01-28-20 |
Purdue v. Rutgers -2.5 |
Top |
63-70 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (628) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (627). THE SITUATION: Rutgers (15-5) has won three of their last four games with their 75-72 win over Nebraska as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (11-9) snapped a two-game losing streak last Friday with their 70-57 victory over Wisconsin as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SCARLET KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Boilermakers are likely due for a letdown after playing one of their best games of the season against the Badgers. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Boilermakers ave failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road after a win over a Big Ten opponent. But Purdue has still only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Now this team goes back on the road where they have a completely different team than they are at home where they are 9-2 this season at Mackey Arena. But the Boilermakers are just 2-7 on the road where they are being outscored by -6.0 PPG. Purdue is not a good shooting team — they are 256th in the nation in effective field goal percentage and that number drops to 42.9% in Big Ten play which is last in the conference. The Boilermakers also have the worst Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the Big Ten. Their shooting is even worse away from home as they are making just 35.4% of their shots which is resulting in just 58.3 PPG. Pursue has an effective field goal percentage of 39.5% on the road which is 348th in the nation. They make only 23.8% of their 3-pointers on the road while making just 41.5% of their shots inside the arc on the road which ranks 345th and 327th in the nation. The Boilermakers also make things very difficult for themselves on the road by not getting to the free-throw line — they rank 329th in the nation with a Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 21.3%. Purdue is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 road games against Big Ten opponents. Rutgers is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a victory over a Big Ten opponent. And while the Scarlet Knights have won nine of their last eleven games, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning at least four or five of their last six games. Rutgers won seven games in Big Ten play last season with head coach Steve Pikiell returns seven of the top eight scorers from that team. The Scarlet Knights stay at home where they are 14-0 with an average winning margin of +17.1 PPG. This Rutgers team plays outstanding defense as they rank 9th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Scarlet Knights hold their guests to just 35.6% shooting on their home court which results in 56.0 PPG. Rutgers rank 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. They will make things very difficult for the Boilermakers’ shooters as they rank 20th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.0%.
FINAL TAKE: The Scarlet Knights have already defeated Seton Hall, Penn State, Indiana, and Minnesota on their home court — metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks all four of those teams in the top 39 teams in the nation. Purdue is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (628) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (627). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-20 |
Cavs v. Pistons OVER 218 |
Top |
115-100 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (527) and the Detroit Pistons (528). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (12-34) has lost seven straight games after their 118-106 loss to Chicago on Saturday as a 1-point favorite. Detroit (17-30) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 121-111 loss to Brooklyn on Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Cleveland has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Defense has been a significant problem for this team under first-year head coach John Beilein. The Cavaliers have allowed their last five opponents to make 52.2% of their shots from the field. Cleveland now goes back on the road where their home hosts are making 49.5% of their shots which has translated into 115.4 PPG. The Cavaliers gave played 12 of their last 17 road games Over the Total. Cleveland has also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Detroit has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread setback. The Pistons made only 41.3% of their shots on Friday which was the lowest field goal percentage for them in their last six contests. Detroit does expect to get Reggie Jackson back tonight as he is listed as probable despite his back issues. The Pistons stay at home where they are making 47.5% of their shots which has resulted in 111.9 PPG. Detroit is also allowing its visitors to score 112.1 PPG on 47.2% shooting from the field. The Pistons have played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, Detroit has played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 straight meetings Over the Total. Expect another high scoring game between these two teams. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (527) and the Detroit Pistons (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-20 |
North Carolina v. NC State -5.5 |
Top |
75-65 |
Loss |
-109 |
22 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (866) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (865). THE SITUATION: NC State (14-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 64-58 loss at Georgia Tech as a 1-point underdog. North Carolina (9-10) snapped their five-game losing streak with their 94-71 win at home against Miami (FL) as a 7-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK MINUS THE POINTS: NC State should respond with a strong effort as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Wolfpack have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 48 games after a loss on the road where they did not score at least 60 points. And while NC State has only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. This is an experienced team that returned six of their top seven starters from last year's 24-win team. The Wolfpack are 11-1 on their home court where they are outscoring their opponents by +14.3 PPG. NC State holds its opponents to just 40.4% shooting on their home court which has resulted in only 64.3 PPG. The Wolfpack have also held their last five opponents to just 38.1% shooting. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread 9 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. The Tar Heels made 58.1% of their shots which was by far the best shooting performance of this team all season — the next highest field goal percentage they enjoyed was in their first game of the season where they made 46.7% of their shots against Notre Dame. But North Carolina is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Yet this remains a highly disappointing season for head coach Roy Williams who lost his top five scorers from last year’s team. Injuries have further exposed the talent deficit on the roster this season. Veteran big man Sterling Manley and four-star freshman Anthony Harris are out the season with injuries. But the biggest loss has been with five-star freshman guard Cole Anthony who has out for a month and a half with a knee injury. At one point, Anthony was considered the possible number one pick in the June NBA draft. The Tar Heels go back on the road where they are just 4-5 this season while making only 40.4% of their shots. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on their home court. North Carolina has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in those last three situations. The Tar Heels only make 27.6% of their shots from behind the arc in true road games which is 308th in the nation — and their 43.7% effective field goal percentage in true road games is just 304th in the country. North Carolina only makes 58.2% of their free throws in hostile environments as well which is 304th in the nation. The Tar Heels try to make up for these shooting deficiencies by crashing the offensive glass — they are out-rebounding their opponents by +9.4 RPG. North Carolina out-rebounded the Hurricanes on Saturday by a 41 to 21 margin — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after out-rebounding their last opponent by at least 20 boards. Furthermore, NC State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams that out-rebound their opponents by at least +5.0 RPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Wolfpack are outscoring their opponents by +7.2 PPG while holding these foes to just 41.9% shooting from the field. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 42% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +4.0 PPG. 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Game of the Month with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (866) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (865). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-26-20 |
Celtics v. Pelicans +1.5 |
Top |
108-123 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 6:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (516) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Boston Celtics (515). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (17-29) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 113-106 loss to Denver as a 4-point favorite on Friday. Boston (30-14) has won three straight games with their 109-98 upset win at Orlando on Friday as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): New Orleans shot just 46.3% of their shots in their loss to the Nuggets which was their worst shooting effort in their last five games. The Pelicans are still scoring a robust 123.4 PPG over their last five games while making 49.9% of their shots. New Orleans has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. This team has been jumpstarted by the debut of rookie phenom Zion Williamson who has averaged 18.5 PPG while rebounding 6.5 RPG despite not playing 20 minutes per game in his first two contests. His presence on the court should provide plenty of energy and enthusiasm for this team. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Pelicans are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as a dog. Furthermore, New Orleans is 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Boston has won their last three games all by at least 11 points — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning at least three in a row by double-digits. And while the Celtics have covered the point spread in all three of those games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. Boston held the Magic to just 40% shooting on Friday which tied for the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed in their last fourteen games. Yet this team is not playing at full strength with Enes Kantor still out with a foot injury while both Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are questionable with an ankle and groin issues. The Pelicans are allowing 117.6 PPG this season — but the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 42 games in the second half of the season against teams who allow at least 110 PPG. Boston has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games with the Total set at 230 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans will be looking to avenge a brutal 140-105 loss in Boston back on January 11th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss on the road by at least 20 points. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break ESPN Game of the Year with the New Orleans Pelicans (516) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Boston Celtics (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-25-20 |
Lakers v. 76ers +4 |
Top |
91-108 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (510) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (509). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (29-17) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their 107-95 loss at Toronto as a 6.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (36-9) has won two straight games as well as twelve of their last fourteen contests with their 128-113 win at Brooklyn as a 5.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a double-digit loss to Atlantic Division rivals. The 76ers have also still covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning three of their last four contests. Philly will be undermanned for this showdown with Joel Embiid missing his ninth straight game with his finger injury and now Josh Richardson will be out with a hamstring — but this puts the onus on Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris to raise their games. The Sixers have played surprisingly well without Embiid as Simmons has stepped up to be the best player on the team in his absence while Al Horford has gotten to play more minutes with his role on the team being perhaps too duplicative to that of Embiid when both are healthy and on the court. Now after playing their last three games on the road, Philadelphia returns home where they are 20-2 with an average winning margin of +9.9 PPG. The Sixers made only 38.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the lowest field goal percentage for them in their last six games. Philly should shoot better tonight back at home where they are nailing 48% of their shots. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 36 of their last 53 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Los Angeles nailed 50% of their shots on Thursday in what was the best offensive performance in their last five games. The Lakers are just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing with one day of rest. Los Angeles is also playing their fifth straight game on the road and third in five days as they conclude this east coast swing tonight. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing their third game on the road in five days. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games against teams from the Eastern Conference. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers will not be at full strength tonight either with JaVale McGee questionable with an illness and Anthony Davis questionable once again with a gluteus injury. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as the favorite. Philly has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home as the underdog. Expect a close game that the Sixers will have an opportunity to win. 25* NBA Saturday ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Philadelphia 76ers (510) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (509). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-25-20 |
TCU v. Arkansas -6.5 |
Top |
67-78 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (692) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (691). THE SITUATION: Arkansas (14-4) has lost two straight games with their 72-70 loss at Mississippi State as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday. TCU (13-5) snapped a two-game losing streak on Tuesday with their 65-54 upset victory over Texas Tech as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAZORBACKS MINUS THE POINTS: Arkansas needs to get focused back on sharing the basketball to establish better looking shots — they have managed only 12 and 8 assists in each of their last two games. The Razorbacks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not generating more than 12 team assists in two straight games. Arkansas only attempted 11 free throws on Wednesday as well while the Bulldogs got to the line 31 times which resulted in a -21 point differential for them at the line. The Razorbacks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a game where they attempted at least 20 fewer free throws than their opponent. Arkansas returns home where they are 10-1 this season with an average winning main of +17.9 PPG. The Razorbacks are playing sound fundamental defense under first-year head coach Eric Musselman who came over from Nevada — they are holding their guests to just 56.9 PPG on 38.4% shooting on their home court. Arkansas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage at 40% or less on the road. The Razorbacks are 20th in the nation in forcing turnovers in 23.5% of their opponent’s possessions — and the Horned Frogs are vulnerable on this front as they turn the ball over in 20.2% of their possessions (238th in the nation) with that mark being even worse in Big 12 play at a 21.9% clip. TCU also likes to force turnovers — they are 26th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.5% of their opponent’s possessions. But good luck forcing turnovers against this Arkansas team that leads the SEC by turning the ball over in just 12.2% of their possessions. The Horned Frogs made 46.9% of their shots in their upset win over the Red Raiders which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after pulling off an upset win in conference play. The Horned Frogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up victory. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 2-3 with an average losing margin of -7.0 PPG. TCU is likely to get a visit from the Regression Gods this afternoon when it comes to their shots falling as they make only 37.0% of their shots away from home. They are also nailing just 36.8% of their shots over their last five games. Jamie Dixon’s team is taking 49.5% of their shots from behind the arc in Big 12 play — but that will be a chore against this Razorbacks’ team that leads the nation by holding their opponents to just 23.9% shooting from behind the arc. The Horned Frogs had also allowed their previous two opponents to make 53.7% and 57.7% of their shots before holding Texas Tech to just 43.1% shooting. TCU ranks a dismal 347th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 58.7% when they are playing on the road. The Horned Frogs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. TCU has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: The Horned Frogs are just 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 road games as an underdog. And while they hold their opponents to 62.3 PPG, Arkansas has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 48 home games after fifteen games into the season against opponents who do not allow more than 64 PPG. 25* CBB Big 12/SEC Challenge Game of the Year with the Arkansas Razorbacks (692) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (691). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-25-20 |
Illinois v. Michigan -4 |
Top |
64-62 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (610) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (609). THE SITUATION: Michigan (11-7) has lost three straight games as well as four of their last five contests after their 72-63 upset loss at home to Penn State on Wednesday as a 4.5-point favorite. Illinois (14-5) has won five straight games with their 79-62 win at Purdue as a 5.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan made only 35.3% of their shots against the Nittany Lions which was the worst shooting effort in their last ten games — and it was their lowest field goal percentage they have generated all season when playing on their home court. The Wolverines certainly miss Isaiah Livers who has been over a month with a groin injury. But keep in mind that three of the four losses they have suffered over their last five games have been on the road in the rugged Big Ten against teams who all are projected to make the NCAA Tournament. This is a battled tested team that is desperate for a victory this afternoon. Michigan did defeat a good Purdue team at home this month even without Livers by a 84-78 score in their other home game this month before this contest. Even without Livers in five of their seven Big Ten contests so far this season, they are still 2nd in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Look for the Wolverines to respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after suffering an upset loss. They are also 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread loss. Michigan is 8-2 on their home court with an average winning margin of +15.7 PPG. They are making 49.2% of their shots on their home court which has translated into 83.1 PPG — so the Wolverines should nail more of their shots than they did on Wednesday. Michigan is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games at home — and they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 22 home games against Big Ten foes, the Wolverines have covered the point spread 16 times. Illinois nailed 55.1% of their shots in their upset win on the road against the Boilermakers which was the best shooting mark they have enjoyed in their last twelve games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. The Fighting Illini are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a point spread victory. The Illini stay on the road where they are 3-4 this season while making only 42.3% of their shots. Illinois make only 28.2% of their 3-pointers away from home which is 292nd in the nation. The Fighting Illini are 11th in the Big Ten with an effective field goal percentage of 46.1%. And Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 37 road games with the Total set in the 135.5 to 139 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan will also be motivated to avenge a 71-62 loss at Illinois back on December 11th where they were 1.5-point underdogs. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games then playing with revenge from a loss on the road. Michigan still has their wily veteran point guard leader in Xavier Simpson along with big man Jon Teske and a cadre of scrappy role players that rookie head coach Juwan Howard has done a good job in empowering this season. 25* CBB FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Michigan Wolverines (610) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (609). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-24-20 |
Marquette v. Butler -6 |
Top |
85-89 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Butler Bulldogs (868) minus the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (867). THE SITUATION: Butler (15-4) has lost three games in a row with their 76-61 loss at Villanova as a 3.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Marquette (14-5) has won three in a row with their 82-68 win over St. John’s as an 8-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Butler needs to stop their three-game losing streak in Big East play but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after losing three in a row to conference rivals. And their loss at Villanova came upon the heels of a 13-point upset loss at DePaul — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after suffering two straight double-digit losses to Big East rivals. Furthermore, while the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least three straight games. Butler returns home where they are 9-1 with an average winning margin of +17.0 PPG. The Bulldogs made only 40.6% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. They should shoot better tonight as they are making 47.8% of their shots at home which has resulted in 72.1 PPG. Butler has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 130s. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games as a favorite laying 6.5 to 9 points. This team is playing outstanding defense as they are 19th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They have held their last five opponents to just 39.2% shooting from the field — and they limit their guests to just 54.1 PPG on 36.0% shooting on their home court. Butler is vulnerable to teams that force turnovers as they are coughing it up in 20.2% of their conference possessions — but that is not this Golden Eagles team who only force turnovers in 12.4% of their Big East opponent’s possessions which is last in the conference. Marquette has scored at least 82 points in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 80 points in three straight games. And while they 20 fewer shots than the Red Storm on Tuesday, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after attempting at least 20 fewer shots than their opponent in their last contest. Now the Golden Eagles go back on the road where they are 4-4 but being outscored by -3.0 PPG. They make only 41.6% of their shots on the road — and they are making just 41.6% of their shots in their last five contests. Marquette has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Big East Game of the Month with the Butler Bulldogs (868) minus the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (867). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-24-20 |
Celtics v. Magic UNDER 213.5 |
Top |
109-98 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (563) and the Orlando Magic (564). THE SITUATION: Boston (29-14) has won two straight games with their 119-95 win over Memphis on Wednesday as a 7-point favorite. Orlando (21-24) has lost three of their last four games after their 120-114 loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Magic played their worst defensive game of the season on Wednesday against the Thunder as they allowed them to make 60.5% of their shots. Orlando has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 60% of their shots. The Magic have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Orlando has played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 6 points or less including four of these last five situations. The Magic also nailed 47.8% of their shots against the Thunder which was tied for second-best in their last nineteen contests. Now Orlando returns home where they are holding their opponents to just 43.9% shooting from the field. The Magic have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Orlando has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as a favorite. Boston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Celtics now go on the road where they are scoring 108.5 PPG on 44.1% shooting from the field — and those numbers are a bit below their 112.5 PPG scoring average overall on 46.1% shooting. Boston will be undermanned tonight with Jayson Tatum out with a groin injury along with Enes Kanter who is dealing with a foot injury — and Jaylen Brown is questionable with the ankle injury that he has been dealing with all month. That means more playing time for Marcus Smart who is an outstanding defender but inconsistent on the offensive end of the court. The Celtics have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and Boston has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing the Magic in Orlando. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (563) and the Orlando Magic (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-20 |
UCLA v. Oregon State -7.5 |
Top |
62-58 |
Loss |
-106 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oregon State Beavers (684) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (683). THE SITUATION: Oregon State (12-6) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 89-76 loss at Washington State as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. UCLA (9-9) snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday with their 50-40 win at home against California as a 9-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEAVERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oregon State allowed the Cougars to nail 50.9% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort of the season. The Beavers should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after a point spread setback. Oregon State is a strong offensive team that ranks 18th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Beavers take 44.2% of their shots at the rim which is the 20th highest mark in the nation. They also get to the free-throw line with a free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 40.4% which is 23rd in the nation. Oregon State should get to the free-throw line plenty of times tonight against this Bruins team that has an opponent’s FTA-to-FGA ratio of 37.9%. Now head coach Wayne Tinkle’s team returns home where they are 8-1 this season with an average winning margin of +14.0 PPG. The Beavers’ reliable method of generating points at the rim or the free-throw line has helped them score 80.8 PPG on their home court where they also make 50.4% of their shots. Oregon State also played solid defense at home as they limit their guests to just 40.7% shooting. The Beavers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. UCLA’s win against California was ugly by both teams. The Bruins made just 41.3% of their shots which happened to also be their best offensive effort in their last three games. The Golden Bears made only 30.4% of their shots which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last ten games. However, Cal probably needs to take more of the credit/blame for that ghastly number that the UCLA defense considering they experienced a scoreless spell lasting 10:59 minutes in that game. The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a straight-up victory. Now after playing their last three games at home, UCLA goes back on the road where they are 2-5 with an average losing margin of -4.5 PPG. The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after playing their last three games on the road. UCLA struggles to score points under first-year head coach Mick Cronin — they rank 252nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 47.4%. They are making only 42.3% of their shots on the road which has resulted in only 65.9 PPG in those seven games away from home. The Bruins are making just 40.6% of their shots in their last five contests. UCLA does get much of their offense from second-chance opportunities as they pul down 36.1% of their shots which is 13th best in the nation. The Beavers are doing a good job in Pac-12 play of limiting second-chance opportunities as are limiting conference opponents to rebounding just 26.1% of their missed shots. UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Bruins beat Washington earlier this season but they have also endured a bad loss at home to Cal-State Fullerton. UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. This Oregon State team returned four key contributors from last year’s group that finished 18-13 — and they have already register quality wins against Arizona, Colorado, and Iowa State at home in Corvallis. 25* CBB Thursday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Oregon State Beavers (684) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (683). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-20 |
Connecticut v. Houston UNDER 130 |
Top |
59-63 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Connecticut Huskies (663) and the Houston Cougars (664). THE SITUATION: UConn (10-7) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 61-55 loss at Villanova on Saturday as a 9.5-point underdog. Houston (15-4) has won two straight games as well as eight of their last nine games after their 65-54 upset win at Wichita State on Saturday as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. UConn made 49% of their shots in their losing effort to the Wildcats in that game which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. Yet the Huskies are only making 40.3% of their shots still over their last five games. They stay on the road where they are making just 41.8% of their shots which is resulting in just 64.7 PPG. UConn has played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Houston has played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road. And while the Cougars have only allowed 25 and 20 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total at home after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in at least two straight games. Houston returns home where they are holding their visitors to just 35.2% shooting from the field which is resulting in just 60.9 PPG. The Cougars are improving on the defensive end of the court as they have held their last five opponents to just 38.2% shooting. But Houston is not as dynamic on offense when playing on their home court this season. The Cougars are 13th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while posting an effective field goal percentage of 49.5% — but when playing at home, their effective field goal percentage drops to 49.1% while their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency plummets to just 64th in the nation. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: UConn has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 straight road games Under the Total when getting the points as the underdog. 5* CBB Thursday ESPNU Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Connecticut Huskies (663) and the Houston Cougars (664). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-22-20 |
North Dakota State v. South Dakota State -1 |
Top |
73-78 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (824) minus the points versus the North Dakota State Bison (823). THE SITUATION: South Dakota State (14-8) saw their five-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 99-84 loss at South Dakota as a 2.5-point underdog. North Dakota State (13-6) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 83-74 win over North Dakota as an 8-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JACKRABBITS MINUS THE POINTS: South Dakota State allowed the Coyotes to make 64.4% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed all season. The Jackrabbits do have the lowest opponent’s effective field goal percentage in Summit League play at 48.3% — and they are 2nd in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. South Dakota State is 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games after a point spread loss. Now they return home where they are a perfect 11-0 this season with an average winning margin of +19.8 PPG. The Jackrabbits hold their guests to just 38.8% shooting from the field which has resulted in only 62.4 PPG. South Dakota State was expected to take a couple of steps back this season after the graduation of their senior leader Mike Daum. Head coach T.J. Otzlelberger than departed to Las Vegas to take the UNLV head coaching gig and All-Summit League shooting guard David Jenkins decided to transfer to the Runnin’ Rebels to join him in Vegas as well. But assistant head coach Eric Henderson has maintained the consistency with this basketball since, despite losing 83% of their scoring from last season, they are leading the Summit League on Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Jackrabbits are 10th in the nation with a 54.9% effective field goal percentage — and that mark rises to a 61.3% mark in conference play. South Dakota State has made at least 50% of their shots in seven straight games — and they are averaging 82.2 PPG on their home court while making 50% of their shots. The Jackrabbits are a decisive 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. South Dakota State has also covered the point spread in 7 straight home games as the favorite. North Dakota State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a game where they scored at least 80 points. This Bison team returns ten of their eleven regular contributors that lost to Duke in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. But this team was just 9-7 in Summit League play last season before their depth helped them win the conference tournament to seize the automatic tournament bid. They then defeated a mediocre NC Central team in the four-four in Dayton before getting clobbered by the Blue Devils. This team lacks a superstar and relies on their depth to keep them competitive. They are just 5-5 on the road this season where they are making only 39.6% of their shots. North Dakota State is just 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 games on the road as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em. This team is also just 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: North Dakota State’s best win was against East Tennessee State that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks as the 57th best team in the nation. Their next best win was a 2-point win at home against South Dakota that Pomeroy ranks as the 187th in the country. The Bison have a very bad loss at home to Utah Valley who Pomeroy ranks at 276th in the nation. South Dakota State has an impressive 7-point loss earlier in the season at Arizona. Lay the points with the Jackrabbits. 25* CBB Summit League Game of the Month with the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (824) minus the points versus the North Dakota State Bison (823). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-22-20 |
Grizzlies +7 v. Celtics |
Top |
95-119 |
Loss |
-108 |
7 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (543) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (544). THE SITUATION: Memphis (20-23) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 126-116 upset loss at home to New Orleans as a 3-point favorite. Boston (28-14) snapped their three-game losing streak on Monday with their 139-107 upset win at home over the Los Angeles Lakers as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: The Celtics stepped up to play one of their best games of the season on national television on Monday. They shot 55.9% from the field which was their best shooting mark in their last twenty games. But Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. The Celtics also held the Lakers to just 43.8% shooting from the field which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five contests. But Boston has still allowed their last five opponents to shoot 49.1% overall. An emotional letdown is like for this team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory by at least 10 points. The Celtics have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored — and they are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. This is another expected higher-scoring game tonight — and the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Boston stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 8 games as a favorite, the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests. Memphis allowed the Pelicans to make 47.7% of their shots on Monday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four contests — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. But the bigger aberration in that game was that the Grizzlies made only 44.7% of their shots which was their lowest shooting mark in their last fourteen games. Memphis has still shot 48.5% from the field over their last five games — and while they rank 16th in the NBA in Offensive Rating, they have raised their mark to 6th in the league over their last fifteen games. They have scored at least 110 points in fourteen straight contests — and they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after scoring at least 110 points in at least two straight games. Rookie Ja Morant looks to be an emerging superstar in the league for years to come — but what makes this team dangerous is the combination of him with Jalen Jackson, Jr., Dillon Brooks, and Brandon Clarke which gives this team one of the most promising core group of younger players in the NBA. Rookie head coach Taylor Jenkins has also pushed all the right buttons for this team — the Grizzlies outscored their opponents by +61 net points in the 3rd quarter during their recent seven-game winning streak. The Grizzlies have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Memphis has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a game where at least 230 combined points were scored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in expected higher scoring games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Celtics saw the return of Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown on Monday to help jettison them to victory but Brown is questionable for this game with an ankle. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 trips to Boston to face the Celtics. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with the Memphis Grizzlies (543) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-20 |
Illinois v. Purdue -5.5 |
Top |
79-62 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (606) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (605). THE SITUATION: Purdue (10-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 57-50 loss at Maryland on Saturday as a 6.5-point underdog. Illinois (13-5) has won four games in a row with their 75-71 win over Northwestern on Saturday as a 12.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Purdue should respond with a strong effort as they are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. This team has been a much different team at home than on the road this season. The Boilermakers are 8-1 at Mackey Arena this season where they are outscoring their opponents by +22.8 PPG. Purdue has won fifteen straight home games in Big Ten play — and they have outscored the five major conference opponents they have hosted this season by +24 points per 100 possessions. The Boilermakers are an outstanding defensive team — they rank 6th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held six of their opponents to under 50 points. Purdue has held their guests to just 36.8% shooting which has translated into only 54.6 PPG. Scoring has been the problem for this Boilermakers team when playing on the road. They made only 35.7% of their shots in their loss at Maryland on Saturday. But Purdue ranks 10th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home — and that has helped them also post the top home-court rating in Adjusted Efficiency this season. The Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on their home court — and they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. Illinois comes off a 50% shooting mark against the Wildcats which was the best shooting mark in their last five games. But the Fighting Illini are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. And while the Illini have won five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. This Illinois team will likely struggle to score baskets tonight against this outstanding Boilermakers defense as they rank just 10th in the Big Ten in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Illini are 11-1 at home this season but just 2-4 away from home where they are being outscored by -6.0 PPG. Illinois makes only 40.6% of their shots on the road which translates into just 65.5 PPG. The Illini are also making only 39.5% of their shots over their last five contests. Illinois ranks 256th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 44.9% due to their low 3-point shooting percentage of 25.3% which is 331st in the nation. Nailing 3-pointers will be very tough in Mackey Arena where the Boilermakers are holding their visitors to just 26.2% shooting from behind the arc which is the 22nd lowest mark in the nation. Additionally, the Fighting Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Purdue will also be looking to avenge a 63-37 loss at Illinois back on January 5th in a game where they made only 15 of their 60 shots from the field. The Boilermakers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games as the favorite. The Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Purdue Boilermakers (606) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (605). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-20-20 |
Weber State v. Portland State -4 |
Top |
76-92 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Portland State Vikings (882) minus the points versus the Weber State Wildcats (881). THE SITUATION: Portland State (9-10) has won two of their last three games with their 82-76 win over Idaho State on Saturday as a 7.5-point favorite. Weber State (6-11) snapped their three-game losing streak on Thursday with their 76-68 victory at Idaho State as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Portland State is 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a straight-up win. And while the Vikings have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Portland State is led by Holland Woods who might be the best point guard in the Big Sky Conference. He leads an offense that tops the conference in Adjusted Efficiency. The Vikings also live off their offensive glass as they rank 7th in the nation by pulling down 37.1% of their missed shots. Portland State should get plenty of second-chance opportunities against this Weber State team that is 11th in the Big Sky by allowing their opponents to rebound 32.8% of their missed shots. The Vikings stay at home where they are 5-2 with an average winning margin of +12.1 PPG. Portland State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Weber State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win. The Wildcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a point spread victory including failing to cover the point spread in five straight after cover the spread. It has been a disappointing season for head coach Randy Rahe in the thirteenth season with the program. The Wildcats have a good backcourt consisting of Jerrick Harding and Cody John but they are not getting much help in the frontcourt. They stay on the road for a third straight game where they are just 2-8 with an average losing margin of -13.1 PPG. Weber State makes only 40.9% of their shots on the road — and they allow their home hosts to make 50.1% of their shots from the field. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Weber State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games as an underdog. Portland Sate has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 3.5 to 6 points. Look for the Vikings to overwhelm this struggling Wildcats team. 25* CBB Big Sky Game of the Month with the Portland State Vikings (882) minus the points versus the Weber State Wildcats (881). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-18-20 |
Utah State v. Boise State +2 |
Top |
83-88 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (822) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (821). THE SITUATION: Boise State (11-8) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 85-78 upset loss at Air Force on Wednesday as a 1-point favorite. Utah State (14-5) snapped a three-game losing streak last Saturday with their 80-70 win at home over Nevada as a 9.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Boise State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. Head coach Leon Rice has five of his top six scorers from last season return from a group that finished a disappointing 13-20 — that was the first time in the last seven seasons that the Broncos did not register at least 20 wins. This Boise State team expects to return to the postseason. All three of their most recent losses were on the road — now they return home where they are 8-1 this season with a signature victory over BYU. The Broncos are outscoring their guests by +21.8 PPG due to a prolific offensive attack that scores 83.8 PPG with a 47.9% field goal percentage. They also hold their visitors to just 39.3% shooting from the field. Boise State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games as an underdog. The Broncos do a great job of protecting their defensive glass as they rank 14th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 22.8% offensive rebounding rate. Utah State played one of their best games of the season last Saturday to end their losing streak as they made 46.3% of their shots while holding the Wolf Pack to just 39% shooting from the field — both those marks were the best statistical performances in their last four games. But the Aggies have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Expectations are very high for this team that returned four starters from last year’s 28-7 team that made the Big Dance after winning the Mountain West Conference tournament. But this team has struggled away from home with a 5-4 record which includes recent losses at UNLV and the Air Force. Utah State is making only 41.8% of their shots when on the road which has resulted in only 67.8 PPG. Their effective field goal percentage of 44.1% when on the road ranks a disappointing 282nd in the nation — and they are making only 26.5% of their 3-pointers on the road which is 317th in the country. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Utah State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games as a road favorite. Their struggles on offense extend beyond shooting poorly when on the road. The Aggies are making just 39.3% of their shots in conference play — and their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 98.9 against MWC foes is just 9th in the conference. Furthermore, interior defense has been a concern for this group as they rank 8th in the MWC by allowing their opponents to make 50.5% of their shots inside the arc.
FINAL TAKE: This is not a good matchup for Utah State. Boise State averages 8 made 3-pointers per game — and the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games against teams who make at least 8 shots from downtown per game. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB ESPNU Game of the Year with the Boise State Broncos (822) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (821). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-17-20 |
Bulls v. 76ers -7 |
Top |
89-100 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (532) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (531). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (26-16) has won three of their last five games after their 117-106 win over Brooklyn on Wednesday as a 7-point favorite. Chicago (15-27) has won two of their last three games with their 115-106 win over Washington on Wednesday as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bulls made 50.6% of their shots again the Wizards which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last eleven games. Chicago is likely due for a letdown now. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games are a straight-up win — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory on their home court. The Bulls have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. Now this team goes on the road where they are just 7-13 this season. Chicago is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games as an underdog. The Bulls have also failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 49 road games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Defense had been the calling card for this team under head coach Jim Boylen despite the players on this team appearing to not appreciate his coaching style — but they have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.9% of their shots while ranking 24th in the NBA in Defensive Rating over that span. Perhaps Boylen is having his team begin to sacrifice defense for offense at this point of the season? But while the Bulls’ Offensive Rating ranking 20th in the league over their last five games is a bump up over their 27th ranking this year, the drop in defense has been more significant considering that they rank 9th in NBA in Defensive Rating. Chicago has still lost seven of their last ten games. And they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Philadelphia covered the point spread in just their second game in their last seven contests on Wednesday — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The 76ers are very tough to beat at home where they are now 19-2 with an average winning margin of +9.8 PPG. The Sixers make 48% of their shots at home which has generated 111.9 PPG. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The 76ers are still without Joel Embiid who is out with a dislocated finger but his absence opens up playing time for Al Horford who has not been a good fit for this team when sharing playing time on the court with Embiid.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. Chicago is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Look for the Sixers to pull away in this game. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Philadelphia 76ers (532) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (531). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-16-20 |
California v. USC UNDER 133 |
Top |
56-88 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (693) and the USC Trojans (694). THE SITUATION: California (8-8) has won two straight games with their 61-58 upset win at home against Washington on Saturday as a 6.5-point underdog. USC (13-3) has won seven of their last eight games after their 74-63 upset win at UCLA last Saturday as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trojans shot 57.4% from the field in their upset win over the Bruins which was their best shooting effort of the season. USC also held UCLA to just 37.9% shooting with that defensive performance being more indicative of their level of play since they have held their last five opponents to just 37.3% shooting from the field. USC has played an eye-popping 15 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where they made 57% of their shots while holding their opponent to no better than 43% shooting from the field. Additionally, the Trojans have played 29 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now after playing their last three games on the road, USC returns home to make their Pac-12 debut in front of their home fans this season. The Trojans have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total after playing their last three games on the road. The Under is 35-16-1 in USC’s last 52 games at home — and the Under is 21-8-1 in their last 30 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 9 home games in conference play, the Trojans have played 8 of these games Under the Total. California has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win over a Pac-12 opponent — and they have played 10 straight games on the road Under the Total after playing a game at home as an underdog. And while the Golden Bears have covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their last two games. Cal looks to build off their best defensive performance of the season as they held the Huskies to just 29.5% shooting from the field. But now the Golden Bears go back on the road where they are scoring just 56.0 PPG while making only 36.2% of their shots. Cal ranks 353rd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of just 35.3% in their three true road games. And over their last five games, the Golden Bears are making just 39.6% of their shots. Cal has played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total. The Golden Bears have also played 35 of their last 55 games Under the Total as an underdog including the Under going 3-0-1 in their last 4 games when getting the points.
FINAL TAKE: Cal has played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 20 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (693) and the USC Trojans (694). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-16-20 |
Texas State v. Louisiana-Monroe +6 |
Top |
64-63 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (646) plus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (645). THE SITUATION: Louisiana-Monroe (6-10) has lost three straight games with their 84-62 loss at Georgia State as a 12.5-point underdog last Saturday. Texas State (10-8) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 82-57 win over Appalachian State as a 7-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: UL-Monroe allowed the Panthers to nail 57.7% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort of the season. The Warhawks should respond with a stronger effort as they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Furthermore, UL-Monroe has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing at least two straight games to Sun Belt Conference opponents. Now after playing their last three games on the road, the Warhawks return home where they are 6-3 this season with an average winning margin of +9.2 PPG. UL-Monroe should play better on defense as they limit their visitors to just 40% shooting this season. The Warhawks have covered the point spread in a decisive 38 of their last 60 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game — and this includes them covering the point spread in twelve of these last seventeen situations. UL-Monroe has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games as a dog getting up to 6 points. Texas State nailed 53.8% of their shots last Saturday against the Mountaineers which was their second-best shooting effort all season. The Bobcats have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Now Texas State goes back on the road where they are just 2-6 with an average losing margin of -4.1 PPG. A concern for this team is finding offense after their three-year starter on the wing in Nigel Pearson. The Bobcats are making only 41.6% of their shots on the road — and they have made just 41.3% of their shots in their last five games despite their nice shooting performance on Saturday. Much of the Texas State offense comes from getting to the free-throw line — they rank 12th in the nation with a Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 41.6%. Getting these calls is not as reliable when playing in hostile environments. The Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a favorite. Additionally, Texas State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less.
FINAL TAKE: The Bobcats will have success forcing turnovers as they rank 2nd in the Sun Belt by forcing turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions — and the Warhawks are 10th in the conference by turning it over in 22.2% of their conference possessions. But UL-Monroe should be able to make this up to stay competitive with their 3-point shooting. The Warhawks are 2nd in the Sun Belt by making 39% of their shots from behind the arc — and they are 22nd in the nation by nailing 41.7% of their 3-pointers at home. Texas State is 287th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 36.0% of their 3-point shots. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Underdog of the Month with the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (646) plus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (645). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-15-20 |
St. John's v. Providence -5 |
Top |
58-63 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
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At 8:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Providence Friars (838) minus the points versus the St. John’s Red Storm (837). THE SITUATION: Providence (10-7) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Friday with their 70-58 loss at home to Butler as a 1-point underdog. St. John’s (12-5) snapped a three-game losing streak last Saturday with their 74-67 win at home to DePaul as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FRIARS MINUS THE POINTS: Providence made only 31.7% of their shots against the Bulldogs which was their second-worst shooting effort of the season. They also allowed Butler to make 55.6% of their shots which was the highest mark any opponent has shot against them all season. This was probably the worst overall effort for Ed Cooley’s team all season which was a disappointment because they had registered quality wins against Texas, Georgetown, DePaul, and then Marquette before the loss to the Bulldogs. This team returned all five starters from last year’s team that made the NIT. Expect a strong effort tonight as the Friars ave bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home. This veteran group needs to get back to sharing the basketball after managing only 8 assists on Friday — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to generate more than 9 assists in their last game. Providence stays at home where they are 7-2 this season with an average winning margin of +17.4 PPG. They play tough defense at home by limiting their opponents to just 39.1% shooting which translates into just 60.8 PPG. The Friars rank 17th in the nation in Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin when playing on their home court. St. John’s has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home against a fellow Big East rival. The Red Storm made 40.3% of their shots which seems pretty low — but it was actually the best shooting effort in their last five games. St. John’s is one of the worst shooting teams in the nation — they rank 308th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 45.6%. They have made only 36.8% of their shots over their last five games which has contributed to them playing six straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing at least three straight Unders. The Red Storm will be playing in just their third true road game tonight — they are 351st in the nation on the road with an effective field goal percentage of 37.6% while making only 17.1% of their 3-point shots on the road which is 352nd in the nation. St. John’s are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road. This Red Storm team compensates for this poor shooting with a full-court press under first-year head coach Mike Anderson. His “forty minutes of hell” approach has led the Red Storm to 18th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.2% of their opponent’s possessions. The Friars are vulnerable as they turn the ball over in 19.0% of their possessions (140th in the nation) but that mark has dipped to a 17.5% mark in their four conference games. Providence does force turnovers as well at a 23.0% rate which is 36th in the nation. The Friars should seize an advantage in the possession battle on the offensive boards as they pull down 32.6% of their missed shots which is 57th in the nation — and St. John’s allows their opponents to pull down 31.2% of their missed shots which is 294th in the nation. The Red Storm have been out-rebounded by at least 7 boards in four straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after being out-rebounded by at least six rebounds in three straight games.
FINAL TAKE: St. John is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Providence has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Wednesday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Providence Friars (838) minus the points versus the St. John’s Red Storm (837). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-15-20 |
Nets v. 76ers -7 |
Top |
106-117 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
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At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (502) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (501). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (25-16) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last eight contests after their 101-95 loss at Indiana on Monday as a 3.5-point underdog. Brooklyn (18-20) had won their last two games before losing last night at home to Utah by a 118-107 score as a 3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia has struggled as of late as they have only covered the point spread once their last six games — but they have then covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Sixers have been without Joel Embiid who is out with a dislocated finger — but his absence gives Al Horford more of an opportunity who has not been a good fit when playing on the floor at the same time as Embiid. The stronger explanation for those six losses over their last eight games is that they all occurred on the road where Philadelphia is just 7-14 this season. Now the 76ers return home where they are a dominant 18-2 with an average winning margin of +9.7 PPG. The Sixers are scoring 111.6 PPG at home while making 47.8% of their shots from the field. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Philadelphia is also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. The Nets have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss. And in their last 19 games when playing without a day of rest, the Nets have failed to cover the point spread 13 times. This team has seen Kyrie Irving return to the court after he missed 26 games to an injury. But questions remain if Irving elevates or gets in the way of his teammates — Brooklyn was 13-13 while he was injured but just 5-7 with him healthy and in the mix. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 7-12 while making just 43.1% of their shots. The Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is looking to avenge a 109-89 upset loss at Brooklyn back on December 15th as a 4-point underdog. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games at home when avenging a loss. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Nets. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Game of the Month with the Philadelphia 76ers (502) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-10-20 |
Maryland v. Iowa +2 |
Top |
49-67 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (838) plus the points versus the Maryland Terrapins (837). THE SITUATION: Iowa (10-5) has lost their last two games after their 76-70 upset loss at Nebraska on Tuesday as an 8-point favorite. Maryland (13-2) has won three in a row after their 67-55 win at home over Ohio State on Tuesday as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss on the road. The Hawkeyes have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. Iowa played one of their worst games of the season against the Cornhuskers. They allowed Nebraska to make 49.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. They also shot just 41.6% from the field which was the worst offensive effort in their last eight contests. The Hawkeyes made only 4 of their 33 shots (12.1%) from 3-point land — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to make at least 20% of their shots from behind the arc in their last game. Iowa made it to the second round of the NCAA Tournament but suffered a tough blow last month when Jordan Bohanan decided to take a medical redshirt this season to fully recover from the hip surgery he had in the offseason. While the loss of Bohanan probably lowers the ceiling regarding the potential of the team, the Hawkeyes are likely still an NCAA Tournament team again this season given their depth along with two very good players in junior Luka Garza and sophomore Jon Weiskamp who is a likely future NBA player. Iowa has defeated Texas Tech and Cincinnati this season on neutral courts while also recording a nice win at home against Minnesota. The Hawkeyes are 6-1 at home this season where they are outscoring their opponents by +18.3 PPG due to their potent offense that scores 83.6 PPG on 48% shooting from the field. Head coach Fran McCaffrey has built an offensive juggernaut in Iowa City as this team ranks 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. They are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Maryland comes off their biggest win of the season against a Buckeyes team that was ranked number one in the nation earlier in the season. They held Ohio State to just 31.3% shooting from the field in that game in what was the best defensive effort in their last six contests. But the Terrapins have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after a double-digit win at home. Maryland has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two games in a row against Big Ten opponents. And while they have covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in their last two contests. The Terrapins also reached the second round of the Big Dance last season but expectations are higher for this team with all but one of their contributors from that team back this season. However, the departure of big man Bruno Fernando to the NBA has left a void with Maryland missing his 13.0 PPG, 10.6 RPG, and 2.0 APG. The lack of a consistently reliable scorer in the post has held back this team at times. They have been riddled with slow starts which have them living on the edge before senior point guard Anthony Cowan bails them out. They have been much too loose with the basketball as they are turning the ball over in 19.5% of their possessions in Big Ten play. This is also not a great shooting basketball team as they rank just 227th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 48.0% — and they are making just 38.2% of their shots on the road. Furthermore, now after playing their last three games at home in College Park, the Terrapins go on the road for just their third true road game in a hostile environment — and they have lost their first two road games at Seton Hall and Penn State. Shooting has been the biggest problem for this team in those games as they rank just 303rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road due to their terrible 36.2% effective field goal percentage in those games which is the worst mark of all Division I teams. Maryland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Terrapins have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 4 road games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 34 road games as a favorite of 3 points or less.
FINAL TAKE: Shot volume may make the difference in this game. Maryland was outshot by the Buckeyes in their last contest by a 67 to 46 margin — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after being outshot by at least 20 in their last game. Iowa outshot Nebraska by a 77 to 53 margin in their loss on Tuesday — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after outshooting their last opponent by at least 20. 25* CBB Friday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (838) plus the points versus the Maryland Terrapins (837). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-09-20 |
Blazers v. Wolves UNDER 226 |
Top |
102-116 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (505) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (506). THE SITUATION: Portland (16-22) Portland (16-22) has won two of their last three games with their 101-99 upset win at Toronto as a 2.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Minnesota (14-22) saw their two-game winning streak on Tuesday with their 119-112 loss at Memphis as a 4.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Defense has been for the Trail Blazers this season but they stepped up on Tuesday by holding the Raptors to just 36.5% shooting from the field. With Rodney Hood on the shelf with an Achilles’ injury, his absence allows head coach Terry Stotts to deploy more defensive-friendly lineups. But missing Hood over the last month takes away from Portland’s offensive attack. They are scoring 3.4 PPG less over their last five games versus their 112.0 PPG season average. They are playing their fifth straight game on the road tonight — and they abbe played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing their fourth game on the road in the last seven days. The Trail Blazers have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total — and they have played 7 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, Portland has played 6 straight road games Under the Total as a favorite. Minnesota will look to play better on the defensive end of the court tonight after surrendering 68 points in the second half including a whopping 37 points in the final 12 minutes in their loss to the Grizzlies. Head coach Ryan Saunders had his team playing much better defense as of late. While the Timberwolves rank 15th in the NBA in Defensive Rating, they are 3rd best in the league over their last five games even after their dismal second half effort on Tuesday. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. The T-Wolves return home where they are making only 41.2% of their shots which has translated into 108.5 PPG. Minnesota will likely be without their best offensive player tonight as well with Karl Anthony-Towns listed as questionable with his knee injury that has kept him out the last eleven games. Over their last five games with Anthony-Towns, the Timberwolves are scoring only 105.4 PPG on 44.9% shooting from the field — and their 26th Offensive Rating are a few notches below their 23rd ranking overall for the season. Minnesota has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Timberwolves have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota will be looking to avenge a 113-106 loss at Portland back on December 21st. The Timberwolves have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Northwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (505) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-07-20 |
Providence v. Marquette -5 |
Top |
81-80 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Marquette Golden Eagles (602) minus the points versus the Providence Friars (601). THE SITUATION: Marquette (11-3) has won six of their last seven games with their 71-60 win over Villanova as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Providence (9-6) has won three in a row as well with their 66-65 win at DePaul as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Marquette should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win at home over a conference rival. The Golden Eagles defeating the Wildcats despite making only 37% of their shots which was their worst shooting effort of the season. This team can overcome bad shooting performances because they get plenty of easy ones at the free-throw line — they rank 8th in the nation with a Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 42.5% which is 8th best in the nation. The Friars will put them on the free-throw line tonight as they rank 231st in the nation with an opponent’s FTA/FGA ratio of 34.3%. Marquette only made 5 of their 21 shots from behind the arc for a low 23.8% shooting mark — and that is far below their 40.8% shooting percentage from 3-point land which is 3rd best in the nation led by their superstar guard Markus Howard. The Golden Eagles are a perfect 8-0 at home with an average winning margin of +20.7 PPG. They are playing much better defense under head coach Steve Wojciechowski than in past seasons — they are holding their visitors to just 34.9% shooting which has resulted in 60.0 PPG. Marquette has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games as a favorite. Providence has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread victory. Expectations were high for head coach Ed Cooley’s team this season that returned all five starters from a team that missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time in six seasons. They have registered their three best wins of the season in their current winning streak with victories against Texas, Georgetown, and DePaul — but they have also endured bad losses to Long Beach State, Penn, and Charleston. The Friars have struggled on the road where they are just 2-5 while being outscored by -8.6 PPG. Providence makes only 36.4% of their shots when playing on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Friars have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after playing a game where they were an underdog on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Providence has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Marquette has been bolstered with the strong play of Utah State transfer Kobe McEwan to complement Howard as a second scoring threat. The Golden Eagles are top-40 in both Adjusted Offensive and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. 25* CBB Tuesday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Marquette Golden Eagles (602) minus the points versus the Providence Friars (601). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-05-20 |
Purdue v. Illinois -2 |
Top |
37-63 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Illinois Fighting Illini (846) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (845). THE SITUATION: Illinois (9-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 76-56 loss at Michigan State on Thursday as a 10-point underdog. Purdue (9-5) has won their last two games with their 83-78 win against Minnesota at home in double overtime as a 7-point favorite on January 2nd.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING ILLINI MINUS THE POINTS: Illinois shot just 29.3% from the field against the Spartans in what was their worst shooting effort of the season. Illinois has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. This team returned eight of their top nine scorers from last year’s team that had just a 12-21 record last season. But they also added a 7’0 290-lb freshman in Kofi Cockburn who has helped the team rank 3rd in the nation by pulling down 39.3% of their missed shots. The Illini return home where they are 8-1 with an average winning margin of +24.5 PPG. Illinois is making 51.6% of their shots on their home court which is generation an 86.7 PPG scoring average. They also limit their visitors to just 41.1% shooting. The Illini are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home — and they are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games when laying the points. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games after a win at home against a Big Ten rival. This team lost three starters from last year’s team with the biggest hole being the graduation of Carsen Edwards that has left this team without a reliable go-to scorer. The Boilermakers go back on the road where they are just 2-4 while scoring just 60.0 PPG because they are making only 36% of their shots. Purdue really struggles to make baskets away from home — they rank 314th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of just 41.5% when playing on the road. The Boilermakers connect on only 24.7% of their 3-pointers on the road which is 325th in the nation. They are also making a mere 52.3% of their free throws in true road games which is 343rd in the nation. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record. Together, these team trends produce our specific 50-14-2 ATS combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: Purdue’s best win this season was at home against a Virginia team who does not look nearly as good as advertised when entering the season. The Boilermakers also lost on the road at Nebraska by 14 points to a Cornhuskers team that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks as just the 152nd best team in the nation. Pomeroy places Illinois at 44th in the nation who has a signature win at home against Michigan. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as the underdog. 25* CBB Sunday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Illinois Fighting Illini (846) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (845). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-02-20 |
SE Missouri State v. Austin Peay OVER 142 |
Top |
63-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (669) and the Austin Peay Governors (670). THE SITUATION: SE Missouri State (4-9) snapped their five-game losing streak on Sunday with their 74-59 win over Missouri Baptist. Austin Peay (6-7) has lost two of their last three games with their 78-48 loss at Georgia on Monday as a 13-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Governors shot just 26.6% from the field in their loss to the Bulldogs — but they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after failing to make at least 33% of their shots in their last game. Austin Peay has also played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, the Governors have play 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after failing to score at least 50 points in their last game. Austin Peay returns home where they are shooting 52.5% from the field which has translated into 90.6 PPG in their five games on their home court. The Governors have an effective field goal percentage of 59.2% at home which is the 27th best mark in the nation. Austin Peay has played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total at home — and they have also played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Governors do struggle on the defensive end of the court as they have allowed five of their last six opponents make at least 50.7% of their shots. Over their last five games, Austin Peay is allowing 75.6 PPG with those five opponents shooting 51.3%. SE Missouri State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. And while the Redhawks have only covered the point spread once in their last five boarded games, they have then played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. SE Missouri State opens conference play having played 25 of their last 36 games Over the Total against Ohio Valley foes. They have also played 10 of their last 14 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Redhawks are allowing their home hosts to make 47.3% of their shots — and they have also allowed their last five opponents to shoot 47.4% from the field.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams that struggle on defense with SE Missouri State ranking 276th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and Austin Peay ranking 321st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (669) and the Austin Peay Governors (670). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-26-19 |
Grizzlies +6 v. Thunder |
Top |
110-97 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (535) plus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (536). THE SITUATION: Memphis (11-20) has lost three of their last four games with their 145-115 loss to San Antonio as a 1-point underdog on Monday. Oklahoma City (15-14) has won four straight games — as well as nine of their last twelve contests — with their 118-112 win over the Los Angeles Clippers as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: The holiday break may have come at the wrong time for this Thunder team that had been on a roll. Oklahoma City has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with at least three days of rest. While the Thunder have been surging on the offensive end of the court, they have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.3% of their shots. Oklahoma City gets Danilo Gallinari back on the court tonight after he was out with an injury but Hamidou Diallo remains out with an elbow injury. The Thunder tend to underachieve against the lesser teams in the league as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage at 40% or less. Oklahoma City has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Memphis is a dangerous underdog behind rookie phenom Ja Morant — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Their last two victories were upset wins over Sacramento and Miami. Head coach Taylor Jenkins should have had the attention of his players this week after the Grizzlies played their worst defensive game of the season by allowing the Spurs to nail 67.4% of their shots on Monday. Memphis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 60% of their shots. The Grizzlies have also rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss. Memphis’ shooting should help them keep this game close as they are making 47.5% of their shots over their last five games.
FINAL TAKE: The Grizzlies will be looking to avenge a 126-122 loss to the Thunder back on December 18th where they blew a 24-point lead. The Thunder have been living dangerously as they rallied from a 26-point deficit to Chicago in their previous game before pulling out the win. Memphis has covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams. Don’t be surprised if Oklahoma City is listless for much of this game since their sloppy play has not been punished as of late. 25* NBA Western Conference Underdog of the Month with the Memphis Grizzlies (535) plus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-19 |
Houston +1 v. Washington |
Top |
75-71 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (827) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Washington Huskies (828) in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic. THE SITUATION: Houston (10-3) reached the finals of this holiday tournament with their 70-59 win over Georgia Tech on Monday as a 7.5-point favorite. Washington (10-2) joined them with their 72-61 victory over the host team in Hawai’i by a 72-61 score as a 7-point favorite. This game is being played in Honolulu on the Rainbow Warriors home court.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Houston has not allowed more than 63 points in seven straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 65 points in at least five contests. Head coach Kelvin Sampson lost four starters from last year’s Sweet Sixteen team — but six contributors did return from that club. Sampson has built a strong program in Houston that is built on discipline, defense, and rebounding. For the first time since taking over this basketball team, the frontcourt may be a strength for Sampson with 6’8 junior Brison Gresham and 6’10 senior Chris Harris Jr. The Cougars out-rebounded the Yellow Jackets by +17 boards on Monday while pulling down 16 offensive rebounds. This team is second in the nation by rebounding 40.7% of their missed shots — and this is an area of vulnerability for the Huskies as they allow their opponents to rebound 28.0% of their missed shots which is 168th in the nation. The X-factor for this team is the transfer from Kansas in Quentin Grimes who started in all 36 games for the Jayhawks as a freshman. The former McDonald’s All-American scored 26 points against Georgia Tech. This Cougars’ offense is dependent on their athleticism which translates well when playing away from home as they rank 13th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road or neutral courts. Houston has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Washington lost four starters from last year’s NCAA Tournament team — but head coach Mike Hopkins has two McDonald’s All-American freshmen in Isaiah Stewart and Jaden McDaniels. Hopkins deploys a similar 2-3 matchup zone similar to the Syracuse system where he served as an assistant. They held the Rainbow Warriors to just 28.4% shooting — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing their last opponent to make at least 33% of their shots. This Washington team thrives inside the arc where they are making 55.4% of their shots which is 20th in the nation. That number does drop to them making 51.6% of their 2-point shots when playing on the road or neutral courts — and they will be challenged by this Cougars defense that is 15th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 41.3% shooting inside the arc. Washington has covered the point spread in their last three games as the favorite — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in their last three games as the favorite. The Huskies have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games playing on a neutral court with the Total set in the 135 to 139.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Washington’s best win was their opening game of the season when they defeated Baylor — they have since lost to their best two opponents in Tennessee and Gonzaga. Houston’s best win was against South Carolina with their three losses to BYU, Oregon, and Oklahoma State. I like how this Cougars team is developing and their style of play is both a good fit for a neutral court as well as when matching up against the Huskies. 25* CBB Diamond Head Classic Game of the Year with the Houston Cougars (827) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Washington Huskies (828). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-25-19 |
Clippers v. Lakers -2 |
Top |
111-106 |
Loss |
-101 |
20 h 50 m |
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At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (530) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (529). THE SITUATION: The Lakers (24-6) have lost three straight games after their 128-104 upset loss at home to Denver on Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite. The Clippers (22-10) have lost two of their last three games — as well as three of their last five contests — with their 118-112 loss at Oklahoma City as a 1.5-point underdog. While the Lakers are the technical home team home for this game, the Staples Center is the home arena for both these teams.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINT(S): LeBron James did not play on Sunday in the loss to the Nuggets. The Lakers allowed Denver to make 48.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. The Lakers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Lakers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing a game where at least 220 combined points were scored. The loss to Denver came on the heels of an 111-104 loss at Milwaukee where the Lakers fell behind by a 65-46 score by halftime. Perhaps the wear of completing a five-game road trip contributed to the Lakers’ poor start in that game — but give this team credit for fighting in the second half to make it close since giving up in that regular-season game would have been easy. This team seems to be wanting to make a statement with a refreshed LeBron James who got his first postseason off in what seems like forever. James has formed a deadly pick-and-roll combination with Anthony Davis who seems to determined to prove he is one of the best players in the league. Davis had missed the previous game which was a loss in Indiana which started this losing streak. But James and Davis looked prime to play in this national prime-time game on Christmas where the NBA captures the spotlight — the Lakers even held an impromptu practice on Tuesday to prepare for this contest. The team also has Kyle Kuzma finally back after he missed time with an injury — so this group is as close to full strength as they have been in a while. Kuzma is the wild card for this team because they become very tough to beat if he develops into a reliable third scoring threat after James and Davis. The Lakers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. The Lakers gave also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Clippers are struggling on the defensive end of the court with the 47.4% shooting percentage of the Thunder coming on the heels of Houston and San Antonio shooting 50.0% and 51.2% from the field respectively. The loss to the Rockets may have exposed a weakness of Doc Rivers team that will take some time to work out as they blew a 69-54 halftime lead. The Clippers were outscored by 11 points in the final five minutes of that game with Kawhi Leonard resorting to one-on-five hero ball but making only one of four shots during that span with zero assists and one turnover. The Clippers are perhaps getting lulled into too high scoring of games for what is optimal for their effectiveness (again, they have lost three of their last five contests). They have seen at least 215 combined points in their last six games — and they have scored at least 112 points in four straight games. But the Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games are scoring at least 110 points in their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 105 points in four straight games. Furthermore, while the Clippers are outscoring their opponents by +7.1 PPG this season, because they have allowed at least 109 points in three straight games, they fall into a historical “play-against” angle that has been 86% effective since 1996. Teams that outscore their opponents by at least +6.0 PPG while allowing at least 105 points in three straight games have then failed to cover the point spread in 31 of these last 36 situations going back to 1996. And while the Clippers average 115.7 PPG, the Lakers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams who score at least 110 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the opening night showdown between these two teams in the Staples Center that the Clippers upset the Lakers by a 112-102 score as a 3.5-point underdog. The Lakers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when motivated by revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (530) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (529). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-25-19 |
Bucks v. 76ers OVER 220.5 |
Top |
109-121 |
Win
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100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
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At 2:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (525) and the Philadelphia 76ers (526). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (27-4) has won three straight games with their 117-89 win over Indiana on Sunday as an 8.5-point favorite. Philadelphia (22-10) snapped a three-game losing streak by winning their last two games after their 125-109 win over Detroit on Monday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks win over the Pacers did not reach the 220 point total — but they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished below the number. Milwaukee shot just 42.3% from the field which was their second-lowest field goal percentage all season. The Bucks are still second in the NBA in Offensive Rating — and they lead the league in pace by averaging 105.2 possessions per contest. Milwaukee is scoring 119.8 PPG on the road while making a robust 48.1% of their shots. Their victory over the Pacers came on the heels of a 123-102 win in New York over the Knicks — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after two straight double-digit wins while also playing 13 of their last 16 road games Over the Total after winning two straight games by 10 or more points. Milwaukee has also played 34 of their last 52 games Over the Total after two straight victories by at least 20 points. The Bucks will be without point guard Eric Bledsoe for the sixth straight game — and they will miss his ball-hawking defensive skills. Milwaukee is allowing their last five opponents (without Bledsoe) to make 42.9% of their shots which is a bit higher than their 41.4 opponent’s field goal percentage for the season. Now the Bucks go back on the road where the Over is 12-5-1 in their last 18 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Milwaukee does a fantastic job of protecting the rim with either Brook or Robin Lopez on the floor with Giannis Antetokounmpo — but this does come at the expense of allowing their opponents to launch 3s. The Bucks’ opponents are taking 38.7% of their shots from behind the arc which is the third-highest mark in the league. Philadelphia is 9th in the NBA by making 36.3% of their 3-point shots. The 76ers are scoring 110.8 PPG on their home court on 47.8% shooting from the field. Philly has played 4 straight games Over the Total at home — and the Over is 11-4-1 in their last 16 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Sixers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home as an underdog. But defense has been an issue for this team as they have allowed their last seven opponents to score at least 109 PPG. The Pistons were the second opponent in their last three games to nail at least 51.2% of their shots from the field. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 105 points in three straight games.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams since their 128-122 scoring fest in Philadelphia back on April 4th that the Bucks won. These two teams have played 5 straight meetings Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 encounters in Philadelphia Over the Total. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (525) and the Philadelphia 76ers (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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