missed shots. Offensive rebounds should be easy to come by facing this Bears team that allows their opponents to rebound 27.4% of their missed shots which ranks 122nd in the nation. Portland State has not covered the point spread in three straight games. The Vikings have played 24 of their last 33 home games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in three straight contests. Additionally, while Portland State has allowed their last four opponents to make at least 47.3% of their shots (as they sacrifice transition defense for crashing the offensive glass), they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing their last four opponents to make at least 47% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: These are two defensively-challenged teams who rank 214th and 267 in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In the wild-wild-west of the Big Sky conference, expect this game to be another higher-scoring game between these two teams. 25* CBB Big Sky Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Northern Colorado Bears (763) and the Portland State Vikings (764). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-18 |
St. John's v. Seton Hall -3 |
Top |
74-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Seton Hall Pirates (650) minus the points versus the St. John’s Red Storm (649). THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (9-3) has five straight games after their 78-74 upset win at Maryland last Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog. St. John’s (12-0) remained undefeated this season last week with their 104-82 win over Sacred Heart as a 20-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES MINUS THE POINTS: The Red Storm completed the fall non-conference schedule last year with a 10-2 mark before promptly losing their first eleven games in Big East play — so let’s slow our roll with getting overly excited about the return of this program. Head coach Chris Mullin has embraced a soft non-conference schedule as their most challenging games were either against VCU or Georgia Tech who both are outside Ken Pomeroy’s top 72 teams in the nation as of this writing. There is optimism in this basketball program with a potential first-round NBA draftee in Shamorie Ponds being joined by Auburn transfer Mustapha Heron who was granted immediate eligibility to play with this team this fall. But the team is missing some beef in the middle with 6’9 Sedee Keita out another couple weeks with his knee injury. The Red Storm may be rusty in this game as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with five or six days of rest. St. John’s has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after playing three straight games against non-conference opponents. The Red Storm have scored at least 86 points in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after scoring at least 80 points in two straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after winning at least three in a row. Now this team goes on the road for just the fourth time this season to play in just their second true road game. St. John’s has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 trips to Seton Hall. The Red Storm like to create pressure on the basketball as they are 32nd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.8% of their opponent’s possessions — but they are facing a Pirates team that is 10th in the nation by only turning the ball over in 15.1% of their possessions. Seton Hall has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread victory. And while the Pirates have only covered the point spread twice in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Seton Hall has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with five or six of their last seven days of rest. The Pirates have made the NCAA Tournament in three straight seasons and have added an influx of transfers to keep them in the mix to go to the Big Dance again this season. They have played a tough non-conference schedule that included nice wins over the Terrapins and Kentucky who rank in Pomeroy’s Top-50 while losing to top-100 Pomeroy teams in Nebraska, St. Louis and Louisville. Seton Hall has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They return home where they are holding their opponents to just a 38.9% field goal percentage — and this stout defensive play has helped them go 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. This team likes to get to the free throw line as they have a 39.4% Free Throw Attempt to Field Goal Attempt ratio which is 59th in the nation — and the Red Storm are vulnerable here as they rank 278th in the nation with an opponent’s FTA/FGA ratio of 36.6%. Lastly, the Pirates have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against Big East foes.
FINAL TAKE: Look for Seton Hall’s home court advantage to expose and overwhelm this St. John’s team. 25* CBB Big East Game of the Month with the Seton Hall Pirates (650) minus the points versus the St. John’s Red Storm (649). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-18 |
Texas-Arlington v. Texas UNDER 136 |
Top |
56-76 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UT-Arlington Mavericks (817) and the Texas Longhorns (818). THE SITUATION: UT-Arlington (4-8) snapped their seven-game losing streak last Friday with their 75-70 win at Cal-Poly SLO in a pick ‘em contest. Texas (7-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Friday in a 71-65 upset loss to Providence as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns allowed the Friars to make 45.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them in their last five games. This Texas team is playing outstanding defense for head coach Shaka Smart as they rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Longhorns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. This team stays at home where they are holding their opponents to just 62.2 PPG while limiting these visitors to only a 38.1% field goal percentage. Texas has played 7 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 44 of their last 60 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Longhorns are heavy favorites in this game which is a good sign for the Under. Texas has played 7 straight games Under the Total as a double-digit favorite — and they have also played 18 of their last 24 home games Under the Total when laying 18.5 to 24 points. The Longhorns have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. UT-Arlington has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Mavericks made only 39.7% of their shots in their victory last week which is concerning since they made only 26.8% of their shots in their previous game against Gonzaga. UT-Arlington ranks 303rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Mavericks do play solid defense as they rank 156th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which is above average — and they will be playing a Longhorns team that ranks just 100th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. UT-Arlington stays on the road where they are scoring just 59.7 PPG with a low 37.1% field goal percentage. The Mavericks have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home field. Additionally, UT-Arlington has played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road as a double-digit underdog — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: UT-Arlington is going to struggle to score points in this game — but this Longhorns team is not equipped to put up a bunch of points. Texas has scored more than 78 points three times this season. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UT-Arlington Mavericks (817) and the Texas Longhorns (818). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-11-18 |
Colorado v. New Mexico +5 |
Top |
78-75 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New Mexico Lobos (606) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (605). THE SITUATION: New Mexico (4-3) looks to bounce-back from an 85-60 loss on Friday to Saint Mary’s as an 8.5-point underdog in the Hall of Fame Classic that was played at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. Colorado (7-1) has won five straight games with their 84-72 win over Illinois-Chicago last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LOBOS PLUS THE POINTS: New Mexico should bounce-back with a strong effort — they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Lobos played their worst game of the season on Friday. They allowed the Gaels to make 60% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. They also made only 34.8% of their shots which was the second-worst offensive performance to the 28.1% field goal percentage they endured in their previous game which was a 100-65 loss at New Mexico State last Tuesday. Not only was that a rematch from Lobos victory in Albuquerque from last month between these two in-state rivals but the Aggies became particularly fired up after the two teams got into some fisticuffs prior to the game. Those results were ugly and the actions of New Mexico’s third-leading scorer, Corey Manigault, compelled head coach Peter Weir to suspend the player indefinitely. I did not get the memo about that impending suspension last Friday — and Manigault’s status for tonight remains in doubt. We need to assume that Manigault does not play — yet I still expect the Lobos to play much better now back at home in the Pit for the first time since November 24th. New Mexico has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after suffering two straight losses by at least 10 points. And while the Lobos have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Weir did an outstanding job with the Lobos last year as he took over a program with low expectations and guided them to a 12-6 record in the Mountain West Conference. While four starters departed from that team, Weir role players from last year ready to take on bigger roles along with an influx of transfers including a former five-star recruit from UConn in Vance Jackson. Playing back at home should certainly help the offense as they are making 51.1% of their shots in their three previous home games this season. The Lobos are 40th in the nation by making 38.8% of their shots from behind the arc — and they are making 50% of their 3-pointers at home. New Mexico is also 10th in the nation with a Free-Throw-Attempt to Field-Goal-Attempt ratio of 48.9% — and they should get more whistles back in Albuquerque. Furthermore, the Lobos have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when the Total is set at least at 160. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they are just 13-28-1 ATS in their last 42 games after a straight-up win. Their victory over the Ramblers came on the heels of an 82-58 win over South Dakota — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning their last two games by at least double-digits. Despite the nice start, this team seems to be moving in the wrong direction under head coach Tad Boyle. The team did not make a postseason tournament last season for the first time in the eight years he has been with the program. Boyle started three freshmen last year which raised hopes for this year’s team — but seven-footer Dallas Walton has suffered a season-ending ACL injury to dampen expectations. We want to identify teams with strong home court advantages who have padded their non-conference schedule with home games at this part of the season — and this is an apt description of this Colorado team that often catches teams unprepared to handle the high altitude in Boulder. But the Buffaloes are 19-41-1 ATS in their last 61 games on the road — and they are also 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Colorado goes back on for just the third time this season and for the first time since November 24th after playing their last four games at home. The Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after playing at least three previous games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after a straight-up win.
FINAL TAKE: Expect for Weir to have his team ready to play tonight back at home. While Colorado won’t mind the altitude in the ABQ, the Pit is a difficult place to play. Expect a close game. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the New Mexico Lobos (606) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (605). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-07-18 |
New Mexico +9 v. St. Mary's |
Top |
60-85 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New Mexico Lobos (525) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (526). THE SITUATION: New Mexico (4-2) looks to bounce-back from their 100-65 loss at in-state rival New Mexico State as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Saint Mary’s (5-4) has won two straight games with their 93-61 win over Bethune Cookman as a 19.5-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LOBOS PLUS THE POINTS: This was the worst game of the season for New Mexico which was a rematch of their 98-94 loss to the Aggies last month in Albuquerque. Perhaps that New Mexico State team was particularly motivated to make a statement against their former head coaches Paul Weir who left the program for New Mexico after the 2016-17 season. Weir did an outstanding job with the Lobos last year as he took over a program with low expectations and guided them to a 12-6 record in the Mountain West Conference. While four starters departed from that team, Weir role players from last year ready to take on bigger roles along with an influx of transfers including a former five-star recruit from UConn in Vance Jackson who is scoring 13.3 PPG and junior college transfer Corey Manigault who is adding 12.8 PPG. Anthony Mathis scored 12.7 PPG off the bench last year and now leads the team in scoring this season by averaging 15.7 PPG. That bad loss to New Mexico State presents Weir an ideal coaching opportunity for what will be a captive audience as the team heads to Los Angeles to play in this Hall of Fame Classic tournament. As it is, the Lobos have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss by at least 20 points in their last game. New Mexico endured their worst shooting performance of the season with a 28.1% field goal percentage against the Aggies on Tuesday — but the Lobos have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after failing to make more than 33% of their shots. New Mexico is 11th in the nation by making 42.7% of their 3-point shots. This team also gets to the free point line as they also rank 3rd in the nation with a Free Throw Attempt to Field Goal Attempt ratio of 53.7%. The Lobos have also allowed at least 75 points in all six of their games this season — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 75 points in four straight games. And while New Mexico has only covered the point spread twice in their six games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Saint Mary’s may be due for a letdown after their easy win on Tuesday. The Gaels have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 30 points in their last game. This is this team’s third game since Saturday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing their third game in a week. And while Saint Mary’s have shot at least 50% from the field in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after making at least 50% of their shots in three straight games. Now they travel away from home for just the fourth time this season — and they see their field goal percentage plummet to a 37.1% mark on the road which is miles away from their 48.1% overall mark for the season. The Gaels have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. Randy Bennett’s team is in rebuilding mode after losing five of their top seven starters from last year’s team that only lost four games all season. The biggest loss was All-American big man Jock Landale who starred for the team for the previous three seasons. Bennett has brought in a handful of new players but this appears to be a program in decline when considering they have already lost to Utah State, Mississippi State, Harvard, and UC-Irvine. Saint Mary’s have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams from the Mountain West Conference — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Saint Mary’s also played New Mexico State earlier this season who they handed a 73-58 loss to in their gym three weeks ago. That should only add more bulletin board material for Weir to get his team ready to play after being humiliated by the Aggies earlier this week. Expect a close game with this being played on a neutral court at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. 25* CBB Hall of Fame Classic Game of the Year with the New Mexico Lobos (525) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-06-18 |
Maryland v. Purdue -6.5 |
Top |
60-62 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (708) minus the points versus the Maryland Terrapins (707). THE SITUATION: Purdue (5-3) has lost two straight as well as three of their last four games after their 76-57 loss at Michigan last Saturday as a 6.5-point underdog. Maryland (7-1) enters this game coming off a 66-59 win over Penn State last Saturday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Purdue has been the underdog in their last two games — so those were not bad losses. In fact, their three losses to Florida State, Virginia Tech and the Wolverines were all to teams that currently rank in Ken Pomeroy’s top sixteen teams in his advanced metrics rankings system. Led by a returning All-American in Carsen Edwards, this Boilermakers’ team remains a talented group of players that remain capable although not quite as good as the one that lost to Texas Tech in the Sweet 16 last season (after losing their star seven-footer Isaac Haas to injury in the NCAA Tournament). This year’s team remains an elite offensive team under head coach Matt Painter as they rank 8th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They gave covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Boilermakers have allowed 44 points in the first half in each of their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 40 first-half points in two straight games. Purdue’s last three games have all finished below the number — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing three straight Unders. The Boilermakers return home where they are a perfect 3-0 this season with an average winning margin of +26.7 PPG due to them scoring 86.0 PPG on 47.3% shooting from the field. Purdue has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games in the month of December. Maryland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win under head coach Mark Turgeon — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss. The Terrapins missed the Big Dance last season with a disappointing 19-13 record — and they declined to play in a second-tier postseason tournament. Turgeon returned three starters from that team with the hopes being that a big freshman class of six players would jumpstart the program back into the NCAA Tournament. Maryland breezed through their first six games with Marshall being the biggest challenge before losing to Virginia in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge by 5 points at home before rebounding with that win over the Nittany Lions. Perhaps the biggest challenge for this team is to go on the road away from College Park for just the second time this season. After playing at Navy, this will be just the second collegiate game in a hostile environment for freshman Eric Ayala, Jalen Smith, Serrel Smith and Aaron Wiggins who all play critical roles with this team. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 road games with the Total set in the 140-149.5 point range. A vulnerability for this team is that they are turning the ball over in 20.2% of their possessions that have mostly been on their home court — that is the 229th worst mark in the nation. This proclivity to turn the ball over will likely worsen on the road — and the Boilermakers are forcing turnovers in 20.6% of their opponent’s possessions. And while the Terrapins have made at least 48.9% of their shots in each of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after making at least 47% of their shots in three straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Purdue returns home where they need to pick up a win after a challenging schedule to start the season. Look for them to expose this Terrapins team whose record hides a sweetheart early schedule. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Purdue Boilermakers (708) minus the points versus the Maryland Terrapins (707). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-18 |
Ohio State v. Illinois UNDER 144 |
Top |
77-67 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (529) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (530). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (7-1) enters this game coming off their 79-59 win over Minnesota as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Illinois (2-6) has lost their last two games with their 75-60 loss at Nebraska as a 13-point underdog at Nebraska.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buckeyes have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Ohio State has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This team plays excellent defense for head coach Chris Holtmann as they rank 21st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank 10th in the country by holding their opponents to just a 42.2% effective field goal percentage — and opponents are shooting only 37.2% from the field against them overall. This game is being played on a neutral court in the Chicago Bulls’ United Center. The Buckeyes are scoring only 66.5 PPG with a 45.1% field goal percentage in their two games away from Columbus so far this season. Those numbers are far below their 78.4 PPG and 48.3 % shooting marks for the season. Ohio State has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. Illinois has seen the Under go 20-8-1 in their last 29 games after a straight-up win. Brad Underwood’s team is launching plenty of shots — they have attempted 11 and 14 more shots than their opponents over their last two games. The Illini have then played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after shooting at least 10 more times than their opponent in two straight games. Illinois has played five of their games away from Champagne this season — and they are averaging only 70.8 PPG while making only 40.6% of their shots which is far below their 77.4 PPG scoring average for the season along with their 44.9% field goal percentage for the year. The Illini have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em on a neutral court. Illinois has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 encounters Under the Total. With this game being played in an unfamiliar environment for both teams, expect another lower-scoring game. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (529) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-28-18 |
North Carolina v. Michigan -3 |
Top |
67-84 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (762) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (761). THE SITUATION: Michigan (6-0) remained undefeated this season with their 83-55 win over UT-Chattanooga last Friday as a 32.5-point favorite. North Carolina (6-1) comes off a 94-78 win over UCLA last Friday in the consolation match of the Las Vegas Invitational.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game — and they will be hard-pressed to approach that number tonight. Michigan is the top-rated defensive basketball team in the nation in terms of Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They limited the defending national champions, Villanova, to just 46 points despite that game being played on the Wildcats’ home court. This is a talented Tar Heels team that returns three starters from last year’s team that lost in the Round of 32 in last year’s NCAA Tournament to Texas A&M. Head coach Roy Williams has plenty of talent — including his best-recruiting class in years — but he is still working out just how deep he wants his bench to go when facing elite competition. The Tar Heels lost by a 92-89 score to Texas in Las Vegas in a game where they turned the ball over 17 times which accounted for 21.2% of their possessions. Now they face Wolverines team that forces turnovers in 21.8% of their opponent’s possessions (63rd in the nation) despite rarely deploying full-court pressure. Michigan’s Xavier Simpson is a nightmare to play against as he played a critical role in their run to the NCAA Championship Game last season. North Carolina has a five-star blue-chipper at point guard in Coby White — but the freshman has yet to face a defender as fierce as Simpson. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. And in their last 7 games as an underdog, North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games. Michigan also leads the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of just 36.9%. Coincidentally, it was the Wolverines’ 86-71 loss to the Tar Heels last year that formed the basis of their dramatic improvement on defense. Assistant coach Luke Yaklich is credited as the architect for the defensive adjustments that really began to take shape after that embarrassing loss to North Carolina in last year’s ACC-Big Ten Challenge contest for both these teams. There are a number of subtle changes that occurred after that contest — but perhaps the most important became the eventual decision by head coach John Beilein to commit to Simpson as his starting point guard given how disruptive he was on the defensive end of the court. Michigan is 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Wolverines have held their last two opponents to just 28.1% and 36.1% shooting from the field — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing their last two opponents to make at least 37% of their shots. Michigan is 3-0 at home this year with an average winning margin of +22.0 PPG as they hold their visitors to just 45.3 PPG on low 32.6% shooting. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Michigan is also an impressive 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 games gains teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Beilein’s acumen as an offensive coach has been forgotten a bit given the startling improvement on defense to the elite teams in college basketball. If the Wolverines are hitting their shots as they did against Villanova (or Texas A&M in the Sweet 16 last year), they will blow out their opponents. But now their defense will keep them competitive in all their games. They will be very motivated to avenge their loss to the Tar Heels last year who no longer have their All-American point guard in Joel Barry from last year’s team that stalled in March. 25* CBB ACC-Big Ten Challenge Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (762) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (761). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-18 |
Auburn v. Arizona UNDER 152.5 |
Top |
73-57 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (577) and the Arizona Wildcats (578). THE SITUATION: Auburn (4-1) lost in the Semifinals of the Maui Invitational last night by a 78-72 score to Duke as 11-point underdogs. Arizona (4-1) then lost in the Semifinals of this tournament to Gonzaga by a 91-74 score as an 11-point underdog as well.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats made only 41.2% of their shots against the Bulldogs. 3-point shooting is an issue for this team as I flagged yesterday in the Report taking Gonzaga. Arizona makes only 30.4% of their 3-point shots which ranks 266th in the nation — and that is exactly what they shot last night by making only 7 of their 23 shots (30.4%) from behind the arc. While this subpar 3-point shooting has been consistent, expect the Wildcats to play better on the defensive end of the court after Gonzaga made 53.1% of their shots. That was Arizona’s worst defensive effort of this young season — but they are still holding their opponents to just a 39.9% field goal percentage for the season. The Wildcats have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing no more than 90 points in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Wildcats’ last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage below 60% — and the Under is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against teams outside the Pac-12. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral court, the Under is 3-1-1. Auburn held Duke to a 44.4% field goal percentage which was the worst defensive performance in their last three games. The Tigers rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Bruce Pearl will want his team to commit fewer personal fouls after being whistled for 24 fouls against the Blue Devils. Auburn was called for 23 personal fouls the previous day in their opening round game against Xavier — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after being whistled for at least 22 fouls in two straight games. The Tigers have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. And in their last 6 games played on a neutral court, the game finished Under the Total 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are playing their third game in three days — so fatigue might be a factor. Both Pearl and Sean Miller want their teams to have their defense serve as the foundation of their team play — so expect intensity on that end of the court to be a priority for both teams in this consolation game. 25* CBB Maui Invitational Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (577) and the Arizona Wildcats (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-20-18 |
Arizona v. Gonzaga -10 |
Top |
74-91 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (748) minus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (747). THE SITUATION: Arizona (4-0) reached the Semifinals of the Maui Invitational with their 71-66 win over Iowa State last night as a 1.5-point favorite. Gonzaga (4-0) matched that achievement by defeating Illinois by an 84-78 score last night as a 15.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats are a college basketball team in transition. For starters, they lost all five starters from last year’s team — and that includes two NBA players in DeAndre Ayton and Allonzo Trier. The team is also under intense scrutiny from the NCAA regarding alleged recruiting violations by head coach Sean Miller. Arizona defeated a depleted Cyclones team last night who were missing four players including two starters. They are only making 30.3% of their shots from behind the arc which ranks 259th in the nation — and not being able to make 3s against this powerhouse Gonzaga scoring machine will spell trouble for them. As it is, the Wildcats are just 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games when playing their second game in three days. The Wildcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the West Coast Conference. Gonzaga has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when playing their second game in three days. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against Pac-12 opponents. This team is playing at a fast pace — they are averaging only 13.5 seconds per possession which is the 5th fastest rate in the nation and almost three seconds faster than their 16.2 seconds per possession rate last year. Gonzaga is also ranked 5th in the nation with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 116.2. The Bulldogs had scored at least 93 points in three straight games before last night — and all three of those wins were by at least 23 points. Gonzaga has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. This team is without forward Killian Tillie who is out until January with an ankle injury but they have an emerging star at that position in Rui Hamchimura.
FINAL TAKE: Gonzaga is a legitimate contender to win the national championship this year — and games like this are important in building their resume for seeding in that tournament since they play in a middling mid-major conference. Expect a strong effort from the Bulldogs tonight which will likely set up a finals showdown with Duke. 25* CBB Maui Invitational Game of the Year is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs (748) minus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (747). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-02-18 |
Michigan +7 v. Villanova |
Top |
62-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
24 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (601) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (602). I have joked that they may cancel the game on Monday since it seems as if Villanova has already been coronated as National Champion after easily winning what many dubbed the de-facto championship game against Kansas. If the Wildcats come close to going 13 of 26 from behind the arc against the Wolverines in the first-half like they did against the Jayhawks, then they will be crowned champion. Then again, if Maryland-Baltimore County goes 13 of 26 from downtown, they would likely defeat even this Villanova team. Successful handicapping over the long-term is about maintaining perspective — so here are some things to keep in mind. The Wildcats 3-point shooting quickly regressed back to their mean in the second-half as they made only 5 of their 14 (35.7%) shots from 3-point land. And while Kansas and Michigan hold their opponents to just a 33.3% and 33.0% shooting percentage from the 3-point line, this Wolverines team does a much better job in contesting these shots. Michigan (33-7) ranks 5th in the nation with their opponents taking only 29.8% of their shots from the field from downtown which is far lower than Kansas’ 39.1% 3-point attempt to field goal attempt ratio. The Jayhawks simply did not execute on defense in the opening moments of that game — and that combined with Villanova’s Omari Spellman exposing Kansas big man Udoka Azubuike out on the perimeter. It will be much harder to do that against Michigan who have already played three wars against a Purdue team that has a similar offensive profile as this Wildcats team. Mo Wagner is much more mobile than Azubuike which will help his defensive assignment against Spellman. So while Villanova will cover the point spread if they shoot 50% from 3-point land, there is simply plenty of reasons to conclude that was an outlier performance. Remember, while the Wildcats scored at a 1.34 Points-Per-Possession rate on Saturday, it remains Michigan who had the most explosive offensive effort in this tournament when they scored at a 1.38 PPP rate against Texas A&M in the Sweet 16. And if the Wolverines approach making 50% of their 3-point shots, they will most likely be cutting down the nets. The potential Villanova emotional letdown is compounded by playing an outstanding defensive team with the Wolverines now ranking 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency — and defense is more consistent than 3-point shooting from game-to-game. Michigan is an eye-popping 14-3-3 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They swept a Michigan State team that many had also coronated as the inevitable National Champion — and that Purdue team they played three times with a healthy Isaac Haas that I thought might have been the best team in the country. John Beilein’s complicated offense is very difficult to prepare for with a short turnaround in tournament action. And while the Wolverines have not been an underdog since the Big Ten Tournament when the oddsmakers expected the Spartans and Boilermakers to defeat them, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog. Furthermore, I have seen at least one advanced analytics projection site that project this to be a 2-point game based off the metrics since January between these two teams based on their numbers against Quadrant 1 and 2 opponents. We are certainly getting the value with the underdog tonight.
Villanova (35-4) is an outstanding shooting basketball team — but they certainly have their share of flaws. Lost in their offensive display on Saturday was that they allowed Kansas to score at a 1.11 Points-Per-Possession rate. Defense is a concern for this team. They rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they do not play elite defense. That efficiency mark of 94.4 jumped to a solid but spectacular 105.7 mark against Big East opponents. This lack of a lockdown defense combines with a style of play on offense that can tend to be too dependent on making 3s. Villanova is just average at offensive rebounding (149th in the nation) while ranking 289th in the nation in free throw rate. The Wildcats are outstanding in protecting the basketball so they take almost full advantage of each possession but they do not have a reliable backup plan if there shots are not falling outside of the fact that 47.5% of their shots are from behind the arc. Furthermore, Villanova is not deep as they only go seven deep in their rotation. And the Wildcats are not tall with their biggest player being the 6’8 Omari Spellman. Villanova has coved the point spread in all 5 games in the NCAA Tournament as the favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games as the favorite. And while the Wolverines hold their opponents to just 62.9 PPG, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games against teams that do not allow more than 64 PPG. Expect a close game where having the points will be valuable. 25* CBB National Championship Game A-List Special with the Michigan Wolverines (601) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (602). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-02-18 |
Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 145.5 |
Top |
62-79 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (601) and the Villanova (602). Villanova (35-4) made 13 of their 26 shots from behind the arc in the first-half on Saturday en route to their 95-79 win over Kansas. The memories of the Wildcats’ explosive first-half while making 55.4% of their shots and scoring 95 points against the Jayhawks will compel many bettors take expect another high scoring game and take the Over. The Wildcats 3-point shooting quickly regressed back to their mean in the second-half as they made only 5 of their 14 (35.7%) shots from 3-point land. And while Kansas and Michigan hold their opponents to just a 33.3% and 33.0% shooting percentage from the 3-point line, this Wolverines team does a much better job in contesting these shots. Michigan ranks 5th in the nation with their opponents taking only 29.8% of their shots from the field from downtown which is far lower than Kansas’ 39.1% 3-point attempt to field goal attempt ratio. The Jayhawks simply did not execute on defense in the opening moments of that game — and that combined with Villanova’s Omari Spellman exposing Kansas big man Udoka Azubuike out on the perimeter. It will be much harder to do that against Michigan who have already played three wars against a Purdue team that has a similar offensive profile as this Wildcats team. Mo Wagner is much more mobile than Azubuike which will help his defensive assignment against Spellman. So while Villanova will cover the point spread if they shoot 50% from 3-point land, there is simply plenty of reasons to conclude that was an outlier performance. I expect both teams to be nervy in this game given the pressure of the moment. Both of these teams also sacrifice offensive rebounding for getting back on defense — so the tempo of this game can quickly become a slower, half-court affair. The Wolverines only rebound 25.6% of their missed shots which is 270th in the nation. And while Villanova ranks 149th in the nation with a healthier 29.4% offensive rebound rate, that number dropped significantly to a 25.2% mark in Big East play. The Wildcats have covered all five of their games in the NCAA Tournament as the favorite — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after covering at least three straight games as the favorite. Villanova has also played 7 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the number set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less between games. And while the Wolverines hold their opponents to just 62.9 PPG, Villanova has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that do not allow more than 64 PPG.
Michigan (33-7) is now ranked 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after their 69-57 win over Loyola-Chicago on Saturday. They held the Ramblers to just a 43.1% shooting mark while limiting them to making only 1 of their 10 shots from behind the arc. The Wolverines raised their level of play in January when Xavier Simpson finally earned the starting point guard job. Simpson is an outstanding defender who has stymied some of the best offensive guards in the nation — he will make things difficult for the Wildcats’ Jalen Brunson. It is defense that has gotten this Michigan team to the National Championship Game. They made only 42.4% of their shots against the Ramblers — and that was the fourth time in this NCAA Tourney in their five games where they did not shoot better than 44.7% from the field. Head coach John Beilein will try to slow the pace of this game. The Wolverines rank 324th in the nation by averaging only 64.8 possessions per game as compared to the 68.3 national average for possessions. Michigan also ranks 309th in the nation with a patient offense that averages 18.7 seconds per possession which is 1.5 seconds slower than the national average. This slower pace translates into the NCAA Tournament where the Wolverines have now played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total. Michigan has also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em. Additionally, the Wolverines have played 8 of their last 12 games on a neutral court Under the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. And in their last 11 games when playing their second game in three days, Michigan has played 8 of these games Under the Total. 25* College Basketball Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (601) and the Villanova (602). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-31-18 |
Kansas +5 v. Villanova |
Top |
79-95 |
Loss |
-104 |
26 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (813) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (814). Villanova (34-4) has covered the point spread in all four games as the favorite so far in the NCAA Tournament after their 71-59 win over Texas Tech on Sunday as a 6-point favorite. But Red Raiders’ head coach Chris Beard may have discovered a flaw in the Wildcats’ offense as they host just 33.3% from the field while making only 4 of their 24 (16.7%) of their shots from behind the arc. Villanova head coach Jay Wright admitted as much this week — and Kansas’ Bill Self will certainly steal elements from that Texas Tech defensive plan. As it is, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games as the favorite. Villanova may very well win this game but I am expecting a very close game between these two heavyweights. The Wildcats have some weaknesses which will make it difficult for them to cover a 5-point or so point spread against elite competition. They are too dependent on shooting 3s which account for 47.1% of their field goal attempts — and they will be facing a Jayhawks’ team that holds their opponents to making just 32.7% of their 3-point attempts. Villanova does not do much in generating possessions if their 3s are not falling. They only pulled down 25.2% of their missed shots in Big East play while only forcing turnovers in 17.5% of their Big East opponent’s possessions. The Wildcats do not get to the free throw line either as they own an anemic 29.8% free throw attempt to field goal attempt ratio with that ranking 281st in the nation. On defense, this Villanova team ranks 14th in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency at 94.6 — but that number was a much higher 105.7 in conference action. The Wildcats defense has struggled against playmaking guards — and Kansas has two of those. With their tallest rotational player being the 6’8 Omari Spellman and only going 6 or 7 deep in their rotation, this team has vulnerabilities. Furthermore, this basketball program has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the Semifinals in tournament action.
Kansas (31-7) proved their toughness last Sunday by defeating a bigger Duke team by an 85-81 score in overtime as a 3.5-point underdog. The Jayhawks won that game despite making only 43.5% of their shots which was their worst offensive performance in their last seven games. Kansas played very good on defense by holding the Blue Devils to just a 42.9% field goal percentage. But the Jayhawks were most impressive by their effort on the boards as they actually ourebounded that bigger Duke team by a 47-32 margin — including holding them to only 10 offensive rebounds at just a 25% offensive rebounding rate despite them being the top offensive rebounding team in the nation. Malik Newman has taken his game to another level in this tournament — he scored 32 points against Duke including all 13 points in overtime as he put his team on his back. What is impressive about this Kansas team is that they are in Final Four despite their season-long best player not yet excelling in this Big Dance. Devonte’ Graham is averaging just 16 PPG while making only 34% of his shots — but it would not be a surprise if he enjoyed a breakout game against the Wildcats. With Graham and Newman, the Jayhawks have two dynamic guards who can wreak havoc against the Villanova defense that has struggled against similar guards. Kansas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. And while they have won their last three games by just 4 points, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after winning their last two games by no more than 6 points. Additionally, they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games under head coach Bill Self who remains a bit underrated. Self may be the best in the business when designing plays of offense after a timeout. Furthermore, he is a master tactician when afforded ample time to prepare. It is telling that his teams are 30-5 straight-up in the first game of a new week in the NCAA Tournament but then just 17-13 in the second game of the week with just one day to prepare. With his move to a four-guard lineup this year (in part out of necessity when big man Billy Preston was denied eligibility by the NCAA), these Jayhawks happen to be in a better position to defend the small ball approach championed by Jay Wright. Expect a very close game that Kansas has a good chance to win outright. 25* College Basketball Underdog of the Year with the Kansas Jayhawks (813) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (814). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-31-18 |
Kansas v. Villanova UNDER 155 |
Top |
79-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
26 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (813) and the Villanova Wildcats (814). This is an interesting clash between two teams that love to attempt 3-point shots. Kansas (31-7) is attempting more 3-pointers than ever under Bill Self with 41.4% of their field goal attempts coming from behind the arc which is 80th in the nation. Jay Wright has been having his team take advantage of the 3-point shot for years now — this year’s Wildcats are attempting 47.1% of their shots from 3-point land which is 14th most in the nation. This importance on the 3-point shot extends to the defensive end of the court where both teams emphasize defending against these shots. The Jayhawks hold their opponents to just a 32.7% shooting mark from inside the arc while Villanova limits their opponents to just a 32.2% field goal percentage from 3-point land. I see these similar styles clashing to produce a lower scoring game between these two heavyweights that will be feeling the pressure of the Final Four. Kansas made only 43.5% of their shots on Sunday in their 85-81 win in overtime over Duke as a 3.5-point underdog. The Jayhawks have then played 18 of their last 26 road games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 85 points. Kansas made 13 shots from 3-point land against the Blue Devils after making 10 shots from behind the arc in their previous game against Clemson — but they have then played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after making at least 10 shots from behind the arc in each of their last two games. Additionally, while the Wildcats outscore their opponents by +16.4 PPG, the Jayhawks have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG.
Villanova (34-4) reached the Final Four with their 71-59 win over Texas Tech as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. The Wildcats held the Red Raiders to just a 33.3% shooting percentage in that victory. Villanova has raised their level of play on the defensive end of the court in this Big Dance as they have held their four opponents to scoring at just a 0.99 Points-Per-Possession rate. But concerns exist for the Wildcats on the offensive end of the court after they also made only 33.3% of their shots. Jay Wright credited the Red Raiders’ scouting and schemes to stymie their 3-point offensive attack. They made only 4 of their 24 (16.7%) shots from the 3-point line — and Kansas should be replicating those schemes with a week to prepare for this contest. Villanova has covered the point spread in all four of their NCAA Tournament games as the favorite — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after covering the point as the favorite in three straight games. 25* CBB Final Four Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (813) and the Villanova Wildcats (814). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-31-18 |
Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan -5 |
Top |
57-69 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 6 m |
Show
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At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (812) minus the points versus the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (811). Loyola-Chicago (32-5) pulled off their fourth straight upset victory in the NCAA Tournament with their 78-62 win over Kansas State last Saturday. The Ramblers were lights out from the field by making 57.4% of their shots which was tied for their best shooting performance in their last nine games. They also held the Wildcats to just a 34.8% field goal percentage which was their best defensive effort in their last four contests. While this Cinderella with Sister Jean has been a great story for the sports media, the bubble will likely burst in a big way for this team on Saturday under the pressure and focus all week of the Final Four. This is a team that is not used to this type of scrutiny and attention. They also have not played a team all season as skilled as these Wolverines. Even in getting to the Final Four, Loyola-Chicago has had a fortuitous draw. In their four wins over Miami (FL), Tennessee, Nevada and Kansas State, the highest-ranked team according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics were the Volunteers at 13th in the nation. Their best non-conference opponent was Florida that currently ranks 20th in the nation by Pomeroy. For comparison’s sake, Michigan has played six games against teams that Pomeroy ranks in his Top-Nine: Michigan State (twice), Purdue (three times) and North Carolina. As it is, the Ramblers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games after an upset win by double-digits. And while they made 55.8% of their shots in their previous game against Nevada, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after making at least 55% of their shots in two straight contests. Furthermore, Loyola-Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with five or six days of rest.
Michigan (32-7) reached the Final Four with their 58-54 win over Florida State last Saturday. The Wolverines defense continued to flex their muscles in that game as they held the Seminoles to just a 31.4% field goal percentage. Michigan has held five of their last seven opponents to a field goal percentage of 38.1% or less. Moving forward, the X-Factor in this game may very well be Moritz Wagner who has not enjoyed a great NCAA Tournament so far in this event. The 6’11 stretch forward makes 39.6% of his 3-point shots presents a defensive nightmare for this Ramblers team. Loyola’s 6’9 Cameron Krutwig is probably not mobile enough to handle Wagner out on the perimeter. When the Ramblers’ switch on pick-and-rolls, Wagner should have significant matchup advantages. Even a big team like Tennessee did not run even one pick-and-roll against this team in this tournament — so Loyola-Chicago may be in for a rude awakening. Krutwig averages only 20 minutes per game — and his substitute is only 6’6 making their size issues even more of an issue. The Ramblers allow their opponents to shoot 61% at the rim with 1/3 of opponent’s points coming from this spot on the court. John Beilein will likely have his team prepared to either take 3s or drive it to the hole to take advantage of Loyola’s shaky defense inside. The Ramblers also turn the ball over in 18.9% of their possessions which is 215th in the nation — and the Wolverines force turnovers at a solid 19.4% rate. Lastly, Michigan’s improvement this season began when Xavier Simpson earned the starting point guard role because he is an elite defender. Simpson has given fits to elite scoring guards like Purdue’s Carson Edwards and Houston’s Rob Gray. Loyola’s offense centers around their point guard Clayton Custer — they lost three of their five games this season when he was injured. But if — and when — Simpson puts his clamps down on Custer, this Ramblers’ offense will likely sputter. In the end, the Wolverines simply have more playmakers on the court. Lastly, Beilein’s team is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Loyola-Chicago/Michigan Special Feature with the Michigan Wolverines (812) minus the points versus the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (811). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-30-18 |
Illinois-Chicago v. Northern Colorado OVER 157.5 |
Top |
71-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Illinois-Chicago Flames (781) and the Northern Colorado Bears (782). Northern Colorado (25-12) reached the Championship Game of the College Insider Tournament on Wednesday with their 99-80 win over Sam Houston State as a 10.5-point favorite. The Bears made 59% of their shots in that game — they are torching the nets to close out the season by making 52.7% of their shots over their last five games. They are scoring 89.9 PPG on their home court this season while making 49.9% of their shots. Northern Colorado has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games on their home court Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, not only have the Bears played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring 80 points in their last game but they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. Northern Colorado made 17 of their 30 (56.7%) shots from behind the arc on Wednesday — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after making at least 13 shots from behind the arc in their last contest. Furthermore, the Over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bears have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams outside the Big Sky Conference.
Illinois-Chicago (20-15) reached the Finals of the CIT with their 67-51 upset win at Liberty on Wednesday as a 4.5-point underdog. The Flames are finding their offense late in the season as the are shooting 46.6% from the field over their last five games which is a notch or so higher than their 45.2% season field goal percentage. Illinois-Chicago has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after an upset win. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a double-digit win on the road. Furthermore, this team has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. The Flames have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Illinois-Chicago has played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after winning three of their last four contests. Lastly, the Flames have played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 150 to 159.5 point range. 25* CBB CIT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Illinois-Chicago Flames (781) and the Northern Colorado Bears (782). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-29-18 |
Penn State v. Utah +4.5 |
Top |
82-66 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 15 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (712) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (711). Penn State (25-13) was on fire from behind the 3-point line on Tuesday as they nailed 11 of their 20 shots from downtown en route to their 75-60 blowout win over Mississippi State as a 2.5-point favorite. But such a strong effort might have set up the Nittany Lions for a letdown in this Championship Game — especially with them laying a handful of points. Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a victory by at least 15 points. The Nittany Lions went into halftime with a 42-23 lead as those first 20 minutes of the game being the most important moments of that contest. However, Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after leading by at least 15 points at halftime of their last game. Additionally, the Nittany Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 55 games after making at least 50% of their shots from behind the arc in their last game — and this includes five of these last eight situations. Furthermore, Penn State has covered the point spread in three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests. But the Nittany Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three straight contests. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games including five of these last six situations.
Utah (23-11) enters the NIT Championship Game playing their best basketball of the season after pulling off their second straight upset on Tuesday in their 69-64 upset win over Western Kentucky. The Utes have won four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning four of their last five games. Utah has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset victory. Additionally, the Utes have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win which includes a 3-0-1 ATS mark in their last four contests. This team plays at a slow pace which should help this championship be a close contest. They had only 66 possessions on Tuesday which also helped keep their personal fouls down after seeing only 62 possessions in their Quarterfinals contest with Saint Mary’s (despite that game going to overtime). Fewer possessions has helped Utah keeps their personal fouls down — they were whistled for just 12 fouls against the Hilltoppers after committing 15 fouls against the Gaels. Utah has then covered the point spread in a decisive 48 of their last 70 games after not committing more than 15 personal fouls in their last two games which includes covering the point spread in fourteen of these last seventeen along with five of these last seven situations. Head coach Larry Krystkowiak’s team is also 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year on Utah Utes (712) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (711). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-28-18 |
Illinois-Chicago v. Liberty -5 |
Top |
67-51 |
Loss |
-102 |
2 h 22 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (724) minus the points versus the Illinois-Chicago Flames (723). Illinois-Chicago (19-15) reached the Semifinals of the College Insider Tournament with their 83-81 upset win at Austin Peay last Wednesday as a 4-point underdog. The Flames nailed 10 of their 23 (43.5%) shots from 3-point land to help them pull the upset. That came on the heels of their 84-61 win over St. Francis-PA where they made 10 of 24 (41.7%) shots from 3-point land. Illinois-Chicago has then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after making at least 10 shots from behind the arc in two straight games. They are only shooting 34.9% from 3-point land when on the road — so the Regression Gods may be making an appearance for this team tonight. Furthering that thought, while the Flames have scored at least 83 points in their last games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their 10 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last two contests. Additionally, while Illinois-Chicago has scored at least 75 points in their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 75 points in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 75 points in four straight games. Now this team stays on the road where they are being outscored by -3.8 PPG. They were fortunate to see Austin Peay miss 14 of their 16 shots from behind the arc — but Liberty was 2nd in the Big South by making 38.8% of their 3-pointers this season. Illinois-Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Another concern for this team — made more worrisome when they are playing in hostile environment — is their looseness with the basketball as they ranked 312th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.8% of their possessions. This is another area that Liberty can take advantage of as they forced turnovers in 19.1% of their opponent’s possessions in conference play. This also helps illuminate why Illinois-Chicago is just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
Liberty (22-14) reached the Semifinals with their 84-71 win over Central Michigan on Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite. These Flames shot a red hot 56.1% from the field including making 11 of their 25 (44%) shots from downtown — so they should offer more of a challenge to Illinois-Chicago that Austin Peay did on the offensive end of the court. Liberty has covered the point spread in 4 straight boarded games after a point spread win. Now these Flames stay at home for their third straight game. They are 12-6 on their home court with an average winning margin of +12.8 PPG. Liberty thrives on defense on their home court where they limit their visitors to scoring just 59.4 PPG on low 39.2% shooting. Over their last five games, these Flames have held their opponents to just 38.3% shooting while making a healthy 49.2% of their shots. Liberty’s defense is buoyed by outstanding defensive rebounding as they rank 2nd in the nation by limiting their opponents to pull down only 20.2% of their missed shots. Liberty has covered the point spread in 4 straight games on their home court. Additionally, this Flames team has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against non-conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB CIT Semifinals Game of the Year with the Liberty Flames (724) minus the points versus the Illinois-Chicago Flames (723). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-27-18 |
Mississippi State v. Penn State UNDER 136 |
Top |
60-75 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
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At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (779) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (780). Mississippi State (25-11) reached the Semifinals of the NIT with their 79-56 upset win at Louisville as a 6-point underdog last Tuesday. The Bulldogs held the Cardinals to just a 35% field goal percentage in that game. This Mississippi State plays very good defense — they rank 31st in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Their last five opponents are shooting just 40.1% from the field. The Bulldogs have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Mississippi State has also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning three straight games — and they have played a decisive 36 of their last 56 games on the road Under the Total after winning three straight games. Additionally, while the Bulldogs have played their last two games on the road as an underdog, they have then played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after playing two straight games on the road as a dog. Furthermore, Mississippi State has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
Penn State (24-13) has also won three straight games with their 85-80 upset win at Marquette last Tuesday. The Nittany Lions made 53.4% of their shots in that game which was their best shooting effort in their last ten contests. They also allowed the Golden Eagles to make 45.9% of their shots which was actually the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed in their last three games. Penn State has the 19th best defense in the nation when measured by Adjusted Efficiency. They will need to lean on their defense tonight considering that they are making only 40.1% of their shots over their last five games. Expect this game to be more of a defensive struggle as they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. The Nittany Lions have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. Additionally, Penn State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (779) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (780). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-26-18 |
North Texas v. San Francisco -3.5 |
Top |
62-72 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco Dons (742) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (741). North Texas (18-17) reached the Finals of this Best-of-Three College Basketball Invitational tournament with their blowout 90-68 win over Jacksonville State. We had the Mean Green in that game — and it was very nice to see them make a season-high 61.5% of their shots in that contest. But this is a team that shoots only 42.6% of their shots away from home — and they will be playing a Dons’ team that place tough on the defensive end of the court by holding their visitors to just a 41.9% field goal percentage. As it is, North Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 48 games after a game where they made at least 50% of their shots — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in six of their last seven games after nailing at least half their shots in their last contest. This is an improving young team under first-year head coach Grant McCasland. They had previously blown out Mercer on their home court by a 97-67 score in their previous game in this tournament. But the Mean Green have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after registering two straight blowout wins by at least 20 points. The offense has exploded for them to score at least 90 points in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 road games after scoring at least 75 points in three straight contests. Quick first-half efforts have helped this team as they have raced out to score 57 and 47 points in the first 20 minutes of their last two contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 first-half points in two straight games. Playing in a hostile environments has been an issue for this team — and they turn the ball over in 18.5% of their possessions in Conference USA play which was 12th in that conference. Furthermore, the Mean Green have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after playing their their last two games on their home court.
San Francisco (21-15) has won three straight games with their 65-62 win over Campbell on Thursday as a 9.5-point favorite. The Dons have then covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a victory where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. All three of San Francisco’s most recent wins have been by 5 points or less — and they have then covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning three straight games by 6 points or less. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 3 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Dons entered the season with expectations that they would be in the top tier of the West Coast Conference but they started slow in conference play. They found themselves 4-7 in the conference after losing a pair of road games at Saint Mary’s and at Gonzaga. But this San Francisco team has since won nine of their last twelve games including a big win at home against the Gaels in a rematch in February. With the second and potentially third games of these finals scheduled to be played in Denton in North Texas’ gym, the Dons need to win this opening contest to have a reasonable chance of winning this championship. 25* CBB CBI Game of the Year with the San Francisco Dons (742) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (741). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-25-18 |
Duke -2.5 v. Kansas |
Top |
81-85 |
Loss |
-106 |
21 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (721) minus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (722). Kansas (30-7) reached the Elite Eight with their 80-76 win over Clemson on Friday. But now this Jayhawks team gets exposed against a superior opponent with more talent and a more reliable system of play in the Blue Devils. These Jayhawks are not one of Bill Self’s better teams. They lost five games in Big 12 conference play but continued their regular season title streak in large part due to the injury of Texas Tech’s Keenan Evans which triggered the Red Raiders’ four-game losing streak. Kansas’ problems start on defense where they ranked just 46th in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency which is the first time they were outside the Top-24 going back to at least 2002 (kenpom’s data does not go farther back). They were 6th in the Big 12 with Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 108.9 which projects that opponents would score at a 1.09 Points-Per-Possession rate. They only outscored conference opponents by +0.04 PPP. Even worse, because this team plays with four guards, they face a matchup nightmare when encountering a team with multiple big men. Hello, Duke with Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter. It is simply a matchup nightmare that 6’8 Svi Mykhailiuk and his 205-lb frame will be required to play defense against either the 6’11 Bagley at 234 lbs or Carter at 6’10 and 259 lbs. The Jayhawks were 7th in the Big 12 by allowing their opponents to make 51.2% of their shots inside the arc. Kansas is likely to get destroyed on the boards as well as they allow their opponents to make 31.5% of their missed shots which is 295th in the nation. The Blue Devils rebound 39.2% of their missed shots which is the top mark in the country. Furthermore, the Jayhawks do not specialize in getting more scoring opportunities in offensive rebounding nor forcing turnovers — and they are awful at getting to the free throw line with a free throw rate which is 329th in the nation. When they do get to the charity stripe, they made only 69% of these shots in Big 12 play (12th in the conference) — and they have a severe liability there with Udoku Azubuike who shoots a mere 41.1% from the line. The Blue Devils do a fine job of defending inside the arc — they hold opponents to just a 45.3% shooting mark with their 2-point shots (17th in the nation) and that mark lowered to a 44.1% mark against ACC foes. To win this game, the Jayhawks will have to make a bunch of 3s — and they do take 41.0% of the field goal attempts from behind the arc. But Duke defends the perimeter quite well using that 2-3 zone which pushes those 3-point attempts farther back — they ranked 20th in the nation with an opponent’s 3-point field goal percentage of 31.9%. I just don’t think the Jayhawks have enough diversity in their scoring options outside 3-point shooting. As it is, this team is due for a letdown. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by 6 points or less — and after their 4-point win over Seton Hall in the Round of 32, they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning two straight by 6 points or less. Furthermore, Kansas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games if they have won at least twelve of their previous fifteen games (12-3 in their last 15) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning at least four straight games.
Duke (29-7) has won five of their last six games after they survived the grinder with Syracuse on Friday by that 69-65 score. The Jayhawks do not typically play a zone defense — so we will hopefully be spared from watching Grayson Allen take jump shots that would be long 3-point attempts in the NBA. The Blue Devils have more NBA talent on their squad — and they rank in the Top-9 in the nation in Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. Mike Krzyzewski’s move to a 2-3 zone did in conference play did wonders for this team’s ability to slow down opponents on offense. They are more than capable from behind the arc with their 37.7% shooting clip (50th in the nation) while ranking 15th in the nation with their 56.0% mark inside the arc. They did not cover the 11-point spread against the Orange — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. They also have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Additionally, Duke has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing their second game in three days. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams outside the ACC. Lastly, the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the NCAA Tournament. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year with the Duke Blue Devils (721) minus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-25-18 |
Texas Tech v. Villanova UNDER 144.5 |
Top |
59-71 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (719) and the Villanova Wildcats (720). Texas Tech (27-9) has won five of their last six games with their 78-65 upset win over Purdue on Friday. The Red Raiders made 47.5% of their shots in that game which was actually the best offensive performance in their last five contests. They also held the Boilermakers to just a 44.8% shooting percentage which sounds pretty good (especially against an offensive powerhouse like Purdue) — yet that was their highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six contests. Texas Tech is a defense-first team that likes to play at a slower pace. They average 66.7 possessions per game which is the 247th fewest in the nation. Chris Beard’s team is 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. While they are facing a Michigan team that scores 87.0 PPG, they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that score at least 84.0 PPG. The Red Raiders have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total in Tournament action — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total with the Total in the 140 to 149.5 point range. And in the last 42 games on the road with no more than one day of rest, they have played 28 of these games Under the Total.
Villanova (33-4) has won eight straight games with their 90-78 win over West Virginia on Friday. The Wildcats held the Mountaineers to just a 38.6% field goal percentage in their victory. Villanova has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing with no more than one day of rest. The Wildcats made 23 of their 27 (85.2%) of their free throws against a West Virginia team that commits a ton of fouls as a by-product of their defensive pressure. Villanova has played 19 of their last 25 games on the road Under the Total after a game where they made at least 78% of their free throws. There were 76 possessions in that game with West Virginia which may persuade many bettors into expecting another Over with Jay Wright’s offensive juggernaut that has put up amazing shooting numbers over the years. But in Villanova’s previous ten NCAA Tournament games, the average number of possessions was 63.8 which is far below this year’s average throughout all of Division One College Basketball of 68.3. The Wildcats made 13 of their 24 (54.2%) of their 3-point shots against West Virginia but those shots may be harder to come by against this Red Raiders’ defense that holds their opponents to just a 32.8% shooting percentage from behind the arc. 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year with Texas Tech Red Raiders (719) and the Villanova Wildcats (720). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-24-18 |
Florida State v. Michigan -3.5 |
Top |
54-58 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (516) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (515). Florida State (23-11) pulled off their second straight upset victory on Thursday when they stunned Gonzaga by a 75-60 score as a 6-point underdog. We had the Bulldogs in that game — and we were very disappointed to discover the news that Gonzaga’s star sophomore Killian Tillie was unable to play in that game due to an injury he suffered in practice. That was a fortunate set of circumstances for the Bulldogs — but their bubble looks ready to burst tonight against a very balanced Wolverines team that can match them with their depth. As it is, the Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning two straight games as an underdog. Florida State has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. I think the Seminoles’ head coach Leonard Hamilton is very underrated — I was very impressed with his tactics and demeanor in the second-half of their upset win over Xavier last Sunday. The strength of this team is their depth — they played ten players on Thursday who logged in at least ten minutes. But Michigan matches that depth. Lets ignore their blowout win over Texas A&M on Thursday given their big lead. In their buzzer-beating win over Houston last Saturday, the Wolverines had eight players log in at least 10 minutes with a ninth player in Jaaron Simmons being a fifth-year senior who was the best player for Ohio last year who still grabs a few minutes a game as the third point guard in their rotation. The Seminoles simply do not do enough things well to compete against an elite unit like these Wolverines. Their defense was mediocre at best in the ACC where they ranked 13th in Adjusted Efficiency. They allowed ACC foes to make a whopping 40.4% of their 3-point shots which was 14th in the conference. On offense, they made only 33.0% of their 3-pointers which was 13th in the ACC. Florida State generates much of their points from drawing fouls as they led the ACC in free throw rate. But John Beilein teams generally do not commit many personal fouls. This year’s Michigan team is fouling more than in previous seasons — but they are still only averaging 16 personal fouls per game. The Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games after 15 games into the season against teams that did not commit more than 17 personal fouls per game. Furthermore, Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range, the Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these contests.
Michigan (31-7) had the best offensive performance for any team in this NCAA Tournament on Thursday with their 99-72 victory over Texas A&M as a 2.5-point favorite. The Wolverines scored at a 1.38 Points-Per-Possession rate against an Aggies team now ranks as the best best defense in the nation in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. Michigan shot 61.9% from the field while seeing 8 different players make 3-pointers en route to their 14 of 24 (58.3%) shooting mark from behind the arc. This is a big area of advantage for the Wolverines in this game. So too is their ability to score in transition given their diversity of scorers including agile big men like Mo Wagner and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman who can nail 3-pointers. Most opponents do not want to play at a pace that is fast against the Wolverines given these strengths. (Purdue was happy to do so which created two epic games before Michigan finally defeated them in the Big Ten Tournament Championship Game by 9 points). The Wolverines are in transition in just 16.5% of their possessions this season — but their scoring efficiency is in the 97th percentile in those situations. They torched Texas A&M in transition with 15 first-half points which helped them seize their 52-28 halftime lead. And while Florida State likes to play fast, they allow their opponents to see their possessions in transition in 20.2% of their possessions which is 318th in the nation. I just don’t think the Seminoles have enough scoring firepower — especially with their mediocre 3-point shooting — to keep up. But Florida State’s game is not in the half court either. They do crash the boards — but the Wolverines were 2nd in the Big Ten by holding their opponents to pull down just 24.3% of their missed shots. Moving forward, the Wolverines have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road when playing with one day of rest. 25* CBB Elite Eight A-List Special with the Michigan Wolverines (516) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-24-18 |
Loyola-Chicago +1 v. Kansas State |
Top |
78-62 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 6:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (513) plus (or minus if the point spread moves before tip off) the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (514). The similarities between these two teams just begins with the notion that neither of these 11th seeded and 9th seeded teams in the South Region were expected to reach the Elite Eight. Both of these teams are extremely well coached groups that emphasize defense first while playing at a slow pace. Neither team emphasizes rebounding although the Ramblers do a much better job in protecting their offensive glass. The Wildcats create more scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers — but the Ramblers counter that by being very good with their 3-point shooting. Loyola-Chicago (31-5) has the edge in this matchup. Three of their losses were without junior point guard Clayton Cluster available — so they are actually 31-2 when he is healthy and on the court. With five upperclassmen in their rotation, the Rambers are an experienced group. And this Loyola-Chicago team just has more reliable ways to generate offense. The Ramblers are 15th in the nation with a 39.9% shooting percentage from behind the arc — and they also make 56.6% of their shots inside the arc (12th in the nation) with an intricate set of patient but effective maneuvers that helped them put on a shooting clinic in the second-half of their 68-68 victory over Nevada on Thursday. Loyola-Chicago has pulled off three straight upset victories in this tournament — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after an upset victory. Additionally, the Ramblers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outside the Missouri Valley Conference — and they are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Loyola-Chicago has covered the point spread in 5 straight games on a neutral court. And in their last 8 games as an underdog, Loyola-Chicago has covered the point spread 7 times.
Kansas State (25-11) has won five of their last six games with their upset win over Kentucky on Thursday by a 61-58 score as a 5-point underdog. We had Kansas State in that game as I thought they matched up well with a long Kentucky team that would be facing the pressure of high expectations. But I think the limitations of this Wildcats team rears its ugly head in this contest. They were just 7th in the Big 12 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They only make 34.5% of their shots from behind the arc (202nd in the nation). And while they are reliable inside the arc with a 53.8% shooting percentage with their 2-point shots, they will be facing a Ramblers’ defense that limits their opponents to just a 46.9% of their shots inside the arc (56th in the nation). Interior defense is a surprising concern for this team as well — they allowed Big 12 opponents to make 52.7% of their missed shots (9th in the conference). I think this is were Loyola-Chicago wins the game. And all of this is compounded by the fact that Kansas State is still not getting much production of their best interior player in 6’10 Dean Wade. He was only able to play 8 minutes against Kentucky — and his team not only needs his 16 PPG but also his defensive presence down low. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing their second game in three days. Kansas State looks due for a letdown as well as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning at least three straight games. Additionally, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against non-conference opponents. And in their last 13 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em, Kansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of these games. 25* CBB Elite Eight Underdog of the Year with the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (513) plus (or minus if the point spread moves before tip off) the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-24-18 |
Central Michigan v. Liberty -2.5 |
Top |
71-84 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (518) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (517). Liberty (21-14) has won four of their last five games after their 65-52 win over North Carolina A&T way back on March 12th as a 12-point favorite. The Flames will benefit from the extra time off as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 boarded games when playing with at least seven days of rest. Liberty has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 boarded games after a point spread win. The Flames went into halftime with a low-scoring 23-21 lead in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight boarded games after failing to score at least 25 points in the first half of their last game. Liberty gets to host this game on their home court where they are 11-6 this season with an average winning margin of +12.8 PPG. They hold their visitors to scoring just 58.7 PPG on a low 38.8% field goal percentage at home. The Flames have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Liberty does an outstanding job of protecting their defensive glass — they are second in the nation by rebounding 80.1% of opponent’s missing shots. This will frustrate the Chippewas who led the Mid-American Conference in offensive rebounding. Additionally, Liberty has held their last five opponents to just a 35.3% field goal percentage. Furthermore, the Flames have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 boarded games as the favorite.
Central Michigan (21-14) has won five of their last six games with their 98-94 win at Wofford last Friday as a 5.5-point underdog. The Chippewas allowed the Terriers to make 54% of their shots in their win which is a concern for this team after Fort Wayne enjoyed a 55% field goal percentage in their opening game of the College Insider Tournament. Central Michigan was able to pull that game out by pulling down 32.4% of their missed shots while making 17 of their 38 (44.7%) of their 3-pointers. The Chippewas are likely to see their bubble burst in this tournament after pulling off two upsets in a row to reach the Quarterfinals. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after registering two or more upset victories in a row. Now Central Michigan stays on the road for their third straight game in this tournament. The Chippewas have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two straight games on the road. Central Michigan is being outscored when they play on the road — and they are only making 43.1% of their shots away from home. The Chippewas have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 54 road games after allowing at least 85 points in their last game. Lastly, Central Michigan has not committed more than 11 turnovers in four straight games — but that mark will be challenged against this Flames team that forced turnovers in 19.1% in Big South play. The Chippewas have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after not committing more than 11 turnovers in at least four straight games. 25* CBB College Insider Tournament Game of the Year with the Liberty Flames (518) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-23-18 |
Texas Tech +2 v. Purdue |
Top |
78-65 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:57 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (873) plus the point(s) versus the Purdue Boilermakers (874). Purdue (30-6) has won seven of their last eight games with their 76-73 win over Butler as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. The Boilermakers won that game despite being without their anchor in the middle in Isaac Haas who suffered a broken elbow in their previous game against Cal-State Fullerton. His presence was missed in the middle as the Bulldogs made 60% of their shots inside the arc. Purdue does have a capable backup at center in another seven-footer in Matt Haarms — but the problem is that he cannot log a ton of minutes. He played 29 minutes against Butler which meant that the Boilermakers which left them very vulnerable inside the arc for those remaining 11 minutes. Depth is now a significant issue for this team that was riding high using four perimeter players surrounding their two seven-footers that head coach Matt Painter rotated between. As it is, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. The Boilermakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread — and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread win. I have two other concerns for this team. First, they are now even more dependent on their 3-point shooting after losing a player in Haas who was leading the nation in post-up points. Purdue takes over 40% of their shots from behind the arc — and while they have made 43% of these shots so far in the Big Dance, they are now facing a Red Raiders team that holds their opponents to just a 32.7% shooting mark behind the arc (41st in the nation). Second, the Boilermakers do not protect their defensive glass as opponents pull down 27.9% of their missed shots (137th in the nation). Texas Tech crashes the glass as they pull down 33.2% of their misses (45th in the nation). Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. And in their last 8 games when playing on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘e, the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests.
Texas Tech (26-9) has won four of their last five games with their 69-66 win over Florida on Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite. The Red Raiders won that game despite shooting only 44.5% from the field which was their worst field goal percentage in their last five games. Texas Tech is making only 32% of their shots from behind the arc in the Big Dance — but they should see more of those shots fall moving forward given their 36.4% shooting percentage from 3-point land this season. The Red Raiders have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after winning two straight games. Texas Tech has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. This Red Raiders team plays outstanding defense — they rank 4th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their first two tournament opponents are scoring at just a 0.93 Points-Per-Possession rate while making only 43% of their shots inside the arc. Texas Tech is led by a dynamic guard in Keenan Evans who is averaging 16.0 PPG — just in the second half — of their two tournament games so far. Remember, the Red Raiders were in the driver’s seat to win the Big 12 regular season crown until Evans suffered a toe injury that kept him out for seven games. Texas Tech lost four straight games and went 2-5 overall without the services of Evans. Now with Evans healthy again, this team remains significantly undervalued — especially as an underdog against an opponent with their own significant injury. Lastly, the Red Raiders have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams outside the Big 12. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Underdog of the Year with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (873) plus the point(s) versus the Purdue Boilermakers (874). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-23-18 |
Clemson v. Kansas UNDER 143 |
Top |
76-80 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (877) and the Kansas Jayhawks (878). Clemson (25-9) reached the Sweet 16 with their 84-53 upset win over Auburn on Sunday. The Tigers flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Tigers to just a 25.8% shooting percentage in what was their best defensive effort of the season. Clemson should be able to maintain this level of defensive intensity — they rank 7th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and have held their first two NCAA Tournament opponents to 32% shooting. The Tigers have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Additionally, Clemson has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games while playing 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. It is on offense where the Tigers are likely to receive a visit from the Regression Gods after they made 51.6% of their shots in their first two games in the Big Dance including nailing 16 of their 40 (40%) shots from behind the arc. Clemson is not a strong offensive team — they ranked 11th in the ACC in Adjusted Efficiency. The Tigers shooting inside the arc has been the biggest surprise as they made 46 of their 80 (57.5%) 2-point shots after making only 46.2% of their shots inside the arc in ACC play which ranked 10th in the conference. The season-ending injury to their best player in 6’9 Donte Grantham has really hurt the offensive effectiveness of this team. With Grantham on the court, Clemson was making 56.6% of their shots inside the arc — but without him, they see that number drop to just a 45.4% slip for their 2-pointers. They were scoring 77 PPG before Grantham’s injury but that number dropped to a 68 PPG clip for this team before they began the Big Dance. The Tigers benefited from playing New Mexico State and an Auburn team that suffered their own challenging season-ending injury in Anfernee McLemore who their best post defender. Moving forward, the Tigers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in non-conference play.
Kansas (29-7) has won five straight games after they defeated Seton Hall by an 83-79 score as a 4.5-point favorite. The Jayhawks have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after a point spread loss. Kansas’ rim protector Udoka Azubuike was only able to play 22 minutes in that win over the Pirates — but they did hold Seton Hall to a 45% field goal percentage. With the extra days to rest and rehab his knee, Azubuike should be able to impose his presence of the defensive end of the court tonight. And while the Jayhawks have scored at least 76 points in five straight games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in five straight games. Lastly, Kansas has played 29 of their last 40 games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total. 25* CBB Sweet Sixteen Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (877) and the Kansas Jayhawks (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-22-18 |
Florida State v. Gonzaga -6 |
Top |
75-60 |
Loss |
-106 |
9 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 9:57 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (820) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (819). Gonzaga (32-4) has won sixteen games in a row after they outlasted Ohio State on Sunday with their 90-84 win as a 4-point favorite. The Bulldogs won that game despite their experienced veterans not playing particularly well in that game. Sophomore Rui Hachimura and freshman Zach Norvell combined to score 53 points in that game despite not being in the rotation for Mark Few for this team last year that made their run to the National Championship Game. Look for the Gonzaga veterans to play better tonight. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after winning at least ten straight games. Gonzaga has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. This is an outstanding team on both ends of the court as they rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 12th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have enjoyed good starts in each of their last three games as they entered halftime with leads of 11, 9 and 9 points in each of their last three games. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after owning halftime leads of at least 5 points in each of their last three games. Gonzaga has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em — including covering the point spread in three straight games when favored on a neutral court by 6 points or less.
Florida State (22-11) has won two straight games since losing to Louisville in the ACC Tournament with their 75-70 upset win over Xavier on Sunday. The Seminoles were trailing by 12 points with 10:42 left in that game but embarked on a furious rally that included them outscoring the Musketeers by an 18-4 mark in the final 5:30 of that game to steal that victory. Frankly, a questionable foul on JP Macura late in that game which fouled him out played a big role in that game as it took away Xavier’s second best player. While that was a frustrating moment for those of us invested in the Musketeers, it is a reminder that Florida State was pretty fortunate during that comeback. This is a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a win by 6 points or less. While the Seminoles are tough by making 54.1% of their shots inside the arc (41st in the nation), they are too many things that this team struggles with that makes this a tough matchup against a very balanced Bulldogs team. Florida State was 13th in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also allowed their opponents to pull down 29.8% of their missed shots (231st in the nation) — and this Gonzaga team crashes the glass to pull down 33.1% of their missed shots (47th in the nation). Furthermore, Gonzaga made only 33% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play which was 13th in the ACC. Not surprisingly, the Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament, Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. 25* CBB Thursday Night Special Feature with the Gonzaga Bulldogs (820) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (819). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-22-18 |
Texas A&M v. Michigan -2.5 |
Top |
72-99 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (818) minus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (817). Michigan (30-7) has won eleven straight games with their 64-63 buzzer-beating win over Houston last Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite. The Wolverines on the game despite making only 35.6% of their shots in that game which was their worst offensive performance of the season. Michigan also made only 8 of their 30 shots from behind the arc (26.7%) which was far below the 37.3% mark they enjoyed from 3-point range in Big Ten play. Given the Wolverines credit for doing what was necessary to win their two games played in Wichita despite not playing at their best. Don’t be surprised if this team plays much better tonight — they face an opponent in these Aggies that match up very well against them. As it is, Michigan has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. The Wolverines have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. This is a good pairing for this Michigan team because Texas A&M does a great job in taking away second chances for their opponents on offense with their outstanding frontline. But the Wolverines sacrifice offensive rebounding with getting back on defense. However, Michigan does commit themselves to protecting their defensive glass: they are 3rd in the nation by holding their opponents to just 8.0 PPG in Second-Chance Opportunities — and that mark has dropped to just 7.0 PPG on Second-Chance-Opportunities in the NCAA Tournament. The Wolverines are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games played on a neutral court.
Texas A&M (22-12) has won five of their last six games with their 86-65 upset win over North Carolina on Sunday as a 7-point underdog. The Aggies enjoyed a true outlier performance in playing probably their best game of the season to pull off this blowout upset victory. For starters, they made 51.7% of their shots which was their best offensive effort in their last five games while also nailing 10 of their 24 shots (41.7%) from behind the arc. Texas A&M only made 30.6% of their 3-point shots in SEC play. They also held the Tar Heels to just a 33.3% shooting percentage while limiting them to scoring at just a 0.84 Points-Per-Possession rate which was their third worst offensive performance of the season. North Carolina lives off second-chance opportunities but they only pulled down 17% of their missed shots against the Aggies frontcourt. Expect a big letdown from this team now as they are just 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games after a win by at least 20 points. Texas A&M has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their lat 14 games after scoring at least 85 points in their last game. Additionally, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. And while Texas A&M has allowed only 28 and 27 points in the first-half of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first-half in two straight games. The vulnerability of this team is in their backcourt where injuries and suspensions have left them to a freshman in T.J. Starks who started the year fifth on their depth chart. Starks has steadily improved this season — and played quite well against the Tar Heels — but he remains the Achilles’ heel for this team. He has turned the ball over 11 times in his two NCAA Tourney games. He faces a stiff challenge in being defended by the Wolverines’ Zavier Simpson who has been a shutdown defender against elite point guards all season. Michigan faces turnovers in 19.3% of their opponent’s possessions (116th in the nation) while the Aggies turn the ball over in 19.2% of their possessions (231st in the nation) with their question marks with their ball handlers. Lastly, Texas A&M has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (818) minus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (817). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-21-18 |
Utah v. St. Mary's -6.5 |
Top |
67-58 |
Loss |
-106 |
7 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Saint Mary’s Gaels (768) minus the points versus the Utah Utes (767). Saint Mary’s (30-5) has won six of their last seven games after defeating Washington on Monday as an 11-point favorite to advance to the Quarterfinals of the NIT. The Gaels are tough to beat when they get their offense going as they have in this tournament. They made 56.4% of their shots in their win over the Huskies on the heels of making 59.3% of their shots in their 89-45 blowout win over Southeastern Louisiana in the opening round of the NIT last Tuesday. Saint Mary’s have then covered the point spread in a decisive 49 of their last 67 home games after scoring at least 85 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after scoring at least 85 points their last two games. The Gaels have the luxury of staying at home for this contest which will be their last game on their home court this season before the Semifinals are played in Madison Square Garden. This is the third straight game that Saint Mary’s was the home favorite in this tournament — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after playing their last two games at home as the favorite. The Gaels are 18-1 on their home court this season with an average winning margin of +17.8 PPG. Saint Mary’s makes 51.1% of their shots at home while limiting their opponents to just 60.9 PPG on low 41.7% shooting. Additionally, the Gaels have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 opportunities to play a team from the Pac-12.
Utah (21-11) reached the Semifinals with their easy 95-71 win over LSU on Monday as a 5-point favorite. The Utes shot 57.9% from the field which was their best offensive performance of the season — so a letdown is very likely for this team at least on the offensive end of the court. Utah has has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. And while the Utes raced out to a 47-30 halftime score, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after scoring at least 45 points in the first half of their last game. Utah has been very good at home this season where they enjoyed a 15-3 record in the higher altitude in Salt Lake City — but they are just 6-8 on the road with an average losing margin of -4.2 PPG. The Utes make only 44.0% of their shots away from home which provides another reason why they are not likely to come close to matching the 57.9% they enjoyed against LSU. Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points. And in their 4 games against teams from the West Coast Conference, the Utes have failed to cover the point spread in all 4 games. Together, these team trends produce our specific 119-42 ATS combined angle for this situation. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Saint Mary’s Gaels (768) minus the points versus the Utah Utes (767). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-21-18 |
Jacksonville State v. North Texas +1 |
Top |
68-90 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (778) plus (or minus) the points versus the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (777). North Texas (17-17) is playing its best basketball of the season in March as they followed up a 13-point win at South Dakota in the opening round of the College Basketball Invitational with their 96-67 blowout win over Mercer as a 3-point underdog on Monday. Sophomore Roosevelt Smart has continued his breakout season by averaging 32.5 PPG in this tournament but he is being joined by junior guard Jordan Duffey who is finding his own rhythm with this team after scoring 31 points while nailing 6 shots from behind the arc in that win over the Tigers. First-year head coach Grant McCasland deserves a tremendous amount of credit for continuing to lead his team to improvement this season. He inherited a Mean Green team that was 8-22 overall while winning only two of their eighteen conference games. But this North Texas team was 8-10 in Conference USA this season including the suffering of three tough losses in a 6-point loss at Middle Tennessee along with an overtime loss at home to Western Kentucky and a 2-point loss to Marshall. McCarsland pulled off a similar feat last season when he led Arkansas State to a 20-12 mark after they were just 11-20 in the previous season. This Mean Green team is very motivated to continue to build momentum for next season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games. UNT has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after playing a game as an underdog. The Mean Green opened as a small favorite in this game — but the line movement has them a small dog now in many spots. Regardless, North Texas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home in expected home games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, the Mean Green has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams outside Conference USA.
Jacksonville State (23-12) reached the Quarterfinals of the College Basketball Invitational with their 80-59 win at Central Arkansas as a 2-point favorite on Monday. The Gamecocks may be due for a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win on the road. This is a challenging situation as it is for this team who played that game on Monday while their campus was hit by a tornado. This is the third straight game on the road for this team in this tournament — and they have not played a home game since closing out their Ohio Valley Conference regular season by hosting Belmont way back on February 22nd. Jacksonville State has failed to cove the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning at least two straight games — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in three straight games after winning two straight on the road. 25* CBB CBI Semifinals Game of the Year with the North Texas Mean Green (778) plus (or minus) the points versus the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (777). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-20-18 |
Mississippi State v. Louisville OVER 144 |
Top |
79-56 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (667) and the Louisville Cardinals (668). Mississippi State (24-11) has won two straight games — as well as three of their last four games — with their 78-77 upset win at Baylor on Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Mississippi State has also played a decisive 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where both teams scored at least 75 points. The Bulldogs stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court.
Louisville (22-13) reached the NIT Quarterfinals with their 84-68 win over Middle Tennessee on Sunday as a 4.5-point favorite. The Cardinals have then seen the Over go 20-5-2 in their last 27 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is also 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after a point spread victory. Louisville has also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win on their home court. Additionally, the Cardinals have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — and they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (667) and the Louisville Cardinals (668). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-19-18 |
Washington v. St. Mary's UNDER 143.5 |
Top |
81-85 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 19 m |
Show
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At 11:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (621) and the St. Mary’s Gaels (622). St. Mary’s (29-5) reached the second round of the NIT last Tuesday with their 89-45 win over Southeastern Louisiana as a 14.5-point favorite. The Gaels torched the Lions by making 59.3% of their shots which was the best offensive effort in their last eight games. This game shapes up to be more of a defensive struggle. St. Mary’s has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 30 points. Additionally, the Gaels have paled 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread. Furthermore, this team has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. St. Mary’s gets to host this second round game where they are holding their opponents to just 59.8 PPG on 40.9% shooting. The Gaels have played 14 of their last 16 games Under the Total on their home court. And in their last 5 games against non-conference opponents, St. Mary’s has played 4 of these games Under the Total.
Washington (21-12) advanced to the second round of the NIT with their 77-74 upset win over Boise State as a 2-point last Wednesday. The Huskies held the Broncos to just a 35.4% shooting percentage as they continued to play well on that end of the court leading the Pac-12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But Washington was 10th in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency so they will need to lean on their defensive play to stay competitive in this game. They make only 43.2% of their shots on the road. The Huskies have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Washington has also played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 17 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Lastly, the Huskies have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB NIT Second Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (621) and the St. Mary’s Gaels (622). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-19-18 |
LSU v. Utah -5 |
Top |
71-95 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 43 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (620) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (619). Utah (20-11) has won 2 of their last three games after their 69-59 win over Cal-Davis in the first round of the NIT last Wednesday as a 12-point favorite. The Utes are then 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after an ATS loss. Utah gets to host this Second Round game where they are 14-3 with an average winning margin of +12.5 PPG this season. This Utah team plays very good defense — they are holding their visitors to just a 47.1% shooting percentage. They host a Tigers team that was last in the SEC in offensive rebounding with a 25.1% rate that was last in the conference. That is a good thing since the Utes were 10th in the Pac-12 in defensive rebounding. LSU was 12th in the SEC on free throw rate while only making 33.4% of their missed shots (8th in the SEC). What the Tigers do best on offense is make shots inside the arc as they were 3rd in the SEC by making 52.3% of their 2-point shots. But Utah ranked 2nd in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 47.1% shooting percentage inside the arc. The Utes are 10-4-3 ATS in their last 17 games — and they are 41-14-2 ATS in their last 57 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
LSU (18-14) has won two of their last three games with their 84-76 win over UL-Lafayette as a 3.5-point favorite last Wednesday in their opening game in the NIT. That was an emotional game for this Tigers team that is punching down by establishing a feud with their in-state neighbors. Don’t be surprised if this team experiences a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a win on their home court. LSU is also just 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they are 7-19-3 ATS in their last 29 games after a point spread victory. And while the Tigers have scored at least 78 points in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 10 road games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. LSU goes on the road where they are just 4-10 with an average losing margin of -8.3 PPG. The Tigers make only 44% of their shots away from home which is far below their 47.7% field goal percentage for the season — but the bigger concern is on the other of the court as they allow their home hosts to make 48.5% of their shots. LSU was 11th in the SEC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Lastly, they are just 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on the road. 25* CBB NIT Second Round Game of the Year on the Utah Utes (620) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (619). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-18-18 |
Marshall v. West Virginia -12.5 |
Top |
71-94 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 48 m |
Show
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At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (722) minus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (721). Marshall (25-10) upset Western Kentucky last week to win the Conference USA Tournament — and they pulled that feat off again on Friday when they upset Wichita State despite being a 13.5-point underdog with their 81-75 victory. Dan D’Antoni and his up-tempo system that seeks to maximize offensive efficiency — like what his brother Mike does as the head coach of the Houston Rockets — has received much adulation over the last two days. But the Thundering Herd look primed for a big letdown now. Somehow, this amazing “system” has never helped his brother reach even the NBA Finals with any of the various teams he has coached. And somehow, the Thundering Herd had lost ten times this year before finding magic in these last two games. But Marshall has then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after winning at least four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after winning at least five straight contests. Additionally, that victory over the Hilltoppers was another close call by just one point — and the Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their last two contests by 6 points or less. Frankly, this is now a bad matchup for Marshall as they are playing another team that excels in the efficiency formula for success. The Thundering Herd shoot 45.4% of their shots from behind the arc despite making only 35.7% of those shots. They thrive inside the arc where they make 56.0% of their 2-point shots which is 19th best in the nation. But the Mountaineers hold their opponents to just a 45.7% of their shots inside the arc (29th in the nation). Furthermore, Marshall sacrifices rebounding for the fast pace they want on both ends of the court. The Mountaineers are vulnerable to teams that pound the offensive glass (not Marshall) — but they pull down 36.7% of their missed shots which is 4th best in the nation. The Thundering Herd are 308th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 32.0% of their misses — and they have been out-rebounded by 15 and 10 boards in their last two games. Marshall has then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after being out-rebounded by double-digits in two straight games.
West Virginia (25-10) struggles in their half-court offense — so they will be thrilled to engage in fast up-and-down game where they can find better scoring opportunities in transition. The Mountaineers facilitate their fast break by forcing turnovers — they rank 2nd in the country by forcing turnovers in 23.4% of their opponent’s possessions. West Virginia has won three of their last four games with their 85-68 win over Murray State on Friday as a 10-point favorite. That game finished above the 145.5 point total in that contest — and they have then covered the spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a game that finished Over the Total. The Mountaineers committed only 8 turnovers against the Racers as they continue to maximize their shot volume by protecting the basketball and crashing the boards for second-chance points. They have not committed more than 11 turnovers in three straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not committing more than 11 turnovers in two straight contests. Moving forward, West Virginia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Lastly, Bob Huggins has been very reliable with this team in the NCAA Tournament vis-a-vis point spread expectations. Not only are the Mountaineers 17-8-2 ATS in their last 27 games in the Big Dance but they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in this Round of 32 where opponents have only a day to prepare. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Second Round Game of the Year with the West Virginia Mountaineers (722) minus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (721). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-18-18 |
Syracuse v. Michigan State -8 |
Top |
55-53 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 41 m |
Show
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At 2:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (716) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (715). Syracuse (22-13) pulled off their second straight upset victory in this NCAA Tournament with their 57-52 win over TCU on Friday as a 4.5-point underdog. The bubble is about to burst for the Orange this afternoon. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning two straight games as an underdog — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in three of the last four of those situations. Syracuse has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. And in their last 12 games after winning two straight games, the Orange have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these games
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03-17-18 |
Loyola-Chicago v. Tennessee UNDER 131 |
Top |
63-62 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 24 m |
Show
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At 6:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (531) and the Tennessee Volunteers (532). Tennessee (28-8) played perhaps their best defensive game of the season on Thursday in their 73-47 win over Wright State. The Volunteers held the Raiders to just a 31.7% shooting percentage which was their best defensive performance of the season. Expect another outstanding defensive effort from Rick Barnes’ team as they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 50 or less points in their last game. Tennessee has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. This Vols team boasts the nation’s 5th best statistical defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. They should slow down this Ramblers’ juggernaut. Tennessee can be exploited on the offensive glass — they allow their opponents to rebound 31.3% of their missed shots which is 288th in the nation. But this Loyola-Chicago team sacrifices offensive rebounding to get back on defense — they only rebound 22.2% of their missed shots which is 332nd lowest in the nation. Of course, the Ramblers’ commitment to getting back on defense will frustrate the Volunteers who love to get their offense going on the fast break. Tennessee struggles in their half-court offense — they make only 47.2% of their shots inside the arc (282nd in the nation). Tennessee has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, the Volunteers have played 9 of these games Under the Total.
Loyola-Chicago (29-5) reached the Round of 32 with their 64-62 win over Miami (FL) has a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. The Ramblers eked that game out by making 47.3% from the field which was their best offensive effort in their last five games. But they also allowed the Hurricanes to make 51% of their shots which as their worst defensive effort in their last twenty-six contests. Expect Loyola-Chicago to play much better on defense this afternoon. This team ranks 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Tennessee makes over 38% of their 3-point shots — but the Ramblers rank 44th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 32.7% shooting mark from behind the arc. Loyola-Chicago has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And with that game with the Hurricanes finishing below the 133 point total, the Ramblers have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Loyola’s previous game resulted in a 65-49 victory over Illinois State in the Finals of the Missouri Valley Conference Championship Game — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in their last two games. The Ramblers have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 65 points in two straight contests. Loyola-Chicago’s offense stems primarily from good shooting — they are 8th in the nation in effective field goal percentage while ranking 14th in the nation with a 40.0% shooting mark from downtown. But the Volunteers rank 12th in the nation in their opponent’s eFG while limiting their opponents to just a 31.5% shooting mark from behind the arc which is 14th best in the country. Lastly, the Ramblers have played 5 straight games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round Two Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (531) and the Tennessee Volunteers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-16-18 |
Syracuse v. TCU -4.5 |
Top |
57-52 |
Loss |
-107 |
12 h 37 m |
Show
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At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (876) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (875). TCU (21-11) enters the Big Dance on a two-game losing streak after they were upset by Kansas State as a 3-point favorite last Thursday in the Big 12 Tournament. Head coach Jamie Dixon should have his team ready to bounce-back as the Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games on the road after an upset loss. Furthermore, TCU has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss to a conference rival. The Horned Frogs are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread setback. Much will be made about TCU’s ability to handle the Syracuse 2-3 matchup zone — but Dixon has plenty of experience matching wits with Jim Boeheim given his long tenure at Pitt. Dixon’s teams won fifteen of their twenty-one games against Syracuse over his tenure. Dixon’s teams always are well-schooled in making extra passes that serve to expose the holes that zone defenses inevitably leave. This Horned Frogs team is 7th in the nation in assisted field goal rate. It is telling that TCU won both their games this season against a Baylor team that also deploys a similar zone defense scheme. The Syracuse zone also leaves a very soft spot down low for offenses to crash the glass. I noted in Wednesday’s Report on the Orange to defeat Arizona State that this year’s Syracuse team was actually doing a better job in protecting their defensive glass. Yet this Orange team is still allowing their opponents to pull down 29.1% of their missed shots which is 203rd in the nation. These Horned Frogs can exploit that weakness as they rank 20th in the nation by rebounding 34.5% of their missed shots. TCU should overwhelm the Syracuse defense — they rank 8th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games when playing on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range.
Syracuse (21-13) found a way to outlast Arizona State on Wednesday in their 60-56 upset win over the Sun Devils. I thought coaching would play a huge role in that game with Boeheim having a huge advantage over debutante Bobby Hurley who was coaching his first game in the Big Dance. Boeheim holds no such advantage in this chess match with Dixon. I expect a letdown now from the Orange as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a point spread win. Offense is the biggest problem for this Syracuse team after they finished second-to-last in the ACC in both field goal percentage and 3-point shooting. The Orange made only 40.8% of their shots on Wednesday — and they are making just 38.1% of their shots over their last five games. Syracuse is also making only 39.4% of their shots on the road. The Orange scored only 59 points in their last game against North Carolina — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than 60 points in their last two games. Syracuse does like to clean up their messes by crashing the boards — they pull down 34.8% of their missed shots this season. But this TCU team limits their opponents to rebounding only 25.9% of their missed shots so these second chance opportunities will be harder to come by tonight. Lastly, fatigue may play a role in slowing down the Orange tonight. The Syracuse bench is thin — and Boeheim leans very heavily on Tyus Battle, Frank Howard and Oshae Brissett who all averaged more than 39 Minutes Per Game this season. Playing with just a one day turnaround does not make things easier for that trio that is carrying this team. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Round Game of the Year on TCU Horned Frogs (876) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (875). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-15-18 |
Montana +11 v. Michigan |
Top |
47-61 |
Loss |
-108 |
13 h 37 m |
Show
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At 9:50 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Montana Grizzlies (733) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (734). Michigan (28-7) has won nine games in a row — culminating with upset wins over Michigan State and Purdue on consecutive days to win the Big Ten Tournament back on March 4th. John Beilein is one of the best coaches in College Basketball — but this Wolverines team is not nearly as reliable when being asked to cover double-digit point spreads against feisty rivals. For starters, an emotional letdown should be expected for this team after playing underdog in those final two games to win the Big Ten Tournament. As it is, Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after registering two straight upset losses. The long layoff is an issue for this team that led the Big Ten by averaging 24.8 shots from behind the arc per game while generating 43% of their offense from 3-point land. Playing on an unfamiliar neutral court for the first time in eleven days may mess with the accuracy of their long jump shots. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with at least seven days between games. Now this team has the burden of the pressure of expectations against a potential Cinderella opponent. Remember, this team almost was upset by Iowa in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament where the Hawkeyes were able to rally back to force overtime. The Achilles’ heel for the Wolverines is their free throw shooting — they rank 329th in the nation by making only 65.7% of their shots from the charity stripe. Compounding this problem is that two of their key ball handlers in point guard Xavier Simpson and wing Charles Matthews make only 51.9% and 56.1% of their free throws. They made only 18 of their 32 (56.2%) of their free throws in that Iowa game — and this provides a blue print for Montana to keep their game close with the Wolverines. The other problem for Michigan against the Hawkeyes was that their two starting big men in Moritz Wagner and Muhammad-Ali Abdur Rahman both fouled out in that game — and the interior depth for this team gets thin pretty quickly. The Wolverines avoided foul troubles against the Spartans and Boilermakers as they committed ten less personal fouls and five less personal fouls respectively in those games. But Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after committing at least five less personal fouls than their opponents in two straight games. Montana predicates their game on drawing fouls and winning the free throw battle — so this is a real area of vulnerability for the Wolverines. Furthermore, Michigan committed only 5 turnovers in their 75-66 win over Purdue in the Big Ten Championship Game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing more than 5 turnovers. Beilein-coached teams always do a great job in protecting the basketball — but they cannot expect to replicate their microscopic 7.8% turnover rate which was about half of their still outstanding rate for the season.
Montana (26-7) does an outstanding job in forcing turnovers — they rank 30th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.2% of their missed shots. The Grizzlies also rank 33rd in the nation by pulling down 32.3% of their missed shots — so this is a double-digit underdog that does little things to generate more scoring opportunities. Montana has won 19 of their last 21 games en route to winning both the Big Sky regular season as well as the Big Sky Tournament after they crushed their in-state rival Montana State by an 82-65 score as a 4.5-point favorite. Look for them to build off their momentum as they are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a point spread win. The Grizzlies averaged a robust 86 PPG in their three conference tournament games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a game that finished Over the Total. They also have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing three straight Overs. This Montana team is tough to beat when their offense gets going because they are so good on the defensive end of the court. They rank 38th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just a 46.1% shooting percentage inside the arc — and that opponent’s field goal percentage for 2-point shots dropped to a 44.0% mark in conference play. The Grizzlies also make it tough for their opponents to launch 3-point shots as they ranked 28th in the nation with their opponents taking only 32.3% of their shots inside from 3-point land. In conference play, opponents made only 33.0% of their 3-point shots. On offense, Montana will attack Wagner and Rahkman down low as they make 51.9% of their shots inside the arc (ranking 97th in the nation) while seeing that number rise to a 52.7% mark in conference play. The Grizzlies get to the free throw line as they ranked 46th in the nation with a Free Throw Attempt to Field Goal Attempt ratio of 38.9% — and that ratio rose to a 40.6% mark in Big Sky play. Montana made a healthy 72.6% of the free throws in conference play. But perhaps the most important metric in handicapping this game is that the Grizzlies rank 318th in the nation with an opponent’s FTA/FGA ratio of 41.3% — they will be very comfortable putting Michigan on the free throw line to expose their problems on the charity stripe. I don’t see the Wolverines covering a double-digit point spread if their FTA/FGA ratio approaches the 32/62 splits that they endured in that Iowa game. Lastly, Montana has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams outside the Big Sky. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Round Underdog of the Year with the Montana Grizzlies (733) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (734). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-15-18 |
Wright State v. Tennessee UNDER 132 |
Top |
47-73 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 12:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wright State Raiders (737) and the Tennessee Volunteers (738). I used to like taking Unders for these early tournament games on neutral courts in the Conference Tournaments — but too many bettors started latching on to that angle to squash much of the value in these investments. I had no early Unders for the Conference Tournaments (and I might have had an Over?) — but I do like the convergence of factors for this game to be lower scoring than expected between two teams with stout defenses but who can experience scoring droughts. And this game will tip off 11:40 AM local time in Dallas which may contribute to a groggy start for both teams. Wright State (25-9) is a defense-first team that ranked 30th in the nation by allowing only 65.7 PPG. Led by 6’9 freshman Loudon Love and 6’11 Parker Ernsthausen make it very tough for opposing teams to score inside — the Raiders’ ranked 26th in the nation by limiting their opponents to making just 45.6% of their shots inside the arc with that number dropping to just a 44.3% mark in Horizon League play. This strength compels them to play at a slow pace where they are quite content to grind out low-scoring games. This Wright State team has a low effective field goal percentage of 49.0% ranking 254th in the nation — and they make only 34.0% of their shots from behind the arc which ranks 221st in the nation. Only Grant Benzinger makes more than 36% of his shots from 3-point land This team plays as if the first team to 65 points wins — they averaged only 64 PPG in their nine losses this year. They won the Horizon League Tournament with their 74-57 win over Cleveland State — and they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points. And while that game finished Over the 126.5 point total, the Raiders have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing an Over. They limited the Vikings to only 4 offensive rebounds in that game to continue their strong protection of their defensive glass as they ranked 38th in the nation by limiting their opponents to pulling down just 25.0% of their missed shots. Wright State has then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 5 offensive rebounds in their last game. And in their last 10 games against teams outside the Horizon League, Wright State has played 7 of these games Under the Total.
Tennessee (25-8) ranks 4th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This Volunteers’ team boasts athleticism and length which helps them to be strong in all facets on defense including closing off transitions, forcing turnovers while boasting on-the-ball skills that led to them ranking in the 96th percentile in half-court defense. They limited SEC opponents to scoring at just a 1.01 Points-Per-Possession rate. But this Tennessee team can struggle on offense. They have five players who make at least 38% of their 3-pointers — but because they lack a guard who can create his own shot or who is proficient in creating scoring opportunities for others, this team can become too reliant on jump shots. They rank just 290th in the nation by making only 47.0% of their 2-point shots. In five of their last eight regular season games against SEC foes, the Volunteers scored at a rate lower than 0.97 PPP. Tennessee enters the Big Dance coming off a 77-72 upset loss to Kentucky in the SEC Championship Game as a 2-point favorite where they shot just 37.1% from the field. The Volunteers have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Tennessee has played their last two games Over the Total — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Additionally, the Volunteers have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Furthermore, Tennessee has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130 to 139.5 point range. And in their last 5 games against SEC foes, the Vols have played all 5 of these games Under the Total. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Wright State Raiders (737) and the Tennessee Volunteers (738). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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