11-05-21 |
Grizzlies v. Wizards -2 |
Top |
87-115 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Washington Wizards (538) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (537). THE SITUATION: Washington (5-3) has lost two in a row after their 109-100 upset loss to Toronto as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Memphis (5-3) has won three of their last four games after pulling off their second straight upset win against Denver on Wednesday in a 108-106 upset victory as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WIZARDS MINUS THE POINTS: Washington should rebound with a strong effort tonight. The Wizards have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. Washington is also 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. And while the Wizards have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Led by Bradley Beal, the Wizards made the playoffs last season. And while he is no longer playing alongside a second superstar in Russell Westbrook, the haul Washington got back in trading him to the Lakers has given this team intriguing depth. The Wizards brought back Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Montrezl Harrell in the deal — and they also added Spencer Dinwiddie via free agency in the offseason. Washington stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 home games with the Total set at 220 to 229.5 point range. Additionally, the Wizards have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games when favored. Memphis made 51.9% of their shots on Wednesday to pull off their second-straight upset win against the Nuggets this week. That was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. But the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a close win by three points or less at home. Memphis goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Grizzlies have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Memphis is playing without Dillon Brooks who is out with a hand injury. The team misses his impact on defense — the Grizzlies rank last in the NBA in Defensive Rating. Their struggles on the defensive end of the court have pulled down their Net Rating so far this season to just 24th in the league. Washington ranks 11th in the NBA with their Net Efficiency Rating entering this season.
FINAL TAKE: Kyle Kuzma has been upgraded to probable after leaving Wednesday’s game with a wrist injury. The Wizards have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Washington Wizards (538) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (537). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-21 |
Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics |
Top |
116-107 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Washington Wizards (537) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (538). THE SITUATION: Washington (2-1) won their first two games of the season before losing at Brooklyn by a 104-90 score on Monday as a 6-point underdog. Boston (2-2) has won two games in a row with their 140-129 win at Charlotte as a 1.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WIZARDS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington only made 34.7% of their shots against the Nets which was their worst shooting effort of the young season. The Wizards have bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss — and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up loss. Washington has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games when playing with one day of rest. Led by Bradley Beal, the Wizards made the playoffs last season. And while he is no longer playing alongside a second superstar in Russell Westbrook, the haul Washington got back in trading him to the Lakers has given this team intriguing depth. The Wizards brought back Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Montrezl Harrell in the deal — and they also added Spencer Dinwiddie via free agency in the offseason. Washington stays on the road where they are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games as an underdog. Boston made 49.5% of their shots on Monday to return to a .500 record — that was their best shooting effort of the season. But the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a double-digit victory. Boston has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. And in their last 4 games after scoring at least 125 points, the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread all 4 times. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games when playing with one day of rest. It is a new regime in Boston with Danny Ainge gone from the front office with Brad Stevens moving upstairs to replace him with Ime Udoka replacing him on the sideline. The rookie head coach has been shaky in his debut with some of his rotation decisions. They lost by 32 points in their first game at home this year. The Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored. Boston has their big two in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown — but is there enough support? They traded their first-round pick to bring back Al Horford and they also signed Dennis Schroeder who was a locker room problem with the Lakers last year. This group remains a work in progress — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better.
FINAL TAKE: Washington will remember their 118-100 loss the last time they played the Celtics which was in Boston on May 18th when they were a small 1.5-point underdog. The Wizards remain 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Boston. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with the Washington Wizards (537) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-21 |
76ers v. Knicks -1 |
Top |
99-112 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (520) minus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia 76ers (519). THE SITUATION: New York (2-1) had their two-game winning streak to start the season end with a 110-104 upset loss at home to Orlando as a 12-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (2-1) has won two of their first three games with their 115-103 win at Oklahoma City as a 10-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: After making 48.6% and 50% of their shots in their first two games, New York only made 37.0% of their shots against the Magic. The Knicks should bounce-back tonight. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after a point spread win. New York has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games when favored overall. They are also 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games when playing a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The 76ers continue to play under the shadow of the Ben Simmons drama — he is not playing for the team right now with him demanding a trade. The Sixers stay on the road where they are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 road games as an underdog. They are also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: New York has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 34 expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 22 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Month with the New York Knicks (520) minus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia 76ers (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-11-21 |
Suns v. Bucks -4 |
Top |
100-120 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (506) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (505) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-33) returns home down 0-2 in this series after losing Game Two by a 118-108 score as a 4.5-point underdog on Thursday. Phoenix (65-25) has won four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee only made 45.2% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. The Bucks made only 9 of their 31 shots from behind the arc. Now Milwaukee returns home where they are making 48.6% of their shots including 38.2% of their 3-point shots. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday struggled in Game Two as they combined to make only 12 of their 37 shots from the field. Both players — along with the Bucks’ role players — usually play better back on their home court. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after losing two of their last three games. The Bucks have played four straight Overs — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing at least four straight games Over the Total. Milwaukee returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 40 of their last 63 home games with the Total set in the 220s. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Phoenix made 48.9% of their shots in Game Two — but it was their nailing 20 of their 40 shots from behind the arc that really made the difference. The Suns have an effective field goal percentage of 57.3% in this series — and they are outperforming their expected effective field goal percentage of 53.2% in the first two games. The Regression Gods should make an appearance to level things out a bit. Phoenix has covered the point spread in three straight games going back to their Game Six win to close out the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Clippers. The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. And while Phoenix has played four straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least four straight Overs.
FINAL TAKE: I have seen some analytics that projected that Milwaukee should have won Game Two by a 116-104 score based on expected points from the shot quality of both teams. While I take that data with a grain of salt, we are going to win more of our bets than we lose in the long run when we are on the right side of that data. The Bucks are in this series — and they should have more of their shots fall (while seeing more of the Suns' shots not fall). Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 third games in an NBA playoff series under Mike Budenholzer. 25* NBA Sunday ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Milwaukee Bucks (506) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (505). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-08-21 |
Bucks +5.5 v. Suns |
Top |
108-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (503) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (504) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-32) looks to bounce back from their 118-105 loss on the road to the Suns as a 5-point underdog on Tuesday. Phoenix (64-25) has won three of their last four games to take a 1-0 lead in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: If there was a plus-side to Milwaukee’s 11-point loss, it was the return of Giannis Antetokounmpo who played 35 minutes and scored 20 points with 17 rebounds. The Bucks made only 45.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They also allowed Phoenix to make 46.6% of their shots, the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. Even worse, the Suns generated an Offensive Rating of 118.0 in that game which was the fourth-highest opponent’s Offensive Rating Milwaukee has allowed in this postseason. Mike Budenholzer is every pundit’s whipping boy for not making the adjustments they see (or not doing it quick enough) — but the benefit of a seven-game playoff series is to experiment with different defensive schemes. What the Bucks’ pick-and-roll defense places as their top priority is not foul — not only to protect Antetokounmpo to keep him on the court but to also not give up easy free throws. This consideration is rarely mentioned by the ankle-biters. Budenholzer may be content to let Chris Paul once again settle for mid-range jumpers — the shot that these same-ankle bitters consider the worst shot in basketball since it is not a 3-pointer nor a high-percentage shot at the rim. Or, Budenholzer may have defensive stalwart Jrue Holiday play against Paul rather than Devin Booker in Game One. Or, Budenholzer may go back to the drop defense against the pick-and-roll with Brook Lopez playing a little bit higher up the court to challenge the mid-range shot — this was very effective against Trae Young after Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals. I am not sure what Budenholzer will do while acknowledging that he is a far better defensive coach than me (and his critics). Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with one day of rest. Milwaukee should commit fewer personal fouls tonight — the Suns got to the free-throw line 26 times and made 25 of those shots from the charity stripe. The Bucks’ opponent’s free throw attempt to field goal attempt ratio of 16.3% is the lowest in the NBA. Phoenix generated a 29.6% FTA: FGA ratio in Game One — and they average 19 free throw attempts per game. The Suns will not likely have a +16 point edge from the free-throw line tonight. The Suns have played three straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after playing at least three straight Overs. Having Holiday defend Paul may be the preferred adjustment for Budenholzer since Booker’s play has declined a bit as the postseason has moved on. The young star is averaging 23.3 PPG on just 35% shooting from the field and a 22% mark from behind the arc in his last six games. He is averaging 4.3 turnovers per game during that span. Booker’s challenge in this series is heightened with him having to defend either Khris Middleton or Holiday. The season-ending torn ACL injury to Dario Saric leaves the Suns a man-short moving forward. Deandre Ayton cannot play 48 minutes. He will be subbed for either Torrey Craig or Frank Kaminsky, but both present problems for head coach Monty Williams. Craig has played 199 minutes in the playoffs with an On/Off Differential of -12.4. The Suns were outscored by 10 points when he was on the court for Game One. Kaminsky has only played 29 minutes in the playoffs while posting a -3.5 On/Off Differential. Phoenix outscored their opponents by +14.1 points per 100 possessions with Saric on the court this season. He will be missed.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 Games Twos in the NBA playoffs under Budenholzer. 25* NBA Thursday Night Special Feature with Milwaukee Bucks (503) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-06-21 |
Bucks v. Suns -5.5 |
Top |
105-118 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (502) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (63-25) comes off a 130-103 victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1-point favorite last Wednesday to win that series in six games. Milwaukee (58-31) has won two in a row and four of their last five after their 118-107 upset win in Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday to close out that series in six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix should build off their momentum rested and ready on their home court. The Suns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. Phoenix is also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win by 10 or more points on the road. Additionally, the Suns have covered the point spread in 9 straight games after a double-digit win against a fellow Pacific Division rival. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with at least three days of rest. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 50 games — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Suns have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 home games when favored by up to six points. Milwaukee may not have Giannis Antetokounmpo for this game although he has been upgraded to questionable with the knee injury that kept him out of the final two games of that series. The Bucks won both games without Antetokounmpo — but this team could be in for a letdown now. Getting only two days of rest against a team with three extra days to rest and recuperate does not help — and the league did them no favors by moving the start of this series up two days. As it is, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 38 games after winning two in a row. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. They are also 13-27-1 ATS in their last 41 playoff games as an underdog. And in their last 14 opening games to a new playoff series when playing on the road, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on April 19th in Milwaukee with Phoenix upsetting the Bucks, 128-127, as a 3-point underdog. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when avenging a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Tuesday Night Special Feature with the Phoenix Suns (502) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks |
Top |
118-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (562) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (561) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (51-38) looks to stave off elimination tonight after dropping Game Five in this series on the road against the Bucks by a 123-112 score as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. Milwaukee (57-31) has won three of the last four games in this series to take a 3-2 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Trae Young is listed as questionable with the bone bruise in his foot — he is a game-time decision. I suspect he will try to play in this elimination game but expected him to be close to 100% is probably too optimistic. But his supporting cast should play better tonight. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in the last four games in this series, the Hawks have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 21 home games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 playoff games when favored. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been declared out for tonight’s game — so it will be Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday carrying the offensive load again tonight. They both had big offensive games — Middleton scored 26 points with 13 rebounds and eight assists and Holiday scored 25 points with 13 assists and six rebounds. Brook Lopez also had his best game in the series with 33 points on 14 of 18 shooting. It is unlikely these four players are as effective tonight — especially back on the road in Atlanta. The Bucks raced out to a 14-point lead at the end of the first quarter by scoring 36 points. 28 of those points were in the paint with Milwaukee catching Atlanta too lax with their interior defense. The Hawks tightened up on defense after that. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after winning four of their last five contests. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the playoffs as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when playing at home and avenging a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Atlanta Hawks (562) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-01-21 |
Hawks v. Bucks -2.5 |
Top |
112-123 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (541) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (56-31) looks to bounce back from their 110-88 upset loss on the road against the Hawks as a 5.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Atlanta (51-37) had lost the previous two games in this series before Game Four.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a war of attrition between two flawed basketball teams now facing the challenge of adjusting to significant injuries. I waited for the early afternoon injury updates to make my final calls on this game. Giannis Antetokounmpo was declared out for tonight’s game at 1:30 PM ET with his sore left knee. Trae Young is questionable with the bone bruise in his right foot — he will be a game-time decision. Even if he plays, it remains a separate question as to how effective he will be if less than 100%. The injury updates are only half the news that interests me — how this impacts the line movement is the other important dynamic to consider. The line is stabilizing with the Bucks favored in the 3-point range — and I think they win this game comfortably by more than one scoring possession. The supporting cast for Milwaukee is better than the supporting cast of the Hawks. Frankly, Khris Middleton may be the team’s best player — or, at least, their most reliable player on the offensive end of the court. He only made 6 of 17 shots on Tuesday — including missing all seven of his 3-pointers — in scoring just 16 points. I’m not saying he is Michael Jordan circa 1993. I think the Bucks are a system team that is well-coached by Mike Budenholzer — and the ankle-biting critics of Budenholzer wildly overrate how good this team (and Antetokounmpo) is in the postseason. Simply put, Middleton and this Bucks team should play better at home — especially after their embarrassing effort on Tuesday. I still think they rally to win Game Four in the second half if not for the Antetokoumpo injury — he left in the third quarter when they had cut their halftime deficit to just 10 points. Milwaukee only made 39.3% of their shots in Game Four which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They only made 8 of their 30 shots (21%) of their shots from behind the arc. They should shoot better tonight — the Bucks shot 48.5% from the field on their home court with a 38.3% mark from behind the arc. Milwaukee should also tighten up on defense after allowing the Hawks to make 50.6% of their shots, the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. The Bucks have bounced back to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 63 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. Milwaukee has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score at least 90 points. The last three games in this series have finished Under the Total — and the Bucks have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games after playing their last two games Under the Total. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. And Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games after winning two of their last three games. Atlanta’s secondary players stepped up knowing they would have to be at their best to compensate for the absence of Young. Their 50.6% shooting effort was their best performance in 10 games. And by holding the Bucks to a 39.3% field goal percentage, they played their best defensive game in their last 11. I suspect that a short-term boost cannot be sustained. And even if Young returns to the court tonight and is close to 100%, I suspect the Hawks to be flat tonight — even (or especially) against a team without Antetokounmpo. We see situations like this all the time in the regular season. As it is, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset win as a home underdog by at least 15 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win as a home underdog by 20 or more points. The injury issues for the Hawks do not end with Young. Clint Capela is questionable with an eye injury. And while Bogan Bogdanovich had his best game in his last seven contests after injuring his right knee by scoring 20 points, he had not scored more than nine points in his previous six games — so he may experience some regression tonight.
FINAL TAKE: Just as the remaining Atlanta players stepped up on Tuesday, I expect the remaining Milwaukee players to play better tonight — especially after being such a disappointment in Game Four. Like the Hawks knew they would be without Young in that game, the Bucks know the onus is on them with Antetokounmpo declared out hours before game-time. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss by 20 or more points. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Game of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-30-21 |
Suns v. Clippers |
Top |
130-103 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (531) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (532) in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (62-25) looks to bounce back from their 116-102 upset loss to the Clippers as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (57-33) still faces elimination tonight, trailing 3-2 in the series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Phoenix allowed the Clippers to make 54.8% of their shots in Game Five which was the worst defensive effort in their last 21 games. The Suns have only suffered back-to-back losses four times all season — so a better effort should be coming tonight. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Suns have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by 10 or more points. They go back on the road where they have won five of their seven games in the postseason — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They should get more out of Deandre Ayton tonight after the big man only attempted nine shots on Monday. He had been averaging 20.3 Points-Per-Game in the first four games in this series while tallying at least 18 points and 13 shot attempts in all four games. The Suns are 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the playoffs when favored. Los Angeles had their best shooting effort in their last five games with their 54.8% shooting percentage on Monday. But the Clippers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a double-digit win. Furthermore, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset victory by 10 or more points. We had the Clippers as an underdog in Game Five — but this remains a team dealing with more and more injuries. Losing Kawhi Leonard is very tough — and big man Ivica Zubac did not play due to a sprained MCL injury. He is questionable tonight. Paul George is carrying the team — but fatigue is becoming an issue. His 735 minutes played in the postseason are the most of any player in these playoffs. He logged in at least 40 minutes for the fourth straight time on Monday. Now Los Angeles returns home to the Staples Center where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games when motivated by revenge. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (531) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-27-21 |
Bucks v. Hawks +4.5 |
Top |
113-102 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (502) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (50-36) looks to bounce back from their 125-91 loss to the Bucks as an 8-point underdog in Game Two on Friday. Milwaukee (55-30) has won three of their last four games and evened this series at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta allowed the Bucks to make 52.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games after a loss on the road. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Hawks started slow (or failed to thwart the inevitable fast start from Milwaukee after they lost home-court advantage in Game One) — after trailing by six points at the end of the first quarter, they were blitzed in the second quarter by a 43-17 margin to go into halftime by a 77-45 score. Atlanta has responded from a half-time deficit of 15 or more points by covering the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games next time out. Despite the lazy and tired reputation for never making adjustments, Bucks’ head coach Mike Budenholzer made yet another change in tactics in this game by having Brook Lopez confront Trae Young higher up the court on pick-and-roll switches. This took away Young’s floater game. The Hawks’ counter requires help from his teammates — but Young only had three assists. His nine turnovers were too many — but returning home should help where his teammates tend to shoot the basketball with more proficiency. Coaches become tactical geniuses or idiots often based on how often the shots finally fall. Atlanta shoots 46.4% from the field and makes 36.6% of their 3-pointers — and those numbers improve to a 47.1% mark along with a 38.7% clip from behind the arc when they are playing at home. Look for more from Kevin Huerter who scored only 21 combined points in the first two games of this series in Milwaukee. He poured in 44 points in the final two games in the Philadelphia series. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Milwaukee’s 52.1% shooting percentage was the best shooting effort in their last 14 games. But the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win at home by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory by at least 30 points. Milwaukee has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games on the road after winning two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games after winning three of four. Now the Bucks go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 41 games with the Total set in the 220s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Milwaukee has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. The Hawks have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games when avenging a loss of 30 or more points. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Year with the Atlanta Hawks (502) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-21 |
Suns -1 v. Clippers |
Top |
84-80 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (591) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (592) in Game Four of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (61-24) had their nine-game winning streak in the postseason snapped in a 106-92 upset loss on the road against the Clippers as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (56-32) has won five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINT(S): Phoenix made only 38.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 40 games. Chris Paul returned to the court after completing his COVID quarantine but he was rusty by making only 5 of 19 shots. Devin Booker made only 5 of 21 shots while looking uncomfortable wearing the mask he will have to get comfortable with after breaking his nose in the last game. To compound matters, Cameron Payne suffered a left ankle sprain which limited him to just 4:19 minutes played. Phoenix should bounce back tonight. They have only lost back-to-back games four times this season. Paul will be better with another two days of work to get back into his routine. Booker will get used to the mask — this has rarely been a hindrance for superstars once they get acclimated to the appliance (Rip Hamilton liked it so much that he kept wearing it after his face injury healed when he was leading Detroit Pistons to a title in the 1990s). Payne is listed as probable to play tonight. The Suns have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, the Suns have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after a point spread loss. And while Phoenix has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. They are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games when favored. Los Angeles played their best game on defense in their last 12 games by holding the Suns to just 38.9% shooting. But the Clippers are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a double-digit win. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win as a home dog. Despite the triumph in Game Three, there are too many cracks in the armor for this team in what is essentially in a pick ‘em situation tonight. Kawhi Leonard is not likely to play again this postseason. Paul George is carrying the load — but he is logging a ton of minutes. He leads all players in the postseason with 653 minutes played and he has been required to play at least 40 minutes in six of his last eight games. The canary in the coal mine may have been his six turnovers in the final 14 minutes of Game Three. Marcus Morris is playing hurt. DeMarcus Cousins is unplayable since he will get burned on the pick-and-roll. And the Clippers continue to have no answer for Deandre Ayton who is scoring 20.7 PPG on 73.8% shooting in this series. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when avenging a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (591) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (592). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-15-21 |
Bucks v. Nets +3.5 |
Top |
108-114 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (572) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (571) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (54-27) looks to rebound from their 107-96 upset loss at Milwaukee as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Milwaukee (52-28) has won six of their last eight games including the last two games to even this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS PLUS THE POINTS: Brooklyn looked shellshocked and out-of-synch after Kyrie Irving injured his ankle — he only played 17:17 minutes in Game Four. Irving is out for tonight’s game. But the Nets did get some help back with Jeff Green returning to action after missing the previous six games. He played 26:33 minutes on Sunday with eight points and five rebounds. He helps on both ends of the court. Brooklyn still has Kevin Durant to carry the team — both he and his supporting cast should play better back on their home court. Durant made only 20 of his 53 shots in the last two games in Milwaukee. Joe Harris was just 3 of 13 from behind the arc in Games Three and Four. But Harris led the NBA with a 47.5% clip from behind the arc during the regular season — and he was even better at home in the Barclays Center where he nailed 49.7% of his 3-point attempts. As a team, Brooklyn only made 18 of their 65 shots from 3-point land — and that 27.7% shooting percentage is far below their 39.4% mark from 3-point land at home. Durant should play better with two days to mentally prepare for having to be the primary scorer tonight — but he should get help back at home. The Nets are 14-2 straight-up at home since the start of April — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games at home. Brooklyn has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog. And in the last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, Brooklyn has covered the point spread 6 times. Milwaukee only made 44.3% of their shots on Sunday — and it was still the best shooting effort in their last three games. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by double-digits. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 34 points in the win on 14 of 26 shooting. Despite those nice numbers, I am not buying it. Antetokounmpo continued with his struggles and antics at the free-throw line as he missed five of his ten free throw attempts. He has made only 11 of his 29 (37.9%) free throws in this series. He has the yips — and it is affecting his play on the court even when he is not on the line. His fear of dealing with the demons in his head that he uses all ten seconds allotted what the charity stripe in those of quieting them down contributes to him not playing as aggressively in attacking the basket — he doesn’t want to get fouled. His free-throw shooting in the first two games in Brooklyn was even worse as he made just 2 of his 10 shots. This makes the blue-print “wall” defense against Antetokounmpo even more effective — and it compels him to settle for 3-point shot attempts even though he has made only 4 of his 21 shots from behind the arc in this series. The Greek Freak’s good game came mostly on the heels of his teammates picked him up by making 16 of their 47 shots from 3-point land — with most of their converted 3s taking place in the first half. But the Bucks have not made more than 8 shots from downtown in any other game in this series — and they have a rough 20 of 88 (22.3%) shooting percentage from 3-point range in this series. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning two games in a row at home. And while the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And while the first four games in this series have finished Under the Total, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing four Unders in a row. Now the Bucks hit the road again where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. Furthermore, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The news that James Harden will attempt to take the court tonight as he deals with his hamstring injury. We will see if he can be effective — but he can only help the cause. Even without Harden, I think Brooklyn wins tonight (but I recommend taking the points for some insurance). 25* NBA 2nd Round Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the Brooklyn Nets (572) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (571). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-21 |
Jazz v. Clippers -4 |
Top |
106-132 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (542) minus the points versus the Utah Jazz (541) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (51-30) returns home to the Staples Center down 0-2 in this series after their 117-111 loss on the road in Game Two on Thursday. Utah (58-21) has won six straight games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Once again, Los Angeles has to dig themselves out of an 0-2 hole in this postseason. No team in NBA history has rebounded from two 0-2 deficits in the playoffs — but at least we know that the Clippers are resilient. They went on a 46-23 run when trailing by 21 points in the second half in Game Two. Head coach Tyronn Lue deployed a zone defense to help trigger the rally. But Los Angeles still allowed the Jazz to make 55.3% of their shots in that game. That was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have surrendered in their last seven games. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 55% of their shots. And while LA has allowed their last three opponents to score at least 111 points, they have then covered the point spread in 58 of their last 91 games after allowing at least 105 points in three straight games — including 13 of these 21 situations this season. The Clippers have also covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 56 games after losing two of their last three games. Returning home will help the Los Angeles role players shoot better. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Los Angeles has also coerced the point spread in 6 of their last 9 playoff games when trailing in the series. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games when favored. Utah enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 13 games with their 55.3% shooting percentage. But the Jazz have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. But now Utah goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. The Jazz are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 65 games when motivated to avenge a same-season loss. 25* NBA 2nd Round Saturday ABC-TV Playoff Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Clippers (542) minus the points versus the Utah Jazz (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-06-21 |
Mavs v. Clippers -6 |
Top |
111-126 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 3:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (574) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (573) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (50-28) forced a climactic seventh game in this series after their 104-97 win on the road against the Mavericks as a 3-point favorite. Dallas (45-33) has lost three of the last four games in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: It may look easy to take the Mavericks getting 6 or so points in this seventh game — but Los Angeles has been the dominant team in this series since making some adjustments after Game Two. Dallas was on fire with their 3-point shooting by making 47.2% and 52.9% of their 3-pointers in the first two games in this series. But the Regression Gods made their appearance and the Mavs have not been the same from behind the arc. They made only 11 of their 34 shots (32.4%) of their 3-pointers in Game Six. Ty Lue made the decision to not play Ivica Zubic when Luka Doncic is on the court since he was getting torched on the pick-and-roll. Going with a small lineup of Reggie Jackson and Nicolas Batum for Zubic and Patrick Beverley has been a game-changer for the Clippers. Beverley is not the same player on defense — and he has never been much of a scorer, so he is a liability if he has lost his defensive prowess. I’m not surprised that Los Angeles blew Game Five at home after picking themselves off the mat to win both games in Dallas. But facing elimination, Kawhi Leonard is finally defending Doncic — he held him to 2 of 6 shooting in the times he guarded him on Friday. I expect Leonard to take on this defensive assignment even more for this Game Seven. And how far away is Doncic from being 100% with the neck injury has been dealing with for most of this series? Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with one day of rest. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 22 home games when laying 6.5 to 12 points. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a loss at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games with one day of rest. And in the last 9 games after losing three of their last four games, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in all 5 games. For Dallas to win, Doncic will have to carry the team. Kristaps Porzingis is a big disappointment coming off a 7-point game on Friday. He has not reached double-digits three times in this series.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks had their chance to win this series on Friday. The challenge is even harder now, even though they have won three times already in the Staples Center. They will play hard — but expect the Clippers to eventually pull away. Dallas remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 playoff games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. 25* NBA 1st Round ABC-TV Playoff Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Clippers (574) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-05-21 |
Bucks v. Nets -3.5 |
Top |
107-115 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (562) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (561) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (52-25) returns to the court for the first time since Tuesday after they completed their four-game sweep of Boston in Round One of the playoffs with their 123-109 victory as a 12.5-point favorite. Milwaukee (50-26) has won seven of their last eight games after sweeping against the Heat in four games after their 120-103 victory on the road in Miami as a 4-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS MINUS THE POINTS: Brooklyn should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Nets have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. After Kevin Durant missed 38 regular-season games, James Harden missed 14 games in the regular season, and Kyrie Irving missed 18 regular games, the Brooklyn Big Three added five games to the 13 total overall this season that they have played — and the results were impressive. They scored 128 points per 100 possessions against the Celtics in the opening round of the playoffs — and I don’t care if the Boston defense was not elite, that is an incredible number against a playoff team. The Nets host Game One where they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games when favored in the Barclays Center. Brooklyn has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Nets have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 47 games with the Over/Under set at 230 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Milwaukee may suffer an emotional letdown after exorcising the demons of getting upset by the Miami Heat in the playoffs last postseason. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after winning three games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Milwaukee may suffer from rest with the week off — they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with at least three days of rest. They go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Bucks are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games in the playoffs as an underdog. Milwaukee lost an important piece last round with the season-ending foot injury to Donte DiVincenzo.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee won the last meeting between these two teams with their 124-118 victory at home on May 4th. The Bucks have yet to play the Nets with Durant, Harden, and Irving all on the court — and the Nets have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 68 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA 2nd Round Saturday TNT Game of the Year with the Brooklyn Nets (562) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-03-21 |
Nuggets v. Blazers -4.5 |
Top |
126-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (546) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (545) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Portland (44-33) looks to rebound from their epic 147-140 double-overtime loss at Denver as a 2-point underdog on Tuesday. Denver took a 3-2 lead in the series with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: Damian Lillard was sublime in Game Four with 55 points on 17 of 24 shooting which including tying a playoff record with 12 made 3s — and he bailed out Portland with buzzer-beating shots in regulation and the first overtime to keep his team alive. But his teammates did not offer much help. The Blazers’ supporting cast to Lillard made only 1 of their 19 shot attempts in overtime. Returning home should help where the role players are more comfortable. Portland has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on the road. Additionally, the Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Now after winning Game One of this series, Portland has lost and failed to cover the point spread in three of the last four games in this series. But the Blazers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after losing three of four — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after only covering the point spread once in their last four games. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored. Michael Porter, Jr. had his best game in the playoffs on Tuesday by nailing 10 of his 13 shots en route to 26 points — but he sleepwalked his way through in Game Four and has yet to demonstrate the consistency to be a reliable Number Two to Nikola Jokic. Head coach Michael Malone has gotten surprisingly great play from the quartet of guards he is deploying in lieu of the injuries to Jamal Murray, Will Barton, and P.J. Dozier. Austin Rivers, Facundo Campazzo, Markus Howard, and Monte Morris have combined to average 41.2 PPG in this series while averaging 7.6 made 3-pointers per game on 42.7% shooting from behind the arc. With the three injured guards higher up on the depth chart still out tonight, can this group continue to put up these numbers? Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight playoff games when they were leading in the series — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 opportunities to close out a series.
FINAL TAKE: Portland has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 opportunities to exact same-season revenge. 25* NBA 1st Round Northwest Division Playoff Game of the Year with the Portland Trail Blazers (546) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (545). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-01-21 |
Lakers +5.5 v. Suns |
Top |
85-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
23 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (525) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (526) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (45-32) looks to rebound from their 100-92 upset loss at home to the Suns as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. Phoenix (53-23) has won five of their last seven games after evening this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: The tenor of Game Four changed with Anthony Davis suffering a groin injury that limited him to playing only 19:24 minutes. He is doubtful to play on Tuesday with what has been described as a painful injury. Even without Davis, Los Angeles will be tough to beat. LeBron James remains the straw that stirs the drink in the NBA. His “supporting cast” should step up for this game. And head coach Frank Vogel has two days to make adjustments specific for the Suns. The Lakers played 18 games this season with James on the court playing without Davis. Los Angeles won 11 of these contests. Los Angeles outscored their opponents by +7.1 points per 100 possessions with James on the court without Davis. This Lakers’ roster is improved from the one that won the NBA title in the bubble last year. Dennis Schroeder and Montrezl Harrell are nice new additions that can provide scoring. Wes Matthews is a veteran who can provide reliable minutes. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is listed as questionable with a knee injury — but he says he is feeling better. His return will help. Expect Alex Caruso and Marc Gasol to play more minutes in place of Davis. Caruso is a valuable swiss army knife energy player. And while Gasol’s minutes have declined as the season went on in his first in a Lakers’ uniform, that is because he is not a good fit with Davis on the court. He is a valuable piece without Davis being available. As it is, Los Angeles should shoot better tonight after making only 39.5% of their shots on Sunday, the lowest shooting effort in their last 11 games. They made just 13 of their 40 shots from behind the arc — they should improve on that 32% shooting mark. The Lakers make 36.3% of their 3-pointers on the road. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss to a divisional rival. The Lakers have also covered 4 of their 6 games played this season on the road with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 32 playoff games when tied in the series. Phoenix played their best defensive game in their last 22 games by holding the Lakers to 39.5% shooting. But the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after an upset victory on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games when playing at home after an upset win on the road as an underdog. Additionally, Phoenix is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread win. Even with Davis playing less than 20 minutes on Sunday, Phoenix only scored 100 points. The Suns are only hitting 33% of their shots from behind the arc in this series. The Lakers will continue to play stout defense. Los Angeles led the NBA in the regular season by holding their opponents to just 106.8 points per 100 possessions — and this includes Davis missing a big chunk of the season. Furthermore, the Suns are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: This is the game where the lack of playoff experience for this Suns team (outside Chris Paul and Jae Crowder) will likely play a role. Phoenix may win this game — but In LeBron, I Trust to make this contest a coin flip at the end (at least). James missed six of his seven shots from behind the arc on Sunday — he will play better. The Lakers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games when avenging a loss at home. 25* NBA 1st Round Pacific Division Underdog of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (525) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-21 |
Nuggets v. Blazers -4 |
Top |
95-115 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (574) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (573) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Portland (43-32) has lost the last two games in this series with their 120-115 upset loss to the Nuggets as a 4-point underdog on Thursday. Denver (49-26) has won five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: Portland only shot 45.0% from the field on Thursday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last five games. They made only 14 of their 45 shots from behind the arc — and they made four straight 3s late in the game (before missing a 66-foot attempt at the buzzer) to make the score appear closer than it was for most of the game which would have changed the dynamic of the contest. After dealing with a host of injuries impacting Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum along with many of the supporting cast, when this team got healthy again, they nailed 43.2% of their 3-pointers from April 27th to the end of the regular season. For the year, the Blazers ranked sixth in the NBA by making 38.5% of their 3-pointers. They should shoot better tonight. Portland has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Trail Blazers have lost and failed to cover the point spread in the last two games. But not only has Portland covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after losing two in a row — and they have covered the point spread 9 of their last 13 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Head coach Terry Stotts made an adjustment at half-time to go small with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson at center rather than Enes Kanter when starter Jusuf Nurkic needs a breather. The Blazers were outscored by a 16-1 margin when Kanter subbed for Nurkic in the first half. Kanter is simply too much of a liability on defense — and that is before he tries to defend the league MVP Nikola Jokic. Portland was +10 when Kanter was off the court in Game Three — and they even outscored the Nuggets when Stotts went small in the second half without Nurkic on the court. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored. Portland has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 playoff games when trailing in the series. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after an upset win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two in a row against a Northwest Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Nuggets will once again be playing without three of their top five guards on the depth chart with Jamal Murray out the season and Will Barton and P.J. Dozier still out with injuries. Denver got spectacular performances from Austin Rivers and Facundo Campazzo. Rivers nailed five 3-pointers including three with under two minutes to go which were all daggers. Campazzo has 11 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists. But Campazzo is a 30-year old rookie and Rivers was out of the league after being dropped by Oklahoma City (!) two months ago. Can these two guards replicate their performances? I doubt it. As it is, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when leading in the playoffs.
FINAL TAKE: Portland has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when avenging a loss at home to their opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. 25* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month with the Portland Trail Blazers (574) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-21 |
Bucks v. Heat +2 |
Top |
113-84 |
Loss |
-113 |
4 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (552) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (551) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (40-34) has lost the first two games of this series with their 132-98 loss at Milwaukee as a 5-point favorite on Monday. Milwaukee (48-26) has won five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: On the heels of a 34-point loss in Game Two, many pundits are forgetting that this Miami team was in a possession-for-possession battle with the Bucks in the opening game of this series which they lost on a buzzer-beating shot — in overtime. There is a perception held by some that the Heat were flukes in making the NBA Finals last year. While perhaps the team was fortunate and in a better position to make a deep playoff run in the bubble last fall, they should be immediately discounted because of one bad first half. Milwaukee raced out to a 78-51 halftime lead on Monday — but Miami has then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after trailing by at least 20 points in their last game. Additionally, the Heat are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Miami has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 130 points in their last game. Now after playing their last four games on the road, the Heat return home for the first time since May 13th. Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing their last four games on the road — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home. The Heat have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games as an underdog. Milwaukee is likely due for a letdown after their easy win in Game Two. They nailed 22 of their 53 shots from downtown at a sizzling 42% rate. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win at home by at least 20 points. The Bucks have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 30 or more points. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding a halftime lead of 20 or more points. Milwaukee has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning their last two games at home. The Bucks hit the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. Furthermore, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Miami only made 8 of their 28 shots from 3-point land (29%) on Monday after they nailed 20 shots from downtown in Game One. The same Heat culture that helped them thrive in the bubble should lead to a very determined effort tonight. Erik Spoelstra is a great coach — and he has plenty of pieces on the roster from which to make adjustments. A playoff series starts when a team losing on their home court, goes the adage. Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a 20-point loss on the road. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Underdog of the Year with the Miami Heat (552) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-25-21 |
Mavs v. Clippers -6 |
Top |
127-121 |
Loss |
-111 |
11 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (536) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (535) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (47-26) looks to rebound from their 113-103 upset loss to the Mavericks in the opening game of this series as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Dallas (43-30) has won seven of their last nine games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles closed out the regular season with twelve wins in their last sixteen games — but they need to get back to business after being upset in all three games of their current losing streak. One of those losses was their controversial upset loss on the last day of the regular season where they tanked the game to avoid the Lakers in the first round — the smart move since the reigning champions have a tough series of their own with the Phoenix Suns before a hypothetical “Battle for Los Angeles.” But head coach Tyron Lue needs to get his team back to playing good basketball. That should happen tonight. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss by 10 or more points at home. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George combined to make only 17 of their 40 shots from the field (42.5%) including going just 3 of 14 from behind the arc. As a team, Los Angeles made only 11 of 40 (27.5%) of their 3-pointers in Game One which was far below their 41.1% clip from downtown during the regular season. Besides interior players Serge Ibaka and Ivica Zubic, the Clippers’ top-11 players all make at least 39.7% of their 3-pointers. Los Angeles also needs to tighten up on defense after allowing the Mavericks to make at least 50% of their shots. The Clippers have let all three of their opponents during their recent losing streak make at least 50% of their shots — but they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Lue learned early in Game One that Zubac will be a liability in this series given his defense on the pick-and-roll. Luka Doncic torched him on Saturday. But Dallas is due for a visit from the Regression Gods after they made 50% of their shots from the field while nailing 17 of their 36 shots from downtown. That was the best field goal percentage in their last five games — and they did not even have the shooting of J.J. Redick who is out with a heel injury. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after an upset victory by 10 or more points. This remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games in the playoffs as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers are as healthy as they have been all season with Patrick Beverley, Serge Ibaka, and Marcus Morris all back in the mix after missing 35, 31, and 15 games respectively. Leonard and George missed 20 and 18 games as well. Los Angeles has now lost their last two games to the Mavericks after suffering a 105-89 loss at home to Dallas as a 2-point favorite on March 17th. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 110 points. LA has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with double-revenge. 25* NBA 1st Round Western Conference Playoffs Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Clippers (536) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-23-21 |
Grizzlies v. Jazz -9 |
Top |
112-109 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (516) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (515) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (52-20) goes into the postseason with seven wins in their last nine games after their 121-99 victory at Sacramento as an 11.5-point favorite last Sunday. Memphis (40-34) has won seven of their last eight games after their upset 117-112 win at Golden State as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Utah should build off the momentum from last week — they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after a double-digit win. They have also covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games after a point spread victory. And while they have covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Jazz hope that their star point guard Donovan Mitchell returns to the court tonight — he is listed as probable. Without him, the Utah Train did not derail. The Jazz won ten of their fifteen games after Mitchell’s ankle injury — and their +9.8 Net Rating over that span was tops in the NBA. Their Defensive Rating of 106.2 in their last 15 games is the best mark in the NBA. Utah is also third in the league in Offensive Rating due to a bevy of 3-point shooters. The Jazz average 43.3 shots from behind the arc per game — and they are fourth in the NBA by making 38.9% of these shots. The Grizzlies are 18th in the league by allowing their opponents to make 36.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Utah returns home where they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Jazz have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Memphis may be due for a letdown after their whirlwind week which included winning two straight single-elimination games. The team racked up the frequent flier miles — traveling from San Francisco last Sunday (after playing the Warriors to close out the regular season) back to Memphis to Los Angeles on Friday and now Salt Lake City. Playing at the higher altitude won’t help their cause either after this grueling week. As it is, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread win. Furthermore, Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Utah swept the three-game regular-season encounters between these two teams. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 playoff games as an underdog. 25* NBA 1st Round Sunday TNT Game of the Year with the Utah Jazz (516) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-21 |
Blazers +1.5 v. Nuggets |
Top |
123-109 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 10:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (511) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Denver Nuggets (512). THE SITUATION: Portland (42-30) has won six of their last seven games after their 132-116 win against Denver as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Denver (47-25) had their three-game winning streak snapped with the loss, but they avoided a first-round matchup with the Lakers which may have impacted their short-term motivation in that game.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: Portland is a team that was impacted by a barrage of injuries throughout the regular season. C.J. McCollum missed 25 games. Jusuf Nurcic missed the early part of the season — and his absence impacted the overall defensive numbers for this team. The Blazers hold their opponents to -8.7 Points-Per-100 Possessions below their PPP defensive average when Nurcic is off the court. Portland has been in playoff mode to close out the regular season to avoid the Play-In Tournament. Getting healthy again has helped. They have won ten of their last twelve games while posting the second-best Net Rating in the NBA over that span. The Blazers have the best Offensive Rating in the league during that stretch — but it is the defensive numbers that may be more important. While Portland ranks 29th in Defensive Rating for the season, they improved to 15th in their last 12 games. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 130 points in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. Portland has been reliable on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games. The Blazers have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Portland has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, the Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with at least three days of rest. While Michael Porter has stepped up his game with the scoring burden increased on him, this is a playoff series where the Nuggets will really miss Jamal Murray who suffered a season-ending torn ACL. While Portland’s Damian Lillard and McCollum are a lethal backcourt duo on offense, they can be exploited on the defensive end of the court. Denver lacks dominant scoring threats in their backcourt without Murray — and the injury shooting guard Will Barton who will miss tonight’s game compounds this problem. Austin Rivers is also questionable with an illness so the Nuggets’ are thin at the guard position which only increases their defensive challenge in slowing down Lillard and McCollum. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games in expected higher-scoring games with the Total set at 220 or higher. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. And not having their top point guard in Murray has hurt the team down the stretch — they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Portland has covered the point spread in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. While the Blazers had more at stake in their contest on Sunday since the victory ensured they avoided the Play-In, it remains telling that the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by double-digits. 25* NBA Saturday ESPN Game of the Year with the Portland Trail Blazers (511) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Denver Nuggets (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-21-21 |
Grizzlies +5.5 v. Warriors |
Top |
117-112 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (579) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (580). THE SITUATION: Memphis (39-34) has won six of their last seven games after their 100-96 win against San Antonio as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Golden State (39-34) had their six-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in their 103-100 loss at Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 5.5-point underdog. The winner of this game inherits the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs and a first-round date with Utah.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: I really like this spot for Memphis — a young but very talented team that has experience playing in these single elimination games from the bubble last season. We had the Spurs on Wednesday — I mentioned then that the Grizzlies have not been a reliable favorite. But they have been consistent when donning the role of the underdog. Memphis has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as a dog. They will not have any pressure in this game with most of the world (and the betting public) assuming that Stephen Curry will carry his team to a comfortable victory. Ja Morant is a rising superstar. The Grizzlies also have a good interior player in Jonas Valancianas who can take advantage of the lack of size of the Warriors. The seven-footer is averaging 22.0 PPG while grabbing 15.4 Rebounds-Per-Game in his last five games. He scored 29 points against Golden State in their most recent game last Sunday. Injuries have depleted the Warriors’ depth at center so it will be Draymond Green who will likely be defending Valancianas. Green is a great defender, but he is only 6’6. Memphis will also have an edge on the boards — they lead the NBA by averaging 55.8 points in the paint per game. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win at home against a Southwest Division rival. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. And while Memphis has played four straight Unders, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after playing at least three straight Unders. Golden State may have blown their playoff chances on Wednesday considering they had a double-digit lead at halftime — and they were up 98-85 with just 2:30 minutes left in the fourth quarter. They held the Lakers to just 40.7% shooting which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. Now they are expected to get past the upstart Grizzlies. But the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss on the road where they covered the point spread as an underdog. Golden State struggles against teams who rebound — they have the fourth-lowest rebounding rate in the NBA and they allow the fourth-most second-chance points in the league. The Warriors are also 24th in the NBA by turning the ball over in 14.7% of their possessions — not a great trait in a favorite. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 39 of their last 61 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 25* NBA Play-In Tournament Game of the Year with the Memphis Grizzlies (579) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (580). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-19-21 |
Spurs +4.5 v. Grizzlies |
Top |
96-100 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (567) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (568). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (33-39) limps into the postseason with four straight losses after their 123-121 loss to Phoenix as a 2-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (38-34) had their five-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in a 113-101 loss at Golden State as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio has lost ten of their last twelve games — but that does not worry me too much. Head coach Gregg Popovich has had one eye towards developing the young talent on his team for the future. This is a hard-working team with a versatile roster which will allow Popovich many options to keep his team in this single-elimination game. And with DeMar DeRozan leading the way alongside the underrated Dejounte Murray, the Spurs have veteran experience that can make big baskets. San Antonio is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. The Spurs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing at least four games in a row. The days of rest should help this team as well — they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with two days of rest. San Antonio has been capable road warriors this season — they are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games on the road and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 road games with the Total set at 220. The Spurs have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games against divisional rivals. Memphis has won six of their last eight games even after Sunday’s loss — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Grizzlies return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. This Memphis team has a very bright future — but I prefer them in the underdog role right now, in general. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. This team’s clutch numbers are underwater — they have a Net Rating of -6.1 in clutch time which is just 21st in the NBA. This makes their ability to pull away in close games harder to pull off. It is telling that they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games when favored by up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has dominated the last two meetings with the Spurs this season. They followed up a 129-112 upset win on the road as a 3.5-point underdog on January 30th with a 133-102 victory in San Antonio as a 4-point underdog on February 1st. San Antonio has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when avenging loss by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss by at least 30 points. And in their last 9 opportunities at revenge from two straight upset losses to their opponent, the Spurs have covered the point spread 6 times. Trust Pop tonight. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Year with the San Antonio Spurs (567) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-18-21 |
Wizards v. Celtics -1.5 |
Top |
100-118 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (562) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (561). THE SITUATION: Boston (36-36) limps into the postseason with five losses in their last six games after their 96-92 loss at New York as a 12-point underdog on Sunday. Washington (34-38) has won two games in a row after their 115-110 win against Charlotte as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINT(S): Boston has been one of the biggest disappointments in the regular season with their inconsistent play. Too often this season, the Celtics’ players took games off — especially on defense. But this is a team that has been hit hard by injuries and COVID quarantining issues. Their ability to make a deep playoff run took a big hit with the season-ending injury to Jaylen Brown. But this is a veteran team with plenty of playoff experience that should be able to step up their game to secure the seventh seed tonight. Kemba Walker is finally playing better after a disappointing regular season — he is scoring 29.8 PPG on 50.6% shooting in his last four games. The acquisition of Evan Fournier at the trade deadline has been proven as he has averaged 18.6 PPG on 46.9% shooting since joining the Celtics. And with Jayson Tatum leading the way, Boston will have the best player on the court (especially at crunch time). The Celtics have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after losing five or six of their last seven games — including ten of these last eleven situations. Boston has played three straight Unders — and they have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 55 games after playing at least two straight Unders. The Celtics return home after playing their last three games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing at least three in a row away from home. Washington held the Hornets to just 39.4% shooting which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 28 games. But the Wizards have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a win against a divisional rival. Washington has also failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 52 road games after a point spread loss. Bradley Beal is not 100% with a nagging hamstring, but he will play tonight. That puts more of the onus on Russell Westbrook who is a triple-double machine — but his judgment is too often lacking in crunch-time as he tries to do too much (like test his poor 3-point shooting skills). There is a reason that the Wizards have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when listed at +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Washington plays at one of the fastest paces in the league — they average 91 shots per game. But Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games in the second half of the season against teams who attempt at least 88 shots per game. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games of a playoff series under head coach Brad Stevens. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Play-In Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (562) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-08-21 |
Grizzlies -5.5 v. Raptors |
Top |
109-99 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (571) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (572). THE SITUATION: Memphis (33-33) has lost three of their last four games with their 111-97 upset loss at Detroit as a 9-point favorite on Thursday. Toronto (27-40) has lost two in a row as well as five of their last six contests with their 131-129 loss to Washington as a 2-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis allowed the Pistons to make 53.0% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 18 contests. Memphis should play better tonight. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after suffering an upset loss by 10 or more points. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. This team plays hard for head coach Taylor Jenkins. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Memphis has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games when favored. Additionally, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record. Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a loss at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. The Raptors have lost six of their last eight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. Toronto has likely played themselves out of reach to qualify for the play-in tournament with this recent slide. Their defense is letting them down — they have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.6% of their shots which has resulted in their opponent’s averaging 115.4 PPG. Head coach Nick Nurse is giving Fred VanVleet and Kevin Lowry the night off for rest — and OG Anunoby is out with a calf injury to leave the roster thin for tonight’s game. The Raptors have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games at home with the Total set in the 220s — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis will be motivated to avenge a 128-113 loss at home to Toronto on February 8th — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when avenging a loss at home to their opponents. 25* NBA Road Warrior of the Month with the money-line on the Memphis Grizzlies (571) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-30-21 |
Hawks +9.5 v. 76ers |
Top |
104-126 |
Loss |
-103 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (513) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (514). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (34-29) has lost two games in a row with their 127-83 loss at Philadelphia as a 9.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (41-21) has won two in a row with that victory against the Hawks.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: I needed to wait on the injury update this evening for Atlanta — they are just riddled with injuries right now which goes a long way to explain their 44-point loss to the 76ers on Wednesday. The Hawks announced at 6 PM ET that Trae Young will be available to play which is an upgrade to his being listed as questionable throughout the day. Clint Capela is also available to play — and Tony Snell is probable as well after missing a bunch of time with his ankle injury. Atlanta is still banged up — but the availability of these three players makes a big difference for this team that is getting around 7 points (as of this writing). The Hawks played one of the worst games of the season on Wednesday. Their 33.3% shooting percentage was the worst effort in their last 41 games. They allowed the Sixers to make 53.9% of their shots which was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last 12 games — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Atlanta has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 30 points. Additionally, the Hawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Atlanta stays on the road for their third straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing two games i a row on the road. Philadelphia may be due for a letdown after such an easy win — they played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Hawks to just 33.3% shooting. But the Sixers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. Philly has won two games in a row after their 121-90 victory against an Oklahoma City team that is a glorified collection of G-Leaguers. But the 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games after winning two in a row by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two in a row by 10 or more points at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after covering their last two games as a favorite. The Sixers have made 54.7% and 53.9% of their shots in the last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after shooting at least 50% of their shots in their last two games, and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after scoring at least 110 points in two straight games. Philly stays at home where they are just 2-5-1 ATS — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home as a favorite. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, they are 1-4-1 ATS.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. The Hawks have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss by at least 30 points to their opponent. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with the Atlanta Hawks (513) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-28-21 |
Clippers +4 v. Suns |
Top |
101-109 |
Loss |
-103 |
7 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (583) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (584). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (43-20) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 120-103 upset loss at New Orleans as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Phoenix (43-18) ended their two-game losing streak with a 118-110 win at New York as a 3-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Clippers made only 40.6% of their shots on Monday in what was the lowest shooting effort in their last six games. Los Angeles should respond with a strong effort. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 after an upset loss as a road favorite. Furthermore, LA has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a loss by 10 or more points on the road. The Clippers have also been consistent in bounce-back situations as they have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 54 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 55 games after a point spread defeat. They allowed the Pelicans to make 53.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 23 games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games on the road after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. Head coach Tyron Lue has an undermanned group tonight with Kawhi Leonard and Serge Ibaka out indefinitely with injuries, and Patrick Beverley remains on the shelf with a hand injury. Nicolas Batum is questionable with a shoulder injury. But the good news is that Paul George has been upgraded to probable with his foot injury. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. Phoenix made 54.2% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. But the Suns are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and they are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Now after playing their last five games on the road, they return home for the first time since April 17th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 30 home games after playing at least their last seven games on the road. Phoenix may not be at full strength either with Jae Crowder and Dario Saric questionable with injuries.
FINAL TAKE: The Suns are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite — and the Clippers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 trips to Phoenix to play the Suns. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Clippers (583) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (584). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-25-21 |
Kings v. Warriors -7.5 |
Top |
113-117 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (530) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (529). THE SITUATION: Golden State (30-30) has won two of their last three games after their 118-97 upset victory against Denver as a 2.5-point favorite on Friday. Sacramento (24-35) has won two of their last three games as well with their 128-125 victory against Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Stephen Curry had 32 points to carry Golden State to the upset win against the Nuggets. Curry is enjoying a monster month. In 12 games, he is scoring 38.2 PPG on 52.9% shooting from the field and a 47% clip from behind the arc. He is also averaging 6.4 Rebounds-Per-Game and 4.6 Assists-Per-Game in April. Curry will be the best player on the court — by far — tonight. The Warriors stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Golden State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when laying 6.5 to 12 points. Sacramento made 58.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 14 games. But the Kings have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. And while Sacramento has scored at least 110 points in seven straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after scoring at least 110 points in four straight games. Furthermore, the Kings have the worst Defensive Rating in the NBA. They have allowed their last two opponents to make 52.9% and 56.7% of their shots — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing their last two opponents to both make 50% of their shots. Sacramento has allowed 107 points in 13 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after allowing at least 105 points in five straight games. The Kings have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when playing their second game in five days. Sacramento will be without their best player tonight with De’Aaron Fox who is in COVID quarantine. Fox has been a one-man wrecking crew in the fourth quarter when the Kings win — he scored 30 points against the Timberwolves on Wednesday. This team is also still without Marvin Bagley III who is still out with a hand injury. Sacramento has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Sacramento crushed the Warriors in the last meeting between these two teams by a 141-119 score on March 25th. Golden State has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 55 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 25* NBA Pacific Division Game of the Month with the Golden State Warriors (530) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (529). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-25-21 |
Suns +1.5 v. Nets |
Top |
119-128 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (519) plus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (520). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (42-17) looks to bounce back from a 99-86 upset loss at Boston as a 1-point underdog on Thursday. Brooklyn (40-20) has won two of their last three games with their 109-104 win against Boston as a 3.5-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINTS: Phoenix made only 40.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games, and far below their 48.7% field goal percentage for the season. The Suns have bounced back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. This Suns team continues to be under-appreciated this season. The addition of Chris Paul took this team to another level. Devin Booker is an emerging superstar. Head coach Monty Williams usually pushes the right buttons — and he has a good bench from which to make moves. Phoenix is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Suns have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. Additionally, Phoenix is 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. The Nets held the Celtics to just 40.4% shooting from the field in what was the best defensive effort in their last six games. Brooklyn has played two straight Unders —but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after playing at least two straight Unders. The Nets have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after winning two of their last three games. Kevin Durant and Tyler Johnson are probable to play this afternoon (with James Harden still out with his hamstring issue) — but Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix looks to avenge a 128-124 upset loss at home to the Nets as an 8.5-point favorite on February 16th. The Suns have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Sunday Afternoon Special Feature with the Phoenix Suns (519) plus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-24-21 |
Pistons +4.5 v. Pacers |
Top |
109-115 |
Loss |
-102 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (505) plus the points versus Indiana Pacers (506). THE SITUATION: Detroit (18-42) has lost three of their last four games after their 106-91 loss at San Antonio as a 7-point underdog on Thursday. Indiana (27-31) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 122-116 win against Oklahoma City as a 9-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PISTONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit should play better tonight — what they lack in talent, they usually make up for with effort under head coach Duane Casey. The Pistons are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 24 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Detroit has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 straight games after a loss by at least 15 points. The Pistons have lost six of their last eight games — but they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. And while this is Detroit’s third game on the road since Wednesday, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing their third game in four days on the road. Rodney McGruder and Dennis Smith are out tonight, but the Pistons get back their best player in Jerami Grant who has been upgraded to probable with his quad injury. General manager Troy Weaver drafted well as Isaiah Stewart are Saddiq Bey both listed in NBA.com’s top-ten rookies of the season — and the team has back Killian Hayes, the number seven pick in last year’s draft back from being injured for much of the season. This trio of first rookie first-round draft picks offers this franchise an intriguing core of talent. Detroit has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by six points or less. Additionally, the Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games at home after a point spread loss. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games when playing with two days of rest. And while they have allowed at least 106 points in twelve straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 105 points in five straight contests. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Domantas Sabonis is getting the night off for rest — and this team is already without Myles Turner and T.J. Warren to season-ending injuries. Injuries may explain why the Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Detroit will have revenge on their minds after losing to the Pacers in Indiana by a 116-111 score as a 7.5-point favorite on March 24th. The Pistons are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Indiana. 25* NBA Central Division Underdog of the Year with Detroit Pistons (505) plus the points versus Indiana Pacers (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-18-21 |
Pelicans +2.5 v. Knicks |
Top |
112-122 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (569) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the New York Knicks (570). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (25-31) has lost two in a row after their 117-115 upset loss at Washington as a 3.5-point favorite on Friday. New York (30-27) has won five games in a row with their 117-109 upset win at Dallas as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): New Orleans made only 41.2% of their shots on Friday against the Wizards which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They also allowed Washington to make 46.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. The Pelicans have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. New Orleans has suffered two straight upset losses as they got stunned by these Knicks at home in the Big Easy by a 116-106 score as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. The Pelicans have covered the point spread 11 of their last 16 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after getting upset as the favorite in two straight games. And while New Orleans has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. New York made 51.2% of their shots on Friday — including 14 of their 28 shots from 3-point range — in their upset win against the Mavericks. That was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. We had Dallas on Friday — and I am reticent to to immediately fade the Knicks again today. But, I won’t avoid betting against New York simply because of the disappointing results on Friday. The fact remains that (A) the Knicks’ performance on Friday was an outlier, and (B) the evidence for the play-New Orleans side of this equation is strong. And, the evidence remains solid that New York is due for an emotional letdown. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least three games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after pulling off two straight upset wins. And while the Knicks have covered the point spread in eight straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in at least seven straight games.
FINAL TAKE: New York will be without Alec Burks who is in COVID quarantine. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging an upset loss. 25* NBA Sunday ESPN Game of the Year with the New Orleans Pelicans (569) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the New York Knicks (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-16-21 |
Knicks v. Mavs -4.5 |
Top |
117-109 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (554) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (553). THE SITUATION: Dallas (30-24) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 114-113 win at Memphis as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday. New York (29-27) has won four games in a row with their 116-106 upset win at New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS MINUS THE POINTS: Luka Doncic saved Dallas against the Grizzlies with a stumbling buzzer-beating 3-pointer to end the game (although he was probably fouled on the play — so he may have been given free throws to win the game). Doncic will be the best player on the court tonight — and Kristaps Porzingis will likely be the second-best player. The Unicorn has been on fire as of late with a 22.0 Points-Per-Game scoring average in his last ten games along with a 10.2 Rebounds-Per-Game mark on 50% shooting from the field and a 38.6% mark from downtown. Porzingis got Monday off at home against the 76ers in a game where the Mavs got blown out — but he returned on Wednesday with 21 points against the Grizzlies. Injuries and COVID slowed down this team early — but they are pretty much healthy again and playing much better basketball on both ends of the court. The Mavs have won seven of their last ten games. This team played at a historic level on offense last season — they were due to regress in that area this year. Defense has been the concern for this team — and they rank fifth-best in the NBA in Defensive Rating over their last ten games. They should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a narrow win by three points or less against a Southwest Division rival. The Mavericks have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 5 home games as a favorite, they have covered the point spread in 4 of these games. New York is a team due for an emotional letdown after pulling the upset on the road against the defensively-challenged Pelicans. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit upset win as a road underdog. Furthermore, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 6 games this season after winning three in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning four of their last five games. The Knicks have covered point spread expectations in seven straight games after their upset win against New Orleans — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after going on a seven-game point spread cover run. Tom Thibodeau’s team is just 12-17 on the road this season. And while they rank 3rd in the NBA in Defensive Rating as the team takes to Thibodeau’s defensive philosophy, they are just 22nd in the league in Offensive Rating.
FINAL TAKE: Defense goes only so far against talent such as Luka Doncic — as he showed with that game-winner on Wednesday. The Mavs are particularly dangerous when Porzingis is healthy and playing well. The Mavs won easily against the Knicks on April 2nd in a 99-86 victory. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in the second half of the season against teams winning 51-60% of their games. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (554) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-12-21 |
76ers v. Mavs +3 |
Top |
113-95 |
Loss |
-107 |
3 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (560) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (559). THE SITUATION: Dallas (29-23) has lost two of their last three games after their 119-117 upset loss at home to San Antonio as a 6-point favorite last night. Philadelphia (36-17) has won four of their last six games with their 117-93 win at Oklahoma City as a 9.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: I committed to this play this afternoon after seeing that Maxi Kleiber was upgraded to probable after missing time with a leg injury. Because Kristaps Porzingis played almost 36 minutes last night, head coach Rick Carlisle may give him the night off to rest his back for “load management” reasons. If Porzingis plays, let’s consider it a bonus — but I have to assume he will not take the court. The Mavs’ getting Kleiber back tonight helps with their front-court depth. Dallas is much better than their record. Injuries and COVID hit this team hard early in the year which contributed to their 8-13 season — but they have since put up an impressive 21-10 record. Defense has been the Achilles’ heel for this group over the last two seasons — but they have won six of their last eight games while ranking third in the league in Defensive Rating over that span. In these last eight games, the Mavericks rank fourth in the NBA in Net Rating. They lost focus on defense last night by allowing the Spurs to make 54.2% of their shots which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 29 games. They have still held their last five opponents to 43.1% shooting which has generated just 102.4 PPG. Dallas should play better tonight. They have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. The Mavericks stay at home where they have won eleven of their last fifteen games still even after last night — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 26 home games as an underdog getting up to six points, Dallas has covered the point spread 17 times. Philadelphia made 46.8% of their shots last night which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But the 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up victory — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 54 road games after allowing at least 115 points in their last game. The 76ers are playing better on the road this year with a 16-12 record — but they remain dominant at home with a 20-5 mark. Philly may have one eye on the plane ride home with this being their final game in a four-game road trip. The Sixers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing their last three games on the road. Philadelphia is 10-23-2 ATS in their last 35 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas may be without Porzingis — but they still have Luka Doncic and a very nice roster which always gives them a chance to win (when not decimated with injuries). The Mavericks will be looking to avenge a 111-97 loss at Philadelphia on February 25th — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 15 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* NBA Monday ESPN Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (560) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (559). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-05-21 |
Baylor +5 v. Gonzaga |
Top |
86-70 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (811) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (812). THE SITUATION: Baylor (27-2) has won five straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 78-59 win against Houston as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Gonzaga (31-0) survived overtime in a 93-90 buzzer-beating win against UCLA as a 14-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: In assessing this potential National Championship matchup for the last few months, I presumed I would take Baylor plus the points in a matchup between two teams that I considered roughly even. The events from Saturday make the Bears’ play a bit better. Gonzaga having to expend more physical and emotional energy by playing an extra five minutes against the Bruins. This game with UCLA also continued to expose some flaws with this, albeit, great Bulldogs’ team. Their half-court defense is not elite. They allowed the Bruins to make 57.6% of their shots — and the Zags have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. Gonzaga ranks only 55th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.5%. The Bulldogs were also a bit loose at times with the basketball — taking ill-advised chances — which might be the result of a team that has become overconfident from winning all their games. There is a reason that the last team to finish a season undefeated was during the Jimmy Carter Administration (granted, his last year in office). And the flip-side of this coin is that overconfidence can suddenly become insecurity when threatened. The pressure of making history make become a factor for Gonzaga. It is one thing for Jalen Suggs to make an improbable from 35-feet when the game is tied— it is another to make winning shots when missing the shot risks infamy for the shooter. As it is, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. And while the Zags had covered the point spread in their previous four games before not coming close to covering the point spread against UCLA, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Baylor should build off their momentum from their easy victory against a good Houston team. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a win by at least 10 points. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road when playing their second game in three days. What I like about this Bears team is that they have multiple ways to create more scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. They are sixth in the nation by pulling down 36.9% of their missed shots. They are also third in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.6% of their opponent’s possessions. But as they demonstrated against the stout Cougars defense that went into the Final Four with the nation’s top statistical defense in terms of effective field goal percentage, Baylor makes their shots more often than not. The Bears shot 52.7% from the field against Houston — including making 11 of 24 (45.8%) from behind the arc. Baylor leads the nation by making 41.2% of their 3-pointers. Leading the nation in 3s, while ranking top-six in offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers is a great formula for winning a National Championship. The Bears are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games under head coach Mark Few.
FINAL TAKE: I think the laptops may actually be undervaluing this Baylor team -- their three-week COVID pause took them a few weeks to recover and get back to playing in their earlier form. This Bears team is playing much better in April than they were in February. And this group will likely have a chip on their shoulder installed as an underdog for the first time all season. Baylor has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games as an underdog under Drew. 25* CBB Game of the Year on the Baylor Bears (811) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-03-21 |
UCLA v. Gonzaga -13.5 |
Top |
90-93 |
Loss |
-104 |
9 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:34 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (804) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (803). THE SITUATION: Gonzaga (30-0) reached the Final Four on Tuesday with their 85-66 win against USC as a 12-point favorite. UCLA (22-9) won their fifth straight game in this Big Dance with their 51-49 upset win against Michigan as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Gonzaga has won all four of their NCAA Tournament games by at least 16 points — and they should continue to roll against the Bruins. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Gonzaga has covered the point spread in all four of their games in the Big Dance — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. The Bulldogs made 50% of their shots against USC after they made 59.6% of their shots against Creighton — and they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 51 games after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. UCLA may be due for a letdown after pulling off their second straight upset victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning five games in a row. The Bruins have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points. UCLA only had 12 team assists against the Wolverines after generating only 12 team assists against Alabama in their previous game. They have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not generating more than 12 team assists in two straight games. The Bruins too often have resorted to Johnny Juzang playing “hero ball” to bail them out. The lack of ball movement will get them burned against Gonzaga. Frankly, UCLA has been pretty fortunate to make it this far in this Big Dance. They survived overtime against Michigan State and Alabama. Michigan had many opportunities to score a final basket to either force overtime or win the game in regulation. The Wolverines made only 6 of their 11 free throws. The Crimson Tide made just 11 of their 25 free throws. In their Round of 64 game against BYU, the Cougars made only 9 of 16 free throws. None of their five opponents have shot better than 33% from 3-point land — Michigan was 3 of 11 (27.2%), Alabama was 7 of 28 (25%), Abilene Christian was 4 of 19 (21.0%), BYU was 3 of 19 (15.8%), Michigan State was 6 of 18 (33%). Now UCLA faces a confident Gonzaga team that makes 37.1% of their 3-pointers.
FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in all 4 games in this NCAA Tournament. UCLA is due for a letdown and have been fortunate to survive — while the Zags are a machine. 25* CBB Final Four Game of the Year with the Gonzaga Bulldogs (804) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (803). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-30-21 |
UCLA v. Michigan -6.5 |
Top |
51-49 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 9:57 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (660) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (659). THE SITUATION: Michigan (23-4) has won four of their last five games after their 76-58 win against Florida State as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. UCLA (21-9) won their fourth game in this Big Dance with their 88-78 win in overtime against Alabama as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan held the Seminoles to just 40% shooting — and that was the highest opponent field goal percentage against them so far in this Big Dance. The Wolverines are an outstanding defensive team that ranks eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They held Florida State to under 60 points for the first time all season. Michigan also had their offense clicking by making 49.2% of their shots against a tough Seminoles’ defense whose length was supposed to overwhelm the Wolverines. Juwan Howard has this team operating an NBA-style offense with pick-and-rolls designed to create mismatches and open players. Everyone in the rotation is a competent scorer. Michigan should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win. The Wolverines are averaging 81.7 PPG in this tournament with the 76 points against Florida State being their lowest scoring output. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. The loss of Isaiah Livers has been absorbed by several players on this team. Brandon Johns took his spot in the starting lineup — he scored 14 points with six rebounds on Sunday. Johns gives the team more of a post-up presence alongside freshman phenom Hunter Dickinson as opposed to Livers who thrived on the perimeter as a slasher and 3-point shooter. He is averaging 10.7 PPG in this tournament. Wake Forest transfer Chaundee Brown is getting more playing time with Livers on the shelf — and he has scored 33 points in the last two games. Michigan has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games when favored. UCLA scored 23 points in the overtime session to smother the Crimson Tide in overtime on Sunday — but that additional energy may come back to haunt them on short rest for this game. Head coach Mick Cronin has survived this season despite losing his best player, Chris Smith, to a season-ending injury in late December. And forward Jalen Hill did not make the trip to the bubble with this team which further depleted the depth of this team. The Bruins have played one extra game in this tournament with their play-in game First Four victory against Michigan State in another overtime game. But the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least four games in a row. And while UCLA has allowed only 29 and 21 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. The Bruins are playing better on defense after a bad first half against the Spartans — but this is still an area of weakness. While UCLA ranks 54 in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 92nd in that metric when playing on the road. They allow their opponents to make 49.1% of their shots inside the arc away from Pauley Pavilion, ranking 155th in the nation. Overall, the Bruins rank 13th in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they fall to 31st in that metric on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan is one of three teams — joining Gonzaga and Baylor — who rank in the top ten in both Adjusted Offensive and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UCLA is outside the top ten in both categories. The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games played on a neutral court as an underdog in the 6.5 to 12 point range. Michigan has covered the point spread in 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 games on a neutral court — and they are 13-4-2 ATS in their last 19 games in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite. 25* CBB TBS-TV Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (660) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (659). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-29-21 |
Arkansas v. Baylor -7 |
Top |
72-81 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:57 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (654) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (653). THE SITUATION: Baylor (25-2) has won seven of their last eight games with their 62-51 win against Villanova as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Arkansas (25-6) has won three in a row with their 72-70 victory against Oral Roberts as an 11.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Baylor endured an outlier performance with their 3-point shooting on Saturday. Despite being (now) second in the nation with a 40.8% shooting percentage from the 3-point range this season, the Bears only made 3 of 19 (15.8%) shots from behind the arc against the Wildcats. Davion Mitchell missed all three of his shots from 3-point range despite entering the game as a 46% shooter from 3-point land. Jared Butler missed eight of his nine shots from behind the arc despite being a 39.9% shooter from distance. Don’t be surprised if Baylor ignites from behind the arc tonight. What is so impressive about this team is that they pulled away to win (and cover the point spread) anyways. Scott Drew had his team bypass 3-point shooting for scoring in the paint in the second half against the Villanova zone defenses — and they shot 53% in the final 20 minutes of the game. Even if the Bears’ 3s are not falling, they thrive in getting second-chance opportunities — they rank sixth in the nation by pulling down 36.8% of their missed shots. They also generate more scoring chances by forcing turnovers — they rank third in the nation in forcing turnovers in 24.8% of their opponent’s possessions. And Baylor plays stifling half-court defense that was on full display against the Wildcats as they held them to just 37.5% shooting in the second half with them missing all nine of their 3-point attempts. Throw away any remaining concerns about the Bears’ defense that struggled after a three-week COVID pause in February: Baylor has held their three opponents in this tournament to just 56.3 PPG on 41.3% shooting. This is a great sign for this team as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. The Bears have not allowed more than 63 points in this Big Dance — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. Baylor has won all three of their NCAA Tournament games by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning at least three in a row by 10 or more points. And in their last 6 games when playing their second game in three days, the Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. Arkansas once again skirted danger by falling behind by double-digits against the Golden Eagles before rallying for the win. The Razorbacks cannot afford to do that for the fourth straight time against this Baylor team — the Bears will start hitting more 3s and the lead will be 20. Arkansas was able to pull away from Colgate, but they survived two-point victories against Texas Tech and then Oral Roberts on Saturday. But the Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a win by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two in a row by three points or less. And in their last 10 games after winning three in a row, Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these games. The Razorbacks rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home, but they fall to 39th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency when on the road. Let’s put a microscope on that. Arkansas has the eighth-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, but they fall to 43rd in that metric on the road. Looking even closer, while the Razorbacks held their opponents to just 27.9% shooting from behind the arc at home, ranking 31st in the nation, their opponents make 39.1% of their 3-pointers on the road, ranking 317th nationally. Baylor is the wrong opponent for them playing outside Fayetteville. And while Arkansas wants to force turnovers with their full-court press, the Bears’ four-guard lineup only turns the ball over in 16.2% of their possessions away from Waco, ranking 42nd nationally. The Razorbacks only make 32.6% of their 3-pointers away from home, ranking 187th in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on a neutral court as an underdog. Baylor has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. 25* CBB Elite 8 Game of the Year with the Baylor Bears (654) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (653). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-29-21 |
Oregon State v. Houston -7.5 |
Top |
61-67 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (656) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (655). THE SITUATION: Houston (27-3) won their tenth straight game with their 62-46 victory against Syracuse as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Oregon State (20-12) has won nine of their last ten games after their 65-58 upset win against Loyola-Chicago as a 7-point underdog on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston easily defeated the Orange despite making only 38.3% of their shots from the field and just 7 of their 26 shots from behind the arc.
|
03-28-21 |
Oregon v. USC -1.5 |
Top |
68-82 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (644) minus the point(s) versus the Oregon Ducks (643). THE SITUATION: USC (24-7) has won five of their last six games after their 85-51 win against Kansas as a 1-point favorite last Monday night. Oregon (21-6) has won seven of their last eight games after their 95-80 upset win against Iowa as a 5-point underdog on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS MINUS THE POINTS: The laptops love this USC team — metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks them 6th in the nation. It starts on defense where the Trojans lead the nation by holding their opponents to just 41.4% shooting inside the arc. Head coach Andy Enfield has length that makes it difficult on opposing shooters. Evan Mobley is a rising star — the 7’0 freshman center patrols the paint and helps USC block 13.6% of their opponent’s shots, 18th best in the nation. The Trojans should build off the momentum of their 34-point win against the Jayhawks as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after a double-digit win. USC made 57.1% of their shots against what had been an improving Kansas defense. That was the third straight game that the Trojans made at least 50% of their shots — and it was the fourth time over a six-game stretch where they shot at least 50% from the field while never shooting less than 47.2% during that span. The personality of this team suggests they will continue to build off this success. USC has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after shooting at least 47% from the field in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after making at least 47% of their shots in five straight games. And while the Trojans nailed 11 of their 18 shots from 3-point land against the Jayhawks, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after shooting at least 50% from 3-point range in their last game. Oregon probably pulled off the best win of their season by upsetting the Hawkeyes last week. We had the Ducks in that game after benefitting from getting a bye from not playing a VCU team that has to cancel because of COVID protocols. Those turn of events not only kept the Oregon players rested but it allowed for the coaching staff to get a jump on preparing for Iowa rather than decompressing from a Saturday night game. Oregon versus VCU was my favorite situation from the Round of 64 — so I feel robbed that we didn’t get the chance to profit from it. And that sentiment should demonstrate that I like this Ducks team — just not in this spot. Oregon has won twelve of their last fourteen games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning at least twelve of their last fifteen games. The Ducks have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Oregon is not a great defensive team. They rank 60th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — and they plummet to 103rd nationally in defense when playing on the road. Head coach Dana Altman deploys several zone defenses that can be tricky to adjust to for those opponents unfamiliar with them — but that will not be the case against this USC team. Half-court defense is a particulate concern — they have an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.1% which is 238th in the nation. Oregon is also reliant on 3-point shooting — they are 14th in the nation by converting 38.2% of their 3-pointers. The Ducks may become reliant on their 3s against the stout Trojans’ interior defense. But while Oregon averages 22 shots from distance per game, USC has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games against teams who average at least 21 shots from 3-point range per game. The Ducks outscore their opponents by +7.3 PPG as well — but the Trojans have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after 15 games into the season against teams who outscore their opponents by at least +4.0 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: USC has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored on a neutral court. The Trojans have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games in the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the USC Trojans (644) minus the point(s) versus the Oregon Ducks (643). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-28-21 |
Florida State v. Michigan -2 |
Top |
58-76 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (628) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (627). THE SITUATION: Michigan (22-4) advanced to the Sweet 16 with their gritty 86-78 victory against LSU as a 5-point favorite last Monday. Florida State (18-6) has won three of their last four games after their 71-53 upset win against Colorado as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan was resilient to take the Tigers’ best punch but still rally from a 9-point deficit to defeat an LSU team that is loaded with talent and playing at a high level. Juwan Howard displayed his coaching acumen making many in-game adjustments that changed the momentum. And the Wolverines had several role players step up to make big shots. The loss of Isaiah Livers has been absorbed by several players. Eli Brooks led the team with 21 points with the senior making several clutch baskets. Transfer Chaundee Brown is getting more playing time with Livers on the shelf — he responded with 21 points himself. Michigan has played worse this season in the times when Brooks has been hurt rather than Livers — his role on the team is more vital this season given the emergence of freshman phenom Hunter Dickinson at center. Brandon Johns took Livers' spot in the starting lineup — he had a solid 7 points with 5 rebounds in 27 minutes. Johns is a former five-star recruit under John Beilein who can create his own shot as more of a post-up player than Livers. Michigan should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win. The offense was clicking even without Livers with the Wolverines making 53.8% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Wolverines scored 82 points in their opening-round game against Texas Southern — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 80 points in two straight games. Only Gonzaga, Baylor, and Michigan rank inside the top-ten in Adjusted Efficiency in both offense and defense. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games when favored. I take a backseat to no one in my respect for Florida State head coach Leonard Hamilton. We had them in their upset in against Colorado — but that was likely an outlier performance. The Seminoles made 52.2% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. But Michigan may be catching Florida State at the right time. This is the best 3-point shooting team in Hamilton’s tenure at Florida State — but they have hit only 6 of their 26 shots (23.0%) 3-pointers in the Big Dance which may be a harbinger of things to come under tournament pressure facing elite defenses. As it is, the Seminoles are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Florida State has flexed their muscles on defense by holding their first two opponents to 53.5 PPG in the Big Dance. But the Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after not allowing their last two opponents to score more than 55 points. Florida State has balanced scoring and a deep bench — but I am not sure they have a reliable go-to scorer in the half-court when they need a basket. The Seminoles rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home — but they fall to 31st in that metric when playing on the road. And while their length on defense will disrupt Michigan, they lack a post-defender who can handle Dickinson down low. The 7-footer will likely be a difference-maker in this game — especially on the boards. The Seminoles allow their opponents to pull down 31.6% of their missed shots, ranking 296th nationally. Florida State is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan is 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games played on a neutral court — and they are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite. Florida State is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (628) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (627). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-27-21 |
Memphis -3.5 v. Colorado State |
Top |
90-67 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (629) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (630). THE SITUATION: Memphis (18-8) has won three of their last four games after defeating Boise State by a 59-56 score as a 4-point favorite in the NIT Quarterfinals on Thursday. Colorado State (20-6) has also won three of their last four games after their 65-61 upset win against North Carolina State as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday in their NIT Quarterfinals contest. This game will be played on a neutral court at Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis advanced despite making only 42.9% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last three games. Penny Hardaway’s team should build off their momentum — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win by 6 points or less. And while Memphis had covered the point spread in seven straight games before not covering against the Broncos, they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Furthermore, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning at least two in a row. Hardaway has been criticized for his coaching — but the former NBA star has overseen the development of his team rising to be number one in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation. Memphis has played two straight Unders — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after playing their last two games Under the Total. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. And in their last 6 games when playing their second game in three days, Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of these contests. Hardaway’s team has played better away from home — while they rank 50th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they improve to 31st in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games in games with the total set in the 130s. Colorado State may be due for a letdown after rallying in the second half to defeat the Wolfpack on Thursday. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win. Despite the win, they are scoring only 68.8 PPG over their last five games with a 40.6% field goal percentage over that span which is a dropoff of -5.5 PPG from their season average where they are making 46.9% of their shots. Colorado State has been more effective at home at Fort Collins where they rank 63rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. When away from home, the Rams fall to 87th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. The biggest problem is with the play of their offense — consistent with the decline in their recent five games. While Colorado State ranks 65th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 134th in that metric on the road. Protecting the basketball has been an issue — they turn the ball over in 19.6% of their possessions, ranking 205th nationally. Memphis forces turnovers in 22.3% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 28th nationally.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado State is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on a neutral court as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on a neutral court as a dog getting 3.5 to 6 points. Memphis has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. 25* CBB NIT Semifinals Game of the Year with the Memphis Tigers (629) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (630). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-25-21 |
Clippers v. Spurs +6.5 |
Top |
98-85 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (506) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (505). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (22-19) has lost three in a row after their 134-101 loss to the Clippers as a 6.5-point underdog last night. Los Angeles (29-16) has won three in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: We had San Antonio last night as a 10* play. The Clippers raced out to a 41-29 lead at the end of the first quarter — but the Spurs rallied to pull within six points midway through the second quarter where the game yo-yoed back-and-forth until LA pulled away midway through the third quarter. Head coach Gregg Popovich called off the proverbial dogs in the fourth quarter with his starter not playing the final eight minutes. While it is dangerous to chase losses, it is also foolish to automatically dismiss profitable opportunities only because of a previous lost bet. Tonight’s situation is stronger as San Antonio has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 10 or more points at home. This is a team that has been on a five-game road trip — and now they have lost the first two games of a nine-game homestand. The Spurs have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. This is their second game of a nine-game homestand — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games after losing at least two in a row. This is an underrated team that has intriguing young talent along with DeMar DeRozan who is playing at a very high level. As always under Gregg Popovich, this is a well-coached team that plays smart. San Antonio leads the NBA with the lowest turnover rate in the league — and they have the fifth-lowest foul rate. The Spurs are also playing better defense as of late. They had held their previous five opponents to 105.6 PPG on 45.2% shooting which is -4.5 PPG below their season average — before last night’s mulligan. They also were making a healthy 47.9% of their shots during that five-game span before shooting just 45.9% last night which was the worst shooting margin in their last four games. San Antonio has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games as an underdog. Los Angeles shot 55.7% from the field last night which was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games. Yet the Clippers have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Clippers have covered the point spread in their last three games as a favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after winning and covering the point spread in at least two straight games as a favorite. The Clippers have still failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers will still be without Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverley who are dealing with injuries. San Antonio hopes to get Lonnie Walker IV and Rudy Gay back tonight after they missed last night’s game with injures. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games when avenging a loss by at least 20 points. 25* NBA Western Conference Underdog of the Month with the San Antonio Spurs (506) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (505). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-25-21 |
NC State +1 v. Colorado State |
Top |
61-65 |
Loss |
-112 |
19 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (613) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus Colorado State (614). THE SITUATION: NC State (14-10) has won six of their last seven games with their 75-61 win against Davidson as a 2.5-point favorite last Thursday. Colorado State (19-6) has won two of their last three games with their 75-73 win against Buffalo as a 2-point favorite last Friday. This quarterfinals match in the National Invitational Tournament is being played on a neutral court at Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK PLUS THE POINTS: NC State nailed 58.8% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the best shooting effort of the season. That typically is a red flag for me as an outlier effort that is due for regression. But that was the fifth time in their last seven games that NC State has made at least 50% of their shots. This is a team peaking in March — despite losing their top-scorer, Devon Daniels, to a season-ending ACL tear at the end o January. Kevin Keatts kept coaching — and he has redesigned the offense to rely more on his frontcourt. Junior forward Jericole Hellems has averaged 13.8 PPG in his last 13 games. 6’10 senior D.J. Funderburk led the team with 21 points against Davidson. Four of the Wolfpack’s best graded net efficiency performances have taken place since February 6th. The team trends suggest the strong effort last week is a sign of good things to come for this team — they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. And while the Wolfpack’s with the Wildcats finished Under the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing an Under. NC State also tends to play better on the road. While they rank 93rd nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they rise to 27th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road fueled by a ranking 13th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Another metrics projection system I consider ranks the Wolfpack as the 11th best team in the nation on the road. Colorado State has played their basketball at home in Fort Collins where they have an edge given their familiarity with the higher altitude. The Rams rank 64th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home — but they fall to 90th nationally in that metric on the road. The biggest dropoff away from home is the performance of their offense. While Colorado State is 68th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 124th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road. This is not a great matchup for the Rams either given their propensity to commit turnovers. Colorado State turns the ball over in 19.8% of their possessions, the 222nd worst mark in the nation. They were even worse in the Mountain West Conference with a turnover rate of 21.9%, ninth-worst. The Wolfpack forced turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 40th nationally. Colorado State has not committed more than 11 turnovers in four straight games — but not only have the Rams failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not committing more than 11 turnovers in two straight games, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not committing more than 11 turnovers in three straight games. Despite protecting the basketball better as of late (albeit against opponents not as adept at forcing turnovers as NC State), the top-five performances this season for Colorado State, in terms of efficiency, all took place before February.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on a neutral court with the total set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. NC State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court as a favorite or picks ‘em — and they have covered the point spread 9 of their last 14 games on a neutral court with the number set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (613) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus Colorado State (614). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-24-21 |
Coastal Carolina v. Pepperdine -4 |
Top |
61-84 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Pepperdine Wave (610) minus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (609). THE SITUATION: Pepperdine (14-12) advanced to the Championship Game of the College Basketball Invitational with their 82-71 win against Bellarmine as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Coastal Carolina (18-7) won their semifinals game against Stetson with a 77-72 win in overtime as a 7.5-point favorite. The CBI is being played at a neutral court at Oceans Center in Dayton Beach.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Pepperdine had high expectations to begin the season with four starters back from the group that finished 16-16. Lorenzo Romar has talent on his team — led by senior Colbey Ross who is averaging 17.6 PPG and junior Kessler Edwards who added 17.5 PPG. The Wave suffered close losses to good teams last season — including 2-point losses to Gonzaga and Arizona. It was more of the same for Romar’s team this season with an early triple-overtime loss to UCLA (when the Bruins still had a healthy Chris Smith) and a 5-point loss to San Diego State. The Wave then endured a front-loaded schedule in the West Coast Conference given COVID cancellations — they still played Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s twice and BYU three times (including the conference tournament) but did not benefit from getting to load up on the bottom half of the conference. Pepperdine did defeat Saint Mary’s and BYU in the regular season — but they lost an overtime heartbreaker to the Cougars in the West Coast Conference tournament, despite a spectacular effort from Ross. The Wave should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Pepperdine has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with one day or less of rest. The Wave are playing their best basketball of the season now in March with four wins in their last five games. They have scored at least 77 points in each of their last five games while averaging 81.4 PPG with a 48.5% shooting clip over that span. Pepperdine has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. The Wave have also been more effective on the road. While Pepperdine ranks 141st in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they improve to 66th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150. Pepperdine is also 38-14-2 ATS in their last 54 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Coastal Carolina has the burden of playing without rest after a game that required overtime — and, as it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win. And while the Chanticleers have played two straight games Over the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after playing two straight Overs. This is a big step-up in competition for this team whose best opponent this season was a Wofford team that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks at 126th in the nation — and they lost by 11 points. Pomeroy ranks Pepperdine as the 105th team nationally. Twenty-two of the 25 teams Coastal Carolina played this season are ranked 211th or lower by Pomeroy.
FINAL TAKE: Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em — and the Wave have covered the point spread in 7 straight games played on a neutral court as a favorite. 25* CBB CBI Game of the Year with the Pepperdine Wave (610) minus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (609). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-24-21 |
Pistons +6.5 v. Pacers |
Top |
111-116 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (559) plus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (560). THE SITUATION: Detroit (12-30) had their two-game losing streak with a 100-86 loss to Chicago as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Indiana (19-23) has lost nine of their last thirteen games after their 140-113 loss at Milwaukee as a 7-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PISTONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit made only 4 of their 25 shots from behind the arc against the Bulls with their 39.0% shooting percentage being the lowest mark in their last six games. And the 46.2% field goal percentage that Chicago managed was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three contests. The Pistons should play better tonight for head coach Dwane Casey who is getting every ounce of talent out of his roster. Detroit has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. Additionally, the Pistons have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a loss at home. Furthermore, Detroit has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. Casey is doing a great coaching job with this team with the organization looking ahead to the NBA draft. His players consistently play with effort — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road. Rodney McGruder is out tonight and Wayne Ellington is questionable — but Casey still has several rag-tag players that are proving quality minutes. Jerami Grant is enjoying a breakout season with his chance to demonstrate his offensive skills on top of his elite defensive talent. Deion Wright has been a surprise. Dennis Smith is showing flashes of the promise that made him a top-ten draft pick by the Knicks. Mason Plumlee has been solid. Indiana is not at full health with two starters, Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner, questionable with back and ankle injuries, respectively. The Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. Indiana has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a double-digit loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. And while Indiana has scored at least 105 points in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after scoring at least 105 points in five straight contests. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Injuries continue to hold this Pacers’ team back. Missing T.J. Warren all season has been a big blow to their offense whose limitations were why they did not retain Nate McMillan as their head coach. They recently got Caris LeVert into the mix — but potentially not having Brogdon and/or Turner really hurts after both were out against the Bucks. Brogdon has been the team’s leading scorer in his previous eight games with a 22.5 PPG scoring average while nailing 54.3% of his shots and 48.1% of his shots from behind the arc. Turner has been a pleasant surprise this year after being on the trading block to begin the season. Even if both players get cleared to play tonight, Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite — and Detroit has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. 25* NBA Central Division Underdog of the Month with the Detroit Pistons (559) plus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-22-21 |
Colorado v. Florida State -1.5 |
Top |
53-71 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (828) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (827). THE SITUATION: Florida State (17-6) has won two of their last three games after their 64-54 win against UNC-Greensboro as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. Colorado (23-8) has won seven of their last eight games after their 96-73 win against Georgetown as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Indiana Farmers Coliseum.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES MINUS THE POINT(S): Fascinating situation here with metrics guru Ken Pomeroy projecting Colorado as a 2-point winner with another analytics guru I peruse projecting the Bufaloes as a 4-point winner. Yet the numbers I lean most heavily on — that values home/road splits the most — has Florida State a 1-point favorite which correlates with what the oddsmakers are thinking. I am with the oddsmakers in this one. While Colorado is 5th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency, ranking 7th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they drop to 15th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency while ranking 21st on offense and 38th on defense. And the Buffaloes come off a wild outlier performance on Saturday where they torched the nets against a helpless Hoyas team by nailing 11 of their 17 shots from behind the arc. Colorado made a season-high 60.7% of their shots in that game — but I fully expect that the Regression Gods will be making an appearance tonight. The Seminoles are 26th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.1%. Their ability to use all five players on the court to switch off makes it very difficult on opponents. They are the tallest team in the nation according to Pomeroy’s numbers. Colorado is led by star guard McKinley Wright — but he’s just 6’0 who will likely struggle against the length that Florida State deploys. The Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing their second game on the road in three days. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Then there is head coach Tad Boyle. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 postseason games under Boyle including four of their last five games in the Big Dance. Florida State did not make a 3-pointer on Saturday against the Spartans — so the Regression Gods can kill two birds with one stone when they make their appearance tonight. The Seminoles are sixth in the nation by making 39.0% of their 3-pointers, so they will start falling. Florida State only pulled down five offensive rebounds in that game as well — no wonder I passed on that situation. The Seminoles are 16th in the nation by rebounding 35.1% of their missed shots — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not rebounding more than five offensive boards in their last game. Florida State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a game where both teams scored at least 65 points. And in their last 6 games where it was just their second game in eight days, the Seminoles have covered the point spread in 5 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: I think Leonard Hamilton is the most underrated head coach in any sport in the country. His teams tend to be overvalued as big favorites — but they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or dog up to three points. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Second Round Game of the Year with the Florida State Seminoles (828) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (827). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-22-21 |
Oregon +5.5 v. Iowa |
Top |
95-80 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 12:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (823) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (824). THE SITUATION: Oregon (20-6) advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday after VCU pulled out of the tournament after a positive COVID case. The Ducks saw their six-game winning streak snapped in the semifinals of the Pac-12 tournament in a 75-64 upset loss to Oregon State as an 8-point favorite. Iowa (22-8) defeated Grand Canyon by an 86-74 score as a 17.5-point favorite on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Fieldhouse.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: I am not worried about how the cancellation of Friday’s game impacted the Ducks — I see it as just another day of rest that should help with their legs in the second half. Oregon only made 41.7% of their shots against the Beavers in the Pac-12 Championship Game — far below their 47.2% shooting percentage for the season. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by double-digits in a game where they were laying at least 7 points. Oregon was hit pretty hard by COVID which interrupted their season twice. And those circumstances were in addition to them dealing with some injuries with Eric Williams banged up for much of the season and Will Richardson out until early February with a thumb injury. The Ducks have won eleven of their last thirteen games since February 6th while exceeding point spread expectations in five straight games before getting upset in the Pac-12 tournament. Oregon has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Ducks tend to play better on the road this season. While they rank 56th in Adjusted Net Efficiency in Eugene, they improve to 40th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency when on the road. They have a dynamic set of players that ranked 16th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Oregon has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They also have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games played on a neutral court. Iowa made 53.7% of their shots on Friday which was the best scoring effort in their last 16 games. But the Hawkeyes are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Iowa is one of the best scoring teams in the nation — but they are held back on defense given the limitations of Luke Garza in the interior. The Hawkeyes ranked 60th in the nation and seventh in the Big Ten in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This suspect play on defense explains why they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. Furthermore, Iowa is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games when favored — and they are 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 games on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: While I don’t put too much stock into conference performance after three days in the Big Dance, I certainly have observed how well the Pac-12 is doing — and how disappointing the Big Ten has been. Oregon has the better head coach this afternoon — and not only are the Ducks 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games, but they have covered 6 straight games in the Big Dance under Dana Altman as the underdog. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 NCAA Tournament games when favored under Fran McCaffrey. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Second Round Underdog of the Year with the Oregon Ducks (823) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (824). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-21-21 |
North Texas v. Villanova -5.5 |
Top |
61-84 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 8:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (804) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (803). THE SITUATION: Villanova (17-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 73-63 win against Winthrop as a 6-point favorite on Friday. North Texas (18-9) has won five games in a row with their 78-69 upset win in overtime against Purdue on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: North Texas has now pulled off two straight upsets that needed overtime as they pulled off the same to defeat Western Kentucky to win the Conference USA tournament. I suspect the bubble bursts for the Mean Green tonight. Before their victory against the young Boilermakers on Friday, the best team that North Texas had beat was probably Louisiana Tech that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks as the 74th best team in the nation. They lost by double-digits against Arkansas and West Virginia earlier in the season — and they lost to 8 points to North Texas. Grant McCasland is a great coach, and it is a nice story for this team. But they turn the ball over in 19.9% of their possessions — and that number rises to 20.6% of their possessions on the road, ranking 238th in the nation. They also do not get many freebies as they rank 283rd in free throw rate. Turnovers and lack of free throws are giving too many scoring opportunities to a Wildcats team that ranks eighth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. North Texas did hold the Boilermaker stock 36.2% shooting which was the highest opponent field goal percentage in their last three games. But not only have they then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not allowing their last two opponents to make better than 37% of their shots but they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after not allowing their last three opponents to shoot better than 37%. As expected, Jay Wright made adjustments to his schemes with the eight days he had since losing in the Big East quarterfinals to Georgetown. With point guard Collin Gillespie out the rest of the season, Wright had the offense structured around senior Jeremiah Robinson-Earl who is having an All-American worthy season. He scored 22 points on Friday. Sophomore Justin Moore is a rising star who can handle the point guard duties. This is Jay Wright. This is still Villanova. The program is loaded with talent. There is a reason this team has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in the Big Dance — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games when favored in the NCAA Tournament. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. In their two previous upset losses before the tournament, the one against Providence was after Moore suffered an injury that kept him out of the second half. Their upset loss to Georgetown then was by one point against a Hoyas team that looks much better ten days later. Don’t overreact to one close loss.
FINAL TAKE: Villanova is 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games when playing on a neutral court — and North Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. 25* CBB TNT Game of the Year with the Villanova Wildcats (804) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (803). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-18-21 |
Norfolk State +3.5 v. Appalachian State |
Top |
54-53 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Norfolk State Spartans (711) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (712). THE SITUATION: Norfolk State (16-7) has won six straight games after winning the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference tournament with their 71-63 victory against Morgan State as a 2.5-point favorite on March 13th. Appalachian State (17-11) has won four in a row after taking the Sun Belt conference tournament title with their 80-73 victory against Georgia State as a 7-point underdog on March 8th. This play-in game in the First Four earns the 16th seed in the west region. This game is being played on a neutral court at Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE NORFOLK STATE PLUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State found lightning in a bottle in the Sun Belt tournament with three straight upset victories against Texas State, Coastal Carolina, and then the Panthers to claim the title. They limped into the conference tournament with six losses in their previous seven games. I expect an emotional letdown for the Mountaineers now. They have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games on the road after an upset victory against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with at least seven days between games. Appalachian ranks 217th in the nation in the advanced metrics I rely on — yet in their most recent ten games, they fall to 236th during that span. They only made 43.6% of their shots against Georgia State but that was still tied for the best shooting effort in their last six contests. The Mountaineers struggle to score baskets. They are making just 37.8% of their shots in their last five games. They rank 227th nationally with a 3-point shooting percentage of 32.6% while ranking 283rd in the nation by making just 46.7% of their shots inside the arc. Their shooting struggles intensify when playing away from home where they make just 39.3% of their shots. And while they rank 192nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they fall to 241st in the nation in that metric when playing on the road. Appalachian State played better at home this season where they ranked 193rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they fall to 239th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. Norfolk State ranks 208th in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and while they rank 252nd when playing at home, they improve to 182nd nationally when playing on the road. They only made 42.4% of their shots in winning the MEAC Championship Game which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. But they should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Spartans are still making 46.6% of their shots in their last five games. This is a good shooting team that ranks 32nd in the nation by making 37.4% of their 3-pointers. This is also a team this improving on the other end of the court. They have held their last five opponents to 37.6% shooting which resulted in only 58.4 PPG — and none of those opponents scored more than 65 points. Norfolk State has then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. They are led by a do-it-all senior point guard in Devante Carter who scores 15.5 PPG while adding 5.3 RPG and 4.0 APG. The Spartans have balanced scoring with six players scoring at least 7.6 PPG. Overall, this team has a nice pedigree to advance (and earn the right to lose to Gonzaga on Saturday).
FINAL TAKE: Norfolk State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on a neutral court. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Four Game of the Year with the Norfolk State Spartans (711) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-17-21 |
Clippers v. Mavs +3 |
Top |
89-105 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 9:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (550) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (549). THE SITUATION: Dallas (20-18) has lost two of their last three games after their 109-99 loss against the Clippers as a 1-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (26-15) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: We had the Clippers on Monday — and this is a good opportunity to zig-zag with the Mavs. Dallas was held scoreless in the last 3:15 minutes of that game while missing all five of their shots. They only took five free throws all game. Luka Doncic had an off-game for him by making only 9 of 23 shots from the field including just 4 of 11 from 3-point range. The Mavericks allowed the Clippers to make 50% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last ten games. While under-the-radar, Dallas has played much better on defense as of late under head coach Rick Carlisle. Over their last ten games, the Mavericks rank seventh in the NBA in Defensive Rating. Finally getting healthy has helped after this team has dealt with a host of injuries and their share of COVID issues. When Carlisle can start Doncic with a healthy Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Kristaps Porzingis, and Maxi Kleiber, they have won nine of those thirteen games. In their last 15 games, Dallas is 11-4 while ranking sixth in the league with their Net Efficiency Rating. They should bounce-back as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. They host the Clippers again where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Los Angeles’ enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last five games by making 50% of their shots. But the Clippers have been consistently inconsistent — they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They are not at full strength with Patrick Beverley out with a knee injury and Serge Ibaka questionable with a back issue.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 28 of their last 47 games when avenging a loss at home to their opponents. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Game of the Month with the Dallas Mavericks (550) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (549). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-17-21 |
Western Kentucky +2 v. St. Mary's |
Top |
69-67 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (707) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (708) in the first round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (20-7) had their three-game winning streak snapped in the Conference USA Championship Game in a 61-57 upset loss to North Texas as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Saint Mary’s (14-9) last played on March 8th when they lost to Gonzaga by a 78-55 score as an 18.5-point underdog in the West Coast Conference tournament semifinals. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Comerica Center in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky took the Mean Green to overtime despite making only 34.0% of their shots in what was a season-low. And while they held North Texas to just 39.3% shooting, that was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. Head coach Rick Stansbury’s team should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after an upset loss to a Conference USA rival. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not scoring more than 60 points in their last game. The Hilltoppers are led by an NBA prospect in junior Charles Bassey who scores 17.7 PPG and pulls down 11.5 RPG. They will be without senior Carson Williams who is out for this game due to personal reasons — but the senior was only scoring 7.5 PPG, and Stansbury’s team is blessed with depth. Western Kentucky beat Alabama earlier in the season so the potential is high for this team. They have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games as an underdog. Saint Mary’s may have more trouble getting up for this game as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Gaels made only 36.1% of their shots against the Bulldogs -- but they have not shot better than 39.5% of their shots in five straight games. Saint Mary’s replaced their top three scorers from last season — and they simply were not a good shooting team this year. After ranking 4th in the nation by nailing 38.7% of their shots from behind the arc last year, the Gaels plummeted to 328th nationally by making only 29.3% of their 3-pointers. The problem for Randy Bennett is that the Hilltoppers interior play is the strength of their defense with Bassey patrolling the paint. Western Kentucky limited their opponents to just 45.8% shooting inside the arc, 38th best nationally. As it is, Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after not shooting better than 40% in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after not shooting better than 40% in four straight contests. To compound matters, the Gaels played their best when at home where they were 9-3 and ranked 40th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. Saint Mary’s had a losing 5-6 record away from home while dropping to ranking 115th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency. Their offensive numbers tell the story: while ranking 128th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they are 269th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. The Gaels lack quality wins — their highest-profile win was against Colorado State who is in the NIT. They had troubling losses to Pepperdine and Santa Clara. The oddsmakers are relying on statistical projection models that are vulnerable because of the lack of a large sample size of non-conference play that can help accurately gauge relative conference strengths. I suspect Saint Mary’s gets exposed in this game as being just not very good. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better.
FINAL TAKE: Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games played in the postseason. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games as an underdog playing on a neutral court. 25* CBB NIT First Round Game of the Year with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (707) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-16-21 |
Pelicans v. Blazers -1.5 |
Top |
124-125 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (528) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (527). THE SITUATION: Portland (22-16) has lost two of their last three games with their 114-112 upset loss at Minnesota on Sunday as a 5-point favorite. New Orleans (17-22) comes off a 135-115 upset victory against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Pelicans made a whopping 65.4% of their shots against the Clippers which was a season-best for them. I expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance tonight. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games on the road after pulling off an upset victory by double-digits as an underdog of at least 6 points. The Pelicans have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a win by at least 15 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after pulling off an upset win as a home underdog by at least 15 points. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win — so maintaining a basic level of consistency has been a problem for first-year head coach Stan Van Gundy. Additionally, the Pelicans do not fare well with a likely scoring-fest on the horizon. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a game where at least 245 combined points were scored. With this game featuring two of the bottom three teams in the NBA in Defensive Rating and the total opening at 240(!), this does not bode well for the Pelicans. This team struggles on defense despite having the coaching wizardry of Van Gundy who coached a pretty good Orlando team in the 1990s. New Orleans is third-to-last in the league by allowing their opponents to make 39.1% of their 3-pointers. Here comes the Blazers who are second in the NBA with a 46.5% mark from behind the arc and by generating 42.2% of their points from 3-point shots. The Pelicans go on the road where they are just 5-12 this season while allowing their home hosts to make 48.4% of their shots which results in 116.5 PPG. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they are 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. The Pelicans have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games as an underdog. Portland only made 43.8% of their shots in their embarrassing upset to a Timberwolves team that has a strong claim in being the worst in the league. That was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Trail Blazers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 8 games this season after a loss on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing their third game in four days. And while Portland has allowed at least 106 points in six straight games, they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 40 games after allowing at least 105 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 105 points in four straight games. They do get a shot in the arm with the expected return of C.J. McCollum who has been out for the last 25 games with a foot injury. In his 13 games this season, the star guard averaged 26.7 Points-Per-Game while contributing 5 Assists-Per-Game. Injuries have hit this team hard with Zach Collins and Jusef Nurkic still out and Harry Giles III upgraded to questionable tonight. Yet after a slow 10-9 start to the season, the Blazers have still won twelve of their last nineteen with Damian Lillard leading the way while getting nice help from Gary Trent and Carmelo Anthony. Portland returns home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans will be without J.J. Reddick who is dealing with a neck injury — losing his 3-point shooting will not help Zion Williamson’s attempt to have his 2-pointers count more than the 3-pointers from Lillard and McCollum. The Pelicans were upset by the Blazers on February 17th by a 126-124 as a 4.5-point home favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 opportunities to avenge an upset loss. 25* NBA TNT Tuesday Game of the Month with the Portland Trail Blazers (528) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (527). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-15-21 |
Clippers -1.5 v. Mavs |
Top |
109-99 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (511) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (512). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (25-15) has lost four of their last five games after their 135-116 upset loss at New Orleans as a 6-point favorite last night. Dallas (20-17) has won five of their last six games after their 116-113 upset victory at Denver as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles played their worst defensive game of the season yesterday by allowing the Pelicans to nail 65.4% of their shots. They made only 45.4% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Clippers should play much better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 125 points in their last contest. Additionally, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, the Clippers have coved the point spread in 42 of their last 60 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after a loss at home. Playing without rest should not be a problem for this team as they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games when playing the second game in back-to-back days. The Clippers need to reverse their recent slide — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. LA has not covered the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 straight games after only covering the point spread once or twice in their last six games. They stay on the road where they are now 12-9 but with an average winning margin of +4.4 PPG. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win by double-digits as a road dog. The Mavericks have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. Dallas is playing much better basketball now that they are healthy again after dealing with a handful of players in quarantine — but they remain not very good on the defensive end of the court. They rank 24th in the NBA in Defensive Rating — and they tend to not do well when getting dragged into high-scoring games. The Mavericks have seen at least 219 combined points scored in three straight games. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after playing two straight games when at least 215 combined points were scored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after playing three straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. The Mavericks return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total in the 220s.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers will remember suffering their worst loss in franchise history on December 27th in a 124-73 loss at home as a 3-point favorite. LA was without Kawhi Leonard and Patrick Beverley in that game — and Serge Ibaka played only eight minutes. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Dallas — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against the Mavericks. 25* NBA Road Warrior of the Month on the Los Angeles Clippers (511) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-14-21 |
Ohio State +6 v. Illinois |
Top |
88-91 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (657) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (658) in the championship game in the Big Ten tournament. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (21-8) reached the finals of this tournament with their 68-67 upset win against Michigan as a 5-point underdog yesterday. Illinois (22-6) has won five in a row with their 82-71 win against Iowa as a 3-point favorite yesterday. The Big Ten tournament is being played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Ohio State won yesterday despite making only 35.1% of their shots which was the lowest mark in their last three games and their second-lowest field goal percentage in their last 14 games. The Buckeyes are making 46.2% of their shots away from home — and they rank second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Chris Holtmann’s team can score. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Buckeyes have also covered the pints spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing their third game in five days. This is a veteran, battle-tested team — they have won 30 of their last 41 games with 32 of those games in the rugged Big Ten over the last two seasons. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. Additionally, Ohio State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court when getting up to 6 points. Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 80 points in a victory against a Big Ten opponent in their last game. And while the Illini raced out to a 45-37 halftime lead yesterday, they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games on the road after scoring at least 45 points in the first half of their last game. Illinois has covered the point spread in six straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. Furthermore, the Illini has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court with the number in the 145 to 149.5 point range. And in their last 25 games played on a neutral court as a favorite laying 3.5 to 6 points, Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of these games. The Illini ranks 10th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home — but they fall to 26th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. This team also makes only 68.8% of their free throws, ranking 247th nationally. If Illinois is leading in this game, the Buckeyes may still be able to scratch out a point spread cover by playing the fouling game. The Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 tournament championship games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season showdowns with Ohio State winning in Champagne by an 87-81 score on January 16th before getting upset in Columbus on March 6th by a 73-68 score as a 2.5-point favorite. The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 61 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (657) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (658). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-13-21 |
Cal-Irvine v. UC-Santa Barbara -2.5 |
Top |
63-79 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (634) minus the points versus the UC-Irvine Anteaters (633) in the championship game of the Big West tournament. THE SITUATION: UC-Santa Barbara (20-4) has won four games in a row with their 71-55 win against Cal-Davis as a 10.5-point favorite yesterday. UC-Irvine (17-8) has won six in a row after their 78-61 win against UC-Riverside as a 1.5-point favorite last night. The Big West tournament is being played in the Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GAUCHOS MINUS THE POINTS: UC-Santa Barbara won last night despite making only 42.6% of their shots which was tied for their lowest mark in their last four games. The Gauchos are still making 47.3% of their shots on the road which is generating 75.1 PPG — and they are outscoring their opponents away from home by +6.9 PPG. UC-Santa Barbara’s offense has executed much better when playing away from home. While the Gauchos rank 136th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they improve to 67th in offensive efficiency when playing on the road. UC-Santa Barbara is 37th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 53.4% — and they are also 14th nationally in free throw rate. The Gauchos should feed off their momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, UC-Santa Barbara has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after winning at least two in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road after winning at least three in a row. And in their last 11 games after winning at least four in a row, head coach Joe Pasternack’s teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games. The Gauchos did not commit one turnover last night either — and they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after not turning the ball over in their previous game. Additionally, UC-Santa Barbara has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. UC-Irvine has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win against a conference opponent. The Anteaters are also 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread win. UC-Irvine has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two in a row against conference opponents. And while the Anteaters have covered the point spread in twice of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after covering two of their last three games. UC-Irvine made 46% of their shots last night in what was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But this team makes only 41.1% of their shots on the road which generates only 66.5 PPG. While the Anteaters rank 110th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they plummet to a 144th ranking in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. They have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119th nationally when playing at home — they are 272nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road. Overall, UC-Irvine ranks 284th nationally with an effective field goal percentage of 47.3%. The Anteaters’ strength is their defense — they have held their last four opponents to no better than 37.4% shooting. But UC-Irvine has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing their last four opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field.
FINAL TAKE: UC-Irvine swept the two regular-season meetings between these two teams — but both of those games were played on their home court in December. UC-Santa Barbara has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with double-revenge. 25* CBB Big West Game of the Year with the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (634) minus the points versus the UC-Irvine Anteaters (633). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-13-21 |
Iona -8 v. Fairfield |
Top |
60-51 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iona Gaels (613) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (614) in the championship game of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Iona (11-5) won their fifth game in a row with their 70-64 win against Niagara as a 6-point favorite yesterday. Fairfield (10-16) pulled off their fourth straight upset yesterday in a 52-47 upset victory against St. Peter’s as a 6-point favorite. The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament is being played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GAELS MINUS THE POINTS: Fairfield upset Manhattan twice in a row before dispatching Monmouth before the St. Peter’s yesterday. Not exactly a Murderer’s Row — St. Peter’s is ranked 220 by metrics guru Ken Pomeroy while he has Monmouth 228 and Manhattan at 316. Iona is a significant step up in competition — Pomeroy ranks them 185th with some of the other power rankings I use placing them in the 140s. Look for the Stags’ bubble to burst. They are just 9-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 50 points. The Peacocks are a great defensive team — but these Gaels are in another class when it comes to the offense so this will be a much harder test on the Stags’ defensive play this afternoon. As it is, Fairfield ranks 273rd nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which is worse than their 258th ranking in that metric when playing at home. The Stags are going to struggle to keep up as they only make 39.8% of their shots on the road which is generating just 60.5 PPG. Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 55 points. And in their last 5 games when playing their third game in five days, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests. Iona leads the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are averaging 75.2 PPG in their last five games. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning three in a row after conference rivals. The Gaels have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing their second game in three days. Iona has been more effective away from home. While they rank 175th in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they rise to 122nd nationally in that metric on the road. They rank 41st nationally and tops in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They have held their last five opponents to just 36.3% shooting which is resulting in only 63.0 PPG. While they are outscoring their opponents by +6.1 PPG this season, they have outscored their last five opponents by +12.2 PPG during their winning streak. Iona is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. They are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Iona will also have a chip on their shoulder to avenge a 67-52 upset loss at home to Fairfield on December 12th as a 7.5-point underdog. The Gaels ahem covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games when avenging an upset loss as a favorite of at least 7 points. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Iona Gaels (613) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (614). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-12-21 |
New Mexico State v. Utah Valley +6.5 |
Top |
78-62 |
Loss |
-103 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Utah Valley State Wolverines (866) plus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (865) in the Semifinals of the Western Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Utah Valley State (10-10) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 74-64 loss at Grand Canyon as a 7-point underdog. New Mexico State (11-7) won their fourth straight game as well as their sixth of their last seven in a 77-61 victory against Utah Rio Grande Valley last night as a 12-point favorite. The WAC tournament is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: Utah Valley State is rested and motivated by revenge tonight. In their last loss to Grand Canyon last week, they allowed the Antelopes to make 50% of their shots in the worst defensive effort in their last six games. Utah Valley State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. The Wolverines have also covered the points spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Utah Valley State tends to play better on the road where they rank 169th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency as opposed to their 198th ranking when playing at home. The Wolverines are just 271st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — but they climb to 110th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when on the road. It is as if head coach Mark Madsen has constructed his team to be the slayers of this New Mexico State team that has been the perennial powerhouse in the WAC. The Aggies are typically one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation — this season, they rank 11th in the nation by rebounding 36.0% of their missed shots. But the Wolverines limit their opponents to rebounding only 23.9% of their missed shots, 33rd in the nation. Utah Valley also draws tons of fouls — they are third nationally in free throw rate. New Mexico State is 202nd in the nation in defensive free throw rate. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And while they make a healthy 47.5% of their shots, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams who make at least 45% of their shots. New Mexico State made 52% of their shots last night which was the highest field goal percentage in their last five games. But the Aggies are still only making 40.7% of their shots on the road — so the Regression Gods may be making an appearance tonight. New Mexico State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. The Aggies have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against a WAC foe by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a win by at least 15 points. New Mexico State has won their last four games by double-digits — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning four in a row by 10 or more points. The Aggies have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season games with the Wolverines winning the first game on February 19th by a 69-66 score as a 9-point underdog before losing to the New Mexico State, 67-60, on February 20th. Look for this third and final meeting to be a close game where having the points will be very valuable. 25* CBB WAC Game of the Year is on the Utah Valley State Wolverines (866) plus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (865). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-12-21 |
North Carolina v. Florida State -2 |
Top |
66-69 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (854) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (853) in the Semifinals of the ACC Tournament. THE SITUATION: Florida State (15-5) advanced in their quarterfinals matchup with Duke when the Blue Devils pulled out of the tournament after a positive COVID test yesterday. North Carolina (18-9) has won three in a row after their 81-73 win against Virginia Tech as a -0.5-point favorite yesterday. The ACC tournament is being played at the Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES MINUS THE POINTS: Florida State not only dodged Duke yesterday but they gained a situational edge with an extra day of rest against a Tar Heels’ team playing their third game in three days. Leonard Hamilton may very well be the most underrated head coach in the country (all sports) -- and his teams play with energy and a fast pace. Look for the Seminoles to pull away late in this game — they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when playing just their second game in eight days. Florida State will be anxious to get the back taste out of their mouth when they last played on Saturday when they were upset at Notre Dame by an 83-73 score as a 5.5-point favorite in a result that cost them the top seed in this tournament. The Seminoles allowed the Irish to make 42.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. Florida State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. The Seminoles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games under Hamilton. North Carolina may be due for a letdown after their nice recent run. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after winning two in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after winning three in a row. And while North Carolina has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering four of their last five. Roy Williams’ team leads the nation in offensive rebounding — and they are at their best when controlling the glass. They have outrebounded their two opponents in the ACC Tournament by 11 and 23 boards. But the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after outrebounding their last two opponents by at least rebounds. Florida State pounds the offensive glass as well — they rank 16th in the nation in offensive rebounding rate. North Carolina ranks third in the ACC and 60th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they drop to 12th in the ACC and 76th nationally when playing on the road. This is not a good shooting team — they only make 31.6% of their shots from behind the arc which is 273rd in the nation. They rely on shots inside the arc where they make 49.5% of their 2-point attempts — but that is only 101st in the nation. The Seminoles play tough interior defense — they rank 11th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 44.2% shooting inside the arc. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on a neutral court as an underdog getting up to 3 points. And while Florida State averages 79.6 PPG, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who score at least 77 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season encounters — but North Carolina won the last battle in a 78-70 upset win in Chapel Hill as a 2-point dog on February 27th. Florida State has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Year with the Florida State Seminoles (854) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (853). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-10-21 |
Spurs +4.5 v. Mavs |
Top |
104-115 |
Loss |
-112 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (503) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (504). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (18-14) lost two of their last three games going into the All-Star break after a 107-102 upset loss at home to Oklahoma City as a 7-point favorite on March 4th last Thursday. Dallas (18-16) went into the break having won three straight and five of their last six with an 87-78 victory against the Thunder last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. The Spurs have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. And head coach Greg Popovich is very tough when his team has at least three days to rest and prepare as San Antonio has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when playing with at least three days of rest. The extended break allowed for Derrick White, LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay to all clear their COVID quarantine protocols. This is the first time all season (I believe) that the Spurs are at full health and strength. They are 9-4 on the road with an average winning margin of +3.9 PPG. San Antonio has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Spurs have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in six of these last seven situations. San Antonio has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Dallas played their best defensive game of the season last week by holding the Thunder to just 33.3% shooting. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing no more than 85 points in their last game. Dallas has played better over the last few weeks as they got healthier — but consistency has been a problem. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games at home after a point spread victory in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home as a favorite -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: San Antonio will be looking to avenge a 122-117 loss at home to the Mavericks on January 22nd. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 42 of their last 59 opportunities to avenge a loss where they allowed at least 110 points under Popovich. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month with the San Antonio Spurs (503) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-07-21 |
Drexel -4.5 v. College of Charleston |
Top |
80-75 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Drexel Dragons (757) minus the points versus the College of Charleston Cougars (758) in the Quarterfinals of the Colonial Athletic Association tournament. THE SITUATION: Drexel (9-7) looks to build off the momentum of their 84-78 upset win at James Madison as a 1.5-point underdog back on February 26th. Charleston (9-9) takes to the court again for the first time since February 20th when they defeated Columbus State in a non-boarded game, 86-83. This game is being played at the Atlantic Union Bank Center in Harrisburg, Virginia.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DUKES MINUS THE POINTS: Drexel should be comfortable playing on this court with it being the home of James Madison who they just defeated in this building. While the Dragons made 49.1% of their shots in that game, that was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. Drexel has the top Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the CAA — and they rank 28th in the nation by making 54.6% of their shots inside the arc. Defense travels — but so does making shots closer to the basket. The Dragons are a more effective team when playing on the road. While they rank 141st in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they fall to 192nd nationally when playing on their home court. But when Drexel is playing on neutral courts or the opposing team’s court, they rise to 123rd nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency. The Dragons have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court. They also have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games when favored. Drexel also allowed the Dukes to make 50.9% of their shots in their last game which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven contests — so they should play better on that end of the court. Charleston has won four of their last five games — but they are likely to be rusty having not played in more than two weeks. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with more than seven days between games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home where they scored at least 85 points, so any potential momentum is likely a moot point. COVID has it the Colonial Athletic Association hard would plenty of games canceled — that is why the team added their glorified scrimmage with Columbus State. The most recent Division One opponent they have faced was Elon back on February 14th — and they were upset by 11 points as an 8-point favorite. Incredibly, this is just their third game away from home in conference action this season. The Cougars rank 215th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency but fall to 231st in that metric when playing away from home. They are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral court — and they are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games on a neutral court as an underdog. Expectations were pretty high for this season entering the season — but they lost their best player, Brevin Galloway, to a season-ending leg injury in December. Charleston has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The cherry on top for this situation is that Drexel will be motivated by double-revenge. They lost twice on the road to the Cougars this season in early-January by a combined six points with the last meeting being on January 10th in a 73-68 upset loss as a 2-point favorite. The Dragons have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Game of the Year with the Drexel Dragons (757) minus the points versus the College of Charleston Cougars (758). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-21 |
Old Dominion v. Western Kentucky -7 |
Top |
57-60 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (650) minus the points versus the Old Dominion Monarchs (649). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (17-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped last night in a 71-69 upset loss to the Monarchs as a 7-point favorite. Old Dominion (15-6) has won four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky made only 39.6% of their shots last night in what was the worst shooting effort in their last ten games. But they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games after a loss to a conference rival. Additionally, Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a narrow loss by 6 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. They should play better in this one — they are still averaging a 48.3% field goal percentage along with an opponent’s field goal mark of 40.9% in their last five games even after last night. They dropped to 10-2 at home but they are outscoring their visitors by +10.7 PPG. The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite. Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win against a Conference USA foe where they were an underdog getting at least 6 points. Despite pulling the upset on the road last night, the Monarchs are not as good on the road as they are at home. Old Dominion ranks 156th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and they improve to 139th when playing on their home court. But the Monarchs fall to 189th in the nation when playing on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog — and they are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. Furthermore, Old Dominion is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a narrow loss by three points or less. 25* CBB Conference USA Game of the Year with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (650) minus the points versus the Old Dominion Monarchs (649). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-05-21 |
Ball State v. Toledo -9 |
Top |
70-89 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (828) minus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (827). THE SITUATION: Toledo (19-7) looks to bounce back from an 81-79 upset loss at Central Michigan as a 17-point favorite on Tuesday. Ball State (10-11) won their third straight game on Tuesday with their 100-65 blowout win against Eastern Michigan as an 8-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS MINUS THE POINTS: Toledo made only 43.9% of their shots against the Chippewas which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. They also allowed Central Michigan to make 47.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent field goal percentage in their last four contests. The Rockets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they are 11-1 with an average winning margin of +15.7 PPG. They make 48.0% of their shots at home which is generating 82.4 PPG. They also hold their guests to just 40.4% shooting. Toledo has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. The Rockets are 16th in the nation by making 38.4% of their 3-pointers. The Cardinals are one of the best teams defending the perimeter as they rank 29th nationally by holding their opponents to just 30.3% shooting from behind the arc. But they are vulnerable against teams that attack the glass — they allow their opponents to pull down 33.2% of their missed shots, 305th nationally. Toledo is third in the MAC by rebounding 31.5% of their misses when playing at home. The Rockets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games when favored. Ball State held the Eagles to just 36.7% shooting on Tuesday in what was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 30 points against a conference foe. Ball State has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Cardinals have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after winning at least two in a row. Now they go back on the road for the first time since January 30th (not a typo) — they have played seven straight games at home. Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 road games after playing at least three straight games at home. They are just 3-7 on the road while making only 42.9% of their shots for 69.7 PPG — those numbers are a far cry from the 52.1% shooting they enjoyed on Tuesday on their home court. The Cardinals play their best basketball at home. They rank 141st in Adjusted Net Efficiency — they climb to 125th when playing at home. But Ball State falls to 194th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. The Cardinals have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games against a team with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 150s.
FINAL TAKE: Ball State upset Toledo in their previous meeting on February 6th in an 81-67 victory as a 9-point underdog. The Rockets made only 7 of 32 shots from behind the arc — but they make 38.7% of their 3-pointers at home. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Game of the Year with the Toledo Rockets (828) minus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (827). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-04-21 |
Texas v. Oklahoma -2 |
Top |
69-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (750) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (749). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (14-8) has lost three in a row after their 79-75 upset loss at Oklahoma State as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Texas (15-7) has won four of their last six games after their 81-67 win at Iowa State as a 12.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma lost their third straight close game on Monday — their three losses were by a combined 13 points. The Regression Gods should be making a visit to Norman soon. They allowed the Cowboys to make 52.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 19 games. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss. Oklahoma has also covered the point spread in 29 of their last 42 home games after losing two in a row against Big 12 foes. And while this is the Sooners’ third game since Saturday, they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 home games when playing their third game in seven or fewer days. Oklahoma does return home where they are 10-2 with an average winning margin of +15.1 PPG scoring average. The Sooners hold their visitors to 39.2% shooting — and they are scoring a healthy 80.2 PPG at home. While they rank 28th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they improve to 16th in that metric when evaluating how teams play on their home court. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games with the Total set in the 140s. Furthermore, the Sooners have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games. Texas made 51% of their shots on Tuesday against the Cyclones which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. Yet the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 10 or more points on the road. Furthermore, the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after winning four or five of their last six games after winning four or five of their last six. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 140s. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Longhorns are just 1-6-1 ATS.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma won the first meeting between these two teams on January 26th by an 80-70score with the Longhorns undermanned given COVID issues at the time. But Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN Game of the Year with the Oklahoma Sooners (750) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (749). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-04-21 |
Pistons v. Knicks -6.5 |
Top |
104-114 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (564) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (563). THE SITUATION: New York (18-18) saw their three-game winning streak end on Tuesday in their 119-93 upset loss at San Antonio as a 1.5-point favorite. Detroit (10-25) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 129-105 upset victory at Toronto as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: Don’t read too much into the Pistons victory against the Raptors last night — Toronto could barely field a roster given their recent COVID outbreak. The Raptors were missing Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and O.G. Agunoby amongst five players along with head coach Nick Nurse. A Detroit team consisting of reserves made 52.7% of their shots in what was the second-best shooting effort in their last seven games. Head coach Dwane Casey deserves credit for getting every ounce of effort and energy out of the roster he has been left with. But a letdown is likely after last night — especially with the team in New York (even in a pandemic) on the final night before the All-Star Game weekend break. As it is, Detroit is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-6-1 ATS in the last 8 games after a double-digit victory. The Pistons have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Detroit entered the year with one of the worst starting fives in the NBA — and most of those guys are not available tonight. Jerami Grant has been their best player and leads the team with a 23.4 PPG average — but he is questionable with a quad (and why play him before the break). Derrick Rose was the team’s second-leading scorer — but he was traded to these Knicks. Josh Jackson is the third-leading scorer with a 13.5 PPG clip — and he is out with an illness that kept him out of last night’s game. The fourth-leading scorer, Blake Griffin, is not playing as he awaits being traded to another team that will become disappointed with his effort. Deion Wright, the team’s fifth-leading scorer with a 10.7 PPG mark, is out with a groin. Killian Hayes and Jahlil Okafor are both out with injuries. The Pistons lineup tonight will feature Wayne Ellington, Mason Plumlee, and Dennis Smith. As it is, this is a team that is 4-15 on the road while allowing their home hosts to score 114.6 PPG on 49.0% shooting. The Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. New York only made 40.7% of their shots on Tuesday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. But the Knicks have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road. New York has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Julius Randle only scored 14 points on 6 of 16 shooting which was his lowest scoring output since February 9th. Randle is scoring 23.1 PPG and pulling down 10.9 Rebounds-Per-Game in his breakout season. This team is playing surprisingly well for first-year head coach Tom Thibodeau. It all starts on defense for Thibs with the Knicks leading the league by allowing only 104.4 PPG — and their play on that end of the court is legit as they rank second in the NBA in Defensive Rating. Overall, New York is a respectable 14th in the league in Net Rating. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after winning two of their last three games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home for their only home game before March 18th again. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home in Madison Square Garden — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing their last two on the road. New York has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. The Knicks have some missing players with Elfrid Payton and Taj Gibson out — but they should get Derrick Rose back after he was held out of Tuesday’s game because of an inconclusive COVID test. Rose has injected some needed-offense into the team — he has averaged 16.3 PPG in his three previous games on 52.8% shooting and a 62.3% mark from behind the arc. Over their last five games, the Knicks are scoring 111.7 PPG on 47.7% shooting. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 range. New York has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Motivation is also a concern on the last night before the All-Star Game break. The Knicks should be motivated to redeem themselves (especially Randle) from their loss on Tuesday — and a win tonight ensures a record above .500 going into the break. Detroit may want to avenge their 109-90 loss at home to New York on February 28th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 63 games when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Game of the Year with the New York Knicks (564) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (563). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-03-21 |
Bulls +6 v. Pelicans |
Top |
128-124 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (537) plus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (538). THE SITUATION: Chicago (15-18) has lost two in a row after their 118-112 loss to Denver as a 4.5-point underdog on Monday. New Orleans (15-19) has won three of their last five games with their 129-124 upset victory at home against Utah on Monday as a 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago played the Nuggets as they rallied from being down 15 points to take a six-point lead with eight minutes but let the game slip away. The Bulls did not play particularly well — they only made 44.7% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last five games. They also allowed Denver to nail 52.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal mark in their last eight contests. This team continues to improve under first-year head coach Billy Donovan while Zach Lavigne continues to grow into being a legitimate star in this league. Chicago is still making 53.3% of their shots over their last five games — and their opponent’s field goal percentage of 46.0% during that span is improved over their 47.5% mark for the season. They should bounce-back to play well tonight — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss while also covering the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after a narrow loss by six points or less. The Bulls have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while they have allowed their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing two straight opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. This is Chicago’s sixth straight games against a Western Conference opponent — but not only have they covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after playing a Western Conference foe in their previous game but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 road games after playing at least two straight non-conference games. They have been capable road warriors this season with an 8-7 mark away from home with an averaging winning margin of +3.0 PPG while shooting 49.0% of their shots. The Bulls have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games with the total set at 220 or higher. Furthermore, Chicago has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record. New Orleans is a prime candidate for an emotional letdown after upsetting the hottest team in the league in the Jazz. They made 56.5% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games — and they played their best defensive game in their last eleven by holding Utah to 45.5% shooting. As it is, the Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by six points or less. New Orleans has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Not only are the Pelicans consistently inconsistent (good for us) but they tend to not do well when they get comfortable in playing high-scoring games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 115 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Additionally, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a game where at least 245 combined points were scored. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored by six points or less. The Pelicans have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Defense remains a problem of head coach Stan Van Gundy’s team as they have allowed their last five opponents to score 120.6 PPG on 47.9% shooting. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago nailed a franchise-record 25 shots from behind the arc in a 129-116 win at home against New Orleans on February 10th. The Pelicans will want revenge — but the Bulls have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games played in the Big Easy. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Underdog of the Year with the Chicago Bulls (537) plus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-02-21 |
Suns +2 v. Lakers |
Top |
114-104 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (527) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (528). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (22-11) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 118-99 win at Minnesota on Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Los Angeles (24-11) won their second-straight game on Sunday with their 117-91 win against Golden State as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINTS: Phoenix cruised against the Timberwolves despite shooting 49.4% from the field which sounds good — but it was actually the lowest field goal percentage in their last seven games (maybe costing us the Over that night!). The Suns are averaging a 50.8% shooting percentage in their last five games which is generating 121.0 PPG. They should build off their momentum tonight with the opportunity to knock off the reigning NBA champions. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 straight games on the road after a win by 10 or more points. The Suns have scored at least 106 points in 11 straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 105 points in at least five straight games. They also have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after scoring at least 115 points in their last contest. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games on the road after covering the point spread in their last two games. And while this is their third game on the road since Thursday, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games when playing their third game in five days on the road. Phoenix has an 11-5 record on the road (versus their 11-6 record at home) — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games as an underdog. Los Angeles hit rock bottom last week when they were crushed on the road in Utah in a fourth straight loss. The champs picked themselves off the mat with two straight wins. Getting Dennis Schroder back from quarantine has helped. Yet consistency and focus remain an issue for this team even when they have had Anthony Davis healthy. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home. Los Angeles raced out to a 73-44 halftime lead against the Warriors on Sunday but they have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 40 games at home after owning a halftime lead of at least 20 points in their last game. The Lakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of the last 15 home games after a win by at least 10 points at home in their last game. Additionally, LA has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Lakers have not played great at home in the Staples Center without fans as they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 18 home games this season.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against a team winning at least 60% of their games — and Phoenix has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Pacific Division Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (527) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-01-21 |
Oklahoma +1 v. Oklahoma State |
Top |
75-79 |
Loss |
-113 |
7 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (845) minus the point(s) versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (846). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (14-7) lost their second-straight game on Saturday in a 94-90 loss in overtime at home to the Cowboys. Oklahoma State (16-6) has won four games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Oklahoma should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. Additionally, the Sooners have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after losing two in a row. Oklahoma travels to Stillwater for this rematch — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Sooners are a defense-first team that ranks 39th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 19th in opponent’s field goal percentage inside the arc. They are led by senior point guard Austin Reaves who leads the team in scoring, rebounds, and assists. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. They also have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games with the total set in the 140s. And in their last 20 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Sooners have covered the point spread in 14 of these contests. Oklahoma State may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread 13 of their last 20 games after an upset victory against a Big 12 rival as an underdog getting at least 6 points. Additionally, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Furthermore, Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after winning at least two in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games after winning at least three in a row. The quick turnaround will not help either as the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Oklahoma State is overvalued when playing at home. They rank 32nd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but while they are 34th nationally on the road, they plummet to 51st nationally when playing at home in Stillwater. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games as an underdog getting up to 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Game of the Month with the Oklahoma Sooners (845) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (846). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-28-21 |
Lafayette -3 v. Lehigh |
Top |
71-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Lafayette Leopards (1511) minus the points versus the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (1512). THE SITUATION: Lafayette (8-5) has won three of their last four games with their 75-69 win at home against the Mountain Hawks yesterday. Lehigh (4-9) has now lost four of their last five games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LEOPARDS MINUS THE POINTS: Lafayette should build off their momentum from yesterday as they are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a win against a Patriot League foe. The Leopards have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with one day or less of rest. They now go on the road where the metrics say they play better. Lafayette ranks 234rd nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but while they are 236th when at home, they climb to 217th when on the road. The Leopards are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 road games with the number in the 140s. Additionally, Lafayette has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as a favorite. The Leopards have the second-best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency numbers in the Patriot League — and they lead the conference by nailing 37.5% of their 3-pointers on the road. Lehigh has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss on the road to a conference rival. The Mountain Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games when playing day or less of rest. Lehigh is 1-4 at home where they are getting outscored by -13.0 PPG — and they have retained more value as a road underdog yesterday. The Mountains Lions are 306th in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they are even worse at home with a 337th ranking as compared to their 268th rating when playing on the road. Lehigh has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. This is not a good basketball team — they rank 10th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 8th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Patriot League. They have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.4% of their shots while making only 37.3% of their shots over that span. The Mountain Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Lehigh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a loss. The Mountain Lions beat the Leopards on January 2nd but have since lost the next two meetings this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when motivated by double-revenge. 25* CBB Patriot League Game of the Month with the Lafayette Leopards (1511) minus the points versus the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (1512). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-21 |
CS-Northridge +10 v. CS Bakersfield |
Top |
90-87 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the CS-Northridge Matadors (771) plus the points versus the CS-Bakersfield Roadrunners (772). THE SITUATION: CS-Northridge (8-10) has lost three of their last four games after their 84-58 loss at CS-Bakersfield last night as an 8-point underdog. CS-Bakersfield (15-9) snapped a two-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MATADORS PLUS THE POINTS: Just a bad night for CS-Northridge as they made only 39.0% of their shots — and they allowed the Roadrunners to shoot 54.1% from the field in what was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. But head coach Mike Gottfried’s team has rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Matadors usually are competitive against good teams as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. CS-Northridge is also 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams who win at least 60% of their games at home. Additionally, the Matadors have covered the point spread 12 of their last 17 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games as a dog getting 6.5 to 12 points. CS-Bakersfield had their best shooting effort in ten games with their 54.5% clip last night. They also enjoyed the best defensive effort in their last ten games by holding the Matadors to 39.0% shooting. They raced out to a 47-22 halftime lead — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after holding a halftime lead of at least 20 points. Additionally, the Roadrunners have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least 20 points. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. CS-Bakersfield remains just 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games at home — and they are only 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 home games when favored. The Roadrunners are just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: CS-Northridge has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games when avenging a loss by at least 20 points. Last night was an outlier — the Matadors will play better and we are getting two more points of value from last night’s point spread. 25* CBB Big West Underdog of the Year with the CS-Northridge Matadors (771) plus the points versus the CS-Bakersfield Roadrunners (772). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-21 |
Pelicans v. Spurs +2.5 |
Top |
114-117 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (552) plus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (551). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (16-12) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in a 102-99 upset loss at home against Oklahoma State as a 1-point favorite. New Orleans (14-18) had their two-game winning streak end on Thursday in a 129-125 loss at Milwaukee as an 8-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio had not played February 14th when they took the court on Wednesday — and they had a handful of players still out due to COVID quarantine protocols including DeMar DeRozan. The Spurs still have Dejounte Murray, Patty Mills, Lonnie Walker IV leading the way — and no one gets more out of every player on the roster than head coach Gregg Popovich. When I received the news that DeRozan was upgraded to probable for tonight’s game, I signed off. DeRozan is having an incredible season, albeit under the radar. He is scoring 19.8 PPG while adding 5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game and 6.9 Assists-Per-Game. He is also playing every position but center while being able to guard effectively at all four positions. His flexibility allows the Spurs to play several different lineups to maximize match-up edges. This is a solid basketball team that plays hard every night — and they remain as well-coached from night-to-night as any team in the league. Against Stan Van Gundy? Mismatch (what does someone have to do to stop getting NBA head coaching jobs? Mark Jackson knows the answer to that). San Antonio will play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with two days of rest. They return home to the AT&T Center for the first time since February 9th after their regular February exodus due to the San Antonio rodeo (PPD this year). The Spurs have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 home games as an underdog. Additionally, San Antonio has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 53 games after a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by 6 points or less. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. The Pelicans remain a disaster on defense under the guidance of defensive wizardry of Van Gundy and his 1996 principles being deployed in his first season in the Big Easy. New Orleans is second-to-last in the league in their Defensive Rating. And while it may be tempting to give Van Gundy a pass given the lack of a typical preseason, the Pelicans have allowed their last five opponents to make 51.0% of their shots for 124.0 PPG. The Pelicans have now played ten straight Overs — but this style of play is not helping this team. Not only has New Orleans failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after playing at least two straight Overs. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when playing with one day of rest. They stay on the road where they are 5-11 — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 4 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They also allow their home hosts to make 48.5% of their shots which is generating 116.5 PPG for the home teams. Furthermore, the Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. J.J. Redick is doubtful tonight with a hamstring.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Spurs. The lone exception during that stretch was a 98-95 win at home against San Antonio as a 4.5-point favorite on December 27th. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 59 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Southwest Division Underdog of the Year with the San Antonio Spurs (552) plus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-21 |
Portland State +2 v. Northern Colorado |
Top |
73-65 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Portland State Pilots (643) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (644). THE SITUATION: Portland State (8-10) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Thursday in a 66-64 loss at Northern Colorado in a pick ‘em matchup. Northern Colorado (10-8) has won two in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PILOTS PLUS THE POINTS: Portland State made only 32.8% of their shots on Thursday in the worst shooting effort in their last 14 games. They should shoot better this afternoon being more familiar with the gym. As it is, the Pilots have covered the point spread 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss on the road to a conference foe. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, head coach Barret Peery’s team has been very good playing on short rest. They have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 24 games when playing with one day or less of rest including six straight games under those circumstances. Portland State has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing their second game on the road in three days. Peery has his team do the little things to create more scoring opportunities — so they should be in good shape in this rematch if they can approach making 40% of their shots. The Pilots lead the Big Sky by pulling down 32.5% of their missed shots. They also lead the conference in forcing turnovers in 25.7% of their opponent’s possessions — and the Bears are 8th in the Big Sky by turning the ball over in 19.1% of their possessions. Portland State may be just 1-6 on the road but they are losing these games by an average of -1.5 PPG. They hold their home hosts to just 42.8% shooting. The Pilots are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games as an underdog. Northern Colorado played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Pilots to 32.8% shooting. This is the Bears’ third game since Monday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games when playing their third home game in seven days. They rank 237th in Adjusted Net Efficiency by the deeper metrics — but they fall to 255th in the Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home. Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total in the 130s. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored overall.
FINAL TAKE: Portland State has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 26 games when playing with revenge including five of these last seven situations. They also have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Big Sky Underdog of the Year with the Portland State Pilots (643) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (644). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-21 |
Clippers -6.5 v. Grizzlies |
Top |
119-99 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (539) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (540). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (23-11) has lost two of three after their 122-94 upset loss at Memphis as an 8-point favorite last night. Memphis (14-14) snapped a two-game losing streak with the win.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Grizzlies are getting healthy again with Brandon Clarke, Grayson Allen, and Justise Winslow back on the court and in the regular rotation. Ja Morant has missed eight games this season as well with an ankle injury. The team displayed their potential last night in a game where they were winning by 30 points at one point. Yet this effort was an outlier. The Grizzlies held the Clippers to 40.5% shooting in what was the best defensive performance of their season. They also made 54.3% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last 13 games. But Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit victory. The Grizzlies host this rematch where they have still failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a home underdog. Killian Tillie is listed as questionable tonight with a foot injury. And in Memphis’ last 8 games as an underdog, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games. Los Angeles should play better on defense tonight after Memphis had the best field goal percentage in them in 12 games. The Clippers also had the worst shooting percentage on offense in their last 16 games. Yet LA is still ranked third in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency under first-year head coach Tyron Lue. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George combined to make only two of their nine shots from 3-point land. Leonard has been his typical excellent self this season — but it is George who has stepped up his game amidst off-season criticism to score 24.8 PPG while nailing 48.1% of his 3-pointers so far this year. The Clippers should step up with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 56 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles has also covered the points spread in 19 of their last 28 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 37 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, the Clippers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a loss by at least 10 points. LA has been very good on the road with an 11-5 record and an average winning margin of +6.6 PPG. They are making 48.4% of their shots away from home which is generating 114.5 PPG. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 65 road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games on the road when avenging a same-season loss. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Clippers (539) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-21 |
Celtics +3 v. Mavs |
Top |
107-110 |
Push |
0 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (571) minus (or plus) the Dallas Mavericks (572). THE SITUATION: Boston (15-15) looks to rebound from a 120-115 upset loss in overtime at New Orleans as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Dallas (14-15) won their fifth game in their last six last night with their 102-92 win against Memphis as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINTS: Boston blew a 24-point lead on Sunday against the Pelicans. The Celtics made only 39.8% of their shots in what was the lowest shooting effort in their last four games. Boston should pick themselves up off the mat after that embarrassing result on national television. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Boston has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss on the road as a favorite. Head coach Brad Stevens’ team is struggling — but this group has been rarely been at full strength due to injuries. Marcus Smart is out with a calf injury but the group’s Big Three of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Kemba Walker will be on the court together for this game which has not been the case for many of their games this season. Consistency has been a problem — and the Celtics need help on their frontline. But Tatum and Brown are rising superstars in this league who are only 22 and 24-years old — the vision for general manager Danny Ainge is that this team will be elite for years with two of the top-ten players in the game over the next several years. Boston has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. And in their last 5 games with the Total set at 235 or higher, they have covered the point spread in 4 of these contests. Dallas held the Grizzlies to just 39.4% shooting last night which was the best defensive effort in their last 19 games. The Mavericks are struggling at that end of the court — they rank 24th in Defensive Rating this season. They had not played since Valentine’s Day before last night — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when playing without rest. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win over a Southwest Division rival. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after a win. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Mavs have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas was an overnight favorite but moved to the underdog with the news that Kristaps Porzingis is questionable with his knee. Even if Porzingis plays tonight, I like the Celtics — but his absence certainly helps. Boston has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings with the Mavericks — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 trips to Dallas to face them. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Tuesday TNT Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (571) minus (or plus) the Dallas Mavericks (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-17-21 |
Marquette v. Butler -2 |
Top |
73-57 |
Loss |
-108 |
7 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Butler Bulldogs (672) minus the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (671). THE SITUATION: Butler (7-11) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in a 78-63 loss at Georgetown as a 1.5-point underdog. Marquette (9-12) has lost three in a row after their 57-51 loss at Seton Hall as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Butler made only 39.0% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Bulldogs have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. And while Butler has lost four of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. They return home where they are 6-3 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on their home court. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. Butler has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games in expected close contests when they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. Head coach LeVall Jordan’s team ranks 27th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding only 23.3% of their missed shots. This skill will come in handy against this Golden Eagles team that rebounds 30.4% of their misses shots, ranking 97th nationally. Marquette lost to the Pirates on Sunday despite holding them to just 37.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. The Golden Eagles have still allowed their last five opponents to make 46.6% of their shots. Marquette has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a loss by 6 points or less. Marquette is slumping with six losses in their last seven games while only covering the point spread twice in their last eight games. That is not a good sign for them tonight. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after losing at least four or five of their last six games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They stay on the road for the third game of a rough five-game road trip. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their home games. The Golden Eagles are just 3-5 on the road — and they allow their home hosts to make 38.1% of their 3-pointers, 282nd in the nation. Marquette has not covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Golden Eagles miss freshman Justin Lewis who has missed the last two games doe to a leg injury that leaves him questionable tonight. While he is is scoring only 8.1 PPG, he is one of their best defenders. Butler will be motivated to avenge a 70-67 loss at Marquette on February 2nd as a 4.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Wednesday FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Butler Bulldogs (672) minus the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (671). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-16-21 |
Nuggets v. Celtics -1.5 |
Top |
99-112 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (536) minus the point(s) versus the Denver Nuggets (535). THE SITUATION: Boston (13-13) has lost two straight games after their 104-91 upset loss at Washington as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Denver (15-11) has won three in a row with their 122-105 upset win against the Los Angeles Lakers Sunday night as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINT(S): Boston shot only 35.6% of their shots on Sunday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. That was the Celtics’ second-straight upset loss after getting stung by Detroit on Friday in a 108-102 loss as a 7-point underdog. The consensus from the players is that they simply need to work harder. Boston has lost ten of their last fifteen games — but injuries have played a role. Marcus Smart is still out with his calf injury after missing the last couple of weeks. But Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown are back on the court after missing time to join Jayson Tatum to form their big three. Brown and Tatum are emerging into superstars in this league. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. Boston has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after a point spread loss. Boston has played two straight Unders — but they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games after playing two straight Unders. And while the Celtics have only covered the point spread once in their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after not covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored by up to 6 points. Denver may be due for a letdown after upset the defending NBA champions — they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a win by at least 15 points. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 road games after a double-digit win. Additionally, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 36 games after winning at least two in a row. And they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games after scoring at least 120 points in their last game including six of these eight occasions this season. The Nuggets are ravaged with injuries: Will Barton, Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, and PJ Dozier are all out with Monte Morris questionable with a shoulder. Those players are two starters and another three important rotation players. Denver goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. Boston has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Non-Conference Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (536) minus the point(s) versus the Denver Nuggets (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-21 |
Fairfield v. St. Peter's -10 |
Top |
49-66 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (820) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (819). THE SITUATION: Saint Peter’s (9-7) had won three of their last four games before getting upset at home yesterday to the Stags, 55-50, despite being an 11-point favorite. Fairfield (5-13) has pulled off two straight upset victories.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PEACOCKS MINUS THE POINTS: When Saint Peter’s struggles, it is because they can’t make baskets. The Peacocks made only 32.7% of their shots yesterday which was the third-lowest shooting mark for them all season and their worst shooting effort when playing at home. Leading scorer KC Ndefo was in foul trouble all game and played only 22 minutes — so the reset today will help. These two teams went into halftime yesterday with the score tied, 17-17. Saint Peter’s has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. Saint Peter’s has also covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games after playing at home where they did not score more than 60 points. Head coach Shaheen Holloway’s group does play ferocious defense — Saint Peter’s ranks second in the nation by holding their opponents to just 41.2% shooting inside the arc. They held Fairfield to 37.3% shooting which was actually the highest opponent field goal percentage they allowed in their last six games. The Peacocks’ also force turnovers in 22.0% of their opponent’s possessions which is 42nd in the country. The Stags are loose with the basketball — they turn the ball over in 21.2% of their possessions away from, 245th in the nation. They turned the ball over 17 times yesterday accounting for 27.7% of their possessions. Saint Peter’s should get plenty of easy scoring chances tonight — they just need to make more than just 2 of 17 shots from behind the arc as they did yesterday. The Peacocks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They suffered their first loss at home in six games yesterday — but they are still outscoring their visitors by +7.9 PPG due to their defense that holds their opponents to 55.8 PPG on 35.4% shooting. Saint Peter’s has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by 9.5 to 12 points. Fairfield is 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. The Stags have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after an upset win as a road underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after an upset win against a conference opponent. Fairfield’s defensive effort was out of the ordinary — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after holding their previous opponent to 33% of less shooting. The Stags have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after not allowing more than 50 points. They allow their home hosts to made 45.3% of their shots which results in 70.0 PPG — and they allow conference foes to shoot 46.5%. Fairfield may not crack 50 points in this rematch either as they score only 58.0 PPG on the road on 38.4% shooting. The Stags have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their shots at home. Fairfield has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total under 130.
FINAL TAKE: Four of Saint Peter’s nine wins have been by double-digits — so they have been able to generate enough offense to cover 10 or so points. The Peacocks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when playing with same-season revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite laying 7 or more points. Saint Peter’s has also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (820) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (819). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-13-21 |
Samford v. VMI -5 |
Top |
56-85 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the VMI Keydets (616) minus the points versus the Samford Bears (615). VMI (10-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 74-72 loss at Western Carolina on Wednesday as a 1.5-point underdog. Samford (6-10) has lost three straight games as well as seven of their last eight with their 77-70 loss to Mercer as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KEYDETS MINUS THE POINTS: VMI allowed the Catamounts to make 45.2% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. They should play better this afternoon since they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — including covering the point spread in seven of these last eight situations. The Keydets have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss to a Southern Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road. This is VMI’s just second game since February 3rd — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games if they are not playing more than their second game in the last week. They return home where they are 9-1 this season with an average winning margin of +16.1 PPG. They make 50.6% of their shots at home which is generating 89.2 PPG — and they hold their guests to just 40.8% shooting from the field. The Keydets have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games including their last seven games. They also have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. This is VMI’s first home game in their last four games after playing their last three contests on the road. Their last home game was on January 27th — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games after playing at least their last three games on the road. The Keydets are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation as they are 24th nationally with a 38.2% shooting mark from behind the arc — and they improve to a 43.6% shooting percentage from downtown when playing in their own gym, 10th best in the nation. Defending the perimeter is an area of weakness for the Bulldogs as they rank 332nd nationally by allowing their opponents to nail 47.7% of their 3-pointers when they are playing on the road. Samford is also 323rd in the nation with an opponent's free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 41.0% — and VMI makes 78.7% of their free throws at home, ranking 23rd nationally. The Bulldogs make 47.3% of their shots on Wednesday in a losing effort which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. But Samford has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after losing two in a row. The Bulldogs have surrendered at least 77 points in their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 75 points in two straight contests. They go back on the road where they are just 2-5 this season — and they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games. Additionally, Samford has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the total set in the 150s — and they are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Bulldogs make only 29.4% of their 3-pointers, 313th nationally, so it may be difficult for them to stay competitive in this one. VMI averages 11 made 3-pointers per game — and Samford has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after 15 games into the season against teams who average at least 8 made 3s per contest. The Bulldogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games with the Total in the 150s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: VMI will be motivated to avenge an 84-71 loss at Samford as a 2.5-point underdog on December 30th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Southern Conference Game of the Year with the VMI Keydets (616) minus the points versus the Samford Bears (615). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-11-21 |
Pacers -2.5 v. Pistons |
Top |
111-95 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (533) minus points versus the Detroit Pistons (534). THE SITUATION: Indiana (12-13) has lost four games in a row after their 104-94 upset loss at Brooklyn last night as a 1.5-point favorite. Detroit (6-18) snapped a four-game losing streak on Tuesday with their 122-111 upset win against the Nets as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana made only 39.1% of their shots last night in what was the worst offensive effort of their season. The Pacers’ starting five scored only 51 points in that game. Indiana should play much better tonight. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their 8 games this season after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit upset loss. Indiana has not covered the point spread in four straight games as well as six of their last seven — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. And the Pacers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. Indiana stays on the road where they are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games as a favorite. The Pacers are without T.J. Warren and Caris LeVert who they acquired in the Victor Oladipo trade — but they have still taken care of business with a 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40%. The Pistons play at a fast tempo who averages 89 shot attempts-per-game — but Indiana has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 road games against teams who average at least 88 shots-per-game. Detroit made 56% of their shots on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort of their season in what was just the third time all season that they made at least 50% of their shots — but they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win. They are also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by at least 10 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset win by at least 10 points. The Pistons have also failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 38 games after a point spread win. They did allow the Nets to make 50% of their shots on the heels of allowing the Laker to make 56.0% of their shots in their previous game. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. The Pistons are also 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing with one day of rest. Head coach Duane Casey is doing a fine job with one of the worst rosters in the league. Detroit is usually competitive — but they lost one of their best players over the weekend when they shipped Derrick Rose to New York for the underachieving Dennis Smith who was one of the worst players in the NBA last season before getting relegated to the end of the bench for the Knicks (!) this year. Maybe Smith can be salvaged but that will be a long-term project. Detroit shoots only 42.7% when playing at home so their shooting should come back to earth when now playing a team that attempts to play defense (versus the Kyrie Irving/James Harden Nets’ last night). The Pistons have scored 251 points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 110 points in two straight games. Detroit is also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games against Central Division foes. And while this is a team that plays hard most nights, they have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of their expected close games this season. Look for Indiana to take care of this business in this winnable game. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Central Division Game of the Year with the Indiana Pacers (533) minus points versus the Detroit Pistons (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-11-21 |
Colorado v. Stanford +1 |
Top |
69-51 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Stanford Cardinal (718) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus Colorado Buffaloes (717). THE SITUATION: Stanford (12-7) has won two games in a row after their 76-70 win against California as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday. Colorado (15-5) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 78-49 win against Oregon State as a 13-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINAL PLUS THE POINT(S): The Buffaloes made 55.8% of their shots for the second-straight game to defeat the Beavers. But Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. They also held Oregon State to just 32.7% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last 15 games. But the Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing no more than 50 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win against a Pac-12 foe — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after winning at least 15 of their last 20 games. Now after getting rich at home in the high-altitude of Boulder where they are 8-1 this season after a four-game homestand, they go back on the road for the first time since January 23rd. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning their previous two games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on the road after winning their last two games at home. Furthermore, the Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games after playing at least three straight games at home. Colorado ranks 7th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home fueled by them nailing 44.0% of their 3-pointers in Boulder, 8th best in the nation. But in their eight true road games on their opponent’s home court, the Buffaloes make only 29.7% of their 3-pointers, 269th in the nation, while falling to 68th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in true road games. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 42 of their last 56 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 47 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Stanford has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a win at home against a Pac-12 foe. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after winning at least two in a row. The Cardinal made 58.3% of their shots against the Golden Bears — but that was the third straight game when they shot at least 51.9% from the field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after shooting at least 55% in their last contest. This is a very tough team to beat if they are making their shots as they rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are also 9th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line. They are 5-1 at home where they are making 51.4% of their shots while holding their guests to 41.1% shooting. Stanford is 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games at home — and they are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Cardinal will be looking to avenge a 77-64 loss at Colorado on January 16th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with same-season revenge. Stanford has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Thursday ESPNU Game of the Year with the Stanford Cardinal (718) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus Colorado Buffaloes (717). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-10-21 |
Virginia v. Georgia Tech +4.5 |
Top |
57-49 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (670) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (669). THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (9-6) has won two of their last three games with their 82-80 win against Notre Dame as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. Virginia (13-3) has won nine of their last ten with their 73-66 victory against Pittsburgh as an 11-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE YELLOW JACKETS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia Tech should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a home win against an ACC rival. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by 6 points or less. Additionally, the Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home as a favorite where they did not cover the point spread. Georgia Tech shot a season-high 58.3% from the field on Saturday which would usually give me pause — but that was the fifth time in their last nine games where they shot at least 50% from the field. Furthermore, good offensive efforts are usually a good sign for this team as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after shooting at least 55% from the field — including both times this season. They stay at home on North Avenue in Atlanta where they rank 22nd in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Yellow Jackets are 7-2 at home with an average winning margin of +8.6 net PPG. Georgia Tech scores 83.0 PPG at home where they make 48.7% of their shots. The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games as an underdog. They did allow the Fighting Irish to make 59.3% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst defensive effort of their season — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. And while Georgia Tech has not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in two straight contests. This is a program that has covered the point spread in 50 of their last 74 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Virginia made 53.2% of their shots on Saturday against Pitt which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. The Cavaliers have allowed only 27 and 24 points in the first half in two straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. Virginia has been favored in ten straight games since their showdown with Gonzaga — but not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after being favored in at least four straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after being favored in at least five straight games. They go back on the road where they are just 4-3 this season — and they are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record at home. The Cavaliers are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when favored — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia Tech will be looking to avenge a narrow 64-62 loss to the Cavaliers in Charlottesville on January 23rd as an 8.5-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 53 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 3 points or less. 25* CBB ACC Underdog of the Year with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (670) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (669). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-08-21 |
Oklahoma State v. Kansas -4.5 |
Top |
66-78 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (864) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (863). THE SITUATION: Kansas (12-7) has lost five of their last seven games after their 91-79 loss at West Virginia on Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. Oklahoma State (12-5) has won three of their last four games after their 75-67 win in double-overtime against Texas on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas allowed the Mountaineers to make 50% of their shots — that was just the fourth time all season that they have allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field. The Jayhawks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing their last opponent to score at least 90 points in their last game. The five losses for head coach Bill Self’s team were all on the road during this recent tough stretch of games — and the two wins were their only two games at home at Allen Fieldhouse. This is just their third game at home since January 9th. Playing at home will help — Kansas is 8-1 on their home court this season while outscoring their opponents by +12.1 PPG. The Jayhawks should play much better on the defensive end of the court as they hold their guests to just 38.5% shooting which is resulting in just 60.8 PPG. This team has been very reliable under Self when bouncing-back from losses. Kansas is 46-21-3 ATS in their last 70 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss to a Big 12 rival. The Jayhawks have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a loss on the road by 10 or more points. Kansas has only covered the point spread twice in their last eight games — but they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games including covering the point spread in four of these last five situations. Playing at home should help the Jayhawks get a few more whistles (even without fans) as their opponents have only been called for 12 and 13 personal fouls in their last two games. Kansas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing two straight games where their opponents did not get call for more than 15 personal fouls in their last game. Oklahoma State held the Longhorns to just 25.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort of their season. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding their previous opponent to no better than 33% shooting. Additionally, Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset win as a home dog. Furthermore, the Cowboys are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning three of their last four games. Now Oklahoma State goes back on the road for just the third time since January 9th. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 50 of their last 77 road games as an underdog of 6 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 6 point range. Oklahoma State has been living on the edge as they have allowed their last two opponents to attempt 11 and 12 more shots from the field. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after taking at least 10 fewer shots than their opponent in two straight contests.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas will be motivated to avenge a 75-70 upset loss at Oklahoma State as a 3.5-point underdog on January 12th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging an upset loss. 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Game of the Year with the Kansas Jayhawks (864) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (863). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-21 |
Grizzlies +1.5 v. Pelicans |
Top |
109-118 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (553) plus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (534). Memphis (9-8) has lost two in a row after their 115-103 upset loss at home to Houston on Thursday as a 4-point favorite. New Orleans (9-12) has won two in a row with their 114-113 upset win at Indiana last night as a 1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis had been on a seven-game winning streak where they held allowed only 104.3 PPG before losing their last two games against the Rockets and Indiana by double-digits. The Grizzlies made only 42.5% of their shots which was the worst offensive effort in their last ten games. This group had been doing better in provide offensive support for their superstar, Ja Morant. Memphis has still made 49.9% of their shots in their last five games while averaging 117.8 PPG over that span. The Grizzlies’ starters combined to make only 34.6% of their shots with Morant only 6 of 15 for 15 points. Memphis should respond with a better effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing two in a row by 10 or more points. Taylor Jenkins is one of the most underrated coaches in the NBA. Even with this team playing without two of their top three players, Jaren Jackson, Jr. and Justise Winslow, while being hit pretty hard by COVID quarantining protocols, Memphis remains seventh in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. Defense travels — and the Grizzlies are 6-2 on the road with an average winning margin of +8.5 PPG while making 48.5% of their shots. Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Killian Tillie has been downgraded to out with a foot issue and Brandon Clarke is questionable with a calf — but reinforcements are returning for Jenkins with Jonas Valanciunas and Grayson Allen upgraded to probable after being in quarantine. New Orleans has pulled off two straight upset victories against Phoenix and the Pacers last night — and they have won four of their last six games. The Pelicans made 53.9% of their shots last night in what was the best shooting effort of the season. They also held Indiana to 44.1% shooting in what was the best defensive performance in their last five games — although the Pacers did make 20 of their 42 shots from downtown. New Orleans has still allowed their last five opponents to make 47.5% of their shots which has resulted in 116.8 PPG. The Pelicans are 25th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency under the first-year of head coach Stan Van Gundy. New Orleans’ starting five logged-in 162:01 combined minutes last night — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when their starting five combined to play at least 160 minutes the previous day. The Pelicans have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two of their last three games. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the points spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when laying the points. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Southwest Division Game of the Year with the Memphis Grizzlies (553) plus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-21 |
Mississippi State +3 v. South Carolina |
Top |
75-59 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (671) plus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (672). THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (10-9) has lost four of their last five games after their 61-45 loss at Arkansas on Tuesday as a 7.5-point underdog. South Carolina (5-6) has won two of their last three games with their 72-66 upset win at Florida as an 8.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State made only 30.6% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 18 games going back to their opening game of the season on November 25th. Head coach Ben Howland’s team should respond with a strong effort this afternoon — they are 39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 games after a straight-up loss including covering the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after a loss. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by at least 15 points. Additionally, Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. And in their last 12 games after a loss to an SEC opponent, the Bulldogs have responded to cover the point spread 10 times. Howland’s team plays consistently well on the defensive end of the court — they have held their last three opponents to just 37.0% or worse shooting. They have held their last five opponents to just 39.9% shooting which has resulted in only 63.6 PPG. This strong defense travels — Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Their game with the Razorbacks finished well below the 144 point total — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not scoring more than 60 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 55 points. Mississippi State should get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities — they rank 6th in the nation by pulling down 36.8% of their missed shots. The Gamecocks are vulnerable in this area as they rank 11th in the SEC with a 33.2% defensive rebounding rate — and they allow their opponents to pull down 30.7% of their misses overall which is 264th in the nation. South Carolina may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they have played only four times this season — and they make only 42.2% of their shots at home. The Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 48 home games with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range — including four of these last six situations. And in their last 47 home games when favored by 3 points or less, South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread 31 times.
FINAL TAKE: Head coach Frank Martin’s team also likes to crash the glass — they are 11th in the nation in offensive rebounding rate. But the Bulldogs are a better defensive rebounding team that limits their opponents to just 26.2% second-chance opportunities. Mississippi State out-rebounds their opponents by +7.7 RPG — and South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against opponents with a +7.0 or better RPG clip. 25* CBB SEC Underdog of the Year with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (671) plus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-05-21 |
Wizards v. Heat -6.5 |
Top |
95-122 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (524) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (523). THE SITUATION: Miami (7-14) has lost two straight games as well as seven of their last eight with their 103-100 upset loss at home to Washington on Wednesday as a 9-point favorite. Washington (5-13) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: It has been a disastrous start to the season for the Heat who have been hit as hard as any team in the league by injuries and COVID quarantined absences. Yet head coach Erik Spoelstra’s team is slowly getting close to 100% again. Tyler Herro played his first game since returning from quarantine on Wednesday. Jimmy Butler played his third game that night after missing ten games from quarantine. Herro scored 20 points with Butler adding 19 points — so they are getting back to playing-shape again. Miami will be without Avery Bradley and Maurice Harkless still who are still injured. Bam Adebayo has been the lone bright spot for this team this season as he continued to develop his game into becoming one of the best big men in the NBA. Perhaps the Heat were due to take a step back after their surprising run to the NBA Finals in the bubble last fall. But they are a much better team than this — and it is time for this club to get back to their winning ways as they make a run to make the playoffs now that they are getting their players back. This is Miami’s final game in a six-game homestand so getting a victory tonight will be important for morale moving forward. The Heat made only 43.4% of their shots on Wednesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. But this remains a team that has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset loss to an NBA Southeast Division rival. That loss to the Wizards came on the heels of them getting upset on Monday at home to Charlotte — but Miami has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after suffering two straight upset losses. Additionally, the Heat have covered the pint spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a loss to a divisional rival. And they have not only covered the point spread in 29 of their last 45 games after a straight-up loss but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. Washington may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after an upset win as a road underdog. The Wizards have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a victory against a Southeast Division opponent. Washington is also just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread victory. The Wizards get Russell Westbrook back tonight after he was rested on Wednesday — but they are not likely to replicate the 40.5% shooting effort from 3-point land again tonight even with Westbrook back. Washington simply does not have a good supporting cast for Westbrook and Bradley Beal especially after Thomas Bryant suffered a season-ending ACL injury. Raul Neto has been downgraded to out tonight with a groin. The Wizards are second-to-last in Defensive Efficiency. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they are just 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 road games against teams with a losing record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has only won two of their seven games since their two-week hiatus because of their COVID outbreak. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Look for Miami to rebound with a strong effort. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Southeast Division Game of the Year with the Miami Heat (524) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (523). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-03-21 |
East Tennessee State +2.5 v. Mercer |
Top |
70-64 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the East Tennessee State Buccaneers (677) plus the points versus the Mercer Bears (678). THE SITUATION: East Tennessee State (9-6) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 67-62 loss at Wofford as a 2-point underdog. Mercer (10-6) has lost their last two games after their 72-69 loss at Wofford on Saturday as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: East Tennessee State should bounce-back with a strong effort. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. East Tennessee State has also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games on the road after a loss to a conference rival. They allowed Wofford to make 51% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort of the season. Yet the Buccaneers allowed The Citadel to shoot 53.8% from the field in their previous game which was their worst defensive effort — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. East Tennessee State has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after winning at least three of their last four games. The stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in the 140s. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their home games. Mercer has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread cover where they lost the game as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games after a straight-up loss. The Bears return home where they are 6-1 this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on their home court. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Mercer has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored. East Tennessee State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Southern Conference Underdog of the Year with the East Tennessee State Buccaneers (677) plus the points versus the Mercer Bears (678). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-31-21 |
Jazz v. Nuggets +1.5 |
Top |
117-128 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 3:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (518) plus the point(s) versus the Utah Jazz (517). THE SITUATION: Denver (11-8) had their five-game winning streak snapped on Friday with their 119-109 upset loss at San Antonio as a 4-point favorite. Utah (15-4) has won and covered the point spread in eleven straight games after their 120-101 victory at home against Dallas as a 4-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS PLUS THE POINT(S): After a 1-4 start to the season, Denver has been quite good by winning ten of their next fourteen games. They went into the 4th quarter in San Antonio with a lead before collapsing in those final 12 minutes. It would have been quite an accomplishment to sweep that five-game road trip. Now the Nuggets return home for the first time since January 19th — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. Denver allowed the Spurs to make 54.3% of their shots from the field which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. Defensive has been the Achilles’ heel for this team under head coach Michael Malone — but they have been a top-ten unit in defensive efficiency since their 1-4 start. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in five of their last six games (and six of their last eight) — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Nikola Jokic has been a double-double machine with nineteen straight games with at least 10 points and 10 rebounds. Garry Harris has stepped up with a 46.5% shooting clip from 3-point range over his last nine games. Denver has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the total set in the 210s. Utah held the struggling Mavericks to just 43.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. The Jazz now go back on the road after playing their last six games at home. Seven of their last games during their winning streak were at home — and two of those four road games were at lowly Detroit and Cleveland. Utah is just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. The Jazz are also banged up with Donovan Mitchell and Derrick Favors missing the last two games with a concussion and back issues. Head coach Quin Snyder has received some good efforts from role players stepping up — but the challenge rises playing on the road against a perennial Western Conference playoff team.
FINAL TAKE: Denver will have revenge on their minds after losing at home to Utah by a 109-105 score as a 1.5-point home underdog on January 17th — and the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss at home. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with the Denver Nuggets (518) plus the point(s) versus the Utah Jazz (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-21 |
Pistons v. Warriors -4.5 |
Top |
91-118 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (514) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (513). THE SITUATION: Golden State (10-9) has lost three of their last five games after their 114-93 loss at Phoenix as a 4.5-point underdog on Thursday. Detroit (5-14) has won two of their last three games with their 107-92 upset victory against the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday as a 7-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: The Pistons held the Lakers to just 40.9% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Detroit caught LA coasting on a long road trip — but not it is them who went on the road in the first game of a five-game west coast swing. The Pistons are due for a letdown — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset win as a home underdog getting at least 6 points. Detroit is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a double-digit win — and they are just 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 games after a straight-up victory. They go back on the road where they are just 1-7 this season with an average losing margin of -6.5 PPG. The Pistons are allowing their home hosts to shoot 50.7% from the field which is translating into 119.0 PPG. Detroit is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games — and they are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Pistons have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 road games against a team with the Total set at 220 or higher. Golden State made only 38.4% of their shots on Thursday which was tied for the worst shooting effort in their last 17 games. The Warriors have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing with one day of rest. Golden State returns home where they are 7-4 while scoring 115.2 PPG and making 46.7% of their shots — and they play much better defense at home where they limit their guests to 42.4% shooting. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. Golden State has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games this season with the total set at 220 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Detroit may have the worst roster in the league but they play hard almost every night. But this is a point spread around 5 points — and the Warriors have taken care of business against the bottom of the league as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less. Golden State won in Detroit on December 29th by a 116-106 score — and the Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games when avenging a loss at home. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Golden State Warriors (514) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-29-21 |
Manhattan v. St. Peter's -8 |
Top |
55-59 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (870) minus the points versus the Manhattan Jaspers (869). THE SITUATION: Saint Peter’s (7-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 47-40 loss at Siena on Saturday as a 4-point underdog. Manhattan (5-4) has won three straight games in a row — all upset victories — after their 58-55 win against Niagara as a 1.5-point underdog back on January 16th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PEACOCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Saint Peter’s made only 26.8% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage for them all season. They only scored 18 points in the first half as well — but they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. The Peacocks have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 43 games after not making more than 33% of their shots in their last game. They also made only 4 of their 8 free throws in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not making more than 53% of their free throws in their last game. Shooting the basketball is not the strength of head coach Shaheen Holloway’s team. But he has his group ferocious defense — Saint Peter’s ranks fifth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 41.2% shooting inside the arc. The Peacocks’ also force turnovers in 22.1% of their opponent’s possessions which is 40th in the country. The Jaspers are loose with the basketball — they turn the ball over in 22.0% of their possessions, 304th in the nation. Saint Peter’s should get plenty of easy scoring chances tonight. They should play better as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing three of their last four games. Now after playing their last seven games on the road, they return home for just the fourth time all season. The Peacocks are 3-0 on their home court while holding their guests to just 36.9% shooting and only 57.0 PPG. Saint Peter’s has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home when favored. Manhattan will likely be rusty having not played in two weeks — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after not playing for at least seven days. The Jaspers made 41.7% of their shots in that game which was the shooting effort in their last seven contests. Manhattan has won four of their last five games with two straight upset wins against Niagara precedent by an upset victory against Quinnipiac — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after playing their last two at home as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after pulling off upsets in two straight games as a home dog. Now they go back on the road for just the fourth time this season. In their three road games, they have made only 32.8% of their shots. The Jaspers rank just 347th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Manhattan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Jaspers have not played much of a schedule yet this season — Niagara was the best team they have played so far this season with them ranking 237th in the nation according to the metrics by Ken Pomeroy. Manhattan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Saint Peter’s ranks 164th by Pomeroy. Holloway deploys a deep bench that has ten players who average more than 10 minutes-per-game. The Peacocks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a losing record. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Game of the Month with the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (870) minus the points versus the Manhattan Jaspers (869). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-21 |
Creighton v. Seton Hall +2 |
Top |
85-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Seton Hall Pirates (670) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (669). THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (9-6) has lost two of their last three games with their 76074 loss at Villanova as a 9-point underdog last Tuesday. Creighton (11-4) snapped a two-game losing streak on Saturday in their 74-66 win against UConn as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE POINTS: The Pirates have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. And while their game with the Wildcats flew Over the 140 point total, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Seton Hall returns home where they are 5-1 with an average winning margin of +13.3 PPG. They are scoring 77.3 PPG at home while making 47.6% of their shots. They are also holding their opponents to just 39.9% shooting on their home court. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set at 145 to 149.5. Additionally, Seton Hall has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when getting the points. The Pirates have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Creighton has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games are a win against a conference rival. And with their contest against the Huskies going Over the 135.5 point total, the Bluejays have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Now Creighton goes back on the road where they are 3-2 this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored by up to 4 points. The Bluejays have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Seton Hall is looking to avenge an 89-53 loss to Creighton on January 6th. The Bluejays nailed 59.6% of their shots in that game including making 13 of their 24 shots from downtown. But Creighton played at home in that game where they make 37.1% of their 3-pointers while ranking 7th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Yet the Bluejays make only 34.9% of their 3-pointers away from home, 109th in the nation, while dropping to 55th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Wednesday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Seton Hall Pirates (670) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (669). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-26-21 |
Butler v. Connecticut -5 |
Top |
51-63 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (634) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (633). THE SITUATION: UConn (7-3) has lost two games in a row with their 74-66 loss at Creighton on Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog. Butler (5-7) has won two straight games after they upset DePaul on the road last Tuesday as a 2-point underdog by a 67-53 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: UConn lost their previous game to St. John’s on January 18th before the loss to the Bluejays — and they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two in a two to Big East opponents. The Huskies have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games when playing just their second game in eight days. Head coach Dan Hurley’s team may have played their worst game of the season Saturday. They made only 36.5% of their shots which was their lowest shooting percentage in their last six games. They also allowed Creighton to make 51.1% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort in the last nine games. UConn has not covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in their previous two games. They return home where they are scoring 79.4 PPG — and they are limiting their guests to just 41.9% shooting from the field. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored — and they are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. Butler did play their best game of the season against the Blue Demons — their 50.0% field goal percentage was a season-high and their 33.3% opponent’s field goal percentage was a season-best as well. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in their last two games after they upset Creighton by a 70-66 score as a 7-point underdog in their previous game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. They stay on the road where they are 1-5 with an average losing margin of -8.2 PPG. They allow their home hosts to make 47.1% of their shots. Butler has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after playing a game on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 6 point range. Additionally, the Bulldogs are just 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Butler will be looking to avenge a 72-60 loss at home to UConn on January 9th as a 1.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 51 when attempting to avenge a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Tuesday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Connecticut Huskies (634) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (633). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-25-21 |
Celtics v. Bulls +4.5 |
Top |
119-103 |
Loss |
-113 |
5 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (516) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (515). THE SITUATION: Chicago (7-9) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 101-90 loss at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 9.5-point underdog. Boston (9-6) ended their three-game losing streak yesterday with their 141-103 thrashing of Cleveland at home as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago shot only 39.3% from the field against the Lakers which their lowest field goal percentage in their last 14 games — and their 90 points scored was a season-low. The Bulls should respond with a big effort as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread defeat. And in their last 9 games playing with one day of rest, the Bulls have covered the point spread in all 9 games. Chicago is starting to find a rhythm under first-year head coach Billy Donovan. They had averaged 121.7 PPG in their three-game winning streak. They are making 47.5% of their shots in the Donovan offense — and they rank 9th in Offensive Efficiency in the league over their last ten games. They will be without Wendell Carter who is doubtful with a thigh injury while Otto Porter may get the night off for rest. But they will have Zach LaVine who is thriving under Donovan’s system by scoring 26.8 PPG — and second-year pro Coby White is developing into a nice compliment. There is a good vibe with this team who is becoming competitive every night. The Bulls have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games as an underdog. Boston made 55.9% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games — and the 40% field goal percentage they limited the Cavaliers to was tied for a season-low for them so far this season. Yet the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. This Boston team has been uninspiring this season — they rank just 17th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. They lost an important piece in the offseason with Gordon Hayward signing with Charlotte. They added Tristan Thompson — but he has been a disappointment and may be past his prime. Rookie Payton Pritchard has been a nice surprise to how quickly he has acclimated to the NBA — but he is out with a knee injury. Romeo Langford is also questionable with a knee. Head coach Brad Stevens does expect Jayson Tatum to return to the court after COVID quarantine — and who knows if he will have rust. But Stevens is using his return to give Kemba Walker the night off — and he is a vital piece to the equation in their Big Three since his 3-point shooting makes things easier for Tatum and Jaylon Brown. The Celtics go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Bulls have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games in expected high-scoring games with the total set at 220 or higher — and the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Over/Under at 220 or higher. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Underdog of the Month with the Chicago Bulls (516) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-21 |
UC-Santa Barbara v. CS-Northridge +12 |
Top |
80-66 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the CS-Northridge Matadors (756) plus the points versus the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (755). THE SITUATION: CS-Northridge (5-5) looks to bounce-back from an embarrassing 105-58 loss home to the Gauchos yesterday as a 9.5-point underdog. UC-Santa Barbara (8-3) has won five games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MATADORS PLUS THE POINTS: I almost pulled the trigger on CS-Northridge yesterday but could not get confirmation on the status of their leading scorer, T.J. Starks, who is listed as questionable after not playing in their previous game at CS-Fullerton which ended in a 85-77 loss last Sunday. Thankfully, we avoided that train wreck as the Matadors (not Mustangs, Frank) allowed UC-Santa Barbara to make 60.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. CS-Northridge also only made 36.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. But the silver lining is that Starks returned to action and scored 29 points. The Texas A&M transfer just needs help tonight — and look for head coach Mike Gottfried to coax a much better effort from his team. The Matadors have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, CS-Northridge has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a home loss to a Big West opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Matadors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. CS-Northridge has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. UC-Santa Barbara enjoyed their best shooting night of the season with that 60.9% clip. And by holding the Matadors to 36.7% shooting, that was the Gauchos’ second-best defensive effort in their last nine games. But UC-Santa Barbara has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win on the road. The Gauchos have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 95 points in their last game. UC-Santa Barbara has still failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road (with last night being the exception) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games when laying 9.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: CS-Northridge has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games when avenging a loss by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. 25* CBB Big West Underdog of the Month with the CS-Northridge Matadors (756) plus the points versus the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (755). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-21 |
Eastern Washington -4 v. Northern Colorado |
Top |
82-76 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
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At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Eastern Washington Eagles (633) minus the points versus Northern Colorado Bears (634). THE SITUATION: Eastern Washington (3-6) has lost two games in a row after their 78-76 upset loss at Northern Colorado on Thursday as a 2.5-point favorite. Northern Colorado (8-6) has won three games in a row after that victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Eastern Washington should avenge that upset loss this afternoon. The Eagles are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Eastern Washington has also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when playing with one day of rest — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road playing their second game in three days. This will be an ornery group after suffering two straight upset losses after getting upset against Southern Utah last Saturday by a 99-94 score as a 5-point favorite. The Eagles are the reigning Big Sky champions who have two of the best players in the conference in Kim Aiken and preseason conference MVP Jacob Davison. This team embraced a very challenging non-conference schedule to begin the season with 3-point losses to Arizona and Washington State along with a 5-point loss to Saint Mary’s. But this team needs a conference win now. They allowed the Bears to make 46% of their shots which was the second-worst defensive effort of the season — after allowing Southern Utah to make 56.1% of their shots last Saturday — so a better defensive effort is likely. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row to Big Sky rivals. Eastern Washington has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after upsetting a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 after an upset win at home. And while the Bears have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. They host this game again but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. Northern Colorado has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: Eastern Washington has covered the point spread in 37 of their last 57 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when motivated by same-season revenge. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Game of the Month with the Eastern Washington Eagles (633) minus the points versus Northern Colorado Bears (634). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-22-21 |
Mavs v. Spurs +3 |
Top |
122-117 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 6 m |
Show
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At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (546) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (545). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (8-7) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in their 121-99 loss at Golden State as a 1-point underdog. Dallas (7-7) ended their three-game losing streak on Wednesday in their 124-112 victory at Indiana as a 2-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio may be coming off their worst game of the season. They shot only 37.2% from the field which was their lowest field goal percentage of the year. They also allowed the Warriors to nail 50.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. The Spurs have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, San Antonio has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss. The Spurs have played four of their seven losses within 7 points — they are playing close games in their defeats. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games as an underdog getting up to 6 points. Dallas made 52.6% of their shots on Wednesday which was not only their best shooting effort of the season but the first time all year where they made at least 50% of their shots. They also held the Pacers to just 44.6% of their shots in what was the best defensive effort in their last four games. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a win on the road by double-digits. Dallas does have Kristaps Porzingis back on the court after he was out to begin the season — he scored 27 points while adding 12 rebounds on Wednesday. But head coach Rick Carlisle is still dealing with a depleted roster given COVID protocols. The team will once again be without Josh Richardson, Maxi Kleber, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Dwight Powell tonight as they remain in quarantine. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: San Antonio has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 home games when listed in that +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month with the San Antonio Spurs (546) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (545). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-19-21 |
Ball State v. Miami-OH +3.5 |
Top |
71-81 |
Win
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100 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (610) plus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (609). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (4-4) looks to rebound from their 78-61 loss at Ohio last Tuesday as a 9-point underdog. Ball State (6-5) has won their last two games after their 78-58 win against Northern Illinois on Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami allowed the Bobcats to make 57.4% of their shots last week which was their worst defensive mark of the season. The RedHawks made only 40.4% of their shots as well which was their lowest shooting percentage in their last three contests. Now having lost three of their last four games, this is a crucial game for head coach Jack Owens who is running out of time in his fourth year coaching the program. He has seen his team cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a double-digit loss to a Mid-American Conference rival. And while Miami has played their last two games Under the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after playing at least two straight Unders. Returning home will help where the RedHawks are 4-1 this season. Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 130s. They are also 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games as an underdog. This team leads the MAC in protecting their defensive glass as opponents only rebound 25.0% of their missed shots. The Redhawks also force turnovers in 21.1% of their conference opponent’s possessions which is also best in the MAC. The Cardinals can struggle in this area as they are turning the ball over in 18.6% of their possessions, 6th conference play. Ball State held the Huskies to just a 34.9% shooting mark on Saturday which was their best defensive performance of the season. But the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning two in a row against conference opponents. And while Ball State has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. Now this goes back on the road where they are just 3-4 this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Cardinals have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 road games when favored by 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Look for this to be a close game with the RedHawks in a position to win. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Underdog of the Month with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (610) plus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (609). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-18-21 |
Suns -3 v. Grizzlies |
Top |
104-108 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
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At 5:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (559) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (560). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (7-4) takes the court again for the first time since January 11th when they were upset at Washington by a 128-107 score as a 6-point favorite. Memphis (6-6) comes off a 106-104 win against Philadelphia as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix has not played in the last seven days because of the COVID outbreak in the Wizards’ organization which forced them to quarantine after exposure to their players in that game. This Suns team should be anxious to get the bad taste out of their mouth of what was probably their worst game of the season. They allowed Washington to make 52.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort so far in this campaign. They only made 44.8% of their shots which was their lowest field goal percentage in their last seven games. Yet Phoenix has covered the point spread in 7 straight games after an upset loss on the road where they were favored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset loss by at least 20 points as a road favorite. The Suns went from a talented upstart that went 8-0 in the bubble this summer to a legitimate threat in the Western Conference with the veteran Chris Paul guiding the emerging stars in Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, and DeAndre Ayton. Second-year head coach Monty Williams is also getting valuable contributions from his bench from players like Cameron Johnson. Phoenix ranks sixth in the NBA in their net efficiency rating. They have scored at least 105 points in nine straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games on the road after scoring at least 105 points in four straight games. The Suns have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road. Phoenix has also coved the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not playing more than three games in the last ten days. Memphis has won four straight games with their victory against the 76ers. They go Ja Morant in that game with their second-year superstar scoring 17 points with six assists. The Grizzlies did get out-rebounded by 15 rebounds in that game. This team misses Jaren Jackson and Justise Winslow who are both out with injuries — and they will be without Jonas Valuncianas for this game who is out due to COVID quarantining protocols. Ayton may be poised for a big night against what is left of the Memphis frontcourt. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after being outrebounded by at least 15 boards in their last game. Memphis has a great head coach in Taylor Jenkins who gets the most out of his talent. But the problem Jenkins faces is when his group goes against the top rosters in the league where the consistent effort from his players is not enough — and that is made even worse with all the players out for this one. The Grizzlies are playing their fourth game in ten days — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games when playing no more than their fourth game in ten days. Memphis is only 2-5 at home this season with an average losing margin of -5.0 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games. And while the Grizzlies launch 31 shots from 3-point land per game, the Suns have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams who attempt at least 18 shots from 3-point land per game.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix is missing some bench pieces for this one with Dario Saric and Jalen Smith out still because of quarantine protocols — but they have their starting five intact. The Suns have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored. 25* NBA TNT Game of the Month with the Phoenix Suns (559) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-16-21 |
Michigan v. Minnesota +6 |
Top |
57-75 |
Win
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100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
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At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Minnesota Golden Gophers (645) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (646). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-4) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four after their 86-71 loss at Iowa as an 11.5-point underdog back last Sunday. Michigan (11-0) remained undefeated on Tuesday with their 77-54 thrashing of Wisconsin at home in Ann Arbor as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN GOPHERS PLUS THE POINTS: We had the Badgers on Tuesday but the Wolverines were on fire with a 51.6% field goal percentage in that game. Michigan also held Wisconsin to just a 30.8% field goal percentage which was their best defensive effort of the season. I thought the Wolverines were underrated to begin the season — and I continue to think that second-year head coach Juwan Howard is underappreciated. The Michigan alum is getting every ounce of talent out of his roster — just wait for when the five-star recruits start coming to Ann Arbor next fall. But this is not the most talented group of players in the Big Ten (or the State of Michigan). They have benefited from a soft early schedule where their 82-57 victory against these Golden Gophers at Crisler Arena on January 6th was their highest-profile victory before their win against the Badgers. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in five straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in five straight games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Now Michigan goes on the road for just the third time this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. The Wolverines went to the free-throw line only four times on Tuesday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not attempting more than seven free throws in their last game. Minnesota is 30th in the nation with a free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 41.5%. They average 26 free throw attempts per game — and Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games against teams who average at least 25 free throws per game. The Golden Gophers should respond with a big effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, Minnesota has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after a point spread loss. The Golden Gophers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a double-digit loss. Minnesota returns home where they are 10-0 with an average winning margin of +14.8 PPG. Not only do the Gophers score 85.5 PPG on their home court but they hold their guests to just a 37.8% field goal percentage — so expect the Wolverines to struggle to make baskets with the unique sightlines at Williams Arena. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home with the Total set in the 145.5 to 149.5 point range. The Gophers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games getting the points — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan is outscoring their opponents by +16.2 PPG — but Minnesota has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +8 PPG. The Golden Gophers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when avenging a loss where they gave up at least 75 points. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (645) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-13-21 |
Auburn v. Georgia +2 |
Top |
95-77 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET Wednesday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (682) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Auburn Tigers (681). THE SITUATION: Georgia (7-3) has their last three games after falling to Arkansas on Saturday by a 99-69 score as a 5.5-point underdog. Auburn (6-6) has lost four games in a row with their 94-90 loss against Alabama on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The Bulldogs allowed the Razorbacks to make 52.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. Head coach Mike Crean was not happy with the effort of his team in that 30-point loss — so expect a more spirited effort with his team looking to win their first SEC game of the season. Georgia has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 30 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. Georgia returns home where they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games after losing at least three games in a row. They are 7-1 in Athens this season with an average winning margin of +13.1 net PPG. Crean’s team should play much better on defense as they limit their guests to just 40.7% shooting and 67.0 PPG. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Georgia should score plenty of easy baskets inside against the Tigers — they are 61st in the nation with a 53.9% shooting percentage inside the arc. Auburn allows their opponents to make 52.3% of their 2-pointers which is 242nd in the country. The Bulldogs also pull down 35.6% of their missed shots which is 20th in the nation. The Tigers have been bet into a small favorite as I write this — the likely logic is that their getting freshman Sharife Cooper eligible is a game-changer for this team. The 6’1 guard scored 26 points while adding 9 assists against the Crimson Tide. Yet the laptops still project the Bulldogs to win this game even with Cooper back in the mix. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They also have failed to cover the point spewed in 6 straight games after allowing at least 85 points. Auburn goes back on the road where they are 2-4 while making only 39.8% of their shots. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games away from home with the Total set in the 155 to 159.5 point range. Auburn has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog including 6 of their last 8 games at home as a dog. The Tigers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 25* CBB SEC Underdog of the Month with the Georgia Bulldogs (682) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Auburn Tigers (681). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-08-21 |
Arkansas-Little Rock v. UL - Lafayette +3 |
Top |
64-66 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 47 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (848) plus the point(s) versus the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (847). THE SITUATION: UL-Louisiana (7-2) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 71-59 upset loss at home to Texas State as a 2.5-point favorite. Little Rock (6-3) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 75-62 win against UT-Arlington on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINT(S): Lafayette might have played their worst game of the season last Saturday. They made only 34.6% of their shots which was the second-lowest mark all season. They also allowed the Bobcats to hit 60% of their baskets which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have given up this year. The Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing their last opponent to shoot at least 60% from the field. Lafayette has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a game where they did not shoot better than 38% while allowing their opponent to nail at least 60% of their shots. The Ragin’ Cajuns have also bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss. Lafayette has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after getting upset by double-digits as a home favorite. They stay at home where they are 6-1 with an average winning margin of +6.4 PPG. They hold their opponents to just 40.8% shooting which is resulting in 68.6 PPG. The Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games at home with the Total set in the 150s. Lafayette does a good job of forcing turnovers — their opponents are coughing it up in 20.6% of their possessions which is 81st in the nation. This is a significant area of concern for the Trojans — they are 325th in the nation by turning the ball over in 24.7% of their possessions. Little Rock exposed a vulnerable Mavericks’ defense in their two-game swing last week. They made a whopping 70% of their shots against UT-Arlington in the opener before making 56.1% of their shots on Saturday in what was their best two shooting efforts of the season. And by holding the Mavericks to just 31.8% shooting, the Trojans played their best defensive game of the season. But the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning at least two straight games in a row at home. And while Little Rock has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after covering their last two games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with five or six days of rest. They go back on the road where they are just 1-3 this season while allowing their opponents to make 46.1% of their shots which is resulting in 77.0 PPG. The Trojans are 19th in the nation by making 39.4% of their 3-pointers — but that mark plummets to a 32.1% clip when playing away from their home court this season. Little Rock has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road with the total in the 150-154.5 point range. To compound matters, the Trojans may be without their best player in Markquis Nowell who is listed as doubtful with an undisclosed issue. He leads the team with a 17.0 PPG average while adding 8.9 Assists-Per-Game and 4.7 Rebounds-Per-Game.
FINAL TAKE: Little Rock is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and the Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Underdog of the Month with the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (848) plus the point(s) versus the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (847). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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