02-04-23 |
Gonzaga v. St. Mary's -2.5 |
Top |
70-78 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Saint Mary’s Gaels (822) minus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (821). THE SITUATION: Saint Mary’s (19-4) is on a ten-game winning streak after their 68-59 victory against San Francisco as a 12-point favorite on Thursday. Gonzaga (19-4) has won three in a row after their 88-70 victory against Santa Clara as a 13-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GAELS MINUS THE POINTS: Saint Mary’s only shot 32.7% from the field two days ago which was the worst shooting effort for them this season. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. This is their second game since last Saturday — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing for the second time in the last seven days. They stay at home where they make 46.8% of their shots while ranking 29th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But it is on the other end of the court where head coach Randy Bennett’s team thrives. The Gaels rank 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their stout defense helps them rank as the 4th best team in the nation when playing on their home court. They have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after not allowing more than 65 points in their last game. Saint Mary’s does not allow many second-chance scoring opportunities either — they lead the nation by holding their guests to rebounding only 17.7% of their missed shots when playing at home. They held the Dons to just six offensive rebounds on Thursday — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than five offensive rebounds in their last game. Gonzaga comes off one of their best games of the season in their 18-point win against the Broncos. They nailed 59.3% of their shots in what was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. And they held Santa Clara to 40.0% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last nine contests. But the Bulldogs are 6-17-3 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win on the road. They are also just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win and point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning three of their last four games. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% at home. Head coach Mark Few’s teams have some glaring weaknesses when compared to some of his recent teams. They are too dependent on scoring inside the arc since they only take 33.0% of their shots from outside the arc, the 291st lowest rate in the nation. And while they do make 57.5% of their shots inside the arc, that clip lowers to 54.3% when they are playing on the road. Now they face this Gaels’ defense that holds their opponents to just 43.5% shooting inside the arc, ranking 10th in the nation. Additionally, this is Few’s worst statistical defense at Gonzaga since the 2007-08 campaign with this group ranking 80th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. When playing on the road, their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency ranking plummets to 201st in the nation with the problem being that their opponents enjoy an effective field goal percentage of 56.3%, ranking 327th in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: Saint Mary’s beat Gonzaga by 10 points on their home court last season — but they will be looking to avenge their 82-69 loss to the Bulldogs in the West Coast Conference tournament on March 8th. Gonzaga is just 6-18-3 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Game of the Year with the Saint Mary’s Gaels (822) minus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (821). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-28-23 |
Auburn +4 v. West Virginia |
Top |
77-80 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (601) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (602). THE SITUATION: Auburn (16-4) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 79-63 upset loss to Texas A&M as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. West Virginia (12-8) has won two of their last three games after their 76-61 upset win at Texas Tech as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: This Big 12/SEC Challenge matchup features two teams with similar profiles. Both of these teams are tough to score on in the half-court while forcing turnovers and crashing the offensive glass. These two teams also foul too much and are not great shooting teams. Auburn should be motivated to earn a high-profile non-conference win after their flat effort against the Aggies. They only made 42.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They also allowed Texas A&M to nail 47.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 contests. The Tigers are an outstanding defensive team that ranks 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to just a 43.1% effective field goal percentage, ranking 5th in the nation, led by their perimeter defense. They hold their opponents to just a 25.7% mark from behind the arc, ranking 2nd best in the country. They should play better this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. And while they went into halftime trailing by a 45-30 score to the Aggies on Wednesday, they have then covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after trailing by 15 or more points at halftime in their previous game. They go back on the road where they rank 24th in the nation by making 55.2% of their shots inside the arc. And while Auburn ranks 18th in the nation by pulling down 35.3% of their missed shots, they are even more aggressive on the boards when playing on the road where they rebound 37.3% of their misses, ranking 8th best in the nation. The Mountaineers are vulnerable in this regard as they allow their opponents to pull down 28.2% of their missed shots, ranking 168th in the nation. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. And while they have still covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. West Virginia is better than their record — they endured a six-game losing streak in the brutal Big 12 grind which included an overtime loss at Kansas State, a five-point loss at home to Baylor, and a one-point loss at Oklahoma. They played their best defensive game in their last eight contests by holding the Red Raiders to just 38.9% shooting on Wednesday. But the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset victory by 15 or more points. West Virginia gets this game at home in Morgantown — but while they rank 21st in the nation according to one of the advanced analytical systems I track, their ranking when using those metrics when evaluating home court advantages drops to 44th in the nation. The Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 home games with the Total set in the 140s.
FINAL TAKE: West Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Auburn has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games played in January. 25* CBB Big 12/SEC Challenge Game of the Year with the Auburn Tigers (601) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (602). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-23 |
Buffalo v. Kent State -10 |
Top |
68-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Kent State Golden Flashes (888) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (887). THE SITUATION: Kent State (16-4) had their ten-game winning streak snapped with an 86-76 loss at Northern Illinois as a 13-point favorite on Tuesday. Buffalo (9-10) has won two of their last three games after their 91-65 upset victory at Ball State as a 6-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN FLASHES MINUS THE POINTS: Kent State allowed the Huskies to make 51.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them this season. The Golden Flashes are a very good team that only lost by five points at Houston earlier this season. They rank 24th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. They return home where they are 9-0 with a +21.6 net point differential. They hold their guests to just 38.3% shooting which translates into just 63.4 Points-Per-Game. They are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games at home — and they are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. Kent State should blow out the Bulls due to their ability to force turnovers. The Golden Flashes rank 14th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.7% of their opponent’s possessions — and Buffalo turns the ball over in 19.8% of their possessions, ranking 261st in the nation. The Bulls nailed 59.7% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. They also held the Cardinals to just 40.0% shooting — but here come the Regression Gods as Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a game where they nailed at least 57% of their shots while holding their opponent to no better than 43% shooting. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. The Bulls stay on the road where they are only 2-8 while allowing their home hosts to make 46.5% of their shots which results in 81.7 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Buffalo only makes 62.8% of their free throws in Mid-American Conference play — the lowest mark in the conference. As a double-digit dog, the Bulls need every point they can muster — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games on the road getting 9.5 to 12 points. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Kent State Golden Flashes (888) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (887). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-23 |
Cavs v. Thunder -1 |
Top |
100-112 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (520) minus the point(s) versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (519). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (23-25) has lost two of their last three games after a 137-133 loss to Atlanta as a 1.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Cleveland (30-20) has won two of their last three games after their 113-95 win at Houston as a 9-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINT(S): Oklahoma City allowed the Hawks to make 59.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. But the Thunder have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing 125 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 125 or more points in their last contest. And they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games when playing their second game in five days. While Oklahoma City was considered one of the many teams who would tank the season to help their chances of winning the NBA draft lottery to then select the phenom Victor Wembanyama, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been simply too good leading this team. In their last 13 games, the Thunder rank 3rd in the NBA in Net Rating. They have a 14-10 record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on their home court. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They are also 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Cleveland had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in four of their last six games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Cleveland completes a three-game road trip that started on Tuesday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games when playing their third game on the road in five days. They are just 10-15 on the road — and they are 5-13-2 ATS in their last 20 games on the road. They are also 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting up to six points. The Cavaliers finish their road trip undermanned with Ricky Rubio taking the night off for load management and Kevin Love being out with a back injury. Donovan Mitchell is also listed as doubtful with a groin.
FINAL TAKE: The Thunder will be looking to avenge a 110-102 loss at Cleveland on December 10th — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. 25* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Oklahoma City Thunder (520) minus the point(s) versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-25-23 |
Army +3.5 v. American |
Top |
61-63 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (1521) plus the points versus the American Eagles (1522). THE SITUATION: Army (11-10) has lost two games in a row after their 77-71 upset loss to Navy as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. American (12-7) has lost four games in a row after their 62-61 loss at Colgate as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Army is one of the best shooting teams in the nation — they rank 11th in the country with an effective field goal percentage of 55.9%. They actually are even more effective at shooting the basketball when they are playing on the road in hostile environments. When playing in another opponent’s gyms, the Black Knights rank 2nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 58.9%. They rank 39.3% of their 3-pointers in true road games, ranking 18th in the nation, and they are making 58.9% of their shots inside the arc in their eighth true road games, ranking 5th in the nation. American does not play great defense on their home court — they rank 239th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 50.4% when playing at home and both of their opponent 3-point and 2-point field goal percentage ranks 209th or worse in the nation. Army has a 5-3 record when playing in a hostile environment on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straights on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road with the total set in the 130s. Army also thrives in keeping their opponents off the offensive glass — they rank 27th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding just 24.2% of their missed shots. The Black Knights have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 47 games in January. They are also 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 7 games as an underdog, Army has covered the point spread all 7 times. American has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a loss by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after a loss by three points or less against a Patriot League rival. Additionally, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after a loss on the road by three points or less. Furthermore, American has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing a game where they covered the point spread as the underdog. They return home where they are 5-2 this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 130s. The Eagles have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: American will be looking to avenge a 72-60 loss at Army on November 11th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Patriot League Underdog of the Month with the Army Black Knights (1521) plus the points versus the American Eagles (1522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-24-23 |
Nuggets -1 v. Pelicans |
Top |
99-98 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (549) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (550). THE SITUATION: Denver (33-14) had their nine-game winning streak snapped in a 101-99 upset loss against Oklahoma City as a 5-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (26-21) has lost four games in a row after their 100-96 loss at Miami as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINT(S): Denver gets back Nikola Jokic who has been confirmed to be returning to action tonight after missing the last two games to a hamstring injury. Without Jokic on Sunday against the Thunder, the Nuggets only made 43.9% of their shots which was the lowest shooting effort in their last 32 games. Denver is an elite offensive team — especially with Jokic leading the way — they rank 2nd in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a loss to a Northwest Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival. The Nuggets have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Denver’s play on the other end of the court has been their biggest weakness — but don’t look now but head coach Michael Malone has this group playing the 6th best defense in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last 15 games. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. New Orleans held the Heat to just a 43.7% shooting percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. New Orleans is dealing with their share of injuries as well with both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram on the shelf. The Pelicans have a 7-6 record when playing without both of these players which is a testament to C.J. McCollum's talent and head coach Willie Greene’s commitment to defense. They return home to the Big Easy where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to New Orleans to play the Pelicans. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the Denver Nuggets (549) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-11-23 |
TCU +6.5 v. Texas |
Top |
75-79 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (747) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (748). THE SITUATION: TCU (13-2) had their 11-game winning streak snapped in a 69-67 upset loss to Iowa State as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. Texas (13-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 56-46 win at Oklahoma State as a 3-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS PLUS THE POINTS: TCU allowed the Cyclones to nail 52.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. They should rebound tonight as they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a loss to a Big 12 opponent. They are also 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread loss. Head coach Jamie Dixon has one of the most experienced teams in the nation — they rank 3rd in Division I with 77% of their minutes back from the club that took Arizona to overtime in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The Horned Frogs play with a style that travels well to hostile environments. They rank 19th in the nation by pulling down 35.5% of their missed shots. They rank 16th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.2% of their opponent’s possessions. Not only does this team create extra-scoring possessions, but they also play outstanding defense. TCU ranks 255th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are led by a superb point guard Mike Miles, Jr. who leads the team in scoring, assists, and steals. The Horned Frogs have won all five of their games on the road this season while making 47.0% of their shots. — and they are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games on the road. They are also 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a point spread win including their last four contests after covering the point spread. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games when playing their second game in five days. Interim head coach Rodney Terry is doing a fine job with this team — but the firing of head coach Chris Beard certainly hurts this squad. The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 7 games since Beard was suspended (and later fired when police pressed battery charges against him for what he did to his wife). If there is a flaw to this team, it is that they foul too much — they rank 246th in the nation in opponent free throw rate. Additionally, while Texas ranks 31st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, that mark plummets to 112th in the country in defensive efficiency when playing at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. TCU is 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the TCU Horned Frogs (747) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (748). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-23 |
Tennessee State v. SIU-Edwardsville -6.5 |
Top |
72-81 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the SIU-Edwardsville Cougars (772) minus the points versus the Tennessee State Tigers (771). THE SITUATION: SIU-Edwardsville (10-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 82-73 upset loss to SE Missouri State as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Tennessee State (9-6) has won three of their last four games after a 94-69 victory against Arkansas-Little Rock as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: SIU-Edwardsville allowed SE Missouri State to nail 48.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. They return home where they hold their opponents to just 39.2% shooting which results in only 61.3 Points-Per-Game for their guests. SIU-Edwardsville has a 5-1 record at home with a net point differential of +15.9 net PPG. They have covered 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40% on the road. The Cougars pulled down 32.7% of their missed shots, ranking 67th in the nation. They now face a Tigers team that allows their opponents to rebound 30.4% of their misses, ranking 244th. Tennessee State made 58.9% of their shots in what was a season-high shooting effort for them this season. They nailed 14 of their 25 shots from behind the arc. But the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a game where they hit 13 or more of their 3-pointers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after making 50% or more of their 3-pointers. Additionally, Tennessee State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 90 or more points in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning three of their last four games. They go back on the road for the first time since December 3rd after playing seven straight games at home. They are just 1-4 on the road while getting outscored by -10.0 PPG. They only make 39.2% of their shots on the road and just 28.4% of their 3-pointers which translates into just 62.8 PPG. They are 10-26-1 ATS in their last 37 games on the road — and they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Tennessee State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games after playing three or more straight games at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Cougars are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN News Game of the Month with the SIU-Edwardsville Cougars (772) minus the points versus the Tennessee State Tigers (771). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-22 |
Grizzlies v. Warriors +8 |
Top |
109-123 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (594) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (593). THE SITUATION: Golden State (15-18) has lost two straight games — and five of their last six — after their 143-113 loss at Brooklyn as an 11.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Memphis (20-11) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 125-100 win at Phoenix as a 2.5-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Golden State head coach Steve Kerr called out his team for their bad play after allowing the Nets to make 64.3% of their shots on Wednesday. That was the worst defensive effort for the defending NBA champions all season. The team remains without the injured Stephen Curry — but his absence does not come close to explaining this poor effort against Brooklyn. Klay Thompson got the night off in that game — and he will be back on the court tonight. The Warriors have been inconsistent from night to night — but after that bad effort and with this game on at the prestigious prime-time Christmas Day slot, expect a spirited effort from this proud group even without Curry. Golden State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games at home after a loss by 10 or more points. The extra days off will help — as will returning home after playing their last six games on the road. The Warriors are a disaster on the road where they are just 3-16 — but they have a 12-2 record back on their home court. Granted, Curry’s 45% shooting percentage from behind the arc on their home court plays a role in Golden State’s better play at home, but the team’s young players perform much better in their friendly and familiar confines. The Warriors are 48-23-2 ATS in their last 73 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. And while the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 home games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Memphis finishes up their four-game road trip for this contest. While the Grizzlies have a 13-2 record at home, they are just 7-9 on the road where they are getting outscored by -3.2 Points-Per-Game. They allow their home hosts to shoot 47.0% from the field. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Additionally, the Grizzlies are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games played at Golden State against the Warriors. Even without Curry and the injured Andre Wiggins, the reigning champions should bring their A-Game tonight. 25* NBA Western Conference Underdog of the Month with the Golden State Warriors (594) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (593). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-23-22 |
Blazers +4.5 v. Nuggets |
Top |
107-120 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (575) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (576). THE SITUATION: Portland (17-15) has lost three of their last four games after a 101-98 upset loss at Oklahoma City as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Denver (19-11) has won two straight games and five of their last six contests after their 105-91 win against Memphis as a 1-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: Portland has been upset twice this week in Oklahoma City on Monday and Wednesday — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road playing their third game in five days. The Trail Blazers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 110 points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after playing their last game Under the Total with that game finishing far below the 236-point total. We had the Blazers on Wednesday and recognized they the team had been playing better with star Damian Lillard back from injury. Lillard only scored 16 points on Wednesday — but in his previous seven games this month, Lillard was scoring 32.6 Points-Per-Game. He was leading a scoring attack that is nailing 50.9% of their shots in their last five games which is generating 119.8 PPG before their flat effort against the Thunder — but they were still covering the point spread at the 2:29 minute mark of the fourth quarter. Against fellow Northwest Division opponents, Portland is still making 50.8% of their shots and scoring 120.0 PPG. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting six points or less. Portland has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, the Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. And while the Nuggets raced out to a 55-40 halftime lead against the Grizzlies on Tuesday, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after taking a 15-point or better lead into halftime. Furthermore, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing no more than 105 points in their last contest. Denver continues to struggle with their play on defense despite their strong effort against Memphis — they allow their opponents to make 48.7% of their shots which results in them giving up 114.0 PPG. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 42 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points . They may be without Jamal Murray tonight who is questionable with an ankle injury. But Michael Porter, Jr. may return to the court after missing time with a heel injury — although he may need some time to get rid of the rust. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when Porter returns to the court after missing the prior game which was a victory for Denver.
FINAL TAKE: Portland will be looking to avenge their 121-120 loss at home to the Nuggets in a heartbreaker on December 8th — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when avenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. 25* NBA Northwest Division Underdog of the Month with the Portland Trail Blazers (575) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-14-22 |
South Carolina v. UAB -16 |
Top |
70-84 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (638) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (637). THE SITUATION: UAB (7-2) had their six-game winning streak snapped with an 81-70 loss at West Virginia as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. South Carolina (5-4) has won three of their last four contests after their 68-57 win against Presbyterian as a 9-point favorite on December 11th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: UAB lost for just the second time this season after losing to Toledo on a neutral court. They have bounced back to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while the 50.0% shooting percentage of the Mountaineers on Saturday was the Blazers’ worst defensive effort of the season, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. This is a loaded team that returns six of the top nine players from last year’s group that won 27 games and lost to Houston in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. UAB has one of the best backcourts in the nation with high-scoring returning guard Jelly Walker now joined by LSU transfer Eric Gaines. They return home where they are 5-0 with an average winning margin of +31.2 points. They are nailing 50.9% of their shots at home with a 37.6% clip from behind the arc — and that is translating into 93.8 PPG. They hold their opponents to just 36.6% shooting on their home court which results in 62.6 PPG. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on their home court. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 140s. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight home games after a loss on the road. Covering 16 or so points is a difficult challenge — but UAB plays a style that produces blowouts against inferior competition. They play at a blistering pace which is the 4th quickest in the nation. They force turnovers in 20.5% of their opponent’s possessions (#91st in the nation) with four players in the top-80 percentile in steal rate — and the Gamecocks turn the ball over in 20.2% of their possessions, ranking 239th in the nation. They also crash the glass by pulling down 36.2% of their missed shots — and South Carolina allows their opponents to rebound 28.7% of their missed shots, ranking 183rd in the nation. The Gamecocks are rebuilding after firing head coach Frank Martin in the offseason after an 18-13 record and what they considered a disappointing 8th-place finish in the SEC. Only 15.4% of the minutes return from that team — and while two starters are back, they combined for under 25 minutes per game between them. The new head coach is Lamont Paris who built a strong program at Chattanooga. He brought in a handful of transfer players and recruited five-star G.G. Jackson to the school — and while Jackson oozes with potential, he is still only 17 years old. South Carolina upset Clemson early in the season — but they have lost to Colorado State, Davidson, Furman, and George Washington. They beat an overmatched Presbyterian team while shooting a season-high 49.1% from the field — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. But they allowed the Blue Hose to make 52.2% of their shots which was the fourth opponent of theirs this season that made at least 50% of their shots against them. The Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams who are winning 60% or more of their games on their home court. In their six road games, South Carolina has lost four times with an average losing margin of -11.0 PPG. They are only making 39.4% of their shots which is generating just 61.7 PPG. They allow their opponents to nail 49.8% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: The real question for this game seems to be what UAB’s winning margin will be. The Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road as a double-digit underdog — and the Blazers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games when laying 10 or more points. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the UAB Blazers (638) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (637). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-06-22 |
Mavs v. Nuggets -4.5 |
Top |
116-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (552) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (551). THE SITUATION: Denver (14-9) has lost two in a row after their 121-106 loss at New Orleans as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Dallas (12-11) has won three of their last four games after their 130-111 win against Phoenix as a 3-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver made 50.6% of their shots on Sunday which was actually the lowest shooting percentage in their last four games. The Nuggets rank 5th in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games at home after shooting 50% or better from the field in at least three straight games. Denver has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss. They are banged up a bit with Michael Porter out and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope along with Jeff Green questionable with injuries — but they are scoring at a 118.1 points per 100 possession rate without Porter on the court this year. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games. Dallas held the Suns to just 43.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games off a win at home. Additionally, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 125 or more points in their last contest. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Furthermore, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas will be looking to avenge a 98-97 upset loss at home to the Nuggets as a 10-point favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging an upset loss where they were laying 7 or more points. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Month is with the Denver Nuggets (552) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-22 |
Nets v. Pacers +4 |
Top |
117-128 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (534) plus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (533). THE SITUATION: Indiana (10-7) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 115-101 loss to Minnesota as a 1.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Brooklyn (9-10) has won three of their last four games after a 112-98 victory as a 2.5-point favorite at Toronto on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS PLUS THE POINTS: Indiana played their worst game of the season on Wednesday. Their 38.5% shooting percentage was the worst offensive effort of the season. They allowed the Timberwolves to make 61.0% of their shots in that game which was the worst defensive performance of the new season. But Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. While many expected this team to tank after beginning a rebuild when they traded Domantas Sabonis midseason last year, they are playing well. They may have the Rookie of the Year in Benedict Mathurin who they drafted as the sixth pick in the NBA draft from Arizona. Point guard Tyrese Haliburton has been a dynamic floor general and scorer for the team. And while they may still deal Myles Turner and Buddy Hield for draft assets before the trade deadline, those are two nice complementary players in the meantime. Indiana has covered the point spread in 7 straight games after winning two of their last three games. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games this month. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The laptops like them a lot as they rank 11th in the league in net Adjusted Efficiency Margin. They rank 8th in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and now they host a Nets team that can lack effort on defense and ranks 19th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Sacramento scored 153 points against them earlier this month. The Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win against a divisional rival — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. Furthermore, Brooklyn is 12-31-1 ATS in their last 44 games after a point spread win. This team is playing better under new head coach Jacques Vaughn — and Ben Simmons’ productivity has improved. But Simmons is still an issue for the team since he can lack aggressiveness on offense to avoid getting fouled — and the team lacks interior size on defense. The Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games with the Total set in the 230s. And in their last 40 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 28 of those contests.
FINAL TAKE: Indiana looks to avenge a 116-109 loss in Brooklyn to the Nets on October 31st — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when they have the opportunity for revenge. The Nets were 7.5-point favorites in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against the Pacers. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Underdog of the Month with the Indiana Pacers (534) plus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (533). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-22 |
Pistons +6 v. Wizards |
Top |
99-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (531) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (532). THE SITUATION: Detroit (1-2) has lost two games in a row after a 124-115 loss at Indiana as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Washington (2-1) lost their first game of the season in a 117-107 loss at Cleveland on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PISTONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit has been a disappointment so far this season with two bad losses on the road after a sluggish effort at home against Orlando that they still pulled out by four points in their season-opener. But this should still be a feisty team that competes for one of the Play-In spots in the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Pistons have one of the brightest young stars in the game in Cade Cunningham — and their two first-round draft picks last June, Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duran, have looked good so far this season. The team added two veterans in the offseason in Bojan Bogdanovich and Nerlens Noel to complement these players. Detroit shot only 38.9% from the field on Saturday which was the worst shooting percentage for them so far this season. Head coach Duane Casey has done a nice job overseeing the offense of this young team — the Pistons lead in the league with 47.5% of their shots coming from the rim. But Detroit is only making 52.5% of these shots which is the lowest mark in the NBA. The Regression Gods should be making an appearance sooner than later for the Pistons and their shooting - and now they play a Wizards team that appears to have taken a step back on defense in the offseason. Detroit has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games when playing their third game on the road in five days. All three of the Pistons' games have finished Over the Total — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after playing three straight Overs. Detroit was a reliable team on the road in the final few months of last season. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Washington has Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis healthy and playing together for the first time since they acquired Porzingis last season. The Wizards brought in Will Barton and Monte Morris in the offseason — but the departure of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope takes away one of their best defensive players from last season. Washington has not covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Washington returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They are just 8-25-1 ATS in their last 34 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Pistons have struggled with their defensive play as they are allowing their opponents to make 48.2% of their shots — but the Wizards have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 46% or higher. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with the Detroit Pistons (531) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-22 |
Celtics +4 v. Warriors |
Top |
94-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
33 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (525) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (526) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-39) looks to rebound from their 107-97 upset loss as a 4-point favorite at home on Friday. Golden State (67-35) evened this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS PLUS THE POINTS: Boston only made 40% of their shots on Friday after nailing 48.7% of their shots on their home court in Game Three. Jayson Tatum had an off night — while he scored 23 points and made 4 of his 8 shots from behind the arc, he was just 8 of 23 from the field overall. The Celtics got out-worked on the boards. After dominating the Warriors in Game Three by out-rebounding them by a 47 to 31 margin, they let the smaller team grab 55 boards to their 42 boards on Friday. Don’t blame Robert Williams III who pulled down 12 rebounds and had a +/- rating of +6 when he was on the court. The silver lining for Boston was that the Time Lord played 31:27 minutes in Game Four despite his nagging knee injury — and now he gets two days off to prepare for Game Five. Boston has been consistently reliable after subpar efforts. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. Boston has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss. Furthermore, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games after a low-scoring game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. The extra day of rest should help as this series gets back to the two days off between games. Boston is the younger team and the extra day should help them be fresh again where they can use their energy to get back to controlling the boards. Boston has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing with two days of rest. The Celtics have been one of the best teams playing away from home all season — and in the postseason. They are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games on the road — and they are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Boston is also 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Golden State got yet another superman effort from Stephen Curry who scored 43 points on 14 of 26 shooting on Friday. Can he keep carrying the Warriors in seemingly every game? As we predicted, head coach Steve Kerr gave Kevon Looney more court time on Friday to address the rebounding disadvantage — and he responded with 11 boards in his 28:10 minutes up action, up 11 1/2 minutes from Wednesday. But the problem with Looney on the court is that he offers nothing on the offensive end — so Boston head coach Ime Udoka should have his team prepared to expose this liability. A lingering concern for the Warriors is that Draymond Green continues to provide little as well — he missed six of his seven shots for 2 points in Game Four after scoring only 2 points in Game Three. Green’s +/- rating on Friday was 0 — and the Warriors simply cannot win this series if they are not outscoring the Celtics when he is on the court. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset victory on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset win on the road by 10 or more points.
FINAL TAKE: Boston is comfortable playing the Warriors in their building as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road against them. And in their last 7 games when avenging a double-digit loss at home to their opponent, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. 25* NBA Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (525) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-10-22 |
Warriors +4 v. Celtics |
Top |
107-97 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (523) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (524) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (66-35) has lost three of their last five games after their 116-100 loss on the road against the Celtics as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday in Game Three of the NBA Finals. Boston (65-38) has won five of their last seven games while taking a 2-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Steve Kerr identified that the biggest issue his team had in Game Three was getting beat on the boards. The Celtics enjoyed a 47-31 edge on the glass on Wednesday — and while they will likely continue to have an edge in that area, the Warriors need to work harder to minimize that advantage. There are some lineup moves that Kerr can make. But, first and foremost, Golden State needs a better game from Draymond Green after he only pulled down four rebounds before fouling out in what was his worst game in the postseason. Green later defined his own play as “soft,” which is a pretty good indication that he will be addressing the problem himself. In hindsight, it looks like he got caught up in all the technical fouls and officiating talk earlier in the week. He should play better tonight and help his team get into a better offensive flow after dishing out three assists and scoring two points in Game Three. As a point forward, he generates 6.1 Assists-Per-Game with that mark rising to a 7.1 clip in the playoffs. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after scoring no more than 100 points in their last game. Additionally, Golden State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. Boston nailed 48.3% of their shots in Game Three which was the second-best shooting mark in their last seven games. They are also making 43% of their shots from behind the arc in this series — I do expect that to decline. The Celtics also took 24 shots from the free-throw line on Wednesday was seven more attempts than what Golden State got after the officials were on notice about the Green drama after Game Two. Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 home games after a double-digit victory. Furthermore, the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 50 home games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 45 home games after a point spread victory. Boston has also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games at home with the Total set in the 210s. Another concern for Boston tonight is the health of Robert Williams III. The Time Lord was great in Game Three with the Celtics outscoring the Warriors by 21 points with him on the court. But this will be the first time since Game Seven against Miami last round when Williams will be playing on just one day of rest. The knee injury that has slowed him down for months may give him troubles tonight — he was only able to play 14:42 minutes in that crucial game against the Heat on May 29th, almost two weeks ago.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 25* NBA Friday Television Game of the Year with the Golden State Warriors (523) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-08-22 |
Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 |
Top |
100-116 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (522) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (521) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (64-38) looks to rebound from their 107-88 loss on the road against the Warriors as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Golden State (66-34) has won six of their last eight games while evening this series at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston accomplished what they needed in Game One by winning that game and seizing home-court advantage. Head coach Ime Udoka may have kept a few of his planned tricks in this series up his sleeve in Game Two. The Celtics may have been dealing with some fatigue after needing seven games to get by both Miami and Milwaukee in earlier rounds of the playoffs. The two full days off between games will help as this team returns home. Boston has covered the point spread after all 6 of their previous losses in the postseason -- and they have an averaging winning margin of +15.5 Points-Per-Game in those six contests. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after a double-digit loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after not scoring more than 95 points in their last contest. Boston needs to tighten things up in protecting the basketball after committing 18 turnovers in Game Three. The Celtics average 13 turnovers per game on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their 11 games in the playoffs after committing at least 14 turnovers in their previous game this postseason. Stephen Curry scored 14 of his 29 points off turnovers in Game Two — so his scoring will probably go down if — and when — Boston turns the ball over fewer times tonight. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the playoffs after a straight-up win this postseason — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing on the road in these playoffs after a straight-up win. The Warriors are 10-1 at home in the postseason — but they are just 3-4 on the road straight-up. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games when playing for the second time in five days. Golden State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: This is a good opportunity to take the Celtics with the narrative that Boston has played poorly on their home court with “just” a 5-4 record in these playoffs. They still have a 33-17 record with a +6.7 PPG at home this season. Boston has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games since March after a loss. And in their two games in the playoffs played at home after a loss, the Celtics beat Milwaukee in Game Two of that series by 23 points before beating Miami in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals by 20 points. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 opportunities to host the Warriors at TD Garden. 25* NBA Wednesday Television Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (522) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-22 |
Celtics -2.5 v. Heat |
Top |
100-96 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (509) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (62-37) looks to rebound from their 111-103 upset loss at home to the Heat as an 8-point underdog on Friday. Miami (64-35) snapped a two-game losing streak in this series by forcing the decisive Game Seven.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: It is telling that Boston has been identified as the favorite tonight despite the historical success of home teams in Game Sevens. The Celtics have the better numbers in most categories in this series: Offensive Efficiency, assist percentage, rebounding percentage, effective field goal percentage, fast break points, made 3-pointers, and free throw attempts. The only areas where the Heat have the edge over the Celtics are in points off turnovers, second-chance points, and points in the paint. Boston went into the locker room trailing by a 48-46 score — and then somehow Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined to take only seven shots from the field in the second half in the 8-point loss. I expect that to be corrected by this duo playing in their sixth Eastern Conference Finals series in their young careers. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — including covering the point spread after all five of their losses in the postseason. They have an average margin of victory in the playoffs after a loss by +12.1 Points-Per-Game — and they beat Miami by 20 and 25 points after their two previous losses to them in this series. Boston has also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after not scoring more than 105 points in their last game. Interestingly, while the Celtics have just a 5-4 record at home in the playoffs, they have a 6-2 straight-up record on the road including two victories in Miami in this series. Boston is 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games when favored. Miami got a surprising performance from Jimmy Butler on Friday as he scored 47 points while converting 16 of 29 shots from the field and nailing four 3-pointers (not really his game). This was surprising not because I have any doubts about Butler’s talents but because he seemed to be so negatively impacted by the knee inflammation that kept him out of the second half in Game Three. Butler scored only 19 points on 7 of 32 shooting in Games Four and Five combined. I just remain skeptical that Butler can put two superhuman performances in a row on that bum knee — especially when he played 45:57 minutes on Friday. Kyle Lowry has also been slowed with his hamstring but stepped up to score 18 points on Friday after scoring only 3 points on 1 of 12 shooting in Games Four and Five. Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and P.J. Tucker have also been slowed by injuries in this series. And then there is Tyler Herro who has not played since injuring his groin in Game Three. The Heat lose -2.8 points per 100 possessions with Herro on the court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games playing without him. Even if he tries to take the court tonight, his effectiveness remains very much in doubt considering his injury usually puts NBA players on the shelf for two to four weeks. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games at home after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 playoff games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Heat in Miami. I don’t the Heat — I am just skeptical that they can come close to replicating the performance in Game Six given their injury situation. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (509) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-22 |
Warriors v. Mavs -2 |
Top |
109-100 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (564) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (563) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (60-37) returns home down 0-2 in this series after their 126-117 loss on the road against the Warriors on Friday. Golden State (63-32) has won five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas was in reach to pull the upset in Game Two — they entered the fourth quarter trailing by two points and remained within four points with under four minutes to go before getting outscored by a 19-14 margin the rest of the way. The Mavericks allowed the Warriors to nail 56.1% of their shots (14 of their 28 shots from behind the arc) which was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. But Dallas has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. The Mavericks have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a point spread loss. Don’t underestimate this Dallas team — this is a cohesive team that usually makes more 3s while attempting 46.3% of their shots from behind the arc in the first two rounds of the playoffs. And they are led by a superstar in Luka Doncic who can put his team on his shoulders. After a 17-18 start, the Mavericks ended the regular season with a 35-12 run. They outscored Utah and Phoenix by +5.8 Points-Per-Game which was the second-highest mark after the first two rounds of the playoffs. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 home games when favored by up to six points. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with one day of rest. The Warriors go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Golden State has also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Dallas against the Mavericks. And in Dallas’ last 28 games when given the opportunity for same-season revenge, they have covered the point spread in 20 of these contests. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (564) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (563). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-13-22 |
Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks |
Top |
108-95 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (515) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (516) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (57-34) has lost two of their last three games in this series after a 110-107 upset loss at home to the Bucks on Wednesday. Milwaukee (58-34) took a 3-2 lead in this best-of-seven series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS PLUS THE POINT(S): Boston lost a heartbreaker on Wednesday — they had a six-point lead with just over two minutes to go on their home court. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed a crucial second free throw late — but Bobby Portis pulled down the offensive rebound and scored the go-ahead winning basket. The Celtics still had a chance to score — but then Jrue Holiday made two crucial blocks to ice the game for the defending NBA champions. Excruciating for this Boston team — but this is a veteran group despite the young ages of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown who already have tons of playoff and Game Seven experiences. They should be resilient and respond tonight. Boston has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. Boston did shoot 51.2% from the field on Wednesday — but they only made 10 of their 31 shots (32%) from behind the arc so they are not coming off an outlier effort from distance. Back on the road, they are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They are also 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games as an underdog — and they are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games as a dog overall. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset loss on the road as an underdog. Furthermore, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games at home after a straight-up win. Milwaukee outrebounded the Celtics by a 49-36 margin which was the third-straight game where they won the rebounding battle in this series by at least six boards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 42 games after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least five boards. Boston has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after getting outrebounded by their last three opponents by at least five boards. The Bucks got another superhuman performance from Antetokounmpo in Game Five as he scored 40 points on 16 of 27 shooting. But he missed Khris Middleton who plays such a crucial role in the offensive attack for this team. Since the beginning of the 2020-21 season, Milwaukee is just 14-14 in their last 28 games without Middleton — and they are just 12-15-1 ATS in those contests. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their45 games on their home court this season. They are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored by no more than six points. They are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Boston may get Robert Williams III back for this game which will help their defensive efforts. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Boston will be confident tonight — they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against the Bucks and they are 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Underdog of the Year is on the Boston Celtics (515) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-10-22 |
76ers v. Heat -2.5 |
Top |
85-120 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (502) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (501) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (59-32) lost both games on the road against the 76ers after a 116-108 loss as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (57-35) has evened this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: Miami allowed the Sixers to make 54.4% of their shots in Game Four which was the worst defensive effort in their last 30 games. To compound matters, the Heat continue to struggle with their 3-point shooting. After making only 7 of 30 shots from behind the arc in Game Three, Miami converted on just 7 of their 35 shots from downtown. It’s tough to give too much credit to the Philly defense for this ineffectiveness either — the Heat missed 19 of their 24 shots from 3-point range that were uncontested or lightly contested shots. I do expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance for Miami tonight after making only 21.5% of their shots from behind the arc in the two games in Philadelphia. Back at home, the Heat convert 37.6% of their shots from 3-point range. Granted, Duncan Robinson is not playing significant minutes in this series since he will be a defensive liability against James Harden -- and that removes one of the best 3-point shooters in the Miami rotation. But the other Heat players should see more of their 3-pointers drop moving forward and back at home. Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Heat have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after playing their last two games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing their last two games on the road. Back at home, Miami has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Heat have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 42 of their last 62 playoff games when favored. Philadelphia’s 54.4% shooting percentage was their best offensive effort in this series. They nailed 16 of their 33 (48%) of their shots from behind the arc. Joel Embiid made one of those 3-pointers — it was a bank shot from the top of the arc. Pretty fortunate after not even attempting a 3-pointer in Game Three. He is still dealing with a broken thumb on his shooting hand that has altered his 3-point shot. He had missed nine straight 3-pointers going into Sunday with his last made 3-pointer was back on April 20th. With Embiid not a threat from behind the arc, the Sixers offense becomes limited since defenders are comfortable to play off him when he drifts to the perimeter. Harden played his best game in the postseason with 31 points on 8 of 18 shooting while nailing 6 of his 10 shots from downtown. I am not a believer — heck, I have never been a big believer in Harden in the playoffs when the refs call fewer fouls and the pressure is higher — he looks like he is moving in slow motion. His good game on Sunday might have enabled some bad habits tonight. As it is, the Sixers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread win. Now they go back on the road where they made just 14 of their 64 (21.9%) of their 3-pointers. Having a healthy Embiid back helps Philly’s balance on offense — but they are still facing a Heat team that holds their guests to just 33.7% shooting from behind the arc when playing at home. The 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Philly has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Miami to play the Heat. The Heat have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. Miami has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing with double-revenge. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Game of the Year is on the Miami Heat (502) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-08-22 |
Heat +2.5 v. 76ers |
Top |
108-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (579) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (580) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (59-31) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Friday in a 99-79 upset loss on the road against Philadelphia as a 1.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (56-35) made this a 2-1 series with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: Miami only made 35.1% of their shots in Game Three which was the worst shooting effort in their last 72 games. The Heat appeared out-of-synch with the surprise decision by the Sixers that Joel Embiid was ready to take the court again after passing the concussion protocol (and despite his orbital injury that had him wearing a protective mask). But it was more than just the return of Embiid — Miami could not hit the side of a barn on Friday. They missed 8 of their 10 uncontested shots. They only converted on 29.8% of their jump shots despite the deeper metrics indicating their expected field goal percentage was 48%. The Heat simply need to execute better tonight — better passing and better shooting. They have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring more than 90 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 38 of their last 58 games after a loss on the road by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by double-digits despite being a road favorite. They stay on the road where they are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Heat have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games as a dog. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia plays their best defensive game of the season by holding the Heat to just 35.1% shooting. The Sixers nailed 16 of their 33 shots from behind the arc for a 48.5% shooting clip. But the troubling aspect for Philadelphia is that they only scored 99 points despite enjoying so much success from distance. The 76ers’ posted only a 111 Offensive Rating in Game Three — and their efficiency actually dropped to scoring 107 points per 100 possessions when Embiid was on the court. Embiid scored a respectable 18 points but he did not attempt a 3-point attempt. He is still dealing with a broken thumb on his shooting hand that has altered his 3-point shot. He has missed nine straight 3-pointers — and his last made 3-pointer was back on April 20th. If Embiid is not a threat from behind the arc, the Sixers' offense becomes limited since defenders are comfortable playing off him when he drifts to the perimeter. As it is, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after pulling off an upset win as a home underdog. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home after losing two of their last three games. The 76ers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 200 to 209.5.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when playing with same-season revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss by 20 or more points on the road. 25* NBA Sunday Night Special Feature with the Miami Heat (579) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (580). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-07-22 |
Grizzlies v. Warriors -6.5 |
Top |
112-142 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (574) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (573) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (58-31) looks to rebound from their 106-101 upset loss on the road against the Grizzlies as a 2-point favorite on Tuesday. Memphis (61-29) evened the series at 1-1 with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State was flat after seizing home-court advantage in the opening game of this series despite not playing with the suspended Draymond Green in the second half in Game One. The Warriors made only 42.1% of their shots from the field which was the lowest shooting mark in their last eight games. They missed 31 of their 38 shots from behind the arc for a low 18% field goal percentage from 3-point range. Back at home, Golden State should play much better. Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 home games after a straight-up loss. They are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing with at least three days of rest. The Warriors have a 34-10 record on their home court — and their numbers probably betray how good they will perform at home moving forward since the team was rarely at full strength with the Big Three of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson playing together again. And then there is the new emerging “Death Lineup” (PTSD?) which includes All-Star Andrew Wiggins and rising star Jordan Poole. That group overwhelmed Denver in the first two games of the Western Conference Quarterfinals when the Warriors outscored the Nuggets by an average of 18 PPG while scoring 124.5 Points-Per-Game on 53.6% shooting from the field in both games. Golden State was not as prolific on their home court in Game Five of that series in a 102-98 victory — but let’s give them a pass in that game since they were in control of the series (and did still win the game). The Warriors are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road — and they are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Memphis risks being a bit rusty in this game after the mid-series hiatus since Tuesday to accommodate the television schedule moving forward. They are just 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games. And while this is just their fourth game in the last 11 days, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 road games when playing not more than their fourth game in ten days. Memphis played their best game on defense by holding the Warriors to a 42.1% shooting percentage in their last five games. But they only made 39.6% of their own shots — and it could have been worse if it was not for Ja Morant who put his team on his back by scoring 47 points while adding 8 rebounds and 8 assists. Morant nailed 15 of his 31 shots from the field — but his teammates only made 21 of 60 shots for a troubling 35% shooting percentage. The Grizzlies will be without Dillon Brooks tonight after he got suspended for his hard foul on Gary Payton, Jr. and elbow injury that will keep him out indefinitely. Memphis is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 playoff games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing in Golden State against the Warriors.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 opportunities for revenge. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss on the road. 25* NBA ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Golden State Warriors (574) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-06-22 |
Suns v. Mavs |
Top |
94-103 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (552) plus the point(s) (or minus) versus the Phoenix Suns (551) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (56-34) returns home down 0-2 in this series after their 129-109 loss on the road to the Suns as a 6-point underdog on Wednesday. Phoenix (70-20) has won four straight games and five of their last six.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS (OR AS A PICK ‘EM): Dallas looked outmatched in their two games in Phoenix — but Luka Doncic had his way in both games. Doncic has scored 80 points in this series after posting 45 points on Wednesday — and he added 12 rebounds and 8 assists in the losing effort. The Mavericks have made 41% of their shots from 3-point land in each of the first two games of this series — but head coach Jason Kidd’s team made 37.1% of their shots from behind the arc in their six-game series with Utah last round. Dallas should play their best game of the series tonight. They have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 52 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss on the road. Furthermore, the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a double-digit loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a loss by 20 or more points on the road. Dallas allowed the Suns to nail 64.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them all season — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Phoenix shot 50.5% from the field in Game One of this series as well — but the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots in their last two games. Dallas returns home for the first time since April 25th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Mavs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record. Phoenix posted the seventh best field goal percentage in the history of the NBA playoffs with their 64.5% shooting clip on Wednesday — and it was their best shooting effort of the season. I do expect an appearance from the Regression Gods. The Suns made 37.3% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home during the regular season — but that mark drops to a 35.4% clip when playing on the road. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after a double-digit win at home. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight games and six of their last eight contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight contests. The Suns have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing with one day of rest.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games when avenging a same-season loss. 25* NBA 2nd Round Western Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (552) plus the point(s) (or minus) versus the Phoenix Suns (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-26-22 |
Wolves v. Grizzlies -5.5 |
Top |
109-111 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (542) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (541) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (58-28) had won the previous two games in this series before losing on the road to the Timberwolves by a 119-118 score as a 2.5-point favorite. Minnesota (49-38) has evened this series at 2-2.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota had most things go right for them in Game Four. They made 47.3% of their shots from the field — their best shooting effort since Game One — and nailed 18 of their 36 (50%) shots from behind the arc. After losing the free throw attempt battle by at least four shots in each of the first three games of the series, they took 40 shots from the charity stripe on Sunday — and they converted 31 of these shots which were six more than all of Memphis’ attempts from the free-throw line. Karl Anthony-Towns exploded with 33 points while steering away from the foul problems that plagued him in the previous two games. Ja Morant only scored 11 points on 4 of 13 shooting. Yet despite all these fortunate events, Minnesota only won the game by one point. The T-Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a win by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after an upset win at home. Now they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road as an underdog. Memphis has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 55 games after a point spread loss. Head coach Taylor Jenkins ripped the referees after the game for the foul disparity — look for the Grizzlies to once again win the free throw attempt battle back on their home court. Morant should play better back at home as well. He has a 52.3% effective field goal percentage with a 40.4% shooting clip at home as opposed to his 46.6% effective field goal percentage and 29.6% mark from 3-point range on the road. Memphis has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games when favored overall.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Month with the Memphis Grizzlies (542) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-24-22 |
Bucks v. Bulls +4 |
Top |
119-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (522) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (521) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Chicago (47-38) has lost six of their last eight games after their 111-81 loss at home to the Bucks as a 2.5-point underdog on Friday. Milwaukee (53-32) took a 2-1 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: We were not surprised that the Bucks stepped up to play their best game in this series in Game Three in response to Khris Middleton’s MCL strain in Game Two which will keep him out the rest of the series. But with the knowledge that the defending champions gained that they can raise their level of play and blow this Chicago team off the court, do they resort back to the lackadaisical group that was sluggish in the first two games of this series? Milwaukee swept the Bulls in their four regular-season games by a +14.7 net Points-Per-Game average. But they only made 40.5% of their shots in Game One which was the worst shooting effort in their last 35 games before losing Game Two with their mild improvement in shooting to a 45.8% clip. Sloppiness with the basketball played a large role in the first two games — they committed 21 turnovers in Game One before committing 15 turnovers in Game Two. The Bucks were better in protecting the basketball on Friday with them only turning the ball over nine times. But with point guard George Hill still out with an abdominal injury, don’t be surprised if these turnover issues rear its ugly head again. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last contest. Milwaukee made 47.3% of their shots without Middleton in Game Three which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But the Bucks are likely to have trouble consistently getting baskets without Middleton who was scoring 20.1 Points-Per-Game. Milwaukee was fifth in the NBA by scoring 115.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time — but that clip drops to 109.7 points per 100 possessions when playing without Middleton on the court. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51% to 60% range. Chicago has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 27 games after losing two of their last three games. After a sluggish second half to the season, the Bulls have more closely resembled the team that opened the campaign with a 27-11 record. Getting Alex Caruso back from injury has made a big difference as he is the team’s best player on defense. The team certainly still misses Lonzo Ball — but their team dynamic may be better served to compete under the pressure of playoff basketball. They have a savvy veteran in DeMar DeRozan who silenced his critics that he disappears in the playoffs from his past experiences with Toronto and San Antonio by scoring 41 points in their upset win in Game Two. Chicago only made 9 of their 34 shots from behind the arc on Friday for a 26% shooting percentage en route to a 39.3% mark for the game. They should shoot better in Game Four on their home court again where they make 48.3% of their shots including 36.8% of their shots from 3-point range to generate 113.4 PPG. The Bulls had a 27-14 record while covering the point spread in 25 of their 41 games on their home court. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 home games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home by 20 or more points. 25* NBA Central Division Underdog of the Year with the Chicago Bulls (522) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-22-22 |
Bucks -2 v. Bulls |
Top |
111-81 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (503) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (504) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (52-32) looks to rebound from a 114-110 upset loss at home to the Bulls as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday. Chicago (47-37) evened this series at 1-1 with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee had their worst shooting game in 35 contests in Game One of this series by making just 40.5% of their shots. Rather than tightening things up, the Bucks were flat — particularly on defense — in Game Two against a team they had beaten in all five of their meetings this season. It is not uncommon for reigning NBA champions to become complacent. But now after that embarrassing result at home and now the series-ending injury to Khris Middleton, Milwaukee has lost the luxury of thinking they can take things for granted. The loss of Middleton is tough — but head coach Mike Budenholzer has credible options to turn to in Bobby Ports, Grayson Allen, and Pat Connaughton. Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez remain as core pieces to this championship team. And the Bucks still have Giannis Antetokounmpo who is scoring 30 Points-Per-Game in this series on 53.8% shooting while averaging 17 Rebounds-Per-Game and 6.0 Assists-Per-Game. Led by Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee should play their best game of the series tonight with this new sense of urgency. As it is, the Bucks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when favored. This veteran team has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games when the series is tied. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win against a Central Division rival. Now the Bulls return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 49 of their last 72 home games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games as an underdog this season. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Bulls have failed to cover the point spread 7 times.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games against the Bulls in Chicago. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss where they were at least a 7-point favorite. 25* NBA ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Milwaukee Bucks (503) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-20-22 |
76ers v. Raptors +2.5 |
Top |
104-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (564) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (563) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Toronto (48-36) has lost three straight games after losing on the road to the 76ers by a 112-97 score as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. Philadelphia (53-31) has won four straight games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: It may look tough to back Toronto after losing the first two games of this series by 20 and 15 points. Injuries have played a role. Scottie Barnes is still listed as doubtful tonight with his ankle injury but Gary Trent, Jr. should play after playing 10 minutes on Monday. He was not effective but the two additional days of fluids should help him play better tonight after a case of the flu. The Raptors still lack the size to deal with Joel Embiid with Barnes out — but in head coach Nick Nurse, I trust, to get this team playing better back on their home court. Toronto has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Raptors have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss by 15 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after losing two in a row by 15 or more points. Toronto has not covered the point spread in their three-game losing streak — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games. And they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when on a three-game losing streak. The Sixers have made 51.2% and 52.2% of their shots in this series — but the Raptors have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing their last two opponents to nail at least 50% of their shots. Back at home, Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games against teams with a winning record — and they have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after covering the point spread in their last two games as the favorite. And while the 76ers have won their last four games by at least 12 points, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning at least three in a row by double-digits. Philly held the Raptors to just 42.7% shooting on Monday which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games. But now this team goes back on the road where they have not been as effective. They are not likely to continue a 32 to 17.5 free throw attempt average as they have enjoyed in the first two games in Philadelphia. The Sixers will probably see fewer of their 3-pointers fall in Toronto as well — while they are nailing a red-hot 49% of their shots from behind the arc in this series, they should come closer to their 36.7% shooting percentage from 3-point range moving forward. Philly will not have Matisse Thybulle tonight since he is not vaccinated against COVID which precludes him from traveling to Canada. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging two straight losses by double-digits to their opponent. The Sixers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in Toronto against the Raptors. 25* NBA Round One Eastern Conference Playoff Underdog of the Year with the Toronto Raptors (564) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (563). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-19-22 |
Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 |
Top |
96-124 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (552) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (551) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (56-27) has lost four of their last five games after their 130-117 upset loss to the Timberwolves in the opening game of this best-of-seven series. Minnesota (48-36) has won five of their last seven games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis’ lack of playoff experience may have caught up with them in their opening game in the playoffs this postseason against a Timberwolves team that got through the Play-In Tournament. But the Grizzlies remain a talented and deep team that was just one of two teams in the NBA to post a top-six ranking in both Offensive and Defensive Ratings. They have allowed three of their last four opponents to make at least 50% of their shots — and they missed 20 of their 27 shots from behind the arc on Saturday. Memphis locked up the second seed before the regular season ended — and now it is the time for them to ramp up their intensity again under head coach Taylor Jenkins. The Grizzlies have Ja Morant back — and Jenkins is one of the best young coaches in the game. They should respond with a strong effort to even this series at 1-1. Memphis has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 51 games after a loss by double-digits. They still have a 30-11 record on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games at home. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. Minnesota got what they needed with the victory in Game One to seize home-court advantage in this series — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when avenging a double-digit loss. I appreciate that Minnesota is better than their record after enduring a regular-season dealing with injuries and COVID issues. But they too are inexperienced in the postseason. Don’t be surprised if their effort is underwhelming tonight. As it is, the T-Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games against the Grizzlies — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games in Memphis. 25* NBA-TV Game of the Year is on the Memphis Grizzlies (552) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-16-22 |
Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 |
Top |
130-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (520) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (519) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (56-26) enters the playoffs having lost three of their last four games after their 139-110 loss to Boston as a 9.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (47-36) has won four of their last six games after their 109-104 win against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 3.5-point favorite in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: The Timberwolves orchestrated a dramatic comeback by rallying from a six-point deficit entering the fourth quarter by outscoring the Clippers by a 31-20 margin despite playing most of that final 12 minutes with Karl Anthony-Towns. After the game, Patrick Beverley partied like it was 1999 in front of the home fans after sticking it to his former team. Anthony Edwards scored 30 points and D’Angelo Russell added 29 points. After that accomplishment, I am expecting a big emotional letdown with this team now in the official playoffs. As it is, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a victory by six points or less. The Timberwolves are a tough out at home where they have a 27-15 record. But on the road, Minnesota is just 20-21 while allowing their opponents to make 48.4% of their shots. The T-Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road as an underdog. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. To compound matters, they may be without Taurean Prince for this game who is questionable with a knee injury. The former Baylor star scored 10.5 Points-Per-Game while averaging more than 20 minutes per game off the bench since the All-Star break. Memphis has rested all week licking their chops for their opponent to survive the Play-In Tournament — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with at least three days of rest. They rested their starters last Sunday in a game where they only made 38.2% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 23 games. But the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a double-digit loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 125 or more points in their last contest. Memphis has been dominant at home with a 30-11 record — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of those 41 games. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The team has Ja Morant back in the mix after he missed extended time in the second half of the season. Memphis is real good — only they and Phoenix finished the regular season ranked in the top-six and Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis will be motivated to avenge a 119-114 upset loss at Minnesota as a 1.5-point road favorite on February 24th. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against the Grizzlies — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games in Memphis. 25* NBA Saturday ESPN Game of the Month with the Memphis Grizzlies (520) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-15-22 |
Hawks v. Cavs +2.5 |
Top |
107-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (510) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (509) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (44-39) has lost four of their last five games after their 115-108 loss at Brooklyn as a 9.5-point underdog in their first Play-In game on Tuesday. Atlanta (44-39) won their eighth game in their last ten games with a 132-103 victory against Charlotte as a 5-point favorite in their first Play-In game on Wednesday. The winner of this game seizes the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs and plays at Miami on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland allowed the Nets to make 53.6% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst defensive mark in their last 11 games. But after digging themselves a hole early with a 20-point deficit after the first quarter, the Cavs did keep fighting to stay competitive and cover the point spread. Darius Garland was outstanding as he nailed 13 of his 24 shots en route to 34 points. Cleveland is 26-10-2 ATS in their last 38 games after a point spread win. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And while they have dropped six of their last eight games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Returning home will help this team where they were 25-16 this season (as opposed to their 19-23 record on the road). They are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games as an underdog. Cleveland also may get Jarrett Allen back for this game — and that would be a big shot in the arm for this team. The Cavaliers already got rookie big man Evan Mobley back earlier this week — and if they can also get Allen back on the court after missing 19 games from a finger injury, they have their dynamic duo in the middle which makes them a very difficult team to score against. With Allen on the court, Cleveland allows -3.2 fewer points per 100 possessions. He has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game — and he clearly wants to play given that the Cavs’ season could end tonight with a loss. Even if Allen does not play, Cleveland should stay competitive in this game with a real chance to extend their season. Having a veteran like Rajon Rondo playing alongside Garland should help in this one-and-done playoff game. Atlanta comes off one of their best games of the season. They held the Hornets to just 37.8% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last 35 games. They also nailed 52.1% of their shots which was the best shooting percentage in their last seven contests. Trae Young scored 24 points but only on 8 of 24 shooting. Five other players scoring in double figures helped compensate for Young missing seven of his eight shots from behind the arc. Interestingly, the deeper analytics projected that the Hawks would typically only win that game against the Hornets by six points based on the expected points from the quality of shots taken. A letdown looks likely for this team — and this is a group not playing at full strength who has not been nearly as effective on the road. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win. The Hawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after winning two of their last three games. Atlanta thrives at home where they have a 28-14 record — but they are just 16-25 on the road. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games when favored by up to six points. Injuries continue to keep this team undermanned. Lou Williams is out and now Bogan Bogdanovich is questionable with an ankle. But it is the likely absence of big man John Collins for the 18th straight game that looms most ominous in this matchup. Atlanta needs his size against Mobley and potentially Allen in the middle. The Hawks have managed to out-rebound their last three opponents by at least ten boards after winning the rebounding battle against the Hornets by a 54-41 margin. But Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after out-rebounding their last three opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Hawks have won the last three meetings between these two teams — but the Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with triple revenge. The recent success against Cleveland — and their easy one on Wednesday — may work against this Atlanta team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals last season. 25* NBA Play-In Tournament Game of the Year with the Cleveland Cavaliers (510) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (509). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-13-22 |
Spurs v. Pelicans -5 |
Top |
103-113 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (507) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (36-46) enters this game coming off two straight losses after a 128-107 loss to Golden State as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. San Antonio (34-48) has lost three in a row after their 130-120 loss at Dallas as a 10-point underdog on Sunday. The winner of this game plays in Los Angeles against the Clippers on Friday to determine the 8th seed in the Western Conference playoffs.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans had won eight of eleven games to clinch hosting this play-in game before dropping their last two games with nothing more that was mathematically possible to gain. This team is much better than their record. The Pelicans started the season by losing 13 of 16 games dealing with not having Zion Williamson on the court. But the team adapted and started playing better under rookie head coach Willie Greene. This club was then transformed with the acquisition of C.J. McCollum at the trade deadline. The former Portland Trail Blazer is scoring 24.3 Points-Per-Game while making 49.3% of his shots — and he is averaging a career-high in assists and rebounds while embracing a leadership role he could never have playing alongside Damian Lillard in Portland. McCollum offers the team a dynamic one-two punch with Brandon Ingram. Although those two only played 15 games together this season, they won nine of those contests. Ingram was dealing with a hamstring injury last week but he has been upgraded to probable alongside Jonas Valuncianas, Devonte Graham, and Herbert Jones who should all be good to go. Since the All-Star break, New Orleans ranks seventh in the NBA in Net Rating while ranking 10th in the league with their Offensive Rating and ninth with their Defensive Rating. They did allow the Warriors to make 60.5% of their shots on Sunday — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. The Pelicans have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, while New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread in their last two contests. Additionally, the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss to a Southwest Division rival. The Spurs are solid but unspectacular. They rank 17th in Net Rating for the season with an Offensive Rating that is 17th in the NBA and a Defensive Rating that is 16th. Since the All-Star break, San Antonio ranks 19th in Net Rating, placing 17th still in Offensive Rating and 16th in Defensive Rating. Their .414 winning percentage would not have been good enough to reach the Play-In Tournament last season, but they were the beneficiaries of the second-half collapses by the Lakers and Trail Blazers. Future Hall of Fame head coach Gregg Popovich has gotten the most out of his roster. But New Orleans holds a significant talent edge now that they have McCollum playing alongside Ingram. The Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games as an underdog getting up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: San Antonio allows their opponents to make 46.6% of their shots — and the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games in the second half of the season against teams who allow their opponents to make at least 46% of their shots. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Year with the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (507). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-04-22 |
North Carolina +4.5 v. Kansas |
Top |
69-72 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (721) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (722) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (29-9) won their 11th game in their last 12 with their 81-77 upset victory against Duke as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas (33-6) won their tenth straight game with their 81-65 victory against Villanova as a 4-point favorite in their Final Four game on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS PLUS THE POINTS: David McCormack may have played the best game of his career on Saturday by making 10 of 12 shots in the field en route to his 25 points. He dominated the Wildcats inside and took full advantage of their lack of size. But McCormack has been enigmatic his entire career — he has a high ceiling but his biggest challenge has been maintaining consistency from game to game. McCormack is emblematic of this entire Kansas team: when they are playing at their best, they look unbeatable. But too often this Jayhawks team gets in their own way as they seem to lose focus. After trailing Miami (FL) 35-29 at half-time in their Elite Eight, Kansas has probably their best 60 consecutive minutes all season. But, frankly, I will pay to see if they can nail 13 of 24 (54%) of their 3-pointers as they did against Villanova. The Jayhawks had only made 33% of their shots from behind the arc in their 11 previous games on a neutral court before Saturday. Kansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after nailing at least 13 shots from 3-point land in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after making at least 50% of their shots from behind the arc in their last game. This Jayhawks team was flat in the first half against the Hurricanes last weekend. They struggled against an injured Creighton team playing without their best two players. They let Providence back in their Round of 32 game despite the Friars not being able to hit the side of a barn for most of that contest.
Before the season started, I vowed to try to pay attention to teams who made significant advances midseason with the benefit of coaching kicking in after the chaos of the COVID-tainted campaign the year before. It took North Carolina’s victory against a very good UCLA team for me to finally appreciate what rookie head coach Hubert Davis has done with this Tar Heels team. I thought that Bruins' team that went to the Final Four last year was really good — but North Carolina rallied from a 56-51 deficit with under nine minutes to go to cleanly win by a 73-66 score. A 22-10 run to close out that game was impressive. A mistake the analytics community in all-sports can make is not knowing when to pivot away from season-long stats to privilege recent data — ask those bettors who did not figure out the Cincinnati Bengals. One of the power rankings systems I use considered the Tar Heels the best team in the nation going into Saturday in terms of Net Adjusted Efficiency over their last ten games. Those numbers also ranked North Carolina with the fifth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency since February 17th (before the Duke game). What stands out for me with this team is their balance. Four different players have led them in scoring in each of their four NCAA Tournament games. Brady Manek scored 28 points in their opening win against Marquette. R.J. Davis poured in 30 points in their dethroning of the reigning champion Baylor. Caleb Love scored 30 points in the win against UCLA. And then Armando Bacot scored 22 points and added 20 rebounds in their 20-point win against St. Peter’s. It was then Love on Saturday who took charge for this team by scoring 28 points against the Blue Devils. What these Tar Heels can do that too many of the teams under Roy Williams could not is make their 3s. North Carolina has seen at least one player nail at least four 3s in each of their games in the Big Dance. And while them taking 38.2% of their shots from behind the mark is just above the 37.7% national average, there were many years under Williams where they were not taking more than 30% of their shots from 3-point range. The Tar Heels are rolling — and I expect the momentum to continue after the continued confidence they have after beating a Duke team loaded with future NBA talent. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread win.
FINAL TAKE: I will not be surprised if Kansas does not play as well as they did on Saturday. But even if they play at the same high level as they did in the second half against Miami (FL) and Villanova, I still expect North Carolina to be very competitive. The Jayhawks will not be able to dominate the offensive boards like they did the Wildcats by pulling down 37.0% of their missed shots. North Carolina ranks second in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding only 21.6% of their missed shots. The Tar Heels are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as an underdog. I think North Carolina wins straight-up — but I do not recommend “sprinkling” (such a lame phrasing for throwing one’s money away) any money on them with the money-line. Why forego the insurance that is the 4 or so points they are getting in this game? If you want to make more money, then parlay the Tar Heels (with the points) with my totals play for this game. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year on the North Carolina Tar Heels (721) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-02-22 |
North Carolina +4.5 v. Duke |
Top |
81-77 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (703) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (704) in the Final Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (28-9) has won 10 of their last 11 games after a 69-49 victory against Saint Peter’s as an 8.5-point favorite in the Elite Eight last Sunday. Duke (32-6) has won six of their last seven games with their 78-69 win against Arkansas last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS PLUS THE POINTS: Before the season started, I vowed to try to pay attention to teams who made significant advances midseason with the benefit of coaching kicking in after the chaos of the COVID-tainted campaign the year before. It took North Carolina’s victory against a very good UCLA team for me to finally appreciate what rookie head coach Hubert Davis has done with this Tar Heels team. I thought that Bruins' team that went to the Final Four last year was really good — but North Carolina rallied from a 56-51 deficit with under nine minutes to go to cleanly win by a 73-66 score. A 22-10 run to close out that game was impressive. A mistake the analytics community in all-sports can make is not knowing when to pivot away from season-long stats to privilege recent data — ask those bettors who did not figure out the Cincinnati Bengals. One of the power rankings systems I use considers the Tar Heels the best team in the nation in terms of Net Adjusted Efficiency over their last ten games. Those numbers also rank North Carolina with the fifth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency since February 17th. What stands out for me with this team is their balance. Four different players have led them in scoring in each of their four NCAA Tournament games. Brady Manek scored 28 points in their opening win against Marquette. R.J. Davis poured in 30 points in their dethroning of the reigning champion Baylor. Caleb Love scored 30 points in the win against UCLA. And then Armando Bacot scored 22 points and added 20 rebounds in their 20-point win against the Peacocks. What these Tar Heels can do that too many of the teams under Roy Williams could not is make their 3s. North Carolina has seen at least one player nail at least four 3s in each of their games in the Big Dance. And while them taking 38.2% of their shots from behind the mark is just above the 37.7% national average, there were many years under Williams where they were not taking more than 30% of their shots from 3-point range. The Tar Heels are rolling — and I expect the momentum to continue. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning four of their last five games. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. Additionally, North Carolina is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog. We have backed Duke in their last two wins (and covers) against Arkansas and Texas Tech — but I hate this spot for them. I suspect this the game that the enormous pressure this young team has in carrying the legacy of head coach Mike Krzyzewski in his final games before retirement. I heard some pundits comment that the pressure was higher in their final home game at Cameroon Indoor against this Tar Heels team with all the alumni in the house. While I appreciate there was pressure then, to suggest that a regular-season game on the second Saturday in March presented more pressure than a Final Four is ludicrous. And, by the way, this team did not handle that pressure very well in that 94-81 loss. The team trends point to this being a letdown spot for Duke. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least four in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. They have scored at least 78 points in each of their games in the Big Dance — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 75 points in four straight games. The Blue Devils have some issues. They only rank 45th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they fall slightly to 51st in the nation in that metric in their last ten games. It is their half-court defense that is the biggest weakness as their opponents have a 47.0% effective field goal percentage against them, ranking just 48th in the nation. Duke has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament. These teams share more than having campuses within eight miles of each other. The profile of both teams is dynamic offenses with athletes that crash the glass on both ends of the court — and while neither team forces turnovers, they both rank in the top seven in the nation in opponent foul rate. But it is North Carolina that ranks second in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding only 21.2% of their missed shots.
FINAL TAKE: Duke has the revenge angle here from that 13-point loss as an 11-point favorite — but the historical numbers in the NCAA Tournament regarding teams looking to avenge a same-season loss favor the team that won the previous game. Admittedly, that is from a limited sample size over many years — but it suggests that the market might be overvaluing Duke as if the revenge angle means they “really, really” want to win as opposed to just “really” wanting to beat UNC. Furthermore, the Blue Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss where they were favored by at least seven points — including failing to cover the spread in three of those four opportunities this season. Duke has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home under Coach K. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Year with the North Carolina Tar Heels (703) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-31-22 |
Xavier v. Texas A&M -4 |
Top |
73-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (652) minus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (651) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (27-12) has won 11 of their last 12 games with a 72-56 victory against Washington State as a 1.5-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament on Tuesday. Xavier (22-13) has won five of their last six games after their 84-77 upset victory against St. Bonaventure as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Buzz Williams complained loudly about the tragic injustice it was that his Texas A&M team did not get an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament after beating Florida, Auburn, and Arkansas in the SEC Tournament before losing to Tennessee in the championship game. It’s shame this small private school scarping for money can’t catch a break — especially after losing nine of ten games during a midseason slump. No one is feeling sorry for Texas A&M — and often teams that feel robbed from an at-large bid then fall flat in the NIT. Credit goes to Williams for keeping his team focused as they have beaten all four of their opponents in this tournament by at least 12 points. Now with one game away from taking the title, look for another strong effort from the Aggies. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. The calling card for this team is defense — they rank 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while rising 10th in the country in that metric over their last ten games. After limiting the Cougars to just 34.5% shooting on Tuesday, they have held their last five opponents to no better than 39.3% field goal percentage. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing at last three straight opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field. Xavier made 53.1% of their shots in their victory against the Bonnies which was the best shooting mark in their last five games. But the Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Xavier has faced turmoil all season. After an 11-2 start to their Big East campaign, they lost 11 of their next 17 conference games which cost them a spot in the Big Dance. After beating Cleveland State in the first round of the NIT, the program let head coach Travis Steele. Assistant coach Jonas Hayes took over on an interim basis with the university re-hiring Sean Miller after his tumultuous run at Arizona. The team also lost their fifth-year senior point guard Paul Scruggs to a season-ending injury in their second NIT game against Florida. This leaves the Musketeers short-handed with just a six-man rotation. Scruggs was the team’s second-leading scorer averaging 11.7 Points-Per-Game — and he led the team by dishing out 4.1 Assists-Per-Game. He is critical in protecting the basketball against pressure as well — in that game against the Gators where he got injured, Xavier turned the ball over 18 times representing 24.0% of their possessions. Now they face a Texas A&M team that is eighth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.9% of their opponent’s possessions. The Aggies’ depth is also a strength as they rank 23rd in the nation in bench minutes with 11 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game. Williams will be able to throw waves of players and pressure at a Xavier team missing their floor general.
FINAL TAKE: The Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral court. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year is on the Texas A&M Aggies (652) minus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (651). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-30-22 |
Hornets -3 v. Knicks |
Top |
125-114 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (565) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (566). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (39-37) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 113-109 loss to Denver as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. New York (34-42) has won four games in a row with their 109-104 upset victory against Chicago as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS MINUS THE POINTS: Charlotte has been playing well — despite that loss to the Nuggets. They have won seven of their last nine games and appear entrenched to at least qualify for the Play-In games for the postseason as they are in ninth place in the Eastern Conference, trailing the eighth spot by one game. After struggling to replace the injured Gordon Hayward’s contributions, they are getting solid across-the-board play from P.J. Washington. The former Kentucky star is scoring 11.3 Points-Per-Game this month while adding 4.2 Rebounds-Per-Game and 3.1 Assists-Per-Game and making 35.4% of his shots from 3-point range. The Hornets are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. They go back on the road where they are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games — and they had covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games when favored. Furthermore, Charlotte is 27-10-1 ATS in their last 38 road games against teams with a losing record at home. New York is starting to play better now that they have likely buried their shot at making the playoffs. They are 4 1/2 games behind Atlanta for the tenth spot in the Eastern Conference. In their upset victory against the Bulls, they held Chicago to just 43.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games, and tied for the best performance on that end of the court in their last ten contests. But the Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by six points or less. Additionally, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning at least four of their last five games. Injuries remain an issue for this team. They are without Cam Reddish, Derrick Rose, and Kemba Walker with the latter put on the shelf because he does not fit head coach Tom Thibodeau’s plans. Nerlens Noel and Quentin Grimes are both out tonight with injuries — and Evan Fournier is questionable for reasons listed as “personal”. This team is going nowhere this year — and taking some days off down the stretch as they softly tank appears likely. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Charlotte will be motivated to avenge a 121-106 loss at home to the Knicks on March 23rd. The Hornets have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 opportunities for same-season revenge. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Charlotte Hornets (565) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-27-22 |
Miami-FL v. Kansas -6 |
Top |
50-76 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (646) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (645) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Kansas (31-6) has won eight games in a row after their 66-61 victory against Providence as a 7-point favorite on Friday. Miami (FL) (26-10) has won six of their last seven contests with their 70-56 win against Iowa State as a 3.5-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the United Center in Chicago.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas can be a frustrating team to watch — but they have a significant talent edge in this game which should shine through in the end. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after winning at least two in a row without covering the point spread as a favorite. Kansas is playing well on the defensive end of the court. They have not allowed a tournament opponent to make more than 35.6% of their shots after holding the Friars to just 33.8% shooting — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing their last two opponents to shoot better than 37% of their shots. The Jayhawks are a bit better than their metrics suggest now that Remy Martin is healthy again and fully in the mix. He has scored double-digits in five straight games while leading the team with 58 points so far in this tournament. Kansas is efficient on offense as they usually take good shots — they rank fifth in the nation with a 1.27 Points-Per-Possession in Shot Quality. The Jayhawks' big edge in this game is their offensive rebounding. Kansas ranks 35th in the nation by pulling down 33.3% of their missed shots — and the Hurricanes allow their opponents to rebound 30.5% of their missed shots, ranking 271st in the nation. Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a victory by double-digits. They have played three straight Unders — but the Hurricanes have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after playing at least two straight Unders. And while Miami has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. The Hurricanes are a potent offensive team that does not turn the ball over while shooting 55.0% inside the arc. They force turnovers on defense which facilitates their transition offense. But this is not a good defensive team in the half-court. Miami ranks 114th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 283rd in the country with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 52.5%. They allow their opponents to make 52.9% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 299th in the country — and this will likely be the source of their demise against the Jayhawks.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. 25* CBB Elite Eight Game of the Year with the Kansas Jayhawks (646) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (645). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-26-22 |
Portland +4 v. Southern Utah |
Top |
66-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Portland Pilots (883) plus the points versus the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (884) in the Quarterfinals of the Basketball Classic. THE SITUATION: Portland (19-14) has won two of their last three games with their 94-73 win against New Orleans as a 9-point favorite last Saturday. Southern Utah (22-11) has won four of their last five games with their 82-69 upset win at UTEP as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PILOTS PLUS THE POINTS: Portland has the rest advantage with three extra days off than the Thunderbirds — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with five or six days of rest. This Pilots team has been steadily improving all season under first-year head coach Shantay Legans. The former Eastern Washington coach has one of the youngest rosters in the country — but with a handful of international transfers as well as three important cogs to his Eastern Washington team last year, this team has talent. They also play better away from home as they rank 129th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency margin as opposed to their 151st overall ranking in that metric. Portland has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. The Pilots have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Southern Utah nailed 58.2% of their shots against UTEP which was the best shooting effort in their last nine games. They also held the Miners to a 37.5% shooting clip which was the best defensive effort in their last seven contests. But the Thunderbirds have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win. And while they have won four of their last five contests, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after winning four of their last five games. Southern Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They have scored 83 points in their four-point upset win against Kent State in the opening game of this tournament — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. The Thunderbirds have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And while both those games finished Over the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 home games after playing two straight Overs. Southern Utah ranks 179th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they fall to a ranking of just 208th in the country in that metric when playing at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 60 home games when favored including seven of their eleven games at home laying points this season. The strength of this team is protecting their defensive glass as they limit their opponents to pulling down only 22.7% of their missed shots, ranking 16th in the nation. But the Pilots sacrifice offensive rebounding for getting back on defense as they only rebound 24.0% of their misses, ranking 299th in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: Southern Utah won the Big Sky Conference regular-season title last year — but, in hindsight, that accomplishment looks like a fortunate by-product of the instability from a season played during COVID. Portland is on the rise — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Basketball Classic Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Portland Pilots (883) plus the points versus the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (884). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-25-22 |
Providence v. Kansas -6.5 |
Top |
61-66 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:29 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (636) minus the points versus the Providence Friars (635) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Kansas (30-6) has won seven straight games after their 79-72 victory against Creighton as a 12.5-point favorite on Saturday. Providence (30-6) has won six of their last eight games with their 79-51 win against Richmond as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the United Center in Chicago.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Providence ranks as the luckiest team in the nation according to the deeper metrics of Ken Pomeroy. They have an 11-2 record in games decided by five points or less. While I do think that winning close games is not purely an embodiment of chance, I passed on both of the Friars’ first two games in the NCAA Tournament. The analytics indicate that Providence was fortunate in both contests to win the game. The Spiders’ bubble was perhaps destined to explode after pulling off four straight upset victories. Richmond missed 13 of 21 free throws and 21 of their 22 shots from behind the arc in the 28-point loss to the Friars. But the Spiders did make 20 of 31 (64.5%) of their shots inside the arc which is a concern when now playing the Jayhawks. Playing Kansas is a significant step up in class after getting a favorable draw against South Dakota State and Richmond in the first two rounds of the Big Dance. Providence has been exposed this season in a number of their losses. Creighton scored 85 points in a 27-point victory against them in the Big East Tournament. Marquette scored 88 points in a 32-point win against them. Villanova scored 89 points against them. Virginia beat them by 18 points. The Friars ranked just seventh in the Big East in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This is not a great matchup for them either. Providence led the Big East in getting to the free-throw line — and they led the conference by making 37.6% of their 3-pointers. But the Jayhawks were second in the Big 12 in defensive free throw rate while leading the conference by holding their opponents to just 27.5% shooting from behind the arc. They are not likely to make 51.9% of their shots again tonight as they did against Richmond which was the best shooting mark in their last 15 games. While they ranked 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 54th in the nation in that offensive metric when playing away from home. Kansas only made 40.9% of their shots in their victory against the Bluejays which was the lowest shooting mark in their last five games. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning at least seven games in a row. This Jayhawks team continues to improve on the defensive end of the court. After holding Texas Southern to just 32.8% shooting, they held Creighton to a 35.6% field goal percentage. Kansas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing their last two opponents to make more than 37% of their shots. When playing on the road, the Jayhawks rank second in the nation in Adjusted Offense Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral court. Providence has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog. The Friars have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year with the Kansas Jayhawks (636) minus the points versus the Providence Friars (635). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-24-22 |
Houston v. Arizona -1 |
Top |
72-60 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 9:59 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona Wildcats (624) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (623) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Arizona (33-3) has won eight straight games after their 85-80 win in overtime versus TCU as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday. Houston (31-5) has won five in a row and 11 of their last 12 with their 68-53 victory against Illinois as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINT(S): Of course, it is true that Houston was underseeded by the NCAA Tournament committee. And not only is head coach Kelvin Sampson one of the best in the business but he has perhaps enjoyed his finest coaching season by recovering from early season injuries to Marcus Passer and Tramon Mark to have his team in the Sweet 16. But the seeding mistakes are corrected by the point spread. And while I know that the Cougars’ efficiency numbers place them as the second-best team in the nation using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics, this remains a team that is greater than the sum of its part. Credit Sampson for that — but when they face elite competition, Houston tends to hit their head on the ceiling. After reaching the Final Four last season, the Cougars lost by a 78-59 score to a Baylor team loaded with talent. The previous time they played a team ranked in Pomeroy’s top ten was in 2019 in the Sweet 16 of that Big Dance — and they lost 62-58. And while the American Athletic Conference features good teams but not a ton of NBA talent, the lone exception to that situation has been Penny Hardaway’s Memphis squad — and the Tigers handed Houston two of their five losses. Sticking with Pomeroy, the best win the Cougars have this season was on Sunday in their victory against the Illini -- a team with an NBA player in Kofi Cockburn but who has otherwise been inconsistent and disappointing. This Arizona team is not only the most talented group that Houston will have played all season — but they are probably better than that P.J. Washington and Tyler Herro Kentucky team from three years ago who lost in the Elite Eight to Auburn. The Cougars stifled Illinois to just 34.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Sampson out-coached Brad Underwood (and I incorrectly took the Illini to cover). But eventually, coaches cannot outscheme talent — and this Arizona team is seventh in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Also note that while Houston ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, that number drops to 33rd in the nation when they play on the road where they allow almost 10 more points per 100 possessions (based on adjusted numbers). And while the Cougars have covered the point spread in five straight games and nine of their last ten games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in eight or more of their last ten games. Arizona only made 45.6% of their shots against the Horned Frogs which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They made only 5 of their 27 shots (18.5%) from behind the arc. Point guard Kerr Kriisa struggled in his return to the court after not playing in their opening-round win against Wright State — he missed nine of his ten shots from behind the arc. But he did play 27 minutes and have a positive +/- number while quarterbacking the team. Furthermore, the Wildcats held TCU to just 35.1% shooting after limiting the Raiders to 34.8% shooting in the opening round of this tournament. Arizona got a scare — but that experience should sharpen them for this showdown. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games (including their last four this season) after not making at least 20% of their shots from 3-point range in their last game. TCU dominated Arizona in the offensive glass by pulling down 20 boards — that kept the Horned Frogs in the game. Houston is also one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation — but the Wildcats have a size edge. The Cougars’ success getting second-chance opportunities speaks to their schemes and ambition to get offensive rebounds rather than NBA talent. Memphis’ size gave Houston problems — and I expect Arizona’s side edge to do the same with head coach Tommy Lloyd having a few days to work on this concern. The Wildcats beat one of the tallest teams in the nation in USC by 20 and nine points respectively this year. And Lloyd can play some very tall lineups by giving more minutes to the 7’0 Oumar Ballo along with regulars in the 6’11 Azuolas Tubelis and the 7’1 Christian Koloko. Arizona has been more effective playing away from home where they rank fifth in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency as compared to their ranking of 11th in the country in that metric when playing at home. They have covered the point spread 7 of their last 8 games on the road when playing their third game in seven days. They have covered the point spread 13 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: Houston allows only 59.0 Points-Per-Game this season — but Arizona has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who do not allow more than 64.0 PPG. 25* CBB Thursday Television Game of the Year with the Arizona Wildcats (624) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (623). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-24-22 |
Arkansas v. Gonzaga -9.5 |
Top |
74-68 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:09 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (628) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (627) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Gonzaga (283) is on a four-game winning streak after outlasting Memphis by an 82-78 score as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. Arkansas (27-8) has won eight of their last ten games after their 53-48 victory against New Mexico State as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Chase Center in San Francisco.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Gonzaga got a scare against a talented Tigers’ team as they had to rally from a double-digit halftime deficit to advance to the Sweet 16. There were times in both that game and their opening-round victory against Georgia State where Drew Timme simply took over. He scored 57 points while grabbing 27 rebounds in the two games last week. Memphis was ranked in the top ten in a few power rankings since February — Gonzaga beat one of the best teams in the country that was playing much better when finally healthy. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a victory there they did not cover the point spread. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning at least four games in a row. And while Gonzaga has only covered the point spread twice in their last eight games, they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after not covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Bulldogs have scored at least 81 points in their last four games since their loss to Saint Mary’s — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 80 points in four straight games. Gonzaga is the best scoring team in the nation — they lead in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency along with their effective field goal percentage of 59.3% and their 61.0% shooting clip inside the arc. They are also second in the country by averaging only 14.6 seconds per possession — and their fast pace will make it easier for them to cover a point spread in the 10-point range. The Bulldogs also sport the ninth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while leading the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 43.0%. Arkansas made only 27.5% of their shots in their victory against the Aggies which is why they did not cover the 6.5-point spread despite holding New Mexico State to 48 points. This lack of scoring punch is a big problem — they are only making 38.7% of their shots in their last five games while not making more than 43.4% of their shots over that span which is why they are scoring just 69.0 PPG during that span. In theory, the Razorbacks are at their most dangerous if J.D. Notae can put them on his back. In practice as of late, the senior guard is slumping. He has not scored more than 19 points in four postseason games starting with the SEC Tournament. He has made only 25 of his last 88 shots (31.8%) in his last six contests. And he has not made more than two shots from behind the arc since February 19th. Furthermore, after collecting nine personal fouls in the first two rounds of the tournament, he is at risk of drawing fouls against the Bulldogs — and head coach Eric Musselman is dogmatic about not keeping a player on the floor before halftime if he collects two personal fouls in the first half. Arkansas has a short bench that gets into trouble if Notae and Jaylin Williams are not playing together at the same time. If the Razorbacks fall behind, they are not likely to shoot themselves back in the game because they only make 30.5% of their 3-pointers, ranking 314th in the nation. The Arkansas formula for success is forcing turnovers — they rank 58th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.5% of their opponent’s possessions — and getting to the free-throw line where they rank 15th in the country in free throw rate. But the Bulldogs rank 22nd in the nation defensive free throw rate -- and they are 29th in the country by turning the ball over in just 15.5% of their possessions. The Razorbacks may be too small to hang with Gonzaga as well — they rank 209th in team size while the Bulldogs are seventh in that metric. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games played on a neutral court with the Total in the 150s. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the Big Dance.
FINAL TAKE: Arkansas will engage in the pace Gonzaga wants to play — they rank 45th in the nation by averaging 16.4 seconds per possession while ranking 52nd in the country with their opponents ranking 17.0 seconds per possession. Look for Gonzaga to pull away and cover the point spread in this one. 10* CBB Arkansas-Gonzaga CBS-TV Special with the Gonzaga Bulldogs (628) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (627). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-23-22 |
Hawks v. Pistons +5 |
Top |
101-122 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (546) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (545). THE SITUATION: Detroit (19-53) has lost six of their last seven games with their 119-115 upset loss to Portland as a 10-point favorite on Monday. Atlanta (36-36) comes off a 117-111 win in New York last night against the Knicks as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PISTONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit may be eliminated from the playoff race in the Eastern Conference — but they have been playing better basketball as of late with the continued development of Cade Cunningham. The number one pick in the 2021 NBA draft had a loss start to the season after a late start to training camp after a delay in signing in his contract. Some injuries in the fall then impacted his adjustment to the challenge of the NBA — but the former Oklahoma State star is finding his groove. Cunningham is scoring 22.4 Points-Per-Game this month while pulling down 7.3 Rebounds-Per-Game and dishing out 6.9 Assists-Per-Game. Their loss to the Trail Blazers was their second-straight game and third of their last four that was decided by four points or less — so this team has usually been competitive in their losses. The Pistons made only 42.4% of their shots on Monday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. But Detroit has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. The Pistons have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games in March. Atlanta has been consistently inconsistent all season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. The Hawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played without a day of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road when playing their second game in back-to-back days. Atlanta will play this game undermanned with John Collins out with a foot injury and Lou Williams likely not playing because of personal reasons. The Hawks stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Detroit won the last meeting between these two teams on March 7th by a 113-110 score in overtime as a 7.5-point home underdog. Cunningham starred in that game by scoring 28 points for the Pistons in the win while adding 10 rebounds. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings against Detroit. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Underdog of the Month with the Detroit Pistons (546) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (545). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-22-22 |
Vanderbilt +2.5 v. Xavier |
Top |
73-75 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Vanderbilt Commodores (611) plus the point versus the Xavier Musketeers (612) in the Quarterfinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Vanderbilt (19-16) has won two in a row and five of their last six contests with their 70-68 victory against Dayton in overtime as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Xavier (20-13) has won three of their last four games after their 72-56 victory against Florida as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMODORES PLUS THE POINTS: Vanderbilt beat the Flyers despite only making 37.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. The Commodores have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. Vanderbilt ranks ninth in the nation in getting to the free-throw line — and they are 38th in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have wins against Arkansas, Alabama, and LSU who all made the NCAA Tournament. Vanderbilt is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Xavier held the Gators to just 32.8% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 24 games. The Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Xavier ranked just sixth in the Big East in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 51.6% was 10th in the conference. They host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Xavier may be without their second-leading scorer Paul Scruggs who injured his knee in the game against Florida. The Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when favored. Vanderbilt has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Game of the Year on the Vanderbilt Commodores (611) plus the point versus the Xavier Musketeers (612). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-22-22 |
Bulls v. Bucks -7.5 |
Top |
98-126 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (541). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (44-27) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 138-119 loss at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Chicago (42-29) ended their three-game losing streak with a 113-99 win against Toronto as a 4-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee allowed the Timberwolves to make 51.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Bucks should bounce back with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored. Chicago made 48.9% of their shots in their victory against the Raptors yesterday which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. They also held Toronto to 44.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four contests. The Bulls are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 23 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 24 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee will be without Khris Middleton tonight as he nurses an ankle injury — but the Bulls are undermanned in this contest as well. Lonzo Ball remains out and Zach LaVine is questionable with a knee injury. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. 25* NBA Central Division Game of the Month is on Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-20-22 |
Texas +3.5 v. Purdue |
Top |
71-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (819) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (820) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas (22-11) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 81-73 victory against Virginia Tech as a 1.5-point favorite on Friday. Purdue (28-7) has won four of their last five games with their 78-56 victory against Yale as a 16.5-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: In this battle of elite defense versus elite offense, I give the decided edge to the Texas defense. First-year head coach Chris Beard’s “no middle” schemes are aggressive in attacking the ball in the post to force perimeter or bad-angle side looks to the basket. His Texas Tech teams were outstanding in coaxing their opponents into taking bad shots. The Longhorns team he has assembled in Austin has warmed to his scheme as they rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and I expect Beard’s bunch to play their best defense of the season in the NCAA Tournament. The challenge is stiff against this Boilermakers team that ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But Purdue’s strength is in the interior with their twin towers of Trevion Williams and Zach Edey. But Texas ranks in the top-20 in defense at the rim and in the top-10 in post-up defense — so they should have success in getting Purdue to rely on their outside shooting. The Boilermakers still have an outstanding player maker and scorer in Jaden Ivey — but that is where the Longhorns’ Courtney Ramey enters the picture. Ramey is an outstanding defender who stymied Kansas’ Ochai Agbaji in two regular-season contests. Not only did Agbaji endure his two fewest-shot attempt games against Texas but he only had one field goal in the final regular-season game with Ramey hounding him. Texas’ issues have been on the other end of the court — but they were impressive against a red hot Virginia Tech team on Friday. The Longhorns scored at a 1.19 Points-Per-Possession rate while making 10 shots from behind the arc. Texas may prove to be a better offensive team than their numbers suggest now that they are outside the Big 12 competition that boasts stout defensive clubs like Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech, and TCU. The Longhorns had failed to cover the point spread in four straight games before beating the Hokies (and six of seven) — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Furthermore, Texas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with one day of rest — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing their second game on the road in three days. Purdue held Yale to just a 36.5% shooting percentage in their win on Friday — that was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. But the Boilermakers are not a great defensive team as they rank 90th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This is the weak link for them in this contest. Purdue is outside the top-100 in protecting the rim — and the Longhorns are seventh in the nation in shot attempts at the rim. Texas has struggled to score baskets against teams who force turnovers — but that is not the Boilermakers who rank 346th in the nation by forcing turnovers in just 14.2% of their opponent’s possessions. Additionally, the potent Purdue offense is not quite as dynamic when playing away from West Lafayette. While the Boilermakers lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home, they drop to fifth in the country when playing on the road. That’s still pretty good — but while they make 40.5% of their shots from behind the arc at home, that mark drops to a 37.1% clip when playing away from home. Purdue is 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after winning four or five of their last six games. And while Purdue had gone seven straight games without covering the point spread before playing Yale, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games.
FINAL TAKE: The Boilermakers are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 games when favored. Texas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing on the neutral court as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in tournament settings including three of their four tourney games this season under Beard. 25* CBB Round of 32 Game of the Year with the Texas Longhorns (819) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (820). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-19-22 |
New Mexico State v. Arkansas -6.5 |
Top |
48-53 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (786) minus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (785) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Arkansas (26-8) has won two of their last three games with their 75-71 victory against Vermont as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday. New Mexico State (27-6) won their fourth straight game with their 70-63 upset win against Connecticut as a 6-point underdog on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAZORBACKS MINUS THE POINTS: New Mexico State nailed 11 of their 17 shots from behind the arc against the Huskies to trigger that upset victory — that was the best shooting mark from 3-point range all season. History is not likely to repeat itself tonight given that this Aggies team only makes 33.8% of their 3-pointers, ranking 173rd in the nation. New Mexico State has now covered the point spread in four straight games — but they may be due for an emotional letdown now. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in four straight contests. New Mexico State held UConn to just 22 first-half points after limiting Abilene Christian to just 21 first-half points in the WAC Tournament Championship Game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after not scoring more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. This Aggies’ team is solid and consistent — but they do not have the characteristics to produce variable events that can overcome the talent gap they will face tonight (unless they make 65% of their 3-pointers again — the 3-point shot is the great equalizer which can be very frustrating for us, in the short-term). The strength of this team is their rebounding — and they will impede the Razorbacks’ ambitions for second-chance points. But while New Mexico State is 41st in the nation by pulling down 33% of their misses, Arkansas holds their opponents to rebounding only 25.5% of their missed shots. The Aggies defense was much better at home in Las Cruces where they ranked 53rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they plummet to just 126th ranking in that metric when playing on the road. New Mexico State is much too loose with the basketball as they turn the ball over in 20.6% of their possessions, ranking 309th in the nation. Away from home, it is even worse as they lose possession 21.2% of the time. These bigger underdogs are more likely to pull upsets and cover point spreads when they can slow the pace of the game. The Aggies’ turnover problem works against this ambition — and the Razorbacks want to push the pace as they average 70.6 possessions per game, ranking 28th in the nation. Arkansas is a rock-solid -- ranking 20th in the nation at KenPom while registering wins against Tennessee, Auburn, Kentucky while sweeping all three against LSU. The Razorbacks rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. New Mexico State scores most of their points inside the arc — but Arkansas ranks 47th in the nation by holding their opponents to 46.5% shooting on their 2-point shots with that mark lowering to a 45.2% clip against SEC opponents. The Razorbacks also rank 18th in the nation in free throw rate — and they make 75.5% of their freebies so they should pull away late. This team’s biggest problem is they foul too much — but the Aggies were 11th in the WAC by making only 66.2% of their shots at the charity stripe. They should build off the momentum of their win on Thursday as they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a point spread loss.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first time New Mexico State is playing in the second round of the Big Dance in their last 12 appearances in this tournament. They have still failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in the NCAA Tournament. Arkansas is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Round of 32 Blowout Game of the Year is on the Arkansas Razorbacks (786) minus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (785). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-18-22 |
Colgate v. Wisconsin -7.5 |
Top |
60-67 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 9:50 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (762) minus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (761) in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (24-7) limps into the NCAA Tournament with two straight losses after their 69-63 upset loss to Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament as a 3.5-point favorite last Friday. Colgate (23-11) has won 15 games in a row after their 74-58 victory against Navy as a 7-point favorite to claim the Patriot League Tournament title back on March 9th. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin has been upset in two straight games — after previously riding a five-game winning streak. An ankle injury to Johnny Davis in their regular-season finale setback to Nebraska played a big role in those losses. Davis has not been at 100% — but I am betting (literally) that the week off will have him in better shape for this one tonight. And the Badgers are still the Badgers — a solid team with a reliable system under head coach Greg Gard. What potentially makes this group special is Davis is an All-American talent. Critics point to Wisconsin’s 12-2 record in games decided by five points or less to suggest that the Badgers are overrated. These observers are confusing seed value with point spread value. If you are going to invoke that the Ken Pomeroy metrics indicate that the Badgers were the seventh luckiest team in the nation, you might want to also mention that his same metrics predict Wisconsin as a 7-point winner in this one. So, the line is not off (unless you think a 0.5 to 1.0 difference is offering an actionable edge — I don’t). But I take the Pomeroy analytics with a grain or two of salt because they do not account for home/road splits. In another power rankings system I use, while the Badgers rank 31st in the nation overall, they rise to 14th in the country when evaluating play on the road or neutral courts. Wisconsin thrives away from home because their overall Adjusted Defensive Efficiency ranking 33rd in the country rises to a ranking of the 13th when evaluating road and neutral court play only. After only making 36.7% of their shots against Sparty last week — the worst shooting effort in their last 21 games — they should hit more shots tonight. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after losing two in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after losing two in a row by six points or less. Wisconsin has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Colgate covered the point spread in all three of their Patriot League Tournament games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering three in a row as a favorite. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three games in a row. The Raiders have become the cream of the crop in the Patriot League with a 54-12 mark in conference play in the last three seasons. But their most challenging contests this season were against St. John’s and Vermont which Pomeroy ranks as the 59th and 56th best teams in the country. Colgate lost by 18 points to the Red Storm and by 10 points to the Catamounts. By the way, Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin as the 32nd best team in the nation ever after their luck-tainted analytics. The Raiders are the prototype School Yard Bully whose style helps them bully lesser opponents before they cower in fear against stiffer competition. They don’t force turnovers (16.2%, 297th) or crash the glass (26.5%, 276th). Plan A to pull an upset is to nail their 3s. They shoot from behind the arc in 42% of their shot attempts — and they do nail 40% of them. But, while making 41.4% of their bombs when playing in their familiar gym, their 3-point shooting drops to 38.9% when away from home. That is still a good mark — but it is moving away from elite — and now they are facing a Badgers’ defense predicated on stopping 3-point shooting. Wisconsin ranks 59th in the country in limiting shots from behind the arc — and their opponents make just 32.3% of these shots. Their opponents generate just 27.8% of their points against Wisconsin from behind the arc, the 299th lowest mark in the country. Gard’s teams make it tough to beat the Badgers with a barrage of 3-pointers — and this Colgate team lacks a Plan B if Plan A fails. Finally, the Raiders’ play on defense is below average. They rank 198th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they plummet to 283rd in the country in that metric when they play away from home (and this highlights my biggest disagreement with the Pomeroy/Vegas point spread projection). Even worse, Colgate ranks 202nd in defending ball screens and they struggle against isolation — and these offensive tactics are the bread and butter of this Wisconsin team with Davis.
FINAL TAKE: Colgate has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams outside the Patriot League. Wisconsin is 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 games in the Big Dance — and playing down the street in Milwaukee sure doesn’t hurt. 25* CBB Round of 64 Game of the Year is on the Wisconsin Badgers (762) minus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (761). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-17-22 |
San Francisco +2.5 v. Murray State |
Top |
87-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Francisco Dons (731) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (732) in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (24-9) was eliminated in the West Coast Conference Tournament in an 81-71 loss to Gonzaga as a 14-point underdog on March 7th. Murray State (30-2) has won 20 straight games after winning the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament with a 71-67 victory against Morehead State as a 7.5-point favorite on March 5th. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DONS PLUS THE POINTS: San Francisco should be rested and ready for this contest. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a conference loss. The Dons are in a great situation against the Racers — but the initial challenge in assessing this game is determining the extent of the impact of them being without their 6’9 starting center Yauhen Massalski who was declared out tonight with a knee injury. For starters, San Francisco was without him for the game against Gonzaga — and that was the closest margin of victory for the number one ranked Bulldogs all season. Head coach Todd Golden has another reliable big man getting minutes in 6’9 Patrick Tape. Golden desperately needed size for this year’s team so he brought in both Massalski from San Diego and Tape from Duke. Tape was a three-year starter at Columbia where he scored 11.3 Points-Per-Game and pulled down 5.9 Rebounds-Per-Game before drawing the attention of Mike Krzyzewski, which is not too shabby. Massalski is the better offensive player — but Tape has been in the rotation all season and is capable and experienced. The cogs to the Dons’ offense remain guards Jamaree Bouyea and Khalil Shabazz. The scoring loss from Massalski’s absence should be covered by the emerging wing Julian Rishwain. The former Boston College transfer has scored at least 13 points in four of his last five games — and he netted 20 points against Gonzaga. Golden gets the most of his team’s talent by deploying analytics — this is a team that takes 44.4% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 38th in the nation or they look for shots near the basket. The defense ranks 21st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 44th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Dons do a solid job of generating additional scoring opportunities as they rank in the top-150 in both forcing turnovers and offensive rebounding. What is intriguing about San Francisco is that while they rank 21st in the nation in one of the power ranking systems I use, they rise to 13th best in the country when playing away from home on neutral courts and true road environments using those metrics. They rank sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road while holding their opponents to 27.8% shooting from behind the arc, ranking seventh in the nation. This package helps explain why the Dons have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in tournament settings. After dominating the regular season and conference tournament, the bubble may be ready to burst for Murray State as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games on the road after a win. Furthermore, the Racers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after winning at least 15 of their last 20 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after winning at least five games in a row. I avoided betting against this team during the Ohio Valley Conference season for good reason — but I have noted that only two of their 30 victories were against teams that made the Big Dance. Murray State beat UT-Chattanooga — and their victory against Memphis was when the Tigers were imploding while playing undermanned. This is a young roster that has been untested when compared to the Dons who are a veteran team who played in a very competitive West Coast Conference. The Racers have great analytics — but we need to take them with a grain of salt given the teams they played. And San Francisco matches up well. Murray State ranks 11th in the nation in offensive rebounding — but the Dons are 33rd in the country by holding their opponents to just a 23.8% defensive rebounding rate. The Racers rank 28th in the nation in forcing turnovers — but San Fran only turned the ball over in 15.4% of their possessions in conference play. And I know Murray State ranks 25th in the country by holding their opponents to just a 30.1% shooting percentage from behind the arc — but let’s dig deeper. The Racers rank only 116th in the country in allowing open 3s and they are 118th in the nation in opponents' shots at either the rim or behind the arc — so they may be due a visit from the Regression Gods when it comes to opponent 3-point conversion rates. Murray State also only makes 69.2% of their free throws, ranking 267th in the nation — and we watched Notre Dame almost give away their game with Rutgers last night from misses at the charity stripe. Most importantly, the Racers put up their best numbers at home where they ranked 19th in the nation according to the power rankings system referenced earlier. But their ranking drops to 61st in the nation when they are playing away from home with their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at 74th and their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at 52nd. They make 44.3% of their shots away from home which generates 71.5 PPG which is 7.8 PPG below their season average. Tellingly, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court when the Total is in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: We are getting point spread value in this game with the public already disrespecting the Dons because they were on the wrong side of the bubble for many NCAA Tournament projection systems — and now add on the injury to Massalski. Injuries tend to be overestimated — especially in the short-term — vis-a-vis point spread aspirations. San Fran has talent and depth still that will be motivated to step up in his absence. I like Murray State — and I wish they were playing as an underdog against a bloated power conference foe. Instead, they face another mid-major upstart — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. 25* CBB Round of 64 Underdog of the Year with the San Francisco Dons (731) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (732). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-16-22 |
Notre Dame v. Rutgers |
Top |
89-87 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (695) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (696) in the First Four Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (22-10) enters the Big Dance after losing in their first game in the ACC Tournament to Virginia by an 87-80 score in a pick ‘em matchup last Thursday. Rutgers (18-13) lost their opening game in the Big Ten after getting a double-bye into the quarterfinals in an 87-74 loss to Iowa as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Notre Dame has been the more consistent team this season — and their style of play is better situated to pull-out single-elimination contests. Head coach Mike Brey’s team should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after playing a game where both teams scored at least 80 points. Despite the early loss in the ACC Tournament, the Irish come into this game nailing 49.3% of their shots in their last five games which is generating 79.4 Points-Per-Game — and they have held these last five opponents to just 42.4% shooting from the field. Brey’s teams are usually efficient on the offensive end of the court. This Notre Dame team ranks 30th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and that mark rises to 29th in the country when they are playing away from South Bend. The Irish play at a slow pace but get the most out of their possessions — they are 28th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 15.5% of their possessions. They nail their 3s — they rank 18th in the nation by making 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc with that mark rising to a 39.6% clip in conference play. Their defense is solid with them doing a few things quite well. They limit their opponents to pulling down just 24.1% of their missed shots, ranking 39th in the nation. They have the 22nd lowest opponent free throw rate in the country. They were second in the ACC by holding their opponents to just a 29.6% shooting percentage from behind the arc. Overall, the Fighting Irish were second in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking third with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.9%. Some may quibble with their resume — their best victory was against a Kentucky team still finding their identity in December. They have a 4-9 record in their 13 contests against Q1 and Q2 teams. But they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Rutgers befuddles some observers because of their inconsistency this season. They went through a stretch in mid-February where they upset four-ranked teams in a row in Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Illinois. Yet they got upset by DePaul, UMass, and Lafayette (on their home court). I am not as puzzled by Rutgers — they play a high-floor but low-ceiling style of play that is much more effective when playing at home. They have a go-to scorer in Ron Harper, Jr. and they rank 42nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UConn won a National Championship with Kemba Walker with a star player and great defense. But that Huskies team did several other things pretty — like crash the glass. These Scarlet Knights don’t. They rank outside the top-100 in 3-point shooting, offensive rebounding, forcing turnovers, and free-throw rate. Plan-A is to make their shots while playing great defense. There is no Plan-B since they don’t create additional scoring possessions or steal points by making 3s or even make freebies at the charity stripe. They are a jump-shooting team — and these are the teams that go to die in the Big Dance. They rank 33rd in the nation in most mid-range jumpers — yet they rank in just 218th in the nation in making these shots. Big Ten teams usually play man-to-man defense — but they played zone against this team and Rutgers only scored at a .858 Points-Per-Possession rate against zone defense which was in the lowest-24th percentile. Now here comes this Irish team that plays plenty of zone defense to compensate for their lack of size and short bench. This is a bad matchup for the Knights. They rank 108th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — making only 33.6% of their 3-pointers and 49.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 181st and 203rd in the nation respectively. And their best defensive efforts have been on their home court. While they ranked 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, that defensive plummets to a 149th in the country slot when they are playing away from home. On the road, opponents make 34.4% of their 3-pointers and 52.4% of their 2-pointers, ranking 199th and 227th in the nation. Notre Dame should hit enough 3s to pull away in this game.
FINAL TAKE: Rutgers has the impressive five wins against Q1A teams this season — but they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (695) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (696). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-13-22 |
Iowa +2.5 v. Purdue |
Top |
75-66 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (651) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (652) in the Championship Game of the Big Ten Tournament. THE SITUATION: Iowa (25-9) has won two straight games and seven of their last eight after their 84-74 victory against Rutgers as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (27-6) has won two straight and five of their last seven with their 69-61 victory against Penn State yesterday as a 10.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa should build off their momentum this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Hawkeyes’ offense is clicking — they are scoring making 49.2% of their shots in their last five games which are generating 86.4 Points-Per-Game. Iowa ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they lead the nation in that metric when playing on the road. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. They are also 16-7-2 ATS in their last 25 games played on a neutral court. Purdue held the Nittany Lions to just 40.7% shooting yesterday which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. But the Boilermakers are 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with one day or less of rest. The Boilermakers have not covered the point spread in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not covering the point spread in at least two games in a row. Purdue leads the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but there is a drop-off when are away from West Lafayette as they fall to fourth in the country in that metric when playing on the road. The Boilermakers are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games when favored — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing a team that is winning at least 60% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Purdue swept the two regular-season games against Iowa after beating them by an 83-73 score on January 27th. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 opportunities for same-season revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with double-revenge. 25* CBB Big Ten Conference Tournament Game of the Year with the Iowa Hawkeyes (651) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (652). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-12-22 |
Louisiana Tech +3.5 v. UAB |
Top |
73-82 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (635) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (636) in the Championship Game of the Conference USA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (24-9) reached the finals of this tournament with their 42-36 upset win against North Texas as a 4-point underdog yesterday. UAB (26-7) joined them in the Championship Game with their 102-98 victory in overtime against Middle Tennessee State as a 7-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Ford Center in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisiana Tech ground out a slugfest yesterday afternoon with both teams weary after playing the previous night. The Bulldogs held the Mean Green to just 24.1% shooting in the win. Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 50 points in their last contest. Louisiana Tech has won six of their last eight games — and they have covered the point spread in three straight contests. They should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning at least three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Bulldogs are effective on the defensive end of the court where they rank second in Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They lead the conference by holding their opponents to just 46.0% shooting inside the arc. This team also ranks second in the conference by making 52.1% of their shots inside the arc when on the road — and the Blazers allow their conference opponents to make 55.4% of their 2-pointers when they are playing on the road, ranking 12th in Conference USA. Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games with the Total set in the 130s — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral court. UAB is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. The Blazers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing with one day or less of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning at least four games in a row. And while UAB has scored at least 80 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 80 points in at least two straight games. The Blazers thrive in protecting their defensive glass — they hold their Conference USA opponents to rebounding just 24.1% of their missed shots. But this will not be much of a net advantage tonight against this Bulldogs team that sacrifices offensive rebounding for getting back on defense to defend against potential fast breaks. UAB also is 11th in the conference in putting their opponents on the free-throw line. The Blazers had a short turnaround yesterday afternoon after playing Thursday night -- so the extra overtime they endured will not help them tonight.
FINAL TAKE: UAB swept the two regular-season games this season after beating the Bulldogs by an 87-74 sore on March 5th — but Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities for revenge when they allowed at least 75 points in the loss. 25* CBB Conference USA Tournament Game of the Year with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (635) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-12-22 |
Memphis -4.5 v. SMU |
Top |
70-63 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (619) minus the points versus SMU (620) in the Semifinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Memphis (20-9) has won five straight games and 11 of their last 12 after their 85-69 victory against Central Florida as a 9.5-point favorite yesterday. SMU (23-7) has won three in a row and five of their last six after their 83-58 win against Tulsa as a 9.5-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Penny Hardaway bickered with the media earlier this season when his team was struggling — and he was adamant that his group should not be judged too harshly until they got back to full health. Cut to March — and the Tigers are playing some of the best basketball in the country. Over their last ten games, Memphis ranks third in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. Hardaway has his team generate extra scoring possessions by crashing the offensive glass and forcing turnovers on defense. The Tigers force turnovers in 21.2% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 35th in the nation. They pull down 37.4% of their missed shots, ranking fifth in the country — and that mark has risen to a 38.2% rebounding clip in their last ten games which is the top mark in the nation during that span. But what makes this Memphis so tough to beat now is that are taking better advantage of their scoring opportunities. The Tigers are nailing 37.8% of their shots behind the arc in their last ten games. In their last five games, they are nailing 49.3% of their shots which is generating 78.4 Points-Per-Game. They are holding their opponents to 39.2% shooting in their last five games which is translating into 63.0 PPG. Memphis ranks 24th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have improved to 13th in the country in that metric in their last ten games. They should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 after a point spread victory. And while the Tigers have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in four of their five games. Memphis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court. SMU held the Golden Hurricane to just 33.3% shooting yesterday which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. For the second straight game, the Mustangs made 13 shots from 3-point land — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after making at least ten shots from downtown in two straight games. SMU is also 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Tigers have held their last ten opponents to just 29.9% shooting from 3-point range. SMU makes 38.4% of their 3-pointers when playing at home — but their percentage drops to 34.7% when playing away from home. The Mustangs are also vulnerable against teams who crash the glass — they allow their opponents to pull down 33.0% of their missed shots when playing on the road, ranking 318th in the nation. SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog. And in their last 6 games in a tournament setting, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: SMU upset Memphis in their two regular-season games — and their 73-57 victory against them on February 20th was the only loss for the Tigers since January 20th. Memphis has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games when avenging a loss. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Memphis Tigers (619) minus the points versus SMU (620). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-11-22 |
Portland State +4.5 v. Northern Colorado |
Top |
79-86 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Portland State Vikings (873) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (874) in the Semifinals of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Portland State (14-16) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven after their 77-65 upset win against Southern Utah as a 6-point underdog yesterday. Northern Colorado (19-14) won their third game in their last four with their 68-67 victory against Eastern Washington as a 4-point favorite last night. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Idaho Central Arena in Boise, Idaho.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: I think we catching a much-improved team that is still beneath the radar of the betting market. First-year head coach Jase Coburn assembled the proverbial Island of Misfit Toys of castoffs from other conferences — but with six former Division I players coming in, this Portland State team has tons of talent for a Big Sky team. After a rocky start, the Vikings are putting it together late with 10 wins in their last 13 games. The biggest improvement has been on defense where they have held their last five opponents to 40.3% shooting which is resulting in 67.4 Points-Per-Game which is -4.3 PPG below their season average. Portland State is also making 45.5% of their shots over that span, a few notches above their 43.3% field goal percentage for the season. They were feeling it last night by nailing 51.9% of their shots at the Idaho Central Arena — so they will be comfortable playing in this gym. They also held Southern Utah to just 36.8% shooting. This good play should carry over as Portland State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset victory. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games playing away from home when playing without a day of rest. The Vikings will deploy one of the most effective full-court presses in the nation tonight. They rank 15th in the nation by forcing 23.2% of their opponent’s possessions — and they rank second in the country in their last ten games by forcing turnovers in 26.8% of their opponent’s possessions. This ability to force turnovers travels — Portland State ranks 11th in the nation in the net improvement they see in their play when on the road. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog including seven of these last nine occasions. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games played on a neutral court. Northern Colorado only made 11 of their 33 shots from inside the arc yesterday — but they bailed themselves out by nailing 13 of their 31 shots from 3-point range for a 41.9% clip. But the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they made at least 13 shots from behind the arc. Northern Colorado was also very fortunate that Eastern Washington made only 43.3% of their shots which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last ten games. The Bears can shoot the basketball — but they can’t defend. They rank 331st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they were tenth in the defensively-challenged Big Sky Conference. They allow their conference opponents to make 39.3% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 11th in the Big Sky. Their last five opponents have shot 49.7% from the field which has resulted in 79.8 PPG. Bad defensive teams make unreliable favorites. Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when laying the points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 tournament games.
FINAL TAKE: Portland State swept both regular-season games against the Bears — beating them by a 79-76 score on January 31st before holding them off again three days later in a 106-99 victory. Northern Colorado does not match up well against the Vikings since Portland State’s subpar shooting gets better scoring opportunities against the Bears. The Vikings forego protecting their defensive glass by looking for fast-break scoring opportunities — and Northern Colorado does not crash their offensive glass well as they only pull down 21.4% of their missed shots, ranking 344th in the nation. And the Portland State press was effective in both those earlier meetings as they forced 16 and 19 turnovers accounting for 21.9 and 23.7% of the Bears’ possessions. The Vikings are playing their best basketball of the season and will love the fast pace Northern Colorado embraces. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Tournament Game of the Year with the Portland State Vikings (873) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (874). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-10-22 |
Seton Hall +4.5 v. Connecticut |
Top |
52-62 |
Loss |
-107 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seton Hall Pirates (743) plus the points versus the Connecticut Huskies (744) in the Quarterfinals of the Big East Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (21-9) won their sixth straight game with their 57-53 victory against Georgetown last night as a 9.5-point favorite. Connecticut (22-8) has won six of their last seven with their 75-68 victory against DePaul as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE POINTS: Seton Hall survived a feisty Hoyas team last night that was motivated to pull off the upset of their season to offer some redemption from an otherwise disappointing year. The Pirates were flat to start the game as they found themselves trailing by 10 points with four minutes left in the first half while only scoring 24 points in the first 20 minutes of the game. But now with a game under their belt at Madison Square Garden, look for Seton Hall to play much better against a good Huskies team. The Pirates only made 38.6% of their shots last night which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They did hold Georgetown to just 30.6% shooting as they continued their torrid pace on the defensive end of the court. Seton Hall ranks 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 20th in the country with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.5%. They have held their last five opponents to 39.0% shooting which is resulting in just 61.4 Points-Per-Game. On the road, the Pirates limit their opponents to making only 44.8% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 12th lowest in the nation. They also pull down 34.4% of their missed shots on the road in Big East play, the top mark in the conference. Seton Hall has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court as a dog. Connecticut held the Blue Demons to just 39.4% shooting over the weekend which was the best defensive effort in their last four contests. They out-rebounded DePaul by a 49-31 margin in the win — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after out-rebounding their last opponent by at least 15 boards. The Huskies are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. UConn has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning at least four of their last five contests. The Huskies have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. Sometimes when a team is not covering spreads, it is because they are underachieving relative to their potential. However, point spread losing streaks can also indicate that a team is overrated relative to market expectations — and I think that is the case with UConn. The Huskies only make 48.4% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 230th in the nation. In Big East play, that shooting mark with their 2-pointers drops to 47.7%, the eighth-best in the conference. And when playing on the road, UConn is 318th in the country in putting their opponents on the free-throw line — and Seton Hall makes 76% of their freebies, ranking 39th in the country. The Huskies are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games when favored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two meetings this season — but it will be Seton Hall with the extra motivation of revenge after losing at UConn by a 70-65 score on February 16th. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and the Huskies are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 25* CBB Big East Game of the Year with the Seton Hall Pirates (743) plus the points versus the Connecticut Huskies (744). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-10-22 |
UC-Santa Barbara -2 v. Cal-Irvine |
Top |
78-69 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (793) minus the point(s) versus the UC-Irvine Anteaters (794) in the Quarterfinals of the Big West Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: UC-Santa Barbara (16-10) has won five in a row after their 67-60 victory against Hawai’i as a 7-point favorite last Thursday. UC-Irvine (15-9) has won two of their last three games after their 66-61 victory at Cal-State Bakersfield as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Dollar Loan Center in Henderson, Nevada.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GAUCHOS MINUS THE POINT(S): UC-Santa Barbara comes into the Big West Tournament with momentum. The Gauchos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning at least three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning at least four games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games after winning five or six of their last seven games. UC-Santa Barbara beat the Rainbow Warriors despite allowing them to make 50% of their shots in what was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last 12 games. And while they made 53.1% of their shots, that was the lowest field goal percentage in their last three games. The Gauchos have nailed at least 52.3% of their shots in seven of their last nine games. This is a potent scoring team that ranks 37th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 53.5%. They are 19th in the nation with a 55.4% shooting percentage inside the arc. They also rank 17th in the country in getting to the free-throw line. UC-Santa Barbara maintains their scoring prowess when playing away from home. They led the Big West with an effective field goal percentage of 54.5% when playing away from home in conference play. They also led the conference by making 40.4% of their shots from behind the arc when on the road. The Gauchos have a 5-7 record on the road — but they outscored those opponents. If their shots are not falling, they create additional scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers in 21.1% of their opponent’s possessions in conference play, the second-best mark in the Big West. The Anteaters are loose with the basketball as they rank 317th in the nation in turnover rate — and they were ninth in the Big West by turning the ball over in 22.2% of their possessions. On the road, UC-Irvine’s turnover rate rose to a 23% clip in conference play. UC-Santa Barbara comes into this game rested — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road when playing with five or six days of rest. Additionally, they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 tournament games. UC-Irvine comes into this tournament as the winner in nine of their last eleven games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning at least eight of ten. Their victory against the Roadrunners finished Over the 126.5 point total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They are just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Anteaters play great half-court defense — but they do struggle to score points, especially on the road. They have a 6-8 record on the road while getting outscored by -3.0 Points-Per-Game. They rank ninth in the Big West in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road in conference play — and they make only 41.2% of their shots away from him which translates into just 60.6 PPG. They only make 30.9% of their shots from 3-point range on the road in conference play, ranking ninth in the conference. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: UC-Irvine won the only meeting between these two teams on February 3rd by a 53-52 score. The Anteaters did turn the ball over 20 times in that — representing 32.8% of their possessions. The Gauchos have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 opportunities for same-season revenge. 25* CBB Big West Game of the Year with the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (793) minus the point(s) versus the UC-Irvine Anteaters (794). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-08-22 |
North Dakota State +6.5 v. South Dakota State |
Top |
69-75 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the North Dakota State Bison (621) plus the points versus the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (622) in the Summit League Championship Game. THE SITUATION: North Dakota State (23-9) has won three straight games and nine of their last ten contests with their 92-72 victory against Oral Roberts as a 1-point favorite in the Semifinals of this tournament last night. South Dakota State (29-4) is on a 20-game winning streak after their 83-60 win against South Dakota as a 9-point favorite in the semifinals nightcap last night. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Sanford Premier Center in Sioux Fallas, South Dakota.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BISON PLUS THE POINTS: North Dakota State was feeling it last night with their stroke as they nailed 60.3% of their shots in the win against the Golden Eagles. While I do not expect them to match that performance tonight, it is safe to say that they are comfortable shooting in this gym. The Bison have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after a double-digit win against a Summit League opponent. North Dakota State thrives when playing half-court defense. They lead the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.9%. The Bison lead the Summit in both 3-point and 2-point defense. They hold their conference opponents to 31.7% shooting from behind the mark — and that mark lowers to a 24.9% clip when playing away from home. They also limit their Summit League foes to just 48.1% shooting inside the arc — and that mark drops further to a 46.8% clip when playing away from home. North Dakota State has a 7-2 record away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against Summit League opponents. South Dakota State played one of their best games of the season last night. Their 59.6% field goal percentage was the best shooting mark in their last five contests — and by holding the Coyotes to just 44.6% shooting, they played their best defensive game in their last four contests. South Dakota State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning their last game by 20 or more points. And while the Jackrabbits have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. South Dakota State leads the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 62.6%. But this team is vulnerable against teams who can shoot the basketball because of their play on defense. The Jackrabbits rank 303rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.7% ranks 290th in the country fueled by their opponents nailing 37.4% from behind the arc, ranking 307th in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: South Dakota State swept both games against North Dakota State this season — but both victories were by just four points. The Jackrabbits have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court when favored — and the Bison have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when playing on a neutral field as an underdog. 25* CBB Summit League Game of the Year with the North Dakota State Bison (621) plus the points versus the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (622). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-07-22 |
Santa Clara +5 v. St. Mary's |
Top |
72-75 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Santa Clara Broncos (889) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (890) in the Semifinals of the West Coast Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Saint Mary’s (24-6) is on a four-game winning streak after upsetting Gonzaga by a 67-57 score as a 10.5-point underdog back on February 26th. Santa Clara (21-11) has won three straight games after their 91-67 victory as an 8.5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of this tournament on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Saint Mary’s comes off their biggest win all season — and their biggest victory since 2019 when they upset Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference Tournament Championship Game to clinch their last berth into the NCAA Tournament. An emotional letdown is likely for the Gaels. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win against a West Coast Conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after an upset win by 10 or more points under head coach Randy Bennett. And while Saint Mary’s has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. This did hold the Bulldogs to just 36.7% shooting after holding San Diego to 36.5% shooting in a 60-46 victory two days prior — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after not allowing their last two opponents to shoot better than 37% from the field. The Gaels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two games by 10 or more points. The other troubling aspect for Saint Mary’s tonight is the nine days off since they last played — they could be rusty in this contest, especially when playing on an unfamiliar neutral court. The Gaels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with at least seven days between games. While Saint Mary’s was a perfect 16-0 on their home court, they were only 8-6 in their 14 games away from home where they only made 44.4% of their shots. The Broncos are vulnerable to teams who can make 3s — but the Gaels only make 33.3% of their 3-pointers when playing away from home, ranking 195th in the nation. Saint Mary’s is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on a neutral court — and they are 1-3-1 ATS In their last 5 games played on a neutral court. The Gaels led the West Coast Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.3% of their opponent’s possessions — but Santa Clara protects the basketball as they led the conference by only turning the ball over in 15.1% of their conference possessions played away from home. The Broncos have won eight of their last ten games and 14 of their last 19 contests after overcoming some key absences early in the season. Their 6’9 star forward, Josip Vrankic, missed early games after a case of mono, and center Jaden Bediako missed some time in December leaving the team without depth upfront. But Santa Clara is rolling now with their last six losses all being against the big three in the conference in Gonzaga, San Francisco, and this Saint Mary’s team along with Boise State — all four of these teams rank 27 or better in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings and will all be in the big dance. The Broncos should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. They made 53.4% of their shots against the Pilots — although that was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. Santa Clara is fourth in the nation by making 38.8% of their 3-pointers — and their shooting proficiency improves to 42.1% from 3-point range when playing on the road this season, ranking the third-best in the country. The Gaels are vulnerable in this regard as they rank 190th in the nation away from home by allowing their opponents to make 34.4% of their shots from behind the arc. The Broncos are efficient inside the arc as well as they make 54.3% of their 2-pointers, ranking 34th in the nation. And Santa Clara’s interior defense is good — they rank 59th in the nation by holding their opponents to 46.9% shooting inside the arc. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They are have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they are 14-6-2 ATS in their last 22 games on a neutral court as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: After losing by just eight points at Saint Mary’s in January, the Broncos upset the Gaels when they played on February 8th by a 77-72 score as a 3-point underdog. Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities for revenge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Game of the Year with the Santa Clara Broncos (889) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (890). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-22 |
Georgia State v. Appalachian State +3.5 |
Top |
71-66 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Appalachian State Mountaineers (838) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (837) in the Semifinals of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Appalachian State (19-13) won their third game in their last four with their 73-60 victory against Georgia Southern as a 5.5-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of this tournament yesterday. Georgia State (16-10) is on an eight-game winning streak after their 65-62 win against Arkansas State as a 4-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia State was the preseason favorite to win the Sun Belt — and after a slow 6-9 start to the season with some COVID issues likely impacting those results, the Panthers are on a 10-1 run making them a favorite in many bettors eyes. But I think they are overvalued in this spot against the reigning conference champions — and the Mountaineers match up very well against them. After holding UL-Lafayette to 58 points in their last regular-season game two Fridays ago, the Panthers held the RedWolves to just 35.6% shooting yesterday in what was the best defensive effort in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. Georgia State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 5 games when playing their second game in eight days, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests. Georgia State is a dangerous team because they generate extra scoring opportunities. They lead the Sun Belt Conference by rebounding 35.7% of their missed shots. They also lead the conference by forcing turnovers in 23.5% of their opponent’s possessions. But Appalachian State presents a feisty opponent in both of these areas. The Mountaineers are third in the Sun Belt in defensive rebounding and they rank 76th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down just 25.8% of their missed shots. Appalachian State also leads the conference and is 31st in the nation by only turning the ball over in 15.5% of their possessions — and that mark improves to just a 14.3% turnover rate when playing on the road against conference opponents. The problem for Georgia State is that they need to generate these additional scoring opportunities because they can’t shoot. The Panthers rank 347th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 44.6%. They only make 30.7% of their 3-pointers, ranking 300th in the country — and their 43.7% shooting percentage inside the arc ranks 346th in the nation. Georgia State is vulnerable against teams who can make 3-pointers. They are 330th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.4% of their shots from behind the arc — and that mark rises to a rough 39.3% clip from 3-point land from their opponents when they are playing away from home, ranking 341st in the country. Appalachian State can make 3s — they rank fourth in the Sun Belt with a 34.6% mark from downtown. In their last ten games, the Mountaineers were making 35.6% of their 3-pointers — and away from Boone, they made 35.1% of their 3-pointers in conference play. They are led by senior guard Adrian Delph who scores 17.2 Points-Per-Game while nailing 39.0% of his 3-pointers. Appalachian State does not make things easy on their opponent either as they put their opponents on the free-throw line at the 11th lowest rate in the nation. The Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread win — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after playing the day before. Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road against conference opponents. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings but it will be the Mountaineers with revenge on their minds after losing the last encounter with the Panthers by a 58-49 score despite playing that game in Boone. Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year with the Appalachian State Mountaineers (838) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (837). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-22 |
UC-Davis +4.5 v. CS-Fullerton |
Top |
59-62 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cal-Davis Aggies (735) plus the points versus the Cal-State Fullerton Titans (736). THE SITUATION: Cal-Davis (12-9) has lost two of their last three games after a 68-65 loss at Long Beach State as a 5.5-point underdog on Thursday. CS-Fullerton (17-10) has lost two in a row with their 75-72 upset loss to UC-Riverside as a 2-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES PLUS THE POINTS: Cal-Davis has been resilient after setbacks as they are 19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road where they covered the point spread. The Aggies play outstanding interior defense — they are 27th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 45.6% clip inside the arc. They stay on the road where they are second in the Big West Conference by making 36.8% of their shots from behind the arc. They should have success from distance against this Titans team that allows their guests to nail 37.5% of their 3-points, the 315th highest mark on a home court in the nation. Cal-Davis is 5-4 on the road while holding their home hosts to just 41% shooting from the field. They are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games as an underdog. The Aggies are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 135-139.5 range. Furthermore, Cal-Davis is 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog — and they are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games against teams winning at least 60% of their game. CS-Fullerton allowed UC-Riverside to make 55.3% of their shots in their upset loss. The Titans have allowed their last four opponents to make at least 51.9% of their shots. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Furthermore, CS-Fullerton has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss against a Big West opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by six points or less. The Titans have a 10-2 record at home but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 135-139.5 point range. CS-Fullerton has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Cal-Davis will be looking to avenge a 74-58 loss to CS-Fullerton on January 27th. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities for avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Big West Underdog of the Year with the Cal-Davis Aggies (735) plus the points versus the Cal-State Fullerton Titans (736). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-22 |
Drake v. Missouri State |
Top |
79-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 27 m |
Show
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At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri State Bears (768) minus the point(s) versus the Drake Bulldogs (767) in the Semifinals of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Missouri State (23-9) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven with their 67-58 victory against Valparaiso yesterday as a 10.5-point favorite. Drake (23-9) won their sixth straight game with their 65-52 victory against Southern Illinois as a 3-point favorite in their quarterfinals contest yesterday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Enterprise Center in Saint Louis, Missouri.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINT(S): Missouri State outlasted the Crusaders despite only making 44.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Not only are the Bears the best team in the Missouri Valley Conference in terms of Adjusted Offensive Efficiency but they rank 24th in the nation in that metric. They are 20th in the country with an effective field goal percentage of 54.9%. They might have the two best players in the conference in wing Isiaih Mosley and 6’9 big man Gaige Prim. Together, this inside-out pair combine to average 36.3 points per game. The Bears are 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a point spread loss. Missouri State has not covered the point spread in two straight games and four of their last five contest. The Bears have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Missouri State has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — including covering the point spread in eight of these last ten circumstances. This is a fundamentally sound team that ranks 24th in the nation in turnover rate on offense while limiting their opponents to rebounding just 23.6% of their missed shots, ranking 34th in the nation. On the road, they are 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 16th in the nation respectively by nailing 38.1% of their 3-pointers and 54.8% of their shots inside the arc when playing away from home. They also lead the conference by holding their opponents to 47.1% shooting inside the arc — and they rank 15th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just a 45.3% mark with their 2-point shots. These characteristics have helped the Bears cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games when favored. The Tigers are vulnerable against teams who can make 3s — but the Bulldogs are last in the Missouri Valley Conference by making only 30.8% of their 3-pointers. Drake has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover them in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. The Bulldogs have seen their last two games combine for 122 or fewer points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing two straight games where no more than 125 combined points were scored. Drake is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. They are also 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Missouri State swept the Bulldogs in their two meetings this season after beating them on the road by a 66-62 score as a 3.5-point underdog on February 9th. Drake has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss this season — and they have failed all 3 opportunities to avenge an upset loss this year. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year with the Missouri State Bears (768) minus the point(s) versus the Drake Bulldogs (767). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-22 |
Villanova v. Butler +8.5 |
Top |
78-59 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 6 m |
Show
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At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Butler Bulldogs (606) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (605). THE SITUATION: Butler (13-17) lost their fourth game in a row with their 64-56 loss at Marquette as an 8.5-point underdog last Saturday. Villanova (22-7) won their sixth game in their last seven with a 76-74 victory against Providence as a 10.5-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: It is Senior Day for Butler this afternoon -- and hosting the Wildcats gives them an opportunity to end their regular season on a high note before the Big East Tournament starts next week. Head coach LaVall Jordan’s team is better than their record with eight of their 13 losses in conference play being by seven points or less. They should play well this afternoon. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Butler has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after losing at least three in a row. They return home where they are 9-6 this season — but they have impressive victories against Marquette, Creighton, and Oklahoma. They hold their opponents to just 41.8% shooting which translates into 64.5 Points-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 straight games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Villanova may not be completely dialed-in for this game with zero chance to claim the Big East regular-season title. They are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. And while they have won 15 of their last 18 games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least 12 of their last 15 contests. They are just 10-6 away from home this season where they boast a 12-1 record. They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Butler will have extra motivation to redeem themselves from an 82-42 loss at Villanova on January 16th in what was their worst game of the season. They shot 30.8% from the field in what was their worst shooting effort of the season. They also allowed the Wildcats to make 59.6% of their shots which included them nailing 12 of their 19 shots (63.2%) from behind the arc. History is not likely to repeat itself since Villanova makes 41.3% of their 3s at home but sees that number plummet to a 33.1% clip on the road, ranking 185th in the nation. Butler has held their opponents to just a 29% clip from 3-point range since that embarrassing loss — and they hold their guests to just 28.1% shooting from behind the arc when playing at home, ranking 24th best in the country. These are two of the slowest-paced teams in the nation with Villanova averaging 63.0 possessions per game (345th slowest in the nation) and Butler just behind them at 63.5 possessions per game (341st in the nation). Finally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered 11 of their last 14 home games when avenging a loss on the road and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Big East Underdog of the Year with the Butler Bulldogs (606) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (605). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-04-22 |
Morehead State +4.5 v. Belmont |
Top |
53-51 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Morehead State Eagles (861) plus the points versus the Belmont Bruins (862) in the Semifinals of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Morehead State (22-10) has won two of their last three games after their 73-56 win as an 8-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of this tournament yesterday. Belmont (24-6) has won 11 of their last 12 games with their 87-67 victory against Tennessee State as a 16-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Ford Center in Evansville, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles advanced in this tournament yesterday despite making only 39.1% of their shots in what was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Morehead State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a win by 15 or more points. And while they have only covered the point spread twice in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Eagles play stout defense which keeps them in this game. They rank second in the Ohio Valley Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they top the conference in that metric when playing away from home. They are led by 6’10 sophomore John Broome who is sixth in the nation in block rate. Facing Belmont is always a challenge since they lead the nation by making 61.4% of their shots inside the arc. Morehead State leads the Ohio Valley with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.7% when playing away from home. Broome helps them play very tough interior defense: they rank 28th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 45.7% shooting percentage inside the arc — and they led the conference with their opponents only making 43.8% of their 2-pointers. In their two meetings this season, the Bruins did not shoot better than 45.9% inside the arc in either game — and they converted only 31 of these 72 shots for an underwhelming 43.1% mark with their 2-pointers. On the other end of the court, Morehead State is dangerous from 3-point land with four players in their rotation who all nail at least 35% of their shots from behind the arc. They are second in the conference with a 35.0% shooting percentage from distance. The Bruins’ perimeter defense is an area of vulnerability as they allow their opponents to make 34.8% of their shots in conference play, ranking 10th in the Ohio Valley. Belmont played their best defensive game in their last five by holding Tennessee State to just 37.5% shooting. And their 56.2% field goal percentage was their best mark in their last four games and second-best in their last eight contests. But the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit victory against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Belmont can struggle against opponents who are athletic and offer length to combat their movement and shooting on offense. They lack a Plan B if their interior shots are not falling. They only make 31.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home, ranking 246th in the nation. And they only pull down 23.1% of their missed shots away from home, ranking 310th in the country. They do force turnovers in 21.0% of their opponent's possessions, the 50th best mark in the country — but this will be the third time the Eagles have faced their pressure. In their 83-74 victory at home against the Bruins on January 20th, Morehead State only turned the ball over seven times representing just 10.6% of their possessions. They did turn the ball over 16 times in the rematch which helps explain why Belmont was able to eke out a 48-47 victory at home as a 9-point favorite. The Bruins did not cover the point spread in their four meetings against Morehead State and Murray State — the two most athletic teams in the conference. Belmont has failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games away from home after 15 games into the season against teams winning 60-80% of their games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Morehead State had a 39-29 lead at the 14:25 minute mark of the second half in their meeting last month before getting outscored in Nashville by a 19-8 rock fight to close out that game. They should be motivated to redeem themselves from that setback — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games when avenging a loss on the road. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court — and the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year with the Morehead State Eagles (861) plus the points versus the Belmont Bruins (862). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-03-22 |
Central Arkansas v. Jacksonville -9.5 |
Top |
69-79 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Dolphins (306190) minus the points versus the Central Arkansas Bears (306189) in the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (19-9) had their five-game winning streak snapped with a 76-69 loss at the Florida Gulf Coast as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Central Arkansas (11-19) has won two of their last three games with their 74-73 win in a pick ‘em contest against Stetson in the opening round of this tournament on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville should respond with a stronger effort tonight as they have covered the pint spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. The Dolphins are a strong defensive team that ranks 97th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 37th in the nation in opponent’s effective field goal percentage fueled by a stingy perimeter defense that limits their opponents to 28.9% shooting from behind the arc, the tenth best mark in the country. They also rank 30th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding just 23.4% of their missed shots. They return home where they are a perfect 14-0 with a net point differential of +20.3 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 36.5% shooting at home which is translating into only 54.1 PPG. The concern with this Jacksonville team is their shooting — but they are much better at home where they make 49.9% of their shots which is generating 74.4 PPG. The Dolphins are second in the Atlantic Sun by nailing 38.4% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play when at home. Jacksonville also does a great job of crashing the glass — they rank 34th in the nation by rebounding 33.6% of their missed shots which that mark rising to a conference-best 34.6% against Atlantic Sun foes. The Dolphins are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 130s. Furthermore, Jacksonville is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games when favored. Central Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by six points or less. Now they go on the road where they are 3-13 this season with a -18.2 PPG net point differential. The Purple Bears are one of the worst defensive teams in the nation. They rank 337th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while allowing their opponents to make 55.9% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 348th in the nation. Inexplicably, head coach Anthony Boone has them play at the 20th fastest pace in the nation which is resulting in an average of 72.4 possessions per game, the 12th most in the country. Yet this team does not force turnovers, or crash the glass, or shoot (or make) a bunch of 3s — so the increased pace is not accentuating the things they try to do well. Central Arkansas is 338th in the nation by making only 29.6% of their missed shots. They are 344th in the nation run getting to the free-throw line. The Dolphins should get plenty of fast-break scoring chances in transition which is another reason why I am not as worried about their shooting tonight. Jacksonville outrebounds their opponents by +7.6 Rebounds-Per-Game — and the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games against opponents who out-rebound their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG. Central Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 130s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Bears are looking to avenge a 79-59 loss at Jacksonville as an 11.5-point underdog on January 29th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by 20 or more points. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Game of the Year with the Jacksonville Dolphins (306190) minus the points versus the Central Arkansas Bears (306189). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-02-22 |
Old Dominion v. Louisiana Tech -8 |
Top |
54-67 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (672) minus the points versus the Old Dominion Monarchs (671). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (20-8) had won four of five games before their 56-49 loss at North Texas as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Old Dominion (12-17) won their second-straight game with their 83-63 win against Florida International as an 8-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Louisiana Tech should respond with a strong effort tonight. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 50 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last contest. And while the Bulldogs have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Louisiana Tech ranks second in Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They lead the conference by holding their opponents to just 45.0% shooting inside the arc. It will be difficult for the Monarchs to score tonight as they only hit 30.1% of their shots from behind the arc, the 320th worst mark in the nation. The Bulldogs return home where they are 12-3 this season with a net point differential of +14.9 Points-Per-Game. Louisiana Tech holds their guests to just 39.5% shooting which translates into 65.8 PPG. They also make 47.4% of their shots at home which is generating 80.7 PPG. This team ranks 62nd in the nation by making 55.1% of their shots inside the arc — and this proficiency should help them pull away in this game. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games with the Total set in the 130s. Louisiana Tech is also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Old Dominion comes off one of their best games of the season where they nailed 57.4% of their shots while holding the Golden Panthers to just 40% shooting. But the Monarchs have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a game where they shot at least 57% from the field while holding their opponent to no higher than a 43% field goal percentage. Furthermore, Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home by 20 or more points. Additionally, the Monarchs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two of their last three games. And while this is their third game since Thursday, Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing their third game in seven days. The Monarchs can’t shoot — they rank 286th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 47.5%. Now after playing their last two games at home, Old Dominion goes back on the road where their effective field goal percentage drops to 44.9%, ranking 306th in the nation. The Monarchs are just 3-13 away from home while making only 41% of their shots which is resulting in 61.2 PPG. Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road against teams winning at least 60% of their games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams this season. Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record. 25* CBB Conference USA Game of the Year with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (672) minus the points versus the Old Dominion Monarchs (671). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-28-22 |
College of Charleston +5.5 v. Hofstra |
Top |
84-89 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the College of Charleston Cougars (863) plus the points versus the Hofstra Pride (864). THE SITUATION: Charleston (16-13) had their two-game winning streak snapped with an 80-79 loss at Drexel as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Hofstra (20-10) has won seven of their last eight games with their 83-67 victory against William & Mary as an 18-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: Charleston should respond with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games after a loss. And while this is the Cougars’ fourth straight game on the road, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 road games after playing at least two straight games on the road. Head coach Pat Kelsey’s team plays at the second-highest pace in the nation. They also rank 12th in the nation by pulling down 35.3% of their missed shots — and offensive rebounding travels. Charleston is scoring 80.2 Points-Per-Game in their last five games on 48.7% shooting. They have a 7-7 record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. Charleston has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last games against teams with a winning record. Hofstra has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games after a straight-up win at home against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games at home after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Pride have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing with one day of rest. Hofstra has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They are now 11-2 at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games at home. Furthermore, the Pride have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games when the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored in all situations.
FINAL TAKE: The College of Charleston will be looking to avenge a 76-73 loss at Hofstra as a 2-point underdog on January 27th. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when motivated with revenge. 25* CBB Underdog of the Month with the College of Charleston Cougars (863) plus the points versus the Hofstra Pride (864). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-22 |
Mavs +4.5 v. Warriors |
Top |
107-101 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (543) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (544). THE SITUATION: Dallas (35-25) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 114-109 loss at Utah as a 6-point underdog on Friday. Golden State (43-17) ended their two-game losing streak with a 132-95 win at Portland as a 10-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: The silver lining from Dallas’ loss on Friday was the play of their recent acquisitions in the Kristaps Porzingis trade. Spencer Dinwiddie scored 20 points on 8 of 12 shooting and Davis Bertrans nailed five of his eight shots from behind the arc for 17 points. These two players give head coach Jason Kidd the potential for a much-needed scoring punch off the bench to help out Luka Doncic. Dallas has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. The Mavericks have been very reliable road warriors against good teams with Doncic — they are 45-20-1 ATS in their last 66 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Golden State made 51.1% of their shots on Thursday which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last seven games. They also held the Trail Blazers to just a 39.7% field goal percentage which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 12 games. The Warriors are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. They are also 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a double-digit win. Golden State is undermanned tonight with Klay Thompson out with an illness and Andre Iguodala out with a sore back. They remain without Draymond Green who is recovering from a calf injury. The Warriors’ elite defense drop to 11th in the league since the Green injury. And while the Mavericks rank a surprising fifth in the NBA in Defensive Rating this season under Kidd, Golden State’s offense ranks just 22nd in the league when facing a top-ten defense. The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas will be motivated to avenge an embarrassing 130-92 loss to the Warriors on January 25th. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 opportunities at same-season revenge. Dallas has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 meetings with the Warriors — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in Golden State. 25* NBA Sunday ESPN Game of the Month with the Dallas Mavericks (543) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-22 |
Louisville v. Wake Forest -8.5 |
Top |
77-99 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (750) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (749). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (21-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 80-69 upset loss at Clemson as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday. Louisville (12-15) has lost eight of their last nine games after their 70-63 loss at North Carolina as a 9.5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DEMON DEACONS MINUS THE POINTS: Wake Forest allowed the Tigers to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games and the third-highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. The Demon Deacons only made 41.0% of their shots as well which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 16 games. Wake Forest should play better tonight — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Demon Deacons rank second in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are second in the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.0%. They return home where they have a 14-2 record with a +15.0 net point differential. Wake Forest holds their guests to just a 38.6% field goal percentage which is resulting in 67.2 Points-Per-Game. The Demon Deacons are nailing 49.0% of their shots on their home court which is generating 82.2 PPG. Wake Forest is usually a very good shooting team — they rank 16th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 55.5% fueled by a 57.9% shooting clip inside the arc, ranking fourth-best in the country. The Cardinals are vulnerable with their interior defense as they rank ninth in the ACC by allowing their opponents to make 51.6% of their 2-pointers. Louisville ranks 12th in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Wake Forest can get into trouble against teams that force turnovers — the Deacons rank second-to-last in the ACC with a 19.9% turnover rate. But the Cardinals also rank second-to-last in the conference by forcing turnovers in only 14.2% of their opponent’s possessions. Wake Forest has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 140s. The Demon Deacons have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Louisville continues their lost season that saw the parting of ways with head coach Chris Mack midseason. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. And while the Cardinals have covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. They stay on the road where they are just 4-8 this season. They are making only 40.3% of their shots away from home which is resulting in just 64.6 PPG. Louisville is just eleventh in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They only make 32.1% of their 3-pointers, ranking 12th in the conference — and their 67.1% free throw rate that is last in the ACC will not help them cover the point spread. The Cardinals are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road as an underdog. They are also just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 140s, Louisville has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest will be looking to avenge a 73-69 loss to the Cardinals on December 29th. The Demon Deacons have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 opportunities for revenge against their opponent. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (750) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (749). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-22 |
Binghamton +8 v. New Hampshire |
Top |
62-66 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Binghamton Bearcats (1001) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (1002). THE SITUATION: Binghamton (11-14) has lost four of their last five games after a 66-49 loss to Vermont as a 15-point underdog on Wednesday. New Hampshire (13-12) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 83-55 win against the New Jersey Institute of Technology as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Binghamton only made 30.5% of their shots against the Catamounts on Wednesday in what was the worst shooting effort of the season. They should play better this afternoon as they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. Binghamton has also covered the point spread in 8 straight-road games after a straight-up loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a point spread loss. Their solid play on the defensive end of the court should keep them competitive in this game. The Bearcats are third in the America East Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to just a 32.9% shooting clip from behind the arc which is best in the conference — and they also lead the America East with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.2%. They go back on the road where they are 6-6 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games. Additionally, Binghamton has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. New Hampshire made 55.6% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the best shooting effort of the season — so I do expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win against a conference opponent. New Hampshire has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. The Bearcats can struggle on defense as they rank only eighth in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are 9-3 at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: New Hampshire won the first meeting between these two teams on February 12th by a 69-60 score in a pick ‘em match-up — but the Bearcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 opportunities this season to avenge a loss at home. 25* CBB America East Underdog of the Year with the Binghamton Bearcats (1001) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (1002). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-22 |
Texas-Arlington v. South Alabama -7.5 |
Top |
52-62 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the South Alabama Jaguars (892) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (891). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (18-10) has lost two games in a row after their 55-52 upset loss to Texas State as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday. UT-Arlington (11-16) has lost two in a row and five of their last seven after their 59-53 loss at Troy as a 4.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINTS: South Alabama has only scored 103 points in their last two games — but they should find the form that has tagged ranked second in the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and tops in the conference with a 51.9% effective field goal percentage against the Mavericks. UT-Arlington ranks 11th in the Sun Belt Conference in opponent’s effective field goal percentage — and they rank 227th in that metric when playing away from home with opponent’s posting an effective field goal percentage of 52.3%. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 65 points in two straight games. But they have also covered the point spread in 9 straight games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last contest. South Alabama has played their last two games Under the Total — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after playing at least two straight Unders. They stay at home where they are 8-3 this season with a +18.9 net points differential. The Jaguars hold their guests to just 57.9 Points-Per-Game. They rank 32nd on their home court with an effective field goal percentage of 56.0% while ranking in the top-74 in the nation in both 3-point shooting and shooting inside the arc. South Alabama has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored. The Jaguars have also covered the pint spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. South Alabama ranks second in the Sun Belt with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.5% — this is a balanced team on both ends of the court. UT-Arlington held the Trojans to host 36.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 14 games. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. UT-Arlington has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points. The Mavericks have played their last two games Under the Total by only allowing 58 and 59 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after playing two straight Unders and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. They stay on the road where they are just 3-12 this season with a -8.6 net point differential. They only make 40.1% of their shots on the road which results in only 63.5 PPG. UT-Arlington struggles with shooting the basketball — they rank 321st in the nation in effective field goal percentage. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: South Alabama will be looking to avenge an 89-87 upset loss to the Mavericks on December 30th as a 2.5-point favorite. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 75 points. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month with the South Alabama Jaguars (892) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (891). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-22 |
North Carolina-Asheville +6 v. Gardner-Webb |
Top |
59-60 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306143) plus the points versus the Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (306144). THE SITUATION: UNC-Asheville (15-12) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in an 84-79 loss to Winthrop as a 2-point underdog. Gardner-Webb (15-11) has won seven of their last eight games with their 76-68 victory at Presbyterian as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: UNC-Asheville allowed Winthrop to nail 50.9% of their shots over the weekend in what was the worst defensive effort in their last ten games. Winthrop made 12 of their 30 shots (40%) from behind the arc which was a surprise when considering that the Bulldogs rank sixth in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 28.5% clip from 3-point range this season. UNC-Asheville is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a point spread loss. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. And while this is just their second game since Thursday of last week, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing their second game in seven days. On the positive side, UNC-Asheville made at least 50% of their shots for their third straight game with their 53.2% clip against the Eagles over the weekend. In their last five games, the Bulldogs are making 48.3% of their shots which has bumped up their scoring average +5.3 Points-Per-Game to a 79.8 PPG mark over that span. This team also ranks 32nd in the nation in getting to the free-throw line where they then make 73.9% of their freebies, ranking in the top-100 in the nation. The Runnin’ Bulldogs rank 278th in the nation in putting opponents on the free-throw line. UNC-Asheville goes on the road where they are 7-6 this season. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. They are also 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Gardner-Webb has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning at least three of their last four games. The Runnin’ Bulldogs are no slouches defending the 3-point shot either — they rank seventh in the nation in opponent’s field goal percentage behind the arc. UNC-Asheville is vulnerable to teams who crash the glass — but Gardner Webb ranks only seventh in the conference in offensive rebounding when playing at home. The Runnin’ Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored. Gardner Webb has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 135 to 139.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: UNC-Asheville will be motivated to avenge a 61-55 upset loss at home to the Runnin’ Bulldogs as a 1.5-point favorite on January 27th. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* CBB Big South Game of the Month with the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306143) plus the points versus the Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (306144). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-22 |
San Diego State +2.5 v. Boise State |
Top |
57-58 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (645) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (646). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (17-6) won their fifth straight game with a 61-44 victory at Fresno State as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Boise State (21-6) has won four of their last five games with their 68-57 win against Utah State as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: After a narrow one-point loss at Colorado State, San Diego State has gotten on a roll by winning their last four games by double-digits. A discovered scoring touch has triggered the upsurge in play for head coach Brian Dutcher’s team. They are shooting 49.0% from the field in their last five games. They had shot 62.5% and 51.7% from the field in their previous two games before posting a 47.9% field goal percentage in their win against the Bulldogs. The Aztecs should continue their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a win on the road against a Mountain West Conference rival. San Diego State leads the Mountain West in offensive rebounding rate — and they are very tough to beat if they are hitting their shots. This Aztecs team boasts the top-ranked defensive in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in the nation — and this defense travels. San Diego State holds their home hosts to just a 39.7% field goal percentage which translates into only 60.7 Points-Per-Game — and they rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 40 road games with the Total set in the 120s. San Diego State has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Boise State played their best defensive game in their last eight contests by holding the Aggies to just 43.4% shooting on Saturday. But the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning two games in a row after conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning four of their last five contests. Boise State’s defense has taken a step back as of late — they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.0% of their shots. This is concerning because this Broncos team cannot shoot. Boise State ranks 349th in the country by making only 64.5% of their free throws — a troubling characteristic for a team expected to be in a close game. And they only make 32.4% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on their home court, ranking 246th in the nation. One of the power rankings systems I use lists the Broncos as the 28th best team in the nation — but those analytics drop them to 60th in the country when exclusively evaluating teams playing on their home court. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games. The Broncos lack depth with head coach Leon Rice relying mostly on seven players — but that seventh player, Name Smith, is questionable tonight with an undisclosed injury.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams met on January 22nd with Boise State winning by a 42-37 score as a 4.5-point road underdog. The Aztecs were rusty coming off a two-week hiatus due to COVID outbreaks — and they only shot 28.1% from the field while missing 15 of their 19 shots from behind the arc. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Tuesday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the San Diego State Aztecs (645) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-21-22 |
Maryland-Eastern Shore +6 v. North Carolina Central |
Top |
79-66 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks (306109) plus the points versus the North Carolina-Central Eagles (306110). THE SITUATION: Maryland-Eastern Shore (8-13) has lost three games in a row after their 70-63 loss at South Carolina State as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. North Carolina-Central (15-11) has won four games in a row with their 84-79 win against Delaware State as a 12-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Maryland-Eastern Shore only made 37.6% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. The Hawks should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road. And while they have lost four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing four or five of their last six contests. After being one of ten Division I programs that did not play a single game last season because of the COVID pandemic, many college basketball prognosticators projected Maryland-Eastern Shore to be the worst team in the country this season. Not so — this group beat Fordham in double-overtime earlier this season. They lost by just nine points at Connecticut. Granted, this is a team that is still just 3-7 in conference play — but head coach Jason Crafton has done a fine job with his squad. And his team does some things that make them intriguing road warriors. For starters, they are one of the best teams in the nation in forcing turnovers. The Hawks rank 15th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.3% of their opponent’s possessions. In Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference play, they lead the league by forcing turnovers in 26.3% of their opponents' possessions. The Eagles are very vulnerable in this department — they rank 238th in the nation by turning the ball over in 23.8% of their opponent’s possessions. In conference play, North Carolina-Central turns the ball over 24.3% of the time. This defensive pressure helps Maryland-Eastern Shore boast the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in conference play using one of the analytics formulas I track — and they are second in the MEAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road using those metrics. The Hawks also do a couple of things that make them dangerous. They are third in the conference by rebounding 31.7% of their missed shots when playing on the road. They also nail 36% of their 3-point shots on the road in conference play. Maryland-Eastern Shore has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road. And while this is their second game since last Monday, the Hawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games when playing second games in seven days. Furthermore, Maryland-Eastern Shore is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. North Carolina-Central has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Eagles are considered one of the favorites to win the MEAC despite COVID limiting them to just 13 practices all season last year. The Eagles are not a great defensive team by conference standards. They rank seventh in the MEAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that ranking remains seventh of the eight teams in the conference in that m metric when playing at home. North Carolina-Central has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Eagles have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: North Carolina-Central won the first meeting between these two teams by a 75-63 score as a 3-point favorite on the road. The Eagles made 11 of their 25 shots (44%) from behind the arc which is a number they are not likely to replicate since they rank 276th in the nation by making only 31.6% of their 3-point shots. Tellingly, North Carolina-Central committed 18 turnovers in that game while turning the ball over in 27.3% of their possessions against the Hawks’ pressure. Maryland-Eastern Shore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks (306109) plus the points versus the North Carolina-Central Eagles (306110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-22 |
East Carolina v. UCF -9 |
Top |
66-69 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Central Florida Knights (832) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (831). THE SITUATION: Central Florida (15-9) looks to rebound from a 70-52 loss at Houston on Thursday as a 13.5-point underdog. East Carolina (13-12) has won two of their last three games with their 65-57 victory at South Florida as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Central Florida could not get anything going on the offensive end of the court against the Cougars. Their 28.3% field goal percentage in that game was the lowest of the season. Johnny Dawkins’ team should shoot much better this afternoon. Central Florida has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not making at least 33% of their shots in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not scoring at least 55 points in their last game. Additionally, the Knights have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a double-digit loss. Central Florida has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss. And while this is the Knights’ third game since Monday this week, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when playing their third game in seven days. They return home where they are 11-3 this season. Dawkins’ team thrives on the defensive end of the court where they hold their guests to just a 40.9% field goal percentage which results in only 61.9 Points-Per-Game. UCF makes a modest 45.2% of their shots at home — so they should make more baskets than they did against the Cougars. But what makes this Knights’ team so dangerous is that they do a good job in generating additional scoring opportunities. Central Florida pulls down 31.6% of their missed shots, ranking 68th in the nation. The Knights also lead the American Athletic Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.8% of their opponent’s possessions — and that turnover rate improves to a 22.7% clip when playing at home. The Pirates are loose with the basketball — they rank seventh in the conference by turning the ball over in 19.9% of their possessions. Central Florida has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. East Carolina held South Florida to just 34.4% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 23 games. The Pirates had lost six in a row before winning two of their last three — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after losing four or five of their last six games. And while East Carolina has not scored more than 30 points in the first half in eight straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after not scoring more than 30 points in the first half in at least two straight games. They stay on the road where they are just 3-8 this season. The Pirates struggle to score -- and it starts with their shooting inside the arc where they rank 322nd in the nation by making only 45.7% of their 2-pointers. On the road, East Carolina has a 40.4% field goal percentage — and they rank 341st in the country with an effective field goal percentage of 43.7% on the road. The Pirates have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 130s. East Carolina has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Pirates will be motivated to avenge a 92-85 loss in overtime at home to the Knights on January 18th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 85 points. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Game of the Month with the Central Florida Knights (832) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (831). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-19-22 |
Long Island v. Mt. St. Mary's +2 |
Top |
66-61 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (306034) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Long Island Sharks (306033). THE SITUATION: Mount St. Mary’s (12-13) has lost three of their last four games after their 64-55 upset loss to St. Francis-NY as a 5-point favorite on Thursday. Long Island (12-13) has won three games in a row with their 81-63 win at St. Francis-PA as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Mount St. Mary’s allowed St. Francis-NY to make 47.4% of their shots which was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 15 games. The Mountaineers have the top defense in the Northeast Conference in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. They have held their last two opponents to 29 and 27 points in the first half in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half of their last two games. They stay at home where they have a +10.4 net point differential while holding their guests to just a 41.5% shooting percentage and 61.2 Points-Per-Game. Mount St. Mary’s have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. On their home court, the Mountaineers pull down 37.6% of their missed shots, the 13th highest mark in the nation. Mount St. Mary’s also leads the Northeast Conference by making 35.6% of their shots — and they face a Sharks team that allows their home hosts to mane 36.7% of their shots in conference play. Long Island held St. Francis-PA to just a 32.9% shooting percentage which was the second-lowest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed all season and the lowest mark in 16 games. The Sharks also made 47.1% of their shots which was the best mark in their last 13 games. But Long Island has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a double-digit win on the road. The Sharks have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Long Island won their previous game by a 99-88 score against Bryant but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning their last two games by double-digits. The Sharks stay on the road where they are just 3-12 this season with a -9.5 net point differential. They only make 40.4% of their shots away from home. Long Island has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Mount St. Mary’s will be looking to avenge a 74-57 loss at Long Island on January 6th as a 5-point underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 opportunities to avenge a loss on the road where they did not score at least 60 points. The Mountaineers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Game of the Year with the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (306034) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Long Island Sharks (306033). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-18-22 |
St. Peter's +1.5 v. Fairfield |
Top |
70-59 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (877) plus the point(s) versus the Fairfield Stags (878). THE SITUATION: Saint Peter’s (11-10) has lost two straight games after their 70-61 loss to Iona as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Fairfield (12-14) has lost four of their last six games after their 74-67 upset loss to Manhattan as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PEACOCKS PLUS THE POINT(S): The Stags could not take care of business against an undermanned Jaspers squad earlier this week — and now they continue their jam-packed schedule this week by playing for the fourth time since Saturday. As it is, Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread 4 of their last 6 games when playing for the second time in three days. The Stags have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss to a conference rival. They do stay at home tonight — but they are just 5-8 on their home court. And while a power ratings analytics model I use ranks them 208th in the nation, that system drops them to 269th in the country when measuring home court performance. Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 120s. Playing every other day for the fourth time tonight is challenging on the shooting legs — and this Stags’ team is very dependent on making baskets since they do not do much to create more scoring chances. Fairfield ranks ninth in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference by rebounding only 25.3% of their missed shots — and they only force turnovers in 16.7% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking ninth in the conference. Furthermore, Fairfield’s defense is middling — they rank only seventh in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Saint Peter’s comes in rested with this being just their second game since last Friday — and this is their first game on the road since January 30th. Led by KC Ndefo, the two-time Defensive Player of the Year in the conference, the Peacocks have the best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in the MAAC. Saint Peter’s usually has a strong defense under head coach Shaheen Holloway — and this season is no exception. The Peacocks lead the conference by forcing turnovers in 21.5% of their opponent’s possessions. They also lead the conference in opponent’s effective field goal percentage with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45.1% inside the arc and 29.0% from 3-point land, both the best marks in the MAAC. Saint Peter’s also ranks second in the conference by pulling down 31.4% of their missed shots — and they lead the MAAC by nailing 38.3% of their 3-pointers. And this team is 26th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line — and the Stags are 230th in opponent’s free throw rate. There is a lot to like about this Peacocks team moving forward. They have held their last two opponents to 30 and 26 first-half points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games when an underdog getting up to six points. Saint Peter’s has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games after playing at least three straight games at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Peacocks under Holloway are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog — and the Stags have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (877) plus the point(s) versus the Fairfield Stags (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-17-22 |
Creighton v. DePaul -1.5 |
Top |
71-59 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the DePaul Blue Demons (850) minus the point(s) versus the Creighton Bluejays (849). THE SITUATION: DePaul (12-10) has lost two games in a row after their 73-71 upset loss to Butler as a 5-point favorite on Tuesday. Creighton (16-8) won their third straight game with their 86-77 victory against Georgetown as an 11-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLEU DEMONS MINUS THE POINT(S): DePaul may have lost six of their last eight games but they are still playing pretty good basketball this month. They lost to Providence in overtime over the weekend before losing by one possession to the Bulldogs. They upset Xavier on the road last week. They only made 41.3% of their shots against Butler which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. This DePaul team is better than their record — they played seven games without their leading scorer Javon Freeman-Liberty who was out with an injury. He is scoring 20.6 Points-Per-Game after his 20-point effort on Tuesday. The Blue Demons are 9-6 on their home court this season with impressive wins against Seton Hall and the upset machine that is Rutgers. They hold their guests to just 41.7% shooting from the field when playing at home. DePaul has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 140s. The Blue Demons have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games at home when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Creighton made 53.8% of their shots in their victory against the Hoyas — but that was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games. The Bluejays have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning three of their last four games. This is not a good shooting team this season — they only make 31.4% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 290th in the nation. They are also too loose with the basketball as they are turning the ball over in 21.3% of their possessions, ranking 324th in the nation, and it is has been worse in conference play as they are last in the Big East by turning the ball over in 22.0% of their possessions. Creighton is 7-5 on the road but they are getting outscored by -2.0 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: DePaul will be motivated to avenge a 60-47 loss at Creighton where they blew a double-digit lead in the second half by scoring only two points over a 12-minute span. But the Blue Demons played that game without Freeman-Liberty who is now back with the team — and they missed 14 of their 17 shots from 3-point land. Back at home, DePaul makes a solid 34.1% of their shots from distance. They get to play the role of spoiler tonight against a Creighton team firmly on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Thursday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the DePaul Blue Demons (850) minus the point(s) versus the Creighton Bluejays (849). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-12-22 |
Cincinnati v. Tulsa +2.5 |
Top |
77-83 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (776) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (775). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (7-15) has lost three in a row after their 73-71 upset loss to East Carolina as a 7-point favorite on Tuesday. Cincinnati (16-7) has won two of their last three contests with their 70-59 win at South Florida as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN HURRICANE PLUS THE POINTS: Tulsa has lost ten of their last eleven games — but they have been a very tough out on their home court while not getting many breaks in close games. Besides losing to the Pirates by just a basket during this rough stretch, they also lost at home to Houston and Memphis by just two points — and they lost at home to SMU and Temple by just five points apiece. Earlier in the season. Tulsa upset Rhode Island on their home court. The Golden Hurricane allowed East Carolina to nail 50.9% of their shots after not allowing their last three opponents to make more than 41.3% of their shots. Tulsa has been playing better on the defensive end of the court — they held those three previous opponents to just 34.7% shooting. The Golden Hurricane have bounced back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Tulsa has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 home games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Tulsa has covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after losing three games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. The Golden Hurricane are just 6-7 on their home court but they are outscoring their guests by +6.7 Points-Per-Game. Tulsa has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games when an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight home games as a dog getting up to three points. Cincinnati may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a double-digit loss. The Bearcats are also 13-38-3 ATS in their last 54 games after a straight-up win — and they are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a point spread victory. Now they stay on the road where they are only making 38.9% of their shots. Cincinnati can’t shoot the basketball — they rank 266th in the nation in effective field goal percentage with a 47.8% clip while ranking no higher than 255th in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. The Bearcats are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games when favored. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games with the Total set in the 130s — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Tulsa will be motivated to avenge a 90-69 loss at Cincinnati as a 7.5-point favorite on January 20th. The Bearcats nailed 16 of their 29 shots from 3-point range in that game — but they are not likely to come close to repeating that 55.2% clip from downtown on the road where they make just 33.3% of their 3-pointers. The Golden Hurricane has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games when avenging a loss. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Underdog of the Month with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (776) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (775). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-10-22 |
Stanford v. Oregon -8.5 |
Top |
60-68 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (838) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (837). THE SITUATION: Oregon (15-7) has won three straight games and nine of their last ten after their 80-77 win at Utah as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Stanford (14-9) has lost three of their last five games after their 79-70 loss to UCLA as a 7.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: It may have taken some time for this Oregon team to develop some chemistry and establish an identity — but they are starting to roll now. Head coach Dana Altman has assembled a very intriguing roster with four former top-100 recruits at center and four ball-handling two-way guards. Altman can do a lot with this group, and his defenses are at their best when he has rim protectors. And Altman’s teams are always good on offense — this Ducks team leads the Pac-12 with an effective field goal percentage of 53.6% fueled by ranking second in the conference in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. Oregon should continue to feed off its momentum. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win on the road against a Pac-12 rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win on the road by three points or less. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 6 games after winning at least four or five of their last six games, they have covered the point spread 5 times. They only made 43.9% of their shots against the Utes which was the second-worst shooting effort in their last six games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they are 9-3 this season with a +14.1 net point differential. They make 50.9% of their shots on their home court which is generating 78.9 Points-Per-Game. They also hold their guests to 40.4% shooting — and they have held their last five opponents to just 38.1% shooting. Oregon has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. The Ducks have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Stanford shot 53.7% from the field in their loss to the Bruins which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. But now after playing their last four games at home, they go back on the road where they are 4-6 this season with a -7.7 net point differential. The Cardinal only makes 42.5% of their shots on the road which is resulting just 62.7 PPG. Stanford is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Cardinal has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games with the Total set in the 135-139.5 point range. Stanford has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Oregon will be motivated to avenge a 72-69 loss at Stanford in a pick ‘em contest on December 12th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Oregon Ducks (838) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (837). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-05-22 |
Eastern Washington +7.5 v. Southern Utah |
Top |
72-84 |
Loss |
-108 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Eastern Washington Eagles (813) plus the points versus the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (814). THE SITUATION: Eastern Washington (11-11) has lost three in a row and four of their last five games after their 90-84 loss at Weber State as an 11-point underdog on Monday. Southern Utah (14-6) has won three straight games and five of their last six contests with their 75-59 victory against Idaho as a 15-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Eastern Washington gave Kansas a scare in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament last season — but with every player who scored a point or pulled down a rebound in that game now gone, this was an expected rebuilding season for the program. Head coach Shantay Legman’s also left to rebuild the Portland program so assistant coach Dave Riley was given the reigns of the team. The 32-year-old served on the coaching staff here for ten years — and he has pretty much kept the systems and philosophies that got them to the Big Dance last season. Riley was also able to snag some key transfers to re-inject the roster with talent. Eastern Washington proved that they were still a handful to deal with after upsetting a Washington State team early in the season that currently ranks 32nd in the nation in the KenPom rankings. They are on a losing streak right now — but their four most recent losses were all settled by six points or less. They allowed the Wildcats to make 53.7% of their shots on Monday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Eagles are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss to a Big Sky opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They stay on the road where they are 7-8 this season — but they are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 games on the road including covering the point spread in twelve of their last fourteen road games this season. This team continues to be road warriors under Riley’s leadership — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games as an underdog. Eastern Washington has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games with the Total set in the 150s. This Eastern Washington team is once again a good shooting team from deep. They are third in the Big Sky by nailing 37.1% of their 3-pointers. They should have success shooting from behind the arc against this Thunderbirds team that is ninth in the conference by allowing their opponents to make 36.8% of their 3-pointers — and they have been even worse in this department when playing at home with their opponents making 39.0% of their 3-pointers. The Eagles play good perimeter defense by holding their opponents to just 33.0% 3-point shooting, the second-best defensive mark in the conference. Eastern Washington also leads the Big Sky by limiting their opponents to pull down just 20.6% of their missed shots — this should frustrate their home hosts who lead the conference in offensive rebounding. Southern Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. The Thunderbirds are 9-2 on their home court — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing at home. Southern Utah has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Thunderbirds have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored — and they host an Eagles squad that has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Southern Utah did win the first meeting between these two teams by an 89-76 score on December 2nd — but Eastern Washington has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Underdog of the Year with the Eastern Washington Eagles (813) plus the points versus the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (814). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-01-22 |
South Carolina v. Mississippi State -8.5 |
Top |
64-78 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Mississippi State (622) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (621) THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (13-7) has lost two straight games after their 76-50 loss at Texas Tech as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. South Carolina (13-7) won their third straight game with their 74-63 upset win at Texas A&M as a 7-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State played one of their worst games of the season in their SEC-Big 12 Challenge showdown with the Red Raiders. They allowed Texas Tech to make 61.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. And they only made 39.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting performance in their last 11 contests. Ben Howland’s team should bounce back with a strong effort. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss — and they are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a loss by 20 or more points. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after failing to score at least 60 points in their last contest. This team has also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after losing two in a row. They return home where they are 11-1 this season with a +15.6 net Points-Per-Game differential. They make 49.6% of their shots on their home court which is generating 77.3 PPG. They are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home. They should control the glass against the Gamecocks. Mississippi State ranks 21st in the nation by pulling down 35.0% of their missed shots — and South Carolina allows their opponents to rebound 31.9% of their misses, ranking 308th in the nation. And while the Gamecocks rebound 34.9% of their misses, ranking 23rd in the country, the Bulldogs limit their opponents to just 24.1% rebounds of their missed shots, ranking 41st in the nation. The other area where Mississippi State has an edge in getting to the free-throw line. The Bulldogs rank 55th in the nation in free throw rate — and they are facing a South Carolina team that is 350th in the nation with a Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 43.9%. The Gamecocks played their best defensive game in their last nine against the Aggies over the week by holding them to just 34.4% shooting. But South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win by at least 10 points. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in each of their games during their three-game winning streak but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least three in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in three games in a row. South Carolina stays on the road where they are 4-5 on the road but getting outscored by -5.9 PPG. They only make 39.0% of their shots on the road which is resulting in just 62.9 PPG. Frank Martin’s team struggles to shoot the basketball. They rank 262nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 47.7% — and they only make 63.6% of their free throws, ranking 346th in the country. The Gamecocks rank 13th in the SEC on Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Mississippi State has played Florida and Kentucky tough on the road but lacks a marquee win away from home — but their biggest victory of the season was on their home court against Alabama. They will be without Tulu Smith with a knee injury who is a spark plug coming off the bench. But the Bulldogs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home when favored — and they host a Gamecocks team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Mississippi State (622) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (621). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-28-22 |
Manhattan +6 v. St. Peter's |
Top |
51-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Manhattan Jaspers (883) plus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (884). THE SITUATION: Manhattan (10-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 78-62 loss at Monmouth as an 8.5-point underdog on Sunday. Saint Peter’s (8-7) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 69-62 upset win at Marist as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JASPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Manhattan should play better tonight against a team that carries a similar profile. The Jaspers only made 35.6% of their shots against the Hawks which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. Manhattan us 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Jaspers are led by 6’5 senior Jose Perez. The Marquette transfer came to Manhattan for his final season — he is scoring 17.9 Points-Per-Game and averaging 4.6 Assists-Per-Game. Head coach Steve Masiello’s team is the second-best in the nation in getting to the free-throw line with a 45.0% free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio. The Jaspers should get plenty of chances at the charity stripe tonight (where they make 74.5% of their free throws) against this Peacocks team that ranks 350th in the nation with an opponent’s free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 43.2%. This Manhattan team is shooting much better inside the arc this season (after making only 44.4% of their 2-pointers last year) with a 54.2% shooting clip in conference play, the top mark in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Association. The Jaspers stay on the road where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Saint Peter’s is just 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread win. They return home where they are 4-2 on the season — but they are only making 40.4% of their shots which is resulting in only 66.8 PPG. After playing their last three games on the road, the Peacocks play a home game for the first time since January 18th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games after playing at least three straight games on the road. Saint Peter’s are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams that can struggle to make shots — and they turn the ball in 20.9% and 20.8% of their possessions. Manhattan has the most impressive victory between these two teams — they beat a Liberty team currently ranked 96th in the nation in the kenpom rankings by 16 points. Saint Peter’s defeated Monmouth who rank 117th at kenpom. The Jaspers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and the Peacocks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Association Underdog of the Month with the Manhattan Jaspers (883) plus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (884). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-22 |
Purdue v. Iowa +2.5 |
Top |
83-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (824) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (823). THE SITUATION: Iowa (14-5) has won three of their last four games after their 68-51 win against Penn State as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (16-3) has won four of their last five games with their 80-60 win against Northwestern as a 12-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa is once again dynamo on offense under head coach Fran McCaffrey. They rank seventh in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But what is exciting about this Iowa team is their improved play on defense. After holding Rutgers to just 31.0% shooting eight days ago, they followed that up limiting the Nittany Lions to only 33.3% shooting on Saturday in that win. The Hawkeyes held Penn State to just 25 points in the first half — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. Iowa has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three games. The Hawkeyes stay at home where they have an 11-1 record with a net point differential of +22.5 Points-Per-Game. Iowa makes 48.5% of their shots at home which generates a whopping 90.2 PPG — and they rank fourth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on their home court. They limit their guests to 41.0% shooting. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Boilermakers have out-rebounded their last four opponents by at least seven rebounds per game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after out-rebounding their last four opponents by at least six rebounds per game. Purdue has demonstrated some vulnerabilities on defense in Big Ten play — their opponents' effective field goal percentage in conference play of 51.9% ranks ninth. They allow Big Ten opponents to make 34.1% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking ninth. Big Ten foes are also nailing 51.0% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 10th in the conference. The Boilermakers do rank number one in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they do drop to sixth in the country in that metric when playing in true road games. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Furthermore, the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored by six points or less. Additionally, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored overall — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Purdue won the first meeting between these two teams by a 77-70 in West Lafayette. Iowa played that game with their All-American Keegan Murray who is third in the nation with a 22.8 Points-Per-Game scoring average. The Hawkeyes made only 5 of their 21 shots (23.8%) from behind the arc as well in that game — but now they return home where they make 36.8% of their shots from distance. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when avenging a same-season loss. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (824) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (823). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-26-22 |
Iowa State +3.5 v. Oklahoma State |
Top |
84-81 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (721) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (722). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (14-5) has lost two in a row and four of their last five after a 59-44 upset loss at home to TCU as a 6-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma State (10-8) has their two-game winning streak end on Saturday in a 56-51 loss at Texas as a 10-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State opened the season with 12 straight wins — but they are now facing the difficulties of playing in an uber-competitive Big 12 conference. But it would be a mistake to discount this team that has high-profile victories against Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa, Xavier on a neutral court, and Creighton on the road. They lost by just one point at Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse. They only made 30.9% of their shots on Saturday against the Horned Frogs which was their second-lowest mark of the season. Iowa State is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to score more than 50 points in their last game. Their previous loss was a 72-60 setback last Tuesday at Texas Tech motivated by revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after two straight losses by 10 or more points. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring more than 60 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing their second game in eight days. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 55 points in their last game. Scoring baskets is an issue for this team — they have not scored more than 64 points in eight straight games since a 98-93 win against Cleveland State on December 13th. To compound matters tonight, Oklahoma State will be without point Bryce Williams who is out with an ankle injury. The Cowboys are balanced on offense (or they lack reliable scorers …) — but Williams does lead the team with meager 10.6 Point-Per-Game and 3.3 Assists-Per-Game averages. In their last five games, they are making just 37.9% of their shots which is resulting in 57.2 PPG. They are only 3-3 on their home court where they have lost to the Xavier team that the Cyclones beat on a neutral court — and they also got upset at home to Oakland this season. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games when favored by 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: These are two similar teams who rank sixth and seven in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency fueled by the fourth and twelfth best defensive turnover rates in the nation (Iowa State has the better numbers in both instances, by the way). Both teams also are loose with the ball when they have possession (the Cyclones have slightly better seasonal turnover numbers but have been worse in conference play relative to the Cowboys). But Iowa State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when favored. 25* CBB Big 12 Underdog of the Month with the Iowa State Cyclones (721) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-24-22 |
Towson +1.5 v. Delaware |
Top |
69-62 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Towson Tigers (871) plus the point(s) versus the Delaware Hens (872). THE SITUATION: Towson (14-6) had their five-game winning streak snapped with an 81-77 upset loss to UNC-Wilmington on Saturday. Delaware (14-6) has won three games in a row with their 80-77 win against Elon as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Towson should rebound with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Just ignore last year’s 4-13 record for Towson in a year impacted by COVID and injuries. Head coach Pat Skerry is a veteran head coach with a good track record — and he was aggressive in the transfer market to bolster the talent on his roster. This is a balanced team with four players scoring at least 10.7 Points-Per-Game. As usual, Skerry’s teams attack the offensive glass — the Tigers rank 19th in the nation by pulling down 35.7% of their missed shots. They should get plenty of second-chance opportunities against a Blue Hens team that allows their opponents to rebound 37.1% of their missed shots, 321st in the nation — and they are last in the Colonial Athletic Association by allowing their conference opponents to rebound 39.7% of their misses. This Towson team is different because they are taking many more shots from behind the arc. It is not uncommon for the Tigers to take fewer than 30% of their shots from 3-point range but this year they are taking 38.7% of their shots from distance which is just over the 38.1% national average. Even better, Towson is nailing 36.4% of their 3-pointers, ranking 49th in the nation. The Tigers defense is steadily improving as well — they rank second in the Colonial in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and top the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.0%. Offensive rebounding and defense travels which is why Towson is 7-4 away from home with an average winning margin of +7.3 net Points-Per-Game. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Towson has covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road as a dog. Delaware has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home when playing with one day or less of rest. The Blue Hens have won five of their last six games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while Delaware has enjoyed halftime leads of at least seven points in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after leading by at least five points at halftime in at least three games in a row. The Blue Hens are 7-0 at home this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court. Furthermore, Delaware has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. The Blue Hens are led by George Washington transfer Jameer Nelson, Jr., the son of the former NBA player. But the vulnerability of this Delaware team is their defense.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are tied in conference play with a 5-2 record — but the Blue Hens have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Towson has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against winning teams — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Underdog of the Month with the Towson Tigers (871) plus the point(s) versus the Delaware Hens (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-22 |
Sacred Heart +3.5 v. Mt. St. Mary's |
Top |
59-98 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Sacred Heart Pioneers (306207) plus the points versus the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (306208). THE SITUATION: Sacred Heart (8-11) has won two games in a row after their 74-66 win against Central Connecticut State as a 9-point favorite on Monday. Mount St. Mary’s (6-12) has won two of their last three games after their 57-50 win at Merrimack as a 3-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PIONEERS PLUS THE POINTS: This Sacred Heart team almost everyone from the young team that surprised expectations by finishing tied for third in the Northeast Conference last season. The Pioneers got clocked in the conference tournament against Bryant by 30 points — but they demonstrated their growth earlier this season by only losing by three points at Bryant on December 31st. Sacred Heart also scored an impressive opening victory to begin their season with an overtime win at LaSalle. The deeper analytics suggested that the Pioneers overachieved last season — however, the positive impact of head coach Anthony Latina should not be dismissed. Sacred Heart should play well in this game. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after a point spread loss. They are 3-1 so far in conference play. Latina runs a four-guard attack that is led by Tyler Thomas and Aaron Clarke who score 19.1 and 16.2 Points-Per-Game. This team is also one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation that ranks 109th in the country by pulling down 30.8% of their missed shots — and the lead the Northeast Conference by rebounding 37.7% of their misses. This is an area of weakness for the Mountaineers as they rank 233rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 29.6% of their misses. Sacred Heart has not covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Their offensive rebounding travels — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Mount St. Mary’s has covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. And while the Mountaineers have played two straight Unders, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after playing at least two straight Unders. Now after playing their last four games on the road, they return home to play for the first time since December 18th. Mount St. Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after playing at least three straight games on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home. The Mountaineers have a big frontline with Mezzo Offurum, Nana Opoku, and Malik Jefferson who are 6’8, 6’9, and 6’9 respectively. It is this trio that helped them win the Northeast Conference tournament and go to the Big Dance last March. But these big men don’t shoot from distance - they are a combined 8 of 28 from 3-point land this season with Offurum dominating those numbers by taking 22 of those shots (but only making five). With these three a non-threat from distance with that 28% shooting mark from 3-point land, opponents are happy to play zone defenses against them. Mount St. Mary’s went on their late-season run a year ago because Damian Chong Qui became their Mr. Everything as the primary ball-handler and scorer. He transferred to Indiana-Fort Wayne in the offseason. Head coach Dan Englestad responded by bringing in Jalen Benjamin from UAB to take over that role — but Benjamin has not been as prolific in scoring, rebounding, and assists as Chong Qui, especially in clutch time. The Mountaineers rank 323rd in the nation in eight in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.
FINAL TAKE: Mount St. Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Underdog of the Month with the Sacred Heart Pioneers (306207) plus the points versus the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (306208). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-20-22 |
St. Louis v. Massachusetts +3.5 |
Top |
85-91 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Massachusetts Minutemen (734) plus the points versus the Saint Louis Billikens (733). THE SITUATION: UMass (7-9) has lost four in a row and six of their last seven contests after their 81-68 loss to Rhode Island as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. Saint Louis (11-5) won their third game in their last four with their 63-45 win against Fordham as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MINUTEMEN PLUS THE POINTS: UMass only shot 35.7% from the field on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 14 games. The Minutemen rank 35th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. UMass ranks third in the nation by nailing 41.4% of their shots from behind the arc — and they take 41.4% of their field goal attempts from 3-point land. In conference play, the Minutemen are making 46.4% of their 3-pointers. They face a Billikens team that has allowed their five opponents away from home to shoot 36.3% from 3-point land — and their three games in true road games in hostile environments, their home hosts have made 39.7% of their shots from downtown, the 319th worst mark in the nation. UMass has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. And while they have allowed at 77 and 81 points in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 75 points in two straight games. They stay at home where they are 6-2 on the season with an average winning margin of +6.5 Points-Per-Game. They score 80.1 PPG at home — and they have already upset Penn State and Rutgers at home this season. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after playing a game at home. They are also 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games as an underdog. The Billikens made 45.3% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But they have scored just 63 points in each of their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games after not scoring more than 65 points in two straight contests. They held the Rams to only 28.6% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last 13 games. But Saint Louis has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 29 road games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest. Away from home, the Billikens are 3-2 while making only 41.4% of their shots — and they allow their opponents to make 47.5% of their shots away from home. Saint Louis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Billikens have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when favored by up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: UMass has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Underdog of the Month with the Massachusetts Minutemen (734) plus the points versus the Saint Louis Billikens (733). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-19-22 |
American v. Army -9 |
Top |
66-76 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (1142) minus the points versus the American Eagles (1141). THE SITUATION: Army (10-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 68-54 upset loss at Lafayette as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. American (5-10) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 63-55 win at home against Bucknell in a pick ‘em contest on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Army should respond to their upset loss with a strong performance tonight. They only made 33.9% of their shots on Sunday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 13 games. The Black Knights have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring at least 60 points on the road in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a loss on the road. Head coach Jimmy Allen has three starters back from the group that finished 15-15 last season. They were the only Patriot League team that played non-conference games in a year impacted by COVID. They are 4-2 so far in conference play. This team does not give away many freebies at the charity stripe — they rank 11th in the nation in opponent free throw rate. They are also second in the conference by forcing turnovers in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions — and they now host a team in the Eagles that is last in the Patriot League by turning the ball over in 19.1% of their possessions. Army returns home where they are 7-1 this season with an average winning margin of +16.7 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to 37.4% shooting which results in just 59.5 PPG. The Black Knights have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. American was a difficult team to gauge entering this season. They only played ten games last year, winning just four times. They only played three different opponents in their nine regular-season games in the skewed Patriot League schedule impacted by COVID. Their best player from that group, Jamir Harris, transferred to Seton Hall. After an opening game overtime victory against a Marist team that ranks 169th in the currently kenpom rankings, they have since not defeated a team ranked higher than 290th using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. The Eagles are last in the Patriot League in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are also last in the conference by making only 28.1% of their shots from behind the arc. They go back on the road where they are just 2-8 this season — and they are getting outscored by -16.5 PPG. They only score 62.7 PPG on the road — and they give up 79.2 PPG on 49.6% shooting. American has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Patriot League Game of the Month with the Army Black Knights (1142) minus the points versus the American Eagles (1141). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-22 |
Indiana v. Iowa -4.5 |
Top |
74-83 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (840) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (839). THE SITUATION: Iowa (11-4) had their four-game winning streak snapped with an 87-78 loss at Wisconsin as a 3.5-point underdog last Thursday. Indiana (12-3) won their fifth game in their last six with their 73-60 victory against Minnesota as an 11.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa allowed the Badgers to make 50.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. The Hawkeyes should bounce back tonight as they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a loss on the road. And while Iowa has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games including the last four of these circumstances. The Hawkeyes are an outstanding offensive team that ranks third in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They make the most of their scoring opportunities as they lead the nation with the lowest turnover rate in the nation. Iowa also leads the nation with the lowest block rate in the country — and that is a great attribute to have when facing the Hoosiers’ Trayce Jackson-Davis who blocks 10.5% of the shots in his direction this season. Iowa returns home where they are 9-1 with an average winning margin of +24.2 net Points-Per-Game. The Hawkeyes made 49.5% of his shots at home which generates 93.1 PPG. They also hold their opponents to just 68.8 PPG on 40.8% shooting. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they are 15-6-3 ATS in their last 24 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win against a Big Ten opponent. The Hoosiers preceded their victory against the Golden Gophers with a 67-51 win at home against Ohio State — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row against conference foes. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games after winning two straight games by double-digits against conference opponents. Indiana is too loose with the basketball — they turn the ball over in 19.5% of their possessions, ranking 209th in the nation. The Hawkeyes do force turnovers — their opponents turn the ball over in 20.0% of their possessions, ranking 107th in the country. Now the Hoosiers go back on the road for just the fifth time in a true road game. They have lost three of those four games while making just 44.7% of their shots. Indiana is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 60% on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: The Hoosiers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored. 25* CBB Thursday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (840) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (839). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-07-22 |
Brown +3.5 v. Harvard |
Top |
84-73 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Brown Bears (879) plus the points versus the Harvard Crimson (880). THE SITUATION: Brown (8-8) has lost four games in a row after their 77-73 upset loss to Pennsylvania as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Harvard (8-4) is on a three-game winning streak after their 77-69 win against Howard as a 7-point favorite back on December 21st.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Harvard has had their last three scheduled games postponed because of COVID issues. They face rust concerns taking the court for the first time in almost three weeks. As it is, the Crimson have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Harvard plays their fourth straight game at home but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning their last two games on their home court. This is the Ivy League debut for the Crimson who have played a pretty light schedule that ranks 303rd most difficult according to the metrics at kenpom. They are making only 40.7% of their shots in their last five games — and they have a 43.3% field goal percentage in their seven home games. Harvard has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Crimson will not have the advantage of cheering fans either given the restriction of fans attending games given COVID regulations. Head coach Tommy Amaker recruits well for this team — but Brown head coach Mike Martin has followed his lead by bringing long and athletic talent to his program which makes this team stand out in the league. Led by the reigning Defensive Player of the Year (when the Ivy last played in 2019-20) in Jaylen Gainey who protects the rim down low, the Bears ranks 117th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. That defensive ranking is more impressive considering that Brown ranks 110th in strength of schedule at kenpom. The Bears have beaten Bradley on a neutral court while losing to North Carolina by just a 94-87 score (with the score tied going into the final ten minutes of the game) and losing to Colorado by just two points. Brown has also played Creighton, Maryland, Syracuse, and Vermont — this is a battle-tested group. They were without their top playmaker, Tamenang Cho in four early games including the narrow loss in Chapel Hill. Having played three times since Christmas, Martin’s team is in midseason form. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing four of their last five games. And while they have played seven straight Overs, they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 road games after playing at least two straight Overs. Brown is 4-6 on the road this season — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Brown swept the two regular-season games against Harvard in 2019 before the season got canceled because of COVID. The Bears have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Harvard has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against Ivy League opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Brown Bears (879) plus the points versus the Harvard Crimson (880). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-06-22 |
Texas-Arlington v. Georgia State -7.5 |
Top |
70-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (760) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (759). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (6-5) has lost four of their last six games after their 72-62 loss to Georgia Tech in overtime as a 5-point underdog on December 21st. UT-Arlington (6-7) won their third straight game with their 62-57 victory against Troy as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia State made only 28.2% of their shots against the Yellow Jackets which was the worst shooting effort of the season. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. And while the Panthers got outrebounded by a 51-33 margin, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after getting outrebounded by at least 15 boards in their last game. Georgia State returns all five starters from the group that lost in the Sun Belt Conference tournament championship game last season. COVID has slowed this team down so far this season but they are mostly healthy now in making their conference debut tonight. They are 4-0 at home where they are outscoring their opponents by a whopping +39.0 net Points-Per-Game. The Panthers make 48.9% of their shots at home which is generating 88.0 PPG — and they are holding their opponents just 33.8% shooting and 49.0 PPG. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. The Panthers are 25th in the nation by making 38.0% of their 3-point shots — and they nail 39.4% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. UT-Arlington is 250th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 34.8% of their shots from behind the arc — and they rank 272nd in the nation with their opponents making 37.0% of their shots from 3-point range when playing away from home. The Mavericks played their second-best defensive game of the season by holding the Trojans to 30.0% shooting — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after holding their last opponent to no better than 33% shooting. UT-Arlington has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning three of their last four games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when playing their second game in a seven-day span. They go back on the road for the first time since December 19th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games after playing their last three games on the road. The Mavericks are just 1-6 on the road where they are scoring only 55.1 PPG on 37.3% shooting. They are getting outscored by -16.8 PPG on the road. UT-Arlington has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia State should force plenty of turnovers tonight — they rank 46th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.0% of their opponent’s possessions. UT-Arlington is 324th in the nation by turning the ball over in 22.5% of their possessions — and they have turned it over in 23.1% of their possessions on the road. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month with the Georgia State Panthers (760) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (759). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-04-22 |
Kentucky v. LSU -2 |
Top |
60-65 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (622) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (621). THE SITUATION: LSU (12-1) lost their first game of the season in a 70-55 loss at Auburn as a 4.5-point underdog on December 22nd. Kentucky (11-2) has won four games in a row with their 92-48 victory against High Point as a 27-point favorite on December 31st.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: LSU should respond with a strong effort as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with five or six days of rest. The Tigers played their worst game of the season against Auburn. Their 28.6% shooting percentage was the lowest of the season for them — and the 43.4% mark they allowed those Tigers to hit was actually their worst defensive effort of the year. LSU is the top-rated team in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at KenPom. They return home where they are 8-0 this season with an average winning margin of +32.7 Points-Per-Game. They score 84.6 PPG on 49.4% shooting from the field. They hold their guests to 32.1% shooting and just 51.9 PPG. They are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games at home — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games when favored. The Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Kentucky shot 59.1% from the field against High Point which was the best shooting mark for them all season. And the 31.1% shooting they allowed was also the best defensive mark for them all year. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Kentucky has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after winning at least three games in a row. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Wildcats play their first road game away from home since December 11th. Kentucky is just 1-2 away from home this season — and they allow teams not playing in their Rupp Arena to make 47.1% of their shots. The Wildcats are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Kentucky does not get to the free-throw line either — they rank 320nd in the nation in free throw rate. Not getting freebies against a team that is so good on defense will be tough.
FINAL TAKE: LSU has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Game of the Month with the LSU Tigers (622) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (621). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-21 |
Warriors v. Suns -5.5 |
Top |
116-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 5:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (590) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (589). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (26-5) has won five straight games after their 113-101 victory against Oklahoma City as a 15-point favorite on Thursday. Golden State (26-6) has won five of their last six games after their 113-104 victory against Memphis as a 5.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix won five of their seven games played without Devin Booker who was out with an injury. Booker returned to the court three games ago in a 137-106 victory against Charlotte on Sunday before the Suns beat the Lakers in Los Angeles by a 108-90 score on Tuesday. Booker scored 30 points on Thursday against the Thunder. Phoenix is 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after winning at least two games in a row by 10 or more points. The Suns stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Phoenix has built off their NBA Finals run by consistently playing tough on the defensive end of the court. They are second in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last five opponents to just 100.4 Points-Per-Game on 40.6% shooting from the field. The Suns will be without Frank Kaminsky and Abdel Nader to injury — but it is the Warriors who are more depleted by positive COVID tests right now. Golden State will be without Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins, and Damion Lee who are all in quarantine. Poole and Wiggins are playing important supporting roles for this team. Andre Iguodala is questionable as well with a knee injury — and if he does not play, they are missing players on the wing. The Warriors come off their best defensive effort in their last four games on Thursday after holding the Grizzlies to just 42.2% shooting. Golden State is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win. The Warriors go back on the road where they have lost four of their six games. They are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix held Stephen Curry to just 4 of 21 shooting in the first meeting between these two teams that they won by a 104-96 score on November 30th. The Suns the rematch on December 3rd by a 118-96 score without Booker with his injury earlier this month. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 7 straight games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games when avenging a loss by double-digits. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Television Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (590) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (589). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-22-21 |
Arizona v. Tennessee |
Top |
73-77 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (752) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Wildcats (751). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (8-2) has won two in a row after their 96-52 victory against USC Upstate as a 35.5-point favorite on December 14th. Arizona (11-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 84-60 victory against Cal-Baptist as a 28-point favorite on December 18th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on their home court — and they are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games after a win by 20 or more points. This is an outstanding defensive team that ranks second in the nation at kenpom in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last four opponents to 36.8% or lower shooting from the field. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after not allowing their two opponents to make no better than 37% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing their last three opponents to make more than 37% of their shots. They have generated 15 and 13 steals in each of their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 20 home games after registering double-digit steals in two straight games. The Volunteers are 6-0 on their home court with an average winning margin of +32.8 net Points-Per-Game average margin of victory. The conventional wisdom regarding Tennessee is that they struggle against elite defenses. But their two losses this season to Villanova and Texas Tech in overtime were both on neutral courts. They have also beaten North Carolina on a neutral court and Colorado in Boulder. Back home in Knoxville, the Volunteers make 49.1% of their shots and score 87.0 PPG. They also make 41.7% of their shots from 3-point range at home as compared to their 23.2% shooting clip from behind the arc when on the road. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored overall. Arizona held Cal-Baptist to just 33.3% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game at home where they won but did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Additionally, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least eight games in their last ten contests — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after winning at least three straight games. The Wildcats have beaten Illinois on the road in Champagne and Michigan on a neutral court in Las Vegas — but they needed overtime to defeat Wichita State in that same tournament in Vegas the night before beating the Wolverines. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games as an underdog getting up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: It has been a surprising start for first-year head coach Tommy Lloyd — but this will be the biggest test for the former Gonzaga assistant who has brought in several transfer players to Tuscon to form an interesting squad. The Wildcats are just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in December. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Tennessee Volunteers (752) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Wildcats (751). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-11-21 |
Mississippi State v. Colorado State |
Top |
63-66 |
Loss |
-116 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (625) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Colorado State Rams (626). THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (6-2) had their two-game winning streak end in an 81-76 upset loss to Minnesota as an 11.5-point favorite on Sunday. Colorado State (9-0) remained undefeated this season after their 74-58 win against Saint Mary’s as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Mississippi State probably played their worst game of the season against the Golden Gophers. Their 43.7% shooting percentage was the second-lowest of the year — and the 49.2% shooting mark by Minnesota was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage this season. Head coach Ben Howland should have his team prepared for this contest. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by six points or less. Mississippi State has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss. The Bulldogs have not covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. This team should play well on a neutral court — they pull down 37.6% of their missed shots, ranking 12th best in the nation. Colorado State comes off their biggest win of the season in what was their second straight victory by double-digits. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. And while Colorado State has covered the points spread in two straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Rams lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 61.3% fueled by them nailing 44.0% of their shots from behind the arc, the best 3-point shooting percentage in the country. But seven of Colorado State’s nine games have been at home. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Rams go back on the road for just the third time this season. Colorado State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their three previous games at home. The Rams have seen their 3-point shooting drop to 40.3% away from home — and now they face this Bulldogs team that holds their opponents to just 31.9% shooting from 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado State is vulnerable on defense as they rank 104th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on a neutral court as an underdog. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, Colorado State is 2-5-1 ATS. 25* CBB ESPNU Game of the Month with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (625) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Colorado State Rams (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-08-21 |
Marquette +2 v. Kansas State |
Top |
64-63 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Marquette Golden Eagles (711) plus the point(s) versus the Kansas State (712). Marquette (7-2) looks to rebound from an 89-76 loss at Wisconsin as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas State (5-2) comes off a 65-59 upset win at Wichita State as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN EAGLES PLUS THE POINT(S): Marquette allowed the Badgers to make 50.8% of their shots on Saturday in what was their worst defensive performance of the season. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 road games after a double-digit loss on the road. Marquette has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after a game where both teams scored at least 75 points. The Golden Eagles have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. First-year head coach Shaka Smart has this team playing like his “Havoc” teams at Virginia Commonwealth at a rapid pace and with a full-court 1-2-2 pressing zone. The Eagles lead the nation by averaging only 14.8 seconds per possession. Smart did not inherit a returning starter from last season — under 20% of the production from last year returned. But he did bring in Darryl Morsell from Maryland after he won the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Award last season. Smart’s Havoc tactics help to compensate for the lack of experience. Marquette has already pulled off upset victories against Illinois, West Virginia, and Mississippi. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. Smart’s teams are 41-23-1 ATS in his last 65 road games as an underdog — and his teams have covered the point spread in eight of their last eleven games on the road as an underdog going back to last season with Texas. Kansas State appears to be without their leading scorer Nigel Pack who is in the concussion protocol. He is scoring 15.8 Points-Per-Game while nailing 49.6% of their shots from 3-point range. Pack did not play in their upset win against the Shockers - but they only made 33.9% of their shots in the win. The Wildcats hosts this game at Bramage Coliseum — but the home fans are not quite as rowdy in non-conference games in December as they will be once the Big 12 schedule begins. As it is, Kansas State is just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games at home. Furthermore, the Wildcats are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 home games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when laying up to six points. Kansas State has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Marquette should have an edge at the charity stripe tonight. The Golden Eagles rank 15th in the nation in free throw rate — and Kansas State is 227th in defensive free throw rate in putting their opponent on the line. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Marquette Golden Eagles (711) plus the point(s) versus the Kansas State (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-21 |
Gonzaga v. UCLA +7 |
Top |
83-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 3 m |
Show
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At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (618) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (617) in the Finals of the Empire Classic tournament. THE SITUATION: UCLA (5-0) has opened the season with five straight victories after their 75-62 victory against Bellarmine last night in their opening game in this two-day tournament. Gonzaga (5-0) has won five games in a row to open the season with their 107-54 win against Central Michigan as a 34-point favorite last night in their first game in this event. The Empire Classic takes place on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: UCLA continues to be undervalued by the market after their improbable run to the Final Four last season. The Bruins were the beneficiaries of some shooting luck in the NCAA Tournament — but shooting luck did not account for them going blow-for-blow with that loaded Gonzaga team in the National Semifinals. UCLA improved as the season went on under second-year head coach Mick Cronin teaching his defensive principles in a season marred by COVID. The Bruins return three players that are on the preseason Wooden Award watch list in Johnny Juzang (who single-handedly beat Michigan in the Elite Eight), Tyger Campbell (started every game at point guard for Cronin at UCLA), and Jamie Jaquez, Jr. (last year’s second-leading scorer). Cronin won’t have big man Cody Riley tonight as he recovers from an MCL injury — but he brought in Myles Johnson as a transfer from Rutgers with his seven-foot-seven wingspan. He was 19th in the nation last year in block rate. Peyton Watson is a top-ten recruit who also gets added into the mix of a group that has 91% of the returning minutes back from the Final Four team. This is a loaded group that continues to improve under Cronin. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. UCLA only made 45.2% of their shots last night which was the worst shooting effort for them so far this season — and the 45.1% shooting they allowed last night was the second-highest of the year. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss after failing to cover the 22.5-point spread last night. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Gonzaga held the Chippewas to just 30.4% shooting last night which was the best defensive effort of the season. After a 12-point win against Texas in their second game of the year, the Bulldogs have won their next three games by at least 27 points — but that was against a Bellarmine team ranked 188th in the nation in KenPom’s rankings. Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning three in a row by at least 15 points. They have covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after only failing to cover the point spread once in their last four games. And while they have scored at least 84 points in each of their games this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after scoring at least 80 points in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games on the road after scoring at least 80 points in five straight games. Gonzaga’s stiffest competition was against a Texas team under new coach Chris Beard coaching a group of high-profile transfers. That Longhorns team is a few months away from successfully executing Beard’s no-middle defense that attempts to trap the ball to one side of the court. Gambling on that guess was pure guesswork early in the season (which is why I tend to embrace caution in the November CBB games — especially with the transfer market now even busier in the offseason). What was telling in that game, for me, was that the Zag’s 7’0 freshman phenom Chet Holmgren made just one of three shots for 2 points. I think it remains to be seen if he is a good fit when playing on the floor with the 6’10 Drew Timme. The twin towers look is not as successful for modern basketball — and Holmgren’s ability to defend the perimeter is an issue (and it is not a strength for Timme). Gonzaga should be great once again this year — but this group is a work in progress for head coach Mark Few after losing a top-five pick in Jalen Suggs along with two other starters in outside shooter Corey Krispert and a glue guy in Joel Ayayi.
FINAL TAKE: UCLA’s victory over Villanova this season is more impressive than Gonzaga’s win over the Longhorns. Cronin will have his team very motivated to avenge their 93-90 loss to the Bulldogs in the Final Four last year — and he has had all the off-season to scheme a defensive play against Timme. The Bruins are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog. UCLA has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Game of the Month with the UCLA Bruins (618) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (617). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-19-21 |
Pacers +1.5 v. Hornets |
Top |
118-121 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (513) plus the point(s) versus the Charlotte Hornets (514). THE SITUATION: Indiana (6-10) has lost two in a row after their 97-89 upset loss at Detroit as a 6.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Charlotte (9-7) has won four in a row with their 97-87 win against Washington as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Indiana should respond with a strong effort under head coach Rick Carlisle in his first-year back with the organization. The Pacers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after an upset loss to a Central Division rival as a favorite laying at least six points. Indiana has not had their shots fall in their last two games as they have not even reached 90 points in their last two games. They are still averaging 106.3 PPG. The Pacers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to score at least 105 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score in triple digits in two straight games. Indiana started the season slow by losing five of their first six games. Since Caris LeVert was healthy enough to take the court in their seventh game, the Pacers have ranked 13th in the league in Net Efficiency Margin. Five of their losses have been by four points or less — and they did upset Utah and Philadelphia last week before this recent rough patch. Carlisle has this team playing better on defense. They have held five of their last eight opponents to 100 or fewer points — and only one of their last six opponents has made more than 43.0% of their shots. Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams with winning records. Charlotte had pulled off three straight upset wins against Memphis, New York, and Golden State before their victory against the Wizards on Wednesday. We had Washington in that game — and the expected shot quality data from that game projected the Wizards to win by 11 points (for what that is worth). While the Hornets’ defensive field goal percentage of 36.7% in that game was their best mark of the season, the shot quality data suggests that had more to do with Washington having a bad night shooting the basketball than it being about the play of the Charlotte defense. The Hornets rank just 25th in the league in Defensive Efficiency. A letdown is likely. Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win at home. The Hornets have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 95 points in their last game. And in their last 11 games after winning at least three in a row, Charlotte has lost 7 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: In their last ten games, the Hornets only rank 20th in Net Efficiency Margin. They did beat the Pacers at home on October 20th by a 123-122 score — but Indiana has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when motivated by revenge. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Underdog of the Month with the Indiana Pacers (513) plus the point(s) versus the Charlotte Hornets (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-17-21 |
Wizards +1 v. Hornets |
Top |
87-97 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 17 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Washington Wizards (559) plus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (560). THE SITUATION: Washington (10-3) has won five games in a row with their 105-100 win against New Orleans as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. Charlotte (8-7) has won three straight games with their 106-102 upset win against Golden State as a 5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WIZARDS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington has been one of the biggest surprises of the NBA this season. Led by Bradley Beal, the Wizards made the playoffs last season. And while he is no longer playing alongside a second superstar in Russell Westbrook, the haul Washington got back in trading him to the Lakers has given this team intriguing depth. The Wizards brought back Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Montrezl Harrell in the deal — and they also added Spencer Dinwiddie via free agency in the offseason. Rookie head coach Wes Unseld, Jr. has done a great job with this team — especially on the defensive end the court. Washington is fourth in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency — and they are seventh in the league in Net Rating. Washington has won their last two games with Bradley Beal who has taken personal time after the death of his grandmother. Beal returns to the court tonight — and he should be playing with extra emotion. As it is, the Wizards have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 games after a point spread victory. And while their game with the Pelicans finished Under the 208 Total, they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after playing Under the Total in their last game. And while Washington has won eight of their last ten games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They go back on the road where they are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games. Charlotte has pulled off three straight upset wins after beating Memphis by 10 points and Golden State by 8 points before their 4-point win against the Warriors. But the Hornets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning three in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after pulling off three straight upset wins. Charlotte made 47.7% of their shots against the Warriors in what was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. The Hornets are second in the NBA by making 37.3% of their shots from behind the arc — but the Wizards lead the league by containing their opponents to just 30.7% shooting from downtown. Charlotte stays at home where they are 4-2 this season — but they are outscoring their guest by only +1.9 PPG. They are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games with the Total set in the 220-229.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Hornets need to being hitting their 3s since they rank 26th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. Charlotte has been inconsistent this season — but they are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. 25* NBA Southeast Division Underdog of the Month with the Washington Wizards (559) plus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-12-21 |
Knicks -1.5 v. Hornets |
Top |
96-104 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (555) minus the point(s) versus the Charlotte Hornets (556). THE SITUATION: New York (7-5) has lost four of their last six games with their 112-100 upset loss to Milwaukee as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Charlotte (6-7) snapped their five-game losing streak with a 118-108 upset win at Memphis as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: New York should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss. The Knicks added scoring punch to their playoff team last year by acquiring Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier. The new starting backcourt for head coach Tom Thibodeau has created scoring depth for this team — they rank fifth in the league in Offensive Efficiency. New York goes on the road where they are 5-1 this season. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. Charlotte played their best defensive game of the season by holding their opponents to just 42.5% of their shots. The Hornets still rank 28th in the league in Defensive Efficiency. They also made 45.6% of their shots which was the second-highest shooting percentage in their last six games. But Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. They return home where they have failed to cover the pint spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games with the Total set at 220 to 229.5 point range. Furthermore, Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 38 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Road Warrior of the Month with the New York Knicks (555) minus the point(s) versus the Charlotte Hornets (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-10-21 |
Heat -4 v. Lakers |
Top |
117-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 7 m |
Show
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At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (547) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (548). THE SITUATION: Miami (7-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 113-96 upset loss at Denver as a 1.5-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (6-5) has won four of their last six games with their 126-123 win against Charlotte as a 2-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: The Heat made only 39.7% of their shots against the Nuggets in what was the second-worst shooting performance in their last six games. But Miami still ranks third in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Tyler Herro has bounced back from a sophomore slump last year to lead the team in scoring in the preseason and carry over that momentum into the regular season. He is scoring 20.3 PPG after his first ten games giving the Heat a scoring punch off the bench. Frankly, the Heat should be given a pass for taking a step back last year after their surprising run to the NBA Finals in the bubble in the fall of 2020. The shortened offseason did not help a team that was later hit hard by COVID and injuries — and then they caught a Milwaukee team in the playoffs motivated to avenge their playoff loss to Miami in the bubble. The Heat also made a couple of nice additions in the offseason to add Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker which gives the team toughness and more defensive acumen. The Heat rank sixth in the NBA Defensive Efficiency. This group is a serious contender to win the Eastern Conference and get back to the NBA Finals. Miami has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread loss. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. The Lakers are playing without LeBron James who is out indefinitely with an abdominal injury. LA is significantly worse without James. Entering the week, the Lakers were outscoring their opponents by +2.9 points per 100 possessions with James on the court — but they are getting outscored by -4.7 points per 100 possessions when James is not on the court. Los Angeles is scoring 10 points fewer per 100 possessions without James on the court. The play of the Lakers’ defense has also been a problem even with James healthy. After leading the league in Defensive Efficiency last season, Los Angeles ranks just 14th in efficiency this season. They are allowing their opponents to pull down 28.8% of their missed shots ranking 24th in the NBA — and the Heat is fourth in the league by rebounding 30.3% of their missed shots. LA also ranks last in the league in opponent free throw rate — and Miami is third in free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home in the Staples Center — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are dealing with injuries — but the allure of playing on national television should help some of these players listed as questionable to take the court. Jimmy Butler is ready to roll. The Lakers are still without Talent Horton-Tucker and Trevor Ariza who are important for both depth and better play on defense. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when getting the points. Miami is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games when favored. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Game of the Month with the Miami Heat (547) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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