01-06-21 |
St. John's v. Xavier -6.5 |
Top |
61-69 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Xavier (688) minus the points versus the St. John’s (687). THE SITUATION: Xavier (8-2) has lost their last two games after their 85-68 upset loss as a 3-point favorite last Wednesday. St. John’s (6-4) snapped a three-game losing streak back on December 20th with their 94-83 win against Georgetown as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MUSKETEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Xavier made only 43.1% of their shots which was tied for the third-worst shooting effort this season. The Musketeers had covered the point spread in five straight games before that loss to the Pirates. Xavier has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in at least four of their last five games. The Musketeers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Xavier now returns home where they are 7-1 this season with an average winning margin of +12.3 PPG. The Musketeers are making 50.2% of their shots at home which is generating 83.0 PPG. They are also holding their opponents to just 39.7% of their shots when playing on their home court. Xavier matches up quite well against the Red Storm who deploy head coach Mike Anderson’s “40 minutes of hell” full-court press. St. John’s is 29th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.5% of their possessions. But the Musketeers get good guard play from seniors Paul Scruggs and Nate Johnson. Xavier only turns the ball over in 16.0% of their possessions which is 37th best in the nation. They have not turned the ball over more than 11 times in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not turning the ball over more than 11 times in their last four. If and when the Musketeers break the Red Storm press, they should torch their defense. St. John’s has an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 56.7% which is 325th in the nation — and they are allowing their opponents to make 39.6% of their 3-pointers. Xavier has an eFG of 55.9% which is 25th in the country — and they are making 37.2% of their 3-pointers which is 51st in the nation. St. John’s has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win over a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit victory against a Big East foe. The Red Storm shot 47.6% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five games while making 13 of their 29 shots from behind the arc. But St. John’s has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after making at least 13 shots from 3-point land in their last game. The Red Storm also held the Hoyas to just 43.5% shooting which was their second-best scoring effort in their last eight games. Anderson’s team may be rusty in this game having not played in 17 days. They go back on the road where they have lost three of their four games while allowing their home hosts to make 50% of their shots. St. John’s have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Red Storm have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and Xavier has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Xavier (688) minus the points versus the St. John’s (687). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-21 |
Kansas -5.5 v. TCU |
Top |
93-64 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (639) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (640). THE SITUATION: Kansas (8-2) had won eight games in a row before losing at home to Texas on Saturday by an 84-59 score as a 4.5-point favorite. TCU (9-2) has won five straight contests after their 67-60 win at Kansas State on Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas played their worst game of the season on Saturday. They made only 30.8% of their shots from the field including missing 20 of their 23 shots from behind the arc. That 30.8% field goal percentage was their lowest mark of the season. They also allowed the Longhorns to make 49.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. Kansas has an opponent’s field goal percentage of 40.5% so they should play better tonight. Head coach Bill Self has been remarkably reliable in getting his team to respond with good efforts after bad losses. The Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 9 straight games after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 10 points against a conference rival. Additionally, Kansas is a dominant 43-19-3 ATS in their last 65 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread setback. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to score at least 60 points in their last game. Perhaps the Jayhawks were primed for a letdown after defeating two ranked teams in Texas Tech and West Virginia in their previous two games. Now they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 130s. Kansas has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. TCU is 4-2 at home this season — but with just a +4.8 net points-per-game differential. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set in the 135.5 to 139.5 point range. Additionally, the Horned Frogs have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a win over a Big 12 opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread victory. TCU has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games at home after winning at least two games in a row. The Horned Frogs’ best win this season was against Oklahoma State — their losses were against Providence and Oklahoma. Head coach Jamie Dixon’s team is perhaps best at defending the arc — they are holding opponents to just a 28.2% shooting percentage from 3-point land which is 41st in the nation. But Self’s team is not reliant on 3-pointers — they only take 36.2% of their shots from behind the arc which is the 206th most reliant on 3s in the nation. Kansas should dominate the interior in this game with their size — the Horned Frogs allow their opponents to make 49.6% of their shots inside the arc which is 160th. The Jayhawks should also get plenty of second-chance opportunities. Kansas pulls down 35.1% of their missed shots which is 31st in the nation — and TCU ranks 150th by allowing their opponents to pull down 27.1% of their misses.
FINAL TAKE: Marcus Garrett is questionable for Kansas after suffering a head injury against Texas -- Self said he seemed good yesterday (but would be a game-time decision). The point guard is solid but his potential absence is not devastating for this balanced Jayhawks team. TCU is not in Kansas’ league — they rank 76th and 60th in the nation in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency while the Jayhawks rank 36th and 19th in those metrics. Kansas has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Horned Frogs would be more dangerous as a home dog in this spot if they were playing in front of a packed gym full of fans. Alas … 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Game of the Month with the Kansas Jayhawks (639) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-20 |
Knicks v. Raptors -8.5 |
Top |
83-100 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (520) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (519). THE SITUATION: Toronto (0-3) has started the new season with three straight losses after their 100-93 loss at Philadelphia as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. New York (2-2) pulled off their second-straight upset victory with their 95-86 win at Cleveland as a 3.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS MINUS THE POINTS: It has been a rough start for head coach Nick Nurse’s team. They lost Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol in free agency. They have had to make Tampa Bay their temporary home given COVID protocols in Canada prohibiting travel to and from the United States. Yet this remains a talented basketball team with Pascal Siakam, Kevin Lowry, and quality depth. They added Aron Baynes to compensate for the loss of Ibaka and Gasol (but they could probably use another big man). The Raptors have been outrebounded by at least eight boards in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after getting outrebounded by at least 5 boards in three straight games. Toronto only made 35.6% of their shots on Tuesday against the 76ers which was their worst shooting effort this season. But they did hold the Sixers to only a 38.1% field goal percentage which was their best defensive effort of the season — so that is encouraging. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games after a point spread loss. And while Toronto has yet to cover the point spread this season, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread in at least three straight games. New York played their best defensive game of the season on Tuesday by holding the Cavaliers to just 36.4% shooting. That defensive effort helped that game finish miles below the 216 point total — but the Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 49 of their last 77 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. That win came on the heels of their 130-110 upset win against Milwaukee on Sunday. But new coach Tom Thibodeau has seen his teams fail to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after pulling off two straight upset wins. Despite these early upsets, this is still a major rebuilding project in New York. They committed a troubling 25 turnovers against Cleveland while enduring a -12 net turnover margin in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after turning the ball over at least ten more times than their opponent. This Knicks team is also dealign with a bunch of injuries with Dennis Smith, Jr., Frank Ntilikina, and rookie Obi Toppin all out and Austin Rivers questionable with a groin.
FINAL TAKE: The Knicks made be just what the doctor ordered for Nurse and this Raptors team. Toronto has won eight straight games against New York while covering the point spread in six of these games. I don’t love that this game is being played in Tampa Bay — but the Raptors have played a game already in their new home this season and we would likely be laying 12 or so points if this game was being played in Toronto (and I would be investing in this situation still). The circumstances here are too good to pass up. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Toronto Raptors (520) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-20 |
Bucks v. Heat +6.5 |
Top |
108-119 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (574) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (573). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (2-2) got a small measure of revenge against a Heat team that eliminated them from the playoffs in the fall with their 144-97 blowout win in Miami as a -6.5-point favorite. Miami (1-2) has lost two of their first three games this season.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: The Bucks played as if they had been visualizing every 3-point attempt sinking for them since they got eliminated by the Heat in the bubble in last year’s playoffs. Milwaukee made an NBA record 29 shots from behind the arc while nailing 56.9% of their 51 3-point attempts. Needless to say, the Regression Gods will be visiting tonight. The issue is how far down to earth will the Bucks play again tonight? Their team personality suggests they will suffer a significant emotional letdown. Milwaukee is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a double-digit win — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in the four games after a victory. The Bucks have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. And in their last 6 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread all 6 times. I looked the Bucks closely — I got scared off for two reasons. First, even after last night’s triumph, Milwaukee has still failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 30 road games when favored by up to 6 points. The second reason I backed off was that Miami was playing without Jimmy Butler who is dealing with an ankle injury. While the Heat are obviously better with Butler leading the team, I was concerned that the oddsmakers and betting market would overcompensate for his absence. Butler has been ruled out tonight — which makes me like the Miami side even more in this rematch situation. With Bam Aqebayo and Goran Dragic leading the way for a team whose depth remains a strength, there is plenty of talent to keep things close tonight. As head coach Erik Spoelstra indicated after the game, his team did not match the Bucks’ intensity level last night. They also did a poor job early in their 3-point defense with Spoelstra indicating that the Bucks’ first 15 shots from downtown were “right in their wheelhouse.” Both of those issues will be corrected tonight. The Heat have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 130 points in their last game. And while they allowed a whopping 46 points in the first quarter en route to going to the locker room at halftime with a 83-57 hole, they also have covered the point spread in 4 of 5 games after trailing by at least 20 points at halftime. Miami has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss by at least 30 points. As it is, this has been a resilient group under Spoelstra. The Heat are 38-14-1 ATS in their last 53 games after a straight-up loss — and this includes them covering the point spread in twenty-six of their last thirty-four games after a setback. Miami has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 10 points on their home court. The Heat made only 46.8% of their shots after nailing at least 50.6% of their shots in their first two games. I think Miami improved their roster by bringing in Moe Harmless for Jae Crowder while also adding the criminally-underrated Avery Bradley. The Heat also committed an unsightly 22 turnovers last night which they should clean up tonight. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee had not looked great early in the season with two losses to Boston and New York along with a win against a Golden State team that may be in for another long year. Chemistry is an issue after significant roster turnover after failing to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Expect a close game and don’t be surprised with a Heat upset — but (always) take the points for some insurance especially with the Heat playing without Butler who is so clutch down the stretch. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with the Miami Heat (574) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-20 |
Northwestern v. Iowa -10.5 |
Top |
72-87 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (628) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (627). THE SITUATION: Iowa (7-2) comes off a 102-95 upset loss at Minnesota on Friday as a 6-point favorite. Northwestern (6-1) pulled off their third-straight upset victory on Saturday when they stunned Ohio State as a 2.5-point home underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa has been remarkably reliable when coming off a straight-up loss under head coach Fran McCaffrey. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road. Iowa has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 90 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a game where both teams scored at least 80 points. Iowa made only 37.2% of their shots which was their worst shooting effort of the season. Now the Hawkeyes return home where they are 7-0 with an average winning margin of +29.5 net PPG. Iowa is making 49.9% of their shots at home which is generating a staggering 96.1 PPG. And while the conventional wisdom on Iowa is that they are not a great defensive team, they hold their guests to 39.9% shooting which is resulting in only 66.6 PPG. The Hawkeyes are 20-4-2 ATS in their last 26 gams at home. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Northwestern has pulled upsets against Michigan State and Indiana before their win over the Buckeyes. The Wildcats have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after an upset win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after an upset win at home against a Big Ten rival. Additionally, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home in the Big Ten — and they are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games after a point spread win. Even in the win, Northwestern demonstrated some vulnerabilities in the paint against the Buckeyes — and that is an ominous sign when now facing Luka Garza who is a scoring machine with his 28.8 PPG scoring average on 62.7% shooting and a beast on the boards with a 10.0 RPG average. The Wildcats are an improved team under head coach Chris Collins — but it has not been a complete roster overhaul of bluechip five stars from the team that finished 3-17 in Big Ten play last season. Collins has his team playing at a quicker pace — but that will be a big mistake if they try that against Iowa. Northwestern has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 150s.
FINAL TAKE: It may look easy to take this upstart Wildcats team as a double-digit dog to at least keep things close given their recent success — but that is kinda the point. Iowa has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games when laying double-digits. Trust the oddsmakers on this one — the Hawkeyes’ offensive prowess can produce another blowout at Carver-Hawkeyes Arena. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (628) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (627). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-20 |
Wisconsin v. Michigan State +1.5 |
Top |
85-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (752) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (751). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (6-1) looks to rebound from their first loss of the season on Sunday with their 79-65 upset loss in Evanston against Northwestern as an 8.5-point favorite. Wisconsin (7-1) has won four games in a row with their 67-53 victory over Nebraska on Tuesday as a 13.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINT(S): Michigan State probably played their worst game of the season on Sunday. They made only 38.8% of their shots which was the worst shooting marker them this season. They also allowed the Wildcats to make 52.9% of their shots which was their worst defensive performance of the year. Head coach Tom Izzo certainly made defense a priority in practice this week after they allowed Oakland to make 50% of their shots in their previous game. The Spartans have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing their last to opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field. Michigan State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. Perhaps the biggest challenge for Izzo with his team this season is replacing the leadership of the departed Cassius Winston. While sophomore Rocket Watts has assumed the starting point guard duties, this group is doing a great job of sharing the basketball. The Spartans are second in the nation by assisting on 73.7% of their field goals. They have generated at least 19 assists in three straight games — and Izzo’s teams have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing two straight games with at least 19 teams assists. Michigan State returns home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And while it is not often that Sparty plays at home as an underdog, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games when getting the points. Additionally, Michigan State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Wisconsin has covered the point spread as a favorite for three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 34 games after covering the point spread as a favorite for at least three straight contests. The Badgers have held their last three opponents to no better than 38.9% shooting from the field — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not allowing their last three opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field. Furthermore, Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after winning at least six or seven of their last eight games. The Badgers are 9th in the nation by making 41.9% of their shots from behind the arc — but they may be too reliant on these shots with them making up 39.0% of their shots from the floor. In their lone loss this season against Marquette, they made only 7 of their 24 shots (29.1%) from 3-point land. Perhaps not coincidentally, that game on December 4th was their only game so far this season played away from their home court at the Kohl Center. The Badgers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last five games on the road after playing their previous three games at home.
FINAL TAKE: The home team has covered the point spread in 8 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams. Look for Michigan State to play one of their best defensive games of the season after their loss to what now looks like a pretty good Northwestern team who followed up their upset win against Sparty with a road win at Indiana. 25* CBB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Michigan State Spartans (752) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (751). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-20 |
Pelicans v. Heat -3 |
Top |
98-111 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (578) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (577). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-1) looks to rebound from their 113-107 upset loss at Orlando on Wednesday as a 4.5-point favorite. New Orleans (1-0) looks to build off their 113-99 upset victory at Toronto as a 4-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: The defending Eastern Conference champions were a bit flat in their 2020-21 season debut. They turned the ball over 22 times in a sloppy effort against the Magic. The spotlight of national television should help Miami tighten things up this afternoon. This team has been consistently good under head coach Erik Spoelstra after disappointing efforts. Miami has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss to a Southeast Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after an upset loss to a divisional opponent. Additionally, the Heat have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 33 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 32 home games as a favorite, the Heat are 21-10-1 ATS. New Orleans may be due for a letdown in their first game under new head coach Stan Van Gundy as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up victory. The Pelicans have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 23 games on the road after an upset victory by at least 10 points. New Orleans has Zion Williamson but they traded away Jrue Holliday to Milwaukee while getting Eric Bledsoe. I am not sure why Van Gundy keeps getting jobs after doing nothing in his last tenure with Detroit. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 trips to Miami to play the Heat. This is a nice early situation for us. 25* NBA ESPN Game of the Month with the Miami Heat (578) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (577). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-21-20 |
Murray State v. Austin Peay +3 |
Top |
70-74 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Austin Peay Governors (786) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (785). THE SITUATION: Austin Peay (4-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 76-70 upset loss to Florida A&M as a 13-point favorite last Tuesday. Murray State (4-2) has won three of their last four games after their 90-49 win against Transylvania last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOVERNORS PLUS THE POINTS: Austin Peay should respond with a strong effort as they are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games after a straight-up loss. That game with Florida A&M might have been their worst effort of the season. They only made 39.7% of their shots which was the second-lowest mark all season. They also allowed Florida A&M to make 55.6% of their shots which was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have surrendered all season. The Governors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. This is a good team under head coach Matt Figger in his fourth year in the program. He had two players declare early for the NBA draft in the spring — but Terry Taylor and Jordyn Adams decided to return for their senior and sophomore seasons. Austin Peay was 21-12 with a 14-4 record in the Ohio Valley before the stoppage of play. They are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Murray State may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. The Racers have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a double-digit win at home. Murray State has played only twice on the road where they have suffered both of their losses. The Racers returned three starters from the team that finished 15-3 in the Ohio Valley and 23-9 overall — but there is only one senior in their rotation. Murray State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams already played once on December 8th when the Racers embarrassed the Governors on their home court by an 87-57 score. Austin Peay gets to avenge that loss on their home court tonight — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 20 points. 25* CBB Monday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Austin Peay Governors (786) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (785). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-16-20 |
Duke -2.5 v. Notre Dame |
Top |
75-65 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (693) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (694). THE SITUATION: Duke (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 83-68 upset loss to Illinois back on December 8th as a 3-point favorite. Notre Dame (2-2) has won two of their last three games after their 64-63 upset victory in Rupp Arena against Kentucky on Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: The college basketball observers who pontificate about point spreads think that the oddsmakers have installed Duke as a favorite only because of the reputation of head coach Mike Krzyzewski. Well, he has managed to lead his team to cover point spread expectations in 19 of their last 24 games after an upset loss by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss by at least 15 points. Additionally, his Blue Devils are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after a loss by at least 10 points. Now of the reasons why Krzyzewski's teams are so reliable after setbacks is the disappointment usually ensures a captive audience from the uber-talented roster he consistently assembles. Duke will be without their most naturally-talented player in Jalen Johnson after the freshman suffered a foot injury. And while this Duke team may lack the elite talent of some of his recent teams, there are still plenty of five-star players at his disposal — and this is one of his deepest teams over the last few seasons. The eight days off between games will help Coach K continue to work with his team in practice. He will fine-tune some issues on defense after the Illini shot 58.6% from the field which was the worst defensive performance of their season. This is the Blue Devils from game away from Cameron Indoor — but Duke has covered the point spread in 5 straight road games after playing at three straight games at home. The Blue Devils have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 140s. Notre Dame is riding high after their upset victory over another blue blood in Kentucky — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road. The Fighting Irish raced out to a 31-9 lead in the first ten minutes of the game before going into halftime with a 22-point lead. But Notre Dame was outscored by a deceive 54-33 margin in the final 30 minutes. And head coach Mike Brey’s teams at South Bend have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after leading by at least 15 points at halftime of their last game. The Irish return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after not forcing more than 14 turnovers in at least four straight games. Notre Dame has not forced more than 12 turnovers in any of their four games — and they rank 315th in the nation by only turning the ball over in 13.6% of their opponent’s possessions. Furthermore, the Fighting Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games as an underdog or pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: This Duke team — despite losses to Michigan State and Illinois — ranks 17th in the nation in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. So take all the negative talk about how down this the Blue Devils team is with a grain or two of salt. Let’s trust KenPom and the oddsmakers’ judgment (and Coach K!). 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN Game of the Month with Duke Blue Devils (693) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (694). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-15-20 |
Minnesota v. Illinois -7.5 |
Top |
65-92 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Illinois Fighting Illini (616) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (615). THE SITUATION: Illinois (4-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 81-78 upset loss at Missouri on Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite. Minnesota (6-0) remained unbeaten to start the season with their 90-61 win over UMKC last Thursday as a 17-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ILLINI MINUS THE POINTS: Illinois bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss. Illinois has also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 75 points. This is a battle-tested team whose other loss is to the second-ranked team in the nation in Baylor — and all they did between their losses was crush Duke at Cameron Indoor Arena by an 83-68 score. The Illini have one of the best starting-fives in the nation led by a dynamic inside-out duo of Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn. Dosunmu was a preseason All-American who is scoring 24.8 PPG while adding 7.7 Rebounds-Per-game and 5.2 Assists-Per-Game. The 7’0 Cockburn is also an NBA talent who scored 13.3 PPG last season while pulling down 8.8 Assists-Per-Game. They return home to Champagne for only their fourth game on their home court this season — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 42 home games when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. Minnesota is just 2-6-3 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Now the Golden Gophers go on the road for the first time all season — and they gave failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games after playing their last three games at home. Minnesota has not been a great team on the road under head coach Richard Pitino. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Golden Gophers have also failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 47 road games as an underdog in the 6.5 to 9 point range. This team was better than their 15-16 record last year. They certainly got a shot in the arm when Marcus Carr bypassed the NBA to return for his junior season. And Minnesota added two nice transfer players in center Liam Robbins from Drake and guard Both Gach from Utah. Yet this is an untested group whose overtime win last week at home against Boston College was their only game against a power-five conference opponent before tonight.
FINAL TAKE: This will be an angry Illini team after losing to Mizzou — and the Golden Gophers are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Illinois Fighting Illini (616) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (615). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-02-20 |
Texas v. North Carolina +1 |
Top |
69-67 |
Loss |
-107 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (716) plus (or minus) the points versus Texas (715) in the finals of the Maui Invitational in Asheville, North Carolina. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (3-0) reached the finals of the Maui Invitational yesterday with their 67-63 win over Stanford as a 4-point favorite. Texas (3-0) joined them in the finals with their 66-44 upset victory over Indiana as a +2.5-point underdog. This game is being played on a neutral court in Asheville.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: Look for a big emotional letdown from the Longhorns after their easy win over the Hoosiers. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. Shaka Smart’s team deserves some credit for their defensive effort as they held Indiana to just 23.9% shooting. But Indiana could not hit the side of the barn yesterday — and they deserve blame for their inability to make shots. The Longhorns limited the Hoosiers to only 6 offensive rebounds after holding Davidson to just 3 offensive rebounds in their last game. But Texas has then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 9 offensive rebounds in two straight games. Now here comes the size of another Roy Williams team at North Carolina that is 7th in the nation by pulling down 44.5% of their missed shots. This is a young team for Williams this season — but this tournament is providing him an opportunity to teach in a concentrated setting. His teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Additionally, North Carolina is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Tar Heels are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on a neutral court. While the Longhorns are talented, so is this North Carolina team — and their style of play of crashing the glass for second-chance scoring opportunities is a consistent formula to get baskets when playing in tournaments like this. 25* CBB Maui Invitational Game of the Year with the North Carolina Tar Heels (716) plus (or minus) the points versus Texas (715). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-20 |
Kentucky +4.5 v. Kansas |
Top |
62-65 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (627) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (628). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (1-1) looks to bounce back from a 76-64 loss at home to Richmond as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas (1-1) rebounded from their loss to Gonzaga to open the season with a 94-72 thrashing of Saint Joseph’s last Friday as a 20.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Kentucky opened as a small favorite in this game because of their net edge in raw talent — but the market has been all over Kansas of this one. This sets up a nice strong contrarian play with the opportunity to take the better talent as a dog getting four or so points. The Wildcats certainly looked vulnerable against a veteran and savvy Spiders team — but that offered head coach John Calipari some outstanding teaching moments for his young team. I expect a much better effort from this Kentucky team that has four freshmen in their starting lineup. In Calipari I will trust — his teams have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home. The Wildcats have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread setback. Kentucky managed only five assists on Sunday which is certainly an issue that Calipari will address in sharing the basketball better. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not registering at least nine assists in their last game. Kentucky did lose their top six scorers from last season — and Keion Brooks is injured for this game after being the team’s only regular returning player from last season. But Calipari also brought in a couple of veteran transfers in seven-footer Olivier Sarr who was a third-team All-ACC player for Wake Forest last season along with Davion Mintz who scored 9.7 PPG for Creighton two years ago. Kansas will be at a size disadvantage in this game as they were against Gonzaga who shot 64.5% against them while retaining a +9 rebound edge against the Jayhawks. Kansas may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a win by at least 15 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. This Kansas team was poised to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament last year — but they lost their top two players from that team in Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike who accounted for 31.8 PPG. This Jayhawks team lacks a go-to scorer. And while this remains a very good team, the elite talent that Bill Self has been able to attract in the past is starting to thin out given the toll of years of NCAA investigations. Gonzaga simply outclassed them — so much so, that some experts are describing that Bulldogs team as one of the best collegiate teams in the last ten years. Maybe … but they have played two games together, so let’s not overreact.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas may win this game — but Calipari will have his team ready to play their best game of the season. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s — and the Jayhawks have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games with the over/under in the 140 to 149.5 point range. 25* CBB Champions Classic Game of the Year with the Kentucky Wildcats (627) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-30-20 |
Texas State v. Mississippi State -6.5 |
Top |
51-68 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (872) minus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (871). THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (0-2) remained winless this season after losing to Liberty on a neutral court in Melbourne, Florida last Thursday as a 4.5-point favorite. Texas State (2-0) remained unbeaten after their 75-63 win over Texas A&M Corpus Christi yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State needs a win after losing both their games in Florida last week — they also lost to a solid Clemson team. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their 22 games after a double-digit loss under head coach Ben Howland. And while they did not cover the point spread in either of those games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Rowland led a team that won their third-straight 20-win season last year but the decision of sophomore Robert Woodard to go pro left this team in rebuilding mode. This is a sophomore-laden group with talent that should continue to improve. Tolu Smith, a 6’10 sophomore transfer from Western Kentucky, has averaged 16.0 PPG while adding 9.5 Rebounds-Per-Game. Sophomore guard D.J. Stewart has added 16.0 PPG along with 3.0 Assists-Per-Game. This young team should benefit from the weekend of practice under Howland after their initial two games in Florida. Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 61 home games with the Total listed in the 135 to 139.5 point range. Mississippi State has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Texas State faces a challenging travel day playing without rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing their second game in three days. Additionally, the Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a point spread win. This will be this team’s toughest test of the season after opening their season with a win against the private schoool University of Mary Hardin-Baylor. Texas State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: In addition to the situational edge the Bulldogs have for this game having been at home all weekend before hosting this game, they also have a big edge in coaching. Terrence Johnson is the Bobcats’ interim head coach after Danny Kaspar was let go in September after the revelation of several racially-charged comments to his team over the years. No offense to Johnson, but Howland has a significant experience edge who has had extra preparation time for this game — and he needs the win. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (872) minus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (871). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-20 |
Lakers -7.5 v. Heat |
Top |
102-96 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (707) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (708) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (66-23) lost their first game in the NBA Finals on Sunday with their 115-104 upset loss as a 9-point favorite. Miami (57-34) still trails by a 2-1 margin in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles has responded with victories in all three of their postseason losses this year — and their average winning margin in those games is+13 Points-Per-Game. They have also covered the point spread in all 3 games this season when they lost by double-digits as a favorite laying at least 6 points. The Lakers were flat in Game Three. They shot just 43% from the field which was their lowest field goal percentage in their last twelve games. They allowed the Heat to make 51.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last five games. After committing only ten turnovers in Game Two, LA turned the ball over ten times in just the 1st quarter in Game Three en route to 20 turnovers for the game. Anthony Davis was slowed by committing three personal fouls in the first half. He only played 33 minutes and scored only 15 minutes after scoring at least 32 points in the first two games of this series. Davis was simply not very active on Sunday as he attempted only nine shots despite the Heat lacking credible defenders inside the paint given the injury to Bam Adebayo. Davis has failed to score at least 20 points only sixteen times this season. After a lackluster Game Three in the Western Conference Finals against Denver, Davis was spectacular in the next two games averaging 30.5 PPG. The Lakers should also score more points in transition in this game. After netting +6.1 points per 100 possession clip in transition in Game One and +1.1 points per 100 possession mark in transition in Game Two, LA had -1.4 points per 100 possession rating in Game Three. They had adequate transition scoring chances that represented 12.1% of their possessions on Sunday, but they only scored at 90.9 points per 100 possession rate. The Lakers entered this series averaging 23.3 points per game via transitions which was tops in the NBA playoffs with 18.5% of their possessions coming from transition. Los Angeles’ loss snapped a four-game winning streak — but they have still won 22 of their last 29 games after winning three of their last four games. They also have won 23 of their last 34 games after winning four of their last five contests. The Lakers are still dominating Miami on the boards. Their 50-43 advantage on the boards in Game Three was the narrowest that margin has so far been in this series. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least five boards — and this includes them covering the point spread in four of these last five situations. Miami played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding LA to 43% shooting. They received a superhuman effort from Jimmy Butler who scored 40 points with 13 assists and 11 rebounds in his first career triple-double in the playoffs. This was the second-best Game Score registered by Basketball-Reference in the playoffs since 1984 which is how far back they can measure that metric. After logging in 45 minutes to carry his team to victory, it is highly unlikely that Butler can come close to replicating that performance. Butler made 14 of his 20 shots on Sunday — but he made only 45.1% of his shots from the field during the regular season. And Butler has scored more than 30 points in nine of his 44 playoff games since he became an All-Star in 2015 — so it was a relatively rare occurrence. As it is, the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a double-digit victory as an underdog. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games on the road after scoring at least 115 points. The Heat were without the injured Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic on Sunday which made Butler’s effort even more spectacular. Dragic will probably not play in this series but Adebayo has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game with his neck injury. He wanted to play on Sunday but was not cleared by the Miami medical staff. Even if he does take the court, it remains questionable how effective he can be (as we learned, unfortunately, last night with both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley not being effective playing with injuries despite participating in practices at the end of the week).
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss were they were favored by at least 7 points. Look for LA to come out with similar intensity as they did in Game One of this series which they won by 18 points. 25* NBA Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (707) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-25-20 |
Heat v. Celtics -3 |
Top |
108-121 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (716) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (715) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (57-30) hopes to stave off elimination tonight after getting upset in Game Four of this series to the Heat on Wednesday by a 112-109 score as a 3.5-point favorite. Miami now owns a 3-1 lead in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Complacency has been the hobgoblin for this Boston team in this series. The Celtics are too often letting up in their intensity and focus. After falling behind by a 2-0 margin, they got Gordon Hayward back in Game Three who helped them with that game by a comfortable 117-106 score. And while many pundits commented on how Hayward was a series-changer with him being the right piece to counter the Miami zone defense, I worried about Boston’s determination after avoiding a disastrous 0-3 start to the series. And the Celtics came out flat on Wednesday. Jayson Tatum scored zero points while failing to get to the free-throw line even once in the first twenty-four minutes of the game. Boston went into the locker room at halftime trailing by a 50-44 score — this was their first deficit at halftime since the opening round of these playoffs. If head coach Brad Stevens is going to accomplish just one thing tonight, it will be to get his team to come out with more fire. The Celtics are still outscoring Miami by +19 points in the 1st quarter of this series. Boston has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games away from home after an upset loss. Additionally, the Celtics are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread setback. And while Game Four finished above the 212 point Total, Boston has then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games away from after a game that finished Over the Total. The Celtics are outshooting and outrebounding the Heat in this series while also shooting better from behind the arc. The reason why both these teams have each scored exactly 441 points in this series is that Boston is turning the ball over which is giving Miami additional scoring chances. The Celtics are averaging 16.0 turnovers per game while coughing the ball up in 16.4% of their possessions in this series. The Heat are averaging only 11.3 turnovers per game which is helping them take 6 more shots per game than Boston. That’s the series. Only Cleveland had a worse turnover percentage during the regular season. Stevens should be able to impart the importance of Boston paying more attention to protecting the basketball. The Celtics turned the ball over in just 13.6% of their possessions in the regular season. And Boston is scoring at a healthy 114.6 points per possession rate in this series when not turning the ball over. Hayward’s ability to knock down 3s to break the Miami zone defense still exists — the Celtics were +4.9 points per possession better with Hayward on the floor during the regular season. Boston has lost and failed to cover the point spread in four of their last six games. But the Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games away from home after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset victory. And while the last two games have finished Over the Total, the Heat have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games away from home after playing two straight Overs. Miami received a stellar effort from Tyler Herro who scored 37 points on Wednesday — and while I have appreciated that the former Kentucky Wildcat is emerging as a star, he is unlikely to replicate that performance tonight. The Heat also have an issue with Bam Adebayo not being at 100% with a wrist injury. While it looks like he will play, it is unclear how productive he can be.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games away from home when avenging an upset loss. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (716) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (715). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-24-20 |
Lakers -6 v. Nuggets |
Top |
114-108 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (709) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (710) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (62-22) lost their first game in their last seven playoff contests with their 114-106 upset loss to the Nuggets on Tuesday as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver (55-35) now trails in this series by a 2-1 margin. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles slacked with their effort on defense on Tuesday as they allowed the Nuggets to shoot 54.8% from the field which was the worst defensive effort in their last thirteen games. After allowing Denver to score 93 points after the first three quarters, the Lakers tightened things up to limit the Nuggets to just 21 points in the final twelve minutes. LA was also out-rebounded by a 45 to 25 margin while pulling down an embarrassingly sparse four offensive boards. Anthony Davis did not bother to notch his first offensive rebound until the 4th quarter. This team has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after being out-rebounded by at least ten boards in their last game. The Lakers’ effort was not as high as it has been in their six-game winning streak. But LeBron James and company should respond with a strong performance tonight as they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after winning three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after winning four of their last five games. The offensive prowess of this team has been consistent as they have shot at least 50% from the field in nine of their last eleven playoff games. Nine of their last ten playoff wins this postseason have been by more than 6 points — so when the Lakers win, they are also covering point spread expectations. And then there is James. In his career, James has seen his team take a 2-0 lead in the playoffs twenty-three times. It has been just eight times when James’ team then lost Game Three up 2-0 in the series. Only once in Game Four did James and his teammates then respond with a straight-up victory to seize the commanding 3-1 series lead. Denver has covered the point spread in the last two games in this series — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 61 games away from home after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games away from home after a point spread win. Denver played one of their best games in the postseason Jamal Murray scoring 28 points with 12 rebounds and 12 assists while Nikola Jokic added 22 points along with 10 boards. And Jeramy Grant played perhaps his best playoff game ever with 26 points while outplaying a listless Anthony Davis. The Nuggets’ 54.8% shooting percentage was the mark in their last eleven games — and they have made at least 47.3% of their shots in six straight games. But Denver may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after making at least 47% of their shots in five straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (709) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-03-20 |
Nuggets v. Clippers -9.5 |
Top |
97-120 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (736) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (735). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (53-25) returns to the court tonight after defeating Dallas in six games with their 111-97 win over the Mavericks as a 9-point favorite on August 30th. Denver (50-30) outlasted Utah in their seven-game series that culminated with their 80-78 victory as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Look for the Nuggets to suffer an emotional letdown after rallying from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Jazz. Don’t be surprised if this team looks tired tonight. Denver played their hardest game on defense in the bubble on Tuesday — they held Utah to just 38.0% shooting. But the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 47 games after a straight-up win. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after winning at least two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning at least three games in a row. Furthermore, while the Nuggets have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games away from home after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Los Angeles will be rested and ready for this game — and they are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games when playing with at least three days of rest including covering the point spread in nine of these last twelve situations. The Clippers have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when playing no more than their fifth game in the last fourteen days. And while Los Angeles has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games away from home after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Clippers have covered the point spread 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: Head coach Doc Rivers has indicated that Patrick Beverley will likely take the court tonight after missing time with his calf injury. He gives the team a big boost on defense. It will probably take a game for the Nuggets to adjust to the new challenge of facing this Clippers team. 25* NBA 2nd Round Western Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Clippers (736) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (735). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-11-20 |
Georgia Southern v. Georgia State -4.5 |
Top |
81-62 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (668) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (667) in the Quarterfinals of the Sun Belt Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Georgia State (19-12) snapped their three-game losing streak back on March 3rd with their 89-70 win over Arkansas-Little Rock as a 3.5-point favorite. Georgia Southern (19-13) advanced to the Quarterfinals of this tournament with their 82-81 win over UL-Lafayette on Monday where they were 8.5-point favorites. Georgia State is the host school for the Sun Belt tournament with the games being played in the GSU Sports Center.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Eagles shot 53.3% from the field on Monday in that win which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. But they also made only 10 of their 20 free throws — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to make more than 53% of their free throws in their last contest. Missing freebies has been an Achilles’ heel for this team as they were last in the Sun Belt by making just 67% of their free throws — and they ranked 277th in the nation overall by hitting just 67.7% of their free throws the season. Georgia Southern may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of the rest 19 games after a win by 6 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less. Now this team goes back on the road after playing their last two games at home where they make only 43.0% of their field goal attempts — so missing free throws could hurt this team. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 19 road games as an underdog getting 6 points or less. Furthermore, Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in March. Additionally, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing their second game in three days. Georgia State should have a big advantage when it comes to energy with their eight days off — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with at last a week off between games. The Panthers’ style under first-year head coach Rob Lanier emphasizes launching plenty of 3s with their four-out attack while crashing the offensive glass and using pressure to force turnovers. Georgia State is 2nd in the Sun Belt by pulling down 35.8% of their missed shots — and they are also 2nd in the conference by forcing turnovers in 20.8% of their conference opponents. The Panthers took 41.2% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play — and they rank 13th in the nation by nailing 40.3% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. Georgia State is 12-2 at home with an average winning margin of +15.2 PPG — and they were led by a stingy defense that limited their guests to just 38.8% shooting which resulted in only 68.4 PPG. The Panthers are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 home games — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Georgia State should build off the momentum of their victory over the Trojans as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a win by at least 15 points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games in expected higher scoring games with the Total set in the 150s.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia State will be looking to avenge a 79-70 upset loss at home to Georgia Southern back on February 28th where they were 5-point favorites. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Tournament Game of the Year with the Georgia State Panthers (668) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (667). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-10-20 |
Illinois-Chicago v. Northern Kentucky -4 |
Top |
62-71 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Northern Kentucky Norse (616) minus the points versus the Illinois-Chicago Flames (615) in the Finals of the Horizon League conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Northern Kentucky (22-9) has won three of their last four games after their 80-69 win over Wisconsin-Green Bay last night as a 5.5-point favorite. Illinois-Chicago (18-16) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 73-56 upset win over Wright State yesterday as a 6-point underdog. This game will be played on a neutral court at Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NORSE MINUS THE POINTS: Northern Kentucky should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after winning a least two of their last three games. The Norse have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when playing their second game in three days. Northern Kentucky won the Horizon League tournament last season under head coach John Brannen who then took the vacated job at Cincinnati in the offseason. The Norse also lost their best player in Drew McDonald. But the program landed a veteran head coach in Darrin Horn who has a decade of head coaching experience at Western Kentucky and South Carolina along with long tenures as an assistant at Marquette and Texas. Horn could have waited for a more high profile job in his return to head coaching but he liked the opportunity at Northern Kentucky. The cupboard was not empty when it comes to talent with guards Jalen Tate and Tyler Sharpe along with forward Dantez Walton back from last season. Injuries have kept this big three from playing together often this season with Tate and Walton missing ten games and eleven games respectively this season. When Tate went down early this season, Walton raised his level of play to lead this team with talk of him perhaps being the Horizon League’s best player before he went down with an injury. But this core is healthy again and have played together for the last seven games. Northern Kentucky has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court as a favorite. Illinois-Chicago held the Raiders to just 28.3% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. But the Flames have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 after not allowing their last opponent to shoot better than 33% from the field. Illinois-Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. The Flames are one of the hottest teams in basketball — and they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games (and five of their last seven). But Illinois-Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The Flames’ biggest weakness is being too loose with the basketball as they turn the ball over in 21.2% of their possessions when playing away from home which ranks 287th in the nation. The Norse have forced turnovers in 20.1% of their opponent’s possessions in their last ten games which is 81st best in the country over that span.
FINAL TAKE: Northern Kentucky will have the additional motivation tonight to avenge a 73-43 loss at home to Illinois-Chicago back on February 16th despite being a 10-point favorite in that game. 25* CBB Horizon League Conference Game of the Year with the Northern Kentucky Norse (616) minus the points versus the Illinois-Chicago Flames (615). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-09-20 |
St. Mary's v. BYU -3.5 |
Top |
51-50 |
Loss |
-106 |
6 h 30 m |
Show
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At 11:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (894) minus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (893) in the semifinals of the West Coast Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: BYU (24-7) takes the court again tonight having won nine straight games after their 81-64 victory at Pepperdine back on February 29th as a 6.5-point favorite. Saint Mary’s (24-7) advanced to the semifinals of this tournament with their 89-82 victory over Pepperdine in double-overtime on Saturday as a 7-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory over a conference rival where they scored at least 80 points. The Cougars are an outstanding shooting basketball team — they are 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while leading the nation by making 42.0% of their shots from behind the arc. BYU made 53.1% of their shots in their victory over the Waves. That was the third straight game where the Cougars shot at least 48.4% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after making at least 47% of their shots in three straight games. BYU has also scored at least 81 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 80 points in three straight games. The Cougars make 49.2% of their shots away from home which results in them scoring 77.1 PPG — and they lead the nation with a 42.4% shooting percentage from 3-point land when playing on the road. BYU also leads the West Coast Conference by forcing turnovers in 19.0% of their opponent’s possessions. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored. Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. And while the Gaels have played four straight games Over the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing at least three straight Overs. BYU has a field goal percentage of 50.4% — and Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 52 road games against teams who make at least 48% of their shots. The Gaels also allow their opponents to make 35.4% of their shots from behind the arc when they are playing away from home. Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games when playing on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. The Gaels have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games played on a neutral court as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Saint Mary’s will be looking to avenge an 81-79 loss at BYU back on February 1st — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Game of the Year with BYU Cougars (894) minus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (893). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-08-20 |
North Dakota +6 v. South Dakota |
Top |
74-71 |
Win
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100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
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At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the North Dakota Fighting Hawks (863) plus the points versus the South Dakota Coyotes (864) in the Quarterfinals of the Summit League conference tournament. THE SITUATION: North Dakota (12-17) has lost their last two games after losing at South Dakota last Saturday by a 77-67 score as a 7.5-point favorite. South Dakota (20-11) snapped a three-game losing streak with that victory. This game is being played on a neutral court in Sioux Falls.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: North Dakota made only 5 of their 10 free throw attempts in that game which is uncharacteristic for this team that ranks 22nd in the nation by making 76.6% of their free throws this season. The Fighting Hawks have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to shoot better than 53% of their free throws in their last game. This is a good shooting basketball team that ranks 25th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 52.4% when playing away from home on neutral courts or hostile environments. North Dakota is led by an All-League performer in guard Marlon Stewart. This team usually plays its best basketball in tournament situations. The Fighting Hawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 tournament contests — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games in the Summit League conference tournament. Furthermore, North Dakota has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in March. Additionally, the Fighting Hawks are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games played on a neutral court — and they are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games on a neutral court as an underdog. South Dakota does nail 39.0% of their 3-pointers — but North Dakota has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who shoot at least 37% from 3-point land. The Coyotes shot 54.2% from the field in their victory last Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. But this South Dakota team shoots only 45.1% when playing any from home. While the Coyotes rank 9th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.8%, that number drops to a 51.6% clip when they are playing away from home arena. South Dakota has failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. The Coyotes win over the Fighting Hawks finished below the 155 point total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And in their last 7 games played with at least seven days of rest, South Dakota has failed to cover the point spread 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: The Coyotes swept the two regular-season games with North Dakota this season as they also defeated them on the road by an 82-68 score on February 8th. This is considered a semi-home game for South Dakota with it being played in Sioux Falls — but it is still 116 miles away from their home campus in Vermillion. Look for the Fighting Hawks give the Coyotes their biggest fight in this single-elimination contest. 25* CBB Summit League Game of the Year with the North Dakota Fighting Hawks (863) plus the points versus the South Dakota Coyotes (864). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-07-20 |
Kentucky +3.5 v. Florida |
Top |
71-70 |
Win
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100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
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At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (615) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (616). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (24-6) saw their eight-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 81-73 upset loss at home to Tennessee despite being an 8.5-point favorite. Florida (19-11) has won two of their last three games after their 68-54 win at Georgia as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Kentucky allowed the Volunteers to make 52.8% of their shots which was not only the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage for them all season but also the worst defensive performance in their last twenty games. The Wildcats should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They also have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three games. Now Kentucky goes back on the road where they are 8-4 this season. The deeper analytics rank the Wildcats as the 6th best road team in the nation when looking at Adjusted Net Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Wildcats have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a win on the road against an SEC rival. The Gators have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after allowing no more than 60 points in their last contest. And while Florida has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Gators return home where they are 11-3 this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games on their home court. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 18 home games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: The Gators are looking to avenge a 65-59 loss at Kentucky back on February 22nd — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 25* CBB SEC Underdog of the Year with the Kentucky Wildcats (615) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (616). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-20 |
Georgia Tech v. Clemson -4 |
Top |
65-62 |
Loss |
-108 |
17 h 37 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (854) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (853). THE SITUATION: Clemson (15-14) has lost two of their last three games with their 70-58 loss at Virginia Tech as a 1.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Georgia Tech (16-14) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 73-57 win over Pittsburgh on Wednesday as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Clemson looks to bounce-back from one of their worst games of the season against the Hokies. They made only 35.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. They also allowed Virginia Tech to make 54.2% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed all season. The Tigers allowed Florida State to make 50% of their shots in their previous game — but they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 home games after allowing two straight opponents to shoot at least 50% of their shots. Head coach Brad Brownell’s team has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with one or no days of rest. They return home where they are 11-5 this season with an average winning margin of +8.3 PPG. The Tigers play the 32nd stingiest defense in the nation when playing at home according to their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — they limit their guests to just 40.4% shooting which translates into only 62.6 PPG. Clemson should shoot better tonight — they have still made 47.9% of their shots over their last five games even after the difficult shooting effort against the Hokies. Clemson takes tons of 3s — but they do lead the ACC by making 53.2% of their shots inside the arc. Their efficiency inside the arc improves at home as they are making 56.5% of their 2-point shots which is the 26th best mark in the nation. Georgia Tech does hold their opponents to just 40.2% shooting — but the Tigers have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after fifteen games into the season when facing a team that does not allow their opponents to shoot better from 42% from the field. And while the Yellow Jackets shoot 45.3% from the field, Clemson has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who make at least 45% of their shots. Georgia Tech may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by at least 15 points. They made 49.1% of their shots in what was the best shooting effort in their last four games. They also held the Panthers to 30.9% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last fourteen games. But this will be the Yellow Jackets third game since Saturday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing their third game in seven days. Additionally, Georgia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two straight games against conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least three in a row against ACC foes. The Yellow Jackets go back on the road where they are 6-8 this season. Georgia Tech has covered the point spread in five of their last six games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 road games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Jackets have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 road games with the Total set in the 130 to 134.5 point range. Georgia Tech has two weaknesses that undermine the tough defense they play for head coach Josh Pastner. The Yellow Jackets foul too much to give their opponents freebies at the charity stripe — especially on the road. Georgia Tech ranks 315th in the nation with an opponent’s Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 44.4% when playing away from home. The Yellow Jackets also turn the ball over in 22.8% of their possessions which is 342nd in the nation — and Clemson forces turnovers in 19.9% of their opponent’s possessions which is a solid 105th best in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: Clemson will have revenge on their minds as well for this game after losing to Georgia Tech in Atlanta by a 68-59 score back on February 25th. Not only have the Tigers covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities to play with revenge but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when looking to avenge a loss where they did not score at least 60 points. 25* CBB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Clemson Tigers (854) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (853). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-20 |
Illinois State v. Drake -4.5 |
Top |
65-75 |
Win
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100 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
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At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Drake Bulldogs (712) minus the points versus the Illinois State Redbirds (711) in the first round of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Drake (18-13) has lost three straight games after their 70-43 loss at home to Northern Iowa as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Illinois State (10-20) has won two of their last three games with their 71-60 upset win at Evansville as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. The Missouri Valley Conference tournament is played on a neutral court at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Drake made only 30.2% of their shots which was the lowest shooting mark in their last twenty games. The Bulldogs made only 3 of their 21 shots from behind the arc (14.3%) in their loss to the Panthers — but the have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road after a game where they did not make at least 20% of their 3-point attempts. Drake should shoot better tonight as they have made 36.3% of their shots from downtown in their last ten games away from home in games played on neutral courts and true road games. The Bulldogs should respond with a strong effort as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a double-digit loss which includes them covering the point spread in those last four opportunities. Drake has been a reliable team when playing on neutral courts as well as they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games on a neutral court — and they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games played on a neutral court when favored. Illinois State played their best defensive game of the season against the Purple Aces by holding them to just 32.8% shooting. But the Redbirds are only 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. They stay on the road where they are just 1-14 this season with an average losing margin of -10.4 PPG. Illinois State allows their opponents to make 47.2% of their shots when playing away from home which results in them scoring 75.5 PPG. They also make just 42.2% of their shots in those fifteen games away from Normal. The Redbirds have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral court. Illinois State is also just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games when playing as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Drake will be looking to avenge a 57-53 upset loss at Illinois State where they were 1.5-point underdogs back on February 22nd. The Bulldogs play sound fundamental basketball as they made 52.9% of their shots inside the arc which is 2nd best in the MVC. They also hold their opponents to just 46.0% shooting inside the arc which is 2nd best in the Missouri Valley Conference. Illinois State may struggle to score as they make only 45.9% of their shots inside the arc which is 10th in the conference. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year with the Drake Bulldogs (712) minus the points versus the Illinois State Redbirds (711). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-04-20 |
Georgetown v. Creighton -12.5 |
Top |
76-91 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Creighton Bluejays (778) minus the points versus the Georgetown Hoyas (777). THE SITUATION: Creighton (22-7) saw their five-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 91-71 upset loss at St. John’s as a 5.5-point favorite. Georgetown (15-14) has lost four games in a row after their 66-63 loss at home against Xavier as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUEJAYS MINUS THE POINTS: Creighton played one of their worst games of the season after perhaps enjoying their most positive stint of the year during their previous five-game run. The Bluejays allowed the Red Storm to make 55% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last twenty-three games. They also made only 37.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. But Creighton has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 15 points. The Bluejays have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread defeat. Creighton has still won nine of their last eleven games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning at least six or seven of their last eight games. The Bluejays return home where they are 16-1 this season with an average winning margin of +15.7 PPG. Creighton holds their opponents to just 39.7% shooting from the field — and they also make 49.5% of their shots at home which translates into 83.1 PPG. The Bluejays have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on their home court with four victories all by at least 11 points. Creighton has also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 home games against teams who do not have a winning percentage better than 40% on the road. Additionally, the Bluejays have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 150 to 154.5 point range. This team ranks 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency according to KenPom — and the analytics also say they have the best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home. Creighton has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games as a favorite in the 6.5 to 12 point range — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. Georgetown has been reduced to an eight-man rotation after four programs left the program in December. Head coach Patrick Ewing’s team will be furthered shorthanded tonight with Omer Yertseven and Mac McClung both doubtful with ankle and foot injuries. Those two players are the Hoyas’ top two possession and shot takers on the team — so their potential loss is devastating. As it is, Georgetown has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They are making only 41% of their shots over their last five games which have resulted in them scoring only 67.8 PPG. Now they go back on the road where they are just 4-6 — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road. This team struggles in defending the perimeter as they rank 302nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 35.9% of their shots from behind the arc — and they allow their home hosts to nail 37.5% of their shots from 3-point land which is 298th in the nation. Creighton is 5th in the nation by making 42.1% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. The Hoyas have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Furthermore, Georgetown has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Creighton will be motivated to avenge an 83-80 loss at Georgetown back on January 15th. The Bluejays have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games when avenging a narrow loss by 3 points or less. 25* CBB Big East Game of the Year with the Creighton Bluejays (778) minus the points versus the Georgetown Hoyas (777). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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